textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer Temperatures continue into next week

- Next Chance for precipitation next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Warmer Temperatures continue into next week

Cold northwesterly flow will persist through the latter half of the work week. Expect gusty winds to continue today before slackening as the pressure gradient weakens tomorrow. The weak trough will move eastward Friday. A ridge will build into the Great Lakes region into and through the weekend. As that ridge builds over the region, warmer than normal temperatures will advect into Michigan. This will allow temps to increase into next week. Anomalous warm air will bring max temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal over the weekend and 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the first half of next week. Lows will remain below freezing through the weekend but get above freezing next week.

- Next Chance for precipitation next week

Models continue to have the large upper level low moving through the southern US from Sunday into early next week. A shallow clipper will sweep through southern Canada during this timeframe. However southern Michigan will remain solidly between these two features and will be bifurcated. If the clipper shifts a little further south, there is a slight chance for mixed precipitation. However, a downward trend continues that this occurs. So not expecting any precipitation at this time.

Zonal flow will then dominate the pattern early next week with dry warm air continuing into mid next week. The next chance for precipitation will be a system that moves through the upper midwest mid next week. Models diverge on timing though ensembles do show a decent chance for precipitation through that timeframe. The question for that system is the position of the low. Depending where it is situated will determine not only how much precipitation SW michigan gets but what type. So there is some confidence that we will see some precipitation by mid next week, however, what type and how much remains in question.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 619 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Predominantly MVFR cigs for all terminals except KLAN are expected this evening with intermittent breaks to VFR likely through 06z. Ceilings will remain MVFR at AZO/BTL/GRR/MKG overnight with potential VFR near daybreak for LAN/JXN (40% chance of VFR for these sites). Some uncertainty exists in when cigs rise to VFR with some as soon as 09-11z, and other guidance holding MVFR for much of the day. Have leaned on MOS/local probabilistic guidance which has best handled our VFR periods this afternoon/evening but this may be too pessimistic in some cases. All sites should reach VFR by Thursday evening. Wind gusts are subsiding as mixing diminishes this evening with light and variable winds tonight becoming westerly on Thursday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.