textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered storms forecast to develop along and north of I-80 in NE this afternoon may evolve into a cluster that tracks southward into portions of northwest KS this evening. Severe storms capable of producing 70 mph winds and a few instances of quarter to ping pong ball size hail are possible, mainly north of I-70 and east of Hwy 25 between 8 PM - 1 AM CDT.

- Near average temperatures today followed by a warming trend, with highs peaking in the upper 90's to lower 100's Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Upper ridge remains over the Four Corners today resulting in northwest flow over the Central Plains. CAMs show convective initiation occurring later this afternoon near the Black Hills and northern Nebraska. Environment in that area will be weakly to moderately unstable but highly sheared with up to 45 kts of 0-6 km shear. A supercell is likely to develop and move south through this evening. However, both instability and shear weaken across southwest Nebraska, throwing some doubt on how far south any supercell will manage to survive. CAMs suggest it will weaken and dissipate north of the Kansas border late this evening. Nonetheless, will maintain the messaging for the severe threat since supercells can be persistent. Confidence is low on the severe threat this far south.

On Friday, the upper ridge will flatten out a bit resulting in zonal flow across northern Colorado and the adjacent plains. Will see an embedded wave move through in the afternoon with scattered convection developing in the mountains and Front Range and moving east. The environment will be weakly unstable with deep layer shear less than 20 kts across Colorado but increasing to near 30 kts at the Kansas border. Storms will have a difficult time making into the area during the evening, with only low probabilities, less than 20%, of showers or an isolated thunderstorm. Severe storms are not anticipated.

Over the weekend, the ridge will shift east into the southern plains on Saturday and amplify into Missouri by Sunday. This will result in a southwest flow over the Central Rockies and adjacent plains. In this pattern would expect scattered afternoon convection to develop in the higher terrain to the west and move into the area at night. However, both shear and instability are weak and the probability of severe weather will be low.

Temperatures will be much above normal through the period, with mid 90s on Friday and upper 90s to lower 100s Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon relative humidity will be falling below 20% at times, but winds are expected to be light and no fire weather concerns are anticipated.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 231 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Synoptically, on Sunday the upper level ridge begins to set up over the SE CONUS while a trough begins to move into the Pacific Northwest. This change will transition our upper level flow to be primarily out of the west to southwest. During this period, shortwaves are expected to move through the area, potentially increasing precipation chances.

Throughout the period, high temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 90s. Sunday is currently forecast to be the warmest day, with highs in the 90s for the majority of the CWA. Areas east of Hwy 83 have the best chance of seeing triple digits temperatures on Sunday. The "coolest" day is currently forecast to be Monday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Winds are expected to mainly remain calm through the early part of the week.

Regarding precipitation, there is potential for showers and storms each afternoon. Sunday and Monday currently have the highest potential with PoPs, ranging from 25-50% across the area. As for severe potential, while shear values appear to be decent, guidance suggests that CAPE values may limit storm development. This could result in more showers than storms. From Tuesday onward, precipitation chances begin to taper off, with PoPs in the 10-20% range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1108 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. There is a low probability, less than 20%, of a thunderstorm impacting either terminal late this evening or overnight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.