textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Monday through Thursday is expected to be mostly dry with another impactful system possible by the weekend.

- Model guidance reflects some uncertainty in storm tracks, leading to inconsistencies in moisture and river volume forecasts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

CHILLY AND DRY WEEK:

Near-zonal flow is established across the Intermountain West today, maintaining relatively dry conditions for our CWA. This keeps precipitation chances near-zero for most locations with little more than scattered cloud cover expected. We're sitting near-normal in terms of high temperatures as well, leaving valleys in the 50's to low-60's, and mountain locations in the 40's to low-50's. Though we continue to dry out steadily the next few days, some valley locations may still experience fog around sunrise which may impact morning commutes.

NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND:

As flow turns southwesterly ahead of a PacNW low, moisture begins its return to the region. The first signs of this pattern shift are expected on Friday as isolated storms will begin to pop up, though at this point QPF should be on the minimal side. By Sunday though, moisture will be hitting its peak in our CWA. As guidance stands there is little confidence in the exact trajectory of the broad moisture plume. If we are to lean one way or another, more evidence is suggesting that the strongest portion of the plume will pass to our south, though even in this scenario, southwestern Colorado is in line for yet another wet stretch with PWAT's up to 300% of normal. Adding to the complexity of this event is the progression of the upper-level pattern. As the PacNW low propagates eastwards towards the northern Rockies, a second low develops at the base of the trough, swinging through the southwestern portion of the county before eventually rejoining the parent trough early in the work week. The movement of both lows would likely have significant impacts on the nature of this storm system as temperatures will plummet to around 10 degrees below normal with their passage. This could be enough to drop snow level 1-2 kft. The complex pattern continues to lead to weak confidence in the timing and location of any eventual snowfall though, and as such we cannot yet speculate on how impacts will manifest from said snowfall. What we can say now though is that any notable amount of precipitation over southwestern Colorado locations recovering from last week's rainfall will have the potential to exacerbate flooding concerns. We are keeping a very close eye on this next round of precipitation as a result, and over the coming days as more details come into view we will begin to better gauge the risks Sunday into Monday morning. As such, stay tuned for additional information throughout this week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period. A few clouds will stream across northwest CO and northeast UT today, but breakpoints are not expected. Stronger winds aloft will produce some LLWS at a few terminals as winds decouple this evening.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.