textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory this morning until 11 AM CT. Visibilities around 1/4 mile and slick patches from freezing fog are possible. - Fire Weather Watch issued for Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado for Thursday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the area late Thursday afternoon and overnight.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 222 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

This morning, an 850 mb low will be exiting the High Plains, pulling in some weak CAA behind it. There is a weak surface convergence setup between KS 25 and 27 as of 7Z. West of the convergence, the cooler, northwesterly air is moving in, but east of the line, moist, easterly wind is occurring. This additional moisture advection is causing dense fog to form across the eastern CWA, prompting a Dense Fog Advisory. Dew points and temperatures are right around freezing this morning, so the threat for patches of freezing fog is higher than yesterday. There is a Dense Fog Advisory out until 17Z this morning.

At 500 mb, the low is moving over the CWA, and promoting precipitation in eastern Colorado. There is a 10% chance this precipitation will persist throughout the day as the low crosses the rest of the CWA. However, with an 850 mb ridge building in from the west, any precipitation would have a very difficult time saturating the low levels. Temperatures during the day are expected to warm into the 60s, and generally be a pleasant day!

Tonight, our next 850 mb low coming out of the Rockies, combined with the exiting ridge, will promote southerly, moist advection into the High Plains. This will once again give us a threat of fog by Thursday morning, but mainly in the eastern CWA. Potential for fog is only around 20-40%, mainly because the best moisture advection may be occurring 12-18Z.

Thursday is shaping up to be a potentially hazardous day. The moisture advection is forecast to remain out of Colorado, creating a dryline somewhere between the eastern Colorado border and the eastern CWA. Looking at the REFS, the dryline looks to set up somewhere between KS highway 25 and 27. Temperatures during the day are expected to climb into the mid 70s across the entire area.

We'll cover the dry sector first. RH values will tank in the dry sector, especially in Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties where RH values could drop to 10%. The NBM has been been pushing south- southwesterly winds gusting to 30 kts in this area, which prompted the issuance of Fire Weather Watch. However, the NBM generally has a high wind bias in eastern Colorado, and in the afternoon hours, the 850 mb low looks to stall out over eastern Colorado. This lowers the potential for gusts above 25 MPH to around 30%. Plan is to leave the Fire Weather Watch going in case the gust potential returns.

On the moist side of the dryline, RH values are forecast to remain above 20-40% as southerly winds gust up around 30 kts. While there is effectively no risk of fire weather concerns, there is a growing threat of severe thunderstorms. As mentioned above, the 850 mb low looks to stall out over eastern Colorado during the day and starts moving again around 0-6Z as the 500 mb low starts pushing in. This will cause a cold front to push in and ignite storms along the dryline, and then move them to the northeast. Peak timing for any severe weather looks to be between 3-09Z. There will be another wave of stratiform precipitation that moves in from the northwest after the initial wave of storms.

As far as potential hazards go, hail and wind are the main threat, flooding is a minor concern, but we cannot rule out a brief tornado threat. RAP, NAM, and NAMNest sounding are all very similar, but we'll be focusing on RAP soundings. In southwestern Nebraska at 3Z, the profile remains the same temperature up to about 750-800 mb from the surface, creating hefty surface layer CIN. However, MLCAPE sits around 1,000 J/kg with CIN around -125 with MUCAPE around 1,750 J/kg and CIN of -40. This certainly gives us the potential for elevated storms, and a slim chance for a storm to be close to the surface. Shear is in ample supply. EBWD, 0-1, and 0-3 km shear around 30 kts.

With all those parameters in mind, hail, if it does form, would likely be in the 0.75-1 inch range, but could be up to 1.5 inches. The wind threat is not great for dry or wet microbursts, and is only slightly better for a QLCS threat. Either way, most likely wind threat will be in the 30-45 kts range, with a maximum potential up to 50 kts. The flooding risk would really only occur if high precipitation cells are able to train over a location for 1-2+ hours, which has a 5% chance of occurring. As far as the tornado threat, while the numerical parameters are being met for a tornado, the low level lapse rates keeps a lid on this threat.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 342 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Friday morning, a surface low is forecast near the central Colorado/Kansas border with a dryline extending south to the Texas/Mexico border. An upper level trough is forecast west of the Rocky Mountains with a jet streak over our region. The left exit region of the jet being over our region will provide additional forcing for precipitation to continue throughout the day Friday. A majority of the county warning area (CWA) is likely to see rain based on forecast temperatures above freezing. Our Colorado counties may briefly drop below freezing, so a wintry mix may occur prior to sunrise. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 40-70% along and northwest of a line from Kit Carson, CO to Indianola, NE. Southeast of that line, PoPs gradually drop to 15% in the southeast CWA. Forecast high temperatures for the day range from the 40s to 60s, with the northwest CWA on the lower end. Windy conditions will continue throughout Friday. Gusts from 25-40 mph are possible with our Colorado counties being on the higher end. Overnight Friday into Saturday, winds will return to our typical diurnal pattern and precipitation will exit the region from south to north.

Saturday, we remain in a southwest upper level flow with a developing low off the coast of Baja California. Temperatures cool down in the wake of a cold frontal passage with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s. Southwest winds are forecast to be mild overall, but gusts up to 25 mph are possible Saturday afternoon for our Colorado counties. Relative humidity (RH) values are in the upper teens to 20s for the CWA. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, especially if southwest winds further dry conditions and drop RH values lower than currently forecast.

A warming trend begins Sunday with high temperatures forecast in the 60s to 70s. Currently, winds aloft are forecast to be relatively weak through the column and no jet streak is overhead of our region. This supports mild southwest winds for a majority of the CWA with gusts around 15 mph possible. Yuma county is the exception with westerly downsloping winds gusting from 20-30 mph forecast. RH values are forecast in the teens for the entire CWA, so Yuma county will likely have a few hours of critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon.

Conditions warm further Monday with highs forecast in the 70s to 80s as our region is under a mostly zonal flow with the previously mentioned low over Baja California. RH values remain in the teens for the CWA, but winds remain fairly mild for the region. Gusts are forecast around 20 mph currently. If our upper level flow becomes more active or the low over Baja California changes track, we could see higher winds increasing concerns for fire weather conditions.

Tuesday, conditions cool in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Highs are forecast in the 60s to low 70s. RH values begin to recover from our persistent southwest/west winds. RH values are currently forecast in the 20s. Winds gusts from 20-30 mph are possible, so fire weather could be a concern if RH values do not recover as much as currently forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 328 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR Conditions are expected to prevail at KGLD. The fog and stratus are forecast to remain east of the airport. KMCK, LIFR conditions are expected to persist for a few more hours as the dense fog seems to remain south of the airport. Conditions are forecast to be rapidly improving 16-17Z. Use caution with any low clouds this morning as icing will be a major concern in the stratus and fog across the area.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for KSZ002>004- 014>016-028-029. CO...Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for COZ253-254. NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for NEZ080-081.