textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts of 45-55 mph are expected Wednesday afternoon ahead of the next storm system. Wind Advisories are in effect, and in areas where fuels are critical, Red Flag Warnings have been issued.

- Light showers are possible over the Uintas and Park Range Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Virga showers could exacerbate wind concerns.

- Cooler and unsettled weather returns for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

WINDY WEDNESDAY:

A strong and cold trough is expected to track across the Great Basin tonight, approaching eastern Utah and western Colorado by daybreak. There isn't expected to be much moisture with this system, at least at the surface, meaning any showers that develop will be isolated and more likely to produce gusty winds than wetting rain. What this system will have plenty of is wind. The surface pressure gradient will tighten up substantially ahead of the approaching cold front, and mixing will tap into the 100-110 knot jet aloft. As a result, widespread gusts of 45-55 mph are expected, with some higher winds possible across the higher elevations. Wind Advisories remain in effect for all valley zones in eastern Utah and western Colorado. In addition, dry surface conditions combined with the high winds will result in elevated fire weather concerns across the region, though only portions of northwest Colorado have critical fuels.

The cold front sweeps through tomorrow afternoon and evening, ushering in cooler air. Temperatures tomorrow night into Thursday will run near-normal for late April. Light rain and snow showers will be possible across the Park Range and eastern Uintas through Thursday, as post-frontal northwesterly flow takes advantage of favorable orographics.

COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES:

Winds remain breezy through the week and into the weekend, as a 75- 85 knot jet remains in place over the Four Corners region. Daytime mixing will bring down afternoon wind gusts of 25-35 mph, in some locations up to 40 mph. Modest warm air advection Friday and Saturday will allow temperatures to rebound to around 5 degrees above normal. However, another cool and potent trough is expected to set up Sunday into early next week. Current forecast PWATs with this system are in the 150-200% of normal range, meaning there is a chance of wetting valley rain and accumulating mountain snow. However, confidence in this remains low (<40%). Regardless of the chances of precipitation, there is a high likelihood (>80%) that temperatures will once again drop below normal for the time of year. There is also the potential for freeze concerns across the lower elevation valleys early next week. Wild spring weather continues apace.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Strong south/southwest winds will be the main concern over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase after 12z, peaking in the afternoon, with gusts of 30-40 knots expected. Terminals along and north of I-70 are favored to see the strongest winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1049 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

On Wednesday afternoon, many locations below 7,000 feet will experience relative humidities below 15% and wind gusts 45-55 mph. However, fuels are only critical in northwestern Colorado for the moment. In these locations, relative humidity values are borderline for critical fire weather conditions, at 13-18%. Regardless, due to the anticipated strong gusts, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Colorado zones 200 and 202. There is also potential for virga showers to develop over adjacent higher terrain, which could produce strong and erratic wind gusts.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002- 006>008-011-020>022. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200- 202. UT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ022-024- 027-029.