textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and Mild with Morning Fog

- Chances for Rain Return Next Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Dry and Mild with Morning Fog

Ensembles continue to lend high confidence in tranquil and warmer than normal conditions through the weekend. A sharpening upper level ridge over the central CONUS will reinforce a sprawling high pressure anticyclone in the low levels across the Great Lakes, migrating toward the Northeast. There is increasing ensemble spread and thus lower confidence in high temperatures starting on Monday and extending through the week, and highs may plausibly be anywhere in the 50s or 60s. This will depend on the magnitude of northern stream troughing that occurs over south-central Canada and the Great Lakes, and the southward extent which cooler air may reach. Ensemble members also diverge into clusters regarding the the potential for a recovery of warmer air around the middle of the week. So, next week is relatively unsettled.

Areas of fog are likely to develop each of the next few mornings, as they have the past couple mornings. The REFS handled the general location of the Wednesday morning fog threat in Mid Michigan fairly well. For this Thursday morning it has been suggesting areas of overnight fog mainly between Muskegon and Ludington, which has so far been the case, and patchy fog may develop elsewhere around daybreak. Tonight into Friday morning, with the surface high centered north of Lake Huron, a flow of relatively moist air off Lake Huron will spread into Mid Michigan during the late evening, setting up fog potential first near US-127 and spreading west toward US-131 areas around daybreak Friday.

- Chances for Rain Return Next Week

The chance for precipitation is basically nil until about Tuesday or Wednesday next week, and even so is far from settled. Any individual model solutions producing heavy rain or strong winds the middle of next week are outliers. The potential for a significant autumn storm system -- even with the unsettled evolution of the northern stream -- is remarkably low for this point in the season.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 716 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Fog has remained shallow and/or patchy, with a few AWOS locations reporting IFR. There was a denser patch of fog about 15 to 25 miles NNW of MKG earlier seen on satellite nighttime microphysics and highway webcams, but that seems to have improved somewhat. Light winds are expected today, generally from the north but with some variability by location. There is another signal for fog tonight with relatively moist air flowing in from Lake Huron this evening, which would favor fog development around US-127 at first, moving west toward US-131.

MARINE

Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Light winds and a rather calm lake can be expected today. Southeast winds on Friday will be a touch stronger but only about 10 knots. South winds on Saturday 15 to 20 knots may build waves to 2 to 4 feet north of Whitehall.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...None.