textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few storms will develop in northeast CO late this afternoon and track east across the area this evening, ending by midnight MDT.

- An isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail, localized wind gusts up to 65 mph and/or a brief tornado is possible in northeast CO until ~7 pm MDT.

- An elevated severe storm capable of producing quarter to golf ball size hail is possible in northwest KS this evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Today-Tonight: Shortwave energy approaching the 4-Corners at 19 UTC will track ENE across the central Rockies (this evening) and adjoining High Plains (tonight). An associated lee cyclone developing near the CO-NM-OK border this afternoon will track eastward along/near the KS-OK border toward Liberal, KS this evening then ENE-NE across central-northeast KS tonight.. along the southern and eastern periphery of a cool, shallow airmass /inverted surface ridge/ extending southward from Nebraska into southwest KS. The evolution of this cool, shallow airmass (and extent to which it modifies and recedes northward this afternoon) remains central to virtually all important aspects of the forecast, as it will be a key factor determining the precise track of the lee cyclone.. and northern extent of the warm sector. Elevated convection this morning effectively reinforced the cool, shallow airmass.. resulting in a considerable (300+ J/kg) pool of convective inhibition over western KS.. a pool unlikely to be dislodged by a relatively short period of modest southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the developing lee cyclone, which will now very likely assume a more southerly track (i.e. the cool, near homogenous airmass over western KS will confine/hold the baroclinic zone further south). Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST continue to suggest that any appreciable convective development this afternoon will be confined to northeast CO, where the cooler airmass is far shallower /likely to mix-out/ and a narrow portion of the warm sector will extend as far north as Yuma County for a brief period (~22-01 UTC).. until low- level flow shifts to the NE and N. During this brief period, instability will be marginal (~100-500 J/kg MLCAPE), at best.. marginal enough that updrafts may struggle to survive (let alone utilize) 60-70 KT of effective deep layer shear. With the above in mind, expect a marginal severe weather potential with any surface based updrafts in northeast CO between ~22-01 UTC. A short 'window of opportunity' for elevated severe storms may exist over northwest KS later this evening as the aforementioned shortwave energy approaches from the west and low-level warm advection/ frontogenesis strengthens on the E-ENE periphery of the eastward advancing 850 mb low.

Mon-Tue night: Expect slightly below average temperatures and episodic cloud cover / shower chances associated with progressive small amplitude waves and/or cyclonic shear vorticity on the northern fringe of a strengthening W-WSW upper level jet over the Desert Southwest, 4-Corners and Southern Plains.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 106 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

***Synopsis***

Troughing appears to be favored across the Western United States Wednesday morning. This pattern would favor a broad surface low pressure across the Desert Southwest. Ensemble guidance seems to indicate that this troughing will to move in overhead Thursday, and potentially last into Saturday. This would be associated with a broad surface high pressure system moving southeastward out of Canada, and remaining to the north of the CWA. Model guidance begins to become a bit more divergent with the evolution of the upper-level pattern Saturday, specifically regarding when the troughing overhead will move out and be replaced by ridging above. Ensemble guidance is leaning toward ridging replacing the trough sometime Saturday morning or afternoon, and lasting through the end of the period.

***Wednesday***

With troughing favored to the west of the CWA, conditions may warm slightly from Tuesday, with current forecast temperatures in the mid to upper-60s. In addition, with the incoming surface low pressure, there may be some chances for precipitation. While rain is possible across the entire area Wednesday, the highest probability for precipitation exists across portions of Yuma and Kit Carson Counties in Colorado, with around a 40-45% chance of receiving more than 0.1 inches of rain. Some of this activity may be from showers and or thunderstorms, as LREF guidance shows over a 90% chance for CAPE (instability) to be present. However, there is a 75% chance that this CAPE is less than 200 J/kg across the area. With LREF 500-mb winds in the 35-45 kt range, stronger storms may be capable of becoming severe. However, the lower amounts of instability would indicate that much of the activity may be limited to showers and possibly weaker thunderstorms.

***Thursday/Friday***

Conditions are favored to cool a little bit Thursday as troughing moves in overhead and the surface high from Canada moves into the Northern Plains and Midwest. Forecast highs are in the upper-50s to mid-60s Thursday. A minor return flow may develop across portions of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Friday that slightly increases temperatures, though forecast highs are still anticipated in the upper-50s to upper-60s. Precipitation is possible once again both days, with up to a 50% chance that over 0.1 inches of rain is experienced. Showers and thunderstorms may cause some of this activity. Thursday looks a bit more probable for convective showers and storms, with at least a 2 out of 3 chance for CAPE to be present across the area, but a 90% chance or better that it will remain below 200 J/kg. With 500-mb winds topping out at around 35 kts, severe potential looks to remain relatively low. These parameters are even lower on Friday, which would indicate light rain and possibly localized weaker showers.

***Saturday/Sunday***

Again, models begin to diverge regarding the upper-level pattern Saturday, though ridging appears to be favored. This is reflected in the forecast highs for Saturday and Sunday in the mid-60s to lower- 70s, and lower to upper-70s respectively. Precipitation may continue to hang around as the upper-level troughing moves out of the area Saturday, though becomes much less likely. The greatest potential for precipitation to occur on Saturday is across East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas, and is as high as a 50% chance according to the LREF. However, this is more likely to be light rain, as the precipitation is associated with a 25% chance or less for over 0.1 inches. Precipitation chances continue to decrease on Sunday, with ridging fully favored overhead according to 500-mb mean height guidance from the GEFS and EC ensembles.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 445 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

GLD: Broken MVFR ceilings (occasionally scattering to VFR) will prevail until sunset. IFR ceilings are likely to return after sunset, with further deterioration to LIFR expected overnight. Ceilings will begin to lift/improve to MVFR an hour or two after sunrise (~14Z). MVFR ceilings may linger into the early to mid afternoon before lifting/scattering to VFR. Light SE-ESE winds will shift to the E around sunset then NE to N overnight, remaining light until sunrise. Breezy, 15-25 knot NNW winds will develop after sunrise and persist through the afternoon.

MCK: Ongoing IFR conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the afternoon. Deterioration to LIFR is likely to occur after sunset, with LIFR conditions persisting overnight. Improvement to IFR-MVFR will begin to occur around sunrise. MVFR ceilings may linger into the early to mid afternoon before lifting/scattering to VFR. Light ENE winds will shift to the NE and N overnight. Breezy, 15-25 knot NW winds will follow, after sunrise, and persist through the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.