textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Another mild day today before a cold front moves through this evening and overnight. Gusty to strong winds of 35-45 mph with and behind the front. Isolated gusts around 55 mph along and east of Highway 83.

- Light snow late Saturday night through Sunday morning with accumulations less than one inch expected. Patchy blowing snow possible Sunday morning.

- Colder on Sunday and Monday with wind chills around below zero Monday morning.

- Warmer than average and mild conditions return Tuesday and remain through the rest of the workweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Dec 27 2025

Southwesterly mid level synoptic flow is ongoing across the area with embedded waves within the flow which is keeping high cirrus continuing across the area. For the day have nudged temperatures down a few degrees as within a somewhat similar pattern yesterday the clouds impacted how warm temperatures were able to get. There is also a developing low in the area as well which will lead to winds becoming more NNE especially across the norther portion of the area. Have included some 15% rain chances to the area as well as 500mb vorticity lobe moves through the area associated with one of the mid level shortwaves which may lead to some spotty showers. There is dry air near the surface but think that the forcing may be enough to overcome that for some very light rain amounts for a lucky few.

Main focus for the forecast is on a cold front this moving into the area mid evening and eventually through the entire area through the early morning hours. Winds are forecast to increase with the front with gusts of 35-40 knots but some 40-45 knot gusts and perhaps an isolated 50 knot gust will be possible across eastern portions of the area as the front interacts with the shortwave and the continued cold air advection further increases mixing. Should we get 50 knot wind gusts think the most likely outcome would be an instance or two which is not enough to chase a High Wind products at this time as confidence in that is only around 10%. I did include some patchy blowing dust in the forecast with the progression of the front as with the initial cold front last Wednesday, we did have localized reductions in visibility (before the very strong winds occurred) with winds looking similar to that in the 30-40 knot range. At this time significant reductions in visibility looks unlikely with this front mainly due to the winds not being as strong and low and mid level lapse rates not being supportive of long lived blowing dust occurrences.

A brief period of rain before changing over to snow still remains forecast with/behind the front. Do have some slight concerns of a period of freezing drizzle as low levels may take some time to saturate but freezing drizzle typically does not occur if winds are to strong leading confidence to be about 5% in that scenario. Peak of the snowfall currently appears to be between 5-9am MT as 06Z NAM and RAP shows some seeder feeder potential which may briefly increase snowfall rates some leading to some spotty 1-2 inch totals somewhere across eastern Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS), Sherman counties but continue to think that the majority of the area will generally see an inch or less of snow. With the winds, blowing snow as snow is falling remains a concern especially with the post holiday travel. Using the Aberdeen Snowfall Model based on current forecast the probability of visibilities falling below 1/2SM is around 30-40%, but if winds are a little stronger than forecast as pressure rises are in the range of 6-10mb over three hours along with continued cold air advection helping further the atmosphere to mix. SHould this occur then a 10% chance of pockets of blizzard- like conditions are possible as well. Think the most likely area for blowing snow will be along and west of a Dundy to Wallace county line where snow is most likely to occur.

Another hazard with this system, which may be the one I have the most confidence is with re-freeze potential as confidence remains high that high temperatures for the day will not get above freezing. Confidence in any re-freeze of precipitation or even black ice is around 50%. The factor that is keeping my confidence a little lower is the potential for the wind to dry out any residual precipitation quicker, if it wasn't for that then my confidence would be around 70- 80%.

High temperatures for Sunday remain forecast mainly below freezing due to anticipated cloud cover and the cold air mass in place. If the clouds can clear out a little quicker then current forecast may be around 3-5 degrees to cold. Confidence in the clouds moving out quicker is around 20-30%.

Sunday night and into Monday morning, a surface high nudges in which drops wind down to around 10-15 mph. A very dry and cold air mass does move in with dewpoints at least in the low single digits which leads to high confidence in low temperatures falling into the single digits as well as clouds will clear out. Current wind chills are forecast around 0 to -5 below zero. If winds are a little stronger then wind chills may even approach -10 in spots. If winds can taper off even more and radiational cooling occurs then some lows may fall near zero.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1203 AM MST Sat Dec 27 2025

Throughout the day Monday and overnight, a ridge will build in, allowing temperatures to start a warming trend through the long- term. Highs on Monday should warm into the mid 30s to near 40, but Tuesday and Wednesday look to warm into the upper 40s to 50s. Overnight temperatures will also be warming, with Monday night's lows largely remaining in the mid to upper teens and the following two nights remaining in the 20s.

Tuesday, RH values are expected to dry to around 20% for areas along and south of U.S. 40. Winds are expected to remain under 15 kts, so fire weather is not a notable concern at this time. This is the best day for fire weather concerns, so we'll continue to keep an eye on it.

Thursday, long range guidance is showing a trough move southeast over the Great Lakes, pushing the polar jet slightly to the southwest. This will lead in mildly cooler temperatures Thursday. The northeastern CWA looks to be capped out in the low 40s with the southwestern CWA warming to near 50. Overnight lows don't seem to be impacted too much, likely remaining around 20 for lows. However, temperatures look to rebound quickly the following days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 419 AM MST Sat Dec 27 2025

Westerly winds this morning is forecast to give way to more variable winds late this morning and afternoon as a low moves on through the area. Mid to high clouds are forecast to continue streaming through the area. There is a 10-15% chance of some sprinkles or light showers affecting either terminal today as a weak wave moves through so will be something to monitor. A cold front is forecast to move through this evening and overnight as winds shift to the north and become breezy gusting 30-40 knots. Light snow is forecast to develop as well leading to blowing snow with a 30% chance of visibilities falling to around 1SM for GLD and 3SM for MCK. There is a 10% chance that visibilities could drop further. MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast to move in as well towards the end of the period. Will need to keep an eye on LLWS just ahead of the front as well, did not include it for this TAF as there are still timing differences as when the front will move through.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.