textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions highlight the forecast through mid week with the potential for record high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Localized critical fire weather conditions are possible each afternoon. Those conditions become more widespread on Wednesday and Saturday.

- Showers and a few storms capable of strong gusty winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 954 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

A ridge will continue to build over the region for the next few days allowing temperature to hit near record values. Limited moisture underneath this ridge has resulted in dry surface conditions. On Wednesday a trough will approach from the northwest causing the winds to increase. This will introduce elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the area. This system will draw some moisture from the southwest mainly in the mid to upper levels. It may be sufficient enough for showers. Now most of the rain will have trouble reaching the ground since it will be so dry. The showers will likely produce gusty outflow winds. There may be enough instability for some thunderstorms as well. The trough passes to our north on Thursday flattening the ridge and bringing a weak front. This will cool us down by a 5-10 degrees. Not much changes for Friday. On Saturday there is the potential for another system to approach the area. This is causing the winds to increase and elevated fire weather conditions. Perhaps it brings enough moisture for precipitation, but the strength of the trough is uncertain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 516 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Skies will be mostly clear aside from some passing high clouds, mainly north of I-70. Winds will follow typical terrain driven patterns. Some terminals will see gusts of 15-20 knots after 18z this afternoon, tapering off by 03z this evening. VFR conditions will prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 959 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Localized critical fire weather conditions are possible each afternoon. Those conditions become more widespread on Wednesday and possibly Saturday, which is when gusts could be as high as 40-45 mph. There is a slight chance for isolated dry thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Also, those showers and storms may produce strong gusty winds. Critical conditions are more localized on Thursday and Friday.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ200- 202-290-292. UT...None.