textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible in eastern CO and nearby KS-NE border counties between 5-11 pm MDT. Damaging winds are the primary hazard.

- A few severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly in eastern Colorado and nearby Kansas and Nebraska border counties. Damaging winds would, once again, be the primary hazard.

- Afternoon and evening storms are possible through much of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A shortwave is emanating off of the Rockies and is forecast to move onto the Plains and the CWA during the overnight hours. 315K isentropic surfaces on 00Z RAP and NAM both indicate another boundary being located between Interstate 70 and Highway 36. Some flooding concerns may materialize with this especially for those that saw heavier rain early today as PWATS remain around 1.7 to 2 inches which is quite juicy for NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Corfidi vectors remain around 15-30 knots which isn't overly slow but could produce some nuisance flooding especially with those PWATS. Water vapor imagery does show some dry air remaining however north of I- 70 which could potentially shunt the better coverage off to the south. Severe storms are not likely but still can't completely rule out a rogue 60-70 mph wet microburst. The new storms may continue through the morning hours Tuesday. If we dont't get the coverage of storm currently anticipated then the environment is setup for dense fog. Due to the higher confidence in rainfall am leaving fog out of the forecast for now.

Tuesday is forecast to be cooler than the past few days with closer to the normal temperatures in the 90s as the high pressure moves to the southwest. Shallow mixing and light winds will help prevent drier air aloft falling to the surface resulting in another muggy day across the area. I did bring up dew points a few degrees due to this fact as well. Also nudged high temperatures down a bit across the northeast as I have concerns about cloud cover remaining thick through the day due to plethora of moisture in place. Another shortwave is forecast to come off of the Rockies during the afternoon hours Tuesday increasing again our shower and storm potential. Majority of guidance does have a cluster of storms moving into the Colorado counties. Damaging winds and very heavy rain again appears to be primary threats with high MUCAPE, DCAPE and microburst composites around 5. Very high PWATS again around 1.7 to 2 is forecast along with similar Corfidi Upshear and Downshear vectors of 20-30 knots. Wind shear does appear to be a bit better than Monday with 0-6 bulk shear around 25-30 knots so some hail Still a bit high for a flooding concern but with the PWATS some nuisance flooding may again be on the table. Some guidance either has outflow getting too far out ahead of the storms and weakening them as they approaching the state line and others has the storms missing the area entirely as the environment may not be able to recover from the overnight storms. Currently am leaning towards the storms at the minimum enter the CWA across eastern Colorado as 315K moisture remains in place. Currently think the storms will make it to the Highway 27 corridor at the least as moisture vectors should continue to keep the cluster healthy. Am a bit concerned however about the fact that some guidance does show the outflow coming out from it quicker than anticipated which if is the case would end any severe and rain chances through the night. Should we get the cluster of storm or the outflow we will have to watch for blowing dust especially across eastern Colorado who the smallest amounts of rain occurred.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

***Thursday***

GEFS and EC 500-mb height ensembles still show a broad high/ridge across much of the United States Thursday morning. At the same time, a shortwave trough traveling around the ridge anticyclonically is forecast to be overhead. A surface low at the leading edge of the shortwave will allow a cold front to traverse the Great Plains throughout the day. Showers and thunderstorms are possible at the leading edge of the cold front, though are currently not expected to be severe. LREF guidance suggests only a 25% chance or less that sfc-500mb wind shear will exceed 30 kts, with the highest chances in Southwest Nebraska and along US-283 in Kansas. GFS and EC model soundings support this solution, showing less than 30 kts of 0-6 km wind shear in this zone. However, latest GFS and NAMNST model soundings do show an inverted-V up to about 3 km, which may indicate microburst potential with storms. Confidence in storm coverage is low at this time, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests only up to a 1 in 3 chance to receive greater than 0.1 inches of rain across the forecast area. Confidence in severe weather occurring is around 5% Thursday.

***Friday/Saturday***

Thursday's cold front looks to begin eroding the strong ridge across the Great Plains, moving the ridge axis westward over the Four- Corners Region by Friday morning. Flow at 500-mb over the forecast region is favored to be northwesterly to northerly through Saturday. As such, highs are forecast to slightly drop into the low to mid 90s Friday, and upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday. A surface high in association with the ridge looks to be to the north of the forecast area, and may establish southerly winds across Eastern Colorado Friday evening, with easterly flow across Western Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. As such, showers may develop across Eastern Colorado Friday. Again, coverage is uncertain at this time, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests less than a 25% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across most of this zone. However, strengthening of the shortwave trough to the east may support the development of a 500-mb jet streak over the region. This is reflected in LREF sfc-500mb wind shear guidance, which shows a 40-60% chance of wind shear greater than 30 kts across Eastern Colorado. If thunderstorms are able to take advantage of this, they may be allowed to become severe. Even so, confidence in severe weather Friday evening is about 5% due to uncertainty in the coverage.

***Sunday-Tuesday***

The ridge axis is favored to be overhead once again Sunday as a strong 500-mb trough traversing Southern Canada and the Northern United States pushes it east. Conditions would warm up again into the mid and upper 90s Sunday, and upper 90s to lower 100s Monday. However, conditions look to be drier. GEFS 850-mb guidance shows a weak low in the U.S. Southeast. This would create northerly flow across the Texas coasts and prevent moisture from returning to the forecast region. Relative humidities (RH) may drop into the lower 20s to upper teens during this period. While this does not meet critical fire weather criteria (RH<15%), NBM guidance shows a broad region across Eastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska with a 50% chance or higher of experiencing wind gusts over 30 mph both Sunday and Monday. Considering that fuels are drier across this region, the potential development of critical fire weather conditions may be something to keep an eye on going into the weekend. Additionally, a surface low associated with a trough to the north may produce a few showers along a cold front Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

GLD: Light easterly or variable winds are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of the TAF period. Storms are possible late this afternoon and evening, between ~02-06Z. Confidence in thunderstorm development and coverage decreases east of the CO-KS border, enough-so that explicit mention of thunder will be confined to a PROB30 group with the 18Z TAF issuance. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of any showers/storms (including decaying convection or convective remnants). With light winds and a very moist airmass over the region, sub-VFR ceilings and/or visibilities with fog are possible during the early morning hours (~08-14Z Wed). Very low confidence in fog/stratus development.

MCK: Light easterly or variable winds are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of the TAF period. Storms cannot be ruled-out this evening. Confidence in thunderstorm development and coverage decreases considerably east of the CO-KS border, enough-so that thunder is not explicitly mentioned with the 18Z TAF issuance. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of any showers/storms (including decaying convection or convective remnants). With light winds and a very moist airmass over the region, sub-VFR ceilings and/or visibilities with fog are possible during the early morning hours (~08-14Z Wed). Very low confidence in fog/stratus development.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.