textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and warming trend over the weekend.

- First half of the up coming week, increased potential for precipitation across the region.

- Minimum temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday nights may drop into the mid to upper 20s across portions of Eastern Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1239 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

Today, we'll reside under the shield of a 500 mb high. This will prevent precipitation and allow us to warm into the 70s, and push RH values into the teens. Thankfully, winds look to remain weak with only occasional gusts around 20 kts, minimizing any fire weather concerns. Temperatures overnight will also remain warmer, likely only cooling to around 40.

Tomorrow, the high remains in place and highs will warm to around 80. Winds look to be north/northeasterly tomorrow, so compressional heating is not likely to play a big factor in the high temperatures. These winds will bring in some mile moisture advection, however only the northeastern CWA looks to really benefit in the form of slightly higher RH values. Locations along and southwest of a line from Yuma, CO to Gove, KS look to see RH values in the low and mid teens. Additionally, we could see occasional gusts of 25 kts mix to the surface, leading to briefly critical fire weather conditions in this area. There is only a 10% chance Red Flag criteria is met as consistent critical winds are not expected.

Overnight, lows look to cool to around 40 as the high falls apart, northwesterly flow aloft returns, and a shortwave trough come off the northern Rockies. This give the northern sliver of Yuma county a 10% chance at seeing some light rain before midnight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 306 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

***Synopsis***

Monday morning, a trough looks to exist across the Southwestern United States as part of a split flow upper-level pattern across the West Coast. At the same time, another shortwave trough looks to dig into the United States from Canada. As a consequence of this upper- level pattern, a surface high pressure system looks to move south- southeastward into the Northern High Plains, allowing a moderate to strong cold front to sweep through the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours Monday. Ensemble guidance is consistent on troughing remaining overhead through at least Wednesday afternoon, and possibly into the overnight hours. A split flow upper-level pattern looks to reestablish itself over the West Coast by Thursday morning, with northwesterly flow across the forecast region. This pattern is favored to persist through the end of the period. Several shortwave features may also impact the region during this time.

***Monday***

Downsloping southwesterly to westerly surface flow is favored ahead of Monday's cold front. As such, conditions Monday afternoon look to be warm and dry. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid- 70s to mid-80s, with relative humidity (RH) values in the mid to upper-teens. Despite these low RH values, critical fire weather concerns for Monday are currently marginal at best. The greatest chances to see critical fire weather conditions exist across portions of Eastern Colorado, where forecast wind gusts are in the 25-30 mph range. NBM guidance shows as high as a 2 in 3 chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for the hazard across portions of Western Yuma and Northern Kit Carson Counties in Colorado, but less than a 1 in 3 chance that they are higher than 30 mph. Even so, the best chances for RH to meet criteria for critical fire weather lies across Western Cheyenne County in Colorado, with as high as a 50% chance according to LREF guidance. Considering that these zones are not collocated, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Monday afternoon rests at around 5% or less.

Precipitation may be experienced along the incoming cold front as well. Some of this activity may be convective in nature, as LREF guidance suggests most locations in the CWA have a 75% chance or better for CAPE (instability) to be present. However, the same guidance suggests this instability to be fairly marginal, as the entire forecast region has less than a 1 in 3 chance to experience greater than 200 J/kg of CAPE. As such, light precipitation seems to be the most likely outcome, with some locally stronger showers possible. All locations across the CWA have less than a 15% chance of seeing greater than 0.1 inches of rain from this activity.

***Tuesday/Wednesday***

With troughing overhead Tuesday and Wednesday, cooler conditions appear likely. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid- 40s to mid-50s both days, with even 90th percentile high temperatures from the NBM in the lower-60s. A slow-moving surface low pressure moving across the Rockies is favored to establish a zone of convergence across much of Kansas as well, which would allow precipitation to occur both days. LREF guidance shows less than a 30% chance both days for greater than 50 J/kg of CAPE, which would indicate that this activity is unlikely to be convective. It seems more likely that this precipitation will be driven by the synoptic lift from the convergence zone across Kansas. While forecast guidance does suggest small chances for showers and thunderstorms, light rain seems more likely from this setup. Additionally, as temperatures cool overnight Tuesday, some precipitation may begin to fall as snow across portions of Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday night may drop into the mid to upper-20s across this zone, which may indicate the need for a Freeze Watch or Freeze Warning if the cooler trend continues.

***Thursday-Saturday***

As northwesterly flow aloft establishes itself overhead with a split flow to the west, warmer conditions are forecast to return. Highs currently look to be in the low to mid-70s Thursday, and mid-70s to low-80s Friday and Saturday. While forecast guidance shows minimal chances for precipitation during this period, several shortwave troughs embedded in the northwesterly flow could allow a few slight chances for showers. NBM guidance suggests that there is less than a 10% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain from this activity. However, LREF guidance does suggest that a reasonable maximum of 500 J/kg of CAPE is possible, which could produce localized showers with slightly higher amounts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 440 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the period. Winds varying from west to south gusting around 15-20 kts are forecast to become less common by 2Z, then southwesterly winds will dominate. The winds will become northwesterly overnight then northeasterly after sunrise tomorrow. KMCK is forecast to see LLWS at 200-400 feet AGL from the west-southwest around 40 kts mainly from 6-13Z. KMCK winds look to become northeasterly after sunrise.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.