textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms are possible late this afternoon, mainly in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties after 3pm MT. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph and half dollar size hail are the primary hazards. Localized dust storms can not be ruled out either.

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for portions of the area on Sunday, mainly along/west of Highway 25 where breezy southwest winds and low humidity could lead to rapid wildfire growth.

UPDATE

Issued at 1008 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The remainder of the Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire as conditions have improved. Dense fog does linger across Norton county where the AWOS at the Norton Airport continues to report 1/4SM visibility. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for Norton county to account for this as the coverage of any linger fog should wane over the next hour.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 258 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Features of Interest:

[1] A deamplifying upper low over central-north California at 06 UTC this morning will lift NE-NNE across the Intermountain West (today) and northern Rockies (tonight), along the W and NW periphery of a pronounced ridge over the central CONUS.

[2] Another upper level low in the eastern Pacific, located ~650 miles offshore of Oregon at 06Z this morning, will slowly progress ESE ashore northern California tonight and Sunday and slowly track eastward over the Intermountain West Sunday night.

Today-Tonight: Southeasterly low-level flow atop a cool, moist airmass has birthed widespread stratus/fog over the region early this morning. Expect ongoing stratus and fog to lift/scatter during the late morning to early afternoon, as low- level flow on the eastern periphery of a broad surface trough in the lee of the northern-central Rockies veers to the S-SSW and strengthens to ~25-35 knots, yielding breezy (~25-30 mph G 40 mph) winds this afternoon. Meanwhile, a persistent low-level (850 mb) ridge over the Deep South and Southeast will maintain an influx of moisture from the TX Gulf Coast into the Southern- Central Plains where marginal to moderate diurnal destabilization is expected late this afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest thermodynamic profiles ranging from ~250-500 J/kg of high-based MLCAPE in eastern CO to ~1000-1500 J/kg of tall/skinny MLCAPE in eastern portions of the area, e.g. Hill City, where mid-level lapse rates are on the modest end of the spectrum (~7.0 C/km). Focused upper forcing / DPVA associated with Feature [1] will pass well north and west of the the region late this aft-eve, far enough that.. the majority of the Tri- State Area will actually be on the subsident, anticyclonic shear side of a ~100 knot southwesterly upper level jet (extending northeastward from central Colorado into northwest Nebraska). With forcing largely confined to low-level convergence in vicinity of the lee trough.. and an increasingly suppressive environment with eastern extent across KS (in closer proximity to the central CONUS ridge), diurnal convective development will most likely be confined to CO. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current/recent runs of high-resolution guidance appear to be consistent with this line of reasoning. Low confidence in convective coverage and eastern extent of downstream propagation into KS. Expect greatest overall chance for convection between ~21-03Z in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border areas. From a severe weather standpoint, thermodynamic/kinematic profiles suggest that localized wind gusts to ~70 mph would be the primary convective hazard.

Sun-Sun night: Similar pattern, albeit with the lee trough centered a bit further east over eastern CO and western KS and the plume of relatively rich low-level moisture shifting eastward into central-eastern KS. Expect slightly warmer temps with highs in the upper 70's to mid 80's, little/no chance for precipitation and drier conditions with minimum relative humidity readings ranging from 10-20%, driest along/west of Highway 25 where a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect. At present, guidance indicates that light winds will prevail through early afternoon and that breezy (~20-30 mph) SW winds won't develop until mid-late afternoon. While red flag conditions are likely to occur in the watch area, the duration of those conditions may be on the short end of the spectrum.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Southwesterly upper-level flow ahead of broad troughing across the Western United States appears favored Monday. Ensemble guidance indicates the presence of an 850-mb high pressure across portions of the Southeastern United States and back into Mexico and Baja California, which would favor southwesterly surface winds across the CWA. Warm and dry conditions are forecast Monday afternoon, with highs in the mid-70s to upper-80s, and relative humidities (RH) in the upper single- digits to low teens. With wind gusts across Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas forecast in the 25-40 mph range, critical fire weather looks to be a potential hazard Monday afternoon. NBM guidance shows over a 90% probability for wind gusts to meet critical fire weather criteria across portions of Eastern Colorado, and even a 30-40% chance up into Southwest Nebraska. Further, LREF guidance shows over a 50% chance that RH values meet criteria for the hazard across most of the CWA, with nearly a 100% chance across East-Central Colorado and far West-Central Kansas. Confidence that a Red Flag Warning will be needed continues to increase, and is highest across portions of Eastern Colorado at about 40%.

Upper-level troughing is still favored to the west of the forecast region Tuesday morning, though there is some uncertainty regarding the trough's eastward progression. A slower progression of this upper-level system would allow southwesterly surface flow to continue across the CWA throughout the morning and afternoon hours, which would promote further critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. However, a quicker progression of this system would favor a cold front to traverse the forecast region during the morning and afternoon, and potentially mitigate the threat for critical fire weather by reducing RH values across the area. Most GEFS members show the cold front already south of the forecast area by the early afternoon hours Tuesday, which would indicate a faster progression of the trough. EC members are slightly slower with the progression of the front, which could allow drier conditions across portions of East-Central Colorado and West-Central Kansas Tuesday afternoon. LREF guidance suggests about a 30-40% chance for this zone to experience relative humidities meeting criteria for critical fire weather Tuesday afternoon, alongside NBM guidance showing a 60-70% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is currently around 5- 10%.

Troughing across the Western United States looks to redevelop across the Western United States Wednesday due to a digging 500-mb low out of the Pacific Northwest. Ensemble guidance indicates that this upper-level pattern could exist through the end of the forecast period. Warmer conditions may be favored Wednesday afternoon downstream of this system, though a slower progression of Tuesday's system may allow northwesterly surface flow to remain across the CWA through Wednesday afternoon, promoting cooler temperatures. Mixed modes of wet and dry conditions may be experienced during the afternoon Wednesday, though persistence of the 850-mb high across the south would once again favor southwesterly winds across the area, and thus, the drier solution. Critical fire weather may continue to be a concern Wednesday and Thursday, with RH values forecast in the low to mid-teens Wednesday afternoon, and upper single-digits to mid-teens Thursday. Wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range may be experienced both days, particularly across Eastern Colorado. As troughing begins to move in over the forecast region Friday, a cold front may allow for cooler conditions going into the weekend. Forecast highs are currently in the upper-60s to mid-70s Friday afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1102 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Lingering stratus is forecast to remain at MCK through 19Z but is forecast to be become more intermittent between 18 and 19Z resulting in the decision to go tempo. Focus then turns to thunderstorm development for GLD around 22Z. There is potential for wind gusts to around 50 knots along with some blowing dust potential as well. Should a storm directly impact the terminal then some hail may be possible as well. Breezy winds are forecast to be in place through the late evening before waning and veering more to the west during the morning Sunday. There is a 10-20% chance of showers and storms for MCK, confidence not high enough to include in the TAF at this point. Be on the lookout for potential AMD's to each TAF.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ252>254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NEZ079-080.