textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry conditions continue through much of the week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the San Juans and central mountains each afternoon, especially today and Wednesday.

- High temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

- A stronger storm system may pass through early next week, bringing chances for widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1149 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

DAILY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON:

A shortwave trough is moving across the region today. This shortwave will provide some support for mountain showers and thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon hours over the southern and central Colorado mountains. After today, afternoon showers and storms remain in the forecast each day through Saturday. Substantial rainfall is not expected from this convective activity, but the majority of any measurable precipitation is expected to occur today and tomorrow. High temperatures will continue to be above normal each day through the workweek, with highs forecast to be 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINNING SUNDAY:

A closed low looks to develop over the Pacific Northwest later this week, moving southward along the West Coast and then potentially inland across the Intermountain West late this weekend or early next week. Guidance has consistently shown this pattern shift between runs, and deterministic models are in relatively good agreement about the initial development and movement of the low. So, confidence has increased regarding this pattern shift and the subsequent potential for widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures in our region. However, confidence regarding timing and impacts for our area is still low at this point. Over the coming days confidence in the forecast for moisture and forcing will increase and potential impacts will become more understood.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1118 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Cloud cover will increase some this afternoon against the Divide with some additional moisture spilling over the ridge and a weak shortwave producing some isolated showers. Included PROB30 language in TAFs at KASE, KGUC, and KTEX to account for the best opportunity for showers on the surrounding terrain. Some showers could produce gusty outflows and brief visibility and ceiling restrictions. However, widespread aviation problems are not likely.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.