textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief severe storm remains possible until ~2 AM MDT this morning, mainly in Logan, Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties. Localized wind gusts up to 60 mph are the main threat.

- A severe storm cannot be ruled out late this afternoon and evening, mainly near the Tri-State (CO-KS-NE) border ~7-11 pm MDT. Localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are the main threat.

- Warming trend heading into the weekend, with highs in the upper 90's to lower 100's on Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Upper ridge remains over the Four Corners today resulting in northwest flow over the Central Plains. CAMs show convective initiation occurring later this afternoon near the Black Hills and northern Nebraska. Environment in that area will be weakly to moderately unstable but highly sheared with up to 45 kts of 0-6 km shear. A supercell is likely to develop and move south through this evening. However, both instability and shear weaken across southwest Nebraska, throwing some doubt on how far south any supercell will manage to survive. CAMs suggest it will weaken and dissipate north of the Kansas border late this evening. Nonetheless, will maintain the messaging for the severe threat since supercells can be persistent. Confidence is low on the severe threat this far south.

On Friday, the upper ridge will flatten out a bit resulting in zonal flow across northern Colorado and the adjacent plains. Will see an embedded wave move through in the afternoon with scattered convection developing in the mountains and Front Range and moving east. The environment will be weakly unstable with deep layer shear less than 20 kts across Colorado but increasing to near 30 kts at the Kansas border. Storms will have a difficult time making into the area during the evening, with only low probabilities, less than 20%, of showers or an isolated thunderstorm. Severe storms are not anticipated.

Over the weekend, the ridge will shift east into the southern plains on Saturday and amplify into Missouri by Sunday. This will result in a southwest flow over the Central Rockies and adjacent plains. In this pattern would expect scattered afternoon convection to develop in the higher terrain to the west and move into the area at night. However, both shear and instability are weak and the probability of severe weather will be low.

Temperatures will be much above normal through the period, with mid 90s on Friday and upper 90s to lower 100s Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon relative humidity will be falling below 20% at times, but winds are expected to be light and no fire weather concerns are anticipated.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

For much of next week we don't see too much of a difference compared to this week, with nearly daily chances (at least 15%) of showers/storms. On Monday we start the week on the back side of an upper level ridge with southwest flow aloft and a 850-700 mb area of high pressure over the Four Corners region. Throughout the day, most mid to long range guidance is favoring a weak cold front pushing south across the area, which should make the environment more favorable for showers and storms during the evening to potentially overnight hours. In regards to the severe potential, so far CAPE remains a concern as a limiting factor with GFS guidance favoring less than 500 J/kg over our Colorado counties. Winds shear is still somewhat favorable with 25-30 kts of surface-3 km shear and ~30 kts of effective shear. With precipitable water values around 1 in, we could see more rain showers than storms if any activity does develop and move into the area.

Tuesday through Thursday, weak shortwaves in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will work to strengthen a near-surface trough on the lee side of the Rockies. These shortwaves may help with the rain/storm chances as we move into the middle of the week. So far guidance is favoring more isolated/pop-up style activity, but confidence in showers or storms developing is fairly low (<20%). Models, including the NBM, are leaning more towards chances tapering off during this time frame.

As the precipitation chances go down, the temperatures are expected to increase throughout next week. Monday and Tuesday we are looking at highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s, with the temperatures "coolest" west of the Colorado border. Wednesday and Thursday temperatures are expected to warm up a few degrees more with highs in the 90s and possibly reaching the triple digits east of Highway 83. Overnight lows will be mild in the 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in vicinity of either terminal ~06-08Z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Breezy (20-30 knot) easterly winds associated with outflow from a mesoscale convective system are possible at the very beginning of the TAF period. Winds will become southerly at 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots by early afternoon and persist through sunset.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.