textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible over a limited portion of the area this evening and early Friday morning, mainly north of I-70 and east of Hwy 83 after sunset. Damaging winds are the main hazard. A few instances of large hail cannot be ruled out. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage in the Goodland CWA.

- A few severe storms are possible Friday aft-eve, mainly north of I-70 in KS and NE. Localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are the main hazard. A few instances of marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. Low confidence in thunderstorm development and coverage in the Goodland CWA.

- Warming trend the remainder of the work week with highs approaching 100 degrees on Friday in Kansas and Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Overview: The Tri-State Area will remain situated on the eastern periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge, in NW flow aloft.

Today-Tonight: Ongoing convection at 0830Z will gradually weaken/diminish and shift east of the region this morning. Speedy NW flow aloft will begin to shift north and east of the Tri-State Area today.. as an amplifying ridge over the Rockies broadens and extends eastward over adjacent portions of the High Plains. High-res guidance suggests little or no in-situ convective development this afternoon and evening, with precipitation chances (and severe weather potential) largely tied to upstream convection in Nebraska. Both the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that scattered diurnal convection in central Nebraska (along/north of I-80) this afternoon could evolve into a cluster that propagates southward into north-central KS late this evening and overnight, potentially bringing damaging winds to northeast portions of the Goodland CWA after ~03Z / 9 pm MDT. Given that ongoing convection and convective remnants/ outflow this morning may alter environmental conditions over eastern portions of the Goodland CWA this afternoon.. and that precip chances and severe weather potential are expected to be a function of upstream convection, there is low confidence in thunderstorm coverage and evolution (i.e. whether or not an organized cluster or line of storms will emerge from central Nebraska).

Friday: Speedy NW flow aloft will shift further to the north and east as the amplifying ridge continues to broaden and extend eastward across the High Plains. Expect conditions similar to today, albeit with warmer temperatures. Very low confidence with regard to thunderstorm development and coverage. With the aforementioned ridge expanding eastward over the Tri- State Area, expect a lower potential for organized convection compared to previous days.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 124 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Starting the extended period Sunday, high pressure is forecast to be situated over the SW CONUS and looks to remain similar placed through the duration of the period. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s that are currently forecast seem reasonable at this time as the 594 dam portion of the high is currently depicted to remain southwest of the forecast area primarily across the SW CONUS. If the high can move a little further east then southwesterly may be able to occur which would raise our temperatures a little more than currently forecast. Winds may be a little breezier as a 15-20 knot 850mb jet is currently forecast to be in place. A lack of 700mb jet brings my doubts to higher wind potential at this time and any wind would mainly sustained.

The position of the high continues to keep the area in northwesterly flow as well through the period allowing for the potential for near daily chances of showers and storms for the most if not all of the area. This patter in notorious for little waves on the eastern periphery of the high to give us storm chances and with guidance currently indicating rainfall potential it does make me cautiously optimistic. However though if that high were to shift a little further east which some ensemble guidance does suggest then that would greatly limit any rainfall potential.Currently based on ensemble qpf data it seems that Tuesday may have the relatively higher potential as guidance is currently depicting a stronger wave coming off of the Rockies.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will mainly be out of the southeast and will peak around 16Z with gusts around 20 knots possible.

For KMCK, A short period of fog cannot be ruled out an hour or two on either side of sunrise this morning. Low confidence in patchy fog development. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will mainly be out of the southeast with speeds around 11 knots possible.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.