textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and Thunder tonight with a low threat for Severe storms

- Much Colder with Lake effect Snow on Monday into Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Rain and Thunder tonight with a low threat for Severe storms

We have hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for the western two rows of counties and extended and expanded the Wind Advisory.

Temperatures across Lower Michigan this afternoon range from 30 degrees at CAD to near 70 at the MI-IND border. Despite over 50 knots of deep layer shear, the severe weather threat is limited by a lack of instability as seen by forecast and observed soundings. A first batch of convection has weakened as it moved into a more stable environment this afternoon with dew points still in the 30s down to I-94. The dew points across the southern zones should recover to the lower 50s based on upstream obs, but the threat for severe appears to be limited to isolated wind gusts this evening across the far southern/southeast zones.

Sfc low tracks through central Lower Michigan with cold advection beginning after midnight and synoptic winds expected to begin or continue gusting to 40 to 50 mph for all zones by daybreak.

- Much Colder with Lake effect Snow on Monday into Tuesday

Strong CAA continues all day Monday and temperatures will drop into the teens by evening. Model soundings show inversion heights around 8 kft and strong northwest flow with snow showers penetrating far inland. With temperatures well below freezing, blowing snow will reduce visibilities through Tuesday morning. The snow showers will diminish on Tuesday as the upper trough axis shifts east surface high pressure builds in.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

We'll see a little bit of everything during the period. Light rain showers will begin the TAF period. Strong winds aloft will create LLWS. Thunderstorms developing along a cold front will move across the terminals late this afternoon and early evening. IFR cigs will develop once the cold front moves through. As colder air advects over the region, rain showers will transition to snow showers. Strong winds will continue with a veering to the WNW and create some blowing snow too. Accumulations are possible Monday at MKG/GRR.

MARINE

Issued at 303 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

No changes to the Gale and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings. After a line of showers and thunderstorms go through this evening the winds will go northwest on Monday with occasional gusts to 40 knots.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072. Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for MIZ039-040-045-046-051- 052-058-059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844>849. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 8 AM Monday to noon EDT Tuesday for LMZ844>849.