textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- A few inches of snow is on tap for the northern Colorado mountains late Wednesday into Thursday. Slippery stretches will develop over mountain passes.

- Warming days, cool nights, and dry weather persist through the weekend for most.

- A pattern change is possible early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 250 AM MST Wed Jan 28 2026

A shortwave trough currently located near northern California will begin its trek eastwards through the Great Basin this morning. Deterministic models still anticipate it to clip the northern portions of our CWA beginning tonight. This system doesn't pack much of a punch regarding moisture with PWAT's only expected to peak at 125-150% of normal, but it does bring some favorable upper-level forcing. This is giving our northern Colorado mountains a chance for snow, focused over the Park Range near Rabbit Ears Pass and near the CO-WY border. The strongest snowfall is likely early in the morning before sunrise on Thursday, though it could begin before midnight and should last through much of the day Thursday.

Models are still fluctuating a fair amount on snow totals, and thus uncertainty is relatively high at the moment. Some model guidance, including the NBM, is trending upwards for snow totals, but a lot of this will hinge on the finer details of the storm. Should moisture stay further to our north or drag behind the leading edge of the trough where the bulk of the forcing will be, we could see weaker accumulation. Additionally, snow ratios may be running a tad too high, which could be bulking up the accumulations as well. Regardless, we have opted to up our snow totals slightly to 4-7" along the spine of the Park Range with 1-3" still the expectation over the Flat Tops and Elkheads. Should model guidance over the next 12 hours continue to trend upwards, it could give us better reason to hedge higher on the accumulations, but that remains to be seen. Either way, winter impacts should be expected with this storm. Slick roads will be possible over mountain passes overnight and gusty winds could further complicate mountain travel throughout the day.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 250 AM MST Wed Jan 28 2026

The CWA will remain under northwesterly flow as very weak disturbances drop down from the north possibly bringing a few flurries to the northern mountains from time to time. Most of the area will see plenty of sunny skies, less so for the northern valleys and mountains thanks to those same waves. As far as any significant precip is concerned, not looking good. Ridging builds in through the weekend and as winds become more southwesterly, high temps will start increasing. By Saturday, highs will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal and remain so through Monday. On the horizon, a more potent upper level trough and surface front may bring a round of some precip on Tuesday. Of course, ensembles are in disagreement on how far south this trough will move, available moisture, and coverage. This far out it's to be expected so we'll keep an eye on things, do our snow dance, and hope for the best.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 927 PM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with light, terrain driven winds. High clouds will drift overhead tonight and lower to near mountain top level by tomorrow afternoon across the north as the next storm storm approaches the area.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.