textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few northerly wind gusts ~45 to 55 mph possible during a cold frontal passage this evening, mainly in eastern CO.

- Conditional potential for a brief severe storm in far eastern portions of the area on Saturday, mainly in Norton, Graham and Gove counties. - A greater portion of the area will see a conditional potential for severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards, should severe storms develop.

UPDATE

Issued at 802 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Winds are decreasing across the area and humidity is increasing, therefore the threat for widespread critical fire weather concerns has ended. Remain aware that a windshift to the north is forecast in the next couple of hours with a cold front.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 430 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Through Saturday: Broad cyclonic flow aloft (on the southern periphery of a broad, near-stationary upper level low in Saskatchewan) will persist over the Northern Plains. Further south, over the Central Plains, a unidirectional /westerly/ flow aloft regime will prevail. In the lower levels, a broad lee cyclone centered over eastern CO at 21Z will slowly track eastward over western KS tonight. Meanwhile, a cold front moving southward through the Nebraska Panhandle (between Chadron and Alliance at 21Z) will continue to progress southward through northeast CO this evening and east-central CO tonight. Further east, in northwest KS and southwest NE, the broad lee cyclone will block/delay the frontal passage until mid-late Sat morning (~12-18Z). A short period of strong northerly winds (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the frontal passage in eastern CO this evening. Isolated high-based showers (virga) currently developing on the Palmer Divide will progress E toward Yuma/Kit Carson counties late this afternoon. With moderate to strong DCAPE (~1300 J/kg), 50-60 degree surface dewpoint depressions and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles.. any high-based showers/virga will be capable of producing -locally- strong winds. In stark contrast to yesterday (when high-based showers were extensive in area/coverage, 50x50 mi or ~2500 square miles), a large/consolidated cold pool is unlikely. Marginal instability (~100-500 J/kg MUCAPE) and low-level convergence/frontogenesis in vicinity of the lee cyclone could facilitate shower development over portions of northwest KS and southwest NE around or shortly after sunrise (~12-15Z) Sat morning, though.. simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST are less than enthusiastic about convective development in the Goodland CWA Saturday morning -and- afternoon. While a very low conditional potential for a brief severe storm will exist in far eastern portions of the area (mainly Graham/Norton) during the afternoon, high-resolution guidance has consistently indicated that deep convection, if any, will likely be confined east of the Goodland CWA.

Sat night-Sun night: Potent shortwave energy in the eastern Pacific will move ashore the southern Pacific Coast (Sat eve- night) and progress E across the 4-Corners/central Rockies (Sun) and Central Plains (Sun night). An associated lee cyclone will develop in southeast CO (Sun) and track eastward across southern KS (Sun night). Guidance suggests that a cooler airmass / inverted surface ridge extending southward into northwest KS will be reinforced by the development of elevated convection ~09-18Z Sun morning.. and that the reinforced cooler airmass will limit the northward extent of the warm sector associated with the developing lee cyclone in southeast CO.. lending considerable uncertainty to severe thunderstorm potential/ development, coverage, mode and evolution during the day on Sun.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Starting off the work week, a surface low is forecast to set up in eastern Kansas and there is a closed low developing off the coast of California. Our region is in a mostly southwest upper-level flow. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s with lows in the 30s. As the day progresses, several embedded shortwaves pass through the region bringing afternoon chances for precipitation. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 30-40% for the western and northern portions of the county warning area (CWA). Rain showers are most likely, but some weak instability could initiate a couple thunderstorms. Whether storms form or not, winds will be a concern Monday as a jet streak sets up over our CWA. Winds are forecast from the north/northwest with gusts of 25-40 mph possible north of the I- 70 corridor.

Tuesday, southwest flow aloft remains in place over the region with a jet streak overhead. The forecast remains fairly consistent from yesterday. Wind gusts are forecast around 30 mph for the northwest CWA and relative humidity values (RH) are forecast in the 20s. The strongest wind gusts do not align with the lowest RH values, so fire weather concerns are minimal for Tuesday.

Precipitation chances remain for the northwest CWA Tuesday afternoon with PoPs ranging from 30-50% due to passing shortwaves and jet support aloft. Low confidence on specific hazards at this time, but sporadic, weak CAPE present in the ECMWF and GFS for eastern Colorado. If a thunderstorm is able to form, hail could be possible.

Wednesday on, we have potential for a more active pattern. Expect afternoon and evening chances for showers and thunderstorms as the CWA remains under southwest flow aloft with jet support and passing shortwaves.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 445 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight. MVFR to IFR ceilings (~1,000 ft AGL) are anticipated to rapidly develop in the wake of a cold frontal passage around sunrise (~11-14Z Sat) and persist through the afternoon. Breezy (20-30 G 35 knot) S to SSE winds will persist through this evening then weaken and become variable overnight (~06Z) as a surface low in CO tracks eastward over northwest KS. Light/variable winds may persist for several hours. Winds will shift to the N and increase to 15-25 knots an hour or two on either side of sunrise (~11-14Z Sat) and remain breezy through the afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight. MVFR to IFR ceilings (~1,000 ft AGL) are anticipated to rapidly develop in the wake of a cold frontal passage around sunrise (~11-13Z Sat) and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. SSE-SE winds will increase to 15-25 knots late this afternoon and further strengthen to 20-25 knots with gusts to ~35 knots early this evening. Winds will decrease to 15-25 knots late this evening (~03Z) and become light/variable ~06Z as a surface low in CO tracks eastward over northwest KS/southwest NE. Light/variable winds may persist for several hours. Winds will shift to the N or NE and increase to 15-25 knots an hour or two on either side of sunrise (~11-14Z Sat) and remain breezy through the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.