textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend over the next few days; 70s look to return Tuesday.

- Breezy to gusty conditions look to return Wednesday behind a cold front. This could lead to blowing dust or precipitation.

- Increased concern for fire weather conditions Tuesday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

Northwest flow will prevail through the short term period with a ridge axis located over the western CONUS. Temperatures will begin to warm today as the ridge nudges across the Rockies, with highs ranging from around 50 in McCook and Hill City to the lower 60s in northeast Colorado. Temperatures warm even further on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low afternoon humidity all three days will lead to fire weather concerns. Winds on Monday will be strongest (gusts to 20-30 mph possible) in eastern areas where humidity remains well above 20%, suggesting little to no critical fire weather concerns. Winds on Tuesday will be strongest north of Interstate 70, with strongest winds (gusts 30-40 mph possible) along the Highway 34 corridor overlaying relative humidity minimums between 15-20%. Winds do diminish further south towards the I-70 corridor with KGLD gusting 20-30 mph and even lower south of there. So appears to be some risk for critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon north of Interstate 70, with greatest risk along the Highway 34 corridor. Wednesday will be trickiest day for wind with a cold front associated with a shortwave trough poised to move through the area Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. Winds will be strongest behind the front, perhaps very strong, so timing will determine the fire weather threat. Models currently show those strong winds after 00z as humidity is recovering. If that holds may escape fire weather concerns, but not wind concerns with the front during the evening, perhaps blowing dust as well. GFS showing gusts 50-60 mph with the front, but so far ECMWF is not on board with much lower winds. Still too far for the CAMs, so will wait and see. The front will also provide the next chance for precipitation in the form of scattered rain showers, perhaps an isolated thunderstorm with 100-200 j/kg of SBCAPE to work with before 00Z then rapidly diminishing after sunset. Precipitation amounts look to be very light, generally less than a tenth of an inch expected outside any isolated thunderstorm which may develop.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 158 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

An upper-level trough may be lingering above the forecast region Thursday morning. Rain and/or snow in association with this system may be present a little past sunrise, but is forecast to dissipate soon after. Northerly to northwesterly winds look to prevail for most of the morning, which could hinder high temperatures a little bit. Even so, forecast highs are still in the low to mid-60s Thursday afternoon. Briefly critical fire weather is also possible during the afternoon hours when winds look to have a more westerly, downsloping component. As these winds bring in drier air, relative humidities in the mid to upper-teens may be experienced in Tri-State area counties that are along Colorado's eastern border. Additionally, NBM guidances suggests wind gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado have about a 60-70% chance of reaching critical fire weather thresholds (25 mph or greater). Westerly winds continuing through the mid-afternoon hours on Friday could promote even warmer and drier conditions than Thursday. Forecast highs are in the upper- 60s to low-70s, with relative humidity's in the low to mid-teens possible across the entire Tri-State area. Wind gusts have a similar probability to Thursday for reaching critical fire weather thresholds across portions of Northeastern Colorado, with about a 30- 40% chance they extend into East-Central Colorado and Southwest Nebraska. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed either day rests around 10%, with Northeast Colorado experiencing the highest risk.

Northwesterly flow aloft with an embedded shortwave trough digging east-southeastward across Southern Canada and the Northern United States may allow a surface high pressure system to enter the Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest Saturday. There is a significant amount of uncertainty as to how this will impact temperatures across the CWA, as the NBM 75th-25th percentile difference in high temperature is 32 degrees. Some scenarios suggest a powerful cold front from the north may plunge high temperatures as low as the 20s, while other scenarios keep colder air further north, allowing more mild high temperatures in the 70s and possibly even 80s to occur.

Model divergence increases more significantly by Sunday, though broad upper-level troughing looks to be favored across the Northern United States and Southern Canada. Embedded shortwaves in the flow could allow temperatures to fluctuate higher or lower across the CWA through the end of the period. Precipitation in the form of rain or snow cannot be ruled out with any of these systems.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 651 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

**652am MT Update: wind gusts up to 20 knots have begun a little earlier than anticipated and looking at recent 12Z forecast soundings appears they should continue through the remainder of the morning.**

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period, with light surface winds and occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.