textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in CO this afternoon.

- Strong NNW winds will develop in the wake of an early morning cold frontal passage on Thursday, strongest between sunrise and noon when sustained winds ~30-40 mph will gust 45-55 mph. Wind of this magnitude may create difficult travel conditions for high profile vehicles. Winds will weaken throughout the afternoon.

- Locally critical fire weather possible in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties on Thursday.

- Precipitation chances look to return late in the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Through this Evening: 18Z surface observations and SPC mesoanalysis data indicate strong instability (~3000 J/kg mlcape) over central and eastern Kansas.. along/east of a cold front extending northeastward from Liberal (KLBL) to Hays (KHYS) to Concordia (KCNK).. where rich low-level moisture (850 mb dewpoints 15-18C, surface dewpoints ~70F) resides beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer (700-500 mb lapse rates 8.0-8.5 C/km). West of the front, in the Goodland CWA, a thoroughly dry/stable airmass will preclude any chance for convection. Expect clear skies with highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's. Breezy N winds (earlier this morning) will become variable this afternoon as modest surface high pressure progresses eastward along the KS-NE border. Winds will shift to the SE and S late this afternoon and early this evening as the aforementioned surface high departs and the MSLP-850 mb height gradient reorients/ responds to a developing lee cyclone in southern CO. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect south of I-70 in CO (Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties), where a relatively tighter MSLP-850 mb height gradient and deep vertical mixing may foster a short period of 20-30 mph SSW-SW winds / marginal critical fire weather conditions late this afternoon.

Tonight-Thu: The aforementioned lee cyclone in southern CO will track east across southwest KS this evening then northeast into central KS tonight. Meanwhile, surface high pressure / cooler airmass in the lee of the northern Rockies.. enhanced (to some degree) by precip/evap cooling in WY.. will progress southward into the Nebraska Panhandle (this evening) and northwest KS (tonight), the leading edge of which will manifest as a northerly wind shift and effective cold frontal passage around sunrise (10-12Z). Forecast soundings indicate that ~40-45 knot NW low level flow will be present during, and a few hours after, the frontal passage, when efficient mixing assoc/w low- level cold advection and increasing insolation will promote a period of strong NW winds, strongest between ~12-16Z (6-10 am MDT).. when sustained winds ~30-40 mph and gusts up to ~55 mph are expected. Localized reductions in visibility with blowing dust possible. Winds will decrease to 25-35 mph by early afternoon, 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon and 10-20 mph by late afternoon (6 pm MDT/00Z Fri). Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties, where relative humidity readings will bottom-out ~15-20% during the afternoon. Given that [1] the strongest winds will occur during the morning, [2] winds will weaken throughout the afternoon and [3] that minimum RH's are expected to remain above 15%, widespread Red Flag conditions are not expected. If subsequent runs of model guidance suggest that stronger winds may persist into the afternoon and/or that minimum RH's will be substantially lower, an impact-based RFW could certainly be justified. Expect cooler high temperatures ranging from the upper 70's to lower 80's, coolest in eastern CO.

Thu night: High pressure over the Central Plains will foster light/variable winds for the majority of the area/night, except in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties where winds are likely to shift to the S by sunrise (~12Z) Fri. With clear skies, expect lows ranging from the mid-upper 40's to lower 50's.

Fri-Fri night: A moist low-level southerly return flow regime will ensue, on Friday as surface high pressure shifts eastward from the Central Plains to the Central MS River Valley, a baggy surface trough/cyclone redevelops in the lee of the Rockies, and.. a surface to 850 mb ridge over the Deep South directs Gulf moisture poleward from the TX Gulf Coast to the Central Plains. At present, guidance suggests that cap strength will increase with northern extent from the KS-OK border.. and that convective inhibition will be sufficient to suppress development in the Goodland CWA. Expect highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 225 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Saturday, our region is in a mostly zonal flow with a weak jet streak overhead. A surface low is forecast to set up somewhere in western Kansas, although ensembles disagree on how far south it will be. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s to 90s with the southwest county warning area (CWA) on the higher end. Kit Carson county will likely have a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts around 35 mph are possible coinciding with relative humidity (RH) values around 20%. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are around 60 for central Kit Carson county, so any fires that start have the potential to grow and spread out of control quickly.

Beginning late Saturday, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase as a series of embedded shortwaves move through the region. A cold frontal passage and increased upper-level support from a jet streak overhead will aid precipitation development. Chances for showers will continue Sunday through Monday with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-50%.

Sunday and Monday will be cooler in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Highs are expected to be in the 60s to 70s. We continue to see chances for showers and thunderstorms due to weak shortwave passages and increased upper-level support from a jet streak overhead. Severe potential is low due to cooler temperatures and limited instability. Sunny skies and a warming trend will start Tuesday through the rest of the forecast period with highs in the 80s for Tuesday and 90s for Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1045 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. North winds at 12-17 knots late this morning will become light/variable during the early- mid afternoon. Winds will remain light through the duration of the afternoon and shift to the ESE this evening. Winds will shift to the N-NNW and increase to 15-25 knots shortly before sunrise (~09-10Z) Thursday morning. NNW to NW winds will abruptly strengthen to 25-35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots shortly thereafter (~12-13Z). Strong NNW to NW winds will persist through the remainder of the morning. Brief/occasional reductions in visibility assoc/w blowing dust are possible. Winds will decrease to 20-30 knots around noon MDT (~18Z Thu), at the end of the TAF period. NNW to NW winds will further decrease to 15-25 knots during the early- mid afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None.