textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- The San Juans have the most favored chance (60-70%) for showers and storms Sunday. Some dry thunderstorms are possible, posing a threat for new fire starts

- High pressure builds in this week, bringing a return to hot, dry, windy conditions. Critical fire weather conditions look to continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 947 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

An upper level ridge is beginning to establish itself over much of the West as we end the weekend and move into the work week. The San Juans have the most favored chance (60-70%) for showers and storms Sunday, but there is a possibility for dry thunderstorms to materialize, posing a threat for new fire starts. Accumulations, if any, from this system appear to be minuscule. Some HiRes model guidance depicts a slight chance (20%) for showers and storms to scatter northward towards the I-70 corridor and in portions of eastern Utah for Sunday as well. More cloud coverage is anticipated Sunday which will drop daytime highs a few degrees below Saturday, but still above normal. Critical fire weather conditions appear to be mostly localized Sunday, therefore no products have been issued.

HOT, DRY, WINDY WORK WEEK:

The aformentioned ridge begins to propagate further west as the work week begins, prolonging hot, dry, windy conditions. Critical fire weather conditions are projected to expand on Monday, becoming increasingly widespread on Tuesday, and peaking in coverage by Wednesday. Wednesday also appears to be the hottest day of the week, with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal, with triple digits possible in some locations. If recreating outdoors, stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade. Guidance suggests very little chances for precipitation throughout the week and the continuation of daytime highs 5-10 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1205 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Expect light and terrain driven winds overnight becoming gusty west winds between 18Z and 03Z with mostly VFR conditions. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly at the TAF sites south of I-70. Probabilities were high enough for predominant showers and thunderstorms in the KTEX TAF through the afternoon while the other TAF sites have vicinity storms on the nearby peaks or PROB30 over the station. MVFR conditions may be possible where thunderstorm activity is present.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.