textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms again this evening with a low probability, less than 20%, of wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday night with areas of 1-3" possible in northwest Kansas.

- Above normal temperatures today, cooling to near normal on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current observations have the area in southwest flow aloft as we are between broad ridging to the southeast and broad troughing to the northwest. Near the surface, we have the low pressure system over most of the area with the front roughly around a line from Sharon Springs, KS to Norton, KS. For areas north of the front, winds are from the north at 10-15 mph with gusts around 20-25 mph. Highs are forecast to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s with any lingering showers fading by the early afternoon. Those south of the front have winds roughly from the south/southwest at 15 gust 25-30 mph. Their high temperatures should still reach the upper 90s and maybe even lower 100s.

As we get into the afternoon and evening hours, storms should fire up along the frontal boundary around 2-5pm MT, 3-6pm CT. With the frontal boundary likely to have moved farther south from its current position, there is a chance that the area avoids this first round of storms. Otherwise, everyone south of the aforementioned current placement of the front would likely see storms during the afternoon. These initial storms would be unlikely to be sub-severe, with MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and 20-30 kts of 0-6km shear. As we go into the evening, the storm motion may carry storms north into the area. There is also the chance that additional storms move in from the west as storms develop along the Front Range while an upper trough axis swings through the region. Should these storms cluster and move far enough east, they should push through after about 8pm MT from west to east. On top of posing a small severe threat with better MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 30-40 kts, this could also lead to a flooding threat if the cluster combines with storms that formed along the front. In regards to the severe threat, currently thinking hail around an inch in diameter and 65 mph wind gusts are the likely hazards. This cluster/grouping of storms would then likely impact areas around and south of I-70 through most of the evening and early overnight hours. The exception is if the front pulls to far south and causes everything to miss the area. Currently, there is about a 65% chance we see this cluster move through the area. Temperatures tonight will likely hove in the 60s and 70s with the showers and storms in the area.

Tomorrow, the upper pattern is forecast to go more zonal as the troughing becomes broad to the north and the ridge is broad over the south. With the surface low and front likely well south of the area, a slightly colder air mass should be in place over the area and keep temperatures more in the 80s. A few 90s are possible south of Highway 40. Winds should be from the north at 10-15 mph with gusts around 20-25 mph. Storm chances are much lower and limited to south of Highway 40 with much of the forcing south of the area. There may be some storms that move in from the west as well if an upper trough axis doesn't swing too far south. Should a storm move into the area, it will likely be sub-severe like the prior few days. May see a marginal severe storm with a wind gust around 60 mph.

Thursday, the upper flow is forecast to be zonal again with conditions mostly similar to Wednesday. The main difference will be a developing low pressure in the Northern High Plains will shift winds to out of the south at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Otherwise, temperatures should again warm into the 80s. Shower and storm chances are currently forecast to be less than 15% with no clear forcing mechanism over or near the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Starting Friday, elongated zonal flow over Northern CONUS with a possibility of two low pressure systems moving over the U.S. and Canadian border over the weekend and early next week. This will allow possible chances for afternoon showers from embedded shortwave troughs and cooler temperatures as cold fronts could pass by. On Friday night and into Saturday morning, there is high confidence (75%) that showers will be north of I-70. However, there is low to medium confidence (25-40%) that this will be severe as the environment conditions will be unfavorable as wind shear will be disorganized and weak. The main potential hazard will be small hail as there is sufficient CAPE over 1000 J/kg and a high lapse rate.

Over the weekend, there is low confidence (25%) for chances of severe weather due to the lack of forcing. Saturday night, chances for storms will be relatively low, but will increase at midnight near US 283. The main potential conditions of interest are heavy rain and small hail. Precipitable water (PWats) is forecast to be in 1.55 inches, CAPE above 1200 J/kg, and a "low" melting layer below 16,000 feet. On Sunday, storms are possible again in the evening hours with chances ranging from 20 to 60%. For now, the better chances favor the northern half of the area.

On Monday and Tuesday, the chances for storms continue as a potential upper trough slices through the Northern U.S. While there is variability on when the trough moves through the area, storms are possible each day in the evening. Which ever day the trough moves through will likely have a chance for severe weather.

Temperatures will be fairly consistent Friday with highs in the mid 90s and then drop into the low 80s Saturday as the overnight cold front comes through. There is medium to high confidence (50-70%) that afternoon temperatures will stay in the 80s for the remainder of the period as there is a large spread of 10F degrees within the guidance that could put temperatures in the upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures will finally start to fall from the summer heat.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds should remain roughly from the north when storms aren't around. Sustained speeds should be around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts until about 01-04Z, then speeds will likely lower to around 5-10 kts. Keep an eye out for storms as early as 00Z. Storm chances favor south of both sites, but storms will be possible through 12Z, especially at KGLD. If a storm makes it, be alert for wind gusts above 40 mph and frequent lightning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.