textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect today for SW Colorado up into the Gunnison Basin.

- Fire Weather Watches for Friday have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings for much of the forecast area as dry conditions and gusty winds return.

- A chance for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast Saturday and Sunday increasing the risk for new fire starts.

- High pressure builds in next week bringing a return to well above normal temperatures, gusty winds, and dry conditions. Critical fire weather conditions look to continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Seasonal temperatures have returned, albeit briefly, thanks to a dry, cold front that moved through yesterday. As expected, some gusty winds have materialized with the strongest occurring down south and across central regions of the CWA where Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. Zonal flow then sets up across the region for Friday as high temperatures jump back to above normal values. These temperatures will allow deeper mixing to occur and will bring some gusty winds to the surface, similar to what we've seen over the last few days. Widespread wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common bringing yet another critical fire weather day. More on that below. On Saturday, high pressure to our south will start pumping some moisture into the area and may allow some very isolated showers/storms Saturday afternoon. Better chances (50 to 60%) exist Sunday as a weak wave works on this moisture and brings more showers/storms to the San Juans and areas south. As previously mentioned, this will bear watching thanks to dry lightning concerns. Temperatures will drop Sunday into Monday thanks to the increased moisture and clouds. However, high pressure builds in for the remainder of the week bringing a return to sunny skies, well above normal temperatures, and some gusty afternoon winds. Critical fire weather concerns will remain high.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Clear to mostly sunny skies will continue today. Some gusty winds of 20 to 30 kts will be possible today especially KDRO, KGUC and KTEX though some higher gusts can't be ruled out for other TAF sites. VFR conditions remain in place for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1227 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Lighter winds and cooler temperatures have moved in across the area but post frontal winds and well mixed conditions remain across SW Colorado and the Gunnison Basin. Critical fire weather conditions remain in those areas so Red Flag Warnings remain in effect today.

Tomorrow, stronger upper level winds move back in while temperatures increase 5 to 10 degrees. Widespread gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph are expected so the Fire Weather Watches for much of the area have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings. Some moisture works into the San Juans on Saturday and moves northward Sunday and may promote shower and thunderstorm development. The antecedent dry conditions could prove useful for new fire starts should any lightning occur this weekend. Shower and thunderstorms chances for the mountains continue Monday. Relative humidity could see some improvement and temperatures trend down some with cloud cover, but critical fire weather is likely to continue for many locales. High pressure returns Tuesday and beyond and with dry conditions, gusty winds and well above normal temperatures in the forecast, critical fire weather conditions look to continue for next week.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ200>203- 205-207-290>295.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ207-293- 295.

UT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Friday for UTZ486-487.