textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Friday: Rain/Snow and Windy

- Sunday-Monday: Significant Late-Winter Storm Possible

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Friday: Rain/Snow and Windy

High winds and some winter impacts are possible Friday as an Alberta Clipper system with a deep surface low in the mid-980s mb tracks through northern Michigan. This MSLP normalized anomaly is about minus 3.5 sigma based on the CFSR 1981-2010 climatology. A strong wind field in the lower atmosphere will be present both on the warm- advection side early Friday morning and on the cold-advection side during the day, with 40 to 50 knots of wind a few hundred to 1,000 feet above ground. HREF mean wind gusts are in the 50-60 mph range, similar to the ECMWF. A limiting factor to consider which could temper the peak gusts include clouds and precipitation occurring much of the time, which if cold air advection is modest, would reduce the lapse rates right off the surface and also reduce the mixing potential.

Temperatures will be marginally favorable for snow Friday morning, but snow is favored over rain particularly north of I-96 where the heaviest precip will be occurring prior to daybreak. HREF probability for greater than 3 inches of snow is greater than 50 percent in the higher terrain of interior Central Michigan, including around Baldwin, Big Rapids, and Clare. Amounts over 5 inches would be most favored in northern Osceola county. Near and south of I-96, impacts from snow should be more limited with light accumulations possible.

- Sunday-Monday: Significant Late-Winter Storm Possible

Global models and most of their ensemble members for the last several runs have been producing a major late-winter storm in portions of Northern Michigan between Saturday night and Monday night, and our portion of Central Michigan and the Lake Michigan shore could also be on the receiving end of some of significant winter impacts. There remain a number of differences in the details to not want to be definitive for now. However, the synoptic setup involving a sharpening Midwest upper-level trough going negative tilt, rapidly developing cyclone tracking through Lower Michigan, sharp temperature gradient (baroclinicity), and strong wind field supports concern for a disruptive event. The weather in our portion of Lower Michigan will be especially sensitive to the exact track and depth of the surface low pressure center as it passes through, approximately from southern Michigan toward Lake Huron.

Some accumulating snow is possible in our area Saturday night in the isentropic ascent of warm air out ahead of this system, followed by a day Sunday that could feature temperatures in the 30s in Ludington and 60s in Jackson (low pressure track dependent). Thunderstorms are possible in southern Michigan late Sunday, while heavy wintry precipitation occurs northwest of the low. There could be a narrow band of heavy freezing rain Sunday night in a portion of Central Michigan, with heavy snow to the north. Very cold air and strong winds on Monday may support lake-enhanced snow and blowing snow. This is a rough idea of what is possible if some of the more robust model solutions verify. The probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index from WPC currently has about a 30-50 percent chance of major winter storm impacts north of Muskegon-Mount Pleasant from Sunday night into Monday, and greater than a 60 percent chance of moderate impacts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 659 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR is likely today with a few daytime cumulus clouds possible above 3,000 feet by mid day, and west winds gusting up to 20 knots. Winds become south tonight and increase along with LLWS. Between 04 and 08Z, probability increases for ceilings and visibility will drop to MVFR/IFR with snow and rain moving through (more snow and relatively heavier to the north).

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for MIZ037-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. MARINE...None.