textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered Showers Saturday Afternoon

- Dry And Warming Up Sunday into Monday

- Showers And A Chance Of Thunderstorms Tuesday

- Cold With Chances For Snow Mid to Late Next Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Scattered Showers Saturday Afternoon

Surface observations at present show a robust cold front (temperature difference across the front of 20F) that recently passed through the Chicago metro area. Scattered showers are likely along the front as it crosses lower Michigan. However, thunderstorms are unlikely given a notable lack of instability across the region. Any showers will clear the area by afternoon as the front exits to the east. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely as the front moves through.

- Dry And Warming Up Sunday into Monday

Surface ridging takes over as the dominating driver of our weather pattern into Sunday. Sunday will be a bit cooler than the past few days with highs in the 50s, still notably above normal for this time of year. 850mb temps climb from near 0C tonight to near 10C Monday driving Monday's highs into the 60s. Expect dry conditions with partly to mostly sunny skies.

- Showers And A Chance Of Thunderstorms Tuesday

Our next system of note arrives mid next week ahead of phasing northern and southern stream waves. Some questions remain on the timing and degree of phasing, which will affect the low track and subsequent northward extent of a warm sector across the area. the GFS suite, including deterministic, ensemble, and AI model guidance suggest a track closer to the Michigan/Indiana state line. The ECMWF suite, excluding the AI-ECMWF (which is more in line with the GFS), favors a more northerly track with the low moving across lower Michigan. The main difference this would have is a faster changeover to snow on the backside of the system. There is some potential for thunderstorms as well, highest near I-94.

- Cold With Chances For Snow Mid to Late Next Week

The cold air brought in behind the northern stream wave will cause precipitation to change over to snow, with a weak signal for a period of wintry mix across Central Lower depending on how fast the warm layer aloft cools. As the track of this system is fine-tuned over the coming days, so will specifics on any wintry precipitation. The upper-level troughing will result in a flip to a colder pattern across the area, with 850mb temps going into the negatives. This will bring highs back into the upper 30s/low 40s which is more seasonable for this time of year.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

The main band of rain has moved east and we have a lull in precipitation. A cold front to the west is currently located near Aurora, IL. A few rain showers have developed north of MKG in advance of the front. It's possible a few showers will develop southward but not certain.

Gusty southwest winds will become WNW later this afternoon once the front moves through and decrease to 10-15kts toward evening. Latest visible loop shows clearing skies over Minnesota and that drier air will move over the terminals late tonight.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.