textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms through this evening, mainly for areas south and east of Hastings. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are the main threats.

- After a lull in storms tonight, additional rounds of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Sunday into Sunday night, and maybe even early Monday morning.

- Significant severe weather remains a possiblity Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, but considerable uncertainty regarding specific timing, coverage, and magnitude of severe threats remain. Kansas more favored for severe than Nebraska.

- The forecast for next week will be dominated by cool temperatures and frequent frost and freeze concerns due to chilly lows in the 30s (at least) each night/early morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The Severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled. Any lingering showers and weak thunderstorms should exit to the E within the next couple of hours.

Will be adding some fog to the grids for late tonight into Sunday AM. Recent rainfall combined with a gradual turn in winds to more easterly (upslope) suggests the HRRR trends could have some merrit. However, will keep the mention more limited than what the HRRR suggests given limited support from other models. It's possible the wind speeds remain just strong enough to preclude significant dense fog.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A sharp frontal zone is currently bisecting the area from SW to NE...with temperatures on the NW side actually falling into the 40s...whereas areas that remain ahead of the front have warmed into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The frontal zone is serving as a focus for strong the severe thunderstorms this afternoon, and expect this threat to continue for much of the evening, mainly for areas E and S of Hastings. Instability falls off rather quickly N of Hwy 6 E of Hastings, so while a strong storm with small to maybe marginally severe hail (0.5-1." in diameter) can't be ruled out, and primary severe threat will be S of Hwy 6 and near/E of Hwy 281 where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9PM this evening. These areas have destabilized considerably more in a pocket of recent clearing, as evident by HJH shooting up to 75F degrees. This is supporting around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which combined with effective deep layer shear of 40-50kt, is more than enough CAPE/shear for supercells. Mid level lapse rates are steep, but not crazy steep, so think quarter to perhaps golf ball hail is the main threat. Can't rule out some localized damaging wind with any RFDs as well as a brief tornado given presence of a boundary and ample 0-3km CAPE. Expect most of the organized convection to clear the forecast area to the E/SE by around 8-9PM, leaving damp & dreary conditions through the overnight. Will need to watch for some dense fog potential late overnight into Sunday morning as winds back more towards the E (upslope) amidst already high boundary layer moisture left over by today's rain.

Focus then turns to our next round of covection and severe weather potential on Sunday. Unfortunately, models still remain quite varied in their solutions on how the day ultimately pan's out, specifically with regards to the coverage, intensity, and timing of initially elevated convection late morning into early afternoon...and how that impacts destabilization potential later on in the day. Still too much uncertainty to put too much stock into one single model, but general trends on the last two runs of the HREF suggest a consensus may be forming. It roughly supports the last couple runs of the HRRR in that there will be increasing elevated convection that develops from SW Nebraska into north central KS during the morning hours, that then shifts NE across the area during the bulk of the daytime hours. This round could have a non-zero severe potential with it particularly on the S/SE flank and as it begins to interact with increasing instability. This would be roughly the same areas experiencing severe weather today, with large hail again the primary threat. The exact timing of this first round will be absolutely critical to fine tuning the severe threat both during the day, and with any subsequent rounds during the evening and/or overnight.

Speaking of which...appears a second round may develop W/SW of the forecast area during the late afternoon and early evening, then quickly move E/NE during the mid-late evening and overnight. This is the round the some of the hi-res guidance really pegs as the potential high-end severe threat. Now...will this actually be for our area (mainly KS zones), or will the main threat remain just SW/S of the area due to stabilizing effects from the first round? That's the big question at this point. Conceptually speaking and from personal experience these setup's usual favor more S than N than what one thinks 24+ hours out...but if the morning activity isn't very widespread or intense, the effective warm front could trend further N. Regardless of where the boundary sets up, storms along it will be perfectly situated in a volitle combination of instability and shear, and the strongest forcing/height falls may lag just enough to preclude more widespead coverage - thus leading to better potential for discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will be possible with any supercells in this area between 21Z-03Z. After 03Z, would expect some upscale growth into lines and/or clusters as forcing increases along with the low level jet. As such, a large hail and damaging wind threat (maybe a brief tornado) could continue well into the overnight...again favoring areas along/S of the state line the most.

The upper low will pivot E/NE across the NE/SD border area on Monday and continue a shower/weak thunderstorm threat throughout the daytime, esp. for areas N/NE of the Tri-Cities. Monday will not really be any more pleasant than the weekend given increasingly strong NW winds and chilly highs in the 50s to lower 60s.

The main story for the rest of the week will be chilly temperatures and nearly nightly frost/freeze concerns for a good chunk of the forecast area. Obviously, NW zones will be at most risk for actual freezing temperatures, but frosty conditions could easily spread in the the Tri-Cities, esp. Wed & Fri AMs

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: IFR to LIFR CIGs and MVFR to IFR VSBYs much of the period. Scattered storms possible around midday Sunday.

Tonight: Most of the rain activity has slide east of the terminals, but a few showers may linger around GRI for another hour, or so. The rest of the night should be dry, but expect ongoing IFR CIGs to persist and even lower further to LIFR by midnight. The main question overnight is dense fog potential and VSBY ristrictions. There's arguements for and against dense fog, so hedged in between and lowered both sites to IFR beginning around 08Z, but didn't put the VSBYs going quite as low as recent HRRR runs show. Expect some amendments as trends develop this evening. Wind will be out of the NNE-NE, averaging around 10-15kt. Confidence: Wind/CIGs - high, VSBYs- low.

Sunday: LIFR to IFR CIGs will persist through the morning, and may even struggle to shake the IFR CIGs during the afternoon. VSBYs look to start the day IFR, but possibly improve to MVFR or VFR for the afternoon. Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase from the W towards late Sun AM, and continue through much of the afternoon. A few of these could be strong with some small hail, esp. for GRI. May see a break in the rain arrive near the end of the period, but more rounds of convection will be possible Sunday night. Winds will turn from the NE to ESE and remain between 8-12kt. Confidence: Medium.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.