textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorm possible in northeast CO this afternoon. Low chance (less than 20%) for severe weather.

- A few severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind are possible Friday afternoon, mainly in northwest KS and southwest NE between ~2-8 pm MDT.

- Increasing signal for above normal temperatures this weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 350 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Through Tonight: Visible satellite and regional radar trends suggest that a remnant mesoscale convective vortex (most pronounced at ~700 mb on SPC mesoanalysis) just east of Graham County (near Stockton/Osborne at 20Z this afternoon) will continue to slowly track NNE-NE toward southeast Nebraska this aft-eve. In the lower levels, a baggy MSLP to 850 mb height pattern on the eastern periphery of a modest lee trough in Colorado will maintain weak (~10-15 knot) S to SE flow over the region this aft-eve. W/regard to convection, observational trends and high-res convection allowing guidance suggest that [1] Weak low-level forcing, [2] subsidence on the western periphery of the departing mid-level wave / MCV and [3] increasing convective inhibition (MLCIN) associated with an eastward advancing elevated mixed layer (characterized by 700-500 mb lapse rates ~8.0 to 8.5 C/km) will effectively cap an otherwise moderately unstable airmass over northwest KS and southwest NE.. where surface dewpoints are in the upper 50's to lower 60's, 850 mb dewpoints are ~12-14C and mlcape values range from 1000-2000 J/kg. With modest (~10-15 knot) westerly steering flow, high-based updrafts north of I-76 (along the Cheyenne Ridge) are likely to remain N and NW of the Goodland CWA this aft-eve, though.. given that right-mover motion is from the N at 10-15 knots.. an organized updraft (transient or otherwise), if present, could conceivably progress southward into Yuma County. Recent runs of the HRRR/NAM NEST suggest that a few high-based updrafts may develop further south along the Palmer Divide late this aft-eve (~00-02Z, 6-8p MDT).. where weak forcing, a very dry mid-level airmass and increasing convective inhibition (esp. after sunset) are likely to limit/hamper downstream (eastward) propagation.

Fri-Fri night: A modest ~250-300 mb trough / SW-to-NE oriented shear axis and accompanying low-level reflection (a SW-to-NE oriented MSLP to 850 mb trough) will progress east across the Tri-State Area during the day on Friday, when/where weak low- level convergence may serve as a focus for scattered convective development during the early-mid afternoon. Guidance suggests that the surface to 850 mb trough will be situated along/near a line (roughly) from Leoti-Oakley-Oberlin. Locations along and east of the low-level convergence zone are relatively more likely to see convective development. Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v thermodynamic profiles with seasonably strong DCAPE, moderate high-based instability with weak (~10-15 knot) flow in the lowest 15,000 to 20,000 ft AGL and weak deep- layer shear. With this in mind, locally damaging wind appears to be the primary hazard with any convection. Even if convection is largely unorganized in nature, severe hail is certainly possible.. especially east of Highway 83 where strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg mlcape) may be present.

Sat-Sat night: While ample low-level moisture will likely foster moderate diurnal destabilization (~1500 J/kg mlcape) over eastern portions of the area on Sat, synoptic subsidence associated with an amplifying upper level ridge over the Central-Northern Plains will tend to suppress convective development. Expect highs similar-to, albeit a few degrees warmer than, Friday.. ~92-97F.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 314 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Sunday, our county warning area (CWA) will remain in a broad southwest upper-level flow aloft downstream of a low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s. Skies will be mostly clear until the evening when we see a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) generally range around 30% for the northern CWA. Severe storms are possible as there are around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE present over the CWA, but shear will be the limiting factor for storms. Forecast soundings indicate around 20 knots of shear. Should storms develop, small hail and strong winds associated with collapsing thunderstorms are the primary hazards.

Storm chances continue Sunday evening through Monday for the area with PoPs from 20-40%, increasing from north to south. The environment appears more supportive of severe storm development. Our region is in a strong southwest upper-level flow with a weak jet streak around 70 knots over the region. The environment is still moderately unstable with around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE, but again, shear is the limiting factor with model soundings showing 20-40 knots of shear. Hazards are similar to Sunday with small hail and strong winds as the primary concerns, but some stronger storms could produce large hail. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s, but if the region sees widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday, increased cloud cover could lower temperatures and decrease storm chances for Monday.

The remainder of the extended forecast period is shaping up to be hot, windy, and dry with above average temperatures, strong winds and low relative humidity (RH) values forecast. Tuesday through Thursday, high temperatures are forecast in the 90s to 100s with wind gusts from 25-40 mph possible. RH values are expected to fall in the low teens to 20s, decreasing from east to west. RH values may trend lower than currently forecast due to persistent southwest upper-level flow and south-southwest winds promoting downslope warming and mixing. This could increase temperatures and winds as well. These conditions will support critical fire weather conditions Tuesday through Thursday, mainly in the afternoon hours when RH values are the lowest. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values of 60 to 100+ are forecast, with the highest being across the western CWA. Any fires that develop may spread rapidly and become difficult to control.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 350 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions and light (~6-12 knot) ESE to S winds are expected to prevail through the 00Z TAF period. The development of a modest southwesterly low-level jet (~1000 to 2000 ft AGL) may lead to a period of LLWS at either/both terminals late this evening and overnight, mainly between 04-10Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.