textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

* Showers and storms expected overnight (some may become strong to severe). There is some uncertainty in coverage.

* There is low potential (around 20% to 30% chance) for fog development overnight into the morning. * Showers and storms are once again expected during the day today and tonight. Some of these storms may be strong to severe.

* Storm threats include wind gusts up to around 60 MPH, hail up to around quarter size, and flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Currently watching storms approaching south central and central Nebraska from the west. Some scattered storms are developing and moving across north central Kansas. There is some uncertainty if the storms to our west will maintain their strength and how far east they will get before they move northward. If the storms do maintain their strength and make it into western portions of the forecast area, some storms may be strong to severe. Wind gusts up to around 60 MPH would be the main threat, although hail up to around quarter size cannot be ruled out. Flash flooding will also be a threat if storms move over areas that received a lot of rain from the past 24 hours. Low temperatures overnight are expected to be in the 60s and 70s. There is potential for fog overnight in areas that clear out (or mostly clear out) and are not experiencing rain and storms. At this time, that potential is low (around 20% to 30%) but will continue to monitor.

There may be some storms across portions of the area today but not expecting widespread storms but cannot rule them out either. There is uncertainty in the placement of showers and storms today and it may depend on the placement of storms overnight. Showers and storms are once again expected tonight with the highest chances (around 50% to near 80%) in north central Kansas. Storms today and tonight will once again have the potential to become strong to severe. Large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding will be the main threats. These storms will be enhanced by a cold front moving through the area today and a passing shortwave trough. High temperatures today will be in the low 80s to low/mid 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 445 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES: - By far the biggest uncertainties involve trying to decipher the "exact" details of thunderstorm chances/limited severe potential these next few nights. While nothing is "set in stone", we at least have "likely" chances/PoPs (60+%) in place for portions of our CWA both nights.

- Latest temperature forecast trends: As has been discussed for a few days here, high temps continue to creep upward for Sunday- Monday...with any cooler 70s no longer anticipated. That being said, current indications now point to Wed-Thurs being our next best chance of highs only reaching the 70s...in the wake of a cold front tentatively slated for Tuesday night.

- Big picture overview of the upper air pattern through the next week: As is typical of a summer weather pattern that features semi-regular rain chances and temperatures reasonably close to "normal" most days, our region will spend the entire time along the general interface between a large- scale high/ridge centered off to our southeast-through- southwest...and the primary upper jet core centered at least slightly to our north. However, the spatial orientation of our upper flow will evolve from mainly southwesterly these next 24 hours (upper high centered over mainly AR/LA/MS)...to more zonal/westerly Sun-Tues (as the upper high retrogrades back west over the Southern Plains...to finally more northwesterly Wed-Fri as the high sets up shop even farther west closer to the Four Corners (and a large-scale trough/low becomes more established over the eastern United States.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Fri Aug. 21): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM: In the wake of widespread overnight convection that fortunately produced very minimal severe weather (but dropped as much as 2-3" of beneficial rain along a narrow axis from roughly Alma- Hastings), this morning featured lingering-but-gradually- departing showers, while this afternoon has been dry for the vast majority of our CWA. Aloft, water vapor imagery and short term model data clearly reveal a well-defined disturbance (actually a remnant mesoscale convective vortex/MCV) departing to our east over IA, while we briefly reside "in between" disturbances...with the next one gradually approaching out of CO.

While skies were mostly cloudy most all areas earlier in the day, sunshine has gradually become more prevalent in our western half, while partly/mostly cloudy skies linger longer in our east. Despite the clouds, the high temperature forecast is at least mostly on track...with the majority of our Nebraska CWA realizing highs in the low-mid 80s, and more so upper 80s-low 90s in KS. Our extreme southeastern CWA (mainly Mitchell County KS) could make a late-day/early evening run at a 100+ heat index, but this is looking increasingly-unlikely with time). Winds are very light due to a weak pressure gradient.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: In short, the next/aforementioned upper wave currently over CO gradually approaches/invades our CWA...albeit arriving a bit later than last night's disturbance. As a result, the vast majority of our CWA likely remains thunderstorm-free through at least 1 AM (perhaps a few spotty storms try brushing into our extreme southeast counties such as Mitchell/Jewell/Thayer a bit earlier in the night?). Beyond 1 AM, higher-res models such as HRRR (which by the way has been performing quite well the last few days), brings at least scattered storms...and possibly at least a small-scale/organized cluster...into our CWA from west- southwest to east-northeast. Like last night, fairly weak deep layer shear will be a limiting factor working against much of a severe threat, but if a cold pool/organized outflow surge can get going, especially some counties along/south of I-80 could see a blast of strong to marginally-severe winds...mainly 50-60 MPH, along with perhaps a quick 1-2" of rain.

Otherwise tonight, low temps similar to last night (mainly mid 60s-low 70s, and winds will remain very light. One thing NOT currently in our official forecast (but bears watching) is the possibility for fog development...with the latest HRRR runs suggesting some fog especially in our far northeastern counties where any convection/related outflow would be weakest and/or last to arrive (something to watch).

- SATURDAY DAYTIME: In many ways very similar to how today evolved. However, given that the upper disturbance will be a bit slower to depart versus today, the morning hours will likely feature a bit greater coverage of showers/a few weak storms compared to today...possibly even lingering into early-afternoon especially in our far eastern CWA. However, like today, the vast majority of our CWA is looking at a dry afternoon with gradually- diminishing clouds. High temperatures are aimed very similar to today...again mainly 80s in Nebraska, and low-mid 90s more favored in Kansas. For one final day, our extreme southeast (mainly Mitchell County) could see 100+ heat index, but should fall short of Advisory criteria. There will be a touch more breeze than today, but only around 10 MPH out of the north- northeast.

- SATURDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: You know this routine by now: following a mainly dry evening, the next upper disturbance and associated thunderstorm chances arrive mainly post-midnight. Latest HRRR is actually fairly aggressive in bringing one complex of storms southeastward into our far western CWA< while another one rides up into our southern zones from the south-southwest...potentially merging together roughly along the state line. These details could of course yet change, but again we'll be looking at a Marginal Risk of severe...mainly for winds up to ~ 60 MPH, along with perhaps some localized/nuisance flooding from 1-2" of rain. No matter, rain/thunderstorm chances are certainly higher over the southern half of our CWA than the north half (and have trended southward in the last 24 hours). Low temps mainly low-mid 60s.

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: Although the morning will surely feature some lingering showers/weak storms...and the overnight could again bring at least limited activity...this OVERALL looks like a drier 24 hours as our flow aloft starts to transition to more west- northwesterly. High temps have nudged up a bit, with the vast majority of our CWA aimed low-mid 80s (our KS zones finally shake the hotter 90s/100s of preceding days). Sunday night low temps also slightly cooler...with more in the way of low 60s most places.

- MONDAY-TUESDAY: MOST of these 48 hours look mostly dry, but we'll have to watch Tues night for perhaps our next best shot at rain/thunderstorms as an upper wave passing to our north sends a cold front southward through our region. Ahead of this front, Mon-Tues will be progressively warmer, with highs now aimed mainly mid 80s on Monday, and upper 80s-mid 90s on Tuesday (warmest in KS)...with this fairly clearly looking like the warmest day of the week.

- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: While there will be intermittent/still-highly-uncertain rain and thunderstorm chances, the overall-more-confident signal at this time range is for a decent little cool-down in the wake of Tuesday night's frontal passage. In fact, both Wed-Thurs are currently looking like highs only upper 70s-mid 80s at most...with Friday then very preliminary showing a slight -warm up to mainly low-mid 80s most areas and upper 80s-low 90s far south-southwest.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Rest of today: Have some patches of SCT-BKN stratocu with bases in the MVFR range this afternoon, probably moreso for GRI than EAR. Out of this stratocu could come an isolated shower/weak storm during the late afternoon hours. Kept the PROB30 group going for GRI, but took out of EAR given ensembles suggesting the threat remaining mostly NE-E of there. Winds will be light out of the NW to NNE.

Tonight-Sun AM: Latest guidance continues to suggest the greatest chances for convection this period will remain off to the S, with probably just some mid to high cloud blowoff from this activity. The mid/high clouds could dissipate just in time around dawn Sun AM to allow for some fog. Hinted at this with a 5SM group beginning around 11Z, but this is pretty low confidence. Brief period of MVFR CIGs also possible very late in the period - late Sun AM - from more stratocu, but will let later forecasts refine this and kept as SCT020 for now.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.