textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for severe storms continues today through Friday. Peak time is forecast to be during the late afternoon and early evening hours if storms form.

- Increasing signal for above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1024 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Current observations show a large upper trough around Montana ans Southern Canada slowly pushing east with a large ridge over the Ohio River Valley. There is also a large broad low in the Southwestern United States with a shortwave/small cut-off low trying to form just southwest of the area. Currently, this setup is streaming clouds into the area which should keep us mostly cloud to cloudy through the day. Occasional breaks in the clouds are forecast to allow most of the area to warm into the 80s, though some may stay in the 70s. Winds have been from roughly the south with low pressure to the west and high pressure over the Ohio River Valley. The gradient has been tight enough for winds to be between 15-25 mph with gusts to 40. This is forecast to persist through most of the day.

In regards to precipitation, we've had a few showers linger with the synoptic support and increased moisture. Spotty showers could linger through the day, but nothing severe is expected through the early afternoon with the weak instability and shear. But as the main trough axis swings east, the shortwave moves closer, and heating/instability increases, the environment should become more supportive of storm development. If temperatures favor the mid 70s, MUCAPE is forecast to be more around 1500-2500 J/kg which would support weak pulse storms. The severe threat would be very low at that point. Though it is worth noting that even warmer temperatures and more CAPE closer to 3000 J/kg would still favor pulse storms with a slightly higher chance for severe storms. The 0-6km shear of 15-30 kts is forecast to be too low for storms to organize. With this, any storms that form should pulse or cluster, likely leading to heavy rain and small hail. However, any storm that can be discreet or take advantage of better shear from storms modifying the environment could produce large hail to around 2", maybe even up to 2.75". Regardless of the strength of the storms, the tornado and wind threat is on the lower side. For winds, the flow and downshear vectors are both around 35 kts, favoring wind gusts to 50 mph. The max is still around 60-70 mph if a downburst can occur. For tornadoes, low LCLs are supportive. The inhibitor is that the low level shear and helicity are both forecast to be on the low side. This may support a brief spinup, but that seems to be the extent of the tornado threat.

As for timing and placement, there are two zones of interest. The first is roughly along and east of Highway 83. A convergence zone along the leading edge of the surface low is forecast to set up during the afternoon. This zone may morph or move a bit due to the outflows from the early showers, but should fire up storms between 2- 5pm MT/ 3-6pm CT if the environment isn't too stable. The second would be along the higher terrain in Colorado west of the area. This line should move in from the east, with both sets of storms generally progressing east/northeast. The colorado storms will likely have lesser instability with slightly lower moisture availability, leading to a lower chance for severe weather with this round of storms. Overall, not expecting more than a few severe storms as a whole. There is also the possibility that if the instability favors the lower end guidance for no severe weather to occur.

Tonight, the threat for severe storms should end before midnight as instability lowers and the upper waves move east. Showers may linger through the night though with outflow boundaries in the area along with enough available moisture. This should keep most of the area in the 60s for temperatures, with 50s possible in the west if the system pushes far enough east to bring in some drier air and clearer skies.

Thursday, the area is forecast to go into a psuedo-zonal flow on the backside of the upper trough axis. At the surface, the low pressure is forecast to drag a bit further east into the area. For now, the forecast keeps the center a bit west of the area which will allow the winds to stay breezy from the south around 10-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. The stronger winds should be in the eastern portions of the area. Drier air is also forecast to push in with the trough moving east and the advancing surface low, allowing for sunny to mostly sunny skies for a majority of the area. Those east of Highway 83 may stay in the cloud cover through the day. If they do, highs would be in the 70s and low 80s instead of the upper 80s and low 90s like the rest of the area.

In regards to storms chances, there is the possibility for showers to linger through the day east of Highway 83 where moisture and outflow boundaries could be located. The rest of the area will likely be too dry, along with the main forcing west of the area closer to the Front Range. While storms should fire up over there due to convergence along the leading edge of the low and a shortwave around Wyoming, the current forecast favors the storms falling apart or shifting north of the area. If a storms makes it, there maybe is chance for a marginally severe storms, but the threat looks to be below 2%. The showers in the east should pull east of the area late in the day as the upper features continue to shift east. This should lead to a calmer night with partly cloudy skies. Even with the clear skies, lows again are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s with surface dewpoints remaining in the 50s and 60s along with winds around 10 mph keeping the low levels mixed.

Friday, upper level ridging is forecast to amplify into the Northern Plains. This will put the area under slight ridging, but almost more of a spilt flow with weaker flow over the area. The area is forecast to be a bit warmer in the 90s with the ridging and sunny skies. Winds are forecast to be a bit lighter with speeds around 5-15 mph with the weaker flow and a broadening pressure gradient. Storm chances are lower with little clear features short of possibility a weak low pressure center just southwest of the area. Between this and maybe outflows from storms early in the day east of the area (if they form), there may be just enough forcing for a few quick storms to fire up during the afternoon and evening. With lesser instability, these would likely be pulse storms with a chance for marginal severe threats. The best chances are forecast to be in Northwest Kansas. During the night, any storms that form should clear or move east of the area early in the night. Temperatures are then forecast to fall to around dewpoint in the 50s and 60s again underneath mostly clear skies.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Medium rannge models in general agreement that flow aloft will transition to a more amplified flow pattern with large scale trough developing over the Northern Rockies with general ridging developing across the Southern Plains. Main dilema facing the area will be the exact position of all of these features as the CWA will really be on the edge of things, with stronger flow (and resulting wind shear) being just to the west of the area and strongest subsidence to the southeast. With surface low bringing persistent south/southeasterly flow to the area, think we will have enough low level moisture available for diurnal thunderstorms even if overall pattern remains uncertain. Severe threat will be strongly tied to where the stronger flow aloft develops and while ensemble mean data tends to support this staying west of the area, some of the latest machine learning medium range guidance at least bringing some low chances for severe weather through the start of the week which seems reasonable.

Other concerns for the long term will be related to amplifying ridge and general warming trend. Fairly confident temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s by the middle of the week as ridge amplifies, although area will be on the gradient of temperatures which does lower overall certainty in upcoming forecast. A period of breezy southerly winds is expected on Sunday as low intensifies, but think surface trajectories will likely hold dewpoints and humidities up somewhat, limiting fire weather threat.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through at least 06Z. The main concern is the potential for storms. The storms may start as early as 20Z, but are more likely between 23-04Z. The storms are forecast to produce heavy rain, lightning, and maybe some hail. Showers could linger to around 09Z, but are more likely to end by 06Z. Once the showers/storms end, low clouds are forecast to try and move in from the south. KGLD is forecast to see ceilings lower to around 1000ft, with ceilings as low as 300ft possible. Fog may also try and develop. KMCK also has a chance, but is more likely to have ceilings at or above 5000ft. The low ceilings if they develop should lift around 15-16Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.