textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Forecast remains dry through tonight...expecting warmer temps today with highs in the 40s.

- Next chance for precip moves into the area for Saturday-Sat evening. Overall best chances remain north of I-80, but the heaviest amounts expected to focus NNE of the forecast area. Expecting light amounts...models keep probabilities of snow totals exceeding 1 inch below 30 percent for areas mainly along/north of HWY 92. Light precip will be possible all the way down to near the NE/KS state line

- Forecast dries out for Sunday through Wednesday, though subtle shortwave disturbances crossing somewhere over the Plains will continue...confidence in any details are not high. Sunday is back in the 20s-30s, with 50s forecast by Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Seeing quiet conditions across the region early this morning, with mostly clear to partly cloud skies as a patch of mainly upper level clouds works its way through. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show the region sitting under generally northwesterly flow... with broad troughing spread across most of the CONUS and areas of high pressure centered well off the west and southeastern coasts. There are a number of shortwave disturbances embedded in the larger scale flow...one of which will continue working across the Dakotas through today. While this disturbance is not expected to bring precipitation to the forecast area, it will help to push a surface frontal boundary through from west to east. Currently, winds across the area are west-southwesterly...but will be turning more northwesterly through the first half of the day behind this boundary. Late this morning through at least mid-afternoon, gusts near 20-25 MPH will be possible. Expecting at least partly cloudy skies through the day...and models continue to show a bump up in highs this afternoon. No notable changes were made to forecast highs today, which are mainly in the low-mid 40s...though spot in the SW could flirt with 50 degrees.

No changes to the dry forecast continuing on into this evening and tonight...with the next chances for precipitation moving into the area for Saturday. Overall, models not showing any significant changes for this forecast. The brunt of the lift associated with this wave still looking to slide east roughly along the NE/SD border...keeping the main axis of heavier precipitation off to our NNE, giving us more of a glancing blow shot of precip on the southern side of the wave. Main chances remain along/north of I-80, but was a little more generous with the coverage of slight/20 percent chances for precip, extending them further south closer to the NE/KS state line. Kept the main precip type as rain or snow depending on sfc temps...but it's not out of the question that at least a brief period of a light wintry mix could occur in any transition area. Forecast remains light as far as precip/snow amounts go...with continued support for ensemble data. Looking at probabilities of 1 inch or more of snow, the GFS ens. data remains higher than the ECMWF with those chances, and even it only has about a 10-30 percent chance roughly along/north of HWY 92. Winds switch back to the south tonight ahead of the next frontal boundary, which will slide through the area during the day on Saturday, ushering in another shot of northwesterly winds. Models not showing excessive winds from either direction...but speeds/gusts around 20 MPH are not out of the question through Saturday. This continues to look to be an overall minor event for our forecast area...with highs on Saturday behind the precip potentially climbing well into the 40s/near 50 (mainly west of HWY 281). Further east, some locations may struggle to get out of the 30s.

Looking out beyond Saturday, once this disturbance pushes east, the forecast remains dry Sunday through Wednesday...though confidence in this type of flow isn't exactly high end, as it can sometimes be tough to pin down subtle embedded disturbances. Highs on Sunday are cooler in the 20s-30s...with highs potentially climbing into the 50s area-wide by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Lingering cloud cover kept temperatures a bit on the cooler side today, although western areas have risen into the 40s as skies clear. Tonight, temperatures are expected to dip to around 20 degrees...pretty close to climatological normals for early December.

On Friday, the passage of a surface trough will switch winds to the northwest. Mid and high-level cloud cover is expected to increase through the day, but temperatures still are anticipated to reach the 40s for most of the area.

On Saturday, a weak shortwave moving through the northwesterly flow pattern will bring a chance for precipitation (mainly snow) to parts of the area. Global ensembles continue to indicate that the best potential for measurable snow will be to our east. Additionally, most of the snow would be falling during the daytime with temperatures in the 30s...not a great recipe for meaningful snow accumulation. As such, the probability for 1"+ has decreased to only 10-15% in areas north and east of Grand Island. A light dusting is the most likely outcome at this point, and many areas will miss out entirely.

Colder air will rush into the area behind this shortwave, resulting in noticably cooler day for Sunday. High temperatures are expected to remain below freezing for most of the area.

Fortunately (or unfortunately if you are a winter-lover), this cooldown won't last long. The deep trough over the eastern CONUS will shift eastward, and rising heights aloft will favor a warmup for Monday/Tuesday. Ensembles currently favor Tuesday to be the warmest day (upper 40s and 50s for most). Additional northwesterly-flow shortwaves are expected to push through the are for the middle to end of next week, but confidence in timing is quite low. This could bring rain/snow to parts of the area, but anything significant/impactful looks pretty unlikely.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 518 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather and VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Chances for precipitation associated with another upper level disturbance moving through the region look to hold off until just after this TAF period. Expecting variable cloud cover through the period...and though some lower level clouds around 3000-4000ft will be possible, ceilings are expected to remain in the mid-levels. Westerly winds this morning will be turning to the northwest through the morning hours with the passage of a surface frontal boundary...gusts near 20-25 MPH will be possible around midday into the afternoon hours. Speeds taper off this evening, with light/variable winds expected through the overnight hours.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.