textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Southerly winds decrease throughout tonight into tomorrow.

- A widespread medium to likely (50-90%) chance of rain is expected late tonight into tomorrow night, likely resulting in near 0.5-2.0 inches of rain.

- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) includes a Marginal and Sight Risk (levels 1/4 and 2/4) of localized flash flooding from periods of heavy rain through tonight, with Marginal Risks continuing tomorrow through Friday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 257 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Unsettled weather is expected for most of the short-term forecast, or through Friday night, as a mid-level shortwave trough and associated surface low bring the first rounds of showers and thunderstorms this evening through Thursday night followed by a second round Friday night as a mid/upper level trough passes over the region, all of which are embedded within the northwestern periphery of a 591-594 dam high pressure aloft over eastern Texas. In regards to the ongoing breezy conditions, as the shortwave emerges over the Southern Plains, the pressure gradient should gradually loosen, steadily weakening southerly winds throughout tonight down to near 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph by tomorrow morning and further reducing to light and/or variable tomorrow night.

Precipitation-wise, despite some short term high resolution model discrepancies, the overall expectation is for two main rounds of near-widespread medium to likely (50-90% +) chances of showers and thunderstorms, with periods of heavy rain: an initial slug of moisture tonight into tomorrow morning followed by another round as showers and thunderstorms re-develop late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night in association with the attendant surface low moving northeastward into northwest Kansas. The more supportive upper level divergence and higher- end rain chances look to remain along-south I-70 and along/east US-83, where rainfall amounts could total 1.0-2.0 inches by Friday morning while areas further west can expect 0.3-1.0 inch, lowest across the western portions of the bordering Colorado counties. Some locations could receive higher amounts across the region from repeated rounds of heavy rain and/or where convection trains; the HREF suggests a 20-50% probability of totals exceeding these amounts in some areas and the NBM suggests even higher probabilities. Following, chances of rain briefly minimize Friday morning but then increase throughout Friday afternoon to widespread chances again Friday night, as high as a medium to likely (50-70%) chance along/east US-83, before ceasing by Saturday morning.

Due to the medium to high probability for periods of heavy rain from anomalously high moisture content, peaking near 1.3-1.6+ in. tomorrow morning and again later in the day on Friday, WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of localized flash flooding across most of the region today through tomorrow night as well as along/east of US-83 on Friday. Additionally, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of isolated flash flooding is highlighted across the southern and southwestern extreme portions of Greeley and Wichita counties, respectively, where the chances of deeper convection and repeated or longer periods of heavy rain are higher. Thunderstorms are expected to remain beneath severe limits, though a bit of modest shear (20-30 knots) further south could also produce some gustier winds and more frequent lightning within the deepest of convection, though this potential could expand further north.

Otherwise, increasing cloud clover drops high temperatures from the mid/upper 70s today to the upper 60s/low 70s tomorrow and back to the mid/upper 70s on Friday as some sunshine returns. Overcast skies maintain overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s and low 60s, warmer further east.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 257 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Saturday morning, a weak 500-mb trough looks to be over the forecast region. Surface winds out of the northwest are possible with a weak cold front across Eastern Colorado. However, high temperatures are forecast to rise into the 80s across the forecast area despite the troughing overhead and weak cold front. This would likely be due to weaker surface winds alongside clearing of cloudcover, which would allow solar heating to dominate as the primary heating mechanism for the day. This solution is supported by LREF guidance, which shows a 60% chance or higher for less than 10% cloudcover along and west of U.S. Highway 83. In addition, NBM guidance suggests a 50% chance or greater that surface winds will remain below 10 mph across most of the forecast region. Even NBM 25th percentile high temperatures are in the 80s across the CWA (County Warning Area) except along U.S. Highway 283 where lingering cloudcover may keep highs in the upper 70s. It should be noted that forecast guidance indicates relative humidities dropping into the teens across portions of Eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon, which could indicate some potential for critical fire weather conditions. However, NBM guidance suggests a 1 in 3 chance or less that wind gusts will exceed 25 mph across most of this area, which leaves confidence in fire weather conditions occurring less than 5%.

Ridging looks to build into the forecast area Sunday, with ensemble guidance suggesting that this will transition into more southwesterly upper-level flow by Monday morning. Conditions continue to be forecast in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the forecast region. Precipitation remains unlikely at least through the morning hours on Monday, as NBM precipitation guidance remains below a 10% probability for all areas that greater than 0.1 inches of rain will occur.

Troughing is forecast to begin moving overhead sometime Monday afternoon or evening. A surface low at the leading edge of this trough would be expected to deepen with the aid of sufficient upper- level divergence and lee cyclogenesis across the Central and North- Central Plains. A cold front appears likely as the surface low passes through the forecast area sometime between the afternoon and night hours Monday. Chances for precipitation increase dramatically along the frontal boundary, as NBM guidance shows that most areas have at least a 40% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain with this activity through 6 am Tuesday. Areas north and east of a line from Trenton, NE to Hill City, KS have as high as a 75% chance for the same. Some of this activity may be associated with thunderstorms, particularly along and east of U.S. Highway 83 where LREF guidance shows between a 1 in 2 and 1 in 3 chance that surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) will be above 1000 J/kg. The same guidance suggests between a 40 and 50% chance that sfc- 500mb wind shear will exceed 30 knots, which could allow some thunderstorms to become severe if they develop. High winds would be the biggest concern with these storms, as GFS and EC model soundings suggest the vertical wind shear would be along the cold front. Additionally, CAPE and wind shear seem like they would be a bit low for large hail and tornadoes to occur with storms. As such, a reasonable forecast would be widespread showers and thunderstorms along the cold front, with perhaps a storm or two having a chance to produce severe wind. Confidence in severe weather occurring Monday night and into Tuesday is around 5%.

Forecast guidance becomes a lot more uncertain by Tuesday morning. Ensemble guidance is in support of troughing remaining overhead into the evening hours, but becoming less certain on how quickly the upper trough will move out of the forecast area. LREF guidance doesn't seem to favor the trough moving out of the area until Wednesday morning, when about 55-60% of the members show 500-mb heights above 576 dam (5760 meters). However, even by Wednesday afternoon, 30% of the members still show the trough in the area. Cooler temperatures seem likely Tuesday afternoon, with highs forecast in the upper 60s to mid 70s. However, conditions on Wednesday would depend on whether the trough is still in the area or not. If the feature has moved off to the east, warmer and drier conditions could be expected, with highs in the mid 70s to 80s. Otherwise, cooler and wetter conditions would be expected to remain in place.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 443 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

GLD: Overcast skies with MVFR ceilings and brief intervals of reduced visibility (4 SM or less) from intermittent periods of light rain are likely to evolve to periods of light to moderate, occasionally heavy, rain by late tonight. Meanwhile, SSE winds gradually diminish to near 10-15 knots, with gusts to 15-20 knots by tomorrow morning when low level wind shear (SSE at 40 knots) around 2,000 ft is also briefly possible. Following, ceilings could lower to IFR throughout the morning hours along with intermittent thunderstorms, which could further lower ceilings to LIFR.

MCK: Periods of MVFR ceilings and reduced visibility (4 SM or less) from light showers persist into the early nighttime hours tonight, followed by on-and-off light to moderate, occasionally heavy, showers late tonight into tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, SSE winds are likeling to steadily drop off tonight to near 10-15 knots, with gusts to 15-20 knots by tomorrow morning, followed by IFR ceilings with additional periods of rain, which could further lower ceilings to LIFR. A few thunderstorms are not out of the question either, especially during the late morning to early afternoon hours tomorrow as well.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.