textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions will roughly be the same through Monday. Highs in the 80s/90s, lows in the 50s/60s, and winds around 10-20 mph for most of the area.

- Cooler temperatures and a few chances for rain are forecast Tuesday and through the rest of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Today-Monday: Persistence forecast. Southwest flow aloft, between an upstream trough along the Pacific Coast (and embedded upper low over the Pacific Northwest) and a pronounced downstream ridge over the Lower MS River Valley and TX Gulf Coast.. and modest S to SW low-level flow on the eastern periphery of a broad, diurnally waxing/waning lee cyclone.. will continue into Monday. Expect little change in sensible weather conditions, i.e. mostly clear skies, well above average highs in the mid-upper 80's to lower 90's and a ~10-20 mph S to SW breeze. For reference, average highs in mid-October range from the upper 60's in eastern Colorado to the lower 70's in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska.

Fire Weather Today: No appreciable fire weather concerns. Expect light (10-20 mph) SW to WSW winds and minimum relative humidity readings ranging from 20-30%, lowest in Yuma/Kit Carson counties in Colorado. Occasional gusts up to 25-30 mph are possible this afternoon, mainly east and south of Goodland, where relative humidity readings will be highest (25-30%).

Fire Weather Monday: Expect conditions similar to today but slightly drier, with minimum relative humidity readings around 15-20% in eastern CO and 20-25% elsewhere. WSW winds at 10-20 mph with gusts up to ~25 mph during the morning will weaken to 5-15 mph during the afternoon.

Tue-Tue night: Challenging temperature and precipitation forecast. Guidance suggests that the upper level low currently located over the Pacific Northwest will dig SSE into Nevada late Mon night, stall in vicinity of the NV-UT border on Tue, then slowly drift E-ENE toward the 4-Corners Tue night. A tightening height gradient between the eastward advancing upper low and the pronounced ridge over the Gulf Coast and Lower MS River Valley will lead to the development of a strong southwesterly upper level jet in the lee of the Rockies.

Modest (1015-1020 mb) surface high pressure assoc/w confluent flow aloft over the Dakotas will extend southward into the Central Plains on Tue, the leading edge of which will manifest as a NE- ENE wind shift and effective cold frontal passage. While the timing, location and southern extent of the front varies from model-to-model, the general consensus is that the front will be located near or south of I-70 during the afternoon. Strengthening SW flow aloft will facilitate the development of a broad cyclone in the lee of the central-soutern Rockies. Guidance suggests that the broad, west-east elongated cyclone will develop near or south of I-70 in eastern CO and western- central KS. Exactly where will depend on the location of the effective front (i.e. the baroclinic zone).

Expect highs ranging from the upper 60's to mid 70's (north) to lower-mid 80's (south). Precipitation chances will highly depend upon the location/orientation of the effective front and developing lee cyclone. At present, virtually all guidance indicates that the lee cyclone will be located over western KS and that rich low-level moisture and substantive forcing (strong low-level convergence, frontogenesis) will be confined to the eastern periphery of the cyclone, over central and eastern KS. With this in mind, dry conditions are expected to persist for most, if not all, of the Goodland CWA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 243 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

On Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level pattern is forecast to remain southwesterly and mover over the area from the Four Corners region. A shortwave is forecast to move over the area overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Guidance favors the shortwave to pass through before midnight Thursday morning. With this passage and mid- to low-level moisture being transported from the southwest, chances for widespread showers Wednesday and throughout Thursday are medium to high (50-75%) once the shortwave passes. There is higher confidence that showers will happen on Wednesday night.

On Friday and Saturday, it becomes a little less clear as the overall pattern shifts from southwesterly to northwesterly flow. As of now, the upper-level trough pattern is forecast to merge with the secondary trough system to the north of the area and slides east. With that being said, there is medium confidence (45%) that this will lead to a dry cold front to pass through the area from the northwest Friday. Temperatures are expected to be in the 50s and slightly build back up into the 60s on Saturday with both days having scattered clouds. There are hints that guidance is favoring a slower trough progression, keeping it within the area. This may cause slightly more warmer temperatures for each day being roughly 10 degrees more.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. A low level jet is expected to develop this evening, creating southwesterly wind shear up to 50 kts at both airports, and lasting until near sunrise. Winds are currently out of the south at about 10-15 kts for KMCK, and 15-20 kts for KGLD. These winds will gradually shift out of the southwest over the first half of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.