textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Overnight showers and isolated storms are forecast tonight; severe weather is not expected.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible this evening southeast of Norton to Tribune. Low chance of severe weather.

- Warming trend this week as Wednesday's high temperatures may get to above 100 degrees and may pose a fire weather threat.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

This morning, a weak 500 mb shortwave is allowing some showers move across the CWA. This precipitation is forecast to persist off and on into the mid-morning hours. Once the showers clear out, temperatures will warm to around 80. Winds will largely be southerly, but remain fairly weak.

This afternoon and evening, another shortwave looks to move across the region, which may fire off some storms in the southeastern CWA. There is a 20% chance these storms form in along and southeast of a line from Norton to Tribune around 3Z, before exiting the area by 9Z. There is a very low chance that a couple of these storms could tape into some 40-70 kts effective sheer and produce some hail up around 1.5-2 inches. However, most likely impact will be pea to nickel sized hail, if hail becomes a threat.

Later in the night, a high will be over the Southern-Mississippi River Valley as a low comes out of southern Colorado. This will allow southerly wind to flow into the CWA. This will let temperatures remain in the 50s and push additional moisture into the CWA. Patchy fog and stratus Tuesday morning, mainly along and south of U.S. 40. Lows look to cool into the low 50s in the northwestern CWA and may remain in the low 60s in the southeastern CWA where better moisture advection occurs.

Tuesday, we remain under northwesterly flow, as an 850 mb ridge moves over the CWA. This will keep precipitation chances near 0 as we warm up and start drying out again. Temperatures look to warm to around 90 as RH values in eastern Colorado drop into the teens. Northwestern Yuma county may see briefly critical fire weather conditions, but not enough for a Red Flag Warning.

Overnight Tuesday, a strong 850 mb low will be moving across the Northern Plains. This will increase the southwesterly flow across the region, and by sunrise Wednesday, gusts from the southwest look to be in the 25-30 kts range. This will certainly lead to much warmer lows overnight, likely remaining in the 60s, but some places may stay in the 70s overnight.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The upper pattern looks to have a ridge off the Pacific-Northwest and a Hudson Bay Low on Wednesday. The trough axis from the low does extend down into the northern part of the County Warning Area (CWA). Also over the region is a jet streak that does extend down to around 700mb. As we move on though the week and into the weekend the pattern overall stays the same with the ridge from the west and low to the northeast. There does look to be some shortwave troughs the look to come through on the weekend that may bring higher precipitations.

Wednesday looks to have the most weather activity. The main driving factor for this event will be a low pressure system off to our north- northwest. There will be two fronts associated with this low. A potential dryline and cold front. The high temperatures, they are currently forecast to be in the low 100s. The main locations that will see temperature above 100 will be south of I-70 and east KS Hwy 25. Guidance is suggesting there is about a 20-50% chance of exceeding 100 degrees. The reasonable maximum that could be seen is around 105 degrees. As for low temperatures they are forecast to be around 60-70 degrees and these are showing to be sightly above normal. The EFI SOT shows the there about a 0.5-0.8 for the northern portions of the CWA.

Moving to Fire Weather, as mentioned before the low off to the north- northeast will have a dryline. The sustained winds look to be from the west in the early morning then shifting to coming from the northeast during the afternoon. The main peak sustained winds look to be in the 20-35 mph. The gusts however look to be in the range of 35-45 mph. The main focus for the gusts is mainly over the eastern Colorado counties. However please refer to the Wind and Dust section for the uncertainty with the wind. Moving to the Relative Humidity (RH) values, the main uncertainty with how low they drop is how quickly the dryline moves through. If the dryline moves through quicker then the majority of the CWA will see values in the 10-16% with the lowest values in the single digits in the eastern Colorado counties. If the dryline moves slowly through the CWA then mainly the eastern Colorado counties will see the lower RH values less then 15%. Looking at GFDI, over the past few forecasts have steadily increased in values. Currently they are in the 50+ range and peak values 65+ in Yuma and Kit Carson Counties. This would lead to Very High to Extreme fore growth. The signal is there for at least Elevated Fire Weather Conditions, and if the ingredients line up at the same time we could see Critical Fire Weather for the eastern Colorado. Currently 30-40% that conditions will meet Red Flag Criteria at some point in the day.

There is a low end wind threat for Wednesday. Revisiting the upper level pattern again, there is the jet streak over the northern parts of the CWA. The highest winds that could mix down from 600-700mb level are around 50-55 kts. The main timing for the higher winds would mainly be in the early morning to midday hours. The main question is will there be an inversion near the surface. Guidance is indication there potentially for either a inversion or there won't be one. If there is an inversion the 50-55 knot winds wont mix down. For dust potential then, if we see localized gusts to mix down then we could see blowing dust with reduced visibility. If there is not an inversion then, the we could see those winds mix down. If that is the case then the dust threat would be more localized plumes and reducing visibility down to a mile and reducing air quality.

Shower/Storm Potential, is low but if the dryline decides to moves slowly then the dryline would be the main lifting factor for the showers. Currently on the moist side of the line, there is around 1000-2500 J/kg of CAPE along with 7-9 C/km 700-500mb Lapse Rates. This would be enough to promote storm/shower development. However this threat does look to be fairly low as the majority of Guidance is showing the dryline is well east of the CWA.

To summarize, there still is fair amount of uncertainty with the timing of this system. For the fire concerns, whether the western parts of the CWA sees the Elevated or Critical fire weather is how quickly the dryline moves through. For Wind and Dust the main concern is will there be an inversion is present or not. For storm/shower potential is very dependent on if the dryline moves through slower or quicker. Overall, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty but this around four days out and more can change.

For the extended part of the week. Thursday through Saturday temperatures look to be in the mid 80s to high 90s. Thursday does have a cool down, as there is a cold front moving into very late Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning from the system from Wednesday. This cold front should bring the highs down to the mid 80s. The winds and gusts both show some signs of there being gusts up to 30 mph but it varies day to day. Friday is currently showing a signal for it possibly having high winds. Both the NBM and LREF are showing about a 30-40% of seeing at least more than 30 mph. As for precipation chances, Saturday has the strongest signal for showers/storms. Saturday's SFC-CAPE values, from Guidance, are around the 1000-1500 J/kg for the mean. The 90th percentile for both the NBM and LREF are around the 1500-2500 J/kg range. These values would be supportive of showers/storms. NCAR AI NWP Convective Hazard Forecast does have some forecasts showing a 5-30% chance for severe hazards. Granted this is still about a week away and a fair amount can change.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1048 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable then favor a southwesterly direction after sunrise. There is around a 15% chance of precipitation until 15Z at KGLD and at KMCK until 09Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.