textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized to widespread critical fire weather conditions will be around for most of the week. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for today.

- Gusts of 25-35 mph are possible each afternoon, with gusts up to 45 mph possible today.

- Triple digit heat is expected for the desert valleys through late week. Daytime highs will be around 10 degrees above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 949 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE:

Winds will reach their peak today, as deep mixing taps into stronger upper level winds. Gusts of 30-45 mph are expected across the area, with areas north of I-70 expected to see the highest values. Locally higher gusts of 45-55 mph will be possible as well. With very dry surface conditions still in place, this means yet another day of widespread Critical Fire Weather conditions. Nearly all of eastern Utah and western Colorado are under Red Flag Warnings from noon to 9 PM MDT today. The heat firmly builds in starting today as well, with highs around 10 degrees above normal. The desert valleys can expect to see triple digit highs the next several days as a building ridge keeps us sunny and hot. Winds finally start to weaken somewhat for Thursday and Friday, finally bringing a break from widespread Critical Fire Weather conditions. That said, marginal wind gusts of 20-30 mph are still expected along the Divide and around the Four Corners, where localized Critical Fire Weather conditions will be possible. At this point, no highlights are in effect for this period.

A weak push of moisture into the Four Corners is possible by Friday, but current blended guidance isn't keen on developing any shower or thunderstorm activity. Even if showers or storms should develop, with the intensely dry surface airmass in place, gusty winds and lightning are far more likely than any appreciable precipitation. Winds aloft strengthen and turn southwesterly by Saturday as the ridge continues east and a weak trough drops into the West Coast. As a result, Saturday looks like the next day for widespread Critical Fire Weather conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 521 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Strong winds are expected today, and some terminals may see gusts up to 25 kts begin within a couple hours after sunrise. The strongest gusts are expected to begin between 17-19Z though, with most terminals likely to hit 25-35 kts throughout the afternoon. Gusts could reach 45 kts in some places, especially KHDN. These strong gusts will span into the evening, lingering as late as 03Z. Calmer winds settle in overnight and VFR conditions dominate throughout the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 949 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist through much of this week. Red Flag Warnings are in effect from noon to 9 PM for gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels. Most of eastern Utah and western Colorado are included in these warnings. Widespread gusts of 30 to 45 mph are forecast tomorrow afternoon, with localized higher gusts possible. Above normal temperatures will contribute to hot, dry, and windy conditions, with much of our area having a medium to high probability of the HDWI exceeding the 90th percentile.

On Thursday single digit minimum relative humidities are expected to persist, but winds will be weaker. Thursday's gusts are currently looking more marginal, with the strongest gusts mostly occurring over the higher terrain and in the Four Corners region. Critical fire weather conditions will continue through the week, becoming more widespread again on Saturday.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200>203-205-207-290>295. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-490-491.