textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-60%) through the start of next week. Best chances will be Saturday night.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Upper ridge has reorganized over the Southern and Central Plains and will be the dominant upper feature. The Central High Plains will be under weak southwest flow on the western side of the ridge axis through the weekend. Upper winds do increase some on Monday as a shortwave trough swings through the Northern Rockies and adjacent plains and the ridge moves into Missouri.

CAMs show isolated to widely scattered convection this afternoon and evening generally along a weak convergent boundary that extends from around Tribune in northwest Kansas to McCook in southwest Nebraska. Relatively best storm coverage will be on the southern end, with more isolated coverage further north. REFS shows instability ranging from 500-1000 j/kg along the Kansas and Colorado border to up to 2500 j/kg from McCook to Norton. Deep layer shear is around 25 kts. While the probability of severe weather will be low, cannot completely rule out a marginally severe wind gust given favorable DCAPE of up to 1500 j/kg. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible given slow storm motions and precipitable water values of 1.00-1.50". Peak coverage will be around 03z, but isolated showers and storms may persist into the overnight.

Setup for Saturday will be similar to today. Another wave in the southwest flow will initiate convection in eastern Colorado in the afternoon which then moves east into the area during the evening hours. REFS shows instability of 1000-1500 j/kg and deep layer shear of 15-20 kts. CAMs suggest much better coverage with the convection on Saturday, with initial discrete cells in Colorado rapidly merging into clusters in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska in the evening. DCAPE continues to be favorable and wind will be the primary severe hazard. Flooding concerns may develop during the evening hours with the weak flow aloft promoting slow storm motions. CAMs show localized 6-hour precipitation amounts in excess of 2" as they move through the area. Storm coverage peaks in the evening then gradually declines through the overnight hours.

Upper ridge axis will be almost directly over the area on Sunday. CAMs show convection developing in southeast Colorado as well as the usual mountain and Front Range convection in the afternoon. Locally, convection will struggle under the ridge and chances will be isolated at best, primarily associated with weakening showers and storms in the evening originating from the Front Range.

Ridge moves east on Monday with increasing southwesterly flow over Colorado. Models show fairly widespread convection developing in the afternoon in eastern Colorado and moving northeast into the area Monday night. With those storm motions best chances will be in the northeast corner in the evening (Tri-border area) then continuing into Nebraska overnight. Instability and shear forecasts remain on the weak side, though deep layer shear does approach 30 kts in northeast Colorado with the increasing flow aloft. However, overall severe threat appears marginal at best with wind the primary hazard. Heavy rain should be less of a threat with the faster storm motions.

Little change in temperature is indicated through the period, with highs mostly in the 90s, a few spots potentially hitting triple digits.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Starting on Tuesday, the upper-level ridge pattern starts to stall southward and becomes elongated over the majority of the northern half of the United States as the low pressure moves eastward over southern Canada. It then reamplifies again over the South-Central Plains on Friday. This will allow a weak to moderate strength cold front to pass through the area Tuesday evening, small chances for showers throughout the rest of the period, and keeping temperatures above average. There is medium to high confidence (55-70%) that this cold front will cause storms to be minimally severe. Storms are expected to be fast- moving towards the east-northeast with upper-level shear values being 40 kts. Instability and moisture seems to be the limiting factor as Mixed-Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) will be around 775 J/kg as well as a large surface dew point depression of 35F degrees could be present and a strong, elevated dry layer above 6 km high. Primary hazards look to be moderate-to-strong winds and a slight chance for hail under an inch.

Throughout the remainder of the week, confidence for afternoon-to-evening showers starts to progressively decrease to 10% as diurnal and weak embedded shortwave troughs will be the main driving forces for showers. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) has 15% or less for showers over the majority of the forecast area.

Even with the chances for storms and showers, temperatures will remain above average, but will decrease over time. There is medium confidence (50%) that temperatures Tuesday will be in the upper 90s due to the cold front moving through. The NBM 75th to 25th percentile range spans 8 F degrees and at the time of the that could drop temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Wednesday, temperatures will be in the mid 90s whereas Thursday and Friday will likely drop into the low 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 424 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight have a low probability, around 20%, of impacting either location with brief gusty winds as well as reductions in visibility and ceilings in rain.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.