textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend through the weekend and into the start of the work week.

- Currently a chance of afternoon strong to potentially severe storms Saturday and Sunday.

- Tuesday there will be a signal for strong sustained winds up to 45 mph for the three colorado counties.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Broad mid level troughing is in place across the region. Slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday are forecast with highs in the low to mid 70s. A narrow area of a tighter pressure gradient has developed in between a surface high to the east and developing low to the west. Wind gusts around 25-30 mph are forecast for a brief time as this pressure gradient slowly moves to the east through the day. Low level water vapor imagery as of 16Z indicates a couple of disturbance upstream across the eastern Wyoming and possibly another across the Rockies in Colorado. These are forecast to be the focus for some shower and storm develop across mainly northern portions of the area this afternoon. The potential for this development does look a bit better than what was being seen 24 hours ago so have increased pops into the 30-40% range. Severe storms are possible with large hail around ping pong ball size being the primary hazard. MUCAPE is on the weaker side around 1000 j/kg but think the steeper lapse rates should be sufficient enough to overcome the weaker MUCAPE. Wind shear is plenty so any longer lived storm would have the potential for the hail around ping pong ball size. Damaging winds are possible as well with inverted v soundings and fast storm motions around 60- 70 knots but the stronger wind shear in place may be the limiting factor for wind to be a bigger issue. Wind gusts up to 60 mph seem to be the most likely outcome for wind. The limiting factor it seems for a better wind threat despite the inverted v soundings is that the mixing layer LCL height is lower than the freezing level which limits the magnitude of the wind that could be mixed down. That does change some around 00Z however along I70 across NW Kansas so if storms are still ongoing then then the wind threat may need to be monitored a bit more. The landspout threat that was mentioned yesterday has become less likely as guidance has really backed off of the boundary developing across eastern Colorado. Showers and storms are forecast to develop around 3pm MT with the potential for severe weather continuing through 7pm MT.

Overnight additional showers and very isolated storms may develop with some weak isentropic ascent in the 300K level as southeasterly upslope flow continues as 850mb moisture advection occurs. Confidence isn't the overall highest in this occurring at this time with only 10-15% confidence as of this forecast package. Overnight low temperatures are currently forecast to fall into the mid 40s to low 50s. Winds may increase some however as low level jet develops and decouples the atmosphere some with some pressure falls occurring with a surface trough moving in to help mix down some the low level jet winds. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are currently forecast but some localized gusts around 40 mph can't be ruled out across Dundy, Cheyenne (KS) and Rawlins county as the trough moves in.

Sunday, the positioning of the surface trough from tonight will highly dictate wind and the threat of storms for the afternoon. Ensembles suggest a slower progressing trough similar to the NAM so have tailored rain chances similar to the NAM for this package. This would support the threat of showers and storms affecting more of the area with storms forecast to start developing along a line from roughly Trenton, Nebraska to Cheyenne Wells, Colorado. Initiation for this may be a bit earlier as early as 1pm MT. Severe weather may again be possible but isn't as strong of a signal as today. Hail up to half dollar size and wind gusts again of 50-60 mph. MUCAPE is forecast to be higher than today with 1500-2000 j/kg but wind shear only around 15-25 knots suggests that storms may struggle to maintain themselves for a longer period of time and collapse quickly and potentially be pulsey as well. A combination of wet and dry severe downbursts and microbursts may be possible with DCAPE in excess of 1000 j/kg, weaker effective bulk wind difference along with the 0-3km lapse rate grater than the dry adiabatic. Similar to today the ML LCL is lower than the freezing layer which impacts my confidence in the intensity. Should any severe wind occur in the form of severe downbursts or microbursts then localized dust storms may be possible as well.

Warm temperatures are forecast to be in place with highs in the mid 80s to even some low 90s not out of the realm of existence. Much drier are remains forecast across Yuma and Kit Carson counties with NAM mixing dew points suggesting dew points fall into the mid to upper 20s which with temperatures in the mid 80s would result in humidity falling into the low to mid teens. With good agreement with guidance the trough should be on past these counties my concern for fire weather conditions is very low less than 10%.

Monday, the start of an even more active looks to begin with troughing across western CONUS and high pressure sets up across the Atlantic. The reason why the Atlantic is being mentioned for High Plains weather is that southeasterly winds are forecast to persist and begin advecting in more moist air into the area. With the troughing and more moist air pushing the signal for more potential for showers and storms looks to continue on Monday.Guidance indicates a stationary boundary may be in place across the area which would be the focus for rainfall. Guidance also indicates that high CAPE and very low shear may be in place across the CWA which suggests to me that showers and storms will occur with some severe threat but may not sustain themselves very long but outflows from said storms would lead to more storm development. Warm temperatures are again forecast with highs in the 80s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 151 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Looking at the upper air pattern, there is a ridge that is set up over the area and will bring warmer temperatures and increased moisture. Starting with Tuesday, the high temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s, along with lows in the 50s. As for storm potential there is about 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE that could support thunderstorm development. The NBM guidance does show there being about a 20-40% chance of seeing more than 0.01".

Sustained winds do show a sign of concern for Tuesday, with having high winds for the the Colorado counties. The sustained winds look to remain out of the south and may reach up to 45 mph. Interestingly enough there is support from the EFI, showing the abnormal sustained wind speeds. The peak wind gusts will occur in the late morning to early afternoon. Currently, there is a 5-10% that we exceed 55 mph for wind gusts. Guidance is suggesting that the main driver behind the increase in sustained winds being so strong, is likely due to a 850 mb low level jet. There is so me concerns for blowing dust, however the confidence level is very low (5%). Guidance is showing, lapse rates that are either a tad bit to high for the 2-2.5 C/km or the 0.5-1 C/km are to low. The other thing to look at is soil moisture, especially if precipation does occur this weekend, as of right now the moisture is above 50%.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper pattern has some uncertainty with how this trough evolves and moves through the region. There is some models that suggest the it will deepen and move slower compared to the other side where it will cut off and move though quicker.

For the high temperatures for Wednesday, cool down to mid 70s and low 80s. The lows remain in the 50s. As for winds, they transition to come from the southeast. Wind gusts may reach up to 35 mph. Moving to precipitation and storm chances, there is a 30-50% chance of exceeding 0.1" for 24 hours. As for storm potential, there is CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range which would be sufficient for storm development. Thursday and Friday look to be very similar to Wednesday with highs in the high 70s and low 80s. Along with winds from the southeast. The wind gusts do remain lower than the previous days in the range of 15-25 mph. As for precip/storm chance are pretty much the same as Wednesday with CAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range.

There is a small threat for flooding during this three day period. The main concern is that there could be a convergence zone over Kansas. This will likely bring moisture from the south. Given the present CAPE for each day storms/showers will likely be present. Guidance is also showing that the PWATs for the storm environment around 0.9" with higher values to the east where they could reach 1.3". One other thing to mention is the vertical shear is very low. If this scenario pans out then flooding could be concern.

One final note for this three day period forecast, as mentioned before, there is some uncertainty with the movement of the system. That ultimately will affect the CWA's storm/showers and flooding potential. As we move closer to the event, more information will be available to investigate further.

Saturday's forecast does depend on what happens during the week. Currently, the highs look to be low 80s and lows in 50s. Winds do shift back to coming from the southeast and gusts remain in the 15-25 mph range. There is the standard CAPE range as days prior so there could be showers and or storms present, but this a week out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Breezy southerly winds gusting up to 25 knots are forecast for this afternoon. Focus then turns to shower and storm potential. Confidence is highest at MCK for at least vicinity thunder around terminal with a 20-30% chance of actually impacting the terminal. GLD is a bit more iffy with confidence of impacts around 10-20%. Should a storm impact either terminal then at least IFR visibilities could occur along with strong winds and potentially evening hail. This threat is forecast to continue through around 01Z. A low level jet this evening is forecast to develop and last through the night with LLWS forecast for each terminal. A 10% chance of more showers developing around MCK is in the realm of possibility but will leave that mention out of the TAF for now due to lower confidence.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.