textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend Sunday into Monday.

- Heightened risk for heat related stress on Monday, when air temps and heat indices ~99 to 103F are expected during the afternoon, hottest along/east of Hwy 83.

- Continued hot, albeit slightly cooler, with highs in the mid 90's on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Late aft-eve storm chances may return by mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A pronounced upper level ridge centered over the 4-Corners (today) will broaden and extend eastward across the central Rockies (Sun) and adjoining portions of the High Plains (Mon).

Primarily a persistence forecast. Weak tropospheric flow beneath the ridge, weak to neutral horizontal thermal advection and the absence of convection (i.e. no outflow) over or upstream of the Tri-State Area, temperatures will largely be a function of diurnal heating/insolation and gradual (day-to-day) airmass modification. For Sunday and Monday, expect sensible weather conditions similar to today, albeit slightly warmer each day, culminating in highs (and heat indices) ~99-103F on Monday. Despite weak tropospheric flow and little in the way of mechanical mixing, warmer temperatures will, nevertheless, foster a modest day-to-day increase in mixed-layer depth (i.e. deeper vertical mixing) and a corresponding decrease in surface dewpoints during peak heating, keeping apparent temperatures (heat indices) at or below air temperatures.. i.e. below Heat Advisory criteria.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Tuesday: The dominant 500 mb ridge of high pressure continues on Tuesday, but the axis slowly migrates southward. While the core of the higher heat (temperatures) will start to wane, low level south to southeasterly flow will maintain a warm and somewhat humid air mass across the tri-state area. High temperatures will generally sit in the low to mid 90s. Looking at the National Blend of Models (NBM) probabilistic data, max temperatures exceeding 95 (which is near to slightly above normal for this time of year) has fallen to around 60% or less for Tuesday (indicating a gradually cooling trend) as a weak cool front moves through the region. Heat indices will climb in the low to mid 90s as warm weather continues.

Wednesday-Saturday: A more noticeable pattern shift arrives by Wednesday and persists through the end of the week. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the upper level ridge of high pressure will flatten out and be suppressed to the south and the central high plains region has a quasi-zonal to northwest flow regime aloft with embedded short wave disturbances with decent vorticity spin within the main flow. As a weak frontal boundary sags south into the area, high temperatures thursday and friday will pull back a bit into the lower 90s for afternoon highs, although some spots in eastern Colorado may only reach the upper 80s.

Model forecast soundings have some decent deep layer shear and some indication of cape (instability) profiles that could allow for some elevated convection to fire up during the afternoon hours, especially Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evenings. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time, any stronger storms could produce a damaging downburst with lots of lower dry air in place with inverted v type soundings.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 335 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions and light (~6-12 knot) easterly to southerly winds will rule through the TAF period at both terminals, with cloud cover confined to scattered diurnal cumulus ~8,000 to 10,000 ft AGL.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.