textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon across the area. Wind gusts up around 70 mph and blowing dust are the primary hazards.

- A few hours of critical fire weather conditions are forecast late this morning and afternoon for counties along the Kansas/Colorado state line. Dry lightning is also a concern for fire starts with any storm that develops.

- Storm chances continue daily the next few days.

- Air temperatures nearing 100-105 are forecast through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1217 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Weak northwesterly flow is persisting as a high over the Four Corners fights with a trough near the Great Lakes. As of 17-18Z, there is a pocket of dry air that has intruded from the southwest, allowing some midday convection to form. So far, the strongest cell in this convection produced 36 kt winds and briefly heavy rainfall. Minimal hazards are expected with this midday convection.

As the day progresses, we are expecting temperatures to warm into the triple digits across the CWA, with some places potentially warming up to 105! Warmer temperatures will are supported by south- southwesterly winds gusting in the 20-30 kts range today. Since there is low confidence in 105+ temperatures, a Heat Advisory has not been issued, but take precautions to stay cool and hydrated.

Starting around 19-21Z, we are expected a dryline to push in from the west and fire off our main round of convection for the day. This round of convection looks to form as a broken line running from around Dundy county to the southwest through the CWA. The line will move to the east-southeast, however splitting cells will vary greatly in direction. Main hazards are still 50-65 MPH winds, however a strong downburst could product winds up to 80 MPH. We are worried about any winds over 50 MPH leading to blowing dust, causing brief brownout conditions and reduced air quality. We cannot rule out a wall of dust. Additionally, 0.5-1.5 inch hail is also possible, but less likely than the winds. Up and down shear velocities, as well as right mover motions are under 20 kts, and PWATS will be above 1 inch, leading to a low-end flash flooding risk from slow moving storms. LCLs are above 2 km, so the tornadic threat is extremely low. Be aware of lightning cause fires, too.

Areas that see the midday convection have a lower chance at seeing storms this afternoon and evening. Convection should largely be out of the area by 5Z. Overnight, lows look to cool into the 60s across the area. Fog does not look likely tonight.

Tomorrow will be hot again with temperatures warming into the low triple digits. A stationary boundary will setup in the far southeastern CWA, likely southeast of a line from Norton, KS to Tribune, KS. Northwest of this boundary, winds will be fairly light favoring a northerly direction. Southeast of the boundary, winds will be stronger and from the southwest. Areas southeast of the boundary will have a slightly better chance at seeing temperatures warm to around 105.

A 500 mb shortwave trough is expected to push into the CWA tomorrow. timing is still a bit of a question, but between 0-6Z is the favored time. This could lead to another round of scattered storms across the CWA, but hazards are more muted than today's. Winds look to be more in the 40-60 MPH range with hail generally under an inch. Blowing dust and lightning started fires will still be a threat for areas that receive less than 2 inches of rain today. Convection may last until the early morning hours Monday. Lows once again look to cool into the 60s, but some areas in the southeastern CWA may remain in the low 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 145 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

***Monday/Tuesday***

A 500-mb high looks to be overhead Monday morning, with the main jet stream flow to the north of the forecast area. GEFS and EC ensembles suggest that this feature will remain in place through Tuesday. Weak surface flow underneath the high would allow for higher temperatures to continue Monday and Tuesday, with highs forecast in the upper 90s to mid 100s both days. Heat index values in the 100s are possible as well, which may indicate the potential for Heat Advisories being needed. However, a couple things that lower confidence for a Heat Advisory include thunderstorms driven by an 850-mb low across the Rockies, and a cold front that may come through the area as early as Tuesday afternoon according to forecast guidance. That being said, thunderstorm potential appears to be relatively scattered, and begin during the evening hours both days. Additionally, northerly winds on Tuesday don't look to be strong enough to produce significant cooling. As such confidence in a Heat Advisory being needed is around 30% each for Monday and Tuesday.

Regarding thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, GFS, EC, and NAMNST soundings show inverted-V profiles up to around 500-mb. So, while sfc-500mb wind shear is favored to remain 30 kts or less, there is potential for microbursts with thunderstorms. Locally high winds around 60-70 mph would be possible under this scenario. Even so, confidence in severe weather occurring is about 5-10% for each Monday and Tuesday. It is also important to note that relative humidities (RH) may drop below 20% both days, particularly across portions of East-Central Colorado, and West-Central Kansas. This is nearing criteria for critical fire weather conditions (15% or less), though wind gusts above 20 mph seem unlikely at this time. Thus, confidence in critical fire weather conditions being in place is less than 5%. However, lightning from thunderstorms may serve as an additional source for fire starts Monday and Tuesday.

***Wednesday-Saturday***

Model guidance begins to diverge by Wednesday. There are indications that a stronger cold front may come through the area associated with a strengthening trough in Southeast Canada. Forecast guidance suggests that this will place highs in the low to mid 90s Wednesday, and 70s and 80s Thursday through the end of the week. Even so, ensemble guidance appears to be in favor of a ridge axis remaining in place over the forecast area, with troughing across the Western United States. This may suggest the potential for the warmer end of these ranges being experienced for highs. Persistence of the 850-mb low across the Rockies along with troughing to the west at 500-mb may allow thunderstorms to develop during this period as well. Confidence in severe weather occurring during this period is relatively low, as sfc-500mb wind shear is primarily less than 30 kts according to GFS and EC model soundings. Additionally, LREF guidance suggests that most days in this range have less than a 50% chance of experiencing vertical wind shear greater than 30 kts. The exception is Thursday, where there is up to a 60% chance for greater than 30 kt shear in Southwest Nebraska. Even so, confidence in severe weather occurring during this period is around 5% or less.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 449 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions look to prevail through the period for KMCK and KGLD. KGLD may see another weak wave of showers move in around 2-4, flight categories are not expected to be impacted. Winds will continue to be erratic and shifty as the storms in area and other various boundaries are nearby the airports. However, winds will weaken overnight and remain fairly weak through the rest of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

00Z guidance suggests that mixing may be strong and deep enough (up to 14,000 feet AGL) today for dew points to fall into the low 40s to even mid 30s as temperatures soar into the 100s. This is forecast to lead to humidity values in the low to mid teens; some localized single digit values may be possible as well. Sustained winds are forecast from mainly the south at 15-20 mph. A lack of a 700mb jet suggests that mainly a high sustained wind is most likely but with the 850 mb jet being the prime source of wind some instances of 25-30 mph wind gusts are possible. Guidance suggests that the lowest humidity values would favor Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Greeley, Wallace and Sherman counties. There is concern for some period of overlap of these conditions. Confidence is around 80-90% in at least one hour of these conditions occurring but falling to around 40-50% for 3 or more hours to warrant a Red Flag Warning due to the potential for storms during the early afternoon. With the dry conditions in place I do have concerns of dry lightning and the potential for fire starts from this due to how dry it has been as of late. CAPE values under 1000 j/kg lead me to believe that most if not all storms would minimal to moderate amounts of lightning but not a high amount like what occurred earlier in the week. PWATS this afternoon are under an inch and with how dry it is have questions of how much rain can fall with any storm. Storm motions may be just slow enough that if a fire were to start then any rainfall could help mitigate the spread. I did contemplate a Red Flag Warning with lightning factor included but due to the slower motions opted to hold off. Be aware of however wind gusts around 70 mph along with dust and poor air quality.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.