textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog/Freezing Fog, some of which may be dense, this morning along and west of a Hitchcock to Wichita county line. A 10% chance of isolated freezing drizzle as well. May form a film of ice on bridges.

- Similar weather pattern continues next week with a warming trend and breezy winds Monday and Tuesday.

- Cooler weather will return after Wednesday with below normal temperatures for the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 606 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Made some tweaks to fog forecast for this morning as dense fog has formed along the cold front moving to the SSW impacting southern Logan, Wichita, Wallace and Greeley county over the next 2-4 hours. Another area of fog has developed across western Yuma and Kit Carson counties this area appears to be more driven my low dew point depression. Elsewhere where fog was previously mentioned still remains prone for patchy fog.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 114 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

A weak cold front is moving into the forecast area with stratus occurring just behind it. Have actually increased low temperatures for the night across the northeast as the cloud cover should help to insulate the surface and keep temperatures from falling to much. To the west of the stratus (mainly along and west of a Hitchcock to Wichita county line) could see some fog develop along and just behind the front as it continues to move to the southwest. Further west of that some subtle moisture advection is ongoing and is forecast to lead to additional fog development as well. Should any of this fog form then freezing fog will become a concern leading to slick roadways especially elevated surfaces. Some of this fog may be dense but as what the similar discussion mentioned the overall depth of the saturation level isn't overly impressive or very shallow. Do think there will be some isolated instances of dense fog however. Am continuing to see some weak surface omega around 1 microbars along with isentropic lift in the 285K level leading to some concern that freezing drizzle could be in store for counties mainly along the Kansas/Colorado state line and as far east as Highway 25 but that will be dependent on how far west the front does end up pushing. Using REFS ensemble soundings the majority of the members keeps the entire profile below the 0C line with the average being -0.7C so still very close; but overall further lowers my confidence in freezing drizzle occurring this morning. Confidence in freezing drizzle is around 10% so will leave out of the forecast for now but will keep a close eye on the potential.

Fog and stratus is forecast to move out of the area from west to east through the day and finally being out of the area by the late afternoon as a weak surface trough moves in from the west. Along the leading edge of the surface trough some additional lift around 750- 700mb may lead to some flurries or isolated light snow showers through the late morning favoring eastern portions of the area. Winds may become a little breezy across western portions of the forecast area gusting 25-30 mph. Highs for the day are forecast in the in the mid 30s across the east which are forecast to be engulfed in clouds for the majority of the the day to the mid 40s across eastern Colorado. Sunday night and into Monday morning appears to be tranquil as drier surface moisture again moves into the area. Some mid level cloud cover may develop with a weak disturbance but no impacts are anticipated at this time as low temperatures fall into the low 20s to upper teens across the area.

Monday, another surface trough is forecast to be co-located across northern portions of the forecast area with breezy sustained winds around 15-25 mph gusting 35 mph during the afternoon. This is also forecast to be start of a few days of above normal temperatures as highs are forecast in the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. Overall a tranquil mild day is in store for the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 114 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Starting the extended period Tuesday, mild temperatures continue for the area with highs in the 60s as winds become more westerly promoting downsloping. Winds however are forecast to become breezy to gusty with some gusts up to 45 mph during the afternoon. A strong clipper system across the northern Plains is forecast to send a cold front through the day through the mid to late evening hours on Tuesday night bringing a chilly start to the morning on Wednesday. However another surface trough is forecast to impact the area Wednesday afternoon with downsloping winds helping temperatures warm back into the upper 40s to low 50s. Some light precipitation may occur across northern portions of the forecast area with rain during the day when temperatures warm back above freezing and then becoming a rain/snow mix during the night. At this time the better forcing looks to remain north of the area so little to no accumulation is expected and any impacts would be minimal.

Late week, yet another clipper system is forecast to move across the northern Plains but be a little further south than the previous one and accompanying with it a stronger cold front. precipitation chances look a bit more optimistic with this system but still tons of discrepancies are seen between each of the members of the GEFS, ECWMF and ECMWF-AIFS on the amount of moisture present and the trek of a shortwave, with the GEFS a bit more optimistic on precipitation coverage due to more ensemble guidance moving the shortwave over the forecast area. However any snow output on the members that do produce precipitation looks to be light. This is also further supported by the 00Z run of the LREF with around a 30% chance for 0- 1 inches of snowfall. Much colder air is looking more and more likely with this system as high temperatures Friday may struggle to get out of the 20s across much if not all of the area as 850mb temperatures fall into the -8 to -12C range across the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 402 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Stratus continues for each terminal. Ceilings have not dropped as much as initially anticipated so have gone a little less aggressive until it can prove otherwise. MVFR to periods of IFR ceilings are still forecast with a 10% chance of ceilings falling to LIFR for either terminal. Latest guidance has backed off a little bit with the fog for either terminal but the potential still remains especially for GLD so will maintain the tempo as some new cloud development has begun near ITR so perhaps this is the start. Should fog develop for either terminal it would be freezing resulting in light icing. Stratus and any fog will end west to east through the day. Be aware for shifting winds as well as an eventual transition to southwesterly is forecast by the end of the period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.