textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms forecast to develop along the CO Front Range late this afternoon will track east toward the KS border this evening. A few storms capable of producing small hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible, mainly in eastern CO between 7-11 PM MDT.

- Another chance for storms Sunday night with a low risk for damaging winds.

- Severe chances likely return for early next week under northwest flow.

- Above normal temperatures through at least mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Upper ridge over the Texas Panhandle today will gradually migrate westward to the Four Corners by Tuesday night. This position will keep the Central Plains under zonal to northwesterly flow through the period with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Today and Sunday, with the ridge to the south and a zonal flow coming out of Colorado, convection originating over the mountains and Front Range will move east and reach the area during the evening hours. Storms will likely be weakening as they do so with the rapid decrease in instability near sunset. Nonetheless, they may still pose a marginal severe wind risk even in the decaying stages. Rainfall amounts look to be light, less than a quarter of an inch both nights.

Monday and Tuesday, will be transitioning back to northwest flow with a corresponding increase in deep layer shear. This will result in better organized updrafts and a severe risk both days for wind and hail. On Monday the primary storm initiation area will be southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. The mean flow around the ridge will take them east then southeast with time, which will place areas generally north of Interstate 70 in the most favorable region for severe storms. On Tuesday, storms will be initiating further south in northeast Colorado in the afternoon, then moving east to southeast through the evening. The severe risk will extend into most if not all of the area.

Temperature trends for the period will be above normal all days with highs well into the 90s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the upper 80s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Synoptically, a ridge is forecast to be over the SW CONUS and currently looks to remain relatively stationary. Throughout the week, there appears to be a few shortwaves moving though the CWA, which may bring higher precipitation chances.

High temperatures for the week are forecast to be in the 90s for the majority of the area. The "coolest" day for the period looks to be Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, whereas Friday looks to be the hottest with highs in the mid 90s. If the ridge begins to amplify or move eastward, as guidance hints, higher temperatures could be seen. Winds throughout the week are forecast to be calm to breezy, and relative humidity values are expected to be higher than 30%, which should help minimize fire weather concerns.

Precipitation chances are present during the week. As some shortwaves move around the high, they will likely to be our main precipitation producers. The day currently with the highest precipitation chances is Tuesday. Guidance hints at some vorticity associated with the shortwave as it moves through Tuesday afternoon. Both CAPE and shear appear sufficient for severe storms; however, some guidance indicates a mismatch between higher/lower CAPE and lower/higher shear, which could lead to less organized storms. Looking at qpf, some guidance shows the possibility of heavy rainfall with these storms, which is something to keep in mind as we get closer to Tuesday. The rest of the week there is roughly a 15-30% chance of PoPs as various shortwaves move through the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the afternoon with mostly clear skies and light winds. Tonight, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move out of Colorado late this evening and overnight. There is around a 30% probability of impacting KGLD with brief gusty winds and visibility reductions due to rain.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.