textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold tonight into Sunday morning. Wind chills in the -5 to -15 degree range for most of our forecast area (coldest in Nebraska)

- A bit warmer on Sunday, and significantly warmer Monday- Wednesday.

- Chance for any additional precipitation is low (10-15%) through this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Cold and saturated low levels resulted in over-producing snowfall for many areas this morning into early afternoon. This snow will continue to wane over the next couple hours, although some spots could pick up an additional dusting of snow. Unless something significantly changes, the Winter Weather Advisory will likely be allowed to expire at 3pm.

Skies gradually clear this evening into tonight, and winds go light/variable as the surface ridge moves through. Any fog is expected to remain to our west. The coldest temperatures will remain to our northeast, but many spots are still expected to dip into the low single digits or even slightly below zero. Wind chills this evening into tonight are expected to be in the -5 to -10 range.

Surface winds return to the south for Sunday as ridging nudges into the central Plains. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today...but with the steady wind, it'll still feel quite chilly.

Significantly warmer air is still on-tap as we head into the workweek. Widespread high temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s should melt any remaining snow/ice Monday...and some areas could even reach the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday.

A shortwave is expected to push a front through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There is only a low (10-15%) chance for light precipitation with this system, but it will result in a windier and cooler day on Thursday.

Beyond that, above-normal temperatures continue to be favored through next weekend and into the following week. Global ensembles show little, if any, signal for additional snow. At this point, the potential for a white Christmas is looking pretty bleak.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence that a great majority of the period will feature VFR ceiling/mainly clear skies (VFR visibility likely throughout), and also high confidence that southerly winds will reach fairly breezy levels from late Sunday morning onward (gusts 20-25KT). By far the main "question marks" are: 1) Could there be at least a few hours of MVFR ceiling between sunrise and early-afternoon (especially KEAR)?...2) Could low level wind shear (LLWS) become strong enough Sunday evening to warrant formal TAF inclusion (shear magnitude of 30+ KT)? More element- specific details follow.

- Ceiling uncertainties/concerns: Very high confidence that the first several and final several hours will be VFR with clear/mostly clear skies. However, there is a modest chance (especially at KEAR...a bit lesser at KGRI) that the expansive deck of lower clouds currently out over western/southwest Nebraska COULD bring a few to perhaps several hours of MVFR ceiling as they push back east mainly post-sunrise and into Sunday daytime. This is still uncertain enough that cannot justify introducing prevailing MVFR, but will at least "hint" at the potential with SCT/FEW lower cloud groups.

- Wind details: - Surface winds: The lightest winds of the period are right away these first several hours through around sunrise (mainly 6KT or less/variable direction). However, post-sunrise and through the day, southerly speeds will gradually ramp-up to fairly breezy...with the overall-strongest winds mainly 18-23Z (commonly sustained 15-20KT/gusts 20-25KT). These speeds will only back off slightly Sunday evening.

- Possible low level wind shear (LLWS)?: Although did not introduce to TAFs at this time given it is somewhat marginal and well-beyond the first 12 hours, later forecasts will need to consider a formal LLWS group for Sunday evening. Current model data suggests that southwesterly winds between 1-2K ft. AGL could ramp up to around 40KT, resulting in shear magnitude between the surface and this level approaching the TAF threshold of 30+KT.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.