textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- An incoming pattern shift brings cooler temperatures, valley rain, and mountain snow above 9000 feet through tomorrow evening.

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect from 6PM today through 9PM Wednesday for most major mountain groups on the West Slope. Freeze Watches for southern valleys tomorrow night.

- Additional measurable snow expected for the mountains on Friday, with a warmer, drier trend this weekend and beyond.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

GOES ALPW is showing a strong tap of moisture across the Southwest and directed at the central Rockies this evening. The latest GJT sounding indicated this moisture continues to be mainly elevated above 500mb with the persistent inverted V profile still in place. This explains the 45 to 50 mph gusts from virga/showers this afternoon and evening. However this virga is likely continuing the top down saturation process before the stronger ascent arrives later tonight. No matter what you look at...integrated moisture transport vectors...PWAT anomaly...M-Climate QPF...PWAT return intervals...this is as good of moisture tap as we have seen in a long time. If this was truly winter season this would have boosted the SWE profile upward. Not so say this storm won't produce some impressive snow totals...it will just be limited to the highest elevations due to limited cold air and low SLR...more Sierra Cement. Various ensembles are showing QPF amounts in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range over some of the higher terrain with this storm and as much as I have been wanting to brush those numbers aside...they are looking more likely than not. Why? Strong SW to W orographics as this trough approaches and swings through...moderate QG forcing overhead with said trough and a combination of mesoscale forcing and convection. A more organized band of precipitation arcing from southeast Utah into west-central Colorado associated with jet- forced frontogenesis looks to be one reason the QPF bullseyes over the Unc-Grand Mesa-West Elks area. Favorable orographics another reason...which will also favor the fertile crescent of the San Juans. So overall this will be a welcome storm for all even with the wintery impacts tonight and tomorrow through the mountain corridors when snow has the best chance of accumulating on road surfaces. As the PV lobe cuts in by mid- day we go full convective and though precipitation rates in some areas will be robust...the warmer temps and filtered sunshine is expected to improve road conditions. So even with some impressive snow amounts (15+ inches) still content with the winter advisories for expected impacts. The trough axis swings across the divide tomorrow evening keeping some cool air advection/orographic showers over our eastern terrain through sunrise. We get a short break Thursday before the next trough...a colder system...moves through late Thursday through Friday. Will continue watch trends with this system and tackle it after this bigger event ends. Freezing temperatures where significant growing degree days have pushed plants out of dormancy will be possible Thursday morning along the southern Colorado valleys. Colder air moving in late Thursday will expand the freeze threat to other valleys through the weekend. The fruit growing areas of the Grand Valley and North Fork Valley have at least a 50 percent chance of seeing temperatures at or below freezing Friday and Saturday mornings. Stay tuned for additional Freeze Watches and/or Warnings as confidence increases.

Spring Returns

Temperatures rebound above normal this weekend, as weak high pressure builds back in. Models keep things on the progressive side, likely sending a few clouds across the region, but little in the way of precipitation at the moment. Temperatures climb back up around 10 degrees over normal early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Breakpoint conditions continue across the region thanks to a spring storm bringing valley rain and mountain snow to terminals. TEMPO low visibility and ceilings, as well as PROB30 TSTMS, added to most TAFs to account for an active weather pattern the next 12 hours. Conditions begin to improve tonight, but uncertainty lingers over whether or not mountain locales will clear out their clouds and ceilings before daybreak Thursday. Additional intermittent light mountain snow could pose challenges late in this period and beyond.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ004- 009-010-012-013-018-019. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for COZ021>023. UT...None.