textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog possible a few hours on either side of sunrise Friday morning, mainly along and north of I-70 in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska.

- Slightly below normal temperatures expected this weekend.

- Light rain expected Sat eve into Sun morning, mainly along and south of I-70. Rain chances/amounts increase with southern extent from I-70.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 421 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Overview: An upper level ridge over the 4-Corners (today) will slowly shift east across the Rockies (tonight) and adjoining High Plains (Fri-Fri night). Meanwhile, shortwave energy on the southern periphery of a robust upper low offshore the Pacific Northwest tonight will move ashore northern California (Fri) then track ESE across the 4-Corners (Fri night), central- southern Rockies (Sat) and TX-OK Panhandle (Sat night). An associated lee cyclone developing in southeast CO Saturday afternoon will track ESE into the TX Panhandle Saturday night.

Tonight-Friday: A transition to a southerly return flow regime will occur in this period as Canadian high pressure currently extending southward from Manitoba to Oklahoma and Arkansas slowly/gradually shifts east toward the MS River Valley. At 21Z this afternoon, a narrow NNW-SSE oriented corridor of stratus.. the western periphery of which was located along/near a line from Valentine to Lexington to Smith Center (the western fringe of a modified Canadian airmass).. persists over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas. Given that [1] clear skies and light winds will foster robust radiational cooling over northwest KS/southwest NE this evening/tonight, [2] that a cool, moist airmass (and pre-existing stratus) already lurk nearby this afternoon and [3] that easterly low-level flow will veer to the southeast by sunrise.. widespread stratus and/or fog development seems likely. While current runs of the HRRR and RRFS continue to suggest that low stratus and/or fog will develop over much of the area tonight and early Friday morning, model-to-model and run-to-run variability continue to obfuscate forecast specifics (e.g. stratus, fog, both?, coverage). While cloud cover could persist into the afternoon in some locations, guidance suggests that stratus will lift and mix-out by late morning to early afternoon in most areas. Expect daytime highs ranging from the upper 40's and lower 50's in eastern portions of the area to the lower 60s in eastern CO.

Friday night: SE low-level flow will strengthen as the MSLP to 850 mb height gradient tightens between lingering high pressure over the MS River Valley and surface pressure falls /lee trough development/ associated with shortwave energy approaching the central-southern Rockies. Strengthening SE low-level flow will lead to widespread stratus redevelopment Fri night into Sat morning. Breezy SE winds will likely preclude fog development across the majority of the area, except (perhaps) in northeast CO, where winds will be weaker.

Sat-Sat night: SE to SSE low-level flow will further strengthen as the aforementioned shortwave energy traverses the central- southern Rockies and a modest lee cyclone develops over central and southeast CO. While deep, pervasive cloud cover will significantly hamper diurnal heating/mixing, a tight MSLP-850 mb height gradient will, nevertheless, foster breezy SE winds during the late morning and afternoon. In eastern CO and nearby KS border counties, GFS forecast soundings indicate 30-35 knot SE flow in the lowest ~2,000 ft AGL, suggesting sustained winds ~25-35 mph and gusts to ~40 mph. Further east (E of Hwy 83, in particular), where forecast soundings indicate ~25 knot SE low- level flow, expect SE winds ~15-25 mph with gusts to ~30 mph. An unseasonably moist airmass and strengthening low-level warm advection over southwest KS will facilitate the development of widespread rain from south to north during the afternoon and early evening and persist overnight. Expect light precip (0.01 to 0.10") for the majority of the area, though locally higher amounts are possible south of I-70. Guidance suggests that heavy precipitation (> 0.50") will likely be confined south of the Goodland CWA.. over southwest KS and the OK Panhandle.. where modest MUCAPE will support deeper elevated convection.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 308 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Ensemble guidance continues to lock onto a upper-level low forming over the Central Plains early Sunday associated with a negatively tilted trough overhead and southeast winds, both aloft and at the surface. Medium confidence (50-60%) exists of a surface low pressure system south of the CWA (County Warning Area) on Sunday, but no front is expected. Meanwhile, a ridge starts to build in over the Mountain West which is likely to propagate across our area Monday through Wednesday. Guidance shows winds aloft from the northwest which become southwesterly as said ridge moves through. Model output starts to become a little more fuzzy late Wednesday but most ensembles are picking up another negatively tilted trough with a strong upper-level jet streak. This would theoretically bring stronger surface winds as early as Tuesday, lasting through Wednesday night. Guidance projects moisture advection to take place early Sunday with dew points forecast in the low to mid 40s.

Rain will be possible on Sunday morning as the low moves to the south of our CWA. PoPs are currently sitting around 20-40% through the afternoon hours. QPF is currently forecast somewhere in the range of 0.01 to 0.1 so at the very least some accumulating rainfall is probable. Chances for rain decrease substantially heading into Monday as that ridge takes control. 5% or less PoPs are expected through Tuesday. Rainfall chances present Wednesday as well with the aforementioned second trough. Confidence on any rain occurring a week from now is on the lower side at the moment with PoPs in the 15-25% range. Nevertheless, will need to be monitored going into the weekend as ensembles sort out any uncertainties with this trough. Moving onto temperatures for our region, a warming trend is expected heading into next week as the ridge builds upon the Central CONUS. Highs in the mid to upper 40s should increase to the upper 50s/low 60s by Wednesday. Morning lows are anticipated to sit around freezing on Monday and Tuesday then increase a bit into the 35-42 range on Wednesday.

Fire weather should not be a concern through early next week. Despite a recent dry spell, coupled with stronger stronger surface winds forecasted for the Monday-Wednesday timeframe, Relative Humidities (RHs) are not likely to be low. It should be on the wetter side with a system pulling in moisture from the southeast. RHs in the range of 50-80% during peak heating will be optimal for keeping fire weather at bay. Wednesday will likely be the driest day as temperatures warm and dewpoints remain stagnant but RHs shouldn't dip below 40%. As mentioned above, surface winds pick up through the middle of next week as a sustained 15-25 mph is forecasted. Gusts may reach 40 mph in some areas of eastern Colorado.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 430 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

GLD: Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS suggest an increasing potential for IFR or LIFR conditions assoc/w low ceilings and/or fog late tonight into Friday morning, mainly between ~08-15Z, with ceilings lifting and scattering during the late morning and VFR conditions prevailing during the afternoon. Light easterly winds will veer to the SE or SSE by sunrise and increase to 15-20 knots during the late morning to early afternoon.

MCK: Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS suggest an increasing potential for IFR or LIFR conditions associated with low ceilings and/or fog tonight and Friday morning, mainly between ~06-16Z, with ceilings lifting and scattering during the late morning and VFR conditions prevailing during the afternoon. Light easterly winds will veer to the SE or SSE by sunrise and increase to 12-16 knots during the late morning to early afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.