textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog is possible through this morning, especially east of Highway 25.

- Scattered showers and storms continue into the weekend. Severe storms are possible Friday through Sunday with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the main threats. A tornado or two may be possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1256 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Current observation show the large upper trough still spinning over the West Coast with the weaker trough arm over the Plains. With that arm weakening over the Plains and slight ridging trying to nose into the area, the precipitation chances have lowered with a few showers lingering that should end before sunrise. That being said, plenty of moisture remains over the area with the low cloud cover and fog that is over the area. Close to the midnight hour, the visibility with the fog has been around 3-8 miles for most of the area. Winds may be light around 5-10 mph, but them shifting to more out of the east is bringing in more low level moisture. So while the fog and cloud cover should keep temperatures steady initially and hinder dense fog development, the added moisture should allow for dense fog to develop a bit before sunrise. For now, this looks to favor locales east of Highway 83. There is the chance that more of the area may see dense fog as well, so keep an eye out for changing conditions.

Friday, the upper trough over the west is forecast to begin pushing east. This is forecast to push the low pressure center east into the area and begin to bring in some drier air. As the drier air pushes in, the fog and cloud cover should slowly begin to burn off. This should lead to a mix of clouds and clear skies as mid-level moisture is forecast to continue wrapping around the trough while the lower level cloud cover clears. This should allow highs to warm into the 80s for most of the area. With the surface low still west of the area, winds should be from the south/southeast with speeds around 10- 15 mph.

During the afternoon and early evening hours, the low is forecast to near the area and help set up some convergence zones west and south of the area. While in the drier air compared to locales further east, these areas are still forecast to be moist enough for storms to fire up with MUCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km also support storms developing and being able to sustain a bit. The question is how much wind shear will be available for the storms with most guidance around 25-35kts. While this could support a few stronger storms/supercells, this more likely to lead to clustering. So if a storm develops and sustains, be alert for large hail potentially reaching 2 inches or more. Otherwise, a couple rogue downbursts of 60-70 mph may occur if storms cluster. For now, the main areas of interest are south of I-70 where a convergence zone sets up on the south side of the low and for counties near the Tri-State border from the Palmer Divide. Timing looks to be around 4-9pm MT.

Overnight, the storms should push to the east/northeast and clear the area before midnight. With that, mostly clear skies are forecast with winds lingering around 10 mph. Lows are forecast to drop to around 50 in the west where it is drier and near 60 in the east, Locales east of Highway 83 may hang onto enough low level moisture for fog to develop again.

Saturday, the upper trough/low that has been west of the area is forecast to slow and get pulled north by another trough that is advancing towards the Northwestern United States. With this, the upper low is forecast to be just west of the area keeping us in the positive vorticity advection zone. Near the surface, the low is forecast to push into the area bit more before elongating over the area. This is forecast to shift the low level flow to out of the southwest and help bring in drier and warmer air. For most of the area, this should lead to sunny skies and temperatures in the 80s with a few 90s for southeastern parts of the area. Winds are forecast to be around 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

During the afternoon and evening hours, there will be another chance for storms to form. The storms are mainly favored to form along and ahead of the dryline, which is currently forecast to be around a line from Gove, KS to Yuma, CO. There is the possibility this line shifts, with it more likely to shift east and limit the chances for the entire area. Otherwise, with the moisture and heat ahead of the dryline, there would be plenty of instability with guidance suggesting 2500-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE. This would support very strong storms, with large to giant hail as the biggest concern. The main limiter is that 0-6km shear is forecast to be around 25-35 kts which would favor clustering storms instead of sustained supercells again. But similar to today's threat, be on the lookout for supercells as they would likely produce significant hail. Unique for Saturday is that the chances for tornadoes are a bit better. The overall chances remain low, but dewpoints trying to near 70 would lower LCLs and help support tornado development. Otherwise, the clouds would likely be too "High based" to be supportive of anything more than a quick spinup. The wind threat remains largely the same with maybe a few gusts in the 60-70 mph range.

Saturday night, the low pressure system at the surface is forecast to keep pushing east and shift winds to out of the northwest. This is forecast to allow for clearing skies with slightly cooler temperatures lowering into the 40s in the west and the 50s in the east.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 305 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

Starting with Sunday, the upper level pattern has a shortwave trough making its way through the County Warning Area (CWA). There is a jet streak over the Rockies and the entrance begins to creep in. The high temperatures for the day look to warm up to the mid to high 80s with some localized 90s in the southeastern portions of the region. The lows look to be in the 50s. Winds look to be relatively calm and out of the southeast.

As for precipitation and storm chances, starting with CAPE, Guidance is suggesting there to be at least 1000 J/kg for the northeast portions of the CWA. 2000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE may be present for Red Willow, Norton, and Graham counties. Surface to 500 mb shear values are in the 25-40 kts range. These values would support thunderstorm development. The main threats, if severe, would be 1.50" hail and gusts up to 40-50 kts. One thing to note, this will be dependent on how the system on Saturday moves through. If the system stays more to the west then we could see marginal severe potentials from the wrap around storms from the system.

For the extended period of the week, there looks to be a ridge that is sandwiched between two lows over Canada on Monday. The low pressure system to the northwest will kick out some shortwave troughs that will bring precipitation chances to the region. This does look to be on the weaker side as it quickly crumbles away come Wednesday. Then the upper flow transitions to more zonal flow.

Guidance has been showing the high temperatures to be in the 80s for the majority of this period. For Thursday the temperatures warm up a bit to the high 80s, as the upper pattern transitions. The lows are forecast to be in the 50-60s range. Monday through Thursday PoPs are in the 40-60% range during the each day's afternoon/evening hours. As for severe potential, there is no strong signal for anything yet, but nothing can be ruled out since this is about 4-7 days out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... IFR conditions and/or airport minimums are forecast as fog and low clouds move into the area. Ceilings are forecast to remain around 200-400ft through much of the night once they reach that level. Visibility may vary a bit as the fog comes in waves, but the worst of the visibility should be near sunrise around 11-13Z with dense fog possible. As we get into the daytime hours, the fog should burn off by 15Z and the low ceilings lift by 18Z. After that, expect mostly sunny skies with winds from the south around 10-15 kts. A few storms may fire up and move through between 22-04Z. These storms could be severe with large hail, wind gusts to 50+ kts, and maybe a tornado.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.