textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers will develop over portions of the area Wed afternoon into Wed night. Best chance for rain will be in northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska.

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect Thursday afternoon for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado and Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties in Kansas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This afternoon, the 500 mb vorticity persists and some easterly flow at 850 mb is bringing in some additional moisture. This could be enough for some light precipitation later this afternoon, generally along and north of I-70. If precipitation occurs, it will start off as rain, but as the night progresses, some isolated flurries may mix in. Overnight temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing, but in the 30s.

Wednesday, things get more interesting. Temperatures look to top out in the upper 50s and 60s, coolest in the northeastern CWA, as a 500 mb trough pushes in from the west. This will give us increasing forcing throughout the day as an 850 mb low from southern Colorado pulls in more moisture from the east. PoPs increase throughout the day, peaking around 21-06Z Wednesday evening. The entire CWA has a greater than 60% chance at seeing some precipitation. As it stands, there's a 50% chance most of the CWA receives 0.1 inch of QPF by Thursday morning.

There is potential for some thunderstorms to mix into the ongoing precipitation after 21Z, but severe weather is unlikely. The biggest hazard would be winds coming out of the storms. Most likely gusts would be in the 35-45 kts range, with peak potential of 55 kts. There is also a 15% chance snow starts mixing in along and north of U.S. 34 early Thursday morning, on the back end of the precipitation. We're also watching the potential for black ice forming Thursday morning as temperatures once again fall to around freezing.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A 500-mb low is forecast to move across the Wyoming Rocky Mountains Friday morning, with an attendant surface low pressure stretching from Central Kansas to the Oklahoma Panhandle. Downsloping surface winds out of the north-northwest to northwest look to inject dry air into the CWA, with the NBM suggesting a 40-50% chance of single- digit dewpoints across portions of Eastern Colorado. Critical fire weather may be a concern Friday afternoon, with relative humidities in the mid to upper-teens and wind gusts 25-40 kts (28-46 mph) forecast. Critical fire weather conditions would be heavily driven by wind in this case, as both NBM and LREF guidance give over an 80% probability for wind gusts to exceed critical fire weather criteria, with NBM 50th percentile surface wind gusts already 30 mph or greater across most of the region. Additionally, LREF guidance indicates about a 30-40% chance of relative humidities hitting criteria for critical fire weather across Eastern Colorado and West- Central Kansas. There is also a slight chance for elevated convection to occur behind the cold front Friday afternoon, with the NAM currently forecasting up to 150 J/kg of MUCAPE in portions of Northeast Colorado. While precipitation from this convection could hinder the fire weather danger, it seems more likely at this point that dry air near the surface will prevent precipitation from reaching the surface. Dry lightning in Yuma and Dundy Counties would be more of a concern, as it could serve as an additional fire starter. The best scenario for this event to not occur would be if surface temperatures could cool further from the cold front or increased cloud cover, which would increase relative humidities across the area. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Friday afternoon is highest for Eastern Colorado around 25%. High temperatures Friday are currently in the upper-50s to mid-60s, with lows in the mid to upper-20s.

Troughing may still be overhead Saturday morning, with north- northwesterly surface winds still in place. Cooler conditions look to remain, with highs forecast in the low to mid-60s. Critical fire weather danger is not yet a concern Saturday afternoon, though the current forecast shows 25-35 mph wind gusts across Eastern Colorado, with relative humidities in the upper-teens. LREF guidance shows up to a 50% chance of relative humidities to meet thresholds for critical fire weather in southwestern portions of Cheyenne County Colorado, but less than 25% across the remainder of Eastern Colorado. If relative humidities could drop a few more points, then critical fire weather could become more of a concern. This would occur if surface winds have a more westerly, downsloping component than the current forecast.

Northwesterly 500-mb flow looks to be in place over the forecast region Sunday and Monday, which could allow several embedded shortwave systems to impact the forecast area. The most influential of these shortwaves looks to be a shortwave trough ejected out of Northern Canada. Warmer conditions out ahead of this system are currently favored, with highs in the low to mid-70s across the forecast area both days. Critical fire weather could once again be a concern, with relative humidities in the low to mid-teens Sunday, and mid to upper-teens Monday. However, wind gusts look to be a bit weaker than Friday and Saturday, with the current forecast showing 20-25 mph gusts Sunday, and 25-30 mph gusts Monday. NBM guidance suggests around a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet critical fire weather criteria in portions of Eastern Colorado Sunday, and 60-70% chance on Monday. Even so, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed either day at this range is around 10%, as forecast gusts and RH values are barely meeting criteria.

The shortwave trough ejected out of Canada looks to traverse the Great Lakes Region Monday afternoon and Tuesday, allowing a surface high pressure system to enter the Interior United States. Slightly cooler conditions are possible from this system, with highs forecast in the mid-60s to low-70s across the CWA. Ensemble guidance would appear to favor ridging over the forecast region Tuesday afternoon through the remainder of the period. Forecast highs on Wednesday are currently in the upper-70s to lower-80s. An approaching trough from the Western United States may have the chance to influence weather in the forecast region Wednesday afternoon, though its impacts are currently unclear due to timing uncertainty. Around half of the GEFS members are showing precipitation in the forecast region Wednesday afternoon from this system, whereas 75% of EC members point toward a drier forecast with further critical fire weather risks. As such, Wednesday could be a multi-hazard day, where the weather experienced in the forecast region is highly dependent on the timing and track of the incoming shortwave trough.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1014 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

GLD: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through early to mid afternoon. MVFR conditions associated with scattered showers are possible during the late afternoon and early evening, mainly between ~22-02Z. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the evening. MVFR ceilings are anticipated to develop a few hours after the 06Z TAF, ~06-12Z Thu. E winds at ~10 knots will veer to the SE and increase to 15-25 knots a few hours after sunrise. Winds will further veer to the SSE and increase to 20-30 knots during the early afternoon, as a low pressure system in CO deepens and tracks east toward the CO-KS border. South winds will weaken to 10-15 knots shortly after sunset (~02-03Z Thu) and may become variable during the late evening.. as the surface low tracks eastward over western KS.

MCK: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through early to mid afternoon. MVFR ceilings are anticipated to develop during the late afternoon (~21Z), with ceilings lowering to IFR by/around sunset. Ceilings may further deteriorate to LIFR during the late evening, at/near the end of the 06Z TAF period. Scattered showers are possible during the late afternoon and evening, mainly ~23-04Z. Light NE winds will veer to the E and increase to 10-15 knots around sunrise (~13Z). Winds will further veer to the ESE-SE and increase to 15-25 knots during the early afternoon, as a low pressure system in CO deepens and tracks east toward the CO-KS border. Breezy SE winds will back to the E and decrease to 10-15 knots during the late evening, near the end of the 06Z TAF period, as the surface low tracks eastward over western KS.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ027-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for COZ252>254. NE...None.