textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry and breezy through the beginning of the work week, with severe weather largely confined to the Northern Plains.

- Southernmost extent of thunderstorm development (and severe weather potential) may include portions of far northeast Colorado on Tuesday, mainly Yuma County.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 220 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Overview: Southwest flow aloft will persist over the Tri-State Area, between an amplifying ridge over the MS River Valley and a broad upper level low over the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.

Today-Monday: Persistence forecast. Guidance indicates little change in the synoptic pattern in place over the region during the next 36 hours. Daily/diurnal lee cyclone development in CO will continue to foster breezy SSW to SW low-level flow during the afternoon hours each day. Guidance also indicates that convection will be confined to the Northern Plains (mainly Dakotas), in closer proximity to shortwave energy progressing cyclonically around a broad upper level low over the northern Rockies. With steering flow from the SW, convective development and convective phenomena (outflow, MCV's, remnant cloud cover, etc.) over the Northern Plains are exceedingly unlikely to affect the mesoscale pattern several hundred miles further to the south, in the Tri-State Area. With the above in mind, expect sensible weather conditions similar to Saturday, i.e. hot, dry and breezy. At present, fuels are not conducive for critical fire weather conditions. -Vincent

Tuesday presents a similar scenario. RRFS suggests the dry line will retreat as far west as the Colorado and Kansas border area by the afternoon with the NBM also showing southeast winds and higher dew points. RRFS shows more of pronounced shortwave in the southwest flow aloft and initiates convection in the area after 21z. The environment would be supportive of a severe threat with up to 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 40 kts of deep layer shear, strongest in the northwest half of the area. Still a few days out and unsure how the other CAMs will handle it, but there is at least some hints of a severe risk on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures continue in the 90s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 159 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Hot, dry, and windy weather persist through the long term forecast period. Wednesday, our region is forecast to be in a southwest upper- level flow with a jet streak overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s for the county warning area (CWA). Expect a windy Wednesday for our Colorado counties with wind gusts up to 40 mph possible. A shortwave passage will bring a slight chance of precipitation Wednesday afternoon, but Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are only around 15% for the northeast CWA. Instability is weak, so any storms that form will likely be isolated and sub-severe with small hail and strong winds as the primary hazards.

Thursday through Saturday, conditions continue to be hot, dry, and windy with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s. Wind gusts of 20 to 45 mph are expected, with the strongest winds forecast across the western CWA.

While the meteorological conditions are conducive for fire weather, how receptive fuels will be is the big question. Wednesday through Saturday, relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to fall into the teens across the western CWA accompanied by strong afternoon winds. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are forecast in the high to extreme category. However, given the recent substantial rainfall, fuels may remain unreceptive, which could mitigate the overall fire weather threat despite the hot, dry, and windy conditions. We will have to watch how much fuels dry out over the weekend to better determine fire weather potential for next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

GLD: Clear skies and VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. KGLD velocity data at 05Z this evening indicates a ~55 knot SSW low-level jet at ~800 ft AGL. Expect LLWS for several hours, until 08-10Z, when guidance indicates that low-level flow will veer to the W and decrease in magnitude. 10-15 knot S to SSW surface winds will shift to the W ~08Z and persist through mid to late morning. Winds will back to the SW and increase to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots by early afternoon (~18Z). SW winds will further increase to 20-25 knots with gusts to 30-35 knots during the mid-late afternoon (~22Z) and persist until sunset (~02Z Mon), at which point winds will back to the S and decrease to 10-15 knots. A strengthening SSW to SW nocturnal low-level jet will produce LLWS during the late evening, near the end of the 06Z TAF period.

MCK: Clear skies and VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Expect 45-50 knot SSW to SW low-level wind shear for several hours, until 09-11Z, when guidance indicates that low- level flow will veer to the W and decrease in magnitude. 8-13 knot SE to SSE surface winds will shift to the SW or WSW ~09Z and persist through the remainder of the morning. Winds will back to the SSW and increase to 12-17 knots with gusts up to 25 knots during the mid-afternoon and persist until sunset (~02Z Mon), at which point winds will back to the SE and decrease to 8-13 knots. A strengthening SSW to SW nocturnal low-level jet will produce LLWS during the late evening, near the end of the 06Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.