textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions persist through the weekend, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- Unseasonable warmth is expected Thursday and Friday, with highs close to 20 degrees above normal. While not widespread, some locations especially north of the I-70 corridor may come within a few degrees of record highs.

- A pattern shift to wetter conditions is possible next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 253 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Low and mid level cloud cover is still hanging around the northern and central Divide mountains early this morning as the robust jet streak associated with the deeper trough over the Midwest remains overhead. Cloud cover will slowly erode through the morning as this jet departs to the east with the high pressure ridge nudging itself a bit further eastward. Elsewhere, skies are mostly clear promoting efficient radiational cooling for a rather cold night despite lows also averaging 5 to 10 degrees above normal. We are currently under the influence of a Rex Block with the ridge across the western CONUS and a cut off low over the Baja undercutting this ridge, leading to a fairly stagnant pattern of quiet, dry and unseasonably warm conditions. High temperatures today will continue to be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. This high pressure ridge will continue nudging further east as a trough approaches the west coast and tries to absorb the Baja low. This will lead to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures rising to 15 to 20 degrees above normal by Thursday as the ridge axis becomes negatively tilted in a line from New Mexico through Utah and Colorado.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 253 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

A heavily amplified ridge over the West will keep things warm and dry in the extended forecast. Temperatures are expected to remain in excess of 15 degrees above climatology beneath the ridge. The blocky nature of the synoptic pattern will suppress potential for any moisture to penetrate the interior west the remainder of the week. A disturbance working ashore in the PACNW this weekend could drive an open wave across the Great Basin, sending some upper level moisture across the West, but likely only resulting in cloud cover here on the West Slope. Non zero chances for some flurries on the higher terrain of the San Juans and Central Mountains materialize Saturday afternoon, but this looks like a very thin chance to hang any hopes on. This junky pattern will stick around Sunday too, but precipitation chances remain low at this point. Models continue to send progressive shortwaves through the region Monday and Tuesday. Ensembles are bullish on some moisture making its way through by Tuesday, with the major mountain groups seeing enough moisture to produce some potential rain/snow. Temperatures are expected to trend down too, as cloud cover and potential precipitation disrupt the warmer and drier pattern next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 440 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure over the region will maintain VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. A few thin high clouds are possible, but skies remain clear otherwise. Winds will remain light and terrain driven through the period.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.