textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Potential Tonight

- Cool with Occasional Showers Next Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- Frost Potential Tonight

We have issued a Frost Advisory for tonight for roughly the eastern half of the forecast area with a Freeze Warning for Osceola and Clare Counties. Cool and very dry air mass in place with a 16 degree dew point currently at Cadillac. So even though clouds and winds are increasing after midnight in a warm advection pattern, temps could still plummet to near or below freezing by midnight. The threat will diminish late tonight as clouds arrive and winds increase.

- Cool with Occasional Showers Next Week

Upper troughing will prevail through next week across the Great Lakes region, bringing mostly cooler than normal temperatures and occasional showers as shortwave troughs pass through in fast northwest flow. A weak clipper arrives Sunday, with the sfc low center tracking across northern Lower Michigan. QPF is negligible as moisture is limited.

Thunder along with gusty winds are possible on Monday afternoon and evening as low pressure deepens near James Bay and a trailing cold front moves through. The front stalls across the Ohio Valley with a surface low tracking northeast along the front. At this point it looks like the precip shield stays east of Lower Michigan.

Even so, showers are possible on Thursday as steep lapse rates would support diurnally-enhanced updrafts and it is cold enough at mid and low levels for them to produce graupel. Frost/freeze conditions could persist into next weekend as cold northwest flow regime continues.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 703 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Skies are beginning to clear as sunset approaches. However, another area of cloudiness is approaching from the northwest along with a cold front. The pressure gradient will tighten tonight as the frontal boundary gets closer and some LLWS is possible. Clouds will overspread the terminals Sunday morning, but VFR cigs are expected.

MARINE

Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

A SCA is in effect for Sunday as southwest winds gust to 30 knots during the day. After a brief lull Sunday night, winds will increase again and another SCA will be needed for Monday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ038-045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ039-040. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday night for LMZ844>849.