textproduct: Grand Rapids

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Thaw/Freeze this week with Rain to Snow on Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Thaw/Freeze with Rain to Snow on Thursday

After a long stretch of arctic cold, milder air advects into Lower Michigan the next couple days culminating in rain on Thursday ahead of an eastward surging cold front, followed by a change to snow and slippery travel for Friday.

For tonight, we will have to monitor an area of warm air advection showers coming in from the west into northern Lower Michigan, which could bring light freezing precip, most likely in the form of freezing drizzle, across the northern tier of the forecast area overnight. Forecast soundings show an unsaturated DGZ but not much lift through the low cloud layer, so any precip should be light enough that travel impacts are not expected.

A surface low will be tracking north of Lower Michigan on Thursday with rain breaking out early in the day as the warm conveyor belt feeds moisture northward. Forecast soundings show some elevated instability and low-topped convection is possible across SE Lower Michigan by afternoon. Current forecast total rain on Thursday is around .30 to .40 of an inch. With above freezing temps and winds gusting over 20 mph, we expect snowmelt as well but a quick freeze up on Thursday night should prevent most of the liquid from reaching the rivers.

There could be impacts to travel for the Friday morning commute as residual water on pavement from snowmelt and rain freezes into ice. Lake-enhanced snow showers expected to add an inch or two of powder on top of the ice, prolonging travel impacts on untreated surfaces into the evening commute.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 632 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

LLWS around 40 knots can be expected tonight. Areas of MVFR and isolated IFR are possible after midnight as low level moisture increases. Conditions should improve to VFR on Wednesday morning. Southwest winds will gust over 20 knots at times this evening, especially near Lake Michigan.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

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