textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to possibly severe storms are forecast to move into eastern Colorado again this evening. A wind gust or two up to 60 mph is again possible along with torrential rain with any storm. Coverage is forecast to be lesser than the previous days.

- A daily potential for late afternoon and evening storms, potentially severe, may continue through the rest of the work week. Thursday is currently the favored day for severe weather.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 123 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate large H5 ridge in place across much of the central CONUS with ridge axis running north to south across the High Plains. A weak short wave trough showing up well at H4 potential vorticity analysis, was undercutting ridge and moving into southern KS. At the surface stationary front was located roughly from the OK panhandle extending northeast into southeast KS. Moist easterly flow was observed across the Goodland area with 70 dewpoints reaching as far west as the KS/CO border.

Primary forecast concerns will center on thunderstorm potential and intensity through Friday night followed by lingering heat and humidity.

Late this afternoon/Tonight...Sfc heating should be enough to erode any remaining CINH this afternoon, although with large scale subsidence behind departing trough, position of large scale H5 ridge and lack of any persistent convergence zones keeps confidence low that any meaningful convection initiation will occur outside of eastern Colorado. Think scenario will play out very similar to yesterday with convection firing over the higher terrain gradually morphing into a more organized MCS as it moves across area overnight, with precipitation potential diminishing the further east you go. Wind shear, instability and even DCAPE noticeably lower tonight than 24 hours ago so think severe weather threat would mainly be limited to isolated microbursts in areas where LCLs are relatively high. Blended total precipitable water has changed little from 24 hours ago and based on nearby RAOBS it has increased slightly. With deep warm layer, slow expected storm motion and ample moisture heavy rain and flash flooding will be most likely hazard tonight. While heavy rain was observed in a few spots last night, coverage and expected overlap are rather low at this point so do not think a Flash Flood Watch needed at this point.

Thursday-Thursday night...Similar pattern expected Thursday as another strong short wave trough rounds the top of the ridge, driving a cold front across the region during the evening hours. Similar to today, how long overnight convection lingers on will have a strong influence on how thunderstorm and severe weather potential develops in the afternoon and evening. While front itself will not be sweeping through the region during peak heating, increased forcing for ascent ahead of it, convergence along prefrontal trough and expected destabilization should allow a few storms to form in warm sector before a more organized area of storms develops along sfc front overnight. Bulk shear increases 10-20 kts more than today and with similar instability profiles should see a least a modest increase in severe potential. At this current time would think wind and heavy rain would be highest threat. While we will likely see a surge in winds behind cold front with gusts in the 40-45 mph range, not expecting an organized dust threat given early morning timing.

Friday...A somewhat cooler day in store with breezy northerly winds in the 15 to 25 mph range gradually decreasing through the day. The biggest change will be much drier air building over the area dropping dewpoints into the low 50s or even upper 40s bringing a little relief from the high humidity recently. Do not think the strongest winds will align with drier conditions however, so concern for any fire weather threat is low. Drier air will push instability to the south and west, limiting any diurnal thunderstorm threat to eastern Colorado.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be hot, dry and windy. Saturday, we start off in a weak ridging pattern with sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 90s. Sunday, we transition into more of a zonal pattern for the remainder of the long term period. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s for the week with some areas of the county warning area (CWA) reaching the 100s on Monday. Winds begin to pick up Sunday evening for our Colorado counties with gusts around 30 mph possible. Overnight Sunday into Monday for the entire CWA with gusts from 20 to 40 mph possible. The western CWA will be on the higher end of wind gusts. Monday through Wednesday, there is around a 20% chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms from embedded shortwave passages.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1108 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated for much of the 18Z TAF period. The morning cloud cover continues to clear out over the terminals through the afternoon hours. During the late afternoon to early evening hours, another linear cluster of storms is expected to develop over Eastern Colorado and move east over the KGLD terminal around 04-08Z. Latest guidance favors KMCK terminal seeing rain showers if any storms are able to maintain themselves long enough; otherwise, KMCK will probably stay dry tonight. Should storms occur, wind gusts to 60 mph and torrential rainfall are the main concerns. Winds are expected to be light out of the southeast at 10-15 mph for both terminals outside of storms. Overnight, winds could become light and variable around 5 mph through Thursday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.