textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- A warm and wet weather pattern sets up tomorrow evening, remains in place through the work week.

- The potential for impactful mountain snowfall is highest Wednesday and Wednesday night, but warm temperatures will keep snow levels above 9,000 feet (if not higher).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 239 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

A narrow band of moisture has set up across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon, but surface dew point depressions of ~30 will take some time to overcome. Isolated rain/snow showers remain in the forecast over the northern mountains, but it will likely be another 24 hours before any meaningful precipitation arrives.

Tomorrow evening, PWAT values across the region surge to 175-200% of normal as southwesterly flow kicks in. This is a marked increase compared to anything else we've seen in recent weeks. Unfortunately, this surge of moisture will be accompanied by unseasonably warm temperatures limiting snowfall chances to elevations generally higher than 9,000 feet (even higher during the heat of the day). This moisture will prime the atmosphere for a more active second half of the week with increasing chances of valley rain and a mountain rain/snow mix Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 239 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

The prolonged dry stretch finally comes to an end as flow around a closed low off the California coast advects in much deeper moisture into the CWA. Models are in good agreement that this low will slowly inch eastward Tuesday through Thursday before weakening and becoming an upper level trough. The good news with this scenario is that upper level support in the form of a 125+ kt jet streak will remain overhead during roughly the same timeframe. Divergence aloft associated with this jet streak will provide plenty of upper level support while a weak AR (the moisture mentioned above) brings PWATs to over 200 to 250% of normal. A shortwave ahead of the upper level trough will bring some valley rain/mountain snows starting Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Snow won't completely end but rates will diminish late Wednesday night into Thursday before the next wave moves through. Another round of snow is expected to move in just before daybreak Thursday and continue through Friday morning. Unfortunately, the southwesterly flow remains in the forecast for both of these waves which will keep high temperatures well above normal and thus, nailing down when and where rain will change over to snow will be that much more difficult. In fact, this southwesterly flow remains across the CWA through Friday when a cold front finally brings cooler temperatures to the region. That being said, increased cloud cover, evaporative cooling, lack of sun will all play a part in the snowfall so a lot of moving parts with this prolonged system. For now, most valleys will see rain with a rain/snow mix expected for the northern valleys. Snow levels will set up between 8 to 9k feet Wednesday and drop as we go forward in time.

By Friday, most precip will have ended as a weak, shallow front pushes through from north to south. Another area of low pressure will move across Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend but, as of now, most precip will stay to our south though the San Juans may get clipped with some light precip. A weak ridge will build overhead but still expect plenty of high clouds to filter in. Flow then switches to southwesterly and keeps temps above normal. In fact, through the entire long term period, despite the precip and clouds, high temps are expected to run several degrees above normal. More good news, however, as we look past the long term period. A few more systems may be poised to bring more rounds of precip. Of course, this far out, confidence is very low. Certainly something to keep an eye on though.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 922 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

Rain and snow showers may move through KHDN at times today causing perhaps MVFR conditions. The front responsible for these showers will get as far south as I-70 and allow a slim chance for showers at those sites. Cigs could get to ILS breakpoints at KEGE and KASE if any showers materialize in the vicinity.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.