textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Saturday as cold front and upper disturbance move through the area. A few severe storms will be possible, mainly near the front, with wind and hail the main hazards.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Ridging over the Desert Southwest will keep northwest flow in place across the Central Plains through the short term period. An embedded shortwave trough will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Otherwise, expecting dry and mild conditions for today and Sunday.

Surface pattern on Saturday is somewhat messy and will play a key role in where convection will develop. Models show an area of low pressure developing in the Kansas/Nebraska border area in response to the approaching shortwave with a trailing cold front which will be the focus for convective initiation. Models not in good agreement at this time with frontal position or timing. At 21z, the expected time of initiation, one cluster of model solutions, including NAMnest, GFS and ECMWF, have the low just east of McCook with the front exiting the area to the south; but there is another cluster of slower solutions, including the HRRR and RFS, which show the low and front further west and still in the area. These slower solutions would result in a better chance for thunderstorms to develop in the area near the front and low pressure, while the faster solutions would have a lower chance. Environmental parameters are marginally supportive for severe storms, with instability somewhat limited at 500-1000 j/kg, perhaps locally enhanced along and ahead of the front to 1200/j/kg, while deep layer shear gradually increases from 30 kts in mid afternoon to 40 kts by around 00z and through the evening. Models show isolated storms possible even behind the front in the evening when shear is strongest, but question remains on whether the instability will be sufficient, and by 03z whatever instability is there will be elevated. So while coverage is still somewhat questionable and dependent on the frontal timing, whatever storms do develop will be in an environment which could result in a supercell capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Tornado threat is low, with STP barely registering in the slower solutions near the low pressure center and along the front, suggesting a weak tornado if one did develop. Scattered storms may linger into the overnight but with a diminished severe threat as MUCAPE weakens.

While northwest flow continues on Sunday upper heights are rising as ridge starts to nudge in from the west. Hard to find much in the way of any embedded wave in the flow. Models are dry and will keep it that way for now.

Temperature trends for the period will see near to slightly above normal today (mostly 70s), above normal on Saturday (70s and 80s), then cooling behind the front on Sunday to slightly below normal (60s). Lows will range from the upper 30s to middle 40s, coldest in Colorado.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

For Monday and Tuesday, the ridge fully moves into the area with the center of the wave over the Dakotas / Montana boarder. The weather that will be brought with this system is warm temperatures and drier conditions.

The high temperatures will be mainly in the mid to upper 80s. However on Monday, there is a 10% chance of exceeding 90 degrees for locations east of Hwy 83. The low temperatures look to hang around the 40s. The wind gusts for this period stay in the 15-25 mph range. Overall RH values stay above 20%. The only exception is Monday, where west of Hwy 27 they drop to the low to mid teens. There is a 30-50% chance that Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in CO see values less than 15%.

Wednesday and Thursday has a new upper pattern change begins with the ridge moving out the region. Currently guidance has some disagreement with on whether or not a trough will begin to develop/strengthen and move east of the west coast off the CONUS. This currently leaves some uncertainties up in the air with how things will evolve.

The warm high temperatures remain Wednesday, with values in the mid to upper 80s. The low temperatures do warm to 50s. There is a signal for at least elevated fire concerns. Currently wind gusts are showing signs of being above 35 mph with the probability of exceeding being around 10-25%. Looking at RH values they remain in the 20% range with some localized upper teens. GFDI values are currently forecast to be "very high" which does lead to some concern with fire spread potential. More investigation will be needed as we move closer to the event as time moves on.

Thursday's highs look to remain in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the 50s. RH values look to remain in the 20% range. Wind gust however, don't look to be as strong as Wednesday. There is some signals that we could see an afternoon shower, but this depends on what happens with our synoptic pattern and how that evolves.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1107 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR expected to prevail for both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Virga showers will continue into the overnight with bases around 10kft, but no impacts expected.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.