textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Significantly cooler weather expected today and Wednesday with an increasing chance of precipitation Wednesday and Thursday.

- Threat for first frost of the season increasing Friday and Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 224 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Current mid-level water vapor imagery and surface analysis show an upper-level low west of the Rocky Mountains and a cold front extending from southwest Kansas to southeast Nebraska. Clouds have been slow to move out from the morning/early afternoon, which has kept temperatures cooler for most of the county warning area (CWA). High temperatures for Tuesday are expected to be in the 60s to low 70s, with our more southern counties towards the higher end.

The upper-level low is forecast to move east throughout the day, bringing chances for showers overnight into Wednesday for the Tri- State area. Precipitation chances continue through Thursday evening until the upper-level low moves out of the area. Light, widespread showers are expected for this event due to a shallow moist layer and general lack of instability in the environment, which both favor a more stratiform rain setup. Storm total precipitation is expected to range from 0.30 inches to 0.75 inches with areas north of Interstate 70 on the higher end. Areas north of a line extending from Yuma, Colorado to Hill City, Kansas have NBM Probabilities of receiving more than 1 inch of rain around 40-50%.

Along with precipitation chances for Thursday, we also have the potential for strong winds due to a jet streak setting up over the Tri-State area. Winds will start to pick up early Thursday morning. Mostly northerly winds with gusts around 30 mph are expected throughout the area. Counties along and west of the Colorado Kansas border could see gusts around 45 mph. Winds will start to calm down around midnight, but breezy conditions with gusts around 20 mph are possible through Friday morning. Areas that receive little to no precipitation could see localized blowing dust accompanying the stronger winds.

Thick cloud cover beginning Wednesday morning will keep temperatures cool across the area. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday are forecast in the 50s. Clouds are forecast to clear Thursday overnight into Friday setting the stage for our first potential frost/freeze event of the fall. Current NBM temperature probabilities have around a 40% chance of temperatures below 32 F for areas northwest of a line from Burlington, Colorado to Trenton, Nebraska.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Guidance initially places the Tri-State area in zonal flow Friday as we position between a ridge to the west over the Rockies and a trough to the east over the Great Lakes. The ridge really starts to take form Saturday into Sunday. Southwest upper-level flow should accompany this setup with strong high pressure at the surface. The upper pattern is forecasted to weaken a bit Monday as a new system swings in from the west. This briefly ushers in westerly flow back to the County Warning Area (CWA) with weak low pressure at the surface. Surface analysis currently shows no cold fronts or other frontal boundaries moving through the area at this time. A warming trend is likely to influence the coverage area Friday through next Monday as high pressure and southwesterly flow dominate.

It will likely be a dry period for us as any precipitation would be limited to shortwave passages. Thus, probability of precipitation (PoPs) are less than 5% the entire long-term forecast period due to lack of sufficient moisture. As mentioned above, warmer temperatures are likely heading into next weekend. Friday's highs in the upper 50s should warm up to the mid 60/low 70s Saturday. Sunday/Monday's highs are fixing to reach the mid/upper 70's. It will be seasonably pleasant with dew points in the 20s and 30s, moistening up to the 40s by next Monday.

Critical fire weather is not expected to be a huge concern heading into the weekend but will absolutely need to be monitored as this work week goes on, nonetheless. Relative Humidity (RH) values are expected to bounce around the 20s and 30s for the most part. The days to keep an eye on will be Saturday and Sunday as RH may dip into the teens. Surface winds Saturday will be from the southwest generally around 10-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph. Sunday's winds will sit around 5-15 mph, shifting from the southwest to northeast and potentially gusting up to 20 mph. Other than that, the rest of the forecast period should see a general 5-20 mph range of winds. Fire weather concerns will be mainly focused in our eastern Colorado counties, west of US-385 where stronger wind gusts line up with lower RH.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue to lift throughout the early afternoon. Winds will be mainly out of the northeast with occasional gusts around 20 knots overnight. Low ceilings are expected to impact both terminals again Tuesday night with chances for rain showers towards the end of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.