textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot with mid to upper 90s on Sunday and lower 100s on Monday.

- Storm chances Monday afternoon and evening, then again Tuesday night.

- Cooler on Tuesday with highs mainly in the 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Upper ridge centered over the Four Corners will bring dry and hot conditions today and Sunday. A series of disturbances moving from the Pacific northwest along the US/Canada border will flatten the ridge early next week and bring a return of precipitation chances.

The heat will peak on Monday with lower 100s expected. Current forecast shows that parameters fall just shy of both Heat Advisory and Red Flag criteria, but not by much. A surface trough in northeast Colorado will be the focus for afternoon convective initiation. CAMs forecast SBCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg and deep layer shear of around 30 kts. Best forcing will stay well to the north of the area, but there are some weak height falls as the upper trough axis brushes the area. Initiation will occur between 20-00Z in northeast Colorado with some slight variation in the models, then moving east into the remainder of the area Monday evening. The hot, deeply mixed boundary layer will promote DCAPE values of up to 2000 j/kg, suggesting that wind will be primary hazard near thunderstorms. Given several days of antecedent dry conditions, blowing dust will also be possible. Coverage will be isolated to scattered at best given the relatively weak forcing.

On Tuesday, will see more of a zonal flow aloft as the ridge retreats to southern California. This will allow another shortwave to move out of the central Rockies and across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Models show the cold front south of I-70 with post frontal east to northeast winds in most of the area. Temperatures will be cooler with highs mostly in the 80s, perhaps a few 90s near the front depending on ultimate location. RFS suggests convection will develop fairly late in the afternoon along the Front Range and Palmer Divide, then chances spreading eastward Tuesday night. Moderate instability and deep layer shear of 30-40 kts is forecast in the post frontal environment. However, later timing may limit severe threat as instability will be weakening during the evening.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Synoptically, the long term setup remains largely unchanged. The upper level flow will continue to be mainly zonal. As we move into the weekend, Guidance is suggesting the ridge of the western US will begin to re-amplify and propogate to the east. This will begin to transition the flow to be from the northwest. During this period there will be a few shortwaves that will move through the region creating some precipitation chances.

Wednesday's high temperatures look to be the "coolest" of the period, with highs in the 80s to low 90s. A warming trend will begin on Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. By Friday and Saturday, the majority of the CWA will see highs in the upper 90s. Also, some locations could see localized highs reaching triple digits. Winds look to remain calm to breezy throughout mid week to the weekend. Relative humidity values are forecast to mainly stay above 20% except for Friday were eastern Colorado could see values in the high teens to low 20s. Moving to precipitation, there is a 10-20% chance of showers/storms each afternoon and evening as shortwaves move through the CWA.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 442 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and mostly clear skies.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.