textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Tuesday's forecast has wind gusts around 25-45 mph for Eastern Colorado.

- Chance for rain continue through much of the week. Highest chances look to be around Wed/Thu.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1203 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Today, a 500 mb large low over the northwestern CONUS will absorb a Four Corners low, turning it into a trough axis. As this axis pushes over the Rockies, southerly flow will increase. Similar features can be found in lower levels of the column, but none of them are overly strong. Flow up to around 500 mb looks to cap out around 25-35 kts, meaning very strong gusts are unlikely. Looking at the surface, pressure rises look to be about 1 mb an hour. This is strong enough to support sustained winds around 20-25 kts. It is worth noting, any gusts above 40 kts will have the potential for causing blowing dust, but these gusts are not likely. We could also see some scattered storms across the CWA this afternoon, but severe weather looks unlikely.

Tonight, temperatures are forecast to cool into the 50s again, kept stable by cloud cover. Lingering showers may persist throughout the night, but severe weather is not expected.

Tomorrow, the main trough axis of the northwestern low will be sweeping over the region, leading to a line of enhanced vorticity moving in from the south. We are also expecting southerly moist advection to occur. These combined are expected to produce precipitation across the CWA after 18Z, but could start as early 12Z. Severe weather is not likely with this precipitation, but we cannot rule out a rouge gust up to 60 MPH or hail up to 1 inch. This precipitation is expected to increase in coverage throughout the day, leading to a wide spread for high temperatures. In the northeastern CWA, where precipitation may not reach, highs look to be in the mid to upper 80s. The southwestern CWA, where cloud cover and precipitation are most expected, temperatures may not climb above 70.

Tomorrow night, the trough axis slowly moves over the CWA, allowing light to moderate precipitation to persist throughout the night and temperatures look to stay steady in the 50s.

Precipitation totals through 12Z Thursday look to range in the Trace to 1/3 range (10th-50th percentiles HREF and REFS). There is a 5% chance of localized flooding if multiple rounds of storms can train over the same location.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1254 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

The aforementioned trough axis gradually lifts out of the region Thursday. As a result temperatures are forecast to remain seasonable in the upper 70s to low 80s. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon/evening but the main caveat will be instability. If enough sunshine is able to break through any lingering cloud cover, there is a chance for some strong to severe storms to develop. At this time the main concern with any strong to severe storms that do develop would be large hail.

An omega block like pattern looks to develop by the end of the week into the weekend. A potent ridge will remain mostly locked into place across the central to northern plains. At the same time numerous disturbances will move through portions of the PACNW and northeastern CONUS. For our CWA, temperatures will remain seasonable through the weekend as the warmest and driest air stays well to the north. Above normal PWATs persist as southwesterly flow keeps moisture funneling into the region. This excess moisture will allow for daily chances (10-40%) for afternoon showers and thunderstorms starting Friday through much of the weekend. The end of May and start of June looks to see seasonable temperatures persist. Models do differ slightly around this time with some showing a more potent ridge build in across the central CONUS. This would bring in warmer/drier conditions to the region with temperatures feeling more like summer. Others, keep an omega block like pattern in place which would keep daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the CWA. Temperatures would likely remain around seasonable in this scenario.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1032 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the bulk of the period for KGLD and KMCK. Winds from the southeast will prevail throughout the period, in the afternoon and early evening, gusts look to be in the 25-35 kts range, although KMCK may see a slightly later start to these gusts. KGLD has a 15% chance of seeing some scattered showers and storms this afternoon, but the main chance at precipitation moves in around 18Z tomorrow from the south. MVFR ceilings and precipitation are expected to impact flight categories tomorrow afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.