textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool, dry conditions remain in place through the weekend.

- Cloud cover will be on increase Sunday evening and beyond.

- Deeper moisture with a more organized system arrives mid-week, with unsettled weather through week's end.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1059 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

CONTINUED COOL THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMUP INTO EARLY THIS WEEK:

Clouds are beginning to increase from the southwest this evening as the high pressure shifts eastward allowing some moisture to work in the southwest flow. A weak shortwave disturbance will track through the Four Corners Sunday allowing for some isolated light showers to form over the San Juans. This continues into Monday with better coverage of showers across the central and southern mountains. Very little in the way of forcing will lend itself to light precipitation amounts with a dusting of snow possible above treeline in the San Juans. Temperatures will near normal Sunday with a bit of WAA heading into Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a deep closed low that will dive down the west coast and close off over SoCal.

WET WEEK AHEAD:

High pressure will be positioned to the southeast over Texas with the low off the SoCal coast, allowing deeper moisture to advect northward through southeast Utah and southwest Colorado Wednesday through Thursday. PWAT anomalies climb towards 300 percent of normal during this time, which equates to PWAT of 0.75 to 1 inch across much of the area with PWAT above an inch over the Four Corners. Showers become more widespread Wednesday and Thursday in this moist southwest flow with potential for more substantial rainfall for southern Colorado and southeast Utah. There is also potential for mountain snowfall but it all depends on how much cold air arrives with this low pressure system. Models have not been in great agreement on the depth of cold air and seem to be trending milder as this low lifts across the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday, with the coldest air now across Montana and Wyoming. Much cooler temperatures arrive on the backside of this low Friday into the coming weekend with unsettled conditions in the northwest flow through next Saturday for the mountains. Still a lot of details to work out in the coming days with this system in terms of precipitation amounts and mountain snowfall given the uncertainty with how much cold air arrives with this system. Regardless, it looks to be a wet week ahead.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

High clouds will continue to move in across the area as moisture will return from South. Winds will remain light leaving VFR to prevail at area TAFs. This moisture will lead to isolated showers tomorrow afternoon but coverage is limited enough to omit from forecasts attm.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.