textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Record-breaking heat is expected for western Colorado and eastern Utah beginning this weekend.

- Daytime highs for the lower elevations are forecast to run between 100F and 106F. Consider limiting time outdoors during the heat of the day.

- Moisture looks to return next week, potentially bringing increased cloud cover and daily chances of convection.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

High pressure will drift directly overhead today and tomorrow bringing hot and dry conditions to the region. High temperatures will be near record values during this stretch. Easterly flow on the southern side of the high pressure looks to impact locations across the south the next few days. It will result in strong overnight winds in the Four Corners region. The other thing is that the easterly flow ushers in midlevel moisture from the Front Range. This moisture will be sufficient enough to support diurnal convection in the southern and central mountains starting tomorrow. The main threat from these showers and storms will be strong gusty outflow winds given the hot and dry surface conditions. There are signs that this moisture may linger and get recycled each day to fuel afternoon storms. If that is the case there will be an increase in the coverage and rainfall rates each day. The one factor working against that will be the heat. Temperatures are expected to gradually decrease each day as the high moves towards the Northern Plains, and moisture increases, but despite that it is still warmer than normal. Now the potential for rainfall, clouds and outflows could cause cooler temperatures, so the forecast may be on the high side. This uncertainty is evident in the large high temperature model spread as we get into mid to late week. With the moisture sticking around next week we could be looking at daily showers and storms and perhaps heavy rainfall. Dew points are forecasted to reach the upper 40s and 50s for some locations, which would support those heavy rates. The other thing to note is that with the easterly flow, which is not common, storms will move westerly. This changes where storm development will be favored and the places downwind of that development.

Here are some all-time record highs...

* Grand Junction: 107F (2023) * Meeker: 99F (2005) * Rifle: 104F (2021) * Craig: 101F (2023) * Vernal: 104F (2021)

Now for Sunday's forecasted highs for those same areas...

* Grand Junction: 104F * Meeker: 99F * Rifle: 101F * Craig: 100F * Vernal: 101F

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. A few afternoon gusts can't be ruled out, but they shouldn't pose any aviation concerns. Lastly, wildfire smoke could impact terminals from time to time, but stronger sustained winds overnight should help keep smoke from pooling in the valleys.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT Monday night for COZ001-002-006-007. Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night for COZ011-020- 021. UT...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT Monday night for UTZ024-027. Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT Sunday night for UTZ022-029.