textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A bit on the warm side with highs in the 80s and low 90s through the weekend. - Increased fire weather concerns through this evening and again Saturday, especially for counties along the Tri-State border. Relative humidity may drop into the teens with gusts around 30-35 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 405 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The primary weather concerns in the near-term continues to be focused on near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. The lowest relative humidity values are in place over northeast Colorado and along the Tri-State border area; however, winds have struggled to climb above 15-20 mph gusts and the higher wind gusts have been fairly spotty. Stronger winds with gusts of 25-35 mph have been further east, generally along and east of Hwy 25 and south of I- 70...but relative humidities have stayed in the 20-25 percent range. Relative humidity values will recover decently overnight despite breezy winds. Similar conditions are expected to develop again tomorrow afternoon.

The upper air pattern is in the process of transitioning from the northwest flow we saw most of the week to southwesterly this weekend. This transition is being driven primarily by high pressure shifting from the southeast states out into the Atlantic as Hurricane Isaias makes landfall later this evening and moves inland, becoming extratropical; and a longwave trough digging southward across the West Coast helping to amplify ridging over the Central Plains as Isaias lifts towards the Ohio River valley. At the surface, troughing along the front range of the Rockies will keep the gradient tight over Kansas and Nebraska through tomorrow night. A stout low-level jet will set-up tonight just above a weak near- surface inversion, so expect there to be quite a bit of higher momentum air to mix down resulting in breezy conditions to continue overnight. This will also help to keep temperatures warmer overnight with lows only expected to drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

A front will begin to push through Sunday night with cooler temperatures filtering in behind the front for early next week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 253 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

On Monday, upper-level southwesterly flow is forecast to start next week with ridging to the east and a deep trough to the southwest. With our area being in between these features, clouds should be partly over the area. Winds are expected to be slightly breezy at 15 mph from the south and afternoon temperatures being in the 80s.

Tuesday, Southwesterly flow will still be prominent over the area as the trough starts to move eastward. This will allow drier air aloft to enter over the area. A weak surface low pressure system will likely be going through the area within the early morning hours. This should allow cooler temperatures into the 70s and a slight increase in cloud cover north of I-70. However, a secondary surface low pressure system will likely form to the west during the evening hours. This should lead into our first chances for evening showers to occur throughout the period as this could bring low level moisture into the area from the south/southwest. There is medium confidence (40-60%) that this will happen.

Wednesday, it is very likely that lingering showers from Tuesday will occur throughout the day as the upper-level trough starts to move into the Four Corners region. Though later in the day, there is a possibility that an afternoon thunderstorm could happen as a cold front could pass through. The limiting factor for storms will be elevated surface based CAPE over 600 J/kg. There is low confidence (25%) that this will occur. If storms do occur it will be weak. Otherwise, it will be cloudy and scattered showers over the area.

Thursday, the consistency of the upper-level trough starts to become unclear as the axis moves over the area. Guidance shows some uncertainty with the timing and could either speed up or slow down as another cold front moves through. If the trough speeds up, we could expect the cold front to be in the early morning hours before dawn with lower afternoon temperatures. If the cold front slows down, we can then expect to see slightly warmer temperatures with the front occurring in the afternoon. If precipitation occurs, it will likely be west of Hwy 27.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be breezy and mainly out of the south- southwest. Wind gusts up to around 30 knots are possible through the TAF period, with higher confidence in stronger gusts around 03Z for both terminals. Low-level wind shear is anticipated at both sites starting around 02-03Z and subside by sunrise.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.