textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect for counties generally along and south of I-70 Thursday. A cold front is forecast to move through, increasing winds to around 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Dry conditions are also forecast to persist.

- Saturday could bring more critical fire weather conditions to the area with breezy winds and continued dry conditions.

- Low potential for active weather early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Current observations still show an upper ridge over much of the Western United States and Plains. That being said, it is beginning to deamplify and shift a bit to the south as an upper trough over the northwest begins to push into it. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure is set up over the High Plains. The forecast remains on track for this upper trough to continue to push east and south. As it does so, it is forecast to condense the low and begin shifting to the southeast while bringing some cooler air in from the north. The timing still has the center of the low over the area just before sunrise and then south of the area just before noon. For the morning hours, this should lead to clear skies and winds around 5 to 15 mph that slowly shift to out of the northwest. By the late morning and early afternoon hours as the front passes through, winds should begin to pick up behind it as the colder air mass moves in. The current forecast is for northerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. For locales north of I-70, the cold air mass trying to move in should hold temperatures in place or lead to a slight cool down with highs forecast in the 70s. The rest of the area to the south is forecast to warm into the 80s and maybe even the 90s before the cold air will be able to push in. With this, very dry conditions and breezy winds are forecast to be in place which is why a Red Flag Warning was issued. There is still about a 15% chance that the front speeds up and keeps relative humidity more in the 20% range. Even so, the persistent dry conditions we have had along with the stronger winds will still lead to higher fire danger today.

This evening and into tonight, winds are forecast to remain strong in the wake of the front with gusts up to 50 mph possible for the first few hours after sunset. As such, the Red Flag Warning does last until 8pm MT / 9pm CT. As the low continues to shift south and the colder air mass moves more into the area, the pressure gradient should weaken and winds slowly begin to lower. Some mid-level moisture is also forecast to move over the area which could lead to a few showers overnight. It is unlikely that most of it reaches the ground due to the dry air in place in the lowest few thousand feet. But it wouldn't be unreasonable to see a few drops of rain or few snowflakes as temperatures drop to near freezing with the cold air advection.

Friday, the area is forecast to be under the colder air mass at the surface. Aloft, we are forecast to go under northwest flow with the ridge trying to reamplify in the west and broad troughing in the east. With the area under the high pressure, tomorrow is forecast to be more of a spring day with highs in the 50s and winds around 5-15 mph.

Saturday may bring another day with fire weather concerns. The high pressure and colder air mass are forecast to begin shifting off to the east as the upper troughing does. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the Front Range. This setup should strengthen the pressure gradient and again allow for winds around 15 to 25 mph. The thing is that there may not be much to mix down as the heights gradients may be weaker and keep wind gusts only slightly higher than the surface winds. There is also the chance the surface low extends into the area and weakens winds for western portions of the area. No product has been issued yet given the uncertainty with the winds along with some questions of how hot/dry it will get. But this will be monitored closely in upcoming forecast packages.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The upper ridge over the southern plains will finally move east on Sunday with a faster progressive pattern developing across the western CONUS. Several shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the area, with occasional chances for precipitation. For Monday and Tuesday, the shortwaves will be rather weak and rain chances correspondingly low. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible either day, but with instability generally less than 500 j/kg severe storms are not anticipated. Nonetheless, in the hot and dry environment cannot completely rule out a locally stronger wind gust with inverted-v soundings. Instability decreases on Wednesday, but the upper wave may potentially be stronger and bring better chances for precipitation. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensemble averages all show snow amounts of less than one inch through Wednesday night and QPF generally less than a tenth of an inch. The operational run of the GFS does continue to show a stronger system and higher rain and snow amounts, but confidence in that solution is low at this time.

Critical fire weather will be a concern each day Sunday through Tuesday. On Sunday, the entire area will see afternoon relative humidity minimums of 10-15%, lowest west of Highway 83, which is also where westerly winds will be gusting 20-30 mph. On Monday, critical conditions may be confined to Colorado, as humidity increases further east with a surface low moving through and more northerly winds. On Tuesday, west to southwesterly winds return and humidity drops to 15-20% across the entire area, with gusts of 30-40 mph also forecast. A cold front moves through Tuesday night, ending the risk for critical fire weather conditions.

The temperature trend for the period will see much above normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the 80s, then cooling into the 50s and 60s on Wednesday behind the next front.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 426 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both sites with clear skies to start the day. Later cloud heights are forecast to be above 5000ft. The low level wind shear that has been present around 200-300ft should be ending as the front and upper wave near the area. Winds are forecast to start below 10 kts, but shift during the morning to be more out of the north/northwest around 20 kts. There could be times through the day where the winds lower back to 10 kts, as the main bulk of the winds is forecast after 00Z. After 00Z, winds should be around 20 kts with gusts to 30-40 kts until about 06Z. Winds should then lower through the night. There is a 15% chance for clouds to move over KGLD with ceilings around 2000-3000ft between 06-12Z. The forecast currently has the cloud deck well west towards the Front Range.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Today, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded into a Red Flag Warning for counties along and south of I-70. The cold front is still expected to move through early this afternoon, though the low pressure system itself should move through during the morning hours. With this, winds should shift from out of the south, to out of the west/northwest, to out of the northeast through the morning. Winds should increase through the day to have speeds around 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. The worst of the winds is forecast to occur closer to sunset with gusts up to 40 mph. Be careful of any weakening of the winds during the afternoon hours as we likely will not be done with the worst of the winds. There is also a 15-20% chance the low broadens instead of shifting, which would keep winds weak during the afternoon hours. This all being said, winds should begin to lessen and relative humidity improve after 8pm MT / 9pm CT.

Friday, lower concern for fire weather as a broad high pressure across the area should keep winds around 5-15 mph. Cooler temperatures should also keep RH above 25%.

Saturday, we may again see critical fire weather conditions as the high pressure pushes east and a low pressure system develops along the Front Range. While the sustained winds may near 20 mph, gusts may struggle to be much more beyond that. Guidance is currently suggesting the winds above the surface may be similar in speed as the upper pattern is forecast to be broad northwest flow. That being said, it wouldn't take much of a change for higher gusts to become a possibility. Will also need to see if the low broadens over the area and weakens the winds.

Little to no precipitation remains forecast the next few days with the only chance being overnight tonight for a few sprinkles, maybe showers.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041- 042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None.