textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for counties southeast of a line from Harlan to Polk counties until 8PM tonight. Temperatures as high as 101 degrees with heat index values as high as 107 degrees will be possible.

- A Marginal risk of severe weather is in place for areas northwest of a line from Polk to Webster to Rooks county. The strongest storms may be capable of producing hail up to the size of quarters, gusty winds up to near 60MPH and heavy rainfall.

- Though a few afternoon to evening storms can't be ruled out, the better storm chances tonight will come during the overnight hours. The best potential (30-50%) will be concentrated to mainly the northwest half of the area (locations near, north or west of the Tri-Cities).

- Highs through Tuesday will stay in the upper 80s to low 100s. Highs the remainder of the week look to span the 80s to low 90s.

- The next best thunderstorm chances return Sunday (20-40% chances), Monday night (20-60% chances) and Tuesday night (15-65% chances).

UPDATE

Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Brief Overview...

An expansive ridge is expected to retain across much of the Central U.S. over the next few days. This feature will continue to keep around anomalously high pressure aloft and seasonally warm temperatures through the weekend. Though ridging patterns are often associated with drier conditions from suppressing mid-level subsidence, a few scattered storms may still be possible to pop up across mainly west central portions of Nebraska.

Today...

A marginal risk of severe weather is in place across areas northwest of a line from Polk to Webster to Rooks county. Scattered thunderstorms are favored to initialize across western Nebraska during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the west to southwesterly steering flow aloft, several of these storms should have a chance to drift over into mainly western portions of central Nebraska later this evening and across the overnight hours tonight. Current high-resolution forecast guidance (HREF members) does not show much agreement in regards to timing. Though most models including the HRRR have a later arrival of storms (after midnight), a few models, including the NAMNEST resolve a few isolated afternoon to evening storms forming ahead of the main wave overnight.

Generally speaking, the best overall potential (30-50% chance) will be for locations closer to the northwest portions of the area (areas closer to where storms are expected to initiate). Though not every storm will become severe, a few of the stronger storms, especially earlier on in the evening/night, will be possible to become severe. Conditions may be supportive enough for large hail growth (mainly up to 1" or quarter sized) or damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60MPH. There is still some uncertainty with how conducive the severe storm environment may be at that time of day given decreasing MUCAPE values (1,000-2,000 J/kg) and a fairly marginal shear profile (20- 25kts). Given a healthy moisture flux from southerly low-level winds, PWAT values will be expected to inflate to as high as 1.5- 1.75in. This higher than normal water content may indicate the potential for locally heavy rainfall within the cluster of overnight storms.

Besides the thunderstorm chance this evening into tonight, temperatures will once again reach back up to the 90s across the area with highs possible to reach the low 100s in a few north central Kansas locations this afternoon. The return of the upper 60s to mid 70s dewpoints will push heat index values up into the upper 90s to as high as 107 degrees (warmest values towards the south and east). As result to the limited overnight recovery of temperatures (low to mid 70s lows) and the return of heat index values above 105 degrees in places, the heat advisory remain in effect until 8PM this evening for counties along and southeast of a line from Harlan to Polk county.

Sunday & Monday...

Very similar conditions will be possible to return both Sunday and Monday as the pattern aloft remains virtually unchanged. Highs through the weekend and into early next week will continue to maintain in the 90s to low 100s with overnight lows spreading across the upper 60s to mid 70s. Scattered storm chances additionally return Sunday (20-40% chances) and Monday night (20-60% chances). Given the continuation of weak synoptic forcing, the development of daily thunderstorms will become reliant on the day to day local conditions that are heavily influenced by how storms evolve from the night previous (lower forecast confidence from more points of uncertainty).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

An upper ridge extends from the southeast part of the country and the southern Plains to the central Plains and parts of the Midwest. An upper trough is centered over the Pacific Northwest. South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are under the northern edge of the upper ridge. A surface trough over western Nebraska and western Kansas extends eastward across the forecast area. Winds across the area are mostly out of the south to southeast. High temperatures today are expected to range from the low 90s to around 101 degrees. Heat index values are expected to range from the mid 90s to near 109 degrees. High temperatures Saturday will be similar or slightly cooler than today with heat index values in the mid 90s to around 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of north central Kansas and portions of south central and central Nebraska and continues into Saturday evening.

Some showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving across portions of south central and central Nebraska with an upper disturbance overhead/near the area. This convection and increased cloud cover may keep temperatures today across portions of the area from reaching expected highs. These showers and isolated storms may continue through most, if not all, of the afternoon. Showers and storms may redevelop across northwestern portions of the area tonight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Near record warm low temperatures are possible tonight for Grand Island and Hastings. The record warm lows are in the mid 70s while the expected low temperatures are in the low 70s. Similar low temperatures are expected for tomorrow night. Additional storms may move across northern and western portions of the area Saturday afternoon and evening with the arrival of another shortwave. Some of these storms have the potential to become strong to marginally severe given fairly high CAPE and lapse rates although wind shear will be the limiting factor.

The upper ridge will shift around a bit Sunday and Monday but will mostly be over the southern and central Plains. High temperatures both days may decrease slightly but are expected to mostly be in the 90s. Heat index values both days are expected, at this time, to be below 105 degrees but will likely range from around 100 to 103 degrees across (mainly southern) portions of the area. A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday. This front will bring increased (up to 55%) chances of showers and storms Monday night through Tuesday night. High temperatures on Tuesday may range from the upper 80s to the low triple digits. The cold front will have more impact on Wednesday with high temperatures mainly in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Similar temperatures are expected for Thursday. Low rain and storm chances (15% to 25%) continue for portions of the area Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours outside of any thunderstorms. There is a small chance (15% to 20%) of thunderstorms from around 09z to 15z. Winds are expected to become southeasterly this afternoon between 5 to 10 knots with gusts as high as around 15 knots. Winds will mostly remain out of the southeast and will weaken some this evening.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ049-063-064- 074>077-083>087. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019.