textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated afternoon showers and storms possible through Friday.

- Gusty winds return today, with afternoon gusts around 25-35 mph for much of the region.

- Precipitation chances return for the holiday weekend, with peak coverage expected Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1016 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

WINDY AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY:

The current synoptic level pattern is characterized by a trough moving into the PacNW and a ridge beginning to develop over the Southern Plains. As a result of this building trough, tightening pressure gradient contours aloft will make for stronger winds aloft. This, in addition to ample daytime heating today and Friday will make for periods of those stronger winds mixing down to the surface. Hence, afternoon gusts of 25-35 mph are expected for parts of the area, with the highest coverage of gusts being north of I-70. Dry air works its way into the area today, keeping precipitation chances pretty low to finish off the workweek. However, some isolated afternoon convection should not be ruled out completely for the higher terrain areas today and Friday.

RETURN OF MOISTURE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND:

As we become sandwiched between the aformentioned troughing to our northwest and ridging to our southeast, flow aloft will be mostly southwesterly. This continues to be favorable flow for moisture advection into our area. Each day, we should see an increase in shower and storm chances, with Sunday and Monday being the peak in precipitation coverage. Models are also hinting at shortwaves rotating around the periphery of the PacNW low, which could lead to increased forcing, further enhancing precipitation development. Additionally, models are in agreement that PWATs upwards of 200% of normal are expected for much of the area. Because of all this, the potential for heavy rainfall exists, therefore the potential for flash flooding and debris flows also exists. This threat is particularly heightened where soils have reached peak saturation over the past few rounds of showers and storms.

Beyond Monday, model outcomes begin to diverge from each other. The GFS appears to be heavy handed bringing in a second tropical system over the Baja Peninsula late next week, which most other models do not have a strong signal on. So at this time, there is uncertainty with how long we hold onto moisture chances next week and therefore forecast confidence remains low beyond Monday. As for temperatures, daytime highs appear to hover around normal, if not below at times of cloud cover and precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Lingering moisture over the southern mountains will lead to isolated to widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon with gusty outflow winds. Drier conditions are expected elsewhere with afternoon gusts in the 25 to 30 mph possible at several TAF sites. Otherwise VFR prevails over the next 24 hours.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.