textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding is ongoing across portions of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, and is expected to continue through Sunday morning.

- Rivers continue to run full, with a few cresting already and some expected to crest overnight tonight into early Sunday morning.

- Scattered showers and storms will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall that could result in additional local flooding through Sunday.

- Mountain passes could see some light snow on roadways tonight, and again Sunday night into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1043 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The slow moving area of low pressure that has kept the last several days cool and wet remains in place around the Four Corners, pumping more tropical moisture into the region. Rain showers, and a few thunderstorms, will continue to move from south to north through eastern Utah and western Colorado through the night tonight. At the higher elevations, light snowfall will be possible above 9-10k feet. Little in the way of accumulations are expected, but it could lead to slippery commutes over the southern mountain passes Sunday morning. While rain rates remain on the lower side, these showers will contribute more runoff into the already waterlogged rivers and streams. While a number of rivers have already crested and are on their way down, a few rivers, particularly the San Juan River through the Four Corners and Southeast Utah, continue to rise. A Flood Watch, and a number of Flood Warnings, remain in place through Sunday afternoon to capture the expected crests in the next 6-12 hours.

Drier air tries to push in from the southwest during the day tomorrow as the low finally starts to lift northeast. This will bring a break from showers before the cold frontal passage reinvigorates showers and storms during the afternoon. These storms will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds. Colder air in the wake of the front and lingering moisture will allow for light mountain rain and snow showers to linger Sunday night into Monday. Again, little snow accumulation is expected, but passes could once again be slippery Monday morning, especially along the Central and Northern Divide.

This low finally moves east of the Divide by Monday morning, with much drier conditions expected through the day Monday. A quick moving clipper will just brush our northern border Monday night into Tuesday, with the potential for some light rain and snow showers over the higher terrain of the eastern Uintas and Northern Colorado Divide. Behind this clipper, zonal flow takes control, bringing mostly quiet conditions and gradually warming temperatures through the back half of the work week. Highs start out 5-10 degrees below normal Sunday through Tuesday, climbing to near-normal by the Wednesday-Thursday time period. By Friday, flow aloft shifts to a moister southwesterly direction in response to a low deepening off the West Coast, bringing increased cloud cover and a slight cooldown. Model agreement is poor beyond this point, but there are indications that we could see a return to cooler and unsettled conditions by next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1059 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Some showers persist at this hour and will affect KGJT, maybe KRIL, over the next few hours. Mid level, and some low level, ceilings also persist bringing some MVFR to the region. Do expect mostly VFR conditions though some MVFR/IFR cigs can't be ruled out so included in a few TEMPO/PROB30 groups. Low pressure will move across the area tomorrow bringing more chances for some showers and isolated storms though coverage should be less than seen recently. Despite that, some brief MVFR/IFR will be possible under the heavier showers/storms that do form. Gusty outflow winds will also be a concern under and near the stronger convection.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1043 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Hydrologic concerns remain elevated due to the widespread excessive rainfall. Some locations in the southern San Juan mountains have received 3-6 inches of rain since Wednesday afternoon. Potential hazards through Sunday include localized flash flooding from thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall rates and river flooding due to a prolonged period of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Several river gauges are already past crest, but a few downstream locations are expected to crest this evening into Sunday morning.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for COZ017>023. UT...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for UTZ022-027>029.