textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and warming temperatures to start the work week.

- Chances for widespread rainfall increase Wednesday - Friday bringing renewed chances for flooding and flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

BECOMING WARMER AND WETTER THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

With broad southwesterly flow in place, moisture advection will continue to result in increasing cloud cover and isolated showers through Tuesday. Modest warm air advection will also allow for more seasonable temperatures to take hold of the region, despite the increasing cloud cover. Gusty outflow winds cannot be ruled out near collapsing showers, but organized convection is not anticipated.

WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK:

As a strong low pressure system drops southward along the California coast this week, an upper-level jet noses into the Four Corners region bringing remnant moisture from Hurricane Trudy. Rainfall coverage will pick up on Wednesday as a result, with widespread showers likely Wednesday night through Thursday night before coverage lessens on Friday. A large majority of the precipitation from this system will fall as rain with the surface low and thus the colder airmass staying well north and west of the forecast area keeping snow levels at or above 12K feet. It's early and these details will be refined as the week progresses, but warm rain processes and the track of the low have caused the forecast to trend towards mountain rain. We will be monitoring the potential for flooding/flash flooding concerns later in the week as this system moves over snow- covered and/or saturated soils from last week's wet weather.

AVIATION / 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 445 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Mid to high clouds will continue to spread across the area with cigs gradually dropping through the period. Isolated showers are possible this evening although VFR conditions will prevail. They may produce gusty winds. Another round of showers is expected tomorrow afternoon, but confidence was too low to include in the tafs. These showers could result in ILS/MVFR conditions.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.