textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions will roughly be the same through Monday. Highs in the 80s/90s, lows in the 50s/60s, and winds around 10-20 mph for most of the area.

- Cooler temperatures and a few chances for rain are forecast Tuesday and through the rest of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1235 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Current observations have a large trough, with two embedded smaller lows, across the Western United States. The Plains meanwhile remains under southwest flow and slight ridging as the remnants of the hurricane from the gulf linger near the Southeastern United States and Ohio River Valley. This is forecast to lead to a stagnate pattern for both today and Monday with similar conditions both days across the area. High temperatures are forecast to both be in the 80s and lower 90s with winds from the south/southwest. Speeds are forecast to be around 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph for most of the area. Those along the Nebraska border are more likely to see winds around 5 to 15 mph with the surface low slowly moving in from the north. The chances for critical fire weather conditions have lowered as we are forecast to recover a little bit of low level moisture, enough for relative humidity to be forecast above 20%. One of the differences between today and tomorrow is that we should have mid to high level cloud cover over the area today. Tomorrow, a dry slot is forecast to move in and remove cloud cover early in the day. Precipitation is not expected either day with overall dry air in the area.

Tuesday's forecast is a little less clear. The upper trough in the west is forecast to begin making a good push east. However, ensemble spread charts are suggesting that the trough would lag west compared to what the deterministic guidance is showing. For the daytime hours, this will determine how much of the area cools down as the low pressure really starts pushing through the area along with an associated cold front. Currently, the forecast is for the front to push through the entire area during the day, capping highs in the 70s and low 80s. However, if the trough lags and slows the front, more of the area would warm into the 80s instead. Winds are also forecast to be on the lighter side with the low over the area. They may be slightly higher south of Highway 40 if the system lags.

One of the biggest differences is on if/where precipitation may form. With the low and front either near or over the area and the advancing trough, we should have more forcing to allow for a few showers and storms to develop. The best time looks to be between 3- 9pm, though placement may change things later. For now, it is unlikely that storms would be severe with the dry air keeping CAPE on the low side. Overnight, if the storms don't linger too long, temperatures should drop into the 40s for the northern half of the area on the backside of the front. This may be limited to just the Tri-State border area if the system either lags, or precipitation continues. Overnight precipitation would likely just be showers if it did occur.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 243 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

On Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level pattern is forecast to remain southwesterly and mover over the area from the Four Corners region. A shortwave is forecast to move over the area overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Guidance favors the shortwave to pass through before midnight Thursday morning. With this passage and mid- to low-level moisture being transported from the southwest, chances for widespread showers Wednesday and throughout Thursday are medium to high (50-75%) once the shortwave passes. There is higher confidence that showers will happen on Wednesday night.

On Friday and Saturday, it becomes a little less clear as the overall pattern shifts from southwesterly to northwesterly flow. As of now, the upper-level trough pattern is forecast to merge with the secondary trough system to the north of the area and slides east. With that being said, there is medium confidence (45%) that this will lead to a dry cold front to pass through the area from the northwest Friday. Temperatures are expected to be in the 50s and slightly build back up into the 60s on Saturday with both days having scattered clouds. There are hints that guidance is favoring a slower trough progression, keeping it within the area. This may cause slightly more warmer temperatures for each day being roughly 10 degrees more.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 505 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period, with cloud cover generally above 15000ft passing over the area. Winds have become a bit lighter around 5-15 kts and should stay that way through most of the day. However, gusts to 25-30 kts are possible. Low level wind shear is expected to develop again with 35-45 kt winds forecast around 300-500 ft after 02Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.