textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Benign weather through Tuesday with a dry cold frontal passage tonight

- System brings rain showers Wednesday followed by lake effect rain/snow showers late week

- Conditions dry out this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Benign weather through Tuesday with a dry cold frontal passage tonight

A cold front is expected to cross the area tonight into Tuesday morning across a northwest flow regime. Moisture is lacking in the low-levels based on BUFKIT overviews supporting a dry forecast with cold fropa. Highs well into the 50s and possibly the low 60s in spots are favored.

- System brings rain showers Wednesday followed by lake effect rain/snow showers late week

A clipper system moves south of the area Wednesday with increasing moisture bringing rain showers beginning mid-day. Increasing northerly flow behind this system brings 850mb temps down to near -5C, which brings a 18-20C deltaT with current lake temps. Lake effect showers are expected, with FZLs as low as 2kft based on BUFKIT overviews suggesting rain will mix with snow at times. North to North-Northeast flow keeps the heaviest precipitation offshore, though in the CWA the highest totals look to be near Big and Little Sable points and near South Haven. Enhanced chance for snow to mix in will occur in these areas as well, as better forcing leads to higher rates/better wet-bulbing. There will also be several shortwaves rounding the parent trough in place across the area that would locally enhance precipitation based on placement and timing.

- Conditions dry out this weekend

As of now, conditions are forecast to dry out going into the weekend, especially the late weekend. This will be driven by both surface ridging and mid-level ridging/warm air advection ending moisture flux for lake driven precipitation and subsidence. This will also mark the beginning of a warmup back into the 50s after the notably cooler mid to late week period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR is expected through Tuesday morning with only a few daytime cumulus clouds bubbling up this afternoon around 3,000 feet. Winds will be generally at or below 10 knots, from southwest through this evening, becoming northwest Tuesday morning after a cold front passes through. 30 knots of low level wind shear is possible for a few hours late tonight around 06 Z.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.