textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Some brief showers may cross through Central Nebraska between 6PM and midnight Monday evening (20-40% chance). At most, a few areas could receive a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of moisture. Areas near and south of the state line will likely remain completely dry.

- Highs start between the mid 50s to low 70s Monday (warmest to the south) and will bounce around the 50s to mid 60s through Thursday. The coldest day of the week will likely occur Friday (highs between the mid 40s to low 50s)

- Precipitation chances towards the end of the week (mainly Thursday night and Friday) are up to 25-45% with the greatest potential lying towards the southeast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Tonight through Wednesday...

A low currently situated across Nevada today will soon be on track to swing over into Nebraska around Monday evening. The approach of this wave will stir up some banded precipitation primarily across South Dakota, Southern Minnesota and Iowa to name a few places. Impacts to the local area precipitation wise should be more on the minimal side of things, although a few showers across Central Nebraska Monday evening/night remain as a possibility (20-40% chances).

The latest short-term and high-res guidance (primarily the HRRR and RAP models) continues to highlight some showers becoming wrapped around the surface low Monday evening. These showers, would pass from west to east across a few portions of Central Nebraska as the surface low pulls away Monday evening. The latest 18z model guidance places a cluster of these showers near and just north of the I-80 corridor between primarily 6PM and midnight. Most of these showers should be brief, depositing at most a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of moisture. Areas closer to and south of the state line will likely be missed altogether (<15% chance).

Besides the limited precipitation chances Monday evening, southerly winds between 10-20MPH on Monday will lighten some overnight, swinging clockwise and around Tuesday as the low moves east and away. Light winds will finally settle back to a more consistent southeasterly direction for Wednesday. Highs for Monday will offer a wide spread from north to south with temperatures up to the mid 50s to low 60s north of I-80 and up to the mid 60s to low 70s south of the state line. Highs for Tuesday will range the 50s to low 60s, warming back a few degrees for Wednesday (upper 50s to mid 60s).

Thursday and Beyond...

Our main focus in the long range forecast revolves around how a shortwave trough will impact the Thursday/Friday timeframe. The 12z GFS/ECMWF models runs both project this disturbance to deepen a surface low across the TX/OK/KS/CO borders on Thursday. This mid- latitude cyclone will then be expected to eject northeastward across Central and Eastern Kansas during the day Friday, following along with the upper jet-level flow.

The outskirts of this potential system's precipitation bands could arrive up into North Central Nebraska as early as Thursday, though the latest guidance has been several hours slower with the precipitation onset timing. We will be curious to see if this slowing trend continues. As our forecast currently stands, the overall best chances for precipitation lie Thursday night into Friday (25-45% chances) with the best chances concentrated towards the south.

Given the current projected track of the system, a large north to south precipitation gradient is due to set up across our area where places in the north (Central Nebraska) could easily fall shy of the forecast with a few places towards the south (North Central Kansas) potentially overachieving our early forecasted precipitation amounts (currently 0.1-0.5"). Note that given this system being at least four days out, confidence can easily shift in either direction (the most recent shift has been a slight decrease in intensity). Given potentially near freezing temperatures late Thursday night, a few light snow could be mixed into this system on its furthest northern side, especially if timing lags into Friday night (cooler temperatures overnight). No snow accumulation is expected at this time.

Beyond the precipitation chances, Temperates near the end of the week will dip a few degrees, mainly Friday as highs transition from the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday to the mid 40s to low 50s Friday. Overcast skies with northerly winds advecting in cooler air from the north would be the main contributers.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1119 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR conditions expected during TAF period. MVFR stratus is expected to move into KGRI/KEAR after sunrise. Stratus will raise slightly during the day (020-025), but remain MVFR. VFR conditions return around sunset, first at KEAR than KGRI. Another round of sub-VFR conditions are expected to return just past the TAF period.

LLWS is developing, and will persist into the mid-morning hours before weakening. South-southeast winds of 10-15kts and gusting around 20kts are expected into the mid-late afternoon hours, weakening as a low pressure system moves overhead. Around sunset winds become light and variable with the passage of the low.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.