textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog the next few mornings, some dense, with Colorado the most likely location for more extensive coverage.

- Windy on Tuesday with south winds gusting 30-50 mph.

- Gradual warming trend through mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

Upper low will move out today with an upper ridge gradually building over the area from the west. Areas of fog, mainly in Colorado, will burn off by later this morning, but low clouds will persist south of the Interstate while areas to the north will see some afternoon sun. The low clouds will creep back north tonight, with fog developing once again overnight and into Monday morning. Favored area for fog will once again be Colorado, with more patchy coverage elsewhere. Upper ridge axis will be over the area on Monday. This will result in modest warming and more afternoon sun. South winds will also gradually increase through the day as the pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and developing low pressure in Colorado begins to tighten. This trend conditions into Tuesday, with breezy to windy south winds gusting 30-50 mph by the afternoon. Some patchy morning fog will be possible as well. No precipitation is expected through the period.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, near normal on Monday with highs in the low to mid 50s, and slightly above normal on Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 302 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

A little more uncertainty exists than usual four days out for a typical long-term forecast period. Recent GFS and European runs just continue to struggle on agreement regarding to the specifics of Wednesday's system. Guidance does still agree on a weak longwave troughing across the Northern Plains post- deamplification over the Western CONUS. Also, a jet streak aloft containing southwesterly upper-level flow is still anticipated to dominate our area. Where these models diverge is actually the position of said trough relative to the county warning area (CWA). The GFS and associated ensemble has the trough digging a bit more southward than the Euro and Canadian runs. This will become relevant as it may mean the surface low tracks further south than expected, boosting precipitation chances for Wednesday. Anyways, the low is still anticipated to track off to the northeast and bring a cold front through the region. Despite this recent development, guidance has actually held steady with probability of precipitation (PoPs) remaining around 5-15%. Dry air entrainment, via surface winds from the southwest, should limit development of precipitation; Therefore, confidence is low (20%) on any rainfall occurring.

Looking ahead to Thursday, a ridge is now likely to influence our coverage area briefly then move off to the northeast. Southwest flow should continue aloft and high pressure/subsidence should allow surface temperatures to recover from Wednesday's cold front. Late next week, things start to get interesting again as another trough slides through the Rockies and across our CWA. This negatively tilted Rossby wave should bring with it another jet streak as well as another surface low-pressure system/cold front combo. Interestingly enough, the low is likely to take a similar path to Wednesday's system, propagating off to the northeast with the cold front moving eastward across Kansas and into the lower- Missouri Valley. Said low is actually forecasted to form over Northern Colorado which would influence our area better than Wednesday's system. Thus, guidance follows suit with rainfall chances a bit higher on Friday. PoPs in the 30-50% presents with the main precip clearing out by afternoon Saturday. Light to moderate rain showers are all that should come from this system with QPFs forecasted in the 0.01 to 0.05 range. That being said, up to 300 j/kg of SB CAPE is possible so convection (a few thunderstorms) cannot be ruled out and this would boost accumulations a bit for some localized areas.

Temperatures mid-late next week should be quite pleasant for this time of the year. Average to above average highs are forecasted through Saturday with Friday being the warmest of the four days in this long-term period. Highs in the 60s across the entire CWA is to be expected Wednesday. Thursday should see a slight cooldown after the first cold front moves through but 50s/low 60s are still likely. Friday should bounce back nicely with more consistent 60s and a few areas may even reach the low 70s. After the second cold front moves through late Friday, highs are anticipated to fall back into the 50s.

Breezy conditions should continue through the middle of next week via the first upper-level jet. Surface winds 10-25 mph gusting up to 40 mph are likely. Winds decrease slight Thursday then pick back up on Friday with the second jet. Finally, Saturday's winds should also die down a little to 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph (35 mph in localized areas of eastern Colorado). Fire weather is likely to remain a non-concern through next weekend. Wednesday will likely be the driest day with relative humidities dropping as low as 25-30% but areas where it'll be the driest shouldn't have strong/gusty winds occurring at the same time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

..Challenging Aviation Forecast..

Goodland: Ongoing LIFR ceilings are expected to gradually improve to IFR this afternoon, with further improvement to MVFR possible late this afternoon, though.. improvement is likely to be short-lived. Conditions are expected to deteriorate after sunset, with IFR to LIFR ceilings prevailing this evening into Mon morning. Substantial improvement may not occur until the end of the TAF period (~15-18Z Mon). South winds at 10-15 knots will persist through tonight, increasing to 15-20 knots during the late morning and early afternoon (~15-18Z Mon).

McCook: While MVFR ceilings may improve to VFR (3000-4000 ft AGL) this afternoon, improvement is likely to be short-lived, with IFR ceilings returning this evening and persisting through mid-late Monday morning. Substantial improvement may not occur until the end of the TAF period (~15-18Z Mon). South winds at 7-12 knots will persist through tonight, increasing to 12-16 knots during the late morning and early afternoon (~15-18Z Mon).

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.