textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the end of the week.

- Near record to record high temperatures are possible on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1246 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over Mexico extending into the Southern Plains. Zonal flow was in place over the Central Plains north of the ridge. Cloud cover was much less than yesterday due to dry air overhead.

A very pleasant day is expected for the rest of today.

Tonight warm air advection will continue, causing lows to be quite warm. Lows will be near record values for the warmest low for many sites. A pre-frontal trough will move through tonight causing the westerly winds to turn to the northwest.

Tuesday morning a backdoor cold front will move in during the morning. This will cause winds to turn to the south behind the front. Cold air advection will cause highs to be cooler than today, but still roughly 20 degrees above normal. Due to very large dew point depressions in place, am not expecting anything more than some high clouds with the frontal passage.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

The main focus for this part of the forecast is the record temperature potential for Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday the upper level ridge remains in place over the Plains. Westerly winds will aid in warm air advection. This is a similar wind direction that has occurred when temperatures have warmed more than expected earlier this month. As such, confidence is high that highs will be around three degrees warmer than forecast. Relative humidity will fall to less than 20% for the western two thirds of the forecast area, possibly more with warmer highs. However the winds will be similar to today; not high enough to warrant a concern for fire weather conditions.

Thursday and Friday the upper level flow becomes more zonal over the Plains as a long wave trough over Canada flattens the ridge out further, pushing it south. A backdoor cold front may move into the forecast area from the northeast Thursday. Models are in better agreement with this than what was seen yesterday. This lowers confidence that highs will be in the upper 70s. The current forecast for highs on Thursday looks reasonable based on the probabilities of highs exceeding 70F. No precipitation is expected due to the dry environment. Friday highs will be cooler but still be roughly 20 degrees above normal.

Saturday onward is when models differ with the weather pattern. The main difference is regarding the eastward progression of the closed low that moves onshore. More models are coming more agreement that the closed low will progress more to the east instead of southeast. The difference begins to show up with what the models do with the trough once it moves onshore: does it continue east and become absorbed in the long wave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, or does it stall over the West Coast and deepen before moving east sometime early next week. (The mean of the GEFS agrees with the closed low stalling.) There are some models that have a solution in the middle of the two. The AI GFS has a closed low moving east across the CONUS through the weekend. This closed low will be the source for wide spread precipitation wherever it tracks, unless it becomes absorbed in the longwave trough. Ironically models are in better agreement with the weather pattern early next week (northwest flow with a longwave trough over the Eastern CONUS) than they are with the weather pattern this weekend. What can be gleaned from this tangled mess of model data is that a pattern change and cooler temperatures are coming at some point after Christmas with the breakdown of the ridge.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 400 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Ceilings, if any, will be confined to cirrus above 20,000 ft AGL. Light and variable winds this evening and overnight will shift to the SE-SSE and increase to ~13-17 knots during the late morning (~18Z Tue) and persist through the afternoon. Winds will veer to the SSE-S and decrease to ~8-12 knots shortly before sunset (~23Z Tue).. near the end of the 00Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Ceilings, if any, will be confined to cirrus above 20,000 ft AGL. Light and variable winds this evening and overnight will shift to the ESE-SE and increase to ~10-14 knots during the late morning to early afternoon (~18Z Tue) and persist through the remainder of the 00Z TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1206 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Well above average temperatures will persist through the remainder of the week. Some locations may approach monthly (December) record highs. For reference, average highs this time of year are ~40F.

============================== Record Highs for December 24 ============================== Burlington.........79 in 1955 Goodland...........77 in 1955 McCook.............74 in 1964 Hill City..........67 in 2021

============================== Record Highs for December 25 ============================== Burlington.........67 in 1929 Goodland...........74 in 1950 McCook.............70 in 1929 Hill City..........76 in 1950

============================== Monthly (Dec) Record Highs ============================== Burlington.........81 in 1939 Goodland...........83 in 1964 McCook.............81 in 1964 Hill City..........83 in 1964

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.