textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds gradually diminishing this afternoon.

- Chance for rain Wednesday night south of U.S. 40.

- Temperatures near to slightly below normal through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1019 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

The low that has been creating inclement conditions over the past couple of days is slowly exiting the region, to the east. A brief upper-level ridge is building in from the west, replacing the low. This will usher in more mild conditions for the the majority of the midweek.

As the low is exiting today, it will still be close enough to create breezy conditions. Throughout the midday, gusts around 25-35 kts are still expected across the CWA, but as we get into the late afternoon, the stronger wind gusts will become less common. Around sunset, as the inversion sets up, winds will finally weaken under 15 kts.

Due to morning and early afternoon clouds, temperatures today will only top out in the low 50s. Overnight, as the winds weaken and the sky clears out, temperatures will fall to around and below freezing for the entire area. Wind chills Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the 20s, with areas near the Tri-State border cooling into the low 20s for wind chills.

Wednesday, the ridge mentioned above will allow mild conditions to persist throughout most of the day. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 50s under sunny skies! In the afternoon and evening hours, a 500 mb low will be crossing over the southern Rockies, allowing an 850 mb lee low to form. The path of this low is forecast to remain well south of the CWA, but areas along and south of U.S. 40, mainly Greeley and Wichita counties, may get scraped by some showers or weak storms after 0Z Thursday. Overnight lows will once again cool into the low to mid 30s across the area. All precipitation is forecast to be rain.

Thursday, as the 850 mb low exits to the east-southeast, northwesterly flow will return, with gusts around 20-25 kts possible. This will work to keep temperatures from getting too nice, capping out in the 50s. Overnight, widespread freezing temperatures are forecast to return, after all it is November.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 257 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

A quieter pattern is likely to dominate the County Warning Area (CWA) this weekend into early next week. Upper-level flow starts off from the northwest Friday as a mini-ridge slides across the high plains. Ensemble guidance shows this ridge moving quickly to the east and weaken quite a bit heading into Saturday. Simultaneously, a mini-trough is anticipated to propagate across the CWA through Saturday, becoming more positively tilted as it makes its way east. This should usher in zonal flow transitioning back to northwesterly as another ridge starts to influence the area on Sunday. This second building ridge likely will be quite a bit larger than the first; therefore, will be expected to influence the Tri-State area for a longer period of time. Meridional flow should accompany this system as the ridge axis passes over our region then southwest flow likely follows thereafter. Thus, dry conditions are likely to persist through early next week.

Descending to the surface, guidance projects high pressure to form late this week and last through early next week. There is medium confidence on a cold front passing through Friday as well as a low chance for a front late Monday as well. These should both be dry passages as Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) remain at or below 5% through Monday. Dewpoints are forecast to be quite dry, ranging in the 30s and 40s throughout the long-term forecast period. Mostly sunny skies are anticipated to dominate the forecast period, outside of some cloud coverage with the frontal passage Friday as well as overnight into Saturday morning.

High temperatures across the CWA should stay seasonably cool (mid to upper 50s) through the weekend until Monday where it warms into the mid 60s. Forecasted low temperatures will be something to keep an eye on this week as freezing to near freezing overnight temps are likely throughout the CWA this weekend and into Monday morning. Friday morning should be the coldest as lows around 28-32 degrees are possible. Fire weather should not be a big concern this weekend and through Monday despite Relative Humidity (RH) values forecasted as low as 25-30% for eastern Colorado and 35-50% for the rest of the Tri-State area. Model guidance shows winds being fairly weak through Monday with 5-20 mph expected throughout the CWA. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible in windier locations of eastern Colorado on Saturday but other than that, 15-20 mph gusts should be expected everywhere else.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 953 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions are returning the the region and are expected to persist for at least the next 36 hours. KMCK and KGLD will see nearly identical conditions through the period, too. Winds from the north-northwest are expected to gradually decrease through the afternoon, with 30-35 kts gusts becoming less common. Around sunset, winds will become northwesterly and generally be in the 8-13 kts range.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.