textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory issued for portions of the area through mid morning Thursday.

- Showers and storms through the early morning hours along and south of Highway 40. Conditional threat for some storms across far western Kit Carson and Yuma county and northern Dundy late this afternoon.

- Warming back into 100s over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 930 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Widespread dense fog has lifted across the area, allowing the Dense Fog Advisory to be canceled a little early. Isolated patches of dense fog are possible across the central CWA, but will lift over the next hour.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 104 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Northwest mid level flow continues across the area with an embedded subtle shortwave seen within the flow. This shortwave along with a developing 700mb jet is forecast to lead to some shower and storms development mainly south of Interstate 70 overnight. The environment is forecast to be a bit more supportive of strong storms than last night. Lapse rates are forecast to be higher around 6.5-7.0 c/km, MUCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg and wind shear of 40-50 knots which could support a conditional large hail threat. Similar to last night do have some concerns that the bulk of the storms will set up just south of the area and the residency time in the CWA will not be long enough for any impactful weather to occur from these storms.

Moisture advection is also forecast to return to the area overnight as well. This along with light winds and easterly flow does support a fog threat. The potential for dense fog does appear to be higher than last night as well along with the potential for more widespread coverage as well. Surface to 1km mixing ratio difference is higher than last night which does give me confidence in the dense fog potential. REFS and HREF probabilities also further supports this with 50-70% chance of visibilities less than one half mile as well. Do have some concern about the developing mid to upper level clouds across portions of the area affecting the coverage and duration of dense fog. However with this being a classic fog setup, such high probabilities and upstream observations already showing fog have opted to go ahead and issue a Dense Fog Advisory.

Into Thursday, fog is forecast to continue to linger through mid morning but in spotty locales could linger until the early afternoon. High pressure across the southwestern CONUS is forecast to increase in coverage as warm but closer to normal for early August temperatures return to the area with highs in the low to mid 90s. A surface trough is forecast to develop and move into the area during the afternoon increasing winds some to around 10-15 mph sustained. Some gusts up to 25 mph could be possible as well during the afternoon as mixing deepens. Continuing to monitor a subtle shortwave within our northwest flow during the afternoon hours across the Nebraska Panhandle. There still remains a low confidence scenario as seen in HREF and REFS paintball reflectivities in a storm or two attempting to make it into northern portions of Yuma and Dundy counties after 00z. Confidence in this is around 10-15% due to no other obvious signal for anything to keep the convection going as we lose diurnal heating. Some guidance as well also does show some convection across western Yuma and Kit Carson counties along a dryline and/or surface convergence boundary, confidence in this is low given the otherwise nebulous forcing but theoretically could verify given the surface trough in the area. If storms are able to form and/or move into the area supercells would be on the table with large to very large hail the main concern due to very high amounts of CAPE, steep lapse rates, and 35-40 0-6 bulk shear. If the Colorado storms could form a landspout or two could be possible with storms assuming they could remain attached to the boundary.

Thursday night, ahead of the trough where winds can remain lighter am starting to see another potential for dense fog along and east of Highway 25. This will be dependent on the speed of the trough as if winds can remain higher than any fog would remain patchy or not happen at all. Due to this am opting to leave out for the forecast for now but will be something to keep an eye on. Did raise overnight lows a few degrees into the 60s due to higher dew points forecast to be in place across the area.

Friday, the high pressure continues to expand across the area as temperatures continue to rise into the upper 90s. Moisture in the mixing layer is forecast to continue to linger mainly along and north of Interstate 70; some slightly lower dew points could mix down during the afternoon hours across southern portions of the area and far western parts of eastern Colorado with winds around 10-15 mph currently forecast. Another convergence zone is forecast to set up across the Palmer Divide which could be the source for some afternoon showers and storms with the potential for some new development due to outflows from decaying storms.

Saturday, the high pressure continues to amplify into a 597 dam high and is supportive of high temperatures in the low 100s. Have some concerns for lower than currently forecasted dew points to mix down which would lower humidity values further into the mid teens across portions of the area. A surface low is forecast to develop across northeast Colorado leading to a zone of light and variable winds; but breezy winds of 15-20 mph gusting 20-30 mph may be able to occur on the southern part of the low, which is currently favoring south of Interstate 70. Should these lower dew points mix down and winds increase then elevated to briefly critical fire weather concerns could occur. A few storms may be able to form in the afternoon due to the low across eastern Colorado and along a theta e boundary associated with a shortwave around 500mb along and north of Highway 36. Severe weather could again be possible with wind shear around 30- 35 knots, and very steep lapse rates in place with the northern most zone. Any storms that form within that regime would have slow storm motions as well with right mover motion nearly stationary. Associated with the low the environment is bit more marginal but again very slow storm motions would be in place. A developing 700mb jet during the evening would support the potential for some continuity of the two areas perhaps turning into a southeastward moving cluster. With this still being 3-4 days out want to hold off on increasing pops due to concerns of the high pressure suppressing development and if the features mentioned above shift around.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 213 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Beginning Sunday, the Tri-State area is forecast to be under a mostly zonal upper-level flow with a ridge building west of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast to remain unseasonably warm for the county warning area (CWA) through Tuesday with highs in the 90s to 100s. A weak cold front moving through Tuesday night will bring modest cooling, but high temperatures are still forecast in the 90s for Wednesday.

Starting Monday evening through at least Wednesday evening, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight due to embedded shortwave passages. Currently, Wednesday is looking like our best chance with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) from 30-50% for the CWA.

Despite the unseasonably warm temperatures, fire weather concerns are minimal for the forecast period. Relative humidity (RH) values for the western CWA are forecast in the low teens to 20s for Sunday and Monday. Peak wind gusts are forecast to be around 25 mph, but highest wind gusts do not coincide with lowest RH values of the day. Beginning Monday afternoon, winds will primarily be from the east advecting more moisture into the Tri-State area allowing minimum RH values to gradually recover into the 20s to 30s after Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 423 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Stratus and fog continues across the area. Dense fog hasn't been quite as consistent so far as originally thought, as some weak waves from convection south of the area appear to be moving through disrupting it. Irregardless LIFR ceilings are there for each terminal. Did go the more consistent route of dense fog for the 12Z TAFS as the convection moves away from the area as I feel this should help the fog remain at 3/4SM or less. Visibilities should begin to improve around 14Z or so but LIFR to IFR ceilings remain through mid to late morning. Smoke from fires across the west coast looks to lead to a high ceiling through the afternoon. Am watching another potential for stratus and fog towards the end of the period for MCK, confidence isn't quite there to include in the TAF at this time.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.