textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Large range of temperatures today with highs in the low/mid 40s (Yuma county ) to the low 70s (Greeley/Wichita)

- Breezy to gusty winds are forecast this afternoon and may lead to blowing dust with visibilities less than one mile (20% chance) along and south of Highway 40.

- Early Tuesday morning, a freeze watch is in effect for Eastern Colorado where temperatures could drop into the upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

A weak surface trough remains across the northern portion of the area as is forecast to lead to isolated showers and storms favoring Yuma county through the early morning hours. Just southeast of the area a cold front has stalled out leading to training storms. The position of this front is very important for the forecast for Monday. First off however northeast flow is forecast to remain in place with stratus and perhaps some fog as well but the fog potential is rather low as winds are forecast to be breezy around 10-20 mph sustained. Am seeing some isentropic ascent as well overnight leading to the continued potential for drizzle or light showers developing across most of the area. Dry air above 700mb should help any prevent any updraft from utilizing any remaining MUCAPE aloft so not expecting any overnight storms due to this.

Monday, as mentioned above the positioning of the boundary tonight will be very important for temperatures and even blowing dust potential. The cold front that moved through the area today is forecast to be stalled out as a stationary front. Some guidance continues to show it being stalled out roughly around Highway 40 in the southern part of the forecast area; whereas others has it south of the of the area across southwest Kansas. If the front does remain around Highway 40 then temperatures south of there would be around 5- 10 degrees warmer than what is currently forecast at this time along with elevated to even very locally critical fire weather conditions in place. Blowing dust would with visibilities falling to around 1 mile or less would also be possible with plumes of dust. Around 21Z a stronger surge of cold air advection is forecast to move in as a low pressure system pulls off to the east. If the warmer air in place remains in the area then a haboob could be possible as mixing heights are forecast to be around 6000 feet AGL. With all of this have decided to introduce patchy blowing dust into the forecast as confidence is around 20% in dust developing and around 5-10% in a haboob. Have been noticing a more southern trend with the positioning of the stationary front in ensembles and most of 00Z data and if that does continue then any dust threat would be eliminated. Winds are forecast to increase with gusts around 50-55 mph with the front especially south of Interstate 70 and gusts up to 40 mph elsewhere from the north. The winds will also lead to chilly wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s especially across Yuma county where temperatures may struggle to warm up much.

With persistent low clouds currently forecast to remain in place through the day and the signal for the stationary boundary to remain south of the area have nudged down temperatures more. High temperatures are currently in the mid 40s to mid 50s behind the front and 70s to low 80s ahead of the front. If the front indeed is south of the area then any severe threat would also be eliminated. Showers and storms however are forecast to develop during the afternoon hours with some 500mb vorticity off of the mountains but minimal CAPE and what is forecast to be a fairly stable environment so anticipating any hazards with this activity at this time.

Cold air advection is forecast to continue through the night Monday. Guidance continues to suggest that stratus returns or even continues in spots. Breezy winds are forecast to remain in place for the majority of the night with the exception being across eastern Colorado where a surface high is forecast to move in from the northwest waning winds. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s across eastern Colorado. There are some failure points to how cold it may get however. The first one is the lingering low level moisture in place keeping low clouds across the area. The other is the breezy winds through the night. With all of this in place confidence is not high enough to upgrade to a warning or even Frost Advisory at this time so will leave the watch as is.

Tuesday, the surface high is forecast to be over more of the area leading to lighter winds and from the east. Another cool day is forecast across the area with highs currently forecast in the 60s. Dry conditions are currently forecast for most of the day but an advancing 500mb shortwave off of the mountains is forecast to gradually increase shower potential starting during the evening and overnight hours. Minimal CAPE is forecast to be present so currently not anticipating any thunderstorm potential with this activity.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Wednesday, our region is forecast under a southwest upper-level flow with a weak trough developing west of the Rocky Mountains and a ridge building off the west coast. Wednesday will be cool and windy with high temperatures forecast in the 60s and wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph are possible west of Highway 27. Several embedded shortwaves will pass through the region bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The entire county warning area (CWA) has a Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-40% during the day Wednesday. PoPs increase in the evening to around 60-70% and persist overnight into Thursday for the southern CWA.

Conditions remain unseasonably cool for Thursday with highs again forecast in the 60s. Our region remains in a southwest upper-level flow with embedded shortwaves passing through, so chances for showers and thunderstorms continue. Cooler temperatures and a mostly stable environment will likely keep and storms that develop sub- severe. Pops range from 30-60% Thursday overnight into Friday with the southern CWA on the higher end.

Ensembles are in disagreement on when the aforementioned trough ejects eastward and takes us out of the persistent southwest flow, but it will likely move on after Friday. A slight warming trend begins Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Friday and 80s for Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain Friday through Saturday with PoPs around 20-30% for the eastern CWA as several shortwaves pass through the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1104 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Stratus is currently developing across the area as ceilings are forecast to drop to MVFR. A gradually drop to IFR is also forecast as well along with the potential for some light showers or drizzle overnight for each terminal. Confidence in the showers is around 20-30%. Stratus is forecast to continue for most if not all of the day for each terminal with perhaps a brief break around 00Z before returning again as the sun sets.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ090>092. NE...None.