textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued warm through the week with highs in the 90s.

- Storm and shower chances return on Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Upper ridge centered over west Texas and New Mexico will build northward into Colorado today, then gradually retreat west on Monday but still nose into the area. This will result in a couple of days of mostly dry but hot conditions. CAMs do show isolated convection developing this afternoon near the Palmer Divide, with a low probability of reaching Kit Carson or Cheyenne counties in northeast Colorado. Weak instability and low shear suggest storms will not be severe and will quickly dissipate with loss of surface heating by 00-01z. On Monday CAMs show the convection limited to the Front Range area and not making any eastward progress due to the weak flow aloft under the ridge. Highs today will be in the low 90s and highs on Monday in the low to mid 90s. Southeast winds will be breezy at times in the afternoon during peak mixing hours, with gusts of 20-30 mph by Monday. Despite the hot temperatures and breezy winds, dew points remain relatively high in the 50s and 60s which will keep relative humidity in the 20-30% range in the afternoon. So, not expecting any fire weather concerns.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Looking at precipitation chances for the early to mid parts of the work week, Tuesday and Wednesday look to have the best chances. There is what looks to be a shortwave that will move though on each day. Currently PoPs are 20-40% for west of KS Hwy 27 for the afternoon on Tuesday. There does look to be a dryline/boundary in place over the CO/KS border on Tuesday and this could be the lifting factor needed for storm development. There is a 30-50% range for PoPs on Wednesday for the majority of the County Warning Area (CWA). Some Guidance like the GFS does show a boundary/front developing out of Colorado and moving east and this could be the lift factor that could lead to storm development. CAPE each day 1000-1600 J/kg looks to present. Bulk wind shear is in the 20-30 kts range. Given these values there could be severe potential but it would be more on the marginal side.

Friday through Saturday, highs will be in the mid 90s to low 100s. Areas east of KS Hwy 27 and Cheyenne County, CO. The probability of exceeding 100 degrees is around 5-10% for Friday. Guidance is disagreeing with the high temperatures on Saturday. Saturday's probability of exceeding 100 from the LREF is 10-15% where as the NBM's is around 20-35%. However, Guidance has a bit more agreement with the probability of exceeding 105. The NBM has it at 5-10% and the LREF has around 5%. Winds are from the southeast/east for the majority of the two day stretch. Gusts look to remain less than 30 mph. Precipitation chances decrease compared to prior days as there is around a 10% each day for a shower to develop.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface winds will be light with occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.