textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated severe storm is possible over portions of northwest KS and southwest NE late this aft-eve, mainly north and east of Colby, KS between 6-11 pm CDT. Quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph are the primary threats, should storms develop.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Overview: Modest unidirectional /westerly/ flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State Area.. on the southern periphery of the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies.

Today: Expect modest southerly low-level flow and a warming trend (highs in the lower-mid 90s), on the eastern periphery of a broad surface trough in the lee of the central Rockies. Unimpeded insolation and rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the lower 60's) on the eastern periphery of a SW to NE oriented dryline will foster moderate diurnal destabilization (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) east of a line from Cheyenne Wells to Goodland and McCook late this afternoon. Whether or not weak low-level convergence in vicinity of the dryline will be sufficient to initiate deep/sustained high-based convection.. is unclear. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the 06Z HRRR indicate no convective development. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the 06Z NAM NEST indicate scattered convective development along portions of the dryline, mainly north and east of Goodland ~23-04Z (5-10p MDT). Moderate instability and ~25-35 KT effective deep layer shear are supportive of severe weather, should deep/sustained updrafts develop.

Tonight: Surface pressure rises over the Canadian Prairies, associated with height rises / synoptic subsidence in the wake of an upper level trough progressing east across Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will propel an inverted surface ridge southward through the Northern Plains tonight, the leading edge of which will manifest as a northeasterly wind shift and effective cold frontal passage around or shortly before sunrise Saturday (~08-10Z near the NE-KS border, ~10-12Z in Greeley/ Wichita counties). Sat morning lows will highly depend on the precise timing of the frontal passage / onset of modest low- level cold advection. High-res guidance suggests that minimum temps will occur around or shortly after sunrise (~12-14Z).. coolest (upper 50's) in northern and western portions of the area and warmest (mid-upper 60's) in southern and eastern portions of the area.

Sat-Sat night: Expect cooler temperatures in the wake of the front, with highs ranging from the upper 70's (north) to mid 80's (south) and Sun morning lows ranging from the mid 50's to lower 60's. Convection is not anticipated in the Goodland CWA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Starting Sunday, an upper level ridge starts to amplify in the Central Plains and into Montana as a low-pressure system in the Northwest slides northeast into Southern Canada on Monday. Once the low-pressure passes through, southwesterly flow returns and will stay until a broad upper-level trough comes through from the north, eventually returning back into the ridge pattern late in the week. This will allow chances for showers and cooling temperatures over next week. Monday and Tuesday will have the first potential for showers as the cold front moves through and transitions into southwesterly flow with embedded shortwaves on tuesday. There is high confidence (80%) that the cold front will occur Monday afternoon, but there is medium confidence (50%) that showers will linger into Tuesday.

On Wednesday and Thursday, conditions for showers look to be similar to Monday and Tuesday. A broader cold front will pass through overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning bringing a drier air mass and a ridge pattern over the area. Confidence decreases from medium to low (50-20%) over the two days as there is a large variability on when the cold front will pass through. While there is a decent chance (up to 45%) for showers across the area, latest guidance favors the southern half of the area for accumulations greater than a tenth of an inch of rain based on the southerly motion and timing of the front.

Temperatures will start in the low 90s Sunday and dip into the upper 80s and low 90s Monday. For Tuesday onwards, afternoon highs should remain in the 70s as a 5-degree temperature spread starts to form over the forecast area that could potentially put highs into the upper 70s. There is medium confidence (60%) that temperature will rise later in the week as we move back into the ridge pattern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. S to SSW winds at 10-15 knots will prevail through most of the morning, perhaps gusting to ~25 knots for a few hours after sunrise (~13-16Z) prior to weakening and becoming light and variable during the early afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Winds will become northeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots shortly before sunrise Sat, near the end of the 12Z TAF period.

MCK: A storm cannot be ruled-out in vicinity of the McCook terminal during the late afternoon and early evening (~00-03Z Sat). Confidence in storm development and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 12Z TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. S to SSW winds at 10-15 knots will prevail through sunrise. Gusts up to 20-25 knots are possible during the late morning and early afternoon (~14-21Z). Winds will veer to the SW or WSW during the mid-afternoon, become light/variable during the late afternoon and remain light through the evening. Winds will shift to the NE or ENE and increase to 10-15 knots a few hours prior to sunrise Sat, near the end of the 12Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.