textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms for the San Juans this afternoon.

- Near record high temperatures today and Saturday.

- Hot, dry, windy conditions will develop again Saturday, Fire Weather Watches are currently out for much of eastern UT and western CO for for that day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Models are in good agreement with Satellite imagery and with each other tracking the weak low across Baja and northern Mexico overnight and Friday pushing it into east Texas by Saturday. Behind this low, a ridge builds in over the Desert Southwest and up into eastern Utah and Western Colorado today that will warm temperatures across the region to 10-15 degrees above normal for early June. Look for near record highs today and Saturday with much of the lower desert valleys of southeastern Utah hitting triple digits. With the ridging overhead, winds will be lighter today with most areas only gusting 15 to 20 mph through the afternoon.

By Saturday, a deep low drops into the Pacific Northwest setting up a longwave trough along the West Coast. At the same time, ridging builds over the Plains States pushing the eastern trough off the East Coast to form a weak omega blocking pattern across the CONUS that looks to continue through most of next week. This pattern puts the region under a strong southwesterly flow with gusty southwest winds each day lasting well in to the evening hours. Temperatures will cool about five degrees Sunday onward with the trough setting up to our west, but we will still be well above normal. With the hot, and extremely dry conditions, expect critical fire weather conditions daily through the lower elevations across the region from Saturday through at least mid next week. For the near term, a Fire Weather Watch is in place for Saturday from noon through 9 PM for all but the mountain zones of eastern Utah and Western Colorado.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 539 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Winds are currently light and terrain driven across the area. This afternoon gusts up to 15 to 20 kts are expected at most sites. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over the southern and central Colorado mountains after 18Z, but TAF site impacts are unlikely. However, the highest chances are at KTEX. Concerns are primarily gusty outflow winds and lightning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1111 PM MDT MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

By Saturday, we will be positioned between two large upper level features leading to strong southwesterly flow aloft, eventually mixing down towards the surface. This will lead to the return of hot, dry, windy conditions. Confidence is increasing for Saturday to be the next day for widespread critical fire weather concerns. Therefore, Fire Weather Watches are currently in effect for much of eastern Utah and western Colorado for Saturday (12PM-9PM). A blocking pattern looks to be setting up to keep this pattern in place through the weekend and well into next week producing critical fire weather conditions each day.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292. UT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for UTZ486-487-490-491.