textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon for counties mainly along the far western fringes of our forecast area due to gusty northwest winds and low relative humidity/RH (elsewhere in our area, relative humidity should remain well above 25-30%). - Increased precipitation chances and opportunities for beneficial rainfall next week with the overall-highest chances (60% to 75%) tentatively expected Thursday-Friday.

- Along with the increased precip chances, chances for at least weak thunderstorms will also return at various points Wednesday night-Friday. Stronger storms could be a possibility (it is April after all), but still too soon to say whether any "true" convective threat might clip into our area or instead focus more to the south and/or east.

- Temperature-wise: Overall the next 7 days appear very seasonable for April, with high temps most days 50s-60s and lows most nights 20s-40s. At least for now, Wednesday looks like the overall-warmest day with highs 70s-low 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Red Flag Warning expired "on time" this evening: Although spotty near-critical fire weather conditions could linger through around 9 PM in our extreme western forecast area (wherever relative humidity remains 25 percent or lower and winds continue gusting at least 20 MPH), outright-critical conditions will no longer occur this evening. Relative humidity will steadily increase after sunset, climbing to at least 30-40 percent by 10 PM. As a result, the Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire as scheduled at 8 PM.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

An upper trough/low is over the Rocky Mountains and the Great Plains. Upper lift has increased across Nebraska and Kansas associated with the upper trough/low. This has resulted in showers, drizzle and fog developing earlier today that has cleared out of the forecast area. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are out of the north with high temperatures today ranging from the 40s in the north and east to the 50s and 60s in the south and west. A surface trough/low is across western Nebraska and western Kansas which has resulted in warmer temperatures and clearing skies. Temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the 20s and 30s behind a cold front.

Nebraska and Kansas will be on the backside of the upper trough on Saturday with gusty north to northwest winds. High temperatures will mostly be in the 50s and 60s across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Low temperatures Saturday night will be fairly similar to those from the previous night with light, westerly winds. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 60s and 70s on Sunday with the area in between 2 surface troughs. A cold front is expected by Monday with high temperatures possibly ranging from the 40s to near 70. Temperatures will warm on Tuesday with winds increasing out of the south, although there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the high temperatures due to increased lift and cloud cover. Temperatures will continue to warm on Wednesday as winds increase out of the south to southwest. Cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday due to a cold front but there is high uncertainty in regards to the high temperatures due to uncertainties in the timing and strength of the front. Precipitation chances increase again next week with the highest chances Thursday night (60% to 75% chance).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 713 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): Confidence is high in VFR visibility throughout the period and is also high that ceiling should drop no lower than MVFR (perhaps BRIEF IFR mainly KGRI?). However, there are some question marks regarding which side of the MVFR/VFR "breakpoint" the ceiling will ultimately prevail through much of the period...especially at KGRI where MVFR will probably be more prevalent. Precipitation-wise, while a brief sprinkle/flurry cannot be ruled out late tonight, high confidence that measurable precip will not occur and have kept any precip mention out of TAFS.

Besides the aforementioned ceiling questions, moderately-strong northwest winds are the main aviation issue...especially during the day Saturday when sustained speeds will commonly average 20-25KT/gusts around 30KT. Backing up to this evening-overnight, winds will start the evening mainly 10KT or less out of the north-northeast, but then start picking up more out of the northwest late tonight into early Sat AM...commonly sustained around 15KT/gusts 20+KT.

- Ceiling uncertainty (centered around MVFR vs. VFR questions): High confidence in continued VFR/mostly clear skies through at least 05-06Z. However, anytime between then and roughly 15Z at KEAR/21Z at KGRI...at least an intermittent MVFR ceiling is possible, with the main question marks being duration. For latest TAFs...have gone with increased duration of MVFR versus previous TAFs (mainly for KGRI), but confidence is admittedly considered only medium at this time. Focusing on each site: - For KGRI: have gone prevailing MVFR 05-21Z, with brief IFR even possible especially 05-07Z (currently have scattered IFR cloud group during this time). In reality, MVFR could be more intermittent than current TAFs depict. Although confidence is high in an outright return to VFR by 21Z, a lower-end VFR ceiling (4-5K ft. AGL) could linger even beyond that.

- For KEAR: The overall likelihood and duration of potential MVFR ceiling is certainly lower compared to KGRI, and only have prevailing MVFR 06-09Z. However, at least scattered MVFR clouds and/or a low-end VFR ceiling between 3-5K ft. AGL could persist well beyond that into Saturday daytime.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Saturday potential for near-critical" fire weather conditions in our far western forecast area: Near-critical fire weather conditions appear possible mainly within our far western forecast area...including Dawson, Gosper, Furnas, Phillips and Rooks counties...due to the combination of northwest winds gusting at least 25-35 MPH, and relative humidity as low as 20-25 percent. The remainder of our forecast area will also have gusty northwest winds, but relative humidity should largely remain above 30 percent.

Looking beyond Saturday, fortunately there are currently no "obvious" days that bear watching for potentially more widespread critical conditions that might necessitate Warning issuance, but Wednesday at least bears watching considering it is expected to be the warmest day of the next week.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.