textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold Weather Advisory is in effect until late Monday morning for the entire Tri-State area.

- Another round of snow likely this afternoon/evening. Eastern Colorado may see an additional 1-2 inches of snow with the rest of the area seeing a trace up to 1 inch.

- The ongoing cold snap will end by early Monday afternoon. A gradual warming trend will follow, through midweek.

- Localized blowing snow is possible Monday afternoon, when southwest winds could gust up to 30 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1125 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

This evening, another trough will sweep through the region and bring with it a chance at some light snow and stratus. The column is only saturated in the low and mid levels, but there is a strong band of vorticity at 500 mb, especially across the western CWA. Most likely, the western edge of the CWA will see 1-2 inches of snow, areas between Stratton, CO and KS 25 will generally see between 0.25-1 inch of snow. Areas on east will likely see a trace to less than 0.25 inch of snow , except northeast of Culbertson to Hill City, which may only see flurries. This snowfall will start moving into the northwestern CWA around 21Z, peak around 0-3Z, and exit to the south around 6-9Z.

The timing and coverage of the east side of the stratus and precipitation are adding some chaos into the low temperatures tonight. As it stands, at least scattered sky coverage is expected along and south of U.S. 24 until 12Z. This should keep the surface insulated moderately well, and keep temperatures from dropping too much throughout most of the night, letting it be warmer than last night. However, the sky looks to become mostly clear before sunrise, which will likely be enough time for temperatures to cool around -10 to 0. This would lead to wind chills in the -25 to -25 range. If the sky clears out sooner, expect temperatures to drop another 5 degrees, and wind chills to drop a similar amount. Current confidence is about 50% that the sky will clear early and Norton, Decatur, Red Willow, and Graham counties will see wind chills below -25, Cold Weather Warning criteria. However, until that confidence climbs, an Advisory will remain in place for the entire Tri-State area.

Tomorrow looks comparatively mild as a weak ridge builds into the Great Basin, leaving us under northwesterly flow aloft. We could see some gusts around 25-30 kts across the area tomorrow afternoon. There is a 10-15% chance the new snow from this afternoon may blow and reduce visibility to 1-3 miles. For the snow that fell Friday/Saturday, confidence is about 3-5% for the same impacts. Temperatures in the snowpacked are will likely top out around freezing while areas to the northwest will warm closer to 40. Winds overnight Monday looks to remain westerly, which the NBM is expecting to keep temperatures in the low teens. For areas without snowpack, this is likely. Remaining snowpack areas will likely cool into the single digits, with wind chills dropping to around 0. There's a 40% chance areas with remaining snowpack will cool an additional 5 degrees, in both air temperature and wind chills.

Tuesday, a shortwave trough looks to propogate through the northwesterly flow. However, with only some mild upper level moisture, no precipitation is likely with this wave. Temperatures from the NBM show mid 40s in the west and just above freezing in the east. With the cloud cover and snowpack, it's likely temperatures are 3-5 degrees too warm, meaning the southeastern CWA will likely not warm above freezing. Temperatures are wind chills Tuesday night are very similar to Monday night's.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 231 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Wednesday we start off with a ridge building west of the Rocky Mountains and a low in the Great Lakes region. This puts us in a predominately northwest flow with sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures forecast in the low 50s/high 40s for a majority of the county warning area (CWA). Graham and Gove counties may have temperatures at least 5 degrees lower depending on how much snowpack remains from last weekend's winter system. Low temperatures are forecast in the teens for Wednesday. Winds will be mild and variable with gusts from 15-20 mph possible.

Thursday cools down slightly as the low in the Great Lakes regions deepens and a cold front sweeps down towards our region. High temperatures are in the high 30s for the eastern portion of the CWA and high 40s for the rest of the CWA. Low temperatures drop into the upper single digits for the northeastern portion of the CWA. Winds are forecast to be mild and variable for the most part, but our Colorado counties could see wind gusts up to 30 mph. Overnight wind chills approach zero for the northeast portion of the CWA. Models align well with timing of the cold front affecting our area, but disagree on how much the low will dig south. Currently, the Euro has the trough digging deeper than the GFS, which would funnel more cold area into our area. Temperatures are forecast to be colder with highs in the upper 30s for the CWA.

Looking at the 280K Theta-E surfaces, our region is mostly in a dry sector with moisture present east of us. This, combined with lack of upper level support, chances of precipitation Thursday overnight into Friday are fairly low. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 5-10% overnight and 5-15% throughout the day Friday. PoPs could increase if more moisture is advected into our region along with the cold air Friday.

Another warm up is forecast for the weekend as a ridge builds west of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast in the low 40s-50s with things cooler west to east on Saturday. Lows are forecast in the 20s with mild and variable winds for the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1027 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected this evening the KGLD, mainly between 0-6Z as stratus and snow moves across the area. KMCK is not clear of the threat, but the worst is expected to remain west of the airport. Otherwise, it's decent weather to fly in.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ090>092. NE...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Monday for NEZ079>081.