textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Given the dry conditions and occasionally gusty winds, periods of critical to near-critical fire weather concerns may arise at times this week. At least near-critical conditions are likely Monday afternoon and again Wed-Sat afternoons, with Thursday afternoon currently of highest concern for perhaps more widespread critical conditions. Please refer to the separate Fire Weather section for more information.

- Some showers/thunderstorms in our southern counties along with a few brief snow showers moving down into our northern counties from the Nebraska Sandhills brings a 40-70% chance of precipitation to the area Tuesday evening/night. A few of our Kansas counties are even under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for a few severe storms.

- Precipitation will likely be minimal (<0.1") for the majority of the area with the best potential and higher amounts (up to ~0.3") concentrate to the southeast (areas closer to the center track of storms).

- Temperatures will peak Monday (70s to low 80s) before a cold front drops highs to the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday. Highs the rest of the week will hang in the 50s, 60s and 70s.

UPDATE

Issued at 854 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

- REGARDING THE NOW-EXPIRED RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY: Now that evening has set in, wind gusts have consistently dropped below 25 MPH and relative humidity will continue to steadily rise well above 20 percent with each passing hour. As a result, today's Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire "on time" at 8 PM.

Please note that although it will not be as windy across this area on Monday, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are still possible in spots, due to the combination of relative humidity as low as 10-20 percent in most of our area, and winds also gusting as high as 20-25 MPH. Please refer to separate Fire Weather section below for more details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Clear skies with steady west-southwesterly warm air downsloping winds have helped highs near the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Even warmer temperatures (70s to low 80s) will return Monday afternoon as the warming trend tops off for the week. Given the drier conditions and steady to occasionally gusty winds, periods of critical to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible several afternoons this week. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8PM this evening for portions of south central Nebraska. Please refer to the fire weather section below for more information.

Conditions across the near-term remain relatively quiet as a zonal pattern aloft leaves weak subsidence and clear skies in place. Meanwhile, a Southwest centered cutoff low awaits in the wings for its turn to cross towards center stage (Central Plains). This low is favored to merge back in with the jet stream Tuesday, accelerating a trough across the Central U.S. Wednesday. This feature will bring the area its next precipitation chance Tuesday evening and night (40- 70%). Before the precipitation arrives, a cold front Tuesday morning will pass through and off to the southeast, knocking highs down around 10 degrees for far southern portions of the area and down 30 degrees for far northern portions of the area. In addition, the westerly winds will become northerly oriented until Thursday.

This system will have two precipitation modes; a cluster of thunderstorms passing near/across our southeast as well as a few light snow showers approaching from the Nebraska Sandhills. Given the approach of these two precipitation features, the lowest PoPs across the area (40-50%) presently lie across the southwestern, central and northeastern portions of the area. The highest precipitation potential (60-70%) generally increases as one heads southeast or northwest of the local area. The greatest precipitation totals should naturally fall across those far southeastern locations where the thunderstorm cluster tracks (up to 0.1-0.3"). Meanwhile, precipitation amounts everywhere else will be more minimal than not (<0.1"). Only a few flurries and areas of light snow will venture into a few northwestern portions of the area.

Conditions beyond Tuesday should remain fairly dry until at least Saturday afternoon. Highs behind the front will be slow to recover Wednesday afternoon (upper 40s to low 50s), though clearing skies Thursday should make way for mid 50s to mid 70s highs through the rest of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 710 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: This is an extremely-high-confidence period with regard to not only VFR ceiling/visibility, but in fact nothing more than FEW/SCT passing high-level cirrus clouds at most. Winds will also not be as strong as they ended up being during the day Sunday...BUT...there will be some "sneaky breeziness" with gusts as high as 15-20KT at times. Overall though, marginally-strong low level wind shear (LLWS) is really the primary issue.

- Wind details: - Surface winds: Right out of the gate this evening, southwesterly winds are dropping off considerably from afternoon values, but will remain a touch breezy this evening with sustained speeds still 10-15KT/gusts up to around 18KT. Early Monday morning, the minor gustiness will let up somewhat as direction shifts more westerly, with sustained speeds mainly at-or-below 11KT for several hours. However, the daytime will bring another modest uptick, with gust potential again increasing to around 16-18KT as direction prevails generally westerly.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): Although only marginally-strong and marginally-worthy of TAF-inclusion at times, have maintained (with some adjustments) the LLWS groups introduced in previous TAFs. - At KGRI: Actually shortened the LLWS duration to 05-08Z, as this 3-hour time frame is most favored to see west- southwesterly winds increase up to around 43KT out of the west-southwest within the lowest roughly 1K ft. AGL (resulting in roughly 30KT of shear magnitude between the surface and this level). - At KEAR: Actually introduced a secondary LLWS group to account for a directional shift. The first group (05-08Z) accounts for winds increasing to around 40KT out of the west-southwest within the lowest roughly 1K ft AGL. This is immediately followed (08-12Z) by a secondary LLWS group as low level winds (again within the lowest roughly 1K ft. AGL) shift more northwesterly, but still remain up around 30KT (resulting in 25-30KT of shear magnitude between the surface and this level).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 854 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Fairly widespread near-critical conditions and at least localized outright-critical conditions likely on several upcoming afternoons this week (Tuesday being the main exception right now):

- MONDAY: Monday will be another very warm day for early March. Highs in the 70s to low 80s Monday with dewpoints in the mid 20s to mid 30s should allow afternoon relative humidity (RH) values to fall as low as 10-25% across the area (driest towards the west). As the forecast stands, this is the driest day in the week (just ahead of Thursday). West-northwesterly winds Monday afternoon at this point in time look to be just shy of reaching critical speeds (gusts <25MPH) across MOST of our area, though widespread near-critical conditions are likely to still be met for a majority of the afternoon hours. If anywhere were to hit critical criteria, it might be a few of our western-most Nebraska counties (such as Dawson) where the potential for a few hours of gusts 25+ MPH appears highest, and this area will be monitored very closely for possible Warning issuance.

- TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will limit the fire weather potential for Tuesday. Though cooler temperatures return Wednesday, much drier air is expected to mix down in from gusty 25-35MPH northwest winds (single digits to teen dewpoints). Widespread near critical fire weather conditions will likely unveil itself once more across the area Wednesday afternoon with the best potential for critical conditions to be met west of HWY-183.

- THURSDAY: Temperatures warming up again Thursday (70s) with slow to recover dewpoints (20s) will more than likely let RH values once again dip to as low as 10-30%. The continuation of gusty west- southwesterly winds Thursday afternoon will bring potentially what looks to be the worst fire weather conditions of thew week.

- FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Though less coverage in general, near- critical fire weather conditions may once again return to a western handful of areas both Friday and Saturday afternoons.

-- NOTE: - NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.