textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense freezing fog may impact western parts of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado through 9 AM MT this morning.

- There is a chance for light snow across southwest Nebraska and east of Highway 83 in Kansas through this afternoon. Accumulations would be very light if snow does develop, with amounts under one half inch.

- Above average temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s are forecast to return Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Early this morning: Surface high pressure is in place across eastern Nebraska and Kansas with a stalled frontal zone to the west along the front range. Colder temperatures (near zero) have combined with lighter winds to product wind chills occasionally to -10 in Norton and Graham counties, but with mid level clouds increasing in the east temperatures are starting to trend up a little and the chance for advisory impacts (-15 wind chills) have greatly decreased. There is a signal in CAMs for dense fog to develop near and south of the Palmer Divide and may slide east into the western parts Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado. This is near where upslope east-southeast BL flow is orientated towards the frontal zone in the west, and while coverage/location could be limited in the 5-9 AM MT period, but there could be brief impacts along I-70 in our west. We will monitor trends, as so far fog has been lighter to our west/southwest limiting impacts (1-3sm).

Today: Northwest flow aloft remains in place across the Central High Plains, while the stronger mid/upper level trough has pushed southeast of the region towards the central Mississippi River Valley. There is a weaker mid level wave upstream moving out of Wyoming that will eventually pass through central Nebraska and towards eastern Kansas, with weaker forcing and limited moisture advection over much of the tri-state region. The general trend in guidance (including HREF/NBM) is for higher measurable precipitation chances to remain northeast and east of our area, however there is a window this morning through this afternoon where flurries or brief light snow showers could bring a dusting (less than 0.5") of snowfall. The best chances in our area are across southwest Nebraska and east of Highway 83 in KS. Impacts would be minimal, though a few slick spots could develop (similar to Friday afternoon/evening).

Sunday: The large scale trough in the eastern US and western US ridge beginning to deamplify while shortwave ridging builds towards the Central Rockies. Rising heights and increasing downslope resulting in broad Lee trough development towards the Central High plains and good warming of the airmass across the tri-state region. There is a strong consensus for high temperatures in the 60s across the tri- state region, and while lower RH values in the 17-20% range develop lighter winds limit the potential for critical fire weather conditions.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 215 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Temperatures continue to be unseasonably warm as we start off in a mild northwest flow Monday. High temperatures are forecast in the low 60s for a majority of the county warning area (CWA). Winds will be mild and variable but pick up in the afternoon. Gusts are forecast approximately 15 mph for the eastern portion of the CWA and 25-30 mph for our Colorado counties. Currently, relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the upper teens for our Colorado counties and Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are approximately 30. Westerly winds aloft could further dry things out and increase chances for critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon when timing of lowest RH values, highest GFDI values, and highest wind gusts are all forecast to occur. Winds quickly back down overnight and return to our typical diurnal pattern.

Tuesday, we have a ridge building off the west coast while a trough axis sweeps through our region causing a slight cool down. High temperatures are forecast in the 50s with lows in the 20s. As the trough continues to dig throughout the day, we see an increase in Probability of Precipitation (PoPs). Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, PoPs are fairly low at <25% due to lack of moisture at the surface and lack of upper level support. If precipitation were to occur, it would likely be a rain/snow mixture due to highs forecast in the low 50s with lows in the 20s Tuesday and Wednesday.

We quickly return to a north/northwest flow with highs in the 60s forecast for Thursday and Friday. Winds may pick up Thursday afternoon with gusts forecast up to 30 mph for our Colorado counties. With RH values forecast in the teens, fire weather may become a concern for our Colorado counties Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1011 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Frustrating ceiling forecast for GLD as the terminal is located on the edge of a stratus deck. With the way the evening has gone thus far and with the way the eastern edge of the stratus deck is morphing it seems as if temporary VFR conditions are more likely and more frequent than IFR for over the terminal. Still can't rule out brief instances of IFR as the KITR terminal is at 007 foot ceilings. Ceilings are forecast to vary through the next 4-6 hours before a more prolonged period of solid MVFR to possibly IFR stratus moves through around 13Z. Winds are forecast to turn more southerly with gusts around 25 knots through the afternoon.

MCK is more straight forward with VFR conditions forecast for the period. Similar to GLD winds are forecast to turn more southerly with wind gusts around 25 knots through the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.