textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence in an isolated severe risk tonight for any storms which may develop along a front in Nebraska and then move south. If storms develop, large hail and damaging winds would be possible.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon and evening with a marginal risk for wind and hail with stronger storms.

- Weekend precipitation chances mainly at night with showers and storms moving out of Colorado. Severe chances will be low with this activity.

- Heat peaks on Friday, then slightly cooler over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Upper ridge remains in control for today, centered over the Four Corners. Hard to find any embedded waves rotating around it, in fact heights are rising across the northern Rockies and adjacent plains as the ridge amplifies. There will be a cold front traversing the Dakotas this afternoon, but it stalls out across northern Nebraska. Question is whether or not convection will initiate on the front and move south into the area this evening. Most CAMs show initiation occurring in northeast Nebraska and further east, but not on the western end of the front. If that holds, there will not be any convection in our area. The low level jet does become more favorable after 06z and may provide enough lift for something to develop, but not overly optimistic at this time with the lack of support from the CAMs. Environmental parameters remain somewhat favorable, especially deep layer shear, but surface CIN becomes prohibitive after 03z so storms would be elevated. MUCAPE is around 1500-2000 j/kg through the rest of the night, so perhaps a marginal hail risk if something should develop.

On Friday the ridge elongates somewhat and the axis runs the length of the Rockies from Montana to Colorado. This orientation results in more of a northwest flow over the plains and opens the door to any embedded weak waves to provide synoptic lift. The surface front remains north of the area through the afternoon, but the lee trough sets up along the Kansas and Colorado border and would be a possible area for convection to initiate. The front moves south Friday night and will be near the Kansas/Nebraska border by around 06z and then move through the remainder of the area overnight. The afternoon and evening environment will be weak to moderately unstable, generally 1000-2000 j/kg but with some pockets up to 3000 j/kg, with deep layer shear 30-40 kts. CAMs show isolated to widely scattered storms in the afternoon and evening, with perhaps an increase in coverage overnight in eastern areas as the low level jet again becomes active and maintains elevated convection with a marginal hail risk. May see patchy fog overnight and into Saturday morning with the favorable post frontal easterly winds.

For the weekend, the ridge migrates eastward on Saturday with the axis over eastern Colorado. Southwest flow over the Rockies will initiate afternoon convection which will move northeast across the plains Saturday night. Some of this remnant convection will reach areas generally north of Interstate 70 in the evening and overnight hours, but probably in a much weakened state. On Sunday the ridge moves south into the Texas panhandle area, with a zonal flow over the top in Colorado and Kansas. An embedded wave will once again initiate convection over the mountains and Front Range, reaching the area Sunday night. If it gets here early enough may see a limited wind and hail threat, mainly in Colorado, where SBCAPE is forecast up to 1500 j/kg and deep layer shear up to 30 kts. Storms will tend to weaken into Sunday night with mainly a marginal wind threat.

Temperatures peak on Friday with upper 90s to near 100, but then will be slightly cooler over the weekend behind the front with highs around 90 both days.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 106 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Starting the extended period Monday, 597 dam high pressure is forecast to be in place over the SW CONUS. As long as it remains situated in that position the potential for lobes of vorticity to move around the high will keep our shower and storm potential in play. The current forecast for the precipitation continues to look reasonable as guidance has been coming into better agreement with shortwave moving off of the Rockies during the afternoon hours on Monday and possibly an even stronger wave Tuesday as well. Do have some concerns about Monday however as CAPE and shear may be a bit lacking which seems like a decent scenario for outflow to get out ahead of storms and they dissipate which which ECMWF ensemble qpf output on most members suggest that this could be a realistic concern. Both may have the potential for severe weather but Tuesday is currently forecast to have a bit better CAPE and shear. Some qpf outputs are also showing the potential for heavy rainfall as well so may need to keep an eye on some flooding issues as well.

Wednesday and into the latter part of the week, guidance suggests that heights rise as some ridge amplification occurs which is synoptically favored to help suppress any additional storm development. If this signal were to change then a similar pattern to Monday and Tuesday would ensue and keep our daily storm chances in play.

High temperatures are continued to be forecast in the 90s for the extended period. 850mb moisture is forecast to remain in place as well which will help keep temperatures in the lower to mid 90s instead of warming up into the upper 90s to even triple digits. However if the overall high pressure were to shift northward a little more then the higher temperatures could be realized.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and mostly clear skies.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.