textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 PM MDT / 8 PM CDT for northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska and the bordering Kansas counties where relative humidity will bottom-out around 15% and NW winds will gust up to 35 mph.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible once again Friday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado and bordering counties in Kansas where relative humidity will bottom-out around 10% and southerly winds may gust up to 30-35 mph during the late afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Through Tonight: Outflow emanating from an extensive area of high-based showers (virga) has produced widespread 60 mph wind gusts and significant reductions in visibility with blowing dust this afternoon, prompting several Dust Storm Warnings along the I-70 corridor in northwest Kansas. Strong NW winds will abate by sunset as high-based showers/virga progress east into central KS.

Friday-Friday night: Marginally critical fire weather conditions are possible in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties during the mid-late afternoon, where RH readings are likely to fall below 15%. Guidance suggests that southerly return flow (breezy 20-30 mph S winds) may not fully become established until late afternoon. As a result, confidence is low that red flag conditions will be more than a few hours in duration. High-based showers, perhaps a few dry lightning strikes, are also possible during the afternoon.

Sat-Sat night: A cold front will progress southeast across the area during the late morning and early afternoon. High-res guidance suggests that convection could develop as far west as the Hwy 283 corridor (Graham/Norton counties) between ~7 am and Noon MDT (~13-18Z), as the front progresses across northwest KS. Even if this is the case, activity would quickly progress east of the Goodland CWA, into central KS. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via both the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest a messy storm mode / poor organization at onset. With the above in mind, severe weather potential in the Goodland CWA appears to be very limited in scope/magnitude, i.e. marginal severe storm potential in far eastern portions of the Goodland CWA during the mid-late morning to early afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Sunday, our region starts off under weak southwest upper-level flow with a deepening low pressure system off the west coast. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s and lows in the 30s to 40s. There are chances for precipitation throughout the day as several embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) increase through the day with afternoon PoPs ranging from 75-97% increasing from south to north. PoPs will start to decrease after sundown ranging from 30-60% overnight.

We could see thunderstorms as CAPE is forecast over the region, but models are in disagreement on how much and where the CAPE will be. ECMWF shows 400-1000 J/kg of CAPE across the entire CWA Sunday, while the GFS has no CAPE over our CWA. Low confidence on specifics due to model disagreement, but we could see small hail if thunderstorms are able to form.

By Monday, a deepening low pressure system off the coast of Baja California begins to move onshore. This places our region in a more zonal upper-level pattern. As the low propagates east, several shortwaves will pass through the region bringing afternoon chances for precipitation. PoPs range from 25-50% for the northwest CWA. Convective potential is low based weak forcing and overall limited instability. Whether storms form or not, winds will be a concern Monday as a jet streak sets up over our CWA. Winds will be from the northwest with gusts of 25-40 mph possible. The northeast CWA is expected to receive the higher end of wind gusts.

Tuesday's forecast has changed a bit from yesterday. Winds have backed down overall, with max wind gusts forecast around 25 mph for the northwest CWA. Relative humidity (RH) values for the northwest CWA are forecast in the mid 20s. Fire weather concerns are decreasing based on this latest run of the NBM, but still something to monitor.

The northwest CWA has a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon with PoPs around 30% due to shortwaves passing through and weak upper-level support from a jet streak. Low confidence on specific hazards at this time, but the ECMWF is showing around 100 J/kg of CAPE in eastern Colorado, so we could see some small hail if thunderstorms are able to form.

Wednesday on, we could see a more active pattern as the aforementioned low around the west coast moves towards our area. Ensembles are currently in disagreement on the track and intensity of the low. Where this sets up will determine our precipitation chances, but based on increasing available moisture, we will likely see increasing coverage and intensity of precipitation and potentially thunderstorms Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 450 AM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. Ceilings, if any, are likely to be confined to high- based diurnal cumulus at or above ~10,000 ft AGL. Breezy/20-30 knot NW winds will prevail through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will become light/variable around or shortly after sunset and remain light overnight. Winds will become southerly and increase to 10-15 knots during the early afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013-027. CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.