textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Monday for all of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska, where air temps and heat indices ~105-110F and overnight lows in the 70's will lead to a high risk of heat related illnesses and place considerable stress on livestock and outdoor pets.

- A few severe storms are possible Monday aft-eve, mainly in eastern CO. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary hazard. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage.

- Potential for late aft-eve thunderstorms through mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 354 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge centered over the Rockies and adjacent portions of the Central and Southern Plains will persist through the short term period.

No significant changes; Heat Advisory remains in place, as-is.

Today-Tonight: Record breaking heat. As of 2 pm MDT (20 UTC), air temperatures were at or above 103F in most locations, hottest in Leoti, where the air temperature was 109F. High temperature records (for the date) have already been broken in Goodland, Burlington and McCook. Most locations have seen heat indices at or above 105F, hottest (110-114F) in northeast / lower elevation portions of the area where low-level moisture is relatively deeper and surface dewpoints require additional time to mix out. Diurnal Cu (and a turkey tower or two) has developed in vicinity of a poorly defined surface trough / weak low-level convergence zone over eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties where surface temperatures rapidly reached 104-108F, removing convective inhibition. While warm upper level temperatures (-2 to -3C at 500 mb) and a considerable amount of dry air aloft will tend to suppress convective development, a few high-based updrafts capable of producing brief/sporadic dry lightning strikes are possible until sunset. Expect overnight (Mon morning) lows ~70-80F, warmest along/east of Hwy 83.

Mon-Mon night: Mainly a persistence forecast. With little change in the synoptic pattern, expect sensible weather conditions similar to today. Guidance insists that scattered diurnal convection will develop in the typical, topographically favored areas of Colorado (e.g. Palmer Divide, Front Range) at peak heating, possibly assisted by small amplitude disturbances progressing anticyclonically around the ridge (i.e. NE-ENE from the Desert Southwest to central Rockies), though.. this is far from clear. With such weak steering flow beneath the ridge, one would think that convection developing on the Palmer Divide would be hard-pressed to progress east of the CO-KS border. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST exhibit poor model-to-model and run-to-run continuity, suggesting that mesoscale features (e.g. an MCV) emanating from upstream convection will play a role in convective development and coverage in the Goodland county warning area. With the above in mind, eastern CO appears to have the best chance for thunderstorms and brief, localized wind gusts ~70 mph.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Synoptically, not much has changed; the ridge that has been in place over the Four Corners region is still likely to stay nearly stationary over the next week. By Saturday, guidance is starting to signal that the ridge will begin to de-amplify as a trough moves along the US/Canada border. Throughout the week, there should be a few shortwaves moving through the area.

High temperatures for the week look to "cool" down to the mid to high 90s. Winds look to remain calm to breezy, with minimum relative humidity values staying above 25%.

Moving to precipitation chances for the period:

Tuesday's PoP's are currently forecast to be in the 30-60% range, with the highest percentages in eastern Colorado. Guidance indicates that the surface low just to the south of the CWA will likely remain there throughout the day. With the low stationary, winds should mainly be from the east-northeast, promoting upslope flow for showers/storms. After looking at instability and shear for severe storm potential, there are signs that if storms were develop, they would mainly stay on the marginal side. For the northwestern portion of the CWA, there is a 25-40% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation from the afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday still looks to have higher precipitation chances of the long-term period as a shortwave propagates through during the afternoon and evening. Guidance indicates a boundary moving in from the northwest toward the southeast, though models disagree on its exact location and timing. Currently, both the GFS and Canadian models show the boundary; however, the GFS brings it in late afternoon, whereas the Canadian delays it until early Thursday morning. Other guidance doesn't have the boundary. If it does materialize, severe storm potential would be marginal. PoPs are currently forecast to be 40-65% where once again eastern Colorado having the highest percentages. Eastern Colorado currently has a 2545% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation. Given this is roughly four days out, it will be interesting to see how guidance trends for the location and speed of the boundary.

For the rest of the week and weekend, PoPs steadily decrease. Thursdays chances are around 2030%, and Friday through Sunday stays around 10-20% each day. However, with shortwaves passing through, any favorable lifting mechanism, like a boundary or front, could nudge these precipitation chances up or down as we get closer.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A brief high-based updraft capable of producing a dry lightning strike cannot be ruled out near the Goodland terminal late this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light/variable winds are expected to rule through the TAF period at both terminals.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004- 013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.