textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect relatively drier conditions and a warming trend through the weekend.

- Currently a low chance of afternoon strong to potentially severe storms Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 119 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Low pressure over the northern Plains has pushed a cold front through the area leading to stable air across the area. Some breezy winds sustained around 20 mph are currently occurring as pressure rises from the front still remains. As the pressure rises stabilizes then the winds are forecast to wane to around 10-15 mph sustained this afternoon. The sun is forecast to return for most if not all of the area before clouds return this evening as a stout 500mb shortwave moves across the area. Some showers are forecast to develop this evening and overnight with the wave and associated upper level support from a 250mb jet, however 15Z RAP cross sections do show drier air at the surface which may mitigate it to be virga or sprinkles. Will cap the rainfall forecast around 24% for this forecast package due to the concern of the drier air. If that signal starts to wane then some increase in rainfall chances may be warranted.

Synoptic troughing is forecast to be across the area Saturday shunting out some high pressure this will also allow for some warmer temperatures in the 70s to return. Focus then turns to another shortwave and southeasterly 850mb upslope winds on the backside of the high pressure moving out of Colorado which may lead to the formation of some showers and storms favoring northwestern portions of the area and potentially getting down to around the Burlington/Goodland vicinity. Should these storms form there is a 5- 10% chance of them turning severe with large hail up to golf ball size being the primary threat. 15Z RAP suggests a boundary being located across northwestern Kit Carson county along with very steep 0-1km lapse rates and 0-3km CAPE of 150-300 j/kg and some weak surface convergence along the boundary may support a very low threat for a landspout due to strong streamwise surface vorticity being in place. Any storms are forecast to develop around 20Z and persist through sunset when diurnal heating comes to an end.

Sunday, weak ridging along with a weak high pressure system is forecast to be across the SW CONUS with a low developing near the Rockies and a subtle shortwave along with a dry line moves across the area on the lee side of the high. A line of storms or widely scattered storms along the leading edge of the trough may develop during the afternoon hours. Current guidance suggests that strong to severe storms may be a possibility with this with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern. There is the potential that this could surge further to the east however. Warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are forecast, so if any outdoor plans for the holiday weekend be aware that it will be warmer. Heat indices are however forecast to remain near the the air temperature however. Mixing dew points on the NAM do suggest that drier air may occur as humidity values may fall into the low teens across Yuma and Kit Carson counties but an overall lack of wind currently eliminates a fire weather concern at this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

***Synopsis***

Upper-level ridging looks to be overhead Monday morning, as troughing begins to dig into the Western United States. This pattern is favored to last through the long term period, establishing a broad surface low to the west of the forecast region. Southerly flow looks to be in place at least until Wednesday morning when a strong high sets up north of the Great Lakes. Surface winds look to primarily be out of the east Wednesday through the end of the period, as the surface low to the west and the surface high to the northeast battle for dominance.

***Monday/Tuesday***

Warm, wet conditions look to prevail Monday and Tuesday with southerly surface flow in place. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid 80s to lower 90s Monday, and upper 70s to upper 80s on Tuesday. Forecast guidance indicates a chance for showers to occur across the forecast region both days. LREF guidance suggests a mean of about 50-60 degree dew points across the forecast area, with mean surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) in the 1000-2000 J/kg range on Monday. 90th percentile CAPE values are upward of 4000 J/kg Monday, and around 2500 J/kg Tuesday. Convective activity is certainly in play both days, though the severe potential is forecast to remain low due to weak upper- level winds. Even LREF 90th percentile winds at 500-mb are 30-35 kts at best, which would indicate a low-shear environment. Still, considering the large amounts of instability that could be achieved in this environment, storms may briefly become severe. Even so, the NBM suggests the entire county warning area (CWA) has about a 25% chance or less to experience greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation either Monday or Tuesday. Based on this assessment, most activity is favored to limit to weak, localized thunderstorms, though some storms may produce severe hail and winds early in their life cycle. Confidence in a severe event either day is around 5%.

***Wednesday-Friday***

Conditions may cool slightly Wednesday through Friday as the surface high pressure to the northeast begins to impact the region. High temperatures all three days are forecast in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Wet conditions look to continue as well. LREF guidance indicates instability is favored to remain, as the surface high is not expected to erode surface dew points. There may be a convergence zone across Kansas as southerly flow to the south meets easterly flow in the area, which may improve the chances for precipitation. NBM 72 hr precipitation guidance suggests over a 50% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation from activity Wednesday through Friday combined. Considering that instability is present in addition to a potential convergence zone across Kansas, activity may be mixed between localized showers or thunderstorms, and areas of a bit more widespread precipitation. One additional note to keep an eye on is that the GFS and EC are consistent with precipitable water values at or greater than 0.9 inches across the forecast region Wednesday through Friday, in addition to an environment that has weak vertical wind shear. If this is the case, storms may be slow- moving and capable of producing flooding.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 348 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions continue to remain forecast for this TAF period. Continuing to watch the potential for some showers to impact GLD as early as 03Z and through the overnight period, but have concerns of the precipitation reaching the surface due to dry air. Winds are forecast to become light and variable this evening before shifting to the southwest mid morning Saturday. There is a low chance of a thunderstorm impacting or coming within the vicinity of GLD towards the latter part of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.