textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds are expected to continue today with gusts around 30-50 mph and upwards of 70 mph in the mountains. Similar gusty conditions are expected to redevelop Wednesday before sunrise, lasting through the day.

- Another rounds of moderate to heavy snow is expected on Wednesday during the day. Wind gusts will again range from 25-50 mph and upwards of 60 mph in the mountains.

- A final round of snow is possible Friday, with drier conditions expected this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1146 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Transient ridging over the west slope has cleared skies and left behind drier conditions, seen through a stark drop in PWAT's in the 18Z sounding. This ridge coincides with the passing of a dry slot between two atmospheric rivers extending from the Baja Peninsula through the Four Corners. The first atmospheric river is what prompted moderate snowfall across portions of the region over the past 24 hours, and the second is anticipated to reinvigorate showers region-wide tonight and through tomorrow. We're sitting at the far eastern edge of this AR though, and so moisture supply is looking to be lower than it was with the first AR. This is leading to uncertainty in the ensembles as well with the ECMWF trending wetter (PWAT's 125-175% of normal) than the GEFS (PWAT's 100-125% of normal). Those values aren't impressive by any means, but it's enough to support additional precipitation thanks to a coinciding combination of improving PVA ahead of the digging PacNW trough, the persistence of the upper-level jet stream, and the passage of another cold front late in the afternoon on Wednesday. As temperatures plummet, snow levels will fall as well, potentially below most valleys, meaning precipitation type is expected to be mostly, if not entirely snow across the region. Most valleys will still sit below 4" of accumulation by Thursday morning though. Meanwhile, mountain passes are expected to reach around 10-15" of additional accumulation and higher values above passes.

Winds are still expected to be gusty through the next 36 hours (and beyond) as well. Most valley zones are nearing or exceeding wind advisory criteria (45+ mph gusts) and could continue to do so through the afternoon. Mountain zones are expected to hit 50-70 mph gusts this afternoon too. Strong gusts should persist through the night, though they are currently expected to drop below advisory criteria until 5 AM, at which point hi-res model guidance is suggesting 45+ mph gusts could redevelop within valleys. HREF guidance is honing in on powerful gusts around sunrise within the Grand Valley tomorrow, though it's unlikely that these gusts will reach the same strength as they did last night. Confidence is lower in the potential for 45+ gusts along the US-40 corridor, and higher in gust potential around the Four Corners which sits underneath the jet. Given the track record of this system and model similarity compared to yesterday, we've opted to issue wind advisories for all valley zones from 5 AM to 5 PM tomorrow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Shortwave ridging will be in control of eastern Utah and western Colorado on Thursday, as one trough ejects into the Plains and another moves into the Pacific Northwest. As a result, weather will be briefly quieter, with only lingering light orographic snow showers expected. Much colder air will settle into the region behind the ejecting Plains shortwave, with temperatures expected to run 5- 10 degrees below normal.

The Pacific Northwest trough mentioned above is set to be our next weather-maker, potentially bringing another round of mountain snow and valley rain. General consensus is that the open wave will track over the Four Corners region. Ensemble guidance is showing PWATS around 40-60 percent of normal during this period, with values approaching normal closer to the Four Corners. AR moisture forecasts are also rather anemic, with weak AR moisture making it to, at best, the Four Corners. Snowfall totals have increased slightly with the highest amounts south of I-70, which is closer to the shortwave.

The trough slides east of the Divide over the weekend, with an amplified ridge expected to build in over the Intermountain West. This will bring a gradual warming and drying trend. Temperatures are expected to warm near to a few degrees above normal by early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 440 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Aviation problems will continue to center around the strong winds across the region, leading to LLWS at many of our terminals. Surface winds do abate after dark this evening, but winds aloft remain strong. Ceilings at mountain sites and intermittently at the low valleys will stick around MVFR and IFR breakpoints, as snow showers continue to work through the region tonight and Wednesday. This will also hamper visibility intermittently too. Snow will begin to taper Wednesday evening, but most terminals will close out this period under breakpoint conditions.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ001-002- 006>008-011-014-020>022. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for COZ001-002- 006>008-011-014-020>022. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ003-004- 009-010-012-013-017>019. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ005-023. UT...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ027. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for UTZ022-024- 027-029. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for UTZ023-025- 028.