textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry and mild through Tuesday

- Much cooler and unsettled weather beginning Wed and beyond

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Mainly dry and mild through Tuesday

Now that the upper low late last week has moved out of the area, we are back to our dry and mild El Nino fall for a few days. More specifically, the northern branch of the upper jet has lifted north again, and will mostly be a non-issue through Tuesday.

We are just close enough the the upper jet that a fairly strong upper wave embedded in it will try to just clip our northern counties this afternoon, and bring a weak front through all of the area. A sprinkle or light shower can not be ruled out up north, but the moisture over the area is quite dry to start with, with no significant moisture advection expected. We are likely to see some clouds develop along the front with some help from the lake this morning. Additional clouds will stream in behind the wave tonight from the north, and some lake clouds are likely too. This cloud cover will be too shallow to do much more than the clouds.

A ridge moves by on Monday which will eventually clear us out once again. Then we look to see somewhat a repeat of today with a short wave moving by to our north, and a weak and dry cold front moving through on Tuesday. Even with these "cold fronts" moving through, the air is not that much cooler with the deep cold pool staying north of the area, and the flow coming from the Pacific. Highs should be in the 50s and 60s through Tuesday.

- Much cooler and unsettled weather beginning Wed and beyond

We will see a change arrive on Wednesday as the upper air pattern over North America amplifies quite a bit. This is being driven by very strong northern and southern jets over the Eastern Pacific. The most notable feature is nearly a 500 dam 500 mb low over the northern Pacific. The downstream effects will be a strong ridge over the Rockies, allowing strong long wave troughing developing over much of the Eastern U.S..

We will see a southern stream system approach the area on Wednesday from the west, with sufficient moisture advection ahead of it to bring decent rain chances to the area. This low establishes the trough over the area, and then a strong northern stream trough dives south over the area with the establishment of the upper ridge to our west. This phasing of the streams will help to develop a large upper trough over much of the Eastern part of the country. This will allow for a few more instability showers for our area, while the main energy transfers to the East Coast.

Lake effect looks to get going also with the area firmly under the upper cold pool and cyclonic flow from Thursday and beyond. The general consensus is that the flow will be mainly from N to S, favoring areas over the lake and maybe the immediate lakeshore. Delta t's will be in the mid 20s C with 850 mb temps expected to drop to around -6 to -7C. This degree of cold air, if it occurs, would be cold enough for some of the showers to be snow showers away from the warmer lake. Not a lot of rain/snow chances will be present inland, but hit or miss showers will be present for much of next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

The low clouds that many of the models have been keying in on for the last couple of days, are in the process of developing along the lakeshore early this morning. We have dialed in the timing better now that they are developing, and know the level they are at. That is MVFR around 1500-2000 ft. We will see these for a few hours at any one location. They should then move out of the area by mid afternoon. Winds will become gusty by late morning from the W with gusts of 25 to 30 knots likely through sunset.

We will see some additional stratocumulus clouds move in after sunset tonight from the North. These clouds look more likely to be just above the VFR level. They eventually will become some lake effect bands overnight, with MVFR likely at KMKG and KAZO.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.