textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog this morning across the area may occasionally reduce visibility to less than one mile.

- Large temperature gradient across the area over the weekend, with colder temperatures generally east of Highway 83/23 and milder temperatures in Colorado.

- Milder temperatures in the 50s, 60s, and maybe 70s return early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

Shallow cold air mass behind a cold front will sag into the area through this morning. Models show low clouds developing behind it over approximately the northeast half of the forecast area by 18z. RAP develops fog along/ahead of the leading edge of the front in northeast Colorado and adjacent northwest Kansas counties this morning, with saturation deep enough for drizzle as well. However, HRRR does not show this, and LAMP visibilities do not either, so confidence is low but will mention some patchy fog in that area. The low clouds slowly lift out to the northeast this afternoon, but stalls out in far northeast corner from McCook to Norton where they linger through tonight. Leaned toward cooler guidance for high temperatures in those areas where temperatures may not get out of the 30s, but stayed near guidance elsewhere with highs in the 40s to possibly lower 50s in Colorado which will see the most afternoon sun. Could see some patchy fog develop tonight in the northeast corner as well where wind direction has an easterly component, but westerly winds elsewhere will prevent fog formation. Low temperatures will be in the 20s.

The front surges south again Saturday with brisk northeasterly winds by the afternoon gusting up to 20 kts. Forecast soundings show only limited mixing with a stout inversion above 850 mb, so do not think winds will get much higher. There will be a large temperature gradient across the area, with high temperatures ranging from the middle 30s from McCook to Norton, to around 60 in Cheyenne County, Colorado. Low temperatures Saturday night will be mainly in the teens, perhaps some single digits in far eastern areas from McCook to Norton and Hill City.

On Sunday will still be dealing with a large temperature gradient which essentially bisects the forecast area along Highways 25/83. Eastern areas will see high temperatures in the 30s, while western areas will see high temperatures in the 40s and 50s, possibly lower 60s in Colorado. Southwest surface winds will increase to 20-25 kts by the afternoon, but once again mixing heights will be limited by an inversion around 800 mb. Lows Sunday night will be in the 20s.

Cold air finally gets scoured out Monday with an upper ridge building over the plains. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will shift to the north behind a surface trough moving out of Colorado, with speeds less than 20 mph. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s with light west winds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 100 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

Models show a zonal flow across the CONUS during the long term period. A cut off low will remain far to the south in Mexico. No precipitation is expected. Temperatures remain quite mild for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs well into the 60s or even 70s on Wednesday, then cool on Thursday behind a weak cold front into the 50s, which is still above normal for this time of year. Afternoon relative humidity minimums will drop into the teens Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to fire weather concerns. Winds appear to be light on Tuesday, but do increase on Wednesday, so will have some potential to reach critical conditions on that day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1019 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. However, there is a 20-30% chance the MVFR or IFR ceilings will spread west and impact KGLD around 8-18Z tomorrow morning.

KMCK will likely remain in MVFR conditions until tomorrow morning when they will worsen to IFR or LIFR between 11-17Z. Near the end of the TAF period, conditions will start improving. Freezing fog or freezing drizzle, in addition to heavy low level icing, are expected at KMCK tonight into tomorrow morning. Visibilities are currently forecast to remain at or above 2-3 SM, however there is a 30% chance less than 1/2 SM visibilities occur tomorrow morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.