textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to moderate confidence in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening with hail being the main threat.

- Moderate confidence in severe potential Thursday afternoon and evening with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats.

- Moderate confidence in active weather continuing into next week, although, the severe potential is uncertain at this time.

- Moderate confidence in warm temperatures generally through Monday, with cooler temperatures on Friday and next Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 147 PM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Active weather is expected through the short term with the potential for rain and thunderstorms. As the front continues to slide southeastward across the region this afternoon, some light showers and thunderstorms may develop. At this time, current satellite shows some indication of some growing cumulus across portions of the eastern forecast area with radar imagery showing some light precipitation already developing. At this time, confidence remains low in any severe thunderstorm development as there is limited moisture along and behind this front and the best instability remains off to the east and southeast. However, there still may be some stronger to briefly severe storms that develop this evening and clip the southeastern counties (Graham, Sheridan, Gove). Strong winds with gusts up to 55 mph and hail up to 1 inch may be possible in these storms tonight.

A better potential for severe storms arrives tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening. A warm front will push across portions of Kansas and southeast Nebraska, helping to trigger thunderstorm development along it. With plenty of moisture and sufficient instability (CAPE values at least 1000 J/kg, steep low level lapse rates, and wind shear over 45 knots), severe storms are possible across this region by early to mid afternoon. Storm development will propagate to the south and west before moving off to the east/southeast through the evening. Any thunderstorm development will begin as discrete supercells with the potential to produce damaging wind gusts up to 60 to 65 mph and very large hail up to at least 1.5 inches. Storms will congeal throughout the evening becoming less discrete. Some brief heavy rain may be possible, but widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time as overall QPF with these storms will be less than a tenth (0.1 inches through 12Z Friday) and storms move quickly off to the east throughout the evening. The majority of the severe potential will come to an end by 06Z, however, some lingering showers with embedded thunderstorms will be possible through the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 147 PM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Behind the departing cold front, lingering showers as well as cooler temperatures are expected. Cool air advection into the region behind the front will usher in 850mb temperatures in the 7 to 12C range on Friday. This cooler airmass combined with cloudy conditions and lingering rain showers will keep temperatures on the cooler side of guidance on Friday. Currently expecting highs to only rise into the mid to upper 50s across the entire region.

This cooler air will be short-lived, though, as a return to warmer temperatures arrives for the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Highs will rise back into the mid 70s to low 80s through Monday. Lows will also remain mild in the mid to upper 40s through Sunday night and potentially into the low 50s on Saturday night.

Another round of rain and thunderstorms are expected on Friday night and into Saturday and again on Saturday night and into Sunday morning. At this time, severe potential remains uncertain, but some weak instability across the region could result in some stronger storms capable of brief gusty winds as well as some sub-severe hail. Even so, at this time the best environment for severe storms will remain just to the south and east with much of the GLD area remaining on the fringe. Despite several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday morning, QPF will remain limited across the region. Not expecting much more than a quarter of an inch of precipitation.

Drier conditions returns for the end of the weekend and into Monday with only some limited, low PoPs (less than 25 percent) across portions of the northern forecast area on Sunday and into Monday. Better precipitation chances arrives by Monday night with another potential for thunderstorms on Tuesday. Once again the severe potential remains uncertain, however, it is certain that rain and cloud cover will keep temperatures cool once again on Tuesday with highs only rising into the mid 50s in the north to the mid 60s in the south and east.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 505 PM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Winds will weaken over the next couple of hours, and generally remain under 10 kts for the period. Light showers may move through the region over the next 18 hours, and low level icing may become an issue around sunrise. Storms may impact both terminals tomorrow afternoon/evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.