textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms this afternoon and evening may produce winds up to 80 MPH, 2 inch hail, blowing dust and dust storms, and a brief tornado or two.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for eastern Colorado this afternoon, thanks to a combination of dry conditions and winds gusting around 35-45 MPH. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect for Wednesday in Colorado.

- Dry during the day Wednesday, but a chance for elevated storms Wednesday night, mainly in Nebraska.

- Dry and cooler on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Strong height falls are indicated today ahead of a trough axis moving into the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a dry line will be surging out of southeast Colorado and across the area this afternoon, with gusty southwest winds and dew points falling into the 30s and 40s. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop first in Colorado through 21z and quickly move northeast into the remainder of the Tri State area. Initial development behind the dry line will be in a weakly unstable, hot and dry environment with very favorable DCAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg. CAMs continue to show wind gusts near these high-based thunderstorms of 65+ kts. Despite recent rainfall, the hot and windy conditions today should be enough to dry the top soil, and combined with the magnitude of the winds blowing dust and dust storms may develop. In addition, as the storms move east across the dry line, moisture and instability will rapidly increase, with up to 5000 j/kg forecast in the extreme northeast part of the area (McCook to Norton and Hill City) and up to 40 kts of deep layer shear. While the window will be short as the dry line continues to move east through 01-02z, storms that reach that environment may become supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and brief tornadoes. Storms should move quickly out of the area by 02z to the east, with any lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms afterwards posing only a limited wind threat.

Tonight, a cold front will move through the area with gusty northwest winds by 12z. The cold front continues south through the morning, ending up in southwest Kansas by Wednesday afternoon. Will see another surge of drier air in Colorado during the afternoon with dew points in the teens and 20s dropping relative humidity to around 10%. Winds somewhat marginal but HRRR does show pockets of 20-30 kt gusts, so issued a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon/early evening in Colorado. Convective initiation will be mostly along the front to the south and not moving this way, though may see a few isolated afternoon showers/virga in northeast Colorado. Wednesday night, the 3-km NAM and RRFS suggest elevated convection will develop in southwest Nebraska with a strengthening low level jet and associated isentropic lift. Those models show a brief window between 07-10z where MUCAPE of up to 3000 j/kg will be present before moving to the east and weakening. So, if an elevated storm develops could see a large hail threat.

On Thursday, will see a shortwave moving through the zonal flow fairly early in the day followed by more of a zonal flow in the afternoon. Little to no instability is forecast with dew points in the 20s and 30s, so will keep it dry. However, with those low dew points afternoon relative humidity minimums will drop well into the teens. Gusty northwest winds Thursday morning diminish Thursday afternoon and may not overlap the lowest humidity for fire weather concerns, though it will be a close call. Temperatures on Thursday cool compared to recent days with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows Thursday night ranging from the upper 40s in Colorado to lower 50s in Kansas and Nebraska.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, broad troughing is forecast to be in place across northern portions of the country. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be in place across eastern portions of Kansas into Western Missouri and an inverted surface trough begins to nudge into the area from the west. This is forecast to increase the pressure gradient leading to another day of breezy wind potential. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are currently forecast, but sustained winds may be the bigger story across eastern Colorado and into far northwest Kansas as a 25 knot jet is forecast to be in place and weakening 700mb flow limiting the stronger wind gust potential. Warm temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are again forecast resulting in lowering humidity into the mid teens across eastern Colorado resulting in fire weather concerns again. The location of the dryline that day will be the deciding factor if we have fire weather concerns as the NAM which typically handles dryline placement keeps the entire CWA in the moist sector. If this is the case then we will again need to monitor for isolated severe weather potential during the evening moving in from the west.

Saturday, synoptic pattern remains the same. The difference is at the surface as a front is forecast to be in place across northern portions of the area currently as depicted by the GFS. The ECMWF has cold air advection throughout the day versus the GFS with the above mentioned slower front. If the GFS verifies severe weather would be a concern with straight line hodographs in place along with 2500 j/kg of MUCAPE and wind shear around 35 knots supporting splitting supercells. Future shift will need to continue to keep an eye on this and see if guidance can agree on a solution.

Sunday and into the early part of the work week does appear to be cooler in the wake of the cold front (whenever that does pass through) with highs currently forecast in the 70s. An active pattern does look to continue to persist with NW flow in place across the area and some qpf signal seen in ensembles. It is still too far out to tell for sure if there is any severe potential or if just non impactful rain would occur.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1118 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Scattered high-based thunderstorms will move across the area between 21-03z this afternoon. These thunderstorms may bring briefly gusty winds and reductions in visibility in blowing dust if they move across a terminal. Otherwise, VFR expected to prevail.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. NE...None.