textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures today. Daily record highs and even monthly record highs are expected.

- Red Flag Warning issued for today into the overnight hours for southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Very dry conditions and wind gusts of 30-40 mph possible.

- Front moves through tonight, bringing much cooler temperatures and a chance for blowing dust.

- Fire weather concerns continue next week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Ridge is a bit more amplified than what some guidance was indicating via 15Z RAP analysis which has a 588dam high pressure system across the southwest CONUS. Hot temperatures remain forecast for the entire area with highs in the 90s to even some low 100s on the table as well. Record highs and even monthly record highs will more than likely be set for tomorrow, some of these highs are over 100 years old which shows how anomalous of a pattern this is.

Winds are forecast to increase starting as early as 16Z. Am a little concerned about the magnitude of the wind to what has been messaged as the surface trough is a bit disjointed on the RAP analysis which may delay the onset of the winds until mid afternoon which is seen in latest HRRR, RAP and NAM soundings as well. Highest confidence in multiple hours of Red Flag Warning criteria to occur remains along and east of highway 83 versus western portions may be solely dependent on gusts due to deep afternoon mixing. Not going to make any changes at this time to the warning as humidity values are already in the low teens as of 15Z along with the forecasted hot temperatures and the very dry and ready to burn fine fuels across the entire area. .

During the evening, am anticipating a period of lighter winds across the area as the nocturnal inversion sets in but am forecasting winds to begin to increase again around 02-04Z or so as pressure rises occurs with a pre frontal trough which should be enough to tap into a 20-30 knot 850mb jet. If this does not occur then only aviation impacts in the form of low level wind shear would occur. Locally critical to critical fire weather conditions is forecast to still be ongoing across portions of the area during this time as humidity is forecast to still be around 15% if the winds can mix to the surface.. A cold front is then forecast to move through the area between 06 and 08Z further shifting winds to the north. Additional pressure rises of 5-8mb over three hours is forecast resulting in wind gusts around 35-45 mph with the strongest favoring eastern portions of the area. Some forecast soundings do show some 45 knot winds around 2000 feet AGL resulting in the potential for some isolated wind gusts up to 55 mph as well. 15Z RAP cross section analysis does suggest that -3 microbars of omega associated with a localized band of 850mb warm air advection could be in place across northwestern portions of the area around 10-12Z Sunday which may be enough to generate some sprinkles or even light showers. Due to the continued signal for this have opted to include a small window for some sprinkle potential.

Breezy to gusty winds up to 50 mph are forecast to continue through the morning hours on Sunday. Pockets of very localized blowing dust is possible due to how dry everything is but currently think any blowing dust would be more of an air quality issue due higher 2- 2.5km lapse rates in place. Winds are then forecast to wane as the afternoon goes on as we lose the effects of the cold front and the pressure rises stabilizes out. Cooler, albeit closer to normal high temperatures are forecast for the day with highs in the 60s. Temperatures could end up a few degrees warmer than forecast as the cold air advection wanes but with 850mb winds continuing to be from the northeast think the overall fetch of cold air advection is enough to think that any critical fire weather issues will be lower as it is a struggle for any humidity values to fall below 20% currently.

Sunday evening and overnight some moisture, gets pooled up along and west of the Highway 27 corridor thanks in part to the surface high will easterly winds in place. A weak 500mb shortwave is also forecast to move off of the Rockies which could lead to some light showers across northern portions of the forecast area. The best lift is in the 700-500mb layer but with the subtle moisture in between 850 and 700mb some of this could actually reach the ground. Overall not expecting much in way of amounts so will maintain the slight chance mention inherited in the forecast. The increase in clouds overnight should also help keep overnight low temperatures above freezing for most if not all of the forecast area.

Monday, the pressure gradient tightens across the area leading to more breezy to gusty winds across the area as a warm front progresses to the west. SSE winds are forecast to be present. Elevated fire weather is a concern as most guidance, even the moist bias NAM indicates that just to the east of the warm front drying is forecast to occur as dew points fall into the low 20s to upper teens. Locally critical fire conditions are also in the realm of possibility as well for the day especially if temperatures could warm a few more degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1108 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Southwest winds are forecast for this afternoon for each terminal. Wind gusts around 25 knots are forecast for each terminal. They are forecast to be more frequent for MCK than GLD. Contemplating a tempo instead of a FM group for GLD but due to the longer duration of the potential opted the FM group would convey the message a bit better. Winds are then forecast to go light and variable for bit this evening before either LLWS or breezy winds returns starting between 02-04Z. Opted to go LLWS for this TAF issuance as given the setup seems the most likely but if enough mixing can still occur this evening then wind gusts of 20-30 knots could still continue through 06Z. A cold front then moves through overnight with gusty to strong winds, strongest for MCK. Would not be surprised if a period of stratus occurs between 10-13Z favoring GLD but probabilities surprisingly were fairly low for MVFR conditions (20%) that opted to hold off for this TAF issuance. Breezy to gusty winds will continue through at least the morning Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Winds may be a bit delayed to develop this afternoon until around 3pm CT as the surface trough that is forecast to bring the winds is a bit disjointed currently. The exception to this looks to be Graham and Gove county where the 850mb wind field is a bit stronger currently. Until early to mid afternoon sporadic wind gusts of 20-25 mph remains forecast to occur. Despite the lower wind gusts initially with the hot temperatures and very low humidity fire weather conditions till remain a concern especially with dry and ready to burn fine fuels are according to state partners.

Still forecasting a period of lighter winds early this evening before winds may increase again around 10pm central time. Confidence in the winds increasing again is around 50-60% as in past set ups this has been the case to occur plus we start getting some influences of the incoming cold front. If the winds were to increase then wind gusts of 20-30 mph would occur. Humidity values are still forecast to remain around 15% during this time as well so very little if any relief is expected.

A cold front still remains on track to move through during the early morning hours. Generally wind gusts of 35-45 mph are forecast to occur with it but some wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible are across Red Willow, Decatur, Norton, Graham and Sheridan counties between 3am-6am CT. Can't rule out some blowing dust with the passage of it due to the very dry conditions as the winds increase but not overly concerned for significant issues other than near open fields. With higher lapse rates think most if not all of the dust should mix out resulting in air quality concerns. With the potential for 3 rounds of fire spread concerns the ending time of 09Z continues to look reasonable for the Red Flag Warning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 120 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Some daily record highs and even monthly March record highs are in jeopardy of falling today.

Record high temperatures Saturday March 21st

Goodland: Record high 84 in 1907 & 2011.... current forecast 94.

McCook: Record high 89 in 1910.... current forecast 98.

Hill City: Record high 93 in 1907... current forecast 99.

Burlington: Record high 84 in 2011.... current forecast 92. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Monthly (March) Record Highs:

Goodland: 90 degrees March 20th, 1907

McCook: 93 degrees March 16th, 2015

Burlington: 93 degrees March 19th, 1921

Hill City: 94 degrees March 16th, 2015

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...None. NE...Red Flag Warning until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.