textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming up today with near record to record highs Wednesday.

- Fire Weather Watch remains in effect on Wednesday for Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties in southwest Nebraska. - Cold front passes early Thursday with the potential for strong northerly winds, critical fire weather and a low chance of blowing dust.

- Low potential for active weather early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Through Tonight: Expect well above average temperatures this afternoon, with highs ranging from the upper 70's to mid 80's and overnight (Wed morning) lows in the mid 40's to lower 50's. Light winds will preclude critical fire weather conditions this afternoon.

Wed-Wed night: "Peak heat". The ongoing warming trend will culminate on Wed, with record or near-record highs (for the date) in the lower to mid 90's and overnight (Thu morning) lows in the upper 40's to upper 50's. Current and recent runs of operational guidance continue to indicate a nebulous/ill- defined MSLP-850 mb height pattern over the region. Forecast soundings via the GFS, HRRR, RAP and NAM NEST indicate ~10-20 knot NW flow within a deepening mixed layer (during the late morning) decreasing to 5-15 knots during the afternoon. Aside from a brief period of ~15-25 mph NW winds during the late morning, expect predominantly light (5-15 mph) W to NW winds during the afternoon.

Thu-Thu night: Expect an abrupt cooling trend and breezy to strong (25-35 mph G 45 mph) N to NE winds in the wake of a cold frontal passage late Thu morning through late Thu evening. High temperatures and critical fire weather potential will highly depend upon the precise timing of the frontal passage, which may occur as early as the mid-late morning or as late as early-mid afternoon. There are few discernible differences in the upper level pattern (bigger picture) depicted by recent (12Z 03/24) GFS/ECMWF operational guidance. In such setups, variations in the timing of a cold frontal passage are often indicative of upstream airmass 'meddling', e.g. precipitation / evaporative cooling altering the characteristics of an upstream airmass (and low-level height/wind fields). In this case, it appears that subtle aspects of the evolution of a weak surface to 850 mb low over the Dakotas may play a significant role in precipitation coverage/amounts over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Wed night into Thu. At any rate, expect highs ranging from the lower 70's (north of Hwy 36) to the mid-upper 80's in southern Greeley and Wichita counties with overnight (Fri morning) lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, a surface high is forecast to be in place across the area with light winds around 10 mph forecast to occur. The air mass will be in wake of Thursday's cold front will be cooler and a lot more March like with highs in the 50s across the area. Dry air will again be in place as northeasterly 850mb winds will filter in dry air allowing humidity values to fall into the teens but with the lack of wind fire weather is currently not a concern.

During the night and into the day Saturday a surface trough is forecast to move through as winds shift to the southwest and warming temperatures occur for at least western portions of the area. The majority of GEFS ensemble members favors a bit more eastern progressive warm front which may lead to a large area of critical fire weather concerns as the 850mb wind field is forecast to be 25- 35 knots. The 700mb wind field currently appears to be a little weaker which suggests to me that a stronger sustained winds is most likely. High temperatures for the day are currently in the upper 60s to mid 80s but could be another 5-10 degrees warmer if the warm front is a bit more progressive.

Sunday, warm temperatures are forecast to continue as the surface trough continues to push to the east. Winds for the day look to be a little in question due to differences in the wind fields as the GFS promotes a bit more of a westerly downsloping flow versus the ECMWF which is a bit more northwesterly flow oriented. Some continued fire weather threat may continue as well for Sunday as humidity values drop currently into the low teens for the area due to the hot temperatures. Near record high temperatures are again in jeopardy. There is a small potential for some virga/sprinkles/light showers as a 500mb vorticity maxima moves off of the Rockies along with a departing jet putting the area into the right entrance region. There is some weak moisture advection and some hints of a couple hundred J/KG of MUCAPE which may promote a dry lighting threat but currently have low confidence in this at this time. There is some hints at a potentially more active pattern developing but have concerns of some dry slotting across the region but will be something that will need to be watched for precipitation potential.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to scattered cirrus at or above ~20,000 ft AGL. Light SSW winds will become variable early this afternoon. Deep vertical mixing may foster 10-15 knot NW winds for a few hours during the mid-late afternoon, otherwise.. winds will remain light/variable through this evening, becoming SW at 10-15 knots overnight (after ~06Z Wed). Light SW winds will shift to the NW around or shortly after sunrise Wed, near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to scattered cirrus at or above ~20,000 ft AGL. Variable winds this afternoon and evening will become SSW to W overnight, remaining light. Southwesterly LLWS overnight (~05-09Z Wed) will become northwesterly prior to sunrise (09-12Z Wed). LLWS will abate by mid-late morning as low-level flow weakens and surface winds become NW at 10-15 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Wednesday: Marginal fire weather concerns. Hotter and drier with record or near-record highs in the 90's and minimum RH readings around 10%. A short (1-2 hour) period of critical fire weather is possible along/north of I-70 late Wednesday morning (~15-18Z, 9am-12p MDT), when NW winds may briefly reach ~15 mph with gusts to ~25 mph. Guidance indicates that NW winds will decrease to 10-15 mph by ~18Z (Noon MDT) and that winds will further weaken throughout the afternoon. Occasional/sporadic gusts up to ~25 mph cannot be ruled-out during the early-mid afternoon, mainly north of Hwy 36.. where a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties.

Thursday: Moderate fire weather concerns. A cold front will push southward through the area Thu morning. Breezy to strong (25-35 mph G 45 mph) N to NE winds are expected in the wake of the front, during the late morning and afternoon. Critical fire weather potential in the Goodland county warning area will highly depend upon the precise timing of the cold frontal passage. An early frontal passage means cooler temps, higher RH readings and a lower/limited potential for critical fire weather during the afternoon. A later frontal passage means warmer temps, lower RH readings and a greater/more extensive potential for critical fire weather during the afternoon. Regardless of the timing of the cold front, locations along and south of I-70 are most at-risk.

CLIMATE

Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Record high temperatures (for the date) are possible on Wednesday March 25.

================================================== Record Highs for Wed March 25 Current Forecast ================================================== Burlington.........83 in 1998 91 Goodland...........85 in 1907 92 Hill City..........88 in 1956 94 McCook.............88 in 1910 92

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NEZ079>081.