textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong wind gusts around 35-55 mph from the northwest will develop behind a cold front early Friday morning. Patchy blowing dust is possible throughout the day as gusts of 25-40 mph will persist.

- A Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of the area for Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 549 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Surface dewpoints have remained in the 30s across bulk of the Red Flag Warning area, with humidities still in the 20-25% range. While there are likely a few spots that may briefly see RFW conditions, with cooling temperatures the threat for widespread and persistent critical fire weather conditions is low. Therefore the Red Flag Warning for this afternoon has been cancelled.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

This afternoon, we warm back up into the 70s as winds become southerly and gust up around 25-35 kts in the western CWA. With the warmer temperatures and stronger winds. The Red Flag Warning remains active until 2Z, when RH values will rebound.

Overnight tonight, another cold front will sweep through the area. This does introduce a 10-15% chance of precipitation along and north of U.S. 34 before 18Z. Ahead of the cold front, south-southeasterly winds of 20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts. Once the cold front hits, winds will shift fairly quickly and gusts from the northwest around 30-45 kts is forecast. There is a slim (<2%) chance blowing dust gets kicked up overnight with the FROPA. Temperatures will cool into the 30s and 40s, coolest in the western CWA. Winds should be peaking around 10-15Z, this is when occasional 50 kts gusts have a 50% chance of occurring. There is not enough confidence in reoccurring 50 kts gusts to warrant a High Wind Warning at this time.

Throughout the day, winds are forecast to keep gusting to around 25- 40 kts, with the highest winds in the northwestern CWA. RH values are forecast to drop into low to mid teens during the afternoon hours. Along and south of U.S. 40 in Kansas and south of I-70 in Colorado, critical fire weather conditions are expected, so a Red Flag Warning has been issued. In Kansas, based on how fast temperatures warm up and how far the very dry air expands to the northeast, critical fire weather conditions are possible, prompting a Fire Weather Watch. Yuma county will see the strongest winds, which is pushing GFDI values into the low 60s, prompting the Watch for this zone.

Throughout the day, there is a potential for blowing dust with these stronger winds. By 21Z 0-2 km lapse rates will be above 10 C/km, increasing the potential for lofted dust. Confidence in visibility being reduced to less than 1 mile in a plume or two near source regions is about 35%. Overnight Friday, winds will weaken and temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s. There is a 10% chance cloud cover caps gusts at under 30 kts.

Saturday, we keep our northwesterly flow in the low levels as a high at 850 mb exits southeastern Colorado to the southeast. This will work to keep temperatures in the 60s as northwesterly winds gust up around 20-30 kts. RH values look to remain in the upper teens, but if temperatures warm, critical fire weather conditions may return.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Sunday, there is a building ridge in the western CONUS placing us in a predominantly zonal flow. Expect sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 70s for the county warning area (CWA). Lows are forecast in the 30s to 40s. Wind gusts up to 20 mph are possible and relative humidity (RH) values are in the mid teens to low 20s, so fire weather conditions are not a concern at this time.

Conditions look similar on Monday with a building ridge traversing towards our region. Winds increase with gusts up to 30 mph possible for the northern CWA. Highs remain in the 70s with lows in the 20s to 30s. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, we see an uptick in Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) due to a weak cold frontal passage and weak shortwaves passing through the region. PoPs range from 10-20% with a wintry mix possible based on forecast temperatures.

Chances for precipitation continue Tuesday as weak embedded shortwaves move through the region. Lack of upper level forcing will keep PoPs low at around 20% for the region. If precipitation occurs, rain is most likely given forecast temperatures. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s across the CWA.

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, precipitation chances drop to <5% as we are forecast to be in a split upper level flow. Southerly winds will advect warm air into our region and further warm conditions. NBM is trending warmer than model runs yesterday. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s, which is approximately 20 degrees higher than yesterday.

The potential for fire weather conditions Wednesday will be something to monitor as the week progresses. RH values are forecast in the upper teens with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible. Warmer temperatures may promote further drying and potentially drop RH values to below 15%, which would meet Red Flag Warning criteria. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) range from 20 to 40 for the CWA, supporting rapid fire spread and growth if any fires were to start.

Models are beginning to show potential for an active pattern returning Thursday. Low confidence on specifics due to this being the end of the forecast period and current model variances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 549 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A deepening low pressure system will keep strong and gusty south-southeasterly winds in place through the evening, possibly creating period of LLWS at times at both terminals, although MCK will have the highest chance. A powerful cold front will follow behind this low, bringing a period of strong northerly winds gusting at or above 45kts and a period of MVFR to IFR ceilings behind it. Winds may weaken for a time after the front passes, but will increase quickly after sunrise through the early afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for KSZ013>015. Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for KSZ027>029-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for COZ252. Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ253-254. NE...None.