textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon for a very limited portion of the area (Yuma-Dundy-Hitchcock counties), where WNW to NW winds may occasionally gust up to 30 mph.

- Dry conditions and well above average temperatures will persist through the remainder of the week. Expect a day-to-day warming trend culminating in near-record to record highs (for the month of March) on Saturday March 21.

- Strong northerly winds will accompany a cold frontal passage Sat night into Sun morning. Blowing dust is possible during the frontal passage. An abrupt transition to cooler (albeit near average) temperatures will follow, on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

A pronounced blocking high over the southwest CONUS will maintain a weak low-level flow regime (poorly-defined MSLP-850 mb height gradient) and well above average temperatures across the Tri-State Area. With little change in the synoptic pattern, expect little change in sensible weather conditions aside from a day-to-day warming trend, with highs ~80F (today), 81-85F (Thu) and 83-87F (Fri). Light winds will, fortunately, limit/mitigate critical fire weather potential. Brief, localized critical fire weather conditions assoc/w sporadic NW wind gusts ~20-25 mph cannot be ruled out Thu afternoon and late Fri afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Saturday: The final (and hottest) day of the 'heat wave', with highs in the 90's. Guidance indicates that the blocking high over the southwest CONUS will begin to weaken/flatten in this period, as shortwave energy moving ashore the Pacific Northwest (Fri night) rapidly progresses east across the northern Rockies (Sat eve) and Dakotas (Sat night). At present, guidance suggests that the aforementioned shortwave energy will be too far- removed from the Tri-State Area to significantly alter low-level height/wind fields over the region during the afternoon, i.e. light winds will continue to limit/mitigate critical fire weather potential. Locally critical fire weather assoc/w sporadic SW wind gusts ~25 mph cannot be ruled-out in far eastern portions of the area.

Saturday night and Sunday: A cold front associated with a progressive mid-latitude cyclone (accompanying shortwave energy tracking rapidly east across the Dakotas and Upper Midwest) will surge southward through the Tri-State Area Sunday morning. 12 UTC 03/18 GFS and ECMWF operational guidance indicate that the cold frontal passage will occur Sun morning and that the colder airmass advecting into the region will be characterized by 850 mb temps +4 to +8C (considerably warmer than the -5 to -10C airmass assoc/w the recent cold frontal passage on Sunday March 15). The ECMWF suggests the frontal passage will occur between midnight and sunrise (~06-12Z Sun).. the GFS a few hours later (~09-15Z Sun). Abrupt pressure rises accompanying and following the frontal passage will foster strong northerly winds during the morning and early-mid afternoon (how long into the afternoon will depend on the timing of the frontal passage). GFS forecast soundings indicate ~40 KT northerly low-level flow, suggesting sustained winds ~30-40 mph and gusts to ~50 mph (short of High Wind criteria). With highs in the 50's to lower 60's and minimum RH readings ~25-35%, critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated in the Goodland county warning area.

Monday-Wednesday: Deja vu. 12Z 03/18 operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement w/regard to the evolution of the synoptic pattern early-mid next week. Both indicate a resurrection of the southwest CONUS blocking high. Expect dry conditions and a day-to-day warming trend with highs rising from the 60's (Mon) to 70's (Tue) and 80's (Wed).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 523 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours as winds will become light and variable as sunset approaches. Winds will become westerly and increase to around 12kts by 18z tomorrow.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Daily and monthly high temperature records may be in jeopardy on Friday March 20 and Saturday March 21.

Note: Temps in Fahrenheit. * indicates a record set on multiple years (for simplicity, the most recent record is listed).

================================= Record Highs for March 20 ================================= Goodland...........90 in 1907 Hill City..........88 in 1916 Burlington.........87 in 1907 McCook.............85 in 1997*

================================= Record Highs for March 21 ================================= Hill City..........93 in 1907 McCook.............89 in 1910 Goodland...........84 in 2011* Burlington.........84 in 2011

================================= Monthly Record Highs (March) ================================= Hill City.......94 on 03-16-2015* McCook..........93 on 03-16-2015* Burlington......93 on 03-19-1921 Goodland........90 on 03-20-1907*

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252. NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079-080.