textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect relatively drier conditions and a warming trend through the weekend.

- Currently a low chance of afternoon strong to potentially severe storms Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1114 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Tonight, a few showers continue to develop west of the area and push east. They continue to move into an environment with MUCAPE less than 100 J/kg and with mid-level lapse rates of 6 C/km or less. With this, no showers have sustained themselves since entering the area. This could continue until a little after midnight when the upper trough axis shifts east and we lose the upper support for showers. The cloud cover is forecast to linger through most of the night though and keep temperatures generally around 50. Temperatures could lower closer to 40 should the clouds break long enough.

Saturday, the main trough axis is forecast to shift off to the northeast. But with broad upper troughing remaining in place across most of the Western United States, low pressure is forecast to be in place across the Front Range. This should allow winds to briefly hit 15-20 mph early in the day, especially for the western half of the area. But then lower back closer to 10-15 mph as the upper trough pushes away and the surface low broadens. Skies should be a mix of clouds and clear skies with some mid and higher level moisture moving through. Clouds should also develop during the early afternoon hours as guidance is hinting at some lower level moisture moving in from the south. A surface convergence zone is forecast to develop near the Colorado border and help spark some storms, mainly for NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. The storms north of I-70 will likely form in an environment that has less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and mid level lapse rates just below 8 C/km. With this, it is unlikely that large hail or tornadoes would form, but there could be a wind gust to 60 mph with downshear vectors around 50 kts. The showers/storms could push east through the area with 0-6km shear around 40kts sustaining them. For those south of I-70, if the lower level moisture moves in, they would have the aforementioned wind threat and a hail threat. MUCAPE is more likely to be around 1000- 2000 J/kg which may be just enough if effective shear is closer to 45 kts to produce larger hail. The max size looks to be around golf ball, with mid-level lapse rates still forecast to be below 8 C/km. All of this is also mainly dependent on storms staying more isolated and not competing. Additional cloud cover could quickly stabilize the area and choke off the storm threat further downstream. All of this leads to around a 5% chance that severe storms would occur. If we don't get any of the low level moisture advection, storms themselves may not even occur.

Tomorrow night, mostly clear skies are forecast once storms clear out. The main exception would be that if we got enough low level moisture advection for some low stratus clouds to develop. This would favor south of I-70. Temperatures should stay in the 50s for those with cloud cover, and in the upper 40s for those who clear after midnight.

Sunday, a weak cut-off low is forecast to begin pushing into the Western United States. As it does so, the low pressure is forecast to shift east into the area. With this, drier air should push in from the west and help develop a dryline that pushes through most of the area. This could lead to some concern for critical fire weather conditions during the day behind the dryline as relative humidity is forecast to drop into the teens. The saving grace is that the low may be so broad, that the winds don't get above 15-20 mph. For now, only a 10% chance that critical conditions are met for 3 hours. Otherwise, on top of temperatures warming back towards 90, the other condition of interest is storms firing up along the dryline. Storms could fire up during the mid afternoon hours if enough moisture lingers in the area. However, even the generally moist NAM 3k isn't giving much to work with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, 0-6km shear around 35-40 kts, and mid level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. All of these forecast parameters suggest a marginal chance for storms and severe storms. Guidance such as the RRFS gives the area less instability to work with, with lesser storm coverage as a consequence.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

***Synopsis***

Upper-level ridging looks to be overhead Monday morning, as troughing begins to dig into the Western United States. This pattern is favored to last through the long term period, establishing a broad surface low to the west of the forecast region. Southerly flow looks to be in place at least until Wednesday morning when a strong high sets up north of the Great Lakes. Surface winds look to primarily be out of the east Wednesday through the end of the period, as the surface low to the west and the surface high to the northeast battle for dominance.

***Monday/Tuesday***

Warm, wet conditions look to prevail Monday and Tuesday with southerly surface flow in place. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid 80s to lower 90s Monday, and upper 70s to upper 80s on Tuesday. Forecast guidance indicates a chance for showers to occur across the forecast region both days. LREF guidance suggests a mean of about 50-60 degree dew points across the forecast area, with mean surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) in the 1000-2000 J/kg range on Monday. 90th percentile CAPE values are upward of 4000 J/kg Monday, and around 2500 J/kg Tuesday. Convective activity is certainly in play both days, though the severe potential is forecast to remain low due to weak upper- level winds. Even LREF 90th percentile winds at 500-mb are 30-35 kts at best, which would indicate a low-shear environment. Still, considering the large amounts of instability that could be achieved in this environment, storms may briefly become severe. Even so, the NBM suggests the entire county warning area (CWA) has about a 25% chance or less to experience greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation either Monday or Tuesday. Based on this assessment, most activity is favored to limit to weak, localized thunderstorms, though some storms may produce severe hail and winds early in their life cycle. Confidence in a severe event either day is around 5%.

***Wednesday-Friday***

Conditions may cool slightly Wednesday through Friday as the surface high pressure to the northeast begins to impact the region. High temperatures all three days are forecast in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Wet conditions look to continue as well. LREF guidance indicates instability is favored to remain, as the surface high is not expected to erode surface dew points. There may be a convergence zone across Kansas as southerly flow to the south meets easterly flow in the area, which may improve the chances for precipitation. NBM 72 hr precipitation guidance suggests over a 50% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation from activity Wednesday through Friday combined. Considering that instability is present in addition to a potential convergence zone across Kansas, activity may be mixed between localized showers or thunderstorms, and areas of a bit more widespread precipitation. One additional note to keep an eye on is that the GFS and EC are consistent with precipitable water values at or greater than 0.9 inches across the forecast region Wednesday through Friday, in addition to an environment that has weak vertical wind shear. If this is the case, storms may be slow- moving and capable of producing flooding.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1114 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Cloud cover should generally remain above 10000ft, with occasional clear skies. Winds should be below 8 kts through at least 12Z, then picking up to be around 10-15 kts from the south/southeast through much of the day tomorrow. Be alert for storms potentially developing over the terminals between 20-02Z, though the chance is currently around 10%.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.