textproduct: Green Bay

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances expected tonight, Tuesday night into early Wednesday, Thursday night into Friday, and over the weekend.

- Windy tonight and Monday. Gale force gusts expected on Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan tonight.

- Near to slightly above normal normal temperatures anticipated through the work week, then cooler next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Mostly cloudy skies covered the region this afternoon, and southwest winds were gusting to 25 to 35 mph in most areas. Temperatures were in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

A short-wave trough, LFQ of a 160 knot jet streak and a cold frontal passage will bring light rain to the region tonight. Moisture will be disjointed across the northwest part of the forecast area this evening, but deeper saturation is expected in eastern WI, so higher pops and rainfall amounts (still less than a tenth of an inch in most areas) will be found farther east. Strong southwest winds will continue tonight, with gusts to 25 to 30 mph expected in most areas, and locally higher gusts to 35 to 40 mph along the Door County shoreline. Precipitation should end along the Lake Michigan shoreline by 08z-09z/Mon, followed by clearing skies. Winds will switch to the west as the cold front moves through late tonight.

A sunny, mild and windy day is anticipated on Monday. Have increased wind gusts to 25 to 35 mph, and bumped up high temperatures a degree or two. The gusty winds, combined with RHs of 20 to 30 percent in th sandy soil areas, will result in elevated fire weather conditions in the afternoon.

Another moisture-starved system is expected Tuesday into Wednesday. The surface low is trending farther north, which results in most of the precipitation falling over the Upper Peninsula of MI and far northern WI.

Additional systems will impact the region Thursday night into Friday, and over the weekend, and appear to have better potential to produce widespread precipitation. The weekend system will be much colder, with a mix of rain/snow expected.

Temperatures look to remain at or slightly above normal through the work week, then drop below normal for the weekend.

AVIATION

for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 502 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals for the 00Z TAF period, though a cold front will bring a period of light rain and a brief drop in ceilings overnight. The primary aviation hazard will be Low-Level Wind Shear (LLWS) through late Monday morning.

VFR ceilings (BKN-OVC 080-120) will prevail this evening, lowering to 050-080 OVC with a period of -RA between 03Z and 08Z as the front moves through. Confidence is low for widespread MVFR ceilings, as upstream observations have been limited. However, KRHI may briefly touch MVFR with ceilings around 030-040 BKN between 06Z and 08Z. Skies will rapidly clear post-front, with SCT conditions by 09Z-10Z and SKC by 12Z Monday.

Strong S-SW winds 15G25KT this evening will veer to the W-NW overnight. By Monday afternoon, strong daytime mixing will increase W-NW gusts to 25-30 kts at all sites.

Significant LLWS is expected at all terminals. Winds at 2000 ft (WS020) will be 40-50 kts from the SW this evening, veering to the W-NW overnight. This LLWS will persist until roughly 16Z Monday, when surface winds increase and mixing begins.

Looking ahead, LLWS is expected to re-develop over far northern WI Monday night, which will impact KRHI.

MARINE

Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Southwest winds have been gradually increasing, with SCA conditions currently being reported on Lake Michigan. Still expecting Gales to impact the bay and northern part of Lake Michigan this evening, when 925 mb winds peak at 40 to 45 knots, so no changes will be made to the current headlines.

Although winds will ease some late tonight into Monday, continued gusts to 25 to 30 knots will necessitate the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory over the entire marine forecast area after the Gale Warnings have expired.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.