textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20% chance for storms to form that may produce large hail tonight.

- Saturday-Monday, more severe weather is expected during the afternoon and evening hours. All hazards are possible, and will generally favor northern portions of the area.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1237 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

The convection threat for tonight still has low confidence for occurring. Until about 9-12Z, 500 mb vorticity from a shortwave peaks as the 310K boundary tightens up again thanks to warm, moist air advection from the southeast. The main threat will be hail with these storms, potentially around 2 inches, but likely closer to an inch. The threat window for these storms lasts until around 12Z, but once storms start they only look to remain in the CWA for about 3-5 hours. If they do form, they could diminish the severe weather potential later Saturday afternoon.

Saturday is still the main focus for severe weather. Temperatures ahead of any convection are forecast to warm into the mid 80s in eastern Colorado and low to mid 90s in the eastern CWA. With the additional moisture advection, RH values are forecast to remain in the 20s across most of the CWA, minimizing any critical fire weather conditions as winds from the south east gust in the 20-30 kts range. However, east central Colorado may not receive this moisture advection and see RH values drop into the mid teens. This could lead to briefly critical fire weather concerns near Kit Carson, CO.

The main convection looks to fire in eastern Colorado from a 500 mb shortwave trough, which is presenting more as a vorticity axis. Storms look to move into our area or initiate around 20-22Z and move to the northeast. These storms look to peak around 22-4Z in the CWA, before exiting by 6Z. Hodographs are largely straight-lined in the mid-levels, increasing the potential in splitting supercells.

All hazards are possible with these storms. The hail threat will generally be in the 1.25-2.5. This would be the size most severe storms would produce, especially from any left moving cells. Isolated supercells would have a chance of producing hail up to 4 inches. Winds look to be in the 60-75 MPH range, however there is a risk of a QLCS or a cluster of storms to produce winds up 85 MPH. This poses a massive threat of blowing dust, likely a convectively driven haboob leading to brownout conditions. There is also a relatively high risk of tornadoes. Tornadoes that come from QLCS storm modes would likely be short lived. Once again, any isolated strong supercell introduces the risk for a long-lived, strong tornado.

There are some signs of another wave of storms behind the first wave, primarily impacting the northwestern CWA 2-6Z, if they do form. Hazards from these storms would be less intense than the first wave. This means hail up to around 2 inches and winds in the 60 MPH range.

It's also worth noting the HREF is showing QPF in the 1-2 inch range for locations that get hit with repeated waves of storms, mainly along and north of U.S. 36. This presents a very low threat for flash flooding if this rain falls extremely quickly. However, the REFS is not showing this much QPF, closer to half this amount on the high end. While we do have PWATs in the 1 inch range, the speed and instability of the storms makes the flooding threat low, in addition to the dry conditions across the area.

As mentioned above, there is potential that storms Friday night into Saturday morning modify the environment and cause the Saturday storms to be weaker than currently forecast.

Once the storms exit, temperatures look to cool into the upper 40s in the northwestern CWA and low 60s in the eastern CWA, where additional return flow is expected.

Sunday is looking at another severe weather outbreak. Before that, temperatures will warm into the 80s in the western CWA and near 100 in the eastern CWA. The southeastern CWA is also looking at briefly critical fire weather conditions, mainly southeast of Hill City to Tribune. RH values will drop to around 14% while winds from the southwest gust in the 15-30 kts range. The stronger winds and drier air are expected to remain just outside of the CWA Sunday afternoon. However, locations that do see the gusts around 30 kts may also see some isolated plumes of blowing dust.

The severe threat for Sunday is split into two main zones of concern. The western concern looks to fire off of a warm front slowing pushing north. The start time looks to be around 20-22Z, south of I-70 and west of U.S. 83. Once storms form, they will tap into the mid level winds and rocket to the north-northeast. Hazards are fairly similar to Saturday's, although slightly weaker. Hail is still the main threat, with maximum reasonable hail size being up to 3 inches with 1-2 inches being more common. Winds will largely be in the 50-70 MPH range, but 80 MPH gusts are possible. The dust threat remains a major hazard, but this threat could lessen depending on how much precipitation falls on Saturday. For locations that receive less than 0.25" of rain Saturday will have a risk of brownout conditions from a wall of dust. The threat for tornadoes is lower as low-level shear is much weaker, but low-level instability is primed for tornadogenesis.

The eastern concern will be east of U.S. 83 and may start closer to the 21-00Z time frame. These storms would fire off a surface triple point, assisted by the incoming 500 mb trough. The extent of coverage and initiation zone of these storms is very dependent on how far west the dryline sets-up. The dryline may push farther west into the area, or may move east and remain out of the CWA. The westward movement would expose more of the CWA to these storms while the eastward movement would minimize the threat. As far as hazards go, they are very similar to the western storms, but the threat for long duration, strong tornadoes increases.

The storms may come in two waves. The first would be in the 20-00Z time frame with the second wave in the 02-06Z time frame. Peak timing for the severe threats look to be between 22-04Z, with the severe threat ending by 06Z and lingering showers and storms lasting a few hours beyond that. Overnight temperatures look to cool to near 40 in the western CWA and remain in the mid 50s in the eastern CWA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 247 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Severe weather chances continue for Monday as the eastern county warning area (CWA) is outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for a Day 4 15% chance of severe weather. Our region is forecast to be under a negatively tilted upper-level trough. There is also a surface low in place with a north-south oriented dryline extending from the low to the Texas-Mexico border. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensembles all still disagree on where this low will set up. Some ensembles have the low in southwestern Kansas while others have it in central Kansas. Where the low ultimately sets up will determine our weather for Monday. A southwest Kansas low will favor more widespread severe weather coverage across the CWA while a more central Kansas low will push the dryline further east increasing fire weather potential.

Currently, the NBM is leaning more towards a southwest Kansas low with chances of showers and thunderstorms for the northwest CWA. A cold front is forecast to pass through the region Monday morning. Blowing dust will be a concern ahead of the cold front with gusts around 50 mph possible. Storms will likely develop ahead of the boundary as they enter an environment with ample moisture, strong instability and shear. Thunderstorms and supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 40-90% for the northwest CWA.

Critical fire weather conditions will also be a concern Monday afternoon. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the high teens for the southern CWA with gusts up to 60 mph possible. With the region outlooked for severe weather, there is concern for lightning ahead of storms as an ignition source. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are forecast in the 80-100s for the southern CWA. If any fires start, they will likely grow and spread out of control rapidly. If the surface low ends up setting up in central Kansas, fire weather conditions could end up more widespread across the CWA.

Tuesday is cooler in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s. Main highlight for Tuesday is a 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the western CWA. The remainder of the long term is fairly consistent as we enter more of a upper-level ridge patter. For Wednesday through Friday, expect high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s with gusty winds up to 30 mph for our Colorado counties in the afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for KGLD and KMCK through the period, as long as there is not nearby convection. Tonight, we are seeing weak signs that convection may briefly impact the airports, but the bigger threat is Saturday afternoon. All hazards from these storms are possible, including blowing dust. These storms will be clear of KGLD by the end of the period and exiting / weakening at KMCK by the same time.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.