textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- High elevation snowfall has begun tonight across the Northern and Central mountains, and will linger through Thursday. Hazardous travel conditions over mountain passes are possible for the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

- The higher elevations of the northern Colorado mountains have the highest probability 12+ inch of snow. The remainder of the northern and central high country looks to be in the 4-8 inch range above 9,000 feet.

- Gusty winds accompany this system, with 50-60 mph gusts expected up high, and 30-40 mph gusts across the northern valleys.

- Warm and quiet conditions return Thursday and last into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1038 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

A broad ridge is firmly in place across the western CONUS tonight. With this, strong upper-level flow around the ridge is has prompted AR moisture to penetrate into the Intermountain West. We sit on the leading edge of this feature, thus setting up northwesterly flow through the CWA. This afternoon's sounding revealed the Grand Valley was sitting at around PWAT's 175-200% of normal, which is on par with what recent ensemble forecasts were indicating. Further north, moisture is more anomalous assuming ensembles are on track in those locations as well, with PWAT's likely 200-275% of normal within the Yampa River Basin and around the northern Colorado mountains. These values are expected to increase throughout the night. With the jet still lingering well to our north across the northern Rockies, we're not experiencing much forcing outside of orographic lift along our mountain ranges. Nonetheless, model guidance is still on track for notable snowfall over the Park Range, Flat Tops, and localized portions of the central Colorado mountains. With overnight lows 15-25 degrees above normal tonight, and highs 5-15 degrees above normal tomorrow afternoon, snow ratios are expected to suffer throughout this event, inhibiting snow accumulations. However, this could be offset as the NBM has consistently been indicating heavy QPF over the next 6 to 12 hours, and hi-res models are catching up with this to a degree. We've bumped up our QPF as a result, though are continuing to play it a bit cautious. One reason for this is the quickly diminishing moisture in the morning, as early as 5 AM, per deterministic IVT and ensemble PWAT forecasts. The longer this moisture lingers, the better shot we have at matching upper- end snowfall totals. If we continue to trend towards a more middle- of-the-road outcome though, accumulations are expected to be 8-14 inches over the park range, and 4-8 inches over the Flat Tops and Central Colorado mountains, with localized higher amounts over mountain peaks.

Even though the jet begins to move overhead late tomorrow and into Thursday morning, the strength of it will be decreasing at the same time. This paired with the diminishing moisture from the AR will lead to a steady winding down to the storm throughout Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1038 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

There will be a continuous fetch of SubTrop Pacific moisture directed at the West Coast into early next week. The main plume of this moisture will be forced to our South to start out the extended forecast with NW flow in place. However as the closed E.Pac low in the upstream Rex pattern moves onshore by Sunday the upper flow shifts to the West and eventually to the Southwest as the low moves farther inland. This will lift the moisture back across the Intermountain West and Central Rockies through early next week. Confluent flow aloft will initially keep the threat of precipitation focused across northern Utah into northern Colorado early in the week. The upstream low/trough will eventually become the focus for the precipitation as the confluent zone is pushed into the Plains. The issues this far out however is how and where this low eventually tracks through the Great Basin into the Rockies. The EURO is faster and NOAM models a bit slow and farther South. Either solution will push precipitation out of the northern CWA...but it could be more focused over the central or south depending on how things trend out. More certain is the continued mild pattern with high remain well above normal through the forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1038 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

The moisture push has arrived and this is leading to widespread terrain obscuration over the northern and portions of the central mountains where snow is falling. This has pushed CIGS down to ILS breakpoints at KASE with KEGE and IFR at KHDN where precipitation is reaching the ground. As precipitation becomes more widespread...MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible over KHDN...KEGE and KASE through tomorrow morning...with ILS possible and KRIL where lighter precipitation is expected. General improvement is expected tomorrow afternoon with a return to VFR/ILS conditions. Gusty winds of 20-30 kts will be possible during tomorrow afternoon at most TAF sites.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for COZ004. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Wednesday night for COZ010-013. UT...None.