textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will be increasing this evening/tonight into at least the first half of the day on Saturday. The overall best chances remain across areas near and south of the NE/KS state line, where amounts exceeding 0.25-in are possible. Some uncertainty remains with just how far north measurable rain gets...some models show potential for at least 0.01-in near I-80.

- Dry conditions return to start the new week, with forecast highs currently peaking on Tuesday with upper 60s to low 70s. Tuesday will have the potential for gusty SW to W winds, and with the warmer temperatures/drier dewpoints...potential for near-critical to critical fire weather conditions will be a concern, especially for areas west of HWY 281.

- Additional low-end (20-30 percent) chances for precipitation return Tuesday evening through Friday, but overall confidence in any of those chances remains low due to model uncertainties. Cooler air eventually works its way in, with highs dropping into the 40s-50s for Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Currently...

Outside of a few scattered sprinkles sliding through southern portions of the forecast area early this morning, been another overall quiet day. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data continue to show zonal flow in place across the region. Broad ridging extends north through the Plains, set up between troughing along the East Coast and a low pressure system working its way into the Desert SW. Satellite imagery showing mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies currently, with increasing mid-upper level cloud cover inching its way closer toward the forecast area...a trend that will continue the rest of today. At the surface, we're sitting between high pressure over the Midwest and SErn CONUS and weak troughing along the High Plains. This has brought us SSWrly winds...and similar to yesterday, while most speeds will top out around 10-15 MPH, some gusts closer to 20 will be possible through the afternoon hours. Not looking at any surprises as far as temperatures with generally low 60s expected.

This evening through Saturday...

Overall, there hasn't been any significant changes in models today regarding the incoming precipitation chances...which remain liquid through entire event. The upper level troughing/low moving into the Desert SW this afternoon will continue its eastward trek through Saturday, with models in pretty good agreement showing the center of the 500mb low tracking along/just south of the OK/TX border. This will keep the bulk of heavier precipitation well to our south across the Srn Plains, but the main trough axis will be passing through the area, and models show the potential for a sharper/better swath of forcing tied closer to 700mb...driving our chances. Main question has been and still remains with just how far north more than a trace or few hundredths can get...agreement is still good that the better potential for 0.1 in or more lies closer to/south of the NE/KS state line. At the surface, the main low is also tracking well south of the forecast area, meaning winds will gradually turn more easterly- northerly with time...which can impact the northward extent of precipitation. Most models show overall not a lot going on through the evening hours...the better chances ramp up after midnight tonight, and especially closer to the 09-12Z. Those better chances look to continue roughly into midday-early afternoon, with things tapering off from west-east through the rest of the afternoon. Have some 20 percent chances lingering in the far SE into early evening, but several models have things dry by 00Z.

Not a ton of change with forecast rainfall totals for the event...with amounts around the 0.10-0.2 range along the state line, amounts in the 0.2-0.5 range across north central KS. Think that across our KS counties, most totals end up closer to that 0.2 number than 0.5...ensemble probabilities of 0.5 in or more are still mainly only in that 10-30 percent range. The NAM and ECMWF are on the more generous side with at least 0.01 in...EC ensemble has probabilities over 60 percent as far north as along I-80 (GFS ensemble is further south).

Confidence in high temperatures on Saturday remains on the low side...how the precipitation actually ends up evolving will play a large role. Expecting plenty of cloud cover across central and SE areas...but there will be the potential for some sun in the NW as the afternoon passes, allowing for some warming. Forecast highs range from the low 50s in the SE to near 60 in the NW.

Sunday and on...

Overall quiet conditions return to the forecast for the start of the new week, with models in good agreement showing broad upper level ridging moving in behind this Sat. system. Through the day on Sunday, winds turn back to the SSW, as the area is once again set up between departing sfc high pressure to the SE and a deepening trough axis over the High Plains...winds on Monday are a little more uncertain with models showing the potential for a weak boundary to move in. With a lack of colder air accompanying that Sat. system, forecast highs both Sunday and Monday bounce back into the low-mid 60s.

Tuesday is currently forecast to be the overall warmest day of the week, with highs near 70 to lower 70s across central/southern portions of the forecast area. It also has the potential to be a breezy/windy day...and fire weather is a concern. In the upper levels, models showing larger, broader troughing taking over the western CONUS, with the potential for a shortwave disturbance to swing NE out of the central Rockies into the Dakotas. Ahead of this wave, sfc low pressure deepens over the Nrn/Central High Plains...with a frontal boundary swinging through during the day. We'll see how models trend with these features and the timing, but current forecast has gusty SSW developing by midday, switching to the west through the afternoon. Dewpoints dropping into the 20s-low 30s and current forecast highs results in relative humidities dropping below 30 percent basically west of HWY 281, and near/below 20 percent west of HWY 183. Potential for near-critical/critical fire weather conditions...so did insert a mention into the HWO. Forecast has some low end precipitation chances (20 percent) mainly Tue evening/night as that shortwave swings through...focused across the northern half of the forecast area.

Zonal upper level flow returns to the region for the latter half of the week...potential remains for a couple of shortwave disturbances to pass through the region, bringing addition precip chances...but confidence in any of those details is low, so the chances remain low. Even though one boundary pushes through Tuesday...not a great push of colder air, so highs on Wednesday remain in the 60s. A reinforcing front looks to push through Thursday, ushering in colder air and another push of gusty winds, this time out of the NW. Highs for Thursday and Friday fall back more into the 40s-50s, still above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

For the first half of this TAF period, expecting overall quiet/VFR conditions. Will be seeing increasing cloud cover, though ceilings are expected to remain in the mid-levels. After midnight tonight, an upper level system sliding east to our south will bring increasing precipitation chances to the area. There continue to be some uncertainties with just how far north rain will get, and the terminals are in that area of higher uncertainty. At this point, have a VCSH mention starting at 09Z, with a PROB30 group from 12-18Z. Have VFR conditions remaining in the prevailing group, but not out of the question some MVFR ceilings could develop, and do have that mention in the PROB30 group. Winds the rest of today into the evening hours look to remain SSWrly, speeds this afternoon topping out around 15 MPH. Expecting more light/variable winds as we get into the early morning hours, continued that mention on through the end of this period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.