textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild fall conditions continue through tomorrow.

- Increasing precipitation chances arrive Friday morning with light rain and snow above 10000 feet.

- Deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and will increase the chances for impactful precipitation for southwest CO Sunday and Monday. - River flooding seems unlikely, but localized impacts due to rainfall on saturated soils are expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Mild fall conditions continue across the West Slope through Thursday. A shift in the synoptic pattern begins to take shape Thursday afternoon as low pressure drops into the PACNW. This will send a southwesterly fetch of Pacific moisture into the Southwest. High based cloud cover will begin to blanket the region, while the low levels of the atmosphere stay dry into Friday. By Friday morning some weak orographic showers are possible for southeast UT and southwest CO. The scarcity of moisture at this point will keep accumulations near trace values. Moisture continues to increase Friday and Saturday, with light rain and snow possible through Saturday. Snow levels remain above 10000 feet with daytime temperatures keeping any accumulations in check. Below snow line, rainfall is expected to remain on the light side. However, a few isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast. This could produce heavier showers on Friday and Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, AR(atmospheric river) moisture begins to fill in across the Southwest. The trajectory of this plume still favors a more southerly track, keeping our CWA out of some of the heaviest rainfall potential. However, ensemble models continue to highlight an area of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall potential over southwest CO. On the heels of heavy rainfall last weekend, this is expected to have some adverse effects on runoff near saturated hillsides. River flooding continues to look unlikely at these values spread over 48 hours. However, localized impacts from mud, rocks, and debris flows on saturated hillsides are likely. These impacts will seem more pronounced in areas still cleaning up last week's mess. Rainfall begins to peak early Monday morning as the frontal boundary swings through. This will drop snow levels to around 8000 feet overnight and Monday morning. Mountain passes will likely see some travel slowdowns for motorists Monday morning and into the afternoon, as snow levels drop more behind the front. Afternoon highs on Monday will struggle to reach the 50s for many of our low valleys.

Colder, drier air continues to invade Monday night and early Tuesday. Precipitation will taper off significantly Monday afternoon, but the shoulders of the western Divide will hang on to some light snow and rain into Tuesday morning. Light orographic rain and snow continues on the terrain Wednesday, with minimal additional accumulation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with some high cirrus moving overhead and a few cumulus over the ridges. Winds are expected to be terrain driven with occasional breezes to 20kts at a few terminals, particularly the higher elevation ones like KTEX and KASE this afternoon.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.