textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through the duration of the work week, hottest on Thu-Fri when highs are forecast to reach the upper 80's to mid 90's.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon, primarily in Colorado, with relative humidity falling to 15-20% and southeasterly winds increasing to 20-30 mph by late afternoon.

- Locally gusty winds of 40-50 mph may accompany sprinkles and virga this evening.

- A marginal risk for a severe storm or two Thursday afternoon and early evening for the entire area. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to an inch in diameter are possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1120 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Current observations show an upper ridge over much of the High Plains with low pressure setting in along the Front Range. This is forecast to allow winds to stay breezy for much of the area along the Colorado border. This morning has already seen winds around 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. With these speeds likely to continue through the day, elevated fire weather conditions remain forecast. We may be able to see some briefly critical conditions if the southerly flow is too slow in bringing in lower level moisture and higher dewpoints. Otherwise, sunny skies are forecast through the day.

This evening, cloud cover is forecast to increase as an upper trough begins to try and push in behind the ridge and bring higher level moisture. This is also forecast to bring a 10% or less chance for isolated sprinkles/showers through much of the night. Winds should stay up around 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph until closer to sunrise when the surface low moves more into the area. Temperatures should remain in the 50s and 60s.

Thursday, the upper trough is forecast to swing into and through the Northern Plains while the surface low moves over the area. With the low over the area, winds should be lighter with speeds closer to 10- 15 mph, but varying in direction depending on what side of the low you are on. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast with the higher level moisture forecast to slowly push from west to east. Even with the cloud cover, temperatures are forecast to warm to around 90 with continued warm air advection due to winds from the west/southwest in the lower levels. A few thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon/evening hours with convergence zones setting up along the surface low. The issue is that the low levels are forecast to have a 30-50 degree dewpoint depression, which should hinder how many storms could develop and sustain themselves. We do have a chance for severe weather as dry microbursts will be a concerns with showers/storms that do develop. With this, there could be a few gusts that reach 60-70 mph. As for hail, most of the area east of Highway 83 will likely be too dry and have too little instability for anything more than 1/4 to 1/2 inch hail. Further east, the instability is forecast to be a bit higher (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) during the evening hours. If a storm sustains itself, it wouldn't be unreasonable for hail up to one inch in size to occur. The overall chance for severe weather in the area looks to be about 5-10% with a few spotty instances if severe weather does occur.

Friday, zonal flow is forecast to develop over the Plains with the low pressure system broadening just south of the area. This will put the area in northerly flow at the surface and may allow for a slight cooling of temperatures with 80s for the western half and low 90s for the rest of the area. Drier air is forecast to push into the area and lower relative humidity into the single digits and teens for most of the area. This could lead to a concern for critical fire weather conditions if the winds can be stronger than the current forecast. For now though, the surface low is forecast to become more broad and weaken the winds as the day goes along. Skies should be mostly sunny through the day with drier air in place through most of the air column. There is the possibility of a few showers when upper level moisture moves in from the west late in the day. However, the overall lack of forcing is forecast to keep showers generally west of the area in the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 315 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

***Synopsis***

Saturday, a trough makes its way across the Rockies and looks to develop a strong southerly return flow. At the same time, another upper-level trough digging into the United States from the Pacific Northwest looks to undergo moderate to intense deepening, associated with low to mid-level cooling. This feature is favored to dig into portions of the Western United States Saturday and into Sunday. These two troughing features may be associated with active weather during the weekend. A cold front is favored to traverse the forecast region sometime Sunday night or Monday as upper-level troughing moves in overhead. Moving forward, an active pattern may continue as troughing once again sets up across the west.

***Saturday***

As the surface low continues to deepen and broaden into portions of Colorado, a strong southerly flow appears likely. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast in the mid-80s to lower-90s. GEFS 850-mb height mean-spread guidance is in strong agreement that a high will be located across the Southeast United States, with a low in Central Mexico. These features, along with the surface low across the South- Central High Plains, could work together to provide moisture in this southerly flow. Some areas in Northwest Kansas, particularly areas east of US-83, have greater than a 50% chance to experience dew points 50 degrees or higher. Additionally, a warm front may be present across Kansas during this time along with a dryline near the Kansas-Colorado border. However, the exact location of these features are in question, as LREF guidance suggests a spread of 60- 70 degrees in wind direction across the region Saturday afternoon and evening. Even so, surface CAPE values up to 2500 J/kg across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska can't be ruled out. GFS and EC model soundings suggest that 30-50 kts of 0-6 km shear are possible, which could support strong wind gusts and large hail. Confidence in a severe event Saturday afternoon and evening has increased, but is right around 10% at best.

***Sunday***

Severe weather may continue on Sunday as the trough from the Pacific Northwest digs southeastward, though critical fire weather may be added to the mix. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to take place somewhere across portions of Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas. GEFS 850-mb mean-spread guidance is in agreement with this assessment, placing a low across this region Sunday afternoon. This may introduce some southwesterly flow into the CWA, aiding in the development of a dryline. However, there is significant uncertainty as to where the dryline sets up, as represented by LREF 75th-25th percentile spread in dew point temperatures of 15-25 degrees across the region. Areas west of the dryline may see RH values as low as the mid-teens, with wind gusts up to 40 mph due to the strengthening cyclone. NBM guidance suggests most of Eastern Colorado has a 75-90% chance of gusts meeting critical fire weather criteria Sunday afternoon. This would suggest increasing confidence in Red Flag conditions behind the dryline. Ahead of the dryline, LREF 90th percentile guidance suggests 2000-2500 J/kg of surface CAPE can't be ruled out. GFS and EC model soundings suggest that up to 40 kts of 0- 6 km shear is possible, which would support severe weather again. Hazards from severe storms look to be strong winds and large hail. While uncertainty continues to exist regarding the positioning of the dryline, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed behind the boundary is about 20% at this time, with about 10% confidence of severe weather ahead of the dryline Sunday afternoon and evening.

***Monday/Tuesday***

As troughing moves over the area Monday, high temperatures look to decrease a bit into the upper-60s to upper-70s Monday, and mid-70s to lower-80s Tuesday. Precipitation may occur behind the cold front Monday, though LREF guidance suggests that most of this activity would be associated with light, widespread rain that is around 0.1 inches or less. Ensemble guidance appears to favor troughing to redevelop across the west around this time, which may indicate a continued active pattern.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1120 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period with clear skies or high clouds above 10000ft after 00Z. Winds are forecast to be around 15-25 kts through much of the period. Be alert for sporadic gusts near 30-35 kts. otherwise, the main concern is low level wind shear tonight with winds around 200ft forecast to increase to 40-45 kts after 02-03Z. This could linger until 12Z, especially for KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.