textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild conditions continue today and Thursday ahead of the next system moving in late Thursday. - Rain and higher elevation snow showers move into the region from the northwest Thursday spreading to the southeast through the afternoon. - Showers become widespread across the northern and central mountains through the evening and more widely scattered to the South. Snow levels fall below 5,000 feet by early Friday with the heaviest snow forecast over the northern Utah, and northern and central Colorado mountains. - The weather dries out Saturday into early next week with temperatures gradually warming back to 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 127 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Models are in good agreement with each other and with satellite imagery with ridging over eastern Utah and Western Colorado, and the next low pressure system just off the Oregon Coast making landfall. The ensembles are dropping this low down over Utah by tomorrow evening before ejecting it to the northeast across the region tomorrow night into Friday. The models diverge on timing with the European AI ensemble about 12 hours slower than the GEFS to kick this system to the east onto the northern Plains. Guidance is leaning more on the European keeping the upper level low, cold air aloft and QG over the region through Friday to keep the snow machine running through the day before tapering off through the evening. The amount of moisture available for this system is not impressive calling into question the snow totals with this system, but with the instability hanging over the region through Friday, this system should be efficient wringing every last snow flake out of the air. Went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisories for the eastern Uinta Mountains above 8,000 feet beginning noon tomorrow, the Park and Gore Ranges, the Flat Tops, the Battlement and Grand Mesas above 8,000 feet, and the Mosquito Range west to the Elk Mountains above 8,500 feet beginning at 6 PM tomorrow. Look for accumulations of four to ten inches possible in these area with periods of hazardous travel due to poor visibility from snow and blowing snow, and from icy and snowpacked roads.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 127 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Deep troughing will be in control Friday morning, with a pool of 100- 150% of normal moisture across the northern valleys and along the Divide. Precipitation will be widespread and ongoing, and in the wake of an earlier cold front, a much colder airmass will make the primary precipitation type snow. Even the lower valleys will see a few flakes Friday morning, as temperatures run 10-15 degrees below normal. Winter Weather Advisories will be in place through Friday evening. Forcing starts to weaken Friday afternoon, as the upper level trough begins to shift away. Moisture also begins to wane, as drier air starts working in from the west. All activity should come to an end by Saturday morning, with storm total snow in the higher elevations expected to be 6-12 inches, with a trace to 4 inches possible for the lower elevations.

As the main upper level trough tracks northeast, a secondary piece of energy is expected to slide down the backside of the long-wave trough. As this energy hits the base of the larger trough, the system begins to split into two distinct waves. The energy at the base of the trough carves off into its own retrograding closed low, with the original main trough becoming a progressive open wave tracking into the northern Plains. A strong, 130+ knot upper level jet also sliding down the backside of the long-wave trough will help to continue splitting these two features. As a result, eastern Utah and western Colorado will be under a col by Saturday afternoon, with the closed low off the northern Baja, and general troughing east of the Divide. This will keep conditions dry and quiet, with temperatures gradually warming into early next week. Highs Saturday are expected to be near-normal, and should warm to 10-15 degrees above early March climatology by Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1030 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period except for a slight chance of rain/snow showers moving in from the northwest after 15Z impacting KVEL. Winds aloft will increase through the period as a system approaches the region from the west producing areas of Low-Level Wind Sheer (LLWS) after 06Z in the mountains. Look for generally light winds today and tonight with gusty southwest winds picking up near the end of the TAF period as inversions break.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM MST Friday for COZ004-009-013. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to midnight MST Friday night for COZ010. UT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 PM MST Friday for UTZ023.