textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A few isolated showers today will be followed by more scattered activity in the evening. A more robust and widespread cluster of showers and weak thunderstorms will come late tonight into Friday morning (best potential between 3-11AM Friday).

- Around 0.25-0.5" of precipitation will be possible to fall across the area through Friday afternoon. The rest of the weekend (starting Friday evening) should remain mostly dry.

- Highs today in the 60s will gradually raise up to the mid to upper 80s again by Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A few isolated showers and weak thunderstorms will pass through the area today with increasing precipitation coverage and potential reserved for the evening and especially the late night to Friday morning timeframe (best potential between 3-11AM). The area continues to reside underneath broad southwest flow from the presence of weak ridging over the eastern half of the U.S. and broad troughing across the intermountain west region. A momentum transfer taking place today from an advancing southern Idaho to northern Utah centered jet streak, will dislodge a shortwave trough out into the Central Plains region by Friday morning.

This disturbance will kick up a cluster of showers and storms overnight tonight that will approach the area by early Friday morning (from a mix of isentropic and CVA based assent). Between 0.25-0.5" of precipitation will be possible to fall across the overnight to Friday afternoon period (the greatest precipitation amounts will be concentrated to the north and west). Though modest shear will be present from the presence of the mid-to-upper level disturbance (40-50kts of Bulk Shear), weak instability (<500J/kg of MUCAPE) from a less than ideal thermal environment (<7C/km mid-level lapse rates), should generally douse out any sort of severe weather potential (a strong storm or two could still be possible).

The last of the showers will come to an end later Friday morning to Friday afternoon followed by a break in the precipitation chances through the weekend (an isolated shower or two may still be possible in a small portion of the area ~10-20%). Besides the precipitation chances mainly tonight and Friday, temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend as skies clear behind these showers/storms. Highs remaining in the low to mid 60s today will take a steady ride up to the low to mid 80s by Sunday. Higher pressure being flushed out by the passing disturbance will spin the winds around from a southeasterly direction today to a west/northwesterly direction by Friday afternoon. Gusts through Friday will generally stay below 25MPH.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

This afternoon-Thursday afternoon...

A band of rain is steadily lifting north, currently impacting areas along/north of Highway 92 in Nebraska. As this band exits the area this afternoon, there will be a lull in precipitation through the mid evening hours. Aloft the area is under southwesterly flow, with ridging over the northeast and a trough over the southwest. A passing disturbance within this southwesterly flow brings the next chance for rain to the area during the late evening-overnight hours. The overall highest chances (35-50%) for scattered showers tonight will be along and south of Interstate 80.

The overall coverage of showers diminishes during the daytime hours on Thursday, though a few showers may linger throughout the day (most likely for areas west of Highway 183). Widespread cloud coverage keeps the area cool on Thursday, confining highs to the upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday evening-Friday Night...

Scattered showers/storms return Thursday evening/night as the next system moves into the Rockies/Plains. The heaviest and most consistent rain Thursday night looks to be for areas west of Highway 281 in Nebraska. Friday continues to be the day with the highest potential for off and on rain throughout the daytime hours, though not everywhere will be a "washout". Rain and cloud coverage results in another seasonably cool day as highs top out in the 60s. A cold front pushes through the area Friday afternoon(west)-night(east), with rain coming to an end behind the front. The overall highest rain accumulations through Friday night favor areas along/west of Highway 183. The 12z GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate that western portions of the area have a 50-60% chance for 0.5" or more of rain. Any rain exits the area by sunrise on Saturday as the cold front moves into the Midwest.

Saturday Onwards...

Sunshine returns to the area on Saturday with highs near normal, in the low-mid 70s. While the forecast currently remains dry, one last passing disturbance could bring low/light PoPs to western portions of the area Saturday afternoon-evening. In the wake of this departing system, ridging begins to build over the area this weekend- early next week. The result is dry and above normal temperatures Sunday through the end of the forecast period with highs in the 80s. Model spread begins to increase around the end of the forecast period as troughing moves into the western U.S.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A busy aviation forecast today comes as scattered showers, low ceilings and visibility reductions will all be expected within the next 24-hours.

As far as precipitation chances go, a dry forecast (<15% chances) is expected through at least 18z today (likely longer for KGRI) with precipitation chances looming in the area shortly after 18z (possibly ~25% chance in the KEAR area between 21-0z). A brief lull in precipitation chances between 2-6 (20-40% chances) will be followed by increasing chances again between 6-10z (60-80% chances) with precipitation very likely around 10-12z (>80% chances). A quick rumble of thunder may be possible at any point in the day (better chances overnight), though storms are not expected to become severe.

As for ceilings, cloud coverage building in between 12-18z this morning will develop ceiling to as low a 5,000ft with MVFR ceiling moving in shortly after 22z (low-end MVFR ceiling likely after 0z). IFR ceiling will be expected to form around 2z with low-end IFR to LIFR conditions becoming likely after 4z. Ceiling as low as 200-400ft will stay in place through 9z with heights rising again through the rest of the morning Friday.

Visibility reductions from rain showers (as low as 3-5SM) will be possible of 5z.

Winds will stay out of the southeast for a majority of the day (mainly between 120-160 degrees) with speeds between 5-15kts and with gusts as high as 20kts to occasionally 25kts.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.