textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions persist through the week, with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal.

- Breezy winds are likely Tuesday afternoon over the high terrain with a few light mountain snow flurries. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 225 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Under high pressure, skies remain mostly clear, with light winds and mild temperatures. Highs today will be 10-15 degrees above normal, with some areas north of I-70 approaching 20 degrees above normal. As clouds increase tonight ahead of a weak shortwave, lows will be exceptionally mild with many locations seeing low temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal. The weak wave passes through tomorrow, bringing continued clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. Though highs drop a few degrees, most locations remain 10-15 degrees above normal. With clearing skies and a cooler airmass tomorrow night, overnight lows drop closer to normal...but still 5-15 degrees above normal throughout the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 225 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

By Tuesday the next high pressure system will have built into the Great Basin with a cutoff low over Baja in a Rex block formation that pushes the active weather well to our north along the Canadian Border before it descends to our east onto the Plains. A shortwave drops down along the Front Range Tuesday, brushing the northern and central mountains, but with limited available moisture and right exit region of the jet overhead, there is only a very slight chance for light orographic snow possibly along the Divide with little if any accumulation. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny across eastern Utah and Western Colorado. Temperatures will cool to about five degrees above normal in the Colorado mountains through Wednesday while the more western parts of the region will remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

A deep low that descends out of the Bering Sea into the Eastern Pacific early in the week will plow into the Rex block later in the week shifting the high to the east over the region and warming temperatures to near record highs Thursday through Saturday. The model solutions diverge through the latter half of the week and the ensembles do little to shed light on the longer term forecast other than the near record heat. Of interest, the low at the base of the Rex block does look to pull some subtropical moisture north into the Desert Southwest and the Great Basin, but at this time looks to result in mostly high clouds. The ensemble means tend to hold the Rex block in place, but some members do bring a shortwave system across the region Saturday or Sunday. Confidence is very low that we will see any precipitation from this system. The earlier model runs that were hinting that the deep trough would push through late Sunday into early next week are now pushing this trough out to mid to late next week (Rex blocks tend to "block" the weather). Wouldn't be surprised if this scenario keeps pushing out another week. But don't loose hope; these patterns do end, and maybe then we will see a wetter spring pattern develop.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 426 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light and terrain driven. Cloud coverage will increase overnight.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.