textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Small window for heightened fire danger this afternoon in Yuma and Kit Carson counties in Colorado, Cheyenne County in Kansas and Dundy county in Nebraska.

- Significantly cooler weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday with an increasing chance of precipitation Wed and Wed night.

- Threat for first frost of the season increasing Friday and Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Through Tue night: An upper level low currently digging SSE from Oregon into northern Nevada will briefly stall over NV tonight, then drift east toward the 4-Corners Tue-Tue night. 12Z guidance suggests that the upper low will then gradually lift ENE-NE across central and northeast Colorado Wed-Wed night, steadily deamplifying/weakening along the way. A tightening height gradient between the eastward advancing upper low and a pronounced ridge over the Gulf Coast and Lower MS River Valley will lead to the development of a strong southwesterly upper level jet in the lee of the Rockies. In the lower levels, modest (1015-1020 mb) surface high pressure assoc/w confluent flow aloft over the Dakotas will extend southward into the Central Plains late tonight, the leading edge of which will manifest as a NE-ENE wind shift and effective cold frontal passage Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, strengthening SW flow aloft will facilitate the development of a broad cyclone in the lee of the central- southern Rockies. Guidance suggests that the effective cold front will progress southward to the I-70 corridor in northwest KS by late morning (15-18Z Tue) and that a broad, west-east elongated cyclone will develop along a pronounced thermal gradient /baroclinic zone south of I-70, over southeast CO and southwest- central KS.

Challenging temperature forecast. While the southern extent of the front continues to vary from model-to-model and run-to-run, virtually all guidance indicates that the front will progress at least as far south as the I-70 corridor. Whether or not (and if so, to what extent) the front progresses even further south may largely be a function of cloud cover / differential heating. Pervasive and persistent stratus north of the front could limit airmass modification during the afternoon, reinforcing the surface high, tightening the MSLP gradient and driving the cooler airmass further south. Low confidence in high temperatures, which could range anywhere from the 50's to the 70's, depending on cloud cover and the southern extent of the front. Virtually all guidance continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture and substantive forcing (strong low-level convergence, frontogenesis) will be confined to the eastern periphery of the cyclone, over central and eastern KS.. and simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST continue to indicate that convective development will be confined south and east of the Goodland CWA. Aside from a small (~10%) chance for a brief shower in Gove/Graham counties during the late morning, precipitation is not expected.

Wed-Wed night: Expect an increasing potential for elevated showers/storms Wed afternoon into Wed night as the deamplifying upper low progresses ENE-NE from the 4-Corners to northeast CO. Modest northerly low-level flow and pervasive cloud cover will foster well below average temperatures and an atypically small diurnal temperature range. Calendar day highs for Wed could occur at midnight and daytime temperatures could struggle to exceed the 40's and lower 50's, especially if elevated showers develop during the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 244 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Ensemble guidance is quite confident on upper-level troughing Thursday to start the four-day forecast period, placing us in strong southwest flow aloft through Friday morning. A decent jet streak is anticipated to present over our County Warning Area (CWA) on the lee side of the Rossby wave. Furthermore, a surface low southeast of the region should continue moving east across the Central Plains. The pattern likely changes over the course of the day Friday as the trough propagates eastward, bringing us into zonal westerly flow. Moving forward, weak ridging starts to develop Saturday shifting 300- 500mb flow to the northwest. Said ridge should move to the east fairly quickly Sunday, placing the Tri-State area right back in southwest flowing heading into next week. Other than Thursday (10- 25%), Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) is expected to be very low (<5%) through next weekend. There is low chance (25%) for overnight temperatures at or below freezing Friday night. Therefore, frost will be possible.

Overall, below average temperatures are likely as the system aloft ushers in cool/dry air from the northwest. High temperatures upper 50s into the low 60s will be likely Thursday and Friday. This will not last as the shift to southwesterly flow kicks off a warming trend that raises high temps into the mid/upper 60s Saturday as well as mid to upper 70s Sunday. As mentioned in the above section, low confidence (20-30%) exists of temperatures falling below freezing in some locations throughout the CWA Friday night into Saturday morning. Low temperatures in the mid 30s will also be possible Thursday night in some areas near or west of K-27.

Fire weather could be a concern late next week into the weekend, so trends regarding surface winds and relative humidity (RH) will need to be monitored. RH is forecasted to decrease into the upper teens Saturday and Sunday in the eastern Colorado counties. RH values should generally range around 20-40% during the day elsewhere in the CWA. Winds originally come on strong Thursday at 20-35 mph, gusting 30-50 mph from the north. Fridays winds likely will be quite a bit weaker at 10-20 mph, also from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Saturday and Sunday will be the days to keep a close eye on for potential fire weather. Saturday's winds will vary around the region 15-25 mph from the south and gusting 20-35 mph. To close out the weekend, Sunday's winds should be quite light (5-10 mph) shifting from the southwest to southeast and gusting up to 15 mph.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 400 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. IFR to LIFR ceilings may be present along and behind a cold front progressing south toward the I-70 corridor early Tue morning. At present, the front is anticipated to reach the Goodland terminal around, or shortly before, sunrise. The precise location/timing of the front, and extent/coverage of low ceilings behind it, varies from model-to-model and run-to-run. With this in mind, flight category forecast confidence is low during the latter portion of the 00Z TAF period. SW winds at 10-15 knots may further weaken and become variable for a period this evening-tonight, then shift to the E or NE and increase to 12-17 knots w/gusts to 20-25 knots after the frontal passage, ~09-12Z Tue morning.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings may be present along and behind a cold front progressing southward through Nebraska and northwest Kansas early Tue morning. At present, the front is anticipated to reach the McCook terminal ~06-08Z Tue. The precise location/timing of the front, and extent/coverage of low ceilings behind it, varies from model-to-model and run-to-run. With this in mind, flight category forecast confidence is low during the latter portion of the 00Z TAF period. Light and variable winds late this afternoon will shift to the E or NE this evening. E to NE winds are expected to increase to 12-17 knots w/gusts to 20-25 knots after the frontal passage, ~09-12Z Tue morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.