textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased Fire Weather Concerns

- Next Chance of Rain or Thunderstorms is Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Increased Fire Weather Concerns

Warm temperatures and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 20-30 percent the next several days will increase the concern for wildfires especially in the conifer forests north of Muskegon- Clare. Gusts up to 15-25 mph are occurring Saturday afternoon which are another component contributing to the concern. Winds on Sunday will be a little weaker, followed by breezy winds again on Monday. This dry pattern is expected to persist into Thursday, with low spread in the solution space among the model ensembles.

- Next Chance of Rain or Thunderstorms is Friday

The omega block episode over North America is favored to break down later in the week, allowing upper-level shortwave troughs to approach the Great Lakes from the west amid more quasi-zonal flow. The majority of global ensemble members wash at least a modicum of MUCAPE over Lower Michigan on Friday, marking our next potential for a thunderstorm. The arrival window of any precipitation during that day is still broad, which lends itself to greater uncertainty in the high temperature forecast (between lower 70s and lower 80s).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail thru the TAF period, thanks to deep ridging and broad subsidence. Only some thin/patchy CI expected. East winds this afternoon will gust to around 20 kts, before a slackening pressure gradient and the setting sun causes winds to quickly diminish this evening. Winds will remain light on Sunday /much lighter than today/ from generally a SE direction. This set up will permit a W/NW onshore lake breeze to develop at MKG by early afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

East winds gusting over 22 knots Saturday morning have generally diminished to 10 to 20 knots. Winds will become more northerly by the Sable Points later this afternoon, building waves 1 to 3 feet. Weaker winds are expected Sunday with direction dictated by the daily lake breeze cycle. North winds Monday strengthening 15 to 20 knots should build up some chop especially around the Sable Points, though for now expected to stay below the 3 to 5 foot range.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.