textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening have a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts as well as blowing dust.

- Much cooler on Tuesday with temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

- Storms possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and again late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Additional storms possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Shortwave trough moving through the northern plains will force a cold front through the area this afternoon and tonight. CAMs show scattered thunderstorm developing along a prefrontal trough by 21-22z from western Nebraska into northeast Colorado, then moving eastward across the remainder of the area this evening. Environment will be weakly unstable, SBCAPE of around 500 j/kg, and deep layer shear will be around 25 kts. However, the hot and deeply mixed boundary layer will support DCAPE of up to 2000 j/kg. The main hazards from these high-based thunderstorms will be wind gusts of up to 60 mph and areas of blowing dust due to the antecedent dry conditions of the past week or so. Storms should weaken after 03z as they continue to move into eastern parts of the area. Overnight in the post frontal environment, will see widely scattered light showers and northeast winds gusting to 25 kts.

The winds will gradually diminish through the day on Tuesday and the widely scattered showers will persist into the early afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs ranging from the lower 70s in Colorado to the middle 80s in northwest Kansas. The low level jet does strengthen Tuesday night, but during the evening it is mostly parallel to the isentropes with little in the way of lift. That does change overnight with the LLJ becoming oriented more westerly and isentropic lift developing generally north of I-70. CAMs not in particularly good agreement on extent of possible convection overnight, ranging from the RFS which shows nothing developing to the 3-km NAM which shows quite a bit. However, the HRRR presents a fairly good compromise and shows scattered development and seems to fit the expected scenario. HRRR shows MUCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg overnight and 0-6km shear of around 50 kts. So, these elevated storms will have some potential to produce mostly small hail, with perhaps a stronger updraft capable of up to quarter size given the strong deep layer shear.

Overnight storms may persist into Wednesday morning before the low level jet weakens and isentropic lift ends. Skies will gradually clear in the afternoon with light northeast winds. Temperatures will remain below normal ranging from the mid 70s in southwest Nebraska where clouds linger the longest to the middle 80s in west central Kansas where they clear the soonest. Wednesday night, models suggesting elevated convection will develop once again, but south of Interstate 70 where modest isentropic lift develops by around 06z and continues through the overnight. RFS shows a east-west oriented band of MUCAPE of up to 1200 j/kg and deep layer shear of around 50 kts. So similar to the previous night, elevated storms capable of up to quarter size hail may be possible south of Interstate 70 in Colorado and Kansas.

Lingering storms Thursday morning should end before 18z, with Thursday afternoon becoming mostly sunny and a bit warmer with highs in the upper 80s. The upper ridge will be centered near the Four Corners with northwest flow around it over the central plains. An embedded disturbance may interact with increasing instability in eastern areas where afternoon CAPE values are forecast to be up to 2500 j/kg with little CIN. Deep layer shear will be around 30 kts. Forcing appear to be on the weak side and there is no discernible boundary to focus convective initiation, the old front remains well to the south, but could see scattered thunderstorms develop by late afternoon or early evening in southeast part of the area (south of I-70 and east of Highway 83), with a low severe risk of wind and hail. This activity should move southeast with the mean flow and out of the area relatively early Thursday evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 207 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be unseasonably warm for the county warning area (CWA). A persistent weak upper-level ridge is forecast to be over the region Friday through early next week. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s on Friday and climb to triple digits Saturday through the remainder of the forecast period. Late Friday into Saturday will be our best chance for precipitation due to weak shortwave passages. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) is only around 15% for the northwest CWA, so little relief from the hot temperatures is expected.

Fire weather potential will be something to monitor for throughout the week. Currently, fuels are dry throughout the entire CWA. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low 20s for the western CWA Saturday and slowly creep down to the mid to high teens through Monday. Afternoon wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible for the western CWA, but lowest RH values and strongest wind gusts are not forecast to coincide, but a few hours of critical fire weather conditions could still be possible given the dry fuels and unseasonably warm temperatures.

Looking further ahead, models are beginning to show a strong ridge set up over the Tri-State area Monday and remain overhead throughout next week. This would support another round of unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions for the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR expected through this afternoon at both KGLD and KMCK. This evening, scattered thunderstorms will accompany a cold front moving through the area. Either terminal could see brief gusts of 40 kts or higher and reductions in visibility in blowing dust as the storms move through (confidence level around 30%). Winds will shift to the northeast and gust up to 25 kts behind the front and through the remainder of the TAF period. Isolated post frontal showers with MVFR ceilings may also develop, but confidence is low (less than 20%) in directly impacting either terminal.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.