textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued warm with scattered mountain showers through end of week.

- An approaching storm will deliver more widespread showers Saturday and beyond.

- A cold front arrives Monday, bringing mountain snow and colder temperatures to start the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Models are in good agreement with satellite imagery with a vertically stacked cutoff low spinning off the coast of Northern California and the ridge axis to our west slowly shifting to the east. Mostly clear skies today is enough to heat the lower atmosphere for light orographic showers and virga to develop over the mountains this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms mainly north of I-70. Expect only a trace to maybe a few hundredth inch precip over the northern mountains and along the Divide with the primary threats being gusty down bursts and isolated lightning. Under the influence of the ridge, temperatures today and tomorrow will run about 15 degrees above normal. Look for the ridge axis to move out onto the Front Range overnight as the cutoff low approaches the Western Coastline as it fills, resulting in a tighter pressure gradient and stronger southwesterly flow aloft across the region by morning. With forecast winds tomorrow gusting 20-30 mph and the dry conditions in western most areas of Colorado along the Utah border, issued a Fire Weather Watch from the Wyoming Border to the Four Corners from noon to 8 PM. Only went with the watch due to uncertainties in the marginal winds. Stay tuned on this with the next forecast package for possible upgrade to Red Flag Warning with increased confidence in the winds. Under the southwesterly flow, this system will pull increased moisture up from the south to squelch the fire weather concerns Saturday.

UPCOMING PATTERN SHIFT:

Another stronger low pressure system descends out of the Gulf of Alaska tomorrow into Saturday to eject the filling cutoff low inland to the northeast as a weak openwave. This will push a cool front through the region early Saturday cooling temperatures about ten degrees Saturday, and will bring widely scattered to wide spread rain and showers to the region through the afternoon and evening. Though much of the region will see some rain, accumulations remain light with only a trace to a few hundredth inch likely over most areas to a few tenth inch possible in the southern and central mountains. With the warm conditions, only the higher elevations above 10,000 ft will see snow, and only a few inches at that. The second stronger low pressure system has better jet support with it, and moves inland Sunday becoming an openwave trough as it tracks east across the region by Tuesday. Associated with this system is a cold front that will drop temperatures another ten degrees through the first half of the week as it moves through. With the stronger dynamics and colder air aloft, look for scattered to widespread shower across the region favoring the higher terrain with isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the mountains. Though it's too early to say with any confidence, this system next week could produce anywhere from a half inch to an inch of precip on the southwestern faces of rising terrain over a 48 hour period, which would be a great help for the dry conditions across the region. Stay tuned on this as we go into the weekend and keep your fingers crossed.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. High to mid level clouds become more widespread into the afternoon hours. Showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly over the mountains and northern valleys this afternoon. Gusty winds (20-25 kts) are expected into the afternoon hours, with higher gusts being seen where showers and thunderstorms are present.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Dry conditions across Western Colorado along the Utah border and stronger southwest winds forecast tomorrow raised fire weather concerns in these areas. Held off on a warning due to uncertainty in winds and fuel conditions, but issued a Fire Weather Watch for Fire Weather Zones 200, 202, 203, 207, 290 and 292 in Western Colorado from noon to 8 PM. Look for updates on this by tomorrow morning.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292. UT...None.