textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub-severe showers/storms and fog are forecast for most of the area this morning.

- Severe storms capable of producing up to 3 inch diameter hail, 80 mph wind gusts and maybe a tornado or two are possible this afternoon and evening. The favored area is Eastern Colorado, but the entire area has a chance.

- Locations that received heavy rain during the past 24-48 hours are more prone to experience flash flooding, should additional heavy rain occur this afternoon.

- Severe weather chances continue through at least Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 156 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Current observations show an upper low close to the US/Canada border around MT/ND. Meanwhile, a large upper high is positioned across much of the Southwestern and Southern United States. This has been giving the area persistent northwest flow aloft. Near the surface, there is a broad high pressure system across much of the Midwest, with lower surface pressure over the Rockies. This has kept the area in decent southerly/southeasterly flow with speeds around 10-20 mph. This has also been transporting low level moisture into the area with dewpoints generally in the 60s. The combination of these conditions has been supporting the storms that we had earlier in the day. However, the constant convection that has been in place the last few hours seems to be draining the instability as storm intensity and coverage have been lowering across the southern parts of the area. This shifts concerns to northern parts of the area where additional storms have been developing near Southwestern Nebraska. With the help of the upper low axis swinging southeast, the storms might be able to shift south into the area during the early morning hours. If this is the case, showers and storms could linger in Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas through much of the day. They would likely be sub-severe with little instability from prior convection and increased low level cloud cover and fog that is forecast to move in this morning with the moisture advection. With the cloud cover and showers/storms, most of the area should only warm into the 70s with 80s more likely for counties along the Colorado border (away from the forecast showers/storms).

This afternoon and evening, 2 different scenarios may play out. If the showers, storms, and cloud cover linger in most of the area, additional convection will be limited to whatever storms develop along the higher terrain to the west of the area within the continued upper level northwest flow. The other scenario is that we get a break further east into the area that allows initial storms to develop in counties along the Colorado border. In the second scenario, we would not only have the initial storms, but the storms moving in from the west as well. This presents a risk for significant severe weather, mainly in Eastern Colorado and adjacent counties. The forecast environment is forecast to have MUCAPE around 2000-3500 J/kg, 0-6km shear around 50-60 kts, and downshear vectors around 50-60 kts. This would suggest and environment supportive of very large hail up to 3 inches and wind damaging wind gusts likely around 60-70 mph, but maybe up to 80 mph. With the high amounts of shear, large hail may struggle to form as storms split and cluster. Storm motions though around 15-25 mph may be slow enough to keep the updraft together. The slow storms motions also pose a flooding problem with these storms likely to be efficient rain makers. A tornado or two may be possible as storms get themselves together initially, but weak low level shear less than 10 kts may hinder a bit too much. LCLs around 1000 meters also would only marginally support tornadoes. Be careful though as a strong tornado may occur with an isolated and well organized supercell.

Late this evening and into tonight, the storms should cluster and move east/southeast across the area. Depending on where the cluster forms, the cluster could move across the entire area with wind as the main threat at that point. Otherwise, those south of I-70 currently seemed to be favored. Once the cluster moves out of the area, some linger showers/storms may be isolated across the area. The main story then will be the cloud cover and fog moving back into most of the area. In the absence of storms, the fog may be dense at times. Temperatures should stay in the 60s, with maybe some 50s for western portions of the area if the skies can clear.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 126 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Wednesday and Thursday for the county warning area (CWA). Our region is forecast to be in a mostly zonal flow with multiple shortwaves traversing through the area. Severe weather is possible for the CWA with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) from 60-90% Wednesday and Thursday. The environment is moderately unstable with around 1500- 2500 J/kg of CAPE and 20-40 knots of deep-layer shear. Supercells with large hail and strong winds are possible withs storms that develop. Flooding will also be a concern since the entire CWA has received substantial rain recently.

Friday, we enter more of a weak ridging pattern with an incoming trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Expect sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in the 80s. Saturday through the end of the forecast period continues to warm with high temperatures forecast in the mid to high 90s for the CWA.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through about 10Z, before ceilings then lower to around 500-1500ft. The ceilings are then forecast to be low through about 16-18Z, maybe 21Z for KMCK. A caveat for the ceilings is that there is a near persistent chance for showers and storms through the period. KGLD's chances are around 15-30% while KMCK is around 50-70%. The issue is that these showers/storms are forecast to be scattered, leading to hit and miss periods. The short version is just be prepared for showers/storms and hope to catch a break. The severe chances have lowered, but small hail is possible through 15-18Z. After that, large hail and wind gusts above 50 kts are possible with storms.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 209 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Through Thursday, we are looking at near daily chances of convection as PWATs range around 0.9-1.75 inch. We are also expecting 0C level to be around 15,000 feet AGL, leading to deep melting layers, promoting efficient rainfall producing storms.

A Flood Watch has been issued for Dundy, Hitchcock, Cheyenne (KS), Rawlins and Decatur counties until Tuesday morning. Over the past 48 hours, 3-6 inches of rain has fallen in the area, leading to flooding. Additional storms are expected through this morning, which may compound the flooding issue.

Tuesday, another round of storms is forecast to impact the Tri-State area. Intensity and location are still up in the air, based on today's storms and how much convection occurs early Tuesday morning.

Through at least Thursday, there are returning chances of precipitation across the CWA.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ001>003. CO...None. NE...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ early this morning for NEZ079-080.