textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions persist through the week, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- Breezy winds are likely Tuesday afternoon over the high terrain with a few light mountain snow flurries. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 204 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

High cloud cover is blanketing the northern and central portions of the CWA ahead of a weak shortwave that will be moving southward across the area today as the high pressure overhead slides to the southeast. These clouds are helping keep the low temperatures from bottoming out as they would under clear skies. Hi res guidance is showing a thin band of mid and high level moisture traversing the area with this shortwave as it moves through, which will most likely result in increased mid and high level cloud cover. Very low chance of precipitation is expected with this shortwave but cannot rule out a few flurries over the high terrain as it passes through but confidence is low. Some CAA occurs behind this wave but only by a few degrees compared to yesterday with the slightly cooler temperatures more noticeable across the higher elevation areas and across northwest Colorado valleys. Conditions are expected to remain mostly dry with highs still around 10 to 15 degrees above normal otherwise.

The ridge of high pressure rebuilds across the west by Tuesday forming yet another Rex Block as a low undercuts this ridge off the Baja. A more robust shortwave will drop down the Front Range in the northerly flow during the day on Tuesday. This shortwave provides a bit better moisture and lift which stands a better chance to produce some light snow over the northern and central Divide mountains along with breezy winds along the ridges as a jet streak will accompany this shortwave. Since the jet remains to our east with our CWA, orographics appear to be the main forcing mechanism to produce some light snow or flurries. Very little accumulation is anticipated but highs should drop a couple degrees, still remaining 10 to 15 degrees above normal for most areas with the cooling more noticeable across the mountains. Outside of the Divide, conditions continue to remain dry with mostly sunny skies expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 204 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

A deep low will develop far offshore in the Pacific before traversing towards the west coast later in the week. As a result, high pressure which will have been sitting near- stagnant to our west due to the Rex Block will get nudged overhead. Conditions will get drier with this, though we may get clipped by a pool of moisture embedded with the departing northwesterly flow. So we should retain some partly cloudy skies even as we get trapped underneath the ridge axis on Thursday and Friday. What is more notable though will be the rising temperatures. We'll continue to see afternoon highs 10-20 degrees above normal through the weekend. Record highs will be possible, with the greatest chance for broken records on Friday. Northern portions of our CWA, particularly within the Yampa River Basin and lower elevations in northeast Utah, will be the most prone to reaching record highs with the NBM indicating some locations will have a greater than 50% chance of breaking records.

Ensembles begin to diverge as we enter the weekend, though there's little indication as of now that the Rex Block will give way through Sunday. Cluster analysis reveals some potential for the Pacific low to overcome the Rex Block as early as Monday, but conversely, some clusters still keep the block in place. So, it's too soon to speculate on the likelihood for a pattern shift to arrive early next week, but it's worth paying attention to. Should the Pacific low come out victorious come Monday, we would expect some wetter conditions to arrive early in the week. Once models come into better agreement, we will be able to gauge when and where our next potential for precipitation will occur.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 415 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Broken cirrus clouds sit over most of the region this morning and will begin to clear in the afternoon. VFR conditions and light, terrain-driven winds prevail through the TAF period.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...None.