textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions expected, with high temperatures generally in the 80s and low 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Another warm day with afternoon temperatures running around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early October. Overnight temperatures will drop back down into the 50s before climbing back into the 80s tomorrow afternoon...though slightly cooler than today. Light and variable winds behind the front that moved through earlier this morning will keep fire conditions low through the remainder of the day tonight, despite the warm and dry conditions. The aforementioned front will stall then wash out over central Kansas on Wednesday. Surface high pressure will then surge into the Plains and Midwest by Thursday morning behind a shortwave trough moving through northwest flow aloft. This shortwave will be well north of the region, impacting mainly the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, but we will see slightly cooler temperatures work in for Wednesday and Thursday. Weak lee troughing along the Front Range will begin to re-tighten the pressure gradient over Central High Plains resulting in a return to south-southeasterly winds with winds gradually on the increase through Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 101 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Thursday is forecast to start the period with the area under northwest flow aloft. With high pressure at the surface, temperatures should either be slightly cooler in the 70s, or similar to Wednesday in the low 80s. Plenty of sunshine and winds around 5 to 15 mph are forecast underneath the high.

Friday, an upper trough is forecast to push into the Northwestern United States with some slight ridging ahead in the Plains. This should lead to a slightly warmer day with highs likely in the 80s. With low pressure deepening ahead of the upper trough over the High Plains, winds should be a bit stronger around 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. May have to keep an eye out for critical fire weather conditions near the Tri-State border as drier air tries to push in from the west. However, the air is forecast to already be dry enough that we shouldn't see precipitation, even with the advancing features. Saturday should be fairly similar to Friday with the upper trough forecast to stall over the High Plains while deepening in the Western United States. If temperatures are a bit warmer though, critical fire weather conditions could develop for counties along the Colorado border with RH dipping more into the teens.

Sunday and beyond gets a little less clear as there is a fair amount of spread in how deep the upper trough becomes and how quickly it pushes through the area. For now, the forecast has the area cooling going into the beginning of the week with a cold front pushing through. Precipitation chances are also forecast to increase with mid to high level moisture being pulled in from the southwest ahead of the upper trough. If precipitation did occur, it would likely be rain and fairly light with dry low levels.

That all being said, the GEFS and ECMWF ENS both show fairly equal chances for a slower and faster trough progression. The slower progression could lead increased precipitation chances with more time to pull in gulf moisture and have a low sit over the area. Severe weather chances would also be possible. On the flip side, the slower trough would give the area much cooler temperatures. There is even a 10% chance for freezing temperatures and snow. While both of these scenarios would likely be more impactful, for now am sticking with a more median solution which seems to verify more often in situations like this. We'll have to watch and see how this next big system develops.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 508 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.