textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain Showers Today

- Slight Chances (20 to 30 percent) for Rain This Weekend

- Unsettled Pattern Next Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Rain Showers Today

A shortwave trough is currently moving into the area bringing scattered rain showers. Most unstable CAPE values will increase into this morning around a couple hundred J/kg. Therefore can't rule out some isolated thunder. Ahead of the cold front, southwest winds will pick up with gusts around 25 mph this morning and early afternoon. As the front moves through late this morning and afternoon skies will clear with lighter northwest winds.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s with a chance for temperatures below freezing along and north of US-10. Friday dry conditions are expected with highs only in the mid 50s to low 60s.

- Slight Chances (20 to 30 percent) for Rain This Weekend

A subtle feature may clip southwest Michigan Saturday bringing some slight chances (20 to 30 percent) for rain. What ensemble members show rain keep any amounts light (less than a tenth of an inch). Timing wise, rain (if it occurs) looks to be during the morning and afternoon.

Sunday is trending drier in the NBM with questionable low level moisture and better mid level moisture. Will still be on the lookout for some showers, but dry air toward the surface may delay any additional rainfall.

- Unsettled Pattern Next Week

Taking another look at the long range ensembles and cluster analysis, there continues to be differences in the overall synoptic pattern next week. Monday is trending drier, with more members focusing on Tuesday for rainfall. Chances then continue through the rest of the week with trough moving through the Plains. Chances will be tied to the timing of this feature and how it evolves. This trough will move onshore Sunday and with better sampling more details should become clearer.

Within the largely southerly flow next week temperatures will remain mild for this time of year with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

An approaching front will bring southwest winds gusting around 20 knots, rain showers, and MVFR ceilings. Thunder cannot be ruled out, however confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Showers are currently moving into the KLDM and shortly KMKG area and will continue to track east. Showers may decrease in coverage mid morning, before picking back up during the late morning and afternoon as the front pushes through. This afternoon we'll see a period of MVFR ceilings. Some guidance shows the potential for low MVFR and IFR ceilings (10 to 20 percent chance).

As the front clears TAF sites this afternoon 18-22Z, light northwest winds will move in along with clear skies which will continue overnight into Friday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Southwest winds gusting around 20 to 25 knots have been observed largely north of South Haven. Winds will continue to build before the front moves through later this morning and early afternoon. Wave heights around 3 to 5 feet are expected with 4 foot waves remaining north of South Haven. Waves drop below 4 feet this afternoon but we could see winds and waves approach Small Craft Advisory levels for a brief period tonight.

Winds and waves are expected to remain below Advisory conditions Friday into next week.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ844>849.