textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow This Afternoon/Tonight; Light Lake Effect Wednesday

- Mainly Dry Thursday into Friday, Possible Weekend Snow Showers

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Snow This Afternoon/Tonight; Light Lake Effect Wednesday

A quick hitting clipper system arrives this afternoon with a quick burst of snow impacting areas mainly near and north of I-96. This will most likely occur in the 4pm-9pm window. Both the Nam12 and RAP13 are showing significant lift within the DGZ ahead of the trailing cold front associated with a surface low north of our region. Bufkit soundings do show some subsaturated air below the DGZ so some loss of snow intensity should occur as the bands move through, but nevertheless this will be a decent burst of snow over a compressed time period allowing for some travel inconveniences to potentially develop mainly across central Lower MI. Snowfall amounts of around 0.5" near I-96 and 1"-3" across central Lower MI are still anticipated. Slick travel may develop by the evening commute or shortly thereafter especially near and north of a MKG to RQB to MOP line.

High res guidance such as the Nam3km and HRRR support lake effect snow showers to develop in the 06z-18z Wednesday window in the midst of mean 1000-850mb WNW flow. For example, Nam3km Bufkit soundings at RQB show low inversion heights (~5k ft) but total saturation of the DGZ with some lift present. Light accumulations are possible with perhaps another 0.5"-1.0" in WNW flow locations. Current POPs even with high res guidance are probably not high enough, so 30-40% coverage may need to be increased with subsequent updates. Dry conditions are favored by the afternoon hours.

- Mainly Dry Thursday into Friday, Possible Weekend Snow Showers

There is not enough model consensus to support much in the way of a precipitation risk Thursday with weak upper troughing swinging through. Some flurries or light snow showers are possible but that may be about it. Abrupt 850mb warm air advection gets underway as we transition from Thursday to Friday ahead of a cold front. 850mb temps warm from around -10C Thursday to +4C Friday. This will support highs in the upper 40s to potentially low 50s Friday.

Temperature uncertainty exists Saturday as there are varied model solutions regarding passage of a cold front. Daytime highs could touch the 40s but it's also plausible that colder readings in the mid 20s to low 30s may occur if the frontal passage happens earlier in the day. There is a risk for some snow showers over the weekend but timing and intensity are in question. Current ECE probabilities for 1" or more of snow in the 24hr period ending 18z Sunday are about 40%. So, some support is there but not a majority of the members yet.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 651 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Snow showers will most likely impact MKG/GRR/LAN this evening with a brief window for IFR due to visibility reduction. Some guidance supports snow showers impacting AZO/BTL/JXN this evening but some does not, so went PROB30 for the threat there. Otherwise, expect S/SW winds to increase today with some gusts to 25 kts or greater possible. Starting in the 06z-09z Wed window, lake effect snow showers may develop and could move toward MKG and GRR into the 09z-12z time frame. Heavy activity is not expected at this time.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.