textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy this afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph in northeast Colorado and 30-50 mph elsewhere. Some patchy blowing dust possible in Colorado.

- Frost and light freeze possible tonight, then a light freeze likely Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 118 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Current mid-level water vapor imagery and analysis show a deep, positively tilted trough accompanied by a strong jet streak over the Tri-State area. Clouds have been slow to clear this morning, but have started to clear in areas in the early afternoon. Chances for light showers throughout the area continue until around sunset.

If and when the clouds clear for the area will determine the severity of the wind threat for today. If clouds clear sooner, the risk for strong winds will increase as stronger winds will be able to mix down to the surface. If cloud cover remains thick or fails to clear, the overall wind threat could diminish.

Mostly northwesterly winds with gusts around 30 mph are expected throughout the area. Counties along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border could see gusts around 45 mph. As of 12pm MDT, portions of eastern Colorado have reported wind gusts around 40 mph. Winds will start to calm down around midnight, but breezy conditions with gusts around 30 mph are possible through Friday morning. Areas that receive little to no precipitation could see localized blowing dust accompanying the stronger winds.

For tonight, a Freeze Warning has been issued for our Colorado counties. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for Cheyenne, Sherman, Wallace, and Greeley counties in Kansas and Dundy county in Nebraska. Current NBM probabilities have our Colorado counties around a 80% chance of temperatures below 32 F. The line of counties east of the Colorado/Kansas and Colorado/Nebraska border have a 20- 40% chance of temperatures below 32 F, with chances increasing east to west.

Breezy conditions and cool temperatures continue Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 50s. Gusts around 35 mph are possible as the jet streak over our area from Thursday continues to traverse east. Clear skies are expected to persist throughout the day, so we have another chance of temperatures below freezing overnight into Saturday. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire Tri-State area Friday night through Saturday morning.

A warming trend begins Saturday as we transition toward an upper- level ridge pattern with south-southwest surface winds. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s for the region. Afternoon wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible, with the highest gusts expected for our Colorado counties. Afternoon relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low teens for the western county warning area (CWA). Strong winds coincide with the lowest RH values of the day, so a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon. RH values have the potential to further drop due to south-southwest winds continuing to dry out conditions. Grassland Fire Danger (GFDI) values are forecast in the 30s to 40s for our Colorado counties, so fires that start are likely to spread rapidly and show erratic behavior. Fire weather concerns diminish after sundown. Clear skies are expected overnight into Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast in the upper 30s to low 40s for the area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Southwest flow aloft via longwave ridge is anticipated on Sunday to kick off this forecast period. Said ridge, centered over the western Great Lakes region, should propagate fairly quickly to the east over the course of the day Monday. Upper-level winds become zonal through Monday. Guidance currently projects a second ridge to develop on Tuesday across the the Plains region, settling the flow pattern back to southwesterly through the middle of next week. This, all ahead of an upper-level low that is expected to move across the SW CONUS through Wednesday. Guidance does outline a brief shortwave early Monday which should move out of the County Warning Area (CWA) by the time the evening comes around. Not much is expected to come from this trough passage other that a wind shift. A weak surface low is likely to form over eastern Colorado Sunday, moving into western Kansas Monday. This feature also should not do much other than pressure changes and wind shifts. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick up a stronger surface low that may set up near the Tri-State area late Wednesday.

Forecast guidance anticipates conditions to be quite dry across the CWA through early Wednesday. 5% or less PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) are favored throughout the region. This may not last though as an upper-level low, mentioned in the above section, paired with low-pressure at the surface could bring the next decent rainfall chances to our region late Wednesday. Guidance is currently not very confident on widespread precipitation, but a general 15-25% PoPs is forecasted at this point in time. Surface analysis/QPF doesn't show much accumulation for our area right now; nonetheless, still worth monitoring as this event draws closer.

Moving on to high/low temperatures for the coverage area, a slight warmup is expected across the board as we rebound from well-below average highs. Temps in the low/mid 70s are likely Sunday and Monday, with a slight uptick to mid/upper 70s Tuesday then upper 70s/low 80s possible next Wednesday. With respect to overnight lows, Sunday morning is likely to be the coldest, with temps expected to approach the mid 30s. Lows will then gradually warm up above the mid 30s, with upper 30s/low 40s expected Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue this warming trend with low/mid 40s and then upper 40s/low 50s expected, respectively.

As for fire weather concerns, the potential for critical fire conditions will be low, but not zero. Relative humidity (RH) values are likely to reach the mid-teens (14-15%) in our eastern Colorado counties on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface winds over these areas should sit around 15-20 mph from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Going forward, RH values are anticipated as low as the upper teens west of US-385 Monday and Tuesday, but winds should be light and variable; thus, the fire weather outlook likely will be milder post-Sunday. For the rest of the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is to be expected with generally 5-15 mph winds. Winds will initially be from the south Monday, shifting to the north and east with the shortwave, then settling back to more of a southerly direction. Gusts are not likely to exceed 25 mph during this forecast period everywhere east of the Colorado/Kansas state line.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

For both terminals, low ceilings are expected to lift throughout the early afternoon and skies should be mostly clear by 00Z. Conditions will be windy today with winds mostly out of the northwest with gusts around 35 knots. Winds will start to diminish Friday late morning. Patchy low-level wind shear is possible overnight for both terminals.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Freeze Watch from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight through Friday morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ090>092. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081. Freeze Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Friday morning for NEZ079.