textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized critical fire weather this afternoon into the evening for Yuma county. Fire Weather Watch issued for Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties for Wednesday.

- Breezy to windy conditions are forecast early Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening. Gusts up to 50 mph may lead to some patchy blowing dust. A few rogue gusts around 60 mph can't be ruled out.

- Severe weather returns end of this week through early next week. Main days for severe weather look to be Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A surface high is pushing east out of the area with a surface trough moving in from the northwest. As the surface trough continues to advance breezy winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon. Main eyes are on Yuma county and into portions of adjacent counties after 20Z as the trough moves in. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph become more likely as we head into late afternoon and humidity falling into the low to mid teens. Confidence is around 90% in at least one hour of critical conditions and 55% in three or more hours. Due to the lower than ideal confidence when the strongest winds would start have opted to hold off on a Red Flag Warning but did give consideration due to minimal humidity recover overnight along with the wind shift with a cold front during the early morning hours Wednesday; more on that in a bit.

Winds are forecast to increase this evening a surface low deepens across the northern Plains and enhances the low level wind fields leading to breezy winds of 15-20 mph sustained through the night. With the winds continuing mixing through the night this should help keep overnight low temperatures warmer than what some guidance is suggesting with the coolest in the southwest portion of the area in the upper 50s to the low 70s across the east.

A cold front remains forecast to move into the area between 10 and 13Z which is forecast to shift winds to the north-northwest and increase them further with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts of 40-50 mph the most likely outcome. Some localized gusts of 55-65 mph can't be ruled out with the 850mb jet being around 45-50 knots but with pressure rises remaining rather meager around 5 mb over three hours diminishes that potential. Dust may also be a concern starting around 13Z as guidance suggests that some low level destabilization may start to occur which would increase the potential for some dust to start to get lofted. With the inversion remaining in place the should help keep some capping in place. NASASPORT 0-10cm soil moisture shows dry conditions across the entire area again and is further exacerbated by the recent warm and dry conditions. Any dust potential looks to be relegated to plumes near fields. Dust potential should end around 16-17Z as mixing heights increase and any remaining dust gets lofted.

The surface low across the northern Plains moves to the east through the day Wednesday weakens the flow across most of the area with the exceptions being northern portions of the area albeit weaker than further north. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-35 mph remains across southwest Nebraska as humidity is forecast to fall into the mid teens along with high temperatures forecast in the low 90s. With this and recent input from Nebraska Forest Service that fuels have dried out again have opted to issue a Fire Weather Watch for Dundy through Hitchcock counties. Confidence is 55-70% in three or more hours of critical conditions with highest confidence in Red Willow county due to being in closer proximity to the low and longer residency of the 850mb jet. A failure point to a potential Red Flag Warning is if temperatures don't warm into the 90s due to potential stronger cold air advection that what guidance suggests. Another failure mode is that some weak moisture advection is seen from the surface to 30mb AGL which if stronger than depicted could eliminate the threat. For the rest of the area humidity is forecast to be around the same but the winds are forecast to be lighter and more sporadic towards the 25 mph critical threshold so some spotty briefly critical conditions may occur but confidence is less than 20% in 3 or more hours occurring.

Wednesday evening, a second cold front is forecast to move through through the area with stronger cold air advection and higher pressure rises. Guidance however does not have much of a wind field with it so am currently not anticipating much more than a slight uptick in the wind across the area to around 15-20 mph sustained and perhaps some gusts to 35 mph. Guidance has been holding fairly steady with the speed of that front for now which has diminished the dust threat with that front. Overnight temperatures are currently forecast in the low 50s to the low 60s across the area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The weather pattern becomes more active as we end the week. Upper air analysis shows a strengthening ridge over the Central Plains through Saturday. During this time temperatures will gradually warm each day. Friday south winds will become gusty as low level winds strengthen ahead of a cold front that moves through Saturday night. The forecast currently shows winds lower on Saturday compared to Friday. However models do show the low level winds to be similar to Friday, if not stronger for the afternoon. As such, would think the winds for Saturday will end up being stronger in the forecast. Relative humidity values for Friday are currently high enough to negate fire weather concerns at this time.

Storm activity returns to the forecast area Friday night as the first of several upper level short wave troughs move through. This trough looks to be one of the weaker ones. Ensemble model probability for rainfall is on the low side, around 10% for more than .05" of rain occurring. There is also a corridor of higher dew points that may move into the forecast area ahead of the short wave trough. Deep layer shear looks to be 35-50 kts. The ingredients are coming together for severe weather to occur Friday late afternoon and evening.

Saturday and Sunday look to be more favorable days for severe weather due to a stronger upper level short wave trough moving through compared to Friday. Saturday is the more favorable day based on the stronger upper level short wave trough moving through. A dry line may form over the forecast area during the afternoon. Model ensembles have the dry line over the central part of the forecast area. Deep layer shear is similar to Friday, around 40 kts. Storms may merge into a line as they move east over the forecast area. If that happens, thunderstorm wind gusts will be a key hazard. Sunday is similar to Saturday with storms during the late afternoon and evening. For both days the eastern half of the forecast area is favored for more rainfall/storm activity. Storm activity for both days should happen primarily during the late afternoon/evening.

Monday and Tuesday the active weather pattern continues as upper level short wave troughs continue across the forecast area. As with the weekend, storm activity should primarily be during the evening. These short wave troughs do not appear to be as deep as the ones on the weekend, which suggests the intensity of the storms will be lower than the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period. Wind magnitude and direction looks to be the main story for each terminal. A gradual increase of wind is forecast through the afternoon as a surface trough nears the area. This evening winds are forecast to increase even more along with LLWS becoming a concern as well. A front is forecast to move through during the early morning hours increasing wind further and shifting to the north-northwest. High sustained winds of 20-30 knots looks most likely along with gusts of 30-40 knots, but can't rule out briefly higher gusts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

An incoming surface trough from the northwest is on track to increase winds across Yuma county and perhaps adjacent counties during the mid to late afternoon resulting in some localized critical fire weather potential. Confidence remains around 55% in 3 or more hours which is low enough to preclude a Red Flag Warning issuance. I did strongly consider it due to continued breezy winds through the night and minimal humidity recovery in the 30-35% range.

A cold front is still forecast to move through between 10 and 13Z Wednesday morning shifting winds to the north-northwest and increasing them to 20-30 mph sustained and gusts around 50 mph. Weak moisture advection is forecast to occur which is forecast to help keep RH from falling much if any. Additional elevated to briefly critical conditions are forecast south of I70 just behind the front as a corridor of drier air is forecast to develop but should be short lived. Warm temperatures are forecast to be in place area wide which will help keep RH values in the mid to upper teens. Waning wind from the late morning through the afternoon is forecast to occur for most of the area helping keep the critical fire weather concerns from being more widespread.

A Fire Weather Watch however was issued for Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties after inquiring with fuel partners about recent fuels and was informed that the greenness has been lost. This area is forecast to see a prolonged period of sustained winds around 20-25 mph and occasional gusts up to 35 mph continuing through the afternoon due to the closer proximity to a surface low across the northern Plains keeping the low level wind field in tack longer. Confidence in 3 more hours of critical conditions across these counties is around 55-70% with highest confidence being across Red Willow counties. Some weak moisture advection may help keep temperatures a touch lower than forecast and as a result keep humidity in the upper teens which is what was keeping me from going straight to a Red Flag Warning.

The Watch does run through 03Z as a second front is forecast to move through and may bring another period of drier air and wind gusts up to 25 mph into the evening hours.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NEZ079>081.