textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A gradual decrease in the magnitude of the winds is forecast through the rest of the afternoon. A second front is forecast this evening bringing another brief period of breezy winds gusting up to 40 mph

- Increased fire danger today for most of the area.

- Severe weather returns end of this week through early next week. Main days for severe weather look to be Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1101 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Our surface low for the day has been a bit more broad than anticipated and that lowered the magnitude for the wind for the day. Remnant effects from the low pressure system continues to lead to the potential for wind gusts of 20-30 mph and sustained winds of 15- 20 mph across Hitchcock, Red Willow, Decatur and Norton counties through the afternoon where briefly to locally critical fire weather conditions may end up developing. Guidance has trended with higher mixed dew points for the area which similar to what was mentioned in the previous discussion should help keep humidity above the 15% threshold for multiple hours helping to alleviate the concern for a Red Flag Warning.

This evening, a second cold front is forecast to move through the area. This cold front has more cold air advection associated with it but is displaced from the stronger wind fields. A brief period of wind gusts of 25-40 mph are forecast. The winds should remain low enough to help keep blowing dust potential at bay along with the fact that the strongest winds are forecast to occur after 02Z helping lessen any impacts. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to remain in the low 50s to low 60s overnight but the forecasted increase in wind may help keep them up a little further through around 06-09Z. Overnight, am noticing as well an increase in mid level moisture across portions of the northern counties however with a large area of dry air near the surface virga or sprinkles would be the most likely outcome.

Thursday, a surface high is forecast to be in place across the area during the morning hours leading to lighter winds. A tad cooler than today has high temperatures are forecast to rebound into the low to mid 80s area wide. A tightening pressure gradient across western portions of the area is forecast to bring the return of breezy winds to areas along and west of Highway 25 during the afternoon hours as our 850mb flow begins to increase. However this is also forecast to bring an increases in moisture as well which looks to help minimize any potential fire weather threat. It is worth noting that the RAP is a bit slower on the moisture return by 6 hours. Not completely buying it as the RAP typically does have a drier bias but is something that will need to be watched. If the RAP does pan out then a few hours of elevated fire weather potential could be realized along and west of the Colorado/Kansas state line. Southeasterly winds during this time are forecast around 15-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph. The breezy winds are forecast to continue through the night along with some moisture advection. Due to this and continuous mixing have increased temperatures a few degrees as the entire area is currently forecast to remain in the upper 50s to low 60s for overnight lows.

Friday, the pattern begins to show signals of becoming a bit more active. Troughing across the western CONUS begins to emerge keeping the pressure gradient tight across the area as our moisture advection continues. Have nudged high temperatures down a few degrees due to the continued moisture advection and signal for cloud cover associated with said moisture advection. High temperatures for the day are in the low 80s where the better moisture is forecast to lie into the upper 80s to the west where "drier" air is forecast to be. Some guidance indicates a subtle shortwave moving off of the Rockies during the afternoon hours and an additional 500mb vorticity maxima across the northeastern portion of the area during the afternoon. An increase in the potential for showers and storms is possible during this time frame as well as easterly surface winds would further promote additional upslope forcing to help initation storms. The coverage is still a bit questionable however as most qpf outputs in ensemble guidance is anemic in output and others are a bit more bullish

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Starting the extended period Saturday, troughing breaks down our ridge as moisture continues to pool into the area. This sets the stage for a return for an active pattern for the area. Showers and storms may already be ongoing during the morning hours dependent on how Friday evolves. During the afternoon a low pressure system is forecast to develop across eastern Colorado which looks to be the one of the focuses for initial shower and storm activity. Coverage is forecast to increase through the late afternoon and evening as a cold front across Nebraska works its way slowly into the area and into a more moist air mass. Initial storms may be severe with 2000- 3500 j/kg of MUCAPE (dependent on the moisture) along with steep lapse rates and 0-6km bulk shear of 30-35 knots. Forecast soundings do indict a cap in place with an approaching shortwave and additional subtle 500mb diffluence storms should be able to initiate in this environment. All hazards may be on the table as well especially with any storm interactions as the low level jet begins to increase. Along the cold front any storms are forecast to grow upscale but with sufficient shear in place embedded supercells may be possible. This is forecast to move to the SSE as an eventually MCS with again all hazards possible as 0-3 and 0-1 SRH increase with the LLJ. PWATS are forecast to be ranging from 1.5 to nearly 2 inches suggesting the potential for torrential rainfall with the cluster of storms. Exact locations are still a bit fuzzy however with any relative higher potential as the NAM is noticeably further south withe shortwave versus the ECMWF and GFS which wold have an impact on coverage. If showers and storms Friday night and into Saturday morning linger too long this may also affect the intensity and coverage of Saturday's system as well, so overall a lot still needs to be worked out.

An unsettled pattern continues as well Sunday and into Monday as additional shortwaves move through the area. Moisture currently looks to be a little less than Saturday but storm chances still remain. Towards the latter portion of the extended period guidance indicates another high pressure system developing over the SW CONUS. Dependent on the amplitude of the high pressure and associated ridge some additional storm potential may associate itself with any subtle disturbance along the eastern periphery of the ridge.

Temperatures for the extended period appear to be a bit dependent on the amount of moisture available and if any cloud cover can linger. Current forecast has highs in the 90s on Saturday before falling back down into the upper 70s to mid 80s into the start of the new work week. Would not be surprised if highs come down a few degrees on Saturday if the higher moisture scenarios pan out and may even be considerably cooler than forecast across the east if morning rain and clouds remain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1101 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Breezy winds are forecast to continue before waning this afternoon for GLD as pressure rises behind the front wanes; winds are forecast to continue at MCK however due to closer proximity of a low pressure system. Another front is forecast to move through this evening around 02-04Z bringing another period of 30-35 knot wind gusts. After this then winds begin waning for the rest of the period. Cloud cover is forecast to increase primarily for MCK with a slim chance of virga or sprinkles overnight.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.