textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions develop this afternoon with winds gusting up to 35 mph, relative humidities around 10 percent, and near-record temperatures.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms favoring the higher terrain move in this afternoon, continue overnight. Primary threats include strong outflow winds and dry lightning.

- Widespread critical fire weather concerns return on Saturday ahead of an approaching low pressure system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ISOLATED STORMS TODAY:

Strengthening southwesterly will promote gusty conditions this afternoon. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph will join forces with the our resident warm and dry airmass, resulting in critical fire weather conditions where fuels are deemed critical. Please see the Fire Weather section below for more details.

A surge of mid-level moisture could produce isolated to scattered showers starting in eastern Utah this afternoon, spreading east over the southern mountains overnight. A few stronger storms can't be ruled out due some marginal CAPE, strengthening wind shear, and dry surface levels. Strong outflow winds and lightning will be the primary threats this afternoon, with dry lightning becoming the primary threat over the San Juans tonight.

LOOKING AHEAD:

Broad, zonal flow sets up across the region on Thursday and Friday. This will produce some additional gusty winds against the Divide both days. Marginal moisture advects in as well, but for now, this looks to only produce scattered clouds and maybe an isolated shower or two along the terrain.

Strong, southwesterly flow ahead of a trough digging into the Great Basin on Saturday will likely produce another day of widespread critical fire weather conditions. A frontal boundary will drop into the region later Sunday, producing precipitation chances for our northern counties. This system will also help moderate temperatures by early next leading to below normal to normal forecasted temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 551 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this evening, forming on the terrain and quickly collapsing in the dry air blanketing the valleys. This will produce some violent outflow winds around terminals. Included TEMPO conditions for showers and gusty winds at a few terminals this evening. Ceilings remain mid to high based, so not expecting breakpoint conditions to develop at the airfields. Showers will continue to clear the west side of the Divide early Thursday morning, with terminals returning to VFR conditions by daybreak.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Red Flag Warnings remain in place this afternoon thanks to amplifying hot, dry, and windy conditions. Additionally, afternoon convection could produce gusty outflow winds and isolated dry thunderstorms due to the extremely dry surface conditions across the region.

Winds remain gusty along the west side of the Divide tomorrow resulting in a Red Flag Warning for COZ293. Elsewhere, a very dry airmass moves in (RH in the single digits to low teens), but winds won't be as strong. Watch out for localized critical fire weather conditions.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202- 290-292. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ293. UT...None.