textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme fire weather conditions continue through tonight. Single digit relative humidities and gusts of 45-55 mph are expected and may lead to rapid wildfire spread.

- Strong winds will continue Sunday, favoring the Four Corners with the strongest gusts, while the remainder of the region remains locked into a significant critical fire weather regime.

- Winds diminish some on Monday, but dry and windy conditions will persist through the week, with temperatures returning to above normal by week's end. Wetting rains are not expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 1016 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Winds are dropping off this evening after sunset,and thus expired the wind advisories for southeastern Utah, the Four Corners area, the Upper and Lower Dolores River, and the Paradox Valley. These winds will pick up again in the morning, and thus Wind Advisories are in effect starting at 10 AM.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1016 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Models are in good agreement with a deep low descending through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin setting up a longwave trough over the Western States while ridging builds into the Midwest overnight into Sunday. While the Great Basin low ejects to the northeast into Montana Sunday into Monday, a train of shortwave systems lined up across the Northern Pacific to the Bering Strait continue to track through the longwave trough, anchoring it over the Intermountain West. To the east, the ridge continues to build into the Midwest, expanding to the Eastern Seaboard by early in the work week setting up a blocking ridge that will continue through next weekend. As the shortwave systems move through the longwave trough, the winds will vary between southerly and westerly over eastern Utah and Western Colorado, but after tomorrow, the jet aloft weakens, and with it, afternoon winds will be more reasonable at 20 mph gusting 30 mph. The continued southwesterly flow aloft keeps the region in a very dry airmass through the week. Current guidance has the winds taper off through the first half of the week and pick back up through the last half, but with that being said, expect near critical to critical fire weather conditions across much of the region each afternoon.

Look for one more day of strong gusty winds tomorrow (Sunday) with wind advisories for southeastern Utah, the Four Corners area, the Upper and Lower Dolores River areas, and the Paradox Valley starting at 10 AM with Red Flag Warnings being hoisted at noon for eastern Utah and far Western Colorado. There is a Fire Weather Watch in place for Monday for eastern Utah, far Western Colorado, and the Delta and Gunnison Basin areas. There is still significant uncertainty for specifics of the fire weather conditions beyond Monday, so stay tunes for updates over the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 528 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Elevated southerly to southwesterly winds will continue through the next 24 hours. In sheltered valley locations, such as KASE and KGJT, LLWS will be an issue between 03z and 15z. Wind gusts of 30-40 knots are expected through 03z tonight, and again tomorrow afternoon after 18z. Numerous wildfires across the area putting out large, dense smoke plumes that will impact terminals downwind. Currently, KGJT and KMTJ have reduced visibilities, lowered ceilings, and smoke tempo'ed during the overnight period. Other terminals, include KTEX and KHDN, could also see impacts overnight, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. VFR conditions generally prevail, with the exception of drops to IFR/LIFR in smoke plumes.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Critical fire weather conditions remain firmly locked in place. Numerous new fire starts grew into wildfires Saturday afternoon in eastern UT and western CO. Strong winds beneath a southwesterly jet streak will continue to stoke fires overnight and Sunday. Wind Advisories are in effect again for Sunday around the Four Corners, where winds will gust in excess of 45 mph. This will prove to be another exceptional day of critical fire weather conditions for most of the region. Blocking high pressure downstream will keep the West Slope beneath strong winds into Tuesday. Fire Watches are in place Monday thanks to another gusty, dry day. Afternoon relative humidities show little sign of easing this week. Overnight humidity recovery will provide some relief to fire growth. However, by week's end portions of eastern UT and extreme western CO could see very little humidity recovery. Wetting rains remain unlikely this week, until we can secure some extra-tropical moisture. Models are hinting at a week plume working north by next Friday. This seems like a thin hope at this far out.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ200>203-205- 207-290>295. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for COZ202-203- 207-290-292-294. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292>294. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ020-021. UT...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ486-487-490- 491. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ487-490- 491. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for UTZ487-490-491. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ022.