textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures today and tomorrow. Daily record highs and even monthly record highs may be possible.

- Fire Weather Watch issued for most of the area for Saturday. Very dry conditions and wind gusts up to 40 mph possible.

- Front moves through late Saturday, bringing much cooler temperatures and a chance for blowing dust.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 203 AM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

The short-term, up until Saturday night, is dominated by a high pressure system over the southwestern CONUS. This will put us under northwesterly flow, which could allow for some weak shortwaves that cause light forcing. However, down in the lower levels, dry conditions will prevail and precipitation is not expected from the lack of moisture. This will also allow temperatures to climb over the next several days as skies remain fairly clear.

Temperatures today have slightly increased, now ranging from the mid 80s to 90, with the warmest locations in the eastern CWA. 850 mb temperatures warming into the 20-25C range. We will have a low level high pressure system moving across the CWA this evening, and be to the southeast of the CWA tomorrow. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to be even warmer, the peak of our current hot spell. 850 mb temperatures climb into the 25-30 C range as southwesterly winds push additional warm and down sloping winds into the CWA. Temperatures across the CWA will be in the 90s, and triple digit heat is not out of the quest. Record high temperatures are in jeopardy, more information can be found in the climate section below. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to remain in the 40s.

Today and tomorrow, dry conditions will persist, pushing RH values in the 8-12% range today and 5-10% range tomorrow. Winds today are forecast to remain under 20 MPH and be from the northwest. Tomorrow, winds are expected to be the strongest southeast of a line from McCook, NE to Leoti, KS. This is the area that has the best potential of mixing to 500-700 mb, where the exiting high will likely be producing winds in the 25-40 kts range. This would allow gusts of up around 40 MPH to mix to the surface. The rest of the Watched area will likely see winds generally remain below 20 MPH with occasional gusts of 25-35 MPH. The frequency of these gusts will be the deciding factor if critical fire weather conditions are present or not.

The same area that sees stronger winds Saturday will also have some blowing dust potential. Looking at lapse rates, there will be no capping, leading to the most likely hazard being diminished air quality and slight visibility reductions near source regions. Overnight, with the consistent winds behind the cold front, lapse rates are not expected to support blowing dust.

Overnight Saturday, likely between 6-9Z, a cold front will be moving in from the north. This will give a fairly quick wind shift to be coming from the north and gusting up to 30 MPH for most of the area by sunrise.

Sunday, winds from the north-northeast will continue gusting around 25-30 MPH all day. This will bring in cooler temperatures and keep RH values above 25%, eliminating any fire weather threat. Some light precipitation is possible, but not likely, as the front comes through as we don't have a lot of moisture to be working with. If any precipitation occurs, it would likely be showers with some embedded convection, all falling as rain though. We can't rule out the potential for dry lightning, either. Overnight lows are forecast to remain in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1252 AM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Sunday night, the core of the cold air mass is forecast to move near the area in the wake of the front. Winds should lower to around 10 mph or less with temperatures dropping to around freezing. Locales that have the cloud cover clear out should drop below freezing.

Next week is forecast to start cooler with high temperatures Monday in the 60s. Winds could still be a bit breezy as low pressure is forecast to develop along the Front Range with the high pressure still just east of the area. Right now, counties along the Colorado border are forecast to have winds around 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. If this holds, critical fire weather may be a concern with relative humidity in the upper teens. As the week progresses, another system is forecast to move through the area. The issue is that guidance remains fairly split on when the next trough and surface low should push through. The current consensus is around Wednesday, but GEFS members show the passage as early as Tuesday and as late as Thursday. The earlier the system passes, the cooler the area should be with high temperatures remaining in the 70s or lower. The later the system passes, the more we could warm up with 80s and 90s then possible by Wednesday. This would also lead to an increased risk for fire danger with dry conditions unfortunately still expected to prevail. Stayed tuned as we see when the next system decides to grace us with its presence.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions remains forecast with mostly clear skies. Winds are forecast to vary between north and southwest at the surface around 10 kts. The most likely direction is around 280-300 degrees.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1013 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Some daily record highs and even monthly March record highs are in jeopardy of falling this Friday and Saturday

Record high temperatures Friday March 20th

Goodland: Record high 90 in 1907.... current forecast 86.

McCook: Record high 85 in 1916 and 1997.... current forecast 88.

Hill City: Record high 88 in 1916... current forecast 90.

Burlington: Record high 87 in 1907.... current forecast 85. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Record high temperatures Saturday March 21st

Goodland: Record high 84 in 1907 & 2011.... current forecast 94.

McCook: Record high 89 in 1910.... current forecast 97.

Hill City: Record high 93 in 1907... current forecast 98.

Burlington: Record high 84 in 2011.... current forecast 93. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Monthly (March) Record Highs:

Goodland: 90 degrees March 20th, 1907

McCook: 93 degrees March 16th, 2015

Burlington: 93 degrees March 19th, 1921

Hill City: 94 degrees March 16th, 2015

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for KSZ001>004-014>016-028-029-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for COZ252. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for NEZ079>081.