textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain Continues into Thursday; Lakeshore Rain Chances Friday

- Cooler Temperatures Settle in Through The Weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Light rain showers persist today, shift to the lakeshore Friday.

Behind yesterday afternoon's cold front, the combination of cooler temperatures aloft (850mb temps of 2-4C), warm lake temperatures (14- 16C), and ambient low level moisture upstream continues to produce light but widespread lake-enhanced showers across lower Michigan. The greatest coverage early this morning has been north of a South Haven to Lansing line due to persistent southwesterly low level flow, with peak strength roughly along the US-131 corridor. While these showers will fluctuate through the morning and afternoon due to subtle temperature/wind fluctuations, these showers should largely persist. Meanwhile, expect much more typical temperatures for early November, with highs expected to top out in the low to mid 50s...very near seasonal averages.

Later this evening, a reinforcing cold front will push through the area as a remnant surface low slowly moves southeast across Lake Huron. Behind this front, cold air advection will bring 850 mb temperatures down to around -2 to -4C, resulting in a nearly 15-19C difference from Lake Michigan water temperatures. However, winds will abruptly shift to the north-northwest behind the front as cyclonic flow develops, and eventually to almost due northerly. So, while lake-enhanced (and eventually purely lake effect) rain showers may intensify, most of these are expected to shift out to the open waters and along the immediate lakeshore by Friday morning. Meanwhile, ambient light rain that is not driven by lake effects are expected to gradually diminish through the night and Friday morning, so many interior areas should see mostly dry conditions during the day Friday. This may take longer to materialize in our far northeast (roughly M-20 and north) as these areas will be closer to the surface low, and may also see remnant lake effect bands from the northern Lakes. It also wouldn't be a shock to see a few wet (and non-accumulating) snowflakes in the higher terrain of our far north early Friday morning, but this should be short-lived if it materializes.

Otherwise, expect temperatures to dip into the 30s by early Friday morning, with perhaps a brief, light freeze in our far north. Friday afternoon will likewise be much cooler, with highs only topping out in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees, just a smidge below the daily average but on par with a typical early November day.

- Cooler, more seasonable temperatures continue this weekend onward.

Lake effect showers should diminish by Friday night, and from here out the Great Lakes will enter a generally dry northwest flow pattern, with a more active southern stream across the southern CONUS. A weak "clipper" type shortwave will pass the area to the northeast Sunday, which should reinforce seasonably cool air but is not expected to produce meaningful precipitation chances, lake- effect or otherwise. Instead, we will see dry conditions through the weekend, with morning lows near or slightly below freezing afternoon highs in the 50s. Longer range guidance also suggests that shortwave ridging may drive a very modest warming trend early next week, but for the most part temperatures are likely to remain near or just above average, with minimal precipitation chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1252 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

The main concern throughout the 06Z TAF period is the continuation of MVFR ceilings and periodic light showers. Lake-enhanced rain showers have developed at most terminals overnight, but the most frequent showers are impacting GRR and MKG. This is expected to persist through the morning and into the afternoon. Early this evening, a cold front will switch winds from the southwest to the northwest, and may briefly reduce coverage of showers near the end of the period due to the more northerly wind direction. However, this may not completely end showers at terminals closer to the lakeshore, particularly at GRR/MKG/AZO/BTL. Ceilings are expected to remain MVFR, and may dip briefly to IFR at times, with periodic visibility reductions due to rain.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.