textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect Friday morning through mid-day Sunday for the entire Tri-State Area. Wind chill readings ranging from 10 to 20 below zero are expected throughout this period.

- Periods of dry/fluffy accumulating snow expected Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. Locally heavy snow accumulation (~4-7") possible, especially in eastern portions of the area.

- While E to SE winds at 15-25 mph may result in some blowing snow Friday afternoon, winds will decrease to 5-10 mph Friday evening and remain light through Sat night.

- 10-14% chance of additional light snow Sunday. Wind chills Sunday night into Monday morning may again fall to around -15.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 325 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

Today: Light/variable winds will gradually shift to the NE-ENE this afternoon.. as modest surface high pressure over the Central Plains progresses east toward the Central Mississippi River Valley and an expansive inverted surface ridge (extending southward from robust Arctic high pressure in Canada) approaches from the north. Expect highs in the upper 30's to lower 40's.

Tonight: Temperatures go downhill from here. Expect cold advection via ENE-NE low-level flow throughout the night as robust (~1055 mb) Arctic high pressure.. and an expansive, bitter cold Arctic airmass.. steadily advances southward into the CONUS, driving air temperatures into the single digits (possibly below zero in the north) and wind chill readings as low as -10 to -20F by sunrise Friday morning.

Friday-Saturday: An Arctic airmass (characterized by 850 mb temperatures -15 to -20C) will progress southward through the central and southern High Plains on Friday as robust Arctic high pressure advances SE-ESE across the Dakotas. Guidance indicates that strengthening mid-level (~800-650 mb) warm advection will quickly saturate thermal profiles (aloft) by late morning (~15-18Z).. that developing precipitation (initially virga) will saturate the lower-levels shortly thereafter.. that accumulating dry/fluffy snow will ensue during the early afternoon (~18-19Z) and persist overnight, heaviest ~21Z Fri to 09Z Sat.. with additional accumulation during intermittent periods of moderate snow during the day on Sat. Current models/ trends indicate a relatively greater potential for heavy snow (compared to previous guidance), particularly in eastern portions of the area. Refer to weather.gov/gld/winter for the latest probabilistic snow accumulation info/graphics. While E to SE winds at 15-25 mph may result in some blowing snow Friday afternoon, winds will decrease to 5-10 mph Friday evening and remain light through Saturday night. Air temperatures will struggle to rise above the single digits during the daylight hours on both Friday and Saturday. Below zero air temperatures are likely during the morning hours on both Saturday and Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

Synoptically starting the extended period on Sunday. Another trough develops across the northern Great Lakes which is slated to send another cold front through the area during the day. Could see some light snow occur Sunday across the area with the front. Cross sectional analysis on the 12Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS both show a saturated layer from the surface to around 600mb favoring northwest portions of the area between 18Z Sunday and 00Z Monday. Ensemble snowfall output on the ECMWF shows around an inch while interesting enough the GEFS ensemble members don't show much of anything which appears to be due to drier air near the surface overrunning the better lift. Will introduce around 10-14% pops across the northwest corner of the CWA to address this for this forecast package. But with the concern of the dry air undercutting the lift will refrain from going any higher currently.

Northwest flow is then forecast to continue through mid week before we may see another front move through the area again with some light precipitation potential. ECMWF is about 24 hours quicker (Tuesday night)than the GFS (Wednesday night) on this but snow would likely be the main precipitation type should this signal continue.

The biggest question mark with the long term period will be temperatures due to the uncertainty with how expanse and deep will the new snowpack be from this weekend. You can see this in the guidance spread as well with around a 20 degree temperature difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles. If snowpack is present then highs will struggle to make it to freezing perhaps as long as mid week. Went ahead and lowered temperatures Sunday and Monday due to the higher likelihood of a snowpack being present. Overnight lows may also be of concern as well especially Sunday night into Monday morning as skies clear leading to strong radiational cooling potential where the snowpack lies. Current forecast has lows in the single digits to a few degrees below zero across the east which still has influence from the coldest air. Should optimal radiational cooling occur then low temperatures would have the potential to fall another 5-10 degrees than currently forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 952 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KGLD and KMCK through the rest of the day and most of the night. Starting around 12-13Z, stratus will start moving in. MVFR to IFR ceilings will occur with the stratus. Between 14-18Z, snow will start moving through the region and IFR to LIFR conditions are likely.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ Friday to 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041- 042. CO...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 11 AM MST Sunday for COZ090>092. NE...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ Friday to 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.