textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Modest cold front early Thursday morning may bring wind gusts around 45 mph. Light snow may occur as well but with amounts generally an inch or less.

- 40% chance of a brief period of visibilities falling to one half mile or less due to breezy conditions and falling snow across northern portions of Yuma, Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties during the morning commute.

- A potential winter system may impact the area from Friday morning until Saturday morning. Light snowfall accumulations are expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 203 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

A low pressure system is located directly over the CWA. The main focus for the next few hours will be the potential for strong wind gusts as a modest cold front moves across the area and snow potential as well favoring the north. Starting with the wind, stout pressures has consistently been seen on all guidance with 1 hr pressure rises ranging from 5-7mb and 3 hr pressure rise from 9- 11mb. This looks to favor a corridor from roughly Yuma down through Russell Springs starting roughly around 09Z and continuing through 15Z or so. The big question is how strong will the wind gusts be. Current forecast has gusts around 50 mph but the 00Z HREF Max wind gusts has splotchy gusts of 60 mph favoring Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties. Forecast soundings only suggest 40 knot winds in the 850- 800mb which is where mixing should primarily occur given the early morning hours and nocturnal inversion in place; confidence in 60+ mph wind gusts is around 5-10% of occurring. Cold air advection will help support the 40 knot winds mix down leading to a period of high sustained winds around 30 knots. The biggest issue at hand still is if snow will accompany the front and the wind and if so what the snow rate will be. If snow can accompany the front then a period of blowing snow or even snow squall-espue conditions could occur across southern Yuma, Kit Carson and perhaps spreading into Sherman and Wallace county. 06Z RAP cross sections show around -8 microbars of lift around 775mb but dry shallow air closer to the surface. The strongest omega with the front at least according to the 06Z RAP occurs in the -8 to -10C range at 11Z which is flirting roughly with the dendritic growth zone. This could be why CAM outputs may not be showing any snow moving with the front. With it so close, I'm not fully trusting CAM output that a band of snow with the front will not occur but seeing the reasoning as to why in cross sections will keep my confidence down around 20-30% in this occurring. If it does occur then brief whiteout conditions and wind gusts of 50-55 mph may occur. A classic low confidence but high impact scenario is in play through around 14-15Z.

Confidence is higher however in light snow occur behind the front through the day for locations generally along and north of Highway. Saturation and lessening dew point depressions along with lowering of the dendritic growth zone will help the snow fall occur along with some fairly stout 700mb and 500mb vort maxes providing additional lift through 18Z or so. Snow is forecast to fully move out of northern portions of the area between 21 and 00z as final but weaker lobe of vorticity moves through. As for amounts generally 0.5 to 1 inch of snow is forecast mainly along and north of Highway 34 from Yuma to Bartley. GEFS ensemble members has shifted the higher totals across central Nebraska a little further south from last night resulting in the potential for extreme northern portions of Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow to have 10-20% chance of seeing around 3 inches of snowfall. It is worth noting that this is the only ensemble that is showing this as the ECWMF, ECMWF AI and HREF do not show this. Meteorgram plumes across all other various guidance all suggests generally around 0.5-1.5 inches at KMCK and KIML which does further increase my confidence that at least widespread advisory level potential is low. Do have some concerns for blowing snow as well across Highway 34 as well during the morning commute. Using the Aberdeen Blowing Snow model based on current forecast there is a 30-40% chance of visibility reductions as snow is falling as snow ratios fall to around 18-20:1 leading to more of a drier snow. Current forecast has around 17-21 knot sustained winds which assuming a 0.5 inch per hour snow rate would support up to 50% chance of visibilities around one half mile or less. Some recent guidance is trying to suggest pockets of that magnitude from around 12-14Z this morning. With this do have some concerns for some impacts to the morning commute and rural bus routes as well. Confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is not high enough to warrant a Advisory for this potential impact at this time due to low confidence in the coverage of the snow rates and the duration.

Much colder temperatures than what has been occurring is forecast to occur as cold air advection continues to filter into the area. But at least it will fill more like February with highs in the low 40s across the south to struggling to get to freezing across the north. Skies are forecast to clear and winds are forecast to go light overnight as a surface high pushes in from the north. This is forecast to lead to the potential for radiational cooling. The big question is how long will these conditions last we start to advect in some mid level moisture from our next system that will impact us Friday. If radiational cooling is stronger or lasts longer then low temperatures may fall into the single digits across northern and eastern portions of the area.

A mid level trough is forecast to move into the area from the west during the day Friday as winds become southeasterly during the day. A weak warm front across western portions of the area is forecast to be the zone where some precipitation should form during the early afternoon hours. A tightening pressure gradient along the leading edge of the front is forecast to lead to some breezy winds across western portion of the area with gusts up to 30 mph. There does remain some discrepancies on how far north it does go before precipitation starts. Current forecast has an all snow solution but if the front does push a little further north then a rain/snow mix may be more realistic. Continue to lean towards a light snow as omega does not appear to be overly strong at this time with a bit more widespread amounts of 1-2 inches being the current expectations. This system does look to be fairly quick moving with precipitation ending west to east Friday night.

Saturday, currently appears to be a bit more tranquil as ridging returns to over the Rockies with northwesterly flow impacting the region. Am seeing a weak embedded shortwave which could possibly be a target of opportunity for some light precipitation chances across the northeast part of the forecast area but confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. Unfortunately could see some approaching elevated fire weather conditions across eastern Colorado as a 25 knot 850mb jet within the northwest flow moves through during the afternoon. Highs for the day are currently forecast to be in the 40s across the area at this time but may depend on if the ridge can broaden some which could increase temperatures but lower the wind threat.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 115 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

Long range guidance continues to indicate that a pronounced upper level ridge will prevail over the Rockies and High Plains late this weekend into early next week.. and that a transition to a speedy/energetic zonal (westerly) flow pattern will follow, by mid-week. Expect dry conditions and a warming trend, with highs rising from the 40's (Sun) and 50's (Mon) to lower 70's (Tue).. when critical fire weather conditions are possible. Long range guidance continues to indicate a cooling trend in the wake of a modest cold frontal passage by mid-week. Recent (00Z 02/19) operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the aforementioned cold frontal passage will occur late Tue night or Wed morning, ~12-18 hours later than yesterday's (00Z 02/18) guidance. At this range, further details / forecast specifics cannot be ascertained with confidence.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1025 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Cold front moving through the area has already impacted MCK shifting winds to the north-northeast, this is forecast to impact GLD between 10Z and 12Z. Winds are forecast to increase with and behind the front gusting 30-40 knots. Some snow is possible as well which may result in some IFR or lower ceilings and visibilities for each terminal. Snow may linger at MCK through the day leading to reduced ceiling less than 009'.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.