textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Another day of record warm temperature is expected despite increased cloud cover.

- Light rain and snow is expected to begin as soon as Wednesday morning expanding northward through the day. Precipitation will continue into the weekend with lulls from time to time.

- Snow levels will be around 10,000 ft Thursday, but will drop Friday and Saturday which may bring some snow to some valleys.

- Confidence remains low with regards to snow amounts on Friday and Saturday so keep checking the latest forecast for those details.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 202 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

A large ridge of high pressure continues to build across the central US. Plenty of moisture is forecast to move into the West Coast today and more so tomorrow, but because of the ridge we'll remain dry as moisture gets shunted away from the CWA. Continued southwest flow will keep well above normal temperatures in the forecast today with more records being broken. Cloud cover will increase some from yesterday and may drop highs by a few degrees. Even so, highs will still be abnormally warm.

A long wave trough approaching the West Coast will force the ridge to start moving east Wednesday. A weak wave is progged to move into the Four Corners region bringing some light rain there and light snow to the San Juans. Interestingly, the deterministic GFS and EC hold off any precip until Wednesday night while the HRRR/NAMNEST/HREF are much more gung ho on bringing the precip in Wednesday morning. The NBM is following suit so the current forecast does call for some light precip for the San Juans and southern valleys and SE Utah spreading northward as the day progresses. Not sure about highlights for this first push as snowfall amounts have gone down a bit and also rates are anemic at best...an inch per 6 hours. Snow levels will also start out high thanks to the warm temperatures we've seen lately.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

The main push of moisture from an Atmospheric River arrives late Wednesday/early Thursday bringing rain and snow to the region. Warm temperatures will limit snow production below 9,500 feet with a bulk of the winter travel impacts expected above 10,000 feet. The southwesterly AR feed will favor the San Juan mountains, but all area mountain ranges are anticipated to receive a dose of rain and snow. A lack of synoptic forcing will limit valley rain with much of the precipitation being forced via orographics, with the exception of the Four Corners region and valleys in the foothills of the San Juans. Overall, expect a warm, wet, and cloudy Christmas Day with slippery to hazardous travel over mountain passes.

A lull in the rich moisture is anticipated Thursday night through Friday with lingering light precipitation. Precipitation rates and amounts do not look impactful during this timeframe, however there is a medium chance (30-60%) for re-freeze in the higher valleys Thursday night.

Cooler air moves in this weekend lowering snow levels and increasing snow ratios. Another surge of moisture will promote continued wet weather with increasing chances for light snow in the valleys, especially overnight. It is too early to dive into the details of this system, but folks with weekend travel plans will want to keep a close eye on the forecast as the week progresses.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 930 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at area TAFs over the next 24 hours with passing high clouds creating cigs at times. Surface winds look to remain light into tomorrow with thickening clouds limited mixing in the afternoon. However stronger mountain top winds are expected and mountain wave turbulence and LLWS will be possible at KTEX and possibly KASE.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.