textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect cooler temperatures and predominantly dry conditions through the weekend.

- Wednesday's high temperatures may get to above 100 degrees and may pose a fire weather threat.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1244 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

This morning, temperatures look to cool to around 50 and some isolated showers may move through the CWA, but chances are less than 10%.

The winds today finally take a break and gusts look to remain under 20 kts as a high pressure system moves across Nebraska. Highs will warm into the low 70s. Overall, today looks to be a pleasant, cloudy day, with some showers in the afternoon. Looking at 300 K, there is a front that sweeps through the CWA in the afternoon. This has a roughly 20% chance of producing some showers and weak storms along and east of U.S. 83 around and after 21Z. As the high retreats in the late afternoon and evening, additional showers and storms may form off the Palmer Divide and move into the western CWA. Neither of these chances of precipitation are expected to be severe.

The showers coming off the Palmer Divide look to be sustained by a weak 500 mb shortwave. This precipitation is forecast to persist overnight into Monday morning. Lows look to cool to around 50.

Monday, scattered lingering showers will persist through the morning, but will clear out during the midday. Temperatures will warm to around 80.

Monday evening and overnight, the high will be moving over the Southern-Mississippi River Valley as a low comes out of southern Colorado. This will allow southerly wind to flow into the CWA. This will let temperatures remain in the 50s and push additional moisture into the CWA. This may lead to some patchy fog and stratus Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The upper pattern for Tuesday still has the ridge off the Pacific- Northwest and over our area the flow is from the northwest. The high temperatures are currently forecast to be in the mid 80s and lower 90s range. The winds remain calm and gusts tame. As for precipitation chances, PoPs are currently showing 5-10% chance and with there being CAPE less than 500 J/kg, these would likely just be pop-up rain showers if anything were to develop.

Wednesday, still looks to have a concern for the high temperatures and fire weather. The high temperatures for the day are currently forecast to be in the high 90s to low 100s. Looking at Guidance the probability of exceeding 100 for the day is around 20-45%. The maximum temperatures that could be seen are 100-105 degrees with a 10-20% chance of exceeding 105. These high temperatures around or above 100 still would be south of I-70 and east of KS Hwy 25. The lows for Wednesday also look to be above normal with the EFI SOT showing values in the 0.6-0.7 for Yuma County. Currently the lows are forecast to be in the mid to high 60s.

The Fire Weather Concerns are present for the majority of the County Warning Area (CWA) and the main timing focus is in the morning to afternoon hours on Wednesday. Winds look to be from northwest in the morning hours then shifting around midday to be from the northeast. Sustained winds are forecast to be in the 20-30 mph range. The Gusts are forecast to be in the 30-45 mph range. One thing to note, Guidance is disagreeing on the peak gust speeds. The NBM is currently favoring the higher values with a 15-35% chance of seeing gusts exceeding 50 mph. The LREF has the gusts has a 10-20% chance of exceeding 40 mph. Moving on to the Relative Humidity (RH) values, the majority of the CWA looks to get below 15%. The lowest RH values look to be west of KS Hwy 27, and values in single digits for Cheyenne County in Colorado. Moving to GFDI, there are values 50+ for mainly Yuma and Kit Carson counties in CO. This would indicate very high fire growth. The main uncertainty would be are the ingredients/criteria for Critical Fire Weather being met at the same time. The higher gusts are more favored for Yuma and the northern parts of Kit Carson in the morning, but the RH values do not begin to decrease until the afternoon and the lowest values favor Cheyenne County in Colorado. One last thing to note, is this is about 5 days out, but there is signal for at least there being Elevated Fire Weather present and currently 30-40% that conditions will meet Red Flag Criteria at some point in the day.

One other hazard that maybe present Wednesday, is localized blowing dust. After looking at Guidance the conditions are there for plumes of blowing dust. Given the 2-2.5 C/km is higher than the threshold, any dust should get mixed up into atmosphere and could create air quality issues and visibility could get reduced down to a mile.

For the extended part of the week. The upper pattern transitions to more zonal flow with the winds coming from the west-northwest. During this period there could be some shortwave disturbances that could bring us some precipitation. Thursday through Saturday temperatures look to be in the mid 80s to high 90s. Thursday does have a cool down, as there is a cold front moving into very late Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning. This cold front should bring the highs down to the mid 80s. The winds and gusts both show some signs of there being gusts up to 30 mph but it varies day to day. As for precipation chances, Friday has the strongest signal for showers/storms. Friday's SFC-CAPE values, from Guidance, are around the 1000-1500 J/kg for the mean. The 90th percentile for both the NBM and LREF are around the 1500-2000 J/kg range. These values would be supportive of showers/storms. The NCAR AI NWP Convective Hazard Forecast does have some forecasts showing a 5-15% chance for severe hazards. Granted this is still about a week away and a fair amount can change.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. At KMCK, winds will remain fairly weak and favor a northwesterly direction. At KGLD, winds will weaken and become light and variable after 9-10Z. Scattered showers have a 10-15% chance moving across the region Sunday afternoon and evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.