textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front arrives Monday morning, setting up for multiple days of near or below-normal temperatures.

- Valley rain and mountain snow is expected beginning Monday and lasting for the majority of the week.

- Travel over the mountain passes could be difficult on Tuesday due to slippery and slushy roads.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1053 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

MONDAY-TUESDAY SYSTEM:

Our next system has moved into Northern California this evening, with strong, moist southwesterly flow pushing into eastern Utah and western Colorado. This will keep winds elevated over the next 24-48 hours, as well as advect increasing upper level moisture. Forecast PWATS of 100-150% of normal are expected by mid-day tomorrow, increasing to 150-200% of normal by Tuesday morning. A cold front is expected to reach the region tomorrow, though it looks to stall as the energy in the parent trough splits into a northern-stream trough and southern-stream closed low. This will keep much of the region under pre-frontal southwesterly flow, but notably also keep the surface pressure gradient weaker than initially anticipated. So while winds will be breezy, with gusts up to 35 mph, Wind Advisories appear unneeded.

The southern-stream low becomes mobile once more tomorrow night into Tuesday, gradually weakening as it lifts northeast through the area during the day on Tuesday. The surface cold front will push through ahead of the main low, ushering in a much colder airmass. Temperatures will run 5-15 degrees below normal, and snow levels look to lower to 7000-8000 feet. This means accumulating snow at and above pass level, with valley rain showers below. The big question remains how much snow will accumulate, and how impactful it will be. The best forcing moves through during the day Tuesday, meaning that any accumulating snow will be fighting against the high spring sun- angle and the warm surface temperatures. There also remains uncertainties in snow-ratios and QPF. As a result, have opted not to issue any advisories with this package. But if travelling over the mountains on Tuesday, be prepared for sloppy driving conditions.

COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK:

Wednesday and Thursday look to bring a brief break from the wind and the cooler temperatures, as transient ridging passes through. Temperatures rebound to near or around 5 degrees above normal. However, another system will already be moving into the Pacific Northwest. Model guidance remains bullish on this system bringing another substantial cool-down late week, with blended guidance dropping temperatures back into the 5-15 degrees below normal range. There remains much uncertainty with other factors about this system, such at track, strength, and moisture content. So stay tuned. Taking a look even further out, models look to keep this unsettled pattern in place.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1132 PM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Passing mid and high level cloudiness may lead to some light showers through the early morning hours with VFR expected to hold. The biggest concern will be strong wind gusts being brought down with the showers with gusts over 40 mph possible. Otherwise the stronger winds aloft will keep a threat of LLWS in place through mid morning before winds get mixed down to the surface. A push of moisture ahead of an approaching system will increase shower and thunderstorm activity in the latter part of the forecast with again...gusty winds possible. VFR remain the prevailing forecast through tomorrow evening with conditions turning downward toward sunrise and beyond.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.