textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures expected through the remainder of the work week.

- Breezy to strong south winds may lead to blowing dust and hazardous travel conditions on Friday.

- Precipitation chances return over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 855 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The fog has dissipated and the Dense Fog Advisory allowed to expire.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Patchy, and occasionally dense fog is expected tonight, particularly along and east of U.S. Highway 83. Development is expected over the next couple of hours, as dewpoint depressions have fallen to or below 3 F across portions of Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas. Most model guidance suggests that visibilities around 4 miles can be expected, though localized patches near a quarter mile can't be ruled out. Fog is expected to lift between 15 and 16Z (10 and 11 AM CT) as solar heating begins to become dominant.

Ridging is currently overhead at 500-mb, with a closed upper low off the California Coast. A 60-70 kt jet streak will be along the leading edge of this upper low, continuing to support a surface low across portions of Nevada and Utah. As such, southerly flow is expected across the forecast area today, though elevated cirrus may limit daytime heating a little bit. High temperatures are currently forecast in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area, with the highest temperatures focused along the Kansas Highway 27 and U.S. Highway 385 Corridors.

Breezy conditions are expected this afternoon, as the surface low to the west and a surface high in the midwest strengthen. Winds are likely to sustain in the 10-15 mph range based on HREF guidance, with most of the area over a 40% chance of seeing gusts over 30 mph. This is supported by GFS and RAP model soundings, which show around 25-30 mph winds at the top of the low-level mixed layer, and could mix down to the surface during the afternoon.

GEFS and EC ensembles show a shortwave trough embedded at the base of the larger low beginning to lift northeastward along with the jet streak at the leading edge of the low Thursday evening. As this occurs, the attendant surface low in Nevada will move into the Northern Rockies, deepening with time. This is expected to keep southerly flow abnormally strong throughout the night, with most areas along and west of Highway 83 at a 75% chance of sustained winds over 15 mph according to NBM guidance. Alongside cloud cover, this is expected to keep low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, with perhaps some lower 60s as well. Additionally, areas that have seen fog over the past few nights will likely catch a break due to these higher temperatures.

The surface low is expected to continue strengthening throughout the day Friday with the help of divergence aloft and lee cyclogenesis in the Northern High Plains. Strong southerly flow is expected to continue through the evening hours ahead of a cold front. Model guidance is supportive of winds sustained between 20-30 mph, with gusts around 40 mph. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s seem likely, with perhaps some mid to upper 80s particularly across portions of Southwest Nebraska and Northeast Colorado. Blowing dust may be a concern with these strong winds. NBM mixing heights are higher (4-6000 ft) along and west of Kansas Highway 27, while they are lower (2-3000 ft) along and east of U.S. Highway 83. The higher mixing heights across the west would create more hazy, low air quality conditions, as dust mixes through a higher depth. However, there is about 10-20% confidence that visibilities drop to around 1- 3 miles in dust plumes to the east.

The cold front is not forecast to begin traversing the forecast area until around midnight MDT Saturday, as shown by LREF standard deviation guidance. Precipitation is expected to be in the area along the front. Specifically, NBM suggests that areas along and west of U.S. Highway 83 have a 70% chance or higher of receiving greater than 0.1 inches of rain Saturday. This will come with a small chance of flash flooding as the upper low stalls out over the 4-Corners Region. There is a low-confidence (5%), extreme scenario where greater than 3 inches of rain fall across portions of West- Central Kansas and East-Central Colorado. EFI (EC Extreme Forecast Index) values for QPF are between 0.7 and 0.8, with Shift of Tails (the degree to which the forecast goes beyond the 2005-2026 observed climate maximum percentile) near 1. If this scenario can occur, a flash flooding risk would be possible Saturday, and possibly extend into the long term period Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 233 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

On Sunday and into Tuesday morning, a low pressure over the Four Corners region will provide southwesterly flow aloft is still persistent over the forecast area until Monday evening. During this time, a high-pressure system over the Gulf will start bringing in low- to mid-level moisture. With the vorticity and moisture advection, this could lead to long lasting showers over the area until Monday evening. Showers on Sunday and Monday are forecast to be widespread across the County Warning Area (CWA). There is high confidence (70%) that rain totals could exceed a tenth (0.10) of an inch over the area. Precipitation will continue from the short term period and persist until early Tuesday morning.

During this event, northerly cold air advection will consistently cool down temperatures. High temperatures for Sunday are forecast to be in the 50s to low 60s and then cooling 5 to 7 degrees. Low temperatures for Monday are forecast to be from the mid 40s in the southeast and mid 30s in the northwest of the CWA and then cool down an additional 5 to 8 degrees Tuesday. With this, there is potential for a brief period of near freezing temperatures before the precipitation moves out, introducing a brief rain/snow mix. The most likely area to see this mix is northwest of a line from Vona, Colorado to Swanson Lake around sunrise Tuesday morning. No snow accumulation is expected at this point.

On Tuesday, the pattern starts to become uncertain as the trough weakens and slides north over the Kansas-Nebraska state line. Once it moves through, a ridge axis will slide into the area. While it is favored for the ridge to pass through on Tuesday, there are some timing issues within guidance that could either speed up or delay the ridge. If the ridge speeds up, this could lead to showers moving out of the area sooner than expected and help temperatures increase. If the ridge slows down, we then could see showers midday tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures. After this, the ridge will lead into a warming trend lasting into Wednesday with highs in the mid 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 444 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

KMCK is forecast to see the IFR visibilities remain, and likely worsen, over the next several hours before returning to VFR in the mid-morning. Both KGLD and KMCK will see gusty winds start in the mid to late morning, persisting through the period. Most gusts will be in the 18-25 kts range, but some gusts closer to 30 kts are possible. KMCK also has been showing a decent sign of LLWS around sunrise Friday morning from the south-southwest at 40 kts around 300 feet AGL. It is possible surface winds are strong enough that LLWS does not form.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.