textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to record high temperatures are possible across portions of the area on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. A white Christmas is unlikely.

- Cooling trend this weekend with near-average temperatures on Sunday followed by a warming/moderating trend early next week.

- 20% chance of rain/snow across the northwest portion of the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Little to no accumulation currently forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 127 AM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

This morning, Norton and Graham counties could see some patchy freezing fog. However, this fog is forecast to remain east, and out of the counties. If it does move in, dense freezing fog would be likely.

Today, a disorganized low will move over the CWA. Pretty weak winds and clearing skies are expected as elevated dry air moves in and temperatures rapidly rise. This will allow temperatures to quickly warm into the 70s for most of the area with only the far eastern CWA potentially staying in the 60s. REFS is showing a corridor of greater than 50% chance of 75 degree southwest of Wray, CO to Oakley, KS and northeast of a line from Seibert, CO to Tribune, KS. However, there is less than a 5% chance temperatures will warm to 80 degrees. This will put us within range of setting more record high temperatures. More information about the record temperatures can be found in the Climate section below.

With the high temperatures being so warm and no moisture inflow expected, RH values will drop into the teens for part of the area. The driest locations look to be along and west of KS 27, where RH values look to dry into the low to mid teens. However, with the low moving over the CWA, weak winds will prevent any fire weather concerns.

Tonight, the aforementioned low looks to remain stationary over the southern Colorado/Kansas border, which should prevent much advection from occurring. The sky should remain mostly clear, unless fog or low stratus forms. The clear skies and light winds will let temperatures drop into the 30s, nearing saturation east of U.S. 83. This would be the area most likely to see fog formation, and is also the most likely place to see temperatures drop below freezing. As it stands, there is a 10-15% chance of patchy fog in the the far eastern CWA Christmas morning. Overall, Christmas Eve night will be a great night for flying, so Santa shouldn't have any issues making his rounds!

Don't expect a white, snowy Christmas this year as record high temperatures are expected and it'll be closer to Christmas in July. The low looks to slowly start moving east during the day, which will lead to some easterly, downsloping winds. Temperatures are expected to mimic Wednesday's highs, within a few degrees. REFS temperature probabilities show an even stronger signal for temperatures of at least 75 degrees. What is a bit different is some more moist air looks to advect into the region from the southern CONUS and mix down from the mid-levels while winds will be slightly stronger. With this, RH values are expected to only drop into the low 20s. Winds are a bit funkier and are very dependent on where the low is. The northeastern CWA, where the lingering 850 mb trough is, winds will be weak and variable. In the southwestern CWA, where the low will have exited, westerly winds sustained around 10-15 kts with gusts ranging from 15-25 kts are expected. Guidance is staying the course and showing the low remaining on the more southerly course, keeping the strongest winds south of the CWA. There is still a 10% chance it takes a northerly course, which will lead to gusts up around 30-35 kts.

Christmas night, a weak ridge will be pushing in from the southwest. This is forecast to keep temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s, with warmer temperatures in the southern CWA.

Early Friday morning, either a ridge or a weak high will move over the CWA in the morning before a trough pushes in from the northwest. This provides another chance at record high temperatures, but this time the warmer temperatures will be in the eastern CWA. Currently, NBM is showing highs will be right around 70 for most of the area with the far western portions of the CWA remaining in the mid 60s. Guidance is showing a 15% chance that the trough and ridge create a 25-30 kts 850 mb LLJ, in which case 25-30 kts gusts could mix down to the surface.

Friday night, the trough looks to fully push into the CWA which will eventually lead to northwesterly winds by sunrise. Temperatures will be cooling as the cold front/northwesterly winds move in. Temperatures in the northwestern CWA will drop to around freezing while the southeastern CWA may remain around 40.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 142 AM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Longwave troughing across the western CONUS is forecast to be ongoing starting the extended period Saturday leading to another day of above normal temperatures for the area. High temperatures are again forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. If troughing can remain deep enough and winds can remain westerly would not be surprised if temperature come up a few degrees if that signal does continue.

The main focus currently for the extended is with a modest cold front moving through anytime from Saturday evening to Sunday morning. GEFS still continues to be quicker with the front with the Saturday evening timing and the ECMWF-AIFS and ECMWF moves it through Sunday morning. The main change that is seen with the front is there may be the potential for light rain or snow behind the frontal passage. GFS and ECMWF cross section analysis both show a more moist and deep atmospheric profiles. Weak omega is seen in the mid levels and dendritic growth zone of the GFS from the effects of the trough and additional omega is seen near the surface from effects of the cold front. Overall little to rain/snow amounts are currently anticipated but interestingly enough the ECMWF does show some surface CAPE in soundings which may support some localized dusting to perhaps light accumulation. GFS also does show some seeder feeder potential as well. Will be interesting to see if this trend towards precipitation will hold. The biggest potential hazard especially if we do get precipitation is with flash freeze potential with the front as 850mb temperatures fall to around minus 7C. Current ground temperatures are in the upper 30s to low 40s so will be something that will need to be watched closely. The current favored area for rain/snow is across Yuma, Kit Carson, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) counties but is completely plausible it can spread a little further east as well. High temperatures for the day Sunday have come down quite a bit into the mid 30s for highs.

The cool down does look to be short lived as ridging is forecast to return to the western CONUS and a developing system across the Baja Peninsula leads to warm air advection into the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 400 AM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

VFR conditions currently remain forecast for this TAF period. There is the potential for some patchy fog around MCK from 13-15Z due to light winds and lowering dew point depressions this morning; but overall anticipating any reduction in visibility to range from 6-9SM. There is a 10% chance that if fog does develop it could fall to MVFR and less than 5% chance of visibility falling to 1/2SM. Be aware of some light icing should any fog form as temperatures are below freezing. After this winds are forecast to continue to remain light and variable with the exception of GLD where a period of WNW winds are forecast to occur before becoming more variable.

CLIMATE

Issued at 142 AM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Well above average temperatures will persist through the remainder of the week. Some locations may approach monthly (December)record highs. For reference, average highs this time of year are ~40F.

================================ Record Highs for December 24 ================================ Burlington.........79 in 1955 current forecast....76 Goodland...........77 in 1955 current forecast....75 McCook.............74 in 1964 current forecast.... 69 Hill City..........67 in 2021 current forecast.... 68

================================ Record Warmest Lows December 24 ================================ Burlington.........37 in 1971 Goodland...........32 in 1940 McCook.............33 in 2024 Hill City..........34 in 1940

================================ Record Highs for December 25 ================================ Burlington.........67 in 1929 current forecast....73 Goodland...........74 in 1950 current forecast....73 McCook.............70 in 1929 current forecast....61 Hill City..........76 in 1950 current forecast....62

================================ Record Highs for December 26 ================================ Burlington.........77 in 1980 current forecast....67 Goodland...........69 in 2005 current forecast....69 McCook.............68 in 2008 current forecast....67 Hill City..........73 in 2021 current forecast....69

================================ Monthly (December) Record Highs ================================ Burlington.........81 in 1939 Goodland...........83 in 1964 McCook.............81 in 1964 Hill City..........83 in 1964

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.