textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing concerns for Fire Weather Monday through Wednesday, with Monday being the day of lowest concern.

- Warm, dry conditions will dominate the next week.

- Wednesday will be breezy before and after a cold front; gusts Wednesday evening/night could gust around 40-60 MPH behind the cold front.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1216 PM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

Today, a high is moving east across southern Kansas. This is leading to south-southwesterly flow across the CWA. This flow is working to clear out the remaining stratus, which should dissolve by sunset. However, we are looking at some mid to upper level clouds moving over the area this evening. The strong southwesterly flow is leading to wind gusts in the 20-30 kts range, and a few 30-35 kts gusts could occur this afternoon, too. Highs today are at the whim of the clouds. The western CWA has cleared before the rest of the area, so they will be the warmest. Temperatures in the west should climb into the low 50s this afternoon. The eastern CWA will see the stratus last the longest, which will keep temperatures in the low 30s today. A few places will likely remain below freezing today, mainly near Norton county.

Tonight, winds will weaken around sunset and a weak cold front will be moving through the area late in the night. Lows will be warmer, thanks to the WAA earlier in the day, mostly remaining in the 20s, potentially upper teens in the eastern CWA. The potential for freezing fog in the morning is basically 0 at this point with the northwesterly flow and drier air.

Tomorrow, as the trough driving the early morning cold front exits to the east, winds will be pretty weak, generally remaining under 15 kts. Temperatures will be warming quickly, into the upper 50s to low 60s. The warm temperatures with no additional moisture will lower RH values into the mid to upper teens in eastern Colorado and 20-30% elsewhere.

Monday night, northwesterly flow persists and really nothing of note looks to occur. Lows will cool into the mid 20s to low 30s with the eastern CWA still being the coolest.

Going into Tuesday, there is a shortwave 500mb trough moving across the area in the morning. Due to a lack of moisture, we're not expecting any precipitation. 850 mb flow from the north-northwest looks to range around 20-30 kts, which given the mid 60 temperatures, could easily mix to the surface.

Fire weather conditions are not overly concerning Monday with the weak winds, but it will work to dry out the area. Tuesday is the day of greater concern. NBM shows minimum RH values to be in the mid teens in the southwestern half of the CWA. There is a 40% chance dew points are lower than the NBM is expecting, which would lead RH values to drop into the low to mid teens. Winds will likely (70%) remain under 23 kts, but that leaves a 30% chance of stronger gusts, up to 30 kts. This would lead to critical fire weather conditions. Confidence in meeting Red Flag Warning criteria is currently around 25-30% for Tuesday.

Tuesday night, a high pressure system looks to move over Kansas and start southerly flow overnight. Even with the southerly flow, clear skies will allow us to cool to around 30. There is a hint we could get some moist air advection into the CWA overnight, which would help Wednesday's RHs.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

Wednesday, we'll be sitting under mostly zonal flow with a slight northwestern favoring. This will allow the persistent warm and dry conditions to continue. We will see a pretty powerful low moving towards the area. Current guidance is showing the 850 mb low will come out of the northern Rockies Wednesday, and by the afternoon start up a LLJ over the CWA. This LLJ will create a southerly flow of 30-40+ kts at 850 mb. We should mix moderately well Wednesday afternoon, meaning these 30-40+ kts gusts will likely make it to the surface. The NBM shows RH values dropping into the low 20s, banking on the early morning moist air advection. If the moist advection does not occur or the temperatures warm up past the mid 60s, RH values will drop into the low to mid teens. This is leading to some moderate fire weather concerns, especially in the western half of the CWA. If we get a stronger signal RH values will be in the mid to low teens, Wednesday will likely need a Red Flag Warning.

Wednesday evening into the night, guidance is showing the bulk of the low and the associated cold front to move through the area. With the cold front, we're expecting to see pressure rises of 1-2 mb per hour over 6-12 hours. During this time, 850 mb flow is screaming from the northwest at 40-55 kts. There is a ~30% chance these winds mix down, leading to surface gusts of a similar speed.

There is a ~10% chance the cold front comes through in the early to mid afternoon Wednesday. If this happens, we could see some blowing dust. Even though we're warming up nicely Wednesday, lapse rates are not overly impressive, sitting in the 5-7 C/km range. This is likely too low of a lapse rate to support widespread blowing dust. At this point, the blowing dust concern is something to keep in the back of the mind as the winds look to be the bigger impact.

The cold front Wednesday evening will bring in cooler temperatures, mostly just impacting Thursday's highs. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the long-term, topping out in the 40s. Once the low and cold front exit the area Thursday, zonal flow will return. Saturday afternoon/night, we are seeing signs of a broad, fairly weak, trough moving in from the northwestern CONUS. If this trough does impact us, expect some cooler temperatures next Sunday, but there's a 60% chance the trough doesn't form.

Overall, highs are forecast to warm into the upper 50s to 60s with lows in the 20s. Thursday looks to be cooler, and Friday night may have some clouds, keeping us in the 30s. Precipitation remains unlikely through the long-term.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 412 PM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites. Drier is filtering in and helping to clear skies across the area. Winds are forecast to be from the south/southeast to begin the period, and then slowly shift to out of the northwest as the night goes on.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.