textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A marginal risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening in Colorado and perhaps adjacent areas of Kansas through the early evening.

- Hot, dry and windy over the weekend with fire weather concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1151 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Current observations have mostly zonal upper flow over the area with a large surface low over the Panhandles region. Some showers and storms are also moving through Eastern Colorado, but will likely fall apart early in the night with most of the area in a more stable environment. With the cloud cover lingering, temperatures should generally stay in the 60s even with relatively light surface winds. Fog is likely to develop and already has been trying to do so in the late evening hours. However, the insulation from the cloud cover will likely lead to mist and/or patchy fog instead of dense fog for the most part. There might still be a few dense patches that develop though.

The cloud cover is forecast to linger through much of the morning hours, especially for eastern portions of the area. But as an upper trough develops in the Western CONUS and helps bring some ridging into the area, the cloud cover should give way to clearer skies. Temperatures should warm into the 80s across the area as long as the clouds give way. Otherwise, temperatures may cap in the 70s. Winds are forecast to get a bit breezier from the southeast through the day as low pressure develops west of the area again. Winds are forecast to sustain around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds should be highest in Eastern Colorado.

During the late afternoon and evening hours around 5-7 pm, showers and storms that are forecast to form along the Front Range should push into Eastern Colorado. They are forecast to move into an environment that could support marginally severe hail with MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, and effective shear around 35-40 kts. But the overall thought is that these storms will be moving further away from the forcing and better instability, leading them to weaken as they try to push into the area. With this, the current thought is that there may be one marginally severe storm in Eastern Colorado with a few accompanying weaker showers/storms. The rest of the area would then see little to no activity as long as an MCS doesn't develop and bring a cluster through the area. If this occurs, there would also be a threat for wind gusts around 60-75 mph, favoring southern portions of the area. Even if the cluster forms, the chance for rain accumulating above 2" is low, so have not elected for a flood watch at this time. The nighttime hours are then forecast to see a mixture of clouds and clear skies. Fog could form again as long as precipitation isn't lingering in the area.

Saturday, the upper trough is forecast to broaden over the Western CONUS and push the low pressure over the area. This is forecast to give the area southwesterly flow near the surface and warm air advection. With this temperatures should warm into the 90s and maybe even the 100s for those south of Highway 40. Winds are forecast to increase to around 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph as the pressure gradient increases. With drier air moving in with the southwest flow, this would cause concern for critical fire weather conditions. However, the recent rain have been reported to cause some green up and lower the overall fire hazard in the area. Still, be careful as increased fire danger may cause fires to be problematic. A few showers and storms may be able to form during the afternoon and evening hours with a dryline draped across the area around Highway 27 or Highway 25. Most of them would be sub-severe, but there is a low chance for strong severe storms as some guidance suggests a cap would be in place. If the cap breaks, then the environment could have around 3000-5000 J/kg of CAPE with effective shear around 40- 50kts. This would support supercells for eastern portions of the area if these strong storms form. Currently the chance for this looks to be less than 5%.

Sunday, the upper trough is forecast to rotate a bit in place and keep the surface low in place. This would give similar conditions to Saturday with temperatures nearing 100 and breezy winds from the south/southwest. However, ensemble spread charts show that the upper low and surface low may push more to the east. In this case, the drier and warm air would push into more of the area. This would also eliminate chances for storms in the area, though even the more westerly scenario would only have a 5-10% chance that storms form as more dry air pushes in either way.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 149 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be fairly consistent for our county warning area (CWA). Persistent southwest upper-level flow is forecast to be over the region through at least Thursday. This will result in warm temperatures and a windy work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s through Thursday. Expect the afternoons to be windy with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible. The western portion of the CWA will be on the higher side of wind gusts. Embedded shortwaves will bring afternoon precipitation chances each day, but Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are only around 25% each afternoon.

Fire weather conditions will be the big question for next week. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to fall into the teens across the western CWA accompanied by strong afternoon winds. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are forecast in the high to extreme category. However, given the recent substantial rainfall, fuels may remain unreceptive, which could mitigate the overall fire weather threat despite the hot, dry, and windy conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1151 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... IFR conditions are forecast through about 15-18Z as ceiling shave lower to 1500ft or less. Ceilings should continue to lower through the night with both sites likely to reach 200-400ft at time through the first 6 hours. Mist and fog are also moving through the area, with visibility generally around 1-3SM. After 15Z, conditions should steadily improve and become VFR by 18-21Z. The other thing to watch for is a less than 10% chance for storms between 00-06Z that would move in from the west if they can make it.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ090-091. NE...Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for NEZ079>081.