textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record to record high temperatures today. - Breezy/strong (25-35 G45 mph) north winds expected in the wake of a cold frontal passage Thu aft/eve.

- Critical fire weather possible south of I-70 Thu afternoon.

- Low potential for active weather early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight: Hotter and drier with record or near-record highs in the 90's and minimum RH readings around 10%. Breezy NW winds during the late morning have rapidly weakened to 10-15 mph during the past hour or so (since ~12p MDT, check out KGLD velocity data from 17-19Z). Winds will further weaken this afternoon, becoming variable during the late afternoon. Modest southerly return flow (S winds at 10-15 mph) will follow, this evening and overnight, with overnight (Thu morning) lows in the upper 40's to mid 50's.

Thu-Thu night: Challenging temperature forecast. Winds will shift to the NNE-NE during the mid-late morning as a broad surface low in western KS shifts south toward the OK Panhandle. Expect a north-to-south cooling trend and breezy to strong (~25-35 G 45 mph) NNE to NE winds associated with pronounced surface pressure rises / low-level cold advection during the mid-late afternoon, as modified surface high pressure in the Dakotas shifts southward into Nebraska, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70's north of Hwy 34 to lower 90's in southern Greeley/Wichita counties and overnight (Fri morning) lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, a surface high is forecast to be in place across the area. The morning hours are forecast to be the breeziest in wake of the cold front with southern portions of the area perhaps still seeing 35-45 mph winds as the nocturnal inversion breaks and winds from the 850mb level can mix down. The air mass will be in wake of Thursday's cold front will be cooler and a lot more March like with highs in the 50s across the area. Dry air will again be in place as northeasterly 850mb winds will filter in dry air allowing humidity values to fall into the upper teens to low 20s. With the lack of correlation with the breeziest winds during the morning and the driest air during the afternoon fire weather is currently not of significant concern but a few hours of elevated to locally critical conditions could be possible across eastern portions of the area.

During the night and into the day Saturday a surface trough is forecast to move through as winds shift to the southwest and warming temperatures occur for at least western portions of the area. The majority of GEFS ensemble members favors a bit more eastern progressive warm front which may lead to a large area of critical fire weather concerns as the 850mb wind field is forecast to be 25- 35 knots. The 700mb wind field currently appears to be a little weaker which suggests to me that a stronger sustained winds is most likely. A caveat to the fire weather concerns for Saturday at least across eastern Colorado is the development of a surface low which could weaken the winds during the afternoon. There is also some question if humidity across eastern portions of the area can fall to critical thresholds as this will be dependent on the eastward progression of a warm front. High temperatures for the day are currently in the upper 60s to mid 80s but could be another 5-10 degrees warmer if the warm front is a bit more progressive.

Sunday, warm temperatures are forecast to continue as the surface trough continues to push to the east. Winds for the day are currently forecast to be lighter . Near record high temperatures are again in jeopardy. There is a small potential for some virga/sprinkles/light showers as a with a departing 250mb jet. Currently it appears that northwestern portions of the area at risk for this. However confidence is around 10-14% at this time. Guidance has backed off of the MUCAPE as what I was seeing yesterday but will still need to keep an eye on this on the off chance there could a rogue dry lighting strike with how dry the fuels are.

Starting the new work week, the pattern begins to become a bit more active with the potential for shortwaves within southwesterly flow. Moisture advection is forecast to also be on the increase as well which suggests that showers and perhaps some thunderstorms may be possible across the area. There is still a lot that needs to be ironed out before getting into coverage, amounts and if severe weather will be possible but is something that will need to have an eye kept on. High temperatures for the start of the week are still forecast to remain warm with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1105 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. NNW winds at 15-25 knots this morning will decrease to 10-15 knots by early afternoon and further weaken to 5-10 knots during the mid-late afternoon. Light/variable winds are expected during the late afternoon and evening. Winds will remain light overnight, gradually becoming S to WSW by sunrise Thu morning. Winds will shift to the N or NNE and increase to 10-20 knots during the late morning (15-18Z Thu), at the end of the 18Z TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Today: Hotter and drier with record or near-record highs in the 90's and minimum RH readings around 10%. A short (1-2 hour) period of critical fire weather is expected along and north of I-70 late this morning, when NW winds will reach 15-20 mph with gusts up to ~30 mph. Virtually all model guidance continues to indicate that winds will decrease to ~10-15 mph around Noon MDT (~18Z) and that winds will further weaken as the afternoon progresses.

Thursday: A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for portions of the area on Thursday, mainly south of I-70 where well above normal temperatures and dry conditions (RH as low as 15%) will persist and light (10-20 mph) NE winds during the late morning and early afternoon will abruptly increase to ~25-35 mph w/gusts to 45 mph during the late afternoon. RH readings will quickly rise as temperatures fall from north to south at the onset of strong NE winds / low-level cold advection during the afternoon. While it seems unlikely that Red Flag Warning criteria will be met for several consecutive hours, abrupt strengthening of NE winds during the late afternoon could pose a significant risk to first responders, should any fires develop, especially with extremely dry fuels from prolonged hot/dry weather and worsening drought.

CLIMATE

Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Record high temperatures (for the date) are possible this afternoon.

================================================== Record Highs for Wed March 25 Current Forecast ================================================== Burlington.........83 in 1998 91 Goodland...........85 in 1907 92 Hill City..........88 in 1956 94 McCook.............88 in 1910 92

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for COZ253-254. NE...None.