textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog/freezing fog is forecast to develop overnight and may extend as far back as Highway 25; dense fog is possible. Confidence in fog developing is around 50% but less than 1 mile in visibility is 20-30%.

- Pockets of freezing drizzle or a light wintry mix is possible (10-15% chance of occurring) overnight currently favoring Gove, Sheridan, Graham and Norton counties.

- Most of next week, there are chances for precipitation across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1124 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Weak embedded waves within the mid level flow are traversing across the area leading to an increase in echoes across eastern portions of the forecast area. At the surface, looking at forecast soundings and cross sections there is dry air that is still needing to be overcome so think the majority of what is currently being seen is virga. 280K isentropic analysis suggests that there may be pockets for localized freezing drizzle or a sleet/snow/freezing rain mix to occur across the Graham/Norton county areas through the afternoon.

This evening and overnight, a climatologically favorable pattern for fog and stratus presents itself. Fog is forecast to be developed around 09Z but could be as early as 05-06Z depending on how quickly saturation can occur. Temperatures are forecast to be below freezing leading to freezing fog concerns. Am opting to leave mainly patchy wording in the forecast for now as any periods of light precip could break up the fog for a bit. There is dense fog potential as well due to the how deep some forecast guidance suggests the low level saturation to be. If it wasn't for some light precipitation potential would opt for area wording and not patchy. Confidence in fog potential 1-5sm is around 50% and less than 1SM is around 20-30%. Long duration dense fog is currently around 10% which is precluding the issue of a Dense Fog Advisory.

Now to the precipitation potential for tonight. Forcing does not look as favorable as what was the past few days. Guidance has trended towards more "pockets" of freezing drizzle or a light wintry mix overnight. This is characterized by -1 to -2 omega the 925-850mb level. The tricky part of the forecast which does lower my confidence in the precipitation side of things is that when the low level omega becomes more broad it doesn't correlate enough with deep saturation seen in soundings which may lower the ability for any "ice crystals" to develop. Due to the low confidence in the coverage and duration of the freezing drizzle or wintry mix am opting to hold off on any Winter Weather Advisories for now.

Monday, fog and any potential winter weather is forest to come to an end mid morning. Winds are however forecast to increase mainly along and west of Highway 25 as a pressure gradient develop across the area. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph are currently forecast to occur. Thankfully fire weather does not look to be a concern as the strongest winds are forecast to occur along and east of the Kansas/Colorado line where humidity values around 30% are currently forecast to reside. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 40s across the east to the upper 60s across eastern Colorado.

Monday night, moisture advection again is forecast to occur from the south. Fog and stratus will again be a concern and has potential to be a bit more widespread than tonight. There is however a better signal for precipitation to occur as well due to stronger low level omega again in the 925-850 mb level. There is a also a stout 700mb short wave and vorticity maxima that is forecast to move across the area as well further increasing confidence in precipitation to occur due to the additional lift. A developing surface low is also forecast to be in place as well which is forecast to favor precipitation across the eastern portion of the forecast area and the northern due to a cold front associated with the back end of the low. If the low could remain a bit further west then some isolated thunderstorms could be possible across Gove and Graham counties as guidance indicates around 500 j/kg of MUCAPE advecting into the area with the moisture; but confidence in that less than 10% at this time. On the wraparound side with the cold front favoring northern and northwest portions of the area. Light rain is currently favored but if the area can be cold enough or if temperatures could fall locally a bit more due to latent heat release from the rainfall then a change over to a wet snow could be possible as wet bulb zero on the GFS and ECMWF do support this. If snow were to occur little to no impacts would be expected with minimal snow amounts due to the warm ground temperatures. The one part of that statement that could humble me is that guidance does suggest around 100 j/kg of MUCAPE which could lead to locally higher amounts but currently members of the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest that amounts would max out around an inch locally.

Tuesday, precipitation chances are forecast to continue across the majority of the forecast area and be tied to the cold front but remain forecast as mainly rainfall. A gradual northwest to southeast end to the precipitation is forecast to occur as we head into Tuesday evening. High temperatures for the day will be tied to the position of the low and how quickly it moves off to the east. Highs are currently forecast in the upper 40s/50s across the north and mid 60s to the south. Confidence is not high enough to favor changes at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 103 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Starting the extended period Wednesday, surface troughing is forecast to be in place across the area. Winds are forecast to remain lighter due to the lack of any pressure gradients. Have some concerns that current forecast from the NBM is to warm as cloud cover may be a bit to thick and possible even linger as well.

Thursday troughing across the west starts to become a bit more vigorous as strong consensus of a dry line developing is seen as well. A tightening pressure gradient also does continue to lead to some concerns of critical fire weather conditions behind the dry line. Confidence in any hazards currently is fairly low as a large spread in the 25-75th percentile dew points indicates that the dry line could set up further west as well. Thursday evening is when there is some potential for a bit more activity in the weather. A surface low is progged to develop currently across southeast Colorado. In fact the consensus of low position is a bit further west according to the ECMWF ensembles than what deterministic suggests which if it were to verify then precipitation chances and thunder chances may increase for eastern portions of the area. Currently am leaning towards an increase in thunderstorm potential Thursday night as additional upper level forcing in the form of 250mb jet moves across the area and the ECMWF does favor the westward trend of the dryline. This currently seems a bit more reasonable as the GFS an over mixing bias and frequently shoves the dryline to far east. GEFS spaghetti models also does show a split signal for the trough to eject a little further north as well which would further increase this scenario.

As we head into Friday the track and the location of the low will then have major influences on the weather. A cold front is forecast to move through the area along with a mid level inverted trough also leading to some additional forcing. Snow chances may increase across the northwest portion of the area including the potential for accumulating snow as some of the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles suggest. There is also the potential for the forecast area to be dry slotted which seems to be what the majority of guidance suggests at the moment. So will see how things trend over the coming days. Next weekend is currently forecasted for more above normal temperatures but another low spinning across across the SW CONUS and another potential cold front could alter the forecast; confidence in either is to low to go into further detail currently.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1020 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions currently with ESE winds around 10 knots and is forecast to continue for a few hours. Lighter winds are forecast to move into GLD around 20Z or so as we lose some pressure gradient induced wind. Focus is on tonight as a classic signal for stratus or fog is seen. MCK is forecast to fall to at least IFR in stratus around 11Z or so. There is the signal for fog and dense fog but confidence is to low to going lower on visibilities but there is a 10-20% chance of less than one half mile occurring. Can't completely rule out some freezing drizzle as well. With temperatures forecast to be below freezing be aware of icing as well even with the fog.

GLD is forecast to remain east of the fog/stratus deck as of now but keep an eye out on any potentially westward shifts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.