textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and near average to slightly above average temperatures expected over the weekend.

- Dry and warm conditions are forecast to continue into next week, with high temperatures generally in the 70s and 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Current observations have a large upper ridge over much of the Western United States with more zonal flow going into the Plains. At the surface, an area of high pressure has been setting in over the High Plains. This is helping bring in some colder air, which should allow most of the area to cool into the upper 40s. For the daytime hours, this is forecast to generally keep winds lighter around 10 mph as the pressure gradient weakens. There may still be a few gusts to 20 mph during the afternoon as we mix out. Even with sunny skies under the high pressure, the colder air mass should keep high temperatures in the 70s.

Sunday night, the colder air mass should begin to shift off to the east. Between the shifting air mass and resulting 10-15 mph winds from a slight increase in the pressure gradient, temperatures should stay in the 50s through much of the early morning hours.

Monday, the area is forecast to remain under northwest flow aloft with the upper ridge remaining over the Western United States and a trough digging more into the Eastern United States. The area is forecast to be on the borderline between the weak flow with the ridging extending across the south, and the stronger flow caused by the two features. This along with a surface low developing in the High Plains ahead of a shortwave is forecast to lead to somewhat strong winds with speeds forecast to be around 20-25 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph. Most of the area should have relative humidity above 30% with the low level moisture in place, preventing critical fire weather conditions. However, Eastern Colorado may be able to dip into the 20s or even the teens depending on how much drier air can move in with the developing surface low. Some critical conditions are not out of the question, but would likely be too short to warrant a Red Flag Warning. We'll see how things evolve the next 24 hours. Otherwise, highs should be a bit warmer with the southerly low level flow allowing for warm air advection. The current forecast is for most of the area to reach the 70s and 80s, generally near 80.

Monday night, the surface low is forecast to spread more east into the Plains. As it does so, it is expected to broaden and weaken the winds. This should allow for a relatively calm night with winds becoming lighter and clear skies. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Synoptically, for Tuesday through next Sunday, our upper level flow remains mainly from the northwest for the majority of the period. Starting around Wednesday, our flow will begin to transition to mainly zonal as a weak upper level ridge passes through. By Saturday, as the ridge makes its way to the Eastern CONUS, our flow will transition to come from the southwest through Sunday. Friday through Sunday, Guidance indicates potential shortwaves moving through the County Warning Area (CWA). Sunday is where Guidance begins to diverge on the upper level pattern. The majority of the long range models show an upper level trough beginning to move into the region, but guidance presents multiple solutions regarding the strength and trajectory. With this being roughly seven days out, it will be something to monitor as we move through the week.

Overall, high temperatures across the Tri-State area should remain in the 70s and 80s. Tuesday is currently forecast to be the warmest day of the period, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Guidance, including the Canadian-NH and GFS, show a boundary or front moving through the region from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. As this boundary moves through, temperatures should "cool" down to the upper 70s and low 80s before Saturdays highs briefly warm back to the low to mid 80s. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are forecast to remain under 5% throughout the period. However, depending on the strength of any shortwaves that pass through, PoPs could potentially increase.

At this time, there is a low potential for fire weather concerns during this period, Tuesday will be the primary day to monitor. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to drop around 20-25% for areas west of KS Hwy 27, with winds of 5-15 mph and gusts up to 25- 30 mph. On Tuesday morning, winds should start out from the southwest before shifting clockwise to the east by the afternoon. While this does not reach critical fire weather, it is something to keep an eye on especially with the potential boundary/front moving through which could lead to lower RH values. For the rest of the period, RH values mostly stay above 25%, with sustained winds of 5- 15 mph and gusts in the 15-15 mph range. Friday through Sunday, breezier afternoons with gusts reaching 30-40 mph are possible.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1014 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Through the afternoon and overnight, southeasterly winds in the 5-17 kts range are expected. Around sunrise Monday, winds will become south-southeasterly and by noon will be gusting around 30 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.