textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions this afternoon continue on into this evening, before chances for showers and storms ramp back up from west- to-east...mainly after midnight into Sunday morning. Severe weather is not anticipated.

- Precipitation and cloud cover look to linger longer into the day on Sunday, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. This impacts forecast highs, which range from the mid 70s east to mid 80s west. Another disturbance brings additional storm chances Sunday night, mainly focused across NNE portions of the area. Again severe weather is not anticipated.

- The new work week sounds a lot like the previous one...with periodic upper level shortwave disturbances working through the continued northwesterly flow across the region. This will keep precipitation chances in the forecast each day...remaining mainly focused in the evening/overnight hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Currently...

The day started out on the wet side for a good chunk of the forecast area...as yet another upper level shortwave disturbance (aided by increased lower-level convergence) made its way across the region...with a couple spots producing wind gusts around 60 MPH. That activity exited the area around mid- morning...leaving behind a pretty nice day with plenty of sun. Upper air and satellite data showing continued northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains this afternoon as the pattern remains well amplified across the CONUS. The main ridge axis extends north through the Rockies from high pressure centered mainly over CO/NM...sandwiched between areas of low pressure/southward extending troughing over northern Ontario and just off the Pac NW coast. At the surface...a large area of high pressure is centered over near the ND/Canada border, with its axis extending south roughly along the MO River. This is keeping winds across the forecast area easterly, with speeds on the lighter side, around 10-15 MPH. No big surprises as far as temperatures go...with mid afternoon readings in the low-mid 80s.

This evening on into Sunday...

Quiet conditions this afternoon will continue on into the evening hours, before precipitation chances ramp back up later tonight. Off to our west...radar and satellite imagery showing scattered storms developing over the Rockies, as another shortwave disturbance rides around the edge of the ridge, and aided by east-southeasterly lower-level upslope flow. The main question as the late evening-overnight hours pass is how much of this activity is sustained long enough to move into our forecast area. Kept the forecast dry through 06Z...and some of the hi-res models suggest it'd be even later than that by a few hours before activity creeps into our western edge. Aided by lift along an increased, but not overly strong, SSErly low level jet...models are in pretty good agreement showing at least scattered activity making it into the forecast area. The timing may end up not too different than last night with the onset being around 09Z...but models suggest that activity lingers around the area longer, potentially not until early-mid afternoon before sliding off to our east. This activity is not expected to be severe...models still showing that while deeper layer shear isn't bad (30-35ish kts), the main axis of better instability focused just off to our west...so the SPC Day 1 outlook areas remain both west and south of the area.

Once the activity pushes east, the rest of the day Sunday is dry, but will likely see more cloud cover linger longer into the day...especially across the eastern half of the area. This would impact high potential for the day...forecast currently has mid 70s in the east to mid 80s in the west (where more sun is possible). Between the sfc high shifting more to our east and low pressure deepening over the High Plains...winds are expected to turn more southerly for Sunday...with the potential for gusts near 20 MPH across areas mainly west of HWY 281.

Later Sunday night into the overnight hours...little overall change in the upper level pattern means there will the potential for yet another shortwave disturbance to bring additional storm chances to the area. Main difference during this period is that models still suggesting this disturbance tracks a bit further north (as does better convergence along the LLJ)...and along with warmer mid-level temps the further SW you go, result in these chances more of a glancing shot, focused across the NNErn third or so of the forecast area. Severe weather chances remain low through Sunday night- early Mon AM.

Monday and on...

Outside of any lingering activity early in the morning, the daytime and at least early evening hours on Monday remain dry. Models showing little movement in the location of the main upper level area high of high pressure and northward extending ridging into the Rockies...but do show that area of low pressure currently off the Pac NW pushing further inland...sliding through the southern half of Saskatchewan during the daytime hours. Precipitation chances do return to the forecast late Monday night-Tuesday AM...but remain low (20-30 percent) as models vary with how much (if any?) activity impacts the forecast area, with the better upper level forcing well to our NW.

Later Tuesday (more the evening/overnight hours) may bring better thunderstorm chances to the area...as that main upper low is working its way more into MN, with the trough axis draped further SW into the region. Storms may initially focus along an accompanying sfc frontal boundary (though it's not a strong one)...later aided by an increasing LLJ. Still plenty of uncertainty and details to iron out...as being this far south of the main upper low doesn't do the precip coverage any favors, and with the sfc front and LLJ potentially not overly strong, there are difference with just much activity there ends up being.

The rest of the week continues to sound like a broken record...upper level pattern remaining northwesterly (potentially more zonal next weekend), with periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional precipitation chances (mainly focused in the evening/overnight hours).

As far as temperatures go for the new work week...not any significant changes, and not expecting any notable swings. Forecast highs remain mainly in the 80s, with some 90s working into WSWrn areas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Mostly clear skies are expected through the evening, with light ESE winds around 7-10kt. The main impact of the TAF forecast is the chance of thunderstorms late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Most CAMs are suggesting thunderstorms to move in from the W/NW between roughly 10-15Z for KEAR and 11-16Z for KGRI, though exact timing and coverage is a little uncertain. Furthermore, recent HRRR runs have some lingering showers following this main line. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with how/if this pans out, hence the absence from the TAF.

After the morning precipitation, dry conditions are expected 18Z onward, with skies clearing into the afternoon hours. Afternoon winds will be SSE around 10-12kt, with gusts up to 20kt possible.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.