textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible generally along and west of Highway 27 this afternoon, but should improve during the late afternoon.

- Wintry precipitation, including freezing drizzle/fog, is possible each morning Sunday-Tuesday.

- Most of next week, we see chances for precipitation across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 119 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

The forecast remains on track for the afternoon as the surface trough moves over the area. We are seeing relative humidity values drop into the mid to low teens already with gusts to ~25 mph possible over the next few hours across the area, creating locally critical fire weather conditions. Burning remains not advised as fuels remain plenty dry across the area and fires can spread quickly. Starting around 2-3 PM MT/3-4 PM CT we should see winds start to decrease before becoming light and variable overnight. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s once again tonight.

On Saturday we see a similar pattern to today with the surface low maturing near Amarillo, Texas and a near-surface area of high pressure over the Rockies. A cold front is expected to push south over the area during the day tomorrow bringing northerly to easterly winds during the late afternoon to evening hours. Ahead of the cold front is another dry day with relative humidity values once again in the low to mid teens across the area. Winds should be similar if not a bit lighter tomorrow at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. The question will be the influence of the cold front as winds shift and whether there are any stronger winds the move in along it.

On Sunday the area of high pressure over the Rockies is expected to move over the Tri-State area while we remain under northwest flow aloft. Guidance favors a surge of moisture in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere from the south mainly moving over Kansas and into west-central Nebraska Sunday afternoon-evening. The slight northwesterly flow in the upper levels will bring in some moisture, just enough to keep a decent cloud covering over us. Along the eastern edge of our area, there are slight chances for a wintry/rain mix beginning late Sunday morning and continuing into Monday. Not currently expecting much for accumulation. There is a 20% chance we could see a glazing of ice and/or a trace of snow in Norton-Graham counties. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the lower 60s (east-central Colorado to the low-mid 40s (east of U.S. Highway 83) for highs and in the 20s overnight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 119 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

If you have been looking for chances for rain, next week has some promise! On Monday we see the moisture from the Gulf remain over the area with a little more of a westerly spread into our Colorado counties before a developing lee surface trough along the Front Range begins to push the moisture east during the afternoon hours. The added moisture will mostly provide cloud cover for the area, but we should begin to see an increase in rain chances (20-40%) across the area Monday evening. We should see these rain chances linger through to ~Wednesday afternoon with the best chances (50-65%) for rain Tuesday afternoon/evening as the lee trough develops into a surface low and moves across the area. As temperatures cool in the evenings with overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s we could see a transition to a wintry mix or just full on snow.

In the icing scenario, as surface temperatures drop below freezing, freezing drizzle/fog or a light freezing rain will occur. This generally looks to occur between around midnight to ~9 AM MT daily. As temperatures warm above freezing each day, any precipitation will fall as rain/drizzle. As temperatures drop below freezing again overnight, any remaining liquid precipitation could easily become a refreeze/black ice concern. There is a low confidence scenario (~10% chance) that the dry layer moistens early on in the mid layers, and snow becomes the dominant P-type while temperature are near or below freezing. Accumulating ice would likely not occur, but the overnight refreeze/black ice threat would remain.

On Wednesday we should begin to see a pattern change with an upper level cut-off low moving across the Central Plains and a weak ridge taking it's place late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of another system out of the Pacific Northwest. With this pattern change we do see continuous chances for rain with the daytime hours on Thursday currently forecast to be dry as the ridge passes over. With high temperatures in the 50s-60s most of the week (60s-low 70s Thursday), we should see mostly rain during the day for any precipitation that occurs and a transitions to snow or even just a rain/snow mix at night as overnight lows fall into the 20s and 30s each night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1059 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected over the KGLD and KMCK terminals through the period with clear to mostly clear skies. Northwest winds will continue through the afternoon at speeds of 10-15 kts. KMCK could see a few gusts to 25 kts this afternoon. Beginning ~00Z, winds will shift variably towards the south and then west through the overnight hours at speeds ~5 kts. Around sunrise Saturday we should see winds over the terminals become west-northwest at 5-10 kts before they shift more towards the north near the end of the period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.