textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of systems move through the region late this week and may bring precipitation. Moderate confidence on timing, but low confidence on accumulations at this time.

- Fire danger will increase through the start of the week. Small threat (<10%) for dangerous fire weather conditions on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 108 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

17Z Water Vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate broad, somewhat low amplitude ridge across the central CONUS. At the surface, lee trough was present in Colorado with sfc ridge over eastern KS and MO, resulting in relatively strong southerly winds across the area.

Weather will be relatively tranquil through Thursday, with aforementioned ridge bringing widespread subsidence aloft. Despite the shift of the winds to the north, overall airmass will continue to warm as ridge axis moves east over the Rockies. Somewhat concerned persistent high clouds may limit heating, but so far they have had only a minimal impact today.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 108 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Most immediate concern will be with respect to the ridge breaking down/shifting east across the plains as compact closed low system moves across the southern plains. Initially, strong area of warm air advection could provide enough lift for a few stray showers across the western zones on Thursday night. Not confident that ascent will be enough to saturate overall dry airmass. If showers do form, any amounts would be very light with little if any accumulation expected. Of more concern will be the Friday night into Saturday time period as a prolonged period of moisture advection and forced ascent will overspread the region. Operational models still showing a bit of uncertainty with respect to track and northerly extent of precipitation shield, but ensemble probabilities have been very stable keeping the highest probabilities of 0.1" of precipitation across southern KS. While not impossible that area will see higher precip amounts, agree with previous discussions that this is a rather low probability (30%).

Short wave ridging will move in behind departing system leading to increasing temperatures and overall dry conditions. This will persist through the weekend before large trough begins to develop across the west coast. While differences emerge with respect to how this trough develops and how small scale impulses will move through the pattern which will greatly impact specific hazards through the start of the week. With that being said, confidence is moderate (50%) that fire danger will be at near or critical levels by Tuesday due to warm, dry and windy conditions. If strongest wind scenario were to occur (<10%), dangerous fire weather conditions will be present across much of eastern Colorado and adjacent areas along with a few plumes of blowing dust.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 440 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to cirrus above ~12,000 ft AGL. South winds at 13-17 knots will decrease to 9-13 knots at sunset and further decrease to 5-10 knots this evening. Light winds will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will become variable overnight.. then gradually veer to the NE-ENE during the day on Thu.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to cirrus above ~12,000 ft AGL. South winds at 10-15 knots will decrease to 5-10 knots after sunset. Light winds will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will shift to the N around sunrise.. then gradually veer to the NE-ENE during the day on Thu.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.