textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue to spread across the region through Thursday evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible along the Divide on Friday.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions return on Friday. Red Flag Warnings are in place for eastern Utah and western Colorado.

- Critical fire weather conditions amplify Saturday and Sunday due to strong 40-50+ mph surface winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 927 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

MOISTURE!:

The ongoing surge of moisture continues to spread northward through Thursday evening. This will lead to an uptick in coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The higher relative humidities will suppress critical fire weather, but isolated dry lighting cannot be ruled out. Smoke will continue to slosh around the region, particularly on Thursday when a westerly wind shift will puts much of eastern Utah and western Colorado downwind of the Cottonwood Fire.

WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN:

Low pressure digs into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. This will quickly collapse the ridge overhead and drive up surface winds in the southwesterly flow ahead of the low. Relative humidities bottom back out Friday afternoon for eastern UT and western CO. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for both sides of the state line Friday. The pressure gradients tighten considerably Friday afternoon and overnight. The gusty winds and poor relative humidity recovery will keep Red Flag conditions in place for eastern UT Friday night and beyond.

Winds continue to strengthen on Saturday across the region with widespread gusts of 40-50 mph. Fire Weather Watches are in place for the entirety of Western Colorado. Rather than eject out of the Rockies, this low will begin to slowly fill late Sunday. This will keep stronger winds aloft parked overhead. It looks like critical fire weather conditions will continue in some capacity Sunday and beyond behind this system.

Temperatures will adjust down early next week with some cooler air working in. This remains a low confidence forecast, considering the impacts of wildfire smoke on afternoon highs and mixing. Surface wind speeds could be overestimated should weekend fire activity ramp up the smoke again. Likewise, temperatures could be over forecasted should skies remain smoke filled.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Gusty winds 20 to 35 kts will still be possible through about 10Z as a line of showers moves through the central and northern portions of the area with some reprieve behind this line. Smoke from Utah wildfires will continue to impact many sites by reducing visibility, especially on approach and departure, but the shower activity should help to clean the air. Gusty southwesterly winds will settle down to nominal drainage winds after 10Z, and will pick back up after 18Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also redevelop Thursday afternoon and continue through early Thursday evening, so included PROB30 groups at all TAF sites for this potential. Expect periods of conditions below ILS breakpoints for visibility due to smoke and for ceilings in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions return on Friday afternoon as gusty winds and low relative humidities return to eastern UT and western CO, leading to Red Flag Warnings along the state line. Relative humidities recover very little Friday night and thus Red Flags will remain in place through Saturday night for eastern UT. The state line zones on the CO side will see their Red Flag Warnings expire Friday night due to the better recovery of relative humidities. However, Fire Watches have been issued for Saturday across the entire West Slope of Colorado. These will likely be upgraded to Red Flag Warnings in subsequent forecast packages. Wind speeds on Saturday remain concerning due to gusts in excess of 50 mph. Relative humidities near 10 percent in the gusty environment are expected to lead to extreme fire behavior. These conditions following an outbreak of lightning will remain a forecast concern through the weekend, as winds are expected to remain elevated into at least Sunday.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ200-202- 203-207-290. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ200>203-205-207-290>295. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to midnight MDT Saturday night for UTZ486-487-490-491.