textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Chances for Rain Saturday

- Mild with Rain Chances Next Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Slight Chances for Rain Saturday

While chances for rain are low Saturday (20 percent) there are some synoptic features that could support some showers creeping into the area during the morning and afternoon. First there will be upper level support with the right entrance region of the jet providing a source of upper level divergence. Then the warm air and moisture advection from 850-700mb. The dry surface layer may prevent rain from reaching the ground our limit light showers to sprinkles. However some sounding profiles show deep moisture aloft, therefore worth keeping a mention of showers in the forecast, particularly in southwest Michigan where we'll be on the edge of a shortwave and positive vorticity advection that will slowly shift east through the weekend.

- Mild with Rain Chances Next Week

While the overall pattern remains murky next week, southwest flow will bring mild temperatures and additional chances for rain. A mid-level ridge may keep dry conditions in place for Monday but lowering heights and southwest flow will reintroduce rain chances to the area Monday night into Tuesday. The overall trough feature still has spread in the timing, placement, and strength, therefore the NBM is painting continuous rain chances through next week. This doesn't mean nonstop rain for several days. The main feature for these rain chances moves over the CONUS Sunday and with better sampling we should see guidance hone in on a similar scenario. Overall expect confidence in the extended to increase toward the latter half of the weekend.

Highs next week will mostly be in the mid 60s to low 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Normal temperatures this time of year are in the 50s with lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 622 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Outside of some shallow ground fog, VFR conditions are expected with light and variable northerly winds.

MARINE

Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Northwest winds have overperformed from the forecast resulting in wave heights currently at Holland around 5 feet. Winds have started to lighten a little bit and would expect wave heights to begin to fall heading into this morning. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended until 5 AM due to the current conditions.

For the rest of today northerly winds around 5 to 10 knots are expected with wave heights dropping below 2 feet this afternoon. Offshore winds develop tonight and continue into Saturday keeping wave heights low. Offshore winds continue into next week but we'll see an increase in speed by Tuesday bringing our next chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.