textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A severe storm can't be ruled out this evening, mainly in Red Willow and Norton counties between 7 PM and Midnight CDT. Damaging winds up to 70 mph are the primary hazard.

- Storms in central Nebraska could send outflow south toward the I-70 corridor late this evening, leading to a short period of strong N winds. Low confidence scenario.

- Breezy and little cooler Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 440 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Synoptic Overview: Modest unidirectional/westerly flow aloft over the Tri-State Area (today) will transition to NW flow aloft Fri-Fri night as a pronounced upper level ridge over the Southern Plains migrates westward over the Desert Southwest.

Feature of Interest: Shortwave energy over north-central Wyoming at 20Z (reference SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort or 700-400 mb DPVA) will track east across South Dakota tonight, then dig southeast into Iowa Fri-Fri night.

Through Tonight: Widespread convection (and an associated mesoscale convective vortex) tracked east across western KS early this morning and, as of 22Z, convective inhibition persists across much of the area, east of Hwy 27, in particular.. where diurnal Cu is absent. Diurnal Cu has, thus far, been confined to a modest low-level convergence zone extending northeastward from Cheyenne County, CO to Cheyenne County, KS. While isolated thunderstorms have developed on the higher terrain in western Cheyenne County, CO.. further east, in Cheyenne County, KS.. towering Cu has repeatedly failed to produce lightning. Current/recent runs of the HRRR suggest that this trend will persist, i.e. isolated thunderstorms will be confined to southern portions of the convergence zone in CO, where effective deep layer shear is weak (~20 KT) and updrafts are likely to diminish/dissipate with eastern extent across the CO-KS border, where environmental conditions are less supportive (diurnal Cu has been suppressed) and convective inhibition will rapidly increase as insolation wanes / sunset approaches. Thus far, robust convection has entirely been confined to northern Nebraska (north of I-80), in close vicinity to upper forcing / DPVA with the aforementioned feature of interest. With the above in mind, severe weather potential in the Goodland CWA should largely (if not entirely) be a function of upstream convection in northern-central Nebraska, where strong instability and 25-35 KT effective deep layer shear are supportive of supercells, right-mover motion is from the NW or NNW (~330 @ 20 KT) and cyclonic supercells could potentially deviate SSE into portions of southwest Nebraska (Red Willow County) later this evening. Current and recent runs of the HRRR suggest that discrete supercells in north-central Nebraska will grow upscale/ transition into a linear MCS that progresses southeast through north-central and northeast KS (east of the Goodland CWA) late this evening into Fri morning. If linear/upscale growth occurs early enough, robust outflow could potentially surge southward into the Goodland CWA, leading to a short period of strong/severe northerly winds.

Fri-Fri night: The Tri-State Area will be on the subsident western periphery of shortwave energy digging SE from South Dakota into Iowa, where modest surface pressure rises and low- level cold advection suggests dry conditions and relatively cooler temperatures.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Synoptically for the Long Term period, on Saturday there is a ridge that will begin to transition to more zonal flow for the rest of the period. Throughout the week there will be some embedded shortwave disturbances moving through that will create some precipitation chances for the County Warning Area (CWA).

Overall for the Long Term forecast, it is looking to be hot, dry, and windy. High temperatures for this period are forecast to be in the high 90s, with Monday potentially reaching the low 100s. Winds look to be breezy to gusty and mainly form the south to east for the majority of the CWA as shortwaves move through the region.

Monday does have some fire weather concerns. Monday's highs are forecast to be in the high 90s to low 100s for the majority of the CWA. Relative humidity values are looking to be in the high teens to low 20s, particularly for areas west of KS Hwy 27. Looking at the wind gusts, they are currently forecast to be in the range of 20-40 mph for the majority of the CWA. Moving to GFDI, values mainly for Eastern Colorado are in the 30-59, which would promote very high fire growth. Another concern is the threat of dry lightning from any thunderstorms that develop over Eastern Colorado. With these conditions elevated fire weather is possible; however there are some discrepancies regarding the timing of when all the ingredients for elevated criteria will be met at the same time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 440 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

GLD: A thunderstorm cannot be ruled-out near the Goodland terminal early this evening (00-03Z), however, confidence in thunderstorm development and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 00Z TAF issuance. Light southerly or variable winds will prevail through the afternoon. Winds will shift to the N and increase to 12-17 knots this evening and overnight. N winds will further increase to 15-25 knots shortly after sunrise and remain breezy through the duration of the TAF period.

MCK: Thunderstorms in north-central Nebraska could potentially affect the McCook terminal this evening into tonight (02-07Z), though.. current and recent high-res guidance suggests that storms may be confined north and east of MCK. Will continue to mention storm potential with a PROB30 group. Light SE or variable winds will prevail through the afternoon. Winds will shift to the N and increase to 10-15 knots this evening and overnight. N winds will further increase to 15-25 knots shortly after sunrise and remain breezy through the duration of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.