textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions are forecast with high temperatures in the 80s.

- Could see patchy fog develop along and south of i-70/Hwy 24 Thursday morning. - Increased fire danger is forecast Friday and Saturday, especially in for counties along the Colorado border. Relative humidity may drop into the teens with gusts around 30 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 312 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Not much change in the overall synoptic pattern today. A series of lows over the greater Hudson Bay region and eastern Canadian Provinces have kept flow over the north-central CONUS in northerly flow aloft with broad ridging over the western US. A few shortwave troughs have moved through this northwesterly flow this week, but conditions have been dry enough that the fronts have not done much over the central High Plains besides cool temperatures slightly and bring some higher cloud cover. However, a trough digging southwards across British Colombia into the PacNW will finally lead to transition back to southwesterly flow aloft by this weekend.

At the surface, easterly to northeasterly winds have allowed for cooler afternoon temperatures today with most locations in the Tri- State area in the upper 70s to mid 80s early this afternoon. Should see temperatures max out in the mid to upper 80s by late afternoon before cooling back into 50s tonight. More easterly winds, generally along and south of I-70/Hwy 24, have allowed for a corridor of higher dewpoints in the 50s this afternoon. With temperatures dropping into the 50s overnight, this area may see some patchy fog develop by Thursday morning. Any fog will quickly mix out by mid to late morning.

By Friday, the surface low associated with the PacNW trough will deepen the surface trough over the High Plains with gradient tightening over the Central Plains. This will lead to increasing southerly winds over the forecast area. The strongest winds will be over eastern Colorado where gusts of 30 mph will be common. In addition, steep low and mid-level lapse rates will allow for efficient mixing in the lower layers...resulting in dewpoints dropping into the 30s and relative humidity dropping into the teens over eastern Colorado. These conditions will elevate fire weather concerns over the area by Friday afternoon with elevated conditions expected again Saturday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Friday and Saturday, the area is forecast to be stuck in the middle of multiple features with an upper trough over the Western United States and Northern Plains, while a hurricane pushes into the Ohio River Valley. In spite of all these features in the United States, this should leave the area in a relatively stagnant pattern with a surface low hanging around the High and Northern Plains that extends into the area. This should keep southerly low level flow and dry air place over the area, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s. The dry air and warm temperatures are forecast to have relatively humidity lower into the teens and 20s during the afternoon, with the lowest values for counties along the Colorado border. With the pressure gradient over the area keeping winds around 15-20 mph and gusts around 30 mph, there is increasing concern for at least a few hours of critical fire weather conditions. But with ensemble spread charts showing most of the features could either shift or become more broad, don't have the confidence to issue any products yet as conditions could still change a bit. One of the things I am more confident in is the lack of precipitation. While we have features near/over the area, the air will likely be too dry for anything to form, keeping our precip chances under 5%.

Sunday and early next week remain a mess with two northern upper troughs possible along the the upper low over the Western United States potentially moving near the area. For now, it is likely that we will have westerly/southwesterly flow with all these features that should bring some mid to high level moisture into the area. The increased cloud cover and influence of the upper troughs trying to push the surface low east and allow for cold air advection should lead to cooler temperatures for that start of the week. For now, the forecast is that temperatures lower each day by about 5 degrees with highs forecast to be in the mid 60s be mid-week. With the uncertainty in how strong each feature will be and when it will advance, some ensemble solutions suggest much colder air would be possible. Even so, the chance for freezing temperatures is only around 5-10%. This has also severely lower the snow chances hinted at by prior runs in guidance. What hasn't lowered is the chance for precipitation with the influx of mid and upper level moisture. While unlikely to be widespread or lead to decent accumulations due to dry near surface air, Mon-Wed has a 30-50% chance of rain each day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected for the prevailing TAF period. Winds will generally be out of the east- northeast this afternoon at 7-11 kt, then decreasing to 7 kt or less and becoming more south-southeast by Thu morning (12Z).

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.