textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect today for northwest KS and southwest NE, where another day of triple digit temps and heat indices will maintain a high risk for heat related illnesses.

- A few severe storms are possible this aft-eve, mainly in eastern CO and nearby KS/NE border counties between 3-11 PM MDT. Localized wind gusts up to 75 mph are the main threat. A few instances of quarter size hail, locally heavy rainfall and nuisance flooding are also possible. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage.

- Showers/storms are possible through much of the week, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge centered over the Rockies and adjacent portions of the Central and Southern Plains will persist through the short term period.

No change to ongoing Heat Advisory. Forecast on track.

Through Tonight: A small amplitude wave (or mesoscale convective vorticity maximum) evident on visible satellite over northwest and north-central Colorado this morning appears to be the primary mechanism driving showers and extensive cloud cover in the lee of the central Rockies. This feature is expected to slowly track east (along the northern periphery of the ridge) across the Rockies this aft-eve and Tri-State Area tonight-Tue morning. In the lower levels, a mesoscale high (assoc/w showers and pervasive clouds) over northern CO and the NE Panhandle has shifted the lee cyclone southward into southeast CO and southwest to south-central KS, resulting in NE-ENE low-level flow and rich low-level moisture advection from central-southern Nebraska into northwest KS. The 12Z NAM NEST suggests that development will occur along the Palmer Divide and I-70 corridor near the KS-CO border ~4 pm MDT (22Z) this afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR suggest that low-level convergence in vicinity of the lee cyclone and strong heating over southwest KS will aid in convective development further south, between Lamar and Cheyenne Wells, by ~3 pm MDT (21Z), with additional development possible along the Palmer Divide in Lincoln County, and that ensuing convection will gradually track eastward over western KS late this afternoon and evening. Given the complex nature of the mesoscale pattern over the region, low confidence persists with regard to storm location/coverage. In environmental conditions characterized by 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 1500-2000 J/kg DCAPE and modest (20-30KT) effective deep layer shear, updrafts could be unorganized, multicellular and/or supercellular in nature (a wide variety of the organizational spectrum). For what it's worth, simulated reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest multicellular clusters with transient supercellular organization. With the above in mind, damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, mainly in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties between 3-10 pm MDT.

Tue-Tue night: Early morning convection will, no doubt, modify environmental conditions over the region. Guidance suggests cooler temperatures (highs in the 90's) largely associated with a convectively modified airmass. Guidance presently indicates that late afternoon and evening storms developing along the Colorado Front Range and Palmer Divide will largely be confined west of the Goodland CWA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1210 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Synoptically, not much has changed; the ridge that has been in place over the Four Corners region is still likely to stay nearly stationary over the next week. By Saturday, guidance shows a signal that the ridge will weaken as a trough moves along the U.S./Canada border. Throughout the week, there should be a few shortwaves moving through the area.

High temperatures for the week look to "cool" down to the mid to high 90s. Winds look to remain under 25 MPH with RH values staying above 25%, minimizing fire weather concerns.

Tuesday's PoPs are currently forecast to be in the 30-60% range, with the highest chances in eastern Colorado. Guidance indicates that the surface low to the south of the CWA will likely remain there throughout the day. With the low stationary, winds should mainly be from the east-northeast, promoting upslope flow for showers and storms. After looking at the instability and shear for severe storm potential, there is a low end chance that they would be severe, something we will need to watch over the next few days. For the northwestern portions of the CWA, there is a 25-40% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation from Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday still look to have higher precipitation chances of the long-term period as a shortwave propagates through during the afternoon and evening hours. Guidance indicates a boundary moving in from the northwest toward the southeast, though models disagree on its exact location and timing. Currently, both the GFS and Canadian models show the boundary. However, the GFS brings it in during the late afternoon hour, whereas the Canadian delays it until early Thursday morning. Other guidance doesn't have the boundary. If it does materialize, the severe storm potential is again low, but not 0. PoPs are forecast in the 40-65 range, giving eastern Colorado the highest PoPs. Eastern Colorado also has a 25-45% chance of seeing 0.10" of precipitation. Give this is roughly four days out, it will be interesting to see how guidance trends for the location and speed of the boundary.

For the rest of the week and weekend, PoPs steadily decrease. Thursday's chances are around 20-30% while Friday-Sunday stay around 10-20%. However, with shortwaves passing through, any favorable lifting mechanism could increase the precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1030 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

While thunderstorms are possible at both terminals late this afternoon and evening, there is low confidence in thunderstorm location and coverage. As a result, mention of thunder will be confined to a PROB30 group for the 18Z TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period. NE to E winds at 12-18 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots are expected to persist into the afternoon. Low confidence in wind speed and direction late this afternoon into tonight, when thunderstorm location and coverage will play a central role in the evolution of the MSLP pattern over the region.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.