textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog the next few mornings, some dense, with Colorado the most likely location for more extensive coverage.

- Windy on Tuesday with south winds gusting 30-50 mph.

- Gradual warming trend through mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

Upper low will move out today with an upper ridge gradually building over the area from the west. Areas of fog, mainly in Colorado, will burn off by later this morning, but low clouds will persist south of the Interstate while areas to the north will see some afternoon sun. The low clouds will creep back north tonight, with fog developing once again overnight and into Monday morning. Favored area for fog will once again be Colorado, with more patchy coverage elsewhere. Upper ridge axis will be over the area on Monday. This will result in modest warming and more afternoon sun. South winds will also gradually increase through the day as the pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and developing low pressure in Colorado begins to tighten. This trend conditions into Tuesday, with breezy to windy south winds gusting 30-50 mph by the afternoon. Some patchy morning fog will be possible as well. No precipitation is expected through the period.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, near normal on Monday with highs in the low to mid 50s, and slightly above normal on Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

A more active weather pattern is in store for the Tri-State area next week. Synoptically, we begin with a ridge centered over the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. This system looks to be positively tilted as a longwave trough moves across the western CONUS and pushes said ridge eastward. Southwest flow aloft should result as our county warning area (CWA) sits right in between the two Rossby waves. On Wednesday, the aforementioned trough deamplifies quite a bit, sending a fairly strong upper-level jet through our region. Guidance is a little more uncertain after this process but most ensembles have weak ridging that forms Thursday before another trough moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest. This next troughing pattern brings with it another closed low aloft late next week that will define conditions for our area, dependent on the track and strength of the system overall. Models are still in disagreement on these two parameters at the moment.

There will be two opportunities for rain during this four-day period. The first of which presents via a surface low that is forecasted to move north of the CWA on Wednesday with trough #1. There should be a cold front with this system but guidance currently has dew points in the 30s after it passes so any precipitation would be pre-frontal. At the moment, there is low confidence of rain with this first system as Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) stand at around 10-20%. Trough #2 should be accompanied by another low- pressure system on Friday that could bring another front through the Tri-State area. Confidence on rainfall is surprisingly high given the uncertain track of the low. PoPs are currently 50-70% throughout the entire CWA but trends regarding evolution of this system will need to be monitored heading into next week.

Another potential result from this upbeat synoptic pattern is boosted surface winds. Two different upper-level jets are forecasted to influence our area, ushering in breezy conditions at the surface. As the first jet passes overhead Tuesday, 20-35 mph southerly winds are likely. Gusts up to 40 mph will be possible too, especially in eastern parts of the CWA. Wednesday's winds should be just as strong, but with the stronger gusts located in the Colorado counties as well as east of US-83. There is a low chance(20%) of gusts up to 45 mph on Wednesday. Winds die down Thursday after the first system departs but 10-20 mph is still in the realm of possibilities. Friday's system should bring more windy conditions with a general 20- 30 anticipated. Gusts in the 45-50 mph will be possible in eastern Colorado.

Temperatures are likely to be average or even slightly above average for this time of the year. Highs in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday should warm into 60s Wednesday. Thursdays high temps sit in the 52- 60 degree range and Friday shows consistent 60s as well. Nighttime lows will start warmer on Wednesday in the 35-42 range but will fall quite a bit after the first cold front Thursday morning with 30s expected across the board. Some locations in the western CWA may drop into the 20s and other locations east of Colby may only fall into the upper 30s. Nevertheless, Friday morning low should bounce back a bit into the upper 30s/low 40s. Fire weather should remain a non-factor for the time being with RHs generally above 40%. Fog may be possible with RHs reaching 100% Wednesday and Friday mornings.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1012 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Low ceilings, patchy fog and isolated light rain showers will impact both KGLD and KMCK through the overnight and early Sunday morning hours. Some gradual improvement from IFR to MVFR will occur early this afternoon as the fog dissipates and ceilings lift. KMCK may see a return to VFR by mid to late afternoon, but the lower ceilings will persist at KGLD through the remainder of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST Sunday for KSZ013-027-041. CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST Sunday for COZ091-092. NE...None.