textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Similar conditions to Friday are expected on Saturday with northwest winds gusting to 35 mph.

UPDATE

Issued at 702 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

While there are likely a few spots that may briefly see RFW conditions due to breezy winds and gradually increasing humidity values, with cooling temperatures the threat for widespread and persistent critical fire weather conditions is low. Therefore the Red Flag Warning for this afternoon has been allowed to expire.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1237 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Throughout the day, winds are forecast to keep gusting to around 25- 40 kts, with the highest winds in the northwestern CWA. RH values are forecast to drop into teens during the afternoon hours. Along and south of U.S. 40 in Kansas and south of I-70 in Colorado, critical fire weather conditions are expected as RH values drop into the low teens. North of this area, RH values are forecast to drop into the mid teens, based on how fast temperatures warm up and how far the very dry air expands to the northeast. Critical fire weather conditions are possible. Yuma county will see the strongest winds, which is pushing GFDI values into the low 60s. With this in mind, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire Tri-State area.

Throughout the day, patchy blowing dust with these stronger winds is expected. By 21Z 0-2 km lapse rates will be above 10 C/km, increasing the potential for lofted dust. Confidence in visibility being reduced to less than 1 mile in a plume or two near source regions is about 50%.

Overnight tonight, winds will gradually weaken, down to around 15-20 kts by 12Z. On the back end of the 500 mb low, there may enough low level moisture that light precipitation occurs along and north of U.S. 34. Precipitation should be over by 9Z, before temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s.

Saturday, we keep our northwesterly flow in the low levels as a high at 850 mb exits southeastern Colorado to the southeast. This will work to keep temperatures in the 60s as northwesterly winds gust up around 20-30 kts. RH values look to remain in the upper teens, but if temperatures warm, critical fire weather conditions may return. We could see some stratus throughout the day, which may limit temperatures and keep dew points and RH values fairly high.

Temperatures Saturday night look to be a repeat of Friday night. There is a 20% chance temperatures drop into the low 20s as winds become calm and the clouds clear out. With the cold temperatures tonight and tomorrow night, any budding vegetation may be damaged from the cold temperatures.

Sunday looks to warm into the low 70s as RH values drop into the mid teens. Thankfully, winds look to remain under 20 kts, limiting the fire weather threat. Overnight temperatures look to be slightly warmer, cooling into the 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Monday, there is a building ridge in the western CONUS with a developing low off the west coast. This places us in a northwesterly upper level flow. Expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures forecast in the 60s to 70s and lows in the 30s. The southern portion of the county warning area (CWA) will be on the warmer side. Greeley and Wichita counties could see some elevated fire weather conditions Monday afternoon due to relative humidity (RH) values forecast in the high teens and southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph possible. RH values for the rest of the CWA are forecast in the 20s to 30s, so fire weather weather concerns are minimal.

We start to see chances for precipitation return overnight Monday into Tuesday. A split upper level flow is present west of the region. As it propogate east, a few embedded shortwaves will traverse through our region increasing chances for precipitation. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) range from 15-35% increasing from east to west. Rain is the expected primary precipitation type based on forecast temperatures, but areas that drop below freezing could see a wintry mix. Beginning Tuesday morning, PoPs further increase from 30-50% for the entire CWA. Precipitation is expected to exit the area early Wednesday.

Wednesday remains uncertain as model guidances differ significantly on the track and intensity of a low pressure system along the US/Canadian border. GFS and ECMWF ensemble members forecast the center of the low as far north as central Canada and as far south as Nebraska. Models are also differing on the jet stream position. The GFS has the jet further south, resulting in the Polar and Subtropical jet merging, which the ECMWF keeps the Polar jet further north. Where the jet stream and low pressure end up setting up, will determine our precipitation chances.

Temperatures are more certain for Wednesday with highs forecast in the high 70s to 80s. NBM 75-25th percentile temperatures currently have a spread around 5 degrees F. Potential for precipitation returns overnight Thursday. Low confidence in forecast specifics due to this being the end of the forecast period and significant model variances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the 00Z period. Gusty winds will remain from the northwest this evening through much of the afternoon on Saturday, gusting around 25 kts. During the mid to late afternoon Saturday, winds are expected to become more northerly.

KGLD may see some LLWS around 09-14Z at 400-600 feet AGL from the northwest at 40-50 kts. Otherwise, winds gradually weaken overnight between 06 and 14Z before picking back up tomorrow morning. Wind gusts are forecast to increase once again to 25-30 kts starting after 15Z Saturday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.