textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average highs expected late this week through early next week.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions forecast Saturday through Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1251 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

We start off this morning with a strong ridge over the Great Basin, putting us in northwesterly flow aloft. This will create a brief blocking pattern as the ridge moves towards the Great Plains, allowing temperatures to be unseasonably warm today and reducing precipitation chances to 0 for the rest of the short-term.

Today, as a dry 850 mb trough moves over the Great Plains, a moderate pressure gradient will set up across the Northern High Plains. This will produce an 850 mb LLJ of around 30-45 kts early this morning, but will weaken throughout the day. While we could see some 20-25 kts gusts early this morning, we will remain decoupled from the strongest winds in the LLJ. As the day progresses and the surface warms, we can expect to mix into the LLJ. However, by that time, the 850 mb flow will be more in the 25-35 kts range, which would allow similarly strong gusts to mix to the surface. This does create some elevated fire weather concerns, as RH values will be around 20-25% in eastern Colorado. However, due to dew points being so high, critical fire weather conditions are not likely.

Temperatures across northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska are a bit of a question today. On the one hand, CAMs and CAM based ensembles, including REFS and HREF, show the the PBL remaining well mixed throughout the day, preventing temperatures at the surface from climbing above about 69 degrees. Alternatively, NBM 10th percent (colder percentage) shows highs around 69 in the east while the 50th percent has low 70s. Likely, the NBM is not accounting for the PBL to remain mixed and has the solar heating kicking temperatures up higher. With the mixing expected to be best in the western half of the CWA and knowing a brief lull in the winds would allow temperatures to quickly warm, I've bumped maximum temperatures up to be mostly around 66-70 across the CWA.

Tonight into tomorrow afternoon, the 500 mb ridge moves over the Rockies, with the axis looking to be over the CWA around 6Z Saturday. This will allow another shortwave trough to move through the 850 mb flow tonight before a high descends out of the northern Rockies tomorrow. The ever increasing pressure will work to prevent any cloud cover, and low temperatures tonight are forecast to cool into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Tomorrow, as the 850 mb high moves out of the Rockies and over the Northern Plains, we can expect a weak backdoor cold front. This will give us northeasterly flow in the low levels and surface during the day tomorrow, keeping temperatures in low to mid 60s. Tomorrow night, similar to tonight, we have pretty clear skies. With the cooler temperatures during the day, overnight temperatures will not have much issue cooling below freezing.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

A split flow still looks to be present in the Western United States Saturday morning. Northwesterly flow as a byproduct of this pattern is forecast to be in place across the Northern and Eastern United States, allowing for an embedded shortwave trough to impact the forecast area on Saturday. An attendant surface low pressure to this trough is forecasted to be north-northwest of the CWA during the morning hours, which would allow southerly surface flow across most of the area. A southward extending cold front from the low looks to slowly move eastward throughout the day, and could allow for drier conditions through portions of the afternoon. RH values may drop into the upper-teens to mid-20s by mid afternoon for portions of Eastern Colorado. Locally critical fire weather could be a concern for this area, as wind gusts Saturday afternoon are forecast to reach the 25-30 mph range. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed currently stands at about 10%, as RH values still need to drop a few more points from the current forecast. High temperatures Saturday are currently forecast to reach the mid to upper-60s, with lows in the low to mid-30s overnight.

Warm and dry conditions are forecasted to continue Sunday and Monday. Westerly to southwesterly surface winds are currently favored through Monday afternoon, which could promote RH values as low as the mid teens to low-20s across the CWA. Wind gusts both days look to max out around 15-20 mph, with the fastest gusts in Eastern Colorado. Ensemble guidance suggests that only about a 10-15% chance exists for winds gusts to meet locally critical fire weather criteria. Confidence in a warning being needed for either day is currently around 5-10%. High temperatures are currently forecasted in the mid to upper-60s Sunday, and in the upper-60s to low-70s Monday, with temperatures near the higher end of these ranges most likely in Northwest Kansas.

A cold front looks to pass through the forecast area Monday night, with northerly to northwesterly surface winds forecasted across the region by Tuesday morning. High temperatures are currently forecast in the lower to upper-50s across the CWA, with portions of Northeast Colorado and Southwest Nebraska experiencing the coldest temperatures.

Colder conditions look to be in place for the remainder of the forecast period as upper level troughing sets up across the Western United States. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the upper-40s to low-50s, and mid to upper-40s respectively, with lows in the low to mid-20s. Additionally, NBM guidance suggests that the forecast area could begin to experience the effects of a winter system as early as late Tuesday afternoon, though timing and coverage is still uncertain. Light snowfall is possible from this system anywhere in the CWA between Tuesday afternoon and the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 330 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period for both KGLD and KMCK. Both sites will be experiencing northwesterly gusts generally in the 20-30 kts range today, although KGLD could see some gusts up to 35 kts. At KMCK, before the winds fully mix to the surface this morning, LLWS is expected at 200-400 feet AGL from the north at 35-45 kts. After 6Z tonight, similar, but weaker, LLWS is forecast to return to KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.