textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from mid afternoon today through this evening. Wind gusts up to 50 mph is most likely with this activity but locally higher wind gusts can't be ruled out.

- Another chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, strong to severe storms may be possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 444 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Dry air has been winning out thus far on the shower potential. Confidence in declining in strong wind gusts due to the shortwave running around an hour behind further limiting the potential for localized strong wind gusts as we lose day time heating.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1142 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Back to warmer weather today as westerly downsloping winds brings back high temperatures in the 70s for the area. Winds are however a little breezy due to the presence of a surface trough across the area; sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph are forecast. The tightened pressure gradient due to the trough lessens as the day goes on due to a more broad surface low moving in from the north so the breeziest winds are forecast to be during the morning hours. Sustained winds during the afternoon are forecast to weaken some but with mixing heights around 8000-10000 feet AGL some stronger gusts of 25-30 mph may be able to mix down during the afternoon hours.

Focus then turns to an embedded shortwave within the northwest flow that is forecast to lead to some shower and isolated thunderstorm development favoring northern counties starting as early as 2pm MT and lasting through around 7pm MT. The overall environment isn't forecast to be ideal for strong to severe storms with a couple hundred j/kg of MUCAPE. 0-6km shear is forecast to be around 40 knots however along with steep lapse rates around 8.0 c/km in place which suggests that some updraft organization could be possible. The main concern for the day with any of these updrafts would be the potential for spotty severe downburst or microburst winds. Inverted V soundings with around a 35-40 degree dew point depression coupled with light surface winds and low effective bulk wind difference around 13 knots suggests that some wind gusts around 60 mph may be possible this afternoon. Overall confidence in at least one severe wind gust is low around 20-30% but the past few runs of the HREF going back to the 00Z 5/6 run does show the potential for this as well looking at the Max Gust output. Should these strong winds come to fruition can't completely rule out some blowing dust due to unstable low level lapse rates and some potential for some capping lapse rates as seen on the 13Z HRRR. Have concerns that mixing heights may be a bit to high however to fully cap any dust to the surface and of course with the recent rain and moist conditions the top soil may be too wet for anything to get saturated. Due to this confidence in any impactful to visibility (less than 1 mile) is currently less than 5% at this time.

Overnight, there is potential for additional showers and non severe storms to develop across the area as 250mb jet max nose nudges into the area with the CWA in the left exit region of the jet. 12Z RAP also suggests that some areas of 700mb frontogenesis could be in place along or just near the I70 corridor from roughly Colby back across Kit Carson which if any convection were to form a narrow corridor of moderate rain may be able to form. Confidence in the overnight rain is around 15-24% but high enough to include in the forecast at this time.

Friday, similar NW synoptic flow pattern remains in place on Friday with similar high temperatures forecast. 850mb moisture content is forecast to be high as well which leads me to believe that clouds may be bit more pronounced than what guidance is currently suggesting. 09Z RAP cross section analysis also is suggesting this as well. Guidance shows increasing pressure heights which is currently forecast to lead to a dry forecast for the area. Sustained winds from the northwest are forecast to be in place with the magnitudes being around 20 mph. Due to a departing 700mb jet during the afternoon when mixing is at its peak the threat for any higher wind gusts looks to be few and far between to even possibly non existent.

Saturday, temperatures are forecast to warm even more into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area as a low pressure system across the SW advects in warmer temperatures. The current consensus via deterministic guidance is to place the low across eastern New Mexico but there still remains a large spread via ensembles where the low will set up including up into southeast Colorado. If this were to happen then temperatures may actually be a bit cooler than forecast and the threat for afternoon showers and storms may increase due to better moisture remaining in place across the area. This is similar to what the 06Z ECMWF is depicting and NAM has been trending this route as well from the 06 to 12Z runs. If this were to come to fruition then severe storms may be present with around 1000-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40 knots of 0-6km shear in place. Large hail would be the primary concern followed by damaging winds. On the contrary if the low sets up in eastern New Mexico which currently is favored then the afternoon round of storms would be eliminated due to the better forcing remaining away from the CWA. The focus would then turn to a shortwave and cold front which would initiate more showers and storms during the evening and overnight. Current guidance progs this as not being quite as conducive for severe weather due to more limited instability but hail up to quarter size currently appears to be the primary hazard should any hazards evolve. With the cold front, especially if the 12Z GFS verifies, strong cold air advection with the front would look to increase the 850mb wind field to around 40-45 knots. This signal has been seen on the past few runs of the GFS as well. This looks to be tied to the quicker progression of the front due to the further south positioning of the low. WIll be interesting to see this trends over the next few days.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

The upper flow for Sunday has a ridge starting to move into the region. High temperatures cool off with highs in the low 70s, along with lows in the lower 40s. Winds look to be calm to 10 mph. Relative Humidity (RH) values look to be in the 30% range and overall a calm weather day.

For Monday and Tuesday, the ridge fully moves into the area with the center of the wave over the Dakotas / Montana boarder. The weather that will be brought with this system is warm temperatures and drier conditions.

The high temperatures will be mainly in the mid to upper 80s. However on Monday, there is a 10% chance of exceeding 90 degrees for locations east of Hwy 83. The low temperatures look to hang around the 40s. The wind gusts for this period stay in the 15-25 mph range. Overall RH values stay above 20%. The only exception is Monday, where west of Hwy 27 they drop to the low to mid teens. There is a 30-50% chance that Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in CO see values less than 15%.

Wednesday and Thursday has a new upper pattern change begins with the ridge moving out the region. Currently guidance has some disagreement with on whether or not a trough will begin to develop/strengthen and move east of the west coast off the CONUS. This currently leaves some uncertainties up in the air with how things will evolve.

The warm high temperatures remain Wednesday, with values in the mid to upper 80s. The low temperatures do warm to 50s. There is a signal for at least elevated fire concerns. Currently wind gusts are showing signs of being above 35 mph with the probability of exceeding being around 10-25%. Looking at RH values they remain in the 20% range with some localized upper teens. GFDI values are currently forecast to be "very high" which does lead to some concern with fire spread potential. More investigation will be needed as we move closer to the event as time moves on.

Thursday's highs look to remain in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the 50s. RH values look to remain in the 20% range. Wind gust however, don't look to be as strong as Wednesday. There is some signals that we could see an afternoon shower, but this depends on what happens with our synoptic pattern and how that evolves.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 349 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions remain forecast for each terminal. Confidence has decreased in showers and storms for the terminals due to dry air winning out so far but some gusty winds could be associated with any decaying shower or if a shower/storm can affect a terminal. Due to very low confidence in exact timing of any of this will leave out of the TAF for now. Winds are forecast to become light and variable overnight before turning to the northwest mid morning where gusts of 20-25 knots return.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.