textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures are possible on Sunday and Monday.

- Low potential for active weather next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 738 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Strong, gustier winds have diminished and relative humidity has increased above critical fire weather values. Therefore the Red Flag Warning has been cancelled.

Am a little concerned that winds across western half of CWA will be a tad stronger than previously thought and may need to consider another fire weather highlight, but want to see next cycle of ensemble data before making a decision.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

It's definitely a bit windy today with the Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) at the Goodland Airport gusting to 59 mph at 9:23 AM MDT. Throughout the late morning to early afternoon, the forecast remains on track to have winds decrease from west to east to gusts of 20-35 mph by 2-3 PM MDT/3-4 PM CDT. Despite the decreasing winds, sunny skies will have the the area remain fairly dry on the humidity side with Relative Humidity values likely staying below 25% for much of the area through the early evening hours. The Red Flag Warning for the area is set to expire at 9 PM MDT/10 PM CDT. An increase in cloud cover starting over East-Central Colorado is expected around sunset with the clouds moving east over the remainder of the Tri-State area as the leading edge of the surface trough moves over the Central Plains. Overnight temperatures will be mild in the 40s across the area.

On Sunday the surface trough will continue to sweep across Kansas and Nebraska with an area of high pressure expanding into the area from the west under the nearly zone flow aloft. Once the overnight clouds clear out, skies are expected to be clear for much of the day, allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s across the area for afternoon highs. It's possible we could see some near-record to record high temperatures, primarily Goodland and Burlington. Relative humidity conditions are expected to be a little lower tomorrow compared to today with values in the low teens to upper single digits. Winds, fortunately, should be on the lighter side with northwest wind gusts to 30 mph possibly during the late morning to early afternoon for our northwest corner of counties while the remainder of the area sees gusts to ~20-25 mph. The strongest winds for the day are expected to occur before we see the humidity fall into critical fire weather range, so we are holding off an any headlines for now. Overnight lows are forecast to be similar to tonight.

Overnight Sunday, another lee surface trough will develop along the Front Range as a series of shortwave disturbances in the upper levels move over the Rockies and the Central High Plains. The warm and dry pattern will continue as we start the work week with temperatures in the 80s to low 90s. This sets us up for another day of near-record to record high temperatures. Relative humidity values are forecast to be similar to Sunday in the low teens; however, winds will be an even bigger limiting factor for much of the area. Locales along and west of the Colorado border could see a few hours of critical fire weather conditions with westerly winds gusting to 30 mph through the early afternoon. Those east of the Colorado border will see winds closer to 20 mph. Big question will be if we can see three or more hours of those critical conditions in our Colorado counties. Overnight a cold front will work it's way south into the area dropping temperatures in to the 30s behind the front. Those ahead of the front could see overnight temperatures in the 40s depending on how quick it pushes through. There is a low chance (30%) of light rain and maybe some snow mixed in overnight Monday generally north of I-70. Little to no accumulation is expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Starting Monday night through the week, we are in a somewhat active pattern with shortwave disturbances bringing chances daily for light rain during the day time hours and maybe some light snow as temperatures cool overnight. Best chances for daily moisture currently looks to be along and north of I-70, though the entire area could see some rain Tuesday-Wednesday night. Temperatures should reach the 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and the 50s on Wednesday for highs with overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s both nights. If we do see precipitation falling during the overnight hours, snow to liquid ratios are favoring more of a wet snow with accumulations generally less than 1" Tuesday night. Wednesday and Thursday could be a bit breezy with southeast (Wednesday) to southerly (Thursday) winds gusting 30-45 mph primarily along and west of Kansas Highway 27. The National Blend of Models (NBM) is also favoring a windy model solution for Friday behind a cold front with northerly winds gusting to 45 mph. As we move into the latter half of the week model certainty with the pattern does decrease with the location of the upper level and surface troughs. While we do still have some moisture chances (<30%) along and north of I-70, it is possible the area could see nothing and be in the dry slot instead depending on the track of the surface low. Temperatures look to become more seasonal during the latter half of the week with highs in the 60s to 70s possible Thursday and Friday before cooling off post cold front into the 50s-60s Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 546 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with southerly winds relaxing through the evening hours. Winds expected to become much lighter, especially at KMCK. With 40-45kt LLJ redeveloping overnight, expect to see another period of LLWS at base of inversion for several hours at KMCK. Winds will gradually become westerly and then northwest by the morning hours. Think may be a bit breezier than previously expected, but not to the same strength as today.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1253 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Record high temperatures are possible Sunday and Monday.

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Sunday, March 29th:

Goodland, KS - Record is 88 (1943), forecast is 85.

Hill City, KS - Record is 91 (1943), forecast is 88.

McCook, NE - Record is 92 (1943), forecast is 88.

Burlington, CO - Record is 86 (2021), forecast is 84.

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Monday, March 30th:

Goodland, KS - Record is 88 (2010), forecast is 87.

Hill City, KS - Record is 93 (1943), forecast is 92.

McCook, NE - Record is 93 (1943), forecast is 89.

Burlington, CO - Record is 87 (2010), forecast is 86.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.