textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s are forecast to return Sunday and Monday.

- Increased fire danger is forecast for Sunday and Monday with relative humidity in the upper teens and wind gusts around 20-25 mph on Sunday and 20-40 mph on Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 629 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Overall made small adjustments to the forecast for Sunday and Monday. Have increased high temperatures a few degrees as has been the case over the past several weeks northwest flow has been leading to very sufficient mixing even if the mixing heights are low. That again appears to be on the table for Sunday and Monday as I have raised high temperatures closer to the 75th percentile. Due to the sufficient mixing have also brought dew points down a few degrees for counties along and west of the Kansas/Colorado state line as this has been the favored area where mixing has been the strongest in similar setups over the past few weeks. Doing this has increased the concern for localized critical fire weather conditions a little more on Sunday but the main question is the wind as the strongest winds are forecast to occur between 16 and 20Z and may not correlate for more than hour with the lowest humidity. Monday has my attention a little more for critical fire weather as the 850mb wind field is stronger with gusts up to 40 mph. Again the duration is in question currently but has the relative higher potential for fire spread conditions as current forecasted GFDI is in the Very High category and favoring eastern Colorado. Similar to the discussion today a cold front is forecast to move through the area during the day. If it moves through quicker than currently forecast then humidity would be higher than currently forecast but still leading to elevated fire weather concerns for Dundy through Greeley county and west.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1155 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Skies have been clearing from west to east through the late morning hours as the upper trough axis swings more towards the Eastern US now while the upper ridge advances towards the area from the west. For the locations that clear during the early afternoon hours, temperatures remain forecast to warm into the 40s and 50s. The rest of the area is forecast to stay more in the 20s and 30s with the lingering cloud cover.

By tonight, the cloud cover should clear across the area with a weakening pressure gradient at the surface. With the clear skies and calm winds, temperatures should cool to near dewpoint in the teens and 20s.

Sunday and Monday are forecast to be a little similar with the upper ridge influencing the area a bit more. This should develop broad low pressure over the region and give the area low level westerly/southwesterly flow. With this, the area should see warm air advection and have temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s underneath mostly sunny skies. This could cause RH to drop into the teens both days and lead to some concern for critical fire weather conditions. However, Sunday is currently forecast to have wind gusts under 25 mph due to the broad and weaker flow. Monday on the other hand may have higher RH than forecast as another trough is forecast to push through the Northern Plains and bring a cold front through during the midday. This should also allow for some stronger wind gusts with gusts around 25 to 40 mph for counties along the Colorado border and up to 20-25 mph in the east. Either way, use extra caution if burning as there will likely be some increased fire danger. Precipitation is not expected either day with the low and mid levels forecast to be a bit dry.

Low temperatures both Sunday and Monday night are forecast to be in the 20s with dewpoints lingering in the teens and 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 148 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Northerly to northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to be forming over the forecast area Tuesday morning, as a deepening, broad upper level trough moves southeastward. A shortwave ridge embedded in the northwesterly flow would favor a surface high pressure system in the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Region, which will work to provide cooling across the forecast area. High temperatures in the low to mid-50s are forecast Tuesday afternoon. A modest 500-mb jet streak of about 60-70 kts is also forecast to form over the Rocky Mountains by the late afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. Rising motion in association with this jet streak could produce some light snowfall for portions of the CWA Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Snowfall coverage is currently uncertain, but counties along the KS-CO border have the highest chance of seeing snow from this event. Accumulations around half an inch are possible overnight, with lows in the low to mid-20s.

The upper level northerly to northwesterly flow is forecast to be fully in place by Wednesday morning. Several embedded shortwaves are possible through the remainder of the week with this pattern, which could allow for brief periods of above and below average temperatures across the forecast area. Cooling is looking to continue into the afternoon hours Wednesday, with highs currently forecasted in the upper-40s to low-50s. Winds across portions of East Colorado could reach between 25 and 30 mph Wednesday afternoon. RH values in the upper-20s do not implicate fire weather as a hazard, but uncontrolled fires could spread more rapidly than normal in these conditions.

The first embedded shortwave trough in the upper level flow looks to begin impacting the forecast area sometime Wednesday evening or overnight, as an attendant surface low pressure moves approximately southeast across South-Central Canada and into the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, surface winds across the CWA would be allowed to shift approximately west-southwesterly. These downsloping winds have the potential to increase our temperatures into the low to mid-60s by Thursday afternoon. The consequence of these winds will be the chance of fire weather for portions of Eastern Colorado. Drier air from off the Rockies is currently forecast to allow RH values in the upper-teens to low-20s. With some portions of Eastern Colorado forecasted to reach 25 mph wind gusts, there is the potential for locally critical fire weather if RH values can drop a few more points. This could happen if the westerly surface winds are allowed to persist through the afternoon. There is some uncertainty in how quickly the surface low to our north will move. Solutions that have the low entering the Great Lakes Region by Thursday morning show surface winds becoming northerly across our area around that time, whereas later solutions could keep our winds westerly until Friday morning, which could lower our RH values below the current forecast. Ensemble model guidance favors a solution that is somewhere in the middle of these two progressions, but closer to the faster progression. Confidence in a faster progression is about 70%, but if confidence in a slower solution can increase, fire weather could become more of a concern, and a Red Flag Warning may be needed.

As the shortwave trough continues to move through the Midwest, a surface high pressure system could be allowed to enter the United States from Canada and promote northerly winds through Friday morning. High temperatures are currently forecast in the low-60s across the CWA Friday, but cooling from the winds could lower these highs into the mid to upper-50s.

From here, model guidance diverges more significantly, though northwesterly flow is still broadly established over the forecast area. Embedded shortwaves are still a continued possibility as this pattern continues to exist. Additionally, a split flow is forecast to be in place over the Western United States for the remainder of the forecast period. These features could lead to continued brief periods of above and below average temperatures across the CWA, in addition to the possibility of a winter system toward the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 953 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions remain forecast for each terminal. The GLD VAD wind profiler indicates LLWS is ongoing at the terminal. 03Z RAP forecast soundings also suggest that this will continue through the morning hours before the nocturnal inversion breaks around 15-16Z. A brief period of breezy winds is forecast with sustained winds around 12-15 knots strongest at GLD, this will then end as winds turn to the northwest during the early afternoon hours Sunday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.