textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Light wintry precipitation (mainly rain/snow) possible late this evening and early Wednesday morning. If precip develops, there is a very low chance (at or below 10%) for a brief period of light freezing rain east of Hwy 25, where patchy ice could lead to slick roads / hazardous travel conditions.

- Above average highs expected late this week through early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 225 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Today-Tonight: Light precipitation may develop over portions of the area this evening into Wednesday morning.. as shortwave energy in N to NNW flow aloft progresses southward through the Northern Plains (this afternoon) into the Central Plains (tonight). Guidance indicates two general scenarios for precipitation:

[1] Current and recent (12-18Z) operational runs of the HRRR and RAP indicate either a localized trace of precipitation or none at all. In an environment characterized by northerly low- level flow and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles (i.e. a dry sub-cloud layer in the lowest ~8,000 ft AGL), such output is typically indicative of virga. This implies that precipitation reaching the ground would do-so as a result of top-down moistening (i.e. in the presence of a saturated dendritic growth/ice nucleation zone). In eastern portions of the Goodland county warning area, vertical wetbulb profiles via forecast soundings suggest that a shallow above-freezing layer could be present in the lowest ~500 to 2,000 ft AGL (varies from model to model). If the shallow above freezing layer is deep enough for precipitation to melt.. and precipitation doesn't evaporate prior to reaching the ground.. and surface wetbulb temperatures are below freezing.. then a brief period of 'freezing sprinkles' is a possibility.

[2] Current and recent (12-18Z) runs of the NAM NEST and GEM- RDPS indicate narrow, north-south oriented swaths of light to moderate precipitation (~0.05 to 0.10" liquid equivalent) early Wed morning (~06-12Z Wed). In an environment characterized by northerly low-level flow and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles (i.e. a dry sub-cloud layer in the lowest ~8,000 ft AGL).. this implies that precipitation reaching the ground would do-so as a result of top-down moistening (i.e. in the presence of a saturated dendritic growth/ice nucleation zone). Both models indicate above-freezing surface wetbulb temperatures when/where precipitation is falling (suggesting rain) and near-freezing / isothermal vertical wetbulb profiles in the presence of moderate precipitation (suggesting a potential rain=>snow transition).

It should be noted that the 3-hr freezing rain QPF ensemble maximum via the 12Z HREF did not indicate any measurable (>= 0.01") freezing rain in the Goodland county warning area, and.. ensemble members that did indicate measurable freezing rain did- so along/east of Hwy 281 in central KS (along and east of a line from Smith Center to Russell). Measurable (>= 0.01") freezing rain probabilities via the 12Z LREF-NH were similar to the HREF.. and indicated a ~1% probability in Norton/Graham counties.

Wed-Wed night: Expect a clearing trend during the late morning and early afternoon, with highs in the upper 40's to lower 50's and overnight (Thu morning) lows in the mid-upper 20's.

Thu-Thu night: Expect a warming trend with highs in the lower- mid 60's.. as a pronounced upper level ridge over the Intermountain West expands eastward across the Rockies. Breezy (15-25 G 30 mph) NW to NNW winds are possible in eastern portions of the area during the late morning and early afternoon.. where minimum RH readings ~25-30% are expected.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 225 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Large scale mid/upper level pattern features the breakdown of the western CONUS Rex block pattern and ridging building across the Central Rockies into the Central High Plains Friday into the weekend. Rising heights and southerly flow will bring well above average temperatures in the 60s Friday, with a chance for temperatures to approach 70 on Saturday. There is a weak shortwave that progresses north of the region Saturday as the amplitude of the ridge broadens/flattens but very dry air remains in place and besides passing high clouds or a slight shift in temperatures (lower 60s instead of 70) sensible weather impacts are unlikely. Split flow is expected to be in place over the tri-state region Sunday into early next week as the trough in the southwest US finally moves across the Southern Plains early next week. This pattern evolution keeps the area under warm and dry conditions, and outside of any favorable track for measurable precipitation.

The main concern will be monitoring for any potential fire weather impacts in this pattern Friday into next week. RH values 20% or lower are forecast most afternoons with the best chance for RH values near 15% in eastern Colorado Saturday into early next week. Saturday is one day to monitor as flow aloft increases due to the passing shortwave to the north and mixed layer winds could support more frequent gusts 25 mph or greater (particularly in eastern CO counties (Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne). GFDI values based on latest NBM are in the 20-30 range raising the potential for localized/brief critical fire weather conditions. Timing of a weak front late Saturday associated with the shortwave to the north could complicate RH and axis of higher wind gusts, but it will still be the main period to monitor for fire weather during the long range periods.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 411 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Scattered high based virga/sprinkles/flurries will continue to move through the area tonight. Little, if any, impacts expected from this activity with VFR expected to prevail.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.