textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered rain and/or snow showers likely to roam parts of our forecast area mainly 3-10 AM Wednesday. No significant impacts expected, although a light dusting of snow and briefly-reduced visibility cannot be ruled out.

- Noticably cooler/breezy Wednesday (30s/low 40s) with a brief rebound in temperatures Thursday (50s/low 60s).

- Very windy Friday. Widespread wind gusts of at least 45 to 55 MPH expected, with isolated gusts to near 60 MPH possible.

- Cooler Friday onward, with temperatures expected to fluctuate closer to climo (upper 30s) than to what we have been seeing lately (50s/60s)...possibly through the end of the month.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Lots of clouds spilled across the region today as a cold front has been gradually pushing south across the area. This cloud cover likely helped keep down wind gusts across the region today as temperatures have struggled to climb out of the mid 50s in most spots. Light returns on radar has thus far amounted to no more than a few sprinkles in spots as cloud heights remain elevated (5-12 KFT) and the lower layers of the atmosphere remain fairly dry. That said, as we transition into the late afternoon and evening hours, expect the atmosphere to begin to saturate and for an uptick in light rain showers to be realized across the area. Latest HRRR continues to indicate there could be several rounds of light showers tracking south across mainly south central Nebraska this evening and overnight, with a high likelihood that many locations will receive at least a trace...and up to a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation by the time all is said and done Wednesday morning...including some possible flurries to start the day for areas mainly north of I-80.

While precipitation should end behind the cold front by late Wednesday morning, clouds will linger and winds will be breezy across the area through the afternoon hours, making for a noticeable change in weather conditions tomorrow. This cool down will be brief, however, as a transitory ridge of high pressure is expected to track southeast across the local area Thursday, and with breezy west northwesterly winds at the surface, temperatures should have no trouble returning to the 50s and lower 60s across the area. As this ridge then rapidly exits by Thursday afternoon, a strong cold front in the longwave trough is expected to push across the area late Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing with it very strong winds. Latest models continue to indicate this will likely be the most impactful feature of the period, with many ensemble members of both the GFS and EC indicating that 60 MPH+ gusts will be possible. Still have plenty of time to refine gusts in future forecasts, but for the time being, introduced to possibility of a few gusts 60 MPH+ into the HWO this afternoon.

While strong winds are expected with this front, any precip is expected to remain outside the local forecast area, with dry weather currently in the forecast from tomorrow afternoon through at least the end of next week. In fact, once again looking at ensembles, there are no significant signals for precip over the next 10-14 days (although another windy day looks possible Sunday afternoon), with temperatures generally focused in a range (+/-5 degrees) closer to climatology starting this weekend and then continuing for an extended period of time. Extended EC is a bit cooler than GFS for the time being, but either way, a cooler (yet seasonal) extended period of weather appears to be in store for the local area starting Friday, with more days near to below normal than above normal through the end of the month.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence that much of the period will feature moderately- breezy north-northwest winds, and also high confidence that much of the period will feature ceiling hovering generally near the VFR/MVFR breakpoint (longer duration at KEAR than KGRI). Lower confidence aspects include the possibility of occasional/passing rain showers and/or snow showers mainly between 09-15Z.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details: Right out of the gate early this morning, clear skies will gradually give way to increasing low stratus moving down from the north. Initially any ceiling should be low-end VFR, but anytime after roughly 09Z there is an increasing chance for high-end MVFR. Along with the lower ceilings, primarily 09-15Z features a window of opportunity for at least occasional/passing light rain showers eventually turning to snow showers. Felt that the PROB30 groups were still the most appropriate way to convey this chance. By around 15Z and beyond, chances for any precipitation diminish, but ceiling questions linger. Based on some of the latest typically-most-reliable guidance, it appears that KGRI will mostly likely scatter out any lower ceiling mainly 15-22Z. before at least a brief return to low-end VFR ceiling returns late in the afternoon/early evening. At KEAR, there is lower confidence that high-end MVFR ceiling will every truly lift/scatter out during the day, so hold onto it through 21Z before at least increasing to low-end VFR. Confidence in these "exact" categories and timing is only considered "medium" at this time.

- Wind details: Actually a relatively straightforward situation here. Most of these first 18 hours will feature north-northwesterly speeds typically sustained 15-20KT/gusts 20-25KT. However, late in the period this afternoon-evening, winds will drop off markedly and become around 5KT or less (variable direction).

On one final wind-related note, it is possible that "weakly strong" low level wind shear (LLWS) could persist for the first hour or so of the period (06-07Z), but with a gradual weakening of LLWS occurring did not feel it was worthy of inclusion, as the strongest of LLWS concerns from this evening should end by 06Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.