textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today. Some dry thunderstorms are possible, posing a threat for new fire starts.

- High pressure builds in this week, bringing a return to hot, dry, windy conditions. Critical fire weather conditions look to continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1207 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY:

Moisture that has moved into the region is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thick cloud cover seemed to suppress convection in some areas this morning, resulting in lightning generally only being observed over and near the San Juans. It is this region that is forecast to have the most CAPE this afternoon and greatest PWAT anomalies, so thunderstorm activity may continue to be most active in this area today. Although, models do suggest activity occurring over the Tavaputs and Bookcliffs as well, which may begin soon as this morning's cloud cover clears. Today's 18Z sounding shows a continuation of dry surface conditions, which means many of these showers and storms, especially north of the San Juans, may result in virga and strong wind gusts. However, some traffic cameras are showing precipitation reaching the ground in the southern San Juan Mountains area.

HOT, DRY, AND WINDY THIS WEEK:

Drier air moves in tomorrow, which keeps PoPs limited to the southern San Juans tomorrow afternoon, and then near zero across the CWA until at least late in the workweek. This also means a return of critical fire weather conditions beginning tomorrow. Red Flag Warnings are in effect tomorrow from 1 to 8 PM for Colorado zones 205 below 8,000 feet, and 292. On Tuesday critical fire weather conditions are expected to become more widespread.

In addition to the dry and windy conditions, temperatures are forecast to increase, with Wednesday being the hottest day. Daytime highs are forecast to be 10-15 degrees above normal on Wednesday, which could mean reaching near or above triple digit temperatures in some desert valley areas, including the Grand Valley.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 531 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Isolated to scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact terminals along and south of I-70 through roughly 03z this evening. The main threats with these showers and storms will be lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds. After 03z, skies will begin to clear and winds will weaken and follow typical terrain driven patterns. Westerly winds gusting 15-25 knots will pick up after 18z tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1207 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Today there are isolated showers and thunderstorms across much of the region, supported by moisture that has worked its way into the Four Corners region and southern Colorado mountains. Dry thunderstorms remain a possibility today with this convective activity, but wetting rains could occur in the San Juan Mountains area, where rain reaching the ground has been observed today. This moisture moves out by tomorrow, leading to a return of critical fire weather conditions. Tomorrow Red Flag Warnings are in effect from 1 to 8 PM for CO zones 205 below 8,000 feet and zone 293. Widespread gusts up to 25 to 35 mph are forecast in these areas. On Tuesday an increase in wind gusts across the area will lead to more widespread critical fire weather conditions, and this trend looks to persist through much of the week. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, temperatures are forecast to increase to 10 to 15 degrees above normal on Wednesday, which means there is potential for triple digit highs in some desert valley areas. So, hot, dry, and windy conditions are forecast from tomorrow onwards.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ205-292. UT...None.