textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- The Flood Watch remains in effect through this afternoon. Additional heavy rain is possible for areas generally south of Interstate 70 in Colorado and Kansas which could result in flash flooding over saturated soils.

- Dry on Friday with windy conditions Friday afternoon in northeast Colorado where southerly winds may gust up to 45 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Precipitation will continue to wrap around the upper low centered over southeast Colorado through the overnight hours. It will be mostly rain, but will see a few thunderstorms through about 09z before the MUCAPE diminishes. Some flooding will be possible generally south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 83 in Kansas and Colorado through about 18z, where 3-hr QPF HREF forecasts show that at least 1" of rain is likely as well as a low probability, around 10%, of 3". Some redevelopment is also possible later this morning after 15z and into the early afternoon as the upper low moves into southern Kansas and wraparound precipitation bands increase in coverage. This would be for the general area south of Highway 24 in northwest Kansas. 3-hr probabilities for 1" and 3" amounts are about the same as earlier, suggesting flash flooding will be possible, especially considering soils are saturated in many locations. For these reasons, not planning any changes to the Flood Watch at this time, though confidence is lower north of Interstate 70 and any flooding there would likely be isolated. Instability and shear will both be very weak and not expecting any severe storms. Rain is expected to move south and out of the area by 00Z this afternoon.

On Friday, an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will nudge into the area from the west with rising heights. This will result in mostly sunny and dry conditions. Return flow at the surface will bring breezy to windy southerly winds by the afternoon into Colorado and areas north of Interstate 70. Gusts in northeast Colorado may approach 40-45 mph by late in the afternoon before diminishing in the early evening.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and tomorrow, though some modest warming will occur in northeast Colorado on Friday. Highs will generally be in the 60s both days, with some lower 70s possible on Friday in Colorado.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Overall, the upper level synoptic pattern has not changed significantly. The upper level flow across the Tri-State area remains mainly from the west to northwest from Saturday until around Tuesday. During this period, the jet stream remains to the north near the US/Canada border as various upper level troughs move along the border. Model guidance remains in agreement showing an upper level ridge positioned near the Four Corners region. Compared to yesterday, the Canadian-NH, ECMWF, and GFS have aligned in showing a shortwave trough moving through the area on Tuesday. While models agree on the trough's presence in the region, its exact strength and size remain somewhat uncertain. Currently, Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) for Tuesday has slightly increased to 5-15%. If model trends continue, the trough could further increase Tuesday's precipitation chance depending on its intensity.

Regarding high temperatures for the week, values across the Tri- State region are expected to remain under 80 degrees for the majority of the period. The warmest days are forecast to be Saturday and Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 80s. On both days, these warmer temperatures will primarily be focused in the northwestern portions of the County Warning Area (CWA). Overall, precipitation chances remain quite low from Saturday through Wednesday of next week, with Pops generally around 5-10% each day. Tuesday continues to feature the "highest" potential, with PoPs of 5-15% dependent on the upper level trough strength.

Wind continues to be somewhat of a concern for Monday, with sustained winds currently forecast at 15-25 mph and gusts of 35-45 mph. Guidance indicates that an 850 mb jet streak will likely set up over the region. Some uncertainty remains regarding the location of the highest winds speeds. The LREF favors the majority of the CWA seeing gusts up to 35 mph, while the NBM has the highest gusts up to 45 mph across the northern and western parts of the CWA. Both models do agree on having around a 5-10% probability of gusts exceeding 50 mph across the Colorado counties. At this time, fire weather concerns remain low, as relative humidity values are expected to stay above 25% each day and recent precipitation will likely leave soil moisture fairly saturated.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the overnight and early morning hours before ending. KGLD stands about a 20% chance to see a thunderstorm overnight, with lower chances at KMCK. Ceilings will be slow to improve and mainly MVFR overnight, though a heavier passing shower may briefly lower them to IFR at either location. Expecting a return to VFR at KMCK around 10-12z as precipitation moves out, but not until later in the afternoon at KGLD where low clouds persist.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. CO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for COZ090>092. NE...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NEZ079>081.