textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry and breezy through the beginning of the work week, with severe weather largely confined to the Northern Plains.

- Southernmost extent of thunderstorm development (and severe weather potential) may include portions of far northeast Colorado on Tuesday, mainly Yuma County.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 220 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Overview: Southwest flow aloft will persist over the Tri-State Area, between an amplifying ridge over the MS River Valley and a broad upper level low over the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.

Today-Monday: Persistence forecast. Guidance indicates little change in the synoptic pattern in place over the region during the next 36 hours. Daily/diurnal lee cyclone development in CO will continue to foster breezy SSW to SW low-level flow during the afternoon hours each day. Guidance also indicates that convection will be confined to the Northern Plains (mainly Dakotas), in closer proximity to shortwave energy progressing cyclonically around a broad upper level low over the northern Rockies. With steering flow from the SW, convective development and convective phenomena (outflow, MCV's, remnant cloud cover, etc.) over the Northern Plains are exceedingly unlikely to affect the mesoscale pattern several hundred miles further to the south, in the Tri-State Area. With the above in mind, expect sensible weather conditions similar to Saturday, i.e. hot, dry and breezy. At present, fuels are not conducive for critical fire weather conditions. -Vincent

Tuesday presents a similar scenario. RRFS suggests the dry line will retreat as far west as the Colorado and Kansas border area by the afternoon with the NBM also showing southeast winds and higher dew points. RRFS shows more of pronounced shortwave in the southwest flow aloft and initiates convection in the area after 21z. The environment would be supportive of a severe threat with up to 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 40 kts of deep layer shear, strongest in the northwest half of the area. Still a few days out and unsure how the other CAMs will handle it, but there is at least some hints of a severe risk on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures continue in the 90s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 159 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Hot, dry, and windy weather persist through the long term forecast period. Wednesday, our region is forecast to be in a southwest upper- level flow with a jet streak overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s for the county warning area (CWA). Expect a windy Wednesday for our Colorado counties with wind gusts up to 40 mph possible. A shortwave passage will bring a slight chance of precipitation Wednesday afternoon, but Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are only around 15% for the northeast CWA. Instability is weak, so any storms that form will likely be isolated and sub-severe with small hail and strong winds as the primary hazards.

Thursday through Saturday, conditions continue to be hot, dry, and windy with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s. Wind gusts of 20 to 45 mph are expected, with the strongest winds forecast across the western CWA.

While the meteorological conditions are conducive for fire weather, how receptive fuels will be is the big question. Wednesday through Saturday, relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to fall into the teens across the western CWA accompanied by strong afternoon winds. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are forecast in the high to extreme category. However, given the recent substantial rainfall, fuels may remain unreceptive, which could mitigate the overall fire weather threat despite the hot, dry, and windy conditions. We will have to watch how much fuels dry out over the weekend to better determine fire weather potential for next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Light winds this afternoon will increase tonight from the south to southwest, gusting up to 30 kts at times.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.