textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- High elevation snowfall begins tonight across the Northern and Central mountains, and lingers through early Thursday. Hazardous travel conditions over mountain passes are possible for the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

- The higher elevations of the northern Colorado mountains have the highest probability 12+ inch of snow. The remainder of the northern and central high country looks to be in the 4-8 inch range above 9,000 feet.

- Gusty winds accompany this system, with 50-60 mph gusts expected up high, and 35-45 mph gusts across the northern valleys.

- Warm and quiet conditions return Thursday and last into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 105 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Clouds are on the increase across the region as impressive amounts of remnant AR moisture stream in from the west. PWAT forecasts indicate that values will climb to 250-300% of normal overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. And indeed, the 18z KGJT sounding has shown moisture is already on the increase, with PWATs doubling since last night's 00z sounding. So we have the moisture, but, as mentioned in a number of previous discussions, we're lacking in forcing. A 120+ knot jet lingering along our northern border will provide a smidge of dynamic lift, as well as strong westerly to northwesterly winds in the lower levels. This will favor orographic lift across the northern and central mountains, which will be the main precipitation driver. As such, lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow will be confined to the mountain corridors. This will be a warm as well as wet system, with snow levels remaining between 8500ft and 9500ft for the duration. And the snow that does fall above 9500ft will be of the heavy, wet, sierra cement variety. Most of the snow will fall tonight into tomorrow morning, before tapering off into lighter showers through the afternoon. Road surfaces remain warm, and so most travel impacts will be during the nighttime hours, although tomorrow morning's commute could be messy over the passes. The Park Range remains on track to see 8-16 inches of snow by Thursday morning, with locally higher amounts possible at the highest elevations. The Elkhead, Flat Tops, Gore, and Elk ranges are set to see 4-8 inches of snow during the same time period. High elevation winds will gust 50-60 mph through the period. Winter highlights remain on track. At the tail end of the system, tomorrow afternoon and evening, increasing PVA spreads south, reinvigorating showers over the terrain. These showers will even, briefly, make it into the northern San Juans, where they could pick up an inch or two of fresh snow.

For the remainder of eastern Utah and western Colorado, increased cloud cover and gusty winds will be the only impacts from this system. The northern valleys will see gusts 35-45 mph tomorrow afternoon, while the I-70 corridor and points south could see gusts 20-30 mph. We remain mild, with temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 105 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Thursday through Saturday will see eastern Utah and Western Colorado under a northwesterly flow aloft with ridging along the West Coast and a longwave trough over the Midwestern States. The Alaskan Gulf low that has been feeding shortwave system into the flow continues to spin well to the south off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, cut off from the strong jet to the north. By Saturday, models are in remarkably good agreement with a leaf of the jet picking up this low to eject it to the southeast, making landfall into California late Sunday and dropping into the Desert Southwest Monday into Tuesday.

The last of the shortwaves will brush the northern areas Thursday morning to sweep the moisture out of the region, replacing it with a cool, dry airmass. Snow showers will diminish along the Park Range and the Divide through the Day, ending by late afternoon. Temperatures across the region will run five to ten degrees above the climatological mean for late February. With the ridge building to the west, H500 heights increase 6-800 meters by Friday, warming temperatures another five to eight degrees under clear skies. The flow aloft becomes more westerly Saturday and Sunday as the low off the West Coast starts moving inland. This flow picks up a reservoir of moisture trapped in the Great Basin and pushes it into the northern areas of the region, with light orographic showers developing across the northern mountains Saturday night into Sunday. Though this moisture is significant at close to 300% normal, the lack of upper-level dynamics will limit snowfall in the mountains. As the low drops into the Desert Southwest Monday and Tuesday, the flow aloft becomes southwesterly with the orographic showers shifting more south, with light showers in the central and southern Colorado mountains. No significant precipitation is likely from these showers, but any rain or snow is welcomed. Temperatures remain 10-18 degrees above normal through this period, possibly cooling a few degrees Tuesday as the H500 heights fall with the low moving in to the southwest.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 427 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Dense mid-level clouds are blanketing much of the region as another round of moisture arrives. Cigs are near ILS breakpoints at KASE and KEGE already. Throughout the next 12-18 hours, look for cigs to continue to fall with ILS breakpoints expected to be met at KASE, KEGE, KRIL, and KHDN. Showers will generally be mild, so where precipitation does fall, vis is likely to be reduced to MVFR, if at all. The one exception looks to be KHDN where vis and cigs could reach IFR conditions between 06-12Z. Region-wide, expect for gusty winds of 20-30 kts during tomorrow afternoon.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for COZ004. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight MST Wednesday night for COZ010-013. UT...None.