textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the overnight, mainly south of Interstate 70. A few wind gusts of up to 50 mph will be possible.

- Patchy fog towards sunrise east of Highway 83.

- A chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight generally south of Interstate 70 with best chances south of Highway 96. A few wind gusts of 50-60 mph possible with stronger storms.

- Temperatures near normal today and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the area overnight, primarily along and south of Interstate 70. Outflow from earlier convection in southeast Colorado is the primary lifting mechanism, sustained by a weak low level jet at around 20 kts providing isentropic lift. Both mechanisms should weaken after 09z with storms moving out to the east by 12z. Overall severe threat will be low, with an isolated wind gust of 50-55 mph possible. Storms are moving so not expecting any flooding. A weak backdoor front moving into areas east of Highway 83 will result in patchy fog developing 09-15z. Low clouds may be more expansive and take until 18z or so to scatter out.

A broad ridge will extend from the Four Corners to the southeast CONUS through the short term period, resulting in zonal flow across the Central Plains. At the surface, slightly cooler air will push into the area today with northeast winds. The front will settle well south of the area by this afternoon in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. May see a few isolated light showers through the afternoon with the upslope flow. Main convection will initiate along the front this afternoon. Similar to tonight, outflow will initiate new convection northward into Kansas tonight. There is a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms late this evening and overnight generally south of Interstate 70, with best chances south of Highway 96. The severe threat will be low, limited to isolated instances of wind gusts of 50-60 mph. Precipitation will end near or shortly after 12z Thursday morning.

On Thursday, southeasterly return flow will quickly become established with dew points back into the 50s and 60s by the afternoon. Weak height rises are forecast as the southwest ridge nudges into the area. The lee trough develops in eastern Colorado, but otherwise no surface boundaries are forecast. CAMs are currently dry and no precipitation is expected at this time.

Temperatures both days will be near normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Starting Friday, elongated zonal flow over Northern CONUS with a possibility of two low pressure systems moving over the U.S. and Canadian border over the weekend and early next week. This will allow possible chances for afternoon showers from embedded shortwave troughs and cooler temperatures as cold fronts could pass by. On Friday night and into Saturday morning, there is high confidence (75%) that showers will be north of I-70. However, there is low to medium confidence (25-40%) that this will be severe as the environment conditions will be unfavorable as wind shear will be disorganized and weak. The main potential hazard will be small hail as there is sufficient CAPE over 1000 J/kg and a high lapse rate.

Over the weekend, there is low confidence (25%) for chances of severe weather due to the lack of forcing. Saturday night, chances for storms will be relatively low, but will increase at midnight near US 283. The main potential conditions of interest are heavy rain and small hail. Precipitable water (PWats) is forecast to be in 1.55 inches, CAPE above 1200 J/kg, and a "low" melting layer below 16,000 feet. On Sunday, storms are possible again in the evening hours with chances ranging from 20 to 60%. For now, the better chances favor the northern half of the area.

On Monday and Tuesday, the chances for storms continue as a potential upper trough slices through the Northern U.S. While there is variability on when the trough moves through the area, storms are possible each day in the evening. Which ever day the trough moves through will likely have a chance for severe weather.

Temperatures will be fairly consistent Friday with highs in the mid 90s and then drop into the low 80s Saturday as the overnight cold front comes through. There is medium to high confidence (50-70%) that afternoon temperatures will stay in the 80s for the remainder of the period as there is a large spread of 10F degrees within the guidance that could put temperatures in the upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures will finally start to fall from the summer heat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through the area overnight. Radar trends show KGLD will have thunderstorms near the terminal through about 08-09z before moving out. Confidence is low, less than 20%, that storms will impact KMCK. Towards sunrise, patchy fog and low clouds will develop, primarily impacting KMCK through Wednesday morning before burning off by late morning to early afternoon. VFR expected to prevail at both terminals after 18z.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.