textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain began to fall Thursday afternoon in the area. The rain is forecast to continue until Friday afternoon/evening. The bulk of the rain should fall overnight Thursday into Friday.

- Another chance for precipitation is forecast around Sun/Mon.

- Colder pattern expected around Thanksgiving.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 109 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Precipitation is expected to continue as forecast. Rain will persist into the afternoon for most of the area. Precipitation will move out of the southwestern CWA around 18-21Z, and by 0-3Z only a few isolated showers will remain. The potential for snow in eastern Colorado has lowered to less than a 5% chance. There is a 25-35% chance of patchy fog in locations that are in a lull of precipitation, and once the rain moves out of an area.

Temperatures this morning are forecast to largely remain in the in the mid to upper 30s. Temperatures during the day will be heavily stunted by the rain and saturated profile, likely only warming to the low to mid 40s. Overnight tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing for most of the CWA. This will cause some refreeze concerns. Elevated surfaces that remain moist from the rainfall will likely freeze overnight, leading to slick bridges, railings, and raised ramps. Fog is not likely tonight, thanks to westerly winds. However, on the 15% chance fog does occur, it will likely be freezing fog, adding to the slick surfaces.

Saturday 12-21Z, there is a 5-10% chance a band of 500 mb vorticity will provide enough lift over a moderately moistened air mass that some sprinkles or flurries will fall across the northern CWA. Confidence is low because the vorticity may be too weak or not form, and a mid-level dry layer may melt out any would-be precipitation before it reaches the ground. Temperatures look to warm to around 60 Saturday, but if cloud cover is thicker, temperatures could top out in the mid 50s.

Saturday night, lows will cool to around freezing as we reach around 100% saturation again. Due to light south-southwesterly winds, widespread fog is not expected. If winds become calm for at least an hour, or moisture advection occurs overnight, fog would would have a greater chance off occurring. Current probability of fog formation Sunday morning is about 10%.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 106 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

The focus for this part of the forecast continues to be the precipitation chances early next week. Models continue to come into better agreement with this next storm system. The four different clusters the different model ensemble members fall into is much closer in agreement than what was seen yesterday. There has also been a shift favoring the earlier lifting of the trough to the northeast over the forecast area, which only half or so of the members favored yesterday. Along with this change the models have adjusted the track slightly further west. This shift has caused the precipitation to start earlier Sunday, ending earlier on Monday. Dew points continue to remain high enough to keep the precipitation as rain. Dew points fall below freezing behind the storm system; but precipitation should be ending by that point anyway. The better chances for rain, and higher rainfall amounts continue to be east of the forecast area where there will be higher instability present.

Behind this storm system another quick moving storm system moves through the Plains. Models have shifted the track of this storm system south. This has caused winds for Monday and Tuesday to be stronger; winds may increase a bit more, especially if the storm system shifts further south. This storm system is still too far north for the forecast area to receive precipitation as it moves through.

An upper level ridge will begin to move into the Plains toward mid week. Models have strengthened the ridge. This has caused temperatures to warm behind the two storm systems, with readings closer to normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1007 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

0725Z UPDATE: Due to a power and comms failure, KGLD TAF will be AMD NOT SKED until power and comms are restored. Due to the nature of the current and forecast conditions, a NIL TAF may be necessary if we visually observe the TAF is not even close to representative.

LIFR to VLIFR conditions are expected to prevail through the bulk of the period. Precipitation will continue until about 0Z, when conditions should start improving. Icing will be an issue just a few hundred feet off the ground as this cold rain continues.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.