textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening in Colorado and south of Highway 96 in Kansas. Flooding remains possible through tonight from any storm that develops due to saturated soils.

- A marginal risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening in Colorado and perhaps adjacent areas of Kansas through the early evening.

- Hot, dry and windy over the weekend with fire weather concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A very moist air mass remains over the area with precipitable water values ranging from 1.3 to 1.7 inches. Easterly flow around a surface low over southeast Colorado continues to advect moisture into the region. Extensive cloud cover and scattered rain showers have limited instability along and north of Interstate 70 to near zero. However, south of I-70 latest mesoanalysis from SPC shows up to 1000 j/kg of SBCAPE in far southern parts of the area, but that begins to decrease later this afternoon as surface winds back to northeast and the cooler and more stable air begins to move into those areas as well. CAMs show convection initiating this afternoon along the Front Range in Wyoming and Colorado with another subtle wave in the zonal flow aloft. Storms make some eastward progress across the plains before weakening as they encounter the stable air in our area late this afternoon and evening. Other storms will develop in southwest Kansas near the surface low and front, but move east and not reach the area. Cannot completely rule out a stray severe storm, mainly in western or southern areas, but overall the severe threat appears low. However, given the moist environment and saturated soils, at least some flooding threat remains even from weaker thunderstorms should they develop, so plan on keeping the Flash Flood Watch through 06z tonight. Patchy fog will develop this evening and persist into Friday morning, possibly dense at times.

After morning fog and clouds dissipate, should see more sun across the area Friday afternoon. Weak instability develops across eastern Colorado with the Refs mean showing 500-1000 j/kg of SBCAPE, but decreasing to less than 500 j/kg in Kansas and Nebraska. Deep layer shear is around 40 kts. An upper trough moving into the Great Basin will result in rising heights upstream over the Central Plains. CAMs initiate convection along the Front Range with an embedded weak wave in the southwest flow. Scattered storms migrate east through the late afternoon and early evening through the instability axis. There is a low probability for a severe storm or two making it as far east as the Kansas border, with an accompanying risk for large hail and damaging winds, before weakening through the evening hours into Kansas and Nebraska.

Saturday and Sunday...the trough over the Great Basin consolidates into a closed upper low which slowly moves into the Northern Rockies. The ridge over the Southern Plains strengthens and moves into the Midwest. This leaves the Central Plains under southwest flow both aloft, and increasingly at the surface. Breezy to windy southwest winds will dry out the low levels and with no discernible forcing precipitation is not expected. Temperatures will warm into the 90s on Saturday and 90s to lower 100s on Sunday. Afternoon relative humidity minimums will drop into the teens in Colorado and adjacent Kansas counties on Saturday, and as far east as Highway 25 on Sunday, and combined with the winds will result in fire weather concerns. Fuels will be the big question with the heavy rainfall that has occurred the past week in much of the region and may end up mitigating the expected hot, dry and windy conditions from a fire weather perspective.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Friday, our region is forecast to transition out of a mostly zonal pattern into a weak ridging pattern with an incoming trough west of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s to 80s with around a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon/evening. Storm coverage will likely be limited due to the upper-level ridge pattern, but isolated storms could produce large hail and strong winds. Saturday and Sunday will be hot and dry with highs forecast in the 90s to 100s. Relative humidity (RH) values will drop into the low teens Saturday and Sunday afternoon along with wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible. Given the recent substantial rainfall across the county warning area (CWA), this lessens fire weather concerns, though conditions will continue to be monitored.

Conditions cool slightly in the wake of a cold frontal passage Monday. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s to 90s for Monday and Tuesday. Potential for a more active pattern returns after Tuesday as an incoming trough is forecast to move through our region. Low confidence on specifics since this is the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MVFR ceilings likely to persist through this afternoon at both KGLD and KMCK with low level easterly winds, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Tonight, ceilings will lower to IFR with patchy fog developing. There may be a period of VLIFR conditions around sunrise Friday morning due to low ceilings and reduced visibility in fog. The fog will burn off fairly early Friday morning, but the low ceilings will likely persist through the remainder of the TAF period.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1119 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Over the past 24 hours, up to an estimated 6 inches of rain has fallen across the CWA. This created a flash flooding threat in the early morning hours, and is now an areal flooding threat. As of 16Z, we have received multiple reports of flooded roadways in southern Logan county.

We are expecting additional showers and storms to move through over the next 24 hours. This additional precipitation prolongs the flooding and flash flooding threat into the afternoon and evening hours. Additional precipitation totals by tomorrow morning may be as much as 1-2 inches. This precipitation may fall over locations that have received 1-6+ inches over the past few days. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 6Z for this threat. The worst of the rain has already fallen, and the remaining Watch is to ensure everyone is prepared for any lingering compounding flooding threats.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through this evening for Ksz003>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. CO...Flood Watch through this evening for COZ090-091. NE...Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ079>081.