textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to occasionally moderate rain likely tonight through Thursday morning.

- Windy on Thursday with gusts up to 40 mph likely. Low probabilities of gusts greater than 50 mph in northeast Colorado as well as blowing dust.

- Threat for first frost and freeze of the season increasing for Friday and Saturday mornings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 153 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Current mid-level water vapor imagery shows mainly southwest flow aloft, with a low west of the Rocky Mountains. Persistent northeast surface winds have kept conditions cool and cloudy with scattered light rain showers and mist throughout the county warning area (CWA). Showers will decrease in coverage throughout the afternoon and pick up again after sunset. Patchy fog and mist are possible overnight as easterly/northeasterly winds will keep conditions moist across the area. Chances for rain showers will persist through Thursday evening. Storm total precipitation is expected to be around 0.50 inches for the CWA. Across the northeastern CWA, the LREF has around a 20% chance of storm total precipitation exceeding 1 inch through Thursday evening.

For Thursday, conditions are expected to remain cool and cloudy with high temperatures forecast in the 50s. A strong jet streak is forecast to move across our region. Winds will start to pick up early Thursday morning. Mostly northwesterly winds with gusts around 30 mph are expected throughout the area. Counties along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border could see gusts around 45 mph. Winds will start to calm down around midnight, but breezy conditions with gusts around 25 mph are possible through Friday morning. Areas that receive little to no precipitation could see localized blowing dust accompanying the stronger winds.

Conditions are expected to remain cloudy until Thursday evening. If clouds clear sooner, the risk for strong winds will increase as stronger winds will be able to mix down to the surface. If cloud cover remains thick or fails to clear, the overall wind threat could diminish.

Clear skies Thursday night will set the stage for our potential first frost/freeze event overnight into Friday morning. Low temperatures are forecast in the high 20s to 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for counties along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border, including Dundy county in Nebraska. Current NBM probabilities have our Colorado counties around a 70% chance of temperatures below 32 F. The line of counties east of the Colorado/Kansas and Colorado/Nebraska border have a 20-40% chance of temperatures below 32 F, with chances increasing east to west.

Breezy conditions and cool temperatures continue Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 50s. Gusts around 30 mph are possible as the jet streak over our area from Thursday continues to traverse east. Clear skies are expected to persist throughout the day, so we have another chance of temperatures below freezing overnight into Saturday.

Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to drop into the low 20s for the western CWA Friday and continue to trend down into the mid teens on Saturday. These may drop further depending on how the precipitation and winds pan out for Thursday, so fire weather potential going into the weekend will be something to monitor for.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 256 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Synoptically, we find ourselves in northwest flow aloft on Saturday as a ridge develops over the eastern Rockies/northern Plains. The upper-level pattern will briefly shift westerly then southwesterly flow Sunday as this system propagates eastward across the north- central CONUS. Winds aloft should remain from the southwest until a shortwave passage shifts them to be briefly zonal or west- northwestward on Monday. After this, ensemble guidance suggests more ridging building in Tuesday which insinuates southwest upper-level flow once again. Descending to the surface, high pressure is forecasted Saturday through late Sunday. A weak low, associated with the shortwave, should then move across the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday. No frontal boundaries are anticipated with the overall system over the four-day forecast period, therefore limiting any precipitation chances to shortwave passages.

It is likely to be dry Saturday through Tuesday as current Probability of Precipitation (PoP) guidance has 5% or less for the entire long-term period. High temperatures Saturday should be on the more seasonable side, with general 60s and low 70s expected throughout the CWA. Sunday/Monday should see a bit of a warmup as 70s across the board are anticipated. Said warmup should culminate in upper 70s for Tuesday. Low overnight temperatures are what we will have to watch for this timeframe as well. Many locales have a strong chance to see their first frost/freeze of the season this Saturday with low temperatures projected to bottom out in the low 30s. Guidance currently has a range of 30-33 degrees for the entire CWA. Looking ahead, lows Sunday through Tuesday are expected to sit in the 40s in some locations and upper 30s in others, so freeze potential will be unlikely those mornings.

Fire weather potential will continued to be monitored throughout the week. Currently, there is a low chance of critical fire weather conditions being met in eastern Colorado on Saturday, according to guidance. Relative Humidity (RH) values possibly reaching 14/15% is in the mix on Saturday for areas west of US-385. Simultaneously, southerly surface winds are expected to peak around 20-25 mph, gusting 35-40 mph. For the rest of the forecast period, RH values reaching the upper teens is likely Sunday and Monday for our eastern Colorado counties. Northerly winds, shifting southeast with the shortwave passage, generally 5-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph is expected. Tuesday's RHs and winds are not expected to be of concern for fire weather in eastern Colorado. Elsewhere in the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is likely through the weekend and into next week. General winds of 5-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph is expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Expect persistent low ceilings and reduced visibility as an upper low moves into Colorado and passes through the area. Light showers and mist are expected to impact both terminals throughout the day and evenings. Higher confidence in showers after 03Z. Winds will mainly be light and mostly out of the northeast until around 12Z. Winds will shift to mainly out of the northwest and begin to pick up. Conditions are expected to remain windy through at least Thursday evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NEZ079.