textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Small window for heightened fire danger today near Yuma and Kit Carson county border.

- Significantly cooler weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing chance of precipitation through the period.

- Threat for first frost of the season increasing Friday and Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 156 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

04Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated a trough/ridge/trough pattern across the CONUS with CWA under southwesterly flow on western periphery of H5 ridge. At the surface, a 997 mb low was centered across southeast Wyoming, with warm front extending to the southeast of low laying between Yuma and Holyoke Colorado and along the northern boundary of the CWA.

Main forecast concerns through Wednesday will focus on fire weather threat today followed by increasing precip chances by Wednesday.

Gusty WSW winds and temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal bring a heightened threat for wild fires although confidence is somewhat low that persistent strong winds and low humidity will be concurrent for prolonged periods today. Expect strongest winds to occur during the 15-19z period as boundary layer mixes into remnants of overnight LLJ. With expected wind direction have noticed HRRR and RAP suggest a small area of stronger winds across Kit Carson county, seemingly aided by enhanced downslope warming along Palmer Divide. This is supported to various degrees by other guidance and would not be shocked to see strongest wind gusts (30-35kts) prior to 18z in this area, with winds gradually weakening through the afternoon. Most likely area to see near critical fire weather conditions will be just south of warm front along the Yuma/Kit Carson county border eastward to St. Francis. Confidence not great that duration will last 3 hours and with GFDI values also staying below "High" think best plan is to highlight area with fire weather SPS as opposed to warning.

Overnight the front will begin to sag to the south as a cold front reaching the I70 corridor by 12Z. While atmosphere behind front will saturate quickly aided by easterly upslope flow, moisture profile is very shallow and expect primary impacts will be fog/drizzle and low stratus by sunrise.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Forecast uncertainty really ramps up during the period, especially with respect to how fast cold front sweeps across region and resulting impact on temperatures. Model forecast spreads, especially on Tuesday are quite large with forecast spread of 15 to 30 degrees with respect to high temperatures and 10 to 15 degrees with respect to overnight lows. While there are no certainties with respect to model performance, given the time of year and potential for shallow strong cold fronts, think more weight should be given to the colder solutions as these type of fronts tend end up further south than expected. While not expected currently, colder tail of overnight low guidance indicating some potential for the first frost across eastern Colorado and adjacent area. This threat is low (5-10%) but worth keeping an eye on.

Aside from the big swings in temperature expected, chance for precipitation will return to area by Tuesday evening with best chances throughout the day Wednesday. Giving more weight to the further south/colder solutions will generally keep potential severe weather threat to the south and east, with a few elevated thunderstorms possible, especially on Tuesday evening, bring a threat for lightning and small hail. Will have to monitor this period closely however as a slower frontal movement would not only bring much warmer temperatures but also increased severe weather threat. Strong and deep WAA will develop ahead of approaching closed H5 low through the day on Wednesday, with forcing for ascent maximizing overnight as low moves over Rockies into the High Plains. Am concerned that precipitation may somewhat be split to the east and northwest of area, at least with respect to higher amounts. Despite strong low level forcing and saturated conditions, dry slot is expected to surge ahead of low through the overnight hours. While this may allow a few storms to develop due to differential moisture advection, it will also keep precipitation processes outside of those storms to be shallow and more conducive to drizzle/light rain. Regardless of this concern, chance of measurable precip is high but not expecting amounts to be anywhere as high as previous storms with totals likely in the 0.1 to 0.3 inch range.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 244 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Ensemble guidance is quite confident on upper-level troughing Thursday to start the four-day forecast period, placing us in strong southwest flow aloft through Friday morning. A decent jet streak is anticipated to present over our County Warning Area (CWA) on the lee side of the Rossby wave. Furthermore, a surface low southeast of the region should continue moving east across the Central Plains. The pattern likely changes over the course of the day Friday as the trough propagates eastward, bringing us into zonal westerly flow. Moving forward, weak ridging starts to develop Saturday shifting 300- 500mb flow to the northwest. Said ridge should move to the east fairly quickly Sunday, placing the Tri-State area right back in southwest flowing heading into next week. Other than Thursday (10- 25%), Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) is expected to be very low (<5%) through next weekend. There is low chance (25%) for overnight temperatures at or below freezing Friday night. Therefore, frost will be possible.

Overall, below average temperatures are likely as the system aloft ushers in cool/dry air from the northwest. High temperatures upper 50s into the low 60s will be likely Thursday and Friday. This will not last as the shift to southwesterly flow kicks off a warming trend that raises high temps into the mid/upper 60s Saturday as well as mid to upper 70s Sunday. As mentioned in the above section, low confidence (20-30%) exists of temperatures falling below freezing in some locations throughout the CWA Friday night into Saturday morning. Low temperatures in the mid 30s will also be possible Thursday night in some areas near or west of K-27.

Fire weather could be a concern late next week into the weekend, so trends regarding surface winds and relative humidity (RH) will need to be monitored. RH is forecasted to decrease into the upper teens Saturday and Sunday in the eastern Colorado counties. RH values should generally range around 20-40% during the day elsewhere in the CWA. Winds originally come on strong Thursday at 20-35 mph, gusting 30-50 mph from the north. Fridays winds likely will be quite a bit weaker at 10-20 mph, also from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Saturday and Sunday will be the days to keep a close eye on for potential fire weather. Saturday's winds will vary around the region 15-25 mph from the south and gusting 20-35 mph. To close out the weekend, Sunday's winds should be quite light (5-10 mph) shifting from the southwest to southeast and gusting up to 15 mph.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1132 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. A low level jet in place is producing southwesterly wind shear up to 50 kts at both sites, and will persist to a little before sunrise. Winds are expected to make a small shift out of the southwest over the next few hours as a surface low approaches the area. This surface low will also be responsible for a cold front entering the area from the north later this afternoon, which will primarily affect KMCK during the TAF period. Winds will back out of the east-northeast beginning around 23Z as this front comes through, sustaining around 10-15 kts.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.