textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms are possible this aft-eve, mainly south of I-70 between 4-9 PM MDT. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and 1 inch diameter hail are the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall and nuisance flooding are also possible.

- A prolonged period of hot weather is expected this weekend and early next week. High temperatures and heat index values are forecast to reach or exceed 100F on Sat-Sun-Mon. Extended periods of heat drastically increase the risk of heat related illnesses.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Today-Tonight: Synoptically similar to yesterday, albeit with modestly stronger W to WNW flow aloft on the eastern fringe of an amplifying ridge over the 4-Corners and northern Rockies. Late evening/early morning convection and lingering stratus have significantly affected the airmass in place over the Tri-State Area. At 18Z, temperatures were in the lower 70's across the majority of the Goodland CWA. Meanwhile, in far southwest KS, where sunshine has been unimpeded, temperatures have already reached 100F. Expect highs ranging from the lower-mid 80's in northeast portions of the area.. where overcast stratus persists early this afternoon.. to lower 90's in far southern portions of the area (Greeley and Wichita counties).

Convection (South): Surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate a pronounced TMB (thermal/moisture boundary) over southeast CO and southwest KS, extending eastward from Trinidad to Springfield and Ulysses then northeastward from Ulysses to Garden City and Ness City. This feature appears to be the primary focus for convective development, and this is where thunderstorm coverage and severe weather potential will be greatest. Convection initiating to the south could progress northward into southern portions of the Goodland CWA via several routes: via a WSW-SW mean wind, SW left-mover motion (if anticyclonic supercells are present) or if northward-moving outflow initiates additional development.

Convection (West): Separately, diurnal convection developing along portions of the Cheyenne Ridge, Colorado Front Range and Palmer Divide could progress E or SE into eastern CO late this afternoon and evening, though.. said activity would encounter a less favorable /increasingly hostile/ thermodynamic environment with eastern extent, especially in northwest KS where persistent cloud cover has significantly mitigated diurnal destabilization.

Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR are consistent with the above thinking, indicating that thunderstorm coverage and severe weather potential in the Goodland CWA will largely be tied to convective development along the TMB to the south.. and that scattered diurnal convection emanating from higher terrain to the west will tend to weaken/dissipate with eastern extent toward the CO-KS border.

Fri-Fri night: Guidance indicates that the amplifying ridge over the 4-Corners will expand eastward across the Rockies and Central/Southern Plains. Expect dry conditions, light winds and a warming trend, with highs in the mid 90's.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, which will keep hot, mid summer conditions in place across the Tri-State Area. As we move into next workweek, weather models show the ridge of high pressure gradually flattening and shifting westward toward the Four Corners Region. This retrogression will shift our local upper level wind pattern to the west/northwest, allowing for periodic disturbances to slide along the edge of the ridge and across the High Plains.

Several hot days are in store for the region starting Saturday. Forecast confidence is very high with 25th to 75th percentile max temperatures with only a 3-4 degree spread, with Saturday high temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to low 100s, and Sunday-Monday ranging from the low to mid 100s for the entire area. Areas along and east of US Highway 83 could approach Heat Advisory thresholds, with heat index values topping out around Sunday and Monday. As the ridge retreats westward Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will gradually ease with model variance becoming wider (highs ranging from the low to mid 90s).

A steady tap of moisture wrapping around the upper level high pressure system will keep atmospheric moisture levels unusually high across the region between the 75th and 99th percentile (well above normal) for late July. Saturday into Sunday will be mainly diurnally driven with storms initiating off the higher terrain of the Front Range/Palmer Divide during the afternoon, then drive eastward. Confidence is low that storms will actually make it over to extreme eastern CO counties. Chances for precipitation increase and spread further east as northwest flow aloft sharpens and some instability in the upper flow occurs (shortwave troughs moving through). With high atmospheric moisture, and a lack of mid level wind support leading to likely slow storm movement, heavy rain and perhaps some local minor flooding could occur under persistent / repeating storm cores. Otherwise, severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

GLD: Ongoing (at 1730Z) MVFR ceilings are expected to lift/ scatter to VFR early this afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible late this aft-eve, mainly between 00-05Z. Due to low confidence in thunderstorm coverage over far northwest KS, thunder has been mentioned in a PROB30 group. There is a modest signal that MVFR-IFR ceilings may develop over/near the Goodland terminal between midnight and sunrise Friday morning. Low ceilings, if present, would lift and scatter to VFR by late morning. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail. Expect SE winds at 10-15 knots through early to mid afternoon, with light winds persisting through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period. Low confidence in wind direction late this afternoon into tonight, when a modest low pressure system in CO will slowly track eastward over far western KS.

MCK: Borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings (3000-4000 ft AGL) are expected to lift/scatter by mid to late afternoon. While a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out late this aft-eve (~00-04Z), observational trends suggest that thunderstorms should largely be confined south of the McCook terminal (south of Hwy 36 in KS). With this in mind, thunderstorms are not explicitly mentioned in the 18Z TAF issuance. There is a strong signal that IFR to LIFR ceilings will develop overnight (~06-08Z)and persist through sunrise Friday morning. Low ceilings are expected to lift and scatter to VFR during the late morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period. Expect SE or ESE winds at 7-12 knots through this evening. Thereafter, winds will remain light and become variable.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.