textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions continue.

- Warm temperatures return for one day only! Record highs possible Thursday.

- Breezy conditions expected Thursday afternoon, mainly in near the Tri-State border.

- Fog and freezing fog possible Friday/Saturday morning, but confidence is low to moderate.

- Mild temperatures in the 50s to 60s return next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 111 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Today, an 850 mb high pressure system is moving across the southern CONUS. This is extending a ridge over the CWA, leading to weaker winds throughout most of the day Wednesday. This has also helped clear out the sky, allowing temperatures to warm to around 50. Around 21-00Z this evening, the first impacts of our next shortwave trough will start pushing into the western CWA. Surface pressure rises look to be around 0.5-1 mb per hour, leading to winds briefly picking up. We could see a few gusts around 25-30 kts in eastern Colorado before the sunsets. Like most days, once the sun sets, the nocturnal inversion will set in and winds will weaken quickly.

This evening into the night, the bulk of our next shortwave trough will push the ridge out of the area to the east. Moisture is lacking, so PoPs are effectively 0. Temperatures are forecast to cool into the mid 30s tonight. However, if the winds remain stronger throughout the night, the boundary layer will remain mixed and lows will only cool into the upper 30s to near 40.

Thursday morning, another weak ridge will briefly move in from the southwest and soon be replaced with zonal flow from the Rockies. Mild WAA, clearing skies, and downsloping flow will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday. We are looking at some record high temperatures. For more information, see the climate section below. These temperatures and no additional moisture will push minimum RH values down to near 20% in eastern Colorado. Winds are a bit of a concern, mainly in Yuma county. With such warm temperatures expected, winds are forecast to mix very well, allowing northwesterly gusts of ~30 kts to mix down. There is a 40-50% chance gusts around 40-45 kts will occur in northern Yuma county. With the ~30 kts gusts, there's a 15% chance of blowing dust reducing visibility under a mile. If the stronger winds pan out, the potential for blowing dust increases to around 75%. Main timing for the winds and any associated impacts will be 18-23Z.

Sunset will once again bring in an inversion, which will weaken the winds quickly. Temperatures overnight will cool to around 30 across the area, with the northwestern CWA being the coolest, near 28 degrees. By Friday morning, there is a 15-25% chance of patchy fog/freezing fog in the northeastern CWA. We're expecting a high pressure system to move in from the west and bring in cooler temperatures. If the high takes a slightly northern path, more northeasterly flow will occur. This will lead to stronger cooling and likely saturating, leading to fog. If the high takes a slightly southern path, more northern flow will occur and fog will likely not form.

During the day Friday, the high will move across the CWA. This will once again help the sky remain mostly clear and allow temperatures to warm into the 40s and low 50s. Depending on how quickly the high moves over the CWA, temperatures could flex about 5 degrees either way. A slower high would keep temperatures cooler as the CAA would persist longer into the day. A faster high could bring in slightly warmer southerly flow during the midday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1153 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Friday night and into Saturday morning, the area is forecast to be under northwest flow aloft with winds from the southeast near the surface. This is forecast to keep some low level moisture over the area. With temperatures forecast to lower into the 20s and 30s due to the cold air mass in place, freezing fog and drizzle remains a concern. The saving grace is that low pressure is forecast to develop along the Front Range and may shift winds to be more south/southwesterly and keep the moisture out of the area. So we have nothing in the forecast for now, but do be cautious if you are traveling late Friday and into early Saturday.

For the rest of the weekend, an upper trough is forecast to dig into the Plains and the Ohio River Valley. The ensemble means and deterministic guidance favors the trough moving more into the Eastern Plains, which would bring the cooler air mass through the far eastern portions of the area. This could cause these areas to see highs in the 30s, while the rest of the area to the west is in the 40s and 50s. However, ensemble spreads still show the possibility of a the trough digging further west and south. In this case, the entire area would see highs in the 30s and maybe low 40s. Precipitation chances are low due to an overall lack of saturation. However, fog and drizzle chances could linger if the surface low along the Front Range persists and keeps the southeasterly flow. Lows are forecast to be in the teens and 20s.

Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be a bit warmer as upper ridging or split flow are forecast for the area. Within that, some small waves may allow for some weak fronts to move through and increase winds a bit. Gusts around 20-30 mph are possible, but nothing hazardous at this time. Will need to watch for some briefly critical fire weather conditions as drier air is forecast to take hold of the area along with warmer temperatures in the 50s and 60s. A few 70s may be possible on Tuesday depending on how the smaller disturbances move through. With the drier air, precipitation is unlikely.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1017 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds for KGLD will briefly pick up around 22-00Z this afternoon, but are expected to be isolated gusts. Overnight tonight, after the inversion sets up, LLWS will be possible from the northwest at 30-50 kts around 500-1,000 feet AGL. Confidence in LLWS criteria being met is about 20%.

Tomorrow, around the end of the TAF period, winds from the northwest will rapidly speed up and gusts above 20 kts are expected tomorrow afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 115 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Thursday, we will be getting close to setting some high temperature records across the area.

Location Old Record Year Forecast High Hill City, KS 72 1939 70 McCook, NE 66 2004 67 Burlington, CO 70 2004 69 Goodland, KS 77 1939 70

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.