textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Sunday-Monday, more severe weather is expected during the afternoon and evening hours. All hazards are possible, and will generally favor northern portions of the area.

- Blowing dust will be possible with severe storms. Blowing dust may also occur Monday with wind gusts nearing 50 mph south of U.S. 40.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Early this morning, moisture advection has a 30% chance of leading to patches of dense fog and a 70% chance of causing stratus. These look to lift by the late morning, with the fog lifting a few hours ahead of the stratus.

Today, we're looking at another severe weather outbreak. Before that, temperatures will warm into the 80s in the western CWA and near 100 in the eastern CWA. The fringes of southeastern CWA has a 25% chance of seeing briefly critical fire weather conditions. RH values southeast of a line from Hill City to Leoti are forecast to drop to around 15% while winds from the southwest gust in the 15-30 kts range. The stronger winds and drier air are expected to remain just outside of the CWA Sunday afternoon. However, locations that do see the gusts around 30 kts may also see some isolated plumes of blowing dust.

The severe threat for today is split into two main zones of concern. The western concern looks to fire off of a stationary boundary becoming a cold front. The start time looks to be around 21-23Z, along the western CWA border. Once storms form, they will tap into the mid level winds and rocket to the northeast, likely in the 40-60 kts range. All hazards are once again possible, although slightly weaker than Saturday's. Hail is still the main threat, with maximum reasonable hail size being up to 3 inches with 1-2 inches being more common. Winds will largely be in the 50-70 MPH range, but 90 MPH gusts are possible. The dust threat remains a major hazard for locations that received less than 0.25 inch of rain Saturday afternoon/evening. Locations around Yuma county seem to be the most at risk for the dust potential. The threat for tornadoes is lower as low-level shear is weak, but if a tornado can form, expect a long lived, potentially significant tornado.

The eastern concern will be east of U.S. 83 and may start closer to the 23-02Z time frame. These storms would fire off a surface triple point, assisted by the incoming 500 mb trough. The extent of coverage and initiation zone of these storms is very dependent on how far west the dryline sets-up. The dryline may push farther west into the area, or may move east and remain out of the CWA. The westward movement would expose more of the CWA to these storms while the eastward movement would minimize the threat. As far as hazards go, they are very similar to the western storms, but the threat for long duration, strong tornadoes increases.

Peak timing for the severe threats look to be between 22-04Z, with the severe threat ending by 06Z. Lingering showers and isolated storms may (35% chance) last until close to sunrise. Overnight temperatures look to cool to near 40 in the western CWA and remain in the low 50s in the eastern CWA.

Monday, the bulk of the 500 mb low will move through. In the lower levels, a fast moving, and fairly strong 850 mb low will be ejecting off the southern Rockies. This will cause an east/west warm front to become stationary over the CWA during the midday. The 850 mb setup will be mimicked at the surface, with the boundary likely setting up around the U.S. 40 to KS 96 area. North of this boundary will see temperatures in the topping out in the 50s and 60s, but south of the boundary, temperatures will warm into the 80s. The warm sector will also have a 30% chance at seeing Red Flag conditions being met, but RH values will remain too high north of the boundary.

Once the center of the low pushes east, the boundary will quickly become a strong cold front and northerly winds are forecast to gust in the 35-40 kts range. This creates a couple of hazards, the first of which is a synoptically driven haboob. If a haboob forms, it would only impact areas that have been in the warm sector and quickly move southward, out of the the GLD CWA. But areas impacted should expect a rapid drop in visibilities, likely to brownout conditions. Prime time for blowing dust will be between 20-00Z.

The other potential impact is severe weather. While there is a high chance some additional rain moves through the area Monday afternoon, severe weather looks to be limited to the extreme eastern CWA, east of U.S. 283. Hazards from severe storms that do occur in the CWA would be hail up to 1.5 inches, 60-70 MPH winds, and a brief tornado. Prime time for storms looks to be 19-00Z.

Overnight Monday, temperatures are currently forecast to cool into the 30s, with frost being possible. Current thinking is most of the CWA may need a Frost Advisory for Monday night into Tuesday morning. What is holding us back is waiting to see how the storms Sunday evening modify the path and strength of the low on Monday, and potential lingering cloud cover to keep some of the area too warm for frost. Along and west of KS 27, confidence for temperatures at or below 34 degrees is around 50%, but less than 15% for less than 28 degrees, putting this area at the best chance at receiving a Frost Advisory. Additional, if the precipitation lingers in this area well past midnight, some flurries may mix in. If the precipitation ends early, patchy freezing fog may form as temperatures drop to around 30 and become saturated. East of KS 27 is where the big question remains whether or not a Frost Advisory will be needed.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Tuesday is cooler in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High temperatures are expected in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Our region is forecast to be under a southwest upper-level flow as a trough develops west of the Rocky Mountains throughout the week. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, there is around a 40% chance of showers for the northwest county warning area (CWA).

Conditions remain cool Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures forecast in the 60s. Southwest upper-level flow will persist through the week supporting chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 30-40% for the CWA.

Ensembles are in disagreement on when the aforementioned trough ejects eastward and takes us out of the persistent southwest flow, but it will likely move on after Friday. A slight warming trend begins Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Friday and 80s for Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain for Friday through Saturday with PoPs around 20-30% for the eastern CWA as several shortwaves pass through the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 510 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

For KGLD, IFR to minimum conditions are expected to prevail until around 16-17Z, when ceilings and visibility will be lifting.

For KMCK, IFR conditions will be in and out as the edge of the scattered clouds are near the airport. Conditions will improve back to VFR by 19Z.

For both KGLD amd KMCK, expect winds to be from the northeast to northwest today, with gusts in the 15-25 kts range. We are also forecasting another round of storms to move through the region this afternoon, mainly in the 21-03 time frame, with rain persisting through the night at KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.