textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and unsettled Today through Monday

- Moderating temperatures and quiet mid-week

- More chances for rain late week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Cold and unsettled Today through Monday

The warmer and wet conditions multiple times over the last week are a distant memory already for the area, as we have much colder air having arrived and dry weather this morning compared to the downpours from yesterday morning. We have seen the upper flow flip from the SSW yesterday, to WNW this morning. The is reminiscent of the pattern from much of the winter.

We have the upper cyclonic flow now over the area through Monday night. This means we have short wave activity that will bring some small chances of precipitation to the area. The first one of these will come through this morning. Even with the upper jet being south of the area, the air is not cold enough for a meaningful lake contribution. In addition, there is very little moisture in place after the front yesterday swept it out of the area. It will be cold enough though that much of the shower activity will be snow showers.

The next short wave in the series arrives toward 06z Monday. Once again moisture will be lacking with this short wave. Then, temperatures moderate a bit, and temperature profiles would support more rain than snow even being at night. This changes for the final short wave that comes through later Monday, as we will see -13C approach the forecast area at 850 mb. The thing that is saving the area from accumulating snow is the upper flow is going anti- cyclonic, which limits the snow showers on Monday. There could be some nice quick bursts of snow showers on Monday with the final wave.

- Moderating temperatures and quiet mid-week

Tuesday and Wednesday are looking like the quietest periods of the week. We see a fairly strong sfc ridge build over the area on Tuesday in the wave of the late Monday system. This ridge is forecast to be up around 1036 mb as it builds toward the area. It will hold just enough to keep the precipitation with the next system just west of the area through Wednesday.

We will see a significant difference in the temperatures from Tuesday to Wednesday. 850 mb temps go from around -11C on Tuesday, to around +7C on Wednesday. It will take a little bit to advect that warm weather in the area, but it should arrive by later Wednesday afternoon.

- More chances for rain late week

The sfc ridge moves out by Thursday, and allows the next system to drop in from the WNW on Thursday. The next system will be coming in from the NW, but will have quite a southerly flow ahead of it. This flow will be able to draw moisture northward from the Gulf. This will bring the area a chance of rain on Thursday.

The front drops south of the area by Friday, and gets hung up just south of the MI/IN/OH state border. It will then become stationary briefly, waiting for the next wave to ride along it, and potentially bring more rain to the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 644 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

We are starting to see MVFR ceilings float back over the terminals after a few hour break from the lower clouds. A few flurries or light snow showers will become possible for a few hours this morning, before moving out toward noon. Ceilings will eventually lift to VFR again by mid-late afternoon. We could even see skies partially clear out for a few hours late this afternoon and evening.

We will see another batch of showers move in then after 00z tonight. Ceilings will be higher at first, with little to no restriction to visibility. Then low level moisture returns, and we will see all sites go down to MVFR. The showers should be mainly rain this time with the column having warmed a bit compared to today.

MARINE

Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

We will be holding on to the Small Craft Advisory as is this morning, through this evening. Winds could be close to Gales at times through the next few ours, but this is more marginal than last evening was. The ending time of the advisory lines up well with the latest wave forecast.

We will see a brief break then tonight, before winds increase once again, likely needing another headline for Monday, and maybe even a Gale.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Rainfall of 1-3 inches across Southwest Michigan in the past 24 hours adds to the previous accumulations for a roughly 4-6 inch rainfall total over the last week.

With the heaviest rain across the Grand River basin, this will lead to river flooding over the next several days. River Flood Warnings have been issued for the Grand River and its tributaries in Lansing, the Portage River at Vicksburg, the Muskegon River at Newaygo and Bridgeton, the Grand River at Comstock park, and the Thornapple River at Caledonia and Hastings. For the most part rivers will peak at minor flood stage, with the exception of Comstock Park and Robinson Township (the latter of which is in a watch) where moderate flooding is forecast.

The high water will work its way through Grand River system over the next several days, with flooding forecast along the Grand River from Ionia to Grand Rapids, to Robinson Township. Given flooding is 48-96 hours away for these areas, river flood watches have been issued, with the potential for warnings as we get closer to the event.

Numerous other rivers will reach Action Stage over the coming days, some like the Muskegon River at Evart getting close to minor flood stage. People near area rivers should monitor the latest National Weather Service forecasts.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.