textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and dry conditions through Saturday.

- Cold front Saturday night with windy conditions through Sunday afternoon.

- Light snow is forecast Saturday night through Sunday morning with some minor impacts due to blowing snow as snow is falling. This concern is currently highest across northeast Colorado and along and west of Highway 25 in NW Kansas. An additional hazard of re-freeze is possible as well as temperatures may not get above freezing.

- Colder on Sunday and Monday with wind chills in the single digits below zero Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 130 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

Mainly zonal synoptic flow continues across the area with some very subtle shortwaves embedded within the flow leading to patches of upper level clouds. For today, the continued warm pattern remains in place with highs again forecast in the 60s-70s with near record to record highs again on the table. Winds are forecast to remain from the south around 10-15 mph with some sporadic gusts to 20 mph mainly along and west of the Kansas/Colorado line due to a slightly better 850mb jet just above the mixing layer. Similar to Thursday, partly to mostly cloudy skies look to continue with the exception of the east where a weak high pressure system is forecast to be located. Temperatures for tonight are forecast to be similar as the past previous night generally around freezing into the mid 30s as SSW winds will prevail through the night.

Saturday, mild temperatures continue. A developing surface low across SW Kansas will aid in northern portions of the area seeing more of a northerly wind keeping temperatures a little cooler. I did nudge temperatures up a few degrees however as temperatures have been overdoing the current forecast by 1-3 degrees each day recently. Winds may be a little breezy again along and west of the Kansas/Colorado state line. NAM is showing a localized stronger 30- 35 knot 850mb jet which may yield some gusts of 25-30 mph during the afternoon as mixing heights are forecast to be around 2500-3500 feet during this time. A few hours of elevated fire weather conditions may develop across Yuma, Kit Carson, Cheyenne (KS) and Sherman counties Saturday afternoon if this does occur.

The next feature of interest and the most impactful of the current forecast occurs with a cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning. Guidance continues to favor a closer to Sunday morning passage with the strongest cold air advection occurring starting around 5am MT. Winds are forecast to increase as well with and behind the front sustained around 25-30 knots and potentially gusting 40knots based on current forecast mixing heights and NAM and GFS forecast soundings during the same time frame and last through the majority of the day with gust potential lowering after 18Z. A shortwave within the flow will also lead to additional lift leading to rain initially then changing over to snow as stronger cold air advection moves in. Currently light snow is forecast favoring areas along and west of a McCook to Tribune line. Via 00Z NAM cross section analysis did notice that some theta e lapse rates around 0 to -1 are seen within the dendritic growth zone which may lead to some localized moderate snowfall due to pockets of conditional instability being present. This aligns generally well with some of the GEFs and ECMWF ensemble members that show some spotty higher amounts as well. The exact location of where these may be, should they occur, is still being worked out. A eventual transition to more of a drier snow will occur Sunday morning as colder air around of -6 to -10C at 850mb moves in leading to some blowing snow concerns as snow falls as winds of 20-30 knots remain through the day. Using the Aberdeen blowing snow model with current forecast conditions leads to around a 30-40% chance of visibility falling below 1/2 mile. The other potential hazard that may ensue is re-freeze potential on roads and sidewalks, especially bridges and overpasses from any precipitation that falls as strong cold air advection will continue to filter in. I continue to go colder with high temperatures for the day with moderate to high confidence that cloud cover will linger through the day and 850mb temps of -5-8C remaining in place through the afternoon. If the front were to move through quicker then perhaps high temperatures may be a little warmer than currently forecast but currently confidence in that occurring is around 20%.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 126 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

We'll start off the long-term with a trough exiting the area to the east. This is the trough that will have brought winter weather potential to the CWA over the weekend. As the trough exits, it will pull in cold, northwesterly air into the CWA. This will lead to cold temperatures Monday morning. Temperatures in the southeastern CWA look to drop into the low to mid teens with the rest of the area dropping to around 10 degrees. There is a 25% chance temperatures along and north of U.S. 34, as well as locations in eastern Colorado drop into the mid single digits. Northwesterly winds Monday morning will be gradually weakening, but will still be around 10-15 kts come sunrise. These winds and temperatures have a 70-80% chance of creating wind chills between 0 to -5F over about half of the CWA.

GFS, ECMWF, and CMC-NH are also showing a trailing shortwave trough moving across the CWA Monday morning, which could lead to some additional flurries. Confidence in additional snow accumulation after 0Z Monday is currently around 10%.

Throughout the day Monday and overnight, a ridge will build in, allowing temperatures to start a warming trend through the long- term. Highs on Monday should warm into the mid 30s to near 40, but Tuesday and Wednesday look to warm into the upper 40s to low 50s. Overnight temperatures will also be warming, with Monday night's lows largely remaining in the mid to upper teens and the following two nights remaining in the 20s.

Tuesday, RH values are expected to dry to around 20% for areas along and south of U.S. 40. Winds are expected to remain under 15 kts, so fire weather is not a notable concern at this time. This is the best day for fire weather concerns, so we'll continue to keep an eye on it.

Thursday, long range guidance is showing a trough move southeast over the Great Lakes, pushing the polar jet slightly to the southwest. This will lead in mildly cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday. The northeastern CWA looks to be capped out in the low 40s with the southwestern CWA warming to near 50. Overnight lows don't seem to be impacted too much, likely remaining around 20 for lows.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 400 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period. West- southwest winds are forecast along with a period of some gusts around 20 knots for GLD for the afternoon hours. A gradual shift to more of a south-southeast direction is forecast with a departing high across southwest Kansas before returning back to to a west-southwest direction. High clouds are forecast to continue to trek across the area through the day as well. May need to keep an eye on some LLWS for each terminal this evening but confidence is not quite there to introduce into the TAF at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 130 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

================================ Record Highs for December 26 ================================ Burlington.........77 in 1980 current forecast....67 Goodland...........69 in 2005 current forecast....69 McCook.............68 in 2008 current forecast....70 Hill City..........73 in 2021 current forecast....72

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.