textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild conditions continue Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next system moving in late Thursday. - Rain and high elevation snow showers pick up Thursday afternoon over northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado. - Showers become widespread along and north of I-70 through the evening and more widely scattered to the South. Snow levels fall below 5,000 feet by early Friday with the heaviest snow forecast over the northern Utah and Colorado mountains. - The weather dries out Saturday into early next week with temperatures gradually warming back to 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1031 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Water vapor and radar imagery is validating the 04/00Z upper air hand analysis map showing a compact system moving out of the central mountains into the southeast Plains of Colorado. This system is trapped under zonal flow extending along the US/Canadian border. The next system is organizing in the Gulf of AK and will be swinging inland later on Wednesday. Transitory ridging ahead of this system will push temperatures up several degrees today and keep things dry. The upstream system digs into the Intermountain West overnight and approaches the UT/Colorado border as a closed system by midday on Thursday. Neither the IVT or PWAT is overly anomalous as the upstream terrain looks to absorb a good portion of the mositure before it gets inland. QG forcing with the system is showing moderate large scale ascent arriving by Thursday afternoon...centered over the northern CWA but covering most the eastern Utah and western Colorado through the evening. What moisture is in place should be utilized effectively by the prolonged lift aloft and a robust cold front under-cutting it. This front oozes into the NW CWA through the morning hours and will likely push through eastern Utah through the afternoon hours. Temperatures in these areas have been cut back several degrees with precipitation expected to be focused along and behind the front in the afternoon as the low and upper circulations merge. Convection and light orographic precipitation is also possible over the higher peaks of the western Colorado in the pre-frontal environment. Some light snow accumulations will be possible during the daylight hours but any significant impacts looks to hold off until the evening and overnight hours as the colder air filters in and snow ratios increase.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1031 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

As a deeper trough drops into the Great Basin, a 150 kt jet will dive down the backside of this trough, eventually causing the system to split by Saturday. The northern piece of this trough with the H5 and H7 low will swing down to the Four Corners and lift northeast over northeast Utah and northwest Colorado Thursday night into Friday morning. While the moisture is somewhat limited with PWAT anomalies slightly above normal with the passage of the trough axis and cold front, upper level dynamics support moderate QG forcing across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado to result in higher snowfall accumulations favoring the eastern Uintas and Park Range. The cold front will move through Thursday evening into Friday morning, bringing in colder air with H7 temperatures dropping into the -7C to -10C range, with snow levels lowering to valley floors by midnight Thursday night. As of right now, it looks like the eastern Uintas and Park Range may receive around 6 to 12 inches of snow where dynamic forcing is greatest and greater chance of impactful snow exists. The rest of the northern and central Colorado mountains won't see quite as much with around 4 to 8 inches on average and less in the southern mountains. This northern piece of the trough will lift into the Plains by Friday afternoon so snow is expected to continue through the day on Friday. Snow accumulations in the valleys appears limited at this time with a couple inches possible in the northwest Colorado valleys. Temperatures on Friday will be much cooler following this cold front with highs dropping from 5 to 10 degrees above normal ahead of the front on Thursday to 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Friday behind the front.

The upper level trough will become positively tilted as a 160 kt jet dives down the back side of it through the Great Basin and into the Desert Southwest, causing a southern piece of the trough to split Friday night into Saturday forming a closed low over the northern Baja. This will leave our CWA in the col or deformation region with limited forcing and dry conditions this weekend with limited precipitation if any. We will also warm back up under this col this weekend with highs returning to above normal levels and eventually getting towards 10 to 15 degrees above normal by early next week. Questions arise on what happens with this southern closed low so confidence on precipitation early next week is low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1031 PM MST Tue Mar 3 2026

Some light showers may linger over the divide late tonight but shouldn't have any impact to TAF sites aside from some lingering cloud cover. Clearing skies take hold overnight from the west with VFR conditions and light, terrain driven winds expected over the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.