textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions persist area wide tomorrow,then for one more day along and south of the state line Wednesday. Peak heat index values of 100-105F expected. Far southern areas may get some relief from a southerly breeze, but most will have only a light wind.

- Thunderstorms will attempt to roll into the area from the west late this evening and overnight, but will likely be on a weakening trend. There is a Marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe.

- Better chances for storms arrive Wednesday evening, and an overall more active weather pattern is expected for the second half of the week and into the weekend. There is a marginal to slight (level 1-2 of 5) for severe weather on Wednesday.

- Temperatures taper off to more seasonable levels with the arrival of the more active pattern (and more clouds), with mainly 70s and 80s for highs Friday and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 445 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Once morning fog burned off we quickly transitioned to another warm/hot and steamy afternoon. Mid to even upper 70s dew points are common across south central Nebraska, which when combined with air temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s is still leading to heat indices around or just above 100 degrees. Further south into KS, drier air has worked in from the SW, but this is just helping to raise air temperatures even further into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. So no matter where one is in the CWA this afternoon, it certainly still feels like summer.

Main question this evening surrounds the ability for convection to maintain itself as it rolls E off the High Plains, potentially into our far W zones as early as 02Z-03Z. Most of the recent CAM guidance weakens this activity pretty quickly after sunset thanks to rapidly increasing ML CINH. However, its possible that a strengthening low level jet (up to 35-45kt) could help offset or delay some of this weakening. IF storms can maintain some intensity, the main threat would be gusty winds of 50-60 MPH, and would likely remain mainly W through NW of the Tri-Cities. Activity should weaken to mainly just lingering showers by around and esp. after midnight. Unfortunately, this doesn't appear to be a big rain-maker, even for the areas that do get hit, owing to the expected weakening trend.

Another question for the overnight period will be if we see yet another round of fog. Neither deterministic models or ensembles have an overly strong/obvious signature for fog tonight...but simple pattern recognition (light winds/high BL RH) and persistence from past few days suggests it's certainly a possibility. Guidance that does hint at fog suggests it would be mainly N of I-80. Will obviously need to monitor these trends throughout the evening and overnight, but for now, have left out of the HWO and just included some fog mention in the grids.

Pattern begins to break down on Wednesday as the strong upper high centered over the Four Corners region now shifts E and reorients over the Deep South. This pattern shift will likely result in more active zonal or even SW flow aloft, with a parade of weak disturbances supporting frequent rounds of convection that initially develops along the high plains during the afternoon, then shifts E during the evening/night. Moisture will likely NOT be a limiting factor as a SE CONUS upper ridge in August often allows for monsoonal moisture to be pulled well N then E onto the Plains to interact with the frequent upper disturbances. There will likely be at least SOME severe weather and heavy rain potential in this type of pattern nearly daily through the weekend, and this begins with the entire forecast area being in either a marginal or slight risk (level 1-2 of 5) on Wednesday.

With the more frequent rain chances will also come increased cloud cover and gradually cooler temperatures. We probably won't be able to shake the humidity (still have a lot of evapotranspiration happening each day), but the upper pattern described above should shunt any significant low level thermal ridging further S, allowing for mainly 70s and 80s for Friday and into the weekend during any daytime dry breaks.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Wind shear is expected between 04z and 09z. Showers and thunderstorms will likely move through the area between 04z and 08z. There is a low chance (around 20%) of fog development tonight but chances are too low to include at this time. Southeast winds will back toward the south then southwest then north then east then southeast by 21z Tuesday. Wind speeds will generally be between 5 to 15 knots.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.