textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms may develop around sunrise into early this morning generally along and north of Interstate 70. There is a chance, around 30%, that a stronger storm develops, capable of producing hail up to quarter size.

- There is a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening for the entire area. Supercells will be possible, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and blowing dust, and perhaps a tornado.

- Storm chances continue through much of the week. Severe weather is possible Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

In the near term, CAMs suggesting that elevated convection will develop in the area by 12z and persist into Monday morning. Favored area appears to be along and just of north of Interstate 70 from northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas. Models show a narrow baroclinic zone in that area where isentropic lift is maximized at 750-800 mb. The baroclinic zone lifts north and weakens by 15z. MUCAPE is around 1500-2000 j/kg and 0-6km shear around 50 kts, so cannot completely rule out an elevated severe storm capable of producing large hail during a brief window this morning (10-15z).

After the morning convection, will see several hours with no precipitation. Isolated storms will begin to develop by 21z in southwest Kansas near a surface low as well as near the Front Range in the upslope regime. Models show convection rapidly increasing in coverage in both areas by 23-00z as they move into the forecast area from the south and the west. The environment will consist of an axis of moderate instability, up to 1500 j/kg, from northeast Colorado into western Kansas at peak heating, though weaker further north and east. Deep layer shear is forecast at 40-50 kts. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but there does appear to be some phasing between embedded waves in the southwest flow around a ridge in the southern plains and an upper low in the northern Rockies. The deep layer shear should compensate for the relatively weak forcing and instability. A few supercells may develop, especially early with the more discrete cells before clustering in the evening. All hazards will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and blowing dust, as well as a tornado or two with several surface boundaries in the area. The severe threat will continue into the evening hours gradually shifting into eastern areas. Some storms will persist into the overnight hours with a marginal severe risk, as models show MUCAPE overnight of 500-1000 j/kg and 0-6 km shear still around 40-50 kts, though coverage will decrease.

Storms may persist into early Tuesday morning in far eastern portion of the area, east of Highway 23, before finally moving out. Tuesday afternoon the pattern is fairly similar to Monday. The upper flow will weaken slightly with a weaker ridge to the south and the northern Rockies upper low beginning to move north as well. The end result will see somewhat weaker deep layer shear, but still around 40 kts north of I-70 decreasing to around 20 kts to the south. Instability is forecast to be around 2000 j/kg at peak heating, highest in Colorado into western Kansas. The missing ingredient may be forcing, with only a hint of a weak wave in the flow aloft given the factors mentioned above. CAMs not in particularly good agreement, with the HRRR and RRFS showing little to no convection in the area, while the 3-km NAM suggests another round of severe storms. So, confidence is rather low regarding severe risk on Tuesday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, cooling a bit into the lower 80s for Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 117 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

For the extended period of the week, Wednesday there is a weak ridge that is sandwiched between two lows. The low pressure system to the northwest of the ridge, will kick out some shortwave disturbances that will bring precipitation chances to the region. Then the upper flow transitions to more zonal flow. As next weekend approaches, the upper pattern begins to change. There are signs of a trough that moves into the area from the Pacific Northwest.

Guidance has been showing the high temperatures to be in the mid 80s to low 90s for the majority of this period. The lows are forecast to be in the 50-60s range. Winds look to remain relatively calm and from the south to southeast. The only outlier in this is Wednesday where temperatures hangout in the mid to low 80s. However, the lows remain in the 50 to 60 range.

As for precipitation chances, the CWA is in the typical afternoon shower/storm chances in the afternoon/evening. Wednesday through Friday PoPs are in the 20-70% range. Saturday and Sunday's precipitation chances decrease to 10-30%. Each day is currently forecast to have atleast 1000 J/kg of SFC CAPE which would support storm development.

As for severe potential, there is no strong signal for anything yet. However, different guidance outputs have suggested that the shortwave disturbances could be stronger. Also, more moisture could be advected in increasing more fuel for storms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Main aviation concern for both KGLD and KMCK for the period will be thunderstorm chances. Overnight, scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms may develop towards 12z and persist into Monday morning. Confidence is low in both development and coverage, so will not mention in the TAFs at this time. Later in the afternoon, thunderstorms will redevelop across the area with an upper level disturbance. These storms will have better coverage and will continue into the evening hours. Potential impacts to the terminals will be brief gusty winds and minor visibility reductions in rain.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.