textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire Tri-State area today. Dry and breezy conditions will allow fires to quickly spread. - A strong cold front moves through early Friday morning will drop temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday. Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well.

- Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO) have been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for Friday night into Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch remains for northwest Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska. Temperatures dropping into the low 20s may damage vegetation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Subtle southwesterly synoptic flow remains across the area as another warm day is in store with highs in the 80s. At the surface a tightening pressure gradient is forecast to lead to wind gusts around 30 mph across eastern portion of the CWA. These conditions are forecast to overlap with humidity in the low to mid teens this afternoon lead to several hours of critical fire weather conditions. As the day goes on a developing low pressure system across the Palmer Divide is also forecast to increase the wind field leading to a period of wind gusts of 25-35 mph across eastern Colorado where humidity values are forecast to be upper single digits where again several hours of critical fire weather conditions are forecast to be occurring. Elsewhere confidence is high in at least 1-2 hours of critical fire weather conditions occurring as mixing heights are forecast to be around 10,000 feet AGL. Forecast soundings also show around 20 knot winds through a large are of the mixing layer. Current thinking is that gusts of 25-30 mph would be fairly sporadic across this area but the potential is there for several hours of potential so will be leaving the Red Flag Warning as inherited despite the lower confidence. Minimal humidity recover is forecast to occur through the evening hours with humidity remaining less than 25% as southwesterly flow remains in place. There is a 60% chance that a corridor of 20-30 mph wind gusts may remain in place as well due to subtle continued mixing ahead of the incoming front so portions of the Red Flag Warning may need to be extended longer.

Onto the cold front now, the front is forecast to enter the north- northwest portions of the area between 12am-3am MT. A sudden shift to the northwest is forecast to occur as sustained winds increase to 20-30 mph and gusts of 40-50 mph are forecast to occur. The strongest wind gusts may not occur until behind the front and when cold air advection increases and pressure rises around 6-9mb over 3 hours occurs as well. When this occurs there is small chance around 10-20% that isolated wind gusts to 60 mph may occur. Similar to the prior discussion there is slim chance that some localized blowing dust reducing visibility to one mile or less occurs driven by how dry the top layer of soil is but lapse rates do not support it.

Cold air advection is forecast to occur through the day Friday with gradually falling temperatures. The warmest temperatures may occur during the late morning hours as temperatures in the afternoon are forecast in the mid 40s across Yuma county to the upper 50s across the southeast counties. With thick cloud cover forecast temperatures may end up being a few degrees cooler than currently forecast.

Some light rain may accompany the front as some light omega and saturated low levels. Friday, lift is forecast to become better especially across western portions of the area where light rain is forecast to be present. As cold air advection continues then some of the precipation is forecast to change over to a rain/snow mix or all snow currently favoring eastern Colorado. Minimal accumulations are currently forecast and it may be hard for any accumulation at all due to the warm soil temperatures. Winds are however forecast to increase gusting 30-40 knots and sustained winds around 20-30 mph. With the latter of that range there is a 20-30% chance that visibilities could drop to 1 mile or less due to a combination of the snow and the wind. Some guidance does indicate that some very small amounts of surface based CAPE could be present which may lead to locally moderate snowfall rates.

Friday night and into Saturday, cold air advection is forecast to continue as temperatures continues to fall. Clouds are forecast to clear out and winds lighten to around 7-10 knots across the area. Confidence in a freeze is high and a hard freeze is moderate to high as well especially the further west you go. The one feature that is keeping me a little hesitant as to how low temperatures can fall is that winds will turn westerly through the night which typically can help temperatures from falling to much. However if winds were to go lighter than currently forecast dew points in the teens are forecast which could allow temperatures to fall even further than forecast due to radiational cooling. Several hours of below 28 degrees are forecast especially across eastern Colorado which will damage vegetation and unprotected waterlines. Due to very high confidence in the several hours of below 28 degrees and 06Z and 12Z guidance indicating near to 100% probability of temperatures less than 28 degrees have opted to upgrade Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO) to a Freeze Warning. No other changes were made to the watch.

Breezy winds are forecast to continue Saturday as well as the area remains in a cooler air mass as highs are currently forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. Very dry air will remain in place again with dew points in the single digits to low teens. With the very low dew points in place humidity is again forecast to fall into the low teens. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are again on the table resulting into more critical fire weather concerns. The winds appear to be a bit weaker than what was being seen yesterday so that does lower confidence in duration of any fire weather conditions currently. Another freeze to potentially hard freeze is forecast as well. Winds are forecast to turn to the southwest Saturday night and into Sunday morning which could help moderate how low temperatures fall as well.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Upper-level ridging looks to be moving into the forecast region by Sunday morning. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance is consistent with upper-level ridging extending through at least Tuesday afternoon, and potentially into the overnight hours. Warm conditions are favored from this pattern, with forecast temperatures in the 70s and lower-80s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. GEFS guidance also provides high confidence in an 850-mb high pressure system across the Southern Plains Sunday, which would enhance southwesterly surface flow across the CWA. Relative humidities (RH) may be very low Sunday, with the forecast showing values in the single-digits nearly everywhere, and possibly in the mid single- digits in portions of Eastern Colorado. Dry conditions continue to look favorable into Monday and Tuesday, though slow eastward progression of the 850-mb high may help moisture creep back into the forecast region. Forecast RH values Monday and Tuesday are in the upper single-digits to low-teens, and low to mid-teens respectively. Critical fire weather conditions may be in play all three days, though forecast wind gusts are either too low or barely meeting criteria in most locations. NBM guidance is currently showing the best opportunities for higher wind gusts on Monday, with a 50-60% chance that gusts meet criteria for critical fire weather across portions of Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas. However, a reasonable maximum for wind gusts in the NBM 90th percentile shows gusts in the 30s across this zone, which would lead to higher potential for the hazard. Still, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed any of these three days is currently in the 5-10% range.

By Wednesday morning, an upper-level trough looks to be moving into or established over the West Coast. Significant timing issues exist regarding this feature's eastward progression, as GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance shows a large amount of spread on either side of the feature. However, similar guidance provides higher confidence that the slow eastward-moving high at 850-mb will be across the Southeastern United States by Wednesday morning, and potentially moving off the southeast coast. As such, air with higher moisture content may begin to make its way into the forecast region Wednesday, with forecast guidance showing a dryline across the Kansas 27 and Kansas 25 Corridors during the afternoon. Dewpoints may reach into the 40s and lower-50s on the moist side of the boundary, which could support thunderstorm potential. However, RH values on the dry side of the boundary are forecast once again in the low to mid-teens, which could support further critical fire weather conditions. This setup for a mixed mode of thunderstorms and fire weather may last into Thursday, depending on how quickly the 500-mb trough from the west moves eastward. A slower progression would provide the best potential for a multi-day severe event, whereas the faster progression may confine severe potential to Wednesday. For Thursday, around 30% of EC, and 10% of GEFS members show a scenario where the surface low has progressed too far east for severe weather to be a major concern, which would correspond to the 500-mb trough having a faster progression. Still, NBM guidance suggests around a 20% chance for precipitation Wednesday afternoon and evening for areas north of I-70, and a 20-25% chance Thursday across most of the CWA. Forecast details regarding the timing, duration, and significance of severe/fire potential will need to be refined as we approach the event.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 516 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through this evening. Overnight, a cold front will shift winds to the northwest with gusts of 30-40 mph for a few hours after frontal passage. Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will also develop shortly after frontal passage and persist into the afternoon before finally lifting to VFR.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. Freeze Warning from midnight Friday night to 8 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ079>081.