textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A bit cooler to end the work week with highs in the 80s and low 90s.

- Severe weather returns end of this week through early next week. Main days for severe weather look to be Saturday and Sunday.

- Cooler and wet pattern is forecast to start the new work week and even possibly through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1201 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Observations continue to show a large upper low/trough over most of the CONUS with the Tri-State area specifically under northwest flow. At the surface, another weaker cold front has been pushing through the area from the northeast, bringing some cloud cover into Southwest Nebraska with it. For the remainder of the night, cloud cover is forecast to slowly expand across the area with winds starting around 10-15 mph, but lowering to 5-10 mph as we near sunrise. This should keep temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and 60s.

For the daytime hours Thursday, the continued northwest flow aloft and broad surface high over the Central Plains are forecast to lead to a relatively benign day. Winds are forecast to generally be below 10 mph, with 15 mph and a few gusts to 25 mph possible for counties along the Colorado border (closer to lower pressure). Highs are forecast to be around the mid to upper 80s as skies slowly clear through the day. Thursday night, little change in the pattern and conditions are forecast with winds around 5-15 mph along with a mix of clear skies and clouds. Temperatures should cool to around 60.

Friday, some slight upper ridging is forecast to push into the area ahead of another upper low moving into the Northwestern CONUS. This is forecast to help expand the lower pressure into the area from the west. With the low not forecast to be very deep, winds are forecast to remain around 10-15 mph through the day. The upper ridging and southeasterly flow should help temperatures warm compared to Thursday with highs forecast to be around 90.

For the evening and overnight hours Friday, there are some chances for showers and storms. With the low sitting just west of the area, helping low level flow advect in moisture, storms could spark along the higher terrain or potential a convergence zone. Right now, this doesn't look to be too widespread or impactful with drier air in the mid-levels and weak upper level subsidence. Still may need to keep an eye out for a storm that could try and go marginally severe. Otherwise, the increasing low level moisture should increase cloud cover and help keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

An unsettled pattern continues for nearly the entire extended period as additional shortwaves move through the area. A classic summertime storm pattern is forecast to be setting up with developing high pressure across the southern Plains and semi northwest mid level flow for the CWA. Moisture currently looks to be a little less than Saturday with PWATS ranging from 1-1.5 inches. The signal remains for the potential of a few MCS's to move through the area after initial discrete storms at least Monday through Wednesday; and potentially through the latter part of the weak as some guidance indicates very little change to the overall pattern. Dependent on how Saturday and each previous day pans out additional flooding concerns may be possible especially for those that received the heaviest rainfall each day.

Temperatures for the period are a little on the tricky side as they potentially could end up a little cooler than currently forecast anyone day due to lingering cloud cover and possibly precipation. Confidence is high that below normal temperatures will occur with highs in the 70s to low 80s along with an increase in humidity as well. If the high were to set up a little further to the east more so over Oklahoma and Texas instead of Arizona and New Mexico which is what guidance currently suggests then rain chances would decrease and temperatures would increase.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1040 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. A surface high is moving over southwestern Nebraska through the midday, leading to variable, but occasionally gusty winds at KMCK. We are expecting occasional gusts this afternoon in the 15-20 kts range. This evening and overnight, winds will be southeastern then southwesterly, and strengthen tomorrow morning. Showers may start impacting KMCK near the end of the period, but largely occur in the afternoon hours.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.