textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy to windy conditions are forecast early Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening. Gusts up to 50-60 mph may lead to some patchy blowing dust.

- Increased fire danger today for most of the area.

- Severe weather returns end of this week through early next week. Main days for severe weather look to be Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 117 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Current observations show a large trough across much of the CONUS with a shortwave trough moving through the Plains. As it has done so, a surface low pressure system and associated cold front have begun pushing east/southeast into the Plains. This has increased the winds a bit very early in the morning to around 15-20 mph. They should remain around here for most of the early morning hours until close to sunrise. As the sun begins to rise, the low/front are forecast to push through the area and shift winds to our of the north/northwest. As the winds shift, they should also increase on the backside of the low/system. The current forecast favors sustained winds around 20-30 mph. Gusts are likely to be in the 35- 50 mph range with the inversion forecast to hamper mixing down of 45- 50 kts wind around 850mb. That being said, there could be a few gusts to 60 mph around 7-9am, right as the inversion is undone. This would likely favor south of I-70, but is possible across the area. If the winds do reach gusts to 60 mph, then there will be some blowing dust with persistent dry and warm conditions. Depending on the timing, low level lapse rates may become steep enough to allow dues to loft, but be confined with the remnants of the inversion. This does lead to concern for a wall of dust to develop with visibility around 1 mile. Given the timing and how well conditions would have to line up, the chances for quarter mile or less visibility are currently around 20% or less.

Once the system moves through the area, winds are forecast to slowly lower through the day as the system gets further away and another broad low pressure center develops southwest of the area. With winds from the north allowing for some cold air advection, temperatures are forecast to cap in the 90s for most of the area. The exception is close to the next low center around Cheyenne county in Colorado. Some locales near here could reach 100. There remains some concerns for critical fire weather conditions with drier air forecast to move in and lower relative humidity into the teens. For most of the area, winds should lighten below 25 mph and keep the threat on the low side. For Southwest Nebraska, there is still some concern that relative humidity could drop into the mid teens during the afternoon while wind gusts remain around 35 mph. However, with confidence only 50-60% that multiple hours of critical conditions would be achieved, I have opted to cancel the Fire Weather Watch. Caution is still advised though with sparks and flames with winds remaining breezy.

This evening and into tonight, the low is forecast to shift south as higher pressure moves in from the north. Most guidance is suggesting that the high pressure will be rather broad, keeping winds around 10- 15 mph. The drier air should help temperatures cool a bit more into the 50s, but winds remaining around 10-15 mph and some intermittent high clouds may be enough to keep parts of the area in the 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The weather pattern becomes more active as we end the week. Upper air analysis shows a strengthening ridge over the Central Plains through Saturday. During this time temperatures will gradually warm each day. Friday south winds will become gusty as low level winds strengthen ahead of a cold front that moves through Saturday night. The forecast currently shows winds lower on Saturday compared to Friday. However models do show the low level winds to be similar to Friday, if not stronger for the afternoon. As such, would think the winds for Saturday will end up being stronger in the forecast. Relative humidity values for Friday are currently high enough to negate fire weather concerns at this time.

Storm activity returns to the forecast area Friday night as the first of several upper level short wave troughs move through. This trough looks to be one of the weaker ones. Ensemble model probability for rainfall is on the low side, around 10% for more than .05" of rain occurring. There is also a corridor of higher dew points that may move into the forecast area ahead of the short wave trough. Deep layer shear looks to be 35-50 kts. The ingredients are coming together for severe weather to occur Friday late afternoon and evening.

Saturday and Sunday look to be more favorable days for severe weather due to a stronger upper level short wave trough moving through compared to Friday. Saturday is the more favorable day based on the stronger upper level short wave trough moving through. A dry line may form over the forecast area during the afternoon. Model ensembles have the dry line over the central part of the forecast area. Deep layer shear is similar to Friday, around 40 kts. Storms may merge into a line as they move east over the forecast area. If that happens, thunderstorm wind gusts will be a key hazard. Sunday is similar to Saturday with storms during the late afternoon and evening. For both days the eastern half of the forecast area is favored for more rainfall/storm activity. Storm activity for both days should happen primarily during the late afternoon/evening.

Monday and Tuesday the active weather pattern continues as upper level short wave troughs continue across the forecast area. As with the weekend, storm activity should primarily be during the evening. These short wave troughs do not appear to be as deep as the ones on the weekend, which suggests the intensity of the storms will be lower than the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1113 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. There remains a 10-20% chance for some blowing dust around 11-14Z as a cold front moves through the area, switching winds to out of the north and increasing speeds to near 30 kts with gusts as high as 40 kts. If blowing dust does move over a terminal, visibility would likely lower to around 3-4 SM. Otherwise, winds should slowly lower after 15Z and become more 10-15 kts after 00Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 117 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Still expecting the first front to arrive this morning around sunrise and increase the winds to 20-30 mph from the north/northwest. Gusts should generally be in the 35-50 mph range, but the chance for 60 mph gusts increases slightly around 7-9am as the inversion weakens.

Drier air should filter in and lower relative humidity into the teens. For most of the area though, an expanding low pressure system should keep winds below 25 mph. The sweet spot remains around Southwest Nebraska where winds may gust 35 mph or more through most of the day between systems. Confidence remained only about 50-60% though that relative humidity would lower to 15% or less for multiple hours in the watch area, so elected to cancel the Fire Weather Watch. Still be alert for briefly critical fire weather conditions and another front that passes through close to sunset. Winds may again gust 25-35 mph before lowering after midnight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.