textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to occasionally moderate rain likely tonight through Thursday morning.

- Windy on Thursday with gusts up to 40 mph likely. Low probabilities of gusts greater than 50 mph in northeast Colorado as well as blowing dust.

- Threat for first frost and freeze of the season increasing for Friday and Saturday mornings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Upper low will move from the Four Corners today to northeast Colorado tonight, before being absorbed into a shortwave trough moving through the northern plains on Thursday. Weak waves embedded in the southwest flow ahead of the low are already resulting in scattered showers in northeast Colorado, with another batch of showers expected this morning in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Scattered light showers will continue through the afternoon before the main band of rain moves out of Colorado and into the area this evening. It will take most of the night for it to work its way through. On Thursday, will transition to scattered wraparound showers, mainly north of Interstate 70, on the backside of the low. The precipitation is expected to end by 00z late Thursday afternoon. Total QPF for the event has not changed much, with HREF and REFS means showing generally 0.50" to 1.00" north of Interstate 70 and 0.25" to 0.50" south. HREF probabilities for greater than 1.00" is around 30-50% and mostly confined to the northeast part of the area, especially near McCook, where ensemble maximum is around 1.10".

Thursday will be breezy to windy, with north-northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph through the day. NBM suggests gusts could be higher in northeast Colorado. Current probabilities of gusts greater than 50 mph are 50-60%, centered over western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties, with 20% probabilities of gusts greater than 60 mph. For this to occur, would need to see clearing skies by the afternoon with deep mixing tapping into stronger winds aloft. Models currently show clouds persisting, but if that were to change there would be a risk for those stronger winds to materialize. Some blowing dust would also be possible. Confidence is not high enough at this time to justify a watch.

There is a chance for frost and a light freeze Friday morning and a light to hard freeze Saturday morning. Skies are expected to clear Thursday night, but as mentioned the winds will stay up most of the night, which may work against temperatures falling too much. Current probabilities for a light freeze Friday morning are at least 50% along and west of a Trenton, Nebraska, to Goodland, Kansas, and Cheyenne Wells, Colorado line, while the probabilities for a hard freeze are around 50% in northern Yuma County and west of Highway 59. Elsewhere, a frost is more likely. On Saturday morning, the probabilities are much higher and a light freeze appears likely in the entire area with about a 40% probability for a hard freeze in Colorado and adjacent counties in Kansas and Nebraska. Confidence is close to justifying a Freeze Watch for Friday morning, though somewhat concerned with the wind. Given this is still a couple of days out, would like to see a few more model runs before issuing.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 256 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Synoptically, we find ourselves in northwest flow aloft on Saturday as a ridge develops over the eastern Rockies/northern Plains. The upper-level pattern will briefly shift westerly then southwesterly flow Sunday as this system propagates eastward across the north- central CONUS. Winds aloft should remain from the southwest until a shortwave passage shifts them to be briefly zonal or west- northwestward on Monday. After this, ensemble guidance suggests more ridging building in Tuesday which insinuates southwest upper-level flow once again. Descending to the surface, high pressure is forecasted Saturday through late Sunday. A weak low, associated with the shortwave, should then move across the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday. No frontal boundaries are anticipated with the overall system over the four-day forecast period, therefore limiting any precipitation chances to shortwave passages.

It is likely to be dry Saturday through Tuesday as current Probability of Precipitation (PoP) guidance has 5% or less for the entire long-term period. High temperatures Saturday should be on the more seasonable side, with general 60s and low 70s expected throughout the CWA. Sunday/Monday should see a bit of a warmup as 70s across the board are anticipated. Said warmup should culminate in upper 70s for Tuesday. Low overnight temperatures are what we will have to watch for this timeframe as well. Many locales have a strong chance to see their first frost/freeze of the season this Saturday with low temperatures projected to bottom out in the low 30s. Guidance currently has a range of 30-33 degrees for the entire CWA. Looking ahead, lows Sunday through Tuesday are expected to sit in the 40s in some locations and upper 30s in others, so freeze potential will be unlikely those mornings.

Fire weather potential will continued to be monitored throughout the week. Currently, there is a low chance of critical fire weather conditions being met in eastern Colorado on Saturday, according to guidance. Relative Humidity (RH) values possibly reaching 14/15% is in the mix on Saturday for areas west of US-385. Simultaneously, southerly surface winds are expected to peak around 20-25 mph, gusting 35-40 mph. For the rest of the forecast period, RH values reaching the upper teens is likely Sunday and Monday for our eastern Colorado counties. Northerly winds, shifting southeast with the shortwave passage, generally 5-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph is expected. Tuesday's RHs and winds are not expected to be of concern for fire weather in eastern Colorado. Elsewhere in the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is likely through the weekend and into next week. General winds of 5-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph is expected.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 513 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Expecting a gradual decline in conditions today as an upper low moves into northeast Colorado this afternoon and across the area tonight. Precipitation will gradually increase in coverage, becoming widespread tonight. In addition, areas of fog will develop tonight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.