textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditional threat for some storms across the northwestern CWA this afternoon and evening.

- Storm chances return daily the next few days.

- Fog, potentially dense, is forecast to return tonight into Friday morning.

- Warming back into 100s over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 105 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A high over the Four Corners will persist as we have a trough near the Appalachians. This will lead to persistent northwesterly flow over the CWA, which is a prime setup for shortwave troughs leading to daily convection chances. Today, highs are forecast to warm into the low 90s. Temperatures have come down a few degrees from the previous forecast, likely due to lingering stratus.

This afternoon and evening, there is a very weak shortwave trough leading to a mild cold front moving in from the northwest. This has a 10-15% chance of leading to some storms moving into the northwestern CWA. SPC has put this area in a marginal risk for 50- 65+ MPH winds and 0.75-2 inch hail. If storms are able to form and tap into the environment, expect severe weather, but confidence for initiation is low. Convection looks to cease by 5-6Z. There is a secondary area that may develop an isolated cell or two in eastern Colorado between I-70 and U.S. 40. This would be from a blob of 500 mb vorticity. There is only a 5% chance of storms forming in this area. It's worth noting, additional storms are expected to form south of the CWA and move eastward after 0Z.

Overnight, temperatures are forecast to cool into the low to mid 60s. We are expecting another round of fog and stratus, potentially leading to less than 1/4 mile visibility in the fog. Most likely areas impacted will be east of KS 27 and north of U.S. 40. This looks to start around 10Z and last until around 15Z.

Tomorrow is forecast to be warmer than today. Current forecast has temperatures in the upper 90s tomorrow, however the stratus may once again lower the highs for tomorrow, similar to today. Much like today, there is another shortwave trough expected to move through the CWA. This brings in another chance of convection. Potential for convection looks better for tomorrow, around 15-25%, favoring eastern Colorado.

High based thunderstorms are the mode of choice for Friday afternoon and evening convection. If storms do fire, it will likely be around 20Z and linger until around 0-3Z. 50-65 MPH wind and 0.5-1.5 inch hail are the primary threats. Hodographs are fairly straights, so splitting cells are likely.

Overnight lows Friday night look to cool into the 60s with yet another chance of fog and stratus in the northeastern CWA for Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Saturday, the region is forecast to be under a weak upper-level flow continuing the warming trend. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s to 100s. There is a chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms due to embedded shortwave passages and a surface low forecast to develop over the Tri-State area. Probability of Precipation (PoPs) are around 20%. If storms are able to form, large hail and strong winds are the primary hazards.

Beginning Sunday, we transition to more of a zonal upper-level flow with a ridge building west of the Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast to remain unseasonably warm for the county warning area (CWA) through Tuesday with highs in the 90s to 100s. A weak cold front moving through Tuesday night will bring modest cooling, but high temperatures are still forecast in the 90s for Wednesday and Thursday.

Starting Monday evening through at least Wednesday evening, there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight due to embedded shortwave passages. Late Wednesday, we begin to transition to more of a northwest upper-level flow with increased upper-level support from a jet streak overhead. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast period. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the late evenings and overnight hours Wednesday and Thursday with PoPs around 50-70%.

Despite the unseasonably warm temperatures, fire weather concerns are minimal for the forecast period. Relative humidity (RH) values for the western CWA are forecast in the low teens to 20s for Saturday through Monday. Peak wind gusts are forecast to be around 25 mph, but highest wind gusts do not coincide with lowest RH values of the day. Beginning Monday afternoon, winds will primarily be from the east advecting additional moisture into the Tri-State area allowing minimum RH values to gradually recover into the 20s to 30s after Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1016 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to return by 18Z for KGLD and KMCK. Cloud cover will break apart as the ceilings rise, however there is a 40% chance that patches of MVFR ceilings may move over a terminal between 18-19Z. Winds will be southeasterly throughout the day, and we could see some gusts up around 20 kts, but will largely be around 15 kts. Overnight, winds will weaken and become more variable before another round of fog and stratus moves in early tomorrow morning. Friday morning, expect MVFR to LIFR conditions returning for a few hours, lingering longer at KMCK. By 15-16Z, VFR conditions look to return. Warm temperatures are expected this weekend, leading to even lower density altitudes.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.