textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Quieter weather is expected during the day tomorrow.

- The next round of snow starts late Thursday night and lingers into Friday afternoon. Advisory level snowfall is possible for the southern and central mountains.

- Much colder temperatures are expected through the end of the week, followed by a gradual warming trend through the weekend as high pressure returns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1059 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

The cold front has cleared eastern Utah and most of western Colorado this evening, with colder and drier air filtering in. Skies are gradually clearing from west to east, with light mountain snow showers still lingering closer to the Divide. Most of this activity will come to an end by daybreak tomorrow, though light orographic showers will linger along the northern Divide in the post-frontal northwesterly flow. Additional accumulations will be light, less than 2 inches for most higher elevation areas, though locally higher amounts are possible. With lightening winds and clearing skies, as well as the much colder and drier airmass in place, temperatures tonight will plummet to 5-10 degrees below February norms. Areas prone to cold pooling and that have fresh snow could see lows drop even further. Transient ridging builds in tomorrow, keeping skies mostly clear and winds mostly calm. Highs will be chilly, running 10- 15 degrees below normal. This respite only lasts for around 12 hours, however, as flow aloft shifts to southwesterly and clouds begin to increase ahead of the next Pacific storm.

The southwesterly flow aloft will tap into another weak AR, bringing forecast PWAT values of 100-150% of normal up into areas of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. This is hardly the most impressive moisture we've seen, but there are several factors that will maximize what this moisture can do. For one, the track of this low will take it over the Four Corners, which is a very favorable trajectory for our southern mountains. Southerly to southwesterly winds ahead of the low will maximize orographic lift in these locations. Additionally, increasing PVA and diffluent flow aloft will add some strong dynamic lift. The much colder airmass in place will result in high snow ratios. All together, this means that the southern, and some central, mountain ranges are looking at advisory level snow late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. NBM probabilities are highlighting a greater than 70% chance of snow totals above 6 inches, and a 50-70% chance of totals above 10 inches for elevations above roughly 9000 feet. Winds will be a bit elevated with this system as well, though not nearly to the extent we've seen the last few days. Higher elevations will see gusts of 35-45 mph, with the lower elevations, mainly south of the San Juans, seeing gusts of 25-35 mph. One place where there is still quite a bit of uncertainty is regarding the southwestern Colorado valleys. Forecast totals are sub-advisory at this point, rising to borderline advisory in the foothills of the San Juans. However, this is a very favorable scenario for these locations to over-perform as heavy precipitation cools the column and allows for higher snow totals at lower elevations. So stay tuned, as these areas may join in on highlights.

The low quickly tracks east of the Divide, with a final, though weaker, cold front pushing through Friday afternoon. Increased clouds and showers, plus the reinforcing shot of cold air, will keep daytime highs 10-15 degrees below normal, and bring about overnight lows 15-20 degrees below normal. Northwesterly flow lingers through Friday night, with light orographic showers possible on favored slopes.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1059 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

A lull in winter storm conditions arrives Saturday as surface high pressure arcs across the Rockies. Upper level flow remains northwest, keeping some cold air in place across the region Saturday. This will keep weekend temperatures on the cold side of climatology for a change. The jet stream continues to meander across the middle latitudes of the CONUS over the extended period. High pressure will dominate through Monday with temperatures slowly recovering above climatology by Monday afternoon. Mixed cloud cover will stream through the dirty ridge, likely impacting highs. Models are trying to get behind another weak atmospheric river next Tuesday into Wednesday, as the jet sinks south along the backside of the ridge of high pressure overhead. This is expected to warm temperatures back above normal early next week before any unsettled weather. Models continue to struggle with the placement of this system, now pushing more of the moisture north, versus 24 hours ago. This remains a low confidence forecast, given inconsistencies thus far. For now, it really depends on where the frontal boundary sets up across the region. This will keep temperatures more seasonal to its north and unseasonably warm to the south. We will wait to see how model solutions coalesce in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 426 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

Scattered light snow showers continue this morning before moving off to the east. VFR conditions are expected this afternoon with wind gusts out of the west/southwest between 15-25 knots. Another winter storm approaches from the southwest tonight causing ceilings to lower and reductions in visibility with snow at most terminals.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for COZ003-004-009-010-012-013-017>019. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for COZ005-023. UT...None.