textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing fog and drizzle are creating hazardous travel conditions across the area today into tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory remains active until tonight.

- Large temperature gradient across the area over the weekend, with colder temperatures generally east of Highway 83/23 and milder temperatures in Colorado.

- Milder temperatures in the 50s, 60s, and maybe 70s return next week with some fire weather risks.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 155 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

Freezing fog is moving across the area. Within this fog, expect visibilities to reduce to less than a mile, down to 1/4 mile. This freezing fog will also lead to some ice accumulation. Travel will be hazardous today, which is why we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Tri-State area until 6Z.

Guidance is not handling this event at all, so our best predictions are as follows. As far as ice accumulations go, locations along and north of U.S. 36 and along and east of KS 25 will receive the highest amounts from this event. Thankfully most of this ice formed this morning and only a trace to a couple hundredths are likely to accrete this afternoon and evening. Locations to the south of U.S. 36 in Kansas will see the bulk of the new ice accumulation this afternoon and evening. This area will likely get between 0.01 to 0.1 inch of icing by the end of the event. Most places will get the lower end amounts, but with a cold front moving through, pushing this freezing fog to the southwest, light forcing is expected. The light forcing, which should be pretty isolated, but will lead to freezing drizzle and potentially brief snowfall. In eastern Colorado, the freezing fog could linger well into the night, but southerly winds between 3-9Z may dry out the surface and end the fog in this time frame. We are expecting a light glazing of ice accretion in this area, which will make surfaces slick.

The fog and icing threat will be ending from northeast to southwest. As of 2030Z, KMCK and KNRN are showing improvement, but patchy fog is reported upstream to the northeast. By 0Z, locations northeast of Trenton, NE to Hill City, KS should be clear of the bulk of the freezing fog. Into the overnight hours, the fog will slowly creep to the west-southwest as the east side clears out. More information about the overnight fog is found after the next paragraph.

Temperatures today have likely already hit their apex, which is much cooler than was expected. This freezing fog and stratus deck are expected to linger all day, which will prevent temperatures from climb any more than they already have.

Overnight, an inverted ridge will be moving across the CWA. This will bring in cold, drier air to the northeastern CWA and will keep the cold moist air over the western CWA. Patchy freezing fog is expected to linger all night along and west of KS 25. This will lead to slick patches, especially in the southwestern corner of the CWA. Stratus will also persist along and west of KS 25, preventing the temperatures from dropping too much. Lows in the damp parts of the CWA will cool into the upper teens to low 20s. In the drier half of the CWA, lows will cool into the low teens to upper single digits. There is a 20% chance Norton and Red Willow counties drop to around 7 degrees if drier dew points move into the area.

Sunday, the lingering fog should lift in the morning and southerly flow will warm up the western half of the CWA into the 40s to low 50s. The eastern half of the CWA will also have southerly flow, but due to the amount of CAA overnight, temperatures will likely remain in the 30s. We could also see some 20-25 kts gusts across the area from the south-southwest in the afternoon hours.

Sunday night, another weak cold front will be moving through the CWA, but lows will be warmer, thanks to the WAA earlier in the day. Across the CWA, lows will remain in the 20s, potentially upper teens in the eastern CWA. We cannot rule out some patchy freezing fog in the eastern CWA as RH values will reach near 100%. However, with a trough moving through and westerly winds, the potential for fog is less than 5%.

Monday, we will be warming quickly to around 60. This will lower RH values into the mid teens in eastern Colorado and 20-30% elsewhere. Fire weather conditions are not overly concerning as northerly winds will be sustained around 10 kts with gusts up to 21 kts.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 121 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

Monday night and into Tuesday, a trough is forecast to slide through the Northern Plains and bring a weak front and surface low through the area. With the main part of the trough well north of the area, warmer temperatures in the 60s remain forecast for the area. We still may be able to see some 70s if it the trough moves quickly and not too far to the south. We are still watching for the possibility of some critical fire weather conditions around the Colorado border as the system allow wind gusts to creep closer to 25 mph while the warmer temperatures drops relative humidity into the teens.

Wednesday, another trough is forecast to move into the Plains, but dip lower towards the Central Plains. This is forecast to bring a more potent system through the area. While dry air is forecast to keep precipitation chances low, there is some concern for strong winds. There is a 25% chance that wind gusts could exceed 50 mph for counties around the Colorado border. For now, this looks reasonable based on ensembles as there are scenarios that help and hurt how strong the winds will get. The 500mb spreads suggest that the trough could be farther north (lowering impacts), and/or that it could move through faster and earlier in the day (increasing the chances for winds). Otherwise, temperatures should be in the 60s before the front moves through.

Thursday through Saturday, an overall zonal pattern is forecast which would favor seasonable/mild conditions. However, similar to earlier in the week, some upper troughs may be able to develop in the flow and bring more systems into the area. So while the current forecast calls for mild conditions to return, this may change once it becomes apparent on which smaller troughs can influence the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 419 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

For KGLD... Low ceilings around a few hundred feet are forecast for the first hour or two of the period. As cooler and drier continues to move in from the east, ceilings should lift above 1000ft. The fog is likely over for the first few hours, but may return later in the night, especially around 09-15Z as the moist air mass gets redirected east back towards the terminal. Winds will also change from out of the east to out of the south as a low pressure systems nears from the west. Skies should clear around 18-21Z with dry air forecast to set up over the area.

For KMCK... Direr and colder air is slowly filtering in from the northeast. This has lowered temperatures enough to inhibit the potential for fog, though some flurries will be possible through the night. As dry air continues to move in, ceilings should lift above 2000ft overnight. However, if the moisture from the west moves quick enough back to the east, ceilings could lower between 500-1500ft after 07Z. Around 18-21Z, most of the moisture should be pushes east of the terminal by an advancing surface low and allow for clearing skies. Winds should shift from out of the north/northeast tonight to out of the south during the day tomorrow.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ090>092. NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening for NEZ079>081.