textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant severe weather outbreak possible this afternoon and evening. Supercells will be possible capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two.

- Flash Flooding possible this afternoon and early evening generally north of Interstate 70 and east of Highway 25 for the possibility of an area of slow moving thunderstorms.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday with damaging winds and blowing dust the main hazards.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as well with a Fire Weather Watch issued for Colorado and adjacent Kansas counties for Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 923 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Significant severe weather outbreak possible today, in two rounds. 12z CAMs painting several different scenarios, resulting in only medium confidence. RRFS and HRRR in fairly good agreement that convection will develop north of I-70 along and north of remnant outflow from early storms in Nebraska, though they differ in timing. HRRR is several hours earlier compared to the RRFS. Some clearing has been noted in recent satellite in the Tri Border area, though clouds are persisting further east. The 3-km NAM shows that redevelopment will not occur at all, probably due to persistent clouds. Assuming development does occur as shown by the RRFS and HRRR, the environment will be characterized by 2000-3000 j/kg of SBCAPE, deep layer shear of 40-50 kts and Significant Tornado Parameter values up to 2. Supercells will be likely, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two. RRFS and HRRR show these storms slowly moving through the aforementioned area through the remainder of the afternoon. Given the slow motion, precipitable water values up to 1.5", high mixing ratios advecting in from the southeast, and RRFS/HRRR showing pockets of 2-4" of rainfall, flash flooding will also be possible. Second round of storms will develop along the Front Range this afternoon and approach far eastern Colorado towards 00z and into northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska through 03z. These storms will pose primarily a damaging wind threat, though with the favorable shear continuing cannot totally discount a few embedded supercells with a large hail and a tornado risk. Storms may tend to weaken as they get further east into the area after 03z into the area worked over by earlier convection. Any lingering storms overnight should be widely scattered and not pose a severe threat.

Tuesday, a reinforcing upper trough is forecast to push in from the northwest while the original wave ejects off to the north. As it does so, it is forecast to bring another trough axis near the Plains. This would cause the surface low pressure to deepen and push off to the east, more over the area. As it does so, winds are forecast to strengthen and shift to out of the southwest. Speed are currently forecast to be around 20-30 mph with gusts in the 30-50 mph range. The highers speeds should favor those along the Colorado border. The southwest winds are also forecast to bring in a dryline and dry the air over much of the area. This combination of strong wind and dry air are forecast to produce critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most counties along the Colorado border with the risk for very high fire danger. Burning is not advised as fires would likely be very hard to control. In conjunction with this, the influx of warm air is forecast to allow temperatures to reach the 100s across most of the area. Thankfully, the drier air should keep the overall heat risk down with apparent temperatures lower than the actual temperatures. Still, take extra caution if you are spending any extend period of time outside.

During the afternoon and evening hours, storms are forecast to fire up again with the trough axis and dryline helping to provide additional lift. The lower moisture availability and forecast lower 0-6km shear around 30-35 kts are forecast to have the storms be more pulse in nature. This should limit the chances for severe weather, except when it comes to wind gusts. While there is little signal for widespread strong gusts, the drier air near the surface could help stronger cold pools develop. Some guidance suggests peak wind gusts could get to 80 mph. This would again lead to a concern for blowing dust and potential walls of dust with good organized outflows.

Tomorrow night, any lingering showers or storms should end close to midnight as the trough axis swings into the Plains and pushes the better forcing to the east. It should also push any lingering moisture to the east as well and allow for clearer skies. In spite of the skies clearing, the warm temperatures during the day combined with strong winds around 15-25 mph are forecast to keep temperatures up a bit. Locales in the eastern portion of the area could stay above 70 while those further west close to 60 or just below 60.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The upper pattern on Wednesday has a 500 mb trough moving into the region. There also looks to be some embedded shortwave disturbances associated with the trough as well. Wedneday's high temperatures do show some concern with the highs potentially reaching the 100 degree mark. The NBM and LREF, both are agreeing on there being around a 5- 10% chance for exceeding 100 degrees. This would mainly be for south of Hwy 40. Currently they are forecast to be in the mid to high 90s. There does look to be a cold front, possibly two, that look to move through the area. Winds look to be from the west to northwest, bringing dry conditions. Gusts are forecast to be in the 20-40 mph range. One concern would be blowing dust. Currently there is some signal for localized plumes mainly for west of KS Hwy 27. With the 2- 2.5 km lapse rates being higher than 6.5 C/km, this would allow for the dust to mix out and present air quality issues.

There is some fire weather concern with Wednesday for the Colorado Counties. There could be Critical Fire Weather may be present. Looking at GFDI the values are 60+. For Western Kit Carson County and Northwestern Cheyenne County, CO there are peak values up to 80. This would be supportive of very high to extreme fire growth. Relative Humidity (RH) values lower into the lower teens around 20Z Wednesday to 0Z Thursday. The one variable is the gusts, the main concern is will the peak gusts be in line with the lower RH values. The EFI SOT table does show Wednesday with some indication of the winds being higher than normal. Guidance is suggesting that there could be portions of the afternoon where Red Flag conditions get met. Both the NBM and LREF show about a 50-80% that they exceed 25 mph. Confidence as of right now is about a 30-40% for Red Flag Conditions being met.

Thursday looks to "cool" down from prior day to the mid to high 80s, with some localized low 90s. Winds look to remain from the north and shift to from the east towards the evening. Gusts look to be in the range of 25-40 mph. The peak time does look to be in the morning hours. There is some disagreement on the location of the winds from Guidance. The LREF currently favors east of KS Hwy 27 and the NBM favors west of KS Hwy 27. During the peak winds the RH values are in the 16-30% range. One thing to note is in the afternoon the values do begin to decrease to the lower teens for the majority of the CWA. In the morning there could be times where Elevated Fire weather could be present. GFDI is also in the 50+ range, but this is also dependent on where the peak gust occur.

The extended part of the forecast period. The weekend's upper pattern has a trough from the northern Rockies move into the region. With the trough there looks to be some embedded shortwaves that could bring up some precipitation chances. The trough does move through fairly quickly and is out of the region come Saturday morning and we transition to zonal flow. Sunday through Monday there is another trough that begins to move through that could bring other round of precip chances.

As for the highs Friday and Saturday look to be pretty similar. Values are in the mid to high 80s, with some locations hitting 90. There is one variable with the winds and our precipation chances. There is currently some Guidance disagreement with whether or not we will have a surface low, high, or we get sandwiches between both. This will ultimately decide if our winds are from the south or north and that will either bring moist or dry conditions. Currently PoPs are having east of KS Hwy 83 10-20% chance for Friday, and 20-30% for the whole CWA on Saturday.

Highs on Sunday and Monday, look to be pretty similar values are in the mid to high 80s, with some locations hitting 90. Winds and Gusts look to remain fairly calm for this period. As for precipitation chances there is about a 20-40% chance of exceeding 0.01". Given this is 6-7 days out, there is a fair amount that can change. With that being said, NCAR AI Convective Hazard Forecast does show some signal for severe weather being presently, to what extend time will tell.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1116 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

At KGLD...low clouds will be slow to dissipate with IFR ceiling possibly lingering through 21-23z this afternoon. Thunderstorms will move out of Colorado this evening, possibly impacting the terminal with brief gusty winds and visibility reductions in rain between 02-06Z. Overnight, low clouds and patchy fog may redevelop toward 12z with IFR conditions, dissipating by later in the morning.

At KMCK...thunderstorms have already developed and may impact the terminal with gusty winds and lowered visibility in rain through this afternoon. Low confidence that thunderstorms in Colorado will make it as far east as KMCK this evening, but there is a low probability that another round may impact the terminal. Overnight, low clouds and patchy fog may redevelop toward 12z with IFR conditions, dissipating by later in the morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ001-013-027. Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004- 014>016. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ252>254. NE...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ080-081.