textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to record high temperatures today. - Cold front passes early Thursday with the potential for strong northerly winds, critical fire weather and a low chance of blowing dust.

- A few showers may develop Thursday night.

- Low potential for active weather early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1241 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Current observations have a large upper high over the western half of the United States with broad low pressure along much of the High Plains. This pattern and setup isn't forecast to change much today short of the low pressure spreading across more of the Plains and the upper high beginning to deamplify and shift south. The upper high is also forecast to continue to shift east and help the area increase in temperature. The forecast remains on track for record high temperatures in the low to maybe mid 90s. Winds across the area are forecast to pick up a bit this morning as the surface low expands and creates a slight gradient. Speeds around 10-15 mph with gusts generally around 25 mph, but up to 40 mph are forecast through noon. As the low finishes broadening out, the pressure gradient and height gradient over the area should weaken and allow for light winds this afternoon. With the stronger winds in the morning, but the dry conditions in the afternoon, have canceled the Fire Weather Watch for Southwest Nebraska. Still may want to use extra caution with fires this morning while the winds are strong.

This evening and into tonight, there could be a few high based showers/sprinkles in Eastern Colorado with some mid level moisture and an 850-700mb trough forecast to be just upstream of the area. While unlikely to reach the ground or impact the area, there is about a 10% chance that one of the sprinkles may be organized enough to produce a strong downdraft. If so, guidance suggests speeds around 60 mph. Though as mentioned, the confidence that the conditions needed for this to occur is very low. Otherwise, the upper high is forecast to weaken ahead of the upper trough with the surface low beginning to become more concentrated over the Plains. With the center of the low over the area though, light winds will likely continue with temperatures cooling into the 50s.

Tomorrow, the surface low is forecast to push through the area to the south during the morning hours. Guidance is in fairly good agreement on the center of the low being south of the area by noon, but not so much on when the bulk of the colder air will move into the area. For those north of I-70, temperatures are forecast to cap in the 60s and 70s as the colder air spills in. Meanwhile, for now, those south of I-70 are generally forecast to reach the 80s and maybe even the 90s. This could pose a problem as winds are forecast to increase on the backside of the low with speeds around 20-30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. If temperatures do truly get that warm, then RH may drop into the mid to low teens and allow for critical fire weather conditions. No watch or warning has been issued at this time as the early passage should help keep us just cool enough. But we will need to watch for any slowing of the low passage. Probably just a good day to not burn anyways though with the breezier winds. For now, the forecast wind magnitude is likely too low for widespread blowing dust impacts. Still, be alert for changing conditions as open fields may be able to produce small instance of very low visibility. Thursday evening and overnight, winds are forecast to slowly lower as the system continued to push to the southeast. With winds lightening and cold air pushing in from the north, most of the area should have temperatures lower to around freezing. There could also be a few showers as mid-level moisture is forecast to be pushed in with the colder air and may be able to precipitate out. It wouldn't be unreasonable for some snow to mix in if this does occur. Even so, accumulations of both rain and snow would be very light with the dry air near the surface limiting how much would actually reach the ground.

Friday, the Plains are forecast to be under the cooler air mass with northwest flow aloft. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the 50s, with some counties along the Colorado border potentially below 50 if some mid-level moisture can remain and provide cloud cover. Winds are forecast to generally be around 10-15 mph with the stronger speeds later in the day as the high begins to shift east.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, a surface high is forecast to be in place across the area with light winds around 10 mph forecast to occur. The air mass will be in wake of Thursday's cold front will be cooler and a lot more March like with highs in the 50s across the area. Dry air will again be in place as northeasterly 850mb winds will filter in dry air allowing humidity values to fall into the teens but with the lack of wind fire weather is currently not a concern.

During the night and into the day Saturday a surface trough is forecast to move through as winds shift to the southwest and warming temperatures occur for at least western portions of the area. The majority of GEFS ensemble members favors a bit more eastern progressive warm front which may lead to a large area of critical fire weather concerns as the 850mb wind field is forecast to be 25- 35 knots. The 700mb wind field currently appears to be a little weaker which suggests to me that a stronger sustained winds is most likely. High temperatures for the day are currently in the upper 60s to mid 80s but could be another 5-10 degrees warmer if the warm front is a bit more progressive.

Sunday, warm temperatures are forecast to continue as the surface trough continues to push to the east. Winds for the day look to be a little in question due to differences in the wind fields as the GFS promotes a bit more of a westerly downsloping flow versus the ECMWF which is a bit more northwesterly flow oriented. Some continued fire weather threat may continue as well for Sunday as humidity values drop currently into the low teens for the area due to the hot temperatures. Near record high temperatures are again in jeopardy. There is a small potential for some virga/sprinkles/light showers as a 500mb vorticity maxima moves off of the Rockies along with a departing jet putting the area into the right entrance region. There is some weak moisture advection and some hints of a couple hundred J/KG of MUCAPE which may promote a dry lighting threat but currently have low confidence in this at this time. There is some hints at a potentially more active pattern developing but have concerns of some dry slotting across the region but will be something that will need to be watched for precipitation potential.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both sites with mostly clear skies. Low level wind shear is forecast for the first few hours of the period as winds around 200ft are forecast to increase to 30-35 kts. KMCK may have these strong winds linger through 15Z. Otherwise, winds at the surface are forecast to be around or less than 10 kts. Winds are currently from the south, but will shift more to out of the west during the morning and then back to out of the south after sunset.

CLIMATE

Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Record high temperatures (for the date) are possible on Wednesday March 25.

================================================== Record Highs for Wed March 25 Current Forecast ================================================== Burlington.........83 in 1998 91 Goodland...........85 in 1907 92 Hill City..........88 in 1956 94 McCook.............88 in 1910 92

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.