textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A winter system is forecast to impact the area Friday morning until Saturday morning. A trace to 2 inches of snowfall is expected.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures return at the start of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

Today, as expected the low pressure system moved east of the area this morning, leaving light snow and 30-40 kts northerly winds in its wake. Light snow is expected to continue off and on throughout the area until 21-0Z, exiting the northeastern CWA last.The persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, which will gradually weaken throughout the midday and afternoon, will keep high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s across most of the area. The far southern CWA may warm to about 40s since they are seeing sunnier skies and less direct CAA.

A mild high pressure system builds in tonight, allowing the sky to clear out. This will keep winds calm and allow temperatures to drop into single digits and low teens tonight. Even with the weak winds the northeastern CWA could easily see wind chills around -5 Friday morning. Additionally, the majority of the setup tonight suggests fog is likely to form, including REFS showing 50% probability of less than 1 mile visibility. However, with temperatures around 5 to 10F, supercooled droplets are not likely to occur and instead small ice particulate is more likely. This is better than supercooled droplets as the ice will have a harder time latching to surfaces to make them slick.

Tomorrow, the high slowly exits the area as another low pressure system comes over the Rockies and looks to move over southern Kansas tomorrow night. Temperatures will be cool, topping out in the 30s across the CWA, largely due to cloud cover moving in during the morning. These clouds will be the moisture for our next round of snow, likely starting between 15-21Z in the western CWA. Peak timing for the snowfall looks to be around 0-6Z and will begin exiting the CWA around 6Z from west to east, fully exiting by 12-15Z Saturday.

With temperatures being so cold, P-type will be snow. Most of the area can expect a trace of snow by Saturday morning, with areas along and north of U.S. 24 having a 50% chance of seeing 1-2 inches of snow. There are signs of less than 10 microbars of Omega in the the saturated layer around 3Z, with conditional instability. This could indicate 1+ inch snowfall/hour rates, but would only occur for a short period of time. Areas under this enhancement could see total snowfall amounts of 2-4 inches.

Tomorrow night, the low will be exiting the CWA, and by Saturday a ridge will be building in from the west. This will push out any lingering moisture and allow our temperatures to start rebounding as highs warm into the 40s. As temperatures warm, RH values will drop into the upper teens, again. Eastern Colorado could also see some gusts around 20-25 kts, leading to some low end fire weather concerns. RH and winds may briefly hit criticality in eastern Colorado, but the recent light snowfall will help minimize any threats.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 112 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

The long term forecast remains consistent from yesterday with a warming trend beginning Sunday. Highs for Sunday are forecast in the high 40s to low 50s. A ridge building west of the Rocky Mountains will traverse towards our region ushering in another round of unseasonably warm temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period.

High temperatures Monday are forecast in the 60s and in the 70s for Tuesday. Winds are relatively mild for most of the county warning area (CWA), but our Colorado counties could see gusts up to 25 mph Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be from the west/southwest, so downsloping winds could allow conditions to warm and dry out further than currently forecast. Tuesday has the potential for elevated fire weather concerns. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the teens for the majority of the CWA. This, combined with downsloping winds could create briefly critical fire weather conditions for our Colorado counties.

A weak cold front moves through the area Tuesday into Wednesday cooling conditions slightly with highs forecast in the 60s. There is a chance for precipitation beginning overnight Wednesday as a series of shortwaves propogate through our CWA. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 15-30% at this time with rain as the primary precipitation type based on forecast temperatures. Low confidence on specifics due to this being the end of the forecast period and current model variances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1015 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR expected to prevail through Friday morning at both KGLD and KMCK. Friday afternoon, widely scattered snow showers will develop in northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas, with a low probability of impacting KGLD. Friday night, the snow showers will become more widespread with reduced visibilities and lowered ceilings likely at both locations.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.