textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather is forecast late this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Large hail potentially reaching 4 inches in diameter, wind gusts of 60-80 mph, and maybe a tornado or two are possible.

- Locations that received heavy rain during the past several days are more prone to experience flash flooding through the next 24-48 hours. Flood Watch has been expanded to account for this.

- Severe weather chances continue through at least Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 139 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Today, skies have cleared out much sooner than most guidance. This will lead to warmer temperatures and potentially more CAPE for storms this afternoon and overnight to feed off of. Highs are now forecast to warm into the low to mid 80s across the CWA. Convection looks to fire west and northwest of the CWA in the mid-afternoon and enter the CWA around 23-01Z. A wide 500 mb trough is what will be the driving force behind all of this precipitation. I mention it's wide, because it could stretch from the CO/UT to KS/MO border overnight.

There is a low threat of landspouts this afternoon along a slow moving cold front stretching from Gove to Yuma counties before the main storms move in.

Severe threats this evening and overnight will start off with hail around or larger than 3 inches and a couple of tornadoes being possible, but not likely. RFD winds are also possible in the 80 MPH range early on as storms are more isolated and starting to cluster. Once they have clustered, the hail threat lowers to the 1-2 inch range, but the potential for 80 MPH increases and if a bowing segment forms. The threat for a tornado lowers significantly overnight, but a brief QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out.

The severe threat looks to persist until 6-9Z with lingering sub- severe storms and showers lasting until as late as noon tomorrow. This leads to an additional flooding threat, discussed below in the hydro section.

Overnight lows look to cool to around 60 and areas that are not experiencing convection will likely see low stratus and fog. Tomorrow's high heavily depend on how low convection lasts, but may be capped in the 60s for the northeastern CWA and near 80 for the southern CWA.

The convection looks to have a lull sometime in the late morning into the afternoon, but there's only about 50-60% confidence in this lull. In the afternoon to late evening, another wave of strong to severe storms may form in eastern Colorado and move east through the CWA. The 500 mb trough that will be forcing this looks to only lead to spotty, widespread vorticity. This lowers the potential for severe weather, but there is still a 10-20% chance for 1-2 inch hail and 60 MPH winds. This severe threat could once again be focused more during the evening and overnight hours, but the convection early in the morning may prevent any evening severe storms from occurring. Once again, convection may last into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Friday, our region is forecast to transition out of a mostly zonal pattern into a weak ridging pattern with an incoming trough west of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s to 80s with around a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon/evening. Storm coverage will likely be limited due to the upper-level ridge pattern, but isolated storms could produce large hail and strong winds. Saturday and Sunday will be hot and dry with highs forecast in the 90s to 100s. Relative humidity (RH) values will drop into the low teens Saturday and Sunday afternoon along with wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible. Given the recent substantial rainfall across the county warning area (CWA), this lessens fire weather concerns, though conditions will continue to be monitored.

Conditions cool slightly in the wake of a cold frontal passage Monday. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s to 90s for Monday and Tuesday. Potential for a more active pattern returns after Tuesday as an incoming trough is forecast to move through our region. Low confidence on specifics since this is the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1034 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions may briefly drop to MVFR during the afternoon hours, depending on how dense the cloud cover become as Cu forms. We are expecting southeasterly winds to pick up across the region, likely gusting around 20 kts before sunset. Storms will be moving this evening and linger through most of tomorrow. Near minimum conditions are possible for both KGLD and KMCK around sunrise tomorrow.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Observations at Oberlin show the Sappa creek as fallen below flood stage, allowing the river flood warning to be dropped. However, based on upcoming QPF, the river may return back to 15.5 feet (Moderate Flood Stage). Due to this forecast, a River Flood Advisory has been issued for Sappa Creek at Oberlin to the county line. Based on the 1996 flooding along the Sappa creek, the NCRK1 gauge should see a rise to around 10-12 feet, which is below flood stage. Also, based on the expected storms over the next 24 hours, the Republic River will also see at least in bank rises.

Over the past several days, multiple rounds of rain have lead to 1-6 inches of rainfall across most of the CWA. With widespread precipitation expected this evening and into Thursday morning, a Flood Watch has been issued for nearly all of the CWA, save for Cheyenne county, CO. Storms tonight early in the event look to have slow motions. Bunkers right motion look to crawl around 5-15 kts with Bunkers left motion moving around 10-25 kts. 0C levels look to still be in the 15,000 foot range, leading to a deep melting layer. PWATs remain in the 1.2-1.5 inch range, so expect very efficient rain producing storms.

In addition to all of that, there are signs that "fingers" of backbuilding overnight tonight, which would keep efficient precipitation over one area for up to a few hours. Guidance is showing widespread 0.5-1.5 inch totals, but swaths of 3.5-5+ inches. What is extra concerning is guidance shows these high rainfall totals occurring near the areas that have seen the higher amounts of rainfall over the past several days. Precipitation is expected to persist off and on tomorrow and even into Friday morning. This prolonged potential for heavy rainfall over already saturated soil may become a particularly dangerous situation overnight and tomorrow morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. CO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for COZ090-091. NE...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NEZ079>081.