textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A cluster of showers/thunderstorms is expected (50-70%) in south central Nebraska this morning between 4-11AM, mainly along and south of I-80. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

- Areas of patchy fog is possible (40-70%) Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

- Temperatures are expected to increase after today, reaching the mid to upper 90s by Saturday. Heat index values over 100 can't be ruled out Saturday through Monday, especially in north central Kansas.

UPDATE

Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Scattered showers/thunderstorms have continued to develop in the eastern portion of the area (mainly Clay/Hamilton counties and east) tonight. While there is some synoptic support for these scattered storms, namely warm air advection and low-level convergence along the nose of the developing low-level jet, these storms are not expected to become severe, as CAPE and shear look to be more limited the further west you go. Nonetheless, a few stronger storms may produce some small hail (less than 1 inch) and gusty winds up to 50 MPH.

Another storm cluster is expected across south central Nebraska this morning (mainly between 4-11AM), as a vorticity maximum digs into the area from the west. These storms are expected to line up along and south of I-80, with probabilities between 50-70%. However, some spurious showers/storms are possible (20-40%) outside this corridor. Recent model guidance has trended downward in rainfall accumulation through this afternoon, with only a 20-40% chance of seeing greater than a quarter of an inch, although locally higher amounts of up to an inch are possible in heavier cores. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity, as next to zero CAPE is expected in the area through the early afternoon.

Besides the chances through the early afternoon, relatively calm easterly winds around 5-10 MPH are expected through the afternoon as a high pressure center continues to develop across the region. Prolonged cloud cover through most of the afternoon will keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Areas of patchy fog may develop tomorrow night, as weak surface flow dominates the area. Current HREF/REFS guidance shows between a 40- 70% chance of seeing visibilities drop below 1 mile by sunrise Thursday morning through south central Nebraska, although the coverage of this fog is uncertain.

After today, temperatures look to increase into the mid to upper 90s through at least Sunday as an upper-level ridge expands eastward. Heat index values up over 100 are possible Saturday through Monday, especially in north central Kansas. However, there is some uncertainty with the duration of this heat, as overall uncertainty in the synoptic pattern increases post Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Currently through this evening...

A swath of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way east across the forecast area today...a trend that will continue on through the rest of this afternoon. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing generally zonal flow in place across the region. Across the CONUS, upper level low pressure is spinning in the GA/SC area, while the main area of high pressure centered over the Desert SW is being dampened by low pressure/broad troughing over much of central/western Canada into the northern CONUS. Satellite imagery shows shortwave disturbances embedded in the main overall flow...one of which is helping drive the ongoing activity across the forecast area. At the surface, the forecast sits just north of the main cold front...which has stalled some, currently sitting from SW/south central KS up into ESErn IA. Behind this frontal boundary, winds have been gusty (esp. by August standards) out of the NNE...gusts have mainly been around 25-30 MPH. Between the plentiful cloud cover, scattered precipitation and sitting on the north side of the frontal boundary...not surprising that in spots temperatures have been struggling so far today. By the time it's all said and done...forecast highs across southern areas will turn out alright...but some spots across south central NE may not end up even hitting 70 degrees. Still some time to recover behind this activity anywhere there are breaks in the cloud cover. For the rest of today...main concern lies with the ongoing activity. There have been spots at times that have perked up in strength...but the overall environment is not supportive of a notable severe weather threat. Not out of the question that some storms could be strong...with gusty winds/small hail the main threats. Instability is sitting around 500-1000 j/kg across central/NErn areas, closer to 1500 j/kg in the SE...but both low and mid level lapse rates are pretty low. Timing of the main swath has it clearing the forecast area early this evening...and while there could be some isolated lingering activity, models showing a relative lull...with better lift along an increasing LLJ looking to focus just off to our east.

Later tonight through Wednesday...

Mainly after midnight tonight, models showing another embedded weaker shortwave disturbance making its way out of the Rockies and onto the Plains...ushering the next chance for showers/thunderstorms. Higher-res models aren't in too bad of agreement showing that as far as timing goes...the better chances hold off until closer to/after 09Z. Little more uncertainty with the overall coverage initially, so PoPs remain broad with chances in place CWA-wide. The overall best chances run roughly from around sunrise through the early afternoon hours...dropping off from west to east, possibly dry area-wide by mid-afternoon. The highest chances remain focused through the heart of the forecast area, roughly from I-80 to near the state line...though at least 20-30 percent chances are outside that corridor to cover the rest of the area. Not anticipating this activity to be severe...with the SPC Day 2 outlook remaining well outside our boundaries.

At the surface, winds won't be as gusty as they have been today...as high pressure slides through the area. Winds turn more easterly with time, speeds topping out around 10 MPH. The daytime precipitation chances and lingering cloud cover make for a tricky temperature forecast...as there will be some opportunity to recover if precip does in fact clear out by mid- afternoon and we can get breaks in the cloud cover. Forecast highs through the central portions of the area are in the lower 70s, with mid-70s to the north and south.

Thursday and on...

Looking toward the end of this week on into the start of next week...overall there hasn't been any notable changes in the forecast. Big picture-wise...models continue to show the upper level pattern through this timeframe flexing to varying degrees of west-northwest flow. The main area of upper level high pressure remains centered generally over the Desert SW...at times able to amplify a bit more early-on thanks to deeper troughing over portions of the eastern CONUS...but then is dampened by additional activity moving onto western Canada/far NNWrn CONUS. Spotty, generally low-end preciptiation chances remain in the forecast...as there is still the potential for periodic shortwave disturbances to push through the region...but confidence in the timing and tracking of any of these disturbances is pretty low at this point.

Forecast continues to show a warming trend from the 70s of Wednesday...with low-mid 80s on Thursday increasing into the 90s- near 100 for this weekend/Monday. Heat index values around 100-105 are not out of the question Sat-Mon, especially for the southern half of the forecast area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR ceilings are likely to stick around for much of the morning hours with showers and non-severe thunderstorms lingering around the vicinity. The best potential for a passing storm will mainly fall between the 13-16z timeframe. Ceilings may temporarily drop to as low as 1,000ft with brief reductions in visibilities from curtains of rain. Ceilings should gradually raise between 16-19z with VFR conditions expected to return this afternoon and evening after the scattered storms exit east.

The next chance for sub-VFR conditions will fall late tonight into Thursday morning as fog is possible to develop across much of the area. The greatest potential for fog will fall after 10z in which visibilities may drop to near 1-2 miles, if not lower.

Winds are expected to remain on the lighter end today and tonight with gusts mainly less than 15kts. Wind direction starting out of the northeast this morning will gradually turn eastward today before settling out of the southeast for Thursday morning.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.