textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- The Flood Watch continues through the day today. Heaviest rainfall amounts today will generally be south of Interstate 70 in Kansas and east of Highway 25 in Kansas and Nebraska. Flash flooding will be possible in those areas with 3-hour rainfall amounts of 1-3" possible through early this evening.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Wind gusts to 60 mph and maybe a few tornadoes are possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1211 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Current observations show rain. Shocking, I know, but it is happening. Currently, there is a large upper low just south of the Four Corners region with an associated area of surface low pressure in the Northern Panhandles region. The combination of the upstream low and the area being on the northern side of the surface low has lead to a large area of stratiform rain across most of the area. Parts near the Tri-State border may miss out or get much lower amounts with as far south as the low is. But, the farther south has kept the dry slot south of the area through the morning. As we go into the afternoon hours, the dry slot should push in from the south and end the rain for parts of the area. The reason why it is in parts is the clearing may allow for some scattered thunderstorms to form instead and try and track north through the area. With the surface low and associated fronts well south of the area, the chance for severe weather has lowered a bit. Still, with the dry slot providing some clearing/heating and generally high values of shear(0- 6km around 45 kts, 0-3km shear around 30 kts), a severe storm may form. If it did form, a quick tornado or a wind gust near 60 mph (with downshear vectors of 50 kts) are the potential threats. This looks to mainly be a threat for those east of Highway 83 and south of Highway 36. If this did occur, the best time would be between 2- 8pm CT.

For the evening and overnight hours, rain chances are forecast to continue. That being said, the overall coverage in the area should be much lower with the upper trough forecast to move over and the surface low beginning to pull away. If the dry slot does not wrap in too much, we should have one last band of precipitation wrapping into the area. This would likely be along and south of I-70 and favor NW Kansas. This potential band would also provide our best chance for flooding. Should the low slowdown and or wrap on itself, the band of precipitation would develop and remain in the same area, providing a chance for 2-5" of rain. With this, the Flood Watch remains in effect through tomorrow afternoon. Some fog may be able to form with low level moisture forecast to remain in place. While the low level cloud cover providing insulation and northerly winds not providing the best upslope component, it wouldn't be unreasonable for some patches of dense fog.

Thursday, the upper trough and surface low should continue to push east. Again, fog and rain may persist as long as the features don't move too quickly. But the consensus is that around 10am, most of the rain should be over with short of maybe some stray bands. With colder air and higher pressure moving in, temperatures should remain in the 60s. Winds will initially start elevated with speeds around 20 gust 35 mph, but should weaken through the day as the pressure gradient relaxes. By Thursday evening, all precipitation should be ended with high pressure in place and the area on the back side of the upper low. Skies should clear across most of the area, though some fog may try and form south of I-70 if enough low level moisture remains in place. If skies do manage to clear, lows are forecast to reach the 40s, with maybe an upper 30 in Eastern Colorado.

Friday, the upper height gradient and surface pressure gradient are both forecast to weaken through the day. This is forecast to provide a mild day for most of the area with temperatures in the 60s and 70s and winds from the south around 5-10 mph. Winds may be a bit stronger in Eastern Colorado if a surface low over the Rockies can progress enough to the east to tighten the gradient. With the lack of forcing and much lower moisture availability, no precipitation is expected and mostly sunny skies are forecast. The relatively clear skies are then forecast to continue into the night and allow temperatures to cool into the 40s again. A few upper 30s may be possible if the winds go more calm instead of from the south at 10- 15 mph.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Overall, the upper level synoptic pattern has not changed significantly. The upper level flow across the Tri-State area remains mainly from the west to northwest from Saturday until around Tuesday. During this period, the jet stream remains to the north near the US/Canada border as various upper level troughs move along the border. Model guidance remains in agreement showing an upper level ridge positioned near the Four Corners region. Compared to yesterday, the Canadian-NH, ECMWF, and GFS have aligned in showing a shortwave trough moving through the area on Tuesday. While models agree on the trough's presence in the region, its exact strength and size remain somewhat uncertain. Currently, Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) for Tuesday has slightly increased to 5-15%. If model trends continue, the trough could further increase Tuesday's precipitation chance depending on its intensity.

Regarding high temperatures for the week, values across the Tri- State region are expected to remain under 80 degrees for the majority of the period. The warmest days are forecast to be Saturday and Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 80s. On both days, these warmer temperatures will primarily be focused in the northwestern portions of the County Warning Area (CWA). Overall, precipitation chances remain quite low from Saturday through Wednesday of next week, with Pops generally around 5-10% each day. Tuesday continues to feature the "highest" potential, with PoPs of 5-15% dependent on the upper level trough strength.

Wind continues to be somewhat of a concern for Monday, with sustained winds currently forecast at 15-25 mph and gusts of 35-45 mph. Guidance indicates that an 850 mb jet streak will likely set up over the region. Some uncertainty remains regarding the location of the highest winds speeds. The LREF favors the majority of the CWA seeing gusts up to 35 mph, while the NBM has the highest gusts up to 45 mph across the northern and western parts of the CWA. Both models do agree on having around a 5-10% probability of gusts exceeding 50 mph across the Colorado counties. At this time, fire weather concerns remain low, as relative humidity values are expected to stay above 25% each day and recent precipitation will likely leave soil moisture fairly saturated.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1101 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... IFR/MVFR conditions are forecast through the entire period. Conditions have been varying and are expected to continue varying with ceilings between 400-2000ft and visibility between 2-8SM. Rain continues to move in from the south and may linger at both sites through much of the period. There may be intermittent breaks, but the event is not forecast to end until close to 15-18Z tomorrow. Keep an eye out for a few thunderstorms, mainly during the 21-08Z time frame. There may be a few periods of VFR conditions and no rain/storms, but keep an eye on the surrounding area as those conditions may be fleeting.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. CO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for COZ090>092. NE...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NEZ079>081.