textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week. The probability of severe weather will be low.

- Temperatures gradually warming back to above normal by the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Upper ridge centered over the southeast CONUS today will gradually work its way back westward to Texas by the end of the period. This position will keep the Central High Plains under southwest flow. Embedded disturbances will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly at night, which develop in southeast Colorado and the Front Range and move northeast with the mean flow. Instability and shear forecasts remain weak through the period, with generally 500-1000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 20 kts of 0-500mb shear, peaking in the afternoon to early evening. Those parameters should keep the risk of severe weather low. 0-6 km mean winds are generally in the 20-30 kt range, so storms will be moving and not expecting any flooding concerns despite repeated rounds of mostly beneficial rainfall.

For tonight, a southerly low level jet at around 20 kts produces weak isentropic lift at 315 K, generally north of Interstate 70, after 06z through about 15z Wednesday morning. Scattered light showers may develop during that time with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, but MUCAPE is less than 500 j/kg. Low clouds will overspread the area after 02z and persist through the night, gradually dissipating through 18z Wednesday. Patchy fog will be possible towards sunrise east of Highway 23/83 where an easterly wind component remains. Wednesday afternoon, scattered storms will develop in southeast Colorado after 21z possibly reaching the far southwest corner of the area by 00z (Cheyenne County Colorado, Greeley and Wichita counties), then scattered showers and storms continuing northeast into the area Wednesday night. Locally strong wind gust of up to 50 mph may accompany stronger storms, but the probability of severe weather is low. The pattern repeats for Thursday and Friday, though storms may develop earlier Friday afternoon.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal on Wednesday with upper 70s to lower 80s, warming to above normal on Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower 80s. Coolest temperatures will be tonight, ranging from the upper 40s in northeast Colorado to the upper 50s in north central Kansas.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A weak 500-mb trough looks to be located over portions of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming Saturday morning. This feature is expected to be moving slowly eastward throughout the long term period. A weak to modest jet streak may develop over Kansas during the afternoon hours ahead of this feature, which would support a surface low pressure over the area and back into the South-Central Plains. A cold front would seem likely as this surface low passes through the area, which would cool temperatures down a bit and provide some chances for precipitation. High temperatures are currently forecast in the upper 70s and lower 80s Saturday. This is supported by LREF standard deviations in wind direction which show the highest uncertainty in wind direction south and east of the forecast area by noon Saturday. This would suggest the front would have already come through the area by that time. However, NBM 75th and higher percentiles in high temperature for Saturday show highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, which could indicate a slower frontal passage. Currently, the faster frontal passage is favored, with about 75% of LREF members suggesting highs lower than the mid 80s.

NBM guidance also shows most of the forecast area at a 40-50% chance of receiving 0.1 inches of rain or higher Saturday, the exception being areas north of US Highway 24 and east of Kansas Highway 25. However, LREF guidance shows less than a 25% chance across the forecast area that surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) will be above 1000 J/kg. As such, widespread rainfall with perhaps a few localized showers are favored as opposed to convective thunderstorms.

Surface winds are forecast to be weak, but out of the north Sunday as the upper level trough moves in overhead. Conditions look to be relatively temperate, with highs forecast in the low to mid 70s, and chances for precipitation decreasing. NBM guidance shows less than a 25% chance of receiving greater than 0.1 inches of rain Sunday except for areas along and west of Kansas Highway 27 and south of I- 70. Any activity is once again expected to be just rainfall and perhaps some localized showers instead of thunderstorms, as LREF guidance continues to show lower values of CAPE.

Forecast guidance becomes more uncertain by Monday morning. Specifically, ensembles show the 500-mb trough getting muted beyond Monday, or spread increasing around the feature. When looking at deterministic guidance, this is in relation to how quickly the trough will move out of the area and into the Midwest. However, ensemble guidance is in good agreement that troughing will redevelop across the Western United States Monday and Tuesday. Taking this into account, a reasonable forecast would be conditions remaining like Sunday until the initial trough moves out of the area. Once that happens, temperatures would begin to increase ahead of the new trough to the west, along with elevated chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected to lower to IFR heights by sunrise for both KGLD and KMCK. There is higher confidence in the low ceilings at KMCK, which may even drop to minimums. KGLD also has a threat of hitting minimums, but that is only around a 30% chance. Patchy fog may also impact both sites this morning. Conditions are expected to be improving by noon, but KMCK is likely to see MVFR and lower ceilings and by Thursday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.