textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief break in the precipitation with a few showers through the afternoon and evening. More widespread precipitation is expected to begin Wednesday morning.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area starting tonight and continuing through the day on Thursday. While rainfall totals are forecast to generally be around 1-3" during that time, there is the possibility for some parts of the area to see 3-5" of rain.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Wind gusts to 60 mph, hail around an inch, and maybe a few tornadoes are possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 0300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Current observations have an upper low/trough around Southern Nevada with southwest flow ahead of it over the Tri-State area. The remnants of Hurricane Polo are also beginning to push northeast along the trough, with the location currently in NW Mexico. The continued southwest flow has kept the area cloudy and temperatures around the upper 60s and lower 70s. With a broad area of low pressure over the area, winds have been light and will likely remain that way through the night. With the forcing weakening across the area, the shower coverage and intensity have diminished quite a bit. The chances for showers will now be around 10-25% through much of the evening, mainly for isolated showers.

Later tonight around 3-6am MT, the surface low is forecast to near the area as it continues to move north through the Panhandles region. This will slowly increase precipitation chances as the outer bands of the low start moving into the area. Before the precipitation and during it, fog is possible as we will likely remain fairly saturated. The low level cloud cover should keep us insulated enough to avoid dense fog. Through the rest of the morning, the showers and maybe a few storms should spread over the rest of the area as the low inches closer. That being said, locales along Highway 34 may not see much unless the low makes in far enough north. Conversely, heavy rain is likely south of I-70, where more concentrated bands are possible. The persistent cloud cover and precipitation should keep temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. Otherwise, expect the winds to increase as the low gets closer and increases the pressure gradient. Speeds will likely near 20 mph with gusts around 35-40 mph.

Wednesday afternoon gets less certain as guidance is split on how far north the low advances. The current forecast is for the low to stay more south around the KS/OK border, which would keep the rain showers over the area. The encroaching dry air with the dry slot would then begin to lower the coverage as the afternoon and evening go on. By the overnight hours, there may be one final batch of rain along the edge of the dry slot. In this case, most of the showers and storms would be sub-severe and flooding would be the only concern. The other possible scenario is that the low tracks further north before the dry slot intrudes. In this case, the warm front would over the area around I-70. While low instability and weak lapse rates would keep most storms tame, we would have an increased chance for severe weather. The main threats would be wind gusts to 60 mph, hail around an inch, and a few tornadoes. While still not very high, the tornado threat would be better than recent events due to very low LCLs and plenty of low level and effective shear. Overall this has a 35% chance of occurrence and would likely occur around 3-8pm MT.

Late Wednesday and Thursday will generally see the rain event come to the end as the system shifts east. The question is how fast as a slower system gives more rain compared to a faster system. For now, the forecast is that a final cluster of storms forms along I-70 near the KS/CO border and pushes east/southeast with the system, giving the southern half of the area one last batch of rain. This would likely clear out during the early afternoon hours with temperatures in the 60s from the lingering cloud cover. should the system be faster, the precip would be more apt to end in the morning with highs pushing 70.

In regards to the precipitation amounts and the Flood Watch, the precipitation totals are likely to be 1-3 inches south of Highway 36. For those along and north, the recent trend has put this area in the gradient and may lead to some areas receiving less than a quarter of an inch. Higher amounts in smaller areas are possible should we receive more storms than stratiform rain. Strong storms and/or training showers/storms could allow for higher amounts still approaching 6 inches. But this looks to be about a 5-10% occurrence with the more southerly shift lowering the overall instability.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Synoptically, as the previous day's system moves out of the County Warning Area (CWA), our upper level flow will largely remain from the west to northwest though Tuesday. During this period, the jet stream remains to the north near the US/Canada border throughout the weekend. Over the Four Corner region, a weak upper level ridge is likely to set up starting Friday morning and lingering through late next week. There is some uncertainty in the upper level pattern for Tuesday. Guidance currently indicated either a weak shortwave or an upper level trough moving through the area. Currently, the Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) is currently forecast at 5-10%, however the shortwave could increase precipitation chances depending on its strength.

Overall, temperatures for the weekend into early next week look to stay under 80 degrees until around Tuesday. Friday looks to be the coolest day, with highs in the 60s. By Monday and Tuesday, highs creep back into the low to mid 80s for the majority of the Tri-State area. Precipitation chances for the weekend and early work week remain low each day, with PoPs currently around 5-10%. Both the NBM and LREF ensemble means show less than 500 J/kg of CAPE daily. However, as noted previously, the passing shortwave on Tuesday could bring a slight bump in PoPs.

Friday through Sunday afternoon, sustained winds and gusts are forecast to remain mostly below 25 mph. Starting Sunday afternoon/evening winds should begin to transition to come from the south for the remainder of the long term period. Monday is currently forecast to be the windiest day of the period as 850 mb jet develops. While guidance disagrees on the exact location of area of the highest gusts, which could be in the range of 30-45 mph. Currently the NBM favors the Colorado counties as well as areas north of I-70 and west of HWY 83 for the highest gusts. Whereas the LREF favors the higher gusts to be over the majority of the CWA. Currently Fire Weather concerns remain fairly low due to the Relative Humidity values staying above 30% and soil moisture likely remaining fairly saturated from the recent precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 551 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

KGLD: Temporary VFR conditions are in place at KGLD, as ceilings have lifted a bit. However, IFR ceilings are expected to develop by about 08Z as dewpoint depressions decrease. Fog may become an issue as well, however cloud cover is forecast to prevent radiational cooling for fog to develop as these lower ceilings set in. Even so, showers pushing in from the south will have the potential to lower ceilings to LIFR conditions along with reduced visibilities. Northeasterly winds are also expected to increase as a surface low encroaches on the region from the south.

KMCK: Ceilings have oscillated between MVFR and VFR over the past few hours at KMCK as brief clearings in the lower levels have occurred. This may continue over the next hour or two, but IFR ceilings are expected to be in place by 04Z. LIFR ceilings may be allowed to develop after 06Z as dewpoint depressions lower. Visibilities are not expected to drop significantly early on, but showers from the south will lower visibilities down to around a mile, with a chance of near VLIFR ceilings after 13Z. Winds will pick up during the afternoon out of the northeast, though showers are expected to remain, keeping IFR conditions in place.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. CO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for COZ090>092. NE...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NEZ079>081.