textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A winter system is forecast to impact the area today and tonight. A trace to 2 inches of snowfall with pockets of 2-4 inches is expected.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures return at the start of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

Today, our next low pressure system comes over the Rockies and will be pushing into the CWA this afternoon. As the 250 mb jet stream fights against this trough, we'll be having some light, but widespread forcing during the day today, ahead of the main low. Additionally, during the day, low level flow will bring a bit of moist air into the region. These two factors will promote overcast skies and scattered flurries throughout the day. The clouds will also keep us cool with max temperatures topping out in the 30s across the CWA.

The bulk of the snow looks to move into the area around 20-22Z from the southwest. Peak timing for the snowfall looks to be around 0-6Z and will begin exiting the area between 10-15Z Saturday. With temperatures being so cold, P-type will be snow and SLRs look to be in the 15-17:1 range, although they could be as high as 20:1. Most of the area can expect between 1-2 inches of snow by Saturday morning. There are still signs of less than 10 microbars of Omega in the the saturated layer around 0-3Z, with conditional instability. This could indicate 1+ inch snowfall/hour rates, but would only occur for a short period of time. Areas under this enhancement could see total snowfall amounts of 2-4 inches. As it stands, probabilities for greater than 2.5 inches of snowfall sits at 20-30% from the REFS, 0-15% from HREF, and 25-50% from the NBM. The NBM 50% probability is basically just in Sheridan county, otherwise it's a 25-40% probability. This leads us to believe widespread 1-2 inches with isolated pockets of 2-4 inches are likely to occur with this system.

On a side note, the southwestern CWA could see some isolated thundersnow or a snow-squall between 21-03Z today. The area that SPC has outlooked in general thunder today could see a dryline push in from the west. This feature will largely be relying on forcing as CAPE is extremely limited. Impacts from this could include a rapid drop in visibilities, down under a mile in heavy snow.

There is a 10-20% chance of less than 1 mile visibility in blowing snow, not in the potential squall, this afternoon and tomorrow midday across eastern Colorado. Winds from the southeast today gusting up to 30 kts and from the northwest tomorrow of a similar magnitude are expected. Potential is low for today because the wind should be weakening by the time the main snow begins. It's low for tomorrow because the snow will have had some time to settle before the wind picks up. Areas that see the higher snowfall rates also have a 20-30% chance of seeing visibility reduced to less than 1 mile, primarily from the high snowfall rates. Winds overnight look to largely remain below 15 MPH, but will be variable.

There is a weak signal showing some patchy freezing fog/light flurries tomorrow morning, trailing the precipitation. Once again, with temperatures around 10 to 15F, supercooled droplets are unlikely to occur and instead small ice particulate is more likely. This is better than supercooled droplets as the ice will have a harder time latching to surfaces to make them slick. Any visibility reducing fog/flurries should clear out by 16-17Z.

Saturday a ridge will be building in from the west. This will push out any lingering moisture and allow our temperatures to start rebounding as highs warm into the 40s. As temperatures warm, RH values will drop into the upper teens, again. Eastern Colorado could also see some gusts around 20-25 kts, leading to some low end fire weather concerns. RH and winds may briefly hit criticality in eastern Colorado, but the recent light snowfall will help minimize any threats. Sunday looks similar to Saturday, but moisture will have been able to rebound a bit, keeping RH values above 25%.

Overnight temperatures tonight through Sunday night look to cool into the low to mid teens, with isolated single digits in the northern CWA. Wind chills will generally be around 0F, with isolated -5F possible.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

Monday, our region remains under a ridge with a deep trough developing off of the west coast. The warming trend continues with high temperatures forecast in the 60s for Monday and the mid 70s for Tuesday. Winds are relatively mild for most of the county warning area (CWA), but our Colorado counties could see gusts up to 25 mph Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be from the west/southwest, so downsloping winds could allow conditions to warm and dry out further than currently forecast. Tuesday has the potential for elevated fire weather concerns. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the teens for the majority of the CWA. This, combined with downsloping winds could create briefly critical fire weather conditions for our Colorado counties.

Tuesday overnight into Wednesday, conditions cool slightly following a weak cold frontal passage. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s with lows in the 30s. With a strong jet streak overhead of our region, winds are forecast to pick up in the afternoon. Expect northwest gusts up to 25 mph for the eastern portion of the CWA and gusts up to 40 mph for the western portion. Winds are forecast to calm down by sundown.

There is a slight chance for precipitation Wednesday evening for the southeastern portion of the CWA due to a shortwave and a weak cold front quickly passing through the region. Probability of Precipitations (PoPs) are only 10-15% currently. Temperatures are above freezing while the shortwave moves through, so rain is the expected precipitation type.

The overnight cold frontal passage cools down the region slightly, but high temperatures are still unseasonably warm with highs forecast in the 60s for Thursday. The afternoon will be a bit breezy for our Colorado counties with gusts up to 30 mph possible.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1019 AM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

Worsening conditions are expected to impact both KGLD and KMCK around 22-0Z this afternoon as snow moves into the region. Heaviest snowfall is expected to be between 1-4Z at KGLD and visibilities could get to around 1 mile if high snowfall rates impact the airport. KMCK could see something similar between 6-9Z. IFR ceilings are also possible for both locations, but around 6-10Z for both locations.

After 10Z, conditions are expected to gradually improve, although KMCK could see some freezing fog or flurries until about 16Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.