textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds and warm temperatures are the story for the remainder of week and the weekend. Northern valleys may see some gusts reach 40 mph at times.

- Anomalously warm temperatures close to 20 degrees above normal move in by the end of the week, with many locations seeing near- record breaking warmth.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Winds are the main story for the next couple days. Behind the cold front that moved north to south through the region overnight, look for northwesterly winds through Wednesday and temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than Tuesday across the northern areas and five to ten degrees cooler down south. Though the northwesterly flow aloft remains strong, about 50 to 70 kts at H500, the cooler air will limit these winds mixing down to the surface. That being said, orographics will still help this mixing on the southern flank of higher terrain, particularly the Uncompahgre, the San Juans and the higher terrain and mountain valleys of the northern and central mountains where winds will gust 30 to 40 mph through the afternoon. Skies remain mostly clear through the short term with a ridge building in from the southwest raising H500 heights 80 to 100 meters in 24 hours that, combined with the diurnal heating, will warm temperatures Thursday 10 to 15 degrees across the northern areas and five to ten degrees across the south. With the warmer temperatures Thursday, expect more efficient mixing resulting in northwest winds gusting 15 to 25 mph in the lower valleys south of I-70 with gusts to 35 mph on the southern slopes of higher terrain, and winds gusting 25 to 35 mph north of I-70. The peaks of the northern, and even the central mountains will see gusts of 60 to 70 mph.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The location of the jet stream will keep gusty winds in the forecast for the foreseeable future. The northern valleys will be favored with the strongest gusts as they'll be the closest to the jet. Plenty of mixing and a tightening pressure gradient will both aid in these stronger surface winds. A jet streak will move over the CWA on Saturday which will cause an uptick in speeds for the entire area. As of now, it looks like Saturday and Sunday will be the windiest days. Dry conditions will remain in place with relative humidities dropping to the mid-teens for SE Utah and SW Colorado and with the gusty winds, fire weather concerns will increase. Having said that, fuels are not anticipated to be critical so fire weather highlights won't be needed. Expect very warm temperatures through Saturday as highs remain anywhere from 10 to 15...maybe close to 20 degrees in some spots...above climatological normals. As previously mentioned, highs in the low to mid 70s for the Grand Valley towards Moab are possible with low 80s possible in portions of Southeast Utah.

Heading into the weekend, a passing wave will brush our northern and central mountains Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Unfortunately, available moisture is limited and though lift will be maximized as that area will be under the left exit region of the jet, QPF and snowfall amounts will be on the low side. Might see a few inches for the highest elevations of the Park Range and little elsewhere. Models are also picking up on some orographics bringing some light precip to the northern mountains Monday but don't anticipate any snow accumulation. Highs will drop by about 10 degrees Sunday (maybe a bit more if MOS guidance is to be believed) but as high pressure builds in for next week, so too will temperatures increase.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1115 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Elevated westerly to northwesterly winds will continue through much of the period, with gusts of 20-30 knots possible through 12z. Gusts are expected to relax between 12z and 18z, but will pick up again during the afternoon hours. Light rain or snow showers will be possible for KEGE, KASE, and KHDN through 12z. Ceilings will flirt with breakpoints during this period, but skies will rapidly clear after 12z. VFR conditions will prevail, though brief drops to MVFR will be possible with any showers at the above mentioned sites.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.