textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance of showers/storms this afternoon/evening, better chance Friday

- Chance of storms Monday

- Cooler next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Slight chance of showers/storms this afternoon/evening, better chance Friday

There's been a surge of moisture today across the cwa behind a warm front and surface dewpoints are near 60 in many locations. Additionally, a weak short wave is riding over the upper ridge across the state. As such, some of the CAMs are pointing toward some isolated convection developing later this afternoon after 3-4 pm, mainly southeast of Grand Rapids. SBCAPE is progd to increase to 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon. Any storms that develop, however, are expected to be sub-severe as bulk shear is progd to remain below 20 knots which will limit storm organization.

The next chance of storms will arrive Friday when a cold front moves through the region. RRFS-EMC progs point toward decaying showers/storms moving across the cwa Friday morning with a potential refiring Friday afternoon. The clouds and lingering precipitation Friday morning may keep a lid on instability through much of the cwa Friday. CAMs show this with storms redeveloping east of Lansing Friday afternoon where morning convection didn't have as much of an influence on atmospheric instability. Nevertheless, CAMs also show some redevelopment along the cold front after 20z east of US-131, so there's likely to be some recovery after the morning precipitation with a likelihood of strong storms southeast of the cwa.

- Chance of storms Monday

After a weekend featuring partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the mid 60s and dewpoints in the 40s, the next system will arrive Monday night and Tuesday. The next cold front will move in Monday night. SBCAPE is progd near 500 j/kg early Tuesday morning. Thus storms are possible, but the late night arrival will diminish chances for severe storms.

- Cooler next week

Once the cold front moves through Tuesday, h8 temperatures will fall from 12c Tuesday to 0c Wednesday morning. That will set the stage for cooler weather mid to late week. We'll see highs in the mid 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Surface high pressure will build in from the northwest, but zonal flow aloft will likely supply some high clouds.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A cold front will press in from the west this morning and move through Southwest Lower Michigan this afternoon and early evening. Rain showers are expected this morning spreading in between 11Z and 14Z. These showers should be light with conditions mainly staying VFR. MKG and GRR have a chance at seeing some MVFR ceilings move in for a time. This afternoon a chance for both showers and thunderstorms exist with conditions mainly staying VFR. Timing on the potential for storms will be roughly from 18Z to 23Z for GRR and AZO to the east. Tonight ceilings will try to lower into the MVFR category starting at LAN and JXN and working westward. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 knots early this morning increasing to 10-20 knots during the midday hours.

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

High pressure overhead is keeping wind and waves below advisory criteria. South winds will increase Friday ahead of the next cold front and waves will build to 2 to 4 feet north of Grand Haven. It's not out of the question that a small craft advisory may be needed Friday, but confidence is't high enough to issue yet.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.