textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong NNW winds will peak late this morning. Localized plumes of blowing dust may lower visibility and impact air quality. Winds will steadily weaken throughout the afternoon.

- Briefly critical fire weather conditions possible in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties today and Friday.

- Precipitation chances look to return late in the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1242 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Chances for precipitation are low tonight, but if we do get any convection, it looks to be along and north of U.S. 36, quickly moving out of the area. If convection moves into the CWA, it would likely (90%) remain sub-severe. Overnight temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Currently, a high coming out of the Northern Rockies is pushing a cold front into the northwestern CWA while a low moving over the southern CWA is pulling in the same front. With the FROPA, winds look to be in the 25-40 kts range, but as the morning progresses, occasional 45-50 kts gusts are expected. These gusts are expected to be fairly isolated, keeping confidence too low to issue a High Wind Warning. However, most likely areas to see 50 kts gusts will be along U.S. west of Oakley to the CWA border. Peak winds will occur around 11-17Z, and gradually weakening throughout the afternoon hours. Highs look to be topping out in the mid 70s to low 80s across the area.

Threat wise, there is a chance for blowing dust. Due to weak lapse rates as the FROPA occurs, the potential for a wall of dust is less than 5%. Between 12-18Z, lapse rates slightly improve and there is an increased risk for plumes of dust to reduce visibility. After 18Z, lapse rates are more supportive for blowing dust, but the winds start weakening. As it stands there's about a 40% chance visibility will drop below 1 mile in a plume of blowing dust and a 75% air quality will be reduced from blowing dust. The dust threat peaks around 15-18Z and ends when gusts reduce to less than 27 kts.

Additionally, there is a returning risk of critical fire weather conditions for today. The winds mentioned above and RH values dropping into the teens as we reach our daily maximum temperatures are allowing GFDI values to climb around 60 in parts of eastern Colorado. However, the best winds are before RH values tank, leading to about 40% confidence Red Flag criteria is hit. The rest of the area looks to peak in the 30-50 GFDI range.

Winds will be fairly weak overnight and from the east as an inverted ridge pushes past the CWA. This should allow temperatures to cool to around 50. Also, behind this front, the high will lead to zonal flow in the mid to upper levels.

Friday morning, a high will be moving out of southern Colorado and will push a warm front through the area. This will lead to southerly winds to be gusting 30-40 kts during the morning hours. Once again winds will be weakening in the midday and afternoon hours. There is a low-end fire weather threat for eastern Colorado again, but RH values look to largely remain above critical thresholds.

Around 0Z Saturday, a 500 mb shortwave trough looks to move over the region, which looks to be enough forcing to cause some weak storms to fire. No notable impacts are expected from these storms and they look to be focused on the evening hours. Once the storms clear out, temperatures look to cool into the mid 50s to upper 60s, remaining warmer where the precipitation was.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 225 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Saturday, our region is in a mostly zonal flow with a weak jet streak overhead. A surface low is forecast to set up somewhere in western Kansas, although ensembles disagree on how far south it will be. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s to 90s with the southwest county warning area (CWA) on the higher end. Kit Carson county will likely have a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts around 35 mph are possible coinciding with relative humidity (RH) values around 20%. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are around 60 for central Kit Carson county, so any fires that start have the potential to grow and spread out of control quickly.

Beginning late Saturday, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase as a series of embedded shortwaves move through the region. A cold frontal passage and increased upper-level support from a jet streak overhead will aid precipitation development. Chances for showers will continue Sunday through Monday with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-50%.

Sunday and Monday will be cooler in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Highs are expected to be in the 60s to 70s. We continue to see chances for showers and thunderstorms due to weak shortwave passages and increased upper-level support from a jet streak overhead. Severe potential is low due to cooler temperatures and limited instability. Sunny skies and a warming trend will start Tuesday through the rest of the forecast period with highs in the 80s for Tuesday and 90s for Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 915 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. Ongoing 30-40 knot NNW to NW winds will peak late this morning (15-17Z) then steadily weaken during the afternoon, decreasing to 20-25 knots by 21Z and 15 knots by 00Z. Winds will become light and variable after sunset and will remain light overnight. Winds will shift to the S shortly after sunrise and increase to ~15 knots with gusts to ~25 knots late Friday morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.