textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue through the work week.

- Valley rain and mountain snow returns to the forecast this weekend favoring the southern mountains and adjacent foothills.

- An active weather pattern continues next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1053 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY:

High pressure will persist through the work week bringing unseasonably warm and dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to run 5-10 degrees above normal through Friday.

COOLER, WETTER THIS WEEKEND:

A period of unsettled weather arrives this weekend and beyond beginning with a fast-moving low pressure system. Moisture-rich southwesterly advects into the Four Corners region ahead of the low pressure system approaching from the west. Precipitation begins Friday night as moisture advection intensifies. Mountain snow is favored above 8,000-9,000 feet with valley rain below. Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well on Saturday afternoon.

There's still a lot of model spread for the QPF of this storm- about an inch between the 25th to 75th percentile over and adjacent to the San Juans. This means that there will likely be refinements made to the rain and snow forecasts in future forecast packages. NBM snowfall data continues to support a high potential (>80% chance) for 6+ inches over the San Juans above 9,000-10,000 feet, with a low potential (<20% chance) for 12+ inches. Impacts wise, slippery to hazardous travel is likely over mountain passes with reduced visibility while it's snowing.

Snow levels drop to around 7,000 feet late Saturday night. However, precipitation chances will be winding down by then. Lingering orographic showers could produce light snow at lower elevations through early Sunday morning. Temperatures through the weekend will run near-normal for mid-November.

LOOKING AHEAD:

An unsettled pattern remains in place next week with another round of valley rain and mountain snow possible by mid week. Forecast confidence is very low at this time due to sizable differences in the timing, strength, and track of the next low pressure system. Current trends support another fast-moving storm arriving Tuesday evening.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 416 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

We will have about another 24 hours with minimal impacts to flight conditions as high cloudiness drift through at times and winds remain on the light side. Moisture increases tomorrow evening and this will expand to shower activity and lowering cigs through early Saturday. Lower flight criteria will become more probable through the day on Saturday and many TAF sites.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.