textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy freezing fog through this morning west of Highway 25 and northeast Colorado.

- Large temperature gradient across the area today, with colder temperatures generally east of Highway 83/23 and milder temperatures in Colorado.

- Potential for strong/severe NNW winds Wednesday night into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

Low clouds and patchy freezing fog will persist through this morning. The fog will be confined to western areas, west of Highway 25 and northeast Colorado, on the leading edge of the shallow cold air mass. However, as winds turn to south and eventually southwest this morning, the downslope component will be working against the fog and dense fog, if any at all, should be patchy. The low clouds begin to move out as those southwest winds spread over the rest of the area this afternoon. However, there will still be considerable high clouds through the day. Temperatures tricky once again, but have generally leaned toward the colder side of guidance, especially in eastern areas, but confidence is low and temperatures could be a bit warmer if clouds have less influence. The high clouds will diminish tonight with lows in the 20s and light west winds. HRRR suggests patchy fog along/ahead of the retreating warm front/surface trough in eastern areas towards 12z, but confidence is low due to the unfavorable westerly winds. If fog does develop, it would be patchy in nature.

Monday will see a return of northwest flow and mild temperatures as the cold air mass moves out. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Some fire weather potential may develop in the afternoon in Colorado and the Kansas/Colorado border area. Wind speeds increase in the morning in those areas with gusts up to 30 kts possible through 18z, but then models show winds decreasing in the afternoon. Relative humidity drops into the teens as the winds are decreasing, casting some doubt on whether the two parameters can occur at the same time for fire weather. For now, will wait and see if those winds can persist a little longer before addressing with any products. Monday night will be mostly clear with light winds and lows in the 20s.

A shortwave trough comes through the northwest flow on Tuesday, but lacks moisture and no precipitation is expected. Temperatures warm a bit more with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Fire weather may once again be a concern, mainly in western areas, with afternoon relative humidity minimums dropping into the teens and gusty northwest winds possible as the upper shortwave axis passes. Models show gusts to around 30-40 mph possible if full mixing to 1 km can be realized as suggested by mixing height forecasts. Lows Tuesday night will be around 30.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 150 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

Overview: Robust shortwave energy accompanying a 150-175 knot NW upper level jet moving ashore the Pacific Northwest Wed morning will evolve into a powerful mid-latitude cyclone that rapidly progresses east across the northern Rockies and Dakotas (Wed), Upper Midwest (Wed night) and Great Lakes (Thu). Long range guidance suggests that a progressive and largely unidirectional flow pattern will prevail late this week through early next week.

Wed: Expect above average temperatures (60's) and potentially breezy S to WSW winds associated with a deepening mid-latitude cyclone in the lee of the northern Rockies. Dangerous fire weather conditions possible. Forecast soundings suggest that thick upper level cloud cover (for portions of the day, at least) and otherwise shallow mixing may prevent stronger SW-WSW low-level flow from reaching the surface.. limiting the magnitude and/or extent of adverse fire weather conditions.

Wed night-Thu: 00Z operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF suggest that strong NW-NNW winds will develop in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage Wed night into Thu (~06-18Z Thu) as a deep mid-latitude cyclone progresses eastward from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes. From a pattern recognition standpoint, strong winds are a good bet. Both the magnitude and areal extent of strong winds will, however, highly depend upon the evolution/track of the aforementioned mid-latitude cyclone.. a system that won't even begin to develop until Wed.

Fri-Sun: Predominantly dry conditions. Below average forecast confidence w/regard to temperatures. Long range guidance indicates that an active, progressive (albeit largely unidirectional) upper level pattern will prevail over the CONUS late this week through next weekend. In such a pattern -- i.e. a pattern that tends to favor the development of episodic lee cyclones (the modest and progressive variety) -- considerable day-to-day fluctuations in temperature and wind speed/direction are possible.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 409 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

At KGLD...IFR expected to prevail through this morning due to low ceilings. Patchy fog may reduce visibility to less than 1 mile for a few hours early this morning. A return to VFR is expected around 18z with southwesterly surface winds scouring out the low clouds and fog. This may occur an hour or two earlier, with considerable uncertainty. VFR then expected to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.

At KMCK...IFR expected to prevail through this afternoon due to low ceilings. May see occasional MVFR ceilings, especially this afternoon. A return to VFR is expected around 20z with southwesterly surface winds scouring out the low clouds. VFR then expected to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.