textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs are forecast to struggle to get above freezing today along with wind chills in the mid teens as breezy to gusty winds continue.

- Wind chill readings as low as zero to 10 below zero are expected Sunday night and Monday morning.

- Warming trend will expected Monday through Thursday, remaining warm into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1217 AM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

A surface low moves across north Central Kansas that caused light showers across the northeast portion of the forecast area this evening that guidance was depicting 24 hours ago. The wind shift with the front has already occurred across the area but the stronger winds have been a little underwhelming this far currently around 30 knots as the main cold air advection remains to the northeast of the area. The cold air advection is forecast to begin moving into the area through the early morning hours which will increase mixing which is when the potential for wind gusts of 45-55 mph is forecast to occur especially across eastern portions of the area where the wind field is a little stronger.

Light snow continues to remain forecast for nearly the entire area with amounts less than one inch forecast. Most of it will melt on contact as the current soil temperatures are in the mid 40s. Most guidance still has a period from 09-15Z where low level saturation greatly increases, which appears to be when the stronger cold air advection occurs which will help lower temperatures closer to the dew point. This is when the peak time for snowfall will occur. There is a 30-40% chance that much drier air will overrun the saturation to quickly which will eliminate light snow leading to mainly flurries for the area. Any snow that falls will lead to blowing snow with wind gusts of 35-45 mph to be occurring leading to localized near blizzard conditions, which obviously will pose a hazard for any travel. I did contemplate a Winter Weather Advisory mainly for the visibilities due to blowing snow concerns and the additional factor of post holiday travel but with the newly added in layer of the drier air mitigating the snowfall am opting to hold off but will be watching observations and webcams closely.

Cold air advection will continue through the day with 850mb temperatures remaining around -7 to -10C. I did increase highs for today a little higher than what I was trending towards previous shifts as rapid clearing is forecast to occur and think more sunshine will be likely by early to mid afternoon. High temperatures for the day continue to remain forecast around or just below freezing. The breezy to gusty winds will continue through the day with gusts of 35-45 mph before gradually declining after sunset. Due to the consistent winds through the day wind chills are forecast to struggle to get out of the teens. Tonight a surface high is forecast to move in from the northwest which will gradually decrease winds to around 10 mph overnight especially for northwestern portions of the forecast area. As much a drier air mass with dew points in the low single digits to negative single digits moves in have concerns for perhaps the coldest air temperatures for the area to occur into Monday morning. Have brought temperatures down closer to the 10th percentile of the forecast envelope as clear skies will be present along with the weakening winds. Low temperatures in the mid single digits are forecast across western portions of Yuma and Kit Carson counties which along with around a 10 mph wind would yield wind chills approaching -10. Temperature the further east you go are forecast to be a little "warmer" still in the upper single digits to mid teens as the winds are forecast to be around 10-15 mph but still yielding wind chills below zero.

Monday, northwesterly flow is forecast to continue with closer to normal for late December temperatures across western portions of the area in the low 40s for highs. Further to the east, effects of the high pressure and colder air from the cold front lingers for another day with high temperatures in the low to mid 30s forecast. Very dry air will be in place as well with below zero dew points rising into the low single digits through the day. If you are sensitive to very dry air take proper precautions and be aware if doing anything that involves static or a "shocking discovery" may be found. Winds are forecast to turn back towards the southwest Monday night into Tuesday morning as a surface trough moves through leading to low temperatures closer to normal in the teens area wide.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1158 PM MST Sat Dec 27 2025

Tuesday into Wednesday night, northwesterly flow aloft will dominate allowing for warming conditions at the surface. GFS, ECMWF, and CMC- NH are all showing a trough coming over the Rockies Thursday. Currently, they're all showing the associated 850 mb low of this trough moving over the TX/OK panhandle area. This could produce a southerly LLJ of 30 kts into the CWA Thursday afternoon/evening. If this feature does form, temperatures could rise another 5-8 degrees from the current forecast. Precipitation does not look likely throughout the long-term.

Speaking of temperatures, highs Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s, but by Thursday, highs near 60 are expected for most of the area. The northeastern CWA may remain 5-10 degrees cooler as the upper and mid level jet will be just to the NW of the CWA, allowing northwesterly wind to dominate near the surface. Temperatures through Saturday remain stable, but Sunday could see 10 degree cooler temperatures in the wake of another low. Lows throughout the long-term look to bounce around in the 20s.

Throughout the long-term, there is some concern of elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions. RH values are forecast to be in the upper teens to low 20s with wind gusts up near 20 kts, mainly in eastern Colorado. If the LLJ can form in the afternoon Thursday, as discussed earlier, this would likely lead to at least briefly critical fire weather conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1016 AM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Gusty north winds will gradually diminish through the afternoon and evening hours.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.