textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm conditions persist through the next several days.

- A frontal boundary drops south this evening, bringing potential for light precipitation to areas north of I-70 through tomorrow afternoon. Accumulations will be minimal.

- Precipitation is likely to spread across the region through the end of the work week with Wednesday expected to be the most active.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 256 AM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

As eastern Utah and western Colorado remain sandwiched between the northern stream wave train and southern stream closed low, flow aloft is mostly zonal. A 110-120 knot jet will track just to our north in association with a wave moving through the Northern Rockies today. Expect breezy conditions this afternoon, thanks to the passing wave tightening up the surface pressure gradient. The valleys north of I-70, as well as higher elevations across the region, can expect to see gusts of 25-35 mph through sunset. A weak frontal boundary associated with the passing wave sags southward tonight, stalls out near the Bookcliffs by daybreak, and begins to shift northward again tomorrow as flow aloft switches to southwesterly. Light valley rain and mountain snow will be possible north of I-70 through this period, though accumulations will be minimal. Temperatures remain elevated, with highs for most locations still 15-20 degrees above normal. With the increased clouds and showers across the north tomorrow, highs dip around 5 degrees compared to today, though still 10-15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 256 AM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

A digging trough in the eastern Pacific will send a southwesterly jet max from Baja across the Four Corners Tuesday night. This deep fetch is still expected to produce a weak atmospheric river(AR) across the region on Wednesday. Valley rain and mountain snow will become more widespread by Wednesday morning, potentially introducing some travel concerns on higher passes, like Vail. Strong warm air advection and the stubborn warm air mass in place is going to wreak havoc on the rain/snow line forecast. Temperatures in our low valleys will be in the 50's, with the Four Corners in the 60's Wednesday afternoon. Cloud cover and dynamic cooling in the mountains will help with snow levels. For now it looks like around 8000 feet for a starting point. This could be too low for the southern mountains where stronger warm air will be. The frontal boundary draped across us Wednesday and Thursday will continue to produce some rain and snow across the region. Cold air on the backside of this boundary lacks the punch to drive down temperatures and snow levels significantly. However, snow levels tick downward steadily each day into Friday. Highs around the region Friday will trend some 10 degrees colder than the start of the week.

Friday night, transitory ridging works in on a drier northwesterly flow. A little sunshine could return Saturday, along the UT/CO state line. However, orographics will continue to produce some light flurries against the Divide and keep our mountains in the clouds. Temperatures stabilize to around 10 degrees above climatology Friday and beyond. Another digging trough works ashore in the PACNW Saturday and sends strong southwesterly flow(more warm air too) back across the region Sunday and Monday. A deeper cold pool behind this wave looks to tighten the gradient and ramp up the jet as it tracks across the Four Corners. Sunday looks to be mostly dry, but additional moisture returns Monday with widespread rain and snow again. Surface winds beneath this jet max will increase Sunday and get even stronger Monday. QPF forecasts remain guarded on this next round, but it is a favorable track for a good moisture supply. AR forecasts are keeping the stronger moisture signatures southward, with around a 50 percent chance of a weak AR for our southern counties. This is still a developing forecast and could change drastically by Monday, given the track of the wave.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1039 AM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Surface winds pick up this afternoon leading to wind gusts up to 20-25 knots at the mountain terminals. Cloud cover will also increase from the northwest this afternoon, with some mid level ceilings settling across the region by this evening.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.