textproduct: Grand Junction

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Valley rain and mountain snow continues through tonight. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the mountains through midday Monday.

- Cold air behind the front and some additional snowfall will keep afternoon highs suppressed again Monday and morning lows Tuesday will be well below freezing across the region.

- The next wave of active weather arrives Wednesday and likely continues through the end of the work week. Additional snowfall is expected across the mountains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 336 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2024

Scattered rain and snow showers are peppering the terrain this afternoon in the southerly flow ahead of the cold front that hangs to our west this afternoon. Temperatures are bobbing around today with showers mixing plenty of cold air down to the surface. As the cold front approaches and sunset arrives this evening, some of the rain/snow mix on the terrain will convert back to full snow, which should be enough for some additional accumulations across the San Juans, Central Mountains and northward along the Park Range. The drier air behind the front really chips away at snow rates tonight though, with winter highlights falling off in our eastern UT mountain zones, as well as the Uncompahgre and Tavaputs zones. Additional accumulations in the 3-6 inch range can be expected around the mountains overnight tonight and early Monday, with higher terrain above pass level pushing closer to 8 to 10 inches by Monday afternoon.

With the cold front through on Monday, temperatures will struggle to break out of the 40's in most of our counties and colder for our mountain towns with additional snowfall reinforcing the cold air. Some light accumulations will continue just west of the Divide. Orographics will take advantage of the post frontal regime of steep lapse rates and remnant surface moisture to keep a few snow showers falling much of the day Monday. Things dry out and stabilize enough Monday night to give us a window of relative quiet ahead of the next storm, which our long term forecast will get into. Morning lows Tuesday will be well below freezing with fresh snowfall draining some cold air into our cold basins.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 336 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2024

Models were in above average agreement during the long term forecast period. The next system to impact the region drifts toward the region from the northwest initially as a shallow mid-level trough. However, with a 150+ knot digging south-southeastward on its western flank, the system plunges southward closing off a low west of the Four Corners by 12Z/Wed. A cold front associated with this system is carried along, passing north to south across the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Lift associated with this system will bring widespread rain and snow filling in from north to south Tuesday and Tuesday night. Then, as the vertically stacked low drifts slowly south Wednesday precipitation chances shift to the southern zones. Thursday and Friday, the system moves slowly east across eastern Arizona into north-central New Mexico keeping shower chances over southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. Finally, the low lifts north and east Friday night into Saturday causing showers to spread north over the Continental Divide ranges and adjacent valleys before finally diminishing Saturday afternoon. The prolonged period of mountain snow will bring decent snow accumulations and this may call for highlights by midweek.

The front associated with this system will drive temperatures further downward with readings both at night and during the afternoon running 10 to 15 degrees below normal during the entire period. However, the airmass moderates slowly in the later periods so the difference between climatology and forecast temperatures will be closer to 10 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2024

The current storm will impact TAF sites across the area through the next 24 hours. Increasing moisture has caused ceilings to lower below ILS breakpoints for all but KGJT and KMTJ in western Colorado and eastern Utah. However, all TAF sites have a good chance for at least brief MVFR conditions in rain, snow or a rain/snow mix. Terminals in western Colorado may also experience IFR and LIFR ceilings and visibility overnight as temperatures fall and moisture rises. Winds will generally be light shifting to the northwest overnight as the front comes through this afternoon and evening.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ003-004- 009-010-012-013-018-019. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for COZ017. UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for UTZ025. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ023. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for UTZ028.


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