textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy freezing fog and freezing drizzle tonight across the area may lead to slick surfaces and reduced visibilities, impacting travel.

- Large temperature gradient across the area over the weekend, with colder temperatures generally east of Highway 83/23 and milder temperatures in Colorado.

- Milder temperatures in the 50s, 60s, and maybe 70s return early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

Tonight, a shortwave trough is forecast to move over the CWA from the northwest. Most of the mid and upper-level moisture will have left the area, but near-surface moisture is forecast to stick around overnight. Depending on the timing of the trough, the eastern 1/3 of the CWA could see southeastern flow into the morning Saturday. If this occurs, fog will likely form. If the axis sweeps through the area before sunrise, southwesterly winds will dominate and fog would be unlikely. Additionally, if the surface level moisture does remain over the eastern CWA and the forecast -1 to -3 microbars of Omega occur, drizzle will occur. In this scenario, there is a 70% chance a light glazing of ice will form over Norton and Graham counties from freezing drizzle. This could extend to the west, as far Trenton, NE. It's also worth noting guidance is having a difficult time with low temperatures. Lows will be in the upper 20s, largely kept this "warm" from the low level moisture. There is a 25-30% chance the moisture clears out and lows drop into the low 20s across the northeastern CWA.

Boiled down, there is a 10-15% chance of freezing drizzle along and east of a line from Trenton, NE to Hoxie, KS and a 40% chance of patchy freezing fog east of Highway 83 Saturday morning. Either of these would lead to a light glazing of ice, causing impacts to travel Saturday morning.

During the day Saturday, a high will be coming in from the northwest, leading to northerly flow during the day behind a cold front. Behind the cold front, we could see wind gusts around 20-30 kts across the area. We expect to see a pretty sharp temperature boundary across the area. In the eastern CWA, highs will top out in the 30s, but the southwestern CWA will warm into the upper 50s. It's possible the cooler temperatures could expand farther southwest and highs near McCook and Norton may not come above freezing.

Saturday night, we could see fog early on, potentially freezing, how quickly the temperatures cool below freezing will determine if this is freezing fog, but current confidence in freezing fog is around 10%. By Sunday morning, a high pressure system will be crossing the CWA and temperatures will be cold! Lows are forecast to cool around 10 degrees in the eastern CWA while the western CWA will remain around 20 degrees. Wind chills are forecast to be near 0 across most of the area.

Sunday's temperatures will be similar to Saturday's. Highs in the east will be in the low to mid 30s while highs in the west will be in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures will be trying to get warmer with southerly WAA. Sunday could also see some 20-25 kts gusts, but not as many as Saturday.

Sunday night, another weak cold front will be moving through the CWA, but lows will be warmer, thanks to the WAA earlier in the day. Across the CWA, lows will remain in the 20s, potentially upper teens in the eastern CWA. We cannot rule out some patchy freezing fog in the eastern CWA as RH values will reach near 100%. However, with a trough moving through and westerly winds, the potential for fog is less than 5%.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be fairly mild as the area sits under zonal/northwest flow aloft. While a few shortwaves may move through, winds are forecast to be around 5 to 15 mph with maybe a few gusts near 25 mph in Eastern colorado. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s and 60s with a few 70s possible on Tuesday. Skies are forecast to be partly cloudy with drier air in place over the area. the only potential concern at this time is some briefly critical fire weather conditions for counties along the Colorado border as relative humidity drops into the teens.

Wednesday through Friday, the upper flow is forecast to be zonal, but there is the potential for a trough to swing through the Plains on Wednesday. Should the trough swing low enough to impact the area, a low pressure system will move through and increase winds a bit. Winds would be closer to 15-20 mph with gusts around 30-40 mph. Temperatures would also lower into the 50s behind the system (likely on Thursday). Friday would then see the area warm up ahead of another potential system Should the upper trough Wednesday stay far enough north, then conditions similar to Monday and Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the 60s and winds around 5-15 mph should hold through the end of the week.

Precipitation is not currently forecast as dry air is forecast to be in place through most of the extended period. If the system does move through the area Wednesday, a few showers or light snow showers would be possible, but nothing of note at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 424 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... Difficult aviation conditions are forecast with ceilings as low as a few hundred feet and freezing fog. Low ceilings around 1000ft are already observed at KMCK and KGLD is expected to join within the first few hours. An area of fog is forecast to form along the Colorado border and impact KGLD as early as 01Z. The fog should then expand east and include KMCK. Whether at the surface or just a bit above, icing is a concern once the fog forms as temperatures are already near freezing. Most of the night should have conditions that are not ideal for flying. As we get closer to 12Z, a low pressure system is forecast to push in from the west and start moving the moisture out. This should allow KGLD to clear and see VFR conditions by 18Z. Conversely, KMCK may not fully clear during the period, but should have the fog lift by 16Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.