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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs today in the upper 60s to low 70s.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible this afternoon due to the combination of breezy winds and lower humidity.

- Seasonably warm weather continues into next weekend with highs in the 60s to low 80s.

- Largely dry weather expected with the next chance for precipitation Friday night-Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Skies are clear this morning under the influence of ridging aloft. Winds remain elevated this morning, helping to limit temperatures from being as cool as they were Saturday morning. Areas that see weaker winds will still dip into the mid-upper 30s, but widespread frost appears unlikely. After a chilly start to the day, temperatures will quickly climb this morning, aided by breezy south- southwest winds. Highs today will top out in the upper 60s-low 70s. Due to the seasonably warm temperatures, afternoon relative humidity values fall to around 30 percent. Lower humidity, warm temperatures and winds gusting 20-30mph will result in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40s are expected overnight coldest across northwestern portions of the area. Highs on Monday will be slightly cooler, in the low to mid 60s. Lighter winds keep fire weather concerns low. Temperatures gradually climb through the rest of the week with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Largely dry weather is expected through Friday, though can't completely rule out a weak shower Monday night-Tuesday from a passing disturbance. Days with breezy winds could bring a return of fire weather concerns, but increasing dewpoints could keep relative humidity values high enough to limit concerns. Higher precipitation chances arrive Friday night-Saturday as a deeper trough moves into the Plains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Today (Saturday) through Tuesday...

Following the first freeze of the season earlier this morning, temperatures have made a quick recovery today back into the low to mid 60s. This warmup has and will continue to be assisted by steady south to southwesterly warm air advecting winds across the next several days. Though temperatures overnight tonight may not fall as low as this past morning (overnight lows: mid 30s to mid 40s), a few areas of frost may still be able to form tonight across portions of the area west or north of the Tri-Cities.

Aloft, ridging across the Intermountain West Region shifts east and over into the Central U.S., clearing skies and suppressing any chances for precipitation from subsidence. Winds speeding near 15- 20MPH and gusting as high as 25-35MPH this afternoon come as yesterday's strong high pressure center leaves behind a compressed surface pressure gradient. These occasionally gusty southerly winds should maintain across the Sunday-Tuesday afternoon timeframe as well, helping highs break into the upper 60s to low 70s for mainly Sunday and Tuesday. A few clouds passing through the area Monday could keep highs in the 60s (only a 20% chance of exceedance).

Wednesday and Beyond...

Long-range forecast models (LREF members) continue to show considerable agreement with the general timing and intensity of how this upper-level ridge progresses through the middle of next week. An intensification of this ridge across the middle of the week should translate down to the surface as temperatures will be likely to expand up into the mid 70s to lower 80s Wednesday-Friday. The next pattern chance looks to come near the end of next week as a building trough works to push the ridging pattern out. In addition, this disturbance will likely bring the area its next precipitation potential (30-50% chance of precipitation Friday/Saturday). Given the absence if any strong surface pressure gradient underneath the ridging pattern, broad southerly winds will be favored to prevail across much of the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions expected through TAF period. LLWS will persist through 14z. Southerly winds sustained 10-15kts and gusting 20-25kts are expected through late sunday afternoon, strongest during the daytime hours. Clear skies expected through the afternoon, with SCT high cirrus late in the TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.


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