textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions persist through the weekend, with temperatures nearly 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Light precipitation or flurries will be possible on the mountains Friday night through Saturday as a batch of moisture works through but impacts will be minimal to none.

- A pattern shift to cooler and wetter conditions looks to develop by Tuesday and is likely to persist though much of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 217 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Status quo for the short term period though a few more clouds will be mixed into the equation beginning late tomorrow as a batch of higher level moisture works through. Otherwise day and warm conditions stay in place with highs topping out some 15 to 20 degrees above normal tomorrow afternoon. Mainly clear skies will keep the cold pools radiating efficiently with some moderation expected tomorrow night with the addition of clouds. This mositure being pulled through on southerly flow is more than we have had in while but not looking overly anomalous. With the extremely dry low layers currently in place there needs to be a robust and prolonged period of lift to get this down the surface in form of precipitation. So expect mainly thicker cloud cover and virga moving through though wouldn't be surprised to see a few flurries over the southern high peaks by sunrise on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 217 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

The bottom line up front is a cooler and wetter pattern will be developing by Tuesday until further notice. The 5 to 7 day precipitation anomalies in the ensembles are slightly positive for many of our mountain locations as temperatures settle back toward normal. However looking at the latest model clusters the finer details are more convoluted today as the northern and southern streams fight for dominance over the mid latitudes of the West. The potential for splitting systems through the week look to be a challenge on exact storm track as well. As we head into the late week/weekend period a larger more dominant northern stream trough does look favored to develop over the West which evolves into a long wave trough over NOAM beyond that. A noticeable change showing up today is the progression of the cold front on Tuesday at the forefront of this changing pattern. This front does not look to make as much progress into the southern CWA as it did 24 hours ago as stronger upstream troughing leads to stronger southerly flow over the Intermountain West. This upstream trough is then showing signs of splitting the energy as it moves inland with the stronger energy dropping south. We'll see how this trends over the next several days before placing any chips on the board. So the last word is mainly dry and warm over the weekend becomes more unsettled and cooler as we go through the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 932 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Expect VFR conditions with mostly light diurnal winds and mostly clear skies through the TAF period. The exceptions will be some stronger nocturnal down-slope winds near 10 kts at KHDN and KMTJ.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.