textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry and breezy through the beginning of the work week.

- Very low (10%) chance for an isolated storm along/east of Highway 283 this afternoon.

- Scattered storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening hours on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe weather potential will be on the low end of the spectrum.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Overview: SW flow aloft will persist over the region, between an amplifying ridge over the MS/TN River Valley and a broad upper level trough/low over the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.

Today-Wednesday: Largely a persistence forecast. Guidance indicates relatively little change in the synoptic pattern during the next 36 hours. Daily lee cyclone development in CO will continue to foster above normal temperatures and breezy S low-level flow during the afternoon and evening hours.

Convection on Tue-Wed: Fairly typical summer-time pattern with SW steering flow, steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate instability and strong DCAPE. In this case, effective deep layer shear will be greatest along and just east of the CO Front Range, where organized convection is possible, though.. confidence is very low with regard to whether or not convection will develop. Convection allowing guidance suggests that small amplitude shortwave energy in SW flow aloft will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS Tuesday afternoon.. and that said activity will progress downstream (northeast) toward southwest and south-central NE during the evening. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are possible with any deep convection.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

***Thursday/Friday***

GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance is in favor of troughing across the Western United States with an upper-level high across the east Thursday morning. This would support southwesterly flow aloft over the County Warning Area (CWA), and a broad surface low across the Central High Plains. Deepening of the surface low due to lee cyclogenesis and warming at 700-mb, along with a pronounced high in the Southeastern United States, would establish moderate to strong southerly flow across the area. Winds are currently forecast to sustain between 10 and 20 kts (12-23 mph), with gusts between 30 and 35 mph possible. Hot conditions are forecast, with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s Thursday afternoon.

Just south of the surface low, winds may be a bit more southwesterly than southerly, which would promote dryer conditions, particularly across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas. Relative humidities (RH) are currently forecast as low as the single- digits Thursday afternoon. Additionally, NBM guidance suggests that this zone has a 40% chance or greater to experience wind gusts that meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions (>25 mph), with as high as a 75% chance in Southwest Kit Carson and Northwest Cheyenne Counties in Colorado. Even so, elevated amounts of precipitation experienced recently may keep critical fire weather conditions to a minimum, depending on how much vegetation can dry out. If significant drying is allowed to occur across this area, then a Red Flag Warning may be needed Thursday afternoon.

Conditions look to be a bit more moist along and east of Kansas Highway 25, where showers and thunderstorms may develop along a dryline. Up to 3000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) may be in place across this area based on LREF guidance, though 0-500mb wind shear is forecast to be around 35 kts on the high end. As such, the strongest thunderstorms are forecast to be marginally severe.

Similar conditions to Thursday are forecast on Friday, with highs in the upper 90s to mid 100s. Dry conditions across East- Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas may continue, with gusts 25-30 mph still possible. However, thunderstorms are not in the forecast across eastern portions of the forecast area Friday. NBM guidance suggests less than a 10% chance for all areas to see greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Friday.

***Saturday/Sunday***

Ensemble guidance supports upper-level troughing from the west moving in overhead sometime Saturday. This would produce northerly surface winds across the forecast region as the associated surface low moves eastward. Conditions may cool slightly, with highs forecast in the low 90s to low 100s Saturday, and low to mid 90s Sunday. Dry conditions may linger across East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas Saturday, with RH still in the low to mid teens in some places. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast again Saturday as well, with LREF guidance suggesting up to 3500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE possible. The same guidance suggests 0-500mb shear may reach 35-40 kts across Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas where storms would form. Some storms may be allowed to become severe under this scenario. As ridging and a surface high moves in on Sunday, dry conditions may continue to diminish, along with the mitigation of thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

GLD: Clear skies and VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. At 0815Z, KGLD velocity data indicates that the 50-60 knot southwesterly low-level jet is rapidly weakening (shifting east of Goodland). With 20-30 knot southerly surface winds ongoing at 0815Z, the window of opportunity for LLWS is rapidly closing. Southerly surface winds will back to the WSW and decrease to 10-15 knots by sunrise. Winds will back to the SW and increase to ~20 knots with gusts to 30 knots by late morning to early afternoon (~18Z) and persist until sunset (~02Z Tue), at which point winds are expected to become light and variable as a low pressure system in CO tracks eastward over far western KS. A short period of breezy S winds and/or southerly LLWS are possible near the end of the 12Z TAF period, late this evening into tonight (~05-09Z Tue), depending on the evolution of the low pressure system.

MCK: Clear skies and VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Current trends suggest that ongoing southwesterly LLWS will end around sunrise (~12Z).. as low-level flow veers to the W and decreases in magnitude. 20-30 knot southerly surface winds will shift to the WSW and decrease to 10-15 knots by sunrise. Light WSW winds will persist through the remainder of the morning. Winds will back to the SW and increase to 13-18 knots with gusts to ~25 knots during the early afternoon (~18Z) and remain breezy until sunset (~02Z Tue), at which point winds are expected to become variable as a low pressure system in CO tracks eastward over portions of western KS and southwest NE. Breezy SSW winds and/or south southwesterly LLWS could return near the end of the 12Z TAF period (late this evening/tonight), however, at this time.. guidance suggests that strong southerly low-level flow will be confined to northwest Kansas.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.