textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry weather continues through the week with a chance to set daily high temperature records each afternoon.

- Non-zero precipitation chances are possible for the northern mountains late Monday with little chance of measurable precipitation.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions develop under a hot, dry, windy regime Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS:

High clouds continue to stream across the area through Tuesday as the high pressure ridge re-establishes itself and the jet lays across the north. During this transition phase, a 100 kt jet streak will pass across the northern mountains Monday evening in northwest flow with some light orographic showers possible along the northern Divide mountains. However, the air mass is so dry that there is still a lot of dry low level air to overcome...so these "showers" may just amount to virga and some gusty winds more than any wetting precipitation. The ridge regains its footing across the western slope as the ridge amplifies further north by Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow significant WAA to take place with highs returning towards 25 degrees above normal. There is a chance that Wednesday's high could surpass the most recent all time March high for Grand Junction (which was 87 set on March 21) with a forecasted high in the upper 80s to near 90 by Wednesday, March 25th.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS:

A stronger jet will sag southward by Thursday, allowing stronger winds to mix down to the surface as the pressure gradient tightens on Wednesday into Thursday. Relative humidity values will fall back below 15 percent with gustier winds, especially across the northern zones leading to critical fire weather conditions once again. Winds subside Friday, but continued low relative humidities and afternoon gusts are expected to keep some level of localized critical fire weather conditions in the forecast into the coming weekend.

LOOKING AHEAD:

While generally anticyclonic flow continues across the West late this week, a more progressive pattern evolves allowing temperatures to adjust to a modest 15-20 degrees over normal. Deterministic models continue to attempt a pattern shift early next week, hopefully more than just wishful thinking.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with high scattered to broken clouds. Light drainage driven winds overnight will become westerly gusting 20 to 30 kts between 18Z and about 02Z. Mid-level ceilings above ILS breakpoints move in mostly across the northern areas.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.