textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather continues Saturday into Tuesday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

- A cold front arrives Monday, bringing mountain snow and colder temperatures to start the work week.

- Cooler and unsettled conditions look to stick around through much of the coming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

PATTERN SHIFT:

As troughing deepens off the West Coast, strong southwesterly flow remains in place over the Four Corners. This will continue to advect above normal moisture into the region with forecast PWATs Saturday expected to be 150-200% of normal. Another jet max moving through the southwesterly flow will keep things breezy. The first in a series of waves is expected to brush by the region in the afternoon as well. Between the jet, the wave, and favorable southwesterly orographics, there's plenty of lift to act on this moisture, resulting in scattered to widespread rain showers, and even some thunderstorms. Snow levels remain high, keeping accumulating snow at or above pass level, with accumulations of 1-3 inches expected out of this first round. Take care if traveling over the mountain passes tomorrow evening, as even a light dusting of snow can create slick roads and difficult driving conditions. As this first wave tracks out of the region, and the parent trough continues to deepen off the coast, we come under a brief period of ridging on Sunday. Some drier air tries to filter in, as well as some lighter winds. This break looks to be short lived, however, as the next wave begins to move inland and the southwesterly jet picks back up once again. Between the strengthening winds aloft, and a tightening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front, look for winds to really pick up once more on Monday. Gusts to 45 mph will be possible, potentially higher where influenced by shower or thunderstorm activity.

COOLER AND Unsettled:

The system expected to move through Monday and Tuesday is packing some much cooler air, and a potent cold front. Where highs on Saturday and Sunday will run 5-10 degrees above normal, temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be near to around 5 degrees below normal. The cold front will bring another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday, with lowering snow levels resulting in more widespread mountain snow showers. The main trough axis passes Monday night into Tuesday, with flow expected to switch to northwesterly. Ensemble guidance brings drier air in on this northwesterly flow, but likely there will be enough surface moisture to keep orographic showers going over favored ranges. As a result, another few inches of snow is expected for all the eastern Utah and western Colorado ranges by Wednesday. Another transient ridge is expected to move through Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a brief return to warmer and drier conditions. Models are indicating the potential for another trough to drop down out of the Pacific Northwest to round out the workweek. There is medium confidence (40-60%) that we'll see another cooldown to near or below normal temperatures. However, confidence is poor (<30%) that we'll see another round of widespread precipitation. So stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 446 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours as mid to high level clouds drift through. This moisture will lead to isolated mountain showers early this morning with localized areas of terrain obscuration. As instability increases with heating this afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will expand. The main concern will be gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph as general wind gusts will already be in the 30 to 40 mph range in many areas. Temporary ILS conditions may be possible under shower activity.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.