textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- High elevation snowfall has begun tonight across the Northern and Central mountains, and will linger through Thursday. Hazardous travel conditions over mountain passes are possible for the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

- The higher elevations of the northern Colorado mountains have the highest probability 12+ inch of snow. The remainder of the northern and central high country looks to be in the 4-8 inch range above 9,000 feet.

- Gusty winds accompany this system, with 50-60 mph gusts expected up high, and 30-40 mph gusts across the northern valleys.

- Warm and quiet conditions return Thursday and last into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 106 PM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Light scattered showers continue across the northern ans central Colorado mountains with snow levels running 8-9,000 feet. The Park mountains have seen 8-12 inches new snow while the higher elevations of the Flat Tops and Elk Mountains have a few inches so far. Look for these showers to pick up overnight as a shortwave and associated cold front slides south after midnight into tomorrow morning providing some dynamics across the northern Colorado mountains, but additional snowfall will be limited as much drier air moves in behind the front. Still expect up to four more inches snow still possible with this system at the higher elevations before all is said and done. The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories are still on track to end at 9 PM and midnight tonight respectively. Though the snow may end overnight, the colder air behind the front will cause the high mountain roads and passes of northern and central Colorado, especially Rabbit Ears and Vail Passes to become icy. Drive with care if you have to be out tonight. Temperatures will warm to 10 to 15 degrees above normal tomorrow, about like today, but with the cool northwesterly flow aloft and the clear skies, temperatures will cool to about five to ten degrees above normal Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 106 PM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Anomalously high moisture will be pooled to the south and west on Friday, as the Western Slope remains under mostly dry northwesterly flow. Stronger winds from a weak upper level jet will mix down to the surface in the afternoon, bringing breezy surface conditions and gusts of 25-30 mph. Otherwise, conditions will be quiet. In the meantime, a cutoff area of low pressure will be sitting and spinning well off the coast of Northern California. This low finally gets caught up by the flow Saturday and will track toward the West Coast, finally moving inland on Sunday. Ahead of the low, the West Coast ridge will gradually flatten, and flow over eastern Utah and western Colorado will turn zonal to southwesterly. This will tap into that remnant pool of moisture, increasing PWATs to 170-220% of normal by Sunday. Showers will begin Sunday night, as westerly flow favors orographic lift, and a modest 80-90 knot jet noses in aloft. The orientation of the moisture pool and placement of the jet will favor the northern mountains, at least to start. Diffluent flow develops aloft as the low tracks into the Great Basin, adding some extra lift and reinvigorating shower activity. There is good model consensus to this point, but discrepancies begin cropping up by Monday morning, as some guidance takes the low into Arizona and New Mexico, while others track it over the Four Corners. The Four Corners track is traditionally the most favorable for snow over the southern mountains, as it maximizes southerly to southwesterly orographics. Either way, as it stands, by Monday into Tuesday, activity should transition southward, away from the northern ranges. Temperatures remain warm throughout the period, running 10-15 degrees above normal. This warmth could spell trouble for snow accumulations in the mountains, but we shall wait and see.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1040 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Scattered rain and high elevation snow in the mountains from KGUC north will diminish through the afternoon, becoming more isolated after 00Z through 12Z. Expect periods of MVFR to LIFR conditions due to snow, fog and low cloud cover with conditions below ILS breakpoints mostly at KHDN, KASE, and KEGE. Terrain will also be obscured through the northern and central Colorado mountains. Strong wind gusts of 20-30 kts are possible at most TAF sites with some gusty winds continuing overnight at KGUC and KHDN. Otherwise, winds will settle down overnight into tomorrow morning.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for COZ004. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ010- 013. UT...None.