textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence dry forecast through next Tuesday

- Rain possible mid next week

- Near normal temperatures through the 7 day forecast

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 - High confidence dry forecast through next Tuesday

Moisture overviews in BUFKIT remain very dry into early next week. Outside of some high clouds today, the overviews in the GFS are void of RH values above 50-60 percent. Confidence in dry weather is also boosted by the fact that all 80 members of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles show dry weather through Tuesday. Not much else to say in this quiet period of weather other than the fact that the pattern is somewhat blocked by the Middle Atlantic/Northeast coastal low that is forming. This pattern block keeps the ridge over the Great Lakes almost anchored. Bottom line...dry weather for the next 5 days.

- Rain possible mid next week

There has been some discrepancy in the models in the medium range and that seems to be clearing up a little bit in the past 24 hours. As yesterday's discussion noted, the GFS had trended towards the ECMWF, and that remains to be the case today. The GFS had a deep low moving through the Great Lakes on Wednesday, but consensus is building somewhat towards more of a surface trough/cold front moving through. Chances for rain begin Tuesday night, but are higher on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The GFS is still hanging on to some semblance of a surface low albeit weaker and further south than last night. The surface low hangs the front up a bit over Southwest Lower Michigan. The ECWMF is more progressive. Bottom line is that we have rain chances mid next week but the details are still a bit murky.

- Near normal temperatures through the 7 day forecast

High temperatures through the period look to range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s which is very close to normals. With no major system moving through there will not be much fluctuation from day to day. Lows through Monday night will be near normal as well, generally in the 40s

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

High confidence in VFR weather conditions through the 24 hour TAF period of 06Z-06Z. High clouds will work through the region today before clearing out tonight. Clouds moving through will have bases between 15,000 to 25,000 feet, so no impact on aviation operations. Winds will be light from the east today at 5-10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

High pressure will remain in control of the area weather through the weekend and into early next week. The high will ensure that we continue in a light wind regime with generally less than 10 knots of wind into next Tuesday. Waves are anticipated to be in the flat calm to 1 foot range through Tuesday. Given what can occur this time of year on the Great Lakes this is certainly a quiescent period.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.