textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe weather possible late this afternoon into tonight. Very low confidence in storm development and coverage. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards. Overall, severe weather potential appears to be lower than yesterday (Thursday).

- Weekend precipitation chances mainly at night with showers and storms moving out of Colorado. Severe chances will be low with this activity.

- Heat peaks today, then slightly cooler over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Overview: NW flow aloft will gradually weaken in this period, as an amplifying upper level ridge over the Rockies expands eastward over the High Plains.

Today-Tonight: Expect sensible weather conditions similar to Thursday, albeit warmer with highs in the mid-upper 90's. Very low confidence in thunderstorm development, coverage and severe weather potential. Environmental conditions remain supportive of severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. However, in such a weak forcing regime, precipitation chances and severe weather potential will, once again, largely be tied to upstream development. High-res guidance presently suggests a potential for scattered diurnal convection on the Palmer Divide in eastern CO late this afternoon, when/where localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible with any storms. Organized severe weather would likely need to be 'imported', i.e. upstream convection propagating into the Goodland CWA during the evening hours, similar to yesterday. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via high-res convection allowing guidance vary considerably from model-to-model and run-to-run, as is typically the case in weak forcing regimes. -Vincent

For the weekend, the ridge migrates eastward on Saturday with the axis over eastern Colorado. Southwest flow over the Rockies will initiate afternoon convection which will move northeast across the plains Saturday night. Some of this remnant convection will reach areas generally north of Interstate 70 in the evening and overnight hours, but probably in a much weakened state. On Sunday the ridge moves south into the Texas panhandle area, with a zonal flow over the top in Colorado and Kansas. An embedded wave will once again initiate convection over the mountains and Front Range, reaching the area Sunday night. If it gets here early enough may see a limited wind and hail threat, mainly in Colorado, where SBCAPE is forecast up to 1500 j/kg and deep layer shear up to 30 kts. Storms will tend to weaken into Sunday night with mainly a marginal wind threat.

Temperatures peak on Friday with upper 90s to near 100, but then will be slightly cooler over the weekend behind the front with highs around 90 both days.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 106 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Starting the extended period Monday, 597 dam high pressure is forecast to be in place over the SW CONUS. As long as it remains situated in that position the potential for lobes of vorticity to move around the high will keep our shower and storm potential in play. The current forecast for the precipitation continues to look reasonable as guidance has been coming into better agreement with shortwave moving off of the Rockies during the afternoon hours on Monday and possibly an even stronger wave Tuesday as well. Do have some concerns about Monday however as CAPE and shear may be a bit lacking which seems like a decent scenario for outflow to get out ahead of storms and they dissipate which which ECMWF ensemble qpf output on most members suggest that this could be a realistic concern. Both may have the potential for severe weather but Tuesday is currently forecast to have a bit better CAPE and shear. Some qpf outputs are also showing the potential for heavy rainfall as well so may need to keep an eye on some flooding issues as well.

Wednesday and into the latter part of the week, guidance suggests that heights rise as some ridge amplification occurs which is synoptically favored to help suppress any additional storm development. If this signal were to change then a similar pattern to Monday and Tuesday would ensue and keep our daily storm chances in play.

High temperatures are continued to be forecast in the 90s for the extended period. 850mb moisture is forecast to remain in place as well which will help keep temperatures in the lower to mid 90s instead of warming up into the upper 90s to even triple digits. However if the overall high pressure were to shift northward a little more then the higher temperatures could be realized.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 240 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions look to prevail throughout the period for both KGLD and KMCK, with light southerly or variable winds. Evening storms are possible at both terminals. Very low confidence with regard to thunderstorm development and coverage, low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 12Z TAF issuance.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.