textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Briefly critical fire weather conditions expected south of Highway 40 this afternoon.

- There is a low chance (< 15%) for a short period of freezing fog or freezing drizzle near the KS-NE border around sunrise Tuesday morning.

- The area is forecast to have precipitation chances through most of the week, with higher chances towards the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 256 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Synoptic Overview: A modest W to NW flow aloft regime will prevail over the region through mid-week, with the Tri-State Area situated between two distinct (northern/southern stream) branches of the upper level jet.

Today: Challenging temperature and wind forecast assoc/w a sizable thermal gradient on the eastern and northern periphery of a modest, near-stationary lee cyclone over east-central and southeast Colorado. Expect highs ranging from the upper 70's at the northern fringe of the warm sector (850 mb temps 16 to 18C) in Greeley/Wichita counties to the upper 50's and lower 60's in southwest Nebraska, where 20-30 knot easterly low-level flow will reinforce/maintain a much cooler airmass (850 mb temps 4 to 7C). Critical fire weather conditions are likely in Greeley/Wichita counties this afternoon, where RH readings will briefly bottom-out ~10% and breezy (20-30 mph) SW winds will gust up to 40 mph.

Tonight: Breezy E winds will envelope much of the Goodland CWA this evening as the lee cyclone meanders southward into far southeastern CO. Broken upper level cloud cover /cirrus/ in westerly flow aloft will likely be accompanied by low ceilings /stratus/ over northern portions of the area, mainly southwest Nebraska and adjacent KS border counties where a tight thermal gradient will exist and low-level warm advection/frontogenesis will be maximized. Forecast soundings and simulated reflectivity forecasts via the GFS, HRRR and RAP are not indicative of precipitation. If light precip were to develop in far northern portions of the area (north of Hwy 36), where the ice nucleation zone is unlikely to be saturated and surface wetbulb temperatures as low as 30-31F are possible shortly before sunrise (~09-12Z Tue), then.. a brief period of light freezing drizzle/rain could not be ruled out. Expect lows ranging from 30-40F, warmest south.

Tue-Tue night: An upper level disturbance over southern California at 20Z this afternoon will remain far-removed from the Tri-State Area as it tracks E-ESE across the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies (tonight), central TX (Tue) and the Lower MS River Valley (Tue night). With an increasingly homogenous airmass / decreasing baroclinicity and absent upper forcing, the modest lee cyclone in vicinity of the CO-KS will weaken into a broad surface trough over eastern CO and far western KS. Expect highs ranging from ~70F (north) to ~80F (south).. with breezy (~20-30 mph) S to SSW winds confined east and south of Goodland.. and overnight (Wed morning) lows in the mid-upper 40's.

Wed-Wed night: An upper level low centered along the coast of northern British Columbia at 20Z this afternoon will track southeast toward the northern Rockies Tue eve-night then eastward along the US/Canada border on Wed. A modest cold front assoc/w this system will slow in forward progress as it progresses southward into the Tri-State Area during the afternoon. With focused upper forcing passing well north of Tri- State Area.. and guidance indicating very weak (~5-10 knot) low- level flow (thus, weak convergence) in vicinity of the boundary during the afternoon, confidence is low that convection will develop during the mid-late afternoon. Low-level warm advection assoc/w a strengthening southerly LLJ in central KS could potentially aid in the development of nocturnal convection on the cool side of the SW-NE or W-E oriented stalled front during the evening. At this time, marginal severe weather potential is unclear.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Thursday, our region is forecast in a mostly zonal upper-level flow with a deepening low off the coast of Baja California. Highs are forecast in the 70s to 80s. We start to see chances for precipitation begin Thursday morning as embedded shortwaves pass through the area. As the day progresses, there is potential for thunderstorms, favoring the eastern CWA. There are around 1000 J/kg of CAPE forecast as well as moisture advection from the south. Precipitation chances continue overnight with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 50-60% overnight for the entire CWA.

Conditions are cooler Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 60s. Precipitation chances continue throughout the day. There is a chance for thunderstorms again in the afternoon hours as weak instability is forecast to develop over the CWA. Around 200 J/kg of CAPE is forecast as well as weak moisture advection from the south.

The previously mentioned low off the west coast continues to deepen and propagate east Friday evening. Ensembles are currently in disagreement on the track and intensity of the low. Where this sets up will determine our precipitation chances, but based on increasing available moisture and convective forcing, we will likely see increasing coverage and intensity of precipitation and thunderstorms Saturday through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 456 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the overnight hours, however, increasing clouds are expected by sunrise with ceilings remaining above 5000 feet. Skies begin to scatter out by late afternoon with ceilings rising back into the 25 kft range. Winds will remain strong and gusty (gusts up to 25 to 30 knots) out of the east through the evening hours, but will diminish after Midnight. Easterly winds will eventually shift to the south southeast by Tuesday afternoon, but will generally remain below 12 knots.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.