textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to record highs today with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Localized fire weather conditions are possible today as well due to the warm temperatures.

- Showers and perhaps an isolated dry thunderstorm during the afternoon with a transition to a rain/snow mix Tuesday night is forecast. Little to no accumulation is currently forecast. - Brief mid week cool down before warm temperatures and fire weather concerns return Thursday and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Subtle northwesterly flow remains in place across the region. Overnight southwest wind are forecasts to slowly shift to the west. Due to this am leaning towards most if not all of the area remaining above freezing due to the downslope flow; however winds speeds are forecast to remain around 7-10 knots at this time but if any period of lighter winds can occur then temperatures would quickly plummet due to the radiational cooling as clear skies are forecast to be in place through the night.

Monday, a broad surface low is forecast to develop from roughly the Black Hills down through southeast Colorado. Southwesterly winds are forecast to continue as well with sustained winds of 10-15 mph. Similar to the past few days some localized gusts up to 25 mph are forecast to occur during the late afternoon hours as a 700mb jet develops. Briefly critical fire weather conditions are again forecast for most of the area as humidity due to the warm temperatures are forecast to fall into the low teens. Confidence in at least 1 hour of critical conditions across the area is around 80-90% but confidence in 3+ hours is only 20-30%. Due to the marginal nature of the winds and low confidence we can get the 3 or more hours for Red Flag criteria am opting to hold off on any fire weather issuances at this time. As mentioned above temperatures are forecast to be warm across all of the area with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s currently forecast. A few record highs may be in jeopardy.

Monday night into Tuesday a cold front is forecast to move into the area from the north. The NAM is hinting at some stratus/fog/drizzle potential along the front. With temperatures forecast to be above freezing no impacts are currently anticipated with the front. Mid to late morning Tuesday a mid level vorticity maxima is forecast to lift through the area leading to some elevated showers or isolated thunderstorms as most guidance suggests a few hundred j/kg of MUCAPE should be present as some weak moisture advection occurs. The tricky part to this forecast is if the cold front comes crashing through which the ECMWF-AI continues to suggest which could shunt any of this activity off to the south and east. Another low pressure system is forecast to develop across north central Colorado which looks to lead to essentially a warm front across western portions of the forecast area which will lead to a tricky high temperature forecast with a large gradient from west to east. If the NAM is on to something with the cloud cover and drizzle then temperatures across the board may be to warm by around 10 degrees. Locally critical fire weather conditions may be possible as well Tuesday across eastern Colorado but will be highly dependent on how far east the warm front can get. Tuesday night, another surge of cold air advection is forecast to occur as a shortwave across the northern Plains shunts the cooler airmass into the region. Additional showers and storms during the evening are forecast to form along some 700mb frontogenesis bands and additional forcing from the low pressure system across north central Colorado. 00Z HRRR forecast soundings support the potential for some dry microbursts with this activity currently forecast across Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, Greeley, Sherman and Kit Carson counties as the 0-3km lapse rate is greater than the dry adiabatic lapse rates and very weak EBWD (Effective Bulk Wind Difference) is around 10 knots. Assuming this does occur then can't rule out some blowing dust with any microbursts along with dry lighting potential as well. Confidence in any of these hazards is currently less than 10% but is something that needs to be monitored. As the cold air advection continues a rain/snow or a changeover to snow is forecast to occur especially for northern and western portions of the area after 06Z Wednesday. Currently not anticipating much in the way of hazards but some slick roads due to overnight refreeze potential can not be ruled out as overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the low 20s to low 30s across the area. With the surge of cold air advection Tuesday night winds are forecast to become breezy to gusty with wind gusts of 35-45 mph currently anticipated as mixing heights remain around 1100 feet AGL.

Wednesday, is currently forecast to be a cooler day across the area in wake of the cold front from Tuesday. A much drier air mass is forecast to advect into the area as dewpoints in the low to mid teens move into the forecast area. High temperatures for the day have trended cooler with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to continue as well especially into the early afternoon hours as pressure rises from the cold front stabilizes and winds relax during the afternoon hours. How strong winds get is the difficult portion of the forecast as a strong 700mb jet of 40-50 knots remains aloft but not overly confidence in mixing heights being deep enough to mix those winds to the surface. Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast, but if the deeper mixing can occur which could also mix down some lower dew points then some critical conditions could not occur. Confidence has fallen some in multiple hours of critical fire weather conditions as winds are forecast to weaken as the afternoon goes on along with the cooler trend being seen as well with guidance.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 102 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

The end of the week continues to be forecast to be dominated by northwest flow aloft with an embedded trough or two. For Thursday- Saturday, this is forecast to keep dry and warm air over the area and allow afternoon relative humidity to drop into the low to mid teens. With this, there is concerns for critical fire weather conditions, though which day remains a little uncertain. Ensembles show a sizable range of when waves move through and bring a system that could increase wind gusts above 25 mph. The current favored days are Thursday and Saturday, but as alluded to this could change depending on how these waves push through. Either way, it will probably not be a good time to burn. The continued dry and warm conditions could also lead to some blowing dust concerns if winds got high enough, though the overall chance of this looks to be 20% or less. Highs are forecast to generally reach the 70s with lows in the 30s. No precipitation is currently forecast.

For the weekend trough, guidance is suggesting that this one may be a bit more vertically orientated. As such, temperatures are forecast to either be much cooler or much warmer depending on how far west the trough digs. Not much to report now given the aforementioned uncertainty, but there will likely be some change from the highs in the 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

West-southwest winds are forecast to continue through the night. LLWS is forecast to develop as a northwest to southeast oriented jet develops; this is forecast to last through around 15Z when diurnal mixing begins. Breezy sustained winds are forecast to develop first at MCK around 15Z with winds around 15 knots, some gusts up to 22 knots is possible as well. Winds are forecast to be a little delayed for GLD but sustained winds between 15 and 20 knots is forecast. Again some sporadic higher gusts around 25 knots may occur from 21-00Z but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast for today for most if not all of the area. Very low humidity values in the low teens to even upper single digits are forecast as well. The limiting factor to any fire weather concerns is the wind. Sustained winds around 15-20 mph are forecast although we could see an hour or two where wind gusts around 25 mph occur during the mid to late afternoon, similar to what occurred on Sunday. Some guidance is hinting at a stronger 850mb jet developing across Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, Sherman, Kit Carson and perhaps into western Thomas county which may be the favorite area for critical conditions with confidence around 80-90% that at least one will occur but confidence in 3 or more hours needed for the issuance of a Red Flag Warning is only around 20-30%. Another potential area that could an hour or two of critical conditions is up across northern portions of Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties where they are forecast to be in closer proximity to a bit of a stronger jet. The reason for not issuing a Red Flag Warning is due to the limited spatial coverage that these winds are forecast to see.

Tuesday, locally critical fire weather conditions are again forecast mainly across Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Greeley and Wallace counties. This will be dependent on how far east a warm front can survive as the rest of the area will be in wake of a wind shift during the morning before winds become more easterly. Even if the warm front can make it through the counties above winds are again the biggest question mark as gusts may only get to 25 mph. There is however an increasing signal for high based showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon hours with perhaps a dry lightning potential along with gusty and erratic winds with any downburst. PWATS are forecast to be under 0.5 inches with an inverted v sounding. Any location that a storm could effect should remain under a tenth of an inch of rain. Overall potential for a wetting rain is around 20%.

Wednesday, is a tricky day when it comes to fire weather concerns. Cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s are currently forecast along with a very dry air mass with dew points in the low to mid teens advecting into the area. There is signal that temperatures could be warmer however in some guidance but am not buying it as I feel that cold air advection will still be ongoing for most if not all of the day in wake of a Tuesday night cold front. If temperatures were to warm into the mid 50s then critical fire weather conditions could occur across the area. Guidance has actually been trending a little cooler with the high temperatures for Wednesday so concern for critical conditions has gone down some. Will continue to monitor if the temperature trend does begin to rise again.

Irregardless with very dry 10 hour fuels around 10-12% according to the Kansas Mesonet the concern remains for fire starts and the potential for any fires to get out of control remains high.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy today March the 9th.

Goodland: Record high 83 in 1989.... current forecast 81.

McCook: Record high 85 in 1936.... current forecast 83.

Hill City: Record high 84 in 1989... current forecast 83.

Burlington: Record high 82 in 1989.... current forecast 79.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.