textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds are expected tomorrow with gusts around 30-50 mph and upwards of 70 mph in the mountains.

- Snow showers increase in coverage and intensity late tonight. There is a potential for snow squalls between 2 AM and 9 AM.

- Gusty winds persist all day. Snow improves for the valleys tomorrow during the day although light snow will continue in the mountains.

- Another rounds of moderate to heavy snow is expected on Wednesday during the day. Wind gusts will again range from 25-50 mph and upwards of 60 mph in the mountains.

- A final round of snow is possible Friday, with drier conditions expected this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1213 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Shortwave trough make landfall along the West Coast is still on track to impact the region tonight and tomorrow. Moisture will gradually increase through out the day and by late evening light snow showers will develop across some of the western mountain ranges. Winds also increase overnight as the strong jet spreads overhead. The trough and associated cold front sweep through tomorrow morning centered around sunrise. The front will be moving fairly quick, but instability may allow for moderate to heavy rates for a few hours. Given the relatively warm temperatures at lower elevations it may be in the form of rain changing to snow. Higher elevation valleys will be cool enough for all snow, but roads temperatures may not support accumulation. There is a potential that rates could overcome that and the result would be slick spots. The other impact along this cold front will be wind gusts as these showers may allow for those strong winds to mix to the surface. These snow squalls could lower visibility drastically and cause travel issues that way too. The roads may go from dry to having a few inches in 0.5-1 hour with near white out. Those amounts are not enough to warrant winter weather advisories, but just know that conditions could change rapidly along this front. Conditions improve late morning especially for the valleys although the mountains will continue to see light orographic snow showers. Wind gusts of 30-50 mph will be common and as high as 70 mph in the mountains for most of the day. Blowing and drifting snow could still cause travel impacts on the passes even though the rates decrease. Snow levels drop to most of the valley locations in the evening, but many place will see lows around freezing. This sets the stage for which locations could see accumulating snow for the second round. The next shortwave approaches the area tomorrow night. This is when the coverage and rates increase especially for the mountains. Given the cooler temperatures overall snow may be able to accumulate on some of the roadways making for impacts on the morning commute.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

GFS and ECMWF guidance is confident in a second round of atmospheric river moisture arriving on Wednesday, producing another burst of precipitation across the region. This looks to be accompanied by another cold front as well, which should plummet afternoon highs to 5-10 degrees below normal across most high elevation locations (and closer to normal in basins and valleys). Overnight lows remain well above normal though. Regardless, the cooling temperatures look to bring most, if not all of the region above snow levels, resulting in widespread snow. Though snow is likely to dominate on Wednesday, low elevations within the Grand Valley and across the Four Corners region will still be too warm for much more than wet, potentially slushy snow and minimal accumulation generally under 2 inches. Meanwhile, our mountain ranges will continue to accumulate fluffier snowfall with additional accumulations of 6-12" and higher localized amounts expected on Wednesday into Thursday morning across all ranges.

Things begin to calm down Thursday afternoon as moisture begins to exit the region. However, some deterministic models indicate a shortwave could pass through on Friday, bringing one more bout of precipitation to western Colorado, focused on the San Juans and the Uncompahgre Plateau. Ensembles are less optimistic though, suggesting the trough will flatten out before arriving and losing the support needed to generate these additional accumulations. Even if we do get the favorable upper-level support, rising temperatures will hinder snow levels and ratios, so we are likely looking at lower accumulations even in the wetter scenario. NBM is peaking at ~50% chance of 6+" of additional accumulation over the Uncompahgre Plateau and <30% over other high elevation areas. We will elaborate more on this bonus round of precipitation when model guidance converges, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 431 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Passing mid and high level clouds continue to pass overhead, with increasing southwesterly winds aloft. This will induce LLWS concerns through the period, with nearly all terminals carrying LLWS. Cigs will lower through the next six hours, dropping below ILS breakpoints at KASE, KEGE, KRIL first by 06z, with other terminals by 12z. Southwesterly surface winds will remain elevated through the period, with gusts of 30 to 40 knots likely tonight, dropping to 20 to 30 knots after 12z. VFR conditions will prevail through 06z for all terminals. As precipitation coverage increases, vis will drop for most terminals. Prevailing MVFR to IFR mixes in between 06z and 12z, with prevailing IFR to LIFR after 12z.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ001-002-007- 008-014-020>022. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ003-005-023. Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ004-009-010-012-013-017>019. UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday for UTZ023-025-028.