textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mountain snow above 9,000 ft and valley rain is expected through tomorrow morning. Snowfall totals of 6-12 inches are possible over the northern and central mountains with lower amounts over the southern mountains.

- Impacts from the snow may only occur on mountain passes during the night time and early morning hours due to warm temperatures.

- Another round of light mountain snow is possible on Friday afternoon over the southern mountains. A brief lull occurs over the weekend before additional precipitation arrives early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1003 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

It appears deterministic models were a bit optimistic with low- level moisture this evening across portions of the CWA, particularly within valleys near the CO-UT border. This has dampened shower development for the past several hours, though it seems we're finally starting to overcome the dry surface conditions as we're seeing more scattered precipitation develop on radar. Surface observations haven't detected much of this rain or snow yet though, potentially indicating that most precipitation is falling through virga showers while the environment continues to moisten up. PoP's have been lowered 20-30% mostly over lower valleys for the next few hours as a result. Don't worry though, the expectation remains for the rest of tonight and through tomorrow morning to see scattered to widespread valley rain and mountain snow. We're still sitting well above normal for temperatures though with some places potentially reaching record high minimum temperatures. This is resulting in low snow ratios and a wetter accumulation of snow. The Park Range is favored to received the most additional snow accumulation through Friday morning with 6-12" forecasted above 9000 ft. 4-8" are expected over the Elkheads, Flat Tops, Grand Mesa, Elks, and West Elks, and lesser values over most other high elevation locations across the CWA.

A brief surge of moisture rises from the south again on Friday amid southwesterly flow as the trough pushes further east towards us. This should be the not-so-grand finale to this multi-day wet pattern. After the northern CWA received the bulk of precipitation over the past couple days, the shift in flow will favor the southern slopes of the San Juans on Friday afternoon. It's a brief shot of snow, so expectations are only for 2-6" of additional accumulation above 9000 ft.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1003 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Light showers may linger over the north-facing slopes Saturday morning due to a shift to northerly flow as the low pressure trough departs the region into the Plains, but overall conditions should improve on Saturday as much drier air moves in behind this system. The high pressure ridge will slide overhead by Sunday, providing dry and quiet weather this weekend with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Southwest flow increases on Monday ahead of the next shortwave trough that looks to pass over the region Monday evening into Tuesday, bringing another round of widespread precipitation with more mountain snow. Cluster analysis indicates troughiness over the west and across the western slope Tuesday and Wednesday but there is still some discrepancies on how deep the western trough is expected to be and therefore how cold it will get. The Canadian and ECMWF are colder than the warmer GFS so there is uncertainty in snow levels and precipitation type in the valleys at this time. Even though there is some discrepancies with the timing of these storm systems next week, it does appear like the pattern remains unsettled from Tuesday onwards through much of next week with the NBM indicating a shift in temperatures towards more seasonable levels for mid February. Until then, high temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal through at least Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1059 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Ceilings and visibilities will vary this afternoon as rain and snow showers move through TAF sites. While low end VFR conditions will likely be predominant, drops to MVFR under low cigs/vis can't be ruled out under the stronger showers. Overnight, low midlevel ceilings will persist, if not dropping to MVFR. ILS breakpoints will continue to be met for most TAF sites this afternoon and evening.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Storm Warning until noon MST today for COZ004. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today for COZ009-010- 012-013. UT...None.