textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm chances continue through the weekend. Severe weather is possible each day, with Saturday having the highest chance. Damaging wind gusts, flooding, and large hail are the main concerns.

- More seasonable temperatures through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 103 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Southwesterly mid level flow is continuing across the area today. A weak surface high is presently across the area which is forecast to erode the morning cloud cover. High temperatures across the area are forecast to be fairly similar to Thursday for most, with the exception of the southeast where they are finally not forecast to exceed 90. Focus then turns to this afternoon where more showers and storms are forecast to develop.

A southward moving boundary may be the initial source of some convection this afternoon near the Colorado/Kansas line. Should this develop then hail up to half dollar size and wind gusts up to 60 mph would be possible. This evening another shortwave is forecast to move across the area and interact with convection ongoing across the Palmer Divide. Wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible due to steep lapse rates and microburst composite around 5 as it moves into eastern Colorado. Storm motions are forecast to be a bit quicker with this than yesterday so eastern Colorado should get into the action a bit more than yesterday before any potential weakening occurs. Rainfall rates are forecast to be a little higher than yesterday with higher CAPE values with this activity, so currently thinking is 1.5 to 2 inches per hour rates. Similar to last night as well another cluster of storms is forecast to develop and move SW to NE across the area. Based on the current orientation of the SW flow think this will be a little further west than what occurred last night and not be as broad and perhaps bit less organized. Highest confidence remains with the eastern Colorado cluster to develop versus the southern one as some guidance still suggests it may not form at all. I'm leaning towards it forming due similar oriented and magnitude of the 700mb jet. Due to the lower confidence the southern cluster developing and Crest Soil Moisture remaining only around 15- 25% am opting to hold off on any Flood Watch for that area. Despite the higher rainfall rates for eastern Colorado am also holding off on any Flood Watches as well due to missing out a lot of the rain yesterday and quicker storm motions than what was realized yesterday.

Rainfall is forecast to continue through the night but wane in intensity. If rainfall does end,, then patchy fog may be possible again Saturday morning. RAP suggests another vorticity maxima developing and moving across the area around 5-6am MT which could be able to form more showers and storms with the potential for high rainfall rates as PWATS remain around 1.75-2 inches. This is currently the only guidance that suggests this but with mid level moisture still remaining high it won't take much of any disturbance to generate more precipation so will maintain at least shower chances through mid morning.

Saturday, high pressure sets up across the eastern southern Plains which sets up for a nice surge of monsoonal moisture for the area. Focus is on another shortwave within the mid level flow which will again be the source for shower and storms development starting across Colorado. Similar to previous days, two areas of storms are forecast to develop. The first is the typical convection off of the Front Range that will again be driven by a shortwave within the flow. The second however looks to be along a cold front from the north during the evening hours. Wind shear is forecast to be 35-45 knots across eastern Colorado along with steep lapse rates in place. Large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete or the strongest cells during the afternoon. If moisture can remain high enough wind critical angles around 100-110, perhaps a small window for a tornado may also develop as well. With the front, large hail may be possible initially but currently think some wind threat may develop especially if any bowing segments occur. Guidance is a bit split on the location of our SW to NE oriented 700mb jet again but additional storms may also form along that across our east and southeast. Our flooding potential may peak Saturday night especially if all of these different areas of rainfall occurs as rainfall rates again are forecast to be high. Looking at different CAM outputs trying to gain some confidence in picking out targets of opportunity for the forecast, yielded differencing combinations of these areas and even some that has very little coverage. RAP mid level moisture is high however which does bring some concern that all of these different areas may pan out which could bring a concerning flooding situation, especially if we get a lot of rainfall tonight. Will need to continue to monitor this situation closely.

Sunday, high pressure broadens out across the souther Plains which blocks our moisture into place. Cloud cover is forecast to remain thick through most if not all of the day helping keep temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Yet another shortwave is forecast to move off of the Rockies. Severe weather may be possible with large hail but currently am leaning towards a damaging wind threat of 60- 70 mph. Will again need to watch for flooding but highly depend on what occurs over today and tomorrow.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Monday, our region is forecast to be in a mostly zonal upper-level flow with a deepening trough developing off the west coast. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s with lows in the 50s to 60s. The southeast county warning area (CWA) could see some showers and thunderstorms Monday. Low confidence in severe weather occurring as instability is overall weak and Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) max out around 20%. Depending on the coverage of precipitation over the weekend, localized flooding may be a concern with any storms that form.

Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be unseasonably warm. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s to 90s for the CWA. We are forecast to remain in a mostly zonal flow until the trough off the west coast moves through our region and disrupts our upper-level flow. There are chances for scattered evening showers and thunderstorms due to embedded shortwave passages. PoPs are around 20% each evening. Wednesday evening looks to be our best chance for precipitation with PoPs maxing out around 40%.

Models are uncertain on the track and evolution of the deepening trough off the west coast, but it is likely to begin moving east towards our region by Thursday. If the trough moves through sooner, it would likely take us out of a zonal pattern into a more northwest flow increasing our precipitation chances. It could also shift more north and put us back into a ridge pattern, which could shift us into a ridge pattern and decrease our precipitation chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 427 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Have nudged up the start time of thunderstorm potential for each terminal by an hour or two based on development already ongoing. Other than that not much has changed. Showers and storms are still forecast to move across most of the area with very heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds possible at each terminal. Remain aware for AMD's as timing looks to become more certain. If rainfall can end in time then patchy fog and some stratus becomes a concern along with spotty redevelopment of showers around 12Z. Do think that cloud cover lasts the majority of the day Saturday with near MVFR ceilings due to the amount of moisture in place.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.