textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Early morning storms are possible, likely remaining sub- severe.

- Better chance for severe weather this evening, with all hazards possible.

- Severe weather potential continues Wednesday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A 500 mb high over New Mexico paired with a low over the Great Lakes regions keeps the Tri-State area under fairly persistent northwesterly flow. This will give us daily chance at convection. Thankfully, some incoming cold fronts will cool temperatures down a bit! Today, we look to warm into the low 90s with tomorrow topping out in the 80s! Today's temperatures may be even lower if there is morning convection, but we'll get into that in a minute.

Convection has had a near impossible time initiating Monday night due to weaker than expected forcing and slightly drier conditions. There is still a 50% chance we'll see convection overnight across the CWA. We cannot rule out severe weather, but with weak shear and lowering CAPE, the potential is less than 10%. Most likely hazards would be hail up to 1.5 inches and winds likely topping out under 65 MPH, unless a micro-burst occurs, then winds near 75 MPH would be possible. The timeframe for this convective threat peaks between 7- 11Z, but could last until well after sunrise. The later that the convection this morning lasts, the less conducive the environment will be for severe weather this evening.

As it stands, there is a 60% chance the environment will be too weak or disorganized to produce strong to severe storms and a 40% chance strong to severe storms occur. If storms occur, here's what we're expecting. Areas along and east of KS 27 will have the better chance at seeing organized severe storms, increasing the farther east we go in the CWA, as this is where the best 500mb vorticity. However, storms may fire off the Front Range and create a threat for the entire CWA. Most likely start time for the "main show" will be around 0-3Z, but some early convection in the northern CWA may precede this by a few hours.

This paragraph covers the most likely forecast using 18Z and 0Z guidance. It's worth noting this guidance had fairly widespread convection early Tuesday morning modifying the environment. As of 6Z, this has NOT occurred, lowing confidence in this guidance. In the first couple hours of convection (0-3Z), isolated storms are favored before clustering. Isolated storms will have a better chance at producing hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch range, but will be less likely to produce winds above 65 MPH. As the system clusters, which 18 & 0Z CAMs suggest will happen quickly, the hail threat lowers and the wind threat increases. A few clusters or even a QLCS look to form as the system matures, which may produce winds up to 85 MPH, while hail would top out around 1.5 inches. The tornadic threat is very low due to weak low level shear, but if a north/south oriented QLCS forms, the bulk majority of the shear, including 0-3 km, is from the west. This is a preferred shear vector for quick QLCS tornadoes. Convection would likely clear our area around 9Z, unless redevelopment occurs over the far eastern CWA which could linger to around sunrise. Lows should be a bit cooler, cooling into the low 60s.

There is considerable uncertainly about the convective threat later today. It may take until Tuesday 12Z data comes in before we're really able to get a handle on what state the environment is in.

The potential for severe weather Wednesday is still very much up in the air. We're looking at another shortwave trough helping convection initiate off of the Front Range. However, once it detaches from any orographic forcing, convection looks to weaken rapidly. What convection does survive looks to dive to the south-southeast. Winds up to 70 MPH is the main threat, but 2 inch hail is possible from an isolated storm. There is also a <5% chance additional isolated cells fire across the CWA, mainly convective-T driven. However, if any of these cells can tap into the deeper 0-8km shear, all hazards would be possible.

Prime time for convection Wednesday will be between 20-06Z with most convection moving in a south and southeasterly direction. Overnight lows look to mimic Tuesday night temperatures.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 124 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Thursday through at least Saturday, the upper ridge axis is forecast to shift more over the area. This should allow temperatures to be a bit warmer in the mid to upper 90s. The chances for 100s looks to be low at this time as the ridge is forecast to deamplify as it pushes east. This should also lower storms chances a bit with the upper level subsidence in place. Still, it wouldn't be unreasonable for some late in the day storms moving in from the west. We may also have additional development in the area if the ridge deamplifies enough for a trough to begin to develop and push low pressure into the area.

For the end of the weekend and beginning of next week, an upper trough should be pushing in from the northwest. This should bring some slightly cooler temperatures to the area, but probably keep highs in the 80s and 90s with the trough forecast to cross the Northern United States. We should also see some increase in storm chances with the upper level southwest flow likely assisting storms in developing west of the area. So in short, much of the same with highs around 90 and continued storm chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1113 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions look to dominate the period for KGLD and KMCK. However, storms may impact the sites early this morning, and there is a 10% chance patchy fog will impact KMCK around sunrise. The better chance of storms will start late this afternoon into the evening hours. Throughout the period, winds will largely remain light and variable, favoring an east- southeasterly direction ahead of the storms.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.