textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Pockets of patchy fog could develop in the lower valleys of eastern UT and western CO early Sunday morning with dense fog across portions of the Animas River Basin including Durango and vicinity.

- Dry and mild conditions return to start the week.

- Another system capable of bringing valley rain and mountain snow arrives on Tuesday, followed closely by another storm system on Friday and Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 453 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

Dense fog has developed over the Animas River Basin as skies cleared behind the departing system due to recent rainfall. Therefore issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Animas River Basin (COZ022) until 10 am MST. Fog should begin to burn off by mid morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 925 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY & MONDAY:

Overnight cooling after the recent precipitation could lead to pockets of patchy fog early Sunday morning in the lower valleys of eastern Utah and western Colorado. Aside from that, the previous shortwave trough has moved eastward, leaving us with generally dry and mild conditions to start the week. The backside of the low will leave some lingering cloud cover in some places, but daytime highs are still expected to run a few degrees above normal.

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY:

Our focus then shifts to another shortwave trough moving through the area from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. While this system will be slightly cooler, the bulk of the precipitation is still expected to fall ahead of the cold front. As a result, snowfall totals should look similar to the previous system, peaking at 4-8" in the southern mountains, with lighter amounts farther north. Snow levels will also be hovering around 7-9 kft. Behind the front, temperatures will drop to near or slightly below normal for much of the week.

LATE WEEK SYSTEM:

Forecast models continue to show another system arriving late this week on Friday and Saturday, though trends are shifting toward an open wave setup. Because the models remain inconsistent, confidence in the exact outcome is still low. This shift has also caused projected precipitation totals to trend downward over recent runs. Most of the moisture is expected to arrive ahead of the cold front, making timing critical. If the precipitation and front line up just right, snow levels could drop to some valley floors Friday night into Saturday morning. For now, however, the specifics remain uncertain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 453 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

Low clouds will hang around through the morning as the departing system moves eastward due to lingering low level moisture with ILS cigs. This has resulted in some stratus and fog development in some areas. Dense fog is expected to continue at KDRO through about 16-17Z before burning off mid morning. Drier conditions return this afternoon and terminals should return to VFR conditions by afternoon with light winds.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for COZ022. UT...None.