textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect north of Interstate 70 this afternoon, when critically dry conditions and northwest wind gusts up to 35 mph will lead to rapid wildfire growth, should any fires develop.

- Expect overnight (Sun morning) lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's. Given that the entire area received a hard freeze this morning, a dry airmass / low humidity will likely preclude frost formation and sub-freezing temps are anticipated to be short in duration, frost/freeze headlines are unwarranted.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 120 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Synoptic Overview: A broad upper level trough over the central CONUS (today) will progress eastward across the MS River Valley tonight. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper level ridge over the Intermountain West (tonight) will build eastward across the Rockies (Sun) and High Plains (Sun night).

Today-Tonight: With broad cyclonic flow aloft lingering over the Central Plains, northwesterly low-level flow and near- neutral horizontal thermal advection, the cooler airmass deposited over the region yesterday will undergo relatively little modification today. At 18Z, 850 mb temperatures across the area ranged from +2C to 0C. Expect slightly below average highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's. For reference, average highs this time of year are ~64F. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect north of I-70, where very low RH (10-15%) is more likely to overlap with breezy NW winds (~15-25 mph w/gusts to 35 mph) during the afternoon hours. Expect overnight (Sun morning) lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's. Given that [1] the entire area received a hard freeze this morning, [2] that a light SW breeze may develop prior to sunrise, [3] that a dry airmass / low humidity will likely preclude frost formation and [4] that there is low confidence in the duration of sub-freezing temperatures overnight, frost/freeze headlines are unwarranted.

Sun-Sun night: Expect clear skies and a warming trend as the amplifying ridge over the Intermountain West builds east toward/over the Rockies. A broad lee trough developing in Colorado will extend eastward across northwest KS during the afternoon, when/where a local minimum in the MSLP to 850 mb height gradient will exist. Virtually all guidance indicates that breezy (~20-30 knot) southwesterly low-level flow on the southern and eastern periphery of the lee trough will thoroughly be confined south of the Goodland CWA, over southwest KS and the TX/OK Panhandles. In fact, throughout the day.. in the Goodland CWA.. forecast soundings indicate no more than 5-15 knot flow in the lowest ~11,000 ft AGL (up to ~600 mb). With little in the way of momentum available for transport via deep vertical mixing, expect light (5-15 mph) SW to variable winds. Light winds will preclude critical fire weather conditions. Expect overnight (Mon morning) lows in the lower-mid 30's.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 247 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Monday still looks to be dry and warm. An upper level ridge looks to still be moving through the region and exiting around Wednesday to Thursday. At the 850 mb level there looks to be a high pressure system that is located just to the south over Texas extending north over the region. For the temperatures the highs look to be in the mid to high 80s and lows in the lower to mid 30s. As for Relative Humidity (RH) there is a 50-95% chance of seeing RH values less than 15% for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado. The highest percentages are west of Hwy 385. As for wind gusts, guidance is still showing winds being in the lower teens. Guidance has also showed decrease in the percentage of exceeding 25 mph as we get closer to Monday. If we were to see 25 mph gusts is still would be Wichita, Greeley, Graham, Kit Carson and Yuma Counties in the County Warning Area (CWA). Moving on to Tuesday the pattern looks similar to Monday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and lows into the 40s. There is a possibility of reaching the 90s for a high for the eastern portion of the CWA. Guidance is showing about a 20- 50% of exceeding 90 degrees. As for the wind gust guidance has shown a bump in the winds for Tuesday afternoon into the night. The probability of exceeding 25 mph specifically for Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne Counties in CO go from 20-30% in the afternoon to 40- 60%. RH values still look to be lower teens for the majority of of CWA. One thing to note for both Monday and Tuesday is that we do get some relief with rebounding RH overnight as we cool back down in the overnight hours. Guidance shows there bing the probability of reaching 50% is around a 40-80% chance.

Wednesday and Thursday are still showing signs of seeing both fire and precipitation chances. The ridge will move out of our region and a trough will move in. There are still signs that there will be a dryline set up over the CWA with a low pressure system just to the north. Currently there are still some uncertainty on the location and timing of the system. There are still some disagreements with the dryline being set up over and the movement of it. For temperatures the highs look to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Wednesday. Thursday has a wider range from the low 70s to low 80s.

For the dryline, the moist side of dryline winds look to be out of the south. With dew points in the mid 40s to 50s. PoPs look to show 15-25 range with the greatest values in the southern Nebraska. Winds come from the south with speeds staying around 20-30 mph. The dry side of the line shows RH values in the lower teens with winds still staying from the south. Wind gusts look to be in the 30-50 mph range. The peak values for Wednesday look to be in the afternoon into the night. One scenario to look at is the fire weather concern. Especially for the dryline. Currently Guidance is showing the dryline being around Hwy 25 in Kansas. West of the dryline shows the potential for critical fire weather. For the eastern colorado counties there is a 70-90% chance of exceeding 25 mph and a 30-45% chance of exceeding 45 mph. Looking at the GDFI values the begin Wednesday morning around 30-50 the grow to up to 144.0 around 21z then decreasing around 3z Thursday. These conditions show signs of supporting explosive fire growth along with the wind gusts and RH vales support critical fire weather being met on Wednesday and Thursday. Once again there is a fair amount of uncertainty with the timing and location of the system since it is about five days out. However there is a signal of there being critical fire weather conditions in the CWA during this event. As the event moves closer there will still need to be more investigation on the timing and location.

Friday shows precipitation chances to return with the PoPs being in the 20-30s mainly north of I-70 and West of KS Hwy 27. For temperatures the highs look to be in the 60s and lows in the 30s- 40s. Wind gusts look to be in the 20-40 mph range. Saturday looks very similar to Friday with highs in the 60s with lows in the low 30s. Winds look to be weaker with gust peaking around 20-30 mph. PoPs also show some signs of there being precip with values staying in the 20-35 range for majority of the CWA. Given this is 6-7 days out there is still uncertainty but still good to see signs of seeing moisture for the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 522 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both sites with either clear skies or a few clouds above 10000ft. Winds are forecast to lower to 10 kts or less from the southwest between 00-02Z and remain there through much of the period. There is a chance for winds around 200-400ft to reach 30 kts after 09Z, so be alert for low level wind shear if flying tonight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.