textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday with development along a dry line in Colorado. Supercells will be possible capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday with damaging winds and blowing dust the main hazards.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as well with a Fire Weather Watch issued for Colorado and adjacent Kansas counties for Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Shortwave trough rotating around a closed low in Alberta will trigger isolated convection this afternoon along the Colorado Front Range and the lee trough in the eastern plains. Some of these may into Kit Carson and Yuma counties late this afternoon and early evening before dissipating. Locally strong wind gusts of up to 50 mph will be possible. Tonight, low clouds will move in from the southeast overnight and into Monday morning. Any fog chances look to be very isolated.

On Monday, southwest flow continues between a ridge in the southern plains and the upper low in Canada. There appears to be another weak embedded wave in the afternoon that provides at least some synoptic scale lift. HRRR has joined the RRFS in depicting a dry line across Colorado that by mid afternoon will be located roughly across Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties northwest to near Fort Morgan. 3-km NAM still depicting the dry line much further west all the way to the Front Range. HRRR/RRFS initiate convection along the dry line around 21z which will move northeast into an environment that will be moderately unstable with 2000-3000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 0-6 km shear of 40 kts. Both models show discrete supercells that will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two through the early evening hours. Coverage may be somewhat limited due to the weak overall forcing. Storms move northeast and out of the area after 03z with just a few lingering showers or weaker thunderstorms through 06z.

On Tuesday, will continue with the same pattern with southwest flow but a broader trough moving into the northern Rockies in the afternoon with accompanying falling heights into Colorado and western Kansas. At the surface, southwest winds will push the dry line east to roughly a McCook to Hill City line by 00z as depicted by the RRFS. The better instability will be further east in north central Kansas, but weaker instability will be present near the dry line, then rapidly dropping off west in the dry air. Deep layer shear will be weaker than Monday at around 30 kts. Models do show scattered afternoon convection developing in the dry air with the approaching trough. This area will be very hot with temperatures near 100 and inverted-v soundings yielding DCAPE of 2500-3000 j/kg. Not surprisingly, 3-km NAM shows wind gusts of 55-65 kts with these storms. In addition to the damaging wind threat, may also have blowing dust and localized dust storms with the dry conditions. Storms move east and out of the area after 03z.

The hot and dry conditions on Tuesday will combine with gusty southwest winds and dry fuels for a risk of critical fire weather conditions in northeast Colorado and adjacent counties in northwest Kansas. Could see those conditions extending another column of counties east eventually, but presently that is where the highest confidence is at for a Fire Weather Watch.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

***Synopsis***

Broad troughing at 500-mb looks to be moving in overhead Wednesday morning, with several shortwave troughs embedded in the larger feature. These shortwave features would each have their own attendant surface low pressure. A weak cold front looks to be traversing the forecast area Wednesday morning, before the second shortwave passes Wednesday evening to provide a stronger cold front. Northerly winds may persist on Thursday through the afternoon hours. Forecast guidance begins to diverge a bit more by Friday, as GEFS amd EC members are about evenly split on whether a surface high or low will be in place across the Central High Plains. GEFS and EC 500- mb mean spread guidance does suggest that another trough may be slowly moving south-southeastward out of Southwest Canada beginning Friday, which may support the low a bit more. However, even if the surface low is able to form, the exact location is uncertain, which could influence our weather as well.

***Wednesday/Thursday***

High temperatures are forecast to lower a bit Wednesday, but are still in the 90s across the County Warning Area (CWA). Hot conditions in addition to northwesterly to westerly surface flow throughout the day would promote dry conditions, with relative humidities (RH) in the low to mid teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place Wednesday afternoon, with forecast wind gusts as high as 30 mph. The greatest risk appears to be across Eastern Colorado, where LREF guidance shows a 40% chance or greater for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard, alongside NBM guidance which suggests a 50% chance or greater for wind gusts to meet criteria. These probabilities may reach as high as an 85% chance for RH and 90% chance for wind gusts in far western portions of Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed on Wednesday has decreased a bit, but is still around 15-20% for these Eastern Colorado Counties.

As northerly winds look to persist on Thursday, highs are forecast to drop further into the 80s. However, dry conditions are favored to remain, with RH values in the low to mid-teens again. Wind gusts are forecast to weaken throughout the day Thursday, but could still be capable of 25-30 mph in some areas, particularly in Eastern Colorado. This zone still has a 1 in 3 chance or greater that wind gusts meet criteria for critical fire weather during the early afternoon hours, and as high as a 80% chance for Northwest Yuma County. Still, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday is only around 5% or so since wind gusts are forecast to weaken through the afternoon, and not meet the 3-hr duration for the warning.

***Friday-Sunday***

Again, model guidance begins to diverge by Friday afternoon, with uncertainty in whether a surface high or surface low will be present across the Central High Plains. NBM 75th-25th percentile spread in maximum temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees on Friday, and 10 to 20 degrees on Saturday, with 75th percentile values in the 100s both days in some locations. This would be more in line with solutions showing a surface low near the CWA, establishing southerly flow across the area. This solution may also be associated with precipitation. NBM 48-hr precipitation guidance suggests that activity between Friday and Saturday combined has up to a 50% chance for greater than 0.1 inches to fall. This activity may be associated with showers and thunderstorms, as LREF guidance suggests anywhere from a few hundred to a few thousand J/kg of CAPE (a measure of instability) to be present. Thunderstorms in this scenario could become severe if LREF 75th percentile or greater 500-mb winds can be experienced (35 kts or greater). Otherwise, storms would likely be weaker in nature.

If the surface high is allowed to form, temperatures could fall as low as the upper 70s Friday and Saturday. Precipitation may also be lacking under this scenario. While GEFS and EC members are split on which scenario occurs, GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance shows a trough approaching the forecast area from the northwest, which could slightly favor the solution with the surface low setting up near our area. Going into Sunday, cooler conditions appear more likely regardless of which scenario occurs, as the high either remains in place or the low moves off to the south, allowing a cold front to cross the area. Sunday's highs are currently forecast in the 70s and lower 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 452 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through this evening. Overnight, low clouds and fog will develop once again, with IFR ceilings likely at KGLD, but may be MVFR at KMCK. The fog will be patchy in nature, but brief visibility reductions may occur early in the morning at either terminal. Clouds and fog will burn off by mid to late morning with a return to VFR at both terminals.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ001-013-027. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ252>254. NE...None.