textproduct: Grand Junction

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers, a few storms, will continue overnight as a disturbance moves across the area.

- Mountain snow returns tomorrow night through Monday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the eastern Uintas for 6 to 12 inches of snow.

- Freezing temperatures are expected to impact portions of the region Monday night into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 916 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

COOLER AND WETTER:

Showers, maybe a few thunderstorms, will continue overnight as a disturbance moves through the area. Most precip today didn't reach the ground but latest observations are finally reporting some rain reaching the surface as we continue to moisten up. Guidance is still showing a trough approaching our area tomorrow with another round of showers and storms possible ahead of said trough. CAPE values of 400 to 600 J/kg indicate some decent instability so with the increasing moisture we could see some showers/storms producing more rain than seen today. Gusty winds will also be possible though with the moisture, don't anticipate winds to be 'too' strong. This system will bring a fairly potent cold front with it which will cause high temperatures to drop considerably from what we've seen over the last few days. Monday, especially, will see high temps drop 10 to 20 degrees below mid May climatological normals.

Accumulating snow is also expected for much of the higher terrain and latest model runs continue to indicate 6 to 12 inches for the eastern Uintas so went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory starting Sunday evening through Monday evening. The Park Range is also expected to see higher amounts but given the nature of a few inches every 6 hours, held off on issuing any products there. Remaining higher elevations in CO and UT will see 2 to 4 inches, mainly above 10K feet. If travelling over any mountain passes tomorrow night into Monday, keep an eye on the latest travel conditions. The area of low pressure will move across our area during the day Monday bringing widespread valley rain and that mountain snow. General troughiness remains over the area through much of the week keeping temperatures below normal through Tuesday reaching seasonal values Wednesday.

FREEZE POTENTIAL:

Low temperatures Tuesday morning are anticipated to reach the mid 20s for much of the northern valleys thanks to the cold front bringing in the cooler temperatures. Areas along the I-70 corridor from Rifle east may also drop to the upper 20s. The southern valleys may do the same but coverage doesn't look as widespread.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Mid and high level clouds with virga and light showers continue to drift northward across the CWA overnight. For the most part VFR should prevail with a very low probability of MVFR conditions at KHDN due to lower cigs. Gusty winds will still be possible near showers with localized gusts up to 30 mph. Showers and thunderstorms once again expand with heating of the day on Sunday with extra lift from approaching storm system. Gusty outflow winds in excess of 45 mph will be the main threat near showers and storms. As we get farther into tomorrow night expect cigs to lower as stratiform precipitation expands and lower flight criteria to be more of a threat.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None. UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM MDT Monday for UTZ023.