textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers ending this morning to early afternoon.

- Windy this afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph in northeast Colorado and 30-50 mph elsewhere. Some patchy blowing dust possible in Colorado.

- Frost and light freeze possible tonight, then a light freeze likely Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Scattered showers will continue to move east overnight and this morning ahead of the upper trough axis. Secondary band to the northwest associated with the sheared out remnants of the upper low may survive as far south as Yuma County before weakening this afternoon with a few light showers. Otherwise, main concern today will be the potential for windy conditions, primarily in northeast Colorado. Mid to late afternoon clearing may be enough to mix down stronger winds to the surface on the backside of the upper trough. NBM probabilities continue at 50-60% in a fairly small area of western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties for gusts of greater than 55 mph after 18z through about 22z. Some patchy blowing dust may also develop with favorable mixing heights, but with the recent rainfall confidence is on the low side given the moist top soils. Gusts outside of northeast Colorado should max out in the 30-50 mph range. Winds take some time to diminish tonight with gusts of 20-40 mph well into Friday morning before a noticeable decline. This may inhibit temperatures from falling despite clearing skies. NBM probabilities for 32 or colder are running around 40-50% near the Kansas and Colorado border to up to 70-90% along Highway 59 and northern Yuma County, where there is also around a 40% chance for a hard freeze of 28 or lower. Elsewhere, a frost is more likely.

Upper ridge will build in from the west on Friday and Saturday resulting in dry conditions. Friday will see light winds by the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds shift around to the southwest and increase late Friday night, gusting 20-30 mph by Saturday morning in Colorado and west of Highway 25. This may once again inhibit temperatures from falling despite the clear skies. Nonetheless, probabilities are running quite high for a light freeze in the entire area, near 100%, with a wide range of probabilities for a hard freeze, favoring low spots in Colorado and along the Republican River. The south to southwest winds continue to increase through the day on Saturday, with gusts of 30-40 mph common by the afternoon, highest in Colorado. Afternoon relative humidity is forecast to drop to 15% or lower from Yuma County southwest into western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties, which combined with the gusty winds will result in near critical to critical fire weather conditions. This may extend into the adjacent counties of Kansas and Nebraska for a few hours as well. High temperatures in those areas will reach the 70s with downslope warming, with 60s expected elsewhere with a more southerly wind component. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Southwest flow aloft via longwave ridge is anticipated on Sunday to kick off this forecast period. Said ridge, centered over the western Great Lakes region, should propagate fairly quickly to the east over the course of the day Monday. Upper-level winds become zonal through Monday. Guidance currently projects a second ridge to develop on Tuesday across the the Plains region, settling the flow pattern back to southwesterly through the middle of next week. This, all ahead of an upper-level low that is expected to move across the SW CONUS through Wednesday. Guidance does outline a brief shortwave early Monday which should move out of the County Warning Area (CWA) by the time the evening comes around. Not much is expected to come from this trough passage other that a wind shift. A weak surface low is likely to form over eastern Colorado Sunday, moving into western Kansas Monday. This feature also should not do much other than pressure changes and wind shifts. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick up a stronger surface low that may set up near the Tri-State area late Wednesday.

Forecast guidance anticipates conditions to be quite dry across the CWA through early Wednesday. 5% or less PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) are favored throughout the region. This may not last though as an upper-level low, mentioned in the above section, paired with low-pressure at the surface could bring the next decent rainfall chances to our region late Wednesday. Guidance is currently not very confident on widespread precipitation, but a general 15-25% PoPs is forecasted at this point in time. Surface analysis/QPF doesn't show much accumulation for our area right now; nonetheless, still worth monitoring as this event draws closer.

Moving on to high/low temperatures for the coverage area, a slight warmup is expected across the board as we rebound from well-below average highs. Temps in the low/mid 70s are likely Sunday and Monday, with a slight uptick to mid/upper 70s Tuesday then upper 70s/low 80s possible next Wednesday. With respect to overnight lows, Sunday morning is likely to be the coldest, with temps expected to approach the mid 30s. Lows will then gradually warm up above the mid 30s, with upper 30s/low 40s expected Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue this warming trend with low/mid 40s and then upper 40s/low 50s expected, respectively.

As for fire weather concerns, the potential for critical fire conditions will be low, but not zero. Relative humidity (RH) values are likely to reach the mid-teens (14-15%) in our eastern Colorado counties on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface winds over these areas should sit around 15-20 mph from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Going forward, RH values are anticipated as low as the upper teens west of US-385 Monday and Tuesday, but winds should be light and variable; thus, the fire weather outlook likely will be milder post-Sunday. For the rest of the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is to be expected with generally 5-15 mph winds. Winds will initially be from the south Monday, shifting to the north and east with the shortwave, then settling back to more of a southerly direction. Gusts are not likely to exceed 25 mph during this forecast period everywhere east of the Colorado/Kansas state line.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 515 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Widely scattered showers will persist through this morning before ending as the upper disturbance moves out. Low ceilings will take until the afternoon to return to VFR. North to northwest winds will gust 30-40 kts by early this afternoon and continue through about sunset, then gradually diminishing tonight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NEZ079.