textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog is likely to redevelop this evening into Wed morning. Locations along/north of I-70 are most prone.

- Mild/dry conditions are forecast for mid-week.

- An active weather pattern may develop late this week, bringing potential for more widespread precipitation throughout the weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 325 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Overview: The primary belt of mid-latitude westerlies / northern stream jet will remain over the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and Northern Plains. In the lower-levels, guidance suggests that modest southerly flow will shift to the W late Wed morning.. as the lee trough presently centered over eastern CO weakens and shifts eastward into western KS.. then shift to the ENE late Wed and Wed night.. as an inverted surface ridge (assoc/w modest pressure rises over the northern Rockies and Dakotas) extends southward through Nebraska into northern CO-KS.

Tonight-Wed Morning: Recent runs of the HRRR continue to indicate that dense fog will redevelop over portions of the area (along/north of I-70, in particular) after sunset and that dense fog may persist through much of the morning. Given that (1) today's dense fog persisted into the afternoon, (2) that, as of 2045 UTC, stratus/low ceilings are still present over northwest KS/southwest NE and (3) that there will be little change in the low-level pattern tonight, this seems pretty reasonable. With a westerly wind shift expected during the late morning, dense fog would likely abate from west to east no later than 15-18Z (9a-12p MDT Wed).

Wed Afternoon: Expect a west-east clearing trend, with daytime highs in the upper 60's to mid 70's.

Wed Night: Easterly /upslope low-level flow will likely facilitate widespread low stratus/fog development overnight. Today's 18Z HRRR suggests that widespread dense fog will develop over the Goodland CWA between midnight and sunrise Thu. Expect overnight lows ranging from the upper 30's to mid 40's, coolest in eastern CO and southwest NE, depending on cloud cover. Lows could occur relatively early (by midnight) in some areas, depending on the timing, location and extent of stratus/fog development.

Thu-Thu Night: Guidance suggests that renewed lee trough development in CO will re-establish southerly low-level flow late Thu into Thu night. Low confidence in temperatures, which will highly depend upon fog/stratus coverage and longevity. Highs may range anywhere from the lower 50's to upper 60's. Low stratus/fog and an increasingly southerly component to low-level flow should foster relatively warmer overnight (Fri morning) lows ranging from the lower 40's to lower 50's.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 241 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Friday, our region is forecast to be mainly in a southwesterly upper- level flow with a developing trough in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Sunday, a second deep digging trough over the Pacific Ocean will move inland. This will interact with the existing trough over the PNW, but models diverge on how this interaction will play out. The track and evolution of these troughs will determine our precipitation chances heading into early next week.

Currently, the first trough is forecast to become more of a cut off low sometime late Friday/early Saturday. This would favor more widespread precipitation chances as it would generally keep our region in a southwest upper-level flow with various embedded shortwaves being ejected across the area Friday through at least Tuesday. Current Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 20- 60% Friday through Monday, increasing west to east. Precipitation is expected to generally be showers. Instability is overall weak Friday with modest lapse rates and spotty CAPE values of <500 J/kg, so a weak thunderstorm or two isn't out of the question if it is able to tap into the weak instability in the environment.

Monday has the potential to be a windy day with gusts up to 50 mph possible for eastern Colorado. This will also depend on how the upper-level troughs and precipitation chances pan out, but something to keep an eye on.

Temperature wise, Friday is expected to be pleasant with high temperatures forecast in the 60s to 70s. Saturday through Monday, we cool slightly with highs in the 60s. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, temperatures could approach freezing across our Colorado counties, with the potential for our first snow of the season. Confidence remains low overall due to uncertainty in the weekend forecast, especially given that it is 7 days out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 354 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

..Poor Aviation Conditions Tonight and Wed Morning..

MVFR conditions at the McCook terminal and MVFR to VFR conditions at Goodland late this afternoon are expected to rapidly deteriorate after sunset this evening. Dense fog and/or very low ceilings (100-300 ft AGL) are expected late this evening into Wed morning. Guidance suggests that conditions will improve from west to east during the late morning (~15-18Z) and that a clearing trend will follow, during the afternoon. Light SE winds this evening and overnight will shift to the NW or N late Wed morning. Winds may become variable during the late afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday for KSZ001>004-013>016. CO...None. NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday for NEZ079>081.