textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry, windy conditions will produce pockets of critical fire weather conditions today, favoring southwest CO.

- Temperatures continue to climb this week, warming 5 to 15 degrees above normal by the weekend.

- We will see increasing chances for showers/storms over the higher terrain through mid week, with the potential for continued convection through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

WARM AND DRY TODAY:

Relative humidity will be in the single digits for areas along and south of I-70, mainly focused across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, with some occasionally breezy conditions. This will lead to elevated to critical fire weather concerns, but coverage and duration continue to fall below Red Flag Warning criteria. Otherwise, warming temperatures highlight today's forecast for most locales. Lingering moisture from the low pressure system over the weekend could also lead to the development of isolated showers and storms over the central Divide mountains this afternoon.

MOISTURE RETURNS BY MID WEEK:

They synoptic pattern over the CONUS will pull Gulf moisture into the southern half of the forecast area by mid week. Isolated showers and storms develop over the San Juan mountains tomorrow, with a noticeable uptick in coverage on Wednesday afternoon due to stronger moisture advection and the passage of a shortwave trough. There's still some spread in the strength and coverage of the moisture advection between ensemble families, so there will likely be adjustments to the PoP forecast as we hone in on the most probable solution. Afternoon convection continues into the latter half of the week, but a lack of synoptic support will likely decrease the coverage of showers and storms and confine convection to the higher terrain.

LOOKING AHEAD:

Strengthening southwesterly flow will likely lead to unseasonably warm and dry conditions for the upcoming weekend. While it is too early to dive into the specifics, we will likely see an increasing threat for critical fire weather conditions with breezy winds and temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal. There is still a lot of spread in surface moisture between ensemble families, but the general thought is that there will be enough dry air at the surface for elevated to critical fire weather concerns area wide.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to remain in place at terminals this TAF period. Non zero chances remain for isolated showers and/or thunderstorms to form on terrain west of the Continental Divide this afternoon. Did not include verbiage in TAFs to amount for this at our terminals, as confidence is too low both geographically and metorologically speaking. Winds will pick up this afternoon westerly and gust to around 20-25 mph, then settle back to light drainage winds overnight for the valleys.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.