textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A bit on the warm side with highs in the 80s and low 90s through the weekend. - Increased fire weather concerns are forecast today and Saturday, especially for counties along the Tri-State border. Relative humidity may drop into the teens with gusts around 30-35 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 113 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Current observations show broad upper ridging across much of the Southern United states and Tri-State area with a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States. This is keeping the main jet north of the area, helping keep skies clear with a lack of moisture through the air column. Broad low pressure has also set up across much of the Plains, helping to keep winds around 10 mph or less early in the morning. As we progress into the daytime hours, an upper trough is forecast to begin pushing into the Northwestern United States. For now, this looks like it will deepen the surface low to the north and northwest of the area, which will increase the winds heading towards the noon hour. Speeds are forecast to reach 10- 20 mph with gusts around 30-35 mph for much of the area. The area that may be spared is counties near the Tri-State border, where the low noses in and keeps winds closer to 10 mph gust 20 mph. This is good as this area is also forecast to have the warmest temperatures (near 90) and driest air, lowering relative humidity into the teens. The forecast favors the dry air and strong winds being offset from each other and inhibiting critical fire weather conditions in the area. Still, be careful as fire danger will be increased across the area. Clear skies are forecast to remain through the day with temperatures warming into the 80s and low to mid 90s. Tonight, the surface low is forecast to become more defined and deeper in the Northern Plains. This will allow the winds to slowly relax a bit over the area as we wind up in the weaker pressure gradient. Mostly clear skies are forecast, with maybe a few high clouds passing through as the upper flow changes to be more from the southwest. Temperatures should remain in the 60s and 70s with the winds keeping the lower levels mixed through most of the night. A few 50s may be possible close to sunrise.

Tomorrow, Hurricane Isaias is forecast to push into the Southeastern United States and stall out a bit. As it does so, it is forecast to help freeze the upper pattern in place. This should lead to a day with very similar conditions to Friday. Clear skies, temperatures in the 80s and 90s, and breezy winds around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are forecast. More of the area around the Tri-State border may see calmer winds as the surface low may expand slightly more to the south and east. This may inhibit critical fire weather conditions if the strongest winds can then be offset of the driest air again. Saturday night, the winds are forecast to remain elevated as the upper trough begins to slowly try and push a little more east, pushing the surface low center closer to the area. This should lead to another night with temperatures in the 60s and 70s, especially with a bit more mid-high level cloud cover.

Sunday, the pattern is forecast to remain stagnant still. The main change is that the surface low is forecast to become more diffuse over the area as the upper trough digs a bit further southwest. This should cause the winds to weaken through the day, with speeds dropping to around 5-10 mph in the afternoon or evening. Otherwise, temperatures again will be in the 80s and 90s while a few mid to high level clouds push through the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 254 AM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

For Monday through Thursday, the upper-level trough swings through from the southwest that could potentially bring in a cold front Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. This pattern should bring chances of showers into the area. with the chances of showers, it is unclear exactly where and when these showers will be. However, the showers will likely be light over the area. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and then 60s. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the cold front as it could either slow down or speed up. If the cold front slows down, we could expect showers to be later in Thursday with warmer temperatures. However, if the cold front speeds up we will have showers much earlier than expected with the majority of the showers happening on Wednesday and cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1108 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period with clear skies. There may be some brief low level wind shear through the first 6 hours with speed 300-500 ft up reaching ~30-35 kts. However, the forecast is for these speeds to lower through the remainder of the night. Winds at the surface should remain from the south/southeast at 10 kts until close to 18Z. Speed should then reach 10-20 kts with a few gusts near 30 kts. Finally, low level wind shear is much more likely tonight with 40-45 kts winds around 300-400ft forecast after 02-03Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.