textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms forecast to develop along the CO Front Range late this afternoon will track east toward the KS border this evening. A few storms capable of producing small hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible, mainly in eastern CO between 7-11 PM MDT.

- Another chance for storms Sunday night with a low risk for damaging winds.

- Severe chances likely return for early next week under northwest flow.

- Above normal temperatures through at least mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Upper ridge over the Texas Panhandle today will gradually migrate westward to the Four Corners by Tuesday night. This position will keep the Central Plains under zonal to northwesterly flow through the period with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Today and Sunday, with the ridge to the south and a zonal flow coming out of Colorado, convection originating over the mountains and Front Range will move east and reach the area during the evening hours. Storms will likely be weakening as they do so with the rapid decrease in instability near sunset. Nonetheless, they may still pose a marginal severe wind risk even in the decaying stages. Rainfall amounts look to be light, less than a quarter of an inch both nights.

Monday and Tuesday, will be transitioning back to northwest flow with a corresponding increase in deep layer shear. This will result in better organized updrafts and a severe risk both days for wind and hail. On Monday the primary storm initiation area will be southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. The mean flow around the ridge will take them east then southeast with time, which will place areas generally north of Interstate 70 in the most favorable region for severe storms. On Tuesday, storms will be initiating further south in northeast Colorado in the afternoon, then moving east to southeast through the evening. The severe risk will extend into most if not all of the area.

Temperature trends for the period will be above normal all days with highs well into the 90s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the upper 80s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances.

High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Friday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period.

Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chance then begins to taper off to 5-15% for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 423 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will move across the area overnight and into early Sunday morning. Brief gusty winds and reductions in visibility and ceilings will occur at both KGLD and KMCK. Sunday morning, a period of low ceilings may occur in the wake of the thunderstorms.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.