textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms are possible this evening and into the overnight hours, mainly north of I-70. A severe storm or two may occur.

- Chance for widespread severe weather Saturday with storms forecast to form during the afternoon and evening hours. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible.

- Flash flooding is also possible late Saturday with heavy rain and multiple rounds of storms possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1249 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Current observations continue to show a large upper trough over much of the CONUS with surface high pressure across much of the Plains. For eastern parts of the area, this has cut the winds with speeds around 5-10 mph. The rest of the area however continues to see winds around 15-20 mph from the south with low pressure along the Front Range increasing the pressure gradient. This pattern should hold overnight, and allow for continued low level flow from the south. This should increase moisture in the area and cloud cover while holding temperatures for much of the area in the upper 50s and 60s.

For the daytime hours, a shortwave is forecast to push through the Plains, with the surface low to the west deepening just a bit. This should increase the pressure gradient across the area and keep winds around 15-20 mph except maybe over Eastern Colorado where the low center may drop winds to 10 mph. Clouds are forecast to linger much of the day in the east, but clear in the west where dry air will try and intrude. This is forecast to have temperatures reach 90 for counties along the Colorado border with the clear skies, while the rest of the area may stay more in the low to mid 80s.

This evening and into the overnight hours, the continued southeasterly flow is forecast to both increase moisture availability and create a convergence zone along the higher terrain. With the added possibility of a shortwave trying to move through the flow over the area, storms are forecast to develop along the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado. With storms forming close to sunset, capping is forecast to hinder development and intensity. But that being said, 0-6km shear of 45 kts and MUCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg will support large hail with any sustained storms or supercells. Most of the hail should be around an inch or less with freezing levels forecast to be around 16000-17000ft. But a supercell would likely have the potential to produce hail up to 2.5 inches. There could also be a gust to 65 mph with a strong downdraft. The storms for now are favored to form generally along and north of I-70 while pushing east across the area. If the storms do form, they could linger overnight with the moisture in the area. Lows are forecast to be in the 60s with the moisture and cloud cover.

Saturday continues to look like an active day with a reinforcing trough moving into the Rockies and helping to push the surface low more into the area. There is a big if with how this day will play out though due to the prior night's storms. If the storms and increased cloud cover linger into the morning hours, it would likely lower the storm coverage and intensity later in the day. It would also keep temperatures cooler (likely in the east) with highs in the 80s. 90s would be more likely for those counties along the Colorado border with clearer skies and more southerly/southwesterly flow bringing in warmer air. Winds would also be fairly breezy across the area with the tightening pressure gradient allowing for wind speeds around 20-30 mph and gusts to 40 mph.

If early storms don't interfere too much, the low is forecast to push into western portions of the area and help develop storms along a convergence zone around Eastern Colorado. This line could start more as pulse and supercell storms, before likely evolving into clusters. The cluster evolution would likely be within an hour if there is early convection. Otherwise, most of the development is forecast to be around 2-4 pm and then steadily push east through the area, leaving close to midnight.

Multiple hazards are possible with the forecast environment having 0- 6km shear around 40-45 kts, MUCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg, cyclonic curved low level hodographs, corfidi downshear vectors around 55 kts, and PWATS above 1.25'. This all supports large hail, wind gusts above 60 mph, tornadoes, and flash flooding. Similar to the prior day, hail is likely to be between 0.5-1.5" with the clustering of storms and high freezing levels. However, especially in the higher instability cases, supercells could produce 3"+ hail. Wind gusts are a bit more likely with the increased flow, though would still favor 55-65 mph. The max though could reach 70-80 mph if we get organized bowing clusters. This could also lead to blowing dust concerns, especially if the higher winds occurred over areas that did not receive rain the prior night. While the environment supports tornadoes, we would likely only see 1-3 with initially weak low level shear and LCLs forecast to be a bit on the higher side. The issue is that any tornado that forms may be near impossible to see with the heavy rain and clustering forecast to occur. Low level shear and helicity is also forecast to increase, so a strong tornado may be possible. In regards to the heavy rain and flash flooding, the storm motions would likely be too quick for flash flooding from a single cluster/line of storms (though rain totals could still easily reach 2-3" with a single cluster/storm). The main concern is if activity lingers in the area from outflow generating additional storms. Especially with rainfall from the prior night, there is a chance for isolated pockets of 4+" of rain causing some flash flooding. Those east of Highway 83 look to have the highest chance for flooding for now. So keep an eye out for updates as this forecast is a bit messy, but potentially impactful.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

An unsettled pattern continues for nearly the entire extended period as additional shortwaves move through the area. A classic summertime storm pattern is forecast to be setting up with developing high pressure across the southern Plains and semi northwest mid level flow for the CWA. Moisture currently looks to be a little less than Saturday with PWATS ranging from 1-1.5 inches. The signal remains for the potential of a few MCS's to move through the area after initial discrete storms at least Monday through Wednesday; and potentially through the latter part of the weak as some guidance indicates very little change to the overall pattern. Dependent on how Saturday and each previous day pans out additional flooding concerns may be possible especially for those that received the heaviest rainfall each day.

Temperatures for the period are a little on the tricky side as they potentially could end up a little cooler than currently forecast anyone day due to lingering cloud cover and possibly precipation. Confidence is high that below normal temperatures will occur with highs in the 70s to low 80s along with an increase in humidity as well. If the high were to set up a little further to the east more so over Oklahoma and Texas instead of Arizona and New Mexico which is what guidance currently suggests then rain chances would decrease and temperatures would increase.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period, but there is a 30% chance for ceilings to lower to around 1500ft between 12-15Z. Otherwise, winds should remain from the south around 10-20 kts with a few gusts of 20-25 kts. There is the possibility for storms to develop after 00Z, though they are forecast to be isolated so the overall chance for impacts to the terminal are currently around 20%.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 131 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Over the next week, we are looking at near daily chances of convection as PWATs range around 0.9-1.75 inch. We are also expecting 0C level to be around 15,000 feet AGL, leading to deep melting layers. Saturday is the most aggressive day coming up, where a MCS looks to form across the CWA and may produce 0.5-1.5+ inches of QPF in the northeastern CWA with localized amounts exceeding 2- 2.5 inches.

Between the high QPF values on Saturday and the following multiple days of heavy rainfall potential, we are worried about a flash flooding risk. Areas that are at the highest risk for seeing a flooding risk are along and northeast of a line from Trenton, NE to Quinter, KS.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.