textproduct: Hastings

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is over most of the western part of the country and extends over the northern Plains and much of the Upper Midwest. An upper ridge extends from the Gulf Coast towards the Northeast. Temperatures this afternoon will heat up into the upper 80s to mid/upper 90s. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms this evening into tonight with another shortwave expected to move over the area. The latest HRRR shows some storms developing across south central Nebraska between 9 PM and around 1 AM. Portions of north central Kansas may also get storms. The main threats will be hail up to around the size of half dollars and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

Thursday into Thursday night...

The HRRR and NAM12 are both showing showers and storms developing across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas Thursday morning. These storms may get strong to possibly marginally severe with fairly high CAPE, instability, and upper level lift present. Some isolated, weaker showers and storms may linger into the afternoon hours. There is some uncertainty about storm development across the area late in the afternoon into the evening hours. The HRRR brings in some showers and storms around 8 or 9 PM with everything pretty much gone by 2 AM. However, the NAM12 develops a storm around the Grand Island area by early evening and continues storm development through most of the night generally along and north of I-80. If these storms do develop, they have a fairly high potential (around 70%) of becoming severe given very high CAPE (3,000 to 5,000+ J/kg), decent wind shear (30 to 40 knots across most of the area), and mid-level lapse rates around 7 to 8 degrees C/km. The deciding factor may be if a shortwave trough moves over/near the area. Most of the area is in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather. High temperatures on Thursday will be similar to those from today. Low temperatures Thursday night may be a couple of degrees warmer than the previous night.

Friday and Friday night...

Temperatures are expected to warm up on Friday with highs in the lower to upper 90s. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms across most of south central and central Nebraska Friday evening into Friday night. Details about these storms remain uncertain at this time.

Saturday and Saturday night...

There remains uncertainty with regards to temperatures and precipitation on Saturday. There is supposed to be a cold front moving into the area but the timing is uncertain. At this time, high temperatures on Saturday are expected to range from the mid 80s to mid/upper 90s. High temperatures will be cooler (especially along and north of I-80) if the NAM12 is right since it brings in the cold front sooner and develops precipitation earlier in the day. Both the GFS and ECMWF bring in the front and precipitation later in the day (late afternoon/early evening). The GFS and ECMWF are not in agreement with regards to placement of the showers and storms. There is potential for some of these storms to become strong to severe late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening given fairly high instability and wind shear. At this time, there is not high confidence in the placement of showers and storms Saturday evening, but there is fairly high confidence (around 60%) that there will be convection.

Sunday through Tuesday...

High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will generally be in the mid 80s to low 90s. Various chances (around 15% to 25%) of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for various parts of the area Sunday through Tuesday. Morning low temperatures will generally be in the low 20s to low 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Though the thunderstorms did not pan out tonight, a few decaying showers will possible to be in the KEAR vicinity around 7-9z. No impacts to aviation is expected (VFR conditions maintaining). The big uncertainty in the later end of the 6z TAF period (0-6z) will be the potential again for evening to nighttime thunderstorms again Thursday evening. Confidence, though slightly increased since earlier, is still not high enough to mention in a prevailing group for now.

Winds tonight out of the south to southeast will not be expected to gust higher than 20kts with winds mainly sustaining near 10kts. Winds between 16-18z will be expected to pick up with peak afternoon gusts likely to range as high as 25-30kts across much of the afternoon hours. Directions are not expected to adjust much (180-140 degrees) with similar conditions likely retuning in the evening.

LLWS, though possibly marginal at times, will generally not be expected to stay in place long overnight. Another weak LLWS signal looks to come back Thursday night as well.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.