textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty north winds will accompany a frontal passage early this morning. Gusts of 40-50 mph are expected, with perhaps a few gusts approaching 60 mph. Blowing dust and minor visibility reductions may also occur. Winds diminish through the morning and afternoon.

- Expect dry conditions and above normal temperatures through the work week, hottest on Thursday and Friday when highs are forecast to reach the upper 80's to mid 90's.

- Marginally critical fire weather conditions possible over portions of the area throughout the work week. At this time, relatively light winds (below ~25 mph) appear to be the main limiting factor.

- A dryline across portions of Western Kansas Thursday afternoon may support multiple hazards, including severe thunderstorms and critical fire weather. Confidence in either scenario is about 5-10%.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

A cold front will move through the area this morning bringing a few hours of gusty north winds. HRRR and NAMnest in fairly good agreement with gusts in the 40-50 mph range between 12-15z, then diminishing through the rest of the day. Would not rule out a few gusts approaching 60 mph, but not expecting it to be widespread. May see some blowing dust and minor visibility reductions as well with the wind. Relative humidity minimums this afternoon will be around 20%, perhaps 15-20% in northeast part of the area around McCook, but with the diminishing winds not expecting to reach critical criteria (15% relative humidity and gusts of 25 mph) for the required 3 hour minimum to warrant a highlight at this time. Highs will be slightly cooler than yesterday in the wake of the front, ranging from the upper 70s in Colorado to the middle 80s in north central Kansas.

Heights rise on Wednesday with an upper ridge nudging into the area from the west. The ridge axis is forecast to be over the area at 00z/Thursday. Precipitation chances will be limited to the immediate Front Range with a weak wave riding up the ridge axis in the afternoon and are not expected to make any progress across the eastern plains. Return flow at the surface around high pressure will result in increasing southerly winds in the afternoon, strongest in Colorado, where gusts of 20-25kts are forecast. Relative humidity minimums will be around 20% once again, so marginal fire weather conditions will be possible, mainly in Colorado where the stronger winds are expected. Wind directions lack a westerly downsloping component so may be difficult for lower dew points/relative humidity to be realized and confidence is lacking for any fire weather highlights for now. Temperatures will warm into the 80s in the entire area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

***Synopsis***

A negatively tilted upper-level shortwave trough is favored to cross the Montana-Wyoming Rockies Thursday morning. This feature would produce a broad surface low pressure across the Northern and Central Great Plains, with potentially a secondary low along the Colorado- Kansas border. A dryline may be allowed to set up across portions of Western Kansas Thursday afternoon from this synoptic setup, though confidence in the Western extent and strength of the dryline are in question. A weak cold front appears favored to come through during the evening or overnight hours as well. Upper-level ridging may move in by Saturday morning, allowing southerly flow to return. At the same time, troughing looks to be developing over the Western United States. How this trough evolves in time and space is uncertain at this time, though it may provide warm and wet conditions while it is to our west, and cooler conditions as it moves in overhead.

***Thursday***

High temperatures on Thursday are forecast in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The presence of a dryline across portions of Western Kansas Thursday may promote several hazards across the forecast area, including thunderstorms (some of which may be severe) and critical fire weather. Again, the exact location of the dryline is uncertain at this time, though will be dependent on the timing of the associated trough coming across the Rockies. Around 20% or less of LREF members place the incoming trough as far west as Northern Utah by 6 am Thursday, whereas the remainder of the solutions have the trough further northeast in Montana. The slower progression would support a dryline further west, with a greater severe weather potential, whereas the faster progression would support an eastern placement, with a greater critical fire weather potential.

While LREF mean and 50th percentile guidance place the 50 degree dew point contour along and east of the US-83 Corridor, higher end 90th percentile scenarios show this contour as far west as the Kansas- Colorado Border, with upper-50 dew point temperatures in portions of Norton and Graham Counties in Kansas. These higher-end scenarios could be associated with around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, and up to 35 kts of 0-6 km bulk wind shear. This could support some strong storms capable of isolated 60 mph gusts, and 1-2 inch hail. Confidence in this scenario occurring is highest in eastern portions of the CWA (Norton and Graham Counties), but is only around 5-10% due to ensemble guidance favoring the faster trough evolution. Still, this is an important development to keep an eye on in the days ahead.

In addition to the severe threat, forecast guidance shows the potential for relative humidities (RH) to drop into the low to mid- teens on the dry side of the dryline. The greatest risk for critical fire weather conditions looks to be across portions of Eastern Colorado, where wind gusts have up to a 75% chance to reach criteria for the hazard according to the NBM. Still, LREF guidance suggests a 25% chance or less for most locations to experience RH values meeting critical fire weather criteria, the exception being across Western portions of Cheyenne County in Colorado, where there is up to a 45% chance. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is highest across portions of Eastern Colorado at this time, around 5- 10%.

***Friday***

Forecast highs are in the lower 80s to lower 90s, a little lower than Thursday's highs due to a cold frontal passage. Northerly to northwesterly winds across the CWA through the early afternoon may promote dry conditions, with RH values in the low to mid teens. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be a concern, though weaker wind gusts may limit the threat for the hazard. Forecast guidance suggests wind gusts may max out around 25 mph during the early to mid afternoon, with up to a 60% chance for wind gusts to meet critical fire weather criteria in Eastern Colorado according to the NBM. However, considering that gusts are favored to weaken throughout the afternoon, and not get much higher than 25 mph throughout the day, any critical fire weather conditions look to be brief in nature. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed on Friday is less than 5%.

***Saturday-Monday***

Forecast certainty begins to decline Saturday regarding how a trough across the Western United States develops. Two solutions seem to be evident from this system: (1) it deepens across the West Coast and remains to the west of the forecast area, and (2) it broadens and moves eastward across the Northern United States, with the trough axis across the Northern High Plains by Sunday morning. For our CWA, solution 1 would be associated with warm, and potentially wet conditions sustained through the end of the forecast period, whereas solution 2 would start out similar to scenario 1, but bring a cold front through the forecast area Sunday or Monday. Precipitation may still be experienced behind the cold front in scenario 2, but would be more light, isolated, and short-lived than solution 1. Currently, about 60% of LREF members are in favor of solution 2, with about 40% favoring solution 1. This is reflected in current forecast guidance, with high temperatures forecast lower on Monday (70s) than Saturday and Sunday (80s and 90s), in addition to reduced chances for precipitation Monday. The development of this trough will be something to keep an eye on as we move closer to the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1113 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. A cold front will shift surface winds to northerly around 12z at both terminals with an hour or two of gusts to 30-40kts immediately after frontal passage, then diminishing the rest of the day.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.