textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few hours of critical fire weather conditions possible in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties this afternoon.

- Precipitation chances look to return late in the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1240 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Overview: Broad cyclonic flow aloft over the Central Plains (today) will transition to a more unidirectional/westerly flow pattern on Friday.

Today-Tonight: Strong NNW winds (30-40 mph G 45-55 mph) in the wake of a cold frontal passage will peak late this morning and steadily weaken through the remainder of the day, decreasing to 20-30 mph by 1-3p MDT and 15-20 mph by 6p MDT. Expect highs in the mid 70's to lower 80's (~10F cooler than yesterday). Winds will further weaken and become light/variable after sunset as surface high pressure (located in the Nebraska Panhandle at 16Z) progresses SSE over the Central Plains. Winds will remain light overnight and gradually shift to the SE or S by sunrise (~12Z) Fri. Expect lows ranging from the upper 40's (eastern CO) to lower 50's (elsewhere).

Fri-Fri night: A moist southerly return flow regime will follow, on Friday, as surface high pressure shifts eastward from the Central Plains to the Central MS River Valley, a baggy lee cyclone redevelops in the lee of the central Rockies and a low- level (surface to 850 mb) ridge over the Deep South directs Gulf moisture poleward into the Southern and Central Plains. Guidance continues to indicate that the northern extent of rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60's, 850 mb dewpoints >14C) will be in southwest KS, and that a relatively drier low-level airmass and a more pronounced elevated mixed layer with northern extent from Hwy 50 (north of a line from Lamar to Garden City) will maintain a fair amount of convective inhibition (a cap) over northwest KS and southwest NE. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR suggest that convection will be confined entirely south of the Goodland CWA, where low-level convergence on the eastern periphery of the baggy lee cyclone in far southeast CO/southwest KS will serve as a focus for development. The NAM NEST suggests that isolated convection may develop on the Palmer Divide, where guidance indicates that marginal high-based instability and little or no convective inhibition will be present at peak heating, though.. updrafts in this area would have to contend with dry air entrainment. Aside from a small chance for a storm in western Cheyenne County, CO and far southern Greeley/Wichita counties in KS.. dry conditions are likely over most, if not all, of the Goodland CWA. -If- deep convection were to develop in the Goodland CWA, a severe storm would be possible. Expect highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's. No appreciable fire weather concerns, as the driest conditions (RH's below 20%) will be confined to Yuma County CO, where winds will be weakest.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Sat-Sun: Unidirectional/westerly flow aloft will persist over the the weekend. Guidance suggests that a relatively cooler/drier airmass will advect southward into the Tri-State Area in the wake of a modest cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon into Saturday night will help confine precip/convection south and east of the Goodland CWA. Expect dry conditions with highs ~80-90F on Sat and much cooler temps ~70-75F on Sun.

Mon-Tue: Long range guidance indicates a transition to NNW to NW flow aloft early next week.. on the eastern periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge along the Pacific Coast. Precip/convection is possible, depending on the timing/track of shortwave energy in NNW to NW flow aloft. Temperatures and wind speed/direction will also highly depend upon the timing/track of shortwave energy and associated clipper lows.

Wed-Thu: Long range guidance indicates that the aforementioned ridge will shift eastward across the 4-Corners, central-southern Rockies and Central/Southern Plains around mid-week, suggesting a warming trend and below average precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 915 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. Ongoing 30-40 knot NNW to NW winds will peak late this morning (15-17Z) then steadily weaken during the afternoon, decreasing to 20-25 knots by 21Z and 15 knots by 00Z. Winds will become light and variable after sunset and will remain light overnight. Winds will shift to the S shortly after sunrise and increase to ~15 knots with gusts to ~25 knots late Friday morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.