textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- 10-20% chance of sprinkles or light showers favoring locations along and north of Interstate 70 tonight.

- Breezy to gusty winds Monday resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph most likely, but could gust as high as 55 mph across eastern Colorado early Monday morning. - Above normal temperatures and fire weather concerns continue through the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to continue through the remainder of the afternoon as weak cold air advection in wake of last night's cold front continues to stream into the area. The magnitude of the winds is forecast to wane as the afternoon goes as the 850mb wind field wanes. Temperature forecast continues to remain on track with highs in the low to mid 60s across the area. Some mountain cirrus across the southern CWA may actually keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast.

Tonight, some moisture gets pooled up along and west of the Highway 27 corridor thanks in part to a surface high which is forecast to promote easterly winds. A weak 500mb shortwave and associated vorticity maxima is forecast to move off of the Rockies. This looks to increase cloud cover overnight and also may be enough to generate some sprinkles or even light showers overnight. The favored area is along and north of Interstate 70. I would be a bit more optimistic on the rain chances but nearly all forecast soundings indicate some dry air near the surface which would favors the sprinkle scenario a bit more. Continue to feel that the slight chance wording for showers is reasonable given the strength of the vorticity maxima which in the past with the same set up has overcome the dry air at the surface.

The increase in cloud cover also does lead to a tricky overnight low forecast. I did nudge east counties down a few more degrees as dew points in the low 20s are forecast along with lighter winds and what should be a bit of a delay in cloud cover impacting them overnight. If the cloud cover across the area is thicker than what is currently forecast then low temperatures may be around 3-5 degrees to low.

Monday morning a tightening pressure gradient across eastern Colorado is forecast to form leading to increasing winds as early as 10Z across far western portions of the Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are forecast but there is potential for gusts up to 55 mph. Winds are forecast to work their way east through the morning and afternoon but lose some of their punch but still remaining gusty at 35-45 mph. Eastern portions of the CWA may top out with 25-35 mph gusts. Elevated fire weather will be a concern as humidity is forecast to fall into the upper teens to mid 20s across the area forecast to see the lower on the RH. Mid and upper level clouds are forecast to be rather thick looking RAP cross section analysis which may actually keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast and keep humidity a could percent higher than forecast as well. With the cloud cover be aware that hot spots may shielded from satellite view. Monday night another 500mb shortwave and vorticity max is forecast to move across the area within northwesterly flow. 15Z RAP cross sections show deeper dry air near the surface which makes me question if sprinkles would even occur.

Tuesday, high pressure is forecast to form again across the southwestern CONUS as high temperatures warm again into the 80s across the entire area. Cloud cover is again forecast to be present which may limit how warm temperatures get. Guidance shows a bit more stout moisture advection at least for eastern part so of the forecast area for the afternoon. The 850mb wind field looks less impressive than what was seen 24 hours ago which leads me to believe that fire weather will not be a concern despite the warming temperatures. Should there be any fire weather concerns it would favor eastern Colorado where humidity is again forecast to fall into the mid teens but may be dependent on how deep mixing can become and if any wind gusts above 20 knots can occur.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday remain forecast to be under the influence of an upper ridge that is positioned over the southwest. With low level flow generally from the south or west, we should see warm air advection and warm back up. Temperatures in the 80s and 90s are forecast with Wednesday being the warmer of the two days. With current GEFS 850mb temperature spreads including 30C, there is the chance that Wednesday could have very similar temperatures to this past Saturday. The forecast highs in the 90s are already near or above the record high temperatures for the day. There are low concerns for critical fire weather conditions due to the very dry conditions. Similar to this last week though, the broad surface pressure gradient and the upper ridge are forecast to generally keep winds on the lighter side. But we'll have to watch and see if parts of Eastern Colorado can mix deeply and reach winds above 20 kts.

A system is still forecast to move through the area late Wednesday and into early Thursday. Ensemble members are still showing some variance in timing, but 70-80% of the members have the system passing around 3-9am Thursday. With the early passage of the front, the concerns for dust is fairly low. Temperatures are also forecast to be lower with 60s and 70s on Thursday and 50s and 60s on Friday/Saturday. There is the possibility that temperatures could be cooler if the upper trough drives the system more to the south. Highs could then be in the 40s with lows in the teens and 20s. For now, ensemble 500mb spreads are favoring a faster progression east over more of a dive to the south. In either scenario, we'll have to watch for critical fire weather conditions with winds a bit breezy behind the front and dry conditions forecast to remain. The main inhibitor is that cooler temperatures should keep relative humidity above 15%.

Going into next weekend, the current suggestion in ensemble spreads is that we will keep the roller coaster ride rolling with another ridge moving in, followed by another upper trough. This would allow us to warm to well above average again before another fall. That being said, there is some suggestion the next wave could just push through and prevent an upper ridge from really getting set up and warming us up next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1047 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to slowly wane through the afternoon with gusts around 30 knots forecast for each terminal for the first few hours of this period. Winds overnight are forecast to shift and become more easterly and eventually south- southeasterly by mid morning Monday when winds return. There is a 10-20% chance of sprinkles or light showers overnight favoring MCK but can't be completely ruled out at GLD, currently not anticipating any drop to MVFR or lower at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record High Temperatures are possible on Wednesday, March 25th.

Goodland, KS: Record high of 85 in 1907, current forecast is 90.

Hill City, KS: Record high of 88 in 1956, current forecast is 91.

McCook, NE: Record high of 88 in 1910, current forecast is 89.

Burlington, CO: Record high of 83 in 1998, current forecast is 90.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.