textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler on Tuesday with temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

- There are chances for isolated t scattered storms each evening/overnight through Thursday night. Chances for precipitation as a whole though are a bit lower around 40% or less.

- Warming back towards the 100s over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1223 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Showers and storms were continuing to push east in Northwest Kansas and parts of Eastern Colorado close to the midnight hour. This main batch should fizzle out or move out of the area by 3am. This doesn't mean we'll be finished though as the storms have moistened the environment while the front is pushing through and with storm outflows lingering. It wouldn't be unreasonable for pop up showers through the night. Thankfully, these should be sub-severe with most of the instability in the area used up. With the higher dewpoints and continued cloud cover, temperatures will likely stay in the 60s and 70s through the rest of the night. Meanwhile as the front moves through, winds have been strengthening on the backside. Speeds for much of the area through the night should reach 15-30 mph with gusts of 20-40 mph. It wouldn't be unreasonable for a few gusts to 50 mph right around sunrise as the inversion begins to lift and the front pushes off.

For the daytime hours, winds should slowly lower through the day as the surface low weakens. While the low may weaken or become more broad, it may still be strong enough to help transport some moisture into the area and provide some lift. Combining this with the broad troughing over the Plains, there may be a few showers and storms that form through the day. They should be somewhat short lived though with early cloud cover limiting instability. The cloud cover is also forecast to help keep the area cool with temperatures forecast to be in the 60s/70s through most of the day. Most of the area should max out in the 70s, maybe the low 80s if the cloud cover and precipitation clears out early.

During the late afternoon and evening hours, showers and storms could form along the northern edge of the surface low and along the Front Range. The current consensus is that the low should be far enough into Southwest Kansas that most of this activity misses the area to the south. If it did shift, locales along and south of Highway 40 could see some precipitation with a low risk for hail around an inch in size, and maybe a gust or two around 60-70 mph.

Another batch of showers and storms is possible after midnight. This looks to be possible from a mix of saturating air, a potential upper shortwave swinging through, and a 700mb jet developing and creating a convergence zone around the Nebraska border. If the conditions do align, the storms should form along the edge of the low level jet and may be capable of producing hail around 1-1.5" with 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 0-6km shear near 40 kts. Any shift though in the shortwave or if the surface low shifts further north may cause the whole set up to fail. Prior convection and outflows may also interfere. This leads to somewhat low confidence that anything would form or be strong, but we'll see how this all evolves. Otherwise, winds should become fairly light and temperatures cool into the 50s and 60s.

Wednesday, the morning will be a bit dependent on if storms fire up over the prior night. If they did, they could linger through much of the morning hours for the north. They wouldn't likely be severe, but would slow how quickly northern portions of the area warm. Otherwise, another relatively mild day is forecast with temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s as the upper trough remains in place over the Plains. Winds are forecast to be fairly light from the east as broad low pressure seems to be the most likely scenario.

Wednesday evening and into the overnight, another low level jet is possible, though likely much further south as the mid level trough digs through most of the area. With this, the chance for overnight storms is forecast to be more south of I-70 and maybe completely out of the area. If it storms do form, they'll run the same low risk for large hail in a similar environment to Tuesday night.

Thursday, the daytime hours are forecast to likely have clear skies with temperatures warming towards 90 as the upper ridge tries to rebuild and move into the Plains. That being said, ensemble guidance is showing the possibility of the upper low around the Northern United State border potentially deepening and diving a bit south. If so, this may suppress the ridge a bit and keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than currently forecast. Otherwise, the chances for winds above 15 mph and precipitation seem low with a broad low pressure system across much of the region. Even if the upper low does dive south, there is only a modest increase in the surface low strength in ensemble guidance. It seems our chances for any storms would go from around 15% to 30% if that were to occur with a better forcing mechanism in the area. Otherwise, the evening and overnight hours are forecast to remain clear with winds from the south helping to keep temperatures in the 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 207 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be unseasonably warm for the county warning area (CWA). A persistent weak upper-level ridge is forecast to be over the region Friday through early next week. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s on Friday and climb to triple digits Saturday through the remainder of the forecast period. Late Friday into Saturday will be our best chance for precipitation due to weak shortwave passages. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) is only around 15% for the northwest CWA, so little relief from the hot temperatures is expected.

Fire weather potential will be something to monitor for throughout the week. Currently, fuels are dry throughout the entire CWA. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low 20s for the western CWA Saturday and slowly creep down to the mid to high teens through Monday. Afternoon wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible for the western CWA, but lowest RH values and strongest wind gusts are not forecast to coincide, but a few hours of critical fire weather conditions could still be possible given the dry fuels and unseasonably warm temperatures.

Looking further ahead, models are beginning to show a strong ridge set up over the Tri-State area Monday and remain overhead throughout next week. This would support another round of unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions for the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for most of the period. There is the possibility of ceilings dropping into the 1000-2000ft range between 09-18Z, especially at KGLD. Otherwise, winds are forecast to remain strong from the north/northeast through much of the period. Be alert for gusts potentially reaching 30-40 kts around sunrise. Finally, isolated showers/storms remain possible through the period. They should move through quickly and maybe one or two would move over either terminal. Still, be alert for pop up storms. A better chance is forecast after 03Z Wednesday, especially around KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.