textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather expected today with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s

- Rain moves into the area this evening/tonight (40-60% PoPs) and continues into the day on Monday. Rain accumulations generally 0.10" or less.

- Gusty winds and cooler weather behind a cold front on Tuesday. Winds gusting over 40mph possible. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s through the end of the forecast period.

- Increasing chances for the first wintry storm of the season arriving next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 233 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Clear skies and light winds this morning have resulted in temperatures dipping into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Patchy fog has developed across portions of north central Kansas, but widespread dense fog is not expected. Southerly flow strengthens over the area today ahead of an approaching low. This will result in another pleasant day across the area as temperatures climb into the upper 50s to low 60s during the afternoon. Increasing cloud coverage is expected during the day as the low moves into the Plains.

Rain moves southwest to northeast into the area this evening-night. PoPs remain widespread, with a 40-60% chance across the forecast area. Despite the fairly high PoPs, accumulations remain light, with most areas seeing accumulations of 0.10" or less. The most widespread rain is expected tonight-Monday morning. Rain chances will come to an end from west to east during the day on Monday, becoming dry by the evening hours. Highs on Monday will be in the low 50s. A strong cold front moves through the area on Tuesday, bringing colder temperatures and gusty winds. The strongest winds on Tuesday will be along and north of Interstate 80, with winds gusting over 40mph possible. Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track, with below normal temperatures continuing through the end of the forecast period (Highs upper 30s-mid 40s, lows 10s-20s). Dry weather is expected for Thanksgiving. Next weekend, looks to be the first chance for wintry weather for the forecast area, this system will continue to be monitored closely over the coming days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1149 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Tonight into Sunday...

High pressure, clear skies, and light winds may result in some valley fog, primarily within a few hours either side of sunrise Sunday morning. At this point any fog appears that it would be patchy, shallow, and not very long lasting, maybe 1-3 hours. Most areas can expect a quiet and clear night.

The wind will become southerly on Sunday bringing in some higher dewpoints and we'll have a closed low lifting northeast out of the desert southwest. This will result in increasing clouds Sunday afternoon and evening, but with rain chances holding off until after sunset. As mentioned in the key messages section above, this is a high probability for precipitation (>50%) but also likely that it will only be light amounts (less than 0.10"). The most likely time frame for any rainfall will be Sunday night between 11 PM and 7 AM.

Monday...

Rainfall chances will begin to decrease from west to east and most areas should be dry by afternoon. Again this is a light rainfall event with the NBM probability of receiving 0.10" or more of precipitation over 24 hrs only (30-60%). That probability shrinks to 10-30% for reaching 0.25" of rain Sunday night into Monday. Highs should still be in the 50s with good forecast confidence and a low model spread. However, clouds and a few showers will mean that it will feel less pleasant than Sunday.

Tuesday through Friday...

We'll see our first push of cooler air into the region on Tuesday behind the departing Monday system. Then an even stronger punch of cold air is expected Tuesday evening behind a quick moving clipper that will track across the Dakotas giving North Dakota some snow, but just colder for our area.

After that 2nd clipper Tuesday evening our pattern grows quiet for at least Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day with northwesterly flow and mainly dry conditions. Good travel conditions are likely Wednesday and Thursday all across the plains states. We do have an outlying 10% of the 12Z ECMWF ensembles indicating some light snow over portions of Nebraska on Thanksgiving, but our forecast will follow the 90% that give us a dry Thanksgiving Day.

By Friday after Thanksgiving we start to see an upper trough develop across the western United States that will be our next storm system. There could be some warm air advection snow ahead of this system (<20% chance) over far northeastern Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa, but the NBM average is still dry, just a few outlying models giving a light skip of snow on Friday northeast of our forecast area.

High temperatures Tuesday through Friday are likely to be in the 40s, but with a larger model spread that includes the possibility of colder 30 degree highs as well.

Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving...

Holiday travelers will need to keep a close eye on weather conditions for the return trip Saturday and Sunday. Almost half of the 50 ECMWF ensembles are producing accumulating snow somewhere over our forecast area during the Saturday/Sunday time frame following Thanksgiving. There will likely be a developing storm system over the plains during this time frame, but with significant uncertainty at this time regarding storm track, strength, and speed.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions remain in the forecast for this TAF period, and outside of the final few hours, the forecast remains dry. Expecting little in the way of cloud cover tonight on into the late morning-midday hours, before increasing mid-upper level clouds start working in from the WSW. Ceilings look to lower with time, kept things VFR at this point, but those final few hours could see MVFR conditions develop. An upper level storm system sliding on the the Plains will bring increasing rain chances...with the overall best chances looking to be after the end of this TAF period. Winds remain light/variable tonight into the first part of Sunday...then turns more southerly for the remainder of the period. Speeds look to top out around 15 MPH during the afternoon hours.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.