textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect Wednesday for most of the Tri- State area. Relative humidity as low as 10% and wind gusts up to 45 mph are forecast to allow for critical fire weather conditions.

- Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening along a dry line located in the Colorado and Kansas border area.

- Critical fire weather conditions may return Thursday for most of the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Forecast remains on track and no consequential changes noted on the 00z model runs. Dry line remains the focus for convective initiation between 19-21z this afternoon, generally in the Colorado and Kansas border area, perhaps a bit west into Colorado. Storms will move northeast with the mean flow through about 00-01z before dissipating. Environment favors high-based storms at around 12kft, with inverted-v soundings and DCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg. Severe wind gusts in excess of 50 kts will be the primary hazard, with blowing dust and localized dust storms also possible in the vicinity of the downdraft. These storms will produce little, if any, precipitation at the ground, with a risk for dry lightning acting as a trigger for wildfires given the persistent dry fuels. Main area to be impacted by these storms will be Colorado and east to about Highway 25, with areas further east less likely to see impacts as the storms weaken later in the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are most likely to occur west of the dry line which will set up in Colorado by late in the morning and perhaps make it as far east as Highway 27 by 21z. East of the dry line fire weather conditions will be more marginal as far as meeting 15% criteria for relative humidity, but wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common, and there is at least some risk for dry lightning as well. So, will not make any changes to the Red Flag Warning.

A cold front will move through Wednesday night and continue east through Thursday. The front will sweep the deep moisture and instability into eastern Kansas. A fairly decent shortwave trough will move out of the central Rockies and across the area Thursday afternoon. Appears there will be another round of high-based showers and isolated thunderstorms with an attendant risk of strong to severe wind gusts, blowing dust and localized dust storms, and dry lightning. There is no surface focusing mechanism on Thursday, so the activity will be more scattered across the entire area, although CAMs do seem to be somewhat favoring areas south of Interstate 70. Showers and storms diminish and weaken by late afternoon and early evening. Despite slightly cooler temperatures in the wake of the cold front (highs in the 70s), afternoon relative humidity will drop to near 10% in the entire area. Wind gusts are strongest in the morning behind the front, then gradually decrease through the day, and by the time of lowest humidity mean gusts are only around 20 mph (outside of any showers and thunderstorms). For this reason decided not to issue a Fire Weather Watch at this time, though there is the dry lightning to consider and that may be a hedge factor in favor of one.

Friday, another trough axis from an upper low that is forecast to rotate around the Northern Rockies is forecast to push through the Plains. This is forecast to develop another low along the Front Range that then will push into the area late in the day. For the daytime hours, this is forecast to keep temperatures roughly the same as Thursday in the 70s with generally clear skies. Winds for most of the area are forecast to be 5-15 mph, but could reach 25 mph gust 35 mph in Eastern Colorado, closer to the forecast low. If the low does track near/through the area late in the day, some storms may develop and try and push east depending on how much dry air is in place.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 204 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The long term period appears fairly consistent. Saturday, our region is forecast in a deep troughing pattern with a strong ridge off the west coast. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast in the 60s to 70s with lows in the 30s to 40s.

Both Saturday and Sunday will bring chances for rain in the afternoon as several embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Sunday will be the best chance for thunderstorms for the entire county warning area (CWA). Convective forcing is marginal for Sunday, but with 500 J/kg of CAPE forecast for the area, there is potential for small hail if any thunderstorms are able to form.

By Monday, a deepening low pressure system off the coast of Baja California begins to move onshore placing our region in a more zonal upper level pattern. This will support continued mild temperatures, with high temperatures forecast in the 60s to 70s for Tuesday. As the low propagates east, several shortwaves will pass through our area bringing afternoon chances for precipitation. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from around 20-40% for the northwest CWA. Currently, convective potential appears low, through confidence decreases towards the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1119 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms will develop after 20z Wednesday afternoon in the Colorado and Kansas border area and move east through about 00z before dissipating. There is a low probability, less than 20%, that either terminal may be briefly impacted by gusty winds with these storms that produce little, if any, rainfall reaching the surface.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday to midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday night for KSZ001>003- 013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday to midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday night for NEZ079>081.