textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated storms are expected today. A few strong thunderstorms capable of localized heavy rainfall and small hail are still possible, particularly along the higher terrain.

- Terrain-driven showers and thunderstorms remain possible through at least early next week.

- Temperatures will gradually increase each day through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 958 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

SOME ISOLATED STORM CHANCES REMAIN FOR TODAY:

The dominant flow aloft will be mainly southwesterly around the western edge of the high pressure system to our east through at least the weekend. This, in turn, will keep moisture advection around. Hence, precipitation chances remain in the forecast for the foreseeable future, particularly for the higher terrain.

The last few days have seen appreciable moisture for this region of the country, but storms have been short lived due to a lack of shear and dense cloud cover filling in during the afternoons. This could very well be the case today as well. Current satellite imagery this morning depicts denser cloud cover over the San Juans and parts of southeast Utah, with clearing everywhere else. This will help paint a better picture for storm chances this afternoon, with higher storm chances occurring where daytime heating was allowed to materialize. There is also a possibility for marginally increased shear this afternoon as a mild jet streak traverses through the southwesterly flow. Although, ensembles show falling PWATs for much of the region beginning today and lasting through the weekend.

All that being said, most stronger storms capable of small hail and localized heavy rainfall (or the flash flooding concerns that come with it) are expected to stay confined to the high terrain today. As previously mentioned, if daytime heating dominates in the lower elevation areas, that may be enough for storms to initialize over those areas and cannot be ruled out completely at this point. All vulnerable areas (including burn scars) across the entire CWA will still be at risk of flash flooding or debris flows today in spite of the more localized nature of storm coverage.

WEEKEND + BEYOND OUTLOOK:

Even as moisture is on the steady decline, southwesterly flow in combination with moisture advection will be enough to support daily precipitation chances around the mountains this weekend. Storm impacts appear to be on the milder side as upper level support seems weak. Although, keep checking the forecast as changes are possible when it comes to these patterns.

As we move into next week, more uncertainties exist regarding precipitation chances as models begin to diverge from each other. Otherwise, look for temperatures to gradually increase each day into next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the evening. Primary concerns with this activity are lightning and brief drops to MVFR conditions if stronger thunderstorms move over TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Gusts up to 25 kts are possible at a few sites this afternoon, especially where there are nearby showers and thunderstorms.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.