textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Air temperatures nearing 100-105F are forecast through Tuesday. Heat indices may approach/briefly meet 105F along and east of Highway 83 in Kansas.

- Repeat of yesterday with the storm activity this afternoon/evening; straight- line wind gusts being the primary threat.

- Storm chances continue daily the next few days.

UPDATE

Issued at 853 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The environment has stabilized and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Upper air analysis shows the ridge over the Four Corners Region becoming more flat than yesterday. Water vapor imagery shows a corridor of moisture extending west from the forecast area toward the mountains; cloud cover is increasing in this corridor.

This afternoon the cloud cover should persist into the mid afternoon before clearing some. There may be a couple hour clearing in the clouds before the next round of storms move in from the west. The lingering cloud cover may allow temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than what is forecast. Meanwhile the line of storms should move into the forecast area around 5 PM. The environment looks very similar to yesterday, high cloud bases low level jet (LLJ) nose forming to the south late afternoon, and an upper level short wave trough moving in this evening. Dew points continue to be higher going north in the forecast area, and deep layer shear slightly increases northward too. Main threat will be wind gusts up to 70 MPH with any storms.

This evening the upper level short wave trough continues moving eastward across the forecast area, filling as it exits CO. Meanwhile the LLJ nose will move northward. This added source for convergence should cause storm coverage to increase, or atleast remain the same as the storm wave trough fills. A secondary effect will be the LLJ nose limiting how far east the storm activity will go. With the short wave trough filling, am not expecting storm activity to continue much past the LLJ nose during the evening. Where the LLJ nose sets up will determine the eastward extent of the storm activity. Storm activity should end before midnight.

There may be a rather narrow window for large hail to occur this evening. As the storm activity moves east the deep layer shear will weaken as the winds decline with the ridge strengthening. The large hail threat should decline as the deep layer shear weakens. Am thinking the hail should be quarter size at largest.

Model ensembles focus the severe wind threat over CO, with the wind threat declining as storms exit CO. This seems reasonable given the upper level short wave trough weakening as it moves eastward with the ridge strengthening. The high end value for wind gusts is 70 MPH, with the mean value being around 40 MPH

Models did a poor job with the timing of the storm activity yesterday and last night. Given the same environment, confidence is moderate that the current timing will be accurate. If the same trend continues from yesterday, the storms will move in one to two hours later than what is forecast.

Tuesday will be similar to today. The ridge will remain unchanged and possibly intensify slightly more. Meanwhile another upper level short wave trough will move in from the west during the late afternoon/early evening. The model data differs regarding how strong this trough will be; if it will only extend over the southwest part of the forecast area or if it will extend over all of Eastern CO. Current model guidance is favoring the short wave trough only being over the far southwest part of the forecast area. However the data yesterday did kept the short wave trough shallow enough to not even move into the forecast area. Straight-line winds will continue to be the threat with any storms that form.

Highs for Tuesday afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than today. The heat index values are forecast to briefly reach 105F for locations east of Highway 83. Currently am not anticipating needing an advisory as the heat has been communicated other ways already.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Wednesday is looking to be our final day of unseasonably warm temperatures for the county warning area (CWA). High temperatures are forecast in the 90s to 100s Wednesday. Winds will overall be light, but afternoon gusts around 25 mph are possible for the northwest CWA. After Wednesday, our region is forecast to transition to a weak ridging pattern aloft with ensembles showing a persistent surface low setting up somewhere in western Kansas. This will start a much needed cooling trend for the CWA. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s to 90s for Thursday. The cooling trend continues through the weekend with high temperatures forecast in the 70s to 80s Friday through Monday.

Starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing through the end of the forecast period, chances for precipitation are plentiful throughout the entire CWA. Currently, the the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has our CWA outlooked for varying degrees of severe weather potential with the northern CWA being the highest at a slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday. Model soundings are showing less than 1000 J/kg of CAPE, 0-6 km shear around 30-40 knots and strong low to mid level lapse rates. Main hazards are expected to be large hail and severe winds if storms are able to form. Where the best chances for severe weather to occur will ultimately be dependent on where in western Kansas the surface low sets up. If the low sets up a bit further south, severe weather coverage could increase south of I-70. Model soundings are also showing precipitable water values above 1 inch throughout the CWA. Heavy rainfall and flooding potential will be a concern for any storms that form, regardless of severity. Slow moving storms and any training storms will have the highest potential for flooding.

Thursday through at least Sunday, chances for showers and thunderstorms continue for the area due to multiple rounds of embedded shortwaves passing through the region. The late afternoons and evenings will be our best chances for precipitation each day with PoPs maxing out around 80% for the western CWA and decreasing further east. With multiple days of widespread precipitation in the forecast, flooding potential will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1000 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable starting from the west and gradually swing clockwise until they are mostly out of the east towards the end of the period. There is a less than 5% chance for visibilities less than 5SM after 4Z for both KGLD and KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.