textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70 where warm temps, low humidity and SW winds at 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth.

- Rain showers and isolated storms are possible late this afternoon and evening mainly across the Tri-State border counties. Severe weather is unlikely but there is a 10% or less chance of a rogue wind gusts around 60 mph.

- Breezy S to SW winds and critical fire weather possible over portions of the area, yet again, on Thursday.

- A strong cold front Friday afternoon may drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 101 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Front is pushing south through the area with dew points increasing behind it. This front is forecast to start retreating back north through the day as a warm front. A developing surface low across Colorado will be the dictating feature that will determine when and the northern extent of this. Red Flag Warning will remain but have significant concerns for the duration of the northern and eastern extent of the warning due to timing of the retreating warm front. The strongest of the winds will be to the south of the warm front where winds remain from the WSW and winds gust around 40 mph.

Late this afternoon and evening rainfall chances still look to increase with the warm front, additional lift due to the low and an approaching 500mb shortwave and associated jet streak. The favored area is across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) this evening where high based showers characterized by inverted v soundings are in place. I do have some concern for 50-60+ mph winds with any downdrafts. Winds also may be able to mix from pressure rises on its own as well as RAP and HRRR suggest 6-8mb rises over 3 hours with the GFS being the strongest at 10mb over 3 hours. Rain chances may extend a little further south but again will be dependent on the placement of the low and where the dry slot will set up.

Guidance suggests that deep saturation and perhaps even the most favorable timeframe from light rain will occur early Wednesday morning through the early afternoon as the low continues to move through the area so have increased rain chances through the morning hours. Northwest flow is forecast to be in place through the day on Wednesday with high temperatures in the 70s. Guidance is coming into agreement on a tighter pressure gradient in wake of the low with wind gusts around 30 mph across the entire area. Due to the progression of the low am forecasting these winds to ease up in magnitude as the afternoon goes on.

Thursday, surface troughing is forecast to be in place across the area. A very dry airmass is also forecast to be in place as well along with warm temperatures as high temperatures reach the 80s across the area. The combination of this is leading to high confidence in single digit humidity values for most if not all of the forecast area. Do have concerns for critical fire weather but at this time winds look to be fairly marginal. Am opting to forego any fire weather highlights at this time to ensure that the signal for winds remains and does not degrade which has been the trend over the past few days. Thursday night and into the extended period a strong cold front is forecast to move into the area shifting winds to the north. If there is a fire ongoing that is something to be aware of.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A high amplitude shortwave upper-level trough looks to be making its way across the Rocky Mountains beginning Friday morning, with a modest 50-70 kt jet streak at 500-mb across the Four-Corners Region. A broad surface low pressure is favored to already exist from the Midwest back into Eastern Colorado in association with these upper- level features, and may continue to deepen throughout the day, particularly across portions of the Central and South-Central High Plains where lee cyclogenesis is favored. A strong cold front looks to begin traversing the forecast region sometime Friday afternoon, though there are some issues as to the exact timing. This matters because critical fire weather conditions may be experienced ahead of the cold front. Current forecast guidance shows mid to upper-teen relative humidities (RH) across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas, with wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range possible during the early to mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions could be mitigated with a faster progression of the cold front, or enhanced by a slower progression. LREF guidance currently shows a large amount of variance in wind direction across portions of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado Friday morning, highlighting issues regarding the front's timing. Around 60% of GEFS and EC members show a scenario where the cold front progresses faster, and thus, would mitigate the critical fire weather risk. LREF guidance would seem to support this solution, suggesting at best a 1 in 3 chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Western Kansas, and less for the rest of the region. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Friday afternoon sits at around 5%.

Friday evening may be accompanied by a freeze overnight behind the cold front, in addition to an opportunity for snowfall. Lows are currently forecast in the lower-20s to lower-30s Friday night across the region, with as high as a 60% chance for light snowfall across portions of Northeastern Colorado and far Southwest Nebraska. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance across this zone that the snowfall is measurable (>0.1 inches). Reduced visibilities due to blowing snow may also be experienced, as NBM guidance indicates that sustained winds over 25 mph can't be ruled out. Cooler conditions could last into Saturday, with highs forecast in the mid-50s to lower-60s. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be experienced across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas, where RH values are forecast in the mid to upper-teens, and wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range. NBM guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across this zone, with LREF guidance giving RH values a 50-70% chance. Even so, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed across this zone is only about 5% due to the strength and duration of the cold front from Friday into Saturday, which may keep RH values a bit more elevated.

While deterministic model guidance is a lot more divergent past Sunday morning, GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests ridging is favored across the forecast region Sunday morning through the end of the period. Conditions look to be warm and dry, with highs in the 70s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. RH values continue to be forecast on the lower end, with upper single-digits to lower-teens on Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced all three days, though confidence decreases for Monday and Tuesday due to timing issues of a slow-moving upper-level trough from the west. Sunday's risk seems highest, as LREF guidance suggests a 3 in 4 chance for RH values to meet criteria across most of the area, with NBM guidance yielding over 50% probabilities for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Sunday is around 10%.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A warm front is forecast to retreat through each terminal this afternoon which will lead to a period of light and variable winds; the front is forecast to move through GLD enough that winds are forecast to become a bit more southwesterly with gusts around 25 knots. A developing low pressure system late this afternoon and evening will lead to increase rain chances and continued breezy winds, before the breezy winds develop LLWS will be a concern. Rain chances at favored at KMCK Wednesday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None.