textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are forecast to continue tonight on through most of (potentially all) the daytime hours on Friday. Highs expected to reach the mid 50s-near 60 Thursday, with most spots right around 60 for Friday.

- Friday night into the day on Saturday brings the next chances for precipitation to the area, with the best chances focused over areas along/south of the NE/KS state line. The brunt of precipitation (all-liquid event) is shown by most models to be south of the forecast area, though some ensemble data shows at least low probabilities of 0.1 in or more reaching into southern NE.

- The Sun-Tue timeframe is overall dry, with high temperatures climbing into the 60s-near 70, peaking on Tuesday. Another disturbances will bring another chance for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Currently...

Dry conditions remain in place across the region today, with satellite imagery showing variable cloud cover as batches of mid-upper level clouds pass through. Upper level flow over the Plains remains zonal...with upper air and satellite data showing us set up between area of low pressure spinning off the northern CA coast and over eastern ME. South-southwesterly winds continue across the forecast area this afternoon, sitting on the west edge of an area of sfc high pressure roughly centered over the NE/IA/MO/KS border area. Overall speeds have been around 15 MPH, with a handful of gusts closer to 20 MPH at times. No big surprises as far as temperatures go, on track to top out in the low-mid 50s. Near-critical fire weather conditions will remain a possibility across the western fringes the rest of this afternoon, but not looking at hitting Red Flag criteria.

Tonight into Thursday...

Models continue to show the potential for some scattered light precip later tonight associated with a weak upper level disturbance crossing the Central/Nrn Plains. Kept the forecast dry, as agreement is pretty good with the better chances remaining focused just off to our NNE near the NE/SD/IA border area. Otherwise no notable changes were noted in models, which keep the zonal upper level flow in place, with that West Coast disturbance pushing further inland and digging into southern CA through Thursday night. At the surface, winds tonight remain southerly, turning more SWrly late tonight as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. During the day on Thursday, this boundary gradually pushes through the region...but other than bringing a switch to more NNWrly winds, not much in terms of notable impact is expected. Expecting sky cover to once again be variable...and forecast afternoon highs are actually a touch warmer, reaching the mid 50s-near 60 degrees.

Friday and Saturday...

Main forecast concern for the end of the week remains with increasing preciptiation chances. The upper level disturbance mentioned above over southern CA is shown by models to start making a better push east during the day on Friday, ending up roughly over the AZ/NM border by late evening. Looking like that 12-00Z Friday time frame is dry for most/potentially all of the forecast area...could be a close call late in that period for far SW portions. Will be seeing increasing cloud cover from SW- NE as that system approaches...with winds switching back to the south as sfc low pressure deepens a big over the central High Plains. Forecast highs remain right around 60 degrees.

Friday night on into the day on Saturday...overall models aren't in too bad of a agreement with the track of this upper level system. Outside of some minor track/timing details...models showing the center of the system sliding along the OK/TX border. This keeps the brunt of precipitation south of the forecast area in KS/OK/TX...with the NAM remaining on the more aggressive side with how far north QPF gets, with amounts around 0.5in reaching into southern NE. Agreement is good that the thermal profiles support this being an all-liquid event, which is pretty unusual for mid-February. Looking at the GFS/ECMWF deterministic and ensemble data, those type of amounts are over the southern half of KS and points south. Ensemble data show the probability of 0.5 in or more only around 10 percent, and that's just along our far southern row of counties. Probabilities of 0.1 in are better, with the 10 percent line closer to HWY 6, and roughly 40- 50 percent along our southern row of counties. What precip there ends up being is expected to end by mid-late evening Saturday. Confidence in highs for Saturday is not high because of the uncertainties with the northward extend of precip (which will be hindered by drier air/more northerly winds)...current forecast has low-mid 50s in the SSE to near 60 in the NNW.

Sunday and on...

For the first half of the new week, currently much of it looks to be on the dry side for most of the forecast area. For Sunday and Monday (and possibly Tuesday as well) , overall-broad upper level ridging is expected to slide onto the Plains in the wake of Fri-Sat's system, keeping things dry. Potential for another system to bring preciptiation moves in late in the day Tuesday, more likely Tues night-Wednesday...at this point models are favoring the northern half of the forecast area with those chances. With being in the Day 6-7 periods, hard to have a ton of confidence in many details...chances remain low at 20 percent. Ahead of that system, potential for temperatures to climb further into the 60s (maybe some 70s?), currently forecast to top out on Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Southerly winds will be around 8-10kts overnight. Around sunrise, winds begin to shift to the north, remaining light through the afternoon. SCT- BKN mid-high level clouds are favored throughout the TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.