textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog possible tonight and Monday morning.

- Breezy to strong NNW winds may develop in the wake of a cold frontal passage Tuesday morning. Present indications suggest sustained winds ~25-35 mph with gusts in the 40-50 mph range.

- Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving.

- An Arctic cold front will bring much colder temperatures to the region this weekend and early next week.

- Snow possible this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1216 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today, breezy conditions with winds gusting 20-35 mph are currently forecast as the trough approaches. Rain chances will increase through the afternoon as an arc of showers moves southwest to northeast through the area with a developing low. Some isolated rumbles of thunder may be possible across southeastern portions of the area where dew points will be higher leading to some minimal amounts of MUCAPE. Continue to have concerns on if the arc of showers and embedded storms will be more broken to scattered due to drier air continue to be seen in the 850-750mb level and even some subsidence in the low levels. This is what is continuing to temper expectations with pops. The 12Z NAMNEST actually supports this along with the 12Z RRFS versus the HRRR which has a more organized arc of rainfall. Gusty winds may occur with the showers or virga with some sporadic gusts of 35-45 mph. Light rain may then continue to linger through the evening hours and overnight as cyclogenesis occurs but with the current forecast track it may be a bit spotty due to dry slotting. Due to the moist low levels will need to keep an eye on patchy fog potential where rain is not ongoing. At this time do not see a reason to change the fog forecast that was inherited from the prior shift. Some of the fog could be dense due high difference values of surface to 1km mixing ratios. Rain is forecast to continue through the morning hours on Monday as the back end of the low moves through the area. Dew points remaining in the mid to upper 30s should help keep the precipitation all rain but if some cooling can occur then some spotty snowflakes could occur across the higher elevations of Yuma and Kit Carson county due to wet bulbing.

Monday, light showers and/or drizzle may continue through the day before ending west to east starting during the mid to late morning hours as small amount so omega remain in the low levels according to the 15Z RAP13 as high temperatures are forecast to remain in the 50s across the area. Lingering fog may also still continue but similar to the rain potential would end west to east throughout the day as drier air moves in. Have extended the duration of the fog through the mid afternoon for eastern portions of the area due to a deep saturated layer in the low levels according to 15Z RAP13 soundings. High temperatures for the day remain forecast in the low to mid 50s.

Monday night and into Tuesday a cold front is forecast to move through the area leading to an increase in winds. GFS and the ECWMF AIFS are nearly similar on the frontal passage occurring between 09 and 12Z so have trended Max T for the day a little lower as the high temperature for the day may actually end up occurring before sunrise as cold air advection is forecast to continue to stream into the area. Did nudge temperatures down some since the colder air is normally more shallow than what guidance suggests, with this thinking during the daytime hours temperatures may struggle to remain higher than the low 40s. Breezy to gusty winds remain forecast through the due to the proximity of the system over the northern Plains which is what is moving the cold front through the area. Wind gusts of 35-isolated 50 mph are forecast to occur as the 850mb wind field increases due to response of the system.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Starting the extended period mid week, including for the Thanksgiving holiday at this time does look to be more tranquil as well with ridging over the western CONUS resulting in northwesterly flow for the area. If the ridge can amplify more then temperatures may need to be warmed up a few degrees but with the amplitude of the ridge currently near normal to slightly below normal temperatures are currently forecast with the cooler air mass due to the front on Tuesday remaining in place. In fact there are some GEFS members that keeps colder air in place which would end up resulting in cooler than forecasted temperatures for Thanksgiving.

The pattern then begins to turn more active starting as soon as Friday night into Saturday. Guidance has begun trending towards a weak shortwave moving off of the Rockies and into the area interacting with a weak surface low across SW Kansas. These two features may create enough lift to support light rain or snow across portions of the forecast area. The timing of the eastward movement of this low is what will dictate the speed of the colder air filtering into the area this weekend. Guidance has trended more towards a Saturday frontal passage. But with the coldest air towards the start of the new work week. Snowfall does appear to be possible late weekend and into the start of the new work week but will be heavily dependent on the track of troughing ejecting onto the Plains. If the trough can stay further south then that would eliminate any precipitation potential. The potential for low temperatures below 10 degrees has increased since the previous shift now looking to be 40-60% chance and 10-30% chance of below zero temperatures as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1004 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

For KGLD... Ceilings around 200-400ft and visibility between 1/4 and 2SM are forecast through 15Z as low level moisture has moved in over the terminal. There is a chance that conditions may briefly improve as some rain showers are trying to form southwest of the terminal in the wrap around portion of the low. If the showers move over, they could improve visibility to around 4-7SM and lift ceilings to around 500-1000ft. Otherwise, conditions are not forecast to improve until around 15Z as very slow daytime heating begins to dissipate the fog, and then lift and break apart the cloud cover. Conditions are forecast to be VFR around 21-00Z as the low shifts east. From then, the next concern will be increasing winds with a front that could provide low level wind shear. However, this is currently forecast to occur after 06Z Tuesday.

For KMCK... Ceilings are forecast to lower slowly through the first few hours of the period as more low level moisture pulls in from the south and with the showers clear of the terminal. They are forecast to bottom out around 200-400ft by 09Z. As the low ceilings set up, fog is also forecast to form with visibility initially around 3-5SM, but potentially lowering to around 1/2SM closer top 12-15Z. As temperatures slowly warm through the day, the fog should burn off during the morning, and then ceilings lift through the afternoon. Around 00Z, ceilings should lift above 3000ft and allow for VFR conditions. This evening, a front is forecast to move through and increase winds from the northwest. There is a chance that low level wind shear could develop around 200-500ft with speeds around 40-50 kts between 03-06Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.