textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather is forecast late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Eastern Colorado has the highest chances for severe weather, but the entire area has a chance. Large hail potentially reaching 4 inches in diameter, wind gusts of 60-80 mph, and maybe a tornado or two are possible.

- Locations that received heavy rain during the past several days are more prone to experience flash flooding through the next 24-48 hours. Flood Watch has been expanded to account for this.

- Severe weather chances continue through at least Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 424 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Showers and storms continue to move across the area early this morning as a low pressure system deepens southwest of the area and an upper low continues to swing east through the Plains. As the surface low shifts further south and the upper low shifts further east, the remaining bands of storms and showers should shift southeast out of the area and end within a few hours of sunrise. This should allow the cloud cover to thin out as the morning goes on and lead to partly cloudy skies across the area. With the area remaining under northwest flow aloft and little change in air mass, temperatures should again warm into the 70s with maybe a few 80s. Some smoke from wildfires in the west may move over the area high in the sky and help keep temperatures more in the 70s.

Late this afternoon and into the evening hours, storms are forecast to again fire up along the Front Range and potentially in Eastern Colorado with the low level flow still from the east/southeast. If the storms develop in Eastern Colorado, then western portions of the area could see storms as early as 4-7pm MT. Otherwise, the storms from the Front Range should push east and enter the area after 9pm MT. The main hindrance for storm development looks to be a potential cap in place across the west. Should the cap hold, the severe chances would be much lower as likely cluster of storms late in the evening and overnight would be the only storms to move through. These storms would still pose a severe wind and maybe severe hail risk. Flooding would also be possible with high PWATs and potential training of storms in clusters. Should the cap break, very strong storms would then form in the area and could produce very large hail and maybe a tornado or two. Regardless of which scenario occurs, CAPE is likely to decrease as the storms move east and lower their intensity. With this, the chances for significant severe weather are largely confined to Eastern Colorado, maybe into adjacent counties.

As mentioned prior, the storm chances are forecast to linger all night and potentially into tomorrow morning. With the repeated rounds of storms possible and chances for an additional few inches, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch across much of the area that has seen heavy rainfall the past few days. It won't take much for some flooding unfortunately. With the cloud cover and storms, temperatures are forecast to stay in the 60s or higher through the night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday for the county warning area (CWA). Our region is forecast to be in a mostly zonal flow with multiple shortwaves traversing through the area. Severe weather is possible for the CWA with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) of 60-90% Thursday. Instability has decreased since yesterday's model runs, but the environment is still supportive of a wind and hail risk with CAPE around 1000 J/kg and around 20 knots of deep-layer shear. Model soundings show a skinny CAPE profile. This, combined with recent substantial rainfall across the CWA, raises flooding concerns.

Friday, we transition to more of a weak ridging pattern with an incoming trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Expect sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 80s. Saturday through the end of the forecast period continues to warm with high temperatures forecast in the 90s to low 100s for the CWA. Saturday onward will also be fairly windy with afternoon gusts around 35 mph possible for our Colorado counties.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 537 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Storms have cause ceilings to be inconsistent to start the day. The forecast still calls for ceilings to generally be between 500-1500ft through about 14-16Z, but VFR conditions are possible. VFR conditions are likely after 16-18Z with winds roughly from the southeast around 10-15 kts. Storms are expected to move over the terminals again, especially after 06Z. The storms could start as early as 00Z. If the storms form, they may be severe with large hail and wind gusts above 50-70 kts. The earlier the storms form, the more likely they are to be severe. Low ceilings and fog will be possible close to 09-12Z, but showers/storms may interfere and keep ceilings above 3000ft.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1205 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

** Updated 6/24/26 425 AM MDT **

Assuming everything can remain on par with the current forecast, additional, perhaps even more impactful flooding may occur tonight as storms merge into an MCS from discrete cells from Colorado. Very high PWATS around 1.5 inches are forecast to remain but the more concerning feature I'm seeing with current guidance is slower corfidi vectors which may lead to more of a backbuilding and training threat. With this and guidance suggesting a few inches of QPF are possible, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to cover counties from Logan to Wallace to Kit Carson and north. These areas also saw an estimated 1-3 inches from storms Tuesday night with parts of Kit Carson county potentially seeing 4+".

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029. CO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for COZ090-091. NE...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NEZ079>081.