textproduct: Grand Rapids
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Low chance of Rain on Saturday
- Showers and Thunderstorms Possible Late Monday into Tuesday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026
- Low chance of Rain This Weekend
Surface high pressure moves east today and return flow brings some moisture. There could be a few showers this afternoon and again on Sunday as a weak surface boundary moves through today followed by an area of mid-level frontogenesis on Sunday. For today, we will follow the hi-res ARW model and have slight chance POPs across the northern zones where the better moisture and lift is located. For Sunday, low chance POPs will extend across the central forecast area.
- Showers and Thunderstorms Possible Late Monday into Tuesday
A shortwave trough ejects out of the northern Rockies with a surface low tracking into Canada early next week. A trailing cold front is expected to touch off showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. Instability and deeper moisture is across northern Lower Michigan pooling ahead of the cold front, which sinks south through the forecast area on Tuesday. Precipitable water surges close 2 inches, so heavy rain potential is there as the front will be moving slowly and MBE vectors are less than 10 knots.
The front stalls across the southern zones on Wednesday, with a showers and thunderstorms possible into Thursday as a surface low tracks along the front across southern Lower Michigan.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026
VFR conditions will continue through Saturday evening. Southwest winds will increase this morning with some gusts over 20 knots possible during the afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Winds and waves will briefly be hazardous to small craft today before subsiding this evening. Stronger winds are expected Tuesday when southwest gales are expected.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ037-043-050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ847>849.
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