textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe weather possible late this afternoon into tonight. Very low confidence in storm development and coverage. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards. Overall, severe weather potential appears to be lower than yesterday (Thursday).

- Weekend precipitation chances mainly at night with showers and storms moving out of Colorado. Severe chances will be low with this activity.

- Heat peaks today, then slightly cooler over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Northwest flow continues today around a ridge centered near the Four Corners. Weak to moderate instability is building in the area with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear. Models have struggled in this pattern with the convection, and will probably do so once again today, with a wide range of solutions offered by the 12z CAMs. They are missing some of the mesoscale features which ultimately play an important role, such as the outflow boundary which is moving through areas north of I-70 originating from morning convection in Nebraska. While confidence is low in the details, generally expect to see isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon north of Interstate 70. A supercell will be possible given the environmental parameters, capable of large hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado. Another cluster of storms may move across the area this evening, originating in southeast Wyoming and sustained by a strengthening low level jet. If those storms develop and cluster, may see another risk of damaging winds similar to last night. Overnight, the low level jet remains active with isentropic lift maximized over eastern parts of the area (east of Highway 25). May see elevated storms develop late near or just east of the area with a marginal wind and hail threat as MUCAPE lingers at 1000-1500 j/kg. Outflow from those storms will push a cold front through the area around 12z with winds shifting to the east and briefly gusty. May see patchy fog develop along the leading edge of the front as well, mainly in the Colorado/Kansas border area, but it would be transient.

On Saturday the upper ridge axis will run from eastern Wyoming and Colorado to the Texas panhandle. Convection will develop in the afternoon over the Rockies and Front Range with the southwest flow, then move across the eastern plains and spreading into the area Saturday night. With the later arrival, probably not until after 03z, storms will be weakening but may still pose a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts as they make their way across the area through the overnight.

The ridge flattens out on Sunday and extends from the Four Corners to the Texas panhandle. Zonal flow over the top through northern Colorado will initiate convection over the mountains and Front Range, and once again make the trek across the plains and into the area Sunday night. These will arrive slightly earlier, 00-02z, in far northeast Colorado and may still pose a marginal wind and hail threat, but with only weak instability forecast and deep layer shear around 20 kts, severe chances will be low. Storms will gradually weaken as they move east into the remainder of the area Sunday evening.

The ridge strengthens a bit on Monday with height rises in Colorado, and the zonal flow is through southern Wyoming. Forecast instability is weak and generally less than 1000 j/kg, though deep layer shear does increase to around 40 kts. RFS suggests a few scattered storms developing, moving east and then southeast with the mean flow Monday afternoon and evening in areas generally north of Interstate 70 with perhaps a marginal risk for wind and hail.

The temperature trend for the period will be near to slightly above normal through the weekend, then above normal on Monday with temperatures currently forecast in the mid to upper 90s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Synoptically, a ridge is forecast to be over the SW CONUS and currently looks to remain relatively stationary. Throughout the week, there appears to be a few shortwaves moving though the CWA, which may bring higher precipitation chances.

High temperatures for the week are forecast to be in the 90s for the majority of the area. The "coolest" day for the period looks to be Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, whereas Friday looks to be the hottest with highs in the mid 90s. If the ridge begins to amplify or move eastward, as guidance hints, higher temperatures could be seen. Winds throughout the week are forecast to be calm to breezy, and relative humidity values are expected to be higher than 30%, which should help minimize fire weather concerns.

Precipitation chances are present during the week. As some shortwaves move around the high, they will likely to be our main precipitation producers. The day currently with the highest precipitation chances is Tuesday. Guidance hints at some vorticity associated with the shortwave as it moves through Tuesday afternoon. Both CAPE and shear appear sufficient for severe storms; however, some guidance indicates a mismatch between higher/lower CAPE and lower/higher shear, which could lead to less organized storms. Looking at qpf, some guidance shows the possibility of heavy rainfall with these storms, which is something to keep in mind as we get closer to Tuesday. The rest of the week there is roughly a 15-30% chance of PoPs as various shortwaves move through the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 432 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop through this evening, with low probabilities of directly impacting either KGLD or KMCK. Tonight, some modest increase in coverage may increase the chances of a thunderstorm with brief gusty winds and reductions in visibility due to rain. Overnight, a cold front will move through around 12z with surface winds shifting to the east. The front may result in patchy fog and a period of low clouds, mainly at KGLD, through early Saturday morning. A return to VFR is expected by mid morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.