textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and near average to slightly above average temperatures expected over the weekend.

- A warming trend will follow, early next week, with highs forecast to reach the mid 80's by Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Pleasant fall weather is expected over the weekend! During the mid to late afternoon, a cold front will move across the Tri-State area from the northwest bringing in cooler temperatures and northerly winds. The cold front is expected to move out of the area around midnight (12 AM) MDT. Behind the front, high pressure at the 850-700 mb layer will move over Eastern Colorado and the Central High Plains causing winds over the area to be light ~ 5 mph out of the north to northeast. Overnight lows are forecast to be a bit warmer tonight than yesterday with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

On Sunday the area will be under northwest flow aloft as a ridge builds over the Great Basin. During the day, the 850-700 mb high pressure will move south. The cooler air will linger with high temperatures in the 70s expected across the Tri-State Area. During the afternoon hours, winds over East-Central Colorado are expected to become southerly and increase as a lee trough will start to slide down along the lee side of the Rockies. NBM probabilities for gusts greater than 25 mph winds is ~30-70%, with the higher probabilities generally west of Highway 385 in Yuma and Kit Carson counties. The NBM is more bullish on winds than the LREF, which favors the stronger wind gusts west of the forecast area with only 20-25% chance for winds of 25 mph or higher west of a Yuma to Stratton line. Should the breezier conditions occur in the forecast area, the concern for critical fire weather conditions is low given the minimum relative humidity values only dropping into the mid 30s to low 50s over our Colorado counties. Overnight lows tomorrow night are forecast to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Upper level shortwaves are expected to move over the region Monday, deepening the lee surface trough throughout the day on Monday. As the trough deepens drier, warmer air will move into the area with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. The 80+ temperatures are expected to be in the northwest corner of the area along and north of a Flagler to Goodland to Trenton line. Relative humidity values remain above fire weather criteria at 20-~60% across the area, but we will want to keep an eye on Yuma and Kit Carson county as they could come close to the upper teens to low 20s Monday afternoon. Southerly winds gusting 25-30 mph will be possible in the afternoon to early evening as a stationary front sets up over the Tri-State Area. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the mid to upper 50s Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Not much has changed in this version of the long-term forecast other than the addition of next Saturday into the mix. Seasonably pleasant weather is expected to continue through next week into the weekend as a longwave ridge influences our area. Upper-level flow is still expected to be from the northwest for most of the week. Ensemble guidance continues to show a shift in flow briefly to the north Wednesday, back to northwest Thursday/Friday, then zonal westerly as the ridge axis passes over the Great Plains. A few shortwave passages are possible during the four-day forecast period. A frontal boundary should move through the region Tuesday into Wednesday, shifting the surface winds. Guidance doesn't project precipitation as QPF is 0 for pretty much the entire County Warning Area (CWA).

Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are likely to be less than 5% for the entire Tri-State region through Saturday of next week. Dry air aloft plus high pressure is expected to keep any cloud development limited to diurnal cumulus. Cloud coverage guidance does not anticipate more than 40% through Saturday so plentiful sunshine is expected. High temperatures are forecasted in the upper 70s to mid 80s with Tuesday being the warmest day across the CWA. Modest dew points in the 40s/50s for the majority of the CWA are expected with some areas east of Kansas Highway 25 seeing up to low 60s.

Fire weather potential will start to become a concern next week as Relative Humidity (RH) percentages fall into the 20s throughout the eastern Colorado counties. Tuesday will be a day to monitor as there's a chance to see values dip into the teens in this area. Surface winds are not as impressive Tuesday as 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are likely. RH should continue to linger around the 20s west of US-385 heading into the weekend. Simultaneously, winds 10-25 mph, gusting up to 35 mph in a few spots is expected for this area Wednesday through Saturday. For the rest of the CWA, a general 5-15 mph wind is likely. Gusts up to 25 mph with RH in the 30-50 percentiles should be expected everywhere at or east of K-27.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 443 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected over the KGLD and KMCK terminals through the 00Z period with clear to mostly clear skies. A cold front is currently pushing across the Central High Plains with winds over both terminals becoming northerly with the frontal passage at ~10 kts. A few sporadic gusts of 20-25 kts will be possible over both terminals through ~00Z before winds begin to decrease to around 5 kts and remain through the overnight hours into Sunday afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.