textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average highs expected into early next week. Near record highs possible.

- A series of weak shortwaves move through the region next week and may bring precipitation. Low confidence on timing and accumulations at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1124 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Today, a 500 mb trough is exiting the region to the east and fairly zonal flow is expected to move in tonight and largely remain until Tuesday morning. A pretty similar setup is expected down at 850 mb.

The exiting trough today will keep winds northwesterly as temperatures warm into the upper 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow, during the morning hours, a high over eastern Texas will funnel warm, southwesterly air into the CWA. In the midday and afternoon, a low coming out of the northern Rockies will drape a loose gradient cold front across the CWA. This will help pull in more warm air ahead of the front and lead to some light pre-frontal warming under mostly clear skies. Depending on the timing of the front and how much prefrontal warming occurs, temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s. The cooler solution has the front moving in around 15Z and limits temperatures to the around 70-75. The warmer solution has the front entering around 18-20Z, allowing temperatures to warm to the 75-83 degree range. This could set some record highs, which are shown in the climate section below.

These warm temperatures and dry air will cause RH values to drop into the mid teens across the area, potentially leading to some critical fire weather concerns today. Tomorrow the wind is less impressive, but we will have a front passing through. More information can be found in the fire weather section below.

Tonight is a mild night, with temperatures cooling into the upper 20s to mid 30s under mostly clear skies. Tomorrow night, the gradient behind the cold front tightens up and northerly winds are forecast to gust up around 20 kts. This will usher in some cooler air, but the stronger winds will keep the surface well mixed and temperatures will only cool into the mid 20s to low 30s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the cooler temperatures will certainly be felt. Highs and lows are forecast to be around 50 and upper 20s, respectively. These cooler temperatures will eliminate any critical fire weather potential as RH values will remain above 30%. There is a ~5% chance of some light precipitation Tuesday night, but no accumulation is expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 153 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Wednesday we remain in a weak ridging pattern with a digging trough developing of the coast of Baja California. High temperatures are forecast in the 50s with lows in the upper 20s/low 30s. Thursday remains warm as the ridge moves overhead of our county warning area with highs forecast in the high 50s/low 60s and lows in the upper 20s/low 30s.

We see chances for a pattern change begin Thursday evening as the trough off the coast of Baja California begins to propogate towards our area. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 10-40% overnight Thursday into Friday and range from 30-50% Friday through Saturday evening. They quickly taper off Saturday evening. Rain is the expected precipitation type due to overall warmer temperatures and a consistent 0 degree Celsius line around 700 mb in cross sectional analysis. There is 60-70% chance that rain is the dominant precipitation type. Three of the GEFS ensemble members are showing 2+ inches of snow, but low confidence in this scenario occurring.

Models are in significant disagreement on how this trough will traverse through the CONUS. ECMWF has the trough digging further south and bringing more moisture to our region and higher QPF values. The GFS is less aggressive overall showing a more shallow trough and less overall moisture available with this system. Some GEFS ensemble members are showing no precipitation for our area.

Instability is another factor for uncertainty with this system. Model to model runs have shown an uptick in CAPE for our region, but the location of where this occurs changes with each run. Moisture availability is likely to limit CAPE, but if the system can tap into any CAPE, increased precipitation amounts should be expected.

By Sunday, our county warning area (CWA) returns to mostly clear skies with high temperatures in the high 50s/low 60s forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 952 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Excellent flying weather is expected over the next 24 hours as VFR conditions persist. Northwesterly winds today may briefly gust up to 20 kts at KGLD, but both sites will generally remain in the 10-15 kts range. Around sunset, winds will weaken and be coming from the southwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1124 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Eastern Colorado may even see RH values drop as low as 13% this afternoon. Winds are still expected to be too sporadic to warrant a Red Flag Warning, but brief, locally critical fire weather conditions have a 70% chance of occurring. Confidence has increased due to HREF and REFS probabilities of 25+ MPH surface wind gusts climbing to over 80% across eastern Colorado. Tonight, RH values look to generally remain under 60%, limiting any overnight recovery.

Tomorrow, temperatures are expected to climb even higher, driving RH values across the entire CWA into the low to mid teens. Winds are expected to be weaker tomorrow as a weak cold front moves across the area. With winds being so slow, critical fire weather conditions are not expected. However, with the wind shift, any fires that do occur may be more unpredictable that normal.

CLIMATE

Issued at 153 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

High temperatures today and tomorrow are getting fairly close to setting, or tying, records. Here's a look at how close we're getting.

Sunday 8 Feb 2026

City Old Record (Year) Forecast High Goodland, KS 76 (1943) 69 Hill City, KS 77 (1987) 72 Burlington, CO 74 (1907) 68 McCook, NE 75 (1954) 70

Monday 9 Feb 2026

City Old Record (Year) Forecast High Goodland, KS 78 (1976) 75 Hill City, KS 81 (1996) 78 Burlington, CO 75 (1976) 74 McCook, NE 76 (1954) 75

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.