textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild temperatures continue across the region, with highs 5-15 degrees above normal with potentially record- breaking temperatures on Monday.

- A weak disturbance brings additional snow to the higher elevations of the Northern/Central Mountains beginning Sunday. - Mild conditions continue through late next week with additional snowfall for mountain locales around 9-10,000 feet.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1009 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

A large swath of northwesterly flow is draped across the majority of the CONUS west of the Mississippi River thanks to a ridge centered near the Baja Peninsula. The stronger upper- level jet is situated well to our north, but a more mild jet streak is overhead per the 00Z upper air analysis. Models are inconsistent in how efficient mixing will be, so it remains to be seen just how gusty Friday afternoon's winds will get. Regardless, the mountains and higher elevation valleys should expect some breezy conditions tomorrow. Aside from these winds and partly cloudy skies, conditions will be calm tomorrow and high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1009 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

On Saturday, a plume of moisture ejects from a low pressure off the coast of California and pushes into our region. Not much forcing will accompany the moisture other than a detached jet streak, so it may only result in orographic showers for the higher terrain. Right now the northern and central mountains are favored. Temperatures when this moisture arrives will be more like mid April, therefore look for snow levels above 8 kft at the least. Those showers continue into Sunday as the plume continues to spread across the area. On Monday, the low pressure makes landfall and begins moving inland. This causes a weak ridge to build over us and conditions to warm and dry out for a brief period. In fact, temperatures forecasts for Monday are pushing record values. There is still some model disagreement on the strength and track of the low pressure as it moves into the area. Although, there is consistency that this looks to occur late Monday into Tuesday. The low pressure will result in increased shower activity, but the question is where for now. Instability will probably play a role in shower development as well. The air mass associated with this system in not very cold so do not expect snow levels to drop that much. So we could see rain or a mix for many locations once again. The pattern does appear to remain active into late next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 436 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Mid level cloud coverage will increase during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will be light at most sites, but stronger afternoon gusts are possible at KEGE, KDRO, KGUC, and KHDN. VFR conditions will prevail.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.