textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions, breezy winds and near average temperatures expected through at least the start of the new work week.

- Signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions continues.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

No big changes with an upper ridge remaining in control and no precipitation expected. Surface high in Missouri will continue to provide southeast winds, breezy at times, and maintain dew points in the 50s and 60s which will keep relative humidity minimums well above any fire weather concerns. Little change in temperatures is expected with highs in the lower 90s. Cannot completely rule out patchy fog in the morning hours with the high dew points and radiational cooling, but confidence is low as models not showing any development at this time.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 113 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Thursday morning, an upper level high will be sitting across majority of the CONUS, pushing the jet into southern Canada. This will lead to largely calmer weather, although it looks to be hot and potentially humid. This pattern largely continues through the period, however over the weekend, a weak low looks to form over Texas and remain there until early next week. This could lead to some convective development over the weekend.

Any convection that occurs would likely be driven by 850 mb features. As it stands, south-southeasterly flow is expected Thursday through Friday evening. This will bring in some additional moisture into the CWA. Coupled with a low level cold front, we could see storms Friday or Saturday evening. After the cold front, the flow looks to be favor the southwest, which should dry out the CWA a little bit. Even though Friday and Saturday look to be the best days for convection, each day has a chance at weak convection from convective-T driven storms.

Temperatures for the long-term are pretty persistent. Highs look to warm into the 90s, potentially nearing 100 in the souther CWA. Overnight lows look to be in the low 60s in eastern Colorado and low to mid 70s in Graham and Norton counties.

Even with the potential for southwesterly winds to dry us out a bit more in the late weekend, there is still only a low chance for critical fire weather conditions. As it stands, RH values look to remain above 20%. However, daily gusts in the 20-35 kts range are currently forecast as we will be able to mix through most of the column, allowing some stronger winds to reach the surface. Additionally, any storms would have a moderately high potential of creating dry lightning, adding another risk to fire concerns.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Low to mid level clouds have developed across the area, MVFR at KGLD but just above that and VFR at KMCK, and will persist into the afternoon hours. VFR should be prevailing at both locations by 00z. Overnight, patchy fog is possible but confidence is low, continuing into early Monday morning if it does develop.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.