textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly in Colorado, with a low probability of producing marginally severe hail up to quarter sized.

- Fog, perhaps dense, and frost is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Scattered showers and storms again on Wednesday, but with low probabilities of severe due to lack of instability.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Scattered showers will continue to lift northeast out of Colorado through the overnight associated with a shortwave trough. May see a brief lull around 12z as initial activity moves into central Nebraska, but models show some redevelopment by 18z further south which will keep precipitation chances going in the Nebraska/Kansas border area before finally moving east by mid afternoon. Meanwhile, another disturbance moves through in the afternoon with some phasing of northern and southern stream shortwaves occurring over the area. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast by the CAMs by around 21z in northeast Colorado which will move southeast with the mean flow. Environment will be similar to the past few days, namely low CAPE/high shear, with meager instability values of 100-200 j/kg. Deep layer shear of 50-60 kts may somewhat compensate and storms may briefly produce marginally severe hail, but coverage will be very isolated, ending by 01-02z with loss of surface heating and as the upper support moves out. Tuesday night, models show fog developing east of a Wray, Colorado, to Hoxie, Kansas, line after 06z and persisting to about 15z Wednesday morning. Fog may be dense in those areas.

For Wednesday, still in the confluent area of northern and southern streams with embedded waves in both, which will be enough for scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm development. Starting time appears a bit earlier, as early as 18z, and continuing through the evening hours. Lack of instability will still be a problem for organized updrafts, with most models showing less than 500 j/kg, except the NAMnest which shows 500-1000 j/kg but is probably overdone. Shear continues to be sufficient, anywhere from 40-60 kts, so can't completely rule out a low severe threat, mainly hail, with DCAPE still on the low side suggesting wind will be unlikely.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal both days, with highs in the 50s on Tuesday and 60s on Wednesday. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s, so there may be some patchy frost.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 716 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Thursday, our region is forecast in a southwest upper-level flow downstream of a trough in the western CONUS. This will allow multiple shortwaves to traverse through the region bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 44-87% Thursday, with the southwest portion of the area on the higher end. Rain is expected in the morning and weak instability may support thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thunderstorm potential diminishes after sundown, but overnight showers are likely with PoPs ranging from 20-65% overnight Thursday into Friday. Temperatures are forecast to be unseasonably cool with highs forecast in the mid 50s to low 60s.

We remain in a southwest upper-level flow for Friday, though it is weaker overall. Several shortwave passages and weak instability will bring chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms. PoPs of 25-55% are forecast for the northern and western county warning area (CWA). Temperatures remain unseasonably cool with high temperatures forecast in the high 50s to low 60s.

Going in to the weekend, we transition to more of a ridge pattern. Expect mostly sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Saturday and Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours Sunday. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the high teens with winds gusts around 25 mph possible for the western CWA. RH values will likely change in response to showers and thunderstorms earlier in the week, but still something to monitor for as the week progresses. Monday, we have potential for a active pattern returning due to a low pressure system off the west coast. GEFS Ensemble members greatly vary on the track and intensity of this system, so low confidence on specifics at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Scattered showers will move across the area for the remainder of the overnight and into Tuesday morning. There is a low probability (less than 20%) of either KGLD or KMCK being impacted by brief visibility reductions. Low clouds will develop at both terminals later in the overnight with MVFR and occasionally IFR ceilings by 12z. The ceilings will slowly lift Tuesday morning at KGLD, but persist into the afternoon at KMCK. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms have a low probability (less than 10%) of impacting KGLD.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.