textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions become more localized Thursday and Friday as we head into the end of the week.

- Upper 90s to triple digit heat is expected for the desert valleys through late week with a slight cool down expected through the weekend. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal return next week.

- Stronger winds and continued low humidity brings a return of widespread critical fire weather conditions on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The gradient will lessen Thursday and Friday as the upper level jet lifts northward and a shortwave ridge slides overhead by Friday. This will result in less windier conditions than we've seen recently with more localized critical fire weather conditions expected as gusts of 25 to 30 mph are possible at times mainly for Four Corners and Gunnison Basin. Therefore, decided not to issue any Red Flag Warnings for Thursday and Friday since it looks more localized. There is some moisture trapped underneath this shortwave ridge that is currently sitting over Arizona, allowing for thunderstorm activity at this time. Chances are fairly low but cannot be ruled out to see some isolated dry thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday afternoon over the high terrain as this ridge slides overhead and brings some elevated moisture with it although the low levels are very dry. Gusty winds and lightning would be the main concerns if anything does form as some hi-res CAMs are picking up on elevated convection potential, although chances are fairly low. Temperatures remain hot and dry to close out the week with upper 90s to triple digit heat expected for the lower desert valleys.

WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY:

By Saturday, winds aloft increase and the gradient tightens as a shortwave trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and tracks across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies with a decent 80 kt jet overhead. This will result in more widespread critical fire weather conditions as winds ramp up with gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range possible with single digit relative humidities. Decided not to issue Fire Weather highlights just yet given it's still 3 days out but it's trending that direction. Saturday is looking like the peak in terms of winds and more widespread critical fire weather conditions through this forecast period. Temperatures cool a bit as well with this trough passage with a remote chance of an isolated thunderstorm over the high terrain but the atmosphere remains very dry with no wetting rain expected.

CONTINUED HOT DRY AND BREEZY NEXT WEEK:

Winds lessen Sunday into early next week following Saturday's trough passage as a high pressure ridge builds back over the west and the stronger jet lifts to the northeast. So we will still see breezy conditions and continued dry and hot conditions as high temperatures return to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by next week and more triple digits for the desert valleys.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Breezy winds of 10-15 kts are still ongoing at RIL, GJT, and CNY tonight, but light and terrain-driven winds should settle in within the next couple hours. Gusts pick up again tomorrow afternoon with all terminals (aside from VEL) likely to see gusts of 18-25 kts. DRO may be a little windier with gusts up to 30 kts possible. The strongest winds will subside by 00-03Z region-wide. VFR conditions persist throughout the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Critical fire weather conditions become more localized to end out the week as the core of stronger winds aloft move out of the area. Hot and dry conditions will remain however. Stonger winds return Saturday as an approaching wave breaks down temporary ridge over the Rockies. This is likely to bring a return to widespread critical fire weather conditions. This wave will bring very minimal chances of thunderstorms to the forecast, however gusty winds and lightning will be more of a concern than wetting rainfall. Hot and dry conditions are likely to keep at least localized fire weather concerns in place each day.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.