textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry conditions continue through much of the week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the San Juans and central mountains each afternoon, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures will run 5 to 15 degrees above more seasonal norms.

- A stronger storm system may pass through early next week, bringing higher precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 946 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT COUPLE DAYS:

Deterministic models continue to push a shortwave through the region over the next 48 or so hours. With moisture still sitting above normal, this added forcing will promote an uptick in storm coverage across the high terrain Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. However, this added support looks too weak to prompt many stronger storms. Regardless, portions of the San Juans and central Colorado mountains could see isolated wetting rains over the next couple day. Valleys should stay dry. The shortwave quickly dissipates by Thursday, leaving us underneath very weak flow that will only serve to continue very sparse showers over the mountains like we've seen the past couple days. Otherwise, we are still running hotter than normal, up to 15 degrees above normal in places, and this trend should persist through the week.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK:

We remain confident in a pattern shift late in the weekend or early next work week as a closed low is forecast to drop down from the PacNW. However, we have lost a little bit in confidence on the timing of the greatest surge of moisture, ranging anytime from early Monday morning to Tuesday afternoon. As it stands, the highest probability for the strongest push of moisture (and resulting rainfall) continues to be Monday afternoon and into the overnight hours, but the lack of consistency across several forecast runs is keeping clarity of the finer details at a minimum. Regardless, it seems very likely at this point that we are on the verge of another round of more widespread precipitation in spite of the uncertainty regarding timing, location, and strength. Keep an eye on the latest forecast over the coming days for additional updates as we keep awaiting better agreement among models.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 535 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue at the terminals this morning. Some scattered mid and upper level clouds will stream across the region, primarily north of I-70. Breakpoint ceilings are not expected. Cloud cover will increase some this afternoon against the Divide with some additional moisture spilling over the ridge and a weak shortwave producing some isolated showers. Included PROB30 language in TAFs at KASE, KGUC, and KTEX to account for the best opportunity for showers on the surrounding terrain. Some showers could produce gusty outflows and brief visibility and ceiling restrictions. However, widespread aviation problems are not likely.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.