textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight midday Sunday for the entire Tri-State Area. Wind chill readings ranging from 15 to 25 below zero are expected throughout this period.

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of northwestern Kansas due to expected snowfall amounts ranging from 3-6 inches. Pockets of snow up to 8 inches is possible in the southeastern CWA. Areas outside of the Advisory can expect up to 3 inches of snow.

- 10% chance of freezing drizzle south of I-70 between U.S. 385 and 83 late Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 248 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

The rest of the day, mild conditions will prevail as our next system approaches. Overnight tonight, the northeasterly winds will push temperatures into the low single digits, leading to winds chills as low as -20F. It's likely Friday will see a midnight high in the mid teens. An 850 mb high will descend over Nebraska, to the northeast of the CWA. This will continually push colder air into the CWA and high temperatures after sunrise will be around 10 degrees for most of the area. This will lead to maximum feels-like temperatures to be around -5 to -15 range. A Cold Weather Advisory starts tonight and will persist through Sunday midday.

During the day Friday, a low around Baja California looks to provide 700 mb south/southwesterly flow. This would push warm, moist air into the region in the afternoon and evening. During the morning, the 700 mb layer looks to still be dry. As the low level flow from the east pushes moisture into the CWA, there is a 10-15% chance freezing drizzle will occur south of I-70 between U.S. 385 and 83. For the freezing drizzle to occur, temperatures would need to be in the upper teens to support supercooled droplets. In this scenario, a trace to 0.03 inches of ice would occur. Current forecast is that temperatures will be too cold to support droplets, in which case stratus would occur and occasional flurries will fall.

Snow may move into the northern CWA as early as 9Z, and most of the CWA will see snow by 13-15Z. Peak snowfall rates will be between 21- 6Z. The eastern CWA will see the highest snowfall amounts, and also has a 15-20% chance of seeing a snowband form. Looking at NAM, 0-6Z the column is saturated, and near surface and mid level lapse rates are between 7.5-9 C/km, with Omega around -5. If a band forms, snowfall accumulations in these areas would likely be around 8-10 inches.

Snowfall accumulations across most of the northwestern Kansas look to be around 3-6 inches, prompting a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued. Areas outside of the area look to receive 1-2.5 inches of snow. These amounts have come up slightly due to the system favoring a northerly path and SLRs increasing (around 1:15-20) due to the very cold temperatures. There is still a 30% chance the system takes a more southerly path, which would basically half these snowfall amounts.

Overnight Friday, temperatures are forecast to cool to around -5, leading to wind chills around -15 to -25. There is a 50% chance air temperatures drop even colder, and push wind chills in the central CWA to -30, in which case a Cold Weather Warning would need to be issued.

Saturday, the mid-level cold front basically stalls out over the southeastern CWA. This will allow the snow to persist throughout the day. Temperatures during the day are forecast to top out around 0-10 degrees, which may still be about 5 degrees too warm. Wind chills will likely not climb above 0 degrees Saturday.

Snow should end by sunrise Sunday from the north to south. There is a 20-30% chance the system slows, allowing the precipitation to linger into the mid morning Sunday. Lows are forecast to cool to around 0 to -5, pushing wind chills to around -15, again.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 252 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

Sunday remains cold in the wake of our winter storm system. A trough develops in the Great Lakes region sending another cold front through our region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) Sunday afternoon are 10-15% with Kit Carson and Yuma counties being on the higher end. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s and lows around zero. Depending on how much snowpack we get from the winter storm, temperatures may struggle to reach the currently forecast highs. Wind chills overnight Sunday into Monday are still dangerously low with values ranging from -15F to -20F for the entire county warning area (CWA). Winds are expected to be light and variable with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Depending on how much snow we receive throughout the weekend, minor blowing snow may occur.

The region is forecast to be in a mild northwest flow for the remainder of the long term forecast period. Winds will be mild and variable with gusts up to 20 mph. High temperatures are forecast in the 40s Monday through Thursday, but again this may lower based on the snowpack we receive from the weekend system. Lows are forecast in the teens. There is a slight chance of snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday with PoPs overnight from 5-10% for the western portion of the CWA. Models are beginning to show signs of another winter system moving through the region late Thursday through the weekend. Low confidence on this currently, but we will know more as the week progresses.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 440 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through at least 10Z at KGlD and KMCK with MVFR stratus overspreading northwest KS and southwest NE in the 10-15Z period along with light snow. Eventually snow intensity will increase through the afternoon and evening resulting in reduced visibilities and the potential (30% chance) for IFR conditions to develop by the end of the TAF period. Winds do increase from the east-southeast to the 12-15kt range, and winds may periodically gust to 25kt during the afternoon. Combined with falling snow this may contribute to the potential for localized visibility reductions due to minor blowing snow before winds decrease Friday evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ Friday to 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041- 042. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Friday to 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ Saturday for KSZ002>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. CO...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 11 AM MST Sunday for COZ090>092. NE...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ Friday to 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.