textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild, dry conditions highlight the forecast through the next week with temperatures five to ten degrees above normal.

- Isolated light terrain-based showers across the San Juans are possible Sunday through Wednesday with the greatest chance for rainfall Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1019 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

High pressure will dominate the weather for eastern Utah and Western Colorado through Tuesday before a general zonal flow aloft dominates the pattern with a stronger pressure gradient to the north and weaker gradient across the region and to the south. The pwats will remain below 0.70 inches through the coming week limiting any showers or thunderstorms that may develop through the mountains to remain light with little accumulation. The GFS indicated an inverted trough moving to the southwest under the high this evening that supported isolated light thunder showers over the San Juans, but the models show the high over the Four Corners strengthening tomorrow into Monday to suppress the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the southern mountains. Though we can't rule out these showers and thunderstorms, we can expect them to be isolated and light. There are still increased chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern Colorado mountains Tuesday afternoon with more isolated storms to the north into the central mountains as a weak upper-level disturbance transits the region northwest to southeast. Through the remainder of the week, isolated light showers and thunderstorms are possible mostly along the Divide with more scattered storms to the south over the San Juans, though confidence is low. There are indications of chance coming next weekend with a deep trough descending down through the Pacific Northwest towards the region bringing cooler weather and chances for more showers. Stay tuned for updates on this system. Otherwise, expect mild dry weather across the region through the coming week with temperatures running five to ten degrees above normal for the first week of October.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 516 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will generally be light and terrain-driven. A few isolated showers may develop over the San Juans after 18Z. Though the likelihood of any storms passing over TEX is too low to include in the TAF, rainfall may occasionally occur within the terminal's vicinity with minimal impacts.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.