textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend over the next few days; 70s look to return Tuesday, groovy.

- Breezy to gusty conditions look to return Wednesday behind a cold front. This could lead to blowing dust or precipitation.

- Increased concern for fire weather conditions Tuesday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1212 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

Today, a ridge will be in place over the Great Basin, extending it's shield over the the Tri-State area. The ridge remains in place until Tuesday. This will promote mild and warming conditions through this timeframe. High temperatures today will be in the 40s and by Tuesday, into the 70s. Low temperatures will also see significant warming. Temperatures tonight are forecast to drop into the low teens, but Tuesday night lows look to be in the 30s.

Tuesday, with temperatures being so warm, RH values are forecast to drop into the teens across the Tri-State area. NBM currently shows gusts topping out around 20-22 kts in northern Yuma county. However, GFS, NAM, ECMWF, and CMC-NH are all showing an 850 mb trough pushing over the eastern CWA creating an afternoon northwesterly LLJ. The magnitude of this LLJ is still a major question, as the aforementioned models show anywhere from 25-50 kts. Since we're expecting to be so warm and these winds will be following a mild cold front, we should expect a decent portion of these winds to mix to the surface. Confidence in briefly critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon sits at around 25% with confidence in Red Flag conditions being about 20%.

Overnight Tuesday, an 850 mb high looks to move over the CWA. This could help cool temperatures off into the upper 20s, slightly cooler than what the NBM currently shows.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

Wednesday is when the ridge pattern looks to break as our next upper- level low pushes into the High Plains. The timing of this trough is a bit of a question, as it could enter the region between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Since guidance is heavily favoring a FROPA after prime day-time heat, temperature ranges have notable decreased. Highs are expected to be in the 70s, with the southeastern CWA potentially hitting 80.

The GFS, CMC-NH, and ECMWF all show a strong, windy cold front for Wednesday. Winds at 850 mb behind the front could range anywhere from 30-45 kts. GFS, NAM, and CMC-NH also show 0-2 km lapse rates ahead/with the front in the 8.5-10 C/km. Additionally, 2-2.5 km lapse rates behind the front look to largely remain under 6 C/km. This leads to some concern for blowing dust, including a haboob, as the front pushes through. However, 12Z runs of these models are coming into more agreement that the front will enter the CWA around 22-0Z from the northwest. This late passage could allow the 0-2 km lapse rates to relax as the sun goes down, reducing the potential for blowing dust. Confidence for blowing dust reducing visibility to less than 1 mile is about 20%.

Additionally, depending on the amount of moisture we have available in the column as the front comes through, we could see some thunderstorms. Moisture is the main component missing as mid level lapse rates and Theata-E profiles support instability. Any storms would occur around 0-3Z, but would transition to stratiform between 3-12Z Thursday morning. Very little QPF is expected with any precipitation that occurs.

After this low, we look to remain in northwesterly flow aloft, which typically provides an unsettled pattern for us. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Thursday, only warming into the low to mid 60s as northerly flow persists. Thursday night into Friday, a brief ridge moves in, likely warming temperatures back to upper 60s to low 70s, depending on the timing of a cold front. Saturday looks similar to Thursday, cooler behind the front.

Thanks to no moisture advection, precipitation is unlikely after Thursday morning and RH values are forecast to drop into the teens. This will bring back the fire weather threat as wind gusts could easily be over the 25 kts range, especially Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1001 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. At KGLD, southeasterly winds are favored this throughout the entire period, however brief southwesterly winds are possible at the start and end of the period. KMCK will remain fairly light and variable until tomorrow morning. Near the end of the period, southeasterly winds could be gusting close to 20 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.