textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions persist into early next week for most.

- There is a 10-30% chance for light rain/snow in the higher terrain this afternoon and early evening. Impacts are not anticipated.

- A pattern shift to cooler and wetter conditions looks to develop by Tuesday and is likely to persist though the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 104 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

A low pressure over the Baja has allowed some mid level moisture to sneak into the forecast area. As that low and the associated trough axis, which extends northward over the Great Basin, progress eastward toward us there is a slight chance for light snow showers or sprinkles in higher elevations this afternoon and early evening. Impacts will be minimal to non existent. Elsewhere, is experiencing partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. Quiet and mild weather is expected tonight, although less clouds may lead to cooler temperatures than this morning. Slight ridging into zonal flow sets up tomorrow therefore the weather stays quiet and temperatures will be similar to today with mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 104 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

A frontal boundary across the northwestern CONUS is expected to pass near the northern portions of our CWA early on Tuesday according to deterministic and ensemble models. Region-wide temperatures should already be falling as the ridge overhead flattens, but depending on the location of the front, areas near and north of US-40 may receive an especially strong drop in temperatures early in the morning. Not only this, but the front should be accompanied by a narrow band of moderate AR moisture too. The GEFS and ECMWF Ens are not in good agreement yet on the details of this system though. This may in part be due to the complex upper-level pattern further west into the Pacific where two closed lows will influence the overarching pattern across the western CONUS. Should reality favor the GEFS solution, moisture and forcing will mostly reside to our north, while the ECMWF solution would likely lead to better precipitation over the northern Colorado mountains and Uintas.

Moderate southwesterly flow re-establishes across the Desert Southwest and central Rockies on Wednesday as a positively tilted trough develops over the western CONUS. Upper-level support improves during this period with the presence of a strengthening jet streak. AR moisture picks up during this phase of the storm as well, and decreasing temperatures in part thanks to the fresh snowpack should lead to increased snow ratios. This all sets up for a more active and snowy middle to end of next week. Support looks to be most favorable on Wednesday when the nose of the jet streak sits over us, but active weather is expected to persist at least through Friday as moisture lingers.

Considering the lengthy duration of this storm paired with the low confidence nature of model guidance, snow accumulations are still highly variable. For context, the spread of NBM 25th-75th percentile snow totals is exceeding 8" across most, if not all mountain ranges, a spread which has remained steady for many runs now. It's highly likely that this storm will be one of our better snow events in quite a while, but we will need model-to-model consistency to improve much more before we can speculate on the details.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1020 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

There is a low chance for showers within the vicinity of KTEX this afternoon. Probabilities are low enough that we have opted to withhold any mention of showers in the KTEX TAF. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear, winds are light and terrain-driven, and VFR conditions prevail.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.