textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms are expected to persist overnight across the area. Low chance a few storms produce 1 inch hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- Patchy fog is possible across the area near sunrise.

- Another chance for storms this evening and Monday afternoon. 1 inch hail and 65 MPH winds are the primary threats.

- Above normal temperatures through at least mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1207 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A 500 mb high over New Mexico paired with a low over the Great Lakes regions keeps the Tri-State area under fairly persistent northwesterly flow. This will let temperatures warm up into the 90s, potentially briefly 100 degrees, over the next few days. More importantly, this give us daily chance at convection.

Early this morning is a prime example as a shortwave trough is providing enough forcing for convection to move through the CWA. We are expecting this convection to largely remain sub-severe, however we cannot fully rule out a micro-burst leading to 70+ MPH winds or an isolated cell producing 1+ inch hail. The potential for these threats to come to fruition is less than 10%. There is a near equal chance for a line of these storms to train over the same area, leading to 1-3 inches of localized rainfall. Most likely, a large portion of the CWA will see a few hundredths up to an inch in some lucky spots.

Behind the rain this morning, easterly winds may provide enough up- slope cooling to produce some patchy fog across the CWA. There's only a ~10% chance visibility drop below a mile in the fog, but isolated patches of dense fog are not impossible. This fog and some lingering stratus will work to stunt morning warming, keeping temperatures in the low 90s.

Around 0Z this afternoon our next round of convection looks to be entering the CWA from the west from yet another shortwave trough. There looks to be a slightly better chance at severe weather with the Sunday evening convection. Scattered to clusters of supercells seems more likely. The more isolated a cell is, the better chance is will have to be severe, but there's a 60% chance storms cluster together early and would likely only muster 50-65 MPH winds and 0.75- 1.25 inch hail. If an isolated cell matures ahead of other convection, we could see 2.5 inch hail, a microburst of 80 MPH, and a brief tornado. Potential for this occurring is less than 5%. There is also a 25% chance of flash flooding from either training storms or right/left moving storms, as these motions are around 15-20 kts. The bulk of the convection looks to remain west of KS 27. All in all, storms are likely, but there is only a small, conditional threat of high-end severe weather.

Convection looks to end around 6-9Z, and then temperatures will drop into the mid 60s, again. Chances are less than 10% for fog formation Monday morning. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 90s as a weak 850 mb low moves over the area, drawing more hot, southerly wind into the CWA. This low will be the source of our convection potential Monday afternoon and evening as it brings in a weak cold front. This convection looks to be fairly similar to Sunday's storms, but potentially starting a couple hours sooner.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances.

High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Friday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period.

Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chance then begins to taper off to 5-15% for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions will largely dominate through the period for KGLD and KMCK, but will be broken up by showers and storms moving through the area and some fog and stratus around sunrise. KGLD has a better chance at seeing storms and stratus. Also around sunrise, southeasterly winds gusting in the 20-30 kts range are possible. This may briefly make the fog worse, but will clear us back out to VFR no later than 18Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.