textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for rain continue through much of the week. Highest chances are today and favor the southern portion of the region.

- Seasonable temperatures with highs in the 70s/80s are forecast through the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Current observations show a large upper trough over the Western United States with mid to upper level cloud cover wrapping around it into the High Plains. Near the surface, showers and storms have dissipated as the limited instability from daytime heating has ended. The winds have also began to weaken as the surface pressure gradient has weakened over the area. With all of this, tonight is forecast to see a continued mix of cloud cover and clear skies with little to no precipitation. Winds should lower to around 5-10 mph from the southeast while temperatures drop slowly into the 50s and 60s. Temperatures near 50 are more likely for western portions of the area that see more clear than cloudy skies.

For Wednesday, the main upper trough/low over the Western United States is forecast to drift just a bit to the south. Meanwhile, the weaker trough axis near the area is forecast to lift north while a 850-700mb ejects over the Panhandles region. This all is forecast to keep moisture advecting in from the southeast. There is a small chance for fog during the morning hours as the lower levels saturate, but the higher cloud cover should help insulate enough to keep dewpoint depressions above 3 degrees. Meanwhile, cloud cover should increase through the day with the added moisture. The ejecting 850-700mb low along with the first upper trough axis swinging through the area are forecast to fire up some showers and storms shortly after the noon hour. These storms are unlikely to be severe with the cloud cover and cooler temperatures keeping instability on the lower end. 0-6km wind shear is also forecast to be around 25 kts which should favor pulse storms. Small hail would be possible and maybe a gust of 50-60 mph. Based on the forecast positioning of the features, locales along and south of a line from Wray, CO to Hill City, KS are favored to see the storm and showers. High temperatures should reach the 80s in areas with less cloud cover (likely northeast) while temperatures near 70 are more likely for those who stay cloudy (southwest).

Tomorrow night, with little change in the upper features and continued synoptic support, showers and storms could continue through the night. Again, these storms are unlikely to be severe. The main change is that there could be a slight shift more to the east for the showers and storms. With the cloud cover, temperatures are likely to stay in the 50s/60s. Fog may be possible with the increasing low level moisture, maybe even dense fog. However, the showers and storms mixing things up and temperatures being prevented from dropping by the cloud cover is currently keeping the chances on the low side.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1254 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

The aforementioned trough axis gradually lifts out of the region Thursday. As a result temperatures are forecast to remain seasonable in the upper 70s to low 80s. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon/evening but the main caveat will be instability. If enough sunshine is able to break through any lingering cloud cover, there is a chance for some strong to severe storms to develop. At this time the main concern with any strong to severe storms that do develop would be large hail.

An omega block like pattern looks to develop by the end of the week into the weekend. A potent ridge will remain mostly locked into place across the central to northern plains. At the same time numerous disturbances will move through portions of the PACNW and northeastern CONUS. For our CWA, temperatures will remain seasonable through the weekend as the warmest and driest air stays well to the north. Above normal PWATs persist as southwesterly flow keeps moisture funneling into the region. This excess moisture will allow for daily chances (10-40%) for afternoon showers and thunderstorms starting Friday through much of the weekend. The end of May and start of June looks to see seasonable temperatures persist. Models do differ slightly around this time with some showing a more potent ridge build in across the central CONUS. This would bring in warmer/drier conditions to the region with temperatures feeling more like summer. Others, keep an omega block like pattern in place which would keep daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the CWA. Temperatures would likely remain around seasonable in this scenario.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1110 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds are forecast to be around 10kts with cloud cover above 5000ft through 18Z. There is a 10% chance for a brief period of ceilings around 1000ft between 11-14Z. Otherwise, the main condition of interest is scattered storms that are possible between 20-03Z. Multiple isolated storms are possible during that time, likely moving in from the south/southeast. Severe weather is unlikely. After that, be alert for ceilings to lower slowly going into the night.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period. Cloud cover above 6000ft is forecast with winds generally around 10 kts. There is a 20% chance for a few thunderstorms after 22Z, though the current forecast as them south of the terminal. Be alert for the possibility of lowering ceilings Wednesday night.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 729 AM MDT Wed May 27 2026

Starting Wednesday morning, a low pressure system will pass over the western CWA moving north. This low is forecast to move slowly, finally leaving the area Thursday night. During this time widespread broken showers with embedded storms are expected across the CWA. This will provide much needed precipitation to portions of the CWA, focused mainly around Gove county. Precipitation totals lower farther north, with the REFS 75th percentile only being around 0.2 inch of QPF along the U.S. 34 corridor. Locations south and west of an area from Hill City, to Colby, to Marianthal have a 30-50% chance of seeing an inch of QPF by Friday morning.

There is an outside (<5%) chance that up to 3.5 inches of rain falls by Friday morning in or near Gove county. This would occur is multiple rounds of storms can train over the same location, potentially leading to a flood threat. As it stands, there is a 25% chance nuisance flooding will occur in the southeastern CWA by late Thursday night, and only a 5% chance flash flooding occurs.

Additional light precipitation is possible throughout the day Friday, but QPF is very low.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.