textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Low relative humidities, showers, and thunderstorms could produce gusty winds above forecast values this afternoon, along with critical fire weather conditions for most of northwest Colorado.

- Unsettled weather continues Saturday into Tuesday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

- A cold front arrives Monday, bringing mountain snow and colder temperatures to start the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Critical Fire Weather

A trough of low pressure coming ashore in NORCAL is pushing strong southwesterly flow and a fetch of Pacific moisture into the Great Basin this afternoon. Dry air in the boundary layer will keep critical fire weather conditions in place for another afternoon across northwest Colorado, as surface winds ramp up around the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today, favoring the terrain, where sunshine can destabilize things a bit. Unfortunately, cloud cover and drier air are working against this process too. Temperatures will remain 15 to 20 degrees above normal for much of the region, as we push more warm air across the Four Corners.

Pattern Shift

Height falls deepen the trough out west Saturday, as a series of waves train down the West Coast, pinwheeling around the broad cyclonic flow anchored over the West. This will pump PWAT values up across the CWA. Another jet max works across, mixing down another round of strong surface winds Saturday afternoon, with southwesterly gusts 30 to 40 mph. Cloud cover will suppress highs a bit Saturday, along with shower activity. A few showers will finally make it down to valley floors thanks to additional moisture. Deterministic models turn the tap off briefly Sunday. I wouldn't bet on completely dry conditions, especially for the mountains, but shower coverage will be less widespread. Windy conditions will continue under another jet max blasting across the Four Corners.

Cooler and Wetter

The upper low finally ejects across the Great Basin Monday. Cooler temperatures arrive too, as cold air filters in behind this system. Snow levels will inch downward Monday and Tuesday with some light accumulations for the high country Monday night and early Tuesday. Travelers on mountain passes are encouraged to watch forecasts Monday night, as it looks like we could see some light accumulations on roads. Model spread on moisture remains rather polarized Monday and Tuesday. It's probably best to keep a guard up, as it is still shoulder season in the mountains. High temperatures behind the front on Tuesday will trend below average. Showers will continue behind the front into Wednesday, before we begin to dry out some. Spaghetti plots get pretty twisted late next week, with a few solutions keeping unsettled weather in place, versus calming down and warming up.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 440 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Mid and high level clouds are moving through with a few light light showers or virga falling out. VFR conditions are in place and this should not change over the next 24 hours. The main concern will be gusty winds near showers and storms later today which could bring gusts of 45 to 50 mph. General wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will also be possible at times away from the shower activity thru sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Gusty winds, low relative humidities and above average temperatures continue across the region today and Saturday. Red Flag Warnings remain in place for much of northwest Colorado into this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms on the mountains today could produce gusts above forecast values due to strong outflow winds. Increasing moisture will suppress critical fire weather Saturday and likely into Wednesday next week, as wetting rains return. Warmer and drier conditions could return localized critical fire weather conditions next Wednesday and beyond.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202- 203. UT...None.