textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot Sunday and Monday nearing the triple digits.

- Heightened risk for heat related stress on Monday.

- Storm chances may return early next week as well as slightly cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

03Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated the Central High Plains remained under the influence of large H5 ridge, with water vapor imagery indicating the Goodland area of responsibility seeing strong subsidence/warming/drying aloft. At the surface, trough was in place along the Colorado front range with light southeasterly flow. Weak stationary front was also noted along the NE/SD border extending ENE into MN.

With ridge dominating the weather pattern through the weekend, primary forecast concern will be on how warm things will get and potential for heat to reach potentially dangerous levels by Monday.

Today-Tonight...Aforementioned upper level ridge will remain the primary meteorological feature across the region, with generally weak easterly flow prevailing across the area. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Friday with temps in the lower to mid 90s expected to be widespread through the afternoon hours. With large scale subsidence likely reinforcing inversion expect that will suppress any diurnally driven convection through the day. That being said, 00z observed soundings from around area indicate a somewhat deeper moisture profile than I would have guessed. This combined with weak, persistent convergence south of I-70 and somewhat weak mixed layer inhibition may allow a stray storm to develop. Limited instability, little if any wind shear and minimal cell movement makes likelihood of precipitation to be very low (less than 5%) but worth keeping an eye on. This small threat will diminish rapidly as the sun sets. Overnight conditions will be very similar to Friday night with relatively light winds and temperatures similar to if not slightly warmer than Friday night.

Sunday-Sunday night...594 dm H5 ridge will shift to the south and east across CO and UT, leading to continued widespread subsidence and hot conditions for the area. With temperatures aloft warming another 1-2C even less instability expected to develop during afternoon with only a few cumulus clouds expected. As was the case as the last several days overnight conditions will be very similar to the past several nights, with an overall persistence forecast expected.

Monday...As far as weather impacts are concerned, Monday looks to be the most likely period in the upcoming days where temperatures may have a significant impact, especially those staying outside or those vulnerable to the heat. H85 temps continue to warm with values ranging from 34C in the west to near 30C in the southeast. GEFS and operational models support temperatures climbing to near 100 degrees across much of the area. While apparent temperature values remain in the 100-104 range do have concerns that heat advisory levels (>= 105) may be reached, primarily as low level airmass remains fairly moist through the weekend with no real change expected. In addition to the traditional heat index am also concerned that temperature recovery will be poor overnight Sunday as the heat builds. Several locations will struggle to fall below 70 degrees overnight and with temperatures climbing over 100 degrees this may bring an extended period of stress on those sensitive to the heat. With fair season ramping up, be prepared to mitigate the heat for both people and livestock.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Model continue to be in good agreement with the upper air pattern for this part of the forecast. The upper level ridge continues to essentially center over the forecast area Sunday and Monday. Highs look to be warmest on Monday, reaching 100F. Ensemble data shows high probability for highs to be over 100 over the north and east half of the forecast area. As such, highs may rise a couple more degrees for Monday over the coming days. Current forecast has heat index values of 100F over most of the forecast area, with spots of 102F heat index east of Highway 23.

A cold front will move through Monday night as the ridge shifts south due to an upper level short wave trough pushing the trough southward. This will start the chances for rain for the week. The western part of the forecast area continues to have the highest chances for rainfall. The best chance for rainfall for the entire forecast area continues to be Wednesday night. However, chances for rainfall continue through the rest of the week as upper level short wave troughs round the ridge and move over the forecast area. The main question is how far east the storms will move before weakening. How far east the storms are able to move will depend upon how far east the instability will be.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions with light and variable winds becoming east south easterly late tomorrow morning. Diurnally driven cumulus will develop between 16 and 23Z bringing a few clouds around 6000 feet.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.