textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Significantly cooler weather expected today and Wednesday with an increasing chance of precipitation Wednesday and Thursday.

- Threat for first frost of the season increasing Friday and Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

An upper low will dig into the Great Basin today, move into the Four Corners Wednesday, northeast Colorado Wednesday night, before finally moving into eastern Nebraska on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will continue to move through the area overnight, but will stall out near or just south of Highway 96 later this morning before moving south again late this afternoon. Areas of fog will develop by 12z this morning west of Highway 83 and into northeast Colorado, persisting through about 17z. Low clouds will linger a bit longer, through about 21z, so there will be at least a few hours of afternoon sun. Temperatures will likely struggle to recover in such a short amount of time and high temperatures may only reach the 50s and 60s. Latest HREF probabilities show a 20-40% probability of temperatures greater than 60 north of Interstate 70, 40-60% between Interstate 70 and Highway 96, and likely probabilities south of Highway 96 where temperatures will be warmest. REFS mean is very similar. Tonight, extensive low clouds will return by 06z. Models not showing much in the way of fog development with the lack of radiational cooling, though would not be surprised if patchy fog developed with low temperatures forecast near the dew point. RAP soundings at 12z show cloud thicknesses around 1 km, so may see some drizzle or very light rain develop.

As the upper low approaches, the light rain will begin to expand in coverage Wednesday afternoon, then become widespread Wednesday night with the upper low in northeast Colorado. Temperatures on Wednesday will be limited by the extensive low cloudiness and developing precipitation. HREF means are in the upper 40s to lower 50s and 50th percentiles are in the 40s, which is certainly possible. The rain will continue through Thursday morning followed by a gradual decline Thursday afternoon before ending Thursday night as the upper low moves out. Total 48-hour precipitation for the event ranges from 0.25" to 0.50" generally south of Interstate 70 and 0.50" to 1.00" north of Interstate 70, though some locally higher amounts in excess of 1.00" will be possible north of Interstate 70 (NBM probabilities around 40% for that to happen), though probably will not stray much higher than that with mostly stratiform rain expected. NBM high temperatures on Thursday are optimistically in the upper 50s, though 25th-50th percentiles are in the lower 50s which may be more realistic. Finally, assuming clouds clear enough Thursday night, may see frost or even a light freeze in northeast Colorado by Friday morning as temperatures fall into the 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 244 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Ensemble guidance is quite confident on upper-level troughing Thursday to start the four-day forecast period, placing us in strong southwest flow aloft through Friday morning. A decent jet streak is anticipated to present over our County Warning Area (CWA) on the lee side of the Rossby wave. Furthermore, a surface low southeast of the region should continue moving east across the Central Plains. The pattern likely changes over the course of the day Friday as the trough propagates eastward, bringing us into zonal westerly flow. Moving forward, weak ridging starts to develop Saturday shifting 300- 500mb flow to the northwest. Said ridge should move to the east fairly quickly Sunday, placing the Tri-State area right back in southwest flowing heading into next week. Other than Thursday (10- 25%), Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) is expected to be very low (<5%) through next weekend. There is low chance (25%) for overnight temperatures at or below freezing Friday night. Therefore, frost will be possible.

Overall, below average temperatures are likely as the system aloft ushers in cool/dry air from the northwest. High temperatures upper 50s into the low 60s will be likely Thursday and Friday. This will not last as the shift to southwesterly flow kicks off a warming trend that raises high temps into the mid/upper 60s Saturday as well as mid to upper 70s Sunday. As mentioned in the above section, low confidence (20-30%) exists of temperatures falling below freezing in some locations throughout the CWA Friday night into Saturday morning. Low temperatures in the mid 30s will also be possible Thursday night in some areas near or west of K-27.

Fire weather could be a concern late next week into the weekend, so trends regarding surface winds and relative humidity (RH) will need to be monitored. RH is forecasted to decrease into the upper teens Saturday and Sunday in the eastern Colorado counties. RH values should generally range around 20-40% during the day elsewhere in the CWA. Winds originally come on strong Thursday at 20-35 mph, gusting 30-50 mph from the north. Fridays winds likely will be quite a bit weaker at 10-20 mph, also from the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Saturday and Sunday will be the days to keep a close eye on for potential fire weather. Saturday's winds will vary around the region 15-25 mph from the south and gusting 20-35 mph. To close out the weekend, Sunday's winds should be quite light (5-10 mph) shifting from the southwest to southeast and gusting up to 15 mph.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1210 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

KGLD: VFR conditions are currently in place at KGLD, though stratus is moving southward out of Nebraska, and is expected to drop conditions to IFR by 09Z. Guidance has also shown a risk for patchy fog developing for KGLD between 11 and 15Z, however the rapidly advancing stratus suggests that fog may be prevented from forming. If fog can form, visibilities can drop below a mile. Ceilings are expected to begin lifting a few hours after sunrise, with conditions returning to VFR during the early to mid-afternoon on the 13th. Modest and occasionally gusty winds will remain out of the north to northeast throughout the TAF period.

KMCK: MVFR conditions are expected at KMCK as stratus is beginning to set in. HREF guidance shows about a 25% chance that ceilings may drop into the IFR category at KMCK, though observations show IFR ceilings remaining to the west of the airport. It is unclear exactly when ceilings will begin to lift, though VFR conditions are expected to return sometime during the mid-afternoon on the 13th. Winds are expected to be out of the northeast throughout the TAF period, with some gusts around 20 kts expected during the first half of the period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.