textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple Hazards with Storm System Sat Night to Early Tue

- Moderating Temps and Quiet Conditions Mid-Late Next Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Multiple Hazards with Storm System Sat Night to Early Tue

Keeping Winter Storm Watch as-is in conjunction with APX for Lower Michigan, for now. Based on latest model guidance, which hasn't changed much since yesterday, winter headlines for M-20/US-10 counties could end up being converted to advisories for Saturday night, followed by a break during the day Sunday. Then a new configuration of winter headlines can be considered, possibly Sunday night for mixed precip in west-central Lwr MI, then likely down the Lake Michigan shore for lake-effect snow Monday and Monday night. Additionally, wind advisories could be needed Sunday on the warm side of the low, then Monday on the cold side of the low. The wind threat could also be boosted late Sunday via thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Snow is anticipated to begin late this evening near and north of I-96, changing to sleet or light freezing rain before ending around daybreak. Per the HREF, snow totals around 2 inches are favored near Pentwater to Mount Pleasant, with over 4 inch totals possible north of Baldwin-Clare. ESE winds could also get breezy toward the end of the precip around daybreak in central Michigan, with 30 to 40 mph gusts.

Sunday: Warm front advancing toward Central Michigan favors highs in the 50s and 60s in the southern half of the peninsula. HREF mean wind gusts are 40 to 55 mph from the south, for places near and south of a Muskegon to Alma line, beginning mid day. Increasing moisture just above the diurnal mixed boundary layer late in the day along with modest midlevel instability could support weak convection with some thunder along or ahead of the cold front during the late evening. While any potential line of forced storms may be mostly shear-parallel, a very strong low-level wind field and pre-mixed near-surface layer means it won't take much to bring down severe wind gusts over 58 mph.

Sunday Night: Still some potential for freezing rain near and north of Ludington-Evart, which the ECMWF and GFS have been holding on to. Heavy precipitation rates occurring at that time leads to large model ice accretion raw numbers, but the actual ice accretion should be less efficient. In short, some ice is possible, but an ice storm along US-10 appears unlikely at this time.

Monday: Air temperatures in the 20s arriving and forecast soundings increasingly in support of lake effect snow throughout the day into the night. Northwest winds could also gust 40-55 mph, strongest near the lakeshore. 24-hour accumulations by early Tuesday of around 4 inches are possible in the NW-wind snow belts in West Michigan, and blowing snow will add to the travel challenges.

- Moderating Temps and Quiet Conditions Mid-Late Next Week

(Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026) Once the large low lifts NE and away from the area later Tuesday, we will see conditions settle down for the rest of the week. One more wave moves through Wednesday, but it will not have much moisture associated with it.

Temperatures will start out cold on Tuesday with the core of the low level cold air in place. We then see upper heights build from the main ridge axis over the Western portion of the country. The northern jet stream will lift well north of the area, and the upper flow will come from the Pacific. The low level flow will be coming from the SW, helping to advect warmer air over the area for the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Areas of MVFR ceilings around 3,000 feet will scatter out this morning. VFR is likely during the day. Northwest winds become light and variable midday, then become southeast or east Sat evening. After 03 Z Sun, light snow may develop near and north of MKG, GRR, and LAN. MVFR to IFR visibility is likely going into the night especially to the north of that line, affecting central Lower Michigan.

MARINE

Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Small craft advisory this morning as gusty northwest winds subside, followed by diminishing wave heights through the day. Anticipating another small craft advisory beginning late Sat night for breezy east winds and waves building offshore. South gales are possible along the shoreline on Sunday (most likely south of Whitehall). North gales are possible near Big and Little Sable Points Sunday night. Northwest gales are likely along the whole nearshore on Monday, with a chance of some storm force gusts.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for MIZ037>040-043>045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849.