textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight midday Sunday for the entire Tri-State Area. Wind chill readings ranging from 15 to 25 below zero are expected throughout this period. Monday morning may also have wind chills in the negative teens.

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of northwestern Kansas due to expected snowfall amounts ranging from 3-6 inches. Pockets of snow up to 8 inches is possible in the southeastern CWA. Areas outside of the Advisory can expect up to 3 inches of snow.

- 10% chance of freezing drizzle south of I-70 between U.S. 385 and 83 late Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 248 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

The rest of the day, mild conditions will prevail as our next system approaches. Overnight tonight, the northeasterly winds will push temperatures into the low single digits, leading to winds chills as low as -20F. It's likely Friday will see a midnight high in the mid teens. An 850 mb high will descend over Nebraska, to the northeast of the CWA. This will continually push colder air into the CWA and high temperatures after sunrise will be around 10 degrees for most of the area. This will lead to maximum feels-like temperatures to be around -5 to -15 range. A Cold Weather Advisory starts tonight and will persist through Sunday midday.

During the day Friday, a low around Baja California looks to provide 700 mb south/southwesterly flow. This would push warm, moist air into the region in the afternoon and evening. During the morning, the 700 mb layer looks to still be dry. As the low level flow from the east pushes moisture into the CWA, there is a 10-15% chance freezing drizzle will occur south of I-70 between U.S. 385 and 83. For the freezing drizzle to occur, temperatures would need to be in the upper teens to support supercooled droplets. In this scenario, a trace to 0.03 inches of ice would occur. Current forecast is that temperatures will be too cold to support droplets, in which case stratus would occur and occasional flurries will fall.

Snow may move into the northern CWA as early as 9Z, and most of the CWA will see snow by 13-15Z. Peak snowfall rates will be between 21- 6Z. The eastern CWA will see the highest snowfall amounts, and also has a 15-20% chance of seeing a snowband form. Looking at NAM, 0-6Z the column is saturated, and near surface and mid level lapse rates are between 7.5-9 C/km, with Omega around -5. If a band forms, snowfall accumulations in these areas would likely be around 8-10 inches.

Snowfall accumulations across most of the northwestern Kansas look to be around 3-6 inches, prompting a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued. Areas outside of the area look to receive 1-2.5 inches of snow. These amounts have come up slightly due to the system favoring a northerly path and SLRs increasing (around 1:15-20) due to the very cold temperatures. There is still a 30% chance the system takes a more southerly path, which would basically half these snowfall amounts.

Overnight Friday, temperatures are forecast to cool to around -5, leading to wind chills around -15 to -25. There is a 50% chance air temperatures drop even colder, and push wind chills in the central CWA to -30, in which case a Cold Weather Warning would need to be issued.

Saturday, the mid-level cold front basically stalls out over the southeastern CWA. This will allow the snow to persist throughout the day. Temperatures during the day are forecast to top out around 0-10 degrees, which may still be about 5 degrees too warm. Wind chills will likely not climb above 0 degrees Saturday.

Snow should end by sunrise Sunday from the north to south. There is a 20-30% chance the system slows, allowing the precipitation to linger into the mid morning Sunday. Lows are forecast to cool to around 0 to -5, pushing wind chills to around -15, again.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 119 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

Sunday starts the area off with another shortwave moving in the northwest flow aloft. This should bring a cold front through the area during the daytime hours. With snow forecast to be on the ground already, temperatures are forecast to not recover too much and largely stay in the teens and low twenties. The front and shortwave are also forecast to bring in another chance for snow, but the very cold temperatures and overall lack of moisture should limit any additional accumulations to around a trace to maybe one inch.

Sunday night, in the wake of the front, temperatures are forecast to cool again to around 0. With winds forecasting to increase slowly through the night to around 5-10 mph, wind chills should drop into the negative teens again. This could lead to the necessity of another Cold Weather Advisory if this holds.

Monday, the area is forecast to remain in northwest flow as a ridge remains over the Western CONUS and we shift to the backside of the shortwave and trough. If this sets up, Monday should be dry and a bit warmer as the low level flow shifts to be more from the west/southwest and allow for warm air advection. For those who still have snow on the ground, temperatures will likely only warm into the 20's and 30s, while those who have little snow (mainly to the north) are forecast to reach the 40s.

For the remainder of the period, guidance is split on how to handle the next system. We generally remain in the northwest flow aloft with the ridge remaining over the west and the main trough to the east. The issue at hand is a shortwave trough that is forecast to swing through the Plains. Guidance splits into pushing the trough through around the mid-week (Wed/Thur) and late in the work week (Fri/Sat).

For the earlier progression, the trough would push through and generally keep the area in the cold air mass short of maybe a break day on Tue or Wed with highs in the 40s. Temperatures would then lower back into the teens and twenties when the trough pushes through and then slowly warm after that. There might be a few flurries, but it is unlikely that enough moisture would recover to give us accumulating snow. Winds also could become breezy when the front passes, but there is no signal right now for strong winds.

For the later progression, Wednesday and Thursday would likely be warmer and potentially have above average highs in the 50s and 60s. For Friday and Saturday though, the system would then push in and lower temperatures likely into the 10s, 20s, or 30s. There is also a higher chance for snow with moisture wrapping around the system, though accumulations of snow above a few inches looks to be unlikely.

Regardless of when this next system moves in, the area will have the chance for very cold temperatures with lows dropping into the single digits, both positive and negative. Will need to watch for wind chills in the negative teens and twenties.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1023 PM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through at least 10Z at KGlD and KMCK with MVFR stratus overspreading northwest KS and southwest NE in the 10-15Z period. Light snow chances along with the potential for visibility impacts increases Friday afternoon, though lighter flurries can't be ruled out earlier. The bes Winds do increase from the east-southeast to the 12-15kt range, and winds may periodically gust to 25kt during the afternoon. Combined with falling snow this may contribute to the potential for localized visibility reductions due to minor blowing snow before any gusts drop off before Friday evening. The signal for best chances for moderate snowfall at TAF sites would be Friday evening into Saturday morning when visibilities under 3sm would be most likely. Brief/localized drops under 1sm may occur in moderate snow pockets, however timing/duration/coverage of those impacts are too uncertain to prevail at TAF sites at this time.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ Saturday for KSZ001>004- 013>015-027-028-041-042. Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Saturday night for KSZ016-029. CO...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday for COZ090>092. NE...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.