textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon across the area. Wind gusts up around 70 mph and blowing dust are the primary hazards.

- A few hours of critical fire weather conditions are forecast late this morning and afternoon for counties along the Kansas/Colorado state line. Dry lightning is also a concern for fire starts with any storm that develops.

- Storm chances continue daily the next few days.

- Air temperatures nearing 100-105 are forecast through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Weak northwesterly flow is persisting as a high over the Four Corners fights with a trough near the Great Lakes. As of 17-18Z, there is a pocket of dry air that has intruded from the southwest, allowing some midday convection to form. So far, the strongest cell in this convection produced 36 kt winds and briefly heavy rainfall. Minimal hazards are expected with this midday convection.

As the day progresses, we are expecting temperatures to warm into the triple digits across the CWA, with some places potentially warming up to 105! Warmer temperatures will are supported by south- southwesterly winds gusting in the 20-30 kts range today. Since there is low confidence in 105+ temperatures, a Heat Advisory has not been issued, but take precautions to stay cool and hydrated.

Starting around 19-21Z, we are expected a dryline to push in from the west and fire off our main round of convection for the day. This round of convection looks to form as a broken line running from around Dundy county to the southwest through the CWA. The line will move to the east-southeast, however splitting cells will vary greatly in direction. Main hazards are still 50-65 MPH winds, however a strong downburst could product winds up to 80 MPH. We are worried about any winds over 50 MPH leading to blowing dust, causing brief brownout conditions and reduced air quality. We cannot rule out a wall of dust. Additionally, 0.5-1.5 inch hail is also possible, but less likely than the winds. Up and down shear velocities, as well as right mover motions are under 20 kts, and PWATS will be above 1 inch, leading to a low-end flash flooding risk from slow moving storms. LCLs are above 2 km, so the tornadic threat is extremely low. Be aware of lightning cause fires, too.

Areas that see the midday convection have a lower chance at seeing storms this afternoon and evening. Convection should largely be out of the area by 5Z. Overnight, lows look to cool into the 60s across the area. Fog does not look likely tonight.

Tomorrow will be hot again with temperatures warming into the low triple digits. A stationary boundary will setup in the far southeastern CWA, likely southeast of a line from Norton, KS to Tribune, KS. Northwest of this boundary, winds will be fairly light favoring a northerly direction. Southeast of the boundary, winds will be stronger and from the southwest. Areas southeast of the boundary will have a slightly better chance at seeing temperatures warm to around 105.

A 500 mb shortwave trough is expected to push into the CWA tomorrow. timing is still a bit of a question, but between 0-6Z is the favored time. This could lead to another round of scattered storms across the CWA, but hazards are more muted than today's. Winds look to be more in the 40-60 MPH range with hail generally under an inch. Blowing dust and lightning started fires will still be a threat for areas that receive less than 2 inches of rain today. Convection may last until the early morning hours Monday. Lows once again look to cool into the 60s, but some areas in the southeastern CWA may remain in the low 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 216 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Beginning Sunday, we transition to more of a zonal upper-level flow with a ridge building west of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast to remain unseasonably warm for the county warning area (CWA) through Tuesday with highs in the 90s to 100s. Sunday is forecast to be the hottest day with the entire CWA expected to reach above 100 degrees. A weak cold front moving through Tuesday night will start a cooling trend with high temperatures in the 90s Wednesday and further dropping in the 80s by Friday.

Starting Sunday evening through at least Friday, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight due to embedded shortwave passages. Late Wednesday, we begin to transition to more of a northwest upper-level flow with increased upper-level support from a jet streak overhead. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast period. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the late evenings and overnight hours Wednesday and Thursday with PoPs around 50-70%. Models are showing overall weak instability, but small hail and strong winds are still possible with any storms that form.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1028 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions look to prevail through the period for KMCK and KGLD. Weak showers during the midday look to move over KGLD, but no impacts are expected near the surface. Better chance for impactful precipitation will be between 20-03Z as a broken line of storms moves around the KGLD area. There is a chance that these storm produce 45+ kts winds, leading to blowing dust. Winds today will favor a south-southwesterly direction with gusts largely in the 20-30 kts range. Winds will weaken after sunset and gradually favor a north-northwesterly flow around sunrise.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

00Z guidance suggests that mixing may be strong and deep enough (up to 14,000 feet AGL) today for dew points to fall into the low 40s to even mid 30s as temperatures soar into the 100s. This is forecast to lead to humidity values in the low to mid teens; some localized single digit values may be possible as well. Sustained winds are forecast from mainly the south at 15-20 mph. A lack of a 700mb jet suggests that mainly a high sustained wind is most likely but with the 850 mb jet being the prime source of wind some instances of 25-30 mph wind gusts are possible. Guidance suggests that the lowest humidity values would favor Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Greeley, Wallace and Sherman counties. There is concern for some period of overlap of these conditions. Confidence is around 80-90% in at least one hour of these conditions occurring but falling to around 40-50% for 3 or more hours to warrant a Red Flag Warning due to the potential for storms during the early afternoon. With the dry conditions in place I do have concerns of dry lightning and the potential for fire starts from this due to how dry it has been as of late. CAPE values under 1000 j/kg lead me to believe that most if not all storms would minimal to moderate amounts of lightning but not a high amount like what occurred earlier in the week. PWATS this afternoon are under an inch and with how dry it is have questions of how much rain can fall with any storm. Storm motions may be just slow enough that if a fire were to start then any rainfall could help mitigate the spread. I did contemplate a Red Flag Warning with lightning factor included but due to the slower motions opted to hold off. Be aware of however wind gusts around 70 mph along with dust and poor air quality.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.