textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow.

- Warming back up Thursday through Saturday. - Critical fire weather conditions possible on Thursday. Elevated to critical conditions possible Friday and Saturday.

- Windy and colder Sunday with a chance for rain and snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Shallow air mass has settled into the area with cooler temperatures. A surface low is still located along the front in northeast Colorado which may allow a brief warm up in far western areas this afternoon. The low will move south this evening with a brief period of gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph for areas south of Interstate 70 due to the increasing pressure gradient. Later tonight, a shortwave trough moving through the northern plains will bring low chances for rain and snow as it brushes the area. Precipitation impacts appear to be negligible, might see a hundredth or two from Yuma County into Dundy County, but most of the precipitation will stay to the north tonight and to the east tomorrow morning. A secondary surge of colder air with this system will increase winds once again overnight with another brief period of 30-40 mph gusts. Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s. Wednesday will be cooler and breezy with highs around 50. May see some locally critical fire weather conditions across northern areas as dew points tank and northwesterly winds gust 30-40 mph at times. Only the cooler temperatures will prevent more widespread critical conditions. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 20s.

Northwest flow aloft continues on Thursday, but surface winds shift to westerly as a surface trough moves across the area. The downsloping surface winds will allow temperatures to reach the low to mid 70s. Low dew points continue and with the warmer temperatures relative humidity will fall well into the teens. Wind speeds will also increase with deep mixing with most of the area seeing likely probabilities for gusts higher than 25 mph. Although highest winds will be across northern areas (north of Interstate 70), where gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible closer to a jet streak nosing into Nebraska, even southern areas should see gusts of at least 25 mph. So issued a Fire Weather Watch for the entire area from late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening.

Models show another shallow backdoor front moving in Thursday night with light upslope winds late. Typically see low clouds and perhaps some fog in this situation. Return southerly flow quickly develops Friday afternoon which should allow temperatures to recover and reach the 70s once again for highs, perhaps slightly cooler in eastern areas where temperatures will be slower to recover from earlier frontal passage. Relative humidity will once again drop into the teens in western portions of the area (west of Highway 27), which combined with wind gusts up to 35 mph may result in critical fire weather conditions once again. Lows Friday night will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Will manage one more day of warm and breezy conditions on Saturday before a brief pattern change. Best combination of low humidity and gusty winds will once again be over western areas where critical fire weather conditions will be possible. NBM means show west to southwest winds gusting to 35 mph or higher and relative humidity of less than 15% west of a McCook to Goodland line, with eastern areas more marginal with both parameters. High temperatures will climb well into the 70s if not 80s with the downsloping help.

Shortwave trough will dig into the central plains Saturday night and Sunday, bringing abruptly colder temperatures, windy conditions and a chance for rain and snow. Models have trended stronger and further south today, increasing the precipitation chances. While not a closed upper system, it still has the potential for some light snow accumulations (high end percentiles showing an inch or two possible) as well as strong and gusty northerly winds (higher percentile wind gusts currently in the 40-60 mph range). High temperatures may struggle to reach the 40s on Sunday and lows Sunday night will be in the teens. Since it is still several days out, confidence in the details remains low at this time.

Monday and Tuesday will see a return to a dry northwest flow downstream from a building ridge over the western CONUS. Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal on Monday in the wake of the earlier system, but will warm back to much above normal on Tuesday as the upper ridge nudges east across the Rockies. NBM means show gusty northwest winds on Tuesday afternoon and relative humidity around 20%, raising the possibility of fire weather concerns. However, will need to see how much precipitation falls over weekend, since that may impact fuels.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ252>254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ079>081.