textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of rain tonight

- Rain changing to snow on Friday

- Strong winds from I-96 to the south on Friday

- Turning colder with lake effect snow over the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Periods of rain tonight

Low pressure will lift northeast from near Kansas City this afternoon to Southeast Wisconsin by 12z on Friday. An occluded front will lift into the area tonight. Periods of rain are expected tonight with the most concentrated occurring overnight just ahead of the front. 850mb moisture transport and PWAT values spike in the overnight time frame. There is a small chance for thunderstorms, but as we work through the night instability that was already low drops off even further. At this point given very low probabilities have left thunder out of the forecast. Most areas will see rainfall amounts of a half inch or less, but a few locations over Central Lower Michigan could exceed a half inch. These totals should not affect river levels much.

- Rain changing to snow on Friday

The low will lift into Northern Lower Michigan on Friday with a depth in the mid 990s mb. The low peaks around 990mb in the morning over Northern Lower Michigan. Cold air will pour into the area from the west on Friday on the south side of the low and some snow will mix in with the rain in the midday hours, before a rain/snow mix becomes more dominant in the afternoon. At this point not expecting much in the way of accumulation in most areas, but a dusting to perhaps an inch may occur. There is some indication for a localized 1-3 inches downwind of Lake Michigan centered on Ottawa and Allegan Counties. This could be related to some wind convergence (both speed and directional) on the south side of the low, but not playing this up for now. Even if this occurred, not expecting big impacts given marginal temperatures in the lower to middle 30s.

- Strong winds from I-96 to the south on Friday

We have issued a Wind Advisory for much of Southern Lower Michigan (from the I-96 row of counties to the south), including Holland, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Kalamazoo and Jackson. BUFKIT overviews from both the NAM and the GFS show 45 mph in the mixed layer on Friday in these areas. The wind will ramp up through the course of the morning and peak in the afternoon in most areas.

- Turning colder with lake effect snow over the weekend

Colder air filter into the region over the weekend and into early next week in northwest flow. Sunday into Monday we should have delta T's in the middle teens C which will result in some light lake effect snow over Western Lower Michigan. The flow transitions to northerly fairly quick with RH levels forecast to drop, so not expecting any big accumulations.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 553 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Weak line of showers is moving across into the middle of the lakeshore. This is a harbinger of some of the rainshowers that will move into the region this evening. Have adjusted the timing in the TAF's for tonight's incoming precipitation. The band of showers should move through between 00Z to 06Z. Have MVFR cigs beginning around 03Z with further reductions around 06Z. Showers with MVFR cigs and vsbys are likely between 03Z to around 10Z. There could be periods of IFR cigs and vsbys through that timeframe. Expect some improving conditions around sunrise with IFR cigs settling in late in the TAF period. The other concern is that there should be two periods of LLWS with the incoming front. The first will between 08Z to 12Z. Another Low level jet will move overhead after 18Z tomorrow afternoon. That jet may be a little weaker but could be lower, reaching down to 1,500ft. That LLWS should end by 00Z Saturday. Heaviest snow showers should be between 18Z to 22Z, though the heaviest snow showers will be north of the TAF sites.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM EST Friday for MIZ056>059- 064>067-071>074. MARINE...None.