textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect dry conditions and above normal temperatures through the work week, hottest on Thursday and Friday when highs are forecast to reach the 90's.

- Marginally critical fire weather conditions possible over portions of the area throughout the work week. At this time, relatively light winds (below ~25 mph) appear to be the main limiting factor.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 315 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Through Tonight: Expect cooler temperatures (compared to Saturday) with highs in the mid 60's to lower 70's and light/variable winds. Diurnal Cumulus, buoyed by weak/shallow instability (~50-100 J/kg mlcape in the lowest 10,000 ft AGL) could conceivably support a few brief, isolated sprinkles this afternoon. However, with an LCL (lifted condensation layer) ~5,000 ft AGL, an equilibrium level (EL) ~10,000 ft AGL and LCL to EL wetbulb temperatures warmer than -5C (i.e. not in the ice nucleation zone), updrafts will be inefficient at producing precipitation, so.. sprinkles might be a stretch. Expect a clearing trend late this aft-eve with overnight (Mon morning) lows ~38-45F.

Mon-Mon night: An amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and southern-central Rockies/High Plains will foster warmer and drier conditions with highs ~82-87F and minimum RH readings ~15-20%, possibly lower (10-15%) in northeast CO (mainly in Yuma County). Southwesterly low-level flow will increase to 30-35 knots in response to surface pressure falls / lee trough development in CO prior to sunrise. Forecast soundings indicate that nocturnally enhanced low-level flow will decrease to 20-25 knots within a few hours after sunrise (around the onset of diurnal heating/mixing) and further decrease to ~15-23 knots during the afternoon, as the mixed- layer deepens to 7,000 to 9,000 feet AGL. Marginally critical fire weather conditions are possible, mainly north of I-70 where forecast soundings suggest that slightly stronger SW flow may be present.. and SW winds ~15-20 mph will gust to ~25 mph during the afternoon. Expect warmer overnight (Tue morning) lows in the upper 40's to mid 50's.

Tue-Tue night: Surface pressure rises in the lee of the northern Rockies.. associated with height rises/synoptic subsidence on the western periphery of a vigorous upper level wave digging southeastward from Manitoba to the Upper Midwest.. will drive an inverted surface ridge southward into the Central Plains around sunrise Tue.. the leading edge of which will manifest as an abrupt NNE-NE wind shift and modest effective cold frontal passage. Forecast soundings indicate ~30 knot NNE low-level flow in the immediate wake of the frontal passage, suggesting sustained winds ~20-30 mph w/gusts to 35-40 mph for a short (1-3 hour) period during the mid-late morning. Winds will steadily weaken throughout the afternoon, decreasing to 15-20 mph by ~21Z/3p MDT and 10-15 mph by ~23Z/5 pm MDT. Marginally critical fire weather conditions are possible, mainly east and south of Goodland during the early-mid afternoon.. when and where breezy NNE-NE winds may briefly overlap with RH readings ~15-20%. Expect highs ~78-86F (slightly cooler than Monday).. and overnight (Wed morning) lows in the mid-upper 40's.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 337 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

***Synopsis***

Ridging is favored to be moving in overhead at 500-mb Wednesday morning, associated with southerly surface flow across the forecast area. As this occurs, troughing looks to move in across the West Coast. There is a fair amount of uncertainty with this feature, specifically regarding how quickly it will make its way toward the forecast region. As such, it is unclear how long ridging will remain across the forecast region, though warm and dry conditions would be favored as long as it is in place. Once the trough reaches the area, a cold front along with wetter conditions are possible. Model guidance is largely divergent by Saturday morning, except that ensembles indicate troughing may reestablish itself across the West Coast, lasting through the end of the period.

***Wednesday***

Ridging with southerly flow on Wednesday would appear to favor warmer conditions, with highs currently forecast in the low to mid- 80s. Dry conditions are also possible, with relative humidities (RH) forecast primarily in the upper-teens to mid-20s, but some isolated areas of mid-teen RH values across portions of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. Briefly critical fire weather conditions may be possible during the mid to late-afternoon hours, and would be dependent on how strong the winds can become, as LREF guidance suggests less than a 10% chance for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard across most of the forecast region. According to the NBM, the highest gusts are forecast to occur in Eastern Colorado, in the 40-45 mph range. While these gusts may be slightly overestimated, they may be able to overcome forecast RH values in the 20s if they can be experienced. Gusts are favored to decrease into the 25-30 mph range moving into Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas. While RH looks to drop into the teens across this zone, critical fire weather is forecast to remain marginal at best Wednesday afternoon across the CWA. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is low, around 5%.

***Thursday/Friday***

The forecast becomes a little more uncertain on Thursday and Friday regarding the eastward propagation of a trough from the Western United States. Thursday morning, GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean- spread guidance shows large amounts of spread across portions of the California Coast and Montana. This would be associated with timing issues regarding how quickly the feature will move. Essentially, the longer it takes for this feature to reach the forecast region, the longer upper-level ridging would be allowed to remain in place. Warm, dry conditions would be allowed to persist under this pattern. However, the approaching trough would be associated with a cold front, and potentially some precipitation. About two thirds to three quarters of LREF members show 500-mb heights on the higher end across Central Montana Thursday morning, which would correspond to the slower solution. This is reflected in forecast guidance showing high temperatures in the upper-80s to mid-90s Thursday afternoon, with RH values in the mid to upper-teens. Wind gusts forecast as high as 40 mph may implicate critical fire weather conditions Thursday. NBM guidance suggests that areas along and east of US-83 have the greatest chances for seeing gusts that meet critical fire weather criteria, with as high as an 80% chance in Norton and Graham Counties in Kansas. However, most areas across the CWA have a 25% chance or less to see RH values that meet criteria for the hazard. Similar conditions may be experienced on Friday if the trough remains far enough west of the forecast region, though current guidance places high temperatures for Friday in the low-80s to low- 90s, a little lower than Thursday. This may be associated with the trough and cold front moving into the area. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed either day is around 5%.

***Saturday/Sunday***

Model guidance diverges even more significantly by Saturday, though ensembles are consistent on troughing reestablishing itself across the Western United States. Under such a scenario, warm and wet conditions would be possible across the CWA. While forecast guidance suggests high temperatures in the 80s and lower-90s Saturday, and upper-70s to mid-80s Sunday, NBM 75th percentile temperatures across the area both days are in the upper-80s to mid- 90s, which would be consistent with troughing to the west. A slight chance (less than 25%) exists for showers during this period as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 456 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. Broken ceilings ~5,000 to 8,000 ft AGL will scatter and dissipate late this afternoon. Light (5-10 knot) winds will persist through tonight, becoming SSW to SW by sunrise Monday. SW winds will increase to 15-20 knots a few hours after sunrise (14-15Z Mon) and persist into the afternoon..

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.