textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chance for showers/storms heading into the weekend.

- Marginal Risk for severe storms over a limited portion of the area today through Saturday. Localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are the main threat. Locally heavy rainfall and localized nuisance flooding possible.

- Highs in the 80s and 90s are expected through Saturday, with today being the warmest.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The Dense Fog Advisory expired at 900 am MDT (15Z). As of 855 am MDT, fog had dissipated across the majority of the advisory area. In Norton and Red Willow counties, where fog persists, observational trends during the past hour indicate that rapid improvement is already underway.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 221 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas along and north of U.S. 36 until late this morning. Visibility is forecast to drop to 1/4 or less, leading to hazardous driving conditions. There looks to be a fairly sharp boundary of where the fog ends, which is a warm front from a lee low in central Colorado. A few showers are also expected to move northward this morning with the warm front, ending around sunrise. With the combination of fog, stratus, showers, and warm front, low temperatures look to remain in the low to mid 60s for most of the CWA this morning.

After sunrise, as the low strengthens coming out of the Rockies and the inversion burns off, we are expecting to see southerly winds sustained in the 15-20 kts range with gusts 25-35 kts range. This will draw in ample WAA. Locations along and west of KS 25 may have some compressional warming from a slight southwesterly component. This will work to push out any lingering stratus and fog by noon. Additionally, these factors will warm temperatures into the 90s for most of the area, and areas along and southeast of a line from Mingo to Tribune have a 40% chance of exceeding 95 degrees.

With the strong WAA and potential for gusts around the 35 kts mark, there is a 15% chance for blowing dust today. 0-2 km lapse rates will be well above 9.5 C/km for locations that warm to around 92 or higher, which is most of northwest Kansas. However, 2-2.5 km lapse rates also being fairly high and mixing heights being over 5,000 feet, it's likely that any lofted dust will create hazy skies and worsen air quality, versus impact visibilities. Also, soil moisture in the southern CWA is largely above 10%, potentially minimizing the blowing dust source regions.

Around 22-01Z, the 850 mb low, under the 500 mb trough axis, will be moving across northeastern Colorado. This will cause storms to form over this area, but there is notable disagreement for location of the storms. There is 40% confidence that a group of storms will form in northeastern Colorado and travel northeast, missing the CWA altogether. There is a 35% chance that this cluster of storms expands as far southeast as St. Francis, but quickly moves northeast out of the area. This has a 10% chance of bringing in storms that produce winds up to 60 MPH, or if storms begin training over the same location, a flooding risk. There is a 25% chance that both the northeastern Colorado cluster impacts the area with the same threats, as well as another cluster of storms that forms near Lamar, CO and moves to the northeast off of another, weaker lee low. The threats for the southern cluster would mainly be flooding, but a microburst could produce winds nearing 60 MPH. Convection should be exiting the CWA by 6Z.

The northwestern CWA has a 30% chance at seeing some patchy fog or stratus early Friday morning, but the rest of the CWA should remain free of low clouds and fog. Temperatures are forecast to be about 2- 4 degrees warmer than this morning.

Friday, we expect to see a stationary front set up in the southeastern CWA, a remnant of the Thursday night convection and low. This will lead to a a notable temperature and wind gradient around this boundary. To the southeast of the front, temperatures will likely warm into the mid 90s with southwesterly winds gusting around 25-30 kts. To the northwest of the front, temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, but winds will favor a northerly direction and be fairly light. Exact location of where the front will stall is still an unknown, but it looks to favor an area around Hill City to Tribune.

Wherever this boundary sets up, we could see some afternoon and evening convection fire off of it. Shear along the boundary appears to be fairly weak with inverted-V sounding, making the most likely threat a microburst.

However, the primary threat for severe weather will be coming from a quick moving Colorado lee low, stemming from another shortwave trough at 500 mb from a northwest CONUS low. Contrary to what the SPC Day 2 outlook shows, there is a notable risk of severe weather for the majority of the CWA. The low and associated cold front look to start firing off storms west of the CWA around 21-23Z and push into the CWA within a couple hours. All hazards are possible with these storms, especially if the convection forms into a QLCS, like the 0Z NAMNest shows. Gusts up to 75 MPH, 1.5 inch hail, a brief tornado, and flash flooding would be the main threats. However, if it is more disorganized as the 6Z HRRR shows, microbursts up around 65-70 MPH, 1 inch hail, and localized flooding would be the primary threats. The convective threat would likely persist until around 6- 9Z. Overnight lows would range from the mid 50s to upper 60s, depending on how early the cold front moves through.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 251 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Synoptically, on Sunday morning an upper level trough looks to begin moving through the Tri-State Area, potentially with an associated weak jet streak. Come Monday, the trough begins to move eastward and out of the area. Our upper level flow should then return to come from the west until around Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

High temperatures for the long term look to remain cooler than previous days, with highs mainly in the 70s. The warmest day of the period looks to be Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for the majority of the CWA. Winds are forecast to be light and variable throughout the late weekend into the early work week. During this period, there are chances for the majority of the area to see typical afternoon showers/storms. Sunday currently looks to have the greatest chance of seeing precipitation. NBM guidance shows around a 30-60% chance of exceeding 0.1 inches of precip from the early morning, and decreasing in the afternoon. Monday through Wednesday the Probability of Precipitation is around 20-40% each afternoon. Guidance indicates lower values of CAPE and moderate shear, which would lean more towards showers than severe storms.

Beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, uncertainty in the forecast begins to increase. For Tuesday night, guidance is hinting at troughing in the Western CONUS. By Wednesday morning, an upper level ridge is expected to be located over the Southern US / Gulf region, with signs of a weak trough moving through the Northern Plains. The primary uncertainty lies in how strong the high will be, where its center will locate, and whether the weak trough to the west moves quickly, slowly, or remains nearly stationary. Guidance indicates the center of the ridge could be as far north as the AR/MO/OK border or as far south as the Gulf. Certain models show the trough sweeping through in a single day, while others keep it near stationary over the AZ/CA/NV border. The exact locations of the ridge and trough will impact our precipitation chances for Wednesday. It will be interesting to see how guidance handles this upper level pattern uncertainty as we get closer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 915 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

GLD: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. S-SSW winds at ~10 knots will increase to 15-25 knots during the late morning and further increase to 20-30 knots with gusts to ~35 knots this afternoon. Breezy S to SW winds will persist through the evening then decrease to 10-15 knots overnight.

MCK: LIFR ceilings and fog at the McCook terminal are expected to lift/scatter by late morning to early afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter, through the remainder of the TAF period. East winds at ~10 knots will become southerly and increase to 15-25 knots this afternoon. Breezy S to SW winds will persist through the evening then decrease to 10-15 knots overnight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.