textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to record high temperatures are possible across portions of the area Christmas Day. No white Christmas this year.

- Cooling trend this weekend with near-average temperatures on Sunday followed by a warming/moderating trend early next week.

- Light snow is possible over a limited portion of the area Sunday morning, mainly west and north of Goodland. Little to no accumulation/impacts expected at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1258 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows southerly flow from the West Coast into the Great Basin ahead of a trough approaching from the west. A ridge continued over Mexico and the Gulf, extending north into the Plains. Water vapor imagery shows dry air over the Central Plains, but higher water vapor concentration were moving in from the west.

For the rest of today light winds will continue over the forecast area as the stronger low level winds shift out of the forecast area, or the warm air advection has produced an inversion to prevent the breezy low level winds from reaching the ground where these winds have yet to move east.

Tonight dew points around 30F will keep lows very warm for this time of year; near record values for the warmest low depending on what day the low occurs. Moisture advection should remain just east of the forecast area, so am not anticipating any fog at this time.

Thursday a backdoor cold front will brush the eastern part of the forecast area. This will move cold air advection over locations roughly east of Highway 83. However highs still look to be 20 degrees above normal. Over the western part of the forecast area clouds will move in. Raised highs a few degrees between the clouds moving in from the west and the cooler air mass over the eastern part of the forecast area as the setup looks similar to today and Monday for highs being near record values. This also lines up well with the probability for high temperatures exceeding 74F. However, based on past warm days this month the current forecast may still be two to three degrees too cool. Due to the large dew point depressions overhead, am not anticipating any precipitation with the frontal passage.

Thursday night rather high dew points for this time of year will cause record to near record values for the warmest lows. There will be weak dry air advection which should prevent fog from forming.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 400 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Friday-Saturday: Guidance indicates that the Tri-State area will be situated on the subsident southern periphery /anticyclonic shear side/ of a strong SW or WSW upper level jet.. in a low-level (surface to 850 mb) pattern characterized by broad troughing in the lee of the Rockies and modest southerly (Fri) to WSW (Sat) flow. Expect dry conditions and well above average temperatures. Forecast soundings suggest that extensive high overcast (a thick veil of orographically enhanced cirrus) may have a sensible impact on diurnal heating and mixing on both days, limiting highs to ~60-70F.

Sunday (Concise): Expect breezy N winds and colder temperatures in the wake of an early morning cold frontal passage.. with below average highs (mid-upper 30's) and near average overnight (Monday morning) lows in the teens. A short period of light snow cannot be ruled-out during the morning, mainly north and west of Goodland. Impactful weather is presently not anticipated.

Feature [1]: Robust shortwave energy in British Columbia (Fri) will dig SE into the Rockies (Sat) then track ESE-E across the Central and Northern Plains (Sat night-Sun) and E across the Central and Northern Mississippi River Valley (Sun-Sun night).

Feature [2]: An increasingly sheared, positively tilted upper trough moving ashore the Pacific Coast (Fri) will slow in forward progress and assume a SW-NE orientation (extending northeastward from central CA to the northern Rockies) Fri night-Sat then undergo a complex transition (splitting/ fracturing in two) on Sat-Sun.. the southern portion of which will evolve into a cut-off low that retrogrades and stalls offshore the southern Pacific Coast and the northern portion of which will slowly progress east across the Rockies (Sat) and Central/Northern Plains (Sat night-Sun).

Sunday (Detailed): Profound synoptic subsidence in the wake of Feature [1] will drive an Arctic airmass southeastward from Alberta/Saskatchewan into Montana/Dakotas (Sat) and Upper Midwest (Sun). Guidance indicates that the core of the Arctic airmass (characterized by 850 mb temps -18 to -24C) will be confined to the Dakotas and Upper Midwest and that the southern/modified fringe of said airmass (850 mb temps -5 to -10C) will surge southward into the Tri-State area early Sunday morning (~06-12Z, prior to sunrise).. the leading edge of which will manifest as a northerly wind shift and effective cold frontal passage. Strong cold advection and abrupt surface pressure rises in the immediate wake of the front may foster a short (~2-5 hour) period of breezy to strong N winds Sunday morning. GFS forecast soundings indicate ~30-40 knot northerly low-level flow within and throughout a shallow (~2,000 ft) mixed layer, suggesting sustained winds ~25-35 mph and gusts to ~45 mph. It should be noted that, at this range, the timing of the frontal passage and magnitude of wind are difficult to ascertain with precision. Challenging precipitation forecast. A fair amount of uncertainty exists with regard to the evolution (southern extent/track, proximity to the Tri-State area) of Feature [1] Sat night into Sun, when it will likely interact with the northern portion of Feature [2]. 12 UTC 12/24 operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF are similar in the sense that both suggest a potential for light precip (snow) in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties Sunday morning (mainly between 06-18Z, midnight-noon).. dissimilar in the sense that the GFS indicates a trace to 0.01" and the ECMWF indicates 0.10" to 0.20" liquid equivalent. At this range, and in such a complex pattern, it's difficult to find a rational basis to prefer one model solution over another. From a scenario standpoint, available guidance suggests that the worst case would be breezy N winds and light accumulating snow (mainly in eastern CO) Sun morning.. and that the best case would be breezy N winds and no measurable precipitation.

Monday-Wednesday: Long range guidance continues to indicate that NW flow aloft will prevail in the lee of the Rockies early- mid next week.. between an amplifying western CONUS ridge and pronounced troughing /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS. Expect dry conditions and a warming/moderating trend, with highs in the 40's (Mon) and 50's (Tue-Wed).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1014 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period for KMCK and KGLD. KMCK will have some LIFR fog and stratus to the east, but this should remain well clear of the airport. If the fog and stratus surge west, impacts would be between 13-18Z. Winds will remain light and variable for KMCK until 0-6Z, when westerly winds are expected. KGLD is forecast to see some "stronger" winds from the west-southwest during the day with some gusts near 20 kts possible.

For the KGLD and KMCK areas, Rudolph can give his nose a break.

CLIMATE

Issued at 142 AM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Well above average temperatures will persist through the remainder of the week. Some locations may approach monthly (December)record highs. For reference, average highs this time of year are ~40F.

================================ Record Warmest Lows December 25 ================================ Burlington.........34 in 1928 Goodland...........35 in 1971 McCook.............27 in 2024 Hill City..........35 in 1959

================================ Record Highs for December 25 ================================ Burlington.........67 in 1929 Goodland...........74 in 1950 McCook.............70 in 1929 Hill City..........76 in 1950

================================ Record Warmest Lows December 26 ================================ Burlington.........34 in 2005 Goodland...........36 in 1980 McCook.............33 in 1979 Hill City..........36 in 2024

================================ Record Highs for December 26 ================================ Burlington.........77 in 1980 Goodland...........69 in 2005 McCook.............68 in 2008 Hill City..........73 in 2021

================================ Monthly (December) Record Highs ================================ Burlington.........81 in 1939 Goodland...........83 in 1964 McCook.............81 in 1964 Hill City..........83 in 1964

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.