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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s today and tomorrow will drop Tuesday following a cold frontal passage. Temperatures between Tuesday and Thursday will mainly range between the mid 40s to lower 60s.

- The next chance of precipitation (20-50%) lies Tuesday. Most areas should expect to receive little to no precipitation accumulation.

- Several other precipitation chances reside in the forecast this week. The overall best chances currently lies Wednesday night (60- 70%) and Friday (40-60%).

UPDATE

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Today:

Another pleasant day, though a touch on the warmer side, will be in store again today. Temperatures are forecast to peak in the mid 70s to mid 80s, or around 20-30 degrees above normal for this time of year. This jump up of around 10-20 degrees from yesterday's temperatures comes as an upper-level ridge blankets the region, additionally batting away any chance for precipitation. At the surface, steady southerly winds should mainly keep between 10-15 MPH with gusts as high as 20-25MPH possible across mainly the southeastern half the area. Lighter winds for locations near and northwest of the Tri-cities may even become light to variable at times. Given the limited dewpoints (30s to low 40s), RH values as low as 10-30% with steady to occasionally gusty winds, may introduce a few areas of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions, especially across a few southeastern portions of the area today.

Monday & Tuesday:

A very similar story is set to return for Monday. Highs will be likely to once again spread the 80s with the weak to steady southerly winds remaining in place. Meanwhile, the expansive ridging pattern aloft should keep its real estate for one more day, before an upstream Northwest U.S. shortwave centered trough takes over. This feature, currently waiting in the wings, will be expected to cross over to center stage on Tuesday. At the surface a cold front will begin to align across the foothills of the Northern Rockies, taking aim at the Central and Northern Plains sometime Tuesday morning.

This front will bring an end to the extended weekend warm up and also potentially a short break from the dry conditions. Winds behind the front Tuesday will swing back to a northerly direction, blowing between 20-25MPH during the day and gusting as high as 30-40MPH. Though precipitation chances return for Tuesday (20-50%), forecast amounts at this point in time do not appear to be overly impressive (0-0.1"). The better precipitation potential won't come until later on Wednesday (60-70%). Otherwise, expect to see temperatures drop around 20-30 degrees Tuesday with high forecast to range the 50s to low 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

This afternoon and Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are currently sitting in the 60s. Southerly winds gusting 35-45mph combined with relative humidity values in the teens are resulting in critical fire weather conditions across the area. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 10pm. Gusty southerly winds will continue into the evening hours, but steadily decrease after sunset. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Sunday...

Aloft ridging builds over the Rockies/Plains on Sunday, resulting in another warm day across the area. Highs climb into the 70s and 80s across the area. A push of westerly winds during the afternoon hours will allow western portions of the area to climb into the mid to upper 80s. Winds will be much lighter than on Saturday, with gusts generally below 20mph. The lighter winds will also keep fire weather concerns lower despite relative humidity values below 20% along and west of Highway 281. Still, an area of elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions remains possible Sunday afternoon across western portions of the area where gusts reach 20mph.

Monday...

The center of the ridge moves over the area on Monday with a shortwave trough moving into the western Rockies. Highs soar into the 80s to low 90s, warmest across southwestern portions of the area. Afternoon relative humidity values on Monday will be similar to Sunday, below 20% along/west of Highway 281. Light winds (gusts generally below 20mph) keep fire weather concerns lower. Enjoy this warmth while you can, as noticeably cooler weather is expected through the end of the forecast period.

Tuesday Onwards...

A shortwave trough and associated cold front move through the area Tuesday morning, bringing much cooler (seasonable) temperatures to the area. Northerly winds gusting 30-40mph are favored behind the front, continuing throughout the day on Tuesday. Precipitation chances return to the area behind the frontal passage. Anything that does fall on Tuesday looks to remain quite light, with the ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicating a less than 10% chance for 0.10" or more.

Southwesterly flow sets up across the area and persists through the end of the forecast period. Model spread within this southwesterly flow results in broad, continued PoPs throughout the latter half of the forecast period. This model spread brings some uncertainty as to how much precipitation the area will actually see, but overall accumulations do not look to be much at this time. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate a 50-70% chance for 0.10" through Friday morning and a less than 20% chance for 0.5", with the overall highest chances across east/southeast portions of the area. Some of this could fall as a rain/snow mix during the overnight hours but any winter impacts are not expected. A stronger shortwave trough looks to move through the Plains Friday night-Saturday, with the best PoP chances across eastern portions of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few clouds clearing later this afternoon are not expected to impact ceiling categories. VFR conditions are likely to retain through the 12z TAF period (80%+). Light winds out of the south this morning will blow between 10-15kts with occasional gusts as high as 20kts possible. Winds later this afternoon will lighten, becoming variable at times across the evening and overnight hours. No precipitation is expected.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.


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