textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- A broad ridge will remain over the West for much of the next week keeping a mainly dry and mild pattern in place.

- The exception will be during the mid-week period when snow will spread across the northern...central and portions of the southern mountains of Colorado. Rain or a mix at times is expected in the adjacent valleys.

-The higher elevations of the northern Colorado mountains have the highest probability of 6 or more inches of snow. The mild airmass may limit hazardous travel conditions to early Wednesday and Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 105 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

The high pressure ridge across the Western States will dominate the weather pattern over eastern Utah and Western Colorado overnight into tomorrow, but a shortwave system currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest will drop down over the northern Colorado mountains by tomorrow evening bringing impacts mostly to the Park Range. Issued a Winter Storm Warning for 8-16 inches snow and winds gusting 60 mph above 9,000 on the Park and West Elk Mountains from 6 PM Tuesday to 9PM Wednesday. Expect hazardous travel on Rabbit Ears Pass and other mountain roads during this time. Also issued a Winter Weather Advisory above 10,000 feet beginning at midnight tomorrow night to midnight Wednesday night for four to eight inches snow possible and wind gusts to 60 mph on the Flat Tops, and on the Mosquito Range west to the Elk Mountains. Expect slick road conditions and periods of low visibility on Vail Pass and other mountain roads in these areas.

Temperatures will run near normal in the northern and central Colorado mountains today and tomorrow under mostly cloudy skies. Elsewhere, skies will be mostly sunny with a few high clouds and temperatures will run five to ten degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 105 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

A 90-100 knot jet will be in place over the northern half of eastern Utah and western Colorado on Wednesday, advecting in anomalously high moisture. Forecast PWAT values, courtesy of ensemble guidance, remain 230-270% of normal. However, forcing is really lacking for much of the residence time of the moisture. We get a little lift from the jet overhead, and westerly to northwesterly flow is favorable for orographic lift in the northern and, to a lesser extent, central Divide mountains. At the tail end of this system, Wednesday afternoon and evening, an elongated lobe of vorticity drops south through the region, with increasing PVA ahead of it. This will enhance already ongoing precipitation in the northern and central mountians, and then help showers develop over the northern San Juans. This will be a quick moving shot of snow, with very minor accumulations in the northern San Juans and some of the further south central mountain ranges. The Park Range will be most favored, with snow totals of 8-16 inches expected. The upper level jet will also bring gusty surface winds to the higher elevations and the northern valleys. Gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible for the lower elevations, and gusts to 60 mph are expected up high. Winds such as these combined with moderate to heavy snow will result in blowing and drifting snow, whiteout conditions, and difficult travel conditions over the passes, especially Vail and Rabbit Eats. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Park and Elkhead Ranges through late Wednesday evening, and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Flat Top, Gore, and Elk ranges through the same period.

Activity comes to an end Thursday morning, as moisture diminishes and ridging reasserts itself over the west. Northwesterly flow aloft, and therefore light orographic showers over the higher elevations, will linger through the end of the day. Elsewhere, look for clearing skies and pleasant conditions. High pressure dominates through the weekend, with temperatures remaining steadily around 10 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 415 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

High cloudiness will continue to move over the area ahead of the next system arriving later on Tuesday. Winds will increase aloft leading to areas of LLWS which will mix out into some of the upper valleys tomorrow afternoon and create afternoon gusts over 25 mph...mainly KEGE and KRIL. Ceilings will begin to lower late in the forecast with a very low probability of light showers at KHDN. Otherwise terrain obscuration will be increasing and then snow across much of the northern and central mountains tomorrow evening.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 9 PM MST Wednesday for COZ004. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to midnight MST Wednesday night for COZ010-013. UT...None.