textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures today, then cooling slightly on Thursday and Friday to closer to normal.

- Areas of fog east of Highway 83 Thursday morning. Fog chances may return for both Friday and Saturday mornings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 246 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Overview: An upper level ridge over the Intermountain West (today) will slowly shift eastward to the Rockies Thu-Thu night and adjoining High Plains Fri-Fri night.

Through Thursday: A Canadian airmass (850 mb temps -8C) will surge southward from Ontario into the Upper Midwest (MN-WI-IA) late tonight and western portions of the Ohio Valley on Thursday. The aforementioned airmass will be so far-removed from the Tri-State Area that there will be little, if any, indication of a frontal passage (i.e. noticeable wind shift or temperature change) in the Goodland CWA. Rather, guidance suggests that light NE to E winds will gradually advect the modified western fringe of the Canadian airmass (850 mb temps 6 to 10C) into southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, where relatively cooler temperatures will become evident during the afternoon. Expect highs ranging from the mid 50's (N and E of Oberlin) to the lower-mid 60's elsewhere.

Dense Fog Thu Morning: A short-lived, NNW to SSE oriented corridor of dense fog may develop along the western fringe / interface of the modified Canadian airmass advecting southwestward into central Nebraska late (12-18Z) Thursday morning. Current and recent runs of the HRRR suggest that dense fog will largely, or entirely, be confined north of the GLD CWA.

Thu night-Fri night: With the Tri-State Area situated on the western fringe of a pronounced and persistent inverted surface ridge over the Upper Midwest/Central MS River Valley and the eastern fringe of a surface trough in the lee of the central and northern Rockies, low-level southerly return flow will reign in this period. Current/recent runs of the HRRR strongly suggests that light SE to SSE low-level flow and modest 850 mb warm advection will facilitate the development of stratus and/or dense fog over much of the area Thu night into Fri morning.. and that cloud cover may persist throughout the day Fri in eastern /lower elevation/ portions of the area. Depending on cloud cover, highs in eastern portions of the area could range anywhere from the upper 40's to mid 50's and western portions of the area could range anywhere from the mid-upper 50's to mid 60's. With persistent SSE-SE low-level flow, widespread stratus and/or dense fog could redevelop Fri night into Sat morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 243 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Ensemble guidance shows troughing moving in at 500-mb throughout the day Saturday, which would be associated with a surface low in Eastern portions of Colorado. Southeasterly winds are favored to be in place across the area due to this surface low, with NBM guidance suggesting these winds will sustain between 15 and 20 MPH, and gust to around 30 MPH. Surface high temperatures are currently forecast in the low to mid 50s in spite of the strong southeasterly flow expected throughout the day. This would be driven by a 75-90% chance of cloud cover above 50% based on LREF guidance, alongside a strong surface high in the Midwest recirculating cool continental air into the region.

Going into the evening hours Saturday, the likelihood for precipitation begins to increase, with PoPs (probability for precipitation) into Sunday morning up around 60% in some places. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows between a 50 and 65% chance that greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation falls across the forecast area between Saturday evening and Sunday evening. Rain is very likely to be the precipitation type, as LREF guidance shows over a 90% chance that low temperatures will not fall to freezing during this time period. Additionally, all members in the 00Z run of the LREF clusters on November 11 show no wintry precipitation occurring, an improvement from recent runs. Activity is forecast to remain widespread rather than convective, as CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values from the LREF show no more than a few hundred J/kg in the best scenario. Highs on Sunday are forecast in the mid 40s to lower 50s, with no hazards expected.

GEFS and EC ensembles are in good agreement that ridging will be entering the area Monday, as troughing once again moves into the Western United States off the Pacific Coast. Highs are forecast to return to around normal Monday and Tuesday (50s), with winds set to increase, particularly on Tuesday, as the trough approaches. NBM guidance suggests that winds on Tuesday have at least a 40% chance of sustaining above 20 MPH and gusting above 30 MPH across nearly the entire forecast region. Precipitation is not forecast again until Tuesday night, though 24 hr precipitation guidance only shows a 10-20% chance for greater than 0.1 inches. However, this will depend on the track and timing of the trough and surface low, which is relatively uncertain at this range. When looking at LREF members, ENS and GEPS members favored a more northern track, while GEFS favored a low coming through the Central Plains, which would be more supportive of precipitation in the area. As such, a northern track is currently favored at around 60%.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 255 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with cloud cover confined to scattered cirrus at or above 20,000 ft AGL. NW winds at 9-13 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots during this afternoon will back to the WNW and decrease to 4-8 knots shortly before sunset (~22-23Z) and remain light overnight. Winds may briefly shift to the NNW or N and increase to 10-12 knots for a short period during the late morning. Light and variable winds are otherwise Thu afternoon.

MCK: There is a very low probability (10-20%) for a short period of LIFR conditions associated with dense fog and/or stratus between sunrise and noon (~13-17Z Thu). Current/recent runs of the HRRR suggest that LIFR conditions will be confined north of Red Willow County (closer to the I-80 corridor in Nebraska). Regardless, confidence is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 00Z TAF issuance. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail, with cloud cover confined to scattered cirrus at or above 20,000 ft AGL. WNW to NW winds at 10-15 knots will occasionally gust to ~20 knots this afternoon will weaken and become variable by sunset. Light and variable winds are expected to prevail through the remainder of the 00Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.