textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild Easter Day with highs around 70 and wind below 15 mph.

- Chances for precipitation start Monday evening, continues off and on through the week. Best chances are currently forecast towards the end of the week.

- Tuesday morning, a wintry mix is possible, leading to a low chance of minor impacts.

- Elevated fire weather risks return Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Today through tomorrow, northwesterly flow aloft will dominate, becoming more zonal as we approach tomorrow night. Temperatures today will warm to around 70 with winds looking to remain under 20 kts, limiting the fire weather threat. Overnight temperatures look to be slightly warmer, cooling into the low to mid 30s. Tomorrow, an 850 mb low over Colorado will cause easterly moisture advection, and keep temperatures capped in the 60s to low 70s.

Winds will also be picking up Monday afternoon and lasting into the evening. Easterly winds gusting up around 25-30 kts are currently expected between 0-6Z Monday evening. Locations that see these stronger winds from the east will have the greater chance at seeing overnight precipitation. Also, depending on how far north the surface low sets up, winds in the southeastern CWA may be gusting around 25-30 kts from the south during the afternoon hours Monday. This would greatly increase the fire weather threat for that area. However, there is only about 50% confidence of briefly critical fire weather conditions, so no fire weather products are likely at this time.

Tomorrow night, the weather becomes more interesting again. A 500 mb low will come in from the northwestern CONUS, interrupting our northwesterly flow. This will also provide scattered vorticity across the area, introducing forcing into the CWA around 3-9Z Tuesday. The aforementioned 850 mb low will have been drawing in some moisture from the east. One of the bigger uncertainties is how far south will the moisture expand. As guidance currently stands, the slightly better moistures looks to generally remain along and north of U.S. 36. Where this better moisture sets up, PoPs increase.

Precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning, as mentioned above, will be dependent on where the better 850 mb moisture sets up. However, places that do get precipitation will likely see rain, with snow mixing in closer to sunrise. There is a 5% chance of freezing rain or ice pellets during the P-type changeover. Even though only a trace to a couple of hundredths of QPF are expected, patches of slick elevated surfaces are possible Tuesday morning. We could also see fog and stratus Tuesday morning, potentially leading to freezing fog or light freezing drizzle.

Thankfully, any slick patches will quickly melt away as temperatures Tuesday will warm to around 70 degrees. The bulk of any precipitation that we see should be ending before 18Z, as the low weakens and ejects off to the northeast. This should take with it the bulk of the 850 mb moisture over the CWA. This limits the precipitation potential Tuesday evening, but if any moisture lingers, there will be additional vorticity that could lead to additional light rain. Overnight Tuesday, temperatures should be closer to 40, thanks to southerly flow.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 307 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Wednesday, our region is mostly in a zonal flow with a split upper level flow west of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s to 80s. A series of shortwaves passing through the region will increase our chances for precipitation Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) ranging from 30 to 60%, increasing west to east. Rain is the expected precipitation type with thunderstorms possible based on MUCAPE forecast over the region beginning Wednesday around 18Z.

Ensembles are aligning well on the placement of the jet stream for Wednesday, but uncertainty remains in the track and intensity of a surface low pressure system along the US/Canadian border. GFS ensembles are favoring the center of the low near the US/Canadian border. ECMWF ensembles are more divided with around half placing the center of the low in Nebraska while the other half are just north of the US/Canadian border. A more southerly center of low would increase our precipitation chances.

Thursday, we remain in a mostly zonal flow with a deepening low off the coast of Baja California. Conditions cool slightly in the wake of an overnight cold frontal passage with highs forecast in the high 60s to 70s.

As the low off the coast of Baja California propagates towards our region, potential for precipitation increases starting Thursday evening and continues throughout the weekend. PoPs range from 40-70% increasing west to east. Rain is the expected precipitation type based on forecast temperatures. MUCAPE over the region and Southwesterly upper-level flow advecting moisture into our region increase confidence that our region could see thunderstorms along with the precipitation. Low confidence on exact hazards at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Winds continue to look light for the night. Winds increase behind a cold front as it moves south. Around 14z winds at KMCK become breezing, remaining so through the rest of the TAF. KGLD remain light until later, closer to 19z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.