textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning for the entire area today with wind gusts up to 55 mph across Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS) and northern Kit Carson counties.

- Fire Weather Watch issued for Friday for Yuma and Kit Carson counties as warm temperatures continue.

- Northerly wind gusts at or above 60 mph are possible in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage early Sunday morning. A short period of light rain/snow may accompany or immediately follow the frontal passage. Strong northerly winds may persist through Sunday afternoon.

- Expect a day-to-day warming trend next week, culminating in near record highs in the mid-upper 80s (possibly lower 90's) on Thursday March 19.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 144 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

High pressure is moving out of the area as a surface trough moves into the area from the northwest. This is resulting in winds shifting to the southwest and helping temperatures moderate some but still remaining in the mid 20s to low 30s. Mild moisture advection is also occurring as well helping get rid of the single digit dew points.

Red Flag Warning continues to remain on track for today as the 850mb jet increases from a deepening low pressure system across the northern Plains. Winds are forecast to gradually increase through the day with the peak of the winds currently appearing to start around 21Z as the low pressure system from the northern Plains starts moving south towards the area and increasing the wind fields further. GFS currently is the strongest with the fields which if mixing can be as deep as what it is forecast to be then some wind gusts of 60-65 mph be possible across Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS) and northern Kit Carson counties during the late afternoon. Confidence in this is around 20-30% of occurring however as not all guidance has this magnitude of a jet occurring in the area. With primarily west-southwest downsloping winds for today confidence is high in the temperatures in the 70s across the area today. Some guidance does try to suggest that some upper level cirrus may occur during the afternoon hours which could potentially impact how warm we actually do get however. Either way very low humidity at least in the low teens is forecast to occur leading to critical fire weather conditions across the entire forecast area. The worst conditions are forecast to be across northern portions of the area but southern portions are however as well just as concerning despite wind gusts only being 25-30 mph forecast due to significantly above normal fine fuel loading mainly for locations along and south of Highway 40. Patchy blowing dust is possible across northern portions of the area where winds are higher but with high mixing heights think that any dust would more than likely remain just as a haze. Still can't completely rule out some localized less than 1 mile visibility reductions near source regions however.

Winds across northern portions of the area are forecast to remain windy through the evening as well potentially with sustained winds of 20-25 knots continuing before subsiding as a cold front moves through which shifts winds to the north.

Friday, a cool morning is forecast across northeast portions of the area which looks to have the most effect from the overnight front. As the afternoon goes on a warm front is forecast to move in from the west where high temperatures in the low to mid 70s are forecast versus highs in the low 60s further to the east. Winds are forecast to become breezy with the warm front due to a tightening pressure gradient with wind gusts of 25-35 mph. Have opted to issue another Fire Weather Watch for Yuma and Kit Carson counties for Friday as humidity is forecast to fall into the low to mid teens with the warm front. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions for these counties lies around 60% as there is some discrepancy on the timing of the warm front. If its slower then the 3 hours will not be met. I did opt to leave Cheyenne county Colorado out of the watch due to the timing concerns and the signal for lighter winds with gusts of 15-25 mph currently forecast. If the front can progress further east then Cheyenne Colorado may need to be added along with an expansion at least into northwest Kansas.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Synoptic Overview: Operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been, and remain, in good agreement with regard to the evolution of the upper level pattern over the CONUS this weekend. Both indicate: [1] an upper level trough progged to move ashore the Pacific Northwest late Friday night will rapidly amplify and dig southeast across the northern Rockies (Sat) and Central Plains (Sat night-Sun) and [2] that an associated mid-latitude cyclone developing in the lee of the central Rockies on Saturday will track east toward Missouri (Sat night) and the Mississippi River Valley (Sun). A transition to a blocked synoptic pattern will follow, early next week.. as an expansive upper level ridge amplifies over the Desert Southwest, 4-Corners and central- southern Rockies.

Saturday: Expect further warming assoc/w southerly low-level flow on the eastern periphery of the developing lee cyclone in CO, with 850 mb temps ~20-24C and highs in the mid 70's to lower 80's. Forecast soundings via current (00Z 03/12) and recent runs of the operational GFS continue to indicate deep vertical mixing (11,000 to 13,000 ft AGL) and 25-30 knot mid-level flow across much of the area.. suggesting a potential for critical fire weather over much of the area. Forecast soundings also indicate a significant increase in upper level cloud cover (a thick veil of orographically enhanced cirrus) during the mid- late morning and afternoon hours. High overcast will, no doubt, affect diurnal heating/mixing; how-much-so, and to what extent it may mitigate critical fire weather potential, will depend upon timing (more-so if high overcast arrives earlier) and location (more-so in western portions of the area).

Saturday night-Sunday: A strong cold frontal passage is expected Sat night and early Sun morning (~06-12Z Sun), as the amplifying upper trough and associated surface low progress east of the region and a much colder airmass (850 mb temps -10C in western-central Nebraska) surges southward through the Tri-State Area. Rapid, pronounced surface pressure rises with the initial surge of cold air may foster severe (60+ mph) northerly winds with the cold frontal passage (prior to sunrise). Current (00Z 03/12) operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF suggest that strong low-level cold advection will favorably overlap with diurnal heating.. and that severe northerly winds could persist well after the frontal passage (i.e. throughout the day on Sun). Wind magnitude will depend upon a host of factors that will influence height/wind fields in the Tri-State Area, including (but not limited to) the precise evolution of the mid-latitude cyclone and the degree/extent that evaporative cooling (assoc/w upstream precip in Nebraska/Dakotas) may augment/enhance the colder airmass advecting into the region from the north. A fleeting period of strong low-level (sfc-850mb) frontogenesis in vicinity of the southward progressing cold front may foster the development of light precip (snow or rain transitioning to snow) over portions of the area Sunday morning (~09-18Z). Barring a significant change in the track/evolution of the amplifying upper wave and associated mid-latitude cyclone as depicted by 00Z 03/12 GFS and ECMWF operational guidance.. little, if any, measurable precip is presently anticipated in the Goodland CWA.

Monday-Thursday: An expansive upper level ridge amplifying over the Desert Southwest, 4-Corners and central-southern Rockies will foster dry conditions and a day-to-day warming trend next week, culminating in near-record highs in the mid-upper 80's (perhaps lower 90's) on Thursday March 19.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 337 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period. LLWS concerns end around 15Z as the nocturnal inversion breaks where then gusty to strong winds of 30-40 knots are forecast to occur. Winds are forecast to remain from the WSW before turning to the north overnight Thursday with a cold frontal passage.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ252-253. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.