textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from mid morning through late afternoon for northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska and Kansas counties bordering both Colorado and Nebraska. Relative humidity will drop to around 10% and west to northwest winds will gust 25 to 35 mph.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible once again Friday afternoon, mainly in northeast Colorado and bordering counties in Kansas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

An upper low cut off from the main jet will meander around the northern plains through the short term period. A series of disturbances and vorticity lobes rotating around the low will provide synoptic scale lift for occasional precipiation chances. However, even if precipitation develops, very dry low and mid levels will limit measurable amounts to only a few hundredths, where it does occur. There may be isolated lightning strikes both this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, but given the high based nature of the updrafts and MUCAPE of 100 j/kg or less, severe storms are not expected. That being said, still would not rule out an isolated marginally severe gust with DCAPE forecast to be 500-1000 j/kg both days.

Main focus for the period will be critical fire weather conditions both Thursday and Friday. Today, relative humidity will reach the 15% threshold by mid to late morning and by mid afternoon the entire area will see values of 5-10%. Discriminator for critical conditions will be wind speeds. Models show a subtle wind shift occuring this afternoon from west to northwest as a shortwave trough axis moves through aloft, accompanied by a slight increase in wind gusts to 25-35 mph. There is also an increase in the westerly winds ahead of that feature in Colorado, possibly tied to an ever so subtle wind max coming through the base of the trough axis. Currrent Red Flag Warning mostly captures where the winds will be most likely to reach the 25 mph criteria for 3 hours, with the sole exception of Sherman and Wallace counties in northwest Kansas which will see the wind increases toward mid afternoon as mentioned. So plan on adding those two counties. Gave some thought to Greeley County as well, but the higher winds do not arrive until later in the afternoon and may not reach the 3 hour criteria there before diminishing after about 22z.

A surface high centered over the Nebraska panhandle Friday morning will move to south central Nebraska by Friday afternoon. Southeast winds early in the day will turn south and eventually southwest, resulting in considerable drying and relative humidity of 15% or less over the southwest half of the area (roughly west of a Wray, Colorado, to Scott City, Kansas, line). This is the same area that will see wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph by mid to late afternoon. The somewhat later onset of the stronger winds, mainly after 20z, may limit only the western areas to 3 hours of critical conditions, primarily Colorado, though the border counties in Kansas and Nebraska will be very close as well. With multiple fire weather products already in effect, will hold off for now on complicating matters with any additional products for Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Saturday, most of the Plains should be under the influence of the upper low in the Northern Plains. As long as the next shortwave doesn't near the area, Saturday should be a mild day with the area slightly under the influence of surface low pressure. Temperatures should be in the 60s and 70s with mid to high level clouds moving through in the upper westerly/southwesterly flow. As long as temperatures don't get too high, critical fire weather conditions are unlikely as relative humidity should be in the upper teens or higher. Winds for most of the area are forecast to be below 25 mph, but there could be some spots closer to the low in the west that could gust to 35 mph. During the afternoon and evening hours, showers and storms will be possible with the area in the wrap around side of the surface low. Chances will increase if one of the upper shortwaves moves near or through the area. The favored area will be east of Highway 83, where severe storms will also be possible. While forecast parameters could change in the coming days, the current forecast has MUCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg with mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, suggesting some instability. The biggest contributor is the 0-6km shear forecast to be around 45 kts which would help supercells develop. If they did develop large hail and damaging wind gusts would be possible.

Sunday, our region starts off under weak southwest upper-level flow with a deepening low pressure system off the west coast. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s and lows in the 30s to 40s. There are chances for precipitation throughout the day as several embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 50-90%, with the northern county warning area (CWA) on the higher side. We could see thunderstorms as CAPE forecast over the region, but models are in disagreement on how much and where the CAPE will be. ECMWF shows 400-1000 J/kg of CAPE across the entire CWA Sunday, while the GFS has more sporadic CAPE over the eastern CWA maxing out around 300 J/kg. Low confidence on specifics due to model disagreement, but we could see small hail if thunderstorms are able to form.

By Monday, a deepening low pressure system off the coast of Baja California begins to move onshore. This places our region in a more zonal upper-level pattern. As the low propagates east, several shortwaves will pass through the region bringing afternoon chances for precipitation. PoPs range from 20-40% for the northwest CWA. Convective potential is low based on lack of forcings. Whether storms form or not, winds will be a concern Monday as a jet streak sets up over our CWA. Winds will be from the northwest with gusts of 25-40 mph possible. The northeast CWA is expected to receive the higher end of wind gusts.

Overall, Tuesday's forecast is drier compared to the model runs yesterday. Relative humidity (RH) values and PoPs are trending down while winds have switched directions and gone up. RH values are forecast in the high teens to 20s and wind gusts from 25 to 35 mph for the western CWA. We could see a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions, especially if models continue to trend drier in subsequent runs. Tuesday afternoon on, we could see a more active pattern as the aforementioned low around the west coast moves towards our area. Confidence remains low due to model disagreement and this being near the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1105 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. A cold front will shift surface winds to northwest overnight, with gusty northwest winds 25-35 kts through the remainder of the TAF period. Scattered virga/showers Thursday afternoon are not expected to impact flight categories, though may see some briefly higher gusts if one manages to pass nearby (less than 20% chance).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1105 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. A cold front will shift surface winds to northwest overnight, with gusty northwest winds 25-35 kts through the remainder of the TAF period. Scattered virga/showers Thursday afternoon are not expected to impact flight categories, though may see some briefly higher gusts if one manages to pass nearby (less than 20% chance).

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013-027. CO...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.