textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Tuesday's forecast has wind gusts around 25-45 mph for Eastern Colorado.

- Chance for rain continue through much of the week. Highest chances look to be around Wed/Thu.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1211 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Current observations show a low near the Four Corners region with a deeper trough moving into the Northwestern United States. At the surface, a broad low is set up northwest of the area with winds speeds around 10-15 mph. The shower and storm activity has ended and shifted north of the area as the upper trough shifts slightly north. Temperatures should reach the 50s for most of the area with some 60s for eastern portions of the area where dewpoints are more in the 50s.

Tuesday, the deeper trough to the west is forecast to absorb the low near the Four Corners region and shift south. With this trough forecast to shift more south, the surface low is forecast to deepen more in the Western United States. This has lowered how strong the pressure gradient and winds will get compared to prior forecasts. Winds now are forecast to be 15-30 mph with gusts of 25-45 mph. The strongest winds continue to favor Eastern Colorado. If speeds do not get higher than the forecast, blowing dust is no longer a concern. Otherwise, there could be a few small plumes that try and develop. Temperatures should otherwise be cooler with the trough expanding and increased cloud cover keeping temperatures in the 80s and potentially the 70s.

Wind isn't the only thing forecast for tomorrow. There is a low chance for more showers and storms with a potential weak convergence zone in the western half of the area and the potential for mid-level moisture to move in. These could start as early as 1pm and last into the evening if they form. The severe chances are very low with instability forecast to be weak and some increased moisture availability limiting the downburst potential.

Tomorrow night, any showers and storms that develop should end early in the evening/night as the daytime heating ends. Cloud cover is forecast to increase though as low level southeasterly flow is forecast to bring more moisture into the area. The increased moisture should help keep temperatures more in the 50s and 60s. One thing we will need to watch for is the potential for fog if we get enough low level moisture. The fog is forecast to favor those along and south of I-70.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

The long term synoptic setup is looking rather unsettled over the next 3-7 days. An upper level ridge will attempt to establish itself across the central CONUS by the middle of this week. However, a plume of Pacific moisture currently over the Four Corners region looks to undercut the ridge. This will keep the warm and dry conditions well to the north of the area. Currently, seasonable temperatures look to persist for the middle of the week into the weekend. The plume of Pacific moisture will usher in above normal PWATs to the region. By late Wednesday showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin developing. While still a few days out, there does look to be the chance (20-35%) for some strong to severe storms during the afternoon/evening hours. At this time the main threats would be large hail, heavy rain, and possibly an isolated tornado chance (<2%). Showers look to congeal into a larger band during the overnight Wednesday into Thursday. This would lead to greater chances for periodic light to moderate rainfall through the overnight into Thursday morning. The timing of this does differ some amongst models with some showing lesser chances for precipitation during the day Thursday due to a quicker moving system.

Friday looks to see seasonable temperatures persist with the possibility for a few isolated showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. By the weekend the aforementioned low that settled in over the Great Basin looks to finally trek out of the region. As this disturbance shifts to the north towards Canada, another push of moisture looks to arrive from the south/southwest. This would lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Models do differ slightly with the GFS showing heavier precipitation remaining farther west across portions of Colorado. The Euro keeps the heaviest precipitation over Kansas but slightly east of the CWA. There is still time for things to be shift but overall, there is increasing chances for more precipitation for the upcoming weekend into the start of next week. However, the exact timing and location should come into better focus over the next few days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. The main concern is for low level wind shear through the night, with winds around 200-300ft forecast to be around 35-40kts. Winds near the surface tomorrow should be around 15-20 kts with some gusts to 30 kts. There may be a few gusts nearing 40 kts during the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.