textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered light showers and sprinkles tonight with minimal impacts.

- Breezy to windy on Thursday with elevated fire weather concerns.

- Very windy to possibly damaging wind gusts on Friday with explosive fire growth potential and dust storms possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

A shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow will bring widely scattered light showers/sprinkles to the area tonight. QPF of a trace to a few hundredths will be possible with the low levels very dry. The clouds will keep temperatures above freezing and wintry precipitation is not expected. Lows will be in the mid 30s. Wednesday will be mostly dry, though CAMs do hint at some lingering light showers near the Palmer Divide in the afternoon. Impacts would be minimal, if any at all, as QPF remains around only a few hundredths. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s and lows Wednesday night in the 20s.

Attention turns to the potential for more impactful weather Thursday and Friday due to strong winds and low humidity. On Thursday, will see a modest increase in winds with breezy northwest winds gusting around 40-50 mph by the afternoon. Relative humidity will fall into the upper teens, lowest in Colorado and adjacent counties along the Colorado border to the east. Currently looks to be just shy of critical fire weather conditions, but it would not take much change in temperature or dew points to push it into critical territory. Highs will be around 60 and lows Thursday night in the 20s. Friday will be the main day of concern. At 500 mb, a 110kt+ jet streak will be accompanying a shortwave trough digging into the central plains. As mixing deepens in the afternoon, some of those winds will mix to the surface. NBM statistical output shows average gusts Friday afternoon between 60-70 mph across the area, and peak gusts of 70-90 mph. Strongest winds appear to favor western areas from Colorado and west of Highway 25 in Kansas/Nebraska. In addition to the possibility of damaging wind gusts, relative humidity minimums in the teens will result in the potential for explosive fire growth. Finally, blowing dust will likely be a concern. Mixing heights are a bit high (around 2.5 km) which may inhibit widespread dense blowing dust, though winds of that magnitude will certainly be capable of producing localized plumes of near zero visibility and extremely hazardous travel conditions. Soils should be primed with little recent rain or snow, except in southern areas which will have had a week or so to melt and dry out. Winds will rapidly diminish after sunset as the boundary layer decouples. High temperatures will be in the lower 40s and lows Friday night in the teens.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

Saturday, a broad upper trough continues to slide to the east, with northwest flow over the Tri-State area. Temperatures will become a little closer to seasonal, ranging from the low to mid-40s for highs. Models still show a pretty tight pressure gradient over the Tri-State area. Winds may still be on the breezy/windy side during the daytime hours, out of the northwest around 15-25kts and gusts reaching above 30kts, particularly in northeastern Colorado. Minimum RH values will fall into the low to mid-20s. The lowest RH values will be co-located with potentially the strongest winds/gusts, which might cause some elevated fire weather concerns for northeastern Colorado on Saturday. This will, however, be dependent on how quickly the broad trough or low pushes east. Some models are still pushing the narrative of a possible low over the Great Lakes on Saturday.

Sunday, winds are expected to slacken off slightly, remaining out of the northwest. The strongest winds gusts may reach 35mph in northeastern Colorado, co-located with RH values in the mid to upper teens. Although not quite meeting RFW criteria and considering this is still day five, this will be something to keep an eye on in the coming days.

Sunday through the end of the forecast period, temperatures are expected to return to the 50s for highs.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 416 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

Breezy winds are forecast to continue through the evening with gusts around 30 knots. If the winds don't continue to be breezy then LLWS will be a concern. Confidence is high enough that the winds will continue so will leave LLWS out of the TAF for now. Light showers are possible around or after 06Z where some MVFR ceilings are possible. Breezy winds are forecast as well through the day Wednesday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.