textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible again Sunday, albeit with a lower chance of occurring. The main risk area would be Eastern Colorado while the main threat would be wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail. Flash flooding could be a concern depending on how much rain falls on Saturday.

- Low chances for severe storms continue into Monday and Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast to continue through Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 151 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Current observations have most of the main batch of showers and storms exiting the area to the east. However, outflow from the storm cluster in West-Central Nebraska is moving south through the area and generating additional storms. With instability and shear on the weaker side, these should be sub-severe and just give some additional rain in patches. Otherwise, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s are going to help keep temperatures int eh upper 60s and 70s for most of the night. Some fog may also be able to develop close to sunrise. The favored area is generally western parts of the area where skies may clear a bit earlier than the rest of the area.

For the daytime hours, higher pressure and cooler temperatures are forecast to be in place over the area. Daytime highs are forecast to be around 80 for most of the area. With the high pressure expected to be broad, winds are forecast to be below 10 mph for most of the day, mainly from the east/southeast.

During the late afternoon and evening hours, we will see another chance for showers and storms. That being said, chances and overall severity will be lower than prior days with the surface high pressure and slight ridging upstream in the upper flow both trying to inhibit storm progression. This could lead to no storms making it to the area. Otherwise, storms would move in from the west and push east/southeast. The coverage would likely be more isolated or scattered instead of a larger batch. Large hail and wind gusts around 60 mph would be the main concerns, though the less favorable conditions may keep the hail west of the area. In the off chance a stronger storm or cluster does move into the area, there may be a chance for some flooding if it moves over an area that has seen rain the past few days.

Monday, the upper ridge is forecast to amplify a bit to the west while a trough digs into the Northern Plains. With this, the area is forecast to heat up a little bit under the ridge's influence with highs forecast to be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Winds are forecast to shift to out of the south at 10-15 mph.

Storms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours again with slight northwesterly flow aloft and low pressure trying to build into the area. Chances are still forecast to be on the low side with the main upper forcing likely north of the area and some of the upper ridge influencing the area. The issue is that these storms may be severe with plenty of moisture in the area and a chance for higher shear if the surface pressure field doesn't become too broad. Large hail maybe reaching two inches and wind gusts around 60 mph would be the main threats. Should the storms form, they would likely be isolated to scattered in nature.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Starting the extended period Tuesday, high pressure is forecast to continue to slightly extend northward across the area. The further north the high pressure can go then the warmer temperatures will be. Current forecast has temperatures returning to the mid to upper 90s, but if the high pressure can remain a little further south then highs in the upper 80s to low 90s would be common. The position of high will also dictate precipation chances as well. With the current forecast being on the warmer end this does decrease our precipitation chances as guidance indicates that a shortwave will develop on the northern periphery of the high. If storms were to develop, they would turn severe with damaging winds the main threat as they form a cluster and move to the southeast. Currently should storms develop the northern and eastern portions of the area would be favored.

Wednesday, has a similar pattern but is more dictate by the development of a ridge across the western CONUS. Again guidance indicates another shortwave within the flow which could move into the area and possibly entire most if not the entire forecast area. Current guidance indicates that shear is a little better around 35- 40 knots which could support a damaging wind and perhaps even large hail threat if storms don't grow upscale too quickly. Those two days will need to be continued to be monitored.

Thursday, through the end of the forecast period indicates that another strong ridge will develop across the western CONUS as warm temperatures in the low to mid 90s return. The amplitude of the ridge will dictate how warm it gets and if precipitation chances occur as we may continue to reside on the eastern side of said ridge.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Lingering stratus from a weak front this morning remains for GLD; occasional MVFR ceilings look to continue through around 19Z but think they will become less frequent as the front moves further away from the terminal. Winds are forecast to back through the afternoon from the northeast to the southeast before becoming south-southwesterly overnight. Overall light winds around 5-10 knots are forecast to continue. Watching a 5-10% chance of a isolated storm more than likely in the vicinity of GLD this afternoon and around the same chance of a possible cluster of storms this evening. MCK should remain storm free. Am again seeing some hints of stratus for MCK Monday morning but am not currently confident on coverage. SW winds for GLD should mitigates stratus potential.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.