textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing sub-severe storms in northwest Kansas will track southeastward into central Kansas by sunrise.

- Storms forecast to develop along the CO Front Range late this afternoon will track east toward the KS border this evening. A few storms capable of producing small hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible, mainly in eastern CO between 7-11 PM MDT.

- Expect near average temperatures today followed by a modest warming trend on Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

No significant change(s) to prior forecast reasoning and expectations for the weekend.

Today, the upper ridge axis will run from eastern Wyoming and Colorado to the Texas panhandle. Convection will develop in the afternoon over the Rockies and Front Range with the southwest flow, then move across the eastern plains and spreading into the area tonight. With the later arrival, probably not until after 03Z, storms will be weakening but may still pose a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts as they make their way across the area through the overnight.

The ridge flattens out on Sunday and extends from the Four Corners to the Texas panhandle. Zonal flow over the top through northern Colorado will initiate convection over the mountains and Front Range, and once again make the trek across the plains and into the area Sunday night. These will arrive slightly earlier, 00-02z, in far northeast Colorado and may still pose a marginal wind and hail threat, but with only weak instability forecast and deep layer shear around 20 kts, severe chances will be low. Storms will gradually weaken as they move east into the remainder of the area Sunday evening.

The ridge strengthens a bit on Monday with height rises in Colorado, and the zonal flow is through southern Wyoming. Forecast instability is weak and generally less than 1000 j/kg, though deep layer shear does increase to around 40 kts. RFS suggests a few scattered storms developing, moving east and then southeast with the mean flow Monday afternoon and evening in areas generally north of Interstate 70 with perhaps a marginal risk for wind and hail.

The temperature trend for the period will be near to slightly above normal through the weekend, then above normal on Monday with temperatures currently forecast in the mid to upper 90s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Synoptically, a ridge is forecast to be over the SW CONUS and currently looks to remain relatively stationary. Throughout the week, there appears to be a few shortwaves moving though the CWA, which may bring higher precipitation chances.

High temperatures for the week are forecast to be in the 90s for the majority of the area. The "coolest" day for the period looks to be Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, whereas Friday looks to be the hottest with highs in the mid 90s. If the ridge begins to amplify or move eastward, as guidance hints, higher temperatures could be seen. Winds throughout the week are forecast to be calm to breezy, and relative humidity values are expected to be higher than 30%, which should help minimize fire weather concerns.

Precipitation chances are present during the week. As some shortwaves move around the high, they will likely to be our main precipitation producers. The day currently with the highest precipitation chances is Tuesday. Guidance hints at some vorticity associated with the shortwave as it moves through Tuesday afternoon. Both CAPE and shear appear sufficient for severe storms; however, some guidance indicates a mismatch between higher/lower CAPE and lower/higher shear, which could lead to less organized storms. Looking at qpf, some guidance shows the possibility of heavy rainfall with these storms, which is something to keep in mind as we get closer to Tuesday. The rest of the week there is roughly a 15-30% chance of PoPs as various shortwaves move through the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

GLD: Aside from a potential for sub-VFR ceilings or fog an hour or two on either side of sunrise, VFR conditions will prevail through the 12Z TAF period. Low confidence in stratus/fog development. Gusty and erratic winds in vicinity of decaying showers/storms are possible until ~11Z. Otherwise, light northeasterly or variable winds will become ESE or SE and modestly increase to 10-15 knots late this morning and persist through the afternoon.

MCK: Aside from a potential for sub-VFR ceilings or fog an hour or two on either side of sunrise, VFR conditions will prevail through the 12Z TAF period. Low confidence in stratus/fog development. Light northeasterly or variable winds will become ESE or SE and modestly increase to 10-15 knots during the late morning and persist through the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.