textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low (20-30%) chance for a snow squall to develop in northeast CO this aft-eve, mainly in Yuma/Kit Carson between 3-9 PM MST. 1-3 inches of accumulating snow, N wind gusts up to 35 mph and significant reductions in visibility (below 1 mile) with blowing snow may create locally treacherous travel conditions.

- Warm and dry late weekend through next week with fire weather concerns especially late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 254 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Through Tonight: A modest upper level low centered in vicinity of south-central CO at 21 UTC this afternoon (per 500 mb SPC mesoanalysis and inference from regional radar trends) will weaken / become increasingly sheared as it meanders east toward the CO-KS border this afternoon into tonight. Ongoing precipitation broadly associated with this feature will slowly advance eastward from Sterling-Akron-Limon into western Kit Carson/Yuma counties late this afternoon and evening. Simulated reflectivity and precipitation forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST continue to indicate that the majority of measurable precipitation (in the Goodland CWA) will occur in western Yuma/Kit Carson counties between ~21Z this afternoon and 03Z this evening. Surface temperatures/wetbulbs via 21Z observations and thermal profiles via HRRR forecast soundings suggest that, in most locations (i.e. south of Hwy 36).. precipitation will begin as rain, or a rain/snow mix, before transitioning to snow. Snow accumulation potential will be greatest in northern Yuma County, where thermal profiles are readily supportive of snow and precip amounts will be greatest (~0.10 to 0.20" liquid equivalent, 1-2" snow accum). Breezy (25-35 mph) N winds and intermittent periods of moderate to heavy snow may result in significant reductions in visibility with blowing snow and locally treacherous travel conditions, esp. along/north of Hwy 34 (Yuma-Wray) between 2230-0230 UTC (330-730 pm MST).

This Weekend: Expect dry conditions and a noticeable warming trend by the end of the weekend, with highs in the 50's on Saturday and upper 60's to lower 70's on Sunday.. when locally critical fire weather is possible. With well above average temperatures and minimum RH readings ~10-20%, relatively light (10-20 mph) SW winds are the sole limiting factor on Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 110 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

A secluded upper-level low looks to be in place over the Southwest United States and Baja California Monday morning, as a broad, deepening trough enters the United States from the Pacific Northwest. As this takes place, a surface low is favored to set up across portions of the Central High Plains. Surface winds may be out of the west during the morning hours, but flip southerly during the afternoon. As such, warm, dry conditions are favored Monday afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper-70s and relative humidities in the low to mid-teens across much of the CWA. Critical fire weather is not yet a major concern, as wind gusts are not currently forecast to meet criteria for the hazard (25 mph winds or greater). However, GFS and ECMWF model soundings for Monday afternoon indicate the potential for a mixed layer up to about 1.5 km, which could allow stronger winds to mix down to the surface. Winds at the top of the mixed layer may reach a sustained 15-20 knots, which could produce wind gusts 25 mph or greater if they reach the surface. Even so, NBM guidance suggests about a 50% chance or less for wind gusts of this magnitude to be experienced in Eastern Colorado, and even less of a chance for the rest of the Tri- State area. These gusts, if they can occur, are forecast to be brief during the mid to late afternoon. While short spurts of locally critical fire weather may be possible, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Monday sits around 5-10%.

As the trough from the Pacific Northwest digs southeast Monday evening and into Tuesday, the secluded low in the Southwest United States and Baja California Region looks to begin moving eastward as it gets reabsorbed into the main jet stream flow. This is introducing some uncertainty into the forecast, as ridging out ahead of the formerly secluded low competes with cold air from the digging trough. Forecast highs on Tuesday are currently in the upper-60s to mid-70s, though NBM 75th-25th percentile differences for max temperature are 15-20 degrees across the CWA. This would indicate the possibility of high temperatures 5-10 degrees higher or lower than the current forecast. Should the cold front reach the forecast region during the morning hours, cooler temperatures in this range may be experienced. The opposite is true if the pattern progresses slower and allows southerly to westerly flow to remain in place through the afternoon. Additionally, as both of the upper-level features move eastward, there may be a slight chance for precipitation. Current guidance is centering on Tuesday evening and night as the most likely period for precipitation to occur, though could extend into Wednesday morning. Rain is the favored precipitation type, though wintry precipitation could be experienced overnight if temperatures can drop below freezing. Forecasted lows Tuesday night are in the mid-20s to low-30s.

Troughing is favored overhead by Wednesday morning, with northerly winds still in place from the cold front. Cooler conditions are forecast, with high temperatures in the mid to upper-50s. However, ridging upstream of these upper-level features may allow a southerly return flow to develop during the afternoon hours. Timing on this wind shift is a little uncertain. If this process can occur during the early portions of the afternoon, high temperatures may increase around 5 degrees, most particularly across portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. This is represented in 10-13 degree differences in the 75th-25th percentile max temperatures Wednesday afternoon.

Warm, dry conditions look to be in place for the remainder of the forecast period. Southwesterly to westerly surface winds are forecast to overspread the CWA Thursday afternoon in association with ridging overhead and a surface cyclone moving east- southeastward across the Northern Plains. Highs are forecast in the low to mid-70s Thursday, with relative humidities in the mid to upper-teens. Critical fire weather may become a concern, as wind gusts 20-30 kts (23-35 mph) are possible. Similar conditions are in the forecast Friday, with highs in the 70s, relative humidities in the low to mid-teens, and westerly to northwesterly wind gusts of 20- 35 kts (23-40 mph), which could once again create critical fire weather conditions. Going into the weekend, cooler temperatures are favored upon cold frontal passage.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Ongoing MVFR ceilings are likely to persist into tonight. A period of IFR ceilings and/or light snow is possible this evening (01-05Z Sat). Ceilings will lift/scatter late tonight, with VFR conditions expected to return by sunrise Sat morning. 15-25 knot N winds will prevail this afternoon and evening. Breezier (20-30 knot) N winds are possible in/near any precipitation this evening. N winds will gradually back to the NNW and NW overnight, decreasing to 10-15 knots by sunrise Sat.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.