textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the high terrain Wednesday afternoon. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible and some isolated storms may occasionally track into valleys.

- Isolated, terrain-driven showers and thunderstorms continue through Saturday.

- High temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

- A stronger storm system may pass through early next week, bringing chances for widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS:

There has been very little change from the pattern yesterday. In fact, models are still showing that weak circulation over our area once again. Expect showers and storms to develop this afternoon mainly over the higher terrain. Outflow boundaries moving off the terrain will focus additional development over the valleys into the evening hours. These storms will be capable of producing small hail, gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall. Tomorrow is not much different, so expect showers and storms with similar impact. Temperatures are running 10-15 degrees above normal, but cool down closer to normal over the weekend.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION:

The pattern gets much more complicated this weekend. A low pressure dropping southward along the West Coast will steer the remnants of Hurricane Rachel into the Desert Southwest. As of now models agree the remnants will track over Southern Cal and Las Vegas before getting absorbed into the deepening low pressure. For our are that means increasing southwest flow and moisture advection beginning on Saturday. Therefore precipitation chances and coverage increases. On Sunday we should get the affects of the remnant tropical system. The main uncertainties are how much forcing and or convection will we actually get. There looks to be a break on Monday before a potential second round, but that could change at this point too. As the low pressure spins over the Desert Southwest it begins to pull mositure northward from Mexico. This moisture may also be tropical in nature, so we would expect increasing precipitation chances. Eventually the low pressure moves eastward over the region. This second round would take place Tuesday onward. The low pressure would certainly bring forcing and a cooler airmass to our area, but these cut off low pressures are notorious for stalling out longer than the models initially show. Therefore confidence in the details is low attm.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Expect mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period. The exception will be scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms across the southern mountains and along the Divide farther north through 00Z diminishing thereafter and ending by about 04Z. Included PROB30 in TAFs for KASE, KEGE, KGUC and KTEX this afternoon. Probabilities were too low to include in the other mountain TAF sites.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.