textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low (15%) chance for an isolated severe storm late this aft-eve, mainly in Cheyenne County, CO and Greeley County, KS between 6-10 PM MDT. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary threat.

- Dry conditions and near average temperatures expected over the weekend.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Overview: Modest WNW flow aloft (today) will transition to NW- NNW flow aloft on Saturday as an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/4-Corners extends northward over the central and northern Rockies.

Today-Tonight: Not like yesterday. The robust mesoscale convective system (MCS) that traversed the region late yesterday evening and very early this morning substantially altered environmental conditions over the Tri-State Area, where cooler temperatures associated with a lingering mesoscale high have maintained a fair amount of convective inhibition and a modified elevated mixed layer characterized by modest (7.0-7.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates have stunted diurnal destabilization, limiting instability to ~500-1000 J/kg (mlcape). As of 21Z, warmer temperatures / more substantial airmass recovery at higher elevations on the Palmer Divide (between Colorado Springs and Limon) has resulted in the development of scattered diurnal convection. Unorganized updrafts moving with the mean wind (from the WNW, 290@15 KT) could eventually progress downstream into western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in CO. Given that right-mover motion is from the NNW (340@15KT), cyclonic updrafts will tend to propagate southeast toward La Junta/Lamar, paralleling the Goodland CWA. On the other hand, with left-mover motion from the SW (240@15KT), anticyclonic splits (if long- lived) could readily propagate into western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via recent (18-19-20Z) runs of the HRRR suggest that organized convection will largely be confined west and south of the Goodland CWA. Localized wind gusts to ~70 mph are the primary threat. A few instances of large hail are possible with anticyclonic updrafts (if present).

Sat-Sat night: Modest low-level southerly flow will return to the Tri-State Area on Sat, as a broad N-S elongated surface trough develops in the lee of the central-nothern Rockies. Despite airmass recovery, guidance suggests that synoptic subsidence beneath the amplifying ridge will tend to suppress convective development. Even if diurnal convection develops along the Colorado Front Range or higher elevations on the Palmer Divide, steering flow from the NNW or N would tend to keep activity in close proximity to the Rockies. Expect dry conditions in the Goodland CWA and near average highs.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 129 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a 500-mb ridge will be overhead throughout the long term forecast period. High temperatures are forecast to be primarily in the lower 90s through Wednesday afternoon. Relative humidities (RH) look to steadily drop throughout the period, but are forecast to remain above 20% across the area. This would keep heat index values in the upper 80s and lower 90s at least through Wednesday afternoon, well below the threshold for a Heat Advisory (Heat Index greater than 105 degrees).

Forecast guidance shows high temperatures highest toward the end of next week, in the mid 90s Thursday and Friday. This may be linked to a stronger upper-level trough beginning to break down the longwave ridge across the Western United States. However, there is uncertainty regarding the strength and track of this trough, in addition to whether it will actually be successful in breaking down the ridge. If this feature can break down the ridge a bit and move more into the Northern United States, increased southerly flow ahead of a surface low may allow for the slight temperature increase. This could aid in RH values dropping into the lower 20s across portions of East- Central Colorado. While this is above critical fire weather criteria, it will be something to keep an eye on, as fuels have remained relatively dry across this zone despite recent rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. Cloud cover, if any, will be confined to transient wisps of cirrus at or above 20,000 ft AGL. Light (5-10 knot) northerly to easterly or variable winds this evening and overnight will become southeasterly Sat morning and increase to 10-15 knots by late morning to early afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.