textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures will persist.

- Storms are forecast late this afternoon and through the evening with wind gusts up to 75 mph possible. Some instances of hail around golf ball size are possible with any discrete storms.

- Severe storms are again possible Thursday afternoon. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary threat. A large to very large hail threat may materialize if initial storms can remain discrete for a prolonged amount of time.

- Multiple hours of fire weather may be possible Friday across eastern Colorado.

- A few afternoon and evening storms possible on Independence Day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A surface low is slowing moving to the east across the area. On the back end of the low some drier air is forecast to move in across eastern Colorado and move into NW Kansas as a dryline. A 2nd boundary is forecast to develop along the eastern side of the low and may be the focus for some storm attempts this afternoon east of Highway 25. A brief landspout may be possible with steep lapse rates and unstable conditions at the surface but the lack of strong surface convergence should limit any prolonged landspout concerns. A cap is seen in soundings around 700mb which should overall inhibit storm chances during the afternoon but with high temperatures forecasted very close to the convective temperatures, I can't rule out a storm breaking the afternoon cap. If this were to occur then hail around 2 inches would be the primary threat along with damaging winds. Confidence in this is currently around 10-20%.

A shortwave within southwesterly flow is forecast to move into the area during the late afternoon into the early evening hours. This is forecast to be the areas greatest threat for storms for the day. Damaging wind gusts around 70 mph currently looks to be the main threat in the form of wet microbursts. There is some signal that brief periods of cold pool driven wind could occur as well but the signal for cold pools is not as strong as it was for yesterdays severe event. The main severe threat with this is forecast to start as early as 4pm MT and last through around 10pm MT. A 700mb jet is forecast to develop around 03Z and last through the night which may aid in some new development or some back building of the already ongoing storms but currently think any severe threat with this wave should be relatively low as guidance does indicate some drier air in the mixing level.

Thursday, southwesterly mid level flow is forecast to continue similar to the previous days but with a slight eastward progression which is forecast to lead to warmer temperatures than today with highs in the low 90s across Yuma county to the upper 90s across NW Kansas. A dry line is forecast to set up across eastern Colorado during the afternoon which is again forecast to be the initiation source for storms during the afternoon and into the evening along with a developing low across eastern Colorado. Initial storms starting around 3pm MT are forecast to be supercells with hail up to tennis balls with 40 knot shear and MUCAPE of 3500-4000 j/kg and steep lapse rates up to 9.0c/km. Another embedded shortwave is forecast to move into the area during the late afternoon hours and should provide more lift to end the supercell threat and merge cells into a cluster as moves to the east-northeast with an increasing 700mb jet driving it. Storms are forecast to be out of the area by 11pm CT.

Friday, similar pattern to Thursday but with even further east progression. This is forecast to lead to even warmer temperatures across the area in the mid 90s to low 100s. Overall good agreement within guidance that the dry line from the previous day will continue to move to the east. Very dry conditions are forecast to occur behind the dryline due to mixing up to 15,000 feet AGL which based on current guidance would support wind gust potential to 30 mph. NAM surface to 30mb AGL dew points suggest even drier air than forecast being in place across Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado. Per discussions with fuels partners across eastern Colorado fuels have begun to cure again leading to a risk for critical fire weather conditions. Am opting to hold off on a Fire Weather Watch at least for one more run of guidance to ensure that this signal still remains in place and the duration of the conditions doesn't decrease. A few storms are possible again during the late afternoon and early evening hours Friday as another shortwave is currently forecast to clip the area. Due to this the forcing is a bit weaker but widely scattered storms are possible across the area with damaging winds again the main threat.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

***Thursday/Friday***

Thursday morning, a 500-mb high looks to be set up across the Eastern United States, with troughing across the west. This pattern would produce southwesterly upper-level flow across the County Warning Area (CWA). Several shortwave systems may be embedded in this flow. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance is consistent on a shortwave ridge overhead to start the period, with a shortwave trough that comes through during the afternoon and evening hours. A surface low pressure at the leading edge of this shortwave trough would establish southerly surface winds across the forecast region throughout the day. Temperatures are likely to be hot, with current forecast guidance suggesting highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area.

Winds to the south of the low may be a bit more southwesterly. This would promote drying conditions, particularly across portions of East-Central Colorado. According to LREF guidance, the western halves of Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado have over a 50% chance of relative humidities (RH) dropping below 15%, with as high as an 80% chance along their western borders. Forecast guidance suggests that RH values dropping into the single-digits. Wind gusts may increase through the afternoon hours as well, with NBM guidance suggesting up to a 75% chance for gusts to exceed critical fire weather criteria (>25 mph). The good news is that recent rainfall may prevent significant drying of fuels, limiting the risk for critical fire weather. If fuels can become dry enough, a Red Flag Warning may need to be considered across this zone.

Thunderstorm activity may also be in play Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of a dryline. LREF guidance suggests a 75% chance or greater to see surface-based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values 1000 J/kg or higher along and east of Kansas Highway 25. However, the same guidance suggests that 0-500mb wind shear will max out around 30 kts in this zone, which would suggest mostly non-severe thunderstorms. The best chance for any severe weather would be if near 90th percentile CAPE can be experienced (2500-3500 J/kg), which could promote hail earlier in the storms' life cycles. Confidence in severe thunderstorms occurring Thursday afternoon and evening is 5% or less at this time.

Similar conditions are possible on Friday, except without the thunderstorm potential. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Forecast guidance suggests that RH values may drop into the mid single-digits in some locations of East- Central Colorado. However, wind gusts look to be a bit lighter during the afternoon than on Thursday. Even if fuels are able to dry out significantly by then, the confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is low at this time.

***Saturday***

Ensemble guidance is confident in troughing from the west lifting northeast by Saturday, as another shortwave trough moves in overhead. As this occurs, a cold front is favored to move through the area. High temperatures are forecast slightly lower in the lower to upper 90s, but RH values look to improve a bit as this process takes place. Thunderstorms may occur along the cold front as well. LREF guidance suggests that 0-500mb shear may reach the 30-40 kt range, which could support some thunderstorms becoming severe. Even so, confidence in a severe event Saturday afternoon and evening is only about 5%.

***Sunday-Tuesday***

Upper-level ridging looks to take over by Sunday, and last through the end of the forecast period. A slow moving high at the leading edge of this system may prevent winds from becoming fully out of the south until Tuesday. This is reflected in the forecast highs of upper 80s and lower 90s Sunday and Monday, and low to mid 90s on Tuesday. Additionally, easterly surface winds from this high on Sunday and Monday could produce a convergence zone across Kansas. This boundary may support thunderstorm development as well. Confidence is low at this time that these storms will become severe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1054 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period. A low pressure system is moving across the area shifting winds. MCK is a bit tricky as a boundary is forecast to be in place over or very near the terminal keeping winds light and variable. If the boundary doesn't affect the terminal then winds around 10 knots would occur. Am watching the potential for showers and storms this afternoon and evening for each terminal but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. LLWS is also a concern as well for each terminal.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.