textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light rain showers through early evening.

- Frost possible Tuesday morning west of Highway 25 as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s.

- Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week, perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Low clouds, drizzle and light rain showers covering much of the area this morning will slowly erode on the southern edge through this afternoon, with the latest HRRR showing clearing as far north as Interstate 70 by 22z. Afterwards, the clouds will push south again and they will persist through much if not the entire night. Deepening low pressure in southwest Kansas will result in northwesterly winds gusting to 30-40 mph generally south of Interstate 70 between 00-06z, then gradually decreasing overnight. Chance for any light showers will end with the wind shift. Due to the persistent clouds and wind, temperatures will likely only drop into the low to mid 30s for lows, so issued a Frost Advisory to account for that.

Clouds will finally dissipate Tuesday morning leaving a mostly sunny and milder day with highs mainly in the 60s. Next shortwave trough will come out of Colorado Tuesday night, and combined with surface winds turning to east and southeast will result in scattered light rain showers. Overnight precipitation amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. The showers will continue to increase in coverage Wednesday morning as additional shortwave energy moves out of Colorado in the persistent southwest flow aloft. Weak instability in the afternoon is limited to the immediate vicinity of the Front Range and not expecting any thunder here. QPF remains light through the day on Wednesday, but there is a modest increase Wednesday night, with SREF/NBM means showing generally up to a quarter of an inch, but some deterministic output suggesting locally up to a half inch or more. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with the clouds and precipitation, coolest in Colorado.

Thursday will see a stronger disturbance move out of the northern Rockies into western Colorado by the afternoon, then moving across the area Thursday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again. Instability will be limited by cloud cover, and models showing only weak SBCAPE of around 500 j/kg in the afternoon, mainly in Colorado. Deep layer shear will increase to 30-50 kts by 00z and may compensate somewhat for the weak instability in Colorado, where a marginally severe storm may be possible through the early evening before loss of heating. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Thursday night as the upper wave makes its way across the area. Additional rainfall amounts Thursday night are generally between 0.25" - 0.50", though locally higher amounts over 1" are possible. Temperatures on Thursday could remain in the 50s, especially north of Interstate 70, where clouds persist through the day, with perhaps 60s further south or west with limited clearing.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Friday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough west of the Rocky Mountains. There is also a surface low forecast to set up somewhere in southwest Kansas. Ensembles do not fully align on the placement of this surface low. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to low 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the day as embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 30-60% increasing from southwest to northeast. The environment is forecast to be moderately unstable with CAPE values generally between 500-1000 J/kg for the region. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep the environment capped, reducing the risk for severe weather. If thunderstorms are able to form, small hail could occur with stronger storms.

Skies will clear out Saturday and begin a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the southeast county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 422 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

IFR will prevail through this evening and into the overnight at both KGLD and KMCK due to low ceilings. Northerly surface winds will gust up to 30kts at times through this evening, gradually diminishing overnight. Ceilings will begin to lift and dissipate around 12z at both terminals, perhaps slightly earlier at KMCK, with a return to VFR by mid to late Wednesday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041- 042. CO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ090>092. NE...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Tuesday for NEZ079-080.