textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- An upper level disturbance and surface cold front will bring another round of snow tomorrow into Monday for the mountains of Colorado. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for 4 to 8 inches of new snow as the system moves through.

- Cooler temperatures have moved in today and a reinforcing shot of cold air will move in on Monday as highs drop to below normal.

- Another winter storm may move through midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

The snowfall from this morning's shortwave has ended with plenty of sunshine now being felt across the CWA along with some high clouds. North through northwesterly flow behind this wave will cause high temps to drop a few degrees this afternoon from what we saw yesterday, despite the sunshine. The next system to affect our area is currently a weak midlevel circulation located over Washington State. Overnight, this feature will drop southeast through the Great Basin and tap into some moisture as it does so. By tomorrow morning, the weak circulation will be in the base of an upper level trough, supporting a surface cold front. Light snow will begin Sunday morning for the northern half of the CWA and as the trough and front move through, snowfall will become more widespread. Lift will be maximized along the front Sunday evening through early Monday morning which is when the heaviest snow is expected over the Elks and West Elks and then San Juans. Issued several Winter Weather Advisories to account for this snowfall with 4 to 8 inches of new snow possible with some higher amounts expected for the highest elevations. Once the front and trough move off, clearing skies and cooler temperatures will move in thanks to a reinforcing shot of cold air from the northwest. High temps are expected to drop below early December normals.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Ensembles are in good agreement of a shortwave ejecting southwards through the western CONUS through the mid-week. The moisture accompanying this feature isn't overly impressive, but PWAT's will still be 125-175% of normal. Though confidence in the development of this shortwave is high, the behavior of it is not so well understood yet. Tuesday into early Wednesday, it's likely that the low will center over the Great Basin and little precipitation for us. Models diverge beginning Wednesday afternoon with the ECMWF suggesting the low will close and shift deeper into the Desert Southwest, whereas the GEFS believes the wave will remain open and begin a slow southeastward transit through our CWA. In spite of this notable difference, both ensembles pull enough moisture through the area to drop some mild snow over the high terrain through Thursday. Even so, the lack of strong forcing is keeping current snowfall forecasts on the low end and confined to the mountain ranges. Though the details of this storm are up in the air, we're trending towards low-impact weather and little snow to add to the slopes.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 409 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected until late tomorrow morning, which is when showers begin to fill in from the west. By the afternoon showers become more widespread, and could result in IFR/MVFR conditions at times.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to noon MST Monday for COZ004-013. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to noon MST Monday for COZ009-010-012. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to noon MST Monday for COZ018-019. UT...None.