textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area Sunday afternoon, mainly west of Hwy 83 and south of I-70 where warm temperatures, low humidity and breezy southwest winds may lead to rapid wildfire growth.

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect Monday for Greeley and Wichita counties in Kansas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Dense fog remains across eastern portions of the are this morning as moisture advection continues to occur. Synoptically, large scale troughing is forecast to occur through the day, whereas at the surface troughing is also in place across northeast Colorado. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s along with breezy winds gusting around 30-40 mph through the day.

The main focus for the day is on thunderstorm development as early as 20Z. Two areas appear to be favored for storms with the first being across southern and southeast portions of the area (Greeley, Wallace, Logan and Wichita counties). Forcing for this is from embedded shortwaves within the synoptic flow primarily in the 700- 500mb level. The intensity and coverage of these storms still remains in question due to lingering cloud cover and if dry air from the surface trough resulting in a weak dryline weakens them. If the dryline scenario does occur then dry thunderstorms could become more of a concern with lightning induced fire start potential. Hail around half dollar size could be possible with the strongest storms with around 2000 j/kg in the moist sector along with effective shear around 30 knots. Wind gusts up to 70 mph could also be possible as well but given downshear vectors only remaining around 50 knots think that 70mph would be the high end of the hazard spectrum. Should winds of 55-70 mph occur then dust storms and possibly a wall of dust may occur as the 12Z HRRR has around 10 C/km 0-2km lapse rates and 2-2.5km lapse rates around 7 c/km which may be enough of a cap to keep the dust near the surface.

The 2nd area of concern is across Kit Carson, Yuma, Dundy and possible Cheyenne county Kansas. This is forecast to occur starting around 01Z. This region is forecast to be in proximity of a left exit region of a 250mb jet synoptically providing forcing. These storms are forecast to remain more elevated as drier surface air is forecast to be in place. Cloud to ground lighting may be the biggest hazard from this activity but inverted v soundings and downshear vectors remaining around 45-50 knots along with DCAPE values around 1100 j/kg may still continue to yield win wind gust potential up to 60 mph. Any severe potential should be done by 06Z but showers may linger through the early morning hours.

Sunday, another warm day is in store for the area with high temperatures in the 80s. Have opted to cancel northern portions of the Fire Weather Watch has ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members are in great agreement with a low pressure system being situated fairly closely to Yuma county. Due to the proximity of the low winds are forecast to be fairly weak for the majority of the day for northern areas. I did not have the confidence to upgrade any of the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning as the wind potential looks to be fairly marginal and I also have concerns on the duration of overlapping of critical conditions. Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions is currently around 50-60% with the highest across Cheyenne (CO), Greeley and Wichita counties. Will also need to keep an eye on the potential for a short window of severe weather as well across Gove, Graham and Norton counties. SOme guidance has the dryline a little further west and with the counties in the right exit region of a weak 250mb jet may be enough for some storms to form. Should a storm be able to form large to very large hail would be the main concern along with damaging winds. Confidence in a storm forming is currently around 10-15% at this time. Additional showers may also develop on the back side of the low but have concerns if any precipitation can reach the ground due to the dry low levels.

Monday, warm weather is forecast to continue as persistent troughing synoptically will continue to keep southwesterly flow in place. At the surface another low pressure system is forecast to develop across eastern Colorado and eject into W Kansas. Confidence was high enough to issue a Fire Weather Watch for only Greeley and Wichita counties as the position of another low pressure system will greatly affect wind gusts for the day. High temperatures for the day are forecast in the low to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

An upper-level trough looks to be approaching the forecast area from the west Tuesday morning, with a 50-60 kt 500-mb jet across portions of New Mexico. This pattern would favor a surface cyclone centered across portions of Northwest Kansas and Nebraska. GEFS ensemble guidance suggests that an 850-mb high pressure system spread across portions of the Southeastern United States and back into Mexico and Baja California will aid this surface cyclone by providing southwesterly surface winds across the forecast region Tuesday. A mix of wet and dry conditions are possible with this pattern, with warm and dry conditions out ahead of the cyclone's cold front, and possibly precipitation along and behind the front. Forecast highs across the CWA are in the lower-70s to lower-80s Tuesday, with relative humidities (RH) in the mid-teens across portions of Northwest Kansas and East-Central Colorado. LREF guidance suggests a 30-40% chance for RH values to meet criteria for critical fire weather across portions of Southern Cheyenne County in Colorado, and Greeley and Wichita Counties in Kansas. Additionally, NBM guidance indicates around a 75% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for the hazard across this zone. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed rests around 10% at this time. Regarding the cold front and precipitation, rain is most likely across portions of Northeastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. NBM guidance suggests around a 30-40% chance for rain across this zone during the afternoon and evening hours.

The cold front from this cyclone is favored to start crossing the forecast area sometime between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning. Precipitation may be allowed to linger across portions of the Tri-State area Wednesday morning and afternoon in association with the front, with high temperatures currently forecast in the 70s. However, RH values may be allowed to drop into the mid-teens in portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Western Kansas, which could implicate critical fire weather as a concern once again. LREF guidance provides about a 50-60% chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria across this zone, with NBM guidance suggesting over a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria (highest across Northeast Colorado at around 60-70%). Precipitation Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday may hinder critical fire weather during this period, however NBM guidance suggests less than a 20% chance for more than 0.1 inches of rain across this zone Tuesday evening and Wednesday. As such, this does not appear to be a major inhibiting factor for critical fire weather Wednesday. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Wednesday is around 5-10%.

The 850-mb high across the south still looks to be in place Thursday, with 500-mb troughing across the Western United States redeveloped. Southwesterly surface level flow would once again be favored from this pattern, which may set the stage for another critical fire weather event Thursday afternoon. RH values are currently forecast in the upper single-digits to mid- teens across the forecast area, with gusts in the 25-35 mph range. Confidence in critical fire weather conditions is highest across portions of East- Central Colorado and far West-Central Kansas, where LREF guidance suggests over a 90% probability for RH values to meet criteria, and NBM guidance suggesting about a two in three chance for wind gusts to meet criteria. As such, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday is about 20%.

Model guidance begins to diverge a bit more by Friday morning, but southwesterly upper-level flow appears to be present. A shortwave trough embedded in this flow moving off to the northeast may provide a cold front across the area Friday, which could allow a strong cold front to traverse the region throughout the day. Cooler conditions may last through the end of the forecast period, with forecast highs in the lower-60s to lower-70s Friday, and mid-50s to lower-60s Saturday. Rain may also be associated with the cold frontal passage going into the weekend, with opportunities for wintry precipitation during the night hours when temperatures look to drop below freezing.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with cloud cover confined to cirrus at or above ~20,000 ft AGL. A ~50 knot southwesterly low-level jet (per KGLD velocity data) will foster LLWS late this evening and very early Sunday morning. LLWS will abate by sunrise as the low-level jet shifts eastward into central KS. S to SW surface winds at ~12-16 knots will shift to the SW or WSW late Sunday morning. SW to WSW winds will increase to 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25-30 knots this afternoon. Winds will back to the SSW and decrease to 10-15 knots after sunset, near the end of the 06Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with cloud cover confined to cirrus at or above ~20,000 ft AGL. A ~50 knot southwesterly low-level jet (per KGLD velocity data) will foster LLWS late this evening and early Sunday morning. LLWS will abate by sunrise as the low-level jet shifts eastward into central KS. S to SW surface winds at ~10-15 knots late this evening will shift to the W-WSW and decrease to ~5 knots by sunrise and remain light through the duration of the morning. Winds will back to the SSW and increase to 10-15 knots during the early afternoon and persist through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period. Occasional gusts up to ~25 knots are possible for a few hours during the late afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ013-014-027-028-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for KSZ041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ253-254. NE...None.