textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect for Yuma and Kit Carson counties today.

- Red Flag Warning again issued for the entire Tri-State Area on Saturday due to low relative humidity and breezy conditions.

- Northerly wind gusts at or above 60 mph are possible in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage early Sunday morning. Winds may continue to be strong through the day Sunday, with small potential for light snow and/or blowing dust to occur at same time.

- Next week, expect dry conditions and a day-to-day warming trend culminating in near-record to record high temperatures for the month of March by the end of the work-week (Thu-Fri).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 158 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

This afternoon we continue to have lingering haze from the smoke associated with the Nebraska wildfires across the Tri-State Area. Critical fire conditions remain a possibility over the next few hours as winds should increase over Eastern Colorado as a warm front pushes east into the area, which is when we should see the relative humidity values also start to drop. Later this evening into the overnight hours, winds are expected to decrease as a surface low along the South Dakota/Nebraska border drags the trough east. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees tonight.

Tomorrow a series of shortwave disturbances in the upper levels will work to strengthen a lee surface trough as the associated low matures over the Northern Plains. This patterns sets the Tri-State area up for a classic warm and dry day with more concerns for critical fire weather conditions between 11 AM and 8 PM MDT/12 PM and 9 PM CDT. The Red Flag Warning originally issued for our Colorado counties has been expanded across the area with west to southwest winds gusting to 35 mp. Confidence in the winds being greater than 20 mph was low-moderate for those along and east of Highway-83; however, after communicating with surrounding offices decided to go ahead and include those counties. Humidity values should fall into the low to mid teens across the area.

Tomorrow night into Sunday morning a strong cold front is expected to sweep across the area. This will bring high winds across the area from out of the north to north-northwest with sustained speeds of 35- 45 mph and gusts to 65 mph possible through the early evening hours. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the entire area from 4 AM to 8 PM MDT/5 AM to 9 PM CDT. Wrap-around moisture with the low over the Northern Plains will move over the area bringing a chance (20- 50%)for light rain that could transition to snow as temperatures fall. Currently not expecting much for accumulation, but the winds could create some visibility concerns for falling snow once the transition to a dry powdery snow happens. Highs on Sunday have trended cooler, so blended in the 25th percentile NBM guidance to have our highs in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. With the winds, there is also concern for blowing dust across the area despite the chance for moisture. As the initial surge of wind moves in, mixing heights are currently favoring to be below 2,000 m, so we could see better concentrations of dust than we have with our most recent events. Overnight lows are currently expected to fall into the upper teens to low 30s, with potential to be even colder based on trends. Wind chills will be a concern for those with cold-sensitve plants and animals as they are currently expected to fall into the lower teens to near zero.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Temperature roller coaster will continue through next week as large and anomalously strong H5 ridge will build over the southwest CONUS through the period, leading to a warming trend and continued dry conditions. Only real chance for even light precipitation would be early in the period/overnight Monday as strong WAA accompanies the amplifying ridge. Even with some forcing provided by this, airmass below H85 looks increasingly dry and combined with large scale subsidence coming from building ridge, do not see a chance for any meaningful precipitation. Otherwise temperatures will warm each day reaching around 30 degrees above normal by Thursday and Friday. With very warm temperatures and little in the way of moisture advection into the area will keep CWA primed for wildfires should the winds pick up each day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1043 AM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are expected over the KMCK and KGLD terminals through the TAF period. Over the next few hours, winds are expected to become southwesterly over the KGLD terminal while KMCK stays primarily out of the south to southeast due to the position of a warm front retreating back into the area. Gusts of 20-25 kts will be possible much of the afternoon before declining after sunset as both terminals go under southwesterly to westerly winds overnight at 5-10 kts. Both terminals could see haze from the Nebraska wildfires with some slight visibility decreases over KMCK possible.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252-253. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ252>254. High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for COZ090>092. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081. High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for NEZ079>081.