textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue today, with a localized flash flooding risk.

- Gusty winds return Wednesday and Thursday, with afternoon gusts to around 25 to 35 mph for much of the region.

- A chance for additional monsoonal moisture arrives for the Labor Day weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY:

Thunderstorms have been ongoing through the morning and early afternoon today, and will continue while moisture lingers across the region and a jet streak aloft provides lift. This morning's 300mb objectively analyzed map from the Storm Prediction Center shows this jet streak stretching from southern California through eastern Utah, with divergence aloft aligned with the southern side of the jet streak. Guidance shows this jet streak moving across our CWA through the day as a trough pushes into the West. This morning's 18Z sounding from GJT shows that precipitable water remains elevated, with today's value exceeding the 90th percentile. Given the upper-level support and moisture, showers and storms will persist through the evening, with coverage becoming isolated after sunset. The primary concern with this activity is heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding in localized areas, especially around newer burn scars and areas of susceptible terrain. Small hail and gusty outflow winds are also possible.

GUSTY AND DRIER THROUGH FRIDAY:

Afternoon wind gusts will be stronger today through Friday, with the strongest forecast gusts being around 25 to 35 mph. This is due to an increased pressure gradient and periods of stronger winds aloft as the trough moves deeper into the West. However, one caveat to consider is that if cloud cover exceeds what is forecast the magnitude of gusts could be weaker.

Drier air moves in tonight which will keep precipitation chances pretty low through the rest of the workweek. However, some isolated afternoon convection is possible over the higher terrain tomorrow and Friday.

RETURN OF MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND:

Guidance continues to favor a moisture push this weekend, with the most anomalous moisture moving in on Sunday. How this forecast develops is largely dependent on the tropical storm activity in the Pacific, but models have consistently shown this moisture transport between runs. Increased moisture could allow for more widespread precipitation, so be sure to stay tuned to the forecast for this weekend as it develops.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Showers and storms continue this evening, especially along and north of I-70. Isolated storms could result in brief visibility reductions and gusty outflow winds at terminals through 06z. VFR conditions are forecast through the remainder of the TAF period with light, terrain- driven winds and afternoon gusts around 20 knots.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.