textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy conditions continue through the end of the week.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon in Kansas.

- Hotter Sunday and Monday nearing the triple digits.

- Storm chances may return early next week as well as slightly cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1220 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2026

The short-term pattern continues to remain the same as an upper- level high is seated over the Northern and Central Rockies, allowing the blocking setup to persist. Down at 850 mb, the dominant feature is a high over the Gulf, pushing south-southeasterly air into the CWA. These features will work to gradually increase temperatures over the next few days.

Highs today look to largely be in the lower 90s warming into the mid to upper 90s by Saturday afternoon. Overnight temperatures are expected to remain fairly consistent. In the western CWA, lows will cool to around 60, but the eastern CWA look to remain closer to 70. There will be a low and slowing increasing potential of patchy, nuisance fog around sunrise the next few days. Visibilities may drop to below a mile in the patchy fog, but placement confidence is too low to single out any location.

As we reach peak heating in the afternoon hours the next few days, pop-up showers and storms are possible. If this convection is able to occur, we could see some dry lightning and gusty winds as the storm collapses. Confidence in this convection occurring is less than 15% each day.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The upper level ridge will be nearly centered over the forecast area for the start of this period. As such highs will be quite warm for Sunday and Monday. Probabilities for highs above 95F are above 70% for both days across the forecast area. High temperature spread in the ensemble data is around five degrees for Sunday, increasing to 10 degrees for Monday. Heat index values will be close to 100F for the eastern half of the forecast area.

After Monday the ridge shifts slightly to the south, allowing slightly cooler air to move into the forecast area. Probabilities for highs above 95F fall to 60% or less for Tuesday and Wednesday. There may be a couple fronts moving through between Monday night and Wednesday. This will lead to chances for rainfall. The spread in high temperatures remains around 10 degrees through the rest of the period.

Looking at the environment for storms, the deep layer shear is almost nonexistent through Tuesday. Wednesday, as the ridge shifts more southward, the deep layer shear increases to around 20kts. However storm motion will be 10 MPH or less, so heavy rainfall will be a potential with any storms that develop.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for both KGLD and KMCK. Winds will continue to favor a south-southeasterly direction with gusts Thursday returning to the 20-25 kts range. LLWS is possible until around 15Z when the stronger gusts mix down to the surface. If LLWS occurs it will be from the south at 25-35 kts around 400 feet AGL. However, there is moderate confidence that the stronger winds will be even higher than 400 feet, diffusing the shear to be under LLWS criteria.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.