textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend over the next few days; 70s look to return Tuesday, groovy.

- Breezy to gusty conditions look to return Wednesday behind a cold front. This could lead to blowing dust or precipitation.

- Increased concern for fire weather conditions Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1252 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

Today, the ridge will remain place over the Great Basin, extending it's shield over the the Tri-State area, until tomorrow. This will promote mild and warming conditions through this timeframe. High temperatures look to be around 60s today with highs in the 70s tomorrow. Lows tonight and tomorrow are forecast to generally be in the 30s with some locations briefly dropping into the upper 20s.

Tuesday, with temperatures being so warm, RH values are forecast to drop into the teens across the Tri-State area. Eastern Colorado is expected to see the driest conditions, as RH values approach 10%. However, winds in this area look to remain below 17 kts, minimizing fire weather concerns. In the northeastern CWA, winds could gust up around 25 kts for a few hours tomorrow midday/early afternoon. RH values are forecast to remain in the upper teens, but with the stronger winds, lower dew points could mix down and lower RH values to critical conditions. Confidence in briefly critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon sits at around 40% with confidence in Red Flag conditions being about 25%.

Wednesday is when the ridge pattern looks to break as our next upper- level low pushes into the High Plains. Guidance is showing the 500 mb / 310K jet/front pushes south, over the CWA early in the morning. This is important, because this feature will cause mid and upper level clouds to form as it pushes colder air into the warm, moist air over the High Plains. These clouds introduce a major level of uncertainty. If the clouds stick around all day and we remain overcast, high temperatures will likely top out in the 60s, minimizing hazards later in the day. If we're only partly cloudy by the early afternoon, temperatures will largely be in the 70s, and we could see some late afternoon convection. After about 3Z, the vast majority of the instability will have been depleted, and stratiform rain may follow for the next few hours. Less than 0.05" of QPF is expected in the CWA from this system. If the sky is clear nearly all of the day, dust will be the biggest threat.

This low could push two surface fronts through the region, similar to last Tuesday, or one very strong front through. If there are two fronts, the first would be a warm front occurring around 18-21Z, shifting winds from the southwest to the west. This would lead to rapidly rising temperatures, but not a lot of wind. Additionally, this would reduce, but not eliminate, the potential for convection. The second front would be between 21-03Z, shifting winds to be from the north-northwest. This is the front that would have stronger winds, and could produce rain or blowing dust. If just one front occurs, it would likely occur around 20-01Z and be the cold front from the north.

If convection occurs, it would likely be focused along and north of U.S. 36 and be quickly moving to the southeast. GFS and NAMNest guidance show inverted V soundings, saturating around 700 mb. This may pose a threat for dry lightning or a dry micro-burst. The micro- burst potential is lessened by the fact that EBWD shear is around 45 kts, higher than ideal for dry micro-bursts.

If no precipitation occurs and 0-2 km lapse rates ahead/with the front climb into the 8.5-10 C/km as 30-50 kts 850 mb winds mix to the surface, blowing dust becomes a concern. Additionally, 2-2.5 km lapse rates behind the front look to largely remain under 6 C/km. This leads to some concern for blowing dust, including a haboob, as the front pushes through. However, with the cold front likely moving through close to sunset, the 0-2 km lapse rates may rapidly relax, reducing the impacts of blowing dust.

Confidence for convection is around 30%, confidence for less than 1 mile in blowing dust is 20-30%. There is also a 2% chance that both hazards occur in different parts of the CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

Conditions are cooler Thursday in the wake of a cold frontal passage. A ridge is attempting to build west of the Rocky Mountains, but a more zonal Polar Jet over the US/Canadian border is keeping the ridge fairly subdued. This places our region in a weak northwest flow. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s with lows in the 30s. Fire weather will be a concern for our Colorado counties Thursday afternoon. Winds are forecast from the west/northwest with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the mid teens. These will likely lower further in response to downsloping winds. This combination will likely create a few hours of critical fire weather conditions for our Colorado counties, particularly Yuma county. Winds will calm overnight, but there is little overnight recovery for our dewpoints, so fire weather continues to be a concern for Friday afternoon.

Friday, conditions further warm as a ridge propagates through our county warning area (CWA). High temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s. Afternoon RH values are in the low to mid teens for the majority of the CWA. Critical fire weather conditions are likely for the northwest portion of the CWA with wind gusts from 25-40 mph possible. Yuma county is likely to be on the highest end of these wind gusts.

Saturday, a cold frontal passage from the north will cool conditions. There is significant model disagreement on how much this cold frontal passage will cool down our region. The NBM 75-25th percentile difference in high temperatures is around 30 degrees. Our region will likely be on the warmer side. Current NBM probabilities are around 70% for temperatures greater than 45 degrees F. Currently, forecast highs are in the 50s with some areas in the low 60s. Saturday afternoon will be breezy for the CWA with gusts from 20-30 mph possible. RH values are beginning to recover from the week and are forecast in the 20s, so fire weather conditions are not a concern at this time.

Saturday overnight into Sunday has a chance for precipitation, but models are in disagreement on the speed and strength of the Polar and Subtropical Jets, creating uncertainty. The GFS has a speedier Subtropical Jet with a stronger jet streak that wants to merge with the Polar Jet. The ECMWF is overall more subdued with a weaker Polar Jet that stays segmented from the Subtropical Jet. The disagreement between models is reflected in the low and somewhat sporadic Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) for Sunday and Monday. PoPs range from 10-30% and are a bit sporadic throughout the CWA. Low confidence on forecast specifics due to significant model disagreement and how far out this event is.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1010 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Gusts from the south-southwest today around 20-25 kts are expected, but will be more random at KGLD. Tomorrow midday, KMCK is forecast to see northwesterly winds gusting around 25 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.