textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- BY FAR the main shorter term issue is the widespread coverage of rain/thunderstorms (some severe) across nearly our entire forecast area (CWA) through this evening-overnight, with flooding/possibly flash flooding also a concern.

- The vast majority of our CWA is under Slight or Enhanced Risk of severe storms from SPC (Level 2/3 out of 5) through tonight, and a Flood Watch is in effect into Sunday morning for our entire CWA through 7 AM Sunday to account for ongoing/potential future flooding concerns (see separate HYDROLOGY section below for more info).

- While MOST of Sunday daytime should be dry/storm-free in the wake of widespread overnight convection, especially the 4-11 PM time frame could feature another round of at least spotty/isolated severe storm potential as another upper wave drops in from the north-northwest and interacts with a destabilizing/recovering airmass. While not expected to be as significant/widespread as the severe/heavy rain threat for this evening-overnight, SPC has nonetheless assigned either a Marginal/Slight Risk of severe (level 1 or 2) to our entire CWA

- Monday daytime looks mainly dry, but as early as Monday evening a parade of various/intermittent thunderstorm chances re-enter the picture through the upcoming week. While some severe risk could exist, none are truly "evident" at this time frame.

- Temperature-wise: a slightly coooler-than-normal regime will prevail through much of the next week, with daytime highs mainly in the mid 70s-low 80s, and overnight lows mainly in the 50s. There are signs of a warm-up by next weekend, and very preliminarily we have highs climbing back up mid 80s to around 90.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

-- QUICK UP FRONT "ADMIN NOTE": Given earlier and upcoming severe storm/hydro concerns, the remainder of this discussion will be HEAVILY weighted on just these next 24-30 hours or so.

-- SHORTER TERM FOCUS SOLELY ON THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS (through Sunday evening): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 PM: As was strongly suggested by higher-res models runs from 24 hours ago (even though some later runs incorrectly "backed off" somewhat), much of the daytime hours featured a slow-moving complex of elevated strong to marginally-severe storms, that initiated in a north-northwest to south-southeast axis across our western CWA earlier this morning, then gradually/slowly expanded east as the day went on, while mostly ending except for limited redevelopment along its western flank. This was a classic recipe for marginally-severe hail (up to quarter size), but more so localized heavy rain...with a roughly 20-30 mile stripe across the heart of our Nebraska CWA realizing a solid 1.50-3.50".

As of this writing, only weak storms are ongoing within some of our far northern/eastern counties, while slightly west of our CWA, robust and more surface-based severe storms have erupted over southwest NE/northwest KS, in a potent environment characterized by at least 1500-2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and around 50KT of effective shear. Meanwhile, our "silver lining" to having so much daytime convection is that most of our CWA is either relatively stable in the lower levels (or at least still plenty capped), with the vast majority of available CAPE of the elevated variety...largely muting any kind of shorter term threat for damaging winds/tornadoes...but keeping the same marginally-severe hail and heavy rain concerns in play.

Due to convection, quite a range in daytime high temps today, from only 60s north...to low-mid 80s south.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Leaning heavily on higher-res models (particularly HRRR/RAP), while there is little doubt that widespread rain/thunderstorms will overtake our entire CWA with many areas seeing 2+ rounds of storms or storm complexes (due to an upper disturbance impinging upon at least modest instability, increasing low level jet later tonight, etc.), there are still question marks about just HOW SEVERE our storms might be. In short, expect the MAJORITY of severe storm potential (especially damaging winds/possible QLCS tornadoes) to target counties along/especially south of the KS border...where the airmass is least contaminated by earlier-day convection. Especially between 7 PM-Midnight, a storm complex/possible mesoscale convective system (MCS) is most favored to track east-southeastward across our southern CWA, while more elevated activity develops across our north. Post- midnight, another complex of storms (probably at least slightly elevated?) could track southeastward through much of our CWA...evolving from separate severe storm development that will occur over northwest NE and the Panhandle.

Finally, between 5-7 AM Sunday, the back end of any widespread storms are expected to clear out of our far southern/southeast counties.

- MOST OF SUNDAY DAYTIME (through around 4 PM): In the wake of widespread overnight convection, MOST of the day is likely dry/thunderstorm free with an airmass slow to "recover". Surface winds will also turn northerly in response to the main surface low tracking to our south mainly across central KS. Afternoon high temps aimed from low-mid 70s north to low 80s south and far southwest.

- LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING (after 4/5 PM): Despite a less concerning setup than this evening-overnight, at least isolated to perhaps scattered storm development is likely as an upper disturbance dropping south into northern NE interacts with a (by-now) more destabilized airmass featuring at least 1000-2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and 40-50KT of deep layer shear. While coverage will likely be fairly limited, a few severe storms with mainly a hail/wind threat appear probable...likely most favoring our northern/western counties (versus our eastern/southern counties). However, this Sunday threat will be better analyzed once we get through tonight's round of more widepsread convection.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Showers and thunderstorms can be found over south central Nebraska, promoting MVFR to IFR ceilings at both terminals to begin the 00Z TAF period. A slightly more robust line of thunderstorms approaching KGID within the next hour or two is expected to bring gusty winds, small hail, and potentially some IFR visibility through the early evening, while briefly skimming by the vicinity of KEAR. Behind this line of storms, scattered showers will continue through the mid to late evening. Another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop after midnight and linger through early Sunday morning. Should these thunderstorms impact either terminal, periods of hail, strong winds, and IFR ceilings and visibility can be anticipated. Thunderstorms activity is expected to diminish by mid Sunday morning, though widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings and possibly some morning fog will linger through the early afternoon before lifting. Chances for more isolated showers and thunderstorms then return Sunday afternoon through the end of the TAF period.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Quick summary of last 12 hours: Although MOST of our forecast area (CWA) has received well under 0.50" of rain so far today, a concentrated 20-30 mile wide stripe of much higher amounts mainly 1.50-3.50" drenched parts of our Nebraska CWA mainly along a diagonal (northwest-southeast oriented )stripe centered from Pleasanton-Wood-River-Clay Center-Bruning (and including Hastings). Within this stripe, there was a fair amount of mainly shorter-term flooding of fields, some rural roads and small creeks.

- Looking ahead next 12-14 hours: Fortunately, the vast majority of the aforementioned stripe of heavy rain has been dry now for at least 2-4 hours, but with the potential for much of the CWA to see a widespread 1-3" yet this evening-overnight (ON TOP OF what has already fallen in some places), at least small portions of the CWA could end up with 4-6" 24-hour totals by sunrise Sunday. Due to the potential for at least localized/short-term flooding to occur almost ANYWHERE in our CWA through tonight, the Flood Watch that was initially issued yesterday has since been expanded to include our entire CWA...officially valid through 7 AM Sunday, by which time any overnight rain should have all-but-departed our CWA...with any ongoing flooding by then covered by potential Flood Advisories/Warnings.

CLIMATE

Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- New June 20th Record Rainfall For Hastings (HSI): With plenty of the calendar day yet to go (through Midnight CST), Hastings Municipal Airport (HSI) has ALREADY BROKEN its somewhat "weak" June 20th rainfall record with 1.58" (previous record was 1.46" in 1967).

As for Grand Island Airport, the ASOS there has officially measured 1.03" so far today...still shy of the June 20th record of 1.92" set in 2010. However, this could also easily be broken by the end of the calendar day.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049- 060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019.