textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Noticeably cooler today with highs in the 50's.

- Red Flag Warning in effect for the majority of the area on Saturday, when above normal temperatures, dry conditions and breezy S to SW winds may lead to rapid wildfire growth.

- Warming back up to end the weekend and begin the next week.

- Low potential for active weather early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 955 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

In coordination/collaboration with surrounding WFOs, the Fire Weather Watch on Saturday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning everywhere except in Yuma County, CO.. where light winds are likely to limit/mitigate critical fire weather potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 132 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The early morning hours have seen showers and cold air move into the area. While the showers aren't doing too much with the dry air in the lowest few thousand feet, a few areas across the area should be lucky enough to see some drops or maybe even a few hundredths. A few snow flakes may also mix in before sunrise as we continue to slowly cool into the 30s and towards freezing.

The showers should come to an end as the mid-level moisture driving them continues to move south while the upper shortwave pushes east/southeast. Winds should also begin to lower as the center of the high pressure moves more over the area. As such, today is forecast to be fairly benign with highs in the 50s, clearing skies and lighter winds.

Tonight, the high pressure is forecast to begin shifting to the east while low pressure develops along the Front Range. This is forecast to increase the winds as the night goes on from west to east. Speed are forecast to climb into the 15-30 mph range with gusts around 30- 50 mph. Depending on how strong the low level jet can become, a few 60 mph gusts are not out of the question for Eastern Colorado. Temperatures are currently forecast to be around freezing, but may be a few degrees warmer depending on how mixed the area is by the winds.

Saturday, the strong winds are forecast to continue, albeit potentially a bit slower as the the low begins to expand. The current forecast is for speeds around 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph. With the upper ridge trying to re-establish and the southerly low level flow, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s and 80s. This should help lower the relative humidity into the teens as the day goes on. The combination of low RH and breezy winds would lead to critical fire weather conditions and is why a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. There are two uncertainties that led to a watch instead of a warning. The first is how fast/far east the low pressure will expand east. There is the possibility, especially for counties along the Colorado border that the low expand over these areas and weakens the winds. This would occur before relative humidity could drop into the mid teens during the late morning and early afternoon hours and end the threat. As for the rest of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska, the uncertainty in these areas is the humidity. With the colder air mass closest to these areas, temperatures may not warm up enough for relative humidity to drop below 20%. This would prevent the critical fire weather conditions, though increased fire danger would remain with the breezy winds.

Saturday evening and into the overnight hours, the low pressure is forecast to spread more over the area and the Plains. As it does so, winds should lighten overnight to 10 mph or less as the night goes on. There is a small chance for some showers in Eastern Colorado as some 700-500mb moisture moves over the area, but the very dry lower levels should keep most of it from reaching the ground. Temperatures should be a bit warmer than the prior night with lows close to 40.

Sunday, the surface low is forecast to broaden across more of the Plains and put the area in a weak pressure gradient. With the upper level flow to become more zonal or a broad low amplitude ridge, winds should be relatively weak through most of the column. This right now is keeping the critical fire weather conditions threat low in spite of temperatures warming into the 80s and relative humidity dropping into the teens. The highest chance looks to be in Eastern Colorado if a small embedded wave can slightly increase the flow around 700mb and allow for gusts around 25-30 mph.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Will see a progressive upper pattern this period with several shortwave troughs moving across the CONUS. This will result in at least some chances for precipitation for the area, but QPF appears that it will be light and impacts minimal.

The period will start with fire weather concerns once again on Monday. Westerly winds are forecast with gusts of 25 to 35 mph (highest in Colorado) and relative humidity minimums of 10-20% (lowest in Colorado). Instability remains east of the area so not expecting any convection. For Tuesday, models are trending faster with a frontal passage, possibly as early as Monday night, resulting in a cooler but breezy/windy day. Even with cooler temperatures may see fire weather concerns with northerly winds gusting 35-45 mph and afternoon relative humidity forecast to be 15-20%. Wednesday will see a somewhat stronger shortwave moving out of the Rockies, with rain and snow chances Wednesday night into Thursday. However, there are some suggestions that the area may be dry slotted and the precip remains east. Temperatures could be cold enough for light snow Wednesday night if precipitation does develop, but probabilities for impactful amounts of greater than one inch are currently less than 5%. Not expecting any fire weather concerns on Wednesday with easterly winds and higher humidity. Low level return flow sets up on Thursday with breezy to windy conditions. Higher percentile gusts are around 55 mph in Colorado Thursday afternoon with humidity of 20-25%. A few showers are possible as well through Thursday night with an upper low moving through the northern Rockies and a trough axis extending south.

Temperature trends for the period will start with much above normal highs on Monday (mid to upper 80s), cooling off somewhat on Tuesday (70s) but with some uncertainty regarding timing of a frontal passage, near normal temperatures on Wednesday (upper 50s to lower 60s) and slightly above normal on Thursday (60s). Low temperatures will be in the 40s early in the period, then cooling into the 20s and 30s for late in the period with the coldest temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 955 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with cloud cover confined above ~8,000 ft AGL. NE winds at 10-15 knots will weaken to 5-10 knots and veer to the E and SE this afternoon. Winds will veer to the SSE or S and increase to 10-15 knots after sunset and further increase to 15-25 knots late this evening and overnight. A strengthening southerly low- level jet may foster LLWS for several hours on either side of sunrise Saturday, depending on vertical mixing / magnitude of surface winds. S winds will increase to 20-30 knots with gusts up to 35-40 knots by late morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with cloud cover confined to transient cirrus above ~18,000 ft AGL. Light (5-10 knot) NE winds will veer to the E this afternoon. Winds will veer to the SE or SSE and increase to 10-15 knots this evening and further increase to 15-25 knots overnight. A strengthening southerly low-level jet may foster LLWS for several hours on either side of sunrise Saturday, depending on vertical mixing / magnitude of surface winds. S winds will increase to 20-30 knots with gusts up to 35-40 knots by late morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ253- 254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081.