textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning again issued for the entire Tri-State Area today due to low relative humidity and breezy conditions.

- Northerly wind gusts at or above 60 mph are forecast in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage early Sunday morning. Winds may continue to be strong through the day Sunday, with the potential for blowing dust and a small potential for blowing snow.

- Next week, expect dry conditions and a day-to-day warming trend culminating in near-record to record high temperatures for the month of March by the end of the work-week (Thu-Fri).

- Fire Weather concerns over East Central Colorado Tuesday through Saturday due to breezy winds with relative humidity values around 15%.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A series of shortwave disturbances ahead of the main trough digging into the Central U.S. in the upper levels will work to strengthen a lee surface trough as the associated low matures over the Northern Plains. As of 12:30 PM MT, we are waiting for winds to start picking up a bit more, but the relative humidity values are also dropping into the mid teens and lower. Critical fire weather conditions are expected through 8 PM MDT/9 PM CDT, which is when the Red Flag Warning will expire. Winds will be out of the southwest primarily with locales west of the Colorado border becoming more westerly during the early evening hours with gusts to 40 mph.

Beginning around midnight (if not a little sooner) a strong cold front is expected to sweep across the area from out of the northwest. This will bring high winds across the area from out of the northwest with sustained speeds of 35-45 mph and gusts to 70 mph possible through the early evening hours Sunday. The strongest winds are expected to be along/immediately behind the front and then during the late morning to early afternoon. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the entire area from 12 AM to 8 PM MDT/1 AM to 9 PM CDT. With the winds, there is also concern for blowing dust across the area despite the chance for moisture. As the initial surge of wind moves in, mixing heights are currently favoring to be below 2,000 m leading to better concentrations of dust than we have with our most recent events. The concern for a wall of dust remains as the front moves through as suggested by the prior discussion. Otherwise, there is moderate to high confidence that bare fields and the burn scars will produce blowing dust with visibility reductions below 1 mile possible, especially near the dust source.

Wrap-around moisture with the low over the Northern Plains will move over the area bringing a chance (20-60%)for light rain that could transition to snow as temperatures fall. Currently not expecting much for accumulation, but the winds could create some visibility concerns for falling snow once the transition to a dry powdery snow happens. Best chances for any snow accumulation currently are over East-Central Colorado. Highs on Sunday have trended cooler, so blended in the 25th percentile NBM guidance once again to have our highs in the mid 30s to upper 30s. Overnight lows are currently expected to fall into the lower teens to upper single digits, with potential to be even colder based on trends. Wind chills will be a concern for those with cold-sensitve plants and animals as they are currently expected to fall into the single digits above and below zero.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A long wave ridge over the Great Basin will dominate the weather pattern for the majority of next week. Looking at probabilities for highs during the latter half of the week, the current forecast looks well on track. Would not be surprised if highs end up being three or so degrees warmer than forecast given the ridge nearby and the northwesterly surface winds.

The main concern for next week will be fire weather. Relative humidity values will fall to around 15% for the west half of the forecast area. In addition winds will be gusting 20-40 MPH over East Central CO, with the strongest winds on Tuesday. Wednesday onward the wind gusts will up to 30 MPH for East Central CO.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions are currently forecast for the majority of this TAF period. Winds are expected to pick up over the next few hours with gusts of 25-30 kts possible through 00Z this evening. Focus remains on a strong cold front overnight shifting winds to the north with strong to damaging wind gusts. Guidance has been fairly consistent with the front arriving over KGLD and KMCK between 05-07Z with winds becoming northwesterly and increasing quickly to 25-35 kts sustained with gusts to 55 kts. Blowing dust may accompany the front but confidence in direct impacts to either terminal isn't high enough to include in the TAF at this time for flight categorical impacts. Rain and light snow are also possible mainly between 09-14Z Sunday morning. Can't rule out some smoke reducing visibilities Sunday morning for MCK from fires in western Nebraska. Again confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Another Red Flag Warning today as this stretch of warm, dry and breezy conditions continues. The strongest winds for the day are forecast to be along mainly along and west of Highway 27 which is the most likely area for wind gusts up to 40 mph. Further to the east winds are a bit more marginal due to where a surface trough stalls out at. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are forecast across this area. Have some concern that humidity will fall lower than what is currently forecast current temperature forecast is on the lower end of guidance due to cloud cover concerns. If warmer temperatures can develop then a large area of single digit humidity values can be expected and may fall as low as 5% across eastern Colorado. This combined with the warm temperatures and the winds does support extreme GFDI forecast across eastern Colorado.

Tonight a potent cold front is forecast to move through the area with a surge of wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Should a fire be ongoing this will create a dangerous situation not only due to the wind shift but also with the surge of stronger winds. These winds are forecast to continue through the day Sunday as well with potentially a longer lived period of sustained winds of 35-45 mph across the area. The cooler temperatures in wake of the cold front helps keep GFDI values in the Very High category precluding the need currently for an extension to the current Red Flag Warning or a separate one for Sunday; there could be some wetting rain/snow with the front as well which further decreases the need for another Red Flag Warning for Sunday.

Should a fire still be ongoing on Sunday be aware that high temperatures are forecast to be near or even below freezing for the day which would pose problems for any response to a fire with the potential for hoses to freeze.

Fire weather concerns may continue through the next week as well with a strong signal for well above normal temperatures especially by the end of the week. Regional ERC forecasts from NIFC show ERC's returning into the 90th percentile. At this time there is no strong signal for a windy day but with deep mixing most likely due to the warmer temperatures daily wind gusts at least in the 20-25 mph range may be possible.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. High Wind Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041- 042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081. High Wind Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.