textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- An incoming pattern shift brings cooler temperatures, valley rain, and mountain snow above 9000 feet this evening and beyond.

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect from 6PM today through 9PM Wednesday for most major mountain groups on the West Slope.

- Additional measurable snow expected for the mountains on Friday, with a warmer, drier trend this weekend and beyond.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Pattern Shift

An incoming West Coast trough is pushing the deepest plume of moisture we've seen in weeks up across the Southwest into the Four Corners this afternoon. The morning sounding here at Grand Junction still reflects some dry boundary layer conditions, but that is expected to change through the evening as we saturate further. A few thunderstorms have taken advantage of, what appears to be a favorable diffluent region aloft and a weak vort max, despite the overcast skies we've been under all morning. Today concludes a lengthy stretch of anomalous warm days and ushers in a couple days of temperatures that will actually fall below climatology. Winds below the jet max will remain gusty too as we see multiple rounds of strong surface winds over the next couple of days. The main trough swings through tonight and Wednesday morning, delivering valley rain and mountain snow above 9000 feet. Model inconsistencies with moisture remain a problem with this forecast. Chose to keep with a warm and wet solution through the early, wettest portion of this storm tonight and tomorrow morning. Winter Weather Advisories remain in place for 6-12 inches of snow around mountain passes. Favorable alpine aspects could exceed that number in localized convective showers.

Winter Conditions Across Mountains

Snow continues across the mountains Wednesday with advisories in place through 2100 MDT. The bulk of snow arriving Wednesday morning will make for slow travel on mountain roads during the morning commute, but temperatures nudge up through the afternoon and likely mitigate some of those impacts as new snow melts. The main trough lifts out of the region Wednesday night, as another wave comes ashore in the PACNW. This feature works across the Intermountain West on Thursday and will keep orographic snow in the forecast for the mountains as we hold on to some of the cooler air from the first storm. The next wave works through Friday morning bringing additional measurable snowfall for the northern mountains and lighter amounts southward to the Elks and Grand Mesa. This storm bears watching, as we remain close to highlight level again.

Spring Returns

Temperatures rebound above normal this weekend, as weak high pressure builds back in. Models keep things on the progressive side, likely sending a few clouds across the region, but little in the way of precipitation at the moment. Temperatures climb back up around 10 degrees over normal early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 544 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Anomalous moisture continues to stream northward across the 4 corners region with isolated to scattered light showers developing across the area. These showers are pushing wind gusts in the 25 to 45 mph range to the surface which will remain possible through sunset. Expect the shower activity reaching the ground to increase in coverage through the evening and early morning hours and persist well through Wednesday as this system works through. The going forecast is quite pessimistic with widespread MVFR to LIFR conditions developing under the precipitation shield due to low clouds and mixed precipitation. Instability tomorrow afternoon will also allow isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ004- 009-010-012-013-018-019. UT...None.