textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures return by the end of the week, with triple digit highs this weekend into early next week.

- Scattered storms are possible during the late aft-eve hours on Wed and Thu. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage on both days. Organized severe weather is not expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Current RAP analysis continues to show high pressure across the Rockies. Further to the north a weak cold front is situated across southern Nebraska and is slowly moving to the south towards the area. A wind shift to the north is forecast to occur starting in the area in between 06-09Z and continue to move to the south through the morning hours. Mixing heights with the front are only a couple hundred feet through around 13Z before increasing to around 1000- 1500 feet. As the front moves through not anticipating much of an increase with the wind, more than likely sustained winds of 10-15 mph due to weak and a wind shift. Around 12-13Z as mentioned mixing heights are forecast to increase so do think that some gusts of 30- 35 knots may be able to be realized as a weak 850mb jet is forecast to remain in place through mid morning. With the front, can't completely rule out some weak or brief showers with the additional forcing but currently anticipating most if not all of any precipitation to remain virga due to dry low levels. With the front some haze from fires in Canada is forecast to move into the area from the north as noted in the 00Z HRRR and RRFS. Not anticipating any impacts with this other than perhaps a notable haze through Tuesday morning and afternoon.

Tuesday, breezy winds are forecast to continue through morning hours with some gusts up to 30 knots through late morning as an 850mb jet lingers over the area and diurnal mixing resumes. Forecast soundings suggests that this jet should weaken as the day goes on but with sustained winds remaining around 15-20 knots through the afternoon. The ridge from the past few days become a bit less amplified leading to a little less hot temperatures than the past few days with high temperatures in the 90s. Tuesday night, a shortwave moves across the northern periphery of said ridge leading to the potential for showers and storms across Yuma, Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties. Guidance also does indicate a warm air advection moving north overnight which also may be the source for additional showers and storms developing a little further south due to isentropic ascent in the 315K level; perhaps as far south as Interstate 70. A developing 700mb jet from the west would serve as some additional forcing as well for some backbuilding potential for northern portions of the area. Severe weather looks to be very unlikely with the activity. Lighting and downpours would be the only potential hazards especially for any ongoing county fairs with livestock remaining outdoors overnight.

Should the rainfall develop as far south as some guidance suggests then the rainfall could last through mid morning before exiting the area. The high pressure then moves south of the area for the day with closer to normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s forecast. If the high were to not push as far south then southern portions of the area may approach the triple digits again. Wednesday evening a subtle wave is forecast to move off of the Rockies and onto the Plains along with a developing 700mb jet to further aid in potential shower and storm development again through the night. Severe weather is again unlikely but some stronger storms could have the potential for some hail up to nickel size as wind shear is a bit better between 20-25 knots. Currently think locally heavy rain would be the primary concern as PWATS are forecast to increase to around 1.5 due to monsoonal moisture off of the Rockies interacts with a plume of some tropical moisture from the southeast. Some ensemble members do try to paint around 1-1.5 inches of rain in 6 hours somewhere across the CWA Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Synoptically for the long term portion of the forecast, the ridge will begin to propagate eastward and will begin to stall out over the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains region. Looking at the mid levels guidance does have some agreement on there being some shortwave moving through the area begin Saturday through Tuesday.

Overall for this period, it looks to remain fairly dry and hot. The daily temperatures for the weekend and early next week are forecast to be in the high 90s and low 100s. The days with the highest temperatures look to be Saturday through Monday.

Starting with Saturday, Guidance is suggesting that Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow Counties will have around a 30-50% of exceeding 100 degrees. The NBM and LREF however do show some disagreement with the rest of the County Warning Area (CWA). The NBM is favoring the highest temperatures to stay in the Nebraska counties whereas, the LREF favors areas east of CO Hwy 385 having a 30-50% of seeing above 100 for highs. As for Sunday, the LREF has the majority of the CWA having around a 25-75% of exceeding 100 degrees with the higher values in the eastern portions of the CWA. The NBM has similar coverage with areas east of CO Hwy 385 but values in the 20-60%. Monday Guidance is in agreement more than previous days and is showing that there is around a 20-45% chance of seeing temperatures higher than 100 degrees. The main areas for seeing these temperatures look to be east of KS Hwy 25/83 and south of US Hwy 40.

Moving to precipation chances, the highest days to see precipitation chances is Monday and Tuesday. Currently for each day PoPs are in the range of 20-30% for areas west of KS Hwy 83. Looking at SFC-CAPE guidance is suggesting there to be around 1000-1500 J/kg. SFC-500 mb Shear there is around 20-30 kts which would suggest storms to be unorganized if they are able to develop. Given this is around a week out and will a fair amount can change.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to transient wisps of cirrus at or above ~18,000 ft AGL. Easterly winds at 15-20 knots w/gusts to ~25 knots will decrease to 12-17 knots w/gusts to ~20 knots by mid- afternoon (19-21Z), then veer to the ESE and further decrease to ~10-15 knots by sunset. 10-15 knot ESE winds will persist overnight, becoming SE late Wednesday morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to transient wisps of cirrus at or above ~18,000 ft AGL. Easterly winds at 12-17 knots this afternoon will veer to the ESE and decrease to 8-12 knots by sunset. Light ESE winds will persist overnight, becoming SE and increasing to 12-17 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots late Wednesday morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.