textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warming trend expected throughout the week, fire weather conditions increase throughout the week.

- Breezy conditions expected and patchy blowing dust possible Tuesday midday and afternoon.

- Very warm to even hot temperatures possible late week into the early weekend. Daily record highs and even monthly record highs may be possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1146 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Early this morning, the remainder of the low pressure system that brought high winds to the area yesterday will be exiting to the east. Northerly CAA will persist this morning, and occasional gusts around 10 kts are expected around sunrise as temperatures fall into the 7-12 degree range. This will lead to wind chills ranging from -10 to 0.

Thankfully, this afternoon, a ridge will be building in from the south, allowing some southerly advection. There won't be a lot of warming from this wind shift, but it will keep temperatures from dropping any further. Highs today are forecast to climb into the 40s, with the southwestern CWA warming up the most.

This ridge will persist until tomorrow midday, allowing southerly flow to continue until then. This will work to bring some warmer temperatures into the CWA. Overnight tonight, lows look to largely remain in the 20s with pockets cooling into the upper teens. Tomorrow, is forecast to warm into the 70s ahead of our next cold front.

This cold front poses a risk for patchy blowing dust. Winds with and behind the cold front are forecast to gust around 30 kts from the northwest. HREF probabilities for greater than 30 MPH are above 50% for locations along and north of I-70, however are only greater than 35% for 35 MPH gusts north of U.S. 34. Lapse rates from GFS, NAM, RAP, and SREF all show 0-2 km lapse rates are high, supporting lofting. All but the RAP also show a capping layer at 2-2.5 km, increasing confidence in blowing dust reducing visibilities. As it stands, there is a 10% chance of less than 1 mile visibility in blowing dust along and north of I-70, increasing to 25% along and north of U.S. 34. Most likely timing for blowing dust will be between 18-0Z. If dust occurs, plumes are most likely, with a less than 2% chance of a haboob.

On the plus side, dew points are expected to rebound and keep minimum RH values in the upper teens to low 20s. This will limit the fire weather threat for Tuesday afternoon.

Overnight Tuesday, even though a cold front will have moved through, with the increased dew points, temperatures are forecast to remain in the 30s. No notable precipitation is expected in the short- term.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A long wave ridge over the Great Basin will dominate the weather pattern for the majority of next week. All guidance indicates a large high pressure system around 591-593dam which will favor very warm to hot temperatures for the entire area. If this signal continues then daily record highs and even monthly record highs could be in jeopardy across the area especially late week. Given the strength of the surface high would not surprised if high temperatures especially on Friday reach the 90s. With an early season heat wave looking more likely those with heat sensitivity and even agricultural and livestock interests may want to start taking precautions. The positive but also negative side of the heat is that it will be a dry heat with humidity in the single digits so heat indices will not be a concern. The negative side is that fire weather will still continue to be a concern. Currently no precipitation is forecast but since this is a summertime pattern and the region will be on the lee side of the ridge there could be the potential for some embedded waves that long range guidance is not picking up on yet.

For the fire weather concerns. Relative humidity values will fall to around 15% or less across most if not all of the area from mid week into the the start of the weekend. With this summertime pattern in place mixing should be able to become fairly deep so would not be surprised to see daily wind gusts of 20-25 mph each day during the warmest days. Any better coverage of critical fire weather concerns would be tied to timing and locations of the 850 and 700mb jets. Currently it appears that Wednesday and Friday would have the relative better potential for this to occur.

Guidance is also agreeing on another cold front moving through the area next weekend. The exact day and timing is still up in the air but GFS and ECMWF suggest that gusty to strong winds could be possible again as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 956 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the period. KMCK will see gusts in the 20-30 kts range become less frequent between 6-9Z. KGLD may see occasional gusts around 20 kts 6-7Z and during the afternoon hours today. Otherwise, good flying conditions are forecast!

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.