textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect late tonight and Monday morning for north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska

- The 2-3" type snow is on track in the advisory area. Winds will be light but the morning commute impacted

- Up and down type temperature week after midnight brief periods of melting possible but also sub-zero temperatures. Precipitations looks sparse after Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

High pressure has been ridging down across the area today giving a reprieve the strong winds of Saturday. Low clouds have edged west on the east side of the surface ridge and produced periods of flurries in the cold stratus. To the west, high clouds already thickening ahead of the next short wave seen on water vapor imagery churning its way through northern Utah. Temperatures climbed a bit from early morning lows in the single digits but it is still 25+ degrees colder than normal for the last day of November.

With the shortwave in Utah, we turn our attention the light snow event late tonight/Monday morning. Given the timing during the Monday morning commute, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory from Midnight to until Noon Monday for north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska. The expectation is for about 2" of snow, but 3" or even 4" is possible in any narrow band that sets up around sunrise Monday, mainly along Highway 24 in Kansas. As mentioned, the higher liquid-snow ration around 18/20-1 support a fluff snow that may add up a bit more in spots. The models seem to have trended a bit farther south so the "heavier" amounts would favor northern Kansas. This plays well with an initial band of light snow with warm advection well north into Nebraska, capable of producing an inch or so of snow. That light snow may start as early as 10 PM tonight. However, its later when a narrow frontogenetic band sets up from west to east as the upper trough approaches that the snow will increase along south of Highway 6. That band should develop in northwest Kansas and slide east, reaching peak intensity over north central Kansas in the 6 to 9 AM time frame Monday. Its a steady snow with lower visibility but winds are light (under 10 mph) so flakes will float and not break apart. The models are very consistent in timing with the snow clearing 90% of north central Kansas by Noon or no late than 1 pm. To the north of Highway 6, its not no snow, just a bit less fluff accumulation in general (inch-ish range). Its cold while it snows but some late day sun will help temperatures rebound into the 20s, but still may lower highs slightly with fresh snow and early sunset.

Looking at the rest of the week, its a little up and down temperature-wise and "mostly dry". Prior to a stronger cold front moving through early Wednesday morning, temperatures will moderate Tuesday with some limited melting possible despite the fresh snow thanks to more sunshine, at least for a while.

As mentioned, Wednesday will turn colder again with a cold front passing early in the day. North winds will increase and wind chills drop...standard stuff for winter. The latest Hi-Res RRFS model is more aggressive with a light precipitation event Wednesday morning, suggesting even a mixture of precipitation. Its view would be less than tomorrow's snow, but more than a trace across parts of mainly south central Nebraska Wednesday. Right now, not enough consensus to include any precipitation chances. Temperatures drop further Wednesday night with high pressure quickly settling in the area with clear skies and light winds. Portions of south central Nebraska north and east of Grand Island will likely drop below zero Wednesday night. The cold start Thursday leads into a cold day but we will start to some moderation of temperatures again Friday and Saturday helping to spark from melting again. And like Wednesday, the warmer weather will precede another cold front likely to move through the Plains late next Saturday/Sunday (could be trace type event).

Looking at the 10-15 day period and beyond, the models/ensembles have trended colder again, though we could still some more "normal" temperatures mid month. The overall pattern in December still settles on cooler than normal overall. It appears to be a more active weather pattern in general, with more weather systems, but the flow leans toward a west/northwest flow, and that doesn't necessarily support a lot of precipitation (like large troughs/big storms). The next couple weeks look fairly void of major storm systems.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 532 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Mostly MVFR ceilings are expected this evening then MVFR (and possibly lower) are expected until at least 18z Monday. Low end VFR ceilings are expected for most of Monday afternoon. Light snow showers are expected overnight with some visibility reductions possible. Winds will transition towards the southeast then the southwest Monday morning.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for NEZ082>087. KS...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for KSZ005>007-017>019.