textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures will persist.

- Severe storms are again possible Thursday afternoon. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary threat. A large to very large hail threat may materialize if initial storms can remain discrete for a prolonged amount of time.

- Multiple hours of fire weather may be possible Friday across eastern Colorado.

- A few afternoon and evening storms possible on Independence Day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued 100 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Widely scattered thunderstorms will persist through about 09z before dissipating as the low level jet weakens. Updrafts will be of the pulse variety and may briefly reach low end wind or hail severe criteria. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

The set up for today will be very similar to yesterday. Southwest flow aloft continues with another embedded weak wave moving through in the afternoon. CAMs show convective initiation occurring 20-23z in the general vicinity of the Colorado and Kansas border where a diffuse dry line will be located, as well as further west in Colorado. Northeast storm motions will take them into the remainder of the area through about 06z. The environment will be moderately unstable in Kansas and Nebraska with up to 3000 j/kg of SBCAPE and weakly unstable west of the dry line. Deep layer shear will be 20-30 kts, slightly lower compared to yesterday. Updrafts should be mostly pulse, occasionally reaching low-end severe criteria for hail or wind, though isolated stronger updrafts could see hail up to half dollar size or 70 mph gusts. On the hydro side, precipitable water values remain high, RFS shows 1-1.50" as far west as the Colorado border, but storm motions of 20-30 kts appear too high for a flash flood threat.

On Friday the upper flow becomes more zonal around a ridge centered over New Mexico. Shortwave rotating around it moves through Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle in the afternoon, which is where convection is forecast. Additional storms are possible in southwest to west central Kansas along a stalled out boundary. RFS suggests that Nebraska storms will be maintained through the overnight by the low level jet and possibly drift into southwest Nebraska late. As for fire weather, relative humidity will fall into the teens in Colorado where fuels have sufficiently dried, but current model forecasts show little in the way of wind.

On Saturday the upper flow turns more northwest with the ridge amplifying just west of the Rockies. Appears to be another shortwave that slides through during the afternoon and evening. CAMs show convection initiating along the Front Range and Cheyenne Ridge in the afternoon with the approach of the upper forcing, then moving into the Colorado/Kansas border area by around 00z, continuing southeast but weakening through the early evening hours. Instability is forecast to be rather weak, less than 1000 j/kg, though deep layer shear is over 50 kts and could compensate. Those parameters along with favorable DCAPE suggest wind will be the primary severe threat, with perhaps an isolated instance or two of hail.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The upper pattern has a shortwave trough moving through the area Saturday and exiting the area beginning Sunday. Then a ridge begins to move in and begins to slow down over the majority of the the Great Plains. There are some signs of there being some embedded shortwaves that will move through the area throughout the week.

Starting with July 4th, Saturday looks to have high temperatures in the low to high 90s. With the shortwave trough overhead there is what looks to be an associated surface low and a cold front that will move in from the north and head south during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the Fire Weather concerns for prior days, the Relative Humidity (RH) values on Saturday do look to higher in the 20-50%. The gusts the be in the 25-35 kt range. There is a small concern for storms given we have the cold front moving through as our lifting mechanism. Both the NBM and LREF have at least 1500 J/kg for SFC-CAPE. Guidance is also suggesting that there would be around 30-50 kts of SFC-500mb shear. Looking at NCAR AI Convective Hazards Forecast multiple members are showing signs of potential of these storms being severe. However, there is some uncertainty with the exactly location of this surface low and the timing of the cold front.

Sunday though Wednesday does look to be fairly similar with the ridge still staying off to the north and a few embedded shortwaves moving through the area. High temperatures look to remain in the high 80s to high 90s. RH values look to remain above 20% for the majority of the CWA. The winds look to mainly stay to the south/southeast of the majority of the period. Looking at SFC-CAPE each day has around 1500 J/kg. The SFC-500mb shear is around 20-40 kts. One thing to note for the potential of severe weather is 5-15% for there to be convective hazards.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1114 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours before dissipating 06-09z. There is a low probability (less than 20%) that one of these storms will impact either KGLD or KMCK with brief reductions in visibility due to rain and gust winds. Tomorrow, scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop with about a 30% probability of impacting either terminal with similar impacts. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR is expected to prevail.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.