textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire weather conditions alleviate Saturday as winds weaken. Fuels and surface conditions are still dry though. Obey all fire restrictions.

- Above normal temperatures make a return for the holiday weekend and beyond.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms could return as early as Sunday, with coverage increasing Monday.

- Chances for wetting rain remain low, instead dry lightning poses a threat to new fire starts early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1014 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THE LONG HEAT-UP AHEAD:

It appears winds have tapered off just in time for the holiday weekend as weak flow rotating around a broad Southwestern CONUS high will become established over the region. Conditions remain excessively dry though with PWAT's still struggling to pull themselves above the 10th percentile and most areas still bottoming out at single digit relative humidities. As such, though fire weather conditions will have alleviated on Saturday due to weaker winds, dry vegetation and surface conditions will still pose risks of new fire starts. It is imperative to be aware of and obey all fire restrictions, and be mindful of wildfire prevention tips.

Underneath the aforementioned high pressure, we are beginning a long, steady warm-up throughout the entire week as well. Over the weekend, high temperatures will still be near to slightly above normal with some lower valley locations peaking in the upper-90's. Throughout the week though, look for afternoon highs to climb to around 10 degrees above normal and triple digits in some valleys. To note though, so long as smoke lingers in our skies, high temperatures may be overestimated in some locations as daytime heating is inhibited. Regardless, it will be hot this weekend into the work week.

MOISTURE ARRIVING, LITTLE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THOUGH:

The pattern shifts finally beginning Sunday as a pool of moisture resting off the Baja peninsula gets pulled northeastwards around the high pressure system. Of course, by the time we see any of it (most likely starting on Monday), it will have dried out significantly, but impacts are still expected. For most of the CWA, the low-levels have just been too dry for this shift to do much more than raise the relative humidity up a few ticks. Unfortunately, this is also prompting dry thunderstorm concerns thanks to mid-level moisture and increased instability (refer to Fire Weather section for more details). Opportunities for wetting rain become much more favorable at higher elevations in the San Juans where probabilities of >0.1 inch of rainfall peak at ~65%. With the lack of low-level moisture though, uncertainty on if and where enough rainfall to quell fire concerns remains. On Thursday, look for precipitation potential to begin diminishing with more isolated storm coverage settling in by Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibility at some locations throughout the next 24 hours. The most likely sites impacted are KMTJ and KGUC where visibility may reduce to less than 5SM with MVFR conditions. Otherwise, smoke and haze will linger at most other TAF sites but visibility should remain above 6SM. Wind gusts up to 20-25 knots develop once again for the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1014 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Fire weather conditions reach their first lull in quite some time Saturday as weak flow spreads out across the region, prompting gusts to generally fall below Red Flag thresholds. With the atmosphere still very dry though, look for surface relative humidities to remain in the low teens to single digits.

Next week, the region sees its first glimpse of notable moisture in over a week. The caveat appears to be that the bulk of this moisture lingers in the mid-level atmosphere. The initial push of moisture will creep in from the south on Sunday. Inverted-V atmospheric profiles with relatively moist mid- layers could prompt some pyroconvection over hot spots on Sunday as a result. Over the following three days (Monday through Wednesday) surface moisture will be peaking. Unfortunately this doesn't mean a whole lot as most valleys won't get much higher than 10-20% RH with any soothing RH values reserved for the higher elevations. As such, concerns are increasing that we could be facing another multi-day stretch of dry lightning focused around the slopes of the San Juans, albeit other locations across the CWA are poised for slight chances of thunderstorms as well (<35% chance). This will threaten new lightning ignitions and exacerbated wildfire conditions near virga showers and any gusty outflow winds that they produce.

To leave you off with a bit of good news though, beyond Wednesday spanning at least through the end of the work week, though RH falls off once again, the overarching upper-level pattern does not appear to become conducive to critical fire weather conditions as flow remains on the weaker side. This pattern is relatively well-agreed upon amongst ensembles as well. Increasing heat and dryness will still likely pose some fire weather issues, but without the strong winds to accompany, early indications are critical fire weather conditions may be avoided. There is still plenty of time between now and then though, so stay tuned for future forecast updates in case models begin to trend in another direction.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.