textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered storms forecast to develop along and north of I-80 in NE this afternoon may evolve into a cluster that tracks southward into portions of northwest KS this evening. Severe storms capable of producing 70 mph winds and a few instances of quarter to ping pong ball size hail are possible, mainly north of I-70 and east of Hwy 25 between 8 PM - 1 AM CDT.

- Near average temperatures today followed by a warming trend, with highs peaking in the mid 90's to lower 100's Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 250 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest and extending northward to the Canadian Rockies, will gradually shift eastward over the High Plains today through Sat.

Today-Saturday: Expect a day-to-day warming trend as the aforementioned upper ridge shifts eastward over the High Plains, hottest on Sat when triple digit highs are forecast in KS and NE. Late aft-eve storms are possible today. Thunderstorm chances decrease to/below 10% beneath the eastward advancing ridge on Fri-Sat.

Severe Weather Today: The Tri-State Area remains in a weak synoptic forcing regime characterized by modest NW flow aloft and weak low-level flow. In such a pattern, diurnal convective development is more likely to occur in topographically favored areas such as the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. Convection allowing guidance tends to perform poorly in weak forcing regimes; this has certainly been the case the past few days and there is no reason to suspect that this will change.

Worst Case Scenario: Scattered storms developing along/north of I-80 in Nebraska this afternoon evolve into a robust cluster or line that tracks southward into northwest KS this evening and overnight (after sunset, between 8 pm - 1 am CDT), bringing a swath of damaging winds to the I-70 corridor.

Best Case Scenario: Storms developing along/north of I-80 in Nebraska remain isolated in nature and dissipate prior to reaching the Goodland CWA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 231 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Synoptically, on Sunday the upper level ridge begins to set up over the SE CONUS while a trough begins to move into the Pacific Northwest. This change will transition our upper level flow to be primarily out of the west to southwest. During this period, shortwaves are expected to move through the area, potentially increasing precipation chances.

Throughout the period, high temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 90s. Sunday is currently forecast to be the warmest day, with highs in the 90s for the majority of the CWA. Areas east of Hwy 83 have the best chance of seeing triple digits temperatures on Sunday. The "coolest" day is currently forecast to be Monday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Winds are expected to mainly remain calm through the early part of the week.

Regarding precipitation, there is potential for showers and storms each afternoon. Sunday and Monday currently have the highest potential with PoPs, ranging from 25-50% across the area. As for severe potential, while shear values appear to be decent, guidance suggests that CAPE values may limit storm development. This could result in more showers than storms. From Tuesday onward, precipitation chances begin to taper off, with PoPs in the 10-20% range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

KGLD: VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Light/variable winds this morning will become southerly or southeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon. There is a small chance for thunderstorms from the north between 02-05Z (8-11p MDT) this evening, mainly north and east of Goodland. Confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF.

KMCK: A short period of MVFR conditions associated with patchy fog are possible an hour or two on either side of sunrise this morning, mainly between 10-14Z. Thunderstorms are possible at the McCook terminal late this evening (~02-05Z). Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light/variable winds will become southerly or southeasterly and modestly increase to 9-14 knots this afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.