textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers/storms producing wind gusts generally of 40-60 mph with a max of 70 mph are possible this afternoon and evening. Blowing dust with visibility below a mile may occur with these winds.

- Additional chances for severe weather Friday through Monday.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1101 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Current observations have an upper ridge over the Plains, but it is steadily being pushed out by an upper trough in the Northern High Plains. This is allowing a low pressure system to develop over the area. With the low setting in over the western portion of the area, winds have lowered to around 5-15 mph. This should steadily spread through the rest of the area today. There is a chance still for some gusty winds around 25-35 mph for the east before noon and for the west late in the evening depending on how quick the low moves in. However, most of the stronger winds should come from storms today.

With the low in the area, some surface convergence zones are forecast to set up in the area. Aided by the upper trough and some 700-500mb moisture in the western parts of the area, showers and storms remain on track to form this afternoon and evening. These showers and storms could start as early as 12pm MT, but are more likely between 3pm-8pm MT. The coverage is still expected to be isolated to scattered with the dry air in place through the lower levels and spotty nature of the higher moisture. Overall, not much precipitation is expected with most seeing nothing to maybe a few hundredths. The bigger concern is for the possibility of storms to produce hail around 0.5-1.5 inches and wind gusts generally between 40-60 mph. The wind gusts look to be more likely in the form of microbursts due to the dry air and lack of lower level flow. The max potential with the winds still appears to be 70 mph, with most in the aforementioned 40-60 mph range. An associated concern remains the potential for blowing dust should a strong outflow develop and be able to propagate. Be alert as blowing dust with visibility below a mile would be possible. As for the hail, storms should struggle to hold together with both the dry air and slight anti- cyclonic curve in forecast hodographs. But storms that can remain isolated and/or move east into higher instability may be able to produce some large hail. Two inches seems to be the maximum should a supercell be able to get going with those east of Highway 83 having the highest chance (albeit still a low chance).

Tonight, the upper trough is forecast to continue pushing east and north with the surface low stagnating and broadening as the night goes on. With the support waining, shower and storm activity should dissipate over the night. Winds should shift to be more from the north, which would allow northern and western portions of the area to potentially cool into the 40s with the rest of the area in the 50s. Drier air should also push in.

For Friday, the upper pattern is forecast to be fairly zonal with broad low pressure across much of the Plains. This should keep the winds around 10-15 mph, limiting the fire weather concerns with relative humidity forecast to drop into the single digits and teens with the dry air. Highs are forecast to be slightly cooler in the upper 80s and 90s. As for storms, the daytime hours are currently forecast to be mostly clear with dry air in place. Going into the late afternoon, evening, and overnight hours, moisture above 700 mb is forecast to return in the upper westerly flow. This combined with maybe a shortwave and the area being in the wrap around side of the low is forecast to help fire off a few storms. Showers are more likely for those west of Highway 83 due to the forecast lack of instability. For those east of Highway 83, there may be enough low level moisture recovery for MUCAPE to reach 1500-2500 J/kg. This could allow for some large hail, though the main limiter would be effective shear around 20-30 kts which would favor pulse storms. Still should a storms sustain itself, be alert that hail could reach 2 inches or larger. The wind and tornado threat looks to be very low due to weak environmental flow and the inversion setting up.

Saturday, another upper trough is forecast to push into the Northern Rockies. This should deepen the surface low over and south of the area. This also should put the area downstream of the trough enough for some potential positive vorticity advection. These factors should combine to give the area chances for storms later in the day. During the day, winds should gradually shift to out of the east underneath mostly clear skies. Wind speeds should pick up to be around 10-20 mph with some gusts to 30 mph. This may lead to a concern for critical fire weather conditions, but increasing low level moisture from the easterly flow is forecast to keep relative humidity above the high teens.

In regards to the storms, the current forecast position of the surface low sets up some convergence zones in the afternoon near the Tri-State border area. with MUCAPE forecast to be around 1500-3000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km, we should have enough instability for storms to fire up. The main question is how much shear we will have. Due to the uncertainty with the surface low position, we could have shear closer to 25 kts in the storm environment (which would favor lower end pulse) or 45 kts of shear in the storm environment (which would allow for the potential of supercells). The other issue with the low positioning is it could move the storms initiation zones out of the area. For now, we are currently forecasting storms in the afternoon that would mainly move north of I-70 and in Eastern Colorado. All hazards are possible, with hail currently forecast to be the mostly likely threat due to the potentially high instability. Tornadoes are hindered a bit by potentially high LCLs while wind is hindered by overall weak winds through the air column (though clustering may be able to produce strong winds from their own cold pool). Storms would likely start around 2-4pm MT and end close to midnight. There is the possibility that they could last through the night, again mainly for north of I- 70.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Sunday, our region is in a southwest upper-level flow ahead of a digging trough west of the Rocky Mountains. There is also a surface low and dryline forecast in southwestern Kansas. This will set our county warning area (CWA) up for a multi-hazard day with chances for severe weather primarily north of I-70 and fire weather conditions south of I-70. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has most of our area outlooked for a Day 4 15% chance of severe weather. Severe weather is forecast to begin in the afternoon with supercells, large hail and strong winds as the main concerns based on strong southwest flow advecting in ample moisture, strong instability and embedded shortwaves passing through as the trough moves east. Blowing dust potential will also need to be monitored.

Moving on to fire weather concerns. South of the I-70 corridor, Relative Humidity (RH) values drop to the low teens in the afternoon along with winds gusts up to 40 mph possible. High temperatures are forecast in the mid 80s to upper 90s. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) south of I-70 are less than 10%. With the region outlooked for severe weather, there is concern for lightning ahead of storms as an ignition source. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are in the 30s to 80s, so if any fires start, they will likely grow and spread rapidly.

Severe weather chances continue for Monday as the eastern CWA is outlooked for a Day 5 15% chance of severe weather. Our region is forecast to be in a negatively tilted trough with a surface low on the eastern edge of our CWA. Similar concerns to Sunday of supercells with large hail and damaging winds, but there is uncertainty regarding exact timing and placement given how far out it is. PoPs are the highest for the northwest CWA ranging from 20-55%.

We could have a few hours of fire weather conditions Monday afternoon for the southern CWA. RH values are forecast in the high teens with GFDI values of 80-110+ for the most of the CWA. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph are possible. Blowing dust potential will need to be monitored due to the potential for high winds and dry conditions.

Tuesday is cooler in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s. Main highlight for Tuesday is a 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the western CWA. Wednesday and Thursday we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect pleasant temperatures with highs forecast in the 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 453 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is still a 15-20% chance that showers and storms could move over through 03Z that produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 kts. After that, winds should be variable and light until about 09Z. Winds should then stabilize from the north/northwest and reach speeds around 10-15 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.