textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures and dry conditions persist today and Tuesday.

- Windy towards the latter part of the work week. Blowing dust may be possible. Increasing potential for adverse fire weather.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

Synoptic Overview: An omega block, the center (ridge) of which will be anchored over the Pacific Coast and Intermountain West, will dominate the synoptic pattern over the CONUS this week. The Tri State Area will be situated at/near an inflection point in the synoptic pattern, between an amplifying west CONUS ridge and an amplifying east CONUS trough.. in NW to N flow aloft.

Today-Tonight: With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern during the past 24-hr, expect sensible weather conditions similar to yesterday.. albeit slightly warmer with a 10-20 mph NW breeze. Locally cooler temperatures will persist in areas with lingering snow cover.. southern Greeley/Wichita counties, in particular, where highs may struggle to exceed the lower 40's.

Tuesday: Upper level flow over the Rockies and High Plains (eastern periphery of the amplifying west CONUS ridge) will strengthen and shift to the NNW (Tue aft) and N (Tue night). In the lower levels, a broad (albeit increasingly west-east oriented) surface trough will persist through the afternoon, fostering sensible weather conditions similar to today, albeit slightly warmer and breezier.. and with increasing mid-upper level cloud cover during the late afternoon. Expect highs in the lower-mid 60's and NW winds at 10-20 mph (south of I-70) to 20-30 mph (north of I-70). Forecast soundings suggest that vertical mixing could facilitate gusts to ~40 mph in far northern portions of the area (along/north of Hwy 36).. if insolation/mixing aren't substantially affected by increasing cloud cover (in advance of shortwave energy digging southward through the Dakotas) during the late afternoon.

Fire Weather (Tuesday): Marginal fire weather concerns along/ north of I-70, where relative humidity readings ~20-30% are the primary limiting factor (precluding what would otherwise be critical fire weather conditions).

Tuesday night: Shortwave energy digging southward through the Dakotas (Tue aft) will rapidly progress south through central- eastern Nebraska (Tue eve) and Kansas/Oklahoma (Tue night).. while separate/distinct (and more robust) shortwave energy in Manitoba/Ontario digs southward through MN-WI and the Upper Great Lakes. Synoptically-driven surface pressure rises in the Dakotas will drive an inverted inverted surface ridge southward through the Tri-State area Tue eve (shortly after sunset, ~00Z Wed), the leading edge of which will manifest as a northerly wind shift and effective cold frontal passage. Forecast soundings suggest that a brief (1-2 hour) period of strong (~35-45 mph) north winds may accompany the effective cold frontal passage Tue evening. Guidance continues to indicate that cold advection will be modest in nature, and that.. turbulent mixing assoc/w breezy north winds will, more than anything, hamper radiational cooling, resulting in warmer temperatures (compared to previous nights) ranging from the mid 30's (north) to lower 40's (south) by sunrise Wed morning. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out in vicinity of the Tri-State border Tue eve/night.. mainly between ~03-08Z when both dry-bulb and wet- bulb temperatures will be well above freezing. Measurable precipitation is not anticipated.

Wed-Wed night: The Tri-State Area will remain at/near an inflection point in the synoptic pattern, between a pronounced west CONUS ridge and a pronounced east CONUS trough.. in northerly flow aloft. Dry conditions persist. Synoptic subsidence in the wake of robust shortwave energy digging southward through the Upper Great Lakes (Tue night) will drive an Arctic airmass (850 mb temps -15 to -23C) southward through the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes (Wed morning) and into the Ohio Valley (Wed afternoon).. well east of the Tri-State area.. far enough, that.. even the western fringe of the Arctic airmass (850 mb temps < -2C) will likely be confined east/downhill of the Goodland county warning area. Nevertheless, modest cold advection in the wake of the effective cold frontal passage (Tue night-Wed morning) will foster noticeably cooler (albeit still above average) highs ranging from the mid 40's to lower 50's, coolest in eastern portions of the area. Breezy (~20-30 mph) north winds will weaken from west to east during the mid-late afternoon and further diminish to light/variable after sunset. Guidance suggests that a modest southerly return flow regime will rapidly ensue late Wed night / very early Thu morning.. and that overnight lows (~23-29F) may occur prior to sunrise, particularly in western portions of the area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 109 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

The extended forecast period shows an upper trough extending west to east from the Great Lakes to New England, and southward to the Gulf Coast. A ridge sets up over the western CONUS with northwest flow over the Tri-State area. Expect a warm up as warmer air advects into the region. Widespread 50s with a few low 60s are expected for highs. Westerly winds shift to the northwest by mid-morning, increasing to around 15-25mph for KS and NE and up to 30mph for northeastern Colorado. Wind gusts as high as 45mph will be possible. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected, with RH values falling into the low to mid-20s for areas along and west of a line from Indianola to Oakley. Some blowing dust may also be possible.

Friday is of particular concern for potential blowing dust and gusty winds. There may also be a fire weather risk during the afternoon hours. A mid-level trough digs southward through the day, with northwest flow over the region. With the trough pushing south, there is a very tight pressure gradient expected to come over the region, which will help enhance gusty winds. Lapse rates, surface winds and 0.5-1km winds are all looking favorable for the potential for some blowing dust issues. With northwest winds and a favorable source region in addition to environmental conditions, we'll continue to monitor the potential for dust issues over the coming days.

As far as fire concerns for Friday, minimum RH values will fall into the mid to upper teens for ares along and west of a line from Wray, Colorado to Russell Springs and Leoti, Kansas. Winds gusting above 35mph are expected for much of the day. Near- critical fire weather conditions will be possible through the day.

Also of note with Friday is the potential of high temperatures occurring in the morning hours Friday, with colder air pushing in from the north/northeast during the day. Don't have 100% confidence in this scenario at this point in time; however, 850mb temperatures show a gradual decrease through the day, indicating the potential for highs to occur earlier in the day, particularly for areas in the northeastern part of the CWA. Expected highs will top out in the low to mid-40s.

There remains a blowing dust and fire weather potential for Saturday as the trough slowly slips to the east. Minimum RH values will not be quite as low as Thursday, bottoming out in the mid to upper 20% range. Winds gusting 25-40mph are also expected. Highs will once again be in the 40s.

Sunday into the start of next week, expect temperatures to rebound back into the 50s as a ridge pushes east over the Tri- State area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 440 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both terminals. While cloud cover is expected to move over at time through the period, most of the heights should be above 7500 feet. There could be some ceilings closer to 3000ft around 21-00Z as some moisture moves in from the north. Otherwise, winds should remain roughly from the west/northwest around 10 kts until 18Z when the pressure gradient tightens and winds gust closer to 20-25 kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 245 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

At 2106 UTC (3:06 pm CST) this afternoon, the temperature at McCook was 66F. This ties the previous record high temperature for the date (January 12), set in 1953.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.