textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible across the entire area this afternoon and evening, mainly between 3-10 pm MDT. 2" hail, 70 mph wind gusts, a few tornadoes, blowing dust and localized flash flooding are all possible.

- Additional storms may develop over portions of northwest KS and southwest NE late tonight and early Sunday morning. A few instances of large hail are possible with overnight storms.

- Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are possible, yet again, Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly between 2-9 PM MDT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A developing lee cyclone in Colorado will track ESE into southwest Kansas this evening then E into south-central Kansas tonight as small amplitude shortwave energy over northern Nevada at 08Z this morning progresses E across southern Wyoming (this aft-eve) and Nebraska (tonight).

No significant changes to the severe weather forecast this weekend. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current/recent runs of high resolution guidance continue to indicate storms developing in eastern CO ~21Z /3 pm MDT this afternoon and progressing E across northwest KS and southwest NE by ~04Z / 10 pm MDT, with additional overnight development possible in KS-NE late tonight (between midnight and sunrise Sunday) followed by another round of isolated development Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

***Synopsis***

A 500-mb trough looks to be moving eastward across the Montana Rockies through early portions of the day Monday. At the same time, a shortwave ridge looks to be overhead. There are indications of a surface low existing south of the trough in Colorado. The trough is favored to come through the area sometime Tuesday morning. The feature may linger in the area into Wednesday, though ensemble guidance suggests that upper- level ridging may begin moving in around this time. From here, forecast certainty decreases, as model guidance is uncertain whether shortwave troughs will come across the Rockies, or ridging will persist through the end of the period.

***Monday-Wednesday***

Thunderstorms appear possible Monday afternoon and into the night hours as a consequence of the surface low to the west of the CWA. These storms may be associated with modest amounts of instability of a few hundred to around 1000 J/kg of surface- based CAPE (convective available potential energy) according to LREF guidance, though some higher end scenarios may promote greater than 2000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical wind shear may develop across the region during the late afternoon and evening hours as the 40-50 kt 500-mb jet streak sets up overhead. Model ECMWF and GFS soundings suggest that storms may be associated with 40-60 kts of 0-6 km shear as a byproduct of this upper- level jet. Stronger storms may produce severe hail and wind, though environmental modifications in the short term in addition to uncertainties regarding the synoptic evolution may heavily influence what storms are capable of. Storms appear most likely across portions of Eastern Colorado, Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests a 50-70% chance across this zone to experience greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Monday. Considering the amount of variables that could influence Monday's event, confidence in severe weather occurring is around 10-15%. High temperatures on Monday are currently in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Thunderstorms look to be in play again Tuesday and Wednesday. LREF guidance suggests that up to 2500 J/kg of CAPE is reasonable both days, with ECMWF and GFS model soundings continuing to favor 40-60 kts of 0-6 km wind shear in association with the 500-mb jet streak. Severe hail and wind may continue to be possible with thunderstorms. Much of the forecast region has a 50-70% chance to experience greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation both Tuesday and Wednesday from thunderstorm activity based on NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance. Confidence in severe weather continues to remain around 10- 15%. High temperatures may drop slightly from Monday into the 70s across the area both Tuesday and Wednesday.

***Thursday-Friday***

Forecast certainty declines considerably by Thursday. GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance is consistent with ridging moving in overhead Thursday and Friday, though deterministic guidance, particularly from the GFS, suggests that shortwave troughs may also move through the area during this time period. Ridging would support conditions beginning to warm again, with highs forecast in the upper 70s and lower 80s Thursday, and 80s on Friday. A southerly moisture return may continue to support thunderstorm activity, especially if the shortwave troughs traverse the area. Even so, NBM guidance shows chances for precipitation decreasing by Thursday, as only zones in Southwest Nebraska and along US-283 in Kansas have a 50-60% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. This trend continues on Friday, with all areas at less than a 45% chance. Confidence in a severe event Thursday or Friday is low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Goodland: LIFR to IFR ceilings will lift/scatter to VFR late this morning (~15-16Z). Sub-VFR conditions associated with severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon and early evening, most likely between ~22-02Z. Easterly winds at 10-15 knots will veer to the ESE-SE by sunrise, becoming southerly and increasing to 15-25 knots during the mid-morning (~15Z). Breezy S winds will persist through the afternoon. Westerly wind gusts above 50 knots are possible with thunderstorms during the late afternoon. Southerly winds will decrease to 10-15 knots and shift to the east late tonight and north by sunrise Sunday, near the end of the 12Z TAF period.

McCook: MVFR to IFR ceilings will further deteriorate to LIFR by sunrise. Ceilings will lift and scatter to VFR during the late morning to early afternoon (~17-19Z). Sub-VFR conditions associated with severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon and early evening, most likely between ~23-03Z. Easterly winds at 10-15 knots will veer to the SE by sunrise. SE winds will increase to 13-18 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots around noon (~18Z) and persist through the remainder of the day. Westerly wind gusts above 50 knots are possible with thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Winds will shift to the E late tonight and N by sunrise Sunday, near the end of the 12Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.