textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM MST today.

- A warming trend will follow, this afternoon through midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

Today-Tonight: The ongoing cold snap ends today as ~1045 mb high pressure shifts southward into the Southern Plains and modest SW to WSW low-level return flow initiates a warming trend in the lee of the central Rockies. Expect highs ranging from the lower 30's to lower 40's, coldest in areas with snow cover. Forecast soundings suggest that SW winds could potentially gust to ~25 mph this afternoon, though.. shallow vertical mixing and a near-surface temperature inversion (where snow cover is present) may impede/limit gust potential, keeping winds in the ~10-15 mph range. WSW winds will gradually veer to the W this evening and WNW overnight, remaining light. Expect overnight lows ranging from the single digits to teens, coldest in areas with snow cover.

Tue-Tue night: With the Tri-State Area situated downstream of a pronounced ridge over the Intermountain West and Pacific NW and upstream of broad cyclonic flow /troughing/ aloft over the eastern CONUS.. a WNW-NW flow aloft regime will persist in the lee of the Rockies. Shortwave energy moving ashore the Pacific NW (today) will dig SE-SSE through the central Rockies Tue morning. Broken/overcast upper level cloud cover preceding and accompanying the aforementioned wave, mainly in eastern CO, will abate during the afternoon as the wave progresses SE into the Southern Plains. In the lower levels, guidance indicates that an ill-defined MSLP to 850 mb height gradient will be present through the majority of the day, suggesting that winds may predominantly be variable. Light southerly return flow will follow, late Tue aft into Tue night, between a baggy lee trough in CO and ~1032 mb high pressure over central-eastern KS. Expect highs ranging from the mid 30's to mid 40's, coldest in areas with lingering snow cover (Graham, Sheridan, Logan and Gove counties) and overnight (Wed morning) lows in the teens. GFS forecast soundings suggest a potential for fog and/or low stratus development Tue evening into Tue night, mainly along and east of Hwy 283 where snow cover (and increased low-level moisture from snow-melt) may still be present.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1254 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

Wednesday continues to be forecast to be the warmest day as the upper ridge is forecast to move over the area while an embedded shortwave helps low pressure develop along the Front Range, allowing for low level southwesterly flow. Highs are forecast to reach the low 50s for most of the area underneath sunny skies. Should any snow linger for southeastern parts of the area, those locales would see highs more in the 40s.

Thursday and Friday, an upper low over the Great Lakes region is forecast to swing a trough axis through the Plains and bring a cold front through the area. This should cool temperatures with highs forecast to range from the 20s in the east (closer to the center of the cold air mas) and 40s to the west. Lows are currently forecast to be in the teens, with single digits possible if the high center shifts west as some ensemble guidance suggests. As a whole, guidance is in much better agreement with the timing and overall path of the features which is leading to higher confidence in the forecast. But still, there are some ensemble members as alluded to above that are giving us a much colder and drier air mass. If the colder solution pans out, negative wind chills could return Friday and Saturday morning.

In regards to precipitation with this system, the better agreement has also led to better agreement that the air should saturate as these systems move through. Still, we will likely be dry near the surface which would keep precipitation chances limited. We should see a prolonged period of cloud cover and even flurries due to the higher level saturation. But the lack of features when we are forecast to be most saturated suggests we won't have much lift and just have light snow at best. This is reflected in guidance QPF forecasts ranging from 0.01 to 0.2. So unless we get much colder (higher SLRs) or can get one of the systems to slow near the area and provide better lift, snow will likely remain below a few inches and have little to no impacts. Will have to keep an eye on the winds though as while the current forecast keeps winds around or below 15 mph, guidance suggesting that the surface pressure field should morph quite a bit may allow for a scenario where we briefly have a tight gradient and stronger winds. Blowing snow may then be a concern.

Going into the late weekend and early next week, we are forecast to stay in the northwest flow aloft. That being said, it is becoming more likely that we move more under the upper ridge's influence and would see warmer temperatures. The current forecast is for highs in the 50s, but we could see 60s if we don't get any shortwaves moving through until later next week. Lows are forecast to be in the 20s. For now, no precipitation is forecast during this period with dry air in place at the surface.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the 12Z TAF period at both terminals. WSW winds at 5-10 knots will increase to 10-15 knots late this morning. Forecast soundings suggest that gusts up to 20-23 knots are possible this afternoon, though.. shallow vertical mixing and a near-surface temperature inversion (where snow cover is present) may impede/limit gust potential. WSW winds will gradually veer to the W this evening and WNW overnight, remaining light.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ090>092. NE...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for NEZ079>081.