textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect sunny skies, dry conditions and a day-to-day warming trend through early next week.

- Warm and dry late weekend through next week with fire weather concerns especially late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 105 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Overview: A cut-off low in vicinity of Baja, CA will cement a split flow synoptic regime over the central Rockies and adjoining High Plains through early next week.. placing the Tri- State Area in modest confluent flow aloft, between the northern stream jet (confined above ~42N) and southern stream jet (confined below ~36N).

A stale, subsident synoptic regime will maintain sunny skies and dry conditions throughout the short term period. Expect a day- to-day warming trend assoc/w modest low-level southerly flow on the eastern periphery of a diurnally waxing/waning lee trough in Colorado, with highs ascending to the lower 70's on Sunday and upper 70's to near 80F on Monday. With well above average temperatures and exceptionally dry conditions (10-20% RH), light (10-20 mph) SW to WSW winds are the sole factor limiting/precluding critical fire weather.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 100 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

On Tuesday, southwest cut off low will be picked up by northern stream shortwave and emerge onto the southern plains as an open wave. Cold front accompanying the northern wave will delineate weakly to moderately unstable air mass to the south from the cool, stable post frontal air mass. Models currently show about a 10-30% chance of weak instability (<500 j/kg) south of Interstate 70 Tuesday afternoon. Deep layer shear is forecast at 50 kts or higher, so assuming the front is in the area and thunderstorms initiate, may see a low end severe threat in the afternoon and evening, limited mainly by the instability and uncertainty about frontal position. While afternoon relative humidity may drop into the teens, winds are currently forecast to be light, especially post frontal. Light snow will be possible Tuesday night with the northern stream wave behind the front. GFS/ECWMF/Canadian ensembles all show less than half an inch, mainly north of Interstate 70. Post frontal winds Tuesday night may gust up to 40 mph at times. Winds will also increase on Wednesday with deep mixing tapping into a 100kt jet streak over the area at 500 mb. Models currently showing gusts of 40-50 mph in the afternoon. Those winds coupled with relative humidity in the teens may result in critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday will feature a broad northwest flow over the central and northern plains on Thursday gradually transition to a zonal flow by Saturday. No precipitation is expected, but will see a cold front on Friday with a weak embedded wave in the northern plains. Main concern these days will be fire weather, as relative humidity is forecast to drop into the teens for at least a part of the area each day. Thursday appears to have the most potential with a westerly surface wind tanking dew points. Wind speeds will be a bit more marginal, as the core of the upper jet stays north of the area, but may be able to tap into a part of it with a modest increase in winds aloft. Dew points will recover somewhat on Friday behind the front, though western areas may still be dry, ultimately depending on frontal timing. Winds aloft are still stronger to the north, so not sure it can all come together for a critical fire threat. Saturday may have the least potential, with slightly higher dew points lingering but much lighter winds aloft with the zonal flow.

Temperature trends for the period show much above normal temperatures on Tuesday (70s); falling to near normal on Wednesday behind the front (50s); quickly recovering to above normal on Thursday (70s, perhaps a few 80s); then cooling in eastern areas on Friday with the second front into the 60s but remaining much above normal in western areas (depending on frontal timing); then slightly above normal on Saturday (60s). Low temperatures do not have as dramatic swings and are mainly in the 20s and 30s, with the exception of Friday morning with lows in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 955 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. WNW to NW winds at 10-15 knots will back to the W and SW by early afternoon, with sporadic gusts to 18-20 knots possible during the mid-late afternoon. ~10 knot WSW to SW winds will prevail this evening through Sunday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.