textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow Tonight Through Thursday Morning, Locally Heavy Near The Lakeshore

- Accumulating Snow Likely Friday With Lake Enhanced System

- Lake Effect Snow and Cold Continue Into The Weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Snow Tonight Through Thursday Morning, Locally Heavy Near The Lakeshore

The arrival of an arctic front after 06z tonight will cause a significant change in conditions by Wednesday morning. The setup will be favorable for snow squalls along the front with a brief burst of heavier snow, enhanced winds, and flash freezing of any roads that remain wet. Given the light snow amounts and progressive nature of this portion of the event, there is not enough to warrant headlines for this situation. Particularly with the bulk of the impacts occuring before the morning commute, this situation may be best suited for a Special Weather Statement. The front should clear the area by 6/7 am.

Given the robust cold pool aloft with delta-Ts near 20C, lake effect will ramp up quickly post arctic frontal passage. Inversion heights in the afternoon Wednesday climb north of 10kft given the favorable instability, and BUFKIT progs show a very favorable environment with solid lift in the DGZ. Given the north-northwesterly flow regime the greatest impacts will be in the Mason, Oceana, northern Muskegon, western Allegan, and western Van Buren counties. The eastern shift noted yesterday in guidance continues with a strong signal among hi-res guidance for one or several heavier bands to develop across Southwest Michigan. Advisory level snow of 3-7 inches is likely, and if a band can become stationary, localized higher amounts will become likely. Will issue an advisory for these counties for now, but a warning may be needed in later updates if confidence increases in a stationary band developing and where it would develop. Gusty will may further cause travel impacts across this area with periods of blowing snow/reduced visibility. The rest of West Michigan is likely to see 1-3 inches of snow. The arrival of shortwave ridging Wednesday Night will lead to lake effect slowly winding down into Thursday morning. We'll then see a short break for the day Thursday.

- Accumulating Snow Likely Friday With Lake Enhanced System

The break Thursday is short lived with the arrival of a potent shortwave and associated low pressure system Thursday Night into early Friday morning. Southwest flow with favorable over-lake instability will result in lake enhanced snow across West Michigan starting early Friday morning and continuing through the day. Snow is likely areawide with LREF ensemble mean QPF from 0.1" near US127 to 0.3" west of US131. Several inches of accumulating snow are possible, especially near and west of US131. Amounts will need to be fine-tuned over the next several days.

- Lake Effect Snow and Cold Continue Into The Weekend

The trough that will center over the eastern CONUS persists over the area into mid next week. Very cold air aloft associated with this will support continued lake effect potential. This pattern fits the classic "Hudson Bay Low" setup with several reinforcing shortwaves providing bursts of heavier lake effect through the weekend and into early next week. These frequent shortwaves and associated clippers will re-orient low-level winds making it difficult to pin down amounts at this range. The greatest potential for travel impacts will be near and west of US131 where the greatest lake enhancement will be. Accumulation over several days will quickly add up through early next week, in addition to persistent cold. Highs early next week may not make it out of the teens.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Rain is expanding south along with MVFR ceilings and winds becoming WNW. The front bringing the cold temperatures, gusty northwest winds, and a transition to snow is currently moving through northern Lake Michigan. The front is expected to reach TAF sites between 9-14Z Wednesday morning. Gusts behind the front will be around 25 to 30 knots with some isolated higher gusts possible. Gusts toward 35 knots are expected along the lakeshore. As for snow, most sites will see around an inch of less. MKG has the best chance to see 2 inches or more (75 percent) and 4 inches or more (40 percent) out of the TAF sites. This is due to a lake effect band that sets up mid morning along the lakeshore. Snowfall rates around a half inch per hour are possible and may reach up to an inch per hour. Further inland light snow showers remain possible through the day with the lake effect band lingering along the lakeshore into Thursday. Visibilities with snow showers may drop 1-2SM, but the risk for LIFR visibilities remains low along with IFR, LIFR ceilings. Ceilings will likely bottom out between 1000 and 1500 feet.

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this afternoon with wind gusts of 25-30 knots being seen at many of our lakeshore observation platforms. A Gale Warning goes into effect late tonight with wind gusts to 40 knots likely across the nearshore waters along with moderate freezing spray. Winds subside below gales early Thursday morning with conditions hazardous to small craft likely continuing into the weekend.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ037-043-050-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.