textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-40%) through the start of next week.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper ridge located today from the Southern Plains to the southeast CONUS will reset over the Central Plains and strengthen over the weekend. The High Plains will be on the western side of the ridge axis with weak southwest flow. At the surface, the lee trough will be persistent over eastern Colorado through the period with little movement expected. Under the ridge, temperatures will continue to be above normal, with highs in the 90s and a few locations in the lower 100s. The deepening lee trough will result in increasing south to southeasterly winds, with the strongest winds in the Kansas and Colorado border area. Gusts Saturday afternoon will be up to 35 mph and gusts by Sunday afternoon will be up to 40 mph.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to the area beginning on Friday and continue through the weekend. Generally speaking, convection will initiate in southeast Colorado associated with weak disturbances rotating around the ridge, as well as the typical afternoon storms in the mountains and Front Range. Additional storms may develop in the local area along mesoscale boundaries such as the lee trough. Environmental parameters will be weak, with instability peaking at 1000-1500 j/kg and deep layer shear of 10-20 kts. A more favorable parameter will be DCAPE due to the hot and relatively dry boundary layer, with values as high as 2000 j/kg. The overall severe threat will be low through the period, but cannot discount a marginally severe wind threat given the favorable DCAPE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 232 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Sunday through early next week, large upper level ridge over the Dakotas and Minnesota starts sliding and amplifying towards the east as the low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest region begins moving east into Southern Canada. This will cause the pattern to shift into zonal flow over the majority of Northern CONUS on Wednesday. Upper level southwesterly flow is still expected until the low pressure system completely moves through transitioning to a more westerly flow. With diurnal heating and deepening embedded shortwave troughs, there is high confidence (75%) that a weak storm could happen Sunday evening over the northern portions of the forecast area. While there is storm supporting mixed layer (ML) CAPE value of 640 J/kg, storm motion will be relatively slow. Heavy rainfall would be the main potential hazard as precipitable water (PWats) is forecast to be 1.45 inches.

Throughout the remainder of the period, chances for afternoon and evening showers do increase as the low pressure continues to move further northeast. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) for Monday evening will be 35-40% in northern Yuma county and taper down to 10% towards Gove county. Tuesday afternoon looks to be similar to Sunday afternoon as a weak cold front will pass through from the low pressure system with ML CAPE value at 840J/kg and a disorganized wind shear profile. There is low to medium confidence (35-40%) that this will happen as there is inconsistency within the guidance. PoPs for Wednesday evening is ranging from 30-35% throughout the entire area, but there is low confidence that this will stay as the pattern changes.

Temperatures are forecast to start above normal with the potential to drop back into seasonal temperatures with Sunday and Monday highs being in the low to mid 90s. There is growing uncertainty with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the potential cold front moving through. NBM 75th to 25th percentiles have a 9 degree difference from the forecasted temperature with potential temperatures dipping further into the upper 70s and low 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1114 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and mostly clear skies.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.