textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight, becoming more widely scattered through the rest of the week.

- Limited wind and hail threat with stronger storms through the week, but overall severe risk will be low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Upper ridge now centered over the southeast CONUS will move very little during the period. Southwest flow will continue over the Rockies and adjacent plains. Embedded waves will result in daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Best chances appear to occur tonight, while coverage diminishes somewhat for the middle of the week as it becomes more difficult to identify upper forcing. Also appears to be some drier air moving into western areas on Thursday as the lee trough moves to about Highway 27, resulting in dew points in the 40s and decreasing precipitable water. Shear and instability show some minor day to day variations, but will be sufficient for a marginal severe risk for wind and hail with any stronger updrafts which may develop, although severe coverage appears it will be very limited.

Temperatures show little variation in the period and will continue to be above normal. Some triple digits will be possible in northwest Kansas Wednesday and Thursday closer to the ridge.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Friday through Monday, the upper level ridge continues to be persistent over the Southern United States with some amplification towards the north over the weekend before stalling again. A strong low pressure over the Pacific Northwest coast may allow some small embedded shortwave troughs to pass through as well as southwesterly flow from Baja California. This is forecast to bring in chances for showers and warmer temperatures in the beginning of the period. Diurnal heating looks to be the main driving force for these showers. Friday afternoon, Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) has 15% chance for showers over the northwestern and 20% chance over the eastern portions of the County Warning Area (CWA). There is high confidence (70%) that it will be sub-severe as there are very low values of CAPE and an unfavorable wind shear profile.

Throughout the remainder of the period, chances for rain will be low as the upper level ridge starts to amplify to the north. PoPs have a chance for showers at 15% in the northern half and 10% in southern half of the CWA.

Temperatures will start out in the mid to upper 90s and are expected to decrease towards the low 90s by Monday. However, there is low confidence (30%) that temperatures Sunday will be in the mid to low 90s as NBM 75th to 25th percentile spread starts to increase with a 5 degree difference and could potentially keep temperatures into the upper 90s. Uncertainty grows due to the possible showers later in the weekend and Monday could lean to the cooler side. Heat index values may reach into the 100s on Sunday if highs reach into the upper 90s as moisture is being fed from both the southeast and southwest with dew points being in the low 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For KGLD, weak storms and showers are forecast to move into the terminal at the beginning of the TAF period causing MVFR conditions. Winds are forecast to stay from the south at 7-15 kts, with occasional gusts 25-30 kts if a storm moves over the terminal. In the late morning expect VFR conditions lasting throughout the day. Winds are forecast to stay mainly from the south and under 12 kts, with an occasional gust up to 25 kts. There is a low chance of another round of storms Tuesday afternoon.

For KMCK, low confidence in the showers/storms from the south to make it to the terminal this morning, opted to do a PROB30 for light rain and lower ceilings causing MVFR conditions. Winds will largely remain from the south and under 12 kts for most of the day, along with VFR conditions. There is a low chance of another round of storms Tuesday afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.