textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions persist through the weekend, with temperatures staying some 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Light precipitation or flurries will be possible of the mountains Friday night through Saturday as a batch of moisture works through but impacts will be minimal to none.

- A pattern shift to cooler and wetter conditions looks to develop by Tuesday and is likely to persist though much of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Quiet and dry weather continues...a trend that persists to end out the week. Hand analysis of the H500 04/12Z map shows a robust Rex Block over the western CONUS states with troughing on each side. The Rex breaks down over the the next 24 to 36 hours with an upstream trough disrupting things. The ridge remains dominant and shifts into the Intermountain West tomorrow then along the spine of the Rockies by Friday. The Rex low will be absorbed into the back of the ridge and begin lift northward by late tomorrow. SubTrop moisture looks to be pulled into the dissipating before it begins to trek across the Southwest. This is likely to start as thickening high cloud cover moving toward the 4 Corners by sunrise on Friday. Temperatures stay 10 to 20 degrees above normal tomorrow with the nights also staying warmer than normal in most areas...even with the cold pool areas effectively radiating at night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 300 PM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Friday afternoon into Saturday the shearing energy and moisture lifting northward merge with a passing northern stream wave and basically keeps some weak disorganized lift across the area during this time. There could be mountain flurries or very light orographic precipitation during this time but confidence is extremely low. More likely it will be virga and thicker cloud cover...especially over the lower elevations. The blended models are still signaling the highest probability (around 20 percent!) of measurable precipitation over the southern mountains Saturday afternoon likely due to the addition of convective potential. The ridge is re-established by Sunday keeping dry and warm conditions in place to start out the week. However a cooler and wetter shift to the pattern is still looking on track as we move into Tuesday and beyond. The resilient ridge over the West looks to take at least a temporary hiatus through the middle of the month. As the northern stream trough becomes more established in the West the first cold front and upper support looks to drop into and through our CWA on Tuesday. It is too early for exact details such a snow level and precipitation type in many areas...but through next week the unsettled pattern should begin to trend our snowpack trace in a direction other than downward. Above normal temperatures stay in place through Monday then drop to more seasonable temperatures as we get into the middle of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1019 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Thin high level cloudiness will continue to drift overhead as high pressure builds in overhead. Light terrain winds can also be expected to continue with VFR in control of the TAF over the next 24 hours.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.