textproduct: Grand Rapids
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KEY MESSAGES
- Lake Effect Snow Friday and Saturday
- Arctic Air into Early Next Week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025
- Lake Effect Snow Friday into Saturday
Inversion heights lower tonight as surface ridging with subsidence and drying builds in, ending the snow showers except in the far NW zones. Some clearing is possible inland which would allow temperatures to drop below 10F and possibly below zero if skies remain clear for several hours.
An a shortwave trough arrives Friday afternoon and raises inversion heights to around 10 kft. We expect lake effect snow to perk up in southwest to west flow during the afternoon. There could be a brief burst of heavier snow as an arctic front moves though Friday evening with strong low level convergence with lake effect continuing in west-norrthwest flow behind the front. Given onshore flow and strong lake instability, we expect some localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches of snow before inversion heights fall and snow showers decrease on Saturday.
- Arctic Air into Early Next Week
A vast area of arctic air pooling across northwest Canada surges southeast by the weekend, with a lobe of the polar vortex reaching Lower Michigan by Sunday. 850 MB temperatures plunge below minus 20C and should result in high temperatures being confined to the teens on Saturday and Sunday with wind chills approaching minus 10F, especially Saturday night when the core of the coldest air aloft comes through.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1210 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025
MVFR cigs will improve to VFR late this afternoon into the evening. However, there is a decent signal (40% chance) that MVFR cigs redevelop late this evening into the overnight hours, especially for LAN and GRR. The other uncertainty is the potential for steam fog development overnight with the light winds. Good signal among short range model guidance for potential steam fog development at GRR and LAN, supported by forecast hydrolapse profiles. Have introduced high MVFR/low VFR mist at present and will adjust if needed as confidence changes. Gusts to 20 knots are possible for a few hours at LAN and JXN this afternoon before winds become light and variable.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None. MARINE...None.
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