textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- For most locations, today will continue to be dry. Can't rule out a few isolated showers/storms starting to working into far southern portions of the area this afternoon/evening. Severe weather is not expected.

- An upper level disturbance shifting north will bring increasing chances for showers/storms Thursday, but some uncertainty remains with the overall coverage...forecast chances are in the 20-50 percent range, with the best chances across the southern half of the area.

- An unsettled pattern continues into the weekend and potentially early next week...keeping precipitation chances in the forecast. Plenty of details to iron out as differences between models continue.

UPDATE

Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Currently...

Quiet conditions remain in place across the forecast area early this morning. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show the two largest features being low pressure spinning over the northern half of the NV/CA border and high pressure anchored off the Mid- Atlantic/Southeast coast. Across the central portions of the CONUS, troughing extends southeast from the main low down into TX, where a smaller vort max sits...while a ridge axis extends to the northwest into the Dakotas. Not much change with the surface pattern across the area...with winds generally southeasterly as a trough axis remains over the High Plains...but winds the rest of tonight will also be light/variable at times through the rest of tonight.

Today through Thursday...

For much of the forecast area...today continues to look like it'll be dry. Models showing that shortwave disturbance currently over the NM/Panhandle of TX area will start working its way north...but doesn't make a notable amount of progress due to the blocking of that ridging through eastern NE and into the Dakotas...roughly reaching only into the southern border of CO/KS by early-mid evening. Models have continued to trend back the coverage of precipitation working its way into the forecast area today/tonight...during the daytime hours, chances are focused during the mid-late afternoon hours, mainly across WSW portions of our north central KS counties. During the evening- overnight hours tonight, current forecast chances only inch far enough north to work into a handful of NE counties along the state line. Some of this activity will be thunderstorms...but models continue to show the potential for severe weather being low. Outside of preciptiation chances...other elements of the forecast haven't changed notably. Will be seeing increasing cloud cover with time from south to north...and with little change in the sfc pattern, winds remain southeasterly, with gusts around 20-25 MPH not out of the question this afternoon. High temperatures look to top out in the mid-upper 80s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to spread across the forecast area as we get into Thursday and Thursday night...with PoPs remaining generally in the 20-50 percent range (highest chances across SSWrn half of the area). Still a few differences between models with the timing of the northward progress of the trough axis/precipitation chances...a few have the axis well into the forecast area by the end of the day Thursday, most others are slower, showing the axis still only running NW-SE through SSW portions of the forecast area Thursday evening-overnight. Hi-res models showing activity being scattered-spotty in nature, and with difference between models with their QPF placement, PoPs remain on the lower side. Overall severe threat again looks to be low...SPC Day 2 outlook only has general thunder across SSWrn area. With increasing cloud cover and preciptiation chances, hard to have a ton of confidence in high temperatures...forecast calls for low-mid 80s. Expecting similar winds to Wednesday...southeasterly, some gusts near 20-25 MPH possible.

Friday an on...

As we into the end of the week and early next week...the further out in time, the lower the overall confidence in the forecast. The disturbance shifting north today-Thursday continues that trend into Friday...with models showing a slight eastward shift of that ridging running up into the Dakotas. Models continue to show coverage of precipitation being scattered in nature...with the potential for another disturbance swinging NE out of CO/NM out ahead of the main western CONUS upper low (which models show moving into UT Fri evening-night), bringing another round of showers/thunderstorms. Through the weekend, that shortwave disturbance and the main low itself are shown by models to take a more northward shift, ending up in the Nrn Rockies/Dakotas for Sunday. Preciptiation chances linger through the weekend, moreso Sat-Sat night than Sun-Sun night...but as stated up, confidence in the details of any of this is not high. A messy pattern looks to continue into the start of the new work week...with models showing a battle between upper level high pressure trying to build north out of the Srn Plains/Desert SW and low pressure potentially set up over the Pac NW or Nrn Rockies...quiet a few differences between models with which feature takes over...but there is good agreement that it is all still blocked up by consistent troughing along the East Coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This afternoon-Tonight...

It's another seasonably warm day across the area with temperatures currently in the 80s, topping out around 90 degrees. Southerly winds are breezy this afternoon, gusting 20-30mph, strongest along/west of Highway 183. Winds drop off after sunset becoming light overnight as lows drop into the 50s.

Wednesday...

Aloft a cutoff low will sit over the southwestern U.S. Wednesday morning with a ridge centered over the plains, and a deepening trough over the northeast. A weak disturbance attempts to lift out of the southwest on Wednesday, but quickly gets trapped under the ridge. This disturbance will gradually shift a band of scattered showers/storms north across the Plains, reaching far southwestern portions of the area during the afternoon/evening. The band then stalls out and remains largely stationary through the overnight hours. There continues to be some spread in model guidance for where exactly this band sets up, but overall it favors areas along and southwest of a line from Cambridge, NE to Osborne, KS. Highs on Wednesday range from the mid 80s across southwest portions of the area where afternoon cloud coverage increases, to the low 90s across the northeast where sunshine dominates.

Thursday...

As the upper level blocking pattern strengthens on Thursday, the aforementioned disturbance remains trapped under the ridge. This limits/prevents much movement from the band, though model guidance indicates at least some northwards movement is possible. Again, model spread and weak flow aloft brings a fair amount of uncertainty on the position/location of rain on Thursday. The best chances favor locations along and southwest of the Tri- Cities. Multiple rounds of showers and storms are possible where the band eventually sets up. Highs on Thursday depend on cloud coverage/rain vs sun, ranging from the upper 70s (southwest) to around 90 degrees.

Friday Onwards...

The upper level pattern continues to be weak and messy through the end of the forecast period as the omega blocking pattern remains in place. A slightly stronger wave of upper level energy attempts to lift into the area this weekend as the cutoff low rejoins the jetstream. The result is another round of scattered, low confidence PoPs across the area through the end of the forecast period. Details will become clearer as we get closer, though the best chances favor western portions of the area at this time. Under the influence of ridging aloft, near to above normal temperatures are expected through the end of the forecast period (highs low-mid 80s).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Better chances for precipitation will be pushing north out of the Southern Plains...but at least through this period the better potential looks to remain south of the terminal areas. Cloud cover will increase through the period, with ceilings expected to remain near/above 12k ft. Light/variable winds early this morning will become increasingly southeasterly through the morning hours...with gusts near 20-25 MPH possible this afternoon...before becoming light/variable again late tonight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.