textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance (15-20%) for light wintry precipitation and/or freezing fog in far eastern portions of the area late Sunday morning and again early Monday morning, mainly in Norton and Graham counties.

- Most of next week, there are chances for precipitation across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 119 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

The forecast remains on track for the afternoon as the surface trough moves over the area. We are seeing relative humidity values drop into the mid to low teens already with gusts to ~25 mph possible over the next few hours across the area, creating locally critical fire weather conditions. Burning remains not advised as fuels remain plenty dry across the area and fires can spread quickly. Starting around 2-3 PM MT/3-4 PM CT we should see winds start to decrease before becoming light and variable overnight. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s once again tonight.

On Saturday we see a similar pattern to today with the surface low maturing near Amarillo, Texas and a near-surface area of high pressure over the Rockies. A cold front is expected to push south over the area during the day tomorrow bringing northerly to easterly winds during the late afternoon to evening hours. Ahead of the cold front is another dry day with relative humidity values once again in the low to mid teens across the area. Winds should be similar if not a bit lighter tomorrow at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. The question will be the influence of the cold front as winds shift and whether there are any stronger winds the move in along it.

On Sunday the area of high pressure over the Rockies is expected to move over the Tri-State area while we remain under northwest flow aloft. Guidance favors a surge of moisture in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere from the south mainly moving over Kansas and into west-central Nebraska Sunday afternoon-evening. The slight northwesterly flow in the upper levels will bring in some moisture, just enough to keep a decent cloud covering over us. Along the eastern edge of our area, there are slight chances for a wintry/rain mix beginning late Sunday morning and continuing into Monday. Not currently expecting much for accumulation. There is a 20% chance we could see a glazing of ice and/or a trace of snow in Norton-Graham counties. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the lower 60s (east-central Colorado to the low-mid 40s (east of U.S. Highway 83) for highs and in the 20s overnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1248 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Monday night will see the environment become primed for Tuesday's low and cold front. The low level persistent high over the eastern CONUS will promote efficient moisture advection into the Plains. In the mid layers, southwesterly flow still looks to cause a dry layer. This leads to a fairly shallow layer of moist air at the surface, likely leading to drizzle. NBM has been trying to keep temperatures across the area falling to below freezing by Tuesday morning. However, with the southerly moisture advection, which looks to keep dew points above freezing for most of the area, temperatures will likely remain above freezing. For locations that do drop below freezing for more than ~30 minutes, slick conditions should be expected as ice will start forming.

Tuesday, the the pattern changes as a low pushes through the western CONUS and over the High Plains. The surface low timing is pretty uncertain at this point as the ECMWF has it moving in around 3Z Tuesday, but the GFS and CMC-NH have it around 9-12Z Tuesday morning. The surface front will occur first throughout the column, leaving the mid layers dry. Behind the front, we can expect winds Tuesday to be gusting around 20-30 kts.

The rest of the column looks to saturate in the afternoon Tuesday, as the 500 mb low also enters. This will be the start of our better precipitation chances. However, the NBM shows a 50% chance of precipitation during the late morning. This is likely a combination of the potential for drizzle throughout the day if the inversion remains intact, the FROPA throughout the column occurs at the same time, or variance in ensemble member timing. PoPs are likely too high for Tuesday 12-21Z.

Overnight Tuesday currently looks like the to be the best chance of precipitation from the first low. Temperatures will likely remain above freezing, but there is a 30% chance sub-freezing temperatures occur. Surface and near surface temperatures will have a major impact on the P-type. As it stand, rain looks to dominate with occasional snow mixing in. There are no clear cut signs of a warm nose during our potential freezing times, minimizing the potential for freezing rain or sleet.

Precipitation should be waning by sunrise Wednesday, exiting to the east. Come Thursday, we're looking at a system that's very similar to the Tuesday/Wednesday system. The main difference is the 850 mb low looks to be over the Northern Plains which leads to higher confidence we'll stay above freezing.

Temperatures throughout the long term are chaotic. Low temperatures look to remain around or above freezing through Thursday morning. Friday morning, we'll likely be seeing CAA over the area, causing temperatures to drop into the low 20s. Highs will be on a warming trend through Thursday, peaking in the mid 60s to low 70s, then cooling and peaking around 50 for Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Clear skies will give way to increasing upper level cloud cover (cirrus above ~20,000 ft AGL) Sat afternoon. Light/variable winds will prevail through much of the day on Sat. Winds will definitively shift to the E and increase to 10-20 knots shortly after sunset (~02Z Sun), at the end of the 06Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Clear skies will give way to increasing upper level cloud cover (cirrus above ~15,000 ft AGL) Sat afternoon. Light/variable winds will shift to the NW and increase to 10-20 knots during the late morning (~17Z) and persist through the afternoon. Winds will definitively shift to the E shortly after sunset (~02Z Sun) and become breezy (~15-25 knots) by the end of the 06Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.