textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds are expected to continue through this evening with gusts around 30-50 mph and upwards of 70 mph in the mountains.

- Another round of moderate to heavy snow is expected today through the evening. A few thunderstorms capable of strong winds are possible this afternoon as well.

- A final round of snow is expected Thursday night and Friday, with drier conditions this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

A shortwave trough is approaching the area from the west today. Strong southwesterly winds ahead of the trough will result in gusty winds for many locations. Gusts of 30-50 mph will be common with 50- 70 mph in the mountains through early evening. There may be enough instability to support a few lightning strikes and more organized convection, which would certainly increase the potential for 50 mph gusts. This does introduce a slight potential for snow squalls during the evening commute where temperatures are at or just above freezing. For most locations precipitation type will be all snow, with rain to a rain snow mix limited to lower valleys. A cold front pushes through the area this afternoon. After the cold front pushes through the desert valley floors will see a transition to all snow, but a majority of the precipitation will be done. Light showers will linger through the night before finally tapering off Thursday morning.

Additional snowfall is expected to be around 4-12 inches generally above 8 kft. Below that elevation, totals will be under 4 inches with not much below 6 kft. There could be difficult travel over the passes during Thursday morning's commute, especially with some still breezy winds aloft. Winds gradually decrease overnight, but the mountains stay gusty into tomorrow. A ridge builds in by midday Thursday, with light orographic showers lingering over the higher terrain. Minor accumulations under 2 inches will be possible at the higher elevations of the northern ranges.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

A modest shortwave trough digs into the Four Corners Friday morning. It picks up another shot of Pacific moisture, likely some leftover from the previous storm cycle. The peak rates will be Friday morning and temperatures will be cold enough for snow at all locations. The central and southern mountains will be favored with amounts in general around 6-12 inches and lesser amounts north of I-70. The southern valleys and foothills could end up with with around 3-6 inches. The snow gets going Thursday evening and continues through about Friday afternoon and or evening. The generous cold air in place and higher liquid snow ratios will jack up accumulations a bit too.

Quiet weather is expected for the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 457 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Gusty winds and mountain snow showers will continue this evening, before tapering off during the overnight hours. Breakpoint conditions are expected to continue for the mountain terminals as cloud cover hangs up on the terrain through the night and into Thursday. Mountain conditions are expected to improve Thursday afternoon with lighter winds expected and ceilings lifting out. Some uncertainty exists with KEGE and KASE with how much cloud cover will stick around in the afternoon, and whether they will lift above breakpoint for ceilings.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ001-002- 006>008-011-014-020>022. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ003-004- 009-010-012-013-017>019. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ005-023. UT...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ022-024-027- 029. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for UTZ023-025- 028.