textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions will remain mostly south of the Colorado River Friday.

- Hot and dry conditions will continue for Independence Day and beyond.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms could return Sunday afternoon then increase in coverage next week. New fire starts remain a concern due to the dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Hot and dry conditions will dig their heels in for the long haul over the coming days. Critical fire weather conditions will continue to contract thanks to lighter winds. Red Flag Warnings will continue for much of southwest CO Friday afternoon. The stronger wind speeds will favor the terrain in the well mixed afternoon hours. The numerous active wildfires will catch these winds, increasing the volume of smoke available for downstream transport. Heavier smoke will have some diminishing effect on afternoon winds too, downstream of the fires.

A week of critical fire weather conditions appears to wind down with a pattern shift Saturday and Sunday. Cyclonic flow will phase out as broad high pressure builds back across the south of the CONUS. This will turn our attention to the return of extra tropical moisture. Models are hinting at a weak shot hitting southern CO Sunday afternoon. The main forecast concern will be how long it takes to saturate this hot and dry air mass. Unfortunately, upper level moisture could produce dry thunderstorms well before we saturate the lower levels. Given the numerous lightning starts we've seen thus far this season, that's concerning. Persistent shots of this moisture could chip away at the dry lower levels each afternoon. Where we transition from fire start to flash flooding risk(or if at all) remains the core question in the long term forecast. These scenarios all come with their own pitfalls. Please keep abreast of your local forecast this week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 530 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Southwesterly gusts of 15-25 kts are expected to persist for most terminals for the next 1-2 hours before weakening into generally light and terrain-driven winds. Tomorrow afternoon, similar gusts return. Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibility at some locations throughout the next 24 hours. The most likely terminals to be impacted are MTJ and GUC where vis may fall to MVFR, though vis reduced to 5 or 6SM could still occur at other terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Wind speeds continue to contract Friday. This will push critical fire weather conditions into a more localized posture. Red Flag Warnings will continue for much of southwest CO, as favorable mixing conditions will work in concert with low relative humidity, especially favoring the terrain, and coincidentally, the areas with active wildfire. Lighter winds Saturday and beyond will suppress critical fire weather, despite the hot and dry conditions digging in further. Afternoon highs will cross into the triple digits for the lower deserts and the mountains will return above normal through much of next week. Models are selling some weak moisture working under the high later Sunday and beyond. This will turn attention to isolated thunderstorms and their potential to ignite new fire starts. This remains a vague threat, but given the antecedent hot and dry conditions, the margin of risk remains high. The weak moisture signature keeps wetting rains on the unlikely side for the time being.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ205-207- 290>294. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ207- 290>294. UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ491.