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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow winds down this afternoon and evening for areas along and south of the NE/KS state line.

- Very cold temperatures persist through Monday morning.

- Upcoming week looks mainly dry and somewhat warmer, though still on the chilly side, at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the second wave of this double-headed winter monster of a system ejecting NEward out of the Baja region. This wave will continue NE this evening and overnight and keep widespread wintry precipitation going across much of the central CONUS. However, for us, regional radar imagery indicates a gradual decline in reflectivity over the past 1-2 hours as drier air nudges in from the N. Expect this trend to continue as the main baroclinic zone sharpens up well S/SE of our area and focuses the main area of precipitation there. Earlier today, we cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for areas along the NE/KS state line and moved up the end time of the Winter Storm Warning to midnight. These actions were in- line with hi-res model trends at the time, and generally still appear to be on-track. Mitchell Co appears most at-risk for additional snowfall accumulation of consequence around 1", or so. Elsewhere, additional accumulations should be 1/2", or less.

The other story remains the very cold temperatures. No major changes to forecast wind chills with this package, or the ongoing Cold Weather Advisory. Continued light winds will keep values fairly close to air temperatures tonight into Sunday morning. However, models still indicate an increase in NWrly winds through the afternoon/evening Sunday, which will continue into Sunday night. Thus, expect another dip in wind chills to dangerous levels of -15F to -25F Sunday night into Monday morning. Worth noting that improvement will be somewhat slow Monday AM as, even though air temps will warm into the teens to around 20F by midday, wind speeds will also be increasing. Thus, wind chills probably don't rise above 0F until early afternoon.

The rest of the week doesn't look quite as cold. However, we're putting down a lot of coverage of snow and ice across a significant portion of the central CONUS this weekend, and that's going to take some work to overcome. Often times, models under-estimate this and warm temperatures too quickly. Expect we'll see highs climb back into the 30s for midweek, but widespread or persistent 40s are becoming increasingly hard to come by for Tue-Wed in recent models trends. Ensembles suggest another lobe of Arctic air for late week behind a clipper-like system, but so far, it doesn't appear to be as severe or long- lasting as this weekend's. This looks to be our next somewhat decent chance for moisture, albeit weak/light.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Currently have a dry TAF period, with VFR conditions...with some uncertainty in that for the afternoon hours on Sunday. Cloud cover this evening remains in the upper levels, diminishing with time as we get closer to/after midnight tonight...may even have a period with clear skies. Another round of lower level clouds will be inching their way south during the daytime hours on Sunday, accompanying a sfc cold front boundary swinging through the area. At this point, models/guidance keep the lower ceilings VFR, but not out of the question they'll be flirting with MVFR criteria...will see how upcoming model runs trend. Winds this evening remain light/variable...turning more SW then W through the overnight hours ahead of the approaching front. Winds during the day Sunday will switch to the NNW behind the front...with gusts during the afternoon hours around 30 MPH not out of the question.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ005>007- 017>019. Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for KSZ017>019.


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