textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight generally south of Interstate 70 with best chances south of Highway 96. A few wind gusts of 50-60 mph possible with stronger storms.

- Fog is possible overnight, mainly along and south of I-70. There may be patches of dense fog with visibility near one quarter of a mile.

- Seasonal temperatures expected today and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 228 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Current observations show a upper level zonal flow over the area with a broad trough over the Northern United States and broad ridging over the Southern United States. A smaller trough is located roughly over Montana and moving east. At the surface, higher pressure and a colder air mass have moved in with the surface low and front now over Oklahoma. With this and lingering cloud cover, temperatures have been hovering in the upper 70s through mid 80s. This should hold through most of the afternoon. Tonight, there will be some chances for storms south of I-70 as the smaller upper trough moves over the Plains, helping storms develop west of the area. We may also have outflows from the storms south of the area that move north and help develop some additional storms. The chances for severe weather will be low with storms updrafts likely competing with each other. If a storm does stay isolated, there is a chance for a severe storm with large hail around an inch and wind gusts near 60 mph. We also will have a low chance for flooding if the outflows generate storms before the cluster from the west arrives. Overall, the chance for flooding and/or severe weather is less than 10%. The increased low level moisture both from the precipitation and low level easterly flow will also give the area a chance for fog. Fog will likely form just north of wherever the precipitation is occurring, and has a small chance of becoming dense.

To start the day tomorrow, a few showers may linger depending on if any outflow boundaries persist in the area. Fog could also linger into the morning hours if the precipitation didn't interrupt its formation. Most of this should clear by the noon hour as we slowly heat up for the day. With the area forecast to be in zonal/split flow behind the smaller trough, temperatures aren't forecast to change much with highs in the 80s. The main change will be winds from the south with low pressure forecast to develop in the Northern High Plains. With a lack of features over the area, precipitation is unlikely from the afternoon through the remainder of the day. Lows tomorrow night are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s for most of the area. A few 70s may be possible east of Highway 83 if we keep enough low level moisture for some clouds and fog to form.

Friday, zonal flow is forecast for most of the day while another upper trough slides east across the Northern United States. For the daytime hours, the southerly low level flow is forecast to help advect in warmer air and allow for temperatures to warm into the 90s across the area. Winds at the surface could be a bit weaker than Thursday if the advancing surface low and front move over the area. Otherwise, there is a 20% chance that winds could be closer to 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

With the surface low and front in the area, thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Storm chances currently favor east of Highway 27 as the front brings drier air in behind it and lowers chances for western parts of the area. There is some variability though in how far the dry air will advance, so the whole area still has a low chance. Should storms form, a few may be able to become severe with MUCAPE forecast to be around 2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear around 35 kts. The storms would then continue east before likely dissipating shortly after midnight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Over the weekend, there is low confidence (25%) for chances of severe weather due to the lack of forcing. Saturday night, chances for storms will be relatively low, but will increase at midnight near US 283. The main potential conditions of interest are heavy rain and small hail. Precipitable water (PWats) is forecast to be in 1.55 inches, CAPE above 1200 J/kg, and a "low" melting layer below 16,000 feet. On Sunday, storms are possible again in the evening hours with chances ranging from 20 to 60%. For now, the better chances favor the northern half of the area.

On Monday and Tuesday, the chances for storms continue as a potential upper trough slices through the Northern U.S. While there is variability on when the trough moves through the area, storms are possible each day in the evening. Which ever day the trough moves through will likely have a chance for severe weather.

Temperatures will be fairly consistent Friday with highs in the mid 90s and then drop into the low 80s Saturday as the overnight cold front comes through. There is medium to high confidence (50-70%) that afternoon temperatures will stay in the 80s for the remainder of the period as there is a large spread of 10F degrees within the guidance that could put temperatures in the upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures will finally start to fall from the summer heat.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1106 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for most of the period. There is possibility of fog and ceilings around or below 1000ft between 09-15Z. The better chances are at KGLD, but both sites should keep an eye on conditions. Winds will stay from the north through the remainder of the day today around 10 kts. There may be a few gusts to 20 kts. Winds should then shift to out of the south at 10 kts during the overnight hours.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.