textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry, windy conditions will produce pockets of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday, favoring southwest CO. Critical Fire weather conditions will be a concern Thursday into the weekend.

- Temperatures continue to climb this week, warming to ten degrees above normal by the weekend.

- We will see increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms over the higher terrain through Wednesday, especially over the San Juans, with the potential for continued convection through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1047 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Models are in good agreement with satellite imagery placing the deep cold low along the Montana-Saskatchewan Border, ridging over eastern Texas and a low developing off the Southern California Coast. Over the next 24 hours, the east Texas ridge will develop into a high pressure circulation opening the door for Gulf moisture to push north through New Mexico into southern and eastern Colorado. Models have the low off the West Coast slide south along Baja to support the moist flow. The bulk of this moisture will stay to the east along the Front Range as it has been for the last few days, but Wednesday through the end of the week, we will see increased chances for showers and thunderstorms in the San Juan Mountains. Temperatures will run about seven degrees above normal across eastern Utah and Western Colorado through mid week, warming more to the ten degrees above normal mark by Friday. Though the region will remain on the dry side, there will continue to be enough mid-level moisture to support a few afternoon showers with an isolated thunderstorm on the higher terrain across the region similar to the last couple days. The exception will be the San Juans where storms may become scattered to numerous Wednesday. Because the moisture isn't deep, lightning and gusty outflows will be the primary threats from these storms with only light accumulations likely. Beyond Wednesday, the weather pattern across the Southwest over to Texas and up into Colorado has a weak flow aloft with subtle high and low pressure centers that produce wide variability the possible weather outcomes ranging from continued increased showers and thunderstorms across the south with more moisture pushing farther north to the moisture from the south being shut off and showers diminishing as dry southwest air pushing into the region by Friday. Current guidance if favoring the latter, but there are about equal chances either way.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 539 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Mid and high level cloud coverage will continue to increase today. Wind gusts up to around 15 to 20 kts are expected this afternoon at most sites. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain during the afternoon, potentially producing strong wind gusts and lightning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.