textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A bit on the warm side with highs in the 80s and low 90s through the weekend. - Increased fire weather concerns are forecast today and Saturday, especially for counties along the Tri-State border. Relative humidity may drop into the teens with gusts around 30-35 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 113 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Current observations show broad upper ridging across much of the Southern United states and Tri-State area with a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States. This is keeping the main jet north of the area, helping keep skies clear with a lack of moisture through the air column. Broad low pressure has also set up across much of the Plains, helping to keep winds around 10 mph or less early in the morning. As we progress into the daytime hours, an upper trough is forecast to begin pushing into the Northwestern United States. For now, this looks like it will deepen the surface low to the north and northwest of the area, which will increase the winds heading towards the noon hour. Speeds are forecast to reach 10- 20 mph with gusts around 30-35 mph for much of the area. The area that may be spared is counties near the Tri-State border, where the low noses in and keeps winds closer to 10 mph gust 20 mph. This is good as this area is also forecast to have the warmest temperatures (near 90) and driest air, lowering relative humidity into the teens. The forecast favors the dry air and strong winds being offset from each other and inhibiting critical fire weather conditions in the area. Still, be careful as fire danger will be increased across the area. Clear skies are forecast to remain through the day with temperatures warming into the 80s and low to mid 90s. Tonight, the surface low is forecast to become more defined and deeper in the Northern Plains. This will allow the winds to slowly relax a bit over the area as we wind up in the weaker pressure gradient. Mostly clear skies are forecast, with maybe a few high clouds passing through as the upper flow changes to be more from the southwest. Temperatures should remain in the 60s and 70s with the winds keeping the lower levels mixed through most of the night. A few 50s may be possible close to sunrise.

Tomorrow, Hurricane Isaias is forecast to push into the Southeastern United States and stall out a bit. As it does so, it is forecast to help freeze the upper pattern in place. This should lead to a day with very similar conditions to Friday. Clear skies, temperatures in the 80s and 90s, and breezy winds around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are forecast. More of the area around the Tri-State border may see calmer winds as the surface low may expand slightly more to the south and east. This may inhibit critical fire weather conditions if the strongest winds can then be offset of the driest air again. Saturday night, the winds are forecast to remain elevated as the upper trough begins to slowly try and push a little more east, pushing the surface low center closer to the area. This should lead to another night with temperatures in the 60s and 70s, especially with a bit more mid-high level cloud cover.

Sunday, the pattern is forecast to remain stagnant still. The main change is that the surface low is forecast to become more diffuse over the area as the upper trough digs a bit further southwest. This should cause the winds to weaken through the day, with speeds dropping to around 5-10 mph in the afternoon or evening. Otherwise, temperatures again will be in the 80s and 90s while a few mid to high level clouds push through the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 253 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

On Monday, upper-level southwesterly flow is forecast to start next week with ridging to the east and a deep trough to the southwest. With our area being in between these features, clouds should be partly over the area. Winds are expected to be slightly breezy at 15 mph from the south and afternoon temperatures being in the 80s.

Tuesday, Southwesterly flow will still be prominent over the area as the trough starts to move eastward. This will allow drier air aloft to enter over the area. A weak surface low pressure system will likely be going through the area within the early morning hours. This should allow cooler temperatures into the 70s and a slight increase in cloud cover north of I-70. However, a secondary surface low pressure system will likely form to the west during the evening hours. This should lead into our first chances for evening showers to occur throughout the period as this could bring low level moisture into the area from the south/southwest. There is medium confidence (40-60%) that this will happen.

Wednesday, it is very likely that lingering showers from Tuesday will occur throughout the day as the upper-level trough starts to move into the Four Corners region. Though later in the day, there is a possibility that an afternoon thunderstorm could happen as a cold front could pass through. The limiting factor for storms will be elevated surface based CAPE over 600 J/kg. There is low confidence (25%) that this will occur. If storms do occur it will be weak. Otherwise, it will be cloudy and scattered showers over the area.

Thursday, the consistency of the upper-level trough starts to become unclear as the axis moves over the area. Guidance shows some uncertainty with the timing and could either speed up or slow down as another cold front moves through. If the trough speeds up, we could expect the cold front to be in the early morning hours before dawn with lower afternoon temperatures. If the cold front slows down, we can then expect to see slightly warmer temperatures with the front occurring in the afternoon. If precipitation occurs, it will likely be west of Hwy 27.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1111 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period with generally clear skies. South to southwest winds will increase at the beginning of the prevailing period with sustained winds of 10-15 kts increasing to 15-20 kts later this afternoon into the evening. Gusts will also increase...likely varying between 20 and 30 kts. This evening, a SSW low-level jet is forecast to develop and bring speeds of 40-45 kts around 300-500ft and 50-55 kts between 800-1000ft. With this, low-level wind shear is anticipated at both sites, but will weaken slowly after 07Z at KGLD and 12Z at KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.