textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and near average temperatures expected over the weekend.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

500 mb anticyclone near the Four Corners today will move into the Dakotas tomorrow and then remain nearly stationary over the northern plains into early next week. At the surface, high pressure over Missouri will maintain breezy southeast winds and relatively moist conditions through the period. Given the lack of forcing due to the upper ridge, convection will be very isolated and diurnally driven. CAMs show only a pulse storm or two each afternoon, mainly in Colorado, with very little movement. Most locations will remain dry in this pattern. Temperatures show little change, with highs in the low 90s. No fire weather concerns are anticipated with dew points in the 50s and 60s resulting in afternoon relative humidity minimums of 20-30%.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 335 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Bottom Line: High confidence in dry conditions and above normal temperatures. At present, long range guidance suggests day-to- day highs (and heat indices) peaking in the mid-upper 90's with overnight lows ranging from 60-75F, warmest east of Hwy 83.

A Few Thoughts/Observations: A pronounced upper level ridge over the northern Rockies and Northern Plains will amplify and extend eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early this week. Guidance indicates that shortwave energy progressing ESE- SE from Illinois/Indiana into the TN Valley today and Sunday will (1) become trapped beneath the eastward-expanding ridge and (2) evolve into a cut-off low that slowly retrogrades westward across the Lower MS River Valley and Southern Plains mid-late week. Guidance suggests that this feature will play a pivotal role in the evolution of the central CONUS ridge. The presence of a cut-off low over the Southern Plains would impede southward expansion of the ridge; in other words, anchor the core of the ridge (and worst of the heat) over the Northern Plains. If this feature undergoes a different evolution, e.g. the retrograding upper low is weaker, slower or absent, the Tri-State Area would be more at-risk for dangerous heat.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 451 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and mostly clear skies.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.