textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms capable of producing 2 inch diameter hail, 75 mph wind gusts, and a brief tornado are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM MDT.

- Locations that received heavy rain during the past 24-hr are more prone to experience flash flooding, should additional heavy rain occur this afternoon.

- Severe storms capable of producing 2 inch diameter hail and 70 mph wind gusts are possible during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1208 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Today, a 500 mb low will create an 850 mb and surface low that will sweep across the southern portions of the Northern Plains. This will extend a cold front through the CWA, sparking off more storms in the afternoon hours. Highs are expected to be near 80 in the northeastern CWA, but near 90 in the southwestern CWA.

Convection looks to just north of Yuma and Dundy counties, and move southeast. Additional convection will fire in off as a broken line to the southwest. As of 18Z, there is a Cu field forming in this area, which will become storms over the next couple of hours. Hail up around in the 1-2 inch range will be the main threat early on, but if a storm can really tap into the shear and CAPE, 3 inch hail will be possible. The tornadic threat is fairly similar, a bigger hazard early on. This does not look to be a great tornadic environment as hodographs are a little too straight. Winds are a threat through the whole event, but more so as the broken line grows together. Most likely winds will be in the 60-70 MPH range, but winds up to 80-85 MPH are possible. Convection looks to weaken around 3Z, with lingering showers potentially lasting until after 6Z.

Lows tonight do look to be a bit cooler Sunday night behind the cold front, likely dropping into the 50s. Fog and stratus are likely again overnight.

Monday, the northwesterly flow aloft persists and sends another shortwave across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Highs look to warm into the mid 70s in the northeastern CWA and mid 80s in the southwestern CWA. Convection looks to fire off the front range and Palmer Divide around 21-23Z and move east into the area. These CAMs are showing these storms decaying before they exit Colorado, but looking at CAPE and shear, they may continue into Nebraska and Kansas. Hail is the primary threat with these storms, up to 2 inches, and winds up to 60-70 MPH are possible. There is a low tornado risk, too. Additional sub-severe convection may trail these storms and linger into the overnight hours. The severe threat looks to end around 3-5Z.

Lows tomorrow night look to cool into the 50s, maybe low 60s. Fog and stratus may return again.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

***Tuesday-Wednesday***

A 500-mb trough looks to be moving across the Northern United States Tuesday, with a modest 40-55 kt jet streak at its base. The trough axis looks to be moving through the area throughout the day. At the same time, GEFS 850-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests the presence of a low in Colorado. Southerly flow from the low in Colorado would meet northerly flow underneath the trough axis, creating a convergence zone across the forecast region. Thunderstorms may be possible with this setup. LREF guidance suggests that up to 3000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) may be in place. In addition, GFS and EC model soundings suggest that 0-6 km vertical shear around 40-50 kts is reasonably possible due to the 500-mb jet streak. This may allow thunderstorms to become severe, with primary hazards including high wind and large hail. This pattern may linger into Wednesday, which may continue to promote severe thunderstorms with similar hazards. Confidence in severe weather occurring is highest on Tuesday around 15-20%.

***Thursday-Sunday***

Ridging looks to begin moving in overhead sometime Thursday. Shortwave troughs embedded in the ridge may allow thunderstorms to stick around on Thursday and possibly Friday, though chances begin to decrease dramatically after Thursday. The entire County Warning Area (CWA) has a 50-70% chance of seeing greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation from Thursday's activity based on NBM 24-hr precipitation guidance. Whether or not these storms are allowed to become severe depends on the positioning and strength of the 500-mb jet. LREF 90th percentile guidance suggests that winds at 500-mb could still reach 30-40 kts, though it appears likely that the jet will be weaker on Thursday than that of Tuesday and Wednesday. If this is the case, the severe potential could be a bit lower Thursday. Confidence in severe weather occurring Thursday is down to about 5-10%.

By Friday, all areas across the forecast region have a 1 in 3 chance or less to experience greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation according to NBM 24-hr precipitation guidance. This decreases to less than 10% Saturday and Sunday. In addition, as troughing sets up across the West Coast during the weekend, temperatures look to begin warming again. Highs are forecast in the mid 80s to lower 90s on Friday, and low to upper 90s on Saturday and Sunday. As this heating occurs and moisture moves off to the east, dry conditions look to set in. Forecast guidance suggests that portions of East-Central Colorado may see relative humidities (RH) drop into the low to mid teens Saturday and Sunday. Wind gusts may be allowed to reach the 25 to 30 mph range across this zone, which could implicate critical fire weather as a concern. However, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed either day is around 5% or less, as both RH values and wind gusts are just meeting criteria for the hazard. Additionally, precipitation over the next several days may help counter the incoming dry conditions. Even so, this development will be something to keep an eye on as we approach the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The ceilings are slowing lifting and breaking across the region. KMCK and KGLD are expected to return to VFR conditions by 20Z. Winds look to be chaotic this afternoon, shifting from southwesterly to easterly before more storms move in during the afternoon hours. Once the convection clears, around 3Z, MVFR to IFR ceilings return around 9Z and will persist until after sunrise.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Over the next week, we are looking at near daily chances of convection as PWATs range around 0.9-1.75 inch. We are also expecting 0C level to be around 15,000 feet AGL, leading to deep melting layers, promoting efficient rainfall producing storms.

Recent precipitation totals (preliminary) along a line from Trenton, NE to Grinnell, KS range from 3-6 inches. Additionally, areas in southern Rawlins and northern Thomas county range around 2.5-5 inches. These locations will be at the highest risk for additional flooding and flash flooding to occur this afternoon and evening.

A Flood Watch has not been issued due to a lack of confidence that tonight's storms will produce more than 1-1.5 inches of rain. Guidance is also highlighting areas to the east of the saturated locations, reducing the potential for compounding flood risks. Current confidence in additional flash flooding occurring this afternoon and evening is around 30-40%.

Through Friday, there are returning chances of precipitation across the CWA. If storms keep passing over the same, saturated areas, flooding becomes a reoccurring risk.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.