textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue today.

- An upcoming storm system may bring light accumulating snow, breezy north winds and blowing snow to portions of the area Thursday evening through Friday evening. Areas along and south of I-70 appear to be most at-risk.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 330 AM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

Today: Expect conditions similar to yesterday (mostly sunny, above average temperatures), albeit with an ill-defined low level (surface to 850 mb) pattern and light/variable winds.

Tonight-Thursday: Cooler on Thu, with highs in the 40's. A closed low offshore of Baja, CA (at 07Z this morning) will deamplify into an open wave as it lifts northeastward across northern Mexico (this afternoon), the Desert Southwest (this evening) and southern Rockies (tonight). An associated lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO and southwest KS (roughly from Lamar CO east to Garden City KS) overnight, as the upper wave approaches from the southwest. Guidance suggests that precipitation will develop on the E and NE periphery of the surface low (mainly along/east of Hwy 83) shortly before sunrise (10-12Z).. that the majority of precipitation (and greatest amounts) will occur between ~12-20Z in far eastern portions of the area (Hwy 283), in assoc/w strengthening low-level frontogenesis in vicinity of a SW-to-NE oriented baroclinic zone extending northeastward (roughly) from Johnson/KJHN to Hill City/KHLC.. and that precipitation will exit the NWS Goodland county warning area during the early-mid afternoon (~19-21Z). While northerly low-level flow.. and southward advection of a drier airmass from the north (in Nebraska).. may afford some degree of evaporative cooling, allowing surface temperatures to locally fall into the upper 30's in the presence of moderate/ persistent precipitation during the late morning, forecast soundings via the GFS and HRRR indicate that thermal profiles will be well above-freezing (esp. in the lowest 1-3 KFT), strongly suggesting that rain will be the dominant precipitation type. Guidance does suggest that an entirely separate, SSW-to- NNE oriented band of light precipitation could potentially develop further to the north and west (and at higher elevations) over north-central or northeast CO, where thermal profiles are more amenable to snow, though.. poor model-to-model and run-to- run continuity with regard to whether or not (and where) this might occur (as far west as the I-76 corridor, as far east as Yuma County) and precipitation amounts (trace to ~0.10", if any) indicates that predictability is low enough to preclude more than a brief mention.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 115 AM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

As initial shortwave moves out, the second one will quickly follow Thursday night. Light snow will develop with amounts Thursday night generally less than one inch, perhaps approaching one inch in western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado with Palmer Divide enhancement. The upper low will track across the Texas panhandle Friday morning and into southeast Kansas by Friday afternoon. Light snow will continue across the area, but with that track of the upper low the more impactful snow amounts are likely to stay south of the area. Generally speaking, expecting 1-2" amounts along and south of a Flagler, Colorado, to Sharon Springs and Scott City, Kansas, line by Friday afternoon, with the remainder of the area seeing less than one inch. Some blowing and drifting will be possible in the higher snow areas, particularly in Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties where gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible through the day. Elsewhere, gusts will be in the 20-30 mph range with only patchy blowing snow where it does accumulate. Any lingering light snow will be quickly ending Friday evening with diminishing winds. Highs will be in the 30s and lows in the teens.

Saturday will be breezy to windy, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range in the afternoon. Still cannot rule out a few flurries with a vorticity lobe rotating around the upper low to the east, but not expecting it to be impactful. High temperatures will be in the lower 40s and lows Saturday night in the teens.

For Sunday through Tuesday, will return to a familiar pattern: northwest flow over the plains downstream from a strengthening ridge over the western CONUS. Mild and dry conditions will result, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 340 AM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

VFR conditions and light/variable winds are expected to prevail through the majority of the 12Z TAF period at both terminals. Winds are expected to shift to the NNE and increase to ~10-15 knots near the end of the TAF period (06-12Z Thu), as the MSLP gradient reorients and tightens in response to a developing lee cyclone over southeast CO and southwest KS. Clear skies will give way to increasing upper level cloud cover this evening, with ceilings ~15,000 to 18,000 ft AGL descending to ~8,000 to 10,000 ft AGL by sunrise Thursday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 450 AM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

On Tuesday January 06, the high temperature at Hill City was 65 degrees. This breaks the previous record (for the date) of 64 degrees, last set in 2006.

========================================== Location New Record Prior Record ========================================== Hill City.......65 in 2026 (64 in 2006)

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.