textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief period of patchy fog is possible around or shortly after sunrise this morning over a very limited portion of the area, mainly in far eastern Norton/Graham counties.

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will prevail through the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1205 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Overview: A pronounced ridge over the western CONUS will weaken/erode.. and speedy NW flow aloft in the lee of the Rockies will weaken and back to the W.. in this period as an upper level low and additional shortwave energy moving ashore the California coast (this morning) tracks E across the Intermountain West and 4-Corners (today-tonight) then ESE-SE across the Southern Plains (Fri-Fri night).

Today-Tonight: Weak horizontal thermal advection (ill-defined MSLP-850 mb height gradient, weak low-level flow) and a thick veil of orographically enhanced cirrus (per forecast soundings and IR satellite trends) suggest that temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, albeit still above average.. with highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's and overnight / Friday morning lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's.

Fri-Fri night: Shortwave energy progressing ESE-SE from the 4-Corners to the Southern Plains (TX Panhandle/OK) will remain well south of the Tri-State area (i.e. unlikely to affect sensible weather conditions in the Goodland CWA). Further north, guidance suggests that low-level warm advection/frontogenesis on the eastern periphery of a modest lee cyclone in southeast Wyoming could potentially aid in the development of light precipitation over portions of the Nebraska Panhandle into central Nebraska (along/north of I-80) during the day on Fri. While said precipitation would not directly affect the Goodland CWA, evaporative cooling and airmass modification stemming from said precipitation could influence temperatures over a limited portion of the area.. most likely in Red Willow/Norton counties. With the above in mind, expect dry conditions and temperatures similar to today.. except in northeast portions of the area where highs will likely be several degrees cooler (lower 50's).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 100 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Sat-Tue: Long range guidance suggests that an amplifying upper level ridge over the western CONUS (Sat) will shift eastward over the central CONUS early next week.. as a complex, fractured upper level trough slowly progresses ashore the Pacific Coast. Expect dry conditions and well above average temperatures.

Wed-Thu: Low confidence in forecast specifics. Long range guidance suggests a potential for active weather mid-late week.. when a portion of the complex, fractured Pacific Coast trough is prognosticated to progress east across the Rockies. Considerable model-to-model and run-to-run variation exists with regard to the track/evolution of this feature, enough-so that.. little more can be divined at this range.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 955 PM MST Wed Dec 31 2025

GLD: VFR conditions and light/variable winds will rule through the TAF period, with ceilings confined to cirrus at or above 13,000 ft AGL.

MCK: At 0445Z this evening, the southwestern periphery of ongoing IFR ceilings in central Nebraska was located near Aurora (~100+ nautical miles ENE of the McCook terminal). While ongoing low stratus and/or fog will likely make some progress toward the south and west by sunrise Thu, current runs of high resolution guidance suggest that sub-VFR conditions will remain at least ~40 nautical miles east of the McCook terminal. With the above in mind, VFR conditions and light/variable winds are expected to rule through the TAF period.. with ceilings confined to cirrus at or above ~18,000 ft AGL.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.