textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated/scattered storms will develop in northeast CO and adjacent areas of northwest KS ~2-4 PM MDT and move east across the area through this evening, some severe, ending by midnight MDT.

- The relative highest confidence for severe weather is in northeast Colorado and locations east and south of Oakley, KS where an isolated supercell capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado is possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Broad southwesterly flow continues across the Central Plains ahead of an upper low currently over southern Nevada. An embedded shortwave ahead of the main trough will move out of the southern Rockies and across the forecast area this morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop generally north of Interstate 70 by early this morning and move northeast and out of the area by 18-19z. The main trough axis will follow later this afternoon as it lifts out of the southern Rockies and across the area as an open wave. It will trigger scattered thunderstorms after 21z in areas that manage to see some clearing after the morning precipitation. There is a high degree of uncertainty when and where that clearing will occur, but models generally show that by 21z areas west of a Wray, Colorado, to Scott City, Kansas, line will be free of low clouds with weak instability developing (500-1000 j/kg). As the low clouds continue to retreat eastward, instability will increase across western and southern areas, especially south of Interstate 70, by 00-03z. Peak instability occurs during that time range at 1000-1500 j/kg. Deep layer shear also gradually increases through the afternoon with the approach of the upper trough axis and associated speed max, from 40-50 kts at 21z to 50-60 kts after 00z. While the instability is not particularly impressive, the magnitude to the deep layer shear should more than compensate, and would expect to see a few supercells in this environment. Models show discrete cells and updraft helicity maxima primarily confined to areas south of Interstate 70 in northwest Kansas, although there is an additional area in Yuma County where convergence near a developing surface low may also play a role. Large hail, damaging winds (and perhaps blowing dust in areas that do not receive morning precipitation), and a brief tornado may accompany any supercell, though the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) is less than 1, suggesting relatively weak tornadoes. The caveat to all of this will be the low clouds. If they persist longer or further west, instability and severe potential will be limited mainly to Colorado and areas further south in Kansas where clearing seems more certain. Storms are forecast to be east and out of the area by 06z. Patchy fog may develop in the wake of the storms overnight, but a cold will shift winds to the northwest by 12z which is not a favorable direction for fog.

Monday the area will be post frontal with northwest winds, temperatures in the 60s and dew points in the 30s. The deep moisture will be swept well east of the area so no severe storms are expected. However, as another trough digs into the southwest CONUS southwest flow will be reestablished over the plains. Another embedded weak shortwave will bring precipitation chances mainly to Colorado by the afternoon, with those chances trying to spread eastward into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska Monday night. Precipitation amounts are not impressive, with NBM and REFS means showing less than a tenth of an inch, highest amounts in Colorado.

Temperature trends for the period will see highs today below normal in the east (60s) but near or slightly below normal in the west (70s) depending on where the clouds can clear, then slightly below normal on Monday (60s). Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s tonight/Monday morning, then low 30s Monday night/Tuesday morning, when a frost or freeze will be possible.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Broad upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Central United States Tuesday morning, with embedded shortwave systems in this flow. This pattern is favored to last through Wednesday, with meandering temperatures and potentially some precipitation. Cooler conditions are possible Tuesday as a shortwave trough traverses the forecast region, with highs forecast in the upper-50s to lower-70s. Additionally, NBM guidance favors rain across much of the forecast region Tuesday, and suggests up to a 65% chance for over 0.1 inches of rain across portions of Southwest Nebraska and Eastern Colorado. Similar conditions may be experienced on Wednesday ahead of another shortwave trough, with high temperatures forecast in the mid-60s to lower-70s, and up to a 55% chance for over 0.1 inches of rain in Northeastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska. LREF guidance suggests that all areas in the forecast region Tuesday and Wednesday have less than a 10% chance of CAPE greater than 500 J/kg, but at least a 1 in 3 chance that CAPE will be present. As such, showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out either day.

Going into Thursday, the broader upper-level trough looks to be moved off into the Eastern United States, with Wednesday's shortwave system still extending into the Central United States. At the same time, a split flow looks to be established over the Western United States, producing another shortwave trough across the southwest. These two shortwave systems may slightly merge together, allowing troughing to remain overhead Thursday and Friday. Cool, wet conditions look to continue with this pattern, with highs in the upper-50s to lower-60s Thursday and Friday, and a 50% chance or greater of rainfall over 0.1 inches across most of the forecast area according to NBM guidance. Once again, LREF guidance does suggest CAPE will be present both days, but likely less than about 300 J/kg. Showers and possibly weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

A surface low pressure traversing Southern Canada Saturday may allow conditions to warm up a little bit during the afternoon. High temperatures are currently forecast in the upper-60s to lower-70s. Precipitation may still linger in the forecast area during this time, though chances currently appear lower at less than 20%.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

GLD: Ongoing IFR ceilings this morning will lift to MVFR during the early afternoon. Further improvement to VFR is expected to occur during the mid-late afternoon. Improvement will likely be short-lived, as guidance suggests that IFR to LIFR ceilings will rapidly return after sunset and persist through Monday morning. Slight improvement may begin to occur near the end of the 18Z TAF period. Light/variable winds will shift to the SE-ESE and modestly increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon. Winds will remain light through tonight, becoming northerly by sunrise. Breezy, 15-25 knot NNW winds will follow, after sunrise, and persist into Mon afternoon.

MCK: Ongoing IFR conditions are likely to persist through the majority of the 18Z TAF period. There may be a short window of opportunity for improvement to MVFR during the mid-late afternoon, however, deterioration to LIFR is likely to occur after sunset. Improvement to IFR-MVFR may begin to occur late Monday morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period. Light/variable winds will become ESE or E and modestly increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon. Winds will remain light through tonight, becoming northerly by sunrise. Breezy, 15-25 knot NW winds will follow, after sunrise, and persist into Mon afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.