textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday in parts of northeast Colorado and along the Kansas and Colorado border area.

- Damaging wind gusts are likely on Friday with northwest winds gusting 60-90 mph Friday morning through Friday afternoon. Blowing dust, including localized but extremely hazardous dust storms, may also develop. Any fires that ignite will have explosive growth potential due to strong winds and low humidity.

- Saturday also has the potential for strong winds, blowing dust and wild fires. While the wind is not expected to be as high as Friday, gusts over 60 mph will be possible in the afternoon, particularly in northeast Colorado and west of Highway 25 in Kansas and Nebraska.

UPDATE

Issued at 644 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Overall forecast continues to remain on track. The only change that was made was to add Yuma county to the Red Flag Warning for Thursday. Northwest winds typically lead to temperatures being around 3-5 degrees warmer across Yuma county due to localized downslope warming. Only adding two degrees to the high temperature for tomorrow was enough to yield 14-15% humidity across most of the county. Previous forecast was closer to the mean high temperatures which suggested to me as well is that there is enough of a signal for temperatures to achieve the warmer end of the forecast spectrum. This along with the signal that winds may be the highest across Yuma county of 40-45 mph was enough of a nudge for me to add them to the Red Flag Warning. Have also added in patchy blowing dust across portions of Yuma county due to concerns of blowing dust originating from the burn scars from the wildfires from December 17th-18th.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Wind, fire and blowing dust concerns continue for the area Thursday through Saturday, though Friday will be the most impactful day.

For Thursday, will see a modest increase in winds in the afternoon with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range, possibly up to 45 mph north of Interstate 70. Afternoon relative humidity minimums will drop into the mid to upper teens, and that was derived from the lowest percentile dew points from the NBM. Areas currently in the Red Flag Warning have the highest probability of reaching critical criteria for a few hours, but confidence in the watch area is still lacking to upgrade, mainly because of dew points. Otherwise, looking at highs in the lower 60s and lows Thursday night in the 20s behind and early cold frontal passage. Winds will become gusty overnight as upper shortwave axis approaches and winds increase aloft. Even without full mixing, may see gusts approaching 50 mph towards 12z Friday morning.

Friday remains the main day of concern. A 500 mb jet max of 110 kts will move over the area in the morning behind the shortwave axis. As mixing commences, possibly as early as the 12-15z time frame, surface winds will rapidly increase and approach or exceed warning criteria, continuing through the afternoon. NBM statistics continue to support gusts in the 60-90 mph range, highest in northeast Colorado and west of Highway 25 in Kansas/Nebraska. Mixing heights remain just a bit high, now around 2.5-2.8 km in the afternoon, which is about the only negative factor for blowing dust and may prevent more widespread low visibilities from developing. However, given the magnitude of the wind and antecedent dry conditions, localized plumes of dust storms appear to be likely. Burn scars in Yuma County, Colorado, from last month's strong wind event may be of particular concern as a source region for the dust, which would work downstream into the Kansas/Colorado border area on northwest winds. Winds will diminish Friday night, but still gusting up to 50 mph at times in the early evening. Highs will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows Friday night in the teens.

Another upper shortwave trough moves across the area on Saturday. The 500 mb jet max is not as strong compared to Friday, but still seeing around 90 kts by Saturday afternoon overspreading the area from Colorado behind the shortwave axis. NBM statistics suggest Colorado and west of Highway 25 in Kansas/Nebraska may once again see strong winds meeting High Wind criteria of 58 mph or higher. Blowing dust and fire weather may be additional concerns. Will hold off issuing any watch for now so as not to distract from the wind event on Friday. Highs will be in the 30s and lows Saturday night in the single digits and teens.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 215 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Sunday is another windy day as we remain on the back side of a Great Lakes trough and ahead of a amplified ridge in the Pacific Northwest. This places us under a strong northwest flow with winds up to 15-25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Yuma and Kit Carson county are forecast to have the highest winds from 25-30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. The NBM is showing a 30% probability of gusts around 45 mph to occur for these counties. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values for Yuma and Kit Carson county hover between 20-35. Relative humidity values (RH) for the county warning area (CWA) fall to the lower 20s. Depending on how the high wind events Friday and Saturday play out, fire weather could be a concern Sunday, particularly for Yuma and Kit Carson counties. High winds could further lower RH values and approach critical fire weather conditions. Expect sunny skies with high temperatures forecast in the 50s and lows in the upper teens.

Overnight into Monday, a cold front from the north passes through the region dropping high temperatures to the 40s and bringing a slight chance for precipitation. Most of the models are showing no precipitation with this frontal passage, but a small number of the GEFS ensemble members are showing precipitation. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are from 5-15% for the CWA. Winds are forecast to be mild and variable with gusts around 25 mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday, we enter a more zonal pattern and high temperatures are back in the 50s. Lows are in the upper teens/low 20s. Winds are forecast to be mild and variable with gust up to 25 mph for our Colorado counties.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 943 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period. Winds are forecast to become westerly overnight. Each terminal has the potential for LLWS as a stronger low level jet begins to develop. The LLWS is forecast to last through 16/17Z before the nocturnal inversion wanes. As this occurs wind gusts of 30-35 knots are forecast to occur as well. There is a 30-40% chance of gusts up to 40 knots at GLD through the afternoon. The focus then turns to a cold front moving through mid evening. Have concerns about strong winds with this as well. There is a 10-20% chance that gusts up to 50 knots could occur toward the latter part of the period as well. Guidance is also starting to pick up on an increase in low level moisture and perhaps some rain/snow potential as well. Confidence in the precipitation is less than 10% currently so will leave out of the TAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 423 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Thursday, fire zones (CO) 253, 254, (KS) 13, and 27 are expected to see RH values mid teens for a few hours while winds from the northwest gust up around 40 MPH. As mentioned in the short-term discussion above, today's set up similar to Tuesday's. Tuesday saw the winds mix down drier air, allowing spotty critical fire weather conditions to occur. Thursday is starting closer to critical conditions than Tuesday was, increasing confidence to 80% that Red Flag criteria will be met. This prompted a Red Flag Warning to be issued. Adjacent counties may also see critical fire weather conditions, but have a lower chance than the Warned counties. There is a notable 20% chance that dry air will not mix down and RH values will remain above critical values. Patchy blowing dust is possible, but widespread visibility impacts are not expected.

Friday, winds will be much higher, with gusts up to 65 MPH being possible. RH values are forecast to be lower than Thursday's, potentially nearing 10% if temperatures get into the mid 40s. Blowing dust is also expected, including visibility potentially dropping to less than 1 mile. There is a 30% chance that cooler temperatures occur, and RH values do not drop below 15%. GFDI values across eastern Colorado range from 60-100 Friday.

Over the weekend, we could see continuing critical fire weather conditions with northwesterly winds gusting over 25 MPH and RH values dropping to around 20%. Saturday is the main day for the weekend to watch as there is still potential that that wind gusts of 40-50 knots may still be ongoing.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for KSZ013-027. Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252>254. Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for COZ252>254. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for COZ090>092. NE...Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for NEZ079>081. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for NEZ079>081.