textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures expected through the remainder of the work week.

- Patchy fog possible Wednesday morning, mainly in southwest Nebraska.

- Precipitation chances return next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 315 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Overview (Today-Thursday): SW flow aloft over the central Rockies and adjoining High Plains will back to the SSW and strengthen as a broad upper level ridge steadily amplifies over the central CONUS and a cut-off low along the Pacific Coast slowly moves ashore California and progresses east into the Intermountain West. In the lower levels, moisture from the TX Gulf Coast will continue to advance northward through the Southern and Central Plains via persistent southerly flow on the eastern periphery of a diurnally waxing/waning surface trough in the lee of the central-southern Rockies.

Through Tonight: Mid-upper level cloud cover and scattered high-based showers/virga associated with a shortwave trough progressing E-ENE from CO into western KS (reference 700-400 mb DVA on SPC mesoanalysis) will diminish/abate from west to east this evening and overnight as the shortwave progresses E-ESE into central-southern KS. Light/variable or calm winds and decreasing upper level cloud cover could assist in the development of patchy fog a few hours on either side of sunrise Wed. Surface visibility forecasts via the most recent (19Z) run of the HRRR suggests a scenario similar to this morning, i.e. relative greatest potential for dense fog will be in southwest Nebraska.

Wed-Wed night: Episodic shortwave energy will be confined west of the Goodland CWA (to the Intermountain West, Desert Southwest and 4-Corners) in this period, as the aforementioned ridge amplifies over the Southern and Central Plains. Expect mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures with daytime highs in the mid-upper 70's and overnight (Thu morning) lows in the upper 40's to lower 50's.

Thursday: Similar to Wed, albeit slightly warmer (highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's) and becoming breezy, with south winds at 15-25 mph.

Thursday night: Southerly flow will strengthen in earnest Thu evening into Fri morning, as the aforementioned upper low progresses east into the Intermountain West and a more pronounced 850 mb trough develops in the lee of the Rockies. Breezy south winds and increasing upper level cloud cover will foster warmer overnight (Fri morning) lows in the mid 50's to lower 60's.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 202 AM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

On Friday, Southwesterly flow aloft persist over the area as the trough to the southwest starts to move northeastward. Towards the surface, the area is forecast to be in between a low-pressure system off to the northern Rocky Mountain Piedmont region and a high pressure system to the east. this will likely cause some breezy conditions within the forecast area with higher winds favored over the US 385 corridor. Wind speeds are expected to be between 20 and 30 mph with possible gusts over 40 mph from the south. With this being said, afternoon temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 70s to low 80s as cloud coverage starts to decrease later in the day.

Over the weekend, southwesterly flow aloft will start to slowly shift into zonal flow later Sunday night. This should allow a cold front to pass through early Saturday morning. While there are unfavorable conditions for severe weather, a possible weak thunderstorm could occur as CAPE is the main driving factor with values above 500 J/kg. While confidence for showers is medium to high (55-75%), confidence for thunderstorms is low (25%). If precipitation occurs, it is favored to occur east of K-25.On Sunday, lingering showers from Saturday could occur as a possible surface low-pressure is forecast to form to the west of the area and draw in moisture from the south. There is low to medium confidence (25-40%) that showers may occur as forecast guidance becomes inconsistent over the area. Once the cold front passes, afternoon temperatures should settle back down into seasonal averages being in the 60s

Monday, the upper-level pattern becomes unclear as forecast guidance presents a couple of possible scenarios. The first scenario is continuing zonal flow over the northern CONUS that may keep afternoon temperatures in the 60s. The second scenario is that an upper-level ridge could form to the west and bring in a secondary cold front, lowering afternoon temperatures into the 50s. Otherwise, it is likely to be partly cloudy with calm winds from the south throughout the day.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 440 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with cloud cover confined above ~10,000 ft AGL. SSE or S winds at 10-15 knots may occasionally gust to 20-25 knots late this afternoon. Winds are expected to weaken and become light/variable after sunset, as a broad surface trough in CO extends eastward over northwest KS. Light and variable winds are likely to persist through the remainder of the 00Z TAF period.

MCK: Fog, possibly dense, may develop an hour or two on either side of sunrise Wed morning. Given that dense fog developed at the McCook terminal this morning and that there will be relatively little change in the overall pattern, have opted to include a TEMPO group for fog/IFR conditions between 11-15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. High-based showers with ceilings ~8,000 ft AGL may linger 10-20 miles southeast of the terminal prior to dissipating and shifting east this evening. Light (5-10 knot) easterly to southerly winds will become variable this evening and are expected to remain variable through the rest of the 00Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.