textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Record heat and predominately dry conditions persist through the week and coming weekend.

- Red Flag Warnings are in place near the Four Corners today and in northwestern Colorado tomorrow. Localized critical fire weather conditions will occur elsewhere across the region.

UPDATE

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Allowed the Red Flag Warning for the Four Corners area to expire as the winds died down. Look for winds to increase again tomorrow as heating mixes the winds aloft down to the surface. Also down graded the Extreme Heat Warning in southeastern Utah to a Heat Advisory for tomorrow a temperatures cool a few degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Models are in agreement keeping the high pressure anchored over the Desert Southwest through this week and into next week. It's a tough pattern to break, and looks to keep the heat on and dry air in place for the foreseeable future. August has come in like a lion setting new record highs for the Grand Valley each of the last three days, and it looks like this trend will continue through the weekend. The ensembles were looking to shift the high to the east over Oklahoma the other day, opening the door to the moisture over Mexico to move north, but are now backing off that scenario 'til late next week. It's just hard to say this far out. We'll just have to see how this plays out. A Heat Advisory is still in effect for tomorrow for southeastern Utah extending east into the Grand Valley for the continued triple digit temperatures though they do cool a couple degrees from Monday's highs as a trough passes to the north to squash the high a bit, and smoke from the Utah fires will reduce the solar insolation. Temperatures look to cool yet another couple degrees Wednesday before warming back up as the high to the southwest builds in over eastern Utah and Western Colorado. The trough to the north dipping south increases the winds aloft that will mix down through the afternoon, and with the dry air in place across the region and the hot temp driving the relative humidity into the single digits, Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Fire Weather zones 201 (Rio Blanco and southern Moffat Counties), 205 (Flat Tops and Grand Mesa), and 207 (the Four Corners in southwestern Colorado) from 1 PM to 7 PM. There are indications that the Colorado mountains may see continued critical fire weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday, but the forecast winds are barely meeting criteria. Held off on any watches for these areas to see how this develops. If the high does shift up over the region, winds will drop off. Stay tuned on this. Even with the winds dropping off, with the hot temperatures and very dry conditions in place, there is still increased fire risks. If you're out in the mountains, exercise extra care to prevent any fire starts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 507 AM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected. Winds may gust upwards of 30 mph in the afternoon. Wildfire smoke from Utah may restrict the visibility at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Hot and dry conditions will persist through the week and coming weekend. Tomorrow, critical fire weather conditions are expected near the Four Corners, and in northwestern Colorado. Model guidance is still inconsistent regarding gust speeds and locations of the strongest gusts, but coverage is anticipated to be sufficient enough to develop large swaths of Red Flag conditions, hence fire weather highlights are in effect tomorrow afternoon. Localized Red Flag conditions may develop elsewhere across the CWA as well. Wetting rains are not expected throughout the work week and into the weekend.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ202-205-207. Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ006. UT...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027-029.