textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy and mostly dry conditions continue into tomorrow afternoon, with gusts as high as 40-45 mph possible for portions of the eastern Colorado Counties tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours.

- Chances of rain become widespread late tomorrow night, increasing to as much as a medium to likely (60-90%) chance by Tuesday afternoon.

- Heavy rain is expected by Tuesday afternoon, especially along/south I-70 and along/east US-83, where 1.5 to 2.0 inches, or more, are expected by Wednesday morning.

- A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of isolated flash flooding is possible across the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 326 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Aside from a low (10-15%) chance of a few spotty and brief showers tonight into tomorrow morning, a ridge axis passing over aloft maintains dry conditions. Meanwhile, a pressure gradient begins to tighten across the region, most pronounced over the western CWA, as a series of upstream mid-level shortwave troughs behind the ridge move northeastward and lower heights across the western US and Rockies in advance of a digging and developing cut-off mid/upper-level low and trough arriving over California. This should transition southeasterly winds to southerly and increase along/west Highway 27 (eastern Colorado counties) throughout tonight, possibly peaking as high as 20-30 mph, with gusts of 40-45 mph, by late tomorrow morning. Lighter upslope (southeasterly) winds further east are expected to result in patchy to areas of fog late tonight into tomorrow morning, with localized dense fog possible, where visibility could drop to half a mile or less (15-30% probability) before scattering out as the morning progresses.

By the later afternoon and early evening hours tomorrow, heights begin to lower as the initial shortwave arrives over the region, thus loosening the pressure gradient and weakening southerly winds throughout tomorrow night. Meanwhile, models are beginning to converge on an initial push of scattered to numerous light to moderate stratiform rain arriving sometime tomorrow evening, building chances of rain from west-to-east and becoming a widespread medium to likely (50-80%) chance by Tuesday morning. As the shortwave passes to the northeast, deeper moisture, streaming off and northeastward from what is currently Hurricane Polo nearing the Baja Peninsula, begins to pool ahead of and along a lee surface low pressure system and attendant cold front, expected to gradually shift winds to northerly from west- to-east on Tuesday as the low moves across the CWA while also increasing chances of rain further to a medium to likely (60-90% +) chance Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Cloud cover and a shift in winds to northerly is likely to drop highs in the mid/upper 70s tomorrow to the upper 60s and low 70s on Tuesday while overnight lows in the 50s and 60s persist.

Additionally, as bulk shear and instability begin to increase slightly throughout the later half of Tuesday, in association with the secondary shortwave aloft, heavier showers and non-severe thunderstorms along/ahead of the cold front become more likely, especially along/south I-70 and along along/east of US-83, where the higher chances of rain reside; by Wednesday morning, we expect for total rainfall amounts across this area to generally range around 1.5 to near 2.0 inches, though NBM still suggests a 40-70% probability of totals exceeding 2.0 inches, perhaps even more in areas where heavy rain and thunderstorms develop and/or train. Areas further north and west should see lesser amounts, around 0.5 to 1.5 inches, though more persistent heavy rain could result in higher amounts as well, with the NBM also indicating a 20-50% probability of amounts greater than 1.5 inches by Wednesday morning. Due to the well-above normal moisture content (1.3-1.8 in. PWAT by Tuesday evening), all of the region is included within a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of isolated flash flooding from excessive and heavy rainfall Tuesday through Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 310 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A variety of weather is in store for the Tri-State area through Sunday. The long term period will start off wet and windy until sunny skies return Friday morning. Temperatures will be consistent with high temperatures forecast in the 60s to 70s Wednesday through Sunday.

Wednesday morning, our region is forecast to remain in a mostly southwest upper-level flow with a jet streak overhead. This jet streak is expected to remain over the region through Thursday creating windy afternoons. Gusts from 30 to 45 mph are possible for the area, with our Colorado counties being on the higher end. There is also a cut off low in southwest CONUS that is forecast to traverse east that will eventually take us out of our rainy pattern. Models are showing anywhere from 1-3 inches of rain Wednesday through Thursday evening with a band of localized heavier rainfall setting up somewhere in the county warning area (CWA). The speed and track of the upper-level cut off low and where a surface low sets up in western Kansas will ultimately determine precipitation amounts. Severe weather is not anticipated due to lack of instabilty in the environment. Lapse rates are shallow, shear is weak and CAPE is lacking. Wednesday evening would be our best chance for weak thunderstorms based on GFS ensembles showing <10% chance of CAPE values greater than 500 J/kg. Low confidence (<10%) that any weak thunderstorms are able to form. Models are in a bit of disagreement on how quickly this low will move on, but rainy conditions for the CWA are forecast to end sometime Thursday evening.

Friday, sunny skies return to the CWA as we enter a weak northwesterly to zonal upper-level pattern. Precipitation is not expected as Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are less than 5% for the Tri- State area. A weak jet streak may set up over the area Friday and remain through the weekend. This could cause some windy conditions for our Colorado counties with afternoon gusts around 30 mph possible. Fire weather is not a concern at this time due to steady precipitation expected through the week and relative humidity (RH) values generally forecast over 30%.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 413 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

GLD: Gentle to moderate SE winds around 11-15 knots persist overnight, becoming SSE by tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, MVFR ceilings develop by late tonight, dropping to IFR during the pre-dawn and sunrise hours tomorrow, when patchy fog and mist are possible. SSE winds enhance to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots by mid-to-late morning tomorrow, improving ceilings back to MVFR, which may continue into the afternoon hours ahead of some unsettled weather approaching beyond the 00Z TAF package.

MCK: MVFR ceilings are anticipated to develop during the early to late night hours tonight, steadily lowering to IFR, perhaps briefly LIFR, by the pre-dawn hours as patchy to areas of fog develop, which could reduce visibility to near 3SM or lower. Winds become SE by mid-morning tomorrow, increasing to around 10-15 knots, with gusts to 10-25 knots, helping to mix out fog by the late morning hours and improve ceilings to MVFR.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.