textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog anticipated overnight tonight, mainly east of a McCook to Tribune line. Some slick spots due to freezing fog possible.

- Critical fire weather conditions anticipated on Sunday north of a Burlington to McCook line.

- Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions on Tuesday. Very dry conditions and winds gusting over 60 mph will create conditions favorable for explosive fire growth.

- Blowing dust may reduce air quality in eastern Colorado and adjacent areas on Tuesday. Low visibility due to dust plumes may also hinder travel.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1229 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

18Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated strong shortwave trough moving into northern Texas with northern trough responsible for overnight precipitation gradually shearing out/absorbing into overall flow this morning. At the surface, low center was near the Oklahoma and Texas border with northerly flow overspreading the local area.

Main concerns for the short term will be fog potential tonight, fire weather potential on Sunday, and potential for widespread drying of soils through Monday.

Tonight...Winds will diminish and skies clear as weak high pressure settles over the area. With portions of the area seeing significant precipitation, may have enough low level moisture present to allow radiational fog to develop as cooling conditions fairly optimal. Decent signal in short range guidance that area of fog will develop overnight, although am concerned that moisture profiles just off the surface very dry, indicating very shallow moisture. Confidence in widespread significant fog is lowered due to this scenario and think densest fog may be limited to valleys and other low spots where colder air will settle. At this time, do not plan on issuing a dense fog advisory but will need to keep an eye on things tonight as southeastern portion of CWA will be somewhat preconditioned for fog as clouds today have inhibited warming.

Sunday-Sunday night...Fog will dissipate quickly in the morning hours as lee trough develops, bringing increasing southerly winds. Number 1 concern for the time period will be fire weather conditions as winds increase to 15 to 30 mph as trough intensifies. There will be a sharp gradient in humidities as southerly flow will work to advect moisture back into region, replacing a much drier airmass. Just to the north of this advection however, will likely see area of critical fire weather conditions develop in the afternoon. GFDI values are a bit on the low side lowering confidence somewhat, but confident enough that western and northern CWA will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.

Monday-Monday night...H5 ridge axis will move eastward through the period, leading to somewhat tranquil conditions through the period. Temperatures will warm into the low 70s across the area driving humidities down to 15-20%. Winds in general are expected to be rather light through the bulk of the day, with southeasterly winds picking up in the late afternoon due to approaching system. Timing of winds will likely be too late for prolonged critical fire weather conditions and do not anticipate any fire weather highlights at this time. Biggest potential concern will be development of mountain induced cirrus as flow aloft perpendicular to mountains increases. This could become thick enough to limit heating/increase humidities. Additionally less sunshine may inhibit some of the drying of soils over recent precipitation areas. Right now, biggest concern for blowing dust on Tuesday generally west of today's precipitation area but more clouds/less preconditioning on Sunday may inhibit eastward extent of blowing dust on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Southwesterly upper level flow across the Western United States could allow a number of shortwave systems to impact the forecast area in the long term. Tuesday morning, a shortwave trough over the Rocky Mountains is forecast to accompany a strong and intensifying 80-100 kt upper level jet in its left exit region. Powerful upper level divergence as a byproduct of this pattern in addition to lee cyclogenesis is likely to allow intense deepening of a surface cyclone along the Montana-Wyoming Border. As this occurs, strong southwesterly surface winds would be allowed to overspread the forecast region. Critically dangerous fire weather, high wind, and blowing dust are all possible hazards to experience from this system. Currently, a Fire Weather Watch is in place across most of the Tri-State area, as relative humidity values are forecasted to drop into the low to mid-teens, and wind gusts over 35 mph are possible. Additionally, portions of Eastern Colorado may experience sustained winds 45-50 mph with gusts over 60 mph. If confidence in high winds and low RH can continue to increase, a Red Flag Warning may be needed, with emphasis on Eastern Colorado where a High Wind Warning may be needed, and explosive fire growth could be experienced. High winds may also implicate blowing dust as a concern Tuesday afternoon, though a little uncertainty exists as to the severity. A wind shift in association with the passage of a cold front may allow for a more severe dust and fire event, especially if the front is allowed to pass earlier in the day. Even so, GFS and ECMWF model soundings indicate the possibility of a deep boundary layer to form by the middle to late afternoon (around 3 km thick), which could disperse dust through the atmosphere and lower the visibility threat from blowing dust. High temperatures in the 70s are possible across the area Tuesday.

Another shortwave trough and attendant surface low in Northeast Colorado has the potential to impact the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Southwesterly winds are forecast to start the day, with the possibility of wind gusts between 40 and 45 mph in Eastern Colorado. RH values in the low to mid-teens are forecast across the CWA, which could once again implicate critical fire weather as a concern. The primary region of focus is currently for counties along the KS-CO Border, where NBM guidance suggests that wind gusts have about a 50-60% chance to meet criteria for critical fire weather. In addition, as the surface low moves ESE through the day, there is the possibility for a wind shift from southwest to northeast to occur. Current guidance suggests that the shift would take place for portions of Northeast Colorado and Southwest Nebraska sometime between late morning and early afternoon, though confidence in timing and placement is uncertain. If this wind shift does occur, fire spread for existing fires could suddenly change direction. High temperatures in the upper-50s to mid-60s are forecast Wednesday.

Another shortwave may impact the forecast area Wednesday night and into Thursday. Light rain and snow are possible as this system comes through. NBM guidance indicates that precipitation is most likely for portions of Northeast Colorado and Southwest Nebraska, but may extend into East-Central Colorado and Northwest Kansas. Snowfall accumulations up to an inch are possible. Lows in the low-20s to low- 30s, and highs in the mid-40s to low-50s are currently forecast Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon respectively, though could be lower due to snowfall and/or sooner cold front passage.

Model divergence increases after Thursday afternoon, though troughing over the West and Central United States is favored. As such, highs in the mid-40s to low-50s, and lows in the upper-teens to low-20s are forecast. Isolated snow dustings continue to be possible through Saturday morning. A chance for ridging exists going into Sunday and the beginning of the next week, which may allow warming to take place.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1026 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Expect skies to continue clearing from west to east as system departs area, leading to VFR conditions throughout the rest of the day. Gusty northerly winds will continue at KGLD before winds gradually shift to the south overnight. Winds at MCK will be overall lighter and more variable. Only sensible weather concern will be potential development of fog overnight along weak convergence zone in area that received beneficial rain today. This area may get close to MCK, but confidence is still low that it will have a persistent impact.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ001. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for KSZ002-013. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ252-253. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ to 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Sunday for NEZ079>081. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NEZ079>081.