textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts of 40-55 mph will be common across the area on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the next storm system. In areas where fuels are critical Red Flag Warnings have been issued.

- Light showers are possible over the Uintas and Park Range on Wednesday. Virga showers could exacerbate wind concerns.

- Unsettled, cooler, and wetter weather will move in late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

WINDY MID-WEEK

Low pressure presently located off the west coast will begin trekking across the western CONUS over the coming days. Moisture is notable as of now per water vapor imagery, but according to ensembles, as it reaches the Great Basin and, eventually, our CWA, this plume of moisture will begin to dissipate. Regardless, accompanying the trough will be a potent cold front, which is aiming to pass through the region late Wednesday afternoon and evening. With ample lift from this frontal boundary, some isolated showers near the Uintas and Park Range are anticipated. The potential for enhanced gusts underneath virga showers will be a concern as the system passes through though. This would coincide with an already windy and dry period which is prompting fire weather concerns across the northern CWA (refer to the Fire Weather section for additional information).

COOLER TEMPERATURES BECOMING WETTER WEEKEND

Temperatures quickly drop off behind the front, with many locations seeing afternoon highs and overnight lows returning back to near-normal or slightly below normal Wednesday night and beyond. Thursday night is on track to be the chilliest of the week, and could prompt freeze concerns for some valleys. Coverage is still iffy at this point, but it will be worth keeping an eye on over following forecast updates.

Models aren't in good agreement yet, but early indicators are that this weekend will bring another bout of increased moisture. This comes with the arrival of a shortwave trough to the CONUS on Saturday, which would eventually pass over or near our CWA, although timing on this is too soon to be determined. Nevertheless, as flow turns southwesterly around the trough, Pacific moisture will stream towards the Four Corners region with current PWAT anomaly projections anywhere from 125-200% of normal. With cooler temperatures in place, this could ultimately give us a little late-season boost to the snowpack, though it'll take better model agreement before totals can be speculated. Stay tuned for additional updates over the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Some afternoon convective showers have popped up across the higher terrain, with some light rain reaching the ground at KGUC. Don't anticipate this occurring for most other terminals, although gusty and erratic winds associated with virga showers remain possible through sunset. Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds will remain through the night at most locations. Winds will increase after 12z, peaking in the afternoon with gusts of 30-40 knots possible. Terminals along and north of I-70 are most favored to see wind gusts at this level. Passing mid to high level clouds are expected through the period, but will remain above breakpoints. LLWS cannot be ruled out in sheltered valleys before 15z. VFR conditions will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1213 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

On Wednesday afternoon many locations below 7,000 feet will experience RH below 15% and wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph. However, fuels are only critical in northwestern Colorado for the moment. In these locations, RH is borderline for critical fire weather conditions. Regardless, due to the anticipated strong gusts, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Colorado zones 200 and 202. Should virga showers develop within these zones, stronger and more erratic gusts could add to fire concerns.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002- 006>008-011-020>022. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200- 202. UT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ022-024- 027-029.