textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot with mid to upper 90s on Sunday and lower 100s on Monday.

- Storm chances Monday afternoon and evening, then again Tuesday night.

- Cooler on Tuesday with highs mainly in the 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1212 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Current observations have the upper ridge over much of the Rockies and Northern Plains tilting further east. Meanwhile, a broad area of High pressure is in place over the Plains. This should keep the skies clear in the area and winds around 5 to 10 mph. With dewpoints now in the upper 40s and 50s, temperatures should drop to around 60.

For the daytime hours, the upper ridge is forecast to continue to tilt and slightly move east. This should warm the area up a bit, especially with low pressure deepening in the Front Range and Northern Plains that will allow for southerly flow at the surface. Temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s, with maybe a few 100s also possible. The good news is that dewpoints are forecast to remain around 50, keeping heat index values well into the 90s. With the deepening low west and north of the area, wind speeds should pick up a bit to around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30- 35 mph. Briefly critical fire weather conditions may occur in Eastern Colorado if temperatures do warm to near 100, but nothing that warrants a Red Flag is forecast at this time. No precipitation is expected today with the upper level subsidence and relatively dry air.

Monday, the upper ridge is forecast to deamplify a bit, but have its axis swing over the area. With this and the continued southerly low level flow, temperatures are expected to be warmer in the low to mid 100s. The saving grace from a heat perspective is that dewpoints are forecast to mainly be in the low to mid 50s again. This should keep heat index values right around 100, but we'll need to watch and see how much moisture gets brought in with the surface southerly flow. Winds through most of the day should again be around 10-20 mph from the south with gusts to 30-35 mph, though northwestern parts of the area might lower in the afternoon if the low/front push through during that time. With the warmer temperatures, critical fire weather conditions are a bit more likely compared to Sunday. Still, most scenarios have relative humidity right at or above 15%. Have opted to not issue anything now, but will watch closely to see if a Red Flag Warning will be needed.

An upper level trough is forecast to push the surface low/front through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms will be possible later in the day as the low pushes in. For now, guidance really favors precipitation developing off the higher terrain around the Front Range/Palmer Divide on the backside of the low. Guidance does vary quite a bit though on how tight the low will be and how fast it moves in. If the low tightens, storms may spark over the area instead of just to the west. As for the speed, there is enough of a range to suggest as early as 1-3pm MT, and as late as near sunset. For now, going with a start time in Eastern Colorado around 4-6pm MT with the rest of the area during the evening if it holds together. Even with the low and slight increase in moisture, we may still be too dry and have too little instability. This does favor though a wind gust and blowing dust threat with the dying showers/storms. Gusts up to 70 mph seem reasonable for now, and blowing dust could lower visibility to a quarter of a mile. Still, there's not much to suggest anything widespread and more like an isolated instance or two. Then as long as the low doesn't pull in additional moisture, precipitation should end before midnight or maybe even a few hours sooner.

Tuesday, most of the Plains is forecast to be under troughing/zonal flow with the upper ridge more confined to the West Coast. Between this and the front that pushed through, temperatures are forecast to be quite a bit cooler in the 80s and 90s. Winds across most of the are forecast to have shift to out of the north/northeast at speeds of 10-20 mph. With the cooler temperatures, both the fire and heat risk are expected to be negligible. The thing to keep an eye on is if the surface low/front can retrograde into the area or stall out in the southern portion of the area. If so, we will have a prime trigger for storm development, especially with a low amplitude reinforcing upper trough swinging through late in the day. For now, most shower and storms activity seems like it will be south of the area. This again would change if the system shifts north. There is also the chance that some late in the evening storms may spark ahead of the upper trough around the Nebraska border. In most cases, the chances for storms and severe weather seem rather low at this point. But we'll see how the low/front actually progress through and what is left to work with.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Synoptically, the long term setup remains largely unchanged. The upper level flow will continue to be mainly zonal. As we move into the weekend, Guidance is suggesting the ridge of the western US will begin to re-amplify and propogate to the east. This will begin to transition the flow to be from the northwest. During this period there will be a few shortwaves that will move through the region creating some precipitation chances.

Wednesday's high temperatures look to be the "coolest" of the period, with highs in the 80s to low 90s. A warming trend will begin on Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. By Friday and Saturday, the majority of the CWA will see highs in the upper 90s. Also, some locations could see localized highs reaching triple digits. Winds look to remain calm to breezy throughout mid week to the weekend. Relative humidity values are forecast to mainly stay above 20% except for Friday were eastern Colorado could see values in the high teens to low 20s. Moving to precipitation, there is a 10-20% chance of showers/storms each afternoon and evening as shortwaves move through the CWA.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period with generally clear skies. Winds should remain roughly from the south/southeast at 10 kts through the night, then strengthen to 15-20 kts by 18Z. Gusts of 25-30 kts are possible. Winds may then slightly lower by sunset, but a potential low level jet could cause low level wind shear at the end of the period (close to 06Z Monday).

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.