textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening as well as tomorrow. The stronger storms may produce small hail, heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

- Critical fire weather conditions return on Friday for eastern Utah and portions of far Western Colorado. Those conditions become widespread on Saturday and Sunday due to strong 40-50+ mph surface winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1114 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MOISTURE:

The increase in moisture and showers overnight have caused much of the smoke to dissipate and move out. There will still be some haze around, and more smoke is possible later if the Utah fires plume once again. This afternoon and evening another round of scattered showers and storms are expected. With dew points in the 40s there is a chance for the stronger storms to produce heavy rainfall, and small hail. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible as well. Tomorrow a dry slot spreads over the western third of the area ahead of the deepening trough to our west. This is where critical fire weather is expected. The rest of the area will still have moisture and the chances for afternoon showers and storms. A few strong storms are possible once again especially given an overall increase in shear.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER:

This weekend the low pressure tracks over the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. The associated jet stream will move overhead along with the dry slot. This will push out any lingering moisture. Southwest winds are expected to increase on Saturday and Sunday with gusts around 40-50 mph for many locations. All of this will result in widespread critical fire weather conditions across the region. On Monday the trough will still be located to our west, which keeps us in the dry and windy southwest flow. Although wind speeds do decrease compared to the weekend. Temperatures will be around normal to slightly below through mid next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 540 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Chances for showers and storms continue this evening. TEMPO and PROB30 groups remain in place to account convection across the region. Mid-level cloud cover will propagate the area through the period, with some lower cigs possible where showers emerge. Smoke will continue to be visible through the period, but opted to leave it out of most TAFs as it doesn't appear to impact visibilities as much as previous days.

Afternoon thunderstorms (CO terminals) and gusty afternoon winds (strongest at UT terminals) will be the main focus of tomorrow's forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Dry thunderstorms remain a concern today and tomorrow mainly due to the fast storm motions. Some of these storms might actually produce heavy rainfall rates. Critical fire weather conditions return on Friday afternoon to eastern UT and portions of western CO. With poor overnight RH recovery and increasing winds fire weather continues Friday night for eastern Utah. Critical fire weather becomes widespread this weekend. Wind speeds of 40-50 mph will be common for many locations. Relative humidities near 10 percent in the gusty environment are expected to lead to extreme fire behavior. These conditions following any lightning starts will remain a forecast concern through the weekend. These fire weather conditions may linger into Monday although with lower wind speeds.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ200-202- 203-207-290. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for COZ200>203-205-207-290>295. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ202-203-207-290-292-294. UT...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ487-490-491. Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to midnight MDT Saturday night for UTZ486-487-490-491.