textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect for portions of the Tri-State area this morning.

- Slightly elevated fire weather concern along/west US-385 this afternoon.

- Chances of rain increase Monday evening to as much as a medium to likely (40-90%) chance late Monday night, bringing the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 321 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect this morning from Hitchcock County to Thomas County to Gove County and counties east. Low visibility of a half mile or less will make driving conditions hazardous. Fog will scour out by mid to late morning as winds increase and temperatures warm.

A weak surface trough over central Kansas will deepen slightly this morning before getting pushed down into Oklahoma and Red River Valley by this evening in response to the surface high getting squished between the deep low along the East Coast and a deepening trough over the Great Basin. In addition, a shortwave trough lifting across the Desert Southwest will allow for weak leeside troughing along the Front Range and Eastern Colorado Plains. This will enhance southeasterly flow across Kansas and eastern Colorado. Slightly elevated fire weather conditions for northeast Colorado this afternoon with relative humidity dropping below 30 percent and increasing winds with gusts of 30-35 mph. The gusty southeasterly winds will gradually advect low-level moisture and mitigate fire weather concerns by early evening.

Looking at the upcoming workweek... A longer duration widespread rainfall event is setting up across portions of the Southern and Central Plains from from early Tuesday morning through Thursday. Models have struggle with the timing and placement of the frontal boundary and the resultant heavier swath of rainfall. While there is still some discrepancies with some details still needing to be ironed out, there is enough confidence (50-70%) that a good portion of the tri-state area will see at least a tenth of an inch. Heavier rainfall amounts of a half inch or higher are looking more likely on over western Kansas and northeastwards into Nebraska. The system that is bringing this round of widespread rainfall is currently digging southwards across the eastern Pacific towards California. This negatively tilted trough will close off as it moves across the Great Basin towards the Four Corners region. Strong southwesterly flow will transport sub-tropical moisture over the Desert Southwest and into the Plains. Monday afternoon and evening could see some thunderstorms develop as the front moves east, but lack of instabilty will keep storms sub-severe. The front then stalls and heavier rainfall will set-up Monday night into Tuesday morning, with periods of moderate to heavy rain possible through Thursday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A trough is favored to be trekking across the Southern and Central United States Tuesday morning, with an active jet streak to the north. A cold front is forecast to come through the area sometime during the morning and afternoon. LREF standard deviation in wind direction shows large amounts of spread south and east of a line from Cheyenne Wells, CO to Stratton, NE around noon. This would indicate that the cold front would be along or southeast of this line as well. High temperatures are currently forecast in the low to mid 70s across the forecast area. Precipitation appears likely along the front, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests that most of the area has greater than a 50% chance of receiving greater than 0.1 inches of rain, with portions of Gove and Graham Counties in Kansas around an 80% chance. The only area at less than 50% is portions of Yuma County in Colorado and far northwest Dundy County in Nebraska. LREF guidance shows all areas having less than a 25% chance of seeing surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) greater than 1000 J/kg Tuesday afternoon and evening, which would suggest that this precipitation would be linked to widespread rain as opposed to convective thunderstorms. The exception to this would be if the cold front can manage to come through during the later afternoon or evening. NBM 75th percentile and higher solutions show temperatures in the upper 70s or higher for highs, which could correspond with this scenario. This would allow for extra instability and a higher chance for thunderstorms to develop. However, this is not the favored solution, as rain is primarily expected to exist ahead of the cold front, which would minimize temperatures and prevent more significant instability.

Cool and wet conditions are expected to continue going into Wednesday in association with the trough approaching from the west. Uncertainty continues to remain as to how fast this feature will move eastward. Ensembles show the trough centered in one of the 4- Corners States with a large amount of spread on the trailing edge, which would indicate a slower progression. Guidance also continues to show a modest 40-50 kt jet streak curved cyclonically around the base of the trough, which would favor a surface low developing in the Southern High Plains. Ensemble and deterministic guidance indicates this surface low may be very slow moving, and perhaps stationary Wednesday and Thursday in association with the slow- moving trough. This would create the potential for several days of precipitation. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows most of the area higher than a 70% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain Wednesday, with a 40-45% chance on Thursday. Additionally, higher end (90th percentile and higher) 48 hr precipitation scenarios show between 3 and 4 inches of rain between Wednesday and Thursday. This is a low confidence scenario (5%), but could lead to some localized flash flooding if it occurs.

It should also be noted that the surface low may deepen enough to where northerly winds sustained at 15-20 kts are possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, particularly across portions of Eastern Colorado and far Western Counties in Kansas where NBM guidance shows a 40% chance or greater for such a solution. While highs are currently forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s, we may see a broad area of highs in the low to mid 60s due to the strong northerly winds and rain. NBM guidance suggests about a 15-30% chance across most of the forecast area that highs are below 65 F.

Model guidance begins to diverge by Friday morning, as ensembles are inconsistent on whether the trough will be through the area or not. If the trough remains in the area, conditions similar to Wednesday and Thursday could be experienced. However, if the trough is through the area, warm and dry conditions are possible. An active jet streak to the north may also introduce a more active weather pattern to the forecast area, with EC and LREF ensemble 500-mb mean heights showing a northwesterly flow coming into the forecast area. This would suggest the potential for meandering temperatures as well as on and off precipitation with shortwave systems.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1103 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

GLD: Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions continue into much of tonight along with gentle east-northeasterly winds, becoming southeasterly overnight. MVFR is possible by late tonight as fog begins to develop, further dropping to IFR and potentially LIFR as fog thickens further and ceilings lower to as low as 300 ft with 1/2SM visibility, possibly lower, during the hours surrounding sunrise. Fog should clear out by mid-morning tomorrow while ceilings could linger, maintaining IFR ceilings into the late morning hours while southeasterly winds pick up to near 15-20 knots, gusting up to 25 knots.

MCK: Conditions have returned to VFR at this time as fog has dissipated and clouds continue to scatter. East-southeasterly winds veer throughout today, becoming southeasterly and increasing to 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 25 knots by late morning tomorrow. Meanwhile, fog is expected to develop late tonight, reducing ceilings and visibility to MVFR, further deteriorating to LIFR for several hours surrounding sunrise. Fog should clear out by mid-morning tomorrow while ceilings could linger, maintaining IFR ceilings into the late morning hours.