textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week.

- Eastern Colorado may see some weak showers and storms this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

- Better storm and shower chances return on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Today is the first full day of our new pattern. We have a 500 mb high setting up over the Four Corners region extending a ridge to the east-northeast over the Central Plains. At the same time, a low is sitting over the eastern CONUS and eastern Pacific giving us our first Omega blocking pattern of July! This pattern generally leads to warm and generally dry conditions, however isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms may occur. These storms would generally be sub-severe, but can lead to strong, gusty winds and dry lightning, making them an issue for fire weather. This pattern looks to persist through midday Tuesday, a short-lived Omega block, when a low over the northwestern CONUS flattens us back into a more zonal flow, at the 500 mb level.

Temperatures today through Tuesday look to warm into the 90s across the area with maximum apparent temperatures staying within a few degrees of the air temperature. Lows look to gradually warm through the period from the 60s to mid 70s. This is due to a 850 mb ridge sitting over the Mid and Southern Mississippi River Valley while the Omega pattern exists. This will lead to generally southeasterly low level and surface flow through the period, providing a slow, but steady, increase of moisture to at least the eastern 2/3 of the CWA. Additionally, this should prevent winds from being southwesterly across the CWA, which would increase temperatures an additional 5-10 degrees from down-sloping.

As far as fire weather concerns, RH values are forecast to remain above critical levels, dropping into the upper teens briefly in eastern Colorado each day. However, each day we are expecting the winds to become slightly more gusty, likely seeing gusts up around 30-35 kts Tuesday afternoon. Once again, winds will largely be from the south-southeast and dry lightning will be a concern.

Regarding convection, this afternoon a weak 700 mb convergence zone near the Palmer Divide looks to allow some isolated storms to fire. As these storms progress, they look to move east into the far western CWA and then decay, not exiting Colorado. We are not expecting severe weather with this convection. Monday's convection potential is extremely similar with the only notable difference being it may not enter the CWA.

Tuesday late afternoon into the evening, as the ridge weakens over the CWA, an 850 mb low coming out of the Northern Rockies is expected to sweep a cold front over the CWA. This will lead to our next decent chance at storms. These would be moving in from the northwest, potentially impacting the CWA overnight. Most likely hazards with these storms will be winds in the 40-60 kts range, and hail up around 0.5-1.5 inches. The wind may lead to blowing dust, creating reduced visibility. We will keep a close eye on these hazards going forward.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Starting the extended period on Wednesday, high pressure begins to build in over the southwestern CONUS with semi zonal flow over the region. On the northeast periphery of the high pressure guidance suggests that a shortwave will move off of the Cheyenne Ridge and potentially southeast into the CWA during the afternoon and evening. ECWMF suggests that a weak 500mb jet with northern portions of the area in the left exit region of said jet will be in place would also help with the potential for some showers and storms across the area. Based on current placements of these features think that Hitchcock down through Graham and on east would be most favored for the potential of a developing overnight MCS as the low level jet increase. Severe weather could also be possible with damaging winds looking to be the main threat as storms cluster together but a initial hail threat could also be on the table as well as storms form.

Thursday is forecast to see another threat for showers and storms as well driven by a sagging weak cold front through the afternoon hours. Guidance also suggests that a 500mb shortwave will accompany the front and there is also further upper level support as a weak 250mb jet moves across the Rockies. CAPE and shear are currently forecast to be a little better than Wednesday and further west which suggests that severe could be possible. GEFS Mean Spread still shows quite a bit of variability with the front so the current rainfall probabilities in the forecast may change some if the front which looks to be the main forcing slows down.

Friday, through the weekend and into next week there is very good agreement for a large high pressure system to develop across the western CONUS and spread over the Plains. If this were to occur then hot temperatures are forecast to be in place especially if a near 595 dam sets up over the region. This would support the potential for 100+ degree temperatures. Thankfully current dew points are forecast to be in the 40s to low 60s across the area which would help keep the heat indices close to or below the air temperature. However there is the potential for a prolonged period of hot to very hot temperatures for the area. Precipitation chances would also dwindle as well due to the subsidence of the high pressure if it is indeed centered on top of the CWA.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Winds will favor a southeasterly direction. KGLD is likely to see gusts around 20 kts in the afternoon and again tomorrow late morning. KMCK may see some gusts around 20 kts, but it looks to be too occasional to add a from group for.

**KGLD VISIBILITY: Parts are on order, there is no estimated return to service at this time. Until then, amendments for visibility should not be expected for KGLD.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.