textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers overnight into Saturday. Trend continues to the southeast

- Sunday showers remain possible

- Warm and mainly dry weather ahead

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- Showers overnight into Saturday. Trend continues to the southeast

Pattern remains fairly consistent with no major changes. Dry, easterly flow continues to dwindle down the moisture associated with the low slowly creeping northward tonight through tomorrow. The trend continues to shift the moisture to the southeast. Widespread quarter inch of rainfall is possible with upwards of a half an inch through south central Michigan. The thunder threat continues to dwindle. Latest soundings show a continued lack of instability with a decent cap through the mid levels that persists well into the afternoon. The system should trek eastward briskly Saturday afternoon.

- Sunday showers remain possible

A long wave trough is still expected to track through the region Sunday. There are some timing issues, however given the amount of moisture advection and the mid level short wave associated with it, showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon due to the frontal pattern. Best chance for showers and storms will be through Central Michigan and especially along the US 127 corridor.

- Warm and mainly dry weather ahead

The cold frontal system will move through quickly Sunday evening. Zonal flow will continue through early next week. This pattern is conducive for weak short waves to pass through. There is likely just enough moisture for a shower to pop here or there along lake breeze boundaries or other mesoscale boundaries.

Temperatures will increase through the week. Temperatures in the upper 70s into the low 80s remain likely. There remains a chance for an upper level system to retrograde from out east and bring slightly cooler air and northerly flow through the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this evening then rain will move in from the south bringing MVFR conditions after midnight and lowering to IFR during Saturday morning across central and eastern Lower Michigan. East winds will continue to gust over 20 knots at times this afternoon and evening.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Offshore flow and a cool/stable lake will continue and for the most part the winds will remain aloft. Some wind from better mixing over the warmer land mass could approach wind thresholds at times this afternoon and evening.

Once these higher offshore winds diminish on Saturday, we should see an extended quiet period for the latter half of the holiday weekend and for the foreseeable future next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

As previously mentioned, we are looking at the very least an elevated fire danger day today with the dry air and gusty winds expected. The highest danger will be the further north you go, especially into Northern Lower. Per coordination with the Land Management agencies, green up has occurred for areas south of U.S.- 10, lowering the threat a bit. The main concern is in the Jackpine Forests north of U.S.-10 where they are very volatile at this point in the green up process.

A coordination call will occur with neighboring NWS offices and State and Federal land management agencies to determine whether to handle the elevated fire danger with a Red Flag Warning, or just enhanced messaging based on fuel conditions and expected wind/low RH combinations.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.