textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm temperatures continue into tomorrow, reaching into the 80s during the day and falling to the 50s/60s overnight.

- Although not critical, breezy conditions and drier relative humidity bring an elevated fire weather concern along/west US-385 into tomorrow.

- Chances of rain increase Monday evening to as much as a medium to likely (40-90%) chance late Monday night, bringing the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Breezy northwesterly winds this afternoon near/west US-385, resulting from a 1015-1020 mb surface high over the Colorado Rockies, gradually ease to light and variable overnight tonight as a ridge axis, extending from a high pressure aloft moving over northeastern Mexico, exits the Rockies to the High Plains by tomorrow morning, maintaining dry conditions through at least tomorrow night. Meanwhile, pressure falls expand eastward across the Rockies late tonight into tomorrow, downstream of a mid/upper level trough arriving over the West Coast. This should veer and enhance surface winds tomorrow morning to southeasterly around 10-20 mph, gusting to 15-30+ mph, by tomorrow afternoon, highest again near/west US-385, where winds continue veering and increasing tomorrow night to near 20-25 mph, gusting to 30-40+ mph, out of the south, by Monday morning, persisting through the afternoon, while southwesterly flow takes over aloft. Relative humidity values remain just above Fire Danger Statement criteria, though caution is urged if handling outdoor flames, particularly in the areas already mentioned.

All the while, low and mid-level moisture, part of which is anticipated to be of tropical origin, streaming northeastward off the eastern Pacific, is anticipated to pool ahead of and along a mid-level shortwave trough beginning to arrive to the region by Monday evening. This should aid in weakening southerly surface winds as well build chances of rain Monday evening from a low (10-15%) chance during the daytime to as high as a medium to high (40-90%) along/east US-385, highest along/east US-83, late Monday night while points further west increase to a low to medium (20-40%) chance. We currently anticipate for the shortwave's attendant cold front to begin pushing into the eastern Colorado counties, shifting and increasing winds to northwesterly by Tuesday morning.

Additionally, the latest deterministic short term high resolution and long term models continue to disagree with the time of arrival in both the unsettled weather and ensuing cold front. Rainfall totals by Tuesday morning are currently anticipated to range from little to none along/west US-385 to near 0.15-0.40 inch further east. The NBM suggests a 15-30% probability of totals surpassing 1.00 inch along/east US-83, north of US-36, which is possible given the well-above 90th percentile precipitable water values Monday and Monday night, around 1.3-1.6+ in., bringing the possibility of heavy rain. At this time, thunderstorms are likely to be sub-severe, though bulk shear values of 20-30 knots and surface/most unstable CAPE look to fall within the range of 500-2,000+ J/Kg, which could result in some stronger storms, producing small hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain, especially if activity arrives earlier Monday afternoon. Yet, given building cloud cover and unsupportive mid- level lapse rates, confidence is 30% regarding this potential.

Otherwise, the transition from downslope to upslope winds tomorrow slightly cools high temperatures from widespread low/mid 80s today to the upper 70s and low/mid 80s tomorrow, followed by mid/upper 70s to near 80 on Monday as cloud coverage builds. Overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s persist, warming a degree or two each night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A trough is favored to be trekking across the Southern and Central United States Tuesday morning, with an active jet streak to the north. A cold front is forecast to come through the area sometime during the morning and afternoon. LREF standard deviation in wind direction shows large amounts of spread south and east of a line from Cheyenne Wells, CO to Stratton, NE around noon. This would indicate that the cold front would be along or southeast of this line as well. High temperatures are currently forecast in the low to mid 70s across the forecast area. Precipitation appears likely along the front, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests that most of the area has greater than a 50% chance of receiving greater than 0.1 inches of rain, with portions of Gove and Graham Counties in Kansas around an 80% chance. The only area at less than 50% is portions of Yuma County in Colorado and far northwest Dundy County in Nebraska. LREF guidance shows all areas having less than a 25% chance of seeing surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) greater than 1000 J/kg Tuesday afternoon and evening, which would suggest that this precipitation would be linked to widespread rain as opposed to convective thunderstorms. The exception to this would be if the cold front can manage to come through during the later afternoon or evening. NBM 75th percentile and higher solutions show temperatures in the upper 70s or higher for highs, which could correspond with this scenario. This would allow for extra instability and a higher chance for thunderstorms to develop. However, this is not the favored solution, as rain is primarily expected to exist ahead of the cold front, which would minimize temperatures and prevent more significant instability.

Cool and wet conditions are expected to continue going into Wednesday in association with the trough approaching from the west. Uncertainty continues to remain as to how fast this feature will move eastward. Ensembles show the trough centered in one of the 4- Corners States with a large amount of spread on the trailing edge, which would indicate a slower progression. Guidance also continues to show a modest 40-50 kt jet streak curved cyclonically around the base of the trough, which would favor a surface low developing in the Southern High Plains. Ensemble and deterministic guidance indicates this surface low may be very slow moving, and perhaps stationary Wednesday and Thursday in association with the slow- moving trough. This would create the potential for several days of precipitation. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows most of the area higher than a 70% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain Wednesday, with a 40-45% chance on Thursday. Additionally, higher end (90th percentile and higher) 48 hr precipitation scenarios show between 3 and 4 inches of rain between Wednesday and Thursday. This is a low confidence scenario (5%), but could lead to some localized flash flooding if it occurs.

It should also be noted that the surface low may deepen enough to where northerly winds sustained at 15-20 kts are possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, particularly across portions of Eastern Colorado and far Western Counties in Kansas where NBM guidance shows a 40% chance or greater for such a solution. While highs are currently forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s, we may see a broad area of highs in the low to mid 60s due to the strong northerly winds and rain. NBM guidance suggests about a 15-30% chance across most of the forecast area that highs are below 65 F.

Model guidance begins to diverge by Friday morning, as ensembles are inconsistent on whether the trough will be through the area or not. If the trough remains in the area, conditions similar to Wednesday and Thursday could be experienced. However, if the trough is through the area, warm and dry conditions are possible. An active jet streak to the north may also introduce a more active weather pattern to the forecast area, with EC and LREF ensemble 500-mb mean heights showing a northwesterly flow coming into the forecast area. This would suggest the potential for meandering temperatures as well as on and off precipitation with shortwave systems.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at both KGLD and KMCK, with light winds expected throughout the TAF period. Guidance is indicating IFR and possibly LIFR conditions to develop for KMCK between 08 and 10Z due to low stratus. There is a chance for fog as well, however a lack of sufficient southeasterly winds seems to favor the low stratus. The question for KGLD is whether low stratus will reach the airport, but current guidance seems to favor VFR conditions lasting through the period. Stratus is favored to lift by 16Z at KMCK, transitioning back into VFR.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.