textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect again today for counties along and south of a Wallace to Graham county line. Heat index values and air temperatures could reach 105-110 if the front doesn't move through early.

- Severe storms are possible today with damaging winds to 70 mph and perhaps an isolated instance or two of large hail.

- Strong to severe storms are again forecast Thursday with damaging winds up to 75 mph possible, blowing dust may be possible as well during the evening limiting visibility to a mile or less. Heavy rainfall may continue through the night leading to nuisance flooding concerns.

- Storm chances continue through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1241 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A surface low is over the area leading to a decent coverage of showers and weak storms this morning across the area due to the additional forcing. Drier mid level air is forecast to gradually push in from the south during the day which should help limit or fully eliminate coverage and should let the sun return. As this occurs temperatures will rapidly increase. May not be as warm as first though but heat indices around 105 degrees will still be a concern across the Heat Advisory area. Decatur and Norton are a little iffy on how warm it will get but will leave the advisory in place for now. An 850mb jet is forecast to develop during the afternoon leading to breezy winds around 15-20 mph sustained mainly south of I-70. This may lead to a period of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions should we warm up into the 100s across that area.

This afternoon, a west to east surface convergence boundary is forecast to develop across NW Kansas and could be the source for isolated to widely scattered storm development with it. Confidence is increase that at least a storm or two will form along this boundary as it is on the nose of an increasing 850mb jet. A low end severe storm could be possible along with the potential of a landspout or two especially if the boundary remains stationary or very slow moving.

Our main severe threat looks to be this evening across eastern Colorado and across far NW Kansas and far SW Nebraska. With the low pressure system forecast to remain a little further north than previously expected, this may help keep our severe threat confined to Yuma and western Dundy counties. Wind up to 70 mph would be the main threat but if an updraft could remain strong enough then a window for some large hail up to ping pong ball size. A blowing dust threat may also develop as well especially if an outflow can get shot out of the storms and winds could remain strong to damaging. Main concern for this would be from around 6pm-9pm MT but chances of this scenario are less than 20%. Overnight additional redevelopment of showers and storms is expected along the lingering 850mb jet and a new developing 700mb jet but severe weather looks to be unlikely with this activity. If shower and storm coverage is able to wane Thursday morning then some stratus or patchy fog across the area would be possible.

Thursday, our surface low is forecast to move slowly to the east and should be out of the area enough to keep the majority if not all of the area out the triple digit heat. Based on current guidance think the far east would be the only area that could be affected by the triple digits. For high temperatures will keep high temperatures forecast on the higher side of guidance with temperatures in the low 80s across Yuma to the upper 90s across the far east. If the low were to shunt further east then temperatures would come down further and especially if the morning cloud cover lingers longer than currently forecast.

During the afternoon and evening, with the low to our east, this does open the door for some better rainfall potential with a southwest to northeast moving shortwave. A lingering cold front across the area should help further initiate convection during the evening hours. Damaging winds up to 75 mph looks to be the main hazard for the day, but am a little concerned about the blowing dust threat as the activity moves to the north as mixing heights are forecast to be significantly lower around 4000-6000 feet AGL than the previous few days as it won't be as hot. Something that could limit the dust threat however is slower storm motions and the later arrival of the convection is it may not arrive to the area until after 01Z which may be enough to let lapse rates become a bit less unstable. Rainfall may be able to continue to keep going through the evening and possibly overnight as well as mid level vorticity continues to move through the area. With the slow storm motion and the potential for redevelopment through out the night an isolated instance or two of flooding may be a concern. It appears the one thing keeping the area from a better hydro concern is that the CAPE overnight wanes so have doubts on if rainfall rates would be enough to support the flooding especially given how dry it has been as of late.

Friday, appears to be a fairly reminiscent day to Thursday as the low pressure systems moves slightly further to the east. High temperatures in the 80s to low 90s currently appears to be a lot more likely as well. Have we deserved this cool down. Showers and weak storms may be lingering through the morning hours but should end by early afternoon. Another chance for showers and storms exists Friday evening and overnight. The favored area currently appears to be across eastern Colorado where a stronger 700mb vorticity max looks to be located. During the evening an increasing 700mb jet is forecast to develop which should be able to help generate other convection further east into NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Not overly excited for the severe weather potential with this activity due meager CAPE but think some wind gusts of 60 mph may be possible. Additional flooding may also be possible with very high PWATS around 1.8 in place but looks to be dependent on what occurs Wednesday and Thursday, so will be something to keep an eye on.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 108 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The long term period starting on Friday morning looks to begin with southwesterly flow over the forecast area at 500-mb, with ridging just to the east and troughing across the Western United States. Several shortwave troughs embedded in the southwesterly flow may impact the forecast area during this time. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that this pattern is going to last until Sunday morning when ridging builds over the forecast area. However, an upper level trough/low looks to remain across Northern Mexico and the Four-Corners Region for the remainder of the long term period. A surface low in association with this feature would allow southerly flow to continue across the Southern Plains, but meet easterly flow across Kansas, forming a convergence zone.

Overall, the long term period is favored to consist of moist conditions. On Friday and Saturday, shortwave troughs embedded in the upper level southwesterly flow would allow several surface lows to track over the forecast area. Thunderstorms would be favored to form under this pattern. This is supported by NBM 24 hr guidance, which shows over a 40% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation across nearly the entire forecast region both days, and as high as a 70-90% chance across portions of Eastern Colorado and Dundy County in Southwest Nebraska Friday. Storms are not currently expected to be severe during this period, as LREF guidance suggests less than a 20% chance of seeing sfc-500mb shear greater than 30 kts across most of the forecast area. However, it should be noted that GFS model soundings show an inverted-V profile up to about 3 km, associated with surface dewpoints around 50. This could support microburst potential, where winds could locally reach around 60-70 mph with thunderstorms. However, this is not the favored scenario, as LREF guidance suggests a 60% chance or better that dew points will reach above 60 F across the forecast area. As such, confidence in severe weather occurring Friday or Saturday is less than 5% at this time. High temperatures are currently forecast in the 80s and lower 90s both Friday and Saturday.

As ridging builds in overhead Sunday and troughing develops across the Four-Corners Region, conditions may start to dry out, as forecast relative humidities (RH) drop from the 50s and 60s on Sunday to the 30s and 40s on Tuesday. This would be driven by a low to the southwest of the forecast area injecting hot, dry air into the incoming southerly flow. Conditions look to remain moist enough for thunderstorm activity to continue Sunday through Tuesday, but it is a point to keep in mind that drier conditions may be coming toward the middle of next week. As for thunderstorm activity during this period, it would be driven by southerly flow meeting easterly flow in Kansas, creating convergence in this zone. Again, LREF guidance is in support of thunderstorms remaining non-severe, showing less than a 20% chance for wind shear greater than 30 kts across most of the forecast region all three days. If hotter and drier conditions can indeed develop, microburst potential may become more of a concern. However, at this range, there is not enough confidence to say that microbursts are likely. This will be another development to watch as we go into next week. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s Sunday and Monday, and then the upper 80s and lower 90s on Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the afternoon for each terminal. Winds are forecast to become breezy this afternoon around 15-20 knots sustained. Convection is forecast to develop across eastern Colorado and send out a boundary which will shift winds to the west. There is a 10-20% chance an isolated storms may develop near GLD. A slightly better potential for storms for MCK so have included a PROB30 for this. Overnight a cold front is forecast to move through and shift winds to the northeast. With the front stratus is forecast to develop with at least IFR conditions looking likely. Some fog may be possible but with winds remaining around 10-15 kts that should help limit how low visibilities fall. Stratus is forecast to linger through at least the end of this TAF period .

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ003-004-014>016-027>029-041-042. CO...None. NE...None.