textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week.

- Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

This afternoon, we are still expecting temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s across the CWA, likely the warmest of the week. There is a weak stationary boundary that is set up over northeastern Colorado. This may form some weak showers early this afternoon, which could drain some of the instability from the environment for the storms later today. There is only a 5-10% chance of this occurring though. The main line of storms will be coming from a 500 mb shortwave trough.

Overall, today is a stronger copy of Tuesday. Storms look to be entering the western CWA around 22-0Z. Most likely, we will see a broken line of storms fire off in eastern Colorado and fill into a QLCS by 0-3Z. Wind is the primary threat with these storms, especially if a bowing segment in the QLCS is able to form. Winds up to 85 MPH would be possible in this case, which would create a blowing dust hazard, maybe even a haboob. Most likely, wind gusts will be in the 55-70 MPH range, which could lead to blowing dust, but a haboob becomes slightly less likely and localized plumes of dust would become the hazard.

Effective shear looks to be on the low-end side for this event, mainly in the 20-35 kts range. This is still enough for some severe hail to form, but makes it less likely. LCLs are forecast to be above 2 km. That combined with the poor shear means tornadoes are extremely unlikely this evening. The severe threat looks to end around 6Z, but showers may linger until closer to 9-12Z.

Over the past multiple runs, the NAMNest has been showing a second solution to today's convection. This would have a cell form around or south of Limon, CO and move to the southeast in the early evening. Then, around 4-5Z, around the Tri-State border, another round of storms fires and move to the east-southeast. This solution is less likely, but if it occurs the wind threat lowers significantly, the hail threat increases to 2 inches being possible, and severe convection may last until closer to 9Z.

In addition to these threats, there is a 25% chance that some backbuilding fingers from the main line of convection produce 1-2 inches of rain. It's unlikely, but this could produce localized flash flooding overnight tonight.

Tomorrow's severe threat is very similar to today, with slightly better shear. Low level flow may be a few knots higher, which looks to push effective shear closer to the 35 kts mark. This increases the likelihood of hail, but maximum hail size remains around 1.75 inches. There is a slightly higher chance of a brief tornado, but still less than 2%. Models are in better agreement that tomorrow will be a QLCS moving across the CWA with wind being the primary threat, still. The dust potential does decrease due to recent precipitation, but is still a possibility.

Once again, a 500 mb shortwave trough looks to spark off the main wave of storms, entering the CWA around 22-0Z. However, there is a 20% chance that another weak boundary fires off some weak showers and storms in eastern Colorado around 18-20Z. This convection may once again lower instability and decrease the severe risk for Friday evening. The main wave of the convection looks to have severe potential until around 6-9Z Friday morning.

As far as a flooding threat, this increases with Thursday night's storms. PWATS in the 1.2-1.6 inch range are expected and there are more models that are trying to show leading edge and backbuilding fingers of convection. This could lead to precipitation totals in the 2-4 inch range. Combined with tonight's precipitation, this increases the overnight flash flooding risk to around 30%.

Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today, but still in the 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to remain around 60s in the western CWA and around 70 in the eastern CWA.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Friday appears to be the last in a series of days with diurnally driven thunderstorms developing and persisting through the evening hours. Confidence in this time period is somewhat lower than normal since it will strongly depend on how thunderstorms develop tonight and tomorrow night. That being said, general pattern appears to hold frontal zone to the south of area, with generally easterly upslope flow throughout the day. Best large scale forcing for ascent appears to just skirt the CWA south of Interstate 70 as weak H7-H5 low moves into SW Kansas. As mentioned before, confidence in details is low at this point and time but overall pattern supports another round of thunderstorms developing over higher terrain and moving to the east southeast in the evening hours. Directional shear will be better than previous days, although overall wind speeds aloft are on the weaker side Friday will likely provide the best shear profiles for organized storms. Similar to the past few days, highest threat will be for organized areas of damaging winds through the evening followed by threat for hail in the 1" to 1.75" range. Blowing dust threat will depend greatly on how and where precipitation falls on Thursday and morning cloud cover. Confidence in these specifics are very low at this point however, resulting in low confidence in dust threat.

Region will move into a warm and dry pattern as strong H5 597 dm ridge develops and builds into the northern plains through the start of the week. While there is a small threat for precipitation/thunderstorms on periphery of the H5 ridge Saturday this potential drops off rapidly through the rest of the period as subsidence under strong ridge. With probabilities of this magnitude of ridging fairly high based on ensemble probabilities, confidence in hot and overall dry weather is high. With temperatures climbing into the 90s, possibly upper 90s by mid week, the primary expected impacts. Right now, dewpoints should remain high enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions, but will have to keep a close eye on heat indices through the start of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1043 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KMCK and KGLD through the period. Winds are forecast to be fairly light this afternoon, favoring an east-northeasterly direction. Storms look to move through the region this evening into the overnight hours. Expect strong gusts with the leading edge of the storms from the northwest, potentially with blowing dust too. Behind the storms, winds will favor a northwesterly direction, before favoring a northeasterly direction later in the morning Thursday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.