textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions possible this afternoon from the Tri Border area into northeast Colorado.

- Temperatures warming to near and slightly above normal through early next week, warmest in Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Ridge centered over the Southern Plains will be the dominant upper feature through the period. Dry conditions with temperatures generally near or slightly above normal are expected. Warmest temperatures will be in northeast Colorado today and Sunday where downslope winds near the lee trough will bump temperatures into the 70s. This will also lower afternoon humidity minimums and result in fire weather concerns, from the Tri Border area southwest into Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in northeast Colorado. Afternoon minimums today in those areas will be as low as 8-12% and on Sunday 10-15%. Winds today peak in the morning and then diminish somewhat in the afternoon, but still will be very close to the 25 mph threshold for Red Flag. Confidence is around 50% for reaching critical criteria this afternoon for a few hours between 18-00z. On Sunday, winds appear to be too light with the lee trough axis moving further east. By Monday relative humidity improves with light winds, so not expecting any fire weather concerns.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

The overall synoptic pattern in this forecast period features two different setups. Guidance continues to outline a ridging pattern continuing through Wednesday; exhibiting high-pressure, dry air, and southwesterly flow aloft. A duo of shortwave troughs are expected to propagate through the system, the first of which early Tuesday and the second one Wednesday. Weak low pressure is expected to develop at the surface as well with these features. However, no fronts or precip is anticipated. Thursday through Friday is when ensemble guidance has begun to display a longwave trough developing and moving across the southwestern CONUS. Said trough could become negatively tilted and eject a jet streak through the County Warning Area (CWA). This would likely boost surface winds for Friday. As this deepening system makes its way across the western US, a strong surface low is likely to develop in the northern Rockies, moving eastward into the northern Plains late Thursday. Simultaneously, a cold front likely moves through the CWA late Friday evening.

Model guidance is quite confident on Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) presenting less than 10% initially, which means very low chance of rainfall through Wednesday. Elevated PoP chances first present around the evening timeframe Thursday. 20-35% is forecast right now but this could very well change as models get a better grasp of the synoptic setup. Heading into Friday, Rainfall chances have seen a bit of a boost from recent long-term forecasts, particularity later on in the evening when the frontal passage is underway. 25-35% PoPs early in the day should see an uptick to 30- 50% through the evening hours. Dewpoints should range around the mid to upper 50s so there will likely be adequate moisture to work with. At this time low confidence exists for any of this activity becoming convective, given the projected low CAPE/low bulk shear environment but will have to be monitored as we head into next week.

A warming trend, with respect to high and low temperatures, should persist across the CWA and last through pre-frontal passage Friday. Tuesday high temps consistently low/mid 70s should increase a bit to upper 70s/low 80s on Wednesday with subsidence, via the ridge, dominating the region. Highs are anticipated to peak on Thursday in the low/mid 80s then settle around the upper 70s to low 80s range mid-afternoon before the cold front arrives. Overnight low temps are expected to originally be cooler Tuesday/Wednesday mornings(40s-low 50s) then become milder for Thursday/Friday with consistent 50s across the entire CWA.

Fire weather will be monitored leading up to this four-day period. Relative humidity (RH) values in the 25-45% range are forecasted each day through Friday during peak heating late afternoon. Wednesday will be the driest day as RH could dip into the 20s across a good chunk of the CWA at or west of US-385. It will be quite humid each night as temperatures cool to the dew point. Moving onto surface winds, Thursday and Friday are likely to be the windiest days during this period and could see stronger 25-35 mph winds, gusting 40-45 mph in eastern Colorado. Gusts up to 30 mph are generally possible everywhere else on Thursday and Friday. At this moment in time, no areas of critical fire weather are forecasted. Nonetheless, elevated fire weather is still possible, especially areas west of the Colorado/Kansas state line where lower RH matches up with stronger winds.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 458 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK with clear skies and southwest winds gusting up to 25 kts in the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for NEZ079>081.