textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather threat has diminished early this morning. A strong line of storms is currently moving southeast along I-70, with heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning the main threats.

- Brief lull in activity expected later this morning. Cloud coverage today may lower overall severe storm chances today. Best chances for severe weather look to be south of I-70 and in Eastern Colorado.

- Locations that received heavy rain during the past several days are more prone to experience flash flooding through the next 24-48 hours. Flood Watch has been expanded to account for this.

- Severe weather chances continue through at least Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 150 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A strong line of storms stretching from Yuma to Norton Counties this morning. While the primary severe threat has diminished, strong winds, heavy rain, small hail, and frequent lightning are still potential hazards as this line moves to southeast towards/along I-70. The primary risk through the morning will be Flash Flooding as most of the CWA has received roughly 1-6 inches of precipitation over the last few days.

High resolution guidance suggests widespread precipitation to move out of the CWA closer to daylight, with lingering light rain showers possible. Areas of patchy fog may also develop through the morning hours, especially in areas not experiencing convection where some clearing in the cloud deck is possible. Moving through the rest morning, the lull in activity will give way to another round of potentially strong to severe storms in the area.

Recent guidance has lowered the overall risk for widespread severe weather across the CWA. The best chances for severe weather look to be south of I-70 and in eastern Colorado as we progress through the afternoon. The SPC has most of the CWA in at least a Marginal Risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening, where wind and hail will be the primary threats. Outside of the potential for severe wind gusts and hail, heavy rain will again be concern with storms that develop, therefore continuing the risk for Flash Flooding across the already saturated soils of our area. Storm coverage and severe potential will also be hindered/aided by cloud coverage/clearing through the morning hours.

By tonight, isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will continue, with best chances pushing into the eastern portion of the CWA closer to nighttime. By early Friday morning, most of the activity will be out of the area or dissipated.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Friday, our region is forecast to transition out of a mostly zonal pattern into a weak ridging pattern with an incoming trough west of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s to 80s with around a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon/evening. Storm coverage will likely be limited due to the upper-level ridge pattern, but isolated storms could produce large hail and strong winds. Saturday and Sunday will be hot and dry with highs forecast in the 90s to 100s. Relative humidity (RH) values will drop into the low teens Saturday and Sunday afternoon along with wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible. Given the recent substantial rainfall across the county warning area (CWA), this lessens fire weather concerns, though conditions will continue to be monitored.

Conditions cool slightly in the wake of a cold frontal passage Monday. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s to 90s for Monday and Tuesday. Potential for a more active pattern returns after Tuesday as an incoming trough is forecast to move through our region. Low confidence on specifics since this is the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 503 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Lingering RA with TSRA/VCTS around GLD and MCK this morning. VFR and MVFR conditions the next few hours, then as clearing begins periods of MVFR/IFR conditions from isolated SHRA/-RA and developing BR at both TAF sites. BR with ceilings below 500 feet introduce periods of LIFR conditions around 03z Friday. Isolated rain showers and VCTS may develop around 20z today, though confidence is low on how widespread precipitation may be, with best chances for precipitation mainly south of I-70.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Observations at Oberlin show the Sappa creek as fallen below flood stage, allowing the river flood warning to be dropped. However, based on upcoming QPF, the river may return back to 15.5 feet (Moderate Flood Stage). Due to this forecast, a River Flood Advisory has been issued for Sappa Creek at Oberlin to the county line. Based on the 1996 flooding along the Sappa creek, the NCRK1 gauge should see a rise to around 10-12 feet, which is below flood stage. Also, based on the expected storms over the next 24 hours, the Republic River will also see at least in bank rises.

Over the past several days, multiple rounds of rain have lead to 1-6 inches of rainfall across most of the CWA. With widespread precipitation expected this evening and into Thursday morning, a Flood Watch has been issued for nearly all of the CWA, save for Cheyenne county, CO. Storms tonight early in the event look to have slow motions. Bunkers right motion look to crawl around 5-15 kts with Bunkers left motion moving around 10-25 kts. 0C levels look to still be in the 15,000 foot range, leading to a deep melting layer. PWATs remain in the 1.2-1.5 inch range, so expect very efficient rain producing storms.

In addition to all of that, there are signs that "fingers" of backbuilding overnight tonight, which would keep efficient precipitation over one area for up to a few hours. Guidance is showing widespread 0.5-1.5 inch totals, but swaths of 3.5-5+ inches. What is extra concerning is guidance shows these high rainfall totals occurring near the areas that have seen the higher amounts of rainfall over the past several days. Precipitation is expected to persist off and on tomorrow and even into Friday morning. This prolonged potential for heavy rainfall over already saturated soil may become a particularly dangerous situation overnight and tomorrow morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. CO...Flood Watch through this evening for COZ090-091. NE...Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ079>081.