textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the remainder of the week.

- Scattered storms expected today and Wednesday. A few severe storms are possible on both days, mainly ~3-10 PM MDT. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary threat. A few instances of large hail possible. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage.

- A mainly dry period is expected Thursday and Friday before another chance for storms on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Overview: SW flow aloft will persist over the region, between a pronounced ridge over the MS/TN River Valley and a broad upper level trough over the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.

Today-Wednesday: Mainly a persistence forecast.. the broad strokes, at least. Guidance continues to indicate relatively little change in the synoptic pattern during the next 36 hours. Above normal temperatures are likely across the entire area. In contrast to the past few days, scattered diurnal convection may alter/modify environmental conditions to some extent.

Severe Weather Today: Fairly typical summer-time pattern with SW steering flow, steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate instability and strong DCAPE. In this case, effective deep layer shear will be greatest along and just east of the CO Front Range and instability will be greatest further to the east, over northwest KS and southwest KS. Guidance suggests that small amplitude shortwave energy in SW flow aloft will aid in the development of scattered convection over portions of CO and western KS ~21Z this afternoon, with said activity progressing downstream (northeast) toward southwest and south-central NE during the late afternoon and evening. There is a considerable amount of model-to-model and run-to-run variability with regard to the location and coverage of convection today (check out simulated reflectivity forecasts from current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST). Low confidence in convective coverage/location. Environmental conditions certainly support a potential for locally damaging winds with any deep convection. While large hail is certainly possible with any supercells, convection allowing guidance continues to suggest that supercellular organization, if present, would be isolated and short-lived in nature.

Severe Weather Wed: Expect environmental conditions similar to, albeit slightly less favorable, than today. Convection this afternoon and evening will, no doubt, alter environmental conditions to some extent. Very low confidence in convective development, location and coverage on Wed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Scattered convection looks to remain possible Wednesday. Then as upper level ridging noses northward Thursday into Friday, a lull in convection appears to occur. By Saturday a strong shortwave is slated to cross the Northern Plains. Our area will be on the southern flank of the stronger forcing, but there will be some chance for storms as a cold front settles southward through the area. Upper level ridging then begins to build northward Sunday into the first of next week. It will be quite warm through the period, with the hottest day slated to be Friday, when highs in the upper 90s to near 100 are expected.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Storms could potentially affect either/both terminals this afternoon and evening, mainly between ~22-02Z. Low confidence in thunderstorm location and coverage. VFR conditions will otherwise rule through the 06Z TAF period. Light northerly or variable winds are expected to prevail through sunrise. Low confidence in wind speed/direction during the day. Broadly speaking, expect that winds will shift to the E during the late morning and SE to S during the afternoon. Gusty/erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of any storms.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.