textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect cooler temperatures and predominantly dry conditions through the weekend.

- Wednesday's high temperatures may get to above 100 degrees and may pose a fire weather threat.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 155 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Synoptic Overview: Unidirectional/westerly flow aloft will persist over the the weekend. A transition to NNW flow aloft will follow, on Monday, as an upper level ridge amplifies along the Pacific Coast and broad cyclonic flow aloft envelopes the eastern CONUS.

Today-Tonight: An SW-NE oriented inverted surface trough / effective front extending northeastward from Springfield, CO (KSPD) to Garden City (KGCK) and Hays (KHYS) at 18Z will shift southeastward into central-southern Kansas this afternoon as a broad surface high over the Northern Plains extends southward into the Central Plains. Current and recent runs of high resolution guidance, surface observations, radar/satellite data and mesoanalysis trends strongly suggest that convective development will be confined south and east of the Goodland county warning area this afternoon and evening. With steering flow from the W, right-mover motion from the NW and left-mover motion from the SW-SSW, convection that develops along the southeastward advancing inverted surface trough / low-level convergence zone will propagate eastward (away from the Goodland CWA). Expect dry conditions with highs ranging from the upper 70's (north) to lower-mid 90's (south). Breezy (20-30 mph) N to NE winds may occasionally gust up to 40 mph this afternoon. Winds will decrease to 10-15 mph after sunset and remain light overnight. A few elevated showers cannot be ruled-out south of I-70 late tonight and early Sun morning (~06-14Z). Expect lows in the upper 40's to mid 50's.

Sun-Sun night: Surface high pressure will persist over the Northern and Central Plains. Guidance suggests that widespread convective development and upscale growth into one or several mesoscale convective systems over KS, OK and the TX Panhandle this evening into Sunday will considerably alter the MSLP to 850 mb height pattern over the Southern Plains; creating a pronounced meso-high that significantly hampers or straight-out blocks low-level moisture return from the Gulf into the Central Plains. Expect dry conditions across most or all of the Goodland CWA, except (perhaps) for portions of eastern CO, where light SE flow in the immediate lee of the Rockies may aid/facilitate the development of scattered sub-severe diurnal convection along portions of the Palmer Divide at peak heating. Expect highs ranging from the mid-upper 60's to lower 70's, coolest in northeast CO.

Mon-Mon night: The Southern Plains meso-high will begin to break down on Mon, allowing some degree of low-level moisture return from the TX Panhandle into southeast CO and southwest KS, though.. guidance suggests that convection accompanying a small amplitude wave (350-400 mb level) progressing SSE from central CO into southwest KS ~12-18Z Mon morning may alter environmental conditions, hindering convective development during the afternoon. Expect a low chance (~20%) for early morning showers/ storms in southwest portions of the Goodland CWA and a modest warming trend with highs in the upper 70's.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The upper pattern for Tuesday still has the ridge off the Pacific- Northwest and over our area the flow is from the northwest. The high temperatures are currently forecast to be in the mid 80s and lower 90s range. The winds remain calm and gusts tame. As for precipitation chances, PoPs are currently showing 5-10% chance and with there being CAPE less than 500 J/kg, these would likely just be pop-up rain showers if anything were to develop.

Wednesday, still looks to have a concern for the high temperatures and fire weather. The high temperatures for the day are currently forecast to be in the high 90s to low 100s. Looking at Guidance the probability of exceeding 100 for the day is around 20-45%. The maximum temperatures that could be seen are 100-105 degrees with a 10-20% chance of exceeding 105. These high temperatures around or above 100 still would be south of I-70 and east of KS Hwy 25. The lows for Wednesday also look to be above normal with the EFI SOT showing values in the 0.6-0.7 for Yuma County. Currently the lows are forecast to be in the mid to high 60s.

The Fire Weather Concerns are present for the majority of the County Warning Area (CWA) and the main timing focus is in the morning to afternoon hours on Wednesday. Winds look to be from northwest in the morning hours then shifting around midday to be from the northeast. Sustained winds are forecast to be in the 20-30 mph range. The Gusts are forecast to be in the 30-45 mph range. One thing to note, Guidance is disagreeing on the peak gust speeds. The NBM is currently favoring the higher values with a 15-35% chance of seeing gusts exceeding 50 mph. The LREF has the gusts has a 10-20% chance of exceeding 40 mph. Moving on to the Relative Humidity (RH) values, the majority of the CWA looks to get below 15%. The lowest RH values look to be west of KS Hwy 27, and values in single digits for Cheyenne County in Colorado. Moving to GFDI, there are values 50+ for mainly Yuma and Kit Carson counties in CO. This would indicate very high fire growth. The main uncertainty would be are the ingredients/criteria for Critical Fire Weather being met at the same time. The higher gusts are more favored for Yuma and the northern parts of Kit Carson in the morning, but the RH values do not begin to decrease until the afternoon and the lowest values favor Cheyenne County in Colorado. One last thing to note, is this is about 5 days out, but there is signal for at least there being Elevated Fire Weather present and currently 30-40% that conditions will meet Red Flag Criteria at some point in the day.

One other hazard that maybe present Wednesday, is localized blowing dust. After looking at Guidance the conditions are there for plumes of blowing dust. Given the 2-2.5 C/km is higher than the threshold, any dust should get mixed up into atmosphere and could create air quality issues and visibility could get reduced down to a mile.

For the extended part of the week. The upper pattern transitions to more zonal flow with the winds coming from the west-northwest. During this period there could be some shortwave disturbances that could bring us some precipitation. Thursday through Saturday temperatures look to be in the mid 80s to high 90s. Thursday does have a cool down, as there is a cold front moving into very late Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning. This cold front should bring the highs down to the mid 80s. The winds and gusts both show some signs of there being gusts up to 30 mph but it varies day to day. As for precipation chances, Friday has the strongest signal for showers/storms. Friday's SFC-CAPE values, from Guidance, are around the 1000-1500 J/kg for the mean. The 90th percentile for both the NBM and LREF are around the 1500-2000 J/kg range. These values would be supportive of showers/storms. The NCAR AI NWP Convective Hazard Forecast does have some forecasts showing a 5-15% chance for severe hazards. Granted this is still about a week away and a fair amount can change.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 435 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. 20-30 knot NNE to ENE winds this afternoon will decrease to 12-16 knots around or shortly after sunset (02-03Z). Winds will further weaken and become variable overnight. Winds are expected to remain light and variable throughout the day on Sunday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.