textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Smoke is visible across the region today due to a fire burning south of Salt Lake City.

- Red Flag Warnings have been issued for this afternoon across much of southwest Colorado.

- Fire Weather Watches have been issued for this Tuesday across southeastern Utah, southwest Colorado and the colorado mountains along the Divide.

- Triple digit heat expected by mid-week with moisture chances returning late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1104 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Low pressure across southern Canada and high pressure along the Mexican Border is keeping a dry zonal flow across the Western States through mid week. As the high pressure to the south pushes up into Arizona and New Mexico Tuesday, the pressure gradients aloft tighten over eastern Utah and Western Colorado bringing gustier winds mixing down through the afternoon across a broader area. With the dry airmass remaining in place, there are increased critical fire weather conditions across the region and thus issued a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday from noon to 9 PM for southeastern Utah, southwestern Colorado and along the Divide from New Mexico to the Wyoming Border. Expect an update on this with the morning forecast package as the details become more clear. Wednesday also looks to have similar conditions with increased wind gust moving into northwestern Colorado. Held off on issuing a watch for Wednesday as there is uncertainty on timing of a moist plume wrapping around the high and moving in from the west. Stay tuned for updates on this.

As this moisture moves in from the west, the Utah mountains tend to dry out the lower layers of the atmosphere in this zonal flow. Though we expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday evening through Friday generally over the higher terrain, most of the rain will evaporate before reaching the ground. This increases the risks for dry lightning and strong outflow winds, possibly 60 mph or more, from virga bombs. A upper-level trough drops down from the Pacific northwest Friday to sweep any lingering moisture out of the region bringing a return of extremely dry conditions and strong gusty winds for the weekend. This poses a threat for widespread critical fire weather conditions across the region through the weekend and possibly into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Monday afternoon will once again see breezy afternoon winds with gusts of 18-25 kts for most terminals, though lighter terrain- driven winds are expected during overnight periods. Models suggest smoke from Utah fires will again be transported over CNY tonight. We've lowered vis slightly during this period, but we don't expect conditions to lower below VFR. Other terminals should expect light and unimpactful smoke through the morning as well.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions become more widespread by today through mid-week. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for today from 1PM to 8PM for most of southwest Colorado. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Tuesday from noon to 9 PM for southeastern Utah, southwestern Colorado and along the Divide from New Mexico to the Wyoming Border. Gusts are expected to be upwards of 30 mph, with locally higher gusts possible. Single- digit RH is also expected during this time, with triple digit daytime highs expected Tuesday and Wednesday for the desert valleys. The risk for critical fire weather conditions are possible again Wednesday, but there is some uncertainty and thus held off issuing any products at this time. Some mid to high level moisture moves into the region late in the week which may bring an increase in RH and lower magnitude wind speeds, but brings risks of dry lightning and virga outflow winds wednesday evening through Friday. The weekend looks to see a return of critical fire weather conditions. Continue to follow our forecast as updates are made.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ201-205-207-290>295. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ207- 290>295. UT...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for UTZ491.