textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions expected, with high temperatures generally in the 80s and low 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 244 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Currently, there is an upper level ridge over the Rockies, with a trough just east of the Great Lakes region. This pattern is keeping our upper level flow from the northwest and the main jet to the north near the US/Canada border. At the surface, clear skies and relatively light south-southwesterly winds are forecast through the early morning hours.

Sunny, warm and dry weather is expected across the region today and through the remainder of the short term period. Today, the upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners will slowly shift eastward and stall near Central Colorado, keeping our upper level flow from the northwest. This will bring a brief warming trend for the period, with high temperatures reaching the 80s to low 90s across the Tri-State area. Low temperatures will remain in the 50s tonight and tomorrow night, accompanied by light variable winds around 5-10 mph.

A low risk for fire weather exists today for areas west of Kansas Highway 27. A surface front moving in from the northwest early this morning will likely bring relative humidity values down into the upper teens to low 20s. However, winds behind the front should stay around 5-15 mph as well as gusts remaining less than 25 mph, keeping conditions below critical fire weather thresholds. As the front stalls this afternoon, relative humidity is forecast to recover into the upper 40s and 50s heading into the evening.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 101 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Thursday is forecast to start the period with the area under northwest flow aloft. With high pressure at the surface, temperatures should either be slightly cooler in the 70s, or similar to Wednesday in the low 80s. Plenty of sunshine and winds around 5 to 15 mph are forecast underneath the high.

Friday, an upper trough is forecast to push into the Northwestern United States with some slight ridging ahead in the Plains. This should lead to a slightly warmer day with highs likely in the 80s. With low pressure deepening ahead of the upper trough over the High Plains, winds should be a bit stronger around 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. May have to keep an eye out for critical fire weather conditions near the Tri-State border as drier air tries to push in from the west. However, the air is forecast to already be dry enough that we shouldn't see precipitation, even with the advancing features. Saturday should be fairly similar to Friday with the upper trough forecast to stall over the High Plains while deepening in the Western United States. If temperatures are a bit warmer though, critical fire weather conditions could develop for counties along the Colorado border with RH dipping more into the teens.

Sunday and beyond gets a little less clear as there is a fair amount of spread in how deep the upper trough becomes and how quickly it pushes through the area. For now, the forecast has the area cooling going into the beginning of the week with a cold front pushing through. Precipitation chances are also forecast to increase with mid to high level moisture being pulled in from the southwest ahead of the upper trough. If precipitation did occur, it would likely be rain and fairly light with dry low levels.

That all being said, the GEFS and ECMWF ENS both show fairly equal chances for a slower and faster trough progression. The slower progression could lead increased precipitation chances with more time to pull in gulf moisture and have a low sit over the area. Severe weather chances would also be possible. On the flip side, the slower trough would give the area much cooler temperatures. There is even a 10% chance for freezing temperatures and snow. While both of these scenarios would likely be more impactful, for now am sticking with a more median solution which seems to verify more often in situations like this. We'll have to watch and see how this next big system develops.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 514 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period. Expect light winds around 5-10 kts. Winds are forecast to start out northwesterly then shift to the east then to the southeast through the day time hours.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.