textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week.

- Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Friday appears to be the last in a series of days with diurnally driven thunderstorms developing and persisting through the evening hours. Confidence in this time period is somewhat lower than normal since it will strongly depend on how thunderstorms develop tonight and tomorrow night. That being said, general pattern appears to hold frontal zone to the south of area, with generally easterly upslope flow throughout the day. Best large scale forcing for ascent appears to just skirt the CWA south of Interstate 70 as weak H7-H5 low moves into SW Kansas. As mentioned before, confidence in details is low at this point and time but overall pattern supports another round of thunderstorms developing over higher terrain and moving to the east southeast in the evening hours. Directional shear will be better than previous days, although overall wind speeds aloft are on the weaker side Friday will likely provide the best shear profiles for organized storms. Similar to the past few days, highest threat will be for organized areas of damaging winds through the evening followed by threat for hail in the 1" to 1.75" range. Blowing dust threat will depend greatly on how and where precipitation falls on Thursday and morning cloud cover. Confidence in these specifics are very low at this point however, resulting in low confidence in dust threat.

Region will move into a warm and dry pattern as strong H5 597 dm ridge develops and builds into the northern plains through the start of the week. While there is a small threat for precipitation/thunderstorms on periphery of the H5 ridge Saturday this potential drops off rapidly through the rest of the period as subsidence under strong ridge. With probabilities of this magnitude of ridging fairly high based on ensemble probabilities, confidence in hot and overall dry weather is high. With temperatures climbing into the 90s, possibly upper 90s by mid week, the primary expected impacts. Right now, dewpoints should remain high enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions, but will have to keep a close eye on heat indices through the start of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the TAF period. Winds will be light and out of the northwest until around 16Z when they shift to out of the east and increase to around 12 knots. After 20Z, thunderstorms will enter the area from the west as a cluster causing erratic winds. Some storms may be severe producing 1-2 inch hail and winds around 50 knots. After the cluster passes, light rain will persist through the end of the TAF period.

For KMCK, generally VFR conditions will prevail with a chance of MVFR conditions through 09Z caused by thunderstorms in the area. Thunderstorms continue to pop up in the area leading to sporadic storm activity. Winds will be out of the northwest around 10 knots through 09Z. Around 19Z, winds will shift to out of the east. Low confidence in thunderstorm conditions from 00Z through the end of the TAF period. If the storms occur, they would move in from the west as a cluster and may produce large hail and strong winds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.