textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and near average to slightly above average temperatures expected, with high temperatures generally in the 70s and 80s.

- Breezy conditions expected Monday afternoon, with gusts generally in the 25-40 MPH range from the southwest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1201 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The next couple of days will be dominated by an upper level high sitting over the Four Corners region. This will keep the jet stream well north of the CWA, keeping us sheltered from any crazy weather.

Today will be a fairly cool day as some east and southeasterly flow keeps us largely in the 70s. This flow is due to a broad, low level high over the Plains. Skies are expected to remain clear to mostly clear today and overnight. The clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to cool into the 50s, with some areas across the CWA potentially dipping into the 40s again.

Early Monday morning, we will see a low level low descend out of the Northern Rockies, leading to an increasing pressure gradient and a LLJ. This will give us south-southwesterly winds throughout the day tomorrow. Sustained speeds are forecast to be in the 15-20 kts range, most gusts in the 25-35 kts range, but there is a 30% chance we see some isolated gusts around 40-45 kts in the central CWA just after noon. Highs could warm into the upper 80s near and northwest of the Tri-State border, but the rest of the area will be closer to 80 degrees.

With these gusty conditions, there is a low, but increased risk of blowing dust and fire weather concerns. The threats are low because where we expect to see the strongest winds (central CWA/Northwestern Kansas), low level lapse rates and RH values are not very supportive. Areas along and northwest of a line from Wray to Flagler, CO have a better chance of seeing steep lapse rates and RH values in the teens, but gusts look to top out under 30 kts. If dust is able to become lofted, there is less than a 10% chance it reduces visibility to under 1 mile and would instead be an air quality issue.

The winds, and subsequently the threats, are expected to lessen as the sun goes down. We don't expect to fully decouple from the LLJ as there is enough of a pressure gradient at the surface to support overnight gusts around 15-20 kts. If we do not decouple, and stay mildly breezy overnight, lows would stay in the mid to upper 50s, maybe even low 60s. If we decouple and winds become light, we can expect temperatures to cool into the low 50s, fairly similar to Sunday night's temperatures.

Additionally, around 9-12Z, we can expect the low coming out of the Northern Rockies to send a cold front sweeping across the CWA. This would lead to a fairly rapid change in wind directions, and potentially a brief increase in gusts. There is a 10% chance that the front fires off some weak showers, but a lack of available moisture keeps the chances low.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Synoptically, for Tuesday through next Sunday, our upper level flow remains mainly from the northwest for the majority of the period. Starting around Wednesday, our flow will begin to transition to mainly zonal as a weak upper level ridge passes through. By Saturday, as the ridge makes its way to the Eastern CONUS, our flow will transition to come from the southwest through Sunday. Friday through Sunday, Guidance indicates potential shortwaves moving through the County Warning Area (CWA). Sunday is where Guidance begins to diverge on the upper level pattern. The majority of the long range models show an upper level trough beginning to move into the region, but guidance presents multiple solutions regarding the strength and trajectory. With this being roughly seven days out, it will be something to monitor as we move through the week.

Overall, high temperatures across the Tri-State area should remain in the 70s and 80s. Tuesday is currently forecast to be the warmest day of the period, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Guidance, including the Canadian-NH and GFS, show a boundary or front moving through the region from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. As this boundary moves through, temperatures should "cool" down to the upper 70s and low 80s before Saturdays highs briefly warm back to the low to mid 80s. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are forecast to remain under 5% throughout the period. However, depending on the strength of any shortwaves that pass through, PoPs could potentially increase.

At this time, there is a low potential for fire weather concerns during this period, Tuesday will be the primary day to monitor. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to drop around 20-25% for areas west of KS Hwy 27, with winds of 5-15 mph and gusts up to 25- 30 mph. On Tuesday morning, winds should start out from the southwest before shifting clockwise to the east by the afternoon. While this does not reach critical fire weather, it is something to keep an eye on especially with the potential boundary/front moving through which could lead to lower RH values. For the rest of the period, RH values mostly stay above 25%, with sustained winds of 5- 15 mph and gusts in the 15-15 mph range. Friday through Sunday, breezier afternoons with gusts reaching 30-40 mph are possible.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 429 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions are still expected through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Through the evening and overnight hours, southeasterly winds in the 5-20 kts range are expected. Around sunrise Monday, winds will become south-southeasterly and by noon will be gusting around 30 kts, potentially gusting closer to 35-40 kts through the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.