textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to record highs today with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Localized critical fire weather conditions are possible today as well due to the warm temperatures.

- Showers and perhaps an isolated dry thunderstorm during the afternoon to evening hours. Little to no accumulation is currently forecast. - Brief mid week cool down before warm temperatures and fire weather concerns return Thursday and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1223 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Northwest flow due to a upper level ridge over the Western CONUS while low pressure sits off the Southern California coast. A lee trough is maturing along the Front Range as the center low develops in Southeast Colorado and will trek across the Tri-State area this evening. There is still concern for gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon leading to locally critical fire weather concerns across the area. Relative humidity (RH) values across the area will likely fall into the low to mid teens. Temperatures have warmed up nicely so far today with some near-record highs remaining a possibility under the clear skies. Most of the area could see highs in the low 80s today with those west of the Colorado border possibly reaching the mid to upper 70s today.

Tonight into Tuesday morning, a cold front is expected to move south into the area as another sweeps along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. The colder air mass and moisture is expected to lag behind the cold front as it pushes south. Ahead of the cold front, the surface low is expected to move east over the area during the overnight to early morning hours. Current guidance is favoring the front moving in around 12Z for the northern portions of the area and slowly pushing across the Tri-State Area through the afternoon hours. So far, the 12Z NAM guidance continues to favor the development of fog over Red Willow County and possibly Hitchcock and Norton counties behind the cold front (~7 am to 11 am MT/8 am to 12 pm CT) as the low level moisture increases with the northerly winds. It's possible if the NAM solution pans out we could see some drizzle occur as well.

As the two low pressure systems move across the Great Plains, moisture from the south and some 500 mb vorticity will try to advect into the southeast to eastern portion of the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. The area should mostly see light rain with this. Depending on the timing of the front (i.e. slower solution) we could see potential for a few weak thunderstorms generally along and south of I-70 with any showers/storms generally moving northeast. Confidence is currently ~15% that we see any storms in the area with ~20% confidence in the precipitation actually occurring in the area as most CAMs are favoring and southern moisture to be south and east of the area or further north in Nebraska for the precipitation associated with the cold front. Winds will increase behind the cold front with gusts of 25-30 mph possible. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the mid 60s to upper 70s depending on how quick the front pushes in by the afternoon hours. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the mid 20s to the low 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Broad northwest flow will be in place over the CONUS through the period. It sharpens up a bit Sunday and Monday as the pattern amplifies and a ridge builds over the western CONUS and a trough digs into the eastern CONUS.

Fire weather will be the main concern Wednesday through Saturday. Each of those days will see afternoon relative humidity drop into the teens in a part of the area. Wednesday may be the most marginal day in terms of reaching the 15% threshold for critical conditions due to cooler post frontal temperatures. Wind speeds on Wednesday however do appear favorable with sustained winds around 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. Thursday will see better chances for humidity reaching 15% as temperatures warm into the 70s. There will be a surface trough in the area, with highest wind speeds north of the trough, generally north of Interstate 70. Westerly winds gusting up to 40 mph are currently forecast in that area with a period of low humidity. The question may come down to reaching 15% for at least 3 hours as it does take well into the afternoon before that happens. Friday will see the lowest humidity confined to western areas, mainly Colorado, with a shallow cold front resulting in slightly higher humidity further east. Winds speeds somewhat more marginal but may see some sporadic gusts to 25 mph or higher in Colorado. Finally, on Saturday relative humidity is forecast to be very low, single digits, as temperatures climb into the 70s and 80s. However, wind speeds are currently marginal at best with perhaps a stray gust to 25 mph currently forecast, mainly from Yuma County into southwest Nebraska. A cold front is expected to move through Saturday night, with cooler temperatures and a modest increase in humidity for Sunday and Monday, resulting in a temporary respite from fire weather concerns.

Precipitation chances will be confined to late in the period in the more amplified flow aloft and a cold frontal passage. Slight chances for rain and/or snow are forecast for Sunday and Monday. Precipitation, if it occurs at all, will be light with little, if any, impacts expected at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 517 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through tonight. Early Tuesday morning, a cold front will move through the KMCK shifting winds to the northeast. A brief period of MVFR or IFR ceilings and some slight reductions in visibility in fog may occur after the frontal passage through about 15z. The front is not expected to impact KGLD which will remain VFR through the entire period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast for today for most if not all of the area. Very low humidity values in the low teens to even upper single digits are forecast as well. The limiting factor to any fire weather concerns is the wind. Sustained winds around 15-20 mph are forecast although we could see an hour or two where wind gusts around 25 mph occur during the mid to late afternoon, similar to what occurred on Sunday. Some guidance is hinting at a stronger 850mb jet developing across Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, Sherman, Kit Carson and perhaps into western Thomas county which may be the favorite area for critical conditions with confidence around 80-90% that at least one will occur but confidence in 3 or more hours needed for the issuance of a Red Flag Warning is only around 20-30%. Another potential area that could an hour or two of critical conditions is up across northern portions of Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties where they are forecast to be in closer proximity to a bit of a stronger jet. The reason for not issuing a Red Flag Warning is due to the limited spatial coverage that these winds are forecast to see.

Tuesday, locally critical fire weather conditions are again forecast mainly across Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Greeley and Wallace counties. This will be dependent on how far east a warm front can survive as the rest of the area will be in wake of a wind shift during the morning before winds become more easterly. Even if the warm front can make it through the counties above winds are again the biggest question mark as gusts may only get to 25 mph. There is however a signal for high based showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon hours with perhaps a dry lightning potential along with gusty and erratic winds with any downburst. PWATS are forecast to be under 0.5 inches with an inverted v sounding. Any location that a storm could effect should remain under a tenth of an inch of rain. Overall potential for a wetting rain is around 20%.

Wednesday, is a tricky day when it comes to fire weather concerns. Cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s are currently forecast along with a very dry air mass with dew points in the low to mid teens advecting into the area. There is signal that temperatures could be warmer however in some guidance but am not buying it as I feel that cold air advection will still be ongoing for most if not all of the day in wake of a Tuesday night cold front. If temperatures were to warm into the mid 50s then critical fire weather conditions could occur across the area. Guidance has actually been trending a little cooler with the high temperatures for Wednesday so concern for critical conditions has gone down some. Will continue to monitor if the temperature trend does begin to rise again.

Irregardless with very dry 10 hour fuels around 10-12% according to the Kansas Mesonet the concern remains for fire starts and the potential for any fires to get out of control remains high.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy today March the 9th.

Goodland: Record high 83 in 1989.... current forecast 81.

McCook: Record high 85 in 1936.... current forecast 83.

Hill City: Record high 84 in 1989... current forecast 83.

Burlington: Record high 82 in 1989.... current forecast 79.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.