textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will end through the late afternoon and evening hours today.

- A 20% chance of fog across southwestern portions of the area. If fog can be persistent then some freezing fog is possible leading to slick elevated surfaces.

- Another chance for precipitation is forecast around Sun/Mon.

- Colder pattern expected around Thanksgiving.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1223 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low pressure system continues to push to the east and is slowly ending the forcing resulting in lighter rain occurring and eventually ending as the afternoon goes on before completely ending this evening as isentropic lift across the east wanes. I did keep some slight chance rain mention in for portions of eastern Colorado as some straggling showers may be possible on the back end of the low as it moves out as the RAP and NAM both suggest some lingering 850-770mb moisture in that area. Winds are forecast to become more west-southwesterly this evening and overnight as overnight low temperatures fall into the 30s across the area. Some guidance wants to redevelop some low level moisture across Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, Greeley and Sherman counties Saturday morning. At this time thinking should this occur stratus would be the main concern but HREF visibility probabilities suggests there is a 10% chance of fog. Should this occur then freezing fog would become a concern. Given the climatological unfavorable fog set up with the west-southwest winds confidence is low in the fog formation but have went ahead and added in patchy wording into the forecast due to the newly saturated boundary layer and if the winds can go light for long enough then a 20% chance of at least patchy fog could be on the table.

Saturday, is forecast to see warmer temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s across the area as southwesterly winds continue ahead of another trough across the SW CONUS. Some mid level clouds are forecast to develop along with some weak omega in the in the 850- 700mb level which may yield some sprinkles across western portions of the area through the mid afternoon hours before drier low level air moves in from the east. As the trough continues to move towards the area moisture is again forecast to increase leading to another potential for fog, this time dense potential due to higher sfc-1km mixing ratio differences especially across eastern portions of the area where winds are forecast to become more variable.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Starting the extended period Sunday, the trough ejects onto the High Plains leading to breezy conditions during the day with winds gusting 25-35 mph. Moisture is also forecast to increase as well as the day goes on resulting in increasing clouds and increasing rain chances. GEFS spread suggests that there is potential that a weak cyclogenesis with this trough can set up a little further west which would lead to more rainfall initially but would set up dry slotting scenario which would reduce the potential for another long widespread duration rainfall event. At this time it appears that a few tenths of an inch at best will be the most likely outcome with this next round of rainfall.

Monday, a clipper system across the northern Plains is forecast to send a cold front into the area during the late afternoon/early evening. Ahead of that however gusty to perhaps strong winds may be possible but will be dependent on how the previous day low ejects out. GEFS and the deterministic 06 and 12Z GFS wants to bring it into north central Kansas/south central Nebraska which would increase the wind field from a mountain wave off of the Cheyenne Ridge. ECWMF ensembles and the 06Z deterministic ECMWF make it more broad across southern Kansas leading to mainly breezy winds but nothing out of the norm for the High Plains. The Canadian ensembles are split between the two solutions. If the GFS is correct then wind gusts of 45-55 mph along with the potential for some 60-65 mph gusts may be on the table with perhaps some blowing dust as well with mixing heights of 3500-4000 feet throughout the day and unstable 0- 2km lapse rates around 9-9.5 c/km. At this time am leading to a blend of the two which is similar to the NAEFS Mean currently which would support mainly a nuisance wind day and little threat for dust. There is however the spread of the positioning of the 500mb low as well seen in that so will need to keep an eye on this potential.

As mentioned, a cold front is forecast to move through Monday night into Tuesday with northwest synoptic flow continuing for the area before a return to near normal temperatures Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. With the front it appears that a single night of below normal temperatures is forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as temperatures fall into the teens. Cloud cover may help prevent optimal radiational cooling potential which would lead to low temperatures in the low teens to perhaps even some spotty single digits.

Late week and into next weekend guidance continues to suggest a stronger cold front may move through the area leading to a period of below to well below normal temperatures. However not all ensemble members are on board with this cold air according to the 12Z ECMWF and 12Z GEFS with the front being more delayed into the first week of December. Continue to keep up to the date with the latest forecast especially with the upcoming holiday and travel week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 950 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Stratus and light rain continues across the area and should do so through the remainder of the afternoon before conditions gradually improve as the afternoon goes on. VFR conditions are forecast to return to both terminals around 02Z with MCK forecast to occur first as drier air begins to work in. Winds are also forecast to become more westerly as well this evening and through the end of the period. There is a 5-10% chance of additional fog or stratus resulting in IFR or less conditions Saturday morning. Due to the west winds confidence is lower on this occurring however.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.