textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding and high flows along the San Juan River continue to fall and should be below flood stage by tomorrow morning in most areas.

- Monday through Thursday is expected to be mostly dry with another impactful system possible by the weekend.

- Model guidance reflects some uncertainty in storm tracks, leading to inconsistencies in moisture and river volume forecasts.

UPDATE

Issued at 607 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The San Juan River near Bluff UT has dropped below action stage and continues to fall as do most streams and rivers in the area. The Flood Warning is cancelled for this reason. Though the rivers and streams are receding and flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat, they continue to have higher than normal stream flow posing dangers to anyone in and around the water as well as some areas have residual water from past flooding. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

This evening's H500 hand analysis map shows one system digging through the PacNW into the Northern Rockies with another on its heels just off the coast. These systems remain off to our North as they swing eastward the next few nights. Overall dendritic saturation looks to remain outside our CWA though a few flurries could be possible over the northern high mountains near the WY border the next few nights. Dry weather continues through Thursday before we begin to trend wetter as we head into the weekend. The high latitude pattern looks to fold over itself and close a fairly strong low off the PacNW by the end of the week. There is split flow over the West at this time with the strong Polar jet rounding the base of the PacNW low while the southern stream is directed across the Baja to the 4 Corners. This southerly stream will begin to pull SubTrop moisture back into our area by early Friday. A weak wave moving through the flow will lead to scattered showers by the afternoon but overall QPF amounts look to stay on the lighter side. The upstream split breaks down as we go through the weekend and the resultant stronger upstream jet will force another highly anomalous plume of moisture into the Desert Southwest. PWAT is once again 250-350 percent of normal as it moves into AZ early Sunday. How the pattern ultimately develops Sunday into early next week will have a big bearing on where the bulk of this moisture will be transported. The consensus at the moment looks like the most anomalous mositure will remain mainly south of the 4 Corners but our southern CWA will once again get brushed with PWAT 200-250 percent of normal late Saturday into late Sunday. Saturated soils from a very wet October and especially this last event will make this a much more impactful forecast. Rainfall totals could once again push streams back towards action stage. Snow levels of 9500 to 10000 feet will once again keep the bulk of mid and lower elevation precipitation in the form of rainfall. Stay tuned as forecasts become better refined.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 607 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with generally light winds becoming southwesterly with gusts to 20 kts through the afternoon and evening at KHDN and KTEX. There are some lower clouds developing near KHDN, KEGE, KRIL and KGUC, but have had no reports of fog/stratus at these sites. Still can't rule out brief patchy fog through about 15Z at these sites.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1054 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Most rivers have receded below flood stage. Flooding is still ongoing along the San Juan river in southeast Utah but the crest has occurred at Bluff and the river continues to trend downward and should drop below flood stage by sunrise. Dry through Thursday will allow river levels to continue to fall. There is the potential for another impactful system this weekend. Please stay aware of later forecasts and statement on this developing situation.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.