textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog may briefly reduce visibility to less than 1/4 mile this morning.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms start today and continuing through the rest of the week. The probability of severe weather will be low.

- Warmer temperatures return; Thursday will likely see the 90s again.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1257 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Early this morning, an inverted 850 mb ridge axis stemming from the Upper Mississippi River Valley will work to keep the winds weak and gradually make them southerly by the late morning. There may be enough disturbance from the incoming ridge to cause some weak convection to occur along and southeast of a line from Trenton, NE to Kit Carson, CO KS 25. Chances for this convection to occur range from 15-25%, increasing further to the east. Most likely timing for these showers will be 6-12Z, although sprinkles may persist until closer to 18Z. Severe weather is not expected from these storms.

This morning, stratus has returned to the area and will impact the aviation community. There is also a 50% chance patches of dense fog will form along and east of U.S. 83. Temperatures are expected to cool into the 50s across the area, cooler in the western CWA.

Today, the high pressure system that's been plaguing the southeastern CONUS for multiple days will retrograde and move west. This will work to clear out the sky in the midday and afternoon hours, as well as strengthen southerly flow. This flow will promote gusts in the 15-25 kts range and draw in warm air, pushing highs back into the low 80s for most of the area. There is a 50% chance that a combination of lingering clouds and a more easterly component in the wind will keep parts of the CWA capped out in the upper 70s.

The 500 mb boundary on the northwestern edge of the high will be sitting over the CWA this evening. This gives us another 30-50% chance of convection in the evening and overnight hours into Thursday morning. This convection may persist until around 12Z Thursday morning. The NBM is really pushing for this convection, but low-level support is still lackluster, reducing forecaster confidence in this convection occurring. If the convection does form, there would be a 10% chance of localized flooding as the primary threat. Lows look to cool into the 60s again Wednesday night and the far northeastern CWA may see some stratus return, trailing the showers.

Thursday, a low over the northwestern CONUS will push a trough axis over the Rockies, leading to a low-level lee low. This lee low will fight against the high over the Mid and Lower Mississippi River Vally area. These features will create moderately strong southwesterly flow. We're expecting winds from the south-southwest to gust up around 20-35 kts across the CWA, leading to highs climbing back into the 90s, thanks to compressional heating.

The lee low is expected to move through Nebraska and largely miss the CWA. However, the southern end of the cold front may swing as far south as U.S. 36, allowing for some late afternoon and evening storms. Potential for these storms becoming severe is less than 10% with flooding being the most likely threat. Overnight lows look to mainly be in the 60s Thursday night.

Friday, we could see a surge of westerly flow reinvigorate the cold front from Thursday and have it extend into the CWA. If this occurs, temperatures will likely cap out in the low 80s. However, the southwesterly flow will be weaker, preventing temperatures from being any warmer than Thursday. As the evening progresses, either the cold front or 500 mb vorticity has a 30-60% chance of firing off some convection, with better chances in Colorado. Once again, severe potential is low, but these might be the strongest storms over the next few days.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A weak 500-mb trough looks to be located over portions of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming Saturday morning. This feature is expected to be moving slowly eastward throughout the long term period. A weak to modest jet streak may develop over Kansas during the afternoon hours ahead of this feature, which would support a surface low pressure over the area and back into the South-Central Plains. A cold front would seem likely as this surface low passes through the area, which would cool temperatures down a bit and provide some chances for precipitation. High temperatures are currently forecast in the upper 70s and lower 80s Saturday. This is supported by LREF standard deviations in wind direction which show the highest uncertainty in wind direction south and east of the forecast area by noon Saturday. This would suggest the front would have already come through the area by that time. However, NBM 75th and higher percentiles in high temperature for Saturday show highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, which could indicate a slower frontal passage. Currently, the faster frontal passage is favored, with about 75% of LREF members suggesting highs lower than the mid 80s.

NBM guidance also shows most of the forecast area at a 40-50% chance of receiving 0.1 inches of rain or higher Saturday, the exception being areas north of US Highway 24 and east of Kansas Highway 25. However, LREF guidance shows less than a 25% chance across the forecast area that surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) will be above 1000 J/kg. As such, widespread rainfall with perhaps a few localized showers are favored as opposed to convective thunderstorms.

Surface winds are forecast to be weak, but out of the north Sunday as the upper level trough moves in overhead. Conditions look to be relatively temperate, with highs forecast in the low to mid 70s, and chances for precipitation decreasing. NBM guidance shows less than a 25% chance of receiving greater than 0.1 inches of rain Sunday except for areas along and west of Kansas Highway 27 and south of I- 70. Any activity is once again expected to be just rainfall and perhaps some localized showers instead of thunderstorms, as LREF guidance continues to show lower values of CAPE.

Forecast guidance becomes more uncertain by Monday morning. Specifically, ensembles show the 500-mb trough getting muted beyond Monday, or spread increasing around the feature. When looking at deterministic guidance, this is in relation to how quickly the trough will move out of the area and into the Midwest. However, ensemble guidance is in good agreement that troughing will redevelop across the Western United States Monday and Tuesday. Taking this into account, a reasonable forecast would be conditions remaining like Sunday until the initial trough moves out of the area. Once that happens, temperatures would begin to increase ahead of the new trough to the west, along with elevated chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected to lower to IFR heights by sunrise for both KGLD and KMCK. There is higher confidence in the low ceilings at KMCK, which may even drop to minimums. KGLD also has a threat of hitting minimums, but that is only around a 30% chance. Patchy fog may also impact both sites this morning. Conditions are expected to be improving by noon, but KMCK is likely to see MVFR and lower ceilings and by Thursday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.