textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures today, then cooling slightly on Thursday and Friday to closer to normal.

- Areas of fog east of Highway 83 Thursday morning. Fog chances may return for both Friday and Saturday mornings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

An amplified ridge over the western CONUS to start the period will slowly move east, with the ridge axis over the Central High Plains by Friday. At the surface, a cold front currently in the Dakotas will move through as a backdoor front late tonight and Thursday morning. Easterly upslope winds and moisture pooling along the leading edge of the front will result in a band of low clouds and fog, expected to move into areas east of Highway 83 between 12-15z Thursday morning. Dense fog will be possible until it burns off by around 18z. The front will continue to make its way west through the forecast area through Thursday afternoon. Low clouds and fog may redevelop Thursday night through Friday morning with easterly upslope winds in the shallow post frontal air mass. Surface winds will turn southeasterly on Friday and Friday night, which will maintain the moisture and high dew points. Given no change in the air mass, may see the fog and low clouds return Friday night, mostly likely in Colorado and the Colorado/Kansas border area where models currently show the highest relative humidity.

High temperatures today will be in the mid 60s, followed by 50s and 60s for Thursday and Friday behind the front, coolest in eastern parts of the area and warmest in Colorado. Low temperatures will be in the 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 243 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Ensemble guidance shows troughing moving in at 500-mb throughout the day Saturday, which would be associated with a surface low in Eastern portions of Colorado. Southeasterly winds are favored to be in place across the area due to this surface low, with NBM guidance suggesting these winds will sustain between 15 and 20 MPH, and gust to around 30 MPH. Surface high temperatures are currently forecast in the low to mid 50s in spite of the strong southeasterly flow expected throughout the day. This would be driven by a 75-90% chance of cloud cover above 50% based on LREF guidance, alongside a strong surface high in the Midwest recirculating cool continental air into the region.

Going into the evening hours Saturday, the likelihood for precipitation begins to increase, with PoPs (probability for precipitation) into Sunday morning up around 60% in some places. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows between a 50 and 65% chance that greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation falls across the forecast area between Saturday evening and Sunday evening. Rain is very likely to be the precipitation type, as LREF guidance shows over a 90% chance that low temperatures will not fall to freezing during this time period. Additionally, all members in the 00Z run of the LREF clusters on November 11 show no wintry precipitation occurring, an improvement from recent runs. Activity is forecast to remain widespread rather than convective, as CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values from the LREF show no more than a few hundred J/kg in the best scenario. Highs on Sunday are forecast in the mid 40s to lower 50s, with no hazards expected.

GEFS and EC ensembles are in good agreement that ridging will be entering the area Monday, as troughing once again moves into the Western United States off the Pacific Coast. Highs are forecast to return to around normal Monday and Tuesday (50s), with winds set to increase, particularly on Tuesday, as the trough approaches. NBM guidance suggests that winds on Tuesday have at least a 40% chance of sustaining above 20 MPH and gusting above 30 MPH across nearly the entire forecast region. Precipitation is not forecast again until Tuesday night, though 24 hr precipitation guidance only shows a 10-20% chance for greater than 0.1 inches. However, this will depend on the track and timing of the trough and surface low, which is relatively uncertain at this range. When looking at LREF members, ENS and GEPS members favored a more northern track, while GEFS favored a low coming through the Central Plains, which would be more supportive of precipitation in the area. As such, a northern track is currently favored at around 60%.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1029 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with cloud cover confined to scattered cirrus at or above 20,000 ft AGL. Light westerly winds this morning will shift to the NW and increase to 10-15 knots with occasional gusts to ~20 knots this afternoon. Winds will back to the WNW and decrease to 4-8 knots shortly before sunset (~22-23Z) and remain light overnight. Winds are expected to shift to the NNW and increase to 10-15 knots during the late morning (~16Z Thu), near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: There is a low probability (~30%) for a short period of LIFR conditions associated with dense fog and/or stratus near the end of the TAF period (~13-17Z Thu). Confidence is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 18Z TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with cloud cover confined to scattered cirrus at or above 20,000 ft AGL. WNW to NW winds at 10-15 knots will occasionally gust to ~20 knots this afternoon. Winds will weaken and become variable shortly before sunset (~22-23Z) and remain light/variable overnight. Winds may shift to the NE or E and modestly increase to ~10 knots late Thu morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.