textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated severe storm remains possible this evening, mainly in Greeley and Wichita counties in Kansas. Quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph are the main hazards.

- Severe weather potential continues Wednesday afternoon and evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 845 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Radar, satellite and observational trends during the past few hours suggest that severe weather potential is decreasing across the majority of the Goodland CWA. At 845 pm MDT (0245 UTC) this evening, convection was largely confined to Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties in southeast CO, where an MCV (mesoscale convective vorticity maximum) emanating from prior deep convection appears to be the focus for ongoing development. If current trends persist, precip chances and severe weather potential in the Goodland CWA will largely be confined to Greeley/Wichita counties, i.e. the E and ENE periphery of the eastward advancing MCV.. where locally heavy rainfall and an isolated severe storm are possible ~03-06Z (9p-12a MDT). While augmented forcing associated with the MCV appears to be strongest along/near Highway 50 (just south of the Goodland CWA) and both the mean wind (300@15KT) and right-mover motion (020@15KT) will tend to steer convection away from the Goodland CWA, left-mover motion from the WSW (~250@15KT) could allow anticyclonic updrafts (if present) to propagate northeastward into portions of Greeley/Wichita counties.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1035 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The morning hours had a cluster of storms that formed and moved generally along and east of Highway 83 along a lingering outflow boundary. Current satellite and radar observations show the boundary is slowly sagging south through the area while additional showers and storms fire up around Logan and Gove counties from outflows from this morning. This should keep some shower and storm activity in the area through the rest of the morning. Severe weather is unlikely with these storms.

This afternoon and evening will largely be dependent on if showers/storms and cloud cover clears. We are forecast to remain in northwest flow aloft while the upper trough slides through the Plains. Along with the outflows in the area and a cold front nearing the area to the north, we should have plenty of forcing available for storms to develop. How severe and how widespread the storms are is what is dependent on our clearing. While moisture availability is high, this early cloud cover is stifling our instability recovery. Should this persist, the storm coverage will likely be lower over NW Kansas and SW Nebraska with mostly sub-severe storms. Eastern Colorado would then be the main focus with storms moving in from the west/northwest. This looks to be the slightly higher chance scenario based on the mid morning observations. Should we clear and warm enough, the severe threat would increase and storms would be more likely to push through NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. The threat magnitudes would also increase. Hail would go from around an inch, to up to 2 inches (maybe larger in a well developed supercell). Wind gusts would probably be similar in the 60-70 mph range, unless a QLCS developed in which case 80 mph is the max. A QLCS orientated roughly north/south or northeast/southwest would also give us a chance for a brief tornado with 0-3km shear vectors forecast to be roughly from the east around 25 kts. There only seems to be a 20% chance that an organized line (QLCS) develops in the west and pushes through. The peak time for severe weather is roughly from 4pm-11pm and 5pm-12am. Storms could continue through the night with outflows in the area and plenty of moisture forecast to be available.

Tomorrow, the upper trough is forecast to push into the Eastern United States while we remain under northwest flow. Higher pressure and colder air are forecast to be in place, helping us stay a bit cooler in the 80s. The pressure gradient is forecast to remain fairly broad and keep winds around 5-10 mph. There may be a few showers through the day, but the chances should be lower compared to today with storms less likely to persist through the early morning.

Showers and storms will be possible again during the afternoon and evening hours. The main storm batch will likely be coming from the west once they develop along the Front Range. There is a 10% chance that convective temperatures is reached and an isolated storm or two form over the area. Storms that form will likely be in an environment that supports large hail around an inch and wind gusts of 50-70 mph. If we can get a supercell to form before storms finish clustering, two inch or large hail may be able to form. The severe threat will largely be confined to the evening hours, though an outflow from the early storms may allow additional storms to form and linger through the night hours.

Thursday is forecast to be similar to Wednesday with highs in the 80s. Winds may be slightly higher as a low develops in the Northern Plains and brings speeds to around 10-15 mph. Storms may develop again during the late afternoon and evening hours if the convective temperatures can be reached, but the forecast for now only has a 30% chance of this occurring. If a storm does form, large hail and wind gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible again.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1010 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, high pressure continues to remain parked across the SW CONUS. Guidance suggests that a shortwave moves off of the northern Rockies. The better forcing is currently forecast to remain to the north which puts precipation potential a little in question but currently counties along and north of Highway 36 currently appears to have the relative higher potential.

Into the weekend a bit more pronounced trough is seen moving into the area from the Intermountain West. This is forecast to shift the high further south across the southern Plains. This may lead to a bit more active pattern across the area. The question will be how far south will the trough sag and if it will allow vorticity maxima to move across the area which currently appears to be the only forcing at this time as the better jet dynamics are currently forecast to remain off to the north. A similar pattern then may continue throughout next week as well but the high elongates some and has some indications of shifting a little east. If this does occur then an increase in monsoonal moisture may develop as this would then become a classic pattern daily showers and storms.

As for temperatures for the period. As long as the high pressure remains nearby the area then temperatures would remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s. If cloud cover were to remain thick enough then temperatures would have to be knocked down around 5-10 degrees but it will be dependent on precipitation coverage through the day.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 440 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period, along with light winds generally below 10 kts. Storms remain possible, though the chances are around 20-40%. KGLD has the best chance between 02-07Z, while KMCK has the best chance between 04-09Z. If a storm made it to the terminals, it may be able to produce 50 kt gusts and maybe some large hail. Otherwise, more storms will be possible again close to 00Z Thursday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.