textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening in Colorado and perhaps adjacent areas of Kansas through this evening.

- Hot, dry and breezy over the weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Clearing has occurred in eastern Colorado and one column of counties into Kansas and Nebraska as of 18z. Some further clearing may occur a bit further east, but it will be slow to occur with a moist southeasterly surface wind. In the clear areas, very unstable conditions will develop with 2000-3000 j/kg of SBCAPE expected and pockets of up to 5000 j/kg suggested by the models in northeast Colorado. Effective bulk shear in those areas is forecast to reach 35 kts by later this afternoon. A weak shortwave will eject out of a digging trough in the Great Basin across northeast Colorado this afternoon and evening providing synoptic scale lift. CAMs show convective initiation occurring along the Front Range 20-22z then migrating across the eastern plains and reaching the Kansas border area 00-01z, then continuing into areas mainly south of Interstate 70 in northwest Kansas through about 06z. Initial discrete cells in Colorado will likely be supercells with a risk of large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado, then transitioning to mainly a wind threat this evening as they move into a more stable environment after peak heating.

Overnight, patchy fog may develop once again in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, persisting into early Saturday morning before dissipating. A warm front/dry line draped along the Kansas and Colorado border area in the morning will try to move east through the day on Saturday, but stall out somewhere between Highways 27 and 25 by the afternoon. CAMs initiate convection along the dry line in northeast Colorado late in the afternoon with another shortwave embedded in the southwest flow aloft, but it appears to be too capped further south in Kansas and Nebraska. Some of the storms that develop in Colorado could clip the far northern parts of the area in the afternoon and evening, generally north of Highway 34, with right mover motion taking them east. Environmental parameters continue to support supercells along/east of the dry line with over 3000 j/kg of SBCAPE of 50 kts of deep layer shear. Coverage looks to be isolated, however, and any threat should quickly be out of the area by 03z. Otherwise, it will be hot, dry and breezy, particularly west of the dry line where southwest winds will gust between 30-40 mph in the afternoon and temperatures will be in the 90s. Fire weather concerns are not expected due to unfavorable fuels from recent rain.

The dry line continues to push east on Sunday with just about the entire area on the hot, dry and breezy side. Not expecting any convection with the main upper flow displaced west in Colorado away from the dry line. Temperatures will warm into the 90s once again with a few triple digits possible. Fuels will continue to cure but not expecting fire weather conditions through Sunday. Not seeing much change in the general pattern on Monday. A closed upper low will be over eastern Montana with a potent vorticity lobe rotating from northern Colorado in the morning to the northern plains in the afternoon. Further south, hot, dry and breezy conditions continue. Fire weather may become more of a concern after fuels have had several days to dry out.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 152 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be fairly consistent for our county warning area (CWA). Persistent southwest upper-level flow is forecast to be over the region through at least Friday. This will result in warm temperatures and a windy work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s with some areas in the southern CWA seeing low 100s through Friday. Expect the afternoons to be windy with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible. The western portion of the CWA will be on the higher side of wind gusts. Embedded shortwaves will bring afternoon precipitation chances each day, but Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are only around 25% each afternoon.

Fire weather conditions will be the big question for next week. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to fall into the teens across the western CWA accompanied by strong afternoon winds. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are forecast in the high to extreme category. However, given the recent substantial rainfall, fuels may remain unreceptive, which could mitigate the overall fire weather threat despite the hot, dry, and windy conditions. We will have to watch how much fuels dry out over the weekend to better determine fire weather potential for next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 433 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

At KGLD... widely scattered thunderstorms have a low probability (around 20%) of impacting KGLD between 00-04z this evening with brief gusty winds and reduced visibility. Otherwise, VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period.

At KMCK... low ceilings likely to persist through tonight and into Sunday morning. Patchy fog overnight and early Saturday morning may briefly reduce visibilities. A return to VFR is not expected until Sunday afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.