textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm conditions will persist until a cold frontal passage Monday evening.

- Scattered storms Monday afternoon and evening will kick off a period of cooler and more moist conditions through Wednesday. Could see snow throughout most of Wednesday, especially in eastern Colorado.

- Minimum temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday nights may drop into the mid to upper 20s across portions of Eastern Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

Today, A 500 mb high will start to fall apart and temperatures will warm to around 80. Winds will largely remain north-northeasterly becoming more easterly as the day progresses as a weak surface lows moves off to the east. These winds will bring in some mild moisture advection, however only the northeastern CWA looks to really benefit in the form of slightly higher RH values. Locations along and southwest of a line from Idalia, CO to Gove, KS look to see RH values in the low and mid teens. Additionally, we could see occasional gusts of 25 kts mix to the surface, leading to briefly critical fire weather conditions in this area. There is less than a 5% chance Red Flag criteria is met as consistent critical winds are not expected.

Northwesterly flow aloft returns and a shortwave trough coming off the northern Rockies will give us a 10-15% chance of seeing scattered showers forming off the Palmer Divide and decaying as they move into the CWA. Most likely time for any precipitation would be between 22-6Z, all falling as rain. We could see some earlier showers form in eastern Colorado from Convective Temperatures being hit. Overnight lows look to cool into the 40s.

Tomorrow, the 500 mb pattern becomes notably more active. In the afternoon/evening, a Polar low near the Great Lakes will extend a trough to the southwest, linking up with another low moving east over the California coast. To the south, we'll have the remnants of the high decaying into a weak ridge. As this is happening in the upper levels, an 850 mb low will strengthen over the CWA, dragging in a late afternoon cold front. These features will cause widespread vorticity Monday evening and overnight, which is the driving force for our next decent round at precipitation.

Before the precipitation and cold front, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s, driving RH values across the area into the mid teens. Fire weather threats are still low as winds are forecast to remain under 20 kts ahead of the front. However, occasional gusts up around 25 kts may occur, leading to isolated briefly critical fire weather conditions.

The cold front is currently expected to enter the CWA from the north/northeast around 20-22Z, but has been trending faster over the past 24 hours. The cold front will bring a little bit of additional moisture into the area, which will start the northwest to southeast moving wave of precipitation. Around the same time, some high based storms may form in eastern Colorado and move east, started mainly from the 500 mb features. Instability and shear looks low-end marginal to support severe weather. Most likely threats from these storms would be 0.5-1 inch hail and 40-55 MPH winds, along with lightning striking ahead of the precipitation (fire threat). The strongest storms look to occur between 20-02Z, becoming more stratiform after this time.

Monday night, temperatures look to cool into the 30s across most of the area. The stratiform precipitation is expected to persist on and off through the night. Embedded storms are possible, but there is basically no threat of severe weather in the overnight hours. There is a 10-15% chance some snow could mix in early Tuesday morning in the northwestern CWA, but no impacts or accumulation are expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 316 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

***Synopsis***

High amplitude, positively tilted troughing in the upper levels looks to lie just to the west of the forecast area Tuesday morning. At the same time, northerly surface winds will be in place after the passage of a cold front, in addition to a broad convergence zone across Kansas associated with a slow-moving surface low in Colorado. Ensemble guidance favors this pattern to last through Wednesday evening when the troughing moves off to the east and a split flow develops across the West Coast. Consequentially, northwesterly flow is forecast to overspread the area aloft starting Thursday, lasting through the end of the period. Current guidance suggests that this pattern may persist through the end of the forecast period.

***Tuesday/Wednesday***

As troughing moves across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, and northerly surface flow remains, cooler conditions appear favored. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid-40s to mid-50s, and low-40s to low-50s respectively. Additionally, the convergence zone across Kansas looks to produce precipitation across the CWA both days. NBM 48 hour precipitation guidance suggests around a 50- 70% chance for greater than 0.25 inches of precipitation across portions of Eastern Colorado, Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas between Tuesday and Wednesday. This activity does not appear to be convective, as LREF guidance suggests a 75% chance or greater for less than 100 J/kg of CAPE (instability) to be present. Rather, this activity is favored to be driven synoptically by low-level convergence, mid-level warming, and incoming cyclonic motion aloft. As temperatures cool both nights, rain may transition into snow, most particularly in counties along the Eastern Colorado Border where below freezing temperatures may be experienced overnight. Lows are currently forecast in the upper-20s to mid-30s Tuesday, and mid- 20s to lower-30s Wednesday. There is reason to believe that Wednesday's low temperatures may be lower than the current forecast due to cool, wet, and cloudy conditions during the day, and cloud cover clearing overnight. NBM 25th percentile low temperatures across much of Eastern Colorado are in the lower-20s both days. Confidence is increasing that a Freeze Watch will be needed, at around 30-50% both days.

***Thursday-Sunday***

Ensemble guidance indicates that northwesterly flow will persist through the end of the forecast period. Several embedded shortwave systems will have the opportunity to impact the forecast area during this time. Current forecast guidance suggests that warmer conditions are favored to return, with highs in the low to mid-70s across most of the region Thursday, Friday, and Sunday, and upper-70s to lower- 80s Saturday. A couple of shortwave systems on Thursday and Friday may be associated with showers. LREF guidance suggests as high as a 40% chance for greater than 100 J/kg of CAPE across portions of Eastern Colorado both days, whereas NBM suggests around a 20% chance or less for all locations in the CWA for greater than 0.01 inches of rainfall from these showers. A stronger shortwave may produce slightly stronger, more widespread showers on Saturday, with LREF showing up to a 40% chance for more than 200 J/kg of CAPE, and up to a 20% chance from the NBM that greater than 0.1 inches of rain occurs. Still, light rain from this system seems to be the most likely scenario. Chances for showers may continue on Sunday from embedded shortwave activity.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 437 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Winds this evening will remain somewhat variable gusting up around 10-15 kts until the nocturnal inversion sets up. Once the inversion sets up, winds will weaken and go from southeasterly to westerly overnight. Around sunrise, winds will pick up again and northwesterly winds will dominate ahead of a cold front. A cold front tomorrow afternoon will bring in north-northeasterly winds that are forecast to gust around 20-35 kts. We are also expecting showers and a couple of storms to move into the region tomorrow afternoon, which may impact the airports. Additionally, Monday night, less than VFR ceilings are possible.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.