textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain and thunderstorms will impact western Colorado and portions of eastern Utah tomorrow.

- Warmer and drier conditions arrive for the weekend

- Another push of moisture arrives by early next week and may bring widespread moderate to heavy precipitation through midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1039 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A large precipitation shield has been lifting northward through the CWA this evening associated with a mid level circulation the models have handled fairly well the past few days. The last piece to lift through will occur on Friday as an strong upstream system arriving to the PacNW coast kicks a trough out of the Desert Southwest and across the Rockies. There will be a battle between clouds and sun on Friday but expect a transition to convective mode by the afternoon behind lingering morning stratiform rainfall. Instability remains moderate along and if all the CAPE can be realized and then released, some stronger storms can be expected. Heavy rainfall...small hail and gusty out flow winds will all be threats. Flat ridging moves in overnight into Saturday leaving a much drier and warmer forecast in place to start the weekend. The remainder of the forecast gets a bit more interesting and thus challenging. A stronger upstream trough arrives on the Pacific coast Sunday afternoon...pushing the ridge east of the Rockies and backing the upper flow to the southwest over the Great Basin. Moisture from a pair of tropical systems...including the weakening Polo...will be drawn into the southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough. PWATs will again return to 150-200 percent of normal over our area by early Monday and bring the start of another wet period through at least midweek. If this trough slows, any moisture could be increased and the duration longer into the week. The GFS has been been consistently the more progressive and thus drier solution. Ensembles and even the cluster solutions have been inconsistent on how to handle the moisture and upstream trough so confidence remains low on a final solution attm. There will be an uptick in precipitation from Sunday afternoon into early next week. Whether this will be a significant/anomalous event for the 4 Corners region is yet to be determined. Stay tuned for later forecasts as this develops.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Widespread showers will continue across must of western Colorado with a few thunderstorms possible after 18Z. Periods of MVFR conditions may occur near stronger showers as ceilings and visbilities decrease. The best chances for low ceilings will be mountain TAF sites that may see prolonged MVFR conditions. Brief IFR conditions cannot be completely ruled out either due to those lower ceilings. Conditions will improve at times between showers. Overall, expect variable flight conditions through the period with the greatest impacts over the San Juans and central mountains.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.