textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front moves through today with cooler temperatures in the east. Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Areas of fog Friday morning, especially in the Kansas and Colorado border area.

- Light rain chances Saturday night and Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Backdoor cold front has been slower than depicted by the models, with associated low clouds and fog just entering far northeast Nebraska as of 07z. On that pace, it will not arrive in southwest Nebraska until around 15-18z, and by then the low clouds and fog will be dissipating. So not expecting any impacts this morning. The front will continue to makes its way west through the forecast area this afternoon with winds shifting to the east. This evening, models show low clouds and fog developing by around 06z and expanding in coverage overnight. By 12z, a fairly expansive area of fog may develop, centered near the Colorado and Kansas border area in a north to south orientation. It will slowly burn off Friday morning. Breezy southeast winds Friday afternoon will maintain the cool and moist airmass. The front will banked against the Front Range Friday night, which is where the low clouds and fog are most likely to develop. Breezy southeast winds continue on Saturday with gusts up to 40 mph possible in the Kansas/Colorado border area where pressure gradient is maximized. Precipitation will begin to develop Saturday afternoon in southeast Colorado as an upper shortwave trough emerges from the southern Rockies. Models show a closed low developing Saturday night near Springfield, Colorado, with light precipitation spreading into the area from the south. Forecast low temperatures are in the low to mid 30s, with high probabilities that precipitation type will be rain and not snow. Mean precipitation amounts through 12z Sunday are up to a tenth of an inch south of Interstate 70 and less than a tenth of an inch north, while 10th percentiles show little to no measurable precipitation.

Temperatures today will be near normal in the east to slightly above normal in the west ahead of the front. Temperatures continue to cool Friday and Saturday, with near to slightly below normal on Friday and below normal on Saturday, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 308 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Ensemble guidance continues to lock onto a upper-level low forming over the Central Plains early Sunday associated with a negatively tilted trough overhead and southeast winds, both aloft and at the surface. Medium confidence (50-60%) exists of a surface low pressure system south of the CWA (County Warning Area) on Sunday, but no front is expected. Meanwhile, a ridge starts to build in over the Mountain West which is likely to propagate across our area Monday through Wednesday. Guidance shows winds aloft from the northwest which become southwesterly as said ridge moves through. Model output starts to become a little more fuzzy late Wednesday but most ensembles are picking up another negatively tilted trough with a strong upper-level jet streak. This would theoretically bring stronger surface winds as early as Tuesday, lasting through Wednesday night. Guidance projects moisture advection to take place early Sunday with dew points forecast in the low to mid 40s.

Rain will be possible on Sunday morning as the low moves to the south of our CWA. PoPs are currently sitting around 20-40% through the afternoon hours. QPF is currently forecast somewhere in the range of 0.01 to 0.1 so at the very least some accumulating rainfall is probable. Chances for rain decrease substantially heading into Monday as that ridge takes control. 5% or less PoPs are expected through Tuesday. Rainfall chances present Wednesday as well with the aforementioned second trough. Confidence on any rain occurring a week from now is on the lower side at the moment with PoPs in the 15-25% range. Nevertheless, will need to be monitored going into the weekend as ensembles sort out any uncertainties with this trough. Moving onto temperatures for our region, a warming trend is expected heading into next week as the ridge builds upon the Central CONUS. Highs in the mid to upper 40s should increase to the upper 50s/low 60s by Wednesday. Morning lows are anticipated to sit around freezing on Monday and Tuesday then increase a bit into the 35-42 range on Wednesday.

Fire weather should not be a concern through early next week. Despite a recent dry spell, coupled with stronger stronger surface winds forecasted for the Monday-Wednesday timeframe, Relative Humidities (RHs) are not likely to be low. It should be on the wetter side with a system pulling in moisture from the southeast. RHs in the range of 50-80% during peak heating will be optimal for keeping fire weather at bay. Wednesday will likely be the driest day as temperatures warm and dewpoints remain stagnant but RHs shouldn't dip below 40%. As mentioned above, surface winds pick up through the middle of next week as a sustained 15-25 mph is forecasted. Gusts may reach 40 mph in some areas of eastern Colorado.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 407 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR expected to prevail through this evening at both KGLD and KMCK with light winds and mostly clear skies. Overnight and into Friday morning, patchy fog may develop near KGLD along with some mid level clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.