textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Low chances around 10-30% each day for a few isolated storms through much of the work week.

- Limited wind and hail threat with stronger storms through the week, but overall severe risk will be low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1219 AM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Today and tomorrow, the pattern is forecast to be stagnant. In the upper levels, the upper trough is forecast to remain over the Northwestern United States with ridging over the Southeastern United States. A shortwave ridge is forecast to also amplify over the Plains. This should keep the area fairly warm with high temperatures in the 90s for most of the area and 100s along and east of Highway 83. The surface low is forecast to remain in place over the Plains with the center north of the area. This should keep the winds from the south at 5-15 mph both days. There is about a 10% chance for storms each during the late afternoon and evening hours with storms developing along the higher terrain to the west. However, the air is forecast to become drier, lowering instability and support for storms. Lows each night should be in the 60s towards the west, and 70s towards the east.

Friday, the upper ridge is forecast to amplify a bit during the daytime hours. While conditions should still be fairly similar to the prior days, temperatures may be a bit warmer with more of the area climbing into the 100s. Winds should initially start light, but may increase depending on what the upper trough does. There is a split in ensembles on whether it tries to move a bit east, or stay in place. So even though the ridge amplifies a bit, the advancement of the trough would likely deepen the surface low a bit and strengthen the winds to be more around 10-15 mph with gusts around 25 mph.

Storms again are possible late in the afternoon and during the evening hours. The drier air isn't forecast to help, but the forcing may be better across the area. Between the upper trough maybe moving closer and the deepening low creating a better convergence zone, there should be better support for storms. This again is contingent though on the trough advancing to some degree. If so, storms would be possible across the area, but would likely do better in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska where more moisture is forecast to be available. Severe weather may be possible if storms are able to form, but would likely only support wind gusts around 60 mph and maybe hail around an inch with effective shear around 25 kts. As such, there is only about a 5% chance of the area seeing any severe weather. Overnight, a few showers and storms may linger if the jet is strong enough. Otherwise, lows should again drop into the 60s in the west with 70s in the east.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Saturday throughout Tuesday, the upper level ridge starts to weaken over the weekend and plateau over the Central and Northern Plains before sliding to the east at the end of the period. There is some uncertainty within the guidance as the low pressure in the Northwest Pacific coast starts to move east causing some inconsistencies within the models. Although, this will help temperatures continue to be above normal and bring in potential chances for rain later in the period as embedded shortwave troughs become more prevalent. High confidence (70-80%) that temperatures will start in the mid to upper 90s Saturday and drop into the mid 90s Sunday. Confidence drops to low (30%) on Monday as NBM 75th to 25th percentile temperature spread becomes more than 10 degrees over the northern half of the County Warning Area (CWA). This could see potential highs within the low 90s for both Monday and Tuesday due to possible showers.

Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) for showers later in the period has increased overnight due to the low pressure potentially moving east with continuing upper level southwesterly flow and diurnal heating still being the main driving force. There is high confidence (70%) for showers on Saturday as not much change has happened with it still having relatively low chances being around 20% within the majority of the CWA. However, there is low to medium confidence (25-40%) that showers could occur between Sunday night and Tuesday night as there is inconsistency within the upper level pattern and embedded shortwave troughs passing through. Overall, chances for showers to occur will be around 30% in the northwestern half of the CWA and 20% in the southeastern half.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

For both KGLD and KMCK, expect VFR conditions through the TAF Period. Winds are forecast to be from the south and around 6-10 kts. Tomorrow afternoon (9/2), a surface low is forecast to move through the area. There is a 10-15% chance of there being gusts up to 25 kts starting at 19Z at both terminals, due to lower confidence of where the low sets up.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.