textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected for the entire region through the weekend.

- Extreme fire weather conditions expected today. Single digit relative humidities and gusts of 45-55 mph are expected and may lead to rapid wildfire spread.

- Critical fire weather conditions will continue into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1248 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Expanded the Wind Advisories for today to include the rest of the lower valley zones where gusts look to at least reach 45 mph with locally higher gusts still possible based on latest guidance. This Wind Advisory now includes all eastern Utah valleys and all western Colorado valleys except Gunnison Basin and San Juan River Basin. Gusts will be in the 45 to 50 mph range with locally higher gusts possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1017 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

DRY AND WINDY WEEKEND:

This weekend's current synoptic level set up is characterized by a low pressure system dipping south from the PacNW with ridging to our east. This low pressure system will tighten pressure gradient contours aloft upon its arrival. With that being said, gusty winds are anticipated each afternoon through the weekend and into next week. This, in turn, means critical fire weather conditions will be around all weekend into next week. Rainfall over the past couple of days will dampen fire weather threats for some of the higher elevations, but the threat remains for the lower elevations where dry surface conditions remain. Especially around the Four Corners and within the Grand Valley/Utah Grand Flat. Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected for those lower elevations today. Afternoon gusts are forecast to fall within the 45-55 mph range each day, with locally higher gusts possible. Relative humidities will likely be hovering around the single digits for most of the weekend as well. Several lightning strikes across the area over the past few days could be enough to prompt new fire starts. This is due to a phenomenon known as holdover lightning. When lightning strikes the ground, its heat can ignite organic matter deep beneath the surface. Because these deep layers under the Earth's surface lack abundant oxygen, the fire doesn't immediately flame, instead it smolders undetected for days or even weeks. It is only when local weather conditions shift, such as what we expect this weekend, that the smoldering combustion could erupt into an active, visible wildfire. Multiple fire weather highlights have been issued to account for this fire danger through the weekend. See the Fire Weather section for more information on that. Practice wildfire prevention by avoiding any outdoor activities that involve flames or sparks, ensuring vehicle chains do not drag on the ground, and obeying all local burn bans and regulations. As a result of this approaching system, daytime highs will hover around normal, if not below at some times.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 543 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

FEW to SCT mid level clouds will persist this morning mainly over the high terrain as strong winds aloft work over the area and begin to mix down to the surface after 16Z. LLWS will be common mainly during the morning before deeper mixing commences. Gusty winds will occur at times this morning due to downsloping winds with stronger winds this afternoon into the evening with peak gusts in the 35 to 45 kt range with locally higher gusts possible. Gusty winds should continue through the evening with decreasing winds after 06Z, although breezy overnight conditions are still possible at times due to the presence of the jet overhead through Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1017 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Powerful winds and single digit relative humidities return to the region for the weekend, setting the stage for an extreme fire weather setup. Additionally, the past few days have seen lightning strikes that could pose a threat to new fire starts. For higher elevation areas in the San Juans, central Colorado mountains, and Roan Cliffs, recent wetting rains will somewhat hinder fire development and spread. However, the concern lies mostly in the lower elevations around the Four Corners and within the Grand Valley/Utah Grand Flat. Additional lightning strikes were observed today over the Uncompahgre Plateau and Book Cliffs, which could be another area of concern this weekend. Any fires that develop over the next 48 hours will have the potential to spread rapidly due to the overall favorable atmospheric and fuel conditions in place. Due to this, Red Flag Warnings are in effect each day this weekend. Exercise extreme caution this weekend and practice wildfire prevention.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight for COZ200>203-205-207-290>295. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for COZ202-203- 207-290-292-294. Wind Advisory from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-006-007-011-022. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ002-008-020-021. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ487-490- 491. Wind Advisory from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ024-029. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027. Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ486-487-490- 491.