textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry and breezy conditions continue through Saturday with critical fire weather conditions where fuels are critical.

- A system will bring chances for precipitation this weekend, especially Sunday into Monday.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Monday and Tuesday with potential sub-freezing temperatures Monday night for some higher valley locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

WARM, DRY AND BREEZY:

Primarily zonal flow will be in place behind yesterday's system and weak cold front, with warm and dry conditions. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler mainly across the north with a few degrees cooler across central and southern areas. Not quite as hot but still 5 to 10 degrees or so above normal. Winds will pick up again on Friday as an 80 kt jet streak approaches from the northwest due to a low pressure system entering the PacNW, with the winds becoming southwest and the gradient tightening a bit. This will result in an uptick in critical fire weather conditions across portions of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado as well as the Gunnison Basin where a Red Flag Warning has been issued where fuels are critical. Some isolated showers and storms may develop over the San Juans but look to produce more gusty outflow winds and lightning than wetting rain due to the dry air mass in place.

THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY:

Winds are expected to increase on Saturday with gusts to 40 mph or greater as the PacNW trough deepens to our west, increasing the southwest gradient. Some moisture will advect ahead of this trough with isolated showers and storms Saturday afternoon, becoming scattered by evening. Conditions will still be dry, especially along and south of I-70, so critical fire weather conditions are possible given the gusty winds. Initially, storms will produce more gusty outflow winds and lightning than wetting rain but chances of wetting precipitation increase Sunday and Monday as the cold front and trough sweep through the area. Temperatures will drop to near normal Sunday and 10 to 20 degrees below normal by Monday. In fact, with this cold front and cooler air mass moving in behind it, there is some potential for mountain snow as well as sub-freezing temperatures Monday night for some valley locations.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK:

Northwest flow sets up behind this departing storm system Tuesday with high pressure building along the west coast, which will keep us in a cooler but drier pattern through Wednesday. We may see some continued orographic light showers over the northern Divide mountains as well. Temperatures stay below normal Tuesday but return to around 5 degrees above normal by late next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty winds are already being seen at most terminals, with gusts becoming more widespread into the afternoon. Most terminals will see gusts within the 20-25 kt range. Gusts will die down into the evening and winds will return to generally light and terrain driven. Skies will be mostly clear through the period with only a few passing high clouds expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Winds remain gusty along the west side of the Divide today resulting in a Red Flag Warning for COZ293, the Gunnison Basin. Elsewhere, a very dry airmass moves in (RH in the single digits to low teens), but winds won't be as strong. Watch out for localized critical fire weather conditions. Winds will increase across the north Friday ahead of an approaching disturbance where coverage of gusty winds and low relative humidity has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for NE Utah and NW Colorado Fire Zones where fuels are critical (UTZ486-487, COZ200-202-293). Conditions remain dry mainly along and south of I-70 on Saturday with winds increasing and becoming more widespread, prompting the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for UTZ490 and COZ290 and 292 where coverage and duration is best. Conditions are more borderline across the north in terms of RH. Humidity increases late Saturday into Sunday with better chances of widespread precipitation and wetting rain Sunday and Monday.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ200-202- 293. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ293. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for COZ290-292. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ486-487. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for UTZ490.