textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect today for eastern CO, where air temperatures will reach 103-107F.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect today and Monday for all of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska, where air temps and heat indices ~105-110F and overnight lows in the 70's will lead to a high risk of heat related illnesses and place considerable stress on livestock and outdoor pets.

- A few severe storms are possible Monday aft-eve. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary hazard. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage.

- Potential for late aft-eve thunderstorms through mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1053 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Current observations continue to show the upper ridge in place over the Rockies and much of the Plains. At the surface, broad low pressure is set up over the area. With this, winds have become light and the showers and storms that were near the Front Range have been unable to advance far enough east to impact the area. As such, the nighttime hours are expected to see partly cloudy skies with light winds, allowing temperatures to cool to near dewpoint. However, the weak southeasterly flow and lack of mixing have allowed dewpoints to rebound quickly into the upper 50s and 60s. This should then keep low temperatures in the 60s, with 70s forecast for those east of Highway 83 where more moisture is present. Fog looks to be unlikely as long as temperatures don't cool too much.

Sunday continues to be forecast to be one of the hottest day of the year so far. The upper ridge is expected to amplify slightly while the axis moves more over the area. With this and a developing low pressure in the Northern Plains shifting the low level flow to more out of the south/southwest, temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 100s by the afternoon hours. With winds a bit lighter compared to Saturday, dewpoints will likely be a bit higher as well and help heat index values reach the mid to upper 100s. Lower 110s may also be possible east of highway 83 where dewpoints should be highest. With this, the Heat Advisory remains in effect.

There is the possibility of some afternoon/evening showers/storms with the surface low creating some convergence zones in the area, along with an 850-700mb low creating some low-mid level convergence. The issue with any storms is that the low levels will likely be extremely dry given the very warm temperatures. Also, the convergence zones look to setup over the western half of the area, where the overall moisture content is also forecast to be lower. As such, most showers/storms that form would be very quick and may only produce virga. Even if a storm does hold on, it is unlikely to be severe with the overall weak instability and lack of shear. Still, they might produce a few gusts nearing 50mph and some dry lightning which could spark a fire.

Sunday night, any storm activity should end early in the night once the sun goes down. Dewpoints are also forecast to continue to lower with the low level flow forecast to be from the southwest. Even with the slightly lower dewpoints, the southwesterly winds are forecast to keep temperatures up with a downsloping component. This would lead to another night with minimal recovery from the heat as temperatures generally stay in the 70s and 80s.

Monday continues the heat with little change in the upper ridge during the day. The main change is that the surface low is forecast to take more of a shape and shift south into the southern portion of the area by the late afternoon. For the daytime hours, this means plenty of sunshine and high temperatures into the mid to upper 100s again. The exception is in locales near the Tri-State border and Eastern Colorado as a whole as the low pushing through is forecast to limit the warm air advection and even bring in "cooler" air. Likely, temperatures would near 100 again for this area, but this would keep heat index values below the mid 100s. For now, am keeping Eastern Colorado out of the Heat Advisory for Monday. Most of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska however keep the Heat Advisory with heat index values in the mid to upper 100s. Lower 110s are possible again east of Highway 83 if the easterly low level flow can bring in more moisture.

With the surface low deepening during the day, it is forecast to provide a convergence zone in the area. This could spark some early showers and storms that may keep areas a bit cooler than currently forecast, mainly in the western parts of the area. Should storms fire up early in the afternoon, the weak shear and high melting levels suggest that they should mainly be sub- severe with a dry lightning threat. That being said, a few storms may be able to load enough precipitation to produce severe downburst wind gusts. This is also true for any storms that form along the Palmer Divide with the easterly upslope flow. The other potential hazard to watch for is a low end flooding threat. With very slow storm motions around 10 kts and high melting levels leading to melting hail and better precipitation efficiency, a long lived storm or cluster may be able to produce a few inches of rain. Any showers/storms that do form may also continue through the night with the surface low forecast to stall just southeast of the area, keeping moisture advection and forcing in the area. While the precipitation would help cool the area a bit, the lack of drier air would still keep temperatures near dewpoints in the 60s and 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Synoptically, not much has changed; the ridge that has been in place over the Four Corners region is still likely to stay nearly stationary over the next week. By Saturday, guidance is starting to signal that the ridge will begin to de-amplify as a trough moves along the US/Canada border. Throughout the week, there should be a few shortwaves moving through the area.

High temperatures for the week look to "cool" down to the mid to high 90s. Winds look to remain calm to breezy, with minimum relative humidity values staying above 25%.

Moving to precipitation chances for the period:

Tuesday's PoP's are currently forecast to be in the 30-60% range, with the highest percentages in eastern Colorado. Guidance indicates that the surface low just to the south of the CWA will likely remain there throughout the day. With the low stationary, winds should mainly be from the east-northeast, promoting upslope flow for showers/storms. After looking at instability and shear for severe storm potential, there are signs that if storms were develop, they would mainly stay on the marginal side. For the northwestern portion of the CWA, there is a 25-40% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation from the afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday still looks to have higher precipitation chances of the long-term period as a shortwave propagates through during the afternoon and evening. Guidance indicates a boundary moving in from the northwest toward the southeast, though models disagree on its exact location and timing. Currently, both the GFS and Canadian models show the boundary; however, the GFS brings it in late afternoon, whereas the Canadian delays it until early Thursday morning. Other guidance doesn't have the boundary. If it does materialize, severe storm potential would be marginal. PoPs are currently forecast to be 40-65% where once again eastern Colorado having the highest percentages. Eastern Colorado currently has a 2545% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation. Given this is roughly four days out, it will be interesting to see how guidance trends for the location and speed of the boundary.

For the rest of the week and weekend, PoPs steadily decrease. Thursdays chances are around 2030%, and Friday through Sunday stays around 10-20% each day. However, with shortwaves passing through, any favorable lifting mechanism, like a boundary or front, could nudge these precipitation chances up or down as we get closer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions and light/variable winds will rule through the TAF period at both terminals.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004- 013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092. NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.