textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry and breezy through the beginning of the work week.

- Isolated storm chances Monday in eastern areas, with more scattered storms in the entire area Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe chances will be low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Fairly stagnant upper pattern will continue with the main features being a ridge over the Mississippi River Valley and a trough over the Great Basin. This will result in southwest flow over the Central Plains. A cut off low over Montana today and tomorrow will lift into Canada by Tuesday, weakening the flow over the plains. Embedded impulses in the southwest flow will result in scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances. Convection initiates on various surface boundaries either near or south of the area, including an old frontal boundary, the dry line and lee trough. CAMs suggest that the convection on Monday will probably stay just east of the area, but appears to be better chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with the storms moving out of southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. The environment will be weakly to moderately unstable each day, highest values in eastern areas. Deep layer shear will be strongest on Monday, around 40 kts, but weakens Tuesday and Wednesday with the diminished winds aloft. If storms can develop in the area on Monday then may see a severe threat in far eastern areas (Norton and Graham counties in northwest Kansas) where highest instability will reside. Those threats would be large hail and damaging winds if they were to develop. While coverage may be somewhat higher Tuesday and Wednesday, the weakening shear will probably result in pulse updrafts which may briefly reach low end severe criteria for hail but perhaps present a greater wind threat given favorable DCAPE in the hot and relatively dry environment. Temperatures through the period will continue above normal with highs mostly in the 90s with a few spots reaching triple digits.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

***Thursday/Friday***

GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance is in favor of troughing across the Western United States with an upper-level high across the east Thursday morning. This would support southwesterly flow aloft over the County Warning Area (CWA), and a broad surface low across the Central High Plains. Deepening of the surface low due to lee cyclogenesis and warming at 700-mb, along with a pronounced high in the Southeastern United States, would establish moderate to strong southerly flow across the area. Winds are currently forecast to sustain between 10 and 20 kts (12-23 mph), with gusts between 30 and 35 mph possible. Hot conditions are forecast, with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s Thursday afternoon.

Just south of the surface low, winds may be a bit more southwesterly than southerly, which would promote dryer conditions, particularly across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas. Relative humidities (RH) are currently forecast as low as the single- digits Thursday afternoon. Additionally, NBM guidance suggests that this zone has a 40% chance or greater to experience wind gusts that meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions (>25 mph), with as high as a 75% chance in Southwest Kit Carson and Northwest Cheyenne Counties in Colorado. Even so, elevated amounts of precipitation experienced recently may keep critical fire weather conditions to a minimum, depending on how much vegetation can dry out. If significant drying is allowed to occur across this area, then a Red Flag Warning may be needed Thursday afternoon.

Conditions look to be a bit more moist along and east of Kansas Highway 25, where showers and thunderstorms may develop along a dryline. Up to 3000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) may be in place across this area based on LREF guidance, though 0-500mb wind shear is forecast to be around 35 kts on the high end. As such, the strongest thunderstorms are forecast to be marginally severe.

Similar conditions to Thursday are forecast on Friday, with highs in the upper 90s to mid 100s. Dry conditions across East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas may continue, with gusts 25-30 mph still possible. However, thunderstorms are not in the forecast across eastern portions of the forecast area Friday. NBM guidance suggests less than a 10% chance for all areas to see greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation Friday.

***Saturday/Sunday***

Ensemble guidance supports upper-level troughing from the west moving in overhead sometime Saturday. This would produce northerly surface winds across the forecast region as the associated surface low moves eastward. Conditions may cool slightly, with highs forecast in the low 90s to low 100s Saturday, and low to mid 90s Sunday. Dry conditions may linger across East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas Saturday, with RH still in the low to mid teens in some places. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast again Saturday as well, with LREF guidance suggesting up to 3500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE possible. The same guidance suggests 0-500mb shear may reach 35-40 kts across Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas where storms would form. Some storms may be allowed to become severe under this scenario. As ridging and a surface high moves in on Sunday, dry conditions may continue to diminish, along with the mitigation of thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 447 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Southerly surface winds will gust up to 30 kts at times tonight and Monday.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.