textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average highs expected late this week through early next week.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions forecast Saturday through Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 126 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Large scale mid/upper ridging over the western US that is part of a stubborn Rex block pattern begins to shift east over the Central Rockies Thursday and eventually over the Central High Plains Friday, with rising heights and a tendency for Lee troughing bringing well above average temperatures to the region along with deep dry air. Temperatures Thursday are forecast to be the warmest of this upcoming pattern and adjusting for recent low biases we have a chance for warmer locations to warm to around 70F. Daily records are in the middle 70s and while that isn't expected we are still in line for a spring-like day at least in the upper 60s for many locations. Friday will be a touch "cooler" in the low to middle 60s as a weak frontal zone passes through the region early in the day and 850MB temps drop about 5-7C.

Regarding fire weather concerns Thursday: Before the main ridge axis noses over the region, northwest flow aloft will be in place with a diminishing LLJ (25-35kt) that could lead to gusty winds during the daytime period Thursday as deep mixing increases. There continues to be a trend towards increasing mixed layer Tds, so even on the warmer end of guidance RH values are expected to remain above 20% and critical fire weather conditions are less likely as a result.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 126 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Synoptic Overview: The deamplification/break-down of a pronounced upper level ridge over the western CONUS (this weekend) will herald a transition to a more progressive synoptic pattern early next week.

Sat-Sun: An upper level low progged to move ashore Baja, CA late this week will become trapped beneath the deamplifying western CONUS ridge this weekend, resulting in a split-flow regime over the Rockies and confluent flow aloft over adjacent portions of the Central Plains. Expect dry conditions and well above average temperatures in the mid-upper 60's.

Mon-Wed: Long range guidance indicates a transition to a progressive, unidirectional flow pattern early next week.. as the aforementioned low ejects eastward across the Southern Plains (Mon) and Southern MS River Valley (Tue). Expect dry conditions and another day of well above average temperatures on Mon, followed by a modest cooling trend on Tue-Wed.

Fire Weather: Critical fire weather conditions are possible over a limited portion of the area on Saturday, mainly in northeast CO.. on the western periphery of an eastward advancing lee trough during the late afternoon, when/where RH's will bottom-out ~15% and deep vertical mixing could transport modest (~20-25 knot) NW flow to the surface for a few hours. While warm/dry conditions are expected on both Sun-Mon, weak winds are expected to preclude critical fire weather conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1033 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at KGLD. There is a chance for MVFR status in central Nebraska to approach KMCK early in the TAF period, however current trends show this eroding with daytime mixing that makes VFR more likely to prevail.

Northwest winds in the 12-15kt range should decrease below 12kt late afternoon becoming light and variable with sunset. Surface low pressure builds over eastern CO/WY late tonight resulting in a shift in winds to the southwest. A low level jet develops in the 08-13Z period which may bring a period of low level wind shear (30-40kt). Wind shear ends as daytime mixing increases Friday morning along with increasing northwest winds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.