textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions persist through the weekend, with temperatures nearly 20 degrees above normal.

- Light precipitation or flurries will be possible on the mountains Friday night through Saturday as a batch of moisture works through but impacts will be minimal to none.

- A pattern shift to cooler and wetter conditions looks to develop by Tuesday and is likely to persist though much of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 254 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

High pressure entrenched across the West will continue to exert its influence on the forecast today and tomorrow. High temperatures will push nearly 20 degrees above climatology around the region. Interestingly, records will be hard to crack, given that last year we recorded 66 and 67 here at Walker Field in Grand Junction on the 5th and 6th, respectively. Nonetheless, highs will likely approach the top 10 for both days. Abundant sunshine and light winds will add to the spring-like conditions. Low dewpoints will keep diurnal swings wide around the region, leading to continued cold nights in our cold basins. Adjusted lows down nearly 10 degrees from guidance for many of our cold spots that models struggle with.

Low pressure works under the ridge, sliding across Baja on Friday morning. This lifts a weak wave into the Four Corners early Friday morning. Precipitation chances remain nil, but cloud cover increases on Friday as this feature scoops some upper level moisture into the West Slope. This results in overcast skies for much of the region by Friday evening, potentially taking a bite out of afternoon highs Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 254 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Friday night and Saturday the shearing energy and moisture lifting northward merge with a passing northern stream wave and basically keeps some weak disorganized lift across the area during this time. There could be mountain flurries or very light orographic precipitation during this time but confidence is extremely low. More likely it will be virga and thicker cloud cover...especially over the lower elevations. The blended models are still signaling the highest probability (around 20 percent!) of measurable precipitation over the southern mountains Saturday afternoon likely due to the addition of convective potential. The ridge is re-established by Sunday keeping dry and warm conditions in place to start out the week. However, a cooler and wetter shift to the pattern is still looking on track as we move into Tuesday and beyond. The resilient ridge over the West looks to take at least a temporary hiatus through the middle of the month. As the northern stream trough becomes more established in the West the first cold front and upper support looks to drop into and through our CWA on Tuesday. It is too early for exact details such as snow level and precipitation type in many areas...but through next week the unsettled pattern should begin to trend our snowpack trace in a direction other than downward. Above normal temperatures stay in place through Monday then drop to more seasonable temperatures as we get into the middle of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 418 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

High pressure will remain in place with VFR conditions at the terminals through the period. Winds remain light and terrain driven.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.