textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- The good news for many folks (not all of course) is that temperatures through the next week will prevail on the slightly-cool side of seasonable for late-September, with highs mainly 60s-70s before some 80s sneak back into mainly our far southern counties this weekend.

- The bad news for many (not quite all?) is that sunshine will be a fleeting commodity these next several days as primarily lower lower-level clouds look to rule much of the time (especially through Friday), so enjoy whatever fairly limited/brief glances of sun you can get!

- Rainfall-wise early-week: Mainly spotty chances for showers/a few weak thunderstorms and probably more likely at times simply pesky light drizzle (and some mainly light fog) will be the main story these next few days.

- Rainfall-wise mid-late week: There are increasing signals that especially the Wed night-Fri night time frame could be a rather soggy 48-60 hours...with much of our forecast area (CWA) currently/preliminarily slated to measure a cumulative 1-2+" of rain.

- Ending with some good news we all can agree on: despite the numerous rain chances, the risk of severe thunderstorms currently appears quite low through the next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 447 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES WORTH NOTING/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE BEYOND THESE FIRST 36 HOURS (beyond Tuesday):

- Honestly, this was this forecaster's first deep-dive into the next several days, so am admittedly lacking "personal history" with recent trends. That being said, it sure appears that chances for more widespread/fairly significant rains (cumulative totals at least 1-2+") have only increased for the Wed night-Fri night time frame.

- While not a major warm-up by any means, at least a modest warm-up looks to arrive this weekend (highs more into the 70s-80s than 60s-70s)...accompanied by lower rain chances and more sunshine (at least more consistently partly cloudy).

-- FOCUSING SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS IN GREATER DETAIL (through Tues daytime): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: While there are limited breaks here or there, the vast majority of our forecast area (CWA) resides under lower stratus clouds this morning (clouds mainly at-or-below 1,500 ft. AGL). Under these lower clouds, there have been at least brief/spotty rounds of patchy drizzle, and at least spotty and mainly light fog has also developed here or there, especially under/near the limited breaks in the clouds. A small/compact cluster of steadier showers/weak thunderstorms is steadily approaching the far northern fringes of our CWA out of the Sandhills, and would appear most favored to affect Valley/Greeley counties within a few hours either side of sunrise. Thanks in part to the extensive lower clouds, low temps this morning will not fall far...on track to mainly bottom out 56-60 most places.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm an upper trough (with a compact/potent vorticity max) is tracking east-southeast through north central NE (driving the aforementioned small line/cluster of storms), while well upstream (west) a slow- moving upper low is nearing the central/southern CA coast.

At the surface early this morning, a very weak/non-descript pressure gradient is resulting in very light breezes ranging from calm up to only ~ 5 MPH...but if anything out of the north- northwest in most places.

- TODAY (through around 7 PM): Big-picture wise, the aforementioned compact upper vort max will track directly over our northern CWA this morning, before departing eastward this afternoon and ending up over IA by sunset. While instability/CAPE will be weak (likely no more than a few hundred J/kg), the presence of the passing upper wave makes it very difficult to truly "guarantee" dry conditions at any given point today. Therefore, have been generous with areal coverage of chances for patchy drizzle and/or low measurable chances for spottier rain showers (possibly VERY limited thunderstorms) almost anywhere in our area today (although any drizzle would only be this morning, with this afternoon being more just spotty showers). Backing up to early-mid morning, have maintained generic "patchy fog" in the forecast for much of the CWA as well. Although truly dense fog (visibility 1/4 mile or less) is highly unlikely except in the most limited of locations, certainly cannot rule out some spotty coverage of visibility near-to-below 1 mile (for now have considered this fog potential not quite worthy enough of Hazardous Weather Outlook/HWO inclusion).

In other departments today: low clouds should remain most entrenched/stubborn today within roughly the northeast 1/2 of our CWA, while roughly our southwest 1/2 should break out into at least some partial sunshine this afternoon. The high temperature forecast reflects these expectations, ranging from mid-upper 60s north and northeast east...to low-mid 70s south and southwest. Winds will remain fairly light much of the day, but become a bit steadier (up around 10+ MPH) out of the north- northeast by mid-late afternoon especially in northern areas as a weak cool front arrives behind the departing upper wave.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Much like the daytime hours today, it will continue to be almost impossible to "guarantee" truly dry conditions at any given location. For one thing, spotty light showers will remain possible almost anywhere early in the evening, with higher-res models such as the HRRR showing continued spotty shower potential occurring through the later-night hours mainly in our south-southwestern counties. Meanwhile, as lower clouds again "sock in" the area overnight, patchy drizzle also comes back into play for almost anywhere so have introduced this to the official forecast. Compared to the ongoing night, east- northeasterly breezes look to be a touch steadier at 5-10 MPH...which should help keep fog largely at bay under the low clouds. Temperature-wise, lows were nudged up very slightly (possibly not enough) given the expectation of widespread clouds...with most of the CWA aimed mid 50s (more so upper 50s KS).

- TUESDAY DAYTIME: While truly measurable rain will be sparse given that no well- defined upper disturbances will be passing through (if anything weak upper ridging should build in through the day), this forecaster readily admits that our official forecast might also read/look a bit too dry compared to reality. For one thing, later forecasts may need to extend patchy drizzle chances well into the morning hours, and also expand the areal coverage of least spotty rain shower potential (latest HRRR actually and somewhat surprisingly suggests increased rain shower potential during the afternoon especially for counties along/north of I-80 due to some subtle lift). Otherwise, under what should be persistent cloudy/mostly cloudy skies in most of our area, temperatures are aimed slightly cooler than today (especially south). More specifically, mid 60s most of our Nebraska zones, and low 70s in KS. Breezes will be a bit stronger than today (especially in the afternoon)...generally sustained 5-15 MPH out of the east southeast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Mostly cloudy skies, a bit of drizzle and cool temperatures lingered across the local area today. An upper level low across eastern Wyoming on Satellite is helping to trigger a few thunderstorms across the high plains - which if model data is correct, should mostly dissipate at they approach the area late this evening as they move into a more stable environment.

Overnight, a few storms could cross areas mainly north of I-80, closer to the center of the low, as it tracks east across the central plains. If realized, the environment remains unfavorable for strong or severe storms due to a lack of instability, and any storms should remain isolated and on the weaker side. Of secondary concern, there are some hints of fog development across the area to start the day Monday with the latest HRRR indicating some widely scattered dense fog. Given the light northeasterly winds and minimal T/Td spread, cannot rule out at least some patchy fog formation, and consequently added fog to the forecast to start the day Monday.

While some small pops remain in the forecast for Monday, most of the local area should remain dry behind the departing upper level low, with these mostly dry conditions likely prevailing through at least midday Wednesday, as weak ridging sets up across the local area ahead of the next more notable disturbance. While some small splotchy pops remain in the forecast at times late Monday through Wednesday afternoon, model signals for precip mid-week with this next disturbance have really ramped up over the past 24 hours, with most of ensemble members indicating a potentially very wet Wed/Thursday time period. While surface temperatures remain on the cooler side of climo and instability is on the lower side, could see some embedded thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, with more showery and less widespread precip expected to end the week and continue into next weekend.

Overall, a seasonably cool and occasionally unsettled period is forecast to continue across the local area for much of the next 7-10 days, with lots of cloud cover and the potential for some morning fog at times.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 708 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): The bottom line is that a healthy majority of the period will feature sub-VFR ceiling and/or visibility (especially ceiling) as low clouds remain a fixture much of the time. Precipitation- wise, patchy/intermittent drizzle will be possible both right away this morning for a few hours and again later this evening- overnight. It is possible that a spotty steadier rain shower could also pass overhead at some point during the period, but this probability is deemed too low to even justify a PROB30 group. Winds will be a minimal issue throughout, with sustained speeds nearly the entire time at-or-below 10KT as direction gradually transitions from northerly to more northeasterly.

- Ceiling/visibility details: Right out of the gate this morning, widespread IFR-to-MVFR ceiling blankets the region. In short, potential IFR ceiling (and possibly fleeting MVFR visibility in light drizzle/fog) will remain possible for a few more hours, but a gradual improvement to MVFR is likely by around 16Z...followed by what "should" be at least a few-to-several hours of VFR ceiling centered 20-01Z KGRI/19-03Z. Beyond these times, confidence is fairly high in a steady return to MVFR-then-IFR ceiling later this evening-overnight, along with the redevelopment of at least patchy drizzle/light fog that could reduce visibility to mainly MVFR.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.