textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Valley rain and mountain snow will being this morning down south and expand northward through the day. Rain and snow will continue into the weekend with lulls from time to time.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for the eastern Uintas as gusty winds and snowfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches are expected.

- Snow levels will setup around 10K feet today and drop to between 9K to 10K feet Thursday. Snow levels drop Friday and Saturday as the next system moves through.

- The next system will move through Friday onwards bringing another round of more widespread precipitation. Low confidence remains in the forecast however with regards to snowfall so keep an eye on the latest forecasts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 217 AM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Mostly cloudy skies are expected today as moisture really starts to increase thanks to the Atmospheric Rivers affecting the West Coast. This morning PWATs will reach around 200% of normal and by this evening this number will have risen to between 250 to 300% of normal. Precip chances will remain rather low today, favoring the San Juans and then the higher terrain as we move towards the night time hours. The southwesterly flow will continue to keep warm temperatures in place so any precip in valleys will be rain while the higher elevations above 10K feet will see some light snow. The exception remains the eastern Uintas which will see 6 to 10 inches of snow with some stronger gusts, thus the Advisory remains in place for that area.

Overnight, southwesterly flow continues and will bring some light snow to the higher elevations of the CWA. Snowfall amounts remain tepid at best. Maybe an inch or so per 6 hours and with high snow levels and warm surface temperatures, impacts from this disturbance do not appear to be all that great.

Christmas Day, valley rain and mountain snows continue but the disturbance bringing the moisture will be weakening as it moves through with some orographic flow really being the biggest contributor to lift. Look for a rain/snow mix between 9 to 10K feet and all snow above 10K feet. The heaviest snow will fall in the afternoon but these rates remain in the 1 to 2 inches per 6 hours range. Still not enough to warrant any advisories. Even so, if travelling over mountain passes on Christmas Day, be aware that wet roads will be the rule, with maybe some snow/slushy roads at the highest points.

Abnormally warm temperatures continue thanks to the continued southwesterly flow even with all the cloud cover and precipitation.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 148 PM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

A bit of a lull in precipitation rates is expected Thursday night into Friday as we will be in between systems but light mountain snowfall and valley rain looks to still continue periodically with little in the way of accumulation. The next push of moisture comes Friday evening with better dynamic forcing Friday night into Saturday as a deep trough moves through the Great Basin and across our area. We will see strong jet dynamics as a 150 kt jet streak moves across southeast Utah into northwest Colorado. We are going to see more influence from the northern trough moving across the northern Rockies, while the southern piece of the trough tries to split on Saturday and form a cut off low over SoCal by Sunday. Even though temperatures stay relatively mild during the afternoon, some cooler air will advect in across the north Saturday with H7 temps dropping to -4C and to around -8C by Sunday morning. Snow levels are forecast to drop to around 5kft up north and between 6kft and 7kft along and south of I-70. With better dynamics and forcing, we have been noticing an increase in snowfall accumulations for the northern and central mountains with a decrease across the southern mountains. Snowfall at this time looks limited in the valleys with the lower valleys seeing rain or a rain/snow mix, probably due to some uncertainty with temperatures and snow levels. Post-holiday travel is likely to be impacted with the expected snow potential this weekend so stay up to date with the latest forecast as we iron out some of these details in the next couple days. There is still a bit of uncertainty with regards to how this trough evolves which would impact what locations are more favored as well as snowfall ratios and amounts in the mountains.

Models have been more consistent with timing so it appears like snow should come to an end or at least rates drop off to light by late Sunday morning into the afternoon with drier air moving in behind the trough. We will see cooler temperatures into early next week compared to our current highs...dropping to 5 to 10 degrees above normal versus 20 to 25 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 419 AM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Midlevel ceilings continue across the area at this hour and the HREF suggests these will persist for much of the day as lower ceilings move into the Four Corners region. Clouds will increase and thicken through the day with some TAF sites possibly seeing ILS breakpoints being met from time to time. Some LLWS will also be possible at KASE, KEGE, and KTEX as stronger winds aloft mix down. Later today, showers will become more common and may bring TAF sites down to brief MVFR conditions due to low vis in showers. Unsettled weather continues through the next few days.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon MST Thursday for UTZ023.