textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- An additional 1-2" of rain is expected over the high terrain through Monday, with locally higher amounts likely over the Uintas. Flooding/flash flooding remains possible, but not probable.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect through 6 AM Monday with valley wind gusts up to 40-50 mph. Gusts upwards of 50-60 are possible over the high terrain. - Thunderstorms this afternoon may be capable of producing damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and small hail.

- Wet weather continues into the new week, with increasing chances for accumulating snow at pass level.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

REMNANTS OF RACHEL BRINGS GUSTY WINDS, STRONGER STORMS:

Rachel made its transition from a tropical cyclone to an extra- tropical system near Las Vegas this morning. As Rachel's remnants continue to advect north/northeastward over the next 24 hours, increasing wind gusts and wet weather will drive the forecast. Impacts peak this afternoon through the overnight hours.

With effective wind shear increasing to upwards of 50 knots across the region this afternoon, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging wind gusts and quick bursts of heavy rain being the primary threats. We have medium confidence in this potential as we did see some clearing across the region this morning, but with cloud cover already increasing, we may not be able to tap into peak daytime heating to give storms that extra boost of energy. Regardless of storm strength, 40-50 mph wind gusts are anticipated across much of eastern Utah and western Colorado through the overnight hours. As a result, a Wind Advisory is in effect through 6 AM Monday. It won't take much enhancement from convective activity to see a few damaging wind gusts over 58 mph. Stronger gusts are also possible over the higher terrain of eastern Utah.

Due to fast storm motions, flooding impacts may be hard to come by unless we see stronger storms start to train over the same locations. With soils becoming more saturated and an array of flood- prone terrain across the forecast area, we will continue to monitor the potential for flooding and flash flooding over the next 24 hours, but confidence in flooding impacts is not high enough to issue a Flood Watch at this time.

CONTINUED WET WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK:

After the main surge of tropical moisture moves off to the northeast early tomorrow morning, PWATs remain elevated enough for continued showers and isolated storms on Monday and Tuesday, especially over the higher terrain. Breezy winds remain in place as well with an upper-level in place ahead of a very slow- moving low pressure system. Therefore, plenty of synoptic support will be in place to bring precipitation to the valleys from time to time. There's still some uncertainty in the ensemble guidance, but generally speaking, low pressure breaks down late Wednesday with northwesterly flow driving the forecast in its wake. This will bring cooler and drier conditions to the forecast area for the latter half of the week.

A cold front is expected to drop across the region as the low pressure system moves through. This will drop snow levels to 8,000- 10,000 feet by Wednesday. As a result, area mountain ranges will see their first widespread shot of snow for the season. There is a 30- 60% chance of minor winter weather impacts at pass level over the Uintas and San Juans, with lesser probabilities elsewhere. Be ready for sloppy winter driving conditions, but broadly speaking we are not anticipating widespread winter weather impacts at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Breakpoint conditions are expected to persist through much of this TAF period. Tropical moisture will continue to stream into the region this afternoon bringing periods of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms. A few stronger storms are possible and will be capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain. Strong wind gusts up to 30-40 kt are expected outside of thunderstorms. Winds will begin to die down and showers will diminish overnight, leaving low to mid-level clouds in their place tomorrow morning.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ001-002-020-021. UT...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ022-027-029.