textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Benign weather and near normal temps around Thanksgiving.

- Strong N winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic cold frontal passage Fri night into Sat, strongest (30-40 G 55 mph) Sat morning. A few snow showers may accompany the frontal passage early Sat morning (prior to sunrise).

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today-Tonight: Light southerly flow will develop over western portions of the area today as 1032 mb surface high pressure over central KS (at 16 UTC this morning) slowly shifts ESE-SE toward MO-AR (this afternoon). Expect temperatures similar to Tuesday.. albeit slightly warmer (mid-upper 40s) in the west and slightly cooler (lower-mid 40s) in the east. A strong (125-150 knot) NNW upper level jet over the northern and central Rockies (this morning) will shift east toward the Northern/Central Plains this afternoon and evening. Cyclonic shear vorticity on the eastern periphery of the eastward advancing NNW jet.. and somewhat more focused/localized ascent in the thermally indirect left-exit region of said jet.. will foster increasing mid-upper level cloud cover over western NE-KS this aft and eve. Current/recent runs of high-res guidance (HRRR/RAP/NAM NEST) do not indicate any measurable precipitation. Forecast soundings and simulated reflectivity forecasts are indicative of virga (flurries, at best).. mainly along and north of Hwy 36 between ~22-04 UTC (~3-9 pm MST). A clearing trend will follow, late this evening.. with overnight lows in the lower-mid 20s.

Thu-Thu night (Thanksgiving): Pleasant/benign weather. Expect mostly clear skies, light winds and near-average temperatures in the subsident wake of the eastward advancing NNW jet and amplifying east CONUS trough.

Friday: Guidance indicates that an upper level wave progged to move ashore the Pacific Northwest on Thu will initially progress east toward the northern Rockies (Thu night), then abruptly dig SSE toward the central Rockies (Fri) -- after an interaction with additional shortwave energy rapidly progressing S-SSE through British Columbia/Alberta -- fostering the development of a pronounced cyclone in the lee of the central Rockies. Expect a warming trend associated with strengthening low-level southerly flow / warm advection on the eastern periphery of the developing cyclone, with breezy S winds and highs in the lower to upper 50s, warmest in CO -- while low-level southerly flow will increase in magnitude with eastern extent from the CO-KS border (i.e. the breeziest south winds will be along/east of Hwy 83).. guidance suggests that pervasive low ceilings (stratus) will inhibit diurnal heating/mixing in eastern portions of the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Below normal temperatures likely Sat-Tue, coldest on Sun-Mon.

Friday night-Sat night: Long range guidance indicates that the aforementioned upper wave will dig SSE to the OK Panhandle (Fri night) then rapidly progress east (with an associated mid- latitude cyclone) across the Central/Southern Plains on Sat. The progressive nature of the cyclone (and the Tri-State area's position relative to the upper wave and cyclone) suggests little, if any, potential for precipitation -- aside from a fleeting period of strong low-level frontogenesis coincident with the Arctic cold frontal passage between ~midnight and ~sunrise Sat. At this time, the primary forecast concern is strong northerly winds in the wake of the front. Guidance presently indicates that strong cold advection and abrupt pressure rises in the wake of the Arctic front will at least partially coincide with diurnal heating (sunrise and noon Sat).. when 35-45 knot northerly low-level flow will be present. If this is the case, one would expect sustained winds ~30-40 mph with gusts up to ~55 mph. From a prior experience standpoint, in the context of an abrupt Arctic cold frontal passage.. guidance tends to under-do wind.

Sun-Mon: Long range guidance continues to suggest a potential for precipitation (snow) associated with a progressive shortwave traversing the 4-Corners, Rockies and Central/Southern Plains late Sun into Mon. At this range, confidence in precipitation coverage, location and amounts cannot be ascertained with much confidence. Broadly speaking, the progressive nature of the system would suggest relatively low precipitation amounts.. and the synoptic setup/pattern would suggest light winds.

Tue-Wed: Expect a rapid warming/moderating trend as the Arctic airmass exits the region and a low-level southerly return flow pattern ensues.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 905 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with ceilings confined to upper level cloud cover (at or above ~10,000 ft AGL). Light southerly winds will modestly increase to 10-15 knots during the late morning to early afternoon. Winds will weaken and become variable shortly before sunset and remain light/variable through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Scattered cirrus (at/above 18,000 ft AGL) will give way to broken mid- level ceilings (~5,000 to 10,000 ft AGL) late this aft and eve, mainly ~23-04Z when virga and/or a few flurries are possible. Light and predominantly variable winds will prevail throughout the 18Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.