textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- An Arctic airmass will bring much colder temperatures and wind chills to the area at the end of the work week. Wind chills of -15 to -20 are forecast Friday and Sunday mornings. Wind chills Saturday morning may approach -25 degrees.

- Accumulating snow remains forecast for the Tri-State area Friday through Saturday evening. Locations along and south of Interstate 70 in NW Kansas is favored to see the highest amounts at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Focus remains on the cold temperatures and snow for Friday and Saturday. Shortwave trough digging along the High Plains will provide synoptic scale lift, with some help from favorable, albeit light, low level upslope winds. Some notable changes have occurred with the 12z model runs. Temperatures have once again dropped a few more degrees. Now looking at highs in the single digits and lows in the single digits below zero both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures may drop a few more degrees in later runs and have leaned more into the colder guidance. Sunday morning is still a concern: if clouds can clear temperatures may plummet with the fresh snow and light winds into the teens below zero. Probabilities from the NBM 5.0 are running around 50% for meeting Cold Weather Advisory Criteria (15 to 24 below wind chills) from Friday morning through Sunday morning, and around 10% for meeting Extreme Cold Warning criteria (25 below wind chills) for Saturday night/Sunday morning. On the snow side, amounts have increased across the board. There is fairly good agreement between the Canadian, ECMWF and GFS ensemble means for snow totals through 12z Sunday (using 20:1 ratio, this will be a dry snow). Highest amounts are expected in northwest Kansas south of Interstate 70, where 4-6" is forecast, with 2-4" in the remainder of the area. NBM 5.0 probabilities of 6" or more (Winter Storm Warning criteria) is 50% for the southeast corner of the area: Graham, Sheridan and Gove counties, with the 40% probabilities extending to adjacent counties as far west as Highway 25. 90th percentile amounts (high end, 10% chance of occurrence) are up to 8 inches in those same areas. A Winter Storm Watch may be required if these trends continue. Wind is still not expected to be much of a factor, with perhaps some gusts up to 20 mph with snow onset Friday afternoon, the remainder of the period will see winds of less than 10 mph.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 115 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Sunday remains cold in wake of our winter storm. Highs are forecast in the mid 20s for the county warning area (CWA) and lows around zero. Sunday night into Monday, wind chill values remain dangerously low with values in the negative teens. A trough sweeps through north of the region bringing a slight chance of snow to our Colorado counties. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 5-10 for our Colorado counties. Forecast winds are mild and variable with gusts up to 25 mph possible.

Things begin to warm up Monday as we enter a predominantly zonal upper level pattern. Highs are forecast in the upper 30s for the northwest portion of the CWA and lower 30s for the southeast portion. Lows are forecast in the teens and wind chills in the single digits.

The warming trend continue Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures are slightly above normal for this time of year with highs forecast in the 40s. Lows are forecast in the teens. Winds continue to be mild and variable with gusts up to 25 mph forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 423 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at KGLD and KMCK, with a deep dry air mass in place. Surface gradient remains relatively weak, and while there is a weak cold front near northwest KS winds should decrease becoming light and variable after sunset this evening. Daytime mixing Thursday should allow for prevailing northeast winds to increase at KGLD with periodic gusts 15-18kt. After winds decrease from the northwest this evening at KMCK they should remain 10kt or less through the remaining TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.