textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-60%) through the start of next week. Best chances will be Saturday night.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1218 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

02Z Water vapor imagery and RAP H4 analysis continues to indicate trough deepening across the PAC NW with base of trough now digging into northern CA. Ridge continues to amplify across the central CONUS, with WSW flow aloft over Goodland CWA. At the surface, stalled frontal zone was draped across southern most zones extending to the west to developing front range low and extending to the northeast towards KHSI.

Heat and thunderstorm chances,coverage and impacts are the primary forecast concern through the weekend.

Today-Tonight...Potential for thunderstorms and more significant cloud cover and the resulting impacts on temperature fields lowers confidence somewhat in today's forecast although general pattern appears to be agreed upon by short range models. Low amplitude short wave trough noted on RAP dynamic tropopause analysis will clear the area by 12z, with isentropic forcing decreasing in response to it's departure and diurnal weakening of low level jet. While there is 1000- 1500 j/kg of MUCAPE available, related CINH values greater 250 j/kg and condensation pressure deficits 150-250 mb raise serious doubts if any meaningful convection will initiate before sunrise. Will have to monitor for any potential heat bursts this morning, but expect period to start out dry. Question will then become when and where diurnally driven storms will develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Div Q vector fields indicate synoptic scale forcing is fairly neutral with respect to ascent, so think any precipitation chances will be tied to any organized/deep convergence zones that develop in the afternoon. While frontal zone analyzed at 02Z will have lifted to the north of the area and become diffuse through morning, weak dryline bisecting CWA by the afternoon hours may be enough to trigger a few storms through the early evening hours. Confidence in storm initation is low, and don't think I can justify more than 15- 30% pops at this point. High based storms, 20-25 kts of deep layer shear and modest instability lead me to think severe threat will be limited and mainly tied to strong downdraft winds. Expect storms to be strongly tied to diurnal heating with chances ending by 6z.

Saturday-Sunday...H5 ridge will continue to amplify through the day although not seeing a corresponding jump in H85 temperatures as this occurs. Latest GEFS showing little if any change between mean values and 90th percentile...although appears to be more uncertainty on the cooler side of the distribution. Going to keep temperatures closer towards mean values/persistence at this point as there is not strong support for a big swing in temps either way. Dewpoints expected to climb across the area as next low amplitude trough approaches the NE panhandle, inducing southeasterly flow across much of the area. The increase in dewpoints with temperatures aloft changing little will result in a significantly weaker cap across the entire area. With weak forcing for ascent favoring near sfc convergence across northeastern Colorado. With a noticeably stronger signal for precipitation in operational and ensemble data, Saturday evening looks to be the best chance in the past week for seeing measurable rain, especially along KS/NE border. As has been the case under this ridge, wind shear will be limited so think severe weather threat will be limited and mainly focused on strong wind gusts.

Little change in the upper level pattern as amplified H5 ridge remains the primary synoptic influence over the CWA and likewise think persistence may be the best route forward for the forecast. Diurnal thunderstorms possible again, although signal in model data weaker and a bit further north than on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Long-term guidance is currently suggesting that the tri-state area should continue to see effects from a fairly strong longwave ridge, slowly propagating across the plains and upper-midwest Monday. This setup will keep our area in southwest flow aloft through most of the forecast period. Model guidance is keying in on an upper-level jet streak, which should begin to eject thru this ridge on Tuesday. Deamplification of said ridge is expected through the end of the four day timeframe, which should make the region more susceptible to shortwave passages. At the surface, low-pressure sets up over western Kansas through next Thursday. A slight cool down, accompanied by daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms is anticipated over the course of the week due to lessened effects of the ridge.

Ensemble guidance is hinting at daily PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) through Thursday of next week as shortwaves move through the synoptic system. There is also medium confidence of a frontal boundary setting up and moving through the county warning area (CWA) late Tuesday into Wednesday. For Monday, PoPs currently stand at 30-65% for locations north of I-70 with chances south of the interstate being much lower. A more uniform 15-35% is forecasted for the area Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday should follow suit with a bit more modest 15-30% PoPs. Dewpoints are forecasted in the mid 50s to 60s, providing ample moisture to the environment. Confidence of thunderstorms forming in the CWA is low at this point in time due to lower instability values forecasted across the region.

Unseasonably hot and breezy conditions will persist throughout the region as the ridge evolves. High temperatures in the low to upper 90s Monday transition to more upper 80s/low 90s by Thursday. Low temperatures should follow a similar pattern, going from 60s/70s to more uniform 60s across the CWA. Surface winds are forecasted to start off Monday at 15-20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. The stronger winds will occur on the more northern and western areas of the tri- state region, 15-30 mph are expected there along with gusts up to 40 mph. Winds should weaken for the remainder of the forecast period, as 5-15 mph is anticipated, with gusts up to 25 mph.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1006 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There is potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms for the area Friday, but low confidence in any affecting either terminal.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.