textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record highs (for the date) expected on Monday Feb 09.

- Elevated fire weather conditions today due to low humidity.

- A series of systems move through the region late this week and may bring precipitation. Low confidence on timing and accumulations at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1220 AM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

Zonal flow today with deep westerly winds will allow temperatures to climb well into the 70s for highs. Afternoon relative humidity minimums will fall into the lower teens across most of the area, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Wind speeds a bit more tricky, but highest winds should stay either north of the area where stronger winds aloft will mix to the surface (western Nebraska), or just south of the area with a gradient wind ahead of a prefrontal trough (southwest Kansas). In our forecast area, probabilities for wind speeds greater 25 mph are currently less than 20%. That being said, would not be surprised to see a few gusts around criteria, but not for the required 3-hour duration. Tonight, a shortwave trough moving through the northern plains will force a cold front through the area. Winds will be breezy to windy behind the front 00-03z north of I-70 and 03-09z south of I-70. Highest probabilities are for gusts around 40 mph during those times, though some higher percentiles suggesting gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Tuesday will be partly cloudy and cooler with high temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s and lows Tuesday night in the mid 20s with increasing clouds. Breezy north winds Tuesday morning will diminish in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1249 AM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to keep mild temperatures in the area as an upper ridge moves over just ahead of a broad trough over the Western United States. Temperatures are currently forecast to be in the 50s and low 60s both days underneath a mix of partly cloudy and clear skies. Temperatures may end up being a bit cooler than forecast if the upper trough broadens as suggested in ensembles and helps push more mid to high level moisture over the area. While a surface low is forecast to develop along the Front Range and push into the area on Wed/Thur, the low levels are forecast to be too dry for precipitation. There is maybe a 10-20% chance for parts of Eastern Colorado, closer to the higher level moisture flow.

Late Thursday and through Saturday remains a little unclear. The upper level trough is expected to push east and potentially north through the Southern United States and the Plains. While deterministic guidance has a unified path and timing of the trough through the Panhandles region late Friday, ensemble spreads show multiple scenarios. Ensembles generally favor a faster track, that bring the trough and associated surface low through early in the day Friday. They also are showing a signal that the trough could dig further south, pulling the main batch of precipitation further south and maybe out of the area. In this scenario, the area would likely see little precipitation and impacts with cold air unlikely to intrude and the deeper surface low going south, keeping winds around average. This really isn't too much of a change from the deterministic (and forecast) scenario short of more precipitation as rain for those south of I-70 and slightly higher chances for snow with a late night progression Friday and into Saturday. The minor differences along with the ensembles hinting at a slower solution are the reason the forecast mirrors more of the deterministic guidance. Just be aware that precipitation chances may decrease in the coming days if the faster/southern solution plays out. Temperatures both days are forecast to have highs around 50 with lows in the 20s.

The worst case scenarios look to be if the low wraps in on itself just southeast of the area Friday Night or if the surface low moves along the Southern Kansas border in the slower solutions. In these scenarios, the air may become cold enough for more snow instead of rain when the precipitation would be at its heaviest. The chance for this is currently around 15-20%, but accumulating snow and winter impacts would be a concern.

Sunday and into next week isn't much clearer. Likely, there should be some upper level ridging that moves in after the trough on the front part of the weekend. If this occurs, Sunday should be warmer and drier with temperatures in the 50s/60s. These conditions are forecast to continue until the next upper trough from the west or a shortwave ahead of it moves through. Some ensembles are suggesting this could be as soon as Monday. When the next trough moves in, the current suggestion is that it should be a large and deep trough, with a large and deep surface low. This may lead to strong winds returning to the area, along with some more precipitation chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 358 AM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface winds through this afternoon will be light with occasional high clouds. A cold front will move through both terminals this evening with winds shifting to the northwest and gusts to 25-35 kts through the remainder of the night.

CLIMATE

Issued at 445 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Near record to record high temperatures are possible on Monday. Record highs for the date (February 09) are listed below (in Fahrenheit).

FEBRUARY 09 RECORDS =================================================== Location Record (Year) Forecast High =================================================== Goodland, KS..........78 (1976) 75 Hill City, KS.........81 (1996) 78 Burlington, CO........75 (1976) 74 McCook, NE............76 (1954) 75

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.