textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry conditions continue through much of the week. An isolated shower or storm is possible over the San Juans and central mountains each afternoon.

- Temperatures will run 5 to 15 degrees above more seasonal norms.

- A stronger storm system may pass through early next week, bringing higher precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1053 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. ISOLATED RAIN OVER THE SAN JUANS:

Models continue to highlight some very isolated convection each afternoon, mainly over the San Juans and central mountains, through the end of the week. Enough moisture will remain under the high pressure to allow daytime heating to kick off this convection. Tuesday and Wednesday, weak disturbances will move through causing an increase in convective coverage. Some of the the showers and storms may be a little stronger but dynamics and lift remain fairly weak so not too concerned. Look for some gusty winds and lightning, typical in this type of environment. As we remain under high pressure, daytime highs will reach anywhere from 5 to near 15 degrees above more seasonal values.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEKEND:

Confidence continues to increase for a pattern change and a return to more widespread precipitation late this weekend. A closed low is still progged to drop down from the PacNW and as this occurs, southwesterly flow will allow moisture to increase across the desert southwest. The end result will be isolated to scattered showers/storms late Sunday night, increasing in coverage as the low reaches the NV border and starts tracking eastward. As of now, the heaviest precip looks to occur Monday evening and overnight. Having said that, any changes to the low track, available moisture, and upper level support could change the going forecast. Suffice to say, clouds and rain will be making a return with the finer details still a bit hazy. Keep an eye on the latest forecast for all the updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 510 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Mostly sunny skies and VFR conditions will remain in place for the next 24 hours. An isolated shower, or quick storm, is possible over the San Juans this afternoon but do not expect any TAF sites to be affected.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.