textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- An approaching upper level low will bring another round of precipitation to the region this evening into Monday morning. Low chance of flooding from this system.

- Patchy dense fog possible the next few mornings.

- Temperatures may fall into the mid 30's Tuesday morning, mainly along/north of Highway 36.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Synoptic Overview: An upper level low centered over the 4-Corners at 18Z this afternoon will lift northeastward across central Colorado (tonight) the Nebraska Panhandle (Monday). An associated lee cyclone prognosticated to develop over southeast CO tonight will track NNE across far northwest KS (Mon morning) and central Nebraska (Mon afternoon).

Through Monday: Challenging forecast. Differential positive vorticity advection (DPVA) associated with the approaching upper low and strengthening low-level southerly flow/warm advection on the eastern periphery of the attendant lee cyclone in southeast CO will facilitate the development of widespread showers after sunset (~02Z). Expect the majority of additional rainfall (generally ~0.10 to 0.50") to occur between 03-12Z / 9p-6a MDT with precipitation ending from SW to NE shortly after sunrise, ~12-15Z / 6-9a MDT. Locally heavier rainfall amounts (~1") are possible near the KS-CO-NE border, where forcing will be more synergistic, i.e. in close proximity to the upper low, where DPVA will be stronger and on the northeast periphery of the northeastward advancing lee cyclone, where low-level convergence, warm advection and frontogenesis will be maximized. High-res guidance suggests that the heaviest rain (overall) will likely be confined to northeast NM, the TX- OK Panhandle and portions of southwest Kansas (south of the Goodland CWA), where rich low-level moisture and ~500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE will fuel deeper, more widespread convection. Expect highs ranging anywhere from the lower-mid 40's to mid-upper 60's, coolest in Yuma County and in southwest Nebraska and warmest in southern/eastern portions of the area, e.g. Leoti- Gove City- Hill City.

Monday night: Guidance suggests that a cooler airmass (850 mb temps 0 to 4C) in western Nebraska, the southern-most extent of an inverted surface ridge extending southward from ~1038 mb high pressure in Saskatchewan/Manitoba.. reinforced by rain, evap cooling and pervasive cloud cover over western Nebraska.. will push southward into northern portions of the Goodland CWA (during the day) then recede northward Mon night as a southerly return flow regime is rapidly re-established in the lee of the Rockies. Overnight lows will be a complex function of the location and timing of the receding front.. cloud cover (initially a clearing trend, then increasing cloud cover with pervasive low stratus development, perhaps patchy dense fog) and winds, which may range anywhere from light/variable or calm in northeast portions of the area to a modest southerly breeze in eastern CO, where temps may steadily rise after midnight. Expect above-freezing lows ranging from the mid-upper 30's to the 40's, coolest in southwest Nebraska and warmest along/south of I-70 in CO.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 250 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be fairly consistent through Friday. Starting Tuesday afternoon, we transition to more of a southwest upper-level flow. This will usher in several days of mostly sunny skies with high temperatures forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s through Friday. The western county warning area (CWA) could see some breezy afternoons with wind gusts around 25 mph possible. Compared to previous runs, models have overall backed down on the wind potential for Tuesday afternoon, but NBM still has around a 30% chance for wind gusts over 30 mph for Kit Carson county.

Friday, a trough off the coast of British Columbia will begin to dig south and has the potential to switch us to more of an active weather pattern. Models are uncertain on the track and evolution of the deepening trough, but beginning Friday afternoon through Sunday evening, several embedded shortwave passages are forecast to move through the area bringing chances for precipitation. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 20-30%, increasing from west to east. Precipitation chances and amounts will heavily depend on where the trough ends up setting up and how quickly it moves through the area. Regardless of precipitation chances, temperatures are forecast to be pleasant Friday through Sunday with highs in the 60s to 70s across the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 435 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

..Low confidence in flight category and wind direction late Monday morning into Monday afternoon..

GLD: IFR ceilings will deteriorate to LIFR or VLIFR an hour or so on either side of sunset (~00-02Z) as ceilings lower to 200-300 ft AGL and showers redevelop over eastern CO and western KS. The majority of guidance suggests that conditions will begin to improve late Monday morning, with further improvement to MVFR and VFR during the afternoon. Light/variable winds will prevail through tonight, then become southerly and increase to 12-15 knots after sunrise. Winds may shift to the NW or NNW during the late morning to early afternoon, depending on the precise evolution of a low pressure system progressing NNE across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska.

MCK: MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to LIFR within a few hours after sunset (~01-04Z), as ceilings lower and showers begin to redevelop over western KS and southwest NE. Poor aviation conditions may persist through much of the 00Z TAF period. The majority of guidance suggests that -some- improvement may occur during the afternoon. Light E or NE winds will prevail through tonight. Winds may become southerly for a short period after sunrise. Winds are expected to shift to the NW and increase to 12-17 knots during the late morning to early afternoon, depending on the precise evolution of a low pressure system progressing NNE across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 241 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

As mentioned in the short-term discussion above, we are expecting on and off precipitation to last into Monday evening. So far, the event is unfolding as expected. As of 7Z, most of the CWA has received some precipitation. The east-southeastern CWA is currently the area where little/no precipitation has yet fallen. The bulk of it has fallen in a roughly 30 mile wide band from Towner, CO to Trenton, NE. In this band, initial reports suggest 0.5-1.25 inches of rain has fallen. An additional widespread 0.1-0.3 inches, a band of 1-2 inches, and pockets of up to 3 inches of rainfall by midnight Tuesday morning is forecast.

There is a notable variation between deterministics and ensembles with this forecast: where the higher precipitation band sets up. Ensembles favor it staying in place (denoted in the first paragraph) while deterministics push it fully into eastern Colorado. Either way, it appears that the eastern CWA will continue to receive the least amount of precipitation from this event.

If the band remains in place, there is a 35% chance of areal and/or river flooding. Low water crossings will likely be the first areas impacted from any flooding that does occur. If the band shifts to the west, that risk drops to around 5-10%. The risk for Flash Flooding still remains low, now around 10% and would favor areas that received the heavier precipitation and are south of I-70.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.