textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances continue through early Saturday afternoon.

- Early morning sub-freezing Sunday morning could lead to black ice from lingering wet roads from the rain.

- 20% chance of patchy freezing fog developing Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Fire Weather Watches issued for portions of the area Sunday and Tuesday. Tuesday is the most concerning for fire spread as winds may gust in excess of 65 mph along with some blowing dust potential as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 218 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

A developing low pressure system across southwest Kansas continues to lead to showers developing across the area. Some lingering weak MUCAPE may lead to some very isolated thunder or a rogue lightening strike but with lapse rates around 6.5 C/KM it is doubtful but not is not impossible. The peak of the rain is forecast to occur from now through mid morning Saturday when 700-500mb omega is at its highest around -12-20 microbars. Overall accumulations are forecast to be around one quarter to one half inch favoring locales along and south of Interstate 70. Rain is forecast to slowly move out of the area northwest to southeast through the day. High temperatures for the day have come down some as clouds are forecast to linger through the day as well.

Saturday night and into Sunday morning do have some concern for fog developing due to light winds and clearing skies. A caveat to this is that winds are forecast to become more westerly. However the winds are forecast to remain less than 6 knots so am thinking that this should still be enough for some fog to form due to the clear skies and a freshly saturated boundary layer from the recent rain. Forecast soundings all show shallow saturation which does lead me to believe that fog should be patchy in nature. Temperatures are forecast to be around or just below freezing which also does raise the concern for freezing fog and perhaps some light icing.

A surface trough is forecast to move into the area through the morning Sunday as winds shift to the southwest. This is a classic setup for warmer temperatures than what guidance suggests. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for portions of the area due to signal for warmer than forecast temperatures and wind gusts of 25-35 mph. Looking at the 300K Theta E we do get some subtle moisture advection from the west. This factor is keeping confidence in 3 or more hours of critical fire weather conditions around 50%; if it was not for this confidence would be closer to 70-80% in numerous hours of critical conditions occurring.

Another warm day with highs in the 60s-70s is forecast Monday as troughing across the western CONUS occurs and a surface low develops across southwest Kansas. Humidity is currently forecast in the mid to upper teens along with some wind gusts of 15-25 mph with the strongest occurring across eastern Colorado. However I do have some concerns on the duration of any critical conditions and how warm temperatures do warm with a southeast wind in place. Southeasterly winds are notorious for keeping humidity values up a little higher. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical fire weather conditions is currently around 20-30% at this time which is the reason for opting out of a Fire Weather Watch for Monday at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 326 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tuesday continues to be a major concern for fire weather. A 250 mb jet maximum is forecast to move through our region Tuesday morning placing us in a strong southwesterly flow. This will pummel our area with strong southwesterly/westerly winds that will cause dry conditions. Relative humidity (RH) values quickly drop in the lower teens Tuesday early afternoon for the majority of the county warning area (CWA).

Winds remain consistent from the last run of the NBM, which overall increases confidence that the region will experience high winds and high fire danger Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible for the eastern portion and gusts from 45-65 mph are possible for the western portion, favoring the Colorado counties. The NBM is showing probabilities of >70% for wind gusts over 55 mph for our Colorado counties. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values reflect increasing concerns for fire danger. GFDI values range from 60-125+ increasing from east to west. Kit Carson, Yuma, and Cheyenne (CO) are on the higher end with GFDI values over 100. Any fires that start will have explosive growth and rapid spread. A cold frontal passage is forecast to affect the CWA beginning around 18Z Tuesday. This will cause a wind shift and negatively affect any fire suppression efforts. Confidence has increased for fire weather conditions, so a Fire Weather Watch has been issued.

Blowing dust may be a concern Tuesday, particularly for our Colorado counties. GFS 0-2 km AGL lapse rates are between 8.5-10 C/km, which support dust being lofted. GFS 2-2.5 km lapse rates range from 3-7 C/km. Any values below 6.5 C/km suggest lofted dust will not mix up higher in the atmosphere. This, combined with a cold frontal passage and wind shift Tuesday after 18z, is concerning for a wall of dust to form. The timing of when the cold front moves through could greatly change impacts. Currently, the cold front is forecast to exit the CWA by 0Z.

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, dewpoints drop into the single digits/low teens and remain fairly stagnant throughout Wednesday. This adds to fire weather concerns due to conditions drying and lack of overnight recovery. Wednesday, we remain under a strong jet maximum. RH values are currently forecast in the teens for the afternoon, but may further lower depending on response to Tuesday's wind and fire event. Wind gusts are forecast up to 35 mph for the eastern half of the CWA and gusts from 40-50 mph are possible for the western portion. GFDI values have decreased from the last run of the NBM and range from 30-70 for our Colorado counties. The timing of highest wind gusts are a bit earlier than the lower RH values due to the cold frontal passage. Fire danger is still a concern, but lower GFDI values reflect conditions have slightly improved.

There is a slight chance for precipitation beginning overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The right entrance region of a jet maximum passes over our region as well as a weak shortwave. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 10-20% for the northern portion of the CWA. If precipitation does fall, it will likely be a wintry mix due to high temperatures forecast in the 50s and lows in the high teens/low 20s. Winds calm down slightly in comparison to earlier in the week with gusts up to 30 mph possible for our Colorado counties.

Friday, we are forecast to be in a mild zonal pattern. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 40s/low 50s. Models are showing a weak trough west of our region, but vary on intensity and speed of it traversing through our region. This will be something to keep an eye on for precipitation chances as the week progresses.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 412 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Rain continues across the area. A more persistent rain for GLD has led to multiple hours of IFR visibilities. Anticipating a gradual lessening intensity with pockets of heavier. MCK is however on the very northern extent of the rain with mainly light rain in the 6-10SM range. Rain is forecast to stop impacting terminals during the late morning into the early afternoon with VFR conditions returning. Breezy winds remain forecast for GLD as skies clear this afternoon. Do have some concerns for freezing fog Saturday night into Sunday morning for each terminal. At this time forecasting patchy fog due to shallow saturated layer so confidence in timing and whether or not it will impact a terminal is to low to include in the TAF currently.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for KSZ001-002-013. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for COZ252-253. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ252>254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for NEZ079>081. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NEZ079>081.