textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Exceptionally dry conditions, light winds and a warming trend through Tuesday.

- For Wednesday and Thursday there is the potential for a multi hazard system. The main concerns are severe storms, fire weather, and blowing dust.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

This morning, we'll get some east-southeasterly winds pushing into the CWA. These light winds and the heat from the day will work to keep temperatures from dropping below 30. A 500 mb ridge will be moving overhead during the day, keeping the weather docile and warming us up even more. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s. This will once again push RH values down near 10- 15%, but southerly winds look to generally remain at or under 15 kts. There is a 40% chance isolated gusts of 25-30 MPH occur along and east of a line from Gove to Norton, KS, leading to briefly critical fire weather conditions. Potential for full Red Flag criteria is less than 15%.

Tonight, a mostly stationary Colorado surface low working with a slow, north moving surface high over the southern CONUS will bring in some southerly winds. This will work to keep temperatures in the 40s across the CWA. This will give us a jump start on warming up Tuesday and create a dryline diagonally across the CWA.

Tuesday's highs look to warm into the into the 80s to near 90, once again driving RH values into the low teens. The dryline looks to gradually push to the southeast throughout the day. By 18Z it looks to be near a line from Leoti to Norton. With this dryline, there is a 5% chance a high-based thunderstorm could form. The main hazard with this storm would be dry lightning. This is the biggest fire weather threat for Tuesday as winds are forecast to remain under 20 kts.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Wednesday and Thursday there is a trough over the west coast that will move into the CWA along with a surface low. Guidance is also showing high confidence in there being a dryline associated with this system. There are two concerns that will be associated with this dryline. High temperatures look to be in the mid 80s to low 90s along with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

For the moist side of the of the dryline. PoPs show percentages of 10-25 with the highest percentages in southern Nebraska. There is a potential for severe weather with forecast dew points in the range of 40-50 degrees along with lapse rates of 8-9 C/km could support a few storms. As for timing the greatest chance to see storms are Wednesday afternoon into the night.

For the dry side of the dryline there is a fire weather concern. RH values are in the lower teens and even reaching single digits for eastern Colorado. Wind gusts look to be in the 20-45 mph range mainly out of the south. The peak values for Wednesday look to be in the afternoon into the night. There is the potential for critical fire weather. For the eastern colorado counties there is a 60-90% chance of exceeding 25 mph and a 20-35% chance of exceeding 40 mph. Looking at the GDFI values the begin Wednesday morning around 30-50 the grow to up to 130 around 21z then decreasing around 5z Thursday. These conditions show signs of supporting explosive fire growth along with the wind gusts and RH vales support fire weather being met on Wednesday and Thursday. One other potential hazard we could see is localized blowing dust. Guidance is showing there being winds and lower level lapse rate that promote blowing dust. However upper level lapse rates are higher which are showing a sign of the dust mixing out.

One very important thing to note is there is high uncertainty of the timing and the location of this system. Over the past few days guidance has been showing uncertainty on if the Low deepens, moves quicker, or stalls. This will alter the location of the dryline and the conditions that come with it. Given this is 4-5 days out for the forecast period a good amount can continue to change.

For the extended part of the forecast, Friday through Sunday's set up is still dependent on how the system on Wednesday and Thursday pans out. If the previous system moves out quicker and the low of the west coast continues to deepen then changes in precipitation and timing will occur. For Friday precipitation chances return with the PoPs being in the 20-50% for the majority of the CWA in the afternoon. For temperatures the highs look to be in the 60s and lows in the 30s-40s. Wind gusts look to be in the 20-30 mph range.

Saturday looks very similar to Friday with highs in the low 50s to mid 60s with lows in the low 30s. Winds look to be similar with gusts peaking around 20-30 mph. PoPs also show some signs of there being precipitation with values staying in the 20-50% range for majority of the CWA from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. The high and low temperatures staying around the range as Friday and Saturday. One thing to keep an eye on is the precipitation chances for Saturday/Sunday occur when temperatures look to be in the 30-40 degree range. Given this is 6-7 days out there is still uncertainty but still good to see signs of seeing moisture for the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1053 PM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. Winds from the east will be weakening between 6-10Z, and during this time KGLD may see some LLWS at 200-400 feet AGL from the east at 35 kts. In the range of 8-10Z, winds will become light and variable and remain that way until Monday afternoon. During the afternoon hours, winds will vary between southeasterly and southwesterly, favoring a southwesterly direction later in the evening, but generally remain in the 10-15 kts range.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.