textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Smoke may continue to be visible today due to a fire burning south of Salt Lake City.

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect until 8PM tonight for southwest Colorado.

- Red Flag Warnings have been issued Tuesday (12PM-10PM) for southeast Utah, southwest Colorado, and along the Divide.

- Hot, dry, windy conditions will be around this week, with moisture chances creeping in late week, with the main threat being dry thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

HOT, DRY, WINDY WEEK:

The current synoptic level pattern is characterized by a low pressure system located to our north across southern Canada, and a high pressure system located to our south along the Mexican border. This leaves our region under mostly zonal flow for the time being. Mostly sunny skies will be around today, as subsidence prevails. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible this afternoon, mainly in southwest Colorado and along the Divide. Hence, Red Flag Warnings are in effect until 8 PM tonight for southwest Colorado. As the high pressure system to our south inches northward, pressure gradient contours tighten up, giving way to gusty winds each afternoon this week. This will lead to more widespread critical fire weather conditions. Red Flag Warnings will also be in effect for Tuesday (12PM-10PM) for southeastern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and areas along the Divide. See the Fire Weather section for more information on those highlights. The desert valleys could see more triple digit daytime highs by mid-week. If recreating outdoors, stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade.

MOISTURE CHANCES THIS WEEK:

As moisture begins to move in from the west, isolated to scattered showers are expected each afternoon from Wednesday until Friday. These chances appear to be confined to the higher terrain, but some model guidance suggests some moisture advection pushing further north. As HiRes guidance becomes available later in the week, we may have a better grasp on the outcome. Although, we have been situated under a very dry airmass over the past week or so, which would decrease the chances of any significant wetting rain. The more likely outcome will be a chance for dry thunderstorms each afternoon accompanied by erratic outflow winds as a result of virga. By Friday, an upper level trough begins to drop from the PacNW to sweep any lingering moisture out of the region, bringing a return to extremely dry conditions in combination with gusty surface winds. This will introduce the risk of widespread critical fire weather conditions through the weekend. If the dry lightning materializes this week, its combination with Saturday's critical fire weather conditions could introduce the threat of new fire starts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Winds are still light and variable at some sites, but gusts of 20 kts are forecast to begin shortly and persist through the afternoon at all sites, with stronger gusts possible along the higher terrain. Reduced visibility continues to be a concern at KCNY this afternoon and KVEL this evening through tomorrow morning due to wildfire smoke moving in from the west. FEW mid and high level clouds are expected this afternoon, but otherwise skies will be clear.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are confined to southwest Colorado today and along the Divide. Red Flag Warnings are in effect today for those areas until 8PM. A tightening pressure gradient will give way to more widespread critical fire weather conditions Tuesday. Therefore, another Red Flag Warning (12PM-10PM) has been issued Tuesday for southeastern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and along the Divide. Gusts will be upwards of 30 mph for both of these days, with minimum humidities in the low teens and single digits. Daytime highs are also expected to be in the triple digits for most desert valleys at this time. Some mid to high level moisture moves into the region later in the week which will introduce the risk of dry lightning and erratic virga outflow winds Wednesday through Friday. Held off on issuing highlights for Wednesday as some uncertainty still exists, but dry thunderstorms appear to be a threat. The weekend will see a return of widespread critical fire weather conditions. Continue to monitor our forecast as updates are made.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ201-205- 207-290>295. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ207- 290>295. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ491.