textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mild conditions today and tomorrow.

- Windy towards the mid and end part of the week. Blowing dust may be possible. Increasing potential for adverse fire weather.

UPDATE

Issued at 654 PM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

Some slight tweaks made to the forecast. Newest guidance has come in warmer for tomorrow so have increased temperatures for those out of the snow pack around 3-5 degrees. Have also increased wind gusts a little as well for the afternoon hours as newest forecast soundings show a little breezier 850mb level. Current forecast now has wind gusts of 20-25 mph. Overall though forecast remains on track for the next 24 hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

Synoptic Overview: An omega block, the center (ridge) of which will be anchored over the Pacific Coast and Intermountain West, will dominate the synoptic pattern over the CONUS in this period. The Tri-State Area will be situated at/near an inflection point in the synoptic pattern, between an amplifying west CONUS ridge and an amplifying east CONUS trough.. in NW to N flow aloft.

Today-Tonight: A broad lee trough will envelope the region as surface high pressure over the Central/Southern Plains shifts east toward the Central/Southern Mississippi River Valley. Expect a modest warming trend and light (~10-15 mph) westerly winds with highs in the mid-upper 50's *except* in far southern portions of the area (Greeley/Wichita counties), where diurnal heating/insolation will be attenuated by snow cover and highs may struggle to exceed the 30's. Expect overnight (Monday morning) lows generally in the 20's, except in Greeley/Wichita counties.. where lingering snow cover will facilitate stronger radiational cooling and temperatures may fall into the teens.

Mon-Mon night: With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern, expect sensible weather conditions similar to today.. albeit slightly warmer with a ~10-20 mph NW breeze. Locally cooler temperatures and light (5-10 mph) winds are likely where snow cover persists (i.e. Greeley and Wichita counties).

Tuesday: Upper level flow over the Rockies and High Plains (eastern periphery of the amplifying west CONUS ridge) will strengthen and shift to the NNW (Tue aft) and N (Tue night). In the lower levels, a broad (albeit increasingly west-east oriented) surface trough will persist through the afternoon, fostering sensible weather conditions broadly similar to Monday, albeit slightly warmer and breezier.. and with increasing mid- upper level cloud cover during the late afternoon. Expect highs in the lower-mid 60's and NW winds at 15-25 mph, breeziest along/north of Hwy 36) where forecast soundings suggest that vertical mixing could facilitate gusts to ~30-35 mph.. if insolation/mixing aren't substantially affected by increasing cloud cover (in advance of shortwave energy digging southward through the Dakotas) during the late afternoon.

Tuesday night: Shortwave energy digging southward through the Dakotas (Tue aft) will rapidly progress southward through eastern Nebraska (Tue eve) and eastern Kansas/Oklahoma (Tue night). Meanwhile, separate/distinct (and more robust) shortwave energy in Manitoba/Ontario will dig southward through the Northern Mississippi River Valley Tue night. Synoptically-driven surface pressure rises in the Dakotas will drive an inverted inverted surface ridge southward through the Tri-State area Tue eve (shortly after sunset, ~00-03Z Wed), the leading edge of which will manifest as a northerly wind shift and effective cold frontal passage. Guidance suggests that cold advection will be modest in nature, and that.. turbulent mixing assoc/w breezy north winds will, more than anything, hamper radiational cooling.. resulting in warmer temperatures (compared to previous nights) ranging from the mid 30's (north) to lower 40's (south) by sunrise Wed morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

The mid to end part of the week is forecast to be active with multiple upper troughs swinging through the Plains from the north. The interesting thing with guidance right now is that it mostly agrees on the timing, in spite of the multiple waves. The main uncertainty looks to deal with positioning (how far west) these troughs are and how deep they become. This would mainly lead to changes in temperatures and wind intensity. In spite of all these troughs and systems moving through, the air is currently forecast to be too dry for anything short of maybe some sprinkles/flurries or light showers.

Wednesday starts with the area in the wake of a cold front with higher pressure moving in. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s with strong winds around 20-30 mph. Currently the chance is less than 20% that wind gusts would climb above 58 mph and reach high wind criteria. Fire weather conditions are also unlikely with relative humidity forecast to be in the 30s. That being said, the winds alone will lead to increased fire danger.

Thursday, the next trough is forecast to swing through and bring another cold front through the area. If the front moves through early, temperatures will likely cap in the 30s and 40s. Otherwise, highs could reach the 50s with a few 60s mixed in. In the wake of the front, winds should increase again to around 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Similar to Wednesday, the chance for high wind criteria winds is less than 20% and critical fire weather conditions are not currently forecast. That being said, drier air should move in behind the front and increase the fire danger a bit.

Friday is currently forecast to be the worst of the days as the area remains on the back side of the trough. Depending on how far east it goes, the area may be under a tighter height and pressure gradient and allow for stronger winds. Chance for winds to hit high wind criteria are higher, around 30-40%. While drier air is forecast to move in, temperatures are forecast to be much cooler in the 30s and help keep relative humidity in the 20s. Still, like the prior days, fire danger will be increased even with critical conditions not forecast to be met. While possible on Wednesday and Thursday as well, Friday looks to have the best chance for some blowing dust as well with forecast lapse rates steeper near the surface, but capped a few km up in the atmosphere.

The weekend is where we start to get more uncertainty in timing and placement of features as there is a split on whether a reinforcing shot of cold air will move in. For now, near average conditions are forecast, but be prepared for potentially colder and windier conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1001 PM MST Sun Jan 11 2026

Confidence has increased for LLWS impacting the MCK terminal so have included in this TAF issuance. Latest RAP forecast sounding has backed off on the LLWS for GLD and is supported by the GLD VAD Wind Profiler so have opted to leave out for the GLD terminal. Westerly winds are forecast to shift to the WNW mid morning Monday with some gusts around 20-25 knots before shifting back to the west Monday evening. VFR conditions remain forecast with high clouds continuing to stream across the GLD terminal currently.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.