textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will continue off and on through tomorrow with snow mixing in this evening generally along and west of KS 27.

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for eastern Colorado for Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon. Snowfall accumulations up to 5 inches and visibility dropping down to 1 mile in heavy snow and patchy blowing snow. Travel may become hazardous.

- Tuesday and Wednesday nights, temperatures are forecast to cool below freezing. A Freeze Warning has been issued for Wednesday night into Thursday morning for areas along and west of KS 27 and a Freeze Watch remains for areas along and east of KS 25. Sensitive vegetation may be impacted by freezing temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 110 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Today, precipitation will persist off and on, and temperatures will remain capped in the 40s to low 50s. Patchy fog will also persist throughout the day and into the overnight hours. Some sub-severe storms are possible this afternoon, generally south of I-70, moving to the east. A brief gust up around 55 MPH would be the biggest hazard, but that is a very low chance.

Overnight, temperatures will cool into the upper 20s to mid 30s, due to CAA, upslope flow, and the ongoing precipitation absorbing latent heat. As mentioned, the precipitation will be continuing and snow will mix in to parts of the CWA. Most likely areas to see snow by Wednesday morning will be along and west of KS 27, but locations as far east as KS 25 may also see brief snow. Higher snowfall totals are expected in the western CWA, up to 5 inches is forecast around the Flagler area, but pockets up to 8 inches are within the realm of possibility. Locations along and west of a line from Yuma to Burlington, to U.S. 40 are expected to see around 3 inches of snow. For this reason, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for our Colorado counties starting this evening and lasting into Wednesday afternoon. The column of counties to the east of the Advisory are forecast to get anywhere from a trace to 2.5 inches with the highest amounts in Sherman and Wallace counties.

This snow will impact travel along I-70 in Sherman and Kit Carson counties. With the recent warm temperatures and rain, we are expecting the first inch or two of snow that falls to melt and turn into a slush. Once a frozen base layer is established, snow will accumulate, potentially leading to a layer of ice under wet, heavy snow. And the snow will be wet and heavy as snow liquid ratios are in the 1:5-9 range. This will make it more difficult to move the snow by hand, but will also make it more difficult for the wind to blow the snow. Combined with easterly winds generally in the 5-15 kts range, blowing snow is not a likely hazard. However, early tomorrow morning, high snowfall rates may briefly reduce visibilities down to 1 mile.

Patchy fog is also expected tonight across most of the area. Dense fog is not likely, but cannot be completely ruled out. Freezing fog is also possible along and west KS 25. This could lead to slick conditions forming sooner across this area.

Tomorrow, precipitation will start tapering off to the south in the midday into the afternoon. Temperatures will likely remain in the 30s for locations that receive measurable snow, but warm into the 40s for the rest of the CWA. This will work to allow any snow to slowly melt, but there is a 65% chance western portions of the CWA will still have snow as night falls.

Wednesday evening and overnight, we are expected dry, northwesterly air to move into the region. This will erode any remaining cloud cover, allowing temperatures to rapidly cool. Over the past 24 hours, the evening air looks to be more westerly than northerly, keeping the cloud cover around longer. If this occurs, temperatures may only drop to around 30-35 for most of the area. However, if the clouds clear out in the evening or early overnight, temperatures in the western CWA will cool into the low 20s while the eastern CWA remains around freezing. Due to the likelihood of temperatures cooling to less than 28 degrees, locations along and west of KS 27 have been upgraded to a Freeze Warning. Areas along and east of KS 25 remain in a Freeze Watch. Frost is also likely Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 252 PM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Thursday's upper flow looks to have northwesterly winds with a trough located over the southwest parts of the CONUS. Temperatures look to warm, with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s for the majority of the County Warning Area (CWA). As for the western parts of Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in CO the highs look to be in the mid 60s. Wind Gusts are forecast to be in the 20-25 mph, with the highest gusts being in Yuma County around 30 mph. Looking at precipation chances, guidance is showing about a 20% chance for the most northwest portions of the CWA. The timing for this would be in the overnight hours, and currently temperatures look to be above freezing so the precipitation type should be mainly be rain. The severe potential looks to be very low. Guidance has the maximum CAPE values anywhere from 100-300 J/kg.

Moving on to the weekend (Friday-Sunday), guidance is showing good constancy with the upper flow. The upper trough detaches and should keep the winds being northwesterly. Friday highs should be in the 70s with lows in the low to mid 40s. Winds look to remain tame in the range of 10-15 mph. There is a small chance of seeing precipation in the early morning (12 am). Guidance has shown some disagreement with the Probability of Exceeding 0.01". Currently the LREF has about 15-20% chance north of I-70. The NBM has 5%-20% chance with the main coverage of precip over Yuma, County.

Saturday will be warmer than Friday, with highs in low to mid 80s along with lows in the 40s. Wind gusts look to be higher with values in the 25-35 mph out of the northwest. As for precipitation chances, Saturday has the highest potential in the long range forecast. Currently, the timing of this looks to be Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. The Probability of Exceeding 0.01" looks to be around 20-50%. The main driving force behind this system looks to be from a shortwave disturbance with a surface low. Looking at guidance, there are signs of there being a front / dryline with this system. Looking in the warm sector there are dew points in the 50-60 degree range. CAPE looks to be showing signs of being beneficial for storms. Guidance is also showing signs of there being potential of severe weather. However there is one key thing, this is five days out and there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with timing and location of the system.

Sunday, starting with temperatures highs look to be back in the 70s and lows in the 40s. Winds look to remain calm throughout the day as well. For precipitation chances, the main focus would be on the system on Saturday and the timing on when it moves through the CWA. Monday looks to warm up compared to the weekend. The high temperatures for the day will be in the 80s, with lows in the low to mid 40s. Winds look to calm and out of the west.

Tuesday, the upper level flow begins to transition into a ridge. The new pattern will bring warmer temperatures. The highs are currently forecasted in the low to mid 90s. There is some uncertainty with how strong the ridge is. If the ridge gets stronger the probability of exceeding 90 degrees is about 20%. One other thing to note unfortunately is the Relative Humidity values. Currently, they are forecasted to be in the teens. The low temperatures look to be in mid to high 40s. This is seven days out so there is a solid amount of uncertainty and a lot can change.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1058 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

MVFR conditions are forecast to worsen to IFR and potentially minimums for KGLD, and generally remain MVFR with occasional IFR for KMCK. KGLD may see rain end around 18Z, but this system is staying on the verge of being VFR, so we'll keep the TAFs MVFR to err cautiously. Tonight, we are expecting snow to start mixing in as we approach airport minimums. Freezing fog is also possible around sunrise.

KMCK will avoid the worst of it, but will see cold rain, low ceilings, and potentially IFR fog. Conditions for both locations are forecast to gradually improve after 15Z. Icing will remain a big threat through the period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Wednesday to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001-013-027-041. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for KSZ002-003-014-015-028-029-042. CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ090>092. Freeze Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 8 AM MDT Thursday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 8 AM MDT Thursday for NEZ079. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for NEZ080-081.