textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Smoke will continue to be visible today due to fires burning in Utah.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this afternoon, and will become more widespread by Thursday

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions return on Friday. Fire Weather Watches are in effect on both Friday and Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1010 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

We have allowed Tuesday's Red Flag Warnings to expire. Wind gusts have settled down, although relative humidities still remain very low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

WILDFIRE SMOKE:

Periods of smoky skies are expected today as a result of wildfires burning in Utah. Zonal flow aloft is helping to push that smoke into eastern Utah and western Colorado. The HRRR near surface smoke model is depicting the overnight period into the morning hours to be the worst for the area, with conditions somewhat improving by mid morning. Much of western Colorado is currently under an Air Quality Alert until 9AM Wednesday. Consider limiting outdoor activity when moderate to heavy smoke is present.

MIDWEEK MOISTURE:

Critical fire weather conditions will become more localized today as a plume of moisture begins to enter the region from the southwest. Relative humidities will begin to rise with the onset of this moisture. Gusts were already borderline for most of the area and wildfire smoke in the vicinity may reduce the chance for stronger winds aloft to mix towards the surface. Hence, held off on any fire weather highlights for today.

Elevated moisture begins working its way into the region as early as this afternoon. After the long stretch of dry surface conditions, virga and dry thunderstorms are expected at first, but as more moisture advects into the region wetting rains will become more likely as well as scattered thunderstorms. Through Thursday evening, the highest rainfall totals will favor the higher terrain, with expected amounts between 0.20 and 0.40 inches. Lower elevations will see lesser amounts, ranging from a trace up to 0.15 inches. Either way, any accumulation is appreciated at this point. This moisture will allow increased cloud coverage throughout the area through Thursday evening which will allow daytime highs to hover around normal for the rest of the week. Dry air makes a return Friday, cutting off the moisture supply.

FIRE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND:

A deep closed low will begin dropping from the PacNW Friday, which in turn, will tighten pressure gradient contours aloft and invite gusty surface winds. Gusts of 35-45 mph are expected for Friday and Saturday, with locally higher gusts possible. Fire Weather Watches have been issued for both Friday and Saturday for all of eastern Utah and portions of western Colorado. We look to hold on to critical fire weather conditions through the weekend as the trough begins to track towards the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Stay tuned for any updates to the forecast over the next coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Smoke from Utah wildfires will continue to traverse the region with the area of smoke drifting southward through the overnight hours. Put smoke in the TAF at KGJT, KCNY, KASE, KMTJ, KTEX and KGUC where this smoke is expected to persist. Added TEMPO for vis reduction to 4SM at KGJT and KCNY where visibility reduction is more likely. Visibility looks to improve Wednesday afternoon as mixing occurs with afternoon gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range. Cloud coverage will also begin to increase Wednesday afternoon into the evening as moisture enters the region and some light showers and isolated thunderstorms develop. Added PROB30 groups for this potential mainly after 00Z. Aside from visibility concerns associated with smoke with brief reductions to MVFR (particularly KGJT and KCNY overnight), VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1010 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will become more localized today as a plume of moisture enters the region from the southwest. Dry thunderstorms and erratic virga outflow winds are most likely during the initial onset of showers and storms. As upper level moisture increases during the day, chances of wetting rain will increase as well. Precipitation is expected to continue through Thursday evening. This moisture will temporarily raise relative humidities above critical fire weather thresholds, but dry air makes a return Friday and drops relative humidities at or below critical fire weather thresholds. Gusty surface winds will also make a return Friday, lasting through the weekend. Saturday looks to be the most concerning day, with gusts of 35-50 mph, and locally higher gusts possible. Fire Weather Watches have been issued for both Friday and Saturday. More updates will likely be made to upcoming fire weather highlights, continue to monitor our website as updates are made.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290. UT...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for UTZ486-487-490-491.