textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect again today for most areas west of Highway 281 from 1 PM through 10 PM.

- High confidence in dry weather today, but despite dry forecast on Thursday and Friday, can not rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm.

- Best chance for strong/severe thunderstorms and at least scattered areas of appreciable rainfall will be Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. Rain chances could linger into Monday, but with less certainty.

- Near critical fire weather conditions could continue at times mainly across our western zones, but no obvious additional Red Flag Days at this point in time.

UPDATE

Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Today... In the short term our biggest weather concern will center around this afternoon/evening's Red Flag Warning. Low RH values <20% are highly likely, but the south winds will be more marginal especially east of the Tri-Cities. Western zones will see an earlier increase in southerly winds as the surface high slides east of our area. It's these western zones that will see afternoon southerly winds gusting 25-30 mph. Please see the updated "Fire Weather" section below for additional detailed daily information regarding fire weather concerns (RH/wind).

Thursday and Friday... The NBM POP is less than 15 percent and thus indicates dry days. Although most areas will likely be dry, we can not rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and the SPC has included our far southeastern zones in a marginal/slight risk both days. We have some models like the 00Z RRFS that indicate at least some potential for showers and thunderstorms. I could see POPs increasing into the 20-30% range with future updates if more models trend wetter. Still, don't get your hopes up for rain until this weekend, that's really our best hope for appreciable rainfall when the main upper trough pushes into and through our area.

Saturday into Sunday... This weekend's upper level trough is appearing more impressive as we get closer, digging deeper and slowing down. This will finally allow better Gulf of America moisture (60+ dew points) to reach well into our forecast area. NBM dew point values are likely too low resulting in RH values that are also likely too low. Gulf moisture along with upper level forcing will bring us our best chance at more widespread appreciable rainfall, although it could come with a few severe storms. Both Saturday evening/night and again Sunday evening/night have at least a 50/50 shot or better of seeing some measurable rainfall. Stay tuned as we get closer and we can fine tune the most favored timing and location for weekend rainfall and severe weather threat. There is high confidence in temperatures being much above normal this weekend topping out in the mid 80s to mid 90s.

Monday... The upper trough has slowed down enough that forecast models are now indicating post frontal rainfall could impact portions of the area into Monday. Temperatures will begin to fall behind the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Today and tonight...

An upper trough is over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. A cold front is pushing through Nebraska and Kansas with winds becoming gusty out of the north. High temperatures today are expected to range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the forecast area today. See Fire Weather discussion below. Winds will weaken and become more variable tonight with clear to mostly clear skies. Low temperatures tonight will cool into the low 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday through Thursday night...

Winds will increase out of the south to southeast on Wednesday with an upper ridge developing from Texas northward to North Dakota. A surface high will be centered to the east of the area but will still impact south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. As a result, high temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s. Winds are expected to stay elevated Wednesday night with increasing clouds. These conditions will result in overnight low temperatures Wednesday night in the 50s. Winds on Thursday will be strongest in the morning out of the south but will weaken and become more variable by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday may warm up into the mid 80s to mid 90s but there is some uncertainty with this warmup. The uncertainty has to do with winds becoming more variable during the mid to late afternoon hours when the high temperature typically occurs and lack of a strong surface trough. There is also a slight chance (15% to 20%) of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of the area with a shortwave moving overhead. There is potential (about 20%) of some storms becoming strong to severe Thursday afternoon and evening due to fairly high CAPE, wind shear, lapse rates, and upper lift being present. Skies will clear Thursday night with light and variable winds. These conditions will result in temperatures cooling into the mid/upper 40s to around 60 degrees Thursday night.

Friday through Monday...

Winds will be relatively light (around 5 to 10 MPH) on Friday with a surface trough across the west. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny with temperatures warming up into the mid 80s to mid 90s. An upper level shortwave (and likely more than 1) is expected to move over the area on Friday. Wind shear, CAPE, and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be fairly high on Saturday and Sunday so severe storms may develop. Portions of the forecast area are outlooked in the SPC day 5 and 6 outlooks for severe storm potential. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the 80s and 90s. A cold front will move into the area on Monday with high temperatures mostly in the 70s. Severe storms may develop across southeastern portions of the area on Monday depending on the timing/speed of the front. Generally expect that any severe storms will be east of the forecast area at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Conditions will remain VFR through the period with no chance of precipitation. Winds tonight will stay calm and variable until 15z for KEAR and 18z for KGRI. South to southeasterly winds (150-170 degrees) will establish thereafter with speeds slowing increasing through the afternoon hours. Speeds in the late afternoon and evening will near 15kts with gusts maintaining between mainly 20-25kts through the rest of the 6z TAF period. A few mid-to-high level clouds will begin to roll in near 4-6z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Today... There is high confidence in afternoon min RH values once again falling into the 15-20% range. However, an area of surface high pressure will slide east across the area resulting in lighter surface winds this morning with the lighter winds lingering over eastern zones throughout the day. Stronger southerly wind gusts (25-30 mph) are expected across our far western zones (Dawson to Furnas Counties) by mid to late afternoon. Therefore, we have issued another Red Flag Warning for our western zones.

Thursday... RH values will be a bit higher (20-30%) and the stronger winds (30-40 mph) will be in the morning when the RH is higher and then the wind is expected to decrease during the afternoon as RH values fall into the 20-30% range.

Friday... RH values will dip again generally around or below 20%, but with lighter winds (<20 mph). Our NBM RH values may be a bit too low on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday... Southeasterly wind gusts will increase (25-35 mph) ahead of the next storm system and also bring more moisture/higher RH values (>20%) back into the region. NBM dew point and RH values are likely too low. Most areas should see 60 degree dewpoints and I expect when the NBM catches onto this better moisture we will see our dew point and RH values rise resulting in less of a fire weather concern this weekend, but we shall see.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039-046-060-061-072-073-082-083. KS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-017.