textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday, though confidence is on the low side at this time.

- Fog may develop once again tonight and Sunday morning, and potentially Sunday night and Monday morning.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A cut off low in the southern Plains today is being picked up by an approaching shortwave trough in the northern Rockies. CAMs show convection developing along the Front Range this afternoon with upslope flow as well as across southern Kansas with the southern system. It does not appear that storms will make it into the local area from either of those sources as they gradually dissipate this evening with loss of surface heating. Moist southerly flow continues tonight with low clouds and fog developing in the overnight hours. Models point to the Kansas and Colorado border area for the best potential for fog, which could be dense once again. The low clouds and fog will gradually burn off through Sunday morning.

Shortwave ridging will build over eastern Colorado and western Kansas on Sunday, ahead of the strong system over the northern Rockies. CAMs show widely scattered convection developing along the Front Range in the afternoon once again, but also possibly along the lee trough which will be further east in the plains. Instability and shear will be very weak further west, but if a storm manages to develop on the lee trough it would be closer to the better instability and shear in place near the Kansas border. Confidence is low in that scenario given the overall lack of forcing, and only the 3-km NAM shows an isolated updraft developing further east at this time. The isolated storm chances in western areas should end by 03z with loss of heating. A surface low is forecast to move from northeast Colorado to near Goodland Sunday night. May see low clouds and fog develop once again overnight and Monday morning with moisture advecting in from the southeast into Kansas and Nebraska, but westerly winds in Colorado and immediate adjacent counties in Kansas/Nebraska my prevent it from forming in those areas.

The surface low is forecast to move south and be in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle by Monday afternoon. The central plains will have easterly upslope flow on the north side of the low. Aloft will be increasing southwesterly flow between a ridge over Texas and a strengthening closed low over Saskatchewan. There does appear to be a weak embedded wave in the afternoon that will provide some synoptic scale lift. Instability will be strongest east of Highway 25 where 2000-3000 j/kg is forecast, weakening to less than 1000 j/kg at the Colorado and Kansas border and further weakening in Colorado. Deep layer shear will be 30-40 kts with the increasing flow aloft and directional shear. So, if convection can develop the environment is supportive of supercells, especially in the better instability to the east. RRFS and REFS suggest a dry line will develop near Highway 27 which initiates convection, but the 3-km NAM has the dry line much further east into Colorado with little to no convection in the area. NBM is more supportive of the NAM at this time with broad southeasterly flow all the way to the Front Range. So unless the dry line is in the area as depicted by the RRFS the only forcing for initiation will have to come from the weak wave aloft. Given all of the uncertainty, confidence is on the low side regarding severe potential.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

***Synopsis***

Troughing at 500-mb looks to be set up across the Western United States Tuesday morning, with southwesterly flow overhead. This would be associated with a strong low pressure to the west of the County Warning Area (CWA), establishing southerly to southwesterly surface flow across the region. Model guidance is inconsistent on the development and eastward progression of the 500-mb trough, though GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance suggests that it will move overhead sometime Wednesday. When the trough does move overhead, a cold front is likely to move through the forecast area. Ensemble guidance is in favor of this upper-level trough developing into an upper-level low somewhere across South-Central Canada Thursday, and persisting through the end of the period, moving very slowly eastward with time. Guidance is uncertain on how this will impact the forecast area beyond Thursday, specifically regarding what shortwave systems will develop around the low, and how strong they will be.

***Tuesday***

With troughing to the west, conditions across the area look to become hot. Forecast highs Tuesday are currently in the upper 90s and lower 100s. Southerly to southwesterly surface flow, in addition to the hot temperatures, would support dry conditions as well. Currently, forecast relative humidities (RH) are in the lower to upper teens across most of the forecast area. As such, critical fire weather conditions could be a concern Tuesday afternoon. LREF guidance suggests that portions of Eastern Colorado have the best opportunity to see RH meeting critical fire weather criteria (15% or less), as high as a 50% chance. Additionally, this same zone has a 90% chance or better to receive wind gusts over 30 mph according to the NBM, which is well-above criteria for the hazard (25 mph or greater). Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is highest for these Eastern Colorado Counties (Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne) at around 30%. A small chance for showers also exists, though 24-hr NBM precipitation guidance shows less than a 15% chance for all areas to receive greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. The bigger risk for showers would be from dry lightning as an additional source for fire ignition.

***Wednesday-Thursday***

As the 500-mb trough moves eastward and overhead, the broad surface low would move eastward as well, allowing a cold front to traverse the area sometime on Wednesday. Forecast highs are slightly cooler than Tuesday, in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Despite these slightly cooler conditions, RH values are favored to drop even further, possibly into the single-digits in some areas. Fire weather appears to be a potential hazard again, as LREF guidance suggests that even zones as far east as the US-83 Corridor in Northwest Kansas have a 40% chance or better to see RH values meeting criteria for the hazard. NBM guidance does suggest that wind gusts may be weaker on Wednesday than Tuesday, but still shows a 1 in 3 chance across most areas of meeting criteria for critical fire weather, with as high as a 90% chance in portions of Yuma County in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is once again highest in Eastern Colorado at around 30%. Warm and dry conditions continue on Thursday, with highs forecast in the mid 80s to lower 90s, and RH as low as the lower teens. While critical fire weather may once again be possible, forecast wind gusts max out around 30 mph. NBM guidance does still show the highest chances for wind gusts meeting critical fire weather criteria across portions of Eastern Colorado, in the 60-85% range. Even so, NBM guidance often overestimates wind gusts for the CWA, which lowers confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday to around 15%. Similar to Tuesday, showers are possible both days, but have a low chance of occurrence. The greatest risk again would be from dry lightning.

***Friday-Saturday***

Again, model guidance is a bit more uncertain by Friday, specifically regarding the presence, timing, and intensity of a shortwave trough moving south-southeastward out of Canada. Precipitation may be allowed to return ahead of this shortwave, as NBM 48-hr precipitation guidance suggests up to a 45% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation between Friday and Saturday combined. The greatest of these probabilities are east of the US-83 Corridor. Hotter temperatures may be allowed to return ahead of this shortwave as well, especially with a deeper shortwave. Such a solution exists with the 12z EC deterministic model, which shows that temperatures in the 90s may be achieved ahead of a strong shortwave system Saturday afternoon. These temperatures would be around 10 degrees hotter than Saturday's current forecast temperatures in some areas, which are in the lower to upper 80s. Even so, both the temperatures and precipitation experienced Friday and Saturday are in question due to uncertainties with the shortwave.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across the area but with increasing moisture through the night am monitoring for fog and stratus overnight. Confidence is highest at MCK for IFR to LIFR ceilings and some fog. GLD is a bit more conditional as the signal has consistently remained around 30-60 miles north of the terminal but an over performance of dew points currently has my attention. Will leave GLD VFR for now but will watch closely over the next few hours. Fog and stratus are forecast to dissipate mid morning but winds are forecast to increase late morning and through the early evening hours.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.