textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Expecting much of the daytime hours today to be dry, with mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies. Southerly winds increase, with highs reaching well into the 80s. Late this afternoon- evening, potential will increase for some isolated-scattered storms across western portions of the area. Can't rule out some being strong-severe, large hail/damaging winds would be the main threats.

- Memorial Day is similar, expecting much of the day to be quiet, with increasing potential for storms late in the day across western areas. More uncertainty with coverage, as forcing/shear is weaker. Highs in the upper 80s-near 90 are expected.

- The rest of the week has plenty of precipitation chances in the forecast...but confidence in the details is low due to the potential for a messy upper level pattern to develop across the CONUS.

UPDATE

Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data showing a shortwave trough axis continuing to push east across the region early this morning...extending south from an area of low pressure over south central portions of Canada. Elsewhere across the CONUS, ridging extends along the East Coast...with generally zonal flow set up over the Rockies/West Coast. Scattered showers/storms developed late Sat afternoon-evening and made their way into the forecast area, but waned in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and have since diminished altogether. Quiet conditions are expected the rest of tonight. At the surface, winds continue out of the south-southeast across the forecast area, as we sit between departing high pressure to the east and a trough axis through the High Plains...but it remains a weaker set up, so winds are around 5-10 MPH.

Today and tonight...

Expecting that most of the daytime hours today will be dry...with plenty of sun at least through early afternoon. Models showing that ahead of a subtle mid-level shortwave disturbance moving out onto the Plains...a tightening sfc pressure gradient will bring increasing southerly winds to the forecast area. Sustained speeds around 15-20 MPH and gusts around 25-30 MPH will be possible. This increased southerly flow will bring dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s to the forecast area...with high temps climbing into the mid-upper 80s. As we get into the mid-late afternoon/peak heating hours, there will be increasing potential for isolated-scattered thunderstorms to develop off to our west along a sfc frontal boundary across western KS/NE. Because the upper level forcing is on the weaker side, models are showing the overall coverage remaining on the scattered side of things...with some differences with just how much of the forecast area is ultimately impacted. Those differences are keeping the forecast precipitation chances broad in nature, and on the lower side, mainly in the 20-30 percent range. Models are showing the potential for MLCAPE values to reach/exceed 1500 j/kg by late in the day, especially over the northern half of the forecast area. Deeper layer shear remains on the lower side, generally 25-35 kts. SPC's Day 1 Marginal Risk area covers the forecast area...large hail (esp across the northern half with more instability) and damaging winds look to be the primary hazards. The loss of daytime heating through the evening hours should bring a diminishing trend to activity...do have some low chance PoPs lingering through midnight, with the rest of the night dry.

Memorial Day...

Monday in many ways looks to be similar to Sunday...with much of the daytime hours ending up dry. In the upper levels, models continue to show the pattern transitioning from the generally zonal flow today to more southwesterly on Monday...as one area of low pressure works into the Desert SW and another approaches the Pac NW. At the surface, we remain set up east of that trough axis...keeping winds southerly, and again potentially gusty. With the continued southerly flow, models showing dewpoints in the lower 60s working their way into mainly the eastern half of the forecast area...and high temps are forecast to reach the upper 80s-near 90. Again from mid- afternoon on (peak heating)...there will be the potential for thunderstorms to develop. Models showing upper level forcing being pretty weak...and there is uncertainty exactly where storms may fire/placement of sfc boundaries. There is also uncertainties with the overall coverage/evolution of any activity...due to the weak forcing, but models also show the deeper layer shear being even lower than today...perhaps only topping out around 20-25 kts. Admittedly, the current forecast precipitation chances are pretty broad late Monday afternoon-early/mid evening...likely to be trimmed on the eastern edge depending on how models trend. Not out of the question that some of these storms could be on the strong side...but the weak forcing/shear keeps the severe threat low, and the SPC Day 2 Outlook keeps our area in the general thunder mention. Similar to today...whatever storms do develop should wane with the loss of daytime heating.

Tuesday on...

The mid to late week period unfortunately still has plenty of details to iron out as far as precipitation chances go. Models have remained consistent showing the pattern over the western CONUS becoming dominated by a large area of low pressure digging south along the West Coast...then potentially centered over the NV/UT/ID border area around 12Z. The pattern across the central CONUS has the potential to be a messy one...with models showing a ridge axis extending NEward from the SErn CONUS into the MN/western Dakotas area, blocked by low pressure/troughing increasingly influencing the NErn CONUS...while another disturbance may be working its way north out of the Srn Plains. Confidence in the forecast, especially Wednesday and on, is really low...hard to argue with the widespread precipitation chances from the NBM with the differences to iron out in this pattern's evolution.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Diurnally-driven cumulus is bubbling over the western 2/3rds of Nebraska and down into NW Kansas. This is expected to continue to develop this afternoon and move across the area this evening as high-based showers and thunderstorms. Currently, shear is pretty lackluster, but is expected to increase into the evening hours, which will potentially allow storms to coalesce into one or more line segments. Instability falls off quickly into central Nebraska/Kansas, therefore severe weather remains unlikely. Nevertheless, these high-based showers/storms could produce some gusty winds this evening (evidenced on HRRR gust output) and perhaps some small hail in the strongest updrafts.

Sunday will trend noticably warmer than today as the upper trough moves out of the northern Plains and we see stronger southerly winds at the surface. Widespread highs in the 80s are expected, with some locations in southwest parts of the area making a run at 90 degrees. Thunderstorms are again expected to develop and move west-east across the area in the late afternoon and evening. But, unlike today, convective parameters are more favorable for a few storms to become severe. MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg combined with deep-layer shear of 30-35kt would support a severe hail threat, and possibly a few severe wind gusts as well. Nearly the entire area is now in a "Marginal" (level 1 of 5) severe risk area.

Overall, Monday is expected to be similar to Sunday, but the thunderstorm potential is more uncertain and likely to be more isolated. Therefore, SPC has not introduced a severe outlook.

A deep upper low is forecast to move into the western CONUS, which will eventually bring more widespread rain/thunderstorm chances to the area Wednesday-Saturday. Unfortunately, the evolution of this system is rather uncertain and therefore details on timing are hard to pin down at the moment. At this time, the overall severe risk doesn't look particularly concerning, especially for late May The GEFS CSU-MLP severe probs remain less than 5% each day through Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Models continue to show the potential for isolated-scattered precipitation late today-early evening...so kept the PROB30 mention going, but confidence in the terminal sites seeing any impact is not high at this point. Winds through this period remain southerly...by late morning gusts near 25-30 MPH will be possible, and look to continue on into the evening hours. Models also showing the potential for LLWS at both sites from around midnight on through the end of this period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.