textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Extensive fog this morning, dense at times.

- Slightly below normal temperatures expected this weekend.

- Windy on Saturday with light rain showers by the afternoon and continuing through Saturday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 626 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Added Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado to the ongoing Dense Fog Advisory as additional reports of quarter mile visibility have been received or observed.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Low clouds and fog continue to expand across the area as of 07z, with ideal radiational cooling conditions due to clear skies, light winds and low dew point depressions. Some patchy freezing fog will also be possible with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. The fog and low clouds will dissipate by 18z. The rest of the afternoon will see considerable high clouds which will keep temperatures mainly in the 50s. Southeast winds will gust 20-30 mph. Cloudy skies and breezy southeast winds tonight should prevent fog from forming in most areas, though models do show some patchy fog in western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado by the morning.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy and windy. NBM 50th percentiles show southeast winds gusting 30 to 50 mph, highest in Colorado, with 55 mph probably the upper limit in Colorado. Models have sped up the arrival of the light rain showers to Saturday afternoon, as a shortwave trough ejects northward ahead of the approaching upper low. Best precipitation chances in the afternoon, albeit light and only amounting to a few hundredths, will be in the Kansas/Colorado border area. Light precipitation chances then spread eastward Saturday night, mainly south of Interstate 70, as the upper low moves through southern Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle region. Precipitation will end by Sunday morning. 50th percentile total precipitation amounts for the event are up to 0.25" south of Interstate 70, rapidly falling off to the north, while 10th percentile amounts are only a few hundredths. Confidence leans toward the lower end amounts.

Clouds will be slow to clear on Sunday with the upper low slowly moving out. Winds will be lighter with southeast winds gusting 20 to 30 mph generally north of Interstate 70, lighter south.

Temperatures will be near normal today with highs ranging from near 50 in the east to near 60 in Colorado. Temperatures over the weekend will be below normal with the clouds and light precipitation, with highs in the upper 40s and lows mainly in the 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 256 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Guidance continues to support a fairly strong ridge developing Monday over the Rockies as an upper-level low exits to the southeast. Concurrently, an embedded shortwave should be departing our area to the east. Northwest flow aloft is anticipated as this ridge builds to the north of the County Warning Area (CWA). On Tuesday, NBM output is in general agreement with the global ensembles that the ridge becomes positively tilted, shifting upper- level winds to be from the southwest as this system propagates to the east. Furthermore, a longwave trough draped across the Pacific Coast lurks nearby. This next system is likely to weaken a bit Wednesday, ejecting quite a strong jet through the Central Plains in the process. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain heading into Thursday but the majority of models suggest a weak mini- ridge to set up briefly over the CWA then push eastward. Finally, ensembles are beginning to detect another strong cutoff low that moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest late Thursday. This new feature will need to be monitored through the weekend as well.

Surface analysis projects high pressure to form with the ridging system and last through early Wednesday. A weak surface low could influence the Tri-State area later on Wednesday via troughing aloft. Said low should track to the northeast, keeping potential impacts minimal. There is a cold front expected from this system though, which slightly boosts rainfall chances heading into Thursday. Furthermore, due to the positioning of the system off to the northwest, most of any precipitation that falls would be in the northern parts of our CWA and into southwest Nebraska. WPC currently has QPF forecasted in the 0.01 to 0.05 range so any rain would be minimal with light accumulation expected. Pre-frontal dewpoints in the low/mid 40s with relative humidities (RHs) in the 50-70% range do support precip. However, current Probability of Precipitation (PoP) guidance has us around 15-25% so confidence is low on accumulations for the time being.

Temperatures during this long-term forecast period are likely to follow a warming trend early to mid-week with high-pressure aloft and subsidence throughout the region. Highs in the low to mid 50s Monday increase to mid/upper 50s Tuesday then upper 50s/low 60s Wednesday. A weak cold front is forecasted to drop high temps slightly for Thursday but some locations in the eastern part of the CWA may still reach the 60s. Overnight low temperatures should drop to around freezing Monday and Tuesday mornings (low/mid 30s) then rise into the 35-42 degree range Wednesday morning. Lows on Thursday may be variable with low 30s possible for western areas of the CWA and low 40s for eastern locations.

Surface winds should be breezy during this period, especially when that jet streak moves overhead on Wednesday. 15-25 mph sustained southerly winds Monday, strengthening to 20-30 mph Tuesday is likely. Winds shift to to southwest Wednesday but remain strong at 20-30 mph. At last, winds die down quite a bit to 5-15 mph. Gusting up to 40 mph is likely across the Tri-State area through Wednesday, especially in some locations of our eastern Colorado counties. 45-50 mph gusts will be possible on Wednesday across those more wind prone areas. Despite the gusty winds, fire weather concerns remain minimal as relative humidities are actually forecasted to be much higher than even elevated conditions would support. RHs consistently above 40% are likely through midweek. Thursday should be the driest day across our coverage area, but again with RHs above even elevated fire weather criteria. Values as low as 35% west of US-385 are possible. Widespread overnight RHs may increase to 100% Monday and Tuesday mornings with radiational cooling; thus, fog will be possible next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 408 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Low ceilings and areas of fog, possibly dense, will impact both KGLD and KMCK through mid to late morning. IFR and occasional VLIFR flight categories are likely for a few hours. Gradual improvement to VFR will occur from late morning to early afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ this morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for COZ091-092. NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ this morning for NEZ079>081.