textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Wide range in temperatures today from warm SW to cool NE. Can't guarantee today stays completely dry, but not expecting much more than sprinkles.

- Cold front moves through the area during the day Wednesday. S/SE areas warm nicely into the 70s, whereas a N/NW areas behind the front are held in the 60s.

- There is a marginal threat for a few severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening along the frontal zone, and again on Thursday, affecting areas mainly along and S of the KS/SE state line.

- Rain and storm chances increase Thursday through Sunday with chances up to 80% across portions of the area, at times. With that said, there will be some "winners & losers" when it comes to rain amounts, with overall highest amounts favoring locations S and E of the Tri-Cities.

UPDATE

Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

As discussed yesterday, the primary band of rain and wet snow today was looking to set up mainly NE/E of the area, and that has panned out as expected. We still have some very low end PoPs smattereed across the area today, mainly to account for some weak waves interacting with some moisture in the 10-15K ft layer, as well as near the surface. In between these two moisture layers, some drier air should limit overall organization of any rain today to mainly sprinkles/trace amnts. Clouds will be thickest and more prevalent from around the Tri- Cities and esp. to the N and E...and this is where highs will be coolest in the 50s to lower 60s. KS zones are expected to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. So perhaps a solid ~25 degree gradient between Columbus area and Plainville.

Yesterday's cold front returns northward tonight thanks to incr low level jet/warm air advection, ahead of yet another cold front. This next cold front is forecast to move through NW to SE during the daytime hours on Wed. Tri-Cities N and W probably stay in the 60s given latest timing of frontal passage in the AM to early aftn. Areas S of a line from PHG to JYR will likely warm well into the 70s - perhaps even flirting with 80F in north central KS. Isolated t-storms remain a possibility along the front late aftn into the evening, mainly for areas from around Plainville to Hebron. With that said, some of the latest model trends are a bit faster with the front, and thus, further S/SE with the iso t-storm threat. Should something develop, there remains a Marginal Risk for a few strong-severe storms with gusty winds and quarter to half dollar size hail the main threats. An increasing low level jet and at least weak ascent back up and over the elevated frontal zone could support at least a few elevated supercells overnight - though the presence of such activity and overall coverage remains uncertain.

Looks like the highest rain chances for the work week will be on Thursday, but esp. Thursday night. Still think just about anywhere in the CWA can get at least SOME moisture out of this system, but models are really honing in on S/SE/E portions of the forecast area as having the greatest potential for scattered to widespread appreciable (0.50"+) rainfall. Areas N and NW of the Tri-Cities could be rather disappointed come Fri AM.

Rain chances continue Friday and into the weekend, though (frankly) have my suspicions that the latest NBM is overdone on these chances, at least for the daytime hours Friday. Pattern will indeed remain active (esp. when compared to fast few months), but this is to be expected for April...and similar to Thursday, believe actual rain amounts could be quite variable over the weekend. Bottom line - still expect a couple (few?) rounds of much needed moisture next several days, but probably not as widespread as many would hope...with SE areas having better chances than NW areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A broad upper trough extends over the Northeast and Midwest with Nebraska and Kansas along the backside of the trough. A surface high out of Canada extends southward to Nebraska. Enhanced atmospheric lift is over the area which has resulted in some rain showers moving across northeast Nebraska. The surface high and cloud cover has kept temperatures cooler across most of the area today, but a warm front across Kansas is expected to move a little further northward this afternoon. This front may reach into north central Kansas and may result in temperatures across portions of Rooks, Osborne, and Mitchell Counties warming up into the 70s. If the warm front makes it that far north, humidity values may drop to around 20% to 25% across portions of the above mentioned counties. Wind gusts across north central Kansas may get up to around 20 MPH which may create near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. High temperatures today are expected to range from the 40s across far northern portions of the forecast area with temperatures across far southern areas possibly reaching into the 70s. Upper level lift will increase across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas tonight as temperatures drop to around or below freezing. This will likely result in a mix of rain and snow across most of the forecast area. Any snow accumulations are expected to be a half inch or less.

The cooler air is expected to linger across most of the area on Tuesday with rain and snow showers lingering into the morning hours. There is some uncertainty in regards to high temperatures on Tuesday due to uncertainties with how long the cooler air will linger before a warm front lifts northward across the area. Low temperatures Tuesday night in the wake of the warm front will be mostly in the 40s. An upper trough will be over the northern Rocky Mountains and will extend to the Upper Midwest on Wednesday with it extending southward over Nebraska into Kansas. A cold front associated with this trough will push into the area on Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 60s and 70s on Wednesday with a surface trough present ahead of the front. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along this front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Increased CAPE, wind shear, lapse rates, and atmospheric lift will result in a marginal threat for severe storms. This threat will mainly be for north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

Cooler air will continue pushing into the area on Thursday but there are some uncertainties with how far south the cold front will get. Rain, with possibly some thunderstorms, is expected along and behind the front. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to range from the upper 50s to 70s. The cooler air will remain in place on Friday with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Shortwave troughs are expected to move over the area on Saturday allowing for more chances (65% to 80%) of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures are generally expected to warm up on Saturday although there is some uncertainty to the degree of warm up due to moisture and cloud cover. More chances (35% to 65%) of showers and thunderstorms are present on Sunday as more shortwaves move over the area. Sunday may end up being the warmest day of the forecast with highs in the 70s and 80s with winds increasing out of the south to southwest.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Sharp changes from the previous aviation forecast, especially as it pertains to overnight/early day precipitation chances, which are now much lower and have been removed from the current forecast and upcoming 06Z issuance. While a sprinkle may occur the best chance for any precipitation of consequence is east of KGRI and KEAR this period. However, some lower clouds will work into both airports overnight bringing IFR/MVFR ceilings through midday Tuesday, after which clouds will start to break up and clear. Winds will remain up throughout the forecast with gusts up to 25kts with a gradual to the southeast through the day Tuesday. A strong low level jet will kick in after dark Tuesday resulting in non-convective low level wind shear late at the end of the forecast cycle. With not precipitation expected, no visibility restrictions are anticipated.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.