textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through the duration of the work week, hottest on Thu-Fri when highs are forecast to reach the upper 80's to mid 90's.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon, primarily in Colorado, with relative humidity falling to 15-20% and southeasterly winds increasing to 20-30 mph by late afternoon.

- Locally gusty winds of 40-50 mph may accompany sprinkles and virga this evening.

- A marginal risk for a severe storm or two Thursday afternoon and early evening, primarily in Norton and Graham counties in northwest Kansas, with wind gusts of up to 60 mph and small hail possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Upper ridge axis will move across the area today and tonight with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. At the surface, high pressure will move into Missouri with southeasterly return flow into the central High Plains. Gradient winds will steadily increase through the afternoon, especially in Colorado where gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible by mid to late afternoon. Relative humidity minimums will fall to 15-20%, with elevated to locally critical conditions, most likely in Colorado due to the stronger winds. Confidence is just lacking for the relative humidity to reach 15% for 3 hours in Colorado, though it will be very close, and while GFDI will be extreme (80-90) winds may be just shy of the 35mph criteria as well to use GFDI. End result will be messaging for elevated fire weather conditions, primarily in Colorado. Tonight, remnants of Front Range convection will be moving across the area as sprinkles or virga (models show only zero or trace amounts). HRRR suggests these showers may be accompanied by wind gusts of 40-50 mph as they potentially mix down a strengthening nocturnal low level jet. The threat for gusty winds should diminish after 06z as the low level jet weakens.

As the ridge axis moves east on Thursday, zonal flow will become established over the Central Plains. There will be a weak embedded wave coming out of Colorado in the afternoon providing some synoptic scale lift. Surface pattern is a bit messy, but appears to be a trough or front located roughly along Highway 25/83 at 21z with cyclonic convergence in the wind field. Dew points to the east of the trough will be in the 40s and 50s while to the west they are in the 30s. REFS mean SBCAPE is very weak, less than 250 j/kg in most of the area at peak heating, with perhaps far eastern areas with the higher dew points up to 500 j/kg. Deep layer shear will be 25kts early in the afternoon, increasing to 30-35kts by 00z, highest again in eastern areas. Given the weak forcing, weak instability but adequate shear, cannot completely rule out a severe threat, but confidence is on the low side. CAMs do show isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing after 19-20z through about 03z before dissipating and/or moving east. Hazards will likely be limited to locally gusty winds with favorable DCAPE forecast up to 1500 j/kg, but the hail threat seems low given the forecast instability and lack of stronger forcing, though the increasing shear will compensate somewhat. Finally, afternoon relative humidity minimums will drop well into the teens across the entire area, but winds appear too light, generally less than 20 mph, for fire weather concerns at this time.

Temperatures will be above to much above normal, with highs in the 80s today and 90s on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 315 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

***Synopsis***

Friday morning, approximately zonal flow is favored to exist at 500- mb over the CWA, with a weak, broad trough across the Southwestern United States. This trough feature looks to slowly move toward the east, producing a surface low pressure across the South-Central Plains. The low may keep surface winds across the area out of the north through much of the afternoon Friday, but deepening of the low on Saturday as the trough makes its way across the Rockies looks to develop a strong southerly return flow. At the same time, another upper-level trough digging into the United States from the Pacific Northwest looks to undergo moderate to intense deepening, associated with low to mid-level cooling. This feature is favored to dig into portions of the Western United States Saturday and into Sunday. These two troughing features may be associated with active weather during the weekend. A cold front is favored to traverse the forecast region sometime Sunday night or Monday as upper-level troughing moves in overhead. Moving forward, an active pattern may continue as troughing once again sets up across the west.

***Friday***

Northerly winds across the forecast region Friday may lead to slight cooling from Thursday, though hot conditions still look to remain, with highs in the lower-80s to mid-90s. Dry conditions appear likely, with forecast relative humidities (RH) in the low to mid- teens across the area. Brief critical fire weather conditions may be a concern during the early to mid- afternoon hours, specifically across portions of Eastern Colorado where wind gusts are forecast in the 25-30 mph range. NBM guidance suggests a 40-70% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for the hazard in this zone, with the higher end of this range in Northwestern Yuma County. Additionally, the LREF is in support of lower RH values in Eastern Colorado, with nearly the entire area in a 50-70% chance for RH below 15%. However, there is a limiting factor for this hazard to occur, and that is that wind gusts look to drop off as the afternoon progresses. While confidence in drier conditions is increasing, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is only around 10-15% considering the weakening winds throughout the day.

***Saturday***

As the surface low continues to deepen and broaden into portions of Colorado, a strong southerly flow appears likely. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast in the mid-80s to lower-90s. GEFS 850-mb height mean-spread guidance is in strong agreement that a high will be located across the Southeast United States, with a low in Central Mexico. These features, along with the surface low across the South- Central High Plains, could work together to provide moisture in this southerly flow. Some areas in Northwest Kansas, particularly areas east of US-83, have greater than a 50% chance to experience dew points 50 degrees or higher. Additionally, a warm front may be present across Kansas during this time along with a dryline near the Kansas-Colorado border. However, the exact location of these features are in question, as LREF guidance suggests a spread of 60- 70 degrees in wind direction across the region Saturday afternoon and evening. Even so, surface CAPE values up to 2500 J/kg across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska can't be ruled out. GFS and EC model soundings suggest that 30-50 kts of 0-6 km shear are possible, which could support strong wind gusts and large hail. Confidence in a severe event Saturday afternoon and evening has increased, but is right around 10% at best.

***Sunday***

Severe weather may continue on Sunday as the trough from the Pacific Northwest digs southeastward, though critical fire weather may be added to the mix. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to take place somewhere across portions of Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas. GEFS 850-mb mean-spread guidance is in agreement with this assessment, placing a low across this region Sunday afternoon. This may introduce some southwesterly flow into the CWA, aiding in the development of a dryline. However, there is significant uncertainty as to where the dryline sets up, as represented by LREF 75th-25th percentile spread in dew point temperatures of 15-25 degrees across the region. Areas west of the dryline may see RH values as low as the mid-teens, with wind gusts up to 40 mph due to the strengthening cyclone. NBM guidance suggests most of Eastern Colorado has a 75-90% chance of gusts meeting critical fire weather criteria Sunday afternoon. This would suggest increasing confidence in Red Flag conditions behind the dryline. Ahead of the dryline, LREF 90th percentile guidance suggests 2000-2500 J/kg of surface CAPE can't be ruled out. GFS and EC model soundings suggest that up to 40 kts of 0- 6 km shear is possible, which would support severe weather again. Hazards from severe storms look to be strong winds and large hail. While uncertainty continues to exist regarding the positioning of the dryline, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed behind the boundary is about 20% at this time, with about 10% confidence of severe weather ahead of the dryline Sunday afternoon and evening.

***Monday/Tuesday***

As troughing moves over the area Monday, high temperatures look to decrease a bit into the upper-60s to upper-70s Monday, and mid-70s to lower-80s Tuesday. Precipitation may occur behind the cold front Monday, though LREF guidance suggests that most of this activity would be associated with light, widespread rain that is around 0.1 inches or less. Ensemble guidance appears to favor troughing to redevelop across the west around this time, which may indicate a continued active pattern.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface winds will increase from the southeast Wednesday morning with gusts 20-30kts through the remainder of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.