textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected each afternoon through this week.

- Light showers are possible over the Uintas and northern mountains through Thursday afternoon. Virga showers could exacerbate wind concerns.

- Cooler and unsettled weather returns for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

DRY AND WINDY THROUGH FRIDAY:

Despite the synoptic forcing moving through our area from a low pressure system, which is currently moving across Rocky Mountains and into the Great Plains, anomalously dry air is limiting precipitation. Radar imagery shows activity in northwest Colorado near the Wyoming border, but traffic cameras suggest this is likely just virga. This observation aligns with our 00Z sounding, which shows very dry conditions in the lower atmosphere. A band of vorticity and a cold front will pass through the CWA tonight, which may be enough forcing when combined with orographic lift to promote showers over the higher terrain through tomorrow afternoon. However, the dry surface conditions keep QPF very low.

Although this low pressure system has not been a big precipitation producer for our area, it does continue to bring strong winds to the region thanks to increased winds aloft and a strong pressure gradient. After sunset winds weakened, but gusts of 20 to 30 mph still persist in some areas. Strong afternoon wind gusts return daily through the rest of the week while stronger winds remain overhead, although gusts will generally be at a lesser magnitude than what was observed today.

The anomalously dry airmass is forecast to remain in place until Saturday. This will keep RH values on the lower side in some areas through the workweek. The dry conditions and strong afternoon wind gusts raise fire weather concerns on Friday, particularly where these weather conditions might coincide with critical fuels in northwest Colorado.

MOISTURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND:

Models continue to trend towards widespread valley rain and mountain snow this weekend. Moisture is forecast to advect across the Southwest as a low off of the coast of California moves onshore. This low looks to eventually become absorbed into the flow around a low pressure system to our north, but as it moves across the Great Basin the low should bring increased upper level support to our area. Some models have the left exit region of the jet positioned near the southern part of our CWA this weekend. The jet support, in addition to energy associated with the passing system, could supply a substantial amount of forcing for precipitation. As we get closer to this weekend it will be worth watching how the models continue to position this jet.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1158 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Winds will briefly decrease overnight, but will increase this morning/early afternoon. There is a low chance (<20%) of showers over the higher terrain today, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.