textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms are again forecast to develop this afternoon and move into at least eastern Colorado. A 20% chance of a rogue strong to severe storm capable of hail up to quarters.

- There is a 20% chance of some snow mixing in during the early morning hours Tuesday and a less than 5% chance of a slushy accumulation.

- Fog perhaps dense, and frost is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Showers and storms potential continues Tuesday through the end of the work week. Favored timeframe is Wednesday night through Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 108 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Mid level troughing is in place across the area with surface troughing ongoing. The surface troughing is forecast to lead to breezy northerly winds through the day with gusts up to 30 mph. This afternoon a 500mb shortwave is forecast to move off the Front Range leading to the development of showers and storms moving off of the Front Range and moving towards Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO) during the afternoon hours. RAP forecast sounds indicate up to 500 j/kg of ML and MUCAPE and steep lapse rates around 7.5-8.0 C/KM and wind shear of 35-45 knots. Fairly similar environment to yesterday other than the weaker CAPE but an isolated instance or two of hail up to quarter size is possible if a strong enough of an updraft can occur. Can't completely rule out a landspout either with developing updrafts as RAP indicates a potential boundary draped across western Kit Carson and moving south into western Cheyenne (CO) but think this threat is very small as I would like to see a bit more unstable lapse rates. A big caveat to any potential for strong to severe storms is the current stratus lingering across eastern Colorado, if it remains then the instability would be even more minimal. Rain is forecast to continue through the evening mainly favoring those along and north of Interstate 70 but overall not currently anticipating any impacts overnight.

A caveat to this however is the potential for some rate driven change over to snow along a very narrow 700mb frontogenesis band after 3am mountain time. This is a low confidence scenario currently but all of the ECMWF ensemble members supports at least some light snow occurring across Yuma, and western Dundy and Cheyenne (KS). This may be a temperature dependent scenario as well especially if temperatures can remain a little warmer to help keep the wet bulbing temperature a little warmer. If everything can come together right I can't rule out a couple inches of snowfall in a very narrow corridor especially if convective parameters can come together. The 00Z EFI is also showing a small corridor of a shift of tails across eastern Yuma county which does raise my concern a bit which is in the area where 12Z NAM shows some CAPE in the 850-800mb layer. Confidence of a couple inches of snow is less than 5% but around 20% that some of the rain could transition over as most guidance's wet bulb zero supports this as well.

Further south we will again need to keep an eye on fog and drizzle formation as winds are forecast to become more easterly and low levels saturate and weak omega develops around 850mb. Confidence is not quite there to put fog into the forecast but will continue to keep an eye on this potential. Despite current forecast temperatures being below 36 degrees am opting to not issue a Frost Advisory due to the cloud cover which actually may help isolate the surface and keep temperatures even warmer than forecast.

Rain shower potential continues through Tuesday morning with clouds potentially lingering through the day. Due for the concerns of thick clouds have brought down high temperatures. I didn't completely tank them as they could be some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon but if these breaks do not occur then temperatures would be even cooler and struggle to get out of the 40s for highs. A shortwave is forecast to move NW to SE across the area during the afternoon hours bringing another potential for showers and storms. Currently severe weather is not expected due to CAPE around 50-100 j/kg. The one caveat though is if outflow can emanate from this convection and make it's own mesoscale pressure rises. If this is the case, then severe winds around 60 mph would be possible due to strong flow around 700mb. This would also raise the concern of a haboob as NASASPORT currently shows western portions of the area still only have less than 2% 0-10cm soil moisture in place. A big caveat to this potential however is if we stay socked in clouds all day which would eliminate any instability and how much rain occurs overnight which may be enough to settle the dirt. This threat is very conditional and more is playing against it than for it but is something that will need to be monitored. Tuesday night, a surface high is forecast to be in place across northern portions of the area and is forecast to have temperatures fall into the low 30s due to the light winds in place. A bit of a better signal for fog is seen as well as the 12 HREF is showing 40% probabilities of half mile or less visibilities mainly for northern areas; due to this have added in patchy fog into the forecast. If the fog does develop that could potentially keep temperatures a few degrees warmer as well. Conversely if fog is slower to develop and temperatures are able to fall then some concern for freezing fog may present itself as well. With the light winds there is concern for frost to develop as humidity is forecast to be higher due to the above mentioned fog concerns. I did add frost into the forecast but may only be confined to where fog does not form at.

Wednesday, the high pressure system is forecast to depart the area to the east by late morning. The focus then turns to some shortwaves move into the area during the afternoon hours along with the western portion of the area being the right entrance region of a 500mb jet streak and potent 250mb jet streak which is forecast to further enhance lift. Moisture is forecast to increase as well leading to increasing coverage of rainfall currently favoring western portions of the forecast area. Currently not anticipating any severe weather but the magnitude of the jet streaks in play will need to keep an eye on some potential high shear/low CAPE storm potential especially with steep lapse rates in place. High temperatures for the day are currently forecast in the mid 60s across the entire area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 716 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Thursday, our region is forecast in a southwest upper-level flow downstream of a trough in the western CONUS. This will allow multiple shortwaves to traverse through the region bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 44-87% Thursday, with the southwest portion of the area on the higher end. Rain is expected in the morning and weak instability may support thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thunderstorm potential diminishes after sundown, but overnight showers are likely with PoPs ranging from 20-65% overnight Thursday into Friday. Temperatures are forecast to be unseasonably cool with highs forecast in the mid 50s to low 60s.

We remain in a southwest upper-level flow for Friday, though it is weaker overall. Several shortwave passages and weak instability will bring chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms. PoPs of 25-55% are forecast for the northern and western county warning area (CWA). Temperatures remain unseasonably cool with high temperatures forecast in the high 50s to low 60s.

Going in to the weekend, we transition to more of a ridge pattern. Expect mostly sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Saturday and Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours Sunday. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the high teens with winds gusts around 25 mph possible for the western CWA. RH values will likely change in response to showers and thunderstorms earlier in the week, but still something to monitor for as the week progresses. Monday, we have potential for a active pattern returning due to a low pressure system off the west coast. GEFS Ensemble members greatly vary on the track and intensity of this system, so low confidence on specifics at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 411 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to start this TAF period. Still watching for the potential for some light rain to impact GLD but confidence is not high enough to do anything other than PROB30 at this time. Stratus is forecast to develop around or just after 06Z with ceilings falling to IFR and a 40% chance of LIFR. Still continuing to watch the potential for rain showers at MCK as well. Current guidance suggests that after 12Z may be the more favored time but want to see how the developing convection off of the Front Range progresses before putting into the TAF.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.