textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry and breezy over the weekend and into early next week.

- Low chance for a severe thunderstorm or two today, favoring Southwest Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 229 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

The showers and storms have come to an end as the MCS driving the precipitation is well east of the area now. For NW Kansas and SW Nebraska, low clouds have developed along with intermittent fog and mist. The fog may be dense at times, though likely inhibited by the higher cloud cover. This looks to persist for most of the night with continued southerly/southeasterly flow. As long as the moisture lingers, temperatures should stay in the 60s. Otherwise, temperatures should drop into the 50s, especially in Eastern Colorado.

Today, the upper low is forecast to push more into the Northern Rockies and take shape. As it does so, the surface low that has been to the west is forecast to start pushing east into the Plains. This should cause the low level flow to shift to more out of the southwest, bringing in drier air and warmer temperatures. With the drier air coming in and clearing out the clouds, temperatures should warm into the 90s with the warm air advection. As alluded to, dewpoints are also forecast to begin dropping as a dryline pushes into the area. Those west of Highway 27 could see dewpoints drop into the 40s while the rest of the area remains in the 60s. Also, with the system moving into the Plains, the pressure and height gradients are forecast to increase the winds. Speeds are forecast to reach 10 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Generally, this would lead to critical fire weather concerns, but the recent rainfall as lowered how receptive fuels in the area are to burning.

Late this afternoon and evening, a few storms are forecast to try and form along the dryline and/or higher terrain to the west. Most of the area is forecast to be under a cap that inhibits most storm development and maintenance. This is forecast to cause the area to be scrapped by a few marginal severe storms. However, ensemble spread charts show varying positions for the low and upper low. Maybe a slight shift could help lead to a more favorable environment for storm development. This would be bad though as the environment is forecast to have MUCAPE around 3000 J/kg and effective shear around 45 kts, supporting supercells and very large hail. Overall, the chance remains 5% or less, but keep an eye out for updates.

Tonight, the dry air is forecast to continue pushing in with the southwest flow. For most of the western half of the area, skies should be clear. Eastern portions on the other hand may still see some low cloud cover and fog develop depending on how much the dry air pushes in. Otherwise, temperatures are forecast to only cool into the 60s and 70s with the downsloping/warming component of the winds.

Sunday, the upper low is forecast to shift slightly to the east while largely spinning in place. Ensemble guidance again shows a fair amount of uncertainty in how far north/east the upper low deepens. This will affect how close the low gets to the area and how strong the winds get. The current forecast keeps the south/southwesterly flow at 15-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. This might be slightly lower if the low center ends up more over the area. Drier air is forecast to continue to push into the area, lowering dewpoints across the area and effectively bring our precipitation chances to near zero. Temperatures should warm to near 100 with drier air and clear skies.

Monday, the upper pattern changes very little as troughing remains in place while the upper low shift north. This should push the center of the surface low north as well and lower the winds a bit. Speeds are forecast to be 10-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Short of the lower winds, not much else is forecast to change. PRecipitation chances should remain low with the dry air in place and temperatures again warm to near 100.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 152 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be fairly consistent for our county warning area (CWA). Persistent southwest upper-level flow is forecast to be over the region through at least Friday. This will result in warm temperatures and a windy work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s with some areas in the southern CWA seeing low 100s through Friday. Expect the afternoons to be windy with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible. The western portion of the CWA will be on the higher side of wind gusts. Embedded shortwaves will bring afternoon precipitation chances each day, but Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are only around 25% each afternoon.

Fire weather conditions will be the big question for next week. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to fall into the teens across the western CWA accompanied by strong afternoon winds. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are forecast in the high to extreme category. However, given the recent substantial rainfall, fuels may remain unreceptive, which could mitigate the overall fire weather threat despite the hot, dry, and windy conditions. We will have to watch how much fuels dry out over the weekend to better determine fire weather potential for next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

*** Updated KGLD ****

For KGLD... The low level moisture pushed far enough west for ceilings to drop to a few hundred feet and intermittent fog. Winds are slowly becoming a bit more southwesterly upstream of the area, which should bring some drier air in before 12Z. Once the clouds clear, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the first 2 or so hours, but recent observations from surrounding sites show ceilings lowering. Expect ceilings to lower overnight down to near 1200ft, and then closer to 200-400ft by 12Z. Some mist/fog is also possible with visibility around 1-3SM. Ceilings should slowly increase during the morning and become VFR close to 18Z. This then should hold through the day with winds roughly from the south/southeast.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.