textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Record heat and predominately dry conditions this weekend and early next week with localized critical fire weather conditions.

- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the southern mountains moving off into the valleys through the coming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1042 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Models continue in good agreement with high pressure anchored over the Desert Southwest through the coming week dominating the weather pattern, and holding the monsoonal moisture well to the south keeping dry air with pwats less than a half inch over eastern Utah and Western Colorado. Troughing across western Canada with a couple shortwaves moving through Monday and Tuesday brushing the northern areas stronger westerly afternoon winds while keeping the ridge flattened over the Southwest. The hot, dry conditions with winds flirting with gusts to 25 mph in areas of Western Colorado is hinting at localized critical fire weather conditions. Did not issue any products on these conditions as they are marginal at this time. Will watch these winds over the next few runs for stronger signals. Stay tuned for updates through the first half of the week. Otherwise, look for hot, dry conditions with near record highs across the region, and just isolated showers and thunderstorms along the southern face of the San Juans, especially the eastern San Juans.

For the latter half of the week, leaning more on the ensemble solutions of the GEFS and European AI as they concur on the troughing to the north shifting to the east, a ridge building on the high to the southwest north along the West Coast into the Pacific northwest by mid week. Troughing developing over the Western Pacific will start shifting the pattern east pushing the high east out onto the Plains going into the following week. Confidence is low at more than a week out, but this would be a significant shift to a more monsoonal flow opening the door to the deep moisture over southern Arizona and northern Mexico moving north into the region. Stay tuned on this one too.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 523 AM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the terminals through this TAF period. Skies remain mostly clear with a few thin mid and high level clouds expected this afternoon, especially near the Continental Divide. Non zero chances for a shower remain in the forecast along the southern Continental Divide. This could produce some erratic outflow winds for aviators, but breakpoint conditions are unlikely. Winds will gust to around 20 mph again this afternoon, especially around the terrain. Light winds and clear skies will return at dusk this evening.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ006. UT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ022. Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ024. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ027-029.