textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible again Sunday. The main threat would be wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail. A secondary area could be across extreme northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska this evening.

- Low chances for severe storms continue into Monday and Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast to continue through Monday before brief warm up occurs again on Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 9p MT for eastern Colorado and Wallace and Greeley counties. Opted to include Wallace and Greeley counties in this watch due to anticyclonic hodographs in place which favors left mover supercells, which is to the northeast. With this initial development and other agitated cumulus so close to the state line opted to include these two counties in case that scenario did develop.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

High pressure broadens out across the souther Plains which has blocked our moisture into place for another day. A weak 700mb frontogenesis band moved through during the morning hours which brought additional cloud cover back to western portions of the forecast area. Scattered to broken cloud cover is forecast to continue for most of the day which is forecast to help keep temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the forecast area.

A shortwave is forecast to move off of the Rockies. Severe weather may be possible again but similar to today not impressive as we may not be able to warm up enough for storms to sustain themselves and may not even reach the forecast area this afternoon due to the additional inhibition with this the cloud cover. I'm keeping storm chances in the forecast as our convective temperatures are fairly low only in the mid 70s which we we should be able to breach that with a little bit of clearing. Should any storms form or move into the area large hail around quarter size and wind gusts of 50-60 mph are the primary hazard. With anticyclonic hodographs if any storm were to exhibit supercellular nature left movers would be favored supporting more of the hail threat. Wind threat would be isolated given meager lapse rates. Some guidance also indicates a potential second zone of storms moving in from the Nebraska Panhandle/Cheyenne Ridge vicinity on the exit region of a weak 500mb jet. There could be some severe threat with this as well should it develop with the same hazards as before, although wind threat may be a tad bit higher. Not as concerned about flash flooding as previous days as storms will be a bit more confined and should be moving at a decent speed with Corfidi vectors around 25-40 knots. Am seeing the potential for some redevelopment across southwestern portions of the area across Cheyenne (CO) and Greeley county

Monday, overall a similar synoptic pattern is forecast to today with the only difference being a slightly more amplified developing ridge across the western CONUS. Due to the mid level high slightly expanding a bit further north I did nudge up our southern counties a few degrees into the upper 80s to low 90s versus the mid 80s for the remainder of the area. May need to watch for some even slightly higher temperatures across Cheyenne county Colorado as winds may become a bit more southwesterly during the afternoon with a developing low across Colorado as mixing may be a little bit stronger.

Another day and another chance for storms for the area Monday afternoon. A subtle convergence may be able to develop as high pressure is forecast to be across eastern Kansas and the above mentioned low pressure across Colorado develops. A conditional threat for the afternoon hours is seen during the afternoon hours along said convergence zone draped from roughly Wray down through Leoti. Do think a storm or two develops later in the afternoon hours as a subtle 500mb vorticity maxima within the northwest flow moves through. A bit better environment for large hail is seen as wind shear is forecast to be better than today around 30-35kts along with steeper lapse rates. Hail around ping pong ball to golf ball would be possible if we could get a sustained and deep updraft but quarters would be most likely along with 50-60 mph wind gusts. Any severe threat would wane after sunset as we lose diurnal heating. Winds from the southwest are forecast to continue through the night which may be able to help keep overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday, our southwest winds during the morning are forecast to lead to a rapid warmup as ridging amplifies some across the western CONUS. Our warmup should be short lived as a cold front is forecast to be situated across the northern Plains. High temperatures for the day are forecast in the 90s. If eastern portions of the area can remain in southwesterly flow then a run towards the triple digits could occur. `

During the afternoon a surface low is forecast to develop across eastern Colorado and lead to weaker winds for most with the exception being across the eastern CWA where winds are forecast to remain from the southwest. There remains some disagreement with low positioning as GEFS tries to pull it into western Kansas during the afternoon versus the ECMWF ensembles with the majority of it remaining in Colorado, but a few members does put it into Kansas. If it pulls east then any threat for rainfall and severe weather decreases, if it can remain to the west in Colorado then locales along and east of a Yuma to Goodland to Grinnell line has a chance of storms, possibly severe with the higher chance further east you go. A caveat top decreasing precipitation chances is the cold front crashing sooner which in itself could create some additional storms, but currently think would lead to more a wind threat given the linear forcing and meager wind shear since the low would theoretically be further away. Currently think the front moving through faster is the lesser of the scenarios at this time. Overall, current thinking is that the low remains in Colorado with the front moving through during the early to mid evening as a cluster of storms with wind the main concern.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Northwesterly flow is favored overhead at 500-mb Wednesday morning according to GEFS and EC ensembles. A shortwave trough embedded in the northwesterly flow is forecast to move through the area throughout the day. GEFS and EC members are in support of a surface low at the leading edge of this shortwave already past the forecast area by morning, which would favor a northerly component to the surface winds. High temperatures are favored to be cooler than Tuesday, in the low to mid 80s. In addition, thunderstorms are possible Wednesday ahead of a secondary cold front. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows the best chances for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across Eastern Colorado and Southwestern Nebraska, with some areas at a 50-60% chance. These thunderstorms would be supported by a modest 40-50 kt jet streak at 500-mb, particularly across northern portions of the forecast area. LREF guidance is in support of this solution, showing a two in three chance that sfc-500mb wind shear will exceed 30 kts for areas along and north of I-70, and as high as an 80-90% chance across Northeast Colorado and Southwest Nebraska. As such, severe thunderstorms, particularly across this zone where wind shear would be highest, are possible. The favored mode for these storms are currently clusters and/or line segments, as supported by vertical wind shear parallel to the incoming cold front alongside recent RRFS data showing a cluster and/or line segment coming through the area during the evening/overnight hours. The primary hazard with these storms would be strong winds, with a secondary hazard of large hail. Confidence in severe weather occurring is highest north of I-70, around 10%.

Northwesterly flow is forecast to persist into Thursday, as ridging continues to build off to the west. While surface winds may still be out of the northeast during the day, they are forecast to mainly stay below 20 mph. This would allow sufficient warming to take place Thursday afternoon as long as clouds clear out. Otherwise, temperatures would be able to remain cooler Thursday. Forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s, though could reach into the 90s if sufficient heating can take place. Showers may develop during the evening hours, though NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests less than a 20% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across nearly the entire forecast area. LREF guidance continues to show a two in three chance that vertical wind shear will be above 30 kts along and north of I-70 Thursday, which may allow some storms to become severe. However, given the anticipated low coverage of storms Thursday, confidence in severe weather occurring is 5% or less.

The remainder of the forecast period looks to be dominated by warmer temperatures as ridging from the west moves in overhead. Highs Friday through Sunday are forecast in the 90s. Conditions are also forecast to be drier, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance continues to show a 20% chance or less for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across the forecast area. Additionally, relative humidities (RH) may drop a little bit with the increase in temperatures, but are not forecast to drop below 20%. We may see RH values drop further into the teens if southwesterly surface flow can develop across the area. This would be possible given the persisting northwesterly upper- level flow to the north and east of the forecast region, which would allow surface lows to track across this area. Even so, fire weather conditions are not expected, as wind gusts are forecast to remain below 25 mph all three days. However, if RH values can drop into the teens and a few thundershowers could develop, there would be a risk for dry lightning to start fires.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 527 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected for both terminals through the first half of the TAF period, with winds gradually turning from easterly to southerly. There is about a 10-20% chance that a thunderstorm from the northwest enters the vicinity of KGLD, but confidence is currently not high enough that it will survive to KGLD to include it in the TAF. Thunderstorms are not in the forecast for KMCK. Additionally, some early morning stratus is possible from 12-14z at KMCK, and 12-15z at KGLD. However, HREF guidance is only showing 10% probabilities that the stratus will fully materialize to create ceilings at either airport.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.