textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A cluster of storms is forecast to move into the area Saturday evening from Colorado with damaging winds the primary hazard.

UPDATE

Issued at 520 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Showers and a few storms are expected to persist through the early morning. The Flood and Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been allowed to end early.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1212 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

In the near term...thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage as they move out of Colorado the next few hours and continue through the overnight as the low level jet strengthens. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern, but may also see a few embedded stronger storms with a marginal wind and hail threat. Storms should be exiting the area to the east between 11-13z.

For the rest of today...upper ridge over west Texas and New Mexico well start to build into the southern Rockies, turning the flow over the central plains from zonal to slightly northwest. Another embedded wave will move through this afternoon and evening. CAMs show convection initiating along the Front Range and Cheyenne Ridge 21-22z and moving southeast, reaching the Colorado and Kansas border area 00-03z. However, with rapidly declining instability, and lack of a low level jet, storms are forecast to decay rather quickly. Remnant outflows appear to be the main severe threat through the early evening into northwest Kansas, ending by 06z at the latest, but probably closer to 03z. Given the lack of a low level jet, not expecting any overnight convection.

On Sunday...upper ridge continues to build northward into Colorado, with a northerly flow around it over the central plains. Given the lack of forcing in proximity to the ridge, convection appears unlikely.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 139 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Starting with the upper pattern, there is a ridge that begins to move in over the Dakotas and Canada. This ridge will begin to stall out and remain stationary for the majority of the period. Along with the ridge, there are two lows both sitting off of the northern west and northern east coast. With this pattern our flow for the CWA will mainly be weak zonal and will see some small embedded shortwave troughs throughout the week. These shortwaves will likely bring some higher precipitation chances for the area.

Sunday through Friday all look very similar with high temperatures in the low 80s to upper 90s. Beginning Wednesday there is slight increase with temperatures reaching near 100 degrees. The probability of exceeding 100 degrees for Wednesday through Friday is 5-10% for mainly areas south of I-70. Except for Friday, areas west of KS Hwy 27 along with south of I-70 will see 5-15% of exceeding 100 degrees. Moving to the winds they mainly remain out of the south-southeast. Gusts look to remain around 25-35 mph. RH values remain above 20% for the majority of the period as well.

As for precipitation/storm chances, PoPs are showing there being 15- 30% chance for the majority of the CWA for this period. Moving to storm potential, Guidance is showing there being around 1000-2000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE. Looking at Bulk Shear there is 25-40 kts. NCAR AI Convective Hazard Forecast products is showing there being around a 5-15% of severe hazards for at least one county in the CWA. Given the shortwaves that move through the area along with the storm ingredients there could be the potential of storms for the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 445 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be moving out of the area early this morning with a return to VFR expected. Next chance for storms will be this evening, with gusty winds possible. Best chances will be at KGLD where there is around a 30% chance for impacts, but chances are 20% or less at KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.