textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Severe weather threat continues with afternoon and evening storms today and Monday. 50-70 MPH winds are the main hazards, but 1-2 inch hail is also possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 328 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Current mid-level water vapor and surface analysis shows our region under a weak upper-level ridge accompanied by a surface low in north- central Kansas. The few lingering clouds we had this morning cleared out quickly setting the stage for another day of hot temperatures and chances for afternoon/evening storms. High temperatures have already reached the 90s for the majority of the county warning area (CWA) and are expected to climb to the high 90s for the eastern CWA. Winds will be light and variable providing little relief from the hot temperatures.

Moving on to our storm chances for the afternoon/evening, storms are expected to initiate off the Front Range and traverse east/northeast through the CWA. HREF paintballs are showing storms moving into our area between 23Z and 1Z. Main concerns with any storms will be strong winds around 50 to 60 mph and small hail based on inverted V model soundings throughout the CWA. Overall, the environment is marginally unstable with around 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, mid- level lapse rates around 7 C/km and effective shear around 40-45 knots. Storm motions are forecast to be around 20 knots. These speeds typically do not support flash flooding, but it is something to monitor for with any training storms.

Large hail could occur with stronger storms if they are able to really tap into the instability in the environment. Instability is the greatest in the far eastern CWA, so storms that make it that far and discrete cells will be the ones to monitor for large hail (~1+ inch) potential. Storms will likely exit the area by 6Z, but some models are showing scattered showers lingering overnight into Monday morning.

Another thing to mention is that the NSSL is showing a large line of storms congeal together by the Colorado/Kansas border and traverse east through the CWA. This scenario could potentially cause strong straight line winds up to 75 mph ahead of the system. This model typically overdoes convection, so low confidence (<5%) that this scenario would occur.

Conditions are forecast to cool slightly due to a cold front moving in from the north Monday morning. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s to 90s. We are forecast to remain under an upper-level ridge with a surface low setting up in northwest Kansas. This will give us continued storm chances for the afternoon and evening hours. Storms are forecast to initiate around the Raton Basin in southeast Colorado and track northeast into the CWA sometime between 23Z and 1Z. Instability is overall greater compared to Sunday due to slightly higher CAPE and higher mid-level lapse rates, so both strong winds and large hail are on the table for hazards. Storms are expected to exit the CWA from the north by 12Z Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1254 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Tuesday through Thursday, not much change in the upper pattern is forecast with the upper ridge over the Southeastern United States with an upper trough over the Northwest United States. This is forecast to keep the air mass roughly the same each day and allow for highs in the 90s and low 100s. The warmer temperatures favor areas that are closer to Central Kansas. Winds should remain around 5-15 mph and vary in direction each day as broad low pressure is expected to linger over much of the Plains. With the upper level southwest flow and upstream trough, mid to high level moisture is forecast to continue streaming into the area and bring in high level cloud cover. A few shortwaves should also move through and help spark storm development west of the area. With the low levels forecast to be a bit on the dry side, storms will likely struggle to make it to the area in the absence of outflows or a low level jet. Still, each day will give the area a chance for storms and maybe even some severe weather.

Going into the weekend, confidence has increased a bit more on the ridge amplifying over the Plains. This is keeping the pattern roughly the same and conditions somewhat similar. Temperatures may be able to warm into the 100s for most of the area if the ridge axis shifts over the area. Otherwise, we should keep the light winds and daily chances for storms.

There is still a 25% though that the upper trough pushes east over the weekend instead. In this case, Friday/Saturday would be hot and have better chances for storms as the trough pushes a more pronounce system through the area. The rest of the weekend would then probably be cooler with highs maybe in the 80s. Storm chances would also probably be a bit lower on Sunday as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 528 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the TAF period. Thunderstorms could impact the terminal starting around 02Z reducing ceilings, visibility and create erratic winds with gusts from 40-50 knots. Storms are expected to move in from the east and should exit the terminal vicinity by 05Z. In the absence of storms, winds will be light and variable through the TAF period.

For KMCK, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. There is a 30% chance of storms impacting the terminal through from 06 to 09Z. If storms occur, they will move in from the east/southeast. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable through the period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.