textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- In terms of wintry precip chances, fire weather concerns, etc. (the "usual" higher impact threats this time of year), the 7-day remains remarkably quiet/inactive. In fact, there are still no official precip chances at all.

- The ONLY holiday travel weather concern at this time is the potential for fog development (perhaps dense on at least a localized basis) both Wednesday and Thursday...most favoring the late night-morning hours but possibly trying to linger into the afternoons for some. Counties along/east of Hwy 281 are MOST favored for potential fog issues.

- Temperature-wise: Although fog/low clouds are now expected to hold readings down from what could have been record territory for especially Thursday (Christmas), solidly above normal temps will nonetheless prevail through Saturday. However, we'll then flip a switch to noticeably chillier (but NOT unusually cold) readings Sunday-Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 416 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES TO 7-DAY FORECAST AS A WHOLE (IF ANY): - Although uncertainty in coverage/magnitude of visibility reductions remains fairly uncertain, we've officially introduced fog potential (patchy/areas) to our forecast for primarily counties along/east of Hwy 281 for parts of Wed- Thurs. These fog concerns have also been introduced to our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID).

- Certainly not "high impact", but some modest fluctuations continue in the temperature department. Most notably, forecast highs for Thursday (Christmas) have come down another 3-6 degrees most areas, and Sunday-Monday have also trended several degrees colder behind our next cold front (albeit not overly cold...just closer to late-December "normals" with highs 30s-low 40s).

-- BRIEF HIGHLIGHTS/UNCERTAINTIES OF DAYS 3-7 (Thursday-Monday): Beyond the already-mentioned fog concerns for Thursday, the main (and currently minor) issues are: 1) Could at least some sprinkles/flurries mention eventually be needed for mainly Saturday night? Measurable precip still looks very unlikely.

2) Just how much colder will Sunday be than Saturday (currently calling for about a 20-degree drop from 50s to 30s)?...and how quickly will we rebound early next week?

-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER TERM/FIRST 48 HOURS: - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 AM: As expected, it's been a very uneventful/dry and actually seasonably-mild night across our forecast area. In the big picture aloft, water vapor satellite imagery/short term model data confirm a large/scale broad ridge anchored over the south central U.S. and exerting a notably mild/inactive weather pattern across much of the nation (primary exception the West Coast states where heavy rain/flooding/snow threat is pronounced). Locally and back down at the surface, a fairly weak/innocuous cold front is in the process of gradually passing through our CWA from north-to-south., it's passage marked by a switch to north-northwesterly breezes mainly only 5-10 MPH. Under a mix of clear skies and passing/thin high cirrus clouds, low temps should eventually bottom out between 31-36 degrees most spots.

- TODAY: While remaining quiet/uneventful, the "big story" today will be a cool-down versus yesterday...albeit still well above normal. Overhead, we will continue to see varying degrees of passing high level cirrus...yielding predominantly partly cloudy skies. At the surface, modest breezes will transition from northerly to easterly, but with sustained speeds only roughly 10 MPH/occasional gusts perhaps to around 15 MPH. Temperature-wise, highs will be more uniform than yesterday across the CWA, with most places topping out between 53-59, and any spots possibly tagging 60 most probably in our KS counties. Interestingly, for southeast parts of our CWA today will only be slightly cooler than yesterday, but for our far western counties that soared into the upper 60s-low 70s yesterday...today will be at least 10-15 degrees cooler.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Through the first part of the night, zero issues expected with only continued (and likely increased) coverage of passing high level clouds as light easterly breezes turn more southerly with time. However, between midnight-sunrise a deck of shallow very low clouds is expected to gradually invade primarily the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA...expanding northward out of KS. While do not currently expect this cloud mass to be thick enough to produce drizzle, it's probably pretty likely that at least light fog will accompany its arrival..with perhaps pockets of thicker/denser for especially along its western fringes (currently expected to reside roughly near Hwy 281). While the HRRR visibility prog is typically-aggressive showing widespread dense fog issues (visibility 1/4 mile or less), SREF visibility probs are a bit more reserved. Fog is notoriously fickle even at shorter-term forecast windows, often ending up "worse" or "better" than expected. So while dense fog is certainly possible (perhaps Advisory-worthy), there is still too much uncertainty to "go there" yet...especially given that high clouds could play at least a small mitigating factor. For sure though, felt strongly about introducing fog potential to our basic forecast products and at least localized dense fog potential to our HWO.

Temperature-wise, lows are aimed 30-34 most places.

- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME (Christmas Eve): Of greatest concern are the morning hours, as roughly the eastern half of our CWA is likely to be blanketed under very low clouds and/or fog...some of which could be dense and eventually Advisory-worthy. However, compared to 24 hours ago there appears to be a bit more promise that light-but-steady breezes (roughly 10 MPH) will transition from southerly to more westerly as the day wears on, effectively "pushing out" the low clouds/fog from west-to-east. In fact the latest RAP low-level relative humidity plots and related HRRR visibility suggests that by Noon any fog/low clouds should be vacated from all but perhaps our far east...then further vacating early afternoon and leaving our entire area under overall-decreasing high level clouds.

The net result is a continued, trickier-than-average temperature forecast...as much will depend on how quickly/slowly the low level "grunge" manages to vacate. For sure, confidence is highest in cooler east/warmer west...but just how sharp will that gradient be in between? While 5+ degree errors are certainly on the table, for now have run with a multi-model blend to yield upper 50s far east...low-mid 60s central and mid- upper 60s (perhaps pushing 70?) far west. Per separate CLIMATE section below, at least near-record highs cannot be ruled out especially at Grand Island.

- WEDNESDAY NIGHT: As if Wednesday morning's fog potential/"severity" isn't tricky enough to pin down at this point, Wed night into Christmas morning (Thursday) brings another opportunity for widespread low clouds and (perhaps) Advisory-worthy low visibilities in dense fog. While the late night hours are just beyond higher- resolution visibility models (HRRR/RAP), a peek at the latest ECMWF visibility suggests that very low clouds/fog will gradually build back into at least the eastern half of our CWA from east-to-west...aided by light breezes turning more easterly with time. The bottom line is that it COULD be a very foggy start to Christmas morning (again, particularly east). Otherwise, low temps should be very similar to those of tonight (most areas bottoming out low 30s).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

As of 2PM CST, entire region remains devoid of significant cloud cover under shortwave ridging and dry SW to W low to mid level flow. The plentiful sunshine, combined with steady downsloping SW-W flow, is allowing temperatures to really spike this afternoon, particularly over extreme W portions of the area. In fact, latest temperatures have climbed into the lower 70s in these areas, and even warmer mid to upper 70s lie just a little further W. Fortunately, the warmth is coming without significant wind magnitude, so fire weather concerns remain pleasantly low. This is often not the case considering the magnitude of warmth for this time of year.

Quiet and dry weather will continue this evening and overnight, despite the passage of a moderately strong cold front. Winds will turn Nrly late tonight and bring in some noticeably cooler high temperatures for Tuesday. However, latest forecast of mid 50s to lower 60s is still a solid 15-20 degrees above normal, and once again, the brunt of the daytime hours should be void of significant wind (only 5-10 MPH).

As mentioned in previous discussions, still looking at the potential for low level moisture - either in the form of stratus or even fog - to push in from central/eastern KS at some point Christmas Eve into Christmas Day and "mess" with temperatures. FWIW, latest deterministic EC is a little more "veered" with the low level flow, which could spare at least some of the area (would mostly likely be W half) from the stratus/fog, though other guidance (such as, not surprisingly, the NAM) are further W and more widespread with the fog/stratus. These shallow low- level pockets of moisture are notoriously difficult to pin down, esp 2-3+ days out, as small changes in wind direction can significantly impact mixing potential at a time when the sun angle is at its lowest. There will also likely be a substantial temperature inversion between 1-3K ft AGL thanks to well- established elevated mixed layer (advected off the front range) that can further complicate the picture. So...we're looking at either most sunny skies and near-record warmth, or substantial low clouds and/or fog and cooler, but still above-average temps...or a combination of both depending on where you are from W to E in the region. Regardless, travel impacts should be minimal compared to what they CAN BE this time of year. FWIW, the official forecast/NBM have trended a few degrees cooler, which seems reasonable even IF the stratus/fog don't materialize given weak low level flow/mixing. So record warmth on Christmas appears increasingly less likely, but still quite mild.

Friday, though, continues to trend warmer. In fact, latest NBM jumped temps a solid 3-5 degrees, which now places it as the day with greatest chances for record warmth this week - in both low and high temps.

A stronger cold front is slated to arrive in latest guidance sometime this weekend - most likely later in the day Saturday or Saturday night. This front could bring a solid 20-25 degree drop in highs from Saturday to Sunday, which sounds "extreme", but really it's just bringing us back to "normal". Can't totally rule some very light precipitation along or behind the front, but latest 50 member EPS continues to indicate very low chances (10-20%) for anything measurable (>0.01"), so the forecast this far out officially remains dry. Both EPS and GEFS indicate another bump in temps in time for New Years, then another modest cool down for first few days of 2026. Signal for any sort of significant precip continues to be almost non-existent in at least the 7-10 day range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The primary concern is the potential for fog Wednesday morning. The highest potential for fog (per NBM and HREF) is along/east of Highway 281, therefore GRI has a better chance (50%) for IFR/LIFR conditions than at EAR (25%). Fog should move out by late Wednesday morning, but is anticipated to return Wednesday night (well outside of this TAF period).

Winds remain fairly light thorugh the period, turning from the east to south to southwest.

CLIMATE

Issued at 243 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

- REGARDING POSSIBLE RECORD WARM TEMPS DEC 24-26: Over the last few days, chances for potential record warmth at Grand Island/Hastings on Christmas Day have continued to fade due to the expectation of fog/low clouds keeping things cooler. However, at least near-record warmth still appears possible for Wed. Dec. 24th, and could be even more likely on Fri. Dec. 26th.

Below is where our latest forecast vs. existing records stand for Grand Island and Hastings airports, the two NWS-maintained sites for which we issue official Record Event Reports (RERGRI/RERHSI). Please note that * indicates that our latest forecast would tie or break an existing record:

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES | Latest Forecast Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 64 in 2021 | Forecast: 62 December 25: 62 in 1999,1963,1922 | Forecast: 54 December 26: 64 in 2005 | Forecast: 64* ---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 66 in 1933 | Forecast: 61 December 25: 62 in 1999,1950 | Forecast: 55 December 26: 65 in 2005 | Forecast: 65*

_________________________________________________________

- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | Latest Forecast

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 34 in 1936 | Forecast: 32 December 25: 34 in 1959 | Forecast: 32 December 26: 38 in 1931 | Forecast: 38* ---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 33 in 2005,1955 | Forecast: 32 December 25: 34 in 1922 | Forecast: 33 December 26: 38 in 1959 | Forecast: 38*

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.