textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe Weather Still Possible near I-94

- Rain chances Friday night Saturday

- Cold Shot with Snow Early Next Week

UPDATE

Issued at 915 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

KGRR/rgnl radar trends as of 0115Z show strong convection over our far east to se fcst area. This convection will continue to race to the ene and we expect that the threat for any severe wx across that area will come to an end by around 02Z late this evening. Scattered rain showers and perhaps an isolated storm will linger overnight. Our going forecast for the rest of this evening looks good and we will just make some minor modifications mainly to account for timing of the convection out of our area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Severe Weather Still Possible near I-94

Lack of instability has precluded any severe weather so far this afternoon and the gravity wave wind threat has also been underwhelming so far with a few mesonet sites seeing wind direction changes and gusts 30 knots or less across southern Lower Michigan.

There is still the chance of a few severe wind gusts and possible low level mesocyclones with a tornado threat closer to the sfc warm front across southern Lower Michigan, persisting longest across the southeast zones this evening. Trends will continue to be monitored, but at this point the severe threat seems low.

- Rain chances over the weekend

A low across the Southern Plains moves northeast ahead of a deepening longwave upper trough by Friday with the northern edge of the precip shield reaching the southeast half of the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. Colder air filters in across the north with a mix of snow possible if the precip lingers into Saturday night and Sunday.

- Cold Shot with Snow Early Next Week

Upper troughing deepens into early next week with a clipper low tracking across the Great Lakes. The air mass appears cold enough to allow a coating of Spring snow by Sunday night through Monday with accums possible for most if not all of Lower Michigan.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 135 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Any area of LIFR ceilings and visibilities is present around MOP to RQB and northward. Visibilities and ceilings should improve in this region around 8Z. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected with pockets of MVFR lingering into Thursday morning. There is a signal for MKG to see MVFR ceilings around 2500 feet Thursday morning and afternoon. Therefore added it into the TAFs, although the duration could be shorter.

Gusty southwest winds will continue, especially Thursday morning where inland areas are expected to gust around 30 to 35 knots. There is a brief window where JXN and LAN could gust to 40 knots between 14-16Z. Lighter winds move in Thursday night as high pressure builds into the area.

MARINE

Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

No changes to the Gale Warning, which expires at 11 pm. A SCA has been issued to begin at 11 pm and run through Thursday afternoon. Winds will go onshore tonight so waves will build closer to shore.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

In general, 1 to 2 inches of rain has fallen so far today across the Grand and Kalamazoo basins, with another 0.5 to 1.0 likely before the rain and storms move out later this evening. A few localized totals over 3 inches are possible. We've seen some minor general flooding in the far southwest counties including Kalamazoo. These areal flooding risks will diminish quickly once the rounds of storms move out.

While the Muskegon River basin did get less rain, water levels were already starting out higher there due to previous storms, so some minor flooding is expected over the coming days in Newaygo and also in Bridgeton. Across the Grand River, it looks like most places will probably see significant rises but avoid flooding. Exceptions to this will probably be some of the flooding "trouble spots" including Comstock Park, around Lansing on the Red Cedar River as well as Sycamore Creek, and potentially down along the Portage River near Vicksburg.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ844>849.