textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Northwesterly winds today will be gusting up around 40-45 MPH today.

- Windy conditions possible again mid through late week.

- Fire weather conditions increase as the week goes on; exception Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 501 PM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

Added in some low chances of precipitation (5-10%) across the northeast part of the area through the next few hours. An area of mid level moisture associated with a modest 500mb vort max looks to clip the area this evening. RAP cross section analysis does show around -5 microbars of lift near the surface as well but in a dry layer. Thinking that sprinkles/flurries would be the most likely outcome given the dry air at the surface which is characterized by 20-30 degree dew point depressions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1001 AM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

Sunshine has slowly been increasing in coverage across the area through the morning hours. As the sunshine breaks through, temperatures should warm into the 40s for the afternoon hours. The exception is for locales south of US 40 that still have snow on the ground as they are likely to peak in the 30s. As temperatures warm and we begin to mix out, winds and wind gusts should increase, especially around the Tri-State border area. With winds forecast to be around 30-35 kts between 850-700mb, gusts should generally be in the 30-40 mph range for the Tri-State border area with maybe a few gusts near 50. The rest of the area is more likely to see gusts in the 20-35 mph range.

Tonight, the upper trough is forecast to push more to the east, leading to the high pressure over spreading the area and weakening the pressure gradient. This should allow winds to lighten to around 5-10 mph. In spite of the light winds and skies that are forecast to be mostly clear, temperatures should be a bit warmer tonight in the 20s with higher dewpoints across the area. Locales with snowpack still in place could still drop into the teens.

Tomorrow, the area is forecast to be under broad northwest flow as the upper ridge tries to push a little more east. With this, winds should be light through the day, with speeds around 10 mph and maybe a few gusts around 20 mph. The lighter winds are what is keeping the fire weather concern down, as relative humidity is forecast to drop into the teens. The combination of dewpoints in the teens and twenties with temperatures warming into the 50s due to warm air advection and mostly sunny skies are the reason we are forecast to be dry.

Tomorrow night, there is a low chance that some mid to high level moisture will move over the area and keep cloud cover over the area. If this occurs, temperatures would likely stay in the 30s. Otherwise, similar conditions to Saturday night with temperatures in the 20s and light winds around 5 to 10 mph are forecast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

Ridging across the western CONUS putting the region in northwest flow is forecast to be prevalent essentially for the duration of the forecast period. Above normal temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s remains forecast for the majority of the work week as well before a series of cold front associated with low pressure systems across the northern Plains and the Great Lakes moves through the area mid week and into the weekend.

First off mid week, watching a weak embedded shortwave within the flow that may lead to some light rain showers Wednesday morning. Both GFS and ECMWF cross section analysis both show an increase in moisture from around 850-700mb along with -2 microbars of lift in the same layer as well. Temperatures currently look to remain warm enough for it just to be just rain. After that the remainder of the period looks to remain dry but will have to continue to monitor for any additional subtle waves that longer range guidance is not picking up on yet.

The main weather feature that is being watched closely is the potential for strong to damaging winds mid week and into the weekend. These winds will be associated with the low pressure systems mentioned earlier. Overall good consensus with longer range guidance showing a large area of 45-60 knot 850mb winds. The key to how strong the winds will be is where will be the pressure gradient set up at with this. GEFS spaghetti guidance does show a westward trend with this which is raising a flag that damaging winds could be on the table but is flirting closely if it shifts to far west that the pressure gradient would not be as strong and winds would be weaker. Currently confidence in wind gusts of 58 mph or higher is around 20-30%. Blowing dust would also be a concern as well especially with the later in the week system as low level lapse rates are unstable but as in the previous discussion mixing heights may be to high that any higher surface dust concentrations would get filtered out into the atmosphere.

Fire weather is also a concern for the week as well. Monday could see some locally critical conditions for an hour or two as gusts may approach 30 mph across Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS), Kit Carson, Sherman counties. Thursday and Friday may have heightened concerns especially if the upper tier potential of the wind occurs even if humidity doen't fall into the mid teens. Friday however could be countered if temperatures do fall lower than currently forecast into the 30s which as a result would help keep humidity a little higher than forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 354 PM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

**520pm MT Update: Some lift is moving across near the MCK terminal currently. Due to dry air at the surface would be surprised if another other than sprinkles/flurries would occur. The potential for a light rain or snow shower is less than 10%. This looks to be the case through around 05Z**

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Mid level clouds are forecast impact MCK as cloud heights fall to around 060-070. Some sporadic gusts of 20-25 knots are possible for each terminal as the nocturnal inversion sets in over the first hour of the period. As the nocturnal inversion sets in then LLWS is forecast to occur at each terminal as well. Winds are forecast to turn more to the west- southwest by the end of the period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.