textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow is forecast to develop over mainly western portions of the area overnight tonight, lasting into Wednesday night. Most of the snow accumulation is expected over Eastern Colorado and potentially as far east as the Hwy 27 corridor.

- Patchy blowing snow midday Wednesday in eastern Colorado may lead to minor/nuisance travel impacts.

- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits to low teens.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 134 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Over the next few hours, the surface low over Southeast Colorado into the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. As the low slides east, mid and low level moisture and cooler air will push south over the Tri-State area during the late evening to overnight hours and merge with the moisture pushing east across the Colorado Rockies. Along with the increase in moisture, we are also looking at an area of vorticity at the 500-700 mb level primarily along and west of the Colorado border which will provide forcing and the potential for flurries and light snow through Wednesday night. There is also a cold front moving south providing additional frontogenesis after sunrise tomorrow.

We could see flurries as early as 5-6 pm MT in Western portions of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado with light snow moving in between 8-10 pm MT off of the Palmer Divide. Majority of the measurable snow is expected to be in Colorado and the neighboring Kansas and Nebraska counties. Flurries are possible across the area given the decent moisture profile. The peak for snowfall is currently expected to be during the day tomorrow with snow tapering off from north to south by 12 am MT (Midnight MT) Wednesday night. The latest forecast has snow amounts up to 2-3" in western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO) counties with the remainder of those counties and the surrounding ones looking at a trace to 1". There is a chance that most of the snow falls west of our area over the Palmer Divide and along the Front Range, resulting in amounts of an 1" or less for western portions of the area. The western halves of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have a 50-60% chance of seeing an inch of snow or more. There is only a ~40% chance of localized accumulations of an inch east of the Colorado border, and the potential rapidly declines farther east. This snow is expected to be powdery with snow to liquid ratios of 12-16:1. Some blowing snow is possible late Wednesday morning to afternoon, but is not expected to be much more than a nuisance due to the north to northeast winds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Temperatures tonight are expected to be in the 20s thanks to the cold air moving in overnight. With the area-wide overcast skies and falling snow for those out west, temperatures are not expected to warm up much for highs on Wednesday with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Overnight lows could fall into the teens Wednesday night with potential for wind chills Thursday morning to be in the single digits to low teens.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 225 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Overview: A pronounced omega block (the center/ridge of which will be anchored over the eastern Pacific) will hold sway / dominate the synoptic pattern over the western half of the CONUS late this week through early next week, fostering a prolonged period of WNW-NW flow aloft over the Rockies and High Plains.. while a deep cyclonic gyre/vortex in eastern Canada (centered in vicinity of Hudson Bay) maintains troughing / cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern CONUS.

Below average forecast confidence. Long range guidance suggests that episodic shortwaves rounding the northern periphery of the ridge in the eastern Pacific will traverse the Northern and Central Plains in NW-WNW flow aloft late this week through early next week. Forecast uncertainty in this period largely stems from potential interactions between shortwave energy rounding the northern periphery of the eastern Pacific ridge and shortwave energy rounding the west and southwest periphery of the cyclonic gyre in Canada. Broadly speaking, in such a pattern, one would expect unsettled weather (periodically, at least). 12Z 12/02 operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF suggest dry conditions.. with occasional precipitation confined to the Rockies and/or Northern Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 425 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail this evening and most of tonight. MVFR ceilings will rapidly develop after a cold frontal passage shortly before sunrise (~12Z) Wed. IFR ceilings and light snow are possible after the frontal passage, during the mid-late morning to early afternoon. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are likely to persist through the remainder of the 00Z TAF period. Light/variable winds will prevail this evening and most of tonight. Winds will shift to the N and increase to 12-17 knots during the cold frontal passage (~12Z Wed) with gusts to ~25 knots possible through mid-late morning. Winds will gradually veer to the NE and ENE during the afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail this evening and most of tonight. MVFR ceilings will rapidly develop after a cold frontal passage ~10Z Wed morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist into the afternoon.. eventually lifting to VFR (~3,500 ft AGL) by the end of the 00Z TAF period. Light/variable winds will prevail this evening and most of tonight. Winds will shift to the N and increase to ~14-18 knots during the cold frontal passage (~10Z Wed) and persist through early afternoon. Winds will veer to the NE and decrease to 8-12 knots during the late afternoon.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.