textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend late this weekend, with highs in the mid-upper 90s on Sunday and triple digits on Monday.

- Slightly higher fire danger on Sunday and Monday with relative humidity in the teens and 20s while winds gust around 20-30 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and 4-Corners (today) will amplify and extend NNE over the Rockies and adjoining portions of the Northern and Central Plains (Sat-Sat night). Meanwhile, an upper level low and associated mid-latitude cyclone over northwest Iowa this afternoon will track southeastward.. along the northeast periphery of the amplifying ridge.. into Illinois and neighboring portions of the Tennessee/Ohio Valley (Sat-Sat night).

Today-Tonight: Breezy (~25-35 mph) northerly low-level flow on the western fringe of the aforementioned mid-latitude cyclone will weaken as the cyclone progresses further downstream (toward the Mississippi River Valley) this afternoon, becoming light and variable late this evening/overnight. A cooler, drier low- level airmass characterized by 850 mb dewpoints 9-14C (compared to 16-18C yesterday) has essentially closed the door on convection in the Goodland CWA, where convective inhibition (MLCIN) exceeds instability (MLCAPE) across the majority of the area, and diurnal cumulus has been utterly suppressed. With a mean wind from the NW (330 @ 15KT), right-mover motion from the N (360 @ 20KT) and an increasingly hostile convective environment with eastern extent toward the CO-KS border, east of a line from Fort Morgan to Limon to La Junta, in particular.. convection moving with the mean wind (an eastward component) will rapidly weaken/dissipate. Meanwhile, the storms most likely to persist; transient supercells /right-movers/ deviating to the south, will parallel (remain west-of) the Goodland CWA.

Sat-Sat night: With an amplifying ridge to the west and a slow- moving, vertically stacked low to the east (over the Mississippi River Valley), modest surface high pressure.. and a relatively cool airmass.. will persist over the Tri-State Area. Expect clear skies, dry conditions and temperatures similar to, albeit slightly cooler than, today.. in the upper 80's to lower 90's.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Synoptically, not much has changed for the Long Term period. Sunday the ridge will continue to de-amplify as a trough begins to move through Canada/US border. Come Monday, we begin to transition to more zonal flow. Once again throughout the week, there looks to be some shortwaves moving through the area that may create some precipitation chances for the County Warning Area (CWA).

Overall for the long term, high temperatures are forecast to be in the high 90s for the majority of the CWA. However Wednesday we have a brief "cool" down where highs should be in the low to mid 90s. Winds for the week look to be breezy for the majority of the CWA. Starting on Monday, the CWA's precipitation chances begin to increase. As each shortwave moves through, there is around a 20-40% chance for showers Monday through Wednesday. Thursday and Friday chances begin to decrease to 10-20%.

For this period there are some localized elevated fire weather concerns for Sunday and Monday during the afternoon hours. Beginning with Sunday, wind gusts are forecast to be in the 20-30 mph range and mainly from the south. Relative humidity (RH) values look to be in the upper teens to low 20%s. The lowest RH values look to be mainly west of KS Hwy 27. Moving to GFDI, the maximum values are forecast to be in the 30-45 range mainly for the northwest portion of the CWA. These values would promote very high fire growth. With this being said, there are some concerns with whether or not all of these conditions will occur at the same time.

Monday looks very similar to Sunday with the changes of high temperatures in the low 100s for the majority of the CWA. RH values are forecast to be in the mid teens to low 20%s for the majority of the CWA. The lowest values again are for areas west of KS Hwy 27. Gusts are once again mainly from the south and in the range of 20-30 mph. GFDI values are forecast to be in the 30-59 for the majority of the CWA. One other thing to mention is Monday does have a chance of seeing thunderstorms, so dry lightning may also pose a risk wherever storms develop.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1148 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. Northerly wind gusts to 25-30 knots will abate during the early-mid afternoon, though sustained winds are expected to remain breezy (~14-18 knots) throughout the afternoon. Winds will veer to the NE and decrease to 10-12 knots around or shortly before sunset, then further weaken and become light/ variable this evening. Winds will remain light through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.