textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning for portions of the area today. Even if not in the warning strong winds are forecast.

- Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions on Tuesday. Red Flag and Particular Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warnings are in effect. Very dry conditions and winds gusting over 60 mph will create conditions favorable for explosive fire growth.

- Blowing dust will likely reduce air quality in eastern Colorado and adjacent areas on Tuesday. Low visibility due to dust plumes may also hinder travel.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 239 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Our well advertised system is starting to take shape as winds are shifting to southwest. Cloud cover associated with some moisture advection with the system is ongoing across the eastern half of the CWA. These two factors are helping keep temperatures fairly mild for mid February standards across the area with temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

A multi hazard event with dangerous fire weather, strong to damaging winds and blowing dust still remains on the table for today; there are however a few fail points that are presenting themselves with any potential high impact event. Very warm temperatures with near record highs forecast in the mid 60s to low 80s are forecast. There is potential for temperatures to be warmer still than forecast due to the southwesterly winds being in the favored "furnace" direction of 210-240 degrees. Some of the higher end forecast guidance suggests upper 80s to low 90s would be the realm of possibility especially for eastern counties.

A potential fail point to the event is if southwest winds turn from the "furnace" directions quicker to the west which would lead to a little cooler temperatures than forecast. If this occurs (30% chance) then humidity would be delayed a few hours to fall below 15% which would cut down on the number of hours of technical critical conditions (15% RH). Winds will still be there however. Winds will be where another potential fail point could be. There still continues to be some signal of the system broadening out some which would lead to a shorter duration of the strongest winds (35% chance of occurrence). This would still lead strong to damaging winds during the late morning but the duration would be much shorter. Still even with these other scenarios confidence in the current forecast still remains high.

So what are we expecting?

Perhaps the most concerning of today's is fire weather. With the warm temperatures and winds talked about above one should be able to assume that critical fire weather is a concern. The ceiling for this event is extremely high to even perhaps historic for a spring set up let alone mid February standards. A combination of near record to record highs, low dew points falling into the single digits during the afternoon RH falling at least into the low teens and damaging wind gusts sets the area up for a high end fire weather day and volatile environment for fire spread. The Red Flag Warning for the area still looks solid for multiple hours.

A portion of the Red Flag Warning however has a much higher ceiling for the fire weather risk. This is where a Particular Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning remains in place. This area is where a combination where confidence is highest in the strongest winds (sustained 30-40 mph, locally higher and gusts up to 65 mph), lowest humidity and driest fuels reside. Winds across the northern portions of the PDS area may not be as strong as further south as the stronger jet maxes in the 850 and 700mb levels lie. The reasoning for this area to be included is due to drought creeping back in and ERC's approaching the 90th percentile. Kansas mesonet data also shows nearly 3-4 months without 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain and nearly 3 months without 1/4 of an inch of rain. Southern portions of the PDS warning, yes we did see rain 72-96 hours ago but there was a long stretch with very little moisture. With all of the precipitation from the spring and summer led to an abundant amount of fuels which are now dormant leading to fuel load concerns. Anyways, the concern is there for numerous hours of critical to extremely critical conditions which will lead to the potential for large and rapidly moving wildfires today. When a cold front moves through this afternoon shifting winds to the west, much drier air will move into the area this is when dew points and humidity values are forecast to plummet possibly into the single digits. Another new aspect which currently has low confidence in is there is a less than 5% chance for high based virga which could have some downburst potential. This looks to form on the leading edge of the front favoring Rawlins, Decatur, Norton counties. Some guidance does indicate small amounts of CAPE so a rogue lightning strike can't be ruled out. The biggest concern would be for downburst winds over a fire which would add an extra complicating layer to today's forecast. Now to the wind. I did opt not to upgrade Cheyenne and Rawlins county to a High Wind Warning as confidence is not there in gusts to 58 mph or higher. This is mainly due to proximity of the strongest jets remain across southern portions of the area and the highest pressure rises remaining along and south of the Interstate during the afternoon surge. There could be a rogue gust somewhere across each county but even with the most aggressive and deepest mixing guidance it was only showing around 45 knots within the mixing layer for those counties. Current wind gust expectations is around 65 mph. GFS, RRFS and HRRR soundings across Sherman and Kit Carson counties do show 60-65 knot gusts just above the mixing layer which could mix down leading to some localized gusts around 70-75 mph but confidence in this remains only around 20% as even the HREF max wind output isn't that aggressive. The winds throughout the 850-700mb layer is fairly impressive with a large area of 30-40 knot winds in the wind field. Consistently high sustained winds of 30-45 mph even locally higher are possible and some sites may even be able to reach High Wind Warning criteria on sustained winds alone.

Timing of the winds, the strongest is currently forecast to occur starting around 9am MT into the early afternoon when the 850mb jet is forecast to be its strongest. Sustained winds of 40-50 mph forecast. This jet is forecast to weaken some into the afternoon but when mixing really deepens more sporadic gusts of 60-65 mph may occur. A cold front is forecast to move west to east across the area during the afternoon shifting winds to the west, 06Z HRRR and 03Z RAP continues to show 3 hour pressure rises to around 6 mb which which is increasing my confidence that the 2nd surge of strong to damaging winds will occur. The favored areas for this looks to be along and south of I-70. Additional wind gusts up to 65 mph would be possible during this time.

Next potential hazard is dust. This hazard has been the most difficult to nail down confidence with. Plumes of blowing dust due to the southwest winds are forecast and look most likely during the late morning through the mid afternoon due to the initial surge of wind. This is also before mixing heights deepen to around 10000' AGL. Due to this have added in a corridor of higher probabilities for dust favoring Kit Carson, Sherman, Wallace, Thomas, Logan, Greeley and Wichita counties. If this initial surge of wind can be strong enough can't rule out a wall of dust occurring but confidence is around 5-10% at this time in that as pressure rise are not quite as strong despite the stronger low level wind field in place. Mixing heights as mentioned are forecast to quickly deepen which should help mix out any dust into the atmosphere helping improve any surface visibilities but also degrading air quality due to a haze in the air. The most difficult part of the dust forecast is with our 2nd surge of wind associated with the cold front this afternoon.

Continue to notice on the 2-2.5km lapse rates on now on multiple guidance an area of lower 2-2.5km lapse rates moving along with the front which could be an indicator of a wall of dust. I do recall from last March's dust event seeing similar signals so there is some potential for quick but short lasting or even transient walls of dust with this front. If this were to occur this may be even more dangerous than a longer lived wall of dust which can be seen coming for miles. Confidence in this remains around 20% of occurrence mainly due to the high forecasted mixing heights. If mixing heights could lower some then my concern in this scenario would increase significantly. If this were to occur it would favor a roughly Wild Horse to Goodland from around 20-23Z time frame of occurrence. As mentioned above as well if any downdrafts from virga can occur then that could lead to more opportunities for walls of dust to form but confidence in that is less than 5%.

Tuesday night and into Wednesday colder air is forecast to move into the area as low temperatures are forecast to fall below freezing for the majority of the area. Lower dew points will be in place as well limiting overall humidity recovery.

Wednesday another surface low is forecast to develop across eastern Colorado and deepen. To the south of the low southwesterly winds are forecast to continue and gust to around 45 mph. In the center and to the north of the low winds are forecast to be lighter. Critical fire weather conditions are again forecast to develop for south and southwestern portions of the area. Am opting to hold off on issuing any fire weather highlights at this time to ensure the focus doesn't get taken away from today due to the overall higher end nature of the fire threat for that day. The area of concern is currently across Cheyenne (CO), Wallace, Kit Carson, Greeley and Wichita counties. Some precipitation may occur Wednesday evening and into the start of the extended period due to additional lift with the low and another incoming cold front currently favoring northern and northwestern portions of the area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 257 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Synoptic Overview: Broad cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the CONUS mid-week (Wed-Thu), with the main belt of mid- latitude westerlies.. a 100-150 knot W to WSW upper level jet.. residing at lower latitudes (~30-40N). Compared to 24-hr ago, recent (00Z 02/17) operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement on the evolution of the synoptic pattern late this week into next weekend.. with both models indicating a transition to a more amplified pattern.

Thu-Thu night: Breezy N winds and light snow possible, mainly north of Hwy 36. Guidance indicates that a developing lee cyclone in northeast CO (Wed night) will progress east across the Central Plains Thu morning.. and that low-level cold advection /northerly flow/ on the W and NW periphery of the departing cyclone will bring decidedly cooler temperatures to the area, yielding near-average to below-average highs in the 40's. 00Z 02/17 operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF suggest that precipitation assoc/w this system will largely (if not entirely) be confined north of the NWS Goodland county warning area.

Fri-Fri night: 00Z 02/17 operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF both suggest that shortwave energy in vicinity of the 4-Corners Fri morning will progress east across the Rockies (Fri afternoon) and Central/Southern Plains (Fri night).. and that an accompanying low pressure system tracking eastward across the TX Panhandle and OK may bring snow to portions of the Tri-State Area. Model-to-model and run-to-run variations in the evolution of the upper wave and associated surface low lend considerable uncertainty to sensible weather conditions, especially w/regard to precipitation chances/amounts. Low confidence in forecast specifics.

Sat-Mon: 00Z 02/17 operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF both indicate that an amplifying upper level ridge over the Intermountain West (Sat) will shift eastward over the Rockies and High Plains (Sun-Mon). Expect dry conditions and a warming trend by the end of the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1012 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. May see some minor visibility reductions at KGLD through this afternoon due to blowing dust. Winds will diminish at both locations tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 239 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Main focus continues to be on a potentially dangerous fire weather day for the area today. Portions of the area has been designated a Particular Dangerous Situation (PDS) wording for their Red Flag Warning product. This is where confidence is highest at least in some overlap of strong to damaging winds, very low humidity and the driest of fuels.

Winds are forecast to become southwesterly overnight Monday leading to drier air advecting in and an increase in temperatures resulting in overnight humidity values maxing out around 50% across eastern Colorado. A volatile environment is forecast to be set for the potential for large and quick moving wild fires is forecast to exist across portions of the area. Strong to damaging winds with sustained winds of 40-50 mph and wind gusts of at least 55-65 mph are currently forecast. Humidity values are also forecast to fall at least into the lower teens perhaps as low as the mid single digits.

Wind gusts are forecast to be around 20-30 mph through around 8-9am MT before quickly ramping up between 9-10am where gusts of 50-65 mph are forecast along with sustained winds around 40-50 mph. Winds during this time will be from the southwest. Into the early afternoon sustained winds may weaken some to around 30-40 mph with 60 mph gusts perhaps a bit more sporadic as any damaging wind gusts would be from increasing mixing heights to around 10000 feet AGL. A cold front moving in from the west will shift winds from the southwest to a more westerly direction along with very low dew points in the single digits helping keep humidity values low. There is some concern for another surge of damaging winds with the cold front as well. Breezy to gusty winds are then forecast to continue through the evening before waning around 11pm MT. Be aware for blowing dust and localized dust storms throughout the day as well. Overnight temperatures into Wednesday morning are forecast to fall below freezing which could have an impact on hoses/water freezing up should any fires still be ongoing.

Confidence is very high to almost a near certainty in numerous hours of critical fire weather occurring across most if not all of the forecast area. The main concern other than the low humidity values is the duration of the sustained winds greater than 30 mph and being as high as 50 mph at times. This along with near record high temperatures and the low humidity is the signal for numerous hours of extreme grassland fire danger index and forecast values exceeding 100. If the current forecast pans out then locations across eastern Colorado could see around 8 hours of extreme values.

Tuesday night and into Wednesday, widespread humidity values maxing out around 45-50% would provide little relief before another round of critical fire weather develops across the area. Locations along and south of Interstate 70 are currently favored for multiple hours of critical conditions again as southwest winds are forecast to gust up to 45 mph. 10 hour fuel moisture is forecast to fall to around 10% and then fall below 10% into Wednesday which suggests very dry fuels. Regional ERC values according to the National Interagency Coordination Center for southwestern portions of the area are forecast to continue to climb to in between 40 and 50 whereas the 90th percentile is located at 50. As mentioned above the northwestern portion of the area currently has ERC's in the 90th percentile according to the same site. This also does bring concern to the upper end potential of this fire weather event that there is is regional support for high ERC's.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Blowing Dust Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ001-013. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ013-014-027>029-041-042. CO...Blowing Dust Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ090>092. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ252>254. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ090>092. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ this evening for NEZ079>081.