textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect showers and clouds today

- Dry and warmer through mid-week with rain chances returning late week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Lake effect showers and clouds today

The trough that has been over the area for several days continues to linger today with sub-zero 850mb temps. This will keep lake effect stratus across the area, with lake effect showers over the lake into the lakeshore counties as winds move from north-northeasterly to northwesterly. Thermal profiles suggest snow mixing in is possible before daybreak though no accumulation is expected if this does occur.

- Dry and warmer through mid-week with rain chances returning late week

The breakdown of a Rex block will move the aforementioned trough off to the east with ridging and high pressure driving weather for the first half to two thirds of next week. With 850mb temps climbing into the 6C-8C range this will lead to warmer and dry conditions with increased sunshine. Low pressure and a cold front return late week, with a shortwave expected to ride the northern periphery of the ridge. This does bring some rain chances back to the area. Highs will be near 60 by the latter part of the week, notably above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 635 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Satellite trends have shown intermittent MVFR lake effect stratocu reaching the terminals sooner than originally forecast, which is being handled with TEMPO groups for the next few hours given the more intermittent nature. Expecting widespread MVFR later this morning through at least this evening with cigs falling below 2kft at times. Have estimates for when ceilings reach VFR this evening, however model guidance has a known tendency to be too agressive in lifting ceilings to VFR so restrictions hanging on longer is definitely possible. Otherwise, expect lake effect showers to stay in the vicinity of MKG, with a low (20-30%) chance of hitting the terminal proper as winds over the lake switch to onshore this morning bringing the band of showers inland.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ844-845. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ846>849.