textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of northwest Kansas today, mainly south and east of Goodland where warm/dry conditions and SW winds at 15-25 mph w/gusts to 35 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth this afternoon.

- On Tuesday, continued warm/dry conditions and stronger SW winds may lead to dangerous fire weather over portions of the area during the afternoon and early evening, especially south of Interstate 70.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 225 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Synoptic Overview: Shortwave energy rounding the base of a broad trough along the southern Pacific Coast today will slowly track E across the Intermountain West/Desert Southwest (tonight), the 4-Corners (Tue) and central Rockies (Tue night). An associated mid-latitude cyclone will develop/deepen in the lee of the Colorado Front Range (Tue) and track east

Today-Tonight: With relatively little change in the upper level pattern during the past 24-hr, i.e. WSW to SW flow aloft between an east CONUS ridge and a broad west CONUS trough, expect sensible weather conditions similar to Sunday.. including a similar potential for marginally critical fire weather over portions of northwest KS, mainly south and east of Goodland where a Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon.

Tue-Tue night: Challenging forecast. A tightening MSLP to 850 mb height gradient and deep vertical mixing (possibly up to 550-500 mb or ~12-14 KFT AGL) on the east and southeast periphery of a deepening lee cyclone in Colorado will foster noticeably stronger SW winds over portions of the area, especially south of I-70 in Kansas during the afternoon and early evening when/where forecast soundings via the 00Z 04/13 GFS indicate 30-40 knot SW flow throughout the mixed layer.. even stronger (40-50 knots) with southern extent into southwest KS. However, the northern extent/magnitude of SW winds (and robust/dangerous fire weather) will highly depend on the precise evolution of the lee cyclone, which.. in all likelihood.. will track directly over some portion of the NWS Goodland county warning area during the afternoon and evening. In this particular pattern/setup, guidance suggests that precipitation chances will be far less dependent on the precise evolution of the lee cyclone, i.e. most, if not all, of the Goodland CWA will thoroughly be situated within the dry slot.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Shortwave trough axis will be traversing the area on Wednesday with widely scattered light rain showers in the wraparound. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures behind the associated cold front, northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph and afternoon relative humidity in the teens will combine for another possible day of critical fire weather. Main concern would be western and especially southwestern areas where humidity will be lowest (Colorado/Kansas border area). On Thursday will be between systems with a southwest flow aloft. Models not showing any embedded waves at this time so should be dry. The downsloping winds will dry out the low levels and humidity is forecast to drop to near 10% in the entire area. There is also a modest increase in wind speeds with gusts of 25-35 mph, highest south of Interstate 70. So, critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible. Next upper trough will be approaching the Rockies Thursday night and emerge onto the adjacent plains on Friday. Associated surface cold front will be traversing the forecast area at that time. Currently looks to be a dry front with the lead dry line sweeping the deeper moisture and precipitation well east of the area. Ahead of the front critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible. Operational models show the front bisecting the area at 18z lying roughly along Interstate 70, continuing south through the afternoon. North winds will be gusting 35-45 mph behind the front. Wraparound precipitation, in the form of snow, will develop in northeast Colorado Friday afternoon and then move into the area Friday night, but weakening as the upper support moves out. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensembles show accumulations of less than one inch. Any snow will be accompanied by gusty north winds of 25-35 mph. May see some lingering light rain/snow showers into Saturday, but not expecting anything significant and would not be surprised if it was dry. North winds continue to be gusty at 35-45 mph, but relative humidity is forecast to stay above 20% so may get a respite from the fire weather. Unfortunately that may not be the case for Sunday with gusty south winds, milder temperatures and lower humidity.

Temperature trends for the period will start above normal on Wednesday (70s), then much above normal on Thursday (80s), near normal on Friday north of the front (50s and 60s) but above normal ahead of it (70s and 80s), below normal on Saturday (50s), and slightly above normal on Sunday (60s). Freezing temperatures will be possible both Saturday and Sunday mornings with lows in the 20s, otherwise lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals with cloud cover confined to cirrus at or above 15,000 ft AGL. Light ESE to S winds will prevail through late Monday morning. Winds will veer to the WSW and increase to 15-20 knots during the early to mid afternoon. Winds will become light and variable Monday evening, after sunset, as a broad low pressure system in Colorado tracks eastward over the Tri-State Area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 AM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Today: Marginally critical fire weather conditions (similar to Sunday) are expected over portions of northwest KS today, mainly south and east of Goodland where temperatures will reach the mid-upper 80's, humidity will bottom-out around 10% and SW winds at 15-25 mph may gust up to 35 mph, at times. For the remainder of the area, light (10-20 mph) WSW to SW winds will limit critical fire weather potential.

Tuesday: Increasing potential for robust/dangerous fire weather on Tuesday, especially south of I-70 during the afternoon. Expect similarly warm/dry conditions but with stronger (25-35 G 45 mph) SW winds. Both the northern extent and magnitude of critical fire weather conditions will highly depend on the evolution and track of a deepening low pressure system in Colorado during the day.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ004-015-016-028-029- 041-042. CO...None. NE...None.