textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures expected through the remainder of the work week.

- Low chance for a brief period of patchy dense fog in southwest Nebraska Tuesday morning.

- Precipitation chances return next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

..Benign Weather and a Warming Trend through Mid-Week..

Overview: Southwest flow aloft will prevail over the central Rockies and adjoining High Plains through mid-week, as a vertically stacked cyclone digging southward along the Pacific Coast stalls offshore of central-northern California and a broad upper level ridge steadily amplifies over the central CONUS. In the lower levels, a plume of moisture from the TX Gulf Coast will advance northward through the Southern and Central Plains via modest southerly flow on the eastern periphery of a diurnally waxing/waning surface trough in the lee of the central-southern Rockies. Expect a modest day-to-day warming trend beneath the amplifying ridge.

Tuesday: Shortwave energy in Arizona this afternoon [reference 400-250 mb Pot Vort and 700-400 mb DVA products on 19Z SPC mesoanalysis] will lift northeastward across the southern Rockies tonight and Central Plains on Tuesday, accompanied by extensive mid-upper level cloud cover, virga and perhaps a few sprinkles. Expect highs ranging from the upper 60's to lower-mid 70's, coolest in northeast portions of the area.. where cloud cover is more likely to persist well into the afternoon.

Wednesday: In this period, episodic shortwaves will be confined to the Intermountain West, Desert Southwest and 4-Corners, where flow aloft will back to the SSW or S as the cut-off low in the eastern Pacific meanders east toward the California coast and the aforementioned ridge amplifies over the Southern Plains. Mostly clear skies will foster warmer temperatures, with highs in the mid-upper 70's.

Fog: While previous runs of high resolution guidance indicated a potential for patchy dense fog an hour or two on either side of sunrise on both Tue-Wed.. mainly in southwest Nebraska and adjacent Kansas border counties.. current/recent runs suggest that patchy dense fog, if present, would largely (if not entirely) be confined north of the Goodland CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

On Thursday and Friday, the area is still expected to be under an upper-level ridging pattern that amplifies towards the Great Lakes region. while the ridge amplifies to the northeast, a broad trough to the south-southwest begins moving to the east that would put us into southwesterly flow aloft. With this being said, temperatures would likely remain above average staying in the 70s. Some cloud coverage begins to build overnight as mid- to upper-level moisture passes over. Winds are still forecast to pick up from 5-10 mph from Thursday to 20-25 mph Friday from the south.

Over the weekend, the upper-level pattern changes into zonal flow once as the trough system steadily passes over the area. This should bring a cold front early Saturday morning creating slight chances (30%) for showers over the entire forecast area until Sunday morning. With the chances of showers, there is some timing uncertainty with the cold front and trough system as ensemble guidance shows a continuing spread when it will pass over. If the trough speeds up, it would allow the cold front to pass through Friday evening and bring chances for showers overnight and into Saturday afternoon. However, if the the trough slows down, this would then push the cold front to come in midday Saturday allowing showers to occur throughout the rest of the day and into Sunday morning. Once the cold front passes, temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s with some clouds lingering around.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with cloud cover confined to cirrus at or above ~10,000 ft AGL. Light and variable winds will persist through early Tue morning. Winds are forecast to shift to the SE or S and increase to 12-15 knots a few hours after sunrise (~15Z Tue), near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: Aside from a very low probability (~10%) for a brief period of sub-VFR fog (or stratus) around sunrise Tue morning, VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with cloud cover confined to cirrus at or above ~10,000 ft AGL. Light and variable winds will persist through early Tue morning. Winds are forecast to shift to the SE or S and modestly increase to 10-13 knots a few hours after sunrise (~15Z Tue), near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.