textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue throughout the week.

- Tuesday looks to be the strongest day for fires with widespread wind gusts generally up to 40 mph, but possibly reaching 50 mph in some areas, primarily in southwestern Colorado.

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect today until 8PM MDT, and Tuesday from noon to 9PM MDT.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Amid the parent longwave trough spread across the western CONUS, two closed lows have split with one sliding off to our northeast and the other descending southwards along the Pacific coast. Mild moisture in the former prompted light showers this morning across the northern CWA, but little additional impacts are expected as the low continues to rise away from our region. Between the two lows, transient ridging has been established, stalling the dry flow across the Great Basin and into our CWA. Further overhead, a moderately strong jet is centered over our region, and with mostly clear skies today, sufficient mixing is again pulling those gusty winds towards the surface. The story remains the same as it has for weeks as a result: hot, dry, and windy.

The jet remains over the region Tuesday and current indications are that winds will see a slight increase as well. The strongest gusts (as strong as 45 mph) are nestled around the Four Corners region, but 25-40 mph gusts will be expected for the majority of the west slope nonetheless. As far as the work week goes, Tuesday marks the most concerning fire weather concerns as a result of these winds, and though conditions become more marginal Wednesday and onwards, we are still staring at elevated to critical fire weather conditions through Friday at least.

Through the week, a small amount of upper level moisture tries to sneak in across northeast Utah with each passing wave through the stalled trough, but is most likely to result in virga showers or a dry thunderstorm or two, producing mainly gusty and erratic winds. Temperatures remain near-normal through the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 510 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Expect VFR conditions across the region through the TAF period. Gusty west to southwest winds will calm to light terrain driven winds around sunset, 02Z, and become gusty southwest winds again around 18Z. Smoke in the area is becoming less of an issue, but did include it in the most likely sites, KASE, KEGE, KGJT, KGUC and KMTJ.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Red Flag conditions are expected through Friday at least before the stagnant trough driving the dry and windy setup finally appears to break down into more zonal flow with weaker winds into the weekend. For most days, fire weather appears marginal to moderate with single-digit relative humidities and gusts around 25-35 mph. The one exception to this looks to be Tuesday as winds ramp up once more. The strongest winds will be aligned along a corridor from the Four Corners to the northern Colorado mountains, generally impacting areas along the Dallas Divide, Paradox Valley, Uncompahgre Plateau, and Flat Tops. The area of particular concern will be centered around the existing Ferris and McCloud fires where gusts may reach 50 mph in some isolated locations. This could prompt locally enhanced fire weather conditions that may result in periods of especially erratic wildfire behavior. In general though, look for gusts to remain below 45 mph Tuesday, yet still strong and critical to fire behavior.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202- 203-205-207-290>295. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ200>203- 205-207-290>294. UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490- 491. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ486-487- 490-491.