textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect to move offshore and wind down overnight

- Clipper system to bring light snow accumulations Late Tuesday

- High uncertainty for a potentially more impactful system Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Lake effect to move offshore and wind down overnight

We will be holding on to the Winter Weather Advisory as is with the forecast package this afternoon. There is a good chance that is will be able to be cancelled a bit early.

Light snow has continued today across all of the area, with more concentrated and intense snow showers for the northern and southern sections of the lakeshore. The cyclonic flow and colder air aloft is centered over the entire Great Lakes region. There are many small embedded vorts rotating about over the area contributing to the light snow.

Most of the energy with this low complex will shift to the south and east flanks of the system, driving the major Nor'easter taking shape. For our area, we will see the snow shower activity taper off for most of the inland areas through this evening, and even the lakeshore overnight. This is the result of another sfc reflection of the upper waves dropping through, and turning the mean low level flow to become from the NNE.

Additional accumulations inland will be limited by the light intensity of the snow, and temps around 30F with the increasing strength of the late February sunshine. The lakeshore is likely to see another 1 to 3 inches through overnight as instability remains sufficient with deep moisture through this evening, before deep moisture is lost, inversion heights drop to 3-4k ft, as the flow goes offshore. Some clearing is possible to even likely, especially inland.

- Clipper system to bring light snow accumulations Late Tuesday

We will see a break in any appreciable snow accumulation from overnight tonight through the first half of Tuesday as high pressure passes across the area.

Light snow will develop Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night in association with a fairly strong short wave and associated sfc low moving through. There has been fairly good consistency with this feature, taking the sfc low across mainly Northern Lower Michigan.

This short wave and sfc low track supports the higher snow amounts across Central and Northern Lower where the better gradient of moisture advection/convergence takes place. Even though the low level flow is from the SW ahead of the system, lake enhancement is not really a factor as the cyclonic flow and cold air aloft is not present, so inversion heights are quite low. There is good agreement of the mean snowfall with this being less than an inch along the southern forecast area border along I-94, to around 4 inches or so in the higher elevations of Central Lower.

In the wake of the upper wave and sfc low, we do end up under the cyclonic side of the upper jet, and period of lake effect is likely from Tuesday night into Wednesday with some accumulations likely for the WNW favored areas.

- High uncertainty for a potentially more impactful system Thursday

We have been watching a more interesting system for the period centered around Thursday for a few days now. There has been a great deal of uncertainty with this system as there has been a fairly wide spread in the ensemble members, and a lack of good run to run continuity. A couple of examples of this include a rain scenario a few days ago with the low moving across the state, and ensemble solutions showing a range from little to no snow to approaching a foot.

One trend that has evolved is that the mean track has continued to sink further south with each forecast cycle, and that trend has continued this afternoon. The main axis of precipitation, falling as snow, looks to stay south of the Michigan/Indiana border. That results in probabilities of some of the higher amounts of snow for our area becoming quite low. Until this energy, which is over the Northern Pacific is sampled better, confidence will remain a bit higher than normal with exact details. We will hold with a chance of snow still, with the best chance for the southern portion of the forecast area.

The pattern behind the Thursday system wherever it tracks, will continue to feature an upper flow from the WNW. As has been the case for much of this winter, short waves with precipitation chances will be possible. It does look like in general, that we will see a typical late winter/early spring pattern of periodic chances for varying precipitation types and a roller coaster of up and down temperatures with short waves riding along thew main baroclinic zone over the continent.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 658 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

IFR vsbys materialized as bands of snow showers made their way through southern Lower Michigan. MKG, AZO and BTL continues to have periods of IFR due to those showers. Those showers will continue to move to the south with the heaviest portion expected to move through AZO and BTL over the next 2 hours. Snow showers should lighten to MVFR by 02Z though periods of IFR snow will be possible through 04Z. MVFR vsbys due to snow will remain possible through 06Z. After 06Z the winds will shift to the north and drier air should only allow for light snowfall. After that, conditions will improve due to the gusty northerly flow. Gusty northerly flow will continue through tomorrow. MVFR cigs should finally improve to IFR tomorrow evening.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for MIZ037-043-064- 071. MARINE...None.