textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect Friday afternoon for western Colorado and northeastern Utah.

- A chance for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast Saturday and Sunday increasing the risk for new fire starts.

- High pressure builds in next week bringing a return to well above normal temperatures, gusty winds, and dry conditions. Critical fire weather conditions look to continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 956 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The trough overhead which stagnated over us earlier this week has begun to push off to the east, leaving us underneath more westerly to northwesterly flow. Still, afternoon winds have and will continue to be breezy for the foreseeable future. In addition, air on the backside of the trough continues to be dry, leaving very little relief from the very low relative humidities we have been accustomed to for the past week now. As such, look for the fire threat to continue to be the only real concern, likely through next week.

There is some mild inconsistency among deterministic models regarding the upper-level setup Saturday afternoon. The most notable impact this uncertainty has on the forecast is in cloud cover across the southern CWA. This is due to a plume of moisture rising from the southwest around a southern CONUS high, and so the pattern overall will have a notable impact on the location and timing of the plume. What is certain is that we will see little more than a rise in mid- level moisture on Saturday. But whatever cloud cover is able to develop will mildly impact afternoon highs and wind speeds, which could alleviate any fire concerns down south. Additional surface moisture should creep across the CO-NM border on Sunday, bringing chances of light rain showers (40-60% chance) and thunderstorms (25- 45% chance) to the San Juans.

Beyond Sunday, as aforementioned, hot, dry, and windy conditions persist. There may be brief periods where isolated showers over the mountains will be possible, but impacts from these few storms will be minimal at best.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours with clear skies overnight and high thin clouds moving up from the southwest after 12Z. Light drainage winds overnight will become westerly gusting 20 to 25 kts between 15Z and 03Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 956 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Long-term model guidance doesn't give much hope for our CWA in terms of a strong moisture push to truly extinguish the hot, dry, and windy conditions, but we do at the very least appear to have settled into more of a marginal fire weather pattern compared to what we saw earlier this week. The low pressure system to our north is giving way and is expected to broaden and move eastwards over the weekend. Gusts over the next couple days will still be brisk, upwards of 30 mph, maintaining critical fire weather conditions as we close out the work week.

Weak southwesterly flow to our southwest around a southern CONUS high pulls a plume of moisture northwards through the Desert Southwest on Saturday. This becomes the first major question mark regarding impacts to fire weather across the area. The bulk of the moisture remains to our south, that is almost certain. But moderate mid-level moisture may seep into the southern CWA, bringing an uptick in cloud cover which could further weaken gusts Saturday, possibly to the point that southern counties will drop out of Red Flag criteria altogether. This outcome is still uncertain, but recent models trends have indicated a more northwards push of the moisture plume, so we may be leaning towards the milder fire weather scenario for the southern CWA. By Sunday, the San Juans and further towards the CO-NM border will begin to see precipitation potential rise as well. This is question mark number two, as it remains to be seen if surface conditions will have moistened up enough to support wetting rains in these areas, or if dry thunderstorms will dominate. This certainly holds major ramifications on fire weather concerns and will be closely monitored over the coming days. Beyond Sunday, moisture retreats to the south.

The early indication is that fire concerns will generally be marginal through the early week period with gusts and relative humidities near or slightly exceeding Red Flag criteria. No additional highlights have been issued in addition to Friday's Red Flag Warning at this time due to uncertainty, but it is highly likely that portions of the region will need more fire weather highlights throughout the long-term period.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ200>203- 205-207-290>295. UT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Friday for UTZ486-487.