textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Rivers across southwest CO and southeast UT remain rain swollen due to runoff. The San Juan River at Pagosa Springs remains in major flood stage.

- Light rain below 10000 feet will continue, with snow above. Winter weather highlights continue for the mountains.

- Drier conditions return Tuesday with a brief transitory ridge of high pressure.

- Another weak disturbance will pass through Wednesday with scattered showers and light snow, including a few isolated thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

The potent stream of atmospheric river moisture has begun to lift from the region this afternoon. Remnant moisture wrapping behind the front, along with cold air, is producing light rain and mountain snow across the region. While precipitation rates are expected to remain light, runoff in area streams will continue today and beyond as the exceptional volume of rainfall continues to run off the mountains. Numerous flood products remain in effect, along with winter highlights for our mountains, where snow will get a chance to accumulate this afternoon under cooler temperatures. Freezing temperatures in the mountains tonight will lead to some slick travel conditions on mountain passes, as precipitation begins to taper this evening. Snow will continue to taper southwest to northeast tonight, with the northern mountains finally drying out sometime around daybreak Tuesday.

Cooler and drier conditions return Tuesday, with area temperatures running around 5 degrees below normal. Some overdue sunshine can be expected across much of the region. Ridging will be short lived, as another disturbance works across the Great Basin Wednesday. While moisture remains unimpressive with this feature, a few showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon. Given the saturated conditions in place, this commands more attention than otherwise is expected with a disturbance of this stature. The mountains should pick up another couple inches of snow too, as cooler temperatures greet this storm's arrival.

Models continue to sell broad high pressure building across the region to close out the week. This should help streamflows and soils to dry out. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of climatology, but a slight warm up is expected this weekend ahead of a potential pattern shift early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1031 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Showers will continue to impact TAF sites west of the UT/CO border this afternoon and evening. For most locations, these showers will be all rain, and will lead to brief periods of lowered ceilings and visibility less than 6SM. For KTEX and KASE, snow will mix in and will lead to even lowered conditions. KTEX is currently under LIFR conditions, and will remain so through roughly 00z, before gradually improving. KASE/KEGE/KRIL will continue to remain below ILS breakpoints, and will bounce between VFR and MVFR/IFR conditions through 00z. Activity will taper off and ceilings will gradually rise after 00z, with all sites expected to be VFR with at most high level clouds by 12z tomorrow. Winds will be northwesterly this afternoon and evening, becoming lighter and terrain driven after 06z.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1200 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Moisture has begun to taper over the region. However, substantial hydrologic concerns persist due to runoff continuing to clear flooded stem streams.

The primary point of concern remains the stem rivers flowing into the San Juan River. At Pagosa Springs, major flooding continues, with the river not expected to return below action stage until Tuesday sometime. Flooding Warnings continue for the Mancos, La Plata, Animas, and Navajo Rivers as well, due to excessive runoff. This remains a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) thanks to the widespread impacts across the region.

Areal flood products outside of highlighted river basins will continue for southeast UT and southwest CO to account for continued runoff to clear from the stem streams.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ004. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ009- 010-012-013. Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ018- 019. Flood Watch until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ019-021>023. Flood Watch from 6 PM to 11 PM MST this evening for COZ019- 021>023. UT...Flood Watch until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ022-028-029. Flood Watch from 6 PM to 11 PM MST this evening for UTZ022-028- 029.