textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions prevail through Monday afternoon.

- Gusty winds are expected on Monday and especially Tuesday with gusts around 30-50 mph.

- Chances for precipitation increase late Monday and persist for several days through the end of the coming week.

- Accumulating snow is looking likely for the mountains and possible for some valley locations Tuesday onwards.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1045 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

High clouds are already spreading across much of the western CONUS and edging into eastern Utah as a low pressure trough approaches the California coast. Skies remain mostly clear across much of the area tonight with the exception of the San Juan River Basin where low stratus has been persistent much of the day and into this evening. It is slowly eroding as the high pressure ridge approaches from the west but still expect stratus to remain present overnight with some fog possible in Archuleta County and around Pagosa Springs.

The ridge of high pressure slides overhead Sunday afternoon with thin high cloud cover prevalent as the low pressure trough approaches the California coast. Expect dry conditions for Sunday with high temperatures a bit warmer up about 5 degrees from the previous day ending up around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A strong upper level jet will set up ahead of this western trough across the Great Basin and move closer on Monday, strengthening as it does. This will result in better mixing and breezier conditions on Monday afternoon with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range on average with potentially higher gusts across northwest and southwest Colorado. Monday proves to be our warmest day of the week before the pattern turns much cooler and unsettled Tuesday onward, with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal but plenty of high cloud cover will remain present. As this trough moves further inland, the jet will strengthen Monday night with an impressive jet streak of 150 to 170 kts rounding the base across SoCal into Arizona. Some showers may develop Monday evening over the high terrain but it looks like much of the precipitation holds off until after midnight Monday night or by Tuesday morning. What we may end up seeing is some virga showers that could act to enhance wind gusts at the surface.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

The next round of active weather spins into motion Tuesday morning as a strong low digs southeast into the PACNW. Meanwhile, a potent jet on its southeast quadrant runs from SOCAL up across the Four Corners. Sizable gradients with this system are showing in excess of 170KTS working across southwest Colorado Tuesday. Winds in the lower valleys 30-40 mph and over 50 mph in the mountains are expected Tuesday, and probably Wednesday. A weak atmospheric river (AR) will supply ample moisture for valley rains and mountain snow too. Left exit region forcing and AR moisture should set up some strong snow showers across our mountains. The San Juans and Central Mountains could easily see 6 inches of snow before mid-day Tuesday. Will hold off on highlights for the time-being, but given the gusty winds and persistent snow, it looks like mountain travel will remain challenging from Tuesday morning and into Wednesday, as the snow continues. Winds remain gusty too, especially across the southern mountains closest to the jet max. This is all ahead of the actual cold front, that finally drops into the region early Thursday. Snow will start tapering off Wednesday night, with a few strong bands to accompany the front's passage. Post frontal orographics will keep light snow over the mountains on Thursday and Friday. Probabilistic guidance in the 75th percentile points to a widespread 1 to 2 feet of snow across our mountains from Tuesday morning through Friday morning. This might not get us back to normal, but it certainly looks like Mother Nature saved some winter for us. Behind the front, Thursday and Friday will feel like winter, with gray skies and the mild conditions of this weekend still fresh in our minds. Cloud cover will start to lift in our desert valleys Saturday, but moisture trapped against the Divide will likely keep gray skies for the mountains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 416 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions and broken high clouds prevail through the TAF period with generally light winds. The exception will be gusty southeast winds picking up at KTEX after 00Z. Southwest winds aloft increase through the period with Low-Level Wind Sheer (LLWS) impacting mountain TAF sites after 00Z, especially KASE, KEGE and KTEX.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.