textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances start this evening lasting through early Saturday afternoon.

- Early morning sub-freezing Sunday morning could lead to black ice.

- Localized to widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast Monday through Wednesday. Tuesday is the most concerning with high winds and blowing dust potential as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 101 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Skies cleared out quite a bit across the area this morning, but as of 11:30 AM MT, we are seeing some clouds start to cross into the southern portions of the area from Southeast Colorado and Southern Kansas. Highs today are expected to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s today, with the warmer temperatures over the northern half of the area where little cloud cover should impact our heating potential until the late afternoon.

This evening, the surface low over Southeast Colorado is expected to slide across the Panhandles and Southern Kansas after Midnights in the ~11 PM to 3 AM MT timeframe. As the low moves, we could see some convergence of Gulf moisture and moisture moving across the Rockies over the Tri-State area helping to boost our rain chances after 6 PM MT and through the overnight hours, especially along/south of I-70 where Probability of Precipitation chances are around 50-80%. The entire area could see some rain tonight, though rainfall amounts could be less than 0.25". South of I-70 could see rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.5" with about 60% of confidence. Storm chances have decreased for the area given the delayed start of the precipitation. The peak window for the precipitation is between 11 PM tonight through ~11 AM MT Saturday morning. Rain chances should come to an end Saturday morning from northwest to southeast. Overnight lows tonight should fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s, so the ground should stay too warm for any icing potential tonight. However, any water that remains on roads and sidewalks tomorrow night could freeze with overnight lows forecast to be in the mid 20s to the lower 30s. High temperatures on Saturday should stay a bit cooler given the lingering clouds through the early afternoon keeping temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

On Sunday the area will be under northwest flow aloft as the upper level low moves along the Oklahoma/Texas Red River border while an upper level ridge builds over the Western CONUS. The start of this pattern will begin our warming trend across the region as afternoon highs are anticipated to warm into the mid to upper 60s. There could be some elevated fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon with relative humidity values in the upper teens to lower 20s. Winds are forecast to be out of the south to southwest with gusts to 35 mph possible with the strongest winds over East-Central Colorado. Over the next few days we will need to watch closely for falling dewpoint temperatures and lower humidity values to see if a Red Flag Warning may be needed. For now, confidence is less than 30% for critical fire conditions. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 147 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Ridging is forecast to be overhead Monday morning, with southwesterly upper level flow overspreading the Western United States. Warm, dry conditions are favored for the early and middle portions of next week, as several shortwave systems would have the potential to impact the area. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid-60s to lower-70s Monday, with RH potentially to drop into the mid to upper-teens for portions of Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas. Brief, locally critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon, as NBM guidance indicates about a 60-70% chance for wind gusts to meet the criteria.

Dry, windy conditions look to be in place Tuesday as a shortwave trough crosses the Rocky Mountains during the morning hours. An attendant surface cyclone to this system is forecast to form across Wyoming and Colorado, and undergo intense deepening due to lee cyclogenesis and upper-level divergence in the left exit region of an 80-100 kt upper level jet. West-southwesterly to westerly winds for Eastern Colorado may be sustained at 35-40 mph, with gusts in the 50-60 mph range possible. NBM guidance suggests that a 50-60% chance exists for High Wind Warning criteria to be met. Additionally, critical fire weather criteria may be met across the Tri-State area Tuesday afternoon, with RH values forecast in the low to mid-teens, and wind gusts at or above 25 mph for most locations. NBM guidance suggests a 90% chance or better for wind gusts to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Eastern Colorado, and about a 50-60% chance wind gusts in Northwest Kansas are able to meet criteria. Overall confidence in a Red Flag Warning being issued for Tuesday afternoon continues to increase, with Eastern Colorado currently showing the strongest signal for critical fire weather conditions. Blowing dust may also be a concern Tuesday, particularly for counties along the Colorado Border where winds are forecasted to be the highest. Passage of the surface cyclone may allow for a wind shift that could introduce a wall of dust as a potential hazard, though confidence is relatively low for this scenario. Some GFS soundings indicate the possibility of a mixed layer around 3 km high Tuesday afternoon, which could mix out blowing dust. Even so, more concentrated plumes of dust can't be ruled out at this time. High temperatures Tuesday are currently forecast in the upper-60s to low- 70s.

Another shortwave system Wednesday morning and afternoon may provide similar conditions to Tuesday. High temperatures are forecast to be slightly cooler (low to mid-60s), though westerly surface winds may allow RH values to be in the low to mid-teens once again throughout the Tri-State area Wednesday afternoon. Wind gusts for counties along the Colorado Border may cross 25 mph, with gusts between 40 and 50 mph possible in Eastern Colorado. High Wind Warnings and Red Flag Warnings may once again need to be considered. Plumes of dust can't be ruled out for Wednesday at this time.

A winter system is possible between Wednesday evening and Thursday, as another shortwave trough moves through the area. Light snow and rain are possible as this system passes through. Snow accumulations up to about an inch are forecast for the Tri-State area, though Eastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska look to be where the majority of snowfall would take place. High temperatures on Thursday are currently forecast in the low to mid-50s, but could be lower due to snowfall or quicker passage of the cold front with this system.

Model guidance is a bit divergent after Thursday afternoon, though cooler conditions are favored going into the weekend. High temperatures on Friday are currently forecast in the low to mid-50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 958 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Rain showers are starting to develop across the area. GLD remains the favored terminal to be impacted by rain showers over the next 6-10 hours where for MCK it appears to be a little more conditional due to the positioning of the system. Current VFR conditions will decline over the next few hours mainly for GLD with around a 60% chance of IFR ceilings occurring. MCK is a little trickier due to the positioning of the system a 20-30% chance of some MVFR ceilings between 10 and 13Z. Some guidance does indicate another round of showers for MCK around 18Z or so, confidence was not quite there to introduce into the TAF at this time.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ252>254. NE...None.