textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning for the entire area today with wind gusts up to 55 mph across Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS) and northern Kit Carson counties.

- Red Flag Warning in effect for Yuma and Kit Carson counties on Friday.

- Northerly wind gusts at or above 60 mph are possible in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage early Sunday morning. Winds may continue to be strong through the day Sunday, with small potential for light snow to occur at same time.

- Big swings in temperature expected this week. Temperatures on Sunday will fall nearly 50 degrees from Saturday, with temperatures rebounding into the upper 80s by next Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 158 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

16Z water vapor imagery/RAP analysis indicated broad northwesterly flow across the outlook area, with potent short wave trough moving through the Dakotas leading to an area of intense winds across eastern Wyoming and the panhandle of Nebraska. At the surface, trough axis was draped along the KS/CO border extending into the northern Plains, marking a small area of light winds at the moment.

Fire weather will remain the most pressing concern through Saturday, followed by impacts associated with strong cold front Saturday night.

For the rest of the afternoon, lull in winds near sfc trough will gradually shift to the south allowing for stronger winds from the northwest into the area to move into area, with strongest winds occurring north of the Kansas and Colorado border. Current Red Flag Warning is on track and do not expect the strongest winds to make it as far south as the GLD CWA.

Once the sun sets, expect to winds to decouple fairly quickly as winds gradually become southerly overnight as surface low begin to develop across southeast Wyoming. Overall aside from winds changing direction, little in the way of impactful weather is anticipated overnight.

For Friday...Aforementioned surface trough will continue to deepen as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Most of the area will see a break from the winds, surface trough will shift towards the KS/CO border. To the west of this trough, westerly winds will once again pick up to 15 to 25 mph and will coincide with the driest conditions. This will once again set up a scenario where fire weather conditions will be critical, although over a much smaller area than today.

Saturday-Saturday Night... Period of much more active weather will begin. Ahead of an approaching strong cold front a warm and dry airmass will overspread the entire winds with generally westerly flow at the surface. Another potential critical fire weather day looks to be in the works here, but confidence in widespread strong winds lowers confidence below what is needed for a watch. Bigger concern for the period will be when strong cold front begins to sweep across the region. Current data supports the surge of cold air arriving overnight, with 10+mb 3 hour pressure changes expected as it passes. With intense winds behind the front and an isallobaric enhancement would suggest threat for winds gusting over 60 mph as it passes. With strong cold front arriving after a period of very dry conditions am a bit worried that a more organized area of blowing dust could develop. However with surge expected between 06 and 12Z, have questions if soil will remain primed to get lofted as dew/condensation forms. Potential rain/snow along elevated frontal zone also lowers confidence in a significant dust threat for the frontal passage.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 158 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Will be a somewhat dramatic swing in conditions on Sunday with strong cold front sweeping through the area during the early morning hours. Confidence is high that a major change in airmass will occur on Sunday, with temperatures likely 40 to 50 degrees colder than Saturday. As would be expected with a front of this magnitude, winds will respond in kind as pressure gradient tightens in response to developing low. Quick look at deterministic soundings suggest that winds will be at our near high wind warning conditions on Sunday with even bias corrected fields indicating significant wind across region. With this potential, combined with likely surge of intense winds as initial front passes, High Wind Watch may become needed as system nears. Further complicating the matter, vertical profiles suggest differential temperature advection will create weak conditional instability leading to potential snow showers/squalls occurring coincident with the wind. While confidence not great in this scenario, there does appear to be a low (15%) threat for blowing snow to be an issue on Sunday.

Just as fast as the pattern shifts to a cold/snowy one, it will begin to flip back to a prevailing warm and dry one. While it will not be as rapid as the change this weekend, GEFS ensemble mean supports development of an anomalously strong H5 ridge developing over the southern and central Rockies. As this ridge builds, warm and dry weather will come with it. Temperatures reaching the upper 80s to even near 90 by next Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR Conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with main concern being wind direction and speed. A brief lull in winds will end by 20 UTC as well mixed boundary layer spreads over the region with winds gusting to around 40kts at KMCK. May see some reduced visibilities due to dust at MCK, but with most likely source regions a considerable distance away and high mixing heights think any dust will be diluted enough to not reduce flight categories. Winds will decrease in the evening, becoming light and variable. Winds will become established out of the south and begin to increase towards the 15 to 20kt range towards 18z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday for COZ252-253. NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.