textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier conditions and warmer temperatures through the weekend.

- Windy conditions Friday afternoon in northeast Colorado where southerly winds may gust up to 45 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will be the dominant upper feature, with a weak northwest flow around it over the Central Plains. At the surface, high pressure over the upper midwest and the lee trough in eastern Colorado will increase the pressure gradient, resulting in breezy to windy south to southeast winds in parts of the area. Highest gusts will be in northeast Colorado where latest NBM percentiles show gusts up to 45 mph along Highway 59 from Yuma to Seibert and west. Gusts drop off in Kansas with up to 30 mph generally north of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25. Elsewhere, winds will be lighter. Winds will diminish in the early evening. Otherwise, looking at mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows Friday night in the mid to upper 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 248 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Synoptically, very little has changed for Sunday through Thursday. For the majority of this period, our upper level flow is forecast to remain from the northwest. Near the Four Corners region, an upper level ridge is expected to stay near stationary as various troughs move troughs move along the US/Canada border with the jet stream. Guidance continues to indicate that a shortwave trough could move through the Tri-State Area around Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track and strength of the shortwave.

High temperatures for the week are currently forecast to be in the 80s for the majority of the period. Currently, the coolest day is forecast to be Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 70s. The warmest day is forecast to be Tuesday with highs in the 80s across most of the County Warning Area (CWA). Precipitation chances for this period remain quite low, with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 5- 10% each day. However, if the potential shortwave moving through on Tuesday/Wednesday continues to intensify, there could be a slight increase in PoPs.

Winds for the period look to remain mainly under 20 mph, with gusts under 25 mph out of the south. Monday afternoon still appears to be the windiest day, with sustained southernly winds around 10-20 mph and gusts reaching 25-35 mph. Looking at Deterministic guidance, the Canadian-NH, ECMWF, and GFS all show an 850 mb jet set up over the Tri-State area oriented south to north, however each model have the jet at different intensities. Ensemble guidance remains in slight disagreement on where the highest gusts will be seen. The LREF favors more widespread gusts of 25-30 mph across the CWA, where as the NBM has the gusts of 25-35 mph primarily west of Hwy 83 and north of Hwy 40. Fire weather concerns remain low for the CWA, as relative humidity values generally stay above 25% on Monday and recent precipitation will likely keep soil moisture fairly saturated.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For KGLD and KMCK... VFR conditions are anticipated with mostly clear skies through the forecast period, however, there is a slight chance (10-15%) that light fog or low stratus may develop after 06Z given southerly return flow. Southerly winds will remain gusty through the period with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.