textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds expected north of Interstate 70 on Wednesday. Winds will bring increased fire danger threat as well as threat for blowing dust.

- Fire weather conditions possible again Thursday and Friday. Yuma county is the main concern for Friday.

- A winter system may affect the region early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1204 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

15Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate broad ridge in place across the southwestern CONUS with CWA in generally northwesterly flow aloft as ridge axis remains to the west of area. At the surface...trough axis was located from roughly KSUX to KGUY just to the east of area. Morning sounding at KDDC indicated a very warm and dry airmass in place in southwest KS, but difficult to determine the extent of this dry airmass to the north, which will be crucial to todays fire weather threat. Satellite derived precipitable water suggests this area extends north through out the CWA, but will need to watch surface observations closely as things mix out.

Fire weather, winds and perhaps some dust are the most pressing near term concerns.

This afternoon and tonight...primary concern for today will be magnitude of stronger winds mixing down behind aforementioned surface trough and how much dry air will accompany it. Starting to see some pockets of low humidity and marginal winds develop, but with GFDI remaining below critical levels not convinced threat is high enough to warrant warning at this point. Winds will rapidly become light and variable at sunset, with little if any sensible weather concerns overnight.

For Wednesday...Most pressing concern for the time period will be fire weather and winds and the hazards generally associated with those patterns. RAP is the most aggressive with both the cold frontal passage and the development of strong westerly winds in the warm sector ahead of it. In this worst case scenario, we will see a period of critical fire weather conditions with winds gusting as high as 50 mph near the Tri-State border followed by a strong and sudden wind shift to the north. Three hour pressure rises and timing of front in this case would support a period of strong wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range as well. Both GFS and Canadian are similar to the RAP although more muted on magnitude of winds while NAM remains notably slower posing a much smaller overall risk. While not entirely confidence the worst case scenario, even taking a more average approach yielding a few hours of GFDI hitting significant threat levels. Further complicating all of this, weak axis of surface based instability will bring the potential for scattered showers with potential rumble of thunder ahead and just behind front. With vertical profile remaining very dry and instability limited, think that these showers would pose a strong and erratic wind threat combined with little of any precipitation reaching the ground.

One other concern should a solution like RAP occur is blowing dust. Would expect to see some dust plumes ahead of front, especially in Yuma county throughout the afternoon. When front hits this area with preconditioned/very dry soil in the late afternoon early evening it would be a favorable pattern for a "wall of dust" type event occurring along KS/CO border. Since this is the worst case type of solution, confidence remains low (~15%) that this will occur but does warrant monitoring.

After front passes Wednesday evening expect cooler temperatures to settle over the region. A lingering fire weather threat will persist on Thursday as airmass remains very dry, but winds will be decreasing through the day, lowering overall concerns.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 125 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Friday, conditions continue to warm as our region remains in a northwest flow with a building ridge along the west coast. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s with lows in the 30s. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the teens for a majority of the county warning area (CWA). Despite low RH values, fire weather concerns have overall diminished due to winds backing down with the latest run of the NBM. Yuma county could still have a few hours of elevated to critical fire weather conditions with gusts around 30 mph possible Friday afternoon.

Saturday, a cold frontal passage from the north will cool our region down. Models are beginning to align more on how cold our region will get. NBM 75-25th percentile differences in high temperatures have narrowed down to around 9 degrees F for our CWA. The remaining uncertainty is likely due to the model disagreement on the speed a low pressure system along the US/Canadian border traverses east. Approximately 1/3 of the GFS ensemble members have the center of low pressure traversing east quicker than the rest. A quicker moving system would allow less cold air to advect towards our region resulting in higher than forecast temperatures. Low confidence in this scenario since the ECMWF ensembles, Canadian ensembles and approximately 2/3s of the GFS ensemble members align on the slower moving system. This is reflected in forecast high temperatures and NBM temperature probabilities. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. NBM probabilities for temperatures greater than 55 degrees F are around 80% for the southwest portion of the CWA and between 50-60% for the northeast portion. Winds are forecast to pick up in the afternoon with gusts from 20-30 mph possible for our region.

Sunday will be cooler in the wake of the cold frontal passage. High temperatures are forecast in the 40s to 50s. Winds again are forecast to pick up in the afternoon for our Colorado counties with gusts around 30 mph possible.

Sunday evening into Monday, our CWA has a slight chance for precipitation due to a shortwave passing through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 10-30% beginning overnight Sunday and throughout the day Monday. Forecast temperatures support rain transitioning to snow/wintery mix. Wind gusts Monday afternoon are forecast from 20-30 mph for the CWA, so blowing snow could be a concern depending on if and what type of precipitation falls.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 418 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions should persist over both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Light and variable surface winds and considerable high clouds should continue through the overnight hours. A few high based virga/showers may develop this afternoon near the KMCK terminal and persist into the early evening, but are not expected to be impactful. After 16Z tomorrow, winds should begin to increase initially out of the west-northwest with gusts of ~25-30 kts possible. Around 22-02Z tomorrow a cold front should begin to move over KGLD and KMCK causing winds to become northerly.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 545 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Newest 12Z guidance that is coming in is holding a 40-45 knot 850mb jet in place across Hitchcock, Red Willow Decatur and Norton counties a little longer than previously seen. Due to the longer nature in which this jet is forecast to remain in place has led to an increase in forecasted winds as the nocturnal inversion should be fulled mixed out as mixing heights rise to around 2000' AGL. Based on this wind gusts up to 35 mph may be possible from roughly 17-20Z. Did contemplate a small Red Flag Warning for northeastern portions of the area but opted to hold off due to moisture advection around 300K and seen in nearly all surface dew point output as the potential for some virga or sprinkles increases. Most guidance has the moisture moving into the CWA around 20-22Z which would leave a short window for multiple hours of critical fire weather conditions to occur. There is a 45% chance that the moisture is delayed an hour or two which in return would lead to multiple hours of critical conditions but with declining winds through the afternoon. Taken a look at the Vapor Pressure Deficit the average at the Dundy and Red Willow Nebraska Mesonet sites is lower than in the Nebraska Panhandle for example by around 0.15- 0.2Hg and is more consistent with the remainder of the state. As for the Kansas side 10 hour fuel moisture is forecast to be closer to 20% which does cut down of the fire spread risk some as well Due to the lower confidence in 3+ hours of critical conditions occurring ,the decrease in winds and the above mentioned 10 hour fuel moisture and lower Vapor Pressure Deficit mentioned above am opting to hold off on the issuance of a Red Flag Warning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for KSZ001. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for COZ252. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for COZ253. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NEZ079.