textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Light wintry precipitation will end around sunrise. Main rain chances start this evening lasting through Saturday. Some thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening, no severe weather is expected.

- Early morning sub-freezing temperatures today and Sunday morning could lead to black ice.

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast Monday through Wednesday. Tuesday is the most concerning with high winds and blowing dust potential as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

This morning, as our ridge leaves the area ahead of our incoming trough, 500 mb vorticity and mid level moisture is causing some light showers to occur across the CWA. This precipitation is very scattered in nature and will lead to very little, if any accumulation due to a fairly dry PBL. The vast majority of the precipitation that falls this morning will be rain/snow mix, but there is a 10-15% chance some freezing rain could occur along and north of U.S. 36. The wintry mix and the potential for sub-freezing temperatures to freeze recently fallen rain could lead to patchy black ice this morning. The precipitation will become more scattered by sunrise and only rouge sprinkles or flurries would occur between 12-21Z.

Most of the cloud cover will stick around all day, stunting temperatures to around 60 degrees. For the main system this evening, the path is now taking a farther northern route. Most models now have the low moving over the TX/OK panhandles around 9Z. However, around 21-3Z, 250 mb jet stream right entrance region will be over southwestern Kansas. Additionally, there will be around 100-500 J/kg of MUCAPE over the southeastern CWA. This could to lead to some scattered thunderstorms before the main stratiform rain moves in. No severe weather is expected, but it's not every day in February that we get the chance at thunderstorms. The peak of the precipitation will be occur around 6-18Z Saturday. Precipitation will be exiting from northwest to southeast between 18-0Z Saturday afternoon.

Precipitation will be mainly focused along and southeast of a line from Norton, KS to Cheyenne Wells, CO. In this area, REFS is showing an 80%+ probability of greater than 0.25" QPF by Saturday evening, the HREF shows a 70-80%+ probability, while the NBM has a 50-60% chance of the same. Due to the fairly close spread of possibilities, forecaster confidence is sitting around 75%. Northwest of the line, QPF values rapidly drop off, ranging from 0.2" to trace with lowest amounts in the northwestern CWA. 75% percentiles of these three guidances range from 0.55-0.9" QPF.

The additional moisture will insulate the surface well, likely keeping lows and highs between the mid 30s to mid 50s Friday night through Saturday, respectively. The vast majority of the precipitation will be rain, but we could see some snow briefly mix in around sunrise. However, the biggest threat from this precipitation would be overnight freezing leading to black ice. As mentioned, Friday night looks to largely remain above freezing, but eastern Colorado and Dundy county could cool to below freezing. Saturday morning into Sunday morning, temperatures look to drop to around 30 for most of the area. This will be the time of the greatest risk of black icing, so be prepared for slick conditions.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 307 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Sunday, the warming trend continues for our region as we are forecast to be under a weak ridge with a trough developing off the west coast. High temperatures are forecast in the mid/high 60s with lows in the 30s. The afternoon will be windy for our Colorado counties with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the high teens/low 20s. Fire weather could be a concern Sunday if RH values drop further due to the higher temperatures and downsloping winds.

Conditions remain warm Monday with highs forecast in the upper 60s. Winds are not quite as severe, but gusts up to 30 mph are still possible for our Colorado counties. Periods of elevated critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon. RH values are forecast in the teens for the western portion of the county warning area (CWA) when our lowest RH values are forecast to occur in the afternoon.

Tuesday continues to be concerning for critical fire weather conditions. Model to model run, we are forecast to be in a strong southwesterly flow with a 250 mb jet maximum over our area. This will pummel our area with strong southwesterly/westerly winds causing dry conditions. Wind speeds have gone up with the latest run of the NBM. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible for the eastern portion of the CWA and gusts from 45-65+ mph are possible for the western portion. NBM probability is around 60% for wind gusts greater than 40 mph for our Colorado counties Tuesday afternoon. Grossly elevated Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values add to the critical fire weather concerns for Tuesday. Values are forecast from 60-125+ for the western portion of our CWA. Any fires that start will have rapid growth and spread out of control quickly. Widespread Red Flag Warnings may be needed for the area if conditions pan out.

Blowing dust may be a concern Tuesday, particularly for our Colorado counties. GFS low level lapse rates are between 8.5-10 C/km, which support dust being lofted, but mid level lapse rates are around 7 C/km. This will make any lofted dust likely to mix out. Between 18Z and 0Z overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, a cold front moves through the region, which would add to blowing dust potential.

Wednesday will continue to have fire weather concerns as we remain under a strong jet maximum. RH values and dewpoint are forecast in the teens. These are likely to lower even further in response to Tuesday's winds. Winds gusts are forecast up to 35 mph for the eastern half of the CWA and gusts from 40-50 mph are possible for the western portion. GFDI values range from 60-120 for the western portion of the CWA as well supporting rapid fire growth and spread.

There is a slight chance for precipitation overnight Wednesday into Thursday as the right entrance region of a jet maximum traverses through our region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 10-20% for the northern portion of the CWA. Conditions cool slightly with highs forecast in the 50s. Winds calm down slightly in comparison to earlier in the week with gusts up to 30 mph possible for our Colorado counties.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 358 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at KGLD and KMCK through most of the day. KGLD could see ceilings lowering and precipitation start as early as 0Z, and conditions will only get worse from there. IFR conditions look probable by sunrise tomorrow at KGLD. KMCK will be north of the most of the precipitation, but could still see MVFR conditions between 7-12Z. Precipitation looks to be a cold rain, so expect increased icing threat when precipitation begins.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.