textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the overnight with locally gusty winds possible.

- Some concerns for fire weather conditions next week as temperatures warm to much above normal with a building ridge aloft.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow will make its way through the area overnight and into Sunday morning, with scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Some gusty winds will still be possible especially with a cluster of storms moving across areas south if Interstate 70, but with little to no instability no severe storms are anticipated. Clouds will slowly start to clear north to south through the morning and early afternoon hours and high temperatures may stay slightly cooler south of I-70 as a result. Any lingering showers should end by that time as well. Tonight will be mostly clear but with a return flow/southwesterly winds developing late temperatures will stay well above freezing.

Fro Monday and Tuesday, an upper ridge will move from southern California to the Four Corners, resulting in rising heights across the central plains and weakening the northwest flow. A shortwave trough moving out of the northern Rockies will be shunted east into the northern plains and Great Lakes by the building ridge. While no precipitation is expected, it will force a cold front through the area Monday night/Tuesday morning with a wind shift to the north and northeast. Temperatures will only cool slightly on Tuesday by 5-10 degrees. There is some concern for fire weather both days as afternoon relative humidity minimums drop to around 20%. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest on Monday, then breezy out of the northeast on Tuesday morning immediately behind the front before diminishing in the afternoon. Monday seems to be the day where both parameters could potentially be met, primarily in northeast Colorado where HREF probabilities of 15% relative humidity are currently 30-50% but also where winds are lowest and HREF probabilities for 25 mph gusts are near zero. Further east winds are higher but probabilities of 15% relative humidity rapidly drop to less than 20%. So confidence is lacking at this time that critical conditions will be met (15% relative humidity with gusts to 25 mph).

Temperatures start the period on Sunday at near to slightly below normal (60s and 70s), then much above normal on Monday (mid to upper 80s), and above normal on Tuesday (upper 70s to middle 80s). Lows will be mainly in the 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

***Wednesday - Thursday Afternoon***

Warm temperatures look to continue with ridging moving in overhead Wednesday. Highs are currently forecast in the mid to upper-80s Wednesday afternoon, and upper-80s to mid-90s Thursday. Dry conditions once again seem possible, with RH in the mid-teens to upper-20s Wednesday, and mid to upper-teens Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions may once again come into play both days. Wednesday's risk appears wind-driven, with forecast guidance suggesting up to 45 mph gusts across portions of Eastern Colorado. This is consistent with the mean forecasted wind gusts from the NBM across this region in the low to mid-40s. However, these values may be biased toward the high end due to how the NBM assigns wind gusts. Additionally, this region is forecast to experience the higher end of the RH range for Wednesday (upper-teens to lower-20s). As such, fire weather risks Wednesday afternoon are favored to be marginal across this zone. Forecast guidance for Thursday afternoon suggests gusts in the 25-35 mph range are possible, with NBM guidance giving at least a 1 in 3 chance for most locations in the CWA to experience gusts meeting critical fire weather criteria. Still, RH values according to the LREF have less than a 30% chance to drop into criteria for the hazard, lowering the risk. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is around 5% for both Wednesday and Thursday.

***Thursday Night - Saturday***

Again, forecast guidance is a bit more uncertain by Thursday night due to unresolved timing of an eastward moving trough from the west. Ensemble guidance appears to favor a broader, slower-moving wave, though some deterministic guidance shows this feature as a faster- moving shortwave system. The faster propagation would promote a cold front to traverse the forecast area sometime between Thursday night and Friday morning. This activity may be associated with some light showers along the boundary, with additional precipitation opportunities behind the front Friday night and possibly into Saturday morning. The slower propagation would continue to support warm and dry conditions, with highs in the mid-80s to mid-90s, and RH as low as the mid-teens. Fire weather would continue to be a risk under this scenario until the trough from the west reaches the forecast region. The slower propagation appears highly favored at this time, as only 10th percentile and lower LREF scenarios show indications of the wave reaching the Nevada-Utah border or further by Friday morning. Confidence in the slower propagation is around 75-80% at this time, though is still something to keep an eye on as the pattern develops.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Scattered light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours with a low probability (less than 20%) of impacting either KGLD or KMCK. Some lower clouds will move into KGLD this morning with a brief period of MVFR ceilings possible through early afternoon. KMCK is expected to remain VFR.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.