textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through the duration of the work week, hottest on Thu-Fri when highs are forecast to reach the upper 80's to mid 90's.

- A marginal risk for a severe storm or two Thursday afternoon and early evening for the entire area. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to an inch in diameter are possible.

- Additional chances for severe weather Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday. Sunday may also have critical fire weather conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 205 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Early this morning in the wake of a 500 mb ridge, some light vorticity is allowing some light echoes to appear on radar. These are largely expected to remain virga, but light sprinkles may reach the ground in eastern Colorado. Winds will gradually become less gusty as we approach sunrise. These winds will work to keep temperatures in the mid 50s.

Today, a shortwave 500 mb trough will allow an 850 mb low to push into the region from the northwest. This will lead to some WAA before a diffused cold front enters the CWA. The WAA will allow temperatures to warm into the into the low 90s. This will also drive RH values into the teens, with eastern Colorado seeing low teen RH values. Wind gusts look to be in the 20-23 kts range for this dry area. There is 75% confidence that briefly critical fire weather conditions will occur in Yuma county this afternoon, but only 50% confidence Red Flag Criteria is hit. This lack of confidence is preventing us from issuing a Red Flag Warning today. It's also worth noting that the front and storms this afternoon will lead to a lightning-fire threat and chaotic, shifty winds.

This afternoon and evening as the cold front sweeps through the region, there is a chance for isolated to scattered storms to fire around 19-21Z near the Tri-State border then move southeast. Hail and wind look to be the hazards from these storms. The hail threat looks to top out around the 1-1.5 inch range for most of the CWA. If a supercell can form free of any competition from other updrafts, it would likely take a more east-southeasterly course and could produce up to 2 inch hail. Most likely place for this to occur would be in the extreme southeastern CWA, and would be exiting the CWA as it hits its stride.

As far as the wind threat, we are looking at general gusts being in the 40-60 MPH range, but gusts up to 70 MPH are possible. With these winds, dry conditions throughout the day and previous days, we are worried about blowing dust, even a wall of dust, leading to localized brownout conditions. Most likely threat timing will be between 21-1Z. Storms look to exit the CWA around 1-3Z.

Tonight, a fairly zonal 500 mb flow sets up, as the 850 mb low stalls out near the TX/OK Panhandles. The low stalling out will set up a stationary boundary across the CWA. Temperatures west of the boundary will cool into the upper 40s and east of the boundary will remain in the mid 50s.

Friday, we look to get some weak mid-level easterly return flow as the low to our southwest weakens and broadens. Temperatures look to warm to around 90, once again driving RH values into the low teens. Thankfully, the diffusing low near the CWA will prevent any 25 MPH gusts from occurring, so critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

The convection threat for Friday is a bit of an unknown at this point, but it's looking more like and overnight threat. Around 0-6Z, 500 mb vorticity from a shortwave trough will invigorate another weak 850 mb low to the northwest of the CWA. This will allow storms to fire near the Tri-State border and move east. The main threat will be hail with these storms, potentially over 2 inches based on analog data. This is supported by 2,000-3,000 J/kg CAPE, EBWD around 50 kts, and 700-500 mb lapse rates over 8 C/km. A low level inversion looks to be in place, eliminating the tornadic threat. However, besides the inversion, nearly all other sounding parameters support a brief tornado. This is important if the storms occur around sunset, as the nocturnal inversion may not have set up yet.

The threat window for these storms starts around 0Z and lasts until around 12Z, but once storms start they only look to remain in the CWA for about 4-6 hours.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 321 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

***Synopsis***

Broad troughing looks to set up across the Western United States on Saturday and Sunday. The base of the trough in the Desert Southwest is favored to support a surface low pressure to develop across the South-Central High Plains. A warm front looks to be in place across Kansas as a consequence of this flow. This surface low may persist in the area through Sunday afternoon and evening. Model guidance is a little more uncertain going into Monday regarding where the incoming trough will be located. GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean- spread guidance shows southwesterly flow remaining across the area through at least Wednesday morning, as troughing across the west remains. However, the trough may still move in overhead as soon as Monday. Guidance is much more divergent between deterministics and ensembles by Wednesday.

***Saturday***

High temperatures on Saturday look to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. There may be some potential for thunderstorms to occur during the afternoon and evening hours, some of which may be severe. The surface low pressure just to the south of the forecast area is favored to establish a strong southerly flow across Texas and Oklahoma, with approximately southeasterly to easterly winds across the forecast area. This would allow some of the moisture in this return to nudge into the CWA. According to LREF guidance, most of the area has at least a 50% chance to experience dew point temperatures above 40, while areas along and east of Highway 283 have a 50% chance or better to experience dew points above 50. Higher end scenarios would be associated with mid to upper 50 dew point temperatures as far west as the Kansas-27 Corridor. CAPE values (a measure of instability) may have a reasonable maximum of about 2000 J/kg, though most scenarios show 750-1500 J/kg being the most likely range across portions of Norton and Graham Counties in Kansas. Additionally, GFS and EC model soundings show 0-6 km shear in the 40-50 kt range during the afternoon and evening hours, which could support severe thunderstorms along the warm front. Considering the higher surface temperatures to be experienced, storms would most likely be high-based (2 km or higher), limiting the tornado threat. However, stronger storms could be associated with strong winds and potentially large hail. Confidence in severe thunderstorms occurring Saturday are about 15-20%, the limiting factors being how much moisture and instability will be in play for storms to take advantage of.

***Sunday***

Similar high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s are forecast Sunday, with continued severe thunderstorm potential. However, with the northward movement of the surface low into portions of Colorado, westerly to southwesterly flow may be experienced across portions of the area during the afternoon and evening. This could introduce critical fire weather as an additional hazard due to the presence of a dryline. There is a bit of uncertainty regarding where the dryline will set up, as noted by the 75th-25th percentile spread in dew point temperatures across the area in the 10-20 degree range. What can be said is that areas behind the dryline could experience low to mid teen relative humidities (RH), with dew points in the 50s out ahead of the dryline. What makes this scenario about the dryline interesting is that the surface low deepening in Colorado may allow some moisture to wrap around in the form of a hook in northern portions of the region. As such, we may see a scenario where southwestern portions of the CWA (mainly East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas) receive the driest conditions, as opposed to a typical scenario where the dryline is oriented north-to-south.

Regarding critical fire weather conditions, wind gusts across Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas are forecast in the 30-45 mph range. NBM guidance is in agreement with this scenario, suggesting a 50-80% chance across this zone that wind gusts will exceed 30 mph. Considering that RH values in the low to mid- teens are possible, stronger critical fire weather conditions may exist from the mid afternoon to early evening hours Sunday. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed behind the dryline is around 30%, as winds appear likely to exceed criteria by at least 5-10 mph, and RH values have a 50% chance or better to fall below critical fire weather criteria according to LREF guidance.

For severe thunderstorm potential, LREF guidance currently showing a 50-70% chance for dew points in the 50s or higher along and north of the I-70 Corridor, and along and east of the Kansas-27 Corridor. A reasonable maximum for CAPE values looks to be around 2500 J/kg east of the dryline, with a reasonable range in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Further, GFS and EC model soundings are in line with 0-6 km shear around 50-60 kts. Again, large hail and strong wind seem to be the most likely hazards from stronger storms, with tornadoes less likely due to storms being higher-based. Confidence in severe weather out ahead of the dryline is currently around 15%.

***Monday-Wednesday***

Again, model guidance becomes divergent by Monday, though southwesterly flow appears favored based on GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance. This would be caused by troughing that remains to the west of the CWA. Generally, this could favor warmer temperatures, but forecast guidance drops highs on Monday and Tuesday as low as the lower-60s. This may be due to movement of the low from Saturday and Sunday slightly east, allowing cooler air to come into the area, or troughing moving in overhead. Even so, NBM guidance does still have 75th percentile temperatures in the 80s and 90s across portions of Northwest Kansas Monday, with the cooler conditions much more likely on Tuesday. Regardless, forecast guidance suggests that precipitation is possible across the area Monday and Tuesday. Most of this activity would be light precipitation, with NBM 48 hr precipitation guidance suggesting totals around 0.1 inches from activity Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, guidance is even more divergent, though ensemble guidance still shows the indication of troughing across a wide portion of the United States. Deterministics are fairly uncertain on the placement. If troughing can remain to the west, conditions similar to Monday and Tuesday may be experienced. However, troughing overhead may be associated with cool and dry conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. LLWS at 200-400 feet AGL from the south around 40-45 kts will also persist until around 12-13Z. Gusts in the 25-30 kts range will become more infrequent as the night progresses. Tomorrow, a weak cold front will move across the area and may initiate some light storms and cause some shifty winds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.