textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average highs expected late this week through early next week.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions forecast Saturday through Monday. Winds are forecast to be the strongest on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 137 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Large scale ridging is centered across the Four Corners region and into the Pacific Northwest with 576-579 DM heights already extending into the Central High Plains where there is lingering northwest flow. Temperatures are in the middle to upper 60s with some locations near 70 and before peak daytime heating ends some locations could exceed 70. Northwest winds are periodically gusting around 25 mph where lingering 850MB winds in the 20-30kt range. These winds continue to show a downward trend aloft, so we should se a downward trend in peak gusts through the second half of the afternoon. RH values have held above 20% this afternoon as forecast, limiting impacts to fire weather.

The mean ridge axis progresses eastward over the tri-state region Friday into Saturday with more of a split flow pattern setting up late Saturday into Saturday night. There is a weak (dry) cold front on Friday that knocks temperatures down a bit from today, but there should remain mild (lower to middle 60s). As the ridge axis shifts east here is a window for SW flow aloft that noses up into the region Saturday with increasing WAA and temperatures Saturday may be similar to day (middle to upper 60s common). On SAturday afternoon, RH values are forecast to generally range from 16% (eastern CO) to the 20% range west of Highway 25 in KS/NE.

A nocturnal LLJ will be transitioning east of the region through midday Saturday with weakening winds in the mixed layer through the early afternoon for most locations. However, there is a secondary 850MB jet (20-30kt) that is shown to develop with a weak shortwave in the northern stream of the developing split flow pattern later in the afternoon from the Cheyenne Ridge towards northeast CO. Depending on the timing of this feature in relation to peak mixing there could be gusts 25 mph+ over parts of Yuma and Kit Carson counties coinciding with where the lower RH values are forecast. There still isn't a strong signal for widespread RH values 15% or lower in those areas, and the winds are conditional on the timing of that LLJ lowering confidence in critical fire weather conditions matching RFW impacts at this time. However, Saturday afternoon will continue to be a period to monitor for brief/localized critical fire weather conditions.|

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Split flow is forecast to be in place across the forecast area to start the extended period. Mild temperatures are forecast to continue as well with 850mb temperatures remaining around 12-14C across the area. With the mild temperatures humidity values are forecast to fall again into the mid to upper teens both Sunday and Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are not overly concerning for fire weather concerns due to weak or weakening 850mb jets and 700mb winds should mixing be deep enough should mixing be sufficient enough. With humidity levels so low it will be worth keeping an eye on trends with these jets however.

Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to move through putting an end to the mild temperatures as 850mb temperatures are forecast to fall to around 0-2C around 18Z Tuesday. GFS suggests there could be some light drizzle or light rain with and behind the front as it is suggesting a large area of -3 microbars of omega around the 850mb level. Deterministic 00Z ECWMF is around 24 hours slower with the frontal passage however. GEFS average spread is actually a little quicker than the 12Z deterministic GFS which is typically what does occur as cold fronts do move through a little quicker in reality in the Goodland Forecast area. If the quicker frontal passage does occur then high temperatures for the day could be around 5-10 degrees cooler than currently forecast. Light precipitation may occur as well. There still remain quite a bit of spread to the timing, location and type of precipitation as guidance does spread on how a pattern change to more troughing occurs. If snow were to occur it appears that the favored time period for it would be later in in the work week when temperatures are forecast to fall back into the 40s for highs. There is some signal split flow could return which would decrease our precipitation chances and increase our high temperatures with mild conditions returning. Currently, that solution seems less likely to occur. At this time not concerned for impactful snowfall but the 12Z LREF does indicate that if troughing can become more pronounced then accumulating snow would become more likely later in the week. Currently confidence in that is less than 5%. Overall though for the extended period, nothing that is significantly suggesting that impactful weather will occur but there are a few scenarios that it could change through the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1008 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. There will be LLWS at KMCK late tonight through early Friday morning. Otherwise, expect light surface winds and occasional high clouds at both terminals.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.