textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry tonight and Saturday

- Showers and thunderstorms late weekend through next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Dry tonight and Saturday

Latest visible loop shows some breaks in the stratocu over the lake and parts of the cwa. High pressure is nosing in from the west and we'll continue to see breaks develop throughout the afternoon and mostly clear skies overnight. This will lead to a mostly sunny Saturday.

- Showers and thunderstorms late weekend through next week

Meanwhile, a cold front stretches from near Toledo southwest to southern Missouri. This frontal boundary will begin moving north Sunday in response to the high drifting east and low pressure over the northern Plains moving east. The strengthening south flow will advect moisture northward and the warming temperatures will help increase instability. The result will be increased chances for showers and thunderstorms from Saturday night through the end of next week.

H8 temperatures rise form 0c tonight to 16c by Monday; that's pretty significant. Once the cwa gets into the warm sector, instability will rise appreciably. SBCAPE by Monday afternoon is progd to be around 2k j/kg and LI's near -6c. A strong 50-60 kt LLJ remains in place Sunday night through Tuesday night. Additionally, mid level lapse rates climb to over 7.5c/km by Monday afternoon and bulk shear values around 45 knots will be in place as well. All that is to say a lot of juice for storms will be in place. The catalyst will be short waves riding up the back side of the ridge from the Missouri Valley into Lower Michigan. NCAR AI progs already point toward higher chances for strong to severe storms Monday through Wednesday; Tuesday appears to have the highest chances at this time.

It will certainly feel like late spring next week with highs in the 70s Sunday through Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

MKG has lifted cigs to MVFR with the rest of the TAF sites at IFR conditions. Conditions will slowly improve through the afternoon into the evening, with all locations breaking out to VFR by 02z. There is a chance of patchy fog overnight, with 20-30 percent probability of MVFR or lower conditions. Not enough to warrant TAF inclusion yet but will re-evaluate with the 00z package. Clear skies then persist through the balance of the TAF period tomorrow. Northwest winds are expected for the afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight. Winds then increase from the east Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Wind and waves are not expected to be hazardous to small craft until Sunday and Monday as south flow increases ahead of the next cold front. Small craft advisories are expected then and gale warnings are possible.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

As the crest on the Grand moves downstream, we're able to slowly cancel flood warnings. We canceled the flood warning for the Thornapple River above Hastings earlier this morning. River flood warning remain on the Grand River at Robinson Twp and Comstock Park, the Maple River at Maple Rapids, and the Portage River near Vicksburg.

Dry weather is expected through Saturday, but more showers/storms are possible Saturday night and Sunday. Much of this rain (~ 1 in) is expected to fall over the Muskegon River basin, but a half inch could fall over the Grand basin too. Then Monday through Wednesday additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is possible over the area, all of which means that rivers may start rising again and go past flood stage. It's certainly something we'll keep an eye on.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.