textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions and light blowing dust possible Sunday.

- Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the end of the Christmas week.

- Potential for critical fire weather conditions Monday and Wednesday. Near record to record highs also possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1054 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

For the remainder of today, temperatures are forecast to slowly climb into the 40s as the upper cloud cover has been persistent and is likely to persist with satellite observations continuing to show moisture streaming in from the west. Showers have also been occurring just northwest of the area during the morning where a pocket of lower level moisture has been located. This pocket of moisture has been unable to overcome the dry air in the area and is likely to diffuse out going into the afternoon.

Tonight, the high pressure and colder air mass are forecast to slide to the east. This should weaken the pressure gradient and allow for calm winds through most of the night. The cloud cover is forecast to continue and help temperatures stay a bit above dewpoint the in the mid to upper 20s. Towards sunrise, lower pressure is forecast to develop along the Front Range and increase winds from the south to around 10-15 mph.

Tomorrow, a 850-500mb trough is forecast to move through the larger flow into the Rockies and help strengthen the low pressure along the Front Range. This should increase winds at the surface to around 15- 25 mph as the day goes on. As for gusts, the height gradient should tighten and allow winds at 850-700mb to reach 30-35 kts, allowing for the potential of gusts up to 45 mph. However, similar to today, upper level cloud cover is forecast to continue to push over the area and inhibit how much we mix out. So for now, gusts are forecast to be in the 30 to 35 mph range. Should the clouds clear and gusts go more into the 40 mph range, there is a chance for some patches of blowing dust. While unlikely to do much to visibility, some reduction in air quality may occur. Overall chance for blowing dust to impact visibilities is a bout 20% . Temperatures should try to reach the 50s, but may stay in the 40s if the cloud cover is thick. Critical fire weather is not a concern at this time with relative humidity forecast to be above 30%. Even if temperatures climb into the mid 50s, relative humidity would likely bottom out in the low 20s.

Tomorrow night, the surface low should continue to progress east over the area along with a weak surface front. As it does so, winds should lower below 10 mph and shift to out of the west. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

Christmas week continues to be forecast to have above average temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s underneath upper level ridging. Lows are forecast to generally be in the 30s. The ridging is also forecast to keep the area fairly dry through the week. Guidance is hinting at the possibility of some troughs moving through in Southern Canada on Monday and Thursday, dragging weak low pressure systems/fronts through the Plains. This is why Tuesday and Friday are forecast to be the cooler days of the week. It is unlikely that they lead to anything impactful, but we continue to watch if they will be strong enough to lead to wind gusts around 25 to 30 mph. If so, with the prevailing dry conditions, there could be concerns for critical fire weather conditions.

Late in the week on Friday/Saturday, guidance consensus is that a trough will form in the Western United States and push east towards the area. If/when this trough gets close to the area, a stronger system should push through the area and allow for cooler temperatures and stronger winds. There is not much of a consensus on timing and intensity, so for now we wait to see what will come out of this potential system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1011 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. LLWS from the southwest around 40 kts at 500 feet AGL is possible this morning for both KGLD and KMCK before the winds mix to the surface. During the day, be aware of gusts around 30-35 kts, but most gusts will be between 20-30 kts. There's a chance some blowing dust gets kicked up, too. Winds will weaken at sunset, and KMCK is likely to see more LLWS after 0Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

Some critical fire weather conditions may develop on Monday across eastern Colorado as near record to record highs continue resulting in low humidity values in the teens. The biggest question will be the strength of the winds however. A subtle increase to around 20-25 knots in the 850mb jet across Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties is seen which is stronger than what was seen 24 hours ago. This is where mixing heights are highest at around 1500-2000 feet versus less than 1000 feet further east. Using 00Z GFS soundings which typically handles mixing the best the potential is there for wind gusts up to 30 mph but confidence is only around 10% in that strong of winds but around 20% for 25 mph. But we are in the time of the year closest to the Winter solstice where getting numerous hours of strong mixing is very difficult due to shorter duration of the days. With this being said confidence in one hour of critical conditions, at least localized, is around 20-30% but getting 3 or more hours for Red Flag conditions is only around 10% at this time due to concerns of how long conditions can overlap for. Overall concern for fire danger is currently moderate to high as looking at fire weather parameters according to counties on the Colorado/Kansas line according to the Kansas mesonet shows 11% 10 hour fuel moisture and an ERC around 32 which falls around the 50th percentile. There is a about a 60% chance of conditions in the 75th percentile of the HDWI as well across Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties but only around 20- 30% chance for the 90th percentile which further increases confidence in the current forecast.

Wednesday, is currently the day that is being watched the closest. RH is already forecast in the low to mid teens due to another day of near record to record highs. From a pattern recognition standpoint with developing troughing out west temperatures could very well over perform with southwesterly winds in place. The area of concern is mainly across Kit Carson, Sherman, Wallace, Cheyenne (CO) and Greeley counties. Guidance has trended a little stronger with the low level wind field from what was seen 24 hours ago. Probabilities are a little higher (around 40%) in wind gusts exceeding 30 mph. The amplitude of high pressure across the southern CONUS appears to be what will dictate the strength of the winds. If the high pressure pushes further north the winds will be weaker. Currently confidence in one hour of critical conditions is around 30-40% but for three or more hours around 20-25% at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1245 AM MST Fri Dec 19 2025

Record high temperatures are again in jeopardy Monday the 22nd Goodland: Record high 73 in 2024.... current forecast 73.

McCook: Record high 73 in 2024.... current forecast 65.

Hill City: Record high 69 in 2019... current forecast 65.

Burlington: Record high 71 in 2019.... current forecast 73.

Record high temperatures also possible Wednesday the 24th Goodland: Record high 77 in 1955.... current forecast 73.

McCook: Record high 74 in 1964.... current forecast 66.

Hill City: Record high 67 in 2021... current forecast 69.

Burlington: Record high 79 in 1955.... current forecast 72.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.