textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing rain threat continues across Central Lower Michigan

- Clipper to bring swath of snow to the area Thur Night/Friday

- Impactful weather expected with system over the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Freezing rain threat continues across Central Lower Michigan

A wave of low pressure situated over Missouri this morning will work northeast along the frontal boundary which stretches northeast into Southern Lower Michigan. We will see occasional rain showers spread across much of the area with wintry precipitation expected across Central Lower Michigan. See the hydro section below for details on additional rainfall. Off to the north however colder air is in place which will result in the potential for freezing rain up along U.S. 10. We are maintaining the Winter Weather Advisory as it stands now for Lake, Osceola and Clare counties. Surface air temperatures will be the coldest in these three counties near or slightly below the freezing mark. Elsewhere, the temperatures will be slightly warmer and we are expecting rain. This afternoon as the low works to the east we should see a rain to snow scenario with little in the way of accumulation as the precipitation winds down behind the departing low.

- Clipper to bring swath of snow to the area Thur Night/Friday

An Alberta clipper will pass through northern portions of the state of Michigan Thursday night into Friday. Mainly rain is expected across southern portions of the forecast area, from I-96 to the south. To the north however across Central Lower Michigan will see see some warm air advection snow on the leading side of the system followed by some wrap around snow as the system departs. Accumulating snow looks likely across Central Lower Michigan, especially on the high ground from Lake County east through Osceola into Clare County. Amounts may be advisory worthy from Baldwin east to Harrison and Clare.

- Impactful weather expected with system over the weekend

Another strong system is forecast to move into and through the area over the weekend. The operational GFS and ECWMF differ on the path which will have ramification in precipitation type and amounts. The GFS has a further south track of the system through portions of Northern Indiana and Ohio while the ECWMF takes the low more on a northeast track right through the CWA. The GFS would keep places like Central Lower mainly snow, while the ECMWF would result into precipitation changing to all rain for a time on Sunday. Obviously lower confidence at this range of the forecast and we will be watching this system carefully. If the GFS verifies a healthy swath of significant snow would fall across Central Lower Michigan.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

IFR and patchy LIFR conditions this afternoon will gradually improve this evening to MVFR and then VFR after 06Z. Another batch of precip is moving through late afternoon into early evening with mixed rain and snow tapering off then ending this evening. Northwest winds will gust over 20 knots this evening with some gusts to 30 knots possible before decreasing to 10 knots or less by Thursday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Much of the area saw 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. There was a swath of much heavier rain though from Grand Haven northeast through Grand Rapids to Stanton and Alma. In this zone 1.00 to 2.00+ inches of rain fell. Flooding was noted in urban areas like Grand Rapids. The short term motorist/travel impact of the event is over and we now shift into the river portion of the event. First though, another wave of precipitation will work through the area today as rain moves northeast out of Missouri and through Lower Michigan today. Additional rainfall of a quarter to a half inch is expected from I-96 to the south with the potential for a half to one inch in the same zone. So, the area that had less rain last night will fill in with more rain today. Fairly widespread 1.00 to 2.00 inch totals will be common by this afternoon. We will maintain the Flood Watch given the anticipated wave of additional rain. We expect to issue some river flood warnings today as new forecasts are generated from the North Central River Forecast Center. These forecasts will account for both rain that has already fallen and additional rain that is expected today. The Grand and Kalamazoo river basins will be most affected.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.