textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Saturday through Monday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 100s with heat index values in the mid 100s. Limit time outdoors and stay hydrated including humans and livestock.

- A Heat Advisory is also in effect for Sunday for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado as air temperatures and heat indices around 105 degrees are forecast.

- Showers and storm potential returns Monday and through most of next week. Strong to severe storms are possible Monday with damaging winds currently the main threat.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Ridging continues to amplify across the region along with a strengthening 598 dam high across western and southern portions of the forecast area. Which is actually a bit stronger than what some model guidance suggests which is interesting Today begins our well advertised multiple day heat event as most of the area is already in the 90s by 10am MT. The temperature forecast mainly remains on track with only a slight increase in air temperatures based on recent data as most if not all of the area should reach the triple digits. 30 AGL dew point forecasts continues to indicate some drier air that could be mixed down during the afternoon with dew points falling into the 40s mainly west of a Tribune to Oberlin line which which would help keep heat indices closer if not slightly below the air temperature. East of that line will most likely see heat indices values of 105-110. The dry air mixing down does seem to be a bit reasonable as winds on the northern periphery of the 598 dam high are forecast to increase some this afternoon becoming sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts around 25 mph possible. If this does come to fruition then elevated to even locally, briefly critical fire weather conditions could be realized across mainly Kit Carson and Yuma counties.

Very warm night is forecast for the area as guidance, not has been trending warmer with overnight low temperatures as winds are forecast to turn to the southwest. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast which will provide minimal relief from the heat.

Sunday, center of the high pressure sets up directly over the area. Sunday continues to have the potential for the warmest day of the period but still remain some question as to just how hot it will get. ECMWF is a little weaker on strength on the high with it being around 588-590 dam versus the RAP and NAM around 594-596. The RAP and NAM scenarios would support widespread 105+ degree temperatures and potentially as warm as 110. The ECMWF on the other hand would be more in the 100-105 range. The other change from 24 hours ago is that the surface to 30mb AGL dew points are lower. If this trend does continue then heat index values may not be quite as high originally thought. Winds are however, forecast to be weaker than today which would then lead to a bit more of a difficult time for the drier air to mix down. For the Heat Advisory, I did issue a second one for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado to hopefully avoid confusion due to the longer duration one for NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Heat index values may be a bit marginal but due to known outdoor events across Yuma county and Wet Bulb Globe temperatures approaching the extreme category opted to go ahead and issue mainly an impact based Heat Advisory; plus air temperatures will be very close to 105 degrees themselves. Similar to the tonight, minimal and perhaps even less recovery for the overnight temperatures as they are forecast to remain in the upper 60s to upper 70s and perhaps even some localized low 80s.

Rainfall confidence for Sunday has fallen some for the afternoon and the 500mb and 700mb vorticity maxima look weaker may remain to the west of the CWA. RAP and NAM both continue to indicate an increase in 700-500mb moisture developing in eastern Colorado and expanding into the Tri-State border area so am opting to bring in some 10% rain chances for this potential. Should these develop dry lightning would be the main concern which could have the potential to start fires along with values could be as low as the mid teens. Very localized wind gusts up to 50 mph could also accompany any collapsing cells. Am noticing however another lobe of vorticity moving south from Nebraska into the area during the overnight hours. This could have the potential to sustain itself some as well as the vorticity lobe is on the nose of an increasing 850mb jet.

Monday, currently appears to be another hot day for the area and the final day of our intense heat. High temperatures are again forecast to be in the triple digits with a 594 dam high over the area but 850mb temperatures are a tad lower than today or Sunday. Southerly 850mb flow is forecast to shift to the south-southeast and advect into the Front Range where a small low pressure system is forecast to develop and interact with a 700mb shortwave. Showers and storms as a result are forecast to develop off of the Palmer Divide and move to the east towards the state line during the late afternoon and into the early evening. Additional shortwaves are depicted in the NAM overnight along with an increasing low level jet which would lead to the potential for showers and storms continuing through the night. With inverted v soundings in place during the late afternoon and evening along with very steep lapse rates and DCAPE around 2000 j/kg severe wind gusts could be possible as gusts around 65 mph could be in play. Should the overnight storm threat take place some localized flooding concerns could be in play as well due to very slow storm motions with Corfidi Upshear values around 10 knots and PWATS ranging from 1.4-1.7. However soundings do show dry from the surface to around 700mb according to the 12Z NAM which does lower my confidence in any flooding concerns. Around 25% of 12Z ECMWF ensemble members does try to paint some higher rainfall totals somewhere across the CWA, so this threat will for sure need to be monitored in upcoming shifts.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Synoptically, the ridge that has been in place the past few days is likely to stay nearly stationary over the next week. Throughout the week, Guidance is showing there a few shortwave troughs that will move through the region.

Monday looks to be the hottest day of the week with highs reaching the low 100s. The highest temperatures that could be seen are 105- 107 degrees. These temperatures look to remain east of KS Hwy 27. Due to these high temperatures a Heat Advisory is in place for all of the Kansas and Nebraska Counties at this time. Winds look to mainly remain from the north-northeast with gusts up to 20-25 kts.

There are some precipation chances on Monday afternoon/evening. Looking at PoPs there is a 30-45% for the majority of the County Warning Area (CWA). Looking at Guidance, there does seem to be a shortwave and a boundary that will move in from the north and continue south. However some disagreement on the boundary itself. The ECMWF and Canadian both have the boundary, but the GFS does not. As for Precipitation there is agreement with the NBM and LREF that there is a 20-30% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipation, for Yuma County in Colorado. Looking at ingredients needed for severe storms there are some indications there could be storms but on the marginal side.

Moving to the rest of the week, starting Tuesday temperatures begin to "cool" down to the high 90s. Precipitation chances return again in the afternoon and evening with PoP's reaching up to 60% in Yuma County, in Colorado. For the majority of the rest of the CWA there is values in the 20-40% range. For the extended part of the week, the highs still remain in the 90s, with the exception of Thursday highs cool down to the high 80s and low 90s. PoPs each day hangout around 20-40% for the majority of the CWA. One feature to keep an eye on is on Thursday there looks to be a shortwave with an associated surface low that could bring more weather chances. However, given this is almost a week out a lot can change.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Winds are forecast to be from the south-southeast through the afternoon and evening before shifting to mainly from the south around sunrise Sunday. Winds are forecast to increase in speed with up to 20 knot sustained, currently favoring MCK by late afternoon before waning to around 10 knots for the remainder of the period. Mainly clear skies are forecast but an increase in sky cover is forecast from decaying showers/storms from the Front Range early this evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004- 013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092. NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.