textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy freezing fog may develop this morning over parts of the tri-state region, with localized dense fog and slick travel if it were to develop.

- Our next system looks to occur Friday, thankfully major impacts are not expected. However, light snow accumulations up to 1 inch and wind chills as low as -15 F are possible Friday Night into Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 314 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mid/upper level flow remains out of the northwest with a mid level shortwave progressing over the region (strongest forcing near the base of the trough in southwest KS). Surface low pressure had develop farther south over south central KS cutting of our region from the better BL moisture advection while TD depressions off the surface remain much higher. As with previous trends this pattern is keeping the signal for light freezing drizzle farther southeast from our region with HREF FRAM QPF max well southeast and LREF trace ice accumulation no longer highlighting our southeast CWA. We'll keep an eye on things but current trends are lowering the risk even farther from yesterday for icing impacts from drizzle this morning.

Regarding dense fog potential this morning: A consensus of guidance including NBM probs have significantly backed off on the potential for dense fog in our CWA. The exception is the HRRR, with each run continuing to show the development of an axis of dense fog along and east of the KS/CO state line before sunrise where the leading edge of a frontal zone is pushing west. This would be a favorable region for low level moisture pooling and if radiational cooling were able to lower BL Td depressions we could see fog start to develop. Trends have not matched this thus far, and low stratus/fog has yet to develop anywhere. Td depressions have remain in the 5-10F range locally as mid level clouds have limited cooling early this morning. There is still a window for dense fog development through sunrise as we approach peak radiational cooling, so I do not want to discount this signal. If dense fog were to develop with sub freezing temps both visibility impacts and slick travel could develop. Predictability will just remain very low and be something to monitor.

Friday-Friday night cold front: There is still a signal for light snow to arrive as a mid level wave rotates across the Central Plains to the east of the tri-state region and a series of cold fronts push west (Friday and a secondary period of CAA Friday night). Snowfall will predominantly be driven by passing synoptic forcing with PVA aloft, with only a few transient pockets of frontogenesis associated with the lingering baroclinic zone supporting localized rates more than 0.1"/hr. The trends for snow amounts continue to show mainly a dusting (few tenths of an inch to 0.5") with only a few members with supporting localized totals around 1" (NBM probs generally 15-20%). The coldest air behind the fronts is shown to remain east, with the coldest temps (single digits below) more in Graham/Norton counties. Current guidance keeps wind chills at coldest locations in the -5 to -10 range, however depending on winds there is still a low chance for values near -15 in those eastern counties.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 150 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

Saturday: Low-level southerly return flow will develop over the region on Sat, as 1045-1050 mb high pressure progresses southward through central-eastern KS and OK. Expect a west-east gradient in temperatures, warmest (mid-upper 40's) in the west and coldest (upper 20's) in the east.. with increasing cloud cover during the afternoon as small amplitude shortwave energy digs SSE toward the Central Plains.

Sun-Mon: Expect dry conditions and a warming trend as the blocking ridge over the west CONUS raises anchor and progresses east across the Rockies (Sun) and Central Plains (Mon).

Tue-Wed: Long range guidance suggests a transition to troughing aloft over the central CONUS by mid-week.. on the eastern periphery of renewed and rapidly amplifying ridge along the Pacific Coast. Expect a cooling trend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 434 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

An area of stratus has formed in northwest KS and satellite shows this spreading towards KGLD early in the TAF period. Trends based on obs support at least a period of IFR conditions before this stratus clears after sunrise. There is still a window for fog development over the first 3hrs of the TAF period, however confidence in visibility impacts lower than 3sm are very low based on current trends in obs and guidance. VFR is more likely to prevail at KMCK this morning as this stratus is forming to the west-southwest and flow is moving it away from southwest Nebraska. After the stratus and any fog clears with daytime mixing VFR should prevail at KGLD.

Winds are shifting to the northeast behind a frontal zone but should turn back to the northwest and increase this afternoon. Highest winds (12-15 mph) are expected at KGLD with weaker gradient and lighter winds at KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.