textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow moving through the area today

- Mainly dry mid week with temperatures nearing normals

- Snow Thursday night into Friday

- Turning colder again next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 351 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Light snow moving through the area today

A mid level shortwave is approaching the area from Wisconsin this morning. Down at the surface, the wave is driving a cold front towards Southwest Lower Michigan. The front is stretched from northeast to southwest across Wisconsin at 08z. Ahead of the system a warm air advection band of snow can be seen spreading into Western Lower Michigan as of 820z. The snow is best depicted in the models on the 285k and 290k isentropic surfaces where strong upglide is noted in conjunction with low condensation pressure deficits. The snow is being enhanced by the lake with a significant flare in intensity noted in the past half hour. The lake is unstable enough to produce lake effect snow outright with delta T's in the middle teens C.

The expectation is that the warm air advection band of snow will work quickly to the east in the next 3-6 hours exiting the U.S. Highway 127 corridor in the mid/late morning hours. The heaviest snow is ongoing now and will continue for a few more hours before sweeping east/losing intensity. The depth of moisture dwindles significantly by mid to late morning and in fact the DGZ becomes unsaturated which may lead to some freezing drizzle this afternoon. Freezing drizzle is being reported upstream in WI/IL. As for the snow, the amounts being forecast have not changed with a trace to a half inch forecast in most areas and potentially an inch or two in West Central Lower Michigan from Holland northward up the shore, including areas just inland from Coopersville to Newaygo to Baldwin. Some very marginal lake effect snow may persist into tonight. Any amounts would be very light and likely contained to areas near the points of West Central Lower Michigan.

- Mainly dry mid week with temperatures nearing normals

An uneventful mid week period is expected which may be welcomed by many given what the last 2 weeks of January brought the area. While we are in a northwest flow during this time aloft with occasional shortwaves, the surface pattern will be dominated by high pressure. Very little in the way of precipitation is expected from Tuesday through Thursday. High temperatures will be in the 20s with lows in the teens which will is very close to normals for this time of year.

- Snow Thursday night into Friday

A clipper system is still forecast to move through the area during this time frame, but the trend has been for the low to pass well off to the north now. Without the boost synoptically from the low snowfall amounts will be less. We still could end up seeing a 2-4 inch snow towards Lake Michigan with a boost via lake effect, but many areas may end up with 2 inches or less. So, the weekend will be bookended with chances for snow neither of which should reach moderate impacts. Impacts will mainly be some slowed travel for a fairly short period of time.

- Turning colder again next weekend

Both the GFS and ECMWF bring a surge of colder air into the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday. The GFS drives the cold air directly into Lower Michigan where as the ECMWF is more of a glancing blow. Saturday looks to be a day like the recent past with highs only in the teens and lows in the single digits. The cold air does not stay long as it is dislodged by a push of above zero C air at 850mb out of the plains states by Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

MVFR ceilings will be moving east across Lower Michigan between 06Z and 12Z with areas of IFR in light snow arriving with the clouds. Expect patchy IFR to continue for several hours this morning before conditions improve to MVFR with areas of VFR by late afternoon or evening. South winds will go west in the afternoon and remain AOB 10 knots.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.