textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front moves through early Friday morning will drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well.

- Eastern Colorado has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for Friday night into Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch remains for northwest Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska. Temperatures dropping into the low 20s may damage vegetation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This morning, a cold front is entering from the northwest. This is the accompanying feature of the incoming mid level trough. Winds will rapidly shift, becoming north-northwesterly, and gusting around 30-40 kts, with pockets up to 50 kts being possible. This is hazardous for any smoldering fires as they could flare back up and could make east/west travel in high profile vehicles difficult. There is a low chance of blowing dust as this front comes in, but potential for less than 1 mile in blowing dust is only around 2%. Winds will weaken around sunset, and largely be under 20 kts by 6Z.

By 12-14Z, the front will have cleared the CWA, but winds gusting around 30 kts will be common all day. This has a 10% chance of causing localized plumes of blowing dust in the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be stunted, topping out in the 40s to upper 50s. Combined with a 10F increase in dew points behind the front, RH values will remain above 25%, eliminating any critical fire weather concerns. In fact, there will be an increase chance of precipitation throughout the day.

Precipitation will primarily be focused in the far northwestern CWA and start off as rain. As the day progresses and more CAA moves in, snow will mix in. Throughout the day, the precipitation will largely remain along and west of KS 27, but by sunset most of the area could see some very light precipitation. Additionally, areas west of U.S. 385 will only be seeing snow after sunset as the precipitation tapers off. By 3-6Z, all precipitation should have ceased.

QPF is expected to be light, under 0.1" but this could lead to some slick spots on elevated surfaces in eastern Colorado Friday evening/night. Additionally, Friday night into Saturday morning, temperatures will drop into the 20s across the CWA. These temperatures have prompted the issuance of a Freeze Warning for eastern Colorado and a Freeze Watch for rest of the area. Current confidence in temperatures below 30 degrees across the entire Tri- State area is around 75-80%. While the growing season as defined by climatological normals would usually not start until late April in eastern areas and early May in western areas, the unusually warm March and early April has resulted in green-up across the entire area much earlier than those dates. As a result, the growing season for practical purposes has begun and frost and freeze products will be issued for the remainder of the season as needed.

Saturday, an 850 mb Colorado high will funnel in northwesterly air into the region, keeping temperatures seasonal, around 60 for highs. Unfortunately, RH values will be dropping into the low to mid teens again as northwesterly winds gust around 20-30 kts. This returns the threat for critical fire weather concerns, mainly in eastern Colorado.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Upper-level ridging looks to be moving into the forecast region by Sunday morning. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance is consistent with upper-level ridging extending through at least Tuesday afternoon, and potentially into the overnight hours. Warm conditions are favored from this pattern, with forecast temperatures in the 70s and lower-80s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. GEFS guidance also provides high confidence in an 850-mb high pressure system across the Southern Plains Sunday, which would enhance southwesterly surface flow across the CWA. Relative humidities (RH) may be very low Sunday, with the forecast showing values in the single-digits nearly everywhere, and possibly in the mid single- digits in portions of Eastern Colorado. Dry conditions continue to look favorable into Monday and Tuesday, though slow eastward progression of the 850-mb high may help moisture creep back into the forecast region. Forecast RH values Monday and Tuesday are in the upper single-digits to low-teens, and low to mid-teens respectively. Critical fire weather conditions may be in play all three days, though forecast wind gusts are either too low or barely meeting criteria in most locations. NBM guidance is currently showing the best opportunities for higher wind gusts on Monday, with a 50-60% chance that gusts meet criteria for critical fire weather across portions of Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas. However, a reasonable maximum for wind gusts in the NBM 90th percentile shows gusts in the 30s across this zone, which would lead to higher potential for the hazard. Still, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed any of these three days is currently in the 5-10% range.

By Wednesday morning, an upper-level trough looks to be moving into or established over the West Coast. Significant timing issues exist regarding this feature's eastward progression, as GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance shows a large amount of spread on either side of the feature. However, similar guidance provides higher confidence that the slow eastward-moving high at 850-mb will be across the Southeastern United States by Wednesday morning, and potentially moving off the southeast coast. As such, air with higher moisture content may begin to make its way into the forecast region Wednesday, with forecast guidance showing a dryline across the Kansas 27 and Kansas 25 Corridors during the afternoon. Dewpoints may reach into the 40s and lower-50s on the moist side of the boundary, which could support thunderstorm potential. However, RH values on the dry side of the boundary are forecast once again in the low to mid-teens, which could support further critical fire weather conditions. This setup for a mixed mode of thunderstorms and fire weather may last into Thursday, depending on how quickly the 500-mb trough from the west moves eastward. A slower progression would provide the best potential for a multi-day severe event, whereas the faster progression may confine severe potential to Wednesday. For Thursday, around 30% of EC, and 10% of GEFS members show a scenario where the surface low has progressed too far east for severe weather to be a major concern, which would correspond to the 500-mb trough having a faster progression. Still, NBM guidance suggests around a 20% chance for precipitation Wednesday afternoon and evening for areas north of I-70, and a 20-25% chance Thursday across most of the CWA. Forecast details regarding the timing, duration, and significance of severe/fire potential will need to be refined as we approach the event.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1058 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected at both KGLD and KMCK behind a strong cold front overnight. There is only a 10-15% chance IFR conditions will set in, but ceilings will start lifting in the late morning. Current impact timing of the cold front for KMCK look to be between 9-10Z and 945-12Z for KGLD. Updated timings in the TAFs may occur later in the night. Winds with the front will be gusting around 30-35 kts, then largely remain in the 25-35 kts range until sunset. For KGLD there is also a 20-30% chance of light precipitation around sunset Friday. Impacts are not expected at this point. After sunset, winds will gradually weaken to the 10-20 kts range from the northwest. Temperatures below freezing are expected tomorrow night, increasing the icing risk with any lingering clouds or moisture.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081.