textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds and anomalously warm temperatures continue for the remainder of week into the weekend. Northern valleys will see gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range this afternoon with gusts exceeding 40 mph at times through the weekend.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will also lead to elevated fire weather concerns through the weekend.

- Snow chances increase over the northern and central mountains Saturday night.

- Anomalously warm temperatures around 20 degrees above normal are possible next week increasing the probability of accelerated snowmelt.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1129 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Strong ridging off the southern California coast and a deep downstream trough over the eastern CONUS leaves moderately fast northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies/Plains. Unfortunately the main moisture plume in this flow is well to the north under the main jet streak aloft, so strong winds will be the main hazard over our forecast area.

Unseasonably warm temperatures and steep low level lapse rates aid mixing this afternoon. A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM this evening for the areas with the highest probability of seeing wind gusts greater than 45 mph this afternoon (>58 mph over the eastern Uintas).

Warm, dry, and windy conditions continue tomorrow. This will lead to elevated fire weather concerns Friday afternoon, especially around the Four Corners region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A strong 170+ kt jet streak will push into the Pacific Northwest and cause the polar jet to our north to dip into the northern portions of our CWA for Saturday. This will lead to windier conditions across much of the CWA with gusts 30 to 40 mph at least in the valleys and some areas approaching 50 mph on Saturday afternoon with the mountains seeing higher gusts. Low relative humidities will accompany this wind, contributing to the potential for more widespread critical fire weather conditions. Fuels at this time are not deemed critical, but this will be something to keep an eye on as the hot, dry, windy index is elevated across much of the area. Temperatures will be around 15 degrees above normal for Saturday.

The 170kt jet streak on the back side of this upper level trough will push through Saturday evening into Sunday, resulting in much cooler temperatures on Sunday with a drop of about 20 degrees or so compared to Saturday's warmth. So highs on Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. In addition, we will see some snow over the northern and central Colorado mountains along the Divide with current projections indicating around 2 to 5 inches with this first round Saturday evening through Sunday morning with locally higher amounts possible over the Park Range above timberline. Some additional light snow may occur on Monday as another jet streak moves through following the first but weaker and mainly northwest orographics providing the main source of lift with minimal additional accumulation anticipated. Travel could be affected with slushy roads at the passes during the overnight and morning hours, particularly Rabbit Ears and Vail Pass Sunday morning.

Temperatures take a hit with a brief cool snap Sunday into Monday but will bounce back quickly as the strong northwest flow aloft is replaced by a strong amplified ridge of high pressure building across the west and shifting overhead by mid next week. High temperatures will soar towards 20 to 25 degrees above normal by mid to late next week with dry conditions expected, which translates to 80s for our lower valleys. This leads to concerns for accelerated snowmelt in the mountains so something to keep an eye on as we transition to these much warmer temperatures if the trend continues.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with breezy afternoon winds gusting 25-35 knots at most terminals. LLWS will be an issue in sheltered valleys tonight.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-002-008- 014. UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ023-024.