textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms again this evening with a low probability, less than 20%, of wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday night with areas of 1-2" possible in northwest Kansas.

- Above normal temperatures today, cooling to near normal on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning, gradually lifting out to the north. A cold front will traverse the area through the morning and afternoon, ending up generally along or just south of a Hill City to Tribune line in northwest Kansas by mid afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will initiate along the front around that time in a weakly unstable environment, REFS shows SBCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg near the front, and 30 kts of deep layer shear. The parameters suggest a marginally severe storm or two will be possible with wind and hail, but overall the severe threat will be on the low end. Other storms will initiate along the Colorado Front Range in the post frontal upslope regime. They will make their way into the area Tuesday night. Instability remains weak, MUCAPE is less than 1000 j/kg, and deep layer shear decreases slightly to around 25 kts. So the overall severe threat remains low, though cannot completely discount a marginally severe wind gust. 12-hour precipitation amounts from the CAMs through 12z Wednesday show areas of 1-2" as the storms take on a somewhat linear configuration with some training, primarily across northwest Kansas. This may lead to areas of excessive rainfall and possible flooding. Storms move east and out of the area near or shortly after 12z Wednesday morning. Models show weak instability lingering into Wednesday afternoon in northwest Kansas with 30-35 kts of deep layer shear. While the front will be well to the south, may see an isolated storm or two with a disturbance moving through the zonal flow aloft and maybe some jet help as well with a right entrance region over the area. However, severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Temperatures will be above normal today as the front moves through the area. Upper 90s will be possible again from Hill City to Tribune in northwest Kansas, with upper 80s to lower 90s to the north. Temperatures cool to near normal on Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Ensemble guidance continues to be supportive of ridging moving in overhead at 500-mb Thursday morning. This would be producing a surface high pressure across the Midwest. At the same time, there looks to be a surface low to the north across South-Central Canada and portions of the Northern United States. Weak southerly winds would be favored across the forecast area by this pattern. High temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 80s, and possibly lower 90s. Temperatures would be allowed to reach into the mid and upper 90s if southerly flow were stronger, but the current forecast would suggest that the surface high in the Midwest and the surface low to the north will be too far north to have a significant impact on southerly flow. Additionally, there are not any major mid level features that would promote strong winds mixing down to the surface, suggesting that highs may be a bit cooler than in recent weeks. As for precipitation, showers may be lingering across portions of Northwest Kansas and far East-Central Colorado in association with convection from the previous night. Otherwise, precipitation is not expected the rest of the day Thursday.

A surface low is favored to form across the Northern and Central Plains in the right entrance region of a modest 50-70 kt 500-mb jet streak Friday. A cold front looks to be trailing the surface low as a surface high intrudes into the Northern United States. Southerly flow is anticipated out ahead of the surface low, though it is currently uncertain how soon the cold front will pass over the forecast region. LREF standard deviation in wind direction highlights this point, as a broad area from the Dakotas down through the South-Central High Plains shows a spread of 70-90 degrees in wind direction. Additionally, there is some uncertainty in how strong the cold front will be. Forecast highs Friday are currently in the low to mid 90s, though about 10-20% of NBM solutions show a faster, stronger cold front which would prevent highs from reaching the 90s. Dry conditions are also forecast across our Eastern Colorado Counties, where winds are primarily expected out of the west to northwest. LREF guidance shows a 30-50% chance across this area that relative humidity (RH) values drop below 20%. This may implicate fire weather as a concern, especially if stronger winds are experienced with the cold front Friday. NBM guidance across Western Yuma County shows around a 1 in 3 chance that wind gusts will reach 25 mph or higher. Confidence in Red Flag conditions being met (25 mph or greater gusts, and 15% or less RH for 3 hours) is less than 5%, although this will continue to be a point to watch as we approach the weekend.

By Saturday, another trough is favored to be digging into the Western United States, moving eastward toward the forecast region through the weekend. A surface low at the leading edge is forecast to move into the Central Rockies Saturday, allowing southerly winds to return to the forecast area. Even so, highs only have about a 30- 40% chance on Saturday, and a 40-50% chance on Sunday to reach back into the 90s. This could certainly depend on how cool things can drop with Friday's cold front, but the surface winds also have an easterly component as opposed to a westerly component, which would prevent the hotter solution. There is the possibility for some precipitation on Saturday ahead of the low, but NBM guidance suggests that most areas have less than a 20% chance of receiving greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. These chances increase a bit on Sunday into the 25-40% range as the low moves into Eastern Colorado and Wyoming. These higher probabilities are primarily across Southwest Nebraska and Northern Yuma County in Colorado, where a warm front may reside. However, some storms may develop ahead of an incoming cold front as well. Some storms may be allowed to become severe, as LREF guidance shows up to a 75% chance that sfc-500mb shear will be above 30 kts. Even so, the same guidance shows that it is most likely (>80%) that storms will only have a few hundred J/kg of surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) at their disposal. Therefore, the favored solution is that showers and weak thunderstorms would occur, with a storm or two that could become marginally severe.

The cold front from this system is currently forecast to pass through the area sometime Sunday evening or overnight. There are still some timing issues with the system's eastward progression, though temperatures are expected to be a bit more temperate upon passage of this cold front. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday. It is important to note that GEFS and EC ensembles show larger amounts of spread in 500-mb heights ahead of the trough, which would be associated with a faster progression. If this is the case, these conditions could be experienced as early as Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1115 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning. Brief gusty winds of 20-30 kts may accompany any thunderstorm. Surface winds will shift to north and northeast by mid to late morning behind a cold front, gusting up to 20 kts through the afternoon before diminishing. Scattered thunderstorms will move through the area once again Tuesday night.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.