textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Monday there is a slight risk for severe storms in the afternoon and evening for the entire area. Supercells will be possible, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and blowing dust, and perhaps a tornado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Sunday will be dry as the upper low lifts into Montana allowing a ridge to build over the Southern and Central Plains. There is a weak shortwave trough riding up the ridge axis from Colorado, but with surface dew points in the 30s and 40s it will be too dry for any precipitation chances. Afternoon relative humidity minimums will fall into the teens, but with light winds no fire weather concerns are anticipated. Temperatures will warm well into the 80s for highs.

A weak cold front will move through Sunday night with northeasterly surface winds by Monday morning as the front settles into southwest Kansas. Models show a low deepening on the front Monday in southeast Colorado, with the resultant pressure gradient strengthening east to southeast winds across the area. This will advect dew points in the 40s and 50s as far west as the Front Range. A weak wave in the southwest flow aloft, possibly phasing with one traversing the base of the upper low still in Montana, will provide synoptic scale lift. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop in two areas: first, with convergence near the surface low in southeast Colorado during the mid afternoon, and second, with upslope flow along the Front Range during the late afternoon. The southern storms will have up to 2000 j/k of SBCAPE to work with and 40-50 kts of deep layer shear. CAMs somewhat divided on whether they will have a more easterly motion, keeping them south of the area, or northeasterly, which would would bring them into areas south of Interstate 70 in Kansas by 00z. Given the environmental parameters, supercells will be possible with a risk for large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Blowing dust and localized dust storms may also be possible given a full day of warming on Sunday drying out top soil. During the evening hours, additional storms may move in from the west out of Colorado, although confidence is slightly lower as the CAMs are not in good agreement on whether or not they will develop. Nonetheless, MUCAPE and deep layer shear remain quite favorable through the evening hours and the severe threat should continue, gradually weakening overnight as they move east. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures on Monday will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

Tuesday high temperatures are in the 80s and lows in the 50s. The winds look to be from the southeast and relatively calm. There is precipation chances for the day. The main timing looks to be in the early evening into the night. CAPE is the range of 1000-1500 J/kg, with little to no shear, which would lead to very little severe chances. Looking at the PoPs there is 50-60% chance. There is about a 30-50% of exceeding 0.10". The PWATs for the CWA show 1"-1.30". Looking at GFS sounds the atmosphere is deeply saturated. Also looking Corfidi up and downshear magnitude would be around or under 30 kts. This would suggest the storms/showers would be slow-moving or stationary.

For the extended period of the week, the low pressure system to the northwest of the ridge will kick out some shortwave troughs that will bring precipitation chances to the region. This does look to be on the weaker side as it quickly crumbles away come Wednesday. Then the upper flow transitions to more zonal flow. Towards next weekend there are signs of a trough that moves into the area from the Pacific Northwest.

Guidance has been showing the high temperatures to be in the 80s for the majority of this period. For Friday and Saturday the temperatures warm up a bit to the low 90s, as the upper pattern transitions. The lows are forecast to be in the 50-60s range. Wednesday through Friday PoPs are in the 20-60% range during the each day's afternoon/evening hours. Saturday Precipitation chances decrease to 10-30%. As for severe potential, there is no strong signal for anything yet, but nothing can be ruled out since this is about 5-7 days out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions with most sunny/clear skies are forecast. There may be a few sprinkles this evening and tonight, but chances for thunderstorms are less than 5%. Otherwise, winds are forecast to vary in direction through the day before steading more from the east late tonight. Speeds should be around or below 10 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.