textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions and light blowing dust possible today.

- Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the end of the Christmas week.

- Near record to record highs also possible Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1228 AM MST Sun Dec 21 2025

Today, a mostly stationary low will form along the eastern face of the Northern Rockies while a high pressure system moves east, out of Kansas. This will create a moderately tight boundary gradient over the High Plains, leading to a southerly 850 mb jet around 30-40 kts. These winds should mix down to the surface, leading to gusts likely ranging from 25-35 kts, but isolated gusts up to 45 kts cannot be ruled out.

We are looking at a pretty low level inversion remaining in place too, likely around 1-2 km AGL, which will prevent deep mixing. However, 0-0.5 km lapse rates will be pretty steep in the southeastern CWA, ranging from 8-10 C/km as temperatures warm into the low to mid 50s. These steep lapse rates, with an inversion, and gusts ranging from 25-35 kts has a 50-60% chance of creating blowing dust. This blowing dust will mainly impact air quality as visibilities should remain above 3 miles. The midday will be at the most risk for blowing dust. On the plus side, RH values Sunday will remain above 30%, minimizing the fire weather risk. There is a 30% chance the clouds today will keep highs in the 40s. This would also reduce the blowing dust threat and likely keep wind gusts below 30 kts.

Tonight, the low will move east and send a weak, elevated cold front through the CWA between after 06Z. Likely, there will not be any impacts at the surface. Winds look to be fairly light tonight, combine with the likelihood that the sky will be mostly clear, temperatures are expected to cool pretty well. Lows look to cool into the mid 20s to low 30s.

Monday, generally zonal flow will continue, leading to mild conditions at the surface. Winds will be pretty weak Monday, with only some occasional gusts around 17-20 kts in eastern Colorado. Temperatures are forecast to warm up very nicely, into the 70s for most of the Tri-State area. Record highs are possible and more information about that can be found below in the climate section. RH values will drop into the mid to upper teens, but the lack of winds minimizes fire weather threats. Monday night, temperatures will cool into the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM MST Sun Dec 21 2025

Starting the extended period Tuesday, a weak cold front is forecast to move into the area during the morning hours. Cold front is weaker than what was being seen last night so high temperatures for the day have increased into the 60s area wide. Also not as impressed with the winds as an inversion is seen in soundings between 850-820 mb which is keeping the gust potential at bay. Currently sustained winds of 10-15 mph look most likely to occur from the south. Winds Tuesday night and into Wednesday are forecast to shift from the south leading to overnight lows above freezing and potentially not even falling out of the 40s if cloud cover can hold strong.

Troughing across the western CONUS and a high pressure system across the southern CONUS sets the stage for a warm day for the area from a pattern recognition standpoint for Wednesday. Near record to record highs are again possible. Winds for the day look weaker, which was one of the concerns that was mentioned last night as the high pressure across the south has trended further north impacting the wind field. This and very shallow mixing heights maxing out around 2000'AGL primarily across Greeley and Wichita counties has significantly lowered my confidence in multiple hours of critical fire weather. Humidity values still are forecast to fall into the mid/upper teens and perhaps sporadic gusts of 25 mph may occur leading to brief and localized critical fire weather at best. GEFS spaghetti ensembles also support the more broad high pressure over the south which really does make me question the overall fire weather potential.

For Christmas Day, guidance does show a developing surface low to the northeast of the forecast area which may lead to a period of breezy conditions as the the 850mb jet is forecast to increase but currently is a little difficult to say how strong the winds may be as guidance has trended more towards a broad low which would lower the overall wind potential due to lesser of a pressure gradient. Overall not anticipating any hazards on Christmas Day but mild temperatures are on the table with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. There is a 25% chance of some Christmas Day record highs being set as well across the forecast area.

Next weekend, a cold front may move through the area. ECMWF-AIFS ensemble members show around a 50% chance of a strong front, whereas the GEFS-enesmbles show no front. There is also the potential for a system from the western CONUS moving into the area but spaghetti models have no consistency at all with the track and intensity of the system still. There is more consistency if a hot pan of spaghetti where to fall on the floor than what the spaghetti ensemble members show with this next potential system. Overall temperatures trends however continue to favor above normal but cooler temperatures from the work week next weekend in the upper 40s to mid 50s. But if the ECMWF-AIFS does pan out then temperatures may be a bit cooler than what is currently forecast. There still may be a slim chance at some light precipitation late next weekend depending on how the system pans out but confidence is not high at all.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 400 AM MST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR conditions are still expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the period. LLWS at 400-700 feet AGL from the southwest at 35-45 kts is likely at KGLD and KMCK this morning, before the inversion wears off. Once the inversion weakens, gusts generally ranging around 25-35 kts for KGLD and 5 kts weaker for KMCK are expected throughout the day. Patchy blowing dust is possible, but will likely not impact flight categories. Winds will weaken around sunset and KMCK could see a return of the LLWS around 2-6Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1245 AM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

Record high temperatures are again in jeopardy Monday the 22nd Goodland: Record high 73 in 2024.... current forecast 74.

McCook: Record high 73 in 2024.... current forecast 67.

Hill City: Record high 69 in 2019... current forecast 66.

Burlington: Record high 71 in 2019.... current forecast 74.

Record high temperatures also possible Wednesday the 24th Goodland: Record high 77 in 1955.... current forecast 71.

McCook: Record high 74 in 1964.... current forecast 65.

Hill City: Record high 67 in 2021... current forecast 67.

Burlington: Record high 79 in 1955.... current forecast 71.

Record high temperatures also possible Christmas Day Goodland: Record high 74 in 1950.... current forecast 70.

McCook: Record high 70 in 1929.... current forecast 68.

Hill City: Record high 76 in 1950... current forecast 70.

Burlington: Record high 67 in 1929.... current forecast 70.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.