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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon mainly from Dawson County south to Furnas County.
- Near critical to brief critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon mainly along and west of Highway 183.
- Much colder beginning Friday with high temperatures in the single digits to teens.
- Wind chills may get down to around -20 to -25 degrees Friday morning and Saturday morning across portions of the area.
- Snow may impact the area Friday and Saturday although there is high uncertainty in regards to snowfall amounts.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Today through tonight...
A big upper trough is over most of the country with an upper ridge over the West Coast. A surface trough is centered over eastern Colorado and extends into Nebraska and Kansas. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are out of the south to southwest at around 10 mph with gusts up to around 20-25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon may get down to around 20% to 25% from Dawson County south to Furnas County. This may create near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across this area. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to range from the upper 38s across far northeast portions of the forecast area to the low to mid 50s across western and southern portions of the forecast area. A northwest wind shift with increased winds is expected to move into area area this evening into tonight. Enhanced upper lift may also accompany this wind shift. This may result in brief, light snow showers across portions of the area this evening. Winds will become westerly and weaken later in the night with low temperatures in the teens and 20s.
Wednesday through Wednesday night...
Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will initially increase out of the southwest to west on Wednesday at 15 to 30 mph sustained with gusts possibly up to 25 to 45 mph. Winds will then briefly increase out of the northwest then will weaken by the evening out of the north. Humidity values generally along and west of Highway 183 Wednesday afternoon will get down to around 20% to 25%. This may lead to near critical to critical fire weather conditions. High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to warm up into the 40s and 50s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will generally range from around 10 to 19 degrees with light and variable winds.
Thursday through Saturday night...
A cold front with northerly winds will begin pushing into the area on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to mainly be in the 30s. The cold front will continue pushing through the area Thursday night with temperatures dropping into the positive to negative single digits. Wind chills of around -10 to near -25 degrees will be possible Thursday night into Friday morning. The cold air will continue to impact the area with high temperatures on Friday ranging only from the single digits to teens. Winds will become more southerly Friday night with low temperatures in the negative single digits. Wind chills Friday night will mostly be in the negative teens and -20 to near -25 degrees in some spots. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on high temperatures for Saturday depending on the location of the surface high. At this time, expecting highs to be around 10 to 17 degrees on Saturday. There is some uncertainty in regards to low temperatures Saturday night, but at this time, expecting lows to be in the negative single digits. A few isolated locations could have wind chills as low as -20 Saturday night but mostly expect wind chills in the negative teens. A storm system may impact the area with snow Friday and Saturday although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to snowfall amounts.
Sunday through Monday night...
Generally expect temperatures to increase Sunday and Monday although there remains quite a bit of uncertainty. This same trend is expected for low temperatures Sunday night and Monday night. At this time, expecting Sunday and Monday to be dry.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 529 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Mainly VFR conditions through the period with a small shot for some light snow and MVFR CIGS from roughly 21/03Z-21/07Z.
Expect CIGS to lower this evening as a cold front approaches from the north. Expect winds to gradually shift and increase out of the NNW over the next few hours, with gusts to 20 KTS+ behind this front along with a small chance for a light snow shower/flurry along with CIGS as low as 2KFT. Skies will then eventually clear during the overnight hours, with winds increasing substantially out of the WNW on Wednesday as a secondary front, with a strong push of winds, makes its way across the area during the afternoon hours. Little cloud cover and no shower activity is expected with this front locally, but winds could gust to 30 KT+ during the afternoon hours.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None. KS...None.
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