textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms may continue through the night and early Wednesday morning. Very low chance of an isolated instance or two of nuisance flooding.

- Fog and patchy dense fog is forecast to develop across portions of the area this morning.

- Strong to possibly severe storms are forecast to move into eastern Colorado again this evening. A wind gust or two up to 60 mph is again possible along with torrential rain with any storm. Coverage is forecast to be lesser than the previous days.

- A daily potential for late afternoon and evening storms, potentially severe, may continue through the rest of the work week. Thursday is currently the favored day for severe weather.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1233 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Mid level shortwaves are moving across the area and leading to showers and storms. Easterly upslope flow is expected to continue to keep the storms moving across the area assuming outflow doesn't eject out of them. I do have some concern for additional redevelopment overnight with isentropic ascent in the 315 level across NW Kansas. If this does occur then some at least nuisance level flooding threat could develop. Forecast soundings show a very saturated profile with 2-2.4 PWATS. Corfidi vectors again show around 15-30 knots which is a bit quicker than what I would like to see when it comes to flooding potential and is the only thing keeping me from having a greater concern for flooding. With how moist soundings are would not be surprised if somewhere has a quick 2-4+ inches of rainfall east of Highway 27. Similar to last night should rainfall wane for a period of time then fog and stratus would become a concern. Should the redevelopment not occur then fog and stratus would again be a concern similar to Monday night and Tuesday morning as current RAP analysis shows a surface high getting wedged into the area which would lead to light and variable winds. Current thinking is that fog would be in the 2-6sm range but some locally dense fog could again be on the table with surface to 1 km mixing ratios around 6.

For the rest of the day, should the fog and stratus occur then guidance suggests that it should be fully dissipated around 15Z. Our humid air mass is forecast to remain in place along with highs in the 90s across the area. The RAP is the outlier which keeps thick stratus across the majority of the day which would result in high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Not completely buying this scenario at this time but is interesting and may depend on what occurs with convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Overall a fairly similar setup to what occurred on Tuesday. The difference is that a weak surface trough is forecast to move into the area during the afternoon and increase winds to around 15-20 mph sustained. During the afternoon and into the evening another shortwave is forecast to move off of the Rockies and onto the Plains. This is forecast to lead to strong to perhaps even a severe storm or two across eastern Colorado with damaging winds again the primary hazards and heavy to torrential rainfall. Do have some concerns of the coverage of storms however as seen on 00Z REFS paintball as the RRFS and a few other guidance has the storms sending out outflow and weakening them halfway across the Colorado counties. HREF and some other guidance has them reaching the KS Highway 27 corridor before doing the same. The severe threat does not look quite as favorable but some wind gusts up to 60 mph may be possible. Should the storms occur will again have to watch for torrential rainfall which may lead to more nuisance flooding across eastern Colorado. 310 and 315K Isentropic analysis does suggests that there could be some potential for redevelopment as well overnight again but appears to be dependent on how the day plays out so will again be something to keep an eye on. Similar to the previous nights if the storms do not form then another strong signal for fog and and stratus is seen. There may be potential for a bit more widespread dense fog potential due to better coverage of surface to 1km mixing ratio differences across the CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

***Thursday***

GEFS and EC 500-mb height ensembles still show a broad high/ridge across much of the United States Thursday morning. At the same time, a shortwave trough traveling around the ridge anticyclonically is forecast to be overhead. A surface low at the leading edge of the shortwave will allow a cold front to traverse the Great Plains throughout the day. Showers and thunderstorms are possible at the leading edge of the cold front, though are currently not expected to be severe. LREF guidance suggests only a 25% chance or less that sfc-500mb wind shear will exceed 30 kts, with the highest chances in Southwest Nebraska and along US-283 in Kansas. GFS and EC model soundings support this solution, showing less than 30 kts of 0-6 km wind shear in this zone. However, latest GFS and NAMNST model soundings do show an inverted-V up to about 3 km, which may indicate microburst potential with storms. Confidence in storm coverage is low at this time, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests only up to a 1 in 3 chance to receive greater than 0.1 inches of rain across the forecast area. Confidence in severe weather occurring is around 5% Thursday.

***Friday/Saturday***

Thursday's cold front looks to begin eroding the strong ridge across the Great Plains, moving the ridge axis westward over the Four- Corners Region by Friday morning. Flow at 500-mb over the forecast region is favored to be northwesterly to northerly through Saturday. As such, highs are forecast to slightly drop into the low to mid 90s Friday, and upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday. A surface high in association with the ridge looks to be to the north of the forecast area, and may establish southerly winds across Eastern Colorado Friday evening, with easterly flow across Western Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. As such, showers may develop across Eastern Colorado Friday. Again, coverage is uncertain at this time, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests less than a 25% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across most of this zone. However, strengthening of the shortwave trough to the east may support the development of a 500-mb jet streak over the region. This is reflected in LREF sfc-500mb wind shear guidance, which shows a 40-60% chance of wind shear greater than 30 kts across Eastern Colorado. If thunderstorms are able to take advantage of this, they may be allowed to become severe. Even so, confidence in severe weather Friday evening is about 5% due to uncertainty in the coverage.

***Sunday-Tuesday***

The ridge axis is favored to be overhead once again Sunday as a strong 500-mb trough traversing Southern Canada and the Northern United States pushes it east. Conditions would warm up again into the mid and upper 90s Sunday, and upper 90s to lower 100s Monday. However, conditions look to be drier. GEFS 850-mb guidance shows a weak low in the U.S. Southeast. This would create northerly flow across the Texas coasts and prevent moisture from returning to the forecast region. Relative humidities (RH) may drop into the lower 20s to upper teens during this period. While this does not meet critical fire weather criteria (RH<15%), NBM guidance shows a broad region across Eastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska with a 50% chance or higher of experiencing wind gusts over 30 mph both Sunday and Monday. Considering that fuels are drier across this region, the potential development of critical fire weather conditions may be something to keep an eye on going into the weekend. Additionally, a surface low associated with a trough to the north may produce a few showers along a cold front Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Noticing a very similar setup to what occurred with stratus and fog last night as a surface high is getting nudged into the area. Based on this have concern for IFR and LIFR ceilings and visibilities. Most fog should it develop should be in the 2-6sm range but some patchy visibilities down to one quarter mile are possible. Lingering light rain may disrupt fog potential at MCK so wasn't quite as aggressive with that as I was for GLD. Any fog and stratus is forecast to dissipate mid to late morning. Winds are forecast to become easterly Wednesday afternoon sustained around 15kts. Am watching for another threat for showers and storms affecting GLD towards the latter part of the period but confidence is not high enough to include a PROB30 at this time.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.