textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of the central Colorado mountains today.

- There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday. Some dry thunderstorms will be possible, posing a threat of new fire starts.

- High pressure builds in next week bringing a return to well above normal temperatures, gusty winds, and dry conditions. Critical fire weather conditions look to continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The area remains under westerly flow aloft, which has brought in midlevel moisture. This moisture will support showers and perhaps a few storms this afternoon. The surface is still relatively dry and so the chances for measurable rainfall are low and gusty winds are high. The showers and storms will be concentrated in and around the southern mountains. Most of that activity will dissipate between sunset and midnight. Mositure increases tomorrow so expect the coverage of afternoon convection to expand. Once again the southern mountains are favored, but showers may develop further north towards the I-70 corridor. Instability is higher as well so we should see more thunderstorms. Once again mensurable rain is limited and gusty winds are more likely. Moisture gets pushed out of the area on Monday and temperatures gradually increase going into the week. We also see an uptick in critical fire weather as this period is to stay dry and winds increase.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Winds are mostly light across the region now, but stronger gusts will begin shortly. Gusts near or above 20 kts are anticipated at most sites during the afternoon, with gusts diminishing around sunset. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible over the San Juans and in the Four Corners area, with gusty and erratic winds, and lightning, as the primary concerns with any storms. VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Today the Red Flag is confined to the central CO mountains with more isolated conditions across the northern CWA. Afternoon showers and storms are possible today and Sunday especially along and south of I-70. The southern mountains will be favored. Dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but the likelihood is <15% today compared to 25-50% chance on Sunday. Widespread Red Flag conditions due to low RH and strong gusts return on Monday and persist at least through Wednesday.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ205-293. UT...None.