textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record temperatures and gusty winds are expected Monday afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated storms develop Monday evening, mainly north of I-70.

- Rain and snow showers increase in coverage late Monday night into Tuesday with a few inches of mountain snow above 9,000 feet. - Mild conditions continue Wednesday and beyond with additional snowfall for mountain locales above 9,000-10,000 feet.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 850 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

As a low pressure system approaches from the west on Monday southwesterly flow takes over and ushers in slightly warmer air. This will help a few locations flirt with record-high temperatures, but that will be highly dependent on cloud coverage throughout the day. Gusty winds are also expected tomorrow as a low pressure system and it's attendant jet streak spread overhead. There is a high probability for valley wind gusts up to 25-40 mph with mountain wind gusts as high as 55 mph.

As low pressure slides in Monday evening, an uptick in synoptic forcing, moisture and instability will result in rain/snow showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly along and north of the I-70 corridor. Shower coverage increases late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the cold front moves through. This will help to lower snow levels and provide extra forcing for ascent. The showers begin to diminish on Tuesday evening as trough exits the region. By then, this mild, quick-hitting system is expected to produce 2-6" of new snow along the spine of the Park Range and 1-4" over 9,000 feet for the eastern Uintas and central mountains. Minor impacts from the snow are possible at pass level during the overnight and early morning hours.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 850 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

A busier, although not particularly impactful, progressive pattern takes hold Wednesday. Transitory ridging behind Tuesday's weak cold front will rebound afternoon highs 5 to 10 degrees. This is good enough for another day of temperatures well over early March climatology. Nothing new here. Abundant sunshine will make for another round of spring-like conditions. An open wave dipping into the PACNW taps into some colder air that will send another weak cold front through the area on Thursday. This will produce some additional mountain snow and valley rain. Snow levels lower more significantly with this system, but antecedent warm conditions continue to plague snow level forecast expectations. It looks like the northern and central mountains could see 3-5 inches of new snow Thursday and Friday, with some of it getting chewed up during daytime hours Thursday. Down south in the San Juans, it's looking pretty meager with 1 to 3 inches. The deeper cold air dials back highs Friday to near normal for a change. This looks to spell out the best snow rates Friday. Precipitation tapers off by early Saturday morning. Models suggest the positively tilted trough gets stretched Friday and beyond by the zonal Polar Jet well to our north, leaving a pinched off low to form over northern Baja. Spaghetti plots stay somewhat aligned with this solution at the moment. This could place us in a quiet, warm'ish, col northeast of the cutoff Baja low next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 439 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

High and mid level clouds are moving across the area. Most high level cloud cover will move out of the area from northwest to southeast throughout the day, but mid level clouds will persist in the northern half of the region, and near the high terrain. Strong wind gusts are expected at TAF sites today, with the strongest expected gusts being 20 to 30 kts. Tonight rain and mountain snow is expected to develop across northern and central areas, but most TAF sites impacts are not expected until 06Z. PROB30 groups have been included at KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KHDN, and KVEL.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.