textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold Weather Advisory is in effect until late Monday morning for the entire Tri-State area.

- Another round of light snow (< 1") is expected in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border areas between ~4-11 pm MST. Locally higher amounts (~1-3") cannot be ruled out in eastern CO, where snow may be accompanied by 15-25 mph northeast winds. If locally heavier snow were to develop along the I-70 corridor in eastern CO, hazardous travel conditions would likely be exacerbated by blowing snow.

- The ongoing cold snap will end by early Monday afternoon. A gradual warming trend will follow, through midweek.

- Localized blowing snow is possible Monday afternoon, when southwest winds could gust up to 30 mph, at times.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 225 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Today-Tonight: At 09Z (2 am MST) this morning.. Oberlin, Norton, Hill City and Colby were reporting air temperatures ranging from -9 to -15F (coldest observations within several hundred miles in any direction), cold enough, that.. light (5-10 mph) winds have yielded extreme wind chill readings as low as -27 to -32F. Elsewhere, air temperatures ranged from 0 to -5F with wind chill readings around -15 to -20F. The Cold Weather Advisory has been extended (in time), and is now in effect through late Monday morning. Bitter cold air temperatures ranging from 5 to 15 below and wind chills as low as 20 to 30 below are expected this morning. While wind chills are likely to rise above zero for a period this afternoon as temps warm into the teens, bitter cold temperatures will quickly return after sunset.. with wind chills as low as 24 below expected again tonight and Monday morning.

Shortwave energy digging SSE into the northern Rockies this morning will progress SE across the Central Plains this evening, bringing another round of light snow to portions of the area, mainly in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border areas late this afternoon and evening. Recent (06Z 01/25) runs of the HRRR, RAP and NAM NEST appear to be converging on a similar solution, indicating light accumulating snow in the aforementioned areas between ~23-06Z (~4-11p MST) and total snow accumulations generally < 1", albeit with a potential for locally higher amounts (1-3") in eastern CO (Kit Carson County/Palmer Divide/I-70), where snow could be accompanied by 15-25 mph NE winds. *If* and where locally heavier snow were to develop in eastern CO, hazardous travel conditions would likely be exacerbated by blowing snow. Expect daytime highs in the teens and overnight (Mon morning) lows ranging from -5 to -10F.

Mon-Mon night: The ongoing cold snap will end by early Monday afternoon as ~1045 mb high pressure shifts southward into the Southern Plains and modest SW to WSW low-level return flow initiates a warming trend. Expect highs ranging from 32-40F, coldest in areas with snow cover in northwest KS. A relatively tight MSLP gradient may foster breezy (15-25 G 30 mph) SW winds across portions of the area during the afternoon. Localized reductions in visibility assoc/w blowing snow are possible, depending on whether or not.. and if so, to what extent.. snow cover affects vertical mixing. Expect overnight (Tue morning) lows in the single digits to teens.. possibly colder in areas with lingering snow cover.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 108 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

The long term period as a whole is characterized by upper level ridging over the Western United States and an upper low/trough over the Great Lakes and Eastern United States.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the ridge is forecast to have more of an influence over the area which should help trend the area towards warmer temperatures. That being said, Tuesday should still be a bit on the cooler side in the wake of a cold front and with a colder air mass trying to move in (though for now it looks to go more to the east). High temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s (colder to the east) while Wednesday is forecast to have highs around 50. Any lingering snow pack could cause temperatures to be a bit lower than forecast.

Thursday and Friday, guidance has become a bit more unified in an upper low swinging into the Plains on these days. The issue is that there is still considerable spread on when it actually moves through the area and how far west it will dig. The favored solution is that it will swing through Thursday along with a surface cold front, with the reinforcing cold air and coldest temperatures on Friday. The other solution is that the same thing happens on Friday instead with the coldest temperatures on Saturday. While most solutions have the upper low digging west enough for us to get a decent shot of cold air, there are splits on either side with it digging to much (very cold temperatures) or shifting more east (more mild temperatures for the area). For now, the forecast is reflective of the favored solution, but be prepared for changes in either direction. It is worth noting that from a temperature magnitude perspective, there appears to be only a 25% chance that we either get the really cold or mild temperatures. We will likely see something similar to what is currently forecast.

The weekend and into early next week is forecast to keep the unsettled pattern going with northwest flow over the area. That being said, the ridge is favored to be a little more amplified. This should keep the area a bit warmer in the absence of upper lows or shortwaves moving through the flow and bringing systems through the area.

In regards to precipitation, chances are low through the long term as we remain favored to be dry at the surface. Our best chance is with the front/system on Thu/Fri. Even then, the ensembles upper end is only about 0.1 to 0.2 inches of liquid.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 359 AM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through mid-afternoon. MVFR to IFR conditions associated with light snow and low ceilings/visbys are expected during the late afternoon and evening, mainly between ~00-05Z. A clearing trend will follow, overnight. Winds may predominantly be variable.. until shifting to the NE at 10-15 knots during the late afternoon. Winds may become variable again late this evening.. shifting to the WSW and increasing to 10-15 knots near the end of the TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF period. MVFR conditions associated with light snow and low ceilings/visbys are possible during the late afternoon and early evening, mainly between ~21-01Z. A clearing trend will follow, overnight. Winds may be light/variable through the majority of the TAF period.. eventually shifting to the WSW and increasing to 10-15 knots at/around sunrise (~12Z) Monday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ090>092. NE...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Monday for NEZ079>081.