textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend over the next few days; 70s look to return Tuesday, groovy.

- Breezy to gusty conditions look to return Wednesday behind a cold front. This could lead to blowing dust or precipitation.

- Increased concern for fire weather conditions Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1240 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Dramatic warm up will occur today with southwesterly downsloping winds at the surface and ridge aloft. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. There are some fire weather concerns as the mild temperatures and low dew points result in afternoon relative humidity minimums in the teens. Strongest winds will generally be across the northern tier of counties where gusts of 20-30 mph may be reached in the afternoon. Critical conditions look to be spotty in nature, but will not take much to tip it over to more widespread critical in those areas. Further south, winds will be lighter. May also see a few late afternoon or early evening virga/showers move into the northwest corner from Colorado with a weak shortwave and favorable TQ indices for shallow convection. Models show cloud bases of around 6-8 kft, so more than likely any precipitation will not be measurable. SBCAPE and MUCAPE are zero, so not expecting thunder, but these showers could locally enhance wind gusts. Virga showers should slowly fade through this evening with considerable high clouds through the night and low temperatures in the lower 30s.

Wednesday will be windy and continued mild, with high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Despite westerly low level winds, models show higher dew points compared to today, which result in afternoon relative humidity minimums of 20-25%, well above the 15% criteria for critical conditions. Northwest winds will increase in the afternoon with deep mixing. Gusts of 40-50 mph will be likely along/west of a McCook to Goodland to Cheyenne Wells line (probabilities 40-80%), with gusts of up to 60 mph possible in Yuma County (probabilities around 20%). Mixing heights are a little high by the time of peak wind gusts to support blowing dust, but may see a general haze develop especially in northeast Colorado by the afternoon. With an approaching weak shortwave in the northwest flow and favorable TQ indices once again, would expect to see widely scattered afternoon virga/showers develop. Models show cloud bases of 8-10 kft which will limit chances of measurable precipitation. There is also a modicum of MUCAPE available of 100-300 j/kg, so can't completely rule out dry lightning in this scenario, which would enhance the fire weather risk especially given the gusty winds should a lightning triggered wildfire start. Cold front will move through during the evening hours with winds shifting from northwest to north. Models have backed from the earlier high winds with the front, particularly the GFS. May still see some gusty winds with the front, but more in the 30-40 mph range through the evening hours before diminishing overnight. Scattered light rain showers will also accompany the front during the evening. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday will be dry and slightly cooler with highs in the lower 60s. Lower dew points in the post frontal air mass will result in afternoon relative humidity minimums in the mid to upper teens. However, winds appear to be generally light, and with a relative minimum in wind speeds at 500 mb over the area even gusts with mixing should be fairly limited. May see a sporadic gust to 25 mph at times, but not expecting significant fire weather concerns at this time. Lows Thursday night will be in the 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 150 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Northwesterly flow looks to be in place over the forecast region Friday. Surface winds look to be out of the west around sunrise, and become more northwesterly between the mid-morning and early afternoon hours. Warm, dry conditions are favored with this pattern. High temperatures are currently forecasted in the upper-60s to low- 70s, with relative humidities in the low to mid-teens across the CWA. Critical fire weather may be a concern Friday afternoon, as wind gusts across portions of Northeast Colorado look to reach the 25-30 mph range. NBM guidance suggests about a 30-40% chance for wind gusts in this range to spread into East-Central Colorado, Southwest Nebraska, and Northwest Kansas. However, a mixed layer about 1.5 km deep may exist, which could allow stronger winds to mix down toward the surface. In this case, stronger wind gusts may be favored. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed rests around 10-15%, with the highest chance in Northeastern Colorado.

An embedded shortwave trough in the upper-level northwesterly flow may pass the forecast region Saturday morning and afternoon. A surface high pressure is forecast to extend into the United States from Canada as this takes place. A cold front at the leading edge of this high pressure looks to pass through the forecast area sometime Saturday morning, which may allow a cooler period going forward. Forecast highs across the CWA still range from the mid-50s to mid- 60s, with the coolest of these temperatures expected across Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas. However, the NBM 75th-25th percentile difference for max temperature is in the upper-teens to low-20s across the area. This means high temperatures could be 5-10 degrees higher or lower than the current forecast, depending on the timing and strength of the incoming cold front. If temperatures are allowed to trend higher, critical fire weather could once again be a concern for Saturday. Relative humidities are currently forecast in the upper-teens to 20s, but would be lower if higher temperatures are experienced. Coverage and intensity of wind gusts are currently uncertain, though NBM guidance suggests most locations in the forecast region have at least a 20-30% chance of experiencing wind gusts 25mph or greater Saturday afternoon.

A southerly to southeasterly return flow may set up sometime between Sunday morning and Sunday night. High temperatures Sunday in association with this system are currently in the 40s and 50s, but could once again be 10 degrees higher or lower based on the timing of this wind shift, in addition to how the cold front impacts the area Saturday. Light rain and/or snow may also be experienced as this system passes through the forecast area, particularly Sunday evening through Monday morning. Coverage of precipitation is currently in question, but is only forecasted to be a few tenths of an inch at best.

A split flow looks to set up across the Western United States Monday through the end of the period. Northwesterly upper-level flow may be to the north of the CWA during this time, but embedded shortwaves still have the potential to impact the region. There is a bit more model divergence with respect to the timing, intensity, and location of these shortwaves at this point, but continued temperature fluctuations and precipitation may occur with any of these possible systems.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 404 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period, with light surface winds and considerable high clouds. A few high based virga/showers may develop this afternoon and persist into the early evening, but not expected to be impactful.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.