textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect for Yuma and Kit Carson counties today.

- Red Flag Warning again issued for Saturday for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO). A Fire Weather Watch issued for counties along and west of Highway 25 to state line for Saturday as well.

- Northerly wind gusts at or above 60 mph are possible in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage early Sunday morning. Winds may continue to be strong through the day Sunday, with small potential for light snow to occur at same time.

- Big swings in temperature expected this week. Temperatures on Sunday will fall nearly 50 degrees from Saturday, with temperatures rebounding into the upper 80s by next Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 152 AM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A cold front is currently moving to the southwest across the area. Have added in some smoke into the forecast as well due to thick smoke being reported by Red Willow county dispatch which correlated with a visibility drop on the KMCK ASOS down to as low as 3/4sm. KOIN in Oberlin as fell to 1.25sm as well. The smoke is being transported into the area from large fires in western Nebraska by this cold front and the southeasterly winds. Based on current observations for our CWA an hour or two reduction in visibility due to smoke is possible for the next few hours.

The cold front makes a difficult forecast for the day due to the cold front this morning which is then forecast to retreat back into NW Kansas as a warm front during the afternoon. Confidence is moderate to high in the temperatures for eastern Colorado with the Highway 27 corridor being the greatest area of uncertainty with how quickly the warm front moves through. Winds behind the front are forecast to gust 25-35 mph from the southwest. The Red Flag Warning remains on track for Kit Carson and Yuma counties with guidance favoring the strongest winds for the day across Yuma county. I did contemplate adding Cheyenne county Colorado into the Red Flag Warning as well but there still remains questions about how windy it will get due to the orientation of the 850 and 700mb jets. Also did consider adding in Cheyenne (KS) and Dundy county as well as guidance indicates a non straight front as it surges through those two counties quicker due to the stronger 850mb winds. I am opting to hold off due to timing concerns if multiple hours of critical conditions can occur although I do think that 1 or 2 hours of critical conditions will occur for those two counties.

Saturday, appears to be a classic warm and dry set up for the area as surface troughing leads to southwesterly winds for the area. High temperatures in the low 70s to low 80s are currently forecast. Guidance is in decent agreement with mid and upper level cloud cover through the day however which could potentially have an impact on how warm temperatures actually do get. This could also have an impact on strong winds are as well but think the 850mb wind field is strong enough to support wind gusts of 25-30 mph still for eastern Colorado where confidence is high enough to go straight to a Red Flag Warning. Did issue a Fire Weather Watch for Highway 25 back west to the state line mainly due to the concerns mentioned above mainly due to the elevation change in the event that the clouds do have an effect on the winds. If this is not the case then fire weather products could need to be extended further to the east as humidity values are forecast to be in the mid teens as well.

Saturday night and into Sunday morning, a strong cold front is forecast to move through the area with 3 hour pressure rises around 10mb. Precipitation chances are forecast to increase with the front along with the wind as well. Starting with the precipitation first. Rain initially looks to change over to snow as cold air advection rapidly occurs. Do have some concern for snow squalls as well with this with the 00Z NAM having very high snow squall parameters with this activity along with with 25-100 j/kg of surface CAPE. The highest CAPE is progged across eastern Colorado. Low level lapse rates at least on 00Z NAM soundings I would like to see a bit more unstable but do notice that there a pockets of 0 to -0.5 of EPV* in place. Overall snowfall amounts look to be minimal but if the convective elements do occur then some localized amounts around an inch or so are possible. Thankfully due to warm ground temperatures the majority of snowfall should melt on contact. We do need to be aware of refreeze potential as well through the day as cold air advection continues through the day. High temperatures for the day are forecast in the low 30s to low 40s.

The wind part of this system looks to be the most certain. A strong and deep wind field in excess of 50 knots is looking more likely and actually stronger than what was seen last night. Have opted to include some 50-55 knot wind gusts in the forecast across the area due to the increasing confidence in strong to damaging winds. Am opting to hold off on a High Wind Watch at this time to ensure that this signal does in fact remain. If snow can be ongoing as well with the winds then blowing snow as it is falling potentially reducing visibility to under 1/2 mile could occur as well. Forecast soundings suggests that strong winds will last through the duration of the day before waning during the mid to late afternoon. Depending on how the rain/snow scenario pans out blowing dust could be a concern as well especially with the initial surge of winds with the front especially with the warm and breezy days leading up to this event and the overall dry spell that we have been in. Those with livestock interests also need to be aware that low temperatures are forecast to fall at least into the low teens Sunday night with wind chills falling to around zero.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 158 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Will be a somewhat dramatic swing in conditions on Sunday with strong cold front sweeping through the area during the early morning hours. Confidence is high that a major change in airmass will occur on Sunday, with temperatures likely 40 to 50 degrees colder than Saturday. As would be expected with a front of this magnitude, winds will respond in kind as pressure gradient tightens in response to developing low. Quick look at deterministic soundings suggest that winds will be at our near high wind warning conditions on Sunday with even bias corrected fields indicating significant wind across region. With this potential, combined with likely surge of intense winds as initial front passes, High Wind Watch may become needed as system nears. Further complicating the matter, vertical profiles suggest differential temperature advection will create weak conditional instability leading to potential snow showers/squalls occurring coincident with the wind. While confidence not great in this scenario, there does appear to be a low (15%) threat for blowing snow to be an issue on Sunday.

Just as fast as the pattern shifts to a cold/snowy one, it will begin to flip back to a prevailing warm and dry one. While it will not be as rapid as the change this weekend, GEFS ensemble mean supports development of an anomalously strong H5 ridge developing over the southern and central Rockies. As this ridge builds, warm and dry weather will come with it. Temperatures reaching the upper 80s to even near 90 by next Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions remain forecast for each terminal. A cold front is forecast to move through each terminal over the next 6 hours shifting winds to the north then becoming variable. Winds are then forecast to shift back to the south before becoming breezy again.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252-253. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ252>254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NEZ079-080.