textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop over portions of the area Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly in northwest KS and southwest NE. A brief severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail and/or 60 mph wind gusts is possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 309 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have been developing most of the day along the leading edge of the upper low/trough with an associated saturated level in the mid-levels. The showers and storms continue through the early afternoon, but should lift north out of the area by the end of the afternoon. The exception is for Eastern Colorado as the line has been arched in a more southwest to northeast orientation. With additional development and additional instability expected from daytime heating, we are still watching for the possibility of a severe storm in Eastern Colorado. Given the current trend and that earlier showers, most of the instability has been used and we are developing some CIN. This will keep our chances on the very low side of additional storms forming and them becoming severe. If one does become severe, it may produce hail around an inch or wind gusts around 60-70 mph.

This evening and tonight, winds may gust closer to 50 mph initially as some of the low level jet mixes down. Winds should then sustain around 10-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph as the surface low nears the area from the west. Cloud cover is still forecast to stream in from the southwest flow aloft and lead to a mix of cloudy and clear skies. There could be a few showers, that form from some pockets of low to mid-level moisture moving through and the strong low level jet that is forecast to be in place. They would favor counties along the Colorado border. Lows are forecast to be in the 50's and low 60s.

Thursday, the upper trough is forecast to broaden as the main center shifts northeast into Wyoming. As it pushes on, the surface low and a cold front are forecast to move into the area. Starting around sunrise, the low and the front could severe as a focus for storm development with the low level convergence, high level diffluence from strong higher level winds, and moist building up along the frontal boundary. Current forecast starts it near the Colorado border, and then pushes east slowly through NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. This means most of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska could have cloud cover and storms through the day. Early in the day, storms are forecast to be sub-severe (similar to Wednesday) as instability and lapse rates are both forecast to be low. As the day goes on, some sunshine and heating should allow some modest instability around 1000 J/kg to develop along with lapse rates closer to 8 C/km. While this alone generally wouldn't be enough, 0-6km shear is forecast to be around 40-60 kts and help storms maintain themselves. With the shear and storm motions favoring the orientation of the frontal boundary, storms may be able to maintain themselves and become stronger. If a strong enough storm develops, hail to around an inch should be possible. The main inhibitor would be that too many storms may fire off, lowering instability quickly and competing with other storms. A threat that may be present in either case is wind gusts to 60-70 mph. Within the lowest few 100 mbs, winds are forecast to be around 50 kts. While the inversion should inhibit wind gusts from synoptically reaching 60 mph, storms may be able to mix that down. Locales along the Nebraska border where clouds and storms are favored most of the day are forecast to have temperatures in the 60's and low 70s, while the rest of the area is in the mid to upper 70s.

Thursday night, the front is forecast to slowly shift out of the area to the east as the upper trough continues pushing northeast. This could allow storms to linger in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska through the evening and early night hours, but precipitation should end shortly after midnight. Once the front clears, cloud cover should clear and winds calm well behind the front. This will allow the Tri-State border area to cool into the upper 30s while the rest of the area has lows in the 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 309 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Friday and Saturday are forecast to have the area remain under troughing aloft while the main axis swings through the Plains, clearing the area late Saturday. With the drier air mass in place, precipitation chances are currently less than 10% both days. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s and low 70s.

Sunday morning, after the trough axis swings through, a cold and dry air mass is forecast to move over the area. With dewpoints in the 20s, there is a chance that the area could have its first freeze Sunday morning, favoring Eastern Colorado. The cold air shot is forecast to be short lived as slight ridging moves in on the back of the front and brings a slightly warmer air mass. With that, highs should still warm into the 70s underneath partly cloudy skies.

Going into next week, we are still looking at another trough moving through around Mon. Ahead of the trough, it is forecast to develop another system along the Front Range and increase winds with gusts around 25-35 mph. With dry air still in place, we may see critical fire weather conditions Monday ahead of the system with RH around 15% and the stronger winds. Highs are forecast to be in the 60s.

If the trough moves through on time, both Tue/Wed mornings would have lows in the 30s again. With this, more freezing temperatures may impact the area. That being said, the lower temperatures will favor Eastern Colorado again, potentially leaving NW Kansas and SW Nebraska above freezing. If the trough delays more into Tuesday, then Wednesday morning would be the only near freezing morning. The current forecast favors dry air remaining in place with no air mass recovery from repeated upper troughs, keeping precipitation chances below 10%.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Thunderstorms may affect either/both terminals during the early to mid afternoon (~18-22Z). Additional showers/storms may develop during the late afternoon and early evening (~22-03Z).. potentially affecting either/both terminals. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail. S winds at 20-30 knots will persist through the majority of the TAF period. Winds will decrease to 10-15 knots around sunset (~00-01Z Fri) as a lee cyclone in CO progresses eastward across western KS and southwest NE. Winds are expected to shift to the NNW or N and increase to 15-25 knots near the end of the TAF period (03-06Z Fri).. on the western periphery of the eastward advancing /departing lee cyclone.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.