textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will continue to warm through Monday.

- Threat for heat related stress will be highest on Monday with a Heat Advisory in effect for portions of the area.

- Late afternoon-evening storm chances return by mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Synoptic Overview: The core of the pronounced upper level ridge over the 4-Corners and central Rockies (today) will broaden and extend southeastward over the Central and Southern Plains on Mon-Tue.. as shortwave energy rounding the northern periphery of the ridge in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan digs ESE across the Dakotas (Mon) and Upper Great Lakes (Tue).

Today-Monday: Primarily a persistence forecast. Weak tropospheric flow beneath the ridge, weak to neutral horizontal thermal advection and the continued absence of convection (i.e. no outflow) over or upstream of the Tri-State Area, temperatures will largely be a function of diurnal heating/insolation and gradual (day-to-day) airmass modification. For today and Monday, expect sensible weather conditions similar to yesterday (Saturday), albeit slightly warmer each day, culminating in highs (and heat indices) ~100-105F on Monday. Despite weak tropospheric flow and little in the way of mechanical mixing, warmer temperatures will, nonetheless, foster a modest day-to- day increase in mixed-layer depth (i.e. deeper vertical mixing) and a corresponding decrease in surface dewpoints during peak heating, keeping apparent temperatures (heat indices) at or below air temperatures in eastern CO and extreme western KS. Guidance suggests that surface dewpoints in the lower 60's and apparent temperatures at or slightly above air temperatures will be confined to eastern/lower elevation portions of the Goodland county warning area, mainly east and north of Colby, KS. The Heat Advisory in effect for northeast portions of the area on Monday remains in place as-is (no changes).

Tue-Tue night: An inverted surface ridge.. the southernmost extent of surface pressure rises and low-level cold advection in the wake of a modest mid-latitude cyclone progressing east across southern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes Monday night.. will extend southward into the Goodland county warning area Tue morning, manifesting as an abrupt NE or ENE wind shift and modest effective cold frontal passage. Expect a period of relatively breezy (~20-30 mph) ENE winds immediately following the frontal passage, with highs ranging from ~92-95F (north) to ~95-100F (south). In contrast to previous days, the timing of the frontal passage will be the dominant factor influencing highs. While low-level convergence along the southward progressing effective front could potentially serve as a focus for convection south of I-70 during the late afternoon, a profoundly suppressive (and thermodynamically hostile) environment beneath the core of the upper level ridge will significantly hamper, or altogether preclude, convection development. With this in mind, precipitation is not expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Tuesday: The dominant 500 mb ridge of high pressure continues on Tuesday, but the axis slowly migrates southward. While the core of the higher heat (temperatures) will start to wane, low level south to southeasterly flow will maintain a warm and somewhat humid air mass across the tri-state area. High temperatures will generally sit in the low to mid 90s. Looking at the National Blend of Models (NBM) probabilistic data, max temperatures exceeding 95 (which is near to slightly above normal for this time of year) has fallen to around 60% or less for Tuesday (indicating a gradually cooling trend) as a weak cool front moves through the region. Heat indices will climb in the low to mid 90s as warm weather continues.

Wednesday-Saturday: A more noticeable pattern shift arrives by Wednesday and persists through the end of the week. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the upper level ridge of high pressure will flatten out and be suppressed to the south and the central high plains region has a quasi-zonal to northwest flow regime aloft with embedded short wave disturbances with decent vorticity spin within the main flow. As a weak frontal boundary sags south into the area, high temperatures thursday and friday will pull back a bit into the lower 90s for afternoon highs, although some spots in eastern Colorado may only reach the upper 80s.

Model forecast soundings have some decent deep layer shear and some indication of cape (instability) profiles that could allow for some elevated convection to fire up during the afternoon hours, especially Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evenings. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time, any stronger storms could produce a damaging downburst with lots of lower dry air in place with inverted v type soundings.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1010 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions and light (~7-13 knot) southeasterly to southerly winds will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. A few sporadic wind gusts up to 15-20 knots are possible during peak heating/mixing this afternoon. Aside from scattered diurnal cumulus ~8,000 to 10,000 ft AGL during the afternoon hours, clear skies will otherwise prevail.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ001>004-014>016. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory from 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday to midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for NEZ079>081.