textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A cluster of storms is forecast to move into the area Saturday evening from Colorado with damaging winds the primary hazard.

- Continued warm through the week with highs in the 90s.

- Storm and Showers chances return on Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 103 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Morning convection has moved out of the area. A weak surface ridge over the forecast area is present which is forecast to keep the area dry for most if not all of the afternoon. A surface high is in place currently across southeastern Colorado and is keeping dew points a little on the lower side which may be one of the issues to the severe weather threat for this evening.

Storms are forecast to develop along the Front Range with a shortwave and move onto the Plains through the afternoon. Through the afternoon will need to keep an eye on pre cluster storms as some guidance indicates a theta e boundary developing from roughly Joes to Russell Springs. Confidence is less than 10% in pre cluster storms. Storms are forecast to cluster together leading to mainly a damaging wind potential with gusts of 60-70 mph possible as the main severe threat although some isolated instances of hail up to ping pong ball is possible as steep lapse rates should make up for minimal CAPE up to 1000 j/kg as shear is forecast to be around 30-35 knots which could support some brief organized updrafts. The main concern for severe weather remains across mainly western portions of Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties (west of Highway 385) as parameters are marginally favorable for dry microbursts with the lacking parameter being that the freezing level is higher than the 100mb mean parcel LCL height. The 0-3km lapse rate is also nearly identical to the dry adiabat which also brings confidence down some and makes me think that any severe wind event would probably be isolated in nature. 16Z HRRR dry microburst parameters do actually get favorable after 01Z as the LCL heights rise above the melting level but 0-3km lapse rates further unsupportive of being even relatively close to the dry adiabat.

Storms are forecast to decay as they cross the Kansas/Colorado line as we lose diurnal heating along with the lack of any synoptic support. Have concern about outflow emanating from the decaying convection which could support wind gusts of 40-60 mph which could pose a fairly considerable issue for firework events this evening. A surface high is forecast move in from the north overnight as winds go light and variable with overnight lows forecast in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area. There does look to be a subtle signal for fog development across eastern portions of the area with the high pressure as winds go light. Confidence is not high enough to introduce fog into the forecast as clouds may not clear out in time but is something that will need to be watched.

Sunday, a surface trough is forecast nudge in from the north and shunt out the high pressure from overnight. As this occurs the pressure gradient along the state line is forecast to increase leading to breezy winds with sustained winds of 15-20 mph forecast. Forecast soundings above the mix layer shows light winds which suggests to me that just a breezy sustained wind is most likely without any significantly higher gusts. High temperatures for the day are forecast to be a little warmer than today as a mid level high pressure system is forecast to develop. High temperatures are forecast in the low 90s across the area. Along the leading edge of the trough some guidance suggests that a few afternoon storms could develop across eastern Colorado. Confidence is around 5-10% at this time of this occurring. Severe weather is not currently anticipated with this activity.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Synoptically for the extended part of the period, Monday there is a ridge set up over the area with the crest over the North and South Dakota border. Tuesday through Thursday a low off the Pacific Northwest begins to move across Canada and this will somewhat de- amplify the ridge. Friday through the weekend the two troughs will begin to set up over the west and east coast and our ridge will begin to amplify and stay over the area. There are some indication that there will be some shortwaves that will make their way through the area as well.

Starting with Monday through Thursday, highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s. Wednesday however there are highs forecast to be in the upper 90s and low 100s for areas south of US Hwy 40 and east of Hwy 83. For those areas there is a 5-15% chance of exceeding 100 degrees. Winds look to remain out of the south then transitioning to come from the east. Gusts look to mainly remain less than 30 mph.

Looking at precipitation chances for the early to mid parts of the work week, Tuesday and Wednesday look to have the best chances. There is what looks to be a shortwave that will move though on each day. Currently PoPs are 20-40% for west of KS Hwy 27 for the afternoon on Tuesday. There does look to be a dryline/boundary in place over the CO/KS border on Tuesday and this could be the lifting factor needed for storm development. There is a 30-50% range for PoPs on Wednesday for the majority of the County Warning Area (CWA). Some Guidance like the GFS does show a boundary/front developing out of Colorado and moving east and this could be the lift factor that could lead to storm development. CAPE each day 1000-1600 J/kg looks to present. Bulk wind shear is in the 20-30 kts range. Given these values there could be severe potential but it would be more on the marginal side.

Friday through Saturday, highs will be in the mid 90s to low 100s. Areas east of KS Hwy 27 and Cheyenne County, CO. The probability of exceeding 100 degrees is around 5-10% for Friday. Guidance is disagreeing with the high temperatures on Saturday. Saturday's probability of exceeding 100 from the LREF is 10-15% where as the NBM's is around 20-35%. However, Guidance has a bit more agreement with the probability of exceeding 105. The NBM has it at 5-10% and the LREF has around 5%. Winds are from the southeast/east for the majority of the two day stretch. Gusts look to remain less than 30 mph. Precipitation chances decrease compared to prior days as there is around a 10% each day for a shower to develop.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Storms are developing across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska. Continuing to monitor for potential reduction in flight categories for GLD as storms approach the terminal. Still anticipating the storms to decay just before or over the terminal. Based on current developing cells have introduced a VCTS for MCK, but confidence remains only around 20-25% in impacts to the terminal itself so left out the PROB30 for now. Storm threat is forecast to be done between 04-06Z. Should a storm impact a terminal damaging winds would be the primary hazard.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.