textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread hot and humid conditions continue for at least one more day with afternoon heat index values around 100 degrees as far north as Interstate 80 to near 110 degrees across our north central Kansas counties. A heat advisory is in effect for north central Kansas from noon until 9 PM this evening.

- Increasing chances for thunderstorms arrive tonight, especially for portions of south central Nebraska. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for most of our Nebraska forecast area, and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk elsewhere.

- A fairly active, and overall considerably cooler, pattern settles in for the end of the week and into the weekend. Best rain chances will tend to favor areas from the Tri-Cities, north and west, and mainly during the evening/night hours.

UPDATE

Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A busy night across the local area as a cluster of thunderstorms impacted the northern most portions of the local forecast area early this morning. While some additional strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out through 6 AM CDT, the storms on the southern fringe of this cluster appear to be weakening and the threat for additional severe thunderstorms across the local area appears to be decreasing.

For today, expect outflow from this mornings thunderstorm activity to push south towards the NE/KS state line during the morning hours, helping to trap the most oppressive heat for this afternoon across north central Kansas. That said, this boundary is expected to lift north during the mid-afternoon hours, helping to expand hot and humid conditions northward, with heat index values likely approaching 100 degrees as far north as Interstate 80 this afternoon. As we then transition towards evening, another cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to rotate across the local area from the high plains, with strong thunderstorm wind gusts and marginally severe hail both possible across much of the local area this evening into the late night hours. At the present time, much of the Nebraska portion of the local area is in a slight risk for severe weather tonight.

For the remainder of the period, gradually cooler temperatures along with occasionally unsettled weather is anticipated through Saturday, with widespread below normal temperatures and continued unsettled conditions expected Sunday into at least the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 445 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Heat impacts: Another warm/hot afternoon across the area...and also quite steamy for most of south central Nebraska, where dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s are common. Air temperatures have surpassed the century mark for many areas along and S of the state line, but this is also where drier air resides. Thus, heat indices here are not all that different than the thermometer readings. Expanded the Heat Advisory earlier today to include the rest of northern KS and sure enough, both Phillipsburg and Smith Center are hovering near 105F heat index. Will be interesting to see how the heat unfolds next couple of days as there will be several competing factors. A cold front (currently along the Hwy 20 corridor) will gradually sink southward and usher in at least modestly cooler air for most of our Neb zones...and there could also be several bouts of mid to high clouds and perhaps even a few elevated showers. However, areas S of the boundary will remain very warm, and likely as humid or even more humid than today given propensity for moisture to pool along/just ahead of such boundaries. Also, these areas will remain quite warm tonight - only briefly dipping into the upper 70s - and have an already elevated launching pad for temperatures on Wednesday. Therefore, opted to issued another Heat Advisory for Osborne, Mitchell, and Jewell Counties where heat indices around 105F are again most likely. It's possible the front may not move quite as far S as currently expected, in which case the advisory may very well need to be expanded northward. We'll see how the front trends overnight.

Temperature uncertainties only increase for Thursday, with latest NBM guidance indicating the potential for a 25+ degree spread in highs from N to S. In fact, the current forecast for Thursday would place our far S tier of KS counties once again around the 105F heat index criteria for another Heat Advisory. Considerably higher chances for showers and thunderstorms Wed night (discussed further below) cast even more uncertainty on where the effective front/composite outflow resides by peak heating Thursday. Just know the far S may need to wait one more day (maybe even two??) to get in on some relief from the heat. The latest forecast is void of any 90s by Sunday-Monday, and areas along/N of I-80 may not get out of the 70s. Pattern may turn warmer again towards the middle of next week.

Rain/Storm Chances: Scattered showers and storms are developing over W Neb. late this afternoon, and this activity will attempt to move into at least far W zones this evening. However, similar to past few nights, the expectation is that steady weakening will occur after sunset. Thus, may not see much more than sprinkles E of Hwy 183. Another area of storms for us to watch will be what's currently developing over the Black Hills. Most CAM guidance suggests the brunt of this will remain to our N (thus only being grazed by the Day 1 Marginal Risk)...but this batch is expected to be more organized...and sometimes these complexes can turn a little more southerly than models indicate.

Can't rule out some elevated showers/weak storms over portions of south central Nebraska during the day Wednesday, but significantly higher chances for rain arrive on Wednesday night. Appears this activity will focus the most over areas mainly W/NW/N of the Tri-Cities, but the entire forecast area will at least stand a chance of seeing something. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather for the aforementioned most- favorable corridor, with the main risk being damaging winds and large hail. The combination of strong instability and seasonably strong deep layer shear argues for at least SOME risk for a more organized upscale growth/MCS and damaging wind threat to evolve out of the initial development over W NE/SD Wed eve- night. However, there remains some uncertainty on the overall strength and placement of the low level jet, which may be displaced further E. The general pattern, conceptually, is one that favors MCSs rolling off the High Plains, so this is a trend we'll need to monitor closely, esp. for areas N of I-80.

Frequent, essentially daily, rain/storm chances continue Thursday eve/night and into the weekend. Finer details are murky, at best...but would expect efficient rain makers given coherent connection to monsoonal moisture that's pulled northward on the backside of the high pressure over the Deep South. Also, proximity to seasonably strong mid/upper flow argues for non-zero severe risk, as well...esp. as it pertains to possibly one or two more organized MCSs in the evening and overnight hours. Upper ridging may begin to reassert itself and lead to lower rain chances next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the first half of the period with a PROB30 group to cover thunderstorm potential aft 13/03-13/04Z at both terminals. Winds today will generally be light...at less than 12 KTS...out of the east, with stronger northeasterly winds associated with the developing convection late this evening and into the overnight hours. MVFR CIGS/VSBYs along with some gusty thunderstorm winds to 30 KTS will be possible with the evening convection, primarily between 13/03-13/10Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.