textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions and light blowing dust possible Sunday.

- Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the end of the Christmas week.

- Potential for critical fire weather conditions Monday and Wednesday. Near record to record highs also possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 129 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

Early this morning, a high pressure system coming out of the Northern Rockies will push a cold front into the CWA. The front looks to arrive on the northern border around 10-11Z and move south through the CWA over the following 4-5 hours. We can expect a fairly quick wind shift to be coming from the north and some gusts around 20-25 kts. There is a 20% chance a few 30 kts gusts could mix down, left over from the 850 mb LLJ ahead of the front.

During the day, that 850 mb high will move over the CWA, leading to CAA and weaker winds as the day progresses. This looks to keep highs capped in the mid 40s in the northern CWA and around 50 in the southern CWA. Winds throughout the day will gradually become southerly, too. At the 500 mb level, a broad, weak trough axis looks to move over the northern edge of the CWA around 18-00Z this afternoon. There is a 10-15% chance this would lead to some very light rain or snow in far northwestern Yuma county.

Tonight, the high will move off to the southeast and start some southerly flow into the area. Winds will be fairly weak, and much like previous nights, a brief period of calm winds will cool the temperatures very quickly. Temperatures are forecast to cool into low to mid 20s overnight, but overall, not a noteworthy night.

Tomorrow, a mostly stationary low will form along the Front Range, and create a moderately tight boundary gradient over the High Plains with the low to the southeast. This will lead to a southerly 850 mb jet around 30-45 kts, the exact strength of the LLJ is disagreed upon by various guidance. We are expecting these winds to mix down to the surface, leading to gusts likely ranging from 25-35 kts, but gusts up to 45 kts cannot be ruled out.

We are looking at a pretty low level inversion remaining in place too, likely around 1-2 km AGL, which will prevent deep mixing. However, 0-0.5 km lapse rates will be pretty steep, ranging from 8- 10 C/km as temperatures warm into the low to mid 50s. These steep lapse rates, with an inversion, and gusts ranging from 25-35 kts has a 50-60% chance of creating blowing dust. This blowing dust will mainly impact air quality as visibilities should remain above 3 miles. If the 40-45 kts gusts occur, more dense plumes of blowing dust will occur, and localized brownout conditions would be possible. The midday will be at the most risk for blowing dust. On the plus side, RH values Sunday will remain above 30%, minimizing the fire weather risk.

Sunday night, the low will move east and send a cold front through the CWA between 3-12Z. Besides a wind shift and some cooler air following it, this front is not too impressive. Lows look to cool to around 30.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 119 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

Starting the extended period Monday, zone flow with some subtle ridging is forecast to develop which will bring well above normal temperatures to the area. Near record to record high temperatures are continue to look likely for portions of the area. With the warm temperatures in place humidity values are also forecast to fall in the mid/upper teens to low 20s. The 850mb wind field according the GFS and ECMWF has increased a little bit from 24 hours ago which may yield some low end critical fire weather concerns for eastern Colorado. The probabilities for wind gusts greater than 25 mph is around 20-25% at this time mainly favoring Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties. Upper level cirrus does look to be in play again which may mitigate if we can warm up more than currently forecast but with winds from the ~240 degrees supporting a climatological "furnace" effect would not rule out some slightly higher temperatures than the mid 60s to mid 70s currently forecast. Locally critical fire weather conditions may become possible across Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties for an hour or two from the late morning into the early afternoon Monday. For more information on the fire weather potential see the fire discussion below.

Tuesday, a weak cold front is forecast to move into the area during the morning hours. Cloud cover is also forecast to increase leading to cooler, albeit still above normal temperatures in the 50s to 60s as 850mb temperatures of 8-10C remain across the area. I did increase winds a little bit as the GFS and ECMWF do have some slightly stronger 850mb winds present and there should still continue to be some lingering cold air advection helping some mixing despite the cloud cover so could see some gusts of 20-30 mph through the day.

Troughing across the western CONUS and a high pressure system across the southern CONUS sets the stage for a warm day for the area from a pattern recognition standpoint for Wednesday. Near record to record highs are again possible. Would not be surprised to see winds increase some from the current forecast as the 850mb jet does look to increase some especially south of Interstate 70. Am opting to hold off on increasing the winds in the forecast at this time due to differences on how north the high pressure sets up which would impact the strength of the wind field from the trough. If the wind field is further south such as what the 00Z GFS shows then wind gusts of 30-35 mph would be possible. If this were to occur then critical fire weather conditions would be become likely for at least counties along and south of Highway 40 as humidity is currently forecast to fall into the low to upper teens.

For Christmas Day, guidance does show a developing surface low to the northeast of the forecast area which may lead to a period of breezy conditions as the the 850mb jet is forecast to increase but currently is a little difficult to say how strong the winds may be as guidance has trended more towards a broad low which would lower the overall wind potential due to lesser of a pressure gradient. Overall not anticipating any hazards on Christmas Day but mild temperatures are on the table with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Friday and into the weekend, a cold front is forecast to move through the area from a fast moving clipper system across the northern Plains. Guidance is all over the place on the timing of this front so overall confidence is very low on how this could affect temperatures Friday and into the weekend. A slower front would lead to another mild day for Friday but a slower front would lead to more seasonable conditions. There is also the potential for a system from the western CONUS moving into the area but spaghetti models have no consistency at all with the track and intensity of of the system. There is the potential for more seasonable temperatures and perhaps light precipitation next weekend with this but is still something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 342 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. KMCK is starting off with the strong winds following the cold front. These winds will be weakening, but we could see some gusts around 30 kts between 12-1230Z. By 1430Z, winds will be variable as a surface high moves over the area.

The cold front is just northeast of KGLD as of writing this, and by 12Z gusty winds following the front will be occurring. It's likely gusts will peak around 30 kts for KGLD, but a gust or two up to 35 kts is possible between 12-14Z. Similar to KMCK, winds will become lighter and then variable as the surface high will be near the airport.

Sunday midday, expect strong wind gusts of 25-35 kts at both KGLD and KMCK. Some light blowing dust is possible, too.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

Some critical fire weather conditions may develop on Monday across eastern Colorado as near record to record highs continue resulting in low humidity values in the teens. The biggest question will be the strength of the winds however. A subtle increase to around 20-25 knots in the 850mb jet across Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties is seen which is stronger than what was seen 24 hours ago. This is where mixing heights are highest at around 1500-2000 feet versus less than 1000 feet further east. Using 00Z GFS soundings which typically handles mixing the best the potential is there for wind gusts up to 30 mph but confidence is only around 10% in that strong of winds but around 20% for 25 mph. But we are in the time of the year closest to the Winter solstice where getting numerous hours of strong mixing is very difficult due to shorter duration of the days. With this being said confidence in one hour of critical conditions, at least localized, is around 20-30% but getting 3 or more hours for Red Flag conditions is only around 10% at this time due to concerns of how long conditions can overlap for. Overall concern for fire danger is currently moderate to high as looking at fire weather parameters according to counties on the Colorado/Kansas line according to the Kansas mesonet shows 11% 10 hour fuel moisture and an ERC around 32 which falls around the 50th percentile. There is a about a 60% chance of conditions in the 75th percentile of the HDWI as well across Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties but only around 20- 30% chance for the 90th percentile which further increases confidence in the current forecast.

Wednesday, is currently the day that is being watched the closest. RH is already forecast in the low to mid teens due to another day of near record to record highs. From a pattern recognition standpoint with developing troughing out west temperatures could very well over perform with southwesterly winds in place. The area of concern is mainly across Kit Carson, Sherman, Wallace, Cheyenne (CO) and Greeley counties. Guidance has trended a little stronger with the low level wind field from what was seen 24 hours ago. Probabilities are a little higher (around 40%) in wind gusts exceeding 30 mph. The amplitude of high pressure across the southern CONUS appears to be what will dictate the strength of the winds. If the high pressure pushes further north the winds will be weaker. Currently confidence in one hour of critical conditions is around 30-40% but for three or more hours around 20-25% at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1245 AM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

Record high temperatures are again in jeopardy Monday the 22nd Goodland: Record high 73 in 2024.... current forecast 73.

McCook: Record high 73 in 2024.... current forecast 65.

Hill City: Record high 69 in 2019... current forecast 65.

Burlington: Record high 71 in 2019.... current forecast 73.

Record high temperatures also possible Wednesday the 24th Goodland: Record high 77 in 1955.... current forecast 73.

McCook: Record high 74 in 1964.... current forecast 66.

Hill City: Record high 67 in 2021... current forecast 69.

Burlington: Record high 79 in 1955.... current forecast 72.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.