textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Band of light snow accumulations Saturday afternoon/evening

- Mainly dry with moderating temperatures Sunday through Wednesday

- Wet and warm period beginning late next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Band of light snow accumulations Saturday afternoon/evening

Satellite imagery this morning looks similar to this time yesterday morning with mainly clear skies over most of the area and just some clouds NE of the forecast area.

The noteworthy items for today will be the increasing winds, and resulting much warmer temperatures compared to the last couple of days. The increasing winds from the SW will be the result of a fairly strong sfc low organizing over the Canadian Prairie Provinces, and zipping east to Ontario by later today. There is a strong pressure gradient between the low, and a 1020 mb sfc high SE of the state later today.

The forecast area is expected to stay dry, even with the strong warm flow, and cold front moving through late this evening. The strongest forcing with the sfc low and upper low will stay well north of the area. There is very little moisture to work with, and the inflow for the system will be coming off of the Plains.

The focus then shifts to the band of snow that will move through the area late Saturday afternoon and evening. The various sets of data have been in generally in good agreement with uncertainty still present with regards to the details. One trend has been for snow amounts to drop a bit over the last few model runs. This is not surprising given we are dealing with very little moisture, and a flow from the NE ahead of the system will drive in more dry air from Canada.

The axis of best snow also remains a bit uncertain. This is not surprising either given we are dealing with the main forcing being mid level fgen resulting from upper jet coupling over the area. The area most likely to see the best accumulations will be from I-96 to about a Pentwater to Mt. Pleasant line, with the actual highest totals likely ending up as a narrow axis.

- Mainly dry with moderating temperatures Sunday through Wednesday

Low level flow from the NE will continue over the area through Sunday in the wake of the jet coupling/mid level fgen snow maker. This flow will advect shallow colder air over the area with 850 mb temperatures likely ranging from -10 to -15C. This will support the coldest temperatures over the next week with highs likely in the 20s. We will see temperatures recover a bit on Monday as sfc ridging passes east of the area, and more of a srly flow sets up for a day.

Most of the area should stay dry from Sunday right on through Wednesday. This is because Lower Michigan will end up in between the two branches of the upper jet. The northern polar jet will be over Southern Canada, while the subtropical jet will end up just south of the area. There will be a couple of disturbances embedded in the southern branch that will try to bring precipitation close to the southern portion of the forecast area. These chances are fairly low as the systems approach, the flow will become from the NE once again, bringing in dry low level air that will try to eat away the precipitation from the northern edge. We will leave some small chances of mixed precipitation in. Otherwise max temps will be mainly in the 40s through mid-next week.

- Wet and warm period beginning late next week

The general pattern being advertised by the various sets of data continue to indicate a pattern change evolving that will facilitate a warmer and wetter pattern.

This pattern change is the result of multiple upper troughs affecting the SW portion of the country. The position of these troughs will set up a deep flow from the SW. Multiple pieces of energy will eject from the parent low/trough, and will lift up over our area. These systems will tend to draw deep moisture up from the Gulf, along with warmer temperatures.

The first of these wet and warm systems continues to look like it will arrive around the Thursday time frame. Enough warm and moist air looks to advect up this way to bring at least a small chance of elevated thunder. There also may be a small chance of mixed precipitation over the interior portions of Central Lower as some of the shallow cold air may get stuck right at the surface briefly, before the warm air overcomes the cold air.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 635 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Skies are once again starting out mostly clear across all of the terminals this morning, like last morning. Some patchy fog has showed up at KMKG, bouncing between MVFR and IFR with some likely shallow ground fog. Obviously any fog will burn out quickly with winds picking up and temperatures warming. Winds are likely to gust as high as 30+ knots ahead of the next incoming front from the SW.

Some mid and high clouds will move across the area once again later this morning and afternoon. Gusty winds will continue until around sunset. Winds aloft will remain up, so have maintained the low level wind shear starting around 00z with around 50 knots. This does not last that long, as winds aloft diminish after 04-05z.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.