textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain though convective coverage and intensity will be less than seen lately.

- Temperatures will gradually increase each day through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 915 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A noticeable decline in available moisture began last night and continues today. By this evening, PWATs will reach more normal values for this time of year. Despite a weak jet streak moving overhead, CAMs are still showing a down day with regards to convection. There will be some showers, and a few storms, that initiate off the higher terrain but coverage and intensity will be less, if not considerably so, than that seen on Friday. Deterministic models are showing almost no convection across the CWA while the NBM favors the San Juans and along the higher terrain for eastern portions of the CWA. Seems reasonable for now with PoPs of 30 to 50% for showers/storms over those areas. Sunday onwards, relatively dry conditions move back though the odd shower, thanks to daytime heating, can't be ruled out over favorable areas...looking at you San Juans. Previous model runs showed chances increasing for precip midweek onwards but latest guidance has now pushed most precip to the Front Range. Confidence remains low in the mid to long range forecast.

We have one more day of pleasant, near normal highs before a warmup kicks in Sunday onwards. By midweek, highs will return to anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above climatological normals.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1202 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A few light showers will be possible overnight, mostly in the higher terrain north of I-70 and the southern San Juans. TAF site impacts are not expected from these showers. Showers and thunderstorms are possible after 18Z over the high terrain. Winds will be light and variable overnight, and VFR conditions will prevail.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.