textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Freeze Warning is in effect for the entire Tri-State Area late tonight through sunrise Saturday morning.

- Locally critical fire weather conditions expected across much of the Tri-State Area on Saturday. Occasional NW wind gusts up to 25-35 mph and relative humidity readings around 10-15% may lead to rapid wildfire growth during the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 259 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Today: Shortwave energy rounding the base of a broader upper trough over the central-northern Rockies at 19Z will rapidly lift NE from north-central/northeast CO to the Nebraska Panhandle by sunset this evening. Strong mid-level frontogenesis (refer to SPC mesoanalysis 700 mb fgen, 700-500 mb fgen) accompanying the aforementioned shortwave has forced the development of a narrow, SSW-NNE oriented band of moderate precipitation along/east of the I-76 corridor in Colorado at 1930Z. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR have handled the development, orientation, progression and.. overall evolution.. of this feature quite well. Ongoing radar trends indicate that the aforementioned band of precip will slowly progress eastward into portions of Yuma/Kit Carson counties ~3 pm MDT. Surface wetbulb temperatures in northern Yuma County are currently ~35-36F. Vertical wetbulb profiles via forecast soundings suggest rain as an initial precipitation type followed by a mix with and/or transition to wet snow as ongoing low-level cold advection and evaporative cooling alter thermal profiles. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR indicate that precip will dissipate around 00Z/6 pm MDT as the aforementioned shortwave lifts NE-NNE across the Nebraska Panhandle and mid-level frontogenesis rapidly wanes. With warm ground temperatures and a very short 'window of opportunity' for wet snow before precipitation ends, expect minimal impact(s). For reference, heavy wet snow and breezy (30-40 mph) NNW wind gusts were reported for ~2 hours along the I-76 corridor in CO, where CDOT webcams indicated roads were wet and light snow accum was confined to grassy areas.

Tonight: Guidance indicates that a clearing trend and weakening wind this evening and overnight will allow temps to fall into/through the 20's across the entire area by sunrise (~12Z) Sat. The Freeze Watch previously in effect for KS-NE has since been upgraded to a Freeze Warning. Thus, a Freeze Warning is in effect for the *entire* Tri-State Area tonight / Saturday morning.

Saturday: A broad upper level trough currently over the northern and central Rockies will progress east across the Central/Northern Plains during the day on Sat. With a cooler airmass recently deposited over the region and NW low-level flow, expect slightly below average to near average highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's. Locally critical fire weather conditions are expected over much of the area, north of I-70, in particular, where NW winds may occasionally gust up to 35 mph and RH readings will bottom-out around 10-15% during the afternoon. At present, confidence is low that northwest winds will frequently reach/exceed 25-30 mph and/or that winds of that magnitude would be long enough in duration to warrant a Red Flag Warning. If subsequent model guidance indicates a stronger signal for 25-30+ mph wind gusts and that winds will be more than several hours in duration, a short-fused Red Flag Warning may be warranted.

Saturday night: Sub-freezing temperatures are expected over much of the area early Sunday morning, when guidance suggests lows ranging from the mid-upper 20's (eastern CO) to upper 20's and lower 30's (KS-NE). Frost/Freeze products may be needed for at least portions of the area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 256 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Starting Sunday morning, an upper level ridge looks to be moving through the region and exiting around Wednesday to Thursday. At the 850 mb level there looks to be a high pressure system that is located just to the south over Texas extending north over the region. During this period, Sunday looks to have warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the low 30s to upper 20s. Relative humidity (RH) values look to be in the single digits for majority of the afternoon. Wind Gusts however look to be in the lower teens with Wichita and Greeley counties showing values into the 20-25 mph range. There is also a 30-50% chance of exceeding 25 mph gusts for areas south of I-70. There is some concerns for fire weather especially how low the RH values are but if we were to meet criteria it would mainly be the southern portions of the CWA. Monday looks to be dry with the probability of seeing RH values less than 15% being 50-95% with the higher percentages over eastern Colorado. Wind gusts look to be lower with the probability of exceeding 25 mph only to be in the lower teens and primarily over the southern Kansas portions of the CWA. Moving on to Tuesday the pattern looks similar with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and lows into the 40s. Winds and RH values look to be very similar with RH values in the lower teens. Wind gusts look to be just below fire weather criteria. However one scenario to look at is that the 90th percentile for the NBM is showing gusts reaching fire weather criteria with gust up to 35 mph. Looking at the spread from 90th- 10th shows there being about a 25 mph difference which lowers the confidence in seeing the winds reach fire weather criteria for both days.

Wednesday looks to be our transition day for weather. Guidance is showing that the ridge moves out and a trough moves in which could bring both precipation chances and fire weather concerns. Looking down to the surface there looks to be a dryline that sets up over our CWA. Currently there is some uncertainty on where exactly it will be located as some models show the dry line being over KS Hwy 27 and some show it further eastward over KS Hwy 25. There is a chance to see precipation and fire weather chances on Wednesday. Looking at the dryline there are dew points in the upper 40s and lower 50s this can help storm potential. Now the dry side of the dryline, there is a signal of seeing fire weather. The wind gusts have a range of 20-45 mph. For the majority of the CWA there is a 50- 90% of exceeding 25 mph for the afternoon. The 90th percentile is also showing up to 55 mph. RH values look to remain in the lower teens for the majority afternoon. Guidance is showing there being 50- 90% of seeing values less than 15%. Looking at GFDI values starting at 18z Wednesday values become higher than 50 and they decrease around 1z Thursday. The peak values arrive around 21z Wednesday with values up to 100. These conditions are showing signs of supporting explosive fire growth potential. Depending on how quickly this system moves through Thursday does look to be similar to Wednesday. Scenario one is the system moves through the fire weather conditions could be more of a concern for the majority of the CWA, but not as extreme as Wednesday. Scenario two would be the system lingers and the potential for precipation chances becomes a concern especially if there is severe weather potential. As for the location and timing will need more investigation as we get closer to the event.

Friday shows precipitation chances to return with the PoPs being in the 20-30s mainly north of I-70 and West of KS Hwy 27. For temperatures the highs look to be in the 60s and lows in the 30s- 40s. Winds look to be in the 20-40 mph range. One thing to note this is at the end of the forecast period so a lot can change, but there are precipitation chances on the horizon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Band of light snow is dissipating rapidly as it crosses the KS and CO border, with only a small threat for MVFR cigs before 1Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail for the rest of the period. Winds will diminish over the next few hours before becoming primarily light and westerly after 06z. Northwest winds will pick up once again from the northwest, sustaining around 20kts by the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029- 041-042. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081.