textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of systems move through the region late this week and may bring precipitation. Moderate confidence on timing, but low confidence on accumulations at this time.

- Signal for strong winds and increasing fire weather potential Sunday through mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Zonal flow continues over the central plains over the top of a ridge centered over Mexico. Will begin to transition to a southwest flow Thursday night ahead of an upper low moving into Baja California. At the surface, high pressure will move east today with an increasing pressure gradient and southerly winds in the forecast area. May see those winds gusting up to 30 mph at times this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 50s and low temperatures Wednesday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s. There will be a wind shift to the north Wednesday night with a weak frontal passage. On Thursday, winds veer from north to east through the day, but despite the frontal passage temperatures will be slightly warmer, with highs in the lower 60s. Thursday night will see increasing clouds and perhaps a stray shower or two by the overnight hours associated with any weak wave embedded in the southwest flow aloft and some help at jet level from a right entrance region. Confidence is low in measurable precipitation and most locations likely to stay dry through Thursday night. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 123 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

The weekend remains forecast to have an upper trough from the west push east into the Plains/South while also bringing a low pressure systems south of the area. Guidance continues to suggest that the system should go far enough south that the area see very little precipitation. The average is for the area to see 0-0.20" of rain with this system with the the higher amounts the further south you area. There is the possibility that some snow may be able to mix in with the surface low forecast to move near the area Friday night and into Saturday morning. Compared to earlier forecasts the chances for accumulating snow are now very low around 5%.

All of this being said, there is still about 30% chance that the upper trough/low and the accompanying surface low pull north and provide the area with greater precipitation accumulations. In this case, accumulations could easily exceed half an inch for those south of I-70.

As for temperatures, the upper trough/low is forecast to be cut-off in most scenarios, which should prevent the area from seeing a surge of colder air. With this, highs are forecast to remain in the 50s and 60s with lows generally in the 20s and 30s. The warmer high temperatures are more likely if the area sees little rain or cloud cover. Winds are forecast to be fairly typical with the surface low either too far south of too broad for a strong pressure gradient to develop over the area. Speeds should generally be around 10-20 mph.

Going into the end of the weekend and start of next week, upper level ridging is forecast to build in behind the trough. This is forecast to allow Sunday and Monday to warm up and be dry with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Late Monday and beyond gets a little trickier as another trough is forecast to deepen in the Western United States and push east. The issue is that there is plenty of variance in how broad it gets and its timing. The thing that does look certain though is that if we are near the center of the low, we can expect a windy day. The current forecast already has gusts around 45-60 mph for parts of the area Tuesday, which could be higher if the low is even closer than currently forecast. Conversely, a broader or further north trough path would make it more of a breezy day. Still, increased fire danger to start the week is fairly likely given how dry and warm it will be, regardless of how strong the winds actually are. There is also the possibility of a one-two punch with another system mid- week. Ensemble currently favor a broad and slow secondary trough over the west which may give us a temporary reprieve. Otherwise, another low pressure system would move over and give us another windy day with increased fire danger.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 340 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Breezy south winds will develop this afternoon with gusts of 20-25kts at times through sunset.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.