textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances Friday night through Saturday, with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two south of Interstate 70 late Friday night.

- Risk for high wind, critical fire weather and blowing dust on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 115 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Light precipitation currently over the northern Rockies will gradually spread into the eastern plains of northern Colorado and southern Wyoming tonight, associated with a weak shortwave embedded in the southwest flow aloft. However, as it approaches the ridge axis near the Colorado/Kansas border overnight it will begin to weaken. Can't completely rule out some light sprinkles or a hundredth of an inch, but chances for measurable precipitation tonight through Friday morning are low, confined mainly to northern Yuma County, Colorado. Otherwise, will see partly cloudy skies with low temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

Friday will be dry with persistent shortwave ridging ahead of the approaching system. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Rain chances will finally begin Friday night, spreading north to south as the upper trough moves in from Colorado. Rain chances continue through the day Saturday with best chances south of Interstate 70. Total QPF for the event will generally be less than a quarter of an inch, and less than a tenth of an inch north of I-70, though there is the potential for some locally higher amounts of up to a half inch if convection can develop. HRRR does show up to 300 j/kg of MUCAPE between 06z and 12z Friday night in northwest Kansas south of I-70 and is even producing some lightning strikes in that area. After 12z, the MUCAPE rapidly goes to zero, ending the threat of convection. With the clouds and precipitation highs on Saturday will likely remain in the 50s and lows Saturday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s with clearing skies.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 115 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Ridging looks to be overhead throughout the day on Sunday, as a shortwave trough embedded in the flow travels eastward across the Northern United States. An attendant surface low pressure to this trough is forecast to establish southerly to southwesterly flow across the forecast area throughout most of the day, which would allow for warmer, drier conditions compared to initial periods in the forecast. High temperatures in the mid to upper-60s are possible across the CWA Sunday, in addition to RH values in the upper- teens to low-20s across portions of the Tri-State area. Fire weather is not yet a major concern, as RH values would need to drop a few more points from the current forecast to reach thresholds for locally critical fire weather. Still, NBM guidance suggests wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible for portions of Eastern Colorado, which could still allow fires to spread more rapidly than normal. Similar conditions are forecasted Monday ahead of another upper level trough approaching from the Western United States, although wind gusts may be a bit lower. Currently, NBM guidance suggests that about a 60% chance exists that wind gusts on Monday will be allowed to reach locally critical fire weather thresholds for portions of Eastern Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed either day rests around 5-10%, with Sunday slightly more concerning than Monday due to the higher wind gusts.

Warm, dry conditions are forecast to continue on Tuesday, as southwesterly upper level flow establishes itself across the Western United States. An 80-100 kt jet streak embedded in this flow is forecast to overspread the Desert Southwest, with an embedded shortwave trough located across the Rocky Mountains. A surface low pressure system looks to form across portions of Wyoming and Colorado in association with the shortwave. A combination of upper level divergence caused by the upper-level jet streak's left exit region and lee cyclogenesis may promote significant deepening of the surface system. Strong southwesterly surface flow could form in association with this process. Wind gusts may be allowed to reach 25+ mph across the CWA through the late morning and afternoon hours, with wind gusts over 40 mph forecast for counties along the KS-CO Border. NBM guidance suggests about a 30-40% chance for sustained winds to exceed High Wind Warning Criteria across portions of Eastern Colorado. Additionally, RH values in the mid to upper-teens across the forecast area are possible, which could implicate fire weather as a concern. Guidance suggests about a 50% chance or better for wind gusts to meet fire weather criteria across the Tri-State area. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is highest across Eastern Colorado, resting around 75% or better. If higher end wind gusts are allowed to extend into Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska as guidance indicates is possible, further RFWs may be needed. Also, considering the dry conditions forecasted between Sunday and Tuesday, blowing dust may become an additional hazard. High temperatures in the upper-60s to mid-70s are possible.

Another upper level trough is forecast to move across the Western United States throughout the day on Wednesday. Winter weather may be experienced as this system passes through the forecast area, though model guidance suggests that the system could move through the CWA anytime between Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. If the system does not arrive until Thursday warmer conditions may be experienced Wednesday. Forecast highs are currently in the mid-50s to low-60s, but could be lower if this upper-level system is able to move over the forecast area early on Wednesday. Rain is the most likely form of precipitation with this system, though snow can not be ruled out if it is allowed to fall during the night when temperatures are colder. Cooler conditions would be favored toward the end of the period once this system has passed the forecast area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1004 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the period. There are some weak, scattered showers moving across the region overnight. KGLD has a 25-30% chance of seeing this precipitation move over the terminal leading to brief MVFR conditions between 6-9Z. KMCK has a 10-15% chance of the same between 10-13Z. Winds will remain variable until the midday, but a few southerly gusts up to 15 kts are possible before then.

Widespread precipitation is expected to start moving into the area between 0-6Z. Intensity of the precipitation onset is still in question, hence the prob30 groups. Around and after 6Z, expect rapidly lowering ceilings as the bulk of the precipitation moves in, likely IFR conditions. Any precipitation that occurs over the next couple of days will have increased icing threats.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.