textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for those along and west of a line from Culbertson, NE to Leoti, KS. Winds are forecast to gust 35-45 mph with relative humidity dropping into the low to mid teens.

- A fast moving system brings a chance for light snow Sunday night into Monday morning across the tri-state region. A trace to two inches of snow is possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 258 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Large scale upper pattern features large scale troughing from Hudson Bay Canada to the Southern Plains of the US, with a blocking ridge lingering over the western US coast, while northerly flow is in place over the Central High Plains and tri- state region. The shortwave and front that passed earlier this morning have transitioned to the south and the 850-700MB wind max has weakened locally, with strongest winds following the expected downward trend north to south. There are still occasional gusts to 45 mph in our southwest and south, but most locations are already trending lower than 40 mph on gusts and we should see much lighter winds as low level decouple at sunset. Due to very low Tds below zero RH values have fallen to the teens in CO and parts of northwest MN, though the cutoff on these lower RH values is roughly between Goodland and Colby where RH has been in the 20% range. There is still a window for eastern parts of the warning to see RH values drop into the teens, so I'm holding off for now on canceling counties for now considering this sharp cutoff in RH and lingering higher gusts. I could see canceling some counties early once we are past peak heating/mixing this afternoon.

Sunday: WAA tonight ahead of another shortwave tough may result in nonstandard diurnal (warning) nighttime temperatures before sunrise Sunday morning. Increasing temperatures and at least some moisture return in the low levels both precede the approaching shortwave and despite daytime gusts once again exceeding 35 mph at times Sunday critical fire weather conditions are unlikely as RH values should remain in the 20-30% range.

Sunday night-Monday: We are continuing to monitor this next shortwave trough passage for measurable snow chances, with a period of strong synoptic accent interacting with a near stationary baroclinic zone/region of tightening 700MB frontogenesis. Dry air in the low levels (below 4000 FT) will have to be overcome and outside of the most organized showers or banding it may be hard to see accumulating snow in all areas. Saturation and WAA in the mid levels is within the DGZ and the potential for mesoscale processes does allow for localized bursts/bands of higher rates that could saturate through this layer. The signal/trend with NBM and the later part of HREF is for the most likely region for light accumulations to extend along and south of I-70 in CO and western KS with the footprint of higher totals (1-2") likely narrower/more localized than reflected/resolved in non CAM QPF fields. There remains a low probability to reach 3" or higher (20% based on current NBM). Luckily there isn't a lot of wind within the mix layer with max gusts around 20 mph during the period of snowfall lowering potential impacts.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 258 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

The large scale pattern across the CONUS will continue to be dominated by the evolution of the deep troughing over Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes region, with the general trend in the Central Rockies/Central High Plains showing a trends from northwest flow to westerly flow with high variance in the progressive flow related to embedded features and timing/evolution of Lee troughing and any related frontal passages. Measurable precipitation chances are very low in this type of pattern into next Saturday as cross mountain/downsloping will tend to keep deeper dry air in place.

Tuesday is still a period to monitor for the next chance for critical fire weather conditions as temperatures increase and deep mixing brings lower Tds. Temperatures in the 50s and RH values in the teens appear likely, however weaker mixed layer winds and surface gradient may result in much lower winds mitigating potential for fire weather impacts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 424 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, but LLWS will impact both KGLD and KMCK overnight. Winds for the first hours of the period will be lighter and become southwesterly. Starting around 5/6Z, LLWS at 400-600 feel AGL from the west-northwest at 40-50 kts will be over both TAF sites. During this time, we expect gusts around 20-25 kts to mix down to the surface. These gusts may have a more northwesterly component than the prevailing, sustained winds. LLWS will end after sunrise when stronger winds, ranging from 25-35 kts will be reaching the surface from the northwest. Tomorrow evening, after the end of this TAF period, snow is possible for both locations, but favoring KGLD.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for NEZ079-080.