textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers are possible this afternoon, mainly east and south of Colby, KS. Lower chance and less coverage than previous days.

- A Frost Advisory has been issued for the entire Tri-State area into Saturday morning. Temperatures down to 30 degrees will allow frost to form, which may damage and kill vegetation.

- Drying out with a warming trend over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Today, temperatures will largely warm into the 60s as we sit between competing 500 mb systems. A high to the west is slowly pushing out a low to the northeast as the southern CONUS remains zonal. This final push today could produce enough forcing to fire up some scattered showers and storms early this afternoon. If precipitation forms, it would be along a line from Hill City to Tribune starting around 18- 20Z with any precipitation moving to the southeast. There is only a 20-30% chance precipitation forms, and less than a 2% chance severe weather occurs. Precipitation chances will end by 2Z.

This evening and overnight, an 850 mb high will move in from the northwest. This will lead to light and variable winds overnight and keep the sky pretty clear. This will likely (80%) push temperatures down to around 30 for most of the CWA, once again leading to frost and freezing conditions that may harm vegetation. Due to the high confidence of impactful frost occurring across the area, but low confidence in a hard freeze occurring, a CWA wide Frost Advisory has been issued for early tomorrow morning. There is a 20% chance the 850 mb high is weaker than forecast, allowing winds up to 10 kts to persist through the night. If this occurs, temperatures will remain in the mid 30s.

Tomorrow, we'll reside under the shield of the 500 mb high. This will prevent precipitation and allow us to warm into the 70s, and push RH values into the teens. Thankfully, winds look to remain weak and under 15 kts, preventing any fire weather concerns. Temperatures overnight will also remain warmer, likely only cooling to around 40.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Sunday, a Rex blocking pattern is forecast to develop on the west coast with a ridge near the Canadian border and a low pressure system near California. Expect pleasant conditions for our county warning area (CWA) with sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 70s to 80s. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low to mid teens. Sustained winds will be around 10-15 mph with occasional afternoon gusts up to 25 mph possible. The highest wind gusts do not coincide with the lowest RH's of the day, so fire weather concerns remain limited.

As the Rex block begins to traverse east, west-southwesterly flow develops over the region. We will see fairly consistent weather for the remainder of the forecast period. Expect mild temperatures in the 70s and potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as several shortwaves traverse through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-60% Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Instability is weak for our area, so major impacts are not expected, but if thunderstorms are able to form, we could see some small hail. GEFS Ensemble members differ on when this pattern will move on, but it will likely move on after Tuesday.

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, a cold front is expected to move through the region bring cooler conditions with high temperatures forecast in the 60s with lows in the 30s. We transition to a more zonal pattern for the remainder of the forecast period, so no precipitation is expected Wednesday evening and Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1058 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both KGLD and KMCK. Winds this afternoon will generally be coming from the northwest around 10-20 kts, but occasional gusts up to 25 kts are possible at KGLD. This evening, winds will become light and variable, and there is a 15% chance of fog/freezing fog at KMCK near sunrise which could send visibilities down to near IFR.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029- 041-042. CO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092. NE...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081.