textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot on Tuesday with heat index values of 100-105 degrees in southern parts of the area.

- A line of thunderstorms is expected to move northwest to southeast across the area Tuesday night. This could produce damaging wind and isolated damaging hail, mainly in the 8pm to 2am timeframe.

- Thunderstorms redevelop Wednesday evening, and a few of these could become strong to severe as well, particularly over northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

- Cooler and mostly dry on Thursday, then warming up with off/on thunderstorm chances Friday night through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Skies remain mostly clear across the area with only some spotty afternoon cumulus beginning to develop as of 2pm. Temperatures are on-track to top out in the 90s across the entire area this afternoon. Any convection that develops over CO/WY should remain well to our northwest through tonight.

On Tuesday, southerly flow increases as a shortwave approaches the area. This should allow for another day of temperatures in the 90s and even low 100s in southwestern parts of the area. Increasing low-level moisture will also likely result in heat index values in the 100-105 range for portions of northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

By late Tuesday afternoon, scattered convection should develop over the Nebraska panhandle near and ahead of a cold front. Nearly all CAMs develop this into one or more southeasterly-moving lines. This would then reach northwestern portions of the forecast area (Lexington to Ord) by around 8-9pm. Most of the HREF members (except WRF-ARW) favor this convection remaining severe through most of, if not all of the forecast area. As such, SPC has expanded the Slight Risk to cover more of the forecast area. Given the convective mode, wind would be the primary threat, although some severe hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest cores as well. Locally heavy rain could be an issue for areas with saturated soils, but storms should have enough forward speed to avoid a significant flooding concern.

For Wednesday, the passage of the cold front will lead to cooler temperatures for most. The exception will be southeastern portions of the area where temperatures again reach the 90s as the cold front stalls over northern Kansas. Exact details remain somewhat uncertain, and are dependent on how Tuesday night plays out, but scattered storms (some strong to severe) are expected to redevelop Wednesday evening. The highest risk area is near the stalled front in KS and far southern Nebraska, but there is some risk for these to lift a bit further northward as well. Slower storm motions along the stalled boundary could lead to localized heavy rainfall as well.

Thursday will be cooler in the post-frontal airmass. In fact, it could end up being one of the coolest days of the month with high temperatures only in the mid 70s to low 80s. Global ensembles and the NBM linger some low (10-30%) PoPs over southern portions of the area, but most of the area will remain dry.

Upper level ridging returns on Friday into the weekend, pushing temperatures back into the 80s and 90s. A series of weak disturbances traversing the ridge will bring off and on thunderstorm chances to the area (mainly during the overnight hours).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence in VFR conditions (95%+) through the TAF period.

Winds gradually turn more southeasterly through today before settling back to the south tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds increase on Tuesday with gusts over 20kts

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.