textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is possible Saturday morning along and east of KS 25.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions forecast Saturday through Monday. Winds are forecast to be the strongest on Saturday.

- Above average highs expected late this week through early next week.

- A winter system looks to impact the Tri-State area sometime between Tuesday and Friday evening. Light rain and snow are forecast, though there are some indications for a few inches of snowfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 233 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Today, as an 850 mb high moves out of the Rockies and over the Northern Plains, we can expect a weak backdoor cold front. This will give us northeasterly and southeasterly flow in the low levels and surface during the day, keeping temperatures in low to mid 60s. Similar to last night, we have pretty clear skies, but with the cooler temperatures during the day, overnight temperatures will not have much issue cooling to around 30.

Tomorrow, the upper-level ridge that's been "protecting" us will finally fizzle as a low over over Baja California slowly shifts the jet stream south. This will allow for an 850 mb low in southern Canada to extend a trough over the High Plains. There will still be an 850 mb high over the Texas Gulf coast, feeding warm air into the region, which will be brought further north, thanks to the trough.

In the early morning hours, we should see southeasterly flow across the eastern CWA. This has a 20-25% chance of advecting in enough moisture that patchy fog forms. As temperatures drop to slightly below freezing, it's entirely possible that patchy freezing fog occurs. If freezing fog occurs, elevated surfaces may become slick. Most likely timing for fog would be between 9-15Z, along and east of KS 25. However, upper-level cloud cover or winds being more southerly could prevent any fog from forming at all.

An interesting front will occur from the aforementioned trough axis. Winds will shift to become northwesterly with the FROPA, synoptically the setup for a cold front. However, thanks to a combination of the WAA and some compressional heating, temperatures behind the front will be warmer. Behind the front, 850 mb temperatures across the western half of the CWA to warm into the 14- 17C range. Even the eastern CWA will see 850 mb temperatures warm into the low teens. This will lead to high temperatures fairly similar to Thursday's, generally in the mid to upper 60s with scattered low 70s.

With these warm temperatures, RH values will be driven down into the mid teens in eastern Colorado. Combined with winds behind the front gusting up around 25 kts in northeastern Colorado, briefly critical fire weather conditions look likely. However, longevity of the critical conditions is in question and confidence we hit Red Flag Warning criteria is less than 30%.

Saturday evening, the upper-level ridge will be completely gone from the High Plains and replaced with a weak trough. Northwesterly flow will persist in the lower levels, pushing lows to the low 30s for the CWA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 140 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

A shortwave trough embedded in northwesterly flow across the Northern and Eastern United States is forecast to be overhead Sunday morning. A region of surface low pressure in association with this shortwave looks to overspread areas east and south of the forecast area, establishing WNW to NW winds across the CWA through most of the morning and afternoon. Downsloping winds as a byproduct of this flow would promote warm, dry conditions Sunday afternoon. High temperatures in the mid to upper-60s are forecast, with about a 50- 60% chance for temperatures at or above 70 across portions of Northwest Kansas. Additionally, RH values in the upper-teens to low- 20s are possible across the CWA. Locally critical fire weather is not yet a concern, as NBM guidance suggests only about a 25% chance or less for wind gusts to meet criteria, in addition to the need for RH values to drop a few more points. Similar conditions are forecast Monday, with high temperatures forecast in the upper-60s to lower-70s. Southwest winds ahead of another surface low pressure could allow slightly lower RH values in the mid to upper- teens, primarily for counties along the KS-CO border. NBM guidance indicates only a 10-15% chance for locally critical fire weather conditions. Confidence in a warning being needed for either Sunday or Monday rests around 5%.

A cold front is forecast to move through the forecast area sometime between the evening and overnight hours on Monday, which may promote cooler conditions through the remainder of the period. High temperatures are forecast in the upper-40s to lower-50s through Friday, with lows in the 20s. In addition, there is the potential for a winter system to impact the forecast area anytime from Tuesday evening through the end of the period. The primary concern for this system will be light rain and snow, but there are indications from 25% of GEFS members that elevated snowfall totals are possible. Timing, coverage, and intensity for this system are all in question, though the GEFS members and the NBM are centering on Thursday night to Friday as the most likely timeframe for precipitation to occur.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 420 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KGLD through the period, but there is a 10% chance MVFR visibilities occur between 8-12Z from some fog. KMCK will likely see VFR conditions prevail through the period, but there is a 45% chance MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities move in after 8Z tomorrow morning. If the fog or stratus occurs, expect moderate icing near the surface. The moist layer looks to remain fairly shallow tomorrow morning.

A high pressure system moving over the northern High Plains will cause winds to be shifting clockwise all day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 233 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Dry and warmer than normal conditions are forecast to persist through at least Monday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday through Monday.

Saturday, Yuma and Kit Carson counties (CO fire zones 252 & 253) are forecast to have RH values drop into the mid teens and winds from the northwest gust to around 25 MPH. Confidence in an hour or two of critical fire weather conditions is about 60% while confidence Red Flag Warning criteria is met sits around 20-25%. Yuma county (252) has the highest risk for meeting criteria.

Sunday and Monday, elevated fire weather conditions remain forecast as RH values drop into the teens across eastern Colorado and adjacent counties to the east. Winds these days will be weaker, likely remaining under 20 MPH.

GFDI values top out around 30 on Saturday and are lower the following days. Conditions are still forecast to remain dry until Tuesday evening, but we are looking at precipitation returning mid next week.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.