textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- 10-20% chance of fog overnight in Greeley and Wichita counties. Dense fog would be possible.

- Warming trend this week as Wednesday's high temperatures near 100 degrees and may pose a fire weather threat.

- Breezy to windy conditions are forecast early Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening. Gusts up to 50 mph may lead to some patchy blowing dust.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1242 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Early this morning, we will see efficient moisture advection into the southern CWA, which may lead to patchy fog. Widespread dense fog is not expected, but visibility may drop to less than a mile in low- laying areas.

Today, we remain under northwesterly flow, as an 850 mb ridge moves over the CWA. This will keep precipitation chances near 0 as we warm up and start drying out again. Temperatures look to warm into the low 90s as RH values drop into the teens and low 20s. Eastern Colorado may see briefly critical fire weather conditions, but not enough for a Red Flag Warning.

Overnight, a strong 850 mb low will be moving across the Northern Plains. This will increase the southwesterly flow across the region, and between midnight and sunrise Wednesday, gusts from the southwest look to be in the 25-35 kts range. This will certainly lead to much warmer lows overnight, likely remaining in the 60s, but some places may stay in the 70s overnight. Warmer temperatures are expected in the eastern CWA.

Around sunrise Wednesday, that low will sweep a northwesterly cold front through the region. This will cause a rapid wind shift, and with the FROPA, northwesterly winds are expected to be gusting in the 20-30 kts range, but occasional 35-40 kts gusts are possible. These winds look to weaken slightly in the midday and early afternoon.

In the evening, around 0Z, a high moving over the Northern Plains will push out the low shove another cold front through the CWA. Winds with the FROPA will be from the northeast, but gusts look to remain around the 20-25 kts mark. As the night progresses, there is a 60% chance gusts gradually increase to around 30-35 kts south of I- 70 after 6Z.

Thankfully there is a less than 10% chance gusts approach or exceed 50 kts, so a High Wind Warning is not expected. However, we are expecting warm and dry conditions Wednesday. With the timing of the first cold front accelerating, highs are no longer expected to push into triple digits across much of the CWA. Locations along and southeast of a line from Hill City to Tribune may see 100 degrees briefly, but the bulk of the CWA looks to remain in the 90s. There is some concern for fire weather still, but confidence in needing a Red Flag Warning has dropped to around 25-30%. For more information about the fire weather threat, see the fire weather section below.

The dust threat for Wednesday largely looks to be nuisance level, but we cannot rule out worse conditions. With the first front, we are not expecting a wall of dust, but as the morning progresses plumes of dust may be lofted. 2-2.5 km lapse rates look high enough to allow most of this dust to mix into the atmosphere. This would cause haziness and poor air quality, but only localized visibility reductions would likely occur near source regions. There looks to be a lull in the dust threat in the afternoon before the second cold front. Depending on the strength and timing of the second front, the dust threat increases. Based on current guidance, there is a 20% chance for blowing dust to reduce visibility down under a mile and a 2-5% chance for a haboob with the second cold front. The increased blowing dust threat hinges on the front speeding up and entering the CWA around 21-22Z and gusts with the front to be around or above 30- 35 kts.

The dust threat looks to end around 3Z when lapse rates do not support any dirt to be lofted. Wind gusts look to persist in the 20- 30 kts range until about 6Z, and then gradually weaken. Lows are forecast to drop into the 50s and low 60s overnight Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 202 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Starting the extended period Thursday, a surface high is forecast top be pushing in from the north in wake of the Wednesday night front. Winds may still be a little breezy through the morning hours but are forecast to wane through the day. A potentially more active pattern may present itself into the weekend with severe weather possible as mid level troughing begins to present itself. The day of interest currently appears to be Saturday as a large surface low develops across Colorado further providing lift. A tightened pressure gradient is seen on guidance for Friday along with an 850mb wind field around 20-30 knots in place. Soundings do suggest this to more of a higher sustained wind with the 700mb wind field being around the same if not actually weaker. Fire weather does not look to be as a concern as moisture advection is forecast to be ongoing through the day.

As for temperatures for the extended period, a brief cool down is forecast on Thursday with highs in the low 80s before warm to hot temperatures return this weekend as a surface high returns. The question is where will the surface high sets up looks to dictate how it will get as the GFS has the high set up across the southern Plains which could mitigate how warm it could get versus the ECMWF which has it displaced versus to the southwest which would favor warmer temperatures for the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1022 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Winds will be light and variable until the midday Tuesday when they will favor a southwesterly flow. Occasional gusts up to 20 kts are possible, but winds look to largely remain 15 kts, until the end of TAF period.

It's not included in the 6Z TAFs, but we are expecting strong winds to start up around 6Z tomorrow. Gusts in the 20-30 kts range are expected after 6Z tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 406 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A signal for mid June fire weather potential remains starting as early as late Tuesday afternoon. Guidance is suggesting a surface trough nudging into northeastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon hours Tuesday which would bring in drier air and also increase winds to around 25-35 mph for a few hours after 22Z Tuesday. Confidence is too low in meeting the duration of 3 or more hours for the need of a Fire Weather product at this time. Winds are however forecast to remain breezy through the evening and increase overnight as a weak front moves through. With the continued breezy winds do have some concerns that temperatures will not fall much and RH doesn't rise above 35% resulting in minimal recovery. The peak of the winds looks to occur during the early morning hours Wednesday and last through around 18-21Z or so before waning some. We do get some moisture advection during the afternoon which does look to keep RH in the mid to upper teens and temperatures a little lower for the afternoon hours along with the cold front which is trending a bit faster. This would be the best case scenario for fire weather as it could be more of a "marginal" event than what was seen before. Contemplated a Fire Weather Watch but wanted to hold off at least one more run to ensure the front doesn't speed up more and further eliminate the threat. Nevertheless am still expecting at least elevated fire weather conditions across most if not all of the area.

With the recent rains over the past few weeks part of the area has greened up enough per fuels partners. Dundy through Red Willow along with Decatur, Sheridan, Gove, Norton and Graham have all been deemed "green" by partners. Elsewhere the concern for fire spread still remains especially in the longer duration fuels.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.