textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures will persist. Highs in the 90s to low 100s are possible the next few days.

- Severe storms are again possible Friday and Saturday afternoons and evenings. Localized wind gusts up to 75 MPH, blowing dust, and hail up to 2 inches are the primary threats.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Upper ridge will gradually build north from the southern to central plains the next couple of days. Another shortwave will move over the ridge and across the area Friday afternoon and Friday night. CAMs show only isolated to widely scattered storms developing in the afternoon, mainly along remnant surface boundaries. What does develop will have some severe potential given an unstable environment with 3000-4000 j/kg of SBCAPE in Kansas and Nebraska and 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. Better forcing appears to occur across eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. HRRR wants to maintain this activity all the way to southwest Nebraska by the evening. Other models want to develop convection overnight as well, probably tied to outflow from the Nebraska storms. Confidence is rather low in the details given the model differences, other than to say there will be some risk for severe storms beginning in the afternoon and continuing through Friday night, with perhaps eastern areas slightly favored given the better instability and expected trajectory of storms in Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards.

On Saturday another shortwave will top the ridge and move across the area out of Colorado in the afternoon and evening. CAMs in fairly good agreement that initiation will occur along the Front Range and Cheyenne Ridge with a slow eastward progression through the afternoon and evening. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in how it will evolve further east in Kansas and Nebraska Saturday night. Both the 3-km NAM and RFS show a general weakening trend after 00z with a rapid decline in instability. Low level jet also does not appear as strong as it has been the past few nights, oriented more west to northwesterly rather than a more favorable southerly direction. So confidence remains somewhat low on severe potential into the evening, but relatively higher in Colorado in the afternoon where there is more model consensus. Shear and instability would be supportive of large hail and damaging winds should storms develop.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Sunday through Thursday:

Starting with the upper pattern, there is a ridge that begins to move in over the Dakotas and Canada. There also are two lows both sitting off of the northern west and northern east coast. With this pattern our flow for the CWA will mainly be zonal and will see some small embedded shortwave troughs throughout the week. These shortwaves will likely bring some higher precipitation chances for the area. Sunday through Thursday looks very similar with the high temperatures sitting at low to high 90s for the majority of the CWA. Looking at the RH values they remain higher than 20% each day. As for the winds they remain mainly out of the south-southeast along with breezy conditions where gusts don't exceed 30 mph. As for storm chances the SFC-CAPE Values are in the range of 1000-2000 J/kg. Moving to the SFC-500mb Shear the range of 30-45 kts. These values would promote storms potential. Given the shortwaves that move through the area along with the storm ingredients there could be the potential of storms. The NCAR AI Convective Hazards Guidance does suggest 5-15% chance of seeing severe hazards.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 500 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

At KMCK...rain and occasional thunderstorms will linger at KMCK for a few hours early this morning before ending. Ceilings should stay VFR, but visibility reductions in rain could be as low as 1-3SM at times. Afterwards, expecting VFR to prevail through the mid to late morning and afternoon. There is a chance for thunderstorms once again this afternoon and evening with brief reductions in ceilings and visibility and gusty winds.

At KGLD...ceilings may approach MVFR early this morning and perhaps a brief light shower with outflow from the storms to the north. Otherwise, expecting VFR to prevail through the TAF period. Widely scattered afternoon and evening storms have a low probability (less than 20%) of impacting the terminal with brief reductions in ceilings and visibility and gusty winds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.