textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Northerly wind gusts at or above 60 mph are forecast in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage early Sunday morning. Winds may continue to be strong through the day Sunday, with the potential for blowing dust.

- Increasing concern for a period of blowing snow this morning across eastern Colorado and far northwest Kansas.

- Next week, expect dry conditions and a day-to-day warming trend culminating in near-record to record high temperatures for the month of March by the end of the work-week (Thu-Fri).

- Fire Weather concerns over East Central Colorado Tuesday through Saturday due to breezy winds with relative humidity values around 15%.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1128 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Cold front is currently moving across the Nebraska Panhandle as of 05Z. Dust RGB shows some plumes of dust or smoke or both coming off of the fires across western Nebraska so this will need to be watched to see if it continues into the forecast area as the front continues to plow through. Still have concerns of a wall of dust with the front as it moves through the area due to favorable mixing heights and capped 2-2.5km lapse rates moving right along with the leading edge of the front. 0-2km lapse rates are marginally favorable as well around 7-8 c/km but with the NASASPORT 0-10cm soil moisture less than 5% I feel this is enough to overcome the marginal nature of the lapse rates. The only variable that could derail a haboob is how strong the winds are with the initial surge as forecast soundings differ on how strong the winds are with the frontal passage ranging from 45mph-70mph.

Rain and snow eventually becoming all snow is forecast to develop across western portions of the forecast area but primarily across eastern Colorado where omega is a bit stronger. Snow is forecast to develop around 10Z or so and by that time we should be post frontal enough that the snow will become powdery and should be easily blown around due to the strength of the winds. Have added in patchy blowing snow across Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in COlorado for the morning hours. Any accumulation looks to be minimal at best.

Continued cold air advection is forecast to continue through the day Sunday along with strong to damaging winds. Wind gusts up to 70mph remain forecasted as well. Blowing dust continues to remain a concern through out most of the day due to strong winds and dry soil across the area. Mixing heights and lapse rates continue to remain favorable for plumes of dust to develop. Towards the mid to late afternoon mixing heights do increase some the surface visibility restrictions may become a bit less significant but a haze could end up developing impacting air quality. A potential mitigating factor to any blowing dust is if the precipitation can be a bit more widespread than currently anticipated and could provide at least some of a wetness to the top soil. So dust is still not a slam dunk hazard quite yet. Smoke from the wildfires in Nebraska remains forecast as well to move into the area which may also reduce visibility and air quality. Continue to go with the cooler side of guidance for high temperatures as cold fronts are typically more shallow and colder than what guidance suggests. Daytime high temperatures remain forecast around freezing for the entire area.

Winds are forecast to gradually decrease in intensity during the afternoon from west to east as the leading edge of a surface high moves in from the northwest. Much lower dew points in the single digits are forecast and along with the lessening of wind by sunrise especially across the west have dropped overnight lows a bit further as breaks in the clouds are forecast to occur. Wind chills may locally fall to as low as 10 below but wind chills in the single digits below zero are forecast across the entire area. A lingering 500mb vorticity maxima is forecast to move across eastern Colorado during the evening hours which may again lead to some light snow to develop.

Monday we begin warming up again with highs in the low 40s across the east in closer response to the colder air from the cold front to the upper 40s across the west. Dry dew points remain forecast to be in place resulting in humidity values falling into the mid to upper teens but winds are currently forecast to be less than 20 mph reducing any fire weather concerns. Overnight low temperatures into Tuesday morning are forecast to fall into the 20s across the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A long wave ridge over the Great Basin will dominate the weather pattern for the majority of next week. Looking at probabilities for highs during the latter half of the week, the current forecast looks well on track. Would not be surprised if highs end up being warmer than forecast especially on Friday when the ridge is most pronounced with the GFS indicating 591dam high pressure across the SW CONUS.

The main concern for next week will be fire weather. Relative humidity values will fall to around 15% across most if not all of the area for the good majority of the week. Currently Tuesday and Wednesday have the potential to be the breeziest with an increasing 850mb jet embedded within the northwest flow. Wind gusts of 30-35 mph are forecast Tuesday favoring the northwest portion of the area. With anticipated deep mixing in place would not be surprised if each afternoon localized gusts to 25 mph would occur.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 414 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Lingering snow around the GLD terminal is forecast through 15Z but strong to damaging winds are forecast to continue through the day before waning for the afternoon. A slim chance of precipitation is forecast for MCK so will leave out of the TAF for now. Smoke and dust is forecast to linger through the day so there could be some periods of MVFR to even IFR conditions especially if plumes of dust occur and impact a terminal. Winds are forecast to decline through the night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Tonight a potent cold front is forecast to move through the area with a surge of wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Should a fire be ongoing this will create a dangerous situation not only due to the wind shift but also with the surge of stronger winds. These winds are forecast to continue through the day Sunday as well with potentially a longer lived period of sustained winds of 35-45 mph across the area. The cooler temperatures in wake of the cold front helps keep GFDI values in the Very High category precluding the need currently for an extension to the current Red Flag Warning or a separate one for Sunday; there could be some wetting rain/snow with the front as well which further decreases the need for another Red Flag Warning for Sunday.

Should a fire still be ongoing on Sunday be aware that high temperatures are forecast to be near or even below freezing for the day which would pose problems for any response to a fire with the potential for hoses to freeze.

Fire weather concerns may continue through the next week as well with a strong signal for well above normal temperatures especially by the end of the week. Regional ERC forecasts from NIFC show ERC's returning into the 90th percentile. At this time there is no strong signal for a windy day but with deep mixing most likely due to the warmer temperatures daily wind gusts at least in the 20-25 mph range may be possible.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092. NE...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.