textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooling trend starts today!

- Scattered showers possible throughout the day before strong to severe storms this evening and overnight. All hazards are possible, so be prepared to act!

- Strong to severe storms may return Sunday afternoon and evening, with all hazards being possible again.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 205 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Early this morning, there is an elongated low traveling eastward through Nebraska into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The has put a slow moving cold front over the CWA, allowing some showers to form along and north of U.S. 36. This precipitation is expected to cease before 9Z and no further severe weather is expected. Behind the cold front, the northerly CAA is expected to advect stratus into the CWA, impacting the aviation community. There is a 20% chance patchy valley fog forms along and north of U.S. 34. Visibility is expected to remain above 1 mile and will lift before 15Z. Lows this morning will get into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

After sunrise and into the afternoon, there is a 20% chance that the slow moving cold front will initiate some weak convection across the CWA. The threat for severe weather before 21Z is less than 5%. As the day progresses, temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 70s along and north of a line from Norton, KS to Wild Horse, CO. South of this line, temperatures will warm into the 80s.

In the evening hours, the upper level low that's been moving across the Northern Rockies will extend a trough axis southeastward, moving across the CWA. This will allow a lee low to form in Colorado, which will subsequently move eastward through the CWA. This will be the cause of our storms tonight.

The severe storm threat looks to be focused between 0-9Z, forming in eastern Colorado before barreling eastward and impacting the rest of the CWA. All hazards are possible with the storms this evening. There are two distinct tornadic threats, the first is very early in the event with an isolated supercell, but this has a less than a 2% chance of occurring. The slightly more likely risk (2-5%) will be from a QLCS tornado. This would likely happen between 23-4Z and near the southern edge of the complex of storms, where low level instability is better.

As far as wind and hail, if the cells remain discrete, the wind threat tops out around 65 MPH, but hail up to 2 inches and accumulating is possible with 1,500-3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-60 kts of 0-6 km shear. If the storms cluster in a disorganized manner, they may struggle to become severe, leaving 50-60 MPH winds and 0.5- 1 inch hail being most likely. If a QLCS can form, the hail threat caps out around 1 inch, but 80+ MPH winds would be possible. There is a low (<10%) risk of blowing dust from these storms. Rain from Friday night and a later storm start time leave conditions less favorable for blowing dust.

There is a 30% chance flash flooding becomes a threat with this system. Highest potential for flooding is in Kit Carson county. Efficient rain producing storms trailing the initial onset of convection is expected. Rainfall rates may exceed 3 inches per hour with the most efficient storms, which may quickly overwhelm drainage systems. This threat gradually wanes after 6Z, but will persist until near sunrise Sunday morning, as lingering shower and storms may not exit the CWA until closer to 12Z.

Behind the precipitation, there is a 30% chance for widespread fog with patches of dense fog. This would likely start forming around 9Z and may last until 15-18Z. Lows are expected to be in the low 50s to mid 60s by Sunday morning.

The morning fog and northeasterly flow will work to keep temperatures fairly cool Sunday, likely topping out around 70 for most of the CWA. The upper level low will be moving over the Northern Plains Sunday afternoon and evening, providing forcing for another round of storms. As it stands, there is only about 50% forecaster confidence that storms will form. Reason being is that the low may not be as strong as some models are showing, providing zonal flow without a jet streak.

However, if storms are able to form, they will be in a moderately sheared environment with marginal CAPE. This does pose a threat for all hazards being possible, including a limited tornado risk. The tornado risk would peak around 21-02Z. Areas along and west of KS 27 have the best chance at seeing a tornado, but the risk is less than 5%. Wind gusts up to 65 MPH and 1.5 inch hail are the more likely threats from these storms, with a 10-15% chance of occurring. The severe threat looks to conclude by 6Z.

If these storms move over the same areas that efficient rain produces move over this evening, there will be a 30% chance of flash flooding Sunday afternoon and evening. Once again, Kit Carson county is the most likely place for this to occur. The main flooding threat looks to cease around 6Z, however end timing for this event is very much up in the air, and we could see precipitation continue until near sunrise. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s!

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 229 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026 Updated at 205 AM.

Monday through the end of the week is looking fairly consistent forecast wise. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s with afternoon PoPs around 30-50% due to embedded shortwave and jet support. Starting Monday, we transition to more of a zonal upper- level pattern with a jet streak overhead. Early Wednesday, we are forecast to transition to a weak ridging pattern with a jet streak remaining overhead. The jet streak overhead the CWA will cause windy conditions Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with gusts from 30-40 mph possible for the western CWA. Increased jet support is expected to remain over the area through at least Thursday, but models diverge on when the jet streak will move on. This will ultimately affect precipitation chances for the CWA.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Low clouds will continue to erode early this afternoon, with a return to VFR at both KGLD and KMCK by 20z. This evening, a line of thunderstorms is expected to move out of Colorado and across the area, accompanied by strong wind gusts of 40-50 kts and potentially reduced visibility in blowing dust. After the storms pass, low clouds and patchy fog will develop overnight and persist through Sunday morning. IFR and occasional VLIFR conditions can be expected.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.