textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures will persist.

- Storms are forecast late this afternoon and through the evening with wind gusts up to 75 mph possible. Some instances of hail around golf ball size are possible with any discrete storms.

- Severe storms are again possible Thursday afternoon. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary threat. A large to very large hail threat may materialize if initial storms can remain discrete for a prolonged amount of time.

- Multiple hours of fire weather may be possible Friday across eastern Colorado.

- A few afternoon and evening storms possible on Independence Day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A surface low is slowing moving to the east across the area. On the back end of the low some drier air is forecast to move in across eastern Colorado and move into NW Kansas as a dryline. A 2nd boundary is forecast to develop along the eastern side of the low and may be the focus for some storm attempts this afternoon east of Highway 25. A brief landspout may be possible with steep lapse rates and unstable conditions at the surface but the lack of strong surface convergence should limit any prolonged landspout concerns. A cap is seen in soundings around 700mb which should overall inhibit storm chances during the afternoon but with high temperatures forecasted very close to the convective temperatures, I can't rule out a storm breaking the afternoon cap. If this were to occur then hail around 2 inches would be the primary threat along with damaging winds. Confidence in this is currently around 10-20%.

A shortwave within southwesterly flow is forecast to move into the area during the late afternoon into the early evening hours. This is forecast to be the areas greatest threat for storms for the day. Damaging wind gusts around 70 mph currently looks to be the main threat in the form of wet microbursts. There is some signal that brief periods of cold pool driven wind could occur as well but the signal for cold pools is not as strong as it was for yesterdays severe event. The main severe threat with this is forecast to start as early as 4pm MT and last through around 10pm MT. A 700mb jet is forecast to develop around 03Z and last through the night which may aid in some new development or some back building of the already ongoing storms but currently think any severe threat with this wave should be relatively low as guidance does indicate some drier air in the mixing level.

Thursday, southwesterly mid level flow is forecast to continue similar to the previous days but with a slight eastward progression which is forecast to lead to warmer temperatures than today with highs in the low 90s across Yuma county to the upper 90s across NW Kansas. A dry line is forecast to set up across eastern Colorado during the afternoon which is again forecast to be the initiation source for storms during the afternoon and into the evening along with a developing low across eastern Colorado. Initial storms starting around 3pm MT are forecast to be supercells with hail up to tennis balls with 40 knot shear and MUCAPE of 3500-4000 j/kg and steep lapse rates up to 9.0c/km. Another embedded shortwave is forecast to move into the area during the late afternoon hours and should provide more lift to end the supercell threat and merge cells into a cluster as moves to the east-northeast with an increasing 700mb jet driving it. Storms are forecast to be out of the area by 11pm CT.

Friday, similar pattern to Thursday but with even further east progression. This is forecast to lead to even warmer temperatures across the area in the mid 90s to low 100s. Overall good agreement within guidance that the dry line from the previous day will continue to move to the east. Very dry conditions are forecast to occur behind the dryline due to mixing up to 15,000 feet AGL which based on current guidance would support wind gust potential to 30 mph. NAM surface to 30mb AGL dew points suggest even drier air than forecast being in place across Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado. Per discussions with fuels partners across eastern Colorado fuels have begun to cure again leading to a risk for critical fire weather conditions. Am opting to hold off on a Fire Weather Watch at least for one more run of guidance to ensure that this signal still remains in place and the duration of the conditions doesn't decrease. A few storms are possible again during the late afternoon and early evening hours Friday as another shortwave is currently forecast to clip the area. Due to this the forcing is a bit weaker but widely scattered storms are possible across the area with damaging winds again the main threat.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The upper pattern has a shortwave trough moving through the area Saturday and exiting the area beginning Sunday. Then a ridge begins to move in and begins to slow down over the majority of the the Great Plains. There are some signs of there being some embedded shortwaves that will move through the area throughout the week.

Starting with July 4th, Saturday looks to have high temperatures in the low to high 90s. With the shortwave trough overhead there is what looks to be an associated surface low and a cold front that will move in from the north and head south during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the Fire Weather concerns for prior days, the Relative Humidity (RH) values on Saturday do look to higher in the 20-50%. The gusts the be in the 25-35 kt range. There is a small concern for storms given we have the cold front moving through as our lifting mechanism. Both the NBM and LREF have at least 1500 J/kg for SFC-CAPE. Guidance is also suggesting that there would be around 30-50 kts of SFC-500mb shear. Looking at NCAR AI Convective Hazards Forecast multiple members are showing signs of potential of these storms being severe. However, there is some uncertainty with the exactly location of this surface low and the timing of the cold front.

Sunday though Wednesday does look to be fairly similar with the ridge still staying off to the north and a few embedded shortwaves moving through the area. High temperatures look to remain in the high 80s to high 90s. RH values look to remain above 20% for the majority of the CWA. The winds look to mainly stay to the south/southeast of the majority of the period. Looking at SFC-CAPE each day has around 1500 J/kg. The SFC-500mb shear is around 20-40 kts. One thing to note for the potential of severe weather is 5-15% for there to be convective hazards.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period for KGLD and KMCK. Moderate confidence in showers and thunderstorms in the evening that could reduce visibilities and result in erratic winds.

For KGLD, winds will initially be easterly then shift to more southeasterly by 3Z. Winds will be light until around 10Z when they increase to around 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots possible. There is around a 10% chance of low stratus Thursday morning.

For KMCK, winds will be light and variable until around 3Z when they shift to more southeasterly. Speeds will be around 15 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.