textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- One more seasonably mild/pleasant day on Thursday, with areas of dense fog possible in the morning.

- Heat and humidity build back into the region over the weekend. Expect high temperatures in the 90s each day and peak heat indices may reach the lower triple digits, at times, particularly over north central Kansas.

- Pattern trends somewhat cooler and more active for the middle to later portions of next week. Until then, mainly dry conditions are expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 941 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- A FEW FORECAST COMMENTS/UPDATES REGARDING THE OVERNIGHT/THURS AM HOURS:

- 1) Fog and possible dense fog concerns Thursday AM: Fog is a notoriously fickle thing to forecast (often becoming worse when you don't expect it to be, and vice versa). For late tonight into Thursday morning, it appears we have one of those not-clear-cut situations. While "raw" visibility projections from often-fairly-reliable higher-res models such as HRRR/RAP are really "screaming" fairly widespread dense fog (visibility 1/4 mile or less) across the majority of our area especially 3-9 AM, an analysis of current satellite cloud trends (some low stratus is around), along with model projections that this low stratus could expand BEFORE fog would really have a chance to become established...gives this forecaster at least some pause into really "buying into" the truly widespread dense fog scenario. In other words, could it end up being more of a lighter fog situation (visibility mainly above 1/2 mile) under a widespread lower stratus deck (with maybe even some light drizzle?).

If the night were starting out more "pristinely" clear and subject to full radiational cooling, this forecaster would be more inclined to buy into the more aggressive HRRR/RAP solution and issue a somewhat proactive Dense Fog Advisory within the next few hours. HOWEVER, because there is at least limited coverage of lower stratus clouds still present drifting across our CWA this evening, and some hint (especially per RAP 900 millibar relative humidity/RH progs) that this could expand in coverage with time (as evidenced by the more widespread low stratus already occurring to our east over southeast NE/much of southern IA)...could also see a scenario where we see more in the way of predominant lighter fog under increasing stratus. As a result, at least for now have opted to forego a proactive formal Advisory, but have added some more detail to fog concerns already included in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). IN SUMMARY: there is at least a a 50/50 chance that we'll end up with a formal Advisory at some point late tonight/early Thurs AM, but not enough confidence to pull the trigger just yet.

- 2) Limited potential for thunderstorms in our far southeast: Although the VAST MAJORITY of overnight thunderstorms in our greater region will focus at least slightly southeast of our CWA within central/northeast KS (along the nose of the low level jet), models such as HRRR/NAM suggest that the EXTREME northern fringes of this convection could try brushing up into the Mitchell County KS area of our extreme southeast CWA especially between 3-6 AM. As a result, have added a slight chance of storms to this area. Should convection indeed sneak into our far southeast, severe weather appears unlikely, but small hail cannot be ruled out given decent instability/shear.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have cleared out of the area as of early this afternoon, but considerable cloud cover remains, esp. for areas S of I-80. As a result, temperatures remain quite cool for early August - though not as cool as yesterday - in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Winds aren't nearly as breezy as yesterday, either. Clouds will continue the decreasing trend and allow for a late day run into the 70s to lower 80s, which combined with continued light winds, should make for a very pleasant late-summer evening.

The clearing skies, light winds, and recent rainfall will create favorable conditions for the development of fog late tonight and into Thursday morning, particularly right around dawn. Fog will be possible just about anywhere, but models are hitting areas along/S of Platte River down to around the KS/NE state line the hardest. General pattern recognition and recent model trends do support areas of dense fog and very low visibilities, so a headline may be warranted at some point this evening or overnight. For now, have hit the fog a bit harder in the grids and continued mention in the most recent Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO). Any fog should be rather shallow and fairly quick to mix out between 8-10AM Thursday morning.

The main weather story heading into the weekend will be the return of hot and humid conditions as a dome of upper level high pressure over the Desert SW builds/expands northeastward over the Central Plains. This will force the primary band of westerlies to retreat well N of the region for several days and leave the region under mostly clear skies and persistent southerly low level flow. Highs will build into the lower 90s to lower 100s over the weekend, warmest in our far SW zones. So no reason why dew points wouldn't return back into at least the mid 60s to lower 70s, and wouldn't rule out some mid to upper 70s in typically favored areas along/E of Hwy 281. Heat indices will respond accordingly into the upper 90s to lower 100s, though are currently forecast to fall just shy of Heat Advisory criteria of 105F. With that said, any significant upward trend in forecast peak heat indices could warrant one when considering the heat will be around for 3-4 days. On the other hand, it's early August and we're well acclimated to heat & humidity at this point, so would want to see peak forecast values more than just 105-106F. There should be some Srly breezes to help out too.

Forecast appears pretty quiet in terms of rain chances next several days. As always in these types of patterns, will need to watch for some "sneaky" weak waves rounding the crest of the ridge nearby or just to the N...but these would tend to favor the overnight hours and areas mainly N of I-80.

There is decent model agreement and run-to-run consistency amongst ensembles (and even some deterministic runs) to feel pretty confident about a notable pattern change arriving for the middle to later portions of next week. In fact, the most recent 50-member 12Z EPS shows a broad swath of positive 5-day precipitation anomalies across the central Plains in the 12-17th time frame. The upper ridge is forecast to flatten and reorient more into the Deep South during this time frame. This would allow for frequent rain chances from weak waves within increasingly fast zonal upper flow and/or from convection working off the High Plains. Either way, the orientation of the upper ridge should allow for some mid-upper level monsoonal moisture to work in from the SW and aid in precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 724 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): By far the primary concern is increasing confidence in several hours of very low ceiling and low visibility in fog late tonight/Thursday morning. Both prior to and beyond this, the first several and final several hours of the period carry fairly high confidence VFR ceiling/visibility, although a low-VFR ceiling is possible (or even ongoing) right out of the gate this evening. As for winds, they will be a minimal issue, with speeds through tonight into Wednesday morning mainly at-or- below 5KT, before a modest increase to around 10KT out of the southeast commences for the afternoon hours. It will also be a precipitation-free period (unless some light drizzle happens to accompany low ceilings/fog).

- Ceiling/visibility details and uncertainties: Right out of the gate this evening, KGRI/KEAR reside BARELY north of an area of high-end MVFR ceiling, but confidence is fairly high that both sites will hang onto no worse than low-end VFR ceiling through at least 06-07Z. However, beyond that "all bets are off", as there is very high/increasing confidence in very low ceiling, and at least moderately-high confidence in accompanying fog and reduced visibility. While the "exact" timing of deterioration below VFR is still a bit in question, have gone with prevailing LIFR ceiling/IFR visibility 11-15Z, with TEMPO 11-14Z for both LIFR ceiling/visibility with visibility down to 1/2SM. Truly dense fog in VLIFR cannot be ruled out, but confidence is not high enough yet for TAFs. While the worst of conditions (especially visibility) should improve by 15Z, the next uncertainty is how quickly ceiling lifts/scatters out to VFR. At this time, some of the most optimistic guidance suggests this could occur as early as 16Z...while some of the most pessimistic guidance hangs onto at least MVFR until at least 19Z. For now, have aimed TAFs toward a "middle ground" of 17Z return to VFR, but maintaining a SCT020 group to "hint" that at least some sub-VFR clouds could hang around well into the afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.