textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect relatively drier conditions and a warming trend through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 405 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Through this Afternoon: Modest surface high pressure will build southeastward from Wyoming into northwest Kansas this morning as shortwave energy currently progressing ENE across the Nebraska Panhandle lifts NE into central South Dakota. Expect ongoing showers/storms to end from west-to-east after sunrise (~12-14Z) this morning, followed by a clearing trend during the late morning and early afternoon with highs in the 60's.

This Evening: Another upper level disturbance (located over eastern WA and northern ID at 09Z this morning) will dig SSE toward the 4-Corners this afternoon, track east across the central Rockies (this evening) and lift NE-NNE across the Nebraska Panhandle (tonight). In contrast to yesterday evening and this morning, a dry/stable airmass will [1] preclude convective development over the Goodland CWA and [2] be hard- pressed to maintain/support any upstream development (immediate lee of the Rockies, Palmer Divide) that may approach from the west during the evening.

Tonight-Saturday: Yet another upper level disturbance (located over southern British Columbia at 09Z this morning) will dig SSE through the northern Rockies tonight then track east along/near the KS-NE border on Sat. Guidance suggests that widespread convection over the Southern Plains (TX-OK) tonight will alter the MSLP-850 mb height pattern to such an extent that, southerly return flow / low-level moisture advection will be delayed until Sat eve-night. If this is the case, the thermodynamic environment over the Tri-State Area would be less-supportive of convective development. If focused upper level forcing were present, e.g. DPVA associated with an upper level disturbance progressing eastward along/near the KS-NE border during the late aft-eve, less-supportive could be sufficient-enough.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

***Synopsis***

Upper-level troughing looks to be moving through the forecast region Saturday. A surface low to the south of the forecast area is favored to establish a southerly return flow. This return feature may last through the end of the forecast period, as GEFS and EC ensemble guidance favor ridging overhead with troughing to the west beginning Sunday, and potentially lasting through the end of the forecast period. There are indications that southwesterly flow establishes itself overhead by Tuesday morning, which could allow some shortwave systems to traverse the area. GEFS guidance is more in favor with this solution than the EC, as the GEFS pushes the trough across the Western United States moves eastward faster. This may allow a cold front to cross the forecast region as early as Wednesday.

***Discussion***

The southerly return flow appears to favor warm and moist conditions throughout the long term period. Highs look to center themselves in the 70s and 80s. LREF guidance also suggests that dew points are favored in the 40s and 50s. Troughing setting up to the west may support multiple days of precipitation to occur, especially if southwesterly upper-level flow can eject shortwave systems into the area. Ensemble guidance is consistent on Sunday-Thursday having potential for over 1000 J/kg of CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability). This could support thunderstorm development each day. However, LREF mean 500-mb winds are not expected to get much higher than 25 kts, which would indicate a marginal severe potential at best for these thunderstorms. NBM guidance suggests that the greatest opportunity for precipitation to occur is on Wednesday and Thursday, where there are wide zones of 30-45% chances of greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation across the area. This may be associated with a faster progression of the trough eastward toward the forecast region, enhancing how many thunderstorms are able to develop. Even so, the amount of precipitation any one location receives will be dependent on where storms track. Light showers to weak thunderstorms appear to be the most likely scenario at this time for the long term. One final point to add is that critical fire weather appears to be a minimal threat. The one exception to this may be on Tuesday, not because relative humidity values are low, but because wind gusts may reach the 40-45 mph range. If this occurs, existing fires may be capable of spreading rapidly. Otherwise, hazards look to be kept to a minimum next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 440 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Showers and storms will abate from west-to-east and low ceilings will lift/scatter to VFR within a few hours after sunrise (~12-14Z) this morning. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter, through the remainder of the TAF period. NW winds at ~10 knots are expected to increase to 15-20 knots w/gusts to ~25 knots a few hours after sunrise, as high pressure builds southeastward from WY into northwest KS. Breezy NW winds will persist through late morning, decrease to 12-15 knots during the early to mid afternoon, veer to the N and decrease to ~10 knots during the late afternoon then become light/variable after sunset.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.