textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms capable of producing 2 inch diameter hail and 70 mph wind gusts are possible during the afternoon and evening hours today through Wednesday.

- Locations that received heavy rain during the past 24-48 hours are more prone to experience flash flooding, should additional heavy rain occur this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Overview: WNW flow aloft will prevail over the Tri-State Area.. on the NNE periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over northern Mexico, the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains.

Today and Tuesday: With little change in the synoptic pattern, expect sensible weather conditions (and severe weather potential) similar to yesterday. Modest low-level convergence and light (10-20 mph) ESE-SSE upslope flow are expected to aid/ facilitate diurnal convective development in the typical geographically favored areas (e.g. Palmer Divide, Cheyenne Ridge). With right-mover motion from the NW and N, cyclonic updrafts emanating from the Palmer Divide will likely be confined to eastern CO. While increasing convective inhibition (cap strength) with eastern extent from the CO-KS border will tend to suppress development over northwest KS, downstream propagation *into* northwest KS is certainly possible. Low confidence in convective coverage.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

***Tuesday-Wednesday***

A 500-mb trough looks to be moving across the Northern United States Tuesday, with a modest 40-55 kt jet streak at its base. The trough axis looks to be moving through the area throughout the day. At the same time, GEFS 850-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests the presence of a low in Colorado. Southerly flow from the low in Colorado would meet northerly flow underneath the trough axis, creating a convergence zone across the forecast region. Thunderstorms may be possible with this setup. LREF guidance suggests that up to 3000 J/kg of surface- based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) may be in place. In addition, GFS and EC model soundings suggest that 0-6 km vertical shear around 40-50 kts is reasonably possible due to the 500-mb jet streak. This may allow thunderstorms to become severe, with primary hazards including high wind and large hail. This pattern may linger into Wednesday, which may continue to promote severe thunderstorms with similar hazards. Confidence in severe weather occurring is highest on Tuesday around 15-20%.

***Thursday-Sunday***

Ridging looks to begin moving in overhead sometime Thursday. Shortwave troughs embedded in the ridge may allow thunderstorms to stick around on Thursday and possibly Friday, though chances begin to decrease dramatically after Thursday. The entire County Warning Area (CWA) has a 50-70% chance of seeing greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation from Thursday's activity based on NBM 24-hr precipitation guidance. Whether or not these storms are allowed to become severe depends on the positioning and strength of the 500-mb jet. LREF 90th percentile guidance suggests that winds at 500-mb could still reach 30-40 kts, though it appears likely that the jet will be weaker on Thursday than that of Tuesday and Wednesday. If this is the case, the severe potential could be a bit lower Thursday. Confidence in severe weather occurring Thursday is down to about 5-10%.

By Friday, all areas across the forecast region have a 1 in 3 chance or less to experience greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation according to NBM 24-hr precipitation guidance. This decreases to less than 10% Saturday and Sunday. In addition, as troughing sets up across the West Coast during the weekend, temperatures look to begin warming again. Highs are forecast in the mid 80s to lower 90s on Friday, and low to upper 90s on Saturday and Sunday. As this heating occurs and moisture moves off to the east, dry conditions look to set in. Forecast guidance suggests that portions of East-Central Colorado may see relative humidities (RH) drop into the low to mid teens Saturday and Sunday. Wind gusts may be allowed to reach the 25 to 30 mph range across this zone, which could implicate critical fire weather as a concern. However, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed either day is around 5% or less, as both RH values and wind gusts are just meeting criteria for the hazard. Additionally, precipitation over the next several days may help counter the incoming dry conditions. Even so, this development will be something to keep an eye on as we approach the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

GLD: IFR to LIFR conditions associated with fog and/or stratus are expected to persist through sunrise, though.. intermittent breaks with MVFR conditions are possible. Conditions will improve to MVFR during the late morning (~15-18Z) with further improvement to VFR by early afternoon, when low ceilings are expected to lift and scatter. Isolated thunderstorms anticipated to develop in Colorado could potentially affect the Goodland terminal during the late afternoon (~22-02Z). At this time, confidence in thunderstorm coverage/extent is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 06Z TAF issuance. Light/variable winds will become southeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots during the afternoon.

MCK: MVFR to LIFR conditions associated with fog and/or stratus are expected to persist through sunrise. Conditions will improve to MVFR during the late morning (~15-18Z) with further improvement to VFR during the early-mid afternoon, when low ceilings are expected to lift and scatter. VFR conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period. Light/variable winds will become southeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots during the afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Over the next week, we are looking at near daily chances of convection as PWATs range around 0.9-1.75 inch. We are also expecting 0C level to be around 15,000 feet AGL, leading to deep melting layers, promoting efficient rainfall producing storms.

Recent precipitation totals (preliminary) along a line from Trenton, NE to Grinnell, KS range from 3-6 inches. Additionally, areas in southern Rawlins and northern Thomas county range around 2.5-5 inches. These locations will be at the highest risk for additional flooding and flash flooding to occur this afternoon and evening.

A Flood Watch has not been issued due to a lack of confidence that tonight's storms will produce more than 1-1.5 inches of rain. Guidance is also highlighting areas to the east of the saturated locations, reducing the potential for compounding flood risks. Current confidence in additional flash flooding occurring this afternoon and evening is around 30-40%.

Through Friday, there are returning chances of precipitation across the CWA. If storms keep passing over the same, saturated areas, flooding becomes a reoccurring risk.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.