textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions highlight the forecast through mid week with the potential for record high temperatures tomorrow.

- Localized critical fire weather conditions continue today and tomorrow. Critical conditions become widespread on Wednesday, with Fire Weather Watches in effect accordingly.

- Dry thunderstorms could impact the region Wednesday, favoring the terrain of southwest Colorado.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

HOT, DRY, AND WINDY THROUGH MID WEEK:

High pressure will amplify across the Southwest early this week. This will push temperatures nearly 20 degrees over mid-May climatology, including some record highs. Monday's record of 90 degrees at Grand Junction has stood since 1934. Tuesday looks like the best bet for records though, as 500mb heights reach their peak then.

Well-mixed conditions should bring surface winds up each afternoon on the terrain. Hot, dry, windy conditions with relative humidities in the teens will produce localized critical fire weather Monday and Tuesday. As low pressure advects across the Great Basin Tuesday night, the pressure gradient tightens and drives up winds Wednesday afternoon. This will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions, so a Fire Weather Watch is in effect. Furthermore, some weak moisture works beneath the departing ridge on Wednesday and afternoon instability/orographics will likely produce convective showers/storms. Dry boundary layer conditions could lead to dry lightning and gusty outflow winds, especially over the San Juans.

LOOKING AHEAD:

Forecast confidence decreases beyond Wednesday as model spread amplifies. Blended guidance currently supports a brief "cool down" (although forecasted temperatures remain solidly above climatological normals) and a predominately dry pattern with periodic chances for orographic showers.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Wind gusts around 20 kts are forecast at most western Colorado sites this afternoon. Winds will become light and variable tonight. Clear skies are generally expected, but some high clouds may pass through the area during the forecast period. VFR conditions will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

High pressure will break down Wednesday. This results in an uptick in surface winds across the region following a period of anomalously warm temperatures and low relative humidities. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of western Colorado where relative humidities will be in the upper single digits to low teens, winds will be gusting up to 35 mph, and fuels are deemed critical. The watch may need to be expanded if the preceding conditions result in the expansion of critical fuels.

SPC has also highlighted portions of southwest Colorado as having a 10 percent chance for dry thunderstorms thanks to some moisture sneaking beneath the ridge on Wednesday afternoon.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ200-202-290-292. UT...None.