textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from mid afternoon today through this evening. Some localized wind gusts of up to 50 mph will be possible in the afternoon and early evening.

- Another chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, with perhaps a marginal risk for a few severe storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts and hail up to quarter size.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest flow will persist over the Central Plains through the short term period. Embedded shortwave troughs will result in precipitation chances Thursday afternoon/evening and again Saturday afternoon/evening. Look to be between those two systems on Friday with subtle shortwave ridging and no precipitation.

For today, CAMs in generally good agreement that widely scattered showers and storms will develop after 22z generally north of Interstate 70, continuing to move southeast into the remainder of the area tonight. Moisture and instability will be lacking, with dew points in the 30s and only 100-200 j/kg of CAPE, these high-based updrafts will pose a localized risk for wind gusts of up to 50 mph. DCAPE is moderate at best, peaking at around 500 j/kg between 21-00z, then decreasing with surface cooling afterwards. Models do show the showers/isolated storms persisting well into the evening hours before gradually dissipating overnight. For the second chance of storms on Saturday, the environment will be marginally better for organized updrafts, with a slight increase in CAPE values to 500-750 j/kg and dew points in the lower 40s. DCAPE is significantly higher, up to 1500 j/kg, in the latest NAM. The shortwave trough also looks a little sharper and stronger in latest model depictions. So, thinking may see a marginal risk for a severe storm or two, with wind the primary hazard, but also possibly a low end hail threat. Timing looks to be the typical mid afternoon through early evening hours.

Temperatures show a gradual warming trend through the period, with highs in the low to mid 70s today and Friday, then the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday. Lows will be mostly in the 40s, perhaps a few upper 30s Saturday night with a slight cool down.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Sunday, highs cool down to the 70s and lows in the 40s. Winds remain calm throughout the day as well. For precipitation chances, the main focus would be on the system on Saturday and the timing on when it moves through the CWA and as we move into the new upper-level pattern on Monday.

On Monday, the upper level flow begins to transition into a ridge and will bring warmer temperatures. The high temperatures for the day will be in high 80s to low 90s, with lows in the low to mid 40s. There is a low chance (10-15%) of reaching 90 degrees. Winds look to be in the 20 mph range. However guidance does show some uncertainties with the probability of gusts above 25 mph is about 25- 50% depending on the scenario. One other thing to note unfortunately is the Relative Humidity (RH) values. Currently they are forecast to be in the low to mid teens. There is some uncertainty with how amplified the ridge becomes. Guidance has shown some possibilities of the ridge amplifying and also de-amplifying.

Tuesday, the highs are currently forecast in the low to mid 90s. If the ridge amplifies the probability of exceeding 90 degrees is about 30-50%. The low temperatures look to be in low 50s. Currently, RH values are trending to be in the teens. The winds are in the same scenario except with high confidence (30-60%) for seeing winds higher than 25 mph. The other concern for the winds is the location the NBM mainly shows the higher values over Yuma and Kit Carson Counties in CO. The LREF shows the higher values southeast portions of the CWA.

Wednesday temperatures remain to be warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low 50s. Wind gusts look to be in the 20- 30 mph range. One future feature to look at is a trough that begins to develop of the west coast of the US and could be our next system. This is seven days out so there is a solid amount of uncertainty and a lot can change.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening have a low probability (less than 20%) of impacting either terminal after 22z, with locally strong wind gusts near any thunderstorm.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001- 002-013-014-027-028-041-042. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ003-004-015- 016-029. CO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Thursday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079- 080. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ081.