textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm conditions persist today and tomorrow.

- A frontal boundary drops south Monday afternoon, potentially with some light precipitation for our northern counties.

- Precipitation is likely to spread across the region through the end of the work week with Wednesday expected to be the most active.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

A shortwave to our east has left much of Colorado underneath northerly to northwesterly flow this afternoon, which is pulling down some moisture from the north. PWAT's are near- normal as a result. This is generating some dense mid-to-high level cloud cover across northern Colorado. Regardless, things are quiet on the west slope for the next 12-24 hours as high pressure dominates the region. High temperatures are expected to reach 10-20 degrees above normal today and tomorrow with northwestern Colorado and northeastern Utah valleys and basin being the most anomalous.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

The models continue to show that a shortwave trough moving over the Northern Rockies will push a front and narrow plume of moisture into our forecast area late Monday and early Tuesday. This front looks to stall north of I-70 and lift back northward shortly after that. For now this may result in snow showers for the Unitas and Colorado northern mountains. The snowfall amounts are not impressive from this round of moisture. On Tuesday a stronger low pressure system makes landfall on the West Coast allowing for southwest flow aloft and another round of moisture (upwards of 200% of normal). Models agree that system weakens into an open wave as it tracks over the Great Basin. The best chances (above 70%) for precipitation across our area look to be on Wednesday especially in the mountains. The forcing is not particularly strong, but pieces of energy could break away from the main low and enhance the lift at times. A majority of the showers may be driven from orographics and instability, which the models show building ahead of the trough. This system is not arctic in nature therefore snow levels look to stay relatively high, generally above 6-7 kft. Eventually the trough progresses eastward on Thursday and Friday therefore precipitation chances linger. Where they linger is somewhat uncertain at this point. As of now that shortwave energy passes south of us so the chances will be highest closer to that wave. As the week progresses, temperatures do cool off a bit. We start the period still in the 15-20 degrees above normal range. Blended guidance cools thing down steadily, near to around 5 degrees above normal temperatures by the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 943 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Expect VFR conditions with increasing high clouds from the northwest through the TAF period. Mid level clouds move into the northern areas after 00Z. Look for up-valley winds gusting to 20kts between 18Z and 00Z at KASE, KEGE, KTEX and KDRO.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.