textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms in northern CO and the NE Panhandle will track southeast into portions of northwest KS and southwest NE late this aft-eve. A few severe storms are possible between 5-9 PM MDT. Damaging wind gusts and quarter size hail are the main hazards. Blowing dust is possible with thunderstorm outflow.

- Warm temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s are forecast for most of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 140 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Synoptic Overview: An amplifying ridge along the Pacific Coast will slowly shift east across the Intermountain West (today- tonight) and Rockies (Sun-Sun night), then broaden and extend eastward over the Central Plains (Mon-Mon night). Shortwave energy located near Yellowstone, WY at 18Z will slowly dig SSE through central WY this afternoon, southern WY (this evening), eastern CO (overnight), southwest KS (Sun morning) and the Southern Plains (Sun-Sun night).. via NNW flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the eastward advancing ridge.

Through Tonight: A weak, inverted surface trough extending NNE (roughly) from Tribune to Colby and McCook at 18Z will be displaced/shunted southward into southwest and south-central KS late this afternoon as a cooler airmass / inverted surface ridge (extending southward through the Dakotas/Nebraska) progresses southward into CO-KS, the leading edge of which will manifest as a NE wind shift and modest effective cold frontal passage. A capped and very marginally unstable airmass (~100 J/kg mlcape and CIN) in place over the Tri-State Area at 18Z will destabilize (to some extent) during peak heating (by ~23Z), when high-res guidance suggests ~250-500 J/kg mlcape and little or no convective inhibition, though.. increasingly NE to ENE low- level flow will likely result in increasing convective inhibition after 00Z (i.e. advect CIN westward from the cloud- covered airmass over south-central NE and north-central KS). Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the latest 18Z HRRR suggest that low-level convergence in northeast CO may aid in the development of a few short-lived, unorganized sub-severe updrafts in vicinity of the Tri-State border ~21-23Z (3-5p MDT). During the past 12 hours, the common 'theme' amongst the majority of convection allowing guidance is that.. upstream convection developing along/near the Cheyenne Ridge (southeast WY, northern CO) will propagate downstream / southeast across northeast CO and northwest KS ~00-04Z (6-10p MDT), when and where the presence of convection and combination of strong (1000-1500 J/kg) DCAPE and a tightening 'background' MSLP gradient may support severe N to NE winds with any convection.

Sun-Sun night: Expect cooler temperatures, light/variable winds and little to no chance for precipitation in the wake of the front, with highs in the mid 60's to lower 70's.

Mon-Mon night: With a broad upper level ridge extending eastward over the Central Plains, expect a warming/drying trend with highs in the mid-upper 80's and minimum RH readings ranging from 15-20%, possibly lower (10-15%) in northwest portions of Yuma County, CO. Guidance suggests SSW to WSW winds generally in the 10-20 mph range, perhaps with occasional gusts up to 25 mph over portions of the area (mainly north and east of Goodland). With this in mind, marginal red flag conditions are possible.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

***Synopsis***

Northwesterly flow looks to be in place overhead Tuesday morning, as a shortwave trough treks southeastward across the Midwest. This would be associated with a weak to modest cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, ridging coming in overhead Wednesday favors a southerly flow to quickly reestablish itself. Troughing looks to be coming into the West Coast Wednesday afternoon and evening, though significant timing issues exist regarding its eastward propagation, leading to significant model divergence by Thursday night. GEFS, EC, and LREF ensemble guidance indicates a slower propagation of this wave, which would allow ridging to persist through the end of the forecast period. Still, some guidance does favor a faster propagation, which would allow a cold front to sweep through the forecast region as early as Thursday night.

***Tuesday***

The weak cold front that looks to come through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening may cool the forecast area slightly from Monday, with forecast highs in the upper-70s to upper-80s. Even so, impacts from this feature are forecast to be minimal, with most NBM and LREF guidance suggesting a lack of precipitation during this period. Only LREF 95th and higher percentiles show any indication of precipitation from this system, and even then would be a few hundredths of an inch. Relative humidities (RH) may drop near the mid-teens Tuesday afternoon, though LREF guidance suggests less than a 20% chance across the forecast area for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria. Wind gusts are currently forecast in the 25-35 mph range during this period, supported by NBM guidance. Gusts toward the higher end of this range may be enough to overcome RH values that don't quite reach criteria, creating marginal fire weather risks. However, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Tuesday afternoon is less than 5%.

***Wednesday - Thursday Afternoon***

Warm temperatures look to continue with ridging moving in overhead Wednesday. Highs are currently forecast in the mid to upper-80s Wednesday afternoon, and upper-80s to mid-90s Thursday. Dry conditions once again seem possible, with RH in the mid-teens to upper-20s Wednesday, and mid to upper-teens Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions may once again come into play both days. Wednesday's risk appears wind-driven, with forecast guidance suggesting up to 45 mph gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado. This is consistent with the mean forecasted wind gusts from the NBM across this region in the low to mid-40s. However, these values may be biased toward the high end due to how the NBM assigns wind gusts. Additionally, this region is forecast to experience the higher end of the RH range for Wednesday (upper-teens to lower-20s). As such, fire weather risks Wednesday afternoon are favored to be marginal across this zone. Forecast guidance for Thursday afternoon suggests gusts in the 25-35 mph range are possible, with NBM guidance giving at least a 1 in 3 chance for most locations in the CWA to experience gusts meeting critical fire weather criteria. Still, RH values according to the LREF have less than a 30% chance to drop into criteria for the hazard, lowering the risk. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is around 5% for both Wednesday and Thursday.

***Thursday Night - Saturday***

Again, forecast guidance is a bit more uncertain by Thursday night due to unresolved timing of an eastward moving trough from the west. Ensemble guidance appears to favor a broader, slower-moving wave, though some deterministic guidance shows this feature as a faster- moving shortwave system. The faster propagation would promote a cold front to traverse the forecast area sometime between Thursday night and Friday morning. This activity may be associated with some light showers along the boundary, with additional precipitation opportunities behind the front Friday night and possibly into Saturday morning. The slower propagation would continue to support warm and dry conditions, with highs in the mid-80s to mid-90s, and RH as low as the mid-teens. Fire weather would continue to be a risk under this scenario until the trough from the west reaches the forecast region. The slower propagation appears highly favored at this time, as only 10th percentile and lower LREF scenarios show indications of the wave reaching the Nevada-Utah border or further by Friday morning. Confidence in the slower propagation is around 75-80% at this time, though is still something to keep an eye on as the pattern develops.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Showers/storms and a period of strong N to NE winds are possible at both terminals late this afternoon and evening, mainly between ~00-04Z. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Winds will shift to the NE late this afternoon and remain NE overnight, becoming light/variable around or shortly after sunrise Sunday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.