textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/snow showers and thunderstorms will persist in the forecast through Wednesday.

- Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the areas along the Continental Divide Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

- Freeze Watches in effect for northwest Colorado valleys Tuesday and Wednesday night as low temperatures will drop into the mid-20s.

- High pressure will return temperatures back above normal late week.

- Another disturbance could bring additional showers to the northern mountains this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 418 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Latest model runs continue to show cold overnight lows Thursday morning for many valley locations. Went ahead and issued another Freeze Watch to account for these cold temperatures. Lows will reach the low to mid 20s across the region Thursday morning. The Freeze Watch for tonight also remains in effect.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1058 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

WINTER RETURNS TO THE REGION:

Showers are continuing across the central portions of the forecast area with light to moderate rates. Roads have remained wet much of the day but expect that to change Tuesday as colder air starts to push in from the north. The frontal boundary looks to lift northward towards our northern border as the cut off low moves across the Great Basin into Arizona and a deeper and colder trough pushes southward across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. We will see this frontal boundary draped across the north by late Tuesday morning into the afternoon with steep lapse rates, CAPE around 200 to 400 J/kg and low and mid level convergence along it. Frontogenesis fields are fairly robust so anticipating convection with moderate to heavy precipitation rates at times during the afternoon. The northern Park Range will be cold enough to produce snow at this point with snow levels around 9000 feet. Moisture is pretty robust for this time of year across the north with PWAT anomalies up to 180 to 200 percent of normal along this frontal boundary so there is good moisture to work with, hence why the precipitation rates and amounts good be quite beneficial. This frontal boundary will push southward across the central corridor by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening and down towards the central and southern areas by Wednesday afternoon before moving out of here. H7 temps drop into the -8C to -10C range across the central and northern areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which is about the period in time where roads at the higher passes could become slick and travel looks to be impacted, especially over Rabbit Ears and Vail Passes. Current Winter Weather Advisories look on track but decided to push up the start time for the northern and central divide mountains (COZ004 and COZ010) to noon Tuesday as dynamics will be enhanced here with the front and convection could drive snow levels lower for some impacts. The Sawatch and West Elks (COZ012) still start at 6 pm Tuesday with the arrival of the front pushing southward so that seemed reasonable. Expect snow totals of 5 to 10 inches across these mountains with locally higher amounts possible over the Park Range due to greater residence time of the frontal boundary and colder air. Showers will gradually taper off Wednesday afternoon up north and by Wednesday evening down south as this system exits the region.

In addition to the Winter Highlights, decided to issue a Freeze Watch for the northwest Colorado valley zones Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as lows will drop into the 20s with the cold front passage. There is potential for more areas to see sub-freezing temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning as this trough exits so stay tuned.

LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND:

High pressure builds back across the West and dries us out further Thursday. After a couple of cool, cloudy afternoons on Tuesday and Wednesday, Temperatures surge back above normal Thursday and into the weekend. Models drop another disturbance into the region from the PACNW on Saturday. This could return some showers back to the forecast everywhere northeast of the Four Corners. However, it does look like temperatures will trend upward, despite some cloud cover next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 519 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Midlevel ceilings remain across much of the forecast area this morning with showers noted up across the northern valleys. TAF sites should remain low end VFR (maybe occasionally dropping to brief MVFR) but showers and storms will return later this morning and afternoon. A front will be approaching from the north today bringing rain showers, thunderstorms, and mountain snows. All TAF sites will be under the gun to see these showers/storms and can expect MVFR, if not IFR, to occur under and near the strongest of these. ILS breakpoints will likely be met for most TAF sites, especially in the afternoon heading towards the evening hours. Gusty winds of 20 to 25kts can also be expected with higher gusts possible near any showers or storms that form.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002. Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for COZ001-002-007-008-011-021>023. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon MDT Wednesday for COZ004-010. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ012. UT...None.