textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers/storms will develop over the region this afternoon and last into the overnight hours.

- A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of the area on Thursday. Potential for fire weather concerns to continue through Monday.

- Strong winds from the northwest early Friday morning may gust up around 50 MPH.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 124 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

This afternoon, things get more interesting. Temperatures look to top out in the 50s and 60s, coolest in the northeastern CWA, as a 500 mb trough pushes in from the west. This is giving us increasing forcing throughout the day as an 850 mb low in Colorado pulls in more moisture from the east.

Precipitation for this event will start off coming from the southwest around 18-21Z. PoPs increase throughout the day, peaking around 21-06Z this evening. The entire CWA has a greater than 70% chance at seeing some precipitation, and there's a 50% chance most of the CWA receives 0.1 inch of QPF by Thursday morning. Isolated locations along and north of U.S. 34 have a 20% chance of accumulating more than 0.5 inch of rain from this system! Along and south of U.S. 36, there will likely be a brief break in precipitation before a final wave moves through from the west. The bulk of the precipitation will be in the first wave of precipitation.

There is potential for some thunderstorms to mix into the ongoing precipitation around 21Z, but severe weather is unlikely. The biggest hazard would be winds coming out of the storms. Most likely gusts would be in the 35-45 kts range, with peak potential of 55 kts. Precipitation will be exiting to the east early Thursday morning. Likely around sunrise most of the CWA will be clear of rain. As the precipitation exits, winds from the northwest will briefly increase and gust up around 30 kts are expected.

Tomorrow, we warm back up into the 70s as winds become southerly and gust up around 25-35 kts in the western CWA. With the warmer temperatures and stronger winds, we are worried about critical fire weather conditions. The Fire Weather Watch remains in place as confidence is only around 50-60% that RH values will meet criteria. Additionally, the precipitation over the next 20 hours should help some, how much is still a bit unknown. Briefly critical fire weather conditions across most of the Watch area is likely (80%).

Overnight Thursday, another cold front will sweep through the area. This does introduce a fairly low (<20%) chance of precipitation along and north of U.S. 34. Additionally, there is a 30% chance northwestern Kansas receives 45+ kts winds around 12Z from the northwest. Winds will weaken slightly during the day, with persistent gusts around 30 kts likely. Once again, there is concern for critical fire weather conditions, but the RH values are right on the line. However, GFDI values in eastern Colorado are climb up to around 60.

We cannot rule out the potential for blowing dust with these stronger winds. By 21Z 0-2 km lapse rates will be above 10 C/km, increasing the potential for lofted dust. Confidence in visibility being reduced to less than 1 mile in a plume of blowing dust is about 15%. Overnight Friday, winds will weaken and temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 131 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Saturday morning, a low amplitude trough is forecast across the High Plains region. Temperatures are expected to be average for early April with highs forecast in the 60s and lows in the 30s. Northwest winds are forecast to pick up in the early afternoon. Wind gusts from 30-45 mph are possible for the northwest portion of the county warning area (CWA). Yuma County will likely see the higher end of wind gusts. Skies are forecast to be clear with a weak inversion in place. If more cloud cover occurs and the inversion strengthens, stronger winds aloft will not be able to mix down to the surface, resulting in overall weaker winds. Currently, winds are forecast to be below criteria for dust products, but there is a low chance (approximately 5%) of localized areas of blowing dust in Yuma and Kit Carson Counties based on 0-2 km and 2-2.5 km lapse rates.

Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the mid/high teens for the western CWA. Saturday's strongest winds do not coincide with the lowest RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are still likely. Fire weather concerns may further diminish if we get enough precipitation from Wednesday's system for RH values to increase.

Sunday, there is a building ridge in the western CONUS placing us in a predominantly zonal flow. Expect sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 70s for the CWA. Lows are forecast in the 30s to 40s. Wind gusts up to 20 mph are possible and RH values are in the mid teens to low 20s, so fire weather conditions are not a concern at this time.

Conditions look similar on Monday with a building ridge traversing towards our region. Winds increase with gusts up to 30 mph possible for the northern CWA. Highs remain in the 70s with lows in the 20s to 30s. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, we see an uptick in Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) due to a weak cold frontal passage and weak shortwaves passing through the region. PoPs range from 10-20% with a wintry mix possible based on forecast temperatures.

Chances for precipitation continue Tuesday as weak embedded shortwaves move through the region. Lack of upper level forcing will keep PoPs low at around 20% for the region. If precipitation occurs, rain is most likely given forecast temperatures. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s for the CWA.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1042 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Conditions are forecast to worsen throughout the period for both KGLD and KMCK. Ceilings look to be the big impact for both sites, likely dropping to IFR, potentially even minimums for KMCK.

Showers may start moving in from the southwest as soon as 19Z for KGLD and 21Z for KMCK. KGLD has a 10-20% chance of having thunderstorms in are area this afternoon and evening. Around 3Z at KGLD, a low will move over the airport, causing winds to go from southeasterly to northwesterly by 6Z, still in the 15-20 kts range. Precipitation is forecast to take a break at this point and may return around 7Z. KMCK, once the precipitation begins, it will likely persist until morning.

Conditions will rapidly improve tomorrow morning, after sunrise.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ027-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ252>254. NE...None.