textproduct: Goodland

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures return to the forecast Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s.

- A pattern shift toward the end of the week will bring the potential for much colder temperatures as arctic air pushes south into the High Plains and Midwest.

- A system may bring accumulating snow to parts of the Central High Plains including the tri-state region Friday night into Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 255 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Large scale mid/upper level pattern continues to feature northwest flow from the northern Rockies and into the Central High Plains, with subsidence over the tri-state region in wake of the departing shortwave earlier this morning. Surface high pressure is in place behind the associated cold front and while there are some breezy winds (occasional gusts to 25 mph) due to daytime mixing winds will tend to decrease through sunset. Daytime RGB satellite products shows the regions that received snow accumulations (1"+) from the Palmer Divide across Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado and then southwest Wallace and Greeley counties in Kansas. This region will feature the potential for better radiational conditions and traditional colder spots in valleys may drop closer to the single digits overnight than teens like a larger part of the region.

The development of broad lee troughing later tonight-Tuesday continues to support increasing west-southwest flow and WAA into the tri-state region. Highs should reach the 50s, though they may be depressed a little more in regions of snow cover. This region that received snow may also have mitigated or delayed responses in finer fuels until snow melts Tuesday factoring into locations that are at risk for fire weather conditions. As of now conditions still appear marginal for critical fire weather with lowered potential Tuesday (see Fire Weather Section for details).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 255 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

The progression and re-deepening of the Hudson Bay low in Canada will hold a dominant influence across the Continental US pattern through the extended, and evolution of upper level flow over the Central High Plains, with much more variable trends in temperatures related to the direction of flow across the Rockies and passage of shortwave troughs/fronts. The deepest arctic air may remain farther west, but our region may still have periodic frontal passages and shortwaves within this pattern that bring the potential for impacts either from cold or accumulating snow into the weekend.

Friday night-Saturday snow potential: A split-flow pattern develops between the dominant northwest flow closer to our region and southwest flow out of the Four Corners region of the southwest US with a stronger shortwave in the northwest flow diving south and eventually interacting with another wave in southwest flow over the plains. A baroclinic zone looks to set up over KS and within the complicated interaction of these waves an an eventual arctic front passage the signal is increasing for light to moderate snow accumulations over parts of the Central Plains and a chance for warning impacts (pWSSI is 30% south of I-70) driven by the potential for greater than 6" of snowfall where the best forcing and moisture advection eventual line up. The scenarios that bring the potential higher totals (greater than 6") are dependent on the deeper moist flow in the southern wave to be farther north before the northern wave arrives, with deep saturation and WAA within the DGZ supportive of broad/high rates of snowfall. A higher percentage of ensembles members and related clusters favor this remaining just south and southeast favoring lighter snow in our region. As higher winds do not appear to align with the periods of snow in either scenario the impacts are likely to remain driven by snowfall accumulations/rates. This is a more recent trend with the up-tick in probabilities for snow accumulations and will be monitored.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 433 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Overall, the next 24 hours should be pretty nice flying weather. Winds will gradually become more southwesterly overnight and gusts around 20 kts are expected tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 253 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Drier/warm flow and increased mixing should result in daytime highs in the 50s and Tds dropping as low as the singled digits to teens (lowest Tds in the west), though temps and mixing may be complicated over areas with snow pack in the west/southwest, along with, initially wetter fuels. If snow melts early enough finer one hour fuels may still have enough time to respond to falling RH values in those areas Tuesday, but in general the greatest concern will be in areas that did not receive snow accumulations earlier this morning. Western locations outside of the areas of snow pack are likely to see RH values fall to around 15 percent raising at least some potential for critical fire weather conditions if winds were to be strong enough over a long enough duration.

Broader lee troughing results in weaker surface gradient over our region, so daytime winds will be dependent on mixing heights and max flow aloft. West-southwest flow aloft does increase in in the 850MB layer to the 20-30kt range, though the LLJ is not uniform across the region. As locations reach peak mixing soundings generally show the winds at the top of the mix layer around 20 mph, with only periodic gusts in the 25-30 mph range. Coverage and duration of these gusts may limit impacts and only brief/localized areas may touch on critical fire weather criteria.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.