textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- The next round of snow has begun and will continue through Friday evening. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for most mountain zones. The heaviest snowfall is expected across the San Juan mountains, primarily during the Friday morning hours. - A gradual warming trend is expected through the weekend as high pressure returns. High temperatures may reach 10 degrees above normal by Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1105 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

The next winter storm system has begun as energy associated with a trough to our west enters our CWA. This energy has provided lift for some light snow showers, primarily south of I-70. Snowfall will gradually spread northward during the overnight hours, bringing precipitation chances to the entire CWA around 12Z. Temperatures in some lower valley areas are hovering around freezing at the moment, which could result in a wintry mix if precipitation occurs. However, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing shortly, which should change any wintry mixes over to snow. The heaviest snowfall is expected midnight tonight through the early morning hours as PVA associated with the propagating trough, and orographics from southwesterly flow, provide lift. Weak moisture advection will only raise PWATs to just above normal for this time of the year, but the abundance of forcing will allow for snow accumulations of 5-10 inches for much of our higher terrain, and possibly even an inch or two in some of the valley areas. The northern mountains are expected to receive the least amount of snowfall out of the higher terrain areas, as most of the moisture and PVA remains south of I-70. Decided to continue to leave Vail Pass out of the Advisories as snow totals remain pretty consistent in this forecast package. However, hazardous travel conditions are still possible in the Vail Pass area, and over most other mountain passes. Precipitation chances drop in the afternoon, but strong wind gusts could lead to blowing snow conditions in the mountains. Daytime temperatures should remain below freezing in the higher terrain, but lower valleys could exceed freezing, potentially leading to a wintry mix or rain during the afternoon. By Friday night the trough moves to our east, drier air moves in, and ridging begins to build aloft. With the drier air in place tomorrow night, cloud cover should be reduced, and overnight lows will drop, but WAA and an abundance of sunshine will warm high temperatures on Saturday. Dry weather and warming will continue to trend into the long term period.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1105 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

The axis of an amplified ridge crests over eastern Utah and western Colorado by Sunday morning as deep troughing dominates both coasts. This ridging sticks with us into early next week, although flow aloft once again shifts to southwesterly as the ridge axis moves east of the Divide. This will advect in both warmer air and some upper level moisture, resulting in passing upper level clouds. Highs on Sunday will start out close to normal values for the latter half of February, but will warm a few degrees each day, with highs by midweek running 5-10 degrees above normal. The ridge begins to break down on Tuesday as a strong upper level jet sags south toward the Four Corners. This jet is set to tap into some pretty impressive AR moisture, but the trajectory takes that moisture across the Sierra Nevada, which tend to wring out much of the available moisture before makes it far inland. Despite this, ensemble and deterministic guidance is bullish about PWATs close to 200% of normal reaching eastern Utah and western Colorado by Wednesday. Confidence at this lead time remains low, but its something to keep a close eye on. Guidance is also trying to drape a disorganized baroclinic zone over northern portions of the CWA, along with the strong zonal upper level jet, which will provide at least modest dynamic lift along with some favorable westerly orographics. All together, this means we could see another shot of mountain snow mid-to-late next week, mainly favoring northern and central ranges.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 451 AM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions will be common at most TAF sites with periods of LIFR possible at KDRO, KTEX and KGUC through at least 18Z in snow showers with CIGS and VSBY lowering to ILS breakpoints or lower at times. Showers will become more scattered through the afternoon and gradually taper off with breezy afternoon winds. Conditions will eventually improve to MVFR/VFR by 00Z Saturday with CIGS rising above ILS breakpoints by this evening with VFR returning after 06Z. Winds become light and terrain driven with clearing skies from the northwest overnight into Saturday morning.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ003-009-012-013-017-019-021>023. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ004. UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for UTZ022-025-028.