textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers are possible this afternoon, mainly east and south of Colby, KS. Lower chance and less coverage than previous days.

- A Frost Advisory has been issued for the entire Tri-State area into Saturday morning. Temperatures down to 30 degrees will allow frost to form, which may damage and kill vegetation.

- Drying out with a warming trend over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Today, temperatures will largely warm into the 60s as we sit between competing 500 mb systems. A high to the west is slowly pushing out a low to the northeast as the southern CONUS remains zonal. This final push today could produce enough forcing to fire up some scattered showers and storms early this afternoon. If precipitation forms, it would be along a line from Hill City to Tribune starting around 18- 20Z with any precipitation moving to the southeast. There is only a 20-30% chance precipitation forms, and less than a 2% chance severe weather occurs. Precipitation chances will end by 2Z.

This evening and overnight, an 850 mb high will move in from the northwest. This will lead to light and variable winds overnight and keep the sky pretty clear. This will likely (80%) push temperatures down to around 30 for most of the CWA, once again leading to frost and freezing conditions that may harm vegetation. Due to the high confidence of impactful frost occurring across the area, but low confidence in a hard freeze occurring, a CWA wide Frost Advisory has been issued for early tomorrow morning. There is a 20% chance the 850 mb high is weaker than forecast, allowing winds up to 10 kts to persist through the night. If this occurs, temperatures will remain in the mid 30s.

Tomorrow, we'll reside under the shield of the 500 mb high. This will prevent precipitation and allow us to warm into the 70s, and push RH values into the teens. Thankfully, winds look to remain weak and under 15 kts, preventing any fire weather concerns. Temperatures overnight will also remain warmer, likely only cooling to around 40.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 233 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

***Synopsis***

A split flow pattern looks to be in place across the West Coast Sunday morning, with northwesterly flow overhead at 500-mb. Several shortwaves systems embedded in the northwesterly flow may eject into the Continental United States from Canada Sunday and Monday. The strongest of these shortwaves appears to be on Monday, which is forecast to allow a surface high pressure system from Canada to intrude into the Northern High Plains. This shortwave trough from the north looks to merge with a trough in the Southwestern United States, moving in overhead during the afternoon hours Tuesday. Upper- level troughing may remain overhead through Wednesday afternoon, as another split flow pattern sets up across the Western United States going into Thursday. Deterministic guidance begins to diverge a little bit from here, though ensemble guidance would indicate that this pattern may persist through the end of the forecast period.

***Sunday***

A shortwave trough embedded in the initial northwesterly flow looks to traverse the forecast area Sunday morning and afternoon, with a weak surface low along its leading edge. This would allow southwesterly surface flow across the region during this time period. As such, warm and dry conditions are favored Sunday afternoon, with high temperatures forecast in the mid-70s to mid- 80s, and relative humidity (RH) values in the mid to upper-teens. Despite these dry conditions, critical fire weather is not yet a major concern, as current guidance does not favor wind gusts meeting criteria for the hazard. Ensemble guidance seems to be in agreement with this assessment, as the majority of the CWA has a 1 in 3 chance or less for RH values to meet criteria for critical fire weather according to the LREF. The one exception is across Western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado, where there is as high as a 75% chance for these lower RH values. Even so, NBM guidance suggests a 25% chance or less for wind gusts to exceed critical fire weather criteria in this zone, with the entire forecast area seeing less than a 1 in 3 chance for wind gusts 25 mph or higher. As such, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed on Sunday is low, at 5% or less. While brief northwesterly surface flow may exist behind the weak surface low, temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s overnight Sunday.

***Monday***

As another, even stronger, embedded shortwave trough digs southward into the United States Monday, the leading edge of a surface high pressure system from Canada is favored to enter the United States. This would allow a cold front to traverse the forecast region sometime during the morning and afternoon hours Monday. Forecast highs still look to be in the mid-70s to lower-80s out ahead of the cold front, though precipitation may be possible along this feature. LREF guidance suggests most locations in the CWA have a 75% chance or better for CAPE (instability) to be present, which may indicate the chance for convective showers or thunderstorms. However, the same guidance suggests this instability to be fairly marginal, as the entire forecast region has less than a 50% chance to experience greater and 100 J/kg of CAPE. As such, light precipitation seems to be the most likely outcome, with some locally stronger showers possible. Low temperatures on Monday look to be in the mid-30s to lower-40s, a little cooler than Sunday.

***Tuesday/Wednesday***

Troughing looks to be overhead Tuesday and Wednesday, promoting cooler conditions. High temperatures are forecast in the low to upper-50s, and upper-50s to lower-60s Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Additionally, an approximately stationary surface low is favored across portions of Western Colorado and Eastern Utah. A stationary front extending eastward from this low would create a convergence zone across much of Kansas, allowing precipitation to be possible through Wednesday night. Current ensemble guidance indicates that this activity is unlikely to be convective, as the LREF gives about a 20% chance or less for greater than 50 J/kg of CAPE to be present both Tuesday and Wednesday. Rather, most of this precipitation seems to be driven by frontal convergence. While forecast guidance does suggest small chances for showers and thunderstorms, light rain seems more likely from this setup. Most of this precipitation is expected to fall as rain, though a mix of rain and snow remains possible across portions of Eastern Colorado Tuesday night where temperatures could drop into the lower-30s.

***Thursday/Friday***

Again, models are a little more divergent by Thursday morning, though GEFS and EC ensemble guidance indicates that troughing is favored to be moving off to the east as a split flow redevelops across the Western United States. Conditions look to trend warmer from this pattern, with forecast highs in the low to mid-70s Thursday, and upper-70s to lower-80s Friday. Precipitation looks a lot less likely during this period, though an incoming low could produce light precipitation in some higher end scenarios.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 435 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at KGLD and KMCK. Winds will be from the northeast around 15 kts until about 2Z when winds weaken an become light and variable. Winds will finally pick back up in the afternoon and be from the west- southwest. There is still a 10% chance of fog/freezing fog leading to briefly MVFR visibilities Saturday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029- 041-042. CO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092. NE...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081.