textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-40%) through the start of next week.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

02Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large H5 trough in place across the Pacific NW, with several small amplitude troughs rotating around the larger circulation. With strong ridge in place across the Gulf Coast, broad southwesterly flow aloft was noted across the Central High Plains. At the surface low pressure was observed across southeast Colorado near KPUB with weak stationary front/remnant outflow boundary draped along a Flagler to Culbertson line in the Goodland CWA.

Increasing temperatures and potential heat impacts will be primary concern through the Saturday, followed by potential for diurnally driven thunderstorms.

Overnight through Thursday Night...Southeast Colorado low will lift to the northeast across the CWA through 12Z, shifting winds to the northwest and forcing aforementioned weak frontal zone to the south through the day. Initially, persistent WAA with pockets of weak elevated instability will bring a small threat for an elevated shower/weak thunderstorm to develop along area of WAA in the H7-H6 area. This appears to be rather low probability of initiating and with a 3km deep dry layer to overcome am doubtful that any meaningful precipitation would be able to reach ground even if a storm were to initiate. WAA wanes behind departing low and expect mainly dry conditions to persist through the day. For the afternoon and evening, expect situation similar to this evening with a storm or two potentially firing along/near frontal zone although think cap will remain fairly robust limiting storm formation. Will include some < 10 pops for potential, but confidence in initiation and coverage too low for much higher than that. If a storm can form, will most likely be "pulse" type with strong winds and heavy rains being primary concern.

Friday-Saturday...Pacific NW trough will continue to deepen and amplify across the west coast, with ridge reamplifying to the north as a response. Relatively strong consensus that H5 ridge will build to around 594dm, with hot weather following with it along with fairly STAGNANT flow aloft. Despite amplifying ridge, capping inversion not strong with each afternoon CIN values essentially falling to near zero while Q vector fields indicating overall nearly neutral large scale forcing with dynamic tropopause data suggesting several low amplitude troughs moving through the large scale flow. With weakly forced setup and weak deep layer flow, not very confident in the coverage and location of precipitation chances and think ensemble/consensus based probabilities the best bet at the moment. While we will likely see a few rounds of storms through the start of the weekend, limited instability and weak shear will keep the threat for widespread severe weather low.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 232 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Sunday through early next week, large upper level ridge over the Dakotas and Minnesota starts sliding and amplifying towards the east as the low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest region begins moving east into Southern Canada. This will cause the pattern to shift into zonal flow over the majority of Northern CONUS on Wednesday. Upper level southwesterly flow is still expected until the low pressure system completely moves through transitioning to a more westerly flow. With diurnal heating and deepening embedded shortwave troughs, there is high confidence (75%) that a weak storm could happen Sunday evening over the northern portions of the forecast area. While there is storm supporting mixed layer (ML) CAPE value of 640 J/kg, storm motion will be relatively slow. Heavy rainfall would be the main potential hazard as precipitable water (PWats) is forecast to be 1.45 inches.

Throughout the remainder of the period, chances for afternoon and evening showers do increase as the low pressure continues to move further northeast. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) for Monday evening will be 35-40% in northern Yuma county and taper down to 10% towards Gove county. Tuesday afternoon looks to be similar to Sunday afternoon as a weak cold front will pass through from the low pressure system with ML CAPE value at 840J/kg and a disorganized wind shear profile. There is low to medium confidence (35-40%) that this will happen as there is inconsistency within the guidance. PoPs for Wednesday evening is ranging from 30-35% throughout the entire area, but there is low confidence that this will stay as the pattern changes.

Temperatures are forecast to start above normal with the potential to drop back into seasonal temperatures with Sunday and Monday highs being in the low to mid 90s. There is growing uncertainty with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the potential cold front moving through. NBM 75th to 25th percentiles have a 9 degree difference from the forecasted temperature with potential temperatures dipping further into the upper 70s and low 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1115 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminal locations with winds shifting to more northerly through the overnight hours as weak cold front moves to the south. A period of LLWS will exist between 09 and 12Z, primarily at KMCK as LLJ intensifies and veers to the southwest. While there are some low ( < 5%) chances for thunderstorms both in the overnight hours and again in the afternoon, probabilities are too low for any mention in prevailing forecast.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.