textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather pattern Thursday through Saturday with high chances for precipitation (rain and snow) and below normal temperatures.

- Very low chance (~10%) for 2-3 inches of snow around the Tri- State border area tomorrow afternoon.

- About a 35-40% chance blowing snow will impact travel Saturday morning.

- Dry, warming trend expected to start Sunday and last into at least the middle of the next workweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Current observations show an upper trough center roughly over Southern Nevada with a shortwave trough moving northeast through the Plains. At the surface, the low pressure system that moved through the area yesterday is moving through Iowa to the northeast with the pressure gradient weakening as it move further away. For the remainder of today, winds should slowly lower from southwest to northeast with gusts decreasing from 35-40 mph down to around 20 mph later in the afternoon. Temperatures are still expected to warm into the 50s and low 60s with mostly sunny skies until later in the afternoon. 700-500mb moisture is then forecast to move through the area and increase cloud cover and maybe allow for a few sprinkles or very light showers.

Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 20s and 30s as cloud cover clears and winds become mostly calm in the weaker pressure gradient. Temperatures may be higher than forecast if the southerly low level flow kicks in a bit faster and brings in higher dewpoints. Lows would then likely be in the 30s.

Tomorrow begins another round of active weather as another shortwave moves through the larger trough and brings a low pressure system through the area from the south later in the day. This is forecast to bring plenty of lift and moisture into the area as the day goes on. Skies are forecast to be mostly cloudy to cloudy which will help keep temperatures in the 30s and 40s along with precipitation that falls. Rain is forecast to begin developing during the morning hours, but be more widespread by the afternoon hour as the northern part of the surface low nears the area. Liquid amounts remain forecast around 0.10 to 0.50 inches for the entire day.

There are two low chance hazards to keep an eye out for. The first is the possibility for snow. If temperatures do manage to cool into the twenties tonight (mainly around Eastern Colorado) and the low moves in quickly enough during the morning, temperatures may not be able to warm much above freezing with dewpoints also in the upper twenties. This could allow for a rate driven change into snow. Though it would likely be a wet snow, the forecast liquid amounts could allow for as much as 3 inches during the day for locales around the Tri-State border. Similar to recent events, the snow would likely melt quickly and have difficulty sticking to roadways. The other potential hazard favors locales along and south of I-70. Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hour, especially if the low moves close enough that there could be some dry air that gives breaks in the clouds and allows daytime heating to add some instability. With the effective and low level shear forecast to be around 40 and 20 kts respectively, there is the possibility for a stronger storm or two to develop that could produce some small hail. The actual hazard is that the low ceilings and potential low level shear could actually allow for a quick tornado, especially if a low level convergence zone can develop and form a boundary in the warmer sector. Overall, the chances are fairly low for hazardous weather, but it will be worth watching to see how this low advances. Snow greater than 2" has a 10% chance, tornado chance is around 1-2%.

Tomorrow night, the low is forecast to become a bit more elongated and weaker which should lower the forcing available for precipitation. Still, chances for rain and snow will continue through the night, but likely with less accumulation. Temperatures are forecast to generally be in the 30s and 40s with the moist air keeping dewpoints higher and the cloud cover inhibiting radiational cooling.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The long term remains forecast to be active with chances for rain and snow to start the weekend, followed by drier and warming conditions at the end of the weekend and going into next week.

Guidance remains in pretty good agreement that the upper pattern will start with the large trough/cut-off low near Four Corners region while a trough in the main flow to the north swings through the Northern Plains. For Friday, this is going to help keep the area along the pressure gradient with a smaller surface low center moving either through Southern Kansas or Oklahoma. The closer the low is to the area, the better the chance for continued precipitation, though either solution would give the area some precipitation. There is only about a 10 to 20% chance that the area doesn't see precipitation during the day. In spite of the cloud cover and colder air mass trying to push in from the north, temperatures should start above freezing with dewpoints forecast to be in the mid 30s to the 40s. This will keep precipitation as rain to start the day while the low moves near the area. Temperatures should stay in the 40s unless the cloud cover breaks in which case highs could reach the low 50s.

Late in the day Friday and into Saturday, the pressure gradient will likely increase as the colder air mass continues to try and move into the area with the main trough swinging through the Plains. This should increase winds from out of the north and allow for speeds around 15-25 mph and gusts around 25-40 mph. This could pose a problem if the smaller low doesn't move away quick enough and the area is still having decent precipitation. As the colder air mass moves in, temperatures should drop below freezing and allow for any precipitation to transition to snow. As currently forecast, the snow would be light and intermittent which would pose more nuisance problems. If the precipitation remained fairly steady or heavy, then there could be concerns for very low visibility and whiteouts with blowing snow. Current chance remains around 35-40% as the ensemble spreads are favoring a faster easterly track which would lower the intensity of precipitation for the area. Still, would have to be cautious as the trough over the Four Corners will also begin to move east and could bring some more lift to the area. The current track now favors most of it staying south which would give us light intermittent precipitation Saturday. Highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the 40s.

Sunday and Monday are forecast to see the area transitions to northwest flow aloft as a ridge pushes in to the Western United States and then the Plains. This will likely allow the area to warm and see dry conditions. Highs would likely warm back into the 60s with lows generally in the 20s and 30s depending on how dry it got at the surface. Tuesday may also see dry and warm conditions, but long range guidance is hinting at the possibility of another trough moving through and bringing a system to the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1025 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Little change since the last TAF issuance. Continue to believe the IFR ceilings will be tied to the precipitation moving up from the south. Lowest conditions will begin during the afternoon, lasting into Thursday night.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.