textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms (some possibly dry) are expected today. Storms may produce gusty outflows and new fire starts.

- Critical fire weather conditions return today for eastern Utah and portions of far Western Colorado. Those conditions become widespread on Saturday and Sunday due to strong 40-50+ mph surface winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1016 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

DRY IN THE WEST, WET IN THE EAST FRIDAY:

After a brief reprieve in critical fire weather conditions, warm and dry conditions push back into the region Friday. A dry slot ahead of the deepening trough to our west will drive relative humidities down and winds upward for eastern UT and along the western edge of CO. This is where critical fire weather conditions will require another round of Red Flag Warnings. Eastward towards the Divide, moisture remains in place and the chances for afternoon showers and storms stick around. A few strong storms are possible once again, especially given an overall increase in shear. Dry lightning remains a concern where recent wetting rains might not have saturated vegetation. Gusty outflows and stronger surface winds could also help with new fire starts on Friday.

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ROAR BACK IN:

This weekend, a low pressure system tracks over the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. The associated jet stream will move overhead along with the aformentioned dry slot. This will push out any lingering moisture out of the region at the same time winds are increasing. Southwest winds in excess of 40-50 mph are expected Saturday and Sunday for many locations, with the Four Corners region being particularly susceptible. All of this will result in widespread critical fire weather conditions across the region. On Monday the trough will still be located to our west, which keeps us in the dry and windy southwest flow. Wind speeds will likely decrease compared to what is expected for the weekend. Temperatures will be around normal to slightly below through mid next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 537 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Light showers will continue this morning across northeast Utah into northwest Colorado with gusty winds at times and light rain near showers among SCT to BKN cloud cover. Elsewhere, FEW to SCT mid level clouds will be present with VFR conditions and light winds. Winds pick up this afternoon with gusts 25 to 35 kts at times, strongest at Utah terminals. Another round of scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon and last into the evening, mainly focused across western Colorado terminals and the Four Corners. Smoke will continue to be visible through the period, but opted to leave it out of the TAFs as it doesn't appear to impact visibilities as much as previous days.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1016 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions return Friday afternoon to eastern Utah and portions of far western Colorado. With poor overnight RH recovery and increasing winds, critical fire weather conditions continue Friday night for eastern Utah.

Critical fire weather conditions become widespread this weekend as wind speeds of 40-50 mph will be common for many locations. Relative humidities near 10 percent in this gusty environment are expected to lead to extreme fire behavior. These conditions following any lightning starts will remain a forecast concern through the weekend. These fire weather conditions may linger into Monday although with lower wind speeds.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for COZ200>203-205-207-290>295. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ202-203-207-290-292-294. UT...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ487-490-491. Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight MDT Saturday night for UTZ486-487-490-491.