textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue through the work week.

- Today looks to be the strongest day for fires with widespread wind gusts up to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph in some areas of southwestern Colorado.

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect tomorrow from noon to 9 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1002 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The weather pattern this week is dominated by troughing through the Intermountain West and ridging over the Mid-West and Eastern States maintaining the very dry southwesterly flow across eastern Utah and Western Colorado. A series of shortwave systems move through the pattern, one each day, that will tend to fill the trough a bit as each ejects to the northeast out of the trough and knocking the ridge down a bit as they climb the western flank. By this weekend, high pressure will have built in across the southern CONUS with the jet retreating to the north along the Canadian Border putting the region under generally a light zonal flow aloft.

Tomorrow looks to have the strongest southwest winds gusting 25-35 mph through the lower valleys and 35-45 mph over the higher terrain Red Flag Warnings are in effect across the region except for the far northeastern corner of Utah from noon to 9 PM. Wednesday will have the lighter winds this week, but with the very dry airmass over the region, some areas in southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado up into central Colorado will meet critical fire weather thresholds, and have issued a Fire Weather Watch for southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado extending up into the upper Colorado River Headwaters. Winds will increase again Thursday and Friday as the timing of the shortwave systems moving through will coincide with afternoon heating. There is still uncertainty on the timing and impacts for later in the week and have thus pushed off issuing further watches or warnings until we to get a better picture of what the winds will do. Models are indicating that the afternoon winds will back off through the weekend into early next week giving us a reprieve from the daily Red Flag Warnings. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast for the rest of this week and the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 521 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Expect VFR conditions across the region through the TAF period. Terrain-driven winds this morning will transition to gusty southwest winds around 18Z. Most terminals will gust 20-30 knots, with some stronger gusts up to 40 knots expected in the Four Corners region. Smoke in the area is becoming less of an issue, but visibility reductions cannot be ruled out from time to time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Red Flag conditions are expected through at least Friday before the stagnant trough driving the dry and windy setup finally appears to break down into more zonal flow with weaker winds into the weekend. For most days, fire weather appears marginal to moderate with single-digit relative humidities and gusts around 25-35 mph. The one exception to this looks to be tomorrow as winds ramp up once more. The strongest winds will be aligned along a corridor from the Four Corners to the northern Colorado mountains, generally impacting areas along the Dallas Divide, Paradox Valley, Uncompahgre Plateau, and Flat Tops. The area of particular concern will be centered around the existing Ferris and McCloud fires where gusts may reach 50 mph in some isolated locations. This could prompt locally enhanced fire weather conditions that may result in periods of especially erratic wildfire behavior. In general though, look for gusts to remain below 45 mph Tuesday, yet still strong and critical to fire behavior.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ200>203-205-207-290>294. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ205-207-290-292-294. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487-490-491. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for UTZ491.