textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Light freeze likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible in western areas.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Upper ridge begins to build in from the west today. The axis will be over the area on Saturday followed by southwest flow on Sunday as it continues to move east. At the surface, sprawling high pressure centered over the High Plains today will move south, with a lee trough developing in its place on Saturday which moves little through Sunday. No precipitation is expected through the period under the ridge. Winds will diminish today as the surface high builds in from the north. Return flow on Saturday combined with the deepening lee trough in Colorado will result in breezy south winds gusting up to 35 mph by the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible in northeast Colorado as temperatures there warm into the mid 70s and relative humidity drops into the teens. The same area will see low humidity Sunday afternoon but winds will be lighter and elevated fire weather conditions are more likely than critical.

Temperatures will be cool once again today with highs in the mid 50s, but warm over the weekend into the 60s and 70s. A light freeze is likely across the entire area Saturday morning with a hard freeze possible (40% probabilities) in northeast Colorado and west of Highway 27 in Kansas and Nebraska. Low temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Southwest flow aloft via longwave ridge is anticipated on Sunday to kick off this forecast period. Said ridge, centered over the western Great Lakes region, should propagate fairly quickly to the east over the course of the day Monday. Upper-level winds become zonal through Monday. Guidance currently projects a second ridge to develop on Tuesday across the the Plains region, settling the flow pattern back to southwesterly through the middle of next week. This, all ahead of an upper-level low that is expected to move across the SW CONUS through Wednesday. Guidance does outline a brief shortwave early Monday which should move out of the County Warning Area (CWA) by the time the evening comes around. Not much is expected to come from this trough passage other that a wind shift. A weak surface low is likely to form over eastern Colorado Sunday, moving into western Kansas Monday. This feature also should not do much other than pressure changes and wind shifts. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick up a stronger surface low that may set up near the Tri-State area late Wednesday.

Forecast guidance anticipates conditions to be quite dry across the CWA through early Wednesday. 5% or less PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) are favored throughout the region. This may not last though as an upper-level low, mentioned in the above section, paired with low-pressure at the surface could bring the next decent rainfall chances to our region late Wednesday. Guidance is currently not very confident on widespread precipitation, but a general 15-25% PoPs is forecasted at this point in time. Surface analysis/QPF doesn't show much accumulation for our area right now; nonetheless, still worth monitoring as this event draws closer.

Moving on to high/low temperatures for the coverage area, a slight warmup is expected across the board as we rebound from well-below average highs. Temps in the low/mid 70s are likely Sunday and Monday, with a slight uptick to mid/upper 70s Tuesday then upper 70s/low 80s possible next Wednesday. With respect to overnight lows, Sunday morning is likely to be the coldest, with temps expected to approach the mid 30s. Lows will then gradually warm up above the mid 30s, with upper 30s/low 40s expected Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue this warming trend with low/mid 40s and then upper 40s/low 50s expected, respectively.

As for fire weather concerns, the potential for critical fire conditions will be low, but not zero. Relative humidity (RH) values are likely to reach the mid-teens (14-15%) in our eastern Colorado counties on Sunday. Meanwhile, surface winds over these areas should sit around 15-20 mph from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Going forward, RH values are anticipated as low as the upper teens west of US-385 Monday and Tuesday, but winds should be light and variable; thus, the fire weather outlook likely will be milder post-Sunday. For the rest of the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is to be expected with generally 5-15 mph winds. Winds will initially be from the south Monday, shifting to the north and east with the shortwave, then settling back to more of a southerly direction. Gusts are not likely to exceed 25 mph during this forecast period everywhere east of the Colorado/Kansas state line.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for both KGLD and KMCK. Winds are likely to remain from the north and around 10-20 kts, with gusts around 25- 30 kts, through the majority of the TAF period. Winds will likely decrease around 22-23Z, to around 5-10 kts as they begin to shift to come from the south. Still expect low level wind shear to continue through around 11Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NEZ079. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081.