textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry tonight with a warm start to the work week. Highs could reach 90 degrees in spots Monday afternoon.

- Thunderstorm chances return to the local area Monday evening/night. A few of these storms could be strong or severe.

- Off and on chances for thunderstorms will then continue through the end of the forecast period with highs generally bouncing around the 80s while remaining on the warm side of climatology (about 5 degrees or so above normal each day).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Partly cloudy skies returned to the area this afternoon after another round of storms impacted much of the area Saturday night. While there remains a very small chance for a thunderstorms mainly east of Highway 81 tonight, most of the models keep any convection well east of the local area and decided to remove pops for tonight earlier this afternoon.

Overnight, expect mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds to combine to form a fairly favorable set up for some light fog formation to start the day on Monday. That said, both the HRRR and the SREF probs indicate this potential should lie mostly to our southeast where richer moisture will linger, so opted against introducing light fog to start the day Monday, albeit would not be shocked if some fog did work its way towards Thayer, Jewell and Mitchell counties towards daybreak.

With mostly sunny skies and a brief amplification of the upper level ridge across the area ahead of the next disturbance Monday afternoon, expect a dry and very warm day across the area. Then, late in the day, expect and upper level disturbance to approach from the west/southwest spreading showers and thunderstorms across much of the local area during the late evening through overnight hours. Given the elevated instability and modest 0-6KM shear, could see some stronger to marginally severe storms early on in the event favoring our west and southwestern areas, likely favoring strong winds and hail up to the size of half dollars.

This aforementioned disturbance will also help break down the upper level ridge that briefly amplifies across the area Monday, with a "messy" west southwesterly flow then continuing through the end of the period with off and on chances for thunderstorms and slightly cooler (yet still seasonably warm) temperatures in the lower to mid 80s into next weekend. At this point the best chance for severe weather appears to be Monday night, but there will likely be additional days with the potential for at least some strong to severe storms across the local area given the favorable instability and moist airmass in place across the region. Those details will be addressed as we get closer to those additional chances for thunderstorms later this week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 532 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through the period. Can't completely rule out some patchy minor ground fog around dawn Mon AM, but chances appear far too low to include attm. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies tonight with light and variable winds. Will probably see some SCT high clouds on Monday, but appears this will remain above 10K ft. Winds will bec steady out of the N just after sunrise, then gradually turn to the NE then E throughout the day...remaining around 7-11kt for the daytime hours. Confidence: High.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.