textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temps today, cooling trend on Sat-Sun.

- 10-15% chance for a severe storm capable of producing localized wind gusts up to 65 mph in eastern CO and nearby KS and NE border counties between 4-10 PM MDT today.

- 20% chance for a few severe storms Saturday aft-eve, mainly in eastern CO and nearby KS-NE border counties between 5-11 PM MDT. 65-75 mph wind gusts are the main threat. Localized flash flooding and an instance of quarter to golf ball size hail also possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Overview: SW flow aloft over the Tri-State Area will modestly strengthen as a cut-off low in Idaho (today) slowly drifts east toward the northern Rockies (tonight-Sat). Meanwhile, in the lower levels, southerly flow on the western periphery of an 850 mb ridge over the Central-Southern MS River Valley will maintain low-level moisture advection from the Gulf into the Southern and Central Plains.

Today-Tonight: Yesterday's lee cyclone in CO has since weakened and shifted eastward over northwest KS. Consequently, breezy to strong southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the low has shifted eastward into central KS. At 19Z, KGLD velocity data indicated light (5-10 knot) and variable winds across the majority of the Goodland CWA, with breezy (15-25 knot) southerly low-level flow confined to Wichita, Gove and Graham counties.. south and east of a surface trough extending northeastward from Cheyenne Wells to Colby and Oberlin (easily discernible on KGLD 0.5 deg reflectivity data). A moist airmass characterized by well above average (1.20-1.40") precipitable water values and modest (6.5-7.0 C/km) mid-level lapse rates persists over the area. High-res guidance continues to suggest that scattered diurnal convection developing on the Palmer Divide will progress northeastward over portions of northwest KS and southwest NE late this afternoon and evening. Moisture pooling on the N and NW periphery of the low-level convergence zone has locally enhanced diurnal destabilization over Yuma/Kit Carson counties in CO and Cheyenne/Sherman counties in KS, where 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE was analyzed at 20Z. While weak low and mid-level flow aren't especially favorable for severe weather, effective deep layer shear ~25-35 knots could potentially support supercellular organization (transient, at least). With this in mind, an isolated severe storm is possible, mainly on the N and NW periphery of the convergence zone in Yuma, Kit Carson, Sherman, Cheyenne and Dundy counties ~4-10 pm MDT. Localized wind gusts up to 65 mph appear to be the primary threat. Localized nuisance flooding and a few instances of sub-severe (dime to nickel) hail are also possible.

Expected Storm Motion Today:

Left-Mover: from 180 deg @ 20 KT Mean Wind: from 230 deg @ 15-20 KT Right-Mover: from 270 deg @ 20 KT

Sat-Sat night: Low confidence in high temperatures and convective coverage/evolution. Guidance suggests that an effective cold front.. an inverted surface ridge assoc/w modest high pressure over southern Canada and North Dakota.. will extend southward into portions of the Central Plains in this period, though.. overnight and early morning convection in South Dakota and Nebraska may have a significant impact on both the timing and location of the effective front. Strengthening SW flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the upper level low progressing slowly east from Idaho to western Wyoming may lead to more widespread diurnal convective development along the CO Front Range and greater downstream coverage in the Goodland CWA during the late afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 229 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Starting Sunday, our region is finally getting relief from the stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s and 70s for Sunday. We are forecast to be in a southwest upper-level flow with an incoming trough west of the Rocky Mountains. This trough will traverse east across the county warning area (CWA) bringing chances for precipitation beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing overnight into Monday. The entire CWA has chances for precipitation, but the western portion has the greatest with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 60-75%. Storms are forecast to enter the area from the west and traverse east across the CWA. The environment is marginally severe in terms of CAPE, lapse rates and shear, so hazard wise we are likely looking at rain showers. A stronger storm could latch onto the instability in environment and produce strong winds around 60 mph and hail around 1 inch. Strong winds gusts are also possible with any short-lived or collapsing storms that are pop up and dissipate quickly. Weak showers will likely persist into early Monday morning.

Monday through the end of the week is looking fairly consistent forecast wise. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s with afternoon PoPs around 30-50% due to embedded shortwave and jet support. Starting Monday, we transition to more of a zonal upper- level pattern with a jet streak overhead. Early Wednesday, we are forecast to transition to a weak ridging pattern with a jet streak remaining overhead. The jet streak overhead the CWA will cause windy conditions Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with gusts from 30-40 mph possible for the western CWA. Increased jet support is expected to remain over the area through at least Thursday, but models diverge on when the jet streak will move on. This will ultimately affect precipitation chances for the CWA.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 330 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

GLD: Aside from gusty and erratic winds in vicinity of any showers and storms, light/variable winds will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Scattered showers/storms forecast to develop in CO this afternoon may track ENE across portions of northwest KS during the late afternoon and evening. Locations north of Goodland are more likely (relatively speaking) to be affected by storms. Medium confidence in thunderstorm timing (~23-05Z), low confidence in thunderstorm coverage. Light winds, a moist airmass and a clearing trend could lead to a period of IFR-LIFR fog or stratus a few hours on either side of sunrise. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail during the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: Aside from gusty and erratic winds in vicinity of any showers and storms, light/variable winds will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Scattered showers/storms forecast to develop in CO this afternoon may track ENE across portions of northwest KS and southwest NE late this afternoon and evening. Medium confidence in thunderstorm timing (~01-07Z), low confidence in thunderstorm coverage. Light winds, a moist airmass and a clearing trend could lead to a period of IFR-LIFR fog or stratus a few hours on either side of sunrise. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail during the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.