textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Friday. Coverage Friday is not forecast to be as great as today.

- Some frost is possible across northern portions of the area tonight if clouds are able to clear.

- Frost and a light freeze is currently forecast Friday night into Saturday morning. There is a 35% chance of a hard freeze as well.

- Drying out with a warming trend over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1242 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Northwest flow is ongoing across the area with cloudy skies in place and rain showers ongoing. Scatted bands of 700mb frontogenesis is in place across the area leading to brief periods of moderate rainfall. This is forecast to be the trend through the remainder of the afternoon with a gradual end from north to south. Drier air is seen moving into central Nebraska via channel 10 low level water vapor which is leading to me trim rain chances a little sooner especially north of the Interstate. Most if not all of the rain is forecast to be over by mid evening with southern parts of the area seeing some lingering showers through 06Z.

Tonight, temperatures are forecast to fall into the low to mid 30s across the area as high pressure pushes in from the north and winds go light and variable. This does bring concern for frost and light freezes especially for north and northeast portions of the forecast area. The one variable that is keeping my confidence lower on frost developing is that some low and mid level clouds are forecast to develop. I did contemplate a Frost Advisory but opted not to due to the cloud cover concerns. We will also have to keep an eye on some fog potential as well currently thinking across northeast portions of the area such as Decatur, Sheridan, Gove and Norton counties where some of the moisture may be able to pool up. The entire area may also have a threat for patchy fog if the rain if the clouds were to clear quicker due to the moist boundary layer and the light winds. Confidence is not high enough at this time to put into the forecast but will need to be monitored.

Friday, north-northwest synoptic flow is forecast to be present over the area. Clouds are forecast to return to most of the area a 500mb vorticity maxima moves through the area associated with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. Showers and perhaps some isolated storms are forecast to develop as this lift moves into the area, but coverage will not be as great as it has been the past few days. Severe weather is not anticipated with any storms due to minimal CAPE values Friday but similar to what occurred on Wednesday perhaps some wind gusts of 40-50 mph may be possible. Drier air is forecast to push in from the north behind the shower and storm potential. Mixing height dew points are forecast to fall into the mid to upper teens across northwest portions of the area. With mixing heights around 10,000 feet forecast soundings suggests that some gusts around 25 mph may be possible as humidity falls into the mid to upper teens. Can't rule out an hour or two of critical fire weather conditions for Yuma and Dundy counties during the late afternoon but due to the recentness of the rainfall should help put a brief damper to extreme fire spread potential.

Friday night and into Saturday, high pressure is forecast to move into the area and again clear out clouds and lead to light and variable winds. This along with the lower dew points falling into the 20s does bring freeze and frost concerns as lows are currently forecast to fall into the low 30s. Do have concern for some hard freeze potential as well if radiational cooling is stronger than currently anticipated. 13Z NBM data shows a 35% chance for temperatures of 28 degrees or less across most of the area with the exception being the east and the south. A surface trough however is forecast to move into the west during the morning hours which would shift winds and have them become more westerly, depending on the time this occurs could help prevent the hard freeze potential.

The surface trough is forecast to bring back warmer temperatures to the area Saturday as highs in the 70s return. However with the warmer temperatures and still lingering low dew points humidity is forecast to fall back into the mid to upper teens again. At this time as the CWA should be in the axis of the surface trough winds should remain on the lighter side around 10 mph sustained with some gusts around 20 mph based on current forecast soundings and typical early May mixing. Due to this lack of wind, fire weather is not a concern at this time.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Sunday, a Rex blocking pattern is forecast to develop on the west coast with a ridge near the Canadian border and a low pressure system near California. Expect pleasant conditions for our county warning area (CWA) with sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 70s to 80s. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low to mid teens. Sustained winds will be around 10-15 mph with occasional afternoon gusts up to 25 mph possible. The highest wind gusts do not coincide with the lowest RH's of the day, so fire weather concerns remain limited.

As the Rex block begins to traverse east, west-southwesterly flow develops over the region. We will see fairly consistent weather for the remainder of the forecast period. Expect mild temperatures in the 70s and potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as several shortwaves traverse through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-60% Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Instability is weak for our area, so major impacts are not expected, but if thunderstorms are able to form, we could see some small hail. GEFS Ensemble members differ on when this pattern will move on, but it will likely move on after Tuesday.

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, a cold front is expected to move through the region bring cooler conditions with high temperatures forecast in the 60s with lows in the 30s. We transition to a more zonal pattern for the remainder of the forecast period, so no precipitation is expected Wednesday evening and Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 524 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both sites. That being said, there is about 25% chance that fog forms between 06Z-14Z. If fog does form, it may be dense with visibility near a quarter of a mile. Also, frost develop is possible through the night hours, especially at KMCK. Winds should be light through the night, before increasing to around 10-15 kts from the north close to 18Z tomorrow.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.