textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow and rain returns to the area later this evening through Friday morning.

- Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for much of the higher terrain in CO and the La Sals and Abajos in UT for generally 6 to 10 inches of snow.

- Much colder temperatures move in Friday as highs drop to more normal seasonal values, if not a few degrees below.

- Dry and warm conditions return for next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 332 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

Models show good agreement with satellite imagery with the H500 low east of Santa Fe NM moving to the east, an H700 cold front just pushing east of the Divide with orographic showers developing in the instability behind it, a dry slot approaching the western boundary of the region, and widely scattered to widespread showers from the Wasatch Mountains extending west to the cold front in western Nevada associated with the shortwave system to the west. Snow and low elevation rain showers are tracking west to east across eastern Utah and Western Colorado as the first of two shortwave systems move across the region. Snow is already accumulating on roads across the region from Hwy-40 up north to Hwy-161 down south favoring the western to southern face of rising terrain where the orographics are strongest. Look for the showers to continue through the morning with showers tapering off west to east by noon as the dry slot moves in from the west. This lull in activity will be short lived as the next disturbance moves in from the west late morning through the afternoon ahead of the associated much colder frontal boundary that will pass northwest to southeast across the region from late afternoon through the overnight. With the showers, cloud cover and the frontal passage, temperatures today will run five to ten degrees cooler than yesterday. Look for showers ending and gusty northwest winds behind the second front this evening with temperatures falling another ten degrees from what we'll see today. Skies clear out tomorrow, and it will look warmer, but with temperatures not getting above freezing except in the lower valleys, and with the breezy north winds through the day, windchill temps will feel bitterly cold compared to warm temperatures we've had for the last few weeks.

Winter Weather Advisories continue for the mountains of eastern Utah and Western Colorado through 5 AM tomorrow. Expect winter driving conditions with slick roads and periods of low visibility in showers, especially near the mountain passes. Allow extra time if you need to travel in the mountains today and tonight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 332 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

By Friday night an upstream ridge building back into the West will push the trough onto the Plains. This ridge will evolve into a Rex Block by late Saturday as the southern extension of the Plains trough breaks off and retrogrades westward. This will effectively cut off any southern moisture source and another prolonged dry period will be setting up through at least early next week. By midweek the downstream pattern buckles allowing a deep eastern NOAM trough to form. This can only mean the upstream ridge will be pumped northward leaving a very high amplitude pattern in place. Models that far out have the flavor of the pattern correct but the EURO is digging a sharper trough along the spine of the Central/Southern Rockies...while the GFS is digging more through the Plains. Ensemble clusters are not of much help attm with the favored two scenarios just a reflection of the same scenario above. So forecast challenges will likely be focused around the daily temperatures forecast. Cold air settles in behind the trough and pushes temperatures to below normal going into the weekend. With a trough building aloft likely to re-enforce surface inversions...several valley and basin temperatures may struggle to reach the going blended forecast highs. The warming trend through early next week may need to be adjusted downward...especially with any amount of cloud cover this time of year.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1051 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

Snow and rain showers have been impacting the region through the morning. Impacts, including MVFR/LIFR conditions and ceilings below ILS breakpoints, will continue through much of the TAF period. Chances of TAF site impacts will decrease this afternoon, especially at lower elevation sites, but a second wave of this system will bring increased coverage of snowfall, lowered ceilings, and reduced visibility beginning in the late afternoon. Strong wind gusts, potentially greater than 25 kts at some sites, is expected after 00Z as a cold front passes. Conditions improve tonight, and skies will clear in the late morning, but low clouds and snowfall may linger in higher terrain areas.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for COZ004-009- 010-012-013-017>019. UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for UTZ028.