textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and near average to slightly above average temperatures expected, with high temperatures generally in the 70s and 80s.

- Breezy conditions expected this afternoon, with gusts generally in the 25-40 MPH range from the southwest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1209 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Current observations have an upper ridge over the Western United States, with a large trough over the Great Lakes region. This is keeping the area in northwest flow aloft, though the greater flow remains north of the area with the ridge amplified into Canada. At the surface, the high pressure is shifting slowly off to the east. This has lead to clear skies and initially light winds for the early overnight hours.

For today, clear skies should remain in place with a relative lack of features and moisture advection into the area. With the high pressure pulling east and a new surface low developing in the High Plains, the pressure gradient should tighten and winds increase into the afternoon hours. Most of the area should see winds increase to 15- 20 mph with gusts generally in the 25-35 mph range. There may be slightly stronger winds at times with gusts around 40 mph. While the increase in winds across the area does slightly increase the fire danger, critical fire weather conditions are not expected with RH forecast to remain above 20%. The drier air associated with the new surface low will likely stay closer to the Front Range. Temperatures should be warmer today with southerly warm air advection and plenty of sunshine. Most of the area should near 80 or reach the lower 80s. Mid to upper 80s are possible near the Tri-State border depending on how far the low advances east.

Tonight, winds are forecast to slowly lower closer to 5-10 mph. With the stronger winds initially, we should stay mixed and have temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s through most of the night. Closer to sunrise, temperatures are forecast to drop towards the low to mid 50s should the winds lower underneath clear skies.

Tuesday, the upper pattern isn't forecast to change much short of another trough moving through the northwest flow well to the north of the area. This should help push the surface low pressure into the area, but broaden it out and keep the winds light around 5 to 10 mph. Mostly sunny skies are forecast for the day, with a few high clouds pushing in from the west over the Rockies. The clouds however, are forecast to do little to help with temperatures as most of the area is forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s underneath the low. A few 90s wouldn't be unreasonable depending on how thick and widespread the cloud cover is.

Later Tuesday, there may be a few showers that try and fire up with the upper trough pushing through and the surface low in the area. But the lack of moisture and overall forcing remaining weak keeps the chances around 10% or less. So more than likely, clear skies and light winds will be in place Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Synoptically, from Wednesday through next Monday, upper level flow remains from the northwest as the ridge over the Four Corners region stays nearly stationary. Beginning around Friday into Saturday, the ridge looks to weaken and shift east, transitioning upper level flow to come from the west/southwest by early Sunday morning. Guidance indicates a few shortwaves could move through the County Warning Area (CWA) over the weekend.

High temperatures across the Tri-State area should remain in the 70s and 80s through Sunday. Saturday is currently forecast to be the warmest day, with highs in the low to mid 80s across the majority of the area. Overnight lows are forecast to stay in the 50s and 60s. Probabilities of Precipitation (PoPs) remain below 10% through Sunday, though shortwaves moving through the area could increase chances if the shortwaves strengthen.

Winds early in the period should be primarily be southerly at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. From Friday and Saturday through Sunday, breezier afternoons are possible with gusts reaching 30-40 mph. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to stay above 20% for most of the CWA, keeping fire weather concerns low. However, conditions in the Colorado Counties may require monitoring on Saturday, as RH values approach 20% alongside gusts of 25-35 mph. Some guidance suggests a front moving through the northwestern portions of the CWA, which could lower RH values further and increase fire weather potential.

Long range models begin to diverge around Sunday morning. The Canadian-NH, ECMWF-HiRes, and GFS all show an upper level trough, around 550 dam, originating from the Pacific-Northwest and setting up over the rockies near Idaho. As this trough moves through the region, the early part of next week could see the best precipitation chances. However, if the trough progresses slower precipitation chances will shift later into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 527 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For both KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are forecast with clear skies. Winds start off from the south and around 5-10 kts. Beginning at 15Z, expect south winds to increase to around 10-15 kts along with gusts near 20-25 kts. Around 6Z expect winds from the south/southeast and weaken to 5-10 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.