textproduct: Grand Rapids
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Slow moving front brings rain tonight and Thursday
- Upper High builds in early next week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026
- Slow moving front brings rain tonight and Thursday
Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front have shown a weakening trend last couple hours as they move over Lake Michigan and we do not expect significant rain or thunder until closer to midnight as the front sags in from the northwest.
Severe and excessive rainfall threats are low overnight as the front moves through with limited instability, shear and deep moisture, but the southern zones could see some resurgent convection on Thursday morning. With deeper moisture pooling south of the front, any training of thunderstorms could bring minor flooding.
Showers could linger through Friday afternoon across the southern zones as the front becomes parallel to the upper flow and slows down or stalls.
- Upper High builds in early next week
Large scale subsidence and drying begins over the weeknight as an upper high builds across the Northern Plains and edges into Lower Michigan. Expect a spell of hot and dry weather for early next week before heights fall as an upper trough amplifies across eastern Canada.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026
Main change this update was to add a bit more detail after 12Z with prevailing groups of precipitation instead of PROB30s. Rain showers seem increasingly likely during this time but there is some question regarding thunder potential earlier in the day prior to maximum diurnal destabilization. The most plausible scenario is needing a brief mention of prevailing thunder at LAN/JXN...and possibly BTL as well...towards afternoon. Given that this is too far out to assign large probabilities to, have omitted that level of detail for now.
MARINE
Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026
Scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy downpours will be moving southeast across Lake Michigan tonight into Thursday morning. Otherwise, conditions will continue relatively tranquil into the weekend. As high pressure builds in on Thursday into Friday, north winds could gust to 20 knots, otherwise winds should remain at 15 knots or less.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ050-056-057- 064-065-071. MARINE...None.
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