textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet weather pattern will begin tonight into Tuesday and continue through Thursday. Widespread total rainfall amounts of 1.5-3" are expected over the three days, aided by unseasonably high atmospheric moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Polo.

- Prospects for appreciable dry breaks in the rain are limited, effectively leading to "washout" type days Wednesday-Thursday.

- Ensemble 90th percentile QPF forecast maxes out between 4-5", which, if comes to fruition, could lead to areas of flooding given already wet soils from last week's rain event. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall/flooding.

- Much quieter weather arrives in time for the weekend. Slightly below normal temperatures are favored - highs 60s/70s, and lows in the 40s/50s.

UPDATE

Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for a good chunk of south central Nebraska where airport obs and webcams suggest visbilities mostly in the 1/4 to 1/2 mile range. Ran it through 11AM, though may improve by around 10AM.

UPDATE

Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Here we are with yet another early morning of expanding stratus/fog. Latest thinking is that fog shouldn't be quite as dense as it was 24 hours ago, or if it does become dense, it won't be quite as widespread. Have little confidence in short term models to accurately handle the cloud cover once we get past midday. Guidance suggests we remain socked in low cloud cover most of the day (which, conceptually, seems plausible given weak mixing and light E/SE low level flow). However, this is no different than the past couple of days, and each afternoon we were able to scatter out the clouds quite a bit more than expected. Forecast highs may once again be too cool, but figure surprises to the warm side aren't too impactful, or complaint-worthy, this time of year.

Obviously, focus shifts to the incoming rain chances as early as Monday night in our W/NW...with gradually expanding chances expected throughout the daytime hours Tuesday. Appears the initial surge of moisture will generally favor areas from around the Tri-Cities, but especially W and N, through the AM hours Tuesday. As such, S/SE zones may remain dry through at least the first half of the day Tuesday. However, models are in decent agreement rain chances will expand to encompass the entire forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening.

The duo combination of a large scale upper low (currently digging S/SE along the CA Coast) and the remnants of Hurricane Polo will emerge onto the Central Plains on Wednesday, and only slowly fill/shift SE on Thursday. Exactly where one or two primary SW to NE bands set-up, and when they truly peak in intensity, still remains uncertain...owing to the complex mid- upper level interactions and mesoscale nuances. Will probably be facing some training and/or nearly stationary, very efficient rain producing bands wherever they do setup - similar to last week. PWATs look to be extremely anomalous for this time of year at +3 to +4 standard deviations (or 250%+ of normal), and given already damp soils from last week's rainfall...am concerned we could see some hydro issues. WPC has placed us in a "Slight Risk" for excessive rainfall. Would place the overall-greatest threat for flooding in our area roughly along and south of the NE/KS state line. As noted below, this system will probably have a fairly sharp gradient in amounts on it's northern side...which COULD come into play for our far W/NW zones. At this point, however, am hesitant to say anyone is going to truly "miss out" on this system as relatively coarse ensemble guidance often "washes out" (bad pun) these signals 3-4 days out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Tonight and Monday...

Gentle ridging aloft today will keep conditions fairly quiet tonight and for the first half of the day Monday. Given the partly cloudy skies, highs (outside of a few north central Kansas locations) have struggled to break out of the 70s. Similar to the previous night, low temperatures overnight should return back to the upper 50s to low 60s. Though model prognostics tend to be less excited about the fog potential tonight (only 50% of the HREF members as opposed to 80% the previous night), it is hard to overlook the similar returning conditions (light easterly winds and low 60s dewpoints). The main uncertainty regarding the fog potential for tonight would be from the presence of a thick layer of low-level stratus. This deck of clouds could act like a blanket, insulating temperatures by a few degrees (possibly keeping lows from reaching their dewpoints). If this plays out, the fog potential could be limited or less intense than from this past morning. The RRFS guidance also hints that the pockets of dense fog may overall be more isolated than widespread.

Beyond the potential for fog Monday morning, cloudy skies retaining across much of the day will once again keep temperatures from escaping out of the 70s for Monday, despite the presence of steady southeasterly warm air advecting winds. Aloft, a shortwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies overnight Monday could bring the area its next precipitation chances. The bigger forecast shift over the last 24-hours has been to delay the onset of precipitation chances from overnight Monday to Tuesday. This lag in the guidance comes as higher resolution model guidance (HREF members) have been slower to move in precipitation compared to the global models (GFS/ECMWF). Now that this event is within range of the higher-res short-term guidance, a greater contribution to or weight of the forecast is shifting from the GFS/ECMWF timing more towards the HREF/RRFS guidance. This trend, though slower to present itself, is also starting to be observed with the National Blend of Models (NBM) as well.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The main story for the middle of the week will be the potential for extended periods of steady and occasionally heavy rainfall, especially across the Tuesday-Thursday time period. Hurricane Polo in the Pacific is soon expected to be steered northeast and into the Southern Plains by an approaching southwest U.S. trough. The outer plume of moisture by this hurricane is likely to stretch north and into the local area by Wednesday. This increase in moisture content across the area will enhance precipitation efficiency across the middle to end of the week (PWAT values as high as 1.75-2"...over 2 times greater than the average end of september values around 0.75").

The earliest arrival for precipitation this week now looks to come Tuesday. Between Tuesday and Thursday, multiple rounds of widespread rain showers will be expected to lift north and up across all of central Kansas/Nebraska. Though steady precipitation chances generally hold across all three days, the highest confidence window and peak rainfall amounts will look to come across the Wednesday and Wednesday night period when the surface low is closest to the area (crossing through southern Kansas). This low will continue to push east and away across the day Thursday, leaving the most uncertainty within the first arrival window of showers on Tuesday and the last lingering bands of precipitation on Thursday.

The latest NBM QPF guidance project between 2-4" of precipitation to fall across the area over this three day period with the locally heavier amounts generally concentrated towards the south and east (locations closer to the system center). It is important to know that some guidance has suggested a slightly further northward track of this system that could shift our forecast amounts northward. If this northward trend continues, areas north of I-80 could overachieve current expectations with the far south and southeast portions of the area underachieving expectations.

For far northern portions of the area (locations north of I-80), through the mean/most likely value is around 2-2.5" of precipitation, a large gap separates the high end (75th percentile) and the low end (25th percentile) model guidance (spread of the NBM ensemble). In fact the low end values (25% percentile where 75% of the guidance exceeds) is around 1.25-1.75" with the upper limit (75th percentile where only 25% of the guidance exceeds) is between 2-4". This high range comes from the fact where central Nebraska is likely to find itself within the outer bounds of the system. Precipitation amounts for these locations are the most susceptible to the system track (sharp precipitation gradient). A north or south shift of the system track can vastly effect precipitation amounts across the "fringes" compared to locations across central Kansas that lie closer to the system center track. In comparison, the portions of the forecast area with the higher end forecast precipitation amounts (3-4" for north central Kansas and Nebraska areas southeast of the Tri-Cities), have the lower end guidance (25th percentile) around 2-2.75" with the upper end guidance (75th percentile) around 3.5-4". Within the last 24-hours, the confidence in the higher-end amounts have seemed to diminish some. If this trend continues, it is possible for forecast amounts to also decrease in the upper bounds.

Given the anomalously high moisture concentration with the large window of steady rain showers, the WPC has included the entire area underneath a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (15-40% chance of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point) for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Besides the precipitation potential this week, temperatures look to be on track to steadily decrease a few degrees. Given the continuation of mostly cloudy skies across much of the week (primarily through Thursday) and the passage of a cold front Tuesday night, temperatures are forecast to peak between the upper 50s and 70s each day this week. Highs could reach their coolest point for the week around Friday (upper 50s to mid 60s). Overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s appear possible to achieve both Thursday and Friday nights.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: LIFR conditions (CIGs and VSBYs) have overspread both terminals this morning and don't expect any improvement until at least 15Z. In fact, both sites will likely be at or below their minimums for at least a couple more hours. Fog will gradually lift and scatter late AM/midday, with hopefully a return to VFR conditions in the 19-21Z time frame. Winds will be out of the ESE/SE and gradually increase to 8-12kt.

Tonight: May finally have a night without substantial flight category reductions. Most guidance keeps conditions VFR through the night, though don't want to completely discount potential for patchy, minor fog. Rain chances increase at or just beyond of this valid period, so kept it dry this go around.

Confidence: Medium to high.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ046>048- 060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...None.