textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A bit cooler to end the work week with highs in the 80s and low 90s.

- Severe weather returns end of this week through early next week. Main days for severe weather look to be Saturday and Sunday.

- Cooler and wet pattern is forecast to start the new work week and even possibly through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 131 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Today, a high is moving across southwestern Nebraska, leading to some variable winds. Occasional gusts in the 15-20 kts range are expected until this evening when the inversion sets up. Highs still look to warm up into the 80s today and precipitation is not forecast this afternoon.

Overnight, as the high exits to the east, a low slowly forms in the lee of the Rockies and remains there until Saturday afternoon. This will funnel southerly flow into the CWA, drawing in additional moisture and slightly warmer temperatures. Winds look to gradually increase after midnight. This will work to keep lows in the 50s tonight.

Friday, the pattern does not change a lot and highs look to warm into the upper 80s to near 90. Gusts are forecast to be in the 15-25 kts range across most of the area, but eastern Colorado may briefly see some 30 kts gusts before noon. There are some signs of a 305K front pushing across the CWA in the afternoon hours. This produces a 20-30% chance of showers and storms east of U.S. 83 after 18Z. Severe weather is not likely from this convection, it would likely be scattered showers with occasional strikes of lightning.

Friday evening, a 500 mb shortwave trough coming over the Rockies will support some scattered convection across portions of the CWA. Guidance is not lining up as to where this convection will occur, but it favors north of U.S. 40 and east of KS 25. However, some CAMs are showing the convection occurring near the Tri-State border. Hail up to 1.5 inches and winds up to 65 MPH. Peak time for any convection will be between 1-6Z. Temperatures are forecast to cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s, with warmest temperatures in the southeastern CWA.

Saturday, we expect to see the low to finally move away from the Rockies and move across the Central Plains. Highs Saturday are forecast to warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s, with warmest locations in the southwestern CWA. The temperatures will be fairly dependent on how strong the WAA is during the day. Thanks to that low moving east, the pressure gradient will increase, allowing southerly winds to gust into the 25-33 kts range.

In the mid-afternoon is when we expect to see the bulk of that low enter the western CWA. This is when we expect to see convection begin, likely around 21-23Z. Initially, a broken line of convection looks to fire on the west side of the Colorado border, extending across the entire length of the CWA. Within 2-4 hours, it looks to morph into a messy QLCS with additional cells potentially forming ahead of the storm and being ingested. There are some signs that this complex will form into and MCS in the eastern CWA before continuing out of the CWA. The convection looks to exit the CWA around 9Z to the east. Peak severe threat looks to be between 0-6Z, when all hazards will be possible, including hail, wind, blowing dust, flash flooding, and a tornado or two.

Saturday night, as convection and the low finally exits the CWA, winds will weaken and become northerly. Lingering cloud cover will work to keep low pretty similar to the night before.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

An unsettled pattern continues for nearly the entire extended period as additional shortwaves move through the area. A classic summertime storm pattern is forecast to be setting up with developing high pressure across the southern Plains and semi northwest mid level flow for the CWA. Moisture currently looks to be a little less than Saturday with PWATS ranging from 1-1.5 inches. The signal remains for the potential of a few MCS's to move through the area after initial discrete storms at least Monday through Wednesday; and potentially through the latter part of the weak as some guidance indicates very little change to the overall pattern. Dependent on how Saturday and each previous day pans out additional flooding concerns may be possible especially for those that received the heaviest rainfall each day.

Temperatures for the period are a little on the tricky side as they potentially could end up a little cooler than currently forecast anyone day due to lingering cloud cover and possibly precipation. Confidence is high that below normal temperatures will occur with highs in the 70s to low 80s along with an increase in humidity as well. If the high were to set up a little further to the east more so over Oklahoma and Texas instead of Arizona and New Mexico which is what guidance currently suggests then rain chances would decrease and temperatures would increase.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 435 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for KGLD and KMCK. We are expecting gusts this evening and into the night around 15-22 kts and be favoring a southerly direction. During the day Friday, winds gusting up around 18-25 kts will become more common. Showers may start impacting KMCK near the end of the period, but largely occur in the late afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 131 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Over the next week, we are looking at near daily chances of convection as PWATs range around 0.9-1.75 inch. We are also expecting 0C level to be around 15,000 feet AGL, leading to deep melting layers. Saturday is the most aggressive day coming up, where a MCS looks to form across the CWA and may produce 0.5-1.5+ inches of QPF in the northeastern CWA with localized amounts exceeding 2- 2.5 inches.

Between the high QPF values on Saturday and the following multiple days of heavy rainfall potential, we are worried about a flash flooding risk. Areas that are at the highest risk for seeing a flooding risk are along and northeast of a line from Trenton, NE to Quinter, KS.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.