textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- High wind watch upgraded to warning for all counties except Cheyenne and Rawlins in northwest Kansas.

- Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions on Tuesday. Very dry conditions and winds gusting over 60 mph will create conditions favorable for explosive fire growth.

- Blowing dust will likely reduce air quality in eastern Colorado and adjacent areas on Tuesday. Low visibility due to dust plumes may also hinder travel.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 149 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

18Z water vapor imagery/RAP analysis indicated broad ridging across the Central Plains with strong closed low moving onto the California coast. At the surface, low was centered near the NM/OK border with inverted trough extending northwest towards KDEN.

Tonight...Calm before the storm would be an appropriate way to describe the pattern tonight. Sfc trough/low across eastern Colorado will deepen through the night allowing winds to become more southerly and increase. Aside from the aviation concerns around low level wind shear, should be overall tranquil evening with temperatures remaining well above normal.

Tuesday-Tuesday Night...Aforementioned strong trough entering the west coast will be ejected across the central Rockies and onto northern plains. Strong cyclogenesis will be ongoing across the Northern Plains during the morning, continuing through the afternoon. This will result in an intense height gradient across the area, with 50-55kts sitting atop the boundary layer. Pattern looks to be one where as atmosphere heats up these stronger winds will periodically mix down from time to time as the sustained winds gradually ramp up to near 40 mph in the afternoon. General consensus that this deeply mixed layer will prevail across the southwestern CWA, with some indication of a second surge across the northwest CWA in the late afternoon. While concerns remain on the exact coverage of the strongest winds, confidence in pattern high enough to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning for all but 2 of the counties on northern fringe of the winds as confidence high that sustained winds will be at or above 40 mph through the afternoon regardless of what maximum wind gust coverage is.

Dust will continue to be a concern as well, although deep mixed layer by the afternoon would tend to support scattered dust plumes as opposed to a moving wall of dust. Threat for the organized moving dust threat would be tied to initial onset of strong winds as it spreads west to east in the late morning, but think that scenario has a probability of < 10%. With a mixed layer growing to over 3km deep as winds strengthen, think brownout threat will likely be tied to within 1 to 3 miles of each source region. Poor air quality will be quite widespread, so take proper precautions.

Fire weather conditions will easily reach critical values across the entire area for much of the day. Using local GFDI data, there are several locations that will see nearly 8 hours of extreme fire danger as the strong winds advect single digit relative humidity into the area. Main concern now is whether or not fire danger will be so extreme it is approaching a historic type threat. If not for the recent rain on Saturday would be comfortable messaging a 'particularly dangerous situation' across much of the area, but the recent widespread 0.5-1.0" of rain does raise some concerns. Majority of fuels in area are 1 hour fuels though and with fuels remaining cured this time of the year I don't think this will significantly limit fire growth. With ERC values expected to be the maximum observed values for this time of year and aforementioned reasons, think PDS wording is warranted for several areas.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

A shortwave trough coming over the Colorado Rockies looks to allow a surface cyclone to form across portions of Northeast Colorado and Southern Wyoming Wednesday morning. Deepening of the surface low is favored to take place due to lee cyclogenesis, and would establish strong southwesterly winds across the CWA during the early to mid- morning hours. Wind gusts by the mid-afternoon may reach 25-40 mph across portions of Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas. Forecasted RH values in the mid-teens across this zone may implicate critical fire weather as a potential hazard. NBM guidance suggests around a 30-40% chance exists for wind gusts to meet or exceed critical fire weather criteria for portions of Western Kansas, with a 50-60% chance or better for portions of Eastern Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is highest for East- Central Colorado at around 50%, whereas confidence across portions of Northeast Colorado and Western Kansas rests around 25-30%. Additionally, as the surface low pressure moves east-southeastward throughout the day, surface winds may go from southwesterly to easterly for portions of far Northwestern Kansas, Northeast Colorado, and Southwest Nebraska. Ongoing fires in the middle of this wind shift would have the potential to sudden1 High temperatures Wednesday afternoon are currently forecast in the upper-50s to mid-60s.

Winter weather may be possible Wednesday night and into Thursday as another shortwave system traverses the Rockies and High Plains. Low temperatures are currently forecast in the 20s across the CWA Wednesday night. Light rain and snow are possible, with portions of Northeast Colorado and Southwest Nebraska experiencing the highest chance for precipitation (25-40%) through the overnight hours. Northwest Kansas may have a higher chance for light snow Thursday morning and into the afternoon, though current guidance indicates most precipitation from this system should exit the forecast region by late Thursday evening. Snowfall accumulations may reach up to an inch and a half across portions of Northeast Colorado and Southwest Nebraska, though solutions of an inch or less are currently favored. Temperatures on Thursday look to be a bit lower than the start of this week, with highs in the upper-30s to upper-40s, and lows in the teens.

Model divergence is a bit higher Friday and Saturday, particularly regarding the southern extent of an upper level trough. If this feature is able to extend into the Central United States, another winter system is possible on Friday and into Saturday. About 25% of GEFS/ECMWF members indicate the possibility of accumulating snowfall from this system, with around half of these members indicating snowfall meeting or nearing Winter Weather Advisory criteria. Timing and coverage is a bit uncertain at this time, though NBM and ensemble guidance points toward Friday evening and overnight as the most likely time for precipitation to occur. Cooler temperatures still seem to be favored Friday and Saturday, with forecast highs in the low to mid-40s, and mid to upper-40s respectively. However, temperatures may be 5-10 degrees lower, particularly on Saturday, if precipitation is allowed to occur, northerly winds are allowed to set up sooner than Saturday morning, or winds Friday night and Saturday are stronger than the current forecast.

Upper level ridging appears to be favored from Sunday morning through the end of the forecast period Monday night. Surface winds look to be out of the south with this setup, which may allow for warmer temperatures going into next week. Current forecast highs for Sunday and Monday are in the upper-40s to low-50s, and upper-50s to low-60s respectively.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1025 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period but with some caveats thrown in there. First off, winds are forecast to shift to the southwest through the remainder of the night. LLWS is also a concern through the night as the low leve wind field increases. If slightly higher winds can mix down to the surface then LLWS may not be as big of an issue but currently am thinking that winds over will will remain around 10-15 knots sustained. As soon as the nocturnal inversion breaks this is when strong to damaging winds will begin to mix down between 40 and 50 knots. Blowing dust leading to a haze may lead to some ceilings less than 030 but confidence in exact timing is not there to go full on MVFR for the TAF at this time. Should a plume of dust move over a terminal then then this is where flight category reductions could come in to play. Think the favored time is between 16 and 20Z with higher confidence for the GLD terminal where the stronger winds are favored.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026 Updated at 151 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Current fire weather forecast concerns on track, previous discussion continues below.

Main focus continues to be on a potentially dangerous fire weather day for the area Tuesday. Winds are forecast to become southwesterly overnight Monday leading to drier air advecting in and an increase in temperatures resulting in overnight humidity values maxing out around 50% across eastern Colorado. A volatile environment is forecast to be set for the potential for large and quick moving wild fires is forecast to exist across portions of the area. Strong to damaging winds with sustained winds of 40-50 mph and wind gusts of at least 55-65 mph are currently forecast. Humidity values are also forecast to fall at least into the lower teens perhaps as low as the mid single digits.

Wind gusts are forecast to be around 20-30 mph through around 8-9am MT before quickly ramping up between 9-10am where gusts of 50-65 mph are forecast along with sustained winds around 40-50 mph. Winds during this time will be from the southwest. Into the early afternoon sustained winds may weaken some to around 30-40 mph with 60 mph gusts perhaps a bit more sporadic as any damaging wind gusts would be from increasing mixing heights to around 10000 feet AGL. A cold front moving in from the west will shift winds from the southwest to a more westerly direction along with very low dew points in the single digits helping keep humidity values low. There is some concern for another surge of damaging winds with the cold front as well. Breezy to gusty winds are then forecast to continue through the evening before waning around 11pm MT. Be aware for blowing dust and localized dust storms throughout the day as well. Overnight temperatures into Wednesday morning are forecast to fall below freezing which could have an impact on hoses/water freezing up should any fires still be ongoing.

Confidence is very high to almost a near certainty in numerous hours of critical fire weather occurring across most if not all of the forecast area. The main concern other than the low humidity values is the duration of the sustained winds greater than 30 mph and being as high as 50 mph at times. This along with near record high temperatures and the low humidity is the signal for numerous hours of extreme grassland fire danger index and forecast values exceeding 100. If the current forecast pans out then locations across eastern Colorado could see around 8 hours of extreme values.

Tuesday night and into Wednesday, widespread humidity values maxing out around 45-50% would provide little relief before another round of critical fire weather develops across the area. Locations along and south of Interstate 70 are currently favored for multiple hours of critical conditions again as southwest winds are forecast to gust up to 45 mph. 10 hour fuel moisture is forecast to fall to around 10% and then fall below 10% into Wednesday which suggests very dry fuels. Regional ERC values according to the National Interagency Coordination Center are forecast to continue to climb to in between 40 and 50 whereas the 90th percentile is located at 50. This also does bring concern to the upper end potential of this fire weather event that there is is regional support for high ERC's.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ Tuesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. High Wind Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday for KSZ013-014-027>029-041-042. High Wind Watch from 11 AM CST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for KSZ001-002. CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for COZ252>254. High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ090>092. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ Tuesday for NEZ079>081.