textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Small chance of freezing rain Early Tuesday north of US-10

- Warm front then and low chances for precipitation Tuesday night

- Next chance for accumulating snow this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Small chance of freezing rain Early Tuesday north of US-10

Forecast remains consistent on a wedge of warm air moving over most of Michigan tonight into tomorrow. Soundings north of Big Rapids show a small signal for Freezing rain. The DGZ remains Saturated, however the temps do wedge above the 0 isotherm late tonight, early Tuesday. If wet bulbing occurs, then there will be enough condensation for rain to fall and then freeze as SFC temperatures along US 10 will remain in the low to mid 20s. The big caveat is that there is very little moisture. So it will be difficult to eek out any precipitation. The latest HREF Fram shows this. WPC does show a slight probability accordingly. Any amounts that due occur will be a Trace and would fall early tomorrow morning. The highest chance will be in Clare county, north of Clare. So any impacts could effect the morning commute in that area. South of US 10, the chances for any freezing precipitation diminish.

- Warm front then and low chances for precipitation Tuesday night

The aforementioned warm front will move through the region through the first half of Tuesday. A cold front will quickly move in its wake late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds will shift to the northwest with 850 mb temps dropping to -12C. Light lake effect snow will be possible through the first half of Tuesday evening through Mason county along the frontal boundary. A lack of moisture and depth in the DGZ will limit amounts. Any showers should be relatively short lived and should be light considering the lack of moisture overall and weak instability.

- Next chance for accumulating snow late this weekend

Models continue to track a low through the Ohio valley region this weekend. There remains some questions on track of the low,. However there continues to be a trend of shifting it to the south. So while synoptic bands of snow will be possible, the region could miss out if it trends southward. Depending how it tracks, there could be quite the mix of precipitation. Some Ensembles bring significant snowfall to the I 96 corridor. However, it is to far out to settle on any amount ranges.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

There are two primary concerns for aviation through 18z Tues. The first will be a period of LLWS developing around 06z as a strong low level jet moves into the southern part of Lower MI amidst light surface winds. There will be roughly a 6 to 7 hour period of LLWS at any given terminal. After this, a surface cold front moves through in the 12z-14z Tues time frame and cloud bases will rapidly drop behind it. Broad consensus exists on IFR developing in the post-frontal environment. The HREF suite of models is showing a 50-70% probability of dipping into the LIFR category for all terminals except MKG during the 14z-20z Tuesday window. If these probabilities hold (or increase), may need to go LIFR at several sites.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.