textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild conditions are forecast, but fog is forecast each morning through at least Sunday.

- 40-60% rain chances return tomorrow and Saturday morning.

- Early next week may see strong northwesterly winds and precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1223 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

An 850 mb high over the Ohio River valley is funneling moisture into the High Plains from the Gulf. This moisture advection is expected to persist through the weekend. This will work to keep temperatures mild and skies mostly cloudy, as well as keep the fog around.

Up at 500 mb, we are currently sitting under weak southwesterly flow. A broad shortwave trough will develop over Texas early Friday morning and gradually move northeast and impact the CWA. This trough will bring in some precipitation chances, mainly in the eastern CWA. The first wave of rain is forecast between 6-12Z Friday morning northeast of a line from Gove, KS to Benkelman, NE. This wave has a 30% chance of forming, but the Friday afternoon precipitation has a 60% chance of occurring. The bulk of this precipitation will be east of the Colorado border, increasing farther east. Prime time for rain will be 21-09Z Friday night.

Highs through the short-term are forecast to be in the mid 50s and 60s while lows will be in the 40s to low 50s. As mentioned above, the inflow of moisture will work to keep us saturated and overnight and morning fog remains likely through the short-term. As it stands, there is 50-70% confidence that dense fog returns tonight for most of the CWA; don't be surprised if a Dense Fog Advisory is issued for Friday morning. The main limiting factor for fog is the precipitation. Where moderate to heavier rain is occurring, fog will likely be washed out. Fog likely returns Saturday and Sunday mornings too, however confidence in dense fog is 40% and 30% respectively.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 244 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

For Sunday, high temperatures are forecast in the 50s to 60s. Storm chances start Sunday evening with PoPs of 50-75% increasing west to east. Precipitation type will likely be rain based on forecast temperatures and cloud cover. Instability is overall weak with modest lapse rates and spotty CAPE values of <500 J/kg, so a weak thunderstorm or two isn't out of the question for the eastern county warning area (CWA) if it is able to tap into the weak instability in the environment.

Upper-level features are likely to send us into a more active weather pattern Sunday through at least Tuesday. A deep trough is forecast to extend from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) southeast with a second trough not too far behind it in the western Pacific. As these features propogate east, it will allow the subtropical jet to drift north placing a strong jet streak across the region Sunday. Models also show a surface low develop in eastern Colorado Sunday evening and propogate east sometime overnight into Monday. Ensembles generally agree that the low will set up in eastern Colorado, but diverge on when it will traverse east and where it will set up. Currently, ensembles show the surface low setting up somewhere in the Central Plains or the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. The interaction, track, and evolution of these surface and upper-level features will play a major role in our weather pattern heading into the work week.

The upper-level pattern could support a high wind event Monday and Tuesday, but the big question will be where the surface low tracks and the amount of cloud cover across the CWA. Clear skies will allow stronger winds to mix down to the surface while clouds will keep the winds above the surface. If we end up with clear skies and a low further south or east of the CWA, we could see wind gusts up to 60 mph Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Dust would be unlikely for areas that received precipitation over the weekend and current forecast lapse rates are unsupportive of dust being lofted. A low tracking over the CWA would likely increase precipitation chances and cloud cover, overall lowering risk for strong winds. Low confidence in which scenario will play out. It will heavily depend on the track and evolution of the aforementioned upper-level troughs over the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

IFR conditions are forecast to persist through the bulk of the period for KGLD and KMCK. Ceilings will be the main driving factor. KMCK may see scattered skies this afternoon, technically becoming VFR, but this would likely be brief. The fog should be breaking by 18-20Z, but will return tonight. KMCK also has a 30% chance at seeing some scattered showers in the early morning hours tomorrow.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.