textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- The area is forecast to have precipitation chances through most of the week, with higher chances towards the weekend.

- Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon generally along and south of a Hill City to Tribune line in northwest Kansas. If storms develop, hail will be the main hazard.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Upper low moving through the northern plains will force a cold front through the area tonight and Wednesday. The front will be the focus for convective initiation Wednesday afternoon. CAMs are in fairly good agreement that this will occur south of the area, though the NAMnest initiates an hour or two earlier, and thus further north, compared to the other models, leaving a slight chance for areas generally south of a Hill City to Tribune line in northwest Kansas. Main limiting factor for severe storms will be weak instability, generally less than 500 j/kg, though deep layer shear is supportive of supercells at around 30-40kts at 21z and increasing to 40-50kts by 00z if an updraft is still in the area at that time. Further west, there will be a window for elevated fire weather conditions in western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado between 16-23Z where westerly winds ahead of the front will result in relative humidity as low as 10%. However, wind speeds stay below critical levels with peak mean gusts of around 20 mph and perhaps a sporadic gust to 25 mph around mid afternoon with deepest mixing. Widely scattered showers may persist into Wednesday night with a weak shortwave in the zonal flow aloft, but CAMs are mostly dry with NBM pops driven by the slightly wetter, and probably overdone, ECMWF. Temperatures on Wednesday will be warmest ahead of the front south of Interstate 70 where upper 70s will be possible, cooling to the upper 60s for highs well behind the front along the Kansas and Nebraska border area.

Zonal flow continues on Thursday with embedded weak waves coming out of the central Rockies resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Southerly winds will be advecting moisture into the area with dew points in the low to mid 40s by the afternoon in Kansas and Nebraska. This will result in weak instability with SBCAPE 500-1000 j/kg and deep layer shear of 25-35kts. Best combination of those parameters will be in eastern areas where could see a marginally severe storm with hail being the main risk. Better moisture, dew points in the 50s, will likely stay southeast of the area however, where the old front will be located and will be the main focus for convective initiation. May see a modest increase in shower chances Thursday night in eastern areas as a low develops along the front in central Kansas. Mean precipitation amounts Thursday night are 0.10" to 0.25" generally east of Highway 83, and lesser amounts to the west.

Zonal flow becomes southwest on Friday as an upper low moves into California. Embedded shortwaves aloft combined with low level upslope will keep the area moist with chances for showers and storms. The old front is forecast to be located just south of the area and will once again be the main focus for convection. Those storms will be moving north with the mean wind potentially into areas south of Interstate 70, where the environment will be cooler and more stable causing storms to rapidly weaken. There remains a high degree of uncertainty on Friday, mainly with the frontal location, which will impact storm chances and precipitation amounts.

Temperature trends for the short term period will be above normal tomorrow and Thursday (70s), then near to slightly below normal on Friday (50s) due to clouds and expected precipitation. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A strong upper low will dig into the western CONUS over the weekend, then emerge onto the central plains early next week. Ahead of the upper low, will see a persistent southwest flow over the central plains. Saturday will see the best combination of lift, instabilty and shear for a severe weather risk. Weak to perhaps moderate instability is forecast (90th percentiles are above 1500 j/kg) along with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. The severe risk on Sunday is more uncertain, as most models suggesting the instability will be swept east of the area with downsloping westerly winds drying out the low levels. Timing is the main uncertainly as ECMWF shows that the instability axis may linger in eastern areas into the early afternoon before the drying takes place. On Monday and Tuesday, will be watching for the main upper low to be moving through the central Rockies and into the plains with scattered showers. There is little to no instability forecast, so not expecting severe weather. However, will have to watch for a changeover to snow on Tuesday, mainly in Colorado, with a strong frontal passage Monday night. ECMWF is more aggressive with a closed low over northeast Colorado, compared to the GFS which shows an open wave and little to no snow. May also see a period of breezy to windy conditions Monday night and Tuesday with and behind the front.

Temperatures trends for the long term period will be above normal Saturday through Monday (highs mostly in the 70s, perhaps a few 80s), then cooling off behind the front on Tuesday with below normal temperatures (50s). Lows will be in the 40s Sunday and Monday night, cooling into the 20s and 30s Monday night and Tuesday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 536 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Winds will be gradually weakening over the next couple of hours. KMCK is forecast to see gusty winds return around 6Z. If the gusts do not mix to the surface, LLWS at 200-400 feet AGL will be from the south at around 45 kts, until about 13-15Z. There are low chances at precipitation through the period for both sites, but no impacts are expected.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.