textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect a warming trend through midweek.

- A cooling trend will follow, by the end of the work week.

- Around 10% chance of fog and/or freezing drizzle favoring eastern portions of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

- Our next system looks to occur Friday, thankfully major impacts are not expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1252 PM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

Northwest flow is present across the area currently. A few embedded shortwaves and 500mb vorticity are noted as well mainly across far western portions of the Colorado counties and across the northern counties where some echoes are seen on radar. Highly doubt any of that is reaching the surface due to dry air at the surface. A bit stronger wave of 500mb vorticity is forecast to move through the area from around 00Z-04Z which may have a bit better chance at some flurries during this time but overall nothing impactful is forecast to occur. Our snowpack is still impacting temperatures with those locales struggling to get above freezing for the day. With weak low level forcing and flow overall winds have remained light and variable across the area but will change as a surface trough moves through that will shift winds to become more westerly. This westerly wind is forecast to help keep temperatures from fully falling overnight with western portions of the forecast area forecast in the mid teens and further east in the upper single digits to lower teens.

Wednesday, a very similar synoptic pattern is in stored with northwesterly flow continuing across the area. The difference is due to the surface trough moving through overnight that winds are forecast to remain from the west which leads to more of a downsloping component. The westerly wind is also forecast to advect in a bit warmer of an air mass as high temperatures in the low 50s are forecast for the area with the exception being the snowpack where highs are forecast to top out in the low to mid 40s. Winds are forecast to be a little breezier around 15 mph especially along and east of the axis of the trough whereas eastern Colorado is forecast to be a little lighter due to being further from the relatively tighter pressure gradient.

Wednesday night and into Thursday morning is forecast to see a low pressure system begin to develop across southwest Kansas and lead to some moisture advection across the eastern portion of the area. Winds are forecast to become more easterly as this occurs. Have some concern for fog to occur due to this along with any additional boundary layer moisture from melting snow. RAP and NAM both show some surface omega around -3 to -5 microbars which may lead to some freezing drizzle across eastern portions of the area (roughly Highway 25 on east). The LREF is also suggesting 20-30% chance of at least a trace of ice starting around 06Z Thursday through 18Z Thursday across the same area which does increase my confidence some. The part that is currently bringing me some doubt is if the saturated layer near the surface is deep enough for ice nuclei to develop or if it will just be fog/stratus potential. Due to this will refrain from introducing any freezing drizzle into the forecast at this time. Have put 10-14 chances into the forecast to account for this however for now. As the low pressure system moves out a cold front is then forecast to move through the area. 850mb winds are forecast to increase to around 20 knots leading to some breezy wind potential with sustained winds around 20-25 mph. The coldest of the air mass is currently forecast to remain across the east but some ensemble guidance does have it closer towards the Colorado border so will be something to keep an eye on. Slim chances for snow are forecast to continue through the night but overall forcing appears to be fairly weak so in the way of accumulation not anticipating more than a dusting at this time. High temperatures for the day are forecast to be around freezing where the coldest air resides to the mid 40s further to the west.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 315 AM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

The large scale pattern late this week continues to feature dominate north-northwest flow as a result of ridging over the western US and deep troughing over the Great Lakes and eastern US. A stronger trough dives out of Hudson Bay and to the southeast and on the western extent brings a mid level shortwave through the Central Plains Friday into Saturday. Synoptic forcing should be good as a jet streak passes along with PVA near the region, however this is a quick/progressive system with limited moisture advection and the strong consensus in ensembles is for a dusting of snow within the tri-state region late Friday into Saturday morning, with limited impacts. There are some members (20% probability on NBM) that show brief banding that may result in 1" totals, however these are currently outliers and that type of feature would depend highly on mesoscale forcing that caries a lower predictability horizon and impacts would still be low. This pattern does bring a reinforcing shot of cold air and while wind chills in the negative single digits Saturday morning may occur advisory impacts are unlikely as the coldest air remains east.

Beyond that system, ensembles show a strong signal for the continental pattern to start to break down allowing for shortwave ridging to progress eastward through the plains resulting in dry conditions and warmer temperatures (50s for highs).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 956 AM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Variable winds around 06 knots are forecast to continue through the afternoon along with mid to high clouds. A weak disturbance is forecast to move through during the late afternoon/early evening which may bring a slim chance of some flurries for MCK around 02Z but no impacts anticipated. A more produced WSW wind direction is forecast to prevail starting during the late evening for each terminal.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.