textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional chances for severe weather Friday through Monday. Saturday afternoon looks to be the peak for severe weather with all hazards possible

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1101 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Early this morning, a fairly zonal 500 mb flow sets up, as an 850 mb low stalls out near the TX/OK Panhandles. This is helping set up a 310K isothermic boundary across the CWA early this morning. This boundary runs pretty parallel to U.S. 24 and is causing these late night storms. These storms are expected to remain sub-severe, but small hail and winds up to 50 MPH are possible. These storms should end by 9Z.

Today, the low looks to diffuse a bit, and work to keep winds pretty mild. This will allow temperatures to warm to around 90 in the northwestern CWA and close to 100 in the eastern CWA. This will drive RH values into the low to mid teens across the CWA, but once again, winds will be weak, minimizing and fire weather concerns.

The convection threat for Friday is being a bit squirrelly still. A weak 500 mb shortwave trough looks to enter the CWA around 21Z, allowing some scattered showers and storms to form across the area. The afternoon showers and storms look to remain sub-severe, potentially just virga and dry lightning, which is the biggest fire weather threat for Friday. The severe convective threat is still looking more like an overnight threat.

Around 3-9Z, the 500 mb vorticity from the shortwave peaks as the 310K boundary tightens up again thanks to warm, moist air advection from the southeast. The boundary will be the area that is most likely to see storms fire, which looks to set up along a line around McCook, NE to Cheyenne Wells, CO. Specific location of the boundary is still in flux, so be prepared for this initiation zone to change. The main threat will be hail with these storms, potentially around 2 inches based on analog data.

The threat window for these storms starts around 3Z and lasts until around 12Z, but once storms start they only look to remain in the CWA for about 4-6 hours. There is considerable uncertainty if these storms will even form. As it stands there is only a 20-30% chance these overnight storms form. If they do form, they could diminish the severe weather potential later Saturday afternoon.

Saturday is becoming a main focus for severe weather. Temperatures ahead of any convection are forecast to warm into the mid 80s in eastern Colorado and low to mid 90s in the eastern CWA. With the additional moisture advection, RH values are forecast to remain in the 20s, minimizing any critical fire weather conditions as winds from the south east gust in the 20-30 kts range.

The main convection looks to fire in eastern Colorado from a 500 mb shortwave trough, which is presenting more as a vorticity axis. Storms look to move into our area around 21Z and move to the northeast. Around this same time, some CAMs are picking up on some dryline initiation in the central CWA. These storms look to peak around 22-4Z in the CWA, before exiting by 6Z. All hazards are possible with these storms, including hail greater than 2 inches, winds of 70 MPH, and a couple of tornadoes. The strong winds may also cause blowing dust, leading to localized brownout conditions.

There are some signs of another wave of storms behind the first wave, primarily impacting the northwestern CWA 2-8Z, if they do form. Hazards from these storms would be similar, but less intense than the first wave. This means hail up to around 2 inches, winds in the 60 MPH range, and potentially a brief tornado.

As mentioned above, there is potential that storms Friday night into Saturday morning modify the environment and cause the Saturday storms to be weaker than currently forecast.

Once the storms exit, temperatures look to cool into the upper 40s in the northwestern CWA and low 60s in the eastern CWA, where storms don't cool the environment.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Sunday, our region is in a southwest upper-level flow ahead of a digging trough west of the Rocky Mountains. There is also a surface low and dryline forecast in southwestern Kansas. This will set our county warning area (CWA) up for a multi-hazard day with chances for severe weather primarily north of I-70 and fire weather conditions south of I-70. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has most of our area outlooked for a Day 4 15% chance of severe weather. Severe weather is forecast to begin in the afternoon with supercells, large hail and strong winds as the main concerns based on strong southwest flow advecting in ample moisture, strong instability and embedded shortwaves passing through as the trough moves east. Blowing dust potential will also need to be monitored.

Moving on to fire weather concerns. South of the I-70 corridor, Relative Humidity (RH) values drop to the low teens in the afternoon along with winds gusts up to 40 mph possible. High temperatures are forecast in the mid 80s to upper 90s. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) south of I-70 are less than 10%. With the region outlooked for severe weather, there is concern for lightning ahead of storms as an ignition source. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are in the 30s to 80s, so if any fires start, they will likely grow and spread rapidly.

Severe weather chances continue for Monday as the eastern CWA is outlooked for a Day 5 15% chance of severe weather. Our region is forecast to be in a negatively tilted trough with a surface low on the eastern edge of our CWA. Similar concerns to Sunday of supercells with large hail and damaging winds, but there is uncertainty regarding exact timing and placement given how far out it is. PoPs are the highest for the northwest CWA ranging from 20-55%.

We could have a few hours of fire weather conditions Monday afternoon for the southern CWA. RH values are forecast in the high teens with GFDI values of 80-110+ for the most of the CWA. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph are possible. Blowing dust potential will need to be monitored due to the potential for high winds and dry conditions.

Tuesday is cooler in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s. Main highlight for Tuesday is a 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the western CWA. Wednesday and Thursday we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect pleasant temperatures with highs forecast in the 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 657 AM MDT Thu May 15 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period outside of a small chance for storms that may work into the GLD terminal very late in the period around the 05-09Z time frame. Current trends suggest that the main signal for storms may be southwest of the terminals for both GLD and MCK. Winds veer through the morning into the afternoon from WNW to the ENE with gusts developing to around 20kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.