textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of snow through Fri, with freezing drizzle likely tonight

- Much colder this weekend with some lake effect along the lakeshore

- Quiet early next week with moderating temperatures

UPDATE

Issued at 1041 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Have elected to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from Allegan to Kent to Montcalm counties and north. Low-level water vapor shows an ample dry slot across Minnesota with Duluth reporting several hours of freezing drizzle. This lends credence to the chance of a period of freezing drizzle this evening into tonight. Given lower snow amounts between the two systems and a weaker FZDZ signal, areas south and east of the current advisory will remain headline free for now and will re-evaluate with the afternoon package. Look for 2-4" of snow and likely light icing in the advisory area, with 1-3" of snow and a chance of light icing elsewhere. The other concern to evaluate this afternoon is the potential for squall- like elements along the arctic front Friday given a bit of low- level instability bringing heavier showers and reduced visbys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Periods of snow through Fri, with freezing drizzle likely tonight

Not much going on across the forecast area this morning, with somewhat impactful weather poised to move in this morning and linger into Friday.

Plenty of light echoes on the regional radar imagery this morning over MN and WI, with limited light snow reports so far. The expectation remains that the light snow will expand in coverage as this entire area moves toward the forecast area. This is all ahead of a short wave currently over Manitoba that will continue dropping SE and strengthening over time today. This is expected to bring a few hours of light snow from mid morning through mid afternoon.

The fast nature of this first system, along with it taking time to saturate the low-mid levels on the front end, and quick departure of the moisture in the DGZ on the back end will limit snow accumulation potential. As has been mentioned, there will be some lake enhancement for the favored areas in SW flow. Inversion heights being relatively low however will limit how much the lake will enhance it.

The potentially most impactful period from today through Friday could actually be from late this afternoon through much of the overnight hours in the form of freezing drizzle. As mentioned above, it appears we lose the DGZ late this afternoon, and don't saturate it again until just prior to daybreak Friday morning. There are some minor timing differences with regards to the DGZ becoming unsaturated later today, and whether there will actually be precipitation between the systems. Some subtle hints of freezing drizzle/freezing mist are found in some of the fog/visibility progs. Also, moisture is low enough in the column, and plenty of omega/forcing is present to support precipitation continuing. We were close to pulling the trigger on an advisory for this, but confidence being just a tad too low for us and neighboring offices ultimately prevented us from issuing this morning. The day shift can continue to monitor the trends and pull the trigger if needed.

Any freezing drizzle/mist around overnight is expected to change back to snow just prior to daybreak Friday. We see deeper moisture return with the next wave to resaturate the DGZ. This wave does not look to be a direct hit on the forecast area as it ends up moving by to our west. We will see some light snow Friday morning with broad scale forcing acting on the column of moisture in place. Then, we will see an arctic front drop south through the area mid-day Friday as a stronger upper wave with origins from the arctic moves by to our NE. This front could have some brief, yet intense snow showers with it.

- Much colder this weekend with some lake effect along the lakeshore

Once the arctic front moves through Friday afternoon, we will see a surge of cold air return to the area. The passage of the front will also turn the mean low level flow to become from the NNE. Lake effect snow showers will get going with the arrival of the arctic air, but we are not expecting any significant accumulations for multiple reasons. Those include the upper jet staying NE of the area, inversion heights dropping to around 5k ft, a lack of deep moisture, and the flow being offshore in nature.

Some snow showers may persist near Little and Big Sable Points, and down toward extreme western Van Buren county, but most areas will stay dry. In fact, skies are likely to at least partially clear out for most areas on Saturday with upper ridging building over the area, and persisting into Sunday.

- Quiet early next week with moderating temperatures

We will see the NW flow aloft continue over the area early next week, but this will be much different than what we have seen much of the winter. The upper ridge that has been dominating the weather for the Western U.S. will have moved to the Plains. We will have higher heights than we have seen much of the winter. In addition, the pattern favors that we will see generally more air from the Pacific, and the lower levels will eventually shift to the south, bringing warmer air over the area.

There has been some concern a messy system could arrive around Wednesday with a wintry mix of precipitation. This has now been delayed by model ensemble means to arrive after Wednesday as the Western trough takes time to become established, and send energy up toward the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Light snow continues to fall across the region as a short wave aloft moves across Lower MI. RH profiles indicate that the DGZ will become unsaturated this afternoon and eveing which will result in some freezing drizzle mixed with the snow. Total amount of ice looks to be around a hundredth or two as we move into the morning hours Friday. IFR conditions are expected much of the period.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ037>039- 043>045-050-051-056-057-064. MARINE...None.