textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy afternoon winds and above average temperatures will occur each day for the coming work week.

- A passing wave may bring a few snow showers to the northern mountains. Expect little if any accumulations

- Anomalously warm temperatures close to 20 degrees above normal move in by the end of the week, with many locations seeing near- record breaking warmth.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 120 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Models are in good agreement with satellite imagery with the cutoff low just off the Baja coast and the polar jet to our north from Washington to Minnesota into the Great Lakes. The water vapor images show a subtropical jet leaf moving in along the southern flank of the cutoff low that is enough to slowly eject the low to the east across northern Mexico into Texas by Tuesday night. A dry zonal flow aloft over eastern Utah and Western Colorado is keeping our skies mostly clear, and that flow mixing down to generate surface winds gusting 20 to 30 mph across the higher terrain and generally north of I-70. With the cutoff low passing to our south Tuesday drawing the polar jet farther south forming a shortwave, look for stronger winds generally gusting 20-30 mph across the region and 30-40 mph north of I-70. These winds mixing down are keeping our high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal today and tomorrow. As the winds decouple overnight in the lower elevations, radiative cooling allows the morning lows in to drop to about five degrees above normal, but the temperatures in the mountains will remain well above normal as mixing from winds gusting 30 mph will continue overnight. Temperatures will cool some going into Wednesday as the shortwave trough moves to the east pulling in a northwesterly flow pulling in a cooler airmass.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 120 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

By Wednesday morning PoPs return to zero or near zero across the region as the shallow trough that is expected to provide lift for some very light northern mountain snowfall propagates east of the Rockies. High pressure building off of the West Coast will drive a period of warm days with no precipitation through the workweek. The edge of a jet aloft will move across the region through the long term period, which will result in gusty afternoon winds, especially north of I-70. The jet dips further into our CWA this weekend as the ridge to our west increases in amplitude, and a trough downstream of our CWA begins to dig southward. The strongest winds aloft are expected on Sunday, but increased cloud cover from a weak moisture push may lead to less efficient mixing with these jet winds. The strong gusts coupled with drier conditions looks to support critical fire weather conditions in the driest areas, especially on Saturday, but the late weekend moisture push should raise relative humidities to near or above thresholds in affected areas on Sunday.

Speaking of the moisture push, PoPs increase in the northern and central mountains late Saturday through Monday as this moisture moves through, and a shift to northwesterly flow supports orographic lift. However, moisture and forcing do not look to be substantial, and temperatures may struggle to drop below freezing even in the higher terrain. So, orographic precipitation is possible in the northern and central mountains late this weekend into early next week, but uncertainty exists.

Warm temperatures will persist through the forecast period. On Wednesday highs look to be around 5 degrees above normal, but by the weekend highs 15 degrees above normal or more are expected. This means there is potential for record breaking high temperatures, especially on Saturday, the warmest day during the long term period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Some clouds will drift over northern portions of the forecast this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon though flight conditions will remain VFR. Gusty winds will die down over the next few hours only to pick up again early tomorrow afternoon for most TAF sites. Wind speeds of 20 to 30kts, occasionally higher, will be possible.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.