textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm Memorial Day with temperatures forecast to reach the 90s. Thunderstorms are possible, mainly east of Highway 83, during the afternoon and evening hours. A few wind gusts to around 60 are possible.

- Tuesday's forecast has gusts winds around 25-40 mph for Eastern Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1203 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Today, a 500mb low pushes over the Four Corners region, allowing a low disturbance to form in the lee of the Rockies. This will allow an 850mb Colorado low to form, promoting a round of storms this afternoon. These storms look to largely remain west of KS 27, focusing on eastern Colorado. Storms look to start forming around 20- 22Z tomorrow, lasting until around 5-7Z. There is around a thousand joules of CAPE but very little shear with these storms, suggesting the main threat is of a microburst. With that, winds up to 60 MPH would be possible, which could once again cause localized blowing dust.

Tonight, as the lows from the west get closer, southerly flow looks to strengthen, kicking up the 850 mb LLJ. A nocturnal inversion looks to keep most of these winds reaching the surface, but occasional gusts around 20 kts are possible. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the 50s to low 60s.

Tomorrow, a 500 mb large low over the northwestern CONUS will have absorbed the aforementioned Four Corners low as a trough axis. As this axis pushes over the Rockies, southerly flow will increase. Similar features can be found in lower levels of the column, but none of them are overly strong. Flow up to around 500 mb looks to cap out around 30-35 kts, meaning very strong gusts are unlikely. Looking at the surface, pressure rises look to be about 1 mb an hour. This is strong enough to support sustained winds around 20-25 kts, but the threat for 40 MPH sustained winds is much lower than 24 hours ago. It is worth noting, any gusts above 40 kts will have the potential for causing blowing dust. We could also see some scattered storms across the CWA tomorrow afternoon, but severe weather looks unlikely.

Tomorrow night, temperatures are forecast to cool into the 50s again, kept stable by cloud cover. Lingering showers may persist throughout the night, but severe weather is not expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

The long term synoptic setup is looking rather unsettled over the next 3-7 days. An upper level ridge will attempt to establish itself across the central CONUS by the middle of this week. However, a plume of Pacific moisture currently over the Four Corners region looks to undercut the ridge. This will keep the warm and dry conditions well to the north of the area. Currently, seasonable temperatures look to persist for the middle of the week into the weekend. The plume of Pacific moisture will usher in above normal PWATs to the region. By late Wednesday showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin developing. While still a few days out, there does look to be the chance (20-35%) for some strong to severe storms during the afternoon/evening hours. At this time the main threats would be large hail, heavy rain, and possibly an isolated tornado chance (<2%). Showers look to congeal into a larger band during the overnight Wednesday into Thursday. This would lead to greater chances for periodic light to moderate rainfall through the overnight into Thursday morning. The timing of this does differ some amongst models with some showing lesser chances for precipitation during the day Thursday due to a quicker moving system.

Friday looks to see seasonable temperatures persist with the possibility for a few isolated showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. By the weekend the aforementioned low that settled in over the Great Basin looks to finally trek out of the region. As this disturbance shifts to the north towards Canada, another push of moisture looks to arrive from the south/southwest. This would lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Models do differ slightly with the GFS showing heavier precipitation remaining farther west across portions of Colorado. The Euro keeps the heaviest precipitation over Kansas but slightly east of the CWA. There is still time for things to be shift but overall, there is increasing chances for more precipitation for the upcoming weekend into the start of next week. However, the exact timing and location should come into better focus over the next few days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for both KGLD and KMCK. Winds throughout the period will be varying between the south-southwest and south-southeast, sometimes rapidly jumping between the two. There is a chance storms will move through the region this afternoon and evening, which may impact KGLD and KMCK. KMCK is expected to see LLWS overnight around 200-400 feet AGL from the south-southwest at 40 kts, ending a little after sunrise.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.