textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong Spring Storm on Sunday

- Winter Returns with Lake Effect Snow Monday into Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Strong Spring Storm on Sunday

The Winter Storm Watch was replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory which will include all the counties in the Watch plus Isabella County. Slick roads are expected late this evening from a burst of snow followed by freezing rain on Sunday morning.

A Wind Advisory is in effect from late Sunday morning across the I-94 corridor and the southeast forecast area from Jackson to Lansing.

The expected forecast progression of potentially high-impact weather elements through Sunday is thus: bands of snow from warm advection/isentropic ascent and associated frontogenetic response will move north through the forecast area this evening with light accumulations of generally 1 to 3 inches across the northern half of the forecast area. The precip will change to sleet and freezing rain on Sunday morning and then rain by Sunday afternoon as continued mid level warm advection becomes surface based with the passage of the warm front.

Winds in the warm sector will gust to advisory criteria of 45 mph at times across the southern and southeast forecast area during the afternoon and evening. A line of convection is expected to be across Lake Michigan Sunday evening which will move east and bring the potential for severe winds, although the threat may be limited by the expected diurnal decrease of instability in the warm sector. The threat of a QLCS tornado remains low, but not zero as shear profiles remain favorable for that type of convective mode through the evening.

Heavy rain could cause some minor flooding issues, especially across the northwest zones. See the Hydrology Discussion section.

- Winter Returns with Lake Effect Snow Monday into Tuesday

An arctic front erases the warm sector Sunday night with rain changing to snow and lake effect snow intensifying through Monday as inversion heights are around 7 kft AGL into Monday night. We will probably need winter weather headlines for snow and blowing snow into Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 758 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Despite precipitation on the radar, not much is actually reaching the ground so far to the south. As this area builds northward through the late evening clouds will thicken and lower a bit, but still look like they will remain VFR. Some light snow is expected over the northern areas (MKG/GRR/LAN) but so far is looking pretty underwhelming. There remains a small chance for some brief freezing rain to mix in after the snow ends, which could produce some trace accumulations of ice, mainly at GRR and MKG, but this is far from a sure bet. Sunday will see gusty southeast winds and much warmer temperatures shift into the area, but will also bring increasing amounts of wind shear as we go through the day and into Sunday evening. A line of storms is expected in the mid/late evening timeframe Sunday evening.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A temporary lull in the winds and waves tonight before winds increase dramatically early Sunday. We issued a Gale Warning from Sunday morning into Monday evening for an extended period of strong winds which could include thunderstorms on Sunday evening and lake effect snow and freezing spray on Monday.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Rivers remain high after several recent rounds of heavy rain. While the upcoming Sunday/Monday storm looks to keep its heaviest rain north of our big watersheds, we are still expecting around 1.5 inches of rain north of I-96, including across much of the Muskegon River watershed.

Current river modeling suggests this may be enough to generate some minor flood stage on the lower portions (below Croton Dam) of the Muskegon River in the midweek timeframe. Meanwhile, further south, the lower Grand River is already near bankfull, and just beginning to drop after recent high water. An expected one-half inch of rain coming up will prolong this high water, but is currently not expected to cause any new flooding. Nevertheless, surprises happen, and if the heavier axis of rain pivots south toward the Kent County area we could generate additional general flooding as well as eventual river flooding.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ037>040-043>046. Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday night for MIZ059-066-067-071>074. MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 10 PM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849.