textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly below normal temperatures expected this weekend.

- Breezy on Saturday with light rain showers Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Measurable rainfall may largely be confined south of I-70.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Synoptic Overview: An upper level ridge over the Central Plains will deamplify/erode as shortwave energy moving ashore northern California this afternoon progresses ESE across the 4-Corners (tonight), central-southern Rockies (Sat) and Southern Plains (Sat night-Sun). A modest cyclone assoc/w the aforementioned shortwave energy will develop in the lee of the southern Rockies (Sat) and track ESE across the Southern Plains (Sat night-Sun).

Quick Summary: 12Z 11/13 operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the aforementioned shortwave energy and associated lee cyclone will track slightly further south than previously indicated, far enough that (1) light rain may largely or entirely be confined south of I-70 and (2) southeasterly winds on Saturday may be weaker than previously indicated.

Tonight: SSE to SE low-level flow will strengthen as the MSLP to 850 mb height gradient tightens between lingering high pressure over the MS River Valley and surface pressure falls /trough development/ in the lee of the central-southern Rockies. While GFS forecast soundings continue to suggest that strengthening SE low-level flow may lead to renewed stratus development Sat morning, the signal is weaker (compared to yesterday's guidance) and largely confined to eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties. In this case/setup, breezy SE winds are likely to preclude fog development.

Sat-Sat night: SE to SSE low-level flow will further increase as the aforementioned shortwave energy traverses the central- southern Rockies and a modest lee cyclone develops along/south of the Raton Mesa, in northeast NM. 12Z 11/13 operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the aforementioned shortwave energy and associated lee cyclone will track slightly further south than previously indicated, far enough that (1) light rain may largely or entirely be confined south of I-70 and (2) southeasterly winds on Saturday may be weaker than previously indicated. No change to precipitation timing (beginning Sat aft- eve, ending Sun morning).

Sun-Sun night: The upper level wave and attendant cyclone over the Southern Plains will progress ESE toward the Lower MS River Valley/ Gulf Coast on Sun. Guidance suggests that persistent cloud cover will help maintain a cool, saturated airmass /baggy surface high/ over the Central Plains. Expect an atypically small diurnal temperature range with daytime highs in the 40's and overnight (Monday morning) lows in the 30's.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 256 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Guidance continues to support a fairly strong ridge developing Monday over the Rockies as an upper-level low exits to the southeast. Concurrently, an embedded shortwave should be departing our area to the east. Northwest flow aloft is anticipated as this ridge builds to the north of the County Warning Area (CWA). On Tuesday, NBM output is in general agreement with the global ensembles that the ridge becomes positively tilted, shifting upper- level winds to be from the southwest as this system propagates to the east. Furthermore, a longwave trough draped across the Pacific Coast lurks nearby. This next system is likely to weaken a bit Wednesday, ejecting quite a strong jet through the Central Plains in the process. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain heading into Thursday but the majority of models suggest a weak mini- ridge to set up briefly over the CWA then push eastward. Finally, ensembles are beginning to detect another strong cutoff low that moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest late Thursday. This new feature will need to be monitored through the weekend as well.

Surface analysis projects high pressure to form with the ridging system and last through early Wednesday. A weak surface low could influence the Tri-State area later on Wednesday via troughing aloft. Said low should track to the northeast, keeping potential impacts minimal. There is a cold front expected from this system though, which slightly boosts rainfall chances heading into Thursday. Furthermore, due to the positioning of the system off to the northwest, most of any precipitation that falls would be in the northern parts of our CWA and into southwest Nebraska. WPC currently has QPF forecasted in the 0.01 to 0.05 range so any rain would be minimal with light accumulation expected. Pre-frontal dewpoints in the low/mid 40s with relative humidities (RHs) in the 50-70% range do support precip. However, current Probability of Precipitation (PoP) guidance has us around 15-25% so confidence is low on accumulations for the time being.

Temperatures during this long-term forecast period are likely to follow a warming trend early to mid-week with high-pressure aloft and subsidence throughout the region. Highs in the low to mid 50s Monday increase to mid/upper 50s Tuesday then upper 50s/low 60s Wednesday. A weak cold front is forecasted to drop high temps slightly for Thursday but some locations in the eastern part of the CWA may still reach the 60s. Overnight low temperatures should drop to around freezing Monday and Tuesday mornings (low/mid 30s) then rise into the 35-42 degree range Wednesday morning. Lows on Thursday may be variable with low 30s possible for western areas of the CWA and low 40s for eastern locations.

Surface winds should be breezy during this period, especially when that jet streak moves overhead on Wednesday. 15-25 mph sustained southerly winds Monday, strengthening to 20-30 mph Tuesday is likely. Winds shift to to southwest Wednesday but remain strong at 20-30 mph. At last, winds die down quite a bit to 5-15 mph. Gusting up to 40 mph is likely across the Tri-State area through Wednesday, especially in some locations of our eastern Colorado counties. 45-50 mph gusts will be possible on Wednesday across those more wind prone areas. Despite the gusty winds, fire weather concerns remain minimal as relative humidities are actually forecasted to be much higher than even elevated conditions would support. RHs consistently above 40% are likely through midweek. Thursday should be the driest day across our coverage area, but again with RHs above even elevated fire weather criteria. Values as low as 35% west of US-385 are possible. Widespread overnight RHs may increase to 100% Monday and Tuesday mornings with radiational cooling; thus, fog will be possible next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

GLD: A narrow, north-south oriented corridor of LIFR-IFR ceilings in far western KS will continue to erode from west to east late this morning. Expect ceilings to lift and scatter to VFR early this afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the afternoon into tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop around or shortly before sunrise (10-12Z Sat) and persist through the remainder of the morning. S winds at 15-20 knots with gusts to ~25 knots will prevail this afternoon into tonight. Southerly winds will back to the SSE or SE and increase to 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots around or shortly before sunrise (10-12Z Sat), further increasing to 25 knots with gusts to ~35 knots during the late morning.

MCK: IFR or MVFR ceilings may return for a period this afternoon as a narrow, north-south oriented corridor of low ceilings in far western KS and southwest NE.. the eastern fringe of which was located no more than 5-10 miles west of the McCook terminal at 18Z.. slowly shifts eastward while eroding from west-to-east. VFR conditions are expected to prevail late this afternoon and overnight. Borderline VFR-MVFR ceilings (~3000-4000 ft AGL) may develop after sunrise, near the end of the TAF period. SSE winds at 10-15 knots with occasional gusts up to 25 knots are expected this afternoon and overnight. SSE winds will back to the SE and increase to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots late Saturday morning, near the end of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.