textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry through Tuesday night

- Rain Wednesday into Thursday

- Showers and Thunderstorms Friday into Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Mainly dry through Tuesday night

Ridging at the surface lingers from tonight into Tuesday night keeping the area mainly dry. We do have a surge in low level moisture that arrives late tonight and on Tuesday, but we look to stay largely dry in the GRR forecast area (from I-94 northward). Can't rule out a few showers down towards I-94 tomorrow but are only carry a 20 pct chance for rain. Moisture is shallow and lift is weak. A seasonably cool night with lows in the 20s followed by a warmer day tomorrow with highs in the lower to middle 40s.

- Rain Wednesday into Thursday

Overall we are looking at a pattern change in this 7 day forecast and it shows up in earnest from Wednesday into Thursday. Highs will reach the 50s both days in most areas when normal highs are around 40. Precipitation will be driven by a mid level shortwave working east in a zonal flow which will be in the process of becoming a deep southwest flow. Down at the surface a low will make an approach to the area on Thursday moving along the Michigan/Indiana line. Precipitation totals in this time frame may reach a half inch across Southern Lower Michigan.

- Showers and Thunderstorms Friday into Saturday

The warmth surges in further during the Friday and Saturday time frame ahead of a cold front. 850mb temperatures rise to around +13C which will push high temperatures into the 60s. Highs will be 20 to 25 degrees F above normal and will be in the neighborhood of record highs for this time of year. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday into Saturday given a surge of moisture which will push PWATs to around 1.3 inches and surface dew points to near 60F. MUCAPE values will reach at least 500-1000 j/kg so thunderstorms are expected. Additional rainfall will likely push to around an inch in spots.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 538 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions expected through early Tuesday morning, with the cloud deck thickening and lowering overnight as moisture streams in from the south. Cigs lower to MVFR mid Tuesday morning for the I-94 terminals and early Tuesday afternoon for the I-96 terminals. By mid afternoon, fuel-alternate MVFR cigs are likely with a 10% chance of IFR cigs. Once they arrive, MVFR cigs will persist through the TAF period. Predominantly southeast winds tonight will change to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon aob 10 knots.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.