textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning and is now in effect starting at 9 PM this evening.

- A Red Flag Warning is now in effect Friday afternoon for seven of our far western-southwestern counties (see separate Fire Weather section below for more details.

- Snow showers may impact (15% to near 60% chance) mainly the northeastern 2/3rds of our forecast area tonight through Friday night. The strong winds with the snow will likely result in some visibility reductions.

- Colder temperatures plus winds may create wind chills around 0 to - 20 degrees Friday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 915 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Within the last several minutes have "upgraded" the previous Fire Weather Watch for Friday afternoon to a Red Flag Warning (for seven of our western-southwestern most counties in our forecast area). See separate Fire Weather Section below for more details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Today through tonight...

An upper trough is over the East Coast with another upper trough over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. An upper ridge is over the West Coast. A surface trough is across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas which is in advance of the upper trough to the north. This surface trough marks the transition of winds from the southwest to the northwest. Temperatures are currently in the 50s and 60s. The upper trough to the north will move over the area this evening into tonight with winds increasing out of the northwest. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning and is now in effect beginning at 9 PM this evening for most of the area along and west of Highway 281 in Nebraska and for Rooks and Phillips Counties in north central Kansas. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s to low 30s with wind chills down to near 0 to the teens. As upper lift increases over the area this evening into tonight, light rain showers/light snow showers may develop (15% to 20% chance)and move southward. No snow accumulation is expected.

Friday through Friday night...

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern 2/3rds of the country on Friday with gusty, northwest winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Sustained winds during the afternoon will be around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40 to 60 mph. A High Wind Warning will continue to be in effect Friday for most of the area along and west of Highway 281 in Nebraska and for Rooks and Phillips Counties in north central Kansas. These winds will also create fire weather concerns. See Fire Weather Discussion below. Light snow showers will be possible (15% to near 60% chance) Friday primarily affecting locations to the northeast of the Tri- Cities. These snow showers combined with the strong winds will likely (70%-80% chance) create some visibility reductions. Although most places will see little (a trace) or no snow accumulation, a few isolated areas may see accumulations up to a half inch. High temperatures on Friday will range from the low 30s to low 40s but the winds will result in wind chills in the teens to 20s in the afternoon. Low temperatures Friday night will drop into the single digits to teens. Winds Friday night will decrease from the daytime but will be around 15 to 25 mph sustained with gusts up to 30+ mph. These winds will result in wind chills of around 0 degrees down to near -20 degrees Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday night...

A surface high will be in place across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday. High temperatures are only expected to be in the mid teens to mid 20s. Winds will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to around 30 mph. These winds will result in wind chills near 0 to around 10 degrees Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to drop Saturday night with lows near zero to near 10 degrees. Winds Saturday night are expected to become southwesterly around 5 to 10 mph which will result in wind chills of around 0 to around -10 degrees. Temperatures are generally expected to warm up on Sunday although there is some uncertainty to the amount of warming due to another cold front moving into the area. Right now the forecast is for highs to be in the 40s and low 50s but it may be colder depending on the timing of the front. Low temperatures in the single digits to teens are expected Sunday night with wind chills of around -10 to 5 degrees.

Monday through Wednesday...

A broad upper trough will be over most of the country on Monday with a surface high across Nebraska and Kansas. High temperatures on Monday are only expected to be in the 20s and 30s with mostly northwesterly winds. A warm up is expected on Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Another cold front may move into the area on Wednesday with highs in the 30s and 40s. The extended forecast remains to be dry so far.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 634 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Although at least brief/sporadic MVFR conditions (both ceiling and perhaps visibility due to snow showers) could occur mainly during the latter half of the period Friday, by far the main issue will be strong north-northwest winds...both at the surface and slightly aloft (promoting low level wind shear/LLWS issues).

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation: High confidence in VFR through most all of these first 12-15 hours. However, there will be a brief window this evening (mainly 03-05Z) when a low-end VFR/perhaps MVFR ceiling will pass through, possibly accompanied by sprinkles/light rain. Getting beyond these first 15 hours, anytime after roughly 15Z and lasting through Friday afternoon there will likely be a fairly persistent ceiling that should prevail low-end VFR (3-4K ft.)...but could occasionally dip into MVFR range (mainly 2-3K ft.). In addition, although still a bit of a "wild card"/uncertainty, there is potential for isolated/scattered snow showers to "streak" across the general area from northwest- to-southeast mainly 18-00Z (but perhaps starting a bit sooner). Should these materialize, at least brief bursts of low visibility (at least MVFR) are likely, but any actual snow accumulation should be under 1 inch. Given what should be fairly limited duration of any snow showers, have opted to introduce this potential with PROB30 groups at this time.

- Winds: - Surface winds: The very-lightest winds of the period are right away these first few hours this evening (only around 10KT from the northwest). However, a considerable uptick in north-northwest winds will occur 03-05Z as an initial "frontal surge" arrives from the north. During this time, at least brief gusts up to around 45KT are likely. Once this initial surge fades, the remainder of the night and into the first part of the day should feature sustained speeds mainly 20-25KT/gusts 25-30KT. However, another uptick will commence by mid-late morning, with much of the remainder of the period featuring moderately-strong sustained speeds around 30KT/gusts around 40KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): The first LLWS chance that meets TAF-inclusion-criteria will focus 02-04Z as an intense surge of north-northwest winds up to around 50KT arrives within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL, which despite increasing surface winds will result in a solid 30-35KT of shear magnitude above the surface.

Following a brief lull in meeting LLWS TAF criteria, another LLWS group runs 06-15Z as continued speeds 45-50KT between 1-2K ft. AGL will create persistently 30+KT of shear magnitude between the surface and this level (even despite increasing surface winds). Finally, surface winds will increase enough by/after 15Z to weaken any LLWS below TAF criteria.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 615 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY-SUNDAY:

- Friday: Although relative humidity will be on the marginal side compared to our "normal" critical fire weather criteria (only dropping as low as 25-30 percent), we have deemed these RH values "close enough"...when factoring in the strong northwest sustained at least 30-35 MPH/gusting 45-60 MPH...to justify upgrading the previous Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for seven of the far western/southwestern counties in our forecast area. Elsewhere in our forecast area, the Friday fire weather threat is "non-zero", but we cannot justify issuing any Warnings for counties with minimum RH at-or-above 30 percent (those counties are also more likely to have at least spotty/passing snow showers).

- Saturday: Fire weather concerns continue for Saturday with northwest winds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to around 30 mph. Minimum humidity values of around 20-25 percent are expected from Dawson County southward towards Furnas and Harlan Counties in Nebraska and for most of north central Kansas. The lowest humidity values will be in western portions of Dawson, Gosper, and Furnas Counties. Like Friday, a limiting factor on fire weather potential for Saturday will be cold high temperatures only in the teens and 20s.

- Sunday: Fire weather concerns decrease a bit for Sunday, but elevated to near critical conditions will still be possible. Minimum humidity values will be around 25%-30% across those same far western/southwestern counties, with northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST Friday for NEZ039-040-046-047- 060>062-072>075-082>084. Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Friday for NEZ060-072- 073-082-083. KS...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST Friday for KSZ005-017. Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Friday for KSZ005-017.