textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a very low chance, around 10%, for a severe thunderstorm capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail late this aft-eve, mainly in Greeley/ Wichita counties between 6-10 PM MDT.

- Expect cooler temperatures and predominantly dry conditions this weekend. Some rain possible with scattered showers late Saturday night and late Sunday aft-eve.

- Wednesday's high temperatures may get to above 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Today-Tonight: Moist southerly return flow is underway.. as surface high pressure shifts eastward/away from the Central Plains, a baggy lee cyclone redevelops over south- central/southeast CO and a low-level (surface to 850 mb) ridge over the Deep South directs Gulf moisture poleward into the Southern and Central Plains. Recent (12-18Z) model guidance suggest that the KS-OK border area will be the northern extent of rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60's, 850 mb dewpoints >14C) this aft-eve, a bit further south than previously indicated. Additionally, surface observations and radar/satellite trends suggest that morning convection in the TX-OK Panhandle and widespread morning cloud cover in southwest KS have delayed/stunted diurnal heating. 19Z SPC mesoanalysis forecast data indicates that a considerable amount (100-250 J/kg) of convective inhibition is likely to persist over northwest KS and southwest NE this aft-eve.. and simulated reflectivity forecasts via the 18Z HRRR and 12Z NAM NEST both suggest that convective development will be confined to far southwest KS, where low-level convergence on the eastern periphery of the baggy lee cyclone is expected to serve as a focus/catalyst for development. With the above in mind, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail in the Goodland CWA. A very low (5-10%) conditional potential for a severe storm still exists in Greeley/Wichita counties ~00-04Z this evening, when and where instability/shear will be sufficient for supercellular organization. Expect highs in the mid-upper 80's to lower 90's. With the driest conditions (RH's ~15-20%) confined to Yuma County, CO.. where initially breezy SSE to S winds will weaken to 10-15 mph during the mid-late afternoon, there are no appreciable fire weather concerns today.

Sat-Sun: Unidirectional/westerly flow aloft will persist over the the weekend. Guidance continues to suggest that a cooler/drier airmass advecting southward into the Tri-State Area in the wake of a modest cold frontal passage on Sat will preclude appreciable convective development in the Goodland CWA. Expect predominantly dry conditions with highs ~80-88F on Sat and 65-75F on Sun.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 233 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The upper pattern for Monday has a ridge off the Pacific- Northwest and over our area the flow is from the northwest. Monday's highs are forecast to be in the high 70s and some localized locations hitting above 80 degrees. The winds and gusts look to be calm and relatively tame. As for precipitation chances PoPs are currently showing 10-20% chance and with there being CAPE less than 1000 J/kg, these would likely just be pop- up rain showers if anything were to develop. Tuesday looks very similar to Monday, except the highs do warm up to the low 90s. The winds remain calm and gusts tame. Overall Monday and Tuesday look to be nice weather days.

Wednesday, looks to have a concern for the high temperatures and potential fire weather. Currently they are in the range of the high 90s and potential low 100s. Guidance is showing there being a 20-45% chance of exceeding 100 degrees mainly for locations, south of I-70 and east of KS Hwy 27. The NBM and LREF's 90th percentiles are fairly close with 108 and 101 degrees respectfully. The lows for Wednesday are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s.

There does look to be some Fire Weather concerns for Wednesday. The winds look to be from the west then shifting to the northwest. The gust are currently looking to be higher than 30 mph. Guidance is suggesting there being a 40-60% chance of exceeding 30 mph. The LREF does however show lower percentages in the 50s compared to the NBM. The gusts look to peak around midday and are focused on Yuma County and spread out to the bordering counties to the east and south. Moving to the Relative Humidity (RH) values, there is a fairly significant change in values. In the morning they are forecast to be in the 50-60% then come midday they drop to the low teens. Guidance is showing some uncertainly with exactly how long that period of low RH values sticks around however. Moving to GFDI, there are values there are a few brief moments where we have values in the 50-60 range but this is very localized. These conditions would lead to high fire growth. There could be Critical Fire Weather, however there is uncertainty with if all the ingredients for conditions to meet criteria will overlap. Currently 20-35% that conditions will meet Red Flag Criteria.

As we move further through the week, the ridge looks to de- amplifies and the flow becomes more zonal. However during this period there are some signs there could be some embedded shortwave disturbances that could bring precipitation chances. There is some signal a cold front could move through early Thursday morning that would help keep temperature below 100 degrees. Highs for the extended part of the forecast look to be in the low 90s and winds relative calm to breezy. As for precipation chances PoPs currently are 10-30%. Friday has the higher chances with 20-40%. Looking at SFC-CAPE there is roughly 500-900 J/kg and the SFC-500mb Shear in the 20 kt range. This would lead to more rain showers than storms, but this is almost 7 days out and a fair amount can change.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 415 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. S to SSW winds at 20 knots gusting to 30 knots this afternoon will decrease to ~10-15 knots around sunset. A short, sudden period of strong southerly winds assoc/w convective outflow cannot be ruled-out at the Goodland terminal late this evening/tonight, around 03-07Z, if organized convection [1] develops in southwest KS and [2] produces a consolidated cold pool. Otherwise, light winds will prevail overnight. Winds will shift to the N-NNE and increase to 15-25 knots in assoc/w a cold frontal passage a few hours after sunrise (~14-16Z) and remain breezy through Saturday afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.