textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm chances continue through the weekend. Severe weather is possible each day, with Saturday having the highest chance. Damaging wind gusts, flooding, and large hail are the main concerns.

- More seasonable temperatures through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 108 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Current observations show showers and storms across the eastern portion of the area, with additional storms trying to form along the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado. The showers and storms over the east are driven by a lingering MCV and may keep precipitation over the area through the remainder of the night. The severe potential has waned with most of the area saturated and the forcing mechanisms now mainly east of the area. With the lingering cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures are unlikely to cool below 60, and may even warm back into the 70s.

Today, there is not much of a difference in the pattern with the upper ridge still to the east and the upper trough to the west, keeping us in southwest flow aloft. With the pattern similar and intermittent cloud cover, temperatures are forecast to be fairly similar to yesterday with highs in the 80s closer to the Tri-State border, and 90s further to the southeast. That being said, the surface low pulling a bit further east should inhibit southeastern parts of the area from reaching the upper 90s. Winds should be fairly light from the east again around 5-10 mph.

This evening, we have a chance for a repeat with the surface low trying to deepen a bit near the area and another shortwave moving through the upper northwest flow. This should again lead to two batches of storms, one from the higher terrain to the west and one from the south along the surface low convergence and outflows from storms much further south. The western batch has the higher confidence in occurring again, likely moving into Eastern Colorado around 6pm MT. The southern batch would likely be later around 8pm MT / 9pm CT if it makes it. The southern batch may be inhibited if storms form ahead of the main batch and interfere with the outflow pushing north into the area. The southern batch may also struggle to pull into the area if the low center is further east and does not deepen as much over the area. Otherwise, this should result in a repeat of yesterday with the two batches of storms combining over the area and pushing through to the northeast. Severe weather would be possible, mainly in the form of wind gusts up to 65 mph. Any storm could produce the strong wind gusts, but organized lines/clusters would be more likely. Large hail will be possible, but the later start and high chance of storms being clustered by the time they reach the area will keep our hail chances pretty small. The other main threat would be flooding. Currently, guidance favors the main cluster combo moving just a little west of where it moved today. If it moves over the same area as yesterday, roughly inbetween Highway 25 and Highway 83, the chances for flooding will increase as adding 2-3" in these areas that already saw 1-2.5" of rain yesterday would likely cause at least nuisance flooding. The main threats and storms would likely leave the area shortly after midnight central time. Similar to early this morning, lingering outflows or an MCV could allow showers and storms to persist through the night, likely sub-severe.

Saturday, there is minimal change forecast short of the upper ridge trying to move back further to the west and into the area. For now, the difference is minimal with temperatures maxing out again in the 80s and 90s and light winds a bit more from the north.

This will be shocking, but storms are possible during the late afternoon and evening, in two batches. The western batch, driven by another wave in the upper southwest flow, will be the more likely batch that forms west of the area and pushes in. The main difference is that the effective shear may be higher, which would increase the initial hail threat. If the 0-6km shear does reach 35+ kts and an isolated storm forms, it wouldn't be unreasonable for hail up to two inches in diameter. Otherwise, storms would likely cluster again and inhibit the hail threat as the cluster pushes east. A secondary batch either forming over the area or pushing in from the south is possible depending on how the low sets up. Ensemble guidance is fairly split on where the low center sets up in the Plains on Saturday, leading to a range of solutions from no additional storms, to a strong cluster that then merges with the western cluster. The wind threat is forecast to again be the main star, with wind gusts potentially reaching 75 mph. Flooding will also be a big concern again, especially if Friday pans out and we get another 1-3" of rain in the area. Timing is currently forecast to have storms push in from the west around 4-6pm MT and exit the area shortly after midnight central time. Keep an eye out for changes though as we see if/how the batch tied to the surface low modifies things.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 302 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Sunday morning, ridging is favored at 500-mb just to the west of the forecast area, with its axis running from the Pacific Northwest through the South-Central Plains. This feature would be supporting a surface high pressure across the Northern Plains. At the same time, a broad surface low is forecast to be positioned across the Four- Corners Region and portions of West Texas. The surface high to the north and surface low across the Desert Southwest would support southerly winds meeting northeasterly to easterly winds in Kansas Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible under this weather pattern. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests a 25% chance or better for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across most of the forecast area, with the best chances across East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas (60-80%). Thunderstorms are not yet expected to be severe, as LREF guidance shows less than a 30% chance across the entire area that sfc-500mb wind shear will exceed 30 kts. However, GFS and EC model soundings show wind shear at or nearing 30 kts. If this is the case, some thunderstorms may be allowed to become marginally severe. Confidence in severe weather occurring Sunday is around 5%, though would increase if wind shear can continue to improve. Regarding temperatures, highs are forecast a bit cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s, as northeasterly to easterly winds would tend to dominate over the southerly winds from the south.

A strengthening upper level low in Central Canada looks to enhance a 500-mb jet streak across the Northern Plains Monday. This would allow the surface high pressure to migrate into the Midwest, and support southerly winds across the forecast area, helping the broad low to the south. Forecast highs are still in the low to mid 80s, as the southerly winds look to be relatively weak, and some cloud cover may still be in place from Sunday's thunderstorms. Showers remain possible Monday, but are less likely than Sunday as convergence reduces across the region. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance is in support of this solution, with most areas at less than a 30% chance to receive greater than 0.1 inches of rain (the exception being West- Central Kansas in the 30-40% range). Confidence in severe weather occurring is less than 5%, as LREF guidance continues to show less than a 20% chance for greater than 30 kts of wind shear across nearly the entire forecast area.

Deterministic GFS and EC model guidance begins to diverge by Tuesday, specifically regarding a trough off the United States West Coast moving inland. Looking at GEFS, EC, and LREF ensembles, the ridge from the Pacific Northwest to the South-Central Plains is forecast to remain in place, but flatten out a bit, as the trough off the West Coast remains off shore through the end of the period. However, these ensembles show high amounts of spread in 500-mb heights under and to the east of the trough to the west, which would suggest the trough is still capable of moving inland between Tuesday and the end of the forecast period. About 50-60% of LREF members are in support of the ridge remaining in place and the trough remaining off the west coast. If ridging is allowed to remain in place and just to the west of the forecast area, similar conditions to Sunday and Monday may remain, with cooler temperatures favored. However, if the trough is allowed to move inland, temperatures may reach back into the 90s, and possibly even the lower 100s along the US-283 Corridor. Additionally, relative humidities would have an opportunity to drop into the 20s based on LREF 25th percentiles.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1115 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Rain and mist are forecast to start the period, with visibility generally between 4 and 9 statue miles. The rain should end roughly by 09Z for both sites, but low ceilings around 800-1000ft may move in shortly after that. If the low ceilings move in, they would likely persist though 13-15Z. Once any low ceilings break, VFR conditions should persist through the remainder of the period with winds generally below 10 kts. There is another chance for showers and storms after 03Z Saturday. KGLD would likely see any precipitation first, followed by KMCK closer to 06Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.