textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Monday, more severe weather is expected during the afternoon and evening hours. All hazards are possible, and will generally favor eastern portions of the area.

- Blowing dust will be possible with severe storms. Blowing dust may also occur Monday with wind gusts nearing 50 mph south of U.S. 40.

- Early Tuesday morning, a freeze watch is in effect for Eastern Colorado where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s.

UPDATE

Issued at 703 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

The remainder of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for today has been cancelled as the threat for widespread severe storms has ended.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 156 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Current observations show a large upper trough across most of the Rockies region with a large surface low roughly from the Panhandles region to North-Central Kansas. With this, most of the area is on the backside of the low and has been cloud covered through the morning. This has kept temperatures mainly in the 60s/70s with a few 80s around Highway 283 where the sun broke through a bit earlier. As the day progresses, a convergence zone remains forecast to develop near the Palmer Divide and ignite some storms that'll move east/northeast into and through the area. These storms would likely be quick and severe with mean wind around 30-40 mph from the southeast and corfidi downshear vectors nearing 70-100 kts. The likely start time is around 3-4pm MT and ending around 10-11pm CT.

Going more into the severe potential, the early cloud cover is expected to lower the instability a bit. That being said, cloud cover is clearing in Eastern Colorado which will help us recover some instability before storms fire up. With a good amount of moisture available, MUCAPE could reach 1000-3000 J/kg as the afternoon and evening goes on. With Mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, storms should be able to fire up and sustain themselves. A few more recent runs have suggested that there may be too much CIN that ends storms early, but still a 75% chance that storms push through. With effective shear around 60-70 kts, supercells are likely as long as they don't cluster and compete too much. This will lead to a chance for large hail again, mainly in the 1-2 inch range. Hail could reach 3 inches again, but much larger may be hard with the shear and wind speeds potentially being too strong and over shearing the storm. This may also hamper the tornado threat, though a well sustained supercell would have the potential to put down a long track tornado. Otherwise, quick spinups seem to be more likely. As for wind, most of the wind gusts are forecast to be in the 45-65 mph range, matching the forecast speed of the storms. The strong 75 mph+ gusts may be fewer and far between with an organized line not as likely to form. That being said, any good surge or outflow could produce wind gusts of 80-90 mph again, with 100 not out of the question due to the strong downshear vectors.

The storms should largely favor along and north of I-70 again. Those south of I-70 may see storms develop if an outflow shoots out of the original storms and is able to trigger additional storms. Otherwise, the main concern for those south of I-70 would be blowing dust along a storm outflow. A similar scenario happened yesterday with the wall of dust, and conditions haven't changed that much to where it wouldn't happen. The only difference is that the early cloud cover may have hindered lower level lapse rates and lowered how much dust could be lofted.

Once the storms leave the area tonight, cloudy skies are forecast as we still continue to wrap moisture into the area around the low. This could also develop fog, though winds increasing to around 15-20 mph should hinder dense fog development.

Monday, part of the upper trough axis is forecast to push through the area and help push the current area of low pressure a bit further southeast. This should allow colder air and higher pressure to filter into the area, increasing winds to 15-30 mph with gusts of 35-50 mph. Thankfully, the risk for critical fire conditions has lowered with the increase in low level moisture available. The issue is that those who remain with little precipitation run the risk of blowing dust developing during the afternoon hours. Currently the chance is around 40-50%, and it could be a wall if the wind shift and strengthening is uniform as the low pushes off faster later in the day. A few showers and storms may form

Monday night, cold air is forecast to continue advecting into the area from the north. This does lead to some concern for freezing temperatures to be reached with some guidance suggesting mid 20s are possible in Eastern Colorado. That being said, there could be some cloud cover and or enough surface moisture moving in that temperatures stay more in the mid to upper 30s. For now, a Freeze Watch has been issued for Eastern Colorado.

Tuesday, the main trough axis is forecast to push off to the northeast while a separate wave detaches and remains near the Four Corners Region. This will not only help weaken the upper level flow, but weaken the pressure gradient as the high diffuses across the Plains. This should weaken the winds as the day goes along, with the wind generally remaining from the north. The lower level moisture should push out through the day, but not enough for RH to drop below 25 mph and cause critical fire weather concerns. Especially with temperatures forecast to be in the 50s and 60s. There is the potential for late in the day storms as a shortwave moves through the southwest flow and with mid to high level moisture being driven into the area. For now, storms are likely to be sub-severe and may not really even make it into Eastern Colorado from the higher terrain. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid to upper 30s Tuesday night with the higher level cloud cover over the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Wednesday, our region is forecast under a southwest upper-level flow with a weak trough developing west of the Rocky Mountains and a ridge building off the west coast. Wednesday will be cool and windy with high temperatures forecast in the 60s and wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph are possible west of Highway 27. Several embedded shortwaves will pass through the region bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The entire county warning area (CWA) has a Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-40% during the day Wednesday. PoPs increase in the evening to around 60-70% and persist overnight into Thursday for the southern CWA.

Conditions remain unseasonably cool for Thursday with highs again forecast in the 60s. Our region remains in a southwest upper-level flow with embedded shortwaves passing through, so chances for showers and thunderstorms continue. Cooler temperatures and a mostly stable environment will likely keep and storms that develop sub- severe. Pops range from 30-60% Thursday overnight into Friday with the southern CWA on the higher end.

Ensembles are in disagreement on when the aforementioned trough ejects eastward and takes us out of the persistent southwest flow, but it will likely move on after Friday. A slight warming trend begins Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Friday and 80s for Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain Friday through Saturday with PoPs around 20-30% for the eastern CWA as several shortwaves pass through the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1108 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Conditions are forecast to be VFR by 20-21Z as ceilings continue to lift. Winds should remain from the north around 10-20 kts through much of the period, there could be a few gusts nearing 30 kts. The main concern is for storms to develop west of the terminals in Eastern Colorado and move over the terminals around 00-04Z. Likely, the storms will go northwest of the terminals. That being said, be advised that the storms could produce wind gusts around 50-60 kts and large hail up to 3 inches. Otherwise, the other condition of concern is that ceilings should lower again below 1500ft as the night goes past 06Z. Both terminals do have a chance for ceilings around 500ft, especially at KGLD.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for COZ090>092. NE...None.