textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Relatively breezy conditions expected through mid-week.

- Monday will be hot ahead of a cold front that brings much cooler conditions for Tuesday-Wednesday. Portions of the area may see lows dip into the upper 40s Wednesday morning.

- Scattered strong storms may develop along this front Monday evening. Gusty winds would be the primary threat.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Overview: Modest unidirectional /westerly/ flow aloft will weaken over the weekend as the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies shifts northward (over the Northern Plains) in response to an amplifying ridge over the Southern Plains.

Today-Tonight: Surface pressure rises over the Canadian Prairies, associated with height rises / synoptic subsidence in the wake of an upper level trough progressing east across Saskatchewan and Manitoba.. augmented by outflow from scattered high based convection over portions of southeast WY, northern CO and the NE Panhandle and a linear mesoscale convective system over south central and southeast NE.. will propel an inverted surface ridge southward through the Tri-State Area this morning, the leading edge of which will manifest as a northeasterly wind shift and effective cold frontal passage prior to sunrise (~08-12Z). Expect cooler temperatures in the wake of the front, with highs ranging from the mid 70's (north) to lower 80's (south). If low stratus develops after the frontal passage, as forecast soundings from current and recent runs of the HRRR and RAP suggest, highs could easily be several degrees cooler, especially if status persists into the afternoon. Low confidence in stratus development, coverage and duration. Expect Sunday morning lows ranging from the mid 50's to lower 60's. While convection is not anticipated during the day, guidance suggests that strengthening low-level (850 mb) warm advection over southwest and south central Kansas could facilitate the development of elevated convection in eastern portions of the area late this evening, mainly along/south of I-70 in Logan and Gove counties ~03-06Z. A variety of factors may influence the evolution of the 850 mb height/temperature pattern today.. e.g. morning convection in central-eastern KS, whether or not low stratus develops over portions of western KS (and if so, to what extent/duration).. which, in turn, may influence the location and magnitude of low-level warm advection tonight. Increased pattern complexity equals increased uncertainty.. decreasing forecast confidence.

Sun-Sun night: Expect a warming trend as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Southern Plains and surface high pressure over the Dakotas/Northern Plains (and associated surface ridge extending southward into the Central Plains) shifts east toward the Mississippi River Valley, though.. early morning convection and low ceilings in central KS may temporarily reinforce the surface ridge and delay airmass modification.. resulting in a thermal gradient over far northeast portions of the Goodland CWA. Expect highs ranging from ~80F (portions of Red Willow/ Norton counties) to upper 80's and lower 90's elsewhere, warmest south of I-70 near the KS-CO border. Precipitation is presently not anticipated.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 257 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The new work week will start off on the hot and breezy side as the area remains sandwiched between a potent (but progressive) shortwave trough over the northern Rockies and a strong upper ridge over the Deep South. Deepening lee troughing, in response to the N Rockies trough, will lead to moderately breezy southerly winds and efficient mixing of an impressive late summer low level thermal ridge. Latest NBM blend calls for high temperatures in the 90s across the entire area. Far S/SE zones may be even warmer given exceedance values of 100 degrees in the 15-25 percent range. Another caveat to keep an eye on will be the timing/placement of a cold front associated with aforementioned trough. General consensus is that this front should remain near or just N of the KS/NE state line through peak heating, but any minor trends one way or another could lead to forecast changes in these areas. Fire weather shouldn't become a concern as latest RH forecasts generally keep values at or above 25%. Also, wind speeds may actually decrease through the afternoon (esp. central and northern zones) with closer proximity to the approaching cold front.

Main question/potential weather impact for Monday evening and overnight will be if deep convection can develop along the cold front. If storms can indeed form, conceptual model would support high-based convection with potential to tap into hot/deeply mixed boundary layer (inverted-v profiles) and produce strong/severe wind gusts. Moderately steep mid level lapse rates (~7.5 C/km), and hints of locally enhanced deep layer shear immediately along the boundary (35-45kts?) could also support a large hail threat. It's not a forgone conclusion that everyone will see storms/rain, though, as moisture/instability will be lacking (at least initially) and best upper forcing will slide across the Dakotas...but this does look to be our next best chance for precipitation (60-80%).

Tuesday will be significantly cooler behind the front as latest ensembles show 25th to 75th percentile temperatures mainly in the 70s. Exception could be the far S/SE that still manage to warm into the lower 80s. Regardless...solid 20-25 degrees cooler than Monday. Cooler temperatures will also come with a refreshing NE breeze. With drier air may come a brief taste of 40s for esp. N/NW zones Wednesday AM. High pressure nosing in from the N. Plains should keep mild temperatures going through midweek, but would expect some gradual air mass modification back to near or just above normal for the end of the week.

Extended periods are littered with off an on POPs, though confidence in any given period getting precipitation is low. The area will be located on the western side of a flattened upper ridge that's centered over the Deep South. This will promote advection of monsoonal upper moisture and at least a few weak perturbations in SW upper flow. These could support development of late afternoon convection along the Front Range that shifts E during the evening, but again, confidence is low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

GLD: Low confidence in ceilings for much of the TAF period. Current and recent runs of the HRRR and RAP continue to suggest a potential for IFR ceilings to develop in the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning, and that MVFR ceilings could persist through the remainder of the morning (possibly into the afternoon). -If- MVFR ceilings develop and persist through much of the day, improvement during the late afternoon would likely be short-lived, with ceilings quickly deteriorating to IFR after sunset. Breezy (15-20 G 25 KT) northeasterly winds will prevail through mid-morning, decreasing to 10-15 knots during the late morning to early afternoon, veering to the E during the late afternoon and ESE or SE during the evening.

MCK: Low confidence in ceilings for much of the TAF period. Current and recent runs of the HRRR and RAP continue to suggest that MVFR ceilings (2000-3000 ft AGL) may develop in the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning, and that MVFR ceilings could persist through the remainder of the morning (possibly into the afternoon), though.. the strongest signal for stratus development is generally south of the McCook terminal. Breezy (15-20 G 25 KT) northeasterly winds will prevail through mid- morning, decreasing to 10-15 knots during the late morning to early afternoon, veering to the E during the late afternoon and ESE or SE during the evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.