textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms are possible during the late afternoon and evening hours today and Thursday, mainly in eastern CO and nearby KS-NE border counties. Low confidence in storm development and coverage, similar to previous days.

- Near average temperatures today and Thursday followed by a warming trend, with highs peaking in the mid-upper 90's on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 235 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge over western North America, centered over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest and extending northward to the Canadian Rockies, will persist through the short term period. The Tri-State Area remains situated on the eastern periphery of the ridge and southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies, in modest NW flow aloft.

This Morning: Ongoing sub-severe convection approaching the I-76 corridor in northeast CO at 0830 UTC this morning could progress southeastward into northwest Kansas around sunrise this morning. Confidence is low with regard to whether or not said convection will persist / how far downstream it will progress. An automated observation site (K1LW) northwest of Haxtun, near the CO-NE border, measured WNW winds sustained at 35 mph gusting to 49 mph with these storms at 2:08 am MDT this morning.

Today-Thursday: Mainly a persistence forecast. The Tri-State Area remains in a weak synoptic forcing regime characterized by modest NW flow aloft and weak low-level flow. In such a pattern, diurnal convective development is generally expected in climatologically / topographically favored areas such as the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. Convection allowing guidance tends to perform poorly in weak forcing regimes; this has certainly been the case the past few days, and there is no reason to suspect that this will change (during the short term period), especially when late night/early morning convection may alter environmental conditions, further muddying the forecast waters. A few severe storms capable of producing ping pong ball size hail and 70 mph winds are possible late this aft-eve, mainly in eastern CO and nearby KS-NE border counties. NW flow aloft will weaken (to some extent) on Thu, as the aforementioned ridge expands eastward over adjoining portions of the central High Plains. Expect a severe weather potential similar to today, albeit with relatively weaker vertical wind shear and a relatively lower potential for large hail.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1010 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, high pressure continues to remain parked across the SW CONUS. Guidance suggests that a shortwave moves off of the northern Rockies. The better forcing is currently forecast to remain to the north which puts precipation potential a little in question but currently counties along and north of Highway 36 currently appears to have the relative higher potential.

Into the weekend a bit more pronounced trough is seen moving into the area from the Intermountain West. This is forecast to shift the high further south across the southern Plains. This may lead to a bit more active pattern across the area. The question will be how far south will the trough sag and if it will allow vorticity maxima to move across the area which currently appears to be the only forcing at this time as the better jet dynamics are currently forecast to remain off to the north. A similar pattern then may continue throughout next week as well but the high elongates some and has some indications of shifting a little east. If this does occur then an increase in monsoonal moisture may develop as this would then become a classic pattern daily showers and storms.

As for temperatures for the period. As long as the high pressure remains nearby the area then temperatures would remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s. If cloud cover were to remain thick enough then temperatures would have to be knocked down around 5-10 degrees but it will be dependent on precipitation coverage through the day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 250 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the 12Z TAF period at both terminals. Thunderstorms approaching the I-76 corridor in northeast CO at 0825 UTC this morning could potentially affect both terminals an hour or two on either side of sunrise (earlier at GLD, later at MCK), if said storms persist for that long. A PROB30 group for thunderstorms has been introduced to both TAF sites early this morning. Storms are possible at either terminal late this afternoon into tonight, though.. confidence in storm development and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 12Z TAF issuance. Light SE, ESE or variable winds are expected throughout the TAF period at both terminals. Gusty/erratic winds can be expected with any storms, should storms be present in vicinity of either terminal.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.