textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Threat for Freezing Rain Thursday Morning

- Chance for Severe Weather Thursday Afternoon/Night

- Another Round of Strong Storms Possible on Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Threat for Freezing Rain Thursday Morning

Precipitation moves in from southwest to northeast between 2 AM and daybreak Thursday. Forecast wet bulb temperatures in the relatively higher terrain of interior Central Michigan favor freezing rain at the onset of precipitation, before temperatures warm later in the morning. With perhaps slightly cooler wet bulb temperatures expected than previously, the 12Z HREF FRAM and freezing rain QPF from ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian models have trended a little south, with a higher potential for a quarter inch of ice in the high points of Osceola and Clare counties. Have expanded the winter weather advisory for the counties adjacent to Osceola and Clare to account for these trends.

The window for freezing rain is fairly short but precipitation will be moderate and winds will be breezy. Impacts are more iffy south and west of Osceola/Clare, but bridges and overpasses could be affected briefly during morning travel. If ice accretion is indeed efficient in Osceola and Clare, some power outages could occur.

- Chance for Severe Weather Thursday Afternoon/Night

Temperatures and moisture increase substantially near and south of I-96 mid to late afternoon Thursday with a northward moving warm front. Thunderstorms around mid day are possible but will be well elevated and unlikely to be severe. More surface-based convection is then possible in Southwest Michigan during the evening. This high-shear low-CAPE setup offers some risk of damaging wind gusts, and even a tornado given ample low-level moisture and curved 0-1 and 0-3 km hodographs. Hail threat is low as most of the CAPE will be concentrated in warmer air at lower altitudes.

- Another Round of Strong Storms Possible on Saturday

(Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026) Another low will move through the area on Saturday associated with a stronger upper trough. Wind fields with this system are even stronger aloft with a 60kt low level jet and a 70kt mid level jet. The question is how much instability we will have before the cold front sweeps east during the day. If the timing of the front slows up just a bit it will place a portion of our area in the warm sector at max heating. We will be watching this time frame closely for another round of potential severe weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 211 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

An active period of aviation weather is expected the next 24 hours, with a warm front lifting into the area today and a cold front sweeping through tonight. Ceilings will steadily decline this morning with MVFR conditions moving in at present. IFR and LIFR weather is expected between 10z and 18z especially with the warm front in the area. There will be some improvement this afternoon as we break into the warm sector with MVFR and VFR conditions developing. Tonight as the cold front moves in conditions will trend back to MVFR. A round of showers will move through the area this morning associated with the warm front between 09z and 18z. Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms will sweep in from the west with the cold front between 22z and 04z.

An east wind of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots or so will veer to the southeast this afternoon. Winds will then veer to the south late this afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front. Gusts to around 30 knots can be expected between 18z and 06z.

MARINE

Issued at 318 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Beginning another small craft advisory with east winds strengthening late this evening, gusting at the shore 20-30 knots overnight into Thursday morning. Winds veer more south by Thursday evening, building larger waves in the nearshore, and scattered thunderstorms over Lake Michigan are likely. Gale force wind gusts are possible Thursday evening, especially in and around thunderstorms.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 318 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Two main additional rounds of rain are expected over the next few days. This should add 1-2 inches of rain to most areas, especially over the Muskegon River basin and western/lower Grand River basin. Thankfully, water levels have largely recovered from the last rainy weather pattern a few weeks ago, but this will get water levels rising again. Currently, the most vulnerable locations to potentially reach minor flood levels over the coming days are along the Muskegon River (primarily in Newaygo and Bridgeton), and along the Maple River in Maple Rapids (tributary to the Grand River). However, any shifts north or south of the upcoming heavy rain axis will change these results. Now is the time for people along West Michigan rivers to pay extra attention and have a plan to respond if water levels rise unexpectedly.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ038- 044>046. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT today for MIZ039-040. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849.