textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Another chance for storms this evening and Monday afternoon. 1 inch hail and 65 MPH winds are the primary threats. There is a low chance that a supercell may form and produce hail around 2 inches and/or a wind gust up to 75 mph.

- Better chance for severe weather on Tuesday, with all hazards possible.

- Above normal temperatures through at least mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Thru Tuesday, there is not much change to the overall pattern. An upper ridge remains forecast to be anchored over the southwest and Southern Plains, with upper troughing over the Eastern U.S. This is generally going to keep the area under northwest flow aloft. The only change in the upper pattern is that another trough is forecast to move around the ridge the next few days. This will help supply some chances for storms, especially on Tuesday. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to move into the area today, then slowly push a bit to the southeast of the area Monday and Tuesday. This is leading to breezy winds for today with winds from the south at 15-20 mph with gusts in the 25-40 mph range. Winds should be lighter the next few days around 10-15 mph as the low is forecast to broaden out a bit. For temperatures, highs are forecast to be in the 90s each day with mid to upper 90s possible tomorrow when the upper ridge is most amplified over the area. Lows should generally be in the 60s, with maybe a few 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.

In regards to storms, the overall progression and timing will be similar through Tuesday. Storms are forecast to develop west of the area during the afternoon and late afternoon hours each day. The storms would then likely enter the area around 5-8pm MT and try and push east through the area. The main peak in storm intensity would generally be between 5-10pm MT, with severe weather possible mainly in the form of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity could persist through the night each day, but would mostly likely end by 1-4am CT.

The storms this evening are forecast to be on the marginal side with an environment that is capped, has effective shear around 20-30 kts, and 1500-2500 J/kg. While supportive of storm activity, most storms will likely pulse up and down with not much to show for it. Still, they may be able to produce 1 inch hail and a few wind gusts around 60 mph. There is, about a 15% chance that supercell is able to form, especially if the environment modifies to have the higher end of the shear and instability values. In this case, be alert for large hail potentially reaching around 2 inches and wind gusts around 70-80 mph. The severe threat looks to largely be confined to counties along the Colorado border, with increasingly stable air to the east and the upstream upper trough lifting more to the north and weakening its influence in the area as the evening goes on.

Tomorrow, the shear is forecast to remain around 20-30 kts while the instability and lapse rates are forecast to be a bit lower compared to today. The lesser instability is from the forecast calling for dewpoints to drop into the 50s and low 60s across most of the area. If this happens along the with upper trough sliding along the Northern Plains, the storms would probably move into the area a few hours later (likely closer to 7-9pm MT). They would also be less likely to be severe, though one or two could still produce wind gusts around 60 mph and maybe some hail close to an inch in size. The main concern for this would be if a cluster develops in Western Nebraska and pushes south into the area.

Tuesday, dewpoints are forecast to recover with most of the area in the 60s. With instability forecast to be closer to 3000 J/kg, 0-6km shear around 40 kts,and the upper trough moving through the Plains in the northwest flow, Tuesday may have the most support for storm development and strength. The main question seems to be how quickly storms cluster and do they form in the area. If the storms form in the area and/or stay isolated, the risk for large hail above 2 inches increases. Otherwise, the threat for wind gusts around 70 mph would be greater. Strong winds and large hail would be possible either way, but it will be hard for either hazard to reach its full potential without storms being in a certain mode. Another sneaky hazard is the potential for a tornado or two. While the environment isn't very supportive of tornadoes, supercells may be able to briefly produce one. The bigger tornado concern is if a line forms like some guidance is suggesting and sweeps through the area from northwest to southeast. With 0-3km shear vectors forecast to be from the south/southeast at 15-25 mph, a QLCS tornado or two may occur. There is a foil for this in that storms that develop ahead of the main clusters and lines may cause them to become disorganized and fall apart. With this, currently keeping the threat for tornadoes on the lower side, with the greater concern and emphasis on wind and hail.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances.

High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Saturday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period.

Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chances then begins to taper off to 5-25% for Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds near the surface are forecast to remain from the south for the first few hours with speeds around 15 kts and some gusts around 20-30 kts. Around 21-23Z, winds should lighten closer to 10 kts with the direction beginning to shift after 03Z. There is a chance that storms move near the KGLD terminal from the west after 04Z. While likely to be sub-severe, a storm or two may be able to produce large hail and a wind gust around 50-60 kts. The storms threat should end by 07Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.