textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- The combination of gusty winds and low humidity will create near critical fire weather conditions today across north central Kansas and west of the Tri-Cities area in Nebraska.

- Rain and storm chances increase beginning Friday evening with the highest chances Saturday evening and overnight (65% to 95% chance).

- There is a threat of severe storms and heavy rainfall Saturday into Saturday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are currently elevated mostly out of the south. Winds in some locations are gusting up to around 20 to 25 knots due to a low-level jet moving over the area. Winds will transition to the southwest to northwest by sunrise as a cold front begins to move into the area today. Winds will mostly be out of the northwest to north today with gusts increasing up to around 35 to 45 MPH. The highest wind gusts will be north of Interstate 80. The lowest wind gusts of around 20 to 30 MPH will be in north central Kansas. Despite the arrival of the cold front, temperatures today are expected to warm up into the 80s and 90s. Minimum humidity values of 15% to around 30% are expected today with the lowest values of 15% to 20% across north central Kansas and west of the Tri-Cities area in Nebraska. This will create near critical fire weather conditions today. The hindering factor in the fire weather threat is recent rainfall which has resulted in a greenup of fuels.

Beyond today, there will be increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday evening (up to 30% chance). The highest chances will be Saturday evening and night (65% to 95% chance). The threat for severe storms Saturday into Saturday night continues to be a concern with high wind shear and fairly high CAPE along with a shortwave passing overhead. Dewpoints will be in the 60s which will allow for heavy rain/flooding potential. Details on exact threats and timing remain uncertain at this point.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No truly major changes to speak of, as the items listed in Key Messages above continue to ring true.

- Officially, our forecast remains completely void of any mentionable rain chances (meaning chances/PoPs less than 15%) through Friday afternoon. That being said, we cannot rule out later forecast possibly introducing some chances for a few light showers/sprinkles especially late Wed night-Thurs AM.

- In the very minor forecast change department, high temps for Saturday- Monday have nudged down a few degrees from previous.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. June 23): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 230 PM: By most folks' standards, today has simply been a seasonably- pleasant mid-June day. Under generally partly cloudy skies (a fair amount of passing high level cirrus), high temps are on track to top out between 82-90 degrees in most places...overall- coolest in our eastern NE counties and overall-warmest in our extreme southwestern counties (Furnas/Phillips/Rooks) which are most favored to reach/slightly exceed 90. Humidity levels are also fairly low, owing to dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Winds have thus far today been a minimal concern, with sustained speeds in most places near-to- below 10 MPH. However, speeds through the rest of the afternoon will gradually pick up a bit and become more established from the south, with especially our northern/western counties seeing gusts 20+ MPH by evening.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm that our Central Plains region resides under northwesterly flow, directed between a potent shortwave trough rotating through the Great Lakes/eastern Midwest...and an expansive ridge/high centered well off the southern CA coast.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: A dry forecast continues, with any stronger/severe storms focusing off to our south (southern KS) and/or east (mainly northern/eastern IA). A few sprinkles/light showers could TRY clipping the extreme northern/northeast fringes of our CWA late tonight along the far southern edges of lift associated with a shortwave trough diving out of the Dakotas toward IA, but this meager precip should stay slightly to our north/northeast. The main story overnight will be increasing southerly and eventually southwesterly winds...in response to a surface low pressure system deepening to around 990 millibars as it tracks from the WY/NE border area early this evening...to east-central/southeast NE by sunrise. In response, our winds tonight will ramp up to sustained speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-30+ MPH. The increasing winds and low-level warm air advection makes low temps a little tricky, as many places will probably bottom out pre-midnight before steadying or even rising a few degrees later in the night. No matter what, the majority of our CWA will see lows hold up 10+ degrees warmer than last night...with lows aimed from mid-upper 60s in most places...to low 70s in our south (especially KS).

- WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Although not as hot as it once looked, this will still be the warmest day of the next week, and quite likely also the windiest. Aloft, the aforementioned upper wave will track east- southeast into the Midwest (likely prompting widespread severe storms especially over IL/IN), while back here out west behind that system we'll remain dry under mostly sunny skies. High temps were changed very little...ranging from mid-upper 80s in most of our Nebraska counties...to low-mid 90s counties mainly along/south of the KS border. As surface low pressure departs east, a seasonably-strong cold front (especially in terms of winds...less so temps) will cross our CWA during the morning, with most of the day featuring sustained northwesterly speeds 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-45 MPH. The overall-strongest speeds (gusts 40-45 MPH) will target counties mainly north of I-80, with the overall "lightest" winds in our KS counties (see separate Fire Weather Section below for more on near-critical fire weather concerns).

Wednesday evening-overnight, winds will steadily decrease in the evening with sustained speeds at/under 10 MPH by around 11 PM, but remaining northerly through the night. We continue with a dry forecast, but various models are increasingly suggestive that we might need to consider adding some low chances for light showers and/or sprinkles post-midnight to especially our northern counties due to some lift from upper jet dynamics and mid-level frontogenesis. Temp-wise, lows about 10 degrees cooler than tonight...ranging from mid 50s north to low 60s south.

- THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: Our dry forecast continues for now, but the same possible chance for light showers/sprinkles mentioned for late Wed night could linger through much of Thursday AM especially in our eastern counties. Even so, the vast majority of these 36 hours will surely be dry as we remain under benign northwesterly flow aloft. Breezes Thursday will remain out of the north-northwest but not nearly as strong as Wednesday. High temps will be roughly 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday (mainly upper 70s-low 80s). On Friday, winds flip back around to southerly and become a bit breezy...aiding another jump in high temps (at least 5-8 degrees warmer than Wed) with highs mainly mid-upper 80s.

- FRIDAY EVENING-SUNDAY (the weekend): Not going to attempt to break down this time frame in super- great detail, but as previously covered there is gradually increasing concern for a severe thunderstorm/localized flooding threat especially for Saturday afternoon-night. SPC introduced a Day 5 "Slight Risk equivalent" to our entire CWA on this morning's outlook...which is also supported by CSU machine- learning probs.

Any convection Friday night-Sat AM could perhaps be strong to marginally- severe as low-level moisture and instability starts to return northward, but it will probably be fairly scattered in coverage. However, more widespread convection is probable Saturday afternoon-overnight as a low- amplitude upper wave enters the Plains from the west, accompanied by an eastward-tracking surface low and likely a strong southerly low-level jet. This is still beyond the scope of any higher-res models to be sure, but latest ECMWF/GFS clearly support a decent combo of at least 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE (instability) and at least 30-40KT of deep layer wind shear (supportive of supercells at least initially). Dewpoints well into the 60s convey heavy rain/flooding potential as well. Whatever happens Saturday night (in terms of how widespread storms are) will probably have at least some bearing on Sunday, as although the ECMWF (more so than the GFS) keeps some healthy instability around, both models usher a weak cold front through our CWA...which should in theory shunt any higher- end severe storm chances to our south. Again though, it's just too early for many details at this still Day 4-5 range...and there is still time for severe storm concerns to ramp up more OR perhaps decrease a bit.

Temperature-wise, highs trended down very slightly from previous, but are aimed mostly mid-upper 80s Saturday...upper 70s-mid 80s Sunday.

- MONDAY-TUESDAY: We remain under west-northwesterly flow aloft, with passing weak disturbances bringing continued intermittent/mainly isolated- to-scattered rain and thunderstorm chances. However, instability currently appears markedly lower than the weekend and thus more muted severe potential. High temps currently aimed mainly upper 70s-low 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry, VFR conditions throughout this forecast period. Low-level wind shear is expected tonight as strong southerly winds reside under a developing southerly low-level jet around 1000ft until around 11/12Z for KEAR/KGRI respectively. Surface winds will rotate clockwise with the passage of a surface cold front, becoming more northerly by 13/14Z. Wind gusts around 30 kts will be possible Wednesday afternoon behind this cold front. Winds will finally weaken around sunset, as a midlevel cloud layer moves in.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Regarding WEDNESDAY near-critical fire weather conditions: First of all and most importantly, we have deemed grasses/vegetation across our entire CWA to be "green enough" (in some far western areas JUST green enough) to NOT SUPPORT truly widespread wildfire growth/spread. As a result, we have NO Fire Weather Watches/Warnings posted for Wednesday.

That being said, the meteorological combination of moderately- strong northwest winds and seasonably-low relative humidity (RH) does make the Wednesday wildfire threat higher-than-average by mid-June standards, and we are officially calling it near- critical for our area. More specifically, nearly our entire CWA will see the combination of the following for several hours from mid-late morning through early evening: - 1) Northwest winds gusting at least 30-45 MPH (overall- strongest counties north of I-80) - 2) Relative humidity as low as 15-25% (overall-lowest in our KS counties along with far western Nebraska counties such as Dawson/Gosper/Furnas/Harlan.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.