textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Low rain chances will continue to diminish into this evening; flooding is not expected with this activity.

- Areas of patchy dense fog are likely to develop early Tuesday morning with additional patchy fog possible both Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

- Near freezing temperatures are possible along and north of US-34 on Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

An upper level shortwave trough is currently sliding across the Central Plains with upper ridging over the southeastern CONUS into the Ohio Valley. An upper trough is digging into the Northern Intermountain. At the surface, a low is positioned over the borders of northeastern Colorado, northwestern Kansas, and southwestern Nebraska. A cold front extends from this low through southern Nebraska. Low stratus clouds remain over the area and will likely last through the evening, resulting in cooler high temperatures than previously thought especially in far northwestern Kansas and far southwestern Nebraska. Highs in these locations are likely to top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Farther south, highs will climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

As we move into tonight and Tuesday morning, low temperatures will drop to near freezing along and north of US-34 with lows farther south between the upper 30s to lower 40s. Given similar dewpoints are expected with light variable winds, patchy dense fog is likely to develop. Areas of patchy dense fog is more likely in eastern Colorado and portions of far northwestern Kansas and far southwestern Kansas as the HREF has probabilities between 50-70% of visibility less than a quarter mile. This trend will continue to be monitored as its possible a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed.

As the surface low traverses northeast, southerly winds will return to the area by late Tuesday morning to early afternoon. This will advect warmer temperatures back into the area with high temperatures forecast to rise into the 60s. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, a slight chance (about 15%) of drizzle or light rain showers appears possible as the LLJ ramps up over western/northwestern Kansas combined with 850 mb WAA. Limited impacts are expected from this activity given the dry air above ~800 mb. As lows drop into the 40s on Wednesday morning, patchy fog is possible to develop again though likely will not as widespread as Tuesday morning. Low-level westerly flow will lead to warmer temperatures on Wednesday afternoon with highs near 70 across the area. Similar to Wednesday morning, patchy fog will also be possible on Thursday morning as lows drop into the 30s and 40s with calm winds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 239 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Thursday, our region is forecast to be in a mostly southwesterly upper-level flow with a developing trough in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). The track and evolution of this trough will determine precipitation chances heading into the weekend and early next week.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be pleasant, with most of the county warning area (CWA) reaching the upper 60s to 70s. Friday is when we start to see a potential pattern change from the aforementioned trough in the PNW.

Currently, the trough is forecast to become more of a cut off low sometime late Friday/early Saturday. This would favor more widespread precipitation chances as it would generally keep our region in a southwest upper-level flow with various embedded shortwaves being ejected across the area Friday through Monday. Current Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 20-40% Friday through Monday. Precipitation is expected to generally be showers. Instability is overall weak Friday with modest lapse rates and spotty CAPE values of <500 J/kg, so a weak thunderstorm or two isn't out of the question if it is able to tap into the weak instability in the environment.

If the trough digs farther south instead of becoming a cutoff low, a more active weather pattern could develop due to stronger synoptic forcing and greater moisture availability.

Outside of precipitation chances for the weekend, temperatures are expected to be mild with high temperatures forecast in the 60s. Monday has the potential to be a windy day with gusts up to 50 mph possible for eastern Colorado. This will also depend on how our system for the weekend pans out, but something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Showers, fog, and low ceilings continue to impact KGLD and KMCK as cold front sag southeast across the region. LIFR to IFR ceilings should persist through much of this afternoon and evening; however, pockets of MVFR to VFR ceilings cannot be ruled out tonight before low clouds and patchy fog return after 06z. Conditions should improve after 12z Tuesday morning from south to norther, and VFR conditions should resume after the end of the TAF period at both sites.

As the front passes through, a brief window of 20 to 25-knot northwest winds is likely before winds decrease to around 10 knots. As the surface ridge slides across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, winds will be light and variable. Then, light surface winds should become predominately southeast by Tuesday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.