textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry today, and most likely (80-90%) dry Tuesday

- Most likely chance (50-70%) for precipitation/thunderstorms will be Wednesday afternoon/night...Lesser chance (30-50%) on Thursday.

- Hotter weather pattern for the end of the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Quiet today with some afternoon cumulus, south to southeasterly winds a bit stronger than we've had the last couple days with temperatures climbing into the low 90s.

The primary points to talk about in this forecast are the Precipitation chances for mid and late week and the warm up for the end of the forecast.

The current ridge that is building in from the four corners region is not overly strong and a new disturbances are moving in from the central/northern Pacific coast and will break the ridge down. This will cause more quasi-zonal flow across the area, allowing for the disturbances moving across the northern Plains to impact us. The first and best chance for more widespread precipitation, including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is Wednesday afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Thunderstorms are likely to develop along or near a front that will be pushed east by a disturbance over the Northern Plains. The Grand Ensemble (including GEFS/ENS/GEPS) indicates that at least 76% of the ensemble solutions have at least a trace at KGRI.

For Thursday, the best potential for thunderstorms actually exists to the west of the area, primarily out in the High Plains of the Nebraska Panhandle, then after development it is more likely to track southeast into western Kansas. The same Grand Ensemble for Thursday at KGRI only includes 42 % that have at least a trace at KGRI. Meanwhile, looking further west, Thursday night shows a 59% chance of Precip greater than a trace. This highlights the greater potential for precipitation west of the area. That doesn't mean it will necessarily be dry, but it's not as good of a chance as Wednesday.

Temperatures will be seasonal throughout the week. Highs in the low 90s ahead of the wave on Wednesday with Thursday and Friday briefly cooler (highs in the mid 80s).

Things change by the end of the weekend, as the overall upper pattern changes with a ridge building into the intermountain west. It will heat up for the week of July 13th. That being said, watching the trends of the ECMWF Ensemble over the past 48 hours, the trend has actually been decreasing...in terms of some of the crazy high temperatures (exceeding 100 degrees). Now don't take this to mean that it won't still be a heat wave/significant warm up, but it may not be as hot as some guidance suggested a couple days ago. Wednesday and Thursday July 15th-16th look to be some of the hottest days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions remain in the forecast for this TAF period. Any cloud cover passing through looks to largely remain in the mid-upper levels...though some lower based CU may develop during the daytime hours on Tuesday, not expecting any ceiling restrictions. Winds are expected to remain generally southeasterly with speeds around 10-15 MPH, though some gusts near 20 MPH will be possible during the afternoon hours.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.