textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisories are expected to trail off this morning, but mountain roadways could still be challenging for the commute.

- Skies clear and high temperatures today trend down 5-10 degrees.

- Another winter storm comes into view Tuesday afternoon into Thursday, with more snowfall for mountains.

- Cool, unsettled conditions stick around into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 436 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Canceled Winter Weather Advisories for UTZ028 and COZ017, as dry and subsident flow has squashed any remaining snowfall this morning. Orographic showers continue on the terrain of western Colorado, with many mountain roads still snow covered on CDOT cameras. Morning commuters will want to exercise caution on mountain roadways and a few lower roadways that received snowfall overnight in the wake of the front, then refroze under clear skies.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 311 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Clear and cold conditions are sweeping in behind the cold front this morning. Orographic snow showers continue on many of our mountains this morning, but accumulations are negligible at this point. Some area roadways remain snow covered in the cold air settling across the region. Morning commuters should check local conditions before setting out for work. Winter Weather Advisories will likely drop off much sooner than the noon timeline given initially, as the drier and subsident air mass pushes into the region. Sunny skies should return across the region by lunch, with some stray cloud cover hanging on the mountains into afternoon. Winds will remain north and west today, with temperatures 5-10 degrees colder in one of the coldest air masses of the season. As skies clear out tonight, this should deliver frigid overnight lows to our mountain basins surrounded by fresh snowpack.

Quiet weather will be short-lived, as we queue up another cold front for Tuesday and beyond. This one looks very similar to yesterday's system. An arcing ridge in the Pacific, offshore of the CONUS, is sending a battery of digging jet maxes down the PACNW into the Great Basin. This comes along with the deep cold pool oozing out of Continental Canada. This bodes well for snow production from any moisture we can tap. While early indications for Tuesday and beyond are not as bullish on moisture as this last system, there will still be measurable snow for the mountains. Light snow across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado initiates Tuesday morning, then spreads south by afternoon. At the moment, this looks good for a couple inches of new snow on the mountains by sunset Tuesday evening.(and more later) Afternoon highs will trend down a couple degrees again on Tuesday beneath gray skies and additional precipitation.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 158 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

And the wave train doesn't end as we look upstream Tuesday. An upper level trough will be located over western Montana and eastern Idaho early Tuesday. Ahead of this feature will be a shortwave that will just clip our CWA bringing some light snow to the eastern Uintas, and northern valleys and mountains. Don't look for much accumulation though, that won't start until the main upper level trough and the next weak, cold front pushes through. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with this system even this far out but that's not to say we couldn't see some changes over the next few days. That being said, the forecast is calling for 2 to 5 inches over the northern mountains, Flat Tops and portions of the central mountains with lesser amounts south. Previous, similar systems have come in with amounts like these and then as we get closer to the event, amounts bump up so there's always that chance. Either way, much of the CWA will see some form of precip Tuesday morning through Thursday.

And wouldn't you know, the wave train continues Friday into the weekend as pieces of energy move through northwesterly flow. You folks up in Steamboat Springs, you know what this means. Favorable orographics, not to mention stronger waves moving through, over a prolonged period may bring some decent snowfall amounts to the Elkheads and Park Ranges. We are still a ways out, however, so take this with a grain of salt. Still, something to look forward to. As far as high temperatures are concerned, they will be on the cool side with highs generally below more normal early December values across the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 436 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Breakpoint conditions at mountain terminals are expected to erode as the sun comes up this morning. Snow showers are expected to wind down across the region and VFR conditions return by afternoon for terminals. Winds remain light and northerly to westerly behind the cold front today. Some high cloud cover begins to invade late in this TAF period, but breakpoint ceilings are not expected.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today for COZ004-009- 010-012-013-018-019. UT...None.