textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Northerly wind gusts up to around 70 mph continue into the evening, with the potential for blowing dust, before decreasing going through the night.

- For the rest of this week, expect dry conditions and a day- to-day warming trend culminating in near-record to record high temperatures for the month of March by the end of the week.

- Fire weather concerns are seen in East Central Colorado Tuesday through Saturday due to breezy winds with relative humidity values around 15%.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1228 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern shows an upper trough over the CWA with its axis over the eastern portion of the CWA this afternoon. A strong surface low around 992mb is also seen moving eastward across IL, which has been responsible for the inclement weather in the Great Plains and the Great Lakes areas today. Current surface observations show around a 5-8mb pressure gradient across the CWA with higher pressure to the north and lower pressure to the south. With this setup, strong to damaging northerly winds gusting up to around 70 mph continue in the CWA through 9 PM CT/8 PM MT (See the High Wind Warning in effect for more details and impacts). These high winds will allow blowing dust to continue in today as well as some possible smoke from the Cottonwood and Morrill Fires in NE to filter into the area. Those sensitive to reduced air quality should continue to take heed due to the dust and smoke potential through the rest of the day. Those traveling through the region should also use caution especially if driving on east-west roads such as I-70 as the strong crosswinds and reduced visibility due to blowing dust will continue through this evening. While the most of the CWA stays dry for the rest of the day, latest runs of the CAMs show a 10-15% during the late afternoon for a brief isolated shower in the CO portion with Yuma county seeing the higher end chances.

For tonight, forecast guidance has the upper trough continuing its journey eastward and putting the CWA underneath the its backside with a NNW upper air flow. While area winds will decrease going into the night, breezy winds gusting up to around 15 mph are expected tonight that turn a bit more northwesterly after midnight. Colder low temperatures compared those experienced last night are also forecast tonight with the recent cold front passage ranging between a few degrees on either side of the 10 degree mark. Wind chills early tomorrow morning will drop as low as -5 to 5 degrees.

On Monday, models show the CWA between the upper trough to the east and a strong high pressure ridge out to the west. At the surface, dry conditions generally will persist through the day. Temperatures look to rebound with daytime highs ranging between 40 and 50 degrees. Winds tomorrow expect to be much lighter compared to the winds seen today with gusts up to 20 mph in the forecast. The latest run of the HRRR does not show much in the way of wildfire smoke, but cannot rule out the possibility of some filtering in with area winds having a northerly component. Clouds begin to move over the area during the evening leaving cloudy skies through the night. Low temperatures in the 20s look to be on tap for Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

No changes seen in the long term forecast as a long wave ridge over the Great Basin will dominate the weather pattern for the majority of this week. Looking at probabilities for highs during the latter half of the week, the current forecast still looks to be well on track. Temperatures will warm through the week with not much seen in the way of precipitation. As for now, well above normal temperatures are in the forecast later this week with daytime highs on Friday and Saturday currently forecast between 85-90 degrees.

The main concern though this week will be fire weather with the increasing temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast. Relative humidity values will fall to around 15% across most if not all of the area for the good majority of the week. Currently Tuesday and Wednesday have the potential to be the breeziest with an increasing 850mb jet embedded within the northwest flow. Wind gusts of 30-35 mph are forecast Tuesday favoring the northwest portion of the area. With anticipated deep mixing in place would not be surprised if each afternoon localized gusts up to 25 mph would occur.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1103 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong to northerly winds continue this afternoon across the region which allows blowing dust as well as smoke from NE wildfires to reduce area visibilities down to IFR conditions. While TAF sites look to stay mostly VFR, will be monitoring conditions in case blowing dust intensity increases and amend TAFs as needed. Winds decline slightly during the late afternoon/evening hours before decreasing more and taking on a northwesterly component going through the night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong to damaging winds are forecast to continue through this afternoon and evening with northerly winds of 35-45 mph gusting up to around 70 mph. Wind direction is not expected to shift much if at all during this time. Going into the night, GDFI values drop into the single digits as winds lessen quite a bit with gusts up to around 15 mph. After midnight, winds look to take on a northwesterly component with colder area low temperatures in the upper single digits to lower teens range.

Fire weather concerns may continue through this week as well with a strong signal for well above normal temperatures especially by the end of the week. Regional ERC forecasts from NIFC show ERC's returning into the 90th percentile. At this time there is no strong signal for a windy day but with deep mixing most likely due to the warmer temperatures daily wind gusts at least in the 20-25 mph range may be possible.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092. NE...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.