textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- 20-40% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms north of I-80 this evening primarily between 5-10 PM. Overall trends show a drier evening with potentially nuisance type storms vs. stronger more organized thunderstorms.

- Dry for Sunday and the start of the work week.

- Periodic chances for thunderstorms for the second half of the work-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This evening and Tonight: While this morning's model guidance was a bit more robust, the trend into the afternoon on the high-res hourly runs have trended less active and more dry. This seems to coincide with the assessment of the meso environment. The atmosphere across much of central and south central Nebraska is impacted by this morning's lingering activity shower/thunderstorm activity. This has created a cooler, more stable atmosphere with less shear. Model simulations have trended to develop thunderstorms north of the boundaries in the Sandhills, and then quickly dissipate them as they move southeast. While this isn't an all clear, the trend is in the right direction for any evening 4th celebrations. There could be some nuisance type activity primarily north of I-80 this evening. Feel this is a 20-40% chance, that is lower than I felt this morning when guidance was showing more robust and organized convection.

Dry and seasonal for Sunday and the early part of the work week. Upper level ridging builds in from the southwest. High temperatures will be near 90 degrees.

By midweek, a couple of disturbances will move eastward, breaking down the ridge and making the upper level flow more zonal. This will bring more chances for off and on precipitation through next Saturday. Beyond Saturday, more amplified upper ridging builds into the intermountain west which will keep our area under northwesterly flow and keep the potential for an active period. Temperatures for the second half of the work week are similar, with highs near 90, or slightly less in the upper 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 559 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Nearly all signs point to quiet aviation forecast period for both KGRI/KEAR. Thunderstorms to the north and west this evening will spill over some high clouds through the evening and overnight. As of now, we aren't expecting those storms to impact KEAR or KGRI despite a slow drift south.

Overnight in the KGRI area, there may be an increase in mid-clouds as some weakish overnight convection could develop to the east. For now, just some scattered clouds were included.

Eventually, the high clouds will thin leaving nearly clear skies Monday. No visibility restrictions are expected and winds will be generally under 10 knots throughout the forecast, with light and variable conditions through the the night tonight, and a turn to the south/southeast by Monday afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.