textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of systems move through the region late this week and may bring precipitation. Moderate confidence on timing, but low confidence on accumulations at this time.

- Signal for strong winds and increasing fire weather potential Sunday through mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1102 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

A surface high nudging into the northwest portion of the forecast area has developed some low stratus along it with some very weak moisture advection aiding it. 15Z RAP cross section analysis suggests that any stratus potential will end around 21Z or so but it may make it down towards the I-70 corridor around the Burlington/Goodland vicinity. Thanks to this high pressure winds are forecast to become light around 5-10 mph and shift to the east through the evening and night. Due to this believe some radiational cooling potential will be on the table assuming that the stratus does dissipate and we are not fighting upper level cirrus that overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 20s across the area. Winds are forecast to become more southerly around 09Z which should actually result in some warming towards the freezing mark. If this is slower to occur or winds are lighter than 10 mph which is currently forecast as the winds shift then temperatures may fall a little lower than currently forecast for Wednesday morning.

The high pressure system is forecast to shift to the east of the area for the day Wednesday which is what is allowing the southerly winds to return to the area and temperatures in the upper 50s to return. A tightening pressure gradient across the area and an intensifying 850mb jet during the morning and early afternoon hours is forecast to lead to breezy winds sustained around 15-20 mph. Some gusts around 30 mph are possible through around noon mountain time as the 850mb jet wanes. If the jet and the gusts were to last a little longer then some elevated fire weather concerns could present themselves for a few hours for the early afternoon across eastern Colorado. As for the RH for the day, with the southerly winds and mixing heights around 2000 feet AGL have brought down dew points across the area for the afternoon as mixing has been very stronger for the past several weeks and this pattern for the day does suggests that it will continue. If the mixing isn't as strong and lower dew points aloft do not mix down then humidity should remain high enough to negate any elevated fire conditions. Current forecast is tailored to the lower dew points mixing and dropping the humidity.

Wednesday night and into Thursday is forecast to see a surface low develop across southwest Kansas. This is forecast to continue to lead to mild temperatures across the area Thursday. Overall not much noteworthy with this low other than a shifting of the winds to the north on the backside of it with sustained winds around 10-15 mph and perhaps a few gusts around 20 mph. Thursday night a subtle shortwave and associated 500mb vorticity maxima is forecast to move across western portions of the forecast area. This may lead to some light shower potential mainly across eastern Colorado.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Starting the extended period, light precipitation potential forecast to continue which mainly looks to be driven from a departing jet and subtle shortwaves within the flow. Current forecast favors all rain as the precipitation type but wet bulb zero suggests that there could be some snow that mixes in Friday morning if enough cold air can work in. Confidence has increased some in this based on ECMWF ensemble 6 hr qpf output which is favoring a bit more northern track for the majority of the members. A wet snow would be favored due to temperatures currently being forecast in the upper 20s to low 30s. Some guidance does try to indicate that some lingering MUCAPE may be present which may lead to some localized areas of moderate precipitation but nailing down overall locations currently and if this will happen is very difficult at this range. Currently locations along and south of Interstate 70 has the relatively higher potential for precipitation. There is a 30-40% chance however that this system continues to shift to the south and a 10-20% chance the entire area misses out on any precipitation. If the system does shift to the south then warmer than currently forecasted temperatures would occur.

Another pattern shift is forecast to occur during the latter part of the weekend. Another trough off of the coast of California is forecast to move towards the area leading to increasing wind mid and upper level wind fields across the region. At the surface, troughs are forecast to move through leading to more southwesterly winds and warmer temperatures again for the area. The concern with these features is that fire weather may become more prominent as southwesterly winds typically indicate much drier air at the surface and temperatures in the upper tier of the forecast echelon. With the surface troughs as well the 850mb wind field is forecast to increase staring as early as Sunday. With this pattern would not be surprised if highs increase over the coming days for Sunday through mid week along with lowering humidity values. Fire weather concerns are forecast to gradually increase Sunday and into the start of the next work with Tuesday currently the day of most interest as the lower wind fields significantly are forecast to increase as indicated on the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian guidance. If this come to fruiting then a potential high impact weather day may be in the realm of possibility with high winds, critical fire weather and dust. 850mb winds are forecast to increase to around 40-55 knots impacting the entire area or portions of the area depending on which guidance you look at. If this signal does continue then winds would increase over the coming days. There is still quite a bit to sort out when it comes to timing and location of if and when these winds do occur but there is enough of a signal that it does need watching over the next several days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 455 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to scattered wisps of cirrus above ~12,000 ft AGL. Light NNE to NE winds will become variable this evening and overnight. Winds will shift to the S and increase to 10-15 knots an hour or on either side of sunrise.. further increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts to ~25 knots during the late morning and early afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to scattered wisps of cirrus above ~12,000 ft AGL. Light NNE to NE winds will become variable this evening and overnight. Winds will shift to the S and increase to 10-15 knots late Wed morning.. further increasing to 15-20 knots during the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.