textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Saturday, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of the area due to the possibility dry conditions and strong winds.

- Wind gusts greater than 45 mph remain possible through Sunday, with a 30 percent chance for wind gusts around 60 mph over parts of eastern Colorado.

- A fast moving system brings a chance for light snow Sunday night into Monday morning across the tri-state region. The most likely scenario is for a dusting of snowfall if snow does occur, with a low chance (10%) for greater than 1" of snow accumulation.

UPDATE

Issued at 607 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

The remainder of the Red Flag Warning for today has been allowed to expire. Wind gusts of 35-50 mph are still forecast through the night. The Fire Weather Watch for Saturday still remains in place currently.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Large scale amplified flow is in place across the CONUS with the High Plains/tri-state region under sharp north-northwest flow between troughing in the east and ridging along the western US. Strong unidirectional flow (50-60kt) in the 850-700MB layer is still in place and with deep mixing (up to the 700 MB layer) tapping into the higher winds and ave resulted in higher wind gusts around or higher than 70 mph earlier in the afternoon. Blowing dust impacts have been reported with highly variable conditions in eastern Colorado and parts of northwest KS, though some of the larger plumes have trended to become more elevated with deeper mixing (less surface based impacts). Very dry air combined with the winds have also led to critical fire weather conditions across much of the region today despite colder temperatures in the 30s (see Fire section for details). A Blowing Dust Warning is also in effect for counties impacted by blowing dust and variable travel impacts. The strongest 700MB flow is in the process of decreasing, and mixing heights decrease through 5pm, so there should be a gradual decreasing trend in maximum wind and warning impacts through sunset ending as low levels begin to decouple.

Sunday will be a day to watch for winds and fire weather again. Winds aloft are forecast in the 40-45kt range for most areas through the day, with a 50kt 850-700MB wind max possibly lingering over eastern ND during the morning hours. Mixing heights are not shown to be as deep as today, but as the sun rises there may be a window between 9am-Noon in the eastern plains of CO, and NBM probs are 30% for marginal warning impacts (a few gusts to 60 mph). The more common impacts will be gusts 40 to 55 mph across the region.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

The blocky large scale pattern with west coast ridging and eastern US troughing/upper low persists into next week. This keeps persistent northwest flow aloft across our region, with progressive shortwave troughs rotating through that flow generally bringing periods of lee troughing or frontal passages. This results in day to day variations in temperatures, periods of winds, and downsloping generally advecting drier air into our region limiting precipitation potential.

The next period of interest would be Sunday night into Monday morning when ensembles are showing a stronger negatively titled shortwave rotating closer to our region interacting with a quasi- stationary baroclinic zone. Due to the amount of dry air and limited window for moisture advection QPF should be limited. At the same time, there is a signal for increasing 700 MB frontogenesis along the baroclinic zone that could support mesoscale banding and some potential for light snow accumulations (dusting to 1"). Currently the probability for greater than 0.1" of snow have increased to the 50% range), however the probabilities for 1"+ are lower (10%). Looking at individual members of ECMWF/GEFS there are a few outliers trying to resolve the potential for 2-3" totals, but considering the direction this shortwave is coming from and drier air ahead of it these are going to be highly conditional on more organized banding and slower wave passage.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1003 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both terminals. That being said, there is the possibility of ceilings around 2500ft and a few flurries between about 12-17Z. The overall chance is less than 20%, so haven't included it at this time. Low level wind shear is forecast over the terminals through 13-14Z as winds around 200-500ft are forecast to strengthen to around 40-45kts again. Otherwise, winds near the surface should remain form the northwest through the day with speeds around 20-25 kts and gusts 30-40 kts. Winds are forecast to lighten a bit going into the late afternoon hours, before decreasing to 10 kts or less from west around sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Red Flag Warning and related conditions continues this afternoon, with very high GFDI values across western locations (90-105) and values greater than 60 across the rest of the region. Temperatures are cooler which has kept RH values a little higher in some areas, but Tds well below zero have also resulted in RH values near 10% where high wind conditions (gusts greater than 60 mph) have been occurring. Trends should improve with decreasing winds and cooling low levels at sunset lining up with the timing of the current warning expiration.

On Sunday: Very low Tds are forecast (negative teens) and while temperatures will be cool, RH values near or lower than 15% are likely at least for western locations. Farther east and south RH values are currently more marginal. Winds across the region will not be as extreme as today, but frequent gusts 40-55 mph are likely (highest values in the west). Parts of the Fire Weather Watch will be considered for upgrade/reevaluated as the current event ends this evening, with less confidence in warning conditions in some parts of the watch.

On Tuesday: Warmer temperatures in the 50s (potential for low 60s) and dry air once again arriving in a downslope pattern may allow for decreasing RH values to around 15% once again. However, gradient locally in the tri-state region is much lower during the time of peak mixing and winds aloft are not as high limiting the potential for critical fire weather conditions. It is still a period to watch as another cold front does arrive during the later part of the may or night which may bring increasing winds (more likely after RH has recovered).

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Saturday through Saturday afternoon for KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM MST Saturday through Saturday afternoon for COZ252>254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Saturday through Saturday afternoon for NEZ079-080.