textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A widespread chance of rain (70-90%) is expected through mid- morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will bring another chance of rain (40-70%).

- Drier conditions return for the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 257 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A wetter pattern has set-up across the Southern and Central High Plains through tonight with a several rounds of widespread rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms. The first few of these rounds is ongoing early this morning as widespread rain has overspread southeast and southcentral Colorado and into portions of far western Kansas and up into southeast Nebraska overnight. This activity will gradually push off to the northeast from late this morning through early afternoon with the more widespread rain ending. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon into this evening, but has been trending much less widespread per latest model runs.

This mornings activity is being driven by a shortwave trough lifting up across Colorado as it rides along the western periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Ark-La-Tex Region with ridge axis now extending into the Great Lakes Region. Low-level moisture has been streaming north from the Gulf, and with the addition of mid- level moisture being pulled from Baja California, has made this airmass an efficient rain producer. Radar estimates show that most areas in the CWA have received at least a 0.10" of rainfall. Heavier swaths of 0.25" to 0.5" were common from Greeley to Decatur County and CWA counties east. Greeley, Wichita, and Logan showed a few more localized swaths of up to 1.75" where heavier showers trained overnight.

As the shortwave lifts north of the forecast area later this morning, widespread rain will end from south to north. May see low clouds linger across some of the forecast area, but expect some breaks and clearing before a second trough lifts through the High Plains later this afternoon. This second round has been trended toward more scattered showers and thunderstorms versus more widespread rainfall. So main concerns have shifted to any thunderstorms that develop and track over where the heavier rain swaths have saturated the soils. Another weak through moving out into the Plains Friday could result in continued unsettled weather into the afternoon and evening.

Drier conditions return for the weekend as ridging begins to build back over the Plains.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 257 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Saturday morning, a weak 500-mb trough looks to be over the forecast region. Surface winds out of the northwest are possible with a weak cold front across Eastern Colorado. However, high temperatures are forecast to rise into the 80s across the forecast area despite the troughing overhead and weak cold front. This would likely be due to weaker surface winds alongside clearing of cloudcover, which would allow solar heating to dominate as the primary heating mechanism for the day. This solution is supported by LREF guidance, which shows a 60% chance or higher for less than 10% cloudcover along and west of U.S. Highway 83. In addition, NBM guidance suggests a 50% chance or greater that surface winds will remain below 10 mph across most of the forecast region. Even NBM 25th percentile high temperatures are in the 80s across the CWA (County Warning Area) except along U.S. Highway 283 where lingering cloudcover may keep highs in the upper 70s. It should be noted that forecast guidance indicates relative humidities dropping into the teens across portions of Eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon, which could indicate some potential for critical fire weather conditions. However, NBM guidance suggests a 1 in 3 chance or less that wind gusts will exceed 25 mph across most of this area, which leaves confidence in fire weather conditions occurring less than 5%.

Ridging looks to build into the forecast area Sunday, with ensemble guidance suggesting that this will transition into more southwesterly upper-level flow by Monday morning. Conditions continue to be forecast in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the forecast region. Precipitation remains unlikely at least through the morning hours on Monday, as NBM precipitation guidance remains below a 10% probability for all areas that greater than 0.1 inches of rain will occur.

Troughing is forecast to begin moving overhead sometime Monday afternoon or evening. A surface low at the leading edge of this trough would be expected to deepen with the aid of sufficient upper- level divergence and lee cyclogenesis across the Central and North- Central Plains. A cold front appears likely as the surface low passes through the forecast area sometime between the afternoon and night hours Monday. Chances for precipitation increase dramatically along the frontal boundary, as NBM guidance shows that most areas have at least a 40% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain with this activity through 6 am Tuesday. Areas north and east of a line from Trenton, NE to Hill City, KS have as high as a 75% chance for the same. Some of this activity may be associated with thunderstorms, particularly along and east of U.S. Highway 83 where LREF guidance shows between a 1 in 2 and 1 in 3 chance that surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) will be above 1000 J/kg. The same guidance suggests between a 40 and 50% chance that sfc- 500mb wind shear will exceed 30 knots, which could allow some thunderstorms to become severe if they develop. High winds would be the biggest concern with these storms, as GFS and EC model soundings suggest the vertical wind shear would be along the cold front. Additionally, CAPE and wind shear seem like they would be a bit low for large hail and tornadoes to occur with storms. As such, a reasonable forecast would be widespread showers and thunderstorms along the cold front, with perhaps a storm or two having a chance to produce severe wind. Confidence in severe weather occurring Monday night and into Tuesday is around 5%.

Forecast guidance becomes a lot more uncertain by Tuesday morning. Ensemble guidance is in support of troughing remaining overhead into the evening hours, but becoming less certain on how quickly the upper trough will move out of the forecast area. LREF guidance doesn't seem to favor the trough moving out of the area until Wednesday morning, when about 55-60% of the members show 500-mb heights above 576 dam (5760 meters). However, even by Wednesday afternoon, 30% of the members still show the trough in the area. Cooler temperatures seem likely Tuesday afternoon, with highs forecast in the upper 60s to mid 70s. However, conditions on Wednesday would depend on whether the trough is still in the area or not. If the feature has moved off to the east, warmer and drier conditions could be expected, with highs in the mid 70s to 80s. Otherwise, cooler and wetter conditions would be expected to remain in place.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

GLD: LIFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities between 3SM and 6SM will continue through about 15Z before gradually improving to IFR/MVFR through 18Z with visibility expected to improve to VFR. Widespread rain with occasional embedded t-storms and heavier rain showers taper off this morning with some lingering showers through 18Z. Low ceilings may scatter out some by early afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms push through this afternoon and evening. SSE winds of 10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts will continue through the period.

MCK: Low-level wind shear concerns through 12-15Z with light easterly surface winds and stronger SSE flow above 2000 ft. Wind shear concerns will decrease as southerly surface winds increase. IFR/LIFR ceilings may improve as heavier rain showers move through, however, visibility will drop to 2-3SM with any heavier shower or t-storm passing through. Conditions will improve after 16-18Z as the system lifts north.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.