textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures persist through the period.

- Valley rain and mountain snow return today and tomorrow, with potentially difficult holiday travel expected over the mountain passes, with highest amounts over the Park Range.

- After a dry weekend, unsettled weather could return by early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 314 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

High and midlevel clouds have overspread the area tonight, with some returns now showing up on the radar across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. None of this moisture is making it to the ground at this point, as the surface airmass remains quite dry. The next several hours will be spent saturating the atmosphere, with precipitation expected to break out across the region by daybreak.

Temperatures are expected to remain mild with this system as warm air advects in along with the moisture. Temperatures have actually risen a few degrees over the last few hours. This will keep valleys seeing rain, and limit snowfall to elevations above 8-9k feet. That said, a few colder valleys that have managed to set up an inversion could see some brief light freezing rain or sleet at the onset of precipitation, before changing over to a rain/snow mix. Orographics will be the driving force for precipitation today, with some better dynamic support moving in beginning this afternoon. A weak upper level jet streak tracks through, bringing a burst of higher precipitation rates before things lighten up this evening. Then, early tomorrow morning, an open trough is forecast to track across the region, bringing one more period of heavier precipitation along with a shift to northwesterly flow aloft. The Park and Elkhead ranges will make out the best with this system, with 5-12 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts above treeline, expected by Friday night. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for these areas from 11 AM today through 5 PM tomorrow. Additionally, snow totals have come up across the remaining central and southern ranges, with 4-10 inches of snow expected above 8500 feet. Elevation based Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for these ranges as well. Be prepared for winter driving conditions over the mountain passes today and tomorrow if travelling. Showers quickly taper off Friday evening as a ridge of high pressure starts to build in.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 314 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

A ridge of high pressure builds back over the Western Slope on Saturday, with its axis shifting east of the Divide by nightfall. Warmer and drier conditions filter back in, resulting in high temperatures climbing 10 to 15 degrees above normal. However, anomalous moisture will still be transported through southwesterly winds on Sunday, which maintain a low chance for light mountain snow throughout the day. Elsewhere, passing mid to high clouds are more probable.

A low pressure system off the PacNW will continue to pull Pacific moisture inland Sunday night into Monday, with potential for AR remnants reaching our CWA by Monday night. Right now, QPF favors the northern mountain ranges, with minimal moisture reaching valley floors through Tuesday. Uncertainty then arises with respect to the low pressure system's trajectory, if and when the system progresses inland. As a result, confidence in precipitation beyond Tuesday dramatically decreases.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 951 PM MST Wed Dec 31 2025

Expect VFR conditions with increasing mid level clouds moving in from the Southwest through 09Z. Thereafter snow showers begin at KTEX and KDRO spreading to the northeast reaching KASE and KHDN by 18Z with conditions deteriorating to MVFR and IFR within a few hours of onset, below ILS breakpoints. Warm air moving in will lift snow levels above 8,000 ft after 18Z with rain in the lower valleys and rain-snow mix at the mountain sites through the day. Improvement is not likely to come until later in the day on Friday.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST Friday for COZ004-009-010-012-013-017>019. UT...None.