textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for counties along the Tri- State border this afternoon. An hour or two of critical conditions could sneak into northern portions of Kit Carson and Sherman counties as well.

- Above average highs expected into early next week. Near record highs possible.

- A series of weak shortwaves move through the region next week and may bring precipitation. Low confidence on timing and accumulations at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1221 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

A front is currently moving across the area shifting winds from the southwest to the northwest. Winds on either side of the front a breezy around 20-25 mph sustained and some gusts to 30 mph currently. The Red Flag Warning area continues to look on track. Across Yuma county the 850mb jet is forecast to locally increase where some gusts around 40 mph are possible through the mid afternoon hours. The peak of the wind is forecast to be from roughly 11am-3pm MT before waning but remaining around 10-15 mph overnight. Overall very little tweaks have been made to the forecast as the entire area is still forecast to warm into the low 60s to low 70s with the warmest temperatures across the west. WNW winds are forecast to continue through the night around 10-15 mph. As long as winds can remain at that speed temperatures are forecast to remain around freezing. Some guidance does suggest that winds may wane a little lower than forecast as the pressure gradient weakens. 16Z RAP and HRRR both suggest that 1-2 mb pressure rises over one hour and 2- 3mb pressure rises over 3 hours which looks to continue through the night which suggests to me that enough mixing should continue to keep winds around what they are currently forecast.

Northwest flow is forecast to continue Sunday as well whereas at the surface a more messier low level flow depicted by guidance for the morning hours. Guidance is starting to hint at a 700mb shortwave which may help locally increase the surface wind field by increasing mixing potential for the afternoon hours along a corridor from Yuma through Gove county. The GFS is currently the most aggressive and quickest with the wind field increase whereas the NAM is around 3-6 hours slower and has moving through later in the afternoon. If the GFS were to verify then the potential for fire weather would increase as humidity is currently forecast in the mid teens to low 20s. Overall confidence in that scenario at this time is around 20% and confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed if that scenario pans out is less than 10% due to concerns of how long conditions would last and if humidity could fall a little more. Confidence in the current forecast with wind gusts up to 20 mph is around 80% as the GFS is the only guidance showing the stronger wind potential at this time. High temperatures for the day are forecast to be warm again in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Monday, confidence is high in warm temperatures across the area with highs currently forecast in the low to mid 70s. A passing surface trough early Monday morning is forecast to allow most of the forecast area to remain in southwest "furnace wind" flow for the day. If mixing can be a little stronger would not be surprised if some isolated low 80s could be achieved especially the further east you go where 850mb temperatures are forecast to be a little higher. Near record high temperatures are possible as well for a few sites across the area. The exception for the northwest flow currently appears to be across northwest portions of the forecast area where winds are forecast to be a bit more northwesterly just ahead of an incoming cold front. As for fire weather concerns at this time not concerned as the majority of the area is forecast to be in the axis of the surface trough leading to winds around 10 mph. If the trough were to slow down then fire weather concerns could increase for southern and eastern portions of the area which the GEFS Mean Spread does suggest that it could be a possibility but overall confidence is less than 10% in that occurring at this time. With the cold front mentioned earlier, this front is currently forecast to move through during the evening hours. Gusty winds up to 45 mph are possible with it as mixing heights are around 1000 feet and the 850mb jet increases to around 30-40 knots. Not seeing any signals at this time for precipitation along it unfortunately.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 150 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Tuesday starts off our cooling trend in the wake of a cold frontal passage from the north. Our region is in a predominantly zonal upper level pattern while a low develops off the west coast. The zonal flow will set us up for fairly consistent temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs are forecast in the 50s/low 60s and lows in the 20s.

The low off the west coast begins to dig southwesterly developing into a positively tilted trough throughout the day Wednesday and begins to propogate towards our region. This will send a series of shortwaves through the region bringing slight chance for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 10-15% overnight Wednesday into Thursday afternoon.

Thursday, the trough continues to dig and propogate towards our region. PoPs increase overnight Thursday into Friday to approximately 20-40% for our region and drop to less than 15% by Saturday afternoon.

With high temperatures for Friday and Saturday forecast in the low 50s, rain is the expected precipitation type for this system. It could transition to a more wintry mix as the sun sets due to low temperatures forecast in the 20s. Low confidence on timing, amounts and type of precipitation on this system. There is significant disagreement between models including the GEFS Mean Spread for the jet position at 250 and 500 mb along with the ECMWF Ensembles for the overall position of the low.

It is worth mention that there is a slight uptick in MUCAPE on the 12Z GFS Friday evening through Saturday for the eastern portion of the county warning area (CWA). This, combined with warm air advection from the south and increased dewpoints for our region, gives a low chance for thunder. Low confidence on this due to the overall disorganized nature of this system Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 949 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

A front is moving across the GLD terminal currently which is forecast to shift winds to the northwest around 19-1930Z, this is when winds are forecast to increase with gusts around 25 knots. As for MCK, southwest winds currently are forecast to gradually shift to the northwest as well as the front moves across them. Sustained winds of 12-15 knots are ongoing but are forecast to weaken to around 08-10 knots. Some sporadic gusts to 25 knots are possible between 21 and 23Z based on the current speed of the front before the nocturnal inversion sets in so opted for a tempo to account for this. There is a 30% chance that front moves through an hour or two quicker which would lead to more consistent gusts for MCK to around 25 knots, if this is the case an AMD would be needed to remove the tempo and go more of a FM group. Some marginal LLWS is possible for MCK as well through the night but confidence is not quite high enough to introduce into the TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 401 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing across northwest portions of the area. Overall no change in expectations for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds are still forecast to decrease around 430-5pm MT but remain around 10-15 mph overnight.

Sunday and Monday, humidity will be low in the low to upper teens but the overall wind fields are not impressive at all. Sustained winds are forecast to be around 10 mph. Due to diurnal mixing we could see some gusts up to 20 mph across most of the forecast area but should be sporadic and isolated in nature. Due to this the concern for elevated conditions has declined.

There is a scenario each day (Sunday and Monday) where fire weather conditions could increase. Guidance is starting to suggest that there could a weak wave moving through the area which could locally enhance the 850mb wind field which could lead to a couple hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions along a corridor from roughly Yuma county to Gove county. The GFS is the most aggressive and quickest with this as winds could increase as early as 12pm MT and last through the afternoon along with wind gusts around 30 mph. Confidence in this is currently around 30% in localized critical and less than 10% that a Red Flag Warning would be needed. Current forecast only wind gusts around 20 mph but upcoming shifts will need to monitor to see if other guidance starts trending that way.

Monday, is forecast to be the warmest and driest day of the week with current forecast highs in the 70s and RH in the low teens. Light southwest winds are forecast as the area is in the axis of a surface trough. If the trough were to slow down then southern and eastern portions of the forecast area may see some fire weather concerns but confidence in that is less than 10% at this time. Do be aware of a cold front moving through Monday night though that could bring gusty winds with it.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ001. CO...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252. NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ079.