textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry Weather Monday Afternoon through Wednesday

- Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Late Wednesday Night into Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Dry Weather Monday Afternoon through Wednesday

Dew points in portions of the area have dropped into the lower 50s this morning, the driest air since June 23. Dew points may rebound slightly with mixing as 850 mb air is still fairly moist, though the next few days won't be as oppressive as last week. High temperatures will still be near seasonal norms today, climbing back up close to 90 again for midweek. However, the heat index should stay in check.

- Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Late Wednesday Night into Thursday

Quasi-zonal upper level flow midweek will tend to become a little troughier over the Great Lakes on Thursday. CAPE is favored to increase to about 1000 J/kg on Thursday along with deep layer shear around 20-30 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of a weak cold front under the right entrance region of a 250 jet. The chance of severe storms is not zero but it is fairly low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 717 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A few light rain showers near JXN will weaken later this morning. Scattered stratocumulus cloud development around 3,000 feet is possible this morning around AZO, BTL, and JXN, though confidence is fairly low. All cloud bases should rise above 3,000 feet by afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Chance of small craft advisory and beach hazard conditions later this afternoon along much of West Michigan shore. This is a tough call, though feel confident in at least moderate swim risk especially for beaches to the north of piers. High resolution models increase the nearshore wind field to generally 15-18 knots from the north-northwest this afternoon, which is usually enough for marginally hazardous conditions late in the day, with longshore to structural currents developing and waves building 2 to 4, perhaps 3 to 5 feet.

This is an advancing high pressure system setup, which along with the daytime lake breeze, contributes to increase winds along the Michigan shoreline often more than expected. While the center of the large-scale high is NE of Michigan instead of NW, there is a ridge axis expected to extend out from it into Wisconsin. Given the expected winds in the best-performing models, there isn't much room for error to keep wave conditions out of the high swim risk range.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for MIZ043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>848.