textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will continue to warm through Monday.

- Threat for heat related stress will be highest on Monday with a Heat Advisory in effect for portions of the area.

- Late afternoon-evening storm chances return by mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1234 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026 04Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated large H5 ridge remaining firmly in place over the area, with dry and subsident anticyclonic circulation centered near the Nebraska panhandle. At the surface, very similar pattern to this time yesterday with low/trough across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming and weak pressure gradient across much of Kansas and Nebraska.

Today through Monday...Aforementioned ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the region leading to little if any chance for meaningful precipitation through the start of the week as temperatures aloft continue to warm today and tomorrow as ridge center gradually slides to the south. A cold front will sweep across the area overnight Monday bringing a period of gusty northerly winds and a slight decrease in temperatures by Tuesday. With front likely not entering area until well after sunset and dry/subsident pattern out ahead of front, do not see much in the way of any precip potential as it passes. Main concern for this period will center around temperatures and resulting impacts. In a lot of ways, forecast will generally be rather persistent as pattern changes little from what occurred on Saturday. As temperatures warm aloft another 3-5C expect each day to be a bit warmer than the previous day. Triple digit temperatures still look on track across several locations on Monday, although did not a slight downward trend on ensemble values and some bias corrected data being a bit less bullish on coverage of these higher temperatures. With the warming trend aloft and little change in overall situation going to lean towards warmer side of guidance as the heat builds today and tomorrow. With the increased temperatures threat for heat related impacts will increase as well. Going strictly by heat indices, not sure if we would meet the traditional threshold for heat advisories. However, NWS heat risk algorithm showing areas of major impact on Monday afternoon and as well as impacts/poor recovery with overnight temperatures through Tuesday morning. With fair season getting going and this being one of the hottest periods this year, think a heat advisory Monday is warranted.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...A well advertised cold front will continue to push south across the region through the day with northerly winds becoming easterly and being noticeably stronger than the past few days in the 15 to 25 mph range. While technically a cold front, change in temperatures will only be 5 to 10 degrees cooler. Narrow axis of moisture/instability will accompany the front, potentially allowing a storm or two to develop along front range or eastern Colorado. Given how narrow this initial instability axis is and its rather fast motion, not confident area will see any meaningful precipitation through Tuesday afternoon, which is supported by GEFS probabilities. Chances should improve overnight however as H85-H7 Warm Air Advection provides lift required to spark a few showers or storms. If these do develop, not anticipating severe weather as instability will be limited.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Tuesday: The dominant 500 mb ridge of high pressure continues on Tuesday, but the axis slowly migrates southward. While the core of the higher heat (temperatures) will start to wane, low level south to southeasterly flow will maintain a warm and somewhat humid air mass across the tri-state area. High temperatures will generally sit in the low to mid 90s. Looking at the National Blend of Models (NBM) probabilistic data, max temperatures exceeding 95 (which is near to slightly above normal for this time of year) has fallen to around 60% or less for Tuesday (indicating a gradually cooling trend) as a weak cool front moves through the region. Heat indices will climb in the low to mid 90s as warm weather continues.

Wednesday-Saturday: A more noticeable pattern shift arrives by Wednesday and persists through the end of the week. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the upper level ridge of high pressure will flatten out and be suppressed to the south and the central high plains region has a quasi-zonal to northwest flow regime aloft with embedded short wave disturbances with decent vorticity spin within the main flow. As a weak frontal boundary sags south into the area, high temperatures thursday and friday will pull back a bit into the lower 90s for afternoon highs, although some spots in eastern Colorado may only reach the upper 80s.

Model forecast soundings have some decent deep layer shear and some indication of cape (instability) profiles that could allow for some elevated convection to fire up during the afternoon hours, especially Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evenings. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time, any stronger storms could produce a damaging downburst with lots of lower dry air in place with inverted v type soundings.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1055 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the forecast period with light and variable winds becoming southeasterly between 9 and 15kts after 18z tomorrow.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ001>004-014>016. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory from 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday to midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday night for NEZ079>081.