textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Sunny skies and warm temperatures will be the rule today as a quick transitory ridge moves through.

- Moisture increases tomorrow with a few showers and storms possible over the San Juans and southern valleys. Convection chances shift north for the weekend.

- A warmer, drier trend materializes next week with temperatures potentially returning to more summer-like values.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 310 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025

A quick, transitory ridge will move over the CWA today bringing plenty of sunny skies and warm temperatures to the region. Further west, an area of low pressure and southerly flow will continue tapping into moisture to our south. In fact, current satellite imagery is showing plenty of cloud cover for much of California, Arizona and southern portions of New Mexico. This moisture will start moving into our area Friday morning and by the afternoon, daytime heating and the shortwave will allow a few showers and storms to fire over the San Juans and southern valleys. By the evening hours, moisture will have overspread the entire CWA setting the stage for more convection over the weekend. High temps will remain on the warm side today with most areas being near normal tomorrow.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 310 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Moisture looks to make a return on Friday, and by Friday night PWATs will be above normal across the CWA. The biggest question with the upcoming moisture push is the magnitude and of moisture, and the location of the maximum anomaly. Presently the ECMWF Ens has anomalies peaking around 175% of normal early Saturday morning in the southern half of our CWA, moving to the northern half of our CWA by Sunday. The GFS Ens has an earlier moisture push, and peak PWAT anomalies around 150% of normal. Both show drier air moving in on Monday. So, this means a return of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, and decreased chances through the remainder of the long term period. Much of the expected precipitation will be terrain based, but a series of weak waves of energy passing through the region may allow for additional support outside of the higher terrain, and through the overnight hours. High temperatures will remain near normal through the weekend, but a warmup looks possible towards the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 546 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Clear skies will be the rule today though some high clouds will start moving into the Four Corners region later this afternoon into the evening hours. Generally light winds expected as VFR conditions remain in place for the next 24 hours.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.