textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds and anomalously warm temperatures are the story for the remainder of week into the weekend. Northwest Colorado valleys will see gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range Thursday with gusts exceeding 40 mph at times through the weekend.

- The warm and breezy conditions will also lead to elevated fire weather concerns through the weekend.

- Snow is possible over the northwest Colorado mountains Sunday and Monday as a weak disturbance clips the northern Divide.

- Anomalously warm temperatures around 20 degrees or so above normal are possible next week, increasing the probability of accelerated snowmelt with dry conditions expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1037 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Strong ridging off the SoCal coast and a deep downstream trough over the eastern CONUS leaves moderately fast NW flow from the PacNW to the central Rockies/Plains. Unfortunately the main moisture plume in this flow is well to the North under the main jet streak aloft so winds are more probable than precipitation over our CWA. Well above normal temperatures and steep low level lapse rates aid mixing this afternoon. This mixing taps into the southern end of the stronger winds aloft and gusts in excess of 45 mph is probable (>70%) over our central and northern high country...and the higher terrain of northwest Colorado. Gusts nearing 45 mph will be possible in the Yampa and White River Valleys and nearby higher ridges. There is also some signals of stronger gusts in the Eagle River Valley and Gunnison Basin but confidence on extent and duration not quite there so the advisories across the NW look good for now. Otherwise we begin a warming trend today that continues into the early weekend with highs settling near 15 degrees above normal. The only moisture moving through will be in the form of mid to high level cloudiness to end out the week. The warm temperatures and lack of precipitation equates to low afternoon humidity which when mixed with afternoon breezes means elevated fire weather concerns and we will be keeping an eye on these trends.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1037 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Friday evening has the jet well to the north in a mostly zonal pattern with a fast moving shortwave moving in through the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave undergoes rapid frontogenesis as it descends through Idaho into Wyoming Saturday with a 170+ kt jetstreak on its rear flank digging it deeper. This system has strong upper-level dynamics of the left exit region of the jetstreak passing across the northern mountain of Utah and Colorado reaching south into the central, and even southern Colorado mountains, but doesn't have a lot of moisture on which to act. Though snow showers Saturday night may be heavy at times, they won't last long depositing only three to six inches snow on the Park Range and less farther south along the central Divide. Will still make fora period of slick mountain roads Saturday night, especially for Rabbit Ears and Vail Passes. The cold front will drop temperatures 10 to 15 degrees and will likely have strong gusty winds associated as it pushes north to south across eastern Utah and Western Colorado by early Sunday morning. Gradients aloft tighten with 500 mb winds about 40 kts Saturday afternoon increasing to 100 kts overnight as this system moves through. Not looking at winter headline with this system, but headlines for winds will be something to watch on and lee of higher terrain. Stay tuned for updates on this quick-moving storm. As this system moves east out onto the Plains Sunday, subsidence under the right exit region of the jet will dampen convection, but the continued strong northwesterly flow will keep light orographic showers going into Monday on the Park Range with another two to four inches possible.

By Monday evening, ridging that has been building off the West Coast starts sliding east into the Intermountain West Tuesday with high pressure building over the Desert Southwest that will dominate the forecast next week. Look for temperatures across the region to warm to near record levels under this high pressure by midweek, 20 to 25 degrees above the climatological normal. The lower valleys will see temperatures near 80 with the southeastern Utah area seeing near 90 while the mountain valleys will reach into the upper 60's and lower 70's.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1113 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Aside from some passing high clouds, skies will remain mostly clear through the period. Elevated westerly winds are the main concern through the next 24 hours, with sustained winds in excess of 10 knots for much of the period, and gusts tomorrow afternoon of 20-30 knots expected. Some LLWS will also develop in sheltered valleys. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ001-002. UT...None.