textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions continue Wednesday with near record highs again.

- Critical fire weather conditions develop Wednesday afternoon with winds gusting to near 40 mph and relative humidities around 10 percent.

- Isolated dry thunderstorms could develop on the terrain of southwest Colorado Wednesday. Showers could produce gusty outflow winds as well.

- Strong winds develop again Saturday ahead of another system moving across the West that will bring cooler temperatures by next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1025 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

The hot and dry pattern continues Wednesday as expected, with near record highs expected across the region. Southwesterly winds will ramp up significantly tomorrow gusting 25-35 mph with a few stronger gusts in favorable locales. Low relative humidities will continue, producing critical fire weather conditions. RH values recover Wednesday evening as the weak front works through the area overnight. This will also mellow out highs on Thursday a bit, yet temperatures will still remain above normal heading into the weekend. A weak surge of moisture will lend a hand to some afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms, favoring the southern mountains Wednesday.

Broad zonal flow sets up across the region on Thursday and Friday. This will produce some additional gusty winds against the Divide both days. Some additional moisture works through, but for now, this looks to just produce some scattered clouds and maybe an isolated shower or two on the terrain. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of a trough digging into the Great Basin on Saturday will likely produce another day of widespread critical fire weather conditions. This frontal boundary will dip into the region later Sunday, producing precipitation chances for our northern counties. Temperatures are expected to moderate too, by early next week given the cooler air with this system. Below normal to normal temperatures are in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Guidance has freezing temperatures returning to northwest Colorado Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 520 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Clouds will increase throughout the day, with lowering ceilings after 00z this evening. Ceilings will remain above breakpoints and VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will follow typical terrain driven patterns through 18z, then becoming southwesterly with gusts of 20-30 knots expected. Some light showers or thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain, with main threats expected to be gusty and erratic winds and lightning. Winds will weaken after 03z, turning to follow terrain driven patterns once more.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1025 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Red Flag Warnings remain in place Wednesday afternoon thanks to gusty winds and low relative humidities ahead of a weak disturbance pushing across the West. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible for southwest Colorado, where a few showers are expected to produce lightning. Showers could produce some gusty outflow winds due to the extremely dry surface conditions across the region. Winds remain gusty behind this disturbance on Thursday on the west side of the Divide. A Red Flag Warning was issued for COZ293 Thursday afternoon to account for this, along with recent fuels updates.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-290-292. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ293. UT...None.