textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect sunny skies, dry conditions and a day-to-day warming trend through early next week.

- Rain during the afternoon with a transition to a rain/snow mix Tuesday night is forecast. Little to no accumulation is currently forecast. - Warm and dry late weekend through next week with fire weather concerns especially late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 153 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Northwest flow due to a upper level ridge over the Western CONUS while low pressure sits off the Southern California coast. A lee trough is maturing along the Front Range as the center low develops in Southeast Colorado. Guidance across most of the CAMs, GFS, ECMWF is favoring the developing low tracking across Southern Kansas overnight into Monday morning. Forecast remains on track to see relative humidity values drop into the teens through the remainder of the afternoon with occasional gusts to 25 mph, mainly along and west of Colorado border. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s tonight with light southwest to westerly winds.

As the low/trough progresses across the area, the main impact will be some breezy winds leading to locally critical fire weather concerns primarily in Southern Yuma to northern Cheyenne County in Colorado. Relative humidity (RH) values across the area will likely fall into the low to mid teens with southerly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible Monday afternoon once the winds shift with the passing trough. Due to a lack of confidence in widespread wind reaching the 25+ mph criteria, the decision was made to hold off on a Red Flag Warning for now. High temperatures could be in the mid 70s to lower 80s tomorrow. We are still seeing a westward trend of the 80s over the last two forecast packages, which could make the forecasted RH even lower.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, a cold front is expected to move south into the area as another sweeps along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Current guidance is favoring the front moving in around 12Z for the northern portions of the area, but there are still a few model solutions favoring a later arrival more during the afternoon hours. As the two systems pass through the Great Plains, moisture from the south will try to advect into the southern to southeast portion of the area Tuesday afternoon with additional low level moisture moving in from behind the cold front closer to Tuesday evening/overnight and converging over the Tri-State area. The area should mostly see light rain with this and a transition to light snow over East-Central Colorado and locales north of I-70 in Kansas and Nebraska overnight Tuesday. Depending on the timing of the front (i.e. slower solution) we could see potential for a few weak thunderstorms generally along and south of I-70. Winds will increase behind the cold front with gusts of 30-40 mph possible. If these winds occur during the transition to snow, which has a 30-40% chance, we could see some visibility reductions due to blowing snow Tuesday night though the snow ratios are favoring more of a wet snow than a dry one. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s depending on how quick the front pushes in by the afternoon hours. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the mid 20s to the low 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Northwest flow will persist through the period with no precipitation expected. Temperatures will be near normal to start the period in the wake of Tuesday's system, but then warm to above to much above normal Wednesday through Saturday before cooling again to near normal on Sunday behind a cold front. The only hazard concern through the period will be fire weather. Afternoon relative humidity minimums will be in the teens in part of the area each day. The best potential for meeting wind criteria appears to be Thursday. Winds increase aloft with a jet streak moving through the northern plains. Models show westerly winds gusting 30-40 mph in areas generally north of Interstate 70 Thursday afternoon with relative humidity approaching 10%. On the remainder of the days, wind is more marginal as far as meeting critical criteria of 25 mph gusts. There is some increase in wind possible on Sunday behind the front, but the post frontal air mass will be much more humid and not meet criteria.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 515 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KGLD through the TAF period with clear skies and light winds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.