textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances for severe storms this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts up to 75 mph and flash flooding is possible.

- Today through midday Tuesday will see strong winds with gusts around 35-60 mph.

- Freezing temperatures return Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1129 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

At 500 mb, there is a broad, but fairly strong, trough moving over the Rockies into the Great Plains. Down at 850 mb, the low driving this system is up in the Northern Plains, extending a trough axis southwestward, which is pushing a cold front through the CWA. Another weak 850 mb Colorado lee low is forming under the southern portion of the 500 mb trough. This weak lee low is reinforcing the 850 mb trough axis and surface cold front.

Trailing the cold front is strong northwesterly winds that will pick up about 2-3 hours after the FROPA. We are still expecting widespread 30-45 kts gusts and isolated gusts up to 50-55 kts. The potential for the worst case scenario has dropped to less than 10%, which would include widespread 35-55 kts gusts and isolated gusts up to 65 kts. The strongest winds will be northwest of a line from Tribune, KS to McCook, NE and occur this afternoon into early Tuesday morning, between 23-09Z. The strong gusts will persist until the low pressure system exits to the east and a lee high starts building in. This should occur between 15-21Z Tuesday. During this time, a 500 mb ridge will be pushing in from the Great Basin and over the Rockies, allowing low level pressure to start rising in the lee of the Rockies.

This is expected to be a prolonged strong wind event overnight. Locations in the aforementioned "windier" area may see 18-24 hours of frequent 35+ kts gusts. The duration of the strong winds will put additional strain on infrastructure and overnight darkness may compound travel hazards. Potential for blowing dust is less than 2% due to weak lapse rates and recent moisture.

There is still a 60% chance storms will fire off the cold front in the afternoon hours. Within this potential, there is a 5-10% chance that a broken line of supercells form as the cold front passes a line from Oberlin, KS to Cheyenne Wells, CO. This line has the potential to mix down even stronger winds, up to 60-70 kts. Prime time for strong to severe convection will be 19-01Z with scattered showers trailing and lingering overnight.

With the overnight precipitation, a flooding threat has grown over the past 12 hours. The weaker, southern lee low, as it passes the CWA to the south, may stall the front for 3-9 hours as strong moisture convergence occurs. There is currently about 10-15% confidence this will occur, but if it does a band of efficient precipitation can be expected. Outside of the band, 0.1-0.25" of rain is forecast. Within the band, up to 2-4 inches is possible. If the band does set up, it would be northeast/southwest oriented and be east of a line from Norcatur to Selkirk, KS. This presents a flash flooding threat, mainly between 00-12Z. Recent moisture increases this threat.

Bottom line for the upcoming threats: widespread gusts over 50 kts have a 5-10% chance of occurring; widespread gusts up to 45 kts with isolated gusts up to 50-55 kts has an 80% chance of occurring; 75% confidence 35+ kts gusts persisting for 18+ hours; 5-10% chance of severe storms this afternoon; about a 10% chance of flash flooding in the GLD CWA overnight; blowing dust is not expected to pose a threat.

Highs in the northwestern CWA will likely be capped in the mid 50s with the far eastern parts of the CWA warming to near 70 ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows look to be in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

As mentioned above, Tuesday morning into the midday will be windy. Precipitation is forecast to be exiting to the east before noon. Temperatures are forecast to be in the low 50s, but may be cooler depending on how long the rain and clouds linger. Overnight Tuesday, widespread freezing conditions are forecast as the clouds clear out and winds become weak. No precipitation is expected and the wind from the daytime hours should be able to dry out any damp surfaces, making black ice very unlikely.

Wednesday, the ridge mentioned above will allow mild conditions to persist throughout most of the day. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 50s under sunny skies! In the afternoon and evening hours, a 500 mb low will be crossing over the southern Rockies, allowing an 850 mb lee low to form. The path of this low is forecast to main well south of the CWA, but Greeley and Wichita counties may get scrapped by some showers after 0Z Thursday. Overnight lows will once again cool into the low to mid 30s across the area. All precipitation is forecast to be rain, but there is a 10% chance that some flurries mix in.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 158 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

On Thursday and Friday, the upper-level pattern swings from a zonal flow to mostly northwesterly as the trough starts sliding eastward before a weakening ridge over northern Nebraska moves to the southeast. This should allow a slight warming trend with afternoon highs as temperatures are forecast to rise from upper 40s and low 50s on Thursday to upper 50s on Friday. However, morning lows are still expected to be at or just above freezing before dawn. Clouds are also expected to decrease over these two days with winds shifting from the south to the southwest as a weak surface high pressure slides in from the west.

Over the weekend, it is expected that a broad trough system would follow through the area on Saturday and start to dig to the southeast. At the same time, a secondary ridge pattern starts to form to the west and amplify to the northeast. With our area in between these two features, we can expect a cold front to pass through and could allow a small chance (15%) for rain overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning. With this, winds are forecast to pick up from the north being between 15 and 20 mph. There is some uncertainty on Sunday regarding the upper- level pattern as ensemble spread increases to the southwest and could push the core of the broad trough into Texas. If this does happen, then this would allow the upper-level pattern to be more northerly and could bring in even more cooler air than anticipated on Sunday. There is low confidence (20%) that this would happen. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be similar to Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 359 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

MVFR conditions are forecast to persist until the until the late morning for KGLD and KMCK. Showers and light fog will persist as well until around sunrise. Over the next few hours, off and on storms may be impacting the airports. North-northwest winds will continue gusting in the 30-45 kts range until the late morning, then they will gradually weaken through the afternoon hours.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.