textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended period of widespread dense fog is forecast tonight through at least Tuesday mid morning. Temperatures are expected to remain at or just above freezing but some localized slick spots due to freezing fog can't be ruled out.

- Rain showers are favored along and north of Interstate 70 Tuesday.

- Thursday could see some fire weather threat along with the potential for thunderstorms for portions of the area during the evening and overnight.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1231 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Fog and stratus is taking its sweet time leaving Graham and Norton counties this morning but is forecast to do so a little after 18Z as a developing tight pressure gradient associated with a surface low across Colorado moves towards the area. As the pressure gradient tightens breezy winds are forecast to develop across the area with wind gusts around 30 mph forecast. A wide range of high temperatures remains forecast across the area for the day due to the lingering fog and stratus and the low across Colorado with highs in the mid to upper 40s across Graham and Norton and to the upper 60s to low 70s across eastern Colorado.

Tonight as the low moves towards the area, moisture will begin to be advected into the area leading to fog and stratus across the area. Fog is forecast to move into Norton and Graham counties as early as 11pm CT tonight and gradually expand to the west into eastern Colorado. 12Z HREF and REFS have high to very probabilities for 1/2 mile or less visibilities with the HREF around 50-60% and the REFS around 80%. For what it is worth the REFS was less excited about dense fog potential for Monday morning so seeing probabilities this high is for sure eye catching. Some fail points to the dense fog potential is the potential for some drizzle or light rain to develop starting around 09Z or so as cross section analysis shows around -4 microbars of omega in the 925-850 mb layer favoring eastern portions of the forecast area. Another fail point is the potential for lingering mountain cirrus to interfere with radiational cooling potential; this one seems less likely as the majority of the fog looks to be advection but it could have an impact on the coverage and duration. As we are aware fog forecasting is very finicky so even with such high probabilities with the few fail points am opting to hold off on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory this shift but one may be needed in upcoming shifts. As what was mentioned in the previous discussion the threat for freezing fog is a bit lower than last night but have noticed a cooling trend with guidance. I don't want to completely rule out freezing fog with low temperatures near or within a degree or two of freezing but confidence is a bit lower at this time.

Tuesday, as the low pressure system continues to move east a cold front is forecast to move northwest to southwest through the area ending and fog as it moves through. If the front is a bit slower then dense fog potential for eastern counties may linger into the early afternoon. There is rain potential with the front as well, but has trended a bit less widespread than what was being seen yesterday and favoring those north of the Interstate. This appears to be tied to the better mid level forcing remaining further to the north. Rain is the current forecasted precipitation type but would not be overly surprised if some snow could mix in over the higher elevations of Yuma and Kit Carson counties. Not expecting any impacts if this were to occur given the warm ground temperatures. High temperatures for day are currently forecast in the 50s but could be lower if clouds/fog were to linger longer or if the cold front moves through quicker. Tuesday night, fog could again be a concern as a surface high moves in wake of the day time front as winds become light and variable; guidance does show some lingering moisture across the area as well so will be something to keep an eye on. Rain chances are forecast to continue across the area as a shortwave off of the Rockies moves across the area Tuesday night.

Wednesday continues to be be the most uneventful day of the week as the region in between systems as highs in the 60s are forecast to return. Lingering clouds could perhaps knock a few degrees off of the current forecasted high temperatures but confidence is not there to make any changes at this time.

Thursday, has the potential to be the more impactful day of this period. Large troughing develops over the western CONUS during the morning hours as a surface ow develops across eastern Colorado during the afternoon and the evening hours. Moisture return is also forecast to occur during the day as well which is forecast to lead to a dryline across the area. The trends with the dryline has been to the west which was seen in the ECMWF yesterday and now the GFS and its over mixing bias mentioned yesterday is showing this same trend as well. This does raise the concern for some strong to perhaps even severe storms Thursday. The timing is still being worked out but current forecast favors the evening and overnight as better synoptic forcing moves into the area. GEFS Mean Spread and ECMWF ensembles do show the potential for a slower progression of the system which could lead to precipitation chances starting Thursday afternoon; this is also when some 700mb jet streak divergence is seen in the ECMWF as well which would add some additional forcing as well. This slower trend if it were to occur would increase the coverage of strong to severe storm potential versus the current forecast which would mainly favor Wichita, Gove, Graham at the least. Will wait at least one more forecast package before adding in thunder into the forecast to ensure this trend continues.

Behind the dryline Thursday, critical fire weather could be a concern as well as the 850 and 700mb wind fields both increase with the incoming trough. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 40 mph currently appear to be the most likely outcome. Still where does the dryline set up at? With the western trend eastern Colorado counties would be the most likely to see critical fire weather concerns but could impact Dundy down through Greeley counties as well.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

A deep upper-level trough looks to be in place across the Western United States Friday morning, with southwesterly flow overhead. A 500-mb shortwave system and jet streak may be embedded in this flow, which could establish a surface low pressure across the Tri-State area. Several different scenarios are possible for the weather conditions we may experience Friday afternoon, and vary between thunderstorms (possibly severe), critical fire weather, and cooler conditions due to a cold front passage. The type of weather experienced on Friday will highly depend on the exact location of the surface low pressure, which is quite uncertain at this time. A strong north-to-south oriented dryline looks to be attached to this system, with southerly surface winds ahead of the dryline, and southwesterly behind. Severe thunderstorms would be most likely if the surface low can track across Northeast Colorado and Southwest Nebraska during the afternoon hours. In this case, convection could initiate along the dryline while it is centered in the forecast region. A similar track of the low could also produce critical fire weather conditions, but would need to have a faster progression eastward than the severe case. This would allow southwesterly 15-20 knot winds behind the dryline to create drier conditions, especially for Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas. Relative humidities in the mid-teens would be possible, in addition to wind gusts up to 35 mph, which would support critical fire weather. Alternatively, for a scenario of cooler conditions, the surface low could track further south, or progress eastward much quicker to where it is east of the CWA by Friday afternoon. This would allow the cold front to pass before or during the afternoon hours. At this time, there is not a clear favored solution.

Surface winds look to have a more northerly component by mid to late- Friday evening, which would bring cooler conditions into the CWA. Low temperatures Friday night are currently forecast in the mid-20s to low-30s. In addition, precipitation may occur Friday evening and overnight behind the cold front. Precipitation type is uncertain at this time in large part because exact timing is uncertain. Precipitation that falls earlier in the night may be rain due to above freezing temperatures, though may transition into snow or a wintry mix when surface temperatures drop below freezing. Portions of Eastern Colorado seem to be most favored to receive this round of precipitation.

The remainder of the forecast period looks to be characterized by a secluded 500-mb low in the Southwest United States, and a highly disturbed jet stream across the Northern United States and Southern Canada. Ridging downstream of the secluded low and shortwave troughs embedded in the jet stream flow to the north look to battle for dominance, introducing additional uncertainty into the forecast. Temperatures may fluctuate higher or lower as a consequence of this pattern, though timing of these fluctuations remain ambiguous. Even so, NBM guidance suggests dry, precipitation-free conditions through Monday afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1016 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the afternoon and evening for each terminal. Breezy winds are forecast to develop from the SSE for each terminal this afternoon with gusts up to 30 knots. A very strong signal for stratus and fog overnight and into Tuesday morning is seen. Have very high confidence in IFR conditions for each terminal; LIFR conditions are forecast as well currently. Dense fog with visibilities 1/4SM or less on the table. Temperatures are currently forecast to be around freezing so remain aware for some icing potential. GLD is forecast to clear out quicker than MCK on Tuesday with IFR to LIFR possibly persisting through the end of the period for MCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.