textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances continue to increase late this afternoon, as activity pushes northeast out of the KS/CO border area. There will be the potential for this activity to be strong to severe...with damaging winds the main threat, though large hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

- Expecting the daytime hours on Wednesday to be dry. Late afternoon-early evening storm chances look to focus to our SE. Late in the evening and overnight will bring the potential for a line of storms to develop near I-80 along an increasing low- level jet. Large hail would be the primary threat with this activity.

- Forecast dries back out for Thursday and Friday, with periodic upper level disturbances bringing additional storm chances this weekend on into the start of the new week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Currently through tonight...

Outside of a few showers/weak storms that work east across portions of south central Nebraska during the mid-late morning hours...been a pretty quiet day. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show southwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains...set up between broader troughing over the western CONUS and high pressure over the Gulf Coast/SErn coasts. The day started out with quite a bit of low level stratus and some drizzle...and while it has taken its sweet time shifting north/diminishing, more of the area is seeing sun, helping temps climb. Took a while for those more breezy southerly winds to spread north across the forecast area, started the day with many locations having more light/variable winds...which were also at least briefly turned to the northwest this morning from outflow from the activity that pushed east across NE. Finally have those gusty southerly winds across the area, generally around 20-25 MPH. The stratus really did a number on temperatures, mainly across south central NE...and while there will be some late day recovery with more sun, much of that area will fall at least a bit short of expectations. The high dewpoints is still making for sticky conditions...with widespread readings in the low 70s.

For the rest of this afternoon on into tonight...the main concern will be with thunderstorms working their way east across the area. Activity is already ongoing over the Central/Srn High Plains, sparked off by the arrival of an upper level shortwave disturbance embedded in that larger scale SWrly flow. With that area of 70s dewpoints nosing into much of the area, no shortage of instability...with the SPC Meso page showing MLCAPE values around 3000-4000j/kg in place CWA-wide here at mid-afternoon. Still some capping to overcome, but that should wane with time as that disturbance approaches from the SW. Models have remained consistent showing activity working its way into SWrn portions of the forecast area in the next few hours...pushing east through the early-mid evening hours. Basically the entire CWA is included in the Day 1 Enhanced Risk area...driven primarily by the threat for wind gusts near 70 MPH. Large hail up around golf ball size is also a possibility...and as this activity moves into better low level moisture further east, there is a threat for isolated tornadoes as well. Some of the hi-res models show activity from N-S through the CWA potentially being broken up a bit, with a more southern section closer to/south of HWY 6 into KS, then another more north of I- 80...we'll see if it actually pans out that way.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Models currently showing most of/if not all activity being off to the east of the forecast area by sunrise Wednesday...with the daytime hours currently forecast to be dry. In the upper levels, models are showing that larger scale troughing working its with further east with time further into the Rockies...with another embedded shortwave disturbance swinging into the Dakotas. This will help push a surface frontal boundary east through the forecast area...ushering in more northwesterly winds. This helps give that better low-level moisture a push east, with lower dewpoints in the 40s-50s currently forecast. Highs are forecast to reach into the mid 80s to low 90s...which results in some low relative humidities through the afternoon, with teens-20s forecast. With the recent rains across the area, have had a chance to further green up...so while some western areas flirt with near critical to critical RH/winds, not anticipating a fire headline at this time. During the late afternoon and early-mid evening hours...that frontal boundary provides focus for another round of thunderstorm development...but at this time that activity is expected to off to our ESE. Our main concern comes later in the evening and overnight...where models have been fairly consistent showing the potential for an arc of likely elevated hailers developing along the nose of a southerly low-level jet. Some models showing the jet potentially around 50kts, others are not quite as strong. Agreement isn't too bad as far as location goes...mainly a south central NE issue west of HWY 183, and generally around or just north of I-80. The SPC Day 2 Slight Risk area has a small westward back into the area to account for this potential.

Thursday on into early next week...

As we get into the latter portion of the week and start of the new week...forecast does have a longer dry period for Thursday and Friday. Models showing generally zonal flow returning to the upper levels...but also show a lack of notable disturbances moving through. That changes as we get into the weekend-early next week, with periodic disturbances returning to the region. As far as temperatures go, have a little bit of a roller coaster forecast...with highs back in the mid 80s-90s by Saturday, dropping back into the low-mid 70s for Sun-Mon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern is in the first 6hrs of the period, as a cluster of storms continues to work its way northeast out of northwestern KS. Looking like the potential for stronger storms falls in the 00-04Z time frame...activity then becoming more scattered in nature. Confidence in activity past roughly 09Z is low enough that the mention was kept out of both terminals. With these storms, there will be the potential for stronger gusts out of variable directions. Models continue to show the potential for LLWS, but did back off a bit on the length of time. Forecast looks to remain dry from the early morning on through the daytime hours on Thursday.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.