textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm to hot temperatures are forecast this weekend through next week.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as well.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Expired remainder of Dense Fog Advisory.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1207 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

500mb high pressure is located across southern portions of the area as mainly zonal flow continues across the Northern Plains. This continues to keep the area in between systems with very weak flow within the atmospheric profile. 850mb moisture advection is forecast to increase through the night. The boundary from Friday's storm attempts is forecast to retreat as a warm front and lead to fog potential again tonight. Currently thinking the fog threat should be a bit greater than what occurred Friday morning as it is forecast to favor areas along and north of Interstate 70. HRRR and NAM are the most aggressive with the dense fog potential as higher surface to 1km mixing ratio differences are again seen along with easterly winds. RAP and SREF keep winds a bit more southerly which would favor more of a stratus potential with patchy fog. 00Z REFS has been consistently highlighting Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS) as the most likely areas to see the dense fog development through the night so have added in an areas mention into the forecast for this. Some failure points to the fog are seen however with cloud cover seen on satellite associated with the moisture advection which could limit how low visibilities do get. Confidence in fog is around 60-70% and dense fog is around 30%.

Saturday, is forecast for troughing to begin to develop across the western CONUS which is forecast to help shunt out the mid level high across the area. Before that can occur however, pressure gradients are forecast to tighten and lead to breezy conditions. Forecast soundings suggest that higher sustained wind around 20 mph is most likely to occur with the strongest during the afternoon hours as the trough moves closer to the area. Warm temperatures are forecast across the area with highs in the 90s. The breezy winds and the warm temperatures are forecast to lead to some fire weather concerns across eastern Colorado. Elevated to perhaps briefly critical fire conditions are currently forecast with humidity values forecast in the mid teens. Using the mixed dewpoint surface to 30 output via the RAP and the NAM yields dewpoints in the upper 30s to low 40s. Current forecast high temperatures are a little on the higher side so confidence in multiple hours of critical conditions is around 20% at this time; precluding the need for a Red Flag Warning at this time.

During the afternoon hours a 500mb vorticity maxima associated with some of the western CONUS troughing is forecast to eject from the mountains and onto the Plains leading to the potential for isolated to scattered storms. Synoptic flow is again forecast to remain weak across the area which should limit storm intensity mainly to pulse type storms. There is concern for some dry thunderstorm potential across western Yuma and far northwest Kit Carson counties from around 3pm-8pm mountain time. This signal matches very well with the SPC Iso DRYT outlook as well. Currently thinking the coverage of the dry thunderstorms should be fairly low for Yuma and Kit Carson counties only favoring the far western portion of each county respectively at this time. Another feature of interest is with a mid level low moving up from the southern Plains into Kansas. Current thinking is that the forcing from this should be south and east of the forecast area but the NAMNEST does have it shifted a bit further west which would support some additional showers and storms across Gove, Logan, Sheridan and Graham counties but confidence in this scenario occurring is around 10% at this time.

Sunday, our county warning area (CWA) will remain in a broad southwest upper-level flow aloft downstream of a low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest. The pressure gradient from Saturday shifts slightly to the west as breezy sustained winds around 15-20 mph are forecast to continue. Further west across eastern Colorado the axis axis of a surface trough is forecast to be in place limiting the strength of the winds; this will also help limit the concern for fire weather at this time as well. High temperatures for the day are again forecast to be in the 90s across the entire area. During the afternoon hours an embedded shortwave is forecast to move across eastern Colorado and may spark some isolated storms along a weak dry line. Some severe weather may be possible with large hail currently appear to be the man threat with around 1700 j/kg of MUCAPE and wind shear of 25-30 knots along with steep lapse rates. Storm motions are forecast to be very slow as well around 5-10 mph.The NAM is a bit slower with the shortwave which would then lead to the potential for overnight storms. This will be something to keep an eye on as this is when moisture is forecast to be increasing which would allow for the potential for severe weather overnight into Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

***Synopsis***

Monday morning, ridging is favored overhead at 500-mb. This looks to transition into southwesterly flow as broad troughing develops across the Western United States throughout the day. GEFS and EC 500- mb mean-spread guidance favors this upper-level pattern to persist through the end of the forecast period. A shortwave system embedded in this southwesterly flow looks to impact the forecast region Tuesday through Thursday as well.

***Monday***

A surface low pressure traversing the forecast area Monday morning may support northerly surface winds early in the day, though GEFS and EC members suggest the formation of a weak, broad surface low across the west during the afternoon. This would allow surface winds to have a southerly component by the evening hours. Even so, high temperatures on Monday are still forecast in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Showers may develop across portions of the area Monday afternoon and evening as well. The favored zone for convection appears to be along a warm front associated with the initial surface low passing through the area. LREF guidance suggests that these showers may be associated with up to 3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability). However, the same guidance suggests 90th percentile 500-mb winds around 30 kts. While organized thunderstorms could develop, vertical wind shear may be lacking. If this is the case, convective mode would likely stick to thunderstorms that are strong around the time of initiation, but are brief in nature. Still, severe weather is possible if 90th percentile or higher winds at 500-mb can be experienced. GFS model soundings are suggestive of SHIP (significant hail parameter) values around 1.5, which could support 2-inch hail in the strongest thunderstorms. Confidence in a severe weather event on Monday rests around 5-10%.

***Tuesday - Wednesday Evening***

Southerly flow is forecast to remain in place through Wednesday afternoon ahead of the strong upper-level shortwave trough. Forecast guidance suggests high temperatures will be hot, with much of Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska between 100 and 105 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. While the southerly return flow is favored to contain moisture, hot temperatures could keep relative humidity (RH) values low. Forecast guidance suggests RH will drop into the low to mid teens Tuesday, and upper single- digits to mid teens Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may be in place both days. NBM guidance suggests greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 30 mph Tuesday and Wednesday across much of the County Warning Area (CWA). This is in addition to LREF guidance suggesting a 30-50% chance for RH values to drop into criteria for critical fire weather across Eastern Colorado Tuesday. Dry conditions may stretch further east Wednesday, as portions of Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas also have a 30-50% chance for RH meeting criteria for the hazard, and up to a 75% chance in portions of Eastern Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is highest on Wednesday, around 30%.

***Wednesday Night - Friday***

Passage of the upper-level shortwave trough looks to promote a cold front overnight Wednesday, allowing slightly cooler temperatures through the remainder of the week. High temperatures are forecast in the lower to upper 90s Thursday, and mid 80s to lower 90s Friday. Critical fire weather conditions may linger into Thursday, with forecast RH values in the low to mid teens. However, wind gusts do not look to be as high as Tuesday and Wednesday, with the current forecast in the 20-30 mph range. NBM guidance does still suggest around a 2/3 chance or greater for wind gusts to exceed criteria (25 mph or greater) for critical fire weather across Eastern Colorado, but less across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Thursday afternoon is much lower than Tuesday and Wednesday, around 10%. Cooler conditions on Friday lower the risk for critical fire weather even further. Chances for precipitation may increase on Friday as well, as troughing continues to exist to the west. NBM 24-hr precipitation guidance suggests up to a 25% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across portions of Northwest Kansas from Friday's activity.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across the area but with increasing moisture through the night am monitoring for fog and stratus overnight. Confidence is highest at MCK for IFR to LIFR ceilings and some fog. GLD is a bit more conditional as the signal has consistently remained around 30-60 miles north of the terminal but an over performance of dew points currently has my attention. Will leave GLD VFR for now but will watch closely over the next few hours. Fog and stratus are forecast to dissipate mid morning but winds are forecast to increase late morning and through the early evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1207 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions are forecast for today across eastern Colorado. After morning fog and stratus for some of the area, winds are forecast to increase starting around 16Z at 10-15 mph and increase through the afternoon with sustained winds around 15-20 mph. A tightening pressure gradient makes me think that some wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible. Guidance suggests that a period of stronger mixing should help bring down some drier air currently favoring western portions of Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado from around 19-22Z. With high temperatures forecast in the low to mid 90s humidity values are forecast to fall into the mid to upper teens for a few hours during the afternoon. Confidence in briefly critical conditions especially across the western portion of each county is around 50-60% but confidence in 3 or more hours is only around 20% which is precluding from the issuance of a Red Flag Warning. Fuel partners have noted that there has been some green up across these counties but still have concerns of longer lasting fuels remaining in place that there is still the concern for some fire threat. Also do have some concern for dry lightning during the afternoon hours from around 21-02Z. This also does align well with the SPC ISO DRYT outlook. There is a 30-40% chance that we do not get the mixing of the lower dew points to occur and actually keeps PWATS up around 0.9 inches which would eliminate the dry potential but cloud to ground lighting would still remain a concern. The biggest question remains is the amount of coverage and if this threat will even materialize in Yuma or Kit Carson counties or remain just west along with the speed of any storms as upshear/downshear vectors are around 15-20 knots, which may be a little to slow.

Fire weather concerns are forecast again mid week as a signal for hot, breezy and dry conditions continues to be seen Tuesday through Thursday. High temperatures in the 90s to 100s are forecast to result in humidity values in the low teens to even single digits across eastern Colorado and possible into NW Kansas. Fuel partners have deemed that eastern portions of the CWA has greened up enough that extreme fire behavior is not a concern.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.