textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing fog is possible Saturday morning along and east of KS 25. Localized reductions of visibility down to around 1/2 mile are possible.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Yuma county for Saturday. Elevated to locally critical fire conditions are possible for adjacent counties as well.

- Above average highs expected into early next week.

- A series of weak shortwaves move through the region next week and may bring precipitation. Low confidence on timing and accumulations at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 109 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

A surface high is located across the eastern portions of the area keeping winds light and variable. The main focus through the evening and overnight is on a backdoor cold front where some moisture does look to dam up against the leading edge of the front. There are some signals for some shallow fog development. Patchy dense fog may be possible but at this time not overly concerned for widespread dense fog due to how shallow the saturated layer is. Interesting enough the 12z HREF does show a 30% chance of visibilities falling below 1/2 mile roughly along and east of Highway 25. A few things are playing against the fog formation with the main one being a quicker switch to southerly winds which is not climatologically favorable for fog. Temperatures are forecast to be flirting with freezing so any fog would lead to concerns for freezing fog leading to localized slick spots on elevated surfaces. Roads could become a concern but with the mild temperatures the past few days road and soil temperatures should be warm enough to prevent ice accretion unless fog persists for a prolonged period of time. Stratus seems to be the most likely outcome at this time due to the southerly turn of the winds.

Saturday, essentially a southeast moving warm front moves into the area along a belt of warmer 850mb temperatures around 15C. This will lead to another day of warm temperatures with highs in the 60s to 70s for most. The exception is across our eastern counties where there is some concern that thick stratus could linger through the day leading to cooler temperatures. Have nudged down highs into the upper 50s mainly for southern Graham and Gove counties due to this concern. The NAM is currently the outlier on temperatures as it keeps a really think stratus deck all day with only a high of 40 degrees. Do not quite want to be that aggressive at this time but the NAM typically does do a good job of being the first to pick up on these signals in the past so if confidence does in crease in that potential then highs for those two counties could be around 10-15 degrees to warm on this forecast package.

On the for sure warm side of the CWA high temperatures are forecast to warm to the upper 60s and low 70s. Do have some concerns that highs may end up being a little warmer due to the compression warming along the front. Have also brought dew points down a few degrees as mixing heights are forecast to top out around 5500 feet AGL. RAP, NAM and GFS soundings all show lower dew points aloft which should be easily mixed down. Cross sections do show some cloud cover around 500mb but should be high enough that it should not impact mixing. An increasing 850mb jet around 30-35 knots is forecast to lead to sustained winds of 15-25 mph across northwest portions of the area with gusts up to 35 mph. The GFS, does have bit of stronger jet would support wind gusts up to 45 mph but confidence in gusts that strong is only around 10-20%. With all of this in mind have opted to issue a Red Flag Warning for Yuma county Colorado from 11am through 5pm Saturday due to 80% confidence in at least 3 hours of critical fire weather conditions being met. If the GFS is correct and the 850mb jet is stronger there is potential it may need to be expanded into adjacent counties as well. Confidence in that is only 10-20% at this time. Further east winds are forecast to be more southwesterly ahead of the front around 10-15 mph and more variable just ahead of the front. Wind gust potential is forecast to end around 430-5pm MT with winds reaming still around 10-15 mph through the evening.

Sunday at this time appears to be more tranquil as the area is forecast to be void of any pressure gradients increasing winds. Synoptically northwest flow is forecast to continue along with our mild temperatures with highs forecast to be in the upper 60s across the entire forecast area. Humidity values are forecast to be low in the mid to upper teens but with the lack of wind, fire weather concerns are currently not anticipated.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 150 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Ridging looks to be overhead Monday morning ahead of a shortwave trough traveling eastward across the North-Central Plains. An attendant low to this trough is forecast to travel along the Nebraska-South Dakota Border throughout the day, producing southwesterly surface flow across the CWA through most of the afternoon. Warm, dry conditions are likely on Monday, with high temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s, and RH values in the mid to upper-teens across a large portion of the forecast area. Locally critical fire weather is not yet a concern, as NBM ensemble guidance suggests only about a 10% chance or less for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed rests at about 5% or less.

A cold front looks to come through between the afternoon and evening hours Monday, which is forecast to bring cooler temperatures to the CWA Tuesday. High temperatures are currently forecast in the low to mid-50s, though there is about a 20% chance that highs across the forecast region could be below 50.

For the remainder of the period, southwesterly upper level flow looks to set up over the forecast region as a trough slowly moves across the Western and Central United States. This pattern would allow for a number of shortwave systems to impact the CWA, along with potentially brief periods of above average temperatures ahead of these shortwaves. However, cooler conditions compared to the last week are favored, with high temperatures primarily in the 50s through Saturday. In addition, there will be a few chances for winter weather. NBM guidance suggests that light rain and/or snow could begin as early as Wednesday morning, but there is a lot of uncertainty regarding how many winter systems could come through, as well as the coverage, timing, and intensity of each. Based on my analysis, there are two potential systems that seem to stand out, the first being Wednesday and into Thursday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast to take place somewhere in the Wyoming and/or Colorado Rockies overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday. GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble members indicate the track of this system could be eastward or southeastward. The further south this low pressure is allowed to form and track, the more likely light rain or snow could be observed in the CWA Wednesday and Thursday. Accumulating snow of a couple inches could be possible if the low is allowed to track as far south as North-Central Texas, though GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble guidance indicates only around a 5% chance of this scenario. I believe its more likely this system would produce light snowfall half an inch or less. Another system could impact the area on Friday or Saturday. Around 25% of GEFS and ECMWF members indicate the potential for accumulating snowfall in the forecast area 2 inches or greater. Even so, coverage and intensity are very uncertain across all members.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1006 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Latest model runs show no low clouds or fog overnight, so confidence has decreased and will not mention for now. Otherwise, expecting occasional high clouds and surface winds gusting up to 20kts at times Saturday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Confidence has increased in multiple hours of critical fire weather conditions occurring across Yuma county for Saturday. A warm front is forecast to move through the area from the northwest as high temperatures are forecast to rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. Mixing is forecast to increase to around 5000 feet AGL during the early afternoon hours which may mix down some drier air aloft which may lead to lower RH values than forecasted. Confidence is high in wind gusts of 30-35 mph, some guidance does have the 850mb wind field which is causing the winds to be a little stronger which would then result in wind gusts up to 45 mph. Confidence in that is only 10-20% at this time however. Even if mixing is not as strong as anticipated surface RH forecasts are still around 16%. With D1 drought creeping back into the county this should still lead to the same fire behavior even if humidity values were to fall a little more. Elevated to locally critical conditions are forecast to occur in adjacent counties (Dundy, Kit Carson, Cheyenne (KS), Sherman). Will need to continue to keep an eye on the potential mixing potential and if the 10-20% chance that winds are stronger then the Red Flag Warning may need to be expanded some.

Sunday and Monday, humidity will be low in the low to upper teens but the overall wind fields are not impressive at all. Sustained winds are forecast to be around 10 mph. Due to diurnal mixing we could see some gusts up to 20 mph across most of the forecast area but should be sporadic and isolated in nature. Due to this the concern for elevated conditions has declined.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ001. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ079.