textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory issued for tonight. Fog chances continue through Monday morning.

- 40-60% rain chances return today and Saturday morning.

- Early next week may see strong northwesterly winds and precipitation.

UPDATE

Issued at 302 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Due to high confidence in dense fog returning to southwestern Nebraska tonight, into Sunday morning, and collaborating with neighboring offices, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for this area. There is also 70% confidence that the Advisory will need to be expanded down to Cheyenne county in Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1202 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

An 850 mb high over the Ohio River Valley along with a broad low coming over the Rockies is funneling moisture into the High Plains from the Gulf. This moisture advection is expected to persist through the weekend. The moisture advection will work to keep temperatures mild and skies mostly cloudy, as well as keep the fog returning each night.

Up at 500 mb, we are currently sitting under weak southwesterly flow. A broad shortwave trough has been moving across southern Kansas late this morning, moving northward, towards the CWA. This trough will bring in some precipitation chances, mainly in the eastern CWA. The first wave of rain is forecast between 6-12Z Friday morning northeast of a line from Gove, KS to Benkelman, NE. This wave has a 30% chance of forming, but the Friday afternoon precipitation has a 60% chance of occurring. The bulk of this precipitation will be east of the Colorado border, increasing farther east. Prime time for rain will start at 21Z this afternoon. Due to the broad nature of the 500 mb low, precipitation has at least a 30% chance of persisting along and east of KS 25 through 3Z Sunday (Sat evening). Precipitation is expected to be light and accumulations are not forecast to exceed 0.25 inch.

Highs through the short-term are forecast to be in the mid 50s and 60s while lows will be in the 40s to low 50s. As mentioned above, the inflow of moisture will work to keep us saturated and overnight and morning fog remains likely through the short-term. As it stands, there is 50% confidence that dense fog returns tonight for most of the CWA. The main limiting factor for fog is the precipitation. Where moderate to heavier rainfall is occurring, fog will likely be washed out. Fog likely returns Sunday and Monday mornings too, however confidence in dense fog is 45% and 30% respectively.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 312 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Main forecast highlights for Monday are wind and precipitation potential.

We are forecast to be in a weak, mostly southwest flow aloft with a weak jet streak overhead. Previous model runs showed a much stronger jet streak over our area. There is also a weak trough just west of the Rocky Mountains with a second deeper trough digging over the Pacific. A strong cold front is forecast to move in from the northwest setting the stage for a potential high wind day for the county warning area (CWA). A surface low will set up sometime Monday afternoon, but modes diverge on its location, creating uncertainty in the forecast. ECMWF ensembles have the low setting up somewhere in Nebraska while GFS ensembles forecast the low in northwest Kansas or southwest Nebraska. Canadian ensembles are split roughly 50/50 between the ECMWF and GFS solutions. Another notable difference in ensembles is the GFS is showing a much deeper surface low, which is supportive of a tighter pressure gradient and stronger wind potential. So while there is uncertainty in the low location, we have all the necessary ingredients for a high wind day, the intensity is the main question. Where the low sets up and how strong it becomes will determine the severity of the winds. Sky cover will be another factor. Clear skies will allow stronger synoptic winds to mix down to the surface, while cloudy skies will serve as a barrier for stronger winds to make it to the surface.

Winds are expected to pick up in the afternoon after the cold front from the northwest moves through. The entire CWA should expect to see windy conditions, but the counties along and west of the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska borders will see the strongest winds with gusts up to 60 mph possible. The eastern CWA could see gusts up to 40 mph.

Precipitation wise, showers and storms are expected to fire off in the afternoon following the morning cold frontal passage. Southwest flow aloft will send several embedded shortwaves and associated vorticity maxima across the CWA Monday afternoon. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 50-75%, increasing from west to east. The western CWA will likely receive just rain, while the eastern CWA has enough instability to support a weak thunderstorm or two.

Blowing dust will be something to keep an eye out for Monday. Lapse rates are not supportive of dust being lofted, and the recent stretch of dense fog will help keep the ground saturated. Precipitation will also help limit the potential for blowing dust, although PoPs for eastern Colorado are only around 50%. Areas that miss out on Monday's precipitation will be a concern for blowing dust if they can dry out enough.

Tuesday is forecast to be another windy day as another jet streak scrapes the CWA. While not as strong, wind gusts up to 50 mph are still possible for the western CWA. This will really depend on what the upper-level flow does Monday and where the jet sets up. Models diverge on the pattern aloft after Monday, so the jet streak could shift south of our area, diminishing the wind threat. Blowing dust is also on the table, but how Monday pans out will determine the threat.

Temperatures for the long term period are fairly consistent. Monday's highs are forecast in the 50s to 60s with potential for the far eastern CWA to see some 70s. Tuesday through Friday, expect high temperatures in the 50s with lows in the 30s to 40s. Our eastern Colorado counties could see lows around freezing through Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1058 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Conditions are expected to improve across the areas this afternoon. KGLD and KMCK are forecast to return to MVFR, if not fully VFR, for a couple hours this afternoon. During this time, we also expect southeasterly winds to pick up a bit, potentially leading to gusts in the 20-25 kts range. Once the sun sets, winds will weaken and MVFR to IFR conditions will return. As it stands, conditions look to remain notably better overnight tonight than the past two nights, but that is subject to change. We could also see some showers over the region tomorrow morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081.