textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Chance (20 percent) For Showers This Afternoon and Evening

- Mostly Dry Conditions Into Next Week, Warming Temperatures

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Slight Chance (20 percent) For Showers This Afternoon and Evening

Lake effect showers remain largely offshore, but could still clip Van Buren County this afternoon into tonight. Cloud cover will remain in place underneath the trough overhead with plenty of low level moisture in place. There is the potential for this moisture to be deep enough with modest low level lapse rates to produce showers. This can be seen in the sounding profiles this afternoon and evening before the drier air moves in and pressure heights rise. Confidence is not high due to no strong low level lift signal, so only included 20 percent PoPs at this time.

- Mostly Dry Conditions Into Next Week, Warming Temperatures

Increasing pressure heights will bring a prolonged stretch of dry weather through most of next week. Clouds will gradually decrease Sunday into Monday as drier air advects into the region. The upper level ridge will settle over the eastern CONUS with troughing over the western CONUS. A shortwave tries to make its way into the region Thursday which could bring our first chance for rain. Ensembles are picking up on this, but timing is uncertain on Thursday with rain chances potentially holding off until Friday.

Under high pressure and sunny skies for the beginning of next week we'll see some warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Southwest flow returns Thursday into next weekend bringing warmer air. Highs for the second half of the week look to rise into the mid 50s to low 60s with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

MVFR conditions are expected to last into Sunday morning. AZO has a lower probability of ceilings remaining VFR therefore have their ceilings rising to around 3500 feet around 3Z. Elsewhere sites will be around 2500 to 3000 feet into Sunday morning and may briefly rise above 3000 feet at times. There is a 20 percent chance for showers this afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF forecast. There is also a 20 percent signal for ceilings around 1000 feet toward LAN and JXN this evening. These lower ceilings will be dependent on showers developing.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ844-845. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ846>849.