textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow Showers and Wind Decrease Through Tonight

- Two Rounds of Light Snow Tuesday and Wednesday

- Turning Quieter for the Weekend

UPDATE

Issued at 755 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

While conditions are slowly improving...there are still some impactful snow bands and of course blowing/drifting snow as well. Both the winds and snow should slowly decrease over the next few hours. Extended winter headlines to midnight cover the remaining expected travel impacts from blowing/drifting...even though additional snow amounts will be limited.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

- Snow Showers and Wind Decrease Through Tonight

Snow shower coverage has migrated closer to the lakeshore this afternoon as the surface low peels away from the region and 1000-700 mb RH and omegas decrease inland while still being present west of US 131. That said, the strong boundary layer winds continue to blow bands of snow well inland. Without the synoptic boost via deeper moisture and lift, purely lake effect snow showers will be steadiest along the lakeshore counties though the intensity of the bands will be decreasing. Although consideration was given to cancellation of inland headlines and a downgrade to Advisory along the lakeshore, the continuation of snow showers and blowing snow for a few hours leads to holding course on the headlines in spite of a lack of heavy accumulations given such strong winds. Compensating for lower accumulation rates this evening will be winds continuing to gust in the 35 to 45 mph range for most areas, leading to blowing snow in open areas and thus some travel impacts continuing into the early evening before improving. Overall, additional snowfall of 1" or less is expected in the Advisory area and 2" or less in the Warning through 7pm. With the transient nature of the daytime and early evening bands, expect variability in accumulations and visibility.

Peak wind gusts today have eclipsed 60 mph at some of our coastal observing sites, while inland gusts have been 40-50 mph just about everywhere. The worst of the winds will be in our rear view mirror as they should decline into the 30-40 mph range by sunset and then 15-30 mph after that. In terms of snowfall accumulations, reports this morning indicated 1"-4" mainly along and west of US 131. Additional afternoon and evening accumulations will bring storm total amounts into the 3"-7" range along/west of US 131 with some higher amounts possible along the lakeshore.

- Two Rounds of Light Snow Tuesday and Wednesday

There are a couple of midweek systems that will bring some accumulating snow to most of the region, especially near and west of US 131. The 18z Tuesday to 06z Wednesday time frame is the first period of interest. A weak 500 mb shortwave (Canadian Clipper) moves through Tuesday afternoon with solid 1000-700 mb RH and modest 925- 850mb omegas but very limited lift within the actual DGZ. QPF from high res CAMs is indicating 0.10"-0.20" along the lakeshore and 0.05"-0.10" inland. With SLRs of 15:1 to 17:1, this should yield light accums of 1"-3" near and west of US 131 (locally over 3" across Mason and Oceana Counties) and generally 1" or less east of there.

The second system moves in New Year's Eve from late morning into late night. This system is stronger at 500 mb and hence there is better synoptic lift moving over the lake, but also there is better lift within the DGZ. Model QPF looks similar though the highest amounts are favored near and south of a MKG-GRR-BTL line. Generally another 1"-3" is forecast in this region with some spots locally higher mainly across Allegan and Van Buren Counties.

By New Year's Day, colder temperatures move in with highs ranging from the upper teens to low 20s. Some light snow showers or flurries are possible.

- Turning Quieter for the Weekend

Not much in the way of precipitation is currently forecast for the weekend as upper heights build and temperatures rise a bit into the upper 20s to low 30s. ENS/GEFS/CMC guidance is all indicating some 500mb troughing trying to develop by the end of the weekend into early next week, but whether this will be deep enough and cold enough to support lake effect snow is unclear at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 622 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Lake effect snow continues across the terminals. As the wind gradually decreases this evening, visibilities will improve. Ingredients will remain in place to produce lake effect snow showers through the period, although, warming boundary layer temperatures and falling inversion heights will result in the lower visibilities retreating closer to MKG/AZO and perhaps GRR.

Another clipper will move over the region Tuesday and is reflected in the TAFs via IFR vsbys in -shsn Tuesday afternoon.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST tonight for MIZ037>040- 043-044-050-056-064-071-072. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MIZ045- 051-057-058-065-066-073. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.