textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- INCREDIBLE/HISTORIC "HEAT BLAST" today across our forecast area (CWA), with most places on track to realize high temps between 95-99 degrees. For many places (including Grand Island/Hastings), TEMPERATURES THIS HOT HAVE NEVER BEEN RECORDED DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH...AND ALSO AT LEAST MATCH THE HOTTEST READINGS ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL! (see separate Climate section below for more details).

- Unfortunately, critical/dangerous fire weather conditions are going hand in hand with today's heat, which in combination with concerns about an abrupt switch to strong northerly winds late tonight behind a cold front, will keep a Red Flag Warning going across our entire CWA through 4 AM Sunday morning.

- While none of the next 7 days appear to carry AS concerning of a fire weather "setup" as today, most days (including right away Sunday) will feature at least elevated-to-near critical fire weather concerns, and we'll have to monitor closely for at least localized critical conditions on some days (see separate Fire Weather section below for more details).

- While some spotty light rain cannot be ruled out Monday and then again later in the week, truly measurable/beneficial/widespread precipitation appears it will continue to evade us through the next 7 days, as we sink ever- deeper into a gradually worsening drought situation.

- Temperature-wise, fortunately nothing through the next week looks nearly as hot as today. However, things will lean on the seasonably-mild side of things for sure, with daily highs ranging from the 50s-80s (overall-warmest Wednesday).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 450 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- From a personal standpoint, this 19-year "veteran" of NWS Hastings continues to be in awe of today's historic/unseasonable very-early-spring heat! As already mentioned above (and more detail in the separate climate section below), it's one thing to shatter heat records for the CURRENT MONTH in the spring, but to also at least match heat records for the FOLLOWING MONTH is a true rarity.

- As for 7-day forecast changes versus our previous (early-AM) forecast issuance, honestly nothing notable to speak of. Day- to-day high/low temps were only nudged upward or downward a few degrees at most, and unfortunately the vast majority of the next week appears dry (only limited/spotty/light precip chances both Monday and again late in the week). Peeking slightly beyond the 7-day, there is at least limited hope that at least a slightly more active precipitation pattern could "kick in" around-and-beyond March 30th, also accompanied by some increase in low-level moisture and resultant increases in relative humidity/some decrease of the fire weather threat. We can only hope.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sun. March 28) - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM: Although today's record/historic heat is fascinating to witness from a purely meteorological perspective (high temps likely to end up 95-99 most areas), the combo of the heat and unusually low relative humidity (single digits nearly all areas), along with breezy (fortunately not OVERLY- windy) west- southwest winds, has unfortunately manifested in a dangerous fire weather setup. More fire weather details will from this point forward be discussed in the separate Fire Weather section below, but as of this writing our satellite data has detected a few smaller fire hotspots in Osborne/Hamilton counties, with both satellite/radar confirming a noticeable flare-up within the expansive Cottonwood Fire area along the Dawson/Lincoln County line.

In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm our region's considerable influence from an incredibly strong ridge of high pressure (around 589 decameter height at 500 millibars) spinning clockwise and centered over the AZ/NM/MX border area. Under only a very limited amount of passing thin/high cirrus clouds, our Central Plains region resides under west-northwesterly flow along the northeastern periphery of this ridge.

At the surface, impressive/deep diurnal mixing up to around 600 millibars has allowed winds to (if anything) turn a little more westerly (versus southerly) than expected, with sustained speeds commonly 15-20+ MPH/gusts at least 25-30 MPH this afternoon, only contributing to the big warm-up and fire weather concerns.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Fortunately, the aforementioned very deep mixing will really decrease by around/especially after 7 PM, allowing winds to decrease and turn more southerly (versus westerly) this evening. However, after sunset there will be a modest/secondary increase in south-southwesterly winds, as mixing into a strong low-level jet brings back some gusts of 20+ MPH.

However, the "big story" of the overnight hours arrives later (between midnight and sunrise Sunday), as a strong cold front steadily blasts southward through our CWA from north-to- south...entering our far northern counties 1-3 AM, and eventually clearing our far southern (KS) counties 5-7 AM. In its wake, all areas will experience at least a 2-3 hour "blast" of fairly strong northerly winds, commonly sustained 25-35 MPH and gusting at least 40-50 MPH. At least limited coverage of brief, marginally-severe gusts of 55-60 MPH is certainly possible, but confidence in meeting/exceeding official severe criteria of 58+MPH is currently too low to justify a formal High Wind Warning (this bears close watching though). This will be a dry frontal passage, and also bring steadily-cooler temps. Overnight low temps (likely not reached until 8-9 AM) are aimed low 40s northwest...to upper 40s-low 50s southeast.

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: Despite highs being 30-35 degrees COOLER THAN TODAY, they will still be above-normal for late March! If anything, these highs were nudged down very slightly, now aimed upper 50s-low 60s in Nebraska...to mainly mid-60s in Kansas. Wind-wise, the day will start out rather windy (especially in the morning), but then see a slow/gradual decreasing trend during the afternoon. For the day as a whole though, sustained northerly speeds at least 20-30 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH will be common (up to around 40 MPH in the morning).

Sunday evening-overnight, winds become light as they eventually trend more east-southeasterly in the presence of surface high pressure. Although clouds will be on the increase and some spotty light rain could start to enter our far southwestern CWA close to sunrise, this will almost surely be the overall- chilliest night of the next week, with lows bottoming out 30-35 most areas.

- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: Although most places will be lucky to pick up anything more than a hundredth or two, chances for at least spotty light rain showers have increased versus 24 hours ago as a weak/moisture starved shortwave zips through the Central Plains (for now measurable chances/PoPs are only 20-30% at most). Otherwise, the main story during the day will be gradually-increasing south- southeasterly breezes...overall strongest in our western half (west of Hwy 281), where sustained speeds 15-20 MPH/gusts 25-30 MPH will be most common. High temps upper 50s-low 60s most areas. Any spotty rain should depart by evening, with slightly- milder lows in the mid-upper 30s likely Monday night.

- TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: The forecast turns dry again as upper ridging over the southwestern U.S. again becomes an increasing influence, with high temps steadily trending upward...currently aimed mainly 70s Tuesday...then low-mid 80s most areas Wednesday (upper 80s far south-southwest). Overnight lows follow suit...holding up well into the 40s to perhaps low 50s.

- THURSDAY-SATURDAY: As usual, uncertainty grows in the "finer details" at this time range, but the main takeaways include a cool-down as the upper pattern "flattens" a bit and our next large-scale surface cold front passes southward through the Central Plains (the latest ECMWF/GFS both bring this front through on Thursday). For now, we have highs easing back in the 70s Thursday, then mainly 50s for Friday-Saturday. Our official forecast includes some spotty/low chances for precipitation as early as late Thurs night-Fri AM, the vast majority of which should fall as rain (if any occurs).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Despite a few clouds moving in tonight and staying around for parts of the day Sunday, ceilings are not expected to near MVFR levels. The primary aviation hazard will be some LLWS tonight ahead of a wind shift from a passing cold front between 8-9z. Between 4z and the frontal passage, a low-level southwesterly jet will bring between 40-50kts of LLWS to both KGRI and KEAR.

Surface winds this evening out of the southwest and ahead of the front will remain steady between 10-15kts with occasional gusts as high as 20-25kts. After the passage of the front (between 8-9z), surface wins will switch to a northerly wind direction with gustier winds picking up. Winds overnight and through the morning will blow between 20-30kts with gusts as high as 35-45kts. Winds will very gradually taper off across the Sunday afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 450 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Unfortunately, other than some very small/fleeting chances for a few rain showers here or there (mainly centered around Monday and then again later in the week), the vast majority of these next 7 days appear dry. Following is a day-by-day breakdown of fire weather concerns within our forecast area (CWA):

- REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT: A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for our entire forecast area (CWA) through 4 AM Sunday morning. For this afternoon- evening, this warning is driven by a combination of record- breaking heat (unprecedented in some places during March!), resultant unusually-low relative humidity, and breezy southwest winds gusting as high as 25-30 MPH. This afternoon, relative humidity (RH) is bottoming out at least as low as 5-10%. This evening (especially post-sunset), RH will slowly begin to rise, but is unlikely to get above 20-25% until around midnight.

Later tonight into early Sunday morning, the main concern (and the main reason the Red Flag Warning runs unusually-late into the night) will be an abrupt shift to moderately-strong north winds behind a southward-charging cold front. This front will arrive into our far northern counties between 12-2 AM, and eventually cross our southern/Kansas counties mainly 5-7 AM. Behind the front, at least a few hours of wind gusts to at least 40-50 MPH are likely (brief gusts 55+ MPH possible), which could obviously cause significant issues with any potential ongoing fires. Fortunately, RH will steadily rise/recover in the cooler temperatures behind the front...quickly increasing to 40-60% in its wake.

- SUNDAY: Despite afternoon high temperatures being at least 30-35 degrees COOLER than Saturday, they will still be above-average for late- March...most areas topping out between the upper 50s-mid 60s. Winds will also remain moderately-strong especially through the first half of the day, but fortunately will SLOWLY decrease through the afternoon as RH gradually falls. The net result is a solidly elevated-to-near-critical fire weather situation, featuring northerly wind gusts commonly 25-35 during the afternoon, but with RH currently forecast to drop no lower than 25-30 percent (slightly above official critical criteria).

At this time, we have decided against a formal Warning given the combination of: 1) RH falling slightly short of criteria...2) winds slowly decreasing with time. That being said, should later forecasts raise wind speeds and/or lower RH, arguments could certainly be made for a marginal Warning issuance...especially in our southern/Kansas counties.

- MONDAY: At this time, this looks like another elevated-to-near critical fire weather afternoon for most of our CWA. Temperatures will be similar to Sunday, but this time the breezy winds will be out of the south-southeast...overall-strongest in the western half of our CWA where gusts of 25-30 MPH are most likely. At this time, minimum afternoon RH is forecast to bottom out 22-30% in most places (slightly above critical criteria), but it could be a "close call" especially in our western-most Nebraska counties (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas), so this bears close watching.

- TUESDAY: This is also a day that bears watching, as although our current forecast does not call for critical conditions, this has "the looks" of a day that could trend worse as it gets closer in time, thanks to breezy southerly winds that will likely gust 20+ MPH. At least for now, minimum RH is forecast to drop no lower than 25-30% in most places.

- WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: As is typical this far out in time, confidence is lacking in the "finer details" regarding fire weather parameters. Wednesday bears watching for the warmest temperatures (highs in the 80s) and lowest RH of the week (10-20% most places), but at least for now winds appear relatively tame. Thursday-Friday then appear to turn windier out of the northeast behind a cold front, but there are questions regarding how low RH might get in a cooler airmass.

-- NOTE: - NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

CLIMATE

Issued at 450 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

** RECORD-BREAKING/HISTORIC HEAT FOR THIS EARLY IN THE CALENDAR YEAR OCCURRING TODAY! **

As expected, an incredible/historic blast of early-season heat has taken aim on our area today. While various parts of our forecast area (CWA) HAVE exceeded 90 degrees during March at some point during our roughly 110-130 years of local weather records, two sites that never have (until today) include our two primary Tri Cities weather stations...Grand Island and Hastings airports (the 2 NWS-maintained weather stations for which we issue official Record Event Reports/RERs). Not only have these stations now exceeded 90 degrees during the month of March for the first time, but they have also REACHED-OR-EXCEEDED TEMPERATURES NEVER BEFORE RECORDED DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL! See below for more details.

-- GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI...temperature records date to 1896) - PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD | NEW RECORD VALUE March 21 (Sat): 83 in 1988 | 98

- PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH: 90 degrees...occurred NINE times, most recently March 16, 2015

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF APRIL: 98 degrees...April 20, 1902

- PREVIOUS EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS: 95-98 degrees...98 on April 20, 1902 99 degrees......99 on May 14, 1941 and 102 on May 14, 2013 100 degrees.....102 on May 14, 2013

-- HASTINGS, NE (HSI...temperature records date back to 1907) - PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD | NEW RECORD VALUE March 21 (Sat): 87 in 1910 | 97

- PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH: 90 degrees...March 23, 1910

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF APRIL: 96 degrees...April 23, 1989

- PREVIOUS EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS: 96 degrees......96 on April 23, 1989 97-98 degrees...98 on May 6, 1916 99-100 degrees..100 on May 26, 2012

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ039>041-046>049- 060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ005>007-017>019.