textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- One more hot day on Monday with lower 100s, then temperatures cool Tuesday and Wednesday into the 80s.

- Storm chances return Monday afternoon and evening, with additional storms chances Tuesday night through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Upper ridge will continue to nose into the area from the southwest through Monday. A series of disturbances moving across the northern Rockies and Plains will force the ridge to retreat into southern California through midweek. This will open the door to disturbances rotating around the ridge and daily precipitation chances starting Monday afternoon.

For Monday, a hot and deeply mixed environment, temperatures in the lower 100s, will promote DCAPE values up to 2500 j/kg by the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop along a prefrontal trough in northeast Colorado after 21z, then slowly move east into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska in the early evening, gradually weakening and finally dissipating by 06z. Initial storms in Colorado and adjacent counties in Kansas and Nebraska will pose a limited threat of wind gusts over 60 mph and localized blowing dust through the early evening. The main cold front slowly moves through the area Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Clouds will be increasing in the post frontal environment along with a few isolated light rain showers through Tuesday afternoon. Can't completely rule out a thunderstorm, but better instability will be ahead of the front and CIN will be high behind it. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the 80s. Scenario for Tuesday night somewhat more complicated. Storms that develop along the Front Range of southern Colorado and along the front will be moving into southwest Kansas during the evening. These will be surface based and possibly clip areas along and south of Highway 96 through the evening hours. There is a low risk of damaging wind gusts with those storms. There is also a strengthening southwesterly low level jet, peaking overnight at up to 50 kts, over the shallow, cooler upslope air mass at the surface. The accompanying isentropic lift may result in a few elevated storms overnight, mainly north of Interstate 70. MUCAPE is fairly limited at 500-1000 j/kg, but may see some small hail with stronger updrafts overnight. That activity will get shunted eastward through Wednesday morning as the low level jet weakens after 12z.

After morning showers and storms, will see a break in the precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon. Clouds will try to clear south to north with highs mainly in the 80s, but may only see 70s in the Kansas/Nebraska border area where clouds linger the longest. Old frontal boundary will be lingering in southeast Colorado, and NAM wants to develop convection there in the afternoon as another disturbance moves through in the zonal flow aloft. If storms do develop, they would move east into areas south of Interstate 70 Wednesday night. Although not as strong as the previous night, there is a southwesterly low level jet present which could maintain convection due to associated isentropic lift. GFS does show MUCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg through the overnight, so a few elevated storms will be possible along with a risk of small hail.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 237 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Synoptically, for the long term, not much has changed. The ridge off the west coast should begin to strengthen and move slowly to the east. Guidance suggests that by Friday, the ridge begins to stall and remain nearly stationary over the western US for the rest of the weekend. During this period, our upper level flow will start off as zonal and begin to transition to come from the north-northwest as the ridge moves.

Overall, it looks to be hot and dry Thursday through Sunday. Starting Thursday, temperatures begin to warm up to the high 80s to low 90s. Thursday has the best precipitation chances, around 10-20%, as a shortwave moves through the region. Friday though Sunday, high temperatures are forecast to be in high 90s to low 100s. Saturday and Sunday have the greatest chance of reaching triple digits for the majority of the CWA. For Saturday and Sunday afternoon, relative humidity values are forecast to be in mid-teens for areas west of KS Hwy 27. Wind Gusts are forecast to be around or less than 25 mph. GFDI values are in the range of 20-40 which would promote high to very high fire growth. While the winds do not met fire weather criteria, and this is around a week out, it is something to keep and eye on given the hot temperatures and the drier fuels in the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1111 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with breezy south winds and mostly clear skies.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.