textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance of light rain north Tuesday night

- Rain late week, then rain/snow during the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

- Chance of light rain north Tuesday night

Model trends have largely pushed the next system farther north closer to the Straits late Tuesday. Most of the cwa will see a 20-30 percent chance of light rain Tuesday night and Wednesday; the US-10 corridor is a bit higher at 35-45 percent. Either way, QPF is negligible...a hundredth or two.

Once the system moves east, sunshine will return Wednesday afternoon. South winds ahead of the weak low will push temperatures into the mid to upper 50s Tue/Wed.

- Rain late week, then rain/snow during the weekend

The next system will roll through Friday bringing an 85-100 percent chance of rain. The precipitation with Friday's cold front will be all rain. The front will be accompanied by a strong short wave moving across the central Great Lakes. QPF isn't too much though...roughly a 25-35 percent chance of a half inch of rain west of US-131 and 10-20 percent chance east of there.

Following quickly on the heels of the cold front will be another clipper type system. This system will arrive late Saturday after colder air is already in place from the Friday system. The track of the system by both the ECMWF and GFS is near the MI/IN border Saturday night. Operational GFS gives significant snow to the southern cwa with this system but that will likely change as the weekend gets closer. The GFS ensemble mean is around an inch at GRR and so are the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means. However, each model has a few ensemble members producing a few inches of snow.

The low moving across southern Lower Saturday night will have a series of short waves dig an upper trough behind it, which will help to draw down colder air. Thus, once the synoptic precipitation diminishes, some lake effect snow showers will develop late in the weekend as h8 temps around -10c flow across the lake.

High temperatures over the weekend will be in the lower to mid 40s and around 40 next Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions are in place across all of Southwest Lower Michigan as we approach midnight. High clouds are streaming in from the west. We will see a gradual increase in high clouds overnight with bases generally at or above 20,000ft. On Tuesday, a mid deck of clouds will begin to spill into the region ahead of a warm front lifting north into the area. These mid clouds will lower from 10,000 feet midday on Monday around 18z, to 7,000 feet as we work towards 06z on Tuesday. Not out of the realm of possibilities to see an isolated shower near Muskegon late in the TAF period from 03z to 06z Tuesday. Winds will be much more tame in the next 24 hours as opposed to the last 24 hours. Wind will generally be from the southwest on Monday at 5 to 15 knots. Some low level wind shear is expected in the last few hours of the TAF period, 03z to 06z Tuesday, as southwest winds at 2,000ft increase to 35-40 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 218 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

We've tweaked the timing of the gale warning to end at 6 pm. A small craft advisory will begin at 6 pm and continue through mid morning Tuesday.

So far, winds at the lake shore have topped out around 30 knots (Big Sable) and have been in the 25-30 knot range elsewhere. Models suggest some mixing yet into the 35 knot range for a few more hours but that's not certain. Waves will slowly decrease overnight.

South flow will increase Tuesday afternoon/evening as low pressure over the upper Midwest develops and another small craft advisory may be needed.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.