textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Afternoon and evening convection continues though coverage will lessen some today and tomorrow. An uptick is expected from Sunday heading into next week.

- The main concerns from any storms remain heavy rainfall, lightning, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- Storms continue to have the ability to produce flash flooding and debris flows in vulnerable terrain especially for areas near and downstream of burn scars.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

CAMs and deterministic models are all indicating a slight downtick in convection this afternoon. This is in response to a somewhat lower moisture content across the region but will not preclude convection. Once again, convection will initiate off the higher terrain and drift off in a generally west to east direction. While moisture content has lowered some, we can still expect brief, heavy rain under the stronger and slower moving cells with some gusty outflow winds also possible. A few lightning strikes have already been noted at this hour so we can expect this convection to continue through the afternoon and early evening hours. We still remain concerned about those stronger storms, heavy rainfall rates and burn scars so will continue to keep an eye on those areas.

By next week, the high pressure drifts slightly eastward as flow around the high will allow another round of deeper moisture to move into the area. Each afternoon and evening will bring new rounds of convection with the same concerns noted above. Slow moving storms/showers with heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Those flash flooding concerns remain in place especially near vulnerable terrain and all the burn scars across the area. Wednesday may be the most active day as a weak shortwave moves across northern portions of the CWA. This increased lift and instability may make for a more active day. May see a downturn in activity after that as the high pressure drifts directly overhead inhibiting some convection. We shall see. High temperatures will remain on their warm streak...running anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above more usual late July values.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 513 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Lingering monsoonal moisture and northwest flow will combine with warm temperatures and bring another round of afternoon storms to the area. Most of the activity will be over the higher terrain, with a better focus over the southern mountains. KTEX is the most probable are to see a passing storm and this is in the forecast. Otherwise VFR should prevail under a fairly light wind regime over the next 24 hours.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1041 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain will develop this afternoon as well as through the weekend, mainly over higher terrain, although coverage will be less than previous days. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible with the stronger storms. These rates could lead to flash flooding and debris flows, especially over steep terrain and recent burn scars. Also, rain over the past several days has lead to saturated soils, which increase the chances for excessive runoff.

As a reminder: Keep an eye on our forecasts through the end of the week and stay tuned for updated hydrology alerts if visiting or if you reside below terrain vulnerable to flash flooding and/or debris flows. Dry creeks and arroyos can fill quickly and without warning from storms miles away.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.