textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible across Norton and Graham counties tonight.

- Increased fire danger is forecast Monday with above average temperatures and afternoon relative humidities as low as the middle to upper teens. Wind gusts of 20-40 mph are forecast.

- Highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast through Tuesday.

- Chance for light precipitation late Tuesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Have nudged overnight low temperatures up a little bit as winds are forecast to become more southwesterly as the evening goes on. It's very possible that the coldest the temperatures get tonight are occurring currently as winds are currently light and variable across most of the area. The exception to the southwesterly winds is across Norton and Graham counties where winds are forecast to remain more southeasterly as some weak moisture advection moves into those areas. Forecast soundings are currently hinting at a period for some patchy fog potential starting around 4am CT and lasting through the mid morning. Overall saturation layer isn't overly deep but similar looking soundings were seen on Thursday and patchy dense fog was able to occur that morning. There is potential that the better moisture still remains east of the forecast area plus upstream high clouds which could impact the radiational fog potential as well which is limiting confidence especially when it comes to the dense fog potential.

For Monday, have nudged down dew points across southwest portions of the area as compressional heating with a passing cold front may briefly lead to lower dew points getting mixed down to the surface resulting in humidity values approaching 15%. This along with wind gusts up to 40 mph would lead to elevated if not locally critical fire weather concerns across Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Wallace and Greeley counties. If the front were to move through quicker which was alluded in the previous discussion then humidity values would remain around 20%.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1224 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Tonight, the relatively mild conditions are forecast to continue with mostly clear skies and winds lowering to around 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures should bottom out in the 20s.

For Monday, the upper level ridge that has been over the area is forecast to be deamplified and replaced by a trough that will swing through the Plains from the north. This should bring a cold front through during the morning hours. With the front moving through, temperatures should cap out in the mid to upper 50s during the morning, and then cool a few degrees going into the afternoon hours. This should further be helped by high level cloud cover forecast to move in from the west. With the temperatures being kept a bit cooler and keeping relative humidity in the 20s, critical fire weather conditions are not currently expected. That being said, wind gusts behind the front are forecast to reach speeds of 20-35 mph, so use extra caution if burning. Otherwise, no precipitation is forecast due to dry low and mid levels.

Monday night, temperatures are forecast to remain in the 20s due to a mix of winds hovering around 10 mph keeping us mixed out and dewpoints still lingering around 20 degrees.

Tuesday, the upper trough is forecast to continue its push to the south and east, largely remaining over the area. With this, we should end up in a dry slot and have mostly sunny skies. With the coldest air lagging behind, temperatures should be able to warm into the 50s during the day.

Tuesday night, a secondary shortwave is forecast to push into the area and help begin to shift the trough more to the east. As it does so, it is forecast to bring the colder air mass down into the area. As it does so, the air should being to saturate and allow for light precipitation and maybe some fog to develop. Precipitation is forecast to start as rain, but should see snow or maybe even some mixed precipitation as the night goes on. Little accumulation is forecast with most guidance having no QPF and the rest having around 0.05-0.10". So with the light accumulation and warm temperatures before this, there is currently no concern for winter weather impacts.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 118 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

A split flow in the Western United States is forecast to be fully established by Wednesday morning, providing northerly flow over the forecast region. A modest 500-mb jet streak of 60-70 kts looks to be over the Colorado Rockies, and could be providing enough rising motion to produce snow dustings across the CWA. Two primary bands of snow are possible with this system, one across Eastern Colorado, and another across portions of West Kansas. Some localized areas may receive between a quarter and half inch of snow from this system. Most snowfall is forecasted to be completed by the late morning to early afternoon. Highs on Wednesday could still reach the low-50s, but prolonged snowfall in the morning along with northerly winds throughout the afternoon could keep highs in the 40s.

Another shortwave trough embedded in the northerly to northwesterly flow could begin to impact the area during the evening and overnight hours Wednesday. This trough and attendant surface low pressure is forecast to traverse South-Central Canada and the Great Lakes Region throughout the night Wednesday and into Thursday. Westerly, downsloping surface winds could be established across the CWA as early as the late evening hours Wednesday in association with the passing low, which could promote higher temperatures in the low to mid-60s Thursday. Low RH air from the mountains is also possible with this system, which could create localized critical fire danger. However, a cold front during the late morning to early afternoon could flip surface winds to northwesterly or north-northwesterly. If this occurs, RH could be prevented from dropping to critical levels, and high temperatures in the 50s instead of the 60s would be possible. Based on NBM and ensemble model guidance, there is about 80-90% confidence that surface winds will have a northern component by the late morning to early afternoon hours, which would inhibit critical fire weather conditions. Still, a Red Flag Warning may be needed if there is a delay in the cold front's arrival, and westerly winds are allowed to persist through the afternoon hours.

As the shortwave trough continues to dig southeast, redevelopment may begin for the surface low pressure, which could briefly allow weak westerly surface winds across the CWA to return. This may be enough for low temperatures to remain in the upper-20s to low-30s Thursday night, but a south-southeastward moving high pressure from Canada would reestablish northerly surface winds by sunrise Friday. High temperatures are currently forecast in the upper-50s to low- 60s, but prolonged northerly winds could keep highs in the low to mid-50s.

Another shortwave trough looks to enter the United States from the Pacific Friday afternoon, but there is some model divergence as to how this shortwave should be handled. Some solutions indicate that it will be absorbed by the two larger troughs in the Desert Southwest and Northern Pacific, or it will be allowed to go around the upper level ridge in the Western United States. What is most certain regardless of model solutions is a return flow to develop across the forecast region ahead of a modest surface low as early as late Friday evening. This could allow for warm temperatures Saturday afternoon, with most of the CWA currently forecast to be in the low- 60s. However, depending on when the cold front associated with the low cuts off the return flow, high temperatures could be 10 degrees higher or lower than the current forecast.

Moving forward from Saturday afternoon, there are some indications that the split flow in the west could begin to break down. Model guidance is inconsistent on when this will take place. Some solutions indicate that the ridge will be overhead by Sunday afternoon, while other solutions suggest northwesterly flow will still be in place through the end of the forecast period. As long as the northwesterly flow is in place, there is still the possibility for periods of above and below average temperatures, as well as a chance for light snow events. However, if the northwesterly flow is allowed to break down by Sunday afternoon, warming could be favored through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 939 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

More pronounced southwesterly winds are forecast for GLD while MCK remains light and variable through the remainder of the overnight hours. VFR conditions are forecast to continue as well. There is a less than 10% chance of some fog affecting flight categories for MCK starting around 12Z. A cold front moving through the area mid to late morning Monday is forecast to lead to 25-30 knot wind gusts and a shift to more northwesterly winds for each terminal with the potential for the strongest lying at GLD. Winds are then forecast to wane as the nocturnal inversion sets in during the late afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.