textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions expected to continue on tonight into the daytime hours on Friday. Highs on Friday expected to once again be around the 60 degree mark.

- Overall best precipitation chances (which would be rain), still on track to spread across mainly the southern half-third of the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. Current forecast total amounts of around 0.25-0.5 lie across areas along/south of the NE/KS state line. Still some uncertainty with just how far north preciptiation extends.

- Dry conditions return Sun-Tue, with warming highs...forecast to reach the upper 60s-near 70 by Tuesday. Tue night-Thu bring the potential for a couple level disturbances to the region...precipitation chances are low (20 percent) at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Currently through tonight...

Upper air and satellite data show continued generally zonal flow across the area this afternoon...sitting on the northern side of broad ridging spread across much of the southern CONUS. Elsewhere, troughing remains over the central and northern portions of the East Coast, while low pressure spins over the central CA/NV border area. Satellite imagery also showing that outside a few patches of upper level clouds sliding through, skies are mostly sunny. At the surface, a frontal boundary has been gradually sinking south through the area...but outside of a switch to more NWrly winds, it's not having much of an impact. Seeing a handful of automated sites behind the boundary occasionally gusting closer to 20 MPH, but otherwise speeds are mainly around 10-15 MPH. Temperatures have been working out as expected, highs by the time the day is done look to be in the upper 50s-near 60 for most spots.

Not a whole lot to talk about for this evening into tonight, with quiet conditions continuing and little change aloft. A few models still hinting at the potential for at least some sprinkles to get close to the western edges of the forecast area, but without more support, confidence remains low and kept the mention out. The northerly winds spreading across the area behind the sfc front diminish this evening as higher pressure builds in...bringing more light/variable winds through the overnight hours. A few more clouds will be working their way in with time...and overnight lows are forecast to range from the lower 20s in the far north to right around 30 in the south.

Friday and Saturday...

Main story for the end of the week remains with the next system to impact the region, bringing increased precipitation chances. There hasn't been any significant changes in models over the past 24hr hours...with the biggest question still being how far north the precipitation can reach. Tonight into Friday, models are showing the upper level system currently over the CA/NV border making its way east into the Four Corners region, and are in good agreement keeping the daytime hours Friday dry. Cloud cover will be on the increase from SW-NE through the day...and winds will be turning back to the south as sfc high pressure slides east and a trough of low pressure develops over the High Plains. Speeds look to top out around 10-15 MPH. Even with the increasing cloud cover, expecting another day of well above normal highs, with temps right around 60 expected.

Precipitation chances will be spreading east and north across the region Friday evening/overnight and into the day on Saturday. Models continue to show the main upper level/500mb low tracking east long the OK/TX border...but still have variations of how far north precipitation gets, tied closer to the mid- upper level trough axis. Models remain in good agreement showing the thermal profile supporting an all-rain event. The NAM continues to be on the more northern-most side of the reach, bringing measurable amounts closer to I-80...and it does have some support. The highest chances (60+ percent) remain confined to counties along/south of the NE/KS border...but forecast does have increased chances closer to 40 percent up into the Tri- Cities/I-80 corridor. Looking at ensemble data, the ECMWF is more supportive/higher probabilities of 0.1 in or more, with the last couple of runs showing 50 percent or more having shifted north into the southern row of our NE counties....the GFS isn't as high. The probabilities of 0.5 in or more top out mainly in the 10-30 percent chance across our KS counties. Current highest forecast total amounts are in the 0.1-0.3 inch range for our southern NE row of counties, with 0.25-0.5 across our KS counties. Timing of the best chances currently look to be roughly in the 09- 18Z Saturday time frame...coming to an end from west to east by early evening. Confidence in highs for Saturday remains on the low side due to those rain chances...low 50s possible across KS, with highs closer to 60 not of the question up around Ord, where rain chances are not nearly as good.

Sunday into the new work week...

Overall, not really any significant changes made to the forecast for the latter half of the weekend into the middle of the new work week. In the upper levels, broad ridging builds onto the Plains in the wake of this latest system, with zonal flow continuing into Tuesday...the lack of any disturbances keeping things dry. Tuesday night through Thursday, models showing larger scale upper level troughing digging south across the western CONUS...with the potential of a couple shortwave disturbances ejected out ahead of it crossing the region, bringing some low end precipitation chances (mostly 20 percent). Not a lot of confidence in any timing/track details this far out. Models still showing warming temperatures ahead of the mid- week troughing/disturbances...lot of low-mid 60s for Sun-Mon, more upper 60s-near 70 forecast for Tuesday. 50s start working their way back in for Wed-Thu.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 510 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Northerly winds become light and variable this evening, persisting into the mid-morning hours on Friday. Variable winds become southerly around 6kts late Friday morning/afternoon and persist through the end of the TAF period. FEW-SCT high level clouds are expected through the morning hours on Friday, with SCT-BKN high clouds moving in late in the TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.