textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog is expected to develop across the area this morning, with visibilities of a 1/4 mile or less possible. A dense fog advisory is in effect through 10 AM.

- Temperatures will increase over the next few days, with high temperatures reaching the 90s and possibly over 100 by Saturday. Heat Index values over 100 degrees are possible Saturday through Monday, particularly in north central Kansas.

- Although quite uncertain, the chance of showers/thunderstorms returns Saturday evening/night, with a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms.

UPDATE

Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The main weather impact for the next 24 hours is the development of dense fog through most of the area this morning. 0Z REFS guidance indicated a 30-70% chance of seeing visibilities drop below a 1/4 mile by sunrise. The spotty expansion of the stratus deck to the SE of the area has increased confidence in realizing these lower visibilities, prompting an area wide Dense Fog Advisory through 10AM. However, a couple of isolated pockets of dense fog may linger after the expiration of this advisory, as indicated by latest HRRR model.

Today will start the warming trend that will likely continue through Monday, as the upper-level ridge over the intermountain west builds eastward. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s today, though this is dependent on the intensity and duration of the fog this morning. Temperatures are expected to increase into the 90s, possibly even over 100 in SW portions of the area, by Saturday. While seeing heat index values exceed 100 degrees is certainly possible Saturday through Monday (30-50% chance), uncertainty in the temperature forecast increases Sunday and beyond. This uncertainty is largely driven by the possibility of showers/thunderstorms Saturday evening/night, forced by some models resolving up a pocket of vorticity looking to ride the NW flow on the fringes of the ridge. However, forecasting these "ridge riders" 3 Days+ out remains challenging, as models struggle to forecast these weakly forced systems. Nonetheless, there is a low chance for some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms, with model guidance showing 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE and at least 30 kts of 0-6km bulk shear.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have cleared out of the area as of early this afternoon, but considerable cloud cover remains, esp. for areas S of I-80. As a result, temperatures remain quite cool for early August - though not as cool as yesterday - in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Winds aren't nearly as breezy as yesterday, either. Clouds will continue the decreasing trend and allow for a late day run into the 70s to lower 80s, which combined with continued light winds, should make for a very pleasant late-summer evening.

The clearing skies, light winds, and recent rainfall will create favorable conditions for the development of fog late tonight and into Thursday morning, particularly right around dawn. Fog will be possible just about anywhere, but models are hitting areas along/S of Platte River down to around the KS/NE state line the hardest. General pattern recognition and recent model trends do support areas of dense fog and very low visibilities, so a headline may be warranted at some point this evening or overnight. For now, have hit the fog a bit harder in the grids and continued mention in the most recent Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO). Any fog should be rather shallow and fairly quick to mix out between 8-10AM Thursday morning.

The main weather story heading into the weekend will be the return of hot and humid conditions as a dome of upper level high pressure over the Desert SW builds/expands northeastward over the Central Plains. This will force the primary band of westerlies to retreat well N of the region for several days and leave the region under mostly clear skies and persistent southerly low level flow. Highs will build into the lower 90s to lower 100s over the weekend, warmest in our far SW zones. So no reason why dew points wouldn't return back into at least the mid 60s to lower 70s, and wouldn't rule out some mid to upper 70s in typically favored areas along/E of Hwy 281. Heat indices will respond accordingly into the upper 90s to lower 100s, though are currently forecast to fall just shy of Heat Advisory criteria of 105F. With that said, any significant upward trend in forecast peak heat indices could warrant one when considering the heat will be around for 3-4 days. On the other hand, it's early August and we're well acclimated to heat & humidity at this point, so would want to see peak forecast values more than just 105-106F. There should be some Srly breezes to help out too.

Forecast appears pretty quiet in terms of rain chances next several days. As always in these types of patterns, will need to watch for some "sneaky" weak waves rounding the crest of the ridge nearby or just to the N...but these would tend to favor the overnight hours and areas mainly N of I-80.

There is decent model agreement and run-to-run consistency amongst ensembles (and even some deterministic runs) to feel pretty confident about a notable pattern change arriving for the middle to later portions of next week. In fact, the most recent 50-member 12Z EPS shows a broad swath of positive 5-day precipitation anomalies across the central Plains in the 12-17th time frame. The upper ridge is forecast to flatten and reorient more into the Deep South during this time frame. This would allow for frequent rain chances from weak waves within increasingly fast zonal upper flow and/or from convection working off the High Plains. Either way, the orientation of the upper ridge should allow for some mid-upper level monsoonal moisture to work in from the SW and aid in precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low clouds will continue to errode through the afternoon and should see a return to VFR conditions by around 20Z. Winds will be out of the SE to SSE at 5-9kt.

For tonight...expect another round of stratus and/or fog to develop, generally after midnight. Similar to this morning, appears there could be a combination of IFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs. Have higher confidence in the sub-MVFR CIGs than VSBYs, so let that drive a tempo group of BKN004 CIGs in the 10Z to 14Z time frame. Status/fog shouldn't be quite as widespread as this morning and thus quicker to clear out Friday AM - returning to VFR around 15-16Z. Winds will be tend to be light out of the SSE tonight (5-8kt), then more variable come Friday AM.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.