textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers this morning into this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into tonight. There is a 20% or less chance some of the storms may become marginally severe.

- Rain and storm chances increase on Saturday and especially Saturday night (up to near 100% chance). Heavy rain and localized flooding are possible.

- There is an enhanced risk of severe storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes are possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Temperatures across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are currently in the 50s and 60s with light winds. Light rain showers may initially develop across mainly northern portions of the forecast area (north of I-80) this morning and become more widespread across the rest of the area this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may develop (15% to 25% chance) late this afternoon into this evening. There is also up to around a 30% chance of storms developing late tonight across portions of the area. There is a low chance (20% or less) that some of these storms may reach marginally severe levels (up to quarter size hail). High temperatures today will be in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and 60s.

Some rain showers and storms may be ongoing Saturday morning as a shortwave moves overhead. Rain and storm chances will increase Saturday afternoon (up to around 60% chance). The highest chances for rain and storms will be Saturday evening and night (up to near 100% chance) as multiple shortwaves move over/near the area with a moist environment in place (dewpoints mostly in the 60s). There is an enhanced threat (level 3 out of 5 per the SPC Day 2 outlook) of severe storms Saturday into Saturday night. The main severe threat will be Saturday evening into Saturday night. The most likely time for severe storms will be 5 PM to 4 AM. However, isolated supercells may develop during the afternoon. An MCS is expected to develop and move across the area Saturday evening into Saturday night. Large hail (up to around golf ball size), wind gusts (up to around 60 MPH), and isolated tornadoes will be possible initially (late afternoon into the early evening hours). There is a 20% to 30% chance the hail could be larger than golf ball size (maybe approaching baseball size) during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The hail threat will decrease slightly as the storms develop into an MCS but the wind threat will increase (up to 70+ MPH). QLCS tornadoes may develop during the evening into the overnight hours. Heavy rainfall with these storms may lead to localized flash flooding. Rainfall amounts up to 2 to 4+ inches are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Tonight and Friday....

With the last of this morning's spotty showers now gone from the area, the rest of the afternoon and night will be precipitation free. In addition, clearing skies with light to calm winds will allow overnight temperatures to fall to as low as the mid 50 to lower 60s tonight. Aloft, the upper level jet rests right overhead with broad ridging across the western CONUS and broad troughing across the eastern CONUS. The help of an upstream Pacific shortwave trough and the strengthening western U.S. ridge will later nudge the jet east. This Pacific trough will be responsible for some severe weather and potentially heavy rainfall implications later this week (Saturday night).

As for Friday, light southerly winds will reestablish at the surface. Highs, however, should not deviate much from today (low to mid 80s: a degree or two warmer from today). A few areas of showers and non-severe thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon as some moisture surges northward up from the south (15-25% chances across the area). The latest high resolution model guidance (HRRR/RAP/NAMNEST) does not pin point much in terms of precipitation amounts (<0.05"). These showers, though far stretching across the area, should be fairly small and more shorter-term lived and spotty in coverage (sort of like a more hear and there type of deal).

Saturday...

Similar temperatures Saturday (upper 70s to mid 80s highs) will be accompanied by slightly stronger southeasterly winds blowing between 10-15MPH and gusting up to 20-30MPH. the strongest winds will be concentrated to the west or across areas closer to the surface pressure falls (weak surface low forming over east CO and west KS). The main story, however, will be the potential for severe weather Saturday evening and night as well as the risk of heavy rainfall that could effect some hydro concerns. A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) now covers the full area Saturday night.

The aforementioned Pacific shortwave trough across the next 2 days will make a run over the Rockies and into the Central Plains Saturday afternoon. This disturbance should help initiate some afternoon and overnight storms, initially expected to form across the Nebraska sandhills region. These (potentially severe) storms would be steered east/southeastward and into the area by the evening to probably more likely overnight period. Conditions wise, up to 3,000J/kg of MUCAPE with 25-45kts of bulk shear should be favorable enough to help sustain these storms through the night. The primary hazards that will be possible will be for strong and potentially damaging gusty winds with areas of large hail possible in a few places. A tornado or two also can't be ruled out given what looks to be a favorable low-level shear (helicity) profile.

The other concern that may need to be monitored closely will be excessive rainfall for Saturday night. The cluster of storms that are expected to track across our forecast area will likely bring heavy rainfall rates as a southerly orientated moisture flux increases the precipitable water content (1.6-2.5" PWATs). Our forecast for precipitation amounts overnight Saturday currently projects at least 1" across the board with a fairly wide swath of 2- 3+" rainfall amounts placed right down the center of the area. For the Tri-Cities area, the NBM currently projects around a 95% chance for at least 1" of precipitation, around 80% chance for at least 2" and around 35% chance for 3+ inches. The WPC has additionally upgraded a majority of the area now into a Moderate level 3 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook (>40% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point). Due to the lack of consistent model trends so far, the desire to issue a flood watch this shift was forgone. If our current forecast continues to hold consistent, however, it is likely that we may need to include a considerable portion of the area into a Flood watch for Saturday night.

Sunday and Beyond....

Temperatures through the middle of next week look to remain somewhat stable. Highs are currently forecast to cool down to the 70s by Monday, with highs staying mainly in the 70s to low 80s through the middle of next week. The long range forecast model guidance (GFS/ECMWF) both appear to be hinting at a second shortwave disturbance passing through the area sometime Monday through Wednesday. This disturbance will likely bring yet another chance for a few storms in and out of the area. Confidence drops off substantially after Sunday as timing of any potential precipitation diverges between the models.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. Light and variable winds are expected tonight as a broad area of higher pressure sits over the area. Weak southerly flow will return during the daytime hours as this high moves off to the east. Winds will continue to back this evening, becoming more easterly by the end of the forecast period.

There is a chance of a few showers/thunderstorms in the area after 20Z, with a possibility of a couple severe thunderstorms.However, this threat was left out of the TAF due to the lower confidence in any of these storms actually impacting the terminals. Despite this thunderstorm uncertainty, lower ceilings (around 5000ft) will likely build into the area tomorrow evening/night.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.