textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered storm chances through mid week. A few severe storms will be possible in the afternoon and early evening with large hail and damaging winds.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures today, then near to slightly below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1047 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Late evening showers and storms have been respecting the CWA boundary and weakening, largely leaving the area dry. This is forecast to continue through the night, but there is a 20% chance of a storms or two with a small surface low to the northwest and continued weak low level moisture advection. Our severe weather threat is likely done for the night. Temperatures should cool into the 60s and 70s with a mix of clouds and clear skies.

Today, the upper trough over the Great Lakes region is forecast to shift south and east. This should finish pulling the low pressure system and associated boundary through the area during the day. The current forecast as the system either reaching Highway 40 or clearing the area to the south around the mid-afternoon. If the system does speed up, the colder air should lag behind with most of the area warming into the 90s. Low 100s are possible closer to Central Kansas. Winds should also be shifting from out of the south, to out of the north at 10-15 mph through the day. Skies should also be sunny for most of the day.

Getting into the afternoon and evening hours, cloud cover is forecast to slowly increase as storms try and fire up. The first batch of storms only has a 10-20% chance of occurring and would fire along the front/low around 2-6pm MT. This would favor locales near Highway 40. These storms would have a chance to produce large hail with instability around 1500-3000 J/kg and effective shear around 30- 40 kts in a favorable environment. The main inhibitors are that either the storms may be capped behind the boundary, or the air ahead will be too warm and dry which would lower instability significantly. But as mentioned above, strong storms are possible if they can find the sweet spot along the surface system. Otherwise, the second round is forecast to occur more in the evening and early overnight hours as storms fire up along the higher terrain to the west. With support from level level easterly upslope flow and a potential shortwave in the upper flow, storms could fire up in multiple batches and push east. The multiple batches and late start time are forecast to keep the severe threat on the low side, with large hail and wind gusts around 60-70 mph in the stronger storms. Storms if they form may linger all night, which may keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s with the additional cloud cover.

Wednesday, temperatures are forecast to be a bit cooler on the back side of the surface low. Highs are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s underneath partly cloudy skies. Winds will likely be on the lighter side around 5-10 mph. The afternoon and evening hours bring another chance for storms and severe weather, but the chances remain low. Between the higher surface pressure and amplifying of the ridge to the west, the overall forcing is a bit on the weaker side. This could change if a strong enough wave can move through the northwest flow, in which case a few storms capable of producing large hail and wind gusts of 60-70 mph is possible. Western and norther portions are currently favored. Overnight, lows may be able to reach the upper 50s if the storms don't linger and skies clear.

Thursday, there is not much change in the pattern with the upper ridge to the west, keeping the area under northwest flow. Near the surface, some lower surface pressure is forecast to develop north of the area and switch our winds to out of the south. With the warm air advection, temperatures should be warmer in the 90s. For the afternoon and evening hours, another low chance for storms and severe weather is possible with forcing likely on the weak side. Still, should a few storms form, large hail would be a concern with 0-6km shear forecast to be a bit higher around 40-45kts. Thursday night would probably see storms clear the area or dissipate fairly early in the night. Winds are forecast to lighten with temperatures lingering in the 60s and 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 201 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

GEFS, EC, and LREF ensembles support a 500-mb high moving in overhead beginning Friday morning, and remaining through the end of the forecast period. Southerly flow near the surface is favored underneath the ridge. The exception to this would be if shortwave troughs coming over the Rockies could develop a surface low over or just to the south of the forecast region, favoring northerly surface flow. Otherwise, hot conditions supported by the southerly flow and solar heating are expected for the full duration of the long term period, with highs forecast in the 90s Friday through Monday.

Dry conditions are also forecast in the long term due to the higher temperatures. Relative humidities (RH) look to be in the low to mid 20s across portions of East-Central Colorado Friday through Monday. It is possible that RH values could drop even further into the teens across portions of the forecast region, with some areas showing as high as a 40% chance of doing so between Friday and Sunday according to LREF guidance. The broadest area covered by these elevated probabilities is on Sunday along and south of I-70, where nearly all areas have a 1 in 3 chance or higher of RH values dropping into the teens. These lower RH values would be most probable if a shortwave trough could traverse areas north and east of the forecast area along the leading edge of the upper-level high. This could support southwesterly to westerly flow developing across the forecast area, and thus, promote even higher temperatures and drier conditions with RH in the teens. Even so, fire weather is not expected during this period, as wind gusts are forecast to remain below 25 mph in areas of the lowest RH values.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the long term period, however NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows a 25% chance or less across the forecast region that greater than 0.1 inches of rain will be experienced from Friday to Sunday. These probabilities increase a little bit across Eastern Colorado Monday, where there is up to a 45% chance. If storms are able to develop, the most likely area where they would become severe is across Red Willow County in Nebraska, and Decatur, Norton, and Graham Counties in Kansas. LREF guidance is suggestive of a 40% chance or higher across this zone through the long term period that sfc-500mb wind shear would exceed 30 kts. Even so, uncertainty regarding whether storms would form in addition to their coverage leaves confidence in severe storms occurring less than 5% Friday through Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1047 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. There is the possibility for some low level wind shear with winds around 500ft forecast to be 40kts between 08-13Z. However, the jet is forecast to be passing through in about 2-3 hours as the next system nears the area, limiting how long low level wind shear is present. Winds at the surface should roughly be from the south at 10kts, then switching to out of the north/northeast around 16-19Z as a front/low moves through the area. Finally, there may be storms at either terminal after 00Z, but more likely after 04Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.