textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry and windy conditions continue Saturday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of the area meeting criteria where the fuels are critical for today and Saturday.

- A deep trough dips into the Great Basin Sunday afternoon, bringing precipitation chances to northeast UT and northwest CO. Strong outflow gusts are possible near thunderstorms.

- Mountain snow returns Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Freezing temperatures are expected to impact portions of the region Monday and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1041 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

STRONG STORM WINDS TODAY:

Early Saturday, a trough will dig southwards through the western CONUS and towards our CWA, prompting our next round of active weather. There really isn't much moisture with this system at the surface, but moister mid-levels paired with ample heating due to spotty cloud cover early Saturday will support short-lived thunderstorms across the northern CWA. CAM's are keying in on inverted-V atmospheric profiles and steep low-level lapse rates, which would support powerful downdrafts and outflow winds. As of now, storm coverage is looking best within the Central Yampa River Basin between 2PM Saturday through the early evening period. Even so, outflows could travel as far as the I-70 corridor. Red flag conditions are in place in these regions, and so fire weather conditions could be exacerbated should outflow winds reach these regions.

MOISTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY:

As the low sweeps through on Sunday and Monday, flow around the base of the trough moistens, and wetter conditions move over the CWA. Active weather will continue, but Sunday and Monday's storms should be better precipitation producers with surface conditions too moist to continue Saturday's wind threat. Temperatures will plummet within the trough though, leaving Sunday's highs near-normal and Monday's highs 10+ degrees below normal. This means another round of snowfall for our higher elevation regions. Favored ranges will be the Uintas and Park Range where temperatures will be the coldest. The NBM is very optimistic in the likelihood of advisory-level snowfall along the US-191 mountain corridor (>75% chance), but less optimistic on that same threat manifesting through Rabbit Ears Pass (30-40% chance). Other mountain passes across the CWA are expected to see under 4" of snow with higher values confined to above pass level.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES:

Precipitation will hang up on the Divide Tuesday and Wednesday with some afternoon showers left over in the northwest flow behind the departing trough. The rest of the area should begin to dry out Tuesday and Wednesday but below normal temperatures remain. Freezing temperatures will likely impact portions of the CWA Tuesday and Wednesday morning behind this cold front.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Mid to high level clouds will be passing through overnight with high based showers/virga with minimal impacts. This moisture however will lead to shower and thunderstorm development by Saturday afternoon. The main concern will be strong outflow winds in excess of 40 mph along and north of Interstate 70 into the evening hours. Strong gradient winds of 25 to 35 mph are also expected over eastern Utah ahead of the next approaching system.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1041 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Moister conditions are developing as a low pressure system approaches from the north. However, surface conditions will still reach critical fire weather thresholds Saturday across west-central Colorado and east-central Utah. This has prompted red flag warnings Saturday from noon through 8PM.

For the most part, gusts will be westerly to southwesterly at 30-40 mph. However, with thunderstorms capable of producing strong downdrafts north of I-70 (primarily within the Central Yampa River Basin), erratic outflow winds in excess of 45 mph could travel long distances and complicate surface conditions within these red flag regions. As convection develops, it'll be key to monitor the skies for virga showers, where strong gusts will be the most likely.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ203-205- 290-292. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ490.