textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry and breezy over the weekend and into early next week.

- Low chance for a severe thunderstorm or two today, favoring Southwest Nebraska.

- Low confidence in thunderstorm development and severe risk for Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Dry line will continue to gradually sharpen this afternoon with southwest winds in Colorado and dew points falling into the 30s while further east, southeast winds persist with dew points in the 60s. CAMs suggest isolated convection will develop on the dry line in northeast Colorado near Julesburg as a subtle shortwave embedded in the southwest flow moves through. The environment east of the dry line will be very unstable with 3000-4000 j/kg of SBCAPE along with 40-50 kts of 0-6 km shear. While the mean flow will generally take storms northeast, any supercell that develops will move more easterly, potentially into the far northern portion of the forecast area (north of Highway 34). Storm coverage will be relatively sparse with the weak forcing, but can't completely rule out a risk for large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado if a storm manages to move into the area. The risk should end fairly early at around 03z.

On Sunday, the dry line sets up east of Highway 83 in the afternoon. Despite favorable instability and shear, forcing appears to be lacking with the main flow aloft displaced to the northwest. With a downsloping wind component across the area temperatures will warm into the 90s with a few spots potentially in triple digits.

Monday, the main upper trough axis remains entrenched over the Great Basin, but a shortwave will lift out across northern Colorado and Wyoming in the afternoon. THe dry line remains across eastern areas, possibly retreating to the west just a bit. 3-km NAM does initiate convection on the dry line in the afternoon, but other CAMs do not. Instability east of the dry line would still be favorable for at least some severe threat, but deep layer shear is only around 20-30 kts. Confidence is low at this time that convection will initiate due to weak forcing and capping CIN forecast at -50 to -100 j/kg along and east of the dry line. Temperatures remain warm in the mid to upper 90s.

Tuesday presents a similar scenario. RRFS suggests the dry line will retreat as far west as the Colorado and Kansas border area by the afternoon with the NBM also showing southeast winds and higher dew points. RRFS shows more of pronounced shortwave in the southwest flow aloft and initiates convection in the area after 21z. The environment would be supportive of a severe threat with up to 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 40 kts of deep layer shear, strongest in the northwest half of the area. Still a few days out and unsure how the other CAMs will handle it, but there is at least some hints of a severe risk on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures continue in the 90s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 159 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Hot, dry, and windy weather persist through the long term forecast period. Wednesday, our region is forecast to be in a southwest upper- level flow with a jet streak overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s for the county warning area (CWA). Expect a windy Wednesday for our Colorado counties with wind gusts up to 40 mph possible. A shortwave passage will bring a slight chance of precipitation Wednesday afternoon, but Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are only around 15% for the northeast CWA. Instability is weak, so any storms that form will likely be isolated and sub-severe with small hail and strong winds as the primary hazards.

Thursday through Saturday, conditions continue to be hot, dry, and windy with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s. Wind gusts of 20 to 45 mph are expected, with the strongest winds forecast across the western CWA.

While the meteorological conditions are conducive for fire weather, how receptive fuels will be is the big question. Wednesday through Saturday, relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to fall into the teens across the western CWA accompanied by strong afternoon winds. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are forecast in the high to extreme category. However, given the recent substantial rainfall, fuels may remain unreceptive, which could mitigate the overall fire weather threat despite the hot, dry, and windy conditions. We will have to watch how much fuels dry out over the weekend to better determine fire weather potential for next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1109 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. South to southwesterly surface winds will gust up to 25 kts at times with occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.