textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs will range from the upper 80s to as warm as 105 degrees (across our southernmost Kansas counties) today through Tuesday afternoon. Heat index values will range from the mid to upper 90s north of I-80, and from near 100 to 105 degrees across north central Kansas.

- Limited shower/thunderstorm activity (less than a 20 percent chance) from time to time through midday Wednesday...with a much more unsettled pattern returning Wednesday evening through at least next weekend.

- Seasonably cool temperatures (70s/80s) will accompany the more unsettled weather pattern Thursday through Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

An area of stratus can be seen on satellite early this morning developing across central Nebraska. Models have this area of stratus expanding a bit further south towards daybreak... limiting its coverage and the potential for some light fog to areas generally north of I-80.

For this afternoon...expect another afternoon with hazy sunshine as elevated smoke from western wildfires continues to persist across the local area. As was done yesterday, nudged down afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees from their true potential due to this haze, and as a result, opted against a heat advisory for our southern most counties later today. For tonight, there will be a low end chance for a few showers/weak thunderstorms as both the EC/GFS try to bring a weak disturbance across our Kansas counties...albeit most mesoscale models remain dry - decreasing confidence in significant coverage.

Continued warm and mainly dry weather (with very small daily thunderstorm chances) will then persist into Wednesday, with a much more active weather pattern returning by Wednesday evening as a frontal boundary stalls across the local area and a more zonal to southwesterly flow pattern aloft with multiple embedded disturbances is realized through the remainder of the extended periods.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Following the storms this morning to early afternoon across central Nebraska, most of the area should remain dry until at least Monday evening (next best widespread storm chances; 20%-30%). Sporadic and isolated thunderstorm activity rolling in and out of the area, however, can't be completely ruled out within a few more isolated locations tonight or Sunday. Due to low run to run model consistency, our confidence falls on the lower end of the spectrum in regards to determining exactly where and when storms may emerge. Given general weak forcing and limited shear (<40kts), the potential for widespread convection appears unlikely at this time. In terms of tonight, the best potential for any isolated storms would fall mainly across north central Kansas or far southern Nebraska where the outflow boundary from this morning's storms resides. Even then, the confidence remains low (<20% for any given location).

The other factor that looks probable to reemerge again tonight would be the potential for fog (60% chance). As with the last two nights, calming winds with high surface relative humidity values (temperatures cooling near their dewpoints) may be just strong enough to help with the production of some surface condensation (fog). Given the higher dewpoints towards the north, the better potential for fog formation should fall north of I-80. The HRRR and other HREF members have additionally seemed to target central to north central Nebraska for fog development tonight (identified by 60% of the HREF members).

The main story for Sunday will be the heat. Steady southerly warm air advecting winds paired with mostly sunny skies will work in tandem to help temperatures warm to their likely warmest point of the week. Highs for the day will be expected to span the 90s across a majority of south central Nebraska. A few locations across the far southern row of counties in Nebraska may even reach the triple digits (20-40% chances). Even warmer temperatures south of the state line will be possible to set up as highs spread the upper 90s to up to 105 degrees across north central Kansas (20-40% chance for highs to reach 105 degrees). Heat index values for a majority of the area should range between 100-105 degrees. Although higher amounts may be possible across isolated north central Kansas locations, a few uncertainties hinders our confidence to a degree.

The decision to hold off on the issuance of a heat advisory was well discussed this afternoon between neighboring offices. A few questions have been raised about if the elevated wildfire smoke may limit the solar flux as well as if the marginal dewpoints (50s to low 60s) would be high enough to raise heat indices above 105 degrees. The higher humidity values (mid 60s to low 70s) are forecast to linger across central Nebraska locations, or areas where temperatures are not likely to surpass the mid 90s. Given the time of year and the uncertainties, the issuance of a heat advisory was held off this forecast cycle.

Looking ahead at monday, the next best chance for scattered thunderstorms returns for primarily the northern half of the area during the evening to overnight hours. At the surface, a weak low emerging out from the Rockies may help steer another surface boundary down into southern Nebraska (may provide some weak convergence based assent). Given the warm (90s to low 100s highs), moist (mid 60s to mid 70s dewpoints) and unstable airmass (MUCAPE up to 3,000-5,000J/km), any storms that develops may have a shot at becoming strong to severe. The only limiting factor would be from the marginal shear (20-35kts). The SPC keeps most areas north of I-80 included in a marginal severe weather outlook.

In terms of the pattern aloft, the region falls inbetween broad ridging to the west and broad troughing to the east. This leaves the area underneath northwest flow. Long-range forecast models continue to hone in on a more zonal (less amplified) pattern transitioning to a to slight ridging (higher pressure) pattern near the middle of next week for the Central U.S. A few other notable trends that exist in the long-range forecast includes a slightly wetter and cooler period near the midle-to-end of the week. Highs in the forecast dip a few degrees each day from Tuesday to Friday with highs likely to return back to the 70s (70-90% chance). Daily afternoon to evening thunderstorm chances additionally lie between Wednesday and Friday. This wetter pattern will come as a few upper-level waves may try to break out of a Western U.S. trough.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dense patchy fog has developed across portions of the area, with visibilities down below 1/2 mile possible. Visibilities should improve between 13-14Z, as temperatures increase.

Winds this morning will be light and rotate clockwise through the morning hours, becoming E by the afternoon. A few low-level clouds (high MVFR level) are possible this morning, before a midlevel cloud deck builds in this afternoon/evening.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.