textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder Temperatures with Occasional Storminess

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Milder Temperatures with Occasional Storminess

The Great Lakes region will have two shortwave troughs coming through this week as cold high pressure is replaced by milder air streams in southwest flow.

The first trough is minoring out as it moves through and the bulk of the QPF remains south of the forecast area. Current POPS and QPF may need to be lowered, especially across the northern forecast area, if this trough continues the flatter, weakening trend shown in some of the model guidance.

A more significant trough ejects out of the western CONUS by the end of the week with rain expected ahead and along a slow moving baroclinic zone from late Friday through Saturday. Current indications are for chance probabilities (30 to 40 percent) for QPF over an inch of rain possible by Saturday, especially with any embedded convection.

Quasi-zonal flow develops over the weekend with an active pattern continuing into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 635 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR (to IFR over the southern locations along I-94) cigs are slowly improving from north to south as drier air moves back into the area. MKG/GRR/LAN still expected to largely clear out this evening, though it's now looking like it'll take longer for the southern sites of AZO/BTL/JXN to get rid of MVFR cigs, potentially after midnight. The signal for development of some fog, again especially over the southern sites, is still there but is not strong, especially if the clouds take their time dissipating. Thus, not thinking the fog will be a big event tonight. Wednesday still looks VFR and nice most of the day at most sites, though another round of MVFR to IFR conditions (cigs and eventually vsbys as well) move in from the south late early Wednesday evening.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.