textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions continue through tomorrow afternoon.

- Gusty winds are expected tomorrow through at least Wednesday, but the strongest winds will occur on Tuesday. Gusts around 30-50 mph are expected, with stronger gusts possible in the mountains.

- A winter storm system arrives late tomorrow night and will last through early Thursday morning. Periods of heavier snowfall and strong winds could result in hazardous travel conditions, especially over mountain passes.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 139 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Ridging aloft is keeping the weather quiet and warm today. Moisture is beginning to advect into the region within southwesterly flow, which has brought increased cloud cover.Tonight a low pressure system off of the coast of California will become an open wave as it propagates eastward. At the same time, a more northern trough will dig southward along the West Coast. These two waves will eventually reach our CWA during the long term period, bringing synoptic support for the upcoming winter storm system. On Monday, ahead of this system, stronger moisture advection is expected, which will allow for continuous cloud cover through much of the day. Despite the cloud cover, high temperatures will warm to 15 degrees above normal, thanks to ridging aloft and WAA in southwesterly flow. Tomorrow winds will increase as the pressure gradient gradually increases ahead of the incoming system, and an upper level jet moves overhead.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 139 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

As the first of several shortwaves approaches from the west the pressure gradient aloft tightens causing winds to increase across the area. The strongest winds will be on Tuesday with gusts around 30-50 mph and perhaps upwards of 70 mph in the mountains. Moisture and forcing from the wave arrives on late Monday resulting in scattered to widespread precipitation. Those showers look to linger linger on Tuesday as the wave passes overhead. Moderate to heavy snowfall rates are possible Tuesday morning and that combined with the gusty winds could result in difficult travel conditions in the mountains. In fact, there is a potential for snow squalls especially along the front on Tuesday morning. Regardless, if the front can not generate organized convection there will still be wind and snow. Snow levels are expected to drop Tuesday night as colder air filters in behind this wave.

The models show another low pressure making landfall along the West Coast and becoming an open wave as it approaches our area on Wednesday. This results in another round of scattered to widespread snow showers. Given the cooler air mass in place snow levels could reach some of the valleys and support accumulating snowfall. It appears that this second shortwave will have another fairly strong mid level jet. Therefore winds increase again on Wednesday, so that combined with the snow will result in travel impacts. Snowfall totals from both of these systems look to be around 10-20 inches in general for most of the mountains ranges above 8 kft. Localized amounts above 2 feet are possible. Most of the ski towns could see around 4-8 inches of snow with the two rounds. The main issue is that the air mass is cooler, but not arctic, so day time highs may reach or go above freezing for many valleys resulting in improved road conditions. Overnight and mornings may be the when we see the worst impacts at the lower elevations. There may be a lull at some point on Thursday before the third and final shortwave swings over the region. There is still uncertainty about the exact track and strength of this wave so details are not clear. As of now it is possible we could have another round of snow showers around Friday as this wave passes overhead.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1051 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions and broken high clouds prevail through the TAF period with generally light winds. Southwest winds aloft increase through the period with Low-Level Wind Sheer (LLWS) impacting mountain TAF sites after 00Z, especially KASE, KEGE and KTEX.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ001-002- 020>022. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ003-005-023. Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ004-009-010-012-013-017>019. UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Monday to 5 AM MST Thursday for UTZ023-028.