textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week.

- Storm and shower chances return on Tuesday through Thursday.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1210 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Upper ridge will move from the Four Corners today to the southern California coast on Wednesday. This will open the door to shortwaves rotating around the ridge and increase precipitation chances. CAMs show convection developing around 21z this afternoon along the Front Range and reaching the Kansas border area by around 03z. Instability will be weakening by that time to only a few hundred j/kg and deep layer shear will be less than 20 kts. As the storms and showers decay they could still be producing 40-60 mph wind gusts through about 06z in areas generally west of Highway 25. Some patchy blowing dust may also be possible with recent dry spell drying out the top soil. The set up on Wednesday will be similar, but with a slight increase in both instability (up to 1500 j/kg in eastern areas) and deep layer shear (up to 30 kts). This should result in more organized and longer lasting convection as it moves out of Colorado in the afternoon and across the area Wednesday night. Wind and blowing dust will still be the primary hazards but also might a marginal hail threat with the uptick in environmental parameters. Storms move across at a fairly quick pace and will exit to the east by 06-07z.

Temperatures show little change through the period with highs in the mid to upper 90s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1252 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Starting the extended period Thursday, the main focus is for another threat for showers and storms as well driven by a sagging weak cold front through the afternoon hours. Guidance also suggests that a 500mb shortwave will accompany the front and there is also further upper level support as a weak 250mb jet moves across the Rockies. The 250mb jet has strengthened a bit from what was seen yesterday. QPF signals indicate storm development off of the Front Range and progressing onto the Plains with it entering NW Kansas around 00Z based on current timing. Initial storms would favor large hail but GFS, NAM and ECMWF all support straight line hodographs so with the forcing and wind shear around 30-35 knots, think with eventual mergers storms will cluster into a eastward moving severe MCS with time. Cold pool propagation parameters are being met as well with ample MUCAPE, weak and weak low level winds. NAM and ECMWF also both show some subtle 500 and 700mb diffluence out ahead of the potential MCS which suggests that some leading edge convection may be on the table as well. The big question will be how far east will this survive and be potentially severe as the ECMWF doesn't show a 700mb jet during the evening but the GFS does. If the GFS does verify then some backbuilding potential for eastern portions of the area could lead to some flooding threat but Corfidi vectors increase during this time which would limit that threat.

Friday, Some guidance does indicate another weak shortwave off of the Front Range with some qpf signal being seen for areas south of I70. There could be some severe threat with this but currently looks very low with marginal CAPE values and very weak shear in place. Did notice that corfidi vectors are very slow with this potential cluster. ECMWF continues to keep the qpf signal south of the CWA however.

Through the weekend and into next week there is very good agreement for a large high pressure system to begin to develop across the western CONUS and spread over the Plains. If this were to occur then hot temperatures are forecast to be in place especially if a near 595 dam sets up over the region. This would support the potential for 100+ degree temperatures. Guidance today is a bit less aggressive on the intensity of the high and has it more broad which would help keep temperatures a little lower than what was being seen yesterday. Will be interesting to see if this trend continues. Thankfully current dew points are forecast to be in the 40s to low 60s across the area which would help keep the heat indices close to or below the air temperature. However there is the potential for a prolonged period of hot to very hot temperatures for the area. Precipitation chances would also dwindle as well due to the subsidence of the high pressure if it is indeed centered on top of the CWA.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1101 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Winds will continue to be southeasterly with gusts in the 20-30 kts range. We are expecting a cold front this evening to remain west of the TAF sites, which would bring in showers and some chaotic winds. We are not expecting impacts to either of the airports, but between 3-9Z, there is a 10-20% chance of northwesterly winds and precipitation.

**KGLD VISIBILITY: Parts are on order, there is no estimated return to service at this time. Until then, amendments for visibility should not be expected for KGLD.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.