textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected Today and possible again tomorrow. Fire danger will remain high through the week.

- Breezy conditions expected and patchy blowing dust possible Tuesday midday and afternoon.

- Very warm to even hot temperatures possible late week into the early weekend. Daily record highs and even monthly record highs may be possible.

- Strong cold front will bring an end to very warm temperatures over the weekend. Strong winds and blowing dust may accompany this front.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 217 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Early this morning, lows look to largely remain in the 20s with pockets cooling into the upper teens. We are seeing some virga showers moving across the eastern half of the CWA. These will likely be gone by sunrise.

Today, is forecast to warm into the 70s. A front from the northwest in the midday poses a risk for patchy blowing dust. Winds with and behind the front are forecast to gust around 30 kts from the northwest. REFS probabilities for greater than 30 MPH are above 50% for locations along and north of U.S. 24. For gusts of 35 MPH, probabilities greater than 35% largely remain north of U.S. 34. Lapse rates from GFS, NAM, RAP, and SREF all show 0-2 km lapse rates are high, supporting lofting. All but the RAP and GFS after 21Z show a capping layer at 2-2.5 km, increasing confidence in blowing dust reducing visibilities. As it stands, there is a 10% chance of less than 1 mile visibility in blowing dust along and north of U.S. 24, increasing to 30% along and north of U.S. 34. Most likely timing for blowing dust will be between 18-0Z. If dust occurs, plumes are most likely, most concentrated near source regions, such as bare fields, with a less than 2% chance of a haboob.

Dew points are already slowing climb as of 6Z and will likely continue to climb for the rest of the day. The HREF minimum RH does show values dropping into the low teens across portions of the area, but most guidance shows dew points reaching the 30s by 18Z, keeping RH values closer to around 20%. However, with the preceding dry conditions and gusty winds, fuels are already dry and ready to burn. The Red Flag Warning has been slightly expanded and now includes all of southwestern Nebraska.

Overnight tonight, even though a front from the north will have moved through, with the increased dew points, temperatures are forecast to remain in the 30s. No notable precipitation is expected in the short-term as a large high pressure system works in from the western CONUS.

Tomorrow, we don't have a front moving through and no major features leading to overly strong winds. However, temperatures are forecast to warm into the low to mid 80s. This will allow us to mix into the 500-700 mb range, mixing down some 25 kts gusts. RH values in the heat of the day will drop into the low to mid teens. The winds and dry conditions have a 50-70% chance of creating prolonged critical fire weather conditions, prompting the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. Most likely area to see Red Flag criteria will be eastern Colorado. Overnight tomorrow, the pattern continues and westerly winds will keep temperatures around 40.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 227 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The end of the work week and beginning of the weekend are forecast to have the area remain mostly under the influence of an upper level high positioned over the Southwestern United States. With this, the forecast continues to call for high temperatures in the 80s and 90s through Saturday. With the dry air mass remaining in place, relative humidity is forecast to drop into the teens each day and no precipitation is currently forecast. While the low relative humidity does raise some concern for critical fire weather conditions, surface winds are forecast to remain on the lighter side for Thursday and Friday with most systems being well to the northeast and causing little changes in the pressure gradient. The bigger concerns is on Saturday as an upper trough is forecast to push into the Plains and flatten the upper high. If this happens, a low pressure system should push through the area Saturday. If it is later in the day, there would be a risk for critical fire weather conditions with gusts around or above 35 mph and a potential for blowing dust. The blowing dust risk is currently around 10% or less as the low pressure system is forecast to be fairly broad, which may keep winds just a bit too low for widespread blowing dust. The main concern is if the front is fairly strong and the environment is capped ahead of it, there could be a wall of dust.

Sunday and into the beginning of the next week is forecast to start cooler in the wake of the front/low on Saturday. There is still some variability on how much cooler due to timing differences (some have the system passing early Sunday instead of Saturday), but highs are currently forecast to be in the 60s and 70s. Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Sunday depending on how much dry air moves in behind the front. Otherwise, cooler temperatures and forecast moisture recovery should help lower the fire danger to start the next work week. That could be short lived though as guidance suggests another system could move through Tue/Wed. If so, we would have the chance for another critical fire day if we warm up enough ahead of it. We could also have a chance for severe weather if we can get enough moisture recovery ahead of the advancing low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 418 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at KGLD and KMCK. Winds will become northwesterly behind a front this morning, and bring in gusts in the 20-30 kts range, but occasional gusts around 35 kts are possible. KMCK also has a 20-30% chance of seeing patchy blowing dust between 19-00Z. Winds will weaken overnight, but remain northwesterly.

CLIMATE

Issued at 227 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A strong signal for very warm to hot temperatures is present for later in the week and into the start of the weekend. Some daily record highs and even monthly March record highs are in jeopardy of falling during this period.

Record high temperatures Friday March 20th

Goodland: Record high 90 in 1907.... current forecast 86.

McCook: Record high 85 in 1916 and 1997.... current forecast 86.

Hill City: Record high 88 in 1916... current forecast 87.

Burlington: Record high 87 in 1907.... current forecast 86. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy Saturday March 21st

Goodland: Record high 84 in 1907 and 2011.... current forecast 88.

McCook: Record high 89 in 1910.... current forecast 91.

Hill City: Record high 93 in 1907... current forecast 91.

Burlington: Record high 84 in 2011.... current forecast 88. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Monthly (March) Record Highs:

Goodland: 90 degrees March 20th, 1907

McCook: 93 degrees March 16th, 2015

Burlington: 93 degrees March 19th, 1921

Hill City: 94 degrees March 16th, 2015

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ001. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for KSZ001-002-013. CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ252-253. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NEZ079>081.