textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy winds through mid morning with gusts of 20-35 mph behind early morning front.

- Hazy skies are possible from fires in Canada through the afternoon.

- Late afternoon-evening storm chances return by mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Current RAP analysis continues to show high pressure across the Rockies. Further to the north a weak cold front is situated across southern Nebraska and is slowly moving to the south towards the area. A wind shift to the north is forecast to occur starting in the area in between 06-09Z and continue to move to the south through the morning hours. Mixing heights with the front are only a couple hundred feet through around 13Z before increasing to around 1000- 1500 feet. As the front moves through not anticipating much of an increase with the wind, more than likely sustained winds of 10-15 mph due to weak and a wind shift. Around 12-13Z as mentioned mixing heights are forecast to increase so do think that some gusts of 30- 35 knots may be able to be realized as a weak 850mb jet is forecast to remain in place through mid morning. With the front, can't completely rule out some weak or brief showers with the additional forcing but currently anticipating most if not all of any precipitation to remain virga due to dry low levels. With the front some haze from fires in Canada is forecast to move into the area from the north as noted in the 00Z HRRR and RRFS. Not anticipating any impacts with this other than perhaps a notable haze through Tuesday morning and afternoon.

Tuesday, breezy winds are forecast to continue through morning hours with some gusts up to 30 knots through late morning as an 850mb jet lingers over the area and diurnal mixing resumes. Forecast soundings suggests that this jet should weaken as the day goes on but with sustained winds remaining around 15-20 knots through the afternoon. The ridge from the past few days become a bit less amplified leading to a little less hot temperatures than the past few days with high temperatures in the 90s. Tuesday night, a shortwave moves across the northern periphery of said ridge leading to the potential for showers and storms across Yuma, Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties. Guidance also does indicate a warm air advection moving north overnight which also may be the source for additional showers and storms developing a little further south due to isentropic ascent in the 315K level; perhaps as far south as Interstate 70. A developing 700mb jet from the west would serve as some additional forcing as well for some backbuilding potential for northern portions of the area. Severe weather looks to be very unlikely with the activity. Lighting and downpours would be the only potential hazards especially for any ongoing county fairs with livestock remaining outdoors overnight.

Should the rainfall develop as far south as some guidance suggests then the rainfall could last through mid morning before exiting the area. The high pressure then moves south of the area for the day with closer to normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s forecast. If the high were to not push as far south then southern portions of the area may approach the triple digits again. Wednesday evening a subtle wave is forecast to move off of the Rockies and onto the Plains along with a developing 700mb jet to further aid in potential shower and storm development again through the night. Severe weather is again unlikely but some stronger storms could have the potential for some hail up to nickel size as wind shear is a bit better between 20-25 knots. Currently think locally heavy rain would be the primary concern as PWATS are forecast to increase to around 1.5 due to monsoonal moisture off of the Rockies interacts with a plume of some tropical moisture from the southeast. Some ensemble members do try to paint around 1-1.5 inches of rain in 6 hours somewhere across the CWA Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 100 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement on the synoptic evolution through late week and into next weekend, featuring a late summer Southern High Plains/Central Rockies ridge of high pressure pattern. The Tri-State Area will sit on the northern periphery of the mid level ridge axis, maintaining generally zonal flow aloft with subtle shortwave trough impulses ejecting out of Colorado on Thursday and Friday afternoons.

High confidence exists regarding near to above normal warmth. The NBM 25th to 75th percentile range for daily maximum temperatures remains exceptionally tight spread of only 3-5 degrees for Saturday and Sunday with temps nearing 100, indicating strong ensemble consensus for above normal temperatures this weekend. Model spread is higher i.e. higher uncertainty for maximum temperatures for Thursday and Friday on the order of 6-10 degrees ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s depending on cloud cover and precipitation coverage. As the 500 mb ridge amplifies slightly over the Southern Plains Friday into Sunday, warm 850 mb thermal ridges 30-33 C build into the Plains. Median NBM highs push into the upper 90s for most of the CWA, with the eastern third e.g Hill City, Norton, McCook areas seeing a 40-60% probability of temperatures topping 100 degrees on Saturday and 60-80% on Sunday for much of the area. Maximum afternoon heat index values across eastern locations may approach between 100 and 105 on Saturday and Sunday afternoons as low level moisture lingers east of the dryline.

Thursday Afternoon PoPs peak in the 20-40% range west of KS Hwy 27 and across eastern Colorado Cheyenne/Kit Carson counties where terrain forced lift and low-level convergence are greatest. Later in the evening model forecasts indicate higher probabilities heading into Thursday night with increasing chances of at least some precipitation with model averages between 0.15 and 0.25, locally higher amounts possible as high as 40% chance of exceeding 0.30. Ensemble SBCAPE probabilities exceed 40% for > 1000 J/kg east of the dryline each afternoon. However, deep-layer shear remains modest 20-25 kts, keeping storms mostly somewhat unorganized at this time. High inverted-V low levels DCAPE > 1200 J/kg suggest localized strong downburst winds 40-60 mph will be the primary threats with collapsing cells.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 100 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A cold front is slowly moving towards GLD and MCK from the north. Winds are forecast to increase and shift from the north with the passage. Current thinking is that a higher sustained wind is most likely around 20 knots or so. With the front, am noticing a potential brief period where some lower clouds could occur potentially as low as 500 feet. Currently not anticipating a thick layer of stratus potential but have seen in the past in similar situations a brief period of stratus is possible. Confidence is not high enough to include flight category restrictions at this time but will watch upstream observations closely. A period of of wind gusts of 25-30 knots is also possible as diurnal mixing begins around 14Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.