textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions persist into early next week for most.

- There is a 10-30% chance for light rain/snow over the San Juans on Saturday. Impacts are not anticipated.

- A pattern shift to cooler and wetter conditions looks to develop by Tuesday and is likely to persist though much of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 223 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

High pressure finally breaks down tonight, although it will take a few more days for most of us across western Colorado and eastern Utah to notice much of a difference (aside from denser cloud coverage). Temperatures remain unseasonably warm with many locations running 15-20 degrees above normal for early February.

Light precipitation cannot be ruled out over the San Juan mountains tomorrow afternoon as weak lift and modest moisture combine for some flurries/sprinkles, quick bursts of light snow at most. Impactful accumulation is not anticipated due to warm surface temperatures. Worse case scenario, localized slippery spots may develop over mountain passes.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 223 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

The pleasant weekend continues as a closed low drifts across northern Mexico. Our CWA won't see much in the way of weather besides partly cloudy skies. Warm and dry remains the case as highs continue to run 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal mid- February values. The good news is that a pattern change is on the horizon so some changes are coming. Clouds will increase from northwest to southeast during the day Monday ahead of a relatively weak upper level trough and shallow cold front. Current guidance is suggesting that this boundary will move across the northern valleys and be the focus of some precip for much of Tuesday. Highs will drop by about 10 degrees north of the Bookcliffs but those cooler temps will stay north as the front stalls and weakens. Models are in good agreement that this boundary will continue to weaken and start moving northward early Wednesday morning. This occurs thanks to another trough/front approaching from the west. Southwesterly flow ahead of this next system will bring a quick bump in highs Wednesday as well as a few gusty winds, especially over the higher terrain. The flow will also advect in moisture to the region. The forecast then gets a bit muddled as several shortwaves move through the upper level trough. That being said, Wednesday onwards and into the weekend, we'll see periods of precip with some breaks as one wave moves out and the next moves in. Unfortunately, not all models are on board with this solution. Differences, some significant, continue with regards to the precip amounts, timing, depth and evolution of the system. Even so, there is high confidence (60 to 80%) in this pattern change and a return to more unsettled weather for much of next week. We'll take what we can get.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 920 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Expect VFR conditions, generally light winds with westerly to northwesterly gusts 15-20 kts between 18Z and 01Z, and high clouds moving across the region through the TAF period.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.