textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm Memorial Day with temperatures forecast to reach the 90s. Thunderstorms are possible, mainly east of Highway 83, during the afternoon and evening hours. A few wind gusts to around 60 are possible.

- Tuesday's forecast has sustained winds around 30-40 mph for Eastern Colorado. Also, there is 40% confidence for localized blowing dust that could reduce visibility down to a mile.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1208 AM MDT Mon May 25 2026

Memorial Day is forecast to have slight upper ridging over the area with a trough digging into the Western United States. With this, temperatures are forecast to warm into the low 90s for most of the area with mostly sunny skies. Winds are forecast to shift to out of the south and increase in speed through the day to around 15-25 mph as a surface low deepens just west of the area.

The low deepening is also forecast to help develop some convergence zones along the Palmer Divide and in Eastern Colorado. Storms are then forecast to develop in the afternoon and evening hours with some 700-500mb moisture being wrapped around the upper trough and into the area. These storms are forecast to form in an environment with little MUCAPE (~500 J/kg) and little 0-6km shear (~15-25kts). Both of these forecast conditions help support a pulse storm mode, with little precip due to the dry air below the storms. This could lead to a slight concern for dry lightning and maybe some downburst wind gusts of 60-65 mph. Most of these storms should stay west of Highway 83 and should end shortly after sunrise as the instability from heating dissipates.

The overnight hours are forecast to see winds lower slightly as the low becomes less deep. Still, speeds around 10-20 mph and intermittent high cloud cover are forecast to keep temperatures generally in the 50s and low 60s.

Tuesday, the upper troughing in the west is forecast to be reinforced by a deeper trough. This is forecast to strengthen the low pressure west of the area and increase the pressure gradient. The question at hand is how much does it increase and how far to the east does the low expand? The issue is that winds should increase as the pressure gradient increases. For now, winds in Eastern Colorado are forecast to be sustained at 25-40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. The rest of the area is forecast to be sustained around 15-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph, but this could change depending on how far east the low meanders. For now, the probability for 40+ sustained winds in ~20% in Eastern Colorado, and quickly drops to 0% further east. This leads to little concern for a High Wind Warning at this time, though will watch closely the next 24 hours. There is also a concern for blowing dust should the winds be on the stronger side. For now, the favored area is Eastern Colorado. The current forecast lapse rates suggest that most of the blowing dust would mix out, making the main concern small plumes of very low visibility with generally poor air quality. But should cloud cover move over at the right time in the afternoon, we may have a brief period where dust is lofted and then trapped, leading to more widespread blowing dust issues. Otherwise, high temperatures are forecast to be cooler in the 80s with colder air beginning to slowly trickle in from the upstream trough and the increasing cloud cover. The increase in mid- level moisture may also allow for a few chances for storms, though persistent dry air at the surface should hinder storm development. Cloud cover moving in and stopping daytime heating is also forecast to keep storms chances around 20-40%.

Tuesday night, showers may linger into the night. Otherwise, a mix of clear and cloudy skies is forecast. Lows are forecast to generally remain in the 50s, but a few 40s are possible for western portions of the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 226 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

For Wednesday through Friday, the upper pattern begins to change. Currently there is some disagreement with guidance on how a trough over the west coast will move into the region. Some models suggest that the trough will deepen and extend farther south over the NM/TX border, some suggest that will the trough will move through quicker, and others suggest that it will stall out and cut-off.

The temperatures for the three day stretch are very similar with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, and a brief warm up on Friday with the highs in the 80s. Lows stay in the 50s. The winds remain to be from the south/southeast and relative calm in the 5-20 mph range. The CAPE values still are in the 1000 J/kg range for any storm potential.

For this period, there is about a 40-65% chance of exceeding 0.01" for each day. If the ridge maintains its position then the region could see high precipitation chances if the southerly flow stays intact. Guidance is also showing the PWATs in the 0.9 to 1.2" range. The vertical shear is low which may produce slow storms. There could be some localized urban flooding if we see precipation over the three days.

One final note for this period, there is some uncertainty with the movement of this next system. This will affect the storms/showers potential. As we continue to move forward, confidence will be higher on the likely scenario.

Saturday and Sunday, there is a signal of a new system that may bring precipitation chances. The highs remain in the 80s and lows in the 50s. The winds look to remain breezy. One reminder, this is about a week out and this does depend on the how the early system pans out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Be alert for low level wind shear through 14Z with winds at 200-300ft forecast to reach 45 kts. Otherwise, the other main concern is the potential for pop up thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Mainly between 21-04Z, storms are forecast to try and pop up in the area. KGLD has around a 30% chance to see storms while KMCK has a 15% chance.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.