textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend through the weekend and into the start of the work week.

- There is a low chance for a severe storm or two Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats.

- Sustained winds of at least 30 to 40 mph are forecast across eastern Colorado Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1151 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Today, a shortwave trough dipping into a zonal flow caused by a high over the southern CONUS will allow some weak showers throughout the midday and storms to fire this afternoon. As that's happening, temperatures will be able to warm to around 90 today. This will drive RH values in eastern Colorado into the mid teens as winds gust in the 20-30 kts range. We are expecting briefly critical fire weather conditions, but there is only 50% confidence Red Flag criteria will be met.

As far as the storms, we're expecting a dryline to set up around a line from Norton to Tribune, KS and a weak cold front moving in from the northwest. Once these two boundaries near each other, storms will fire off the dryline. A broken line of storms is expected to convect in the 20-23Z time frame before moving to the east. Hazards from these storms would be hail up to 1.25 inches, but likely closer to nickel sized, and wind gusts of 40-60 MPH, the stronger of which may lead to some localized blowing dust. The severe threat looks to end around 1Z with remaining precipitation exiting by 3Z.

Tonight, the cold front looks to stall out over the CWA, diffusing as the night progresses. Temperatures are forecast to cool 50s to low 60s, being kept slightly warmer by lingering cloud cover.

Tomorrow, a 500mb low pushes over the Four Corners region, allowing a low disturbance to form in the lee of the Rockies. This will allow an 850mb Colorado low to form, promoting another round of storms tomorrow afternoon. These storms look to largely remain west of KS 27, focusing on eastern Colorado. Storms look to start forming around 20-22Z tomorrow, lasting until around 5-7Z. There is more CAPE but less shear with these storms, suggesting the hail threat is less, but the threat of a microburst is slightly higher. With that, winds up to 60 MPH would be possible, which could once again cause localized blowing dust.

Tomorrow night, as the lows from the west get closer, southerly flow looks to strengthen, with overnight gusts remaining around the 20 kts mark. This will work to keep overnight temperatures very similar to the previous night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 151 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Looking at the upper air pattern, there is a ridge that is set up over the area and will bring warmer temperatures and increased moisture. Starting with Tuesday, the high temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s, along with lows in the 50s. As for storm potential there is about 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE that could support thunderstorm development. The NBM guidance does show there being about a 20-40% chance of seeing more than 0.01".

Sustained winds do show a sign of concern for Tuesday, with having high winds for the the Colorado counties. The sustained winds look to remain out of the south and may reach up to 45 mph. Interestingly enough there is support from the EFI, showing the abnormal sustained wind speeds. The peak wind gusts will occur in the late morning to early afternoon. Currently, there is a 5-10% that we exceed 55 mph for wind gusts. Guidance is suggesting that the main driver behind the increase in sustained winds being so strong, is likely due to a 850 mb low level jet. There is so me concerns for blowing dust, however the confidence level is very low (5%). Guidance is showing, lapse rates that are either a tad bit to high for the 2-2.5 C/km or the 0.5-1 C/km are to low. The other thing to look at is soil moisture, especially if precipation does occur this weekend, as of right now the moisture is above 50%.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper pattern has some uncertainty with how this trough evolves and moves through the region. There is some models that suggest the it will deepen and move slower compared to the other side where it will cut off and move though quicker.

For the high temperatures for Wednesday, cool down to mid 70s and low 80s. The lows remain in the 50s. As for winds, they transition to come from the southeast. Wind gusts may reach up to 35 mph. Moving to precipitation and storm chances, there is a 30-50% chance of exceeding 0.1" for 24 hours. As for storm potential, there is CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range which would be sufficient for storm development. Thursday and Friday look to be very similar to Wednesday with highs in the high 70s and low 80s. Along with winds from the southeast. The wind gusts do remain lower than the previous days in the range of 15-25 mph. As for precip/storm chance are pretty much the same as Wednesday with CAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range.

There is a small threat for flooding during this three day period. The main concern is that there could be a convergence zone over Kansas. This will likely bring moisture from the south. Given the present CAPE for each day storms/showers will likely be present. Guidance is also showing that the PWATs for the storm environment around 0.9" with higher values to the east where they could reach 1.3". One other thing to mention is the vertical shear is very low. If this scenario pans out then flooding could be concern.

One final note for this three day period forecast, as mentioned before, there is some uncertainty with the movement of the system. That ultimately will affect the CWA's storm/showers and flooding potential. As we move closer to the event, more information will be available to investigate further.

Saturday's forecast does depend on what happens during the week. Currently, the highs look to be low 80s and lows in 50s. Winds do shift back to coming from the southeast and gusts remain in the 15-25 mph range. There is the standard CAPE range as days prior so there could be showers and or storms present, but this a week out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at both KGLD and KMCK. Scattered storms are forecast this afternoon, but should remain clear of both of the airports. Gusty winds will gradually weaken as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. LLWS tonight from the southwest at 40 kts around 200-400 feet AGL is expected, however the start timing could be a few hours earlier than shown in the TAFs. Either way, it should cease around sunrise as stronger winds gradually mix to the surface.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.