textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy to dense fog, potentially freezing fog, is forecast overnight into this morning in southwest Nebraska and adjacent counties in northwest Kansas.

- An isolated marginally severe storm is possible this afternoon in northeast Colorado with hail up to quarter size through early this evening.

- Potentially widespread light to occasionally moderate rainfall Wednesday night through Thursday for areas along and south of Interstate 70 in Colorado and Kansas.

UPDATE

Issued at 209 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 8 AM MDT/9 AM CDT/ for southwest Nebraska and adjacent counties in northwest Kansas as several locations were reporting 1/4 mile visibility at the top of the hour. Temperatures in the lower 30s will result in patchy freezing fog as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A rather complex upper pattern will be in place across the western and central CONUS this period with both jet streams active. The northern stream appears to be splitting over southeast Alaska, with one branch going over a western Canada ridge before diving southeast into the central CONUS, with the other undercutting the ridge into the Great Basin and interacting with the southern jet stream. Embedded disturbances in all of them are directed eventually to the central plains within a large area of confluence. The end result is that precipitation chances will continue. The other continuing theme is a lack of instabilty in the relatively cool and moist air mass. Both HREF and REFS means show SBCAPE of only 100-200 j/kg by this afternoon within an axis across northeast Colorado. Deep layer shear is lower than previous days, but still adequate at 30-40 kts, which might be just enough for an isolated updraft to produce marginally severe hail up to quarter size. DCAPE remains low so not expecting strong wind gusts. Colorado storms will weaken in intensity with the loss of heating early Wednesday evening as they move into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, but increase in coverage with a transition to more of a stratiform rain. This activity consolidates late Wednesday night through Thursday morning, with an area of light to even occasionally moderate rainfall from central Colorado into areas south of Interstate 70 in northwest Kansas, where up to a half inch of rain is forecast by model means. May see some weak instability develop Thursday afternoon on the northern edge of the main area of rain, generally in the Kansas and Nebraska border area, where a few thunderstorms are possible. But once again instability is weak at less than 500 j/kg so not expecting severe if they do develop. The light precipitation chances continue Thursday night, gradually favoring southwest areas as northern areas start to dry out.

Temperature trends remain below normal both Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 50s and 60s. Some models suggest that temperatures may struggle to get out of the 40s on Thursday along and south of I-70 due to the rain and cloud cover. Low temperatures will be in the 30s, with low probabilities of frost or a light freeze, mainly Friday morning in northern areas if they manage to see some clearing.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

We remain in a southwest upper-level flow for Friday, though weaker overall. Embedded shortwaves and weak instability will support showers and afternoon thunderstorms. PoPs peak around 80% across the southwest CWA, tapering towards the northeast as forcing weakens towards that direction. Temperatures remain unseasonably cool with high temperatures forecast in the high 50s to low 60s.

Going into the weekend, we transition to more of a ridge pattern. Expect mostly sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Saturday and 70s to 80s for Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours Sunday. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the the mid teens with gusts around 25 mph possible for the western CWA. RH values will likely change in response to showers and thunderstorms earlier in the week, but still something to monitor for as the week progresses. Sunday, a Rex blocking pattern is forecast to develop on the west coast with a ridge near the Canadian border and a low pressure system near California. Until this blocking pattern starts to move east, we will see fairly consistent weather for the remainder of the forecast period. Expect mild temperatures in the 70s and potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as several shortwaves traverse through the region. GEFS Ensemble members differ on when this pattern will move on, but it will likely move on after Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Main concern will be potential for fog overnight and early Wednesday morning at KMCK. Models fairly consistent in showing fog developing across southwest Nebraska near center of a surface ridge. Winds do turn to the southwest towards 12z which is an unfavorable direction for fog, but they may be too light to prevent development. The fog will quickly scour out by 14z as those southwest winds persist, with a return to VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon with a low probability (less than 20%) of impacting either KMCK or KGLD. Chances gradually increase through Wednesday evening, but confidence is not high enough at this time to mention in either TAF.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ002>004. CO...None. NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for NEZ079>081.