textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday with development favored along a dry line in Colorado. Supercells will be possible capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday with damaging winds and blowing dust the main hazards.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as well with a Fire Weather Watch issued for Colorado and adjacent Kansas counties for Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1050 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Current observations show a low amplitude upper ridge over the area with a larger low/trough to the northwest. At the surface, a low pressure center remains just west of the area. The ridging and CIN has kept the shower and storm coverage this evening and early overnight on the low side. We still have plenty of instability with MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km, and 0-6km shear around 30 kts, so additional showers and storms may be possible through the night. These would favor north of I-70 where outflows from a large cluster near the Panhandle of Nebraska was located during the evening. Even with a somewhat favorable environment for storms, severe weather is unlikely with the upper subsidence and the CIN in place. The other thing to keep an eye on tonight is the potential for fog. While not the strongest signal due to potential precipitation and outflows in the area, there could be a few pockets of fog with light easterly winds forecast and decent amounts of low-level moisture over the area. Otherwise, temperatures are forecast to drop into the 60s, with a few 50s in Eastern Colorado if skies can clear.

Monday is largely dependent on what happens during the morning hours. The larger trough axis to the northwest is forecast to lift northwest, potentially bring a shortwave through the High Plains while deamplifying the ridging. If showers/storms are ongoing or can develop/maintain due to the moist air mass and slight upper lift, it would likely change what NW Kansas and SW Nebraska see through the day. If the showers and storms persist, then cloudy skies and precipitation would likely keep most of the area on the cooler side with temperatures in the 80s. Most of the storms would be sub-severe and help stabilize the environment for later. If the showers/storms aren't present, cloud cover should burn off with most of the area warming into the 90s. This would allow for storms to form in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska, with severe storms possible as early as noon.

If storms are allowed to form in a relatively clean/favorable environment, then clusters and supercells are possible. This could pose a big problem as MUCAPE around 3000 J/kg, mid level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km, and 0-6km shear around 45-50 kts would support very large hail. Supercells could potentially produce 3+" hail if robust enough. A few tornadoes would also be possible as guidance is more bullish on LCLs around a few thousand feet and 0-1km shear around 10- 20 kts. Winds may also gust up to 80-85 mph with the supercells or organized clusters. This could also lead to blowing dust with a wall of dust possible with a strong and organized outflow. Not all storms would produce the high end hazards, but there could be more than a couple of instances if multiple supercells develop.

If the environment is worked over by early showers/storms, Eastern Colorado could still see the aforementioned hazards with storms moving in from the higher terrain to the west. The main change is that the storms likely wouldn't make it far through the area and severe storms would be unlikely to develop over NW Kansas and SW Nebraska.

The overnight hours would see any showers and storms steadily push out of the area to the east. Mid to high level cloud cover would likely persist over the area with the upper southwesterly flow, helping to keep the area insulated and temperatures in the 60s.

Tuesday, a reinforcing upper trough is forecast to push in from the northwest while the original wave ejects off to the north. As it does so, it is forecast to bring another trough axis near the Plains. This would cause the surface low pressure to deepen and push off to the east, more over the area. As it does so, winds are forecast to strengthen and shift to out of the southwest. Speed are currently forecast to be around 20-30 mph with gusts in the 30-50 mph range. The highers speeds should favor those along the Colorado border. The southwest winds are also forecast to bring in a dryline and dry the air over much of the area. This combination of strong wind and dry air are forecast to produce critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most counties along the Colorado border with the risk for very high fire danger. Burning is not advised as fires would likely be very hard to control. In conjunction with this, the influx of warm air is forecast to allow temperatures to reach the 100s across most of the area. Thankfully, the drier air should keep the overall heat risk down with apparent temperatures lower than the actual temperatures. Still, take extra caution if you are spending any extend period of time outside.

During the afternoon and evening hours, storms are forecast to fire up again with the trough axis and dryline helping to provide additional lift. The lower moisture availability and forecast lower 0-6km shear around 30-35 kts are forecast to have the storms be more pulse in nature. This should limit the chances for severe weather, except when it comes to wind gusts. While there is little signal for widespread strong gusts, the drier air near the surface could help stronger cold pools develop. Some guidance suggests peak wind gusts could get to 80 mph. This would again lead to a concern for blowing dust and potential walls of dust with good organized outflows.

Tomorrow night, any lingering showers or storms should end close to midnight as the trough axis swings into the Plains and pushes the better forcing to the east. It should also push any lingering moisture to the east as well and allow for clearer skies. In spite of the skies clearing, the warm temperatures during the day combined with strong winds around 15-25 mph are forecast to keep temperatures up a bit. Locales in the eastern portion of the area could stay above 70 while those further west close to 60 or just below 60.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

***Synopsis***

Broad troughing at 500-mb looks to be moving in overhead Wednesday morning, with several shortwave troughs embedded in the larger feature. These shortwave features would each have their own attendant surface low pressure. A weak cold front looks to be traversing the forecast area Wednesday morning, before the second shortwave passes Wednesday evening to provide a stronger cold front. Northerly winds may persist on Thursday through the afternoon hours. Forecast guidance begins to diverge a bit more by Friday, as GEFS amd EC members are about evenly split on whether a surface high or low will be in place across the Central High Plains. GEFS and EC 500- mb mean spread guidance does suggest that another trough may be slowly moving south-southeastward out of Southwest Canada beginning Friday, which may support the low a bit more. However, even if the surface low is able to form, the exact location is uncertain, which could influence our weather as well.

***Wednesday/Thursday***

High temperatures are forecast to lower a bit Wednesday, but are still in the 90s across the County Warning Area (CWA). Hot conditions in addition to northwesterly to westerly surface flow throughout the day would promote dry conditions, with relative humidities (RH) in the low to mid teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place Wednesday afternoon, with forecast wind gusts as high as 30 mph. The greatest risk appears to be across Eastern Colorado, where LREF guidance shows a 40% chance or greater for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard, alongside NBM guidance which suggests a 50% chance or greater for wind gusts to meet criteria. These probabilities may reach as high as an 85% chance for RH and 90% chance for wind gusts in far western portions of Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed on Wednesday has decreased a bit, but is still around 15-20% for these Eastern Colorado Counties.

As northerly winds look to persist on Thursday, highs are forecast to drop further into the 80s. However, dry conditions are favored to remain, with RH values in the low to mid-teens again. Wind gusts are forecast to weaken throughout the day Thursday, but could still be capable of 25-30 mph in some areas, particularly in Eastern Colorado. This zone still has a 1 in 3 chance or greater that wind gusts meet criteria for critical fire weather during the early afternoon hours, and as high as a 80% chance for Northwest Yuma County. Still, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday is only around 5% or so since wind gusts are forecast to weaken through the afternoon, and not meet the 3-hr duration for the warning.

***Friday-Sunday***

Again, model guidance begins to diverge by Friday afternoon, with uncertainty in whether a surface high or surface low will be present across the Central High Plains. NBM 75th-25th percentile spread in maximum temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees on Friday, and 10 to 20 degrees on Saturday, with 75th percentile values in the 100s both days in some locations. This would be more in line with solutions showing a surface low near the CWA, establishing southerly flow across the area. This solution may also be associated with precipitation. NBM 48-hr precipitation guidance suggests that activity between Friday and Saturday combined has up to a 50% chance for greater than 0.1 inches to fall. This activity may be associated with showers and thunderstorms, as LREF guidance suggests anywhere from a few hundred to a few thousand J/kg of CAPE (a measure of instability) to be present. Thunderstorms in this scenario could become severe if LREF 75th percentile or greater 500-mb winds can be experienced (35 kts or greater). Otherwise, storms would likely be weaker in nature.

If the surface high is allowed to form, temperatures could fall as low as the upper 70s Friday and Saturday. Precipitation may also be lacking under this scenario. While GEFS and EC members are split on which scenario occurs, GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance shows a trough approaching the forecast area from the northwest, which could slightly favor the solution with the surface low setting up near our area. Going into Sunday, cooler conditions appear more likely regardless of which scenario occurs, as the high either remains in place or the low moves off to the south, allowing a cold front to cross the area. Sunday's highs are currently forecast in the 70s and lower 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through most of the night, though KGLD may have ceilings drop below 500ft and KMCK may see storm activity around 10-15Z. Both conditions have at least a 30-50% chance of occurring. During the day tomorrow, showers and storms could linger over KMCK all day, though the more likely scenario is that they break after 15-16Z. VFR conditions should return by the late morning. Be aware though that additional storms could develop as early as 18Z. These have the possibility of being supercells with very large hail, wind gusts above 60 kts, and maybe a tornado. The storm risk is forecast to linger through 06Z, with a peak around 21-03Z. There would then be another brief break before ceilings drop again late in the night tomorrow.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ001-013-027. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ252>254. NE...None.