textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, strong wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected for the northern and central valleys with gusts exceeding 70 mph for the northern mountains as a strong cold front pushes through.

- Warm, dry and windy conditions will continue through Saturday, also leading to elevated fire weather concerns.

- A strong cold front will bring a rapid drop in temperatures, strong winds and mountain snow favoring the northern and central Colorado mountains Saturday night through Sunday morning. Difficult travel is expected in the mountains due to snow and blowing snow.

- Anomalously warm temperatures around 20 degrees above normal are possible next week following this brief cold snap, increasing the probability of accelerated snowmelt.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1213 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The 150 kt jet lifts a bit further north today resulting in a bit less wind than yesterday, but it will still remain breezy with sufficient mixing across the area. Temperatures will also take a turn upward by about 2 to 5 degrees from yesterday's highs, ending up between 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Dry conditions remain through Saturday afternoon. The big concern is Saturday ahead of and behind a strong cold front expected to move through Saturday night. A very strong 170 kt jet streak will move into the Pacific Northwest Saturday morning, causing the polar jet to dip further south across the northern Rockies into our CWA Saturday night as a strong cold front pushes through. We will see strong winds Saturday afternoon, continuing through Saturday night as this cold front pushes through behind it with deep mixing. This will lead to very warm temperatures Saturday afternoon with low to mid 70s for many central and southern valleys in eastern Utah and west-central Colorado. The NBM probabilities of gusts exceeding 45 mph is near 99 percent for the valleys of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado with close to 80 percent for the Rifle to Vail corridor and Gunnison Basin. In this particular pattern, the east-central Utah and west-central Colorado valleys tend to be favored as well even though probabilities are a bit lower. Looking at high wind potential, the eastern Uinta Mountains have an 80 percent probability of exceeding 75 mph...however, the probabilities are much lower of meeting high wind criteria for our northern valleys. Decided to issue a High Wind Warning for the eastern Uinta Mountains and Wind Advisories for our northern and central valleys for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning to capture pre and post frontal winds as it looks to continue blowing all night long.

This cold front Saturday night also is projected to cause a rapid drop in temperatures as highs on Sunday are forecast to be around 20 to 25 degrees colder than Saturday. H7 temps drop well into the dendritic growth zone Saturday night following this cold front, so we are expecting snow for the northern and central Colorado mountains along the Divide. Decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for these northern and central CO mountains for elevations above 9000 feet from 6 pm MDT Saturday through 9 am MDT Sunday to capture the combination of snow and blowing snow, likely to result in difficult travel conditions over Rabbit Ears and Vail Passes. Sunday will be much colder with highs around 10 degrees below normal on average, with highs as much as 20 degrees below normal in the northern mountains. Below freezing temperatures are looking likely Sunday night following this cold snap before the warm up commences, so if you have any sensitive plants given the recent warm temperatures we've seen...might be good to bring them in or cover.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Warm advection kicks on by Monday and full-blown late-Spring temperatures arrive by the end of the week. There will likely be some light precipitation in the transition to this warmer regime Monday afternoon as the jet passes over the northern mountains...nothing of note as of yet.

A large and anomalous ridge builds across western North America by mid-week and temperatures respond accordingly. Highs mid- week onward look to reach 20 to 25 degrees above normal...which means 80s in the lower desert valleys and 60s to near 70 in the mountains. If these model trends hold, record high temperatures are likely across much of the western CONUS including eastern Utah and western Colorado. Nighttime lows continue to drop near to below freezing where our biggest snow pack resides so the probability of snowmelt runoff issues appears to be low, but something to keep an eye on as the forecast evolves.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 532 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions are in place with a few late afternoon gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range. These should drop off by sunset but winds increase aloft ahead of the next approaching storm system. These winds create areas of LLWS overnight which mix down to the surface as heating commences through the morning. Gusts of 35 to 50 kts will be common across the lower elevations by mid afternoon with 55kts or greater across the high country. These winds will create mechanical turbulence over the hills and could create area of blowing dust. Low confidence in visibility being impacted so VFR prevails over the next 24 hours.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ001- 002-006>008-011-014. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ004-010. UT...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ024- 027. High Wind Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for UTZ023.