textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Becoming wet, windy, and colder through Friday

- Extended dry period with moderating temperatures next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Becoming wet, windy, and colder through Friday

Everything remains on track for the evolution of our weather from today through Friday evening, with no major changes noted at this time.

Plenty of clouds remain from the stratocumulus clouds that moved overhead on Wednesday. There are some breaks in this, but high clouds are widespread, and the holes in the lower clouds are filling in. We will see deep moisture advect over the area this afternoon as the strengthening low level jet associated ahead of the upper wave and developing sfc low will approach late this afternoon. It is with this feature that we will see the most widespread rain with this entire system. The sliver of instability (elevated in nature based between 850 and 700 mb) that may affect the I-94 corridor would also be maximized at that time. All of this would be through just before 06z when the low level jet peels away and the occluded front moves through.

The next wave of showers will then come right ahead of the secondary cold front/cold conveyor belt that will surge in from the NW. This comes through centered around 12z Friday give or take a couple of hours depending on the northern or southern portion of the forecast area. This is associated at the leading edge of the upper trough and cyclonic flow arriving. The passage of these features will ultimately shift the mean low level flow to become from the NNE. Lake effect rain showers will be likely initially from the NW, and will shift offshore by late afternoon. It is from mid morning until the wind shifts offshore when the best chance of lake induced thunder will be possible with just short of 1,000 J/kg of CAPE available.

Wind will be another aspect of this system. Right now, it looks like most places will see gusts to around 40 mph Friday. May just be short of advisory criteria inland, where instability will be a bit less than over the warmer waters.

A few showers will remain possible inland through the daylight hours, and a few may linger into mid-evening. It will be shortly after 00z Saturday the the upper trough moves out, and the flow becomes anti-cyclonic.

- Extended dry period with moderating temperatures next week

Strong subsidence will build in quickly behind the departure of the upper trough by Saturday morning. The upper air pattern over the CONUS then transitions to a much more amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern from the West Coast to East Coast in almost an Omega block.

The strong upper trough on Friday will close off along the East Coast, and strong energy moves toward the West Coast from the Pacific. This will place Michigan in between under the influence of the strong ridge. This means plenty of dry weather, with sunny days and cool nights. There will be attempts of short waves trying to flatten the ridge. It seems that the ridge should remain intact through at least mid-week.

Later in the week, there have been indications that there may be a trough that tries to close off overhead next Thursday. Way too much uncertainty seven days out to try to pin down the details. Generally speaking, we will see above average temperatures, and below average precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

All of the terminals have seen the low clouds move overhead as expected this morning. These high clouds are right near the VFR/MVFR threshold, give or take a couple of hundred feet higher or lower. We do expect that ceilings will drop slightly if anything. There may be a few breaks, but would expect cloud cover to dominate.

Rain is still expected to move in after 18z or so. It will initially stay MVFR ceilings and VFR visibilities, but visibilities will drop into the evening. The heavier rain will move out by 04-05z, and we will see a relative break move in. Showers will move back in as the next part of the system moves in from the NW. It is then that winds will begin to become gusty, to about 25-30 knots from the west with lake effect showers.

MARINE

Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

We will be issuing a Gale Warning for the core of the upcoming wind/wave event, with a Small Craft Advisory on the front end of it from this evening through the beginning of the Gale Friday morning.

Winds will increase quickly with the first surge of colder air late this evening, and overnight. The strongest of the winds will come with the deep colder air that arrives Friday morning. Very unstable conditions over the lake will allow all of the wind aloft to reach the sfc. Waves will build quickly also.

After a break on Saturday with high pressure overhead, winds will increase once again Saturday night through Sunday night under a tight gradient from the high to our south, to a strong low across Canada.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849.