textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue this week, with slight cool down Wednesday.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-60%) through the start of next week. Best chances will be Saturday and Monday night.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1238 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

02Z Water vapor imagery and RAP dynamic tropopause analysis indicated Pacific NW trough continues to deepen with H4 ridge axis centered over the Central Plains. Plume of moisture advecting around periphery of ridge, which was apparent in increase in nearby PW values over the past 24 hours. At the surface, elongated lee trough was in place from southeast Montana into southern Colorado.

Fairly persistent pattern will continue through the start of the week with diurnally driven thunderstorm chances and continued heat the primary concerns.

Saturday...There is a small chance for a few showers to redevelop as LLJ increases overnight, but current model trends and forecast inhibition make that unlikely. Better chance for precipitation will wait until the afternoon hours as atmosphere once again destabilizes with instability axis and persistent area of 0-2km convergence across eastern Colorado. expect to see first round of thunderstorms forming in this area before gradually building to the east in line with expected MCS movement. Not a lot of strong upper level support to really pin down an area of initiation, but with general consensus of initiation over northeast Colorado or Nebraska Panhandle and building southeast through the evening hours as 30-40kt LLJ intensifies. Confidence a bit lower than some of the latest guidance and have muted probabilities slightly, limiting best chances to the NE/KS border. High based storms/strong DCAPE/weak or marginal deep layer shear lead me to think that primary threat with any organized storms will be strong wind gusts and without potential 3000+ j/kg instability available more intense cells (like what occurred tonight) are very unlikely. With LLJ feeding ongoing MCS, expect thunderstorm chances to persist through much of the night although severe threat will likely diminish.

Sunday-Monday...Upper level pattern remains fairly unchanged on Sunday although what impact an overnight MCS has on the pattern makes a repeat of Saturday somewhat unlikely. If a large MCS does form as expected, Sunday will likely have little in the way of diurnally driven storms. However if MCS does not develop as expected, pattern on Sunday not all that different from Saturday resulting in another round of thunderstorms. Right now, think sticking with the general consensus of lower potential of storms Sunday looks to be the most reasonable, although this will strongly depend on what happens today. On Monday, strong short wave trough will begin to move into the northern Rockies allowing a cold front to slowly advance across Nebraska during the day. While front will likely not arrive soon enough to bring any heat relief, it will provide a fairly strong focusing mechanism for thunderstorms and precipitation early Monday evening and into the overnight hours. While shear and instability will remain marginal for organized severe weather, front will provide most focused lift seen over the past several days. Chances will be limited to the vicinity of the front (likely north of Highway 36) and will bring another chance for beneficial rain.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Starting on Tuesday, the upper-level ridge pattern starts to stall southward and becomes elongated over the majority of the northern half of the United States as the low pressure moves eastward over southern Canada. It then reamplifies again over the South-Central Plains on Friday. This will allow a weak to moderate strength cold front to pass through the area Tuesday evening, small chances for showers throughout the rest of the period, and keeping temperatures above average. There is medium to high confidence (55-70%) that this cold front will cause storms to be minimally severe. Storms are expected to be fast- moving towards the east-northeast with upper-level shear values being 40 kts. Instability and moisture seems to be the limiting factor as Mixed-Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) will be around 775 J/kg as well as a large surface dew point depression of 35F degrees could be present and a strong, elevated dry layer above 6 km high. Primary hazards look to be moderate-to-strong winds and a slight chance for hail under an inch.

Throughout the remainder of the week, confidence for afternoon-to-evening showers starts to progressively decrease to 10% as diurnal and weak embedded shortwave troughs will be the main driving forces for showers. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) has 15% or less for showers over the majority of the forecast area.

Even with the chances for storms and showers, temperatures will remain above average, but will decrease over time. There is medium confidence (50%) that temperatures Tuesday will be in the upper 90s due to the cold front moving through. The NBM 75th to 25th percentile range spans 8 F degrees and at the time of the that could drop temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Wednesday, temperatures will be in the mid 90s whereas Thursday and Friday will likely drop into the low 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1018 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the TAF period. Spotty low-level wind shear is forecast early in the TAF period. Winds will be mainly out of the south/southeast and light until they pick up around 17Z with gusts around 25 knots possible for KGLD. Storms are forecast to move in the area from the west impacting visibility and reducing ceilings at KGLD. Erratic and gusty winds are possible with any storms. Lower confidence that storms will make it to KMCK.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.