textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread fog, potentially dense, likely (70-80%+) tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Persistent dreary conditions will keep a prolonged period of relatively low chances (20-50%) for off and on drizzle or light rain through midweek.

- A nice warmup (60s-70s highs) arrives for Thursday ahead of the next storm system that will bring chance for showers and (perhaps strong?) thunderstorms on Friday.

- Above to well-above normal temperatures are expected to dominate the first 10 days of March.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Been a rather dreary day out there thus far, and don't really see anything to change this over the next 24-36 hours. In fact, many areas probably won't see sunshine until some point Wednesday afternoon. Until then, abundant low level moisture trapped beneath a stout temperature inversion based around 800mb will keep low clouds and fog in place. Latest model guidance continues to suggest high probabilities for dense fog late this evening, and especially overnight into Tuesday morning. Fortunately, temperatures should remain above freezing for MOST of the area. The exception could be a narrow swath from around Lexington to Ord that briefly reaches 31-32F. Thus, not expecting the fog to cause slickness issues at this time. Strongly considered a relatively long-lead Dense Fog Advisory, but opted to hold off as sometimes these so-called "obvious" setups end up being more in the 1-2 mile range but with very low 100-200ft ceilings. Mixing remains very weak on Tuesday, so even if visibilities improve for the afternoon, doubt the low clouds will completely dissipate. As a result of the stubborn clouds, going highs for Tuesday in the upper 40s to lower 50s may be a few deg too warm. Could be looking at a repeat scenario of fairly widespread fog once again Tue eve/night into Wed AM.

Have continued a plethora of drizzle/rain chances in the short term as a broad upper trough sweeps W to E across the Central Plains, generally deamplifying as it does so. Off and on bouts of modest lift, combined with existing low level moisture AND brief bouts of mid level moisture, will probably be enough to squeeze out some showers and/or drizzle at just about any time through Wed AM. With that said, NOT expecting much in the way of appreciable amounts - likely a tenth of an inch, or less, for most locations. Perhaps the extreme NW (Ord area) and the far SE (Hebron area) could see a bit more...but probabilities for >0.1" of moisture for these areas is still only 20-40%.

By far, the nicest/warmest day of the week continues to look like it'll be Thursday. Much less cloud cover and moderate southerly breezes should boost highs well into the 60s, and likely even some mid 70s in our favored warm SW spots. Enough of the early week low level moisture looks to stick around to keep fire weather conditions below critical levels.

The warm-up will come ahead of our next upper level trough on Friday, which model guidance actually indicates could be fairly deep. Could see our rain chances increase as early as Thu eve/night within a zone of strong low level warm air and moisture advection that could support some elevated convection. Will also have another chance with the ejection of the main wave on Friday. The Friday potential will greatly depend on exact timing and track of pertinent low level features. General consensus right now is that much of the forecast area could get "dry-slotted" - with the primary low level convergence/moisture favoring strong-severe convection just to our E/SE, and colder "wrap-around" moisture further W/NW from the Panhandle into the Sandhills. Obviously, a shift in track N or S could change our forecast quite a bit - so just stay tuned for refinements throughout the week.

The late week trough looks to lack significant cold air behind it, so latest model blends and ensembles support a quick recovery for temperatures next weekend. Saturday may still be a bit "cool" in the 50s/60s, but expect warmer 60s/70s to return for Sunday if current trends hold.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dense fog likely Overnight-Tuesday morning with visibility of 1/2 mile or less.

Ceilings become IFR over the next couple of hours, falling to LIFR before midnight or potentially by the mid evening hours. LIFR ceilings persist through at least the mid-morning hours, but could persist into the early afternoon. A transition to IFR or MVFR is favored Tuesday afternoon, remaining lowest at KGRI.

Fog is expected to develop by the late evening hours. Fog will start out at MVFR-IFR, but fall below 1 mile visibility by the early morning hours on Tuesday. The densest fog, with visibilities of 1/4 to 1/2 mile are expected 12-15z. Some guidance shows the potential for dense fog to develop sooner, possibly before midnight, but confidence is not high enough to include this potential at this time. Fog will erode during the late morning to early afternoon hours, with visibilities improving to MVFR-VFR.

Additionally, light drizzle is possible overnight as the fog develops/lingers over the area. Temperatures are expected to stay above freezing, mitigating concerns for freezing fog. Light rain may develop near the end of the TAF period, though the coverage and duration is uncertain.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.