textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- 5-10% chance of an isolated storm this afternoon.

- A brief warmup today and Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- Afternoon and evening storms will return to the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe weather possible Tuesday.

- Highs in the 70s are expected from Wednesday onwards.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 220 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Mainly clear skies are currently present across the area with the exception of of some mid level clouds traversing across Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado due to a subtle 500 mb shortwave towards the state line where some sprinkles at best are possible as this moves into NW Kansas through the morning hours. Am also watching the potential for fog development over the next few hours as well due to the clear skies, light winds and recently saturated boundary layer due to the rain earlier. Am a little iffy on the coverage of the fog as a surface trough is currently moving through the area which is shifting winds to the SSW which is climatologically inclined to preclude fog development. The highest confidence in fog is currently across Norton, Graham, Decatur and eastern portions of Red Willow as winds remain from the E to ESE, some dense fog can't be ruled out across that area as well but should be short lived as the trough continues to move through. Additional patchy fog is also possible down through Cheyenne county Colorado especially near sunrise due to little dew point depressions so will leave the fog mention that was inherited in place.

For the rest of the day, anticipating temperatures to quickly warm up this morning with high temperatures forecast in the mid 80s across the majority of the area. In response to the surface trough a weak 850 mb jet is forecast to move across the area leading to breezy sustained winds around 15-20 mph with some gusts approaching 25 mph through the afternoon. As the trough continues to move to the east winds will then shift to the SSE as moisture advection returns which will also cause a re intensification of the 850mb jet continuing the breezy winds. Depending on the speed of the trough a weak convergence zone may set up across eastern portions of the area which may lead to an isolated storm to develop at this time this seems to be unlikely (less than 5%). A slightly better potential for isolated storm development may be from convective temperatures being breached this afternoon as most guidance has them around the current forecast high temperatures. If a storm were to form do think it would be relatively short lived with wind shear around 15-20 knots and lapse rates around 7.0 c/km which would support a marginal severe storm at best but confidence in storms developing in the first place is around 10% with the severe threat less than 5%.

As mentioned above moisture advection will continue through the night with the breezy SSE winds continuing. Will need to again keep an eye on fog potential but the start of a surface low will begin to increase cloud cover and the continued breezy winds will be in place so stratus may be the most likely outcome of this.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025

The active pattern will continue through the long-term. Tuesday afternoon/evening, a potent low and cold front are projected to fire off fairly widespread storms across the area. SPC has already thrown out a day 3 Marginal severe weather outlook for most of the area, accounting for the thunderstorm potential. Currently, it looks like storms will fire near the Colorado border and move off to the east throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Hail looks to be the main threat so far, but we cannot rule out any threats at this point.

Precipitation could continue Wednesday as an upper-level low moves over the area. This will lead to cloud cover and cooler temperatures, likely in the low to mid 70s. Generally, temperatures look to remain in the 70s for the rest of the long term with low cooling into the 50s with the eastern CWA potentially seeing upper 40s later in the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025

The only concern at the airfields the next 24 hours will be potential for patchy fog early Monday morning. Convective allowing models ("CAMs") argue this would occur east of both terminals, however mostly clear skies and light winds offering efficient radiational cooling conditions gives pause to dismissing the risk. If winds stay up in the 5-7 kt range from the southwest as some guidance suggests, the combination of dry advection and weak downsloping may prevent its development, but we're not banking on that. Given the clear skies, we maintained the hint at shallow fog at both TAF sites and even included a tempo for MVFR visibility and IFR ceilings at MCK where dewpoint depressions are already less than 3 degrees.

Late morning, the onset of modestly deep mixing will lead to an abrupt uptick in southerly winds, which will gust 20 kt or higher at times through the afternoon. As those winds ease during the evening, a few mid to high clouds will spill in from the west as the next weathermaker brews in the Four Corners Region.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.