textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures will persist. Highs in the 90s to low 100s are possible the next few days.

- Strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of the area this afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. If a storm can maintain itself for an extended period of time then very large hail could be possible.

- Another round of strong to severe storms are forecast overnight north of Highway 40 with large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding possible.

- A cluster of storms is forecast to move into the area Saturday evening with damaging winds the primary hazard.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 122 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A surface low is in place across southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado. This low is a bit further south than what was being seen earlier which has kept winds a bit breezier than currently thought. Due to the further south positioning of the low moisture is forecast to remain a bit higher than what was previous being seen as well earlier in the week. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s to low 100s across the area, due to the slightly higher dew points some spotty heat indices in the 101-105 degree range are possible across eastern portions of the forecast area.

Focus for this afternoon and evening is again on thunderstorm potential. Initial focus is across northwestern portions of the area where 500 and 250mb jet streaks are forecast to be in place resulting in the left exit region of these jets across northeast Colorado and into SW Nebraska and appears to be collocated with a subtle shortwave as cumulus is already developing off of the Front Range and the Palmer Divide. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with the potential for a supercell or two. Using NAM forecast soundings as it is handling the moisture the best as of 18Z, should a storm be able to sustain itself long enough then hail up to baseballs and damaging winds of 60-70 mph would be possible. A second area of storms across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area is more likely to develop due to forcing from the low. Current thinking is that these storms would be pulse storms, similar to the previous days with hail up to ping pong ball and severe downburst winds, before potentially clustering with some cold pool wind potential.

This evening and overnight storms are forecast to continue to develop with back building and training potential on the nose of a 700mb jet and the forecast area remaining in the left exit region of the upper level jets mentioned earlier. Confidence is increasing in strong to severe storms and additional heavy to torrential rainfall favoring north of Highway 40. Hail up to 2 inches and damaging winds to 60 mph would be the main severe weather threats. Do have flooding concerns as well with this setup as an stationary boundary is forecast to in place across Decatur, Sheridan, Graham and Gove and back as far west as Rawlins, southern Hitchcock, Thomas and eastern Sherman counties along with FGEN in place. Moist southerly winds are forecast to move across the boundary and further increase lift. Will need to watch for training storms across eastern portions of the area into the early morning hours as the mean wind becomes parallel with the 700mb FGEN. I did contemplate a Flood Watch but with potential outflow from afternoon and evening storms potentially disrupting the environment opted to hold off. The peak severe threat with the overnight activity is forecast start around 05Z and continue through around 10Z before turning into a potential hydrology potential.

Saturday, rainfall is forecast to move out of the area by mid morning. Lingering cloud cover may potentially keep high temperatures for the day a few degrees lower into the mid to upper 80s but currently do not have the confidence at this time to lower high temperatures for the day. The late morning and most of the afternoon is forecast to remain dry but some additional widely scattered storms may be able to develop during the mid afternoon hours across Gove, Graham and Wichita counties as upper level ascent associated with a 250mb jet develops across the area. There is potential that this activity does not form as well due to linger capping issues from the early morning convection. Should storms develop then large hail and damaging winds would once again be the main threats. During the late afternoon and into the evening appears to be the favored time frame for severe weather as another shortwave moves off of the Rockies and onto the Plains. Hail is forecast to initially be the main threat before merging together into a cluster as it pushes into NW Kansas and SW Nebraska with damaging winds being the main threat. There is questions however how intense and how long lived this cluster will be however as it it fully dependent on if the Saturday morning storms stabilizes the environment too much. If the environment is able to recover then wind gusts up to 80 mph are possible. If the environment remains worked over then wind gusts in the 45-65 mph range would be most likely and a lot less impactful. If the upper end winds do occur then some periods of localized significant blowing dust could occur but confidence is currently 25% at this time in that occurring. Storms are forecast to be out of the area around 06Z or even sooner if they dissipate due to the morning storms keeping the environment too stable.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 139 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Starting with the upper pattern, there is a ridge that begins to move in over the Dakotas and Canada. This ridge will begin to stall out and remain stationary for the majority of the period. Along with the ridge, there are two lows both sitting off of the northern west and northern east coast. With this pattern our flow for the CWA will mainly be weak zonal and will see some small embedded shortwave troughs throughout the week. These shortwaves will likely bring some higher precipitation chances for the area.

Sunday through Friday all look very similar with high temperatures in the low 80s to upper 90s. Beginning Wednesday there is slight increase with temperatures reaching near 100 degrees. The probability of exceeding 100 degrees for Wednesday through Friday is 5-10% for mainly areas south of I-70. Except for Friday, areas west of KS Hwy 27 along with south of I-70 will see 5-15% of exceeding 100 degrees. Moving to the winds they mainly remain out of the south-southeast. Gusts look to remain around 25-35 mph. RH values remain above 20% for the majority of the period as well.

As for precipitation/storm chances, PoPs are showing there being 15- 30% chance for the majority of the CWA for this period. Moving to storm potential, Guidance is showing there being around 1000-2000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE. Looking at Bulk Shear there is 25-40 kts. NCAR AI Convective Hazard Forecast products is showing there being around a 5-15% of severe hazards for at least one county in the CWA. Given the shortwaves that move through the area along with the storm ingredients there could be the potential of storms for the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions are currently forecast for the majority of this TAF period. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop across the area this afternoon and into the evening but confidence is currently too low to include in the TAF so be aware for possible AMD's. A better signal for showers and storms overnight is seen favoring MCK but GLD could be impacted as well. Severe weather can't be ruled out with this. Should terminals be impacted then MVFR to IFR conditions would be possible. Also LLWS is forecast at GLD due to the terminal being on the nose of a developing jet this evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.