textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly in Colorado, with a low probability of producing marginally severe hail up to quarter sized.

- Patchy to dense fog, potentially freezing fog, and frost is forecast tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Scattered showers and storms again on Wednesday afternoon. Should remain sub-severe like today's storm potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1227 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The active pattern continues over the next couple of days. A 500 mb trough near the Great Lakes coupled with a high over Mexico is leading to an overall zonal flow with embedded waves. This is causing waves of vorticity to frequently move across the region, including in the midday today and this afternoon.

During the midday, scattered showers will be moving northeast across the northern half of the CWA. Light rain is expected from these showers, and an isolated strike of lightning is also possible. This afternoon, as a weak cold front pushes in from the northwest, a few storms look to fire near near the Palmer Divide. These storms look to remain sub-severe due to a lack of CAPE and moderately weak shear. The biggest threat from these storms would be hail if an isolated cell can tap into a localized well of CAPE. These storms look to quickly fall apart near the eastern Colorado border.

Tonight, with the moisture and light winds, fog looks likely. As it stands, patchy to locally dense fog may form across most of the area, but locations along and northeast of a line from Grinnell, KS to Yuma, CO are most likely to see visibility drop to around a quarter of a mile. Additionally, this area could see patchy freezing fog as temperatures drop to around 30 degrees. Slick spots, especially on elevated surfaces, are possible. Frost is forecast to develop across portions of the area early Wednesday morning, which may damage or kill vegetation.

Tomorrow, the fog should be lifting by the mid to late morning as temperatures climb to around 60. Convection tomorrow looks to start in the early afternoon, around the U.S. 36/34 area, west of KS 25. Once again, this convection looks to remain sub-severe and hail would be the main threat. By the late afternoon, stratiform rain looks to dominate and persist through most of the night. Thankfully, temperatures look to stay above freezing Wednesday night. By Thursday morning, most of the CWA should have received at least a trace of precipitation and locations south and west of Goodland, KS potentially receiving a couple tenths.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Thursday, our region is forecast in a southwest upper-level flow downstream of a trough in the western CONUS. This will allow multiple shortwaves to traverse through the region bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 44-90% Thursday, with the southwest portion of the area on the higher end. Rain is expected in the morning and weak instability may support thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thunderstorm potential diminishes after sundown, but overnight showers are likely with PoPs ranging from 20-65% overnight Thursday into Friday. Temperatures are forecast to be unseasonably cool with highs forecast in the mid 50s to low 60s.

We remain in a southwest upper-level flow for Friday, though weaker overall. Embedded shortwaves and weak instability will support showers and afternoon thunderstorms. PoPs peak around 80% across the southwest CWA, tapering towards the northeast as forcing weakens towards that direction. Temperatures remain unseasonably cool with high temperatures forecast in the high 50s to low 60s.

Going into the weekend, we transition to more of a ridge pattern. Expect mostly sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Saturday and 70s to 80s for Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours Sunday. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the the mid teens with gusts around 25 mph possible for the western CWA. RH values will likely change in response to showers and thunderstorms earlier in the week, but still something to monitor for as the week progresses. Sunday, a Rex blocking pattern is forecast to develop on the west coast with a ridge near the Canadian border and a low pressure system near California. Until this blocking pattern starts to move east, we will see fairly consistent weather for the remainder of the forecast period. Expect mild temperatures in the 70s and potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as several shortwaves traverse through the region. GEFS Ensemble members differ on when this pattern will move on, but it will likely move on after Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1028 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

KGLD will break free of the MVFR conditions around 19Z, but some light precipitation may (15% chance) occur before condition improve. This afternoon, there is a 30% chance some thunderstorms move in from Colorado and drop the airport back to MVFR. This chance for precipitation looks to end by 0Z, followed by light and variable winds. There is a 10% chance for fog to impact KGLD tomorrow morning and more storms tomorrow are possible.

KMCK will hold onto the MVFR conditions until closer to 22Z. We are expecting more showers to impact KMCK before then, potentially dropping the airport to IFR. Winds look to largely remain light and variable. There will be a few hours of VFR this evening before fog moves in. Current forecast shows IFR visibilities, but this could easily drop to airport minimums. This could also be freezing fog, leading to rapid icing.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.