textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated, terrain-driven showers and thunderstorms continue each afternoon through Saturday.

- A few more days of above normal temperatures before a cool off this weekend.

- A stronger storm system is on track to pass through by early next week, bringing chances for widespread active weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:

There will continue to be pockets of energy floating about Thursday and Friday which will contribute to isolated storm chances along the higher terrain both days. In lower elevation areas, fairly mild days will be on tap, with above normal temperatures expected through the end of the work week, before a pattern shift arrives this weekend.

POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION:

The aformentioned pattern shift leads to a much more complicated forecast with a lot of different variables at play. Firstly, a low pressure system will begin to drop southward along the West Coast, which will begin to steer the tropical moisture from Hurricane Rachel into the Desert Southwest by Saturday afternoon. This will transition the flow aloft to southwesterly, which continues to be favorable for moisture advection. Ensemble guidance is depicting PWATs upwards of 250% of normal for much of the region. This indicates the return of widespread precipitation chances for western Colorado and eastern Utah this weekend, mostly favoring Sunday and Monday. There are uncertainties about how much cloud cover will be present throughout the weekend, leading to questions regarding convective or stratiform storm modes. It is worth waiting for HiRes guidance to help answer that question as we move closer to the weekend.

The low pressure system continues to spin over the Desert Southwest by the start of the work week, but PWATs begin to decrease from previous days. This could indicate a break in widespread precipitation chances, but even that seems questionable at this time. Precipitation chances beyond Monday could also be dictated by Tropical Storm Simon which is currently spinning off the southern coast of Mexico and expected to make landfall as a hurricane. Therefore, beyond Monday, there are many unknowns. If there were to be a second round of moisture as a result of Simon, it would likely take place Tuesday onward, before the low pressure makes its exit eastward over the Divide. At this far out, deterministic models for each wave of moisture should be taken with a grain of salt until we have a better handle on the exact timing, intensity, and location of precipitation chances for the coming week. All that being said, there are still unknown details to this upcoming period, but we remain confident that early next week will see a return of more widespread active weather. Stay tuned!

Last thing to note for you snow lovers; as the temperatures begin to cool as a result of this low pressure system, we could see additional accumulating snow on our highest mountain peaks, especially those in the San Juans.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions will continue this morning at the terminals. A few isolated showers can be found west of the Park Range. These will slowly dissipate, but could produce some gusty winds at KHDN in the next few hours. VFR conditions will prevail most of Thursday. Isolated showers form on the San Juans and Central Mountains again. Left PROB30 verbiage in at KEGE, KASE, and KTEX. Models have struggled with this pattern and confidence is low on exact breadth of coverage, if any, with these showers. Aviators can expect brief ceilings and gusty outflow winds around these showers. VFR conditions will close out this period after sunset Thursday evening.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.