textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A red flag warning remains in effect until 6PM for a few south central Nebraska counties. More widespread and even more heightened fire weather concerns are expected to return Tuesday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for the entire area from noon until 8PM Tuesday. Please refer to the Fire Weather Section for more information.

- The next precipitation chance arrives Tuesday night (10-40%). Rain amounts will be limited in coverage with the overall best potential towards the northeast.

- Temperatures will rise towards the mid 70s to low 80s by Tuesday, followed by a 30-40 degree drop in highs to the mid 30s to low 40s by Friday.

- An extended period of non-zero PoPs lies between Wednesday night and Saturday night. The highest confidence currently resides Thursday (10-40% chances) and Friday evening and night (30-40% chances). Snow will be the most likely precipitation type.

- Despite this extended period of non-zero PoPs, limited confidence in timing keeps forecast amounts limited to only a trace to a few tenths of an inch of forecast snow accumulations.

UPDATE

Issued at 612 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Humidity values and winds have dropped below Red Flag Warning criteria and will continue to do so into the evening hours. Therefore, have allowed the Red Flag Warning that was previously in effect for today to expire.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Short Term...Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon

Falling surface pressure this afternoon denotes the onset of a weak surface trough mainly centered over the Northern Plains this afternoon. As result, southeast oriented winds have helped pump in a warm and dry airmass. A secondary resurgence of these 20-30MPH wind gusts may return overnight with winds calming for much of the day Monday. Aloft, a gentle ridge will help keep things more stable, assisting on keeping the period (through Tuesday afternoon) dry and warm (adiabatic warming from subsidence). Breezy southwest winds are likely to return Tuesday afternoon (gusts as high as 30-45+MPH) as a around 990mb surface low deepens over Central Montana.

The combination of the gusty southeasterly downsloping winds and subsidence from the ridge aloft (adiabatic warming) as well as clearing skies (diurnal warming) may help highs easily reach the mid 70s to even potentially the low 80s for a few locations (40-80% chances). These conditions for Tuesday will feel unnatural for February as temperatures race towards record high potential. For more information regarding this record breaking heat, please refer to the climate section below. In addition, the return of breezy southwesterly winds will likely cause some heightened fire weather concerns given the dry conditions. Due to the higher than usual confidence this far out, we have decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for the full area for between noon and 8PM. Please refer to the fie weather section below for more information.

Long Term...Tuesday night and Beyond

The next major pattern shake up will take place around Tuesday night as a cold front, tied to the aforementioned Northern Plains tracking surface low, launches on through the area. At this point in time, we retain only 10-40% PoPs for rain across primarily the northeastern portions of the area Tuesday night. Amounts will in all likeliness be minimal and not widespread in coverage.

The more notable change following the front will be from the tumbling of temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Highs will likely take a 30-40 degree slide across the period (from the mid 70s to low 80s down to the mid 30s to low 40s). A powering Central to South Central Plains roaming jet aloft will also work to stir up the mid-to-upper level pattern locally, bringing additional precipitation chances to the area mainly Thursday (10-40% chances) and Friday evening into Saturday morning (30-40% chances). Due to some timing uncertainty between long-range forecast guidance (GFS/ECMWF run to run inconsistency), an extended period of non-zero PoPs reside between Wednesday night and early Sunday morning.

Despite this extended period of non-zero PoPs, precipitation amounts currently favor more modest quantities (<0.2" of liquid equivalent). Given the dropping temperatures near the end of the week, snow will become the favored precipitation type, though at this point in time we do not indicate accumulations to exceed a trace to a few tenths of an inch in total. As of now the greatest confidence favors our northern most areas. Our general confidence with timing and any potential snow amounts will increase as this period becomes closer in time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Winds will be out of the south to southwest then will become variable beginning around 15z to 18z. Winds will become southeasterly by 00z Tuesday. Winds will decrease in strength during the overnight hours and will remain light (under 10 knots). Wind shear is expected at both terminals until around 09z. Fog is possible from around 11z to 16z but chances are low (less than 20%) so left out for now.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 355 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Despite a few drier locations out west on Monday, light to calm winds underneath a weak surface pressure gradient should keep any fire concerns out of the discussion. Fire weather concerns for Tuesday, however, are expected to ramp up as very gusty southwest winds (30-45+ wind gusts) meet drying conditions (minimum RH values 10-25%). A Fire Weather Watch has been issued this shift for the period noon through 7PM Tuesday afternoon across the full area.

A deepening low across Montana on Tuesday will drive breezy southwest oriented winds between 20-30 MPH with gusts as high as 30- 45MPH possible across the afternoon to early evening hours. These southwest downsloping winds will additionally transport in a warmer and drier airmass, also helping deteriorate fire weather conditions. Record high heat (mid 70s to low 80s) combined with dewpoints mainly in the 20s and 30s will drive the afternoon minimum relative humidity values down to as low as 10-25% areawide, generally drier heading west. Near-critical fire weather conditions already look to be a given with the overall best chance for critical fire weather conditions across locations near and east of HWY-281 (areas more likely to see RH values drop below 20%). The Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values across the area continue to range the Very High (level 4 of 6) and Extreme (level 5 of 6) classifications Tuesday, further building our confidence for a heightened fire weather day.

Though west winds will be lighter Wednesday afternoon (gusts only as high as 15-25MPH), near-critical fire weather conditions will return due to the very dry conditions (Min RH values mainly between 10-20%).

CLIMATE

Issued at 355 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Near-record to record high temperatures are likely to be approached/broken at various points today through Tuesday for both Grand Island airport (records back to 1896) and Hastings airport (records back to 1908).

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST/Observed* Grand Island, NE (GRI) Feb. 15: 67 in 1921 | 67* TIED RECORD

Feb. 16: 73 in 2017 / 1921 | 69

Feb. 17: 72 in 2017 | 77

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Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 16: 74 in 2017 | 69

Feb. 17: 74 in 1981 | 77

- RECORD WARM LOW/MIN TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 16: 38 in 2011 | 37

Feb. 17: 41 in 1981 | 42

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Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 16: 39 in 2011 | 38

Feb. 17: 37 in 1972 | 43

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.