textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- 10-20% chance for a short period of light snow north of Highway 36 (mainly southwest Nebraska) around sunrise Saturday morning. No accumulation/impacts expected.

- NW winds may gust to 40-50 mph for a few hours Saturday afternoon. An isolated instance or two of gusts up to 60 mph can't be ruled out across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne county Kansas.

- 10-20% chance of fog, perhaps freezing fog, Sunday morning.

- Similar weather pattern continues next week with a warming trend Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1141 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Sat-Sat night: WNW to NW flow aloft will persist over the region. Shortwave energy over the northern Rockies at 06 UTC (per SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will progress ESE-SE across the Northern/Central Plains today.. accompanied by a modest surface low that will track ESE-SE from the NE Panhandle (~12Z) to central NE (~18Z this afternoon) and Kansas City (00-06Z this evening). High-res guidance continues to suggest a brief potential for light precip around sunrise (~12-14Z) in southwest Nebraska. The presence of a dry low-level airmass with southern extent (toward the KS-NE border) may preclude measurable precipitation in the Goodland county warning area. While an increasingly prominent warm-nose will be present when precipitation is possible (800 mb temps rising to 2-3C in the ~12-15Z time-frame), forecast soundings suggest that vertical wetbulb profiles will remain at-or-below freezing (supportive of snow). Breezy NW winds will develop early this afternoon.. as the surface low progresses east of the Tri-State area. Winds will weaken after sunset.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 122 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Starting the extended period Sunday morning. Weak omega around 1-3 mb is forecast to be in place along and east of Highway 83 around sunrise with a deep saturated layer in place from 500mb to the surface via 03 RAP13 cross sections as a cold front moves through the area. Further looking at soundings from the same time frame shows this as well with the entire profile below the 0C line which suggests to me snow would be the main p-type especially across Hitchcock and Red Willow counties. This is however very similar to the other morning when freezing fog and freezing drizzle was present across northwest Kansas and led to very slick roadways for the morning hours. I do notice as well around 12-15Z warm air advection in the 850mb layer which further raises my concerns for freezing fog/freezing drizzle to occur as a warm nose may develop. Surface winds are also forecast to be light from the east which is also climatologically favorable for fog or drizzle. 00Z NAM12 is also similar on the location but doesn't show the omega and has a little more drier air in the 750-700mb layer. Due to the shallow nature of the lift and it being just below the dendritic growth zone think the drizzle or fog is the more likely solution but confidence in this is only around 10-20% at this time as I would like to see a little more consistency with guidance. The 00Z HREF is ironically enough only showing around 15% chance of ceilings falling below 1000 feet AGL which for freezing drizzle and obviously fog the lower the ceilings the better for the occurrence. Should this occur any fog or drizzle should be out of the area around 12pm CT. Temperatures for Sunday are currently forecast to be around normal for early December in the upper 30s to mid 40s with the warmest across western portions of the area as downsloping occurs and the cool air mass

Monday, northwesterly flow shifts a little further to the east which shunts any potential disturbances away from the area this looks to continue through midweek as well as we are forecast to see a warming trend with Tuesday looking to the warmest with highs in the 60s. Along with dry conditions. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast as well Tuesday as the 850mb wind field increases. With the warmer temperatures may need to keep an eye out for some elevated fire weather conditions primarily along and north of Highway 36.

Tuesday evening and into early Wednesday morning another clipper system moves across the northern Plains and sends a cold front through the region. GEFS ensemble members are split on the amount of moisture in place ahead of the front which will depend on if precipitation can occur with it. There is also potential for a stronger front Thursday morning associated with a shortwave within the northwesterly flow as the clipper system shunts the northwesterly flow back to the west and we enter the same pattern as we have been in. 00Z GEFS shows a bit more promise on precipitation potential with this than what I've been seeing the previous days but looks like it is consistent with what the 18Z run was showing as well so will be interesting to see if its picking up on something or if these are outlier runs. However on the flip side the 00Z run of the ECMWF-AIFS ensembles has the area dry. Will leave with a dry forecast for now due to the significant differences of guidance but is for sure something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

GLD: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with ceilings confined at or above ~8,000 ft AGL. WSW to SW winds at ~10-15 knots Sat morning will shift to the NW and increase to ~20-25 knots w/gusts to ~35 knots around noon (~18-19Z).. breeziest during the early afternoon. Winds will veer to the NNW and decrease to 15-25 knots by late afternoon.. further veering to the N and decreasing to 10-15 knots around, or shortly before, sunset Sat evening.

MCK: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with ceilings confined at or above ~6,000 ft AGL. W to SW winds at ~7-12 knots (tonight and Sat morning) will increase to 12-17 knots late Sat morning (~17Z).. then shift to the NW and increase to ~15-20 knots w/gusts to ~30 knots during the early afternoon (~19Z). Winds will veer to the NNW and decrease to 10-15 knots around, or shortly before, sunset Sat evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.