textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Slim chance of fog around sunrise this morning across the area.

- Breezy sustained winds of 15-25 mph forecast today and Tuesday.

- Dry conditions along with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast through the middle of the week.

- Signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions continues.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1218 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

For the remainder of the night weak moisture advection is forecast to occur. There may be a small window for some patchy fog or low stratus across eastern Colorado around sunrise along the edge of a weak surface low across eastern Colorado but confidence is lower in this occur than the previous nights as winds are forecast to be little stronger with sustained winds around 10 mph across the area. A small window of patchy fog may also be possible across eastern portions of the area due to low dew point depressions and radiational cooling and light winds but again confidence is very low in that occurring at this time as well as HREF and REFS 00Z data do not support the potential.Have nudged the forecast towards the 03Z SREF which is similar to what the NAM has been suggesting for the coverage of current developing mid level clouds so have added in patchy fog wording into the forecast.

Monday, slightly warmer temperatures are forecast as the high pressure system continues to amplify. High temperatures in the low 90s remain forecast as the higher dew points and southeasterly flow continues to help keep the area from warming further. Winds are trending a bit stronger due to a tightening pressure gradient a bit stronger of an 850mb jet in place. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast along with some sporadic gusts up to 30 mph in place as over the past similar days we have weaker 700mb winds aloft to limit the gust potential. Highs for the day appear to be slightly warmer as well as mid level high pressure is situated over the northern Plains and the majority of the CWA is on the southern periphery of the high. High temperatures are forecast in the low 90s. Am noticing a subtle theta e boundary during the afternoon hours roughly around the Highway 83 corridor where a rogue shower or storm may be able to develop and move slowly to the west. Confidence is only around 5% in anything developing but the 00Z NAM is suggesting that convective temperatures would be around 92 degrees which is very close to the current forecasted temperatures. Severe weather would be very unlikely but would need to watch for strong to severe downbursts with DCAPE of 1000-1300 j/kg. Any storms would be very short lived with the nebulous forcing and very weak shear preventing any movement and organization.

Monday night, a surface high across the Midwest slightly expands westward and a surface low across the Front Range is going to continue to pinch the forecast area in a tight pressure gradient through the night. A developing 30-40 knot 850mb jet is forecast to strengthen along and west of the Kansas/Colorado state line. Some subtle 1 hour pressure rises is also seen on the 00Z RAP and NAM which suggests to me that breezy winds around 15-20 mph are forecast along with gusts up to 30 mph through the night should the hourly pressure rises occur.

Tuesday, ridging and high pressure remains in place with very little change in the overall pattern. Winds also do appear to be very similar as well to Monday with sustained winds of 10-20 mph. High temperatures are also currently forecast to be similar as well with highs in the low 90s but could end up being a little bit lower if cloud cover can increase during the afternoon. As the day goes on a westward moving 500mb jet is forecast to move into the area putting the area in the left exit region of this jet, may need to keep an eye on some potential shower or storm development as this interacts with an 850mb jet during the evening hours but currently confidence is not high enough to introduce this into the forecast at this time.

Wednesday, a semi pattern change is forecast as low pressure across the southern Plains. This should help bring a slight reprieve to temperatures as highs in the mid to upper 80s are possible to occur. Will continue with the highs in the low 90s for this forecast package until confidence increases. Winds for the day appear to be weaker as guidance indicates the 850mb jet decreasing to around 10- 15 knots and the continued lack of any 700mb jets.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 113 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Thursday morning, an upper level high will be sitting across majority of the CONUS, pushing the jet into southern Canada. This will lead to largely calmer weather, although it looks to be hot and potentially humid. This pattern largely continues through the period, however over the weekend, a weak low looks to form over Texas and remain there until early next week. This could lead to some convective development over the weekend.

Any convection that occurs would likely be driven by 850 mb features. As it stands, south-southeasterly flow is expected Thursday through Friday evening. This will bring in some additional moisture into the CWA. Coupled with a low level cold front, we could see storms Friday or Saturday evening. After the cold front, the flow looks to be favor the southwest, which should dry out the CWA a little bit. Even though Friday and Saturday look to be the best days for convection, each day has a chance at weak convection from convective-T driven storms.

Temperatures for the long-term are pretty persistent. Highs look to warm into the 90s, potentially nearing 100 in the souther CWA. Overnight lows look to be in the low 60s in eastern Colorado and low to mid 70s in Graham and Norton counties.

Even with the potential for southwesterly winds to dry us out a bit more in the late weekend, there is still only a low chance for critical fire weather conditions. As it stands, RH values look to remain above 20%. However, daily gusts in the 20-35 kts range are currently forecast as we will be able to mix through most of the column, allowing some stronger winds to reach the surface. Additionally, any storms would have a moderately high potential of creating dry lightning, adding another risk to fire concerns.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period at this time. Some mid level clouds from decayed convection south of the area is moving across the forecast area. There is a signal for some additional low stratus around GLD around sunrise but currently the signal is lesser than the previous days so am opting to leave VFR conditions for now. Winds are forecast to becoming breezy being sustained between 15-20 knots from mid morning through the end of the period. Will need to keep an eye on for some sporadic gusts up to 30 knots during the afternoon however.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.