textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect for the majority of the area on Saturday, when above normal temperatures, dry conditions and breezy S to SW winds may lead to rapid wildfire growth.

- Warming back up to end the weekend and begin the next week.

- Low potential for active weather early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Today-Tonight: A freshly deposited, seasonably cool airmass (850 mb temps 0 to -2C) will foster near-average to slightly below average highs in the 50's. Light (5-15 mph)NE winds will veer to the E and SE this afternoon, further veering to the SE- SSE and increasing to 20-30 mph late this evening and overnight. Expect overnight lows ranging anywhere from the upper 20's to upper 30's. Temperature trends, initially driven by radiational cooling, will be modulated by strengthening southerly flow /mixing/ overnight.. most prominently in western portions of the area, where lows may occur during the evening / prior to midnight.

Sat-Sat night: Strengthening southerly flow on the eastern periphery of a deepening lee trough in WY-CO (and western fringe of 1035-1040 mb high pressure over the Central MS River Valley) will foster a warming trend, with highs ranging from the upper 60's to lower 80's, coolest in eastern/lower-elevation portions of the area.. where the aforementioned cooler airmass will persist longer / require more time to be displaced/modified by southerly flow. Guidance indicates that 30-40 KT southerly low- level flow residing over northwest KS and southwest NE at the onset of diurnal heating/mixing (~15Z) will weaken from west-to- east during the late morning and afternoon, as the deepening lee trough progresses east toward the CO-KS border. In KS and NE, expect sustained winds ~25-35 mph w/gusts ~40-50 mph during the late morning followed by a west-to-east weakening trend, especially along/north of I-70 and west of Hwy 25 (Goodland, St. Francis) where winds may decrease to 15-25 mph by mid-late afternoon. Winds will continue to weaken from west-to-east during the evening and overnight, as the aforementioned lee trough progresses eastward over western KS and NE. Expect overnight (Sun morning) lows in the 40's.

In coordination/collaboration with surrounding WFOs, the Fire Weather Watch on Saturday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning everywhere except in Yuma County CO, where light winds are likely to limit/mitigate critical fire weather potential. A similar argument could be made for much of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in CO.. western portions, in particular.. where confidence in Red Flag conditions (within the warning area) is lowest.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Sun-Mon: Long range guidance continues to indicate that the Tri-State Area will remain on the northern periphery of a modest upper level ridge (over the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast), at the far southern fringe /anticyclonic shear side/ of the mid- latitude westerlies.. amidst a poorly defined MSLP to 850 mb height gradient in the lee of the central Rockies. Expect light winds and a continued warming trend with well above average highs in the mid-upper 80's to lower 90's on Sun-Mon. From a critical fire weather standpoint, light winds are the sole limiting factor on both days.

Mon night-Wed: Compared to 24-hr ago, 12Z 03/27 GFS and ECMWF operational guidance are in far better agreement with regard to the synoptic pattern early next week. Both indicate an abrupt cooling trend / return to near-average temperatures in the wake of a Mon night-Tue morning cold front. Strong northerly winds are apt to accompany the front, similar to recent cold frontal passages.

Thu-Fri: Below average forecast confidence. Broadly speaking, expect a warming/moderating trend. Operational runs of the 12Z 03/27 GFS and ECMWF are in general agreement with regard to the evolution of the upper level pattern over North America late next week; both indicate a split-flow synoptic regime in the eastern Pacific and confluent flow aloft over the southwest CONUS and central-southern Rockies, where two distinct branches of the jet (northern/southern) will interact. Note: Forecast confidence typically decreases with range. 'Below average', in this context, is intended to communicate a further reduction in confidence associated with /inherent to/ increased pattern complexity -- e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off waves and multibranched jet interactions, among others.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 514 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with only a few mid to high level clouds expected. While flight categories will remain VFR, main concern for the period will be stregthening southerly winds through the overnight hours. 50+ kt LLJ will develop after 06z and although winds at the surface will increase, think threat for LLWS will persist near inversion level will be highest at KGLD as LLJ will near MCK as surface winds increase due to mixing.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ253- 254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081.