textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain/sprinkles possible (10-30%) with a cold front tonight. Best chances will be Tri-Cities N and E.

- Initial surge of high winds possible overnight, and the High Wind Warning start time was moved up to Midnight.

- Damaging winds (gusts 55-70 MPH) likely Thursday and a High Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM. Strongest winds along and north of I-80. These strong winds may also lead to areas of blowing dust and reduced visibilities.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns also expected Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for our north central Kansas counties from 10 AM to 6 PM Thursday.

- Mostly dry and mild through the remainder of the forecast period. In fact, there are some indications for very warm temperatures on or around Christmas Day and potentially continuing through the end of the calendar year.

UPDATE

Issued at 1000 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

-- HIGH WIND WARNING PUT INTO EFFECT "EARLY": Based on a combination of verified strong-to-severe wind gusts already occurring this evening over western/north central NE (likely driven in part by "mix down" from passing high-based showers), and also the HRRR depicting at least a brief surge of potentially 50-60 MPH gusts racing southward across our CWA mainly 12-4 AM with the initial frontal surge, have opted to move up the "official start time" of our High Wind Warning from 6 AM to Midnight/12 AM.

- As outlined in the Warning statement itself, we are looking at TWO SEPARATE periods of severe wind potential...the first the aforementioned initial/brief surge mainly 12-4 AM...then a lull...and then the "main event" that the Warning was initially issued for starting primarily after 8 AM and persisting well into the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A fairly thick shield of cirrus clouds can be streaming across the local area this afternoon. This cloud shield has help to hold down afternoon temperatures a few degrees from the previous couple of afternoons, with most locations in the mid 50s to around 60 as of 3 PM today. A few light returns on radar can be seen across the sandhills this afternoon, but likely nothing is reaching the ground, with any chance for precip coming along a cold front that will cross the local area this evening/late tonight.

For tonight, expect the aforementioned cold front to rapidly cross the state of Nebraska from north to south between roughly 9 PM and Midnight. While there could be some very light precip (light rain or sprinkles) along this front, the focus of this precip will be across the eastern third of the state, with only a hundredth or two of precip accumulation possible from roughly the Tri-Cities and to the northeast - with many locations likely not expected to see any precip. The bigger impact from this front will the a surge in northwesterly winds overnight, which could gust 40 to 55 MPH for a few hours around midnight, before increasing further during the morning hours Thursday.

Latest model guidance continues to indicate a widespread wind gust potential of 50-60 KT during the morning through early afternoon hours across the entire forecast area, with the highest values focuses across south central Nebraska just north of I-80. With (at least) some partial sunshine also expected, the wind gust potential could also be aided by mixing to around 800mb, increasing likelihood very strong winds/gusts. As a result, had enough confidence to increase wind gust potential to 70 MPH across the area tomorrow, with winds not expected to decrease significantly until the late afternoon/early evening hours. Given the strong winds, also kept the mention for the potential for some blowing dust, especially considering the lack of snow cover and how dry we have been lately.

In addition to the winds and blowing dust, anther concern for Thursday is the potential for dangerous fire weather conditions. While minimum relative humidity values aren't quite as low as we typically like to see, given the strong winds and RH values at least "near" warning criteria, opted to pull the trigger for a Red Flag warning for our Kansas counties where temperatures will be the warmest and RH values will be the lowest from the late morning through afternoon hours.

Beyond tomorrow, temperatures should rebound fairly quickly on Friday as a warm front pushes across the area from the west with yet another (not as strong and dry) cold front moving across the area from the north Saturday. This cold front should hold temperatures down in the 40s over the upcoming weekend, with a return to 50s across the area by Monday as upper level ridging re-establishes itself across the plains and persists into the latter part of next week. This should result in a very mild Christmas week across the area with several models indicating temperatures could peak around Christmas day, with highs again climbing to near 60, or about 20-25 degrees above "typical" Christmas day temperatures across the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: -- General overview: Although confidence is relatively-high in VFR ceiling/visibility through the period (although there is potential for a low-VFR ceiling and/or sporadic visibility reduction in blowing dust), there are plenty of wind-related concerns to go around...including very strong surface winds and also several hours of fairly strong low level wind shear (LLWS) prior to the onset of the strongest winds. The unusually large number of FM groups in latest TAFs are almost entirely reflective of these wind concerns.

-- Wind details: - Surface winds: Moderately strong to very strong winds will mark the majority of the period. Within the first hour of the period (06-07Z), an initial/brief "surge" of north-northwesterly winds should arrive (gusts 35+ KT likely). Through much of the remainder of the early morning hours speeds will back down with northwesterly gusts peaking closer to 25KT. However, once daytime mixing commences, rather intense northwest winds will prevail especially 15-22Z with sustained speeds commonly at least 30-35KT/gusts commonly 40-50KT. By late afternoon and especially into the evening, speeds will decrease...gradually at first (gusts at least 20-25KT still probably at 00Z)...but then sustained speeds dropping under 10KT by 03Z.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): Despite breezy to at least briefly-windy surface winds, will maintain LLWS groups through these first 15 hours given the presence of very strong north-northwest winds commonly 45-55KT within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL...resulting in a solid 30-35+KT of shear magnitude between the surface and this level. Once daytime mixing kicks in and surface speeds increase, LLWS concerns will wane. There could be some marginal LLWS again toward evening as surface winds decrease, but LLWS magnitude appears closer to 25KT than the TAF-inclusion-criteria of 30+KT.

-- Possible (but not considered likely) ceiling/visibility concerns: - Ceiling: The first half of the period will feature quite a bit of mid- high level clouds (ceiling mainly near/above 9K ft. AGL). However a lower VFR-ceiling perhaps closer to 4-5K ft. AGL could materialize at times. MVFR is not currently anticipated.

- Visibility: Although confidence in occurrence is not overly-high (especially given it will likely be more localized versus widespread), at least sporadic visibility reduction in blowing dust cannot be ruled out. Previous TAFS hinted at this potential with "6SM BLDU" groups...and have maintained this in current TAFS focused 15-22Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ005>007- 017>019. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ005>007-017>019.