textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions continue Thursday and Friday.

- A system will bring the chances for precipitation this weekend.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 935 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

WARM AND DRY

A system pass to our north will push a weak cold front into the area. Temperatures tomorrow cool by 5-10 degrees compared to today. Moisture also fills in behind the system allowing for isolated showers mainly on the higher terrain in the afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will be more likely than measurable rainfall. Not much changes on Friday other than a jet approach from the north. This cause the afternoon wind gusts to slightly increase.

WEEKEND

On Saturday a trough deepens to our west causing southwest flow to becomes established. As a result the winds are expected to increase. This flow advects enough moisture for scattered showers mainly in the afternoon and evening. Development will be along a cold front that the trough pushes through. On Sunday the cold front sweeps through the area allowing temperatures cool by about 10 degrees for most locations. The front will interact with some moisture so precipitations chances increase. Post frontal winds increase especially the southern half of the area.

EARLY NEXT WEEK

The cooler air mass settles into the region causing highs to be around 10-20 degrees below normal. Persistent moisture keeps precipitations chances going. This could also mean the return of mountain snowfall especially Monday night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 517 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Mainly clear skies will keep flight conditions solidly in the VFR over the next 24 hours. Winds this afternoon will be the main concern with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible during the peak heating hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 935 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Winds remain gusty along the west side of the Divide tomorrow resulting in a Red Flag Warning for COZ293. Elsewhere, a very dry airmass moves in (RH in the single digits to low teens), but winds won't be as strong. Watch out for localized critical fire weather conditions. Same conditions are expected on Friday with slight higher winds north of I-70. Humidity increases this weekend with the exception of the Four Corners region, which stays dry and windy. Humidity continues to increase to Monday and Tuesday with chances for precipitation as well.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ293. UT...None.