textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong NNW winds will develop in the wake of a cold front early this morning. Sustained winds ~25-40 mph and gusts to 45-55 mph are possible a few hours on either side of sunrise. The strongest winds will occur prior to ~10 am MDT/11 am CDT.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire Tri-State Area this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Overview (Today-Tonight): A robust upper level low centered in vicinity of northwest Wyoming at 07Z this morning will slowly track E across South Dakota today-tonight. An associated lee cyclone (~998 mb) over eastern CO and western KS will weaken as it progresses east across central KS (this morning) and eastern KS (this afternoon).

This Morning: S to SE winds will weaken and then abruptly shift to the NNW during a cold frontal passage a few hours on either side of sunrise, as the aforementioned cyclone progresses eastward into central KS and a colder airmass surges southeastward into the Tri-State Area. A short period of strong NNW winds is expected between ~09-13Z (west) to ~12-16Z (east), when 35-45 knot NNW low-level flow will be present within a shallow mixed layer immediately following the frontal passage and sustained winds ~25-40 mph and gusts ~45-55 mph are expected.

This Afternoon/Tonight: Expect cooler temperatures in the wake of the front, with highs ranging from the upper 50's (west) to mid 60's (east). Mid-level cloud cover / altocumulus may influence diurnal heating to some extent. Vigorous vertical mixing (up to ~11,000 ft AGL) aided/enhanced by strong mid- level (700-500 mb) cold advection on the southern periphery of the upper low progressing east across SD will lead to deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles and efficient downward momentum transport during the mid-late afternoon, when forecast soundings indicate NW to WNW mid-level flow ~25-35 knots (north) to ~20-30 knots (south). Expect sustained winds ~25-35 mph and minimum RH ~15% (north) to ~20-30 mph and 10-15% (south). In collaboration with surrounding offices, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire Tri-State Area this afternoon. Expect overnight lows in the mid 20's to lower 30's.

Sat-Sat night: Modest surface high pressure.. assoc/w synoptic subsidence and surface pressure rises in the wake of the departing upper level low.. will extend southward from the Dakotas to the Southern Plains on Sat. Expect highs in the 60's and minimum RH readings ranging from 15-20% in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties to 20-25% elsewhere. Somewhat breezy (~15-25 mph) NW winds during the late morning and early afternoon will decrease to 10-15 mph by late afternoon, becoming light/variable during the evening and overnight. Expect Sun morning lows in the mid-upper 20's to lower 30's.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 246 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Northwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast to be in place over the region Sunday morning, with a shortwave trough embedded in the flow in Central Canada. This embedded feature is forecast to move southeastward Sunday and Monday, with warmer conditions downstream. High temperatures are currently forecast in the upper-60s to mid-70s across the CWA Sunday afternoon, with relative humidities in the mid to upper-teens. Even so, confidence in a critical fire weather event on Sunday is decreasing, as LREF guidance suggests less than a 15% chance for relative humidities to meet criteria for the hazard across the majority of the forecast region. Winds are also lacking, with the current forecast showing gusts in the 15-20 mph range, and NBM guidance suggesting around a 30% chance or less for gusts to meet critical fire weather criteria across the area. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Sunday afternoon is less than 5%.

The embedded shortwave trough looks to move through the Great Lakes Region Monday, which would allow for a surface high pressure system to move south-southeastward into the United States throughout the day. A cold front out ahead of this surface high is favored to traverse the forecast region during the morning and afternoon hours Monday. Timing of the cold front is a little uncertain, as the NBM 75th-25th percentile max temperature differences are 10-15 degrees across portions of East-Central Colorado and West- Central Kansas. Highs are currently forecast in the upper-50s to lower-70s, though temperatures 5 degrees above or below the current forecast cannot be ruled out at this time. Increasing confidence in cooler temperatures Monday is also increasing the forecasted relative humidities, now into the mid-20s to lower-30s across the CWA. As such, critical fire weather conditions continue to look less probable. While NBM 90th percentile wind gusts are in the 30-45 mph range across the area, they are not enough to overcome the elevated relative humidities. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Monday is also less than 5%.

As the northwesterly upper-level flow begins to break down and move eastward Monday evening, a 500-mb split flow looks to approach the forecast area. There is a slight chance of light precipitation (10- 20%) overnight Monday through Tuesday afternoon as this system moves into the region. Forecasted lows near or below freezing Monday night may allow for wintry precipitation, though would likely transition into rain as temperatures begin to rise Tuesday morning. A southerly return flow may allow warmer conditions to return Tuesday afternoon, though the NBM 75th-25th percentile max temperature spread continues to remain high across much of the CWA at 10-20 degrees. This could be due to ongoing precipitation, or uncertainty regarding when the return flow will set up. Forecast highs are currently in the upper- 60s to lower-70s, though could be 5-10 degrees above or below the current forecast.

Model guidance begins to diverge a bit more by Tuesday evening, specifically regarding how a shortwave trough digging out of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest will evolve. The evolution of this trough is relatively bimodal, where the first solution shows the trough partially combining with another shortwave just off the West Coast United States, and the second solution shows the wave continuing as its own independent system. Either way, warmer conditions appear to be favored Wednesday, with highs forecasted in the upper-70s to lower-80s. However, the timing and intensity of a cold front coming through the forecast area overnight and into Thursday will likely be impacted based on which of these two scenarios occur. The first scenario looks to have a stronger and faster cold front, whereas the second solution evolves slower and weaker. As a result, NBM 75th-25th percentile max temperature differences are 30-40 degrees across much of the forecast area Thursday. Ensemble guidance would seem to favor the first solution, as forecast temperatures are currently in the upper-50s to upper-60s across the CWA instead of the 80s. Additionally, only about 10-20% of LREF solutions are consistent with the second scenario. Cooler conditions appear to continue Friday, with forecast highs in the mid- 50s to lower-60s. Ensemble guidance also begins to favor broad troughing across the Western United States by Wednesday night through the end of the period. As such, the forecast region may experience a period of precipitation going into the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 440 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

GLD: A brief period of borderline VFR-MVFR ceilings is possible around sunrise (~12-14Z). Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. NNW to NW winds at 25-35 knots will prevail through the remainder of the morning. Gusts up to 45-50 knots are expected until ~14Z. NW to WNW winds are expected to decrease to ~20-30 knots for a period during the early afternoon, increasing to 25-35 knots again during the mid-late afternoon and persisting through sunset. NW winds will decrease to ~15 knots late this evening/overnight.

MCK: IFR to MVFR ceilings will affect the McCook terminal for a few hours at the beginning of the TAF period (~12-15Z). Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Light/variable winds will abruptly shift to the NNW and strengthen to 25-35 knots around, or shortly before, sunrise (~12Z) with gusts up to ~45 knots possible for a few hours after sunrise (until ~15Z). NW to WNW winds are expected to decrease to ~20-30 knots for a period during the early afternoon, increasing to 25-35 knots again during the mid-late afternoon and persisting through sunset. NW winds will decrease to ~15 knots late this evening/overnight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016- 027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.