textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in Colorado. Locally strong wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.

- Windy conditions today with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Patchy blowing dust possible, but reductions in visibility are not likely.

- Strong cold front Saturday brings in prolonged precipitation potential through Monday. Low chance of flooding from this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 219 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The next few days will be dominated by a closed low over the Great Basin and Four Corners region gradually crossing over the Rockies. This low will be pushing out a ridge that's currently extending over the Great Plains and Mississippi River Valley. These two features have created a moderately strong pressure gradient in the low levels, leading to breezy conditions. Widespread vorticity is also seen all around the incoming low, which has promoted some showers and isolated storms to form overnight.

Today, south-southwesterly winds will be stout, but nothing crazy for the High Plains. Sustained winds around 20 kts with most gusts in the 30-35 kts range, and a few isolated gusts around 45 kts being possible. Despite the strong winds, fire weather concerns are not high as RH values will remain above 20% for the entire area. However, there is a 50% chance we'll see some hazy skies from blowing dust, which will impact air quality, but there is less than 10% confidence that blowing dust reduces visibility to less than 1 mile. If it were to reduce visibility, it would be near a source region, such as a burn scar or open field. Confidence is this low because scattered to broken cloud cover looks to linger around for a bulk of the day, preventing low level lapse rates climbing over 9 C/km.

Highs today look to largely top out around 80. However, areas near the Tri-State border have a 30% chance of warming into the mid to upper 80s if the clouds break for most of the day. There is also a 5- 10% chance that we see some isolated showers or storms today. Location for these showers is very much unknown and could pop-up anywhere across the CWA. The reason location confidence is so low is because the low-level flow is so fast and the mid/upper level vorticity is so scattered that these little showers of precipitation and virga will be moving very quickly. There is a ~2% chance that a storm could tap into some mild instability and downburst, producing 45-50 kts winds. The precipitation potential increases to around 15% after 0Z, as the low level dew point depression decreases from diurnal cooling, but the severe threat decreases.

Overnight, the winds will weaken slightly after sunset, but southerly winds gusting around 15-25 kts are still expected until after 6Z. After 6Z, winds will weaken for 1-3 hours ahead of the incoming cold front from the aforementioned low crossing the Rockies.

The cold front is forecast to enter northwestern Yuma county first around 11Z and finally be through the CWA around 0Z. With the cold front, expect a sharp change in wind directions to be coming from the north, and gusts to rapidly return to around 25-35 kts. As we get closer to sunset, the pressure gradient weakens some, leading to gradually weakening winds in the late afternoon and evening hours.

With the cold front, we expect to see additional precipitation fire off. This precipitation looks to persist through the remainder of the short-term period as the front stalls out over the CWA. Severe weather is not expected from these storms, but we could see some isolated embedded storms within the widespread rain. The primary hazard from this system will be the amount of rain we receive. More information about the precipitation can be found in the Hydrology section below.

Saturday will have a major contrast for high temperatures, thanks to the cold front. The northwestern CWA will likely remain in the 50s while areas in and around Graham county will warm into the low 70s. Sunday and Monday, highs look to be in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Low temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings look to be in the upper 30s to near 50, with the cooler temperatures in the northwestern CWA. Tuesday morning, as we're expecting the precipitation to be tapering off, temperatures near the Tri-State border look to be cooling to around freezing. If there is any lingering precipitation Tuesday morning, some snow could mix in, although no accumulations are expected. It's worth noting that we have passed the end of the growing season, so we will not be issuing any Frost or Freeze products for the rest of the year.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 224 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Tuesday, we are forecast to be under a weak ridge with a digging trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant with highs forecast in the 60s for the county warning area (CWA).

Our region is on the back end of a weak jet streak, so we have the potential for breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon for the western CWA. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible, although lingering cloud cover from earlier precipitation could prevent stronger winds from mixing down. If skies completely clear, or clear earlier, we could see stronger winds. Models are a bit conflicted with the wind potential. NBM probabilities have around a 50% chance of wind gusts over 35 mph for our eastern Colorado counties. LREF has probabilities of wind gusts over 30 mph around 10%.

Conditions are forecast to remain pleasant Wednesday with partly cloudy skies and high temperatures forecast in the 60s across the area. As the day progresses, we transition to more of a southwest upper-level flow with a developing trough of the west coast.

Thursday and Friday, the forecast remains consistent with high temperatures forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. Our southwesterly upper-level flow will bring afternoon and overnight chances for rain showers as embedded shortwaves are ejected across the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 30-40% with low QPF amounts.

Looking past Friday, we have the potential to return to more of an active weather pattern depending on the track and evolution of the aforementioned trough off the west coast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 518 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for both KGLD and KMCK through the period. Winds will be the main thing to keep an eye on. During the day, maximum gusts will likely be around 35-40 kts in the afternoon hours. Gusts are expected to persist through the entire period. Additionally, LLWS from the southwest at 40-45 kts around 200-400 feet AGL is possible at KMCK Saturday morning, but is more likely at KGLD. The LLWS will persist until the Saturday morning cold front pushes through.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 219 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

We are expecting a closed low system crossing over the Rockies to provide prolonged forcing to a warm, moist air mass that has been advected in from the Gulf thanks to days of southeasterly flow leading up to the low's approach. WPC has issued Excessive Rainfall Outlooks showing portions of the CWA in a Slight risk. These outlooks aren't unfounded, but confidence for flash flooding, which that outlook focuses on, is less than 15%. Reason being, there does not seem to be a particular time when heavy rain is expected to fall.

Deterministic guidance is suggesting 1-2 inches of rain falling over most of the CWA and a band of up to 3 inches by Tuesday morning. This is likely too high of QPF values, which is supported by ensemble means. Ensemble means suggest most of the CWA will receive 0.5-1.25 inches and a band of up to 2 inches. These values seem more realistic.

This band of higher precipitation amounts will occur where the cold front stalls out Saturday night, creating a stationary boundary as the ridge to the southeast and low to the northwest duke it out. This will be a north-northeast/south-southwest oriented band, with its northern extent likely not crossing I-70. The band may setup anywhere between U.S. 385 and U.S. 83. Wherever the band sets up, there will be a 30% chance of areal and/or river flooding. Low water crossings will likely be the first areas impacted from any flooding that does occur.

It's worth noting, there is a 25% chance that the boundary does not remain very stationary and "bounces" back and forth. If this occurs, a well defined band of higher precipitation would likely not form and the risk of flooding lowers to around 10%.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.