textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible for the rest of the afternoon mainly along and north of Highway 34. Elsewhere Gusts of 40-50 mph are most likely.

- Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving.

- First round of snow is expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Light snowfall is forecast, but impacts to visibility are possible.

- Second round of snow and the cold temperatures are expected to arrive Sunday night into Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1145 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Gusty to strong winds are ongoing in wake of cold front in response to a strong low pressure system across the northern Plains. A few sporadic wind gusts of 55-60 mph has been observed as the system has remained a bit more broad as what was anticipated. Tonight, winds will rapidly decline as the nocturnal inversion sets up remaining around 10-15 mph sustained. A surface high is forecast to move into the area bringing chilly temperatures in the teens as dew points are forecast to fall into the low to mid teens and continued weakening of the winds. I trended temperatures a few degrees lower than the previously forecast but due to winds slowly becoming more westerly which typically promotes temperatures from fully plummeting did not fully drop temperatures down to the current forecasted dew points.

Wednesday, northwest flow is forecast to re-enforece itself across the area. High temperatures for the day are forecast to be in the low 40s to upper 40s with the coolest across the east in response to being in closer proximity to the cold front. Have actually increased temperatures a little bit due to southwesterly winds ongoing for the majority of the day. Have been noticing guidance has been picking up on a weak wave within the flow originating from the Cheyenne Ridge and increasing 850-700mb moisture and omega with the 15Z RAP13 run showing around 6-8 microbars in the 700-600mb level. Have introduced sprinkles into the forecast for northern portions of the area due to dry air remaining near the surface with perhaps some flurries mixing in after sunset as temperatures cool into the low to mid 30s but not anticipating any impacts with this activity.

Thanksgiving Day continues to look tranquil as the northwest flow broadens out a bit through the day with near normal temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s forecast. Cloud cover is forecast to increase as the day goes as moisture advection occurs from the south. Still may need to keep an eye on some fog or stratus development Thursday evening and overnight into Friday morning as surface winds become more south-southeasterly with the moisture advection. But at this time the threat for any hazards is less than 5% chance of occurring.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Starting the extended period Friday and through the weekend as the pattern then does become more active as a cold front remains forecast to move into the area. Not much has changed from the overnight shift's discussion as all of that continues to remain on track. Confidence does continue to increase in snowfall starting Friday night and into Saturday morning as the cold front interacts with the moisture advection from the south along with a developing surface low across southwest Kansas. There does continue to be some concern for a band or bands of snow along the front and any other mesoscale FGEN bands behind the front resulting in some blowing snow potential as the pressure gradient tightens. Current soil temperatures at the Goodland office is in the upper 40s but with some colder nights leading up to this the soil temperature may fall into the upper 30s/low 40s which may lead to some flash freeze potential on roadways or at least on elevated surfaces. Do continue to see the pockets of instability that the previous shift was discussing which does bring about some snow squall potential with this front. Still though even with the ground temperatures more than likely remaining above freezing most of the snowfall should melt on contact severely limiting accumulation potential. Light snowfall potential continues through the remainder of the weekend before coming to an end to start the new work week. With the consistent easterly upslope flow especially on Friday night and Saturday night freezing drizzle and freezing fog is also a possibility as well which may be even more impactful than just a light snow.

As for temperatures, confidence is high in much colder air filtering into the region starting Saturday morning. High temperatures for the weekend are currently forecast to not get much if at all above freezing. I still think that the NBM is to warm on temperatures especially with the consistent CAA, cloud cover and the fact that arctic air masses are so shallow that guidance struggles to pick up on the true cold nature of them. With that being said confidence is around 50-60% that highs Saturday and Sunday will struggle to get out of the 20s. Same thing goes for low temperatures confidence is high that overnight temperatures will fall into the single digits and even in the realm of possibility of some below zero temperatures for the same reasoning as above. For the start of the week, confidence is low in the current temperatures in the forecast. I feel the NBM is loading in to much of the drier solutions and due to the chaotic synoptic pattern I would not be surprised if temperatures are 5-10 degrees cooler.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 947 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Windy conditions are forecast across the area for the remainder of the afternoon. Wind gusts of 45-55 mph are already occurring but there is a window where some gusts of 60-65 mph occur in the MCK terminal or vicinity. Winds are then forecast to gradual declining during the late afternoon before completely waning as the nocturnal inversion sets in. VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period although there is a less than 5% chance of a plume of dust developing and impacting the MCK terminal due to the wind. Mid to upper level clouds are then forecast to develop towards the latter part of this TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.