textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mountain snow will continue through this evening, mainly over the northern Divide mountains.

- Seasonal temperatures highlight the extended forecast with periodic chances for mountain snow through the end of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 223 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

The low pressure system responsible for yesterday and today's precipitation currently sits near the Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska border and will continue to propagate east/northeast throughout the rest of the day. This means that the coverage of valley rain and mountain is decreasing across the forecast area with areas along and north of I-70 seeing the highest potential for precipitation continuing this evening. While the center of the low has moved east of the local area, wrap around moisture continues to favor the northern Divide mountains resulting in light snow showers through the evening hours with little, if any, additional accumulation expected overnight.

Seasonal temperature highlight tomorrow's forecast with dry conditions for most. That being said, southwesterly flow aloft will begin to usher in the next round of moisture to the Four Corners region tomorrow. This moisture in tandem with upslope flow may be enough to support isolated to scattered showers across eastern Utah and into parts of southwest Colorado, but limited forcing will keep most locales dry. If it does rain (valleys) or snow (mountains), minimal impacts are expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 223 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

A low pressure system over the Desert Southwest will open up and looks to track northeastward across the Four Corners Wednesday evening into Thursday. Models haven't been the most consistent in terms of the evolution of this low and track but it does at least look like weather remains unsettled through the end of the week. Beyond this, yet another closed low looks to move down the west coast behind this disturbance and settles over the Desert Southwest this coming weekend. Models differ on the exact track of this system so low confidence on the details at this time. The GFS has this low tracking across the area Sunday into Monday as an open trough, while the ECMWF takes this low far enough south to result in minimal impact for our CWA. Would like to see better run to run consistency before discussing details on potential snowfall totals and what areas would be more favored. However, it does look like much of this coming week into the weekend will remain on the cooler side of normal more often than not and unsettled with periods of valley rain and mountain snow and more cloud cover than sun.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1055 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Showers will continue through the afternoon with mountain snow and valley rain, particularly at KASE, KHDN, KGUC, KEGE and KRIL with periods of MVFR/IFR and ILS breakpoints being reached due to lower CIGS. This current system will exit this evening with generally improving conditions and higher ceilings this evening into the overnight, although skies still will remain SCT to BKN.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ004-013. UT...None.