textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- An additional 1-2" of precipitation is expected over the high terrain through Wednesday, with locally higher amounts likely over the Uintas. Some of this will be in the form of snow down to 9000 feet...but most significant above 10000 feet.

- Winds will be lighter in the lower elevations on Monday but gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range can be expected. Some gusts could be stronger near passing showers. - Much cooler temperatures can be expected over the next several days with below freezing overnight temperatures possible by Thursday morning in some higher valley locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1046 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A strong downstream blocking ridge will favor the trough over the West to linger upstream of us through early Tuesday. This will keep us in strong Southwest flow aloft and a generally warmer and moist environment. As mentioned earlier the highly anomalous tropical plume will be advecting north of the area tonight but still remain above normal until the trough passes and we begin to dry out after midweek. Winds will remain breezy in the leading edge of the trough with gusts of 25 to 35 mph...with a few higher gusts possible in the 4 Corners region tomorrow afternoon. Higher gust over the terrain can be expected as well. The parent low in this trough is over the Oregon this evening and model consensus has it digging through the Intermountain West to the 4 Corners region by Tuesday evening. This will keep broad ascent over our area supported by the jet aloft which will keep working on the moisture to produce showers through Tuesday morning. The best chances will be over the western 2/3 of the CWA and the San Juans with less coverage over the central divide. Ascent increases significantly through the day Tuesday as the upper low digs through the lower Great Basin. This will ooze a cold front through the area under the strong QG signal supported by the 130+kt jet aloft. This will bring another widespread precipitation event through Wednesday evening. With the arrival of the front and colder air aloft snow levels will be dropping toward 9000 feet bringing our first hint of sweater weather. Though snow flakes could be falling at lower elevations for a while the best accumulations are still favored to be above 10k feet. We will continue to watch the evolution of this strong fall storm and hone in on finer details but widespread impacts to travel appear unlikely at this time. Otherwise a much cooler forecast will emerge through at least midweek before a slow warmup begins under drier conditions on Thursday. Overnight lows are forecast to dip below freezing in many of the high valleys by Thursday as well as skies begin to clear behind this system.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 545 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Tropical moisture continues to stream into the region with periods of fast-moving scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. A few stronger storms are possible producing damaging winds, and brief heavy rain. Strong wind gusts up to 25-35 kt outside of thunderstorms will diminish through the evening and overnight as will the convective activity. Winds will pick up again across the region with gusts 20-25 kts after 18Z, as will shower and thunderstorm activity mostly across eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.