textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Light fog is expected overnight into this morning for much of the area. Visibilities may get as low as a half mile.

- There is a marginal to enhanced risk of severe storms this afternoon through tonight with some uncertainty in where and when storms will develop.

- The main threats with the storms today into tonight will be large hail up to around golf ball size, wind gusts up to 70 MPH, and a few isolated tornadoes.

- Frost and freeze conditions may develop Monday night through Friday night with Monday and Tuesday nights having the highest risk.

UPDATE

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2026

Northerly winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Light fog is developing due to the recent rainfall and cooling temperatures. Low temperatures overnight are expected to cool into the mid 30s to low 50s. Additional showers may develop overnight into Sunday morning. Heavier showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west of the area Sunday morning and move northeastward. There is some uncertainty in regards to thunderstorm development (when and where it will develop) from the afternoon through the evening into the overnight hours tonight. After the initial round of convection today, there will likely be more storm development in more than 1 round that will move through the area. There are some differences among the models as to where and when these rounds of convection will develop. There is a risk of severe storms today into tonight given fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and atmospheric lift. There is a marginal to enhanced risk of severe storms per the Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook with the highest risk to the south. The main threats with these storms will be large hail up to golf ball size, wind gusts up to 70 MPH, and a few isolated tornadoes. There is a chance (20% - 30%) with the multiple rounds of convection and cloud cover that the atmosphere will not have enough time to get unstable enough for widespread severe weather. High temperatures today will range from the low 50s to the low 70s. Showers and storms will likely be across at least a portion of the forecast area tonight (up to a 85% to 90% chance). Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the 40s and 50s.

There continue to be various chances of showers and thunderstorms across at least a portion of the forecast area each day Monday through Friday. High temperatures will generally be in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night will mostly be in the 30s with some upper 20s on Tuesday night with a risk of frost and freeze developing. Low temperatures for the rest of the week will generally be in the 30s and 40s with some areas at risk for frost and possibly freeze in isolated locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A sharp frontal zone is currently bisecting the area from SW to NE...with temperatures on the NW side actually falling into the 40s...whereas areas that remain ahead of the front have warmed into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The frontal zone is serving as a focus for strong the severe thunderstorms this afternoon, and expect this threat to continue for much of the evening, mainly for areas E and S of Hastings. Instability falls off rather quickly N of Hwy 6 E of Hastings, so while a strong storm with small to maybe marginally severe hail (0.5-1." in diameter) can't be ruled out, and primary severe threat will be S of Hwy 6 and near/E of Hwy 281 where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9PM this evening. These areas have destabilized considerably more in a pocket of recent clearing, as evident by HJH shooting up to 75F degrees. This is supporting around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which combined with effective deep layer shear of 40-50kt, is more than enough CAPE/shear for supercells. Mid level lapse rates are steep, but not crazy steep, so think quarter to perhaps golf ball hail is the main threat. Can't rule out some localized damaging wind with any RFDs as well as a brief tornado given presence of a boundary and ample 0-3km CAPE. Expect most of the organized convection to clear the forecast area to the E/SE by around 8-9PM, leaving damp & dreary conditions through the overnight. Will need to watch for some dense fog potential late overnight into Sunday morning as winds back more towards the E (upslope) amidst already high boundary layer moisture left over by today's rain.

Focus then turns to our next round of convection and severe weather potential on Sunday. Unfortunately, models still remain quite varied in their solutions on how the day ultimately pan's out, specifically with regards to the coverage, intensity, and timing of initially elevated convection late morning into early afternoon...and how that impacts destabilization potential later on in the day. Still too much uncertainty to put too much stock into one single model, but general trends on the last two runs of the HREF suggest a consensus may be forming. It roughly supports the last couple runs of the HRRR in that there will be increasing elevated convection that develops from SW Nebraska into north central KS during the morning hours, that then shifts NE across the area during the bulk of the daytime hours. This round could have a non-zero severe potential with it particularly on the S/SE flank and as it begins to interact with increasing instability. This would be roughly the same areas experiencing severe weather today, with large hail again the primary threat. The exact timing of this first round will be absolutely critical to fine tuning the severe threat both during the day, and with any subsequent rounds during the evening and/or overnight.

Speaking of which...appears a second round may develop W/SW of the forecast area during the late afternoon and early evening, then quickly move E/NE during the mid-late evening and overnight. This is the round the some of the hi-res guidance really pegs as the potential high-end severe threat. Now...will this actually be for our area (mainly KS zones), or will the main threat remain just SW/S of the area due to stabilizing effects from the first round? That's the big question at this point. Conceptually speaking and from personal experience these setup's usual favor more S than N than what one thinks 24+ hours out...but if the morning activity isn't very widespread or intense, the effective warm front could trend further N. Regardless of where the boundary sets up, storms along it will be perfectly situated in a volatile combination of instability and shear, and the strongest forcing/height falls may lag just enough to preclude more widespread coverage - thus leading to better potential for discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will be possible with any supercells in this area between 21Z-03Z. After 03Z, would expect some upscale growth into lines and/or clusters as forcing increases along with the low level jet. As such, a large hail and damaging wind threat (maybe a brief tornado) could continue well into the overnight...again favoring areas along/S of the state line the most.

The upper low will pivot E/NE across the NE/SD border area on Monday and continue a shower/weak thunderstorm threat throughout the daytime, esp. for areas N/NE of the Tri-Cities. Monday will not really be any more pleasant than the weekend given increasingly strong NW winds and chilly highs in the 50s to lower 60s.

The main story for the rest of the week will be chilly temperatures and nearly nightly frost/freeze concerns for a good chunk of the forecast area. Obviously, NW zones will be at most risk for actual freezing temperatures, but frosty conditions could easily spread in the the Tri-Cities, esp. Wed & Fri AMs

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings may improve a little late this morning into the afternoon but are expected to remain below VFR. Ceilings will then decrease to IFR by 00z. Visibilities will generally improve by late this morning without the presence of heavy convection. Showers and possibly thunderstorms will impact the terminals this morning. Another round of heavier showers and thunderstorms may impact the area late this morning into this afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms is expected beginning around 05z. Northeast winds will become more easterly by 18z then will become more variable.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.