textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering rain and some snow mixed across far western Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO) will slowly wane through the early evening.

- Tonight through Thursday morning, temperatures are forecast to cool below freezing. A Freeze Warning has been issued for areas along and west of Highway 25 and a Frost Advisory for areas to the east.

- 20-30% chance of showers and storms Thursday afternoon mainly for areas along and north of Highway 36. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 210 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Precipitation continues across the area with the final round of moderate precipation moving into eastern Colorado as of 16Z as noted by an enhancement in channel 10 water vapor imagery. RAP analysis also indicates localized 700mb FGEN which is where corridors of more persistent precipitation is forecast to occur in. Snow continues to be the primary concern across eastern Colorado as another inch or two is possible especially across the higher elevations of our three counties. High pressure is and associated drier air is developing across eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska which will bring a gradual end to the precipitation from north to south through the afternoon hours.

Focus then turns to temperatures for tonight. The high pressure mentioned above is forecast to be moving across the area leading to light winds this evening. Clouds as well are forecast to slowly dissipate through the night leading to potential for a period of radiational cooling. The signal and confidence for a hard freeze is not as strong as it was 24 hours ago as this is due to a surface trough shunting the surface high out of the area quicker and allowing for more of a downsloping westerly wind to occur. Winds are also forecast to increase as well to around 15-20 mph sustained with gusts of 25-30 mph. Freeze Warning still remains due to around 70- 80% confidence in temperatures falling below 32 degrees but only a round 30-40% of a hard freeze at this time. Did expand the Freeze Warning from Hitchcock down through Wichita county after collaboration with surrounding offices and upgraded the remaining Freeze Watch to a Frost Advisory and expanded into Graham and Norton counties. However with the newer support of guidance turning winds to the southwest quicker does lower confidence of these hazards but with it being early May and budding or full leafed out vegetation it was more of an impact based issuance. Also am watching for some fog development overnight across Cheyenne (CO), Greeley and Wichita counties as some 850mb moisture advection remains through around 12Z. This also correlates with an area of lighter winds as well which would further help support fog formation. 12Z HREF also supports a 50% chance of visibility falling below 0.5 miles as well which goes well along with what 12Z NAM soundings suggest as well with a fairly deep low level saturation. With all of this opted to include patchy fog wording into the forecast.

Thursday, northwesterly synoptic flow is forecast to be in place for the area as warmer temperatures return to the higher as high temperatures in the 70s are forecast. Breezy winds gusting around 30 mph are forecast to occur across northwest portions of the area due to a localized 850mb jet developing during the afternoon. During the afternoon hours a NW to SE oriented shortwave within the flow is forecast to move through leading to some showers and thunderstorms mainly for areas along and north of Highway 36. Severe weather is unlikely but Corfidi upshear vectors suggests that there may be some potential for wind gusts of 50-60 mph with weaker effective bulk wind difference and DCAPE of 750-1000 j/kg. Confidence in severe weather is around 20-30% at this time and if it were to occur it would favor the 3pm-7pm MT time frame. With the recent prolonged precipitation not very concerned with blowing dust potential but still can't completely rule it out especially near source regions. Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to continue through the evening but currently thinking is that these would remain sub severe due to lessening instability.

Similar NW synoptic flow pattern remains in place on Friday with similar high temperatures forecast. 850mb moisture content is forecast to be high as well which leads me to believe that clouds may be bit more pronounced than what guidance is currently suggesting. Guidance shows increasing pressure heights which is currently forecast to lead to a dry forecast for the area. Breezy winds are forecast to be in place as well with sustained winds around 20 mph gusting 30-35 mph.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Saturday temperatures warm up to the low to mid 80s. The lows for the day remain in the 40s across the County Warning Area (CWA). Moving on to the winds, gusts reach up to 35 mph from the northwest. The main threat for Saturday is a shortwave disturbance that brings along a low pressure system with an associated front / dryline. The timing of this system looks to be Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Guidance shows there being a signal for storms and severe weather. Looking at MUCAPE, there are values in the 1000 J/kg range. In the warm sector , lapse rates are in the 7.5-8 C/km as well as dew points in the 50-60 degree range. Looking at sounding profiles they are currently showing a inverted v profile, which shows signs of winds being one of the main hazards. NCAR AI-NWP guidance also shows signals of severe weather in the CWA, which helps boost confidence. One thing to keep in mind, is there is a good amount of uncertainty with the timing and location of the system.

Sunday, highs cool down to the 70s and lows in the 40s. Winds remain calm throughout the day as well. For precipitation chances, the main focus would be on the system on Saturday and the timing on when it moves through the CWA and as we move into the new upper-level pattern on Monday.

On Monday, the upper level flow begins to transition into a ridge and will bring warmer temperatures. The high temperatures for the day will be in high 80s to low 90s, with lows in the low to mid 40s. There is a low chance (10-15%) of reaching 90 degrees. Winds look to be in the 20 mph range. However guidance does show some uncertainties with the probability of gusts above 25 mph is about 25- 50% depending on the scenario. One other thing to note unfortunately is the Relative Humidity (RH) values. Currently they are forecast to be in the low to mid teens. There is some uncertainty with how amplified the ridge becomes. Guidance has shown some possibilities of the ridge amplifying and also de-amplifying.

Tuesday, the highs are currently forecast in the low to mid 90s. If the ridge amplifies the probability of exceeding 90 degrees is about 30-50%. The low temperatures look to be in low 50s. Currently, RH values are trending to be in the teens. The winds are in the same scenario except with high confidence (30-60%) for seeing winds higher than 25 mph. The other concern for the winds is the location the NBM mainly shows the higher values over Yuma and Kit Carson Counties in CO. The LREF shows the higher values southeast portions of the CWA.

Wednesday temperatures remain to be warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low 50s. Wind gusts look to be in the 20- 30 mph range. One future feature to look at is a trough that begins to develop of the west coast of the US and could be our next system. This is seven days out so there is a solid amount of uncertainty and a lot can change.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 403 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Pesky and periodic MVFR ceilings continue to linger at GLD but are forecast to become less frequent for the start of this TAF period; however dissipating showers are forecast to remain in place initially. Winds are forecast to become more southwesterly as the night goes on and increase in strength with some gusts around 20-25 knots forecast especially for GLD. MCK looks to be more of a higher sustained wind according to forecast soundings. VFR conditions are currently forecast to be in place for the duration of this TAF period but will need to keep an eye out for some showers and storms especially for MCK towards the end of the period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028- 041-042. Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ003-004-015-016-029. CO...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MDT Thursday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079-080. Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ081.