textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions are forecast with high temperatures in the 80s.

- Could see patchy fog in the Southwestern portions of the CWA.

- Increased fire danger is forecast Friday and Saturday, especially in for counties along the Colorado border. Relative humidity may drop into the teens with gusts around 30 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Current observations show the upper level ridge remaining near the Western Rockies, maintaining northwest flow aloft and keeping the main jet stream to the north near the US/Canada border. At the surface, clear skies and light, variable winds are expected through the early morning hours.

Clear skies, warm, and dry conditions will likely continue through Thursday night. Our overall pattern changes little during this time, though another upper level trough moves across the Great Lakes early Thursday morning, reinforcing the northwesterly flow for us. A surface high will likely build in from Colorado today as yesturday's front stalls out, keeping highs in the 80s across much of the Tri- State area with light winds around 5-10 mph. Nighttime lows will likely remain in the 50s.

Late tonight, patchy fog may develop across southwestern portions of the County Warning Area (CWA). Light easterly upslope flow combined with clear skies and small temperature and dew point differences (1- 5 degrees) could favor localized fog formation, reducing visibilities to 6-8 miles until around sunrise on Thursday. On Thursday, winds pick up slightly to 10-15 mph with gusts around 25 mph west of Kansas Highway 27. Fire weather concerns remain low (5- 10%), as relative humidity values of 20-25% stay above critical thresholds.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Friday and Saturday, the area is forecast to be stuck in the middle of multiple features with an upper trough over the Western United States and Northern Plains, while a hurricane pushes into the Ohio River Valley. In spite of all these features in the United States, this should leave the area in a relatively stagnant pattern with a surface low hanging around the High and Northern Plains that extends into the area. This should keep southerly low level flow and dry air place over the area, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s. The dry air and warm temperatures are forecast to have relatively humidity lower into the teens and 20s during the afternoon, with the lowest values for counties along the Colorado border. With the pressure gradient over the area keeping winds around 15-20 mph and gusts around 30 mph, there is increasing concern for at least a few hours of critical fire weather conditions. But with ensemble spread charts showing most of the features could either shift or become more broad, don't have the confidence to issue any products yet as conditions could still change a bit. One of the things I am more confident in is the lack of precipitation. While we have features near/over the area, the air will likely be too dry for anything to form, keeping our precip chances under 5%.

Sunday and early next week remain a mess with two northern upper troughs possible along the the upper low over the Western United States potentially moving near the area. For now, it is likely that we will have westerly/southwesterly flow with all these features that should bring some mid to high level moisture into the area. The increased cloud cover and influence of the upper troughs trying to push the surface low east and allow for cold air advection should lead to cooler temperatures for that start of the week. For now, the forecast is that temperatures lower each day by about 5 degrees with highs forecast to be in the mid 60s be mid-week. With the uncertainty in how strong each feature will be and when it will advance, some ensemble solutions suggest much colder air would be possible. Even so, the chance for freezing temperatures is only around 5-10%. This has also severely lower the snow chances hinted at by prior runs in guidance. What hasn't lowered is the chance for precipitation with the influx of mid and upper level moisture. While unlikely to be widespread or lead to decent accumulations due to dry near surface air, Mon-Wed has a 30-50% chance of rain each day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 511 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period. To start the period, generally light variable winds around 5-10 kts and clear skies are forecast until around 18-21Z. From 21Z on winds will likely stay around 5-10 kts, but come from the southeast.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.