textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- 5-10% chance of freezing fog/drizzle in the eastern parts of the area Saturday morning leading to slick morning travel.

- Large temperature gradient across the area over the weekend, with colder temperatures generally east of Highway 83/23 and milder temperatures in Colorado.

- Milder temperatures in the 50s, 60s, and maybe 70s return early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Today, a weak shortwave 850 mb trough with northwesterly 500mb flow is over the area. Temperatures have climbed into the 70s across the area, nearing record highs. Keep an eye out for any RERs (record notifications) tonight. These temperatures and no additional moisture are briefly pushing RH values down into the mid teens. Winds are a bit of a concern too, mainly in Yuma county. With such warm temperatures expected, winds are forecast to mix very well, allowing northwesterly gusts of ~30 kts to mix down. There is also a 60% chance isolated gusts around 40-45 kts will occur in northern Yuma county. The threat for widespread impactful blowing dust is less than 10%. If isolated 40+ kts gusts occur, they would likely lead to blowing dust reducing visibility to less than a mile in a fairly small area. Main timing for the winds and any associated impacts are before 23Z.

Sunset will once again bring in an inversion, which will weaken the winds quickly. Temperatures overnight will cool to around 30 across the area, with the northwestern CWA being the coolest, in the upper 20s. By Friday morning, there is a 5-10% chance of patchy fog/freezing fog across the CWA. We're expecting a high pressure system to move in from the west and bring in cooler temperatures. We're expecting north-northwesterly flow to dominate with this high, leading to CAA, but likely preventing fog. However, stratus is expected to move in. There is a 5-10% chance some weak omega and a mid-layer convergence zone may lead to some light flurries around Sunrise.

During the day Friday, the high will move across the CWA. This will once again help the sky remain mostly clear and allow temperatures to warm into the 40s and low 50s. Depending on how quickly the high moves over the CWA, temperatures could flex about 5 degrees either way. A slower high would keep temperatures cooler as the CAA would persist longer into the day. A faster high could bring in slightly warmer southerly flow during the midday.

Friday night, a shortwave trough is forecast to move over the CWA from the northwest. Most of the mid and upper-level moisture will have left the area, but near-surface moisture is forecast to stick around overnight. Depending on the timing of the trough, the eastern 1/3 of the CWA could see a southeastern into the morning Saturday. If this occurs, fog will likely form. If the axis sweeps through the area before sunrise, southwesterly winds will dominate and fog would be unlikely. Additionally, if the surface level moisture does remain over the eastern CWA, drizzle is possible as NAM and GFS guidance is showing some weak forcing. In this scenario, it is 2/3 likely a light glazing of ice will form over Norton and Graham counties from freezing drizzle. It's also worth noting guidance is having a difficult time with low temperatures. NBM is showing lows in low 20s while REFs is showing lows ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s. With the southerly flow and some lingering moisture/clouds, I'm leaning towards the warmer temperatures.

Boiled down, there is a ~10% chance of patchy freezing fog east of Highway 83 Saturday morning. There is also a 5-10% chance of freezing drizzle in Norton and Graham counties. Either of these would lead to a light glazing of ice, causing impacts to any travel Saturday morning.

During the day Saturday, a high will be coming in from the northwest, leading to northerly flow during the day. We expect to see a pretty sharp temperature boundary across the area. In the eastern CWA, highs will top out in the 30s, but the southwestern CWA will warm into the upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Overnight Saturday, an upper trough is forecast to push into the Eastern Plains and Ohio River Valley. As it does so, a reinforcing shot of cold air and higher surface pressure is forecast to move through. Guidance including ensembles is in better agreement of its placement, leading to the coldest temperatures along Highway 283. Lows are forecast to be in the single digits, with temperatures in the teens for the rest of the area to the west. One thing that could help temperatures stay a bit higher is guidance continues to suggest some low level moisture may linger in the area. This could lead to some fog development that persists through the night and into Sunday morning. If the fog does develop, it would be freezing fog and present a chance for some light accumulations. Freezing drizzle looks to be unlikely with the moisture confined to near the surface and no forcing forecast in the area.

For the daytime hours Sunday, any early fog and cloud cover should slowly end as drier air steadily moves in. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s for eastern portions of the area and 40s and 50s for the western half. Winds are forecast to increase during the day to about 15-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph as the high pressure shifts east with the trough and increases the pressure gradient.

For Monday through Wednesday, the upper flow is forecast to become a mix of ridging and split flow. This should allow for some above average temperatures to return with highs forecast to be in the 50's and 60s. Temperatures could climb to the 70s on Tuesday if the upper trough that is forecast to swing through Canada doesn't dip too far south. With the drier air and slightly warmer temperatures, relative humidity is forecast to drop into the teens. With some smaller waves moving through and increasing wind gusts to around 20-25 mph, there are chances for critical fire weather conditions, especially for counties along the Colorado border.

Around Wednesday/Thursday, a larger trough is forecast to move through the Plains and bring a low pressure system through the area. Ensemble guidance shows a fairly sizable spread on timing and positioning as the trough could also be far enough north to have a low impact on the area. Otherwise, Wednesday and Thursday should be a bit windier with Thursday also cooler on the backside of the system. There are some less than 10% chances for precipitation as mid-higher level moisture could move through, but the lower levels are forecast to remain dry.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 945 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail until Friday morning. This afternoon, northwesterly winds will be gusting in the 20-30 kts range. A brief 35-40 kts gust cannot be ruled out around 19-22Z for both locations. Per usual, winds will weaken around sunset.

Starting around 10-15Z Friday, ceilings will be lowering as clouds from the north move in. By 13-15Z, both locations will see cloud bases around 1,000-2,000 feet AGL, likely leading to MVFR ceilings. GLD has a higher likelihood of MVFR ceilings than KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.