textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- A frontal passage will lead to scattered showers with some thunderstorms possible for the northern and central areas Thursday.

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect for east-central Utah and southwest Colorado from 1pm-7pm today.

- Drier conditions are expected this weekend with a return towards warm, above normal temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 550 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Due to a fuels update for southwest CO, Red Flag Warnings were expanded to include COZ207 today. Low relative humidity and high winds there today will produce critical fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 915 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

We continue to be situated under an upper level trough that will slowly begin to track eastward by the end of the week, giving way to a ridge of high pressure. In the meantime, temperatures will hover at or below normal for the next few days, before warming to above normal by Sunday. In terms of precipitation, Thursday afternoon will see the best chance (50-70%) for scattered showers with some thunderstorms possible across the northern part of our CWA. Although, accumulations appear to be quite minimal. As the shortwave trough and associated cold front push through the area into Thursday evening, precipitation chances have the ability to spread further south along the I-70 corridor and central mountains. Additionally, as a result of this system moving through, gusty winds will be present. Gusts will generally fall within the 25-30 mph range, with locally higher gusts possible. Critical fire weather conditions will exist for tomorrow afternoon, refer to the fire weather section for more on that. Friday will be mostly dry following the frontal passage with a chance (30%) for light showers in the northern mountains due to lingering moisture.

THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND:

As we move into Memorial Day weekend, conditions appear to be quite pleasant as the aforementioned ridge of high pressure begins to situate itself over the Intermountain West. As previously mentioned, temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees above normal with this ridge. Due to some lingering energy and available moisture, afternoon convection could be supported each day through the weekend, favoring the higher terrain. Beyond Sunday, another low pressure system will establish itself over the Pacific Northwest giving way to increased precipitation chances for our area Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 537 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

A trough of low pressure will dip south to around the I-70 corridor this afternoon, bringing showers and thunderstorms with the chance for breakpoint ceilings to KVEL, KHDN, KRIL, KEGE, and KASE. Winds will pick up briskly ahead of the trough, gusting to around 35 mph in spots with widespread gusts of 25-30 mph. Scattered to broken mid and upper level clouds will stream through the region outside of the shower activity over northeast UT and northwest CO. This fast moving trough will likely yield to VFR conditions this evening for most terminals. KHDN looks to remain under the influence of shower activity into early Friday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 915 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

A frontal passage associated with a shortwave trough will traverse the area Thursday. This will cause winds to increase throughout the area Thursday afternoon leading to widespread critical fire weather conditions for east-central Utah and west-southwest Colorado. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for these areas (UT Zone 490 and CO Zone 207 and 290) from 1pm-7pm Thursday. Localized critical fire weather conditions are possible elsewhere, but conditions will not meet Red Flag criteria.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ207-290. UT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for UTZ490.