textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warnings are in place for southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado through 10 PM tonight.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue throughout the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The parent trough is draped across the Great Basin this afternoon per water vapor imagery with a dry stream of air traveling around its base and into our CWA. The pressure gradient ahead of this trough remains strong, and intense wind gusts persist this afternoon as a result, though they have been dragging behind the forecast to a degree. Nonetheless, gusts are currently sitting at 30-45 mph across the region, and for portions of southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado are expected to bump up to 45-55 mph throughout the afternoon. With relative humidity still anticipated to fall into the single digits this afternoon as well, the extreme fire weather setup is still in place.

Though the low begins to move to the northeast Monday, taking the tightest pressure gradient and strongest winds with it, the parent trough hardly budges. As such we will still be on the windy and dry side throughout the week, though the intensity of fire weather concerns will weaken somewhat. Still, look for critical fire weather conditions to be exhibited across most areas of the region as the week progresses.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Gusty southwest winds will continue at all terminals through the early evening hours. Expect peak wind gusts generally between 30 and 40 knots. Numerous wildfires in the area will become increasingly active in the afternoon hours, thus increasing smoke concentrations. VIS drops into MVFR are possible at several terminals, most likely between about 21z and 03z. Confidence in smoke reducing VIS is highest at GJT, MTJ, HDN, RIL, and ASE, but could spread into other terminals as well depending on the precise plume direction and magnitude of fire activity. A wind shift will occur this evening around 02 to 04z at UT and northern CO terminals, which will push smoke out but also will bring gusty northwest winds for a few hours. Expect winds to gradually ease elsewhere late this evening with LLWS developing at TEX, ASE, and DRO. West to southwest wind gusts will kick up again around 15 to 17z Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Numerous fire starts developed across the central and southern part of the CWA yesterday and exhibited extreme behaviors. With some hot spots burning throughout the night and in anticipation of similar weather conditions today in regards to gusts and relative humidity, concerns have risen of another extreme wildfire day today. Winds are not quite as strong as initially anticipated, but the expectation remains for gusts to exceed 45 mph this afternoon and rise as high as 55 mph. The strongest conditions look to occur near existing wildfires, namely the Snyder, Ferris, and Babylon Fires. However, other fires in the area could be exposed to similarly strong conditions. Wherever the worst winds and RH develop, all fires will have the potential for rapid wildfire spread today. As such, a Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag situation is in place through 10 PM.

Additionally, a frontal boundary is presently spread across the Tavaputs and Roan Cliffs. To the northwest, winds are northwesterly. Over the afternoon, the boundary will dip southwards towards I-70, bringing the northwesterly winds with it. The question remains, will it fall south enough to pass over the Snyder Fire? Most hi-res models suggest it will not, and that only a minimal wind shift to the west is possible. However, some models such as the HRRR and RAP are noting the boundary will pass over the fire and winds here will shift to northwesterly. As of now, a weak to no wind shift is the likeliest outcome, but uncertainty due to the placement of the frontal boundary means we cannot rule out the wind shift. If winds do shift, look for it to occur between 8-10 PM local time.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ202-203- 205-207-290>295. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292>294. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ011-020-021. UT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490- 491. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for UTZ487-490-491. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027.