textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and dry today with highs in the 50s and northwest at 10-15 mph.

- Warm and dry late weekend through next week with fire weather concerns especially late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1005 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

The snow that was moving through the area near the Tri-State border has been dissipating as the upper trough has been splitting. Meanwhile, higher surface pressure continues to push into the area near the surface. With the high center being somewhat small, a pressure gradient should linger and keep winds around 10-15 mph through the night.

For Saturday, the split of the upper trough is forecast to have an upper low move into the Baja Peninsula while the main trough wave continues off to the east of the area. With the area on the backside and drier air in place, tomorrow should be a bit mild with temperatures warming to the upper 50s underneath mostly sunny skies. Relative humidity is forecast to drop into the mid to upper teens, but no critical fire weather conditions are expected with a broadening pressure gradient forecast to keep winds around 10 mph. There is a small chance that an enforcing wave in the trough might drop the low pressure north of the area a little south, which could allow for a few gusts around 25-35 mph for locales near the Tri- State border. Saturday night, the mild conditions for this time of year continue with temperatures lowering to near 30 underneath clear skies and with winds remaining around 10 mph.

Sunday, the upper level flow is forecast to be somewhat from the northwest, but almost zonal. With the low level flow forecast to shift to out of the southwest, temperatures should warm more into the 70s. The warmer temperatures are forecast to help relative humidity lower into the low to mid teens across most of the area. Critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely though as broad low pressure is forecast to be in place across the area and High Plains, leading to winds around 10-15 mph. Not much is forecast to change going into Sunday night aloft or at the surface. With this, winds should remain around 5 to 10 mph with lows dropping into the 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Warm temperatures in the upper 70s even possibly low 80s are forecast across the area to start the extended period on Monday. Downsloping warmth off of the Rockies is forecast to be present which is leading to the warm temperatures. A developing surface low near the Black Hills is forecast to lead to a developing 850mb jet which has the potential to increase the winds. GFS and ECMWF both differ on the strength of the jet and where exactly it lines up but elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions may develop across portions of the forecast area with humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens for humidity. Should critical fire weather develop winds at this time appear to be marginal with gusts around 25 mph. Confidence in locally critical conditions is around 30-40% with the need for a Red Flag Warning around 10%.

Tuesday, the pattern becomes a bit more active as the low mentioned above moves off to the west and sends a cold front through the CWA. Spread still remains on when this front will move through the area which will play a big role on high temperatures for the day; a quicker frontal passage would lead to high temperatures around 10-15 degrees cooler than the current forecasted highs in the 70s. Confidence in a quicker front progression is currently around 40%. A surface low developing across southwest Kansas would also support the slim chance of some showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of Interstate 70 Tuesday evening through the overnight hours. If the quicker frontal solution would occur then then this threat would lower as the front will shunt any moisture out of the area.

In wake of the cold front and through the day Wednesday breezy to gusty conditions are forecast to occur with wind gusts of 35-45 mph currently. High temperatures for the day are in question as the area remains in wake of the cold front but if high temperatures could reach the low 50s then elevated fire weather concerns especially across eastern Colorado may occur. GEFS members suggest that the cooler air mass should stick around for the majority of the day so there is some question to whether or not these conditions will occur if current high temperatures are too warm.

Late week fire weather conditions are forecast to increase even more so. Strong signal for warm and dry conditions Thursday as a surface trough moves through the area favoring warm and breezy downsloping occurring for the area. Current forecast high temperatures may be too low as this pattern typically favors the higher end of the forecast spectrum and would not be surprised if highs in the low 80s occur. Humidity values are already forecast in the mid teens and if pattern recognition is correct then humidity in the single digits would be in the realm of possibility. All guidance suggests a strengthening 700mb jet which should be easily tapped into with mixing heights ranging from around 5000'-7500' AGL. Confidence in critical fire weather conditions occurring Thursday are around 60-70% and the need for a Red Flag Warning sits around 30-35%. Warm temperatures are again forecast Friday but another cold front if it were to move through quicker could change the forecast but quite a variation with guidance remains with the timing of this front.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 400 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Spotty high clouds are forecast for a few hours before becoming clear. Current northwest winds are forecast to shift to the southwest this afternoon where they are forecast to become a little breezy around 15 knots sustained; sporadic gusts of 20 knots can't be ruled out for each terminal this afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.