textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing potential for high wind gusts, explosive fire growth, and dust storm conditions occurring Thursday.

- Critical fire weather conditions may occur Friday afternoon for the west half of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 254 PM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows zonal flow over the Great Basin, with a trough over the Southern Plains and a closed low over the Great Lakes. Patches of cloud cover were moving through the upper level flow. At the surface very low dew points (down to the 5th percentile of the data spectrum) had occurred over the forecast area; much lower than anticipated. After a few hours the dew points have begun to climb, and cloud cover is moving in from the west. As such, critical fire weather should not occur due to the duration of these conditions not meeting criteria before relative humidity increases.

Tonight a weak cold front moves through. However the environment will be quite dry, so am not expecting any more than a few clouds with the passage.

Wednesday winds will turn to the south, bringing in warm air advection. This will cause highs to be warmer than otherwise given the cold front passage. Southerly winds may be similar to today. Some of the model data suggests wind gusts stronger than today. However there will be cloud cover, similar to today, which should prevent the winds from reaching the speeds they would without cloud cover.

Wednesday night a strong cold front is forecast to move through the forecast area. This front will be associated with an upper level short wave trough moving over the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. As the front moves through the strong low level cold air advection should form an inversion (based on the latest data). This will prevent the high winds directly behind the front from mixing to the ground. However, have seen many strong cold fronts come through during the night that have deep enough cold air advection to erode any inversion, thus allowing higher winds to mix down during the night. At the same time, high winds (gusts of 60 MPH+) during the night are quite rare. With this in mind, am thinking the current wind forecast for the night is too low, as there will be some mixing of the stronger winds to the ground, but will remain below high wind criteria. Confidence for high winds Wednesday night is 30%. The best time to see high wind gusts during the night will be along the front.

Thursday morning the inversion will erode as temperatures warm. The strong cold air advection will help and hinder the winds from mixing down. It will help the winds mix down by eroding the inversion faster than if there were no cold air advection, but the cold air advection will also delay how quickly temperatures warm in the morning. The peak wind speeds will occur between 8 am and noon local time. After one or two in the afternoon the winds will decline, becoming light by sunset. About this time a secondary cold front moves in, providing a reinforcing round of cold air.

Due to the loose soil, am 80% confident there will be zero visibility in the blowing dust somewhere in the forecast area. Lapse rates continue to be favorable for blowing dust. Do not foresee a wall of dust, but more likely localized corridors of blowing dust leading to dust storm conditions. The blowing dust threat should end mid afternoon as the secondary cold front moves in, making lapse rates more stable for blowing dust.

Highs for Thursday may occur before sunrise due to the continued cold air advection. During the day temperatures will either be near steady or falling.

Ensemble data is not very optimistic (less than 10% probability for gusts over 50 MPH) with the wind gust potential. Looking at the wind data instead of probabilities shows the high end wind gust potential to be 70-80 MPH, however the more likely wind gust range will be 60- 70 MPH. This is a very favorable pattern for high winds to occur for the forecast area, thus the issuance of a high wind watch.

Even though the relative humidity will be above warning criteria, there is concern for explosive fire growth on Thursday due to the dry fuels and high winds. In a past dust storm, there was enough dust blown across a barb wire fence to start a wildfire despite conditions not meeting official warning criteria. If a fire is not immediately blown out by these winds it will grow explosively.

Thursday night the low may occur before midnight when winds are light and radiational cooling allows lows to fall within a few degrees of dew points that are around 10 degrees. Before midnight southerly winds begin that will aid in bringing warm air advection in to slightly warm temperatures.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 254 PM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

Friday through Monday an upper level ridge then zonal flow move over the forecast area. Friday the highs continue to warm. This is causing relative humidity to be around 20% for the afternoon. This may lead to a concern for fire weather conditions. Another short wave trough moves through Southern Canada over the Northern Plains. This will send a cold front through the forecast area Saturday. The strong to high winds associated with the upper level trough will be well to the northeast of the forecast area. Otherwise there will be small disturbances moving through the jet stream, but those will be too far north to bring any precipitation to the forecast area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 433 PM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the KGLD and KMCK terminals during the 00Z TAF period. North-northwest winds area expected to be light and variable through ~06Z tonight as winds become southerly at ~5 kts. Southerly to southwesterly winds should stick around through the remainder of the period, with sustained speeds increasing to 15-20 kts after 15Z for KGLD and by 17Z over KGLD with gusts of 25-30 kts for both terminals during the late morning to afternoon hours. There could be a brief period of LLWS primarily over KMCK, but could impact KGLD, between 15-18Z at 200 ft from ~200 degrees at 40-45 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon for COZ090>092. NE...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon for NEZ079>081.