textproduct: Grand Rapids
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Mostly Dry Through this Weekend
- Rain and Thunderstorms possible Monday Though Thursday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 219 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026
- Mostly Dry Through this Weekend
High pressure will dominate over the next few days. A shortwave trough moving through Saturday may spark off some pop-up showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening. At this time it is a 20 percent chance where most if not all could remain dry. However with Mean MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and some moisture present at 850 mb, do not want to rule out seeing an isolated thunderstorm.
- Rain and Thunderstorms possible Monday Though Thursday
An upper level ridge moves in for Monday with southwest flow toward the surface. These southwest winds will bring warm air advection along with moisture advection. Some showers could develop earlier in the day, otherwise better chances (50 percent or greater) move in Monday night into Tuesday. Mean MUCAPE values will be around 500 to 1000 J/kg with shear values around 35 knots thanks to a healthy low level jet. The timing isn't ideal for severe weather, but a period to keep an eye on as we get closer.
Showers could linger into Wednesday and Thursday as we remain in southwest flow until the cold front moves through and high pressure moves in.
High temperatures will be in the 70s with the chance for some to see low 80s on Tuesday. Lows overnight are expected to be in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures will be a little warmer in the 50s and 60s early Tuesday morning.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 219 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026
VFR conditions will dominate the pattern through most of the period. While westerly to northwesterly winds have filtered through the area there could be enough low level moisture at LAN and JXN to have periods of MVFR to IFR vsbys between 09Z to 15Z Friday morning.
MARINE
Issued at 219 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Northwest winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected for the rest of today with waves heights 2 feet or less. High pressure moves in for Friday with offshore winds Friday morning becoming more onshore during the afternoon. Southwest winds pick up Saturday ahead of a front that will move through late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Winds and waves may approach Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement levels. Pop-up thunderstorms and showers will also be possible with the front as it moves through.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None. MARINE...None.
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