textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Today through tonight: Mainly spotty showers/a few weak thunderstorms this morning, followed by what should be a mainly dry afternoon-early evening before more widespread showers/weak storms overspread our forecast area (CWA) tonight.

- Thursday through Saturday AM: Although it won't rain non-stop, these ~ 48 hours will feature various rounds of showers and mostly weak storms. Including what falls tonight, CUMULATIVE rain totals of 1-2" are likely most areas, with more localized 3-4+" amounts at least possible. Localized minor/nuisance flooding issues cannot be ruled out.

- Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon: This looks like a mostly dry stretch as we reside in between weather systems...a chance to dry out and warm up a little with high temps more solidly back into the 70s-80s.

- Our next system of interest (albeit a much "quicker hitter" than the first one) looks to bring another good chance of rain/thunderstorms (some possibly strong?) centered Monday evening into Tuesday (obviously lots of details yet to iron out at that time range).

- Beyond Tuesday (including the rest of next week): At least for now, this looks like a more sustained stretch of MAINLY DRY weather...something that will surely be welcomed by many and not just those trying to swing into harvest season.

UPDATE

Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS INCLUDING ANYTHING BEYOND THE FIRST 36 HOURS (beyond Thursday):

- Clearly the HIGHLIGHT of the next week is still the various/intermittent rain chances centered on tonight through Sat AM with minimal chance for severe storms (that hasn't changed). However, as higher-res models (such as RRFS) gradually start to cover more of this time frame, this forecaster is getting a little more concerned that we'll probably have at least small/localized pockets of the CWA (where exactly is still impossible to pin down) that get a little TOO MUCH RAIN on the order of 3-4+". Given that most of this will be spread out fairly well over the course of a few days, widespread/significant flooding sure seems unlikely. However, minor/nuisance flooding is certainly possible, and cannot argue with WPC assigning our entire CWA a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall on both the Day 2/3 outlooks.

- Although it will depend on mesoscale details still too far out in time to confidently assess, still think that Friday afternoon-early evening bears watching for MAYBE a "sneaky" strong to marginally-severe storm threat...especially in our southwestern CWA (as suggested by latest RRFS). SPC has opted to keep this period "general thunder" for now given the low confidence, would not be shocked to see later outlooks consider a Marginal Risk.

- While certainly far too out in time to provide any kind of confident detail, our next bigger low pressure system currently slated to roll through mainly Monday evening-Tuesday looks to bring another decent round of rain/thunderstorms (possibly at least strong/perhaps severe based on very preliminary machine-learning (ML) guidance), followed by what should be several days of drier and more "true" fall-like weather conditions. In fact...there are VERY EARLY hints (do not by any means take this to the bank) that Wed. Sept. 30 COULD be our first morning this fall with widespread low temps down into the 40s.

-- SHORTER-TERM DETAILS FOCUSED ONLY ON THESE NEXT 36 HOURS (through Thurs daytime:) - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM: No big surprises overnight-early this AM, as despite minimal forcing aloft...subtle mid level lift/warm-air advection has caused development of isolated/scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms...mainly within our northern/western CWA. Otherwise, low clouds have redeveloped over most of our CWA. Breezes are generally 8-15 MPH out of the east-southeast, with low temps on track to bottom out mainly mid-upper 50s.

- TODAY: Leaning heavily on shorter-term/higher-res models (such as HRRR), the short story is that chances for isolated/scattered showers and a few weak storms will continue tracking from west- to-east across our CWA this morning (also ending from west-to- east in the process). This afternoon then looks to be mostly (if not entirely) dry across our area. Temperatures will be heavily dictated by how efficiently low stratus gradually erodes/scatters out from south-southwest to north-northeast. Some of the latest data suggests that some of our northeast counties may struggle to see much sun/partial clearing, but given that temps have generally "overachieved" the last few days if anything, opted to nudge up highs slightly, aiming for a range from mainly low 70s northeast...to mid-upper 70s southwest (maybe even 80 degrees especially in Phillips/Rooks/Osborne). Winds especially this afternoon will reach breezy status out of the southeast...generally sustained 15-20 MPH/gusts 20-30 MPH (overall-strongest west).

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: As the first of a "parade" of low amplitude but moisture-laden disturbances rides into our region out of the Desert Southwest/Southern Rockies, areas of scattered to numerous showers and a few weak thunderstorms will gradually overspread more and more of our CWA as the night wears on (highest chances/coverage expected near and after midnight). Low temps should hold up slightly warmer than recent night...mainly upper 50s-low 60s.

- THURSDAY DAYTIME: Though it will not rain the ENTIRE day in any given location (in fact the latest HRRR actually suggests that much of especially the northwest 1/2 of our CWA could MAYBE have a mostly dry afternoon), the overall consensus of most models is that scattered to numerous showers/some weak thunderstorms will be around at least parts of our area (if not most of it) throughout the day, so plan on wet weather and be pleasantly surprised if you catch several hours of dry. Given the expected widespread cloud/precip, high temps should only reach the mid-upper 60s at best most of our CWA, with any possible 70s most favored in our KS counties.

Friday and Beyond

Latest 12z EPS and GEFS guidance suggest that sometime early Friday morning the first stationary jet maximum will get pulled off to the east by the south-central CONUS ridge, while the next jet in the wave train sets back up over NE. As this next mid- level wave arrives and gradually passes, our on-and-off precip chances will continue through Saturday. Friday afternoon currently looks best for some thunder to mix in with rain as the 12z RRFS and 12z GFS both try to develop a small bit of MLCAPE over our area Friday afternoon in association with the trough aloft. Aside from precip, surface winds will likely spike again during the daylight hours on Friday with gusts across the CWA able to reach 25 - 30 mph once more.

While trends will continue to be monitored, models have remained consistent that our precip-dominated pattern will end around Saturday morning, giving way to a dry but relatively warmer weekend. As a potential worst-case scenario through the event, 13z NBM 95th percentile cumulative rainfall totals by Saturday morning sit right around 2.5 - 3.25 inches. Projected temperatures for this weekend have continued to uptrend rather substantially, with latest indications of widespread upper 70s to even mid 80s for our KS counties. Still, confidence remains that heat indices will not be a concern.

Finally, while a ways out still, let's keep an eye on next Monday night into Tuesday for a potential return to organized thunderstorms. A more classic longwave trough may arrive in the CONUS late next Monday based on the latest GEFS and EPS alike, which may allow for a more seasonal thunderstorm setup. Trends will be monitored.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 710 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): By far the most pressing (and highest confidence) aviation concern is the likelihood for several hours of continued sub-VFR ceiling this morning into early afternoon. This evening and overnight the potential for passing showers/weak thunderstorms arrives, along with perhaps a return to sub-VFR ceiling at some point early Thursday morning (this is of lower confidence). As for winds, direction will remain fairly consistent out of the southeast to south-southeast throughout the period. Sustained speeds both this morning and again overnight should mainly hold at-or-below 12KT, but especially this afternoon will be somewhat breezy with sustained speeds a few KT either side of 15KT common, and gusts 20-25KT. Getting back to those possible chances for passing showers and/or a few weak storms, there is a small chance that they could arrive already this evening, but with higher confidence later in the night have assigned the only PROB30 group to the final 6 hours (06-12Z).

- Ceiling trends/uncertainties: As it turned out (and after losing confidence in it somewhat with the previous 06Z issuance), a widespread batch of IFR stratus ceilings DID indeed blossom over the area within 1-2 hours of 06Z issuance, and remains very much present at this time. There is very high confidence that IFR will remain entrenched through most/all of this morning, before a gradual lifting of ceiling to MVFR and then (in theory) a return to VFR conditions by around 19-20Z as low clouds lift and/or scatter out. Through most of the remainder of the period there is high confidence in VFR conditions with any ceiling mainly at-or-above 5K ft. However, very late in the period (06-12Z), passing showers/weak storms could briefly reduce visibility to sub-VFR, and there is also a possibility that at least an MVFR (perhaps an IFR?) ceiling could try to return. However, confidence is fairly low out at that time range, so have maintained prevailing VFR for now.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.