textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Another chance for storms this evening. 1-1.5 inch hail and 55-70 MPH winds are the primary threats.

- Better chance for severe weather on Tuesday, with all hazards possible.

- Above normal temperatures through at least mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1222 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A 500 mb high over New Mexico paired with a low over the Great Lakes regions keeps the Tri-State area under fairly persistent northwesterly flow. This will let temperatures warm up into the 90s, potentially briefly 100 degrees today, and low 90s tomorrow. More importantly, this give us daily chance at convection.

Early this morning easterly winds east of U.S. 83 may provide enough up-slope cooling to produce some patchy fog across the CWA. There's only a ~10% chance visibility drop below a mile in the fog, but isolated patches of dense fog are not impossible. Throughout the day, we will have a weak surface low moving over the CWA, leading to fairly weak and variable winds. We could still see some gusts up to 20-25 kts, but these should be rare.

Around 23-01Z this afternoon, our next round of convection looks to be entering the CWA from the west, driven by a 500 mb shortwave trough. The setup today is similar to yesterday's, and storms may not occur in our area. However, there is better forcing today than Sunday had, leading to a 50% chance of storms occurring in the CWA. Scattered to clusters of supercells seem to be the likely mode. The more isolated a cell is, the better chance is will have to be severe, but there's a 60% chance storms cluster together early and would likely only muster 50-70 MPH winds and 0.75-1.5 inch hail. If an isolated cell matures ahead of other convection, we could see 2.5 inch hail, a microburst of 80 MPH, and a brief tornado. Potential for this occurring is less than 5%. There is also a 25% chance of flash flooding from either training storms or right/left moving storms, as these motions are around 15-20 kts. The bulk of the convection looks to remain west of KS 27. All in all, storms are likely, but there is only a small, conditional threat of high-end severe weather. Most likely area to see the severe storms would be near and north of the Tri-State border.

Convection looks to end around 6-9Z, and then temperatures will drop into the mid 60s, again. There is a growing potential that convection will persist until closer to 12-15Z Tuesday morning. If this occurs, temperatures may remain capped in the upper 80s and the afternoon severe threat may not occur. Current probability of this happening is around 40%. Confidence has increased in this solution as more guidance is showing this, leaving the lower levels a mess for Tuesday evening, lowering the potential for highly organized convection.

However, the potential for widespread convection Tuesday evening is still a threat, so let's discuss it. Most likely start time for the "main show" will be around 22-0Z. A cold front will be draped across the CWA, running from near McCook, NE to around Kit Carson, CO when convection looks to initiate. In the first couple hours of convection, isolated storms are favored before becoming a cluster, or even QLCS moving to the southeast. Isolated storms will have a better chance at producing hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch range, but will be less likely to produce winds above 65 MPH. As the system matures, the hail threat lowers, but the wind threat increases. As clusters or a line forms, winds up to 80 MPH are possible, while hail would top out around 1.75 inches. There will be a low, but persistent tornado threat through the event. Convection would likely clear our area around 9Z.

There are still a lot of unknowns about Tuesday's severe weather, including placement of the front when it fires and how much early morning convection disturbs the environment. Lows Tuesday night look to cool a little more, behind the cold front, down closer to 60s for most of the CWA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances.

High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Saturday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period.

Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chances then begins to taper off to 5-25% for Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at both KGLD and KMCK. Winds will start the period primarily out of the south at both airports, but will begin to rotate clockwise throughout the period for KGLD. Winds for KMCK will become more easterly during the mid-afternoon hours today. There is a small probability for fog to develop at KMCK (10%) from about 09-12z, and would be most likely if cloud cover can clear out and allow for radiational cooling. Both KGLD and KMCK have a risk for thunderstorms toward the end of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.