textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions contract some Thursday due to lighter winds, but hot, dry, windy conditions remain anchored in place into the weekend.

- Red Flag Warnings continue for southwest CO Thursday and Fire Weather Watches have been issued for Friday for much of the West Slope.

- Temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above normal through the period.

- A chance for showers and thunderstorms emerges Saturday and Sunday that heightens risk for new fire starts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Low pressure lifting out onto the northern Plains continues to drag its trough across the CWA. A well mixed column is producing another round of strong surface winds across the region, with gusts already pushing 40 mph in spots. Wind advisories continue this afternoon along and north of I-70, with Red Flag Warnings in place as well. The morning sounding here at Grand Junction has shown some bending of the upper level winds to the northwest. As the low pushes eastward, this will infuse the air mass with a slightly cooler mix and send our afternoon highs down some for Thursday, a welcome respite from the hair dryer we've experienced the past couple of days. Surface winds remain lighter too on Thursday. The Fire Weather Watch was upgraded for portions of southwest CO, while the remaining zones remained under thresholds for wind speeds Thursday afternoon. Hot and dry conditions return Friday and Saturday though, with highs 10 degrees over average around the area. Broad high pressure across the Southwest will remain in place this weekend. However, a few pockets of extratropical moisture inch beneath the high into southern CO Saturday. Eyes turn to mountain showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Moisture develops northward on Sunday, bringing additional cloud cover and better chances for afternoon showers. Dry boundary layer conditions could make a tough time for measurable rain though. This will knock high temperatures down a few degrees on Sunday and Monday. Tuesday, high pressure builds back over the West, likely sending temperatures well above average heading towards the Solstice. This likely increases the chances we remain in a critical fire weather pattern heading into next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Main concern today will be gusty winds of 25 to 35kts at TAF sites with higher gusts possible elsewhere. Outside of the wind, VFR conditions will remain in place as mostly sunny skies remain predominant.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Lighter winds and cooler temperatures arrive Thursday, but dry well mixed conditions continue, prompting Red Flag Warnings for southwest CO. A broad cyclonic pattern across the northern CONUS nudges the high press southward. However, the southern tier of the CONUS remains under the influence of the high. Stronger upper level winds settle back across the West Slope Friday, while temperatures surge 10 degrees over average, leading to widespread Fire Weather Watches for the region. This is likely to continue into Saturday as well. A hint of moisture working into our southern mountains on Saturday and northward Sunday could promote shower and thunderstorm development. The antecedent dry conditions could prove useful for new fire starts should any lightning occur this weekend. Shower and thunderstorms chances for the mountains continue Monday. Relative humidity could see some improvement and temperatures trend down some with cloud cover, but critical fire weather is likely to continue for many locales. High pressure returns Tuesday and beyond and looks to send hot and dry conditions back into the driver seat, likely producing more critical fire weather.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202- 203-205-207-290>295. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-002-008. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ200>203-205-207-290>295. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ207- 293-295. UT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487- 490-491. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ024. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for UTZ487.