textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain event on track for late tonight and first half of Saturday

- Showers still possible Sunday

- Mainly dry next week and warmer

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- Rain event on track for late tonight and first half of Saturday

The main trend over the past couple of days with this system coming in tonight and first part of Saturday is generally for less rain amounts overall. This is mainly due to the feed of dry air that we continue to tap from Eastern Canada that will eat away at the lighter rain on the edge of the system. The better rain will definitely be over the SE portion of the state due to the track of the upper wave and the proximity of the sfc low.

The thunder threat continues to look very weak at best for the SE corner of the forecast area. Plan views of Lifted Indices at the sfc and for elevated parcels indicate values are generally all positive for Michigan, not good for thunder.

The system should pull out quickly Saturday afternoon with the short wave exiting Lake Huron at 00z Sunday.

- Showers still possible Sunday

The longer wave trough over the Upper Midwest that is helping steer the short wave from TX will then advance toward and through the area on Sunday. The embedded waves in this feature, along with the cooler air aloft will help to fire some showers, and maybe even some isolated to scattered thunder as we have some negative values of LI's at the sfc and elevated for Sunday.

- Mainly dry next week and warmer

Rain chances will diminish significantly for Monday as the long wave upper trough over the Upper Midwest moves east of the area by Monday. We will remain under the influence of the nearly zonal jet through early next week. This pattern is conducive for weak short waves to pass through. There is likely just enough moisture for a shower to pop here or there along lake breeze boundaries or other mesoscale boundaries. The chance of this is about 10-20%, so most of the area will remain dry.

Yesterday, it was looking that we may dry out for the latter half of next week as upper ridging builds in from the west. This still looks to happen, but could could potentially close off. What this means is that we could end up with a flow aloft from the NE, and see a backdoor cool front slip through. If this were to happen, it would temper our warm up a bit next week, and keep temps from warming up too much. It also would bring much drier air in, and really limit any rain chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Mid/high clouds remain the dominant feature in the forecast this morning, and will continue through much of the day today. We will see winds increase by late morning at all sites, with gusts reaching as high as 30 knots or so this afternoon from the NE.

Lower clouds will start to move in from the south late this afternoon. These clouds will remain VFR to start with clouds coming in around 4-5k ft. The clouds will then gradually lower to lower end MVFR overnight toward the end of this forecast period. It does seem that rain will hold off until after this forecast period when the deep moisture arrives.

MARINE

Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

We continue to believe that while winds will be elevated over Lake Michigan, they will be just a notch too low to hoist an advisory at this time. Offshore flow and a cool/stable lake is the main reason, although some wind from better mixing over the warmer land mass could approach wind thresholds at times.

Once these higher offshore winds diminish on Saturday, we should see an extended quiet period for the latter half of the holiday weekend and for the foreseeable future next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

As previously mentioned, we are looking at the very least an elevated fire danger day today with the dry air and gusty winds expected. The highest danger will be the further north you go, especially into Northern Lower. Per coordination with the Land Management agencies, green up has occurred for areas south of U.S.- 10, lowering the threat a bit. The main concern is in the Jackpine Forests north of U.S.-10 where they are very volatile at this point in the green up process.

A coordination call will occur with neighboring NWS offices and State and Federal land management agencies to determine whether to handle the elevated fire danger with a Red Flag Warning, or just enhanced messaging based on fuel conditions and expected wind/low RH combinations.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.