textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect for Kit Carson/Cheyenne CO and Sherman, Wallace and Greeley KS until 10 AM MST Sunday.

- Scattered light rain showers this afternoon and tonight, with best chance of measurable precipitation south of I-70.

UPDATE

Issued at 435 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Persistent southeasterly/upslope low-level flow has led to stratus development and steady moistening throughout the day. At 2330Z, dewpoint depressions were already < 4F in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties and at Goodland/KGLD, ceilings have steadily lowered from 1,600 ft AGL at 21Z to 300 ft AGL at 2330Z. Every hourly run of the HRRR today has indicated / is indicating that dense fog will develop along/south of I-70 in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties at some point this evening and that, once it does, it will persist until late Sunday morning (~16-18Z Sun). Scattered showers and breezy winds may initially delay fog development and/or render it 'patchy and intermittent', however, winds will continue to weaken and showers will inevitably end from west to east [in eastern CO] later this evening.

With the above in mind, atmospheric 'probable cause' is adequate enough to warrant a preemptive Dense Fog Advisory for Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado and Sherman, Wallace and Greeley counties in Kansas, in effect until 10 AM MST (17Z) Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

No significant changes. Forecast on track.

Through Sunday Night: Breezy SSE winds will decrease late this afternoon. Winds will further weaken to 10-15 mph this evening and remain light through Sun night. Scattered light rain showers this afternoon and evening will end from west to east after midnight, with measurable rainfall largely confined south of I-70. Dense fog may develop over eastern CO and portions of western KS late this evening into Sunday morning, mainly along and west of Hwy 25. Fog, where present, could persist through late Sun morning. Widespread cloud cover and an unseasonably moist airmass will lead to an atypically small diurnal temperature range, with temperatures in the upper 30's to mid 40's this afternoon through Sun night.

Mon-Mon night: An amplifying upper level ridge over the central CONUS will foster clear skies and a modest warming trend while breezy (15-25 G 35 mph) south winds.. associated with a tightening MSLP to 850 mb height gradient on the eastern periphery of a deepening lee trough in CO.. will maintain an unseasonably moist airmass over the region. Expect daytime highs in the 50's and overnight (Tue morning) lows in the 30's to lower 40's.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

A more active weather pattern is in store for the Tri-State area next week. Synoptically, we begin with a ridge centered over the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. This system looks to be positively tilted as a longwave trough moves across the western CONUS and pushes said ridge eastward. Southwest flow aloft should result as our county warning area (CWA) sits right in between the two Rossby waves. On Wednesday, the aforementioned trough deamplifies quite a bit, sending a fairly strong upper-level jet through our region. Guidance is a little more uncertain after this process but most ensembles have weak ridging that forms Thursday before another trough moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest. This next troughing pattern brings with it another closed low aloft late next week that will define conditions for our area, dependent on the track and strength of the system overall. Models are still in disagreement on these two parameters at the moment.

There will be two opportunities for rain during this four-day period. The first of which presents via a surface low that is forecasted to move north of the CWA on Wednesday with trough #1. There should be a cold front with this system but guidance currently has dew points in the 30s after it passes so any precipitation would be pre-frontal. At the moment, there is low confidence of rain with this first system as Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) stand at around 10-20%. Trough #2 should be accompanied by another low- pressure system on Friday that could bring another front through the Tri-State area. Confidence on rainfall is surprisingly high given the uncertain track of the low. PoPs are currently 50-70% throughout the entire CWA but trends regarding evolution of this system will need to be monitored heading into next week.

Another potential result from this upbeat synoptic pattern is boosted surface winds. Two different upper-level jets are forecasted to influence our area, ushering in breezy conditions at the surface. As the first jet passes overhead Tuesday, 20-35 mph southerly winds are likely. Gusts up to 40 mph will be possible too, especially in eastern parts of the CWA. Wednesday's winds should be just as strong, but with the stronger gusts located in the Colorado counties as well as east of US-83. There is a low chance(20%) of gusts up to 45 mph on Wednesday. Winds die down Thursday after the first system departs but 10-20 mph is still in the realm of possibilities. Friday's system should bring more windy conditions with a general 20- 30 anticipated. Gusts in the 45-50 mph will be possible in eastern Colorado.

Temperatures are likely to be average or even slightly above average for this time of the year. Highs in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday should warm into 60s Wednesday. Thursdays high temps sit in the 52- 60 degree range and Friday shows consistent 60s as well. Nighttime lows will start warmer on Wednesday in the 35-42 range but will fall quite a bit after the first cold front Thursday morning with 30s expected across the board. Some locations in the western CWA may drop into the 20s and other locations east of Colby may only fall into the upper 30s. Nevertheless, Friday morning low should bounce back a bit into the upper 30s/low 40s. Fire weather should remain a non-factor for the time being with RHs generally above 40%. Fog may be possible with RHs reaching 100% Wednesday and Friday mornings.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 445 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Goodland: LIFR to VLIFR conditions will prevail through mid- late Sunday morning. Modest improvement to IFR is expected to occur during the late morning to early afternoon, with further improvement to MVFR expected during the mid-late afternoon. SSE to SE winds at 18-23 knots gusting to 28-33 knots late this afternoon will decrease to 10-15 knots this evening and overnight. SE or S winds at 10-15 knots will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.

McCook: MVFR ceilings are expected to deteriorate to IFR late this evening and overnight. IFR conditions are likely to prevail through late Sunday morning, followed by modest improvement to MVFR during the afternoon. Light (10-15 knot) SE winds this evening into Sunday morning will become southerly during the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST Sunday for KSZ013-027-041. CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST Sunday for COZ091-092. NE...None.