textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening, mainly for areas generally along and south of a line from Phillipsburg, Kansas to Geneva, Nebraska. Severe weather is unlikely, but a strong storm with small hail can't be ruled out in Mitchell County.

- Widespread showers and perhaps some weak thunderstorms will spread SW to NE Wednesday afternoon and esp. Wednesday evening. The greatest coverage/intensity of rain will occur Wednesday night into Thursday AM. Ensemble 25th to 75th percentile output continues to suggest most areas will receive between 0.25-0.75". Locally higher amounts (~90th percentile) around 1" will be possible.

- The first frost of the season is becoming increasingly likely for Friday night into Saturday morning, and typically-favored colder locations (W and N of the Tri-Cities) may even dip below freezing.

- Dry conditions and moderating temperatures from 60s into the 70s expected this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Almost the entire forecast area remains socked in with low clouds and chilly NNE breeze. As a result, temperatures have really struggled today, even in the far S/SE, with current readings only in the 50s. There remains a chance (20-50%) for some scattered showers/storms late this afternoon and evening, but as alluded to yesterday, the main focus has shifted to the S/SE closer to the surface front. There's a non-zero chance for a strong storm, or two, with small hail per latest SPC Day 1 Outlook...but think this is limited to Mitchell County, at best. Some forecast guidance attempts to clear us out quite a bit late this evening, then brings in a new batch of clouds right around dawn when lows are typically made...which makes for a tricky low temperature forecast. Will definitely be a chilly night/morning, but we don't completely decouple the winds, and the arrival of more clouds near dawn should preclude any significant frost concerns.

Cloudy and cool conditions persist all day Wednesday and Thursday, and eventually some areas of light to moderate rain (with embedded weak thunderstorms) will work through the area as well. General expectation is for scattered activity to gradually increase from SW to NE throughout the day on Wednesday, with perhaps some areas of drizzle to preclude the organized rain. So not a very pleasant day for outdoor activities, factoring in a steady/chilly NE breeze, as well. Appears the greatest coverage and intensity of rain will come Wednesday night into Thursday AM, before gradually tapering off Thursday afternoon and evening. Activity looks to be most stubborn to taper off Thursday afternoon across areas N of I-80. Latest EPS ensemble remains consistent in that the 25-75th percentile is largely in the 0.25-0.75" range for total rainfall. 90th percentile data, along with other deterministic output, suggests localized higher amounts around 1" will be possible - particularly with any weak convective elements.

Skies will clear out some Thursday night into Friday morning, but steady Nrly flow should preclude widespread frost concerns for one more night. The same can NOT be said for Friday night into Saturday AM. This period looks to be a classic fall-season setup for widespread frost - light winds or weak return flow, clear or mostly clear skies, recent rainfall (damp low levels), and seasonably strong high pressure. Not surprised to see guidance continue to trend colder with lows Sat AM, and the official blend now takes portions of the area to or below freezing. Suspect this will be most widespread across the central and western third of the CWA.

Forecast is pretty quiet beyond the Sat AM frost. Temperatures should warm nicely during the day Saturday into the 60s amidst plentiful sunshine, then further into the upper 60s to 70s on Sunday. Bottom line, this weekend looks like a nearly picture- perfect fall weekend. Fairly quiet weather and continued warming (perhaps back into the lower 80s for some?) is favored for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Rest of today: Ongoing MVFR CIGs should gradually lift and scatter through mid to late afternoon, with VFR conditions expected to return around 22Z to 00Z. Wind will remain out of the NNE at around 7-10kt. Confidence: High.

Tonight-Wed AM: Latest guidance brings a fair amount of clearing into the area this evening that persists through most of the overnight. The next round of stratus - generally of the MVFR variety, arrives around or within a couple hours of sunrise Wed AM. Have added some PROB30 for scattered light showers for the late morning hours. Wind will be NNE to NE at 8-13kt. Confidence: Medium to high.

Better chances for rain, and perhaps IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYs, arrive just beyond this valid period Wed afternoon, and continues through at least Thursday AM.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.