textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Monday there is a marginal risk for severe storms possible in the afternoon to evening. Primary threats are large hail up to 2 inches and gusts up to 60 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1154 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026

Today, is still a conditional high impact severe weather day. As the 500 mb moves over the Four Corners, it will create another trough axis that will sweep over the CWA in the afternoon hours. Down at 850 mb, this will allow a low to form in northern Colorado and move to the north-northeast in the afternoon. This low will draw in southwesterly, warm and dry air, setting up a dryline. East of the dryline, southeasterly flow is expected to keep dew points in the 60s. The big question is where will this dryline be when both the 500 mb vorticity catches up with it and when surface temperatures hit convective-T values. As it stands, the dryline could setup anywhere along and east a line from Yuma, CO to Oakley, KS when storms start to fire. This also includes a potential that storms fire to the east of the CWA and we are not impacted.

It's worth noting the farther east the dryline sets up, the less likely it will be that any storms develop. This is due to a large separation between the low and upper-level forcing factors. Additionally, persistent cloud cover over the northern CWA this morning may reduce the instability storms this afternoon can tap into. This may limit the severe weather threat in southwestern Nebraska.

These storms look to fire between 20-23Z as a broken line of individual cells. Low level dew points look to remain around 60 in the northeastern CWA. This will allow CAPE values to climb into the 2,500-4,000 J/kg range with effective shear of 30-55 kts, and promote surface based storms. This would present a significant threat for all hazards. Hail in the 2-3.25 inch range, 75 MPH wind gusts from down bursts, and a few tornadoes, potentially long-lived tornadoes, would be possible. Convection looks to fire along most of the dryline very quickly and then move to the northeast, out of the CWA, by 4Z.

There is an additional area of concern for storms around Yuma county. This area could see convection fire on the western edge of the dryline or an approaching warm front. Either way, this would also fire off storms around 20-23Z in Yuma county and move them to the northeast. Then around 2-5Z, as a weak cold front enters, additional precipitation may occur. The first wave of storms for this area could be splitting supercells with hail up to 2.5 inches and a brief tornado being the main threats. The second wave may produce some hail up to 1 inch, but otherwise should remain sub- severe. Overnight, temperatures look to cool into the mid 40s to upper 50s as the trough exits to the northeast.

Sunday, we will sit under southwesterly flow aloft with 850 mb being fairly disorganized as we are sandwiched between a high over the Gulf coast and a low over the Northern Plains. This will promote mostly clear skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s. A weak 500 mb shortwave may move over eastern Colorado in the afternoon, allowing some showers or storms to form off the Palmer Divide. Likely, these showers will decay as they enter the CWA, but there is a 5% chance they persist over the central CWA moving to the east overnight. Lows overnight look to cool into the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

For The upper pattern there looks to be a ridge that is sandwiched between two lows over Canada on Monday Guidance is showing a little shortwave disturbance that can be seen at 500 mb that moves through the CWA. The high temperatures for the day are in the 80s to 90s. The lows remain in the 50s.

There are chances for precipitation/storm chances for Monday afternoon and into the overnight hours. Starting with instability, guidance is suggesting there being at least 1000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE. Some models do suggest there being around 2000 J/kg which would be on the higher end. The NBM and LREF's 90th percentile show around 2000 J/kg as well. Moving to wind shear, the SFC-500 mb shear is in the 35-50 kts range. The lapse rates are currently forecast to be in the 7.9-9.0 C/km range. There are some models that are showing higher Lapse Rates, which would lead to high instability values. NCAR AI-NWP does show a signal that would help build confidence in severe weather outcomes. Currently, there is some disagreements with location and specific timing, but the timing does look to be the afternoon into evening. Looking at soundings there is a mixture of both hooked and straight-line hodographs. The main threats that would be associated with these storms would be hail up to 2.00", Gusts in the 45-55 kts, and a brief tornado could be possible if storms develop.

Tuesday high temperatures are in the 80s and lows in the 50s. The winds look to be from the southeast and relatively calm. There is precipation chances for the day. The main timing looks to be in the early evening into the night. CAPE is the range of 1000-1500 J/kg, with little to no shear, which would lead to very little severe chances. Looking at the PoPs there is 50-60% chance. There is about a 30-50% of exceeding 0.10". The PWATs for the CWA show 1"-1.30". Looking at GFS sounds the atmosphere is deeply saturated. Also looking Corfidi up and downshear magnitude would be around or under 30 kts. This would suggest the storms/showers would be slow-moving or stationary.

For the extended period of the week, the low pressure system to the northwest of the ridge will kick out some shortwave troughs that will bring precipitation chances to the region. This does look to be on the weaker side as it quickly crumbles away come Wednesday. Then the upper flow transitions to more zonal flow. Towards next weekend there are signs of a trough that moves into the area from the Pacific Northwest.

Guidance has been showing the high temperatures to be in the 80s for the majority of this period. For Friday and Saturday the temperatures warm up a bit to the low 90s, as the upper pattern transitions. The lows are forecast to be in the 50-60s range. Wednesday through Friday PoPs are in the 20-60% range during the each day's afternoon/evening hours. Saturday Precipitation chances decrease to 10-30%. As for severe potential, there is no strong signal for anything yet, but nothing can be ruled out since this is about 5-7 days out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface winds will be light with occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.