textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog has been observed for parts of the area and may linger until a few hours before sunrise.

- Freezing drizzle possible in southwest Nebraska tonight.

- Strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic cold frontal passage early Saturday morning, strongest (30-40 G 50-60 mph) between sunrise and noon.

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Overview: A broad lee cyclone developing in southeast CO (this aft-eve) will slowly track eastward into west/southwest KS (tonight).. as an upper level wave (located invof the northern Rockies at 18 UTC) digs SSE to/near the OK Panhandle. The aforementioned upper wave and associated lee cyclone will then rapidly progress east across the Central/Southern Plains during the day on Saturday.

Dense Fog Potential (Tonight): S-SE low-level flow and pervasive low stratus over the region this afternoon may set the stage for the development of dense fog this evening (after sunset) into tonight across the majority of the area.. as the broad lee cyclone progresses eastward from CO into KS and surface winds become light/variable.

Freezing Drizzle Potential (Tonight): Dense fog could be accompanied by FZDZ in southwest Nebraska late this evening and overnight.. where/when light E to ENE winds (on the northern fringe of the broad lee cyclone progressing eastward from CO into KS) could advect the 32F surface wetbulb isotherm southward (from central Nebraska) to the KS-NE border. Low confidence with regard to whether or not surface wetbulb temperatures would be below 32F in the presence of light precipitation (before thermal profiles become supportive of snow).

Measurable Precipitation: The progressive nature of the cyclone and the Tri-State area's position relative to the upper wave and cyclone suggests a low overall potential for measurable precip in the NWS Goodland county warning area. Guidance continues to indicate 2 distinct periods in which light precipitation may develop: [1] prior to the cold frontal passage in the Tri-State border area and southwest NE this evening (~00-06Z Sat) -- as the upper level wave digs SSE through WY-CO and [2] coincident with, or shortly after, the cold frontal passage shortly before sunrise (~09-12Z Sat) in southwest NE and adjacent KS border counties -- during a fleeting period of strong low-level frontogenesis.

Strong Winds: Strong cold advection and abrupt pressure rises in the wake of the Arctic front will at least partially coincide with diurnal heating.. between sunrise and noon Saturday.. when forecast soundings indicate ~35-45 knot northerly low-level flow will be present within a shallow (surface to 3,000 ft AGL) mixed layer. If this is the case, one would expect sustained winds ~30-40 mph with gusts in the ~50-60 mph range. Guidance indicates that low-level northerly flow will weaken throughout the afternoon and rapidly diminish after sunset Saturday evening.

Temperatures: Weak low-level flow / horizontal thermal advection and pervasive stratus will foster near steady, above- freezing temperatures across the majority of the area this evening and very early Saturday morning.. until the cold frontal passage ~09 UTC, or a few hours before sunrise (north) to ~14 UTC, or shortly after sunrise (south).. at which point temps will quickly fall into the upper teens (north) to mid-upper 20's (south). With cold advection persisting throughout the day, temps will struggle to exceed the upper 20's (north) to freezing/32F (south) during the afternoon. With weakening winds and mostly clear skies after sunset.. temps will plummet into the single digits (north) to lower teens (south) Sat night.. with wind chill readings as low as 0 to -5F around sunrise Sun morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 215 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Sun-Mon: Long range guidance continues to suggest a potential for precipitation (snow) associated with a progressive shortwave traversing the 4-Corners, Rockies and Central/Southern Plains late Sun into Mon. Low confidence persists with regard to precipitation coverage, location and specific amounts. Broadly speaking, the progressive nature of the system suggests relatively low precipitation amounts (light snow accumulation).. and the synoptic setup/pattern suggests light winds.

Tue-Fri: Long range guidance suggests a warming/moderating trend (Tue) as the Arctic airmass exits the region / drains downhill to the east and a low-level southerly return flow pattern ensues.. followed by a cooling trend assoc/w another cold frontal passage mid-week.. followed by a moderating trend late-week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1011 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... Ceilings around 500-1500ft are forecast for through about 15Z as moisture wraps in the area. Pockets of freezing rain/drizzle and icing are a concern through about 10Z with some observations in the area showing unknown precipitation or freezing fog. KMCK has the higher chance to see the icing conditions. Around 10Z, a cold front is forecast to push through the area, lowering temperatures further and strengthening winds. Any precipitation lingering should turn to snow and end by about 13Z. Winds should initially bump up to around 15-20 kts with gusts around 30 kts as the front passes. Shortly after sunrise, wind should increase further as they begin to mix out with surface winds around 25-35 kts and gusts around 40-45 kts. There is a low chance of a gust to 50 kts before 18Z. The winds should lower slowly until about 00Z when the next inversion sets up and cuts the winds off. The system should also have moved far enough away by that point. VFR conditions and winds around 10 kts are forecast through the remainder of the period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.