textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect Wednesday for most of the Tri- State area. Relative humidity as low as 10% and wind gusts up to 45 mph are forecast to allow for critical fire weather conditions.

- Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening along a dry line located in the Colorado and Kansas border area.

- Critical fire weather conditions may return Thursday for most of the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 149 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Today, the forecast remains on track for temperatures to warm into the 80s and low 90s underneath clear skies with an upper ridge axis moving over the Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to be in place across the High Plains. This should help keep winds around 15 mph or less with few gusts due to weak flow forecast aloft. The main thing to keep an eye on today is a few dry thunderstorms with a dryline draped across the area from Arapahoe, CO to Norton, KS. If the dryline is able to help ignite some thunderstorms, they would likely form between 1-4pm MT and move quickly to the east. Severe hazards are unlikely, but wind gusts to around 50 mph and lightning are possible.

Tonight, the upper ridge is forecast to push east while an upper low pushes into the Northern Rockies. This should increase the height gradients while also deepening the surface low and increasing surface winds. The increase in winds should be modest, but enough to keep speeds near 15 mph with some gusts around 25-35 mph. With the winds helping to mix the low levels, temperatures should remain in the 50s with maybe a few 40s.

Wednesday, there is still the possibility of multiple hazards, though the forecast positioning of the dryline is lowering the chances for both dust and fire. As noted by the prior shift and in contrast to 24 hours ago, the dryline is now forecast to be between Highway 59 and Highway 385 in Colorado. There are still some ensemble members and guidance suggesting it could be as far east as Highway 83, but the consensus is generally in Eastern Colorado. With this placement, the dry air would then be confined to Eastern Colorado and be a little slower in how quickly it moves in. Still, the dry air should move in enough to lower relative humidity in the teens and single digits. Combining this with winds gusting up to 45 mph as both the surface and lower level troughs deepen, critical fire weather conditions are likely. Will slightly lower of a chance, parts of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska may be able to mix down enough dry air to have RH drop into the low teens. With all of this, have issued a Red Flag Warning for most of the area. Depending on storm activity, areas may not see relative humidity fully recover until late in the evening. As such, the warning lasts into the evening. As for the dust threat, the threat is now 20% or less that there would be mile or less visibility. The limiting factors are that the sustained winds may be too light around 20-30 mph (not allowing much dust to loft) and that the environment may be over mixed (allowing dust to just loft and not concentrate. The best area right now looks to be along and east of a line from Trenton, NE to Grinnell, KS.

As for severe weather, the forecast still has storms developing along the dryline during the mid afternoon hours. As these storms develop, they should move fairly quickly to the east. The biggest question is how much moisture will be available. The consensus is that enough dry air should be present in the low-mid levels that dry air entrainment should dissipate the storms somewhat quickly. In this case, there may be an instance or two of large hail when storms first form, but the bigger issue would be wind gusts up to 65-70 mph as storms decay. If the NAM is correct and we have more moisture, then all severe hazards are possible. Large hail up to 2.5" would be the main hazard, but wind gusts up to 65 mph and maybe a tornado or two could also form. I am currently leaning towards the consensus, so wind is the current main threat. These storms should either dissipate or move out of the area by 10pm CT.

Thursday, the area is forecast to be on the backside of the low after is pushes through during the early morning hours. The main uncertainty is how deep the low will be after it passes the area as guidance differs on whether the main trough will lift north or deepen and drag through more of the Central Plains. For now, the forecast reflects the trough deepening enough for the low to deepen just southeast of the area and keep the pressure gradient a bit tight. With this, winds of 15-25 mph from the north are forecast with gusts up to 35 mph. With the dry air moving in behind the system, relative humidity is forecast to drop into the low teens again as the day progresses. This could allow for critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon hours. Again, the thing that could change this is how deep the low gets. If the upper trough lifts north and we get more of an open surface wave, winds could be lower and critical conditions a little less likely. Overall, the chance is about 65% that we see multiple hours of critical conditions. Otherwise, temperatures are forecast to be a bit cooler in the 70s with generally clear skies. There may be a few showers or thunderstorms late in the day as the trough axis swings through, but measurable precipitation would be unlikely.

Friday, another trough axis from an upper low that is forecast to rotate around the Northern Rockies is forecast to push through the Plains. This is forecast to develop another low along the Front Range that then will push into the area late in the day. For the daytime hours, this is forecast to keep temperatures roughly the same as Thursday in the 70s with generally clear skies. Winds for most of the area are forecast to be 5-15 mph, but could reach 25 mph gust 35 mph in Eastern Colorado, closer to the forecast low. If the low does track near/through the area late in the day, some storms may develop and try and push east depending on how much dry air is in place.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 204 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The long term period appears fairly consistent. Saturday, our region is forecast in a deep troughing pattern with a strong ridge off the west coast. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast in the 60s to 70s with lows in the 30s to 40s.

Both Saturday and Sunday will bring chances for rain in the afternoon as several embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Sunday will be the best chance for thunderstorms for the entire county warning area (CWA). Convective forcing is marginal for Sunday, but with 500 J/kg of CAPE forecast for the area, there is potential for small hail if any thunderstorms are able to form.

By Monday, a deepening low pressure system off the coast of Baja California begins to move onshore placing our region in a more zonal upper level pattern. This will support continued mild temperatures, with high temperatures forecast in the 60s to 70s for Tuesday. As the low propagates east, several shortwaves will pass through our area bringing afternoon chances for precipitation. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from around 20-40% for the northwest CWA. Currently, convective potential appears low, through confidence decreases towards the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 449 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both sites with either clear skies or cloud cover above 10000ft. Winds are forecast to increase after 03Z to around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Low level wind shear is also possible, mainly for KMCK, with speeds nearing 35-40 kts at 200-400ft. After 14Z tomorrow, winds should begin to increase with speeds nearing 25 kts and gusts nearing 40 kts. There is a 20% chance of a storm between 21-00Z for KGLD.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday to midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday night for KSZ001>003- 013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday to midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday night for NEZ079>081.