textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Swath of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to push east across the area this afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity.

- After a relative lull this evening...another round of showers/storms starts working its way in from the west, mainly after midnight, but especially closer to dawn. These chances will continue on through midday/early afternoon...with the best chances roughly in the I-80 to state line corridor. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity.

- Forecast for Wed night on through the weekend is overall drier. After another cool day Wed with highs in the 70s...temps are back in the 80s for Thursday, then 90s to near 100 for the weekend. For Sat-Mon, heat index values around 100-105 are possible, especially across the southern half of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Currently through this evening...

A swath of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way east across the forecast area today...a trend that will continue on through the rest of this afternoon. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing generally zonal flow in place across the region. Across the CONUS, upper level low pressure is spinning in the GA/SC area, while the main area of high pressure centered over the Desert SW is being dampened by low pressure/broad troughing over much of central/western Canada into the northern CONUS. Satellite imagery shows shortwave disturbances embedded in the main overall flow...one of which is helping drive the ongoing activity across the forecast area. At the surface, the forecast sits just north of the main cold front...which has stalled some, currently sitting from SW/south central KS up into ESErn IA. Behind this frontal boundary, winds have been gusty (esp. by August standards) out of the NNE...gusts have mainly been around 25-30 MPH. Between the plentiful cloud cover, scattered precipitation and sitting on the north side of the frontal boundary...not surprising that in spots temperatures have been struggling so far today. By the time it's all said and done...forecast highs across southern areas will turn out alright...but some spots across south central NE may not end up even hitting 70 degrees. Still some time to recover behind this activity anywhere there are breaks in the cloud cover. For the rest of today...main concern lies with the ongoing activity. There have been spots at times that have perked up in strength...but the overall environment is not supportive of a notable severe weather threat. Not out of the question that some storms could be strong...with gusty winds/small hail the main threats. Instability is sitting around 500-1000 j/kg across central/NErn areas, closer to 1500 j/kg in the SE...but both low and mid level lapse rates are pretty low. Timing of the main swath has it clearing the forecast area early this evening...and while there could be some isolated lingering activity, models showing a relative lull...with better lift along an increasing LLJ looking to focus just off to our east.

Later tonight through Wednesday...

Mainly after midnight tonight, models showing another embedded weaker shortwave disturbance making its way out of the Rockies and onto the Plains...ushering the next chance for showers/thunderstorms. Higher-res models aren't in too bad of agreement showing that as far as timing goes...the better chances hold off until closer to/after 09Z. Little more uncertainty with the overall coverage initially, so PoPs remain broad with chances in place CWA-wide. The overall best chances run roughly from around sunrise through the early afternoon hours...dropping off from west to east, possibly dry area-wide by mid-afternoon. The highest chances remain focused through the heart of the forecast area, roughly from I-80 to near the state line...though at least 20-30 percent chances are outside that corridor to cover the rest of the area. Not anticipating this activity to be severe...with the SPC Day 2 outlook remaining well outside our boundaries.

At the surface, winds won't be as gusty as they have been today...as high pressure slides through the area. Winds turn more easterly with time, speeds topping out around 10 MPH. The daytime precipitation chances and lingering cloud cover make for a tricky temperature forecast...as there will be some opportunity to recover if precip does in fact clear out by mid- afternoon and we can get breaks in the cloud cover. Forecast highs through the central portions of the area are in the lower 70s, with mid-70s to the north and south.

Thursday and on...

Looking toward the end of this week on into the start of next week...overall there hasn't been any notable changes in the forecast. Big picture-wise...models continue to show the upper level pattern through this timeframe flexing to varying degrees of west-northwest flow. The main area of upper level high pressure remains centered generally over the Desert SW...at times able to amplify a bit more early-on thanks to deeper troughing over portions of the eastern CONUS...but then is dampened by additional activity moving onto western Canada/far NNWrn CONUS. Spotty, generally low-end preciptiation chances remain in the forecast...as there is still the potential for periodic shortwave disturbances to push through the region...but confidence in the timing and tracking of any of these disturbances is pretty low at this point.

Forecast continues to show a warming trend from the 70s of Wednesday...with low-mid 80s on Thursday increasing into the 90s- near 100 for this weekend/Monday. Heat index values around 100-105 are not out of the question Sat-Mon, especially for the southern half of the forecast area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 720 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): By far the main challenges are determining: 1) how much of the period features MVFR vs. VFR ceiling...2) The likelihood/areal coverage of showers/non-severe thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday morning. Other than an outside chance of briefly- reduced visibility in any heavier downpours, VFR visibility should persist. As for winds, assuming no "surprise" enhancement from convective outflow, they will be a very minimal issue, with sustained speeds at-or-below 10KT throughout, as direction prevails northeasterly to east-northeastly for the most part.

- Ceiling trends/uncertainties: Admittedly, 00Z TAFs have been geared a bit more toward the more pessimistic side...maintaining more MVFR vs. VFR through much of the period. That being said, while things are indeed starting off MVFR out of the gate this evening, obs from sites slightly "upstream" suggest that within a few hours ceilings could rise to low-end VFR levels (3-4K ft. AGL)...and perhaps remain there much of the night. Should this occur, look for amendments. Assuming that MVFR does prevail (or eventually return at some point Wednesday morning) as currently anticipated, it will likely lift and/or scatter out back to VFR at some point Wednesday afternoon. While some of the more optimistic model data has this occurring by as early as 16-18Z...have hung onto MVFR a bit longer in TAFs (until 20Z).

- Shower/thunderstorm potential: While at least spotty/isolated showers and weak thunderstorms could potentially develop already within these next few hours, this potential and coverage is expected to be spotty enough that even a PROB30 group seems unwarranted. As a result, have held off on a formal PROB30 until the 10-16Z time frame...as by then somewhat more widespread convection should develop in the area. Considered possibly introducing TEMPO for this, but with some of the latest higher-res models keeping the bulk of this activity JUST south of KEAR/KGRI...went with PROB30 for now.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.