textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will develop each afternoon/evening for the foreseeable future.

- Heavy rain remains the primary threat of storms across the region. Gusty outflow winds and hail are likely in stronger cells as well.

- Watch out for flash flooding and debris flows in vulnerable terrain, especially for areas near and downstream of burn scars.

UPDATE

Issued at 119 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Temperatures early this morning remain well into the 70s and 80s and with upper 90s to triple digit highs expected again the next few days decided to hoist a heat advisory for many of the western/lower valleys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1007 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

High pressure over the region will dominate the forecast for the next week. Expect little change in the "rinse-and-repeat" forecast with slow moving afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms developing on the higher terrain and a few possibly moving off the terrain into the lower valleys. This moisture with pwats around an inch is trapped under the high with no flow aloft to push it out of the region. Skies clear overnight under the subsidence of the high to allow strong diurnal heating after sunrise leading to cu popping by late morning and conditions becoming convective by about noon. Look for the subsidence under the high to stifle the convection limiting chances for strong thunderstorms at least through Tuesday, but, besides the typical lightning threat, the regime favors slow moving storms that threaten possible localized heavy rain that may produce flash flooding on recent fire scars and steep terrain. You'll want to stay up on the forecast and be aware of your surroundings if you'll be out in the hills this week.

For the latter half of the week, an upper level trough dips south far enough to bring the right entrance region of a few weak jetstreaks over the region, especially the northern areas. Though the upper-level dynamics will be weak, this combined with the strong diurnal heating may be enough to kick off a few strong thunderstorms with possible large hail and stronger outflow gusts. Stay tuned for more detailed updates over the next few days. Under this high pressure over the region, temperatures will stay five to ten degrees above normal for the first half of the week, cooling a few degrees later in the week as the jet dips south.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to drift across the region late this evening along with convective debris clouds. KVEL and KHDN may see one of these showers in the vicinity of the airfield over the next few hours with minimal impacts expected. Otherwise VFR conditions and drainage winds will prevail through the early morning hours. Like days past another round of afternoon thunderstorms are forecast with most TAF sites holding PROB30 groups. Gusty outflow winds and a low probability of MVFR under moderate rain showers will be threats near passing storms.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ001-006. UT...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ022-024-027-029.