textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning through 9 PM for most of our counties along and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border (RH 15-25%, WSW wind gusts 25-35 mph)

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening mainly within a corridor from Kearney and Holdrege and points to the northeast towards York and Fullerton. The main threats will be quarter size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph through around or just after sunset.

- Another round of thunderstorms Wednesday morning through 3 PM across south central Nebraska could also become severe with the primary threats being large hail and damaging winds. - Friday's storm system will likely send a cold front through early in the day resulting in morning highs, strong northerly winds, and colder temperatures than currently forecast (likely not a nice day). But this will probably keep the severe weather threat east of our forecast area.

- Strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night: Our entire forecast area will have strong north-northwest winds Friday into Friday night, with sustained speeds of at least 30 MPH and gusts of at least 40 MPH likely. (Not a nice day)

- Almost daily fire weather concerns Thurs onward: Each afternoon between Thursday and Monday, at least near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast develop within at least parts of our forecast area. A few days could also see fire weather conditions reach critical levels, including already on Thursday.

- Slightly sub-freezing temperatures possible this weekend: Some areas will fall below freezing already Saturday morning with most areas around or below freezing by Sunday morning. Did you already plant your tomatoes (better cover them).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Today...

The SPC expanded the marginal severe weather risk area into our forecast area along the nearly stationary boundary running from Kearney towards York. We have seen vertical development in the CU field around the Tri-Cities and are getting close to possible thunderstorm development. We could see a few isolated thunderstorms in this narrow frontal zone where moisture has been pooling allowing dewpoints to climb to around 50F. These will mainly be elevated thunderstorms taking advantage of the steep lapse rates, modest MUCAPE values to around 1000 J/KG, and very strong 0-6 km shear (65 kts). Quarter sized hail is the primary threat, but larger DCAPE values over 1200 J/KG suggest that strong wind gusts to 60 mph will also be possible with any of these thunderstorms.

Tonight...

We could see some scattered showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, but most areas will likely stay dry. However, things could get more interesting during the day on Wednesday.

Wednesday...

The last two runs (12Z and 18Z) of the RRFS have been indicating thunderstorm development across our western zones around dawn. These thunderstorms then track northeast through the morning, could impact the Tri-Cities, and exit our northeastern forecast area early Wednesday afternoon (likely before 3 PM). Although our forecast area is not currently outlooked for severe weather, it is possible that the severe weather threat area may need to be expanded to include some of our Nebraska counties. The main threat will again be hail and wind through early afternoon.

Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon along with cooler 60s behind the storm system may result in it feeling not as nice as one might expect.

Thursday...

This is a high confidence warm day with highs back into the 80s. It should be dry and we have some fire weather concerns, please see the fire weather section below.

Friday Through next Weekend...

A big open wave upper trough will race across the plains, but the timing is not favorable for our area to see much if any precipitation. An expected Friday morning frontal passage will likely result in falling temperatures on Friday. Our forecast is probably too warm and would not be surprised if see some areas falling into the 40s Friday afternoon. Even if it starts out nice Friday morning across our southeastern zones, it probably won't end very nice behind that cold front. Fire weather is again a concern. Please see the fire weather section below.

Monday and Tuesday...

The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States Trough. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The wind for the most part should remain out of the northeast at KEAR and KGRI through the evening with the strongest winds this afternoon. Eventually the wind will become northerly late tonight into Wednesday morning as a surface low tracks south of the area. Eventually we expect breezy northwesterly winds by Wednesday afternoon after the low pressure system passes by.

The primary aviation concern is the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly tonight into Wednesday morning with the most likely time frame being late Wednesday morning through around the noon hour as the surface low passes through. Will continue with the VFR conditions for now, but can not rule out periods of MVFR ceilings Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Red flag conditions are ongoing south of the nearly stationary boundary. This includes our Nebraska counties along the NE/KS border as well as all of our north central Kansas counties. Red flag conditions are expected to continue until around sunset. Higher dewpoints just north of the stationary boundary will limit the fire danger along the I80 (Tri-Cities) area.

THURSDAY: We will get a break in the fire weather conditions on Wednesday due to cooler weather and scattered showers. However, the heat, drier RH, and southerly winds will return on Thursday afternoon- early evening as high temperatures again jump into the 80s with southerly winds sustained around 20 MPH/gusting at least 25 MPH. Relative humidity will tank to around 10-20% in the afternoon. We may need fire weather headlines for Thursday afternoon, but wanted to get through today's Red Flag Warning first before issuing for Thursday.

FRIDAY-MONDAY: There is less certainty during this time frame and it will get cooler. The airmass behind Friday's system is dry and RH values will continue to be at least near critical. There could be enough wind to result in possible fire weather headlines during this period for some areas.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019.