textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog and patchy dense fog potential through the morning and possibly again tonight.

- Cooler temperatures continue today.

- Chances for thunderstorms through Wednesday morning, and again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. An isolated instance or two of large hail possible into the morning and again Wednesday night. Severe chances are very low however.

- Warming back towards the 100s over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Northwest surface and mid level flow is in place across the area. An initial shortwave coming off of the Rockies is leading to some showers and weak storms across eastern Colorado currently. A 700mb jet is forecast to develop this evening and begin interacting with this shortwave which is forecast to lead to the development of better coverage of showers and storms mainly along and east of a Dundy to Gove county line. Overall, am anticipating sub severe storms with only lightning and downpours the primary hazards due to minimal MUCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg and meager 700-500 mb lapse rates of around 7 c/km and worse 850-799mb lapse rates of 4-5 c/km. I can't completely rule out a brief instance or two of quarter size hail as storms form if we can get a strong enough of an updraft to occur. Confidence in severe weather occurring is currently less than 15%.

Fog is also forecast to develop across the majority of the area as well due to light winds and low dew point depressions. Currently am not overall concerned about widespread dense fog due to low surface to 1km mixing ratios but still can't rule out some patchy areas of half mile or less visibilities. The HRRR and LAMP visibility guidance has consistently been highlighting eastern Colorado for dense fog which is interesting to say the least as typical more moist guidance is less bullish on dense fog. Overall confidence in dense fog is currently around 20% at this time with confidence in fog of 2- 6sm around 80%.

A surface high is forecast to move into the area from the north providing subsidence and ending convective chances through the morning and into the afternoon hours. RAP cross sections continues to have saturated low levels in place across most of the area into the early afternoon and into the late afternoon for northeast portions of the area along with weak omega around -1 microbars along with a little surface base CAPE which suggests that drizzle or very light showers may continue. Due to the concerns of cloud cover have lowered high temperatures for the day as most guidance has gotten on that same trend as well. Wednesday evening and overnight am watching another 700mb shortwave develop along with a nose of a 700mb jet in southern portions of the area. Showers and storms are again forecast to develop along these features. There are discrepancies on how far north the low level jet sets up which will determine if the CWA is impacted by these storms. Should the storms develop in our area the overall environment is better than what it is tonight with more MUCAPE similar shear and better lapse rates that would support hail of 1-1.5 inches. Should these storms form it would not be until around 10pm mountain and possibly continue through the night. North of the storms have another concern for fog development. Surface to 1km mixing ratios are higher so have bit of a more concern for a better coverage of fog and perhaps dense fog.

Thursday is forecast to be a bit warmer as a mid level high begins to develop across the southwestern CONUS and expand up into southern portions of the forecast area. High temperatures for the day are currently forecast in the low to mid 90s across the area. Current forecast for most of the day is too remain dry with the exception of the far southeast portion of the CWA in closer proximity to a 700mb jet forming during the late afternoon. Do notice a subtle disturbance is noted upstream across the Nebraska Panhandle where some guidance does indicate some storm development moving to the south towards the area. Our 850mb low level jet is forecast to increase which does bring some hints that perhaps these storms could survive down into the Nebraska counties in our CWA. If this were to be the case then severe weather would become a concern with some supercell potential given the magnitude of shear and CAPE being depicted in guidance. This is currently a low probability scenario but will be something that will need to be monitored in upcoming shifts.

Friday, the ridge continues to amplify leading to a continued warming of temperatures into the mid to upper 90s along with dry conditions. NAM surface to 30mb AGL dew points continues to suggests that moist air remains across the area which if so could help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than currently forecast. Winds are currently forecast to be around 10-15 mph and with the lack of any jets aloft even if the deepest of mixing could occur and drier air could mix down fire weather conditions would remain minimal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be unseasonably warm for the county warning area (CWA). A persistent weak upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the region Saturday through early next week. High temperatures are forecast to be in the high 90s to 100s Saturday through Monday. Tuesday is looking slightly cooler but high temperatures are still forecast to be in the 90s for the CWA.

Fire weather potential will be something to monitor for throughout the week. Currently, fuels are dry throughout the entire CWA. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low 20s for the western CWA Saturday and slowly creep down to the mid to high teens through Monday. Afternoon wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible for the western CWA, but lowest RH values and strongest wind gusts are not forecast to coincide. A few hours of critical fire weather conditions could still be possible given the dry fuels and unseasonably warm temperatures.

Tuesday, a ridge building west of the Rocky Mountain will help transition our region to more of a northwest upper-level flow. We could see some showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday due to the increased upper-level support from a weak jet streak overhead. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 30-40% for the CWA. Models are in disagreement on where and when the ridge west of the Rocky Mountains will set up after Tuesday. If it ends up setting up over the Tri-State area, we could have another round of unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1047 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Light upslope winds will result in the MVFR ceilings persisting well into the afternoon at both KGLD and KMCK. A return to VFR is expected around 22-23z. Tonight, the low ceilings will return to both terminal by around 09z and continue through Thursday morning. A period of reduced visibility in fog is also possible around sunrise, especially at KGLD.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.