textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat to continue with wildfire smoke likely moving overhead

- Slow cooling trend starts Thursday with small chances of rain

- Best rain chances arrive early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Heat to continue with wildfire smoke likely moving overhead

Large and strong upper ridge is almost right overhead this afternoon per the upper air charts, and per the visible satellite imagery with the wildfire smoke around its periphery circling the state.

The ridge axis is going to slowly drift southward over the next couple of days. The hottest temperatures are expected to be today and tomorrow with the highest heights aloft, and with better mixing on Wednesday and similar temperatures at 850 mb. We extended the Heat Advisory through Wednesday earlier to just keep things simple from the messaging aspect of this.

The upper ridge axis shifting south is also likely going to allow the wildfire smoke from the massive fires north of Lake Superior to come further south. Michigan EGLE has addressed this by issuing a statewide air quality alert for Wednesday. Some of the smoke models indicate this will come in the latter half of Wednesday for most of our area.

- Slow cooling trend starts Thursday with small chances of rain

In addition to the smoke plume dropping down, it appears that a very weak front will drop down also Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Temperatures aloft will be more noticeably cooler going from +25C today to +19C Thursday. Better mixing will offset some of this cooling aloft, but we will see a slight cooling trend down for sfc max temps also of a couple of degrees F.

The front will lift back north as a warm front late Friday and Friday night. The various models indicate that there will be some increase in the chance of showers/storms Friday afternoon. These look to be mostly air mass storms as the return flow in the wake of the front moving north will bring much more humid conditions. These should mostly dissipate after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating.

Shower/storm chance then return Saturday afternoon and evening as the low driving the front northward pushes through. The past few model runs have a better organized short wave dropping down during peak heating on Saturday. This is potentially increasing the threat for some strong to severe storms. Definitely not set in stone yet being 4 days out. This stronger shortwave moving through, will allow for a drier and cooler day on Sunday with a better ridge moving in.

- Best rain chances arrive early next week

The system that looked to move in Sunday yesterday, has now been delayed until Monday. This delay is likely due to a more amplified flow regarding the short waves Saturday and Monday. The short wave on Monday is larger scale, with widespread vorticity advection and cooler mid levels helping with overall instability. In addition, it looks to pick up larger scale moisture ahead of it.

The amplification also looks to be trending the air mass behind the now Monday system to be much cooler. Cooler like 850 mb temperatures dropping to +7C or so. We will see about that, as the Euro tends to overamplify systems at this time range.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 757 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Not much significant weather tonight under clear skies and light southwest winds. There may be about 20 knots of LLWS below 1,000 feet, as southwest winds at that height strengthen to about 20 to 25 knots between 05 and 10 Z. Some models develop isolated shower or thunderstorm cells vicinity of LAN/JXN after 21 Z, moving southeast. A prob30 will cover that chance for now. Also will be monitoring visibility trends on Wednesday as wildfire smoke moves southward into the area from northern Michigan. Fair to say MVFR to IFR visibility with smoke is possible from late Wednesday through Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Weak pressure gradient remaining in place through Friday with the ridge nearby will keep conditions short of criteria for wind/wave headlines. Winds will creep up some, but will stay below 20 knots, mainly from the SW through Friday. Smoke will likely become a factor for visibilities later Wednesday. Some visibilities could drop to 1- 3 miles.

Our next marine hazards event looks likely to occur on Saturday. This is when a more noticeable front will approach and move through with cooler air. This will bring conditions up to near advisory/statement levels.

CLIMATE

Issued at 214 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Here are the high temperature records for July 14 and 15.

Location July 14 July 15

Grand Rapids 102 (1936) 95 (2013) Lansing 101 (1936) 99 (1977) Muskegon 94 (1995) 93 (1995) Kalamazoo 108 (1936) 103 (1936) Battle Creek 104 (1936) 100 (1977) Holland 98 (1995) 98 (1932)

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Wednesday night for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059- 064>067-071>074. MARINE...None.