textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures are likely to persist through the remainder of the week.

- Scattered thunderstorms may occur again tomorrow afternoon and evening. Localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are the primary threat, but hail up to 1.5 inches is also possible.

- A mainly dry period is expected Thursday and Friday before another chance for storms on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Over the next couple of days, we will be sitting under southwesterly flow as a high sits over the east central CONUS and a low sits around the Great Basin region. This will allow shortwaves to ride the jet and cause disturbances in the CWA. This will lead to hot and dry conditions at the surface with chances at storms with any shortwave troughs.

Today, before we get the bulk of our first shortwave trough, temperatures will climb into the 90s, with tomorrow being pretty similar. We have a weak dryline set up from about Norcatur, through Colby, down to around Leoti. This is allowing some weak convection fire off in the midday. This midday convection may weaken the environment for this afternoon and evening's event.

Around 20-22Z, a 500 mb shortwave trough is expected to be pushing into the CWA. This will fire off storms in the far southern portions of the CWA. These storms will move northeast, and should exit around 4-7Z. We are looking at high-based storms in an inverted V environment, meaning there is effectively no tornadic potential. However, dry micro bursts are possible today. Additionally, there was some guidance overnight suggesting the storms cluster together and a bowing segment forms. These may lead to gusts as high as 70-75 kts. If gusts above 50 kts occur, blowing dust becomes likely, including plumes and a wall of dust leading to brownout conditions. In combination of the midday convection and weak forcing, there is a 20% chance that only a couple of storms fire, and may even remain sub-severe.

Tonight, we could see some lingering showers until as late as 9Z, but little precipitation is expected from them or the main storms in the evening. Lows look to cool into the upper 50s in the northwestern CWA and low 70s in the eastern CWA. Yuma county, which looks to be the coolest spot tonight, has a 15% chance of seeing some patchy fog around sunrise in valleys.

Tomorrow is very similar to today, but with less mid-level forcing for the storms and less potential for midday convection. The storms tomorrow look to fire off the dryline 21-00Z. The dryline looks to be northeast/southwest oriented around the Tribune to Norcatur area. This is also the direction storms will be traveling. Due to this orientation, and storms more likely to stay along the boundary, there is an increased risk of landspouts, mainly between 22-2Z. However, winds up to 60 kts and hail up to 1.5 inches look to be the main threats.

Tomorrow night, we could see lingering showers and weak storms stick around until as late as 12Z. Once again, we're not expecting a lot of precipitation to come out of these storms. However, if the storms train over the same area, localized amounts up to 2 inches of rain is possible on the northeastern extent of the line of convection. Temperatures look be similar to tonight's, as well as the low end fog threat.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

***Thursday/Friday***

Thursday morning, a 500-mb high looks to be set up across the Eastern United States, with troughing across the west. This pattern would produce southwesterly upper-level flow across the County Warning Area (CWA). Several shortwave systems may be embedded in this flow. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance is consistent on a shortwave ridge overhead to start the period, with a shortwave trough that comes through during the afternoon and evening hours. A surface low pressure at the leading edge of this shortwave trough would establish southerly surface winds across the forecast region throughout the day. Temperatures are likely to be hot, with current forecast guidance suggesting highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area.

Winds to the south of the low may be a bit more southwesterly. This would promote drying conditions, particularly across portions of East-Central Colorado. According to LREF guidance, the western halves of Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado have over a 50% chance of relative humidities (RH) dropping below 15%, with as high as an 80% chance along their western borders. Forecast guidance suggests that RH values dropping into the single-digits. Wind gusts may increase through the afternoon hours as well, with NBM guidance suggesting up to a 75% chance for gusts to exceed critical fire weather criteria (>25 mph). The good news is that recent rainfall may prevent significant drying of fuels, limiting the risk for critical fire weather. If fuels can become dry enough, a Red Flag Warning may need to be considered across this zone.

Thunderstorm activity may also be in play Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of a dryline. LREF guidance suggests a 75% chance or greater to see surface-based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values 1000 J/kg or higher along and east of Kansas Highway 25. However, the same guidance suggests that 0-500mb wind shear will max out around 30 kts in this zone, which would suggest mostly non-severe thunderstorms. The best chance for any severe weather would be if near 90th percentile CAPE can be experienced (2500-3500 J/kg), which could promote hail earlier in the storms' life cycles. Confidence in severe thunderstorms occurring Thursday afternoon and evening is 5% or less at this time.

Similar conditions are possible on Friday, except without the thunderstorm potential. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Forecast guidance suggests that RH values may drop into the mid single-digits in some locations of East- Central Colorado. However, wind gusts look to be a bit lighter during the afternoon than on Thursday. Even if fuels are able to dry out significantly by then, the confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is low at this time.

***Saturday***

Ensemble guidance is confident in troughing from the west lifting northeast by Saturday, as another shortwave trough moves in overhead. As this occurs, a cold front is favored to move through the area. High temperatures are forecast slightly lower in the lower to upper 90s, but RH values look to improve a bit as this process takes place. Thunderstorms may occur along the cold front as well. LREF guidance suggests that 0-500mb shear may reach the 30-40 kt range, which could support some thunderstorms becoming severe. Even so, confidence in a severe event Saturday afternoon and evening is only about 5%.

***Sunday-Tuesday***

Upper-level ridging looks to take over by Sunday, and last through the end of the forecast period. A slow moving high at the leading edge of this system may prevent winds from becoming fully out of the south until Tuesday. This is reflected in the forecast highs of upper 80s and lower 90s Sunday and Monday, and low to mid 90s on Tuesday. Additionally, easterly surface winds from this high on Sunday and Monday could produce a convergence zone across Kansas. This boundary may support thunderstorm development as well. Confidence is low at this time that these storms will become severe.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through most, if not all, of the 06Z TAF period. While thunderstorms could potentially affect the Goodland terminal during the afternoon and early evening (~22-03Z), low confidence in thunderstorm coverage and location precludes explicit mention with the 06Z TAF issuance. Low confidence persists with regard to wind speed and direction. Broadly speaking, expect that light SE to S winds will shift to the NW within a few hours after sunrise, then become variable or easterly during the late morning and early afternoon. Gusty/erratic winds are possible in vicinity of any storms.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through most, if not all, of the 06Z TAF period. While thunderstorms could potentially affect the McCook terminal near the end of the TAF period (~00-06Z Thu), low confidence in thunderstorm coverage and location precludes explicit mention with the 06Z TAF issuance. Low confidence persists with regard to wind speed and direction. SE to S winds at 15-25 knots are expected to become light and variable by sunrise. Winds may remain variable into the afternoon. Gusty/erratic winds are possible in vicinity of any storms.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.