textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog possible late tonight into Sunday morning.

- Scattered light rain showers this afternoon and tonight, with best chance of measurable precipitation south of I-70.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Shortwave trough ejecting ahead of the main upper system in the west will bring a chance for light showers today, spreading north to south during the morning and afternoon. Best chances for measurable precipitation will be south of Interstate 70. It will also be windy, with southeast winds gusting 30-50 mph by this afternoon, highest in Colorado, as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure in the Mississippi River valley and deepening low pressure in Colorado.

As the main upper trough emerges from the southern Rockies tonight, a cut off low will develop in the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle region. Light rain chances will continue through the night generally south of Interstate 70, ending by around 12z as the system continues to move east. Total QPF for the event will be up to a 0.25" south of Interstate 70 and a few hundredths north, though 10th percentiles continue to indicate even southern areas may end up with less than 0.10" as the system is just too far south. Fog will be a concern Saturday night through Sunday morning, with short term models suggesting widespread dense fog will be possible in Colorado and generally west of Highway 25 in Kansas. The fog will be slow to dissipate on Sunday and may persist into the early afternoon for areas south of Interstate 70. The low clouds will persist through most of the day, with perhaps some partial clearing north of the Interstate late in the day.

An upper ridge will build over the area on Monday ahead of the next system approaching the California coast. Should finally see some afternoon sun with breezy south to southwest winds gusting up to 35 mph.

Temperatures will be below normal through the weekend with a small diurnal range due to the clouds and precipitation. Highs will be in the 40s and lows in the 30s. Temperatures will be near normal on Monday with highs in the low to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

A more active weather pattern is in store for the Tri-State area next week. Synoptically, we begin with a ridge centered over the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. This system looks to be positively tilted as a longwave trough moves across the western CONUS and pushes said ridge eastward. Southwest flow aloft should result as our county warning area (CWA) sits right in between the two Rossby waves. On Wednesday, the aforementioned trough deamplifies quite a bit, sending a fairly strong upper-level jet through our region. Guidance is a little more uncertain after this process but most ensembles have weak ridging that forms Thursday before another trough moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest. This next troughing pattern brings with it another closed low aloft late next week that will define conditions for our area, dependent on the track and strength of the system overall. Models are still in disagreement on these two parameters at the moment.

There will be two opportunities for rain during this four-day period. The first of which presents via a surface low that is forecasted to move north of the CWA on Wednesday with trough #1. There should be a cold front with this system but guidance currently has dew points in the 30s after it passes so any precipitation would be pre-frontal. At the moment, there is low confidence of rain with this first system as Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) stand at around 10-20%. Trough #2 should be accompanied by another low- pressure system on Friday that could bring another front through the Tri-State area. Confidence on rainfall is surprisingly high given the uncertain track of the low. PoPs are currently 50-70% throughout the entire CWA but trends regarding evolution of this system will need to be monitored heading into next week.

Another potential result from this upbeat synoptic pattern is boosted surface winds. Two different upper-level jets are forecasted to influence our area, ushering in breezy conditions at the surface. As the first jet passes overhead Tuesday, 20-35 mph southerly winds are likely. Gusts up to 40 mph will be possible too, especially in eastern parts of the CWA. Wednesday's winds should be just as strong, but with the stronger gusts located in the Colorado counties as well as east of US-83. There is a low chance(20%) of gusts up to 45 mph on Wednesday. Winds die down Thursday after the first system departs but 10-20 mph is still in the realm of possibilities. Friday's system should bring more windy conditions with a general 20- 30 anticipated. Gusts in the 45-50 mph will be possible in eastern Colorado.

Temperatures are likely to be average or even slightly above average for this time of the year. Highs in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday should warm into 60s Wednesday. Thursdays high temps sit in the 52- 60 degree range and Friday shows consistent 60s as well. Nighttime lows will start warmer on Wednesday in the 35-42 range but will fall quite a bit after the first cold front Thursday morning with 30s expected across the board. Some locations in the western CWA may drop into the 20s and other locations east of Colby may only fall into the upper 30s. Nevertheless, Friday morning low should bounce back a bit into the upper 30s/low 40s. Fire weather should remain a non-factor for the time being with RHs generally above 40%. Fog may be possible with RHs reaching 100% Wednesday and Friday mornings.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1120 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Goodland: Ongoing MVFR ceilings are expected to deteriorate to IFR late this afternoon and to further deteriorate to LIFR this evening. LIFR conditions are likely to prevail through mid-late Sunday morning. Modest improvement to IFR may occur near the end of the TAF period (~17Z Sun). S to SE winds at 25-30 knots gusting up to 40 knots will decrease to 18-23 knots gusting to 28-33 knots during the mid-late afternoon and further decrease to 10-15 knots this evening and overnight. Light SE to S winds will prevail thereafter, through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

McCook: VFR ceilings ~3,500 ft AGL are expected to persist through the afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR late this evening, with further deterioration to IFR expected tonight. IFR conditions are likely to prevail through late Sunday morning. Modest improvement to MVFR may occur near the end of the TAF period (~17Z Sun). SE winds at 15-25 knots will decrease to 10-15 knots after sunset this evening. Light SE winds will prevail thereafter, through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.