textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued warm with scattered mountain showers through end of week.

- An approaching storm will deliver more widespread showers Saturday and beyond.

- A cold front arrives Monday, bringing mountain snow and colder temperatures to start the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

NEAR TERM:

The Western Slope remains under an amplified ridge through the end of the week, keeping conditions generally warm and dry. Temperatures will continue to run 10-15 degrees above early April norms. A trough off the coast of California is expected to strengthen in the coming days, resulting in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft over much of the Desert Southwest and into the Four Corners. This will begin to advect increasing upper level moisture, resulting in increased cloud cover and orographically driven mountain showers the next few afternoons. Snow levels remain high, meaning these showers will produce rain for all but the very highest peaks. Deep mixing the next few afternoons will also mix down stronger winds, resulting in breezy afternoons for the lower elevations. This could lead to critical fire weather conditions where humidities are low enough and fuels are susceptible. Most likely areas to see at least localize critical fire weather conditions are the valleys north of I-70.

INCOMING PATTERN SHIFT:

The above-mentioned low off the California coast is expected to weaken and become a progressive open wave by Friday evening, while an even stronger low drops out of the Gulf of Alaska. Meanwhile, moist southwesterly flow continues into the Four Corners, leading to increased PWATs and a gradually saturating atmospheric column. PWATs max out on Saturday, with values of 150-200% of normal expected, and surface levels finally moisten. Coinciding with this max in moisture, the now open wave transits over eastern Utah and western Colorado, bringing a round of widespread precipitation. The widespread clouds and precipitation will lead to a bit of a cool down, with highs running in the 5-10 degrees above normal range. Snow levels remain high though, keeping the precipitation type as rain for most locations. We'll see a bit of a lull in the action Sunday morning as transient ridging swings through, before the next system moves inland. This system is stronger and colder, dropping snow levels to around 8500 feet and cooling temperatures to near to around 5 degrees above normal. Precipitation with this system looks to linger into early next week, as the cold front finally pushes through and then a round of post-frontal showers develops in the cooler, unstable airmass by Tuesday. Highs for early next week cool to 5-10 degrees below normal. Models continue to disagree over where and how much snow will fall, with the latest blended guidance favoring the San Juans. What has been consistent is that all ranges can expect to see at least an inch or two out of this unsettled period. However, the high spring sun angle and very warm antecedent conditions will likely lead to snow melting out in the afternoons. There is an indication that high pressure reasserts itself for the latter half of next week, with another gradually warming trend in store.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 513 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

High to mid level clouds will continue to drift eastward over the region leaving VFR solidly in place under a light wind regime. Virga or light precipitation may linger under the mid level cloud deck with no impacts expected. Another round of shower and thunderstorm activity will occur mainly over the mountains and northern valleys tomorrow afternoon. Gusty winds will be the main threat near these showers and storms.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.