textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy conditions continue through the end of the week.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon in Kansas.

- Hotter over the weekend with triple digits possible.

- Storm chances may return early next week as well as slightly cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Upper Rex block continues over the central CONUS with a ridge/anticyclone over the northern plains and cut off low over Texas. Both of those features do shift with time, but the pattern resets further west over the Rockies by Friday. Hot and mostly dry conditions continue. The 12z RFS does show a few isolated showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon in central Kansas that could drift into the area, apparently tied to a weak disturbance rotating around the upper low in Texas interacting with weak instability. Shear remains very weak, as does the forcing, so not expecting anything more than a few isolated pulse storms that quickly fade by early in the evening, if anything at all. Temperatures slowly rise through the period, reaching the mid 90s by Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A strong ridge over the northern Rockies early in the period will slowly move southward, and will be located over the central and southern Rockies by the end of the period. Hot and dry conditions will prevail through the weekend given the proximity to the ridge, with triple digit temperatures possible. Models have backed off from what was already low precipitation chances they were showing for the weekend. Instead, will need to wait for the ridge to move far enough south for disturbances moving over the top to reach the area. That should start to occur Monday and Tuesday, as convection initiates in Colorado in the afternoon and then moves east through the early evening hours. There may be a weak back door cold front in the mix as well with easterly upslope winds forecast both days. Models show weak instability on Monday with 20-30 kts of deep layer shear, but little to no instability on Tuesday, perhaps due to cloud cover with the easterly winds. This suggests a low probability of severe storms, primarily on Monday if the instability can materialize. Temperatures may cool slightly depending on the timing of the front, but there is increasing spread in the ensemble temperatures both Monday and Tuesday leading to low confidence in just how much cooling may occur.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 429 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK with light winds and mostly clear skies.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.