textproduct: Green Bay
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Periods of rain expected through Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially Monday night into Tuesday.
- The highest probability (40-80%) of rainfall totals greater than 2 inches resides over east central WI. Localized urban flooding is possible.
- Temperatures climb well above normal on Monday, then cool back off to near normal by mid-week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 351 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Monday
Precip...Steady rain was occurring across nearly the entire forecast area at 21Z due to forcing from a mid-level shortwave, low-level jet, and RRQ of an upper jet. Moisture was also increasing with pwats of 1.2 to 1.3 inches surging into the southern half of Wisconsin. Expect the rain to continue for the next few hours, becoming moderate and heavy at times. Impacts will be minimal due to relatively dry soil, but some minor urban flooding is possible, particularly if there is a location with clogged storm drains due to fallen leaves.
Late this evening, the strongest forcing shifts east, and pwats also decrease. This will bring an end to the moderate/steady rain, from southwest to northeast. With virtually no instability do not expect any lightning to occur. Rainfall totals through this evening will range from about half an inch to an inch area wide, highest in central Wisconsin, and lowest across the far north and far east.
Overnight and into Monday, as the main area of rain moves out, lingering low level moisture and weak forcing will continue to support light, scattered to widely scattered showers. Lowered PoPs again from the previous shift, but if trends in the CAMs continue may need to lower even further. Many of these models show a prolonged lull overnight and Monday, especially in central and northern Wisconsin. The exception is across eastern Wisconsin where a shortwave tracking across southern Lake Michigan into Lower Michigan may be close enough to bring some light to moderate rain again late tonight and Monday morning.
Wind...Southeast winds have increased this afternoon with gusts to around 25 mph. This will continue through mid- evening, diminish some overnight, with southerly to southwest winds gusting to around 20 mph on Monday.
Temperatures...Temperatures have been steady in the 40s/low 50s today under thick clouds and rain. With warm advection overnight expect a nondiurnal trend with readings rising a few degrees overnight. By daybreak expect temps in the upper 40s to upper 50s, and then rising into the lower and middle 60s Monday afternoon.
Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday
Unsettled weather pattern continues into Tuesday, then quiet conditions return mid-late week. Temps will drop back closer to normal by Wednesday.
Monday night through Tuesday evening...the break/lull in the steady rainfall will continue into Monday evening, but a more widespread rain will push back into the area Monday night into Tuesday as impressive moisture transport continues across the Great Lakes within the strong south/southwest flow. The Gulf of Mexico will remain open for business, with PWATs climbing to between 1.25-1.50" or 2-3.5 standard deviations above early November normals. This will produce a period of heavier rain over east central WI (additional inch or two of rain) as the LLJ/upper forcing and moisture is maxed out as the front pushes through. Some minor urban flooding will be possible, especially where leaves are still present to block storm drains. Rises in some area rivers is also expected, but the overall flooding threat will remain low due to the extended nature of these rain events and with the expected lulls/breaks. The widespread soaking rains, combined with the rain from late October and today, will continue to make a dent in the drought conditions.
Low chances (10-25%) for thunder with MUCAPEs up to ~500 J/kg, steepening lapse rates Monday night into Tuesday. Severe weather chances will be very low due to the limited instability. However, the stronger winds aloft may mix down at times producing gusty winds. Models trending a little colder on the back side of the low, so as the rain comes to an end Tuesday evening, a little snow may mix in over far north central WI, but not expecting any accumulation.
Rest of the extended...quiet and seasonable conditions are expected Wed-Fri as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Models continue to slow down the approach of a closed low ejecting out from the Four Corners region late in the week. Best chances are now in the Saturday night into Sunday morning timeframe.
AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Moderate to heavy rain with IFR/MVFR conditions continues through late evening. However, a push of dry air with lessening rain intensity is seen upstream and may lead to conditions improving at times to VFR at GRB/ATW/MTW, so have introduced TEMPO groups to cover this. Though the coverage and intensity of the rain decreases all areas overnight into Monday, LIFR/IFR conditions will persist, especially in terms of CIGS. Some improvement to lower MVFR CIGS is expected on Monday afternoon at GRB/ATW/MTW.
SE winds will stay elevated at times this evening with gusts of 20-30 kts. Gusts subside overnight, and then increase again from the S/SW on Monday. LLWS is also ongoing, and will not diminish until late tonight.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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