textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry Mix Today

- Chance for Rain Thursday into Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Wintry Mix Today

Our round of wintry weather today is currently expanding from Wisconsin into southern Lake Michigan and tied to the 700mb frontogenesis and 500 mb positive vorticity advection. Forecast remains on track for this to move into southwest Michigan in the next few hours with South Haven already observing rain.

Our best lift will be through early to mid morning with this area 700 mb frontogenesis. 925mb to 850mb temperatures are currently around 0C which you can also see reflected on the surface temperatures. Depending on where you are in this temperature profile will determine the precipitation type you see. Initially expecting rain in southwest Michigan with a transition to snow to the northeast. As the low to mid level temperature profile adjusts we could see more of a rain/snow/sleet mix. At this time freezing rain is limited as ground temperatures are still warm, and with the cloud cover increasing road temperatures have also increased to around 3 degrees or so warmer than the air temperature. The better chances are with elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses that will be closer to the air temperature. If we see a good burst of sleet that could also drop surface temperatures creating slick conditions. Any snow accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Overall there could be some slick spots for the morning commute with the wintry mix, make sure to give yourself a little extra time this morning.

As we head into the afternoon we could see more of a transition to rain across much of the area as we lose cloud ice. Showers will clear during the late afternoon and early evening with dry conditions expected overnight into Wednesday morning.

- Chance for Rain Thursday into Friday

Temperatures will warm through the week with a return to the 50s Thursday into Friday. However that will bring a chance for rain Thursday night through Friday morning. Precipitation amounts will be determined on low position, but at this time the best QPF remains north and southward of Lower Michigan. Temperatures will continue to trend around to just above normal through the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 649 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

A wintry mix of sleet, snow, rain, and freezing rain is impacting areas along and south of a Muskegon to Lansing line. A light glaze of ice is possible along with snow/sleet accumulations of a half inch or less. Showers become more scattered by 15Z with more of a Rain/Snow mix into the afternoon. Dry conditions return this evening.

Ceilings will gradually lower this morning into the afternoon to IFR to MVFR with AZO, BTL, and JXN dropping below 1000 feet. As drier air moves into tonight, VFR conditions return from north to south between 01Z to 12Z.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.