textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased fire danger today in the wake of a cold front with winds from the northwest gusting 25-40 mph.

- Highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast through the next week, except Wednesday which will be in the 40s and 50s.

- Some light rain showers are forecast Tuesday night. Some snow may be able to mix in as well. There is a 10% chance that freezing rain or drizzle develops, leading to slick spots.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Current observations show the cold front has moved through most of the area with winds mostly from the north. Speeds have increased to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 25 to 40 mph. The front did lead some areas to briefly warm into the 60s and approach Red Flag criteria, but temperatures have since been slowly cooling behind the front with relative humidity back towards the higher teens and low 20s.

Tonight, a benign night is forecast with mostly clear skies and winds lowering to 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday, the area is forecast to remain under a broad trough and northwest flow aloft. That being said, the main mass of cold air is forecast to still be in the Northern US through the day. This should allow most of the area to warm into the 50s, with upper 50s possible south of I-70 if the mid level cloud cover delays until close to noon. Winds otherwise should be around 10-15 mph with the area under semi-broad low pressure at the surface.

Tuesday night, a reinforcing trough is forecast to move through the Plains from the north. As it does so, it should bring the colder air mass down through the Plains and into the area. It is also forecast to advect some lower level moisture into the area ahead of the cooler air mass. With the saturation, upper trough, and weak associated surface front, precipitation is possible for most of the area overnight. The majority of guidance continues to suggest that QPF will range from 0 to 0.05". While some have amounts closer to 0.1-0.2", this is forecast to develop ahead of the cold air mass that is acting like a front and lead to heavier rain showers. Otherwise, most of the area (especially north of I-70) should see mist/drizzle and some light rain showers. As the night progresses, the colder air should push in and either change the rain to snow, or allow for brief periods of freezing rain. The chance that freezing rain or drizzle develops and leads to ice accumulations is below 10%, but things could become very slick if it does occur. The best chance for this is north of I-70. The saving grace is that temperatures near the surface may remain decently above freezing through a majority of the night due to the cloud cover inhibiting cooling and the increased moisture potentially increasing dewpoint above freezing. Still, keep an eye on the forecast and have a plan in case slick spots are able to develop Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Wednesday, the upper trough should push off to the east with the upper ridge in the west expanding into the area. This should end any precipitation, drizzle, or fog through the morning hours. With skies forecast to clear from west to east, temperatures should be able to warm into the 50s for counties along the Colorado border, and 40s for most of the area to the east. Winds are forecast to be around 15- 20 mph with the high pushing southeast of the area and a low pressure area developing to the northwest.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 249 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Thu-Fri: The Tri-State area will be situated on the eastern periphery of a pronounced upper level ridge over the Intermountain West/Rockies.. in modest NNW (Thu) to W (Fri) flow aloft. Expect dry conditions, light winds and well above average highs in the 60's. For reference, average high temperatures this time of year are 42-44F.

Sat-Sun: Long range guidance indicates that an upper level low prognosticated to move ashore the central-southern Pacific Coast Fri-Fri night will become trapped beneath the ridge and progress slowly E-ESE across the Basin and Range Province (Sat), 4-Corners (Sun) and Southern Plains (Mon). Barring a significant change in the evolution and track of the aforementioned wave, dry conditions are likely to persist in the Goodland county warning area. Expect relatively cooler (albeit still above average) highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 401 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Tuesday afternoon, widely scattered high based showers/virga will develop, which may briefly impact either terminal with gusty winds and sprinkles/flurries, with cloud bases around 10kft.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.