textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Exceptionally warm temperatures continue through Monday, with gusty winds and near-record highs Monday afternoon.

- Accumulating snow is possible in the northern and central mountains through Sunday afternoon. - Mild conditions continue next week with additional snowfall for mountain locales around 9-10kft.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1017 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Radar returns are showing up this evening as moisture increases ahead of a weak shortwave and jet streak that will move across the area overnight into Sunday afternoon. This was preceded by a rather thick altostratus deck and currently we aren't seeing much evidence yet of anything reaching the ground. Looking at the 00Z GJT sounding, there is plenty of dry air at the low levels that still needs to be overcome before precipitation can reach the ground. Precipitation should have a better chance to reach the higher elevations after midnight with best potential overnight through noon Sunday and trailing off after that. Snow levels remain high as temperatures remain rather mild with snow levels around 8-9kft overnight and rising to between 9-10kft Sunday afternoon. All in all, it's looking like about 1 to 2 inches of snow possible at pass level with locally higher amounts above timberline over the Park Range. This precipitation looks to favor the northwest Colorado and central Colorado mountains primarily as the jet streak tracks across the north. It is also possible we see rain or a rain/snow mix at pass level at times as well. Even though we aren't expecting a lot of snow, we could still see a messy Sunday morning commute over Vail and Rabbit Ears Pass. Temperatures will warm quite a bit Sunday afternoon with another warm day in store despite this disturbance moving through. Highs will reach 15 to 20 degrees above normal with temperatures well into the 60s for many lower valleys and even hitting 70s in some southeast Utah valleys.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1017 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

On Monday, low pressure progresses over the Great Basin causing slight ridging over our area. This could allow temperatures to climb a few degrees and therefore get close to record values. Winds increase aloft and deep mixing will bring those winds down to the surface in the afternoon. The low pressure passes overhead late Monday into Tuesday. Models are beginning to suggest that the track of the low will be near the CO/WY state line. This will focus a majority of the precipitation along and north of I-70. Temperatures remain mild through this event so the accumulating snow will be confined to above 8-9 kft. Another system could approach us from the northwest on Thursday. Although forecast confidence is low during this time period due to differences in the strength, location, and timing of this trough, but in general we anticipate another dose of mountain rain/snow with mild daytime temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 441 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Some light radar returns are moving across KRIL and KASE bringing some light rain/snow to those areas. MVFR ceilings are also being reported there. However, this should only continue for the next few hours and then clouds will start to lift. Scattered to broken skies will be the rule today though ceilings are expected to continue lifting through the day. ILS breakpoints will be met for KRIL, KASE, KEGE, and KHDN this morning but by 18Z they should increase above those breakpoints. A few gusty winds may occur this afternoon.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.