textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and dry today.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures return at the start of the work week.

- Breezy to gusty conditions look to return Wednesday behind a cold front. This cold front may bring our next potential for precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1245 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

Northwest flow will dominate the short term period, with a ridge axis slowly approaching the Rockies through Monday before retreating a bit on Tuesday. The end result will be dry conditions and mild temperatures. The only concern will be fire weather on Monday and Tuesday as afternoon relative humidity minimums fall into the teens. Southerly winds on Monday currently appear to fall short of the 25 mph criteria for gusts. However on Tuesday the winds turn to the northwest as a surface trough slides through the area. Mixed layer winds increase behind the trough axis for areas generally north of Interstate 70. Probabilities of gusts greater than 25 mph are currently running 20-50% in the NBM, highest further north, with a mean relative humidity of 15-18%, lowest in Colorado. So, there is some modest potential for critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon north of Interstate 70.

Temperatures remain cool today with highs ranging from the upper 30s for McCook to Hill City to the lower 40s in Colorado. The warm up begins on Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s followed by upper 60s to lower 70s in the entire area for Tuesday. Low temperatures will be in the teens tonight, then 20s and 30s for Monday and Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 109 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

Starting the extended period Wednesday, high pressure is forecast to be across the SW CONUS resulting in a weak ridge across the Rockies resulting in NW flow for the region. Above normal temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are currently forecast. A 10 degree temperature spread from the 25-75th percentile is currently seen which seems to be do to variations of the location of a developing low pressure system. This makes the forecast for Wednesday extremely tricky as the position of the low will dictate winds and moisture along with how quickly a strong cold front moves into the area. Assuming a further north low then fire weather concerns will be an issue for most if not all of the area. If the low is further south then fire concerns will be limited to southern portions of the forecast area. As mentioned a strong cold front is forecast to move through the area currently during the late afternoon to early evening hours. ECMWF-AI which typically handles frontal timing better has it moving through a few hours sooner. There is some concern for a wall of dust and damaging wind potential based on 00Z GFS data where a corridor of 50-60 knot 850mb winds are forecast to reside. 18Z ECMWF is slower with the front and a lot weaker on the 850mb winds as well so it's not a for sure thing that it will happen but is something that needs to be watched. The 12Z EFI does show a shift of tails up across northwest parts of the area which does bring some merit that the GFS is on to something. Similar to the previous discussion confidence in any dust is currently low around 5- 10% at this time. There is some precipitation potential in the forecast as well with the front as well but currently what is being seen on both GFS and ECMWF cross sections is dry air at the surface at least what is being plotted out with 3 hour and 6 hour data currently.

Thursday and Friday northwesterly flow is forecast to continue along with mild temperatures forecast in the 50s to 60s. Current humidity is forecast to fall into the mid teens currently but am a little skeptical on wind at this time as surface troughs are forecast to be moving through, which could put us at risk of being in the axis of nay troughs which would keep our winds lower than currently forecast.

Next weekend, very low confidence with high temperatures at this this time as there is 35-40 degree temperature spread between the 25th and 75th percentile high temperatures. This is due to guidance struggling with the southward positioning of a colder air mass across the northern Plains and Great Lakes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1011 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and occasional high clouds.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.