textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and warm temperatures continue through Friday. Look for a few higher gusts each afternoon.

- High temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above more usual seasonal values.

- The next chance for precipitation will be this weekend as moisture starts to stream up from the south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

As high pressure builds in across the Southwest, flow aloft remains mostly zonal, keeping conditions mostly dry and sunny. Temperatures will run 5-10 degrees above normal through the end of the work week. Deep daytime mixing will tap into stronger upper level winds, mixing down afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph. With dry air in place, and daytime minimum humidities below 15%, this will result in some localized critical fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday.

Models continue to indicate a moisture push for the weekend, although discrepancies are cropping up in timing and intensity. A low is expected to swing into the Pacific Northwest Saturday, tracking across the Northern Rockies through the weekend. This will help to shift flow back to southwesterly over eastern Utah and western Colorado. Ensemble guidance is indicating PWAT values of around 150% of normal over the weekend, although this is one discrepancy that is cropping up. The ECENS has a later and somewhat weaker moisture push compared to the GEFS. In addition, there is the question of forcing. All this moisture is no good if there's nothing to force showers and storms to form. At this point, aside from favorable southwesterly orographics, there is potentially a weak frontal boundary to work with. However, this boundary looks to weaken and become diffuse by time it reaches eastern Utah and western Colorado, which will limit its potential impact. If the front does hold together, we could see shower and storm activity return. Either way, clouds and cooler temperatures are looking more and more likely for the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 512 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Afternoon wind gusts up to 20-25 knots highlight the forecast with mostly clear skies.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.