textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Overnight and morning showers and thunderstorms expected across portions of the area. Some storms may be strong to marginally severe.

- Rain and storms will continue to develop from the afternoon into the overnight hours. The highest chance of rain is during the evening and overnight hours (60% to 90% chance).

- Severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and flooding will be possible this afternoon into tonight.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the area from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM Sunday.

- Total rainfall amounts today through Sunday of 1 to 5 inches are expected with 2 to 5 inches in the Flood Watch.

UPDATE

Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Currently across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas temperatures are in the 50s and 60s with light, mostly easterly winds. Showers are beginning to develop (mainly across north central Kansas and the Nebraska counties south of I- 80). This activity is expected to continue, expand in coverage, and intensify with thunderstorms developing (some possibly strong to marginally severe). The threats with the strongest storms will be hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 MPH. These showers and storms may move north of I-80 close to/after sunrise.

Showers and storms will continue into the morning hours and will likely move/expand further north and east. While widespread severe storms are not expected this morning, a few storms may become strong to marginally severe. Storms will likely still be ongoing this afternoon and may intensify and expand in coverage as the atmosphere destabilizes. CAPE values are expected to be over 3,000 J/kg in areas that receive the most sunlight. 0 to 6 km wind shear will be over 50 knots areawide this afternoon. However, mid-level lapse rates may be hindered this afternoon by cloud cover and ongoing convection. Models differ on placement of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight so it is difficult to pinpoint where storms will be at a particular time. It does appear as though the Nebraska counties in our forecast area will be more likely to be impacted by thunderstorms this afternoon than the north central Kansas counties. The vast majority of the forecast area by/around 10 PM will likely either be getting rain and/or storms. Rain and storm chances at 10 PM range from around 60% to 90%. Some models indicate another cluster/line of storms moving in from the west into north central Kansas and southern Nebraska this evening. The rain and storms are expected to continue through most, if not all, of the overnight hours. An MCS may develop late this evening into the overnight hours and push through the area.

Large hail up to around golf ball size, wind gusts up to around 70 MPH, isolated tornadoes, and flooding will all be possible. The wind and flooding threats will increase later this evening into tonight. Much of the forecast area is in a Flood Watch from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM Sunday. Total rain amounts today through Sunday are expected to range from 1 to 5 inches across the whole area with amounts of 2 to 5 inches in the Flood Watch. Rain will continue moving eastward Sunday morning with more showers and storms possibly moving into western portions of the area Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms on Sunday have the potential to become strong to marginally severe with hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 MPH depending on how destabilized the atmosphere becomes after the storms from tonight. High temperatures both today and Sunday are expected to mostly be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This is an active forecast, primarily within the first 2-3 days. Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms were not well forecast, with some models hinting at it early today. However, as the day has evolved, models persist with this activity, but even with radar as an initial condition, high-res models are struggling with areal coverage. Confidence in the next 48 hours has evolved throughout the day today, but there remains uncertainty in how each round of convection will impact the next.

Current expectations for the evolution of the next 48 hours.

Round 1: Ongoing Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon are expected to eventually diminish and move east southeast tapering a bit by the evening hours for much of south central Nebraska. There is a signal of some off and on scattered storms persisting in north central Kansas into the evening and early overnight hours. The best instability remains off to the west of the area. This afternoon, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Later tonight, some marginally severe storms could develop with hail to the size of quarters.

Largely expect a lull in most of the activity during the overnight hours.

Round 2: This round is expected to begin just before sunrise on Saturday morning along or near the Highway 183 corridor. High-res Ensembles and even the EC Ensemble support this morning development. This activity will have slightly more instability to work with than Round 1 did. While widespread severe weather is not expected, some of the storms could be strong to severe. This activity will slowly move eastwards through out the day.

Expect a lull in activity after round 2 passes in the afternoon.

Round 3: This round is expected to develop in the High Plains of Nebraska and Kansas and track eastward aided by an upper disturbance. This activity continues to have the best ingredients to work with for the most part, and the primary concern for strong to severe thunderstorms. That being said, this round also may be impacted by the rounds before it, and that brings in some uncertainty. Round 2 may limit some of the ability for the atmosphere to recover along and north of I-80, and there has been subtle shifts in the guidance that is trending the primary severe threat along and south of the Nebraska/Kansas stateline. With round 3, the primary threat is wind as a line of storms develops to our west on the High Plains and tracks eastward into the evening and overnight hours. Severe winds up to 70 mph are possible. Hail up to golfball size is possible, but that best threat is along and west of Highway 183.

This third round has a lot of upper level support, and while the worst of the severe activity is along and south of the state line, severe storms are possible throughout the whole area. In addition to the strong storms, the repeated rounds of rain will increase the chance for flooding. Round 3 doesn't linger long, but various models and ensembles, indicate the potential for 2-3 inches of rain with some locally higher amounts possible. Have joined neighbors and issued a Flood Watch. Did not initially include Valley and Greeley Counties, but could see them being added in the next update.

Sunday: Additional Thunderstorms are possible Sunday, these could be strong to severe as well, but have focused primarily on today and Saturday for this forecast.

Workweek: The remainder of the forecast is active as the Central Plains sits under zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, allowing each weak disturbance to impact the region. Temperatures generally in the 70s for the week, which is below the 80+ degree normals we usually see in the second half of June.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 0108 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the early morning hours, with KEAR/KGRI residing on the northern fridge of a midlevel cloud layer and variable winds across the area. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop in the area around mid morning, eventually expanding into a more broad thunderstorm cluster late morning. While these early storms are anticipated to impact the terminals, their scattered nature causes lower confidence in their exact location, so included this within a PROB30 group. As these showers/storms congeal into a cluster, MVFR ceilings are expected, with periods of MVFR visibilities also possible within the stronger rain bands.

This thunderstorm cluster is expected to clear out of the area in the afternoon/evening. Confidence is higher that KEAR will experience a 2 hour gap between thunderstorm activity around 22Z, however the exact timing of this break is still uncertain. While KGRI is also expected to see some sort of break, the timing and length of this break is more uncertain, hence the lack of presence in the TAF.

Another batch of strong, possibly severe, thunderstorms are likely to move into the area in the evening/overnight hours. This threat was included in a PROB30 group due to uncertainty in storm coverage, severity, and timing. Hail, strong winds, and IFR visibilities also can not be ruled out with these storms, although is too uncertain to include at this time.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087. KS...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for KSZ007-019.