textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake Effect Snow Showers and Slick Roads Tonight

- Impactful Snow and Blowing Snow Sunday Evening Through Monday

- Subzero Wind Chills Monday/Tuesday, Then More Snow Midweek

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Lake Effect Snow Showers and Slick Roads Tonight

Lake effect snow showers amid WSW flow increased earlier today and are helping maintain slick road conditions particularly in Muskegon, Ottawa, and Kent counties. These snow showers are aided by upstream low-level moisture in the DGZ which is producing snow over southern Wisconsin, along with augmented lift from 925-850 mb frontogenesis, as a tongue of relatively colder 850 air is advecting through northern Illinois, Indiana, and southern Michigan.

Short term guidance favors an uptick in these snow showers this evening where both the lake effect and fgen-related lift is maximized, followed by a period of more concentrated but shifting heavier snow bands overnight in proximity to a sharp surface trough now moving south from northern Lake Michigan toward western Lower Michigan. As such, expecting an additional 2 to locally 5 inches over most areas west of US-131 through daybreak Sunday, along with continued slick roads.

- Impactful Snow and Blowing Snow Sunday Evening Through Monday

Snow intensity midday Sunday should be a little subdued prior to the arrival of the next Clipper-style low during the evening. Between about 4 pm and 10 pm Sun, southwest wind lake effect mostly within the DGZ and midlevel snow production above the DGZ will ramp up, followed by lake effect continuing as strengthening winds become more west then northwest with Arctic air on Monday. Upstream 850 mb air is favored to be around -20 to -23 C on Monday with lake induced convection climbing above 10 kft. Temperatures in the teens, powdery snow, and winds gusting 30-35 mph on Monday will create blowing snow and travel difficulty not just within the Lake Michigan adjacent counties (where snow totals should be greater) but also well inland. Amounts of 4 to 6 inches (with higher drifts) are possible near/west of US-131, and 1 to 3 are possible toward Mid Michigan.

- Subzero Wind Chills Monday/Tuesday, Then More Snow Midweek

Lighter lake effect snow showers continue Monday night and Tuesday. The core of coldest air will move through Monday night. Tuesday morning lows are expected to be in the single digits with wind chills -5 to -15 F.

Temperatures warm up into the balmy 20s on Wednesday before dropping back into the teens Wed night and Thursday. The next clipper system and following lake effect snow during that time will be good for another few inches along with the increasingly familiar travel challenges.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

West-southwest flow has MVFR to IFR snow showers impacting GRR and MKG this afternoon, with an expected uptick in intensity later this afternoon into this evening. Temporary drops in conditions are likely for the next few hours at AZO/BTL before becoming prevailing there and at LAN as coverage and intensity of snow showers increases. Tonight, snow showers transition into more concentrated heavier bands as a surface trough swings through. IFR is likely under the bands, but extent of conditions is uncertain enough to warrant a PROB30 for many of the terminals for IFR overnight. Lake effect snow showers then continue into the day on Sunday. Gusts to 25 knots from the west/west-southwest will continue through the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 326 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Winds and waves hazardous for small craft persist through Sunday. West-northwest gales and heavy freezing spray are possible early Monday morning and through the day.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ037-038-043- 044-050. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ056-057-064- 071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849. Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for LMZ844>849.