textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and dry today with highs in the 50s and northwest at 10-15 mph.

- Warm and dry late weekend through next week with fire weather concerns especially late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1005 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

The snow that was moving through the area near the Tri-State border has been dissipating as the upper trough has been splitting. Meanwhile, higher surface pressure continues to push into the area near the surface. With the high center being somewhat small, a pressure gradient should linger and keep winds around 10-15 mph through the night.

For Saturday, the split of the upper trough is forecast to have an upper low move into the Baja Peninsula while the main trough wave continues off to the east of the area. With the area on the backside and drier air in place, tomorrow should be a bit mild with temperatures warming to the upper 50s underneath mostly sunny skies. Relative humidity is forecast to drop into the mid to upper teens, but no critical fire weather conditions are expected with a broadening pressure gradient forecast to keep winds around 10 mph. There is a small chance that an enforcing wave in the trough might drop the low pressure north of the area a little south, which could allow for a few gusts around 25-35 mph for locales near the Tri- State border. Saturday night, the mild conditions for this time of year continue with temperatures lowering to near 30 underneath clear skies and with winds remaining around 10 mph.

Sunday, the upper level flow is forecast to be somewhat from the northwest, but almost zonal. With the low level flow forecast to shift to out of the southwest, temperatures should warm more into the 70s. The warmer temperatures are forecast to help relative humidity lower into the low to mid teens across most of the area. Critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely though as broad low pressure is forecast to be in place across the area and High Plains, leading to winds around 10-15 mph. Not much is forecast to change going into Sunday night aloft or at the surface. With this, winds should remain around 5 to 10 mph with lows dropping into the 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 110 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

A secluded upper-level low looks to be in place over the Southwest United States and Baja California Monday morning, as a broad, deepening trough enters the United States from the Pacific Northwest. As this takes place, a surface low is favored to set up across portions of the Central High Plains. Surface winds may be out of the west during the morning hours, but flip southerly during the afternoon. As such, warm, dry conditions are favored Monday afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper-70s and relative humidities in the low to mid-teens across much of the CWA. Critical fire weather is not yet a major concern, as wind gusts are not currently forecast to meet criteria for the hazard (25 mph winds or greater). However, GFS and ECMWF model soundings for Monday afternoon indicate the potential for a mixed layer up to about 1.5 km, which could allow stronger winds to mix down to the surface. Winds at the top of the mixed layer may reach a sustained 15-20 knots, which could produce wind gusts 25 mph or greater if they reach the surface. Even so, NBM guidance suggests about a 50% chance or less for wind gusts of this magnitude to be experienced in Eastern Colorado, and even less of a chance for the rest of the Tri- State area. These gusts, if they can occur, are forecast to be brief during the mid to late afternoon. While short spurts of locally critical fire weather may be possible, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Monday sits around 5-10%.

As the trough from the Pacific Northwest digs southeast Monday evening and into Tuesday, the secluded low in the Southwest United States and Baja California Region looks to begin moving eastward as it gets reabsorbed into the main jet stream flow. This is introducing some uncertainty into the forecast, as ridging out ahead of the formerly secluded low competes with cold air from the digging trough. Forecast highs on Tuesday are currently in the upper-60s to mid-70s, though NBM 75th-25th percentile differences for max temperature are 15-20 degrees across the CWA. This would indicate the possibility of high temperatures 5-10 degrees higher or lower than the current forecast. Should the cold front reach the forecast region during the morning hours, cooler temperatures in this range may be experienced. The opposite is true if the pattern progresses slower and allows southerly to westerly flow to remain in place through the afternoon. Additionally, as both of the upper-level features move eastward, there may be a slight chance for precipitation. Current guidance is centering on Tuesday evening and night as the most likely period for precipitation to occur, though could extend into Wednesday morning. Rain is the favored precipitation type, though wintry precipitation could be experienced overnight if temperatures can drop below freezing. Forecasted lows Tuesday night are in the mid-20s to low-30s.

Troughing is favored overhead by Wednesday morning, with northerly winds still in place from the cold front. Cooler conditions are forecast, with high temperatures in the mid to upper-50s. However, ridging upstream of these upper-level features may allow a southerly return flow to develop during the afternoon hours. Timing on this wind shift is a little uncertain. If this process can occur during the early portions of the afternoon, high temperatures may increase around 5 degrees, most particularly across portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. This is represented in 10-13 degree differences in the 75th-25th percentile max temperatures Wednesday afternoon.

Warm, dry conditions look to be in place for the remainder of the forecast period. Southwesterly to westerly surface winds are forecast to overspread the CWA Thursday afternoon in association with ridging overhead and a surface cyclone moving east- southeastward across the Northern Plains. Highs are forecast in the low to mid-70s Thursday, with relative humidities in the mid to upper-teens. Critical fire weather may become a concern, as wind gusts 20-30 kts (23-35 mph) are possible. Similar conditions are in the forecast Friday, with highs in the 70s, relative humidities in the low to mid-teens, and westerly to northwesterly wind gusts of 20- 35 kts (23-40 mph), which could once again create critical fire weather conditions. Going into the weekend, cooler temperatures are favored upon cold frontal passage.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1005 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Ceilings around 1000-2200 feet are forecast through about 7Z as the last of some snow and lower level moisture finish moving through the area. Winds have generally been gusting to 20-30 kts from the northwest, but should weaken around 10Z. The rest of the period, VFR conditions are expected with clearing skies. Winds through the day should be around 10-15 kts, lowering to around 5-10 kts from the southwest after 00Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.