textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions highlight the forecast through mid week.

- Red Flag Warnings have been issued for Monday afternoon across much of southwest Colorado.

- Moisture returns to the region late in the week, but dry antecedent conditions may limit rainfall amounts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 959 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE:

Subtle shortwave troughs in a predominately zonal flow pattern aloft will do little to break the region out of it's warm, dry, and windy spell. This means critical fire weather conditions continues to be our main focus. Sunday's risk will be much more localized than what we saw on Saturday due to lighter winds and slightly higher (albiet still dry) relative humidity values. That risk grows across southwest Colorado on Monday afternoon where wind gusts up to 30 mph and single-digit relative humidities. As a result, Red Flag Warnings have been issued. Additional critical fire weather conditions are likely through at least mid week.

Temperatures are expected to peak around 5-10 degrees above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday, including the potential for triple-digit highs in the desert valleys of eastern Utah and western Colorado.

LOOKING AHEAD:

There is finally some semblance of moisture returning to the region later on in the week. Despite PWATs potentially rising to 150-175% of normal, it will likely take some time to scour out the extremely dry air at the surface. Expect adjustments to the forecast as the week progresses. Precipitation chances may be delayed compared to the arrival of the moisture on Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Scattered mid- and high-level cloud cover remains over terminals north of I-70 tonight, but will dissipate throughout the morning. Breezy northwesterly winds do settle back in tomorrow afternoon, with gusts expected to be between 18-25 kts for most terminals. One additional concern throughout the TAF period is the potential for mildly reduced vis due to smoke from Utah fires. The most likely location to see this impact is CNY between 08-15Z. Lower potential exists for VEL between now at 08Z, and GJT between 11-15Z. Smoke is not expected to be dense enough to drop vis below VFR conditions though.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 959 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will be more localized on Sunday before ramping back up with the heat early this week. Gusty winds and single-digit RH across southwest Colorado on Monday afternoon has led to us issuing our next round of Red Flag Warnings accordingly. Expect additional critical fire weather conditions through at least mid week.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ207- 290>295. UT...None.