textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated severe storm is possible over portions of northwest KS and southwest NE late this aft-eve, mainly north and east of Colby, KS between 6-11 pm CDT. Quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph are the primary threats, should storms develop.

- Breezy conditions are expected through mid next week.

- Monday will be hot ahead of a cold front that brings much cooler conditions for Tuesday-Wednesday. Portions of the area may see lows dip into the upper 40s Wednesday morning.

- Scattered strong storms may develop along this front Monday evening. Gusty winds would be the primary threat.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Current mid-level water vapor and 500 mb analysis shows our region in a weak northwest flow with weak shortwave on the northern edge of the county warning area (CWA). Surface analysis shows a southwest to northeast oriented dryline has set up on the western edge of the CWA. Compared to yesterday's forecast, the dryline has set up further west than models originally had it. This will greatly impact our storm chances for this afternoon. HREF ensemble paintballs only have one member showing storms initiate around 5 pm CDT along a line from Sherman County to Red Willow. If storms manage to form, they are expected to be pop-up nature and last through around midnight.

Hazard wise, main concerns with storms will be hail around an inch and wind gusts around 60 mph. A stronger or collapsing storm could produce wind gusts around 70 mph. The environment is moderately unstable east of the Colorado/Kansas border with around 2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE and around 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. Model soundings are showing a fairly dry mid-layer with 0-1 km shear less than 10 and 0- 3 km shear less than 20. These, along with general lack of forcing, will likely be the limiting factors in storm development and longevity. Lapse rates are steep with mid and lower levels around 7- 8 C/km, so if a storm can sustain itself despite the weaker shear environment, up to 2 inch hail could occur.

For Saturday, conditions are forecast to be cooler due to an early morning cold frontal passage from the north. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s. The cold front is expected to linger in the area, so conditions will be breezy with gusts around 25 mph possible. Winds will generally be from the east.

Overnight into Sunday, a strong jet streak is forecast to set up over the CWA. This will likely mix down stronger winds to the surface creating a windy day for the Tri-State area. Winds are expected to pick up in the afternoon with gusts of 20-30 mph possible for the eastern CWA and gusts up to 40 for the western CWA. Embedded shortwaves passages will give a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Storms are expected to be sub-severe due to lack of upper-level forcing and weak shear.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 257 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The new work week will start off on the hot and breezy side as the area remains sandwiched between a potent (but progressive) shortwave trough over the northern Rockies and a strong upper ridge over the Deep South. Deepening lee troughing, in response to the N Rockies trough, will lead to moderately breezy southerly winds and efficient mixing of an impressive late summer low level thermal ridge. Latest NBM blend calls for high temperatures in the 90s across the entire area. Far S/SE zones may be even warmer given exceedance values of 100 degrees in the 15-25 percent range. Another caveat to keep an eye on will be the timing/placement of a cold front associated with aforementioned trough. General consensus is that this front should remain near or just N of the KS/NE state line through peak heating, but any minor trends one way or another could lead to forecast changes in these areas. Fire weather shouldn't become a concern as latest RH forecasts generally keep values at or above 25%. Also, wind speeds may actually decrease through the afternoon (esp. central and northern zones) with closer proximity to the approaching cold front.

Main question/potential weather impact for Monday evening and overnight will be if deep convection can develop along the cold front. If storms can indeed form, conceptual model would support high-based convection with potential to tap into hot/deeply mixed boundary layer (inverted-v profiles) and produce strong/severe wind gusts. Moderately steep mid level lapse rates (~7.5 C/km), and hints of locally enhanced deep layer shear immediately along the boundary (35-45kts?) could also support a large hail threat. It's not a forgone conclusion that everyone will see storms/rain, though, as moisture/instability will be lacking (at least initially) and best upper forcing will slide across the Dakotas...but this does look to be our next best chance for precipitation (60-80%).

Tuesday will be significantly cooler behind the front as latest ensembles show 25th to 75th percentile temperatures mainly in the 70s. Exception could be the far S/SE that still manage to warm into the lower 80s. Regardless...solid 20-25 degrees cooler than Monday. Cooler temperatures will also come with a refreshing NE breeze. With drier air may come a brief taste of 40s for esp. N/NW zones Wednesday AM. High pressure nosing in from the N. Plains should keep mild temperatures going through midweek, but would expect some gradual air mass modification back to near or just above normal for the end of the week.

Extended periods are littered with off an on POPs, though confidence in any given period getting precipitation is low. The area will be located on the western side of a flattened upper ridge that's centered over the Deep South. This will promote advection of monsoonal upper moisture and at least a few weak perturbations in SW upper flow. These could support development of late afternoon convection along the Front Range that shifts E during the evening, but again, confidence is low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 425 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Low confidence (<10%) of pop-up storms affecting both terminals Friday evening until around midnight. Winds will generally be out of the south around 10 knots until early Saturday morning when a cold front moves through the area from the north. The front will shift the winds to generally out of the northeast and increase winds to around 15-20 knots. KMCK could see higher wind gusts around 25 knots. Winds will shift again to mainly out of the east towards the end of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.