textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated severe storm is possible over portions of northwest KS and southwest NE late this aft-eve, mainly north and east of Colby, KS between 6-11 pm CDT. Quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph are the primary threats, should storms develop.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Current mid-level water vapor and surface analysis shows our region under a predominantly northwest upper-level flow with a weak trough present in southwest Kansas. The patchy fog we had this morning cleared out rather quickly leading to clear skies and warm temperatures. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s with lows in the 60s. A boundary has set up along a line approximately from Flagler, Colorado to Stratton, Nebraska. With around 2000 J/kg of CAPE present in that area, isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible along this boundary. Effective shear is maxing out around 20 knots, so that will likely be the limiting factor for any storms that develop. Storms are unlikely to be severe, but we could see some gusty conditions with any collapsing storms. Main highlight for the day will be some windy conditions, particularly for the western portion of the county warning area (CWA). Winds will begin to pick up around 3pm with gusts around 30 mph possible. Windy conditions will persist through early Friday morning for the western CWA.

Friday, we transition to more of a zonal upper-level ridge pattern. Mostly southerly winds will further warm conditions with high temperatures forecast in the 90s. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has the northeast CWA outlooked for a marginal chance of thunderstorms. The environment in the northeast CWA is moderately unstable with around 2000 J/kg of CAPE and around 30-40 knots of 0-6 km Bulk Shear. Steep lapse rates are also present with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km and low level around 8-9 C/km. These would be supportive of hail around 1 inch and wind gusts around 60 mph. Model soundings have a fairly dry mid-layer, so that may be a limiting factor in storms. HREF paintballs have storms initiating in the central CWA east of a dryline as early as 3pm MDT and traversing mostly northeast. Storms will likely exit the area from the east by midnight. The location of the dryline is what will really dictate our storm chances for Friday afternoon. A dryline further east would reduce our storm chances and coverage, while a dryline further west could increase storm coverage for the CWA.

Conditions are forecast to be cooler Saturday. A cold front will move through from the north early Saturday morning resulting in forecast high temperatures in the low 80s. If the cold front lingers in the area, we could see some storms initiate in the afternoon for the northeastern CWA as the environment is marginally supportive of storms. Low confidence (<15%) that storms will occur.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Starting Sunday, an upper level ridge starts to amplify in the Central Plains and into Montana as a low-pressure system in the Northwest slides northeast into Southern Canada on Monday. Once the low-pressure passes through, southwesterly flow returns and will stay until a broad upper-level trough comes through from the north, eventually returning back into the ridge pattern late in the week. This will allow chances for showers and cooling temperatures over next week. Monday and Tuesday will have the first potential for showers as the cold front moves through and transitions into southwesterly flow with embedded shortwaves on tuesday. There is high confidence (80%) that the cold front will occur Monday afternoon, but there is medium confidence (50%) that showers will linger into Tuesday.

On Wednesday and Thursday, conditions for showers look to be similar to Monday and Tuesday. A broader cold front will pass through overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning bringing a drier air mass and a ridge pattern over the area. Confidence decreases from medium to low (50-20%) over the two days as there is a large variability on when the cold front will pass through. While there is a decent chance (up to 45%) for showers across the area, latest guidance favors the southern half of the area for accumulations greater than a tenth of an inch of rain based on the southerly motion and timing of the front.

Temperatures will start in the low 90s Sunday and dip into the upper 80s and low 90s Monday. For Tuesday onwards, afternoon highs should remain in the 70s as a 5-degree temperature spread starts to form over the forecast area that could potentially put highs into the upper 70s. There is medium confidence (60%) that temperature will rise later in the week as we move back into the ridge pattern.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. S to SSW winds at 10-15 knots will prevail through most of the morning, perhaps gusting to ~25 knots for a few hours after sunrise (~13-16Z) prior to weakening and becoming light and variable during the early afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

MCK: A storm cannot be ruled-out in vicinity of the McCook terminal during the late afternoon and early evening (~00-03Z Sat). Confidence in storm development and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 06Z TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. S to SSW winds at 10-15 knots will prevail through sunrise. Gusts up to 20-25 knots are possible during the late morning and early afternoon (~14-21Z). Winds will veer to the SW or WSW during the mid-afternoon and become light/variable during the late afternoon. Winds are likely to remain variable through the evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.