textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect through this evening for western Colorado and northeastern Utah, and tomorrow in some areas of the central Colorado mountains.

- A chance for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for tomorrow and Sunday increasing the risk for new fire starts.

- High pressure builds in next week bringing a return to well above normal temperatures, gusty winds, and dry conditions. Critical fire weather conditions look to continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Fire weather continues to be the main focus of the forecast as no major pattern changes are expected over the next week or so. Tomorrow moisture moving into the desert southwest looks to reach the Four Corners are and the southern and central Colorado high terrain. This will increase PoPs beginning tomorrow afternoon, just in the Four Corners region and southern mountains at first, then also the central mountains by Saturday night. However, PoPs remain relatively low (<20%) until early Sunday morning. Due to very dry surface conditions, virga is expected from many of the showers and storms, especially on Saturday. This means lightning and strong wind gusts are the bigger concerns. On Sunday more moisture works its way into the region, in addition to some pieces of energy in the flow, which will increase chances of showers and thunderstorms, but wetting rains are really only expected over the southern mountains on during Sunday afternoon.

Red Flag Warnings are in effect across the region until 9 PM this evening, and tomorrow for some areas in the central mountains from 1 to 8 PM. The moisture moving in should keep fire weather conditions localized on Sunday, but chances for dry thunderstorms raise concerns for potential fire starts. A return of a drier airmass is expected to bring more widespread fire weather conditions to the area sometime next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty winds are expected to develop by the afternoon, mainly within the 20-25kt range, with locally higher gusts possible. Mostly clear skies expected for most terminals, with some high clouds popping up at terminals south of I-70.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected to persist over the next week or so, with only one day of increased moisture allowing for conditions to become localized. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for tomorrow from 1 to 8 PM in CO zone 205 below 8,000 feet and CO zone 293. Tomorrow gusts in these two zones are expected to be more on the marginal side around 25 to 30 mph, but gusts over 30 mph are possible in localized areas. Moisture working its way into the southern part of our area could lead to dry thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in the Four Corners region, and again on Sunday in a similar area as more moisture moves in. Although, this moisture push is also expected to keep critical fire weather conditions localized on Sunday. More widespread critical fire weather conditions are anticipated to return next week as moisture exits the area.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200>203- 205-207-290>295. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ205-293. UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487.