textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Light mixed precipitation tonight/Monday

- Warmer, chance of rain late week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Light mixed precipitation tonight/Monday

Latest visible loop shows clearing skies over Wisconsin moving east across the lake. We should see clearing at the lake shore by late afternoon and that clearing will move east across the cwa by late evening. It won't last long, however. Another short wave see in water vapor imagery over northern Minnesota will move southeast across the cwa after midnight. We're likely to see light rain, possibly mixed with snow over the northern half of the cwa. Precipitation will only be a few hundredths, which should do little to exacerbate the ongoing flooding.

Another short wave Monday will follow, dragging a shot of cold air with it. H8 temps are progd to fall to -15c by Tuesday morning. That should be enough to generate some lake effect snow showers over the region. However, boundary layer winds from the north are not favorable for snow showers inland. It will be cold Tuesday; highs from the upper 30s north to lower 40s south are expected.

- Warmer, chance of rain late week

The cold air doesn't last long, though, this time of year. By Wednesday, we'll see highs in the upper 50s as high pressure moves east and south winds on the back side of the high increase over the region. The south winds will also draw moisture northward where it will begin to interact with a cold front moving east across the Plains. This cold front will be the focus of showers Thursday through Saturday as it stalls over southern Lower. We'll see a couple of waves of low pressure ride northeast along the frontal boundary. It's possible that much of the thunderstorm activity with stay south of the cwa, if the boundary sets up south of I-94. However, when these frontal boundaries become quasi stationary, they sometimes wiggle back and forth and that might be enough to get the far southern cwa into the warm sector. We'll have to wait to see how this evolves before we can determine if there's a severe wx threat or whether additional rainfall will slow the rate of river falls.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 725 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Ceilings have scattered out as of present, however cigs will lower this evening as a clipper system arrives. Cigs will fall to VFR then fuel alternate MVFR tonight as showers move across the terminals, with a 30-40% chance of IFR ceilings. Ceilings slowly improve to VFR by Monday afternoon with rain showers potentially mixing with snow. Winds will gust from the northwest to around 25 knots Monday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Small craft conditions are ongoing but will begin to diminish later this afternoon as high pressure noses into the region. The small craft advisory remains in effect until 8 pm.

Wind and waves will increase again Monday into Tuesday and another small craft advisory may be needed.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Over a dozen river flood warnings are in effect for the next few days as the crests on area rivers works downstream. Although light rain is a possibility during the next couple of days, rain totals will be less than a tenth of an inch and won't significantly impact the ongoing flooding. More rain later in the week may be a bit heavier than what's expected early this week, but will be significantly less than the last few days.

Remember, never drive on a road that's flooded, because the pavement may be washed out beneath the flood waters.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.