textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions will roughly be the same through Monday. Highs in the 80s/90s, lows in the 50s/60s, and winds around 10-20 mph for most of the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Today-Monday night: Mainly a persistence forecast. Southwest flow aloft, between an upstream trough over the Pacific Coast/Intermountain West and a downstream ridge over the Mississippi River Valley, and modest S to SW low-level flow on the eastern periphery of a broad, diurnally waxing/waning lee cyclone will persist over the region throughout the short term period. Expect little change in sensible weather conditions from day to day, with mostly clear skies, well above average highs in the mid-upper 80's to lower 90's and a 15-25 mph S to SW breeze. For reference, average high temperatures in mid- October range from the upper 60's in eastern Colorado to the lower 70's in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska.

Fire Weather: Despite well above average temperatures, poor spatial overlap between the breeziest winds (east of Hwy 25 in Kansas) and lowest humidity (RH ~15-20% in Colorado) during the afternoon hours will greatly mitigate, or altogether preclude, critical fire conditions each day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 231 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

On tuesday, upper-level southwesterly flow continues over the area as we are behind a ridge to the east and in front of a deep trough system to the southwest. This will allow a shortwave trough to move into the area in the afternoon with a possible surface low pressure system to the west. This would lead to afternoon showers north of I-70 and weak thunderstorms in the southeast portions of the forecast area as upslope low level moisture will be fed in from the southeast. However, there is low confidence (30%) that the surface low will form and showers to occur.

Wednesday, the upper-level pattern path remains similar as the upper-level trough moves closer and into the Four Corners region. However, uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper- level trough starts to grow throughout the period. This will lead into morning showers and potential strong and low topped thunderstorms in the afternoon. The main driving factors for thunderstorms are potential CAPE values above 500 J/kg and a strong surface to 3 km wind shear profile. The main potential hazard will be strong winds up to 50 mph. While confidence for showers are medium (50-65%), confidence for severe weather are lower (at 25%).

Thursday, the upper-level pattern will start to change from southwesterly flow to northwesterly as the trough moves through the area. Timing of the trough is still inconsistent and becomes even more variable. Although, a dry cold front is forecast to pass through and push any remaining showers to the northeast. If the trough speeds up, it could pass through the early morning hours and have drier conditions. If the trough slows down, it will then allow more time for precipitation to accumulate and have warmer afternoon temperatures.

Friday, as the upper-level troughs moves further northeast, it is likely to merge with a secondary upper-level trough to the north. This could lead to cooler temperatures than expected with calm winds from the north as an additional cold front could pass through.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 447 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be breezy and mainly out of the south- southwest. Wind gusts around 25 knots are possible through around sunrise for both terminals. For KMCK, expect low-level wind shear to begin around 03Z and end around 08Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.