textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue this week, with slight cool down Wednesday.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-60%) through the start of next week. Best chances will be Saturday and Monday night.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 412 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon in eastern Colorado with a weak disturbance moving through the southwest flow aloft. They will move northeast with the mean flow this evening. Latest CAMs show a cluster of storms in far northeast Colorado which moves into the Nebraska panhandle this evening. Convection south of the main cluster is more isolated but will be moving into the area this evening. MLCAPE will be 1500-2000 j/kg and deep layer shear around 30 kts north of Interstate 70 but lower south. Storms will be relatively high-based and in a favorable DCAPE environment promoting a risk of damaging wind gusts. Conditions also appear marginally favorable for blowing dust and localized dust storms, but confidence is low in that hazard. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with slow storm motions, but that threat will be greatest with the main cluster which may end up north of the area. Storm chances will continue through the overnight hours as they slowly move east, but with a diminishing severe threat as the boundary layer cools and DCAPE gradually weakens. Precipitation chances may linger into Sunday morning east of Highway 83 before finally moving out.

Southwest flow continues on Sunday around the amplified ridge over the plains. CAMs show convective initiation occurring along the Front Range of northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming late in the afternoon. They show little if any convection further east over the plains. Mean storm motions will take the Front Range convection northeast into the Nebraska panhandle. Instability and shear remain weak, but DCAPE around 1500 j/kg will once again be favorable for damaging wind gusts. Best chances will be in the Tri-Border area in the evening hours, but confidence is low given where the storms initiate and expected motion that they will reach that area at all.

A strong system moving through the Northern Rockies on Monday will result in falling heights and a modest increase in flow as far south as Colorado. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the afternoon in northeast Colorado. While instability is forecast to be rather weak, generally less than 1000 j/kg, deep layer shear in Colorado will be 30-40 kts. The increased shear will promote more organized and long-lived updrafts as they move across the area Monday night. Main hazard will once again be wind, but may see a hail threat in the afternoon or early evening with any discrete cell that develops far enough east to take advantage of somewhat better instability in the Kansas/Colorado border area.

On Tuesday, the ridge flattens as another strong shortwave moves through the Northern Plains around the upper low in Canada. Due to the increased flow aloft deep layer shear will range from 30-40 kts, highest in Nebraska. A surface front associated with the shortwave is forecast to sag into the area and will be a favored area for convective initiation, however at this time range difficult to say exactly where it will end up. Instability axis will be located along/north of the frontal boundary, but currently appears weak at around 500-1000 j/kg. Nonetheless, with the increase in deep layer shear would expect a corresponding increase in the severe threat for wind and hail, though it may be limited somewhat by the weak instability.

Temperatures remain above normal through Monday under the ridge, followed by less hot temperatures on Tuesday, highly dependent on where the front eventually ends up. Highs north of the front will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, but remain in the upper 90s ahead of it.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 412 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A modest 60-75 kt jet streak at 500-mb looks to be located north \and east of the forecast region Wednesday morning, as a trough sweeps through the Great Lakes Region. A surface low in the right entrance region of this upper-level jet would be favored just to the south of the area, providing northerly surface winds at the start of the morning. These winds may gradually shift out of the east throughout the day as a surface high moves east across the Northern Plains. Even so, forecast highs are currently in the mid 80s to lower 90s, slightly cooler than recent days. Highs could be hotter if the surface low does not develop as far south as current guidance shows, or if the northerly to easterly winds throughout the day are on the lighter side, allowing solar heating to play a more prominent role in the high temperatures. This is represented in the NBM 75th percentile temperatures, which reach into the mid and upper 90s across southern portions of the County Warning Area (CWA). There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop Wednesday evening, and possibly lasting into the overnight hours. Forecast guidance shows PoPs (probability of precipitation) in the 20s and 30s across most of the area during this period. However, NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows a 1 in 3 chance or less of receiving greater than 0.1 inches of rain for all areas in the CWA. The likelihood that any storm becomes severe Wednesday evening is low, as LREF guidance shows less than a 40% chance across the entire area that sfc-500mb shear will exceed 30 kts. The best opportunity for severe storms would be across portions of Southwest Nebraska, where these probabilities are in the 30s. Even so, confidence that severe weather occurs anywhere in the area Wednesday is 5% or less at this time.

By Thursday morning, troughing is favored to be off to the west, as ridging begins to move in overhead. Surface winds look to be out of the south during this period, helping highs to stay in the lower 90s across the area. Chances for precipitation begin to decrease as well, with PoPs below 20% throughout the entire day. If storms are able to develop, they would most likely be associated with convergence across eastern parts of the area, or from storms moving into portions of Eastern Colorado from the Front Range. LREF guidance shows slightly better probabilities for sfc-500mb wind shear greater than 30 kts as opposed to Wednesday, but still under 50% across the forecast area. Once again, confidence that severe weather occurs in the area Thursday is 5% or less.

Forecast guidance begins to diverge on Friday. Ensemble guidance seems to have the most confidence in a deep, longwave trough forming across the Northeast. This could support an active weather pattern, with multiple shortwave systems traversing the forecast area. Depending on the timing of these shortwave features, high temperatures between the mid 80s and upper 90s could be expected. The higher end of this range would be more likely if the forecast region were along the leading edge of a shortwave trough during the afternoon, providing sufficient southwesterly flow for warmer conditions. However, if a shortwave trough is directly overhead during the afternoon, conditions may be cooler. Precipitation continues to look unlikely during this period as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 506 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Main aviation concern will be the potential for thunderstorms later tonight and into the overnight hours. Storms in northeast Colorado this evening are mainly moving northeast into Nebraska, but with time they may work their way into the area from the north. If that occurs, and confidence is on the low side, they would be accompanied by gusty winds and potentially heavy rainfall. Outflow from those storms could also result in easterly winds and the potential for low clouds and patchy fog through Sunday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.