textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Late tonight into early Sat AM (1-8 AM), our entire forecast area (CWA) goes under either a Freeze Warning or Frost Advisory, as low temps are forecast to bottom out 27-36 degrees most places.

- High confidence continues in a dry weekend (once any showers/weak storms fade away this evening), with warmer temperatures (highs mainly 70s/lows mainly 40s) and no frost/freeze concerns.

- Precipitation chances early-mid next week: Intermittent chances for showers/thunderstorms return mainly Monday afternoon through Wednesday. IF we get any stronger thunderstorms during this time (not necessarily severe), they appear most favored Monday afternoon-evening.

- Temperatures next week: After peaking on Monday (highs near 80 many areas), especially Tues-Wed bring another decent cool- down with highs currently only projected near-60 and overnight lows mainly 30s (perhaps some additional frost concerns Tues night and/or Wed night?). An upward rebound back to highs upper 60s-upper 70s is then expected for Thurs-Fri.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 434 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No truly "major" changes to speak of, with the Key Messages above giving a decent overview of the highlights.

- That being said, on the more minor side of things, high temps have trended down very slightly for Sunday...but a bit farther out they have trended a good 2-5 degrees cooler than previous forecast for Wed-Thurs, as the mid-week cool down looks a little more pronounced than before.

- All in all though, nothing all that unusual about the next week for early May, as on positive notes we: 1) appear to be lacking in severe thunderstorm concerns (will need to keep an eye on Monday though)...2) Do not currently foresee any critical fire weather issues. On a negative note, unfortunately rainfall does not look abundant, but hopefully at least SOME places can pick up at least 0.25" with the intermittent chances mainly Mon-Wed, and the lack of "higher end heat" should also help keep soil moisture evaporation to a relative minimum.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Fri. May 8): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 330 PM: Overall, certainly no big surprises today. As expected, isolated to scattered light showers and a FEW weak thunderstorms have materialized over our KS counties, while north of the state line a smattering of sprinkles have developed at least on radar (most of which probably not reaching the ground given the dry low- levels).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm a highly amplified pattern over the U.S., with our Central Plains region residing under north-northwesterly flow...directed between a pronounced high pressure ridge extending over several northwestern states, and an expansive trough dominated much of the Midwest/northeast states and anchored by a closed low over southeast Canada. On the smaller scale, a compact shortwave trough is currently diving due southward out of SD into NE, and is helping provide lift to get our spotty showers/sprinkles going.

At the surface, a modest pressure gradient emanating southward from a roughly 1020 millibar high centered over eastern SD, along with diurnal/daytime mixing, is promoting somewhat-breezy north winds across our area...commonly sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts 20+ MPH. High temperatures are on track to top out between 60-66 degrees across the vast majority of our CWA.

- THIS EVENING (pre-midnight): Through at least nightfall (9-10 PM), isolated-to-scattered rain showers (and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms) will continue in our south (especially KS), while mainly spotty sprinkles will continue northward into our Nebraska counties...driven by a combination of weak instability (CAPE up to a few hundred J/kg) and upper forcing/lift from the aforementioned wave diving directly southward through our area. Have extended these fairly minor precip chances through at least 10 PM especially near/south of the KS border, with some models suggesting they may need extended a touch longer and also expanded a bit farther north. However, no matter what, confidence is fairly high that even our extreme southern zones should be rain-free no later than 11pm-Midnight, with skies then clearing efficiently from north-to-south.

- LATE TONIGHT (post-midnight): As surface high pressure settles directly over the heart of our CWA in the presence of clear skies and light/variable direction breezes (mainly under 5 MPH), the stage will be set for a fairly ideal radiational cooling situation. As a result, slightly "undercut" most available/guidance for overnight lows, with most places forecast to bottom out between 30-34 degrees, and some upper 20s most favored mainly in our far north-northwest (mainly north of a Lexington-Greeley line). There is high confidence that the vast majority of our CWA will see fairly widespread frost development. As for frost/freeze "headlines", due in part to neighboring WFO's North Platte/Goodland opting to "join the headline game" now that it's May, decided to do BOTH a Freeze Warning for roughly the northwest 1/3 of our CWA (counties most favored to see low temps ~ 30 degrees or slightly colder), while issuing another Frost Advisory for the remainder of our CWA (very-slightly-freezing low temps as cold as 30-32 possible in a few spots, but with most places likely dropping no colder than 32-36 and making frost the MAIN concern instead of a "true" freeze".

- SATURDAY DAYTIME: Following the seasonably-chilly/frosty start, a fairly pleasant and all-but-guaranteed dry day is on tap, with temperatures warming rather steadily in response to the onset of steady (but not very strong) west-southwesterly breezes (generally sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 MPH during the afternoon). High temps were changed very little and are aimed roughly 10 degrees warmer than today (most places topping out 70-74 degrees).

- SATURDAY NIGHT: Continued dry weather and clear/mostly clear skies, with by far the main difference versus tonight being milder low temperatures. For much of the night, southerly to westerly breezes will average 5-15 MPH, which along with the warmer low- level airmass will keep lows 10+ degrees warmer than tonight...with most places aimed 40-46 degrees.

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: The vast majority of our CWA likely stays dry through these 24 hours, but especially our extreme northern CWA could be brushed by a few sprinkles/light showers as a weak disturbance passes by in northwesterly flow aloft (right now we have some 20% chances in our far north during the evening-overnight). During the daytime, a weak cold front will pass southward through our CWA, turning winds northerly-to-easterly at around 10 MPH with slightly higher gusts. Temperature-wise, highs did come down very slightly from previous forecast (1-2 degrees) due in part to these weak front, but we're still calling for a range from low-mid 70s north...to upper 70s-low 80s south (most 80+ readings in our KS zones).

- MONDAY-TUESDAY: Our weather looks to turn a bit more active again, as increased forcing/upper lift from disturbances dropping down from the north and also riding in from the west (primary upper lows centered over the Great Lakes region and also southern CA/AZ region) will team up to drive a somewhat stronger surface cold front southward through our region...sparking increased chances for at least isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. There is still some model discrepancy on exactly WHEN this front passes through (will it be afternoon or evening?), but there are hints that at least modest instability will build ahead of it, with early projections from NAM/GFS suggesting anywhere from 500-1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE getting into especially the southern 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA. This could bring a threat for at least a few strong (MAYBE marginally severe?) storms to mainly our southern-southeast CWA Monday afternoon and/or evening, so this will bear watching and it will be interesting to see if SPC opts to assign a formal Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) on tonight's upcoming Day 3 outlook. At any rate, once we get past Monday evening, cooler/more stable air enters our area, keeping any precip into Tuesday as more benign rain/rain showers. Temperature-wise, we're currently calling for a 15-20 degree drop in high temps between Monday (most areas mid 70s-low 80s) and Tuesday (near-60). IF skies happen to clear enough (still very much a question mark), perhaps we have some frost concerns for Tuesday night especially in our far western/northern counties.

- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: In the big picture aloft, we look to reside under mainly northwesterly flow aloft, and thus subject to occasional weak waves and at least spotty rain shower/weak thunderstorm potential. Officially, our only mentionable (20+%) rain chances are right away Wednesday as the main larger scale trough axis swings through. However, despite our going dry forecast for Thurs-Fri, the latest ECMWF/GFS suggests it's no guarantee to stay this way. Temperature-wise, a steady warm-up is currently projected over the course of these 3 days...with highs rising from upper 50s/near-60 on Wednesday...to mid 60s-low 70s Thursday...to mid-upper 70s Friday. Like Tues night-Wed AM, Wed night-Thurs AM currently bear watching for possible frost or marginal freeze possibilities.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (near 100%) in VFR conditions through the period. Mostly clear skies will prevail, with only a few high clouds returning Saturday evening.

Light and variable winds turn to the west for Saturday, and then to the SSW for Saturday evening. A period of LLWS is possible Saturday night, but this is expected to begin after 06Z Sunday.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ062>064-073>077- 082>087. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ039>041-046>049- 060-061-072. KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ005>007-017>019.