textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Rivers and other waterways across southwest Colorado and southeast Utah remain elevated due to runoff. A few Flood Warnings remain in effect for those impacted areas.

- A quick-hitting round of valley rain and mountain snow moves through along the I-70 and central mountain corridor Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night/Thursday morning. 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected above 10,000 feet across the central mountain corridor and Elk Mountains where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. Slick travel is expected to develop over mountain passes.

- Warmer and drier conditions highlight the remainder of the seven-day forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

A low pressure system currently over northern California will move across the Great Basin and move across the central portions of our CWA, mainly impacting the central mountain corridor Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night/Thursday morning. This is a quick hitter of a system but looks to pack a punch as some colder air arrives with it as H7 temps drop to -3 to -8C range Wednesday evening. This will bring valley rain and mountain snow with elevations above 10,000 feet favored for 4 to 8 inches across the I-70 and central mountain corridor including the Elk Mountains. Decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for COZ010 above 10,000 feet from 2 pm MST Wednesday through 5 am MST Thursday as roadways and passes above 10,000 feet are expected to become slick and slushy impacting travel for the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commute. Slow down and be prepared for winter driving conditions if you are out as road conditions could change rapidly as this system moves through.

There is some uncertainty though for convective potential which could lead to heavier rain/snow rates, increasing potential impacts. Localized flash flooding is possible if stronger rain showers/storms develop over saturated or flood-prone areas, and hazardous travel conditions could develop over areas that see convective bursts of snow even outside of the current Winter Weather Advisory.

LOOKING AHEAD THURSDAY AND BEYOND:

Beyond Thursday morning, the forecast overall looks to trend much drier. A quick moving shortwave skirts the region across the north on Friday which could bring some increased clouds and isolated showers over the Divide with little impact. A broad ridge of high pressure moves in late this week into the coming weekend, with temperatures warming to above seasonable levels and providing a much needed break from the recent wet weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 426 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Denser cloud cover is beginning to move in ahead of a brief storm system expected to pass through over the course of the next 24 hours. Cigs have already begun to lower at VEL, and all other terminals should expect lowering cigs over the next 12 hours. All Colorado terminals (aside from DRO) will be at risk of seeing cigs reach ILS breakpoints at some point between 18-06Z, though confidence is low on if this will occur at valley terminals. Snow at higher elevation terminals (namely ASE, EGE, and TEX) could periodically reduce vis to MVFR or IFR. This will also mean mountain obscuration will be an additional concern.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1010 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

While drier sensible weather has moved in, flooding concerns remain heightened across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. While many rivers continue to recede and have fallen below minor flood and action stage, low lying areas are still saturated and some rivers and creeks still remain in minor to moderate flood stage. Locations further downstream will see delayed impacts with some just cresting and others yet to crest over the next 24 hours. The Mancos River in particular as well as the San Juan River through the Four Corners and towards Bluff and Mexican Hat still is expected to remain above flood stage through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures. Visit water.noaa.gov for the latest river forecasts in your area.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ010. UT...None.