textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Break in Snow This Evening; One More Round Tonight

- Milder Early Next Week With Some Rain Showers Tuesday

- Colder Mid to Late Week with Some Snow Shower Chances

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

- Break in Snow This Evening; One More Round Tonight

A wet snow has been falling across a good portion of the region since late morning in association with an approaching upper low (well defined on mid level WV imagery across northern WI) and weak surface low development across the Lower Peninsula as the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere are saturated with some lift throughout the DGZ. Impressive flake size has been observed given 10 ubar/s of lift within the DGZ at times. However, accumulation efficiency on roads has been held in check given warm antecedent ground temperatures that have had to be overcome by higher snowfall rates, though unpaved surfaces look to have 1"-2" of accumulation in the Advisory area at this time. The scales are now tipping near and north of Muskegon as steady snow for hours has helped bring air temperatures down into the 30-32F range and MDOT RWIS road temps down into the 31F-32F range. This has allowed for snow to stick to some road surfaces as observed across Oceana and Mason Counties. Elsewhere, wet snow has largely melted on contact on hard surfaces or has accumulated to an inch or two on grass. Further south toward I-94, rain has been the dominant precipitation type.

A break in the snow is expected this evening before colder air arrives over the lake and across northern Lower MI. 1000-700mb air trajectories indicate a W to NW wind shift as low level cold advection occurs. A period of enhanced moisture and lift in this layer supports a period of lake enhanced and then, briefly, lake effect snow from about 03z-15z Sunday. An additional 1"-2", locally 3", is likely for the lakeshore and U.S. 10 from the lakeshore to around Reed City. There may be a similar maximum from South Haven to western Kalamazoo County depending on the band placement.

- Milder Early Next Week With Some Rain Showers Tuesday

Warmer 850mb temps on the order of 2C-5C arrive by Tuesday ahead of some longwave troughing that will try to develop across the region into mid to late week. Rain showers will be the dominant p-type with amounts looking likely to be around 0.10".

- Colder Mid to Late Week with Some Snow Shower Chances

Deeper longwave troughing exerts itself on Wednesday and this will lead to a drop in temperatures throughout the day as a cold front moves through. While there are timing differences in the model guidance, it is well agreed upon that temperatures ahead of the front will be in the mid to upper 30s and behind it will fall into the teens to low 20s with rain changing to snow at some point. When the front moves through and how quickly temps fall will dictate associated travel impacts, if any. At this point it is worth monitoring the potential.

Depending on the model solution, various vort maxes may be swinging through the Great Lakes between Thursday and the end of next weekend. Any one of these could help produce enough synoptic lift to support some lake effect snow. Timing of these features will be better pinned down as we head through the next few days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 645 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

As the front and associated snowfall continues to move eastward, snowfall has all but ended. MKG has already gone VFR. Most locations will continue to have MVFR cigs overnight through GRR, and BTL, among others are varying depending on low cloud movements. MVFR cigs will linger until a secondary front moves through early Sunday. This will allow winds to mix down with gusts as high as 35KTS. Lake enhanced snow showers will move through early tomorrow with times adjusted in the TAF's. The northwest flow will affect MKG first then through to JXN from 09Z until around 16Z respectively. Have included Prob30 groups due to the potential for MVFR in snow showers to linger due to NW flow. Gusty winds will continue through daytime Sunday before winds subside by 23Z. MVFR cigs should continue through this timeframe, improving after 00Z Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 238 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

SCA continues into early Sunday before transitioning to a Gale Warning as cold NW flow moves over the lake. The latest model guidance for winds and gusts continues to support the timing of the Gale Warning on Sunday, so no changes have been made. Beyond Sunday, waves continue to look active through much of the week with frequent frontal passages.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ037>039- 043>045-050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849.