textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers (maybe a weak thunderstorm in KS?), along with low clouds and possibly light drizzle/light fog will reign over much our forecast area tonight into Friday morning.

- Friday brings one last day of seasonably-cool highs only in the 70s before Saturday serves as the "transition day" with highs mainly 80s. - Upper level pattern shift will bring an abrupt arrival of summer heat/humidity Sunday and beyond with highs at least into low-mid 90s...likely serving as a "shock to our systems" in the wake of the ongoing/prolonged cooler stretch.

- Along with the heat, moisture surging northward will bring dewpoint values up well into the 60s to even low 70s (especially in our eastern counties). This combo of heat/humidity will drive heat index values to as high as 100-105 especially Sunday/Monday...at least approaching official Heat Advisory criteria.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

For the rest of the day and overnight, scattered off and on showers with very isolated thunder will be present through the evening hours, tapering off overnight and towards Friday morning. The latest guidance, including high-res ensemble guidance keeps the bulk of any additional rainfall to the south and east of the area. There is a potential that Rooks county could be clipped by some stronger activity that slides southeast out of western Nebraska and Kansas and could bring additional water concerns if that does occur, but confidence is not high on that solution.

The upper level pattern shifts Friday as an upper low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This causes the Central Plains to be under southwesterly upper level flow with a low developing in the lee of the Rockies. This will cause moist southerly return flow to the region. The tightening gradient will keep winds breezy at times, stronger than we've seen for a few days. Likewise, temperatures will be much warmer, with highs quickly returning to the upper 80s and low 90s for Saturday and then 90s will be widespread on Sunday and Monday.

Model solutions indicate that 70+ dewpoints will surge back north. The highest dewpoint values will be across eastern Nebraska and into Iowa/Missouri, etc. That being said, this will be quite a shock to the system after the cooler past week has been. Heat index values exceeding 100 degrees are possible especially along and east of Highway 81. Contrastingly, the dryline will set up across western Kansas and the moisture gradient will be visible where the drier air is able to mix out and temps surge even higher...primarily western portions of north central Kansas.

As June ends and July begins next week, temperatures look to stay in the 90s while the trough persists out west with ridging to the east of the Plains. Disturbances ejecting out of the upper low in the west could cause a few sporadic precipitation chances to impact the area next week, confidence in any details is low.

There is an indication that the pattern will break down towards the end of the work week and holiday weekend begins which could allow for slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances over the holiday weekend. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 722 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including precip potential and winds): By far the main issue/challenge will be to what extent ceilings (and possibly visibility to a lesser/briefer extent) drop below VFR during the period. Confidence is fairly high that at least 10-12 hours of the period will feature at least MVFR ceiling (possibly lower?) and also perhaps at least a few hours of MVFR visibility in light fog/possibly even light drizzle. Aside from any possible light drizzle, chances for any brief/steadier showers overnight appear quite minimal...not high enough for TAF inclusion. Wind-wise, no big concerns to speak of with sustained speeds almost entirely at-or-below 11KT and any gusts mainly under 17KT...as direction gradually shifts from east- northeasterly tonight, to southeasterly Friday afternoon.

- Ceiling/visibility details: As has been the case the last few days, especially the ceiling forecast remains of lower confidence. However, unlike the last few days, this TAF period likely features considerably greater potential for several hours of sub-VFR ceiling (along with perhaps at least a few hours of sub-VFR visibility). Right out of the gate this evening, high-end MVFR clouds are flirting with KEAR, but expect this to be brief/unsustained. Much higher chances for MVFR arrive around 08-09Z...possibly also accompanied by MVFR visibility in light fog/possible drizzle especially at KEAR. Some guidance suggests that ceiling could even drop to IFR/LIFR levels at least intermittently especially 09-16Z, but with "mixed signals" on ceiling dropping this low have only "hinted" at IFR with scattered groups. Ceiling category uncertainty actually lingers right on through Friday afternoon, as although TAFs currently call for a return to VFR around 20Z with lower clouds scattering out, some guidance holds onto a high-end MVFR ceiling right on through 00Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.