textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate Snow Tonight into Early Thursday

- Snow and Blowing Snow Tomorrow

- Bitterly Cold Thursday night into Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Moderate Snow Tonight into Early Thursday

Light snowfall continues this afternoon with strong gusty westerly winds this afternoon and evening. A short wave trough will move through the region tonight. This with frontogenetic forcing and lake enhancement should allow for moderate snowfall tonight into early Thursday. While latest models have backed off on snowfall totals, there is still large CAPE values between 00Z and 12Z Thursday, upwards of 125 J/kg. Couple that with frontogenesis and ares of Omega in the mid levels and this should allow for periods of 0.5 inch/hour rates. There are two periods of heavier snowfall, one from 03Z to 09Z which is heaviest along the I 94 corridor, the other is north/south along the lakeshore, between 10Z and 15Z Thursday morning. Snow accumulations should be 2 to 5 inches of snow along and west of the US 131 corridor, with locally higher amounts along the lakeshore.

- Snow and Blowing Snow Tomorrow

While snow will lighten Thursday morning, winds will become gusty upwards of 30 mph Thursday afternoon. This will allow for blowing and drifting snow which could cause further impacts. Another round of snow will be possible Thursday evening with an additional 1 to 3 inches along and west of US 131 corridor.

- Bitterly Cold Thursday night into Saturday

Temperatures continue to trend cold Thursday night. Our lows continue to trend below zero Friday morning. Those temps along with NW winds and Wind chills as low as -25 are possible. Models continue to trend colder with -31 850 mb air moving overhead. The frigid air continues to reside overhead through Saturday. Though the high will move overhead, light winds are possible. However, with clear skies and a fresh snowpack and overnight lows Saturday could plummet perhaps some of the coldest temps since January 2019. A few daily record lows are possible Saturday. Due to the potential clearing skies, lows on Saturday away from the lake could drop to -20 or eve colder. This is due to the Arctic Oscillation as it is a likely a major contributor. The Index is currently about -3 and is forecast to drop to -5 by 1/27. The Polar Vortex is stable and is not believed to be a contributor.

The temperatures will moderate a little Sunday into early next week, however highs are expected to remain in the teens and lows in the single digits.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

We are seeing lighter lake effect snow showers at KMKG and KGRR to start off this forecast period. A more organized wave is moving across the I-94 corridor, and will bring LIFR to possibly VLIFR conditions in moderate to heavy snow through about 08-09z. Snow showers will become lighter for the latter half of the night and first part of the day. MVFR conditions will dominate in this relative lull.

The lake effect will ramp up once again by early afternoon. KMKG, KGRR, and even KLAN will get into the stronger snow showers due to the flow, and extended convergence zone. This will bring more IFR back in for those sites, and could clip KAZO and KBTL. Then, late in this forecast period, we will see the arctic front drop through the area. This will likely have a band of more intense snow showers associated with it.

MARINE

Issued at 312 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

No changes planned to the current forecast. We will be easing into gale conditions for much of the area this afternoon. Heavy freezing spray will also be a concern, especially Thursday night into Friday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ037-038- 043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072. Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067- 071>074. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ844>849. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for LMZ844>849.