textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Valley rain and mountain snow is forecast through late Wednesday night, with increased snowfall rates beginning Wednesday morning.

- Snow, mainly above 9000 ft, is possible over most ranges, but will favor the San Juans and central Colorado mountains through midweek. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect beginning 6 AM Wednesday.

- Much cooler temperatures can be expected over the next several days with below freezing overnight temperatures possible by Thursday morning in some higher valley locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY:

A low pressure system will bring widespread precipitation to our area through late Wednesday night, including valley rain and mountain snow. Water vapor imagery shows this low is currently centered over southern Nevada, and is allowing for southwesterly flow into our region today. Moisture advection in this flow is keeping precipitable water around 150 to 200% of normal for this time of the year, with the most anomalous atmospheric moisture favoring Colorado's higher terrain. Today the low will move eastward, bringing increased lift as the associated vorticity begins to advect into our CWA. Thus, the ongoing shower activity will increase in coverage through the day. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon today and tomorrow as well.

Traffic cameras are presently showing rain, but in higher elevation areas rain is expected to transition to snow or a rain/snow mix tonight as temperatures cool. The center of the low pressure system will move across western Colorado during the day Wednesday, providing substantial lift as it does so. Peak snowfall rates in the southern mountains are forecast to occur between 6 AM and 12 PM Wednesday, although snowfall could persist through Wednesday night. In the central and northern Colorado mountains snowfall rates should increase Wednesday morning, but peak rates are expected between noon and midnight. Snow levels look to drop to about 7000 ft Wednesday morning, but relatively warm road conditions leading up to this event introduces uncertainty about how much snow will accumulate, especially as temperatures warm and snow levels rise during the day. Melting and wet snow could result in slushy or icy road conditions so be sure to use caution if traveling through areas with snow, especially over mountain passes. Elevation based Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the San Juan Mountains and for Colorado's northern and central mountains beginning 6 AM Wednesday.

DRIER AND WARMER IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK:

Drier air moves into our region after the low pressure system moves east of the Rocky Mountains. The current forecast keeps precipitation chances low Thursday afternoon through Sunday, especially outside of the higher terrain areas. High temperatures are expected to remain below normal through Sunday, but should increase by 5 or 10 degrees from today's highs by the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Widespread showers and a few storms continue this afternoon and into the overnight hours as precip moves in from the south. Under these showers, IFR/MVFR conditions are expected due to low ceilings and visibilities. ILS breakpoints will be met for airfields in western Colorado through much of the day though VFR conditions will occur from time to time. These low ceilings and precipitation are expected through midweek.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday for COZ004-009-010-012-013. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ018-019. UT...None.