textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers with an isolated thunderstorm or two will continue overnight with a couple inches of snow possible at the higher elevations through Friday morning.

- Another round of mountain snow and valley rain is expected Friday afternoon and evening, favoring the central and southern mountains with the best accumulations over the San Juans in the realm of 2 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts above timberline.

- A brief lull occurs over the weekend with dry and warm conditions before the pattern shifts to a more cooler and unsettled one with potential for more mountain snow Tuesday onwards.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1037 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Isolated to scattered showers will continue through the evening into the overnight with a few rumbles of thunder possible as the atmosphere remains unstable enough with steep lapse rates and enough CAPE to support isolated thunderstorm activity. Shower activity will become more isolated by Friday morning as this shortwave exits the region with about another inch or two of snow in the mountains overnight. Another more robust shortwave trough will move across the Four Corners region with the best forcing south of the Four Corners late Friday morning through the day on Friday. Lapse rates will steepen during the afternoon with enough CAPE to support convective showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly over the central and southern mountains. Temperatures remain rather mild so snow levels will remain high with the best snow accumulations above 10kft. Numbers came up a bit from previous runs but still remain within that 2 to 6 inch range on average with locally higher amounts above timberline on the peaks. Probabilities of greater than 6 inches over the San Juans is roughly 30 to 50 percent with higher probabilities above timberline but this is pretty localized. Given the milder temperatures and quick moving nature of this system, roads likely to remain wet as showers will be convective and scattered throughout this event. So, decided to hold off on issuing any winter weather highlights with this Friday system. As this system moves out Friday night, northerly flow behind it could lead to some lingering snow on north-facing slopes.

Drier air will move in on Saturday with ridging building in from the west, resulting in a rather quiet weekend. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Friday across the central and southern areas with increased clouds and showers with highs near to slightly above normal. High temperatures are expected to increase this weekend rising to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1037 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

After a quiet weekend, active weather returns to the forecast next week with a deep trough setting up across the western CONUS. There is good consensus between ensemble families that moisture from an Atmospheric River moving inland in southern California will arrive to the local area Monday afternoon. Upslope flow and favorable jet dynamics look to peak on Tuesday so at this time, Monday night through Tuesday night looks to be the main timeframe for accumulating snowfall and winter driving conditions in the mountains from this push of AR moisture.

Precipitation chances continue into the latter half of the week with a persistent troughy pattern in place (finally!), but the details become much more uncertain. There are major moisture differences between and within ensemble families Tuesday night onwards.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue to complicate things, but generally speaking, snow levels will be lower next week compared to what we saw the last couple of days. They will also lower throughout the week as cool air works in from the northwest, so light valley snow cannot be ruled out as the week progresses.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1037 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Scattered rain/snow showers and isolated thunderstorms will become less numerous as the night progresses. The reprieve will be short lived, with more showers moving in from the southwest by daybreak Friday. These showers will spread northeast through out the day leading to more unsettled weather and low vis/cig at times. ILS breakpoints will continue to be met through the TAF period at the mountain terminals.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.