textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds will continue today, favoring the Four Corners with the strongest gusts, while the remainder of the region remains locked into a significant critical fire weather regime.

- Winds diminish some on Monday, but dry and windy conditions will persist through the week, with temperatures returning to above normal by week's end. Wetting rains are not expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 321 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Winds have decreased enough early this morning that critical fire weather conditions appear more localized at this time in areas where the Red Flag Warning was extended until 4 am MDT this morning. Relative humidity is showing some signs of recovery but still remains in the 10 to 15 percent range in some areas. Therefore, decided to cancel the Red Flag Warning that was in effect until 4 am this morning.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect today from noon until 10 pm. Decided to add CO Fire Zone 205 below 8000 feet, 293 and 295 below 9000 feet to the Red Flag Warning for today as criteria looks to be met with continued low relative humidity and strong winds. Also, expanded the Wind Advisory today to include UTZ27 (Moab/Grand Flatt) and COZ011 (Delta-Montrose) as winds are projected to gust to 45 mph or higher at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1016 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Models are in good agreement with a deep low descending through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin setting up a longwave trough over the Western States while ridging builds into the Midwest overnight into Sunday. While the Great Basin low ejects to the northeast into Montana Sunday into Monday, a train of shortwave systems lined up across the Northern Pacific to the Bering Strait continue to track through the longwave trough, anchoring it over the Intermountain West. To the east, the ridge continues to build into the Midwest, expanding to the Eastern Seaboard by early in the work week setting up a blocking ridge that will continue through next weekend. As the shortwave systems move through the longwave trough, the winds will vary between southerly and westerly over eastern Utah and Western Colorado, but after tomorrow, the jet aloft weakens, and with it, afternoon winds will be more reasonable at 20 mph gusting 30 mph. The continued southwesterly flow aloft keeps the region in a very dry airmass through the week. Current guidance has the winds taper off through the first half of the week and pick back up through the last half, but with that being said, expect near critical to critical fire weather conditions across much of the region each afternoon.

Look for one more day of strong gusty winds tomorrow (Sunday) with wind advisories for southeastern Utah, the Four Corners area, the Upper and Lower Dolores River areas, and the Paradox Valley starting at 10 AM with Red Flag Warnings being hoisted at noon for eastern Utah and far Western Colorado. There is a Fire Weather Watch in place for Monday for eastern Utah, far Western Colorado, and the Delta and Gunnison Basin areas. There is still significant uncertainty for specifics of the fire weather conditions beyond Monday, so stay tunes for updates over the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 550 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Southwest winds will continue to gust at KMTJ and KCNY through the morning with most areas seeing lighter winds this morning with LLWS being a concern until deeper mixing begins, which should be sometime after 15 or 16Z in most locations. Southwest winds will increase late this morning into the afternoon with peak gusts in the 30 to 40 kt range expected. Smoke from numerous wildfires across the area could impact terminals throughout the 24 hr period but only included mention in the morning as confidence is too low during the afternoon to include in the TAF beyond 15Z. VFR conditions will generally prevail, with the exception of drops to MVFR due to smoke at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 321 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions remain firmly locked in place. Numerous new fire starts grew into wildfires yesterday (Saturday) afternoon in eastern UT and western CO. Strong winds beneath a southwesterly jet streak will continue to stoke fires overnight into the day today (Sunday). Wind Advisories are in effect again for Sunday around the Four Corners as well as the Grand Flatt (Moab) and Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin (Delta- Montrose areas), where winds will gust in excess of 45 mph. This will prove to be another exceptional day of critical fire weather conditions for most of the region. Blocking high pressure downstream will keep the West Slope beneath strong winds into Tuesday. Fire Watches are in place Monday thanks to another gusty, dry day. Afternoon relative humidities show little sign of easing this week. Overnight humidity recovery will provide some relief to fire growth. However, by week's end portions of eastern UT and extreme western CO could see very little humidity recovery. Wetting rains remain unlikely this week, until we can secure some extra- tropical moisture. Models are hinting at a week plume working north by next Friday. This seems like a thin hope at this far out.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ202-203-205-207-290-292>295. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for COZ200-202-203-207-290-292>294. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ011-020-021. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490-491. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for UTZ487-490-491. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027.