textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler the next few days with a cold front moving through. Lows are forecast to drop into the 20s. - A bit breezier tomorrow with northerly wind gusting 25-45 mph across most of the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1221 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Current observations show a broad low pressure system over the area as an upper low over the Baja Peninsula move slowly to the east. The area should remain under low pressure for most of the day as the current low shifts slowly to the east while another low pressure develops and moves in from the Front Range. The hand off between the low may allow parts of Southwest Nebraska to have a brief surge of low level moisture with the early low that produces some fog/ low level clouds. However, guidance suggests this is only a 15% chances. Even it does form, it is unlikely that it lasts more than a few hours after sunrise.

For the late morning and afternoon hours, cooler temperatures compared to yesterday are forecast with highs in the 60s and 70s as colder air begins to trickle in from the north. Those south of Highway 40 could still reach the 80s depending on how fast the next low moves in and interrupts the northerly flow. With relatively broad low pressure remaining across the area, this is forecast to keep winds in the 10 to 15 mph. That should help keep any critical fire weather conditions brief and confined to south of I-70 and along the Colorado border where the driest and warms air is forecast to set up today.

This evening and through the night, the secondary low pressure system is forecast to finish pushing through the area and move off to the southeast. As it does so, it is forecast to bring some mid level moisture through the area. The issue is that the low levels are forecast to remain dry, which has lowered our chances for precipitation below 10%. Right now, it looks like we might get a few sprinkles at best. Winds are forecast to increase around 15 to 20 mph as the night goes on with the colder air also beginning to filter in. Low are forecast to drop into the 20s and 30s.

Wednesday is forecast to be a cooler and breezier day with colder air mass over the area. Temperatures are forecast to cap around 50, even underneath mostly clear skies. This in turn is forecast to keep relative humidity in the upper teens and low twenties, helping to prevent critical fire weather conditions. That being said, there will still be increased fire danger with winds sustaining from the north around 15-20 mph and gusts potentially reaching up to 45 mph.

Wednesday night, winds are forecast to lighten as the pressure gradient weakens and inversion sets up underneath mostly clear skies. With these conditions, temperatures are forecast to fall into the 20s across the area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Broad northwest flow will be in place over the CONUS through the period. It sharpens up a bit Sunday and Monday as the pattern amplifies and a ridge builds over the western CONUS and a trough digs into the eastern CONUS.

Fire weather will be the main concern Wednesday through Saturday. Each of those days will see afternoon relative humidity drop into the teens in a part of the area. Wednesday may be the most marginal day in terms of reaching the 15% threshold for critical conditions due to cooler post frontal temperatures. Wind speeds on Wednesday however do appear favorable with sustained winds around 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. Thursday will see better chances for humidity reaching 15% as temperatures warm into the 70s. There will be a surface trough in the area, with highest wind speeds north of the trough, generally north of Interstate 70. Westerly winds gusting up to 40 mph are currently forecast in that area with a period of low humidity. The question may come down to reaching 15% for at least 3 hours as it does take well into the afternoon before that happens. Friday will see the lowest humidity confined to western areas, mainly Colorado, with a shallow cold front resulting in slightly higher humidity further east. Winds speeds somewhat more marginal but may see some sporadic gusts to 25 mph or higher in Colorado. Finally, on Saturday relative humidity is forecast to be very low, single digits, as temperatures climb into the 70s and 80s. However, wind speeds are currently marginal at best with perhaps a stray gust to 25 mph currently forecast, mainly from Yuma County into southwest Nebraska. A cold front is expected to move through Saturday night, with cooler temperatures and a modest increase in humidity for Sunday and Monday, resulting in a temporary respite from fire weather concerns.

Precipitation chances will be confined to late in the period in the more amplified flow aloft and a cold frontal passage. Slight chances for rain and/or snow are forecast for Sunday and Monday. Precipitation, if it occurs at all, will be light with little, if any, impacts expected at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the period, though there is a 10% chance of fog and/or ceilings around 800ft between 10-14Z at KMCK. Otherwise, a low pressure system is moving over the area, which should generally keep winds below 15 kts. However, wind direction should change quite a bit as the low shifts over the area. A few gusts to 20 kts are also possible between 19-23Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1228 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

For today, the area could see some briefly critical fire weather conditions similar to yesterday. Relative humidity is forecast to drop into the low to mid teens, but only for locales south of I-70 and along the Colorado border. The rest of the area is forecast to have temperatures in the 60s and low 70s keep relative humidity higher as a cold front begins to move through the area. The limiter on the critical fire weather conditions will again be the wind with broad low pressure generally keeping winds around 10-15 mph. That being said, there could be a few gusts of 25-30 mph in the aforementioned dry area, ahead of the secondary low. The chances for precipitation have lowered below 10%, lowering the possibility of some helpful rain. The good news is that the chance for dry lightning has also lowered.

Wednesday remains forecast to be cooler for now, with less than a 20% chance that temperatures could get warm enough for relative humidity to drop into the mid to low teens. Still winds, will likely gust 25-45 mph across the area during the day.

With very dry 10 hour fuels around 10-12% according to the Kansas Mesonet the concern remains for fire starts and the potential for any fires to get out of control remains high.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.