textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of patchy dense fog possible after midnight tonight. The focus of this fog should be across our south central Nebraska counties.

- The first significant rainfall event since late October will spread north across the local area this evening/overnight. Most areas will see some rainfall, but the focus will be south of I-80 with the highest totals anticipated across north central Kansas.

- Fantastic late fall weather anticipated for this weekend with highs in the 60s, light winds, and mostly sunny skies (especially Saturday).

- The next system will bring a chance of precip back to the area Sunday evening through Monday, with the beginning of a prolonged period of below normal temperatures starting Thanksgiving eve.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Another cloudy, cool day across much of the local area where persistent low level cloud cover has helped keep temperatures down several degrees from the previous forecast. While the extent of the remaining low level cloud cover is being partially obscured by high level clouds approaching from the southwest, the edges of what can be seen on satellite are steadily eroding, which should allow most areas to warm a few more degrees. Once the sun angle goes down, however, expect this low level stratus to once again expand in coverage across the local area with some patchy dense fog becoming possible once again late in the night. Latest HRRR is once again indicating the potential for some dense fog across the local area...primarily focused across our Nebraska counties...and added similar wording to the afternoon HWO.

For tonight...already seeing some upper level cloud cover spreading across the local area ahead of the main upper level low across the southern Rockies. Expect this low to lift northeast over the next 12-24 hours, gradually spreading precipitation chances across the local area. While the focus of this system has slipped just a bit south from what models were advertising yesterday, much of the local area will likely get some measurable rainfall over the next 24 hours, with the focus remaining across north central Kansas. Further north towards I-80, expect a tight gradient in precipitation chances, with precip totals more likely in the 0.1-0.25 inch range near the Interstate...to over an inch across our Kansas counties. If this materializes as expected, this will be the most significant rainfall in almost a month across much of the area!

In addition to the cloud cover, rain, and potential fog for Friday, expect a cooler afternoon with high temperatures in the lower to mid-40s for most. This cool down will be short lived, however, as heights aloft rise over the weekend and mostly sunny skies return, allowing for temperatures to climb back above normal...making for a very nice late fall weekend.

Late in the weekend, expect the next upper level low coming out of the southwest to start spreading some cloud cover across the area Sunday afternoon, with another chance for some light rainfall returning Sunday night through Monday. If anything, this system has continued to track just a bit further north, meaning while nearly all of the area will see some rainfall, the most favored areas will be across our south and east.

After this next system exits the area Monday, expect an overall pattern change with the northern jet dominating and a northwesterly cool (and occasionally unsettled) pattern setting up across the plains for potentially an extended period of time. Still not a sure thing, but a good number of ensemble members are hinting at the potential for some snowfall as early as Thanksgiving day, but more likely later over next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry air on steady NErly low level winds has kept CIGs and VSBYs from lowering as much as previously expected...and appears recent HRRR and RAP runs are finally catching on. Still think most of the next 6 hours will have IFR CIGS and VFR to MVFR VSBYs, though the edge of the IFR stratus will likely settle very near both terminals. This is evidenced by GRI going back and forth between SCT and BKN 800ft past few hours. The biggest trend in recent runs is for the dry air to win out sooner on Friday, such that primarily VFR conditions could be the primary category by as soon as 14-15Z. Have thus leaned more on TEMPO groups for the lower CIGs the highlight the trend against prevailing. The dry air is also going to make it more difficult for the rain showers to make it this far N, so have dropped any inclusion of -RA (generally in the 12-18Z time frame) back to PROB30s for both sites. Winds will be out of the NNE to NNW at around 7-11kt rest of tonight and through Friday.

Should see gradually decreasing clouds and light winds Fri evening. An increasingly Wrly component to sfc winds should preclude significant fog concerns Fri night, but something to monitor in later updates.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.