textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and windy today with critical fire weather, patchy blowing dust and isolated thunderstorms.

- Fire weather conditions possible again Thursday and Friday. Yuma county is the main concern for Friday.

- A system may affect the region early next week with increasing precipitation potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1207 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

A windy and mild day is expected across the area today. Winds may take a while to get going, but by this afternoon with deep mixing should tap into an 80-90 kt jet at 500 mb as a sheared out shortwave moves in from Wyoming. Strongest winds will be in Colorado and Nebraska, and adjacent counties, where gusts of 40-50 mph will be common, with perhaps an isolated gust up to 60 mph. Scattered showers and virga by late afternoon may also help with downward momentum and localized higher gusts. Mixing heights are a little too high for widespread blowing dust, but with dry conditions/mild temperatures may see some patchy plumes and more of a general haze develop. Afternoon relative humidity minimums are in the 15-20% range, but with the gusty winds GFDI is extreme in western/northern areas so opted to upgrade to Red Flag based on that rather than RH. Even then it will be marginal along the southern/eastern edges of the warning area. HRRR showing 100-200 j/kg of SB and MUCAPE in the afternoon and early evening hours, so can't rule out an isolated high-based thunderstorm and a few lightning strikes/possibly dry thunder through about 02z. Tonight, a surface cold front surges south through the area between 23-03z, with a wind shift to the north northeast and a short period of gusty winds along/immediately behind the front. HRRR suggests winds gusts of 50-60 mph possible in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, which may be enough for some patchy blowing dust with the front as well. Wind and precipitation threats end by midnight with clearing skies and low temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday will be mostly sunny and slightly cooler with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Models show another fast moving shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft and a wind shift at the surface. Much drier air moves in behind this wind shift with afternoon humidity tanking into the teens, especially in Colorado. However, winds peak in the morning to early afternoon behind the wind shift, then gradually diminish through the rest of the afternoon. Since the highest winds (morning) and lowest humidity (afternoon) are not currently overlapping, may escape critical fire weather conditions. However, if the winds linger longer than models are showing, which is possible with deep mixing, then may have fire weather concerns mainly in Colorado/adjacent counties. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Temperatures rebound into the upper 60s and lower 70s on Friday as northwest flow continues. With the warming temperatures and low dew points afternoon relative humidity minimums will drop well into the teens. However, winds may be lacking for critical fire weather with no jet streak aloft (models show 40-50 kts at 500 mb) and only sporadic afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph. Lows Friday night will be in the lower 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 109 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Starting the extended period Saturday, a strong low pressure system situated across the the New England region is forecast to send a cold front into the region. The coldest of the air is forecast to stay away from the CWA but some GEFS and ECWMF do have the front sagging a bit further south which could lead to high temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than currently forecast with 850mb around 0- 3C across the northeast quadrant of the CWA. Not seeing much in the way of wind with this front but some breezy winds could develop as the pressure gradient tightens across the Tri-State border area (Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS)). Current forecast does have some approaching elevated fire conditions, but also is not counting for the colder solution which would eliminate any fire weather concerns.

Sunday currently appears to be closer to the first of March temperature wise with highs in the mid 40s to low 60s currently. Currently am a little skeptical of the high temperatures in the forecast as most ensemble members keeps a lobe of the cooler air mass of the region through the day which again would lead to high temperatures around 10-15 degrees colder than forecasted. Currently I would give a 70% chance that high temperatures for Sunday will trend colder than what is forecast at this time based on pattern recognition and that with backdoor fronts a lobe of colder air typically does linger longer. The other factor that leads me to believe is increasing cloud as some moisture return appears to occur. Deterministic GFS and ECMWF both show shortwaves and embedded vorticity maxima in the flow in the 500mb level leading which may lead to some light snow or a rain/snow mix depending on what occurs with the temperatures. Current forecast doesn't reflect the precipitation chances in the forecast currently but am seeing around additional in the 850mb layer across northeast parts of the CWA, may need to keep an eye on some freezing fog or freezing drizzle with this Sunday morning. 12Z LREF does indicate around 10% chance of at least a trace of freezing rain accumulation which often does correlate with the freezing fog/freezing drizzle concern. Omega does increase as the day goes on as a stronger vorticity maxima moves across the area.

Into Monday, again furthering confidence that Sunday high temperatures will fall as the day get closer, the current forecast has highs in the 40s across the entire area. Precipitation again is forecast Monday due to a departing 250mb jet and the region being ht right entrance region of the jet and an associated approaching 700mb shortwave. Due to the cooler temperatures a rain/snow mix is currently forecast but changing over to snow as the sun sets. At this time any precipitation looks to be fairly minimal and obvious impacts seen at this time. Mid-week am noticing an increasing signal for additional moisture advection and indications of troughs moving through which may lead to an active pattern. Still to be seen if any impacts can come of this.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 408 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. High based virga/sprinkles continues to move through the area this morning with no impacts expected. Westerly surface winds will increase through the day, with peak gusts of 25-35kts at both terminals by the afternoon. Scattered high based virga/showers will also continue, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, with bases around 10kft. A cold front late in the afternoon and early evening will shift winds to the north northeast, with gusts to 35-45kts for an hour or two along and immediately behind the front. Some patchy blowing dust may also accompany the frontal passage.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ this evening for KSZ001-013. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ this evening for NEZ079>081.