textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Much above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening along a dry line located in the Colorado and Kansas border area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A ridge centered over the southern Rockies today will move eastward tonight, followed by southwest flow on Wednesday as an upper low moves into the northern Rockies. Forecast problems for both today and Wednesday will be critical fire weather and convection.

As for the former, relative humidity will drop below 15% as early as mid morning in western areas and by this afternoon the entire area will see humidity in the single digits. However, wind speeds will be very light, mitigating any fire weather concerns. Wind speeds do ramp up tonight rather quickly with gusts in the 30-40 mph range by 06z, but relative humidity will be recovering and do not see any overlap between the gusts and 15% humidity. On Wednesday, a dry line will sharpen up in the vicinity of the Kansas and Colorado border area. West of the dry line relative humidity will drop below 15% in the afternoon with southwest winds gusting 20-30 mph. 00z model runs are trending further west with the dry line placement in the afternoon. In fact, NAMnest has the dry line all the way to Highway 59 in extreme western portion of the forecast area. As a result, not enough confidence at this time to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a warning, though confidence is highest in Colorado, decreasing further east in Kansas and Nebraska.

As for the latter, there is an ever so small chance (less than 20%) that a shower or isolated thunderstorm will develop this afternoon and early evening. A weak wave coming over the top of the ridge may provide some nebulous forcing, as well as surface convergence along a trough lazily weaving its way through northwest Kansas. NAMnest is the more optimistic of the CAMs that this will occur, but it appears to be overdone in the surface moisture return. It shows dew points in the upper 40s from Norton to Gove and east by mid to late afternoon, which is in the 95th percentile range of the HREF. This compared to the HRRR which has dew points in the low to mid 30s in the same area, closer to the HREF mean. While cannot completely rule out a stray updraft, weak forcing and the meager moisture will more than likely lead to little or no convection. On Wednesday, the dry line will undoubtedly be the focus for convective initiation by mid afternoon (around 21z). Shortwave trough rotating around the base of the northern Rockies low will provide synoptic scale lift. As mentioned, there is still uncertainty on the ultimate location of the dry line, and in addition the CAMs are not quite on the same page in regards to the environmental parameters. On the one hand, there is the NAMnest which develops robust convection with SBCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg and deep layer shear increasing to 40-60 kts from mid to late afternoon. On the other hand there is the HRRR, which has struggling updrafts with SBCAPE of 250-500 j/kg and deep layer shear of 25-35 kts. Using the HREF mean approach yields something in the middle: SBCAPE of up to 1000 j/kg and deep layer shear increasing to 30-50 kts during the afternoon, with a dry line near or just west of the Kansas/Colorado border. A marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon seems to capture the situation with perhaps low to medium confidence, with a risk for both severe wind gusts and large hail, especially if the higher end parameters can be achieved.

Temperatures will be much above normal both days with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows mostly in the 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 333 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Moving on to Thursday, the high temperature are in the 70s with the lows forecasted in the 40s. One concern is fire weather for eastern Colorado, guidance is showing the RH Values in the lower teens, along with wind gusts in the 20-35 mph range. The probability of exceeding 35 mph is 15-30%.

For the weekend into Monday, there is a cool down for the high temperatures. Highs look to be in the 50-70s along with lows in the high 20 to mid 30s. The probability of seeing lows less than 32 are about a 15-40% chance. Winds look to remain less of a concern than previous days with gusts up to 30 mph. There are signs of there being precipitation chances, with another upper trough. Looking at PoPs they have improved since the last forecast with values now in the 40-60%. The highest values Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The main precipitation threat looks to be rain, however if we do reach the low temperatures around freezing we could see a mixed precipitation of rain and snow. Granted this system is a ways out and there is still uncertainties with it, but it is good to see moisture coming into the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 450 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the period with either clear skies or a few clouds above 10000ft. The main concern between 03-15Z is the potential for low level wind shear with winds around 200-400ft forecast to increase to 40 kts. This should end a little earlier for KGLD around 10Z. Otherwise, winds near the surface should remain around 12 kts or less through the period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for COZ252>254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NEZ079-080.