textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of at least "near-critical" fire weather conditions is likely mainly in northern parts of our forecast area (CWA) Wednesday afternoon (see separate Fire Weather section below for more details).

- Wednesday brings one final day of near-record to record temperatures (highs low-mid 60s), before things at least return closer to "normal" January readings especially Friday- Sunday (highs mainly 30s-40s).

- Thursday-Friday bring two largely separate and STILL-HIGHLY- UNCERTAIN chances for snow to various parts of our CWA. Thursday's uncertain snow chances will depend fully on whether enough cooling can occur to change rain over to wet/slushy snow, while Friday's uncertain snow chances have more to with whether system track brings snow into our area or perhaps largely misses our CWA to the south-southeast.

- Mainly dry weather is expected Saturday-Tuesday, although Saturday bears watching for pesky snow showers on the backside of the departing upper trough.

- Although not as warm as currently/lately, Monday-Tuesday looks to bring a return of mild highs at least upper 40s-low 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 452 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, INCLUDING ANY CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES WORTH MENTIONING:

- Besides near-critical fire weather conditions now expected in our northern CWA for Wednesday afternoon (and introduced to our Hazardous Weather Outlook), BY FAR the main forecast change is that precipitation chances (PoPs) for both Thursday and to a lesser extent Friday have ramped up quite a bit (and likely not nearly enough for Thursday).

- That being said, even by Day 2-3 out-in-time standards, uncertainty is plenty high regarding "exactly" how snow potential will play out. Fortunately, whether or not snow does indeed become much of an issue, most of our CWA (especially the southeast 2/3rds) is now expected to see a decent winter rain (at least a few tenths of an inch...perhaps a half inch far southeast?)...which is much-needed and should soak in nicely given the unfrozen ground.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Tues. Jan. 13th): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM: Will state up front that spent more time than initially expected today dealing with very-short-term fire weather concerns. In short, temperatures (warmer) dewpoints/relative humidity (lower/drier) and winds (breezier) all at least slightly "overachieved" this afternoon...bringing widespread "near- critical" fire weather conditions to much of our CWA (especially the western half), and outright-critical conditions to mainly our extreme west-southwest counties (a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for a short while longer for Dawson/Gosper/Furnas/Phillips/Rooks.

Under pristinely clear skies, high temperatures slightly- exceeded expectations from our early-AM forecast, with most of the CWA topping out 58-64 degrees (Hastings broke its Jan. 6th record...see details in Climate section below). Aiding the very warm temperatures were breezy west-northwest winds (commonly sustained at least 15-20 MPH/gusting at least 20-30 MPH (and localized higher especially far west).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm broad west- northwesterly flow overhead, with the passage of a subtle shortwave currently departing from eastern NE into IA likely aiding in somewhat-enhancing today's breezy conditions.

- TONIGHT: This will be a tranquil/quiet night under continued clear/mostly clear skies. Once the enhanced afternoon winds subside, the evening-overnight will feature only light-but-steady southwesterly breezes mainly 5-10 MPH. Low temps are aimed only slightly below freezing (most areas 28-32, with any mid 20s most favored far west.

- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: If you are into weather more typical of fall than winter, then get out and enjoy this! Although high level cirrus clouds will be on a gradual increase (mainly in the afternoon), this will simply be one final very warm day (probably record breaking for Jan. 7th?), with less wind than today in MOST places. High temps were geared toward the warmer end of guidance, and were raised a good 2-4 degrees from previous forecast. This puts most of our CWA into the 61-64 range for afternoon highs. Winds will mainly be out of the south-southwest in most of our CWA, except for far northern counties where they will remain more westerly. Sustained speeds in most places 5-15 MPH/gusts 10-20 MPH. However, especially northern counties could see westerly gusts more so 20-25 MPH (driving near-critical fire weather concerns).

- WEDNESDAY NIGHT: The vast majority of our CWA will remain dry through sunrise Thursday with only increasing clouds as a well-defined upper wave/shortwave trough approaches from the Southern High Plains. However, very late in the night the leading edge of rain showers (non-freezing) could reach our far southern counties (mainly KS counties). Low temps aimed low-mid 30s most places except upper 30s far southeast.

- THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT (highly uncertain snow chance #1): In short, the aforementioned upper wave will track northeastward across the heart of the Central Plains, spreading an expansive shield of what will start out as much-needed "plain" rain northward across/into most of our CWA. The "million dollar question" is whether enough dynamic cooling can occur on the north side of this rain band to cause a potentially "sneaky" changeover to very wet/slushy snow during the afternoon-evening hours. Considering that our official forecast currently features NO true snow accumulation, model solutions such a the latest NAMNest (which tries to imply that at least 2-4 inches of wet snow could fall in a southwest-northeast stripe across the heart of our CWA) are admittedly a bit uncomfortable given this is only a few days away. No matter how much/how little precipitation changes to snow Thursday afternoon-evening, precipitation should largely depart by midnight, putting our area in a "lull"/break in between systems. Temperature-wise, although things could drop several degrees colder in the afternoon under the heaviest precip, at least for now we're calling for highs to reach the mid-upper 40s most areas. In summary: our forecast may have to drastically pivot toward higher snow potential fairly late in the game IF some model trends hold (at least have introduced potential to our HWO for now).

- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: While Thursday carries more precip type/changeover issues, Friday is more about WHETHER our CWA will see much precipitation at all as the primary, larger-scale upper trough tracks through the central United States. That being said, what does fall would more assuredly be in the form of snow. To make a long story short, the latest NAM/GFS keep the vast majority of our CWA (all but the far south) snow- free...while the ECMWF is a bit more aggressive in dropping up to a few inches of accumulation over the southeast 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA. Unlike Thursday, our official forecast does at least carry some minimal snow accumulation (highest over our KS zones). Plenty of time to sort things out, but this could range anywhere from a somewhat snowy afternoon-evening, to simply a chilly and snow-free time frame. High temps were nudged down into the upper 30s most areas (perhaps not low enough?).

- SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT: Our official forecast is mostly dry behind the departing large scale system, but both the ECMWF/GFS suggest that we'll need to be wary of some snow shower potential (probably somewhat convective in nature). High temps were also lowered a good 2-4 degrees here...now mainly mid-upper 30s.

- SUNDAY-TUESDAY: These three days appear mainly dry (especially Sunday- Monday) in the wake of the departing system, but continued weaker waves will pass by under northwesterly flow aloft. High temps are expected to rebound from mainly 40s Sunday...to more in the way of low 50s for Mon-Tues.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main aviation concern will be short window for low level wind shear (LLWS) at the terminals between about 10Z and 14Z. Overall speeds remain somewhat marginal at 40-45kt (at best) atop 6-8kt at the sfc, but there does appear to be enough of a directional component (SW at sfc beneath WNW aloft) to justify formal inclusion. Otherwise, VFR conditions are very likely (nearly cloud-free) with variable sfc winds between SW to WNW at relatively modest speeds 8-12kt. GRI could see some gusts around 20kt for a few hours around midday. Confidence: High.

Beyond the next 24hrs...there will be substantial incr in cloud cover after 06Z Thu, but appears any sub-VFR CIGs will hold off until around or after 18Z Thu.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 452 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

-- REGARDING LIKELY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Although meteorological fire weather parameters are not expected to "overachieve" as much as they just did today within our forecast area, we are now forecasting at least "near-critical conditions to develop Wednesday afternoon, primarily within some of our Nebraska counties north of I-80. Farther south across the majority of our area, fortunately winds are expected to be lighter and not meet criteria)

More specifically, counties north of I-80 are most favored to experience at least a few hours of both: 1) Relative humidity (RH) as low as 20-25 percent...2) west-southwest winds gusting at least 20-25 MPH.

-- NOTE: NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH.

CLIMATE

Issued at 452 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

- REGARDING RECORD WARM TEMP POTENTIAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY: Our final couple of days of anomalous warmth (today and Wednesday) have already/likely yet will feature more record high temperatures.

Below is where our latest forecast (or already-observed values) stand versus existing records at Grand Island and Hastings airports, the two NWS-maintained sites for which we issue official Record Event Reports (RERGRI/RERHSI).

Please note that * indicates that our latest forecast/observed value would tie or break (or already has) an existing daily record:

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES | Latest Forecast or Observed Grand Island, NE (GRI)

January 6: 64 in 1902 | Observed: 61 January 7: 63 in 2003, 1902 | Forecast: 64*

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Hastings, NE (HSI)

January 6: 59 in 1935 | Observed: 60* (new record) January 7: 63 in 2003 | Forecast: 63*

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.