textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog is possible across western and southern portions of the forecast area Sunday morning. Fog may linger through mid morning.

- Dry conditions, breezy winds and near average temperatures expected through at least the start of the new work week.

- Signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions continues.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1205 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Saturday, a large high is in in place across the western CONUS. This is forecast to lead to continued clear skies and dry conditions across the forecast area tonight. The breezy winds from the day are ending and are forecast to continue to do so. Am watching a developing low level jet this evening and overnight but currently am not seeing any signal for these winds to be able to mix down to the surface so should only remain an aviation concern for low level wind shear. Similar to least night some patchy fog may develop around sunrise as winds remain light along with clear skies. Guidance suggests a bit of a surge in 850mb moisture across southern portions of the forecast area. RAP also suggests a high surface to 1km mixing ration difference which suggests that dense fog may be a possibility Currently thinking that Greeley and Wichita counties would be favored for any fog or stratus development development with the potential for it extending as far north into the Interstate 70 corridor across Sherman and Kit Carson counties. Confidence in fog development is around 40-50% and confidence in dense fog is around 20%. Some guidance suggests that any fog or stratus could last through around 15Z Sunday morning.

Sunday, a very reminiscent day to Saturday is forecast. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast as the high pressure system continues to amplify. High temperatures in the low 90s remain forecast as the higher dew points and southeasterly flow continues to help keep the area from warming further. Winds are also to forecast to be similar to Saturday as well as a tightening pressure gradient near the Colorado/Kansas state line develops as sustained winds of 15-20 mph are again forecast. Very weak 700mb winds are again forecast to be present so any stronger wind gusts would be few and far between.

Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be again very similar to each other. Surface high pressure continues to spin now across the portions of the Mid West as this will continue with our southeasterly winds. May need to keep an out again for some patchy fog development Monday morning with the moisture in place, however winds may be a bit stronger which should help to continue mixing through the night to help prevent any fog formation. Will be interesting to see if this signal for the higher winds continues. Monday could end up being a little bit warmer than the previous days as the high pressure is forecast to be centered across the norther Plains. High temperatures are currently forecast in the low 90s to approaching the mid 90s. A tighter pressure gradient is also forecast to be in place each day along with a bit of a stronger low level wind field. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast along with the potential for some gusts up to 30 mph due to a bit deeper mixing. Dew points are still forecast to remain in the 50s and 60s which will help continue to keep fire weather concerns low.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 335 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Bottom Line: High confidence in dry conditions and above normal temperatures. At present, long range guidance suggests day-to- day highs (and heat indices) peaking in the mid-upper 90's with overnight lows ranging from 60-75F, warmest east of Hwy 83.

A Few Thoughts/Observations: A pronounced upper level ridge over the northern Rockies and Northern Plains will amplify and extend eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early this week. Guidance indicates that shortwave energy progressing ESE- SE from Illinois/Indiana into the TN Valley today and Sunday will (1) become trapped beneath the eastward-expanding ridge and (2) evolve into a cut-off low that slowly retrogrades westward across the Lower MS River Valley and Southern Plains mid-late week. Guidance suggests that this feature will play a pivotal role in the evolution of the central CONUS ridge. The presence of a cut-off low over the Southern Plains would impede southward expansion of the ridge; in other words, anchor the core of the ridge (and worst of the heat) over the Northern Plains. If this feature undergoes a different evolution, e.g. the retrograding upper low is weaker, slower or absent, the Tri-State Area would be more at-risk for dangerous heat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are forecast initially but an increasing signal for stratus and perhaps some fog is being seen favoring NW Kansas and northeast Colorado. Confidence is just high enough to introduce IFR conditions into the TAF for GLD; there is potential for LIFR but current thinking is that those should remain south and west of the terminal. Patchy and/or brief reductions in visibility further below the 2SM in this TAF is possible but shouldn't occur until after 12Z so confidence wasn't high enough to go lower for the fog potential at this time. Stratus may linger through the mid morning hours before lifting. MCK is forecast to remain VFR.

Winds for each terminal are forecast to increase late Sunday morning through the afternoon to around 15 knots sustained with some rogue gusts around 20 knots.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.