textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased fire danger is forecast today and Monday with above average temperatures and afternoon relative humidities as low as the middle to upper teens. Wind gusts to 20 mph are possible today with higher winds gusting 20-40 mph on Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Mid/upper level ridging is building farther east, while rising heights within NW flow and downslope is leading to broad lee troughing out into the central High Plains. The ridge is expected to progress across the region through this afternoon and evening. The result has been the moderation of the air mass over the tri-state region with 950-850MB WAA underway. 850 MB temps are already in the 5-8C range and increasing based on RAP analysis (near 10C by this afternoon). Mostly clear skies and what should be very good mixing today support warmer temperatures and the potential for lower Td values than mean guidance and deterministic NBM initializations. Adjusting for higher temperatures in the middle 60s (NBM 75th percentile) and the potential for Tds in the 14-16F range (NBM 10th percentile), minimum RH values this afternoon would likely drop to the 15-18% range along and west of Highway 27 (18-25% range to the east). Weaker gradient and lower mixed layer winds limit impacts though, and critical fire weather conditions/RFW criteria is unlikely this afternoon. There could still be periodic gusts to 20 mph though in our west, and this creates the potential for increased fire danger with dry/finer fuels.

Monday is a bit more complicated as the amplitude of the mid/upper ridge flattens and flow becomes more westerly as a shortwave trough moves through the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains. This pattern shift allows for increasing mid to upper level clouds that could play a role in limiting mixing, so while surface gradient and higher winds aloft could support the potential for higher winds the magnitude and frequency of stronger gusts could become less certain. In addition, lowered mixing heights may limit how low Tds are before a front arrives later in the afternoon causing a rise in Tds within the boundary layer. The air mass remains warm it may be harder to achieve lower RH values below 20% for most areas. The faster timing of this weak front also shifts the axis of higher temps aloft and we not be quite as warm on Monday as today (upper 50s vs middle 60s). It is still a day to monitor for fire weather concerns, but critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Conditions remain warm Tuesday with high temperatures forecast in the 50s and lows in the 20s. We start off in a mild northwest flow with a ridge building off the west coast. As the day progresses, the ridge builds setting up a jet maximum over the Rocky Mountains. Simultaneously, a positively tilted trough from the Great Lakes region digs towards our county warning area (CWA).

The digging upper level trough is accompanied by a jet maximum over the Rockies. This feature weakens as it passes through our CWA. A backdoor cold front northeast of the CWA further dries out the airmass keeping precipitation chances with this disturbance low. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are currently below 15% overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. If precipitation were to occur, it would likely be a light rain/snow mix mainly for our Colorado counties.

High temperatures are slightly lower for Wednesday due to the overnight backdoor cold frontal passage northeast of our CWA. Highs are forecast in the lower 50s and lows are in the 20s.

Wednesday afternoon, the ridge remains in place over the Intermountain west region while a low develops off the Baja California coast. This sets up a Rex blocking pattern ushering in sunny skies and above average temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period. High temperatures for Thursday are forecast in the mid 60s for the CWA. Thursday afternoon is forecast to be windy for our Colorado counties with gusts from 25-35 mph expected. Winds will quickly back down after sunset. Saturday and Sunday continue to be warm with high temperatures forecast in the high 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 420 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

The low level jet responsible for low level wind shear earlier has transitioned east of KGLD and KMCK and impacts are unlikely the rest of the morning. VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the TAF period with only passing high level clouds (20-30,000 ft agl). West-southwest winds will tend to increase to the 12-15kt range at KGLD during peak daytime mixing (remaining 10-12kt at KMCK) and eventually decrease as they shift to the west-northwest this afternoon as weak low pressure shifts east. Winds become light and variable this evening after sunset (5kt or less) and begin to prevail from the west- southwest again late in the TAF period as low pressure rebuilds to the west.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.