textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible over a limited portion of the area today and Friday, mainly in northeast Colorado.

- A system may affect the region early next week with increasing precipitation potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Overview: Modest WNW to NW flow aloft will prevail over the region through the remainder of the work week.. on the northeastern fringe of an upper level ridge over Baja, CA and western periphery of a broad upper level trough / cyclonic flow aloft over the central-eastern CONUS.

Today-Tonight: Expect cooler (albeit still above average) temperatures in the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, with highs in the 60's. A weak, ill-defined MSLP gradient will foster light winds across the majority of the area today, except (perhaps) in northeast CO and adjacent KS border counties during the late morning to early afternoon, when and where (according to the GFS) ~25 knot NW flow will be present on the western fringe of a departing 850 mb trough.. and downward momentum transport assoc/w vertical mixing could facilitate a period of breezy (20-30 mph) NW winds. Poor model-to-model consistency w/regard to the magnitude of low-level flow (HRRR is 5-10 knots weaker than GFS) and poor spatio-temporal overlap between the breeziest winds (late morning to early afternoon) and lowest RH's (mid-late afternoon) suggest that critical fire weather conditions, if present, would likely be brief/localized in nature. Winds will become light/variable at sunset, then WSW- SW at 5-10 mph late tonight. Expect overnight (Fri morning) lows in the mid 20's to mid 30's.

Fri-Fri night: With little change in the synoptic pattern, expect sensible weather conditions similar to today, albeit several degrees warmer. With little or no horizontal thermal advection in the lower-levels, temperatures will largely be a function of airmass modification assoc/w unimpeded insolation. Once again, an ill-defined MSLP gradient will foster light winds across the majority of the Tri-State Area, except (perhaps) in Yuma County, CO where a narrow corridor of ~25 knot NW low-level flow extending ESE from the Cheyenne Ridge into northern and northeastern CO could foster breezy (20-30 mph) NW winds and locally critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon. Expect overnight (Sat morning) lows in the lower-mid 30's.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 238 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Northwesterly upper-level flow looks to be in place across the forecast region Saturday morning. A shortwave ridge in Canada along with a strong 90-110 kt jet streak over the Great Lakes Region are embedded in this flow. This pattern favors a strong high pressure in South-Central Canada, which looks to move southeastward throughout the day with the upper ridge and jet. A cold front at the leading edge of this high pressure system is likely to cross the forecast region sometime between the morning and afternoon hours on Saturday, which would allow cooler conditions across the CWA. Depending on the timing and strength of the cold front, high temperatures may still be allowed to reach the 60s and 70s across the forecast region Saturday. Even so, portions of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska still have 75th-25th percentile high temperatures differences of 10-17 degrees, which could produce high temperatures 5-10 degrees lower than this current forecast.

Going into the evening and night hours on Saturday, there is the chance for wintry precipitation across portions of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska ahead of an embedded shortwave trough in the northwesterly flow. However, there is some uncertainty as to when the precipitation is going to begin. NBM guidance suggests that there is a slight chance for the precipitation to begin overnight, though a dry layer looks to exist just above the surface that may prevent precipitation from beginning this early. Ensemble guidance seems to support this solution, showing less than a 10% chance for accumulations across this zone before sunrise. This may begin to change as a surface low in association with the approaching shortwave begins to establish a southerly return flow across portions of the forecast area. As this occurs, frontal lift may begin to take place, and allow precipitation to occur across a larger portion of the CWA, potentially extending into Eastern Colorado. Model guidance indicates that precipitation from this system could last through Monday morning. Low temperatures in this period look to be in the upper-teens to mid-20s, with a wide range for high temperatures on Sunday from the upper-30s to mid-50s.

The weather pattern looks to become more active Monday afternoon through the rest of the period, as northwesterly flow continues to exist across the Northern United States, and a slow, eastward moving trough from the West/Four-Corners Region moves toward the forecast area. Southerly flow ahead of this approaching trough may help build a modest ridge above the CWA, allowing for warmer conditions. Current forecast highs Monday are in the 40s, though moderate uncertainty continues to exist regarding high temperatures, as 75th-25th percentile differences for high temperature remain high in the 15-20 degree range. Warming may be enhanced by an additional shortwave trough embedded in the northwesterly flow to the north, as southerly flow would be allowed to strengthen. In this case, high temperatures could reach into the 50s and 60s. However, model guidance is inconsistent on whether this additional feature will be present. Precipitation may also continue to persist across the Central High Plains as the Four-Corners system approaches the CWA, which could lower high temperatures into the 30s. Still, confidence in coverage, timing and intensity of the precipitation is low through Tuesday afternoon.

The trough from the Western United States looks to finally reach the forecast region by Tuesday afternoon, which may spawn a more organized winter system. The type of precipitation that falls from this event would be dependent on surface temperature. From Tuesday through the end of the period, forecast highs are currently in the 50s and 60s, with lows in the 20s and 30s. Still, high uncertainty in the surface temperatures continues to exist as with previous days in the forecast period. If below freezing temperatures can be experienced Tuesday night, snow or a wintry mix of precipitation may occur. However, NBM guidance suggests rain is the favored precipitation type. Going toward the end of the work week, another upper-level trough looks to be approaching the area, which may introduce further chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 320 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

GLD: VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will rule through the TAF period. WNW to NW winds at 5-10 knots will prevail through sunrise. A few hours after sunrise, ~16Z, NW winds will increase to 14-18 knots (possibly gusting to ~25 knots) for a period during the late morning to early afternoon. Winds will decrease to ~11-14 knots during the early-mid afternoon, further weakening and becoming light/variable around sunset. Winds will shift to the WSW-SW late this evening (04-06Z Fri) and persist through sunrise Fri.

MCK: VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will rule through the TAF period. SW to W winds at 5-10 knots will prevail through sunrise. Winds will veer to the NW and modestly increase to ~10-15 knots an hour or two after sunrise (~15Z) and persist through the majority of the day. Winds will become light and variable around or shortly before sunset. Winds will shift to the WSW at 5-10 knots late this evening/overnight (~06Z Fri) and persist through sunrise Fri.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.