textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds and warm temperatures will occur each through the week. Northern valleys may see some gusts reach 40 mph at times.

- Anomalously warm temperatures close to 20 degrees above normal move in by the end of the week, with many locations seeing near- record breaking warmth.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 951 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Model consistency remains very good from run to run and little has changed in the short term period. Flow continues to pump in much warmer air into the region causing afternoon highs to soar well above normal. The jet stream, currently across the northern tier states, will start dropping southward. As this occurs, some of the stronger winds aloft will mix to the surface bringing another day of gusty winds, especially to the northern valleys. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts reaching near 40 mph at times Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere gusts around 20 to 25 mph will be common. Speaking of, the location of the jet will keep some gusty winds in the forecast for the next several days. Models continue to highlight a weak shortwave moving over the northern mountains, possibly producing a few showers overnight through Wednesday morning. However, chances remain around 20 to 40% with amounts almost too low to mention. Once the wave passes, northwesterly flow will setup and bring cooler temperatures to the region. This colder air will be noticeable for the northern valleys as highs drop about 10 to 12 degrees. Central locales will drop between 5 to 10 degrees and the cold air won't make it over the San Juans so southern valleys can expect similar temps as we've seen lately. High pressure then returns causing a bump in highs as generally dry conditions continue.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 951 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

West to northwest flow will remain through the latter half of the week into the coming weekend with a tightened gradient thanks to a strong jet aloft sitting to our north. This will lead to breezy afternoons, especially across the north where the winds and mixing will be strongest as the jet dips a bit further south. Conditions will remain dry at least through Saturday with temperatures warming 10 to 15 degrees above normal on Thursday and Friday and as much as 15 to 20 degrees above normal by the weekend. This means lower valleys will see high temperatures in the 70s by the end of the week into the weekend with some lower desert valleys in southeast Utah flirting with low 80s. Given the breezy conditions and lower relative humidity across the south, critical fire weather conditions are possible across the southwest Colorado valleys. Across the north where winds are strongest, relative humidity is more elevated so critical fire weather is not as much a concern here. The jet will dip a bit further south late Saturday into Sunday as a shortwave trough skirts across northwest Colorado, followed by another jet streak Monday. At this time, moisture is limited and minimal precipitation accumulation is expected across the northern mountains with light snow mainly above 9000 feet. However, overall conditions remain dry outside of the northern mountains late this weekend into early next week with not much budge in the above normal warmth as high pressure remains to the west and the polar jet remains to our north.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Winds are light and terrain-driven this morning, though gusts are expected to strengthen at all terminals beginning between 17-19Z. Gusts will reach 20-30 kts at most terminals throughout the afternoon. These strong winds are likely to linger throughout most of the night as well. Rain and snow showers may develop over the Park Range tonight and could potentially reach KHDN between 02-06Z Wednesday. Should precipitation fall at KHDN, impacts are expected to be minimal.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.