textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing rain unlikely this morning

- Warmer today, chance of snow north tonight and Wednesday

- Lower chances for accumulating snow late this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Freezing rain unlikely this morning

It appears that our window for possible light freezing rain has passed. Radar indicates the warm advection wing of precipitation had just exited east of our far northeast forecast area (Clare County). While we don't have any direct reports there, it's reasonable to assume that no accumulating precipitation occurred based on surface observations in the area reporting cloud bases around 10000 ft AGL and large dewpoint depressions of 10 to 15 degrees F.

- Warmer today, chance of snow north tonight and Wednesday

For much of today, we will be in the warm sector of the low currently located north of Lake Superior. The pre-frontal trough passes through by early afternoon with winds turning to the northwest behind it, but more pronounced cold advection associated with the actual cold front doesn't arrive until tonight. This will allow maximum temperatures to reach or perhaps exceed 40 degrees to the south towards I-94, with upper 30s elsewhere.

Based on recent HREF guidance, have decided to include a slight chance for snow across our northern forecast area tonight into Wednesday. The guidance seems reasonable given that this area will be at the southern extent of aggregate (that is, Lake Superior plus northern Lake MI sourced) lake effect snow. This is not expected to be impactful since snowfall intensity and accumulations should stay on the light side.

- Lowering chances for accumulating snow late this weekend

The odds for an uneventful weekend have increased a bit. Not surprisingly, there remains limited clarity regarding exactly what to expect; however, we do see that multiple cluster solutions now point towards unphased upper flow with a shortwave trough in the southern stream making steady progress eastward across the Mississippi Valley. But, what differs from what guidance showed this time yesterday is that the trough is considerably farther south than before, more towards the southeastern US, and the associated surface low is also farther south and much broader. This setup is far less favorable for accumulating synoptic snow here. It also appears that the window for any possible snow is a little later now, more during the day Sunday instead of Sunday morning. But again, probabilities for accumulating snow are on the low side (maybe 30 to 40 percent) and probabilities for impacts to travel are lower still (more like 10 to 20 percent).

Of course things can change, and this will be the most important thing to watch in the coming days. After the weekend, we are looking at high probabilities for a significant warmup with strong upper ridging. Highs by Tuesday could even make a serious run towards 50 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 639 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Key changes: - added MVFR fuel alternate ceilings today for most terminals - mentioned LLWS again tonight

We are holding on to LLWS for a bit longer. Radar VWP wind returns have been spotty at KGRR, but they are better at KDTX where we see 30 to 35 kt southwest flow at 250m, or just over 800 feet, above radar level. This is probably pretty similar to what is happening at KGRR and lines up well with forecast soundings. LLWS should disappear in the next couple hours with the loss of our nocturnal inversion.

Today, we will see a transition to northwest winds associated with a prefrontal trough. This will be followed by increasing low level clouds with the cold front itself. Guidance has been pretty consistent with advertising ceilings in the 1000-2000 ft AGL range later today, starting with MKG first and than working eastward. Our easternmost sites of LAN and JXN may be able to remain above fuel alternates.

We added a brief window of LLWS early tonight with strong NW winds aloft behind the cold front. This would be a rather unusual setup because post cold frontal situations like these typically involve a well mixed boundary layer thanks to effective downward momentum transfer of winds, resulting in a vertical wind profile that's relatively uniform. Perhaps it's a bit aggressive to bite on this already and it will be interesting to see whether subsequent model guidance indicates the same thing.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.