textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- For is forecast to linger through the morning. The fog may be dense at times.

- Chances for rain through Monday.

- Monday & Tuesday could bring some strong winds with gusts around 30-60 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 126 AM MDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Current observations have upper ridging taking shape over the region. At the surface, we have low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east. This is allowing for more low level moisture to funnel in and has led to low clouds across the area and fog. The fog hasn't been thick yet with the cloud cover, but there is an 80% chance that patches of dense fog will develop south of Highway 36 before sunrise.

During the day, the upper ridge is forecast to slide east while a trough slides east into the Rockies. As it does so, it is forecast to deepen the low pressure along the Front Range. This should increase the winds to be more around 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. The higher winds are forecast to favor Eastern Colorado, closer to the surface low. This increase in winds should burn any fog off during the morning, but the cloud cover will likely stick around through the day with no dry air forecast to come in and clear the clouds. Temperatures then should slowly rise towards the 60s as we get to the afternoon hours.

Overnight, precipitation chances are forecast to increase as we keep the moist air mass in place while the surface low nears the area. With the additional forcing from the surface low/front and upper trough, showers are forecast to develop with maybe a few storms sneaking in. Instabilty will likely be too low for any strong storms to develop, though periods of heavier rain are possible. With winds remaining strong from the advancing low and precipitation in the area, dense fog chances will be much lower. Fog would likely form early in the evening and then fade during the overnight hours. This looks to be further compounded by the surface low bringing a dry slot to the area. Even with all of this happening though, temperatures will likely remain similar to the past few days with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Monday is forecast to start with a brief reprieve from the wind, unless the faster ensemble solutions verify and the front moves through at sunrise. Either way, the front should pass through most of the area during the morning and increase the winds. There is still a decent spread in the solutions, but the main core of the system is forecast to push north while the upper trough broadens out. With this broadening of the low pressure system, we would likely see winds from the northwest at 15-35 mph with gusts around 30-50 mph. The stronger winds should again favor Eastern Colorado with the earlier frontal passage. There remains about a 20-30% chance that the low remains more concentrated and pushes gusts more into the 40-65 mph range. The more shocking thing though is that if the dry slot doesn't shift, we could actually see the sun for a bit on Monday with clear skies until the low moves enough for the wrap around moisture. This does give the area another chance for rain and storms, especially if the front stalls near or just south of the area. Should storms develop, there is a 5% chance that one would produce strong wind gusts around 60-70 mph with the downshear vectors around 55 knots and overall strong flow. The limiter is the better instability could be south of the area, and severe wind gusts from storms are less likely when the environmental flow and gusts are above 40 mph.

Monday night, the system is forecast to stall out just east of the area. This is forecast to lead to an interesting night with strong wind remaining over the area (20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph) and some wrap around rain showers moving through. Fog would also be possible, though dense fog probably won't form with the strong winds and downslope component to the winds. Cold air advection is forecast behind the front with temperatures lowering into the 30s as the night goes on. The more showers and cloud cover we have though, the warmer we will likely be.

Tuesday, the system is forecast to slowly push off to the east. The forecast is for a windy start with winds remaining around 20-35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. A few lingering showers could also move through during the morning hours. As the day progresses, the winds should lighten and the showers end. Skies are also forecast to begin clearing. In spite of the clearing skies, the cold air that moved in is forecast to keep temperatures in the 40s and 50s during the day. The night time hours are then forecast to drop winds to around 5 to 10 mph with mostly clear skies across the area. This should allow temperatures to drop into the 20s and 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 300 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

On Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level pattern starts to transition into zonal flow as the system from Tuesday finally exits out of the area as a trough to the west begins to move east and pass over the area midday Thursday. Then on Friday and the remainder of the period, we can expect some slight ridging before turning back to a broad and slow moving trough that could dig into the County Warning Area (CWA). While confidence for the evolution for the overall pattern on Thursday increases from low to medium (30% to 50%), there is still some uncertainty with the overall pattern on Thursday as a possible cut-off low from the system on Tuesday could form just north of the area and combine with the primary trough. For the rest of the period, ensemble spread does show some variability of the ridge and could amplify to the north on Friday. This could then potentially push the broad trough on Saturday to the southwest and stall over the Nevada and Utah border. There is low confidence (25%) that the ridge would amplify to the north.

Temperatures throughout second half of next week look to be fairly consistent. While afternoon highs are forecast to stay in the 50s, the morning hours will likely be a little cold as temperatures over the Tri-State border continue to be at or nearly above freezing with slightly warmer temperatures towards the east.

For precipitation, a brief shower could happen Thursday as a weak cold front passes through with the trough. While there is some vorticity over the area, the main limiting factor is the lack of mid-layer moisture aloft.However, there is low confidence (30%) that showers could occur. If showers do occur it is favored to be south of I-70 within the very early morning hours. On Saturday, there could be a chance for showers throughout the day as the broad trough passes through. However with the low confidence within the patterns evolution, chances for showers could diminish as time progresses closer. On late Saturday night, with the freezing temperatures and the possibility for precipitation, there is a potential for rain/snow mix within far western Kit Carson County. Although, no snow accumulation is expected at this point.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 429 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Ceilings around 1000ft and visibility between 2-6SM with fog is forecast through about 16-18Z. KGLD has a 30% chance of still seeing 1/4 to 1/2 visibility, so be alert for rapidly changing conditions. After 18Z, ceilings will likely remain steady until rain starts trying to move in from the west. There may be a few stray showers before 22Z, but the main batch is forecast to be in the area around 22-06Z. Most of the precipitation should just be showers, but there could be a storm or two embedded. The last thing to note is that the winds should increase throughout the period. Be careful to of spotty low level wind shear after 03Z with 50-60 kts winds a few hundred feet up possible.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.