textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Today marks the "peak" of the increasingly-warm weather that's been building over the last few days, with high temps at least low-mid 90s most of our forecast area (CWA), and upper 90s to just over 100 in far southwest counties (heat index could reach/slightly exceed 100 mainly in Furnas/Phillips/Rooks counties).

- Isolated/scattered showers and primarily weak thunderstorms arrive from the west this evening-overnight as a seasonably- strong cold front passes A few storms could possibly be on the strong side mainly in our far west/northwest counties, capable of producing 50+ MPH winds.

- Much cooler temperatures prevail Tues-Wed in the wake of the front (highs only 70s most of our area both days).

- While most places will be dry most of the time Tues-Wed, isolated to scattered showers/mostly weak thunderstorms are possible almost anywhere, with the overall-highest chances/coverage favoring late Tues night-Wed morning.

- The vast majority of Tues-Wed storms should be fairly weak (and thus far SPC has kept us out of any official Marginal Risks), but probably cannot rule out at least small hail potential (storms will be mainly elevated...not surface based).

- Mostly quiet/dry weather Thurs-Fri as temps start warming.

- Mainly dry weather expected to persist this weekend into nearly next week, but there is increasing concern for a multi- day stretch of fairly hot weather to set up shop...potentially putting heat index back to 100+ degrees in at least parts of our CWA.

UPDATE

Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES WORTH NOTING/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/ITEMS OF NOTE BEYOND THE FIRST 48 HOURS: - As for actual changes, really nothing too noteworthy, although high temps have trended cooler for Tues-Wed with most of our CWA (especially Nebraska counties) only expected to see highs in the 70s.

- Even at this closer time range, there are still plenty of "finer details" to work out regarding our various chances for showers/thunderstorms tonight through Wednesday. The main "big picture expectations are that: 1) Coverage of rain/storms is likely to be pretty spotty much of this time (in other words, most areas dry most of the time). However, some (not all) models still key in on an uptick in more widespread coverage late Tues night into Wednesday AM (including the daylight hours) as a more focused shortwave trough passes through aloft.

2) No matter what, the vast majority of storms through Wednesday will surely be fairly weak, although we'll have to watch especially our far west/northwest counties for mainly some near-severe gust potential (50+ MPH) this evening, and then we'll need to watch primarily late Tues night-Wed AM for at least small hail potential as various models suggest that storms could tap into at least 1000 J/kg of elevated instability/CAPE. In terms of severe storm potential, cannot totally argue with SPC clipping our far western/northwestern fringes with the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for this evening, but storms should really "lose steam" as they get into our CWA. As for Tues night-Wed AM, am a touch surprised that SPC has refrained from a Marginal Risk (at least thus far) for perhaps marginally-severe hail potential, but it's also not a "slam dunk" hail setup either, with most storms likely producing only heavy downpours and perhaps small hail.

3) As for CUMULATIVE rain amounts tonight through Wednesday, the latest general consensus is that MOST of our CWA should receive somewhere between 0.25-1.00", with any localized higher amounts likely predicated on how widespread elevated convection actually ends up being late Tues night-Wed AM.

- Touching on the possible (likely?) heat concerns this weekend into early next week: Although admittedly overall-more supported by the latest ECMWF runs than the GFS (and obviously also not a "sure thing" being several days out), especially Sunday-Monday look to kick off at least a 3-4 day stretch of fairly hot weather...with heat index potential to 100+ degrees again coming into play (albeit probably not as humid/extreme as our extreme heat in late-July). Initially hesitated to slip this mention into our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID), but given how consistent/persistent recent runs of the ECMWF ensemble have been, opted to introduce it as a concern.

-- FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS IN GREATER DETAIL (through Tuesday afternoon): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: Absolutely zero surprises...everything panning out very much as outlined here 24 hours ago. Under almost completely clear skies (only a minor smattering of high cirrus), low temps are on track to bottom out mainly 63-66 degrees (slightly warmer than over the weekend). Unlike over the weekend, there is enough of a light-but-steady south-southeast breeze (most places 5-10 MPH) to keep fog development at bay.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short-term model data confirm that we remain under prevailing north-northwesterly flow for a short while longer...as our region resides under a highly-amplified interface between a southwestern CONUS high/ridge and an eastern CONUS low/trough. However, our upcoming changes are approaching in the form of a vigorous shortwave trough tracks east- southeast through MT. Meanwhile at the surface, the aforementioned steady light breezes are driven by an increasing pressure gradient between a high pressure axis now well to our east near the MS River...and a roughly 998 millibar low centered over western SD.

- TODAY (through around 7 PM): Although probably cannot completely rule out a few rogue sprinkles trying to develop into a few of our far northern/northwest counties this afternoon, have maintained an officially dry forecast as any "true" showers/storms should still be 50+ miles west of our CWA at 7 PM. Under mostly sunny skies (albeit a gradual increase in mid-high clouds mainly late in the day), winds will become quite breezy out of the south- southeast...sustained speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH. After aiming 3+ degrees too high on high temps yesterday, opted to be a bit more conservative for today, but no matter what most of our CWA should end up at least 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs low-mid 90s most places, but far southwest Kansas upper 90s to slightly over 100. After also aiming a little too low on dewpoints yesterday, tried to keep them a little on the higher side of guidance today. Fortunately, heat index should stay under 100 for the vast majority of our CWA, but especially Furnas/Phillips/Rooks could tag 100+ (but staying shy of Advisory criteria of 105).

- THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: In the mid-upper levels, the vigorous shortwave to our north will charge east through mainly ND/MN/into southeast Canada overnight, abruptly "flattening" our ridge-dominated pattern and sending a seasonably-strong cold front southward through our CWA...marked by a switch to north-northeasterly breezes. This front will be roughly halfway through our CWA by around midnight...and then nearly all the way through our southern/southeast counties by around sunrise. As already touched on above, at least a broken band of showers/mainly weak thunderstorms will develop into roughly the western/northwest half of our CWA mainly 8 PM-midnight...likely gradually weakening as it moves farther east and also diminishing in coverage/becoming more spotty as the night wears on. Although SPC technically clips a small part of our far west- central/northwest CWA with a Marginal risk of severe, it's pretty clear that the vast majority of severe potential should reside at least slightly off to our west-northwesst over the general Sandhills region...as latest RAP suggests instability/CAPE will be under 1000 J/kg amidst only modest deep-layer shear as storms get into our western counties. Certainly cannot totally rule out some gusts to around 50 MPH though into our far west. As for temps, lows aimed from low 60s northwest...mid 60s central...to upper 60s/around 70 far south/southeast.

- TUESDAY DAYTIME: In the wake of the cold front, it will be a much-cooler day. High temps have trended down slightly (and possibly not enough especially within our north half). More specifically, highs are now aimed mid 70s-low 80s most of our CWA, but ranging from low 70s north to mid 80s south (mainly KS) and perhaps a few upper 80s along our extreme southern edge where the front will arrive last. No matter, most all places 10-20 degrees cooler than today. As for shower/thunderstorm chances, they are best described as minimal...but still possible almost anywhere. Higher-res models (HRRR/NAMNest) suggest at least spotty showers/weak storms could occur here or there as fairly modest elevated instability interacts with ripples of low-amplitude energy passing through aloft from west-to-east. At the surface, breezy north-northeast winds will prevail...commonly sustained 15-20 MPH/gusts 20-30 MPH.

Higher/more widespread coverage rain/thunderstorm chances arrive later in the night into Wed AM as a stronger upper wave arrives from the west-northwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Currently Through Tonight...

Overall been a nice end to the weekend across the area...dry conditions continue, with satellite imagery showing no shortage of sunshine...though still seeing some hazy skies due to wildfire smoke streaming in from the north. A well-amplified upper level pattern remains in place across the CONUS this afternoon...with upper air and satellite data showing northerly flow across the forecast area. The Central Plains is sitting between a ridge axis extending from the Desert SW northeastward toward MN...becoming more dampened/tilted further east thanks to a low pressure system moving through central Canada...and a trough axis extending from eastern Canada south to the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, high pressure continues to gradually shift off to the east...but is keeping winds light across easterly portions of the area. To the west and northwest, a trough axis and frontal boundary are becoming better organized across the High Plains into the western Dakotas...bringing more solidly southerly winds to central and western areas, with occasional gusts near 20 MPH. No big surprises as far as temperatures go...forecast of mid-upper 80s east to low-mid 90s west remains on track.

Quiet conditions continue on into this evening and overnight. Due to the continued deepening of the sfc low/boundaries off to our WNW, not expecting a drop off in winds tonight...remaining southerly around 10-15 MPH. Lows look to drop into the mid 60s for much of the area.

Early to Mid-Week...

Getting into the start of the new work week...overall there hasn't been any significant changes to the forecast. During the daytime hours on Monday...models remain in good agreement showing an upper level disturbance working its way along the US/Can border into the Nrn Rockies/High Plains...the forecast for our area remains dry through 00Z. This system will be driving a surface cold front south with time...and models are still in decent agreement with the timing...showing at 00Z the placement of this front runs roughly from far SWrn NE north through the Sandhills and into central SD. Ahead of this front during the daytime hours...expecting gusty southerly winds and a bump up in temperatures. Sustained speeds around 20-25 MPH and gusts around 30-35 MPH are not out of the question...with highs around 90 expected in the east, around 100 in the WSW. During the mid-late afternoon hours...the RH/wind combo hits near- critical levels across far WSW portions of the area...but with fuels unfavorable for rapid fire growth, no formal headlines were considered...just something to be aware of.

Main question for the evening and overnight hours Monday lies with thunderstorm chances...still plenty of uncertainties with the overall coverage/impact. Models showing at least scattered activity firing along that surface boundary to work its way into WNW portions of the forecast area...aided by convergence along an increasing SSWrly low-level jet. With time, most models are keeping coverage of activity generally scattered in nature with its eastward shift...likely hindered by the fact that the better upper level forcing is better focused to our north and that mid-level/temps is another element storms would have to overcome. As a result, the higher precip chances in the evening (40-60 percent) are focused across far WNW portions of the area...then spread east but drop into the 20-30 percent range overnight.

As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday...models are in good agreement showing that the upper level pattern has transitioned to more zonal in nature having further dampened the main ridging. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue both days...as additional waves of upper level shortwave energy push through the region. Still plenty of uncertainties with the details...as timing/location of chances will be greatly influenced by activity that happens the previous evening/overnight...and how that impacts the ultimate placement of the main surface cold front or any other lingering boundaries. The most uncertainty with those details lies with Tuesday/Tuesday night...as what happens then may provide enough of a reinforcing push to focus better chances further south for Wednesday afternoon/overnight. With the increased cloud cover/precipitation potential...highs for Tue-Wed cool some...with Tuesday currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s, Wednesday in the mid-70s to lower-80s.

At this point, none of the days Monday-Wednesday are included in the SPC severe weather outlooks...though Monday/Day 2 is pretty close right along our NWrn edge. As mentioned above, there are some things working against Monday evening- overnight...and though models on Tuesday show the potential that shear may be a bit better, the overall upper level forcing isn't the best...and just too much uncertainty in the details for Wednesday. Not out of the question that some storms could be on the stronger side...but at least at this point it's not looking to be an organized severe weather threat.

Late Week Into Next Weekend...

Looking at Thursday on into next weekend...models showing the ridging trying to reamplify over the western CONUS, but between an area of low pressure over the Hudson Bay area and another working toward western Canada...additional systems moving through the pattern prevent much strengthening. Models show the upper level pattern across the area in varying degrees of northwesterly flow...and while the forecast has some scattered low-end (mainly 20 percent) chances, confidence in those are certainly not high at this point. Warmer temperatures also look to work their way back in...with highs potentially solidly back in the 90s by next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 725 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout at least the vast majority of the period, with the only possible "catches" being a small chance of briefly-reduced visibility in any possible downpours overnight as a band of showers/non- severe thunderstorms moves in from the west, and also possibly the arrival of MVFR ceiling extremely late in the period (right around 12Z). As for winds, there are various aspects of note, including quite-breezy speeds today, a pronounced directional shift overnight behind a cold front, and also two separate periods of moderately-strong low level wind shear/LLWS).

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation potential: While mid-high level clouds will gradually increase mainly this evening-overnight, ceiling should almost entirely remain VFR. However, there is at least some potential for MVFR ceiling to arrive right around the very end of the period right around 12Z (have only "hinted" at this with SCT015 for now). As for shower/thunderstorm potential, have maintained PROB30 for 03-07Z as at least a broken line of showers/weakening thunderstorms is expected to arrive from the west. If current trends remain consistent, later TAFs can target higher-confidence TEMPO/prevailing groups.

- Winds: - Surface winds: Starting off today, south-southeast winds will be quite breezy (especially this afternoon), with sustained speeds commonly around 20KT/gusts 25-30KT. Winds slacken this evening and gradually turn more easterly and eventually northerly behind a passing cold front (later TAFs should be able to add more temporal detail). However, confidence is currently fairly high that the "true" switch to steadier north-northeast winds will occur around 09Z KEAR/10Z KGRI...with gusts 20+KT thereafter.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): There are two distinct time frames/groups in these TAFs: 1) Through these next couple hours, have maintained an initial/ongoing LLWS for this morning, as southerly winds within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL continue around 40KT...resulting in around 30KT of shear magnitude between the surface and this level.

2) A second LLWS group has been maintained and slightly expanded in time (now spanning 03-07Z) as south-southeasterly winds again ramp up to around 40KT within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL...just ahead of the approaching cold front and during the same time that surface speeds slacken. Again, this will result in total shear magnitude around 30KT.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.