textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms are possible this evening and into the overnight hours, mainly north of I-70. A severe storm or two may occur.

- Chance for widespread severe weather Saturday with storms forecast to form during the afternoon and evening hours. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible.

- Flash flooding is also possible late Saturday with heavy rain and multiple rounds of storms possible.

- Severe weather potential continues to exist Sunday through Wednesday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1214 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Today, the pattern does not change much as a high over the Mid- Mississippi River Valley keeps a low in the lee of the Rockies in place a lot and highs look to warm into the 80s. Gusts are forecast to be in the 15-25 kts range across most of the area. There are signs of a 305K front and a pushing across the CWA in the afternoon hours. This produces a 20-30% chance of showers and storms across the area before 0Z. Severe weather is not likely from this convection, but a collapsing storm may form some gusts in the 45-50 kts range.

This evening, a 500 mb shortwave trough coming over the Rockies will support some additional scattered convection across the western portions of the CWA. This would likely wind up being a few storms coming off the Palmer Divide before they decay as they approach the KS border. Hail up to 1.25 inches and winds up to 65 MPH. Peak time for any severe convection will be between 1-6Z.

Tonight, temperatures are forecast to cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s, with warmest temperatures in the southeastern CWA. This is largely in part to the ongoing moisture advection. This may also lead to some patchy fog forming in the northeastern CWA Saturday morning. Dense fog is possible, but not likely at this point.

Saturday, we expect to see the low to finally move away from the Rockies and move across the Central Plains. Highs Saturday are forecast to warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s, with warmest locations in the southwestern CWA. The temperatures will be fairly dependent on how strong the WAA is during the day. Thanks to that low moving east, the pressure gradient will increase, allowing southerly winds to gust into the 25-33 kts range.

In the mid-afternoon is when we expect to see the bulk of that low enter the western CWA. This is when we expect to see convection begin, likely around 21-23Z. Initially, a broken line of convection looks to fire on the west side of the Colorado border, extending across the entire length of the CWA. Within 2-4 hours, it looks to morph into a messy QLCS with additional cells potentially forming ahead of the storm and being ingested. This increases the risk for merging cells/tornadoes. The convection looks to exit the CWA around 9Z to the east. Peak severe threat looks to be between 0-6Z, when all hazards will be possible, including hail, wind, blowing dust, flash flooding, and a tornado or two. Most significant, realistic hazards look to include hail up to or exceeding 3.5 inches, winds nearing 70-80 MPH, multiple tornadoes, and a wall of dust created from outflow. For more information about the flooding threat, please see the hydro section below.

Saturday night, as convection and the low finally exits the CWA, winds will weaken and become northerly. Lingering cloud cover will work to keep lows pretty similar to the night before, maybe even a few degrees higher. There is a returning chance for patchy fog Sunday morning.

Sunday, another 500 mb low will create another 850 mb and surface low that will sweep across the southern portions of the Northern Plains. This will extend a cold front through the CWA, likely sparking off more storms in the afternoon hours. Before that, highs are expected to be nearly identical to Saturdays, maybe a few degrees cooler. Convection looks to start near the northwestern CWA border and move to the southeast. 21-23Z looks to be the start time, and there may be a second wave of convection that follows behind by a couple of hours. Hail up around 1.5 inches and winds up around 70 MPH are the primary threats. Convection looks to weaken around 9Z again. Lows Sunday night do look to be a bit cooler Sunday night behind the cold front, likely dropping into the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

***Synopsis***

A 500-mb trough looks to be moving eastward across the Montana Rockies through early portions of the day Monday. At the same time, a shortwave ridge looks to be overhead. There are indications of a surface low existing south of the trough in Colorado. The trough is favored to come through the area sometime Tuesday morning. The feature may linger in the area into Wednesday, though ensemble guidance suggests that upper-level ridging may begin moving in around this time. From here, forecast certainty decreases, as model guidance is uncertain whether shortwave troughs will come across the Rockies, or ridging will persist through the end of the period.

***Monday-Wednesday***

Thunderstorms appear possible Monday afternoon and into the night hours as a consequence of the surface low to the west of the CWA. These storms may be associated with modest amounts of instability of a few hundred to around 1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE (convective available potential energy) according to LREF guidance, though some higher end scenarios may promote greater than 2000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical wind shear may develop across the region during the late afternoon and evening hours as the 40-50 kt 500-mb jet streak sets up overhead. Model ECMWF and GFS soundings suggest that storms may be associated with 40-60 kts of 0-6 km shear as a byproduct of this upper-level jet. Stronger storms may produce severe hail and wind, though environmental modifications in the short term in addition to uncertainties regarding the synoptic evolution may heavily influence what storms are capable of. Storms appear most likely across portions of Eastern Colorado, Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests a 50-70% chance across this zone to experience greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Monday. Considering the amount of variables that could influence Monday's event, confidence in severe weather occurring is around 10-15%. High temperatures on Monday are currently in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Thunderstorms look to be in play again Tuesday and Wednesday. LREF guidance suggests that up to 2500 J/kg of CAPE is reasonable both days, with ECMWF and GFS model soundings continuing to favor 40-60 kts of 0-6 km wind shear in association with the 500-mb jet streak. Severe hail and wind may continue to be possible with thunderstorms. Much of the forecast region has a 50-70% chance to experience greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation both Tuesday and Wednesday from thunderstorm activity based on NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance. Confidence in severe weather continues to remain around 10- 15%. High temperatures may drop slightly from Monday into the 70s across the area both Tuesday and Wednesday.

***Thursday-Friday***

Forecast certainty declines considerably by Thursday. GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance is consistent with ridging moving in overhead Thursday and Friday, though deterministic guidance, particularly from the GFS, suggests that shortwave troughs may also move through the area during this time period. Ridging would support conditions beginning to warm again, with highs forecast in the upper 70s and lower 80s Thursday, and 80s on Friday. A southerly moisture return may continue to support thunderstorm activity, especially if the shortwave troughs traverse the area. Even so, NBM guidance shows chances for precipitation decreasing by Thursday, as only zones in Southwest Nebraska and along US-283 in Kansas have a 50-60% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation. This trend continues on Friday, with all areas at less than a 45% chance. Confidence in a severe event Thursday or Friday is low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 448 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions have finally won out this afternoon, and are expected to prevail until the overnight hours at KGLD and KMCK. Showers and thunderstorms may move throughout the region this afternoon and evening, as they will for the next several days. We are expecting near minimum conditions at both KGLD and KMCK near sunrise Saturday, with conditions improving around 15Z. Be prepared for strong and severe storms to move through the region Saturday afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.