textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for most of the Tri- State area this afternoon and evening. Large hail up to 3 inches and damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph are the main hazards. A few tornadoes and blowing dust are also possible.

- Sunday-Monday, more severe weather is expected during the afternoon and evening hours. All hazards are possible, and will generally favor northern portions of the area.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday and Monday.

- Blowing dust will be possible with severe storms. Blowing dust may also occur Monday with wind gusts nearing 50 mph for those who do not receive rain over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1225 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Current satellite observations show a large upper trough over the Western Unites States and Rocky Mountains. At the surface, low pressure has setup over the Panhandles region, but extends towards the Central Plains and Front Range. With this, we continue to have both upper level and lower level support for storms.

Early morning storms that formed along an initial convergence zone or dryline along I-70 are beginning to dissipate as they move north into an environment that is a little less unstable that the southern and eastern areas. These early morning storms are not forecast to make much of a difference in the later storms or prevent them from being strong. One of the bigger changes is that the convergence zone that was forecast to be around Highway 40 and I-70 is less likely to be in place and spark storms. This appears to be due to the low broadening and having less of a wind convergence zone setup. Still, there could be some weak convergence or a weak dryline that could still ignite some storms that would be more likely to be solo and/or supercellular. If these do form, it would likely be near I-70 between 2-4pm MT. Overall chance is around 30%. The main hazard when these storms first form would be very large hail around 1-3 inches in size and maybe a tornado.

Otherwise, we are still on track for storms to form between 1-3pm MT in Eastern Colorado along an area of surface convergence and moisture convergence. These storms would likely form into a line fairly quickly near the Western Yuma and Kit Carson county borders and push east. While the instability and available moisture should be lesser to start, enough should be present for large hail to form. As it becomes more of a line and moves east into better moisture, the risk for tornadoes and strong outflow/cold pool winds increases. The issue with this is that it would likely become a QLCS, making the hazardous wind gusts more widespread and making any tornadoes hard to see.

As we get into the late afternoon and evening hours, the storms should push east through the area. If both areas form, they should begin to merge together close to Highway 25. There could be some strong supercells if the first cluster form in NW Kansas and isn't quickly overtaken by the line from Colorado. Be alert for the potential for very large hail and maybe a strong tornado if this occurs. Otherwise, the cluster and line should sweep through the area north of I-70, producing large hail, plenty of wind gusts above 60 mph (maybe pushing 80-90 mph), and a tornado or two.

The majority of the storms should move out of the area by midnight central time. There may still be additional storms that develop with the 500mb trough remaining upstream and outflows from earlier storms, but the threats should be much lower. We may be able to get some marginal severe weather out of any lingering storms. Otherwise, temperatures should remain in the 50s and 60s with moisture continuing to wrap around the low and into the area. This could also allow for some fog to develop mainly along the Nebraska border closer to sunrise.

Tomorrow, the upper trough axis is forecast to near more of the Four Corners region, though ensemble guidance suggests that it may lag a bit further to the west. This could give the area another round of severe weather, similar to Saturday with little change in the environment. The further south and west the surface low is dragged, the less the area will be filled with dry air and the more instability we will have for storms. If the low does move more into or over the area, we would instead run the risk of some critical fire weather conditions due to the dry air and with wind gusts nearing 25-30 mph. In this case, the severe weather coverage would be confined again to the northern portions of the area.

Should the severe weather develop, it will likely follow a similar time table of starting around 2-4pm MT near the Tri-State border area. The storms are then forecast to push east/northeast, which may be the difference of the storms leaving the area instead of pushing across. All hazards would again be possible. The other area we would be watching is along the dryline if it is in our area. Storms are forecast to fire up east of the dryline and push east, again with all hazards. Likely, this would only impact those east of Highway 83, if at all. Regardless of which/any storm activity that forms, the severe threat should end close to 9pm-12am CT as the low diffuses and the support wanes (as long as there are not a bunch of outflow boundaries in the area).

One thing to be wary of both days is the potential for blowing dust along the leading edge of storm outflow. The area has still been somewhat dry, with dust likely to kick up if winds gust above 50 mph. This could lead to brownout conditions, especially ahead of any organized line of storms. The threat may be lessened Sunday if Saturday's storms due cluster enough to provide areas with an inch or two of rain.

Monday, the upper trough axis is forecast to begin pushing east into the Plains while also broadening. This should begin to push the moisture and the surface low off to the east. With this, the chance and risk for severe weather should lower across the area. This doesn't mean we will be in the clear, as those east of Highway 83 still have some risk if the trough does not push east fast enough. But ensemble guidance is favoring a fast progression so the chances are now on the lower side.

The issue is that it will increase the winds as a colder air mass will then begin to push in from the northwest. With a stronger pressure gradient, winds could reach 15-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. This poses a problem both for fire weather conditions and blowing dust. If the dry air moves in fast enough or gets pulled further north, critical fire weather conditions could develop as RH lowers into the teens. If we do not get much in the form of rain over the weekend, then blowing dust may occur with the strong winds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Tuesday is cooler in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High temperatures are expected in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Our region is forecast to be under a southwest upper-level flow as a trough develops west of the Rocky Mountains throughout the week. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, there is around a 40% chance of showers for the northwest county warning area (CWA).

Conditions remain cool Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures forecast in the 60s. Southwest upper-level flow will persist through the week supporting chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 30-40% for the CWA.

Ensembles are in disagreement on when the aforementioned trough ejects eastward and takes us out of the persistent southwest flow, but it will likely move on after Friday. A slight warming trend begins Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Friday and 80s for Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain for Friday through Saturday with PoPs around 20-30% for the eastern CWA as several shortwaves pass through the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 532 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Severe convection will continue to impact the GLD TAF site through roughly 01Z before shifting east. Wind gusts to 50-55kts have been observed to the west of the site and it is still looking very likely that those gusts will be observed at GLD. As the storms shift eastward, expect MCK to see storm arrival around 02Z before shifting east of the TAF site around or just after 03Z. The northern end of the line has been producing gusts close to 40kts, so kept 40kt mention in the TAF for that time period. It is still possible that storms could develop ahead of the main line, so timing may need to be adjusted with updates.

Overnight into Sunday morning (11Z-13Z), some fog or lowered ceilings may develop across the TAF sites. The chances have increased a bit with convection ongoing and the added low-level moisture from the rainfall. Added a TEMPO for lower visibility at GLD and may need to add at MCK with later updates, especially if the heavier rainfall occurs at the site. Otherwise, Sunday morning is expected to see better flying conditions after 15Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.