textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions persist into the new work week.

- A frontal boundary drops south Monday afternoon, potentially with some light precipitation for our northern counties.

- Precipitation is expected to spread across the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Cooler, wetter conditions close out the week, with the mountains expected to see accumulating snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 247 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

High pressure remains arced across the region today. Temperatures remain stubbornly warm again, with plenty of sunshine and light winds. Highs this afternoon will push into the upper 60's for southeast Utah and into the mid 50's again for northwest Colorado and the Uinta Basin. Mountain valleys will trend well above freezing too. This trend will persist into Monday as well. A frontal boundary sets up along the jet max from NORCAL to the northern Plains on Monday. This boundary begins to settle southward, eroding the ridging across the region. This will introduce cloud cover across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado by Monday evening. Some stronger winds mix down as that jet max approaches our northern counties Monday afternoon. It looks like we could see some westerly gusts around 15-25 mph, favoring the Uintas, Yampa Basin, and the I- 70 corridor from Rifle, eastward. Non zero precipitation chances enter the picture too, with 20 to 30 percent chances for the Uintas and the Park Range/Elkheads Monday afternoon and evening. This is expected to introduce a pattern shift, discussed below.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 247 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

A new and complex pattern develops across the CONUS by Tuesday, as a number of different systems move through both the northern and southern streams. Here in eastern Utah and western Colorado, a cold front tries to dip into the area Tuesday, accompanied by some moderate AR moisture. However, the front is expected to stall somewhere near the US-40 corridor, and begin shifting northward again Tuesday evening as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of a deepening low off the West Coast. as such, impacts from this front will be limited, with low (<30%) confidence that we'll see any precipitation at all from it. Best chances of valley rain or mountain snow will be along and north of the US-40 corridor.

As the West Coast low deepens, a 110-120 knot southwesterly upper level jet overspreads much of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. In addition, another AR sets up over SoCal and pushes northeast through the LA Basin. This is an extremely favorable trajectory for this moisture to make it into the Four Corners region, and ensemble guidance is indicating PWAT values rising close to 200% of normal by Wednesday. Under this setup, valley rain and mountain snow are looking increasingly likely Wednesday and Thursday. Model agreement still isn't fantastic, with major discrepancies over timing and coverage of activity. And unfortunately, model agreement remains poor through the remainder of the long-term period. The biggest source of disagreement comes from the deterministic GFS and the GEFS, which favors a much more progressive pattern compared to other model guidance. The ECMWF and its ensemble, the CMC, the UKMET, all are favoring a slower evolution of the pattern. Run-to-run consistency has been poor as well, limiting confidence even more. So while confidence on cooler and more unsettled pattern remains high (>70%), and confidence on chances of widespread precipitation is increasing (40-60%), the details of where and when and how much remain fuzzy.

As we move into this pattern change, temperatures do cool off a bit. We start the period still in the 15-20 degrees above normal range. Blended guidance cools thing down steadily, near to around 5 degrees above normal temperatures by the weekend. There are hints of an even cooler and wetter pattern developing early the following week, as ensemble and deterministic guidance all display a deep, cold trough dropping into the Western CONUS. The Climate Prediction Center's 8- 10 and 10-14 day outlooks are also showing increasing probabilities of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation extending into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. So stay tuned, things are finally getting interesting.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 924 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Expect VFR conditions with a few high clouds and generally light terrain driven winds through the TAF period. The exceptions will be a few westerly gusts 15-20 kts between 18Z and 00Z.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.