textproduct: Grand Rapids

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk Severe on Monday

- Cool with Frost/Freeze Potential This Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

- Marginal Risk Severe on Monday

Southwest flow with modest moisture return and elevated instability ahead of an advancing cold front is expected to touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and evening. Deep layer shear of 35 knots will aid the cause. Any sustained updrafts could produce hail and strong winds are also a threat given DCAPE resulting from evaporation of precip in a dry adiabatic sub cloud layer. The threat diminishes after midnight as the cold front moves through.

- Cool with Frost/Freeze Potential This Week

The front stalls across the Ohio Valley with a surface low tracking northeast along the front. At this point it looks like the precip shield stays east of Lower Michigan. Frost/Freeze conditions will return for Tuesday and Wednesday nights

Showers are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough and vorticity maximum moves though and model soundings show wet-bulb zero heights not far off the surface across the northern zones, so graupel or wet snow is possible there. Frost/Freeze potential lingers into next weekend and beyond as a cold northwest flow regime continues.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 150 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR is expected to continue with ceilings mostly above 5,000 feet as scattered rain showers pass through this afternoon. Clouds go scattered to few tonight. Gusty southwest winds this afternoon relax a little and become south overnight, then become gusty from the southwest again Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

No changes to the SCA. There will be a brief lull tonight then another SCA will be needed for Monday into Monday night.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ844>849.