textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for Light Snow Showers Today & Thursday

- Warm Friday; Snow Possible Saturday

- Next Week: Cold Early, Then Warming

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Chance for Light Snow Showers Today & Thursday

In the wake of last night's clipper system, synoptic flow has transitioned to WNW over the Great Lakes and 850mb temps will steadily fall later this morning. Nam12 1000-850mb RH and 925-850mb omegas support some lake effect snow shower development mainly north of M-46 through late morning or early afternoon before diminishing. Bufkit overviews at RQB indicate shallow inversion heights (~5k ft) with limited lift within the DGZ. As such, snow showers are certainly possible but with limited accumulations of 0.5"-1.0" possible especially near US 10.

Flurries or light snow showers are possible north of I-96 Thursday as a very weak clipper moves through. ECMWF RH layers indicate some dry air below 850mb so it is questionable how much snow may make it through this layer. Little to no accumulation is currently forecast.

- Warm Friday; Snow Possible Saturday

Friday's warm up still looks right on track with highs reaching the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. A cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday and temperatures will fall. Aloft, a sharp 850mb gradient sets up across the region. ECMWF guidance is showing a stationary 850mb front setting up just south of Michigan, with some Fn vector convergence noted in the 850mb-500mb layer across southern Lower MI. Model soundings at GRR indicate snow potentially falling out of the 700-500mb layer with some dry air below. That is an awfully deep layer of dry air to overcome but nevertheless ECE 50th percentile QPF is still 0.05"-0.10" across the region. Light snow accumulations may occur but this is not yet a done deal, as indicated by NBM's 50/50 take on precipitation even occurring. Will see how model guidance trends with time but for now snow is in the forecast.

- Next Week: Cold Early, Then Warming

There is good confidence in chilly E/NE flow setting up Sunday into Monday and ensemble guidance max temps are showing most locations stuck in mid 20s to around 30 both days. The synoptic pattern will need to be watched Monday into Wednesday with a surface high potentially situated across the eastern Great Lakes and into Ontario as 850mb temps start to inch upward over Michigan. If any baroclinic zones set up nearby there could be some wintry mixes to contend with including a risk for some freezing rain. But for now, ensemble QPF is modest for southern Lower MI and some members do keep us dry.

As we head toward the middle of next week and beyond, positive upper height anomalies are showing up in ensemble guidance. In tandem with this, 850mb temps are expected to reach above normal levels. ECE guidance is showing anomalies of +10C over Michigan by late next week and a warming trend is almost certain at this point. Given the positioning of the 500mb heights, a deep SW flow pattern could take shape in the 8-14 day forecast period that brings not only warmth but also potentially a fair amount of rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 630 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

MVFR category should hold as ceilings around 2500 ft are expected to impact the terminals through much of the morning and potentially could extend into the afternoon, so will monitor trends. At this point it is unlikely that lake effect snow showers would occur at the terminals though if they do then MKG/GRR would be the most likely. Conditions improve to VFR area wide especially toward 00z and beyond.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.