textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow to affect Southern Lower Michigan tonight and Sunday

- Additional chances for snow Monday through Wednesday

- Remaining cold for the foreseeable future

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

- Snow to affect Southern Lower Michigan tonight and Sunday

Southern Lower Michigan will be on the northern periphery of the significant winter storm moving across the country this weekend. Snow is spreading this direction from the Plains states and this should slide into the I-94 corridor this evening. The main mid level shortwave is well off to our southwest over Northern Mexico south of AZ/NM. This wave will streak to the northwest tonight and arrive in OH on Sunday. The associated surface low works northeast into WV by Sunday evening. Again we will be well on the north side of the low but we will be in an area near and beneath a couple jet structure at 250mb. This broad synoptic scale lift combined with a very deep DGZ (surface to 15,000 feet) should be sufficient to produce advisory level snow. The I-94 corridor is the area we are focused on the most. Some isolated 4 inches amounts are possible from BTL to the west, with some 5 inch totals possible to the east towards JXN. Some individual models are showing higher totals, but given the fact the surface low stays well to our south and there is not much of a warm air advection/isentropic lift component have decided to stay close to the values being produced from NBM/WPC guidance. The snow should taper off fairly quick Sunday evening. The heaviest snow looks to occur Sunday midday into Sunday afternoon as this is when deep lift materializes with the deep DGZ still in place. Expecting a marked increase in intensity during this time (11am-7pm Sunday). This is likely associated with the coupled upper jet and especially the right entrance region of the anticyclonically curved jet to the north over the Great Lakes. Main impact will be slippery travel.

- Additional chances for snow Monday through Wednesday

Winter will not let up this week as we have several shortwaves working through a general northwest upper flow. The main upper trough is overhead to just east of us and this will allow shortwave after shortwave to work southeast through Lower Michigan. We have a shortwave that moves in Sunday night, Monday night/Tuesday and another Tuesday night/Wednesday. What this means is we will see bouts of system snow that will flare a lake effect component that really does not shut off all week. The Monday night into Tuesday event may be the most impactful as it will come with both wind and snow. The moisture is a bit shallow, but the Tuesday morning commute will be affected. That morning given the cold temperatures and ongoing snow travel speeds will need slow down. Monday morning will likely not be much different. Winter is here to stay for awhile.

- Remaining cold for the freezable future

We would be remiss not to talk about the record cold of this morning. Record lows were set at MKG, AZO and BTL and GRR tied a record low. Those temperatures will come out with RER reports this evening and tonight. We are also on pace for record and near record cold highs today. The "winner" in the forecast area this morning was Leota up in Clare County bottoming out at 33 below.

We will remain cold right through the next 7 days. Normal highs are up around 30 with normal lows in the teens. Our highs this week will be closer to normal lows, that is in the teens. Lows will be in the single digits both above and below zero.

850mb temperatures are likely to remain in the -15c to -25c range which is quite cold.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1153 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions are ongoing this afternoon with ceilings in the 3-4 kft range at MKG, GRR, and AZO. Higher or indefinite ceilings are being seen inland as light easterly flow holds the lake effect stratocu to the west. Conditions deteriorate late tonight into Sunday as light snow moves over the area, with conditions at AZO, BTL, JXN, and possibly LAN reaching IFR. MVFR is favored at GRR being towards the edge of the precip shield, and VFR at MKG. Light snow will continue beyond the end of the TAF period.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 347 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Bitterly cold temperatures will continue to increase the ice forming on our rivers. An ice jam has developed along the Muskegon River near Bridgeton and Newaygo as of Saturday Afternoon. Observations suggest the ice jam is beginning to stabilize but water fluctuations may continue for at least the next 6-12 hours. The ongoing flood advisory has been extended until Sunday Evening across this area. Most other trouble spots for ice jams are already mostly or completely frozen over. However, river ice is notoriously unpredictable, and the rarity of our ongoing cold snap may create additional minor ice jam issues in places that don't typically have to deal with river ice. The bottom line is that when we expect very unusual cold conditions, it's not unreasonable to expect some very unusual river ice issues somewhere. Water levels around ice jams can go up/down much faster than usual, so anyone living near a river should pay extra attention to water levels over the next few days and have a plan to respond if conditions change quickly.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Sunday for MIZ066-067-071>074. MARINE...None.