textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Another day of breezy NW winds with gusts to 35 mph today.

- Light winds/warmer temps with highs in the 70's on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Synoptic Overview: A vigorous upper level low in eastern South Dakota at 06Z this morning will lift ENE across the Upper Midwest (today) and Upper Great Lakes (tonight). NW flow aloft will prevail over the Central Plains Sun-Sun night, between a west CONUS ridge and east CONUS trough.

Today: Modest surface high pressure, associated with synoptic subsidence in the wake of the departing upper low, will extend southward from the Dakotas to the Central and Southern Plains today. In spite of a baggy and ill-defined MSLP pattern, a relatively tight 850 mb height gradient will, nevertheless, supply the 'raw material' (~30-35 knot NW flow) for vertical mixing to transport to the surface during the late morning and afternoon. Expect NW winds ~20-30 mph. Gusts to ~40 mph are possible, mainly late this morning and early this afternoon.. before the 850 mb height gradient slackens, low-level flow weakens to ~25-30 knots and vertical wind profiles become more homogenous. Expect highs in the lower-mid 60's and minimum relative humidity readings around 15-25%. From a fire weather standpoint, RH appears to be the limiting factor today. For comparison, RH bottomed-out at 10-15% on Friday.

Tonight: With surface high pressure over the Central Plains, winds will rapidly become light and variable after sunset. Expect overnight (Sun morning) lows in the mid 20's to lower 30's.

Sunday: While surface high pressure in central KS will shift eastward into western MO during the day, guidance indicates that [1] the continued presence of an 850 mb ridge over the Central Plains and [2] absence of surface pressure falls / lee trough development in CO will hinder/delay the establishment of southerly return flow. Expect light winds and a modest warming trend, with high's in the upper 60's to lower 70's.

Sunday Night: Guidance indicates that modest low-level southerly return flow will commence in western KS during the late evening and overnight, as a broad lee trough develops in CO. At the same time, a colder airmass associated with Canadian high pressure will extend southward through the Dakotas and into Nebraska. A tightening thermal gradient and strengthening frontogenesis could facilitate the development of low stratus over far N and NE portions of the area by sunrise. At present, expect clear skies with overnight (Mon morning) lows in the 30's.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Northwesterly upper-level flow looks to be in place over the forecast region Monday morning, as a 500-mb trough embedded in the flow begins to traverse the Great Lakes Region. As this process occurs, a surface high pressure system following the trough will enter the United States from Canada. A cold front ahead of the high looks to come through the forecast region during the morning and afternoon hours. Timing of the cold front remains uncertain, as NBM 75th-25th percentile max temperature differences across much of Northwest Kansas are 10-15 degrees. Forecast highs across the CWA are in the lower-60s to mid-70s Monday afternoon, with portions of Northeast Colorado, Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas looking to experience the coolest temperatures in this range. However, a slower front progression could allow these zones to reach the middle to upper range of the current temperature forecast. Dry conditions are possible ahead of the front, with relative humidities in the upper-teens to lower-20s forecast across East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas. Critical fire weather conditions are not currently a concern across this area, as forecast wind gusts in the 25-30 mph range are not enough to make up for the RH values failing to reach thresholds for the hazard. Still, NBM guidance suggests around a one-in-three to one-in-four chance for wind gusts to exceed 30 mph in this area, which could introduce locally brief critical fire weather conditions. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed at this time is around 5%.

As the northwesterly upper-level flow begins to break down and move eastward Monday evening, it will be replaced by a split flow. Precipitation is possible overnight Monday through Tuesday evening, with portions of Northeastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska seeing the strongest chances (30-40%). This zone may also experience wintry precipitation overnight Monday and into the morning hours Tuesday, with NBM guidance suggesting around a 5-10% chance of measurable (>0.1 in.) snowfall. Warmer conditions are favored Tuesday afternoon as a southerly return flow develops at the surface, with forecast highs in the upper-60s to lower-70s. While confidence in this range for max temperatures is increasing, there is still a modest amount of uncertainty, with NBM 75th-25th percentile max temperature differences in the 5-10 degree range across much of the forecast area. This could be due to ongoing precipitation, or uncertainty regarding when the return flow will set up.

Going into Tuesday evening, a 500-mb shortwave trough looks to dig across the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada. There is a significant amount of uncertainty as to how model guidance handles this feature, as it may partially merge with another shortwave trough off the United States West Coast (scenario 1), or continue eastward as its own independent system (scenario 2). LREF guidance would suggest about a 70% chance in scenario 1 to occur, and a 30% chance for scenario 2. Regardless of which scenario takes place, warm conditions are favored Wednesday afternoon in the upper-70s to lower-80s. Additionally, broad troughing appears favored to set up across the Western United States sometime between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, and looks to last through the end of the period. As such, there is potential for a wet period beginning Wednesday and into the weekend. Even so, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the forecast after Wednesday afternoon depending on which scenario occurs. Scenario 1 favors a stronger, faster cold front that comes through sometime Wednesday, whereas scenario 2 favors a weak, slower-moving front. NBM 75th-25th percentile differences in max temperature are large through the end of the forecast period, from 20-30 degrees Thursday and Friday, to 10-20 degrees Saturday. Further, exact locations and types of precipitation to be experienced through the end of the forecast is entirely uncertain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. 10-15 knot NW winds will increase to 20-30 knots a few hours after sunrise (~14-16Z) and remain breezy through the majority of the day, decreasing to 15-25 knots an hour or two prior to sunset (~23Z). Winds will rapidly weaken and become easterly or variable after sunset (~01Z Sun). Winds will remain light and variable overnight.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. NW winds at 10-15 knots will increase to 20-30 knots w/gusts to ~35 knots a few hours after sunrise (~14-16Z) and remain breezy through the majority of the day, decreasing to 15-25 knots an hour or two prior to sunset (~23Z). Winds will rapidly weaken and become light/variable after sunset (~01Z Sun). Winds will remain light and variable overnight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.