textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding and high flows along the San Juan river continue for southeast Utah into Tuesday.

- Monday through Thursday is expected to be mostly dry, but another impactful system is possible next weekend.

- Model guidance reflects some uncertainty in storm tracks, leading to inconsistencies in moisture volume forecasts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Warmer and drier conditions have begun to develop across the West Slope today, as weak higher pressure invades. Temperatures will inch up toward average values by week's end. The dry conditions will help with flood waters that have begun to recede across southern CO and southeast UT. A weak clipper system working across the PACNW on Tuesday will bring a few clouds to northwest CO. Non zero precipitation chances could bring an isolated sprinkle or flurry to the high country up there, but little to no measurable moisture is expected.

Late Thursday, models begin to develop a system that drops southward down the PACNW coast. Presently, this system digs southward Friday and Saturday. This will ramp up southwesterly flow across the Four Corners. Winds will likely pick up in the forecasts as the week progresses and models get a better handle on this system. Storm tracks and depth of cold air are an early point of concern in this forecast. Model runs have already pushed impacts further out than initial runs were projecting. Probabilistic guidance is still indicating 50/50 chances for heavier rainfall across southwest CO Sunday and Monday. Saturated soils from this weekend's storms make this a much more impactful forecast, as low end rainfall totals could push streams back towards action stage. For now, the strongest moisture push arrives Sunday into Monday. Snow levels remain around 10000 feet, which is very similar to the last storm, leaving the bulk of lower elevations in rainfall. This is a developing forecast and will become more refined as details emerge from the models, giving more clarity.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1118 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Dense stratus is beginning to break up late this morning, and by the afternoon we expect for VFR conditions to be restored at all terminals. Conditions dry out marginally over the next 24 hours, but some locations may again see dense stratus Tuesday morning, primarily ASE, EGE, DRO, GUC, HDN, and VEL. TAF's include scattered lower cigs for these terminals as a result. It is uncertain how low cigs will be and if they will become broken or overcast for any period, but cigs at these terminals are at risk of briefly reaching ILS breakpoints around sunrise. As it stands now though, few to scattered cloud cover looks to be the likeliest scenario. Winds will be light and terrain-driven throughout the TAF period.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 109 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Most rivers have receded below flood stage although flooding is still ongoing along the San Juan river in southeast Utah as the peak crests arrive this afternoon. The high flows are expected to continue into Tuesday before waters recede below flood stage. Conditions are dry Monday through Thursday. There is the potential for another impactful system this weekend.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.