textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low (15%) chance for an isolated severe storm late this aft-eve, mainly in Cheyenne County CO and Greeley County KS between 6-10 PM MDT. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary threat.

- Dry conditions and near average temperatures expected over the weekend.

- Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The showers and storms are coming to an end in the area as the main line has pushed well east of the area. This is forecast to allow for the remainder of the early morning hours to have light winds and slowly clearing skies. Temperatures should drop into the 50s in Eastern Colorado and in the 60s for the rest of the area.

The morning and afternoon hours are forecast to be slightly more mild today compared to yesterday with temperatures more in the 80s with slight upper troughing over the Plains. Otherwise, not much is forecast to be different from the prior days with weak flow leading to light and variable winds while mostly sunny skies are expected through the day.

This afternoon and evening, more showers and storms are forecast to develop just west of the area and try and push into the area. However, with ridging forecast to develop aloft and the surface low forecast to be a bit further south, coverage and intensity should be lower. The current forecast favors storms staying south of I-70 and there is a chance that storms miss the area completely if the low shifts too far south or the storms caqn't sustain themselves. If they do sustain, severe weather is possible again, mainly in the form of large hail and wind gusts. The hail should be similar to the last few days, mainly around an inch but potentially up to golf ball in size if a storm can stay isolated enough. Wind gusts are forecast to be more in the 40-60 mph range with a max around 70 mph and are more likely if storms cluster. Either way, this would likely be a quick event with storms entering Kit Carson and Cheyenne [CO] counties around 4-5pm MT, moving southeast, and exiting the area around Wichita/Logan/Gove counties around 7-10pm CT. This is all dependent on storms making it into the area in the first place.

Once any storms clear the area, partly cloudy skies with light winds is forecast across the area. With this temperatures are forecast to drop into the 60s again, with 50s possible in Eastern Colorado.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 129 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a 500-mb ridge will be overhead throughout the long term forecast period. High temperatures are forecast to be primarily in the lower 90s through Wednesday afternoon. Relative humidities (RH) look to steadily drop throughout the period, but are forecast to remain above 20% across the area. This would keep heat index values in the upper 80s and lower 90s at least through Wednesday afternoon, well below the threshold for a Heat Advisory (Heat Index greater than 105 degrees).

Forecast guidance shows high temperatures highest toward the end of next week, in the mid 90s Thursday and Friday. This may be linked to a stronger upper-level trough beginning to break down the longwave ridge across the Western United States. However, there is uncertainty regarding the strength and track of this trough, in addition to whether it will actually be successful in breaking down the ridge. If this feature can break down the ridge a bit and move more into the Northern United States, increased southerly flow ahead of a surface low may allow for the slight temperature increase. This could aid in RH values dropping into the lower 20s across portions of East-Central Colorado. While this is above critical fire weather criteria, it will be something to keep an eye on, as fuels have remained relatively dry across this zone despite recent rainfall.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. Cloud cover, if any, would likely be confined to transient wisps of cirrus at or above 20,000 ft AGL. Light (5-10 knot) northerly to easterly or variable winds this afternoon and tonight will become southeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots during the late morning to early afternoon, near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.