textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures are likely to persist through the remainder of the week.

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may produce 1-2 inch hail and winds up around 75 MPH, leading to blowing dust. Blowing dust may lead to localized brownout conditions. Most likely timing for storms is between 3 PM and 10 PM MT.

- Scattered thunderstorms may occur again tomorrow afternoon and evening. Localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are the primary threat, but hail up to 1.5 inches is also possible.

- A mainly dry period is expected Thursday and Friday before another chance for storms on Saturday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Scattered convection looks to remain possible Wednesday. Then as upper level ridging noses northward Thursday into Friday, a lull in convection appears to occur. By Saturday a strong shortwave is slated to cross the Northern Plains. Our area will be on the southern flank of the stronger forcing, but there will be some chance for storms as a cold front settles southward through the area. Upper level ridging then begins to build northward Sunday into the first of next week. It will be quite warm through the period, with the hottest day slated to be Friday, when highs in the upper 90s to near 100 are expected.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

***Thursday/Friday***

Thursday morning, a 500-mb high looks to be set up across the Eastern United States, with troughing across the west. This pattern would produce southwesterly upper-level flow across the County Warning Area (CWA). Several shortwave systems may be embedded in this flow. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance is consistent on a shortwave ridge overhead to start the period, with a shortwave trough that comes through during the afternoon and evening hours. A surface low pressure at the leading edge of this shortwave trough would establish southerly surface winds across the forecast region throughout the day. Temperatures are likely to be hot, with current forecast guidance suggesting highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area.

Winds to the south of the low may be a bit more southwesterly. This would promote drying conditions, particularly across portions of East-Central Colorado. According to LREF guidance, the western halves of Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado have over a 50% chance of relative humidities (RH) dropping below 15%, with as high as an 80% chance along their western borders. Forecast guidance suggests that RH values dropping into the single-digits. Wind gusts may increase through the afternoon hours as well, with NBM guidance suggesting up to a 75% chance for gusts to exceed critical fire weather criteria (>25 mph). The good news is that recent rainfall may prevent significant drying of fuels, limiting the risk for critical fire weather. If fuels can become dry enough, a Red Flag Warning may need to be considered across this zone.

Thunderstorm activity may also be in play Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of a dryline. LREF guidance suggests a 75% chance or greater to see surface-based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values 1000 J/kg or higher along and east of Kansas Highway 25. However, the same guidance suggests that 0-500mb wind shear will max out around 30 kts in this zone, which would suggest mostly non-severe thunderstorms. The best chance for any severe weather would be if near 90th percentile CAPE can be experienced (2500-3500 J/kg), which could promote hail earlier in the storms' life cycles. Confidence in severe thunderstorms occurring Thursday afternoon and evening is 5% or less at this time.

Similar conditions are possible on Friday, except without the thunderstorm potential. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Forecast guidance suggests that RH values may drop into the mid single-digits in some locations of East- Central Colorado. However, wind gusts look to be a bit lighter during the afternoon than on Thursday. Even if fuels are able to dry out significantly by then, the confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is low at this time.

***Saturday***

Ensemble guidance is confident in troughing from the west lifting northeast by Saturday, as another shortwave trough moves in overhead. As this occurs, a cold front is favored to move through the area. High temperatures are forecast slightly lower in the lower to upper 90s, but RH values look to improve a bit as this process takes place. Thunderstorms may occur along the cold front as well. LREF guidance suggests that 0-500mb shear may reach the 30-40 kt range, which could support some thunderstorms becoming severe. Even so, confidence in a severe event Saturday afternoon and evening is only about 5%.

***Sunday-Tuesday***

Upper-level ridging looks to take over by Sunday, and last through the end of the forecast period. A slow moving high at the leading edge of this system may prevent winds from becoming fully out of the south until Tuesday. This is reflected in the forecast highs of upper 80s and lower 90s Sunday and Monday, and low to mid 90s on Tuesday. Additionally, easterly surface winds from this high on Sunday and Monday could produce a convergence zone across Kansas. This boundary may support thunderstorm development as well. Confidence is low at this time that these storms will become severe.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 454 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period, but ceilings may drop a bit below 3000ft if a storm can move over the terminal. The best window for storms looks to be between 01-03Z. Be alert that these storms could produce large hail and wind gusts in excess of 60 kts. After the storms pass, the low level jet should kick in with winds around 200-400ft at 45-50kts. This should cause low level wind shear through about 12-14Z. After that, winds lower a bit while staying roughly from the south/southeast.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.