textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Southerly winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph is possible for portions of the eastern Colorado Counties this morning into the early afternoon hours.

- Chances of rain become widespread late tonight, increasing to as much as a medium to likely (60-90%) chance by Tuesday afternoon.

- Heavy rain is expected by Tuesday afternoon, especially along/south I-70 and along/east US-83, where 1.5 to 2.0 inches, or more, are expected by Wednesday morning.

- A Slight (level 2/4) to Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of isolated flash flooding is possible across the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially for the southern-most forecast counties in east-central Kansas that received heavy rainfall this past week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 326 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas of light fog and some patchy dense fog this morning will dissipate later this morning as winds increase. A weak wave moving over the Colorado Rockies has kicked off some scattered showers over northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle. This activity will dissipate by mid-morning as the wave lifts north.

This weeks wet pattern is starting to take shape today water vapor satellite imagery shows a negatively trough digging southwards across California this morning and Hurricane Polo spinning off the Baja coast. In addition, a plume of sub-tropical/tropical moisture (remnants of Odalys) is being drawn up across southern California and into the Desert Southwest between the aforementioned trough and hurricane. Through the remainder of today, this trough will "close off" before moving into the lower Colorado River Valley. Hurricane Polo will move across Baja and rapidly fall apart as it moves inland....eventually merging with the more dominant southwesterly flow aloft. Most of the mid to long-range models are in fairly good agreement with the timing and the position of the mid/upper trough as it moves across the western states, though the NAM does dig the trough a bit further south. By early Wednesday, the models start to diverge more on the placement of the mid/upper low with the GFS and Canadian keeping the low further south. The solutions further diverge as the GFS lifts the low into the Plains more quickly before transitioning into an open wave later in the week. Regardless of which solution ultimately prevails, the Tri-State area can expect to see another widespread rainfall event this week...beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through Thursday.

For today into tonight... A tightening pressure gradient over the High Plains, as the lee trough deepens, will result in increasing south to southeasterly surface winds this morning and afternoon. The strongest winds will be along the CO/KS border where southerly winds may gust as high as 40-45 mph. A weak shortwave trough will move through the broader southwesterly flow aloft and may help to kick off some thunderstorms over northeast Colorado. CAM models differ quite a bit on CAPE values this afternoon, but given increasing cloud cover through the day limiting instability, expect the thunderstorms to initiate as mid-level jet noses in. Any convection will quickly move off to the northeast and more widespread rainfall will begin to overspread the region from southwest to northeast Tuesday morning. A surface front, associated with the incoming system, will slowly push eastwards tomorrow...becoming nearly stationary by Tuesday afternoon. Several rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall will develop along this front as a deep layer of moisture is pulled over the region. A surface low associated with the remnants of Polo will lift across New Mexico/Panhandles towards SE Colorado/SW Kansas late Tuesday into Wednesday. In response, the front will begin to to lift and out of the area. Depending on which model verifies and where the surface low actually tracks, will impact rainfall amounts for Wednesday and Thursday. Right now, there is a good probability (60-80%) that most of the forecast area will see widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches through Thursday, with some locally higher amounts possible. As such, in localized flooding will be a concern this week, especially for areas in east-central Kansas where heavier rainfall over the past week has led to more saturated soils.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 310 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A variety of weather is in store for the Tri-State area through Sunday. The long term period will start off wet and windy until sunny skies return Friday morning. Temperatures will be consistent with high temperatures forecast in the 60s to 70s Wednesday through Sunday.

Wednesday morning, our region is forecast to remain in a mostly southwest upper-level flow with a jet streak overhead. This jet streak is expected to remain over the region through Thursday creating windy afternoons. Gusts from 30 to 45 mph are possible for the area, with our Colorado counties being on the higher end. There is also a cut off low in southwest CONUS that is forecast to traverse east that will eventually take us out of our rainy pattern. Models are showing anywhere from 1-3 inches of rain Wednesday through Thursday evening with a band of localized heavier rainfall setting up somewhere in the county warning area (CWA). The speed and track of the upper-level cut off low and where a surface low sets up in western Kansas will ultimately determine precipitation amounts. Severe weather is not anticipated due to lack of instabilty in the environment. Lapse rates are shallow, shear is weak and CAPE is lacking. Wednesday evening would be our best chance for weak thunderstorms based on GFS ensembles showing <10% chance of CAPE values greater than 500 J/kg. Low confidence (<10%) that any weak thunderstorms are able to form. Models are in a bit of disagreement on how quickly this low will move on, but rainy conditions for the CWA are forecast to end sometime Thursday evening.

Friday, sunny skies return to the CWA as we enter a weak northwesterly to zonal upper-level pattern. Precipitation is not expected as Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are less than 5% for the Tri- State area. A weak jet streak may set up over the area Friday and remain through the weekend. This could cause some windy conditions for our Colorado counties with afternoon gusts around 30 mph possible. Fire weather is not a concern at this time due to steady precipitation expected through the week and relative humidity (RH) values generally forecast over 30%.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through 06Z, short of ceilings around 1500-2500ft for the first two hours of the period. A few showers and storms are possible after 23Z, but the overall chance is closer to 20% and likely stay west of the terminals. Around 06Z, LLWS is forecast at both terminals as the low level jet is forecast to develop around 400ft from the south with speeds around 45ft. The jet should fade through the night and end by 14Z. After 09Z, the next system is forecast to begin pushing in from the south, bringing chances for fog, low ceilings and storms. For the remainder of the period, be alert for varying conditions with intermittent showers and fog forming and dissipating.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.