textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A bit cooler to end the work week with highs in the 80s and low 90s.

- Severe weather returns end of this week through early next week. Main days for severe weather look to be Saturday and Sunday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Starting the extended period Saturday, troughing breaks down our ridge as moisture continues to pool into the area. This sets the stage for a return for an active pattern for the area. Showers and storms may already be ongoing during the morning hours dependent on how Friday evolves. During the afternoon a low pressure system is forecast to develop across eastern Colorado which looks to be the one of the focuses for initial shower and storm activity. Coverage is forecast to increase through the late afternoon and evening as a cold front across Nebraska works its way slowly into the area and into a more moist air mass. Initial storms may be severe with 2000- 3500 j/kg of MUCAPE (dependent on the moisture) along with steep lapse rates and 0-6km bulk shear of 30-35 knots. Forecast soundings do indict a cap in place with an approaching shortwave and additional subtle 500mb diffluence storms should be able to initiate in this environment. All hazards may be on the table as well especially with any storm interactions as the low level jet begins to increase. Along the cold front any storms are forecast to grow upscale but with sufficient shear in place embedded supercells may be possible. This is forecast to move to the SSE as an eventually MCS with again all hazards possible as 0-3 and 0-1 SRH increase with the LLJ. PWATS are forecast to be ranging from 1.5 to nearly 2 inches suggesting the potential for torrential rainfall with the cluster of storms. Exact locations are still a bit fuzzy however with any relative higher potential as the NAM is noticeably further south withe shortwave versus the ECMWF and GFS which wold have an impact on coverage. If showers and storms Friday night and into Saturday morning linger too long this may also affect the intensity and coverage of Saturday's system as well, so overall a lot still needs to be worked out.

An unsettled pattern continues as well Sunday and into Monday as additional shortwaves move through the area. Moisture currently looks to be a little less than Saturday but storm chances still remain. Towards the latter portion of the extended period guidance indicates another high pressure system developing over the SW CONUS. Dependent on the amplitude of the high pressure and associated ridge some additional storm potential may associate itself with any subtle disturbance along the eastern periphery of the ridge.

Temperatures for the extended period appear to be a bit dependent on the amount of moisture available and if any cloud cover can linger. Current forecast has highs in the 90s on Saturday before falling back down into the upper 70s to mid 80s into the start of the new work week. Would not be surprised if highs come down a few degrees on Saturday if the higher moisture scenarios pan out and may even be considerably cooler than forecast across the east if morning rain and clouds remain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1047 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period. A secondary front has come through and shifted winds to be a bit more from the northeast with speeds around 15 kts. Winds are forecast to lower somewhat quickly and even become variable at KMCK before sunrise. The daytime hours are forecast to see winds slowly shift to out of the southeast with speeds remaining around 10-15 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.