textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- In the wake of this afternoon's rain, additional/intermittent chances for showers and maybe a few weak thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Not "soaking rains" rains by any means, but more needed rain chances all the same.

- The likelihood for frost and/or slightly sub-freezing temperatures exists on least 3 of these next 4 nights (the main possible exception being Wed night-Thurs AM). A Frost Advisory has been issued for our entire forecast area (CWA) for late tonight-Wed AM, with additional Advisories probable later in the week.

- Precipitation-wise in the longer term: MOSTLY dry weather will likely prevail the majority of Friday-Tuesday (and especially Fri-Sat). However, intermittent low-confidence/low probability chances for showers/mainly weak storms re-enter our forecast Sunday night onward.

- Temperature-wise: Seasonably-cool conditions persist through Friday-Friday night (highs mainly low 60s/lows mainly 30s), before a gradual/modest warm-up takes hold thereafter with highs mainly upper 60s-mid 70s and lows mainly upper 30s-mid 40s). In other words, no truly hot weather in sight!

- On a positive note: it still appears that we're likely at least a week away from any possible concerns for severe thunderstorms and critical fire weather conditions (although near-critical fire weather conditions probably cannot be ruled out by early next week).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS: - No truly significant changes noted versus previous 7-day "forecast package" issued early this AM.

- Simply making a broad commentary/big picture theme of the various Key Messages above, this forecaster's biggest takeaway is that we're really looking at a fairly ideal weather pattern for this of year...especially from a lack-of-hazardous- weather (mainly from a severe thunderstorm/fire weather perspective and not counting frost/freeze as truly hazardous), and also from a "drought damage control" perspective. In other words, although we're not expecting truly heavy/"drought- busting" rains over the next week, we ARE calling for only near-to-slightly above normal temperatures (at most) and an overall lack of windy days...keeping soil moisture evaporation to a relative minimum (especially compared to earlier this spring).

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. May 5): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM: Although we had at least modest rain chances in today's forecast for a while, this forecaster will readily admit that the coverage/duration of steady/numerous showers today has exceeded expectations from 24 hours ago. Instead of being more isolated/scattered, showers have instead been more widespread in coverage (especially in our Nebraska zones). While low freezing levels and resultant radar "bright banding" caused raw radar over-estimation of rain amounts in some places (especially early this morning...word of caution on that), ground truth from dozens of airport/mesonet stations confirms that the vast majority of our CWA has picked up (or will still pick up) at least 0.05-0.15" today, with isolated/spotty pockets of at least 0.25" (including much of Dawson County which was largely missed by heavier rain over the weekend). One one final "past weather" note, based on obs JUST west of our CWA at North Platte/Broken Bow, it's possible that a touch of wet/slushy snow mixed into the rain mainly in our extreme northwestern CWA, but likely with zero accumulation within our borders.

As of this writing, rain has cleared out of most of the southwestern half of our CWA, while showers continue drifting across much of our northeast half. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm that a low amplitude (but very evident) shortwave trough is in the process of passing directly overhead our Central Plains region, with the rain gradually exiting from west-southwest to east-northeast as it passes. At the surface, surface high pressure centered slightly to our north has promoted fairly light (mainly around 10 MPH or less) north-northeasterly breezes today.

Due heavily to the "over-acheiving" coverage of rain and associated widespread clouds, high temps this afternoon will easily fall 5+ degrees short of expectations from only 12 hours ago in some areas (especially our northern 2/3rds)...with highs now expected to range from no more than mid-upper 40s in most of our Nebraska zones, to low-mid 50s mainly in KS and Thayer County area.

- THIS EVENING (pre-midnight): Between 7-9 PM, any lingering light showers still ongoing in our far northern/eastern CWA will steadily depart off to the east. Off to our west, a few showers/weak storms will likely develop over southwest NE/northwest KS, but should fade away before potentially infiltrating our far southwestern CWA.

- LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED AM (post-midnight): Although there is very high confidence in dry conditions and a departure of mid-high level clouds, there is still at least modest uncertainty in how efficiently lingering lower level stratus clears out. However, confidence is gradually increasing that we'll likely see a pretty efficient clear-out (except for perhaps some lingering patches of stratus here or there), as a roughly 1023 millibar surface high pressure center settles directly over our CWA. ASSUMING skies clear as expected, temperatures will surely drop quite efficiently, with late night breezes mainly averaging under 5 MPH from the west-northwest. If anything, low temps were nudged upward very slightly (perhaps not the right direction?), but the vast majority of the CWA is now expected to bottom out 29-36 degrees. While especially some northern/western counties will surely drop slightly below freezing, areas of frost are likely to develop almost anywhere in our CWA. Instead of "splitting hairs" a bit and issuing both a somewhat marginal Freeze Warning and a Frost Advisory, decided to simplify messaging a bit and issue a CWA-wide Frost Advisory to cover the main impact to tender vegetation (a Freeze Warning would have been more strongly considered had we been calling for a more widespread "hard freeze" of 28-or-colder). In other departments, higher-res visibility such as from HRRR suggests that especially the western 1/3 of our CWA will be prone to at least patchy fog development (and possibly spotty dense fog reducing visibility to 1/2 mile or less). While the newly-wetted ground and clear skies argue FOR fog formation, the light westerly/downslope breeze often inhibits widespread fog development. Although introduced "patchy to areas" of fog to our official forecast and also our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID), definitely did not have enough confidence to issue a proactive Dense Fog Advisory (something to watch though).

- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: In the wake of any early-AM Frost/Freeze and possible fog concerns, the majority of the day will be dry under mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light and somewhat variable in direction, but mainly some variation of westerly or northerly. High temps were changed little, with most places aimed pretty uniformly between 62-65 degrees.

However, already by late afternoon (mainly after 4 PM), yet another low amplitude wave diving in from the west-northwest will spark more chances for showers/possibly a few weak (non- severe) developing over and/or drifting into mainly our northern/western counties.

- WEDNESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Although coverage is only expected to be isolated/scattered, much of the night is expected to feature at least spotty coverage of showers/a few weak storms, and quite a bit more cloud cover (especially post-midnight) versus tonight. ASSUMING this occurs, we should have a "one night break" from frost/freeze concerns (except for MAYBE our far north-northwest counties). Low temps are aimed mainly 38-43 degrees most areas...slightly above frost development. This will need closely monitored however, especially if skies look to be clearer than currently expected.

- THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT: Over the course of these 48 hours, our flow aloft turns more northerly than northwesterly, as at least a few weak disturbances drop southward through our region on the backside of a large-scale trough anchored from the Great Lakes into southeast Canada. At the surface, the main feature during this time will be a weak cold front dropping southward through our area Thurs daytime-evening, kicking up northerly breezes a bit (gusts around 20 MPH). Precipitation-wise, chances for isolated/scattered showers and some weak thunderstorms are highest Thursday daytime (and mainly in the southern half of our CWA), before any rain chances depart southward Thursday night and followed by dry weather for Friday. High temps still appear very similar both days (mainly low-mid 60s) and same story with low temps both nights (mainly low-mid 30s). Assuming no unexpected enhanced cloud cover, BOTH Thurs night-Fri AM and Fri night-Sat AM will be good candidates for additional Frost Advisories (maybe Freeze Warnings?).

- SATURDAY-SUNDAY: The vast majority of the weekend currently looks dry and overall-pleasant by most folks' standards, with warmer air arriving and resulting in high temps generally near-70 on Saturday, and mainly mid-upper 70s Sunday (and with relatively tame breezes). Saturday in particular looks almost "guaranteed" dry, but honestly Sunday- Sunday night carry a few more question marks as both the ECMWF/GFS depict at least spotty rain at least in the general vicinity of our CWA. As for overnight low temps, they appear to trend slightly milder (mainly upper 30s-mid 40s), taking frost/freeze concerns back out of the picture.

- MONDAY-TUESDAY: As usual, uncertainty in the details grows by this range, but our official forecast brings back various mainly small (20-30%) chances for intermittent showers and (probably) weak thunderstorms, as we remain in the path of at least a few disturbances diving down from the north-northwest. High temps are aimed very similar both days...most areas low-mid 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Tonight: MVFR CIGs will continue this evening before clearing arrives from the W/NW around 04-06Z. With clear skies and light Wrly wind around 5kt, may see some shallow fog develop towards 09-10Z, with somewhat better chances for EAR than GRI. Have lowered EAR to MVFR VSBYs, and can't completely rule out some pockets of dense fog...but thinking is the Wrly wind direction will help keep the fog from because dense on a widespread basis. Late day clearing and damp ground are competing factors FOR fog, so will need to monitor trends. Confidence: Medium.

Wednesday: Patchy fog could linger through about 14Z. Otherwise, should be a pretty nice day, esp. from a wind standpoint, as speeds should average only 5-8kt out of the W throughout the day. Have some aftn CU developing around 2K ft towards midday. Confidence: High.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ005>007-017>019.