textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday and continue at least through Wednesday due to low humidity and gusty winds.

- High-end fire weather conditions are likely for portions of the region on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 956 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

STAGNANT HOT, DRY, AND WINDY PATTERN

Hot, dry, and windy conditions settle in across the region on Saturday as an approaching trough from the PacNW stalls out, trapping our CWA under dry southwesterly flow. Afternoon highs will sit around 5-10 degrees above normal until the low budges. This places valley highs in the 90's, mountain valleys in the upper 80's to lower 90's, and mountain passes in the 60's and 70's. These hot temperatures pair with a rapidly tightening pressure gradient, bringing strong gusts region-wide. From Saturday through Monday, gusts are expected to be around 25-35 mph for the majority of the region with some gusts upwards of 40 mph. As the trough dips further southwards towards us on Tuesday and Wednesday, gusts will jump up even further. Most locations will see 35-40 mph gusts with many areas expected to hit 50 mph. Beyond Wednesday, the low begins to break down, but ensembles maintain dry flow over us, meaning there is little potential for a notable pattern shift later next week aside from maybe some slightly cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 539 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

This morning winds are generally light, although a few sites have stronger terrain driven winds ongoing. By this afternoon all sites are expected to have gusty winds, up to 20-30 kts. The strongest gusts are forecast at KCNY. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 956 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Our CWA is looking at a long stretch of critical fire weather beginning Saturday and likely persisting at least through Thursday. This is being prompted by strong winds and dry surface conditions underneath stagnant southwesterly flow. From Saturday through Monday, gusts will generally be 25-35 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible and relative humidities will be near or in the single digits. With this, most fire zones that have critical fuels have been placed under Red Flag Warnings or Fire Weather Watches. The more concerning fire weather day comes on Tuesday though. A tightening pressure gradient across the CWA prompts an increase in winds without any relief to relative humidity. The majority of the region will see gusts of at least 35 mph. However, we are keeping a close eye on the lower Yampa River Basin, Uinta Basin, Utah Grand Flat, and Four Corners region where winds are forecasted to reach as high as 50 mph coinciding with the maintained single digit relative humidities. Over multiple forecast runs, these winds have been relatively consistent, leading to increasing confidence in the high-end nature of Tuesday's fire weather potential. Red Flag conditions should persist for portions of the region on Wednesday and likely Thursday as well.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for COZ200-202- 203-205-207-290>293. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-490-491. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ486-487- 490-491. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for UTZ486-487-490-491.