textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue today, favoring the terrain.

- Chances for wetting rains remain low. Gusty outflow winds and dry lightning pose threats for new/existing wildfires.

- Localized critical fire weather conditions emerge Thursday for southeast UT and southwest CO. - Afternoon highs 10-15 degrees above normal are forecast this weekend, with triple digits possible in most desert valley areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

LINGERING MOISTURE:

The area of high pressure centered over the Four Corners will shift west today, cutting off the Western Slope from the little surge of moisture we've been under the last few days. Drier air begins to advect in from the west, although enough moisture is expected to linger in the mid-levels to keep the chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This activity will favor the higher terrain along the Divide, as well as the higher terrain of the eastern Uintas. Surface levels remain dry, limiting the potential for any wetting rain. A few hundredths to maybe a tenth of an inch are possible. The primary threats with any storms will be outflow winds capable of producing 35-45 mph gusts, and frequent lightning. Some of this moisture could linger into Thursday, mainly along the Northern Divide mountains, with similar impacts.

FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL:

Winds are expected to be relatively light through the next seven days, outside of those enhanced by nearby convection. However, an area of elevated winds is expected around the Four Corners, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible. As a result, localized critical fire weather conditions will be possible in this area.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN:

As high pressure builds back into the Southwest this weekend, hotter and drier conditions will return for the Western Slope. Daily humidity minimums will be in the single digits to low teens, and temperatures will jump to 5-15 degrees above normal. Triple digit highs are likely for the lower elevations starting on Saturday and carrying into next week. For Grand Junction, it looks as though we'll get close to the all-time record high of 107 on Sunday, as the current forecast has a high of 106. Luckily, winds will remain on the lighter side, limiting fire weather concerns through the period. Even still, be aware of potential spark sources if out recreating this weekend. Additionally, be mindful if spending time outdoors in heat. Be sure to stay hydrated, wear loose and light-colored clothing, and limit activity during the hottest part of the day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Lingering moisture will allow for widely scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening hours. The main threat will continue to be gusty outflow winds in the 35 to 50 mph range if the storm is near an airfield. Due to the limited coverage confidence is low in timing and placement but did place PROB30 in some of the TAFs. Otherwise winds will be fairly light under prevailing VFR conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1021 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Isolated dry thunderstorm concerns continue today and possibly into Thursday before storm potential almost entirely diminishes. Surface relative humidity values remain low, below 20%, across the lower elevations. Greater surface relative humidity values in the higher terrain, especially across the highest elevations of the San Juan Mountains, should allow for more rain to reach ground. Chances of wetting rains remain low, under 10%, but not zero. A few storms could be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall through the evening which, if they track over an active fire or burn scar, could prompt debris flow concerns. The probability of this remains low, but non-negligible. Dry thunderstorms still remain a concern through the evening hours, bringing about a risk of new lightning ignitions and gusty outflow winds which could impact new and existing wildfires. As hotter and drier conditions settle in Friday and into the weekend, fire conditions could become exacerbated. Lighter winds are expected through the weekend, however pockets of 25-35 mph gusts are possible across southwest Colorado and Southeast Utah. Coverage of these gustier winds will be limited, however, keeping critical fire weather conditions localized.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.