textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing Rain Tonight and Friday

- Lake Effect Snow early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

- Freezing Rain Tonight and Friday

No significant changes to the forecast this afternoon. Model soundings still show freezing rain and combined with expected QPF, will result in about a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation just north of I-96 from Muskegon County to Ingham County by late morning on Friday.

This is a transient event as the sfc high and low are in a progressive flow regime and this will limit icing amounts, especially across the southwest forecast area where temperatures and dew points rise above freezing around 8 AM Friday. Further northeast, advection of cold and dry air continues at the surface longer and pockets of freezing rain persist into the afternoon.

The precip ends by evening with weak sfc ridging building in for Saturday. Winds are expected to be below 10 mph Friday night so it will not be a factor for increasing the chance of power outages by combining with any ice remaining on tree limbs.

- Lake Effect Snow early next week

Sfc low moving across Lower Michigan with rain on Sunday will draw in cold air on the back side with a period of lake effect snow late Sunday night through Monday. Model soundings show inversion heights starting out near 10 kft, so measurable snow and impacts to travel appear likely on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

This forecast period will see the core of the high impacts expected arrive late in the period at just about all of the terminals.

Much of the first 12-16 hours will see little to no impacts with VFR expected to dominate. There is some stratocumulus cloud cover over KLAN as of 17z based around 1500 ft. Satellite trends show this mixing out as it is quite shallow, and ridging is building in.

More extensive cloud cover around 5k ft will start moving in toward and after midnight EST/05z. Then, we expect precipitation to start to develop around 10z or so at the western terminals, and shortly after that for the eastern sites. Precipitation is expected to begin as fzra at all sites, and MVFR will arrive at the same time. Temps will slowly rise then through the morning, changing fzra over to rain from SW to NE through the end of the forecast period. LIFR conditions are expected to move in at all sites also.

Lightest amounts of ice can be expected at KAZO where a brief glaze is likely, and up to a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation is likely toward KLAN and KJXN.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-065>067-073-074. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EST Friday for MIZ064- 071-072. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for LMZ844>849.