textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers continue across the region this afternoon ending northwest to southeast through the evening.

- Expect dry and warmer conditions through the weekend and into next week with temperatures warming back to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Monday.

- There is a slight chance for some mountain snow showers Tuesday, but confidence is low at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Radar and satellite imagery indicate the models are tracking well pushing this system through to the east across the central Colorado mountains. The precipitation is becoming more convective as the day heats up, especially down south. Expect a few thunderstorm possible through the afternoon over the Uncompahgre and the San Juans. Look for these showers to end northwest to southeast across eastern Utah and Western Colorado through the late afternoon and evening with only a few lingering snow showers along the Divide overnight. With the skies clearing out, the morning lows will run near normal to about five degrees below normal. The clear skies tomorrow will let temperatures rebound five to ten degrees over today's highs with the beginning of a warming trend, but radiative cooling tomorrow night will keep the snow covered valleys cold Sunday morning, near normal. Tomorrow will be a nice day with light northerly breezes and lots of sunshine.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

On Sunday morning, a closed low will be located off the northern Baja coast, and troughing will be dominant east of the Divide. For eastern Utah and western Colorado, we remain under a col between these features, with very light upper level flow. Combined with a dry airmass in place, this will keep things quiet and sunny, with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal.

The biggest question of the long term period is what will happen with the Baja low. Models do seem to be starting to come into agreement, with ensemble and deterministic guidance generally keeping the low well south of the Four Corners as it tracks east Tuesday. However, a wave in the northern stream flow drops into the Intermountain West around the same time, and, depending on the guidance, phases with the southern stream closed low. This would induce a broad area of weak dynamic lift across eastern Utah and western Colorado, and bring a chance of more widespread light mountain showers on Tuesday. Modest moisture will be present, with ensemble PWATs forecasted to be 100-130% of normal. In the event these two features don't phase, which currently seems the most likely solution as three of the four ensemble clusters favor it, that doesn't completely rule out a few light showers. The passing northern stream wave and upper level flow shifting to westerly to northwesterly could induce very light orographic showers over the northern Divide. Either way, blended guidance is currently not indicating any accumulations, liquid or frozen.

Both northern stream wave and southern stream low track east of the Divide by Wednesday morning, with high pressure starting to build in over the West Coast. This will keep dry northwesterly flow dominant over the Great Basin, and potentially bring some breezy conditions for the latter half of the week. Warm air advection also kicks in in earnest at this point. By Thursday temperatures will be 10-15, in some spots close to 20, degrees above normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Snow showers continue across much of the region this afternoon as the winter storm pushes through with MVFR and IFR conditions predominant at KHDN, KEGE, KASE, KGUC and KTEX. Expect showers to end northwest to southeast between about 22Z and 06Z with skies clearing out overnight. Conditions below ILS breakpoints will improve as the showers end. Northwesterly winds this afternoon gusting 20-25 kts will continue through about 03Z before dying down. Look for VFR conditions across the region as this system moves out of the area.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ004- 009-013. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ010- 012-017>019. UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for UTZ023.