textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70 where warm temps, low humidity and SW winds at 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth.

UPDATE

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Recent model guidance/trends suggest that the northern extent of critical fire weather conditions will be located (roughly) along the I-70 corridor. With this in mind, the Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and expanded slightly northward in area to include the I-70 corridor.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Troughing for today has set up further south than what was being seen yesterday as a surface low across Nebraska wound up being further south which has inhibited the strength of the winds for today. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph remain forecasted but wind gusts with the weaker wind field may only support 25-30 mph gusts versus the potential for 40 mph that I was seeing yesterday. With the warm temperatures and humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens, despite the marginal winds will leave the Red Flag Warning in place. Overnight, strong 700-500mb vorticity is forecast to move across the area leading to an increase in mid level moisture. A cold front is also forecast to move in from the north as well which should help provide enough lift to lead to some sprinkles given the very dry air remaining at the surface. With the front an increase in dew points is forecast to occur as well across the north where some stratus and perhaps some fog may be possible as well.

Tuesday, a low pressure system is forecast to develop which will send the cold front back north as a warm front. There still remains variability on exactly where the low will set up as the GFS,NAM and RAP all favor a northern location but the ECMWF ensembles and ECWMF AI keep the low further south. Similar to what was mentioned yesterday a further south low would limit the fire weather potential versus a further north would lead to greater coverage of fire weather potential. I did go ahead and issue a fire weather watch for locations south of Interstate 70 where if the northern track of the low did develop this is where the fire weather conditions should occur at. Also did issue to avoid confusion with any fire weather partners as surrounding offices do and have had fire weather products out. I do have concerns that the further south low scenario will pan out as there has been a subtle southern shift in guidance over the past 24 hours and that has been the trend with the systems in reality over the past 24 hours. Currently confidence is around 40- 45% for multiple hours of critical fire weather in the forecast area so just enough to warrant the Fire Weather Watch.

Confidence has increased some in rainfall potential for northern portions of the area since confidence is increasing in the southern low scenario. Showers and storms are forecast to increase in coverage Tuesday evening as a 500mb jet stream puts northwest portions of the area in the left exit region of the jet and the increased lift within the developing low pressure system. A warm front should be along the Kansas/Nebraska line where guidance is suggest around 500 j/kg of CAPE which should be enough to lead to some thunderstorms developing. There is slim (less than 5%) chance of severe weather mainly in the form of damaging winds but with unstable lapse rates and very high shear if a updraft could sustain itself then large hail may occur as well.

Wednesday, is forecast to be a little cooler on the backside of the low as winds are forecast to remain from the northwest; highs for the day are forecast in the 70s. After any lingering rain in the morning moves out drier air is again forecast to move in from the northwest but leading to perhaps marginal at best fire weather conditions across Yuma and Dundy counties, any rain from Tuesday may be enough to minimize fire weather concerns as well for at least one day.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Western United States Thursday morning. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to take place across the North-Central High Plains through the afternoon. Additionally, GEFS guidance suggests an 850-mb high pressure will exist across the Southeastern United States, and back into Mexico and Baja California. These two features look to establish southerly to southwesterly surface flow across the forecast region Thursday afternoon, yielding warm and dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s, with relative humidities (RH) in the upper single- digits to lower-teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be a concern during the afternoon and evening hours, with wind gusts forecast in the 25-40 mph range across most of the CWA. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across most locations in the forecast region, with over a 90% chance across portions of Eastern Colorado. Further, LREF guidance suggests over a 90% chance for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Higher end scenarios would be associated with a stronger central low pressure across portions of Eastern Wyoming and Montana, and the Western Dakotas. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is currently highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, around 30%.

The upper-level trough from the west looks to move across the forecast region Friday, pushing a surface low pressure across the Central High Plains eastward. A strong cold front is favored to begin traversing the forecast region sometime between the afternoon and evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are possible ahead of the cold front, though a slower eastward progression of the surface low would be required. About 60% of GEFS and EC members are in line with a slower cold front, which could be associated with some critical fire weather conditions across portions of West- Central Kansas and East Central Colorado. However, the 40% of members that show a faster cold front would mitigate the risk across this zone. A freeze, along with some snowfall may also be experienced with this cold front. Current forecast guidance suggests low temperatures in the lower-20s to lower-30s across the forecast region Friday night, with a 40-55% chance of light snow across portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. NBM guidance suggests a 30-45% chance for the snowfall to be measurable (>0.1 inches) across this zone, with over a 75% chance for sub-freezing temperatures across most of the forecast area Friday night (nearly a 100% chance across portions of West Kansas, far Southwest Nebraska, and Eastern Colorado). Cooler conditions may continue into Saturday, with forecast high temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s during the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced Saturday afternoon as well, though is highly in question considering the lower temperatures. LREF guidance suggests about a 40-60% chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria Saturday afternoon across most of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado.

By Sunday morning, upper-level troughing looks to be fully off to our east, with upper-level ridging approaching from the Western United States. This pattern favors a return of warm and dry conditions through the end of the forecast period Monday afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the low to mid-70s and upper-70s to lower-80s Sunday and Monday respectively. Relative humidities may drop into the low to mid-teens both Sunday and Monday, but is currently more confined to Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas on Monday, as GEFS guidance indicates that the 850-mb high across Mexico and Baja California may erode and allow a better moisture return from the Gulf of America. Forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range both days may indicate further risks for critical fire weather conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will this evening and overnight will shift to the WSW and increase to 10-15 knots during the mid-late morning.. then back to the SW and further increase to 20-30 knots during the afternoon. Breezy SW to WSW winds will persist through sunset. Winds are likely to shift to the NW or N at some point Tuesday eve/night.. near the end of the 06Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. A broad low pressure system will track eastward across the Tri-State Area on Tue. Low confidence in wind direction at the McCook terminal. Winds may remain variable through much of the 06Z TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Tuesday: Dangerous fire weather anticipated in southern portions of the area Tuesday afternoon. Expect similarly warm/dry conditions but with stronger SW winds (~20-35 mph gusting to 45 mph), strongest south and east of Goodland. Both the northern extent and magnitude of critical fire weather conditions will highly depend on the evolution and track of a deepening low pressure system in Colorado during the day Tuesday. Recent model guidance/trends suggest that the northern extent of breezy SW winds and critical fire weather conditions will be located roughly along the I-70 corridor. With this in mind, the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and expanded slightly northward in area to include the I-70 corridor.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ253-254. NE...None.