textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record temperatures and gusty winds are expected this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated storms develop this evening, mainly north of I-70.

- Rain and snow showers increase in coverage late tonight into Tuesday with a few inches of mountain snow above 9,000 feet. - Mild conditions continue Wednesday and beyond with additional snowfall for mountain locales above 9,000-10,000 feet.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1052 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

As a low pressure system approaches from the west on today, southwesterly flow takes over and ushers in slightly warmer air. This will help a few locations flirt with record-high temperatures, but that will be highly dependent on cloud coverage throughout the day. Current satellite trends support this potential with clearing visible ahead of the shortwave trough. Gusty winds are also expected this afternoon as a low pressure system and it's attendant jet streak spread overhead. There is a high probability for valley wind gusts up to 30-40 mph with mountain wind gusts as high as 55 mph.

As low pressure approaches this evening, an uptick in synoptic forcing, moisture and instability will result in rain/snow showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly along and north of the I-70 corridor. Shower coverage increases late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the cold front moves through. This will help to lower snow levels and provide extra forcing for ascent. The showers begin to diminish on Tuesday afternoon as trough exits the region. By then, this mild, quick-hitting system is expected to produce 2-6" of new snow along the spine of the Park Range and eastern Uintas. 1-4" is expected above 9,000 feet for the remaining northern mountains and the central mountains. Minor impacts from the snow are possible at pass level late tonight and tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1052 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

A busier, although not particularly impactful, progressive pattern takes hold Wednesday. Transitory ridging behind tomorrow's weak cold front will bring another spring-like day before the action returns.

An open wave moving onto the continent from the Pacific Northwest taps into some cooler air that will send another weak cold front through the area on Thursday night . This will produce some additional mountain snow and valley rain. Snow levels lower with this system, but antecedent warm conditions continue to plague snowfall expectations. With much cooler air behind the cold front, the best snow rates look to arrive on Friday. The northern and central mountains have the highest potential for impactful accumulating snow, while down south in the San Juans it's looking pretty meager with light accumulations up high.

Precipitation tapers off by early Saturday morning. Models suggest the positively tilted trough gets stretched Friday and beyond by the zonal Polar Jet well to our north, leaving a pinched off low to form over northern Baja. Spaghetti plots stay somewhat aligned with this solution at the moment. This could place us in a quiet, warm'ish, col northeast of the cutoff Baja low next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1052 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Strong wind gusts are expected at TAF sites today, with the strongest gusts of 25-35 knots at terminals along and north of the I-70 corridor, especially mountain terminals. Rain and mountain snow is expected to develop across northern and central UT/CO, but most TAF sites impacts are not expected until 06Z. Before then, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at KVEL, KHDN, KRIL, KEGE, and KASE this evening, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF forecasts at this time.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.