textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances for precipitation remain for Tuesday

- Warm and wet Thursday through Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Low chances for precipitation remain for Tuesday and Wednesday

Quite a dry air mass in place over the area this morning, at the surface and aloft. Surface dew points are in the single digits to lower teens, allowing temps to fall quite a bit with clear skies and light winds. This dry air mass will allow temps to warm quickly today with plenty of sunshine expected to hold. We should see temperatures 10+ degrees warmer compared to Sunday with a southerly component to the wind helping bring warmer air aloft over the area.

Clouds will be on the increase tonight as we see some upper jet energy associated with the southern stream come out of the Plains and try to move toward the area. We see some weak short wave activity actually pass through between 06 and 12z tonight. This will have no moisture to work with at that point yet.

Then we see some degree of jet coupling take place and likely stay just south of the forecast area on Tuesday as the southern branch remains just far enough away. The various models continue to show some light precipitation possible, some of which is some light freezing rain. QPF amounts are all generally 0.01 inches or a trace, with the highest amounts across the I-94 corridor.

Forecast soundings indicate that if any precipitation occurs, it would likely be mainly some drizzle/freezing drizzle. That is because there is quite a bit of dry air in the column above 925-850 mb. The trace amounts in the models look to be associated with the arrival of relatively shallow low level moisture. The window for any possible freezing precipitation is also quite small as sfc temps rise above freezing by mid-morning.

This wave will move away from the area, and additional short wave activity coming out of an upper low over the Rockies will try to bring precipitation chances to Wednesday. Once again, the chances are quite low as the southern jet axis keeps the best forcing with the short waves just south of the area. We will end up under a nice sfc ridge between the short wave activity to our south, and the polar jet well north in Canada. This is likely to keep us dry on Wednesday with temps remaining mild.

- Warm and wet Thursday through Saturday

The forecast for rain chances to increase on Thursday remains consistent with previous forecast cycles. We will see the upper low spinning over Northern California this morning gradually move over the Plains, then lift ENE toward the area on Thursday. The difference with this system is it buckles the upper jet enough that the sfc reflection helps advect better warmth and moisture from the Gulf up and over the area. This is shown in the PWAT progs as they increase to over 1.00 inches on Thursday. The sfc low is expected to pass over the forecast area, providing a direct hit for the rains.

The Thursday system should have exited the area by sunrise on Friday, providing a relative dry period for 18-24 hours before the next sfc low along the front lifts NE across the region. Even better moisture will come up over the area Friday with PWATS increasing to almost 1.5 inches. The warmer and wetter air will provide sufficient instability to support a chance of thunderstorms later Friday into early Saturday. This will also bring some of the warmest temps in this pattern to the area Friday-Saturday.

The whole system will be swept out by later Saturday with a more zonal upper air pattern redeveloping as the northern stream flattens the upper flow a bit.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 624 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Skies are mostly clear across the area early this morning. There are a few high clouds across the southern third of the forecast area. We will see a gradual thickening of the clouds, along with the ceilings slowly dropping in the afternoon The ceilings and visibilities are expected to stay VFR. Winds will generally be from the SE. They will come up slightly during the afternoon, but not enough to add another change group in.

The same scenario plays out overnight. The difference is that the lower clouds will try to move in over the I-94 terminals right at the end of this forecast period. We have added a sct025 to indicate this potential.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.