textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog, along with a few light rain showers are forecast to clear from west to east through the morning and afternoon hours. Locations along and east of Highway 83 may not clear out today.

- Light rain/snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning. A few patches of dense fog may also develop.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 222 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2024

Observations early this morning showed an upper trough drifting southeast through the Panhandles region with broad surface low pressure across the region. Observations also had fog across a majority of the area with a few scattered rain showers that were producing around a hundredth or two of accumulation. With most of the lower level flow from the south/southeast, the fog and light rain showers should continue through the morning. As the surface and upper low track east, the winds are shifting to out of the west and bringing some drier air into the area. Through the morning and afternoon, the drier air is forecast to shift east, bringing clearer skies to the area. The current forecast has skies clearing to around Highway 83. This will allow locations west of Highway 83 to warm into the mid 40's to lower 50's and see sunshine towards the late morning and afternoon hours. East of Highway 83, it looks like the cloud cover (and potentially some fog) will linger through the day. This would keep this area more in the 30's and maybe low 40's.

Tonight, skies are forecast to start clear for locales west of Highway 83, but become cloudy overnight as another upper trough slides through the Eastern Rockies and the Plains, bringing mid to high level moisture from the west. There is a low chance for a few sprinkles and light rain showers to move through if the low levels can saturate. For those east of Highway 83, if enough surface moisture lingers, there is the possibility for more dense fog during the evening and overnight hours. Lows are forecast to be in the 20's and 30's.

Tomorrow, inbetween the trough axis that passes through Thursday night and the next trough axis late Friday, we have a chance to dry out and warm up. Cloud cover and any fog are again forecast to burn off from west to east, but this time with the possibility of clearing out across the entire area. As long as the cloud cover is gone by the late morning hours, high temperatures should warm into the 50's. Winds are forecast to be around 10-15 mph from the northwest with a semi-broad pressure gradient.

Tomorrow night, yet another round of moisture is forecast to move through the area with a small upper trough axis swinging through the area. There is a chance for a few showers as a slightly deeper center in the surface low pressure could form with this trough axis and put the area on the wrap around side. Will need to see though how far south the upper trough and surface low push, with the better chance for any rain showers to develop generally south of Interstate 70. Fog looks to be a little less likely as the current track of the surface low doesn't favor enough low level moisture getting pulled in for development similar to the prior days. Lows are forecast to be around 30 with the cloud cover in the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 215 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2024

Saturday-Sunday: Long range guidance continues to indicate that NW-WNW flow aloft will prevail over the region this weekend.. on the eastern periphery of a modest ridge over the Intermountain West and central-northern Rockies. Expect a warming trend and above average to well-above average temperatures.. with highs ranging from the mid-upper 50's (Saturday) to upper 50's and lower 60's (Sunday). For reference/comparison, average high temperatures in late December are in the lower 40's (~40-43F). While small amplitude waves in NW-WNW flow aloft may yield bouts of mid-upper level cloud cover (augmented by orographic cirrus, perhaps) and virga in the immediate lee of the Rockies.. measurable precipitation is not anticipated.

Monday-Wednesday: Expect a transition to a more seasonal (winter) synoptic pattern over North America early next week, a pattern characterized by the presence of a large, modestly deep upper level low (500 mb heights ~525-530 decameters) over central-eastern Canada and a powerful (125-150 knot) upper level jet over the central-southern CONUS.. a jet extending from the Pacific Coast to the Eastern Seaboard. This type of pattern often results in dynamic/volatile weather over the central and/or eastern CONUS. In the immediate lee of the Rockies (Goodland CWA), the aforementioned pattern transition will manifest as an abrupt transition to colder (albeit near-average) temperatures and breezy to strong NNW-NW winds on Monday, followed by near-average temperatures and light winds on Tuesday and Wednesday. Broadly speaking, one would expect a slightly above average potential for precipitation in this period. For context, dry conditions would be considered 'average' precipitation. At present, guidance suggests that precipitation will largely be relegated to portions of the Northern Plains (WY-SD-NE).. areas firmly situated on the northern periphery (cyclonic shear side) of the aforementioned upper level jet.. on Monday.

Thursday-Friday: Virtually all long range guidance indicates that a pronounced omega block will develop over North America late next week.. a pattern characterized by pronounced ridging over the western CONUS and pronounced troughing (cyclonic flow aloft) over the eastern CONUS.. a pattern often associated with Arctic outbreaks in the eastern US. In such a setup, the High Plains would be situated directly inbetween the pronounced ridge (to the west) and the pronounced trough (to the east), a region that's [1] typically dominated by synoptic subsidence and [2] typically on the far western fringe of intruding Arctic airmasses. From a pattern recognition standpoint, one would expect dry conditions and near average temperatures in the lee of the central Rockies (Goodland County Warning Area).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 935 PM MST Wed Dec 25 2024

KGLD...sub VFR conditions due to stratus and fog are forecast from taf issuance through 17z with light and variable winds. After 18z, VFR conditions return with winds becoming southerly at speeds under 10kts.

KMCK...sub VFR conditions due to stratus and fog are forecast from taf issuance through 20z with light and variable winds. There is a possibility of light rainfall or drizzle. After 21z, VFR conditions return with winds from the south under 10kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ090-091. NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for NEZ079>081.