textproduct: Grand Junction
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Unseasonably warm temperatures persist.
- Periodic showers and storms are expected this week. Precipitation will favor the higher terrain.
- A more robust weather system looks to impact the region next weekend/early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1020 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026
WORK WEEK OUTLOOK:
High pressure breaks down today leading to a slightly more active week of weather. The main story will be rising temperatures with most locales seeing afternoon highs ranging from 10-15 degrees above normal. Alongside the warmer temperatures, a few weak waves in the upper-level flow will advect in modest pockets of moisture this week leading to period precipitation chances, mainly over the higher terrain.
The first push of moisture arrives this afternoon over the Four Corners region. The CAMs favor convective development just to our south and west, but orographic forcing over the southern mountains will likely lead to scattered showers, a few storms, and a couple inches of snow up high. Another round of showers and storms is possible along the Divide tomorrow afternoon. After that, lingering moisture supports light orographic precipitation each afternoon/evening through Friday. However, QPF looks very light after Tuesday.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK:
The global ensembles are keying in on a robust trough moving across the Western US next weekend into early next week. While it is too early to dive into the details, these systems generally bring an influx of cooler air and wetter weather as they pass through.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026
VFR conditions will persist at most terminals through the period. A passing disturbance to our south will lift some mid and upper level cloud cover into the region, mostly south of I-70. Breakpoint ceilings are not expected. Kept VCSH in KTEX, as orographic showers on the mountain have the best chance at any impacts. A few gusty outflows can't be ruled out with nearby showers. Non zero precipitation chances will remain present for the mountains through Tuesday morning. Shower activity will be limited by the dry conditions in the lower atmosphere. Clouds will thin some early Tuesday, but some will linger on the terrain along the Divide beyond this period.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...None. UT...None.
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