textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures linger tomorrow, though a gradual warming trend starts Sunday into early next week, with the return of above normal temperatures.

- Dry and quiet weather lingers through midweek.

- The middle of next week will see increasing chances for precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1015 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

As snow has largely come to an end across the region, all Winter Weather Advisories have been dropped. Some light snow showers are lingering over the higher elevations tonight, but as high pressure and drier air continues to fill in, these should come to an end by daybreak tomorrow. Additional snow accumulations will amount to less than an inch at best. Clear skies and light winds tonight will favor radiational cooling, especially for areas with fresh snow, leading to lows tomorrow morning running 5-15 degrees below normal. In addition, thanks to moisture now trapped in the valleys, fog development will be a possibility, mainly along and south of I-70.

High pressure builds in from the west tomorrow, starting a gradual warming and drying trend. We remain on the edge of an upper level jet that has some modest moisture transiting through, which will bring periods of passing high clouds tomorrow into Sunday. However, skies will be mostly clear, and winds will remain light and terrain driven. Good radiational cooling will once again be favored tomorrow night, with overnight lows running 5-15 degrees below normal once more. Highs tomorrow will still be 5-10 degrees below normal, but should jump to near normal values by Sunday as warm air advection gets underway.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1015 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

The axis of a ridge will be just west of our CWA Sunday night. This ridging will drive a period of warm, quiet weather through the first half of the long term period. On Tuesday moisture moving atop the ridge will advect into our region. By late in the day Tuesday PWATs are forecasted to be above 200% of normal. Moisture anomalies peak during the day Wednesday, but synoptic forcing will be absent until Wednesday evening, meaning snowfall will primarily be dependent on orographic lift during much of the time moisture is elevated. Flow looks to be west to northwesterly, so orographic lift will be favored in the northern mountains, but accumulating snow is also possible in the central and southern Colorado mountains. A shortwave trough passing to our northeast will pull a narrow band of vorticity through the CWA overnight Wednesday into Thursday. PVA associated with this could provide brief synoptic support for more widespread mountain snowfall. However, at this point in time ensembles diverge regarding moisture, so confidence is low in how much moisture will be available when lift increases. The ECMWF Ens seems to favor less anomalous moisture, and a quicker return to normal, when compared to the GFS Ens. In addition, ensemble members are struggling to find consistency regarding expected snowfall. Despite this, ensembles have been very consistent between runs on the onset of this snowfall. So, confidence is low regarding potential snow totals, but is increasing that light mountain snow begins late Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1015 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

Isolated, very light snow showers are possible over the next hour or so, but otherwise dry weather is expected through the TAF period. Some low clouds may linger around the higher terrain but should clear in the morning. There is a possibility of fog near KDRO, KGUC, and KVEL overnight, but confidence is still not high enough to include in TAFs. Skies will be mostly clear in the afternoon tomorrow. VFR conditions are expected to prevail and winds will be light and variable.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.