textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix and freezing fog is forecast to develop gradually through the day Sunday and into Monday night favoring locations along and east of Highway 83. A 20-30% chance of at least a glaze of ice is forecast through this time frame.

- Most of next week, there are chances for precipitation across the area. Early and late week are currently favored.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1109 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

A backdoor cold front is currently moving into north central Kansas, which appears to be a little quicker that some guidance suggested so have trended the wind forecast to a combo of the HRRR and GFS which both has the quicker front movement. Until then breezy winds from the northwest are forecast to continue for the majority of the area leading to periods of briefly critical fire weather for the area. Winds are forecast to wane with the frontal passage before increasing again during the evening hours with sustained winds around 15 mph. Other than the winds, another mild late February day remains in tact with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to occur leading to an increase in cloud cover. Drizzle and/or freezing drizzle is forecast to occur favoring eastern portions back as far as Highway 83 of the forecast area starting as early as 12pm central time Sunday. RAP and NAM cross sections do show periods of -1 to -2 microbars of lift at the surface which has led to the introduction of the wording for a few hours in the early afternoon. If the moisture advection is a little slower then the threat may be delayed a few hours. Sunday night into Monday morning additional lift in the 700-500mb level is forecast to move off of the Rockies in the form of a shortwave increasing lift in that time frame. This may lead to a period of freezing rain or sleet to occur favoring Norton and Graham counties. The RAP shows a bit deeper of a dry layer and not as much mid level moisture which would suggest more of a freezing fog potential. Currently there is quite bit of discrepancy with the coverage of the fog potential and if it would be dense fog so am opting to leave it out of the forecast for now as the wintry mix looks to be the more impactful threat. Confidence for at least a glaze of ice across eastern portions of the area is 20-30% and 10-20% for accumulating (0.01 inches or more).

Monday, troughing across the western Conus is forecast to return slowly ending any wintry mix potential by late morning into Monday afternoon. Moisture advection is forecast to continue as well as a surface low begins to develop. Light rain may continue across the east. Most of the area looks to remain dry in the dry slot of the developing low. Highs for the day are forecast to be in the low 50s across the east to the upper 60s across the west.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Starting the extended period Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to move through the area. Precipitation is forecast to increase on the back end of the low along the front as the low pressure system moves off to the east. Guidance indicates around 500-1000 j/kg of MUCAPE to be present which may lead to a slim chance for a rumble of thunder. Would be a bit more optimistic on storm potential but with temperatures forecast in the low 50s am a little pessimistic and am opting to continue with just rain potential for now. Will need to keep an eye on a rain to snow transition due to wet bulbing especially if cooler air can remain in place. The CAPE may also lead to some banding potential as well. High temperatures for the day appear to be dependent on the track and location of the surface low. If the low sets up a bit further north then temperatures would be warmer and if the low sets up further south then highs wold be a little lower.

Wednesday, currently appears to be a bit more tranquil weather wise with a surface high in place behind the cold front. High temperatures are again currently forecast to remain mild as a surface trough moves through with warmer downsloping winds. There are some guidance however that suggests the trough not occurring and highs remaining around 10 degrees cooler.

Thursday and into the weekend, the pattern appears to become a bit more active as troughing moves into the region. Guidance suggests a surface low developing as well and a dry line developing towards eastern portions of the CWA. Rain chances and even perhaps some thunderstorms may be possible. Depending on where the dryline sets up some severe threat may be able to form as well. Thursday may also see some critical fire weather threat but will again be dependent on the position of the dry line. Cooler air on the back end of the low may also lead to a rain/snow or a wet snow developing for northwest portions of the area. There continues to be quite a spread in the exact path of the trough and the low so a lot still needs to be worked out so continue to check back through the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 944 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period. A backdoor cold front is forecast to move through during this afternoon into the evening shifting winds to the northeast. Until then forecast soundings suggest that wind gusts of 20-25 knots should occur at or shortly after TAF issuance before losing that potential with the front. Mid to upper level cloud cover is forecast to increase through the night. Some guidance suggests that period of fog/stratus may be possible overnight for GLD but those were tied to a slower front passage so confidence is less than 5% in that.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.