textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild today with chances for showers and storms this afternoon through the overnight hours. A storm or two may be severe with large hail and wind gusts to 60 mph.

- Precipitation chances continue into the weekend along with small chances for severe weather.

- Next week continues the precipitation chances. Low temperatures near or below freezing may also occur.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 156 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Current satellite observations show an upper low moving into the Great Lakes region while another upper trough is moving into the Northern Rockies. The area is currently in a somewhat weak pressure gradient with high pressure over most of the Plains, with a surface low weakening to the southwest. Radar and observations at the office show a few showers still moving over the area and providing sprinkles to light rain. There sprinkles and showers could continue through the morning with mid-level moisture still in place and some 850-700mb convergence.

The morning and most of the afternoon hours are forecast to be fairly benign with a weak pressure gradient in place and partly to mostly cloudy skies. With no airmass change, high temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s, with near 80s possible for those who see plenty of sunshine.

The excitement begins around 2 to 4pm MT as the upper trough is forecast to move over the Northern Plains and help a surface low develop along the Palmer Divide. This will provide a low level convergence zone and help spark showers and storms in Eastern Colorado. The lower level are forecast to be fairly dry with dewpoints in the 30s, so both instability and precipitation totals are both forecast to be low. We still may be able to see a severe storm or two with effective shear around 40 kts if a storm can stay together and isolated. Hail between 0.5 and 1.25" would be the main hazard. The threat for strong wind gusts has really lowered with weak environmental flow and corfidi downshear vectors around or below 35 kts, but a rogue 60 mph gust with a decaying storms could still occur. Otherwise, the rest of the evening and overnight hours are forecast to have on and off showers and storms providing patches of a few hundredths or rain.

It is worth noting that there is another convergence zone that is currently forecast just southeast of the area. If that can shift north into the area, that line of storms would have a higher chance of producing severe weather with more moisture and instability. Overall though, the chance of this occurring is about 10%.

Tomorrow, is forecast to be much cooler as a colder air mass moves in behind the upper trough and sets up over the Plains. The area is also forecast to hang onto its moisture which could have the area start with fog, and then have low clouds linger through the day. These combining factors are forecast to keep temperatures in the 40s and 50s for most of the day. Locales that see the skies clear (mainly in the west and north) could see temperatures reach the 60s. While precipitation chances are forecast somewhat high in the 40-80% range, this is more due to the saturation leading to low mist or light rain totals of 0.01-0.03". Upper level ridging and little to no low level forcing should prevent organized showers/storms from forming during the day.

Tomorrow night, the area is forecast to shift into more southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the next upper trough. This is forecast to bring in more higher level moisture into the area. With the low level jet also forecast to kick in, chances for precipitation are forecast to increase. The earlier cloud cover should keep most of the area from generating instability, but any change or increase could lead to severe chances during the night. Mainly for hail, but it wouldn't be unreasonable for either wind due to the low level jet or a tornado if we stay moist and mixed in the low levels. Otherwise, temperatures should stay in the 40s and 50s with the additional cloud cover in place.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 156 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

The weekend is forecast to start off breezy and warm with highs in the 70s and 80s Saturday. An upper level trough is forecast to push through the Rockies as an upper low/trough digs into the West Coast. This upper level trough/shortwave is forecast to deepen and push a surface low across the Plains. The increased pressure and height gradients are forecast to increase winds to around 20-35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. Will need to watch closely for a high wind warning, though guidance for now has not shown much wind above 45 kts in the lowest few hundred mbs. Critical fire weather is unlikely due to high relative humidity from lingering moisture, but fire danger will likely be high. The issue is that this setup will likely provide a chance for a few severe storms. Currently, the wind is forecast to be too uniform for much shear which is inhibiting chances, along with weak mid- level lapse rates. But the forecast presence of around 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE along with a potential frontal boundary in the area may allow for some strong to severe storm to form. All hazards would be possible.

Sunday, we are forecast to warm further as the low and trough lift north and shift our low level flow to out of the southwest. The southwesterly flow would dry us out a bit and allow for highs in the 80s. The main change would be if the upper trough to the west did move faster, which ensemble guidance seems to be split on. There still seems to be slightly more members suggesting it delays, so for now the forecast reflects this with the warmer and drier solution. If it moved faster, Sunday could be a bit cooler and stormier.

Next week the area is forecast to remain under troughing aloft, both from the weekend trough slowly moving across and a forecasted reinforcing trough. This should cool temperatures a bit and keep the precipitation chances up for the area. It wouldn't be surprising for the area to have multiple chances for severe weather as well. One thing to keep in mind is that if the cold air is allowed to filter in and the upper troughs don't lift too far north, overnight lows may be able to reach freezing again next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 523 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast for a majority of the day with clouds during the daytime generally above 10000ft. Winds are forecast to be below 10 kts through 00Z. After 00Z, there are chances for showers and maybe a storm. There is a low chance for it to be severe with hail around an inch and wind gusts of 35-50 kts. Once the showers/storms pass, low level moisture is forecast to push in and lower ceilings to at least 500-1000ft. 300ft ceilings or less will also be possible.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the daytime hours. Winds should generally be below 10 kts. This evening after 06Z, low level moisture is forecast to move in and lower ceilings below 2000ft. It wouldn't be unreasonable for ceilings to lower to 500-1000ft towards 12Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.