textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Low (30%) chance for dense fog redevelopment over eastern portions of Red Willow, Norton, Graham and Gove counties early Saturday morning.

- Expect a modest warming trend over the weekend with slightly above average highs in the 60's.

- Near average temperatures with highs in the 60s and light winds are forecast for much of the next week. No precipitation is also forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 206 AM MST Sat Nov 7 2026

A weak upper level pattern is in place over the forecast area, as the jet stream is situated across the Northern United States and Southern Canada. There is an upper low across the Desert Southwest with a modest 50-65 kt jet streak on its trailing edge, allowing it to dig further south throughout the day today. This feature is expected to remain to the south of the area through Monday night.

The primary concern right now is for fog development, particularly along the U.S. Highway 283 Corridor. So far, dense fog has not been able to develop, as upper level cloud cover at the leading edge of a positively tilted trough axis is in place. Even so, visibilities have been able to fall as low as 1.25 miles in Norton as of 08Z (2 am CST). The most likely timeframe for dense fog to form will be between 4 and 8 CST, when cloud cover is expected to fully pass the area and allow radiational cooling to dominate.

The weak upper pattern over the forecast area will promote relatively calm conditions today, with sustained winds forecast 10 MPH or less. Additionally, subsidence due to increasing upper level ridging will keep cloud cover to a minimum during the morning and afternoon. As such, high temperatures are forecast in the 60s. A slight southward dip in the jet stream Saturday evening will allow cloud cover to briefly increase ahead of a weak cold front. This would keep low temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s across most of the area, except across portions of Northeast Colorado and very far Southwest Nebraska where lows in the low to mid 30s are expected. There will be an opportunity for fog to develop in areas where temperatures are expected to fall the most, though dew points are forecast to be below freezing, suggesting fog is unlikely tonight (10% chance).

Similar conditions to Saturday are expected Sunday and Monday, as REFS and LREF guidance suggest clear skies throughout this period. Sunny conditions will continue to promote temperatures in the 60s, and perhaps some isolated 70s. There may be some better fog potential Sunday and Monday due to reduced cloud cover during the evening and night hours, though guidance is inconsistent on an exact location or intensity. Additionally, NBM guidance shows lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 30s, which would still suggest a lower chance for fog development.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1208 AM MST Sat Nov 7 2026

The long term is forecast to start with an upper trough swinging through the Plains and Eastern United States. For now, it looks like the trough will swing late enough that there won't be much impact on Tuesday. Highs are forecast to reach the 60s again underneath mostly sunny skies and light winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be under the influence of the upper trough as a reinforcing wave moves in from the Great Lakes around Thursday. High temperatures are forecast to still be in the 60s, though maybe a bit cooler compared to Tuesday. If the trough axis digs farther west into the area (30% chances), then highs would likely be a bit cooler in the 50s. We could also see more cloud cover with higher level moisture moving through. Otherwise, winds should be light with a weak pressure gradient in place and no precipitation with dry low and mid levels forecast.

Friday and into Saturday, upper level ridging is forecast to push in from the west and set up over the region. While likely either slightly split and/or broad, we should see temperatures warm a bit more that the prior days. For now, lows 60s is forecast, but highs near 70 would be possible if the cold air mass pushes out early Friday. Winds should remain light and no precipitation is forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 422 AM MST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. There is a patch of fog that has developed ENE of KMCK, producing visibilities 1/2 to 1/4 mile. However, surface observations and satellite show fog is not encroaching westward toward the terminal, as light winds out of the west are bringing in drier air while also pushing fog further east. As such, confidence continues to be low (5-10%) that dense fog pushes into KMCK. Otherwise, light winds primarily out of the west are expected for both KGLD and KMCK through the period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.