textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through the weekend. Return to more seasonable as the work week goes on.

- Multiple chances at precipitation next week with the first being Monday morning across northwest portions of the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Synoptic Overview: An upper level trough traversing the Northern Plains this morning will progress east across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes this afternoon.. temporarily suppressing/flattening an upper level ridge over the central CONUS. Meanwhile, a cut-off low located offshore the southern Pacific Coast at 06 UTC this morning will undergo a complex evolution (splitting into two distinct features) after meandering ashore central-southern California late this aft- eve.. the first [feature] of which is progged to gradually lift northward into the Great Basin (NV-ID) Sun-Sun night.. and the second [feature] of which is progged to lift ENE-NE across the Desert Southwest/4-Corners (Sun) and central Rockies (Sun night).

Today-Tonight: Synoptic subsidence in the wake of the progressive trough traversing the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will drive a modest (~1015 mb) inverted surface ridge southward into the Central Plains this morning, the leading edge of which will manifest as a northerly surface wind shift and effective cold frontal passage aloft (1000 to 2500 ft AGL). Expect 850 mb temperatures ~14-19C at 21 UTC this afternoon (compared to 20C at 21 UTC Friday), yielding cooler (albeit still above-normal) highs in the lower 70's.. and overnight lows in the mid 30's to lower 40's. Virtually all guidance indicates that 30-40 knot northerly low-level (850 mb) flow initially accompanying the 850 mb front will rapidly and substantially weaken by mid-late morning (16-18 UTC) -- and that surface winds may (perhaps) gust to 15-25 mph for a brief period prior to weakening and becoming variable this afternoon.

Sun-Sun night: Downstream of the complex cut-off low over the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West, and.. in the wake of the recently departed progressive trough (traversing the Northern Plains and Great Lakes today).. the central CONUS ridge will rebound/amplify and a low-level southerly return flow regime will ensue, as modest high pressure slowly shifts east toward the MS River Valley and a surface trough develops in the lee of the Rockies (from NM to MT). Expect clear skies and breezy (~15-25 mph) SSE-SE winds.. with highs similar-to, albeit a few degrees cooler than, today.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Starting the extended period Monday morning a surface low is forecast to be in place across northeast Colorado bringing the potential for light rain across northwestern portions of the area. Due to wet bulb zero temperatures remaining warm would be surprised at this point if snow were to occur. GEFS-Mean spread however still shows quite a bit of discrepancy with the position of the low as it may end up being a bit further to the east closer to the Tri-State border area which would make the precipitation a bit more widespread. The chances of that appears to be 5-10% at this time. Precipitation chances would end late morning across the area as the low quickly broadens out as it moves off to the west. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast on the backside of the low. The magnitude of how breezy continues to be worked out with the GFS showing a stronger low which would lead to wind gusts of 40-50 mph; the NAM is weaker with negligible winds of 10-20 mph and the ECMWF is in between. The EC-AIFS however is interestingly similar to the GFS on strength and positioning which does increase my confidence a bit in the stronger winds. High temperatures for the day remain forecast in the 60s.

A continued active pattern is forecast to continue through the remainder of the extended period with a gradual cooling trend to more normal temperatures. Guidance continues to show a stronger system moving towards the area. Unfortunately tons of spread on positioning and timing remain with ensembles. A further north system would favor precipitation for the area versus a more cut off low across the southern Plains would lessen rainfall chances as the area would be more prone to being dry slotted. Should rainfall occur with this system it would favor Thursday into early Friday morning but currently not seeing any potential hazards. Ensembles have fallen off of the snowfall potential with this system as well at least for the 00z run of the LREF. The previous runs did have snowfall potential so will be interesting to see if this was an anomalous run or not. Nevertheless confidence is higher in near normal temperatures and increased cloud cover across the area.

Another system is forecast to follow later in the week in to the weekend as well reinforcing the near normal temperatures across the area. Even more spread is still seen ensembles with positioning and timing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals, with ceilings confined to cirrus at or above ~20,000 ft AGL. Light WNW winds will shift to the NNW or N and increase to 10-15 knots in assoc/w an effective cold frontal passage within a few hours after sunrise (12-15Z). A brief period of northerly LLWS (~40 kt at ~2000 ft AGL) is possible a few hours on either side of sunrise this morning at the McCook terminal. North winds -may- gust up to ~20 knots for a short period late this morning.. before weakening and becoming variable during the early afternoon (by ~20-21Z). Light/variable winds will prevail through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.. shifting to the SE by sunrise (~12Z) Sun morning, at the end of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.