textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance of freezing drizzle remains this morning south

- Snow amounts for tonight-Sunday trending a little higher

- Multiple chances for some accumulating snow next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Chance of freezing drizzle remains this morning south

Latest radar imagery this morning shows the more widespread light snow earlier is steadily tapering off. What is left is an arc of light snow extending from Mt. Pleasant, to Holland, to near Battle Creek. This area is progressing east, and losing its steam likely as it moves away from the warmer and moist air from Lake Michigan.

As this area of better echoes moves east, it will be when this moves out that there will be a short window of opportunity for some freezing drizzle. This will be the result of the loss of deeper moisture, where the DGZ may become unsaturated briefly before all precipitation ends, or flurries develop as cooler air moves in and the DGZ becomes saturated. Thankfully this should not last long if it occurs, and will be happening during a lower impact period as compared to rush hour during the weekdays. So far, there has not been anything reported upstream over Wisconsin. We will monitor this situation for any extra messaging that might be needed.

The rest of the day should be mainly quiet. There may be some flurries with the moisture layer in the dgz for the rest of the day. No accumulations are expected through this evening.

- Snow amounts for tonight-Sunday trending a little higher

What looked like yesterday as another light accumulation of snow for the lakeshore later tonight and Sunday morning, has now evolved to looking a little more favorable for more of the forecast area to see some accumulations, albeit light still.

We are still watching the next short wave coming at the area from the WNW over British Columbia early this morning. What has become more apparent is upper jet forcing, and even some possible coupling of a departing jet to our ENE and the incoming jet streak.

This added forcing is helping to bump snow totals up a bit for this next system, and to bring it in a little earlier. The lakeshore is still looking like 1-2 inches, but now much of the forecast area is looking at that amount, and maybe even a tad higher across the southern half of the area where the forcing from the coupling jets looks to be maximized. For the most part right now, it looks like we will not need headlines. If amounts trend much higher, we may need to consider some headlines down south.

- Multiple chances for some accumulating snow next week

We will see a fairly decent break in the snow potential from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. The next wave in the series misses us to the south, and takes the associated forcing with it. The air is cold enough for lake effect, but the flow will be offshore initially on Sunday ahead of the incoming sfc ridge. Then, the flow becomes from the SSW on Monday, and may clip Little and Big Sable points with a few snow showers on Monday.

We will see enough warm air advection take place by the overnight hours Monday night for light snow to break out for much of the area. This is out ahead of a short wave heading straight for the area, and associated sfc low riding along the U.S./Canadian border. This will be another system in which the NW portion of the area will see the best accumulations with the flow from the SW off of the warmer lake in addition to the moisture boost. Those areas could see up to 4 inches or so, where the rest of the area would see 2 inches or less.

After a brief break on Tuesday in the wake of the low passing NE of the area, the next system will bring in snow beginning Tuesday evening and lasting into Wednesday morning. Right now, the core of the precipitation would come pre-daybreak Wednesday as the upper wave and sfc low pass across far Southern Lower.

The best snow accumulations with this system will likely occur just north of the track of the sfc low. Right now, the track of the low is expected to cross far Southern Lower, putting the heaviest snow axis near the I-96 corridor. The track of this low and the wave are expected to be tweaked a little since we are still 4 days away. That is looking to be the system that has the best chance to bring the most snow to the area. Areas near the track of the low and south are likely to see rain mix in with sufficiently warm enough temperatures present.

It looks like that once the late Tue/early Wed system departs the area, we will see a relatively quiet period then through Friday with small to no chance of snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 638 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Based on radar trends and the latest observations, it seems that the threat of freezing drizzle is diminishing. KGRR and KLAN have had some 4SM BR, which is likely some freezing drizzle/freezing mist, but nothing significant. The radar had some light echoes which looked like freezing drizzle also earlier, but it too has diminished. Based on these trends, we have kept it out of the forecast at this time.

We will see winds veer from the WSW to NW this morning as a weak front moves through. Any reduction to visibility will improve, and ceilings will lift some. MVFR conditions will rule through the day and into the evening.

We will see light snow break out from West to East overnight. The MVFR ceilings are likely to persist until the snow starts. Then the visibilities and ceilings will drop to IFR just before the end of this forecast period.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.