textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week. The probability of severe weather will be low.

- Temperatures gradually warming back to above normal by the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Upper ridge centered over the southeast CONUS today will gradually work its way back westward to Texas by the end of the period. This position will keep the Central High Plains under southwest flow. Embedded disturbances will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly at night, which develop in southeast Colorado and the Front Range and move northeast with the mean flow. Instability and shear forecasts remain weak through the period, with generally 500-1000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 20 kts of 0-500mb shear, peaking in the afternoon to early evening. Those parameters should keep the risk of severe weather low. 0-6 km mean winds are generally in the 20-30 kt range, so storms will be moving and not expecting any flooding concerns despite repeated rounds of mostly beneficial rainfall.

For tonight, a southerly low level jet at around 20 kts produces weak isentropic lift at 315 K, generally north of Interstate 70, after 06z through about 15z Wednesday morning. Scattered light showers may develop during that time with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, but MUCAPE is less than 500 j/kg. Low clouds will overspread the area after 02z and persist through the night, gradually dissipating through 18z Wednesday. Patchy fog will be possible towards sunrise east of Highway 23/83 where an easterly wind component remains. Wednesday afternoon, scattered storms will develop in southeast Colorado after 21z possibly reaching the far southwest corner of the area by 00z (Cheyenne County Colorado, Greeley and Wichita counties), then scattered showers and storms continuing northeast into the area Wednesday night. Locally strong wind gust of up to 50 mph may accompany stronger storms, but the probability of severe weather is low. The pattern repeats for Thursday and Friday, though storms may develop earlier Friday afternoon.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal on Wednesday with upper 70s to lower 80s, warming to above normal on Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower 80s. Coolest temperatures will be tonight, ranging from the upper 40s in northeast Colorado to the upper 50s in north central Kansas.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 234 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

On Friday, an upper level low-pressure system over the Middle Rockies will be sliding towards the east over northern CONUS that will help bring in a cold front overnight and into Saturday morning. Sunday onward, there is some uncertainty about the upper-level ridging over the U.S. and Canadian border. On Monday, guidance is still uncertain with the ridging to the north, but there is consistency that embedded shortwave troughs would be going through the area. This is forecast to bring cooler temperatures and slight chances for showers. Temperatures Friday will be the warmest during the period with afternoon highs being in the mid to upper 80s. From Saturday onward, temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s as the cold front moves in and a possible secondary cold front Monday. There is medium confidence (40-55%) that temperatures would remain in the 70s.

Showers are also possible with the uncertainty of the upper- level pattern. As the cold front moves through Friday night and into Saturday morning, there is high confidence (75%) for overnight rain. However, there is some uncertainty with the timing of the cold front as deterministic guidance shows the front being further west than ensemble guidance.

On Sunday morning, with the confidence in the upper-level pattern starting to deteriorate, confidence for showers also begins to decrease heavily (75% to 30%) and would likely occur in the early morning hours. On Monday, there could be some showers favoring south of I-70 as possible embedded shortwave troughs could move through the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1102 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Ceilings have improved across the region with VFR expected to prevail through this afternoon and gradually diminishing winds. Tonight, MVFR ceilings will return between 03z-05z at both KGLD and KMCK. Towards sunrise, a brief period of IFR is possible at KMCK with light showers and patchy fog developing. Ceilings will slowly improve to VFR at both locations through mid to late Wednesday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.