textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for eastern Colorado until 9 PM.

- Severe storms capable of producing 2 inch diameter hail and 70 mph wind gusts are possible during the afternoon and evening hours today through Wednesday.

- Locations that received heavy rain during the past 24-48 hours are more prone to experience flash flooding, should additional heavy rain occur this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 209 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Today, the northwesterly flow aloft persists and sends another shortwave across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Highs look to warm into the mid 70s in the northeastern CWA and mid 80s in the southwestern CWA. Convection looks to fire off the front range and Palmer Divide around 21-23Z and move east into the area. The storms look to develop in two main clusters. The first is near the I-70 corridor and the other cluster looks to fire off in the Nebraska panhandle. The first cluster looks to move to the east then southeast as it approaches the CO/KS border. the other cluster looks to be moving southeast for most of the event. Both cluster will have the potential for producing hail up around 2-3 inches, winds in the 50-65 MPH range, and a few brief tornadoes. There is an additional flooding threat; more information can be found in the hydro section below. NAMNest is showing the northern cluster forming more into a bowing line, which could support winds in the 70-80 MPH range. Peak timing for severe convection will be 23-5Z, but additional convection is likely overnight.

Additional sub-severe convection looks to trail these storms and linger into the overnight hours. However, we are seeing CAMs suggesting we keep up to 2,000 J/kg CAPE and 30+ kts of effective shear. This suggests additional strong to severe storms may form overnight, especially in the early morning time, near 9-15Z. Hail in the 1-2 inch range would be the most likely threat, but there will be a chance for winds up around 60 MPH. The 12Z NAMNest is even showing this threat persisting into the midday Tuesday along the eastern CWA. However, this seems to be an outlier and the best severe risk looks to be around 12Z. Location could be anywhere along and east of KS 25 with south-southeast moving storms. Lows tonight look to cool into the 50s, maybe low 60s. Fog and stratus look to for where there is not ongoing convection.

Tomorrow, the pattern continues as another shortwave trough rides the northwesterly flow. Highs look to warm into the mid 70s and mid 80s. Storms look to fire in eastern Colorado around 21-00Z and progress to the east-southeast. Hazards look to mainly include hail up to 3 inches, winds up to 70 MPH, and a slight tornado threat for eastern Colorado. Peak severe timing look to be around 23-5Z. It's worth noting, if the 12Z NAMNest plays out and there is strong convection through the midday, the evening severe threat is dramatically lower.

Additional showers may persist overnight, but strong to severe storms are not likely. Lows look to cool into the mid 50s to low 60s with fog and stratus likely making a return.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 126 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Wednesday and Thursday for the county warning area (CWA). Our region is forecast to be in a mostly zonal flow with multiple shortwaves traversing through the area. Severe weather is possible for the CWA with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) from 60-90% Wednesday and Thursday. The environment is moderately unstable with around 1500- 2500 J/kg of CAPE and 20-40 knots of deep-layer shear. Supercells with large hail and strong winds are possible withs storms that develop. Flooding will also be a concern since the entire CWA has received substantial rain recently.

Friday, we enter more of a weak ridging pattern with an incoming trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Expect sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 80s. Saturday through the end of the forecast period continues to warm with high temperatures forecast in the mid to high 90s for the CWA.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 356 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Conditions have improved across the region and VFR conditions have returned. Southeasterly winds for at least KGLD look to continue gusting into the 20-25 kts mark this afternoon. KMCK is starting to have occasional gusts above 20 kts, but these are expected to be fairly infrequent. Storms are expected across the region this evening and possible again tomorrow morning. This part of the forecast remains very fluid, so keep a close eye on future updated and observations. Around 9Z, MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to return to both KGLD and KMCK, potentially lifting in the mid-morning, depending on precipitation.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 209 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Through Thursday, we are looking at near daily chances of convection as PWATs range around 0.9-1.75 inch. We are also expecting 0C level to be around 15,000 feet AGL, leading to deep melting layers, promoting efficient rainfall producing storms.

A Flood Watch has been issued for Dundy, Hitchcock, Cheyenne (KS), Rawlins and Decatur counties until Tuesday morning. Over the past 48 hours, 3-6 inches of rain has fallen in the area, leading to flooding. Additional storms are expected this evening and overnight, which may compound the flooding issue. Two clusters of storms are forecast today, with the northern cluster having a 50-60% chance of adding 0.5-2.5 inches of rainfall in the Watched area.

There is a second chance of storms overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning. Confidence for these storms' locations and intensity is low, if they even form. However, there is a 15% chance they occur over the Watched area, leading to yet more precipitation.

Tuesday, another round of storms is forecast to impact the Tri-State area. Intensity and location are still up in the air, based on today's storms and how much convection occurs early Tuesday morning.

Through at least Thursday, there are returning chances of precipitation across the CWA.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ001>003. CO...None. NE...Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079-080.