textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- On Monday, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of northwest Kansas, mainly south and east of Goodland where warm temperatures, low humidity and southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth during the afternoon and early evening.

- On Tuesday, warm temperatures, low humidity (15-20%) and relatively stronger southwest winds at 25-35 mph gusting to 45 mph may lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The Red Flag Warning previously in effect for portions of the area today (Sunday April 12) was cancelled at 730 pm MDT. Light ESE to S winds will prevail this evening and overnight.

In coordination with NWS Hastings, the Fire Weather Watch in effect for Norton, Sheridan and Graham counties on Monday April 13 has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Large scale synoptic troughing continues keeping our southwesterly flow resulting in warm temperatures continuing for today as high temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 70s across eastern Colorado and the mid 80s further to the east. Weak surface troughing is also in place across the area which is forecast to eventually turn into a low pressure system across northeast Colorado during the afternoon. When this occurs the 850mb wind field is forecast to respond to this developing low and increase winds to the south of the low where wind gusts of 25-35 mph are forecast to occur. This is where the current Red Flag Warning is at. Based on the current position of the low am a little worried about the development of the winds for Kit Carson, Sherman, Thomas and Logan counties. Will leave the warning as is for now but may need to be ended early for those counties if the winds do not materialize.

Northern portions of the area are forecast to see an increase in 700- 500mb moisture during the afternoon which may yield some high based showers. 12Z RAP soundings do show around 25-75 j/kg of MUCAPE along with steep lapse rates which may be able to yield an isolated dry lightning strike so something to be aware of. Also really watching the dryline across the east as the NAM and WRF-NSSL keep the dryline retreated across Graham and Norton counties. Am seeing some divergent flow aloft in both the 700mb and 500mb wind fields across the same area which may be enough to overcome overall nebulous forcing and a CAP where an isolated storm may be able to develop. Should this occur then hail around golf balls and wind gusts to 70 mph would occur between 4-6pm CT. This is a highly conditional threat for the area with confidence only around 15% in occurrence.

Monday, a broad low is forecast to be across the area. Synoptic troughing is forecast to continue as well with temperatures similar to today but overall stronger 850mb wind field across southern and eastern portions of the area. Critical fire weather conditions are a concern across Greeley, Wichita, Logan, Gove, Sheridan and Graham counties. Norton county is a bit more iffy especially if the wind field sets up a little further south but still am getting around 50% probabilities of wind gusts of 30 mph according to the 12Z HREF so will include in the Fire Weather Watch. With mixing heights around 10,000-12,000 feet wind gusts of 30-35 knots are possible along with high confidence in at least low teen humidity values. Single digit humidity values are possible as well if the deeper mixing can bring down lower dew points which is being seen in the typically more moist biased 12Z NAM. There could be 1 or 2 hours of critical conditions across eastern Colorado Monday afternoon as well currently given how a high pressure system nudging in from the north am a bit worried about the winds not being there long duration to warrant a fire weather product at this time. This is supported as well by the 12Z HREF with around 20-30 probabilities of 25 mph or higher wind gusts in Cheyenne county Colorado.

Tuesday, a developing low pressure system across eastern Colorado is forecast to lead to gusty winds up to 45 mph along and south of Interstate 70 where critical fire weather again will be a concern with currently the highest confidence across Greeley and Wichita counties. I did contemplate yet another Fire Weather Watch but to avoid confusion with 3 consecutive days of fire weather products plus a concern of the low setting up a bit further south which is seen the ECMWF ensemble Mean and the ECMWF-AI supporting this as well am opting to hold off until confidence is a little higher. Currently confidence multiple hours of critical conditions for at least those two counties is around 35-45%. If the low were to set up further north which is what the deterministic 12Z GFS and NAM suggest then multiple hours of critical conditions could be a bit more widespread and longer lived across the area. On the back end of the low, moisture is forecast to wraparound high based thunderstorms may develop. Wind gusts up to 60 mph may be possible as well with these with nearly 55 knot winds in the 500mb layer. I would be a bit more concerned for dry microbursts but with EBWD around 25-30 knots do have concerns that there may be too much shear for this to occur. High temperatures for the day remain forecas in the low 70s to the northwest and mid 80s to the east but if the low could set up further south then another 5-10 degrees could potentially get knocked off in future forecasts. &&

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Shortwave trough axis will be traversing the area on Wednesday with widely scattered light rain showers in the wraparound. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures behind the associated cold front, northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph and afternoon relative humidity in the teens will combine for another possible day of critical fire weather. Main concern would be western and especially southwestern areas where humidity will be lowest (Colorado/Kansas border area). On Thursday will be between systems with a southwest flow aloft. Models not showing any embedded waves at this time so should be dry. The downsloping winds will dry out the low levels and humidity is forecast to drop to near 10% in the entire area. There is also a modest increase in wind speeds with gusts of 25-35 mph, highest south of Interstate 70. So, critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible. Next upper trough will be approaching the Rockies Thursday night and emerge onto the adjacent plains on Friday. Associated surface cold front will be traversing the forecast area at that time. Currently looks to be a dry front with the lead dry line sweeping the deeper moisture and precipitation well east of the area. Ahead of the front critical fire weather conditions will once again be possible. Operational models show the front bisecting the area at 18z lying roughly along Interstate 70, continuing south through the afternoon. North winds will be gusting 35-45 mph behind the front. Wraparound precipitation, in the form of snow, will develop in northeast Colorado Friday afternoon and then move into the area Friday night, but weakening as the upper support moves out. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensembles show accumulations of less than one inch. Any snow will be accompanied by gusty north winds of 25-35 mph. May see some lingering light rain/snow showers into Saturday, but not expecting anything significant and would not be surprised if it was dry. North winds continue to be gusty at 35-45 mph, but relative humidity is forecast to stay above 20% so may get a respite from the fire weather. Unfortunately that may not be the case for Sunday with gusty south winds, milder temperatures and lower humidity.

Temperature trends for the period will start above normal on Wednesday (70s), then much above normal on Thursday (80s), near normal on Friday north of the front (50s and 60s) but above normal ahead of it (70s and 80s), below normal on Saturday (50s), and slightly above normal on Sunday (60s). Freezing temperatures will be possible both Saturday and Sunday mornings with lows in the 20s, otherwise lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals.. with cloud cover confined to cirrus at or above ~15,000 ft AGL. Light ESE to S winds will prevail through late Monday morning. Winds will veer to the WSW and increase to 15-20 knots during the early to mid afternoon. Winds will become light and variable Monday evening, after sunset, as a broad low pressure system in Colorado tracks eastward over the Tri-State Area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Update at 900 PM MDT: In coordination with NWS Hastings, the Fire Weather Watch in effect for Norton, Sheridan and Graham counties on Monday April 13 has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.

Fire weather is unfortunately forecast to continue for the majority of the upcoming week. The main focus of this discussion is for focusing on Monday and Tuesday.

The strongest winds for Monday are currently favored across Wichita, southeast Logan and into Gove county where wind gusts around 40 mph are forecast to occur. If a trough doesn't push through enough then the strongest winds may expand a bit further to the north and the fire weather products may need to be expanded a little further northwest. Confidence was high enough to go ahead and issue a Red Flag Warning for Greeley, Wichita, Logan and Gove counties based on a strong signal for wind gusts over 25 mph to occur for the duration of the afternoon. There was some contemplation for Cheyenne county Colorado to be placed in a fire weather product as well but the source of the winds for Cheyenne county look to be more diurnally mixed based than the synoptically forced due tot he surface trough like the Kansas counties. The mixing winds for Cheyenne county also did appear to be a little more marginal based on forecast soundings which further lowered confidence in occurrence and if the 3 hours needed for a Red Flag Warning could be met.

For Tuesday, There was strong consideration for the issuance of another Fire Weather Watch for at least Greeley and Wichita counties for Tuesday. There does still remain discrepancies with where the low pressure system will set up which will dictate if and when and where fire weather concerns will occur. If the low sets up further to the north then fire weather may be a bit more widespread, longer lived and even potentially more impactful as winds could be stronger possibly around 50 mph. If the low sets up further to the south which is where my confidence is currently favoring then winds across southern areas would be more light and variable plus there could be a better potential for showers and storms across the north. Fire starts from lightning may also become a concern as well if the storms do occur.

Fire weather concerns do appear to continue through the remainder of the work week with Thursday potentially being another widespread and prolonged fire weather event with humidity already forecast in the upper single digits to low teens for humidity and winds forecast around 30 mph.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042. CO...None. NE...None.