textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning for counties south of Interstate 70 and Kit Carson county from 11a-5p MT. Southwest winds gusting 35-45 mph are currently forecast.

- Modest cold front early Thursday morning may bring wind gusts around 45 mph. Light snow may occur as well but with amounts generally an inch or less.

- A potential winter system may impact the area from Friday morning until Saturday morning. Light snowfall accumulations are expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1034 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Today, we'll have a low coming over the central Rockies, leading to fairly strong southwesterly flow at the surface. This will lead to some gusts near 40 kts in the southwestern CWA, weakening to the north and west. Majority of the CWA will see gusts in the 20-25 kts range, increasing the fire weather risk for today. However, locations along and south of U.S. 40, and Kit Carson county, are the only places that look likely (80%) to drop below 15% RH for 3+ hours today. This has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for these areas.

As typical, the strong winds will weaken around sunset, however they will pick back up later in the night. As the low moves over and out of the CWA, pressure rises behind the low look to average 2-4 mb per hour from 9-15Z. This will cause northwesterly winds to be sustained around 20-25 kts, frequent gusts of 25-35 kts and occasional gusts up to 45 kts. This could stoke any smoldering wildfires, causing them to flare up.

The stronger winds overnight will also cause fairly efficient CAA to move into the CWA, potentially leading to low and mid level saturation across the northern CWA. Vertically stacked at 500 mb, the driving trough coming over the Rockies will introduce widespread vorticity, providing forcing in the saturated area. There are signs of weak CAPE along and north of U.S. 36 during this time. Considering all of this, we are looking at a 30-50% chance at precipitation along and north of U.S. 36 tonight/early tomorrow morning.

Any precipitation that occurs tonight before 7Z would be a rain/snow mix. After 7Z, the P-type will almost exclusively be snow as the low levels cool to below freezing. This will allow the bulk of any precipitation to be snow. However, we are still looking at a few hundredths of QPF, likely (80%) leading to an inch or less of snow accumulation. On the high end of the QPF, there's a 15% chance a snow squall forms, creating sudden white-out conditions and promoting high snowfall rates. This could lead to 1-3 inches of snow accumulation where convective snowfall occurs. The 5% high-end potential for the snow would be if the entire system shifts south 50 miles, potentially leading to 2-5 inches of snowfall over Red Willow county.

With temperatures today warming to around 60, surfaces will likely be above freezing when the precipitation begins, then drop below freezing overnight. This has a high likelihood of refreezing any precipitation that does occur, leading to black ice and slick roads.

Any remaining precipitation will be leaving the area around 21Z tomorrow afternoon. However, the persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, which look to remain sustained around 15-20 kts with gusts around 30 kts all day, will keep high temperatures tomorrow in the low to mid 30s across most of the area. The far southern CWA may warm into the low 40s since they see sunnier skies and less direct CAA.

A mild ridge builds in Thursday evening/night, allowing the sky to clear out. At the surface, we could see a high move over the area after 6Z Friday. This will keep winds calm and allow temperatures to drop into the low teens. There's a 30% chance the northern row of counties see single digit temperatures and brief wind chills near 0.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 148 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Latest model guidance are in good agreement synoptically for the forecast period. Colder temperatures continue Friday with highs forecast in the 30s and lows in the teens. Our region is forecast to be in a weak southwest flow with a weak trough west of the Rocky Mountains. As this trough traverses towards our region, we start to see an increase in Probability of Precipitation (PoPs). PoPs Friday morning range from 20-25% for the western portion of the county warning area (CWA) and increase to about 50% for the entire CWA by Friday afternoon. Snow is the expected precipitation type for this system based on forecast temperatures and winds from the east advecting cooler air towards our region.

Winds are forecast to pick up Friday afternoon for our Colorado counties with gusts up to 35 mph possible. This could cause some instances of blowing snow if enough snow has had a chance to fall by the time peak wind gusts occur. PoPs decrease from west to east as this quick moving system exits our region by early Saturday morning.

Snowfall accumulations are forecast to be minimal from this system. NBM probabilities of snowfall greater than 1.5 inches range from 10- 30%, with the northern portion of the CWA on the higher end. Wind chills will be a concern for our Colorado counties as this system moves through overnight Friday into Saturday. Wind chills in the negatives are possible.

Saturday, our region is forecast to be in a predominately zonal pattern with a ridge building west of the Rocky Mountains. Highs are forecast in the mid-upper 40s and lows in the teens. As the building ridge propogates towards our CWA, the warming trend continues Sunday through Tuesday. Highs for Tuesday are forecast in the low 60s to high 70s. Fire weather may a concern Tuesday with current relative humidity (RH) values forecast in the teens for our Colorado counties. Low confidence on fire weather criticality currently given how far out this is and the response to the potential snowfall event over the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1034 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist for both KGLD and KMCK through the day and most of the night. KMCK could get some snow and MVFR conditions after 6Z. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the big thing. Gusts around 30 kts this afternoon and returning overnight are expected.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ253-254. NE...None.