textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy freezing fog through this morning west of Highway 25 and northeast Colorado.

- Large temperature gradient across the area today, with colder temperatures generally east of Highway 83/23 and milder temperatures in Colorado.

- Milder temperatures and some fire weather concerns to start the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

Low clouds and patchy freezing fog will persist through this morning. The fog will be confined to western areas, west of Highway 25 and northeast Colorado, on the leading edge of the shallow cold air mass. However, as winds turn to south and eventually southwest this morning, the downslope component will be working against the fog and dense fog, if any at all, should be patchy. The low clouds begin to move out as those southwest winds spread over the rest of the area this afternoon. However, there will still be considerable high clouds through the day. Temperatures tricky once again, but have generally leaned toward the colder side of guidance, especially in eastern areas, but confidence is low and temperatures could be a bit warmer if clouds have less influence. The high clouds will diminish tonight with lows in the 20s and light west winds. HRRR suggests patchy fog along/ahead of the retreating warm front/surface trough in eastern areas towards 12z, but confidence is low due to the unfavorable westerly winds. If fog does develop, it would be patchy in nature.

Monday will see a return of northwest flow and mild temperatures as the cold air mass moves out. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Some fire weather potential may develop in the afternoon in Colorado and the Kansas/Colorado border area. Wind speeds increase in the morning in those areas with gusts up to 30 kts possible through 18z, but then models show winds decreasing in the afternoon. Relative humidity drops into the teens as the winds are decreasing, casting some doubt on whether the two parameters can occur at the same time for fire weather. For now, will wait and see if those winds can persist a little longer before addressing with any products. Monday night will be mostly clear with light winds and lows in the 20s.

A shortwave trough comes through the northwest flow on Tuesday, but lacks moisture and no precipitation is expected. Temperatures warm a bit more with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Fire weather may once again be a concern, mainly in western areas, with afternoon relative humidity minimums dropping into the teens and gusty northwest winds possible as the upper shortwave axis passes. Models show gusts to around 30-40 mph possible if full mixing to 1 km can be realized as suggested by mixing height forecasts. Lows Tuesday night will be around 30.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 121 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

Monday night and into Tuesday, a trough is forecast to slide through the Northern Plains and bring a weak front and surface low through the area. With the main part of the trough well north of the area, warmer temperatures in the 60s remain forecast for the area. We still may be able to see some 70s if it the trough moves quickly and not too far to the south. We are still watching for the possibility of some critical fire weather conditions around the Colorado border as the system allow wind gusts to creep closer to 25 mph while the warmer temperatures drops relative humidity into the teens.

Wednesday, another trough is forecast to move into the Plains, but dip lower towards the Central Plains. This is forecast to bring a more potent system through the area. While dry air is forecast to keep precipitation chances low, there is some concern for strong winds. There is a 25% chance that wind gusts could exceed 50 mph for counties around the Colorado border. For now, this looks reasonable based on ensembles as there are scenarios that help and hurt how strong the winds will get. The 500mb spreads suggest that the trough could be farther north (lowering impacts), and/or that it could move through faster and earlier in the day (increasing the chances for winds). Otherwise, temperatures should be in the 60s before the front moves through.

Thursday through Saturday, an overall zonal pattern is forecast which would favor seasonable/mild conditions. However, similar to earlier in the week, some upper troughs may be able to develop in the flow and bring more systems into the area. So while the current forecast calls for mild conditions to return, this may change once it becomes apparent on which smaller troughs can influence the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1003 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

At KGLD...IFR expected to prevail through Sunday morning due to low ceilings. Patchy fog around 12z may reduce visibility to less than 1 mile for a few hours. A return to VFR is expected around 18z with southwesterly surface winds scouring out the low clouds and fog. VFR then expected to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.

At KMCK...MVFR expected to prevail through Sunday afternoon due to low ceilings. Can't completely rule out a period of IFR ceilings, mainly this morning. A return to VFR is expected around 21z with southwesterly surface winds scouring out the low clouds. VFR then expected to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.