textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Could see some sprinkles and light showers this afternoon and overnight. Better potential for rain starts tomorrow afternoon lasting into Thursday morning.

- A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of the area on Thursday. Potential for fire weather concerns to continue through Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This afternoon, the 500 mb vorticity persists and some easterly flow at 850 mb is bringing in some additional moisture. This could be enough for some light precipitation later this afternoon, generally along and north of I-70. If precipitation occurs, it will start off as rain, but as the night progresses, some isolated flurries may mix in. Overnight temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing, but in the 30s.

Wednesday, things get more interesting. Temperatures look to top out in the upper 50s and 60s, coolest in the northeastern CWA, as a 500 mb trough pushes in from the west. This will give us increasing forcing throughout the day as an 850 mb low from southern Colorado pulls in more moisture from the east. PoPs increase throughout the day, peaking around 21-06Z Wednesday evening. The entire CWA has a greater than 60% chance at seeing some precipitation. As it stands, there's a 50% chance most of the CWA receives 0.1 inch of QPF by Thursday morning.

There is potential for some thunderstorms to mix into the ongoing precipitation after 21Z, but severe weather is unlikely. The biggest hazard would be winds coming out of the storms. Most likely gusts would be in the 35-45 kts range, with peak potential of 55 kts. There is also a 15% chance snow starts mixing in along and north of U.S. 34 early Thursday morning, on the back end of the precipitation. We're also watching the potential for black ice forming Thursday morning as temperatures once again fall to around freezing.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 241 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Thursday morning lingering showers are expected as Wedensday's system moves through to the northeast with the greatest chances in the northeast portions of the County Warning Area (CWA). There is a chance for light accumulation for the northeast portion of the CWA. Guidance has been shown a downward trend in the probability of seeing precipitation in the morning to midday hours. Once the system moves out around midday, high temperatures look to be in the low to mid 70s along with overnight lows in the lower 30s, along with dry conditions.

For the fire weather potential, looking at guidance for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne County there is a 50-60% chance of seeing 25 mph gusts beginning around noon then in the afternoon is a 70-95% chance of seeing 25 mph wind gusts coming from the south. The timing for peak wind gusts are looking to be around 12pm-8pm with there being a 40-50% chance of exceeding 40 mph for mainly Kit Carson, County. As for minimum relative humidity they are values in the lower to mid teens. Based on current guidance there is a 50-60% that Red Flag Criteria will be met, prompting the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch.

Looking at Friday the next system looks to bring in cooler temperatures, but there is a threat for fire weather in the afternoon. There is an upper level shortwave trough that has an associated surface low that looks to move through Thursday night into Friday early morning. There is a cold front with this system that will bring cooler temperatures. The low temperatures look to stay in the mid to upper 30s with lower 40s for the eastern portions in the CWA. As for the highs the temperatures they look to only warm into the low to mid 50s. As for precipitation there is still a very small chance of seeing anything would be Friday evening to Saturday morning. There are 10-20 PoPs over the Colorado Counties and the northern part of the CWA.

Fire Weather is possible again for the afternoon. The greatest threat for seeing the higher winds are for Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne Counties, CO. The direction of the winds will be from the north. There is a 75-90% of seeing at least 25 mph gusts beginning around 9 am (MDT). The highest gusts have a 50% chance of exceeding 40 mph in western Yuma County, CO. Widespread RH values are looking to be near 20% with the southwest portion of the CWA Seeing values in the upper teens. Guidance has also shown an increase in GFDI values reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s with the greatest peak occurring from 12 pm (MDT) to 4 pm (MDT) which is also when we see the peak winds and the lowest RH values.

Looking at the rest of the period there is quite a bit of similarity for Sunday through Tuesday. For the upper pattern we stay zonal with very little change over the three days. Temperatures look to remain in the 70s with for the majority of the CWA. As for the lows they look to stay in the upper 20s for Sunday then shifting to the mid 30s. Winds look to be coming from the south for Sunday and Monday. As for wind gusts there is some uncertainty on how strong they will be. Looking at both Sunday and Monday the spread between the 90th and 10th percentiles the spread is around 20-25 mph difference. The 90th percentile does show there being winds in the 20-40 mph range for both days. As for the RH values in the lower teens are forecasted which does show a concern for fire weather criteria being met.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 534 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through 11Z as winds become more southeasterly overnight, gradually advecint more humid air into the region overnight. Expect to see a MVFR stratus deck approach MCK by 13Z with cigs in the 1500-2000 feet range. Forcing for ascent will increase in the 15-20Z time period and will likely result in scattered showers developing. Right now, confidence too low to bring in rain as prevailing group at this time.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ027-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ252>254. NE...None.