textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot,dry, and windy conditions continue Friday, Saturday, and possibly Sunday. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in place.

- A deep trough dips into the Great Basin Sunday afternoon, bringing precipitation chances to northeast UT and northwest CO.

- Mountain snow looks to accompany this system early Monday morning.

- Freezing temperatures are expected to impact portions of the region Monday and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1019 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Broad cyclonic flow dips south of the Canadian border on Friday, sending some stronger winds aloft across the West Slope. Well mixed conditions should find us under another breezy afternoon here in eastern UT and western CO. Low relative humidity and critical fuels for portions of the region have prompted Red Flag Warnings for another day and watches for Saturday(likely becoming Warnings). Low pressure digs south out of coastal British Columbia, tightening the upper level gradient ahead of the deepening trough pushing into the Great Basin Saturday. This will produce wind gusts 30-40 mph across the region Saturday afternoon. South of the Colorado River the persistent dry air mass will hang on long enough to produce likely critical fire weather conditions for our zones with critical fuels. A Fire Weather Watch is in place and will likely upgrade to a Warning in the coming package Friday.

A potent jet streak rounding the base of the trough on Sunday produces another round of strong winds for southeast UT and southwest CO. The moisture pool in the gut of the trough fails to make it south of highway 50 by current model expectations. Holding off on additional fire products for COZ290,292, and UTZ490, but the concern is there considering the strong winds expected Sunday afternoon. Shower chances spread into northeast UT and northwest CO Sunday afternoon, as a series of vort maxima lift into the region ahead of the mid level trough. Precipitation spreads south to the Four Corners late Sunday night and early Monday. Freezing levels work their way down too as the deep pool of cold air filters in. This could produce some snow on mountain passes for Monday morning commuters. The main trough begins to lift out Monday night. Precipitation will hang up on the Divide Tuesday and Wednesday with some afternoon showers left over. Freezing temperatures will likely impact portions of the CWA Tuesday and Wednesday morning behind this cold front. Afternoon highs will trend down from near normal Sunday to well below normal Monday and Tuesday. Transitional ridging brings things back near normal on Wednesday and Thursday with a potential warm up in the works as high pressure crosses the Rockies.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 501 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions can be expected the next 24 hours with increasing mid to high clouds through the latter part of the forecast. The main concern will be gusty winds to 35 mph developing during the peak heating hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Winds will increase across the north Friday ahead of an approaching disturbance where coverage of gusty winds and low relative humidity has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for NE Utah and NW Colorado Fire Zones where fuels are critical (UTZ486-487, COZ200-202-293). Conditions remain dry mainly along and south of I-70 on Saturday with winds increasing and becoming more widespread, prompting the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for UTZ490 and COZ290 and 292 where coverage and duration is best. Conditions are more borderline across the north in terms of RH. Humidity increases late Saturday into Sunday for the northern half of the CWA, with better chances of widespread precipitation and wetting rain Sunday and Monday. However, low relative humidities and strong winds on Sunday could drive more critical fire weather headlines for COZ290,292, and UTZ490.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-293. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for COZ290-292. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for UTZ490.