textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue throughout the week with gusts generally in the 25 to 35 mph range. Tuesday however looks to be the strongest day with widespread wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range, possibly up to 45 mph in some areas.

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect from noon to 8PM today, with Fire Weather Watches in effect from noon to 9PM Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 249 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Decided to add Colorado Fire Zone 205 below 8000 feet to the Red Flag Warning in effect for today from noon to 8 pm MDT as critical fire weather conditions are expected for those elevations below 8000 feet with RH below 15% and wind gusts 30 to 40 mph expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1026 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The overall longwave pattern doesn't change much through the coming week, with troughing dominant over the west and ridging to the east. This will keep eastern Utah and western Colorado under persistent, dry, southwesterly flow. In turn, this means gusty southwesterly surface winds each afternoon and low daytime humidities, resulting in daily critical fire weather conditions. Passing shortwaves in the longwave trough will lead to periods of stronger surface winds. The next such day appears to be Tuesday, where widespread gusts of 30-40 mph are expected, and gusts to 45 mph or greater possible, especially across the higher terrain. These conditions have the potential to lead to extreme fire behavior, particularly for the several large, ongoing wildfires. In between the passing shortwaves, winds will relax somewhat, but gusts of 20-30 mph will still be possible each afternoon. Red Flag Warnings have been issued from noon to 9PM Monday for most of the lower elevations of eastern Utah and western Colorado. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Tuesday from noon to 9PM for all Colorado Fire Weather Zones except 291 and 295, and for all Utah Fire Weather Zones except 485.

A small amount of upper level moisture tries to sneak in across northeast Utah with each passing wave, but is most likely to result in virga showers or a dry thunderstorm or two, producing mainly gusty and erratic winds. Temperatures remain near-normal through the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 603 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Light rain or virga showers will continue this morning over northeast Utah into far northwest Colorado, with light rain at KVEL. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will be the rule today with breezy conditions picking up after 15Z with wind gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range across much of the area this afternoon. Smoke from nearby and distant wildfires will result in reduced visibility at times. VFR conditions will prevail except where smoke is more impactful with MVFR. Low confidence in smoke impacts so only included in the morning hours until better mixing occurs at a few TAF sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1026 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Winds are expected to diminish somewhat Monday as the core of strongest winds shifts to the northeast. That said, winds are still expected to be elevated, with gusts of 25-35 mph likely and up to 45 mph possible over the higher terrain. Daytime mixing will turn terrain driven surface winds southwesterly once more. Dry surface air remains in place, keeping critical fire weather conditions in place. As a result, Red Flag Warnings have been issued from noon to 9PM MDT for most of eastern Utah and western Colorado.

A wave is expected to approach the region on Tuesday, tightening up the surface pressure gradient yet again. This will result in widespread southwesterly gusts of 30-40 mph. With daytime minimum humidity values in the low teens to single digits, we are once again looking at widespread critical fire weather conditions. The core of strongest winds is currently forecasted for area that already have ongoing large wildfires, including the Babylon, Ferris, Gold Mountain, and Snyder Fires. As a result, elevated to extreme fire behavior will be possible on these fires Tuesday. Fire Weather Watches are in effect from noon to 9PM.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202-203-205-207-290-292>294. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ200>203-205-207-290-292>294. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490-491. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for UTZ486-487-490-491.