textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20% chance for storms to form that may produce large hail tonight.

- Saturday-Monday, more severe weather is expected during the afternoon and evening hours. All hazards are possible, and will generally favor northern portions of the area.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Current observations have the area underneath zonal flow aloft with a surface low closer to the Panhandles region. This has led to winds being from the north at 15 mph, gusting 25 mph. While relative humidity has dropped into the single digits and teens, critical fire weather conditions have been brief and sporadic so far. With this expected to continue, no Red Flag Warning has been issued. Winds should also lower as we get later into the afternoon with the pressure gradient weakening as the low broadens. Temperatures should remain in the 90s. We have had a few showers develop along the wrap around side of the low in Greeley and Wichita counties with mid- level lapse rates around 9 C/km. However, with moisture and instability on the lower side, they have not really been able to sustain or have precipitation reach the ground. This could move through Northwest Kansas during the remainder of the afternoon, but no hazards are expected with these.

This evening and into tonight, showers and storms may fire up over the higher terrain in the Palmer Divide. Either these storms may make it to the area or send outflow that could produce additional storms in Eastern Colorado. If there are storms, they should make their way east across the area. As they do so, they would move into an environment with better instability closer to 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE instead of less than 500 J/kg. With this, a few instances of hail nearing an inch in diameter would be possible. The saving grace is that the dry air and overall lack of instability may prevent storms from forming at all. There is about an 80% chance these storms don't develop and we maybe just have a few high showers pass through. If storms did form, the severe weather would favor generally east of Highway 25. Winds should shift to out of the east around 10 mph.

Saturday continues to look like the more impactful day of the forecast. The next upper trough is forecast to push into the Northern Rockies and help develop another surface low along the Front Range. With it, an area of surface convergence is forecast to form near the Palmer Divide while southeasterly low level flow brings in moisture. With this, storms should develop during the afternoon hours and push east into and through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Meanwhile, additional storms may develop along Highway 40 during the early afternoon as well if there are any outflow boundaries lingering from convection during the prior night. While less likely to form, these storms would push east/northeast if they did form. Initiation looks to be between 12- 2pm MT, peak around 3-7pm MT / 4-8pm CT, and end around 9-11pm CT.

As for the hazards, all hazards are possible with 0-6km shear around 30-45 kts allowing for both cluster/linear and supercell modes. Available instability is the questions with the RRFS and HRRR favoring around 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE while the NAM 3k has closer to 3000-3500 J/kg. Either would allow for large hail, but the lower values would favor a max closer to 2.0-2.5 inches while the higher values would favor 3+ inches with supercells. In either case, linear or cluster storms would favor hail around 0.5-2.0 inches. For tornadoes, guidance generally suggests that the environment would morph to support some tornadoes later in the afternoon as low level shear increases. Still, the LCL's of the storms are forecast to be rather high around 6000-10000ft which will hamper development a little. QLCS tornadoes are more likely, with one to two quick spin ups forecast. If we can get a supercell ahead of the line, it wouldn't be unreasonable for a tornado to form then as well. Otherwise, this event would be more of a hail and wind event. Speaking of wind, guidance has been a bit aggressive with outputs suggesting max wind gusts of 70-90 mph. With winds around 700-500mb reaching 55-60 kts and corfidi downshear vectors of 50-70kts, it wouldn't be unreasonable for a few gusts to 80-85 mph. Most of the winds should fall in the 50-70 mph range, even with the line of storms. It is just if the line surges or we get a well developed supercell, the stronger winds may come into play. The wind is more likely after 4-5 pm MT. In regards to areas, counties along the Nebraska border have the best chance of seeing severe weather and the highest magnitude of severe weather. The rest of the area may see severe weather if the secondary line forms or if an outflow surges south. Otherwise, the severe event may be confined to the northern portions of the area. One thing to keep in mind with all of this is that this event can be weakened if there is too much lingering cloud cover from the night prior or if the low center shifts further north. We may be missed entirely if things shift to far north.

Otherwise, Saturday should remain warm with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s and southeast winds at 15-25 mph. While the winds may be a bit breezy, the influx of lower moisture should prevent critical fire weather conditions. Saturday night should see skies clear for most of the area as the low begins to shift east and bring in a dry slot. That being said, low clouds or fog may be possible for locales in and near Southwest Nebraska if they get either good rainfall that saturates the lower levels, or moisture wraps around the low and back into these areas.

Sunday, the upper trough is forecast to dig down south into more of the Rockies. With little easterly movement, the surface low is forecast to move minimally to the east. That being said, ensemble guidance does suggest that the low could shift a fair amount. This is a problem for forecasting the storm positioning and evolution as the dryslot will determine who see storms and who doesn't. The dryslot will also lead to critical fire weather condition concerns for those who the dry air moves over. For now, the forecast position of the low is to be more over the southern and eastern portions of the area, which would be the areas that relative humidity could drop into the teens. Winds are the limiting factor for critical conditions as the dry air will generally be where the low center is, which is where the weaker winds should be. Still, gusts around 25-30 mph are possible. Temperatures should be a bit cooler for those north of a line from Cheyenne Wells, CO to Trenton, NE with northerly winds on the backside of the low. Highs are forecast to be in the 80s while those further east and south should reach the 90s.

As for the severe weather, there is the possibility for it ahead and north of the low. In these areas, there should be enough instability and shear for clusters of storms to develop and make their way east. There is the chance though that they are over sheared with the upper trough deepening and increasing the flow through much of the air column. This also has upped the wind threat with winds around 500mb potential reaching 60 kts and downshear vectors of 70-80 kts. Large hail and tornadoes are also possible given the aforementioned shear and instability, though over shearing would weaken both of their chances. Storms should likely fire up around 1-3pm MT and then end by 10-11pm MT. There doesn't seem to be a likely secondary scenario with ensembles split on the low placement, so just be watching for updates as the threats and their placement may change as we get closer.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 247 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Severe weather chances continue for Monday as the eastern county warning area (CWA) is outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for a Day 4 15% chance of severe weather. Our region is forecast to be under a negatively tilted upper-level trough. There is also a surface low in place with a north-south oriented dryline extending from the low to the Texas-Mexico border. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensembles all still disagree on where this low will set up. Some ensembles have the low in southwestern Kansas while others have it in central Kansas. Where the low ultimately sets up will determine our weather for Monday. A southwest Kansas low will favor more widespread severe weather coverage across the CWA while a more central Kansas low will push the dryline further east increasing fire weather potential.

Currently, the NBM is leaning more towards a southwest Kansas low with chances of showers and thunderstorms for the northwest CWA. A cold front is forecast to pass through the region Monday morning. Blowing dust will be a concern ahead of the cold front with gusts around 50 mph possible. Storms will likely develop ahead of the boundary as they enter an environment with ample moisture, strong instability and shear. Thunderstorms and supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 40-90% for the northwest CWA.

Critical fire weather conditions will also be a concern Monday afternoon. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the high teens for the southern CWA with gusts up to 60 mph possible. With the region outlooked for severe weather, there is concern for lightning ahead of storms as an ignition source. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are forecast in the 80-100s for the southern CWA. If any fires start, they will likely grow and spread out of control rapidly. If the surface low ends up setting up in central Kansas, fire weather conditions could end up more widespread across the CWA.

Tuesday is cooler in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s. Main highlight for Tuesday is a 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the western CWA. The remainder of the long term is fairly consistent as we enter more of a upper-level ridge patter. For Wednesday through Friday, expect high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s with gusty winds up to 30 mph for our Colorado counties in the afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 452 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds through the evening and night should shift to be more from the northeast at 10kt or less. There may be some low level wind shear tonight around 06Z as winds may briefly reach 35 kts at 200ft from the east. Otherwise, winds should become more southeasterly tomorrow around 12-15 kts. There is a 20% chance for storms after 06Z with large hail as the main threat.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.