textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect a modest warming trend over the weekend with slightly above average highs in the 60's to mid 70s.

- Near average temperatures with highs in the 60s and light winds are forecast for much of the next week. No precipitation is also forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 235 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

A weak upper level pattern continues to be in place over the forecast area, as the jet stream is situated over the Northern United States and Southern Canada. A surface high exists across the Central Rocky Mountains, producing weak westerly winds across the Tri-State Area. Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s to mid 40s as of 07Z (Midnight MST), as upper cloud cover is beginning to move in from the northwest. As such, temperatures are not forecast to drop much further through the remainder of the night, preventing fog from forming as well.

GEFS and EC ensembles show consistency in the jet stream remaining to the north today and tomorrow, with only slight southward dips expected. This will keep winds relatively weak. Subsidence in association with the surface high pressure is expected to keep cloud cover to a minimum throughout the day today, allowing solar heating to dominate. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, with a few lower 70s mixed in. Clear conditions will continue into the night, with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s in most areas. REFS guidance suggests that fog will once again be kept to a minimum Sunday night. This is corroborated by the NBM, which suggests dewpoints have a 60% chance or higher of staying below 36 F along and west of Kansas Highway 25, with areas east likely to experience the higher end of the temperature range.

Similar conditions are expected Monday, with clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The one difference is that REFS guidance is more suggestive of fog forming overnight, with a 40- 50% chance of formation in areas along and east of a line from Haigler, NE to Oakley, KS by 12Z Tuesday (5 AM MST). 300 K Theta-E surfaces suggest that moisture may be moving into this area overnight, alongside NBM guidance suggesting that dewpoints will have a 50% chance or greater of being above 36 F Monday night in this zone. The main problem is that temperatures have a fair chance (30-40%) of remaining above 40 in this area, which would likely prevent fog. However, clear skies are expected to be in place overnight, which would help temperatures drop toward the dewpoint. Confidence in dense fog (1/4 mile visibility or less) forming is around 30%.

Tuesday high temperatures are forecast similar to Monday in the 60s and lower 70s, though LREF guidance suggests that cloud cover may be slightly higher, which may lower highs a bit. Winds are expected to shift out of the northwest as a shortwave trough traverses the area, which could impact overnight conditions. However, NBM guidance suggests that winds only have a 10-20% chance of reaching above 15 MPH, which would lower the effects of incoming cold air on our low temperatures. Lows are currently forecast in the upper 30s to mid 40s, though temperatures may be allowed to fall a bit more into the mid 30s depending on how much radiational cooling can occur and whether the northwest winds will be able to cool us down.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1209 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

The mid part of the week is forecast to start with a trough digging into the Plains and East Coast. This trough is forecast to bring in a weak cold front that should keep temperature steady with lows in the 30s/40s and highs in the 60s. Winds are forecast to pick up a bit Wednesday as the front passes through, but with speeds only around 10-15 mph. Thursday would then see winds lower back to calm. No precipitation is forecast for either day with dry air in place. The main thing to watch for is if the upper trough digs a bit further west and doesn't move out as quickly. The main changes would then be cooler temperatures on Thursday with highs in the 50s, wind speeds similar to Wednesday, and much more cloud cover.

Friday and into the weekend is forecast to have an upper ridge move in behind the trough. The ridge is looking a bit more amplified in guidance compared to yesterday's forecast. While the forecast for the now keeps lows in the 30s/40s and highs in the 60s, it wouldn't be unreasonable for highs to reach the 70s and maybe even the 80s if the ridge is as persistent and amplified as some guidance suggests. Winds would favor remaining light and calm as long as the ridge moves over, along with mostly clear to clear skies. One thing to keep an eye on is that some guidance is suggesting a shortwave will move in from the west around late Saturday or Sunday. While a bit far out to put confidence in, it does look like the next chance at some precipitation if it does materialize. The chance is about 10- 15%. Amounts would likely be light with the dry air in place needing to be overcome.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1016 PM MST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the duration of the TAF period at both KGLD and KMCK. Winds will be light and out of the northwest for the first half of the period, before a surface boundary shifts winds out of the south for both terminals. There are indications that a low level jet may produce modest wind shear toward the end of the TAF period, though confidence is not yet high enough to include in the TAFS.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.