textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased rain and thunderstorm chances this weekend, especially Saturday night. Severe storms may develop.

- Warming temperatures through Wednesday then a cold front will bring cooler temperatures (70s and 80s) for Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently developing along a boundary in north central and central Kansas and moving southward. Most of this activity is to the south of the forecast area but some isolated showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) are developing across parts of north central Kansas. Any precipitation amounts are expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. No severe weather is expected. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday as winds become southerly this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to continue to warm up on Wednesday despite a cold front beginning to move into the area. High temperatures for Wednesday may need to be lowered a bit if the front arrives any earlier. The cooler temperatures will be felt on Thursday as a surface high moves over the area with highs in the 70s and 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend (up to 80%-85% chance Saturday night) with a passing shortwave. Severe storms may develop, although there is still some uncertainty.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Tonight as an upper level disturbance moves southeast into the great lakes region a weak front/wind shift will move across the area and could help to spark showers and thunderstorms during the late overnight/early morning hours. This primarily looks to impact locations south and east of the Tri-cities, but even moreso those along and southeast of a line from York, NE to Osborne, KS. Instability is limited and these storms are not expected to be strong or severe.

As the Central Plains sits under northwest upper level flow, the pattern remains a bit active, but dry through most of the week. The next front will move through the area Wednesday. Temperatures ahead of this front will be steamy with highs in the upper to mid-90s for portions of northern Kansas. Models currently show the front traversing the area during the day, which will help temperatures some, but even northwesterly downslope winds with drier air will help keep temperatures up where the front has passed. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest ahead of the front and turn to the northwest after the front passes. Gusts could reach 35-40 mph. RH values behind the front are already showing values in the teens and low 20s across the area by afternoon. Despite the greenup, some areas, especially along and west of Hwy 183 have drier fuels and near critical fire conditions are possible with the combo of the fuels and the weather conditions.

After the front moves through on Wednesday, temperatures are a bit more normal - in the mid 80s - for the end of the work week.

The pattern gets a bit more active towards the weekend as an upper wave moves in from the west. Beginning overnight Friday into Saturday, thunderstorm activity increases. 40-60% is currently forecast for the weekend. Some of this activity could be strong to severe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Very high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and rain-free conditions throughout the period, with only limited amounts of passing mid-high level cloud cover. That leaves winds as by far the main concern, including somewhat-strong surface winds (including a cold frontal passage with directional change) and also a fairly strong round of overnight-early morning low level wind shear (LLWS).

- Surface winds: By far the lightest winds of the period will be right away this afternoon (becoming southerly up to around 10KT). This evening- overnight, speeds will ramp up and turn more southwesterly with time (sustained commonly 15-20KT/gusts around 25KT). Then, right around 13Z a cold front arrives, turning winds northwesterly through the rest of the period with gusts increasing to around 30KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): Have maintained LLWS from previous TAFs, and even added a second group to provide more detail on direction/intensity. The initial LLWS group runs 03-09Z and highlights mainly southerly speeds accelerating to around 50KT within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL. The second LLWS group then runs 09-13Z as low level winds turn more southwesterly and increase a bit more to around 55KT. The net result is several hours of moderately-strong LLWS, with shear magnitude between the surface and the 1-2K ft. AGL layer reaching 30-40KT.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.