textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/snow showers and thunderstorms will persist in the forecast through Wednesday.

- Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the areas along the Continental Divide Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

- High pressure will return temperatures back above normal late week.

- Another disturbance could bring additional showers to the northern mountains this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Winter Returns to the Region

A frontal boundary draped across the Southwest continues to lift moisture into the CWA this afternoon. A spirited jet streak ahead of a pinched off low coming ashore is sending additional moisture across the region, along with some gusty winds mixing down to the surface. This morning's Grand Junction sounding is also painting a favorable environment for additional thunderstorm and shower development this afternoon. We've seen some lightning strikes favoring the sunny spots north of that cloud shield that lies over southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. Good wind shear and 700 joules of CAPE are ready to lend a hand.

The pinched off low will merge with the northern stream flow tonight across the Central and Northern mountains to produce some light snowfall for the high country and light rain down below. This will all hang north of I-70 tonight, before spreading south Tuesday. The main frontal boundary drags through Tuesday, which will give things a hand Tuesday afternoon, with rain, snow and thunderstorms on the docket. An uptick in moisture has increased snow potential Tuesday night across the mountains. While snow levels will hover around 8500 feet and up, cooler overnight conditions behind the front will lead to some slick roads across the mountains. Went ahead and issued Winter Weather Advisories for much of our Divide from Highway 50 northward, as snow totals around 8 to 10 inches are turning up on the passes and higher.

Late Week and Next Weekend

Advisory-level snow will taper off Wednesday morning up north, and work south by evening. High pressure builds back across the West and dries us out further Thursday. After a couple of cool, cloudy afternoons on Tuesday and Wednesday, Temperatures surge back above normal Thursday and into the weekend. Models drop another disturbance into the region from the PACNW on Saturday. This could return some showers back to the forecast everywhere northeast of the Four Corners. However, it does look like temperatures will trend upward, despite some cloud cover next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Daytime heating will work on available moisture allowing some showers/storms to fire this afternoon and evening mainly along the I- 70 corridor northward. Many PROB30 groups are included in TAFs to account for this possibility. Some gusty afternoon winds of 20 to 25 kts are also expected. While VFR should remain the primary flight category, brief MVFR will remain possible near the heavier showers/storms. Conditions will improve for many sites after 06z.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to noon MDT Wednesday for COZ004-010. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ012. UT...None.