textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will begin to gradually cool, but record high temperatures remain possible through Monday.

- Dry and windy conditions persist through at least the weekend, bringing at least localized critical fire weather conditions, with better potential on Saturday due to gusts 25-35 mph.

- A pattern shift is expected next week, bringing a return to cooler temperatures, valley rain, and potentially some mountain snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

In collaboration with CYS and RIW, decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon and evening. Even though relative humidity increases a bit and values are on the upper end of thresholds, there is potential for critical fire weather conditions across northwest Colorado zones where fuels are critical with RH between 12 and 17 percent. Winds also increase quite a bit with gusts 25 to 35 mph and potentially up to 40 mph in some areas. Sunday appears more localized as winds decrease a bit so decided only to include Saturday for now.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE:

Cooler temperatures are in the upcoming forecast as a high pressure center to our southeast gradually flattens, but daytime high's are still expected to be above normal through at least early next week. Chances for record breaking high temperatures persist through Monday, but any broken records are expected to be at a smaller margin than some of this week's previous broken records. A few shortwaves passing this weekend increase PoPs, especially over the higher terrain. However, dry surface conditions keep the forecast QPF around zero until Monday. Dry conditions and gusty afternoon winds could cause an increase in fire weather concerns, especially on Saturday, which is expected to be the day with the strongest afternoon winds through the weekend.

PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK:

PoPs increase on Monday, primarily along the higher terrain, as atmospheric moisture advects into the region. Although timing and placement differs, models do seem to agree on a pattern shift sometime next week as moisture remains in the area, and synoptic forcing increases as a trough moves off of the Pacific and through the Rocky Mountains. This would likely result in a drop to near normal temperatures as flow shifts from southwesterly to more westerly or northwesterly, and potentially some valley rain and mountain snow. However, it is still too soon to really speak on any details with confidence.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 532 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

High clouds remain across northeast Utah and portions of northwest Colorado this morning with generally light and terrain driven winds. Scattered high clouds will traverse the area throughout the day from time to time with VFR conditions and breezy winds mainly at higher elevation sites with gusts to 25 kts at times, although less than 24 hours ago.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Weaker wind gusts are expected on Friday, with gusts near or below 20 mph expected in most areas. However, southwestern Colorado and southeastern Utah could see stronger gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon, resulting in localized fire weather conditions. Saturday looks to be the bigger concern as widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible. Even though critical fire weather conditions are borderline in terms of relative humidity on Saturday with RH between 12 and 17 percent, decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for this potential as winds could gust up to 40 mph with deep mixing where fuels are critical.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for COZ200-202. UT...None.