textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm chances continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Storms may be severe with large hail around an inch, but up to two inches. Wind gusts around 50-70 mph and maybe a tornado are also possible with severe storms.

- Severe weather potential continues Wednesday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1035 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The morning hours had a cluster of storms that formed and moved generally along and east of Highway 83 along a lingering outflow boundary. Current satellite and radar observations show the boundary is slowly sagging south through the area while additional showers and storms fire up around Logan and Gove counties from outflows from this morning. This should keep some shower and storm activity in the area through the rest of the morning. Severe weather is unlikely with these storms.

This afternoon and evening will largely be dependent on if showers/storms and cloud cover clears. We are forecast to remain in northwest flow aloft while the upper trough slides through the Plains. Along with the outflows in the area and a cold front nearing the area to the north, we should have plenty of forcing available for storms to develop. How severe and how widespread the storms are is what is dependent on our clearing. While moisture availability is high, this early cloud cover is stifling our instability recovery. Should this persist, the storm coverage will likely be lower over NW Kansas and SW Nebraska with mostly sub-severe storms. Eastern Colorado would then be the main focus with storms moving in from the west/northwest. This looks to be the slightly higher chance scenario based on the mid morning observations. Should we clear and warm enough, the severe threat would increase and storms would be more likely to push through NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. The threat magnitudes would also increase. Hail would go from around an inch, to up to 2 inches (maybe larger in a well developed supercell). Wind gusts would probably be similar in the 60-70 mph range, unless a QLCS developed in which case 80 mph is the max. A QLCS orientated roughly north/south or northeast/southwest would also give us a chance for a brief tornado with 0-3km shear vectors forecast to be roughly from the east around 25 kts. There only seems to be a 20% chance that an organized line (QLCS) develops in the west and pushes through. The peak time for severe weather is roughly from 4pm-11pm and 5pm-12am. Storms could continue through the night with outflows in the area and plenty of moisture forecast to be available.

Tomorrow, the upper trough is forecast to push into the Eastern United States while we remain under northwest flow. Higher pressure and colder air are forecast to be in place, helping us stay a bit cooler in the 80s. The pressure gradient is forecast to remain fairly broad and keep winds around 5-10 mph. There may be a few showers through the day, but the chances should be lower compared to today with storms less likely to persist through the early morning.

Showers and storms will be possible again during the afternoon and evening hours. The main storm batch will likely be coming from the west once they develop along the Front Range. There is a 10% chance that convective temperatures is reached and an isolated storm or two form over the area. Storms that form will likely be in an environment that supports large hail around an inch and wind gusts of 50-70 mph. If we can get a supercell to form before storms finish clustering, two inch or large hail may be able to form. The severe threat will largely be confined to the evening hours, though an outflow from the early storms may allow additional storms to form and linger through the night hours.

Thursday is forecast to be similar to Wednesday with highs in the 80s. Winds may be slightly higher as a low develops in the Northern Plains and brings speeds to around 10-15 mph. Storms may develop again during the late afternoon and evening hours if the convective temperatures can be reached, but the forecast for now only has a 30% chance of this occurring. If a storm does form, large hail and wind gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible again.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1010 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, high pressure continues to remain parked across the SW CONUS. Guidance suggests that a shortwave moves off of the northern Rockies. The better forcing is currently forecast to remain to the north which puts precipation potential a little in question but currently counties along and north of Highway 36 currently appears to have the relative higher potential.

Into the weekend a bit more pronounced trough is seen moving into the area from the Intermountain West. This is forecast to shift the high further south across the southern Plains. This may lead to a bit more active pattern across the area. The question will be how far south will the trough sag and if it will allow vorticity maxima to move across the area which currently appears to be the only forcing at this time as the better jet dynamics are currently forecast to remain off to the north. A similar pattern then may continue throughout next week as well but the high elongates some and has some indications of shifting a little east. If this does occur then an increase in monsoonal moisture may develop as this would then become a classic pattern daily showers and storms.

As for temperatures for the period. As long as the high pressure remains nearby the area then temperatures would remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s. If cloud cover were to remain thick enough then temperatures would have to be knocked down around 5-10 degrees but it will be dependent on precipitation coverage through the day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period, though storms and maybe some fog between 08-13Z maybe lead to brief visibility reductions. Storms and showers are possible through the period, but most likely between 02-08Z at both terminals. Storms would be more pop up and form over the terminal during the afternoon, whereas the evening storms would likely come from the northwest. Storms could produce ~50kt gusts and large hail. Winds should be light and variable unless storms or outflows are in the vicinity.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.