textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the southern and central mountains Tuesday afternoon.

- Wind gusts of 40-55 mph will be common across the area on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the next storm system. In areas where fuels are critical Red Flag Warnings have been issued.

- Unsettled...cooler and wetter weather...will move in late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1021 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

QUIET WEATHER

Tomorrow a weak plume of moisture will advect across our CWA in southwesterly flow. This will lead to isolated to scattered convection in the afternoon, primarily over the southern and central Colorado mountains. Drier conditions near the surface will likely lead to mostly virga from these showers.

PATTERN SHIFT

A closed low over the Pacific Northwest is expected to become an open wave as it moves across the West through the midweek. As the system approaches our area, a strong pressure gradient and jet streak aloft are expected to bring strong winds on Wednesday. Most valley areas could see gusts up to 45 to 55 mph in the afternoon. Forcing should be abundant on Wednesday as the system reaches our area, due to difluence aloft, PVA, and the passage of a cold front. However, anomalously dry air will be in place as this system passes, which should generally keep QPF pretty low. Some light snowfall is possible at the highest elevations of the eastern Uintas and northern Colorado mountains. Any virga from showers, which are primarily expected in higher terrain areas north of I-70, could enhance the already very strong wind gusts. The strong gusts and drier conditions raise fire weather concerns in areas where fuels are critical. After the main system passes some associated pieces of energy will move through the area, leading to light mountain snow at times, mostly in the northern mountains. Winds are still forecast to be strong each afternoon, but gusts should be much less than what is expected on Wednesday.

Increased moisture looks to return to the CWA this weekend with a low pressure system that is expected to move across the Southwest before getting absorbed into the flow around a trough. Ensembles are showing the possibility of accumulating mountain snowfall, particularly late in the weekend, but differences regarding potential totals and timing remains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1153 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Cloud cover will increase tomorrow afternoon with some terminals seeing gusts up to 20-25 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1021 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

On Wednesday afternoon many locations below 7,000 feet will experience RH below 15% and wind gusts up to 45 to 55 mph. However, fuels have been deemed not critical in most zones. Fuels are critical in the northwest Colorado zones 200 and 202 where Red Flag Warnings have been issued for Wednesday. RH values are marginal in Colorado zones 200 and 202, but wind gusts 45 to 55 mph could overcome the RH values, leading to widespread critical fire weather conditions.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002- 006>008-011-020>022. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200- 202. UT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ022-024- 027-029.