textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures possible late week into the early weekend. Daily record highs and even monthly record highs may be possible.

- Fire Weather Watch issued for those mainly north of I-70 on Saturday. Very dry conditions and wind gusts up to 40 mph possible.

- Front moves through late Saturday, bringing much cooler temperatures and a chance for blowing dust.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1241 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The short-term is dominated by an approaching high pressure system over the southwestern CONUS. This will put us under northwesterly flow, which could allow for some weak shortwaves that cause light forcing. However, down in the lower levels, dry conditions will prevail and precipitation is not expected from the lack of moisture. This will also allow temperatures to climb over the next several days as skies remain fairly clear.

Temperatures today have been bumped up a few degrees, mainly due to westerly flow and 850 mb temperatures warming into the 20-25C range. As it stands, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s, with the warmest temperatures in the southeastern CWA. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to be fairly similar as today's. Due to the more northerly flow and 850 mb temperatures still being in the 20-25 C range, as well as slightly stronger wind mixing the PBL, the warming trend is expected to be stunted. However, there is a 35% chance locations in the southeastern CWA reach into the low 90s. Record high temperatures are in jeopardy, more information can be found in the climate section below. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to remain in the 40s.

As far fire weather concerns go, they are pretty low. Winds during the afternoon are forecast to remain under 20 kts as RH values drop to around 10-15%. Confidence for pockets of brief critical fire weather conditions is about 40-50%, highest south of U.S. 36. However, confidence in Red Flag Warning criteria being met is only around 5%.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 302 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Saturday remains forecast to be one of the hottest days so far with high temperatures forecast to reach the 90s. Some 100s for eastern portions of the area is not out of the question. Most locations are forecast to set new record temperatures. The good news for people that don't like heat is that the upper ridge driving this is forecast to collapse during the day as an upper trough begins to push into the Northern Plains. With the hot temperatures, relative humidity is forecast to drop into the single digits and teens. This does lead to some critical fire weather concerns, though the limiting factor remains the wind. Right now, the forecast timing of the system pushing a low/front near through the area is during the evening and overnight hours Saturday. With this and the ridge axis shifting over the area, the pressure and height gradients are forecast to remain weak and keep winds generally below 20 mph. The thing that could change that is that there is chance that the trough could dig south a little faster as suggested by the GEFS and European ensembles. In this case, the pressure and height gradients would be a bit tighter and allow for wind gusts around 30-35 mph while we have the very low humidity. Due to this, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Saturday.

The Fire Weather Watch does continue overnight as the front passing could allow for a period where winds are stronger in the wake of the front (20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph) while RH is still around or below 15% and not fully recovered. Currently the chance for winds to reach High Wind Warning criteria is less than 10%, so the main concern is for lingering critical fire weather conditions. Blowing dust may also become a concern if the winds are on the stronger side of the forecast, especially with the front passing through very dry conditions.

Sunday and Monday are forecast to be on the cooler side in the wake of the cold front. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s with lows Monday below freezing. The lower temperatures are forecast to keep relative humidity generally in the 20s or higher, which should help keep the chances for critical fire weather conditions low. That being said, there may still be some increased fire danger with winds forecast to be around 10-20 mph and gusts in the 25-40 mph range both days behind the system.

Tuesday-Thursday are forecast to see temperatures warm as another upper ridge slides into the Southwestern United States. However, like this weekend, another trough is forecast to follow up and flatten the ridge. This should bring another system through the area. The issue is when as guidance has been jumping around a bit and ensembles show a 24 hour spread mainly around Wednesday. Should the system push through late Wednesday or Thursday, we could see hot temperatures again with highs in the 90s. Otherwise, the current main concern is that critical fire weather may develop any of these days depending on the winds as dry conditions are forecast to remain in place.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1042 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. KGLD winds will favor a northwesterly direction until around 1Z, then favoring southwesterly. KMCK is forecast to be variable between about 240-350 degrees until the afternoon, then favor west- southwesterly, before coming variable again in the evening.

Did notice at 0438Z, KMCK reported 8 SM visibility. There is no meteorological reason for this reduction and is likely from a spiderweb or bug.

CLIMATE

Issued at 100 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2026

Some daily record highs and even monthly March record highs are in jeopardy of falling this Friday and Saturday

Record high temperatures Thursday March 19th

Goodland: Record high 90 in 1907.... current forecast 84.

McCook: Record high 91 in 2017.... current forecast 86.

Hill City: Record high 90 in 2017... current forecast 87.

Burlington: Record high 86 in 2017.... current forecast 84. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Record high temperatures Friday March 20th

Goodland: Record high 90 in 1907.... current forecast 85.

McCook: Record high 85 in 1916 and 1997.... current forecast 87.

Hill City: Record high 88 in 1916... current forecast 89.

Burlington: Record high 87 in 1907.... current forecast 84. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Record high temperatures Saturday March 21st

Goodland: Record high 84 in 1907 & 2011.... current forecast 94.

McCook: Record high 89 in 1910.... current forecast 97.

Hill City: Record high 93 in 1907... current forecast 96.

Burlington: Record high 84 in 2011.... current forecast 93. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Monthly (March) Record Highs:

Goodland: 90 degrees March 20th, 1907

McCook: 93 degrees March 16th, 2015

Burlington: 93 degrees March 19th, 1921

Hill City: 94 degrees March 16th, 2015

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for KSZ001>004-014>016. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for COZ252. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for NEZ079>081.