textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight generally south of Interstate 70 with best chances south of Highway 96. A few wind gusts of 50-60 mph possible with stronger storms.

- Fog is possible overnight, mainly along and south of I-70. There may be patches of dense fog with visibility near one quarter of a mile.

- Seasonal temperatures expected today and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 228 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Current observations show a upper level zonal flow over the area with a broad trough over the Northern United States and broad ridging over the Southern United States. A smaller trough is located roughly over Montana and moving east. At the surface, higher pressure and a colder air mass have moved in with the surface low and front now over Oklahoma. With this and lingering cloud cover, temperatures have been hovering in the upper 70s through mid 80s. This should hold through most of the afternoon. Tonight, there will be some chances for storms south of I-70 as the smaller upper trough moves over the Plains, helping storms develop west of the area. We may also have outflows from the storms south of the area that move north and help develop some additional storms. The chances for severe weather will be low with storms updrafts likely competing with each other. If a storm does stay isolated, there is a chance for a severe storm with large hail around an inch and wind gusts near 60 mph. We also will have a low chance for flooding if the outflows generate storms before the cluster from the west arrives. Overall, the chance for flooding and/or severe weather is less than 10%. The increased low level moisture both from the precipitation and low level easterly flow will also give the area a chance for fog. Fog will likely form just north of wherever the precipitation is occurring, and has a small chance of becoming dense.

To start the day tomorrow, a few showers may linger depending on if any outflow boundaries persist in the area. Fog could also linger into the morning hours if the precipitation didn't interrupt its formation. Most of this should clear by the noon hour as we slowly heat up for the day. With the area forecast to be in zonal/split flow behind the smaller trough, temperatures aren't forecast to change much with highs in the 80s. The main change will be winds from the south with low pressure forecast to develop in the Northern High Plains. With a lack of features over the area, precipitation is unlikely from the afternoon through the remainder of the day. Lows tomorrow night are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s for most of the area. A few 70s may be possible east of Highway 83 if we keep enough low level moisture for some clouds and fog to form.

Friday, zonal flow is forecast for most of the day while another upper trough slides east across the Northern United States. For the daytime hours, the southerly low level flow is forecast to help advect in warmer air and allow for temperatures to warm into the 90s across the area. Winds at the surface could be a bit weaker than Over the weekend Thursday if the advancing surface low and front move over the area. Otherwise, there is a 20% chance that winds could be closer to 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

With the surface low and front in the area, thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Storm chances currently favor east of Highway 27 as the front brings drier air in behind it and lowers chances for western parts of the area. There is some variability though in how far the dry air will advance, so the whole area still has a low chance. Should storms form, a few may be able to become severe with MUCAPE forecast to be around 2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear around 35 kts. The storms would then continue east before likely dissipating shortly after midnight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 240 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Over the weekend and into next week, zonal flow will remain over the Northern CONUS until a low-pressure system from the northwest slides eastward on Monday, followed by a return to southwesterly zonal flow. On Saturday and Sunday, afternoon showers are expected due to shortwave troughs and diurnal heating, though confidence remains low to medium (2540%). On Monday, showers are expected to form in the afternoon as the cold front arrives. There is a 60% chance of showers, but the exact timing during the day remains uncertain due to variability in the fronts arrival.

Afternoon temperatures will start in the low 80s on Saturday, then rise into the low to mid-90s on Sunday. For the remainder of the period, temperatures are forecast to hover around 80F. However, with the cold front passing through Monday, temperatures may end up lower than expected; as the NBM 75th- to-25th percentile spread exceeds 10F. There is medium confidence (60%) in this cooler scenario, with potential afternoon highs in the upper 70s.

Critical fire weather is not expected to develop on Sunday. However, wind gusts up to 30 knots and relative humidity dipping into the low 20s within the Colorado counties will push Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values above 50. The primary limiting factor is relative humidity, which would need to drop below 15% for critical conditions. Consequently, confidence that fire weather conditions will intensify further remains low (20%) due to the incoming cold front.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 448 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through about 07-10Z, then IFR conditions due to fog and low clouds. If the fog is able to develop, visibility should lower to around 2-4SM with ceilings below 1000ft. There is a chance that storms just to the south and their outflows may be able to break this up and keep the terminal at VFR conditions. If the fog does form, it should clear by 14-15Z and allow for clearer skies. Otherwise, winds near the surface should lighten and go from out of the northwest to out of the south.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. There is a 10% chance that low clouds and fog make it far enough to impact the terminal between 09-15Z. If they do make it, be alert for IFR conditions. Otherwise, winds should start roughly from the northwest at 10 kts, and then veer to out of the south through the night time hours.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.