textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Saturday through Monday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 100s with heat index values in the mid 100s. Limit time outdoors and stay hydrated including humans and livestock.

- A Heat Advisory is also in effect for Sunday for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado as air temperatures and heat indices around 105 degrees are forecast.

- Showers and storm potential returns Monday and through most of next week. Strong to severe storms are possible Monday with damaging winds currently the main threat.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Ridging continues to amplify across the region along with a strengthening 598 dam high across western and southern portions of the forecast area. Which is actually a bit stronger than what some model guidance suggests which is interesting Today begins our well advertised multiple day heat event as most of the area is already in the 90s by 10am MT. The temperature forecast mainly remains on track with only a slight increase in air temperatures based on recent data as most if not all of the area should reach the triple digits. 30 AGL dew point forecasts continues to indicate some drier air that could be mixed down during the afternoon with dew points falling into the 40s mainly west of a Tribune to Oberlin line which which would help keep heat indices closer if not slightly below the air temperature. East of that line will most likely see heat indices values of 105-110. The dry air mixing down does seem to be a bit reasonable as winds on the northern periphery of the 598 dam high are forecast to increase some this afternoon becoming sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts around 25 mph possible. If this does come to fruition then elevated to even locally, briefly critical fire weather conditions could be realized across mainly Kit Carson and Yuma counties.

Very warm night is forecast for the area as guidance, not has been trending warmer with overnight low temperatures as winds are forecast to turn to the southwest. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast which will provide minimal relief from the heat.

Sunday, center of the high pressure sets up directly over the area. Sunday continues to have the potential for the warmest day of the period but still remain some question as to just how hot it will get. ECMWF is a little weaker on strength on the high with it being around 588-590 dam versus the RAP and NAM around 594-596. The RAP and NAM scenarios would support widespread 105+ degree temperatures and potentially as warm as 110. The ECMWF on the other hand would be more in the 100-105 range. The other change from 24 hours ago is that the surface to 30mb AGL dew points are lower. If this trend does continue then heat index values may not be quite as high originally thought. Winds are however, forecast to be weaker than today which would then lead to a bit more of a difficult time for the drier air to mix down. For the Heat Advisory, I did issue a second one for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado to hopefully avoid confusion due to the longer duration one for NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Heat index values may be a bit marginal but due to known outdoor events across Yuma county and Wet Bulb Globe temperatures approaching the extreme category opted to go ahead and issue mainly an impact based Heat Advisory; plus air temperatures will be very close to 105 degrees themselves. Similar to the tonight, minimal and perhaps even less recovery for the overnight temperatures as they are forecast to remain in the upper 60s to upper 70s and perhaps even some localized low 80s.

Rainfall confidence for Sunday has fallen some for the afternoon and the 500mb and 700mb vorticity maxima look weaker may remain to the west of the CWA. RAP and NAM both continue to indicate an increase in 700-500mb moisture developing in eastern Colorado and expanding into the Tri-State border area so am opting to bring in some 10% rain chances for this potential. Should these develop dry lightning would be the main concern which could have the potential to start fires along with values could be as low as the mid teens. Very localized wind gusts up to 50 mph could also accompany any collapsing cells. Am noticing however another lobe of vorticity moving south from Nebraska into the area during the overnight hours. This could have the potential to sustain itself some as well as the vorticity lobe is on the nose of an increasing 850mb jet.

Monday, currently appears to be another hot day for the area and the final day of our intense heat. High temperatures are again forecast to be in the triple digits with a 594 dam high over the area but 850mb temperatures are a tad lower than today or Sunday. Southerly 850mb flow is forecast to shift to the south-southeast and advect into the Front Range where a small low pressure system is forecast to develop and interact with a 700mb shortwave. Showers and storms as a result are forecast to develop off of the Palmer Divide and move to the east towards the state line during the late afternoon and into the early evening. Additional shortwaves are depicted in the NAM overnight along with an increasing low level jet which would lead to the potential for showers and storms continuing through the night. With inverted v soundings in place during the late afternoon and evening along with very steep lapse rates and DCAPE around 2000 j/kg severe wind gusts could be possible as gusts around 65 mph could be in play. Should the overnight storm threat take place some localized flooding concerns could be in play as well due to very slow storm motions with Corfidi Upshear values around 10 knots and PWATS ranging from 1.4-1.7. However soundings do show dry from the surface to around 700mb according to the 12Z NAM which does lower my confidence in any flooding concerns. Around 25% of 12Z ECMWF ensemble members does try to paint some higher rainfall totals somewhere across the CWA, so this threat will for sure need to be monitored in upcoming shifts.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Synoptically, the ridge that has been in place over the Four Corners region is still likely to stay nearly stationary over the next week. Throughout the week, Guidance does show some indication of shortwaves moving through the region.

Overall, high temperatures look to "cool" down to the mid to high 90s for the majority of the week. Winds for the week look to remain calm to breezy, with relative humidity values in the 30-60% range.

Moving to the precipation chances this week: starting with Tuesday, Guidance mainly the NAM and the RRFS shows a boundary over the southern part of the CO/KS border. With this boundary, moisture advection from the south and will move northward of over the CWA. Winds will mainly be from the east, causing upslope flow and will help influence shower/storm production. PoPs are in the 30-50% range, and the probability of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation is in the 15- 30% for areas west of KS Hwy 27. However, one thing to note is that some models do not show this boundary or show a weaker version on the boundary. Given this is roughly four days out, it will be interesting to see how Guidance will trend with the boundary and its location for precipitation chances.

Once again, Wednesday has similar precipitation chances with PoPs in the 20-50% range. Currently, Guidance looks to have another boundary in place, but there is a fair amount of disagreement on where the boundary will be located. Given we have moisture advection from the south, this will help the precipitation chances.

Looking at the rest of the week, each afternoon/evening does have around a 10-20% range for PoPs. These chances will be dependent on how Tuesday and Wednesday pan out. While a fair amount can change, there is a signal that precipitation chances do return to the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 429 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for both terminals. Winds are forecast to be from the southeast and around 10-15 kts for the evening. The nocturnal inversion will develop just after the start of this period as winds decrease around 10 kts. Forecast sounding show 25-35 kts flow around 1,000 ft AGL which suggest marginal low level wind shear possible around 0500-0900Z. The duration of low level wind shear currently short lived, due to the marginal nature and duration, am opting to not include in the TAF at this time.

Early morning the winds shift to come from the south and decrease to around 5-10 kts, and remain at that magnitude through the end of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004- 013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092. NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.