textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain Friday Night into Saturday, Lower Chances (20 to 40 percent) Sunday

- Mainly Dry Next Week with Warmer Temperatures

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

- Rain Friday Night into Saturday, Lower Chances (20 to 40 percent) Sunday

Dry conditions are expected most of Friday with gusty easterly winds 25 to 35 mph with isolated gusts to 40 mph. These conditions will lead to an elevated fire risk, see the FIRE WEATHER section below.

Rain then moves in Friday night into Saturday morning as the upper level shortwave approaches and low level convergence and moisture advection develop ahead of the surface low. Instability is limited so the potential for thunder is low (less than 20 percent). Drier air then advects into the area behind the low Saturday night into Sunday before another shortwave moves through during the day Sunday. The drier air may limit shower activity Sunday with the best moisture across south central and southeast Michigan. There will be a little more instability to work with, so cannot rule out some isolated thunderstorms.

- Mainly Dry Next Week with Warmer Temperatures

Increasing heights and high pressure look to be present through most of the upcoming week. There are diverging solutions for Wednesday on whether there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms. If we see southerly flow and moisture advection into the region these chances will increase, however if the dry air remains in place no showers or thunderstorms would occur. Highs next week are expected to be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 759 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR conditions will dominate the pattern for the next 24 hours. Winds are subsiding and will continue to do so over the next few hours. There will be very weak jet aloft, around 30 to 35 kts that will move overhead between 06Z to 12Z. However it is not strong enough to warrant LLWS in TAF. SFC winds will be in the similar direction around 5 to 10 kts. Winds will remain out of the east becoming gusty tomorrow mid morning with gusts continuing throughout the day.

MARINE

Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Easterly winds are expected to continue into Saturday with light and variable winds Sunday into next week. Isolated gusts may approach Small Craft Advisory levels tonight through Friday, however confidence is not high enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. Waves are expected to remain 2 feet or less through most of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Friday especially for areas along and north of a Muskegon to Mount Pleasant line. Gusty easterly winds of 25 to 35 mph with isolated gusts to 40 mph and low relative humidity values in the mid 20s to mid 30s will create conditions for fires to easily spread. Pay attention to any burn bans and avoid outdoor activities that may create a spark.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.