textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A High Wind Warning is in effect starting this evening as a cold front brings sporadic gusts up to 60 mph across the area.

- The High Wind Warning continues through tomorrow as another round of wind gusts between 50 and 65 mph are possible during the morning and afternoon hours. There is a low chance that gusts could reach 80 mph.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire area Thursday as well. Fires could exhibit explosive growth and be impossible to control.

- Blowing dust is also possible Thursday. Be alert for changing conditions and brownouts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 158 PM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

Cloud cover has moved in over the area this afternoon, capping temperatures in the 50s for most of the area so far. There are a few 60s and any breaks in the clouds should allow for more areas to reach the 60s. The cloud cover and cooler temperatures have prevented us from reaching critical fire weather criteria with relative humidity generally above 25%. Winds still remain elevated as the upper trough pushes into the Plains and the surface low begins to near the area.

This evening, the winds are forecast to briefly let up around sunset as the inversion begins to develop. However, the reprieve will be short lived as a cold front is forecast to push through the area with the trough and surface low advancing east. As the front moves through, it is forecast to mix down some of the stronger winds above the surface and allow for brief gusts around 50-60 mph along the front. This has led to the high Wind Warning being pushed up to this evening. On the back side, pressure rises of ~6mb per 3 hours should allow winds to sustain around 30 mph and gusts around 45-50 mph. The current timing is for the front to enter the Tri-State border area around 7-8pm MT / 8-9pm CT and exit the area close to midnight. Winds should lower slightly as the night goes on and the front gets farther away. Temperatures should drop into the 30s with a few 20s out west as the colder air moves in.

For Thursday, confidence has increased in a multiple hazard day. The forecast remains on track for the trough to continue to push east and dig south. This will keep the height gradients between 850mb and 500 mb tight, and allow for another round of strong wind gusts. As the sun comes up and begins to mix near the surface, the strong winds that were held up by the inversion should begin mixing to the surface. The current forecast favors gusts around 50-65 mph, while some of the stronger guidance suggests gusts could reach 80 mph. The strongest wind gusts should be closer to North-Central Kansas and South-Central Nebraska, which means southwestern portions of the area may be far enough away to avoid the worst of the gusts. Winds are forecast to sustain around 30 mph and are unlikely to get much stronger unless the front stay closer to the area and tightens the pressure gradient. As the sun heats the surface, lapse rates should increase enough to begin lofting dust, especially with the strong wind speeds. With the colder air moving in though, the lapse rates around 1-2km are forecast to be low. As mixing heights around 5000ft suggest, there may be a cap in place to hold the dust and concentration. This should lead to plumes of blowing dust across the area, but again favoring northeastern parts of the area. Be alert for changing conditions and brownout conditions. Finally, a Red Flag Warning has also been issued for the area. With the dry conditions we have had recently and the forecast of fairly strong winds, fires may become very hard if not impossible to control. With this, felt a Red Flag Warning is needed. Either way, it will not be a good day to burn.

There is a 15-20% chance that the area could see lighter winds and lesser impacts. A couple of the ensemble members were suggesting that the upper trough may push fast enough to the east that the tighter height gradients and pressure gradients are east of the area tomorrow. Winds would still be elevated, but more likely to be 20mph gust 40 to 45 mph. In this scenario, blowing dust would be much more isolated and the fire danger would be a little lower.

Tomorrow evening and night, the winds should lower initially as the inversion sets up and temperatures cool down quickly. However, winds should pick up around midnight as the next upper trough begins to move along the Northern Plains and develop low pressure along the Front Range. This should mix the lower levels and either steady or warm temperatures. Speeds are forecast to reach 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 215 PM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

Friday, the upper trough is forecast to continue to push east along the Northern Plains and Canada. While much further north and limiting impacts, it is still forecast to help develop the low pressure along the Front Range and increase the winds to around 10- 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph. With dry air in place, relative humidity is forecast to drop into the teens, bringing a chance for critical fire weather conditions. The best chances should be for counties along the Colorado border. Similar to today though, there is a chance that cloud cover may move through the upper flow and shield the area. In this case, relative humidity may not be able to drop into the teens with cooler temperatures due to the clouds. Depending on how much moisture moves through, a few showers are also possible.

The weekend is forecast to remain a bit on the cooler side, but still above average for the time of year as the area sits under northwest flow aloft. Highs are forecast to be in the 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s. As long as a shortwave doesn't move through and stays north, winds should generally be around 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Christmas week continues to look relatively nice and mild for now as the upper pattern transitions more to a zonal or slightly ridged flow. Highs in the 60s with winds generally below 20 mph are forecast, along with dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 428 PM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

Complicated TAF forecast for this period as a cold front moving through ~02-03Z over KGLD and ~03-04Z over KMCK with winds becoming gusty to ~45 kts with the frontal passage out of the northwest some local blowing dust can't be ruled out tonight, though it would likely be short lived. A brief lull in the winds is expected around sunrise before winds pick up again Thursday morning after 14Z. The strongest winds with gusts to ~50 kts are currently favoring over the KMCK terminal through ~22-23Z tomorrow. KGLD could see the high winds of 40-50 kts through ~21-22Z. LLWS at ~200 ft is also a concern for the terminals through ~16Z Thursday, shifting from southwest to northwest with the frontal passage at 35-45 kts. Blowing dust could become more of an issue Thursday with local plumes of dust developing due to the winds and creating visibility restrictions. Be alert for rapidly changing conditions and the possibility of brown out conditions.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Thursday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Red Flag Warning from 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Thursday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Thursday for COZ090>092. Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 5 PM MST Thursday for COZ252>254. NE...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Thursday for NEZ079>081. Red Flag Warning from 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Thursday for NEZ079>081.