textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue pushing east through the area early this morning, a few strong to marginally severe storms are not out of the question.

- Through the daytime hours today, lingering precip chances look to focus more across east-northeastern portions of the area...with much of the area potentially dry from roughly late morning on through the afternoon. Late day storms expected to develop along the High Plains will have the potential to push east into the area tonight...a few strong-severe storms will again be possible.

- Periodic upper level disturbances keep the train of days with storm chances intact mid-late week...but not looking at a non- stop rainout. Main chances will favor the late day/evening and overnight hours. Forecast highs through the end of the week remain in the low-mid 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Currently...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to work their way east across the Central Plains early this morning...this activity through central NE/KS is driven primarily by a couple of MCVs, one moving through the northern portions of our forecast area, the other moving across southern KS. Radar over the last hour or so has also shown a ramp up in an arc of storms from north central/western KS into eastern CO...lined up across the convergence zone on the nose of an increased low-level jet. Through the rest of tonight...this activity will continue pushing east...and while a few strong-severe storms are not out of the question, that would be the exception. Looking at a broader picture across the CONUS, the disturbance that helped spark the initial activity out over the High Plains is embedded in west-southwesterly flow...set up between an area of low pressure spinning near the Montana/Canada border (and southward extending troughing) and ridging extending NNE from TX into Ontario. Upper air and satellite data show this pattern continuing to be slow to move/ blocked up by stubborn troughing along the East Coast. At the surface, winds become increasingly ESErly through the midday-afternoon hours as we sat east of the main area of low presure/frontal boundary...but as this activity as made its way through, various storm-driven boundaries have made for a messy pattern and winds from several directions depending on where you're located.

Today/Tonight...

At least isolated to scattered showers and storms may be pretty slow to clear the forecast area, and a few models suggest it never truly does, especially for the eastern half where a subtle mid-upper level trough axis may be lingering around. High precip chances during the daytime hours are in the 12-18Z time frame...but have fairly broad 20-30 percent chances through the afternoon hours, though most locations will likely be dry. Winds are expected to eventually turn back to the southeast...and can't rule out some gusts near 20-25 MPH through the afternoon hours. No notable changes were made to forecast highs this afternoon, with mainly upper 70s-low 80s expected.

Late this afternoon, models showing yet another upper level shortwave disturbance sliding out of the Rockies and onto the High Plains...sparking another round of thunderstorms along sfc troughing. This activity is expected to push east through the evening-overnight hours, aided by the low-level jet ramping up to around 35-40kts. Main question will again be how much of this activity can be maintained further east, and the timing. Best chances for our forecast area looks to be late evening on into the overnight hours...and can't rule out a few on the strong-marginally severe side, though activity the further east it goes models show it moving into weaker shear. Areas from Valley County NE to Rooks County KS and west are included in the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area...damaging winds and large hail would be the primary threats.

Mid-Late Week...

Models finally start showing a little more eastward progress with the upper level pattern...but it remains an active pattern for the Central Plains. There's not a lot of change in the pattern on Wednesday, still mainly southwesterly with that main upper low over central Canada, with ridging expanding across more of the Midwest...then Thu-Fri that ridging gets broken down and flow is more zonal across the area. Embedded shortwave disturbances continue making their way through...driving the continuation of several days with precipitation chances, but not looking at a non-stop rainout, it's just difficult to pin down specific timing/location details the further out in time you go. The better chances of storms look to be during that typical late day-evening-overnight time frame. Potential for strong-severe storms will also linger, but again hard to have a ton of confidence in details further out...Wednesday does remain part of the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area across central and western portions of the forecast area.

As far as temperatures go, not looking at any notable swings either way...and things could be greatly impacted by any activity that happens to linger further into the daytime hours. At this point forecast highs Wed-Sat remain in the low-mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms developed just southwest of the local area early this morning and weakened as they tracked east northeast through the afternoon hours. As skies clear behind the remaining cloud cover, expect temperatures to rebound into the mid 80s to near 90 by late afternoon...with eyes then turning west where the next line of showers and thunderstorms is currently starting to intensify over the central Rockies.

Models today have been fairly consistent developing a fairly large complex of storms over the high plains later this afternoon...which should track east towards the local area during the evening hours. This fairly widespread area of storms...some of which could be severe given the available instability and nearly 40 KTS of 0-6 KM shear...should reach our western areas by around 8 PM...and likely the Tri-cities closer to 10PM. Given the potential for some organized storms embedded in this cluster, hail to around half dollar size will be possible initially during the evening hours, with the main threat transitioning to strong thunderstorm wind gusts later in the event. Currently, we remain in a slight risk for severe weather for western areas and a more marginal risk from roughly the Tri-cities and to the east/northeast, which seems reasonable considering the timing and expected evolution of this event.

Behind the initial surge of thunderstorms late tonight, several models indicate redevelopment on its backside...likely fed by a southeasterly LLJ...which could keep things active in spots until around daybreak Tuesday. Skies will eventually clear by midday, however, with another seasonably warm afternoon in store for the local area. In fact, with a weak upper level flow pattern and the lack of strong or persistent ridging, most days over the next 7-10 days should have near to slightly above normal temperatures each afternoon with periodic chances for thunderstorms largely driven by weak disturbances in westerly flow and plenty of available instability forecast across the region. Given the uncertainty in timing and lack of really strong shear on any particular day, trying to time severe chances beyond the next 24 hours is difficult, although additional severe storm chances will be likely over the course of the next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 701 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: General overview: Although there are some question marks regarding the possibility for MVFR ceiling mainly very late in the period (mainly after 08Z), confidence is high that the vast majority of the period will prevail VFR ceiling/visibility with only a mid-level ceiling mainly at-or-above 4K ft. AGL.

As for rain/thunderstorm potential, the vast majority of the period is also expected to remain dry. However, especially KGRI appears prone to seeing at least spotty/passing showers and perhaps a few non-severe thunderstorms primarily this afternoon, so have included this in a PROB30 group 17-23Z. This same activity cannot be totally ruled out at KEAR, but chances appear too low to warrant a PROB30. Additional showers/weak storms could also develop late in the period overnight, but again confidence is too low for TAF inclusion.

As for winds (and not accounting for any potential thunderstorm outflow), they should not be a major concern. Direction will primarily be from the east-southeast to southeast...with the overall-strongest speeds expected to concentrate 17-23Z with sustained speeds generally 12-15KT/gusts around 20KT.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.