textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing fog is possible Saturday morning along and east of KS 25. Localized reductions of visibility down to around 1/2 mile are possible.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Yuma county for Saturday. Elevated to locally critical fire conditions are possible for adjacent counties as well.

- Above average highs expected into early next week.

- A series of weak shortwaves move through the region next week and may bring precipitation. Low confidence on timing and accumulations at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 109 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

A surface high is located across the eastern portions of the area keeping winds light and variable. The main focus through the evening and overnight is on a backdoor cold front where some moisture does look to dam up against the leading edge of the front. There are some signals for some shallow fog development. Patchy dense fog may be possible but at this time not overly concerned for widespread dense fog due to how shallow the saturated layer is. Interesting enough the 12z HREF does show a 30% chance of visibilities falling below 1/2 mile roughly along and east of Highway 25. A few things are playing against the fog formation with the main one being a quicker switch to southerly winds which is not climatologically favorable for fog. Temperatures are forecast to be flirting with freezing so any fog would lead to concerns for freezing fog leading to localized slick spots on elevated surfaces. Roads could become a concern but with the mild temperatures the past few days road and soil temperatures should be warm enough to prevent ice accretion unless fog persists for a prolonged period of time. Stratus seems to be the most likely outcome at this time due to the southerly turn of the winds.

Saturday, essentially a southeast moving warm front moves into the area along a belt of warmer 850mb temperatures around 15C. This will lead to another day of warm temperatures with highs in the 60s to 70s for most. The exception is across our eastern counties where there is some concern that thick stratus could linger through the day leading to cooler temperatures. Have nudged down highs into the upper 50s mainly for southern Graham and Gove counties due to this concern. The NAM is currently the outlier on temperatures as it keeps a really think stratus deck all day with only a high of 40 degrees. Do not quite want to be that aggressive at this time but the NAM typically does do a good job of being the first to pick up on these signals in the past so if confidence does in crease in that potential then highs for those two counties could be around 10-15 degrees to warm on this forecast package.

On the for sure warm side of the CWA high temperatures are forecast to warm to the upper 60s and low 70s. Do have some concerns that highs may end up being a little warmer due to the compression warming along the front. Have also brought dew points down a few degrees as mixing heights are forecast to top out around 5500 feet AGL. RAP, NAM and GFS soundings all show lower dew points aloft which should be easily mixed down. Cross sections do show some cloud cover around 500mb but should be high enough that it should not impact mixing. An increasing 850mb jet around 30-35 knots is forecast to lead to sustained winds of 15-25 mph across northwest portions of the area with gusts up to 35 mph. The GFS, does have bit of stronger jet would support wind gusts up to 45 mph but confidence in gusts that strong is only around 10-20%. With all of this in mind have opted to issue a Red Flag Warning for Yuma county Colorado from 11am through 5pm Saturday due to 80% confidence in at least 3 hours of critical fire weather conditions being met. If the GFS is correct and the 850mb jet is stronger there is potential it may need to be expanded into adjacent counties as well. Confidence in that is only 10-20% at this time. Further east winds are forecast to be more southwesterly ahead of the front around 10-15 mph and more variable just ahead of the front. Wind gust potential is forecast to end around 430-5pm MT with winds reaming still around 10-15 mph through the evening.

Sunday at this time appears to be more tranquil as the area is forecast to be void of any pressure gradients increasing winds. Synoptically northwest flow is forecast to continue along with our mild temperatures with highs forecast to be in the upper 60s across the entire forecast area. Humidity values are forecast to be low in the mid to upper teens but with the lack of wind, fire weather concerns are currently not anticipated.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 149 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Friday, our region is in a predominately northwest flow pattern with a ridge over the Intermountain West and a low developing off the coast of Baja California. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Winds are forecast to be mild and variable for most of Friday, but will briefly pick up Friday afternoon. A weak shortwave moving through the area will cause gusts from 15-20 mph for the northwest portion of the county warning area (CWA). Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the upper teens for our Colorado counties, but with overall weaker wind gusts and Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values below 15 for our Colorado counties, critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

Saturday and Sunday are fairly similar as a ridge continues to be in place over the Intermountain West placing us in a mostly zonal flow. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Winds pick up briefly in the afternoon mainly for our Colorado counties. Saturday will be the windiest day out of the weekend with gusts from 25-30 mph forecast. Winds will quickly diminish after sunset. RH values are forecast in the upper teens and GFDI values are forecast around 30 for western Kit Carson and Yuma counties. This combination could result in a brief window of elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon.

The ridge finally begins to propagate through our CWA Monday. Temperatures will still be above average with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s, but this ridge moving through sets the stage for a potential pattern change next week. We will monitor this synoptic setup for precipitation potential as the week continues.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 311 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions remain forecast for this evening for each terminal. Winds continue to shift to the east and are forecast to become more southeasterly as the evening and night goes on. Confidence remains highest in stratus potential overnight for MCK with GLD remaining more the western periphery of the deck at this time. LLWS still remains a concern as well with highest confidence at MCK as GLD is forecast to remain a bit more mixed with sustained winds around 15 knots. A front is forecast to move into the GLD terminal early afternoon Saturday leading to some wind gust potential up to

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Confidence has increased in multiple hours of critical fire weather conditions occurring across Yuma county for Saturday. A warm front is forecast to move through the area from the northwest as high temperatures are forecast to rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. Mixing is forecast to increase to around 5000 feet AGL during the early afternoon hours which may mix down some drier air aloft which may lead to lower RH values than forecasted. Confidence is high in wind gusts of 30-35 mph, some guidance does have the 850mb wind field which is causing the winds to be a little stronger which would then result in wind gusts up to 45 mph. Confidence in that is only 10-20% at this time however. Even if mixing is not as strong as anticipated surface RH forecasts are still around 16%. With D1 drought creeping back into the county this should still lead to the same fire behavior even if humidity values were to fall a little more. Elevated to locally critical conditions are forecast to occur in adjacent counties (Dundy, Kit Carson, Cheyenne (KS), Sherman). Will need to continue to keep an eye on the potential mixing potential and if the 10-20% chance that winds are stronger then the Red Flag Warning may need to be expanded some.

Sunday and Monday, humidity will be low in the low to upper teens but the overall wind fields are not impressive at all. Sustained winds are forecast to be around 10 mph. Due to diurnal mixing we could see some gusts up to 20 mph across most of the forecast area but should be sporadic and isolated in nature. Due to this the concern for elevated conditions has declined.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ252. NE...None.