textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense freezing fog may develop a few hours on either side of sunrise this morning, mainly along/east of Hwy 83. Even a trace amount of ice on bridges and overpasses could create hazardous travel conditions. Fog, where present, will dissipate several hours after sunrise. Temperatures will rise above freezing by Noon CST.

- An extended period of widespread dense fog is possible Tuesday morning. Temperatures are expected to remain above- freezing.

- Most of next week, there are chances for precipitation across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

This Morning: 06Z SPC mesoanalysis data indicate an ill- defined low-level (surface to 850 mb) pattern characterized by weak (5-10 knot) easterly to southerly flow over the Tri-State Area this morning. 06Z surface observations and satellite imagery indicate a wide expanse of stratus over central and eastern portions of KS-NE, the far western fringe of which was located along/near a line extending SSE from McCook, NE to Oberlin and Hill City, KS. Low ceilings have slowly advanced westward (via weak easterly low-level flow) into eastern portions of the Goodland CWA the past few hours. With light/variable to light southerly low-level flow in place over far northwest KS, further westward/uphill advancement will likely become increasingly difficult as the morning progresses. In an environment with weak low-level flow, the western-most extent/edge of stratus is important in the sense that.. it's often a favorable location for dense fog to develop, i.e. a shallow moist airmass beneath low ceilings adjacent to a relatively colder surface airmass (stronger radiational cooling in the absence of low ceilings). The presence of a thick, opaque veil of cirrus over the region (per IR satellite imagery) is, however, a notable confounding factor.. decreasing confidence with regard to whether or not fog will develop (and, if so, extent/duration). With air temperatures in the 20's, dense freezing fog could deposit a glaze of ice on elevated roadways (bridges and overpasses, in particular). Fog, if/where present, will dissipate several hours after sunrise, with temperatures rising above freezing by ~Noon CST.

This Afternoon: Low-level southerly return flow will foster a rapid warming trend. Expect highs ranging from the lower 50's (Norton/Graham) to mid 60's (eastern CO). While low stratus (where present) will gradually lift and scatter during the late morning and afternoon, a thick veil of orographically enhanced cirrus may still render overcast skies for much of the area. With weak/absent forcing, precipitation is not expected.

Tonight: A broad lee cyclone will develop in CO tonight as an upper level low (presently moving ashore the Pacific Coast) slowly progresses east across the Intermountain West and 4-Corners. Strengthening southerly flow / low-level warm advection on the eastern periphery of the developing cyclone will foster the development of widespread stratus/fog late this evening and overnight. An extended period of widespread dense fog is possible Tue morning (~06-18Z, midnight to noon). Guidance continues to indicate little, if any, potential for precipitation in the Goodland CWA, with light precip confined to central-eastern KS. Either way, well above-freezing thermal/ vertical wetbulb profiles will be present across the entire area, leaving little doubt w/regard to p-type (rain).

Tue-Tue night: The aforementioned upper level low will slowly progress eastward across the Rockies (Tue) and Central Plains (Tue night). A cool/moist low-level airmass will reign over the Tri-State Area.. as the associated lee cyclone in CO tracks ESE- SE to the TX Panhandle (Tue aft) then eastward across OK (Tue night). Elevated showers may accompany the passage of the upper level low during the late afternoon and evening (~21Z Tue to ~06Z Wed), mainly north of I-70. Guidance indicates that well above-freezing thermal/vertical wetbulb profiles will persist over the region, precluding wintry precipitation.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 340 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Wednesday is shaping up to be a pleasant day for the Tri-State area. Precipitation will exit the eastern county warning area (CWA) early morning ushering in clear skies and more typical temperatures for early March. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s with lows in the 30s. Our region is under a weak southwest flow aloft with a trough developing off the west coast, so winds are expected to be gentle. Our Colorado counties could see an occasional gust around 20 mph in the afternoon.

As the trough propagates eastward toward our CWA, our region is forecast to be under a more southwesterly flow. This will further warm conditions with high temperatures forecast in the mid to high 70s. Southerly winds and a dryline developing in west Texas could allow for further drying to take place lowering relative humidity (RH) values further than currently forecast. RH values are forecast in the low teens for the southwest CWA. A few hours of critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon. Winds are forecast to pick up Thursday afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Fire weather concerns will decrease after sundown as RH's and dewpoints are able to recover. Winds will persist through the overnight hours as a deepening upper level trough traverses towards our region placing us in a strong southwest flow under a 250 mb jet streak. This increase in upper level forcing will give us a chance for precipitation overnight Thursday into Friday. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 20-40% overnight increasing south to north. A majority of the CWA should expect rain as the primary precipitation type based on forecast temperatures above freezing. Our Colorado counties could see some freezing drizzle. NBM probabilities of temperatures below freezing are around 20% for the far western portions of Kit Carson, Yuma, and Cheyenne (CO) counties. It is also worth mentioning that the eastern CWA has a low potential for thunderstorm activity based on increased MUCAPE over the area present in both the GFS and the ECMWF.

Friday, our region remains under a strong southwest flow with a deep trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Winds continue to pick up Friday and will reach their peak in the afternoon. A vertically stacked southwest flow will likely allow stronger winds to mix down to the surface Friday afternoon. Winds gusts from 30-40 mph are possible for entire CWA. Winds calm down after sunset returning to our more typical diurnal pattern overnight into Saturday.

Precipitation chances continue throughout the day Friday following a cold frontal passage. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 40s to low 60s. Rain is the expected precipitation type during the day, but after sundown when temperatures drop below freezing, the western CWA could see a wintery mix. Precipitation is expected to exit the region by early Saturday morning. Areas that see temperatures below freezing should be cautious of accumulated precipitation to refreeze on roads and walkways.

Our region remains under a strong southwest flow Saturday, so another warming trend is expected. High temperatures for Saturday are forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. Fire weather could be a concern with RH values forecast in the upper teens for our Colorado counties along with afternoon wind gusts up to 30 mph possible. Low confidence on this currently since RH values will likely change based on how much precipitation we get Thursday though Saturday morning. Sunday continues to warm with high temperatures forecast in the 60s to 70s. Similar fire weather concerns to Saturday based on RH values, but winds may not be strong enough for critical fire weather conditions to occur.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 415 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the majority of the TAF period, with ceilings confined to cirrus at or above ~15,000 ft AGL. Sub-VFR conditions associated with fog and/or low stratus are expected Tue morning, near the end of the 12Z TAF period. WSW to SW winds at 5-10 knots will back to the S and increase to 15-20 knots w/gusts to ~25 knots late this morning (~18Z) and persist into the afternoon. Winds will decrease to 8-13 knots and back to the SE around, or shortly before, sunset. Light SE winds are expected to prevail thereafter, through the remainder of the TAF period.

MCK: Ongoing (as of 1105Z) LIFR ceilings will persist through sunrise. Ceilings are expected to lift to IFR and MVFR several hours after sunrise. Expect further improvement to VFR late this morning (by ~18Z), with VFR conditions persisting through the afternoon. Deteriorating conditions associated with low ceilings and/or fog are expected this evening, with further deterioration to IFR-LIFR overnight. E to SE winds at ~6-12 knots will prevail through the majority of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.