textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of systems move through the region late this week and are expected bring rain.

- 60 MPH winds and explosive fire growth are possible next Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 202 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

This morning, our next system will slowly start impacting us. The parent 500 mb low pressure system will be off the west coast of Baja California with a northeastward extending trough axis. This axis will be what causes any precipitation before Friday midday. Conditions today will be mild as temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.

Looking at 850 mb and 300K surfaces, we have some northwesterly flow, bringing in some cooler air around 0-12Z tonight. This will work to increase RH values to around 60-80% across the northwestern CWA at 300K. The high pressure that's drawing in this air will also be drawing in some southerly air, leading to a weak frontal boundary. This has a 20% chance of scattered rain showers across the area from 0-12Z. There is a 10% chance of freezing rain in Dundy county, depending on if surface temperatures drop below freezing. This round of precipitation has a 10-15% chance of lingering through the morning Friday, but will largely gone by sunrise. Any locations that do receive rain and drop below freezing will need to be cautious for black ice.

For the main system, while the path is still on track to move over southern Oklahoma, the timing is still varied. The NAM and CMC-NH have the low pushing 850 mb moisture and 500 mb vorticity into the CWA around 18-21Z Friday. The GFS waits until around 9-12Z, with most other models having timing around 0-6Z. This will be the leading factor of when precipitation moves into the CWA.

Precipitation will be mainly focused on the southern half of the CWA, along and south of U.S. 24. South of U.S. 24, REFS is showing an 80%+ probability of greater than 0.15" of rain by Saturday morning while the NBM has a 35-45% chance of the same. Due to the wide spread of possibilities, forecaster confidence is sitting around 40%. North of U.S. 24, the probabilities from REFS and NBM drop to below 25%, rather quickly.

Some lingering precipitation is expected throughout the day Saturday, leading to slightly more QPF, but not a lot more. There are still hints of weak CAPE, which could lead to some embedded thunderstorms. Precipitation looks to be end by 0Z Sunday as a ridge builds in from Baja California.

Biggest threat from this precipitation would be overnight freezing, leading to black ice. Friday night looks to largely remain above freezing, save for eastern Colorado and maybe Dundy county, where temperatures look to drop to around 30. Otherwise, the rest of the CWA will only cool into the mid to upper 30s overnight while temperatures Friday and Saturday will warm to around 60. Friday may be 5-10 degrees cooler if we're experiencing more widespread precipitation.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 253 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Sunday, the warming trend continues for our region as we are forecast to be under a weak ridge with a trough developing off the west coast. High temperatures are forecast in the mid/high 60s with lows in the 30s. The afternoon will be windy for our Colorado counties with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the high teens/low 20s. Fire weather could be a concern Sunday if RH values drop further due to the higher temperatures and downsloping winds.

Monday warms further as we remain under a ridge with highs forecast in the upper 60s/70s. Winds are not quite as severe, but gusts up to 30 mph are still possible for our Colorado counties. Critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon as dewpoints begin trending down indicating further drying conditions for our region. RH values are forecast in the teens for the western portion of the county warning area (CWA).

Tuesday is the most concerning for critical fire weather. We are forecast to be in a strong southwesterly flow with a 250 mb jet maximum over our area. This will pummel our area with strong southwesterly/westerly winds causing dry conditions. Wind gusts from 30-40 mph for the eastern half of the CWA and gusts from 40-50+ mph are possible for the western portion. The NBM is showing 70% probability of 40+ mph wind gusts. RH values are currently forecast in the low teens and dewpoints are in the single digits. These will likely drop further in response to the warm conditions and strong winds earlier in the week. Forecast Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values range from 60-130 for western portion of the CWA, so any fires that start will have rapid growth and spread out of control. Widespread Red Flag Warnings may been needed for the area if conditions pan out.

Blowing dust is also a possibility, but southwesterly flow is vertically stacked making it less likely. Southwesterly flow is currently present at 250 mb, 500 mb and 700mb, and 0-2 km lapse rates are below 4 C/km so dust is not likely to be lofted.

We return to a more mild zonal pattern Wednesday with highs forecast in the 60s. Fire weather continues to be a concern with RH values forecast in the teens and wind gusts from 25-35 mph possible for our Colorado counties. Dewpoints remain in the single digits and could further dry out with afternoon westerly winds and in response to Tuesdays event.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1015 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface winds will be light and variable with occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.