textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Southeasterly to southerly winds increase tonight, peaking as high as 25-35 mph, with gusts to 40-50 mph at times, along/west of US-83 tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours, highest across the KS/CO border along/near I-70.

- Chances of rain increase throughout Wednesday afternoon, becoming a widespread likely (70-90%) chance Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon.

- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) includes a Marginal and Slight Risk (levels 1/4 and 2/4) of isolated to scattered nuisance flooding and localized to isolated flash flooding on Wednesday and a Marginal Risk on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Mid/upper level south-southwesterly flow takes over tonight following the passage of a ridge axis extending northward from an expanding and building high pressure aloft moving eastward over Texas, likely maintaining dry conditions through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, a tightening pressure gradient gradually increases southeasterly winds, more noticeably along/west US-83, especially across the counties bordering the tri-state lines, where southeasterly winds of around 20-30 mph, gusting to 30-40+ mph at times, strengthen to/peak near 25-35 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph out of the south by mid-morning tomorrow, continuing into the early afternoon hours while areas further east enhance to as much as 20-25 mph, with gusts to 30-35 mph during the same timeframe.

Following, the gradient loosens and winds decrease throughout the remainder of Wednesday as the shortwave ejects over the Plains on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, favorable forcing and ascension aloft, coupled with well-above average moisture content, build chances of rain from west to east throughout Wednesday afternoon and evening to a widespread medium to high (50-80%) chance by late Wednesday night and a likely (70-90%) chance by Thursday morning, persisting through the afternoon hours. Chances of rain steadily decrease into Thursday night, with only a low (15-30%) chance by Friday morning. By Friday morning, we anticipate that most of the region will receive at least a 0.5-1.0 inch of rain and as much as 1.5 inch across portions of the southwestern Nebraska Counties. Yet, LREF probabilistic guidance suggests a 40-60% probability of totals exceeding 1.0 inch further south and west.

WPC's Excessive Rainfall Outlook Days 2 and 3 still maintain a near widespread Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of isolated nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding on Wednesday and Thursday as well as a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of scattered nuisance flooding and isolated flash flooding across the southern and southwestern portions of Greeley and Wichita counties on Wednesday, due to the possibility of heavy rain from thunderstorms and showers east and southeast of a potential developing surface low pressure system over eastern CO Wednesday afternoon, which could lead to slow-moving or training of convection. Although some CAMs suggest a bit more of an unstable airmass with modest (20-30 knots) bulk shear, lapse rates and cloudy skies should keep thunderstorms further south beneath severe limits though some stronger storms could produce frequent lightning, reduced visibility from heavy rain and some higher gusts.

Enhanced warm air advection is expected to warm high temperatures from mostly the mid/upper 70s today to the upper 70s/low 80s tomorrow as well as low/mid 70s on Thursday though areas further south and southeast could reach the upper 70s. Overnight lows continue in the mid/upper 50s along/west of US-38 and low 60s further east.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 205 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Synoptically, the ridge remains to the south over the Southern US / Gulf region. Guidance is in fairly good agreement regarding a shortwave moving through the region Friday through Saturday. However, some uncertainty remains as to how far south into the Tri-State area it will extend. Sunday through Monday, flow will be predominately zonal. Any shortwaves passing through the area will help increase precipitation chances.

High temperatures for the week look to remain in the mid to upper 80s for the majority of the Tri-State area, though both Friday and Tuesday will be a tad bit "cooler" with highs in the 70s. Friday holds the best precipitation chances for the long term period, with the Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) in the 20-60% range. The highest amounts are expected to be the eastern portions of the Tri- State area, as the upper level shortwave moves through. For the remainder of the period. PoPs stay around 15-30% as various afternoon showers move through. Friday is currently forecast to be the windiest day of the long term period, with sustained winds around 10-20 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Areas most likely to experience these winds will be east of the CO/KS border and south of I-70, primarily during the morning hours on Friday.

Tuesday into Wednesday next week look to be the most notable day of the long term period, though it is about seven days out and a fair amount can change. Currently, the Canadian-NH, ECMWF, and GFS models all show around a 571 dam upper-level trough moving through the Tri- State area, accompanied by a jet streak. The main uncertainty lies in how far south the trough tracks. It could pass as for south as the CO/KS/OK border or as far north as the CO/NE border. Additionally, all three deterministic models indicate some form of a surface low on Tuesday, but with little agreement regarding its location. With all of that being said, this could be our next precipitation system and will definitely be on our radar to keep and eye on.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

GLD: Main focus will be the increasing SE to SSE winds increasing from 15-20 knots with gusts of around 25 knots into this afternoon further enhancing overnight to near 20-25 knots, with gusts to 35-40 knots by mid to late tomorrow morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue with high level clouds becoming broken this evening and few to scattered tomorrow.

MCK: Latest satellite and observations reveal IFR ceilings along with a gentle southeasterly breeze as well as clearing of widespread cloud cover just to the southwest. As winds continue increasing, clearing is expected through the next few hours, leading to VFR conditions with southeasterly winds near 15 knots, gusting to 25 knots by 21Z this afternoon, perhaps a bit sooner. MVFR ceilings are expected to return by late tonight, lowering throughout tonight, followed by VFR conditions by late tomorrow morning as SSE winds increase to 15-20 knots with gusts of 30-35 knots.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.