textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds are expected to continue through this evening with gusts around 30-50 mph and upwards of 70 mph in the mountains.

- Another round of moderate to heavy snow is expected today through the evening. A few thunderstorms capable of strong winds are possible this afternoon as well.

- A final round of snow is expected Thursday night and Friday, with drier conditions this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

A shortwave trough is approaching the area from the west today. Strong southwesterly winds ahead of the trough will result in gusty winds for many locations. Gusts of 30-50 mph will be common with 50- 70 mph in the mountains through early evening. There may be enough instability to support a few lightning strikes and more organized convection, which would certainly increase the potential for 50 mph gusts. This does introduce a slight potential for snow squalls during the evening commute where temperatures are at or just above freezing. For most locations precipitation type will be all snow, with rain to a rain snow mix limited to lower valleys. A cold front pushes through the area this afternoon. After the cold front pushes through the desert valley floors will see a transition to all snow, but a majority of the precipitation will be done. Light showers will linger through the night before finally tapering off Thursday morning.

Additional snowfall is expected to be around 4-12 inches generally above 8 kft. Below that elevation, totals will be under 4 inches with not much below 6 kft. There could be difficult travel over the passes during Thursday morning's commute, especially with some still breezy winds aloft. Winds gradually decrease overnight, but the mountains stay gusty into tomorrow. A ridge builds in by midday Thursday, with light orographic showers lingering over the higher terrain. Minor accumulations under 2 inches will be possible at the higher elevations of the northern ranges.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

A modest shortwave trough digs into the Four Corners Friday morning. It picks up another shot of Pacific moisture, likely some leftover from the previous storm cycle. The peak rates will be Friday morning and temperatures will be cold enough for snow at all locations. The central and southern mountains will be favored with amounts in general around 6-12 inches and lesser amounts north of I-70. The southern valleys and foothills could end up with with around 3-6 inches. The snow gets going Thursday evening and continues through about Friday afternoon and or evening. The generous cold air in place and higher liquid snow ratios will jack up accumulations a bit too.

Quiet weather is expected for the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1032 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Snow showers are occurring across most of the region this morning, dropping cigs below ILS breakpoints for most terminals. Low cigs and reduced vis from snow will also threaten to drop terminals to MVFR or IFR conditions. KASE, KTEX, and KDRO all have a higher probability of reaching LIFR conditions through the afternoon as well. Winds are expected to gust from 25-40 knots through midnight before light to moderate winds take over tomorrow morning.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ001-002- 006>008-011-014-020>022. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ003-004- 009-010-012-013-017>019. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ005-023. UT...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ022-024-027- 029. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for UTZ023-025- 028.