textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions will roughly be the same through Monday. Highs in the 80s/90s, lows in the 50s/60s, and winds around 10-20 mph for most of the area. - There may be increased fire danger today around the Tri-State border area, if the drier air and stronger wind gusts to 35 mph can overlap.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1210 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Current observations have broad upper ridging over much of the Southern United States, an upper trough digging into the Northwestern United States, and Hurricane Isaias pushing into the Southeastern United States. This pattern is forecast to somewhat stagnate the next few days and keep our conditions similar over much of the weekend and into early next week.

Today, high temperatures are again forecast to reach the 80s and 90s underneath sunny skies. The low pressure system that is near the area isn't forecast to change much either outside of maybe broadening sightly. With this, winds for most of the area will again be 15-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph, while winds near the Tri-State border stay more around 10-15 with gusts to 25 mph. Briefly critical fire weather conditions will then be possible again for the Tri- State area with relative humidity dropping into the low teens. Thankfully, the strongest winds and driest conditions look to be offset again. Tonight, winds will likely stay around 10-15 mph and help keep temperatures in the 60s. A few high clouds may begin to pass over the area as the upper jet sags south with the deepening trough in the west.

For Sunday, the upper trough in the west is forecast to deepen. However, it is unlikely to advance east with the ridge and hurricane remnants blocking it downstream. With this, we likely will see temperatures again in the 80s and 90s. The main differences are that there might be more high level cloud cover with moisture streaming through the jet, and winds at the surface could be a bit lighter. The surface low is forecast to advance a bit more into the area, but is favored to become more diffuse and lead to a weak pressure gradient. Sunday night is forecast to continue the lows in the 60s with some cloud cover still streaming through. Winds may be light though as we get later into the night.

Monday, the upper pattern still isn't forecast to change much, especially with ensemble spreads favoring the western trough lagging or staying put. The main difference is that we may have a slow moving cold front from the low slowly pushing southeast. If this is the case, temperatures would be more app to stay in the 80s along the Nebraska border, with the rest of the area reaching the 90s. Otherwise, winds are forecast to be around 10-20 mph again with some passing mid to high level cloud cover. Monday night may bring a return of temperatures dropping into the 40s if we can have clear skies inbetween the cloud cover. This would favor northern portions of the area as the colder air tries to advect into the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 231 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

On tuesday, upper-level southwesterly flow continues over the area as we are behind a ridge to the east and in front of a deep trough system to the southwest. This will allow a shortwave trough to move into the area in the afternoon with a possible surface low pressure system to the west. This would lead to afternoon showers north of I-70 and weak thunderstorms in the southeast portions of the forecast area as upslope low level moisture will be fed in from the southeast. However, there is low confidence (30%) that the surface low will form and showers to occur.

Wednesday, the upper-level pattern path remains similar as the upper-level trough moves closer and into the Four Corners region. However, uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper- level trough starts to grow throughout the period. This will lead into morning showers and potential strong and low topped thunderstorms in the afternoon. The main driving factors for thunderstorms are potential CAPE values above 500 J/kg and a strong surface to 3 km wind shear profile. The main potential hazard will be strong winds up to 50 mph. While confidence for showers are medium (50-65%), confidence for severe weather are lower (at 25%).

Thursday, the upper-level pattern will start to change from southwesterly flow to northwesterly as the trough moves through the area. Timing of the trough is still inconsistent and becomes even more variable. Although, a dry cold front is forecast to pass through and push any remaining showers to the northeast. If the trough speeds up, it could pass through the early morning hours and have drier conditions. If the trough slows down, it will then allow more time for precipitation to accumulate and have warmer afternoon temperatures.

Friday, as the upper-level troughs moves further northeast, it is likely to merge with a secondary upper-level trough to the north. This could lead to cooler temperatures than expected with calm winds from the north as an additional cold front could pass through.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period with clear skies. The main thing to watch for is low level wind shear, both through the first 6 hours of the period and then after 00Z Sunday. The low level jet is forecast to develop around 300-500 ft with speeds around 40 kts. Otherwise, winds at the surface will remain from the south, with gusts occasionally to 20-30 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.