textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and near average to slightly above average temperatures expected, with high temperatures generally in the 70s and 80s.

- Breezy conditions expected this afternoon, with gusts generally in the 25-40 MPH range from the southwest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 328 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Clear skies, breezy southerly winds, and warm temperatures this afternoon as high pressure remains positioned over much of the Plains and Midwest region. A few ripples moving through northwesterly flow aloft have allowed for some weak lee-side troughing over the Northern High Plains resulting in a tightening of the pressure gradient over western Kansas and extending up through Nebraska. Southerly winds will be strongest this afternoon with gusts of 25-30 mph and temperatures warming into the 80s for most locations. The warmest temperatures will be just ahead of the front in northeast Colorado where temperatures are already reaching into the mid to upper 80s as of early this afternoon. Winds will drop off tonight as high pressure shifts east towards the Ohio River Valley and the gradient starts to relax.

THe question for tomorrow will be how far east the trough and associated front will push, and will be a determining factor as to how warm temperatures may climb. The front may actually push through the forecast area tomorrow morning before washing out. The surface trough will broaden back towards the Front Range as another shortwave moves through the northwesterly flow aloft. Light winds and abundant sunshine will once again allow high temperatures to climb back into the 80s for tomorrow afternoon. Dry conditions look to continue Tuesday and Wednesday as not much in the overall pattern changes. The forecast area between the northern stream mid and upper level flow and the southern stream upper level flow, which is expected to keep conditions dry and temperatures warm.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Synoptically, from Wednesday through next Monday, upper level flow remains from the northwest as the ridge over the Four Corners region stays nearly stationary. Beginning around Friday into Saturday, the ridge looks to weaken and shift east, transitioning upper level flow to come from the west/southwest by early Sunday morning. Guidance indicates a few shortwaves could move through the County Warning Area (CWA) over the weekend.

High temperatures across the Tri-State area should remain in the 70s and 80s through Sunday. Saturday is currently forecast to be the warmest day, with highs in the low to mid 80s across the majority of the area. Overnight lows are forecast to stay in the 50s and 60s. Probabilities of Precipitation (PoPs) remain below 10% through Sunday, though shortwaves moving through the area could increase chances if the shortwaves strengthen.

Winds early in the period should be primarily be southerly at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. From Friday and Saturday through Sunday, breezier afternoons are possible with gusts reaching 30-40 mph. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to stay above 20% for most of the CWA, keeping fire weather concerns low. However, conditions in the Colorado Counties may require monitoring on Saturday, as RH values approach 20% alongside gusts of 25-35 mph. Some guidance suggests a front moving through the northwestern portions of the CWA, which could lower RH values further and increase fire weather potential.

Long range models begin to diverge around Sunday morning. The Canadian-NH, ECMWF-HiRes, and GFS all show an upper level trough, around 550 dam, originating from the Pacific-Northwest and setting up over the rockies near Idaho. As this trough moves through the region, the early part of next week could see the best precipitation chances. However, if the trough progresses slower precipitation chances will shift later into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1113 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.