textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning issued for eastern Colorado with humidity in the low teens and wind gusts around 30 mph forecast. Similar conditions may spread into the Highway 27 corridor during the late afternoon leading to an hour or two of critical fire conditions.

- Cold front mid to late evening with a 20% chance of a couple of wind gusts around 60 mph.

- Rainfall chances increase this weekend. There is a small chance of severe weather Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1220 AM MDT Fri Apr 24 2026

High pressure is pushing in from the west and is forecast to lead to light winds across the area overnight. With dew points in place would not be surprised if some freezing temperatures could occur across eastern Colorado, especially across the highest elevations. Friday, the surface high is forecast to move to the east across the area. Across Colorado a surface low is forecast to develop and turn winds to the southwest across the Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO). This is where the most likely area to see several hours of critical fire weather lies. With mixing heights of 10,000-13,000 feet AGL there should be no issue in winds mixing down and overlapping A Red Flag Warning has been issued for those 3 counties as humidity is forecast to fall into the low teens and wind gusts up to 30 mph are forecast to occur. An hour or two of critical conditions is forecast to occur from Dundy down through Wallace county as the low deepens a tighter pressure gradient develops after 21Z. I opted to not issue for these counties due to confidence being around 60% in 3 or more hours occurring. If the low can set up a little further east and winds become more southwesterly sooner then a short lead time warning may be needed as dry air would intrude quicker. During the late afternoon some weak 500mb vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the area associated with weak shortwaves. Virga is possible but with a deep layer of dry air no precipitation is forecast to make it to the surface. 00Z forecast soundings indicate a few hundred joules and steep lapse rates indicating that some dry lightning strikes can't be ruled out.

A cold front is forecast to move through during the mid to late evening and shift winds to the north. Wind gusts of 40-55 mph are most likely with mixing heights around 1000 feet AGL via along with sustained winds of 25-35 mph but there is a 20% chance of isolated wind gusts around 60 mph as well. If virga is in place then the concern for 60+ mph wind gusts mixing down with the front with increase as well. This would also raise the concern for blowing dust and localized dust storms similar to what occurred on Thursday; although the impacts would be lesser due to the time of the day.

Into the day Saturday, behind the front strong signal for stratus is seen for the morning hours and increasing low level omega which may lead to some light rain showers across the area during the morning and into the early afternoon hours. Currently the favored area for light rain is across the north and eastern portions of the area. A chillier day is forecast for Saturday with highs in the upper 50s to the upper 60s across the south. If cloud cover is thick enough then high temperatures may still be 5-10 degrees to warm. Moisture return is then forecast to occur Saturday evening and again increase rainfall chances as winds turn more easterly due to the positioning of a surface low. The better potential for rainfall looks to occur during the evening and overnight hours. There is small and conditional chance for a severe storm or two mainly along and east of a Decatur to Gove county line as synoptic forcing increases ahead of a larger scale trough. A lot of mesoscale factors such as dry line location and if earlier day rainfall and stratus potential can interfere with the environment. Should a storm develop large hail and damaging winds would be the main concerns with Mixed layer CAPE ranging from 900-1600 j/kg dependent on the quality of moisture present, steep lapse rates and surface-6km shear around 35- 45 knots which would be supportive for severe weather. Straight line hodographs are also seen as well which would support splitting of cells. Am noticing a CAP around 700mb which would limit coverage and if storms even occur at all. Confidence in storms forming is around 10% and severe weather is less than 5% currently. ECMWf does indicate a weak shortwave in the area which would serve as lift but is currently the outlier at this time.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Sunday, our region starts off under weak southwest upper-level flow with a deepening low pressure system off the west coast. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s and lows in the 30s to 40s. There are chances for precipitation throughout the day as several embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) increase through the day with afternoon PoPs ranging from 75-97% increasing from south to north. PoPs will start to decrease after sundown ranging from 30-60% overnight.

We could see thunderstorms as CAPE is forecast over the region, but models are in disagreement on how much and where the CAPE will be. ECMWF shows 400-1000 J/kg of CAPE across the entire CWA Sunday, while the GFS has no CAPE over our CWA. Low confidence on specifics due to model disagreement, but we could see small hail if thunderstorms are able to form.

By Monday, a deepening low pressure system off the coast of Baja California begins to move onshore. This places our region in a more zonal upper-level pattern. As the low propagates east, several shortwaves will pass through the region bringing afternoon chances for precipitation. PoPs range from 25-50% for the northwest CWA. Convective potential is low based weak forcing and overall limited instability. Whether storms form or not, winds will be a concern Monday as a jet streak sets up over our CWA. Winds will be from the northwest with gusts of 25-40 mph possible. The northeast CWA is expected to receive the higher end of wind gusts.

Tuesday's forecast has changed a bit from yesterday. Winds have backed down overall, with max wind gusts forecast around 25 mph for the northwest CWA. Relative humidity (RH) values for the northwest CWA are forecast in the mid 20s. Fire weather concerns are decreasing based on this latest run of the NBM, but still something to monitor.

The northwest CWA has a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon with PoPs around 30% due to shortwaves passing through and weak upper-level support from a jet streak. Low confidence on specific hazards at this time, but the ECMWF is showing around 100 J/kg of CAPE in eastern Colorado, so we could see some small hail if thunderstorms are able to form.

Wednesday on, we could see a more active pattern as the aforementioned low around the west coast moves towards our area. Ensembles are currently in disagreement on the track and intensity of the low. Where this sets up will determine our precipitation chances, but based on increasing available moisture, we will likely see increasing coverage and intensity of precipitation and potentially thunderstorms Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1108 PM MDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for this period with mainly light and variable winds through the remainder of the night as a high pressure system moves across the area. Winds are then forecast to turn more southerly at each terminal with perhaps a more southwest component for GLD during Friday afternoon along with wind gusts of 25-30 knots. A cold front is then forecast to move through towards the latter part of the period with wind gusts of 30-40 knots possible.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. NE...None.