textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Briefly critical fire weather conditions expected south of Highway 40 this afternoon.

- There is a low chance (< 15%) for a short period of freezing fog or freezing drizzle near the KS-NE border around sunrise Tuesday morning.

- The area is forecast to have precipitation chances through most of the week, with higher chances towards the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 225 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The overnight hours have had the area under northwest flow aloft with an area of low pressure continuing to develop just southwest of the area. The high pressure continues to in place across most of the Plains. The low is forecast to continue to deepen and develop through the day, leading to an increase in the pressure gradient and the winds. Winds are forecast to increase to around 15-25 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph for most of the area. The exception is for counties along and south of Highway 40 where the center of the low is forecast to nose into. These areas could see winds lower to around 10 mph. This is also forecast to help keep this area warmer in the 70s with maybe some 80s possible. This does lead to a tricky scenario where critical fire weather conditions are possible if the lowest relative humidity does line up with some of the stronger winds. Overall confidence is about 60% and I'm not sure if it would be for multiple hours. So for now I've held off on a Red Flag Warning, but those south of Highway 40 should use extra cautions with flames. The rest of the area should also probably use extra caution with flames as well due to the strong winds, but temperatures in the 60s and low 70s under the highs should keep relative humidity above 20%.

The interesting weather is forecast to continue into tonight. The area is forecast to remain between the low pressure to the west and the high to the east. This will give the area continued easterly flow and offset some of the dry air trying to move in as the main bulk of the high pushes into the Plains ahead of an embedded trough. With colder air still moving into the area, this is forecast to help saturate some of the lower levels. As the prior discussion noted, precipitation is possible, but still limited by how much 850-700mb moisture is forecast to be available. Current guidance suggests that the better moisture will remain north of the area, but maybe shift into Southwest Nebraska and adjacent counties. This area is not only favored for the possibility of precipitation (20-30%), but maybe also some freezing fog or mist. Guidance is a little more aggressive now on the near surface layer moistening. The rest of the area should see increasing cloud cover, but is unlikely to see any precipitation.

Tuesday, the area is forecast to be under broad troughing aloft with the surface low still across most of the High Plains. It should actually expand a bit more into the area as the high pressure gets pushed off to the east. This should allow winds to stabilize around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph, especially closer to Central Kansas. Temperatures are going to be dependent on how much low level moisture moves in and how far it moves in. The current forecast reflects the low level moisture being more limited with any low level cloud cover or fog dissipating by the noon hour. In this case, high temperatures should climb into the 60s and low 70s. If those areas around the Nebraska border can remain under fog or cloud cover as guidance such as the RAP suggest, temperatures may barely be able to climb into the 50s. Chances for precipitation should lower through the day in either case as the low to mid level shifts off to the east.

Tomorrow night, a mix of clouds and clear skies is forecast ahead of the next upper trough. There are some timing issues with how this upper trough moves in and pushes the surface low into the area, but winds should remain around 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph due to the pressure gradient tightening. The conditions of interest is the possibility for some low level moisture to wrap in on the front side of the low. If so, Southeastern parts of the area may see fog develop.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 225 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Wednesday, the area is forecast to be under the upper low/trough axis that is swinging through the Plains. As alluded to at the end of the short term discussion, guidance still is split on how fast this upper low will progress. The difference is not only in the ensemble spreads, but even between the deterministic GFS and ECMWF. This difference is not likely to make much of a difference during the early daytime hours with temperatures likely warming into the 70s and winds around 10-20 mph. The main difference is more on the possibility of rain and storms in the afternoon/evening hours. If the upper low takes the more delayed/westerly path, then the entire area will have a chance for storms with the upper forcing and low level convergence likely backed more into Eastern Colorado. If the faster solution plays out, there is a chance the precipitation forms out of the area or for those just east of Highway 83. If the storms form in our area, there is a very low chance for severe weather, likely as hail. There is about 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE forecast along with 40 kts of shear. Otherwise, wind gusts aren't very likely given weak flow and tornadoes are unlikely due to dry low levels and weak low level shear.

The remainder of the work week is forecast to have the area either under zonal or northwest flow aloft. Thursday and Friday should be a bit cooler as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves into the Plains behind Wednesday system with highs currently forecast to be in the 60s. More chances for precipitation are forecast with both shortwaves possible in the upper flow and a chance for an area of low pressure to develop just south/southwest of the area and wrap moisture into the area. It looks right now like the eastern half of the area is favored precipitation each day. Should enough moisture wrap in, fog would also become a concern. Freezing fog or precip is currently unlikely as dewpoints would likely be above freezing in scenarios where we saturated enough for precipitation or fog.

The weekend is forecast to have a more stout upper low/trough move in from the west. The issue remains whether it will split into a more Southern and Northern United States system or if it will move through as a combined system. Close to near average temperatures and continued chances for precipitation remain forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

GLD: Low confidence in wind speed/direction this afternoon and Tuesday morning. VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period, with cloud cover generally confined to cirrus above ~12,000 ft AGL. A brief period of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled-out around sunrise Tuesday morning, however.. probabilities are low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 18Z TAFs. A broad surface low in CO will remain in close proximity to the Goodland terminal today. Current model guidance and observational trends suggest predominantly light/variable winds this afternoon. Winds will shift to the NE or E and strengthen to 20-30 knots around, or shortly before, sunset (~00Z), when virtually all guidance indicates that the surface low will drift southward over southeast CO. Breezy NE to E winds are expected to persist through the evening. Guidance suggests that NE to E winds will weaken overnight and become variable Tue morning.. as the surface low meanders east to the CO-KS border.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through sunset. Guidance suggests that MVFR ceilings will develop late this evening/ overnight and persist through late morning before lifting/ scattering to VFR by early Tue afternoon, near the end of the 18Z TAF period. ENE to E winds at 20-30 knots will prevail this afternoon into tonight. ENE to E winds will weaken to 10-15 knots by sunrise (~12Z Tue) and remain light through the rest of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.