textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding along the San Juan river is ongoing across portions of southeast Utah, and is expected to continue through late Monday.

- Scattered showers and storms will be capable of producing moderate rainfall that could result in additional local flooding through Sunday evening.

- Mountain passes could see minor snowfall amounts on roadways by Monday morning.

- Monday through Thursday is expected to be mostly dry, but another impactful system is possible next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Drier air tries to push in from the southwest during today as the low finally starts to lift northeast. We are still expecting showers and storms during the afternoon and evening. These storms will be capable of producing brief moderate rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds. Colder air in the wake of the front and lingering moisture will allow for light mountain rain and snow showers to linger Sunday night into Monday. Again, little snow accumulation is expected, but passes could once again be slippery Monday morning, especially along the Central and Northern Divide.

This low finally moves east of the Divide by Monday morning, with much drier conditions expected through the day Monday. A quick moving clipper will just brush our northern border Monday night into Tuesday, with the potential for some light rain and snow showers over the higher terrain of the eastern Uintas and Northern Colorado Divide. Behind this clipper, zonal flow takes control, bringing mostly quiet conditions and gradually warming temperatures through the back half of the work week. Highs start out 5-10 degrees below normal Sunday through Tuesday, climbing to near-normal by the Wednesday-Thursday time period. By Friday, flow aloft shifts to a moister southwesterly direction in response to a low deepening off the West Coast, bringing increased cloud cover and a slight cooldown. Model agreement is poor beyond this point, but there are indications that we could see a return to cooler and unsettled conditions by next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to impact terminals across eastern Utah and western Colorado this evening. The threat of thunderstorms is expected to taper off over the next hour, with only showers and low clouds lingering. KASE/KEGE/KRIL will continue to see ceilings close to ILS breakpoints through 12z tomorrow morning, before skies clear. To the west and south, skies will clear sooner, which could lead to the development of fog and low stratus. KDRO, KGUC, and KTEX in particular are likely to see fog and low stratus. VFR conditions will prevail for most locations, with occasional drops to MVFR/IFR in passing showers or under fog. Winds will be light and terrain driven.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1043 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Most rivers have receded below flooding stage although major flooding is ongoing along the San Juan river in southeast Utah, which continues into late Monday. Scattered and showers this afternoon and evening could produce enough rainfall to result in localized flooding of small creeks and streams. The main rivers should not see much of a response to these showers today, and if they do they will be minor rises. Conditions are dry Monday through Thursday. There is the potential for another impactful system late week and next weekend.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ018-019-021>023. UT...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ022.