textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing this afternoon across the Gunnison River Basin and northern portions of the San Juans. Red Flag Warnings are in effect.

- Temperatures begin to heat up again. Multiple high temperature records will likely be broken Friday and Saturday across the region.

- There is a chance isolated showers and thunderstorms may return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

There is little change in the weather pattern with high pressure over the Desert Southwest dominating the pattern. Troughing to the northeast has pushed increased winds aloft farther south over the central areas of eastern Utah and Western Colorado. With the clear skies across the region and strong diurnal heating, look for stronger winds gusting to 30 mph across the Gunnison Basin and the northern San Juans this afternoon which, combined with the very dry conditions with relative humidity in the single digits, is generating critical fire weather conditions. Hence a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon through 8 PM this evening for these areas. Though the gusty winds in other areas across the northern areas are more marginal not warranting a warning, understand that localized areas of critical fire weather conditions will occur across the region. Exercise extra care if you are out in the forest or wilderness areas today. Over the next couple days, the high pressure will build, spreading north and east over the region. This will put a damper on the winds, but look for temperatures soaring to about ten degrees above normal reaching record territory again. Issued a Heat Advisory for Friday and Saturday from 1 PM to 8 PM in the Grand Valley in Colorado and the lower valleys of southeastern Utah from I-70 corridor south. It is wise to avoid being out in the sun during the hottest part of the day. Drink plenty of water, wear light clothing and take regular breaks from strenuous activities.

Looking out in the longer term, the deterministic models are suggesting some low-level moisture sneaking up under the high Sunday into early next week. Guidance is picking up on this moisture, increasing the clouds to reduce the diurnal heating and cool temperatures a bit, but the ensembles are less optimistic, keeping the high entrenched over the Southwest barring the door to the moisture. There's not a lot of confidence either way, so stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Hazy skies are possible across the region due to wildfire smoke. However, visibility is not expected to drop below 6SM. Gusts around 20 to 25 kts are possible this afternoon. Winds will become light and terrain driven tonight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Wind speeds are picking up marginally across the Gunnison River Basin and northern San Juans. Unfortunately, these stronger winds and single digit relative humidities are expected to overlap with the Elk Fire and potentially the Gold Mountain Fire. Winds do remain on the marginal side of fire concerns, but they are expected to reach critical fire weather criteria nonetheless. As a result, Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Colorado zones 292 and 293. Elsewhere across the CWA, critical fire weather conditions are more localized, though single digit relative humidities are likely to dominate regionwide.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ006. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ006. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ292-293. UT...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022-027. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ022-027.