textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for severe storms continues for today and Thursday.

- Increasing signal for above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Strongest upper flow remains over the northern plains with an active northern stream. There is a cut off low in the much weaker southern stream meandering across the Baja of California today and into northern Mexico on Thursday. This feature appears to be the source of a weak shortwave that will move across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and into western Kansas this afternoon and tonight. It will provide just enough synoptic scale lift for scattered thunderstorms to develop on various surface features. A cold front located along I-76 in northeast Colorado into the Nebraska panhandle will be the main focus for convective initiation around 21z. The front is slightly further east compared to yesterday's model runs, close enough that some storms may drift into Yuma and Kit Carson counties and the Tri Border area through this evening. Additional but more scattered development may also occur along a north/south oriented stationary front/prefrontal trough that is straddling Highway 83 in Nebraska and Kansas. Best instability today will be along and east of that surface trough, where an axis of 1500-2000 j/kg of SBCAPE is forecast. West of the trough instability rapidly weakens to less than 1000j/kg and less than 500 j/kg in Colorado. Deep layer shear will 10-20 kts in the instability axis and 15-25 kts further west. DCAPE of up to 1500 j/kg is forecast through 00z in eastern areas and 1000 j/kg in western areas. Wind may end up being the primary hazard, and perhaps some blowing dust with a dry day Tuesday, as the weak shear will probably limit updraft organization. Nonetheless, any discrete cells in eastern areas where instability is highest may briefly pulse strong enough to produce hail to quarter or half dollar size through about 03z. Overall severe threat appears to be marginal at best.

On Thursday the northern stream jet sinks a bit further south into northern Colorado and Nebraska with a zonal flow over the central plains. Appears to be a weak embedded wave in the flow for Thursday afternoon. At the surface will be a moist southerly flow with no discernible convergence features. Convective initiation in the afternoon appears to be tied to the shortwave in southern Wyoming and weak low level upslope along the Front Range and Cheyenne Ridge. Storms will move east through the afternoon and approach the Colorado/Kansas border area around 00-03z. Instability in eastern Colorado is weak, less than 500 j/kg, but deep layer shear of 30-35 kts may be sufficient to maintain them as the move into the local area Thursday evening. Instability may have already peaked, but could see up to 1500 j/kg in Kansas and Nebraska through early evening. Main hazards will likely be wind and blowing dust with these storms and perhaps an embedded stronger storm or two capable of large hail if they can reach the higher instability in time. Storms will weaken as they continue east across the area through the evening, ending by 06z.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, zonal flow is forecast to be in place across the northern Plains. A mid level low pressure system is forecast to be near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle. Moisture is also forecast to be in place as well with a high pressure system cross the southeastern CONUS. Warm temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s remain forecast as well leading to the potential for at least isolated afternoon storm coverage. Currently not a strong signal for a favored area at this time but the pattern appears to be fairly similar to what is being observed currently. Additional diurnal storms off of the Rockies may be the most likely scenario for each afternoon. The difference appears to be the lack of upper level support which suggests that any storms that do manage to form may be rather pulsey in nature which puts any severe weather threat in question.

Through the weekend, ridging across the mountains is forecast to develop which may lead to slightly higher temperatures than currently forecast. The caveat may be that we will need to keep an eye for any disturbances along the eastern periphery of this ridge should it develop. Into early next week, troughing is forecast to redevelop across the western CONUS. Some breezier days may develop early next week with a tightening pressure gradient with the incoming trough and the lingering ridge across the area. With the increasing signal for synoptic forcing another return to a more active pattern may be possible.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the night and into Wednesday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop around mid afternoon, with best chances for impacts at KMCK through the early evening hours. Gusty winds and brief reductions in visibility in rain will be possible near any thunderstorm.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.