textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming up today with near record to record highs Wednesday.

- Today, briefly critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon near the Tri-State border. Fire Weather Watch issued Wednesday for Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties. - Cold front passes early Thursday with the potential for strong winds, fire weather and a low chance of blowing dust.

- Low potential for active weather early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1208 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Current satellite observations show a large ridge over the Western United States, with the Tri-State area just ahead in the northwest flow. This is what is bringing the higher level cloud cover over the area early this morning. At the surface, the high pressure is continuing to slide to the east with low pressure building in along the Front Range. With this, winds have started the night around 10- 20 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph. Going into the daytime today, the pressure gradient should weaken as the low broadens and overtakes the area. This should lower winds to be more in the 5 to 10 mph range. As for temperatures, we remain forecast to be warmer today as the upper ridge is expected to expand east over the area. With 850mb temps warming into the low to mid 20s celsius, daytime highs should warm into the 80s. If the forecast next wave of mid-level moisture moves through a bit faster, some areas could see cloud cover thicken and temperatures stay more in the upper 70s. Critical fire weather concerns remain low with the winds forecast to be fairly light. There is about a 25% chance that Yuma and surrounding counties may have a couple of hours of gusts reach 25-30 mph if they can mix to 700mb. Tonight, skies may start mostly cloudy before clearing later in the night. With winds remaining around 5-10 mph from the west/southwest, temperatures are forecast to cool into the 40s and low 50s.

Wednesday, the upper ridge axis is forecast to move over the area during the day. With the upper level high over the area and continued low level south/southwest flow, we are forecast to warm into the 90s and break record temperatures. While Wednesday will have a lot of similarities to last Saturday, temperatures should be a little cooler in comparison as the ridge is forecast to be flattened and limit our max potential. So instead of mid to upper 90s, low 90s with a few mid 90s are forecast for Wednesday. Wednesday is also forecast to have winds remain fairly light as the next system is much more delayed. With this, broad low pressure and winds around 5 to 10 mph are forecast through the day. The issue for critical fire weather conditions and the reason the Fire Weather Watch remains in effect is that the flattening upper pattern is forecast to increase the upper flow strength. Winds around 700mb could reach 30 kts, but mainly for northern and eastern portions of the area. This could lead to the somewhat rare scenario of where the sustained winds are low, but gusts reach critical fire weather criteria of 25-30 mph. Wednesday night, we are forecast to see some brief low level moisture recovery with the low center shifting to be more across the area and extending to the northeast. This should pull moisture north and end any concern for fire weather conditions. As long as the suggested timing of the system passage holds, winds should remain fairly light overnight at 5-15 mph with a few mid level clouds passing through. Temperatures are forecast to drop to around 50.

Thursday, the front/low pressure system is forecast to slowly push through the area to the south during the day as an upper trough slides through the Northern Plains. With the main trough axis well to the northeast and the wave being fairly broad, the low pressure system is also forecast to remains somewhat broad. While not forecast to stop an increase in the winds, winds are forecast to be a little lower than the last system. The current forecast is for winds to increase during the late morning and afternoon hours to around 15-25 mph with gusts around 30-40 mph. With this forecast, there could be some blowing dust patches, especially when winds shift to out of the north and begin to increase in speed. However, the magnitude would likely be too low for widespread or high impacts. Looking at ensembles, there appears to be about a 10% chance that winds become strong enough for greater dust concerns. This would mainly be in the scenario where the front passes quicker and the cold air moves in sooner, tightening the pressure gradient. Impacts may also be slightly higher if the front is too slow and we warm closer to 90 instead of the low 70s and 80s. At that point, low level mixing may be better supportive of lofting dust, though it would also be more likely to over mix and lead to little impacts. The bigger concern with a slower passage is that the southern half of the area (mainly south of I-70) could then become warm and dry enough for critical fire weather conditions. Given the prolonged dryness, fires would likely spread very rapidly in that case. It'll be something to watch in the next few forecast packages. Thursday night is forecast to see the winds remain elevated around 10-15 mph, but lower than the daytime hours. With cold air advecting in from the north, temperatures are forecast to drop to around or just below freezing.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Northwest flow on Friday will flatten out to a zonal flow over the weekend atop a ridge centered over the southern plains. The ridge moves east early next week with a southwest flow developing. Precipitation chances, though slim, will be confined to the latter part of the period with embedded waves in the southwest flow possibly bringing a few showers or isolated thunderstorms. Instability on Monday is fairly limited, less than 500 j/kg, as is deep layer shear which is around 20 kts. So, do not see any severe weather risk at this time if a thunderstorm even manages to develop due to weak forcing. As for fire weather, Saturday will be the windiest day of the period with south winds gusting 30-50 mph and relative humidity dropping into the teens. If lower dew points can be reached may see a critical fire weather day, although mixing heights are not particularly high at 4 kft and the southerly wind direction is also not the best for downslope help in lowering dew points. Winds will not be as strong Sunday and Monday although relative humidity remains low, with only elevated to perhaps occasionally critical conditions with gusts in the 20-30 mph range currently forecast.

Temperatures for the period will start out slightly below normal on Friday (50s), then warming to above normal on Saturday (60s and 70s) and much above normal on Sunday and Monday (80s). Low temperatures on Friday and Saturday mornings will dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s, then 30s and 40s for Sunday and Monday mornings.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Some cloud cover is forecast to linger above 10000ft through most of the day. Winds are forecast to slowly shift from out of the south/southeast to out of the west/southwest through the day. Speeds should generally be around 10 kts or less. There could be a few periods of low level wind shear tonight with speeds of 30-40 kts around 200-400ft forecast. The most likely time looks to be between 03-07Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 415 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record high temperatures (for the date) are possible on Wednesday March 25.

================================================== Record Highs for Wed March 25 Current Forecast ================================================== Burlington.........83 in 1998 91 Goodland...........85 in 1907 92 Hill City..........88 in 1956 94 McCook.............88 in 1910 92

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NEZ079>081.