textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issue this morning. Patchy fog may impact most of the Tri-State area this morning, making travel more hazardous. Thursday morning will see fog return to the area. Patches of freezing fog may lead to slick elevated surfaces.

- Widespread rainfall expected with upcoming storm system on Thursday and Friday. Western portions of the area may have a rain/snow mix.

- Another storm system moving onto the Plains early next week.

- Colder pattern expected around Thanksgiving.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

The Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire for most of the area with recent observations suggesting visibility around 3SM-10SM. Norton and Graham counties have been extended for another hour with observations still near 1/4 to 1/2 a mile.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 111 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

This morning, as a mid-level ridge is moving over the region, fog and stratus have formed across the eastern CWA. The eastern CWA will be the most heavily impacted by this around sunrise. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the eastern portions of the CWA until 16Z. KHLC has reported dense freezing fog, but is the only site in the CWA that is below freezing. With that in mind, freezing fog could lead to slick elevated surface, but icing on roads is not expected. There is a 50% chance the Advisory will need to be expanded to the west, but mid-level clouds and southerly winds should hold the fog to the advised area. After sunrise, south- southwesterly winds will pick up for a couple of hours and clear out any remaining fog and work to lift the stratus.

A low-level low coming off the Southern Rockies will push a weak cold front through the CWA today. This will lead to light and variable winds moving in around 15-18Z and remaining for the rest of the day. Mid and upper-level clouds will also remain for most of the day, especially in the eastern CWA, but should break over eastern Colorado in the midday. Depending on when the western CWA clears, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s. Over the eastern CWA, where clouds will likely linger all day, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 50s. However, there is a 30% chance highs will top out in the upper 40s for Red Willow and Norton counties.

Tonight, a shortwave ridge moves over the region as winds become northeasterly and RH values climb to near 100%. This will lead to more fog. Confidence for widespread dense fog Thursday morning is sitting around 35-45%. Temperatures across the CWA looks to cool into the low to mid 30s. This is leading to a 10-20% chance of patchy freezing fog for locations generally along and north of a line from Norton, KS to Goodland, KS, to Flagler, CO. Road surface temperatures are still warm enough that widespread black ice would not form even if freezing fog occurs. However, elevated surfaces, such as bridges and raised ramps, could see light ice accumulation if the freezing fog occurs.

Thursday, will remain mostly cloudy ahead of the incoming low. This low, which is currently near Baja California, will be coming over the Southern Rockies Thursday. We expect precipitation to begin after 18Z, starting in the southeastern CWA, and lasting until Friday afternoon/evening, exiting to the northeast. The dominant precipitation type is forecast to remain rain, some snow is forecast to mix in over eastern Colorado. Over the past 12 hours, the LREF and GEFS have moderately backed off on the likelihood of snow mixing in. Current expectation is early Friday morning, between 9-15Z, eastern Colorado will see a rain/snow mix. There is a 30-40% chance of a rain/snow mix west of a line from Kit Carson, CO to Haigler, NE and a 15% chance of accumulating snow near Flagler, CO. Accumulating snow will be made difficult from the warm ground temperatures and rain melting the snow as it falls.

As far as a contingency, there is ~2% chance that the CAA is stronger than guidance is showing or a snowband sets up over eastern Colorado. This would lead to snow for a few hours instead of just a rain/snow mix. In this scenario, 2-4 inches of snow could accumulate, impacting I-70 west of Burlington, CO. Additionally, if this does play out, winds from the east may gust around 20-25 kts, leading to blowing snow impacting visibility and wet, heavy snow sticking to east facing objects.

Overnight lows Thursday are forecast to cool into the low 30s to low 40s with the potential for temperatures below freezing mainly staying in eastern Colorado. Highs Friday will be limited by the precipitation, likely remaining in the 40s. The NBM is likely too warm by 5-10 degrees.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

Overview: A complex, split-flow synoptic pattern will persist over the Continental US through early next week. Long range guidance continues to indicate that another upper level low (anticipated to move ashore northern-central California on Thu) will stall/cut-off along the southern Pacific Coast (Fri-Sat) prior to progressing E or ENE across the Desert Southwest/ 4-Corners (~Sun) and Southern/Central Plains (~Mon).

Saturday: It seems likely that.. confluent flow aloft will be present in the lee of the central Rockies (downstream of the stalled low along the southern Pacific Coast).. and that dry conditions, light winds and slightly above average temperatures will prevail.

Sunday: Similar to Saturday, albeit with increasing upper level cloud cover (and slightly cooler temps) as the previously stalled upper low begins to traverse the Desert Southwest/ 4-Corners and southerly flow aloft overspreads the southern- central Rockies and High Plains.

Sunday Night-Tuesday: Below average forecast confidence*. Precipitation possible. 00Z 11/19 operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in broad agreement with regard to the synoptic pattern and overall course of events, though.. differences persist with regard to the evolution, timing and track of the upper low. The GFS, for example, indicates a slightly faster system with a more southern track (across the Southern Plains) whereas the ECMWF is relatively slower and indicates a more northern track (across the Central Plains). Both solutions are indicative of a warm, 'southern stream' low (similar to the upcoming Thu-Fri system). However.. given the forecast range (120-156 hours out), the complex nature of the synoptic pattern and an increasing potential for phasing between both (northern/ southern) jet branches.. an interaction that may [1] facilitate the development of a deep upper level trough over the central- eastern CONUS and [2] open the 'Arctic airmass gate'.. it would be premature to take present solutions at face value.

Note: *Forecast confidence typically decreases with range. Below average, in this context, is intended to communicate a further reduction in confidence associated with /inherent to/ increased pattern complexity, e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off waves and multibranched jet/wave interactions, among others.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 339 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

LIFR/VLIFR conditions have enveloped KGLD and KMCK. Expect these conditions to prevail until 14-16Z when southwesterly winds will start clearing out the low-levels. By noon, a weak low will be moving through the area, leading to light and variable winds. Cloud cover will remain through the period, but during the midday into the early evening, VFR ceilings are forecast. Overnight tonight, expect a near repeat of conditions this morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for KSZ004-016. CO...None. NE...None.