textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week.

- Storm and shower chances continue through Friday.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A few showers and storms continue to slowly push east through the area within a small MCS. Given recent trends, the precipitation should continue to weaken and end by about 3-4 am. The rest of the early morning hours is then forecast to see mostly cloudy skies with temperatures lowering into the 60s.

During the daytime hours, zonal flow is forecast over the area, leading to similar temperatures in the 90s. Winds are forecast to be a bit lighter as the center of the surface low drifts through the area. Speeds are forecast to be around 5 to 15 mph with winds varying in direction. Mostly sunny skies are forecast with the cloud cover early in the morning forecast to dissipate and push east.

Late in the afternoon around 4-6pm, another round of storms that is forecast to develop along the higher terrain just west of the area is expected to push into Eastern Colorado. The majority of solutions have the surface low remaining in the area and have a semi solid line develop and move through the entire area from west to east as an upper shortwave pushes through the Plains. However, there still remains the NAM 3km and some ECMWF Ensemble members that suggest the low will sag further south and help drag the forcing a bit further south. In this scenario, storms would likely move south/southeast and be more confined to along and south of I-70. Currently, the split looks to be about 75/25, so the current forecast reflects the whole area seeing storms.

The storms are forecast to be severe at times, mainly with wind gusts of 60-75 mph with either lines or clusters of storms. This would pose a concern for blowing dust, with a wall of dust possible if a clean severe outflow can develop. The cluster and linear storm modes should keep hail a bit on the smaller side around 0.5-1.25". The MUCAPE of 500-2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear of 30-40 kts also supports marginally severe hail. There could maybe be an instance of 2 inch hail if a cell can persist within the clusters or form ahead of the main lines and stay organized. The tornado threat looks to be on the low side with LCLs generally above 1000 meters, low level shear around 5 kts and 0-3km shear around 15 kts. Best chance would be with any truly linear segment orientated north to south. The flooding threat continues to also remain low with storms forecast to progress fairly steadily. Flooding could develop if multiple clusters produce outflows that help storms train or stall over an area.

Most of the storm activity looks to again end around 3am for the area. Cloud cover should linger, especially for eastern portions of the area. This could lead to temperatures staying in the 70s for those under cloud cover. Otherwise, temperatures should drop into the 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 144 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

***Thursday/Friday***

Upper-level flow looks to be approximately zonal Thursday and Friday. A shortwave trough making its way across the Rocky Mountains would support a surface low in Colorado during the afternoon and evening Thursday. Southeasterly winds may be allowed to develop ahead of the surface low during the afternoon and evening hours, allowing high temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thunderstorms are possible across a convergence zone centered approximately in Eastern Colorado. LREF and NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance both suggest at least a 60% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Thursday across this zone. Surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg seem likely as well according to LREF guidance. The severe potential with these storms will depend on whether stronger winds develop in the mid and upper levels. GFS and EC guidance appears consistent that upper-level winds may only support marginal severe thunderstorms, with most soundings showing 35 kts or less of 0-6 km shear. However, if 75th percentile or better 0-500 mb shear can be experienced (35 kts or greater), some of these storms may be allowed to produce severe hail and wind. Confidence in severe thunderstorms developing Thursday is around 5-10% at this time.

The shortwave trough may stick around into Friday. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Thunderstorms are possible again, though appear to be less likely than Thursday. NBM guidance shows the best chances for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation on Friday across portions of West- Central Kansas, but is still only 45% or less. Similar CAPE values to Thursday are in play across this zone, though vertical wind shear may be even weaker. Confidence in severe weather occurring Friday is 5% or less.

***Saturday-Tuesday***

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the remainder of the forecast will be dominated by broad upper-level ridging overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s. Drying across the forecast area may help prevent heat index values from rising to the level of a Heat Advisory as well. Precipitation appears unlikely Saturday through Tuesday, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows probabilities around 10% or less across the forecast region to see greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at both terminals.

At KGLD, thunderstorms are expected to transition to rain within the first hour. Rain is expected to end around 8Z at KGLD. For both terminals, low level wind shear is expected through at least 11Z and potentially last through 13-14Z. Then winds are forecast to become lighter around 5-10 knots. For KGLD, winds are forecast to veer through the day from out of the south to out of the northwest to out of the east. For KMCK, winds are forecast to vary between out of the south and out of the east. There is a chance for thunderstorms from 0Z to the end of the period. These could be severe.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.