textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures will persist through the remainder of the week.

- A few severe storms are possible this aft-eve. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary threat, but hail up to 1.5 inches is also possible.

- A few severe storms are possible Thursday aft-eve. Localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are the primary threat, but 1 inch diameter hail is also possible.

- Dry and hot on Friday. A few afternoon and evening storms possible on Independence Day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Overview: Southwest flow aloft will prevail over the region, between a pronounced upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS and broad upper level trough over the western CONUS.

Today-Thursday: Mainly a persistence forecast (the broad strokes, at least). A fairly typical summer-time pattern with SW steering flow, steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate instability and strong DCAPE. Effective deep layer shear will be greatest along and just east of the CO Front Range and instability will be greatest further to the east, over northwest KS and southwest NE. Environmental conditions over the region today are slightly less favorable for severe weather compared to yesterday, and environmental conditions on Thursday will be slightly less favorable than today. High-resolution guidance indicates that the timing/location of initial thunderstorm development will be similar to yesterday, i.e. developing over portions of southwest KS and/or southeast CO ~21 UTC and progressing downstream (northeast) over northwest KS and southwest NE during the late aft-eve, ending by ~04Z. Locally damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat on both days, though a few instances of large hail are possible with any isolated storms today.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

***Thursday/Friday***

Thursday morning, a 500-mb high looks to be set up across the Eastern United States, with troughing across the west. This pattern would produce southwesterly upper-level flow across the County Warning Area (CWA). Several shortwave systems may be embedded in this flow. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance is consistent on a shortwave ridge overhead to start the period, with a shortwave trough that comes through during the afternoon and evening hours. A surface low pressure at the leading edge of this shortwave trough would establish southerly surface winds across the forecast region throughout the day. Temperatures are likely to be hot, with current forecast guidance suggesting highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area.

Winds to the south of the low may be a bit more southwesterly. This would promote drying conditions, particularly across portions of East-Central Colorado. According to LREF guidance, the western halves of Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado have over a 50% chance of relative humidities (RH) dropping below 15%, with as high as an 80% chance along their western borders. Forecast guidance suggests that RH values dropping into the single-digits. Wind gusts may increase through the afternoon hours as well, with NBM guidance suggesting up to a 75% chance for gusts to exceed critical fire weather criteria (>25 mph). The good news is that recent rainfall may prevent significant drying of fuels, limiting the risk for critical fire weather. If fuels can become dry enough, a Red Flag Warning may need to be considered across this zone.

Thunderstorm activity may also be in play Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of a dryline. LREF guidance suggests a 75% chance or greater to see surface-based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) values 1000 J/kg or higher along and east of Kansas Highway 25. However, the same guidance suggests that 0-500mb wind shear will max out around 30 kts in this zone, which would suggest mostly non-severe thunderstorms. The best chance for any severe weather would be if near 90th percentile CAPE can be experienced (2500-3500 J/kg), which could promote hail earlier in the storms' life cycles. Confidence in severe thunderstorms occurring Thursday afternoon and evening is 5% or less at this time.

Similar conditions are possible on Friday, except without the thunderstorm potential. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Forecast guidance suggests that RH values may drop into the mid single-digits in some locations of East- Central Colorado. However, wind gusts look to be a bit lighter during the afternoon than on Thursday. Even if fuels are able to dry out significantly by then, the confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is low at this time.

***Saturday***

Ensemble guidance is confident in troughing from the west lifting northeast by Saturday, as another shortwave trough moves in overhead. As this occurs, a cold front is favored to move through the area. High temperatures are forecast slightly lower in the lower to upper 90s, but RH values look to improve a bit as this process takes place. Thunderstorms may occur along the cold front as well. LREF guidance suggests that 0-500mb shear may reach the 30-40 kt range, which could support some thunderstorms becoming severe. Even so, confidence in a severe event Saturday afternoon and evening is only about 5%.

***Sunday-Tuesday***

Upper-level ridging looks to take over by Sunday, and last through the end of the forecast period. A slow moving high at the leading edge of this system may prevent winds from becoming fully out of the south until Tuesday. This is reflected in the forecast highs of upper 80s and lower 90s Sunday and Monday, and low to mid 90s on Tuesday. Additionally, easterly surface winds from this high on Sunday and Monday could produce a convergence zone across Kansas. This boundary may support thunderstorm development as well. Confidence is low at this time that these storms will become severe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MDT Wed Jul 01 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through most, if not all, of the 12Z TAF period. Thunderstorms could potentially affect the Goodland terminal this afternoon and evening (~22-03Z). Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Low confidence in wind speed/direction throughout the TAF period. Broadly speaking, expect light SE to S winds to shift to the NW within a few hours after sunrise, then become variable or easterly during the late morning and early afternoon. Gusty/ erratic winds are possible in vicinity of any storms. SSE to SE winds at 15-25 knots are expected late tonight, by the end of the 12Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through most, if not all, of the 12Z TAF period. Thunderstorms could potentially affect the McCook terminal this evening (~00-04Z Thu). Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage. Low confidence in wind speed and direction throughout the TAF period. Broadly speaking, expect light SE to S winds to shift to the NW a few hours after sunrise, becoming variable during the afternoon. Gusty/erratic winds are possible in vicinity of any storms. SSE to SE winds at 10-20 knots are expected late tonight, by the end of the 12Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.