textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers this morning will taper off through the afternoon with only light accumulations expected over the northern and central high mountains. Impacts to travel appear limited.

- Moisture will continue to brush the northern Colorado mountains through the week. The probability of 4+ inches of snow is around 60 percent across the high peaks of the Park Range late Tuesday into Thursday.

- A general warming trend is expected, but the snow covered mountains valleys will see cold inversions set up overnight lasting through the days.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 319 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Water vapor is showing a more defined wave dropping out of the N.Rockies region this morning. This is providing some weak and broad ascent which is enhancing NW orographics over or high northern mountains and webcams show an uptick in the snow over the past hour. As this wave moves through shower intensity will peak around sunrise and spread some light showers toward the central high mountains as well. The dendritic layer looks to wash out behind the wave and most of the shower activity wanes through the afternoon. Overall a quick hitter and just a few inches of new snow over the Park peaks and an inch or so down into the Flat Tops/Gore and Vail Pass area. As will be the theme most of the week...another batch of mositure...driven through by a strong jet aloft...brushes the far northern high peaks tonight into Monday and will keep a threat of flurries/light showers going along with some breezy conditions at times. Amounts will be on the light side and do not see anything other than minor impacts to travel over the passes through the short term period. Snow ratios will be limited as we are moving into a warmer airmass. Highs the next few afternoons look to run some 5 to 15 degrees above normal for early December.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 319 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Models are coming into better agreement with the Eastern Pacific high pressure shifting more to the east thereby pushing the jet and moist plume of the AR remnants farther north into Wyoming and Montana. Guidance is reflecting this trend with the QPF and snow totals dropping to half of what was forecast over the last few runs. Temperatures warm to ten degrees above normal by Tuesday evening as the warmer maritime airmass off the Pacific moves in over eastern Utah and Western Colorado and as the ridge slides east toward the West Coast. The results are that snow levels in the northern mountains rise to 7500 feet Tuesday evening and over 8500 by Wednesday evening. Temperatures warm another five degrees to 15 degrees above normal across the region Wednesday where they stay into the weekend. Record and near record high temperatures are forecast for many locations across the region during this period. As for the storms across the northern Colorado mountains, the taller Park Mountains will see a more significant snow of about a foot over the 48 hour period from Tuesday evening to Thursday evening, not really enough for headlines, while Rabbit Ears Pass will see one to four inches, and the Flat Tops over to Vail Pass will only get light snow showers with little accumulation. Though confidence in these numbers has increased some with the better agreement among the models, it is still quite low because just a slight shift in the pattern can steer much deeper moisture to the south into the northern and central Colorado mountains, so you'll want follow up on this storm system over the next day or two to see how it will play out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1022 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

ILS breakpoints will continue to be met for another hour or two at the central CO mountain terminals, but we are seeing conditions start to improve on satellite. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with light, terrain-driven winds.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.