textproduct: Grand Rapids
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Quiet Weather early this week then Storminess
DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
- Quiet Weather early this week then Storminess
Quiet weather pattern continues today as a clipper low tracks north of Lower Michigan, with little if any precipitation. We will have to watch model and radar trends to see if any light precip will reach the far northern forecast as suggested by some model guidance. Milder temperatures continue as the polar jet remains to the north until later this week.
An area of warm advection and isentropic ascent will bring rain Tuesday night and Wednesday with the highest chances across the northern forecast area. Thermal profiles of model forecast soundings show slight potential for freezing rain across the northern forecast area, but any impacts could be limited to a small area of higher elevations in Osceola and Clare Counties for late Tuesday night.
A second wave of low pressure late on Thursday and Friday could bring rain/mixed precipitation which should change to snow showers the weekend as cold air filters in on the back side of the low.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1143 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
Once again, fog potential is our main focus with no other impacts expected. We are starting to see some reduction in visibilities once again, with KMKG seeing the lowest visibilities so far in the IFR category. The other sites have gone down to 4-6SM. The worst conditions are likely to be in the first few hours at KMKG and KGRR where the most snow remains and the most melting has taken place. High clouds coming in and a slight increase in wind should limit the fog from getting too dense. This will obviously dissipate a couple of hours after sunrise.
Skies will go mostly clear again Monday morning as the high clouds move out from tonight. Some high based cumulus development will be possible, but will be VFR. Winds will pick up from the SSW by afternoon with gusts of 20-25 knots likely. Those will diminish toward sunset.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None. MARINE...None.
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