textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected Thursday afternoon across the Gunnison River Basin and northern portions of the San Juans. Red Flag Warnings are in effect.

- Temperatures begin to heat up again. Multiple high temperature records are likely to be broken throughout the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Isolated showers and storms may return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The pattern remains essentially the same. High pressure to our south is maintaining a persistent flow of hot and dry air through the CWA. The center of the high is close enough overhead that the strongest upper-level flow isn't making it to our region, somewhat hampering winds and gusts. However, some mild enhancement in said upper-level flow dips down across the northern and central CWA Thursday, and with clear skies in the forecast supporting strong mixing, this should be enough to prompt some 25-30 mph gusts in some locations and yet another day of scattered critical fire weather concerns. On Thursday, these concerns will generally be confined to the Gunnison River Basin and northern portions of the San Juans. As the high lifts subtly northwards Friday and into the weekend, winds die off once more, leading to a low probability in critical fire weather conditions aside from very localized areas. This does coincide with another heat-up though, raising valley locations back to 10 degrees above normal, which will once again threaten to break high temperature records. We might see some changes next week as models are hinting at some moisture sneaking up underneath the high bringing more isolated to scattered showers and storms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 509 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions will persist for the next 24 hours with hazy skies due to smoke from wildfires. Visibility is not expected to be lower than 6SM. Light terrain driven winds this morning. Gusts of 20-30 mph at times in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Wind speeds pick up marginally across the Gunnison River Basin and northern San Juans Thursday afternoon as a enhanced upper-level flow moves overhead. The unfortunate part of this is that these stronger winds (and already established single digit relative humidities) are expected to overlap with the Elk Fire and potentially the Gold Mountain Fire. Winds do remain on the marginal side of fire concerns, but they are expected to reach critical fire weather criteria nonetheless. As a result, Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Colorado zones 292 and 293. Elsewhere across the CWA, critical fire weather conditions are more localized, though single digit relative humidities are likely to dominate region-wide.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ292-293. UT...None.