textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds and anomalously warm temperatures continue for the remainder of week into the weekend. Northern valleys will see gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range this afternoon with gusts exceeding 40 mph at times through the weekend.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will also lead to elevated fire weather concerns through the weekend.

- Snow chances increase over the northern and central mountains Saturday night.

- Anomalously warm temperatures around 20 degrees above normal are possible next week increasing the probability of accelerated snowmelt.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Models agree well with satellite imagery depicting the west- northwesterly, mostly zonal flow aloft to our north with the jet running along the Canadian Border, and high pressure off the SoCal/Baja Coast. There is little change in this pattern through the day, but a shortwave system descends out of the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest Friday night into Saturday morning undergoing frontogenesis as a high speed jetstreak digs the trough south pushing it into southern Idaho and northern Utah by Saturday evening.

Expect another warm, windy day Friday with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal, and generally westerly winds 15 to 25 mph gusting 25 to 40 mph north of I-70 and 10 to 15 mph gusting 15 to 25 mph in the lower elevations south of the interstate. Saturday will warm a few degrees and will see winds pick up about ten mph over Friday's winds with the trough approaching from the northwest. Will likely put out an advisory for the winds north of I-70 for Saturday afternoon, but am holding off as the forecast is currently barely meeting thresholds. We will see some showers develop over the northern mountains mostly due to orographics through Saturday afternoon, but convection will start to increase by evening as the nose of the jet pushes in over eastern Utah and Western Colorado.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Drastic changes will be arriving Saturday night into Sunday as a clipper-esque system rolls through the Rockies. As is typical with these type of storms more wind than precipitation is expected...though the northern and central mountains will pick up a quick shot of snow as much colder air rolls in. A strong surface pressure couplet...cold air advection and 45 to 55kt H700 winds aloft are sure to bring some stronger gusts down to the surface with the fropa and any nearby showers. So any wind products that might be on the board for Saturday are likely to linger well into the early morning hours. This cold front will drop temperatures some 15 to 25 degrees with highs on Sunday settling below normal. Gusty northerly winds will also make it feel more winter-like than the Spring we have been experiencing. Lingering cold advective snow showers will also continue across the northern and central mountains of Colorado. Amounts will generally be light but inflated snow-to- liquid ratios and continued strong winds are likely to lead to blowing and drifting snow and hazardous travel over the passes. Snow amounts continue to creep up with a general 2-5 inches in most areas and 5 to 10 over some of the higher peaks looks possible. Warm advection kicks on by Monday and full-blown late Spring temperatures arrive by the end of the forecast. There will likely be some light precipitation in the transition to the warmer regime Monday afternoon as the jet passes over the northern mountains...nothing of note as of yet. A large and anomalous ridge builds across western NOAM by mid- week and temperatures respond accordingly. Highs mid- week onward look to be reach 20 to 25 degrees above normal...which means 80s in the lower desert valleys and 60s to near 70 in the mountains. Nighttime lows continue to drop near to below freezing where are biggest snow pack resides so feel the probability of snowmelt runoff issues appears to be low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1117 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Westerly winds will prevail for most locations through the period, although some periods of more typical terrain driven winds will be possible through 15z. Speeds remain elevated, with many locations in excess of 10 knots, with gusts of 20-30 knots possible tomorrow afternoon. Scattered to broken high clouds will linger, along with some mid-level clouds along the northern and central Divide. Ceilings will remain above breakpoints, and VFR conditions will prevail.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.