textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mountain snow above 8 kft and valley rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday. Snowfall totals of 6-12 inches are possible in the northern and central mountains with lower amounts across the south.

- Impacts from the snow may only occur on mountain passes during the night time and early morning hours due to warm temperatures. - Another round is possible on Friday mainly across the south, with a brief lull this weekend and additional precipitation possible early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 932 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Today a low pressure makes landfall along the West Coast. Although the associated moisture well ahead arrives in our area this morning. This will along with orographics and jet support will result in scattered to widespread showers for the next few days. This system is not arctic in nature therefore snow levels look to stay relatively high, generally above 8-9 kft. Showers will persist tonight as moisture continues to stream into the area under the southwest flow. The central and northern mountains are still on track to get 6-12 inches with the Park range getting upwards of 18 inches by Friday morning. The only impacts might be limited to the passes during the night time hours due to the warm temperatures in the day. Lapse rates steepen on Thursday as a piece of energy approaches from the main low, so there could be some lightning and banding. If any bands setup, heavier snowfall rates may occur. Overall there should be a down tick in precipitation Thursday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 932 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Low pressure treks eastwards through the Desert Southwest beginning Friday morning and through Saturday. The low's center is expected to pass to our south as a result, placing us in drier flow. Southern portions of the CWA, at least early in the long-term period, could still benefit from some slightly moister southwesterly flow. So, while areas along and north of I-70 will have mostly dried out and seen precipitation come to an end on Friday, portions of southwestern Colorado should continue to see some light, terrain- driven showers through Friday night and potentially into Saturday morning. Snowfall appears to favor the southern slopes of the San Juans as a result. The region's warmer temperatures will unfortunately keep any snowfall relatively wet (snow-water ratios around 12:1) and snow levels above valleys.

A low-amplitude ridge returns on Sunday ahead of another deep trough setting up off the west coast. Timing on the movement of this low pressure system over top of us is still uncertain, though it likely won't be until mid-next week. Current forecasts are indicating that we should drop to near-normal temperatures as it passes though, which would help support fluffier snow for our mountains. It's promising, yet still well off in the future, so stay tuned for more information over the next several days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 426 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Deep moisture has moved in across the region with broken to overcast mid-level clouds. Look for scattered mountain snow and lower valley rain showers increasing across the region between 12Z and 18Z, becoming predominate through 00Z and scattering out somewhat thereafter. KASE, KEGE and KRIL will see conditions below ILS breakpoints through most of the TAF period while the other TAF sites will have periods below their ILS breakpoints.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Storm Warning until noon MST Thursday for COZ004. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Thursday for COZ009-010- 012-013. UT...None.