textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures and dry conditions persist today.

- Light precipitation is possible this evening and overnight. No accumulation is expected.

- Winds up to 50-65 MPH are possible Thursday and Friday. Blowing dust and critical fire weather conditions may accompany the winds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 317 AM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

This morning, a weak trough axis from a low over the Great Lakes region is sweeping across the area. This will create a northwesterly 850 mb LLJ that will generally persist until Wednesday midday. Temperatures today look to be pretty similar to yesterday's, maybe even a couple degrees warmer. The recently snowpacked areas should be warming to around 60 today as around an inch of snow depth was reported Monday morning, meaning most of the snow has likely melted away from yesterday's warm conditions.

These warm temperatures will let us mix into the LLJ, which will be around 30 kts. This will allow northerly gusts around 30 kts to mix to the surface. The warm temperatures will also support RH values dropping to around 20%. There is a 30% chance temperatures warm to 70 degrees near the Tri-State border. This is where dew points will be the lowest, and could drive RH values briefly into the low to mid teens. GFDI values for today are largely in the low 20s. All this to say there is an elevated threat for fire weather concerns today and briefly critical fire weather conditions are possible near the Tri- State border.

0-2 km lapse rates this afternoon are approaching 8.5-9 C/km. Combined with the gusts around 30 kts, this gives a slim ~2% chance of patchy blow dust, once again around the Tri-State border.

Tonight, the main trough axis will enter the CWA and bring with it a cold front. We could see some sprinkles, with some flurries mixed in, across the area between 0-15Z Wednesday. We can also expect overnight winds to pick up, including some northerly gusts around 25- 40 kts. These winds and the cloud cover will keep the PBL well mixed, putting low temperatures right around freezing.

There is a very low (<5%) chance for drizzle instead of sprinkles/flurries around sunrise Wednesday. This stems from the likelihood of having a moist low layer behind the main vorticity, and the moisture layer not extending into the dendritic growth zone. RAP, NAM, and GFS cross sections all show this possibility while having some spotty weak negative Omega. Additionally, IF drizzle does occur, there is a 20% chance temperatures would be below freezing and light ice accumulations would occur. However, it's far more likely that this will present more as very low stratus. Most likely locations to see the drizzle would be along and northeast of a line from Norton, KS to Trenton, NE.

Wednesday, winds behind the cold front will persist, likely leading to frequent gusts in the 20-35 kts range with some 40-45 kts being possible. REFS and HREF guidance is favoring the stronger winds will happen around sunrise, so prepare for a very breezy day.

Temperatures Wednesday will be notable cooler, likely topping out in the 40s. This will keep RH values well above critical levels, so the potential for critical fire weather is extremely low. Looking at lapse rates, 0-2 km rates in eastern Colorado could reach 9-9.5 C/km. Combined with the strong winds, there is a 15% chance of blowing dust in eastern Colorado. In Kansas and Nebraska, lapse rates look less impressive, around 7-8 C/km, lowering the blowing dust potential to around 2-5%. Additionally, the increased humidity may lower the help to decrease the blowing dust potential, but this is an untested hypothesis.

Wednesday night, a ridge from the west will build in, allowing the sky to clear and give us a break from the winds. This will, however allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s. Compared to the previous 24 hours, Wednesday night is boring.

Thursday, either a disorganized Alberta Clipper or a strong trough extending from a persistent Hudson Bay low will move in to the High Plains from the north. This system doesn't know what it wants to be yet, which introduces some notable uncertainty into the forecast. The most likely way this system will play out, based on current guidance, a tilted 500 mb ridge will extend over the region from the west, between the new and previous troughs. In the immediate wake of the ridge axis, some fairly strong vorticity will help mix down some of the mid level momentum Thursday afternoon. Around the same time, an accompanying 850 mb cold front will push through the CWA, with 35-50 kts 850 mb winds behind the front. Thanks to the ridge during the day, temperatures will likely warm into the low 60s, allowing for efficient PBL mixing. This will allow gusts around 35-45 kts to occur across the CWA.

The second most likely scenario is the low pressure feature is slower than models are showing, leading to a weaker pressure gradient, lowering potential gusts to around 25-35. Conversely, if the pressure gradient is stronger, we could see 50-55 kts gusts. In any scenario, eastern Colorado and locations near the Tri-State border will see the strongest winds.

RH values Thursday are only dropping into the mid teens and GFDI values are largely topping out in the 40-55 range. These factors are currently keeping us from issuing a Fire Weather Watch. However, there is 70% confidence in briefly critical fire weather conditions, but only 40-50% confidence in prolonged critical fire weather conditions.

Blowing dust is also a concern for Thursday. Currently, 0-2 km lapse rates range anywhere from 7.5-10 C/km in eastern Colorado and areas near the Tri-State border. 2-2.5 lapse rates are even crazier, ranging from 5.5-9 C/km across the same area. This gives about a 5- 10% chance for blowing dust.

Winds are expected to weaken around sunset Thursday night, but may start gusting up to 30 kts again before sunrise as another cold front pushes through the area in the early morning. Lows look to drop into the 20s by Friday morning. This could lead to some single digit, and near 0, wind chills Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 326 AM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

Friday, a ridge continues to build in the western CONUS and a trough digs south in the Great Lakes region placing our county warning area (CWA) under a strong northwesterly flow. This will bring a high impact weather day with strong winds, blowing dust and fire weather concerns. Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 40s and lows in the mid teens. Wind chill values will be in the single digits for our Colorado counties. Winds will be from the northwest from 25-30 knots and gusts from 35-45 knots. The northwest portion of the CWA is forecast to receive the strongest winds. Winds speeds are forecast to be 30-35 knots and gusts up to 55 knots. The NBM is showing probabilities greater than 65% for gusts around 50 knots to occur for the CWA. Blowing dust is a concern Friday afternoon due to high winds and models beginning to show favorable lapse rates. Low level lapse rates are above 9.5 C/km and mid level lapse rates are below 6.5 C/km. Forecaster confidence is approximately 40% for blowing dust causing visibilities of <1 mile.

Fire weather will also be a concern Friday. Relative humidity (RH) values are in the low 20s for a majority of the CWA. There is a line extending from southern Logan county to northwest Yuma county with RH values approaching critical values of <15%. Given the high winds and low RH values, Red Flag warning criteria is likely to be met. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are elevated Friday, which support a high rate of spread and negatively impact suppression efforts. Values range from 65-75 with the Yuma and Kit Carson counties being on the higher end.

Winds will follow our typical diurnal cycle and calm down after sundown. Winds will pick up again Saturday morning as a trough in the Great Lakes region digs south throughout the day. Winds will not be as severe Saturday, but the northwest portion of the CWA will still see the highest wind speeds. Expect wind speeds of 15-25 knots and gusts from 25-40 knots. Blowing dust is still a concern Saturday due to high wind speeds and borderline favorable lapse rates. RH values are forecast in the low 20s. These may lower to near critical values depending on how Friday plays out. High temperatures remain in the 40s and lows in the teens. Wind chill values approach zero for the Colorado counties and single digits for the rest of the CWA.

We remain under a northwest flow as a trough moves off the east coast Sunday. Winds will still be breezy with speeds of 10-20 knots and gusts of 20-25 knots. Again, the northwest CWA on the higher end of speeds. Unseasonably warm temperatures return Sunday with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the teens. Wind chill values bottom out near zero in the northeast portion of the CWA. Monday continues to be warm with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s. Winds are breezy from 10-15 knots and gusts of 15-20 knots.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 421 AM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the period. Around 1-6Z, KMCK could see some light showers and MVFR stratus move over the airport. This will present an icing threat as surface temperatures during this time will be in the mid to upper 30s and super-cooled water is expected in the first few thousand feet AGL. Otherwise, the defining trait will be northwesterly winds gusting around 20-30 kts most of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 628 AM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

As mentioned in the discussion above, today may see pockets of critical fire weather conditions near the Tri-State border and eastern Colorado. Overall, a low threat, but it's there.

Wednesday is too moist for much fire weather concern, but will be breezy with north-northwesterly gusts up around 40 MPH in eastern Colorado.

Thursday, we start nearing in on critical fire weather conditions. RH values drop into the upper teens west of KS 27 while winds gust around 35-50 MPH in the same area. GFDI values are generally in the 35-50 range, but there are a few locations in Kit Carson county that near 60. Can't rule out needing a Red Flag Warning for Thursday afternoon for eastern Colorado.

Friday is the main day. GFDI values along and north of I-70 and along and west of KS 27 range from 60-75. Winds are currently forecast to gust up a little over 50 kts as RH values drop into the low teens. Friday is the most likely day to need a Red Flag Warning.

Saturday is similar to Thursday, but may have high RH values. There is considerable uncertainty regarding Saturday's impacts since that is day 5 and the most impactful weather will be occurring before Saturday. There is a decent chance Saturday becomes a non-threat day.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.