textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions will remain mostly south of the Colorado River Friday.

- Well above normal temperatures remain in place for Independence Day and beyond.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms could return Sunday afternoon then increase in coverage next week. New fire starts remain a concern due to the dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Southwest flow remain in place aloft over the Intermountain West/Rockies...squeezed between a dual cell SubTrop High over the Southern States and a trough over W.Canada and the PacNW. The gradient remains strong enough over us on Friday to keep a threat of gusty afternoon winds. With no moisture relief and warming temperatures hot...dry and windy conditions keep critical fire weather conditions in place over southern portions of western Colorado. Unfortunately this is over several of our active wildfires and the air quality will continue to suffer from the resultant smoke plumes. There remains just a bit of moisture advecting across the northern Great Basin which led to clouds and very high based virga across our northern CWA this evening. Convergent flow above the Uintas tomorrow afternoon looks to tap into this high based moisture once again and lead to isolated storms over the higher terrain of northeast Utah. High pressure builds across the Rockies through the weekend pushing temperatures upward and leading to a weaker flow pattern aloft. This will bring a welcome end to to widespread critical fire weather conditions though a few stronger gusts remain an afternoon threat due to deep mixing. Anticyclonic flow around high pressure centered over the Southern Rockies combined with cyclonic flow ahead of a trough arriving to the Southwest produces a favorable flow for pulling up SubTrop moisture from the lower latitudes. 315K transport vectors shows this moisture arriving to far southern Utah through Sunday afternoon and spreading northward through the overnight hours. Soundings early in the week suggest the bulk of this moisture remains above 600mb though surface dewpoints also respond upward which should bring some small relief to the single digit humidity of the past few weeks. The probability of widespread wetting rainfall will this push of moisture is very low though a few mountain storms are likely to bring some decent rates to the ground. The bigger concern will be new lightning starts and gusty outflow winds interacting with our wildfires. Moisture lingers somewhat through midweek before the northern stream suppresses the ridge to the south and westerly flow ushers drier air back in to end out the week. Temperatures for the most part will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1156 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Terrain-driven winds persist through ~18z, then southwesterly gusts of 15-25 knots are expected for the afternoon/evening. Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibility at some locations throughout the next 24 hours. The most likely terminals to be impacted are MTJ and GUC where vis may fall to MVFR, though vis reduced to 5 or 6SM could still occur at other terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1054 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Red Flag Warnings continue for much of southwest into west central Colorado on Friday, as favorable mixing conditions will work in concert with low relative humidity, especially favoring the terrain, and coincidentally, the areas with active wildfire. As an upper ridge builds across the Southern Rockies through the weekend and reducing the threat of widespread critical fire weather conditions. Despite persistent hot and dry conditions winds will be weakening. Moisture working under the high late Sunday will lead to isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development through early next week. Much of the focus will be over the terrain but a few storms are likely to wander into adjacent valleys. Fire starts and gusty outflow threats remain more of a threat than wetting rainfall in most areas. Some relief to the single digit afternoon humidity will arrive with the moisture and hopefully aid in reducing fire intensity.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ207- 290>294. UT...None.