textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A few thunderstorms are expected during a cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon and evening. An isolated severe storm is possible, mainly in northwest KS between 3-9 PM MDT. Wind and hail are the main hazards. Potential impacts include, but are not limited to, hail damage to vehicles and wind damage to roofs, siding and trees.

- Warm temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s are forecast for most of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Synoptic Overview: An amplifying ridge along the Pacific Coast (tonight) will slowly shift eastward across the Intermountain West (Sat-Sat night) and Rockies (Sun-Sun night). Meanwhile, shortwave energy moving ashore the Pacific Northwest this afternoon (per 19Z SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will track east into western MT tonight.. then gradually dig SSE through central WY (Sat), CO (Sat night), NM (Sun) and the TX Panhandle (Sun night).. via NNW flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the eastward advancing ridge.

Today-Tonight: Shortwave energy over central Kansas/Nebraska at 20Z will progress east toward Missouri/Iowa late this afternoon and evening. While spring sunshine and a relatively cool mid- level airmass (700 mb temps ~0C) have fostered the development of an extensive Cu field this afternoon, meager low- level moisture/instability and subsidence in the wake of the departing shortwave will suppress/preclude shower development. Expect overnight / Sat morning lows in the 40's.

Sat-Sat night: An inverted surface ridge assoc/w modest surface high pressure in Alberta/Saskatchewan will extend southward through the Dakotas (tonight) into Nebraska/Kansas (Sat aft- eve), the leading edge of which will manifest as a northerly wind shift and modest effective cold frontal passage during the late aft-eve. Outflow (or an evaporatively cooled airmass) emanating from upstream convection in the lee of the northern Rockies Sat morning -- i.e. scattered to numerous showers/storms associated with shortwave energy digging SSE from MT into WY -- will likely augment the otherwise modest surface ridge extending southward through the Dakotas/Nebraska during the day. As a result, the timing of the front -- and specific aspects of the mesoscale pattern /low-level forcing/ over the Tri-State Area during the afternoon -- are difficult to ascertain with confidence. From a thermodynamic/kinematic environment standpoint, virtually all guidance indicates marginal instability (~500-750 J/kg MLCAPE) and enough deep- layer shear for supercellular organization / an isolated severe weather potential. While low-level convergence in northeast CO may be sufficient for isolated convective development during peak heating, simulated reflectivity forecasts via 18Z runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that convective development will be confined to the Cheyenne Ridge / southeast WY (upstream of the Goodland CWA).. in closer proximity to the aforementioned shortwave (more favorable upper forcing) digging SSE through central-southern WY. If this is the case, convection may be delayed by several hours.. until the evening.. when environmental conditions would be less-supportive of severe weather in the Goodland CWA.

Sun-Sun night: Expect cooler temperatures, light N to NE winds and little to no chance for precipitation in the wake of the front, with highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Starting the extended period Monday, high pressure is forecast to be in place across the SW CONUS with warm temperatures in the upper 80s in place over the area. At the surface a trough is forecast to be in place. The surface trough is forecast to lead to breezy winds developing with gusts around 30-35 mph forecast. Do have concerns for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions where the trough sets up and locales to the east of it. The mixed dew point from the surface to 30mb AGL according to the 12Z nam shows dew points around 8 degrees lower which seems reasonable given the set up.

Tuesday, not much change is forecast to occur in the mid level pattern but at the surface high pressure is forecast to nudge in from the north during the afternoon and shift winds to the north and weaken them as well. Winds however are forecast to remain breezy ahead of this however. Due to the wind shift and weakening of the winds for the afternoon brings some questions as to if any prolonged duration of fire weather could be on the table or not. With the positioning of the high pressure large scale subsidence is forecast to be in place across the area leading to dry conditions both Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday, the high pressure shifts to the east which is forecast to allow some moisture back into the area. A tight surface pressure gradient also funnels and dams moisture up east of the Rockies. The GFS suggests that a shortwave coming off of the Rockies during the afternoon would ignite some showers and presumably storms given the moisture in place as this setup is somewhat reminiscent of a summertime monsoonal pattern. The ECMWF is around 24 hours slower with these features and turns Thursday as a potential day to keep an eye on. Into late week and next weekend guidance suggests that the pattern may turn more active but is way to soon to get into the details at this time.

Temperatures mid to late week are forecast to continue to remain at least in the low 80s to 90s. The exact evolution of how features turn out regarding moisture moisture, etc... will dictate if we are looking at highs in the low 80s or the low 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 345 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both terminals. N winds at 10-15 knots will become light/variable this evening and overnight. Winds will shift to the SW by sunrise Sat and increase to 15-20 knots during the late morning. Winds will shift to the NW or N and decrease to 10-15 knots by early afternoon. Winds will further shift to the NE and increase to 15-20 knots with a modest cold frontal passage during the late afternoon and early evening, near the end of the 00Z TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.