textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog may develop over portions of the area early Friday morning, mainly along and east of a line from Benkelman to Colby and Russell Springs.

- Expect a modest warming trend over the weekend with slightly above average highs in the lower 60's on Saturday and mid- upper 60's on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 400 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Through Friday Morning: Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to quickly fall into the upper 30's this evening, after sunset. This may lead to fog in eastern /lower elevation/ portions of the Goodland CWA, where light NNE low-level (925 mb) flow will maintain relatively greater boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid 30's). Current and recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS continue to suggest [1] that a NNW to SSE oriented corridor of dense fog will develop over portions of south-central Nebraska / north-central Kansas (near Hwy 283) after midnight CST, [2] that dense fog will gradually expand west toward the Hwy 25 corridor by sunrise and [3] that the corridor of dense fog will contract (erode from west and east) and dissipate during the late morning (~15-18Z Fri). Where fog develops, surface wetbulb temperatures are likely to be at-or- above freezing except, perhaps.. on the western fringe of the corridor of fog/stratus (e.g. Rawlins, Thomas and Hitchcock counties).. where slightly below freezing (~30-31F) wetbulb temperatures and fog could overlap for an hour or two on either side of sunrise. In other words, freezing fog, if any, would be brief/localized in nature.

Fri-Fri night: A weak southerly return flow regime will evolve in this period as an upper level ridge over the central CONUS progresses east toward the Mississippi River Valley. WSW flow aloft.. on the eastern periphery of shortwave energy digging S-SSE through Nevada (tonight) and western Arizona (Fri).. will foster a considerable amount of upper level cloud cover over the region during the day, especially in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties. Guidance suggests that temperatures will largely be modulated by cloud cover; via thick/opaque cirrus in western portions of the area and morning fog/stratus in eastern portions of the area. Expect near to slightly below average highs in the 50's and overnight (Sat morning) lows in the 30's. Decreasing upper level cloud cover, light surface winds and modest low-level (850-925 mb) southerly return flow may allow low stratus and/or fog to redevelop over portions of the area Fri night into Sat morning.

Sat-Sat night: WSW flow aloft (and upper level cloud cover) will shift south of the Goodland CWA as shortwave energy digging southward through western Arizona (Fri) continues southward into northern Mexico prior to stalling. Expect a slight warming trend with highs in the upper 50's to lower-mid 60's, depending on coverage/extent of morning fog and/or stratus, if present.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 256 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

An unusual upper-level flow pattern is expected late Sunday as a trough exits the central CONUS. Ensemble guidance projects meridional flow aloft for the County Warning Area (CWA) as a ridge slides in from the northern Rockies. Most model runs are now anticipating this building ridge to propagate faster to the east than prior runs. Simultaneously, the trough seems to slow down a bit as it makes its way eastward across the southern plains. Northeast upper-level winds should result as the exiting trough becomes more positively tilted than originally thought. Moving on to Monday, said ridge finally pushes the resisting trough away and the system is able to proceed with it's eastward propagation across our region. Initially, northerly flow aloft is expected Monday transitioning briefly to more of a zonal look early Tuesday as the ridge axis passes over the CWA. Weak southwest flow is then forecasted later in the day Tuesday, with zonal flow once again taking over shortly after. Guidance is now starting to lock onto a stronger ridge system beginning to influence our coverage area on Wednesday, ushering in northwest winds at the 300-500mb level.

One may wonder what is to come from this peculiar synoptic setup across the Tri-State area. The answer is likely nothing but dry conditions and seasonably pleasant temperatures as high pressure is set to take control both higher up in the atmosphere and at the surface. Furthermore, moisture content will be quite limited as dewpoints in the 30s/40s and Relative Humidity (RH) values ranging 25-55% are forecast. Surface analysis does anticipate three frontal boundaries to move through during this forecast period (one each on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday) but dry air should limit any chance for precipitation. Therefore, rain will be highly unlikely as Probability of Precipitation fall below 5% for the entire long-term forecast period.

High temperatures, as mentioned above, should be quite pleasant for this time of the year across the CWA. Daily highs in the 60s will be commonplace Sunday through the middle of next week. Overnight lows should follow a slight warming trend. Low temperatures at or above freezing on Sunday morning likely increases to upper 30s/low 40s Monday morning through Wednesday morning. Some locales may not even see morning temps fall below 42 degrees on Wednesday. It is not likely to be very windy at all going into next week as guidance outlines general 5-15 mph winds Sunday through Wednesday with some windier prone areas of eastern Colorado potentially seeing up to 20 mph sustained winds. Sunday likely is the windiest day but gusts shouldn't exceed 25 mph. RH values may dip into the low 20s Sunday/Monday for areas at or west of US-385 and 20-30% for everywhere in the CWA east of there but dry fuels are not anticipated so fire weather chances will be low. Sunday will be the only day to monitor for that but again, there's a very low chance of even elevated fire weather occurring in eastern Colorado.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 415 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

GLD: Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS suggest that LIFR fog and/or low ceiling development in south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas could extend as far west as Thomas county for a few hours on either side of sunrise Fri morning. At present, guidance suggests that the western extent of fog/ stratus will be confined 20-30+ miles E of the Goodland terminal. With this in mind, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to cirrus at or above 18,000 ft AGL. Light/variable winds will remain light throughout the TAF period, becoming southerly during the day on Fri.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS suggest that a north-south oriented corridor of dense fog and low stratus will develop over south- central Nebraska and north-central Kansas after midnight CST (~06Z), and that LIFR conditions may expand as far west as Benkelman, NE prior to sunrise (~12Z Fri). Bottom line, there is increasing confidence that an extended period of LIFR conditions associated with dense fog/stratus will affect the McCook terminal late tonight and Friday morning (~08-16Z Fri). Northerly or variable winds at 5-10 knots will remain light throughout the TAF period, shifting to the S during the day on Fri.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.