textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening for the entire area. Supercells will be possible, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and blowing dust, and perhaps a tornado.

- Storm chances continue through much of the week. Severe weather is possible Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1231 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Current satellite observations have a large upper low over the Northwestern United States with ridging over the Southern United States. The observations are also showing cumulus clouds forming around and south of Highway 40 in NW Kansas. This area is our first area of concern for storms this afternoon. While the earlier storms did use up some of the instability, clearing skies and continued low level moisture advection is allowing for decent recovery. With the earlier outflow in the area, am expecting this area to have storms develop around 1-3pm MT. This is just a bit faster than prior forecasts, but not too much of a change. We are still expecting the storms to develop and make their way to the east/northeast. The environment is forecast to have plenty of shear with 0-6km shear around 40-50 kts. With the shear and MUCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg, we have plenty of support for storms to sustain themselves. This does lead to a concern for supercells with hail potentially above 2 inches in diameter. Otherwise, storms that cluster fairly quickly should have hail between 0.5-2.0" with wind gusts up to 70 mph. The tornado threat is forecast to initially be low with LCLs above 1500 meters. But given a persistent enough storm, LCLs should lower with 0-1km shear around 10-20 kts. This could allow for a tornado to form.

A secondary line is forecast to form in Eastern Colorado closer to the center of the low and along the Palmer Divide. These storms should push steadily to the east northeast, mainly impacting along and North of I70 (though all of Eastern Colorado has a chance). The threats are fairly similar to the other storms as there isn't forecast to be much of a change in the environment.

As both clusters push east/northeast, they area forecast to move into an environment with slightly less instability due to the early cloud cover and outflow from the earlier storms. That being said, there is more moisture forecast to be available. This may lead to the chances for severe weather decreasing, but will also help a low chance persist through the night as long as we have storms. This will also lead to a concern for flash flooding as storms converge in the northeast part of the area, and then potentially reignite along outflows. The overall chance is around 20% or less as storms would likely have to stall over an area. With downshear vectors around 40- 50 kts, this doesn't see too likely. But clustering/training over an area could lead to 2-4 inches of rain. Overnight storms chances should generally favor NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. With the storms and cloud cover, temperatures should generally stay in the 60s and 70s. Some fog may also occur in Eastern Colorado and adjacent counties as long as storms stay to the east and allow for some clearing and cooling.

For tomorrow, showers and storms could continue into the morning as long as outflow boundaries remain in the area. But they should push out of the area later in the morning as instability drops due to the persistent storms and as the surface low pushes a bit more to the west. The upper level ridge is also forecast to amplify a bit more into the Plains as the upper trough shifts a bit more to the north. While the precip chances may lower, the cloud cover is forecast to be fairly thick for most of the day, which should keep temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

As the day goes on, the upper trough axis to the northwest is forecast to shift a bit eastward along with the surface low. This may be just enough to get storms going again, though any prior activity may stabilize the air too much. If it doesn't, it looks like storms should fire up along the Palmer Divide again and maybe close to Greeley county if a surface convergence zone sets up. The main difference for tomorrow is that the flow as a whole is forecast to be weaker, leading to lower shear and lower wind gust potential. This should lead to more clustering storms that may struggle to hold together. The severe hazards should also be a little lower in intensity, though an isolated storm may be able to still produce very large hail and maybe a tornado. As storms progress east, the instability is forecast to lower which should have most storms dissipate or become showers. May still have storms linger through the night in our eastern areas if they can keep forming on outflow boundaries. Temperatures should remain in the 60s and 70s for most of the night with the cloud cover and linger precipitation.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 154 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Wednesday, the upper trough that had been over the Western United States is forecast to finally push east and move through the Plains. It is forecast to move slow enough that the cloud cover should linger through the day, keeping temperatures more in the 80s. With the moisture and synoptic support moving through, storms are forecast to fire up again in the area. Severe weather would be possible, but likely not widespread with the cloud cover hindering instability generation.

Thursday through Saturday, the area is forecast to be under zonal/ridging flow. This should lead to relatively mid conditions with little change in air mass. Temperatures are forecast to reach the 80s and low 90s with winds around 10-20 mph. Storms are possible each day, though the lack of larger synoptic forcing is keeping chances lower around 10-25% (favoring the east where there will likely be more moisture).

Late in the weekend, another upper trough is forecast to move into the Western United States and push east towards the area. This could lead to conditions similar to today and tomorrow with more moist and warm conditions ahead of the trough. This should bring back better chances for storms and severe weather, as long as the trough doesn't lag to the west. Otherwise, the benign conditions would continue a few more days with slightly warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1109 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through 09Z, but storm chances are forecast to increase as we get into the late afternoon and evening hours. These storms are likely to form west and south of the terminals before moving over. Severe weather is possible with large hail and wind gusts of 50-60 kts. Blowing dust may also develop and reduce visibility to a mile at times. KMCK has the higher chances for storms and may see them for an extended period after 00Z. Once the storms clear, ceilings are forecast to lower to around or below 1000ft for the early morning hours. If storms or showers remain in the vicinity, ceilings may stay closer to 2500ft or more. The precip and low clouds should all be clearing by 15Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.