textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible each day through the upcoming weekend, mainly in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border areas. Weak flow aloft will limit severe potential, but an occasional marginally severe storm is possible.

- Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Today-Tonight: Ridging aloft will persist over the Tri-State area.. with the mid-latitude westerlies relegated to higher latitudes (Dakotas northward, ~45-55N). Meanwhile, shortwave energy trapped beneath the ridge in TX will evolve into a modest cut-off low that essentially meanders in place over central TX. Expect conditions similar to yesterday, albeit with relatively breezier (~15-20 mph) S winds and a potential for scattered -unorganized- diurnal convection, mainly in northeast CO late this afternoon (23-03Z).. when and where forecast soundings indicate marginal high-based diurnal destabilization (~500-1000 J/kg mlcape) in the presence of little or no convective inhibition and weak low-level convergence within a modest, baggy thermal trough. Further east, beneath the lingering upper level ridge over the Central Plains.. and increasingly subsident environment (with southern and eastern extent into KS) on the NW fringe of the cut-off low over the Southern Plains.. where forcing will be absent and convective inhibition likely to persist through peak heating, convective development is unlikely.. and the presence of weak (5-15 knot) WSW-SW steering flow suggests that diurnal convection in CO will be hard-pressed to progress downstream into Kansas prior to sunset / nocturnal stabilization. Seasonably strong dcape will foster a potential for brief, localized downbursts in association with -any- convection.

Thu-Thu night: Relatively little change in the overall synoptic pattern compared to today, except that increasing low- level moisture (850 mb dewpoints ~10C, versus ~5C today).. courtesy of persistent southerly flow.. will foster relatively stronger diurnal destabilization (~1000-1500 J/kg mlcape). Expect sensible weather conditions analogous to today, albeit with relatively stronger convective updrafts. Weak mid-upper level flow and modest (15-25 knot) effective deep layer shear suggest unorganized or multicellular convection and marginal/low-end severe weather potential.. mainly in northeast CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties ~23-03Z.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Anticyclone over the Four Corners will strengthen and expand through Sunday, then retreat south as a trough digs into the Desert Southwest early next week. Disturbances rotating around the feature will continue the daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A cold front on Monday may try to move into or through the area, pushing the better instability south but also providing a focus for convection. It remains highly uncertain as to where the front will be on Monday. It appears to wash out or return north on Tuesday, again with a high degree of uncertainty on the details. Also to note, the models do show a slow increase in the deep layer shear through the period, from around 30 kts on Saturday to 30-40 kts Sunday through Tuesday, due to a modest increase in winds around the anticyclone. This may result in better organized updrafts and a slight increase in the severe risk.

Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend with highs in the 90s, then watching to see the impact, if any, on the potential cold front on temperatures Monday and Tuesday, possibly returning highs closer to normal. Lows continue in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

GLD: Low-level wind shear associated with a 45-50 knot southerly low-level jet (per KGLD velocity data at 0440Z this evening) will end an hour or two on either side of sunrise. S to SSW winds at 10-15 knots will increase to 15-20 knots shortly after sunrise (~14Z) and persist through early- mid afternoon.. decreasing to 10-15 knots during the late afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. While an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the late afternoon (~00-03Z Thu).. confidence is low that scattered convective development in northeast CO will progress eastward across the CO-KS border prior to dissipating.

MCK: Low-level wind shear associated with a 45-50 knot southerly low-level jet will end an hour or two after sunrise. S to SSW winds at 10-15 knots will increase to 15-20 knots shortly after sunrise (~14Z).. perhaps gusting to ~25-30 knots for several hours during the late morning. S to SW winds will decrease to 10-15 knots around sunset Wed evening. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. While an isolated decaying thunderstorm cannot entirely be ruled out during the evening (~01-04Z Thu).. guidance suggests that convective development will likely be confined well W and/or NW of the McCook terminal.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.