textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Extensive fog this morning, dense at times.

- Slightly below normal temperatures expected this weekend.

- Windy on Saturday with light rain showers by the afternoon and continuing through Saturday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Low clouds and fog continue to expand across the area as of 07z, with ideal radiational cooling conditions due to clear skies, light winds and low dew point depressions. Some patchy freezing fog will also be possible with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. The fog and low clouds will dissipate by 18z. The rest of the afternoon will see considerable high clouds which will keep temperatures mainly in the 50s. Southeast winds will gust 20-30 mph. Cloudy skies and breezy southeast winds tonight should prevent fog from forming in most areas, though models do show some patchy fog in western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado by the morning.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy and windy. NBM 50th percentiles show southeast winds gusting 30 to 50 mph, highest in Colorado, with 55 mph probably the upper limit in Colorado. Models have sped up the arrival of the light rain showers to Saturday afternoon, as a shortwave trough ejects northward ahead of the approaching upper low. Best precipitation chances in the afternoon, albeit light and only amounting to a few hundredths, will be in the Kansas/Colorado border area. Light precipitation chances then spread eastward Saturday night, mainly south of Interstate 70, as the upper low moves through southern Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle region. Precipitation will end by Sunday morning. 50th percentile total precipitation amounts for the event are up to 0.25" south of Interstate 70, rapidly falling off to the north, while 10th percentile amounts are only a few hundredths. Confidence leans toward the lower end amounts.

Clouds will be slow to clear on Sunday with the upper low slowly moving out. Winds will be lighter with southeast winds gusting 20 to 30 mph generally north of Interstate 70, lighter south.

Temperatures will be near normal today with highs ranging from near 50 in the east to near 60 in Colorado. Temperatures over the weekend will be below normal with the clouds and light precipitation, with highs in the upper 40s and lows mainly in the 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 308 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Ensemble guidance continues to lock onto a upper-level low forming over the Central Plains early Sunday associated with a negatively tilted trough overhead and southeast winds, both aloft and at the surface. Medium confidence (50-60%) exists of a surface low pressure system south of the CWA (County Warning Area) on Sunday, but no front is expected. Meanwhile, a ridge starts to build in over the Mountain West which is likely to propagate across our area Monday through Wednesday. Guidance shows winds aloft from the northwest which become southwesterly as said ridge moves through. Model output starts to become a little more fuzzy late Wednesday but most ensembles are picking up another negatively tilted trough with a strong upper-level jet streak. This would theoretically bring stronger surface winds as early as Tuesday, lasting through Wednesday night. Guidance projects moisture advection to take place early Sunday with dew points forecast in the low to mid 40s.

Rain will be possible on Sunday morning as the low moves to the south of our CWA. PoPs are currently sitting around 20-40% through the afternoon hours. QPF is currently forecast somewhere in the range of 0.01 to 0.1 so at the very least some accumulating rainfall is probable. Chances for rain decrease substantially heading into Monday as that ridge takes control. 5% or less PoPs are expected through Tuesday. Rainfall chances present Wednesday as well with the aforementioned second trough. Confidence on any rain occurring a week from now is on the lower side at the moment with PoPs in the 15-25% range. Nevertheless, will need to be monitored going into the weekend as ensembles sort out any uncertainties with this trough. Moving onto temperatures for our region, a warming trend is expected heading into next week as the ridge builds upon the Central CONUS. Highs in the mid to upper 40s should increase to the upper 50s/low 60s by Wednesday. Morning lows are anticipated to sit around freezing on Monday and Tuesday then increase a bit into the 35-42 range on Wednesday.

Fire weather should not be a concern through early next week. Despite a recent dry spell, coupled with stronger stronger surface winds forecasted for the Monday-Wednesday timeframe, Relative Humidities (RHs) are not likely to be low. It should be on the wetter side with a system pulling in moisture from the southeast. RHs in the range of 50-80% during peak heating will be optimal for keeping fire weather at bay. Wednesday will likely be the driest day as temperatures warm and dewpoints remain stagnant but RHs shouldn't dip below 40%. As mentioned above, surface winds pick up through the middle of next week as a sustained 15-25 mph is forecasted. Gusts may reach 40 mph in some areas of eastern Colorado.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1007 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Low ceilings and areas of fog, possibly dense, will impact both KGLD and KMCK overnight and into Friday morning. IFR and occasional VLIFR flight categories are likely for a few hours either side of sunrise. Gradual improvement to VFR will occur from late morning to early afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.