textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are again forecast this evening with damaging winds up to 75 mph possible. Blowing dust may be possible as well during the evening limiting visibility to a mile or less. Heavy rainfall may continue through the night leading to nuisance flooding concerns. - Storm chances continue through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1203 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Current observations show boundaries draped across the area from storms earlier in the evening. While the main batches of storms have been west and north of the area, these outflow boundaries may kick up a few showers and storms through the remainder of the night. Winds should also switch to be more out of the north behind the main outflow boundary that is slowly progressing south through the area. Even with the northerly winds though, temperatures will likely be slow to cool with the convection and cloud cover in the area. With this, most of the area will likely be in the 70s. Closer to sunrise, more of the area may be able to drop into the 60s as skies clear up a bit.

Today should be a bit cooler compared to the prior days as the low likely with shift a little more east and south, allowing for some colder air to trickle in. Additional cloud cover from early storms may further help keep temperatures a bit cooler. For locales around the Tri-State border, temperatures may peak in the 80s, while much of the rest of the area reaches the 90s. There may be a few 100s around Graham and Gove counties depending on how far the low is able to shift. Winds should be from the northeast around 10-15 mph as long as the low shifts south. Otherwise, winds may be a bit more easterly through the day.

During the late afternoon and evening hours, we are forecast to have another chance for showers and storms for a majority of the area. The surface low is still forecast to be close enough to provide some moisture and lift while a shortwave moves through the upper level flow. This combined should allow showers and storms to develop both west and south of the area. The western storms will have a high chance (70-90%) of making it to counties along the Colorado border, aided by the advancing shortwave. The southern storms moving into the rest of the area are a lower chance (40-70%) as the low may shift enough that the storms form too far away to sustain in the area or not have enough moisture remain. If both lines do hold together though, then most if not all of the area could see rain this evening and early tonight. There will be another chance for severe weather though with 0-6km shear around 30 kts, MUCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg, and mid level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km supportive of hail around 1-1.5". Hail will likely end up below an inch in most storms though due to a high melting level around 16000-18000ft again. Wind still remains the biggest concern, especially with the environment similar to yesterday and the slew of 60-75 mph reports that came in north of the area from the clustering storms. It wouldn't be unreasonable for another batch of 60-75 mph gusts should the clusters push into the area. This also does raise concern for blowing dust, especially if the storms move through before the inversion sets up and lowers the weaker stability. The tornado threat remains low with the bases of the storms, but a brief one may be possible if there is an organized convergence line. The storms activity could persist all the way through the night if it does move into the area, but the forecast is for storms to end around 3-4am CT as the shortwave continues to push east. If the storms do stick around longer, the flooding threat will increase (though flash flooding may be possible with the initial storms by themselves). The main issue is that storms may train over the same area while producing heavy rainfall due to the high melting level and long/skinny CAPE. This is especially true if an MCS develops and wraps storms over the same area. Otherwise, skies would slowly clear a bit and allow temperatures to fall into the 60s and 70s again.

Friday, the surface low is forecast to become a bit broader across the Plains while shifting a bit more to the east. With this and the deepening of the upper trough over the West Coast, temperatures across the area are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s with 100s finally not in the picture (hopefully). Winds will likely be on the lighter side as well from the east at 5-10 mph. If the low deepens again near the area, then winds may be more from the southeast around 10- 15 mph.

For the late afternoon and evening hours, more showers and storms are forecast in a roughly similar fashion to Thursday. The main uncertainty is if the low will stay broad and east, or deepen near the area. If it stays broad and east, storms and showers are more likely just for counties along the Colorado border due to a shortwave in the southwest upper flow. Otherwise, the entire area may see storms in two batches again. Severe weather would be possible, though the cooling temperatures and weaker surface forcing may lower the severe potentially a bit compared to Thursday. Otherwise, hazards and concerns will be pretty similar.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 213 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The long term period begins with approximately southwesterly flow overhead at 500-mb Saturday morning. A shortwave trough embedded in this flow looks to support a surface low pressure traversing the forecast region during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms are possible along a cold front behind the low. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Saturday across nearly the entire area. Currently, thunderstorms are not expected to become severe, as GFS and EC model soundings show less than 30 kts of sfc-500mb vertical wind shear across the forecast area. LREF guidance is in support of this solution, suggesting a 1 in 3 chance or less that vertical wind shear exceeds 30 kts. If severe thunderstorms were able to occur, they would be most likely across Red Willow County in Nebraska and Norton County in Kansas, particularly if a 500-mb jet streak to the north can move into this region. However, confidence remains low (around 5%) that severe thunderstorms will occur Saturday. Highs are currently forecast in the 80s and lower 90s, save for eastern parts of Graham and Gove Counties in Kansas where highs may reach into the mid 90s.

GEFS and EC ensembles are in support of a ridge building in throughout the day Saturday from the South-Central Plains all the way to the Pacific Northwest. This ridge looks to be fully developed by Sunday morning, and is expected to be in place through at least Monday night. The ridge axis would initially be just west of the forecast area, with a surface high downstream in the Dakotas and Midwest. Northerly/northeasterly winds on Sunday associated with this surface high may allow high temperatures to drop into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the forecast area Sunday and Monday. Thunderstorms may continue during this period as well. A surface low across the Four-Corners Region would support southerly flow across the Southern Plains, meeting the northerly flow in Kansas to create a convergence zone. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance continues to show a 60-80% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain Sunday, but drops to a 30-50% chance on Monday when the surface high to the north moves into the Midwest and allows southerly flow to dominate in Kansas. Even so, LREF guidance continues to show a 25% chance or less that vertical wind shear will exceed 30 kts across the forecast region, limiting the severe risk. Confidence in severe weather occurring either Sunday or Monday is less than 5%.

Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is in support of the ridge fully moving overhead and remaining in place for the remainder of the long term period, with troughing remaining offshore to the west. However, GFS and EC deterministics suggest that the trough may move in faster, moving into the Rockies/Northern High Plains Region by Tuesday night. This is represented in the 500-mb height spread guidance which shows a large amount of spread developing over this region going into Tuesday. If this trough can move in, a surface low could develop in the North-Central Plains, establishing southwesterly flow across the forecast area. It would then move southeastward with time, crossing the forecast area Wednesday. If the ridge is able to remain in place during this period, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s could be expected Tuesday and Wednesday. However, if the trough can move inland Tuesday and develop a surface low, conditions on Tuesday could be hotter, with drier conditions as well. A cold front would then be possible on Wednesday as the low crosses the area. LREF guidance is about 75-80% in favor of the ridge remaining in place during this period, which would suggest conditions simply remaining warm.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected initially along low level wind shear through around 11Z. After 11Z, a wave of low stratus is expected to affect the terminal through at least 20z. Winds will be mostly out of the northeast for the TAF period, but around 03Z, showers are possible at the terminal along with a wind shift to out of the southwest.

For KMCK, winds will be mostly out of the northeast for the TAF period. Conditions will initially start out as VFR but low stratus is expected to move in around 13Z and last through at least 20Z. Low confidence in thunderstorms affecting the terminal towards the end of the period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.