textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the end of the Christmas week.

- Near record to record highs also possible Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1222 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Today, zonal flow will dominate the upper levels as a weak, unorganized airmass sits over the area in the low-levels. This will lead to pretty light winds at the surface and mostly clear skies, allowing us to heat up very quickly. Temperatures today look to warm into the 70s. Locations along and south of U.S. 40 and west of U.S. 83 will warm into the upper 70s, with isolated 80s being possible. These high temperatures will likely set some records. More information about the potential records can be found below in the Climate section. RH values are expected to drop into the mid teens for eastern Colorado, but the weak winds will prevent any concerns for fire weather.

Tonight, temperatures will cool into the low to mid 30s. Light westerly winds are forecast to keep the central (east/west oriented) 70% of the CWA above freezing. If the winds go calm for an hour, temperatures will likely drop below freezing. There is a 5% chance of some patchy fog over the northeastern CWA Tuesday morning with an approaching high.

Tomorrow, around sunrise, an 850 mb high will descend over Nebraska, leading to some CAA from the northeast. This will keep temperatures capped in the 60s, which is still much warmer than average. Overnight tomorrow, as the low moves off to the southeast, it will provide some southerly flow. Temperatures Tuesday night will be similar to tonight's, most of the area will be in the mid 30s, but the far northern CWA will likely cool to around 30.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1256 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Starting the extended period Wednesday, high pressure across the southeast expands northward leading to warm temperatures for mid/late December standards for the area. High temperatures continue to remain forecast in the mid 60s-low 70s. A surface low looks to be in place across southeast Colorado which will lead to westerly winds across the southern portion of the area and variable winds across the north. Could see some slightly higher temperatures than currently forecast across the southern portion of the area due to this. Due to the proximity and more broad nature of the low and the further northward expansion of the high pressure overall concern for fire weather continues to lower despite the warm temperatures and low humidity in the mid to upper teens. Still can't rule out some brief,isolated pockets of wind gusts of 25 mph mainly along and south of Highway 40 due to diurnal mixing. But with very shallow mixing heights up to 1500 feet think any of those gusts would be few and far between.

Another warm day is forecast for Christmas Day. A classic, almost summer like pattern, will be in place with the high pressure across the southern CONUS and a developing trough across the western CONUS. Ensemble members are in good agreement with the deamplification of the ridge across the southern CONUS which should help for more of the WSW "furnace" wind influence on the area resulting in highs in the mid to potentially upper 70s. There is a 5-10% chance of elevated fire weather currently on Christmas. Have some concerns that current forecast RH may be to high as the GFS is a bit more bullish on moisture advection from the west with the trough as I have a hard time believing that that much moisture can survive over the Rockies. ECWMF still shows the moisture advection but is lesser on the amounts. If the moisture advection does not occur then RH may have the potential to fall into the mid teens resulting in critical fire weather but think that scenario currently is around 1% chance of happening. Breezy winds gusting 30-40 mph are forecast to develop as a weak cold front moves through the area that will shift winds to the northwest.

Friday in wake of the front will be a little "cooler" albeit still well above normal with highs in the 60s. Winds currently do not appear to be as strong as pressure gradients wane but still could some rogue gusts around 25 mph during the afternoon. The mild temperatures are forecast to continue at least into Saturday. I could see the high temperatures on Saturday increasing as most ensemble guidance shows relatively the same pattern continuing. I think the main driver for the currently cooler temperatures is coming from the GFS which moves through a cold front quicker. Am leaning more towards a Sunday morning frontal passage currently based on the current ECMWF-AIFS and GEFS ensemble members supporting this. The front has the potential to be modest which would let temperatures fall back down closer to normal.

Currently any precipitation chances through this period looks unlikely but a potentially more active pattern may start to ensue for the very latter portions (Sunday night/Monday morning)into next week as a deeper trough may develop. Spaghetti models still are all over the place on the timing, location, evolution of this system however any specifics are murky at best at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 350 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period for both KGLD and KMCK. Winds throughout the day will favor a southwesterly direction before favoring a northwesterly flow around 6Z.

Temperatures will be pretty warm today, so density altitudes will be higher than normal for late December. Overall a good day for the reindeer to get in some hours before the big day.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1206 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

A prolonged stretch of well above normal temperatures are forecast this week for the entire area. For reference the area normal high temperature for this week is around 40 degrees. Some places may also approach monthly record highs for the month of December this week. Confidence is increasing in record highs falling this week along with a 10-20% chance of the monthly record highs falling for at least one location.

Monthly (December) Record Highs:

Goodland: 83 in 1964 McCook: 81 in 1964 Burlington: 81 in 1939 Hill City: 83 in 1964

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy Monday the 22nd Goodland: Record high 73 in 2024.... current forecast 76.

McCook: Record high 73 in 2024.... current forecast 71.

Hill City: Record high 69 in 2019... current forecast 72.

Burlington: Record high 71 in 2019.... current forecast 75.

Record high temperatures also possible Wednesday the 24th Goodland: Record high 77 in 1955.... current forecast 71.

McCook: Record high 74 in 1964.... current forecast 65.

Hill City: Record high 67 in 2021... current forecast 67.

Burlington: Record high 79 in 1955.... current forecast 71.

Record warmest low temperatures Christmas Eve

Goodland: Record of 32 in 1940.

McCook: Record of 33 in 2024.

Hill City: Record of 34 in 1940.

Burlington: Record of 37 in 1971.

Record high temperatures also possible Christmas Day Goodland: Record high 74 in 1950.... current forecast 73.

McCook: Record high 70 in 1929.... current forecast 68.

Hill City: Record high 76 in 1950... current forecast 73.

Burlington: Record high 67 in 1929.... current forecast 71.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.