textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures for the date (and the month of March) expected on Saturday.

- Red Flag Warning in effect Saturday for southwest Nebraska and most of northwest Kansas, where record high temperatures, exceptionally dry conditions and SW wind gusts up to ~30 mph will create dangerous fire weather conditions.

- A cold front surging southward through the area late Saturday night will bring breezy north winds and cooler temperatures to the region on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 144 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

A 594dam high pressure system is in place across the SW CONUS which is keeping our well above normal temperatures in place. Winds are forecast to be around 10-15 mph with sporadic and spotty gusts around 25 mph during the mid to late afternoon hours. High temperatures remain on track with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Surface high pressure is forecast to move in briefly this evening from the northwest leading to winds becoming light and variable before shifting again to the southwest as a surface trough moves in. As the winds turn to the southwest temperatures will then either stabilize or rise which in return will keep humidity values in the low 20 to low 40% through the night.

Saturday, the high pressure across the southwest strengthens to around 590dam but actually flattens out as a synoptic pattern shift occurs with zonal flow breaking down the ridge. Hot temperatures remain forecast for the entire area with highs in the 90s to even some low 100s on the table as well. Record highs and even monthly record highs will more than likely be set for tomorrow, some of these highs are over 100 years old which shows how anomalous of a pattern this is.

As the above mentioned surface trough moves through the area winds ahead of it are forecast to increase with wind gusts of 20-30 mph forecast. The hot temperatures and the dry air mass in place is forecast to lead to very low humidity values in the single digits across the entire forecast area. Have opted to upgrade all but Yuma and Cheyenne (KS) to a Red Flag Warning based on the current forecasted axis of the trough. The western part of the Red Flag Warning is most at risk of not panning out for the full 3 hours of the warning if the trough were to move through a little quicker. I did opt to cancel the Fire Weather Watch for Yuma and Cheyenne (KS) due to decreasing signal for widespread wind gusts in excess of 25 mph as this is where the axis of the surface trough is forecast to set up at.

During the evening, am anticipating a period of lighter winds across the area as the nocturnal inversion sets in but am forecasting winds to begin to increase again around 03Z or so as pressure rises occurs with a pre frontal trough which should be enough to tap into a 25- 30knot jet. Locally critical to critical fire weather conditions is forecast to still be ongoing across portions of the area during this time as humidity is forecast to still be around 15%. A cold front is then forecast to move through the area between 06 and 09Z further shifting winds to the north. Additional pressure rises of 5-8mb over three hours is forecast resulting in wind gusts around 35-45 mph with the strongest favoring eastern portions of the area. With the warmth and the dryness, some blowing dust may be possible with the cold front. Currently not too excited about the threat for significant visibility reductions as most guidance has very low 0-2km lapse rates but do think there is the potential for localized areas to briefly drop with the FROPA. 15Z RAP cross section analysis does suggest that -3 microbars of omega could be in place across northwestern portions of the area around 10-12Z Sunday which may be enough to generate some sprinkles or even light showers. Confidence in this is low however so will maintain silent pops for this forecast package.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Sunday: Expect cooler temperatures (highs in the 60's) and breezy north winds in the wake of the early morning cold frontal passage. 12Z 03/20 operational guidance indicates that ~35 knot northerly low-level flow at sunrise (~13Z) will veer to the NE and decrease to 15-25 knots by late morning (16-18Z) and further decrease to 10-20 knots during the afternoon. With the above in mind, expect breezy north winds (~20-30 mph G 35-45 mph) to veer to the NE and decrease to ~15-25 mph by noon (~18Z) in most locations.. further decreasing to 10-20 mph during the mid-late afternoon.

Monday-Friday: 12Z 03/20 operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate a resurrection of the southwest CONUS blocking high early next week, suggesting a day-to-day warming trend culminating in record or near-record highs ~90F by mid- week (Wed Mar 25), followed by a cooling trend late-week as the blocking high/ridge flattens and another cold front progresses southward through the Central Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 410 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Aside from transient wisps of cirrus at or above ~20,000 ft AGL, clear skies will prevail. Light and variable winds will predominate this evening and overnight. SSW winds will increase to ~12-18 knots for a few hours during the late morning to early afternoon before veering to the W and decreasing to ~8-12 knots for the remainder of the afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Aside from transient wisps of cirrus at or above ~20,000 ft AGL, clear skies will prevail. Light and variable winds will predominate this evening and overnight. SW winds will increase to 10-15 knots a few hours after sunrise (by ~16Z Sat). SW winds will further increase to 13-18 knots by ~19Z with gusts up to ~25 knots during the afternoon. SW winds will decrease to ~8-12 knots an hour or so prior to sunset, at the end of the 00Z TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 144 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Critical fire weather conditions remain forecast for much of the forecast area for Saturday and into the early morning hours Sunday. Tricky part of the forecast will be the positioning of a surface trough across the area which is currently forecast to be set up from roughly Cheyenne (CO) up through Dundy county through the morning hours. Ahead of the trough wind gusts around 30 mph are forecast to occur with lighter winds becoming the norm as the trough moves through. This was the reasoning for the cancellation of the Fire Weather Watch for Yuma and Cheyenne (KS) as confidence was very low in these conditions occurring. Dundy was the more difficult one as a developing surface low across the Nebraska Panhandle should further help increase winds across southwest Nebraska. Forecast soundings for Imperial show mixing potential up to 30 mph which leads me to believe that there may be enough of a signal to warrant the Red Flag Warning for Dundy despite the placement of the trough. Hitchcock down through Wichita counties have the most concern if 3 hours of critical conditions can occur but confidence is high in at least 2 hours. It will be dependent if the trough pushes through too quickly which currently appears to be around 10-15% chance of occurring. Due to the winds starting earlier for these counties and humidity already very close to the 15% threshold for critical conditions felt this was enough to warrant the upgrade.

Be aware of a period of lighter winds during the evening before winds again increase due to a prefrontal trough, similar to what occurred last Saturday evening where locally critical to critical conditions could still be ongoing. A cold front is then forecast to move through the area between 06-09Z with another increase of winds perhaps gusting around 45 mph across eastern parts of the forecast area. Due to all these combinations for fire spread potential do like the 09Z end time of the Red Flag Warning especially given how warm and dry it has been along with primed fuels that are ready to burn.

CLIMATE

Issued at 410 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

As of 4 PM MDT this afternoon, new record high temperatures for the date (March 20) have been observed at McCook and Hill City.

On Saturday March 21, high temperature records for both the date and the month of March are in jeopardy.

================================= Record Highs for March 21 (Sat) ================================= Burlington.........84 in 2011 Goodland...........84 in 2011* Hill City..........93 in 1907 McCook.............89 in 1910

================================= Monthly Record Highs (March) ================================= Burlington......93 on 03-19-1921 Goodland........90 on 03-20-1907* Hill City.......94 on 03-16-2015* McCook..........93 on 03-16-2015*

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-042. CO...None. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Saturday to 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.