textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Expecting dry conditions for today, with the breezy winds turning more southeasterly. Gusts around 25-30 MPH will be possible. Temps look to be a touch cooler than Monday's low- mid 90s...today's highs are in the upper 80s-near 90.

- Potential for precipitation returns Wednesday afternoon on through Thursday...but overall chances have trended down compared to 24hrs ago. This is driven by the uncertainty in models with the northward progress of an upper level disturbance moving out of the Srn Plains. The best chances remain focused across the SSWrn half of the forecast area.

- Broad precipitation chances remain in the forecast Friday on into early next week...but again uncertainties with how the messy, blocked upper level pattern evolves keeps confidence on the low side.

UPDATE

Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Currently...

Outside of the extreme NNWrn fringes of the forecast area getting clipped by light precipitation...it's been a quiet evening-overnight period. Upper level forcing remains on the weak side...but activity continues, driven by convergence along the nose of a 40-45kt southerly low-level jet. Looking at the pattern as a whole across the CONUS, upper air and satellite data show plenty going on...the main/largest area of low pressure continues to sink south along the Pac NW coast, while other areas of low pressure are set up over the Four Corners region and near the east OK/TX border. A large area of high pressure is set up just off the coast of the Mid- Atlantic/Southeast...with a ridge axis extending northwestward through the Dakotas into central Canada. At the surface, winds remain southerly and at times gusty, with the main boundaries to the west and north of the forecast area...though outflow from those storms to our north are resulting in brief periods of variable directions.

Today through Wednesday....

Overall not much change in the forecast today and tonight...which remains dry. Models continue to show that main upper level low currently along the Pac NW continuing to sink south while moving inland...with troughing remaining draped through the Desert SW into TX. By 12Z Wednesday, models are in decent agreement showing the center of that upper low being roughly over the central NV/CA border. After breezy SSW winds on Monday, winds for today turn more to the southeast, thanks to deepening sfc low pressure over the Nrn Rockies and southward extending trough axis. Looks to be another breezy day today...with gusts around 25-30 MPH possible once again. Without the SWrly component to the winds/increased mixing into a slightly warmer airmass...today's highs area touch cooler, with mid upper 80s-near 90 (vs the low-mid 90s from Monday). Still well above the normal highs this time of year which are in the mid 70s-near 80.

More uncertainties in the forecast start to arise as we get into Wednesday...still with plenty of details to iron out with the upper air pattern and precipitation chances. Looking big picture...models are in generally decent agreement...showing the pattern across the CONUS becoming increasingly blocked with time. An upper level disturbance sinking southeast out of the Hudson Bay/Ontario region deepens the troughing across the eastern CONUS...not allowing for much movement of the ridge axis extending from the SErn CONUS into the Dakotas or the main low pressure system wobbling over the NV/CA border area. Forecast still has increasing precipitation chances creeping north into the forecast area Wed afternoon-night...though compared to 24hrs ago the northern extent of higher PoPs has been scaled back. Models continue to show a lobe of upper level shortwave energy trying to work its way north out of the western Srn Plains...but it struggles to make a lot progress because that ridging to its north. Now that this period is getting more into hi-res models timeframe...most are showing the coverage of any precipitation being pretty spotty...like isolated-scattered coverage, mainly focused from roughly the Tri-Cities and south. Thunderstorms will be possible...but models are in pretty good agreement showing both instability and deeper layer shear lacking values needed for severe weather to be much of a concern. Outside of the precipitation chances...expecting increasing cloud cover to also be working its way north...with winds remaining southeasterly, but speeds look to be a touch lower. Forecast highs remain in the mid- upper 80s.

Thursday and on...

Compared to 24hrs ago, the most notable change of the forecast is the downward trend in preciptiation chances for Thursday- Thursday night...which had widespread 60-80 percent chances, now sits more in the 30-50 percent range. These chances are still driven by that shortwave disturbance fighting against the ridging through the Dakotas and trying to work its way further north into the Central Plains. With time models show increasing differences with timing and coverage...that uncertainty driving down the overall chances. While the better chances are still across the SWrn half of the forecast area like Wednesday...unlike Wednesday, there are chances CWA-wide Thu-Thu night.

For Friday on through the start of the new week...hard to have much confidence in the forecast. Lot of uncertainties in the details with the evolution of the upper level pattern...as models show that large area of low pressure over the western CONUS filling/weakening, but with the eastern CONUS troughing not letting up, not much eastward push of things. Big question is how how the western troughing and central ridging shift location with time...and where any disturbances working their way through the flow ultimately track. Can't argue against the plentiful generally low (20-30 percent) chances for precipitation in the forecast Fri-Mon.

Though these precipitation chances includes thunderstorms...current thinking is that the weaker mid-upper level flow, weaker deeper layer shear and lack of notable instability working its way in keeps a threat of widespread severe weather on the low side. We'll see how things trend in the coming days.

As far as temperatures go...not looking at any notable swings in temperatures with a stopped up pattern, forecast highs Thu-Mon are mainly upper 70s-low 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

It's a warm afternoon with most areas currently experiencing temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Southerly winds are breezy, gusting 20-30mph. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon-evening hours along the surface trough in west/central Nebraska. Weak forcing combined with poor shear (20kts) should limit the potential strength of these storms despite CAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg. Still, a strong to marginally severe storm (60mph winds, small hail) could develop and impact areas mainly northwest of the Tri-Cities this evening. Storms will steadily weaken/dissipate after sunset as stability increases. Lows in the 50s are expected overnight with partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday...

Aloft, ridging gradually builds over the area on Tuesday as a trough/low moves into the west coast and becomes cutoff. Under the influence of ridging, highs climb into the mid to upper 80s. Another breezy day is expected, with southerly winds gusting 25-30 mph. Dry weather is forecast for Tuesday, under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The upper level pattern transitions to a messy omega blocking pattern (trough over west/east coasts, ridge over central U.S.) Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 80s, warmest across northern portions of the area. The first wave of energy moves into the Southern Plains on Wednesday, bringing the first of potentially several rounds of low confidence, scattered PoPs to the area. Models have at least some agreement that the first round of Pops (15-65%) lift into southwestern portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon/evening and continues into the overnight hours. Models vary how far north/east PoPs make it, but southwestern portions of have the overall highest chances. Wednesday night's band of showers/storms looks to stall out on Thursday, though model spread varies on where this sets up. At least a portion of the area could see scattered showers and storms persisting throughout the day. Highs on Thursday will depend on storms/cloud coverage, ranging from the 70s in rain to the 80s in dry/sunny locations.

Friday Onwards...

Beyond the overall atmospheric pattern/setup (Omega block persists), confidence remains low in the finer details, especially regarding PoPs. Still, models support/indicate that multiple disturbances are favored to move into the area throughout this time period. Model spread results in broad 25-45% PoPs across the area Friday onwards. As we get closer in time, the timing and location of these chances will become clearer. Highs will generally be near to above normal, in the 70s and 80s, though more/less rain may result in slightly cooler/warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Extremely-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout the period (only limited mid-high level clouds mainly at/above 10K ft. AGL). Also extremely high confidence in dry/thunderstorm-free conditions. That leaves winds as the main aviation issue, including rather breezy surface winds mainly this afternoon, along with a few more hours of slightly-strong low level wind shear (LLWS) early this morning.

- Surface winds: Direction-wise, no major swings anticipated, but there will be a shift from southerly through the morning...to more southeasterly this afternoon-evening. For much of the period sustained speeds will prevail at-or-below 12KT. However, stronger/breezy conditions will continue initially right away these first few hours, and then again especially this afternoon...with particularly 18-00Z featuring sustained speeds commonly 15-20+KT/gusts 24+KT (possibly even pushing 30KT especially at KEAR).

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): A round of slightly-strong LLWS in in progress, and will continue to carry in TAFs for a few more hours through 09Z KEAR/10Z KGRI...after which time the responsible low-level wind max will weaken and also shift north of the area. In the meantime, winds within the lowest 1,500 ft. AGL will continue averaging around 40KT from the south-southwest...resulting in roughly 30KT of LLWS magnitude.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.