textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak cold front will cross the area on today with mildly breezy north winds (15 to 25 MPH) in its wake. Temperatures will be largely unaffected and no precipitation is expected (along with only minimal cloud cover).

- There is a low chance (10-20%) for sprinkles/light rain Wednesday night. This will be along a stronger cold front, that will bring very strong NW wind gusts of 40-50+ MPH on Thursday.

- After a seasonal Thursday (30s/40s), generally mild temperatures (mostly 50s) are expected to finish out the week and through next weekend. This mild weather pattern is anticipated to stick around for a while, with above normal temperatures favored through the end of the month and no obvious signals for meaningful precipitation at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 425 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

Primary weather impact of note this forecast continues to be the potential for very strong NWrly wind gusts behind a cold front on Thursday. EPS ensemble continues to show mean peak gusts of 50-55 MPH along and esp. N of the state line during the day Thursday. Typically, this signal leads to at least scattered gusts around 60 MPH, which would meet High Wind Warning criteria. General consensus is that it's still a bit early for an official High Wind Watch (still 48+ hours away from 50+ MPH gusts), but assuming there's no major changes in model output over the next few runs, seems reasonable to believe one will need to be issued this afternoon. Fortunately, appears there will be enough cold air advection to keep RHs from tanking and there being a solid critical fire weather threat...however, even mid to upper 20s RHs with such strong wind gusts is obviously not ideal. Also, while this is not explicitly in the forecast grids at this time, would not rule out the potential for some blowing dust issues given recent dry weather, what will likely be near-full insolation, and steep low level lapse rates. Seems unlikely we'll get anything more than a trace to few hundredths with any scattered light showers we get Wednesday night to settle dust, either.

Outside of the wind on Thursday, the rest of the forecast is remarkably quiet/boring in terms of impactful precipitation for mid-December. Even long term ensembles are incredibly bleak with prospects for appreciable moisture through essentially the end of the month. Ensembles are also consistently mild/warm through the end of the month, which is hard to argue with given aforementioned lack of potential to put down any meaningful snow pack. So that only leaves temperature fluctuations as a day-to- day forecast "challenge". We'll see a dip in temps Thursday, and perhaps again Sunday, but otherwise...expect a lot of 50s/60s for highs and lows in the 20s to lower 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Sunny skies and mild temperatures returned to the area today. Temperatures overachieved across the board, with lower 60s being observed across much of the area this afternoon. These very mild temperatures along with light winds have made for a very nice afternoon across the region. For tonight...a few mid/high level clouds visible in satellite imagery upstream of the area are forecast to move into the region, but have little meaningful impact. These clouds will be ahead of a weak cold front which should reach the I-80 corridor by midday Tuesday. With mostly sunny skies expected to again prevail Tuesday afternoon, the main impact will be a modest resurgence in northerly winds, which will likely reach 15 to 25 MPH during the afternoon hours.

Slightly cooler weather should then filter in across the region Wednesday, which will just be a precursor to a more seasonal airmass expected behind the next cold front Wednesday night. This front does appear to have a bit of lower level moisture/cloud cover, and could even see a few sprinkles/light rain showers mainly during the evening hours Wednesday, although the window for any precip appears brief in model data. That said, the main impact will be the noticably cooler/windy conditions expected to return to the area Thursday. Several models are indicating winds could gusts 50+ MPH during the daytime hours Thursday, and increased the forecast values to reflect this potential hinted at in a majority of EC/GFS ensemble members.

This windy/cool punch will be short lived, however, as a flat ridge builds across the area by the upcoming weekend, with amplification of this ridge hinted at for early next week. This should result in a rapid return to mild temperatures to finish out the work week and potentially continue for several days thereafter. CPC guidance indicates that above normal temperatures are strongly favored across the local area through the end of the month which is in line with GFS/EC ensemble output predicting temperatures in 40s/50s continuing through at least the 30th, indicating we are looking at a potentially prolonged stretch of mild (and dry) weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR likely through the period, but do expect a fairly considerable amount of high clouds at times today, esp. midday into the afternoon. As for winds, no big issues foreseen with sustained speeds most of the period under 10KT as direction generally shifts from SW early this morning...to NNW this afternoon and evening behind a weak front. A period of slightly enhanced speeds are possible this afternoon, but even then gusts should only top out around 16KT. Light and variable winds expected this evening into overnight. Confidence: High.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.