textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions on Tuesday. Red Flag and Particular Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warnings are in effect. Very dry conditions and winds gusting over 60 mph will create conditions favorable for explosive fire growth.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible on Wednesday in northeast Colorado and adjacent areas in northwest Kansas.

UPDATE

Issued at 509 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

The Blowing Dust and High Wind Warnings have been allowed to expire as scheduled. Gusty winds are still expected, but will be rapidly weakening over the next few hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1056 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Shortwave trough will lift out into Nebraska this evening taking the strongest winds with it. Gusts of 20 to 30 kts will continue through the early evening hours, then become light as the boundary layer decouples towards 06z. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Tomorrow, another shortwave trough will move in from the southwest in a similar, yet not quite as extreme as today, scenario. The accompanying 500 mb jet streak will be around 85 kts (compared to 120 kt jet today), with the strongest part of the jet over southwest Kansas. Still, as mixing commences in the late morning and early afternoon some of those stronger winds will begin reaching the surface. Expecting peak gusts in the 25 to 35 kt range, highest in Colorado, which will overlay afternoon relative humidity minimums in the lower to middle teens. This will result in another day of critical fire weather conditions generally along and west of a line from Wray, Colorado, to Russell Springs and Leoti, Kansas. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s.

Tomorrow night, a surface low will deepen in southwest Nebraska and then move east along the Kansas border through the night. A few light rain showers will be possible in the evening near the surface low, then changing to scattered light snow showers overnight as colder air works in behind the cold front on the backside of the low. While snow accumulations will be minimal, windy conditions will accompany the front overnight. HRRR showing gusts in the 40 to 50 kt range between 09-12z immediately along/behind the front. Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

A period of below normal temperatures is expected Thursday through Saturday with a broad upper trough carved out across the central CONUS. High temperatures will generally be in the lower 40s and low temperatures in the teens, which is around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. There will be occasional chances for light snow during that time as weak disturbances move through the mean trough axis. Wraparound light snow may continue Thursday morning behind the departing system, mainly in southwest Nebraska. Another round of light snow will be possible Friday night/Saturday morning in the entire area with another trough moving through. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensembles show snow amounts of less than one inch with both systems.

For Sunday through Tuesday, an upper ridge will build over the area from the west resulting in dry conditions and moderating temperatures. Highs will be near normal on Sunday (mid 40s), slightly above normal on Monday (upper 40s to mid 50s) and above normal on Tuesday (60s). Lows will be in the teens and 20s. May have to start watching for fire weather conditions returning on Tuesday with afternoon relative humidity minimums dropping into the teens and an upper jet streak in the vicinity which could potentially mix down gusty winds.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 355 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions at both KGLD and KMCK are expected to prevail through the period. Winds at the surface are forecast to rapidly weaken after sunset, leading to LLWS from the west at 40-50 kts around 300-500 feet AGL. There is a chance KGLD and KMCK could see some blowing dust between 0-2Z as the remainder of the strong winds taper off.

Tomorrow could see some gusts around 30 kts for KGLD, but KMCK should top out no more than 25 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 239 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Main focus continues to be on a potentially dangerous fire weather day for the area today. Portions of the area has been designated a Particular Dangerous Situation (PDS) wording for their Red Flag Warning product. This is where confidence is highest at least in some overlap of strong to damaging winds, very low humidity and the driest of fuels.

Winds are forecast to become southwesterly overnight Monday leading to drier air advecting in and an increase in temperatures resulting in overnight humidity values maxing out around 50% across eastern Colorado. A volatile environment is forecast to be set for the potential for large and quick moving wild fires is forecast to exist across portions of the area. Strong to damaging winds with sustained winds of 40-50 mph and wind gusts of at least 55-65 mph are currently forecast. Humidity values are also forecast to fall at least into the lower teens perhaps as low as the mid single digits.

Wind gusts are forecast to be around 20-30 mph through around 8-9am MT before quickly ramping up between 9-10am where gusts of 50-65 mph are forecast along with sustained winds around 40-50 mph. Winds during this time will be from the southwest. Into the early afternoon sustained winds may weaken some to around 30-40 mph with 60 mph gusts perhaps a bit more sporadic as any damaging wind gusts would be from increasing mixing heights to around 10000 feet AGL. A cold front moving in from the west will shift winds from the southwest to a more westerly direction along with very low dew points in the single digits helping keep humidity values low. There is some concern for another surge of damaging winds with the cold front as well. Breezy to gusty winds are then forecast to continue through the evening before waning around 11pm MT. Be aware for blowing dust and localized dust storms throughout the day as well. Overnight temperatures into Wednesday morning are forecast to fall below freezing which could have an impact on hoses/water freezing up should any fires still be ongoing.

Confidence is very high to almost a near certainty in numerous hours of critical fire weather occurring across most if not all of the forecast area. The main concern other than the low humidity values is the duration of the sustained winds greater than 30 mph and being as high as 50 mph at times. This along with near record high temperatures and the low humidity is the signal for numerous hours of extreme grassland fire danger index and forecast values exceeding 100. If the current forecast pans out then locations across eastern Colorado could see around 8 hours of extreme values.

Tuesday night and into Wednesday, widespread humidity values maxing out around 45-50% would provide little relief before another round of critical fire weather develops across the area. Locations along and south of Interstate 70 are currently favored for multiple hours of critical conditions again as southwest winds are forecast to gust up to 45 mph. 10 hour fuel moisture is forecast to fall to around 10% and then fall below 10% into Wednesday which suggests very dry fuels. Regional ERC values according to the National Interagency Coordination Center for southwestern portions of the area are forecast to continue to climb to in between 40 and 50 whereas the 90th percentile is located at 50. As mentioned above the northwestern portion of the area currently has ERC's in the 90th percentile according to the same site. This also does bring concern to the upper end potential of this fire weather event that there is is regional support for high ERC's.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ252>254. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening for NEZ079>081.