textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy SSE to S winds may gust to ~45 mph today, mainly late this morning.

- Rain chances increase this evening and overnight. Greatest shower/storm coverage and rainfall amounts expected early Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) includes a Marginal and Slight Risk (levels 1/4 and 2/4) of isolated to scattered nuisance flooding and localized to isolated flash flooding on Wednesday and a Marginal Risk on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A modest cut-off low ~150 miles offshore (west) of Baja, CA at 08Z this morning will slowly meander N-NNE toward the Desert Southwest, along the far western periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Gulf, Southern Plains and Southern MS River Valley. Meanwhile, a weak trough/shear axis extending northeastward from the 4-Corners into the northern Rockies will progress slowly east toward the Northern and Central Plains during the short term period.

An atypically moist airmass will persist over the region throughout the short term period. Recent runs of the HRRR, RAP, NAM NEST and GFS appear to be in relatively good agreement with regard to the time-frame in which showers/storms will be most numerous in coverage.. between sunrise and sunset Thursday (give or take a few hours on either side). Given that precipitation will be convective in nature and that simulated reflectivity forecasts have been, and continue to, vary considerably from model-to-model and run-to-run, low confidence persists with regard to rainfall amounts and distribution. Regardless, most or all of the Tri-State Area is expected to see measurable rain. Locally heavy rainfall amounts (1-2") and localized flash flooding are possible in locations affected by multiple rounds of showers/storms.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 205 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Synoptically, the ridge remains to the south over the Southern US / Gulf region. Guidance is in fairly good agreement regarding a shortwave moving through the region Friday through Saturday. However, some uncertainty remains as to how far south into the Tri-State area it will extend. Sunday through Monday, flow will be predominately zonal. Any shortwaves passing through the area will help increase precipitation chances.

High temperatures for the week look to remain in the mid to upper 80s for the majority of the Tri-State area, though both Friday and Tuesday will be a tad bit "cooler" with highs in the 70s. Friday holds the best precipitation chances for the long term period, with the Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) in the 20-60% range. The highest amounts are expected to be the eastern portions of the Tri- State area, as the upper level shortwave moves through. For the remainder of the period. PoPs stay around 15-30% as various afternoon showers move through. Friday is currently forecast to be the windiest day of the long term period, with sustained winds around 10-20 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Areas most likely to experience these winds will be east of the CO/KS border and south of I-70, primarily during the morning hours on Friday.

Tuesday into Wednesday next week look to be the most notable day of the long term period, though it is about seven days out and a fair amount can change. Currently, the Canadian-NH, ECMWF, and GFS models all show around a 571 dam upper-level trough moving through the Tri- State area, accompanied by a jet streak. The main uncertainty lies in how far south the trough tracks. It could pass as for south as the CO/KS/OK border or as far north as the CO/NE border. Additionally, all three deterministic models indicate some form of a surface low on Tuesday, but with little agreement regarding its location. With all of that being said, this could be our next precipitation system and will definitely be on our radar to keep and eye on.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

GLD: VFR conditions are likely to prevail through early afternoon. Expect an increasing potential for MVFR ceilings during the afternoon and early evening. Low confidence with regard to MVFR ceiling development/duration this afternoon. Guidance suggests that IFR ceilings will develop this evening (after sunset) and persist through the remainder of the TAF period, with an increasing potential for showers/storms late this evening and overnight. SSE winds at 15-20 knots will veer to the S and increase to 20-25 knots with gusts to 30-35 knots within a few hours after sunrise. Breezy S winds will persist through much of the day, gradually decreasing to 15-20 knots by sunset.

MCK: MVFR ceilings are expected early this morning. Low confidence with regard to MVFR ceiling duration; ceilings could be intermittent in nature during the day. Expect an increasing potential for MVFR ceilings during the late afternoon and early evening. Guidance suggests that IFR ceilings will quickly develop this evening (around or shortly after sunset) and persist through the remainder of the TAF period, with an increasing potential for showers/storms late tonight (Thu morning), near the end of the TAF period. SE winds at 10-15 knots will veer to the S and increase to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots within a few hours after sunrise. Breezy S winds will persist through much of the day, gradually decreasing to 10-15 knots late this afternoon and evening, by sunset.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.