textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of systems move through the region late this week and may bring precipitation. Moderate confidence on timing, but low confidence on accumulations at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

The upper pattern through the short term period will feature a zonal flow, with subtle ridging on Wednesday, ahead of an upper low off the central coast of California. Breezy to windy conditions will continue overnight, mainly east of Highway 25, with gusts up to 40 mph at times before diminishing early this morning in the wake of an earlier frontal passage. Cool high pressure will then settle into the region today with high temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s and partly cloudy skies. Low tonight will be in the 20s. The surface high moves east on Wednesday setting up a return southerly flow. High temperatures will be in the 50s and lows Wednesday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

Thursday morning, our next system will slowly start impacting us. The parent 500 mb low pressure system will be off the west coast of Baja California with a northeastward extending trough axis. This axis will be what causes any precipitation before Friday midday. GFS, CMC-NH, and ECMWF have all come into a lot more agreement, and show the track of the 500 mb low to be over Oklahoma between Saturday 12Z-Sunday 6Z.

Looking at 850 mb and 290K surfaces, there is very limited moisture before Thursday afternoon. This has pushed PoPs off until 0Z Friday, however not a lot of moisture is expected to move in between 0-12Z Friday. That being said, northeastern Colorado could see some light precipitation early Friday morning. The bulk of the precipitation, if it occurs, will be 18Z Friday through 18Z Saturday.

The 300K surface looks to be the best way to view the various paths this system could take. The GFS has the low over Texas, the south route, which would basically give us no precipitation, save for some sprinkles or flurries Friday morning. The ECMWF takes the low over southern Oklahoma, but thanks to a stronger 500 mb ridge, a weak high will trail the low to the northwest by about 300 miles. This prevents much return flow from pushing north, limiting the QPF we get, but still ensuring we get some light precipitation. The CMC-NH shows the aggressive output. It's similar to the ECMWF, but with no trailing high, allowing the moisture advection to make it up into Nebraska. This could give us the highest amount of precipitation from the deterministic models.

Looking at GEFS members, about half of the members show a QPF that's consistent with the ECMWF solution. The rest of the member are fairly evenly split between little/no QPF or 1+ inch of QPF. This lends confidence to the ECMWF's guidance of QPF, but doesn't answer the question about what the P-type will be. As a side note, there are still hints of some instability Friday, but CAPE would not be available if we don't have any of the moisture advecting into our area.

Less than 1/4 of the GEFS members are suggesting snow will be the dominant P-type. Looking at LREF soundings, the overwhelming majority show dew points above freezing at the surface. This gives pretty high confidence that the bulk of the precipitation will fall as rain, but some snow may mix in the early morning hours. It is worth noting that if the snowy solutions pan out, we could expect 3+ inches of wet, heavy snow. Overnight temperatures each morning are expected to drop to right around freezing. This could lead to some black ice Saturday/Sunday mornings.

Precipitation will be exiting the region Saturday afternoon/evening. Sunday evening looks to be the coolest day in the forecast, likely dropping into the mid 20s. No precipitation is expected Sunday or Monday. Highs will remain in the 50s and 60s through the long-term, except for Friday, where 40s should be expected. The NBM/NDFD is not accounting for the precipitation keeping temperatures cooler, so take 5-10 degrees off of that output.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1010 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Northerly surface winds will gust 20-25 kts through the overnight, diminishing Tuesday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.