textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chance for showers/storms heading into the weekend.

- 10% risk for severe storms across the area today. Wind gusts up to 65 mph, 1 inch hail, and localized flooding are the primary threats.

- Highs in the 80s and 90s are expected through Saturday, with today being the warmest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Overview: A broad upper level ridge, extending eastward from the Central and Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic Coast and an associated 850 mb ridge over the Central-Southern MS River Valley will persist through Saturday. Meanwhile, a cut-off low along the northern Pacific Coast (CA-OR) today will slowly drift east across the Intermountain West Fri-Fri night and northern Rockies (WY-MT) Sat-Sat night.

Today: A WNW to ESE oriented frontal zone located along/near a line from Holyoke, CO to McCook, NE and Norton, KS (where morning fog and lingering stratus delayed diurnal heating) will lift north toward the I-80 corridor late this afternoon, via 20-30 knot southerly low-level flow on the eastern periphery of a modest lee cyclone in northeast CO. Low-level convergence along the frontal zone may be sufficient for surface based convective development late this afternoon near the KS-NE border, where effective deep layer shear is weak (20-25 kt), instability is on the marginal end of the spectrum (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and storms moving with the mean wind (from the SW at 20 kt) will quickly track north of the frontal zone and become elevated in nature. Deep layer shear becomes more favorable for organized convection north of the front (north of the Goodland CWA). Given that right-mover motion is from the W-WSW at 15 kt, any cyclonic updrafts north of the Goodland CWA are likely to remain north of the Goodland CWA. Expect that convective coverage will be greatest in central Nebraska (i.e. north of the northward advancing front), where moderate to strong low-level warm advection/frontogenesis may lead to widespread elevated convection.

Friday: S to SW flow throughout the troposphere will maintain an atypically moist airmass over the region via a continued influx of (1) low-level moisture from the Gulf and (2) mid-upper level moisture from a sub-tropical jet along the southern Pacific Coast. Expect temperatures similar to today. Without morning stratus (and differential heating), expect a more homogenous airmass over the region. High-res guidance suggests that convection will be diurnal in nature and that development may largely be tied to the typical/ climatological higher terrain in CO (Front Range/Palmer Divide). Low confidence in storm development and coverage in the Goodland CWA.

Saturday: Low confidence in temperatures and convective coverage/evolution. Guidance suggests that an effective cold front.. an inverted surface ridge assoc/w modest high pressure over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest.. will extend southward into northwest KS during the afternoon. Early morning convection in Nebraska could have a significant impact on the timing of the effective front. Expect highs ranging anywhere from the mid- upper 70's (north) to upper 80's and lower 90's (south).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 232 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Synoptically, forecast confidence has increased for Sunday through around Tuesday night. On Sunday morning, an upper level trough is expected to move eastward from the Western CO/WY border and enter the Tri-State Border Area by the evening hours. An associated weak jet streak should accompany this trough. By Monday evening, the trough exits to the east and our flow will mainly remain from the west-southwest until around Tuesday night.

High temperatures for the late weekend into the work week still look to remain in the 70s for the majority of the period. Expect a brief warmup starting on Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the lower 80s. Winds are once again calm to variable. Sunday still looks to have the greatest chance of seeing precipitation for the forecast. Both the LREF and NBM guidance show at least around a 30-40% chance of exceeding 0.1 inches of precip from the early morning and tapering off in the afternoon. Monday through Wednesday, the Probability of Precipitation is around 20-40% each afternoon for the majority of the CWA. Guidance indicates lower values of CAPE and moderate shear, which would lean more towards showers than severe storms.

Starting Wednesday, the forecast becomes more uncertain. Guidance indicates that an upper level ridge should be set up over the Southern US/Gulf Region, alongside troughing over the Western CONUS Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, Wednesday morning is when the uncertainty begins. The GFS has an upper level ridge farther north over the AR/LA/TX border, amplifying directly over the CWA. Both the ECMWF and the Canadian-NH models have the ridge centered over the TX/Gulf border without amplifying overhead, placing it instead over CO and WY. Both the GFS and Canadian-NH models feature either a weak trough or a shortwave moving through the Tri-State Area. One other feature to keep an eye on is, both the GFS and Canadian-NH model show a surface low developing out of Southeastern CO. With that being said, where the ridge and trough/shortwaves set up will either increase or decrease our precipitation chances for Wednesday and Thursday. It will be interesting to see how guidance handles this upper level pattern uncertainty as we get closer.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1047 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The Low Level Jet is leading to LLWS at both KGLD and KMCK through the night at 200-400 feet AGL from the southwest around 35-45 kts. We are expecting a gradual cold front to push out this jet around 10-12Z, ending the LLWS. With the cold front moving in from the northwest and a warm front moving into south central Nebraska, showers are moving across the area. KMCK may see some showers lead to MVFR conditions before 7Z. Behind the cold front today, winds will be fairly light and make the wind favor a northerly direction. Another cold front is expected this evening, likely leading to storms across the region.

Saturday morning may see IFR ceilings return across the region.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.