textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow accumulations likely Wed

- Rain chances Thu/Fri, potentially significant warmup Saturday

- Rain to snow Sat night/Sun with cooler temperatures early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Light snow accumulations likely Wed

The last vestiges of the major storm system that affected the region over the weekend are diminishing over the area this afternoon as the upper low pulls away. Even though snow showers are expanding across most of the area on the radar with a diurnal boost, the intensity of the snow showers has noticeably trended down over the last few hours. This jives well with the upper jet/shear zone pushing east of the area, and the upper flow becoming anti-cyclonic this afternoon.

We will see only a brief break in the snow shower activity tonight as a weak ridge moves through. The next short wave currently near Minnesota is poised to move at the area very late tonight and on Wednesday. This system looks quite weak with limited impacts expected. A major reason for this is that we do not see a deeply saturated column with this system About the time the lower levels saturate sufficiently to allow snow to reach the ground, the mid/upper level moisture is already peeling away.

This system is expected to produce less than an inch of snow for most of the area. Areas along the lakeshore with a low level flow from the SW could bump those totals up a bit due to some lake enhancement. Forecast soundings and synoptic level views indicate that inversion heights are low, resulting from a lack of deep cold air with this system. This will keep the highest snow amounts from being much higher than 2-3 inches.

One small concern with this system is we could see a brief period of freezing drizzle on the backside of the system. This results from losing the mid and upper level moisture, and the dgz becoming unsaturated. This would be brief, if it happens at all. That said, it doesn't take much freezing drizzle to cause some minor impacts.

- Rain chances Thu/Fri, potentially significant warmup Saturday

Yet another weak system in the flow will arrive as early as pre-dawn Thursday morning, and more likely during the day. This system once again will not have a significant amount of moisture associated with it as the low level flow will be coming from the Southern Plains.

A difference with this system from Wed's system is upper heights will be a bit higher, thus implying a little warmer. The column generally looks like one where mainly rain is expected for most of our forecast area. The exceptions to this would be across the higher terrain of Central Lower Michigan where some of it may be snow early. In addition, if the system comes in early enough before sunrise, sfc temps may be around freezing, allowing for a little bit of freezing rain being possible. Temperatures are expected to warm above freezing by late Thursday morning.

Another system in the flow could clip the area on Friday. This system will be further north as upper heights will continue to rise a bit. Much of the area will likely stay dry, with the northern portion of the forecast area seeing the best chance of some light rain.

The Friday system being far enough north will allow the low level flow from the SW to become established over the area. This will be advecting warmer air up and over the area. This flow will increase Friday night into Saturday. We will be looking at some potentially warm weather, depending on the timing of a front passing through the area sometime from early Saturday through late Saturday. The later this front moves through, the better the chance we see warmer temperatures on Saturday. The timing is uncertain at this time, with temps on Saturday being as low as the upper 40s and 50s, to potentially in the 60s to near 70F.

- Rain to snow Sat night/Sun with cooler temperatures early next week

Whatever the timing of the front is on Saturday, it will become active Saturday night into Sunday with precipitation. It is likely to be warm enough initially to be rain, but will transition over the snow as colder air pushes in through Sunday. Still a lot of details to be worked out with this over the next few days.

We will then see a fairly strong Canadian sfc ridge move over the area Sunday night and linger through Tuesday. This will bring dry and cool conditions to the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Have adjusted TAFs for timing of snow bands. We continue to see occasional IFR visibility restrictions this afternoon, Mainly at AZO and MKG. Restrictions will continue to lessen over the next few hours with all ending around 22Z.

The next round of snow showers will come Wednesday morning. There are some questions on timing but MVFR cigs and vsbys are expected between 10Z to 16Z with period of IFR between 12Z to 15Z. Winds will become gusty by 14Z. Expect improving conditions after 16Z.

MARINE

Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Small Craft Advisory will be left to continue with this afternoon's forecast package. Winds are coming down steadily at the limited coastal sites. This will continue, with waves to follow suit in their typical lag time after winds diminish. We will see a break for tonight and most of tomorrow, before winds will come up again in association with the next wave of low pressure moving by. These winds and waves are likely to require another Small Craft Advisory for Tuesday night through Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Water from the heavy rain over the weekend continues to move toward and through the river systems. We have 3 river flood warnings - Maple River at Maple Rapids, Grand River at Comstock Park, and Muskegon River at Newaygo in effect currently. The minor flooding on the Muskegon should begin to diminish overnight tonight. Meanwhile, the Grand River and Maple River minor flooding will take another day or two to drop below flood levels. With no additional heavy rain threats in the next week or so, all of the rivers should have a chance to recover back closer to more typical levels. However, this time of year it takes a while for the saturated ground to dry out, so we will remain vulnerable to renewed flooding for at least several weeks.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.