textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Much less oppressive heat and humidity expected for the remainder of the week thanks to a cool front the moved through the area yesterday. Conditions remain more seasonable for late July with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- There will be occasional shower and thunderstorm chances through midweek as the area remains on the fringes of a large dome of high pressure centered over the southern High Plains.

- Mainly dry and slightly cooler conditions settle into the region in time for the weekend.

- Longer range ensembles suggest another heat wave may develop around 7-10 days from now.

UPDATE

Issued at 430 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have exited all but our KS counties as of 4AM...and even these areas should be mainly dry by around sunrise. Fortunately this rain came without much fanfare. A few isolated areas received a quick 1.5-2", but recent dry weather and mature crops have kept any hydro concerns at bay.

Outside of a few lingering showers in the south this morning, the brunt of the region will be dry throughout the daytime hours under a mix of sun and clouds. Dew points will remain seasonably high in the lower 70s given modest easterly flow/mixing and trajectories coming from other high "corn sweat" areas...but fortunately the air temperatures should be solid 5-15 degrees cooler than past couple of days. As such, heat indices are forecast to remain elevated, but more tolerable/seasonable in the mid to upper 90s.

The next round of shower and thunderstorm potential will come tonight - and generally behave in a similar pattern to yesterday/last night. Once again...expect scattered to widespread activity to develop during the afternoon hours along the front range of the Rockies within a broad, moist, upslope flow regime...then shift E during the evening and overnight. With the upper ridge being more suppressed, the primary area of afternoon development should also be suppressed a little further S...and with W to NW upper flow, tonight's activity should be centered more from CO into KS. Recent CAM ensembles tend to agree with this, and are generally a bit slower and less organized than yesterday. Thus, PoPs aren't quite as high (only 20-40%) and favor the S half (if not third) of the CWA.

Bit of a "wash, rinse, repeat" situation Wednesday-Wednesday night, though perhaps further N again, thanks to somewhat stronger low level jet nosing into areas N of I-80. Can't rule out a few strong-marginally severe storms...but main concern should be isolated heavy rain as PWATs once again increase up to around 175% of normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 409 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Mid-Week...

For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, overall no notable changes in the forecast. Models show little change in the upper level pattern, with the main upper level ridge axis continuing to run roughly through the High Plains. There remain periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms...mainly during the mid- late evening and overnight hours...as models continue to show the potential for shortwave disturbances riding around the edge of the main ridging and sliding through the area. Precipitation chances Tue evening-night and again Wed evening-night remain generally in the 20-50 percent range...with models then showing the potential for a stronger shortwave disturbance to dig further south, with more widespread 40-60 percent chances Thu- Thu night. Still plenty of details to iron out with the timing/coverage of those chances.

More noteworthy for the mid-week period is models showing a break from the heat from the past few days. Highs Tue-Thu are forecast in the upper 80s-mid 90s...with heat index values more in the 90s-near 100...vs the well above 100 from the past few days.

Friday and on...

The forecast for Friday on into the weekend dries out...but will see if that ultimately ends up panning out that way. The upper level disturbance that moves through Thu-Thu night looks to give the main ridge axis a better push back to the west...leaving our area with more amplified north-northwesterly flow. At this point models aren't showing much in the way of disturbances impacting the area. This shift in the ridging helps keeps temps closer to normal for this time of year...generally forecast to range from the mid 80s to near 90 through this period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Have VFR conditions going for this TAF period...but will be keeping a close eye on the evolution of some patchy lower-level stratus that has developed in the area, currently sitting just south of the terminal areas. If this area expands or drifts north at all...could bring MVFR ceilings along. Also kept this period dry...though there will be the potential for isolated- scattered showers around later this evening and overnight...but at this point models are in generally good agreement keeping the better potential to the south of the terminal areas. A weak surface pattern is keeping winds on the light/variable side, which is expected to continue into the afternoon, eventually turning more east-southeasterly in nature. Light/variable winds return again later tonight-Wed AM.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.