textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week.

- Storm and shower chances return on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Upper ridge centered near the Four Corners will continue to be the dominant feature. It will be oriented northeast to southwest today, nosing across the Rockies into the adjacent plains, but flattens out a bit on Tuesday resulting in more of a zonal flow over the plains. Today, scattered convection will develop along the Front Range in the afternoon and then move northeast around the upper ridge. They are unlikely to reach the local area on that trajectory before dissipating in the early evening. Tuesday, convection will initiate once again along the Front Range, but with somewhat better coverage with an upper wave embedded in the zonal flow moving across. CAMs differ in how far east they will progress through the evening, but they will be weakening with the loss of surface heating. However, any remnant convection may pose a risk of marginally severe wind gusts given the relatively hot and deeply mixed environment. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s both days with breezy southeast winds. Afternoon relative humidity minimums may fall into the upper teens at times, mainly in Colorado, but appear to stay just above critical criteria for fire weather.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 112 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Starting the extended period on Wednesday, high pressure begins to build in over the southwestern CONUS with semi zonal flow over the region. On the northeast periphery of the high pressure guidance suggests that a shortwave will move off of the Cheyenne Ridge and potentially southeast into the CWA during the afternoon and evening. ECWMF suggests that a weak 500mb jet with northern portions of the area in the left exit region of said jet will be in place would also help with the potential for some showers and storms across the area. Based on current placements of these features think that Hitchcock down through Graham and on east would be most favored for the potential of a developing overnight MCS as the low level jet increase. Severe weather could also be possible with damaging winds looking to be the main threat as storms cluster together but a initial hail threat could also be on the table as well as storms form.

Thursday is forecast to see another threat for showers and storms as well driven by a sagging weak cold front through the afternoon hours. Guidance also suggests that a 500mb shortwave will accompany the front and there is also further upper level support as a weak 250mb jet moves across the Rockies. CAPE and shear are currently forecast to be a little better than Wednesday and further west which suggests that severe could be possible. GEFS Mean Spread still shows quite a bit of variability with the front so the current rainfall probabilities in the forecast may change some if the front which looks to be the main forcing slows down.

Friday, through the weekend and into next week there is very good agreement for a large high pressure system to develop across the western CONUS and spread over the Plains. If this were to occur then hot temperatures are forecast to be in place especially if a near 595 dam sets up over the region. This would support the potential for 100+ degree temperatures. Thankfully current dew points are forecast to be in the 40s to low 60s across the area which would help keep the heat indices close to or below the air temperature. However there is the potential for a prolonged period of hot to very hot temperatures for the area. Precipitation chances would also dwindle as well due to the subsidence of the high pressure if it is indeed centered on top of the CWA.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.