textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- The area is forecast to have precipitation chances through most of the week, with higher chances towards the weekend.

- Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon generally along and south of a Hill City to Tribune line in northwest Kansas. If storms develop, hail will be the main hazard.

- Another low chance for severe weather is forecast late Thursday. Large hail and damaging winds are possible should severe storms develop.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 137 AM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Satellite observations show a larger upper low over the U.S./Canada border in the High Plains. At the surface, low pressure has developed in the area. For today, the forecast calls for the upper low to push east and a bit south, which should push the low pressure through the area. The forecast remains on track for the surface low/front to push through the area during the morning and sit near West-Central Kansas by the early afternoon. With the main system well north of the area, the pressure gradient is forecast to remain somewhat weak and keep winds below 20 mph from the north. There should still be a few gusts north of I-70 through the late morning and afternoon hours up to 35 mph. This should help limit the potential for critical fire weather conditions with the lowest relative humidity forecast to be south of Highway 40 around the mid teens. Daytime highs are forecast to be in the 70s, with 60s possible for northern parts of the area behind the front and 80s for southern parts along/ahead of the front.

This afternoon and evening, the front should serve as a focus point for storm development. Areas behind the front will likely be too dry for any measurable precipitation. There is about a 10-15% chance that some elevated showers and storms form for counties along the Colorado border, especially later in the evening as some mid-level moisture pushes in with the upper wave shifting east. Severe storms are unlikely in this area, but may be able to produce some dry lightning. The main severe threat will be tied to the front. With this zone forecast to still set up roughly from Tribune, KS to Hill City, KS, most of the area will not see storms or severe weather. Large hail will be possible starting as early as 2pm MT / 3pm CT for the areas along and south of the line. The saving grace is that these storms, should they develop at all, will likely move quickly out of the area to east/southeast. In short, the severe weather chance is very low for the area. The largest hail size looks to be about one inch with a marginally supportive environment (CAPE around 500-1000 J/KG and 0-6km shear around 40kts). The best chance will be as storms first form as they will likely cluster somewhat rapidly.

Tonight, winds should lower below 10 mph as a slightly cooler air mass sets in over the area. As the moisture pushes east with the upper system, there should be a few breaks in the cloud cover. This along with the colder air mass should allow most of the area to drop into the 30s. Freezing temperatures will be possible in Eastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska.

For Thursday, another upper disturbance in the form of a trough is forecast to take a similar path to today's low. It is forecast to be further north with a little less influence over the area early in the day. With this, the pressure gradient is forecast to remain stagnant and keep winds around 5 to 15 mph from the southeast/east. This should allow the area to warm more into the 70s with 80s for southeastern portions of the area.

Thursday evening and overnight, the trough axis is forecast to swing more through the Northern Plains. As it does so, it is forecast to help develop a low and an area of surface convergence near the Palmer Divide. Storms are forecast to develop along this boundary and then push east. The biggest debate/issue is show much moisture will push in with the low level easterly flow. The upper trough is forecast to pus through enough mid to upper level moisture to help start storms, but may not have enough downstream to keep going. In this case, Eastern Colorado would see a few sub-severe storms that then fizzle out with cloud cover going across the area. This seems to be the likely scenario for now. In a scenario where there is better low level moisture, then MUCAPE could reach ~1500 J/kg. With 0-6km shear around 45 kts and mid-level lapse rates near 9 C/km, large hail would be able to form. The max size looks to be about 1.75", with most hail stones near or below 1.00". As for wind gusts, corfidi downshear around 45 kts helps what guidance is suggesting with wind gusts around 50 mph, but maybe up to 60 mph. The flow through 300mb is fairly weak though around 40 kts, which may mean that severe gusts may be very sporadic if they occur at all.

The rest of the night would see the precipitation weaken while moving east and plenty of cloud cover linger. The area is forecast to see temperatures mainly in the 40s with a few 30s and winds in the absence of storms around 10-15 mph from the east.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1055 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at KGLD and KMCK. Winds will become northwesterly early in the morning ahead of a cold front. This front will rapidly bring in north-northeasterly winds gusting around 25 kts by the late morning. Isolated light showers are possible through the period, but no impacts are expected. KMCK looks to see LLWS at 200-400 feet AGL from the southwest at about 50 kts, tapering off between 09-13Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.