textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in Colorado. A strong wind gust or two up to 65 mph possible.

- Strong cold front Saturday brings in prolonged precipitation potential through Monday. Low chance of flooding from this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 122 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Current observations have an amplified upper trough over the Western United States with an amplified upper ridge over the Plains that is slowly shifting east. This continues to put the area in southwest flow aloft, bringing in mid to high level moisture and keeping some cloud cover over the area. At the surface, a deepening low pressure system is positioned roughly around the NE/SD/WY border with a tight pressure gradient over our area. This has allowed winds to increase to around 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph from the south. These conditions should hold through much of the rest of the day with the slow upper level progression and the surface low forecast to remain roughly in place. High temperatures should still reach the upper 70s and low to mid 80s.

Late this afternoon and evening, a few showers and storms are forecast to develop in Eastern Colorado ahead of the upper trough and along a surface convergence zone setup by the low pressure system. The lower and mid levels will likely be too dry for organized storms activity, likely leading to pulse storms developing and fading quickly. That being said, there is still a 5% chance that one of these storms will produce a wind gust up to 65 mph and some blowing dust. The likely time frame would be from 5pm-8pm. The activity should end around 8pm as any available CAPE is used and the surface forcing becomes weaker. The winds should also lower to around 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph as the surface low weakens a bit.

The rest of the overnight should see increasing cloud cover from both the storms and the higher level moisture streaming over. Low level moisture is also forecast to push in late in the night with the continued southerly flow. This should lead to thick cloud cover south of I-70 by sunrise, and maybe even some fog. Temperatures are forecast to range from the 40s in the west, to the 60s in the east.

Saturday is forecast to start a long duration rain event as the upper trough over the west is forecast to turn into more of a cut- off low that moves very little over the next few days. With moisture forecast to continue streaming in and a surface cold front forecast to push into the area early in the morning, showers and maybe a few storms should begin to develop over the area and stream north. With the early start, instability will likely be low and cause most of the precipitation to be showers. This may also lead to isolated/scattered coverage to start the day, before becoming more widespread later in the day as the upper forcing improves. Severe weather will be unlikely through the day with instability likely remaining limited. Otherwise, temperatures will likely cap in the 60s for most of the area with a few 70s ahead of the front and/or if cloud cover briefly breaks. Winds should shift to out of the north as the front passes with speeds around 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph.

Saturday night, the precipitation is forecast to become more isolated and less intense as surface high pressure moves into the area. Even so, rain chances should continue through the night with the upper level forcing from the upstream upper low and plenty of moisture in the area. While the cloud cover and moisture are not forecast to break, cold air is forecast to continue to push in from the north and help lower temperatures towards the 30s and 40s. As long as we don't clear, freezing temperatures are unlikely and precipitation should remain as rain.

Sunday, the upper low is forecast to maybe shift more towards the center of the Four Corners region while the surface high pressure center shifts a little further east. This is forecast to shift any early rain to the eastern portion of the area, but keep coverage limited with forcing forecast to be on the low side. Fog would be possible through much of the day, especially if precipitation stays more isolated and struggles to form. Temperatures are unlikely to warm much with fog and clouds in the area, keeping temperatures in the 40s and 50s for most of the day.

Monday, the upper low/trough is forecast to push further east and begin pushing the moisture out of the area. With this, any lingering rain should come to an end during the day and skies begin to clear from west to east. This should allow temperatures to reach the 60s for those who clear. The rest of the area (likely NW Kansas) should remain in the 50s as long as the cloud cover holds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 224 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Tuesday, we are forecast to be under a weak ridge with a digging trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant with highs forecast in the 60s for the county warning area (CWA).

Our region is on the back end of a weak jet streak, so we have the potential for breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon for the western CWA. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible, although lingering cloud cover from earlier precipitation could prevent stronger winds from mixing down. If skies completely clear, or clear earlier, we could see stronger winds. Models are a bit conflicted with the wind potential. NBM probabilities have around a 50% chance of wind gusts over 35 mph for our eastern Colorado counties. LREF has probabilities of wind gusts over 30 mph around 10%.

Conditions are forecast to remain pleasant Wednesday with partly cloudy skies and high temperatures forecast in the 60s across the area. As the day progresses, we transition to more of a southwest upper-level flow with a developing trough of the west coast.

Thursday and Friday, the forecast remains consistent with high temperatures forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. Our southwesterly upper-level flow will bring afternoon and overnight chances for rain showers as embedded shortwaves are ejected across the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 30-40% with low QPF amounts.

Looking past Friday, we have the potential to return to more of an active weather pattern depending on the track and evolution of the aforementioned trough off the west coast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 540 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

For KGLD, VFR conditions are forecast until around 12-13Z. From 00Z-12Z, expect ceilings to begin to gradually decrease to 6000 ft. Winds are forecast to remain from the south and around 15-20 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts. From 00-05Z, there could be storm or two that develops and creates gusts around 50-55 kts, but the storms will likely remain to the west of the terminal. Throughout the evening, low level wind shear is forecast until 12-13Z. Beginning around 12-13Z, winds should begin to shift until around 16Z, where they will come from the north as a cold front moves through. The winds generally should be around 10-15 kts with the occasional gust up to 30 kts. With this front there should be light showers and lower ceilings, this will likely drop flight categories to MVFR throughout the rest of the TAF period.

For KMCK, VFR conditions are forecast until around 15-16Z. From 00Z-16Z, expect ceilings to gradually decrease through the night to around 3500 ft. Winds are forecast to be from the south and be around 10-15 kts with gusts around 25-30 kts. Low level wind shear is forecast to start the period, lasting until around 11-12Z. Beginning around 12Z, winds are forecast to shift to come from the north by 16-17Z, as the cold front begins to move through. Winds will likely be 15-20 kts with gusts around 25-30 kts. With this front there should be light showers and lower ceilings, this will likely drop flight categories to MVFR throughout the rest of the TAF period.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 219 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

We are expecting a closed low system crossing over the Rockies to provide prolonged forcing to a warm, moist air mass that has been advected in from the Gulf thanks to days of southeasterly flow leading up to the low's approach. WPC has issued Excessive Rainfall Outlooks showing portions of the CWA in a Slight risk. These outlooks aren't unfounded, but confidence for flash flooding, which that outlook focuses on, is less than 15%. Reason being, there does not seem to be a particular time when heavy rain is expected to fall.

Deterministic guidance is suggesting 1-2 inches of rain falling over most of the CWA and a band of up to 3 inches by Tuesday morning. This is likely too high of QPF values, which is supported by ensemble means. Ensemble means suggest most of the CWA will receive 0.5-1.25 inches and a band of up to 2 inches. These values seem more realistic.

This band of higher precipitation amounts will occur where the cold front stalls out Saturday night, creating a stationary boundary as the ridge to the southeast and low to the northwest duke it out. This will be a north-northeast/south-southwest oriented band, with its northern extent likely not crossing I-70. The band may setup anywhere between U.S. 385 and U.S. 83. Wherever the band sets up, there will be a 30% chance of areal and/or river flooding. Low water crossings will likely be the first areas impacted from any flooding that does occur.

It's worth noting, there is a 25% chance that the boundary does not remain very stationary and "bounces" back and forth. If this occurs, a well defined band of higher precipitation would likely not form and the risk of flooding lowers to around 10%.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.