textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures today. Daily record highs and even monthly record highs are expected.

- Red Flag Warning issued for today into the overnight hours for southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very dry conditions and wind gusts of 30-40 mph possible.

- Front moves through tonight, bringing much cooler temperatures and a chance for blowing dust.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 120 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Over the next 24-30 hours, a high pressure system over the southwestern CONUS is our big driving feature. Down in the lower levels, a low level high will setup around southeastern Kansas. Dry conditions will prevail and precipitation and clouds are not expected from the lack of moisture.

Today temperatures are forecast to be even warmer than the previous days, and will be the peak of our current hot spell. 850 mb temperatures will climb into the 25-30 C range as south- southwesterly winds push additional warm and down sloping winds into the CWA. Temperatures across the CWA will be in the 90s, and triple digit heat is possible (45%) in Graham and Gove counties. Record high temperatures are in jeopardy, more information can be found in the climate section below. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to remain in the 40s.

With the dry conditions, RH values will drop into the 5-10% range today. Winds will be the make or break factor for Red Flag Conditions. A weak surface trough looks to setup somewhere between the eastern Colorado border and KS 25 today in the 18-0Z time frame. West of this line, winds will be weaker, with gusts likely topping out around 20 kts, out of the main sphere of influence from the low level high. East of the surface trough, winds will have more of a southerly component and gusts around 25 kts will be more common. Occasional gusts up to 35 kts is also possible this afternoon, depending on how strong the 800-850 mb flow is. Looking at REFS and HREF guidance, there was high enough potential for 25+ MPH gusts south of I-70 along KS 27 to warrant expansion of the Red Flag Warning. Cheyenne county (KS) was included to keep it from standing out, but Red Flag criteria is not very likely in Cheyenne county today.

The same area that sees stronger winds this afternoon will also have some blowing dust potential. Looking at lapse rates, there will be no capping, leading to the most likely hazard being diminished air quality and slight visibility reductions near source regions.

Winds are forecast to weaken some between 0-3Z, as our normal nocturnal inversion sets up. Around 3-6Z, the 850 mb high remains generally in the same place as a low coming out of the northern Rockies approaches. This is forecast to increase the pressure gradient and increase the potential for additional gusts around 20-25 kts to mix to the surface. Areas southeast of a line from Norton, KS to Gove, KS are most likely to see this second wave of critical gusts. During this time, RH values will be gradually increasing, but are expected to remain under 15% until 3-6Z. These increased winds may slow the RH recovery and mix warm, dry air back down to the surface. Once RH values recover, critical fire weather conditions are not expected to return for a couple of days.

Starting around 7-8Z, our cold front from the incoming low pressure system will enter the CWA. This will provide a fairly rapid wind shift to be coming from the north, and increase wind speeds. Sustained winds of 15-25 kts and gusts up to 35-40 kts are expected with this front, the strongest winds being in the eastern CWA. While RH values will have climbed above critical criteria, this sudden wind shift will lead to erratic fire behavior for any ongoing or smoldering fires.

Sunday, an 850 mb high coming out of the northern Rockies will keep winds from the north-northeast gusting around 20-30 kts all day, gradually weakening as the day progresses. This will bring in cooler temperatures and slightly increasing dew points. Combined, this will keep RH values above 25%, eliminating any fire weather threat.

Sunday night, our flow aloft will have become much more zonal, with a weak shortwave pushing through. This is leading to a 10-20% chance of some light precipitation north of I-70. This potential is heavily limited by the 850 mb high moving over the same area at the same time, likely negating the 500 mb vorticity and leading to no precipitation. Overnight lows will be cooler, dropping into the 30s.

Monday, as the high exits to the east, we will get southerly return flow. The return flow will prompt WAA and allow temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to low 70s. The flow from the exiting high looks to be strong enough to produce sustained winds in the 15-25 kts range and gusts up to 30-40 kts. Thankfully, RH values look to remain around 20%, so the threat for critical fire weather conditions is very low.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Monday night and through the rest of the week is currently forecast to have the area under northwest flow aloft with a ridge rebuilding into the Southwestern United states. This should allow lows to rebound going into the mid-week above 40. Temperatures should also warm for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs warming into the 80s and 90s, depending on the timing of the next upper trough and surface low system. With the warm and dry conditions, there will be some concerns for critical fire weather conditions. However, similar to the last few days, the upper height gradients and surface pressure gradient may be too broad/weak for winds to consistently gust above 25 mph.

Guidance is now a bit more in agreement that the next system should move through the area around Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The system is forecast to be broad like recent systems with breezy conditions with gusts around 30-40 mph instead of 50+. Unfortunately, this looks to be another dry system with little to no precipitation forecast. This could then allow for critical fire weather conditions Thursday depending on when and how much of the cold air surges in. The main driver is how strong/amplified the upper ridge can remain. If the ridge remains intact, we should just cool down to slightly above average and remain above freezing as the center of the cold air mass shoots east. Otherwise, there is a chance the cold air mass would be strong enough to bring freezing temperatures back into the area for the end of the week. A key note with all of this is that there is still about 24 hours of variability in the system timing which could have profound impacts on what we see in the area. That being said, it looks like 70% or more of the ensemble members have the late Wednesday/early Thursday system passage.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 527 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both sites with mostly clear skies. There is a chance tonight after 06Z that an advancing cold front may be able to bring some lower ceilings around 1500-3000ft into the area. For the daytime hours, winds are forecast to remain roughly from the southwest around 10 kts. There could be a few gusts around 20-25 kts, especially after 18Z. Winds are forecast to shift to out of the north after 06Z as a cold front moves into the area. Speeds are also forecast to increase to around 20 kts with some gusts to 30-40 kts. There could also be a few hours of low level wind shear as speeds just above the surface increase a bit before the winds at the surface.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

This is just an excerpt from the Short Term discussion above. No additional information is included.

With the dry conditions, RH values will drop into the 5-10% range today. Winds will be the make or break factor for Red Flag Conditions. A weak surface trough looks to setup somewhere between the eastern Colorado border and KS 25 today in the 18-0Z time frame. West of this line, winds will be weaker, with gusts likely topping out around 20 kts, out of the main sphere of influence from the low level high. East of the surface trough, winds will have more of a southerly component and gusts around 25 kts will be more common. Occasional gusts up to 35 kts is also possible this afternoon, depending on how strong the 800-850 mb flow is. Looking at REFS and HREF guidance, there was high enough potential for 25+ MPH gusts south of I-70 along KS 27 to warrant expansion of the Red Flag Warning. Cheyenne county (KS) was included to keep it from standing out, but Red Flag criteria is not very likely in Cheyenne county today.

Winds are forecast to weaken some between 0-3Z, as our normal nocturnal inversion sets up. Around 3-6Z, the 850 mb high remains generally in the same place as a low coming out of the northern Rockies approaches. This is forecast to increase the pressure gradient and increase the potential for additional gusts around 20-25 kts to mix to the surface. Areas southeast of a line from Norton, KS to Gove, KS are most likely to see this second wave of critical gusts. During this time, RH values will be gradually increasing, but are expected to remain under 15% until 3-6Z. These increased winds may slow the RH recovery and mix warm, dry air back down to the surface. Once RH values recover, critical fire weather conditions are not expected to return for a couple of days.

Starting around 7-8Z, our cold front from the incoming low pressure system will enter the CWA. This will provide a fairly rapid wind shift to be coming from the north, and increase wind speeds. Sustained winds of 15-25 kts and gusts up to 35-40 kts are expected with this front, the strongest winds being in the eastern CWA. While RH values will have climbed above critical criteria, this sudden wind shift will lead to erratic fire behavior for any ongoing or smoldering fires.

CLIMATE

Issued at 120 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Some daily record highs and even monthly March record highs are in jeopardy of falling today.

Record high temperatures Saturday March 21st

Goodland: Record high 84 in 1907 & 2011.... current forecast 94.

McCook: Record high 89 in 1910.... current forecast 98.

Hill City: Record high 93 in 1907... current forecast 99.

Burlington: Record high 84 in 2011.... current forecast 92. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Monthly (March) Record Highs:

Goodland: 90 degrees March 20th, 1907

McCook: 93 degrees March 16th, 2015

Burlington: 93 degrees March 19th, 1921

Hill City: 94 degrees March 16th, 2015

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning to 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029- 041-042. CO...None. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning to 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.