textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- While there remains a "non-zero" (but small) chance for a spotty strong thunderstorm to at least flirt with our far north-northeastern counties through 10-11 PM, it's becoming increasingly apparent that our risk for a few severe storms this evening (albeit was never high to begin with with "only" a Marginal Risk from SPC) is lower than it appeared 24 hours ago.

- There is a low (20-30%) chance for isolated thunderstorms again Monday afternoon and evening. IF storms develop, a few could be on the strong side, but the overall severe threat is low.

- More widespread rain/t-storm chances arrive Wednesday night into Thursday, with continued off/on chances through next weekend. A few strong to severe storms cannot be totally ruled out, but the severe threat remains low (especially for late May).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Satellite shows an area of deepening cumulus over southwest Nebraska. This will be the area to monitor as it slides across central Nebraska and northern Kansas late this afternoon into early evening. CAMs indicate that coverage should remain pretty isolated, but convective parameters are favorable for a few of these to become strong to marginally severe (MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg and effective shear ~30kts). Relatively dry low levels would be favorable for downburst winds. This will likely be the primary hazard, although some severe hail cannot be completely ruled out as well. Any storms that develop should fade by 9-10pm with the loss of diurnal heating.

Monday will trend a few degrees warmer than today, and many areas are anticipated to reach the low 90s, aided by a steady south wind. Isolated storms are again possible, although CAMs indicate that this will be more favorable over the Sandhills, potentially nudging into northwestern portions of the forecast area. Shear is not impressive tomorrow, so an organized severe threat is even less likely than today.

Tuesday is favored to remain mostly dry, but rain/tstorm chances increase again Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday. This will be in response to a shortwave moving across the central Plains ahead of a deeper upper low over the west coast. Off and on chances for thunderstorms then continue through the end of the week as the upper low gradually ejects over the northern Plains. Unfortunately, the upper-level pattern is expected to be "messy" which makes it difficult to pin down specific details. But, as mentioned in the Key Messages, the severe threat does not look particularly threatening. The GEFS CSU-MLP severe probs remain below 5% through next week. This is probably partly influenced by uncertainty on timing/evolution of the upper level pattern, but is still well below climatology (~10%) for late May.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 709 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Extremely-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout the period (only limited amounts of mid-high level clouds), and any small chance for thunderstorms that previously existed for early this evening also appears to be quickly fading. Very late in this valid period Monday afternoon (mainly after 22Z), thunderstorms could develop within 25-50 miles north-through- west of KGRI/KEAR, but fairly high confidence that they will avoid both sites through at least 00Z.

That leaves winds as by far the main issue, including slightly- strong surface winds, and moderately-strong low level wind shear (LLWS) this evening into early Monday morning.

- Surface winds: Southerly winds will remain elevated throughout the period, with sustained speeds at-or-above 15KT the vast majority of the time. This evening into Monday morning, gusts will commonly top out at least 20-25KT, with a slight drop-off occurring a few hours either side of sunrise. As the day wears on, speeds will only gradually increase, with afternoon sustained speeds commonly 17-20KT/gusts 25+KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): Despite the breezy surface winds, a very strong south- southwesterly low level jet developing overnight will cause winds to accelerate to at least 45-50KT within the lowest 2K ft. AGL, resulting in moderately-strong LLWS magnitudes of 30-35+KT. Given that the direction of these strong lower-level winds will gradually shift from more southerly to more southwesterly with time, have maintained two LLWS groups in TAFs (the first valid 03-09Z and the second 09-13Z).

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.