textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today into tonight, although many areas, especially north of I-80 will remain dry.

- There is a low chance (5%) for storms to become severe, mainly southwest of a line from Cambridge, NE to Mankato, KS.

- Beyond today, rain chances look bleak until at least Thursday/Friday.

- Fire weather will become the primary concern next week as hot, dry, and breezy conditions return to the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

CAMs show a few pre-frontal showers developing late this morning, with increasing coverage of showers and t-storms this afternoon and evening as the front moves into the area. That being said, many areas, especially north of I-80 will remain dry through today/tonight. Convective parameters look similar to yesterday, with less than 1000 J/kg MUCAPE but ample deep-layer shear. As such, most storms will be non-severe, but a few could become strong to severe in southwestern portions of the area. High cloud bases would support downburst winds as the primary threat, but some marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with effective shear on the order of 30-40kt. The primary timeframe for strong to severe storms would be 4-9pm. A few showers could linger late Saturday night, but should depart the area near or shortly after sunrise on Sunday. All said and done, areas near and south of the state line are most likely to see measurable rainfall, but even there it is unlikely to be anything more than 0.10-0.25".

Sunday will likely be the coolest day of next week. Highs are expected to reach the low 70s, which is about normal for this time of year, but the rest of the week will feature highs in the 80s and 90s. There is high confidence in dry conditions through at least the middle of the week. And even after that, global ensembles strongly favor below-normal rain totals through at least May 20th.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Widespread cumulus developed across the region this afternoon as temperatures climbed into the mid to upper 70s. This high based CU has been fairly shallow, with no precipitation being observed across the region. For tonight, expect this diurnally driven CU to rapidly diminish around sunset, with mostly clear skies returning overnight. These clearing skies should allow for good radiational cooling, but with light westerly winds providing some mixing/warmth, expect similar temperatures overnight as we saw to start the day Friday.

Increasing westerly winds are then expected across the region on Saturday ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the NE/KS state line late in the afternoon. This front should provide ample forcing for a line of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, with a small chance for a strong to marginally severe thunderstorm across portions of north central Kansas late in the day before the front pushes southeast of the local area. Current thinking is the greatest threat for any stronger storms will be during the 4-10 PM time frame, with wind gusts being the primary concern given the atmospheric profile. That said, despite relatively un-impressive instability values, good shear could promote a few more organized thunderstorms capable of producing nickel sized hail as well. Latest mesoscale models definitely focus the better looking convection across our Kansas counties, but a second line of (non-severe) storms in northwest flow coming off the high plains Saturday night could bring at least some light precip to our Nebraska counties as well.

Behind this front, a more seasonable airmass will settle in across the area for Mother's day, with high temperatures in the lower 70s and light northerly winds combining to make for a rather nice afternoon. Thereafter...the upper level ridge across the intermountain west will shift east to start next week, likely marking the start of a prolonged period of above to well above normal temperatures with limited precipitation chances starting on Monday. As a result, expect several near critical to critical fire weather days across at least parts of the local area next week, with likely dry weather prevailing through at least the end of the week. While the current CPC outlook for week 2 slightly favors above normal precip across the region, there is a strong signal that above normal temperatures will continue.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period.

Expect a cold front just north of the terminals to continue to shift the winds over the next couple of hours, with breezy northerly winds prevailing behind this cold front aft 09/19Z. Winds will remain northerly into the evening hours, but should diminish to less than 10 KTS aft 10/02Z. While a few showers may be observed at either terminal with this front this afternoon through early evening, CIGS should remain VFR and any precip should be light...resulting in no significant VSBY reductions. Winds will be westerly behind this front by mid Sunday morning, although mid level clouds near 10 KFT will likely persist at both terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

The hot and dry conditions will extend the spring fire weather season into May. Already on Monday, widespread temperatures in the 80s, humidity in the 15-25% range, and gusty southwest winds will combine to result near-critical fire weather conditions for the entire area, and it is possible that western areas see Red Flag conditions.

Winds flip to the north on Tuesday, but fairly widespread fire weather concerns continue as drier air advects into the area.

Wednesday may be a bit of a reprieve as most of the area (except possibly western zones) sees noticably lighter southeasterly winds.

Temperatures are favored to approach/exceed 90 degrees on both Thursday and Friday. Of the two days, Thursday appears to be the most concerning with strong south winds.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.