textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Exceptionally dry conditions, light winds and a warming trend through Tuesday.

- For Wednesday and Thursday there is the potential for a multi hazard system. The main concerns are severe storms, fire weather, and blowing dust.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Synoptic Overview: An amplifying upper level ridge over the Intermountain West (today) will build eastward across the Rockies (tonight) and Central Plains (Mon-Tue).

Expect mostly clear skies, light winds and a day-to-day warming trend as the aforementioned ridge builds eastward over the Rockies and Central Plains. In the lower levels, a broad diurnally waxing/waning lee trough will persist over eastern Colorado and portions of far northwest Kansas, where a baggy MSLP to 850 mb height gradient and weak low/mid-level flow will maintain light winds over most[*] or all of the Goodland CWA, despite deep vertical mixing up to ~12,000 ft AGL. Expect highs in the 70's today, lower-mid 80's on Monday and mid-upper 80's to near ~90F on Tuesday.

[*] There is a low, ~30%, chance that breezy /20-30 mph/ SW winds and locally critical fire weather conditions could impinge upon far eastern portions of the Goodland CWA Monday afternoon, similar to Wichita County today, albeit mainly along/east of Hwy 283 in Graham/Norton counties. Whether or not the western extent of breezy SW winds overlaps with a small fraction (~15 miles) of the Goodland CWA will be a direct function of the precise location and orientation of the diurnally waxing/waning lee trough.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Wednesday and Thursday there is a trough over the west coast that will move into the CWA along with a surface low. Guidance is also showing high confidence in there being a dryline associated with this system. There are two concerns that will be associated with this dryline. High temperatures look to be in the mid 80s to low 90s along with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

For the moist side of the of the dryline. PoPs show percentages of 10-25 with the highest percentages in southern Nebraska. There is a potential for severe weather with forecast dew points in the range of 40-50 degrees along with lapse rates of 8-9 C/km could support a few storms. As for timing the greatest chance to see storms are Wednesday afternoon into the night.

For the dry side of the dryline there is a fire weather concern. RH values are in the lower teens and even reaching single digits for eastern Colorado. Wind gusts look to be in the 20-45 mph range mainly out of the south. The peak values for Wednesday look to be in the afternoon into the night. There is the potential for critical fire weather. For the eastern colorado counties there is a 60-90% chance of exceeding 25 mph and a 20-35% chance of exceeding 40 mph. Looking at the GDFI values the begin Wednesday morning around 30-50 the grow to up to 130 around 21z then decreasing around 5z Thursday. These conditions show signs of supporting explosive fire growth along with the wind gusts and RH vales support fire weather being met on Wednesday and Thursday. One other potential hazard we could see is localized blowing dust. Guidance is showing there being winds and lower level lapse rate that promote blowing dust. However upper level lapse rates are higher which are showing a sign of the dust mixing out.

One very important thing to note is there is high uncertainty of the timing and the location of this system. Over the past few days guidance has been showing uncertainty on if the Low deepens, moves quicker, or stalls. This will alter the location of the dryline and the conditions that come with it. Given this is 4-5 days out for the forecast period a good amount can continue to change.

For the extended part of the forecast, Friday through Sunday's set up is still dependent on how the system on Wednesday and Thursday pans out. If the previous system moves out quicker and the low of the west coast continues to deepen then changes in precipitation and timing will occur. For Friday precipitation chances return with the PoPs being in the 20-50% for the majority of the CWA in the afternoon. For temperatures the highs look to be in the 60s and lows in the 30s-40s. Wind gusts look to be in the 20-30 mph range.

Saturday looks very similar to Friday with highs in the low 50s to mid 60s with lows in the low 30s. Winds look to be similar with gusts peaking around 20-30 mph. PoPs also show some signs of there being precipitation with values staying in the 20-50% range for majority of the CWA from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. The high and low temperatures staying around the range as Friday and Saturday. One thing to keep an eye on is the precipitation chances for Saturday/Sunday occur when temperatures look to be in the 30-40 degree range. Given this is 6-7 days out there is still uncertainty but still good to see signs of seeing moisture for the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 415 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

GLD: Excellent aviation conditions. VFR conditions and light/ variable winds will rule through the majority of the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to occasional wisps of cirrus at or above ~20 KFT AGL. Winds will become S or SSW at ~7-12 knots by early afternoon and persist through sunset Monday evening.

MCK: Excellent aviation conditions. VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to occasional wisps of cirrus at or above ~20 KFT AGL. Light/variable winds will prevail this afternoon. Winds will shift to the E and modestly increase to 8-13 knots by sunset (01-02Z) and persist into the evening, then become variable again overnight. Light/ variable winds will shift to the S and modestly increase to ~7-12 knots during the early-mid afternoon and persist through sunset Monday evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.