textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Rains showers and maybe a storm or two are forecast to move through the areas this afternoon and evening.

- Dense fog is possible tonight and into Monday morning.

- Near normal temperatures, expected around Thanksgiving.

- Keeping a close eye on a system late next weekend, which could bring in cold temperatures and snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 249 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today is forecast to start warm and clear for most of the area with dry air still mostly in place. Those east of Highway 83 and south of Highway 40 may see some patches of fog this morning as some low level moisture still lingers in the area. As we head into the afternoon, an upper cut-off low/trough is forecast to move just southwest of the area. As it does, it is forecast to bring some moisture into the area along with a broad low pressure system. This should form some showers on the leading edge of the surface and upper low, moving from southwest to northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. A dry slot is forecast to wrap into the low this morning, which will limit the precipitation chances for the area to the initial band passing through. After that, a few spotty showers may linger where the dry slot does not intrude, mainly Eastern Colorado (wrap around side) and those east of Highway 83 (area forecast to be ahead of the dry slot. A few storms may be able to mix in as clear skies ahead of the low will allow for temperatures to warm to around 60 and maybe allow for a few hundred jules of MUCAPE.

Later in the evening and into the overnight, there could be a few showers lingering. However, the dry slot should be over most of the area and inhibit precipitation chances as a whole. That being said, the low moisture is forecast to efficiently wrap into the area as the center of the low pressure is forecast to become a bit more defined just south of the area. With the moisture moving in from the east and the surface dry air further to the south, dense fog is forecast to develop wherever rain is not falling. Currently, this seems to favor Northwest Kansas based on recent guidance, but the entire area will have a chance. With the rain and fog in the area, temperatures are not forecast to change much during the night, likely staying in the 30s and 40s.

Monday, the upper and surface low are forecast to push off to the east during the day. This should end any lingering precipitation during the morning hours. However, fog/drizzle could continue through most of the day depending on how fast the surface low shifts east. The current forecast has the moisture clearing Eastern Colorado during the morning, with most of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska clearing during the afternoon. Temperatures should be in the 40s and 50s, with mid to upper 50s for those who have skies clear early in the day.

Tomorrow night, another upper trough is forecast to slide through the Plains and bring in higher pressure. With colder air moving into the area and clearer skies, temperatures are forecast to drop into the 20s with some high teens possible.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 203 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tuesday will start off with 850mb winds blasting in from the north as a low pressure system across the Northern Plains exits to the Great Lakes region. We could see gusts of 30-35 mix to the surface during the day. This will keep highs in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday. During this time, northwesterly upper-level flow will move over the region.

Thanksgiving, a ridge looks to move over the High Plains from the west. This will help clear up the skies some and allow temperatures to warm into the 50s across the western CWA. Depending on the timing of the ridge, the eastern CWA could also warm into the 50s, but is currently forecast to remain in the mid 40s due to a slower ridge passage. Friday looks to be fairly similar to Thursday, except most of the area will warm into the low to mid 50s.

Lows Tuesday night through Thursday night will have a gradual warming trend. Tuesday will be the coolest as temperatures drop into the mid teens. By Thursday night, lows in the mid 20s are expected across the area.

Friday night, the GFS and ECMWF are showing a shortwave trough moving across the Great Plains. This will have a 10-15% chance of producing some light precipitation and could lower temperatures Friday night into the low 20s. If the shortwave does not occur, there will not be precipitation Friday night and lows will mimic Thursday night.

Sometime between Saturday evening and Monday morning, our next strong low will impact the region. With it being 7 days out and multiple systems occurring ahead of it, there is a lot of uncertainty. However, we are expecting northwesterly winds, colder temperatures, and precipitation, very likely snow. There is an outside (<5%) chance this system could produce blowing snow, heavily impacting visibility and travel. There is also a 20-40% chance temperatures will drop below 10 degrees during this system, with the coolest temperatures being in the northwestern CWA.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1014 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

An incoming system is forecast to degrade flight categories from late afternoon through the end of this TAF period. Cloud cover is increasing along with the threat of showers impacting GLD first then MCK. I can't completely rule out a rogue lightning strike for either terminal but confidence is around 10-15% in that so will monitor for this potential as the afternoon goes on. Stratus and some fog/drizzle is forecast to follow these showers along with ceilings becoming IFR to eventually LIFR. Winds are forecast to become breezy this afternoon with gusts of 20-30 knots. Be aware of shifting winds as well as a low pressure system develops on top of the area.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.