textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will follow, this afternoon through midweek.

- Our next system looks to occur Friday, thankfully major impacts are not expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1115 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

Today looks comparatively mild as a weak ridge builds into the Great Basin, leaving us under northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures in the snowpacked area will likely top out around freezing while areas to the northwest will warm closer to 40. Winds overnight tonight look to remain westerly, which will keep temperatures warmer than they have been, but will largely be in the single digits. Wind chills are expected to -7 to 0. There's a 20% chance areas with remaining snowpack will cool an additional 5 degrees, for both air temperature and wind chills.

Tuesday, a shortwave trough looks to propogate through the northwesterly flow in the midday. However, with only some mild upper level moisture, no precipitation is likely with this wave. Temperatures will have a pretty strong gradient tomorrow. In the western CWA, temperatures will warm into the mid 40s while areas in the east/southeastern CWA, where the snowpack remains, temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 30s.

Temperatures and wind chills Tuesday night are forecast to remain in the teens in areas with no snowpack, but will cool to around 10 in the snowy area. Wind chills look to be about 5-10 degrees cooler than air temperatures, generally remaining above 0.

Wednesday, a trough over the northwestern CONUS will move farther in- land, weakening the ridge over the Great Basin as the ridge moves closer to the High Plains. The ridge is expected to remain intact to keep the sky mostly clear during the day. There's a 40% chance an 850 mb high forms over Texas Wednesday, allowing southwesterly flow in the low levels into the CWA. This will allow temperatures to warm a decent amount, with the NBM suggesting highs in the 50s across most of the area. While areas west and north of a line from Tribune to Oberlin could very well see some 50 degree temperatures, the NBM is likely failing to account for remaining snowpack southeast of the line. Any areas that still have snowpack Wednesday will likely only top out in the low 40s.

Wednesday night, the aforementioned trough from the northwestern CONUS will be coming over the Rockies and likely impacting the High Plains a bit. We can at least expect increased cloud cover overnight, allowing temperatures to remain in the mid to upper teens across most of the area. Once again, remaining snowpack will lower local temperatures to the low teens. There is a 10% chance eastern Colorado gets some light snow from this system, but most models show a dry low-level layer, preventing any precipitation.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1254 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

Wednesday continues to be forecast to be the warmest day as the upper ridge is forecast to move over the area while an embedded shortwave helps low pressure develop along the Front Range, allowing for low level southwesterly flow. Highs are forecast to reach the low 50s for most of the area underneath sunny skies. Should any snow linger for southeastern parts of the area, those locales would see highs more in the 40s.

Thursday and Friday, an upper low over the Great Lakes region is forecast to swing a trough axis through the Plains and bring a cold front through the area. This should cool temperatures with highs forecast to range from the 20s in the east (closer to the center of the cold air mas) and 40s to the west. Lows are currently forecast to be in the teens, with single digits possible if the high center shifts west as some ensemble guidance suggests. As a whole, guidance is in much better agreement with the timing and overall path of the features which is leading to higher confidence in the forecast. But still, there are some ensemble members as alluded to above that are giving us a much colder and drier air mass. If the colder solution pans out, negative wind chills could return Friday and Saturday morning.

In regards to precipitation with this system, the better agreement has also led to better agreement that the air should saturate as these systems move through. Still, we will likely be dry near the surface which would keep precipitation chances limited. We should see a prolonged period of cloud cover and even flurries due to the higher level saturation. But the lack of features when we are forecast to be most saturated suggests we won't have much lift and just have light snow at best. This is reflected in guidance QPF forecasts ranging from 0.01 to 0.2. So unless we get much colder (higher SLRs) or can get one of the systems to slow near the area and provide better lift, snow will likely remain below a few inches and have little to no impacts. Will have to keep an eye on the winds though as while the current forecast keeps winds around or below 15 mph, guidance suggesting that the surface pressure field should morph quite a bit may allow for a scenario where we briefly have a tight gradient and stronger winds. Blowing snow may then be a concern.

Going into the late weekend and early next week, we are forecast to stay in the northwest flow aloft. That being said, it is becoming more likely that we move more under the upper ridge's influence and would see warmer temperatures. The current forecast is for highs in the 50s, but we could see 60s if we don't get any shortwaves moving through until later next week. Lows are forecast to be in the 20s. For now, no precipitation is forecast during this period with dry air in place at the surface.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 921 AM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at KGLD and KMCK. Westerly winds gusting around 20-25 kts are expected today and will weaken at sunset. Around 6-9Z, both KGLD and KMCK have a 30% chance of seeing LLWS from the northwest at 35-45 kts. The height of the LLWS is what is lowering confidence that criteria will be hit. As it stands, guidance shows these winds at 600-1,000 feet AGL, which is reasonable. If this height lowers to 200-500 feet AGL, criteria will be hit and will be included in the TAFs.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.