textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow showers increase in coverage late tonight into Tuesday with a few inches of mountain snow above 9,000 feet. - Mild conditions continue Wednesday and beyond with additional snowfall for mountain locales above 9,000-10,000 feet.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1027 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Winds will still remain breezy at times overnight as the shortwave trough passes through the region across the north. Showers have developed across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado and will continue to mainly affect the northern and central portions of the area through Tuesday morning, increasing in coverage as the cold front and trough pass through. Showers will linger across the northern and central Divide through early Tuesday afternoon before coming to an end as the shortwave trough exits. We will see roughly 2 to 6 inches of new snow along the higher elevations of the eastern Uintas and Park Range while 1 to 4 inches are expected across the remaining northern and central Colorado mountains. This has been consistent with this quick moving system. We could see some minor impacts at pass level overnight into Tuesday morning due to the snow. Temperatures on Tuesday will be quite a bit cooler than the near record high temperatures seen on Monday by about 10 to 15 degrees, so highs on Tuesday will settle around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Still mild for early March but nowhere near record high temperatures. A shortwave ridge of high pressure moves in Wednesday, providing a return to mostly sunny skies as temperatures bounce back to 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1027 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

The roller coaster that is Spring weather will be more than evident in the mid week to early next week forecast. The next digging trough drops into the Intermountain West by Wednesday night leaving Southwest across our CWA. Both major deterministic global models suggest this system will close off a broad low along the NV/UT border by mid-day Thursday...then migrating to the CO/UT border by Friday morning. However as this happens a stronger stream of energy associated with 150+ kt jet is digging into the back of the trough. This serves to split the system into two pieces with the northern extent lifting into the Northern Plains by late Friday and the southern extent digging a retrograding low back toward SoCal. This leaves eastern Utah and western Colorado under the col between systems and essentially blows the precipitation shield apart. As it stands the heaviest precipitation looks to unfold upstream of our CWA before the bulk of the moisture is swept away with the northern stream low. This is not to say we will not get another round of rain/snow but if the closed low could have stalled over the area it could have been so much better. IVT and PWAT trends do not suggest this is a highly anomalous stream of moisture being pulled into this system but there is some colder air and moderate dynamics overlaying frontal lift and orographics. Snow will drop past mountain bases but the northern mountains of Utah and Colorado will have the highest probability of impactful snow amounts. Temperatures remain above normal Thursday as the system moves in then drop below normal in the post frontal environment on Friday. A dry and warming trend then returns for the weekend into early next week when we pop back up to 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1027 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Light precipitation will be a threat to the northern and eastern TAF sites over the next 24 hours as the next system moves through. The KHDN...KEGE...KASE airfields have the highest probability of seeing MVFR to LIFR conditions due to low cigs and visibility impacted by rain/snow and mist. KRIL and KGUC have a low probability of lower flight criteria but will still see ILS conditions at times. Otherwise VFR will prevail at the other TAF sites over the next 24 hours.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.