textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a very low chance, around 10%, for a severe thunderstorm capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail late this aft-eve, mainly in Greeley/ Wichita counties between 6-10 PM MDT.

- Expect cooler temperatures and predominantly dry conditions this weekend. Some rain possible with scattered showers late Saturday night and late Sunday aft-eve.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Today-Tonight: Moist southerly return flow is underway.. as surface high pressure shifts eastward/away from the Central Plains, a baggy lee cyclone redevelops over south- central/southeast CO and a low-level (surface to 850 mb) ridge over the Deep South directs Gulf moisture poleward into the Southern and Central Plains. Recent (12-18Z) model guidance suggest that the KS-OK border area will be the northern extent of rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60's, 850 mb dewpoints >14C) this aft-eve, a bit further south than previously indicated. Additionally, surface observations and radar/satellite trends suggest that morning convection in the TX-OK Panhandle and widespread morning cloud cover in southwest KS have delayed/stunted diurnal heating. 19Z SPC mesoanalysis forecast data indicates that a considerable amount (100-250 J/kg) of convective inhibition is likely to persist over northwest KS and southwest NE this aft-eve.. and simulated reflectivity forecasts via the 18Z HRRR and 12Z NAM NEST both suggest that convective development will be confined to far southwest KS, where low-level convergence on the eastern periphery of the baggy lee cyclone is expected to serve as a focus/catalyst for development. With the above in mind, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail in the Goodland CWA. A very low (5-10%) conditional potential for a severe storm still exists in Greeley/Wichita counties ~00-04Z this evening, when and where instability/shear will be sufficient for supercellular organization. Expect highs in the mid-upper 80's to lower 90's. With the driest conditions (RH's ~15-20%) confined to Yuma County, CO.. where initially breezy SSE to S winds will weaken to 10-15 mph during the mid-late afternoon, there are no appreciable fire weather concerns today.

Sat-Sun: Unidirectional/westerly flow aloft will persist over the the weekend. Guidance continues to suggest that a cooler/drier airmass advecting southward into the Tri-State Area in the wake of a modest cold frontal passage on Sat will preclude appreciable convective development in the Goodland CWA. Expect predominantly dry conditions with highs ~80-88F on Sat and 65-75F on Sun.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mon-Tue: Long range guidance indicates a transition to NNW to NW flow aloft early next week.. on the eastern periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge along the Pacific Coast. Precip/convection is possible, depending on the timing/track of shortwave energy in NNW to NW flow aloft. Temperatures and wind speed/direction will also highly depend upon the timing/track of shortwave energy and associated clipper lows.

Wed-Thu: Long range guidance indicates that the aforementioned ridge will shift eastward across the 4-Corners, central- southern Rockies and Central/Southern Plains around mid-week, suggesting a warming trend and below average precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. S to SSW winds at 20 knots will gust to 30 knots through the afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 35 knots are possible early this afternoon, at the beginning of the TAF period. S winds are expected to decrease to ~10-15 knots after sunset and persist overnight. A period of strong southerly winds assoc/w outflow emanating from thunderstorms in southwest KS is possible at the Goodland terminal this evening (depending on thunderstorm coverage/evolution). Winds will shift to the N-NNE and increase to 15-25 knots in assoc/w a cold frontal passage a few hours after sunrise (~14-16Z) Sat, near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.