textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers today, then cooler with Lake Effect rain/snow

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Rain showers today, then cooler with Lake Effect rain/snow

Rain showers advancing eastward from Minnesota into Wisconsin this morning are associated with a clipper low/digging northern stream shortwave trough. Expect the rain to move into northwest forecast area this morning then spread to the southeast in the afternoon.

The trough merges with a retrograding upper low over eastern Canada., leading to an amplified pattern across the CONUS through the weekend, with strong northerly flow bringing lake effect rain and snow showers and cool temperatures for Thursday through Saturday. The immediate lakeshore should remain rain due to modification by the relatively warm lake surface temperatures. Inland will see some snow and perhaps light accumulations on unpaved surfaces. Travel impacts are not expected since the heavier lake effect bands are expected to remain offshore.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Low level clouds and fog have finally dissipated and we are now seeing a west-east band of light rain roughly along a Whitehall to White Cloud line. Cloud bases around there are in the 4000-5000 foot AGL range and surface observations indicate weak convergence along this axis. The band has been tightening somewhat, suggesting that some lower tropospheric deformation/fgen forcing is coupled with the surface convergence. Even with all of this favorable forcing for ascent, only light rain is being reported thus far; this is not surprising given the very dry sub-cloud layer observed in the local 12Z raobs.

This precipitation feature will be the thing to watch between now and 00Z because some guidance such as the HRRR keeps the band organized and drifting south towards the MKG and GRR terminals later today. Even if this occurs, there is a good chance that VFR conditions will hold at those locations. The worst expected scenario at this point would be ceilings approaching 3000 ft AGL.

MVFR ceilings do look more likely areawide after 03Z and particularly after 06Z as the atmosphere moistens from the top down. Fuel alternate ceilings are also possible after 06Z, estimated at around 70 percent chance.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ844>849.