textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisories remain active for most mountain zones across the West Slope with 5-10 inches of snow expected by Monday morning.

- Travel on mountain passes is expected to be challenging this afternoon and Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Colder temperatures behind today's cold front will keep a cold trend in place this week.

- Another winter storm may move through midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 158 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Per snow stake cameras, all mountain ranges have already begun to receive an inch or two of snow as this late weekend shortwave begins to push through from the northwest. Not much has changed for the northern and central mountain ranges with a widespread swath of 6-10 inches expected and higher localized amounts up to a foot and a half in some portions of the Elks and West Elks. The major change with this forecast comes over the Grand Mesa, the Uncompahgre Plateau, the San Juans, and the La Sals, where snow totals have jumped a few more inches. The culprit for this is the increasing potential for stronger snow bands developing along the frontal boundary near and south of I-70 in the mid-to- late afternoon. Not all CAM's are on board with this stronger convective development yet, but some (particularly the NAM Nest) are certainly trending towards this outcome. Unfortunately, without strong agreement among models, it's difficult to say if these higher snow rates and totals will manifest or not, so it is extremely important this afternoon and evening to stay aware of current conditions, especially in those aforementioned regions where strong snow bands could develop.

The heaviest snowfall should begin to wane following midnight, though impactful snow showers could continue through sunrise, particularly in the central and southern Colorado mountain passes. After sunrise, look for snow showers to dissipate and pave the way for clearer skies and a chilly afternoon behind the front. High temperatures will run 5-15 degrees below normal tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 158 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

And the wave train doesn't end as we look upstream Tuesday. An upper level trough will be located over western Montana and eastern Idaho early Tuesday. Ahead of this feature will be a shortwave that will just clip our CWA bringing some light snow to the eastern Uintas, and northern valleys and mountains. Don't look for much accumulation though, that won't start until the main upper level trough and the next weak, cold front pushes through. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with this system even this far out but that's not to say we couldn't see some changes over the next few days. That being said, the forecast is calling for 2 to 5 inches over the northern mountains, Flat Tops and portions of the central mountains with lesser amounts south. Previous, similar systems have come in with amounts like these and then as we get closer to the event, amounts bump up so there's always that chance. Either way, much of the CWA will see some form of precip Tuesday morning through Thursday.

And wouldn't you know, the wave train continues Friday into the weekend as pieces of energy move through northwesterly flow. You folks up in Steamboat Springs, you know what this means. Favorable orographics, not to mention stronger waves moving through, over a prolonged period may bring some decent snowfall amounts to the Elkheads and Park Ranges. We are still a ways out, however, so take this with a grain of salt. Still, something to look forward to. As far as high temperatures are concerned, they will be on the cool side with highs generally below more normal early December values across the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 424 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

The cold front extends from about KASE to south of KCNY moving southeast at 10 kts and should exit the region to the east by about 09Z. Behind the front, lingering showers and low ceilings continue for a few hours before showers end and ceilings lift to VFR levels. Look for improving conditions above ILS breakpoints at KHDN by 03Z, KGJT, KRIL and KEGE by 06Z, KMTJ and KTEX by 09Z, and KGUC by 12Z. Thereafter, expect clear skies and VFR conditions across the region through 00Z.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Monday for COZ004-009- 010-012-013-017>019. UT...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Monday for UTZ028.