textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Record-breaking heat is expected to continue for western Colorado and eastern Utah this weekend through early this coming week.

- Daytime highs for the lower elevations are forecast to run between 100F and 106F. Consider limiting time outdoors during the heat of the day.

- Moisture looks to return this coming week, potentially bringing increased cloud cover and daily chances of convection.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1042 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The center of the high pressure looks to lift northward into Wyoming overnight and move northeast into the Dakotas by Sunday which will allow for easterly flow to pull in some moisture across the Four Corners region. Easterly winds are already picking up in the Gunnison Basin with gusts in the 30s late this evening with most hi res and NBM guidance showing an increase in southeasterly winds across the Four Corners overnight. Dew points climb into the 40s across the south, so this supports better chances and coverage of showers and storms for Sunday afternoon. Throughout the coming week, a weak high circulation remains across northern Colorado into Wyoming with the main plume of moisture arcing across SoCal, Nevada and western Utah with southerly flow. However, our CWA will be under an easterly flow due to the position of this high. Moisture will gradually increase throughout the week, and while not substantial, dew points will climb into the 40s and 50s for some locations even stretching northward by mid to late week. Storms initially will be capable of gusty outflow winds and lightning initially as this moisture begins to work through the area, but we could be looking at much better chances of wetting rain and some storms supporting heavier rain rates by mid to late week.

The other thing to note is that with the easterly flow, which is not common, storms will move westerly. This changes where storm development will be favored and the places downwind of that development.

As far as temperatures are concerned, we are still looking at extreme heat with triple digits for lower valleys through at least Monday. Beyond Monday, there is some uncertainty with regards to temperatures due to this potential moisture surge and increasing coverage of showers and storms. Current guidance has triple digits sticking around through much of the coming week but these temperatures could be overdone dependent on cloud cover and shower/storm coverage...so just something to keep in mind. We will however have potential to be close to all time record highs in some areas Sunday and Monday at least under this heat dome.

Here are some all-time record highs...

* Grand Junction: 107F (2023) * Meeker: 99F (2005) * Rifle: 104F (2021) * Craig: 101F (2023) * Vernal: 104F (2021)

Now for Sunday's forecasted highs for those same areas...

* Grand Junction: 104F * Meeker: 99F * Rifle: 101F * Craig: 100F * Vernal: 101F

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 523 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. A few gusts can't be ruled out as we move towards the evening hours, but they shouldn't pose any aviation concerns. Higher sustained speeds are expected during the nocturnal hours for some sites, particularly around the Four Corners area. Clouds will generally clear out for the overnight period, with mid level cloud cover developing again by Sunday afternoon. A chance (20-50%) for showers and storms exists Sunday afternoon mainly for the southern mountains, including KTEX.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT Monday night for COZ001-002-006-007. Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Sunday night for COZ011-020- 021. UT...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT Monday night for UTZ024-027. Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT Sunday night for UTZ022-029.