textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist until a cold frontal passage Monday evening.

- Cooler temperatures, pervasive cloud cover and periods of rain will follow, in the wake of the front, Monday night through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

A waxing/waning ridge over the central-southern Rockies and adjoining High Plains will foster dry conditions and above normal temperatures into Monday. An abrupt pattern transition will follow, in the wake of a cold frontal passage, late Mon-Mon night,

Today: No appreciable fire weather concerns. Expect a continued warming trend with highs in the mid 70's to lower 80's and minimum relative humidity readings around 15-20%. Light (10-15 mph) N to NE winds will preclude critical fire weather conditions.

Monday: No appreciable fire weather concerns. Expect conditions similar to today, with highs in the mid 70's to lower 80's and minimum relative humidity readings around 15-20%. Very light (5-10 mph) northwesterly or variable winds will prevail through the majority of the day. Winds will abruptly shift to the NNE or NE and increase to ~20-25 mph w/gusts to 35 mph during the late afternoon and evening as a cold front progresses southward through the region. Current model guidance suggests that the frontal passage will occur around 4-5 pm MDT (~22-23Z) in northern portions of the area (CO-KS-NE border) and ~5-8 pm MDT (~23-02Z) along/south of I-70. An influx of low-level moisture with the front will rapidly send relative humidity readings above 50%. Marginal high-based instability (~100-500 J/kg MUCAPE) could potentially support high-based showers during the late afternoon. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current (06Z 05/03) and recent runs of the HRRR do not indicate any convective development in the Goodland CWA during the afternoon and early evening. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current (06Z 05/03) and recent runs of the NAM NEST continue to suggest that weak low-level convergence within a broad lee trough over western KS will assist in scattered convective development during the early-mid afternoon, as early as 2 pm MDT (20Z), though.. this scenario is predicated on morning dewpoints in the 30's and 40's persisting into the afternoon.. on a warm day with deep vertical mixing.. well before and well south-of the approaching front.. which seems unrealistic, given the pattern. For comparison, the HRRR indicates surface dewpoints falling into the teens and lower-mid 20's during the afternoon, prior to the frontal passage.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 306 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

***Synopsis***

Monday morning, a trough looks to exist across the Southwestern United States as part of a split flow upper-level pattern across the West Coast. At the same time, another shortwave trough looks to dig into the United States from Canada. As a consequence of this upper- level pattern, a surface high pressure system looks to move south- southeastward into the Northern High Plains, allowing a moderate to strong cold front to sweep through the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours Monday. Ensemble guidance is consistent on troughing remaining overhead through at least Wednesday afternoon, and possibly into the overnight hours. A split flow upper-level pattern looks to reestablish itself over the West Coast by Thursday morning, with northwesterly flow across the forecast region. This pattern is favored to persist through the end of the period. Several shortwave features may also impact the region during this time.

***Monday***

Downsloping southwesterly to westerly surface flow is favored ahead of Monday's cold front. As such, conditions Monday afternoon look to be warm and dry. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid- 70s to mid-80s, with relative humidity (RH) values in the mid to upper-teens. Despite these low RH values, critical fire weather concerns for Monday are currently marginal at best. The greatest chances to see critical fire weather conditions exist across portions of Eastern Colorado, where forecast wind gusts are in the 25-30 mph range. NBM guidance shows as high as a 2 in 3 chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for the hazard across portions of Western Yuma and Northern Kit Carson Counties in Colorado, but less than a 1 in 3 chance that they are higher than 30 mph. Even so, the best chances for RH to meet criteria for critical fire weather lies across Western Cheyenne County in Colorado, with as high as a 50% chance according to LREF guidance. Considering that these zones are not collocated, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Monday afternoon rests at around 5% or less.

Precipitation may be experienced along the incoming cold front as well. Some of this activity may be convective in nature, as LREF guidance suggests most locations in the CWA have a 75% chance or better for CAPE (instability) to be present. However, the same guidance suggests this instability to be fairly marginal, as the entire forecast region has less than a 1 in 3 chance to experience greater than 200 J/kg of CAPE. As such, light precipitation seems to be the most likely outcome, with some locally stronger showers possible. All locations across the CWA have less than a 15% chance of seeing greater than 0.1 inches of rain from this activity.

***Tuesday/Wednesday***

With troughing overhead Tuesday and Wednesday, cooler conditions appear likely. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid- 40s to mid-50s both days, with even 90th percentile high temperatures from the NBM in the lower-60s. A slow-moving surface low pressure moving across the Rockies is favored to establish a zone of convergence across much of Kansas as well, which would allow precipitation to occur both days. LREF guidance shows less than a 30% chance both days for greater than 50 J/kg of CAPE, which would indicate that this activity is unlikely to be convective. It seems more likely that this precipitation will be driven by the synoptic lift from the convergence zone across Kansas. While forecast guidance does suggest small chances for showers and thunderstorms, light rain seems more likely from this setup. Additionally, as temperatures cool overnight Tuesday, some precipitation may begin to fall as snow across portions of Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday night may drop into the mid to upper-20s across this zone, which may indicate the need for a Freeze Watch or Freeze Warning if the cooler trend continues.

***Thursday-Saturday***

As northwesterly flow aloft establishes itself overhead with a split flow to the west, warmer conditions are forecast to return. Highs currently look to be in the low to mid-70s Thursday, and mid-70s to low-80s Friday and Saturday. While forecast guidance shows minimal chances for precipitation during this period, several shortwave troughs embedded in the northwesterly flow could allow a few slight chances for showers. NBM guidance suggests that there is less than a 10% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain from this activity. However, LREF guidance does suggest that a reasonable maximum of 500 J/kg of CAPE is possible, which could produce localized showers with slightly higher amounts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 511 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR aviation conditions are expected through tonight with no precipitation and clear to mostly clear skies. Winds remain near or under 10 knots but will shift but will gradually shift to the northeast throughout today. This shift will occur by mid to late morning at KMCK and not until mid-afternoon at KGLD. Some increasing clouds are expected at KMCK by the evening as well, but ceilings will remain well above 10 kft.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.