textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire weather concerns have really ramped up/taken "center stage" for this afternoon and especially Monday afternoon, as our latest forecast has trended at least slightly higher on temperatures/wind speeds and considerably lower on relative humidity/dewpoints (see separate Fire Weather section below for more details).

- Opposite of fire weather concerns, any concerns for severe thunderstorms (and really any thunderstorms at all) have likely diminished for this afternoon-evening, and in fact SPC has completely removed any severe risk categories that previously existed for our southern/eastern counties.

- Our next thunderstorm chances arrive Tuesday afternoon- evening, and although it's too soon to completely rule out at least a spotty severe threat, at least for now severe storm potential appears overall-low.

- In terms of SEVERE thunderstorm potential, it's still a long ways out, but early indications suggest we'll need to keep an eye on especially our southeast counties Friday afternoon- evening.

- Although any accumulation currently appears little-if-any, there is a non-zero chance that a touch of snow could materialize as temperatures fall late Fri night-Saturday.

- Speaking of temperatures: no major changes from previous forecast, with seasonably-warm weather (highs 70s-80s) prevailing today-Thursday, before a decent shot of cooler air arrives for the weekend with highs currently only aimed 50s for Saturday.

- Finally: still a ways out and not a "sure thing" but we might need to shake the dust off Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Warnings for next weekend if currently-projected low temps in the upper 20s-low 30s pan out (spring vegetative growth has been a bit ahead of schedule after all).

UPDATE

Issued at 508 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Monday):

- Starting with the longer-term first (Tuesday and beyond), there were no truly "significant" changes worth noting versus previous forecast. It still looks like at least scattered shower/thunderstorm potential will return Tuesday afternoon- overnight, followed by a break in precip chances centered on most of Thursday-Friday, before more chances for rain/thunderstorms and MAYBE a touch of snow arrives Friday afternoon-Saturday as the next large-scale upper level trough swings through. For all other longer-term related notes, please refer to KEY MESSAGES above.

- In the shorter term (these next 36-48 hours), this forecaster was admittedly a bit surprised to encounter the somewhat "abrupt" uptick in fire weather concerns for this afternoon and especially Monday afternoon, and also (but perhaps less- surprisingly) the downturn in spotty severe storm potential for this afternoon-evening (models had been trending that way over the last 24+ hours after all).

-- DETAILED FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through Monday daytime-early evening): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: In the wake of yesterday's very localized bout of strong to severe storms in our extreme southeastern CWA (including our first official brief/weak tornado of 2026 as documented by at least a few chasers in southeastern Thayer County), it's been a very-breezy but thus-far precipitation-free overnight.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm persistent southwesterly flow aloft over the Central Plains, as we remain well-downstream from a large scale trough/closed low centered just off the northern CA coast. It appears a subtle/weak disturbance is currently translating from southwest-to-northeast through mainly KS, and is setting off some light precip activity that could clip our far southeast counties over the next several hours (maybe even a weak thunderstorm?).

At the surface, a fairly strong pressure gradient tied to a low pressure center over the Dakotas...along with mixing into a stout southerly low level jet...has resulted in a breezy to even somewhat windy night, with sustained southerly speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH, although these speeds are in the process of SLOWLY diminishing from west-to-east across our CWA. These steady breezes and at least some mid-high level cloud cover are keeping temperatures quite mild, with official overnight lows expected to bottom out no cooler than 55-62 in most areas.

- TODAY (see separate Fire Weather section below for more on that topic): Officially, our latest forecast has all but removed precip chances from our entire CWA...especially for this afternoon- evening which had previously been under at least a Marginal Risk for spotty severe storm potential. Although we cannot call it a TRULY zero chance that a few very spotty/rogue showers thunderstorms could TRY bubbling up during peak heating of the later afternoon especially in our southern (mainly KS) counties, a more southwesterly component to the surface wind field (compared to the more southeasterly component yesterday along a warm front and weak convergence zone that helped to fire off the isolated strong/severe storms), in tandem with less convective instability versus yesterday, looks far more likely to keep any thunderstorm development at bay. In fact, not only did SPC remove the previous Marginal Risk from our east-southeast zones, but they even pulled the "general thunderstorm" category.

All that being said, and backing up to this morning, did go with a slight chance for light showers for the southeast fringes of our CWA (mainly Mitchell/Jewell/Thayer counties) through around 9 AM, as the far north/northwest edges of some shower activity could barely skirt our southeast edges before departing off to the east. A weak thunderstorm can't be totally completely ruled out.

In other departments today, while parts of our CWA reached the 80s yesterday, today our ENTIRE CWA is expected to reach at least 80-85 degrees (these highs bumped up slightly from previous forecast). While partly to mostly cloudy skies (especially in our southern/eastern counties) could get warming off to a somewhat slow start, clouds should mostly vacate from west-to-east with time today. The increased sunshine, along with overall fairly "tame" southerly to westerly winds (gusts mainly under 20 MPH this afternoon except far north where higher fire weather concerns reside), should make for a fairly pleasant day for those who enjoy things on the warmer side (humidity levels/dewpoints also lower for this afternoon versus yesterday as they mix-down).

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Although a VERY spotty/rogue shower or sprinkle cannot be totally ruled out, our forecast officially remains dry. A weak surface low tracking generally near the NE/SD border overnight will keep us in steady southerly breezes...BUT lighter than the ongoing night...with sustained speeds mainly only 10-15 MPH/gusts mainly under 20 MPH. Low temps are forecast to drop at least 5 degrees cooler than the ongoing night/early morning...aimed from mainly upper 40s-low 50s west...to mid- upper 50s east.

- MONDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING (see separate Fire Weather section below for more on that primary topic of concern): Unlike today, Monday never really held any convective concerns to begin with, as it's been pretty clear for at least a few days (and even more so now) that any legitimate threat for thunderstorms/possible severe storms would focus well off to our east and/or northeast (main threat area now looks to be well up into the northern IA/MN/WI region). Instead, here locally we get another seasonably-warm (some would say hot) day with breezy-to- windy west to southwest winds that could easily gust 30+ MPH especially in most of our southern/eastern CWA (probably a little lighter north and west). Like today, high temps were increased slightly versus previous forecast, with most places now aimed 83-88 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Today...

Following the scattered storms from last night across much of our central to south and eastern portions of the area, lingering cloud coverage has followed us into today. Despite these clouds, breezy southerly warm air advecting winds have helped push temperatures up into the upper 60s and 70s. The breezy southerly winds gusting as high as 25-35MPH will be expected to remain somewhat steady overnight (gusts 15-30MPH) as a surface low continue to strengthening over eastern Montana. The main question today will be if and where afternoon to nighttime thunderstorms develop.

With temperatures rising this afternoon, instability has also increase. SBCAPE values will peak between 1,000-2,500 J/KG with 6-8 C/KM low-to-mid level lapse rates. Though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out (20-30kts of 0-1km shear), the primarly hazard tonight would be hail up to the size of ping pong balls. As result, the SPC has upgraded central, eastern and southern portions of the are into a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5 for mainly locations near, east and south of the Tri-Cities) as well as a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across the remainder of the forecast area for today.

The big question tonight will be IF storms develop outside of a few isolated places given weak synoptic forcing. The upper-level shortwave trough will not arrive until the overnight hours. as result, activity before midnight may be fairly isolated to a few locations that are able to break through the low-level inversional CAP. Storms that develop across the overnight hours may have less energy to feed off from, thus the severe potential is expected to wane through the overnight hours.

Sunday...

Temperatures will continue to rise Sunday as clouds clear partially with the continuation of the southerly to southwesterly winds (directions veering as the surface low moves across the Dakotas). Highs for Sunday are currently forecast to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Wind speeds will be at their strongest point early in the day (10-20MPH and gusting up to 30MPH) later lightening to only 5-10MPH and gusting up to 20MPH by the later afternoon and evening hours.

A limited east to southeastern portion of the area could see a storm or two in the evening. Any storm that does develop will once again have the chance to become severe due to sufficient shear and instability east of a passing dryline. Confidence remains somewhat limited (20-30% chance) as storms that do fire, may do so after the dryline has completely exited the area to the east. The SPC has included areas southeast of a line from Rooks county Kansas to Polk county Nebraska underneath a Marginal risk.

Monday and Beyond...

Troughing across the Western U.S. during the first half of the week will set up southwest upper-level flow across the Central Plains. A few embedded shortwave disturbances will likely emerge out of this flow, each bringing along at least a small chance for precipitation. The next chance for precip (20-40%) will come Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as a surface low deepens across the area. Confidence remains somewhat limited as both the GFS and ECMWF global deterministic models keep most of the shower and storm activity east of the local area. A similar story as Sunday may play out where the key forcing mechanism (cold front) may pass through earlier in the day, minimizing the afternoon to evening storm potential.

Beyond the mid-week precipitation chances, temperatures will likely peak in the mid 70s and 80s through Thursday with winds (outside of Tuesday night) maintaining a southerly to westerly orientation. The warmer temperatures with occasional periods of gusty winds will bring back near-critical fire weather conditions to at least a potion of the area each day Monday through the end of next week. Brief critical fire weather conditions from time to time can't be ruled out across a few southwest locations mainly on Tuesday afternoon.

The next feature to note will be the passage of a cold front later in the week that will knock highs down some heading into next weekend (back to the 50s and 60s). Another precipitation chance may trail behind the front Friday night into Saturday as another and likely more amplified trough approaches the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and precipitation- free conditions throughout the period, with even less concern for brief MVFR ceiling this morning than for 06Z TAFs. That leaves winds as the main concern, with the overall-strongest surface speeds (gusts 20+KT) right away these first few hours, with gusts thereafter through the vast majority of the period prevailing no higher than 15-20KT.

- Very slight MVFR ceiling concerns: Low potential for brief MVFR ceiling this morning that was outlined with 06Z TAF issuance now appears even less probable, so have removed any lower cloud group from KEAR altogether, while leaving "FEW015" in for KGRI through 15Z...just to hint at the extremely small potential for a lower cloud deck.

- Wind details: - Surface winds: The strongest winds of the period will be right away these first 2-3 hours (sustained around 15KT/gusts around 20KT from the south-southwest). However, the vast majority of the period will feature lighter speeds commonly sustained no higher than 9-14KT/gusts no higher than 15-20KT...as direction prevails from mainly west-southwesterly late this morning into this afternoon, and then more southerly this evening-overnight.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): Any strong LLWS from the overnight-early morning hours has likely now weakened below the TAF-inclusion criteria of 30+KT shear magnitude between the surface and 1-2K ft. AGL, so LLWS is no longer included. Some fairly weak LLWS could again materialize tonight, but shear magnitude currently looks to remain under 30KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 508 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Expected fire weather conditions have trended "worse", versus previous forecast, mainly due to a slight increase in expected westerly to southwesterly wind speeds, but more so a noticeable decrease to expected dewpoints/relative humidity (RH). Thanks to these lower dewpoints and high temps reaching the low-mid 80s most areas, RH is now forecast to plunge to at least 15-25% across roughly the northwestern 2/3rds of our CWA. Fortunately, westerly to southwesterly wind gusts look to only top out no higher than 15-24 MPH in most places, keeping the fire weather concerns at "near-critical" levels. However, the main exception is in our far north (Valley/Greeley counties), where wind gusts appear more favored to reach/slightly exceed 25 MPH for at least a few hours, thus breaching critical thresholds. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is now in effect from 12-7 PM for these two counties.

- MONDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Compared to today, fire weather concerns have trended even "worse" for Monday afternoon-evening, as both RH (likely lower than today) and wind speeds (likely higher than today) are now expected. Starting with RH, it is now forecast to plunge to at least 10-20% across our entire forecast area. As for west- southwesterly wind gusts, they are now forecast to reach at least 25-30 MPH (maybe even 35 MPH?)...especially in both our KS counties and also several counties along/east of Highway 281 in Nebraska. Meanwhile, at least for now, winds look a little lighter over most western/northern counties in our Nebraska CWA (lower potential for gusts 25+ MPH).

In hindsight, we probably "should have" pursued a formal Fire Weather Watch on this shift for the areas of greatest concern, but would now fully expect day shift to "pull the trigger" on a Monday fire weather headline unless current expectations unexpectedly change.

- TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND: Will not dive into details just yet given it's still a few-to- several days away, but at least portions of our CWA could easily meet critical fire weather thresholds especially Tuesday and Thursday, so this bears watching as these days draw closer in time.

-- NOTE: - NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039-040. KS...None.