textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches continue each day through Tuesday.

- Gusty afternoon winds are expected each afternoon for next week. Tuesday will be the windiest day with gusts of 30 to 45 mph, if not higher, being common.

- High-end fire weather conditions are likely for portions of the region on Tuesday due to very low relative humidity and strong winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Southwesterly flow continues across the region thanks to an upper level low moving across the US/Canadian border and associated trough that is draped across the Great Basin. Dry conditions remain in the forecast for the foreseeable future but enough midlevel moisture, daytime heating, and instability will allow another round of showers, maybe a quick storm, for NE Utah and NW Colorado. Latest CAM guidance has pulled back on any convection on surrounding higher terrain and NBM is following suit so removed any mention of showers/storms. May need to revisit tomorrow to reintroduce PoPs on latest guidance. Do not anticipate much, if any, precip hitting the ground so gusty outflow winds will be the biggest concern as well as dry lightning. Under these conditions, critical fire weather conditions remain in place as described below.

Looking ahead to next week, another upper level trough sets up to our west. The surface pressure gradient tightens as the jet stream rounds the base of the trough and moves across the CWA which will allow gusty winds to continue across the area. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be common each afternoon with even higher gusts expected Tuesday and again Wednesday. This hot, dry and windy forecast will keep widespread critical fire weather conditions across much of the area and will likely keep fire weather products in place through the end of the week. Winds will start diminishing Thursday onwards after the trough moves eastward. Trough passage will also bring some cooler temperatures to the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 544 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Winds are mostly light and terrain driven at the moment, but over the next few hours gusts will begin at many sites. During the afternoon and early evening gusts 20 to 30 kts are forecast across the region. Gusty winds are expected to persist until around 02Z or 03Z. Mid and high level cloud cover is moving in from the west, and will increase in coverage throughout the day. VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A long stretch of critical fire weather persists through Thursday. This is being prompted by strong winds and dry surface conditions beneath a strong sustained southwesterly flow aloft. Through Monday, winds will gust 25-35 mph with isolated values to 40 mph possible and relative humidities will be near or in the single digits. Fire zones with critical fuels have been placed under Red Flag Warnings or Fire Weather Watches, with upgrades likely for the watches in subsequent forecast packages.

Isolated dry thunderstorms could develop tomorrow due to a pulse of moisture lifting into the region as the trough out west deepens. This could pose problems for new fire starts in northeast UT and northwest CO. Critical fire weather conditions amplify Tuesday, with increased concerns for high-end critical fire weather conditions due to the stronger winds beneath a tightening pressure gradient and single digit relative humidities. The majority of the region will see gusts of at least 35 mph. However, the lower Yampa River Basin, Uinta Basin, Utah Grand Flat, and Four Corners region, winds are forecasted to reach as high as 50 mph in concert with the single digit relative humidities. Multiple forecast runs have been consistently painting these stronger winds, leading to increasing confidence in the high-end nature of Tuesday's fire weather potential. Red Flag conditions likely persist for portions of the region on Wednesday and Thursday as well, with temperatures recovering back to near normal.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293. UT...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-490-491. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for UTZ486-487-490-491.