textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet Weather early this week then Storminess

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Quiet Weather early this week then Storminess

Quiet weather pattern continues today as a clipper low tracks north of Lower Michigan, with little if any precipitation. We will have to watch model and radar trends to see if any light precip will reach the far northern forecast as suggested by some model guidance. Milder temperatures continue as the polar jet remains to the north until later this week.

An area of warm advection and isentropic ascent will bring rain Tuesday night and Wednesday with the highest chances across the northern forecast area. Thermal profiles of model forecast soundings show slight potential for freezing rain across the northern forecast area, but any impacts could be limited to a small area of higher elevations in Osceola and Clare Counties for late Tuesday night.

A second wave of low pressure late on Thursday and Friday could bring rain/mixed precipitation which should change to snow showers the weekend as cold air filters in on the back side of the low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Warm air advection from the south with low clouds have allowed for MVFR vsbys and at times IFR cigs at AZO. While the IFR restrictions should be short lived, the MVFR vsbys could linger for much of the afternoon. Models are increasingly pessimistic overnight as far as the fog development. Expect periods of IFR and lower Fog/Mist between 06Z to 15Z tonight into tomorrow. It is possible for fog to drop below a mile at times and while less likely, below a 1/2SM in some locations, especially the southern TAF sites. Conditions will improve after 15Z Tuesday morning.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.