textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Not totally out of the question an isolated shower- thunderstorm could work its way in to far NNW portions of the area this evening. Rest of the area remains dry.

- Another upper level disturbance and southward pushing surface cold front make their way into the area for Monday...bringing additional precipitation chances to the area. For areas near/south of the NE-KS state line, not out of the question some afternoon-evening storms could be strong, but the better potential for severe storms currently looks to be focused to our SE.

- Tuesday/Wednesday bring additional rain chances and cooler temps with highs in the 50s. The end of the work week into next weekend warm back up into the 70s...with periodic precip chances continuing, especially next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Currently through tonight...

Can't complain too much about conditions to end the weekend...with overall light winds and partly cloudy skies. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing northwesterly flow in place across the Central and Nrn Plains...driven primarily by broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. A weak ridge axis extends north from the Desert SW into the Rockies, while a larger area of low pressure is inching closer to the central CA coast. A weaker shortwave disturbance sliding SE off to our NNE late last night into this morning pushed a surface frontal boundary south into the forecast area...reaching far southern fringes by around midday. This front ushered in generally northeasterly winds...but with it not being a strong front, has not brought a notable increase in speeds or a change in temperatures. Highs will top out in the 70s-low 80s.

To varying degrees, some models still showing the potential for isolated showers/storms developing over the NE/SD High Plains later this afternoon...then sliding southeast with time through the evening hours. Still lingering uncertainty whether any of that activity maintains itself long enough to get into our forecast area...but with some models showing that being possible, have a small chance of precip in far NNW portions of the area for a few hours mid-late evening. Otherwise the rest of the overnight hours are expected to be dry. Winds overnight expected to be on the light/variable side, turning more WSW closer to dawn...as the area sits between the departing front from today and the next which will be making its way through the Dakotas overnight.

Monday through Wednesday...

The forecast for the first half of the new work week remains on the more active/wet side. On Monday, the forecast for much of the daytime hours remains dry...it's not until late in the day and into the evening-overnight hours that higher precip chances spread across the area. Models remain in good agreement showing upper level shortwave energy swinging through central Canada...aiding in the eventual deepening of a more organized upper low over Ontario by late evening-overnight Monday. This system will push another surface cold front south through the region...with the potential for showers and storms to develop along it mid-late afternoon...so its progress/location is an important detail. Still some lingering slight differences between models with where the boundary is when activity develops...ranging from closer to the NE/KS state line to a touch further south and closer to I-70. Ahead of the front...not much change with forecast highs, reaching well into the 70s and lower 80s. Because of the short period between frontal passages...the surface pattern never gets much of a chance to bring more solidly southerly flow to the area and increased moisture return. Forecast dewpoints through the afternoon remain in the 30s- 40s...so models are keeping instability mainly less than 1000 j/kg, with better values more focused over eastern KS where dewpoints closer to/over 50 are expected. Can't rule out some storms being on the stronger side...but the better threat for severe storms remains focused just off to our E-SE, where the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area remains.

For the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame...no notable changes with models, and the forecast continues to have widespread precipitation chances. The forecast remains situated on the southern edge of larger, broader troughing driven by that Canadian low creeping further east. The daytime hours on Tuesday may end up being somewhat of a lull in activity...especially the further north and east you go. Tuesday evening on into Wednesday, models show another push of upper level shortwave energy through the Plains...with recent runs generally focusing the better chances for precip across roughly the SSW half of the forecast area. Sitting north of the main sfc frontal boundaries...models not showing much potential for instability/thunder, so just plain rain showers is the primary precip type. Expecting generally northerly winds during this period, with plenty of cloud cover...and notably cooler temps, with highs both Tue-Wed forecast to top out in the 50s.

Thursday on into next weekend...

Models are in decent agreement with the broad picture...showing the upper level pattern continuing to be mainly northwesterly, at times more zonal, through next weekend. This pattern looks to bring periodic shortwave disturbances through the Plains...especially as we get into the weekend period. Lot of details to iron out over this week, don't get too hung up on specifics that far out. Following those Tue-Wed highs in the 50s, temps are expected to climb back into the 70s for Thu-Sun.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Light and variable to calm winds are expected this evening/tonight. The wind will gradually begin again Monday morning after sunrise out of the west, but will remain light throughout the morning. An early Monday afternoon frontal passage will shift the winds to northerly and result in more gusty conditions with some gusts of over 20 kts by later Monday afternoon. VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout the period with few to scattered clouds generally above 10-15K ft.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.