textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will warm up nicely today after the morning fog dissipates. - Showers (and possibly some t-storms) become possible (20-60% chance) Thursday evening and are very likely on Friday (70-90% chance).

- Some rain could linger into Saturday, but the weekend should trend drier.

- The wet pattern continues with another good chance for rain late Sunday night through Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Stratus and fog remains entrenched over the northwestern third of the area, but has dissipated further east. Models indicate that this could expand back eastward a bit early this morning (and latest satellite hints at this as well). Fog and low stratus should then mix out late this morning into early afternoon, and southwesterly surface winds should help push temperatures into the 70s for most. A cold front will push into the area from the west, therefore western areas will likely end up on the cooler side, but portions of Kansas and SE Nebraska could make a run at 80 degrees! A few spotty showers and weak storms may develop near this front this evening, but this is favored to occur mainly southeast of the area.

A few models hint at fog potential again tonight, but the signal isn't nearly as strong or persistent as it was for tonight.

Thursday will be a touch cooler, but not unpleasant for late October. Dry conditions are expected through the day, but a few showers or weak t-storms could develop Thursday night ahead of an approaching shortwave. Areas east of Highway 281 are more favored for this.

The daytime on Friday won't be a "washout", but showers and thunderstorms are a good bet late in the afternoon through the evening and overnight. PoPs linger on Saturday (mainly early), but many global models still favor mostly dry conditions (good news for trick-or-treaters!).

Sunday should also remain quiet, but rain is likely again Sunday night into Monday as another system moves through the region. This may also usher in some stronger wind and cooler air (although not particularly cold or windy by November standards).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Some weak isentropic lift associated with a shortwave trough has helped maintain the low-level stratus layer across the area. As the upper-level jet progresses eastward, upper-level divergence will continue to support these overcast skies through the overnight hours. This cloud cover will limit afternoon highs to the 50s to low 60s. Furthermore, patchy drizzle and isolated showers are possible this afternoon through tonight. Along with these dreary conditions, fog is expected to develop tonight into tomorrow morning. Recent HREF and REFS guidance indicate roughly a 50-80% chance of visibilities falling below 1/2 mile tonight, primarly along and west of a line from Cambridge to Fullerton.

After this upper-level disturbance moves off, a weak upper-level ridge will build into the region Wednesday into Friday. This pattern will allow for some sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures to build back into the area, with highs in the 70s tomorrow and decreasing into the 60s to low 70s Thursday and Friday. However, rain chances reenter the forecast late Thursday evening through likely Saturday afternoon (though there is a low chance of lingering rain into Halloween evening) as a shortwave trough moves overhead.

However, the break from precipitation won't last long, as the larger-scale trough moves into the region Sunday into Monday. While there is some uncertainty on the exact timing and strength of this system, model guidance currently shows a Shift of Tails (SOT) value over 1 for some areas. This guidance indicates that at least 10% of model guidance is forecasting an event beyond local records; corresponding to approximately 10% of model guidance having at least 1 inch of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. Later forecasts will continue to monitor trends in the timing and rainfall accumulation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

EAR remains under low stratus (IFR ceilings) currently. This is building eastward and should reach GRI by around 12Z. For now, it appears that the lower visibilities should remain to the north and west of GRI/EAR.

Ceilings improve from east to west this morning into the afternoon. GRI is favored to return to MVFR ceilings by around 15Z and EAR by around 18Z, with VFR conditions follwing a few hours later.

Winds today start out of the south and gradually turn to the west and northwest as a front moves into the area.

Tonight, some models hint at nother round of fog and/or low stratus, but the probability for this occurring at EAR/GRI is too low (20%) to warrant a mention in the TAF at this point.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041- 046-047-060-061-072>074-082>084. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005-017.