textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record temperatures and gusty winds are expected tomorrow afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated storms develop tomorrow evening, mainly north of I-70.

- Rain and snow showers increase in coverage late Monday night into Tuesday with a few inches of mountain snow above 9,000 feet. - Mild conditions continue Wednesday and beyond with additional snowfall for mountain locales above 9,000-10,000 feet.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 201 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Despite an abundance of mid and upper-level moisture in place along and north of the I-70 corridor, precipitation will be hard to come by until Monday evening due to the lack of synoptic ascent aloft. A few orographic showers cannot be ruled out over the northern mountains, but additional measurable snowfall is not anticipated.

Southwesterly flow takes over tomorrow ushering in warm air from the southwest. Despite partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures warm as high as 15 to 20 degrees above normal for early March. A few locations may flirt with record-high temperatures, but this will be highly dependent on cloud coverage throughout the day. Gusty winds are also expected tomorrow as a low pressure system and it's attendant jet streak approach from the west. There is a high probability for valley wind gusts up to 30-40 mph with mountain wind gusts as high as 55 mph.

As low pressure slides in tomorrow evening, an uptick in synoptic forcing and steepening lapse rates will result in rain/snow showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly along and north of the I-70 corridor. Shower coverage increases late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This is when a cold front moves through helping to lower snow levels and provide extra forcing for ascent. There is a 10-30% chance for minor winter weather impacts over mountain passes so watch out for slick spots if you are out and about, especially Tuesday morning. Conditions improve throughout the day as the low pressure system moves out to the southeast. As it does, the central and southern mountains will see a brief uptick in rain/snow showers.

In total, this mild, quick-hitting system is expected to produce 2- 6" of new snow along the spine of the Park Range with 1-4" over 9,000 feet for the eastern Uintas and remaining northern Divide mountains.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 201 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

A busier, although not particularly impactful, progressive pattern takes hold Wednesday. Transitory ridging behind Tuesday's weak cold front will rebound afternoon highs 5 to 10 degrees. This is good enough for another day of temperatures well over early March climatology. Nothing new here. Abundant sunshine will make for another round of spring-like conditions. An open wave dipping into the PACNW taps into some colder air that will send another weak cold front through the area on Thursday. This will produce some additional mountain snow and valley rain. Snow levels lower more significantly with this system, but antecedent warm conditions continue to plague snow level forecast expectations. It looks like the Central Mountains and northward could see 3-5 inches of new snow Thursday and Friday, with some of it getting chewed up during daytime hours Thursday. Down south in the San Juans, it's looking pretty meager with 1 to 3 inches. The deeper cold air dials back highs Friday to near normal for a change. This looks to spell out the best snow rates Friday. Precipitation tapers off by early Saturday morning. Models suggest the positively tilted trough gets stretched Friday and beyond by the zonal Polar Jet well to our north, leaving a pinched off low to form over northern Baja. Spaghetti plots stay somewhat aligned with this solution at the moment. This could place us in a quiet, warm'ish, col northeast of the cutoff Baja low next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 452 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Scattered to broken cloud cover will remain this evening but precipitation should come to an end as the recent wave lifts north. We will return to VFR conditions with CIGS rising above ILS breakpoints. Some clearing will be seen across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado with FEW to SCT clouds from time to time. Winds pick up aloft Monday morning with LLWS expected around KASE and KTEX. Winds will increase Monday afternoon as stronger gusts reach the surface between 20 and 30 kts.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.