textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend through the weekend and into the start of the work week.

- There is a low chance for a severe storm or two Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats.

- Tuesday's forecast has sustained winds around 30-40 mph for Eastern Colorado. As well as 40% confidence for localized blowing dust that could reduce visibility down to a mile.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1151 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Today, a shortwave trough dipping into a zonal flow caused by a high over the southern CONUS will allow some weak showers throughout the midday and storms to fire this afternoon. As that's happening, temperatures will be able to warm to around 90 today. This will drive RH values in eastern Colorado into the mid teens as winds gust in the 20-30 kts range. We are expecting briefly critical fire weather conditions, but there is only 50% confidence Red Flag criteria will be met.

As far as the storms, we're expecting a dryline to set up around a line from Norton to Tribune, KS and a weak cold front moving in from the northwest. Once these two boundaries near each other, storms will fire off the dryline. A broken line of storms is expected to convect in the 20-23Z time frame before moving to the east. Hazards from these storms would be hail up to 1.25 inches, but likely closer to nickel sized, and wind gusts of 40-60 MPH, the stronger of which may lead to some localized blowing dust. The severe threat looks to end around 1Z with remaining precipitation exiting by 3Z.

Tonight, the cold front looks to stall out over the CWA, diffusing as the night progresses. Temperatures are forecast to cool 50s to low 60s, being kept slightly warmer by lingering cloud cover.

Tomorrow, a 500mb low pushes over the Four Corners region, allowing a low disturbance to form in the lee of the Rockies. This will allow an 850mb Colorado low to form, promoting another round of storms tomorrow afternoon. These storms look to largely remain west of KS 27, focusing on eastern Colorado. Storms look to start forming around 20-22Z tomorrow, lasting until around 5-7Z. There is more CAPE but less shear with these storms, suggesting the hail threat is less, but the threat of a microburst is slightly higher. With that, winds up to 60 MPH would be possible, which could once again cause localized blowing dust.

Tomorrow night, as the lows from the west get closer, southerly flow looks to strengthen, with overnight gusts remaining around the 20 kts mark. This will work to keep overnight temperatures very similar to the previous night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 226 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

For Tuesday, the upper air pattern has a ridge set up over the area. This will bring warmer temperatures and more moisture. The Highs will be in the 80s. Norton and Graham Counties look to be in the high 80s maybe reaching the low 90s. Lows are forecast to be in the mid to high 50s and low 60s. There are some precipation chances for the day. There is about 1000-2000 J/kg CAPE that could be available for the for storm development. Looking at Guidance there is still around a 20-50% chance of seeing more than 0.01" of precipation.

The main concern for Tuesday is the wind. The hazards that may come with it is localized blowing dust for mainly for Yuma, Cheyenne, and Kit Carson counties in Colorado. Guidance is showing the sustained winds to be in the 30-40 mph range. There is still about a 5-10% chance of seeing the gusts reach up to 55 mph. The main timing for the winds still are on track to be in the mid morning and late afternoon/evening hours. The other concern with the winds is blowing dust. Guidance is suggesting that the blowing dust would be in localized dust plumes and mixing out creating poor air quality.

For Wednesday through Friday, the upper pattern begins to change. Currently there is some disagreement with guidance on how a trough over the west coast will move into the region. Some models suggest that the trough will deepen and extend farther south over the NM/TX border, some suggest that will the trough will move through quicker, and others suggest that it will stall out and cut-off.

The temperatures for the three day stretch are very similar with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, and a brief warm up on Friday with the highs in the 80s. Lows stay in the 50s. The winds remain to be from the south/southeast and relative calm in the 5-20 mph range. The CAPE values still are in the 1000 J/kg range for any storm potential.

For this period, there is about a 40-65% chance of exceeding 0.01" for each day. If the ridge maintains its position then the region could see high precipitation chances if the southerly flow stays intact. Guidance is also showing the PWATs in the 0.9 to 1.2" range. The vertical shear is low which may produce slow storms. There could be some localized urban flooding if we see precipation over the three days.

One final note for this period, there is some uncertainty with the movement of this next system. This will affect the storms/showers potential. As we continue to move forward, confidence will be higher on the likely scenario.

Saturday and Sunday, there is a signal of a new system that may bring precipitation chances. The highs remain in the 80s and lows in the 50s. The winds look to remain breezy. One reminder, this is about a week out and this does depend on the how the early system pans out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 353 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the period. Wind will generally be light and variable over the first couple of hours of the period, but then become southerly for the rest of the period. LLWS around 200-400 feet AGL from the south at 40-45 kts is expected overnight at both sites, ending around sunrise. Southerly gusts around 20-25 kts are expected to return tomorrow.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.