textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions are here to stay. Temperatures will begin to surge well above normal, approaching record values Monday through Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered critical fire weather conditions throughout next week.

- Pattern shift mid next week is expected to prompt stronger winds and a few showers along the high terrain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

HOTTER THAN NORMAL:

A broad ridge will move over the western CONUS beginning Sunday afternoon and will persist through Tuesday, which will bring a stark rise in temperatures to 15-25 degrees above normal. This will mean afternoon highs will push records for much of the region during the stretch. On Wednesday, the pattern will begin to shift slightly as a trough approaches from the west. Record temperatures are still possible Wednesday afternoon, but look for things to cool slightly Thursday and Friday in addition to a slight uptick in moisture. Afternoon highs will still sit around 10 degrees above normal during the late week period, but broken records will no longer be likely at this point. This slightly moister stretch could prompt a few showers over the high terrain too, but overall impacts look to be minimal at the moment.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 510 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Light and terrain driven winds will linger through 18z, then become northerly to northwesterly at around 10 knots. Some gusts of 15-20 knots will be possible during the afternoon. Winds will turn light and terrain driven once more after 03z this evening. Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Next week will be characterized by numerous days of isolated to scattered critical fire weather conditions across the CWA. Most fire zones still don't have critical fuels aside from zones 200 and 202 in northwestern Colorado, so barring any changes in fuel status, these will be the main areas of concern throughout the week. In these zones though, most, if not all days will be borderline in regards to the potential for fire weather highlights. This is thanks to lacking winds underneath the ridge early in the week, followed by increasing moisture late in the week. The approaching low which will spark this pattern shift is expected to arrive near Wednesday afternoon, leaving this day as the current favorite to meet red flag criteria. The timing of the low is not well agreed upon among deterministic models at the moment though, so stay updated over the coming days as the forecast evolves.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.