textproduct: Grand Junction
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions highlight the forecast through the next week.
- Isolated terrain-based showers across the San Juans are possible Sunday through Wednesday. The greatest chance for rainfall will be Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1010 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026
WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
High pressure centered over the Southwest will keep warm and dry conditions in place through the weekend and beyond. Some guidance suggests afternoon convection is possible over the southern Colorado mountains, mostly on Sunday, as some moisture circulates through our area with the high pressure. Forcing will be very limited while high pressure is in place, but daytime heating may be enough to get a few isolated showers and thunderstorms going over the southern high terrain Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather is expected. High temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal this weekend, with the most anomalous temperatures occurring north of I-70.
WORKWEEK OUTLOOK:
The forecast for Monday looks similar to Sunday's forecast, with temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal and afternoon convection over the southern high terrain while moisture continues to circulate within the center of high pressure. Some deterministic guidance continues to show the high pressure breaking down Monday night into Tuesday, and a shortwave trough moving across our area on Tuesday. This shortwave could support showers and thunderstorms across more of our higher terrain areas, but both forcing and moisture do not look substantial enough to support significant rainfall. After Tuesday, warm and dry conditions with isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the high terrain is the daily forecast through the workweek.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. FEW to SCT high level clouds will move across the area. Winds will generally be light and terrain driven.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...None. UT...None.
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