textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Saturday, strong northerly winds may create hazardous travel conditions for high-profile vehicles, especially on east-to- west routes, such as Interstate 70, where cross winds will be strongest. The wind will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the area along with patches of blowing dust reducing air quality and localized visibility reductions.

- Chances for precipitation remain below 10% for much of the next 7 days.

- Mild conditions forecast for next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 156 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

For the remainder of this afternoon, high cloud cover should be present as high level moisture moves in ahead of the upper trough. Temperatures should remain in the 60s with a few 70s in eastern parts of the area where sunny skies were present for longer.

Tonight, a cold front is set to move through around the midnight hour. The cold front should shift winds quickly to out of the northwest with speeds around 15-25 mph and some gusts up to 40 mph. There is a low chance for a few sprinkles as some mid-level moisture pushes through with the trough, but with dry air remaining in place at the surface. Temperatures should hover in the 30s and 40s as the stronger cold air advection remains well behind the front.

Saturday is forecast to be a nuisance weather day as the upper trough swings through the North-Central Plains. The front should be well through the area, but the cold air mass is forecast to be lagged behind to the north, putting the area in a fairly strong pressure gradient. Wind speeds should increase to around 20-35 mph. With the tighter height gradients from the upper trough, winds around 850-500mb are forecast to be between 40-50 kts. These winds should be able to mix to the surface with sunshine forecast in the wake of the trough with all the moisture pushed out and wrapping over the Eastern Plains (closer to the main low pressure center). Looking across the different guidance, the consensus is for wind gusts to be between 40-50 mph, though recent events suggest that some gusts to near 60 mph are possible. Given the limited aspect in both time and space of the 60 mph gusts, have opted to not issue a High Wind Warning. The winds and steep low level lapse rates are forecast to allow for some dust to kick up. With mixing heights forecast to be around 7000ft and the stronger winds forecast for a few hours during the afternoon, the current expectation is that dust would become diffuse and just lead to some hazy skies. There doesn't seem to be much of a suggestion that the front would slow and we would cap more, which would lead to an increased risk for plumes. Still, be cautious around open or freshly plowed fields as it would be impossible for some visibility reductions in very small areas. On the fire side of things, the strong winds will lead to increased fire danger. However, Red Flag Warning criteria will not be met as the cooling temperatures will help keep relative humidity in the 20s.

Saturday night, the main bulk of the cold air mass is forecast to move into the area as the main upper trough axis surges south through the Plains. Winds should slowly lower as the center of the high pressure moves over the area. With speeds around 5-10 mph and the cold air advection, temperatures should drop into the 20s with some teens possible in Eastern Colorado.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

We'll start off the long-term with a large low pressure system over the eastern CONUS and a high over the western CONUS. This will put the CWA under northwesterly flow for the bulk of the period. Dry conditions are forecast to dominate, but we could see some weak showers scattered throughout the long-term.

High throughout the long-term will warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Friday looks to be the warmest, with mid 70s forecast throughout most of the CWA. Low temperatures are a lot more stable. Lows in the 30s will be common throughout the region through the long-term, save for Friday night, when temperatures may remain in the mid 40s for the southeastern half of the CWA.

RH values will generally bottom out in the upper teens to low 20s in eastern Colorado with the rest of the CWA being more moist. Tuesday and Friday are the potential exceptions. RH values are already forecast to drop into the mid teens. Combined with northwesterly winds gusting around 20-25 kts, there is concern for critical fire weather conditions. Current confidence in Red Flag Warning criteria being met is around 10-20%.

Over next weekend, we are keeping a close eye on the potential for a far more active patten to move in. A shortwave trough may move through the area Friday night, leading to some light precipitation, mainly in the northwestern CWA. Guidance is also showing a large low impacting the area somewhere in the Sunday to Tuesday (Nov 16-18) range, which could bring impactful precipitation. Due to it being so far out, additional actionable information is not available.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 945 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions remain forecast for each terminal. Southwest winds are forecast to continue for the next few hours before shifting to the northwest with an approaching cold front. Winds are forecast to increase with the front gusting around 30 knots. LLWS is also forecast for a few hours just ahead of the front as well. Winds are forecast to continue through the day becoming gusty to strong with gusts around 40 knots from the late morning through the afternoon hours before slowly waning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 121 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are currently forecast Saturday for essentially the entire forecast area as gusty to strong winds are forecast to occur in wake of a cold front. Current thinking is that sustained winds of 25-30 mph perhaps locally stronger will occur. Wind gust potential of 45-55 mph and perhaps sporadic bouts of 58+ mph winds will increase after 11am MT and last through around 5pm MT. The limiting factor for critical conditions is that humidity values are currently forecast in the low 20s despite drier air advecting in from the north as temperatures are forecast to remain in the low 50s. With this said, no fire weather product is anticipated at this time. Do have concern for fire spread should one start however due to the winds as GFDI (Grassland Fire Danger Index) is forecast in the low 30s to mid 70s across the area. This along with curing or cured fuels across the area from the freezes over the past few weeks is what is leading to the concern for the fire spread. Lapse rates are also forecast to be unstable around 8.5 c/km which would also lead to the potential for a fire to intensify if one were to develop as well. If doing any activities Saturday that involves sparks or flames use extra caution.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.