textproduct: Green Bay

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow late Wednesday night into Thursday, then again on Thursday night. Greatest chances (40-60%) for inch or more of snow north central WI to far northeast WI, and over Door County.

- Another batch of light snow (less than 1") Saturday night with greatest chances (20-30%) north-central and far northeast WI. - Brief warmup on Thursday with highs at least in the low 30s. Parts of central WI have 60-80% of reaching above freezing.

- Falling temperatures on Friday, with readings back below normal to start of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

No widespread higher impact weather is expected through the weekend. Some light snow is expected in a couple waves early Thursday through early Friday. After brief warmup on Thursday, it will turn colder Friday into Saturday. This shot of cold will not near as extreme as what we saw at the end of January. Another system may bring another chance of snow the middle of next week.

Precip chances: Clipper shortwave and sfc low crossing Manitoba and northern Ontario will lead to warm air advection, isentropic ascent over the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Model soundings point to saturation in low-levels the farther south one goes from Upper Michigan border region into Door County. Break in the snow occurs later Thursday, then arrival of stronger wave and primary cold front brings another round of light snow Thursday evening through late Thursday night. Mid-level moisture cuts decreasing late Thursday night does open door to freezing drizzle potential portions of central WI to eastern WI. Soundings offer mixed signals whether there will be any precip at all after the snow ends. Nudged pops up some Saturday night as another clipper shortwave and sfc trough track across the western Great Lakes region. Think the GFS showing over 0.20 inch of QPF in northern WI is overdone (well over the 90th percentile from LREF Grand Ensemble), but ensembles and other models suggest a quick hitting batch of light snow (<1") especially northern parts of WI.

Looking further ahead, and beyond the scope of this forecast, signal emerging for low pressure system to cross central CONUS middle of next week. This could bring a widespread snow to the area Wed-Thu time frame. Have to shoot past the 90th percentile to see much snow accumulation of note in the ensembles yet, but we'll see if the agreement continues and if mean/higher end numbers trend upward.

Temperatures/Winds: After nearish normal high temps in the lower to middle 20s into Wednesday, a bonafide warm up (albeit only lasting one day) is expected on Thursday. Highs reach at least the low 30s for all but northern tier of WI, along with 60-80% chance of exceeding 35F in area of Waushara, Waupaca, western Outagamie and western Winnebago counties. Does not look appreciably sunny though as clouds linger after the morning snow. Temps only slowly fall into Thursday night and early Friday, then drop off on Friday as coldest air arrives. Readings bottom out below zero Friday night into Saturday morning, with lowest apparent temps down to 5 to 10 below zero. Temps moderate back toward normal on Sunday, with another period of above freezing temps in the offing early next week.

In terms of winds, it will be moderately breezy from the southwest on Thursday. Stronger northwest winds for Friday as the cold front moves through. Gusts on land will reach at least 25 mph, but stronger gusts over 35 mph will be restricted to the Lake Michigan waters. Forecast soundings and LREF probabilities suggest a lower risk of gale gusts (40%) on Lake Michigan Friday morning, mainly toward Washington Island. Overall looks like solid high-end Small Craft Advisory conditions.

AVIATION

for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 454 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Primary aviation impact through the TAF period will be a period of MVFR cigs as lake induced status off Lake Superior drifts south this evening. RAP/HRRR soundings show these clouds in a very thin layer so it's possible cigs stay mainly SCT. Additionally mid-level clouds currently over western WI will drift over the area tonight. Skies should clear out again late tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through Wednesday morning with a more steady NW breezy developing during the afternoon.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.