textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog may develop over portions of the area early Friday morning, mainly along and east of a line from Benkelman to Colby and Russell Springs.

- Temperatures near to slightly below normal through the end of the work week.

- A mild weekend is forecast for the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Current observations currently have showers in Greeley and Wichita counties, associated with a surface low moving southeast of the area. There is also a narrow band of sprinkles moving in from the north, likely along the upper trough axis. Both of these are forecast to produce low accumulations, and precipitation should end well before sunrise. The remainder of the night is forecast to remain cloudy with winds around 10-15 mph. This should keep temperatures steady in the 30s and low 40s.

During the daytime hours today, the cloud cover should clear from west to east as a small upper ridge pushes into the area from the west. While the sun is forecast to poke through, the colder air mass that moved in is forecast to keep temperatures cooler in the 40s and low 50s. Winds should remain from the north around 10 mph through the day. Tonight, the winds should become calm as the pressure gradient weakens. With calm winds and clear skies forecast, temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 20s and low 30s. There is a 30% chance that a surface ridge will push into the east, and help some dense fog form in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska close to sunrise. If it did form, it likely wouldn't be very broad and last for a few hours. Still, keep an eye out for sudden visibility reductions.

Friday, the upper ridging is forecast to push off to the east while an upper trough nears from the west. While somewhat amplified, the trough isn't forecast to be very deep. This should lead to a weak low pressure developing just west of the area, with the main impact of the winds shifting to out of the south at 10 mph. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 50s and low 60s are forecast.

Saturday, the upper trough is forecast to split into the main wave through the Northern Plains, and a weak cut-off low in the south/southwestern United States. This is forecast to weaken the pressure gradient over the area and allow for a mild day with light winds and temperatures reaching the 60s underneath sunny skies. No precipitation is currently forecast, with the features forecast to be fairly weak and slightly drier air in place over the area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 256 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

An unusual upper-level flow pattern is expected late Sunday as a trough exits the central CONUS. Ensemble guidance projects meridional flow aloft for the County Warning Area (CWA) as a ridge slides in from the northern Rockies. Most model runs are now anticipating this building ridge to propagate faster to the east than prior runs. Simultaneously, the trough seems to slow down a bit as it makes its way eastward across the southern plains. Northeast upper-level winds should result as the exiting trough becomes more positively tilted than originally thought. Moving on to Monday, said ridge finally pushes the resisting trough away and the system is able to proceed with it's eastward propagation across our region. Initially, northerly flow aloft is expected Monday transitioning briefly to more of a zonal look early Tuesday as the ridge axis passes over the CWA. Weak southwest flow is then forecasted later in the day Tuesday, with zonal flow once again taking over shortly after. Guidance is now starting to lock onto a stronger ridge system beginning to influence our coverage area on Wednesday, ushering in northwest winds at the 300-500mb level.

One may wonder what is to come from this peculiar synoptic setup across the Tri-State area. The answer is likely nothing but dry conditions and seasonably pleasant temperatures as high pressure is set to take control both higher up in the atmosphere and at the surface. Furthermore, moisture content will be quite limited as dewpoints in the 30s/40s and Relative Humidity (RH) values ranging 25-55% are forecast. Surface analysis does anticipate three frontal boundaries to move through during this forecast period (one each on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday) but dry air should limit any chance for precipitation. Therefore, rain will be highly unlikely as Probability of Precipitation fall below 5% for the entire long-term forecast period.

High temperatures, as mentioned above, should be quite pleasant for this time of the year across the CWA. Daily highs in the 60s will be commonplace Sunday through the middle of next week. Overnight lows should follow a slight warming trend. Low temperatures at or above freezing on Sunday morning likely increases to upper 30s/low 40s Monday morning through Wednesday morning. Some locales may not even see morning temps fall below 42 degrees on Wednesday. It is not likely to be very windy at all going into next week as guidance outlines general 5-15 mph winds Sunday through Wednesday with some windier prone areas of eastern Colorado potentially seeing up to 20 mph sustained winds. Sunday likely is the windiest day but gusts shouldn't exceed 25 mph. RH values may dip into the low 20s Sunday/Monday for areas at or west of US-385 and 20-30% for everywhere in the CWA east of there but dry fuels are not anticipated so fire weather chances will be low. Sunday will be the only day to monitor for that but again, there's a very low chance of even elevated fire weather occurring in eastern Colorado.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

GLD: Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS suggest that LIFR fog and/or low ceiling development in south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas could extend as far west as the Sherman/ Thomas county border (15-25 miles E of the Goodland terminal) for a few hours on either side of sunrise Fri morning. At this time, confidence in fog/stratus coverage and western extent is low enough to preclude explicit mention. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with cloud cover confined to scattered cirrus at or above 18,000 ft AGL. may lurk nearby ~10 knot northerly winds will become light/variable shortly before sunset (~23Z) and remain light through the rest of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS suggest that a north-south oriented corridor of dense fog and low stratus will develop over south- central Nebraska and north-central Kansas after midnight CST (~06Z), and that LIFR conditions may expand as far west as Benkelman, NE prior to sunrise (~12Z Fri). Bottom line, there is increasing confidence that an extended period of dense fog and/or stratus may affect the McCook terminal late tonight and Friday morning (~08-16Z Fri). ~10 knot northerly winds will become light/variable shortly before sunset and remain variable overnight. Winds will shift to the S late Fri morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.