textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog may develop east of Hwy 83 early this morning, mainly in Red Willow, Decatur, Sheridan, Gove, Norton and Graham counties. Dense fog, if/where present, would dissipate a few hours after sunrise.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend and into early next week.

- Potential pattern change mid-late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1255 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

This Morning: As of 0745 UTC, fog persists over eastern portions of the area (MCK-OIN-NRN-HLC), where visibilities range from 2 to 5 miles. Current and recent runs of the HRRR continue to suggest that dense fog will develop over a limited portion of the area during the pre-dawn hours, mainly in Red Willow, Decatur, Sheridan, Gove, Norton, and Graham counties. A few slick spots cannot be ruled out on bridges and overpasses, mainly in Norton and Graham counties where temperatures are relatively colder (upper 20s). A short-fused Dense Fog Advisory may be necessary if observational data indicates rapidly deteriorating visibilities. Dense fog (if/where present) would dissipate within a few hours after sunrise (by ~15-16 UTC).

Today-Tonight: A pronounced upper level ridge over the central CONUS will foster clear skies. Any stratus/fog in eastern portions of the area will likely dissipate by late morning. Light/variable to light southerly winds will prevail across the majority of the area, except in eastern CO.. on the eastern periphery of a developing surface trough in the lee of the Rockies.. where a modest (~15-20 mph) southerly breeze may arise during the afternoon. Expect relatively uniform highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's. Low-level warm advection and southerly flow on the eastern periphery of an eastward advancing lee trough.. and a thick veil of orographically enhanced cirrus.. will foster relatively warmer overnight (Sun morning) lows ranging from ~32-40F.

Sun-Sun night: Unidirectional /westerly/ flow aloft will prevail over the region.. within an increasingly broad/flattened upper level ridge over the central CONUS. Low-level warm advection tonight into Sun morning.. and decreasing upper level cloud cover.. will foster well above average highs (~65-70F). Complicated wind forecast. While the aforementioned lee trough (at 850 mb) will progress east across Kansas/Nebraska during the day on Sun.. guidance indicates that the surface reflection of this feature (a broad surface trough) will lag behind and stall over western Kansas during the afternoon.. leaving an ill- defined MSLP gradient over the Tri-State area. With this in mind, it appears that winds will primarily be a function of downward momentum transport assoc/w vertical mixing. While ~20-30 knot NW-WNW flow will be present on the western periphery of the eastward departing 850 mb trough during the late morning and early afternoon, forecast soundings suggest that vertical mixing will be shallow in nature.. and may not favorably overlap with the breeziest low-level flow. With the above in mind, expect WSW to NW winds generally at 10-20 mph. Occasional/ sporadic NW gusts in the 25-35 mph range are possible, most likely in northeast Colorado.. where relative humidity readings will bottom-out ~15-20% during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1154 PM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

The beginning of the next week is forecast to continue the warm trend with upper level ridging forecast to continue and highs in the 50s and 60s. That being said, the pattern could break down as an upper trough moves along the US/Canada border and potentially sends some shortwaves through. Even with these waves though, temperatures would likely only be about 5-10 degrees cooler and allow us to continue to see above average temperatures. Dry conditions should also continue with dry air still forecast to be present at the surface. The main thing that could change is we may have more cloud cover if these waves moves through with mid to high level moisture.

The mid part of the week is forecast to bring a pattern shift as a larger trough takes shape over the Rockies and Plains as the week progresses. Likely, Wednesday will still have the trough far enough upstream of the area that we will continue with above average highs in the 50s/60s along with dry conditions. The thing to watch for Wednesday is if part of the trough ejects off and brings a smaller system through ahead of the main system. Likely, it would just lead to some cooler temperatures and slightly higher winds. Thursday and Friday are forecast to bring more seasonable temperatures as the trough swings through the Plains. The issue is that ensemble guidance and the NBM are showing a wide spread in possibilities with this trough, from it ejecting quickly and lifting north, to is slowing and digging south. In most cases, the area is likely just going to see some slightly stronger winds, highs in the 40s/50s, and maybe a few showers. In the worse cases, some snow and strong winds would push through the area with the surface low just south of the area around late Thursday. I'm not overly enthusiastic about any particular scenario given that there is sizable spread in the trough intensity and timing, so stuck with the seasonable conditions for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with ceilings confined at or above ~10,000 ft AGL. Light/variable winds (through early Saturday afternoon) will shift to the SSW and increasing to ~9-14 knots during the mid-late afternoon (~21Z) and persist into the evening.

MCK: IFR-LIFR conditions associated with dense fog and/or low ceilings are possible at the beginning of the 06Z TAF period (06-12Z Sat). Observational trends and recent high resolution guidance suggest that the McCook terminal may be at or near the far western extent of fog development early Saturday morning. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail, with ceilings confined at or above ~15,000 ft AGL and predominantly light/variable winds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.