textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost and Freeze Conditions Expected north of I-96 Tonight

- Another chance for widespread Frost/Freeze Thursday Morning

- Cooler Temps with light rain trending into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

- Frost and Freeze Conditions Expected north of I-96 Tonight

The dry gusty northwesterly flow will continue through the day. That will drop dewpoints into the 20s to 30s through much of northern lower Michigan, including our northern two tier of counties, mainly regions along and north of M 20. As temperatures drop this evening the winds will slacken and given the dry dewpoints and clearing sky, the temperatures will drop overnight into Wednesday morning. Given those conditions widespread frost is likely through northern Montcalm county northward. Lake, Osceola and Clare will see the steepest drop in temperatures and thus have issued a freeze warning for those regions. Conditions will improve fairly quickly after sunrise Wednesday morning.

- Another chance for widespread Frost/Freeze Thursday Morning

The cold northwesterly flow will continue through tomorrow. A fairly dry upper level trough will slowly move through the upper Great Lakes as the moisture boundary remains entrenched through the Upper Tennessee River valley. The big concern will be the further concern for frost and freeze. 850mb lows tomorrow evening into Thursday will drop to -3C. There will be some increasing mid level moisture which could hinder temps from dropping. However, given the diurnal surface inversion, dry air at the surface and near calm winds, near freezing temperatures could be widespread. Will see how these develop but may need headlines tomorrow night as well.

- Cooler Temps with rain trending into this weekend.

Temperatures will continue to trend below normal through the rest of the week, though they will mildly increase through the latter half of the week and into the weekend. A large upper level trough over Central Canada will dominant the weather pattern through the end of the weekend into the weekend. That low will cycle through upper and mid level waves through the region bringing late day chances for precipitation through Saturday. Best chance for heavier precipitation will be Saturday evening depending on how the boundary sits. Currently it could extend across southern lower Michigan with heaviest precip possible at this time through southern Michigan.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR is likely through Wednesday. Ceilings tonight will be above 10,000 feet with winds becoming light between NW and NE. Winds around 10 knots gusting 16 to 20 knots from the W-NW is expected with lower atmospheric mixing during daytime heating after 15 Z. Daytime cumulus bases around 6,000 feet may develop underneath higher altitude clouds.

MARINE

Issued at 216 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Overall today into Wednesday, winds 5 to 15 knots and waves 1 to 2 feet. There will be some wind direction variability, generally west becoming south later this afternoon, then veering north or northeast late tonight, then northwest Wed late morning through afternoon. Waves will be a little higher on Friday with 1 to 3 footers, possibly 2 to 4. Small craft advisory conditions appear unlikely through the coming weekend.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ037- 043>046-051. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ038>040. MARINE...None.