textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions continue for the first half of the new week.

- A slightly cooler and more unsettled weather pattern sets up for Thursday and beyond, with low-end (<40%) chances of precipitation across the northern mountains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 221 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

A shortwave trough is progged to move across eastern Utah and western Colorado tomorrow. A quick-hitting surge of moisture accompanies this disturbance, but the preexisting dry air near the surface will be very hard to override with the limited forcing this system looks to provide. Similar to the waves of moisture we saw last week, tomorrow's will primarily result in increased cloud cover. High clouds move in from the west tonight, followed by mid-level clouds tomorrow morning and afternoon. Dry air makes a rapid return with clearer skies favored by tomorrow evening.

Otherwise, warm and dry conditions persist with high pressure overhead.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 221 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Zonal flow aloft will keep conditions dry and unusually mild across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, with high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. Our next system moves into the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and will just brush across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado on Thursday. The best moisture and forcing with this system is expected to track to our north. Therefore, the vast majority of the area will see increased cloud cover and high temperatures dropping from around 10 degrees above normal to around 5 degrees above normal. The only chances for precipitation will be across the northern Divide mountains, with low elevation rain and high elevation snow resulting in a trace to a half an inch of snow accumulation. There is about a 40% chance of around an inch of snow at the highest elevations. In addition, a 90-100 knot upper level jet will move over the northern half of the CWA Thursday and Friday, bringing breezy conditions with gusts of 20-30 mph possible.

Model agreement begins to breakdown for Friday onward. There are hints in the deterministic guidance that passing shortwaves in the westerly to northwesterly flow aloft will keep unsettled and showery conditions in the forecast across the north as we move into the weekend. Any snow accumulation will be minimal at best, with current guidance indicating a 70% chance of seeing under half an inch. Ensemble guidance does bring elevated PWATs of 100-140% of normal into the region starting with the Thursday system, which will result in high level clouds and fuel the aforementioned light mountain showers. This will also work to keep temperatures a bit more seasonable for early November, running near to 3-5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 957 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions continue through the period. A weak disturbance working across the Southwest will bring some mid and upper level ceilings to the region, but breakpoint conditions will not be a problem. Winds remain light and terrain driven, with a few terrain influenced gusts tomorrow afternoon. Skies clear and VFR conditions will close out this period Monday evening.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.