textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms are possible late this aft-eve, mainly in Red Willow and Norton counties between 7 PM and Midnight CDT. Damaging winds up to 70 mph are the primary hazard.

- Storms in central and western Nebraska could send outflow south toward the I-70 corridor late this evening, leading to a short period of strong N winds. Low confidence scenario.

- Breezy and little cooler Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1222 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

High pressure from the past several days has set up across New Mexico and western Texas helping keep subsidence at bay for the region. Current storms coming off the Front Range have thus far been unable to sustain themselves across Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO) counties as RAP cross sections does show a little bit of drier air near the surface despite the dew points in the 60s. Forcing around 800mb is forecast to begin to increase which should be enough to overcome the dry air and have rainfall reach the ground and persist as it continues to move to the east. 03Z RAP depicts a warm front situated just south of Interstate 70 from roughly Colby to SW Gove county along with the nose of a low level jet situated riding over the front which should be enough additional lift for either new storms to develop or enough to allow for some backbuilding of storms with a developing MCS currently across the Palmer Divide. Severe weather threat is fairly low with this activity but still can't rule out a rogue wind gust around 60 mph. The relatively higher threat, but still low, is flooding concerns as a moist air mass remains in place with PWATS of 1.9-2. Moisture transport vectors are parallel to the mean wind from the southwest continuing to support monsoonal mid level flow and coinciding with light easterly up slope winds at the surface which should be able to keep this MCS in tact. I did give some consideration for a short fuse Flood Watch but opted to hold off given a bit too quick for my liking Corfidi Vectors and also am noticing a little bit of dry air in soundings around 700mb which was also noted over the previous few nights which wound up dissipating rainfall. The dry air seen in the soundings is also keeping me from going higher on precipitation chances in the forecast for overnight. Similar to the past few nights should the rainfall fail to develop then fog, including dense fog would be a concern with high surface to 1km mixing heights in place and light winds.

Thursday, high pressure expands a little bit further to north again as high temperatures are forecast to be a little warmer than Wednesday with widespread low to mid 90s again forecast. During the afternoon hours another shortwave off of the Front Range is forecast to move through the area and is forecast to initiate showers and storms across eastern Colorado and into far NW Kansas. 0-6km bulk shear is forecast to be better Thursday than it has the previous day as it is progged to be around 30-35 knots which could support some brief supercell characteristics initially before congealing into a cluster of east-southeast moving cells due to straight line hodographs. Lapse rates are a bit meager around 6-7 c/km but think max hail potential would be up to golf balls along with wind gusts of 60-70 mph and torrential rainfall would be the main issues. Accumulating hail could be the most impactful hail impact as well due to deep freezing heights seen in soundings.

During the late evening hours, a weak cold front is forecast to move south into the area forming more showers and storms. These have the relative higher potential of being severe with damaging winds around 70 mph and large hail the primary threats. We could also have small window for a quick spinup QLCS tornado especially with any cell mergers but confidence in that is very low. The favored area for this potential second round of storms is along and east of a Trenton to Monument Rocks line. Torrential rainfall is also forecast with these storms as well so will also need to keep an eye on flash flooding potential as PWATS remain around 2. Further west out of the storms winds are forecast to increase with the cold front with gusts of 35-45 mph. Did see that the 00Z NAM did have a bit of a stronger 850mb jet than other guidance which could support wind gusts of around 50-55 mph so will be interesting to see if that was a rogue run or if other guidance will start picking up on the higher wind gust potential.

For Friday, a somewhat cooler day in store behind our weak cold front with breezy northerly winds in the 15 to 25 mph range gradually decreasing through the day. High temperatures for the day are currently forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s across the area. The biggest change will be drier air as seen in surface to 30mb AGL dew points building over the area dropping dewpoints into the low 50s or even upper 40s bringing a little relief from the high humidity recently. Do not think the strongest winds will align with drier conditions however, so concern for any fire weather threat is low. Drier air will push instability to the south and west, limiting any diurnal thunderstorm threat to eastern Colorado.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be hot, dry and windy. Saturday, we start off in a weak ridging pattern with sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 90s. Sunday, we transition into more of a zonal pattern for the remainder of the long term period. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s for the week with some areas of the county warning area (CWA) reaching the 100s on Monday. Winds begin to pick up Sunday evening for our Colorado counties with gusts around 30 mph possible. Overnight Sunday into Monday for the entire CWA with gusts from 20 to 40 mph possible. The western CWA will be on the higher end of wind gusts. Monday through Wednesday, there is around a 20% chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms from embedded shortwave passages.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

GLD: A thunderstorm cannot be ruled-out near the Goodland terminal late this afternoon, between 23-03Z. Confidence in thunderstorm development and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 18Z TAF issuance. Light southerly or variable winds will prevail through the afternoon. Winds will shift to the N and increase to 12-17 knots this evening and overnight. N winds will further increase to 15-25 knots shortly after sunrise and remain breezy through the duration of the TAF period.

MCK: Thunderstorms forecast to develop in western and central Nebraska could potentially affect the McCook terminal late this aft-eve (01-06Z), though.. recent high-res guidance suggests that storms may be confined north and east of MCK. Will continue to mention storm potential with a PROB30 group. Light SE or variable winds will prevail through the afternoon. Winds will shift to the N and increase to 10-15 knots this evening and overnight. N winds will further increase to 15-25 knots shortly after sunrise and remain breezy through the duration of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.