textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild today with chances for showers and storms this afternoon through the overnight hours. A storm or two may be severe with wind gusts of 60 mph possible.

- Precipitation chances continue into the weekend along with small chances for severe weather.

- Next week continues the precipitation chances. Low temperatures near or below freezing may also occur.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Storms will initiate later this afternoon along a frontal boundary that is located along and south of the Kansas and Nebraska border area. CAMs in fairly good agreement that this will occur well east of the forecast area and storm motions will take them away from the area. Main focus instead will be on high-based scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that will move out of northeast Colorado and into northwest Kansas this evening. These will pose a minimal severe risk, though cannot discount a rogue 60 mph gust with inverted-v soundings and DCAPE up to 1200 j/kg. Best coverage will be south of Interstate 70 through about mid evening, with more widely scattered coverage further north. This activity will gradually wind down through the overnight, with a decreasing wind threat. Low clouds will develop towards 12z behind a back-door cold front and northeasterly winds. Not expecting much in the way of fog other than perhaps a narrow band along the leading edge of the front in Colorado between 10-14z which may result in some local visibility reductions to less than a mile in western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The low clouds will persist through Friday morning, with perhaps some drizzle and light rain showers as well, followed by an erosion on the western edge during the afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will be highly dependent on where that western edge ends up. More or less followed the HRRR which shows it as far east as Highway 27 by 21-23Z. East of there, temperatures will likely be limited to the 40s for highs, where model output shows the median in the upper 40s while the means are even lower in the lower 40s. NBM is likely too warm. Further west in Colorado, temperatures should make it into the 50s, but even as the low clouds erode will still see considerable high cloudiness. While there will be a chance for scattered light rain showers through the day with a persistent southwest flow aloft, not expecting any thunderstorms given the cool, stable conditions.

Friday night, the low clouds will surge westward again. Shower chances will be increasing with another wave in the southwest flow aloft. Surface will be cut off from convection, but there is an increase in MUCAPE through the evening and may see a few elevated thunderstorms develop, mainly in eastern areas, and continue through the overnight. MUCAPE peaks at around 1000-1500 j/kg in the evening before diminishing, so there will be low risk (less than 20%) of small hail east of Highway 25 through about 06z. Models also suggesting that fog will develop after about 09z, possibly dense, and persist through early Saturday morning. Soundings show the moisture may be deep enough in eastern areas for drizzle/intermittent light rain as well.

After the fog and drizzle end in the morning and assuming we can get at least some surface heating, will see a rapid increase in surface instability Saturday afternoon as breezy south winds advect deeper moisture into the area. Appears to be another weak wave in the southwest flow aloft which will be enough for widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. NBM mean CAPE values range from 500 j/kg in Colorado to up to 1500 j/kg in Norton and Hill City by 21z. 0-6 km deep layer shear is forecast to be only 20 kts or less in most of the area, perhaps up to 25 kts in Colorado. Given the nebulous forcing and weak shear, may end up with just pulse updrafts with only a marginal severe risk in eastern areas where instability may be enough to make up for the lack of shear. Any severe threat should be limited to low end hail and/or wind in the typical mid afternoon through early evening hours when instability will peak. Precipitation chances will end west to east overnight. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s and lows Saturday night in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 143 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Southwesterly upper-level flow ahead of broad troughing across the Western United States appears favored Sunday morning through at least Monday night, and possibly into Tuesday. Conditions look to be warmer during this time period, with forecast high temperatures in the mid-70s to mid-80s across the CWA Sunday and Monday. A mixed mode of weather types cannot yet be ruled out Sunday and Monday, as current guidance indicates a dryline to be in place across portions of Western and Central Kansas. Moist conditions ahead of the dryline could favor precipitation, with a chance of thunderstorms, while drier conditions behind the dryline would favor fire weather conditions. Ensemble guidance indicates that high pressure across the Southeastern United States and back into Mexico and Baja California at 850-mb is favored, which would establish approximately southwesterly surface flow across the forecast region, and thus, favor the mode for critical fire weather conditions. Relative humidity (RH) values are currently forecast in the low to mid-teens across the majority of the CWA both Sunday and Monday afternoon. The hazard looks to be limited to portions of Eastern Colorado and perhaps far Western Kansas Sunday afternoon, with gusts in the 25-30 mph range possible, while a broader region of critical fire weather conditions are possible across the Tri-State Area Monday, with gusts forecast in the 25-45 mph range. NBM guidance suggests over a 50% probability for wind gusts to meet critical fire weather criteria Monday afternoon across the CWA. As such, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is currently highest on Monday, at around 20%.

Troughing from the west looks to move overhead sometime Tuesday, though there is some uncertainty between models regarding the timing of this system. GFS and EC ensemble guidance appears to favor troughing to the west through portions of the afternoon, though about a third of GEFS and EC members show the surface low in association with the trough already across portions of the Midwest by the mid to late afternoon hours, which would correspond to a quicker progression of the trough. A slower progression of this system could lead to another critical fire weather day for portions of the CWA, as current guidance indicates RH values in the mid to upper-teens across portions of West-Central Kansas Tuesday afternoon. However, a quicker progression would favor a cold front traversing the forecast region during the morning and early to mid- afternoon hours, which could mitigate fire weather concerns. LREF guidance would indicate about a 20-25% chance for RH values to meet criteria for critical fire weather Tuesday afternoon across West- Central Kansas, which would lower the concern for the hazard. Still, NBM guidance suggests around a 40-50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 30 mph in this zone. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Tuesday afternoon sits around 5%.

Model guidance begins to diverge by Wednesday morning, though ensembles indicate upper-level troughing may attempt to redevelop across the Western United States through the remainder of the period. Warmer conditions may be allowed to return with this pattern, as forecast highs are in the low to mid-70s Wednesday, and mid-70s to lower-80s Thursday. Mixed modes of wet and dry conditions may be experienced once again through the end of the period. LREF guidance gives around a 25% chance for dew points to exceed 40 degrees across portions of Norton and Graham Counties in Kansas Wednesday and Thursday, which could indicate a small chance for wet conditions across this area. However, fire weather appears to be the favored mode both days at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 509 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Storms moving in from the west will likely impact KGLD and may impact KMCK through the evening and overnight hours. At KGLD, the first round at storms, which would be the strongest, will occur between 0-3Z. Winds may gust from the northwest at 20-30 kts and MVFR visibilities may occur if a stronger storm moves overhead. After 3Z, winds may be coming from the northeast instead. Scattered showers will also be more likely after 3Z, but thunder is still possible. KMCK has a lower chance at seeing storms and showers, but best chance will be between 4-8Z.

Stratus and will move into the region, for KGLD around 9Z, for KMCK maybe as late as 22-0Z. Conditions will worsen, potentially to minimums at KGLD around 0Z, and at KMCK around 3Z tomorrow. Additionally, Friday morning, KGLD may see patchy fog, leading to MVFR to IFR visibilities.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.