textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Today's forecast features one last day of hot, dry, and windy weather.

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the lower elevations of northwest and west-central Colorado this afternoon from noon to 8 pm MDT today.

- A pattern shift is expected Tuesday and beyond bringing cooler temperatures, valley rain, and mountain snow above 9,000 feet.

UPDATE

Issued at 142 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Updated hazard headlines for expansion of Red Flag Warnings for today. Decided to also include Fire Weather Zone 201 below 9000 feet as lower elevations of this zone look to hit criteria with gusts 35 to 45 mph and relative humidity below 15 percent at times. Steamboat and Hayden hit criteria yesterday and today looks more widespread and windier. Earlier inclusions with the evening forecast package also include Fire Weather Zones 290 and 292 where fuel status was updated to critical.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Mar 29 2026

ONE MORE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY DAY:

High pressure continues to break down on Monday, but neutral temperature advection will keep temperatures across the region well above normal for late March. We will see the pressure gradient strengthen throughout the day on Monday leading to an uptick in winds, especially along and north of I-70. As such, afternoon wind gusts up to 45 mph are expected in the valleys with stronger gusts possible over the higher terrain. Conditions remain dry as well leading to critical fire weather conditions where fuels are susceptible.

PATTERN SHIFT AHEAD:

A trough tracks across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains early this week pushing cooler temperatures southward behind its attendant cold front. At the same time, we see an uptick in moisture advection, arriving at both the northern and southern flanks of the forecast area late Monday before becoming more widespread by Tuesday. With antecedent dry surface conditions, this moisture will predominately present as cloudy skies until the lower levels saturate after sunset on Tuesday. PWATs of 200-250% of normal remain in place through Wednesday morning before gradually tapering off Thursday into Friday.

With the return of more seasonable temperatures, most mountain ranges will fall below freezing during the overnight periods Tuesday night and beyond. This means that most of the precipitation above 9,000 feet will fall as snow until daytime temperatures warm above freezing. As with most spring systems, snow amounts and impacts are more difficult to nail down and our ongoing heat does not make this task any easier. Model guidance shows a high likelihood (>70% chance) of 6+ inches above 9,000-10,000 feet area wide, but model guidance can over perform this time of year. We will continue to keep an eye on things, but as of now it looks like most impactful accumulations will remain at pass level and will peak in the early morning hours.

Forecast confidence decreases beyond Thursday as drier air takes hold ahead of a low pressure system on Friday. There is a high potential for cooler temperatures with this system, but there are mixed signals regarding the potential for precipitation. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1208 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

SCT to BKN high cloud cover will continue to pass over the area through the 24 hour period with VFR conditions expected. Winds will increase late morning after 15Z with gusts up to 30 kts at valley terminals and gusts up to 40 kts for mountain terminals during the afternoon, mainly from the west/southwest. Breezy conditions will continue through the evening past sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 AM MDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and evening across much of the area. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the lower elevations of northwest and west-central Colorado from noon to 8 pm MDT today. This is where we are expecting a combination of critical fuels, gusty winds up to 45 mph, relative humidities below 15%, and warm temperatures. Critical fire weather conditions quickly drop off on Tuesday and beyond as strong moisture returns to the region.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200>203-205-290-292. UT...None.