textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Low chances around 10-30% each day for a few isolated storms through much of the work week.

- Limited wind and hail threat with stronger storms through the week, but overall severe risk will be low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1215 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

For today, expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon along a trough/stationary front in northeast Colorado, as well as further south along the Kansas/Colorado border area south of Interstate 70. Both instability and shear are weaker compared to previous days, but there is a relative maximum across southwest Nebraska where up to 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of 0-6 km shear is forecast. This would be the most likely area for a severe storm between 00z-03z, but coverage, if any, will be very low. CAMs show all convection dissipating after 03z and no further development through the night.

Wednesday will be similar to today, with low probabilities of an isolated afternoon storm initiating on any remnant mesoscale boundaries in the area. Instability and shear continue to be weak and the probability of severe weather low. Most convection will be in the mountains and Front Range with a slow migration across the eastern Colorado plains through the evening hours. That activity has a low probability of making it to the Colorado/Kansas border area late in the evening, but in a much weakened state, dissipating by around 06z.

Thursday, the lee trough will mix eastward into Kansas during the afternoon, with westerly winds and slightly lower dew points in its wake. This boundary may set up in the far eastern portion of the forecast area, McCook to Hill City, in the afternoon, with weak to moderate instability on the eastern side of it where southerly winds persist. 3-km NAM shows convection initiating on that boundary late in the afternoon, but just east of the area. RFS has a similar surface pattern but does not initiate convection. Deep layer shear remains unfavorable for organized, sustained updrafts at around 20 kts. So, both storm coverage and probability of severe storms will remain low.

Southwest flow continues on Friday with the upper ridge starting to rebuild into the Plains from the east. Afternoon convection is forecast to develop along the Front Range and in southeast Colorado. Southern activity may reach areas south of Interstate 70 late in the afternoon and rest of the area in the evening, while Front Range convection will be slow to arrive, if it ever does, with the northeasterly storm motions. Instability looks somewhat better with low level moisture return and dew points back into the lower 60s, and there is a modest increase in deep layer shear to 20-30 kts. As a result, may see a slight increase in the risk for wind and hail, but the weak forcing will likely result in limited coverage.

Temperatures through the period will remain above normal. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s in Colorado to the upper 90s and lower 100s in Kansas and Nebraska each day.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Friday through Monday, the upper level ridge continues to be persistent over the Southern United States with some amplification towards the north over the weekend before stalling again. A strong low pressure over the Pacific Northwest coast may allow some small embedded shortwave troughs to pass through as well as southwesterly flow from Baja California. This is forecast to bring in chances for showers and warmer temperatures in the beginning of the period. Diurnal heating looks to be the main driving force for these showers. Friday afternoon, Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) has 15% chance for showers over the northwestern and 20% chance over the eastern portions of the County Warning Area (CWA). There is high confidence (70%) that it will be sub-severe as there are very low values of CAPE and an unfavorable wind shear profile.

Throughout the remainder of the period, chances for rain will be low as the upper level ridge starts to amplify to the north. PoPs have a chance for showers at 15% in the northern half and 10% in southern half of the CWA.

Temperatures will start out in the mid to upper 90s and are expected to decrease towards the low 90s by Monday. However, there is low confidence (30%) that temperatures Sunday will be in the mid to low 90s as NBM 75th to 25th percentile spread starts to increase with a 5 degree difference and could potentially keep temperatures into the upper 90s. Uncertainty grows due to the possible showers later in the weekend and Monday could lean to the cooler side. Heat index values may reach into the 100s on Sunday if highs reach into the upper 90s as moisture is being fed from both the southeast and southwest with dew points being in the low 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1105 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and increasing high clouds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening have a low probability, less than 20%, of impacting either location.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.