textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue today.

- An upcoming storm system may bring light accumulating snow, breezy north winds and blowing snow to portions of the area Thursday evening through Friday evening. Areas along and south of I-70 appear to be most at-risk.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

Today: Expect conditions similar to yesterday (mostly sunny, above average temperatures), albeit with an ill-defined low level (surface to 850 mb) pattern and light/variable winds.

Tonight-Thursday: Cooler on Thu, with highs in the 40's. A closed low offshore of Baja, CA (at 07Z this morning) will deamplify into an open wave as it lifts northeastward across northern Mexico (this afternoon), the Desert Southwest (this evening) and southern Rockies (tonight). An associated lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO and southwest KS (roughly from Lamar CO east to Garden City KS) overnight, as the upper wave approaches from the southwest. Guidance suggests that precipitation will develop on the E and NE periphery of the surface low (mainly along/east of Hwy 83) shortly before sunrise (10-12Z).. that the majority of precipitation (and greatest amounts) will occur between ~12-20Z in far eastern portions of the area (Hwy 283), in assoc/w strengthening low-level frontogenesis in vicinity of a SW-to-NE oriented baroclinic zone extending northeastward (roughly) from Johnson/KJHN to Hill City/KHLC.. and that precipitation will exit the NWS Goodland county warning area during the early-mid afternoon (~19-21Z). While northerly low-level flow.. and southward advection of a drier airmass from the north (in Nebraska).. may afford some degree of evaporative cooling, allowing surface temperatures to locally fall into the upper 30's in the presence of moderate/ persistent precipitation during the late morning, forecast soundings via the GFS and HRRR indicate that thermal profiles will be well above-freezing (esp. in the lowest 1-3 KFT), strongly suggesting that rain will be the dominant precipitation type. Guidance does suggest that an entirely separate, SSW-to- NNE oriented band of light precipitation could potentially develop further to the north and west (and at higher elevations) over north-central or northeast CO, where thermal profiles are more amenable to snow, though.. poor model-to-model and run-to- run continuity with regard to whether or not (and where) this might occur (as far west as the I-76 corridor, as far east as Yuma County) and precipitation amounts (trace to ~0.10", if any) indicates that predictability is low enough to preclude more than a brief mention.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

Saturday will be windy in the wake of our system from Friday. Winds will start off mild around 10 knots. Winds will shift to the northwest and strengthen to 15-20 knots. The northwest portion of our county warning area (CWA) could see gusts up to 35 knots. Winds will calm down by Saturday evening. High temperatures will be in the low 40s with lows in the teens. Wind chills will be a concern overnight Saturday into Sunday. The western portion of the CWA will see wind chills below zero. The eastern portion will be in the single digits.

Warmer weather makes a return Sunday with high temperatures in the lower 50s. Lows will be in the teens and wind chill values will still be in the single digits. Winds will be light and variable for the most part, but we could see gusts from 10-15 knots.

Monday and Tuesday will continue to be unseasonably warm. Winds are light and variable with gusts from 15-25 knots. The western portion of the CWA will be on the gustier side. We start to see an increase in Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) Tuesday afternoon. The eastern portion of the CWA has less than 5% for PoPs, but our Colorado counties are seeing PoPs of 5-10%. Models show a ridge building in southwest CONUS and a trough digging in the Great Lakes region mid week, which could explain our slight increase in PoPs Tuesday. We will monitor this synoptic setup for precipitation potential as the week continues.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1020 AM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through at least the majority of the 18Z TAF period at KMCK and KGLD terminals. Winds are expected to remain light (~5 kts) and variable shifting from a westerly/northwesterly direction to a more southerly one around 23-02Z. A cold front will move over the terminals from the north late tonight into Thursday morning (~06Z-10Z) causing the winds to become northerly and increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 22 kts possible after 15Z. Ceilings should decrease behind the cold front to ~5-9 kft with lower ceilings of 1.5-2.5 kft possible after 15Z as light rain could begin to impact the terminals.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.