textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather Tonight and Saturday

- Deep low pressure moves through the Great Lakes Sun/Mon

- Lake effect snow and significant wind potential Monday

- Turning even colder late in the work week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Quiet weather Tonight and Saturday

The freezing rain moved off to the east of the area around midday. Temperatures have risen above freezing in most areas with the exception being in our far north along U.S. 10 from Big Rapids to the north and east towards Evart, Harrison and Mt. Pleasant. Highway speeds have returned to normal per the MIdrive website.

Low clouds will linger tonight and into the day on Saturday as low level moisture remains trapped beneath a subsidence inversion, which is a pretty common situation this time of year. We are not expecting precipitation tonight or Saturday as high pressure will be in control of the area weather and temperatures at 850mb are warm enough to rule out lake generated precipitation.

- Deep low pressure moves through the Great Lakes Sun/Mon

All of the focus now shifts to a powerful storm in the models that is forecast to move through the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. A Colorado low consolidates and emerges from the lee of the Rockies Saturday evening. The low at this point is fairly week around 1000mb. Precipitation will develop well in advance of the low as it moves to near Kansas City, MO by 700am on Sunday. A warm front to the east of the low will drive rain for most of Southwest Lower Michigan Saturday night into Sunday. The climatological cold spot in the CWA, our NE four counties of Osceola, Clare, Mecosta and Isabella could see another round of freezing rain as the warm air overspreads lingering cold are near the ground. Any freezing rain is expected to be on the lighter side before the warm air switches all the precipitation to rain on Sunday. That said, there may be enough for Winter Weather Adv potential once again as we see some light icing potential on roadways. Holding off on any headlines for this at this point, but we will be watching this time frame closely.

Rain will switch to snow Sunday night as a powerful cold front sweeps east through the forecast area. We will likely reach the 50s in Southern Lower Michigan Sunday evening before temps plunge behind the cold front. By daybreak on Monday the 50s will be gone and temperatures in the forecast should have fallen into the 20s in all areas.

- Lake effect snow and significant wind potential Monday

The aforementioned low tracks from Kansas City Sunday morning, to Southern Lake Michigan by Sunday evening, deepening all the while. The low then treks across Lower Michigan and ends up over Lake Huron by Monday morning. The low deepens further during this time frame. On Monday the GFS and ECMWF both have sub 980mb surface pressures. The GFS bottoms out at 971mb midday on Monday, while the ECMWF reaches 976mb. Both of those pressures are fairly rare for any time of year. The deep low pressure will combine with high pressure in the plains states of 1035-1040mb. A nearly 70mb difference potentially between Lake Huron and the Dakota. Both the GFS and ECWMF ensembles are indicating the potential for 40-50 mph winds across the area. The mean wind gusts off the ECWMF ensemble at the southern Lake Michigan buoy site is 60+ mph with max gusts higher than that. Bottom line, the pressure difference that will be seen on Monday across the area will be significant with the potential for wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Gusts along the lakeshore would be even higher. What we will be watching in the next couple of days will be the trends on depth of the low and strength of the high. There has been continuity in the models and this is leading to increasing confidence in both wind and lake effect snow.

As for the snow, synoptic scale rain will switch to lake effect snow Sunday night into Monday. Lake effect snow will continue from Monday into Tuesday with accumulations expected. The snow will be spread across all of Lower Michigan given the strength of the wind. As colder air pours in on Monday and the snow becomes drier and more powdery visibility concerns will develop. Winter headlines will obviously be forth coming with later shifts as Monday approaches. All headlines will be on the table given the strength of the wind, which when combined with accumulating lake effect snow will make for major travel concerns.

- Turning even colder late in the work week

Very cold air works in for late in the work week as 850mb temperatures plunge to -20C. We will likely keep light lake effect snow ongoing mid to late week. Lake effect snow when combined with these temperatures makes for travel concerns as any light snow turns into ice where cars travel. Temperatures will likely reach levels where salt does not work well. Highs on Thursday for instance will only be in the teens.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1252 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

IFR and lower conditions will continue through at most TAF sites for most of the period. The rain showers continue to move to the east. However, the low level moisture will remain with IFR to LIFR cigs continuing at all TAF sites through 00Z. There should be slight improvement along the lakeshore around 06Z which could bring MKG to MVFR. Vsbys will remain MVFR to IFR through 00Z with some LAN and GRR potentially dropping to LIFR after 06Z. Vsbys will improve towards morning, after 09Z with cigs slowly improving tomorrow morning after 15Z.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.