textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few snow showers may accompany the frontal passage early Saturday morning. There is also a very low chance that some light icing may occur before the front arrives, favoring counties along the Nebraska border.

- Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic cold frontal passage early Sat morning, strongest (30-40 G 55 mph) between sunrise and noon Sat.

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 135 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

For today, a seasonable day is forecast as northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal ahead of an upper trough moving through the Northern Rockies. Within this flow, mid and high level moisture is forecast to continue streaming over the area and allow for mostly cloud skies. Closer to the surface, a low is forecast to take shape and deepen along the Front Range. This should strengthen the winds a bit in the area and bring in some lower level moisture this morning. The current forecast doesn't have fog forming with this, but it may add some low level clouds to the already mostly cloudy skies. As the day progresses, the surface low should begin to shift east into the area. This should push the lower level moisture and stronger winds east. For locales along the Colorado border, temperatures should near the low to mid 50s with winds weakening late in the day. For the rest of the area, cooler temperatures around 50 are forecast with even cooler temperatures possible if the low level cloud cover does form. Winds should be around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Tonight, the upper trough axis is forecast to swing through the area while pushing the surface low just south and east of the area. It is a bit of a battle between how fast the low gets south (putting the area on the wrap around side of the low) and how fast it goes east (moving the dry slot into the area). The slower the low, the more moisture that will wrap in and allows for rain, fog, and snow. The faster the low, the more the dry slot moves in and ends precipitation chances. The forecast is currently similar to ensemble means, with a little bit of rain and fog ahead of a cold front that then briefly becomes snow. The overall accumulations would be low for each, below a tenth of liquid and below an inch of snow. That being said, the alternate scenario favored is a slower progression. While not impactful or that different, it would increase the max liquid to around 0.15" and the snow to two inches. The main concern for impacts is the possibility of dense fog and maybe some light icing. The fog potential is higher if the center of the low moves through the area before dipping south. With that, we would then have better moisture advection and a moisture convergence point moving through. As for the icing, there could be a small window along and north of a line from Benkelman, NE to Hill City, KS if not enough moisture advects in. Surface dewpoints would then be closer to freezing and temperatures may be able to hit freezing from weak cold air advection before the front barrels through. With this, freezing rain or sleet may briefly occur. While the ground is likely too warm for widespread impacts, it could lead to problems with elevated surfaces. Even if icing does occur, accumulations likely wouldn't exceed a hundredth or two with the limited time window and aforementioned warm ground.

Saturday is forecast to be somewhat similar to last Tuesday. An early cold front passage is forecast to allow winds to increase during the morning hours with pressure rises of 6-8mb in the 3 hours. This would allow speeds to climb between 25 and 35 mph. Meanwhile, winds just above the surface are forecast to be in the 40- 50 kts range as the trough axis slides east of the area and puts us under a stronger height gradient. The saving grace is that the forecast calls for the upper trough to broaden, lowering the chance for winds to exceed 50 kts in this layer. Even if the winds are stronger in this layer, the early frontal passage and cold air advection should limit how much the winds can be mixed down. So, similar to Tuesday, expect wind gusts generally around 40-55 mph with a few gusts to 60 mph. The strongest winds are again forecast to occur during the morning hours. Any precipitation and fog should end during the morning as drier air moves in behind the cold front. Temperatures are forecast to stay in the 20s and low 30s with the strong cold air advection behind the front.

Saturday night, the area is forecast to be back under northwest flow aloft. While the lower and mid level moisture should have been pulled off to the east, high level cloud cover is forecast to move over with moisture moving through the upper flow. However, that may not be enough to keep the are from seeing lows in the single digits and low teens from the colder/drier air mass that moved in at the surface. At least winds should be lower around 10 mph or less as the system moving away and the inversion sets up. Still the wind may be just enough for some negative single digit wind chills.

Sunday, we are forecast to have a similar upper pattern to Friday as another upper trough moves through the Northern Rockies. The main difference with this trough is that it is forecast to be a bit further west, with ensembles suggesting it could shift even further west. The more west it shifts, the lesser the impact to the area. Irregardless of which solution pans out, more mid and high cloud cover is forecast to move over the area. Combined with broad troughing across the Unites States, Sunday is forecast to cold with temperatures in the 20s. Winds are forecast to be around 10 mph or less for locales along and east of Highway 25, while the western half of the area closer to the low sees winds around 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Sunday night, deterministic guidance is fairly unified on the trough axis swinging through the area and into the Plains. However, ensemble guidance suggests that the main trough axis may stay closer to the West Coast. With this discrepancy, the forecast currently follows the deterministic guidance and brings a chance for snow through the night as the axis swings through the area. Unlike Saturday's event, the surface low is likely too far to help provide extra lift so most of the lift will be due to the trough axis. With the cold temperatures SLRs are forecast to be higher around 15-20, which could help the area see more widespread one to three inches. This is in spite of lesser overall moisture content in the air column. If the trough does stay west, then the area may see no snow at all or flurries with little forcing to work with.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 145 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Upper trough axis will be moving through Monday morning to start the period, with additional light snow accumulations of less than 1 inch expected. Should be clearing out Monday afternoon as the trough moves east with high temperatures in the 30s. Lows Monday night will be in the teens with a light west wind mitigating radiational cooling potential. Will be between systems on Tuesday with temperatures recovering to the 40s for highs. Another progressive open wave moves through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Ensembles show light snow confined mostly to Colorado, less than 1 inch, though can't completely discount a stray flake further east as the upper trough axis swings through Wednesday morning. Temperatures cool slightly behind that system with highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows Wednesday night around 20. May see yet another shortwave trough on Thursday, but snow potential looks even less likely than previous system. Temperatures remain coolish with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1016 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast, but there are multiple time periods where IFR conditions may also come into play. Through the first six hours, VFR conditions are likely with ceilings generally above 7000ft and winds roughly from the southeast around 10 kts. Between 12-18Z, some guidance hints at the development of a low cloud deck with ceilings around 500-700ft to the west of the terminals. It isn't clear if this will form and/or move over the terminals, but keep an eye out for updates. If these ceilings move over, KGLD will likely have low ceilings through 21Z while KMCK may have ceilings remain low through the remainder of the TAF period. Regardless of whether or not the first batch of lower ceilings forms, low ceilings and fog are possible after 00Z, especially for KMCK. If the fog and low ceilings form, the forecast is for ceilings around 200-500ft with 1/4 to 2 SM visibility in fog. This will be dependent on how far a surface low moves east and if the area stays in the wrap around side. In short, keep an eye on conditions while flying today as conditions could get rough fairly quickly.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.