textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A low chance for a late afternoon/evening severe storm will persist over the weekend. Wind gusts up to 65 mph and quarter size hail are the main threats.

- Warming trend heading into the weekend, with highs in the upper 90's to lower 100's on Sat-Sun.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Current observations show a large amplitude ridge over much of the Rockies and High Plains. With this, we have clear skies across much of the area. This should allow temperatures to warm into the mid 90s by the afternoon hours. Low pressure continues to develop in the Northern Plains, keeping winds a bit on the breezy side with speeds around 15-25 mph and gusts to 35 mph. This should continue until the inversion sets up during the early evening hours.

Speaking of the evening hours, a few showers and storms are forecast to develop along the Front Range in the upper northwesterly flow and push east towards the area. Dry air near the surface and the upper level subsidence are both forecast to keep storm intensity and coverage on the low side. However, a developing 850mb jet may be able to keep storms going all the way through the area during the night. Currently this has about a 25% chance of occurring. In regards to severe weather, the best chance will be with early storms around the Tri-State border area and Eastern Colorado. Wind gusts up to 65- 70 mph look to be the threat, maybe hail to an inch if a storm is really robust. The severe threat should end fairly quickly, even if storms persist through the area. Either way, the increased cloud cover and dewpoints in the 60s are forecast to keep lows in the 70s for those east of Highway 83. The western portions of the area should cool into the 60s as long as the cloud cover clears.

Tomorrow, the ridge is forecast to slide east and have the ridge axis move over the area. With this and continued southerly flow, temperatures are forecast to reach the 100s. Heat index values may creep to near the mid 100s for locales east of Highway 83. I only have 40% confidence in this being achieved, so elected not to issue a Heat Advisory at this time. The low pressure center should deepen and shift more south into the area. As this happens, winds should lighten to around 5-10 mph and shift to be more from the west/north. This is a good thing as relative humidity is forecast to drop into the teens with the temperatures in the 100s. Henceforth, critical fire weather conditions are not forecast at this time. Later afternoon and evening storms will be possible again as we transition to more of a southwesterly upper pattern. This should bring upper level moisture and maybe a shortwave trough over the area and help spark storms in the west again. Wind gusts up to 65 mph and maybe large hail around an inch are potential hazards, but remain low chance.

Sunday, the upper ridge axis is forecast to shift a bit to the east. This should allow temperatures west of Highway 83 to be a bit cooler in the 90s. Those east of Highway 83 are likely to reach the 100s again. Winds are forecast to remain light around 5-10 mph with the low pressure remaining over the area. Showers and storms should form west of the area and push east again. The coverage may be a bit greater with the upper ridge influence and subsidence weakening. The severe threat remains on the low side, but we may be able to see a few wind gusts of 60-70 mph and hail around an inch.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be fairly consistent with unseasonably hot temperatures and evening storm chances due to our region being in a persistent southwest upper-level flow. Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures are forecast in the 80s to upper 90s. Wednesday through Friday, highs are currently forecast in the high 90s with LREF ensemble members showing at least a 20% chance of high exceeding 100 degrees F for our Kansas and Nebraska counties.

Our persistent southwest upper-level flow will send several embedded shortwaves, bringing precipitation chances each evening Monday through Friday. Monday is looking to be out best chance for precipitation with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) from 30-60%, increasing from east to west. Models are showing a marginally unstable environment with less than 1000 J/Kg of CAPE, around 30 knots of shear and mid-low level lapse rates less than 7 C/km. Model soundings are showing precipitable water (PWAT) values greater than 1 inch and overall skinny CAPE profiles, so heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible with severe or sub- severe storms. Small hail and strong winds could be a concern with stronger storms if they are able to form. Tuesday onward, evening PoPs are around 20% for the area with low confidence in severe weather occurring.

Despite unseasonably hot temperatures, fire weather concerns are minimal through the long term period. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast above 20% for the CWA. Winds will remain overall light with gusts maxing out around 20 mph.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

A brief storm cannot be ruled-out at the very beginning of the 06Z TAF period (~05-08Z), mainly at Goodland. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. SSW to W winds at 8-13 knots will become light and variable by late morning to early afternoon as a surface trough in CO shifts eastward over the Tri-State Area. Light and variable winds are expected to persist through the remainder of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.