textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued the morning for parts of the area. Visibilities may drop to 1/4 mile and slick patches may form from freezing fog.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in CO and Greeley county in Kansas. Dry and breezy conditions may lead to rapid fire growth

- A few storms could develop late this afternoon into the overnight hours, mainly along and east of Highway 83. A severe thunderstorm capable of producing large hail and damaging winds is possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 915 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Dense Fog Advisory was cancelled ~16 UTC. Visibilities have rapidly improved and will continue to improve as the morning progresses.

Today: An upper level trough presently situated over the Intermountain West will slowly track E across the 4-Corners tonight. An associated lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado today, as the aforementioned upper trough advances east toward the 4-Corners. S to SSW low-level flow will strengthen over central and western KS-NE this afternoon, as the MSLP-850 mb height gradient modestly tightens on the eastern periphery of the developing lee cyclone. A sharp, north-south or SSW-NNE oriented dryline will evolve in vicinity of the CO-KS border. With the parent upper trough located well upstream of the region and the developing lee cyclone likely to be anchored over CO.. expect little in the way of eastward advancement with regard to the dryline this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties (CO) and Greeley County, KS.. where breezy SSW-SW winds and very low RH behind the dryline will foster critical fire weather conditions. In eastern CO, where the MSLP gradient will be weak in vicinity of the low, wind gusts may struggle to exceed 25 mph, though.. downward momentum transport assoc/w deep vertical mixing could assist to some degree (~25 knot flow at the top of the mixed layer). In western KS, where relatively stronger (25-35 knot) low-level flow will be present and breezy S to SW winds are most likely, the location/eastern extent of the dryline will be the determining factor w/regard to whether or not critical fire weather conditions are observed.

Tonight: A strengthening southerly nocturnal low-level jet will advect relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer (700-500 mb lapse rates ~8 C/km) this evening and overnight.. resulting in marginal to moderate nocturnal destabilization (~1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) over portions of northwest KS. Upper level forcing assoc/w the upper level trough (approaching the 4-Corners) will remain well west/ upstream of the Tri-State Area. Virtually all guidance indicates that low-level forcing, in of itself, will be insufficient to overcome a pronounced cap in place over the region. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of high- resolution guidance are consistent with this line of thinking (i.e. none indicate convective development in or near the Goodland CWA). Expect lows ranging from the lower-mid 30's (northeast CO) to mid-upper 40's (east of Hwy 283).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 302 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

This morning, our next 850 mb low coming out of the Rockies. Combined with the exiting ridge, moist southerly advection into the High Plains is occurring and will increase throughout the late morning. As of 10Z, we're seeing some fog move into the area. REFS 25th seems to be handling this the best so far. This shows the fog entering the southeastern counties, and potentially into the central CWA. Higher confidence exits for the southeastern counties, so a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for this area until 17Z.

Today is shaping up to be an interesting and potentially hazardous day. The moisture advection is forecast to remain out of Colorado, creating a dryline somewhere between KS highway 25 and 27. Temperatures during the day are expected to climb into the mid 70s across the entire area.

We'll cover the dry sector first. RH values will tank in the dry sector, especially in Kit Carson, Cheyenne, and Greeley counties where RH values will drop into the low teens. For eastern Colorado, occasional gusts around 23 kts are expected. Greeley county is forecast to see winds around 30 kts as the dryline will be nearby. We've gone ahead and upgraded these counties to a Red Flag Warning, and Sherman and Wallace have been dropped from the Fire Weather Watch because the critical winds and RH do not look to occur at the same time or place.

On the moist side of the dryline, RH values are forecast to remain above 20-40% as southerly winds gust up around 25-35 kts. While there is effectively no risk of fire weather concerns, there is a 5% chance of plumes of blowing dust. The dust threat is very limited because areas in the eastern and southeastern CWA, which are forecast to see the strongest winds, are also forecast to have lapse rates that do not support dust lofting. Any dust that gets blown would likely be confined to source regions (i.e. bare fields).

There is also a threat of severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. Most CAMs are showing the vast majority of the convection will remain southeast of the CWA. This seems to be largely based on a lack of good forcing. However, there is still a 30-50% chance we'll have enough forcing from the incoming 500 mb trough and the dryline that will cause convection to initiate in the northeastern CWA between 22-3Z. 0-6Z would be the most likely time severe convection occurs. The first wave of convection will likely be exiting the area around 7-12Z as a cold front enters the area from the north-northwest. This could front will bring in additional precipitation, but with no severe potential. This wave of precipitation looks to linger until Friday evening.

As far as potential hazards go from the first wave of convection, hail is the main threat, with winds as a secondary, and flooding is a minor concern, but we cannot rule out a brief tornado threat. RAP, NAM, NAMNest, and REFS sounding are fairly similar, mainly differing in what the low level moisture and temperatures will be, but we'll be focusing on REFS soundings as they's a good middle ground. Around Norton, KS at 3Z, there is a 750 mb cap, creating about -50 J/kg of surface CIN. However, MLCAPE sits around 200 J/kg with CIN around - 200, and MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and CIN of -120. This certainly lowers the potential for storms to form, but if storms can fire, they would likely be elevated storms, with a slim chance for a storm to be close to the surface. Shear is in ample supply. EBWD, 0-1, and 0-3 km shear around 30-40 kts.

With all those parameters in mind, hail, if it does form, would likely be in the 0.75-1 inch range, but could be up to 1.5 inches. The wind threat is not great for dry or wet microbursts, and is only slightly better for a QLCS threat. Either way, most likely wind threat will be in the 30-45 kts range, with a maximum potential up to 50 kts. The flooding risk would really only occur if high precipitation cells are able to train over a location for 2+ hours, which has a 5% chance of occurring. As far as the tornado threat, while the numerical parameters are being met for a tornado, the low level lapse rates keeps a lid on this threat. As it stands, there is roughly a 5-15% chance of a severe thunderstorm occurring in the CWA later today.

The second wave of precipitation will last throughout most of the day Friday, and will mainly fall as rain. In eastern Colorado, there is a 20% chance some snow or a brief wintry mix occurs around sunrise. The bulk of the precipitation will occur along and north of I-70 and will be exiting the CWA around 0Z Friday evening.

Winds behind the cold front will be fairly strong, with northerly gusts around 30-40 kts possible in eastern Colorado. Temperatures will stay fairly cool tomorrow. In the northwestern CWA, highs will struggle to get out of the 30s, but for the southern and southeastern CWA, temperatures will warm to around 60.

Friday night, as the 500 mb low exits, a weak ridge will build in. This will allow the sky to start clearing out and allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 312 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Saturday, we remain in a southwest upper level flow with a developing low off the coast of Baja California. Temperatures cool in the wake of a cold frontal passage with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s to 30s. Southwest winds are forecast to be mild overall, but gusts around 20 mph are possible Saturday afternoon for our Colorado counties. Relative humidity (RH) values are in the upper teens to 20s for the county warning area (CWA). Even if southwest winds further lower RH values, mild winds will likely remain the limiting factor for fire weather concerns. NBM 75th percentile for 10m winds are around 25 mph, so critical fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

A warming trend begins Sunday with high temperatures forecast in the 60s to 70s. Winds aloft are forecast to be relatively weak through the column and no jet streak is overhead of our region. This supports mild southwest winds for a majority of the CWA with gusts around 15 mph possible. Yuma county is the exception with westerly downsloping winds gusting around 25 mph forecast. RH values are forecast in the teens for the entire CWA, so Yuma county will likely have a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon.

Conditions warm further Monday with highs forecast in the 70s as our region is under a mostly zonal flow with the previously mentioned low over Baja California. RH values remain in the teens for the CWA, but winds remain fairly mild for the region. Gusts are forecast around 20 mph. If our upper level flow becomes more active or the low over Baja California changes track, we could see higher winds increasing concerns for fire weather conditions.

Tuesday, conditions cool in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Highs are forecast in the 60s to low 70s. RH values begin to recover from our persistent southwest/west winds. RH values are forecast in the high teens to 20s. Winds gusts from 20-35 mph are possible, so fire weather conditions could be a concern if RH values do not recover as much as forecast. RH values may also end up lower than currently forecast if little to no precipitation occurs from last week's system.

Another cold front is forecast to pass through the region Tuesday after into Wednesday. We see an uptick in Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) overnight as well. PoPs are around 40-50% for the CWA with rain or a wintry mix after sundown forecast. Thunderstorms may not be out of the question due to the ECMWF showing MUCAPE over our area. Precipitation chances taper off Wednesday morning with PoPs decreasing to below 15% by the afternoon. High temperatures are forecast in the 50s in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Fire weather could be a concern if precipitation does not occur for our area due to RH values in the upper teens and wind gusts from 20-40 mph possible.

Thursday is beginning to show signs of a higher impact weather day. Models are showing southwest/west winds with gusts up to 45 mph possible, elevated Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values, and RH values in the teens. These will likely change with this being the end of the forecast period, but something to monitor as the week progresses.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 930 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

GLD: Now that morning fog/stratus has scattered and lifted.. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. ~10-20 knot S to SW winds will become variable this evening and overnight, as a low pressure system tracks eastward over northwest KS. Winds will shift to the N and increase to 15-20 knots near the end of the TAF period (~12-18Z Fri).. as the surface low progresses eastward into central KS.

MCK: Now that morning fog/stratus has scattered and lifted, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon. IFR ceilings may return this evening and overnight. 10-20 knot S winds will prevail this afternoon and evening.. becoming variable early (06-12Z) Friday morning.. as a low pressure system tracks eastward over northwest KS and southwest NE. Winds will shift to the N and increase to 15-20 knots near the end of the TAF period (~18Z Fri).. as the surface low progresses eastward into central KS-NE.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for KSZ041. CO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None.