textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild conditions continue Thursday over most areas but a cold front will be dropping into northeast Utah and northwest Colorado through the day. - Rain and higher elevation snow showers move into the region from the northwest Thursday spreading to the southeast through the afternoon. - Showers become widespread across the northern and central mountains through the evening and more widely scattered to the South. Snow levels fall below 5,000 feet by early Friday with the heaviest snow forecast over the northern Utah, and northern and central Colorado mountains. - The weather dries out Saturday into early next week with temperatures gradually warming back to 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1038 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

The forecast remains on track for a strengthening upper-level trough currently located over northern Nevada to slide eastward towards the Intermountain West over the next 24 hours. Precipitation chances increase from west to east Friday afternoon/evening as a cold front and modest uptick in mositure (130-150% of normal) move across the forecast area. There will likely be some convective enhancement within this band of precipitation, so expect rapidly deteriorating travel conditions during this timeframe. The northern and central mountains will see the brunt of these travel impacts, but as temperatures fall behind the front, even the valleys may receive some light snow.

The coverage of snow showers increases Friday morning as low pressure slides through north of the I-70 corridor. With cold air in place behind the front and moisture wrapping into the low, late Thursday night into Friday morning is when we expect a bulk of the accumulation to pile up. In total, 4-10" is expected across the northern and central mountains. The San Juans are projected to pick up 2-6". Valleys may pick up a light dusting to a couple inches of snow. Please visit weather.gov/gjt/winter for the latest snowfall forecast in your area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1038 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Potential vorticity/dynamic trop field shows energy continuing to channelize as the pattern aloft shears apart between a retrograding low to the Southwest and departing trough to the Northeast. This will keep weak ascent over the area Friday night into Saturday as a more defined col pattern sets up across the 4 Corners. Orographics will be limited in the setup but cold air aloft leads to steeper afternoon lapse rates and lingering moisture looks to keep some light mountain showers/flurries in place through sunset on Saturday. Accumulations look negligible at this point in time but the clouds will likely limit a full warm up...but overall it will be much warmer than Friday. Temperatures will continue to climb through early next week until we return to some 10 to 15 degrees above normal...which seems to be normal this winter. The remainder of the forecast looks to be trending drier side even though the blended model is holding onto some chance PoPs going into Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 432 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

A winter storm arrives this morning, bringing impacts to most terminals. As storms begin to move over beginning as soon as 15Z for Utah terminals, and as soon as 22Z for Colorado terminals, vis may decrease to MVFR or IFR. Cigs could lower below ILS breakpoints at KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KGJT, KMTJ, KTEX, and KGUC, and KHDN with higher elevation terminals most likely to reach these thresholds. Mountain obscuration will be an additional concern. We expect for these impacts to continue throughout the TAF period and beyond.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Friday for COZ004-009-013. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight MST Friday night for COZ010. UT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 PM MST Friday for UTZ023.