textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds with gusts of 50-70 mph, extreme fire danger, and blowing dust are forecast to impact the Tri-State area today. Avoid burning and use extra caution if you are traveling.

- Saturday, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of the area due to the possibility dry conditions and strong winds.

- Wind gusts greater than 45 mph remain possible through Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 205 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Current observations show the surface low pressure and cold front closer to Southern Kansas with higher pressure and a colder air mass moving in over the area. Meanwhile, the upper trough continues to push south into the Plains. For the remainder of the hours before sunrise, winds should remain a bit on the lower side with gusts generally below 50 mph. There could be an isolated gust or two that pushes 60 mph.

Shortly after sunrise, skies are forecast to start clear for most of the area with maybe some higher level clouds remaining over counties like Norton, Graham, and Decatur. For most of the area, this will allow winds to pick up fairly quickly with the core of the high pressure northwest of the area and the lower pressure southeast of the area. Forecast remains on track for winds to generally be between 25 and 40 mph. As for the wind gusts, the main axis of the trough is forecast to shift more to the Great Lakes region and keep the Tri-State area on the tight height gradient on the backside. The consensus is that winds around 850-700mb should be about 50-60 kts with the area able to mix some of that down. With this, the High Wind Warning remains in effect as most of the area sees wind gusts of 55-75 mph, generally favoring the lower end of that range. The chance for winds above that continues to decrease as ensembles hint at a potential broadening of the trough which could weaken the gradient slightly over the area. This should still be enough to cause problems for high profile vehicles and loos objects. That being said, the cloud cover east of Highway 83 may keep those counties with wind gusts closer to 50 mph. Still would expect a few 60+ mph to mix in there. As a whole, the stronger wind gusts will favor Eastern Colorado and lower in intensity as you go east.

Winds are not the only hazard today. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire area as the strong wind gusts and dry conditions remain forecast to cause fires to spread rapidly and be very hard to control. The saving grace is that winds shouldn't shift in direction, making fire spread a little more predictable.

The other main hazard is the risk for blowing dust. Given what occurred as the front moved through this evening, dust is ready and primed to blow in the area, even for those who saw some sprinkles Thursday evening. The prime corridor for blowing dust looks to be Highway 25 and west, where steeper lapse rates with more sun and stronger winds will allow dust to blow and loft fairly easily. That being said, mixing heights are forecast to reach almost 10000ft. This may allow the dust to mix out and limit how impactful it can be. That being said, brownout conditions, especially near dust source regions remain forecast. Given the aforementioned mixing heights, the dust intensity may be at its worse late in the morning and around the noon hour before we fully mix out. Be alert for changing conditions and visibilities.

All of these hazards are forecast to occur roughly between 8am local time and sunset (roughly close to 4pm or 5pm) local time. As the sun sets, the inversion should help begin to weaken winds a bit. However, winds won't likely become calm as a shortwave is forecast to move through the larger trough and begin pushing the core of the high pressure into the area. This will leave the area in a strong enough pressure gradient for winds to remain around 15-25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

Saturday, the center of the high pressure is forecast to move over the area as the upper trough begins to shift east. The morning hours should start with strong winds again with speeds nearing 30 mph and gusts potentially reaching 60 mph for counties along the Colorado border. As a whole though, winds should be a bit lower as the gradients begin to weaken with the systems shifting east. Winds are also forecast to lower during the afternoon as the center of the high pressure moves over or near the area to the east. This should help the area begin the trend to calmer winds. However, the air mass advecting in is forecast to bring in even drier air, with dewpoint potentially reaching the negative teens. This is forecast to drop relative humidity into the teens for most of the area. This dry air with the initially strong winds are forecast to allow for critical fire weather conditions. With this, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued roughly from highway 25 and west. the main uncertainty is that the winds may begin to lighten as the relative humidity reaches its lowest point.

Saturday evening and night, we finally get a break from the winds as the pressure gradient relaxes and the inversion sets up. This should allow for a night with relatively calm winds. The issue is that clear skies forecast along with the calmer winds could allow for cold temperatures and wind chills in the negative single digits.

Sunday, is currently forecast to be fairly similar to yesterday (Saturday). A surface low is forecast to move through the area early in the day and increase the winds from the northwest. Speeds around 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph are currently forecast. That being said, the speeds may change as we get closer, as ensemble guidance shows a fair amount of spread on how intense the upper shortwave is that is swinging the low pressure through the area. Critical fire weather is not currently a concern as guidance is suggesting some decent moisture recovery. This would allow relative humidity to stay more in the 20s, even with warmer temperatures forecast.

Speaking of temperatures, temperatures today should cap in the 30s with the cold air advection. With the secondary surge of cold air, temperatures Saturday should be in the 20s. Meanwhile, Sunday is forecast to warm to near 50. Lows are forecast to generally be in the teens, but the area could see some upper single digits as the coldest air mass slides through Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 123 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Overnight Sunday into Monday, a cold front passes through our county warning area (CWA) dropping high temperatures for the day to the low 40s/upper 30s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the teens. We could see some precipitation with this frontal passage. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are <10% and the GEFS ensembles have a couple members showing light precipitation accumulation for the area. Blowing dust is not currently a concern with this frontal passage due to unfavorable lapse rates and weaker winds. Winds are forecast to be mild and variable with gusts around 25 mph.

A persistent upper level ridge in the Pacific Northwest quickly bounces back our high temperatures Tuesday to the upper 50s, with some areas seeing 60s. Downsloping winds from the southwest will also contribute to the warm up Tuesday. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to be in the low teens for the western portion of the CWA and low 20s for the eastern portion. Winds are expected to be mild and variable with gusts around 20 mph. Despite the low RH values, fire weather is currently not a concern for Tuesday due to mild winds and Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values below 25 for our Colorado counties.

Wednesday continues to be warm and mild as we remain in a mostly zonal upper level pattern. High temperatures are forecast in the 50s and lows in the upper teens. Things will cool slightly Thursday with highs forecast in the 40s. Winds are forecast to be mild and variable both days with gusts up to 25 mph.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 424 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

For KGLD... Conditions are forecast to start VFR with winds closer to to 25 kts. There could be some low level wind shear until 15Z as winds around a few hundred feet increase to 50 kts. Around 15Z, winds of 40-55 kts are forecast to begin mixing to the surface. This should lead to some blowing dust developing that initially starts out with visibility above 3SM, but likely lowering to around 0-2SM around or shortly after 18Z. The forecast has the blowing dust ending and winds beginning to slowly weaken around 21-23Z. After that, winds should remain around 25 kts again, but be on the look out for low level wind shear of 45-50 kts at a few hundred feet after 00Z.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period, but will need to keep an eye out for blowing dust. While the worst of the blowing dust should stay east of the terminal, there could be patches with visibility of 0-2SM. Otherwise, be alert for some early low level wind shear with speed at a few hundred feet increasing to around 50 kts through 15Z. Low level wind shear will be a concern again during the evening hours with winds a few hundred feet above the surface forecast to remain around 45-50 kts. Gusts at the surface between 15 and 23Z should generally be between 40 and 50 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 631 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Friday: Northwest winds will have the potential of gusting as high as 65mph. A few localized 70mph gusts may be possible. Minimum relative humidity values will fall into the teens to low 20s for most of the area. GFDI values are also expected to be high across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all but Norton and Graham counties in Kansas. Confidence was not as high in conditions truly reaching critical levels for an extended period of time in these locations. Despite remaining in the watch, at least elevated fire weather conditions are expected. Regardless of location, with the potential for strong winds and dry conditions, any fires that are able to ignite will show rapid growth. Plumes of blowing dust will also be a concern.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Red Flag Warning from 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042. CO...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ090>092. Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for COZ252>254. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for COZ252>254. NE...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for NEZ079>081. Red Flag Warning from 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for NEZ079>081. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for NEZ079-080.