textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the entire area through this morning.

- Mild conditions are forecast, but fog is possible each morning through at least Saturday.

- An active weather pattern may develop late this week, bringing potential for more widespread precipitation throughout the weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1246 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Current observations have another foggy night for a greater majority of the Tri-State area with low level moisture wrapping from the east/southeast. The fog is likely to stay in place for a majority of the morning, clearing out when the winds shift to out of the west/northwest. This should be driven by an upper trough sliding northeast across the Northern Plains and shift the surface low and a cold front through the area. By the mid to late afternoon, skies should be clear across the area with temperatures around 70 with the low/front through the area.

The clear skies are forecast to continue into the evening hours as colder air and higher pressure move in from the north. This should allow temperatures to cool pretty quickly into the 40s for most of the area. However, the winds are forecast to shift back to out of the east/southeast and allow for low level moisture advection. This should develop some more fog in the area, likely starting in small patches within NW Kansas. Closer to sunrise, enough moisture should have moved in for most of the area to be under fog and dense fog again.

Thursday, the fog should carry over into the morning hours and slowly burn off as the sun gets higher in the sky. Similar to recent days, the fog should dissipate from west to east. That being said, the development of a surface low on the lee of the Rockies is forecast to strengthen the low level easterly flow. While may a bit stronger than what is favorable for fog, it should help keep the upslope component and moisture advection. This could keep fog and/or cloud cover over eastern portions of the area for a majority of the day. With this, highs for the eastern part of the area may struggle to hit 60, while the rest of the area reaches the mid to upper 60s.

Thursday night and into Friday morning, the fog is likely to return as long the as the surface low doesn't nudge into the area and bring a dry slot. For now, the forecast will have fog develop in patches of the area with cloudy skies otherwise from high level clouds in the upper southwest flow. This should keep temperatures in the 40s and 50s for a majority of the night.

Friday, any fog that formed overnight should linger through most of the morning hours and maybe even into the afternoon hours. The pattern is not forecast to change much with broad upper level southwest flow and the area between surface low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east. With the continued southeasterly low level flow, moisture should advect in and keep most of the area under cloud cover. This could cap temperatures more in the 40s and 50s. For now though, a slight break in the clouds is forecast during the afternoon as a shortwave moves through with temperatures warming to near 60. This shortwave is also forecast to provide a chance for some rain. While there should be plenty of moisture available for the upper forcing to help spark some rain showers, the continued cloud cover should inhibit instability build up and keep things as showers. For now, this is leading to rain forecast totals around a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch, favoring those along and east of Highway 83. Fog would then likely redevelop over night into early Saturday morning, unless the precipitation remains persistent and helps mix the lower levels.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 337 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Rain chances continue into Saturday morning as southwesterly flow aloft continues to eject embedded shortwaves across the area. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 30% for the northeast county warning area (CWA) through Saturday evening. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s with lows in the 40s, so rain is the expected precipitation type for any showers that are able to form. We could see some fog as dewpoints are forecast in the 50s. Southeasterly surface winds could advect additional moisture into the area, increasing chances for fog.

For Sunday, high temperatures are forecast in the 50s to 60s. Storm chances start Sunday evening with PoPs of 50-75% increasing west to east. Precipitation type will likely be rain based on forecast temperatures and lack of instability in the environment.

Upper-level features are likely to send us into a more active weather pattern Sunday evening through at least Tuesday. A deep trough is forecast to extend from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) southeast with a second trough not too far behind it in the western Pacific. As these features propogate east, it will allow the subtropical jet to drift north placing a strong jet streak across the region Sunday. Models also show a surface low set up in eastern Colorado and propogate east sometime Sunday evening or Monday. Ensembles show the surface low setting up somewhere in the Central Plains or the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. The interaction, track and evolution of these surface and upper-level feathers will play a major role in our weather pattern heading into the work week. Currently, models diverge on how these interactions will play out.

The upper-level pattern could support a high wind event Monday and Tuesday, but the big question will be where the surface low tracks and the amount of cloud cover across the CWA. Clear skies will allow stronger winds to mix down to the surface while clouds will keep the winds above the surface. If we end up with clear skies and a low further south or east of the CWA, we could see wind gusts up to 60 mph Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Dust would be unlikely for areas that received precipitation over the weekend and current forecast lapse rates are unsupportive of dust being lofted. A low tracking over the CWA would likely increase precipitation chances and cloud cover, overall lowering risk for strong winds. Low confidence in which scenario will play out. It will heavily depend on the track and evolution of the aforementioned upper-level troughs over the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 517 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

For KGLD... Dense fog was in place through much of the early morning. The dense fog will likely continue until about 13-15Z, with areas west of the terminal beginning to clear around 11Z. Once the fog clears, clear skies and VFR conditions are forecast through much of the remainder of the period. Dense fog may be possible again tonight after 09Z, though it may stay south of the terminal.

For KMCK... Low ceilings and patchy fog are forecast to continue until around 15Z. During this time, ceilings may vary between 500-2000ft. After 15Z, skies should either clear, or ceilings lift to 3000ft or higher. VFR conditions are then forecast through the remainder of the period. While only a 10% chance for now, dense fog may try and move in tonight after 06Z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029. CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092. NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for NEZ079>081.