textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions dominate the forecast through early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 129 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

The atmosphere has dried out considerably as the 18Z sounding PWAT has dropped to near-normal once again. Our northeastern regions near the Park Range and Elkheads are still receiving a steady dose of more anomalous moisture from the Pacific as the western CONUS trough has hardly budged. This is resulting in little more than cloudy skies though. Temperatures are well above normal still as well. We saw some patchy fog develop overnight last night, particularly in the Upper Gunnison River Valley, and patchy fog could again develop tonight. With drier conditions settling in though, relative humidities are expected to be much less supportive for fog tonight than last night, so should any develop, look for it to be much more localized and less impactful.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 129 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Ridging remains the dominant feature through almost the entire long term period. The ridge axis that has setup along the West Coast will be just our west on Saturday and will be overhead Sunday. A weak, dry shortwave will then move over the area through the day Monday. This wave will bring some increased clouds to the region but no precipitation. Models have been very consistent with this dry forecast. An AR event will be taking place across the PacNW and by Monday moisture from the event will finally make it to Idaho and western Montana. Moving forward in time, the jet stream will setup across those same areas and then move northward. This northward shift will keep most of the moisture to our north as well though we might see an occasional shower along the CO/WY border. Flow through most of the period will be west through southwesterly and keep high temperatures well above climatological norms, 10 to 15 degrees. This trend looks to continue past Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 944 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

The Gunnison TAF will be the outlier of this forecast with a layer of ground fog drifting across the airfield at times. MVFR to LIFR conditions will be most likely if it plays out similar to last night with temporary VFR through mid morning before things clear. Otherwise light winds and VFR under passing high clouds will dominate the forecast for the remaining TAF sites.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.