textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread fog likely tonight along and north of a Yuma, Colorado, to Hays, Kansas, line. The fog may be dense with visibilities reduced to a quarter of a mile or less.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms start today and continue through the weekend. Best chances will be Friday night and again on Saturday night. Rain may be heavy at times Saturday night.

- Above normal temperatures through Thursday, then cooling to near and slightly below normal behind a cold front Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Upper ridge over the southeast CONUS today will drift westward through the period ending up in Texas and Oklahoma over the weekend. A trough in the Pacific northwest, remnants of a cut off low, will move into the northern and central Rockies on Saturday. Embedded waves in the southwest flow around the ridge combined with the approaching trough will result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, the old front in southern Kansas will lift north today through Friday, before surging south again Saturday. A surface low will develop on the front in northeast Colorado, with a trough south through eastern Colorado. Any of these numerous mesoscale boundaries in the area could be a focus for thunderstorm development the next several days. While instability and deep layer shear remain relatively weak, there is a modest increase in both parameters each day, and by Saturday instability will be around 1000 j/kg and shear around 30 kts. The probability for severe weather will be low today and Thursday, but may start to see a marginal risk by Friday and Saturday.

Tonight, isolated to widely scattered showers will move in from southeast Colorado, but latest CAMs showing minimal coverage. More impactful will be the return of low clouds and fog overnight. The fog may be widespread and dense by sunrise along and north of a Yuma, Colorado, to Hays, Kansas line.

On Thursday, the fog will take most of the morning to burn off, followed by partly sunny skies and a few isolated showers in the afternoon. The main area of convection will develop along the Front Range and far northeast Colorado in the afternoon, moving into the Nebraska panhandle in the evening, with more scattered activity in the Tri State area as the upper wave passes by, ending by around 06z.

For Friday, the cold front moves through the area during the day and ends up near or just east of the area by peak heating in the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the front, as well as in the post frontal regime in northeast Colorado. Those storms will move east into the area Friday night.

The area remains post frontal on Saturday with easterly upslope winds. Scattered storms will develop once again in Colorado, with some help from the upper trough moving in from the west, then moving through the area Saturday night. Model QPF is notably higher Saturday night than previous days, with 12-hour probabilities through 12z Sunday of greater than 0.50" at around 60% and even some low probabilities (around 20%) of greater than 1", highest amounts generally north of Interstate 70.

Temperatures will be above normal through Thursday with highs in the 90s. A cold front on Friday will drop temperatures closer to normal, ranging from the mid 80s in Colorado to the lower 90s in north central Kansas. Temperatures will be slightly below normal on Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 251 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Synoptically, on Sunday morning an upper level trough looks to begin moving through the Tri-State Area, potentially with an associated weak jet streak. Come Monday, the trough begins to move eastward and out of the area. Our upper level flow should then return to come from the west until around Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

High temperatures for the long term look to remain cooler than previous days, with highs mainly in the 70s. The warmest day of the period looks to be Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for the majority of the CWA. Winds are forecast to be light and variable throughout the late weekend into the early work week. During this period, there are chances for the majority of the area to see typical afternoon showers/storms. Sunday currently looks to have the greatest chance of seeing precipitation. NBM guidance shows around a 30-60% chance of exceeding 0.1 inches of precip from the early morning, and decreasing in the afternoon. Monday through Wednesday the Probability of Precipitation is around 20-40% each afternoon. Guidance indicates lower values of CAPE and moderate shear, which would lean more towards showers than severe storms.

Beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, uncertainty in the forecast begins to increase. For Tuesday night, guidance is hinting at troughing in the Western CONUS. By Wednesday morning, an upper level ridge is expected to be located over the Southern US / Gulf region, with signs of a weak trough moving through the Northern Plains. The primary uncertainty lies in how strong the high will be, where its center will locate, and whether the weak trough to the west moves quickly, slowly, or remains nearly stationary. Guidance indicates the center of the ridge could be as far north as the AR/MO/OK border or as far south as the Gulf. Certain models show the trough sweeping through in a single day, while others keep it near stationary over the AZ/CA/NV border. The exact locations of the ridge and trough will impact our precipitation chances for Wednesday. It will be interesting to see how guidance handles this upper level pattern uncertainty as we get closer.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 423 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible tonight, but confidence is low of impacting either terminal. However, low clouds and areas of dense fog will develop overnight north of Interstate 70, with a high probability (greater than 60%) of impacting KMCK with IFR to VLIFR conditions through Thursday morning. Confidence is lower (around 20%) that KGLD will be impacted.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.