textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Front moves early this morning, bringing cooler temperatures, isolated gusts up to 60 MPH, and patchy blowing dust.

- Above normal temperatures and fire weather concerns continue next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 154 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

This morning, a cold front from the incoming low pressure system is entering the CWA. This will provide a fairly rapid wind shift to be coming from the north, and increase wind speeds. Sustained winds of 15-25 kts, frequent gusts up to 35-40 kts, and isolated gusts up to 50 kts are expected with this front. The strongest winds being in the eastern CWA. While RH values will have climbed above critical criteria, this sudden wind shift will lead to erratic fire behavior for any ongoing or smoldering fires. By 9Z, RH values are forecast to have rebound enough to eliminate critical fire weather RH parameters. With that in mind, the Red Flag Warning is still on schedule to expire at 9Z. We could also see some patchy blowing dust with the stronger wind gusts overnight. There is also a ~10% chance of isolated sprinkles and low stratus following the front, around sunrise.

Today, an 850 mb high coming out of the northern Rockies will keep winds from the north-northeast gusting around 20-30 kts, gradually weakening as the day progresses. This will bring in cooler temperatures and slightly increasing dew points. Combined, this will keep RH values above 25%, eliminating any fire weather threat.

Tonight, our flow aloft will have become slightly more zonal, with a weak shortwave pushing through. This is leading to a 10-20% chance of some light scattered showers. This potential is heavily limited by the 850 mb high moving over the same area at the same time, likely negating the 500 mb vorticity and leading to no precipitation. Overnight lows will be cooler, dropping into the 30s.

Monday, as the high exits to the east, we will get southerly return flow. The return flow will prompt WAA and allow temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to low 70s. The flow from the exiting high looks to be strong enough to produce sustained winds in the 15-25 kts range and gusts up to 30-40 kts. Thankfully, RH values look to remain around 20%, so the threat for critical fire weather conditions is low. The breezy conditions are likely to persist overnight as surface pressure rises look to continue until around 6Z. These southerly, breezy conditions and partly to mostly cloudy skies will work to keep temperatures in the upper 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday remain forecast to be under the influence of an upper ridge that is positioned over the southwest. With low level flow generally from the south or west, we should see warm air advection and warm back up. Temperatures in the 80s and 90s are forecast with Wednesday being the warmer of the two days. With current GEFS 850mb temperature spreads including 30C, there is the chance that Wednesday could have very similar temperatures to this past Saturday. The forecast highs in the 90s are already near or above the record high temperatures for the day. There are low concerns for critical fire weather conditions due to the very dry conditions. Similar to this last week though, the broad surface pressure gradient and the upper ridge are forecast to generally keep winds on the lighter side. But we'll have to watch and see if parts of Eastern Colorado can mix deeply and reach winds above 20 kts.

A system is still forecast to move through the area late Wednesday and into early Thursday. Ensemble members are still showing some variance in timing, but 70-80% of the members have the system passing around 3-9am Thursday. With the early passage of the front, the concerns for dust is fairly low. Temperatures are also forecast to be lower with 60s and 70s on Thursday and 50s and 60s on Friday/Saturday. There is the possibility that temperatures could be cooler if the upper trough drives the system more to the south. Highs could then be in the 40s with lows in the teens and 20s. For now, ensemble 500mb spreads are favoring a faster progression east over more of a dive to the south. In either scenario, we'll have to watch for critical fire weather conditions with winds a bit breezy behind the front and dry conditions forecast to remain. The main inhibitor is that cooler temperatures should keep relative humidity above 15%.

Going into next weekend, the current suggestion in ensemble spreads is that we will keep the roller coaster ride rolling with another ridge moving in, followed by another upper trough. This would allow us to warm to well above average again before another fall. That being said, there is some suggestion the next wave could just push through and prevent an upper ridge from really getting set up and warming us up next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 426 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Once the stratus that's trailing our early morning cold front exits, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KGLD and KMCK through the period. Before 18Z, winds at both sites will vary between 350-010 with gusts around 30-40 kts, weakening later into the morning. This evening, winds will gradually become southeasterly and there is a 20% chance of some MVFR stratus early Monday morning. Additionally, scattered light rain showers are possible after 6Z, but pose little risk to flight category impacts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record High Temperatures are possible on Wednesday, March 25th.

Goodland, KS: Record high of 85 in 1907, current forecast is 90.

Hill City, KS: Record high of 88 in 1956, current forecast is 91.

McCook, NE: Record high of 88 in 1910, current forecast is 89.

Burlington, CO: Record high of 83 in 1998, current forecast is 90.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.