textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered storm chances through mid week. A few severe storms will be possible in the afternoon and early evening with large hail and damaging winds.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures today and tomorrow, then near to slightly below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A broad upper ridge stretching from the Four Corners to Texas will move little today and tomorrow. It will consolidate over the Four Corners Wednesday and Thursday and begin to amplify. The central plains will remain on the periphery of the ridge with a zonal flow tending to become more northwesterly as the ridge amplifies later in the period. Embedded disturbances will result in at least some chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Additional storms may move off the higher terrain to the west.

For today, latest CAMs are not showing much convection in the area. An isolated storm or two may develop along the lee trough in northeast Colorado this afternoon, but fade by sunset. Most of the activity will be well to the north in Nebraska and the Dakotas tonight.

On Tuesday, a weak surface trough or front will move through in the morning with winds shifting to the north. It will have minimal impacts on temperatures, but may be the focus for isolated convection in southern parts of the area in the afternoon where it will stall out. The environment will be moderately unstable with 2000-2500 j/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. While overall forcing is rather weak and coverage on the low side, any thunderstorm that develops in this environment will have the potential of producing large hail and damaging winds. Appears to be somewhat better chances tomorrow night for scattered storms moving across the area out of Colorado. There is some weak isentropic lift/low level warm air advection after 06z which may keep the storms going through the overnight. CAMs have varying solutions on how strong the storms will be, with a fairly weak low level jet at less than 20 kts but lingering MUCAPE of around 1500 j/kg. While an isolated marginally severe storm cannot be completely ruled out tomorrow night, the overall severe threat appears to be low.

As noted above, Wednesday and Thursday will be more of a northwest flow regime, with a weak to moderately unstable environment each afternoon along with around 40 kts of deep layer shear. Forcing somewhat nebulous once again, but in addition to any embedded wave in the northwest flow, appears to be a surface boundary in the area on Wednesday which could be a focus for initiation. CAMs show an isolated storm or two after about 22z which may pose a large hail and damaging wind threat given the environmental parameters. Additional storms may move in from Colorado Wednesday evening, mainly south of Interstate 70. On Thursday, CAMs suggesting storms may be more isolated with the strengthening ridge. Mean storm motions also become more northerly which may take Front Range convection more southward rather then eastward across the plains. Environmental parameters remain favorable for severe storms should they develop, but confidence is low at this time.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today and Tuesday, followed by a slight cool down on Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s, before returning to near normal on Thursday with highs around 90.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 201 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

GEFS, EC, and LREF ensembles support a 500-mb high moving in overhead beginning Friday morning, and remaining through the end of the forecast period. Southerly flow near the surface is favored underneath the ridge. The exception to this would be if shortwave troughs coming over the Rockies could develop a surface low over or just to the south of the forecast region, favoring northerly surface flow. Otherwise, hot conditions supported by the southerly flow and solar heating are expected for the full duration of the long term period, with highs forecast in the 90s Friday through Monday.

Dry conditions are also forecast in the long term due to the higher temperatures. Relative humidities (RH) look to be in the low to mid 20s across portions of East-Central Colorado Friday through Monday. It is possible that RH values could drop even further into the teens across portions of the forecast region, with some areas showing as high as a 40% chance of doing so between Friday and Sunday according to LREF guidance. The broadest area covered by these elevated probabilities is on Sunday along and south of I-70, where nearly all areas have a 1 in 3 chance or higher of RH values dropping into the teens. These lower RH values would be most probable if a shortwave trough could traverse areas north and east of the forecast area along the leading edge of the upper-level high. This could support southwesterly to westerly flow developing across the forecast area, and thus, promote even higher temperatures and drier conditions with RH in the teens. Even so, fire weather is not expected during this period, as wind gusts are forecast to remain below 25 mph in areas of the lowest RH values.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the long term period, however NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows a 25% chance or less across the forecast region that greater than 0.1 inches of rain will be experienced from Friday to Sunday. These probabilities increase a little bit across Eastern Colorado Monday, where there is up to a 45% chance. If storms are able to develop, the most likely area where they would become severe is across Red Willow County in Nebraska, and Decatur, Norton, and Graham Counties in Kansas. LREF guidance is suggestive of a 40% chance or higher across this zone through the long term period that sfc-500mb wind shear would exceed 30 kts. Even so, uncertainty regarding whether storms would form in addition to their coverage leaves confidence in severe storms occurring less than 5% Friday through Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 412 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and occasional high clouds. A wind shift will occur mid to late Tuesday morning at both terminals, with north to northeast winds gusting up to 20 kts through the rest of Tuesday afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.