textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend through the weekend and into the start of the work week.

- There is a low chance for a severe storm or two Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats.

- Sustained winds of at least 30 to 40 mph are forecast across eastern Colorado Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 218 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Clear skies have been observed through the early overnight hours. With the clear skies, temperatures have cooled into the 50s. This should hold through the night with winds forecast to remain from the south/southeast around 10 mph.

Sunday, an upper trough is forecast to begin pushing into the Western United States. As it does so, the low pressure near the surface is forecast to expand east. As it does so, a dryline is forecast to push into the area from the west and lower relative humidity into the teens and low 20s behind it. Critical fire weather conditions are not likely as the expanding low is forecast to lower the winds to around 10-15 mph as the low expands over the area. Temperatures are forecast to be warmer in the 80s and maybe even some lower 90s with drier air and southerly flow allowing for warm air advection.

During the afternoon and evening hours, storms are forecast to fire up along the dryline. The dryline will likely fire up storms along and east of a line from Tribune, KS to Trenton, NE. Most guidance suggests that MUCAPE will be around 500-1500 J/kg due to the increasing dry air. These factors along with mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9.0 C/km are forecast to be what fires up the storms around 2-4pm. The issue for the storms is that effective shear is forecast to be around 30kts and dry air in the low to mid-levels would hinder how long storms could sustain themselves. With this, pulse storms are currently forecast. If a storm could sustain by finding a pocket of better instability and shear, it wouldn't be unreasonable for it to produce hail to around quarter to half dollar in size. Wind gusts look to be a little less likely compared to yesterday with both winds in the air column and downshear vectors around 20-35 kts. Still couldn't rule out a rogue 60 mph with a strong downdraft. These storms should end during the early evening hours and give way to a mix of clouds and clear skies from higher level moisture streaming over the Front Range. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 50s again.

For Memorial Day, the upper trough is forecast to stall over the Western United States while slight ridging develops over the area. This should help the area heat up a bit more with temperatures forecast to reach the lower 90s. Meanwhile, the low pressure near the Front Range is forecast to deepen a bit. With this, winds are forecast to strengthen during the day from the south with speeds nearing 15-20 mph. There is the possibility for showers and storms with the low sitting just west of the area creating some convergence zones over/near the area. However, current guidance suggests that there will be a bit too much dry air at the surface for anything organized or severe to develop. This could change if the southerly flow becomes more southeasterly and brings more moisture into the area. The best chances look to be in Eastern Colorado during the late afternoon and evening hours at this time. The evening hours are forecast to have winds lower a tad to around 10-15 mph with storm activity ending a few hours before midnight. Lows are forecast to drop into the 50s again.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 151 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Looking at the upper air pattern, there is a ridge that is set up over the area and will bring warmer temperatures and increased moisture. Starting with Tuesday, the high temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s, along with lows in the 50s. As for storm potential there is about 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE that could support thunderstorm development. The NBM guidance does show there being about a 20-40% chance of seeing more than 0.01".

Sustained winds do show a sign of concern for Tuesday, with having high winds for the the Colorado counties. The sustained winds look to remain out of the south and may reach up to 45 mph. Interestingly enough there is support from the EFI, showing the abnormal sustained wind speeds. The peak wind gusts will occur in the late morning to early afternoon. Currently, there is a 5-10% that we exceed 55 mph for wind gusts. Guidance is suggesting that the main driver behind the increase in sustained winds being so strong, is likely due to a 850 mb low level jet. There is so me concerns for blowing dust, however the confidence level is very low (5%). Guidance is showing, lapse rates that are either a tad bit to high for the 2-2.5 C/km or the 0.5-1 C/km are to low. The other thing to look at is soil moisture, especially if precipation does occur this weekend, as of right now the moisture is above 50%.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper pattern has some uncertainty with how this trough evolves and moves through the region. There is some models that suggest the it will deepen and move slower compared to the other side where it will cut off and move though quicker.

For the high temperatures for Wednesday, cool down to mid 70s and low 80s. The lows remain in the 50s. As for winds, they transition to come from the southeast. Wind gusts may reach up to 35 mph. Moving to precipitation and storm chances, there is a 30-50% chance of exceeding 0.1" for 24 hours. As for storm potential, there is CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range which would be sufficient for storm development. Thursday and Friday look to be very similar to Wednesday with highs in the high 70s and low 80s. Along with winds from the southeast. The wind gusts do remain lower than the previous days in the range of 15-25 mph. As for precip/storm chance are pretty much the same as Wednesday with CAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range.

There is a small threat for flooding during this three day period. The main concern is that there could be a convergence zone over Kansas. This will likely bring moisture from the south. Given the present CAPE for each day storms/showers will likely be present. Guidance is also showing that the PWATs for the storm environment around 0.9" with higher values to the east where they could reach 1.3". One other thing to mention is the vertical shear is very low. If this scenario pans out then flooding could be concern.

One final note for this three day period forecast, as mentioned before, there is some uncertainty with the movement of the system. That ultimately will affect the CWA's storm/showers and flooding potential. As we move closer to the event, more information will be available to investigate further.

Saturday's forecast does depend on what happens during the week. Currently, the highs look to be low 80s and lows in 50s. Winds do shift back to coming from the southeast and gusts remain in the 15-25 mph range. There is the standard CAPE range as days prior so there could be showers and or storms present, but this a week out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Low level wind shear is forecast to continue through about 11-14Z with speeds at 200-300ft around 40-45 kts. The other main concern is the chance for storms between 20-01Z. While less than a 25% chance, storms could be capable of hail around an inch and wind gusts near 50 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.