textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- A few rain showers today and tonight, changing to snow Wed morning

- Becoming much colder and snowy this weekend and beyond

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- A few rain showers today and tonight, changing to snow Wed morning

The next system to affect the area is rapidly advancing toward the area this morning, evident by water vapor imagery and the regional radar composite. This system will not be impactful for the area, but will set the stage for a more impactful system late tonight and Wednesday morning.

We are looking at a high probability/low amount light rain event coming through late this morning/early this afternoon with the wave to our NW. As has been the case with most of these weak systems coming in from the WNW, this one also has limited moisture available. Forecast soundings/RH cross sections show very little moisture available below 6k ft, and a sufficient melting layer for just about all rain. It looks like that we will see a brief period of light showers, and then dry out for much of the rest of the day with even some partial clearing possible for the afternoon.

This wave will be still moving out when the next wave will arrive with a vengeance late tonight. We maintain longer wave troughing behind today's wave, and we see a northern stream wave with origins up near the arctic diving south quickly toward the area later tonight. We will see some precipitation break out as light drizzle or scattered showers ahead of this wave this evening and early overnight.

Then we will see the sfc arctic front associated with the wave diving south rush through arriving at the U.S.-10 corridor around 06z tonight, and exit the I-94 corridor by 11-12z. This front is expected to have a line of more intense showers, starting as rain, and quickly changing to snow, likely associated with strong wind gusts. Snow amounts will not be much with this front, but the impacts will come with the abrupt change, including temps going from the mid-upper 30s to mid 20s within about 2-3 hours causing wet sfcs to freeze rather quick.

If there is a bright side to this transition, it is that it should occur mostly before the morning commute, vs happen right during the commute which would cause more impacts. Right now, given duration, snow amounts, winds, some blowing snow, etc...there does not look to be enough to justify a headline at this time with this alone. This scenario looks like Special Weather Statement type of situation.

Now, lake effect will get going almost immediately as the cyclonic flow and cold pool aloft will move overhead. Inversion heights will rise to about 7-8k ft, delta t's will increase to about 20C, and low level lapse rates increase to almost 8c/km. Lake effect will favor the far NW and SW corners of the forecast area with the flow becoming from the NNW. This lake effect combined with the impacts from the front earlier may be enough to justify some winter headlines. We still have a little bit of time to fine tune the details on this.

The lake effect will wind down over our area Wednesday evening and night. This will be the result of the flow going more NNE (offshore) and a temporary upper ridge coming in and lowering inversion heights with the cyclonic flow moving out briefly.

- Becoming much colder and snowy this weekend and beyond

After the break on Thursday, the next wave will arrive on Friday. We see some warming take place ahead of the sfc system, along with precipitation breaking out. Then, the long wave upper low and cyclonic flow aloft settles over the area once again. This will reactivate the lake effect as much colder air comes back in. With short waves embedded in the large scale low, we are looking at multiple spikes in lake effect intensity.

The flow will be constantly adjusting based on the short waves and associated sfc reflections. This will be tough to pin down amounts at this time. What does look likely though is areas generally along and west of U.S.-131 will be the most impacted. This continues right through the end of the period next Monday. Needless to say, we will see snow accumulations add up steadily over the three day period from Sat-Mon for western areas. This will be accompanied by max temps likely not reaching 20F after Sat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected into Tuesday morning with some low level wind shear developing around 12Z as the low level jet moves through the region. We'll see some of those stronger gusts mix down to the surface later Tuesday morning and continuing through the day with southwest winds gusting around 25 knots. Overall confidence is not high for showers to make it south toward the TAF sites Tuesday. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR after 20Z with the potential for some drizzle after 3Z as winds shift to the west.

MARINE

Issued at 334 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

We will be upgrading the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for late tonight through Wednesday. This looks to be a solid Gale event as the gradient will be quite tight in the wake of the front dropping through, along with strong cold air advection over the warmer waters of Lake Michigan.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.