textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions continue.

- Temperatures a bit up and down: cooler today, warmer again on Thursday, then cooling on Friday.

- Fog and freezing fog possible Friday morning, but confidence is medium at best.

- Mild temperatures in the 50s to 60s return next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 100 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Northwest flow continues through the short term period due to a blocking ridge parked off the western CONUS. Precipitation chances remain confined to the northern plains where the upper jet is most active while the local area remains dry. Do not anticipate any wind or fire weather concerns through the period. Temperatures will be a bit up and down. It will be around 20 degrees colder today compared to yesterday in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier this evening. Highs will be in the upper 40s. Westerly winds return tonight and Thursday with lows in the 30s and high temperatures on Thursday bouncing back to the upper 60s and lower 70s. Another cold front slides through Thursday night with temperatures on Friday ranging from the middle 40s in eastern areas to the middle 50s in Colorado. Forecast soundings do show low level clouds and saturation along the leading edge of the front Friday morning with northeasterly winds, a favorable set up for fog, and with lows currently forecast to be around 30 it could be freezing fog. Still a couple of days out so confidence is medium at best, especially regarding frontal timing and position Friday morning. Winds veer to southeast by Friday night, less favorable for fog, with lows in the 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1248 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Starting the extended period Saturday, lingering stratus is forecast to continue to be in place from the front on Friday. GFS continues to show some low level omega of 1-2 microbars from the surface to around 800mb which would continue some drizzle/freezing drizzle concerns. Temperatures during this time are below 0C so freezing drizzle would be on the table. The GFS however is the outlier on this as the NAM, ECMWF and the Canadian model have less omega and the stratus deck further east. So this will need to be something to monitor.

Temperature forecast for Saturday appears to be rather tricky as we will be dealing with the departing cold front to the east, a period of downsloping winds to the west and secondary cold front moving through. Went with the middle ground for high temperatures especially across the east as there could still be another factor of if the stratus deck can linger longer. There is a split with GEFS and ECMWF-AIFS on how far west the initial colder air mass will be which further adds to the complexity of this part. Would not be surprised to see some fluctuation of temperatures still in upcoming forecasts until guidance can come into better agreement. Confidence however is high in that the coldest temperatures will be across eastern portions of the CWA with a 20% chance that highs will not get above freezing.

Sunday, those probabilities get a little higher for the east up to around 30% chance as a secondary cold front moves through the area. Additional stratus and fog are again possible as the low levels saturate but seeing even less low level omega than than Saturday morning. The greatest spread in high temperatures is across the west as there are discrepancies at how far west the cold air will push as well. At this time I would lean a little toward the colder solutions as there is a signal that the low stratus/fog may be able to lat through the entire day before lifting in during the late afternoon.

Into the new work week, split flow returns to the area resulting in mild temperatures into the 50s and 60s to return again and our dry conditions continuing. Confidence is pretty high in this pattern occurring. There area few disturbance moving through the area that may bring some wind gusts of 20-25 mph during the afternoon so we may need to keep an eye on some fire weather potential during this time frame as humidity values are already forecast in the low 20s. But at this time nothing is suggesting widespread fire weather concerns. Mid week some guidance does indicate a system developing Nebraska/South Dakota which may support some active weather but confidence is way to low in this even occurring in the first place to go into further detail at this range.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1009 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Gusty northwest surface winds will gradually diminish through the remainder of the overnight in the wake of an earlier frontal passage.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.