textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions highlight the forecast through mid week with the potential for record high temperatures today and tomorrow.

- Localized critical fire weather conditions are possible each afternoon this week. Those conditions become most widespread tomorrow and Saturday.

- Showers and a few storms capable of strong gusty winds are possible during tomorrow afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Hot, dry, and windy weather will continue through the week. The axis of a broad upper level ridge is forecast to cross over our area tonight. This ridging supports daytime high temperatures 20 degrees above normal today and tomorrow. There is potential to tie or break the high temperature record at the Grand Junction Regional Airport today, which is 92 degrees and was set in 1960.

High pressure will keep afternoon wind gusts on the calmer side today. So, despite single digit relative humidity values this afternoon, critical fire weather conditions are very localized thanks to the below threshold winds. Fire weather concerns are much greater tomorrow as dry conditions persist and wind gusts increase due to a passing shortwave trough and the associated stronger pressure gradient. Thus, Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for some fire weather zones in western Colorado tomorrow. Most of the areas within the Red Flag Warnings also have high probabilities of exceeding the 90th percentile of the Hot-Dry-Windy Index tomorrow. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening over the higher terrain due to a quick moving swath of moisture advecting across the region. Although, many of the showers and thunderstorms may result in virga due to dry surface conditions.

Ridging propagates eastward and zonal flow moves over our CWA Thursday through Saturday. In this pattern highs will drop, but only from 20 degrees above normal to around 10 degrees above normal. Dry conditions and gusty winds each afternoon will allow for at least localized critical fire weather conditions each day. However, tomorrow and Saturday look to be the most concerning days in terms of fire weather, primarily due to more widespread coverage of strong wind gusts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Localized critical fire weather conditions continue each afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions will be the most widespread tomorrow and Saturday due to increased coverage of strong wind gusts. Tomorrow gusts up to 30 to 40 mph are forecast in some areas. Moisture quickly moving through the area will increase chances of isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Strong wind gusts are possible around any showers or thunderstorms that develop.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with light, terrain-driven winds. Periodic gusts up to 20-25 knots are possible this afternoon.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200- 202-290-292. UT...None.