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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- A High Wind Warning is in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM Wednesday along and north of a line from Sherman County to Polk County.

- There is around a 10% chance of light rain and/or sprinkles this evening.

- Highly variable temperatures are expected. The coldest temperatures will be this weekend with warming conditions beginning Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Today through tonight...

A broad upper trough is over the eastern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the country with upper ridging over California extending to southwest Texas. A shortwave trough embedded within the upper trough is moving over the northern Plains/upper Midwest with an associated surface low extending southward towards west Texas and eastern New Mexico. The surface low has resulted in southwest to west winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. This has also resulted in a warm up across the area with high temperatures today expected to be in the 50s and 60s. A cold front will move into the area this evening into tonight as the shortwave moves southeastward. This front will bring gusty northwest winds across the area this evening and tonight. Sustained winds of 20 to 40 MPH are expected with gusts of 30 to 60 MPH. A High Wind Warning is in effect along and north of a line from Sherman to Polk County from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM Wednesday. Some sprinkles or light rain showers may occur this evening (around a 10% chance) as the front moves into the area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be on the backside of the upper trough on Wednesday. Winds will initially be gusty out of the northwest then will weaken and switch to the south during the evening. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s on Wednesday. Some models are indicating an increase in upper lift across portions of northeast and east Nebraska Wednesday evening and night with precipitation developing into central and south central Nebraska (mainly for locations along and north and east of the Tri-Cities). The NAM12 does not indicate this increase in upper lift; therefore, is not showing any precipitation in central or eastern Nebraska. The GFS does indicate the increase in upper lift and is showing precipitation Wednesday evening and night across the above mentioned locations. If this precipitation develops and moves across portions of the area, some of it may be in the form of snow due to overnight temperatures Wednesday night cooling into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Any snow accumulations are expected to be light.

Thursday and Thursday night...

The previously mentioned upper trough is expected to move further east on Thursday, and a surface trough will move into Nebraska and Kansas from the west. This surface trough is expected to create a large temperature gradient across Nebraska and Kansas. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in high temperatures on Thursday due to the placement of this gradient. At this time, expect highs on Thursday to range from the upper 40s in the northeastern part of the forecast area to the upper 60s in the southwest. Winds on Thursday will switch to the west (in the warm sector) then to the north later in the day/evening as a cold front begins to move into the area. Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the low 20s in the north to the mid 30s in the south.

Friday through Monday...

A surface high will be across the area on Friday with northerly winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures behind the cold front on Friday are expected to range from the low 30s to mid 40s. Winds will switch to the east and southeast Friday night with temperatures dropping to around 11 degrees to the low/mid 20s. Another cold front is expected to push into the area on Saturday with high temperatures only in the low 20s to low 40s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the single digits to low teens. High temperatures on Sunday will be similar to those on Saturday. Low temperatures Sunday night are expected to be in the teens and low 20s. A warm up is in store for Monday with the surface high moving further east. High temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the low 40s to low/mid 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours although there is a slight chance of MVFR ceilings for KGRI around 15z. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest to west this afternoon then winds will decrease slightly around 00z out of the west. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest around/by 03z with gusts above 30 knots expected. Winds will decrease by 15z out of the northwest. Wind shear is possible this afternoon but is more likely around 00z through 15z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for NEZ039>041-046>049. KS...None.


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