textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and near average to slightly above average temperatures expected over the weekend.

- A warming trend will follow, early next week, with highs forecast to reach the mid 80's by Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Synoptic Overview: Guidance suggests that an amplifying ridge over the Intermountain West and 4-Corners will extend eastward across the Rockies and Central/Southern Plains this weekend, placing the Goodland CWA well south of the mid-latitude westerlies (upper level jet).

Today: A brief period of patchy fog cannot be ruled-out if winds become light/variable early this morning. Present thinking is that.. a tightening gradient (and modest southerly low-level jet) on the eastern periphery of an approaching surface to 850 mb trough will maintain ~10-15 mph south winds (and some degree of mixing), limiting radiational cooling and mitigating fog potential. South winds will weaken from west-to-east as the surface-850 mb trough advances eastward over northwest KS during the day. In northeast CO, on the western fringe of the eastward advancing trough, winds are likely to shift to the N this afternoon. Given that the upstream airmass in WY and the NE Panhandle is 4 to 6C warmer than the airmass currently in place over the Goodland CWA (reference 850 mb temperatures at 07Z this morning on SPC mesoanalysis), northerly low-level flow will, somewhat humorously, lead to low-level warm advection. Expect clear skies with highs ranging from the lower-mid 80's in northeast CO to the mid-upper 70's in southeast portions of the Goodland CWA.

Tonight: Winds will shift to the N or NE across the remainder of the area overnight as modest (~1024 mb) surface high pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies extends southward into the Central Plains. With clear skies, lows will primarily be a function of wind. Guidance suggests that modest surface pressure rises assoc/w the inverted surface ridge extending southward into the region will lead to a period of somewhat breezy (10-20 mph) N to NE winds during the evening in CO-NE and early morning in KS. Expect lows ranging from the mid 40's in CO (where winds are likely to become light/variable or calm well prior to sunrise) to the upper 40's and lower 50's elsewhere, warmest (relatively speaking) in southeast portions of the area, e.g. Hill City, Gove City, Leoti.

Sun-Sun night: A modestly cooler airmass advecting southward into the Goodland CWA during the late morning to early afternoon will foster relatively cooler temperatures compared to today, coolest (~70F) in eastern portions of the area and warmest in CO (on the western fringe of the surface high and eastern periphery of a developing lee trough) where modest southerly return flow will support highs in the mid 70's. Expect overnight lows ranging from the upper 40's (east) to lower 50's (west).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

We are likely to continue a pattern of quiet weather as next weekend approaches. Ensemble guidance places us on the Lee side of an upper- level ridge draped across the Rockies. Flow aloft is expected to remain from the northwest through Tuesday night, briefly becoming meridional Wednesday, then shifting back to the northwest for the rest of the four-day forecast period. Said ridge is anticipated to amplify a bit heading into the weekend as well. There is high confidence of a shortwave moving through the County Warning Area (CWA) Tuesday into Wednesday. Guidance also shows that nothing is expected to come from this other than winds aloft shifting briefly to the north. Recent surface analysis does show a stationary front over the CWA Tuesday, but this should exit the area before Wednesday arrives. Rainfall should not be a factor and warmer temperatures stick around heading into next Saturday.

Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are likely to be less than 5% for the entire Tri-State region through Friday of next week. Dry air aloft plus high pressure is expected to keep any cloud development limited to diurnal cumulus. High temperatures across the region are likely to consistently sit around the low to mid 80s through Friday. Modest dew points in the 40s/50s for the majority of the CWA are expected with some areas east of Kansas Highway 25 seeing up to low 60s.

As we head into fire weather season, Relative Humidity (RH) and surface winds become even more relevant for the region. For this forecast period in particular, RH values are expected to dip during each day Tuesday through Friday as diurnal heating takes place. RH values in the 20s will be likely for the eastern Colorado counties through Friday with a 60-70% chance to fall into the teens. In NW Kansas and SW Nebraska, 40-60% should be commonplace during the day. Surface winds Tuesday are expected to shift from a southerly 5-15 mph to more from the north across the Colorado counties as well as southwest winds elsewhere. Weaker 5-10 mph north winds are likely to shift to more of an east wind on Wednesday. A west to southeast shift is anticipated Thursday and Friday's winds should be from the south/southeast, both at 5-15 mph. Gusting up to 20-25 mph is possible during the forecast period. Despite low humidity in eastern Colorado, winds are not expected to be of significant concern. Thus, fire weather potential there should remain low for the time being.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 512 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites through the period with mostly sunny skies. Winds are forecast to start from the south around 10 kts, with a few gusts near 20 kts. Around 20-22Z, a cold front should move through and shift winds to out of the north at 10kts with a few gusts to 20 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.