textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation will persist through the morning. The flooding risk remains very low.

- Widespread nuisance and patchy dense fog possible the next couple of mornings.

- 40% chance of brief freezing temperatures along and north of U.S. 34 Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 220 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

As expected, the upper level low that was over the Four Corners is coming over the Rockies early this morning. The low is providing widespread forcing, allowing the low level southerly moist air advection to produce rain across the bulk of the CWA. This precipitation is forecast to persist through the morning. With the low-level moisture advection, and ample surface moisture from recent precipitation, widespread fog is forecast to persist into the mid to late morning. We cannot rule out patches of dense fog, but the vast majority of the CWA should expect to see 0.5-4 mile visibility in fog this morning.

In the late morning and early afternoon, as the low-level low ejects to the northeast and out of the CWA, its trailing cold front will push the more moist air out to the east of the CWA. This will be the primary ending factor for this precipitation event. Precipitation is forecast to fully exit the area by 0Z with Graham county being the last to see precipitation. Additionally the front will bring in northwesterly winds that may occasionally gust up around 20-25 kts before 0Z this evening.

Precipitation totals for the rest of this morning look to largely remain under 0.25 of an inch south of U.S. 36 and around 0.2-0.4 inches north of U.S. 36. An isolated pocket or two of up to 1 inch of rain is still possible (15% chance), most likely around Red Willow county. Since this event has been primarily slow falling rain, and will remain this way, the threat for flooding is now less than 10%.

Southwesterly flow aloft will dominate for the rest of the period after the low exits the region today. This flow will promote an overall warming trend. Today, highs will be capped in the mid 50s to low 60s, thanks to the cold front and lingering showers. By Wednesday, temperatures look to warm to near 70!

Seasonal lows are expected, despite the warming highs. Tonight, a surface high will be trailing the low as it exits the area. This will lead to some prolonged northerly flow, especially in the eastern half of the CWA. This northerly flow may drive dew points and air temperatures down to below freeze. As it stands, there is a 40% chance that areas along and north of a line from Yuma, CO to Norton, KS will see freezing temperatures. As the high, and it's associated inverted ridge, leave the CWA (around 9-12Z), southerly flow at the surface will dominate. This will bring in moist, warm air advection, warming temperatures before sunrise. This advection also has a 60% chance of bringing in enough moisture to produce widespread fog across the CWA. Much like Monday morning, most visibilities will be above 0.5 mile, but patches of dense fog would be possible. Thankfully, since the fog threat is largely tied to the WAA, freezing fog is very unlikely: less than 5% chance of occurring. It's worth noting that we have passed the end of the growing season, so we will not be issuing any Frost or Freeze products for the rest of the year.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 239 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Thursday, our region is forecast to be in a mostly southwesterly upper-level flow with a developing trough in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). The track and evolution of this trough will determine precipitation chances heading into the weekend and early next week.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be pleasant, with most of the county warning area (CWA) reaching the upper 60s to 70s. Friday is when we start to see a potential pattern change from the aforementioned trough in the PNW.

Currently, the trough is forecast to become more of a cut off low sometime late Friday/early Saturday. This would favor more widespread precipitation chances as it would generally keep our region in a southwest upper-level flow with various embedded shortwaves being ejected across the area Friday through Monday. Current Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 20-40% Friday through Monday. Precipitation is expected to generally be showers. Instability is overall weak Friday with modest lapse rates and spotty CAPE values of <500 J/kg, so a weak thunderstorm or two isn't out of the question if it is able to tap into the weak instability in the environment.

If the trough digs farther south instead of becoming a cutoff low, a more active weather pattern could develop due to stronger synoptic forcing and greater moisture availability.

Outside of precipitation chances for the weekend, temperatures are expected to be mild with high temperatures forecast in the 60s. Monday has the potential to be a windy day with gusts up to 50 mph possible for eastern Colorado. This will also depend on how our system for the weekend pans out, but something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Near airport minimum conditions are expected to prevail through the early morning hours for KGLD and KMCK. Fog and low ceilings will keep airports in low categories with showers occasionally improving conditions to just IFR. Conditions are forecast to improve around the midday as a cold front enters the area. A few 20 kts gusts will be possible behind the cold front, more likely at KMCK. This evening and into the overnight hours, fog and stratus are forecast to return, putting us back down to near minimums by Tuesday morning.

Cooler temperatures and additional ambient moisture will increase the risk for low-level icing, too.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.