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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms continues across central/southeastern portions of the area this evening into tonight. Hail near the size of quarters and wind gusts near 60 MPH would be the primary hazards.

- After a lull in activity Monday morning, another chance for precipitation moves in from the south for the afternoon/evening/overnight hours...with the best chances roughly along/southeast of the Tri-Cities.

- Drier conditions expected for much of Tuesday/Wednesday, before additional precipitation chances spread across the area for the Friday/Saturday time frame.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 414 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Currently...

It was a pretty dreary start to the day across the area, socked in with low level stratus and most places seeing at least patchy fog...northern and eastern portions of the forecast area had visibilities around a quarter-mile at times. Otherwise it's been an overall quiet day. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing sharp south-southwester flow in place ahead of an approaching trough axis moving out of the Rockies and onto the Plains. Radar imagery showing some light showery activity off to our west closer to the main trough axis, as well as convection moving northeast into south central/southeastern KS, tied to shortwave energy and an increased low-level jet. At the surface, the day started with lighter east-southeasterly winds as we sat along/on the north side of a warm front...which turned more southerly through the morning as that front lifted north through the area. Central and eastern portions of the area continue to have at least occasional gusts near 25 MPH here at mid-afternoon...far western locations are light as they sit closer to an approaching cold front. This front/gusty winds and mixing helped diminish the fog earlier today and the lower level clouds continue to clear out from south to north...southwestern portions of the forecast area are currently mostly sunny. Hasn't been any surprises as far as temperatures go...3PM obs are near 60-mid 60s where more cloud cover lingers, to closer to 70 where there is more sun.

Tonight through Tuesday...

Main story for this evening on through the overnight hours tonight continues to lie increasing precipitation chances...including the potential for thunderstorms. It's not out of the question that mainly southeastern portions of the forecast area could be clipped by activity already early-mid evening with that northeastward moving shortwave disturbance, but models show more of the area with chances later in the evening/overnight with the arrival of the surface cold front moving in from the west. Models in general showing this front not quite all the way to HWY 281 by midnight...and has it clearing the forecast area by 12Z Monday. SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk continues to clip the central and southeastern thirds of the forecast area for this evening/overnight, where models show the best potential remains for more instability (deeper layer shear pretty good area-wide). Models vary on the amount of instability, but at least earlier in the evening, MUCAPE values near 1000 j/kg will be possible...before waning with time tonight. Large hail/damaging winds look to be the primary hazards should any storms become severe.

Late tonight, as the upper level trough axis is pushing east, models showing a closed low developing and sliding into the NM area. This system will drive weather for the region as we get into Monday- Monday night. Expecting there to be a lull in activity during at least part of the morning hours on Monday...as we sit between activity from tonight tapering off/moving east and activity that will be moving in from the SSW. Did trend PoPs back during the morning hours, especially in central/northern areas...some models suggest that could be done even further...something for evening/overnight crew to consider. Through the afternoon hours and more so into evening/overnight...models showing that low pressure system taking a more north-northeast turn, filling/weakening as it crosses the Plains. While at least low precip chances area-wide during the daytime hours Monday, it may end up being a shaper cut off during the evening/overnight hours from NW to SE as precip is more focused along the mid-upper trough axis. At this point the better chances are focused SE of the Tri-Cities...but still some time for that to wiggle a bit in the models. Main area of instability looks to be pushed SE of the area...so chances for any thunder are not overly high. Some uncertainty lingers with the timing of the end of this round of precipitation...forecast continues to have some lingering chances east of HWY 281 Tuesday morning...and differences between models remain...but once precipitation moves out, the rest of Tuesday/Tuesday look to be dry.

Outside of preciptiation chances, Monday sits behind the surface cold front...with gusty northerly winds and cooler highs expected. Gusts for central/NWrn thirds of the forecast area could have gusts around 25 MPH through the day...little lower further SE closer to the front itself. Highs for the look to top out in the low-mid 50s. Tuesday fares a little better with wind (WSW closer to 10-15 MPH) and sky cover (more sun expected)...but highs mainly in the mid 50s continue.

Wednesday on into the weekend...

For much of the area, Wednesday could very well be dry through the day...main question with that would be in western portions as another upper level system inches closer to the region. Models show the potential for another trough axis to impact parts of the forecast area, while digging south into the Desert SW and developing a closed low. Plenty of uncertainties with these chances, as they could linger into Thursday, they could remain focused off to our west...chances remain on the low side, between 20-40 percent. This upper level low and the increasing lift out ahead of it will become a bigger play in our weather as get into the Friday/Saturday time frame. Models showing it being a potent low...bringing (at least at this point) area-wide precipitation chances, but also showing the accompanying dry slot punching in fairly quickly too. Plenty of details to iron in the coming days. High temperatures mid-late week currently remain in the 50s for most.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low clouds are expected to persist through the TAF period with showers and thunderstorms late this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through the area. The best chances for -TSRA at the terminals looks to be between around 06Z and 09Z, so we have a PROB30 group for this timeframe at both TAF sites. Ceilings to start the TAF period will hover around the VFR/MVFR height, becoming consistently MVFR as -SHRA moves in this evening and possibly periodically IFR with SHRA and/or TSRA overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected to linger through the day Monday with -SHRA potentially returning Monday afternoon.

Winds will be mainly southerly at around 8 kts through this evening ahead of the cold front, then northwesterly at 7-10 kts along the front (although gusty and erratic at times near SHRA and TSRA). By around 09Z Monday morning, winds will be northerly and gusting to around 20 kts, increasing to sustained northerly winds at 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts shortly after sunrise through the rest of the TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.


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