textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures persist.

- Periodic showers and storms are expected this week. Precipitation will favor the higher terrain.

- A more robust weather system looks to impact the region this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 945 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

WORK WEEK OUTLOOK:

Light showers will continue through the overnight as a shortwave trough passes to our south. Not much evidence of anything reaching the ground as low levels remain very dry with limited CAPE so no lightning yet. Anticipate mainly virga with some breezy conditions at times. For Tuesday, the back edge of the shortwave trough will push through the area with a bit more sun by late morning/early afternoon and better instability as CAPE rises to around 200 to 400 J/kg on average by Tuesday afternoon. CAMs favor the central and southern divide mountains and adjacent valleys for precipitation with a better chance to see a few thunderstorms. Could also see an inch or two of snow in the higher elevations well above timberline.

After this shortwave trough passes through, subtle ridging will build back in Wednesday with a primarily zonal flow as several weak waves ebb and flow through this zonal pattern, leading to daily showers mainly over the high terrain through Friday with very light precipitation amounts. The main story will be rising temperatures with most locales seeing afternoon highs ranging from 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK:

The global ensembles are keying in on a robust trough moving across the Western US this coming weekend into early next week. While it is too early to dive into the details, these systems generally bring an influx of cooler air and wetter weather as they pass through.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 528 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Scattered light showers remain across southwest Colorado where KTEX has best chance of VCSH, lower CIGS and some gusty outflow winds due to passing showers. Gusty winds remain this evening at most TAF sites and should subside with sunset with light, terrain driven winds overnight. SCT to BKN cloud cover will continue through the overnight with showers redeveloping Tuesday afternoon. Breezy afternoon winds can be expected with gusts to 25 kts with best chance of a shower or two or isolated thunderstorm at KTEX, KGUC, KDRO and KASE so included PROB30 groups for those TAF sites. VFR conditions expected to prevail despite showers with brief MVFR if any shower passes but rain will have a tough time making it to the ground in the valleys due to low level dry air.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.