textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions persist through the week, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- Breezy winds and light snow showers are likely tomorrow over the northern and central Divide mountains. Less than an inch of accumulating snow is expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 139 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Northwesterly flow has set in as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West Coast. This pattern will generally lead to unseasonably warm days, cool nights, and dry conditions.

Tomorrow an upper-level jet noses into north-central Colorado bringing enough lift and moisture for light snow showers over the northern and central Divide mountains. This setup favors mountain ranges east of the local forecast area, but we could see slippery stretches develop over mountain passes on our side of the Divide as well. All in all, less than an inch of snow is possible for the aformentioned areas. Breezy winds will combine with falling snow to reduce visibility at times.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 139 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

With a Rex Block to the west, high pressure over CA and NV and a low near Baja California, and troughing still to the east, northwesterly flow dominates over the Intermountain West. A deeper trough well off shore will nudge the high into the Four Corners region by Thursday. Temperatures will jump several degrees as this much warmer airmass moves overhead, with some locations even making a run at records on Thursday and Friday. The closed low that had been lurking off the Baja looks to finally track eastward by the weekend, though models remain in poor agreement regarding the track and strength of this feature. Ensembles indicate heightened PWAT values, which means increased cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures. There is a possibility of some precipitation with this feature late in the weekend, though confidence in this is low (<30%). Taking a peek into the extended period, there is increasing, though still low (<30%), confidence in the Rex Block finally breaking down and the pattern becoming more progressive. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in good agreement with this forecast, and 3 of the 4 cluster forecasts also break down the Rex Block and bring in a more progressive pattern. In addition, the Climate Prediction Center's 8-10 and 10-14 day outlooks are favoring a wetter pattern for the West that would be consistent with a pattern shift. Definitely something to keep an eye on going forward.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 438 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions and light, terrain driven winds are expected through much of the TAF period. Mid and high level cloud cover will move in tomorrow near the northern and central mountains. Until then, skies will be mostly clear overnight.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.