textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Our ENTIRE forecast area (CWA) is now under an Extreme Heat Warning right on through until 10 PM Monday (this reflects an upgrade/replacement of the Heat Advisory for our Nebraska counties...our Kansas counties were already/earlier upgraded to a Warning valid through Monday).

- Although especially western/northwestern parts of our Nebraska CWA might fall to "officially" reach the 110+ Warning criteria on Monday, forecast values are deemed "plenty close enough" to justify this upgrade.

- Beyond Monday: although not truly "cool" by any means, more manageable/typical high temps mainly upper 80s-mid 90s look to prevail starting Tuesday...ending the need for any additional heat headlines.

- Turning to convective chances: SPC has maintained a Marginal- to- Slight Risk for a rogue strong to severe storm yet this evening for our northern CWA, but it's becoming increasingly apparent per radar/satellite trends that capping/very warm air aloft is "winning the battle) and odds increasingly-tilt toward us staying storm- free (too soon to guarantee just yet though).

- There will be a somewhat better chance for at least isolated/scattered storms Monday evening/overnight...a few of which could be strong to marginally-severe (especially in our far western counties where SPC highlights a Marginal Risk).

UPDATE

Issued at 848 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

-- Regarding the UPGRADE from Heat Advisory to Extreme Heat Warning (valid through 10 PM Monday) for our ENTIRE forecast area (CWA):

- Preceding day shift had already upgraded our KS counties to a Warning extending through Monday. However, after making some forecast updates to temperature/dewpoints (and resultant heat index) for Monday, it was decided to "play it safe/keep it simple" and also upgrade all of our Nebraska counties.

- Although most areas shouldn't see heat index get quite as bad as Saturday-Sunday, especially the southeast half of our CWA is again expected to see widespread peak heat index around 110 or slightly higher. Meanwhile, although parts of especially our far northern/west-central Nebraska CWA (mainly counties both along/west of Highway 281 and north of Highway 136) MIGHT fail to "officially" reach the 110+ heat index Warning criteria, we are forecasting widespread values of at least 105-109 in those "weaker" areas...which was deemed "plenty close enough" to justify Warning expansion...especially with Monday being the THIRD straight day of dangerous heat.

- Even if actual temperatures end up slightly "cooler" on Monday across especially our Nebraska counties due to ending up behind a weak cool front and more easterly breezes, often we see dewpoints/humidity pool and become particularly oppressive (often higher than forecast) just north of these fronts...essentially "compensating" for lower temperatures to drive still-oppressive heat index.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Conditions are heating up outside with temperatures in the 90s and triple digits and heat index values ranging from around 106 degrees and around 120 degrees. Temperatures are expected to continue to heat up this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 90s to around 105 degrees. A few isolated areas, mainly east of Highway 281, may experience heat index values between 115 and 120 degrees. The whole area is in an Extreme Heat Warning. Winds are expected to increase a bit out of the south this afternoon but will decrease this evening. An approaching boundary from the north this evening may result in showers and thunderstorms (primarily along and north of Highway 6 in Nebraska). The best chances (15% to 20%) will be north and west of the Tri-Cities area between 6 PM and 10 PM. Some of these storms have the potential to be strong to severe with wind gusts up to around 60 MPH being the main hazard. The storms are expected to weaken as they move southward. The Tri-Cities area may experience a few showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm around 10 to 11 PM. Low temperatures tonight will only cool to around the mid 70s across south central Nebraska and the upper 70s to low 80s in north central Kansas.

A north to northeast wind shift will begin moving into the area on Monday. This boundary does not appear like it will have much impact on temperatures, but models are showing an increase of moisture behind the boundary. Winds are expected to increase out of the northeast behind the boundary which may help to mix out some of the low-level moisture. There are uncertainties as to how much of an influence this boundary will have on temperatures, moisture, and cloud cover for Monday. There is higher confidence across north central Kansas for the combination of temperatures (around 100 to 106 degrees) and moisture to produce heat index values near or above 110 degrees for Monday. For this reason, the Heat Advisory across this area was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning which is in effect until 10 PM Monday. There is lower confidence (due to the above mentioned factors) across south central and central Nebraska so those areas were not upgraded at this time. Although, the Nebraska counties bordering Kansas have the highest likelihood of reaching Extreme Heat criteria on Monday and there is fairly high confidence (around 70%) that some areas in these counties may have heat index values near/around 110 degrees on Monday. Heat index values across our Nebraska counties are expected to range from around 101 in Ord to around 106 to 110 degrees across the far southern row of counties. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible (up to around a 50% chance) Monday evening and night as an upper disturbance moves overhead from the west. The highest chances will be across western portions of the area (mainly west of the Tri-Cities area). Some of these storms may become strong to marginally severe with wind gusts up to around 60 MPH being the main threat. The showers and storms will move eastward as the night continues.

Cooler temperatures are expected beginning Tuesday (highs in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s) as a surface high moves across the area. High temperatures in the 80s and 90s will continue through the end of the week. Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Various rain and storm chances will continue Tuesday through Thursday night as upper disturbances move over the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 848 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: With the possible exception of some "sneaky" light fog late tonight into Monday morning that might try to reduce visibility to mainly MVFR levels (not enough confidence in this to include prevailing sub-VFR in TAFs), this is otherwise a high- confidence VFR forecast with only varying degrees of passing higher-level cloud cover. There is also high confidence (at least 80-90%) chance that this will be a dry/thunderstorm-free period, as any convective development that has tried to occur so far this evening over central NE has really struggled to take off, and any showers/storms that might move in from the west Monday evening should hold off until after this valid period. See below for marginally-strong low level wind shear concerns.

- Winds: - Surface winds: While sustained speeds will remain tame (under 12KT at least the vast majority of the period), there will be directional shift from southerly/southeasterly this evening, to northerly-then- easterly during the day Monday behind a weak cool front. Especially during the afternoon, some gusts of 16+KT are likely.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): The likelihood of shear magnitude reaching 30+KT between the surface and the 1-2K ft. AGL layer has now increased enough for mainly the 06-10Z time frame that a formal LLWS group has been introduced to TAFs. During this time, southwesterly winds within the lowest 2K ft. AGL will accelerate to around 40KT...before weakening and turning more westerly/northerly beyond 10Z in response to the approaching cool front.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007- 017>019.