textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures but drier and breezy with elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns.

- Warming back up Thursday through Saturday. - Fire Weather Watch for the entire area Thursday. Elevated to critical conditions possible Friday and Saturday.

- Windy and colder Sunday with a chance for rain and snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A cold front is currently moving through the area as a surface low moves to the southeast out of SW Kansas. Breezy winds occurred with this front but have weakened some across northern portions of the area as the pressure gradient has let up some. Am forecasting another surge of winds to occur around 12Z or so as another trailing front moves through the area. A band of snow has set up across northeast Colorado and is currently forecast to impact mainly Yuma county but could affect the Tri-State border area closer to around 10Z or so. Minimal snow accumulation remains forecast with this activity.

Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to continue through the day as cold air advection is forecast to occur for the majority of the day time hours. High temperatures have trended a little cooler with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Much lower dew points into the single digits are forecast to advect in during the afternoon hours. Do have some concerns that even drier dew points could mix down to the surface as mixing heights are forecast to be around 6000-8000 feet. Elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns are present with the dry conditions and the winds. I did contemplate a Red Flag Warning due to the concern for the drier air to mix to the surface. Opted to hold off due to a slightly cooler trend with guidance for temperatures which would make the event even more marginal. The cooler forecast temperatures also brings some uncertainty as well as to how hot a fire could get. The cooler temperatures are also keeping GFDI in the "High" category which typically acts as an additional nudge. With all of this said, did opt to hold off a product for today due to confidence in widespread 3+ hours of critical conditions only being around 30-40%; confidence in an hour or two of critical is around 60-70%. A surface moving into the area is forecast to end the winds west to east across the area before situating itself across the the CWA during the evening leading to light and variable winds.

Thursday morning the high pressure gets shoved out of the area by a surface trough which is forecast to shift winds to the southwest allowing warming to occur. Depending on how quickly this occurs will be the variable as to how low temperatures fall as southwesterly winds promote steady to rising temperatures. West-southwest winds are forecast to continue through the day leading to another warm day for the forecast area with highs in the 70s to perhaps even some low 80s. The warm temperatures are forecast to lead to critical fire weather conditions across the area as winds increase. The strongest winds are forecast to be along and north of Highway 36 where part of a mountain wave breaks off and increases the 700mb flow. Current forecast has around 45-50 mph winds across Yuma and southwest Nebraska but the 00Z NAM indicates that this could actually set up a bit further south as well into northern Kit Carson, Cheyenne (KS) and possibly northern Sherman county. The NAM also indicates a stronger 700mb jet where wind gusts of 50-55 mph would be a bit more common along with a rogue 60 mph wind gust. Confidence in at least one wind gust of 55+ mph winds is around 35-45% at this time. Fire Weather Watch remains for the area as the potential remains for numerous hours of critical fire weather conditions across the area, but with the favored area for the most rapid spread due to the winds along and north of Interstate 70. Another cold front is forecast to move through the area Thursday night shifting winds to the north, currently not seeing any increase in the winds with the front at this time.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Will manage one more day of warm and breezy conditions on Saturday before a brief pattern change. Best combination of low humidity and gusty winds will once again be over western areas where critical fire weather conditions will be possible. NBM means show west to southwest winds gusting to 35 mph or higher and relative humidity of less than 15% west of a McCook to Goodland line, with eastern areas more marginal with both parameters. High temperatures will climb well into the 70s if not 80s with the downsloping help.

Shortwave trough will dig into the central plains Saturday night and Sunday, bringing abruptly colder temperatures, windy conditions and a chance for rain and snow. Models have trended stronger and further south today, increasing the precipitation chances. While not a closed upper system, it still has the potential for some light snow accumulations (high end percentiles showing an inch or two possible) as well as strong and gusty northerly winds (higher percentile wind gusts currently in the 40-60 mph range). High temperatures may struggle to reach the 40s on Sunday and lows Sunday night will be in the teens. Since it is still several days out, confidence in the details remains low at this time.

Monday and Tuesday will see a return to a dry northwest flow downstream from a building ridge over the western CONUS. Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal on Monday in the wake of the earlier system, but will warm back to much above normal on Tuesday as the upper ridge nudges east across the Rockies. NBM means show gusty northwest winds on Tuesday afternoon and relative humidity around 20%, raising the possibility of fire weather concerns. However, will need to see how much precipitation falls over weekend, since that may impact fuels.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A cold front is moving through the area leading to breezy winds gusting to around 30 knots. A period of MVFR to IFR ceilings is forecast to occur for each terminal, first at MCK then closer towards 12Z for GLD. Winds are forecast to remain breezy during this time, although an intermittent period of lighter winds may occur. VFR conditions are forecast to return mid to late morning still with breezy conditions however through sunset Wednesday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for COZ252>254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ079>081.