textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temps will persist through the remainder of the week, culminating in record or near-record highs (for the month of March) on Saturday.

- Fire Weather Watch in effect along/north of I-70 on Saturday.

- Strong northerly winds will accompany a cold frontal passage late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Blowing dust is possible during the frontal passage.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1241 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The short-term is dominated by an approaching high pressure system over the southwestern CONUS. This will put us under northwesterly flow, which could allow for some weak shortwaves that cause light forcing. However, down in the lower levels, dry conditions will prevail and precipitation is not expected from the lack of moisture. This will also allow temperatures to climb over the next several days as skies remain fairly clear.

Temperatures today have been bumped up a few degrees, mainly due to westerly flow and 850 mb temperatures warming into the 20-25C range. As it stands, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s, with the warmest temperatures in the southeastern CWA. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to be fairly similar as today's. Due to the more northerly flow and 850 mb temperatures still being in the 20-25 C range, as well as slightly stronger wind mixing the PBL, the warming trend is expected to be stunted. However, there is a 35% chance locations in the southeastern CWA reach into the low 90s. Record high temperatures are in jeopardy, more information can be found in the climate section below. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to remain in the 40s.

As far fire weather concerns go, they are pretty low. Winds during the afternoon are forecast to remain under 20 kts as RH values drop to around 10-15%. Confidence for pockets of brief critical fire weather conditions is about 40-50%, highest south of U.S. 36. However, confidence in Red Flag Warning criteria being met is only around 5%.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 302 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Saturday remains forecast to be one of the hottest days so far with high temperatures forecast to reach the 90s. Some 100s for eastern portions of the area is not out of the question. Most locations are forecast to set new record temperatures. The good news for people that don't like heat is that the upper ridge driving this is forecast to collapse during the day as an upper trough begins to push into the Northern Plains. With the hot temperatures, relative humidity is forecast to drop into the single digits and teens. This does lead to some critical fire weather concerns, though the limiting factor remains the wind. Right now, the forecast timing of the system pushing a low/front near through the area is during the evening and overnight hours Saturday. With this and the ridge axis shifting over the area, the pressure and height gradients are forecast to remain weak and keep winds generally below 20 mph. The thing that could change that is that there is chance that the trough could dig south a little faster as suggested by the GEFS and European ensembles. In this case, the pressure and height gradients would be a bit tighter and allow for wind gusts around 30-35 mph while we have the very low humidity. Due to this, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Saturday.

The Fire Weather Watch does continue overnight as the front passing could allow for a period where winds are stronger in the wake of the front (20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph) while RH is still around or below 15% and not fully recovered. Currently the chance for winds to reach High Wind Warning criteria is less than 10%, so the main concern is for lingering critical fire weather conditions. Blowing dust may also become a concern if the winds are on the stronger side of the forecast, especially with the front passing through very dry conditions.

Sunday and Monday are forecast to be on the cooler side in the wake of the cold front. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s with lows Monday below freezing. The lower temperatures are forecast to keep relative humidity generally in the 20s or higher, which should help keep the chances for critical fire weather conditions low. That being said, there may still be some increased fire danger with winds forecast to be around 10-20 mph and gusts in the 25-40 mph range both days behind the system.

Tuesday-Thursday are forecast to see temperatures warm as another upper ridge slides into the Southwestern United States. However, like this weekend, another trough is forecast to follow up and flatten the ridge. This should bring another system through the area. The issue is when as guidance has been jumping around a bit and ensembles show a 24 hour spread mainly around Wednesday. Should the system push through late Wednesday or Thursday, we could see hot temperatures again with highs in the 90s. Otherwise, the current main concern is that critical fire weather may develop any of these days depending on the winds as dry conditions are forecast to remain in place.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. Aside from transient wisps of cirrus at or above ~20,000 ft AGL, clear skies will otherwise prevail. Light (7-14 knot) W to NW winds are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Daily and monthly high temperature records may be in jeopardy on Friday and Saturday (March 20-21). High temperatures records are listed below (in Fahrenheit). Note: * indicates a record set on multiple years. For simplicity, the most recent record is listed.

================================= Record Highs for March 20 (Fri) ================================= Burlington.........87 in 1907 Goodland...........90 in 1907 Hill City..........88 in 1916 McCook.............85 in 1997*

================================= Record Highs for March 21 (Sat) ================================= Burlington.........84 in 2011 Goodland...........84 in 2011* Hill City..........93 in 1907 McCook.............89 in 1910

================================= Monthly Record Highs (March) ================================= Burlington......93 on 03-19-1921 Goodland........90 on 03-20-1907* Hill City.......94 on 03-16-2015* McCook..........93 on 03-16-2015*

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for KSZ001>004-014>016. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for COZ252. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for NEZ079>081.