textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy conditions continue through the end of the week.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon in Kansas.

- Hotter over the weekend with triple digits possible.

- Storm chances may return early next week as well as slightly cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1214 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Current RAP analysis continues to show ridging across the area with the northern periphery of a large low pressure system across the southern Plains nudging up into the area. At the surface a tight pressure gradient remains across eastern Colorado which is forecast to keep winds around 10-15 mph sustained through the night with lighter winds around 5-10 mph further back to the east. Mainly clear skies are forecast to continue through the night as well with the ridging remaining over the area but some scattered mid level clouds may move into the southeastern portions of the forecast area as some subtle 850mb moisture advection occurs. HREF suggests that some fog and/or low stratus may develop along the Kansas/Colorado border around sunrise but REFS and SREF are not fully buying it. If the HREF is on to something it looks like it would be due to moisture pooling up along the eastern portion of the surface pressure gradient. Confidence is only around 5-10% at this time for any fog/stratus to develop. Surface to 1km mixing ration differences remain fairly low across numerous models which suggests that dense fog would be unlikely, any fog should remain in the 2-6SM nature before quickly eroding around 14Z as mixing resumes.

Wednesday, a semi pattern change remains forecast as low pressure across the southern Plains continues to move slightly into the forecast area bringing some additional clouds across the area; especially the east. If clouds can remain thick enough then highs across eastern portions of the CWA may remain in the mid to upper 80s. If the clouds end up not being quite as thick then temperatures would rebound into the low to possibly mid 90s. I'm leaning towards the cooler and thicker cloud scenario at this time due to the continued moisture advection at 850mb along with 850mb temperatures around 20C and 925mb temperatures around 12-14C so have bumped highs down a few degrees. Guidance is a little drier as well with dew points across western portions of the area with surface to 30mb AGL dew points falling into the mid 40s across eastern Colorado. This is becoming to seem a bit more reasonable to me to start trending lower on dew points as any evapotranspiration effects from the wet previous weeks should start to wane due to the hot, dry and breezy conditions we have had for the past few days. Dew point observations that occurred Tuesday across eastern Colorado also suggests this will be the case as dew points did fall a little more than anticipated. Winds for the day are forecast to be a little less breezy than the previous few days as the 850mb jet is not quite as strong as it weakens to around 15-20 knots. A continued lack of a 700mb jet continues to suggests that any higher gusts should be fairly sporadic. Breezy winds similar to the past few night across eastern Colorado are forecast to continue as another surface trough noses back in and interacts with a strengthening low level jet.

Thursday, low pressure across the southern Plains expands breaks down our high pressure some, albeit still pushing the jet stream even further north into Canada. A signal for warmer temperatures is being seen with this however as winds currently appear to be a bit weaker along with lower dewpoints falling into the low 50s across eastern Colorado and the low 60s across eastern counties. Intensifying high pressure across the Rockies also supports this as well. High temperatures for the day are currently in the low 90s but could see a scenario where they rise into the mid 90s if lower dew points can occur. Winds for the day however look to remain around 10- 15 mph due to the weak 850mb jet and the surface trough pushing a bit further east. Similar to what was said on the prior discussion do see the potential for some weak and isolated showers/storm potential for the area Thursday afternoon with some subtle 700 and 500mb vorticity along/near the Kansas/Colorado line and also further to the east with the surface trough. Anything near the state line would be rather high based with dew point depressions of 20-30 degrees. Guidance suggests weak MUCAPE in place along with PWATS of 0.8-0.9 would lead to some concern for a strike or two of dry lighting. Further to the east PWATS do look to be quite a bit higher of 1.1-1.2 inches according to the 21Z RAP. Lighting a localized downpours would be the main concerns as well with this activity. Severe weather would be very unlikely with this activity with the weak mid level winds and meager lapse rates currently forecast to be in place. With minimal shear in place any storms would be short lived and nearly stationary with with no mid level flow in place.

High pressure continues to expand over the Rockies on Friday as a 594 dam height sets up over the Rockies and another 594- 597 dam sets up from northern Nebraska and into the Mid Atlantic. For the CWA is forecast to continue to warm the area up into the mid 90s. Confidence is fairly high in the is as the GEFS, ECMWF and CMC ensembles are all in agreement with the location. Winds are forecast to be much lighter as subsidence and lack of surface features and jets are over the area with winds remaining around 10 mph. This should also help to keep the overall air temperature from rising much more than forecast despite the favored heights for warmer temperatures as weak winds would favor lesser mixing of warmer air aloft to the surface.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A strong ridge over the northern Rockies early in the period will slowly move southward, and will be located over the central and southern Rockies by the end of the period. Hot and dry conditions will prevail through the weekend given the proximity to the ridge, with triple digit temperatures possible. Models have backed off from what was already low precipitation chances they were showing for the weekend. Instead, will need to wait for the ridge to move far enough south for disturbances moving over the top to reach the area. That should start to occur Monday and Tuesday, as convection initiates in Colorado in the afternoon and then moves east through the early evening hours. There may be a weak back door cold front in the mix as well with easterly upslope winds forecast both days. Models show weak instability on Monday with 20-30 kts of deep layer shear, but little to no instability on Tuesday, perhaps due to cloud cover with the easterly winds. This suggests a low probability of severe storms, primarily on Monday if the instability can materialize. Temperatures may cool slightly depending on the timing of the front, but there is increasing spread in the ensemble temperatures both Monday and Tuesday leading to low confidence in just how much cooling may occur.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1104 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue for each terminal. There may be a window around 11Z where some patchy fog could develop as some weak moisture pools along the edge of a boundary but current thinking is that a brief period of 6-9sm visibilities could occur; ultimately remaining VFR. Winds are forecast to increase again around 14-15Z being sustained at 15 knots along with the potential for some gusts up to 25 knots during the afternoon. A subtle wind shift from the southeast to the south is forecast overnight before shifting southeast again during the day Wednesday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.