textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Despite a gradual early-spring "green up", continued/long- lasting very dry conditions (especially in the northwest half of our forecast area/CWA) continue to drive heightened fire weather concerns. Fire weather is clearly our main issue over these next 36 hours, and our entire CWA is under a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon, and our KS counties are under a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon.

- Additional, almost daily fire weather concerns (to at least near-critical levels) will likely continue beyond Tuesday, with Thursday looking like our next possible critical day that might require Warning issuance if trends hold.

- Our next thunderstorm chances arrive mainly Tuesday evening into Wed AM (likely isolated/scattered coverage). Although we are not currently "outlooked" by SPC for a formal severe threat (primary threat zone should remain at least slightly to our east), would not be surprised if we end up with a few stronger storms (at least spotty small hail/gusty winds).

- After a dry stretch centered on Wed night-Fri AM, our next large-scale system/cold front swing through Fri afternoon- Saturday. We'll have to maybe watch our extreme southeastern zones for a severe storm threat Friday afternoon (main threat zone currently projected barely to our south/east), and we MIGHT even catch a touch of late-season snow late Fri night- Sat AM as temps fall (not a "sure thing" in all model data).

- Still several nights away, but with the growing season "ahead of schedule" due to considerable warmth this spring, Sat night-Sun AM might be a possible candidate for our first Frost Advisory and/or Freeze Warning of the season.

- Temperatures broad overview: These next 7 days will surely average out warmer-than-normal, with highs most days 60s-80s, and lows mainly 40s/50s until late in the week. The overall- chilliest day looks to be Saturday, but not overly-cold with highs mainly 50s.

UPDATE

Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Tuesday):

- Honestly, no truly "major" changes with the overall-theme of the next 7 days versus previous forecast. For all "big picture" highlights/concerns please refer to Key Messages already outlined above.

- As expected, the majority of "forecast focus" this shift was on shorter-term fire weather concerns, with our entire CWA now under a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon (despite somewhat marginal wind speeds for some), and our KS zones now under a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon (see separate Fire Weather section below for any further discussion on this topic).

-- DETAILED FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS (through Tues night): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: Although a rogue sprinkle might have barely brushed our extreme northern CWA earlier int he night, as expected it's been a dry night under a mix of clear skies and mainly thin high cirrus arriving from the southwest. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery/short term model data depict continued/persistent broad southwesterly flow over the Central Plains...downstream from a larger-scale trough over the western U.S. A very subtle ripple working thorugh our region overnight sparked a smattering of light showers/a few weak storms that passed almost entirely to our north overnight (over northern NE).

At the surface, although not as windy as Sat night-Sun AM, it's been another night of steady southerly/southeasterly breezes in most places for most of the night (sustained speeds commonly 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20+ MPH. That being said, winds especially over our far north/west-central counties have turned quite a bit lighter in recent hours, as the reside along a trough axis extended east-northeast from a roughly 1002 millibar low pressure center currently centered over southwestern NE (24 hours ago it appeared this surface low would track a bit farther north, closer to the SD border). Overnight low temps are eventually expected to bottom out ROUGHLY 5 degrees cooler than yesterday's readings...ranging from near-50 west, to upper 50s-low 60s east where breezes are little stronger/dewpoints a little higher.

- TODAY: High confidence in a dry and seasonably-warm day, with any threat for thunderstorms (including severe) focusing well to our north-northeast (especially within the IA/MN/WI border area). Over the course of the day, the aforementioned surface low currently just on the western fringes of our CWA will gradually northeastward...reaching the NE/IA/SD border area by around sunset. As a result of this feature passing by to our north- then-northeast, breezes today will gradually transition from southerly, to southwesterly to more "true" westerly (and maybe even a touch northwesterly especially in western counties this afternoon). Effectively, this is a dryline pushing through, with dewpoints/relative humidity (RH) expected to really drop in its wake, and for temperatures to really jump. Despite a fair amount of high level clouds passing overhead mainly this morning, increasing sun this afternoon will help boost temps well into the mid-upper 80s (most of our CWA aimed 84-89...but short of April the records in the low 90s at Hastings/Grand Island). For most of our CWA, sustained winds this afternoon will average 10-20 MPH/gusts 15-25 MPH, although at least sporadic gusts to 30 MPH are a decent bet given deep mixing in the westerly low- level flow. This all ads up to a decent fire weather threat...with somewhat modest wind speeds being the main mitigating factor from even greater concerns.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: While a rogue sprinkle cannot be totally ruled out, a dry forecast officially continues. At the surface, a shortwave trough passing by to our north will send a weak cold front southward through most of our CWA as the night wears on, its passage marked by a turn to light-but-steady north-northeasterly breezes. By sunrise Tuesday, this boundary is currently expected to very near the NE/KS border. Under mostly clear skies, low temps are expected to drop generally 5-10 degrees cooler than this morning's lows, with most places bottoming out mid 40s to low 50s.

- TUESDAY DAYTIME: As our first larger-scale upper trough of the week (the first of two) approaches from the Rockies, the main feature at the surface will be a gradually-strenghening low pressure system developing into the NE/KS/CO border area to our west by late in the day. As this low strengthens, it will likely "tighten up" the aforementioned, generally west-east oriented frontal zone near the NE/KS border to start the day, but if anything perhaps cause it to lift back north a bit. With the exact position of this front a bit uncertain for the afternoon hours, there is some modest uncertainty in various elements, including temperatures, wind direction/speeds and how far north a critical fire weather threat might exist. North of the boundary, winds will surely be more easterly, while south of the front (especially in our KS zones), a breezy southwesterly wind will prevail (gusts at least 25-35 MPH). We may be aiming too warm north of I-80 and perhaps not warm enough into KS, but for now high temps are aimed from mid-upper 70s north, to mid-upper 80s in KS. Precip-wise, while most of the day will surely be dry, we bring some small rain/thunderstorm chances into mainly our northern/western counties during the afternoon.

- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: This forecaster's main concern is that we might have a "sneaky" threat for a few strong to perhaps even marginally-severe thunderstorms (despite not being "outlooked" by SPC on the initial Day 2 outlook). While the MAIN severe threat will surely focus to our east (eastern KS up into IA), especially the latest NAM suggests that at least 500-1000 J/kg of mainly elevated instability (CAPE) could materialize, with lift/forcing increasing through the night as the main upper trough arrives from the west...reaching our western CWA by sunrise Wednesday. To be fair, other models (including RAP/HRRR) are less generous with elevated CAPE (except maybe in our southeastern CWA), but simulated reflectivity from higher-res models certainly point to a decent chance for isolated/scattered convection (NOT a widespread soaker, unfortunately), with at least SOME strong to possibly marginally-severe storm threat. In other departments, at the surface the main low pressure system will pass through from west to east, swinging breezes around to more northerly- to-westerly especially by near/after sunrise Wednesday (our forecast speeds may not yet be high enough). Low temps are aimed similar to Monday night (mainly mid-upper 40s with low-mid 50s far east).

-- NOTE: - NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

TAFs are primarily focused on timing of wind shifts and gusts this afternoon and also early Tuesday. There is some indication that low ceilings or even fog could develop into GRI or perhaps even EAR between 10Z-13Z, but at this time it appears more likely to remain VFR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 503 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: A Red Flag Warning has been expanded to now include our entire forecast area (CWA), valid from 12-9 PM. Admittedly, at least parts of this Warning are a little marginal regarding wind speeds (versus criteria), as some areas will probably struggle to realize a 3+ hour period of gusts consistently 25+ MPH out of the west to west-southwest. That being said, at the very least, all areas should see near-critical gusts reach at least 20+ MPH for much of the afternoon-early evening, and especially far southeast counties could see gusts to 30 MPH for at least a few hours. Turning to relative humidity (RH), confidence is very high that all but perhaps the extreme northeast fringes of our CWA will see values bottom out as low as 10-20 percent (solidly meeting critical criteria), as afternoon high temperatures soar into the mid- upper 80s. As a result, and despite the marginal wind gusts expected in some places, it was decided to "err on the side of caution" and expand this Warning to include our entire forecast area...instead of "splitting hairs" and leaving out a handful of counties that might fall slightly short of consistent 25+ MPH gusts. No matter how strong afternoon winds end up being, they should drop off pretty quickly toward sunset, and admittedly the 9 PM "end time" to this Warning is probably a bit generous.

- TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: A Fire Weather Watch has been issued (also valid 12-9 PM), but at least for now, only for our 6 KS counties, as that is where confidence is highest in potentially meeting critical criteria for 3+ hours. The main reason that this Watch does not currently extend north of the NE/KS border is because a fairly sharp, generally west-east oriented surface front is expected to set up somewhere over far southern Nebraska during the afternoon, with higher RH and lighter (generally easterly) winds present north of this boundary. However, south of this boundary (including mainly our KS counties), stronger southwest winds will likely be sustained at least 15-25 MPH/gust at least 25-35 MPH. Due to another round of seasonably-warm afternoon temperatures reaching the mid-upper 80s, RH should easily fall to at least 15-20% near/especially south of the state line. Should later forecasts depict this front lifting farther north into southern Nebraska, a northward expansion of later Watches/possible Warnings may be necessary over the next 12-24 hours. However, for now felt comfortable confining the Watch to only our northern KS zones.

- WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: Will forego any detailed breakdown at this time range for now, but the bottom line is that each afternoon is currently forecast to feature at least near-critical conditions for at least small portions of our area, with a few afternoons forecast to breach outright-critical thresholds in at least limited areas. At least for now, the next day of GREATEST concern for potentially the most widespread critical fire weather potential is Thursday, as breezy south winds develop (gusts at least 25 MPH likely) in the presence of more seasonably-warm temperatures reaching the low- mid 80s...driving RH down into the 10-20% range across most of our CWA.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.