textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Light wintry precipitation is expected tonight. Potential for slick, icy surfaces Wednesday morning continues to increase.

- Highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast through the next week, except Wednesday which will be in the 40s and 50s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 240 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Through the day today, we're in a bit of a lull, as our next trough moves over the northern Rockies, towards the Tri-State area. We will see a cold front enter the area around 18Z, but it will be less eventful than yesterday's. West of KS 27, northerly winds behind the front may gust up to 30 kts by 21Z, but then weaken over the following couple of hours. Highs are forecast to climb into the mid 50s under increasing cloud cover today.

This evening, around 0Z, our next 500 mb trough pushes into the area as does 850 mb moisture. This is expected to lead to light precipitation across most of the area between 0-15Z Wednesday. Most of the precipitation looks to fall between 4-12Z, but may start as early as 21Z in the far northeastern CWA. There is a 25% chance that no precipitation occurs due to a combination of forcing being weaker than currently expected and a dry layer near the surface, leading to only virga.

Likely (75% confidence), QPF will be less than 0.05 inch. Temperatures are forecast to be well above freezing when the precipitation begins, causing rain to be the dominant precipitation type until at least 6Z. After 6Z is when the P-type gets interesting. If precipitation occurs, there is a 20-30% chance freezing rain will occur 6-15Z. Most likely area to see this ice threat would be east of KS 25, and along and north of U.S. 40. If freezing rain occurs, expect rapid accumulation of ice on nearly all surfaces. Additionally, Wednesday morning as the 700 mb moisture dries out, there is a 10% chance low-level moisture remains in the CWA with some light forcing. This would lead to freezing drizzle, mainly in Norton and Graham counties, which would lead to extra icing. If this ice solution plays out, between the early rain, becoming black ice, freezing rain, and freezing drizzle, ice accumulations of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch should be expected. This would lead to extremely slick surfaces, heavily impacting travel. There is about a 25% chance of this scenario occurring.

The more likely scenario is the rain becomes a rain/snow mix, before becoming mostly snow by Wednesday morning. This will also create a risk for black ice forming early in the morning, and a dusting of snow. The biggest hazard would be the black ice formation as freezing rain and freezing drizzle would not occur. This has about a 50% chance of playing out.

In either case, areas east of a line from Trenton, NE to Oakley, KS are forecast to see the most precipitation and worst conditions. Additionally, CAMs are showing some weak instability in this area, which could lead to increased precipitation efficiency and a rouge lightning strike.

Ending time for the bulk of the precipitation will be around 12Z Wednesday, but drizzle or very light precipitation may persist until as late as 18Z in the far eastern CWA. Thankfully, highs during the day are expected to warm to around 50, allowing any frozen precipitation to melt rather quickly.

During the day Wednesday, a strong ridge over the Great Basin will put us in northwesterly flow aloft. This will creating a blocking pattern as the ridge moves over the Great Plains, allowing temperatures to be unseasonably warm and reducing precipitation chances to basically 0 for the rest of the short-term.

Thursday, as a dry 850 mb trough moves over the Great Plains, a moderate pressure gradient looks to set up. This would produce an 850 mb LLJ of around 30-45 kts around 12Z that weakens throughout the day. We likely will not be mixing well that early in the morning, but as we heat up throughout the day, the LLJ will weaken. By the time we will be mixing into the 850 mb LLJ, it'll be around 25-35 kts, which could allow similarly strong gusts to mix to the surface. This does create some elevated fire weather concerns, as RH values will be around 20% in eastern Colorado. However, Red Flag criteria is not likely to be met.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 152 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Friday, our region is in a predominately northwest flow pattern with a ridge over the Intermountain West and a low developing off the coast of Baja California. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Winds are forecast to be mild and variable for most of Friday, but will briefly pick up Friday afternoon. A weak shortwave moving through the area will cause gusts from 15-20 mph for the northwest portion of the county warning area (CWA). Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast in the upper teens for our Colorado counties, but with overall weaker wind gusts and Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values below 15 for our Colorado counties, critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

Saturday and Sunday are fairly similar as a ridge continues to be in place over the Intermountain West placing us in a mostly zonal flow. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Winds pick up briefly in the afternoon mainly for our Colorado counties. Saturday will be the windiest day out of the weekend with gusts from 25-30 mph forecast. Winds will quickly diminish after sunset. RH values are forecast in the upper teens and GFDI values are forecast around 30 for western Kit Carson and Yuma counties. This combination could result in a brief window of elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon.

The ridge finally begins to propagate through our CWA Monday. Temperatures will still be above average with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s, but this ridge moving through sets the stage for a potential pattern change next week. We will monitor this synoptic setup for precipitation potential as the week continues.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 328 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

KGLD is expected to see VFR conditions prevail through the period, but there is a 20-30% chance a rain/snow mix clips the airport early tomorrow morning. If this occurs, MVFR conditions should be expected, as well as a high icing threat. Today, a cold front will move through the region and to the west, wind gusts around 25 kts are likely. These winds have a 20% chance of making it to KGLD around 18-21Z this afternoon.

KMCK will also see the cold front move through, but winds will be weak as the center of the low will be nearby KMCK. KMCK should be prepared for precipitation starting this evening as rain becoming a wintry mix overnight. There will be a high risk of low level and a low risk of surfaces level icing. MVFR conditions should be expected during the precipitation, but brief IFR conditions cannot be ruled out.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.