textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible this evening with large hail likely around an inch and wind gusts up to 75 mph. Flash flooding will be a concern, especially south of Highway 40 where multiple rounds of heavy rain have passed through.

- Severe storms are possible again Sunday, albeit with a lower chance of occurring. The main risk area would be Eastern Colorado while the main threat would be wind gusts up to 70 mph. Flash flooding could be a concern depending on how much rain falls on Saturday.

- More seasonable temperatures through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 129 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Current observations show showers and weak storms continuing to slowly push east/northeast across most of the area in the wake of the main batch that has pushed towards Central Nebraska. The shower and storm activity should lower by 3-4am CT as the outflows become weaker and the air becomes more stable. This should leave the area with plenty of cloud cover through the night, keeping temperatures in the 60s. There may be some patches of fog, but the thick cloud cover should keep it from becoming widespread or dense.

Today, there is not forecast to be much change in the pattern. The upper ridge is forecast to try and shift back west, but is unlikely to amplify. This should keep high temperatures in the 80s and low 90s like the last few days. While higher surface pressure does try to encroach around the region, the likely scenario is that the broad surface low stays roughly in place, helping to keep winds light around 5 to 10 mph. We may have some showers try and develop through the day with the air now being fairly saturated, but they should be fairly short lived and non-severe if they do develop through the early afternoon.

This evening, we have yet another rinse and repeat event with an upper shortwave moving through the southwest flow, sparking storms in the west and pushing them east. Meanwhile, storms may develop south of the area and push north along either outflows or the surface low convergence zone. Today does have some different quirks though as the risk for more impactful severe weather is higher, but the chance for storms is lower. For the western round, this round is still the most likely round to push into the area. If it makes it, 0- 6km shear may be higher around 35-45 kts and allow for stronger storms. This would give us an increased chance for large hail (maybe up to two inches in diameter) and winds would still be a threat with gusts up to 75 mph. The potential inhibitor is that there might be a cap in place, especially if we have lingering showers or good cloud cover during the day. In this case, storms would likely fizzle out in Eastern Colorado and be much weaker as they entered the area. Otherwise, the severe threat would carry into Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska and storms could last through most of the evening. For the southern round the environment would likely be similar to the past few evenings, mainly supporting severe wind gusts close to 70 mph. The issue with this round is that it may start way further south, making it less likely to reach or impact the area.

For now, the forecast is that both rounds should make it into the area during the evening hours. However, the are more app to stay west of Highway 27 (western round) and south of Highway 40 (southern round). This would limit the threat to these areas for both severe and flooding. This could be a fairly big problem in terms of flooding for Greeley, Wichita, Logan, and Wallace counties if the storms do make it since these counties have had two evenings with 1- 3" of rain. If the chances for storms were higher instead of around 40-50%, may have issued a flood watch for these counties. Regardless, keep an eye out for updates as we see what can materialize and survive. If both batches make it, outflows and clusters could bring hazards to the rest of the area, though likely not as strong as when storms first form. Adding to the ifs, there could also be a third batch that moves in from the Nebraska Panhandles region, again if it doesn't run into stable air like the western round.

Sunday, the surface low is forecast to push further south and allow higher pressure and slightly cooler air into the area. This is forecast to keep temperatures capped more in the 80s, with maybe some 70s if cloud cover holds long enough or if the high moves in far enough south. Even with the high pressure moving in, the pressure gradient is forecast to remain fairly broad and keep winds around 5-15 mph, just maybe a bit more from the east.

Sunday evening brings another chance for storms, though the chances is a bit lower compared to recent days. While we may have another wave moving through the upper flow, the ridge is forecast to try and amplify over the Rocky Mountains, lowering how strong the wave would be. If the wave is weak and we are under high pressure at the surface, we will likely be lacking the forcing needed for good storm coverage. However, storms should still fire up along the Front Range and push east. If they are not inhibited to the point where they fall apart, the area is forecast to have increasing moisture availability which may give the storms enough juice to continue into the area. Likely the storm chances and severe threat would be confined to Eastern Colorado during the evening hours. The overnight hours would then see slowly clearing skies. With temperatures forecast to be near dewpoint and weak easterly/southeasterly winds, fog would be a concern if the cloud cover does not hold. Lows are forecast to be in the 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Monday, our region is forecast to be in a mostly zonal upper-level flow with a deepening trough developing off the west coast. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s with lows in the 50s to 60s. The southeast county warning area (CWA) could see some showers and thunderstorms Monday. Low confidence in severe weather occurring as instability is overall weak and Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) max out around 20%. Depending on the coverage of precipitation over the weekend, localized flooding may be a concern with any storms that form.

Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be unseasonably warm. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s to 90s for the CWA. We are forecast to remain in a mostly zonal flow until the trough off the west coast moves through our region and disrupts our upper-level flow. There are chances for scattered evening showers and thunderstorms due to embedded shortwave passages. PoPs are around 20% each evening. Wednesday evening looks to be our best chance for precipitation with PoPs maxing out around 40%.

Models are uncertain on the track and evolution of the deepening trough off the west coast, but it is likely to begin moving east towards our region by Thursday. If the trough moves through sooner, it would likely take us out of a zonal pattern into a more northwest flow increasing our precipitation chances. It could also shift more north and put us back into a ridge pattern, which could shift us into a ridge pattern and decrease our precipitation chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 601 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

IFR to LIFR ceilings are forecast this morning along with some minor reduction in visibility due to fog for GLD. MCK is a bit questionable still. Light winds are forecast for the duration of this TAF period. Watching the potential for showers and storms again this evening and overnight for each terminal, but overall coverage still remains in question so will maintain a PROB30.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.