textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A low chance for a late afternoon/evening severe storm will persist over the weekend. Wind gusts up to 65 mph and quarter size hail are the main threats.

- Warming trend heading into the weekend, with highs in the upper 90's to lower 100's on Sat-Sun.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

No significant change(s) from prior forecast reasoning and expectations. Expect well above normal temperatures through Sunday, hottest this afternoon when air temperatures and heat indices are forecast to reach 100-105F east of Hwy 83. Near advisory heat in the east has been addressed via weather story graphic. Temperatures on Sun will be similar to today, albeit a few degrees cooler in eastern CO and west of Hwy 83 in KS-NE.

Severe Weather Potential [Today]: Scattered storms forecast to develop along the Cheyenne Ridge and portions of the Colorado Front Range late this afternoon may track eastward into portions of northwest KS and southwest NE this evening into tonight. Weak deep layer shear and weak low to mid-level flow beneath the upper level ridge over the Central Plains and a typical late summer environment characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates, strong DCAPE and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles suggest that (1) brief, localized wind gusts up to ~65 mph are the primary hazard and (2) that localized severe downbursts could occur with essentially any high-based convection.

Severe Weather Potential [Sunday]: Modest SW flow aloft will overspread the Rockies as the upper level ridge over the Central Plains shifts east toward the MS River Valley. Further east, on the High Plains, deep layer shear will remain on the low end of the spectrum. Weak low and mid-level flow will persist, with little change in the thermodynamic environment. Expect a severe weather potential similar to today and Friday, perhaps with a somewhat greater potential for marginally severe hail in eastern CO. Thunderstorms are likely to initiate/develop along the higher terrain (similar to previous days) and track downstream into the Goodland CWA. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be fairly consistent with unseasonably hot temperatures and evening storm chances due to our region being in a persistent southwest upper-level flow. Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures are forecast in the 80s to upper 90s. Wednesday through Friday, highs are currently forecast in the high 90s with LREF ensemble members showing at least a 20% chance of high exceeding 100 degrees F for our Kansas and Nebraska counties.

Our persistent southwest upper-level flow will send several embedded shortwaves, bringing precipitation chances each evening Monday through Friday. Monday is looking to be out best chance for precipitation with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) from 30-60%, increasing from east to west. Models are showing a marginally unstable environment with less than 1000 J/Kg of CAPE, around 30 knots of shear and mid-low level lapse rates less than 7 C/km. Model soundings are showing precipitable water (PWAT) values greater than 1 inch and overall skinny CAPE profiles, so heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible with severe or sub- severe storms. Small hail and strong winds could be a concern with stronger storms if they are able to form. Tuesday onward, evening PoPs are around 20% for the area with low confidence in severe weather occurring.

Despite unseasonably hot temperatures, fire weather concerns are minimal through the long term period. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast above 20% for the CWA. Winds will remain overall light with gusts maxing out around 20 mph.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. SSE to SW winds at 8-13 knots will become light and variable by late morning to early afternoon as a surface trough in CO shifts eastward over the Tri-State Area. Light and variable winds are expected to persist through the remainder of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.