textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated light showers will be possible this evening for our far northern CWA (mainly Valley, Greeley, and northern Nance), with more scattered rain arriving near the dawn hours on WED primarily east of HWY 183.

- More widespread rain chances arrive Wednesday night and are expected to take us into Saturday. A marginal flash flood risk is in place for Thursday.

- Wednesday and Friday will be breezier, with gusts of 25 - 30 mph possible.

- Highs Wednesday through Friday will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Temperatures this weekend continue to uptrend, with highs expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s.

Friday and Beyond

Latest 12z EPS and GEFS guidance suggest that sometime early Friday morning the first stationary jet maximum will get pulled off to the east by the south-central CONUS ridge, while the next jet in the wave train sets back up over NE. As this next mid- level wave arrives and gradually passes, our on-and-off precip chances will continue through Saturday. Friday afternoon currently looks best for some thunder to mix in with rain as the 12z RRFS and 12z GFS both try to develop a small bit of MLCAPE over our area Friday afternoon in association with the trough aloft. Aside from precip, surface winds will likely spike again during the daylight hours on Friday with gusts across the CWA able to reach 25 - 30 mph once more.

While trends will continue to be monitored, models have remained consistent that our precip-dominated pattern will end around Saturday morning, giving way to a dry but relatively warmer weekend. As a potential worst-case scenario through the event, 13z NBM 95th percentile cumulative rainfall totals by Saturday morning sit right around 2.5 - 3.25 inches. Projected temperatures for this weekend have continued to uptrend rather substantially, with latest indications of widespread upper 70s to even mid 80s for our KS counties. Still, confidence remains that heat indices will not be a concern.

Finally, while a ways out still, let's keep an eye on next Monday night into Tuesday for a potential return to organized thunderstorms. A more classic longwave trough may arrive in the CONUS late next Monday based on the latest GEFS and EPS alike, which may allow for a more seasonal thunderstorm setup. Trends will be monitored.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR-LIFR conditions possible after midnight, with IFR conditions lingering into the early afternoon hours on Wednesday. Ceilings are currently VFR and look to remain VFR through midnight. After midnight, IFR ceilings move in from the northeast, likely impacting KGRI first then KEAR. During the early morning hours, scattered showers are likely to develop in the area, and linger through the late morning hours. In/around these showers, ceilings may lower to LIFR. There is some guidance supporting more widespread/prevailing LIFR, but confidence is too low to include a prevailing group at this time. For now have indicated this shower/LIFR potential with a PROB30 group. IFR ceilings gradually lift out of the area late Wednesday morning-Wednesday afternoon though it could linger longer than currently depicted. Once IFR ceilings lift out of the area, VFR conditions are expected through the end of the TAF period.

East-southeast winds shift to the southeast overnight, with sustained winds around 10-15kts. After sunrise, winds increase further with sustained winds around 15kts and gusts of 20-25kts during the afternoon hours, strongest at KEAR.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.