textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday.

- A few flurries possible Friday afternoon in Colorado, and sprinkles and flurries possible in the entire area Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

A strong upper ridge off the west coast of the CONUS will meander through the weekend, with downstream northwest flow over the central CONUS. Embedded weak waves in the flow will produce little, if any, in the way of measurable precipitation chances, but may result in afternoon flurries and/or sprinkles. One such wave on Friday will bring a chance for flurries to northeast Colorado in the afternoon. While TQ indices are better across southern Wyoming and northern Colorado, they do reach minimal cold pool thresholds in northern Yuma county, where CAMs are showing some very light QPF (trace to .01"). Wet bulb zero heights are solidly in the snow category, but with afternoon temperatures in the lower 40s any snow reaching the ground will be melting on contact. Impacts will be limited to just some minor visibility restrictions in flurries. Otherwise, the rest of the area will see some increasing clouds in the afternoon with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. A somewhat similar setup occurs on Saturday afternoon with another shortwave moving through. TQ indices increase but wet bulb zero heights are more in the mixed category of rain or snow. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s, so may lean more towards sprinkles as opposed to flurries for Saturday. In addition, northwest winds will increase in western areas as the upper trough axis passes, with the light precipitation/virga potentially helping to mix stronger wind gusts to the surface. Mixed layer winds are in the 40-45kt range west of highway 25 including all of northeast Colorado, which is where the best potential for the higher gusts will be in the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with a shallow cold air mass settling into areas east of Highway 25, potentially as far west as the Colorado/Kansas border though confidence is low on western extent. Temperatures on the cold side of the front may only reach the middle 30s with light easterly winds, while further east in Colorado with a westerly wind temperatures may reach the upper 40s. TQ indices still favorable for some possible afternoon flurries/sprinkles, but models not showing anything at this time. The shallow cold air is forecast to erode and lift out Sunday night with southwest winds at the surface. Low temperatures will range from the middle teens east of Highway 83 which will be in the colder air the longest to the lower 20s in Colorado.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 145 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

The overall pattern does not change much in the long term period, with a general northwest flow over the central CONUS over the west coast ridge. The series of weak embedded shortwaves continues, with a weak looking wave on Monday and a stronger one on Tuesday. The operational GFS does show some light snow and stronger winds Tuesday night, but has little to no support from any of the ensembles at this time, so will take a wait and see approach. More shortwave energy comes through Wednesday and Thursday, and all of the ensemble averages, GFS, ECMWF and Canadian, showing some light snow potential, mainly for areas north of Interstate 70. Amounts, however, are very light at less than a half inch at this time. GFS continues to suggest some wind potential as well, but less so from the other models.

As for temperatures, there will be a warm up on Monday and Tuesday with westerly winds, highs in the 50s both days, possibly around 60 on Tuesday. Then cooling off again for Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1010 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

IFR ceilings will persist an hour or so into this afternoon at both KGLD and KMCK before clearing. The remainder of the TAF period will be VFR with diminishing surface winds after sunset.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.