textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Another conditional threat for strong to severe storms this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Should storms develop large hail and damaging winds would be the main concerns.

- Storm chances continue daily the next few days.

- Warming back into 100s over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A high over the Four Corners will persist and extend to the east, pushing out a trough near the Appalachians. This will cause northwesterly flow to become more zonal. This will provide some weak vorticity, which may be enough to fire off some storms this afternoon. Today, highs are forecast to warm into the mid to upper 90s, there's a 25% chance that areas south of U.S. 40 reach triple digit heat today.

Chance for convection occurring is lower than in previous forecast, now only around 10-15%. If storms do fire, expect them near U.S. 385 in Colorado then progressing to the east in various directions. Hodographs are fairly straight, so splitting cells are likely, leading to the various easterly movements. Most likely time for convection will be between 21-2Z. 50-65 MPH wind and 0.5-1.5 inch hail are the primary threats.

Overnight lows tonight night look to cool into the 60s with yet another chance of fog and stratus in the northeastern CWA for Saturday morning. The area of concern is shrinking from the fog the previous few days, but McCook, NE still could see dense fog.

Tomorrow is a very similar setup to today and temperatures will likely start warming into the low triple digits. We are expecting a dry airmass to push into the CWA from the west. This looks to set off a line of convection around the eastern Colorado around 19-21Z and then move east. Winds gusting up to 70 MPH is going to be the most likely hazard from convection Saturday afternoon and evening, but 1 inch hail is possible, too. Individual cells look to only last about an hour or so with then event lasting until around 4- 6Z. Overnight lows look to cool into the 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 216 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Beginning Sunday, we transition to more of a zonal upper-level flow with a ridge building west of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast to remain unseasonably warm for the county warning area (CWA) through Tuesday with highs in the 90s to 100s. Sunday is forecast to be the hottest day with the entire CWA expected to reach above 100 degrees. A weak cold front moving through Tuesday night will start a cooling trend with high temperatures in the 90s Wednesday and further dropping in the 80s by Friday.

Starting Sunday evening through at least Friday, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight due to embedded shortwave passages. Late Wednesday, we begin to transition to more of a northwest upper-level flow with increased upper-level support from a jet streak overhead. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast period. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the late evenings and overnight hours Wednesday and Thursday with PoPs around 50-70%. Models are showing overall weak instability, but small hail and strong winds are still possible with any storms that form.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1117 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across the area. On the nose of a surface high across northeastern parts of the forecast area fog and stratus are forecast to develop again around 9-10Z. Currently MCK is favored as dew points in the low 70s have advected in already. Have concerns about wind being a little too strong that may affect how low fog gets but do think there is potential again for dense fog and very low ceilings. GLD is a bit on the iffier side as they are forecast to be on the southern fringe of the threat. Any fog is forecast to end by 14-15Z as breezy winds develop across the area. GLD is forecast to be the breeziest. Be on the lookout for storms resulting in strong winds and lightning Saturday afternoon. Confidence was too low in impacts to either terminal to include in this TAF.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.