textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers continue across the central and southern portions of the region this evening, ending overnight with a few lingering showers over the high terrain.

- Expect dry and warmer conditions through the weekend and into next week with temperatures warming back to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Monday and beyond.

- There is a slight chance for some mountain snow showers Tuesday, but confidence is low at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1010 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Showers will continue this evening over the central and southern portions of the area with precipitation rates lessening as the shortwave trough undergoes a split with a stretching deformation axis lingering overnight across the central portions of the area. The main shortwave trough will exit to the east by Saturday morning while a low cuts off over the Baja. Not expecting much in the way of additional accumulation beyond midnight with most precipitation coming to an end by sunrise Saturday morning. Mostly dry conditions will prevail Saturday morning through the coming weekend as we will remain under this col with high pressure building in from the west and the cut off low sitting over the Baja. There is a very slight chance some showers could pop over the San Juans Saturday afternoon given lingering moisture but not much forcing exists to sustain anything, so may end up seeing a few cumulus pop and that's about it. Temperatures on Saturday will be warmer than Friday given more sunshine and some WAA under this col, with highs near to around 5 degrees below normal. By Sunday, highs will bump up a few more degrees with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. We may see some passing high clouds from time to time due to a more active northern stream but expect more sun than clouds and dry pleasant conditions this weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1010 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Seasonal shift looks to be imminent as the polar jet sets up along the Canadian border this week. This will continue to lock out any arctic air, while the persistent warm air mass across the southern tier of the CONUS sticks around. While temperatures will remain well above climatology this coming week, neutral temperature advection will keep things consistently not winter- like. High pressure in the eastern Pacific will amplify Monday, putting a kink in the jet over the PACNW, as a jet streak digs southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska. This will eventually bring our winds up across the region on Tuesday as the jet moves overhead. Temperatures 10-20 degrees over normal Monday and Tuesday will take a hit Wednesday as this clipper wave glances northern Colorado. Highs will dip 5 to 10 degrees from the Colorado River northward, while down south the front quickly washes out. Non-zero precipitation chances sneak in for our northern mountains on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This will bring some cloud cover south too as the jet settles far enough south to carry some weak moisture across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado from Tuesday onward. Temperatures will rebound upward though, as little cold air can be had south of the jet. Highs in the 80s for the low deserts around the Four Corners can be expected by week's end. Models keep the jet dipping in and out across northwest Colorado too, perhaps keeping some light precipitation and gusty winds for the northern mountains in the forecast too. QPF values remain near zero though, so measurable precipitation next week seems unlikely at this point.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 404 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Some low stratus remains over KASE, KEGE, KMTJ, and KGUC, which could keep these locations below ILS breakpoints until sunrise. Snow chances are very low now though, and any lingering impacts from snow showers should be minimal and diminish over the next couple hours. During the afternoon, skies will be mostly clear and winds will be calm and terrain-driven. VFR conditions are expected to prevail beyond sunrise.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.