textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry weather continues with a chance to set daily high temperature records each afternoon through the weekend.

- Critical fire weather conditions develop under a hot, dry, and windy regime Wednesday and Thursday.

- A pattern shift is expected after this weekend, potentially bringing cooler and less dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1023 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:

A ridge of pressure centered just south of the Four Corners is responsible for record temperatures today and Thursday. There is midlevel moisture advecting in from the west, that will result in cloud cover. An isolated shower is possible north of of I-70 this afternoon and evening. It is more likely to produce gusty winds than measurable precipitation. A system moving across the northern US tomorrow will flatten the ridge and allow cooler air to filter into the region. High temperatures only cool down about 5 degrees, despite that they will still be within record values. The pressure gradient increases tomorrow as the ridge continues to flatten. A weak shortwave rotating around the high tracks overhead tomorrow as well. It may interact with the moisture and cold front and produce scattered showers in and around the northern and central mountains. Once again gusty winds are more probable than measurable rain.

PATTERN SHIFT:

A pattern shift is in the forecast as high pressure continues to drift southward. Friday will be fairly dry, but remain windy across the area. Moisture advection this weekend will support low end chances for precipitation, but there is a lack of forcing. Models are showing the potential for a more amplified longwave trough to move across the western CONUS early next week. This system could bring more seasonable temperatures and increased precipitation chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 524 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Gusty surface winds will start subsiding in the next hour or so giving way to a tranquil overnight. Some upper level clouds will stream overhead but won't pose any aviation concerns. More mixing tomorrow will bring another day of gusty winds between 25 to 30kts. Might see some LLWS for KHDN but left out for now...as well as KEGE and KASE.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1019 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected in northwestern Colorado this afternoon and again tomorrow. Isolated showers could produce strong gusty winds as well. Friday looks to be the driest day of the week, but decreased wind gusts may keep critical fire weather conditions localized. Temperatures trend lower, and relative humidity gradually trends upward this weekend, although stronger afternoon gusts return as well.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ200-202. UT...None.