textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to 103 degrees with around 60-80% of the area hitting the triple digits today.

- A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 10AM to 10PM as Heat Index values climb to as high as 105-110 degrees.

- A cold front arriving to central Nebraska this afternoon may stir up a few non-severe storms between mainly 3-8PM. Much of the area should remain dry with only a few storms possible to develop north of I-80 (10-30% chances).

- Though a few isolated/scattered storms may redevelop across the area again Tuesday (10-20% chances), more widespread and greater storm probabilities will come later in the week: 30-70% Wednesday and 40-80% Thursday.

- Temperatures after today will dip back to the upper 70s to low 90s for the period Wednesday through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The warmest day of the week and likely the warmest day so far of the year for many locations will be expected today. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 90s to as high as 103 degrees with around 60-80% of the area likely to see highs reach the triple digits. With dewpoints forecast to range the mid 60s to mid 70s, generally increasing towards the east, widespread heat index values of 102-110 will be expected. A few Nebraska locations east of HWY-281 (areas with the highest moisture content) may even see localized heat index values up to 112 degrees (10-30% chance). A heat advisory will be in effect across the entire forecast areas between 10AM and 10PM today.

So how does this heat compare to mid July standards? Normal highs for mid July generally range the upper 80s. As result from the 10-15 degree above normal temperatures mixed with the high humidity, a Major Heat Risk (level 3 of 4) will be in place across all of south central Nebraska and across a few far north central Kansas areas. This Major heat Risk classification suggests that all individuals may be susceptible to heat related illnesses without the proper use of hydration or an effective cooling source. Given light southerly winds (5-15MPH) and mostly clear skies today, natural sources for cooling will be limited as reflected by the High to Extreme Wet Bulb Globe Temperature values (level 3/4 of 4).

Beyond the heat today, a few afternoon thunderstorms can't be ruled out, especially across locations north of the interstate (10-30% chances). A cold front, racing south across South Dakota tonight, will later be expected to reach portions of central Nebraska by this afternoon to evening. This front will eventually provide some heat relief for the area. In addition to the heat relief, a few storms between 3-8PM may be possible to form along this boundary as it passes through north central to central Nebraska. Most locations, especially ones south of I-80, should remain dry or unimpacted. These storms, given weak upper-level support, will not be expected to become severe and will be fairly scattered in coverage. In terms of high resolution model guidance, the HRRR is slightly more aggressive with the storm coverage than the NAMNEST, though the HRRR still depicts these storms/showers to be more short-lived and fairly weak.

Aloft, a ridge that instigated this past weekend warmup and has been fending off precipitation chances lately, will start to lose some of its span of control. A shortwave trough, presently located across the Northern Plains, will soon dig southeast, bringing along height/pressure falls to mainly the eastern half of the area. This should bring the jet stream down to just northeast of the area with northwest flow setting up aloft (dictating the trajectory of any developing storms).

Temperatures following the cold frontal passage will set up in the upper 80s to upper 90s for Tuesday and the upper 70s to low 90s for Wednesday. The warmest temperatures both days should generally settle across southwest Nebraska and north central Kansas. Northerly winds for Tuesday blowing between 10-15MPH and gusting as high as 20-30MPH will do much of the cooling as the "cooler" airmass behind the front is advected in. Winds for Wednesday will take on a more easterly direction with speeds just a hare lighter from Tuesday.

Though a few 10-20% PoPs return for Tuesday from the potential of isolated to scattered weak afternoon thunderstorms, the better and likely more widespread precipitation potential (30-70% chances) will come Wednesday. General agreement between the NAM and ECMWF models show a potential MCC developing overnight Tuesday around western Wyoming. This storm complex, given the broad northwest flow, will have a good shot at steering itself down into central Nebraska/Kansas on Wednesday. Though not every portion of the area may see precipitation, all three of the long-range ensemble forecast members (GEFS/ENS/GEPS) shows at least some of these storm/shower remnants making down into central Nebraska/Kansas on Wednesday. This gives us some confidence that precipitation of some magnitude will make into into some of if not much of the area. Additional details will get ironed out once this event becomes in range of the short-range high resolution models.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This afternoon-Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are currently in the 90s, warmest across north central Kansas. Heat index values are expected to top out around or slightly over 100 degrees. Scattered thunderstorm chances look to remain east/south of the forecast area this afternoon- evening. Lows tonight will be in the 70s with clear skies and light winds.

Monday...

Monday is expected to be the hottest day of the forecast period as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s. Hot temperatures combined with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees will result in heat index values in the mid to upper 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area from 10am to 10pm Monday.

During the late afternoon-early evening hours, a cold front pushes into far northern portions of the area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible (15-20%) along this front. Any storm would likely come to an end around sunset as stability increases. Areas with the highest chance to see a storm will be along and north of Highway 92 in Nebraska. Shear looks to be higher than on previous days, and could support a storm on the stronger side (gusty winds possible). The cold front steadily pushes south across the area overnight, though lows remain in the 70s overnight.

Tuesday...

The cold front will reach portions of north central Kansas around sunrise on Tuesday. Aloft a trough diving into the Midwest transitions the area to a northwesterly flow pattern. Breezy winds are expected on Tuesday behind the front, gusting 20-25mph. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s (north) to mid 90s (south).

Wednesday Onwards...

Rain chances return to the area on Wednesday and Thursday as a series of disturbances traverse through the northwesterly flow aloft. Wherever cloud coverage and lingering convection sets up, highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be sightly cooler, in the 80s. At this time models support two waves of showers/storms moving through the area: one Wednesday-Thursday AM which favors northeastern portions of the area, and a second Thursday evening/night which favors more central portions of the area. There's still plenty of time for things to change, and the exact track of these rain chances will become clearer as we get closer in time. Otherwise temperatures begin to climb back above normal as we move into next weekend with ridging rebuilds over the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Expect VFR conditions to prevail at both terminals. Winds are light and southerly, but may be variable overnight with the light speed. Winds will become more southwesterly early Monday before becoming southerly again in the afternoon hours. Speeds aren't overly strong, generally below 10kts. There is a possibility for some showers and weak thunderstorms that develop ahead of a front moving southward through northern Nebraska. This activity is expected to be the strongest to the north and east of the terminals. Some showers and thunderstorms may impact the terminals, but confidence in the terminal being hit is low enough...below 30 percent that have not included a Prob30 at this time. The timeframe that thunderstorms could impact the area is between 23Z - 03Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.