textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers continue throughout the morning-early afternoon hours most likely across northeastern portions of the area. A few weak thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon-evening hours.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Saturday evening. If storms develop, they could become severe capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the end of the forecast period with highs in the 80s and scattered chances for precipitation each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Scattered rain is ongoing across mainly central and eastern portions of the area this morning. Aloft a ridge remains in place over the Plains/Midwest due to a deepening troughing over the Northeast. An upper level low sits over the southwest with an embedded weak disturbance trapped beneath ridging over the central/southern Plains. This disturbance responsible for the ongoing showers will gradually shift north/northeast across the area today. In association, rain chances (30-80%) lift northeast throughout the daytime hours. A few weak thunderstorms may develop in this broader rain shield during the afternoon hours. The steadiest/highest chances for rain today will occur across northeastern portions of the area (Northeast of a Hebron-Ord line). Additionally, a few thunderstorms that develop over western KS/NE may move into west/southwest portions of the area during the evening-overnight hours, though at this time most areas look to remain dry tonight.

This weekend...

Aloft, the upper level low begins to move deeper into the Rockies on Saturday. At the surface, skies clear from the southwest to the northeast during the day. Highs will be in the 80s to around 90 degrees, warmest across southwestern portions of the area. Southeasterly winds result in persistent moisture advection over the area and keeps dewpoints in the 60s. Steep lapse mid level lapse rates (8 C/Km) results in CAPE values climbing to 2000-3000 J/Kg. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible during the afternoon-evening hours along the dryline/warm front in western Nebraska/Kansas. Modest capping should limit how widespread storm development will be. If/when storms do develop, CAPE and shear (30kts) are supportive for these storms to become severe. Storms would move into the area western portions of the area during the evening hours with a threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Another seasonably warm day is expected on Sunday as highs reach the mid 80s to low 90s. The warm and moist airmass results in another unstable airmass developing during the afternoon-evening hours. Similar to Saturday, capping and weak forcing should keep storms fairly isolated-scattered. Still, the atmosphere will be supportive for storms that develop to become strong-severe.

Otherwise the forecast remains on track with scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms each day under west-southwesterly flow aloft. Near-above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Near Term...Tonight through Friday Evening..

Widespread showers with an isolated storm or two, will continue to cover the area through the rest of the evening and overnight hours tonight. Generally speaking, precipitation rates, though off and on at times, should continue to increase through the night as the more concentrated precipitation bands migrate northward (currently resining over north central Kansas). The High-resolution short-range model guidance seems to be in general agreement that these widespread showers will scatter out across the Friday morning to early afternoon hours. These showers/storms will clear out in the order in which they arrived, clearing from the southwest to the northeast. In total, around 0.2-0.5" of precipitation can be expected to fall north of I-80, with 0.3-0.7" possible across Nebraska locations south of I-80. Precipitation amounts across north central Kansas will likely range between 0.5" to just over 1".

Though much of the afternoon and evening hours on Friday will be dry, overcast skies will still stick around the area, keeping highs from exceeding the 70s to low 80s. Winds will stay out of the southeast tonight and Friday, lightening across the overnight hours. During the afternoon, speeds will return back to a steady 10-15MPH breeze with gusts up to 20-25MPH. Aloft, a closed low centered over the California/Great Basin region will continue to keep south to southeasterly flow locked in place across the next several days as it continues to block the west to east upper-level flow. Meanwhile, a positively tilted ridge axis extending from the Southeastern U.S. up to the Northern Plains, has been channeling the mid-to-upper level flow from the Southwest U.S. up to and around this Northern Plains stretching ridge. An embedded shortwave trough, riding this flow north across the Central Plains, has been responsible for stirring up the widespread showers across the area today.

Short Term...Friday night through Sunday....

Despite a break in precipitation Friday afternoon to evening, a few scattered storms may redevelop overnight Friday. The current forecast brings a 30-65% chance for storms overnight Friday with the best confidence concentrated to the north and east. These storms are not likely to be severe. A slightly better potential for storms (35-70%, greatest to the northeast) will come again Saturday afternoon to night as another shortwave disturbance ejects out from the Rockies. The presence of a slightly more robust nocturnal low-level jet with better instability (2,000-4,000J/kg of MUCAPE) could bring a slight potential for a few stronger to marginally severe developing storms (Marginal Severe Weather Outlook...level 1/5). Yet another round of storms will be possible Sunday, though more uncertainty in regards to location and coverage keeps the potential slightly more limited for now (25-50% chances).

Highs through Sunday will raise up to the 80s as the overcast skies begin to clear. Winds will also show little change as directions continue to maintain their southeasterly orientation. Aloft, the end of week Western U.S. low will begin to weaken and lift northward some. This will shift the upper-level pattern away from meridional to more zonal flow. The current wet and stormy weekend conditions, however, may stick around for a few more days as back to back passages of embed shortwave disturbances take their swings at the Central Plains.

Long Term...Monday and Beyond....

Daily precipitation chances will continue on into next week given the potential for a few additional passing shortwave disturbances. With lower forecast confidence in the extended period, specifics regarding the location and timing of precipitation or even the potential for severe weather remain limited at this time. Though at least a small chance of precipitation returns each day through next Thursday (15-30%), some global ensemble forecast guidance is beginning to hint at the transition to an expansive ridging upper- level pattern sometime near the middle to end of next week. If this actualizes, drier conditions with warming temperatures will be favored for the middle to end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR-LIFR ceilings will persist through the morning hours with at least MVFR ceilings expected through TAF period. There remains some uncertainty on how quickly ceilings will rise this afternoon, but MVFR ceilings are expected sometime during the late morning- early afternoon. Skies could clear enough for MVFR stratus to become briefly SCT, though confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Low MVFR ceilings develop Friday night-Saturday mornings. There could be a shift to IFR overnight, but confidence in this occurring is too low to introduce a FM group.

Scattered showers are possible throughout the morning hours, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. A break in rain is likely during the evening-early overnight hours, though some scattered showers may redevelop late in the TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.