textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers, possibly a brief storm, may accompany a cold frontal passage late this afternoon and evening. Hazardous weather not expected.

- Cooler temperatures, pervasive cloud cover and periods of rain (heavy, at times) will follow, Monday night through Wednesday.

- Rain may mix with, or transition to, wet snow in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulating wet snow is possible, mainly in eastern CO where air temperatures will hover around 32F.

- Light winds and a clearing trend may lead to sub-freezing temps and frost/freeze conditions Wed night-Thu morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Today: Expect conditions similar to yesterday (Sunday), with highs in the mid 70's to lower 80's and minimum relative humidity readings around 15-20% during the mid-afternoon. Very light (5-10 mph) NW or variable winds will prevail through mid- afternoon. Winds will abruptly shift to the NNE and increase to ~20-25 mph w/gusts to 35 mph during the late afternoon and early evening as a cold front surges southward through the region. Current model guidance suggests that the frontal passage will occur ~3-7 pm MDT, earliest (~3-5 pm MDT) near the CO-KS-NE border and latest (~5-7 pm MDT) south of I-70. An influx of low- level moisture with the front will rapidly send relative humidity readings above 50%. With this in mind, no appreciable fire weather concerns are expected. Marginal high-based instability (~100-500 J/kg MUCAPE) could potentially support high-based showers during the mid-late afternoon. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current (06Z 05/04) and recent runs of the HRRR indicate little or no convective development (other than high-based virga) in the Goodland CWA this afternoon. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current (06Z 05/04) and recent runs of the NAM NEST continue to suggest that weak low- level convergence within a broad lee trough over western KS will assist in scattered shower development (possibly a brief storm) during the early-mid afternoon, ~2-3 pm MDT (20-21Z), though.. this scenario is predicated on morning dewpoints in the 30's persisting into the afternoon.. on a warm day with deep vertical mixing (albeit with weak flow).. prior-to (in advance of) the approaching front, which may be a bit unrealistic given the pattern. For comparison, the HRRR indicates surface dewpoints falling into the teens and 20's prior to the frontal passage this afternoon. Either way, hazardous weather is not expected.

Tonight-Tuesday: Cooler temperatures, pervasive cloud cover and periods of rain will follow, late tonight into Tuesday. Expect Tue morning lows in the mid 30's to lower 40's and relatively little in the way of recovery during the afternoon, with highs ranging from the mid 40's to lower 50's.

Brief Update (Tue Night-Wed): A rate-driven/assisted transition from rain to wet snow may occur in eastern CO and nearby KS border counties late Tue night into Wed morning. Accumulating wet snow is possible, mainly at relatively higher elevations in eastern CO where above-freezing thermal profiles will be shallower (easier to 'melt-out') and surface temperatures more likely to hover around, or just above, the freezing mark. If rain transitions to heavy wet snow (and persists) early Wed morning, reductions in visibility (below 1 mile) and melting snow/slush on roads could lead to locally hazardous travel conditions despite warm ground temperatures and light winds. Further east in KS/NE, low temperatures ranging from 32-36F are expected late Tue night/Wed morning. Widespread cloud cover and rain (heavy, at times) are unfavorable for frost formation.

Brief Update (Wed night): Light winds and a clearing trend may allow temperatures to fall below freezing (into the mid 20's to lower 30's) late Wed night/Thu morning. Frost and/or a hard freeze are possible.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 316 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

***Synopsis***

High amplitude, positively tilted troughing in the upper levels looks to lie just to the west of the forecast area Tuesday morning. At the same time, northerly surface winds will be in place after the passage of a cold front, in addition to a broad convergence zone across Kansas associated with a slow- moving surface low in Colorado. Ensemble guidance favors this pattern to last through Wednesday evening when the troughing moves off to the east and a split flow develops across the West Coast. Consequentially, northwesterly flow is forecast to overspread the area aloft starting Thursday, lasting through the end of the period. Current guidance suggests that this pattern may persist through the end of the forecast period.

***Tuesday/Wednesday***

As troughing moves across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, and northerly surface flow remains, cooler conditions appear favored. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid-40s to mid-50s, and low-40s to low-50s respectively. Additionally, the convergence zone across Kansas looks to produce precipitation across the CWA both days. NBM 48 hour precipitation guidance suggests around a 50- 70% chance for greater than 0.25 inches of precipitation across portions of Eastern Colorado, Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas between Tuesday and Wednesday. This activity does not appear to be convective, as LREF guidance suggests a 75% chance or greater for less than 100 J/kg of CAPE (instability) to be present. Rather, this activity is favored to be driven synoptically by low-level convergence, mid-level warming, and incoming cyclonic motion aloft. As temperatures cool both nights, rain may transition into snow, most particularly in counties along the Eastern Colorado Border where below freezing temperatures may be experienced overnight. Lows are currently forecast in the upper-20s to mid-30s Tuesday, and mid- 20s to lower-30s Wednesday. There is reason to believe that Wednesday's low temperatures may be lower than the current forecast due to cool, wet, and cloudy conditions during the day, and cloud cover clearing overnight. NBM 25th percentile low temperatures across much of Eastern Colorado are in the lower-20s both days. Confidence is increasing that a Freeze Watch will be needed, at around 30-50% both days.

***Thursday-Sunday***

Ensemble guidance indicates that northwesterly flow will persist through the end of the forecast period. Several embedded shortwave systems will have the opportunity to impact the forecast area during this time. Current forecast guidance suggests that warmer conditions are favored to return, with highs in the low to mid-70s across most of the region Thursday, Friday, and Sunday, and upper-70s to lower- 80s Saturday. A couple of shortwave systems on Thursday and Friday may be associated with showers. LREF guidance suggests as high as a 40% chance for greater than 100 J/kg of CAPE across portions of Eastern Colorado both days, whereas NBM suggests around a 20% chance or less for all locations in the CWA for greater than 0.01 inches of rainfall from these showers. A stronger shortwave may produce slightly stronger, more widespread showers on Saturday, with LREF showing up to a 40% chance for more than 200 J/kg of CAPE, and up to a 20% chance from the NBM that greater than 0.1 inches of rain occurs. Still, light rain from this system seems to be the most likely scenario. Chances for showers may continue on Sunday from embedded shortwave activity.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are likely to persist through the 06Z TAF period. Light NW or variable winds will prevail through mid- afternoon. Winds will abruptly shift to the NNE or NE and increase to 15-25 knots during a cold frontal passage late this afternoon (~22-01Z). Gusts to 30-35 knots are possible through the evening, in the wake of the front. A few showers, possibly a brief storm, may accompany or follow the frontal passage. Confidence in convective development, coverage and location is low enough to preclude explicit mention. MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected to develop shortly after the 06Z TAF period.. by sunrise (~09-12Z) Tuesday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.