textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong cold front Saturday brings in prolonged precipitation potential through Monday. Low chance of flooding from this system.

- Freezing temperatures look to return Tuesday morning. Wind chills may be in the mid 20s near the Tri-State border.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Current observations have an upper cut-off low over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front is moving through the area and was stretched across from Cheyenne Wells to Norton close to the noon hour. Behind the front, winds have shifted to out of the north and picked up with speeds around 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. This should persist through the afternoon and early evening hours, before slowly fading as the front and pressure gradient weakens. Showers continue to pop up in the area with the upstream upper low, front moving through, and continued moisture advection in the southerly flow ahead of the front. The activity is currently disorganized and producing light rain with little instability to work with. However, the widespread cloud cover as a result is capping temperatures, likely limiting highs to in the 50s.

This evening and into the overnight hours, rain and storm activity is forecast to increase with a surface low taking better shape just southwest of the area and pushing rain north into the area. The front is also likely to stall just south of the area and help produce more rain. Storms currently look to be hit and miss with the area unlikely to recover any instability, especially with the early showers moving through. We should still see moderate to heavy rain at times and allow some areas to accumulate an inch or a little more. With the increase in moisture, fog is likely to develop across the area. This will be especially true for areas that don't see rain for a few hours at a time. This could also allow for some patches of dense fog with an upslope component to the surface winds from the east/northeast. Temperatures aren't forecast to change too much overnight, though likely drop into the 40s as cold air tries to move in from the north behind the cold front.

Sunday, the upper low is forecast to shift slightly northeast and center closer to the Four Corners region. As it does so, the area is forecast to initially be in a weak surface flow pattern underneath high pressure. With the flow forecast to be from the east, fog could persist most of the morning and into the afternoon. Precipitation, will likely be more spotty through the morning and early afternoon hours with very weak forcing in the area. With the cloud cover and fog, temperatures are unlikely to change much with highs in the 50s for most of the area. Those in the east may see some 60s as the increased low level moisture drives dewpoints into the mid to upper 50s. Shower and storm activity should increase during the afternoon and evening hours as the upper low gets closer and another near surface low develops on the lee of the Rockies and provides some additional forcing. The activity should peak during the evening hours, then weaken as the pressure gradient becomes weaker and forcing lowers. Another night of light rain showers and fog is then forecast for a majority of the area, with maybe some clearing in Eastern Colorado if the upper low pushes far enough east. Lows will likely be in the 40s and 50s, with a few 30s where clearing occurs.

Monday, the upper low is forecast to push north and east, weakening its influence over the area. The area could still have some lingering showers and fog through much of the morning, but should clear from west to east. With the skies clearing, most of the area should warm into the 60s. Winds are forecast to lighten as the day goes on with broad low pressure spreading across the area. During the overnight hours, we are forecast to become much colder with much of the area near or below freezing by sunrise Tuesday. This is due to drier air forecast to move in, and clearer skies. Those east of Highway 83 may escape the cold and stay closer to the 40s.

The hydro section below covers the flooding threat pretty well. But in short, if bands get set up during the heavier rainfall in the late afternoon and evening hours, there will be a 35% chance of flooding. The main inhibitors are the potential lack of convection (lowering rainfall rates) and the system moving just enough to limit training shower/storm potential.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Tuesday, we are forecast to be under a weak ridge with a digging trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant with highs forecast in the 60s for the county warning area (CWA).

Our region is forecast to be on the back end of a weak jet streak, so we have the potential for breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon for the western CWA. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible, although lingering cloud cover from earlier precipitation could prevent stronger winds from mixing down to the surface. If skies completely clear or clear earlier, we could see stronger winds. Models are a bit conflicted on the wind potential due to placement of the jet streak and potential cloud cover. NBM probabilities have around a 40% chance of wind gusts over 35 mph for our Colorado counties. LREF has probabilities of wind gusts over 30 mph less than 10%.

Conditions are forecast to remain pleasant on Wednesday with partly cloudy skies and high temperatures forecast in the 60s across the area. As the day progresses, we transition to more of a southwest upper-level flow with a developing trough off the west coast.

Thursday and Friday, the forecast remains consistent with high temperatures forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. Our southwesterly upper-level flow will bring chances for rain showers late Thursday through Friday evening as embedded shortwaves are ejected across the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 20-30% with low QPF amounts.

Looking past Friday, we have the potential to return to more of an active weather pattern based on the forecast track and evolution of the aforementioned trough off the west coast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Ceilings are forecast to vary between 1000-3500ft through about 22-00Z as moisture continues to move into the area. A few showers are also possible during this time frame. The chances for showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two increase after 00Z and linger through at least 12Z. Severe weather is unlikely. Ceilings will likely lower below 1000ft after 00Z unless a thunderstorm is nearby and mixes the air a bit. Also, be prepared for fog, with visibility between 1-5SM. Finally, the cold front has pushed through, so winds will remain from the north at 15-25 knots with gusts around 25-40 knots. The winds should begin to lower after 00-03Z.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 331 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

As mentioned in the short-term discussion above, we are expecting on and off precipitation to last into Monday evening. WPC has issued Excessive Rainfall Outlooks showing portions of the CWA in a Slight risk. These outlooks aren't unfounded, but confidence for flash flooding, which that outlook focuses on, is less than 15%. Reason being, there does not seem to be a particular time when heavy rain is expected to fall.

Deterministic guidance is suggesting 1-2 inches of rain falling over most of the CWA, a band of up to 3 inches, and pockets of up to 4.5 inches of rainfall by Tuesday morning. This is likely too high of QPF values, which is supported by ensemble means. Ensemble means suggest most of the CWA will receive 0.25-1 inch, a band of up to 2 inches, and isolated pockets up to 3 inches. These values seem more realistic and are reflected in the official forecast.

This band of higher precipitation amounts will occur where the cold front stalls out Saturday evening, creating a stationary boundary. This will be a north-northeast/south-southwest oriented band, potentially stretching across the entire CWA, but is favored (60%) to remain south of I-70. The band is likely (66%) to setup along and west of a line from Atwood to Selkirk, KS, but may setup as far east as U.S. 283. Wherever the band sets up, there will be a 35% chance of areal and/or river flooding. Low water crossings will likely be the first areas impacted from any flooding that does occur.

It's worth noting, there is a 25% chance that the boundary does not remain very stationary and "bounces" back and forth. If this occurs, a well defined band of higher precipitation would likely not form and the risk of flooding lowers to around 10%.

In total, there is:

85% confidence the entire CWA will receive a tenth of an inch or more of rain from this system.

Less than 15% confidence in Flash Flooding.

35% confidence areal and/or river flooding will occur.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.