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KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms continue into the weekend. Severe storms are possible Friday through Monday with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the main threats. A tornado or two may be possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1209 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Today, a trough axis from the low over the western CONUS will be pushing in over the southern Rockies. This will lead to a warm front moving in from the southwest, and some storms look to form in the afternoon hours. Highs on Friday look to warm to around 80.

12Z CAMs have come into a lot more agreement about the convection this afternoon and evening. Starting around 20-22Z, storms look to start firing in eastern Colorado, filling out into a broken line of storms. These storms will move to the northeast, looking to be about half way across the CWA by 0Z.

All threats will be possible with these storms, but intensity is not overly strong. Most likely worse impacts would be 2 inch hail, 70 MPH winds, and a brief tornado. Most of these threats are being driven by a lot of instability, 2,000-3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE. Shear is still looking to be the limiting factor, but has increased over the past 24 hours. Bulk shear looks to be around the 25-40 kts mark, which is enough for supercells, but may be too unstable and unbalanced to produce extremely impactful threats.

This threat could continue until around 3-6Z. The earlier end time would be if the storms weaken and severe weather is no longer a threat with the 6Z timing applicable if storms remain severe until they exits the area to the east. Showers may lingering until 9Z. Overnight temperatures look to remain stable in the 50s.

Saturday, is shaping up to be a conditional high impact severe weather day. As the 500 mb moves over the Four Corners, it will create another trough axis that will sweep over the CWA in the afternoon hours. Down at 850 mb, this will allow a low to form in northern Colorado and move to the north-northeast in the afternoon. This low will draw in southwesterly, warm and dry air, setting up a dryline. East of the dryline, southeasterly flow is expected to keep dew points in the 50s and 60s. The big question is where will this dryline be when both the 500 mb vorticity catches up with it and when surface temperatures hit convective-T values. As it stands, the dryline could setup anywhere along and east a line from Yuma, CO to Oakley, KS when storms start to fire. This also includes a potential that storms fire to the east of the CWA and we are not impacted. It's also worth noting the farther east the dryline sets up, the less likely it will be that any storms develop. This is due to a large separation between the low and upper-level forcing factors.

These storms look to fire between 20-23Z as a broken line of individual cells. We are looking at two different scenarios playing out with these storms. The "high based" scenario would occur if the surface level dew points lowers into the low 40s due to efficient mixing or drier air to the southeast of the CWA. If this occurs, wind gusts up to 65 MPH would be the main hazard with 1 inch hail being possible.

The other scenario is more aggressive and more likely if storms do fire off in the CWA. In this case, the low level dew points remains in the mid 50s to 60s east of the dry line. This would allow CAPE values to climb into the 2,500-4,000 J/kg range with effective shear of 30-55 kts, and promote surface based storms. This would present a significant threat for all hazards. Hail in the 2-3 inch range, 70+ MPH wind gusts from down bursts, and a few tornadoes, potentially long-lived tornadoes, would be possible. As a side note, the 12Z NAMNest shows a worst-case version of this scenario. If dewpoints east of U.S. 83 are near 70F at 21Z, this scenario becomes much more likely.

In either the high based or surface based scenario, convection looks to fire along most of the dryline very quickly and then move to the northeast, out of the CWA, by 3Z. Overnight, temperatures look to cool into the mid 40s to upper 50s as the trough exits to the northeast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Starting with Sunday, the upper level pattern has a shortwave trough making its way through the County Warning Area (CWA). There is a jet streak over the Rockies and the entrance begins to creep in. The high temperatures for the day look to warm up to the mid to high 80s with some localized 90s in the southeastern portions of the region. The lows look to be in the 50s with some localized mid 40s for the Colorado Counties. Winds look to be relatively calm and out of the southeast.

There has been some slight changes in the precipation chances for Sunday's afternoon compared to yesterdays forecast. The CAPE values have decreased quite a bit. NBM and LREF both have there being at most 1000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE for Red Willow, Norton, and Graham counties. Other models are agreeing as well. Surface to 500 mb shear values really haven't change much and still remain in the 25-40 kts range. If there are thunderstorms that develop and they are severe, the main hazards would be, would be 1.50" hail and gusts up to 40-50 kts.

One thing to note is depending on how quick Saturday's system exits the CWA or if we get any wrap around precipitation, Sunday's afternoon storm chances may increase.

For The upper pattern there looks to be a ridge that is sandwiched between two lows over Canada on Monday. Guidance is showing a little shortwave disturbance that can be seen at 500 mb that moves through the CWA. The high temperatures for the day are in the 80s to 90s. The lows remain in the 50s.

There are chances for precipitation/storm chances for Monday. Starting with instability, guidance is suggesting there being at least 1000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE. Some models do suggest there being around 2000 J/kg which would be on the higher end. The NBM and LREF's 90th percentile show around 2000 J/kg as well. Moving to wind shear, the SFC-500 mb shear is in the 30-45 kts range. The lapse rates are currently forecast to be in the 7.9-9.0 C/km range. Dew points look to be in the 45-55 degrees. NCAR AI-NWP does show a signal that would help build confidence in severe weather outcomes. Currently, there is some disagreements with location and specific timing, but the timing does look to be the afternoon into evening. Looking at soundings there is a mixture of both hooked and straight- line hodographs. The main threats that would be associated with these storms would be hail up to 1.50", Gusts in the 45-55 kts, and a brief tornado could be possible if storms develop.

Tuesday high temperatures are in the 80s and lows in the 50s. The winds look to be from the southeast and relatively calm. There is precipation chances for the day. The main timing looks to be in the early evening into the night. CAPE is the range of 1000-1500 J/kg, with little to no shear, which would lead to very little severe chances. Looking at the PoPs there is 50-60% chance. There is about a 20-30% of exceeding 0.10". The PWATs for the CWA show 1"-1.25". Looking at GFS sounds the atmosphere is deeply saturated. Also looking Corfidi up and downshear magnitude would be around or under 20 kts. This would suggest the storms/showers would be slow-moving or stationary.

For the extended period of the week, the low pressure system to the northwest of the ridge will kick out some shortwave troughs that will bring precipitation chances to the region. This does look to be on the weaker side as it quickly crumbles away come Wednesday. Then the upper flow transitions to more zonal flow.

Guidance has been showing the high temperatures to be in the 80s for the majority of this period. For Friday the temperatures warm up a bit to the low 90s, as the upper pattern transitions. The lows are forecast to be in the 50-60s range. Wednesday through Friday PoPs are in the 20-60% range during the each day's afternoon/evening hours. As for severe potential, there is no strong signal for anything yet, but nothing can be ruled out since this is about 5-7 days out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 315 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to dominate through the period for KGLD and KMCK. A round of storms looks to move through the region this afternoon and another round of storms tomorrow afternoon. MVFR conditions may accompany any storms.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.