textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend today and Monday.

- Breezy SW winds expected across portions of the area on Monday, mainly east of Hwy 27 where sustained winds ~25-35 mph may gust to 45 mph during the late morning and early-mid afternoon.

- Scattered storms possible Monday aft-eve. A severe storm capable of producing brief, localized wind gusts up to 65 mph cannot be ruled out, mainly east and south of Colby, KS.

- An early morning cold frontal passage will bring much cooler temperatures to the area Tue-Tue night. Wed morning lows may dip into the upper 40's in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Overview: An amplifying ridge over the Southern Plains will keep the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies north of the Tri-State Area today. SW flow aloft will overspread the region on Monday, as the aforementioned ridge shifts east across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.

Today-Tonight: Expect a warming trend as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Southern Plains and surface high pressure over the Dakotas/Northern Plains (and the associated surface ridge extending southward into the Central Plains) shifts east toward the Mississippi River Valley, though.. ongoing elevated convection in central KS this morning may temporarily reinforce the surface ridge and broken/overcast stratus will attenuate insolation, delaying airmass modification.. especially in northeast portions of the area, where cloud cover is more likely to linger into or through the afternoon. Expect highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80's in Red Willow/Norton counties to 80's and lower 90's elsewhere, warmest south and west of Goodland. Precipitation is not anticipated today or tonight.

Monday: Glancing DPVA associated with a potent upper level wave lifting ENE across the northern Rockies late Sun night will foster the development of a lee cyclone in northeast CO Monday morning. A tightening MSLP to 850 mb height gradient on the eastern periphery of the lee cyclone will lead to breezy to strong SW winds over portions of the Goodland CWA, mainly east of Hwy 27 in northwest KS where forecast soundings indicate 30-38 knot SW flow within and throughout a fairly deep mixed layer (surface to 7,500 ft AGL), suggesting sustained winds ~25-35 mph with gusts up to ~45 mph. Winds will decrease from west to east during the day as the lee cyclone broadens into a surface trough that extends eastward over northwest KS. Locations east of Hwy 83 (Oakley, Hill City) are more likely to see breezy to strong winds persist through the afternoon. High-res guidance suggests that low-level convergence along the aforementioned surface trough will support the development of scattered convection during the afternoon, mainly east and south of Goodland. A severe storm cannot be ruled-out, mainly east and south of Colby where low-level moisture and instability will be relatively more favorable and downdrafts enhanced by evaporative cooling will encounter 30-35 knot lower tropospheric flow (more momentum to transport to the ground). Separately, high- res guidance suggests that diurnal convection developing on the CO Front Range and Palmer Divide (geographically/climatologically favored areas) will progress downstream into portions of eastern CO and western KS during the late afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Tuesday morning, ensembles show three 500-mb features that drive weather across the forecast area: a high across the Southeastern United States, a trough across the Western United States, and broad troughing across portions of Southeast Canada. A shortwave lifting across the Midwest would be associated with northeasterly surface flow across the forecast area, setting the stage for cooler conditions through the duration of the long term period. Surface highs Tuesday are currently forecast in the mid to upper 70s, but lower percentiles of the NBM show that highs as low as the mid to upper 60s can't be ruled out. Temperatures are favored to remain lower than recent weeks Wednesday and Thursday even though southerly flow would generally be favored between the high across the southeast and trough across the Western United States. This would be caused by continued easterly to northeasterly surface flow from a strong surface high to the northeast of the forecast region, and potential cloud cover and precipitation from convergence across Kansas. Currently, surface highs are forecast in the mid 70s to lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures could reach a little higher than the current forecast depending on the northerly extent of the southerly flow, and whether any solar heating will be allowed to develop.

As mentioned before, precipitation is favored to occur Tuesday through Thursday. Tuesday, all areas in the forecast area have at least a 25% chance or greater of receiving more than 0.1 inches of rain according to NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance, with areas along and east of a line from Oberlin, KS to Tribune, KS showing a 50-75% chance. Most of this precipitation is expected to be along the cold front in the area, and is not favored to be convective in nature, as LREF guidance shows an 80% chance or higher across the forecast region that surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) will remain below 1000 J/kg. Convergence across Kansas from southerly flow meeting easterly flow would continue to support precipitation Wednesday and Thursday. NBM 24 hr guidance shows Wednesday to be the better day for precipitation, with a 50-75% chance across nearly the entire forecast region for greater than 0.1 inches of rain. Also, there may be a better chance for convective activity Wednesday, as LREF guidance shows a 40-45% chance of surface CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg between Kansas Highways 25 and 27. GFS and EC soundings show sfc-6km shear between 20 and 35 kts, which would suggest that most thunderstorms would be sub-severe, with perhaps a storm or two that could produce winds up to 60 mph. Confidence in severe storms occurring Wednesday is around 5% or less. Precipitation is not favored to be convective Thursday, as instability looks to decrease again.

The trough across the Western United States looks to be slowly moving toward the forecast area during the duration of the long term, though it is not entirely certain when the trough will move in. Ensemble guidance mutes this feature by Friday morning. Additionally, GFS and EC deterministics continue to show this wave as a weaker one, which would indicate most of the uncertainty is in association with the timing of the trough. As long as the trough remains west of the forecast area, conditions similar to Tuesday through Thursday would be more likely. However, conditions may cool a little more once the wave moves over the region and northerly flow reestablishes itself. NBM 25th percentile solutions and lower show highs in the mid 70s or lower Friday and Saturday in association with this trough moving overhead.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

GLD: MVFR ceilings are expected to deteriorate to IFR by sunrise, with further deterioration to LIFR possible shortly thereafter, ~12-14Z. Guidance suggests that low ceilings will quickly lift and dissipate during the late morning (~16-18Z). While VFR conditions are expected to prevail during the afternoon, IFR-LIFR ceilings are likely to develop after sunset and persist overnight. Light ESE to SE winds will increase to 14-18 knots this afternoon and persist through the evening.

MCK: VFR ceilings (3400 ft AGL at 0830Z) are expected to deteriorate to MVFR by sunrise with further deterioration to IFR possible after sunrise (~12-14Z). MVFR ceilings may persist throughout the day. Ceilings are likely to deteriorate to IFR or LIFR after sunset and persist overnight. Light SE or ESE winds this morning will increasing to 12-17 knots this afternoon and persist through the evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.