textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog expected again tonight

- Mixed precipitation possible with thunderstorms Wednesday

- Mixed precipitation with thunderstorms possible again late week

- Low chances for accumulating snow this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Fog expected again tonight

There is disparity among guidance sources about how much fog we should expect overnight and Tuesday morning. Given that the environment won't be terribly different from previous mornings, we should expect a repeat of at least some fog. The NBM deterministic guidance is very aggressive in advertising widespread visibilities (vsbys) of a quarter mile or less. Other short range guidance, including the HREF, shows around a 50 percent chance of vsbys dropping below a mile. Surface wind guidance suggests a bit of a col setting up somewhere across our southwest forecast area (that is, far southwest Lower MI). This could promote localized dense fog - and perhaps not coincidentally, this is where visibilities are forecast to be the lowest.

- Mixed precipitation possible with thunderstorms Wednesday

Model guidance has been consistent with keeping a 10-20 percent chance of accumulating freezing rain (FZRA) across our far northeastern zones, including Clare and Osceola counties. This looks like a case where the leading edge of precipitation approaching from the south encounters reinforcing cold, dry easterly flow just north of the lifting warm front. This would provide a brief window of FZRA with accumulations on the order of a couple hundredths of an inch. The warm front should make steady progress north through the CWA during the day, which should greatly limit the impacts with any ice accumulation that manages to occur.

SPC has included general thunder for our entire CWA in the latest Day 3 outlook. This agrees with a wide range of guidance sources, including both NCAR and NSSL Machine Learning (ML) models, as well as with deterministic guidance such as the last couple runs of ECMWF Lightning Flash Density. Probabilities for severe thunderstorms are quite low...we estimate 5-10 percent chances of this occurring.

Highs Wednesday still look quite warm with NBM giving a greater than 50 percent of maximum temperatures reaching 60F along I-96 (away from the immediate lakeshore) and a greater than 80 percent chance of this happening along and south of I-94. The AIGEFS is not quite as aggressive, keeping our southern forecast area more in the 50s. Regardless, we have good confidence that Wednesday will see temperatures somewhere around 20 degrees above normal.

- Mixed precipitation with thunderstorms possible again late week

There is significant disparity among the model solutions regarding what to expect with the next wave of low pressure, but the most plausible scenario at this point is precipitation lifting north into the area starting Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms will also be possible during this time. Minimum temperatures Friday morning drop below freezing up towards US-10, where there could be a mix of rain and snow, and this wintry mix is expected to spread southwards during the day Friday. This is admittedly a rather precise description, but one that is quite subject to change given the relatively poor predictability at this forecast range.

- Low chances for accumulating snow this weekend

Impacts are expected to be limited this weekend. Snow eventually becomes the most likely precipitation type with little to no accumulations expected. Temperatures at 850mb won't be particularly cold; medium range ensemble guidance shows only a 40 percent chance of less than -10C, which is marginally favorable for lake effect. Highs should climb into the lower/mid 30s both days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 640 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR with gusty westerly winds will slacken this evening. Expecting fog overnight with periods of IFR and lower Fog/Mist between 06Z to 15Z tonight into tomorrow. It is possible for fog to drop below a mile at times and while less likely, below a 1/2SM in some locations. Vsbys will improve from the south to the north. The southern TAF sites of AZO, BTL and JXN will improve around 15Z with GRR, MKG and LAN improving after 18Z.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.