textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A bit on the warm side with highs in the 80s and low 90s through the weekend. - Increased fire weather concerns are forecast Friday and Saturday, especially for counties along the Colorado border. Relative humidity may drop into the teens with gusts around 30-35 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 258 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

This afternoon's satellite imagery and upper-air analysis shows the broad ridge over the western half of the conus beginning its slight amplification as a low deepens over the southwestern Canadian provinces. The northern stream jet still remains well north of the area, and will remain north of the area as northwest flow aloft transitions back to southwest flow by Saturday afternoon. In addition, the southern stream jet also remains well south of the area over the Desert Southwest before dipping down into Texas and Mexico. This places the Tri-State area between with no real upper level support over the region. At the surface, weak troughing over eastern Colorado and a surface high positioned over the mid-Arkansas River Valley has led to a bit tighter gradient over western Kansas resulting in winds in the 10-15 mph range today with gusts up to 25 mph. These breezy winds are helping to mix down drier air so have seen relative humidities dropping below 25 percent for most of the forecast area. The lowest relative humidity values are currently ongoing in northeast Colorado where readings have fallen into the teens; however, this area also resides along the trough axis so winds are lighter at 5 to 10 mph helping to keep fire weather conditions in check.

The surface low associated with the PacNW trough will quickly organize and deepen by tomorrow morning with troughing becoming more pronounced along the lee side of the Rockies. This low will stay north over southern Canada as surface high pressure moves east in response to Hurricane Isaias moves inland. This will keep a decent SW to NE gradient over Kansas the next several days. As such temperatures will remain on the warm side along with breezy to gusty southerly winds and dry conditions. Steep lapse rates tomorrow and again on Saturday, and increasing winds, will allow for efficient mixing in the lower atmosphere during the afternoon hours. With relative humidity already falling into the mid 20s to upper teens this afternoon, expect even lower relative humidities to develop tomorrow, especially for forecast counties generally west of Hwy 25. A similar set-up looks to evolve on Saturday. This will allow for near critical to critical fire weather conditions to evolve mainly for the forecast counties along the CO/KS/NE border. However, depending on where the trough axis sets up...this could impact where the strongest winds will develop.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 254 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

On Sunday, we can expect slight ridging over the area. The region will likely be between the remnants of Hurricane Isaias and a large trough over the western United States. With this setup we will likely be above average temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Winds are forecast to be from the southwest at 15 to 20 mph. With the upper-level southwest flow, a few clouds should pass over the area with the mid- to upper-level moisture moving through.

For Monday through Thursday, the upper-level trough swings through from the southwest that could potentially bring in a cold front Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. This pattern should bring chances of showers into the area. with the chances of showers, it is unclear exactly where and when these showers will be. However, the showers will likely be light over the area. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and then 60s. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the cold front as it could either slow down or speed up. If the cold front slows down, we could expect showers to be later in Thursday with warmer temperatures. However, if the cold front speeds up we will have showers much earlier than expected with the majority of the showers happening on Wednesday and cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 540 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. 10-15 knot SSW winds this evening and overnight will increase to 14-18 knots late Friday morning (~15-18Z), further increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots during the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.