textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Tuesday remains the overall warmest day of this 7-day forecast period, with highs climbing into the mid-upper 70s. Normal for this time of year are mainly in the low 40s.

- Expecting gusty winds to develop across the entire area for Tuesday, starting out the day from the SSW, turning more westerly with the passage of a frontal boundary. Drier air accompanying this boundary along with the warm temperatures is expected to result in widespread relative humidity values below 20 percent. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire forecast area from noon-8PM Tuesday.

- A couple of disturbances crossing the Plains will usher in notably colder temperatures (closer to normal) and chances for precipitation. Thursday brings the best chances of accumulating snow, especially across the northern half of the area, as well as gusty NW winds.

- Following highs on Wednesday in the 60s, these disturbances will drop highs for Thu-Fri back into the 30s-40s. A gradual rebound is expected into early next week, with 40s-50s back by Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Currently through tonight... The combination of light winds and well above normal temperatures is making for quite a nice start to the new work week. Upper air and satellite data showing a quiet pattern aloft across the region, with zonal flow/broad ridging dominating the central CONUS. Skies remain mostly clear to partly cloudy, with batches of upper level cirrus passing through the area. At the surface, we're sitting between areas of high pressure off to our north and east, with overall weak troughing along the High Plains. This is keeping winds light, around 5-10 MPH...with varying direction. No big surprises as far as temperatures go, with everyone topping out at least in the 60s this afternoon, with readings near 70 across western areas.

This evening and tonight, quiet conditions continue. Models are in good agreement showing the current zonal upper level flow turning more southwesterly with time...as upper level troughing currently over the West Coast pushes further inland. Expecting to see more cloud cover overnight, with very mild overnight lows tonight...mid-upper 30s NW to mid 40s in the SE (normal is mid teens-near 20). The threat of new record warm lows remains...see the Climate section below for more.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Overall dry conditions remain in the forecast through the day on Wednesday, with the main forecast concern during this period remaining with fire weather concerns on Tuesday afternoon. More details on fire weather specifics can be found in the Fire Weather section below.

Looking at the daytime/evening hours on Tuesday, there hasn't been any significant changes in the models. Broad view, models continue show a large area of upper level low pressure moving into the Pac NW and continued troughing along the West Coast...while a shortwave disturbance (currently over srn CA) will be swinging northeast out of the Nrn/Central Rockies onto the Nrn/Central Plains. Ahead of this approaching disturbance, sfc troughing/low pressure over the High Plains deepens, bringing more SSErly winds by 12Z Tuesday. Winds are expected to increase in speed through the day, turning more SWrly ahead of sfc trough axis during the morning, then switching to the west as that boundary pushes through the forecast area. Tuesday remains the overall warmest day of this 7-day forecast period, with increased mixing and downsloping westerly winds tapping into a warmer airmass...forecast highs remain in the mid 70s for most spots (a few spots reaching closer to 80 is not totally out of the question), with record high temperatures looking to be broken (see Climate section below). One question with temperatures lies with cloud cover, especially across the southern half of the forecast area, where models show the potential for more cloud cover. The increased mixing and push of drier air with the surface boundary is expected to bring a notable drop in dewpoints, with the current forecast calling for teens to push into western portions of the coverage area.

The lone mention of precipitation during this period remains in the Tuesday evening period...but chances remain low around 20 percent. Models, to varying degrees, continue to show the potential for at least spotty rain showers across ENErn portions of the forecast area late in the day/evening, driven by that sfc frontal boundary and main upper level trough axis swinging through. These look to be short-lived chances, with models showing the better precip potential focusing off to our NNE.

For the daytime hours on Wednesday, models show the area sitting under upper level shortwave riding, set up between Tuesday's departing shortwave disturbance and the next one that will be working its way into/through the Rockies. The wind forecast is a bit uncertain, as we'll be losing the influence of one area of sfc low pressure (keeping winds westerly) and gaining the influence of the next one deepening over the High Plains, which will be switching winds back to more of SSErly direction. Cooler, but still above normal temperatures are expected, with low-mid 60s forecast.

Thursday on into early next week...

Following hot-by-Feb-standards temps on Tuesday, a taste of winter returns for Thursday as snow returns to the forecast. This next upper level shortwave disturbance emerges out onto the High Plains late Wed night-Thu AM...taking a bit more of an easterly track across the Central Plains, any northward progress stopped up by Tuesday's system which models have sitting near the MN/Can border. Colder air is ushered in by the system's accompanying cold front, meaning the likely p-type is snow. The best chances continue to favor the northern half of the forecast area...and with this still a few days out and some model differences, NBM PoPs are pretty broad, with 50-60 percent chances through the Tri-Cities and 30 percent chances down into north central KS. Latest runs of GFS/EC deterministic and ensembles show a tighter gradient from north to south...something to be worked on in the coming days. Latest run of the GFS/EC trended the precip and snowfall amounts tied to the west- east orientated axis of stronger mid-upper level frontogenetical forcing a touch further north...both showing areas south of I-80 with less than 10-20 percent chance of seeing one inch or more of snow accumulation. Whether you get snow or not, Thursday looks to be another windy day, with northwesterly winds building across the area behind the cold front...gusts of at least 30-35 MPH will be possible.

Additional low-end chances for precip remain in the forecast for the end of the week Fri-Sat...but confidence in those chances are not high, as models show some notable differences with where other disturbances track and whether they bring precip at all to the forecast area. Upper level ridging and dry conditions return for the start of the new week Sun-Mon.

As far as temperatures go, following the 70s Tuesday and 60s Wednesday, the reinforcing cold front passing through looks to drop highs for Thursday and Friday back closer to normal in to the 30s-low 40s. Expecting a rebound as we get through the weekend/early next week, with highs by Monday back in the mid 40s-low 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are generally expected although there is a small chance (less than 20%) of low ceilings/low visibilities between 11z and 17z. Winds will remain out of the southeast at around 5 knots then will strength a little (near 10 knots) around 09z. Winds will become more southerly around 15z and will strengthen to around 15 knots at 18z out of the south southwest. Winds will become more southwesterly at 21z and will increase to around 20 knots sustained with higher gusts. Winds will become westerly to west northwest by 00z Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across the area Tuesday afternoon, with western portions expected to see the overall worst conditions.

Ahead of deepening surface low pressure over the High Plains, the day will start out with increasing south-southwesterly winds, with gusts near 25-30 MPH possible by late morning- midday. A surface frontal boundary will be gradually pushing east across the region during the afternoon hours, which will be ushering in a switch to more westerly winds. Out of either direction, gusts closer to and possibly exceeding 40 MPH will be possible through the afternoon hours. The overnight hours Tuesday night bring some relief, but still looks to be breezy out of the west across much of the area.

Expecting well above normal high temperatures tomorrow, with mid-upper 70s forecast (normal is mainly lower 40s), thanks to increasing mixing potential into a warmer airmass ahead of the sfc frontal boundary. This better mixing and a drier airmass working in from the west is expected to result in dewpoints falling into the teens and 20s...and combined with the forecast temps, relative humidity values look to bottom out anywhere from 10 to 25 percent during the afternoon hours. The overall lowest RH values of 10-15 percent are expected across areas mainly west of Highway 281.

Decision was made to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Tuesday...no changes made to the area (the entire forecast area) or time (noon-8PM). If looking at strict RFW criteria, far SE areas are marginal, with potential for more cloud cover and RH values currently forecast to bottom out in the low- mid 20 percent range (criteria is 20 percent or less)...but with the gusty winds expected and dry conditions in place, felt it was best to include all 30 of our counties.

Though cooler on Wednesday, dewpoints remain low, and afternoon relative humidity values may once again drop into the teens to near 20 percent. Winds are expected to be lighter, transitioning from westerly to start the day to more southerly by the end of the day...but near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible.

CLIMATE

Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Record high temperatures and warm low/min temperatures are likely to be approached/broken at various points Tuesday for both the Grand Island airport (records back to 1896) and Hastings airport (records back to 1908).

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 17: 72 in 2017 | 78

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Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 17: 74 in 1981 | 77

- RECORD WARM LOW/MIN TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 17: 41 in 1981 | 43

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Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 17: 37 in 1972 | 43

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Tuesday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ005>007- 017>019.