textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- North winds at 25-35 mph will gust up to ~50 mph in the wake of a cold frontal passage early this morning, strongest along/east of Highway 83 ~5-9 AM CDT (10-14 UTC).

- Cooler (albeit near-average) temperatures in the wake of the front on Tuesday.

- There is a 60% or greater chance for precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

- Critical fire weather possible in eastern CO and adjacent KS- NE border counties on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 415 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Synoptic Overview: Progressive shortwave energy moving ashore central California this aft/eve will track east across the Intermountain West (tonight), 4-Corners (Wed) and Central Plains (Wed night).. then lift NE toward the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes (Thu). An associated mid-latitude cyclone will develop in the lee of the central Rockies on Wed, progress east across the Central Plains Wed night then track northeast toward the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on Thu.

Today: An inverted surface ridge assoc/w surface high pressure over Saskatchewan and Manitoba will extend southward through the Central Plains this morning, the leading edge of which will manifest as an abrupt northerly wind shift and effective cold frontal passage ~09-15 UTC, ushering a much cooler airmass (850 mb temps 3 to 6C) into the Tri-State Area. For reference, 24-hr ago (07Z Mon), 850 mb temps were 21 to 23C. Expect much cooler (albeit near average) highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's. Low- level cold advection and surface pressure rises in the immediate wake of the front will foster a period of breezy to strong (~25-35 mph G 50 mph) north winds between ~10-15 UTC, when forecast soundings via the GFS, RAP and HRRR indicate 30-40 knot northerly low-level flow will reside within a shallow mixed layer (surface to ~2,000 ft AGL). Forecast soundings indicate N to NE winds rapidly decreasing to 15-25 mph by late morning to early afternoon.. further weakening to 10-15 mph as winds veer to the ENE-E during the mid-late afternoon.

Tonight: Surface pressure falls will commence in the lee of the central Rockies early Wed morning as flow aloft backs to the SW in advance of the aforementioned shortwave energy. At the same time, the inverted surface ridge extending southward into the region will weaken as the parent high shifts well east/downstream into Ontario. Forecast soundings indicate that strengthening ESE to SSE low-level (850 mb) flow / warm advection will lead to the development of widespread stratus over most of northwest KS and southwest NE around or shortly after ~12Z Wed. While low stratus will largely be confined to KS-NE and won't develop until close to sunrise, increasing upper level cloud cover throughout the night will foster overcast skies across the entire area. Precipitation is not anticipated through sunrise. Expect lows in the mid-upper 30's to lower 40's.

Wednesday: Challenging temperature and precipitation forecast. Lee cyclogenesis will commence in earnest in this period.. as the aforementioned shortwave energy traverses the 4-Corners and progresses east across the central Rockies. Strengthening southerly flow on the southern and eastern periphery of the deepening cyclone will foster a marked warming trend over portions of the area, most prominently along/along/south of Hwy 40 where temps may rise into the 70's. On the northern and eastern periphery of the surface low, in southwest Nebraska, where E to ESE surface winds may persist throughout the day and low-level frontogenesis will maintain low ceilings/stratus, highs may struggle to exceed the lower 50's. In other words, temps will highly depend upon the precise track and orientation of the developing cyclone. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via 06Z runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that the best chance for precip will be in northeast CO, where strong low-level convergence, frontogenesis and marginal instability (~500 J/kg MUCAPE) may aid in the development of scattered convection during the late afternoon (after 21-22Z). Further east, north of the KS-NE border, where low stratus is more likely to persist throughout the day, a few elevated showers cannot be ruled-out during the afternoon. An eastward advancing dryline could facilitate the development of deep convection over portions of southwest KS during the late afternoon (e.g. near Dodge City).

Wednesday night: High-resolution guidance suggests that overall precip chances will be greatest in this period.. when a modest deformation band with embedded elevated convection may develop in northern portions of the area (CO-KS-NE border) during the evening and overnight hours. Even if said precipitation occurs in the presence of modest low-level cold advection on the western periphery of the departing cyclone, forecast soundings indicate above freezing thermal profiles / rain.

Thursday: Early morning cold advection in the wake of the departing cyclone will rapidly abate and transition to southerly return flow as a potent upper level wave (progged to move ashore the Pacific NW Wed night) progresses E-ESE across the northern Rockies, fostering the development of another pronounced lee cyclone in CO. Expect highs in the 70's. Forecast soundings indicate deep vertical mixing (up to ~10,000 ft AGL) in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border areas (west of Hwy 83), where 30-35 knot S to SW flow will be present.. and critical fire weather conditions are a distinct possibility.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 357 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A shortwave ridge at 500 mb looks to be above the forecast region Thursday afternoon, as a shortwave trough begins to make its way across the Rocky Mountains. A deep surface cyclone is favored to exist across portions of Eastern Colorado in association with this pattern. Southwesterly to southerly flow in association with the cyclone may create warm, dry conditions going into Thursday evening. LREF guidance suggests over a 50% chance for RH values to drop to 15% or lower through 7 p.m., with portions of Cheyenne County (CO) seeing over an 80% chance. Additionally, NBM guidance suggests over a 70% chance for most of Eastern Colorado to reach wind gusts above 25 mph. As such, critical fire weather may be a concern through the early evening hours Thursday.

Cooler conditions appear favored going into Friday, as both the upper-level shortwave trough and surface cyclone move eastward. High temperatures in the upper-50s to lower-70s are forecast Friday afternoon, though timing of the cold front in association with the surface cyclone is a little uncertain. NBM 75th and 25th percentile high temperatures differ by 10-20 degrees across portions of Northwest Kansas Friday afternoon, which could allow high temperatures to vary 5-10 degrees above or below the current forecast. In addition, there is a low chance for precipitation to occur behind the cold front Friday. Current guidance suggests Friday evening to be the best chance for precipitation to occur, though much of the forecast area may still be in the dry slot of the surface cyclone. Only about a 30% chance exists for precipitation to fall in Eastern Colorado Friday evening, and 15-20% for Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. Rain is currently the favored precipitation type, though forecasted lows in the mid-20s to lower- 30s could allow existing precipitation to transition into snow. Cooler conditions look to continue Saturday, as troughing overhead looks to remain in place through the afternoon hours. High temperatures are currently forecast in the upper-50s to lower-60s, with lows in the upper-20s.

Model guidance suggests that northwesterly 500-mb flow is favored overhead from Sunday morning to Tuesday morning. While high temperatures are currently forecast in the upper-60s to lower-70s all three days, it is not uncommon for high temperatures to fluctuate higher and lower due to embedded shortwaves in the upper- level flow. An embedded shortwave ridge in this flow may allow warmer conditions on Sunday and Monday, though a shortwave trough tracking through the Great Lakes Region Monday afternoon and Tuesday could introduce cooler conditions to the forecast area. This solution is supported by a visible surface wind shift to northeasterly Monday afternoon according to NBM guidance, as well as 15-20 degree differences in the NBM 75th and 25th percentile max temperatures across the CWA Tuesday. In addition, critical fire weather conditions may be in place Sunday and Monday across portions of Eastern Colorado, with RH values in the mid-teens and wind gusts 25-30 mph forecasted. Ensemble guidance suggests about a 40-50% chance for wind gusts to exceed critical fire weather criteria, and about the same chance for RH values to reach criteria. Even so, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed either day at this range is around 10%, as forecast gusts and RH values are barely meeting criteria.

By Tuesday afternoon, a split flow at 500-mb appears to be approaching the forecast area, which could induce warming and an outside chance of precipitation going into Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 445 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

GLD: MVFR-IFR ceilings are anticipated to develop around sunrise Wed morning, at/near the end of the 12Z TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with ceilings confined above ~12,000 ft AGL. N winds at 20-25 knots w/gusts to 35 knots will veer to the NNE-NE and weaken to 10-15 knots during the late morning to early afternoon (~18Z). Winds will continue to veer during the afternoon, becoming E an hour or two prior to sunset (~00Z Wed). Winds will further veer to the ESE and increase to ~14-18 knots during the late evening and persist overnight.

MCK: MVFR-IFR ceilings are anticipated to develop around sunrise Wed morning, at/near the end of the 12Z TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with ceilings confined above ~12,000 ft AGL. N winds at 20-30 knots w/gusts to 40 knots will veer to the NNE-NE and decrease to 15-20 knots by early afternoon (~18Z). Winds will further decrease to 10-15 knots and veer to the NE-ENE during the afternoon, becoming E an hour or two prior to sunset (~00Z Wed). Light (7-12 knot) E winds will gradually veer to the ESE by sunrise Wed.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.