textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Early fog this morning should give way to clearer skies and near average temperatures in the 80s. A few showers/storms are possible during the afternoon and evening.

- The unsettled pattern looks to continue over the next week, leading to another couple of low-end chances at showers and storms along with near average temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 322 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

During the early morning hours, Clear skies were present west of Highway 83 while locales to the east were under fog, including some dense patches. Recent observations show some drier air is slowly mixing in with weak westerly/northwesterly winds, which should continue to erode the fog slowly through the remainder of the early morning hours. Once the sun is up and starts warming temperatures, any lingering fog should dissipate fairly quickly. The question is how long the lower level moisture will linger and keep clouds over the area. As long as the clouds don't linger past the morning hours, temperatures should warm to around 80 underneath sunny skies. For any location that sees clouds linger, there is a chance that temperatures stay in the 60s and 70. With the upper pattern forecast to keep northwest flow over the area as the ridge slowly amplifies and the surface pressure field forecast to become broader, winds should remain a bit on the lighter side from the north around 5 to 15 mph.

Late this afternoon and evening, there is a small chance for storms generally east of Highway 25 as long as the drier air does not completely remove the moisture from the area. Weak shortwaves in the northwest flow would allow a few showers and storms to develop as long as moisture lingers. Any storm that develops would likely be sub-severe with low instability (mid-level lapse rates below 7.5 C/km and CAPE around 500-1500 J/kg), low effective/sfc-6km shear below 30 kts, and DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. If the environment ends up being a bit more supportive, a single marginally severe storm with hail round an inch and wind gusts to 65 mph could be possible. Any chances should end later in the evening, closer to midnight barring any strong outflow from nearby storms that push through the area. Tonight, lows should generally be in the 50s, with some 60's for eastern portions of the area where cloud cover and some low level moisture may be able to push back in as winds are forecast to shift to out of the east for a short time. If enough moisture moves back in, some fog and dense fog may be possible again for those along and east of Highway 83.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The overall pattern in the long-term is expected to remain fairly consistent. We will have a high pressure system over the Four Corners region with low pressure to the northeast of the Great Plains. This will leave the CWA under northwesterly flow, which generally creates unsettled weather. This will support moderate temperatures, like in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and a few chances at precipitation. The main limiting factors to precipitation over the next week will be mid-level moisture return and instability. We do look to have a few cold fronts moving through the area, which would provide enough lift to start off precipitation, if the other two ingredients are in place.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 511 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Generally clear skies and winds from the north around 10 kts are expected for most of the period. There could be a few gusts around 15-20 kts between 16-00Z. There is also a 5% chance of a shower/storm moving over the terminal between 21-04Z.

For KMCK... Dense fog and low ceilings around or below 500ft are forecast for the first few hours of the TAF period. There is a chance that dry air gets mixed in and conditions improve within the first two hours. Otherwise, ceilings should gradually lift and clear by 18Z, allowing for VFR conditions. There is a 10% chance for showers/storms between about 20-04Z. Otherwise, the fog and low ceilings could return again after 06Z tonight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ003-004- 015-016-029. CO...None. NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ081.