textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Triple digit heat returns today, but there's a gradual cool- down through Wednesday.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms return over the next couple days. Winds are the primary threat, but may lead to blowing dust.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 112 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The next couple of days will be dominated by a 500 mb high over Texas that flattens out and covers most of the southern CONUS, and a low over the northwestern CONUS, creating southwesterly flow over the CWA. The high looks to be more in control at this level, limiting the organized severe weather potential. Down at 850 mb, a high near the Great Lakes will extend an inverted ridge southward as a low slowly moves over the northern Rockies. These features will promote hot temperatures and put a stationary front over the CWA today, leading to late afternoon and evening convection. Tomorrow looks to be a repeat, but the front will have been able to move southeast about 100 miles.

Today, the 850 mb low looks to be moving over the Dakotas, leading to a southwesterly LLJ over central Kansas. The aforementioned front looks to setup stretching from Parks, NE to Flagler, CO. Areas southeast of the front will have south-southwesterly winds gusting around 25-40 kts throughout the day, promoting down-slope warming, pushing temperatures into the upper 90s and low 100s. There is a 40% chance locations along and east of KS 23 will see heat indices of 105+. Locations to the northwest of and under the front will still warm into the 90s, but winds will be much weaker.

With the warm and breezy conditions, there is a threat of blowing dust today starting in the late morning. Most likely, we will see air quality reduced from high-lofted blowing dust and a roughly 15% chance of seeing a plume or two reducing visibility under 1 mile. Visibility reducing blowing dust is more likely before 21Z. As we get later into the afternoon, the mixing height gets rapidly deeper, meaning the dust will have an easier time to be lofted far away from the surface. This is only the synoptic threat for blowing dust, there is also the threat of convectively driven blowing dust, which will be discussed below.

We have two initiation triggers for convection this afternoon and evening. The first will be the stationary boundary mentioned earlier. This could fire off storms as early as 20Z, with winds up to 65 MPH being the primary threat. If winds this strong are able to form, blowing dust would occur, potentially a short-lived haboob with 1/4 mile visibility. Additionally, with storms firing off a stationary boundary, with very steep lapse rates, and fairly slow movements, there will be a chance for landspouts to form from these storms.

The second trigger is from a weak 500 mb shortwave trough in eastern Colorado. This would fire off storms in eastern Colorado and push them northeast along or to the northwest of the stationary front. Winds up to 75 MPH would possible if they can organize into a MCS. This would also increase the blowing dust threat. There is slightly better shear, so there will be a threat for 1 inch hail. This would likely fire off around 0Z. Severe impacts look to drop below 5% by 6Z, but lingering storms are possible until mid-morning Tuesday. Overnight lows look to cool into the 60s to low 70s, much as previous nights have been.

With most of these storms moving over the same area this afternoon and into the overnight hours, there is a 2-5% chance locations along where the boundary sets up will see localized flooding. Even with training storms, the convection must overcome very dry low-level and a parched ground to produce flooding.

Early Tuesday morning and into the midday, the front will reposition itself in the southeastern CWA, closer to Norton, KS to Tribune, KS. Much like Monday, temperatures will be warmer to the southeast, likely in the upper 90s, and cooler to the northwest, upper 80s to mid 90s. Precise positioning of the front is still up in the air, but strong to severe convection potential returns along and to the northwest of the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. While winds over 50 MPH from storms may produce blowing dust, synoptic winds look to remain under 25 kts, so blowing dust during the day is unlikely. Start time for convection along the boundary looks to be around 20-22Z and last until around 3-6Z.

There is a second area of severe convection concern Tuesday evening coming from eastern Colorado. Once again, a 500 mb shortwave trough is the forcing for this potential, entering the CWA around 3Z. The NAMNest has this storm around the I-70 to U.S. 40 area, but the RAP has it in southwestern Kansas. However, all hazards would be possible with this storm, if it does form. We'll need to keep a close eye on what the environment does after the stronger convection tonight.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 233 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thursday morning, a ridge looks to be overhead at 500-mb, with a surface high to the east. At the same time, ensemble guidance is consistent with a surface low across South-Central Canada and portions of the Northern United States. This would favor southerly surface flow across the forecast region. Forecast temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 80s across the forecast region. NBM guidance does suggest a 20% chance or greater across a large portion of the forecast area that high temperatures will reach back into the 90s, with a near 50% chance across localized portions of the Tri- State Area. However, in order for this to occur, winds and solar heating would need to increase. LREF guidance suggests that there is around a 50-60% chance that cloud cover will remain below 20% coverage, with the NBM suggesting an 80-90% chance for the same. In addition, the surface high to the east and surface low to the north both look to be in favorable positions relative to the upper level flow for intensification, which could enhance the southerly flow across the forecast area. If these conditions can be met, hot conditions may redevelop across the area Thursday.

By Friday, upper level troughing looks to be pushing into the United States from the northwest. Winds are forecast to be out of the north to northwest as the leading edge of a high protrudes into the Central High Plains during the afternoon. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 90s despite the favored northerly component to the surface flow, as NBM guidance shows a 50% chance or higher that winds will remain below 10 mph, particularly across Northwest Kansas. Guidance is also in favor of low cloud cover, which would allow solar heating to override the effects of the northerly surface flow. The biggest point to note is that relative humidities are forecast to drop into the lower 20s and possibly high teens across portions of Eastern Colorado. This could indicate the possibility for localized fire weather conditions, especially across Yuma County in Colorado where NBM guidance suggests up to a 2 in 3 chance that winds will reach or exceed 25 mph (one of the thresholds for fire weather). This will be a trend to keep an eye on as we approach the upcoming weekend.

Troughing is forecast to continue approaching the forecast area going into Saturday. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s and lower 90s on Saturday ahead of the trough. Lee cyclogenesis is possible at the leading edge of the trough as it crosses the Colorado Rockies, which could aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening and overnight. Severe thunderstorms seem unlikely, as LREF guidance suggests that storms will only have a few hundred J/kg of surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) to take advantage of. All areas have a 30% chance or less of receiving greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation from these storms based on 24 hr precipitation guidance from the NBM.

Temperatures are expected to fall once the trough passes over the forecast area, though the timing is very uncertain at this time. The trough may pass through as early as Sunday, which is reflected in the forecast highs of the upper 70s and mid 80s. However, as long as the trough remains west of the forecast area, similar conditions to Saturday could be expected. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Sunday as well, though chances are not much better than that of Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1110 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KMCK and KGLD, although some storms tomorrow evening may briefly impact the area. Overnight, winds will favor an eastern component, but may be somewhat variable, especially for KMCK. There is also a 25% chance KMCK has some LLWS around sunrise, however it's more likely that the wind shear will be too diffuse to meet LLWS criteria. Either way, winds from the southwest may gust around 30 kts around 400-800 feet AGL. Around sunrise, the winds are expected to start mixing down to the surface again, allowing gusts in the 25-35, potentially 40 kts range throughout the day. Storms may begin impacting the sites around 1Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.