textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog is possible this morning and Friday morning. Be alert for patches of dense fog.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska Saturday through Monday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 100s with heat index values in the mid 100s. Limit time outdoors and stay hydrated.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 101 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Current observations show the surface low that sparked the earlier storms becoming less defined and shifting south into the Panhandles region. With this, the storms chances have ended for the night. There is still plenty of cloud cover in the area, with increasing low level cloud cover from the northeast. This suggests an increase in moisture that should keep temperatures steady where they are in the 60s and low 70s. Fog is also beginning to develop and spread from east to west. This may continue through the night, with the current forecast having the low cloud cover and fog across most of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. Dense fog is possible, but looks to either be spotty or confined to Norton/Graham counties as temperatures and dewpoints steady. The eastern areas have the higher chance with the weak moisture advection.

To start Friday morning, most of the area should see fog or cloud cover. This should hinder temperatures from warming to much, likely keeping most of the area in the 60s and 70s through the morning. By about noon, most of the cloud cover and fog should have burned off with slightly drier air advecting in from the north and west. This should allow most of the area to warm into the upper 80s and 90s with sunny skies. With the upper ridge axis moving closer to the area and the surface pressure gradient weakening as the low pressure spreads across the Plains, winds should remain somewhat light around 5 to 15 mph. There is a 5-10% chance for a storm to form around Greeley/Wichita county during the late afternoon hours as there may be a weak low pressure center developing in Southeast Colorado. If so, it may be able to form a weak boundary that could spark a quick pulse storm. With 0-6km shear around 15 kts and overall weak flow, any storm that does manage to form is unlikely to be severe.

Friday night, skies are forecast to be mostly clear and winds remain light. With this, temperatures should cool close to dewpoints again in the 60s. While the winds are forecast to be light, those east of Highway 83 may have a slight easterly component to the winds, which may allow some fog to form with upslope flow.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, which will keep hot, mid summer conditions in place across the Tri-State Area. As we move into next workweek, weather models show the ridge of high pressure gradually flattening and shifting westward toward the Four Corners Region. This retrogression will shift our local upper level wind pattern to the west/northwest, allowing for periodic disturbances to slide along the edge of the ridge and across the High Plains.

Several hot days are in store for the region starting Saturday. Forecast confidence is very high with 25th to 75th percentile max temperatures with only a 3-4 degree spread, with Saturday high temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to low 100s, and Sunday-Monday ranging from the low to mid 100s for the entire area. Areas along and east of US Highway 83 could approach Heat Advisory thresholds, with heat index values topping out around Sunday and Monday. As the ridge retreats westward Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will gradually ease with model variance becoming wider (highs ranging from the low to mid 90s).

A steady tap of moisture wrapping around the upper level high pressure system will keep atmospheric moisture levels unusually high across the region between the 75th and 99th percentile (well above normal) for late July. Saturday into Sunday will be mainly diurnally driven with storms initiating off the higher terrain of the Front Range/Palmer Divide during the afternoon, then drive eastward. Confidence is low that storms will actually make it over to extreme eastern CO counties. Chances for precipitation increase and spread further east as northwest flow aloft sharpens and some instability in the upper flow occurs (shortwave troughs moving through). With high atmospheric moisture, and a lack of mid level wind support leading to likely slow storm movement, heavy rain and perhaps some local minor flooding could occur under persistent / repeating storm cores. Otherwise, severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1103 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the period with winds generally below 8 kts. The main concern is the possibility for ceilings to lower to a few hundred feet before 14Z. For now, the time period of highest concern is between 09-13Z. There is a 35% chance that the low ceilings stay just east of the terminal, keeping conditions at VFR levels.

For KMCK... MVFR/IFR conditions are forecast through about 14-15Z with ceilings already around 1000ft as of 05Z. Ceilings will likely lower at times through the night to around 200-500ft. Fog is also possible, with visibility around 1-3SM. Once the fog and cloud cover clears, VFR conditions with winds under 8kts are forecast to prevail.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for KSZ001>004-014>016-028-029. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.