textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area this afternoon, mainly west of Hwy 83 and south of I-70 where warm temperatures, low humidity and breezy southwest winds may lead to rapid wildfire growth.

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for far southern portions of the area on Monday. Recent guidance/trends suggest that critical fire weather potential on Monday may be similar to today (i.e. a northward expansion of the watch may be needed).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Shortwave trough axis will be traversing the area on Wednesday with widely scattered light rain showers in the wraparound. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures behind the associated cold front, northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph and afternoon relative humidity in the teens will combine for another possible day of critical fire weather. Main concern would be western and especially southwestern areas where humidity will be lowest (Colorado/Kansas border area). On Thursday will be between systems with a southwest flow aloft. Models not showing any embedded waves at this time so should be dry. The downsloping winds will dry out the low levels and humidity is forecast to drop to near 10% in the entire area. There is also a modest increase in wind speeds with gusts of 25-35 mph, highest south of Interstate 70. So, critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible. Next upper trough will be approaching the Rockies Thursday night and emerge onto the adjacent plains on Friday. Associated surface cold front will be traversing the forecast area at that time. Currently looks to be a dry front with the lead dry line sweeping the deeper moisture and precipitation well east of the area. Ahead of the front critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible. Operational models show the front bisecting the area at 18z lying roughly along Interstate 70, continuing south through the afternoon. North winds will be gusting 35-45 mph behind the front. Wraparound precipitation, in the form of snow, will develop in northeast Colorado Friday afternoon and then move into the area Friday night, but weakening as the upper support moves out. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensembles show accumulations of less than one inch. Any snow will be accompanied by gusty north winds of 25-35 mph. May see some lingering light rain/snow showers into Saturday, but not expecting anything significant and would not be surprised if it was dry. North winds continue to be gusty at 35-45 mph, but relative humidity is forecast to stay above 20% so may get a respite from the fire weather. Unfortunately that may not be the case for Sunday with gusty south winds, milder temperatures and lower humidity.

Temperature trends for the period will start above normal on Wednesday (70s), then much above normal on Thursday (80s), near normal on Friday north of the front (50s and 60s) but above normal ahead of it (70s and 80s), below normal on Saturday (50s), and slightly above normal on Sunday (60s). Freezing temperatures will be possible both Saturday and Sunday mornings with lows in the 20s, otherwise lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1053 AM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Winds are forecast to increase gradually this afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots at GLD. Gusts may be a little more sporadic at MCK due to the proximity of a low, want to see how the low develops before putting into the MCK TAF to ensure that the gusts up to 20kts do occur. Oscillating wind directions between west and southwest are forecast through the end of the period. There may be some LLWS at each terminal overnight but confidence is not high enough to put into the TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Fire weather is unfortunately forecast to continue for the majority of the upcoming week. The main focus of this discussion is for focusing on Monday and Tuesday.

The strongest winds for Monday are currently favored across Wichita, southeast Logan and into Gove county where wind gusts around 40 mph are forecast to occur. If a trough doesn't push through enough then the strongest winds may expand a bit further to the north and the fire weather products may need to be expanded a little further northwest. Confidence was high enough to go ahead and issue a Red Flag Warning for Greeley, Wichita, Logan and Gove counties based on a strong signal for wind gusts over 25 mph to occur for the duration of the afternoon. There was some contemplation for Cheyenne county Colorado to be placed in a fire weather product as well but the source of the winds for Cheyenne county look to be more diurnally mixed based than the synoptically forced due tot he surface trough like the Kansas counties. The mixing winds for Cheyenne county also did appear to be a little more marginal based on forecast soundings which further lowered confidence in occurrence and if the 3 hours needed for a Red Flag Warning could be met.

For Tuesday, There was strong consideration for the issuance of another Fire Weather Watch for at least Greeley and Wichita counties for Tuesday. There does still remain discrepancies with where the low pressure system will set up which will dictate if and when and where fire weather concerns will occur. If the low sets up further to the north then fire weather may be a bit more widespread, longer lived and even potentially more impactful as winds could be stronger possibly around 50 mph. If the low sets up further to the south which is where my confidence is currently favoring then winds across southern areas would be more light and variable plus there could be a better potential for showers and storms across the north. Fire starts from lightning may also become a concern as well if the storms do occur.

Fire weather concerns do appear to continue through the remainder of the work week with Thursday potentially being another widespread and prolonged fire weather event with humidity already forecast in the upper single digits to low teens for humidity and winds forecast around 30 mph.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013-014-027-028-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for KSZ004-015-016. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ028-029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None.