textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding and high flows along the San Juan river is ongoing across portions of southeast Utah, and is expected to continue through late Monday.

- Mountain passes could see minor snowfall amounts on roadways by Monday morning as this storm system exits to the northeast.

- Monday through Thursday is expected to be mostly dry, but another impactful system is possible next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Showers have become more isolated this evening as the low pressure system lifts northeast across northwest Colorado and exits to the northeast. Hi-res CAMs indicate most activity winding down by midnight and moving onto the Front Range east of the Divide by Monday morning. We could however still see some lingering orographic showers over the northern and central Divide Monday morning with light snow. Very little snow accumulation is expected but conditions could be slick in the morning over the passes.

DRIER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

Much drier air moves in Monday and lasts through at least mid week as a shortwave high pressure ridge slides overhead Monday. A couple shortwave troughs will push across the Intermountain West from the PacNW Monday night through Tuesday night, resulting in a breezy southwest flow Tuesday afternoon and some light showers possible over the northern mountains. Overall conditions remain dry with little in the way of precipitation through mid week as temperatures hover around 5 degrees below normal with a warmup towards normal or slightly above by Thursday.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND:

Southwest flow will begin to advect some moisture off the Pacific late Thursday into Friday, resulting in increased cloud cover. Models are not in the best agreement beyond Friday with regards to how to handle this influx of Pacific moisture but showers are possible Friday afternoon, particularly over the southern and central Divide as a shortwave trough skirts the Front Range from the southwest. A deeper trough moves into the west Sunday into early next week but the jury is out on what this means for our weather. While conditions look to turn more unsettled with increasing moisture from the Pacific, there are discrepancies between models and model runs on timing, how cold it might get, and the duration of said moisture as some of the latest model runs are showing a more progressive solution than earlier runs. This is still a ways out but due to poor model agreement and poor model consistency, will hold off on discussing too much detail yet. This is the next system to watch, which could result in a return to cooler and unsettled conditions with potential for mountain snowfall.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1118 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Dense stratus is beginning to break up late this morning, and by the afternoon we expect for VFR conditions to be restored at all terminals. Conditions dry out marginally over the next 24 hours, but some locations may again see dense stratus Tuesday morning, primarily ASE, EGE, DRO, GUC, HDN, and VEL. TAF's include scattered lower cigs for these terminals as a result. It is uncertain how low cigs will be and if they will become broken or overcast for any period, but cigs at these terminals are at risk of briefly reaching ILS breakpoints around sunrise. As it stands now though, few to scattered cloud cover looks to be the likeliest scenario. Winds will be light and terrain-driven throughout the TAF period.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Most rivers have receded below flood stage although moderate flooding is still ongoing along the San Juan river in southeast Utah as the peak crests that went through the Four Corners yesterday evening are progressing through Bluff as of Sunday evening and are making their way towards Mexican Hat. The high flows are expected to continue into late Monday before waters recede below flood stage. Conditions are dry Monday through Thursday. There is the potential for another impactful system late week and next weekend.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.