textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Another conditional threat for strong to severe storms this afternoon. Should storms develop large hail and damaging winds would be the main concerns. Confidence in storms is around 10-15%.

- Storm chances continue daily the next few days.

- Warming back into 100s over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 838 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The dense Fog Advisory has been canceled early as visibilities are increasing throughout the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Northwest mid level flow remains in place across the area as a surface trough is in place just west of the CWA. A dryline has retreated through the forecast area and has raided dew points back into the 60s across nearly the entire area. Another round of fog and perhaps dense fog is forecast for the night with light winds under 10 mph, clear skies and low dew point depressions. Some minor moisture advection is forecast to occur across Red Willow, Hitchcock, Decatur, Norton and Graham counties which appears to be the more favorable area for fog and even even dense fog with surface to 1km mixing ratio differences the highest. Further west there is potential for dense fog as well but currently think that this will be more of a patchy dense fog as well as the mixing ratio differences are high. Trends through the night will need to monitored another potential Dense Fog Advisory.

Friday, any morning fog and stratus is forecast to end by mid to late morning Friday. High pressure over the four corners is forecast to expand over the area as our warming trend continues with high temperatures forecast to warm into the mid to upper 90s across the entire area. If stratus could hold on a little longer across eastern portions of the area then temperatures may be around 5-8 degrees lower than currently forecast.

During the afternoon, another subtle shortwave is forecast to move through the area and may be enough to convect some showers and storms during the afternoon hours. 00Z HREF and REFS show two potential areas for development. The first is across what appears to be a theta boundary from roughly Cheyenne (KS) to Norton county and a second across eastern Colorado towards the state line. 00Z CAM outputs have backed off on convecting due to what appears to be a little cooler on the temperatures, perhaps given lingering stratus? Convective temperatures are in the upper 90s and soundings do indicate a stout cap at around 700mb. MPAS guidance continues to convect storms and are closer to said convective temperatures. Should storms form severe weather would be possible with large hail up to 2 inches and damaging winds around 60 mph the main concerns. Straight line hodographs are also seen as well which suggests that storms would split. If storms were to produce outflow then blowing dust would also become a concern as well due to hot and dry conditions that will be in place as top soil moisture continues to dry out. Confidence in storms forming is only around 15-20% at this time and similar to Thursday appears to be another marginal event. Any storms that do form would wane as the sunsets and we lose diurnal heating.

Friday night, am also seeing yet another potential for fog development overnight as a warm front lifts to the north. Dense fog is again a possibility due to high surface to 1km mixing ratio differences. Currently do have some questions on the overall coverage of the potential fog and the duration of it as winds may be a bit too high for fog to fully form as it may be all stratus, so will currently opt to leave it out of the forecast for now.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Saturday, the region is forecast to be under a weak upper-level flow continuing the warming trend. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s to 100s. There is a chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms due to embedded shortwave passages and a surface low forecast to develop over the Tri-State area. Probability of Precipation (PoPs) are around 20%. If storms are able to form, large hail and strong winds are the primary hazards.

Beginning Sunday, we transition to more of a zonal upper-level flow with a ridge building west of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast to remain unseasonably warm for the county warning area (CWA) through Tuesday with highs in the 90s to 100s. A weak cold front moving through Tuesday night will bring modest cooling, but high temperatures are still forecast in the 90s for Wednesday and Thursday.

Starting Monday evening through at least Wednesday evening, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight due to embedded shortwave passages. Late Wednesday, we begin to transition to more of a northwest upper-level flow with increased upper-level support from a jet streak overhead. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast period. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the late evenings and overnight hours Wednesday and Thursday with PoPs around 50-70%.

Despite the unseasonably warm temperatures, fire weather concerns are minimal for the forecast period. Relative humidity (RH) values for the western CWA are forecast in the low teens to 20s for Saturday through Monday. Peak wind gusts are forecast to be around 25 mph, but highest wind gusts do not coincide with lowest RH values of the day. Beginning Monday afternoon, winds will primarily be from the east advecting additional moisture into the Tri-State area allowing minimum RH values to gradually recover into the 20s to 30s after Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to dominate the period for KMCK and KGLD. Lingering stratus is burning off near KMCK, but is scattered enough to not be an impact. There is another chance of fog and stratus tonight, mainly impacting KMCK. Winds will become east-southeasterly this afternoon and remain that way until overnight. Overnight, winds will gain more of a southerly component around sunrise and then pick up. This afternoon, we are expecting some occasional gusts at both sites in the 20-25 kts range, which will likely return tomorrow morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.