textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake Effect Ending, then Drying Out Today

- Light Snow Later Tuesday into Wednesday

- Thawing Out Friday/Saturday Before Cold Again

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Lake Effect Ending, then Drying Out Today

Snow showers are still clipping western Mason, Oceana, and Van Buren Counties overnight. The 00z Nam3km has had a superior handling on the location of the dominant band while the 00z HRRR has been too far offshore. Will keep the highest POPs going across these areas, particularly western Van Buren, through early morning where another 1" or slightly more is possible. Some snow covered roads remain possible and thus winter driving conditions are likely to impact the morning commute for these locations. Elsewhere, either dry conditions or light flurries are occurring. The trend will be for a drying out region-wide as the lake effect subsides.

- Light Snow Later Tuesday into Wednesday

Model guidance continues to show a 500mb shortwave trough swinging through the region Tuesday into Wednesday as a clipper system impacts the state, with the bulk of the snow impacts likely to stay across central and northern Lower MI. Given a surface low track across the U.P. into the Straits, the heaviest snow should be confined to near and north of U.S. 10. However, light snow should extend south to the I-96 corridor later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Current expectations are for 1"-3" north of M-46 with 0.5"-1.0" from I-96 to M-46, then very little south of I-96.

Wednesday morning may have a narrow window for some lake effect snow showers to develop on the back side of the clipper, mainly from I-96 to the north. Nam12 guidance is indicating saturation of the DGZ with -2 to -5 ubar/s of lift from 09z-15z before diminishing. This may support additional light accumulation in spots mid to late morning Wednesday with a decrease in show shower activity into the afternoon.

Ensemble guidance is favoring surface low development to occur across southern IL/IN on Thursday with most ensemble members clustering in that region. As a result the best chances for snow would be across far southern Lower MI into Indiana. Light accumulations may clip the region, so we'll continue to watch trends.

- Thawing Out Friday Before Cooling Down Again This Weekend

We'll add 10 to 15 degrees to the thermometer on Friday as highs recover into the mid to upper 40s and conditions thaw out across the region. This thaw looks to be brief as another cold front may sweep through on Saturday as zonal flow tries to set in with a sharp 850mb thermal gradient potentially setting up over the region. If we stay on the north side of this baroclinic zone highs may struggle to get into the mid/upper 20s Sunday into Monday. While ensemble guidance generally agrees on these temperatures, QPF spread is quite high with a variety of outcomes possible including snow and/or a wintry mix of precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1252 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

No significant changes were made to the inherited TAFs.

Estimated probabilities for the following to occur at any terminal through the period...

IFR restrictions: 5 percent Fuel alternate ceilings: 20 percent (best chances at MKG)

Intermittent MVFR ceilings (greater than 2000 ft) will occur at all terminals, with scattered conditions quite possible overnight, especially at the terminals farther inland (that is, GRR, BTL, JXN, LAN).

Although not explicitly mentioned at all of the terminals, gusty winds will most likely subside in the 02Z timeframe.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.