textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Overnight showers and isolated storms are forecast tonight; severe weather is not expected.

- A severe storm or two is possible Monday afternoon along and south of Interstate 70. Hail around 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds around 60 mph are the primary hazards.

- Warming trend this week as Wednesday's high temperatures may get to above 100 degrees and may pose a fire weather threat.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest flow is currently in place across the region along with fairly thick mid to upper level clouds as moisture around 700-500 mb is in place from a shortwave from the Rockies. The cloud cover is forecast to slowly burn off through the afternoon. Cooler temperatures remain forecast as the area is in wake of yesterday's cold front and the lingering cloud cover through the day as high temperatures are forecast to remain in the 60s to 70s along with light winds as an inverted surface trough is in place across the area. This evening the shortwave from the Rockies is forecast to move onto the Plains along with some additional 700mb vorticity increasing through around 03Z. Showers are forecast to develop along the Palmer Divide and spread into the western portions of the CWA this evening. Storms are currently not forecast but a rogue lightning strike can't be completely ruled out due to around 50 j/kg of CAPE currently being depicted in guidance. Dew point depressions are forecast to remain around 15-20 degrees but since the better forcing is located around 700mb think this should be enough for some light rainfall to reach the surface. Most likely scenario is that most will see a few hundredths of an inch of rain with pockets of a couple tenths. Scattered showers are forecast to continue through the majority of the night as weak 300K isentropic ascent continues to remain in place.

Monday, a large low pressure system is forecast to be in place across much of the Great Lakes region, resulting in northwest flow continuing for the Tri-State area. Temperatures are forecast to warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s across the forecast area as western CONUS ridging begins to have an influence on the Plains. A surface convergence boundary/dry line is forecast to set up south of I-70 during the afternoon hours and may be the focus for some thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours as a weak shortwave traverses across the area within the northwest flow. Confidence is still a little low (10%) in if these storms will initiate and how far south of I70 they will develop, but it seems like guidance has been trending further north with this boundary over the past few runs. Some guidance also has storms developing as early as 2pm MT which not totally buying at this point due to the speed of the shortwave but think late afternoon/early evening seems the most likely. Despite not being currently outlooked should these storms develop there should be some severe threat with them with hail up to ping pong ball size. If storms can remain discrete enough and remain sustained then the potential is there for hail as large as tennis balls along and south of Highway 40 where the higher surface to equilibrium level bulk shear lies with the 15Z RAP depicting this being around 50 knots. 41 knots of 0-6 shear and 2100 j/kg of MUCAPE are currently being depicted by guidance. Lapse rates may be the lacking feature for any severe threat with around 7.0 c/km currently being depicted by guidance. Additional overnight showers and storms may be possible as well as the northern extent of Mucape boundary interacts with an advancing 250mb jet and cold front at the surface ; northeastern portions of the area are currently favored. Severe weather would be unlikely with that activity due to minimal CAPE being in place. Moisture advection is forecast to occur through the night Monday and into Tuesday morning. Fog potential may be possible along and south of Interstate 70 with dense fog potential currently appearing to be on the table due to high surface to 1km mixing ration differences. There is discrepancies with guidance on the quality of the moisture advection at this time so will leave fog out of the forecast for now.

Similar synoptic flow is forecast Tuesday across the area. The ridge across the western CONUS is forecast to continue to expand and amplify as even warmer temperatures that Tuesday are forecast to occur with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Tuesday currently looks dry across the area with drier air in place and moisture shunted down into southern Kansas. Light winds are currently forecast at the surface but a 700mb jet may be able to bring down higher wind gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoon hours with mixing heights of 8000-10000 feet currently forecast. Due to this not concerned at this time about fire weather despite the lower humidity due to the warm temperatures as winds are forecast to be marginal at best. Tuesday night a surface trough is forecast to move through the area and increase winds as the 850mb jet increases. Some pressure rises is seen as well which should be able to help mix down the winds through the nocturnal inversion.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The upper pattern looks to have a ridge off the Pacific-Northwest and a Hudson Bay Low on Wednesday. The trough axis from the low does extend down into the northern part of the County Warning Area (CWA). Also over the region is a jet streak that does extend down to around 700mb. As we move on though the week and into the weekend the pattern overall stays the same with the ridge from the west and low to the northeast. There does look to be some shortwave troughs the look to come through on the weekend that may bring higher precipitations.

Wednesday looks to have the most weather activity. The main driving factor for this event will be a low pressure system off to our north- northwest. There will be two fronts associated with this low. A potential dryline and cold front. The high temperatures, they are currently forecast to be in the low 100s. The main locations that will see temperature above 100 will be south of I-70 and east KS Hwy 25. Guidance is suggesting there is about a 20-50% chance of exceeding 100 degrees. The reasonable maximum that could be seen is around 105 degrees. As for low temperatures they are forecast to be around 60-70 degrees and these are showing to be sightly above normal. The EFI SOT shows the there about a 0.5-0.8 for the northern portions of the CWA.

Moving to Fire Weather, as mentioned before the low off to the north- northeast will have a dryline. The sustained winds look to be from the west in the early morning then shifting to coming from the northeast during the afternoon. The main peak sustained winds look to be in the 20-35 mph. The gusts however look to be in the range of 35-45 mph. The main focus for the gusts is mainly over the eastern Colorado counties. However please refer to the Wind and Dust section for the uncertainty with the wind. Moving to the Relative Humidity (RH) values, the main uncertainty with how low they drop is how quickly the dryline moves through. If the dryline moves through quicker then the majority of the CWA will see values in the 10-16% with the lowest values in the single digits in the eastern Colorado counties. If the dryline moves slowly through the CWA then mainly the eastern Colorado counties will see the lower RH values less then 15%. Looking at GFDI, over the past few forecasts have steadily increased in values. Currently they are in the 50+ range and peak values 65+ in Yuma and Kit Carson Counties. This would lead to Very High to Extreme fore growth. The signal is there for at least Elevated Fire Weather Conditions, and if the ingredients line up at the same time we could see Critical Fire Weather for the eastern Colorado. Currently 30-40% that conditions will meet Red Flag Criteria at some point in the day.

There is a low end wind threat for Wednesday. Revisiting the upper level pattern again, there is the jet streak over the northern parts of the CWA. The highest winds that could mix down from 600-700mb level are around 50-55 kts. The main timing for the higher winds would mainly be in the early morning to midday hours. The main question is will there be an inversion near the surface. Guidance is indication there potentially for either a inversion or there won't be one. If there is an inversion the 50-55 knot winds wont mix down. For dust potential then, if we see localized gusts to mix down then we could see blowing dust with reduced visibility. If there is not an inversion then, the we could see those winds mix down. If that is the case then the dust threat would be more localized plumes and reducing visibility down to a mile and reducing air quality.

Shower/Storm Potential, is low but if the dryline decides to moves slowly then the dryline would be the main lifting factor for the showers. Currently on the moist side of the line, there is around 1000-2500 J/kg of CAPE along with 7-9 C/km 700-500mb Lapse Rates. This would be enough to promote storm/shower development. However this threat does look to be fairly low as the majority of Guidance is showing the dryline is well east of the CWA.

To summarize, there still is fair amount of uncertainty with the timing of this system. For the fire concerns, whether the western parts of the CWA sees the Elevated or Critical fire weather is how quickly the dryline moves through. For Wind and Dust the main concern is will there be an inversion is present or not. For storm/shower potential is very dependent on if the dryline moves through slower or quicker. Overall, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty but this around four days out and more can change.

For the extended part of the week. Thursday through Saturday temperatures look to be in the mid 80s to high 90s. Thursday does have a cool down, as there is a cold front moving into very late Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning from the system from Wednesday. This cold front should bring the highs down to the mid 80s. The winds and gusts both show some signs of there being gusts up to 30 mph but it varies day to day. Friday is currently showing a signal for it possibly having high winds. Both the NBM and LREF are showing about a 30-40% of seeing at least more than 30 mph. As for precipation chances, Saturday has the strongest signal for showers/storms. Saturday's SFC-CAPE values, from Guidance, are around the 1000-1500 J/kg for the mean. The 90th percentile for both the NBM and LREF are around the 1500-2500 J/kg range. These values would be supportive of showers/storms. NCAR AI NWP Convective Hazard Forecast does have some forecasts showing a 5-30% chance for severe hazards. Granted this is still about a week away and a fair amount can change.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 407 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions with light and variable winds are forecast to begin the TAF period at KGLD and KMCK. Beginning at 05Z and ending around 09Z, there is around a 30% chance of thunderstorms resulting in MVFR conditions at both terminals. There is a 20% chance scattered showers/storms could still be ongoing after this PROB30. Will update as needed for the 06Z TAFs. Late morning, a wind shift to the SSW is expected with winds around 12 kts and continue throughout the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.