textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder air and localized heavier lake effect bands through tonight

- Snow showers Fri through Tue, especially west of U.S.-131

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

- Colder air and localized heavier lake effect bands through tonight

Bottom line up front...No changes will be made to the existing Winter Weather Advisories this morning. Serious consideration was given to possibly upgrade the advisories for Mason, Oceana, and Van Buren. In the end, there is not enough confidence to upgrade at this point, but that option remains possible for the day shift.

The synoptic models and ensemble means over the past few days have been fairly consistent in showing lake effect ramping up today for the NNW flow areas behind the arctic front that has just dropped to near the U.S.-10 corridor as of 3 am this morning. We are still thinking the front will usher in the gusty winds, colder air, and some snow, but nothing too significant.

Experienced forecasters know that these bands can be finicky, and exact placement is a bit uncertain with just a small change in direction and orientation making a big difference. Big potential for a busted forecast at any one point. The Hi-res models are showing this reality with some showing the bands moving offshore tonight, and a few others holding them onshore, and unloading some decent snow rates and accumulations under the heavy band that is expected.

Looking at individual members, their ensemble means, and the HREF, there are more sets of data showing the bands moving offshore tonight, and shifting the heavy snow over the lake and down in Berrien county vs. Van Buren County. Given we have the advisory out already, and the confidence is not high enough to upgrade at this time, we will give the forecast/headlines a chance to work out. We will try to message more information than usual about localized heavier amounts.

One thing that supports this thinking is the hi-res models are showing multiple weak sfc waves embedded in the flow. Each of these will enhance the snow near them, but should try to push the flow more NNE in their wake. In addition, the colder air dropping down in place over the region will tend to develop a land breeze component that is likely to try and push the band offshore just a little bit.

- Snow showers Fri through Tue, especially west of U.S.-131

Much of our time this morning was focused on the potential significant impacts for the first 24 to 36 hours of the forecast.

Nothing general has changed for the period from Friday through next Tuesday. We continue to have high confidence that upper cyclonic flow will set up shop over the region, bringing plenty of snow chances with short waves, and enhanced lake effect for the western half of the forecast area. Timing of individual waves and exact flow regimes will be difficult with so many waves expected. There is plenty of time to fine tune the forecast details once this event over the next 36 hours tapers off.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 650 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

The cold front is making its way through the terminals this morning. Through 1145z, it has made it through KMKG and KGRR. Ahead of the front are rain showers and winds from the WSW. Winds become more NNW behind the front and showers change to snow quickly. This is all occurring with mainly MVFR conditions. There will be a lull after the front passing through, and the better snow showers developing. The heavier snow showers with IFR to LIFR likely will be very late this morning into mid-afternoon at the terminals. The worst conditions will be at KMKG where winds will be the strongest, snow showers will be the heaviest, and blowing snow will be the worst.

After about 20-22z, the snow showers will taper off in coverage and intensity into the evening. Eventually all snow showers will likely be offshore over Lake Michigan. We expect at least some partial clearing, with the best chance inland. These conditions should continue through the end of this forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 344 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

No changes needed to the Gale Warning. Latest model data all continues to support solid Gale winds today with the strong cold air advection coming in over the warmer Great Lakes.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ037-043- 050-064-071. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.