textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Enhanced risk of severe weather (level 3 of 5) during the evening and overnight hours today and again Sunday. Organized damaging wind, very large hail, and tornadoes are possible.

- Dangerous fire weather conditions are becoming an increasing concern for Sunday afternoon along and behind a surging dry line. Areas along and south of the state line have been placed under a Fire Weather Watch.

- Monday's severe weather potential is highly uncertain for our local area, as latest trends are shifting the main threat corridor along and ahead of a front a bit further E.

- Relatively quiet remainder of the forecast.

UPDATE

Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 1 AM. Several supercells have developed along the warm front along and north of I-80. Other than the increased coverage of supercells early this evening, the convective forecast is unfolding as expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Short discussion here as we transition to severe weather ops.

Two main convective regimes for the short term: 1) isolated supercells along a retreating warm front over mainly south central Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. All modes of severe will be possible given potent combination of instability and shear. Already seeing signs of this along I-80 corridor.

2) larger complex of storms is forecast to move in from the W later this evening. This activity would have an organized with threat with it, as well as potential for QLCS tornadoes. This is concerning considering the late time of day and difficult to spot them. Could also see some large hail, but would be a secondary threat. Can't rule out a few swaths of wind driven hail. Isolated gusts up to 80 MPH will be possible in the strongest cores. This batch favors south central Nebraska more than Kansas, but KS zones by no means in the clear.

Severe threat should end by around 09Z.

Focus then turns to Sunday's severe weather and fire weather potential. Will all depend on where the dry line sets up, but trends have been to shift this further E and bring more of the dry surge and fire weather into play. Will need to seem how things settle from today...but anywhere along and ahead of the dry line could see significant severe weather, including intense supercells with very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat looks to be along and E/NE of the Hwy 81 corridor. Late afternoon and early evening is the main time frame of concern for dry line storms. Another batch of severe storms with mainly a large hail and wind threat could move in from the NW along the primary cold front late Sunday evening and into the overnight.

Fire weather discussion will be included below shortly.

Exactly how things unfold Sunday will determine frontal location for Monday. As mentioned above, this is trending further E/SE such that most of out area could be on the cool side of the front by midday. In fact, far N/NW zones could struggle to get out of the 50s while far S/SE zones push 90F. A strong spring front, indeed, that is bound to spark off widespread severe weather...just a question of if it's here or just E/SE.

Not much time spent in the extended periods as it appears fairly quiet.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Severe thunderstorms are near both terminals to start the 00Z forecast period. Storm motion has been near-stationary, so will continue with PROB30 mentions for now. Eventually storms will move over each terminal by the end of the evening, but there is increasing uncertainty in their severity beyond 02-03Z. Large hail and damaging winds are possible with any storm. Heavy rain from storms will also reduce visibility to at least IFR levels at times. Chances for thunderstorms diminish overnight. MVFR ceilings could develop late tonight into Sunday morning. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain breezy through the forecast period with easterly direction through tonight turning to southerly by Sunday afternoon. There are low chances for thunderstorms developing mid to late Sunday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Dangerous fire weather conditions are possible along and south of the Nebraska-Kansas state line Sunday afternoon and evening. This roughly includes areas along and between Highways 183 and 281, and along and south of Highway 136. Winds will turn from southeast to south Sunday morning and increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon. Relative humidity is forecast to fall as low as 10 to 15 percent. Near critical fire weather conditions could extend north along and to the east of the Highway 281 corridor, where winds will be similar but humidity slightly higher.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NEZ083>085. KS...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.