textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to record high temperatures are possible across portions of the area Christmas Day. No white Christmas this year.

- Cooling trend this weekend with near-average temperatures on Sunday followed by a warming/moderating trend early next week.

- 20% chance of rain/snow across the northwest portion of the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Little to no accumulation currently forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1258 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows southerly flow from the West Coast into the Great Basin ahead of a trough approaching from the west. A ridge continued over Mexico and the Gulf, extending north into the Plains. Water vapor imagery shows dry air over the Central Plains, but higher water vapor concentration were moving in from the west.

For the rest of today light winds will continue over the forecast area as the stronger low level winds shift out of the forecast area, or the warm air advection has produced an inversion to prevent the breezy low level winds from reaching the ground where these winds have yet to move east.

Tonight dew points around 30F will keep lows very warm for this time of year; near record values for the warmest low depending on what day the low occurs. Moisture advection should remain just east of the forecast area, so am not anticipating any fog at this time.

Thursday a backdoor cold front will brush the eastern part of the forecast area. This will move cold air advection over locations roughly east of Highway 83. However highs still look to be 20 degrees above normal. Over the western part of the forecast area clouds will move in. Raised highs a few degrees between the clouds moving in from the west and the cooler air mass over the eastern part of the forecast area as the setup looks similar to today and Monday for highs being near record values. This also lines up well with the probability for high temperatures exceeding 74F. However, based on past warm days this month the current forecast may still be two to three degrees too cool. Due to the large dew point depressions overhead, am not anticipating any precipitation with the frontal passage.

Thursday night rather high dew points for this time of year will cause record to near record values for the warmest lows. There will be weak dry air advection which should prevent fog from forming.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 142 AM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Longwave troughing across the western CONUS is forecast to be ongoing starting the extended period Saturday leading to another day of above normal temperatures for the area. High temperatures are again forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. If troughing can remain deep enough and winds can remain westerly would not be surprised if temperature come up a few degrees if that signal does continue.

The main focus currently for the extended is with a modest cold front moving through anytime from Saturday evening to Sunday morning. GEFS still continues to be quicker with the front with the Saturday evening timing and the ECMWF-AIFS and ECMWF moves it through Sunday morning. The main change that is seen with the front is there may be the potential for light rain or snow behind the frontal passage. GFS and ECMWF cross section analysis both show a more moist and deep atmospheric profiles. Weak omega is seen in the mid levels and dendritic growth zone of the GFS from the effects of the trough and additional omega is seen near the surface from effects of the cold front. Overall little to rain/snow amounts are currently anticipated but interestingly enough the ECMWF does show some surface CAPE in soundings which may support some localized dusting to perhaps light accumulation. GFS also does show some seeder feeder potential as well. Will be interesting to see if this trend towards precipitation will hold. The biggest potential hazard especially if we do get precipitation is with flash freeze potential with the front as 850mb temperatures fall to around minus 7C. Current ground temperatures are in the upper 30s to low 40s so will be something that will need to be watched closely. The current favored area for rain/snow is across Yuma, Kit Carson, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) counties but is completely plausible it can spread a little further east as well. High temperatures for the day Sunday have come down quite a bit into the mid 30s for highs.

The cool down does look to be short lived as ridging is forecast to return to the western CONUS and a developing system across the Baja Peninsula leads to warm air advection into the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1012 AM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light northwest winds will become variable this evening then should become more southerly for KGLD; however variable winds will continue for KMCK.

CLIMATE

Issued at 142 AM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Well above average temperatures will persist through the remainder of the week. Some locations may approach monthly (December)record highs. For reference, average highs this time of year are ~40F.

================================ Record Highs for December 24 ================================ Burlington.........79 in 1955 current forecast....76 Goodland...........77 in 1955 current forecast....75 McCook.............74 in 1964 current forecast.... 69 Hill City..........67 in 2021 current forecast.... 68

================================ Record Warmest Lows December 25 (Christmas morning) ================================ Burlington.........34 in 1928 Goodland...........35 in 1971 McCook.............27 in 2024 Hill City..........35 in 1959

================================ Record Highs for December 25 ================================ Burlington.........67 in 1929 current forecast....73 Goodland...........74 in 1950 current forecast....73 McCook.............70 in 1929 current forecast....61 Hill City..........76 in 1950 current forecast....62

================================ Record Warmest Lows December 26 (Friday morning) ================================ Burlington.........34 in 2005 Goodland...........36 in 1980 McCook.............33 in 1979 Hill City..........36 in 2024

================================ Record Highs for December 26 ================================ Burlington.........77 in 1980 current forecast....67 Goodland...........69 in 2005 current forecast....69 McCook.............68 in 2008 current forecast....67 Hill City..........73 in 2021 current forecast....69

================================ Monthly (December) Record Highs ================================ Burlington.........81 in 1939 Goodland...........83 in 1964 McCook.............81 in 1964 Hill City..........83 in 1964

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.