textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for those along and west of a line from Culbertson, NE to Leoti, KS. Winds are forecast to gust 35-55 mph with relative humidity dropping into the low to mid teens. There may be a few gusts around 60 mph in Eastern Colorado.

- A fast moving system brings a chance for light snow Sunday night into Monday morning across the tri-state region. A trace to two inches of snow is possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 106 AM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Current observations have a broad upper trough across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, with the center of high pressure over the area at the surface. This has lowered our winds for now with speeds around 10-20 mph and gusts of 25-40 mph. However, an upper shortwave is moving south through the Plains and towards the area. As it does so, it will bring a stronger high pressure system in from the north and increase our pressure gradient. This will allow winds to increase a few hours before sunrise with speeds creeping up back towards 20-30 mph, with higher speeds favoring Eastern Colorado. This will allow wind chills to drop into the negative single digits to start the morning.

As we get into the daytime hours, the advancing short wave and pseudo cold front could allow for a few flurries and snow showers to develop during the morning hours. If they develop, they should move through quickly and produce little accumulation. There could be some brief periods of very low visibility with wind gusts forecast to be around 35-55 mph once we start mixing. It wouldn't be unreasonable for a few 60 mph gusts in Eastern Colorado if the gradient can tighten. But have opted not to issue a High Wind Warning given the low chances and sporadic nature of the 60 mph gusts. Also, winds should slowly lower through the day as the center of the high pressure moves over and as the upper trough shifts east.

That all being said, a Red Flag Warning is now in effect for counties along and west of Highway 25. The one thing we have plenty of is dry air in the wake of yesterday's system. With a drier and colder air mass moving in, dewpoints are forecast to drop into the negative teens. Even with temperatures forecast to be cooler in the 20s, relative humidity is forecast to drop into the low to mid teens. Combine this with the strong wind gusts and we should see multiple hours of critical fire weather conditions. That being said, there is still a small chance that the winds weaken early enough in the afternoon that 3 hours or more of critical conditions is not hit. This alternate scenario is mainly for the counties along Highway 25. The rest of the area to the west should have winds remain strong enough into the mid to late afternoon hours.

This evening and into tonight, we are forecast to start with another short reprieve of the winds with most of the area lowering below 10 kts as the inversion sets up. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures should drop fairly quickly into the teens. As the night goes on, another upper trough/shortwave is forecast to push through the Plains with an accompanying low pressure system and front. This should lead to winds increasing late in the night, which are forecast to mix out the inversion and cause temperatures to warm back into the 20s. Winds are forecast to reach 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunny skies are forecast as the low pressure system moves through the area. Winds are forecast to increase a bit during the day with speeds reaching 20-30 mph and gusts up to 50 mph. The stronger winds are forecast to be north of I- 70 as the surface low moves slowly south through the day. With the cold air mass pushed out of the area and some sunshine, temperatures are forecast to rebound into the 40s with maybe a few low 50s. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected at this time as the system is forecast to bring some moisture with it, increasing dewpoint into the positive teens and 20s and keeping relative humidity around or above 25%.

Sunday night, the area gets it first chance in awhile for some measurable precipitation. While high pressure is forecast to settle in at the surface, moisture is forecast to continue moving into the area as it wraps around the upper trough. With upper divergence providing upper support along with possible frontogenesis, we may be able to see snow showers develop. Should they be able to overcome the drier air near the surface, some light snow accumulations of a trace to two inches are forecast. The current positioning favors those along and south of a line from Idalia, CO to Gove, KS. This will likely shift somewhat in both possible accumulations and positioning as ensembles show some spread on the positioning and intensity of the shortwave that would drive this. Temperatures are forecast to steadily fall into the teens with the cold air advection.

Monday, the snow could linger into the morning hours, but should taper off somewhat quickly as the shortwave swings through and begins pushing east. The good news is that the winds are not forecast to be more than 15 mph while the snow is falling as the high pressure system and upper trough broaden while the main trough axis swings east. This should inhibit the threat for blowing snow and/or whiteout conditions. Otherwise, Monday is forecast to be fairly cold with highs in the 30s due to the cold air mass and cloud cover that should slowly exit the area.

Monday night, temperatures are forecast to fall to near dewpoint in the teens with winds generally 10 mph or less and mostly clear skies.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 320 AM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Overview: A deep, expansive upper level trough over the CONUS will persist through mid-late week. Long range guidance indicates that a transition to a more zonal/westerly flow pattern will follow, next weekend.

Tuesday: Guidance indicates that a broad lee trough will develop over the Northern and Central Plains on Tuesday.. as shortwave energy in Alberta/Saskatchewan digs SSE into the northern Rockies.. and that SW to W low-level flow will foster a rapid warming trend, yielding highs in the mid-upper 50's. While guidance suggests that 25-35 knot westerly flow may be present in the lower levels (~2,000 to 4,000 ft AGL) over portions of the area, forecast soundings suggest that shallow mixing (~1,000 to 2,000 ft AGL) beneath a prominent inversion/warm nose will hinder downward momentum transport, resulting in relatively weak (~10-20 mph) surface winds. Above average temperatures and dry conditions (especially in northern and western portions of the area) are supportive of critical fire weather.

Tuesday Eve-Night: Guidance indicates that shortwave energy digging SSE into the northern Rockies will rapidly progress east across the Dakotas late Tue aft-eve. Synoptic subsidence / surface pressure rises in the wake of this feature will drive an inverted surface ridge southward through the High Plains, the leading edge of which will manifest as an abrupt northerly wind shift and effective cold frontal passage ~00-03Z Wed (after sunset). A short period of breezy N winds will accompany/immediately follow the frontal passage. Guidance indicates that surface pressure rises and low-level flow will be modest in nature (i.e. far weaker than the frontal passage on the evening of Thu Jan 15). Expect overnight (Wed morning) lows in the teens.

Wed-Wed night: Expect noticeably cooler (slightly below average) temperatures and light/weakening winds as surface high pressure over the Northern Plains progresses southward over the Central Plains.. with highs in the lower 40's and overnight (Thu morning) lows in the lower-mid teens.

Thu-Sat: Long range guidance indicates a progressive and increasingly zonal/westerly flow pattern late next week into next weekend. In such a pattern (in the Tri-State Area), one would generally expect dry conditions, and.. episodic lee cyclone development may result in considerable day-to-day fluctuations in temperature and wind speed/direction.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 351 AM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast, but there is the possibility of a quick snow shower or flurry through 18Z. When these showers have moved through further to the north, visibility was lowered for about 15-45 mins and then rebounded to P6SM. The dry air has currently limited the area from seeing any of these showers. Winds are forecast to slowly strengthen this morning as a stronger area of high pressure moves in. Winds should peak around 18-20Z, and then begin to slowly lower. The winds should then lower more quickly around sunset and decrease to less than 10 kts. Similar to earlier this morning, winds are then forecast to slowly rise again to around 15-20 kts. Low level wind shear is also forecast to redevelop with winds around 45-50 kts at 300-500ft.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for KSZ001-002-013-014-027- 028-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for NEZ079-080.