textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Freeze Warnings are in place for the Yampa River Basin, central Colorado River Basin and SW Colorado valleys from midnight tonight through 9 AM Saturday morning.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, favoring the San Juans with rain in the lower elevations and some accumulating snow above 8500 feet.

- Temperatures warm above average this weekend with overall drier conditions and isolated showers on the mountains each afternoon.

- Precipitation chances increase again late Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Cumulus are building over the central and southern mountains late this morning with some isolated shower activity beginning to pop over the San Juans. This is due to lingering moisture and diurnal heating as a frontal boundary remains draped across the San Juans, acting as a focal point for convective initiation. The associated shortwave trough is positioned over southwest Colorado and will shift southward this evening. Expect scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms to occur mainly over the San Juans but not expecting much in the way of significant accumulation given weak dynamics and lack of upper level support. There could be a couple inches at best over the higher peaks and passes but roads expected to remain mainly wet. Even though some cumulus are popping over the central mountains, they are fairly shallow and not seeing much on radar. Feel this is due to the emergence of a high pressure ridge building across the northern Great Basin into the Intermountain West, leading to suppression and stabilization further north. So, best shower activity looks to be confined to the San Juans. Drier easterly flow pushes into the area from the north as the high pressure builds and shortwave trough moves southward out of the area tonight. With clearing skies, we are expecting another night of sub-freezing temperatures for our higher northwest Colorado valleys, Upper Colorado River Basin and southwest Colorado valleys from the Animas to the San Juan River Basin. Therefore, issued another Freeze Warning for these areas tonight through 9 am Saturday morning.

THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK:

As the high pressure ridge builds overhead this weekend, look for temperatures to warm to above normal with isolated afternoon showers in the mountains focused more over the San Juans due to residual moisture and diurnal heating. Most areas will remain relatively dry, with light winds. Models seem to be in agreement about a low pushing across the Great Basin Monday bringing our next chance for rain. This system is still far out, and models are bouncing between more and less total precip from this system, but the trend is for pretty insignificant amounts for eastern Utah and the far western Colorado with more possible in the central and northern Colorado mountains. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists though but unsettled weather is possible through early next week with this trough overhead. With that being said, in lieu of this system, temperatures are trending back towards normal for most of next week with the troughing overhead and increased cloud cover.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Scattered shower activity will occur over the southern mountains with cumulus buildups over the high terrain this afternoon as heating of the day and a passing system aloft work together. Biggest impacts will be over the southern Colorado mountains. With this pattern the typical upvalley flow will be overwritten by northeasterly flow making for some non-typical winds in the afternoon in many areas. Expect VFR conditions with some MVFR possible due to lower CIGS with passing showers. Shower activity should die down by sunset with clearing skies overnight and a return to light, terrain driven winds.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ001-002-008-022-023. UT...None.