textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected for the area this afternoon.

- A cold front moves in this evening, bringing some gusty winds and a chance for some localized blowing dust.

- Critical fire weather conditions, high winds, and the potential for dust plumes developing are expected Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 236 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

A broad upper trough currently extends from the Dakotas to New England and southward to the Gulf. There is an area of low pressure over Manitoba that is expected to dive southward into the Great Lakes region tomorrow.

Warm and dry conditions continue this afternoon across the region. Temperatures early this afternoon are already well into the mid-60s across portions of northwest Kansas. Expect highs to reach the mid to upper 60s for most areas through the afternoon. Northwest winds will remain breezy, up to around 25-30mph for northeastern Colorado, and 15-25mph for Kansas/Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon for northeastern Colorado, in addition to Sherman and Wallace counties.

This evening, the low pressure area will push south over Iowa and Minnesota, with an attendant cold front sliding south across Nebraska. The front should arrive after sunset, increasing winds from the northwest. While not the main period of strong winds expected over the next 24-36 hours, there could be a few stronger wind gusts as the front comes through. A High Wind Warning will go into effect later this evening, continuing through Friday afternoon. Within the broad trough, a shortwave trough is expected to dive southeast from the Black Hills this evening into central and eastern Nebraska by tomorrow morning. There is a very small (10%) chance of a few isolated sprinkles or light showers that may clip a portion of the region. The chances of this occurring are low and with the dry air over the region, if anything develops, it may be more of a virga situation. However, if this does occur, we could get some localized stronger winds around the shower area. As the front comes through, there is a possibility of it kicking up some dust off of the burn scar in Yuma County, which could cause some visibility reductions tonight.

A fairly tight pressure gradient remains in place for Friday over the Tri-State area. Northwest winds will have the potential of gusting as high as 65mph. A few localized 70mph gusts may be possible. Minimum relative humidity values will fall into the teens to low 20s for most of the area. Conditions are extremely dry, so combined with low RH and strong winds, critical fire weather conditions are likely for Friday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for most of the CWA as a result. For additional information, please refer to the fire weather discussion. A High Wind Warning has also been issued for the entire CWA for Friday.

The other concern for Friday will be the potential for blowing dust. 0-2km lapse rates of 9.0+ C/km and 2.0-2.5km lapse rates of 6C/km or less are expected Friday afternoon across much of the area. SFC winds of 35-45mph are expected with 0.5-1km winds around 40-60mph also expected. We are not expecting this to be a true "wall of dirt" situation as the FROPA will occur this evening/tonight while environmental conditions are not as favorable, and there won't be a mechanism for the dust to collect and get pushed around like a typical wall of dirt. However, there is growing concern for the possibility of several plumes of dust developing through the day, causing issues. Any areas with recent burn scars will be of particular concern for plumes of blowing dust.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 236 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Saturday brings a challenge as a second embedded shortwave drops into the eastern fringes of the Tri-State area around sunrise. Depending on the exact track, this may result in slightly lower winds over the eastern part of the CWA as the pressure gradient may not be quite as strong. This could impact potential fire weather considerations in the afternoon. As the forecast stands right now, sustained northwest winds of 20-35mph are expected with some gusts potentially in the 45-50mph range, particularly for northeastern Colorado. Minimum relative humidity values are forecasted to fall into the low to mid-teens for portions of northeastern Colorado and extending into extreme southwestern Nebraska and counties along the Kansas/Colorado border. For the time being, no headlines will be issued; however, this situation will be something to continue to monitor, especially as we get a better idea of where the shortwave will track. Some blowing dust may be possible as well.

Sunday into the extended forecast: The broad trough will shift to the east with an amplified ridge over the Aleutian Islands. Expect warmer air to move into the region, with highs rebounding back into the 50s on Sunday afternoon. We'll see a short-lived cool down on Monday with temperatures returning to near or slightly below seasonal (mid-30s to low 40s for highs). There is a small chance of a flurry or snow shower on Monday. Heading into mid- week, temperatures will fluxuate between the 40s and 50s for highs and the teens and 20s for lows.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 350 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail this evening at the terminals. A cold front will push into the region after 03Z, resulting in an increase in winds and some LLWS. Gusty winds out of the north- northeast continue overnight, shifting to the northwest around sunrise. There will be potential for localized plumes of blowing dust, but confidence in the development of a plume causing impacts to an individual terminal is low, so the mention was omitted from prevailing conditions. If blowing dust does develop in the vicinity of a terminal, it may cause some visibility reductions to below one mile.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 631 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Thursday: A Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon for northeastern Colorado, in addition to Sherman and Wallace counties. In addition to the breezy conditions, minimum relative humidity values will fall into the mid-teens within the warned counties this afternoon. The combination of dry fuels, gusty winds, and low relative humidity values will result in critical fire weather conditions in these areas. There is less certainty in critical fire weather conditions being met multiple hours the further east you go.

Friday: Northwest winds will have the potential of gusting as high as 65mph. A few localized 70mph gusts may be possible. Minimum relative humidity values will fall into the teens to low 20s for most of the area. GFDI values are also expected to be high across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all but Norton and Graham counties in Kansas. Confidence was not as high in conditions truly reaching critical levels for an extended period of time in these locations. Despite remaining in the watch, at least elevated fire weather conditions are expected. Regardless of location, with the potential for strong winds and dry conditions, any fires that are able to ignite will show rapid growth. Plumes of blowing dust will also be a concern.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for KSZ013-027. Red Flag Warning from 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ to 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ Friday for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042. High Wind Warning from 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Friday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029- 041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for KSZ004-016. CO...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252>254. Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM MST Friday for COZ252>254. High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Friday for COZ090>092. NE...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ to 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ Friday for NEZ079>081. High Wind Warning from 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Friday for NEZ079>081.