textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures will persist. Highs in the 90s to low 100s are possible the next few days.

- Severe storms are again possible Thursday and Friday afternoons and evenings. Localized wind gusts up to 75 MPH, blowing dust, and hail up to 2 inches are the primary threats.

- Storms possible on Independence Day.

UPDATE

Issued at 441 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the entire CWA until 5Z. Hail up to 2 inches and 75 MPH winds leading to blowing dust are the main hazards.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Over the next couple of days, we will be sitting under southwesterly flow as a high sits over the east central CONUS and a low sits around the Great Basin region. This will allow shortwaves to ride the jet and cause disturbances in the CWA. This will lead to hot and dry conditions at the surface with chances at storms with any shortwave troughs.

Today looks similar to yesterday but with a little less mid-level forcing for the storms. We are seeing some midday virga over the eastern CWA, which may inhibit convection in this area later today. The storms tomorrow look to fire off the dryline 20-23Z. The dryline looks to be northeast/southwest oriented around the Tribune to Norcatur area. This is also the direction storms will be traveling. Due to this orientation, and storms more likely to stay along the boundary, there is an increased risk of landspouts, mainly between 22-2Z. However, winds up to 65-70 kts and hail up to 2.5+ inches look to be the main threats. The hail threat is that high with an isolated left-moving supercell, other storms will likely only produce 0.5-1.5 inch hail. Blowing dust is once again a concern with winds above 50 kts.

Tonight, we could see lingering showers and weak storms stick around until as late as 12Z. We're not expecting a lot of precipitation to come out of these storms. However, if the storms train over the same area, localized amounts up to 2 inches of rain is possible on the northeastern extent of the line of convection. Temperatures look be similar to cool into the upper 50s in the western CWA, and around 70 in the eastern CWA.

Tomorrow, we see a similar setup as today, but could be the warmest day of this stretch. Highs look to warm into the 90s, potentially hitting triple digits in the southern CWA. Heat indices look to remain under 100 degrees for the CWA. An even weaker short wave trough than what we have today has a 20% chance of sparking some scattered convection tomorrow afternoon. Threats would mainly be hail up to 1.5 inches and 65 MPH winds. If storms occur, they would fire off around 20-0Z and move east. There is a 5% chance that convection is far more widespread than scattered storms. This would increase the wind threat, but lower the potential for additional overnight convection.

We are looking at RH values dropping into the single digits Friday afternoon southwest of a line from Tribune to Flagler. Winds from the west may be gusting in the 15-23 MPH range, with occasional gusts up around 25-30 MPH. This introduces a brief critical fire weather threat. However, currently there is not enough confidence the winds will remain critical long enough to support a Red Flag Warning.

Overnight Friday, lows look to cool into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Our southwesterly flow breaks apart a bit as a low moves over the Northern Plains, extending a trough axis near the CWA. There is a 30- 40% chance this trough is close enough to the CWA to spark storms in along and north of U.S. 36. This wave of storms would likely start around 5-7Z. Hail would be the main threat, likely in the 1-2 inch range, but some analog data supports greater than 3 inch hail. There is also a concern of these storms backbuilding and producing 2+ inches of rainfall. This may lead to an early morning flash flooding threat. However, there is a 50-60% chance that the trough remains too far north to spark this convection, or that the convection Friday evening prevents the late night convection.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Independence Day's Forecast:

Starting with upper pattern, there is a upper level trough set up over the Michigan and Wisconsin with the bottom of the trough reaching down to our area. With this trough it is negatively tilted as it moves through. Some models are showing there being a jet streak over on the area in the afternoon.

The high temperatures for Saturday could reach up to high 80s to high 90s. Both Gove and Logan counties in Kansas have around a 5-10% chance of exceeding 100 degrees for the high. Moving to the wind gusts they will be in the range of 25-30 mph. There is a possibility for Severe Weather Hazards on Saturday. Currently there are two scenarios that could take place on Saturday.

Scenario One: Convection would be in the early morning and ending in the early afternoon. The likely driving factor for this would be the trough that begins to move into the area. The SFC-CAPE is forecast around 1000-2000 J/kg for the three Nebraska counties. Moving to the Bulk Shear there is around 35-55 kts. The Mid level lapse rates also are in favor of storm development. The main hazards would be hail 1"+ and Gusts 60 mph or greater.

Scenario Two: Convection would be in the afternoon to evening. Guidance is suggesting that SFC-CAPE Values would be at least 1000 J/kg for the County Warning Area (CWA). Some Guidance is suggesting there could be around 2000-4000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE within parts of the CWA. Moving to Bulk shear values, they are in the range of 30-50 kts. Looking at the Mid level lapse rates they too are in favor of storm development. The main hazards would be hail 1"+ and Gusts 60 mph or greater.

The uncertainties: Currently there is some disagreement whether or not there will be a surface low that sets up over the CO/KS/OK border that would be associated with the upper trough. Some models have it developing and moving out quickly, versus some models have it waffling its way out. Given this location the winds would be from the east and this could promote up slope flow. There is also some signs of there being a cold front with the trough that could help promote lifting. If scenario one pans out it may use most of the instability in the atmosphere and produce a cold pool, which could reduce any afternoon storm development. There is also the chance that the southern flow will remain dominate and overcome any early morning storm's cold pool. If Friday's afternoon convective potential occurs then that would reduce any early morning convection and would end up promoting scenario two.

Finally, this is three days out and as new data populates, one of the scenarios will likely become more of the favored solution to what could occur on the Fourth of July.

Sunday through Thursday:

Starting with the upper pattern, there is a ridge that begins to move in over the Dakotas and Canada. There also are two lows both sitting off of the northern west and northern east coast. With this pattern our flow for the CWA will mainly be zonal and will see some small embedded shortwave troughs throughout the week. These shortwaves will likely bring some higher precipitation chances for the area. Sunday through Thursday looks very similar with the high temperatures sitting at low to high 90s for the majority of the CWA. Looking at the RH values they remain higher than 20% each day. As for the winds they remain mainly out of the south-southeast along with breezy conditions where gusts don't exceed 30 mph. As for storm chances the SFC-CAPE Values are in the range of 1000-2000 J/kg. Moving to the SFC-500mb Shear the range of 30-45 kts. These values would promote storms potential. Given the shortwaves that move through the area along with the storm ingredients there could be the potential of storms. The NCAR AI Convective Hazards Guidance does suggest 5-15% chance of seeing severe hazards.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 441 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Winds will favor a southeasterly flow this afternoon and overnight. Gusts in the 16-28 kts range are expected, as are scattered storms this evening. Overnight, expect LLWS at 200-400 feet AGL from the south at 40-45 kts. This looks to end as a cold front starts sweeping through the region, causing winds to become northwesterly. A high will be over the region tomorrow, leading to variable winds throughout the bulk of the day.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.