textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Low-end chances for severe storms this afternoon and evening. A wind gust up to 75 mph is possible.

- Today & Tuesday could bring some strong winds with gusts around 30-60 mph.

- Freezing temperatures return Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 120 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

A few showers are moving through the area on the leading edge of a surface low advancing into the western portion of the area. These showers have largely remained sub-severe with the better instability south of the area. These showers should finish moving out of the area a few hours before sunrise. Meanwhile, winds have been elevated with speeds around 20-30 mph and gusts to 50 mph as the low has been nearing the area. This should continue until about sunrise, when we may see a slight reprieve as the center of the low moves over the area. Temperatures will likely remain in the 50s and 60s.

For the late morning and early afternoon hours, the main focus will be on the winds. While the upper trough and surface low remain forecast to elongate, the resulting pressure gradient and passage of the cold front should restrengthen the winds and shift them to out of the northwest. Speeds should reach 20-35 mph with gusts generally in the 35 to 55 mph range. Stronger winds are possible as we get later into the afternoon and evening. A 50-55kt 850-700mb is forecast to develop on the backside of the system. These winds will likely struggle to mix down on their own with it being later and cloud cover moving back in. However, the cold front is forecast to be positioned roughly from Tribune, KS to Norton, KS and generate storms as early as 17-18Z. These storms by themselves may not do much shift of produce some lightning and moderate to heavy rain. But they should help mix down some of these stronger winds, if the jet forms while the storms are present. If this occurs, be alert for a few wind gusts in the 55-75 mph range. Most of the strongest wind gusts should occur between about 3pm-12am. Temperatures for most of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska should reach the 60s and 70s as a dry slot moves in with the system and provides a few hours of sunshine. Areas further west will likely cap in the 50s with the cold front moving through and an increase in cloud cover on the backside of the system.

Overnight, the winds should remain elevated, but lower ever so slightly as the upper trough and low pressure system continue to push east. Another cloudy night with additional showers is forecast, though the shower should be light and fairly spotty given they should be from the wrap around of the system. Even with the cloud cover and strong winds, temperatures should drop into the 30s as cold air advects in from the northwest.

Tuesday, any lingering showers should dissipate close to sunrise as the surface low continues to push further east. Winds will remain around 15-35 mph with gusts to 55 mph through the morning as the upper trough stalls a bit before pushing northeast. Later in the day as the systems begin to get far enough away from the area, the cloud cover should clear and winds slowly lower. Temperatures will likely cap in the 40s and low 50s with the cold air mass forecast to be in place. Tuesday night, winds should become somewhat light around 5 to 10 mph as the system moves away and the pressure gradient relaxes. With the light winds and clearer skies, temperatures should cool into the 20s and 30s across most of the area.

Wednesday, a low amplitude upper low is forecast to move through the High Plains in larger split flow. This is forecast to develop a weak surface low along the lee of the Rockies as the day goes on. With the low forecast to be weak, the winds aren't forecast to change much with speeds around 5 to 15 mph and shifting to out of the north. Mostly sunny skies are forecast to allow temperatures to warm into the 50s across the area, with maybe a few low 60s. The upper low and surface low may be able to provide enough forcing for a few late showers and a storm. The main inhibitor is that we are forecast to have drier air in place. Wednesday night is forecast to be fairly similar to Tuesday night with lows around freezing and light winds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 158 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

On Thursday and Friday, the upper-level pattern swings from a zonal flow to mostly northwesterly as the trough starts sliding eastward before a weakening ridge over northern Nebraska moves to the southeast. This should allow a slight warming trend with afternoon highs as temperatures are forecast to rise from upper 40s and low 50s on Thursday to upper 50s on Friday. However, morning lows are still expected to be at or just above freezing before dawn. Clouds are also expected to decrease over these two days with winds shifting from the south to the southwest as a weak surface high pressure slides in from the west.

Over the weekend, it is expected that a broad trough system would follow through the area on Saturday and start to dig to the southeast. At the same time, a secondary ridge pattern starts to form to the west and amplify to the northeast. With our area in between these two features, we can expect a cold front to pass through and could allow a small chance (15%) for rain overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning. With this, winds are forecast to pick up from the north being between 15 and 20 mph. There is some uncertainty on Sunday regarding the upper- level pattern as ensemble spread increases to the southwest and could push the core of the broad trough into Texas. If this does happen, then this would allow the upper-level pattern to be more northerly and could bring in even more cooler air than anticipated on Sunday. There is low confidence (20%) that this would happen. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be similar to Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1015 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Ceilings varying between 500-2000ft are forecast for the first 3-6 hours of the period. Visibility is also expected to vary between 2-10SM. This variability is stemming from showers in the area, along with an advancing low pressure system. However, the system is forecast to bring in dry air and temporary VFR conditions, likely between 12-18Z. After that, an advancing cold front is forecast to bring low cloud cover back into the area that should persist through the end of the period. Winds will be strong, short of maybe a few hour reprieve around 12Z. Expect gusts around 30-50 kts through much of the period otherwise. Also, winds should shift rapidly to out of the northwest as the cold front moves through during the morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.