textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected Tuesday. Fire danger will remain high through the week.

- Breezy conditions expected and very patchy blowing dust possible Tuesday midday and afternoon.

- Very warm to even hot temperatures possible late week into the early weekend. Daily record highs and even monthly record highs may be possible.

- Strong cold front will bring an end to very warm temperatures by Sunday. Strong winds and blowing dust may accompany this front.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

16z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated large trough across the midwest, with CWA on the western periphery of large H5 ridge building into the west coast. At the surface, cold front that brought much colder temperatures and strong winds was well to the south of area, located over Gulf of America extending back into northern Florida. Closer to home, sfc ridge continued to build on the Plains as sfc low was developing over Rockies

For Tonight, overall tranquil weather anticipated across region as surface ridge gradually is replaced by developing lee trough. Temperatures will be primary concern tonight as any location still under influence of aforementioned ridge will see the potential for another cold night. With cloud cover expected to increase, do not see things getting as cold as last night, but would not be shocked to see temps dip into the teens in eastern zones like Red Willow, Norton or Graham counties.

For Tuesday, As has been the case recently, fire weather concerns will once again be the focus as westerly winds increase in the wake of advancing warm front. Winds should be supportive of critical fire weather conditions as deep (> 2km) mixed layer develops and taps into the 35kt flow aloft, so have a high degree of confidence (80%) that winds will be persistently gusting to 30 mph to raise fire weather concerns. Relative humidity confidence is much lower however, as this will be a somewhat unusual scenario where there will be increasing dewpoints coming in from the west as very dry continental air mass is displaced to the east. Current forecast leaning towards dry solutions and with deeply mixed airmass tend to think surface humidities will likely crash through the day. As a result, have issued Red Flag Warning and fire weather watch for northern half of the area for tomorrow afternoon.

With dry and breezy conditions and ongoing drought, potential for blowing dust always a concern. Overall, given maximum winds in the expected boundary layer maxing out in the 35-40kt range and overall depth for dust to be distributed through boundary layer would expect only minor issues with plumes immediately next to source regions with little overall impact. With cold front shifting winds more northerly late in the afternoon, understand concern about potential for more organized dust as it passes. However, mixed layer depth is very high on either side of this front without the pronounced shallow boundary layer that often occurs with haboob like events. Additionally winds do not appear to be much stronger behind front than ahead of it, so concur with previous forecast that threat for this is very low (< 2%)

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Anomalously strong H5 ridge will begin to dominate the weather pattern through the rest of the work week. With temperatures warming to near record levels by Friday and Saturday. With no precipitation expected and abundant sunshine, drought expected to worsen and soil will continue to bake and be susceptible to being lofted in instances of strong wind. Wednesday through Saturday, primary concern for hazardous weather will be related to fire danger. With most afternoons seeing RH fall to 10-15% any period of stronger wind will create favorable conditions for rapid fire growth. While organized area of wind not anticipated, 25 mph gusts are generally not hard to be realized in deeply mixed airmass that is anticipated, especially across portions of Eastern Colorado.

Strong cold front possible by late Saturday night into Sunday knocking highs "down" to just 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Deterministic models show a large degree of uncertainty with the timing of this front and resulting temperatures and other impacts on Sunday. While timing of this front will obviously have a big impacts on weekend temperatures, am a little concerned that potential dust storm could occur if timing is during the day Sunday (or even late afternoon Saturday). Soils will be primed due to hot, sunny and dry conditions leading up to the front, and if significant winds can accompany the frontal passage a haboob type scenario could develop. Confidence in this threat is low at this time (10%) as it would require the timing to line up perfectly, but definitely worth watching as the warm and relatively tranquil conditions leading up to the weekend may take focus of weather concerns later in week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 523 PM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours as a warm front gradually moves to the east across the area,causing light and variable winds to shift to the west and increase to 15 to 25kts after 18z. Otherwise, persistent mid level clouds will continue through the night as weak, persistent isentropic lift continues. With atmosphere very stable in this lifted area and very dry below it, do not anticipate any operational impacts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 356 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Updated with latest forecast values 1251 PM Mon Mar 16...

A very strong signal for very warm to hot temperatures is present for later in the week and into the start of the weekend. Some daily record highs and even monthly March record highs are in jeopardy of falling during this period.

Record high temperatures Friday March 20th

Goodland: Record high 90 in 1907.... current forecast 86.

McCook: Record high 85 in 1916 and 1997.... current forecast 87.

Hill City: Record high 88 in 1916... current forecast 88.

Burlington: Record high 87 in 1907.... current forecast 86. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy Saturday March 21st

Goodland: Record high 84 in 1907 and 2011.... current forecast 88.

McCook: Record high 89 in 1910.... current forecast 88.

Hill City: Record high 93 in 1907... current forecast 89.

Burlington: Record high 84 in 2011.... current forecast 87. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Monthly (March) Record Highs:

Goodland: 90 degrees March 20th, 1907

McCook: 93 degrees March 16th, 2015

Burlington: 93 degrees March 19th, 1921

Hill City: 94 degrees March 16th, 2015

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ001. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for KSZ002>004-013>016. CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ252. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ253. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NEZ079. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NEZ080-081.