textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures today and Tuesday, then cooling slightly on Wednesday, closer to normal.

- Dry conditions continue.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1108 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2026

The next couple of days will remain fairly mild as a heavily tilted ridge from the Pacific will stretch over the southern Rockies. This will give us a mild bubble in the upper-levels, as well as provide zonal flow over the Central Plains. At the surface, a cool front has moved through the CWA, leading to northerly winds, which may allow for some gusts up to 20-25 kts.

Despite the northerly flow, temperatures are going to warm into the 70s today across most of the area. Tomorrow will likely warm up very similarly as today, with a caveat. There is a 15% chance fog will form east of U.S. 83 tonight and linger into the mid morning Tuesday. Locations that do see this fog, or even some stratus, will likely remain in the 60s tomorrow. If fog is able to form, there will likely be patches of dense fog that reduces visibility to 1/4 mile or less. The majority of the fog is only forecast to reduce visibility to 1-5 miles. Overnight lows through the period are forecast to remain above freezing, mainly in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday evening into the overnight hours, an upper-level trough will be pushing over the Northern Plains. This will bring a cold front through the CWA, but with no moisture advection before the front, precipitation is unlikely. As it stands, there is a 5-10% chance of light precipitation Wednesday morning for about 3 hours east of U.S. 83. No accumulation is expected. This cold front will make Wednesday the coolest day of the period. Highs are forecast to be capped out in the 60s. Overnight Wednesday is the best chance to see temperatures drop below freezing. Eastern Colorado has a 25% chance for the freezing temperatures with warmer temperatures to the east. During this time, a large ridge, or even closed high, will build over the Four Corners region, reinforcing our calm pattern.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 211 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2026

GEFS and EC ensemble guidance are consistent with northwesterly flow overhead at 500-mb Thursday morning as a strong 70-90 kt jet streak pushes troughing deep into the Eastern United States, and ridging begins to move in overhead. Post-frontal northerly winds are forecast to be in place during the morning and afternoon hours Thursday, aided by a surface high centered in Southern Canada. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with the coolest temperatures along and east of a line from McCook, NE to Gove City, KS where northerly winds will have the greatest impact. It should be noted that NBM guidance shows a large amount of uncertainty in high temperatures along and east of Kansas Highway 27, where the difference in 75th and 25th percentile forecast highs are between 10 and 15 degrees. This zone has an 80% chance or greater for wind gusts less than 15 MPH, and a 40-60% chance of less than 10 MPH. When paired with a lack of cloud cover due to subsidence across the region, highs in the 60s may be experienced across the east as well. No hazards are expected Thursday, though some areas may drop to or just below freezing overnight.

Ensembles support ridging overhead at least on Friday and Saturday, as two troughs come into the Western United States. Weak southerly surface flow is likely through most of this period. Highs are forecast similar to Thursday both days, with slightly higher temperatures in the east on Saturday. A large spread in the NBM high temperatures continues to exist, with 75th and 25th percentile forecasts differing by up to 20 F on Friday. However, considering that ridging is in place alongside weak southerly flow, temperatures in the 60s or higher are currently favored both Friday and Saturday, with some areas potentially able to reach into the 70s depending on how much solar heating takes place.

Sunday is where the forecast begins to become a little more uncertain, specifically regarding the two troughs coming in from the Western United States. One is a weaker shortwave ejection from the Desert Southwest, and another is a deeper longwave from the Pacific Northwest. The southern system gets relatively muted in the ensembles, while deterministics have shown variability in the timing, intensity, and track of the system. Additionally, the most recent EC ensemble run shows the northern system ejecting in front of the southern system. This could be supported by the fact that all ensembles show large amounts of variability on the trailing edge of the southern system, which would indicate a potentially slower progression. What is a bit more certain is that cooler, wetter conditions are expected as these systems come through. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows around a 25% chance across the area that greater than 0.1 inches of rain occurs between Monday night and Tuesday night, which could be experienced earlier if one of these systems progresses into the area Sunday or early Monday. Additionally, NBM guidance suggests that highs in the 40s and 50s would be most likely with these systems. However, if these systems do progress slower, conditions similar to Thursday through Saturday will continue. When looking at precipitation guidance from the LREF, only about 15% of the members show precipitation occurring Sunday, alongside 75% showing temperatures above 60. This would suggest a favored slower progression where warmer and drier conditions continue to prevail through the weekend. Around 40% of the members show precipitation Monday, and over 50% Tuesday, suggesting that these systems are most likely to move in around the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1006 PM MST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.