textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will fire later this morning and continue through the afternoon hours. A weak disturbance will bring another round of convection later this evening.

- Hot temperatures will continue through week.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected to arrive with a drier weather pattern Friday and beyond.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 153 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A very subtle shortwave is moving across the region currently causing some midlevel broken skies though no sign of any precip. Models initialized well this morning with regards to this cloud cover and by midmorning, partly cloudy skies are expected. Like yesterday, daytime heating and available moisture will allow yet another day of convection. A relatively moist airmass at the surface will get worked on from daytime heating allowing showers and storms to start firing similar to yesterday...around 11AM. The HRRR is a bit more aggressive with increased coverage compared to the NAMNEST but the general gist remains the same. The convection will fire off the terrain as it has over the last few days. Towards the evening hours, a shortwave will move across ID/MT/WY and drag a weak shortwave trough through the CWA. A second round of convection is expected as this trough moves through and will likely keep some showers, maybe a few rumbles of thunder, in the picture through midnight.

Drier air starts moving in Thursday but some convection is still possible. Interestingly, the NAMNEST is showing much more widespread convection while most models are keeping the convection confined to the Continental Divide. The NBM is also liking the Divide so that will hold for now. May need to adjust once the CAM guidance gets into better agreement.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 153 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A noticeable pattern change arrives Thursday night into Friday with high pressure building in overhead. We will go from unseasonably moist, to unseasonably warm and dry. Add a little wind into the equation and fire weather concerns begin to creep back into the forecast. There's a bit more uncertainty for the Friday-Sunday timeframe as winds will be borderline, but Monday looks to be more of a sure shot for widespread fire weather concerns.

With a drier airmass and southwesterly flow in place, this weekend looks to be a cooker with valley temperatures flirting with 100. Be extra cautious about hydration if you have plans to be out and about.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Isolated showers continue at this hour but will not affect TAF sites. Mid and high level clouds will continue to stream across the area but despite that, VFR conditions will prevail. More showers and storms are expected again tomorrow with gusty winds being the main concern.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.