textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms possible tonight

- Freezing rain north tonight

- Wind/snow Friday

- Colder next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Severe storms possible tonight

The atmosphere is setting up for a possible severe weather event tonight. We've been watching the slow southward movement of a cold front that currently stretches from near Grand Haven to Middleville to just south of Mason. Visible satellite imagery shows this well. The current temperature is 46 at Lansing and 68 at Jackson. Short range models show this frontal boundary sagging south to the I-94 row of counties by late this afternoon.

In the warm sector, conditons are ripe for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms. Between 00z-03z, 0-1km bulk shear increases to 60kts along I-94 and 40 kts over the northern cwa as a LLJ intersects the frontal boundary and low pressure rides northeastward along the boundary from northern Missouri. HRRR SBCAPE maxes around 2200 j/kg around 00z over the I-94 corridor but falls to near 0 j/kg north of the frontal boundary. 0-1km SRH is near 300 m2/s2 indicating updraft rotation and supercell development likely. Tornadoes are possible near the frontal boundary this evening. Given STP values over 2 as seen on the latest HRRR and WoFs, a stronger tornado potential has to be considered as well.

The severe wx potential isn't limited to the southern cwa. North of the frontal boundary, elevated instability and shear is also impressive too. Additionally, RRFS-EMC shows updraft helicity swaths across the central cwa this evening; large hail is the main threat north of the frontal boundary.

CAMs indicate the core of the storms moving east by 08z with an area additional weaker development 10-12z. However, as we've seen many times, severe storms often work the atmosphere over which limits subsequent development, and that may be the case late tonight.

- Freezing rain north tonight

Surface temperatures around 30 tonight near the US-10 corridor will set the stage for some freezing rain development. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Lake, Osceola, and Clare counties tonight. Ice accumulations of a tenth or two are expected.

- Wind/snow Friday

A strengthening clipper will move southeast across Lower MI. This clipper will bring a mix of rain and snow, and more significantly, wind. ECMWF ensembles show winds gusting to 55-60 mph Friday as the clipper strengthens to the north. A wind advisory and/or high wind warning may be needed.

- Colder next week

Another strong low is seen in the models Sunday dropping freezing rain and snow. The GFS continues to show a lot of snow, while the ECMWF ensembles only average around an inch. However, there were a couple of ensemble members that produced around a foot. We'll continue to keep an eye on this system. A return to winter-like temperatures is also expected with highs in the mid to upper 20s next Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Thunderstorms will be moving out this morning but low clouds will remain with areas of IFR continuing into the afternoon. Rain and snow showers in the afternoon could also bring patchy IFR, especially in western Lower Michigan. Winds will go from east to northwest on Wednesday and gust over 20 knots at times.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

More thunderstorms and heavy rain are on track to move through Southern Lower Michigan this evening and overnight. The hydro threat is two-fold over the next few days. First will be the risk for impacts - primarily to travelers - as roads and poor drainage areas likely fill up with standing water during the storms. This is most likely in urban areas, especially those (like Kalamazoo, Jackson, and Lansing) that received heavy rain a few days ago. 1-1.5 inches of rain a few days ago was enough to cause some street flooding, and we are expecting similar amounts tonight.

As this water makes its way into the river systems, it is likely we will see a few spots experience some minor flooding over the coming days. The water is still high from last weekend's rain, so the most vulnerable and likely to cross above flood stage will be some of our typical trouble spots for river flooding, which are mostly along the smaller rivers/tributaries that flow into the Grand River. However, depending on exact rain amounts, the Grand River itself in Comstock Park could eventually see some flooding by late this week as the water makes its way through.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ038>040. Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ050>052-056>059- 064>067-071>074. MARINE...None.