textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Should finally see a break in the damp/dreary conditions and have a chance to dry out some this weekend. However, some low end chances (20-30%) for isolated showers/storms remain for areas mainly E of Hwy 281 this afternoon.

- Areas of fog will be possible each of the next couple of nights, and some of this fog may be dense.

- Much of the day on Monday currently looks dry, but another system will bring high rain chances (70-90%) Monday night into Tuesday. It is uncertain how quickly this system will move out, so wet conditions may persist off and on through midweek. Will need to monitor potential for more hydro issues given the persistent nature of the wet weather pattern.

- Temperatures will remain mostly in the 70s/80s through Monday, then cool off into the 60s/70s for mid to late next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Vast majority of rain has exited the area to the E/NE this morning, but not before dumping some heavy rain amounts of 3-4.5" across portions of north central KS. The Flash Flood Warning should be able to expire on time.

The region should finally get a chance to dry out some this weekend, with only isolated, generally low-end 20-30% chances for some isolated showers and weak storms this afternoon. Latest hi-res guidance continues to point towards areas E of Hwy 281 as having this potential. Most areas won't get this rain this afternoon, and those that do should only see light amounts. Portions of the forecast area, particularly S/SW of the Tri- Cities, should see a decent amount of sunshine today, which will allow highs to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Elsewhere, suspect clouds will be more stubborn, with partly to mostly cloudy skies keeping highs a bit cooler in the lower to mid 70s. This is generally the same idea for Sunday (cooler NE/more clouds, warmer SW/more sun). Winds will be on the light side both days this weekend, so even a little bit of sunshine will make it feel pretty nice - esp. compared to the past few/several days. Hopefully we can find some natural Vitamin D.

General pattern recognition and recent rainfall is giving me increasing confidence for areas of fog at least tonight, and possibly Sunday night, as well. Not sure if the fog will be limited to mainly W half of CWA (as indicated by 06Z HRRR), or more widespread...but I do think it's pretty likely that whatever fog does form will be thick enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory. The western half of CWA idea conceptually makes some sense, as this is where clouds are most likely to clear out and allow for some radiational cooling amidst weak upslope flow. Hopefully model guidance and next shift can hone in on this a bit more.

Monday daytime hours still appear to remain mostly dry, but yet another upper disturbance with copious amounts of moisture will bring scattered to widespread rain back into the forecast Monday night into Tuesday. Appears quite likely this system will have a strong tropical Pacific moisture connection, so efficient and moderate to heavy rain will be possible once again. Will have SOME time to dry out this weekend, but getting into time of year where it's definitely a slower process than during the summer. As such, will need to monitor the potential for renewed hydro concerns. To this point, it's the follow on disturbances mid to late next week that could be more problematic. Guidance is mixed, but there are some indications we could be dealing with intense slug of moisture that is the remnants of Hurricane Polo sometime in the Wednesday-Thursday. Something to monitor as we head into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data continuing to show southwesterly flow in place this afternoon across the area...set up between high pressure sitting over the TX Gulf Coast, with ridging extending northward through through MN, and troughing over the western CONUS. This troughing is being driven by a couple of systems, one just working its way into the Pac NW, the other making its way northeast out of the Desert SW/Srn Plains. During the daytime hours so far today...any scattered showers had pushed east during the early morning hours, with little other than drizzle left behind. This has mainly affected the ENE half of the forecast area...where satellite has shown more stubborn cloud cover and area obs have shown ceilings remaining under 1k ft. Winds across the area remain south- southeasterly, and overall light, as we remain between sfc high pressure over much of the eastern CONUS and troughing/low pressure through the High Plains into TX. By the time its all said and done, forecast highs won't work out too bad...NErn areas under more cloud cover have struggled to get out of the mid 60s, further south has had a few peaks of sun, and lower-mid 70s have worked their way in.

This evening through the weekend...

Seeing some showers and storms moving northward through south- southwestern KS, driven by increased lift associated with that upper level shortwave disturbance roughly in the NM/CO/OK/TX border area. Models remain in good agreement showing this disturbance continuing on that northeastward track, bringing increasing chances for precip to the forecast area this evening/tonight. Aided later this evening by an increasing SSWrly low-level jet, forecast has pretty high chances going (70-90 percent)...with models continuing to focus the overall best chances roughly over central/eastern portions of the forecast area. Will be better chances for thunderstorms, with models showing perhaps up to 1000 j/kg nosing into the area...and while some storms could be on the stronger side, the overall threat for severe weather remains low. The main concern with these precip chances would be with the additional rainfall...if areas heavier rates happen to track over any areas that were part of the swath of 3-5 inches from the past 2 days, could result in some flooding concerns.

Through the overnight hours into Saturday morning...if the higher res models hold onto their trend, have the higher precipitation chances hanging on too long in the forecast. Have 60+ percent chances lingering across areas east of HWY 281 through sunrise Saturday...some models say activity cloud push east by closer to 09Z. This is talking showers/storms...not the potential fog/drizzle/low ceilings that could linger hours longer.

Have diminishing preciptiation chances during the day on Saturday...but couldn't totally dry out the afternoon hours, as models have been pretty persistent showing another weaker push of mid-upper level potentially sparking off some afternoon showers/storms across areas mainly east of Highway 281. Especially for the western half of the forecast area...models showing better potential for more sun...the further east you go, that will be tougher to do, especially with the chance for additional precip developing during the afternoon. Because of that uncertainty with clouds/precip, not a ton of confidence in the forecast highs for Saturday...which currently sit in the low 70s in the NE to low 80s in the far SSW.

Forecast finally dries out for Sunday...and models remain in good agreement with that, as upper level ridging builds in across the area...set up between areas of low pressure affecting each coast. Expecting generally partly cloudy skies, highs mainly in the 70s.

New work week...

This upper level ridging centered through the Plains is short- lived, with models in good agreement showing southwesterly flow returning on Monday, driven by that western CONUS upper low that looks to dig into southern CA. Models showing that as that low digs further south, a separate northern stream shortwave disturbance will be pushing through the Central/Nrn Rockies will help drive increasing precipitation chances. Do still have a small area of low chances (20 percent) over far WNW portions of the area Monday afternoon, but the overall better chances look to hold off until Monday evening- overnight.

A potentially more active/wet period returns from Tuesday on...still plenty of things to iron out in the coming days. Will say that compared to 24hrs ago, there is better agreement between models with the main upper low, its evolution and trek across the Central Plains. At 12Z Tuesday, this upper low looks to be roughly in the CA/AZ/NV border area...trekking further into AZ/NM by sunrise Wednesday...then turning a bit more northeast into CO by 12Z Thursday. Additional shortwave disturbances out ahead of the system, and eventually just greater larger-scale lift as it be moves in keep precipitation chances around each day through the mid-week...and because there are details to iron out, those chances are very broad in nature. Later Wednesday and more into Thursday the upper low itself looks to cross through the Central Plains...but the exact track/timing needs some refinement in the coming days. Agreement with the track isn't too bad, potentially bringing the upper low right over the forecast area...differences are larger with the timing...as the ECMWF is much slower, keeping it around well into Friday, vs the GFS which largely clears the forecast area Thursday night. This could be another longer duration, heavier rain maker...will just have to see how models trend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: IFR to LIFR CIGs and mainly MVFR to VFR VSBYs expected this morning before some improvement for the aftn hours. General consensus is for a return to MVFR CIGs by around 20Z, or so. Can't rule out an isolated shower/weak storm this afternoon into early evening, mainly at GRI. Winds will be light out of the E/SE. Confidence: Medium to high.

Tonight: Will likely see IFR to LIFR CIGs and/or VSBYs develop after sunset, and particularly after midnight. EAR may have more potential for dense fog than GRI, which may just remain as very low stratus/LIFR CIGs...but it will depend on where the clearing line is by around sunset. Regardless, have fairly high confidence there will be either very low CIGs or dense fog. Winds will be light and variable.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.