textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temps today, cooling trend on Sat-Sun.

- 10-15% chance for a severe storm capable of producing localized wind gusts up to 65 mph in eastern CO and nearby KS and NE border counties between 4-10 PM MDT today.

- 20% chance for a few severe storms Saturday aft-eve, mainly in eastern CO and nearby KS-NE border counties between 5-11 PM MDT. 65-75 mph wind gusts are the main threat. Localized flash flooding and an instance of quarter to golf ball size hail also possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 105 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

As of 0530Z, a cold front is moving across the Tri-State border as a warm front pushes past U.S. 83 north of U.S. 36. Both of these fronts are producing some showers with occasional lightning strike. This precipitation is hitting the mean flow as it forms and is moving to the northeast, out of the CWA shortly after it forms. No severe storms are expected this morning.

However, behind the cold front, the northwestern CWA has a 50% chance at seeing some patchy fog early this morning. This fog looks to remain northwest of a line from Max, NE to Flagler, CO. Visibilities may drop to around 1/4 mile in valleys and other low lying areas. Temperatures are forecast to cool into the low 60s in the northwestern CWA to low 70s near Hill City, KS.

Later today, we expect to see the cold front stall out in the eastern CWA, likely over Norton to Leoti. To the southeast of the front, temperatures will likely warm into the upper 90s with southwesterly winds gusting around 20-30 kts. To the northwest of the front, temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, but winds will favor a northerly direction and be fairly light.

Where this boundary sets up, we could (15% chance) see some afternoon and evening convection fire off of it, around 20-23Z. Shear along the boundary appears to be fairly weak with inverted-V sounding, making the most likely threat a microburst. CAPE and effective shear are more primed for strong to severe convection closer to Nebraska, outside of the CWA. The farther southwest we go along the boundary, CAPE and shear become even weaker, making strong convection less likely.

However, the primary threat for severe weather will be coming from a quick moving Colorado lee low, stemming from a shortwave trough at 500 mb from a northwest CONUS low. Contrary to what the SPC Severe Weather Outlook shows, there is a notable risk of severe weather for the majority of the CWA this evening. The low and associated cold front look to start firing off storms west of the CWA around 20-23Z and push into the CWA within a couple hours. CAPE looks to be the limiting factor for convection this evening, largely in the 500- 1,500 J/kg range, but we are expecting 30-45 kts of bulk shear. LCLs are expected to be fairly high before an inversion sets up overnight, leading to a less than 2% chance of a tornado. However, hail may be able to grow up to 1-1.5 inches. Also, 70 MPH winds from a microburst could occur. There is about a 10-15% chance of these hazards occurring along and northwest of a line from Trenton, NE to Cheyenne Wells, CO, and a 5% chance for the rest of the CWA.

Flash flooding also has a 10% chance of occurring within about 60 miles of the Tri-State border. This threat looks to only occur if efficient rain producing storms train over the same location. The strong to severe convective threat would likely persist until around 9Z, but storms and showers may persist will into Saturday morning. Overnight lows would range from the mid 50s to upper 60s, depending on how early the cold front moves through.

Saturday morning, there is a 25-40% chance that the slow moving cold front will still be initiating weak convection across the CWA into the midday. The threat for severe weather before 21Z is less than 5% with flooding being the most likely hazard. As the day progresses, temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 70s along and north of U.S. 36 to upper 80s in the southeastern CWA.

In the afternoon and evening hours, down at 850 mb, a combination of the previous low moving to the east and a high projecting an inverted ridge from southern Canada, will create a backdoor cold front and push cool, saturated air into the CWA. This feature is most easily seen at the 300K level. This looks to start around 0Z and continue through the night. At 500 mb, also starting around 0Z, the northwest CONUS low will be moving over the Northern Rockies and will push out a trough ahead of the low. This will lead to mid and upper level forcing. These two features will lead to overnight convection.

The severe storm threat looks to be focused between 0-9Z, forming in eastern Colorado before barreling eastward and impacting the rest of the CWA. All hazards are possible with the storms Saturday night, including a risk for a tornado. The tornado risk is greater earlier in the event, before an inversion can set up, and with discrete cells or a quick forming QLCS.

As far as wind and hail, if the cells remain discrete, the wind threat tops out around 60 MPH, but hail up to 2 inches is possible with 1,500-3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-60 kts of 0-6 km shear. If the storms cluster in a disorganized manner, storms may struggle to become severe, leaving 50-60 MPH winds and 0.5-1 inch hail being most likely. If a QLCS can form, the hail threat caps out around 1 inch, but 75+ MPH winds would be possible.

There is a 10-25% chance flash flooding becomes a threat with this system, too. Highest potential for flooding is for locations that receive 1+ inch of rain tonight. Efficient rain producing storms trailing the initial onset of convection is possible, mainly along and north of U.S. 24. This threat extends until near sunrise Sunday morning, as lingering shower and storms may not exit the CWA until closer to 12Z. Lows are expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s by Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 232 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Synoptically, forecast confidence has increased for Sunday through around Tuesday night. On Sunday morning, an upper level trough is expected to move eastward from the Western CO/WY border and enter the Tri-State Border Area by the evening hours. An associated weak jet streak should accompany this trough. By Monday evening, the trough exits to the east and our flow will mainly remain from the west-southwest until around Tuesday night.

High temperatures for the late weekend into the work week still look to remain in the 70s for the majority of the period. Expect a brief warmup starting on Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the lower 80s. Winds are once again calm to variable. Sunday still looks to have the greatest chance of seeing precipitation for the forecast. Both the LREF and NBM guidance show at least around a 30-40% chance of exceeding 0.1 inches of precip from the early morning and tapering off in the afternoon. Monday through Wednesday, the Probability of Precipitation is around 20-40% each afternoon for the majority of the CWA. Guidance indicates lower values of CAPE and moderate shear, which would lean more towards showers than severe storms.

Starting Wednesday, the forecast becomes more uncertain. Guidance indicates that an upper level ridge should be set up over the Southern US/Gulf Region, alongside troughing over the Western CONUS Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, Wednesday morning is when the uncertainty begins. The GFS has an upper level ridge farther north over the AR/LA/TX border, amplifying directly over the CWA. Both the ECMWF and the Canadian-NH models have the ridge centered over the TX/Gulf border without amplifying overhead, placing it instead over CO and WY. Both the GFS and Canadian-NH models feature either a weak trough or a shortwave moving through the Tri-State Area. One other feature to keep an eye on is, both the GFS and Canadian-NH model show a surface low developing out of Southeastern CO. With that being said, where the ridge and trough/shortwaves set up will either increase or decrease our precipitation chances for Wednesday and Thursday. It will be interesting to see how guidance handles this upper level pattern uncertainty as we get closer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

GLD: Aside from gusty and erratic winds in vicinity of any showers and storms, light/variable winds will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Scattered showers/storms forecast to develop in CO this afternoon may track ENE across portions of northwest KS during the late afternoon and evening. Locations north of Goodland are more likely (relatively speaking) to be affected by storms. Medium confidence in thunderstorm timing (~23-05Z), low confidence in thunderstorm coverage. Light winds, a moist airmass and a clearing trend could lead to a period of IFR-LIFR fog or stratus a few hours on either side of sunrise. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail during the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: Aside from gusty and erratic winds in vicinity of any showers and storms, light/variable winds will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Scattered showers/storms forecast to develop in CO this afternoon may track ENE across portions of northwest KS and southwest NE late this afternoon and evening. Medium confidence in thunderstorm timing (~01-07Z), low confidence in thunderstorm coverage. Light winds, a moist airmass and a clearing trend could lead to a period of IFR-LIFR fog or stratus a few hours on either side of sunrise. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail during the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.