textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow accumulations less than 1 inch are possible through tonight, mainly north of Interstate 70.

- Wind chills as low as -15 F are possible late tonight into Saturday morning, mainly for locations east of Highway 83.

- Above average temperatures in the 50s to around 60 are forecast to return Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 220 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

An upper trough has been observed on satellite swinging through the Northern Plains during the morning hours. As it has done so, higher surface pressure has moved into the Plains, with a pseudo cold front pushing from east to west through the area. With the colder air and front, some snow showers have been able to develop and move through mainly northern parts of the area. That being said, drier air near the surface and a lack of organization have led to no accumulations or impacts at this time.

The snow chances are forecast to continue through the evening and overnight hours as the frontal boundary remains over the area while the surface high slides east of the area. The center of the high pressure and the colder air mass should scrape counties like Norton and Graham (along with neighboring counties) and bring temperatures down to the single digits and potentially the negatives. The chance for negative temperatures has lowered as the combination of weak surface winds underneath the high and cloud cover should limit cooling to cold air advection. With the center of the high forecast to be east of the area, temperatures are not forecast to drop as much. There is still a small chance than Norton, Graham, and maybe surrounding counties could reach -15F wind chills tonight. But the high weakening winds and cloud cover trying to keep temperatures up maybe just lead to negative single digits instead.

Tomorrow, the main trough axis is forecast to push off to the east. This should push off the lower level moisture to the east and end most of the snow chances. The exception is that another trough is suggested to move through the flow and may provide just enough lift for a few snow showers generally for counties along the Nebraska border. Accumulations would again be fairly minimal, if any. As for temperatures, those to the east are likely to see temperatures remain in the 20s and 30s with the combination of being closer to the colder air mass and cloud cover likely staying in place through the day. To the west, away from the cold air mass and where clouds are forecast to clear, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 40s and 50s. Tomorrow night, temperatures should drop into the 20s with clear skies and dewpoints in the upper teens and low 20s.

Sunday, the ridge to the west is forecast to move shift more east over the area. This is forecast to lead to a lighter flow over the area and generally keep winds around 12 mph or less and gusts below 20 mph. Temperatures should be warmer with westerly low level flow and mostly clear skies except for maybe some high cloud cover. Temperatures should reach the 60s across most of the area, unless the high cloud cover is thick as temperatures will then likely cap in the 50s. Will need to keep an eye on the pattern as any stronger winds may lead to some critical fire weather concerns with the warm and dry pattern allowing RH to drop into the teens for western portions of the area. Sunday night, temperatures are forecast to drop into the 20s with light winds and a mix of clouds and clear skies.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 150 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

A shortwave ridge is forecast to be overhead Monday morning, with a shortwave trough coming across the Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis looks to occur near the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle Region in association with the incoming trough. A brief return flow would be able to set up during the morning and early afternoon hours Monday, which could provide warming across the forecast area. High temperatures in the upper-50s and low-60s are possible across the forecast region.

The shortwave trough looks to fully replace the ridge overhead between the late afternoon and evening hours on Monday. This will correspond to eastward movement of the surface low pressure to our south, and create northerly flow across the CWA. Cooling is forecasted to take place once this occurs, with low temperatures forecasted to be in the mid to upper-20s Monday night. Isolated snow dustings are also possible overnight Monday.

This system is forecast to stay in place through Tuesday evening and possibly overnight. Continued cooling would promote high temperatures in the low to mid-50s Tuesday, with lows in the low to mid-20s. Additionally, wind gusts could be in the mid to upper-20s Tuesday afternoon. RH in the upper-20s to low-30s do not implicate fire weather as a concern, but uncontrolled fires could spread more rapidly than normal in these conditions. Isolated snow dustings/showers are also possible overnight Tuesday, mainly across Eastern Colorado. Accumulations could be as high as about an inch in some localized areas.

By Wednesday morning, northerly to northwesterly flow looks to be established over the forecast area, and will persist through the end of the period. This could allow some embedded shortwave troughs to be ejected into the interior United States, which would allow for periods of higher and lower temperatures across the CWA. The initial shortwave ejected from this system could begin to impact the region as early as the late evening hours Wednesday. The shortwave trough would be ejected southeastward through South-Central Canada and the Upper Midwest, with an attendant surface low pressure out ahead. As this occurs, a surface high in the North-Central Plains would be forced southward, which would work with the incoming low to create westerly, downsloping surface winds across the CWA. High temperatures in association with this process could reach into the low to mid-60s. Additionally, low-humidity air would be allowed to enter the forecast region from the mountains. RH values in the mid to upper-teens in combination with wind gusts between 25 and 30 mph across Eastern Colorado could present some critical fire weather concerns. If RH values can fall into the low to mid-teens, and wind gusts can hold to what is currently forecasted, a Red Flag Warning may be needed.

As the surface low pressure continues to move southeast, surface winds would shift to approximately north-northwesterly, which would allow for more cooling to take place. However, there is some uncertainty as to when this could take place. Current model guidance suggests that this wind shift could occur between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. Current forecast high temperatures for Friday are in the mid to upper-50s across the region, but a faster wind shift on Thursday instead of Friday could lower these high temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees. Another short wave ejection could begin overnight Friday, which could provide for another period of warming going into Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1003 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast for the first few hours, There are a few flurries in the area, but nothing organized to put into the forecast at this time. Around 21Z, the greater moisture concentration to the northeast should shift over the terminal and lower ceiling to around 1000-1500ft. The ceilings are then forecast to remain low until after 06Z, when a drier air mass from the west should begin to push in and lift ceilings. After that, VFR conditions are forecast going into tomorrow morning.

For KMCK... Ceilings around 1000ft are forecast to continue through the afternoon until drier air pushes in from the north. Ceilings should generally remain above 1000ft, but ceilings as low as 500ft are possible, especially with snow showers. A few weak bands of snow are possible through the first few hours of the period. Given the current forecast, the snow could either move over the terminal, or be within 10-15 miles. Either way, the chances should decrease after 20Z and end by 00Z. The rest of the period after 00Z is forecast to have VFR conditions, but there will remain a 5-10% chance for light snow showers through 12Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.