textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy winds and light snow showers are likely today over the northern and central Divide mountains. Less than two inches of accumulating snow is expected.

- Mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions persist through the week, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal and near or breaking records.

- A pattern shift to wetter conditions is possible next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 134 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

A relatively moist airmass has overtaken the region, evident through water vapor imagery and denser mid- and high-elevation clouds moving in from the north. This comes on the heels of a transient shortwave and northwesterly flow pulling some moisture over us. As the nose of an upper-level jet begins to settle in over north-central Colorado tonight, look for snow showers to begin over our northern and central mountain ranges. Accumulations will be light, generally less than 2", which will prompt minimal impacts aside from some potentially slick roads.

The jet remains relatively stationary through today, bringing gusty winds to most high elevation locations across the CWA. Gusts through mountain passes are expected to fall in the range of 30-40 mph during the afternoon, though some stronger gusts, particularly near the eastern Uintas and the northern Colorado mountains, cannot be ruled out. Higher valleys along I-70 and US-50 are more likely to reach 20-25 mph afternoon gusts, with lower valleys and basins generally falling below 20 mph. As the ridge to our west builds, the jet gets nudged to our east overnight, bringing an end to the windy conditions and any lingering light precipitation.

Though the mid-level atmosphere should dry out after sunset tonight, any remaining surface moisture paired with clearing skies may lead to patchy fog development in valleys Wednesday morning, especially across the northern CWA. This could hinge on how quickly winds taper off as lingering gusts would dampen fog potential.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 134 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

The persistent Rex Block remains to our west with a high pressure ridge extending from SoCal to the Canadian border with a cut off low just off the Baja. This Rex Block has been the culprit in our drier and warmer pattern thus far and doesn't look to change until potentially next week. A trough will try to push into the ridge just off the west coast and nudge the high overhead by Thursday and Friday. This will lead to a period of strong WAA, setting the stage for potential near record highs across the region. As this trough pushes towards the west coast, it does appear to lift to the northeast over the PacNW and try to go up and around the top of the ridge.

There is a lot of uncertainty this weekend and beyond though with whether this Rex Block breaks down and what happens with the cut off low over the Baja. Most cluster analysis has the high pressure ridge axis over the western half of the CONUS with the cut off low staying over the Baja but nudging slightly east with the trough looming off the PacNW coast on Sunday. While some precipitation could enter the region from the south late this weekend, the blended solution favors a drier and warmer forecast through Sunday. Unsettled weather could return to the area beyond Monday though as signs are pointing towards this ridge finally breaking down and the trough crashing in from the west, leading to a more unsettled and progressive pattern. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF as well as the blended solution (NBM) are showing signs of this potential. EOF analysis looking ahead to next week beyond Monday indicate more troughiness over the west which would point towards this Rex Block finally breaking down, leading to a pattern shift towards a wetter and more progressive pattern. The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks also favor a shift towards above normal precipitation for the west. Hard to lock anything in just yet, but it is something to keep a close eye on as the week progresses.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1016 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Low and mid level clouds are lingering along the northern and central Divide mountains, although ceilings have remained above breakpoints. These clouds are expected to continue through the next 3-6 hours, before finally lifting out. Elsewhere, only passing high clouds are expected. Winds will be stronger today, with northwesterly to westerly gusts up to 20 knots. After sunset, winds will drop and follow typical terrain driven patterns. VFR conditions will prevail.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.