textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire Tri-State area today. Dry and breezy conditions will allow fires to quickly spread. - A strong cold front moves through early Friday morning will drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well.

- A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire Tri-State area for Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures dropping into the low 20s may damage vegetation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1223 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Over the next day or so, a ridge will be pushing east, out of the area as a trough approaches from the northwest. This will allow us to remain clear and with southwesterly flow today. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s in the western CWA to near 90 in the eastern CWA. Dew points will remain pretty stable, which will push RH levels to around 10% for the entire Tri-State area. With the warm temperatures, we expect mixing heights to reach to around 10,000 feet. This will make it more likely that most of the CWA will see gusts at or above 25 MPH for half of the afternoon. This, in addition to all bordering CWAs issuing Red Flag Warnings has prompted us to issuing a CWA Red Flag Warning for this afternoon.

Overnight tonight, around 6-9Z, a cold front will enter from the northwest. This is the accompanying feature of the incoming mid level trough. Winds will rapidly shift, becoming north- northwesterly, and gusting around 30-40 kts, with pockets up to 50 kts being possible. This is hazardous for any smoldering fires as they could flare back up. There is a low chance of blowing dust as this front comes in, but potential for less than 1 mile in blowing dust is only around 2%.

By 14Z, the front will have cleared the CWA, but winds gusting around 30 kts will be common all day. Temperatures will be stunted, topping out in the upper 40s to low 60s. Combined with a 10F increase in dew points behind the front will keep RH values above 25%, eliminating any critical fire weather concerns. In fact, there will be an increase chance of precipitation throughout the day.

Precipitation will primarily be focused in the far northwestern CWA and start off as rain. As the day progresses and more CAA moves in, snow will mix in and by sunset, most areas west of U.S. 385 will only be seeing snow. After 0Z, the precipitation weakens, but most of the CWA will see a 20-30% chance of seeing some light precipitation.

QPF is expected to be light, under 0.1" but this could lead to some slick spots on elevated surfaces come Saturday morning as temperatures drop into the low 20s. Temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s across the CWA has prompted the issuance of a Freeze Watch for the entire area. While the growing season as defined by climatological normals would usually not start until late April in eastern areas and early May in western areas, the unusually warm March and early April has resulted in green-up across the entire area much earlier than those dates. As a result, the growing season for practical purposes has begun and frost and freeze products will be issued for the remainder of the season as needed.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Troughing looks to be overhead Saturday morning, with a 70-90 kt 500- mb jet streak across portions of Iowa and into the Upper-Midwest. These conditions favor a broad surface high pressure system from Montana to Colorado. Northwesterly surface winds would be in place across the forecast area from this setup, providing cool, dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the upper-50s to lower-60s Saturday afternoon, with relative humidities (RH) in the low to mid-teens. While temperatures look to be a bit lower around this time than recent days, LREF guidance does give a 2 in 3 chance for dew points in the single-digits across much of Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas, supporting the low RH forecast. As such, critical fire weather conditions may be in place Saturday afternoon, with forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range across most of the area. NBM guidance yields over a 50% probability for wind gusts to meet or exceed criteria for critical fire weather across most of the region Saturday afternoon, with over an 80% chance across portions of Yuma and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Saturday afternoon is highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, sitting around 15-20%.

Upper-level ridging looks to begin moving into the forecast area Sunday morning. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance favor the ridge overhead through about Tuesday evening. Warmer conditions are favored with this upper-level pattern, with forecast highs in the 70s Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. However, we are still looking to remain dry, with forecast RH values in the upper single- digits to lower-teens Sunday, and low to mid-teens Monday and Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may once again be a concern all three days, though the threat is a bit lower, as gusts look to max out in the 25-30 mph range across the area. NBM guidance suggests a 60-70% probability for wind gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas to meet criteria, but only a 1 in 3 chance that they will exceed 30 mph across most locations in the CWA. Sunday has the highest confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed, but is still only about 5-10% at this time.

Ensemble guidance indicates that upper-level troughing is favored to move into the forecast area Wednesday morning. As this occurs, a mixed mode of fire and severe weather types may be experienced. Winds out ahead of the low currently look to be out of the south to southwest, indicating dry conditions. However, a dryline may exist across portions of the region Wednesday, which could allow thunderstorm development on the moist (east) side of the boundary. GEFS 850-mb mean-spread guidance lacks a strong high pressure across Mexico and Baja California, which may allow for the better moisture return into the area. NBM 75th percentile guidance for dew points show the dryline across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, with up to a 25% chance for precipitation along and north of the I-70 Corridor during the afternoon and evening hours. Even so, LREF guidance suggests that portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas have about a 50-60% chance for RH values meeting critical fire weather criteria. A significant amount of uncertainty continues to surround this event, especially with the timing of the incoming trough. A favored mode for this event will likely need to be established as we approach the event.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for both KGLD and KMCK. Southwesterly winds will dominate, gusting around 20-30 kts tomorrow afternoon, before weakening and becoming more southeasterly after sunset. KGLD looks to see LLWS from the south at 200-400 feet AGL at 35-40 kts early this morning, too.

Before sunrise Friday morning, a cold front will sweep through the area from the north. Winds will rapidly shift and increase in speed. Precipitation may occur behind the front during the day Friday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041- 042. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081.