textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow for the Uintas and northern mountains of Colorado today, with little to no impacts.

- A weak atmospheric river will arrive Wednesday, producing measurable snowfall for most mountains and rain in the valleys. Unseasonably warm conditions will keep snow levels elevated.

- Mountain roads are likely to see accumulating snow late Wednesday night and early Thursday.

- Unsettled weather continues for the mountains through Friday, with a brief lull this weekend and additional precipitation early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 356 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Low pressure digging southward down the West Coast this morning is sending a plume of moisture from SOCAL across the Great Basin. The richest moisture lingers back across the Pacific, just offshore. This weak atmospheric river is still expected to push northeast across the Four Corners into the region tonight and tomorrow. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary is coalescing around the developing jet streak rounding the southeast quadrant of the low this morning. Lower clouds have begun filling in across northwest Colorado. A few flurries have even been seen on highway cameras on Vail Pass. Light snow can be expected today for the Uintas and northern mountains, primarily north of the I-70 corridor. The resident air mass and potent warm air advection will see that most snow is melting as it falls today, with any hopes for accumulation today remaining in the alpine likely. Winds will start picking up on the mountains today as that jet streak begins to intensify over the region.

Tonight, with the front drifting south and moisture transport increasing across the region, PWAT values begin to climb. This will spread precipitation southward over the mountains and, by daybreak, into the valleys. PWATs peak around 240 percent of normal Wednesday into Thursday. A somewhat complex forecast develops on Wednesday, thanks to the warm antecedent conditions and developing shower activity. While afternoon highs will trend 15 degrees over climatology, rain and snow cooled air will push back. With some of the richest moisture arriving Wednesday afternoon and the jet locked in overhead. Our Central Mountains and northward will remain in the crosshairs for the best snow accumulation chances. Light accumulations(3-6 inches roughly) between 8000-10000 feet are expected, with the best snow above 10,000 feet. Some uncertainty creeps in after dark Wednesday, as we will most certainly continue to cool and snow levels drop. Mountain roads likely start to see some impacts too. Unfortunately, warm air with low liquid/snow ratios and model spread in additional moisture cast some doubt on accumulations overnight Wednesday. I have held off on issuing highlights given the high snow levels, slow snow rates, and model uncertainty. Given another surge in model QPF today, I could see the Central Mountains and the Park Range needing an advisory for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This feels more like a shoulder season forecast than mid-winter.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 356 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Thursday morning sees eastern Utah and western Colorado under a strong 115-125 knot southwesterly jet ahead of an open wave tracking through the Great Basin. This jet will bring enhanced lift and much above normal moisture, with PWAT values expected to still be 150- 200% of normal. In addition, a weak front will gradually push south through the area during the day Thursday, bringing a modest cool down behind it. Temperature drop from 15-20 degrees above normal Thursday to around 10 degrees above normal by Friday. Snow levels fall to 6500-7500 feet generally along and north of I-70 by Thursday evening. With ample lift and moisture around, this means valley rain and accumulating mountain snow favoring the northern and central ranges. A drying trend through the day Thursday will limit accumulations somewhat, generally keeping totals under 6 inches by Friday morning.

Friday sees a bit of a lull in activity as the jet moves southeast and we lose upper level dynamic support. The base of Thursday's open trough drops into the Desert Southwest and becomes a closed low as it transits Arizona and New Mexico. Deep moisture accompanies this feature, with PWATs ticking up to around 200% of normal by Friday afternoon. Some of this moisture is expected to creep into southwest Colorado and southeast Utah. Southerly flow ahead of the low will act on favorable orographics over the San Juans to start another period of light to moderate snowfall. Models are in disagreement over exactly how far south this low will track. A more northerly track, such as that favored by the GFS, would benefit the San Juans more, by adding some extra dynamic lift on top of the favorable orographic lift. However, another few model runs are needed before we can pin this down exactly. In general, totals from this round look to be 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, by Saturday afternoon

Transient ridging builds in for Sunday and Monday as the southern stream low tracks into the Great Plains and the next trough deepens off the West Coast. However, the ridge axis quickly passes east of the Rockies, placing eastern Utah and western Colorado once again under warm, moist southwesterly flow. So clouds are likely to still dominate. Winds could become breezy by Monday as the next low moves onshore and the pressure gradient tightens up. Another 120+ knot southwesterly jet is expected to move overhead during this period. Model agreement with this next trough is still poor on the details, but it does look like we're in for another active period early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 438 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

System bringing chances for precipitation over the higher terrain and at KHDN. Low to mid level clouds expected over much of the area, with chances for ceilings to drop below breakpoints at KHDN, KEGE, and KASE. Breezy westerly to southwesterly winds today. VFR conditions will prevail, with chances for MVFR at KHDN.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.