textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather continues Saturday into Tuesday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

- A cold front arrives Monday, bringing mountain snow and colder temperatures to start the work week.

- Cooler and unsettled conditions look to stick around through much of the coming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Today through Sunday:

Quite a change from 24 hours ago where scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms have developed across eastern Utah this morning between 8 and 10 am and are beginning to spread into western Colorado. There is extensive cloud cover across eastern Utah with some clearing behind this first wave. Hi res CAMs pick up on this activity with convection blossoming across much of the area this afternoon, associated with a shortwave moving through and a 90 kt jet streak setting up across western Colorado with this disturbance. The forcing in addition to instability with CAPE around 500 J/kg this afternoon would support this if enough surface heating can take place this afternoon unless this cloud shield over eastern Utah spreading eastward inhibits it. Regardless, today looks to be active with scattered to widespread showers and some thunderstorm activity. Gusty outflow winds appear to be the primary concern with storm activity today which could enhance the surface winds. Winds will be breezy today with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range for the most part but the cloud cover may inhibit stronger gusts from developing. Snow levels remain high, keeping accumulating snow at or above pass level, with accumulations of 1-3 inches expected out of this first round. Take care if traveling over the mountain passes this evening, as even a light dusting of snow can create slick roads and difficult driving conditions. Storm activity looks to cease by sunset as drier air moves in behind this shortwave. This will lead to a drier Sunday afternoon although still breezy with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range with stronger gusts possible across northwest Colorado given the drier airmass but continued southwest gradient as another low pressure trough drops into the Great Basin with a 100 kt jet rounding the base and pushing into Utah and the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Cannot rule out some isolated showers popping up across the high terrain Sunday afternoon due to lift and remnant moisture but most areas should remain dry Sunday. Highs this weekend will stay around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Cooler and unsettled Monday and Tuesday:

As the low pressure trough moves into the Great Basin Monday, southwest flow will strengthen aloft out ahead of it with showers and thunderstorms developing once again Monday afternoon. These showers will become more widespread as the trough axis approaches late Monday with the trough and cold front moving through Monday night into Tuesday morning. Breezy conditions remain Monday afternoon even though latest guidance shows less wind than this weekend, but still anticipate gusts to 40 mph possible and could be enhanced by any convective activity. Colder air arrives with this system with H7 temps dropping to -5C but should be enough to result in better snowfall across the mountain ranges. Still some uncertainty on snowfall amounts but does appear the northern and central Colorado mountains would be favored in this pattern due to orographics and the track of the low. Temperatures drop to near normal on Monday and 5 or so degrees below normal by Tuesday.

Mid to late week:

Another transient ridge is expected to move through Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a brief return to warmer and drier conditions. Models are indicating the potential for another trough to drop down out of the Pacific Northwest to round out the workweek, potentially resulting in another cool down to below normal temperatures with another round of precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the TAF period. Mid level clouds will continue developing into the afternoon hours at all TAF sites. Afternoon heating will lead to instability resulting in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temporary ILS conditions are possible under shower activity. The main concern will be gusty outflow winds upwards of 40 kts where storms are present, with general wind gusts already in the 25-30 kt range. Shower activity will begin to diminish around 00Z for most TAF sites. Higher elevation TAF sites may see showers linger until sunset.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.