textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures but drier and breezy with elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns.

- Warming back up Thursday through Saturday. - Fire Weather Watch for the entire area Thursday. Elevated to critical conditions possible Friday and Saturday.

- Windy and colder Sunday with a chance for rain and snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A cold front is currently moving through the area as a surface low moves to the southeast out of SW Kansas. Breezy winds occurred with this front but have weakened some across northern portions of the area as the pressure gradient has let up some. Am forecasting another surge of winds to occur around 12Z or so as another trailing front moves through the area. A band of snow has set up across northeast Colorado and is currently forecast to impact mainly Yuma county but could affect the Tri-State border area closer to around 10Z or so. Minimal snow accumulation remains forecast with this activity.

Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to continue through the day as cold air advection is forecast to occur for the majority of the day time hours. High temperatures have trended a little cooler with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Much lower dew points into the single digits are forecast to advect in during the afternoon hours. Do have some concerns that even drier dew points could mix down to the surface as mixing heights are forecast to be around 6000-8000 feet. Elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns are present with the dry conditions and the winds. I did contemplate a Red Flag Warning due to the concern for the drier air to mix to the surface. Opted to hold off due to a slightly cooler trend with guidance for temperatures which would make the event even more marginal. The cooler forecast temperatures also brings some uncertainty as well as to how hot a fire could get. The cooler temperatures are also keeping GFDI in the "High" category which typically acts as an additional nudge. With all of this said, did opt to hold off a product for today due to confidence in widespread 3+ hours of critical conditions only being around 30-40%; confidence in an hour or two of critical is around 60-70%. A surface moving into the area is forecast to end the winds west to east across the area before situating itself across the the CWA during the evening leading to light and variable winds.

Thursday morning the high pressure gets shoved out of the area by a surface trough which is forecast to shift winds to the southwest allowing warming to occur. Depending on how quickly this occurs will be the variable as to how low temperatures fall as southwesterly winds promote steady to rising temperatures. West-southwest winds are forecast to continue through the day leading to another warm day for the forecast area with highs in the 70s to perhaps even some low 80s. The warm temperatures are forecast to lead to critical fire weather conditions across the area as winds increase. The strongest winds are forecast to be along and north of Highway 36 where part of a mountain wave breaks off and increases the 700mb flow. Current forecast has around 45-50 mph winds across Yuma and southwest Nebraska but the 00Z NAM indicates that this could actually set up a bit further south as well into northern Kit Carson, Cheyenne (KS) and possibly northern Sherman county. The NAM also indicates a stronger 700mb jet where wind gusts of 50-55 mph would be a bit more common along with a rogue 60 mph wind gust. Confidence in at least one wind gust of 55+ mph winds is around 35-45% at this time. Fire Weather Watch remains for the area as the potential remains for numerous hours of critical fire weather conditions across the area, but with the favored area for the most rapid spread due to the winds along and north of Interstate 70. Another cold front is forecast to move through the area Thursday night shifting winds to the north, currently not seeing any increase in the winds with the front at this time.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Friday: Modest WNW to NW flow aloft will persist over the region.. on the southern fringe of a 125-150 knot upper level jet over Montana and the Dakotas. With the Tri-State area situated on the subsident, anticyclonic shear side of the aforementioned jet, dry conditions will prevail. Low-level southerly return flow on the eastern periphery of a diurnally renewed lee trough will yet again foster well above average temps. Expect highs ranging from the mid-upper 60's to lower-mid 70's, coolest in Hill City-Norton-McCook and warmest in eastern CO. Light (10-20 knot) southerly low-level flow and relatively shallow mixing (up to ~5,000 ft AGL) will preclude critical fire weather across the majority of the area, except in eastern CO.. where warmer temperatures, deep vertical mixing (up to ~11,000 ft AGL) and 20-30 knot SW to W mid-level flow could support a period of critical fire weather during the afternoon.

Saturday: An amplifying upper level trough approaching from the NW (digging SE across the northern Rockies) will foster the development of a lee cyclone in Colorado.. and anchor it there during the day.. temporarily holding a colder airmass (over the Northern Plains) at bay. Expect further warming assoc/w low- level southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the developing low, with highs in the mid 70's to lower 80's. Forecast soundings via the 00Z 03/11 operational GFS indicate deep vertical mixing (11,000 to 13,000 ft AGL) and 25-30 knot mid- level flow across much of the area.. suggesting a potential for critical fire weather conditions. Forecast soundings also indicate a significant increase in upper level cloud cover (a thick veil of orographically enhanced cirrus) during the afternoon. Dense high overcast, if present, would limit diurnal heating/mixing.. decreasing critical fire weather potential (to some extent). A strong cold frontal passage is expected Sunday morning, as the amplifying upper trough and associated surface low progress east of the region. A short period of severe northerly winds may accompany rapid/pronounced surface pressure rises with the initial surge of cold air.

Sunday: Expect an abrupt transition to below average temps in the wake of the cold frontal passage, with highs ranging from the upper 30's to upper 40's. For reference, average high temperatures this time of year are around 55F.

Monday-Tuesday: A moderating trend will follow, early next week. Expect near average highs on Monday followed by well above average highs (70's) and a potential for critical fire weather, on Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 418 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

At least a period of MVFR conditions is forecast to start this period with MVFR forecast to impact GLD around 13-14Z. There is a 30% chance of additional light rain/snow occurring between 12-14Z at MCK. Guidance also suggests a period of IFR ceilings as well during the time as the rain/snow potential. A return to VFR is forecast to occur mid morning but with breezy to gusty winds occurring through the majority of the day before eventually turning to the southwest this evening and overnight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ252>254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ079>081.