textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- 10-20% chance of sprinkles or light showers favoring locations along and north of I-70 tonight.

- Breezy to gusty winds Monday resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph most likely, but could gust as high as 55 mph across eastern Colorado early Monday morning. - Above normal temperatures and fire weather concerns continue through the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to continue through the remainder of the afternoon as weak cold air advection in wake of last night's cold front continues to stream into the area. The magnitude of the winds is forecast to wane as the afternoon goes as the 850mb wind field wanes. Temperature forecast continues to remain on track with highs in the low to mid 60s across the area. Some mountain cirrus across the southern CWA may actually keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast.

Tonight, some moisture gets pooled up along and west of the Highway 27 corridor thanks in part to a surface high which is forecast to promote easterly winds. A weak 500mb shortwave and associated vorticity maxima is forecast to move off of the Rockies. This looks to increase cloud cover overnight and also may be enough to generate some sprinkles or even light showers overnight. The favored area is along and north of Interstate 70. I would be a bit more optimistic on the rain chances but nearly all forecast soundings indicate some dry air near the surface which would favors the sprinkle scenario a bit more. Continue to feel that the slight chance wording for showers is reasonable given the strength of the vorticity maxima which in the past with the same set up has overcome the dry air at the surface.

The increase in cloud cover also does lead to a tricky overnight low forecast. I did nudge east counties down a few more degrees as dew points in the low 20s are forecast along with lighter winds and what should be a bit of a delay in cloud cover impacting them overnight. If the cloud cover across the area is thicker than what is currently forecast then low temperatures may be around 3-5 degrees to low.

Monday morning a tightening pressure gradient across eastern Colorado is forecast to form leading to increasing winds as early as 10Z across far western portions of the Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are forecast but there is potential for gusts up to 55 mph. Winds are forecast to work their way east through the morning and afternoon but lose some of their punch but still remaining gusty at 35-45 mph. Eastern portions of the CWA may top out with 25-35 mph gusts. Elevated fire weather will be a concern as humidity is forecast to fall into the upper teens to mid 20s across the area forecast to see the lower on the RH. Mid and upper level clouds are forecast to be rather thick looking RAP cross section analysis which may actually keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast and keep humidity a could percent higher than forecast as well. With the cloud cover be aware that hot spots may shielded from satellite view. Monday night another 500mb shortwave and vorticity max is forecast to move across the area within northwesterly flow. 15Z RAP cross sections show deeper dry air near the surface which makes me question if sprinkles would even occur.

Tuesday, high pressure is forecast to form again across the southwestern CONUS as high temperatures warm again into the 80s across the entire area. Cloud cover is again forecast to be present which may limit how warm temperatures get. Guidance shows a bit more stout moisture advection at least for eastern part so of the forecast area for the afternoon. The 850mb wind field looks less impressive than what was seen 24 hours ago which leads me to believe that fire weather will not be a concern despite the warming temperatures. Should there be any fire weather concerns it would favor eastern Colorado where humidity is again forecast to fall into the mid teens but may be dependent on how deep mixing can become and if any wind gusts above 20 knots can occur.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge over the southwest CONUS (mid-week) will flatten and migrate east across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley by the end of the work week as a broad upper level trough envelopes the northern half of the CONUS. Unidirectional/westerly flow aloft over the High Plains (Thu-Fri) will transition to WNW-NW flow aloft this weekend, as the aforementioned trough progresses downstream toward the Eastern Seaboard and an upper level ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West.

Wednesday: "Peak heat". A day-to-day warming trend early this week will culminate on Wed, with record or near-record highs (for the date) in the lower 90's. 12Z 03/22 operational GFS and ECMWF guidance indicate a nebulous/ill-defined MSLP-850 mb height pattern over the region. Forecast soundings indicate deep vertical mixing (up to ~10,000 ft AGL), albeit with no more than 10-20 knot NW to W flow therein, suggesting that relatively light winds may, once again, be the primary limiting factor from a fire weather standpoint. Expect a potential for marginal Red Flag conditions, similar to last week.

Thursday: 12Z 03/22 GFS and ECMWF operational guidance both indicate an abrupt cooling trend associated with a cold frontal passage by the end of the work-week, though.. exactly when this transition will occur is unclear. The GFS, for example, indicates that the cold frontal passage will occur around or shortly after sunrise Thursday morning (~12-15Z Thu). The ECMWF, on the other hand, indicates the cold frontal passage will occur during the afternoon, between ~18Z Thu and 00Z Fri. There are few discernible differences in the upper level pattern / bigger picture depicted by either model, they're remarkably similar. In such setups, significant variations in the timing of a cold frontal passage often indicate upstream airmass 'meddling', e.g. precipitation / evaporative cooling and, to a lesser extent, cloud cover are altering the characteristics of an upstream airmass (and low-level height/wind fields). In this case, it appears that subtle aspects of the evolution of a progressive mid-latitude cyclone tracking eastward across Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario (Wed night into Thu) will play a significant role in precipitation development, coverage and amounts over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest (ND-MN). At any rate, high temperatures and critical fire weather potential on Thu will highly depend upon the precise timing of the frontal passage.

Friday: Expect cooler, near-average temperatures in the wake of the front, with highs in the upper 50's.

Sat-Sun: Low-level southerly return flow and a warming trend will ensue, this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK. There is a 15-25% chance for some light precipitation to move over both sites before sunrise, potentially leading to brief MVFR ceilings. Between 12-15Z, south-southeasterly winds will pick up. KGLD will see frequent gusts around 30-35 kts through the midday and afternoon with occasional gusts up to 40 kts possible. KMCK will be a bit weaker, with most gusts around 25 kts, but occasional gusts up to 35 kts. Winds will be less gusty and gradually weaken after sunset.

CLIMATE

Issued at 415 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record high temperatures (for the date) are possible on Wednesday March 25.

================================================== Record Highs for Wed March 25 Current Forecast ================================================== Burlington.........83 in 1998 90 Goodland...........85 in 1907 90 Hill City..........88 in 1956 92 McCook.............88 in 1910 91

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.