textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mild conditions today.

- Windy towards the mid and end part of the week. Blowing dust may be possible. Increasing potential for adverse fire weather.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 144 AM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

Today will be very similar to yesterday as an 850 mb high over Texas extends a mild ridge over the area. This will keep the sky clear and allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 60s for most of the area. Locations with remaining snowpack will likely be capped out around 50 today.

With these higher temperatures, RH values will drop into the upper teens near the Tri-State border. Thankfully winds looks to be pretty weak, largely remaining under 20 kts, so fire weather concerns are minimal.

Overnight low temperatures will be slightly warmer than previous nights. Areas without any snowpack will cool to around 30, potentially staying above freezing. Any remaining snowpack will drop temperatures in the mid 20s.

Early tomorrow morning, a weak trough axis from a low over the Great Lakes region will sweep across the area. This will create a northwesterly 850 mb LLJ that will likely persist until Wednesday midday. RAP, NAM, and GFS guidance are showing a weak shortwave 850 mb ridge moving across the area around 21Z Tuesday. This weakens the LLJ, down to around 10-15 kts from its earlier 30-40 kts flow. If this occurs, our gusts for tomorrow would hit their peak speeds around 18Z at 25-30 kts and weaken throughout the rest of the afternoon. If the shortwave does not occur, 25-35 kts gusts would be likely throughout most of the afternoon. Highest winds look to be in eastern Colorado and around the Tri-State border for Kansas and Nebraska.

Temperatures tomorrow look to be pretty similar to today's, and the snowpacked area should be warming into the upper 50s as the bulk of the snow should have melted. If temperatures warm closer to 70 and/or these winds bring in much drier air than expected, RH values could drop into the low to mid teens, creating critical fire weather conditions. However, there is 60% confidence the current forecast will play out with RH values staying at or above 20%, leading to minimal fire weather concerns and GFDI values in the 15-30 range.

Tuesday night, the main trough axis will enter the CWA and bring with it a cold front. We could see some sprinkles, with some flurries mixed in, across the area between 0-9Z Wednesday. We can also expect winds to pick up, including some northerly gusts around 25-30 kts. These winds and the cloud cover will keep the PBL well mixed, keeping temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

Wednesday, winds behind the cold front will persist, likely leading to frequent gusts in the 20-35 kts range with some 40-45 kts being possible. We cannot rule out the potential for some 50 kts gusts, but forecaster confidence is only about 25% that multiple 50 kts would occur. This is based on 45% NBM potential for a maximum gust greater than 57 MPH and 0% LREF confidence in gusts greater than 50 MPH.

Temperatures Wednesday will be notable cooler, likely topping out in the 40s. This will keep RH values well above critical levels, so the potential for critical fire weather is extremely low. Looking at lapse rates, 0-2 rates in eastern Colorado could reach 8.5 C/km. Combined with the strong winds, there is a 5-10% chance of blowing dust in eastern Colorado. In Kansas and Nebraska, lapse rates look slightly less impressive, around 7-8 C/km, lowering the blowing dust potential to around 2-5%. Additionally, the increased humidity may lower the help to decrease the blowing dust potential, but this is an untested hypothesis.

Wednesday night, a ridge from the west will build in, allowing the sky to clear and give us a break from the winds. This will, however allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s. Compared to the previous 24 hours, Wednesday night is boring.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 303 AM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

Thursday we remain under a strong northwesterly flow as a ridge builds off the west coast. Winds will pick up again Thursday morning as a temperature inversion lifts and mixing is free to occur. The eastern half of the county warning area (CWA) will see winds from 15- 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots. The western half of the CWA will see higher winds from 20-35 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 50s and lows in the 20s. Relative humidity (RH) values are in the lower 20s. With the high winds and warmer temperatures, fire weather could be a concern if winds further decrease RH values.

Winds will calm slightly overnight Thursday into Friday due to our typical diurnal cycle, but pick back up again Friday morning. A trough in the Great Lakes region digs towards our area bringing cooler temperatures and stronger winds. High temperatures are in the low 40s. Winds are forecast to be from the northwest at 25-35 knots with gusts 35-45 knots. The northwest portion of the CWA could see gusts of approximately 50 knots. The NBM is showing probabilities greater than 60% for gusts around 50 knots to occur for the CWA. If the trough shifts further west, we could see higher wind speeds if our CWA ends up under a tighter pressure gradient. If it shifts further east, winds could weaken. RH values are still forecast to be in the low 20s and Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values range from 35-65. These, plus the high winds could lead to critical fire weather conditions. Winds will calm down overnight Friday into Saturday, but wind chill values will drop to single digits.

Blowing dust will be a concern Thursday through Saturday, but Friday will be the highest risk. Low level lapse rates are above 9.5 and mid level lapse rates are below 6. These support mixing and a cap low enough we could see some blowing dust.

How Saturday plays out will depend on where the trough sets up in our region. If the forecast stays on the current track, Saturday will be another high wind day. The northwest portion of the CWA will see the highest wind potential with gusts up to 40 knots. RH values are forecast to be in the low 20s again, so fire weather danger will be increased, especially if multiple days of high winds further decrease RH values.

Sunday and Monday, things return to a familiar warm and calmer pattern. High temperatures are in the 50s and lows in the 20s. Winds will be breezy with the northwest portion of the CWA seeing gusts in the high 20s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 412 AM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. During the day, northwesterly winds will pick up. KGLD will see winds in the 10-20 kts range while KMCK will likely only see occasional gusts near 20 kts. Winds will weaken around sunset, but remain westerly.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.