textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered storm chances through mid week. A few severe storms will be possible in the afternoon and early evening with large hail and damaging winds.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures today and tomorrow, then near to slightly below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A broad upper ridge stretching from the Four Corners to Texas will move little today and tomorrow. It will consolidate over the Four Corners Wednesday and Thursday and begin to amplify. The central plains will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a zonal flow tending to become more northwesterly as the ridge amplifies later in the period. Embedded disturbances will result in at least some chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Additional storms may move off the higher terrain to the west.

For today, latest CAMs are not showing much convection in the area. An isolated storm or two may develop along the lee trough in northeast Colorado this afternoon, but fade by sunset. Most of the activity will be well to the north in Nebraska and the Dakotas tonight.

On Tuesday, a weak surface trough or front will move through in the morning with winds shifting to the north. It will have minimal impacts on temperatures, but may be the focus for isolated convection in southern parts of the area in the afternoon where it will stall out. The environment will be moderately unstable with 2000-2500 j/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. While overall forcing is rather weak and coverage on the low side, any thunderstorm that develops in this environment will have the potential of producing large hail and damaging winds. Appears to be somewhat better chances tomorrow night for scattered storms moving across the area out of Colorado. There is some weak isentropic lift/low level warm air advection after 06z which may keep the storms going through the overnight. CAMs have varying solutions on how strong the storms will be, with a fairly weak low level jet at less than 20 kts but lingering MUCAPE of around 1500 j/kg. While an isolated marginally severe storm cannot be completely ruled out tomorrow night, the overall severe threat appears to be low.

As noted above, Wednesday and Thursday will be more of a northwest flow regime, with a weak to moderately unstable environment each afternoon along with around 40 kts of deep layer shear. Forcing somewhat nebulous once again, but in addition to any embedded wave in the northwest flow, appears to be a surface boundary in the area on Wednesday which could be a focus for initiation. CAMs show an isolated storm or two after about 22z which may pose a large hail and damaging wind threat given the environmental parameters. Additional storms may move in from Colorado Wednesday evening, mainly south of Interstate 70. On Thursday, CAMs suggesting storms may be more isolated with the strengthening ridge. Mean storm motions also become more northerly which may take Front Range convection more southward rather then eastward across the plains. Environmental parameters remain favorable for severe storms should they develop, but confidence is low at this time.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today and Tuesday, followed by a slight cool down on Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s, before returning to near normal on Thursday with highs around 90.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Northwesterly flow is favored overhead at 500-mb Wednesday morning according to GEFS and EC ensembles. A shortwave trough embedded in the northwesterly flow is forecast to move through the area throughout the day. GEFS and EC members are in support of a surface low at the leading edge of this shortwave already past the forecast area by morning, which would favor a northerly component to the surface winds. High temperatures are favored to be cooler than Tuesday, in the low to mid 80s. In addition, thunderstorms are possible Wednesday ahead of a secondary cold front. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows the best chances for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across Eastern Colorado and Southwestern Nebraska, with some areas at a 50-60% chance. These thunderstorms would be supported by a modest 40-50 kt jet streak at 500-mb, particularly across northern portions of the forecast area. LREF guidance is in support of this solution, showing a two in three chance that sfc-500mb wind shear will exceed 30 kts for areas along and north of I-70, and as high as an 80-90% chance across Northeast Colorado and Southwest Nebraska. As such, severe thunderstorms, particularly across this zone where wind shear would be highest, are possible. The favored mode for these storms are currently clusters and/or line segments, as supported by vertical wind shear parallel to the incoming cold front alongside recent RRFS data showing a cluster and/or line segment coming through the area during the evening/overnight hours. The primary hazard with these storms would be strong winds, with a secondary hazard of large hail. Confidence in severe weather occurring is highest north of I-70, around 10%.

Northwesterly flow is forecast to persist into Thursday, as ridging continues to build off to the west. While surface winds may still be out of the northeast during the day, they are forecast to mainly stay below 20 mph. This would allow sufficient warming to take place Thursday afternoon as long as clouds clear out. Otherwise, temperatures would be able to remain cooler Thursday. Forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s, though could reach into the 90s if sufficient heating can take place. Showers may develop during the evening hours, though NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests less than a 20% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across nearly the entire forecast area. LREF guidance continues to show a two in three chance that vertical wind shear will be above 30 kts along and north of I-70 Thursday, which may allow some storms to become severe. However, given the anticipated low coverage of storms Thursday, confidence in severe weather occurring is 5% or less.

The remainder of the forecast period looks to be dominated by warmer temperatures as ridging from the west moves in overhead. Highs Friday through Sunday are forecast in the 90s. Conditions are also forecast to be drier, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance continues to show a 20% chance or less for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across the forecast area. Additionally, relative humidities (RH) may drop a little bit with the increase in temperatures, but are not forecast to drop below 20%. We may see RH values drop further into the teens if southwesterly surface flow can develop across the area. This would be possible given the persisting northwesterly upper- level flow to the north and east of the forecast region, which would allow surface lows to track across this area. Even so, fire weather conditions are not expected, as wind gusts are forecast to remain below 25 mph all three days. However, if RH values can drop into the teens and a few thundershowers could develop, there would be a risk for dry lightning to start fires.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1104 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.