textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild, dry conditions highlight the forecast through the week with temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

- Isolated light terrain-based showers across the San Juans are possible daily with Tuesday having the greatest chance for rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1026 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

WARM AND DRY WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS THROUGH TOMORROW:

High pressure is centered over the Four Corners area and will remain centered there for the next 24 hours or so. Tomorrow the high pressure will break down as a shortwave trough propagates across the Intermountain West, moving across our area on Tuesday. Generally warm and dry conditions are expected today and tomorrow while high pressure remains aloft. High temperatures will continue to be 5 to 15 degrees above normal with the most anomalous temperatures occurring in the northern half of the CWA. Lingering moisture circulating within the area of high pressure will allow for isolated afternoon convection over the high terrain, primarily over the San Juans.

PATTERN CHANGE ON TUESDAY:

On Tuesday a shortwave trough will move across our area, providing support for increased precipitation chances, mostly over the higher terrain. However, forcing and moisture still do not look substantial enough to support significant rainfall. Above normal high temperatures and afternoon mountain thunderstorms are forecast each day though the end of the workweek.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1016 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions will remain in place for the next 24 hours and beyond with generally light winds expected. A very isolated shower may occur over the San Juans this afternoon but do not anticipate any concerns at KTEX.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.