textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible over a limited portion of the area on Friday, mainly in northeast Colorado.

- A system may affect the region early next week with increasing precipitation potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1234 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Today remains a mild day with clear to mostly clear skies under northwest flow aloft as an area of high pressure at the 300 mb layer sits over the Baja Peninsula. There are some elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns this afternoon primarily along and west of Kansas Highway 27. A limiting factor for fire concerns is how quickly relative humidity (RH) values will be able to drop to 15% while the northwest winds continue to gust up to 35 mph over the next 2-3 hours. Currently RH values are expected to drop during the mid- late afternoon when winds are beginning to decrease for the day. Grassland Fire Danger Index also favoring the low end "High" threat risk only for portions of Yuma and Kit Carson counties which keeps confidence at least 60% that any critical fire conditions that do occur are more local than widespread. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s (East-Central Colorado) to the mid 30s.

Little change to the forecast on Friday. A surface low is developing at the base of a lee trough in Eastern New Mexico/Texas Panhandle. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with dewpoint temperatures in the upper teens to 20s, creating more widespread elevated fire weather concerns as RH values drop into the low to mid teens across the area. Fortunately, the northwest winds should be lighter at 10-20 mph sustained with sporadic gusts to 30 mph possible. The strongest winds look to be primarily in Yuma County and the northern half of Kit Carson County. So far confidence is about 25% on reaching 3+ hours of critical conditions in those two counties, so we have held off on any formal fire headlines for now. Burning remains not advised as fuels remain plenty dry across the area and fires can spread quickly. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s once again.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 305 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Saturday, we remain in a predominately northwest flow with a developing low pressure system off the coast of California. Temperatures are still unseasonably warm with highs forecast in the 60s to 70s. Saturday night, a backdoor cold front will pass through the region cooling our area down. High temperatures range from the 30s to the 50s, warming from east to west. There is a bit of uncertainty with how cool the northeastern portion of the county warning area (CWA) will get. NBM 75-25th percentile differences in high temperatures have a spread of around 10 degrees F. Forecast temperatures will be lower if the cold front dips further south or further west.

Overnight Saturday throughout Sunday, we have a slight chance for precipitation due to embedded shortwaves and vorticity maxima traversing through the area. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 10-30% overnight with the eastern CWA on the higher end. Overnight temperatures drop low enough to support snow as the primary precipitation type, but there is a low chance for freezing drizzle for the western CWA if temperatures can get warm enough.

Sunday has quite the range of temperatures as the Polar jet traverses east while the Subtropical jet remains over our region. High temperatures range from the 30s to 50s, warming east to west. If the Polar jet dips a bit further south and more cooler air is advected in the northeast portion of the CWA, we may see overall cooler temperatures. Overall, winds will be mild for the CWA, but our Colorado counties could see afternoon gusts up to 25 mph.

Monday, our region is in a northwest upper level flow with a low pressure system on the west coast progged to move towards our region as the week progresses. Winds will be the main concern Monday with gusts from 25-40 mph possible. The highest wind gusts are expected for the western CWA. High temperatures are forecast in the 40s to 50s. Precipitation chances return overnight into Tuesday due to embedded shortwaves passing through the region and increased upper level support from a jet streak. PoPs range from 20-30% with a wintery mix expected.

Tuesday morning, we start to see effects from the previously mentioned low pressure system. As this enters our region, PoPs increase for the entire CWA ranging from 50-70%. High temperatures are forecast above freezing in the 50s to 60s, so rain is the currently forecast precipitation type. NBM 75-25th percentile differences in high temperatures have a spread of around 9 degrees F currently, so there is a good amount of uncertainty on temperatures for this event. If temperatures are on the lower end, there is the potential freezing rain or any accumulated precipitation on roadways to refreeze.

We see continued chances for precipitation throughout the day Tuesday and through Wednesday evening. Precipitation will exit the region from west to east by late Wednesday. PoPs are down to <20% by Wednesday night.

Thursday we have a ridge overhead, so unseasonably warm temperatures make a come back with high temperatures forecast in the 60s to 70s. Fire weather may be a concern depending on how relative humidity (RH) values respond to precipitation earlier in the week. Current RH values are forecast in the low 20s for our Colorado counties with winds up to 30 mph possible. Low confidence on this currently, but something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1015 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

GLD: VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will rule through the TAF period. W to NW winds at 5-10 knots will prevail through sunrise. A few hours after sunrise, by ~16Z, NW winds will modestly increase to 10-15 knots and persist through the afternoon. Winds will weaken and become variable around, or shortly before, sunset and remain light/variable through the evening.

MCK: VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will rule through the TAF period. W to WSW winds at 5-10 knots will prevail through sunrise. A few hours after sunrise, by ~16Z, NW winds will increase to 10-15 knots and may gust to ~20 knots during the late morning and early afternoon. NW winds will decrease to ~7-12 knots during the late afternoon, become light/variable around, or shortly before, sunset and remain light/variable through the evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.