textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible into tonight, although many areas, especially north of I-80 will remain dry.

- There is a low chance (5%) for storms to become severe, mainly southwest of a line from Cambridge, NE to Mankato, KS. Strong wind gusts to 60 MPH is the main concern.

- Beyond tonight, rain chances look bleak until at least Thursday/Friday.

- Fire weather will become the primary concern next week as hot, dry, and breezy conditions return to the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A cold front crossed the local area early this afternoon switching winds to the north and bringing a few showers to areas mainly south of I-80. Latest mesoanalysis from SPC indicates that there is very limited instability to work with, but evenso, we have seen a couple of weak thunderstorm manage to develop across north central Kansas this past hour. Most recent CAMS suggest additional development across north central Kansas over the next few hours, keeping the more explosive activity to the south of the local forecast area.

Upstream of the area, thunderstorms can be seen expanding in coverage across northeastern Colorado...which is forecast to transition east/southeast through the evening hours... potentially impacting areas mainly south of I-80 late tonight. That said, by the time this activity reaches the local area it should be weakening, and the severe weather potential will likely be limited to stronger wind gusts...if any stronger storms are able to hold together at all. While precipitation totals are generally highly variable with thunderstorms, most locations south of I-80 can expect to see less than 0.10" of precipitation with a few lucky locations across our north central Kansas counties possibly seeing closer to 0.50".

Expect a few lingering showers to then impact portions of north central Kansas early Sunday morning, with clearing skies anticipated areawide by mid to late morning. With high temperatures in the lower 70s, light northerly breezes and ample Sunshine, Sunday should be a very nice day across the area, before temperatures start to ramp up for the start of the work week. This warm-up will be in response to high pressure transitioning across the area aloft by Monday afternoon... helping temperatures to climb into the 80s while suppressing any convective potential. Thus, expect a dry and warm first half of the week, with well above normal temperatures late week as the ridge pushes further east and a west coast low transitions across the intermountain west. Plenty of uncertainty in the track of this low late week with the 12Z operational run of the EC taking it north of the area and the GFS lifting it northeast across Nebraska late Friday. That said, neither the GFS or EC ensembles have a strong signal for precip at this time, so while there are small pops in the forecast late next week, confidence is low. What appears more certain is above normal temperatures returning Monday and likely lingering into the latter part of May.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 651 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are likely to maintain across the next at least 24-hours. A few clouds moving in overnight should not drop ceilings below 10,000ft. Otherwise, a few showers may pass through the vicinity between 5-9z (mainly only 7-9z for KGRI). These showers will be brief in nature and should not deposit much in terms of precipitation.

Winds, currently blowing out of the northeast between 10-15kts and gusting as high as 30kts, will not stay long tonight. Gusts are expected to drop off around 1-3z with light and variable winds (<10kts) maintaining through the rest of the night and the first half of the day Sunday. Winds, generally lighter Sunday afternoon (10-15kts), will keep directions out of the northwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

The expected hot and dry conditions will extend the spring fire weather season into May. Already on Monday, widespread temperatures in the 80s, humidity in the 15-25% range, and gusty southwest winds will combine to result near-critical fire weather conditions for the entire area, and it is possible that western areas will need Red Flag conditions.

Winds flip to the north on Tuesday, but fairly widespread fire weather concerns continue as drier air advects into the area.

Wednesday may be a bit of a reprieve as most of the area (except possibly western zones) sees noticably lighter southeasterly winds.

Temperatures are favored to approach/exceed 90 degrees on both Thursday and Friday. Of the two days, Thursday appears to be the most concerning with strong south winds.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.