textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Light Snow Chances Saturday into Saturday Night

- Another Chance for Light Snow Sunday Night into Monday

- Rain/Snow Possible Tuesday

- Warmer with Rain Towards the End of Next Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

- Light Snow Chances Saturday into Saturday Night

The pattern over the next 7 days will change from our current northwest upper flow to more zonal by Sunday and then southwest (warmer) by the end of next week. We will be affected by multiple shortwaves moving through the flow through next Friday, the first of which slide through tomorrow. We will likely see a period of light snow moving across Central Lower Michigan Saturday, but lift is weak. There is very little surface reflection which correlates with the weak wave in the mid levels. Trace amounts of snow to maybe an inch in spots is all we are expecting at this point.

A brief period of lake effect snow is possible Saturday evening, but moisture depth is lacking. RH does not reach the DGZ but there is low level lift. We will have to keep an eye on the chance for some freezing drizzle Saturday evening. This is not in the forecast at this point. The lift is mainly confined and is most noticeable near the lakeshore. This can occur when we have convergence along the shoreline which we do in this case. So, feeling this lift is likely associated with some localized wind convergence and may not be a more widespread lift/freezing drizzle event. Given very low confidence, not playing this up at this time.

- Another Chance for Light Snow Sunday Night into Monday

The next wave in zonal flow sweeps through the area Sunday night and into Monday. This precipitation is associated with a brief period of strong warm air advection. The 290K surface shows 40 knots of wind directly up the pressure surfaces. While the lift is strong it does not last for more than about 3 hours. Feel we are looking at a burst of 1-2 inches of snow, possible 3 if the lift lasts a bit longer. The will most affect our northern two rows of counties or from Whitehall to Big Rapids to Mt. Pleasant northward. Some impacts to the Monday morning commute are certainly possible.

- Rain/Snow Possible Tuesday

Tuesday's system will be a warmer system. 850mb temps Saturday night will be near -11C, by the time the Tuesday system arrives we will have warmed +4C. We have a bit of snow in the forecast as well with some marginal temperatures for rain and snow, but feel this will likely be mostly rain. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 30s to around 40.

- Warmer with Rain Towards the End of Next Week

Probably the most notable system of the 7 day forecast will be next Thursday into Friday when we push 850mb temperatures to +9C (Thursday night). We have upper 40s in the forecast for Thu/Fri with deep south flow and PWATs that may increase to around 0.80 inches, which is high for January. Rainfall amounts do not look heavy at this time (0.25 to 0.50) but we will once again be melting off the snowpack with the rainfall and warm temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1132 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

No significant changes for this forecast iteration. High probability (90 percent) for flight categories to remain better than IFR through 12Z. As noted previously, we expect a chance for lake effect clouds and possible light snow beginning shortly after 12Z with the main concern being a decrease in ceilings to below fuel alternate thresholds of 2000 feet AGL. This is far from certain, however, so did not deviate from inherited PROB30s that account for this.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.