textproduct: Grand Junction

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and storms will be possible over the higher terrain though convective coverage and intensity will be less than seen lately.

- Temperatures will gradually increase each day through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 915 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A noticeable decline in available moisture began last night and continues today. By this evening, PWATs will reach more normal values for this time of year. Despite a weak jet streak moving overhead, CAMs are still showing a down day with regards to convection. There will be some showers, and a few storms, that initiate off the higher terrain but coverage and intensity will be less, if not considerably so, than that seen on Friday. Deterministic models are showing almost no convection across the CWA while the NBM favors the San Juans and along the higher terrain for eastern portions of the CWA. Seems reasonable for now with PoPs of 30 to 50% for showers/storms over those areas. Sunday onwards, relatively dry conditions move back though the odd shower, thanks to daytime heating, can't be ruled out over favorable areas...looking at you San Juans. Previous model runs showed chances increasing for precip midweek onwards but latest guidance has now pushed most precip to the Front Range. Confidence remains low in the mid to long range forecast.

We have one more day of pleasant, near normal highs before a warmup kicks in Sunday onwards. By midweek, highs will return to anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above climatological normals.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 602 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A few light showers are lingering in northwestern Colorado, bringing lower ceilings and the possibility of light rain showers to KHDN. Showers are unlikely elsewhere this morning. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is expected today after 18Z, but the convection is forecast to favor the high terrain. So, TAF site impacts are possible at some mountain sites, but the chances are low. VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.

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