textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures are possible today, but are a bit less likely compared to prior forecasts.

- There is about a 65% chance the area sees some precipitation either late Tuesday or Wednesday. The most likely scenario is a few hundredths of rain. That does leave a 35% chance we get dry slotted and no precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1253 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Current observations have broad zonal flow across most of the United States with an upper trough beginning to push into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, there is a broad area of low pressure that has set up over the area and calmed the winds. This is forecast to be the story for today with the broad low keeping winds light through the day. Compared to prior forecasts, the chances for wind gusts above 25 mph (that could have allowed for critical fire weather) have dropped to 25% or less across the area. This seems to be due to the upper trough staying close the the U.S/Canada border and not digging as far south. As such, there is nothing during the day that is forecast to tighten either the pressure or height gradients. Adding to the wind dampening, a sizable mass of upper level moisture is forecast to move over the area and provide mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across the area. This should inhibit mixing which will hamper both the winds and temperatures. We could still see record temperatures if there are enough breaks in the clouds, but the chances have lowered a bit. Highs remain forecast to reach the 80s.

Tonight, the upper trough is forecast to push into the Northern Plains. As it does so, it is forecast to help push a surface cold front south towards and into the area by the end of the night. This should increase the pressure gradient and winds as the night goes on. Winds are forecast to go from out of the south at 5-10 mph to out of the north at 15-25 by the end of the night. There is a small chance for some precipitation with an 850mb low moving in as well, but the chance is less than 10% due to the dry air at the surface. We'll have upper level and slowly increasing mid-level moisture, but not enough near the surface to allow for much precipitation. Best chance would be near the Tri-State border during the early evening hours. As for temperatures, the clouds should help keep most of the area in the 40s or higher. That being said, northern parts of the area could see the 30s as they experience cold air advection with the front.

Tuesday, the area is forecast to be post frontal with breezy winds and cooler temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the 50s and 60s with winds from the north at 20-30 mph with gusts of 30- 45 mph. The reason the gusts aren't currently higher is that the 850- 700mb low is forecast to still be near/over the High Plains and keep flow somewhat light at this level. That being said, fronts have been over performing so still be cautious for occasional gusts of 50 to 60 mph. A mix of cloudy and clear skies is also forecast Tuesday with persistent higher level moisture. No hazards are currently forecast with relative humidity forecast to be above 25% and the low level being dry enough to hinder precipitation. Still, be alert as the strong winds will increase fire danger.

Tuesday evening, the cooler temperatures are forecast to combine with slight lower level moisture advection to finally moisten the entire air column. This could give the area both a chance for precipitation and maybe even some fog. That being said, precipitation chances currently remain around 30% or less overnight Tuesday with the better forcing from either a surface low or upper trough far enough west of the area. If precipitation does form, it could become a mix of rain and snow with temperatures forecast to be near freezing. Chances could increase if the system moves a bit faster compared to the current forecast, which some ensemble members show.

I can't believe I get to write this, but the decent chance for some precipitation is forecast to occur Wednesday. The upper level trough axis is forecast to wing through the Four Corners region and continue to push east. As it does so, it is forecast to strengthen a surface low just southwest of the area. This strengthening low is forecast to give us another breezy day as both the height and pressure gradients tighten ahead of this system. Currently, winds are forecast to be from the southeast at 15-30 mph with gusts of 30- 50 mph, highest in Eastern Colorado. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s again with little air mass change and continued cloud cover.

Alright now for the precipitation. As usual for this area, the biggest concern is the dreaded dry slot. Our precipitation amounts will depend on how far north this low tracks. If the low ends up pushing north and tracking through the area, we will likely become dry slotted and have little to no precipitation. This looks to be about a 35% chance right now. If the low skirts just a little south of the area and at forecast pace, the area could receive a few hundredths to maybe a few tenths of liquid precipitation. The higher amounts would favor north of I-70. This has about a 55% chance of occurring. The other 10% is the low tracks south and slows or wraps in on itself. In this scenario, amounts could be higher and near half an inch, especially again for the northern portions of the area. For now, I am going with the likely scenario, but am worried about the dry scenario. With the GEFS ensemble trying to drag the trough north and a little faster, I am worried we will get little precipitation. In regard to snow, accumulations would be less than an inch and likely melt quickly in almost any solution. We just aren't forecast to have enough cold air and the ground is fairly warm.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 215 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

May see a few scattered showers on Thursday with an embedded weak wave in the southwest flow ahead of an approaching trough. There is no instability to work with so convection is not anticipated. Mean precipitation amounts are around 0.05" where any shower develops. South winds increase to 30-40 mph in the afternoon and 40-50 mph in the early evening with falling pressure in Colorado as the upper system moves into the central Rockies. The associated cold front now looks to move through late Thursday night and Friday morning. May see a brief period of gusty winds with the front, but models showing only 30-40 mph at this time. Can't rule out a few isolated showers through Friday, but by and large the area is dry slotted with the upper low tracking through the Nebraska panhandle and the cold front well to the south. Friday looks breezy to windy with a 70-80 kt jet max moving through the base of the upper low. However, models show only limited mixing to around 5 kft which does not tap into the stronger winds aloft. As a result, they show only gusts in the 30-40 mph range. Still several days out and if deeper mixing occurs could see those stronger winds of 50 mph or higher at the surface Friday afternoon. For the weekend, will see northwest flow on Saturday in the wake of the departing low transitioning to zonal flow on Sunday as another system digs into the Great Basin. Not expecting any precipitation either day. May see a slight chance for critical fire weather conditions on Sunday as afternoon relative humidity drops to 15-20%, but winds are marginal at this time.

Temperature trends through the period start slightly above normal on Thursday (60s), cooling to near normal on Friday and Saturday (50s and 60s), then warming to slightly above normal on Sunday (lower 70s).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 435 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both sites with either clear skies or clouds above 10000ft. Winds through the day are forecast to be below 12 kts and shift to out of the northwest. There is the possibility of a few gusts near 20 kts during the early afternoon. The main chance is at the very end of the period as a cold front moves through between 06-12Z. Winds will shift quickly to out of the north and increase in speed. There could also be a brief period of low level wind shear ahead of the front.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1253 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Record high temperatures are possible today. Updated 3/30/2026

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Monday, March 30th:

Goodland, KS - Record is 88 (2010), forecast is 86.

Hill City, KS - Record is 93 (1943), forecast is 89.

McCook, NE - Record is 93 (1943), forecast is 88.

Burlington, CO - Record is 87 (2010), forecast is 85.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.