textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow accumulations less than 1 inch are possible this afternoon and evening mainly north of Interstate 70.

- Wind chills as low as -15 F are possible late tonight into Saturday morning, mainly for locations east of Highway 83.

- Above average temperatures in the 50s to around 60 are forecast to return Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 209 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Large scale pattern continues to feature ridging in the western CONUS and larger troughing over the Great Lakes and eastern US, with northwest flow over the Central High Plains. A stronger mid level shortwave trough is moving across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest and should drop south through the day, and PVA along the western extent of this feature moves into the tri- state region through this afternoon and evening. The window for moisture advection is limited and drier air in place ahead of this will tend to limit potential amounts. The strongest forcing remains to the north and east of our region, however there should be enough to support at least some potential for measurable snowfall as this progressing northeast to southwest through our CWA. The general trend in HREF/NBM has significantly lowered probabilities for more than a dusting (less than 0.5") and current chances for 1" are now less than 10% for much of our area (a few outliers still show those types of amounts north of I-70). Considering these trends flurries (non measurable) may be favored, with only some areas receiving measurable amounts this afternoon through this evening. Another mid level shortwave trough passes through the region to the north Saturday, but chances for measurable precipitation are lower for much of the region with a 30% for very light rain or snow (depending on timing) mainly in southwest Nebraska.

Regarding temperatures/wind chills: A frontal zone lingering over our CWA over the next several days, and while there is a cold front and push of CAA from the northeast with the shortwave later today/tonight the coldest air aloft tends to remain farther to the east creating a relatively larger spread in potential temperatures west to east in our CWA each day. The area to monitor for lower temperatures (below zero) and potential wind chill impacts remains east of Highway 83 with a chance (20%) for wind chills -15F or lower in Norton/Graham counties (based on combined ensemble systems). Due to the potential for clouds to linger or fill back in from the west, and winds to remain light most wind chills will tend to be 5 to 10 below in our east during the coldest part of the morning hours Saturday. We will monitor trends as a few degrees colder or a little more wind could push conditions into advisory criteria in our east Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 209 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be unseasonably warm as persistent upper level ridging places our region in a northwesterly flow. Sunday, high temperatures are forecast in the upper 50s with some areas seeing highs in the low 60s. Mild westerly winds are expected with gusts forecast between 20-25 mph. The western portion of the county warning area (CWA) is expected to be on the higher end of wind gusts. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low 20s for the western half of the CWA. Given the higher temperatures and downsloping westerly winds, RH values could drop further and approach critical fire weather conditions Sunday.

Temperatures continue to warm Monday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s for the CWA. Lows are forecast in the 20s. Winds are mild and variable to start off the day, but pick up in the afternoon. Northwesterly winds with gusts from 25-30 mph possible for Kit Carson and Yuma counties.

Monday afternoon, we could have a brief period of critical fire weather for Kit Carson and Yuma counties. RH values are forecast at 18% and Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are approximately 20. RH values could further drop depending on how Sunday's downsloping winds affect overall RH values. Winds calm down overnight and return to our typical diurnal pattern.

A slight cool down occurs Tuesday as a trough axis sweeps through our region. High temperatures are forecast in the 50s with lows in the 20s. RH values bounce back up to the high 20s/low 30s, so fire weather is not currently a concern despite wind gusts from 20-30 mph forecast. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, there is a slight chance for precipitation as a series of shortwaves make their way through the Rocky Mountains. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are less than 20% with this disturbance. Wednesday, high temperatures are forecast in the upper 40s and lows in the 20s. Thursday we are back to a predominantly northwest flow bringing high temperatures back up to the upper 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 428 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

MVFR stratus is in place across western NE and is beginning to fill in over KMCK early in the TAF period . This stratus is expected to progress from the northeast to southwest into northwest KS with impacts developing at KGLD by this afternoon and lasting through the end of the TAF period. Drier air does arrive at KMCK on the back side of a cold front and model trends support the stratus clearing to the northeast and VFR at KMCK by 00Z today.

Winds will tend to vary across the region with westerly winds at KGLD around 10kt shifting to the north and becoming gusty around midday. Winds at both sites shift to the northeast and east as the front and surface high builds to the east late this afternoon into tonight. Eventually low pressure develops in the west and southerly flow redevelops Saturday morning at KGLD. At KMCK surface gradient will tend to be much weaker with variable winds around 5kt in the morning and overnight periods.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.