textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A 10-20% chance of some fog around sunrise Saturday.

- Dry conditions and near average temperatures expected over the weekend.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1224 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A surface high is in place across southern portions of the area which is leading to a weakening trend of current storms across Greeley and Wichita county. Another 500mb vorticity maxima is ejecting off the Rockies currently leading to some additional showers and storms but with the mean flow being to the southeast current thinking is that this should remain just outside of the forecast area. Overnight some weak 500 and 250mb jets are forecast to be on the outer edges of the forecast area but the CWA into the right entrance of each respective jet. A decaying 850mb jet is also forecast to be in place as well so think with all of these jets and dew points continuing to remain in the mid to upper 60s that some spotty pulse storms could develop along and east of a line from St. Francis to Leoti. Confidence storm development is around 20-25%. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity as forecast soundings suggests MUCAPE of 500-800 j/kg along with 10-20 knots of 0-6km shear.

On the back end of the surface high winds are forecast to remain light and variable. If the storms do not develop then fog with most likely visibilities in the 4-7sm range could develop for a few hours around sunrise east of Highway 27. Confidence in fog formation is only around 10-20% so will be leaving out of the forecast for now with the exception being across Red Willow into northern Decatur and Norton county where winds are forecast to be the lightest and having longer residency in clear skies. However some cloud cover from the south is moving northward which may interfere with any fog or stratus formation.

Saturday, a large high begins to develop across the western CONUS. At the surface a pressure gradient develops along the Kansas/Colorado state line. Forecast soundings suggest that mainly a breezy sustained wind threat looks to develop with winds from the southeast around 15-20 mph. Weaker winds are forecast above the mixing layer which should help eliminate any potential higher gust threat. Highs for the day are forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s as dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s are forecast to remain in place across the area. Am noticing a 500mb vort max moving north to south across eastern Colorado during the afternoon hours which may lead to a rogue afternoon thunderstorm. Severe weather is not expected should a storm develop. Confidence in a storm is around 5% at this time.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 129 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a 500-mb ridge will be overhead throughout the long term forecast period. High temperatures are forecast to be primarily in the lower 90s through Wednesday afternoon. Relative humidities (RH) look to steadily drop throughout the period, but are forecast to remain above 20% across the area. This would keep heat index values in the upper 80s and lower 90s at least through Wednesday afternoon, well below the threshold for a Heat Advisory (Heat Index greater than 105 degrees).

Forecast guidance shows high temperatures highest toward the end of next week, in the mid 90s Thursday and Friday. This may be linked to a stronger upper-level trough beginning to break down the longwave ridge across the Western United States. However, there is uncertainty regarding the strength and track of this trough, in addition to whether it will actually be successful in breaking down the ridge. If this feature can break down the ridge a bit and move more into the Northern United States, increased southerly flow ahead of a surface low may allow for the slight temperature increase. This could aid in RH values dropping into the lower 20s across portions of East- Central Colorado. While this is above critical fire weather criteria, it will be something to keep an eye on, as fuels have remained relatively dry across this zone despite recent rainfall.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1115 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Currently VFR conditions are forecast for each terminal but have some concerns for stratus and perhaps some patchy fog development through sunrise. Very moist conditions with falling dew point depressions and light winds are ongoing and looking upstream into central Nebraska am already seeing some fog development. RRFS and RAP soundings both suggest falling LCL's as well through 13Z for each terminal so am opting to include IFR to LIFR conditions in this set of TAFS. Stratus seems to be the most likely outcome with the exception of MCK where the lightest winds are forecast to setup at. If current clouds do not break enough then stratus or fog may not even be a concern. There is a less than 5% chance that some showers or a rogue storm impacts either terminal overnight as well. Winds are forecast to increase late Saturday morning through the afternoon with sustained winds around 15-20 mph.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.