textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible over a limited portion of northeast Colorado today, mainly along and north of Hwy 34 in Yuma County.

- Wintry precipitation, including freezing drizzle/fog, is possible each morning Sunday-Tuesday.

- Most of next week, we see chances for precipitation across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Overview: WNW to NW flow aloft will prevail over the region through Saturday.. on the northeastern fringe of an upper level ridge over Baja, CA and western periphery of a broad upper level trough / cyclonic flow aloft over the central-eastern CONUS.

Today-Tonight: With little change in the synoptic pattern, expect sensible weather conditions similar to yesterday, albeit several degrees warmer (highs 67-72F). With little in the way of horizontal thermal advection, temperatures will largely be a function of sunny skies / airmass modification. An ill-defined MSLP gradient will foster light (~10-15 mph) winds across the majority of the area this afternoon, becoming light and variable around sunset this evening. Exceptions/caveats include: [1] southwest Nebraska and adjacent NE-KS border counties this morning (~13-18Z), when and where ~30 knot NW low-level flow on the southern fringe of an 850 mb trough (progressing east across the Northern Plains) may support a short period of breezy (25-35 mph) NW winds. Low-level flow in southwest Nebraska and adjacent NE-KS border counties will weaken to ~10-15 knots by early afternoon, as the aforementioned 850 mb trough rapidly progresses east toward the MS River Valley. [2] A narrow corridor of 20-25 knot NW low-level flow extending ESE from the Cheyenne Ridge into northern and northeastern CO may foster breezy (~15-25 mph) NW winds over northern portions of Yuma County this afternoon. Expect overnight (Sat morning) lows ranging from the upper 20's to mid 30's.

Fire Weather (Today): In southwest Nebraska and adjacent NE-KS border counties, poor temporal overlap between the breeziest winds (late morning) and lowest RH's (mid-late afternoon) suggests that critical fire weather conditions, if present, would likely be brief in nature. Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible in northeast CO this afternoon, mainly along/north of Hwy 34 in Yuma County where RH readings will bottom-out ~10-15% and NW winds may gust up to 30 mph, at times.

Sat-Sat night: Synoptic subsidence and surface pressure rises in the wake of a progressive mid-latitude cyclone tracking east across Ontario and Quebec will drive a Canadian airmass (~1035 mb high) SE-ESE from Saskatchewan into the Dakotas (this morning), Upper Midwest (this afternoon) and Great Lakes (tonight). The southern, modified fringe of the Canadian airmass.. progged to extend southeastward (roughly) from Rapid City, SD to Grand Island, NE to Kansas City, MO by sunrise Saturday.. will gradually advance southward and westward into northeast portions of the NWS Goodland county warning area during the afternoon and evening. Expect mostly clear skies with highs ranging from the mid 60's (Red Willow/Norton) to lower 70's (south of I-70) and overnight (Sun morning) lows ranging from the mid 20's to lower 30's.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 125 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

I won't sugar coat it, there's a 20-30% chance portions of the CWA get at least a glazing of ice between Sunday and Tuesday morning.

At 500 mb, a high over Baja California and a low over Hudson Bay will provide mild northwesterly flow, keeping the CWA in an unsettled pattern. Various shortwave ridges and troughs should be expected to propogate over the High Plains as a result. This setup largely continues until Tuesday evening/night.

We can expect moderate/heavy low level and mild upper level moisture advection during this time. The low level advection will be driven by a high over the eastern CONUS, proving southerly flow and Gulf moisture. In the mid levels (~700 mb), this is where we see a transition of the dominant high pressure system. This will likely (60-70% confidence) lead to warm, dry southwesterly flow into the Plains, creating a dry layer at this level. The slight northwesterly flow in the upper levels will bring in some moisture, just enough to keep a decent cloud covering over us.

Since we're not looking at any strong features pulling in cold air from the north, the NBM/NDFD/WPC have temperatures throughout Sunday- Tuesday warming to around 50 and cooling into the mid 20s. However, with the additional moisture and associated cloud cover, temperatures will likely not have such large diurnal swings. High will probably be more stunted in the low to mid 40s with lows dropping into the upper 20s.

The icing threat is going to largely come from having the low level moisture while temperatures are below freezing and a dry layer exists in the mid levels. Looking at probabilities from NBM and LREF, the potential for greater than 0.01" of ice along and east of a U.S. 83 is 10-25%, highest values farther east. This is corroborated looking at cross sections from the GFS, CMC-NH, and NAM. It's worth noting the ECMWF has temperatures largely remaining above freezing and the low level remaining dry.

In the icing scenario, as surface temperatures drop below freezing, freezing drizzle/fog or a light freezing rain will occur. This generally looks to occur between around 6-15Z daily. As temperatures warm above freezing each day, any precipitation will fall as rain/drizzle. As temperatures drop below freezing again overnight, any remaining liquid precipitation could easily become a refreeze/black ice concern.

There is another scenario (~10% chance) that the dry layer moistens early on, and snow becomes the dominant P-type while temperature are near or below freezing. Accumulating ice would likely not occur, but the overnight refreeze/black ice threat would remain.

Earliest reasonable timing for any precipitation to begin will be around Sunday 12Z. Chances for precipitation persist through the rest of the period, and we can't rule out the potential for icing throughout the week, but the freezing rain/drizzle significantly drops after Tuesday morning. As it stands, QPF is 0 Sunday-Tuesday during the main icing threat. However, the NBM does not always do well in dealing with near surface precipitation and a few hundredths of ice is possible (~5% chance).

Tuesday evening, we see the pattern changing as a low pushes through the western CONUS and over the High Plains with another low, potentially stronger, following it by 24-48 hours. This will give us more substantial chances at precipitation. There is considerable uncertainty regarding any specific for the forecast Wednesday and onwards, but rain, snow, or a mix of the two is likely.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 330 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

GLD: VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF period. W winds at 8-13 knots will veer to the NW and increase to 10-15 knots a few hours after sunrise (by ~16Z) and persist through the afternoon. Gusts to ~20 knots are possible during the late morning. Winds will weaken and become variable around, or shortly before, sunset and remain variable through the evening.. then shift to the SW or WSW and increase to ~8-12 knots overnight, by the end of the 12Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions and clear skies will rule through the TAF period. Light SW surface winds and a 40-45 knot NW low-level jet at ~1,000 ft AGL will foster LLWS early this morning. Expect LLWS to abate around, or shortly after, sunrise. W to WSW winds at 5-10 knots will veer to the NW and increase to 10-15 knots a few hours after sunrise (by ~16Z) and persist through the afternoon. Gusts to ~20 knots are possible during the late morning. Winds will weaken and become variable around, or shortly before, sunset and remain variable through the evening.. then shift to the SW or WSW and increase to ~8-12 knots overnight, by the end of the 12Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.