textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for rain in far southern portions of the area this evening and overnight, mainly in Greeley/Wichita counties.

- Temperatures near to slightly below normal through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 340 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Through Tonight: An upper level low and accompanying surface low currently in vicinity of Salt Lake City (ref 19Z Pot Vort on SPC Mesoanalysis) will track ESE across southern CO (this evening) and the TX Panhandle (Thursday morning). Low-level /850 mb/ warm advection and frontogenesis on the northeast periphery of the eastward advancing surface low and DPVA associated with the progressive upper low will foster the development of elevated convection over southeast CO this evening and southwest KS early Thu morning, when/where ~250 J/kg MUCAPE will be present. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of high resolution guidance continue to suggest that rain will be confined along/south of Hwy 40 (mainly Greeley/Wichita counties) and that heavy rain will largely, if not entirely, be confined south of the NWS Goodland county warning area. Expect overnight (Thu morning) lows ranging from the lower 30's to lower 40's, warmest along/south of Hwy 40 where cloud cover is most likely to mitigate radiational cooling and increasing low- level moisture with southern extent is expected to maintain surface wetbulb temperatures in the upper 30's to lower 40's.

Thu-Thu night: A west-to-east clearing trend will occur during the late morning and early afternoon as the aforementioned upper wave and accompanying surface low progress further downstream / ESE into Oklahoma and an upper level ridge over the Rockies builds eastward over the Central and Northern Plains. An ill- defined MSLP to 850 mb height gradient will maintain light winds across the entire Tri-State area. Expect daytime highs in the mid 50's. Mostly clear skies, light winds and a relatively dry airmass will foster seasonably chilly overnight (Fri morning) lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's, coldest in northeast CO.

Fri-Fri night: Guidance indicates a transition to a weak low- level southerly return flow regime in this period as the aforementioned ridge progresses east toward the Mississippi River Valley and an elongated, SW-to-NE oriented shear axis progresses east across the 4-Corners and central-southern Rockies. Guidance suggests that thick upper level cloud cover will modulate temperatures / dampen the diurnal temperature range, leading to daytime highs in the lower to mid 50's and overnight (Sat morning) lows in the 30's. No precipitation is expected in this period.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Model guidance continues to show signs of a small upper-level ridge system exiting the Great Plains this weekend. Behind this ridge, a mini-trough enters the region, which guidance also shows is likely to be positively tilted. Thus, 300-500 mb flow is likely to be meridional through Sunday. North to northeast flow aloft should dominate the weekend until another, much larger, ridging system starts to build throughout the County Warning Area (CWA) on Monday. Ensembles mostly agree on a transition to zonal westerly flow Monday as the ridge axis passes through the region. Thereafter, southwesterlies are expected as the ridge propagates eastward into the Missouri and Mississippi river valleys. At the surface, high pressure prevails through Monday. There is medium confidence on a frontal passage Tuesday, but nothing is expected to come of it other than a windshift.

Guidance foresees a lack of any significant weather through this long-term forecast period as dry air takes control. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) currently stand at 5% or less for the entire CWA throughout the weekend and beginning of next week. Dewpoints in the 30s and 40s as well as Relative Humidities (RHs) in the 30-50% range signal dry air not only aloft but at the surface as well. Cooler than normal temperatures present initially as highs in the 50s are expected everywhere in the Tri-State area through Saturday. Ensembles then project a bit of a warming trend with this ridging pattern as highs in the 60s are more likely heading into next week. Overnight lows are also forecast to be colder earlier in this four- day period, with around freezing to below freezing lows Saturday/Sunday. Slightly warmer low temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday mornings as upper 30s to low 40s are projected. Fire weather concerns remain very low as RH values mostly stay above 25% and surface winds are forecasted to be on the weaker side (5-15 mph gusting up to 20 mph).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 425 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the duration of the TAF period. Winds are expected to remain light (10 kts or less) and primarily out of the northwest.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.