textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible anywhere in the Tri-State Area Sunday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. Northwest Kansas is most at-risk for significant severe weather. Considerable uncertainty persists with regard to thunderstorm location and coverage during the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 400 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Through Sunday night: Potent shortwave energy moving ashore central-southern California tonight will progress E across the 4-Corners/central Rockies (Sun) and Central Plains (Sun night). An associated lee cyclone developing in southeast CO on Sunday will track east across southwest KS then NE across central- northeast Kansas Sun eve/night.. along the southern and eastern periphery of a cool, shallow airmass /inverted surface ridge/ extending southward into northwest KS. The evolution of this cool, shallow airmass.. the extent to which it modifies and recedes northward during the day on Sunday.. will be central to virtually all important aspects of the forecast, as it will be a key factor determining the precise track of the lee cyclone.. and northern extent of the warm sector.. Sunday afternoon. High- res convection allowing models continue to suggest that elevated convection will develop atop the cool, shallow airmass in place over northwest KS between sunrise and noon (~12-18Z), albeit to varying degrees (coverage varies from model-to-model and run- to-run). Elevated showers will tend to reinforce the cool, shallow airmass.. delaying it's modification and northward recession. 18Z runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest two potential areas of concern from a severe convection standpoint: (1) northeast CO, where the cooler airmass is far shallower /likely to mix-out/ and a narrow portion of the warm sector may extend northward along the Hwy 385 corridor and (2) locations south and east of Goodland, on the southern fringe of the cooler airmass, where a portion of the warm sector will likely reside for a period during the mid-late afternoon. Both areas could potentially see isolated/discrete supercells capable of producing all hazards, though.. low-level moisture and instability will be most favorable south and east of Goodland. Precipitation chances will end from west-to-east Sun evening/night.. as the aforementioned shortwave energy and associated lee cyclone progress downstream toward Missouri.

Mon-Mon night: Expect cool conditions and little chance for precipitation in the wake of the departing system, during the day on Monday. Another shortwave traversing the 4-Corners and central Rockies may bring showers to the the region late Mon eve/night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Broad upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Central United States Tuesday morning, with embedded shortwave systems in this flow. This pattern is favored to last through Wednesday, with meandering temperatures and potentially some precipitation. Cooler conditions are possible Tuesday as a shortwave trough traverses the forecast region, with highs forecast in the upper-50s to lower-70s. Additionally, NBM guidance favors rain across much of the forecast region Tuesday, and suggests up to a 65% chance for over 0.1 inches of rain across portions of Southwest Nebraska and Eastern Colorado. Similar conditions may be experienced on Wednesday ahead of another shortwave trough, with high temperatures forecast in the mid-60s to lower-70s, and up to a 55% chance for over 0.1 inches of rain in Northeastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska. LREF guidance suggests that all areas in the forecast region Tuesday and Wednesday have less than a 10% chance of CAPE greater than 500 J/kg, but at least a 1 in 3 chance that CAPE will be present. As such, showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out either day.

Going into Thursday, the broader upper-level trough looks to be moved off into the Eastern United States, with Wednesday's shortwave system still extending into the Central United States. At the same time, a split flow looks to be established over the Western United States, producing another shortwave trough across the southwest. These two shortwave systems may slightly merge together, allowing troughing to remain overhead Thursday and Friday. Cool, wet conditions look to continue with this pattern, with highs in the upper-50s to lower-60s Thursday and Friday, and a 50% chance or greater of rainfall over 0.1 inches across most of the forecast area according to NBM guidance. Once again, LREF guidance does suggest CAPE will be present both days, but likely less than about 300 J/kg. Showers and possibly weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

A surface low pressure traversing Southern Canada Saturday may allow conditions to warm up a little bit during the afternoon. High temperatures are currently forecast in the upper-60s to lower-70s. Precipitation may still linger in the forecast area during this time, though chances currently appear lower at less than 20%.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 450 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail at both terminals this afternoon, with ceilings deteriorating to IFR this evening (after sunset) and persisting through Sunday morning. Breezy N to NNE winds at 15-20 knots w/gusts to ~25 knots will veer to the NE and decrease to 12-17 knots this evening, further decreasing to 5-10 knots by sunrise Sunday. Winds will veer to the E and SE during the late morning and S during the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.