textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog may develop over portions of the area this morning. Locations along/north of I-70 are most at-risk.

- Breezy SE to S winds may gust up to 45 mph, at times, late this evening into Wednesday.

- Widespread moderate to locally heavy rain possible Wednesday evening into Thursday. WPC includes most of the CWA within a Slight Risk (level 1/4) of isolated nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

No significant change to prior forecast reasoning/expectations.

Patchy fog is expected to develop around or shortly before sunrise this morning. Locations along/north of I-70 are most at- risk. Fog, where present, will lift/scatter by mid-late morning (~15-17Z). Although the region will become placed underneath ridging of a high pressure aloft emerging over the Southern Plains through at least this evening, a bit of vorticity advection streaming northeastward off a mid/upper level trough over the southwestern US gradually introduces a low (15-30%) chance of light passing showers today/tonight, mainly along and west of Hwy 83, bringing anywhere from a trace to 0.20 of an inch.

Meanwhile, a pressure gradient tightens, resulting from a surface high pressure over the Plains and an area of lowering heights over the Rockies in association with an approaching trough aloft; southeasterly to southerly winds increase considerably tonight into Wed, especially along/west of route 83, where winds could reach around 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties.

Chances of rain minimize through the first half Wednesday before gradually increasing from a low to medium (20-50%) chance during the afternoon hours to as much as a medium to likely (50-90%) chance by early Thursday morning as forcing aloft and lower/mid-level moisture increases; PWAT values could reach 1.3-1.6 in. by Wednesday evening, which is above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for this time of year. At this time, we generally anticipate rain totals by Thursday morning to range around 0.30-0.80 of in. WPC has included most of the CWA within a Slight Risk (level 1/4) of isolated nuisance ponding and flooding though isolated flash flooding is possible as well. At this time, lapse rates, instability and cloud cover look to be overall not satisfactory to support severe weather on Wednesday. Yet, depending on the time of arrival, a few thunderstorms along the leading edge of precipitation could be stronger, with gusts up to 40+ mph and small hail (< 1 inch), followed by scattered to numerous light to moderate, isolated heavy, showers and additional thunderstorms.

Otherwise, warm air advection ahead of the shortwave trough increases high temperatures in the low/mid 70s today and tomorrow up to the mid/upper 70s on Wednesday. Overnight lows rise from the low/mid 50s along/north I-70 (mid/upper 50s further south) tonight to mid/upper 50s tomorrow night and upper 50s/low 60s Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 302 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Synoptically, starting Thursday morning, an upper-level ridge is forecast to be positioned along the Southern US / Gulf border. Ensemble guidance and deterministic models place the ridge axis along the Missouri River Valley region, establishing southwesterly upper level flow across the Tri-State Area. In addition to the ridge to the south, both the GFS and Canadian-NH bring a shortwave through early Thursday morning, accompanied by an associated vorticity maximum, and jet streak. Additional shortwaves may move through the region during the latter part of the period as the ridge begins to shift westward.

High temperatures for the week are forecast to mainly in the 70s. OVer the weekend, expect temperatures to briefly warm into the low to mid 80s across the majority of the CWA. Sustained winds and gusts are forecast to stay under 25 mph, prevailing mainly out of the south to southeast. Friday looks to be the windiest, with gusts up to 20 mph.

Precipitation chances will be higher late in the week before tapering off over the weekend. As the shortwave move through early Thursday morning, Probabilities of Precipitation (PoPs) are currently forecast at 60-80% for most of the Tri-State area as a surface low with an associated boundary/front passes through. For Friday, guidance hints at a surface low developing out of Colorado; however, model agreement varies, with the ECMWF and GFS showing the low while the Canadian and ensemble members, like the LREF, do not. Where this low develops and tracks will impact Friday and potentially Saturday morning PoPs. Friday's PoPs are forecast in the 20-50% range, potentially ending early Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon through Monday PoPs remain around 15-30% each afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

GLD: Current and recent runs of the HRRR and RAP suggest that IFR to LIFR stratus and/or fog will rapidly develop around, or shortly before, sunrise (10-12Z) and that said conditions will be fairly short-lived, lifting/scattering to VFR a few hours after sunrise (~15Z).. with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period. Light ESE winds will veer to the SE and increase to 10-15 knots shortly after sunrise. Winds will further veer to the SSE or S and increase to 15-20 knots with gusts to ~25 knots by late morning and persist through the afternoon. S winds may further increase to 20-25 knots with gusts to 30-35 knots late this evening into Wed morning.

MCK: LIFR ceilings will prevail through most of the morning. Expect gradual improvement to IFR-MVFR during the late morning to early afternoon and further improvement to VFR during the early-mid afternoon (~18-21Z), with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period. 5 knot NE-ENE winds will veer to the ESE and increase to 12-16 knots during the late morning to early afternoon, further veering to the SE and increasing to 15-20 knots during the mid-late afternoon. Breezy SE winds are expected to persist through the remainder of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.