textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect showers and clouds today

- Dry and warmer through mid-week with rain chances returning late week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Lake effect showers and clouds today

The trough that has been over the area for several days continues to linger today with sub-zero 850mb temps. This will keep lake effect stratus across the area, with lake effect showers over the lake into the lakeshore counties as winds move from north-northeasterly to northwesterly. Thermal profiles suggest snow mixing in is possible before daybreak though no accumulation is expected if this does occur.

- Dry and warmer through mid-week with rain chances returning late week

The breakdown of a Rex block will move the aforementioned trough off to the east with ridging and high pressure driving weather for the first half to two thirds of next week. With 850mb temps climbing into the 6C-8C range this will lead to warmer and dry conditions with increased sunshine. Low pressure and a cold front return late week, with a shortwave expected to ride the northern periphery of the ridge. This does bring some rain chances back to the area. Highs will be near 60 by the latter part of the week, notably above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Primary concern for this forecast package is lake effect clouds and showers. Satellite shows lake effect cloud cover advancing on the area from the north tonight with ceilings expected to fall to MVFR levels Saturday morning. They will remain there, below 2kft at times at LAN/JXN, through at least mid evening Saturday. Guidance is known to be a bit optimistic when it comes to the clearing of lake induced stratus so MVFR conditions may need to be extended in future updates. Low chance (approx 30%) of showers clipping MKG in the morning Saturday as winds shift more onshore. MVFR visbys are possible in any resulting showers.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ844-845. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ846>849.