textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures highlight the Thanksgiving Day forecast, with warmth continuing into tomorrow. Cooler weather returns Saturday onward.

- Other than periodic light snow showers in the northern mountains, conditions remain dry through tomorrow afternoon.

- A quick moving system will bring mountain snow Friday night into Saturday, with another system impacting the region Sunday and Monday bringing wintry conditions and potentially impacting post-holiday travel through the mountains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

The models are in good agreement with each other and with satellite imagery placing the low just off the Pacific Northwest about to move inland and the ridge axis centered on eastern Utah and Western Colorado bringing the sunny skies to the region today. This low moves in over western Washington this evening and opens into a wave overnight as it descends to the southeast into Idaho. Models continue in good agreement on timing and track of this openwave moving into the northern areas tomorrow evening and shifting east of the Divide by Saturday morning. With the latest run, guidance is inconsistent on the moisture associated with the system with a sharp increase of precipitation over the Park Range, but the satellite imagery isn't showing this increased moisture up stream. Reduced the QPF with this latest run to limit snow to four to eight inches accumulation on the Park range, and one to three inches in the Elkheads, the Flat Tops and Vail Pass, more in line with the previous runs. That being said, you'll want to check the forecast tomorrow if you plan to drive in these areas as there is a lot of uncertainty in the snow amounts, and these amounts could see gains of 50% or more snow should the latest run prove true. This area does get a cold shot of arctic air with this system with temperatures dropping 15-20 degrees Saturday from the warm temperatures of today and tomorrow in the Steamboat Springs area. Look for temperatures cooling five to ten degrees elsewhere across the region Saturday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 246 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

After the latest clipper departs into the Plains and Midwest by Saturday afternoon, much cooler air mass will be left behind with highs dropping by about 5 to 10 degrees from Friday's highs. Some light flurries may linger over the northern Divide but conditions should be improving through the afternoon. Another trough is expected to drop in from the northwest Sunday afternoon with snow picking up over the northern and central mountains, dropping further south into the San Juans by Sunday evening. Models are coming into better agreement with regards to this late weekend storm and are a bit more progressive and not as far south, with this system moving into the Plains by Monday with mountain snow lingering through Monday morning. With its continental origins, moisture is limited which is resulting in less production. At this time, snowfall totals fall within that 3 to 6 inch range for most mountain areas with locally higher amounts over the central mountains and eastern San Juans. This reduction in totals from run to run is reflected with limited moisture and the more progressive nature of this system. Mountain travel post-Thanksgiving holiday will be impactful regardless of amounts so check the latest forecast and road conditions before traveling and be prepared for wintry conditions over the passes.

Dirty northwest flow remains for much of next week with what looks like a cooler unsettled pattern emerging as yet another system drops in from the northwest by Tuesday into Wednesday. This appears to be another clipper like system favoring the northern and central Colorado mountains. Details become fuzzy beyond Monday honestly, but this unsettled northwest flow should keep mountain snow in the forecast through the coming week and cooler temperatures as we cross over into December, staying right around 5 degrees below normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 438 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Increased high and mid level cloud coverage is expected overnight. Beginning tomorrow afternoon gusty winds are expected at sites near or in the higher terrain, especially along the Divide.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.