textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Valley and Greeley counties this afternoon until 7PM for critical fire weather conditions.

- Widespread near-crtitcial to critical fire weather conditions are possible to return Monday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 12p-9PM for all of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska counties south and east of a line from Kearney to Merrick counties.

- High temperatures will range between the 70s and 80s through Thursday with temperatures dropping to mainly the 50s and 60s over the weekend.

- Scattered shower and storm chances return Tuesday evening (20-50%), Wednesday (20-40%) as well as Friday night (30-40%).

UPDATE

Issued at 842 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

With wind/relative humidity conditions improving this evening, allowed the Red Flag Warning for Valley and Greeley to expire on time this evening. Looking ahead to Monday, after making some overall minor adjustments to things, decided to go ahead and upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which runs from noon to 9PM. That end time may end up being too generous, will see how things trend. Did not expand the area further northwest at this point...models continue to show that while afternoon relative humidity values drop into the 10-15 percent range, there may be a relative lull in wind speeds/gusts compared to central and southeastern areas. Again...will see how models trend overnight...it wouldn't take much of a bump up to push the need to expand.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

This afternoon:

Though the southeast winds this afternoon are not as strong as they were overnight and this morning, a few northern and eastern portions of the area may still see some residual 25-30MPH wind gusts. With temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s today, RH values have fallen as low as 15-20% for the northwest half of the area. Near Critical fire weather conditions have set up across Nebraska areas north of I-80 including portions Nebraska west of HWY-183. The slightly gustier winds across Valley and Greeley counties (occasionally gusts as high as 25-30MPH) will meet critical conditions. As result, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7PM tonight for those counties.

Monday:

Even drier conditions are expected to develop Monday as dewpoints fall to the 20s and 30s. Afternoon temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 80s will bring RH values down to as low as 10-20% areawide. Returning southwest winds for Monday afternoon will blow stronger than today (gusts as high as 20-30MPH). As result, widespread near-critical fire weather conditions will redevelop area wide. The worst of the conditions (strongest wind winds gusts) will settle across the southeast 2/3rds of the area. As result, a fire weather watch between 12PM and 9PM was issued this forecast cycle to include all of our north central Kansas counties as well as south central nebraska counties south and east of a line from Kearney to Merrick counties. It is likely that the evening shift today will look to upgrade the Watch if not just a portion of the area over to a Red Flag Warning later this evening/tonight.

Tuesday:

Though temperatures may fall a few degrees for Tuesday (upper 70s to mid 80s), dewpoints should retain in the upper 30s and 40s. Thus afternoon RH values are likely to still drop to critical levels 15- 20% across the southwest half of the area and below 30% across the remainder of the area. The main factor that will determine if critical fire weather conditions will be met cross a few places will be the winds. Currently, south to easterly winds Tuesday afternoon are favored to gust as high as 15-30MPH, with the strongest gusts concentrated along areas near and south of the state line. Widespread near-critical fire weather conditions seem locked in, though only a few north central Kansas and a few far south central Nebraska areas may have the potential to actually observe critical conditions. A fire weather watch for southern portions of the area may be considered (not guaranteed) either tonight or during the day Monday.

Wednesday & Beyond:

Cooler temperatures (besides Thursday) may keep fire weather concerns somewhat limited across the rest of the week. A few scattered areas of near-critical concerns may materialize each day. The next and best potential for critical fire weather thresholds being met will be Thursday as highs briefly climb back up to the 80s. Though winds look to be gusty enough to support conditions at first glance, a few forecast elements may change between now and then that could impact the coverage of critical fire weather conditions.

-- NOTE: - NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period...with any cloud cover passing through expected to remain in the mid-upper levels. Expecting overall light winds through the overnight hours, current winds are generally south- southeasterly...potentially turning more variable later tonight-early Mon AM. Through the daytime hours Monday, expecting more westerly winds to develop...with afternoon gusts near 25-30 MPH not out of the question...with winds then turning northwesterly for the final few hours of the period thanks to a passing frontal boundary.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ048-049-062>064-074>077-084>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.