textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Valley rain and mountain snow will continue through tonight, with snow favoring the central and northern Colorado mountains. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect.

- Cool temperatures can be expected over the next several days with sub freezing nighttime temperatures forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas on Thursday night. A Freeze Watch is in effect Thursday night through Friday morning.

- Drier weather is expected Thursday through most of the weekend, with a gradual warming trend to near-normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1027 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUE:

Current satellite imagery indicates that the center of the low pressure that has brought widespread mountain snow and valley rain is currently located over the Central Divide mountains, continuing to track northeastward. Moisture wrapping around the backside of this low is keeping valley rain and higher elevation snow showers going across much of central- and north-western Colorado this evening. This has resulted in sloppy road conditions over mountain passes, so be cautious and prepared for winter driving if out travelling tonight. The low is expected to reach the eastern Colorado Plains by daybreak Thursday, with the plume of wrap-around moisture finally moving east of the Divide. An additional 1-3 inches of snow will be possible across the central and northern Divide ranges, with a trace to an inch for mainly the northern San Juans. Some higher snow amounts are possible along the Uncompahgre River Gorge south of Ouray, as this area tends to fare better than guidance indicates under these types of northerly flow, wrap-around moisture events. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for elevations above 9500 feet in the central and northern Divide mountains through 6AM Thursday morning.

DRYING OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND:

As the low tracks east into the plains, energy in the base of the parent trough splits off and begins to retrograde into Southern California. Between these two features, high pressure noses in from the west, bringing drier, quieter weather to eastern Utah and western Colorado. By Friday, the retrograded area of low pressure remains stationary across SoCal, with high pressure to the north, creating a Rex Block for the West, while deep troughing dominates the eastern CONUS. This will keep conditions stagnant for several days, with the next chance for active weather across eastern Utah and western Colorado not expected until early to mid-next week. Models remain in poor agreement over most details regarding this next system, so stay tuned. In the meantime, clear skies and a much drier airmass are expected for the Western Slope. Temperatures will start out 5-10 degrees below normal, but gradually warm to near normal by the weekend. Clearing skies and this much colder airmass in place will promote effective radiational cooling Thursday night into Friday morning, especially across northwest Colorado and into some of the higher elevation valleys in the central-western and southwestern Colorado. A Freeze Watch is in effect for these areas from late Thursday night through late Friday morning. Widespread temperatures of 25-30F are expected, with values dropping as low as 20F in favored spots. If you have sensitive vegetation or outdoor plumbing, now is a good time to take the necessary precautions to protect them.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Showers will continue this morning with low ceilings and visibility. Snow is occurring at higher elevation sites including KASE, KEGE, KTEX, and KHDN. Low stratus and fog may develop especially in the mountain valleys but confidence in exact timing and location is low. Expect below ILS breakpoints at mountain TAF sites through the evening hours with MVRF/IFR possible in heavier showers. Conditions will begin to improve later this morning into the afternoon.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ001-002-005-008-023. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for COZ004-009- 010-012-013. UT...None.