textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect in northwest KS through late Saturday morning.

- A few marginally severe storms are possible late Saturday afternoon, mainly in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties between 3-8 PM MDT. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph and dime to quarter size hail are the primary hazards.

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for portions of the area on Sunday, mainly along/west of Highway 25 where breezy southwest winds and low humidity could lead to rapid wildfire growth.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Southwest flow aloft continues over the central plains. Another weak embedded shortwave will bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area tonight with best chances east of Highway 25. Surface will be cool and stable, but there is some decent elevated instability to work with for parcels originating around 800- 750mb of up to 1500 j/kg. CAMs seem to be highlighting the northeastern part of the area (McCook to Norton) between 03-06z as the best location for any potential elevated storms, before they move northeast and out of the area. If any do develop, there will be a marginal risk at best for hail up to quarter sized. Otherwise, the main concern for tonight will fog. Southeasterly winds will be advecting more moisture into an already fairly moist environment with the fog developing by 06z by southeastern half of the area (south of Norton to Flagler line), then pivoting into eastern areas overnight with more of southwest wind developing in Colorado. The fog may be widespread and dense at times through about 15-16z Saturday morning. The moisture does look deep enough to have drizzle and perhaps some intermittent light rain in furthest east areas along with the fog. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s so not expecting freezing fog.

After the morning fog burns off, will see temperatures climb well into the 70s Saturday afternoon and even a few lower 80s. Another shortwave trough embedded in the southwest flow aloft will provide enough lift for widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The environment at peak heating will be characterized by weak to moderate instabilty (1000-1500 j/kg) generally east of Highway 83, and weak instability further west. However, the western areas will see increasing subcloud dry air and DCAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg. Deep layer shear will be around 25 kts in all areas. Latest CAMs show thunderstorms moving into the area from the southwest after about 21-22z from Colorado and into the remainder of the area through about 03z before dissipating with loss of surface heating. Both the HRRR and NAMnest suggest severe wind gusts may accompany the initial activity in western areas where DCAPE is maximized, with both models showing 50-60kts possible (up to 70 mph). The area still has not seen any recent rainfall (with the exception of Greeley and Wichita counties last night), so if winds of that magnitude are realized may also see blowing dust and localized dust storms with these storms. Some hail will also be possible, mainly as the storms get into the better instability in eastern areas late in the afternoon or early evening with perhaps up to quarter or half dollar sized. Gradual west to east clearing will occur Saturday night with no fog anticipated due to westerly component in surface winds. Low temperatures will range from the lower 40s in Colorado to the middle 50s in north central Kansas.

On Sunday, surface wind will be southwest resulting in dry and warmer conditions. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s. Afternoon relative humidity will drop below 15% generally west of Highway 25, including Colorado. Mean wind gusts are around 25 mph, so enough confidence for critical fire weather conditions to issue a Fire Weather Watch. Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along a surface trough just east of the area in the afternoon, close enough that need to monitor for any shift westward in later model runs since there will be a severe risk with those.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Southwesterly upper-level flow ahead of broad troughing across the Western United States appears favored Monday. Ensemble guidance indicates the presence of an 850-mb high pressure across portions of the Southeastern United States and back into Mexico and Baja California, which would favor southwesterly surface winds across the CWA. Warm and dry conditions are forecast Monday afternoon, with highs in the mid-70s to upper-80s, and relative humidities (RH) in the upper single- digits to low teens. With wind gusts across Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas forecast in the 25-40 mph range, critical fire weather looks to be a potential hazard Monday afternoon. NBM guidance shows over a 90% probability for wind gusts to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Eastern Colorado, and even a 30-40% chance up into Southwest Nebraska. Further, LREF guidance shows over a 50% chance that RH values meet criteria for the hazard across most of the CWA, with nearly a 100% chance across East-Central Colorado and far West-Central Kansas. Confidence that a Red Flag Warning will be needed continues to increase, and is highest across portions of Eastern Colorado at about 40%.

Upper-level troughing is still favored to the west of the forecast region Tuesday morning, though there is some uncertainty regarding the trough's eastward progression. A slower progression of this upper-level system would allow southwesterly surface flow to continue across the CWA throughout the morning and afternoon hours, which would promote further critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. However, a quicker progression of this system would favor a cold front to traverse the forecast region during the morning and afternoon, and potentially mitigate the threat for critical fire weather by reducing RH values across the area. Most GEFS members show the cold front already south of the forecast area by the early afternoon hours Tuesday, which would indicate a faster progression of the trough. EC members are slightly slower with the progression of the front, which could allow drier conditions across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas Tuesday afternoon. LREF guidance suggests about a 30-40% chance for this zone to experience relative humidities meeting criteria for critical fire weather Tuesday afternoon, alongside NBM guidance showing a 60-70% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is currently around 5- 10%.

Troughing across the Western United States looks to redevelop across the Western United States Wednesday due to a digging 500-mb low out of the Pacific Northwest. Ensemble guidance indicates that this upper-level pattern could exist through the end of the forecast period. Warmer conditions may be favored Wednesday afternoon downstream of this system, though a slower progression of Tuesday's system may allow northwesterly surface flow to remain across the CWA through Wednesday afternoon, promoting cooler temperatures. Mixed modes of wet and dry conditions may be experienced during the afternoon Wednesday, though persistence of the 850-mb high across the south would once again favor southwesterly winds across the area, and thus, the drier solution. Critical fire weather may continue to be a concern Wednesday and Thursday, with RH values forecast in the low to mid-teens Wednesday afternoon, and upper single-digits to mid-teens Thursday. Wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range may be experienced both days, particularly across Eastern Colorado. As troughing begins to move in over the forecast region Friday, a cold front may allow for cooler conditions going into the weekend. Forecast highs are currently in the upper-60s to mid-70s Friday afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

GLD: LIFR conditions associated with low ceilings and/or fog are expected to prevail through sunrise Saturday. Improvement will begin to occur an hour or two after sunrise (~14Z). Further improvement to VFR is expected a few hours later, during the late morning (15-17Z). Once low ceilings lift/scatter-out, VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period. Scattered showers and storms anticipated to develop in Colorado this afternoon could potentially affect the Goodland terminal during the late afternoon and early evening (~22-02Z), though.. confidence in thunderstorm development, location and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 06Z TAF issuance. SSE to S winds at 10-15 knots will increase to 15-20 knots shortly after sunrise (~14Z). Winds will veer to the SW and further strengthen to 20-30 knots w/gusts to ~35 knots during the late morning and remain breezy through the afternoon. Winds will back to the S and decrease to 15-25 knots Saturday evening, near the end of the 06Z TAF period.

MCK: LIFR conditions associated with low ceilings and/or fog are expected to prevail through much of Saturday morning. Improvement will begin to occur during the late morning (~16Z), with further/rapid improvement to VFR expected a few hours later, by early afternoon. Once low ceilings lift/scatter-out, VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period. SE winds at ~10 knots will veer to the SSE-S and increase to ~15 knots during the late morning (~16Z). Winds will further veer to the S-SW and strengthen to 20-30 knots during the early afternoon and remain breezy through sunset. Winds will back to the S and decrease to 15-25 knots Saturday evening, near the end of the 06Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ252>254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NEZ079-080.