textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect for eastern Colorado this afternoon, where humidity in the low teens and wind gusts up to ~35 mph are expected.

- A few northerly wind gusts ~45 to 55 mph possible during a cold frontal passage this evening, mainly in eastern CO.

- Conditional potential for a brief severe storm in far eastern portions of the area on Saturday, mainly in Norton, Graham and Gove counties. - A greater portion of the area will see a conditional potential for severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards, should severe storms develop.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

High pressure is pushing in from the west and is forecast to lead to light winds across the area overnight. With dew points in place would not be surprised if some freezing temperatures could occur across eastern Colorado, especially across the highest elevations. Friday, the surface high is forecast to move to the east across the area. Across Colorado a surface low is forecast to develop and turn winds to the southwest across the Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO). This is where the most likely area to see several hours of critical fire weather lies. With mixing heights of 10,000-13,000 feet AGL there should be no issue in winds mixing down and overlapping A Red Flag Warning has been issued for those 3 counties as humidity is forecast to fall into the low teens and wind gusts up to 30 mph are forecast to occur. An hour or two of critical conditions is forecast to occur from Dundy down through Wallace county as the low deepens a tighter pressure gradient develops after 21Z. I opted to not issue for these counties due to confidence being around 60% in 3 or more hours occurring. If the low can set up a little further east and winds become more southwesterly sooner then a short lead time warning may be needed as dry air would intrude quicker. During the late afternoon some weak 500mb vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the area associated with weak shortwaves. Virga is possible but with a deep layer of dry air no precipitation is forecast to make it to the surface. 00Z forecast soundings indicate a few hundred joules and steep lapse rates indicating that some dry lightning strikes can't be ruled out.

A cold front is forecast to move through during the mid to late evening and shift winds to the north. Wind gusts of 40-55 mph are most likely with mixing heights around 1000 feet AGL via along with sustained winds of 25-35 mph but there is a 20% chance of isolated wind gusts around 60 mph as well. If virga is in place then the concern for 60+ mph wind gusts mixing down with the front with increase as well. This would also raise the concern for blowing dust and localized dust storms similar to what occurred on Thursday; although the impacts would be lesser due to the time of the day.

Into the day Saturday, behind the front strong signal for stratus is seen for the morning hours and increasing low level omega which may lead to some light rain showers across the area during the morning and into the early afternoon hours. Currently the favored area for light rain is across the north and eastern portions of the area. A chillier day is forecast for Saturday with highs in the upper 50s to the upper 60s across the south. If cloud cover is thick enough then high temperatures may still be 5-10 degrees to warm. Moisture return is then forecast to occur Saturday evening and again increase rainfall chances as winds turn more easterly due to the positioning of a surface low. The better potential for rainfall looks to occur during the evening and overnight hours. There is small and conditional chance for a severe storm or two mainly along and east of a Decatur to Gove county line as synoptic forcing increases ahead of a larger scale trough. A lot of mesoscale factors such as dry line location and if earlier day rainfall and stratus potential can interfere with the environment. Should a storm develop large hail and damaging winds would be the main concerns with Mixed layer CAPE ranging from 900-1600 j/kg dependent on the quality of moisture present, steep lapse rates and surface-6km shear around 35- 45 knots which would be supportive for severe weather. Straight line hodographs are also seen as well which would support splitting of cells. Am noticing a CAP around 700mb which would limit coverage and if storms even occur at all. Confidence in storms forming is around 10% and severe weather is less than 5% currently. ECMWf does indicate a weak shortwave in the area which would serve as lift but is currently the outlier at this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Starting off the work week, a surface low is forecast to set up in eastern Kansas and there is a closed low developing off the coast of California. Our region is in a mostly southwest upper-level flow. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s with lows in the 30s. As the day progresses, several embedded shortwaves pass through the region bringing afternoon chances for precipitation. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 30-40% for the western and northern portions of the county warning area (CWA). Rain showers are most likely, but some weak instability could initiate a couple thunderstorms. Whether storms form or not, winds will be a concern Monday as a jet streak sets up over our CWA. Winds are forecast from the north/northwest with gusts of 25-40 mph possible north of the I- 70 corridor.

Tuesday, southwest flow aloft remains in place over the region with a jet streak overhead. The forecast remains fairly consistent from yesterday. Wind gusts are forecast around 30 mph for the northwest CWA and relative humidity values (RH) are forecast in the 20s. The strongest wind gusts do not align with the lowest RH values, so fire weather concerns are minimal for Tuesday.

Precipitation chances remain for the northwest CWA Tuesday afternoon with PoPs ranging from 30-50% due to passing shortwaves and jet support aloft. Low confidence on specific hazards at this time, but sporadic, weak CAPE present in the ECMWF and GFS for eastern Colorado. If a thunderstorm is able to form, hail could be possible.

Wednesday on, we have potential for a more active pattern. Expect afternoon and evening chances for showers and thunderstorms as the CWA remains under southwest flow aloft with jet support and passing shortwaves.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight. MVFR to IFR ceilings (~1,000 ft AGL) are anticipated to rapidly develop in the wake of a cold frontal passage around sunrise (~11-14Z Sat) and persist through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period. S winds will increase to 20-30 knots by mid-afternoon (~21Z) and remain breezy well into the evening. Winds will weaken and become variable for a period overnight (beginning ~06Z) as a surface low/trough in CO extends eastward over northwest KS. Light/ variable winds are likely to be short-lived, persisting a few hours at most. Winds will shift to the N and increase to 15-25 knots an hour or two on either side of sunrise (~11-14Z Sat) and remain breezy through the morning.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight. MVFR to IFR ceilings (~1,000 ft AGL) are anticipated to rapidly develop in the wake of a cold frontal passage around sunrise (~11-13Z Sat) and persist through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period. ENE-E winds will shift to the S and increase to 15-25 knots by mid- afternoon (~21Z) and further strengthen to 20-25 knots with gusts to ~35 knots during the late afternoon. Winds will decrease to 15-25 knots late this evening (~03Z) and become light/variable ~06Z as a surface low/trough in CO extends eastward over northwest KS/southwest NE. Light/variable winds are likely to be short-lived, persisting a few hours at most. Winds will shift to the N or NE and increase to 15-25 knots an hour or two on either side of sunrise (~11-14Z Sat) and remain breezy through the morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. NE...None.