textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized critical fire weather conditions Monday.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through mid-week.

- Thursday into Friday, a breezy winter system is expected to move into the area. Breezy winds and an inch or two of snow may lead to minor travel impacts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1238 PM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

Mid level shortwave is currently moving through the area. At the surface the area is currently void of any pressure gradients leading to winds around 10-15 mph given the weak flow. Temperatures have quickly warmed into the 60s and 70s across the majority of the area with the exception of the east where dew points are a little higher and have been under some cloud cover a little longer than western portions of the area this morning. Due the lack of clouds, do think that mixing will be a little deeper than what guidance has suggested which has led me increase wind gusts mainly across western portions of the area. Do think however that these wind gusts will be mainly sporadic in nature and confined to mainly western and northern portions of the area where some pockets of critical fire weather conditions are forecast to be present. Any wind potential for today is forecast to quickly fall off as the shortwave moves through and the wind field in which the winds are mixing down from wanes leading to winds becoming light and variable.

West-southwesterly mid level flow is forecast to be in place Monday across the area. RAP and NAM cross sectional analysis both show an increase in mid/upper level moisture throughout the afternoon which looks to be associated with some 500mb vorticity maxima which does lead to validity in cloud cover forming. Have increased high temperatures for the day some to account for the west-southwest flow as high temperatures in the 60s are forecast. There may be some locally critical-critical fire weather conditions again across eastern Colorado where inverted v soundings are in place along with mixing heights of 4000-5000 feet which would mix into a 20-30 knot jet resulting in the potential for some mixing down of some 25-30 mph wind gusts. Confidence of at least one hour of critical fire weather conditions across western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties is around 50-60%, but for 3 or more hours

Tuesday, the flow becomes a bit more northwesterly as a trough begins to take form near the Baja Peninsula. A weak backdoor cold front is also forecast to move through Tuesday morning leading to the potential for some stratus across northeast portions of the forecast area. Above normal temperatures remain forecast with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Some fire weather conditions may again be on the table as a stronger jet associated with a shortwave in the northwest flow moves across northeast Colorado and into southwest Nebraska wind gusts around 30 mph at this time. RAP and NAM does try to form a layer of clouds near the 700mb level which may have an impact on temperatures and whether or not humidity values can fall further than currently forecast. More of the same on Wednesday as well as humidity falls into the mid teens again as our above normal temperature trend continues. The synoptic pattern this day however is in a transition stage so currently not seeing any signals for any winds to suggest that fire weather would be of concern.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

Bottom line up front, we have a winter system moving in Thursday. This will bring in some breezy conditions and likely some wintry mixed precipitation. Most likely timing for precipitation is 0-15Z Thursday evening/night. Snow amounts are expected to remain generally below 2 inches, but locally higher amounts up to 5 inches cannot be ruled out.

We'll start off the long term Thursday morning with a hefty mid and upper level trough approaching from the west. Near the surface, an associated low will be forming in the lee of the Rockies early in the morning Thursday. GEFS is showing a bit more of a spread regarding the north/south placement of this entire system versus 24 hours ago. If the northern route is taken, at least the southern half of the CWA will see southerly winds, leading to temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than currently forecast. Additionally, this would bring more moisture in, assisting in later precipitation. However, a more southern or central path is more likely. This would put the low somewhere over the southern CWA or south of the CWA, leading to northeasterly flow all day. This will keep temperatures in the 40s to low 50s.

Either way, during the day Thursday, the low level low will pull in a cold front from the northwest while the mid and upper level flow persist from the southwest. Looking at GFS and ECMWF cross-sections, starting at 12Z Thursday, the column will be saturated above 700 mb, with the lower levels saturating by 21-03Z Thursday evening. This will give us a chance of sprinkles/flurries throughout most of the day Thursday in the western CWA with PoPs increasing in the afternoon evening hours as the 500 mb low, with more aggressive vorticity, moves over the CWA. There is a 40-50% chance that the low levels remain dry, or as the 500 mb moves over the CWA, the mid- level moisture dries out, which would limit, if not eliminate, our precipitation potential. As it stands, the best chance for precipitation will be 0-15Z Friday, exiting to the east around 12- 15Z.

Much like our snow squall system a few weeks ago, we are seeing some signs of weak instability. GFS is showing mid-level lapse rates in the 7-8 C/km range with -5 to -12 microbars of Omega in the heart of the likely precipitation timing.

P-Type is a bit of a fickle aspect. With the bulk of the column being saturated, and temperatures aloft being well within the dendritic growth zone, snow will be formed aloft. At the surface, the 0C wetbulb isotherm floats around the surface. This leads to the potential for wintry mix precipitation to occur. Rain and snow mix looks the most likely so far, but sleet cannot be ruled out; freezing rain seems unlikely at this point. There will also be a notable potential of refreeze occurring overnight, leading to black ice Friday morning.

Winds with this system are another concern. Thursday, as the low level front moves through, there's not a lot of upper level support, but we could still gust up around 25 kts, mainly in eastern Colorado. Friday is looking to be the windier day as the entire system is moving out of the area. North-northwesterly gusts of 35-40 kts are expected and gusts up to 45-50 kts have a 10% chance of occurring. With the winds, there are some compounding hazards that need to be addressed. Blowing snow Friday morning has a ~20% chance of reducing visibility to less than a mile. If precipitation does not occur, there is a 5% chance patchy blowing dust decreases air quality and a 2% chance visibilities will drop to below 3 miles. Additionally, if the strong winds occur overnight as temperatures are dropping below freezing, there will likely not be a refreeze/black ice potential as the wind will evaporate lingering liquid water on surfaces.

There is a 5% chance we see no precipitation and keep mostly clear skies with this system. This could lead to some elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across the CWA Thursday and Friday afternoon.

Temperatures overnight Thursday in the eastern CWA will likely hover around 30, however western locations will have more prolonged CAA, so temperatures will likely cool to around 20. Friday's temperatures heavily depend on if the precipitation and the cloud cover is continuing through the midday. If it is, temperatures will be stunted in the 30s. If the sky clears out, the NBM/NDFD will be closer to accurate.

Over the weekend, temperatures will slowly warm up with Sunday warming to around 50. This could lead to some low end fire weather concerns as RH values drop to around 20%. There doesn't seem to be a major feature Sunday to lead to strong winds, which caps the fire weather potential for Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 405 PM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the period. Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming northwesterly tomorrow morning. Could see some occasional gusts around 15-20 kts at both sites between 19-22Z tomorrow afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 115 AM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

Near-record to record high temperatures are expected today. For reference, average highs in early January are 41-43F.

=============================== Record Highs for January 04 =============================== Hill City............72 in 2001 Burlington...........71 in 1987 Goodland.............70 in 2001 McCook...............70 in 1956

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.