textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather concerns today across the area followed by locally critical concerns across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) Tuesday.

- Warm up Tuesday with near record to record highs Wednesday.

- Fire Weather Watch issued for Wednesday for Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties. - Cold front Thursday with the potential for strong winds, fire weather and a low chance of blowing dust.

- Low potential for active weather early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 119 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Breezy to gusty southerly winds are forecast to continue through the rest of the day as a tight surface pressure gradient is in place with a surface high to the east and a developing low to the west. Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast to continue through the afternoon hours as humidity is forecast to be in the upper teens to low 20s across the majority of the forecast area. Breezy winds are then forecast to continue through the evening as well as a slow moving surface trough moves into western portions of the forecast area. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph are forecast to remain in place through the evening before waning as the trough axis situates itself across the area. Cloud cover is forecast to remain thick as well as 700-500mb moisture remains in place. A combination of this and the winds has led me to increase overnight low temperatures a few degrees.

Warmer temperatures are forecast to return Tuesday with highs in the 70s to low 80s; warmest across eastern Colorado. Humidity is forecast to be lower Tuesday but overall the wind field is forecast to remain light. The exception may be across Yuma and perhaps spreading into Dundy and Cheyenne (KS). Guidance has been indicating a bit stronger 850mb and 700mb jet in place than what has been seen with the 15Z RAP showing a 15-20 knot 850mb jet and 700mb jet around 25 knots. If this were to pan out then at least locally critical fire weather conditions could be in place across these counties. Am opting to hold off on any fire weather products for Tuesday at this time to ensure that this signal does hold. Elsewhere winds are forecast to be lighter around 10 mph as a wind shift from the southwest to the northwest occurs during the afternoon.

Wednesday, another large 588dam high pressure system is forecast to develop across the southwestern CONUS. This will lead to another period of very warm and near record to record high temperatures for the area with highs in the 90s forecast.. This pattern is very reminiscent of what occurred this past Saturday but not quite as dry and not quite as hot. Current humidity values are currently forecast in the low teens at this time. Wind as well currently appears to be similar to what occurred on Saturday as well with lighter sustained winds around 10-15 mph and sporadic gusts of 25-35 mph. Opted to issue a Fire Weather Watch for Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties due to relatively better agreement on where the 700mb jet will set up at which would help fuel the stronger wind gusts. There is some variability on the orientation of the 700mb jet which is the reasoning for leaving Yuma county and other counties out at this time. The nudge to issue despite the marginal again winds is that the Nebraska counties is where drought is relatively the worst according to the latest drought monitor. As the evening goes on we actually get some moisture advection from the south which should bring an end to the fire weather conditions for the day so have the watch ending at 03Z.

Thursday, guidance continues to indicate a cold front and associated wind shift moving through the area. GEFS Mean Spread favors a bit more closely to the CMWF-AI on the timing of the frontal passage around 15Z or so. The deterministic 12Z GFS and ECMWF is actually even a bit slower than that with an 18Z FROPA. The timing of the front will be highly dependent on the entire forecast for Thursday from the temperatures to the wind. The current forecast is tailored to a middle ground for high temperatures with highs in the 70s to low 80s. If the front is slower than widespread highs in the 80s to 90 would occur, if its slower then highs in the 60s to 70s would occur. A slower front would also favor a perhaps more impactful fire weather day with critical conditions occurring out ahead of a sudden wind shift along with increasing the potential for blowing dust as well. The variable playing against significant blowing dust potential is the overall wind field on deterministic guidance isn't overly strong with 850mb winds around 25-30 knots. With how dry the area is and the conditions leading up to the day even with the lesser winds currently dust would still be a concern especially with the wind shift.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 144 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

There may be a band of frontogenesis moving over the northern half of the forecast area behind the cold front. If this happens there may be a low chance for precipitation to occur during the night. Confidence for this happening is 20% at best. Behind the cold front will be a long wave trough over the Northern half of the CONUS with the upper level ridge over the Southern Plains. By Saturday the axis of the long wave trough is over the Ohio River Valley with a ridge building over the Rockies. This will allow warmer temperatures to move into the forecast area behind the departing trough. Sunday and Monday the ridge moves onto the Plains, continuing the warm air advection. As previously mentioned, if the long wave trough moves east faster, this will allow temperatures to warm faster than what is currently forecast. Based on probabilities for highs on Sunday to reach or exceed 80F, the current forecast looks on track.

Monday a dry line is forecast to setup over the western part of KS. Along and to the east of it a low level jet should form. There may be a small scale upper level short wave trough moving over the forecast area Monday afternoon. If this happens severe thunderstorms may form along and east of the dry line. The main question is will an upper level short wave trough move through the forecast area during the afternoon or not, with a secondary question of where will the dry line be as the short wave trough moves through. Quite a bit can change in the setup in the coming days, but it is a potential setup to be aware of. Confidence is 20% that the current weather pattern for Monday shown by the models will be what happens.

Relative humidity values fall to around 15% for the weekend. Saturday the winds will be the breeziest, with gusts of 30-40 MPH. Will continue to watch these days to see if a fire weather hazard will need to be issued.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1051 AM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Persistent cloud cover is forecast to persist through the day but remaining VFR. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to continue through the afternoon; albeit losing some magnitude. GLD will be windier than MCK by 15 to even 20 knots at times. Breezy winds are forecast to continue through the evening as especially for GLD whereas MCK will see low level wind shear instead. Winds are then forecast to decease for Tuesday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 415 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record high temperatures (for the date) are possible on Wednesday March 25.

================================================== Record Highs for Wed March 25 Current Forecast ================================================== Burlington.........83 in 1998 91 Goodland...........85 in 1907 92 Hill City..........88 in 1956 93 McCook.............88 in 1910 92

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NEZ079>081.