textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog will develop overnight in the typical fog-prone valleys.

- Warm and dry conditions return this weekend before the pattern shifts to a cooler and unsettled one with the potential for more mountain snow Tuesday onwards.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

As our departing weather system slides off to the east, low stratus and fog will settle in tonight in its wake. However, dry air is progged to overwrite the moisture by midday, so areas of fog will likely lift before noon.

High pressure brings unseasonably warm and dry conditions back to the region this weekend leading to a rather benign weather period. Winds increase across the high country Sunday afternoon as an upper- level jet slides in from the northwest.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

An active weather period is in store for the coming week following a quiet, warm and dry weekend. By Monday, a large low pressure trough will set up across the west with a closed low approaching the California coast. This closed low gets absorbed by another low dropping down the Pacific Northwest coast forming the overall deeper trough across the west. As this happens, a strong upper level jet will set up across SoCal and across the Great Basin, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in strong southwest winds mixing down to the surface Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Wind gusts potentially could be in the 25 to 40 mph range for the valleys with higher gusts for the mountains as H7 winds increase to 40 to 50 kts.

Temperatures will be warm ahead of this first shortwave trough that will move through the base of the large scale trough Monday night through Tuesday with some Atmospheric River moisture moving into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region across our area Monday night into Tuesday as PWAT anomalies climb to around 200 percent of normal. This starts the period of unsettled weather with widespread mountain snow and valley rain. Another disturbance looks to move through late Wednesday into Thursday while strong jet dynamics remain in place through the end of the week to support continued showery precipitation from Tuesday onwards. Temperatures are expected to cool Tuesday onwards with the coldest air moving in with the Wednesday evening into Thursday disturbance. This is the system where some lower valleys could see some snowfall. Models aren't in the best synoptic agreement beyond Thursday but it still looks to remain unsettled through at least Friday.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing of these waves, the exact timing of the cold air as well as the depth of these shortwave troughs which could have an impact on total snowfall accumulations. So will need to iron out these details as better model consensus is achieved, so changes are expected as we get closer to these events. Confidence is beginning to increase that we will see cooler, unsettled weather with mountains finally getting some decent snow accumulation Tuesday through much of the coming week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Skies are beginning to clear from the northwest across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado, but rain and snow showers will still continue overnight for southern and central areas before precipitation moves out of the region by 12Z Saturday. Many central and southern sites could drop to MVFR to LIFR conditions and go below ILS breakpoints at times due to showers. Some areas of fog are possible through Saturday morning as well. Conditions will improve from the northwest through the night into Saturday morning with VFR and mostly sunny skies returning to the region by 18Z Saturday. Dry and quiet conditions are expected through the day on Saturday with light, terrain driven winds.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.