textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing rain expected this morning across Central Lower

- Thunderstorms with severe possible today into tonight

- Another round of storms Friday night into Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Freezing rain expected this morning across Central Lower

We have maintained the Winter Weather Advisory as is this morning. The headlines continue through 10am and noon across interior Central Lower Michigan. Even though the surge of warm air advection is strong and temperatures will surge into the 60s today across portions of the area, it is the dry low levels (evaporative cooling) that will take place this morning that is the key component to the forecast. The observations just north of our area tell the story with Manistee at 22F for a dew point at present, Cadillac 23F and Houghton Lake 23F. As the precipitation begins this morning wet bulb affects will drop temperatures allowing freezing rain to persist for 3-6 hours at locations across interior Central Lower Michigan. The highest ground will be the areas that see the most freezing rain and that is across Eastern Lake, Osceola and Clare counties. Most areas in the advisory have the potential to see at least trace amounts of icing to around a tenth of an inch. Our internal procedures are two tenths of an inch being the max if the freezing rain can persist.

- Thunderstorms with severe possible today into tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible both today along a surging warm front and this evening into tonight ahead of a cold front. Instability is the variable that is a bit in question still with the HREF only showing 500-1000 j/kg of MUCAPE at best today. Still feel that is a bit underdone given surface dew points pushing to around 60F ahead of a cold front. Will not be surprised to see MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg. Strong wind fields are certainly in place today with 50-60+ knots noted at 850mb. Feel the clouds and showers of this morning will temper the instability with the warm frontal surge today. We will still need to monitor storms though given we are talking about a warm front and a fairly dynamic system in the spring. Feel our bigger threat will come this afternoon and into the evening as storms roll in along and ahead of the cold front. Given the wind fields and long and fairly straight hodographs feel wind is our biggest threat from both today and tonight. All hazards are in play today, but machine learning systems like nadocast and the day 1 SPC outlook agree that wind is likely our biggest threat. Cannot rule out some QLCS spinups associated with lines and bows that will likely occur later today.

- Another round of storms Friday night into Saturday

The day 3 outlook from SPC has us in General Thunder at this point, but we will be monitoring trends as the cold front is still in our CWA in the early to mid afternoon. This is another dynamic system with strong wind fields in place. Feel another wind threat is possible especially for areas to the south and east of GRR in the afternoon. We will have more time to focus on this system once we get by today's freezing rain and storms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 714 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Poor aviation conditions will exist today as ceilings dip to IFR and LIFR this morning. A warm front lifting north into the area will be responsible both for the lower ceilings but also for rain showers. During the mid afternoon hours we will try to trend towards VFR as we move into the warm sector of the system. We will see a round of showers and a few thunderstorms this morning and then another with a cold front that will sweep through this evening. Winds will veer from southeast to south to southwest over the course of the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Considered upgrading the Small Craft Advisory to a Gale Warning for tonight, but decided to hold off given this is a warm air advection wind. Confidence was not high enough to upgrade. We are expecting SCA conditions today in an off shore flow and the question arises how high the winds get tonight as they veer to south and southwest. Potential for some gale gusts is certainly there, but at this point feel 15-25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots is a better bet over the nearshore waters given the strong inversion that normally occurs this time of year. Lake wide average water temperature is running +2C right now and the overriding air will be in the upper teens C. This is not an effective mixing regime. That said will not be surprised to see gale gusts at the ob sites along the lakeshore as the winds descend off the cold dome of air over the lake. Waves of 4 to 8 feet look likely.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

River levels across the area this morning are either near normal levels or even slightly below normal for this time of year. So, we are starting into a wet period in a fairly good spot. Bottom line is most river levels are well with in bank. The exception being Maple Rapids which is near bankfull.

Two separate systems will move through the Great Lakes region, one today into tonight and another Friday night into Saturday. Each low pressure system will bring a surge of wind and moisture out of the south. Precipitable water values with each will surge to 1.5 inches or so. These values when compared to the SPC sounding climatology are not only above the daily max for the days in question, but also above the daily max for almost all days in the month of April. What this tells us is the warm/moist air masses that surge in from the south over the next few days will have abundant moisture for this time of year and they will be efficient rain producers. Models have been consistent in showing 1-2 inches area wide by Sunday. They also show a maximum of over 2 inches in West Central Lower Michigan for areas along the Pere Marquette and White Rivers, essentially areas north and west of GRR. We should be able to absorb this moisture without significant issues given the current state of the rivers, but where the heavier totals fall (2+ inches) we will likely see both some short time scale localized flooding as the rain is falling as well as some potential for river flooding as we work into the weekend and early next week. We will be monitoring conditions.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ038- 044>046. Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT today for MIZ039-040. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849.