textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated severe storm is possible late this aft-eve, mainly south of I-70 in CO and nearby KS border counties ~5-11 pm MDT. Quarter size hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are the main hazards.

- Expect near normal temperatures today followed by a warming trend through the remainder of the work week, with triple digit highs possible across portions of the area on Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Today-Tonight: Westerly flow aloft will transition to NW flow aloft this afternoon into tonight.. as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West and 4-Corners. Early morning convection has muddied an already poorly defined MSLP to 850 mb height pattern over the Tri-State Area. High-res guidance suggests that light E to SE low-level flow.. and diurnal convective development.. will largely be confined to the Raton Mesa, Palmer Divide and southern portions of the Colorado Front Range (south of I-70 in CO).. along the southern and western periphery of a post-convective mesoscale high over central and eastern Kansas. With steering flow from the NW (~320 degrees) and right-mover motion from the N (~360 degrees), convection, organized or otherwise, will tend to track/propagate toward the SE and S. In other words, severe weather potential should largely be relegated to locations south and west of Goodland (Cheyenne County, CO and Wallace-Greeley counties, KS). Expect near average temperatures with highs in the upper 80's and lows in the lower 60's.

Thursday: Expect dry conditions (little chance for precip) and a warming trend as the amplifying ridge over the Intermountain West and 4-Corners broadens and extends eastward across the central-southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the High Plains.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Ensemble guidance continues to be in support of ridging at 500-mb overhead through the duration of the long term period. At the same time, a 500-mb shortwave trough looks to be traveling anticyclonically around the ridge, with a high amplitude 850-mb trough at its leading edge. There are indications that a surface low will be able to form across the High Plains in association with this 850-mb feature, and move over or just south of the forecast region Saturday and Sunday.

***Saturday/Sunday***

Southerly flow underneath the ridge alongside solar heating looks to favor hot conditions Saturday and Sunday, with highs forecast in the mid to upper 90s, and possibly low 100s in some spots. In addition, GEFS 850-mb height guidance is in support of a high across portions of Eastern Texas during this period, which would prevent moisture from entering the southerly return flow. This is expected to promote dry conditions across portions of East-Central Colorado and West- Central Kansas, where relative humidities (RH) may drop into the lower 20s to upper teens. While RH values are forecast to be a bit low, fire weather conditions are not yet expected either Saturday or Sunday, as wind gusts are not favored to exceed 25 mph except in Kit Carson and Yuma Counties in Colorado, where wind gusts may reach the 25-30 mph range. Still, LREF guidance shows that RH values have less than a 20% chance of meeting criteria for critical fire weather conditions (less than 15% RH) across nearly the entire forecast area. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is less than 5% both Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast guidance continues to suggest that showers and thunderstorms are also possible during this period in association with convergence from the surface low pressure. Even so, NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows a 1 in 3 chance or less across the forecast area both days for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation to be experienced. Any storms that develop are not expected to be severe, as LREF guidance shows a 2 in 3 chance or better that sfc- 500mb wind shear will be below 30 kts. Currently, the greatest concern with these showers is that they may be able to produce dry lightning, particularly across East-Central Colorado where RH values are lowest, and NBM guidance shows the highest chances of showers occurring.

***Monday/Tuesday***

As the surface low moves well south of the forecast area, a weak cold front may lower temperatures a couple of degrees into the low to mid 90s. Chances for precipitation increase a little bit during this period, especially on Monday when NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows a 40-60% chance of receiving greater than 0.1 inches of rain across portions of Eastern Colorado. This would be in association with a cold front. The risk for severe storms continues to be low, as LREF guidance shows similar probabilities for wind shear as Saturday and Sunday. RH values look to improve as well, as temperatures drop a little, and easterly winds across portions of Central and East Kansas feed slightly higher dew points into the forecast area. This would reduce risks for critical fire weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

GLD: As of 0945 UTC, early morning showers/storms have progressed south and east of Goodland. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable with gusts around 10 knots possible.

MCK: While showers are possible in the vicinity of the airport prior to sunrise, sub-VFR ceilings/visibility are not expected. VFR conditions and light winds are forecast to prevail through the 12Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.