textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Largely precipitation free from today into Wednesday night

- Brief warm up with rain still on track for Thursday

- Light snow accumulations possible Thu afternoon into Fri morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Largely precipitation free from today into Wednesday night

Despite a cold front moving through the area tonight and into Wednesday morning, we should stay precip free for the most part. Moisture is very scant in the profile during this time with trapped low level moisture being the main item of note this morning. The wind swings out of the southwest today which will lift low ceilings out of Southern Lower Michigan this morning. Warmer air surging into the area will also knock out the low clouds in the north this afternoon as low level warming wipes out the instability over the lake which is currently producing our clouds. Highs will warm into the 30s today and 40s on Wednesday.

- Brief warm up with rain still on track for Thursday

A strong area of low pressure will work from the Plains states on Wednesday through the Great Lakes region on Thursday. This system will bring rain and a warm up that will transition to snow and lake effect into Friday. Strong winds will also occur given the depth of the low and the strength of the pressure gradient. Not out of the realm of possibilities that we may need a Wind Advisory for portions of the area on Thursday as 39 knots is in the mixed layer in spots, which is criteria for gusts. We have time to look into this yet so no wind headlines planned this morning on land.

As for the warmth and rain, totals look similar as the last few days with many areas expected to receive about 0.40 of an inch. We should be able to handle that amount of rainfall here without much issue. The factor to keep an eye on is how fast the snowpack goes. Yesterday our snow water equivalent measurement indicated there was about 1.20 to 1.25 inches of liquid equivalent in our 7 inches of snow. We will certainly be adding water to the equation via melting snow and rain. Still not expecting any widespread flooding issues. Although our quick responding locations of Vicksburg, Holt, Jackson and Grandville (Buck Creek) could all make a run at bankfull potentially. We could see some local ponding of water in spots where storm drains are plugged with ice and snow.

- Light snow accumulations possible Thu afternoon into Fri morning

We cool down rapidly behind the Thursday system with snow mixing in as early as the evening. We have a short window for lake effect snow as the moisture clears out fairly quick Friday morning. Thursday night will be the time frame where we could see a quick 1-3 or 2-4 inches in spots as the lake machine begins again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Latest vis loop shows the stratocu that was over the terminals has lifted northward leaving sct-bkn high clouds. We'll see the return of MVFR cigs after midnight through late morning and then those low clouds will begin to lift northeastward by the end of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 344 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

It is certainly that time of year... as one marine headline ends another begins. We have issued a Gale Warning from Holland to the north and a Small Craft Advisory from Holland to the south, beginning at noon. The Gale conditions should end in the middle of the night tonight which is when the Gale Warning will likely be downgraded to match the SCA to the south. Today's wind is associated with deep low pressure (980s mb) moving across Canada (ONT into QUE) in combination with a surface high moving off the southeast U.S. coast. The pressure gradient in between looks to be even a little tighter with stronger winds than yesterday. Strongest winds yesterday were 48 mph at the Grand Haven Light and 47 mph at Big Sable Point. There is a small spotter buoy still out at mid lake near where 45007 usually sits (45007 is out for the season) and it reported nearly 8 foot waves yesterday. So our gale/wave event forecast worked out on Monday and today's event looks similar, maybe just a tad stronger.

Another strong low (980s mb once again) will move through the Great Lakes on Thursday bringing another likely round of Gale Warnings. The strongest winds look to be ahead of the low Wednesday night into Thursday when 40 knot gales look possible again.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844-845. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ846>849.