textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Overnight showers and isolated storms are forecast tonight; severe weather is not expected.

- A severe storm or two is possible Monday afternoon along and south of Interstate 70. Hail around 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds around 60 mph are the primary hazards.

- Warming trend this week as Wednesday's high temperatures may get to above 100 degrees and may pose a fire weather threat.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest flow is currently in place across the region along with fairly thick mid to upper level clouds as moisture around 700-500 mb is in place from a shortwave from the Rockies. The cloud cover is forecast to slowly burn off through the afternoon. Cooler temperatures remain forecast as the area is in wake of yesterday's cold front and the lingering cloud cover through the day as high temperatures are forecast to remain in the 60s to 70s along with light winds as an inverted surface trough is in place across the area. This evening the shortwave from the Rockies is forecast to move onto the Plains along with some additional 700mb vorticity increasing through around 03Z. Showers are forecast to develop along the Palmer Divide and spread into the western portions of the CWA this evening. Storms are currently not forecast but a rogue lightning strike can't be completely ruled out due to around 50 j/kg of CAPE currently being depicted in guidance. Dew point depressions are forecast to remain around 15-20 degrees but since the better forcing is located around 700mb think this should be enough for some light rainfall to reach the surface. Most likely scenario is that most will see a few hundredths of an inch of rain with pockets of a couple tenths. Scattered showers are forecast to continue through the majority of the night as weak 300K isentropic ascent continues to remain in place.

Monday, a large low pressure system is forecast to be in place across much of the Great Lakes region, resulting in northwest flow continuing for the Tri-State area. Temperatures are forecast to warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s across the forecast area as western CONUS ridging begins to have an influence on the Plains. A surface convergence boundary/dry line is forecast to set up south of I-70 during the afternoon hours and may be the focus for some thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours as a weak shortwave traverses across the area within the northwest flow. Confidence is still a little low (10%) in if these storms will initiate and how far south of I70 they will develop, but it seems like guidance has been trending further north with this boundary over the past few runs. Some guidance also has storms developing as early as 2pm MT which not totally buying at this point due to the speed of the shortwave but think late afternoon/early evening seems the most likely. Despite not being currently outlooked should these storms develop there should be some severe threat with them with hail up to ping pong ball size. If storms can remain discrete enough and remain sustained then the potential is there for hail as large as tennis balls along and south of Highway 40 where the higher surface to equilibrium level bulk shear lies with the 15Z RAP depicting this being around 50 knots. 41 knots of 0-6 shear and 2100 j/kg of MUCAPE are currently being depicted by guidance. Lapse rates may be the lacking feature for any severe threat with around 7.0 c/km currently being depicted by guidance. Additional overnight showers and storms may be possible as well as the northern extent of Mucape boundary interacts with an advancing 250mb jet and cold front at the surface ; northeastern portions of the area are currently favored. Severe weather would be unlikely with that activity due to minimal CAPE being in place. Moisture advection is forecast to occur through the night Monday and into Tuesday morning. Fog potential may be possible along and south of Interstate 70 with dense fog potential currently appearing to be on the table due to high surface to 1km mixing ration differences. There is discrepancies with guidance on the quality of the moisture advection at this time so will leave fog out of the forecast for now.

Similar synoptic flow is forecast Tuesday across the area. The ridge across the western CONUS is forecast to continue to expand and amplify as even warmer temperatures that Tuesday are forecast to occur with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Tuesday currently looks dry across the area with drier air in place and moisture shunted down into southern Kansas. Light winds are currently forecast at the surface but a 700mb jet may be able to bring down higher wind gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoon hours with mixing heights of 8000-10000 feet currently forecast. Due to this not concerned at this time about fire weather despite the lower humidity due to the warm temperatures as winds are forecast to be marginal at best. Tuesday night a surface trough is forecast to move through the area and increase winds as the 850mb jet increases. Some pressure rises is seen as well which should be able to help mix down the winds through the nocturnal inversion.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The upper pattern for Tuesday still has the ridge off the Pacific- Northwest and over our area the flow is from the northwest. The high temperatures are currently forecast to be in the mid 80s and lower 90s range. The winds remain calm and gusts tame. As for precipitation chances, PoPs are currently showing 5-10% chance and with there being CAPE less than 500 J/kg, these would likely just be pop-up rain showers if anything were to develop.

Wednesday, still looks to have a concern for the high temperatures and fire weather. The high temperatures for the day are currently forecast to be in the high 90s to low 100s. Looking at Guidance the probability of exceeding 100 for the day is around 20-45%. The maximum temperatures that could be seen are 100-105 degrees with a 10-20% chance of exceeding 105. These high temperatures around or above 100 still would be south of I-70 and east of KS Hwy 25. The lows for Wednesday also look to be above normal with the EFI SOT showing values in the 0.6-0.7 for Yuma County. Currently the lows are forecast to be in the mid to high 60s.

The Fire Weather Concerns are present for the majority of the County Warning Area (CWA) and the main timing focus is in the morning to afternoon hours on Wednesday. Winds look to be from northwest in the morning hours then shifting around midday to be from the northeast. Sustained winds are forecast to be in the 20-30 mph range. The Gusts are forecast to be in the 30-45 mph range. One thing to note, Guidance is disagreeing on the peak gust speeds. The NBM is currently favoring the higher values with a 15-35% chance of seeing gusts exceeding 50 mph. The LREF has the gusts has a 10-20% chance of exceeding 40 mph. Moving on to the Relative Humidity (RH) values, the majority of the CWA looks to get below 15%. The lowest RH values look to be west of KS Hwy 27, and values in single digits for Cheyenne County in Colorado. Moving to GFDI, there are values 50+ for mainly Yuma and Kit Carson counties in CO. This would indicate very high fire growth. The main uncertainty would be are the ingredients/criteria for Critical Fire Weather being met at the same time. The higher gusts are more favored for Yuma and the northern parts of Kit Carson in the morning, but the RH values do not begin to decrease until the afternoon and the lowest values favor Cheyenne County in Colorado. One last thing to note, is this is about 5 days out, but there is signal for at least there being Elevated Fire Weather present and currently 30-40% that conditions will meet Red Flag Criteria at some point in the day.

One other hazard that maybe present Wednesday, is localized blowing dust. After looking at Guidance the conditions are there for plumes of blowing dust. Given the 2-2.5 C/km is higher than the threshold, any dust should get mixed up into atmosphere and could create air quality issues and visibility could get reduced down to a mile.

For the extended part of the week. The upper pattern transitions to more zonal flow with the winds coming from the west-northwest. During this period there could be some shortwave disturbances that could bring us some precipitation. Thursday through Saturday temperatures look to be in the mid 80s to high 90s. Thursday does have a cool down, as there is a cold front moving into very late Wednesday night into very early Thursday morning. This cold front should bring the highs down to the mid 80s. The winds and gusts both show some signs of there being gusts up to 30 mph but it varies day to day. As for precipation chances, Friday has the strongest signal for showers/storms. Friday's SFC-CAPE values, from Guidance, are around the 1000-1500 J/kg for the mean. The 90th percentile for both the NBM and LREF are around the 1500-2000 J/kg range. These values would be supportive of showers/storms. The NCAR AI NWP Convective Hazard Forecast does have some forecasts showing a 5-15% chance for severe hazards. Granted this is still about a week away and a fair amount can change.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1042 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are currently forecast for each terminal for this TAF period. Light and variable winds are forecast to persist at GLD before becoming more easterly during the evening. The opposite at MCK with north-northwesterly winds around 10 knots before shifting to the west for the afternoon. Watching for some light showers and spotty lighting strikes this evening and overnight for each terminal. Guidance is indicating perhaps a bit higher threat for MCK but confidence isn't quite high enough to include in the TAF at this time so will monitor for the 00Z TAF issuance for introduction.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.