textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect for counties generally along and south of I-70 Thursday. A cold front is forecast to move through, increasing winds to around 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Dry conditions are also forecast to persist.

- Low potential for active weather early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 539 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Increased pops a little bit across Yuma county for the next few hours as agitated cumulus across the Nebraska Panhandle develop and also off of the Rockies. Forecast guidance indicates some MUCAPE present so a rogue dry lightning strike or two can't be completely ruled out. Steep mid level lapse rates as plotted on the SPC Mesoanalysis page and a corridor of 1000+ j/kg of DCAPE across Yuma county could also result in a gusty to strong downburst wind gust with any dry convection. Confidence in any of this is less than 10%.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight: Hotter and drier with record or near-record highs in the 90's and minimum RH readings around 10%. Breezy NW winds during the late morning have rapidly weakened to 10-15 mph during the past hour or so (since ~12p MDT, check out KGLD velocity data from 17-19Z). Winds will further weaken this afternoon, becoming variable during the late afternoon. Modest southerly return flow (S winds at 10-15 mph) will follow, this evening and overnight, with overnight (Thu morning) lows in the upper 40's to mid 50's.

Thu-Thu night: Challenging temperature forecast. Winds will shift to the NNE-NE during the mid-late morning as a broad surface low in western KS shifts south toward the OK Panhandle. Expect a north-to-south cooling trend and breezy to strong (~25-35 G 45 mph) NNE to NE winds associated with pronounced surface pressure rises / low-level cold advection during the mid-late afternoon, as modified surface high pressure in the Dakotas shifts southward into Nebraska, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70's north of Hwy 34 to lower 90's in southern Greeley/Wichita counties and overnight (Fri morning) lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, a surface high is forecast to be in place across the area. The morning hours are forecast to be the breeziest in wake of the cold front with southern portions of the area perhaps still seeing 35-45 mph winds as the nocturnal inversion breaks and winds from the 850mb level can mix down. The air mass will be in wake of Thursday's cold front will be cooler and a lot more March like with highs in the 50s across the area. Dry air will again be in place as northeasterly 850mb winds will filter in dry air allowing humidity values to fall into the upper teens to low 20s. With the lack of correlation with the breeziest winds during the morning and the driest air during the afternoon fire weather is currently not of significant concern but a few hours of elevated to locally critical conditions could be possible across eastern portions of the area.

During the night and into the day Saturday a surface trough is forecast to move through as winds shift to the southwest and warming temperatures occur for at least western portions of the area. The majority of GEFS ensemble members favors a bit more eastern progressive warm front which may lead to a large area of critical fire weather concerns as the 850mb wind field is forecast to be 25- 35 knots. The 700mb wind field currently appears to be a little weaker which suggests to me that a stronger sustained winds is most likely. A caveat to the fire weather concerns for Saturday at least across eastern Colorado is the development of a surface low which could weaken the winds during the afternoon. There is also some question if humidity across eastern portions of the area can fall to critical thresholds as this will be dependent on the eastward progression of a warm front. High temperatures for the day are currently in the upper 60s to mid 80s but could be another 5-10 degrees warmer if the warm front is a bit more progressive.

Sunday, warm temperatures are forecast to continue as the surface trough continues to push to the east. Winds for the day are currently forecast to be lighter . Near record high temperatures are again in jeopardy. There is a small potential for some virga/sprinkles/light showers as a with a departing 250mb jet. Currently it appears that northwestern portions of the area at risk for this. However confidence is around 10-14% at this time. Guidance has backed off of the MUCAPE as what I was seeing yesterday but will still need to keep an eye on this on the off chance there could a rogue dry lighting strike with how dry the fuels are.

Starting the new work week, the pattern begins to become a bit more active with the potential for shortwaves within southwesterly flow. Moisture advection is forecast to also be on the increase as well which suggests that showers and perhaps some thunderstorms may be possible across the area. There is still a lot that needs to be ironed out before getting into coverage, amounts and if severe weather will be possible but is something that will need to have an eye kept on. High temperatures for the start of the week are still forecast to remain warm with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both terminals. There is a 10% chance that a few sprinkles/showers could move over KMCK between 0600-0900Z. If one does move over, be alert for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Otherwise, skies should clear out for most of the period. A cold front remains forecast to move through the area between 1200-1800Z, shifting winds to be more from the north/northeast. Winds should also strengthen with speeds at the surface around 20 kts and gusts up to 40 kts. after 1500-1800Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Thursday: A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for portions of the area on Thursday, mainly south of I-70 where well above normal temperatures and dry conditions (RH as low as 15%) will persist and light (10-20 mph) NE winds during the late morning and early afternoon will abruptly increase to ~25-35 mph w/gusts to 45 mph during the late afternoon. RH readings will quickly rise as temperatures fall from north to south at the onset of strong NE winds / low-level cold advection during the afternoon. While it seems unlikely that Red Flag Warning criteria will be met for several consecutive hours, abrupt strengthening of NE winds during the late afternoon could pose a significant risk to first responders, should any fires develop, especially with extremely dry fuels from prolonged hot/dry weather and worsening drought.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ253- 254. NE...None.