textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Rivers and other waterways across southwest Colorado and southeast Utah remain elevated due to runoff. A few Flood Warnings remain in effect for those impacted areas.

- Valley rain and mountain snow will continue through late tonight and early tomorrow morning, respectively. 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected above 10,000 feet across parts of the central Colorado mountains where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

- Warmer and drier conditions highlight the remainder of the seven-day forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1118 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY:

A fast moving low pressure system currently centered over eastern Utah will bring rain and mountain snow to our region through very early tomorrow morning. Rivers in southwest Colorado and southeast Utah that have continued flooding concerns from the recent prolonged rainfall event, such as the San Juan River, the Mancos River, and the Los Pinos River, are not expected to be impacted much if at all from today's rainfall as even high end (1 in 10 chance) forecasts have the liquid precipitation at or below 0.3 inches in the Four Corners area. However, there is potential for stronger convection, particularly along the Utah/Colorado border, that does increase concerns for localized flash flooding. Especially if storms producing heavier rainfall develop over flood-prone or already saturated areas.

Snowfall is expected through very early tomorrow morning, with the strongest snowfall rates forecast to occur this evening over the central Colorado mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect this afternoon through 5 AM tomorrow morning for a portion of Colorado's central mountains, including the Gore and Elk Mountains, above 10,000 feet for 4 to 8 inches of snow. Snow levels are forecast to drop to around 7,000 feet tonight, but accumulations below 10,000 feet are expected to only be around 1 to 4 inches. Use caution if traveling as hazardous conditions could develop.

DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND:

Beyond Thursday morning, the forecast overall looks to trend much drier. A quick moving shortwave skirts the region across the north on Friday which could bring some increased clouds and a few light rain or snow showers over the Divide. A broad ridge of high pressure moves in late this week into the coming weekend, with temperatures warming to above seasonable levels and providing a much needed break from the recent wet weather.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 444 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue this evening with thunderstorm activity lessening by sunset and becoming more showery. Low CIGS will occur at mountain TAF sites and some valley locations periodically where showers pass through but overall, anticipate VFR to MVFR conditions with IFR in any showers due to low cigs/vsby with valley rain and snow at mountain TAF sites. Mountain obscurations are also likely as this quick moving system moves through overnight with clearing behind it from the west between 06Z and 12Z. Cannot rule out some low stratus/fog in some valley locales overnight after this system exits the region but confidence was too low to put in the TAF at this time. After 12Z, expect a few clouds with clearing skies and dry VFR conditions through Thursday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1118 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Flooding concerns remain heightened across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. While many rivers continue to recede and have fallen below minor flood and action stage, low lying areas are still saturated and some rivers and creeks still remain in minor to moderate flood stage. Locations further downstream will see delayed impacts with some having only recently crested and others yet to crest over the next 24 hours. The Mancos River in particular as well as the San Juan River through the Four Corners and towards Bluff and Mexican Hat still are expected to remain above flood stage through at least today or tomorrow. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures. Visit water.noaa.gov for the latest river forecasts in your area.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ010. UT...None.