textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms are possible during the late afternoon and evening hours through Friday, mainly in eastern CO and nearby KS-NE border counties. Low confidence in storm development and coverage, similar to previous days.

- Near average temperatures today and Thursday followed by a warming trend, with highs peaking in the mid-upper 90's on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

For Wednesday through Friday, more of the same in what has become a stagnant pattern. Weak forcing from embedded waves in the zonal to northwest flow around the ridge will have 1000-1500 j/kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of deep layer shear to work with each afternoon. CAMs show convection originating on the higher terrain to the west and rotating in during the late afternoon and evening hours. Overnight, the low level jet will maintain a threat of elevated convection, especially in eastern areas, possibly lingering into early the next morning. The overall severe threat will be marginal at best, weighted in Colorado and adjacent counties of Kansas and Nebraska during the afternoon and evening hours when instability and shear will be maximized. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, with a few instances of large hail also possible. Overnight storms will pose mainly a marginally severe hail threat with plentiful MUCAPE remaining.

On Saturday the upper ridge will make a significant push eastward into the Central Plains, stretching from north Texas to Missouri by Saturday night. Under the ridge, both instability and deep layer shear will be lower. Weak instability of 500-750 j/kg is forecast Saturday afternoon with deep layer shear of 10-20 kts. Convective initiation will be limited to the mountains and Front Range where southwest flow will be in place. Some of that convection may eventually reach the area Saturday night, but with a northeasterly storm motion it may take until mid to late evening to reach far northeast Colorado. Convection should be weakening by then and the probability of severe weather will be low, mainly wind from any decaying shower or storm.

Temperatures show a gradual warming trend through the period: near normal on Thursday, slightly above normal on Friday and above normal on Saturday under the ridge with upper 90s to around 100 possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 231 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Synoptically, on Sunday the upper level ridge begins to set up over the SE CONUS while a trough begins to move into the Pacific Northwest. This change will transition our upper level flow to be primarily out of the west to southwest. During this period, shortwaves are expected to move through the area, potentially increasing precipation chances.

Throughout the period, high temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 90s. Sunday is currently forecast to be the warmest day, with highs in the 90s for the majority of the CWA. Areas east of Hwy 83 have the best chance of seeing triple digits temperatures on Sunday. The "coolest" day is currently forecast to be Monday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Winds are expected to mainly remain calm through the early part of the week.

Regarding precipitation, there is potential for showers and storms each afternoon. Sunday and Monday currently have the highest potential with PoPs, ranging from 25-50% across the area. As for severe potential, while shear values appear to be decent, guidance suggests that CAPE values may limit storm development. This could result in more showers than storms. From Tuesday onward, precipitation chances begin to taper off, with PoPs in the 10-20% range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1114 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Main aviation concern will be scattered thunderstorms tonight through Thursday morning. Best chances at KGLD will be from mid to late evening and best chances at KMCK will be late overnight into early Thursday morning. Brief gusty winds and reductions in visibility and ceilings can be expected during any thunderstorm.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.