textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record high temperatures Monday afternoon arrive ahead of a potent cold front.

- Gusty winds are expected Monday through at least Wednesday, but the strongest winds will occur on Tuesday. Gusts around 30-50 mph are expected, with stronger gusts possible in the mountains.

- A winter storm will arrive to the mountains Monday night, with hazardous driving conditions expected into Thursday.

- Another round of mountain snow is possible Friday, with drier conditions expected this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1047 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Southwesterly flow is already sending Pacific moisture northeastward across the Great Basin this evening. The Grand Junction sounding had the whole column in this southwest flow. This will continue to ramp up the warm air advection(WAA) across the region on Monday. Near record high temperatures are forecast. Upper level winds will mix down some strong gusts too. Valleys will gust 20 to 30 mph Monday afternoon, while the mountains can expect 30 to 40 mph, with a few stronger gusts mixed in on favored aspects. Afternoon highs could take a hit from the cloud cover that will be on the increase, thanks to additional moisture. However, WAA will be on the side of warmer temperatures in the strong southerly winds.

Low pressure digging due south down the PACNW coastline Monday afternoon will continue to crank up the gradient across the Southwest Monday night. A 180kt jet max forms from SOCAL up across the Four Corners by Tuesday morning. This will set the table for a winter storm we've not seen this year. Snow showers kick off around midnight as an atmospheric river along the jet max will make quick work of mountain snowfall. Winter highlights are in effect for all mountain groups, with widespread snowfall in excess of a foot expected to drop by Thursday morning. Wind Advisories remain in effect Tuesday for southwest and northwest Colorado, where a lack of accumulating snow kept them out of the winter highlights. Snow will continue through the day Tuesday. Mountain travel is not encouraged, given the gusty winds and blowing snow. The jet max settles southward late Tuesday night and takes some of the forcing out of the equation, along with the moisture plume. Enough moisture sticks around for light orographic snow showers to continue into the night, but rates will be significantly lower. Wind advisories will drop off Tuesday evening, but winter highlights will continue ahead of the frontal passage. Winds remain elevated Tuesday night and travel headaches will continue on mountain roads due to poor visibility and snow packed roads.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1047 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

After a brief lull in rates, snowfall rates ramp back up by late Wednesday morning into the afternoon as the next in a series of low pressure troughs moves inland across the California coast and across the Great Basin. Jet dynamics remain strong with a 150 kt jet streak rounding the base of this trough. Lapse rates steepen by Wednesday afternoon with CAPE becoming elevated so plenty of dynamics and instability to support potential for snow squalls and convective showers in addition to large scale lift and favored orographics. Winds are once again strong with this second shortwave and we could still see wind gusts in the 30 to 50 mph range in our more wind prone valleys near the Four Corners as well as northwest Colorado so additional wind highlights may be needed. Several vort lobes rotate through the base of this shortwave on Wednesday with cooler air in place from Tuesday's cold front so Wednesday looks to be a very active day. Another stronger cold front is on the doorstep though which looks to push through the area sometime Wednesday evening, bringing much colder air with H7 temps lowering deep into the dendritic regime (-10C to -16C) so the snow ratios will transition from a heavy wet snow (12:1) to an efficient fluffy powder (15-18:1 ratios). Precipitation could be a mixed bag in the lower valleys depending on the convective element but snow levels should lower to all valley floors with the passage of this cold front Wednesday evening. Snow continues through Thursday morning before rates begin to taper off as this shortwave trough lifts out of the region, however snow may not quit completely in some areas, particularly across northwest Colorado where cold temperatures combined with steep lapse rates and favored orographics may keep snow ongoing through late Thursday morning. The combination of snow and wind will result in significant travel impacts for the mountains and some higher valleys, but as previous discussions stated, the lower valleys could see wet roads as afternoon temperatures warm before the colder airmass settles in late Wednesday into Thursday. All in all, most mountain areas are expected to see upwards of 1 to 2 feet by Wednesday night, so current winter highlights remain on track. Will have to keep a close eye on some of the higher valley locations whether additional highlights might be needed given the convective element and arrival of colder air late Wednesday.

Thursday afternoon will be another lull in snowfall rates but light orographics will still continue at times, although not expecting additional significant accumulations through the day. We aren't quite out of the woods yet though as another low pressure trough drops down the west coast from the PacNW and swings across the Four Corners region on Friday. This will result in another uptick in snowfall favoring the southern and central mountains and potentially southern valleys as cold air remains in place. This is the third and final shortwave and there is still some uncertainty with regards to the exact track and strength so don't have a great handle on the details yet. Something to watch however. After this final shortwave exits, it does appear like conditions dry out for the weekend with high pressure returning to the region. We could still see some lingering orographic showers though Saturday before the ridging builds in.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 442 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Winds will be the main forecast challenge and threat to aviation operations today and into this evening. Strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching storm system will create ridgetop winds of 40 to 55 kts and possibly higher. This will create area of LLWS and mountain wave turbulence. The gradient will tighten through the afternoon allowing surface winds to become gusty...increasing through the evening and overnight hours with most TAF sites under threat of gusts in the 25 to 40 kt range. As precipitation spreads eastward during the early morning hours CIGS will lower and the threat of ILS to MVFR conditions will increase. The precipitation will also lead to stronger wind gusts reaching the ground. Deteriorating conditions through Tuesday morning is expected at most TAF sites.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ001-002- 020>022. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ003-005-023. Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ004-009-010-012-013-017>019. UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday for UTZ023-028.