textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory through 9am CT for most locations along and east of Highway 83. Some slick spots due to freezing fog possible.

- Red Flag Warning for today for all of southwest Nebraska along with Yuma and Kit Carson counties in Colorado and Cheyenne, Rawlins and Sherman in northwest Kansas.

- Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions on Tuesday. Very dry conditions and winds gusting over 60 mph will create conditions favorable for explosive fire growth.

- Blowing dust may reduce air quality in eastern Colorado and adjacent areas on Tuesday. Low visibility due to dust plumes may also hinder travel.

UPDATE

Issued at 417 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Have removed Thomas, Logan and Wichita counties from the Dense Fog Advisory. Winds have become more westerly advecting in slightly drier air into the area which increased dew point depressions and ended the dense fog threat. Freezing fog has also been reported at the Oberlin and Norton Airports as temperatures have fallen to freezing. Be aware of light icing from this especially on any elevated surfaces.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 206 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

An elongated surface high is located across the area leading to light winds around 5 mph. Dense fog has developed across eastern portions of the area where dew points remain in the low to mid 30s; further to the west, westerly winds are bringing in drier air leading to the edge of the fog bank around Highway 25 currently. Am anticipating a gradual eastward shift of the fog through sunrise. Some freezing fog still can't be ruled out across Norton, Graham, Sheridan and Gove counties around sunrise as temperatures may flirt with freezing.

For today, essentially a pseudo dryline is forecast to develop southwest to northeast across the area. A surface trough is also forecast to nudge into the area leading to breezy south-southwest winds around 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Multiple hours of critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. If the dry line could shift to the north a little bit more then the southern portion of the current Red Flag Warning could be impacted and the conditions not occur. Have opted to upgrade the rest of the Fire Watch to a Red Flag Warning for today. Was a little iffy on the humidity side of things for Sherman and Rawlins county but opted to do so due to mixing to around 3000 feet AGL where nearly all guidance was suggesting that dew points in the upper teens to low 20s lie which should mix down to the surface this afternoon. Did go a little warmer on temperatures for today than the previous forecast package closer towards the 75th percentile due to south- southwesterly winds which does favor more of a "furnace" component. Highs are forecast in the low 70s across the north to the low 60s across the southeast.

Monday, another mild day is in store with most of the are forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s. Low humidity values are forecast in the mid teens to low 20s along and west of Highway 25 to the low 30s further east. Currently concern for fire weather is pretty low as we are forecast to be in the axis of the surface trough. A developing surface low across southeast Colorado may bring an hour or two of gusts of 20-25 mph that could lead to localized critical conditions to western portions of the Colorado counties but think the overall threat will be rather limited due to overall weak flow in the 850 and 700 mb layers. Southeasterly winds are also forecast to be in place which further lowers my confidence in fire concerns as this typically keep humidity from fully falling.

Tuesday continues to be the day of concern as a multi hazard day appears to be in store as a large trough ejects on to the Plains. Near record to monthly record highs are possible with highs currently forecast in the 70s to low 80s. I would not be surprised at all if they continue to increase due to the southwesterly "furnace winds" being in place. If the southwesterly winds could have their full effect then high temperatures could be another 5-7 degrees warmer than forecast. Temperatures Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning are forecast in the upper 20s to upper 30s across the area.

Starting with the wind, a High Wind Watch has been issued for along and west of Kansas Highway 25 confidence is around 60-70% that wind gusts exceeding 60 mph will occur. Highest confidence is for counties along and west of the Kansas/Colorado border however. A 3-4 hour window where 850mb winds increase is seen during the morning where sustained winds of 40-50 mph are possible along with wind gusts around 65 mph. Through the remainder of the afternoon the 850mb wind field does decrease some but sustained winds of 30-40 mph remain possible still, the concern for high winds comes from very deep mixing to around 10,000 feet AGL where gusts of 40-60 mph remain possible. It can't be ruled out that with additional cold air advection during this time frame with an initial cold front that we would mix even higher where 55-75 knot winds are located. Gusty to strong winds are forecast to continue through evening as pressure rises occurs behind a cold front with a wind shift to the WNW. Mixing heights during the evening are forecast to be around 1500- 2000 feet and with another round of cold air advection wind gusts of 45-55 mph may still continue through the evening hours with 3 hour pressure rises of 4-6mb.

The next of the multiple hazards is fire weather. With the warm temperatures and winds talked about above one should be able to assume that critical fire weather is a concern. The ceiling for this event is extremely concerning for mid February standards. A combination of near record to record highs, low dew points and RH falling at least into the low teens and damaging wind gusts sets the area up for a high end fire weather day. The Fire Weather Watch has been expanded into the rest of the forecast area as confidence continues to increase for this event occurring. Fire weather concerns could continue as well through the evening as winds remain strong and with limited humidity recovery.

Dust, plumes of blowing dust due to the southwest winds are possible during the late morning through the mid afternoon due to the initial surge of dry air. As mixing heights increase current thinking is that surface visibilities should improve as more of a haze develops. A caveat to this however is if with the initial cold front that shifts winds to the west from the north west that a wall of dust could form. Confidence in this is currently around 10% due to the high mixing heights and the decrease of the 850mb wind field. Another round of dust could occur during the evening as well with the next cold front/wind shift. The burn scar near Heartstrong could be more of a source region due to the northwesterly winds creating a larger fetch.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 152 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Wednesday, the second punch in our 1-2 punch will be moving into the area. In the morning hours, we get a weak 850 mb ridge to move over the CWA, which will kick-start our southwesterly flow. around 18-0Z, an 850 mb low will be coming out of the central Rockies and moving east. Once this low passes through the CWA, we look to remain on the northern side of the 250 mb jet, in a more unsettled and very uncertain pattern.

These features causing southwesterly flow into the CWA Wednesday, should drive temperatures into the 60s to low 70s. This will drive RH values down into the low teens Wednesday afternoon. Winds are the big question for Wednesday. With the current path of the 850 mb low (along/slightly north of the KS/NE border), afternoon wind gusts southwest of a line from Yuma, CO to Leoti, KS are forecast to gust over 25 kts for a few hours, with areas near Flagler, CO gusting up around 40 kts. Areas to the northeast of that line should see gusts around 15-20 kts. It's areas southwest of the line that we're worried about returning prolonged critical fire weather conditions. Confidence in needing a Red Flag Warning for southwestern parts of the CWA Wednesday currently sits around 50%.

If the timing of the low speeds up 6-12 hours, it will be able to form a moderately strong LLJ of about 30-40 kts over more of the CWA, generally locations along and south of U.S. 36. This would allow similarly strong gusts to mix to the surface and spread the fire weather concerns across this portion of the CWA. Confidence in this occurring is about 20-25%.

Overnight Wednesday, temperatures look to cool into the 20s, which should allow RH values to rebound back into the into the 50s-60s. The NBM /NDFD show 10-20 PoPs across the northwestern CWA Wednesday night. There looks to be plenty of forcing from 500 mb vorticity, but there is a very dry layer from the surface to 700 mb, severely degrading the potential of precipitation over night. If anything falls, it would likely be some flurries.

With the 250 mb jet setting up somewhere over the CWA to south of the CWA, there is extreme uncertainty with temperatures, RH, PoPs, and P-type Thursday through the rest of the period. To highlight the uncertainty, NBM 25-75 percentile maximum temperature spreads Thursday through Sunday range from 10-15+ degrees. This spread could be the difference from RH values being in the mid teens, leading to critical fire weather concerns, or RH values being high enough that would could see a few rounds of light precipitation. Additionally, if we were to get any precipitation, this spread could be the difference in snow or rain. This spread also explains why the NDFD has RH values around 20% with 20-30 PoPs, and snow with near 50 degree temperatures.

There is about 70% confidence that no high-end hazards occur during this time. However, there is a 30% chance we could see some low-end hazards, such as critical fire weather or slick roads from wintry precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 401 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Keeping a close eye on fog for MCK this morning but is remaining to the east of the terminal. Current TAFS are VFR for each terminal but MCK still has a 10% chance of some visibility reduction due to fog but am skeptical on it due to the westerly winds. Winds are forecast to shift to the southwest and become breezy late morning through the afternoon with gusts around 25-30 knots. Winds are then forecast to again shift this evening becoming more variable to northwesterly.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions remain forecast for today across western and northern portions of the area. The lower confidence for 3 or more hours of critical conditions lies across Rawlins and Sherman counties. Winds appear to be there but there is some concern that dew points will not fall enough and there may be some weak moisture advection moving up from the south that could keep humidity values around 20%. The reason for issuance was due to mixing heights of 3000-3500 feet AGL where nearly all forecast soundings was suggesting dew points in the upper teens to low 20s. Mixing this winter has been very strong even in shallow mixing days so expectation are that this will continue to be the case.

Humidity Monday night into Tuesday across western portions of the area looks to remain around 45% as temperatures are not forecast to fall out of the 40s. This sets the stage for a concerning fire weather day Tuesday. Confidence is there that critical fire weather conditions will occur across most if not all of the area Tuesday but there is the potential for a high end and dangerous fire weather day. 10 hour fuel moisture according to the Kansas Mesonet is forecast to fall to around 10% which is representative of very dry conditions as warm and breezy temperatures today and Monday looks to mitigate Wind gusts of 45-65 mph are currently forecast along with sustained winds of 25-40 mph. The strong signal for the high sustained winds, warm temperatures and very low humidity also results in numerous hours of extreme Grassland Fire Danger values across the area. The concerning part of the forecast lies with the potential for single digit humidity due to southwesterly winds, near record to record high temperatures and wind shifts through the day. The initial wind shift from the southwest to the west is forecast to occur during the afternoon hours. GEFS-Mean Spread is hinting at a delayed wind shift which would allow for warmer than forecast temperatures that will continue to lower humidity even more. Another wind shift is forecast during the evening with winds becoming more northwesterly and wind gusts up to 55 mph continuing as well. Blowing dust is also a concern which could cause additional static driven fire starts. Limited humidity recovery is again forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday as lower dew points move in with RH forecast not to get above 50%. Critical fire weather is again forecast to occur Wednesday as well.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ001-002-013. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ003-004- 015-016-029. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252-253. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for COZ090>092. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for NEZ079>081. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NEZ079>081.