textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Low chances around 10-30% each day for a few isolated storms through much of the work week.

- Limited wind and hail threat with stronger storms through the week, but overall severe risk will be low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

For today, expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon along a trough/stationary front in northeast Colorado, as well as further south along the Kansas/Colorado border area south of Interstate 70. Both instability and shear are weaker compared to previous days, but there is a relative maximum across southwest Nebraska where up to 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of 0-6 km shear is forecast. This would be the most likely area for a severe storm between 00z-03z, but coverage, if any, will be very low. CAMs show all convection dissipating after 03z and no further development through the night.

Wednesday will be similar to today, with low probabilities of an isolated afternoon storm initiating on any remnant mesoscale boundaries in the area. Instability and shear continue to be weak and the probability of severe weather low. Most convection will be in the mountains and Front Range with a slow migration across the eastern Colorado plains through the evening hours. That activity has a low probability of making it to the Colorado/Kansas border area late in the evening, but in a much weakened state, dissipating by around 06z.

Thursday, the lee trough will mix eastward into Kansas during the afternoon, with westerly winds and slightly lower dew points in its wake. This boundary may set up in the far eastern portion of the forecast area, McCook to Hill City, in the afternoon, with weak to moderate instability on the eastern side of it where southerly winds persist. 3-km NAM shows convection initiating on that boundary late in the afternoon, but just east of the area. RFS has a similar surface pattern but does not initiate convection. Deep layer shear remains unfavorable for organized, sustained updrafts at around 20 kts. So, both storm coverage and probability of severe storms will remain low.

Southwest flow continues on Friday with the upper ridge starting to rebuild into the Plains from the east. Afternoon convection is forecast to develop along the Front Range and in southeast Colorado. Southern activity may reach areas south of Interstate 70 late in the afternoon and rest of the area in the evening, while Front Range convection will be slow to arrive, if it ever does, with the northeasterly storm motions. Instability looks somewhat better with low level moisture return and dew points back into the lower 60s, and there is a modest increase in deep layer shear to 20-30 kts. As a result, may see a slight increase in the risk for wind and hail, but the weak forcing will likely result in limited coverage.

Temperatures through the period will remain above normal. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s in Colorado to the upper 90s and lower 100s in Kansas and Nebraska each day.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Saturday throughout Tuesday, the upper level ridge starts to weaken over the weekend and plateau over the Central and Northern Plains before sliding to the east at the end of the period. There is some uncertainty within the guidance as the low pressure in the Northwest Pacific coast starts to move east causing some inconsistencies within the models. Although, this will help temperatures continue to be above normal and bring in potential chances for rain later in the period as embedded shortwave troughs become more prevalent. High confidence (70-80%) that temperatures will start in the mid to upper 90s Saturday and drop into the mid 90s Sunday. Confidence drops to low (30%) on Monday as NBM 75th to 25th percentile temperature spread becomes more than 10 degrees over the northern half of the County Warning Area (CWA). This could see potential highs within the low 90s for both Monday and Tuesday due to possible showers.

Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) for showers later in the period has increased overnight due to the low pressure potentially moving east with continuing upper level southwesterly flow and diurnal heating still being the main driving force. There is high confidence (70%) for showers on Saturday as not much change has happened with it still having relatively low chances being around 20% within the majority of the CWA. However, there is low to medium confidence (25-40%) that showers could occur between Sunday night and Tuesday night as there is inconsistency within the upper level pattern and embedded shortwave troughs passing through. Overall, chances for showers to occur will be around 30% in the northwestern half of the CWA and 20% in the southeastern half.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 426 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and occasional high clouds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening have a low probability, less than 20%, of impacting either location.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.