textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and warmer conditions return for the weekend with isolated storm chances along the higher terrain each afternoon.

- A pattern shift early next week will lead to precipitation chances as early as Monday starting in the southern parts of our CWA.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 948 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

THIS WEEKEND:

A ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the Intermountain West this weekend, leading to mostly dry conditions for the lower elevations. However, afternoon diurnal heating combined with orographic lift will be enough to support isolated convection each day along the higher terrain. Temperatures will climb to about 5-10 degrees above normal during this time period.

PATTERN SHIFT INCOMING NEXT WEEK:

Looking ahead, we are currently tracking a pattern shift for early next week that could increase our chances for precipitation. An active and complex split-flow pattern seems to characterize the Western CONUS with a closed low drifting off the SoCal coast and a parent trough situated off the PacNW waters. Both of these will work in combination to switch the flow to southwesterly by Monday, leading to some moisture advection into the Four Corners region. This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. The closed low is then forecast to open up and become absorbed into the primary steering flow and stall over the Great Basin, allowing precipitation chances to continue into Tuesday. The ECMWF ensemble consensus highlights PWAT anomalies surging to 190- 220% of normal across most of the region for this time period. It's important to note that notable model variance exists regarding the track and amplitude of the parent low. This variance introduces uncertainty regarding the precise coverage, timing, and duration of precipitation chances Tuesday and beyond.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 538 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

High pressure builds back in across the region today. A few clouds will form on the terrain, with occasional mid to upper level ceilings this afternoon. A stray shower could form on the mountains, but left out any mention of that in TAFs as there is just too much uncertainty in locations. Winds will gust 15-20 mph across the region this afternoon then subside near dark. Skies will clear and night time drainage winds in the valleys will return to close out this TAF period.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.