textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures continue through Wednesday.

- Chances for thunderstorms tonight through Wednesday morning, and again Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

- Warming back towards the 100s over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Ridge centered over the Four Corners will continue to be the dominant upper feature. An active northern stream in the northern plains and Canada has flattened the ridge enough such that shortwave energy rotating around it will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday night. After that, the ridge starts to amplify again heralding a return to hot and dry conditions beginning on Friday.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to quickly move east across the region this afternoon, as a weak shortwave moves through. These are likely elevated and tapping into weak MUCAPE of around 500 j/kg and do not pose a severe risk. Tonight, may see a few isolated storms south of Interstate 70 in the evening on the nose of the low level jet, also elevated but with a slight increase in MUCAPE to around 500-1000 j/kg. Better chances will probably be overnight with another subtle shortwave moving through western Nebraska. Storms will continue to be elevated with the cool boundary layer cut off, but with still increasing MUCAPE, up to 1200 j/kg is forecast in Nebraska, may see a low risk of mainly pea size hail, perhaps up to quarter size if a stronger updraft can be maintained. However, the overall severe risk remains low. This activity will gradually move east through Wednesday morning with the upper wave. Low clouds will persist through the overnight and morning, with perhaps some patchy fog developing around sunrise with the surface near saturated.

After the morning showers and storms move out, clouds will be slow to erode through Wednesday afternoon. Similar to today, temperatures may be held in check depending on when the clouds clear. Highs will somewhat optimistically reach the mid to upper 70s for highs, perhaps some lows 80s south of Highway 40 where clouds clear earliest. Wednesday night, there are better model indications that the low level jet will be active south of Interstate 70 after about 03z and through the overnight hours. They show an east to west oriented band of MUCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg surging northward, along with 50-60 kts of deep layer shear. These will likely once again be elevated with too much CIN to overcome at the surface. However, given the environmental parameters may see a risk of hail to quarter size or higher with stronger updrafts. Convection will begin to weaken and move southeast towards 12z as the low level jet weakens and backs to westerly.

On Thursday, southeasterly winds will advect 60+ dew points into the area, with the REFS showing moderate instability of up to 2000 j/kg in Kansas in Nebraska by the afternoon. Northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridge will result in deep layer shear of 35-40 kts. Forcing is rather weak, with perhaps an embedded disturbance in the northwest flow. CAMs show isolated thunderstorms developing in western Nebraska, probably supercells given the environment, which move south through the early evening but weaken by 03z before reaching southwest Nebraska. Other storms develop south of the area along the old frontal boundary, but the lack of a low level jet Thursday night will inhibit any northerly development. So for the moment the area appears to miss out on thunderstorm chances, though I would keep an eye on the potential supercells to the north which can persist longer than the models suggest in northwest flow. Temperatures will be on the rise with highs Thursday afternoon in the lower 90s.

As mentioned earlier, the ridge begins to amplify on Friday which will end the precipitation chances. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s for highs. Afternoon relative humidity minimums fall into the teens in Colorado, but currently light winds are forecast so not expecting any fire weather concerns.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be unseasonably warm for the county warning area (CWA). A persistent weak upper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the region Saturday through early next week. High temperatures are forecast to be in the high 90s to 100s Saturday through Monday. Tuesday is looking slightly cooler but high temperatures are still forecast to be in the 90s for the CWA.

Fire weather potential will be something to monitor for throughout the week. Currently, fuels are dry throughout the entire CWA. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the low 20s for the western CWA Saturday and slowly creep down to the mid to high teens through Monday. Afternoon wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible for the western CWA, but lowest RH values and strongest wind gusts are not forecast to coincide. A few hours of critical fire weather conditions could still be possible given the dry fuels and unseasonably warm temperatures.

Tuesday, a ridge building west of the Rocky Mountain will help transition our region to more of a northwest upper-level flow. We could see some showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday due to the increased upper-level support from a weak jet streak overhead. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 30-40% for the CWA. Models are in disagreement on where and when the ridge west of the Rocky Mountains will set up after Tuesday. If it ends up setting up over the Tri-State area, we could have another round of unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

MVFR ceilings have been slow to lift at both KGLD and KMCK, and it may take most of the afternoon before either terminal will return to VFR. There have also been isolated showers and thunderstorms in the area, but probability of directly impacting either terminal is less than 20%. Tonight, expect the low clouds to return with MVFR ceiling by around 06z and likely persisting through the remainder of the TAF period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop overnight and into Wednesday morning with currently around a 20% chance of impacting KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.