textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Wednesday in Colorado. Fire weather concerns linger into the weekend

- Strong winds with an early morning cold front Thursday may produce winds up to 50 MPH.

- Precipitation chances look to return late in the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 155 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Early this morning, we could see some lingering showers and even an isolated rumble of thunder. Any lingering precipitation should be cleared out of the area by sunrise. Lows look to cool into the mid 50s in the western CWA and may stay in the low 70 in the eastern CWA.

During the day Wednesday, a surface high will move in from southeastern Colorado. As it's moving into the CWA during the morning, northwesterly winds along and north of U.S. 36 may briefly see gusts around 30 kts. As the day progresses, winds will weaken, and the southern CWA will see light and variable winds through the midday, before becoming southerly. Where winds are light and variable, temperatures are forecast to rapidly increase into the mid 90s. The northern CWA looks to top out around 90 degrees.

Highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the 30s will allow RH values in Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties to drop into the low to mid teens. Additionally, as the high sets up over the southeastern CWA in the afternoon, southerly flow looks to be gusting around 25-30 kts in eastern Colorado. This has prompted a Red Flag Warning to be issued for these two counties until 2Z. Yuma county may see brief periods of critical fire weather, but winds and RH values are too marginal to warrant a Red Flag Warning.

Chances for precipitation are low today, with the best chances (20%) being well after sunset. If we do get any convection, it looks to be along or east of U.S. 83 and quickly moving out of the area. The threat for severe weather is so low that SPC has removed the marginal severe weather outlook for today. Overnight temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Early Thursday morning, a high coming out of the Northern Rockies is forecast to move southeast into the CWA. This will bring in an early morning cold front, which may produce some gusts in the 30-40 kts range. The front looks to be entering the CWA around 9Z, peak winds occurring around 14-18Z, and gradually weakening throughout the afternoon hours. Highs look to be topping out around 80, but depending on how much CAA moves in with the FROPA, the northwestern CWA could be capped in the low 70s.

Threat wise, there is a 20-25% chance some gusts up around 50 kts will occur. Additionally, there is a low but notable chance for blowing dust. Due to weak lapse rates as the FROPA occurs, the potential for a wall of dust is less than 5%. As we get closer to noon and lapse rates slightly improve, there will be an increased risk for plumes of dust to reduce visibility. As it stands there's about a 25% chance visibility will drop below 1 mile in a plume of blowing dust. The dust threat peaks around 18Z and should be effectively 0 by 22Z. If the front slows down a few hours, the potential for impactful blowing dust increases rapidly.

Additionally, there is a returning risk of critical fire weather conditions for Thursday. The winds mentioned above and RH values dropping into the teens as we reach our daily maximum temperatures are allowing GFDI values to climb above 60 in parts of eastern Colorado. The rest of the area looks to peak in the 30-50 GFDI range.

Winds will weaken in the afternoon and evening hours Thursday as the inverted ridge pushes past the CWA. Winds will be fairly weak overnight and from the east. This should allow temperatures to cool to around 50.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, broad troughing is forecast to be in place across northern portions of the country. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be in place across eastern portions of Kansas into Western Missouri and an inverted surface trough begins to nudge into the area from the west. This is forecast to increase the pressure gradient leading to another day of breezy wind potential. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are currently forecast, but sustained winds may be the bigger story across eastern Colorado and into far northwest Kansas as a 25 knot jet is forecast to be in place and weakening 700mb flow limiting the stronger wind gust potential. Warm temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are again forecast resulting in lowering humidity into the mid teens across eastern Colorado resulting in fire weather concerns again. The location of the dryline that day will be the deciding factor if we have fire weather concerns as the NAM which typically handles dryline placement keeps the entire CWA in the moist sector. If this is the case then we will again need to monitor for isolated severe weather potential during the evening moving in from the west.

Saturday, synoptic pattern remains the same. The difference is at the surface as a front is forecast to be in place across northern portions of the area currently as depicted by the GFS. The ECMWF has cold air advection throughout the day versus the GFS with the above mentioned slower front. If the GFS verifies severe weather would be a concern with straight line hodographs in place along with 2500 j/kg of MUCAPE and wind shear around 35 knots supporting splitting supercells. Future shift will need to continue to keep an eye on this and see if guidance can agree on a solution.

Sunday and into the early part of the work week does appear to be cooler in the wake of the cold front (whenever that does pass through) with highs currently forecast in the 70s. An active pattern does look to continue to persist with NW flow in place across the area and some qpf signal seen in ensembles. It is still too far out to tell for sure if there is any severe potential or if just non impactful rain would occur.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the period. KMCK may see some lingering showers move by the airport before 9Z, which could reduce conditions to MVFR briefly. Winds at KMCK will also be weakening over the next couple of hours as the nocturnal inversion sets up. KMCK and KGLD look to see LLWS from the southwest at 200 feet AGL around 40-45 kts until about 10Z.

We are expecting a weak cold front to shift winds to be from the northwest early this morning, but return to southeasterly tomorrow evening. Expect gusty winds during the day from the northwest, potentially up to 30-35 kts at KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None.