textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect Wednesday afternoon for Yuma, Dundy, and Hitchcock counties. Dry conditions and wind gusts up to 30 mph will lead to increased fire danger.

- Hot temperatures possible late week into the early weekend. Daily record highs and even monthly record highs may be possible.

- Strong cold front will bring an end to very warm temperatures over the weekend. Strong winds and blowing dust may accompany this front.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1253 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the Great Basin with Northwest flow over the Plains. Within the flow was extensive cloud cover. The forecast area was on the southern side of the cloud cover. At the surface a boundary was moving east through the forecast area. Behind the boundary winds turned to the northwest and became breezy, and dew points increased. Due to the relative humidity increasing behind the boundary am not anticipating the current warning to meet official criteria. However, the breezy conditions will still encourage rapid fire growth so will keep the warning going.

Wednesday will be warmer as WAA continues. With the WNW winds, am thinking highs will be a few degrees warmer than what is currently forecast. Probabilities favor highs in the low 80s. The unseasonably warm temperatures will lead to relative humidity values falling to less than 15% for the west half of the forecast area. Looking into the wind potential, breezy winds continue to be forecast for East Central CO. However, probabilities for wind gusts over 25 MPH indicate winds will only be above 25 MPH for three hours, and only for Yuma County; to the east and south probabilities will be under 25% for wind gusts over 25 MPH. Based on events in the past, events that had criteria for only three hours did not verify well. Model sounding at Wray, CO shows very similar trend for duration of the wind gusts. As such, confidence is not high enough to upgrade the watch at this time.

Thursday will be a repeat of Wednesday. With the WNW winds am thinking the highs will be three or so degrees warmer than currently forecast. Winds will be lighter as the surface high moves through the forecast area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Unseasonably warm weather continues as the ridge builds east toward the Plains. Continue to think highs for Friday are a few degrees cooler than what will happen based on the NW winds.

GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members mostly have the strong cold front moving through either Saturday night or early Sunday morning. However about five of the ECMWF ensembles do have the cold front moving through Saturday afternoon. If that happens, there will be a wall of dust with the cold front. This would be the ideal setup for a wall of dust, record to near record highs ahead of a strong cold front with wind gusts 40-50 MPH.

Behind the front highs will be cooler through the rest of the forecast as a long wave trough moves over the CONUS. Dew points move back north into the forecast area Tuesday as an upper level short wave trough moves through. This could be a favorable setup for severe weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected with ceilings currently above 10000ft and skies forecast to clear. Winds near the surface should remain roughly from the west/southwest around 10 kts through the day. There could be a few gusts around 20-25 kts between 18-00Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 227 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A strong signal for very warm to hot temperatures is present for later in the week and into the start of the weekend. Some daily record highs and even monthly March record highs are in jeopardy of falling during this period.

Record high temperatures Friday March 20th

Goodland: Record high 90 in 1907.... current forecast 86.

McCook: Record high 85 in 1916 and 1997.... current forecast 86.

Hill City: Record high 88 in 1916... current forecast 87.

Burlington: Record high 87 in 1907.... current forecast 86. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy Saturday March 21st

Goodland: Record high 84 in 1907 and 2011.... current forecast 88.

McCook: Record high 89 in 1910.... current forecast 91.

Hill City: Record high 93 in 1907... current forecast 91.

Burlington: Record high 84 in 2011.... current forecast 88. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Monthly (March) Record Highs:

Goodland: 90 degrees March 20th, 1907

McCook: 93 degrees March 16th, 2015

Burlington: 93 degrees March 19th, 1921

Hill City: 94 degrees March 16th, 2015

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ252. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Wednesday for NEZ079-080.