textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Steady light to moderate rainfall early this afternoon will become heavy at times this afternoon/evening (3-11PM). Tornado threat (4-11PM) mainly KS zones.

- Flash Flood Watch remains in effect (primarily south of Hwy 30) for potential of 2-4", localized 4-7", of total rainfall.

- Most of the rain will have ended by 3 AM tonight. Flood Watch for Nebraska may need to be ended early. Additional rainfall on Thursday appears to be more focused on Kansas and will not be as heavy as today.

- Much drier, and seasonably cool conditions (Highs 60-75F / Lows 45-55), settle in for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Tornado/Wind Threat This Evening...

A northward lifting warm front could make it as far north as Osborne/Mankato/Hebron by this evening. There will be at least a limited tornado threat along and south of this warm front given strong low level wind shear (0-1km SRH 250-350 m2/s2) and marginal instability (500-1500 J/KG). Limiting severe weather factors will be extensive cloud cover limiting overall instability and widespread precipitation shield lacking the more severe conducive discrete convection. A few breaks in the clouds across southern Kansas will likely expand into central Kansas, but it is unlikely that we will see any breaks in the clouds across north central Kansas, which will limit instability and severe potential. Am not really concerned about hail in this more tropical set up. Our primary tornado threat will be near and south of that warm front (Osborne to Hebron) between 4-11PM. Given the tropical environment our boundary layer will likely remain unstable for several hours after sunset allowing for tornado threat to persist after dark. Thunderstorms will likely not display very impressive reflectivity signatures, but given the strong shear and low cloud bases we will have to keep a close eye on possible velocity rotation signatures.

Heavy Rain/Flooding Threat...

We have been hitting on this heavy rain/flooding threat for several days. The heaviest/majority of the rain will fall over the next 6 to 12 hours (3-11pm). The rain will first increase in intensity across Kansas and then lift north into southern Nebraska as we head through the evening. The heaviest rain is most likely south of an Osceola, Doniphan, Holdrege line. Along and south of that line we expect widespread 1-3" rainfall amounts. However, the bigger concern is the potential for training thunderstorms resulting in localized very heavy rainfall amounts as high as 4-7". These heaviest amounts will be very limited in area, but of significant impact. Many forecast models hint at training storms with localized high end amounts over 5". Given the recent heavy rain over the past week and saturated soil conditions across much of the area, areas that do realize these highest amounts (4-7") could see considerable flash flooding. Anyone along or south of the above mentioned line should at least be prepared for the possibility of these localized higher end amounts.

The rain will gradually diminish and end in many areas after midnight. We could see some rain redevelop across mainly Kansas during the day on Thursday, but of less intensity that today. Technically the Flood Watch will continue into Thursday, but may end early across Nebraska zones if current forecast trends continue. There could be ongoing flooding from tonight that persists in some areas for several days. Additional rainfall amounts on Thursday will be heaviest across Kansas (0.25-1.00") and lightest across Nebraska (generally 0-0.25").

Friday through Wednesday...

Not going to spend much time on this period as the weather generally becomes quiet with mainly dry and seasonably cool conditions. There is good confidence that most days through Monday will see highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We do expect slightly warmer conditions Tuesday through the end of next week (upper 60s - mid 70s) but with higher uncertainty.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Widespread rain is expected from 18z WED afternoon through 09z THU AM. A few thunderstorms can mix in with rain this afternoon and evening from roughly 22z - 03z, but the prevailing condition is expected to be primarily rain alone with storms staying south of terminals. IFR ceilings with MVFR visibilities are expected through around 03z this evening, with MVFR visibilities favored to continue. The main uncertainty is how our ceilings behave in the 03z - 09z timeframe. Have opted to put prevailing MVFR ceilings in this time window, however some models try to maintain IFR ceilings and thus have noted these chances in PROB30 groups. A few lingering pockets of showers can stick around through about 12z THU morning (primarily for KGRI) before dry conditions prevail and both visibilities and ceilings return to VFR.

Regarding surface winds and LLWS, models indicate a few on-and- off bouts of 1,000 - 2,000 ft layer winds reaching 35 - 40 kts tonight between 02z - 10z. However, given stronger surface winds, we are unlikely to meet the technical threshold of 30 kts of true shear in the surface to 2,000-ft layer. Tomorrow morning in the 09z - 12z timeframe, surface winds will likely spike to 10+ kts with gusts of 20+ kts lasting through the rest of the TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NEZ048-049-060>064- 072>077-082>087. KS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.