textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow may develop over portions of the area Tue night into Wed morning. Light amounts, minimal impact(s).

- Dry conditions expected through the remainder of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 129 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

This morning, we have a trough moving over the region, which is producing snow and cold temperatures. The trough axis will lead to a cold front passing through the CWA later this morning, which will dry out the column and end any remaining precipitation. This cold front will enter the northwestern CWA around 16Z this morning and progress fairly quickly to the southeast. By 21Z, it will be through the area. Precipitation will be ending about 1-3 hours ahead of the FROPA, so by 18-20Z, precipitation will have fully ended in the CWA.

We are still forecasting trace to 3 inches of snow to fall with the highest snowfall amounts expected to be in the southeastern CWA. Most of the CWA will receive less than 2 inch of snow. There is still a 10-20% chance a band of snow could lead to 2-5 inches of snow. If this does occur, it would likely be around Thomas, Sheridan, or Gove counties, but may reach Hill City. We will see occasional gusts of 20 kts during the snow, which could lead to some brief patches of less than 1 mile visibility, but generally visibilities will range from 1-6 miles during the snow. Travel impacts will should be minimal, but if the snowband does occur, travel will become hazardous.

Temperatures this morning are still forecast to be in the low to mid teens, with some northwestern locations potentially seeing upper single digits. Thankfully, ahead of the front, winds will weaken to generally under 10 kts during the coldest parts of the morning. This will keep wind chills around 0, so bundle up as you're heading out this morning!

Today, after the front moves through, northwesterly winds will pick up and we will see gusts around the 20-23 kts range. We will see the sky clear out and temperatures will warm into the 30s for most of the CWA. There is a 15-25% chance these winds will start blowing the freshly fallen snow. With such light accumulations, widespread impacts to visibility are not anticipated. The eastern CWA will remain cooler due to the clouds lingering later into the day. Highs in along and east of a line from McCook, NE to Gove, KS will likely not climb above freezing.

Overnight tonight, temperatures will cool into the teens with the eastern CWA still remaining the coolest, dropping to around 10F. There is a 10% chance a very weak shortwave comes off the Northern Rockies around 9-15Z tomorrow morning, which would lead to some flurries or just virga. The lower 100-200 mb look to be fairly dry tomorrow, so virga is favored. Wind chills Tuesday morning are forecast to be marginally warmer than Monday's, only dropping into the mid single digits.

Tuesday, westerly flow aloft is favored and a low-level ridge passing over in the morning will give us some WAA from the south. This will get temperatures into the 40s, maybe even low 50s, during the day Tuesday.

Late Tuesday afternoon, an 850 mb low is forecast to eject off the Rockies and bring another cold front and precipitation chance to the CWA. Lows Tuesday night will remain fairly warm, due to the additional moisture content, likely staying in the 20s. Precipitation looks to start creeping into the northwestern portion of the area around 6-12Z Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 115 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

The central plains will be under a broad northwest to zonal flow through the long term period, between an upper low over eastern Canada and a ridge off the west coast of California. A couple of embedded weak waves will bring low chances of light precipitation to the area. The first moves through Colorado Tuesday night and Wednesday, which is where the best chances for accumulating snow will reside. Ensembles continue to show light snow amounts, generally less than 1", though the ECMWF is slightly higher, showing up to 2" in Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties. Winds have increased slightly, models now showing gusts up to 25 mph accompanying the snow, so there may be some minor blowing and drifting if snow does accumulate. A dry period will follow for Thursday and Friday. A couple of weak waves over the weekend may result in a few sprinkles and/or flurries, but do not appear impactful at this time. Temperatures will be slightly below normal on Wednesday with the clouds and precipitation, then gradually warm to near or slightly above normal Thursday through Saturday, before cooling off again to slightly below normal on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1006 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. ~10 knot WSW to W winds (late this morning) will veer to the NW and increase to 15-25 knots early this afternoon. Winds will back to the W and decrease to ~10 knots shortly before sunset (~23Z) this evening. Light (~10 knot) W winds will back to the SW (by sunrise) and SSW (late Tue morning).. near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. ~10 knot WSW to W winds (late this morning) will veer to the NW and increase to 15-20 knots during the early-mid afternoon. Winds will back to the W and decrease to ~10 knots shortly before sunset (~23Z) this evening. Light (5-10 knot) W winds will gradually back to the SW by the end of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.