textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Morning fog in portions of Central and South-Central Michigan

- Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms today into tonight

- Breezy Friday with snow showers into the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Morning fog in portions of Central and South-Central Michigan

Dense fog or freezing fog has settled over Central Michigan near and north of Alma to Big Rapids. Dense fog from Southeast Michigan has crept into eastern and central Ingham and Jackson counties per satellite and MDOT cameras. Some further westward advancement in Ingham and Jackson is possible but not certain. May have to join DTX in extending the advisory later in the morning. Some guidance sources erode the fog after daybreak with increasing surface winds but other guidance holds onto it until midday, particularly in Central Michigan. Fog may also return to Central Mich for a portion of tonight.

- Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms today into tonight

Early morning showers and thunderstorms have developed in northern Indiana, earlier than most of tonight's models have suggested, where south winds around 850 mb are advecting moist air underneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This complex may skirt Jackson on its way to Southeast Michigan this morning, but confidence is fairly low in its evolution and impact. Several runs of the HRRR, which have been relatively aggressive in bringing just enough instability for a chance of thunderstorms into south-central Michigan this morning, suggest gusty southeast winds could emanate northwest of the precip complex.

Mid-latitude cyclone out of Kansas today is expected to deepen as it tracks to West Michigan by Friday morning. Out ahead of it will be another mild day for much of the area, followed by modest midlevel instability to support showers and a slight chance of thunder from this evening into tonight.

- Breezy Friday with snow showers into the weekend

Cold air advection will be more pronounced on the south side of the low-pressure system's track Friday, with strong wind gusts over 40- 50 mph possible in southern Michigan depending on the low's eventual depth. Rain showers will also change to wet snow during the day.

The broader synoptic pattern turns more favorable for lake-effect snow showers over the weekend with deeper troughing and cyclonic flow with colder 850 mb air flowing in. Can't count out some limited to minor winter weather impacts on roads. Temperatures will be close to normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1121 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected with a 20 percent chance for MVFR visibilities to develop by Thursday morning. We'll need to monitor the dense fog to the north and east. It may try to expand westward into LAN and JXN. At this time confidence is not high enough that it will expand that far west, therefore have not included it in the forecast. Showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will be possible later Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Best chances 40-50 percent will be from AZO to JXN and up to LAN. Ceilings will be lowering from VFR to IFR Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with another round of rain and a few thunderstorms moving in after 00Z. At this time left the mention of thunder out of the TAF forecast as confidence was not high enough that thunder would impact any one TAF site.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ039-040- 045-046-051-052-067-074. MARINE...None.