textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70 where warm temps, low humidity and SW winds at 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph may lead to rapid wildfire growth.

- Breezy S to SW winds and critical fire weather possible over portions of the area, yet again, on Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Synoptic Overview: Shortwave energy approaching the 4-Corners early this morning will slowly/steadily track east across the central Rockies (tonight) and Central Plains (Wed). An associated lee cyclone will deepen over eastern CO and western KS today. The lee cyclone will broaden and weaken as it progresses eastward into central Kansas tonight and E-ENE into eastern Kansas and Nebraska on Wed.

Today: Still a challenging forecast. A tightening MSLP to 850 mb height gradient and deep vertical mixing (up to 550-500 mb, ~12-14 KFT AGL) on the east and southeast periphery of the deepening lee cyclone will foster noticeably stronger SW winds over portions of the area, mainly east and south of Goodland during the mid-late afternoon and early evening when/where GFS, HRRR and RAP forecast soundings indicate that ~25-35 knot SW flow will be present throughout the mixed layer. Current guidance suggests that relatively stronger (~35-45 knot) SW flow will largely be confined along/south of Hwy 96 (Tribune/Leoti). Again, the northern extent/magnitude of SW winds (and more robust critical fire weather conditions) will highly depend on the precise evolution of the lee cyclone, which will track directly the NWS Goodland county warning area this aft-eve. In this particular pattern/setup, guidance continues to indicate that precipitation chances will be far less dependent on the precise evolution of the lee cyclone, i.e. most, if not all, of the Goodland CWA will thoroughly be situated within the dry slot. Simulated reflectivity forecasts from current and recent (00/06Z) runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST do suggest that meager (100-250 J/kg) high-based instability will support the development of scattered high-based convection along the Colorado Front Range and portions of the Palmer Divide (west of Limon) at peak heating this afternoon. Deep SW steering flow will, however, shephard activity toward the northeast (largely parallel-to the Goodland CWA), limiting already-limited precip chances to northern portions of Yuma County ~22-02Z (4-8 pm MDT).

Tonight-Wed: Shortwave energy traversing the Colorado Front Range may emerge in the form of a modest, compact upper low.. and an ephemeral surface-850 mb reflection.. late tonight and early Wed morning. If this is the case, focused upper forcing and localized low-level convergence/frontogenesis in vicinity of the surface-850 mb low could facilitate the development of precip/showers over portions of northeast CO between midnight and sunrise (~06-12Z Wed). At present, convection allowing guidance suggests that any such activity would largely be confined to the I-76 corridor, possibly as far east as norther Yuma County. Scattered Cu and virga (maybe a shower or two) will accompany the upper wave as it progresses east across northwest KS and southwest NE during the day on Wed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Upper-level troughing appears to be favored across the Western United States Thursday morning. Lee cyclogenesis is favored to take place across the North-Central High Plains through the afternoon. Additionally, GEFS guidance suggests an 850-mb high pressure will exist across the Southeastern United States, and back into Mexico and Baja California. These two features look to establish southerly to southwesterly surface flow across the forecast region Thursday afternoon, yielding warm and dry conditions. Forecast highs are currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s, with relative humidities (RH) in the upper single- digits to lower-teens. Critical fire weather conditions may be a concern during the afternoon and evening hours, with wind gusts forecast in the 25-40 mph range across most of the CWA. NBM guidance suggests over a 40% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions across most locations in the forecast region, with over a 90% chance across portions of Eastern Colorado. Further, LREF guidance suggests over a 90% chance for RH values to meet criteria for the hazard across portions of Eastern Colorado and West-Central Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Higher end scenarios would be associated with a stronger central low pressure across portions of Eastern Wyoming and Montana, and the Western Dakotas. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is currently highest for portions of Eastern Colorado, around 30%.

The upper-level trough from the west looks to move across the forecast region Friday, pushing a surface low pressure across the Central High Plains eastward. A strong cold front is favored to begin traversing the forecast region sometime between the afternoon and evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are possible ahead of the cold front, though a slower eastward progression of the surface low would be required. About 60% of GEFS and EC members are in line with a slower cold front, which could be associated with some critical fire weather conditions across portions of West- Central Kansas and East Central Colorado. However, the 40% of members that show a faster cold front would mitigate the risk across this zone. A freeze, along with some snowfall may also be experienced with this cold front. Current forecast guidance suggests low temperatures in the lower-20s to lower-30s across the forecast region Friday night, with a 40-55% chance of light snow across portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas. NBM guidance suggests a 30-45% chance for the snowfall to be measurable (>0.1 inches) across this zone, with over a 75% chance for sub-freezing temperatures across most of the forecast area Friday night (nearly a 100% chance across portions of West Kansas, far Southwest Nebraska, and Eastern Colorado). Cooler conditions may continue into Saturday, with forecast high temperatures in the mid-50s to mid-60s during the afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions may be experienced Saturday afternoon as well, though is highly in question considering the lower temperatures. LREF guidance suggests about a 40-60% chance for RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria Saturday afternoon across most of Northwest Kansas and Eastern Colorado.

By Sunday morning, upper-level troughing looks to be fully off to our east, with upper-level ridging approaching from the Western United States. This pattern favors a return of warm and dry conditions through the end of the forecast period Monday afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the low to mid-70s and upper-70s to lower-80s Sunday and Monday respectively. Relative humidities may drop into the low to mid-teens both Sunday and Monday, but is currently more confined to Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas on Monday, as GEFS guidance indicates that the 850-mb high across Mexico and Baja California may erode and allow a better moisture return from the Gulf of America. Forecast wind gusts in the 25-40 mph range both days may indicate further risks for critical fire weather conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will this evening and overnight will shift to the WSW and increase to 10-15 knots during the mid-late morning.. then back to the SW and further increase to 20-30 knots during the afternoon. Breezy SW to WSW winds will persist through sunset. Winds are likely to shift to the NW or N at some point Tuesday eve/night.. near the end of the 06Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. A broad low pressure system will track eastward across the Tri-State Area on Tue. Low confidence in wind direction at the McCook terminal. Winds may remain variable through much of the 06Z TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Apr 13 2026

Today: Expect warm/dry conditions similar to Monday but with relatively stronger SW winds at 20-35 mph gusting to 45 mph, strongest south and east of Goodland. The northern extent of critical fire weather conditions will highly depend on the precise evolution of a deepening low pressure system in eastern Colorado today. Recent high resolution model guidance/trends suggest that the northern extent of critical fire weather will be along or near the I-70 corridor, where the duration of red flag conditions will be marginal (2-3 hours). The further south you go from I-70, the greater the magnitude and duration of red flag conditions.

Thursday: Warmer and much drier with minimum RH readings around 8-13% and 20-30 mph S to SW winds. Much of the Tri-State Area could see a period of red flag conditions.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041- 042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None.