textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to record high temperatures are possible across portions of the area on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. A white Christmas is unlikely.

- Cooling trend this weekend with near-average temperatures on Sunday followed by a warming/moderating trend early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 108 PM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over Mexico stretching north to the Plains. Rounding the ridge was high cloud cover coming off the mountains. At the surface a high pressure was over the upper Midwest.

For the rest of today temperatures will be cooler than yesterday but still well above normal. Light and variable winds will become more southerly through the afternoon as the surface high pressure moves southeast over the Missouri River Valley.

Tonight light winds will turn from the south to the northwest as a surface low moves into the forecast area from the west. Dew points will be around 30F, which will keep temperatures well above normal. There will be weak moisture advection over the eastern part of the forecast area. However the saturated layer will be too shallow to support fog. Increasing cloud cover will also help keep lows rather warm.

Wednesday the ridge builds slightly more over the forecast area. Westerly winds will become variable during the afternoon. Cloud cover will gradually end through the day. How quickly the clouds clear will determine how warm temperatures become. Warmed temperatures a few degrees from the model consensus toward the warmer side of the data spectrum. The clouds will clear last over the southern part of the forecast area, which complicates the temperature forecast there. However, probabilities for highs at 75F or higher align well with the current forecast. Relative humidities will fall near or below threshold for fire weather concerns, however winds will be light enough to negate the need for a warning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 347 PM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

Thu-Fri: Well above average temperatures and dry conditions will persist.. as the Tri-State area remains on the subsident southern periphery /anticyclonic shear side/ of a strong SW (Thu) to W (Fri) upper level jet.. and a low-level (850 mb) pattern characterized by modest troughing in the lee of the central Rockies.

Sat-Sun (Concise): Broadly speaking, expect dry conditions and a noticeable cooling trend with highs in the mid 50's to lower 60's on Sat and upper 30's to lower 40's on Sun.

Sat-Sun (Detailed): Complicated. An increasingly sheared, positively tilted upper trough moving ashore the Pacific Coast (Fri) will slow in forward progress and assume a SW-NE orientation (extending northeastward from central CA to the northern Rockies) on Sat then undergo a complex transition/ fracture on Sat-Sun, the southern portion of which will evolve into a cut-off low that retrogrades and stalls offshore the southern Pacific Coast.. and the northern portion of which will evolve into a W-E oriented shear axis over the Central Plains. Meanwhile, robust shortwave energy progged to dig SSE through British Columbia (Fri) will amplify into a robust upper level low that progresses ESE across the northern Rockies (Sat), Dakotas (Sat night) and Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes (Sun) and that profound synoptic subsidence in the wake of this feature will drive an Arctic airmass southeastward from Alberta/ Saskatchewan into the Dakotas (Sat) and Upper Midwest (Sun). Guidance indicates that the core of the Arctic airmass (characterized by 850 mb temps -25C) will be confined to the Dakotas and Upper Midwest.. and that the southern/modified fringe of said airmass (characterized by 850 mb temps -4 to -8C) will surge southward into the Tri-State area Sat aft-eve and remain in place through Sun. Aside from a fleeting period of low-level frontogenesis accompanying the frontal passage Sat evening, guidance suggests that forcing will either be absent or insufficient to overcome an otherwise subsident/suppressive synoptic environment (e.g. confluent flow aloft). With this in mind, precipitation is not anticipated in the NWS Goodland county warning area.

Mon-Tue: Long range guidance suggests that NW flow aloft will prevail in the lee of the central Rockies early next week.. between an amplifying western CONUS ridge and pronounced troughing /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS. Expect dry conditions and a warming/moderating trend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 357 PM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR conditions and light/variable winds will prevail through the TAF period at both terminals, with ceilings confined to cirrus at or above 20,000 ft AGL.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1206 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Well above average temperatures will persist through the remainder of the week. Some locations may approach monthly (December)record highs. For reference, average highs this time of year are ~40F.

================================ Record Highs for December 24 ================================ Burlington.........79 in 1955 Goodland...........77 in 1955 McCook.............74 in 1964 Hill City..........67 in 2021

================================ Record Warmest Lows December 24 ================================ Burlington.........37 in 1971 Goodland...........32 in 1940 McCook.............33 in 2024 Hill City..........34 in 1940

================================ Record Highs for December 25 ================================ Burlington.........67 in 1929 Goodland...........74 in 1950 McCook.............70 in 1929 Hill City..........76 in 1950

================================ Record Highs for December 26 ================================ Burlington.........77 in 1980 Goodland...........69 in 2005 McCook.............68 in 2008 Hill City..........73 in 2021

================================ Monthly (December) Record Highs ================================ Burlington.........81 in 1939 Goodland...........83 in 1964 McCook.............81 in 1964 Hill City..........83 in 1964

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.