textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal fire weather conditions today east of a McCook to Hoxie line through 5 PM CST.

- Strong winds expected north of Interstate 70 on Wednesday. Winds will bring increased fire danger threat as well as threat for blowing dust.

- Fire weather conditions possible again Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1204 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

15Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate broad ridge in place across the southwestern CONUS with CWA in generally northwesterly flow aloft as ridge axis remains to the west of area. At the surface...trough axis was located from roughly KSUX to KGUY just to the east of area. Morning sounding at KDDC indicated a very warm and dry airmass in place in southwest KS, but difficult to determine the extent of this dry airmass to the north, which will be crucial to todays fire weather threat. Satellite derived precipitable water suggests this area extends north through out the CWA, but will need to watch surface observations closely as things mix out.

Fire weather, winds and perhaps some dust are the most pressing near term concerns.

This afternoon and tonight...primary concern for today will be magnitude of stronger winds mixing down behind aforementioned surface trough and how much dry air will accompany it. Starting to see some pockets of low humidity and marginal winds develop, but with GFDI remaining below critical levels not convinced threat is high enough to warrant warning at this point. Winds will rapidly become light and variable at sunset, with little if any sensible weather concerns overnight.

For Wednesday...Most pressing concern for the time period will be fire weather and winds and the hazards generally associated with those patterns. RAP is the most aggressive with both the cold frontal passage and the development of strong westerly winds in the warm sector ahead of it. In this worst case scenario, we will see a period of critical fire weather conditions with winds gusting as high as 50 mph near the Tri-State border followed by a strong and sudden wind shift to the north. Three hour pressure rises and timing of front in this case would support a period of strong wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range as well. Both GFS and Canadian are similar to the RAP although more muted on magnitude of winds while NAM remains notably slower posing a much smaller overall risk. While not entirely confidence the worst case scenario, even taking a more average approach yielding a few hours of GFDI hitting significant threat levels. Further complicating all of this, weak axis of surface based instability will bring the potential for scattered showers with potential rumble of thunder ahead and just behind front. With vertical profile remaining very dry and instability limited, think that these showers would pose a strong and erratic wind threat combined with little of any precipitation reaching the ground.

One other concern should a solution like RAP occur is blowing dust. Would expect to see some dust plumes ahead of front, especially in Yuma county throughout the afternoon. When front hits this area with preconditioned/very dry soil in the late afternoon early evening it would be a favorable pattern for a "wall of dust" type event occurring along KS/CO border. Since this is the worst case type of solution, confidence remains low (~15%) that this will occur but does warrant monitoring.

After front passes Wednesday evening expect cooler temperatures to settle over the region. A lingering fire weather threat will persist on Thursday as airmass remains very dry, but winds will be decreasing through the day, lowering overall concerns.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 150 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Northwesterly flow looks to be in place over the forecast region Friday. Surface winds look to be out of the west around sunrise, and become more northwesterly between the mid-morning and early afternoon hours. Warm, dry conditions are favored with this pattern. High temperatures are currently forecasted in the upper-60s to low- 70s, with relative humidities in the low to mid-teens across the CWA. Critical fire weather may be a concern Friday afternoon, as wind gusts across portions of Northeast Colorado look to reach the 25-30 mph range. NBM guidance suggests about a 30-40% chance for wind gusts in this range to spread into East-Central Colorado, Southwest Nebraska, and Northwest Kansas. However, a mixed layer about 1.5 km deep may exist, which could allow stronger winds to mix down toward the surface. In this case, stronger wind gusts may be favored. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed rests around 10-15%, with the highest chance in Northeastern Colorado.

An embedded shortwave trough in the upper-level northwesterly flow may pass the forecast region Saturday morning and afternoon. A surface high pressure is forecast to extend into the United States from Canada as this takes place. A cold front at the leading edge of this high pressure looks to pass through the forecast area sometime Saturday morning, which may allow a cooler period going forward. Forecast highs across the CWA still range from the mid-50s to mid- 60s, with the coolest of these temperatures expected across Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas. However, the NBM 75th-25th percentile difference for max temperature is in the upper-teens to low-20s across the area. This means high temperatures could be 5-10 degrees higher or lower than the current forecast, depending on the timing and strength of the incoming cold front. If temperatures are allowed to trend higher, critical fire weather could once again be a concern for Saturday. Relative humidities are currently forecast in the upper-teens to 20s, but would be lower if higher temperatures are experienced. Coverage and intensity of wind gusts are currently uncertain, though NBM guidance suggests most locations in the forecast region have at least a 20-30% chance of experiencing wind gusts 25mph or greater Saturday afternoon.

A southerly to southeasterly return flow may set up sometime between Sunday morning and Sunday night. High temperatures Sunday in association with this system are currently in the 40s and 50s, but could once again be 10 degrees higher or lower based on the timing of this wind shift, in addition to how the cold front impacts the area Saturday. Light rain and/or snow may also be experienced as this system passes through the forecast area, particularly Sunday evening through Monday morning. Coverage of precipitation is currently in question, but is only forecasted to be a few tenths of an inch at best.

A split flow looks to set up across the Western United States Monday through the end of the period. Northwesterly upper-level flow may be to the north of the CWA during this time, but embedded shortwaves still have the potential to impact the region. There is a bit more model divergence with respect to the timing, intensity, and location of these shortwaves at this point, but continued temperature fluctuations and precipitation may occur with any of these possible systems.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 404 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period, with light surface winds and considerable high clouds. A few high based virga/showers may develop this afternoon and persist into the early evening, but not expected to be impactful.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 545 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Newest 12Z guidance that is coming in is holding a 40-45 knot 850mb jet in place across Hitchcock, Red Willow Decatur and Norton counties a little longer than previously seen. Due to the longer nature in which this jet is forecast to remain in place has led to an increase in forecasted winds as the nocturnal inversion should be fulled mixed out as mixing heights rise to around 2000' AGL. Based on this wind gusts up to 35 mph may be possible from roughly 17-20Z. Did contemplate a small Red Flag Warning for northeastern portions of the area but opted to hold off due to moisture advection around 300K and seen in nearly all surface dew point output as the potential for some virga or sprinkles increases. Most guidance has the moisture moving into the CWA around 20-22Z which would leave a short window for multiple hours of critical fire weather conditions to occur. There is a 45% chance that the moisture is delayed an hour or two which in return would lead to multiple hours of critical conditions but with declining winds through the afternoon. Taken a look at the Vapor Pressure Deficit the average at the Dundy and Red Willow Nebraska Mesonet sites is lower than in the Nebraska Panhandle for example by around 0.15- 0.2Hg and is more consistent with the remainder of the state. As for the Kansas side 10 hour fuel moisture is forecast to be closer to 20% which does cut down of the fire spread risk some as well Due to the lower confidence in 3+ hours of critical conditions occurring ,the decrease in winds and the above mentioned 10 hour fuel moisture and lower Vapor Pressure Deficit mentioned above am opting to hold off on the issuance of a Red Flag Warning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for KSZ001. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for COZ252. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for COZ253. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NEZ079.