textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A low chance for a late afternoon/evening severe storm will persist over the weekend. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and quarter size hail are the main threats.

- Chances for severe weather continue Sunday and maybe into Monday. The overall chance is 10% and favors western portions of the area. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail around an inch are the main hazards.

- Warming through the weekend, with highs in the upper 90's to lower 100's on Sat-Sun.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1158 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Current observations show the upper ridge in place over the Plains with a surface low pressure system over the area. While the upper ridge axis is slightly east of the area, we still have southerly/westerly low level flow bringing in warmer air. With this, most of the area had warmed into the 90s during the morning hours. Temperatures around 100 remain forecast for this afternoon with mostly clear skies.

That being said, the presence of the low pressure system and some low level moisture will give us chances for storms this afternoon and evening. Storms may develop as early as 1-3pm MT for counties along the Colorado border, likely along the convergence zone created by the low. These initial storms would likely struggle to maintain themselves in an environment with 0-6km shear around 20-30 kts. So while unlikely to be severe at this point, keep an eye out for small hail and wind gusts in the 40-60 mph range. The better chance for storms will be this evening with storms that develop along the Front Range and Palmer Divide. The 0-6km shear is forecast to increase as the surface low/front sag a little further south with values around 35-45 kts. With mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km, any storm that forms should have a better shot of holding together. The main thing keeping POPs low is the instability may be less than 1000 J/kg if too much dry air filters in from the west. Otherwise, storms that form should push through the area with a strong convergence zone along the front and a low level jet ahead of the front providing extra support. Wind gusts to 70 mph are the main concern as storms are forecast to cluster, but maybe a stronger embedded storm could produce hail around an inch. With the precipitation and additional cloud cover, lows in the eastern parts of the area will likely be in the 70s. Those who see breaks in the cloud cover earlier in the night should cool into the 60s.

Tomorrow, the upper ridge is forecast to slide further east while an upper trough moves into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. At the surface, the main low and front are forecast to slide southeast of the area. However, low pressure is forecast to remain in place across much of the region and keep winds on the lighter side. It is also forecast to keep some of the heat in the area with temperatures warming into the 90s and 100s.

Storms are possible again during the afternoon and evening hours as the upper trough axis swings through the region. While we have the forcing and mid to upper level moisture streaming in from the southwest, low level moisture is forecast to be lacking and keeping our overall instability low. This is forecast to lead to mostly sub- severe showers and storms that move in from the southwest. There could still be a couple instances of wind gusts up to 70 mph, but the overall severe coverage should be limited. With the upper trough and surface low over the area, storms may be able to move across the area and through most of the nighttime hours. The chances for this will increase if the frontal boundary retrogrades north a bit and allows the low level jet to nose into the area.

Monday, the forecast is for the upper trough over the Northern Plains to remain roughly in place while another trough starts moving onto the West Coast. This is forecast to keep the upper ridging over the east and allow for slightly cooler temperatures with highs generally in the 90s. Winds are also forecast to remain light with broad low pressure remaining in place across the region.

We have yet another chance for showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours as we remain in southwest flow aloft and continue to have mid to upper level moisture stream over the area. That being said, it looks like the overall forcing over the area is going to be a bit weaker and limit storm potential and coverage. Should storms form, they will likely form southwest of the area before moving in. The shear is forecast to be around 40 kts, but instability is currently a bit lacking both with CAPE around 1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km. Should this hold, there may be one to two instances of severe weather with both large hail and wind gusts around 60-70 mph possible. However, the overall chance is less than 10%. There is a chance that the upper trough over the Plains mag dig south and try and provide a bit more forcing. Even then, chances currently don't look like they would be much higher. The main change is that storms could cover more of the area instead of likely staying over the western half.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 206 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Tuesday through Thursday are forecast to have roughly the same pattern, with upper ridging over the southeast and an upper trough over the northwest. This will keep the area in southwest flow aloft and provide minimal air mass change. As such, temperatures remain forecast to reach the 90s during the daytime, and the 60's/70s during the night. Winds will also likely remain around 5-15 mph through much of the period with the low pressure lingering over the area. Storms will be possible each day, likely forming along the higher terrain to the west and pushing east towards the area. As such, storms chances will generally favor Eastern Colorado, with lesser chances further east. Most storms should be sub-severe, but a severe storm or two may be possible like the prior days.

Next weekend is when there is more divergence in what may happen. The currently forecast and likely scenario is that the pattern remains roughly the same with highs in the 90s, light winds, and afternoon evening storm chances. The storm chances may be a bit higher as more robust shortwaves may push through with the upper trough potentially deepening.

The other scenario is that the trough ejects east and pushes through the Plains. With this, a strong cold front would likely push through Friday or Saturday and give the area a good chance for storms and severe weather. Once the front passes, colder air would then filter in from the north and likely give us a break from the 90s. Storm chances would also likely be minimal with the drier and cooler air over the area. This scenario currently has a 25-35% chance of occurring.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites through the period. Winds are forecast to be light and variable through about 06-09Z with a low pressure system over the area. After that, winds should stabilize from the northwest at 5-10 kts. Between 21-09Z, there is a chance that a thunderstorm or two could move over either of the terminals. The storms would likely move in from the west/southwest if they form. Be alert for wind gusts of 40-60 kts should a storm pass over. Finally, the last condition of note is low level wind shear around 400-600ft with the low level jet strengthening to around 45 kts. The chance that either site is impacted is low as the front should keep the jet just south of the terminal, but the best window for low level wind shear is around 03-09Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.