textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning again issued for the entire Tri-State Area today due to low relative humidity and breezy conditions.

- Northerly wind gusts at or above 60 mph are forecast in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage early Sunday morning. Winds may continue to be strong through the day Sunday, with the potential for blowing dust and a small potential for blowing snow.

- Next week, expect dry conditions and a day-to-day warming trend culminating in near-record to record high temperatures for the month of March by the end of the work-week (Thu-Fri).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 142 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

West-northwest synoptic flow continues across the forecast area currently. At the surface a low pressure system is developing across the Tri-State border area which is leading to light winds where the low is. A shortwave is seen within the synoptic flow where mid and upper level cloud cover is forecast to begin developing across the area as early as 09Z and is forecast to continue through the day. With such a large dry layer at the surface not anticipating any precipitation despite the increase in 700-500mb RH. The cloud cover still does bring some concern as to how warm we are able to get across the area today so have left high temperatures towards the lower end of the forecast envelope but is still forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s across the entire CWA. The warm temperatures continue to have humidity values in the upper single digits to mid teens across the entire forecast area. If the cloud cover does not have an impact on temperatures then warmer temperatures and lower humidity values could result. A surface trough is still forecast to move into the area this morning into the afternoon which will tighten the pressure gradient and increase the southwesterly winds. Breezy winds gusting 30-35 mph are again forecast with the strongest across eastern Colorado. Further east winds may be a bit more marginal as the pressure gradient may not be as tight but still think that 20-30 mph winds are likely given the 850mb jet in place. With all of this said the Red Flag Warning for the day continues to look solid.

Should any fires start, there will be a significant wind shift to the north overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. Guidance has been coming in a little quicker with the front potentially as early as 06Z. If this trend does continue then the start time of the High Wind products may need to be moved up. Have increasing concern that the initial front may produce the strongest winds out of the entire event due to the surge in cold air advection. Current mixing heights forecast has mixing heights around 3000-4000 feet AGL overnight which could support the potential for wind gusts around 70 mph. I also have increasing concern for blowing dust with the front even perhaps a haboob given the mixing heights and how dry the soil is. NASASPORT suggests 0-10cm soil moisture less than 5% roughly along a Haigler to Joes line and on south. This was enough for me to target along the front with widespread dust mention in the forecast.

The potential saving variable to dust is rain and snow potential. Current forecast has the rain/snow potential behind the front currently and this based on cross sectional analysis on the 03Z RAP which has the better Omega and deeper saturation behind the leading edge of the front. If this is incorrect and the rain/snow can occur with the leading edge of the front then the dust threat would get cut down as a wetness should help keep the top soil moist enough to keep dust at bay. The downside is if snow were to occur then blowing snow as it is falling is still on the table which would also reduce visibility. There is a scenario as well that we could get the dust initially and then the snow which would cause a reduction in visibility with two different weather types. The snow squall parameter is still there on the NAM as well but the surface CAPE is a bit spottier than what I was seeing 24 hours ago. Also as I mentioned lapse rates are not quite there on the unstable aspects that concerns me for snow squalls. The most likely scenario in the blowing snow scenarios is that brief instances of visibility falling below 1 mile. The favored area for this is along and west of Highway 27.

On top of everything else with this cold front, there is concern that wildfire smoke from the fires in western Nebraska make a return to the area. Have added in smoke into the forecast since the fires as of typing this discussion still remain un-contained along the potential for additional flare ups during the day and with the frontal passage as well. Confidence in visibility falling to 4SM or less in smoke is around 40% at this time.

Sunday, consistent cold air advection will continue to help mix down strong to damaging wind gusts for the area as they eventually wane through the afternoon hours. Will continue to maintain the blowing dust wording through the day as well due to the dry conditions and the strong winds. Mixing heights actually do support the potential for significant visibility reductions through the day; again the caveat will be if any precipitation occurs to help settle the dust.

As for temperatures have trended a little cooler due to the consistent cold air advection and most guidance suggesting 850mb temperatures around -6 to -9 C through the day. This combined with the wind will keep wind chill values in the single digits to the teens throughout the day. Overnight low temperatures at least in the lower teens are forecast but could be lower if winds end sooner and become light and if cloud cover can clear out as dew points are forecast in the low single digits.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF remain in good agreement w/regard to the evolution of the upper level pattern next week. Guidance continues to indicate that a pronounced blocking high developing over the southwest CONUS early next week will slowly migrate east across the 4-Corners and Rockies mid-late week and Central/Southern Plains (next weekend). An atypical late-winter/ early-spring pattern, to say the least. Expect dry conditions and a day-to-day warming trend culminating in near-record high temperatures (for the month of March) by the end of the work- week. At present, guidance suggests that relatively light winds will prevail throughout the week. From a fire wx standpoint, light winds would be a fortunate outcome (best-case scenario).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 443 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions are currently forecast for the majority of this TAF period. Winds are forecast to eventually become southwesterly across all of the area with breezy winds gusting 20-30 knots. Focus is on a strong cold front overnight shifting winds to the north with strong to damaging wind gusts. Blowing dust may accompany the front but confidence in direct impacts to either terminal isn't high enough to include in the TAF at this time for flight categorical impacts. Rain and snow is also possible towards the end of the period which with the windy conditions would lower visibility as well. Can't rule out some smoke reducing visibilities towards the end of the period for MCK from fires in western Nebraska. Again confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Another Red Flag Warning today as this stretch of warm, dry and breezy conditions continues. The strongest winds for the day are forecast to be along mainly along and west of Highway 27 which is the most likely area for wind gusts up to 40 mph. Further to the east winds are a bit more marginal due to where a surface trough stalls out at. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are forecast across this area. Have some concern that humidity will fall lower than what is currently forecast current temperature forecast is on the lower end of guidance due to cloud cover concerns. If warmer temperatures can develop then a large area of single digit humidity values can be expected and may fall as low as 5% across eastern Colorado. This combined with the warm temperatures and the winds does support extreme GFDI forecast across eastern Colorado.

Tonight a potent cold front is forecast to move through the area with a surge of wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Should a fire be ongoing this will create a dangerous situation not only due to the wind shift but also with the surge of stronger winds. These winds are forecast to continue through the day Sunday as well with potentially a longer lived period of sustained winds of 35-45 mph across the area. The cooler temperatures in wake of the cold front helps keep GFDI values in the Very High category precluding the need currently for an extension to the current Red Flag Warning or a separate one for Sunday; there could be some wetting rain/snow with the front as well which further decreases the need for another Red Flag Warning for Sunday.

Should a fire still be ongoing on Sunday be aware that high temperatures are forecast to be near or even below freezing for the day which would pose problems for any response to a fire with the potential for hoses to freeze.

Fire weather concerns may continue through the next week as well with a strong signal for well above normal temperatures especially by the end of the week. Regional ERC forecasts from NIFC show ERC's returning into the 90th percentile. At this time there is no strong signal for a windy day but with deep mixing most likely due to the warmer temperatures daily wind gusts at least in the 20-25 mph range may be possible.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for COZ090>092. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for NEZ079>081.