textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier weather is expected today onward, with gradual warming to seasonable temperatures this weekend.

- Gusty winds are expected in the western portions of our CWA, with speeds ranging between 30 and 35 mph.

- Sub-freezing nighttime temperatures are forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas Thursday and Friday night. Freeze Warnings are in effect for those time periods.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1007 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

TODAY:

The low pressure system that has been situated over the region has since moved out over the eastern plains. Because of this, generally dry and mild conditions are on tap for the better half of the day. Additionally, today will be another day of below normal temperatures, before warming up to more seasonable temperatures come the weekend. Periodic gusty winds are possible in the westernmost part of our CWA today as the low exits the region. Afternoon gusts will likely fall within the 30-35 mph range. Clearing skies tonight and this much colder airmass in place will promote effective radiational cooling and below freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning. Conditions will be most favorable across northwest Colorado and into some of the higher elevation valleys in the San Juan and Central Colorado River Basins. Hence, the previous Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for those areas. Widespread temperatures of 25-30F are expected, with values dropping as low as 20F in favored spots. If you have sensitive vegetation or outdoor plumbing, now is a good time to take necessary precautions to protect them.

FRIDAY + THE WEEKEND:

By Friday, high pressure will begin to nose in from the west, with an area of stationary low pressure situated over SoCal. This will create a Rex Block for the West, while deep troughing dominates the eastern CONUS. This setup will keep conditions fairly stagnant for the coming weekend, with generally light cloud cover and minimal precipitation chances. Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday will warm from the previous night, but will still be below freezing in some valley locations. Therefore, another Freeze Warning has been issued for the same locations as Thursday for the same time period. Models are hinting at some isolated showers over the San Juans/Four Corners area come Sunday afternoon as the low pressure begins to exit the Rex Block pattern. Although, there are still some discrepancies with timing and location so details are vague at the moment.

Lastly, the next chance for active weather across eastern Utah and western Colorado is not expected until early to mid-next week. Models remain in poor agreement over most details regarding this next system, so stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

There are still some lingering low stratus clouds, but this should clear by 2000Z, if not earlier. FEW to SCT mid and high level clouds are possible during the afternoon, but SKC is generally expected beginning this evening. Strong northeasterly wind gusts are expected across most of eastern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and the Four Corners area during the afternoon and evening today.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Friday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. Freeze Warning from midnight Friday night to 10 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-005-008-023. UT...None.