textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog this morning, mainly for portions of south central Nebraska. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect.

- Scattered strong-severe storms are possible again this afternoon and evening...but there remains uncertainty with timing and the overall coverage. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms in the latest SPC Day 1 outlook.

- Another concern comes tonight with the potential for isolated heavy rain from training thunderstorms. Similar to the daytime, uncertainty with coverage and placement continue into the overnight, though the greatest risk appears to be NE-E of the Tri-Cities.

- Pattern remains somewhat active through early next week but should trend generally drier and warmer for the second half.

UPDATE

Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Main concern this morning is fog that has developed across portions of the forecast area. The most persistent dense fog appears to be sandwiched between about the NE/KS state line and Hwy 92 in central Nebraska, where a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued. This is pretty close to what recent runs of the HRRR have been showing for the most favored areas of fog. With that said, there is still some nuance to the issue thanks complications from thunderstorm outflow trying to move in from the W and N/NE. Fog may be transitioning to more of a low stratus deck - esp. from around Grand Island E to York, which appears to be related to outflow from N Neb storms earlier in the night. Webcams still show some patchy areas of fog, mainly in Hall Co...but if trends continue, may be able to clear a few counties early. Elsewhere, weak E/SE upslope flow and very low T-Td depressions should keep fog in place through around 8-9AM.

Attention then turns to the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms that may or may not develop late this afternoon and into the evening along a weak trough/convergent zone. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for much of the forecast area and has included Conditional Intensity Group Level 1 (CIG1) areas for wind and hail, as well. This suggests that reasonable peak winds of 74+ MPH and hail > 2" in diameter will be possible in the strongest storms. However, with that said, want to state upfront that the potential for storms to develop at all remains quite uncertain, thanks in large part to rising mid level heights which tends to suppress convection in the absence of strong/focused low level lift. And it's just not quite clear if the relatively weak trough will be that sufficiently strong focus for development. IF storms do form, there will impressive instability (MLCAPE 3-4K J/kg) and modest, but sufficient, deep layer shear (30-35kt) for some organized clusters and/or supercells. Mid level lapse rates will be fairly steep at around 7.5 C/km. It appears the trough will be located roughly along a line from Phillipsburg to York by peak heating, with any storm motions expected to be E or SE.

Would not be shocked if there are actually two favored areas for development...one near a thermal low on the nose of hot, deeply mixed air near or just SW of Hill City...and another area along and E of Hwy 81 in an area of slightly lower mid level temps and weaker capping. If this indeed is the case, we may largely miss out on severe convection altogether. This is just one potential outcome, though, and spread even amongst the CAMs is pretty high. Thus, the best way to put it is low confidence (and potentially low coverage), but conditionally moderate intensity/impact IF a storm is able to form around peak heating.

The last concern worth discussing in the short term is the potential for somewhat more widespread, but elevated, convection to develop on the nose of the low level jet late this evening and particularly overnight. This is a scenario that has a bit more model agreement amongst the CAMs, and even some of the coarser guidance, but by no means qualifies as high confidence, either. This round would be mostly after 03Z and represent more of a locally heavy rain threat than a severe threat. The models that DO have this round keep it mainly NE-E of the Tri-Cities, and again could favor more of E Nebraska than central Nebraska. Tend to think this overnight round is more plausible thanks to the stronger forcing from the convergence of the low level jet, as well as lift from relatively broad and deep warm air advection in the 850-700mb layer as viewed on area soundings. Any storms that do form overnight will have PLENTIFUL moisture to work with as evident by PWATs of 1.50-1.75" (more of mid to late summer type levels). What's also concerning is the weak mid to upper level winds and generally slow movement. Furthermore, the mean wind vector in the 850-500mb layer will be somewhat parallel to the LLJ convergence axis - which could ultimately support some training thunderstorm cells. Overall, this scenario could be fairly similar to what happened in SE Nebraska into NW Missouri last night. Not enough confidence in the coverage or placement at this time for a Flood Watch, but day shift may need to consider one if model agreement/consistency increases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Currently through tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to impact roughly the southeastern half of the forecast area here during the early-mid afternoon hours...driven by a MCV working its way through north central KS. This complex will remain the primary concern through the rest of this afternoon...moving into an area what has been under cloud cover most of the day, with temps only in the low 70s, but dewpoints aren't far off. Not surprisingly, low-mid level lapse rates aren't great, which is helping keep storms from growing much...even with MLCAPE of around 1000-1500 j/kg. Deeper layer shear is also not great...but lower level shear is better, with the SPC Meso page show 0-1km values around 15-20kts. Being this closer to the better mid-upper level forcing along with low LCL values, certainly can't rule out an isolated brief tornado as this activity makes its way through and eventually out of the forecast area. Hi- res models have been consistent today showing the brunt of this activity clear the forecast area by 00Z, perhaps some isolated activity hanging on another hour or two after that...then keep the rest of the overnight hours dry.

A weak surface pattern lingering through the overnight hours keeps winds on the lighter side...more easterly across our Nebraska counties, more southern across our Kansas counties. Main change to the forecast through tonight was to add the mention of patchy fog thanks to the recent rains combined with the overall lighter winds...with models focusing the best chances mainly across our Neb. counties.

Friday...

Models are in good agreement showing generally zonal upper level flow in place across the region to end the work week...with a good chunk of the daytime hours potentially dry. If fog does develop tonight, that could linger into the mid-morning hours...but shouldn't stick around much beyond that. Expecting to see generally partly cloudy skies...with a good jump in high temperatures, reaching well into the 80s and lower 90s. Main focus as we get into the afternoon hours will be with the placement of a sfc frontal boundary...and by early-mid afternoon, models aren't in too bad of agreement with its general location...running SW to NE roughly along a Harlan County to Merrick County line. This frontal boundary is expected to be the focus for additional thunderstorm development. Upper level forcing is lacking...but models show strong instability developing with dewpoints near 70 nosing into at least eastern portions of the forecast area, with some showing MLCAPE values potentially exceeding 3000 j/kg south of that frontal boundary. Deeper layer shear is also on the lower side, models generally showing around 25-30kts. If anything over the past few days, models have trended back on activity through the afternoon hours...holding activity off into the evening hours, with lift aided by an increasing low-level jet. Even then, and on into the overnight hours, models at least at this point show pretty limited coverage.

This weekend and on...

No notable changes were made to the forecast for this weekend on into next week...with periodic thunderstorm chances continuing. Looking at the big picture, there continue to be details that need ironing out between models. Another large upper level low/troughing looks to work its way onto the West Coast this weekend...helping draw a low pressure system northward out of the Srn Plains. The better chances with this system look to focus more on Sunday...but there are some broad differences with model QPF over the forecast area, with some showing the brunt of forcing and precip potentially sliding just off to our east. The start of the new work week...main question lies with how amplified the upper level pattern becomes, and are we more influenced by ridging trying to build north out of the Srn Plains or that western CONUS larger scale troughing. Confidence in precip chances lowers the further out you go in the forecast. Forecast highs in the 80s-90s...potentially climbing up near the 100 deg mark by the middle of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 655 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Tricky TAF forecast this morning due to wide range in conditions over short distances. For instance, appears GRI will remain mainly VFR next couple of hours thanks to a pocket of clearing in the stratus/fog. However, EAR remains socked in LIFR VSBYs and CIGs...though the clearing is also trying to make some advancement that way, as well. Went on the pessimistic side of things for EAR, keeping IFR to LIFR conditions in through 14Z, then some steady improvement. This COULD be a bit slow. Given the time of year and latest trends, don't think the improvement will be any later than 14-15Z. Will have to see if the remnant fog that likely lifts into a stratus deck lifts N and brings at least a few hours of MVFR CIGs to GRI, but that's not in there right now.

Otherwise, rest of the afternoon should be VFR with steady SErly winds.

For tonight, have some PROB30s beginning around sunset as some CAM guidance develops some elevated convection in the area. I didn't include any chances earlier than that as I think anything surface based favors areas a bit further E/SE. The elevated convection is also only medium confidence, at best, thus the PROB30 group and not prevailing. Expect considerable refinements throughout the day.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ046-060- 061-072>077-082>087. KS...None.