textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through the duration of the work week, hottest on Thu-Fri when highs are forecast to reach the upper 80's to mid 90's.

- Locally gusty winds of 40-50 mph may accompany sprinkles and virga this evening.

- A marginal risk for a severe storm or two Thursday afternoon and early evening for the entire area. Wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to an inch in diameter are possible.

- Additional chances for severe weather Saturday and Sunday. Sunday may also have critical fire weather conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1120 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Current observations show an upper ridge over much of the High Plains with low pressure setting in along the Front Range. This is forecast to allow winds to stay breezy for much of the area along the Colorado border. This morning has already seen winds around 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. With these speeds likely to continue through the day, elevated fire weather conditions remain forecast. We may be able to see some briefly critical conditions if the southerly flow is too slow in bringing in lower level moisture and higher dewpoints. Otherwise, sunny skies are forecast through the day.

This evening, cloud cover is forecast to increase as an upper trough begins to try and push in behind the ridge and bring higher level moisture. This is also forecast to bring a 10% or less chance for isolated sprinkles/showers through much of the night. Winds should stay up around 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph until closer to sunrise when the surface low moves more into the area. Temperatures should remain in the 50s and 60s.

Thursday, the upper trough is forecast to swing into and through the Northern Plains while the surface low moves over the area. With the low over the area, winds should be lighter with speeds closer to 10- 15 mph, but varying in direction depending on what side of the low you are on. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast with the higher level moisture forecast to slowly push from west to east. Even with the cloud cover, temperatures are forecast to warm to around 90 with continued warm air advection due to winds from the west/southwest in the lower levels. A few thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon/evening hours with convergence zones setting up along the surface low. The issue is that the low levels are forecast to have a 30-50 degree dewpoint depression, which should hinder how many storms could develop and sustain themselves. We do have a chance for severe weather as dry microbursts will be a concerns with showers/storms that do develop. With this, there could be a few gusts that reach 60-70 mph. As for hail, most of the area east of Highway 83 will likely be too dry and have too little instability for anything more than 1/4 to 1/2 inch hail. Further east, the instability is forecast to be a bit higher (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) during the evening hours. If a storm sustains itself, it wouldn't be unreasonable for hail up to one inch in size to occur. The overall chance for severe weather in the area looks to be about 5-10% with a few spotty instances if severe weather does occur.

Friday, zonal flow is forecast to develop over the Plains with the low pressure system broadening just south of the area. This will put the area in northerly flow at the surface and may allow for a slight cooling of temperatures with 80s for the western half and low 90s for the rest of the area. Drier air is forecast to push into the area and lower relative humidity into the single digits and teens for most of the area. This could lead to a concern for critical fire weather conditions if the winds can be stronger than the current forecast. For now though, the surface low is forecast to become more broad and weaken the winds as the day goes along. Skies should be mostly sunny through the day with drier air in place through most of the air column. There is the possibility of a few showers when upper level moisture moves in from the west late in the day. However, the overall lack of forcing is forecast to keep showers generally west of the area in the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 321 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

***Synopsis***

Broad troughing looks to set up across the Western United States on Saturday and Sunday. The base of the trough in the Desert Southwest is favored to support a surface low pressure to develop across the South-Central High Plains. A warm front looks to be in place across Kansas as a consequence of this flow. This surface low may persist in the area through Sunday afternoon and evening. Model guidance is a little more uncertain going into Monday regarding where the incoming trough will be located. GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean- spread guidance shows southwesterly flow remaining across the area through at least Wednesday morning, as troughing across the west remains. However, the trough may still move in overhead as soon as Monday. Guidance is much more divergent between deterministics and ensembles by Wednesday.

***Saturday***

High temperatures on Saturday look to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. There may be some potential for thunderstorms to occur during the afternoon and evening hours, some of which may be severe. The surface low pressure just to the south of the forecast area is favored to establish a strong southerly flow across Texas and Oklahoma, with approximately southeasterly to easterly winds across the forecast area. This would allow some of the moisture in this return to nudge into the CWA. According to LREF guidance, most of the area has at least a 50% chance to experience dew point temperatures above 40, while areas along and east of Highway 283 have a 50% chance or better to experience dew points above 50. Higher end scenarios would be associated with mid to upper 50 dew point temperatures as far west as the Kansas-27 Corridor. CAPE values (a measure of instability) may have a reasonable maximum of about 2000 J/kg, though most scenarios show 750-1500 J/kg being the most likely range across portions of Norton and Graham Counties in Kansas. Additionally, GFS and EC model soundings show 0-6 km shear in the 40-50 kt range during the afternoon and evening hours, which could support severe thunderstorms along the warm front. Considering the higher surface temperatures to be experienced, storms would most likely be high-based (2 km or higher), limiting the tornado threat. However, stronger storms could be associated with strong winds and potentially large hail. Confidence in severe thunderstorms occurring Saturday are about 15-20%, the limiting factors being how much moisture and instability will be in play for storms to take advantage of.

***Sunday***

Similar high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s are forecast Sunday, with continued severe thunderstorm potential. However, with the northward movement of the surface low into portions of Colorado, westerly to southwesterly flow may be experienced across portions of the area during the afternoon and evening. This could introduce critical fire weather as an additional hazard due to the presence of a dryline. There is a bit of uncertainty regarding where the dryline will set up, as noted by the 75th-25th percentile spread in dew point temperatures across the area in the 10-20 degree range. What can be said is that areas behind the dryline could experience low to mid teen relative humidities (RH), with dew points in the 50s out ahead of the dryline. What makes this scenario about the dryline interesting is that the surface low deepening in Colorado may allow some moisture to wrap around in the form of a hook in northern portions of the region. As such, we may see a scenario where southwestern portions of the CWA (mainly East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas) receive the driest conditions, as opposed to a typical scenario where the dryline is oriented north-to-south.

Regarding critical fire weather conditions, wind gusts across Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas are forecast in the 30-45 mph range. NBM guidance is in agreement with this scenario, suggesting a 50-80% chance across this zone that wind gusts will exceed 30 mph. Considering that RH values in the low to mid- teens are possible, stronger critical fire weather conditions may exist from the mid afternoon to early evening hours Sunday. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed behind the dryline is around 30%, as winds appear likely to exceed criteria by at least 5-10 mph, and RH values have a 50% chance or better to fall below critical fire weather criteria according to LREF guidance.

For severe thunderstorm potential, LREF guidance currently showing a 50-70% chance for dew points in the 50s or higher along and north of the I-70 Corridor, and along and east of the Kansas-27 Corridor. A reasonable maximum for CAPE values looks to be around 2500 J/kg east of the dryline, with a reasonable range in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Further, GFS and EC model soundings are in line with 0-6 km shear around 50-60 kts. Again, large hail and strong wind seem to be the most likely hazards from stronger storms, with tornadoes less likely due to storms being higher-based. Confidence in severe weather out ahead of the dryline is currently around 15%.

***Monday-Wednesday***

Again, model guidance becomes divergent by Monday, though southwesterly flow appears favored based on GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance. This would be caused by troughing that remains to the west of the CWA. Generally, this could favor warmer temperatures, but forecast guidance drops highs on Monday and Tuesday as low as the lower-60s. This may be due to movement of the low from Saturday and Sunday slightly east, allowing cooler air to come into the area, or troughing moving in overhead. Even so, NBM guidance does still have 75th percentile temperatures in the 80s and 90s across portions of Northwest Kansas Monday, with the cooler conditions much more likely on Tuesday. Regardless, forecast guidance suggests that precipitation is possible across the area Monday and Tuesday. Most of this activity would be light precipitation, with NBM 48 hr precipitation guidance suggesting totals around 0.1 inches from activity Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, guidance is even more divergent, though ensemble guidance still shows the indication of troughing across a wide portion of the United States. Deterministics are fairly uncertain on the placement. If troughing can remain to the west, conditions similar to Monday and Tuesday may be experienced. However, troughing overhead may be associated with cool and dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 517 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period with mostly clear skies. Winds are forecast to be around 15-25 kts through much of the period with sporadic gusts near 30-35 kts. Otherwise, the main concern is low level wind shear from the south-southeast tonight with winds around 200ft forecast to increase to 40-45 kts after 02-03Z. This could linger until 12-13Z, especially for KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.