textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Severe weather threat continues with afternoon and evening storms today and Monday. 50-70 MPH winds are the main hazards, but 1-2 inch hail is also possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 111 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A 500 mb high over Missouri will work to keep us under southwesterly flow for the next couple of days. Down at 850 mb, the high is over the Carolinas, but still expands its influence through most of Kansas. This will allow us to have some weak low-level troughs move in from the north-northwest, spurring some convection, potentially severe. It will also keep the low level flow fairly chaotic, preventing any strong, persistent surface level winds for most of the CWA.

The weaker flow will allow the sun to efficiently warm the surface, as long as it's unimpeded. However, we are expecting some mid and upper level clouds to ride along the edge of the 500 mb high, likely covering the northwestern half of the CWA both today and tomorrow. Today's highs look to warm into the low 90s where there are persistent clouds. There is also a 10% chance these clouds could produce some light showers around sunrise this morning. Where the clouds are thin or non-existent, temperatures will likely warm into upper 90s to triple digits. Most likely areas to hit 100 degrees today will be along and southwest of a line from Norton to Tribune, KS. There is also a 15% chance some organized southwesterly flow at the surface is able to form, generally under 20 kts, but this could push the temperatures closer to 105.

Convection this afternoon and evening looks to fire off in eastern Colorado and move northeast into the CWA around 21-0Z. Any severe threat looks to be coming to an end around 6Z, but storms may linger until closer to 9-12Z. Wind looks to be the primary threat with these storm as inverted-V soundings are seen across the area. Gusts in the 40-60 kts range are the most likely threat, but we cannot ruled out gusts closer to 70 kts. Mid-level instabilty lowers the potential for a hail threat, however hodographs are nothing but an inflow notch. This may support splitting and left mover supercells, bringing the hail threat back into the picture. Without good instability to loft hail, max hail size would likely be under 1.5 inches, if any does form. There is also a low (5-10%) chance that these storms may train, leading to a flash flooding risk. However, a large, dry layer under the storms keeps this threat pretty low. These risks cover the bulk majority of the CWA, but areas near the Tri-State border have the best chance at seeing stronger convection.

Overnight, temperatures look to largely cool into the 60s, save for locations east of U.S. 83. This area may remain in the 70s from a combination of southerly flow and clouds cover. Once again, there may be some near-sunrise showers along and north of U.S. 36.

Monday should be a couple of degrees cooler, thanks largely to additional cloud cover. Effectively, the entire CWA looks to see temperatures 2-4 degrees cooler than Sunday. Not a big cool down, but it's something.

Monday's convection may begin to move into the southwestern CWA around as early as 21-23Z after firing off in eastern Colorado, similar to Sunday's. If this happens, it's possible the storms will be on the weaker side, maybe able to produce some 65 MPH gusts. However, if storms move into the CWA closer to the 0-4Z timeframe, the front driving all of this convection would likely push farther east, just past the Colorado border, and fire off a broken line of convection. This has the potential to be more severe as the shear profile will be better suited for hail around 1-2+ inches, and a very low (<2%) chance of a brief tornado. The severe threat for this option would last until around 9Z with lingering storms persisting until sunrise. In either case, storms will be once again moving towards the northeast. Overnight temperatures Monday night look to mimic Sunday night's.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1254 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Tuesday through Thursday, not much change in the upper pattern is forecast with the upper ridge over the Southeastern United States with an upper trough over the Northwest United States. This is forecast to keep the air mass roughly the same each day and allow for highs in the 90s and low 100s. The warmer temperatures favor areas that are closer to Central Kansas. Winds should remain around 5-15 mph and vary in direction each day as broad low pressure is expected to linger over much of the Plains. With the upper level southwest flow and upstream trough, mid to high level moisture is forecast to continue streaming into the area and bring in high level cloud cover. A few shortwaves should also move through and help spark storm development west of the area. With the low levels forecast to be a bit on the dry side, storms will likely struggle to make it to the area in the absence of outflows or a low level jet. Still, each day will give the area a chance for storms and maybe even some severe weather.

Going into the weekend, confidence has increased a bit more on the ridge amplifying over the Plains. This is keeping the pattern roughly the same and conditions somewhat similar. Temperatures may be able to warm into the 100s for most of the area if the ridge axis shifts over the area. Otherwise, we should keep the light winds and daily chances for storms.

There is still a 25% though that the upper trough pushes east over the weekend instead. In this case, Friday/Saturday would be hot and have better chances for storms as the trough pushes a more pronounce system through the area. The rest of the weekend would then probably be cooler with highs maybe in the 80s. Storm chances would also probably be a bit lower on Sunday as well.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast over the area with clouds generally above 10000ft. Winds near the surface should remain around 5-8kts and generally be from the northwest. However, with a surface low pressure system over the area, the winds will likely vary in direction at times. Storms are possible between 00-12Z, but more likely around 05-09Z. If they move through, be alert for wind gusts in the 40-60 kts range and maybe hail around an inch or two.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.