textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A High Wind Watch has been issued for Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties from 6am-6pm CT Tuesday as wind gusts around 60 mph are possible. There is the potential winds could be stronger. Elsewhere wind gusts of 40-50 mph are forecast in wake of a cold front Tuesday morning.

- Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving.

- An Arctic cold front will bring colder temperatures and the potential for snow to the region this weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1218 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Light showers and/or drizzle continue through the day before ending west to east starting during the mid to late morning hours as small amount omega remains in the low levels as as a low pressure system continues to move to the east away from the area. Patches of fog do continue to remain possible especially closer to the lingering showers but any dense fog potential has ended. A gradual clearing trend is forecast to occur from west to east starting this afternoon and continuing through the evening hours. There is however some signal in some forcing around 700-500mb along with some increase in moisture in that range that may form some clouds and perhaps some sprinkles across the area.

Monday night and into Tuesday a cold front is forecast to move through the area leading to an increase in winds with sustained winds of 20-25 mph starting around 2am MT with gusts of 30-35 mph through the morning until the nocturnal inversion wanes. Tuesday is forecast to see breezy to strong winds through the day with around 4- 5 mb pressure rises over 3 hours and continues cold air advection continuing to mix winds down in the 850-700mb level. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph are possible starting around 9am CT and continuing through the mid afternoon. The greatest concern for wind gusts around 60 mph is across southwest Nebraska as the 850mb wind field is forecast to increase to around 50-55 knots. I have opted to issue a High Wind Watch for Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties as the GEFS mean spread does continue to indicate the potential for a even deeper trough and a few members as deep as into Phillips county in Colorado and Chase county in Nebraska which would increase the potential for wind gusts up to 65mph. I initially was not going to go the watch route but did note a slight southward trend in the GEFS spaghetti models for the 552 height contours from the 06Z-12Z run; that does raise some suspicion that the deeper solutions may be correct. The recent 12Z deterministic run of the GFS does have 50-53 knots in towards the top of the mixing level in Red Willow county and the placement of the 552 height in that is very similar to the mean seen in the GEFS. With all of that said confidence in at least 60 mph wind gusts is around 45-50% at this time with the higher end of the confidence currently focused across Hitchcock and Red Willow counties. Elsewhere across the area wind gusts of 40-55 mph are forecast with the greater potential for 50+ mph gusts closer to the High Wind Watch area. Plumes of dust may be possible originating from just north of the CWA where NASASPORT data shows 0-10cm soil moisture around 15-20%. Mixing heights are forecast to be around 4500-5000 feet along with 2-2.5km Lapse rates around 5-5.5 C/KM. 0- 2km Lapse rates are forecast to be around 8.5-9.0 C/KM which is a little marginal for dust plumes to form. Will refrain from introducing dust into the forecast at this time due to marginal nature of the lapse rates and lower confidence in if even the stronger winds will form in the first place.

Temperatures are forecast in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area which with the wind should result in a chillier day. 850mb temperatures are forecast to be around -1 to +1 degrees which with mainly full sun should help temperatures warm into the current forecasted range. Cold air advection is forecast to continue through the evening as well along with drier air advecting in resulting in overnight low temperatures falling into the teens. A gradual shifting of the winds to the west is anticipated to keep temperatures from falling further into the upper single digits to low teens. However if the winds are delayed in turning or go calm then some localized spots may fall further than forecasted.

Wednesday, northwest flow is forecast to re-enforece itself across the area. High temperatures for the day are forecast to be in the low 40s to upper 40s with the coolest across the east in response to being in closer proximity to the cold front. Have been noticing guidance has been picking up on a weak wave within the flow originating from the Cheyenne Ridge and increasing 850-700mb moisture. At this time thinking virga is moist to occur due to drier air at the surface but some rogue sprinkles or even flurries are possible.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Starting the extended period for Thanksgiving is currently forecast to be more tranquil with high temperature in the mid 40s in the low 50s across the area with shifting winds to the southeast. Some moisture advection may occur as this happens so will need to keep a close eye on fog or stratus, especially fog for holiday travel. Some guidance still continues to indicate a shortwave interacting with a developing surface low on Friday into Saturday which may yield some light precipitation chances for the area.

The pattern then does become more active as a cold front, perhaps strong cold front, remains forecast to move into the area from the north Saturday bringing some additional precipitation chances and perhaps some breezy winds with it as well. Confidence is continuing to grow in precipitation potential for the latter part of the weekend and into the start of the new work week. However there is still the potential that the system will dig to deep and the area gets dry slotted keeping any precipitation and potential impacts at bay. The timing of the front will be dependent on if we see rain initially or if the precipitation will be all snow. Confidence does still remain high There does still continue to remain a ton of spread on specifics with this so continue to stay up to date with the latest forecast. At this time it appears to if any impacts were to occur it would favor the Sunday through Tuesday time frame.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 408 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. A frontal passage will occur at both terminals overnight, with gusty northwest surface winds through Tuesday afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for NEZ079>081.