textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of the area today due to gusty southwest winds and low humidity.

- Warm, dry, and oftentimes windy conditions continue through this week, leading to continued fire weather concerns.

- Rain chances remain limited until at least the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Fire weather remains the focus for the time being. See the fire weather section below for more details on that.

Today, we start off a string of above-normal temperature days with temperatures climbing into the 80s, aided by a steady southwest winds. A cold front moves through Tuesday morning and will shift winds to the north. But this won't have a huge impact on temperatures (upper 70s north of I-80 and 80s everywhere else).

Wednesday looks to be a very pleasant day with high pressure overhead keeps winds fairly light. Western areas may see southerly winds increase in the afternoon as high pressure slides to the east.

The end of the week looks to be increasingly warm. There is some uncertainty on how warm we actually get Thursday/Friday. The NBM seems to be on the higher end of guidance...but that has been the trend so far this spring. Regardless of if we end up in the upper 80s or 90s, the take- home message is that it will be quite warm.

There is a low chance for rain/t-storms (20-30%) Thursday night, but don't expect this to be widespread or particularly impactful. As mentioned in yesterday afternoon's discussion, we potentially could see a more active pattern (possibly with some severe) starting this weekend and into the following week. But keep in mind, this is climatologically our wettest portion of the year (0.15-0.20" per day on-average), and global ensembles still favor below-normal rain totals during this period. Regardless, some rain is certainly better than nothing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Overall, a really nice afternoon is being observed across the local area with seasonable temperatures near 70 degrees along with modest breezes and partial sunshine. A few light showers or sprinkles can be seen developing across the Sandhills this afternoon, but with cloud bases near 8 KFT, likely little precip is actually reaching the ground. That said, did introduce a few diurnally driven sprinkles to the afternoon forecast update as Ord did manage to report some light rain this past hour. This shower activity should rapidly diminish during the early evening hours, with clearing skies anticipated across the region overnight.

As the winds turn southwesterly and increase across the local area Monday, expect a return of of critical fire weather concerns to the region as temperatures climb into the 80s and breezes become gusty (to near 35 MPH) as the surface pressure gradient tightens across the area. As a result, went ahead and upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning earlier this afternoon for the areas of most concern, although fully expect at least near-critical fire weather conditions across the remainder of the local area during the afternoon hours. This will be the first of several fire weather days across the area, that will likely extend through the end of the week and possibly into next weekend.

A weak front will cross the local area Tuesday with little impact other than a shift in winds and some passing mid/high level clouds. Temperatures will then really ramp for the latter part of the week when high temperatures near (or slightly above) 90 look to be in store for the entire area. A small chance for precip returns to the area as early as Thursday night as there are signs of the upper level ridge across the area beginning to weaken. Better chances for precip will likely return late in the weekend or early next week as both the EC/GFS ensembles indicate a more active weather pattern returning...a more promising outlook than what was advertised 24 hours ago.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions anticipated through the period with LLWS being the main concern as a front approaches and crosses the terminals towards the tail end of the TAF period.

Expect increasing high level clouds visible on satellite to spill across the terminals this afternoon as gusty southwesterly winds are realized at both sites. As the aforementioned front approaches the terminals, expect winds to initially shift and become more southerly this evening...with strong southwesterly winds aloft resulting in significant LLWS at both terminals. This front will then cross the terminals around daybreak Tuesday with a switch to northerly winds...that will gust to around 25 KTS...aft 12/17Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Southwest winds are expected to gust 25-35 MPH this afternoon (generally higher in Nebraska than in Kansas). Temperatures should climb into the 80s, pushing humidity down to near/below 20% across. As a result, the entire area will see near critical to critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect in areas that are expected to see the strongest winds and have fuels that are most susceptible to large fire growth.

A cold front moves through on Tuesday morning, but this will not a bring a significant cooldown. Northern areas may end up in the upper 70s to low 80s, but portions of Kansas should still reach the upper 80s. Drier air will advect into the area, resulting in another day with humidity bottoming out in the 15-20% range. North winds gust 20-30 MPH, resulting in another day of widespread near critical to critical fire weather.

Wednesday remains very warm and dry, but will feature a reprieve in winds for SOME of the area. Unfortunately, western zones (near/west of Highway 183) are still likely to see gusts around 25 MPH in the afternoon hours.

Thursday is potentially shaping up to be the most concerning fire weather day of the week. There is some uncertainty on how warm we will actually get, but many areas could approach/exceed 90 degrees, aided by very strong south winds...possibly gusting near 40 MPH in some areas.

Friday is expected to have significantly lighter winds than Thursday, but still remains relatively warm and dry.

The weekend also has potential for additional fire weather concerns as system moves through the central Plains.

Precipitation chances remain fairly limited. There is a low chance (10%) for a wetting rain Thursday night, and another slightly better chance (30%) Saturday night.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039-040- 046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084. KS...None.