textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Light wintry precipitation is occurring this morning. A rain/snow mix will be most common, but freezing rain and freezing drizzle is still possible.

- Above average highs expected late this week through early next week.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions forecast Saturday through Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 222 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

This morning, a 500 mb trough is moving over the area. This is producing light precipitation across most of the area. We're still expecting less than 0.05 inch of QPF. As of 8Z, most of the area is still a couple of degrees above freezing. This is allowing the dominant P-type to be rain with some snow and graupel mixed in.

As the night progresses, temperature will dip below freezing, which will allow snow to become more common and may lead to some icing issues. Recently fallen rain may become black ice and as we get closer to sunrise, our saturated layer will become thinner. This could cause the dendritic growth layer to be above the upper level of the saturated layer, preventing any snow from forming. This would lead to drizzle, likely freezing drizzle, mainly along and east of KS 25 between 11-15Z. Alternatively, surface temperatures may cool to below freezing while the warm nose remains. This would promote freezing rain. Or, the entire saturated layer dries up and we just have lingering stratus this morning with little precipitation once the majority of the CWA drops to below freezing.

Scenario 1 and 2 are problematic, as this would lead to some light ice accumulation, leading to slick roads. In any case, precipitation will be mostly over with by 14Z and any lingering precipitation gone by 18Z. Thankfully, highs during the day are expected to warm to around 50, allowing any frozen precipitation to melt rather quickly.

During the day today, a strong ridge over the Great Basin will put us in northwesterly flow aloft. This will create a blocking pattern as the ridge moves towards the Great Plains, allowing temperatures to be unseasonably warm and reducing precipitation chances to basically 0 for the rest of the short-term.

Thursday, as a dry 850 mb trough moves over the Great Plains, a moderate pressure gradient looks to set up. This would produce an 850 mb LLJ of around 30-45 kts around 12Z that weakens throughout the day. We likely will not be mixing well that early in the morning, but as we heat up throughout the day, the LLJ will weaken. By the time we start mixing into the 850 mb LLJ, it'll be around 25- 35 kts, which could allow similarly strong gusts to mix to the surface. This does create some elevated fire weather concerns, as RH values will be around 20-25% in eastern Colorado. However, Red Flag criteria is not likely to be met. Temperatures Thursday are currently forecast to warm into the mid to upper 60s, but there a few locations might even hit 70. Overnight Thursday looks to remain fairly warm, with temperatures only cooling into the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 252 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Northwesterly flow looks to still be in place over the forecast area Friday morning. A pronounced 80-100 kt upper-level jet streak embedded in the flow is forecast to move southeastward throughout the day on Friday, which would allow a surface region of high pressure in its left entrance region to encroach into the United States. As this occurs, northerly surface winds would overspread the forecast region. Even so, ensemble guidance indicates that high temperatures Friday have a 90% chance of being in the low to mid-60s or higher.

Southerly flow could set up ahead of another shortwave trough Friday night and into Saturday, with lows forecasted in the upper-20s to low-30s. As this system moves eastward, westerly to southwesterly surface winds could set up across portions of the CWA, and lead to dryer conditions Saturday afternoon. RH values for portions of East Colorado could fall into the mid-teens. Locally critical fire weather could be a concern, with wind gusts around 25 kts possible. The major limiting factor for this event appears to be the moisture. There is some uncertainty as to how strong the westerly winds will be for this event, and how long they will last, which could inhibit how low RH values could reach. Additionally, moist air from the Gulf of America may be allowed to enter the southerly flow into the region, which may help boost moisture content. Currently, confidence is about 20% that RH will be able to drop low enough that a Red Flag Warning may be needed.

Warm and dry condition are forecasted to continue Sunday and Monday, as ridging begins to establish itself across the forecast region. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper-60s both days, with about a 50% chance of temperatures at or above 70 across the CWA Monday. RH values are once again forecasted to be in the mid to upper-teens both Sunday and Monday for portions of East Colorado, with wind gusts currently forecasted in the mid to upper-teens. Critical fire weather is not yet a concern due to wind gusts forecasted to be lower, but ensemble guidance indicates about a 25% chance for wind gusts 25 mph or higher both days. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed are about 10% or less, but could increase if wind gusts trend higher.

Cooler conditions are forecasted to set up by the overnight hours on Monday, and could persist into the overnight hours Tuesday. Forecast highs are in the mid to upper-50s across most of the CWA Tuesday, with a slight chance for winter weather overnight and into Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 321 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

KGLD and KMCK may see MVFR conditions returning over the next several hours as stratus and wintry mix moves across the region. KGLD will likely not see any more precipitation after 12Z while KMCK could see the mix and some freezing fog/drizzle last until around 13-15Z. Low-level and surface icing is a major threat for both sites this morning.

Once the stratus lifts, north-northwesterly winds will be favored until around sunset when they become light and variable. There is a 20% chance of LLWS for KMCK starting around 9Z. It's so unlikely, it was left out of the TAF.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.