textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow passes mainly southwest of forecast area this morning

- Snow passes mainly north of area Monday night

- Increasing precipitation chances by this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

- Snow passes mainly southwest of forecast area this morning

The SPC mesoanalysis 800-750mb EPVg display nicely tells the story regarding the northwest-southeast oriented FGEN snow band passing east of Chicago at this time. There is a sharp reflectivity gradient on the west side of this band, indicating good coupling between the ascending branch of the FGEN response and the overlying layer of negative EPV (conditional instability). The consequent narrow, sharply focused snow band will give far southwest Lower MI a glancing blow of little to no accumulations. For the rest of the forecast area, accumulating snow is looking far less likely due to subsidence contributed from both shortwave ridging aloft (per water vapor imagery) and mesoscale subsidence poleward of the FGEN band.

- Snow passes mainly north of area Monday night

As noted previously, a northern stream shortwave trough and clipper tracks north of Lower Michigan Monday into Tuesday. Model guidance indicates low chances for accumulating snow to reach as far south as our northern forecast area. For example, regarding probabilities of exceeding a tenth of an inch of accumulation, latest REFS guidance indicates a 50 percent chance of this happening in Clare County (our far northeast forecast area), whereas 08/01Z NBM guidance gives just a 10 percent chance of this happening north of US-10.

Tuesday will be the warmest day in quite a while prior to colder air filtering in behind the exiting clipper. High temperatures farther south towards I-94 could make a run at 40 degrees.

- Increasing precipitation chances by this weekend

It seems likely that dry conditions will prevail in the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe with surface high pressure centered in the area. Precipitation chances nudge upward beginning late Thursday/Friday and continue into the weekend. This uptick in precipitation chances is partly associated with the typical growing uncertainty that occurs at longer forecast projection times and this will usually trend the forecast towards climatological PoPs.

The other reason behind this uptick in PoPs is that we do see a signal for longwave troughing in the west and downstream ridging somewhere in the mid-section of the CONUS by the weekend. Cluster analysis shows growing agreement with this solution among the medium range ensembles. The main questions are amplitude and phase speed of this wave. Although precipitation details are a bit tough to iron out at this point, what's more certain is a warmer pattern due to upper ridging centered near or perhaps just east of our longitude, accompanied by deep southwesterly flow. Some guidance like the AI GEFS even suggests much of the southern forecast area could get into the 40s by Sunday. This should provide a clue that precipitation type could be more of a rain/snow mix, with a non-zero probability of some freezing rain as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1121 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

A weak upper disturbance will slide southeast through the Great Lakes region late tonight and Sunday morning. The disturbance will bring a chance for some light snow to far Southwest Lower Michigan, potentially grazing the TAF sites of MKG, AZO and GRR. Have opted to bring some very light snow into AZO (6SM -SN) and VCSH to the other two sites. Moisture takes a while to saturate in the low levels at these sites and overall this will result in very little to no snow at the TAF sites. Ceilings will remain VFR only dipping to around 5000 feet at AZO. Any snow associated with this system will pass to the south Sunday morning and ceilings will then lift through the afternoon, more into a mid deck with bases at or above 7,000 feet. By Sunday evening we will be scattering out. Bottom line, VFR weather is expected at all TAF sites over the course of the next 24 hours, from 06z to 06z. The only place of concern would be AZO with a small potential of some visibilities below 6SM for a few hours towards 12z. Winds will be light from the northeast and east tonight, becoming southeast on Sunday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.