textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild conditions are forecast, but fog is possible each morning through at least Sunday.

- An active weather pattern may develop late this week, bringing potential for more widespread precipitation throughout the weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 309 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Current observations have broad upper southwest flow over the area, bringing in a few high clouds. At the surface, high pressure has moved in from the north and is pushing east of the area. Fog has been trying to develop this morning with NW Kansas and SW Nebraska under easterly flow at the surface. However, the slight northerly component has made the upslope flow not as strong. Also, the high level cloud cover has occasionally insulated temperatures and hindered fog development. This will likely continue for a few hours during the early morning hours. However, the upper level cloud cover should lower in coverage while winds shift to be more easterly, at least in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. This should help fog develop around sunrise, with dense fog also likely developing in areas. For now, Highway 36 and south are favored where it has been clearer. Any fog and low cloud cover that forms should persist through most of the morning, with the cloud cover even forecast to persist into the afternoon. This should lead to a disparity in temperatures with 60s in Eastern Colorado, but 50s in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Otherwise, there may be a few showers east of a line from Leoti, KS to Trenton, NE this afternoon and evening as a small low pressure center tries to build just southeast of the area.

Tonight, fog is forecast to try and return to the area as we remain near saturated at the surface. If the precipitation doesn't form or ends early, there will likely be dense fog before sunrise. Even so, it may be more patchy as mid to high level cloud cover is forecast to pass over in the southwest flow and try to keep temperatures insulated and up. Either way, it should be a damp and cloudy night with temperatures likely lingering in the 40s.

Friday, the broad southwest flow aloft continues. That being said, tilted troughing is forecast to move in and help develop low pressure along the Front Range. This is forecast to strengthen the low level flow from the southeast and help keep low level moisture in the area. The winds may become just strong enough to dissipate any fog by the late morning hours. Should the fog break, highs should reach the 60s. Otherwise, temperatures will likely cap again in the 50s. But with the low just west of the area and a shortwave forecast to move through the upper flow, showers and maybe a storm are forecast to develop later in the day Friday. NW Kansas and SW Nebraska are favored, with rain totals ranging from a trace to maybe up to a quarter of an inch. The lack of strong forcing and instability is expected to keep the rain totals low.

Friday night, any showers should slowly end from west to east as the shortwave pushes east and the surface pressure pattern becomes less defined. However, with the low pressure still to the west and high pressure to the east, fog should develop again in the weak easterly upslope flow. Similar to the past few night, dense patches are possible. The main inhibitor will be any lingering rain and the mid to high level cloud cover over the area. Temperatures should again lower into the 40s.

Saturday, the pattern is not forecast to change much with upper southwest flow and the area between surface low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east. As such, conditions should be similar with a foggy start to the morning followed by mostly cloudy skies through the remainder of the day. Temperatures are forecast to near 60. Fog would then be a concern again going into the overnight hours Saturday and into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 244 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

For Sunday, high temperatures are forecast in the 50s to 60s. Storm chances start Sunday evening with PoPs of 50-75% increasing west to east. Precipitation type will likely be rain based on forecast temperatures and cloud cover. Instability is overall weak with modest lapse rates and spotty CAPE values of <500 J/kg, so a weak thunderstorm or two isn't out of the question for the eastern county warning area (CWA) if it is able to tap into the weak instability in the environment.

Upper-level features are likely to send us into a more active weather pattern Sunday through at least Tuesday. A deep trough is forecast to extend from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) southeast with a second trough not too far behind it in the western Pacific. As these features propogate east, it will allow the subtropical jet to drift north placing a strong jet streak across the region Sunday. Models also show a surface low develop in eastern Colorado Sunday evening and propogate east sometime overnight into Monday. Ensembles generally agree that the low will set up in eastern Colorado, but diverge on when it will traverse east and where it will set up. Currently, ensembles show the surface low setting up somewhere in the Central Plains or the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. The interaction, track, and evolution of these surface and upper-level features will play a major role in our weather pattern heading into the work week.

The upper-level pattern could support a high wind event Monday and Tuesday, but the big question will be where the surface low tracks and the amount of cloud cover across the CWA. Clear skies will allow stronger winds to mix down to the surface while clouds will keep the winds above the surface. If we end up with clear skies and a low further south or east of the CWA, we could see wind gusts up to 60 mph Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Dust would be unlikely for areas that received precipitation over the weekend and current forecast lapse rates are unsupportive of dust being lofted. A low tracking over the CWA would likely increase precipitation chances and cloud cover, overall lowering risk for strong winds. Low confidence in which scenario will play out. It will heavily depend on the track and evolution of the aforementioned upper-level troughs over the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions are in place at both KGLD and KMCK, however that is expected to change once fog develops over the next few hours. Guidance consistently shows fog holding off at KGLD until later portions of the critical TAF period, however breaks in cloud cover suggest development may come sooner, with LIFR conditions expected by around 09Z. Models have been hesitant to bring fog into KMCK, though observations show some signal of fog development already, and so it has been included as well. Fog is not expected to lift until around 16Z, though low cloud cover is expected to remain in place through the day. Fog may develop again toward the latter of the TAF period, though guidance is unclear on the timing and intensity, as that will depend on how much heating takes place and how much cloud cover remains by evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.