textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Tranquil and Relatively Warm This Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Tranquil and Relatively Warm This Week

Minimal weather concerns this week as there will be a tendency for high pressure over the Great Lakes region and beyond much of the time. A very El-Nino-looking split upper level jet is over North America this week, and Michigan will be under weak flow through Wednesday.

High temperatures will generally reside in the mid to upper 60s while the 30-year normal highs slip into the upper 50s. With the mostly clear skies and light winds, nightly lows will be closer to normal, between the mid 30s and mid 40s. Areas of fog Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning are possible. After today, all ensemble members are very light on winds, until there is just a minor uptick Thursday and and into the weekend when a couple of weak troughs ripple through the pattern. The lack of moisture and lift wouldn't favor much more than a chance of sprinkles.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Very dry air and VFR conditions will persist at all West Michigan TAF sites, thanks to high pressure over the northeastern CONUS and eastern Great Lakes.

SW breezes will continue through the TAF period, though the gustiness being observed this afternoon at some sites should diminish this evening /with the exception of MKG, where gusts to around 20kt will persist along the Lake MI shoreline/. As a very weak surface front sags into northern Lower MI Monday, the pressure gradient will weaken so the SW winds will be lighter to start the work week.

MARINE

Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Wind and wave observations in the nearshore have been firmly in small craft advisory territory with gusts 25 to 30 knots, waves 3-5 feet around South Haven, and greater than 6 feet north of Holland. Gale force gusts have so far only been in northern Lake Michigan and should remain that way. Winds weaken gradually tonight and conditions will improve south of South Haven, but waves may take until later Monday morning to come down between Holland and Manistee. After that, no concerns for the next several days.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LMZ845>849.