textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions possible this afternoon from the Tri Border area into northeast Colorado.

- Temperatures warming to near and slightly above normal through early next week, warmest in Colorado.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1203 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Pleasant weather is in store for the Tri-State area over the next few days as we remain in an upper-level ridging pattern. Expect mostly sunny skies and temperatures a bit warmer than usual for this time of year. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s through Monday.

Main forecast highlights for today are windy conditions throughout the Tri-State area and potential fire weather conditions in northeast Colorado. Expect mostly southerly winds with gusts from 25 to 35 mph possible. Sustained winds for today max out around 25 mph. Strongest winds will be along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border. Afternoon relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the mid teens for northwest county warning area (CWA). Sunny skies along with southerly downsloping winds have the potential to warm and dry conditions out further. Fuels across eastern Colorado continue to remain dry and Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are in the 30s to 40s. Any fires that start are likely to spread rapidly and show erratic behavior.

A few hours of critical fire weather this afternoon are likely for Kit Carson and Yuma counties. Confidence in widespread or longer duration critical fire weather conditions is not high enough to warrant any fire weather products at this time. Fire weather concerns diminish after sundown as winds start to subside and RH values begin to recover.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

The overall synoptic pattern in this forecast period features two different setups. Guidance continues to outline a ridging pattern continuing through Wednesday; exhibiting high-pressure, dry air, and southwesterly flow aloft. A duo of shortwave troughs are expected to propagate through the system, the first of which early Tuesday and the second one Wednesday. Weak low pressure is expected to develop at the surface as well with these features. However, no fronts or precip is anticipated. Thursday through Friday is when ensemble guidance has begun to display a longwave trough developing and moving across the southwestern CONUS. Said trough could become negatively tilted and eject a jet streak through the County Warning Area (CWA). This would likely boost surface winds for Friday. As this deepening system makes its way across the western US, a strong surface low is likely to develop in the northern Rockies, moving eastward into the northern Plains late Thursday. Simultaneously, a cold front likely moves through the CWA late Friday evening.

Model guidance is quite confident on Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) presenting less than 10% initially, which means very low chance of rainfall through Wednesday. Elevated PoP chances first present around the evening timeframe Thursday. 20-35% is forecast right now but this could very well change as models get a better grasp of the synoptic setup. Heading into Friday, Rainfall chances have seen a bit of a boost from recent long-term forecasts, particularity later on in the evening when the frontal passage is underway. 25-35% PoPs early in the day should see an uptick to 30- 50% through the evening hours. Dewpoints should range around the mid to upper 50s so there will likely be adequate moisture to work with. At this time low confidence exists for any of this activity becoming convective, given the projected low CAPE/low bulk shear environment but will have to be monitored as we head into next week.

A warming trend, with respect to high and low temperatures, should persist across the CWA and last through pre-frontal passage Friday. Tuesday high temps consistently low/mid 70s should increase a bit to upper 70s/low 80s on Wednesday with subsidence, via the ridge, dominating the region. Highs are anticipated to peak on Thursday in the low/mid 80s then settle around the upper 70s to low 80s range mid-afternoon before the cold front arrives. Overnight low temps are expected to originally be cooler Tuesday/Wednesday mornings(40s-low 50s) then become milder for Thursday/Friday with consistent 50s across the entire CWA.

Fire weather will be monitored leading up to this four-day period. Relative humidity (RH) values in the 25-45% range are forecasted each day through Friday during peak heating late afternoon. Wednesday will be the driest day as RH could dip into the 20s across a good chunk of the CWA at or west of US-385. It will be quite humid each night as temperatures cool to the dew point. Moving onto surface winds, Thursday and Friday are likely to be the windiest days during this period and could see stronger 25-35 mph winds, gusting 40-45 mph in eastern Colorado. Gusts up to 30 mph are generally possible everywhere else on Thursday and Friday. At this moment in time, no areas of critical fire weather are forecasted. Nonetheless, elevated fire weather is still possible, especially areas west of the Colorado/Kansas state line where lower RH matches up with stronger winds.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 503 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are forecast during the TAF period. Winds will generally be from the south and around 10-20 kts, with gusts around 25-30 kts. Wind will likely begin to lighten up overnight. Tomorrow winds will remain from the south, but be lighter around 5-10 kts through the end of the TAFs period. For KMCK, low- level wind shear is still possible this evening through 10-11Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.