textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures return by the end of the week, with triple digit highs this weekend into early next week.

- Scattered storms are possible during the late aft-eve hours on Wed and Thu. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage on both days. Organized severe weather is not expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 400 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Through Tonight: Southeasterly low-level flow / moisture advection will foster marginal to moderate nocturnal destabilization (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) over the Tri-State Area late this evening and overnight. Synoptic subsidence beneath the ridge will continue to suppress convective development over the Central Plains. ESE-SE (upslope) low-level flow could assist in the development of diurnal convection along portions of the Colorado Front Range and Cheyenne Ridge (west of I-25) late this afternoon and evening. Even if unorganized convection emanating from the the Rockies/Cheyenne Ridge is sufficiently deep and long-lived (e.g. persistent enough to produce an MCV), weak SW to W flow on the northwest periphery of the ridge would steer activity toward the ENE-E, keeping convection well northwest and north of the Goodland county warning area. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST are consistent with this line of thinking. Precipitation is not expected.

Wed-Wed night: Guidance suggests that surface high pressure anchored over the Upper Midwest will help maintain breezy ESE to SSE low-level flow across the majority of the Tri-State Area. Expect sensible weather conditions similar to, albeit a few degrees warmer than, today, with highs ranging from the lower 90's in northeast portions of the area to upper 90's in southwest portions of the area. While a pronounced upper level ridge will persist over the region, the core of the ridge will shift further south, over the Southern Plains (TX-OK), leading to a less-suppressed convective environment compared to today. Convection allowing guidance suggests that low-level convergence and ESE-SE upslope flow on the east and northeast periphery of a well defined lee cyclone in CO will lead to scattered high- based storm development ~3p MDT along the Colorado Front Range and Palmer Divide, where marginal instability, weak low-level flow and weak effective deep layer shear suggest that convection will be slow-moving and unorganized in nature. Around sunset (~7-9p MDT), near the CO-KS border, strengthening southeasterly flow on the eastern periphery of the lee cyclone could lead to a short period of stronger shear and brief supercellular organization. Given that backed low-level flow will be confined to the lowest ~2,000 ft AGL, that updrafts will be high-based in nature (LCL's ~10,000 ft AGL) and that forecast soundings indicate rapidly increasing convective inhibition at sunset.. this may not make much of a difference. Expect thunderstorm chances and coverage to be greatest in eastern CO and nearby KS border counties between 6pm and midnight MDT. Brief, localized wind gusts up to 65 mph and locally heavy rainfall are possible with stronger storms.

Thu-Thu night: Synoptically similar to Wednesday, albeit with modest W to WNW flow aloft on the eastern fringe of an amplifying ridge over the 4-Corners and northern Rockies. Late evening and early morning convection over and/or upstream of the Tri-State Area may modify environmental conditions. Low confidence in forecast specifics w/regard to thunderstorm coverage and evolution.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 253 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Synoptically for the long term portion of the forecast, the ridge will begin to propagate eastward and will begin to stall out over the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains region. Looking at the mid levels guidance does have some agreement on there being some shortwave moving through the area begin Saturday through Tuesday.

Overall for this period, it looks to remain fairly dry and hot. The daily temperatures for the weekend and early next week are forecast to be in the high 90s and low 100s. The days with the highest temperatures look to be Saturday through Monday.

Starting with Saturday, Guidance is suggesting that Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow Counties will have around a 30-50% of exceeding 100 degrees. The NBM and LREF however do show some disagreement with the rest of the County Warning Area (CWA). The NBM is favoring the highest temperatures to stay in the Nebraska counties whereas, the LREF favors areas east of CO Hwy 385 having a 30-50% of seeing above 100 for highs. As for Sunday, the LREF has the majority of the CWA having around a 25-75% of exceeding 100 degrees with the higher values in the eastern portions of the CWA. The NBM has similar coverage with areas east of CO Hwy 385 but values in the 20-60%. Monday Guidance is in agreement more than previous days and is showing that there is around a 20-45% chance of seeing temperatures higher than 100 degrees. The main areas for seeing these temperatures look to be east of KS Hwy 25/83 and south of US Hwy 40.

Moving to precipation chances, the highest days to see precipitation chances is Monday and Tuesday. Currently for each day PoPs are in the range of 20-30% for areas west of KS Hwy 83. Looking at SFC-CAPE guidance is suggesting there to be around 1000-1500 J/kg. SFC-500 mb Shear there is around 20-30 kts which would suggest storms to be unorganized if they are able to develop. Given this is around a week out and will a fair amount can change.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 400 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the 00Z TAF period at both terminals, with cloud cover confined to transient wisps of cirrus at or above ~18,000 ft AGL. ESE winds at 13-17 knots will decrease to 8-13 knots by sunset and persist through Wednesday morning. Winds will veer to the SE and increase to 15-20 knots during the afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.