textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A widely scattered storm or two is possible this afternoon into the early evening.

- Fog is possible again tonight into Saturday morning. Be alert for patches of dense fog.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Saturday through Monday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 100s with heat index values in the mid 100s. Limit time outdoors and stay hydrated including humans and livestock.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1246 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

High pressure is starting to build and expand across the western CONUS. At the surface a developing low is seen on RAP Analysis across southeast Colorado. This may be the focus for a rogue afternoon storm or two this afternoon across southern portions of the forecast area. Severe weather would be unlikely but a wet microburst could not be completely ruled out with surface based CAPE around 3500-4000 j/kg, high DCAPE in excess of 1500 j/kg and weak shear and steering flow along with high PWATS of 1.5-1.6. HRRR, NAM and RAP all show a Theta E boundary which looks to be roughly in the vicinity of where some guidance is showing some potential storm initiation so have opted to introduce a 15-20% chance of storms into the forecast for a few hours late this afternoon. Guidance has come in a bit warmer than previously forecasted on temperatures for today so have increased temperatures a few degrees into the mid to upper 90s. Moist air remain across most of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska so do have some concerns about heat indices reaching the mid 100s but should remain rather short lived and spotty in nature so will not plan to chase with a heat advisory. Light winds of 5-10 mph through the day will also provide little relief from the heat. Little relief in temperatures is forecast overnight as well with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Easterly winds are forecast to remain in place overnight. Am seeing some hint of more food potential across Red Willow, Decatur, Norton and Graham counties. Dense fog could again be a concern as well as nearly all guidance has high surface to 1km AGL Mixing Ratios.

Saturday and Sunday, heat will be the main story. Ridging and high pressure continues to strengthen across the Rockies. 594 dam also expands on top of the area which increases confidence in widespread triple digits with the warmest being on Sunday as the center of the high is forecast to be directly over the area and even some guidance suggesting a stronger high pressure. Do have some concerns that our current forecast dew points may be a little on the high side as surface to 30mb AGL mixing dew points are around 10 degrees lower which with deep mixing in place in this set up does seem reasonable. However we do continue with our southeast winds on Saturday which could help keep dew points a little higher than what is being suggested. Sunday our 850mb winds turn more to the southwest which does favor the potential for the warmest temperatures of this time period. Mixing dew points are also a little higher than on Saturday as well. This does raise my concern for heat indices around 105+ degrees for all of NW Kansas as well as SW Nebraska. High to extreme values of Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures along with a large area of high NWS Heat Risk values does bring concern as well for heat related impacts especially over multiple days. With county fair season upon us and referencing the Kansas Mesonet Animal Comfort Index, those values do get solidly into the Heat Danger Range as well. Due to this and newest data giving heat indices around 105 degrees across Greeley and Wichita counties have expanded the Heat Advisory across the rest of NW Kansas. Low temperatures during this time frame provide minimal relief as well with temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Far eastern portions of the forecast area may even struggle to fall below 80 degrees for a low temperature as well.

As mentioned above with the potential for lower dew points there is concern for elevated fire weather conditions as winds are forecast to be sustained around 15-20 mph from the southeast for multiple hours during the afternoon. If the dew points can become as low as what the NAM and RAP mixing dew points suggest then briefly critical fire weather conditions could become possible for those along and west of Highway 27. Confidence for this scenario is only around 20-30% at this time.

Precipation chances for this weekend are pretty slim. Sunday does catch my eye some as 500 and 700mb vorticity moves through the area during the afternoon hours. This may be enough for some pop up afternoon storms but with continued weak flow and subsidence from the high pressure, should any storms develop they should be relatively short lived. If storms could persist a bit longer especially across eastern Colorado on Sunday evening, then they could have the potential to last through the night as the low level jet increases. Will keep the forecast dry for now for this weekend but will be something that will need to be monitored.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Synoptically, the ridge that has been in place the past few days is likely to stay nearly stationary over the next week. Throughout the week, Guidance is showing there a few shortwave troughs that will move through the region.

Monday looks to be the hottest day of the week with highs reaching the low 100s. The highest temperatures that could be seen are 105- 107 degrees. These temperatures look to remain east of KS Hwy 27. Due to these high temperatures a Heat Advisory is in place for all of the Kansas and Nebraska Counties at this time. Winds look to mainly remain from the north-northeast with gusts up to 20-25 kts.

There are some precipation chances on Monday afternoon/evening. Looking at PoPs there is a 30-45% for the majority of the County Warning Area (CWA). Looking at Guidance, there does seem to be a shortwave and a boundary that will move in from the north and continue south. However some disagreement on the boundary itself. The ECMWF and Canadian both have the boundary, but the GFS does not. As for Precipitation there is agreement with the NBM and LREF that there is a 20-30% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipation, for Yuma County in Colorado. Looking at ingredients needed for severe storms there are some indications there could be storms but on the marginal side.

Moving to the rest of the week, starting Tuesday temperatures begin to "cool" down to the high 90s. Precipitation chances return again in the afternoon and evening with PoP's reaching up to 60% in Yuma County, in Colorado. For the majority of the rest of the CWA there is values in the 20-40% range. For the extended part of the week, the highs still remain in the 90s, with the exception of Thursday highs cool down to the high 80s and low 90s. PoPs each day hangout around 20-40% for the majority of the CWA. One feature to keep an eye on is on Thursday there looks to be a shortwave with an associated surface low that could bring more weather chances. However, given this is almost a week out a lot can change.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1041 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Stratus and fog is taking it's sweet time getting out of MCK but should be out by the start of the 18Z TAF period. After that clear skies and light winds are forecast through the rest of the day and most of the night. There is another signal for fog and stratus currently favoring MCK at this time. Some dense fog may be possible as well again. Confidence is high enough to introduce IFR conditions for MCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.