textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures expected through the remainder of the work week.

- Dense fog possible over portions of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska Thursday morning.

- Breezy to strong south winds may lead to hazardous travel conditions on Friday.

- Precipitation chances return over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 358 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Overview: SW flow aloft over the central Rockies and adjoining High Plains will back to the SSW and strengthen as a broad upper level ridge steadily amplifies over the central CONUS and an upper level low along the Pacific Coast slowly progresses E-ENE into the Intermountain West. In the lower levels, rich moisture from the TX Gulf Coast will continue to advance northward into the Southern and Central Plains via persistent southerly flow on the eastern periphery of a diurnally waxing/waning surface trough in the lee of the central-southern Rockies.

Tonight-Thu Morning: Expect mostly clear skies with overnight (Thu morning) lows in the upper 40's to lower 50's. Current and recent runs of the HRRR continue to suggest that dense fog may develop over portions of the area Thu morning, mainly in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska between ~10-15Z (4-9 am MDT), and that development could be more widespread compared to previous mornings. Low confidence in fog coverage.

Thursday: Similar to today, albeit slightly warmer (highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's) and becoming breezy with south winds at 15-25 mph.

Thu night: Southerly flow will strengthen over the region Thu evening into Fri morning as the aforementioned upper low progresses east into the Intermountain West and a more pronounced 850 mb trough develops in the lee of the Rockies. With breezy south winds and increasing upper level cloud cover, expect warmer overnight (Fri morning) lows in the mid 50's to lower 60's.

Friday: Expect highs ranging from the upper 70's to mid 80's, depending on cloud cover. An absence of forcing in the lee of the central Rockies will likely preclude any chance for measurable precipitation in the Goodland CWA, despite an atypically moist airmass. Further tightening of the MSLP to 850 mb height gradient on the eastern periphery of a developing lee cyclone in CO will lead to breezy/strong south winds across the majority of the area. 18Z GFS forecast soundings indicate ~30-40 knot low-level flow will reside within and throughout a relatively shallow boundary layer (surface to 3-6 KFT AGL), suggesting sustained winds ~25-40 mph and gusts up to ~50 mph, though.. thick upper level cloud cover emanating from precipitation over the southern Rockies could adversely affect diurnal heating/mixing over portions of the area, leading to cooler temperatures, shallower mixing and relatively weaker winds.

Dust: Breezy to strong south winds and recent dry conditions may lead to areas of blowing dust, producing haze and brief, localized reductions in visibility in the usual/typically prone areas.

Fire Weather: Breezy/strong S-SSW winds will inherently lead to an increased risk for adverse fire behavior. Mitigating factors include a continued northward influx of Gulf moisture into the Central Plains is expected to maintain minimum RH readings ~30-45% in KS-NE and 25-35% in eastern CO (at worst, 20-25% in far western Yuma/Kit Carson counties) and thick upper level cloud cover emanating from scattered to widespread upstream precip over the southern Rockies, which may impact diurnal heating/mixing, leading to cooler temps, higher humidity and relatively weaker winds.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Over the weekend, the upper-level pattern continues to be southwesterly as the trough slowly moves to the northeast from the Four Corners region and into the southern Rockies. Toward the surface, low- to mid-level moisture is being fed into the area from the south as return flow from a high pressure system to the east. This will likely lead to a cold front moving into the area midday Saturday and allow for prolonged showers Sunday. With the cold front moving in, weak and low-topped thunderstorms are possible as CAPE is still the main driving force with values being above 300 J/kg. If showers does occur, it is likely favored to the east and over the K-25 corridor on Saturday and south of I-70 on Sunday. While confidence for showers on both days remain high (75%), there is low confidence (20-25%) for thunderstorms to occur before turning into showers on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to drop back into seasonal ranges being in the 60s and 50s.

Starting next week, the trough is forecast to move north of the area midday Monday. For the remainder of the period, the pattern becomes unclear as guidance spread starts to show two possible scenarios of what could happen. The first scenario could be that zonal flow starts to form over the area keeping temperatures in the 50s. The secondary scenario is a secondary trough to the north that could push a cold front into the area and potentially drop temperatures further and into the 40s. However,with the unclear change in the pattern, overnight showers from Sunday and into Monday are still slightly possible as the trough moves through and keeping temperatures for each day being in the 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 400 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

GLD: A period of fog is possible at the Goodland terminal an hour or two on either side of sunrise Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to cirrus at or above 10,000 ft AGL. Light and variable winds will prevail through tonight. Winds will become southerly (SSE or S) and increase to 12-16 knots during the late morning and early afternoon.

MCK: Persistence suggests that dense fog will affect the McCook terminal Thu morning, similar to today and yesterday, mainly in the ~10-15Z time frame. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail, with ceilings at or above 10,000 ft AGL. Light and variable winds will persist through tonight. Winds will become southerly (SSE or S) and increase to 10-15 knots during the late morning and early afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.