textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy conditions continue through the end of the week.

- Low chance of an isolated shower and thunderstorm this afternoon in Kansas.

- Hotter Sunday and Monday nearing the triple digits.

- Storm chances may return early next week as well as slightly cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Current observations show a large upper ridge over much of the continental United States, but there are a few embedded lows over the Plains. These lows are producing some little vorticity maximums that are trying to shift towards the area from the east. With some mid- level moisture available, there is a ~5% chance for one to three showers/storms to form in Northwest Kansas. If the precipitation did form, it should be sub-severe and short-lived. Otherwise, highs today remain on track to be in the low to mid 90s.

Tonight, clear skies are forecast for the area underneath the ridge. Winds should be light from the south, maybe southwest with lows dropping into the 60s. There is a 10% chance for fog, mainly in Gove/Graham/Logan counties as the southerly flow tries to bring in greater low level moisture. However, the chance is slim as the moisture has a long way to advect to get into the area, and the southwesterly flow may develop enough to try and bring in drier air instead.

For Friday, the pattern remains much the same with an upper ridge over the area. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s again underneath partly cloudy skies. A few showers/storms are possible again during the afternoon, but the chance is lower around 2% with mid-level moisture likely a little lower compared to today. Winds should remain from the south around 10 mph.

Friday night, winds should again lighten and skies clear. This should allow temperatures to again lower into the 60s. The fog chance is a bit lower with the better low level moisture likely to be further south from the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 231 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

For the weekend and into Monday, the upper ridge is forecast to amplify into the Northern United States and Southern Canada. With this, temperatures will likely be warmer with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. With little change in the surface moisture, there is the possibility for heat indices to reach the low to maybe mid 100s. This would likely favor eastern portions of the area. With skies likely clear due to the upper ridge and light winds, it may feel quite warm across the area.

For the mid part of the week (Tue-Thu), an upper trough is forecast to begin deamplifying the ridge as it slides southeast towards the Ohio River Valley. As it pushes through, a cold front should come through and lower temperatures a bit closer to the low to mid 90s. This could also allow for some storms to develop late Monday and Tuesday, depending on when the front pushes through. Right now, it looks unlikely to be severe with low instability and the nearby influence of the upper ridge. The main uncertainty with this time period is how far south and west the upper trough will dig in. Should it dig in closer to the area than currently forecast, temperatures could be in the 80s and we may see slightly higher chances for storms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites through the period. Winds are forecast to remain from the south/southeast during the day around 10-15 kts. Overnight, speeds are more likely to be around 5-10 kts with the winds potentially more from the southwest. There is a 5% chance for a quick shower/storm between 21-01Z. Severe weather is not expected.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.