textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire Weather Watch in effect Thursday for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in CO and Sherman, Wallace and Greeley counties in Kansas.

- A few storms could develop over portions of the area Thursday evening and Thursday night, mainly along and east of Highway 83. A severe thunderstorm capable of producing large hail and damaging winds is possible, should storms develop.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1148 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Today-Tonight: Stratus and fog in eastern portions of the area this morning has since lifted and scattered out. Expect light/variable winds and mostly clear skies for the rest of the day, with highs in the lower-mid 60s. Winds will shift to the S at ~10 mph this evening and overnight, with Thu morning lows in the 30's.

Thursday: An upper level trough presently moving ashore the Pacific Northwest will dig SE-SSE across the Intermountain West during the day on Thu, then track E across the 4-Corners Thu night. An associated lee cyclone developing in eastern Colorado during the day on Thu will remain near-stationary and gradually deepen Thu night, as the aforementioned upper trough advances east across the 4-Corners. S to SSW low-level flow will strengthen over the region during the day, as the MSLP-850 mb height gradient tightens on the eastern periphery of the developing lee cyclone. A sharp, north-south or SSW-NNE oriented dryline will evolve in vicinity of the CO-KS border during the day on Thu. A fair amount of uncertainty exists w/regard to the eastern-most extent of the dryline. Given that the lee cyclone is anticipated to be anchored in CO during the day, it may be difficult for the dryline to progress east of Hwy 27/Hwy 25 prior to sunset. Breezy SSW-SW winds and very low RH behind the dryline may foster critical fire weather conditions. In eastern CO, where the MSLP gradient will be weak in vicinity of the low, wind gusts may struggle to exceed 25 mph, though.. downward momentum transport assoc/w deep vertical mixing could assist to some degree (~25 knot flow at the top of the mixed layer). In western KS, where relatively stronger (25-35 knot) low-level flow will be present and S to SW winds will no doubt be breezier, the location of the dryline (and considerably drier airmass) will be the determining factor w/regard to whether or not critical fire weather conditions are observed.

Thursday Night: A conditional potential for a severe storm will exist over eastern portions of the area Thu evening/night. Moisture advection assoc/w a strengthening southerly nocturnal low-level jet -- beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer (700-500 mb lapse rates ~8 C/km) -- will result in marginal to moderate nocturnal destabilization (~1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE). Upper level forcing assoc/w the approaching upper wave (in vicinity of the 4-Corners) will remain well west/upstream of the Tri-State Area. At present, it seems unlikely that low-level forcing will be sufficient to overcome a pronounced cap in place over the region. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of high-resolution guidance are consistent with this line of thinking (i.e. none indicate appreciable convective development in the Goodland CWA). Expect lows ranging from the lower 30's (northeast CO) to mid-upper 40's (east of Hwy 283).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 140 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

A deep 500-mb trough is expected over the Western United States Friday morning. A shortwave trough and modest 70-90 kt jet streak embedded in this flow looks to be approaching the forecast area during the early morning hours, and be overhead by late morning to early afternoon. An attendant surface low pressure to this system is forecast to be as far east as South-Central Nebraska and North- Central Kansas. A dryline looks to be attached to this system, extending southward from the central low. Considering how far east the low is forecasted to be by the early afternoon, a severe weather event in our forecast region from this system is improbable. NBM and LREF ensemble guidance is in agreement with this assessment, as even 95th percentile solutions show the leading edge of the dryline east of the CWA by late morning. As such, the probability for severe weather in the forecast region Friday is less than 5%.

Confidence in a critical fire weather event Friday afternoon also continues to decrease, as model guidance suggests the cold front in association with the surface low to already be in the Kansas-27 Corridor by late morning. LREF ensemble guidance indicates about a 10% chance or less for mid-teen RH values to reach portions of Wichita County in Kansas, and even less of a chance for far West- Central Kansas and Eastern Colorado. The favored scenario, with at least 70% confidence at this time, is increasingly cooler conditions upon frontal passage, with portions of Northwest Kansas east of Highway 25 potentially reaching the upper-50s to mid-60s before cooling begins. Precipitation is also a possibility behind the front. Rain may be favored during the afternoon and into portions of the evening, though a transition into snow or a wintry mix seems possible, as current forecast lows are in the 20s Friday night. This transition to wintry precipitation may occur as early as the mid to late-afternoon for Northeast Colorado, migrating southeast throughout the evening and night hours.

A secluded, stationary 500-mb low looks to set up across the Southwest United States and Baja California Saturday, with a highly perturbed jet stream across the Northern United States and Southern Canada. Ridging out ahead of the secluded low along with shortwave systems in the jet stream could influence weather conditions across the CWA through Monday. Warm, dry conditions are currently forecast during this period, as surface winds are favored to become westerly to southwesterly Saturday afternoon and remain into Monday. Saturday is forecast to have highs in the mid to upper-50s, with RH values in the upper-teens to lower-20s across the CWA. Critical fire weather is not yet a major concern for Saturday, as neither RH nor wind gusts have met criteria for the hazard. Sunday and Monday are forecast to be even warmer and drier, with highs in the upper-60s to low-70s, and mid to upper-70s respectively, and RH values in the mid to upper-teens across the CWA both days. Critical fire weather may be more of a concern Sunday and Monday as well, though NBM guidance still shows wind gusts struggling to meet critical fire weather criteria. Even 75th percentile scenarios for both days show wind gusts reaching criteria only across portions of Eastern Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed either day rests around 5-10%.

The secluded low may begin to be absorbed back into the jet stream flow Monday afternoon and evening, but exact timing is uncertain. However, once this system begins to move eastward again, portions of the CWA may receive precipitation. Rain, and potentially thunderstorms, would be possible for portions of Western Kansas as this takes place. Additionally, a cold front may come through sometime Tuesday evening or night. If the storm producing the precipitation can mix with the cold front at just the right time, we may experience another transition to snow or a wintry mix Tuesday night. Most precipitation is forecast to clear up by Wednesday afternoon, with forecast highs currently in the upper-40s and low- 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 415 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR expected to prevail through this evening and into the early overnight period at both KGLD and KMCK. Towards 10-12z, low clouds and fog will develop across the area once again. A brief period of IFR to VLIFR conditions will be possible due to reduced visibilities and low ceilings through about 14-16z. After that time, a return to VFR is expected, though a modest increase in surface winds out of the south to southeast will develop by 16-18z, with gusts up to 25kts through the remainder of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for KSZ013-027-041. CO...Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for COZ253-254. NE...None.