textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of systems move through the region late this week and may bring precipitation. Moderate confidence on timing, but low confidence on accumulations at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 510 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

The Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. As of 5 pm MST, winds across the warning area have decreased to about 10 mph. Relative humidity readings have already increased to 15 to 20 percent, and will further rise after sunset.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1248 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

A weak 500 mb ridge is building in across the southern CONUS and into the CWA. This will allow some weak shortwave troughs to ride the ridge and move on the northern side of the CWA. is exiting the region to the east and fairly zonal flow is expected to move in tonight and largely remain until Tuesday morning. A pretty similar setup is expected down at 850 mb.

Today, during the morning hours, an 850 mb high over the Gulf will funnel warm, southwesterly air into the CWA. In the afternoon, a low coming out of the northern Rockies will drape a loose gradient cold front across the CWA. This will help pull in more warm air ahead of the front and lead to some light pre- frontal warming under mostly clear skies. Depending on how much prefrontal warming occurs and how long the cloud cover remains, temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s. This could set some record highs, which are shown in the climate section below. There is a 40% chance the clouds this morning will keep us around 70-75.

These warm temperatures and dry air will cause RH values to drop into the mid teens across the area. Winds are gusting around 25 kts across the southwestern CWA, leading to critical fire weather conditions that are expected to persist for the next several hours. We are expecting a cold front this evening and overnight, which will cause winds to gradually become north- northwest, making any fires that do occur be more unpredictable. Stronger winds behind the front are forecast to gust up to 25-40 MPH, which may cause fires to flare back up.

The stronger winds tonight will usher in some cooler air, but the stronger winds will keep the surface well mixed and temperatures will only cool into the mid 20s to low 30s. This will also keep RH values lower for the foreseeable future. Around 12Z Tomorrow morning, Yuma county could see some light snow, thanks to some 500 mb vorticity. No accumulations are expected.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the cooler temperatures will certainly be felt. Highs and lows are forecast to be around 50 and upper 20s, respectively. These cooler temperatures will eliminate any critical fire weather potential as RH values will remain above 30%. There is a ~5% chance of some light precipitation Tuesday night, but no accumulation is expected.

Wednesday, temperatures start rebounding as the 500 mb ridge gets stronger and an 850 mb high becomes more organized over the mid- Mississippi River Valley. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 50s. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer than the previous night, in the upper 20s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

Thursday morning, our next system will slowly start impacting us. The parent 500 mb low pressure system will be off the west coast of Baja California with a northeastward extending trough axis. This axis will be what causes any precipitation before Friday midday. GFS, CMC-NH, and ECMWF have all come into a lot more agreement, and show the track of the 500 mb low to be over Oklahoma between Saturday 12Z-Sunday 6Z.

Looking at 850 mb and 290K surfaces, there is very limited moisture before Thursday afternoon. This has pushed PoPs off until 0Z Friday, however not a lot of moisture is expected to move in between 0-12Z Friday. That being said, northeastern Colorado could see some light precipitation early Friday morning. The bulk of the precipitation, if it occurs, will be 18Z Friday through 18Z Saturday.

The 300K surface looks to be the best way to view the various paths this system could take. The GFS has the low over Texas, the south route, which would basically give us no precipitation, save for some sprinkles or flurries Friday morning. The ECMWF takes the low over southern Oklahoma, but thanks to a stronger 500 mb ridge, a weak high will trail the low to the northwest by about 300 miles. This prevents much return flow from pushing north, limiting the QPF we get, but still ensuring we get some light precipitation. The CMC-NH shows the aggressive output. It's similar to the ECMWF, but with no trailing high, allowing the moisture advection to make it up into Nebraska. This could give us the highest amount of precipitation from the deterministic models.

Looking at GEFS members, about half of the members show a QPF that's consistent with the ECMWF solution. The rest of the member are fairly evenly split between little/no QPF or 1+ inch of QPF. This lends confidence to the ECMWF's guidance of QPF, but doesn't answer the question about what the P-type will be. As a side note, there are still hints of some instability Friday, but CAPE would not be available if we don't have any of the moisture advecting into our area.

Less than 1/4 of the GEFS members are suggesting snow will be the dominant P-type. Looking at LREF soundings, the overwhelming majority show dew points above freezing at the surface. This gives pretty high confidence that the bulk of the precipitation will fall as rain, but some snow may mix in the early morning hours. It is worth noting that if the snowy solutions pan out, we could expect 3+ inches of wet, heavy snow. Overnight temperatures each morning are expected to drop to right around freezing. This could lead to some black ice Saturday/Sunday mornings.

Precipitation will be exiting the region Saturday afternoon/evening. Sunday evening looks to be the coolest day in the forecast, likely dropping into the mid 20s. No precipitation is expected Sunday or Monday. Highs will remain in the 50s and 60s through the long-term, except for Friday, where 40s should be expected. The NBM/NDFD is not accounting for the precipitation keeping temperatures cooler, so take 5-10 degrees off of that output.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 445 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals, with cloud cover confined to occasional wisps of cirrus above ~20,000 ft AGL. Northerly winds at 8-13 knots will increase to 15-25 knots this evening (~03Z Tue) and remain breezy overnight as surface high pressure builds southward into the region.. breeziest between ~04-09Z, when rapid surface pressure rises may support occasional gusts as high as 30-35 knots. N winds will decrease to ~10-15 knots by sunrise (~12-14Z Tue) and persist through early afternoon. Winds will veer to the NE-ENE and decrease to 5-10 knots during the late afternoon, by the end of the 00Z TAF period, as surface high pressure settles over the Central Plains.

CLIMATE

Issued at 445 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

At 141 PM MST on Mon Feb 09, the temperature in Goodland, KS was 78F. This ties the record high for the date, set in 1976.

At 1234 PM MST on Mon Feb 09, the temperature in Burlington, CO was 77F. This breaks the record high (for the date) of 75F, last set in 2017.

FEBRUARY 09 RECORDS ================================================== Location Record (Year) ================================================== Goodland, KS..........78 (1976) Hill City, KS.........81 (1996) Burlington, CO........75 (2017*) McCook, NE............76 (1954)

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.