textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread near-critical fire weather conditions persist through around 5 PM this afternoon for mainly counties along/especially west of Highway 281, with outright-critical conditions ongoing in our five western-most counties...necessitating the issuance of a Red Flag Warning.

- Cooler temperatures and rain (and possibly snow) are expected beginning Thursday.

- Model differences continue with precip output and location.

UPDATE

Issued at 150 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

See newly-issued "Fire Weather" discussion at bottom of this product for updated details regarding slightly-worse-than- expected fire weather conditions for this afternoon...necessitating the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for our 5 western-most counties.

UPDATE

Issued at 343 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

No major changes were made to the forecast. Expecting temperatures today to warm up into the mid 50s to low 60s. Winds will increase today out of the west with gusts possibly reaching up to 20 to 25 mph across much of the area. These winds along with humidity values of 20% to 25% across mainly western portions of the area may result in a couple of hours of near critical to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon, especially from Dawson to Furnas County. Winds will weaken tonight and become more southwesterly with low temperatures in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Still expecting rain and possibly snow to begin on Thursday. Models are still different in regards to precipitation output. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to how much snow (and possibly none) may fall in any one location. There is high confidence that temperatures will get colder Thursday into Friday with precipitation falling (at least somewhere) in the forecast area. The precipitation appears to be in 2 rounds with the 2nd round coming in later Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Currently through tonight...

Been another quiet day across the region today, and while not as warm as Sunday, temps are once again above normal for this time of year. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data are showing generally zonal flow in place across most of the Plains, with a subtle embedded shortwave disturbance making its way across the central portions. Not seeing any precipitation associated with this wave, but has brought plenty of upper level cloud cover. At the surface, the pattern across the area is mainly driven by broad low pressure over the area, with that upper wave helping to push a weak trough axis/frontal boundary into the forecast area...bring a switch to more west-northwest winds, but speeds have topped out generally around 10 MPH or so. No big surprises with temps today, with the at times thicker cloud cover not doing us any favor...temps will end up topping out in the low- mid 50s east to low-mid 60s in the west. Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 30s to right around 40.

Quiet conditions continue on into this evening and overnight...with continued diminishing cloud cover from west to east. Winds remain west-northwesterly as we sit on the backside of the departing sfc low...speeds continue around 10 MPH. Lows are forecast to drop into the low-mid 30s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Overall, no significant changes to the forecast for Tue-Wed, which remains dry. Models showing generally zonal flow continuing in the upper levels across the region...though focus with time will be turning toward the West Coast and disturbances making their way inland.

Main concern on Tuesday lies with the potential of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions...mainly for portions of the area west of Highway 281. Winds during the day are expected to turn more westerly with time...as the area sits on the northern edge of broad sfc high pressure sliding across the Srn Plains. Not expecting a tight pressure gradient to drive strong winds, but with more sunshine expected, models continue to show the potential for gustier winds across the western half of the forecast area...gusts near 20- 25 MPH are not out of the question. Any time there are westerly winds and sun...there is a concern that forecast dewpoints are not low enough and temps not high enough, so trended the forecast a bit to account for that concern. Highs are forecast to once again climb into the mid 50s to low 60s. As a result, afternoon relative humidity values around 20-25 percent are possible, mainly for areas along/west of a Kearney NE to Osborne KS line. Did insert a mention of near-critical fire weather conditions into the HWO...the the SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook clips our west with the Elevated area.

For Wednesday, the surface pattern weakens a bit, with winds turning more southwesterly as troughing sets up over portions of the High Plains...bringing speeds around 10-15 MPH. This helps keep fire weather concerns at bay...as highs once again climb well into the 50s-low 60s...and more widespread relative humidity values below 30 percent are expected. Looks to be another day with plenty of sun, though some upper level clouds may be creeping their way in from the WSW later in the day. Overall another pretty nice day.

Thursday and Friday...

Biggest question mark of this 7-day forecast period lies on Thursday and Friday, with the potential for precipitation finally returning, including the chance for some snow. A couple of disturbances will be working their way toward the Central/Southern Plains...but will state upfront there are still plenty of differences between models with timing/strength/track...which could result in our area getting accumulating snow, or very little of anything.

The first disturbance to bring precipitation chances back to the area is working its way near the CA/AZ/Mex border on Wednesday, then taking a more NErly turn Wed night-Thursday onto the Plains as a larger, broader trough is digging into the Rockies. Models remain in pretty good agreement that this first round of precipitation chances would be primarily focused across OK into ESE KS...but it's not out of the question it could swing enough to at least clip SErn portions of our forecast area. Big question is just how far NW that track is/precip gets...thus chances during the day on Thursday remain mainly in the 20-30 percent range, with a small area of 40 percent chances in the far SE. Models remain in good agreement that the temp profile would largely keep this precip as rain.

Next question then lies with the next disturbance that will be quick on the heels of this first...plenty of questions remain with its evolution. The past few model runs have varied between keeping the system more open/progressive and developing a deeper, closed circulation...and would it stay south or cross far enough north to at least bring a few inches of snow. The GFS version of things (deterministic and ensembles) this morning stuck to its story of not bringing us a whole lot of precipitation...showing the closed low that develops sliding east across northern OK. The previous runs of the ECMWF had been further north/more optimistic about our area getting some snow...but the 12Z run trended closer to the GFS, trending things a bit to the south...lessening the potential. Looking that probabilities of at least 1 inch of snow...the ECMWF ensembles dropped from roughly 50-70 percent across most of the area last night to closer to 30-50 percent today (GFS didn't change much...still around 20-30 percent chances of at least 1 inch).

It's only Monday, so still plenty of time for models keep on this track or trend another way as we get closer...bottom line, stay tuned.

Next weekend...

The forecast dries back out for the upcoming weekend...with models currently showing upper level ridging at least briefing returning to the region. Hard to have a ton of confidence in forecast details that far out, when there are still plenty of questions about Thu-Fri. Following highs on Thursday in the 40s-50s and mainly 30s on Friday...weekend highs remain in the 30s for Saturday before reaching back into the 40s for Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: This is an exceptionally-high-confidence forecast regarding VFR ceiling/visibility (in fact, there will be hardly any clouds whatsoever). However, there are some modest wind concerns.

- Wind details: - Surface winds: The overall-breeziest conditions will be right away this afternoon through around 22Z, with westerly sustained speeds commonly sustained around 14KT/gusts around 20KT. Thereafter, speeds will gradually ease through sunset, with the remainder of the period featuring fairly uniform conditions with southwesterly breezes commonly 5-10KT.

- Marginal low level wind shear (LLWS) concerns: Anytime after roughly 04Z tonight...and lasting through much of the remainder of the period...both KGRI/KEAR will be prone to seeing "slightly-strong" LLWS magnitudes...with roughly 25KT of shear magnitude expected between the surface and the 1-2K ft. AGL layer. However, with latest model guidance showing better potential for more concerning (and TAF-worthy) LLWS magnitude of 30+KT focusing at least slightly off to the north, will refrain from any LLWS groups at this time (this will bear monitoring for later TAFs, however).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 151 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

-- UPDATE FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: Unfortunately, all meteorological fire weather parameters have trended slightly "worse" for this afternoon compared to earlier forecasts (temps slightly warmer, dewpoints/RH slightly lower, winds slightly stronger). As a result, a formal Red Flag Warning (RFW) has now been issued for the five western-most counties in the district (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas/Phillips/Rooks), where at least a few hours of outright-critical conditions will likely persist. Other than the issuance of this RFW, all other details issue earlier/found below remain largely valid.

- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 1201 PM: Widespread near-critical fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon within mainly the western half of our forecast area (CWA), due to the likelihood for at least 3 hours of overlap between: 1) Westerly winds gusting 20-30 MPH...2) Relative humidity (RH) dropping as low as 20-25 percent. For most counties along/east of Hwy 281, fire weather conditions shouldn't be quite as concerning, given slightly weaker wind and slightly higher RH (mainly bottoming out 25-30%).

However, of greatest concern are our far western counties (especially Dawson/Gosper/Furnas/Phillips/Rooks), where at least briefly-critical conditions could potentially be reached at times between 1-5 PM (these counties would be most prone to seeing RH drop to at-or-slightly below 20%). Will monitor conditions closely for the possible need for a short-fuse/formal Warning, but for now have tried to awareness of this "critical criteria close call" by issuing a Special Weather Statement (SPSGID).

-- NOTE: NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ060-072- 082. KS...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ005-017.