textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers overnight into Saturday. Trend continues to the southeast

- Sunday showers remain possible

- Warm and mainly dry weather ahead

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- Showers overnight into Saturday. Trend continues to the southeast

Pattern remains fairly consistent with no major changes. Dry, easterly flow continues to dwindle down the moisture associated with the low slowly creeping northward tonight through tomorrow. The trend continues to shift the moisture to the southeast. Widespread quarter inch of rainfall is possible with upwards of a half an inch through south central Michigan. The thunder threat continues to dwindle. Latest soundings show a continued lack of instability with a decent cap through the mid levels that persists well into the afternoon. The system should trek eastward briskly Saturday afternoon.

- Sunday showers remain possible

A long wave trough is still expected to track through the region Sunday. There are some timing issues, however given the amount of moisture advection and the mid level short wave associated with it, showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon due to the frontal pattern. Best chance for showers and storms will be through Central Michigan and especially along the US 127 corridor.

- Warm and mainly dry weather ahead

The cold frontal system will move through quickly Sunday evening. Zonal flow will continue through early next week. This pattern is conducive for weak short waves to pass through. There is likely just enough moisture for a shower to pop here or there along lake breeze boundaries or other mesoscale boundaries.

Temperatures will increase through the week. Temperatures in the upper 70s into the low 80s remain likely. There remains a chance for an upper level system to retrograde from out east and bring slightly cooler air and northerly flow through the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 139 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

We have seen the lower clouds spread in over just about all of the terminals as of 05z this morning. Mid clouds remain at KMKG, but the lower clouds will move in anytime now. Conditions still remain VFR at the northern sites, to MVFR at the I-94 terminals. Conditions will deteriorate to IFR to LIFR at all sites except KMKG through the morning hours from South to North. Rain will become more widespread also.

The rain will then gradually move out from West to East this afternoon. Even with that, conditions are not expected to improve much through the rest of the day with lots of low level moisture lingering. The ceilings and visibilities will then expect to drop after sunset with less mixing.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Offshore flow and a cool/stable lake will continue and for the most part the winds will remain aloft. Some wind from better mixing over the warmer land mass could approach wind thresholds at times this afternoon and evening.

Once these higher offshore winds diminish on Saturday, we should see an extended quiet period for the latter half of the holiday weekend and for the foreseeable future next week.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.