textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the Tri-State Area until 18Z Friday.

- Fog chances continue through Sunday,

- 40-60% rain chances return today and Saturday morning.

- Early next week may see strong northwesterly winds and precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Through Sunday, the upper level pattern is not forecast to change much. The area should remain under broad southwest flow aloft. At the surface, low pressure should remain west of the area on the lee of the rockies. This is forecast to keep the low level flow from the south and southeast, with winds generally around 5-15 mph until Sunday night. This setup should keep plenty of moisture moving into the area, keeping fog chances in place over the area along with mostly cloudy skies should the fog break. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the entire area through today at noon, though there may be a few areas in Northwest Kansas that could keep the dense fog into the early afternoon hours. Tonight into Saturday morning and again Saturday night into Sunday morning have chances for dense fog to develop across most of the area.

The main potential foil to the dense fog is that a shortwave is forecast to move through the area today and provide chances for rain. The main window for rain looks to be after 2pm today and before midnight, but it could linger through the night if the shortwave doesn't progress through the area too quickly. Where rain is tonight, fog will likely struggle to be dense. This looks to favor mainly NW Kansas and SW Nebraska, with chances higher as you go east given the easterly progression of the wave. Most of the rain would likely fall in the form of weak showers with the continuous cloud cover inhibiting convective instability and mid-level lapse rates. Rainfall totals are forecast to range between a trace, to maybe a few tenths.

Temperatures are not forecast to vary much from what we have seen the last few days. Those who have fog linger late in the morning and into the early afternoon hours will likely only reach the 50s. Those who clear the fog and/or see peaks of sunshine should warm to near or in the 60s. Overnight lows will continue to range from the upper 30s, to lower 50s depending on how low-level moisture moves in.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 312 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Main forecast highlights for Monday are wind and precipitation potential.

We are forecast to be in a weak, mostly southwest flow aloft with a weak jet streak overhead. Previous model runs showed a much stronger jet streak over our area. There is also a weak trough just west of the Rocky Mountains with a second deeper trough digging over the Pacific. A strong cold front is forecast to move in from the northwest setting the stage for a potential high wind day for the county warning area (CWA). A surface low will set up sometime Monday afternoon, but modes diverge on its location, creating uncertainty in the forecast. ECMWF ensembles have the low setting up somewhere in Nebraska while GFS ensembles forecast the low in northwest Kansas or southwest Nebraska. Canadian ensembles are split roughly 50/50 between the ECMWF and GFS solutions. Another notable difference in ensembles is the GFS is showing a much deeper surface low, which is supportive of a tighter pressure gradient and stronger wind potential. So while there is uncertainty in the low location, we have all the necessary ingredients for a high wind day, the intensity is the main question. Where the low sets up and how strong it becomes will determine the severity of the winds. Sky cover will be another factor. Clear skies will allow stronger synoptic winds to mix down to the surface, while cloudy skies will serve as a barrier for stronger winds to make it to the surface.

Winds are expected to pick up in the afternoon after the cold front from the northwest moves through. The entire CWA should expect to see windy conditions, but the counties along and west of the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska borders will see the strongest winds with gusts up to 60 mph possible. The eastern CWA could see gusts up to 40 mph.

Precipitation wise, showers and storms are expected to fire off in the afternoon following the morning cold frontal passage. Southwest flow aloft will send several embedded shortwaves and associated vorticity maxima across the CWA Monday afternoon. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 50-75%, increasing from west to east. The western CWA will likely receive just rain, while the eastern CWA has enough instability to support a weak thunderstorm or two.

Blowing dust will be something to keep an eye out for Monday. Lapse rates are not supportive of dust being lofted, and the recent stretch of dense fog will help keep the ground saturated. Precipitation will also help limit the potential for blowing dust, although PoPs for eastern Colorado are only around 50%. Areas that miss out on Monday's precipitation will be a concern for blowing dust if they can dry out enough.

Tuesday is forecast to be another windy day as another jet streak scrapes the CWA. While not as strong, wind gusts up to 50 mph are still possible for the western CWA. This will really depend on what the upper-level flow does Monday and where the jet sets up. Models diverge on the pattern aloft after Monday, so the jet streak could shift south of our area, diminishing the wind threat. Blowing dust is also on the table, but how Monday pans out will determine the threat.

Temperatures for the long term period are fairly consistent. Monday's highs are forecast in the 50s to 60s with potential for the far eastern CWA to see some 70s. Tuesday through Friday, expect high temperatures in the 50s with lows in the 30s to 40s. Our eastern Colorado counties could see lows around freezing through Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Dense fog and low ceilings around 200-500ft are forecast through about 18-18Z. There may be a few pockets where conditions improve to MVFR of VFR levels during this time, but the breaks would likely only be for half an hour to an hour. After 18Z, there is the possibility for fog to linger through 21Z, but the forecast is for the fog to clear and ceilings to lift to around 1000-2000ft. Ceilings should then lower back to a few hundred feet fairly quickly after 00Z. Winds should remain around 5-10 kts from the east/southeast.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ090>092. NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for NEZ079>081.