textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- 10-25% chance of sprinkles or light showers favoring locations along and north of I-70 tonight.

- Breezy to gusty winds Monday resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph most likely, but could gust as high as 60 mph across eastern Colorado early Monday morning. - Above normal temperatures and fire weather concerns continue through the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1131 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

The pattern over the next couple of days will be slightly more calm than the past week. The blocking high near the southwestern CONUS is forecast to remain and, even though its influence will be less than it was last week, northwesterly to zonal flow is expected. This will allow some weak shortwaves to pass through in the upper levels.

A weak 500 mb shortwave will move over the region early this morning. This will provide enough forcing to lead to some light precipitation, provided there is enough moisture to fall out. Down at 850 mb, a high will be exiting to the southeast. This will provide southerly flow into the CWA today, and supply any moisture that does precipitate. Very little moisture advection is expected, leading to the less than 25 PoPs this morning. Any precipitation that does fall will likely be rain, but some flurries cannot be ruled out. No accumulation is expected. Best chance for precipitation will be between 9-15Z.

Additionally, as the high exits to the east, the southerly flow will lead to some breezy conditions at the surface. The return flow will provide WAA and allow temperatures to warm into the 60s, potentially low 70s in the southwestern CWA. The flow from the exiting high looks to be strong enough to produce sustained winds in the 15-30 kts range and gusts up to 25-40 kts, strongest in eastern Colorado. Isolated gusts of 50 kts are possible in eastern Colorado between 15- 20Z.

Thankfully, RH values look to remain at or above 20%, so the threat for critical fire weather conditions is not high. The breezy conditions are likely to persist overnight as surface pressure rises look to continue until around 6Z. These southerly, breezy conditions and partly to mostly cloudy skies will work to keep temperatures in the upper 30s.

Tuesday, the flow aloft becomes more northwesterly and a weak low comes out of southern Colorado. This will let keep any moisture advection limited to the eastern CWA, allowing the western CWA to stay dry and rapidly warm. Highs Tuesday are forecast to climb into the low 80s in the eastern half of the CWA and upper 70s for the eastern half. Similarly, RH values will drop to around 15% in eastern Colorado, but remain above 20% along and east of U.S. 83. Winds are generally expected to remain below 20 kts, limiting the fire weather concern. Overnight temperatures are forecast to only cool into the mid to upper 40s Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 220 AM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Wednesday remains forecast to be another record high day with temperatures forecast to climb into the 90s across the area. Most of the area should warm into the low to mid 90s, with the chances for upper 90s slightly lower compared to prior guidance runs. Critical fire weather chances remain on the low end with an upper ridge over the area and late frontal passage keeping winds during the day around 10-15 mph with gusts below 25 mph.

A front/low pressure system remains forecast to push through the area early Thursday around sunrise as an upper shortwave moves in from the northwest and flattens the ridge. While the system is forecast to bring in some stronger winds, they are currently forecast to be around 20 with gusts to 35-40 mph. This is because the wave is forecast to push through slowly and have broad low pressure across the Plains. This should keep the gradient from becoming too strong and increasing the winds. That being said, a slower progression may keep the colder air from moving in until late in the day Thursday. While temperatures should be lower than Wednesday with highs forecast in the 70s and 80s, the dry lingering conditions could lead to critical fire weather conditions. We may be saved by some higher level cloud cover that could keep the area from warming to our full potential.

Friday and Saturday are forecast to be cooler with the colder air mass forecast to be in place across much of the Plains. This could allow morning lows to reach freezing, with daytime highs in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures may be a bit warmer if some of the ensemble guidance is correct and the upper trough pushes through faster and more to the north, deflecting the center of the high pressure well east of the area. Saturday could bring some critical fire weather conditions to the area as lower pressure is forecast to develop along the front range and increase the winds. We'll see if this takes shape and if the next upper ridge can truly amplify over the west again. If it does, expect a hotter start to the next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 501 AM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the periods. Cloud cover is forecast for most of the day, but heights should generally be above 10000ft. A few high based showers and sprinkles are possible, mainly for KMCK, through 18Z. Winds are forecast to also increase around 17-18Z to 20 kts with gusts reach 30-40 kts. The winds should then lower within a few hours of sunset down to around 10 kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 415 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record high temperatures (for the date) are possible on Wednesday March 25.

================================================== Record Highs for Wed March 25 Current Forecast ================================================== Burlington.........83 in 1998 91 Goodland...........85 in 1907 92 Hill City..........88 in 1956 93 McCook.............88 in 1910 92

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.