textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Shortwave disturbance currently working its way through the Central Plains is helping drive the ongoing scattered precipitation early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible through early-mid morning.

- Expecting a lull in activity during a good chunk of the daytime hours today...with continued gusty southerly winds and highs climbing into the 70s ahead of an approaching cold front.

- By mid-late afternoon, this surface cold front will be roughly halfway through the forecast area...and will provide a focus for thunderstorm development. Potential remains that some storms will be strong-severe. While damaging winds/hail are the primary threat, an isolated tornado is not out of the question.

- Precipitation chances linger into Tuesday...with the forecast drying out Wednesday through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Currently...

Continuing to see scattered precipitation work its way northeast across the area...a trend that will continue through the rest of the early morning hours. In the upper levels...the eastern half of the CONUS sits under a less amplified pattern of weaker ridging/troughing...compared to the Rockies/most of the western half of the CONUS driven by a larger/deeper trough axis. Satellite and upper air data showing the main axis still off to our west this morning...with an embedded shortwave disturbance out ahead currently moving through the central High Plains. This lead disturbance and increased warm air/moisture advection along a stronger low-level jet is what is driving the ongoing activity across the region...with radar showing the back edge working through western KS/southwestern NE. At the surface...gusty south-southeasterly winds will continue through the rest of tonight...as the forecast area sits east of a deepening area of low pressure over northeastern portions of CO. Gusts mainly in the 25-35 MPH expected to continue the rest of tonight. SPC Meso page/short term models showing at least a few hundred j/kg of instability spreading across the area through the rest of tonight...so at least a few thunderstorms remain possible.

Today through Tuesday night...

The wave of ongoing scattered preciptiation continues to push northeast this morning...largely exiting the forecast area by/near the 12-15Z timeframe. Once it moves out...short term/hi-res models show the potential for a notable lull in activity across the forecast area...as we sit between the departing upper level wave and the larger scale trough axis. During the daytime hours today...as that next push of upper level forcing approaches, an accompanying surface cold front will be working its way east...with models in pretty good agreement showing the front along our WNW border by midday. Through the afternoon hours, this front will continue to trek across the forecast area...becoming a focus for increasing thunderstorm chances, potentially already by mid-afternoon. Models showing the fronts progress being on the slow side...only about halfway through the forecast area by 00Z.

Ahead of this frontal boundary today, the gusty southerly winds continue, with gusts exceeding 30 MPH continuing at least through the first half of the day...not out of the question that some gusts closer to 40 MPH occur. Dewpoints around 60 have already worked their way into southern portions of the area early this morning...those mainly lower 60s dewpoints will continue pushing north today. Along with a potential for more sun in the dry slot/warm sector, highs today could reach into the mid 70s across central/eastern portions of the forecast area. Models showing the potential for an axis of MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 j/kg nosing north into the area ahead of the sfc front...and with the increasing mid-level forcing spreading across the area...expecting at least scattered thunderstorms to develop along the front, including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. While damaging wind gusts, then hail, are the primary threats...it's not out of the question isolated brief tornadoes could occur, mainly over SErn portions of the area as the low-level jet picks up early this evening.

Tonight into Tuesday...the area of upper level low pressure that is shown by models to deepen over SErn CO during the day today will slide east-northeast across the Central Plains...keeping chances for showers/thunderstorms in the forecast. Ensemble data, especially the ECMWF, continue to show good probabilities of at least 0.5" or more by the time it's all said and done Tuesday evening...even showing a decent swath of 50+ percent chance of 1" or more across the area. The GEFS is not as optimistic. Following highs today in the low-mid 70s...highs on Tuesday, sitting behind the front and with lingering precip chances, fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Mid-late week...

Forecast remains dry Wednesday through Friday in the wake of this latest upper level system passing through...with scattered low-end (20 percent) chances returning this weekend. Currently don't have much of a rebound in temperatures...with forecast highs Wed-weekend mainly in the 50s-low 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

An upper level trough extends from Canada southward to California. Nebraska and Kansas are just ahead of the upper trough with mainly southeast winds across the forecast area. High temperatures today across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be hindered by the persistent cloud cover but are expected to be in the upper 50s and 60s. Light rain showers are expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon into tonight. Precipitation intensity and amounts are expected to increase by late tonight across portions of the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop with the heaviest precipitation under these storms. Rainfall amounts tonight will generally be a quarter of an inch or less except in areas of thunderstorms where amounts of around an inch may occur. Winds will increase out of the southeast this evening into tonight (sustained at around 15 to 25 MPH) as a low-level jet moves over the area. The winds along with the persistent cloud cover will prevent temperatures from cooling much overnight. In fact, temperatures may warm slightly as the night progresses with increasing wind speeds and heavier rainfall. Lows tonight are expected to be in the 50s and 60s.

The upper trough/low moves over the central Plains on Monday. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to mainly be out of the forecast area by noon on Monday with skies clearing during the afternoon. A surface trough will be across the area during the afternoon with gusty, southerly winds (sustained at around 15 to 25 MPH with gusts possibly up to 40 to 50 MPH in some areas). There is some uncertainty with high temperatures on Monday due to the timing of a cold front, strength of the surface trough, and departure timing of the precipitation and cloud cover. Generally think temperatures will warm up into the mid 60s to mid/upper 70s. There is a possibility (20% to 30% chance) of temperatures reaching the low 80s in portions of north central Kansas. The timing of the cold front across the forecast area is expected to range from the mid afternoon through late evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon into the evening hours. Some of these storms may become strong to severe depending on if the atmosphere has enough time to destabilize between the exiting rain and cloud cover earlier in the day to the timing of the cold front. Tend to think there will be enough destabilization for strong to severe storms to develop. Storm development could be as early as 3 PM and as late as around 7 PM. Temperatures Monday night are expected to cool into the 40s and low 50s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger into Monday night.

The upper level trough/low will remain across the area on Tuesday but will be a little further east. The cold front will continue pushing through the area with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Rain showers are expected to continue across portions of the area on Tuesday. Expect gusty, northerly winds on Tuesday with gusts up to around 40 MPH possible in some areas. Low temperatures Tuesday night are expected to cool into the 30s and 40s. A slight warm up is expected on Wednesday with drier conditions. High temperatures will continue to be in the 50s and 60s Thursday through Saturday with low temperatures generally in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR to LIFR ceilings will be expected to stick around for the rest of the night with cloud bases beginning to rise/scatter out after 11z. MVFR ceilings could return as early as 13z for KEAR and as early as 15z for KGRI. VFR conditions look possible to return for much of the 16-0z period for KEAR and most of the 18-3z period for KGRI. At least MVFR cloud bases will be expected to return sometime between 0-4z Monday evening.

Light rain showers could pass in and out of both terminal sites tonight, bringing occasional drops in visibilities. These overnight showers, however, should clear out before sunrise. Thunderstorm chances return after 22z Monday afternoon as a cold front looks to power through. This front will additionally be responsible for flipping wind direction around from a southerly direction to a northwestelry directions.

Winds tonight have already taken off with speeds near 20kts and gusting to between 30-35kts. These speeds/gusts will be favored to maintain until closer to the fronts arrival Monday afternoon. With the low-level nocturnal jet strong aloft tonight, LLWS should maintain until Monday morning. Northwestelry winds behind the front Monday afternoon will keep steady 10-15kts winds around with gusts as high as 20-25ks.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.