textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers to sweep through Tonight/Monday Morning

- Another chance for showers Tuesday night/Wednesday

- Turning colder and unsettled Friday into next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

- Rain showers to sweep through Tonight/Monday Morning

High pressure is sliding away from the area at the surface this afternoon with a cold front poised upstream across the Dakotas. The front will race our direction tonight and spread rain showers into the area overnight and into Monday morning. The upper system driving the cold front is a shortwave trough surging southeast from the ONT/ND/MN border region. The system is somewhat moisture starved and only a couple of observation sites are reporting rain despite returns on radar at 3pm. Best chances for rain will come across Central Lower Michigan and specifically areas north of I-96 late tonight. Followed the SREF for rain chances as it usually does a really good job with pops. The south has a very limited time to see precipitation with this event as the moisture is less down that way and sticks around for less time (4am to 10am). Probability of a tenth of an inch of rain is about 50-60 pct up along the U.S. 10 corridor, so this will be a light rain even in the areas that stand the best chance of rain.

It will be windy at times tonight and on Monday with wind gusts of 30-40 mph becoming common on land. We should stay below wind advisory criteria.

- Another chance for showers Tuesday night/Wednesday

A clipper type system moves our direction from the Plains states Tuesday night into Wednesday. A warm front will swing into the area from the south Tuesday night followed by the low moving through on Wednesday. The upper shortwave is weaker than the system from tomorrow morning and as such even less precipitation is forecast. Less than a tenth of an inch should fall in any area. In fact, the WPC day 3 QPF would suggest trace amounts and we cannot argue with that forecast given not much in the way of mid level moisture with the system.

- Turning colder and unsettled Friday into next weekend

Late in the week and into next weekend the forecast turns more unsettled as the models all show a slowly deepening upper trough. By the weekend the trough is full latitude over the eastern half of the country. The precipitation looks showery and trending towards lake effect as 850mb temperatures drop to around -8C on Sunday. Given a lake water temperature of +13C right now that would put delta T's around 20C, resulting in more than adequate instability. We do have a bit of light snow mixing in, in our gridded forecast on Sunday across interior Central Lower Michigan. It is November...so it is the trend as days become shorter and inevitably colder.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 616 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

LLWS continues to be mentioned in the TAFs for AZO, BTL, and JXN, with an introduction now for LAN as well. This threat begins around 06z ahead of a frontal boundary forecast to move through the region Monday morning. LLWS of around 40 kts at 2000 ft is forecast. Expecting the arrival of some light showers after 06z for MKG first and then GRR. Ceilings look to lower a bit further than the previous forecast with the latest model guidance favoring 2500-3500 ft for MKG, GRR, and LAN. Showers end Monday morning likely around or shortly after 12z. Gusty winds are expected by early Monday morning and lasting through the afternoon with most sites reaching 25-30 kts, with MKG likely getting close to 35 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

After coordination with the Milwaukee office (open water forecast office) have agreed to bring the Gale Warning all the way south to St. Joseph. The Gale Warning now encompasses all of our nearshore marine zones. South of Holland, the Gale is a bit marginal, but do think we will see Gale conditions. Also, in the GRR marine areas we have ran through Gale Warning from this evening all the way to Monday evening. There is a bit of a lull in the Gale conditions on Monday, but it is short lived and therefore would rather bridge that gap to the northwest Gales that develop Monday afternoon and evening. We have around a 24 hour Gale Warning now to cover both the southwest Gales tonight and the northwest Gales Monday afternoon and evening. Waves look to peak in the 6-10 foot range with the latest WaveWatch3 indicating a peak around 11 feet in spots north of Holland at times.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.