textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures today, then cooling slightly on Wednesday and Thursday to closer to normal.

- Dry conditions continue.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1210 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

Upper ridge weakens today as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest. The accompanying surface cold front will move through the area tonight. No precipitation is expected and the only sensible weather impacts will be a wind shift to the northwest with the frontal passage and slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday. An amplified ridge over the Great Basin will move into the Rockies and adjacent Plains on Thursday with dry conditions continuing.

Temperatures will be above normal today with highs in the mid to upper 60s, cooling slightly on Wednesday to the lower 60s, followed by 50s and 60s on Thursday, warmest in Colorado. Low temperatures will be mainly in the 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 257 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

Model guidance shows consistency in a ridge being over the forecast region Friday morning, as troughing begins to enter the Western United States. A shortwave trough at 850-mb, as seen in GEFS mean-spread guidance, supports winds out of the south to southeast throughout the day. NBM guidance suggests these winds will be 10-15 MPH and gusting 20-25 MPH, though an NBM overestimation bias would suggest winds on the lower ends of these ranges. High temperatures are currently forecast in the lower 50s to mid 60s, with the lowest temperatures across eastern areas (along and east of U.S. Highway 83). However, there is a large spread in 75th and 25th percentile high temperatures from the NBM of 10-15 degrees across most of the forecast area. Temperatures in the cooler zone may be allowed to reach into the 60s depending on how much solar heating takes place. LREF guidance currently suggests around a 50-70% chance that cloud cover is below 10% in this area, which could provide the warmer conditions. No hazards are expected Friday, though overnight lows may drop to around freezing.

Ensemble guidance continues to show upper ridging in place Saturday, though troughing continues to approach the area. Southerly flow will still likely be in place, with similar wind speeds to Friday. Forecast highs are in the mid 50s to lower 60s again, though LREF guidance shows only a 10-20% chance for cloud cover below 10%. This would suggest temperatures slightly cooler than Friday, but still at or above average (average high is 55).

The main system to monitor in the long term is the approaching trough set to come through between Saturday night and Sunday. LREF clusters, particularly the GEFS and ENS members, have increasingly shown this feature as a modestly deep shortwave. Investigating further, roughly the bottom 25% of members from both the GEFS and ENS show this deeper trough, alongside a surface low that would reach around 1000 mb or lower. These solutions are linked to high temperatures mainly below 50 on Sunday, despite the current forecast of upper 50s and lower 60s. Additionally, these solutions show rainfall around a few tenths of an inch between Saturday night and Sunday. However, the most extreme members (bottom 5%) are the ones that can provide the higher impacts, particularly because they show high temperatures around freezing alongside some wintry precipitation. The most reasonable scenario, with about 75% confidence, is continued average or above temperatures with perhaps some scattered light precipitation, though it's still something to keep an eye on in case the extreme scenario occurs. Confidence in a case with wintry precipitation is 5% or less.

Once this shortwave feature passes, ensembles show ridging returning to the area. Forecast highs continue to remain in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday and Tuesday, though this is up to question, as high temperatures will depend on how the Saturday night and Sunday scenario plays out. Additionally, guidance shows another storm system beginning to enter the area at the end of the forecast period. It is currently unknown what this system will be capable of at this time, as the atmosphere will undergo potentially significant modification before then.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 405 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.