textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning is in effect today with above average temperatures, dry conditions and breezy S to SW winds. Fires will grow and spread quickly.

- Record high temperatures are possible on Sunday and Monday.

- Low potential for active weather early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1253 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Current observations have high pressure situated across the Plains with lower pressure developing along the Front Range. This is slowly beginning to increase the winds with speeds around 15-20 mph observed for some locales along the Palmer Divide. The winds are forecast to increase across the area during the morning hours as the high pressure moves east and the low deepens and expands near the Front Range. Speeds are forecast to be 15-30 mph for most of the area by sunrise with gusts generally between 30-45 mph. There could be a few gusts that hit 50-60 mph as the inversion mixes out with the low level jet forecast to be 45 to 50 kts. The winds are then forecast to lighten from west to east in the afternoon as the high pressure shifts further away and the center of the low nears the area. Even with the winds lightening, Red Flag conditions should still occur around the noon hour in the west and linger through the afternoon in the east. The dry conditions will remain in place through the day with mostly sunny skies. Highs for counties along the Colorado border are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s while those to the east that are closer to the colder air mass will likely only warm to around 70.

This evening and into tonight, the winds are forecast to lighten as the center of the low moves over the area. Cloud cover is also forecast to increase as higher level moisture moves over in the northwest flow. Temperatures should cool into the 40s, with maybe a few 30s for those who stay clear for most of the night.

Sunday, the area is forecast to be under ridging/northwest flow aloft with a broad low pressure system at the surface. This is forecast to lead to mostly sunny and warm with high temperatures in the 80s. Locales in the east may be able to reach 90. This could allow for some more record temperatures to fall. While hot and dry, critical fire weather conditions look fairly unlikely with the light winds forecast for the area. Ensembles don't show too much variability, so it is unlikely that the low would shift enough to increase the fire chances.

Monday, the warm and dry conditions continue with the upper ridge axis more over the Plains. With this, temperatures are forecast to be a bit hotter with highs in the 80s in the west and 90s in the east. Similar to Sunday, these temperatures may be able to break records. Relative humidity is forecast to drop into the single digits and teens with no moisture advection. The main inhibitor for critical fire weather conditions will again be the winds. Right now, the speeds are forecast to be around 10 mph with gusts in the 20-25 mph range. That being said, ensemble 500mb spread charts suggest that the next upper trough may push through the Plains faster than currently forecast. In this case, the winds may be stronger as the center of the low could then shift off the area during the afternoon hours with stronger winds on the back side. Given how far north the upper trough is forecast to be, the wind gusts would probably max out at 35-40 mph. But that would be more than enough for critical fire weather conditions and high fire danger.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 210 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A progressive upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS this period with embedded shortwave troughs bringing occasional chances for precipitation and breezy to windy conditions. Models continue to trend colder on Tuesday behind a cold front with breezy north to northeast winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. Precipitation type will be rain during the day but could see a transition to snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as temperatures drop into the 20s. Snow amounts have crept up just a tad from yesterday, but probabilities of 1" or more are still hovering at around 10%. First of two somewhat stronger disturbances moves through on Wednesday with scattered showery precipitation chances continuing. Southeast winds will gust 35 to 45 mph by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures warm into the 50s so any morning mixed precipitation will go back to rain. Final, and perhaps strongest, disturbance will come through Thursday night/Friday with an upper low developing in the northern plains. However, models are not in particularly good agreement with this system in regards to timing and track and there is a large spread in temperatures and corresponding precipitation types. However, breezy to windy conditions appear to continue for both days with gusts up to 55 mph from the south on Thursday turning to the north on Friday behind a potentially strong cold front.

Temperature trends for the period will be near normal on Tuesday and Wednesday (50s), then above normal on Thursday and Friday (60s), though confidence is somewhat lower in the latter part of the period. Lows will generally be in the 20s and 30s with the coldest occurring Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 451 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions continue with clouds either above 8000ft or clear skies. The progression of the winds was slower than earlier forecast, but recent observations in Eastern Colorado have shown winds increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. This is expected at both terminals within the next hour or two, with the potential still for a few hours of low level wind shear. Winds are forecast to stay above 20 kts until about 00-01Z, though KGLD may lower by 21Z. Once tonights inversion sets up, winds should lower to 12 kts or less and slowly shift to out of the west. Be alert for the possibility of more low level wind shear after 03Z, especially for KMCK.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1253 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Record high temperatures are possible Sunday and Monday.

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Sunday, March 29th:

Goodland, KS - Record is 88 (1943), forecast is 87.

Hill City, KS - Record is 91 (1943), forecast is 88.

McCook, NE - Record is 92 (1943), forecast is 88.

Burlington, CO - Record is 86 (2021), forecast is 85.

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Monday, March 30th:

Goodland, KS - Record is 88 (2010), forecast is 89.

Hill City, KS - Record is 93 (1943), forecast is 93.

McCook, NE - Record is 93 (1943), forecast is 92.

Burlington, CO - Record is 87 (2010), forecast is 87.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.