textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence in severe weather chances Tuesday, but somewhat better, though marginal, chances on Wednesday.

- Temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s during the days, and 50s/60s during the night.

- Increasing signal for above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1116 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Today has seen the upper low lift a bit further north, allowing ridging to amplify more into the Plains. Meanwhile, the showers and storms that were present through the night and early morning hours have shifted well south of the area. This is allowing skies to clear and temperatures have been warming steadily. Highs are still forecast to be in the 80s with the clearer skies. Winds have remained roughly from the south/southeast with the surface low still to the west and high pressure over the Plains. Speeds should remain around 10-25 mph with gusts of 20-40 mph.

Late this afternoon and evening, storms are forecast to try and fire up again. The likely regions are west of the area long the higher terrain and south of the area near the Panhandles where ongoing convection may kick an outflow along the convergence zone of the surface low. We also have a low chance for storms to develop overhead if another convergence zone sets up overhead. Currently, with that being unlikely, our storm chances are for storms to move in from outside the area. The better chance currently looks to be the southern storms if they can make it. Cloud cover may stabilize things enough to keep storms from making it. Even if storms do make it here, the shear is forecast to be much lower today around 25-35 kts, favoring pulse or decaying storms. This is why storm chances are capped in the 50-60s in spite of the sunshine and lingering moisture. We still have the chance for severe storms, but the aforementioned weak support would likely only allow for either hail to an inch or a wind gust or two to 60 mph. It wouldn't be impossible for a storm to make larger hail up to two inches with MUCAPE potentially reach 2500 J/kg. Storms should move steadily northeast if they form and clear the area a few hours after midnight. Cloud cover should linger across most of the area, again keeping temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

Wednesday, the upper low/trough finally begins to push east through the Northern Plains. As it does so, it is forecast to shift the lower pressure further into the Plains with a cold front moving near the Nebraska Panhandle and NE Colorado. This is going to keep the area with southerly winds around 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Temperatures are forecast to still be in the 80s with no airmass change and a mix of sun and clouds.

During the afternoon and evening hours, storms are forecast to fire up along the front and higher terrain to the west and move east towards the area. The storms are forecast to cluster together, but then struggle to move through the area with 0-6km shear forecast to be around 15-30 kts. If this sets up, storms would likely fall behind their outflow and then dissipate or just produce weak storms as it moves east. The main concern with this would be wind gusts to 60 mph, though the chances are low due to the overall weak flow. The other potential source of storms is outflow from storms south of the area. If storms ignite, they would like form in NW Kansas and push northeast. These storms would have the larger risk for severe weather with MUCAPE forecast to be around 2000-3500 J/kg instead of around 1000 J/kg in the west. But with 0-6 km shear also around 15- 30 kts, severe storms would likely be few and far between. Large hail up to 2.75 inches and wind gusts to 60 mph look to be the main threats. Any storms are forecast to clear the area early in the night, leaving behind cloudy skies across most of the area. Lows would be in the 60s for those under the cloud cover, but the 50s in the west if the cloud cover breaks.

Thursday, much of the Plains and Western United States is forecast to be under a broad upper trough and broad surface low. The Tri- State area is forecast to start on the edge of the low, keeping winds from the south at 15-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. However, these should weaken a bit by about 5 mph as the low expands. The low expanding is also forecast to begin pushing some of the moisture out of the area and allow for clearer skies. Temperatures are currently forecast to warm again into the 80s, though a few 90s may occur if the clouds clear out early enough in the morning. With the upper trough just upstream of the area and the surface low over the area, we will have some support for storms. The limiter is that the moisture shifting east will limit how much fuel storms will have in the area. For now, this is forecast to lead to only storm chances for the western portions of the area as storms form off the higher terrain and move east. This should also inhibit the chances for severe storms unless something moves in overnight from the north.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, zonal flow is forecast to be in place across the northern Plains. A mid level low pressure system is forecast to be near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle. Moisture is also forecast to be in place as well with a high pressure system cross the southeastern CONUS. Warm temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s remain forecast as well leading to the potential for at least isolated afternoon storm coverage. Currently not a strong signal for a favored area at this time but the pattern appears to be fairly similar to what is being observed currently. Additional diurnal storms off of the Rockies may be the most likely scenario for each afternoon. The difference appears to be the lack of upper level support which suggests that any storms that do manage to form may be rather pulsey in nature which puts any severe weather threat in question.

Through the weekend, ridging across the mountains is forecast to develop which may lead to slightly higher temperatures than currently forecast. The caveat may be that we will need to keep an eye for any disturbances along the eastern periphery of this ridge should it develop. Into early next week, troughing is forecast to redevelop across the western CONUS. Some breezier days may develop early next week with a tightening pressure gradient with the incoming trough and the lingering ridge across the area. With the increasing signal for synoptic forcing another return to a more active pattern may be possible.

AVIATION /0Z TAFS THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 346 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to largely prevail through the period for both KGLD and KMCK. A round of storms are forecast to move through the region tonight, which may lower conditions to MVFR or IFR briefly. KMCK also has a chance at seeing briefly MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning, near sunrise. Another round of storms is possible tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.