textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A daily potential for late afternoon and evening storms, potentially severe, may continue through the rest of the work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 958 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to end as the threat for severe weather has diminished. Showers and storms are forecast to continue through most if not all of the night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 440 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

No significant change from prior forecast expectations, as outlined in the DSS Packet issued shortly before Noon MDT.

Through Tonight: Convective outflow/overturning yesterday evening-night has modified the hot, stifling airmass in place over the region the past several days, bringing temperatures down to near-average for this time of year. Rich low-level moisture, characterized by surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70's and 850 mb dewpoints 16-19C, persists. Widespread morning stratus delayed diurnal heating/destabilization over the Goodland county warning area, and, as of 21Z, some degree of convective inhibition persists across the majority of the area. South and east of Goodland, in Logan/Gove counties, where temperatures are in the mid 90' and surface dewpoints are in the mid 60's, diurnal cumulus is notably absent. SPC mesoanalysis data indicates 850 mb dewpoints ~11 to 14C in that area, suggesting that shallow moisture may be the culprit. Alternately or additionally, subsidence on the rear/northwest side of the departing MCV could be suppressing diurnal cumulus. Other than weak low-level convergence in southeast CO, there appears to be very little in the way of forcing over the Tri-State Area. With this in mind, in-situ convective development is not expected. Precipitation chances are entirely dependent upon upstream convection, i.e. ongoing thunderstorms on the higher terrain of the Palmer Divide/Cheyenne Ridge propagating into the Goodland CWA, where rich low-level moisture, strong instability (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 25-30 knots of effective deep layer shear are quite capable of maintaining organized convection. Right-mover motion this evening is from the N (340-020 @ 5-10 knots). Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR suggest that ongoing convection will largely be confined to eastern CO, and that convective development east of the CO-KS border will largely be contingent upon linear organization and cold-pool consolidation.

Wed-Wed night: Little if any change in the synoptic pattern. Late evening and early morning convection will, once again, modify environmental conditions over the region, lending considerable uncertainty to the precipitation forecast. Broadly speaking, expect that late afternoon storms will develop along portions of the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide.. and that activity will tend to propagate toward the S or SE, i.e. eastern CO stands the best chance to see precipitation.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

***Thursday***

GEFS and EC 500-mb height ensembles still show a broad high/ridge across much of the United States Thursday morning. At the same time, a shortwave trough traveling around the ridge anticyclonically is forecast to be overhead. A surface low at the leading edge of the shortwave will allow a cold front to traverse the Great Plains throughout the day. Showers and thunderstorms are possible at the leading edge of the cold front, though are currently not expected to be severe. LREF guidance suggests only a 25% chance or less that sfc-500mb wind shear will exceed 30 kts, with the highest chances in Southwest Nebraska and along US-283 in Kansas. GFS and EC model soundings support this solution, showing less than 30 kts of 0-6 km wind shear in this zone. However, latest GFS and NAMNST model soundings do show an inverted-V up to about 3 km, which may indicate microburst potential with storms. Confidence in storm coverage is low at this time, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests only up to a 1 in 3 chance to receive greater than 0.1 inches of rain across the forecast area. Confidence in severe weather occurring is around 5% Thursday.

***Friday/Saturday***

Thursday's cold front looks to begin eroding the strong ridge across the Great Plains, moving the ridge axis westward over the Four- Corners Region by Friday morning. Flow at 500-mb over the forecast region is favored to be northwesterly to northerly through Saturday. As such, highs are forecast to slightly drop into the low to mid 90s Friday, and upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday. A surface high in association with the ridge looks to be to the north of the forecast area, and may establish southerly winds across Eastern Colorado Friday evening, with easterly flow across Western Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. As such, showers may develop across Eastern Colorado Friday. Again, coverage is uncertain at this time, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests less than a 25% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across most of this zone. However, strengthening of the shortwave trough to the east may support the development of a 500-mb jet streak over the region. This is reflected in LREF sfc-500mb wind shear guidance, which shows a 40-60% chance of wind shear greater than 30 kts across Eastern Colorado. If thunderstorms are able to take advantage of this, they may be allowed to become severe. Even so, confidence in severe weather Friday evening is about 5% due to uncertainty in the coverage.

***Sunday-Tuesday***

The ridge axis is favored to be overhead once again Sunday as a strong 500-mb trough traversing Southern Canada and the Northern United States pushes it east. Conditions would warm up again into the mid and upper 90s Sunday, and upper 90s to lower 100s Monday. However, conditions look to be drier. GEFS 850-mb guidance shows a weak low in the U.S. Southeast. This would create northerly flow across the Texas coasts and prevent moisture from returning to the forecast region. Relative humidities (RH) may drop into the lower 20s to upper teens during this period. While this does not meet critical fire weather criteria (RH<15%), NBM guidance shows a broad region across Eastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska with a 50% chance or higher of experiencing wind gusts over 30 mph both Sunday and Monday. Considering that fuels are drier across this region, the potential development of critical fire weather conditions may be something to keep an eye on going into the weekend. Additionally, a surface low associated with a trough to the north may produce a few showers along a cold front Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 440 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

GLD: Light easterly or variable winds and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of the TAF period. Storms are possible late this afternoon and evening, between ~02-06Z. Confidence in thunderstorm development and coverage decreases east of the CO-KS border, enough-so that explicit mention of thunder will remain confined to a PROB30 group with the 00Z TAF issuance. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of any showers/storms (including decaying convection or convective remnants). With light winds and a very moist airmass over the region, sub-VFR ceilings and/or visibilities with fog are possible during the early morning hours (~08-14Z Wed). Very low confidence in fog/stratus development.

MCK: Light easterly or variable winds and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of the TAF period. Storms cannot be ruled-out this evening. Confidence in thunderstorm development/coverage decreases considerably east of the CO-KS border, enough-so that thunder is not explicitly mentioned with the 00Z TAF issuance. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of any showers/storms (including decaying convection or convective remnants). With light winds and a very moist airmass over the region, sub-VFR ceilings and/or visibilities with fog are possible during the early morning hours (~08-14Z Wed). Very low confidence in fog/stratus development.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.