textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered storms through the overnight with primary a heavy rain and flash flood threat, but a few severe storms possible with large hail and damaging winds.

- A cluster of storms is forecast to move into the area Saturday evening from Colorado with damaging winds the primary hazard.

UPDATE

Issued at 805 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Issued a Flash Flood Watch for southwest Nebraska through the overnight hours. This area received 2 to 5 inches of rain last night and soils are saturated. Thunderstorms have developed in northeast Colorado and are moving eastward. The low level jet will become active once again similar to the previous couple of nights and maintain the convection well into the overnight hours. Some southerly motion may develop with time, but that is uncertain. 21z RFS shows 2-4 inches possible in Nebraska, while the 00z HRRR has the heavy rainfall further south. However, given the antecedent rainfall think the threat of flooding is enhanced for southwest Nebraska should storms move over that area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1212 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

In the near term...thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage as they move out of Colorado the next few hours and continue through the overnight as the low level jet strengthens. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern, but may also see a few embedded stronger storms with a marginal wind and hail threat. Storms should be exiting the area to the east between 11-13z.

For the rest of today...upper ridge over west Texas and New Mexico well start to build into the southern Rockies, turning the flow over the central plains from zonal to slightly northwest. Another embedded wave will move through this afternoon and evening. CAMs show convection initiating along the Front Range and Cheyenne Ridge 21-22z and moving southeast, reaching the Colorado and Kansas border area 00-03z. However, with rapidly declining instability, and lack of a low level jet, storms are forecast to decay rather quickly. Remnant outflows appear to be the main severe threat through the early evening into northwest Kansas, ending by 06z at the latest, but probably closer to 03z. Given the lack of a low level jet, not expecting any overnight convection.

On Sunday...upper ridge continues to build northward into Colorado, with a northerly flow around it over the central plains. Given the lack of forcing in proximity to the ridge, convection appears unlikely.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 139 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Starting with the upper pattern, there is a ridge that begins to move in over the Dakotas and Canada. This ridge will begin to stall out and remain stationary for the majority of the period. Along with the ridge, there are two lows both sitting off of the northern west and northern east coast. With this pattern our flow for the CWA will mainly be weak zonal and will see some small embedded shortwave troughs throughout the week. These shortwaves will likely bring some higher precipitation chances for the area.

Sunday through Friday all look very similar with high temperatures in the low 80s to upper 90s. Beginning Wednesday there is slight increase with temperatures reaching near 100 degrees. The probability of exceeding 100 degrees for Wednesday through Friday is 5-10% for mainly areas south of I-70. Except for Friday, areas west of KS Hwy 27 along with south of I-70 will see 5-15% of exceeding 100 degrees. Moving to the winds they mainly remain out of the south-southeast. Gusts look to remain around 25-35 mph. RH values remain above 20% for the majority of the period as well.

As for precipitation/storm chances, PoPs are showing there being 15- 30% chance for the majority of the CWA for this period. Moving to storm potential, Guidance is showing there being around 1000-2000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE. Looking at Bulk Shear there is 25-40 kts. NCAR AI Convective Hazard Forecast products is showing there being around a 5-15% of severe hazards for at least one county in the CWA. Given the shortwaves that move through the area along with the storm ingredients there could be the potential of storms for the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area overnight with around a 30% probability of impacting either terminal with brief reductions in ceilings and visibility in rain, as well as gusty winds. The thunderstorms should exit the area by around 12z. Otherwise, VFR expected to prevail through Saturday afternoon. Next round of storms will move out of Colorado in the late afternoon or early Saturday evening, with a low probability of impacting KGLD with gusty winds from associated outflow.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ early this morning for NEZ079>081.