textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased Fire Weather Concerns

- Next Chance of Rain or Thunderstorms is Friday-Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Increased Fire Weather Concerns

Dry conditions continue with high pressure and flow off the Canadian shield region providing low dew points, highs a little above normal, and lows a little below normal. Dry fuels, particularly in some conifers, and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 20-30 percent the will keep fire weather concerns elevated through Thursday. Winds have been relatively light this Sunday which has tempered the threat, but breezier winds with gusts over 20 mph are favored on Monday.

- Next Chance of Rain or Thunderstorms is Friday-Saturday

The breakdown of the omega block pattern later this week will usher in weak shortwave disturbances amid more westerly upper- level flow. A majority of global model ensemble members rebuild at least some amount of instability Friday/Saturday as low level moisture increases and mid level lapse rates become at least marginally more supportive. Ensembles are still spread pretty far on possibilities for when it might rain, between early Friday and Saturday, making for relatively lower confidence in the forecast details at the start of the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

High pressure will remain firmly in control, and will continue to yield VFR conditions through the TAF period, with only patches/areas of high clouds to contend with over western areas. Light and variable winds today and tonight will give way to east winds 5-10 kt early Monday.

The only exception is at MKG, where westerly onshore lake breezes /near 10 kt/ will prevail through the rest of this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

High resolution models indicate nearshore winds from the north will strengthen to about 10-15 knots late Sunday afternoon between Muskegon and South Haven, which may build 1-2 foot waves. On Monday, high pressure advancing toward Michigan from the north will provide a flow of northeast winds, though the winds may get tugged more northerly during the afternoon with the added influence of the daytime lake breeze pressure system. The HRRR is most aggressive with developing 15-20 knot north winds down the shoreline Monday afternoon, with other models showing a similar pattern but with slightly weaker wind speeds. This may build 1-3 or 2-4 ft waves. Winds could be hazardous for small craft around 5 to 8 PM Monday near Big and Little Sable Points.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.