textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Well-above-normal/record-breaking temperatures continue through midweek and will contribute to very dangerous fire weather conditions on Tuesday.

- The ongoing Fire Weather Watch will likely be converted to a Red Flag Warning later today. Portions of the area, particularly W of Hwy 281, may experience *extreme* fire weather conditions that continue into Tuesday evening.

- Major pattern change towards colder and more active weather for the second half of the week. In fact, probabilities are increasing for accumulating snow for at least portions of the forecast area Thursday into Friday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 430 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

***Fire weather concerns, including potential for extreme/high- end conditions, are discussed in detail below.***

No major changes to the forecast for today - continued dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures, aided by a mild start to the day. A steady southerly breeze and bouts of high clouds have allowed some areas to remain in the 40s, even at 4am (on February 16th!). Fortunately, winds remain light during peak heating today, likely less than 10 MPH area wide, so no fire weather concerns. Highs should range from the upper 60s through the lower 70s.

Tuesday continues to look like the warmest - some may say even hot - day of the week with highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. See climate section for historical perspectives. Some model guidance triggers some light showers by late afternoon into early evening within a very steep low level lapse rate/deeply mixed environment. However, given the very dry low level airmass, most of this should be virga, if it develops at all...so not really worth even adding sprinkles just yet.

Wednesday is a transition day between the very warm temperatures on Tuesday and the return of winter on Thursday. Model guidance continues to indicate some potential for measurable snow, perhaps even significant snow, for portions of the forecast area Thursday into Friday morning. At this time, appears our Nebraska zones, particularly those along/N of I-80, have the greatest risk for winter impacts. Amounts will depend on usual track and intensity details that are just far far out to detail at this time. There does appear to be some potential for gusty winds, as well, which could enhance impacts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Short Term...Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon

Falling surface pressure this afternoon denotes the onset of a weak surface trough mainly centered over the Northern Plains this afternoon. As result, southeast oriented winds have helped pump in a warm and dry airmass. A secondary resurgence of these 20-30MPH wind gusts may return overnight with winds calming for much of the day Monday. Aloft, a gentle ridge will help keep things more stable, assisting on keeping the period (through Tuesday afternoon) dry and warm (adiabatic warming from subsidence). Breezy southwest winds are likely to return Tuesday afternoon (gusts as high as 30-45+MPH) as a around 990mb surface low deepens over Central Montana.

The combination of the gusty southeasterly downsloping winds and subsidence from the ridge aloft (adiabatic warming) as well as clearing skies (diurnal warming) may help highs easily reach the mid 70s to even potentially the low 80s for a few locations (40-80% chances). These conditions for Tuesday will feel unnatural for February as temperatures race towards record high potential. For more information regarding this record breaking heat, please refer to the climate section below. In addition, the return of breezy southwesterly winds will likely cause some heightened fire weather concerns given the dry conditions. Due to the higher than usual confidence this far out, we have decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for the full area for between noon and 8PM. Please refer to the fie weather section below for more information.

Long Term...Tuesday night and Beyond

The next major pattern shake up will take place around Tuesday night as a cold front, tied to the aforementioned Northern Plains tracking surface low, launches on through the area. At this point in time, we retain only 10-40% PoPs for rain across primarily the northeastern portions of the area Tuesday night. Amounts will in all likeliness be minimal and not widespread in coverage.

The more notable change following the front will be from the tumbling of temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Highs will likely take a 30-40 degree slide across the period (from the mid 70s to low 80s down to the mid 30s to low 40s). A powering Central to South Central Plains roaming jet aloft will also work to stir up the mid-to-upper level pattern locally, bringing additional precipitation chances to the area mainly Thursday (10-40% chances) and Friday evening into Saturday morning (30-40% chances). Due to some timing uncertainty between long-range forecast guidance (GFS/ECMWF run to run inconsistency), an extended period of non-zero PoPs reside between Wednesday night and early Sunday morning.

Despite this extended period of non-zero PoPs, precipitation amounts currently favor more modest quantities (<0.2" of liquid equivalent). Given the dropping temperatures near the end of the week, snow will become the favored precipitation type, though at this point in time we do not indicate accumulations to exceed a trace to a few tenths of an inch in total. As of now the greatest confidence favors our northern most areas. Our general confidence with timing and any potential snow amounts will increase as this period becomes closer in time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Model time heights showing more cloud cover passing through later today through tonight, with ceilings expected to remain above 10k ft. Winds this afternoon remain on the lighter side around 5-10 MPH, but will variable in direction. More SSE winds are expected this evening into Tue AM, still light around 10 MPH. For the final few hours of this period, winds will turn more SSW, with the potential for gusts closer to 20 MPH increasing. Stronger gusts expected just beyond this period Tue afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 355 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Despite some areas along and W of Hwy 183 dipping below 20 percent RH this afternoon, light to calm winds underneath a weak surface pressure gradient will keep fire weather concerns minimal for today.

Fire weather concerns for Tuesday, however, are expected to ramp up quickly through the daytime hours in response to increasingly strong southwest winds (gusting 30-45+ MPH) and very dry low level air (RHs dipping to as low as 10-20%) on a rather "textbook" fire weather day to the E of a deepening lee trough. In fact, areas mainly along and W of Hwy 183 may even see conditions relatively rare "extreme" fire weather conditions set up for several hours in the afternoon to early evening in which RHs dip to only ~10%, and SW-W gusts range from 40 to perhaps 45-50 MPH. As such, the latest SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook has introduced an "extreme" delineation just to our W, and wouldn't be surprised to see that expanded eastward a few counties in the outlook update later this afternoon.

A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from noon through 7PM Tuesday across the full area, and a conversion to a Red Flag Warning will likely be needed later today. The end time may also need to be pushed back into the evening hours as critical criteria is still being met in the latest forecast grids as late as 10-11PM. Winds shift from SW to W late in the day on Tuesday, and we'll be coming off very warm temperatures, both factors of which will really delay the usual late day improvement.

Despite cooler temperatures and overall lighter winds, fire weather concerns are expected to persist into Wednesday with yet another day of at least near-critical conditions. Latest forecast calls for minimum RHs as low as 15-20%, and given another round of deep mixing, could see wind gusts reach 20-25 MPH. Wednesday looks to be more of a marginal day - relatively speaking...but coming off of the very dangerous day on Tuesday, worth noting that any fires that start on Tuesday and continue into Wednesday will still be difficult to fight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 455 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Near-record to record high temperatures are likely to be approached/broken at various points today through Tuesday for both Grand Island airport (records back to 1896) and Hastings airport (records back to 1908).

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST/Observed* Grand Island, NE (GRI) Feb. 16: 73 in 2017 / 1921 | 70

Feb. 17: 72 in 2017 | 78

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Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 16: 74 in 2017 | 69

Feb. 17: 74 in 1981 | 78

- RECORD WARM LOW/MIN TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 16: 38 in 2011 | 37

Feb. 17: 41 in 1981 | 43

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Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 16: 39 in 2011 | 38

Feb. 17: 37 in 1972 | 43

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Tuesday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ005>007- 017>019.