textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions along with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast through the end of the week.

- Low storm chances may return to western portions of the area over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1204 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Current RAP analysis shows a a surface high across the Midwest which has slightly expanded westward and a surface low across the Front Range is going to continue to pinch the forecast area in a tight pressure gradient through the night. A developing 30-40 knot 850mb jet is forecast to strengthen along and west of the Kansas/Colorado state line. Some subtle 1 hour pressure rises remains seen on the 00Z RAP and NAM which suggests to me that breezy winds around 15-20 mph are forecast along with gusts up to 30 mph through the night should the hourly pressure rises occur. Differing from the past few mornings there is little concern of any fog or stratus potential across the area due to higher winds.

Tuesday, ridging and high pressure remains in place with very little change in the overall pattern. Winds also do appear to be very similar as well to Monday with sustained winds of 10-20 mph. High temperatures are also currently forecast to be similar as well with highs in the low 90s but could end up being a little bit lower if cloud cover can increase during the afternoon. As the day goes on a westward moving 500mb jet is forecast to move into the area putting the area in the left exit region of this jet, may need to keep an eye on some potential shower or storm development initially across eastern portions of the area but a slightly higher potential across easter as this interacts with an 850mb jet during the late afternoon and evening hours across eastern Colorado. Weak CAPE around 500-800 j/kg and weak shear of 10-15 knots are seen in forecast soundings which suggests that any severe potential is very very small but will have to watch the potential for strong downbursts with storms in the dissipating phase with DCAPE around 1200 j/kg. Breezy winds are forecast to continue through the evening as well as the low level jet increases through the evening hours with sustained winds around 20 mph sustained and potentially gusting 30-35 mph. These winds should have a better potential of mixing down as RAP and HRRR data both support 3 hour pressure rises across eastern Colorado as the low level jet increases so have increased winds a little bit through 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday, a semi pattern change is forecast as low pressure across the southern Plains. This should help bring a slight reprieve to temperatures as highs in the mid to upper 80s are possible to occur. Will continue with the highs in the low 90s for this forecast package until confidence increases. Winds for the day appear to be weaker from Monday and Tuesday as guidance indicates the 850mb jet decreasing to around 10-20 knots and the continued lack of any 700mb jets. Am noticing some very subtle 700mb frontogenesis bands across eastern portions of the area along with convective temperatures being met which may be enough for a rogue stationary shower or storm to develop. If this were to occur then some lighting and perhaps a brief downpour would be the main impacts as PWATS are forecast to be in the 1.1-1.2 range.

Thursday, low pressure across the southern Plains expands breaks down our high pressure some, albeit still pushing the jet stream even further north into Canada. A signal for warmer temperatures is being seen with this however as winds currently appear to be a bit weaker along with lower dewpoints falling into the low 50s across eastern Colorado and the low 60s across eastern counties. If efficient enough mixing can occur then dew points could fall a little lower for counties along and west of Highway 25 but over the past few weeks guidance has not been handling the moist air mass in place well as dew points have been higher than forecast so not completely jumping on board with the lower dew point solution at this time quite yet. High temperatures for the day are currently in the low 90s but could see a scenario where they rise into the mid 90s if lower dew points can occur.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The upper pattern does undergo a subtle shift in the long term period. The anticyclone over the northern plains gets shunted to the southeast, only to be replaced by another one that strengthens over the northern Rockies this weekend. The upper low over Texas also shifts westward and is located over southern New Mexico/northern Mexico by Sunday. So the Rex block continues but will shift further west. The central plains remains displaced from the main storm track well to the north over the ridge, but may start to see some storms drift off the Front Range by the weekend with the reorientation of the upper pattern. Chances still look to be on the low end as initiation will be diurnally driven and storms will fade as they get further east in the late afternoon to early evening. Severe threat, if any, will likely be limited to gusty winds and blowing dust with the lack of shear and weak forcing. Temperatures show a slow, gradual increase through the period, and by Sunday highs will be in the mid 90s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Winds have been a bit weaker than anticipated so low level wind shear is a bit more of a concern for each terminal with a longer duration at GLD as the low level jet is a bit more oriented along the CO/KS line. Forecast soundings suggest that the low level jet should wane at MCK around 09Z or so. If winds can increase some to around 15 knots then LLWS would be less of a concern. Winds from the late morning on are forecast to increase again to around 15 knots sustained. Mid level cloud cover is forecast to increase some through the day along with a very small potential for pop up showers and storms. Confidence is too low for any direct impacts to either terminal to include in this TAF issuance.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.