textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Hefty low-level jet driving a line of storms from northeastern KS into far northeast portions of our forecast area...this activity will continue to slide further northeast over the next hour or two.

- Increasingly southerly winds expected today, with gusts around 25-30 MPH expected...along with more widespread warmer temperatures. Highs in the mid 80s to upper 90s expected north to south...southern areas likely will have a least a period of heat index values near 100 degrees this afternoon.

- Later this afternoon-evening...an approaching cold front will drive increasing chances for thunderstorms...some of which may be strong to severe. SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area includes much of the forecast area...with the Slight Risk area including areas of Neb. east of HWY 281.

- Expecting a notably cooler day Tuesday in the 60s-70s, with more 70s-near 80 for Wednesday. Highs generally in the 70s-80s continue on through the rest of the week.

- An active upper level pattern will keep periodic chances for thunderstorms in the forecast through this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Currently...

Early this morning...upper air and satellite data showing more southwesterly flow has worked its way onto the Central Plains. This flow is set up between high pressure sitting over the eastern Srn Plains with ridging extending north roughly along the MO River, and low pressure spinning working east further into the Nrn Rockies. Radar and satellite imagery showing a swath of more agitated clouds and thunderstorm activity ramping up over the last hour or so from NErn KS into eastern NE, driven by warm air advection along a hefty low-level jet (SPC meso page showing around 45-50kts). Hi-res models in pretty good agreement showing that while over the next couple of hours our ENErn portions of the forecast area could be clipped by some of this activity...the main focus should continue to shift off to our east. Can't rule out some additional isolated activity moving in from the WSW through the rest of tonight, not likely to amount to a whole lot. At the surface, we're currently set up with east- southeasterly winds across the forecast area...between high pressure dominating much of the Midwest/western Great Lakes region and a frontal boundary extending across OK into western KS toward an area of low pressure over the WY/MT border area.

Today into tonight...

Overall there hasn't been any notable changes in models looking at this through tonight...still have the potential for additional thunderstorms to develop, and some could be strong- severe. Looking aloft, models are in good agreement showing that low pressure system continuing to work its way east along the MT/Canada border, getting into the ND/Can border later this afternoon/evening. In response, surface low pressure/troughing strengthens along the High Plains...pulling the surface boundary currently off to our SSW northward as a warm front through the first half of the day...ushering in a much warmer and gusty day for today. As that upper low moves into the ND area, it'll be pushing the next surface cold front back south toward the forecast area...looking to mainly work its way through later this afternoon-evening.

Ahead of that next cold front...southerly winds will be ramping up area-wide, gusts around 25-30 MPH are expected. Those gusts will linger longer into the afternoon/turning more SWrly across SErn portions of the area...with speeds tapering off further west as that front works its way in. Following quite a range in temperatures on Sunday with low 60s north to mid 80s south...highs today are more solidly int he mid 80s-low 90s across south central NE, with mid- upper 90s across north central KS. Heat index values near 100 are also possible for at least a brief time mid-late afternoon across SSErn portions of the area.

While chances for scattered weaker activity will be picking up earlier in the afternoon (some models even more in the late morning-midday time frame)...the better chances for more organized storms and potential for strong/severe storms along that boundary will come later in the afternoon-evening hours (mainly around/after 4PM). With models showing MUCAPE values potentially exceeding 2000 j/kg and deeper layer shear generally around 30-40kts...not a surprise that most of the forecast area is included the SPC Day 1 outlook...most areas in the Marginal Risk area, with portions of south central NE mainly east of HWY 281 included in the Slight Risk area (which continues on through eastern NE into IA). Large hail/damaging winds remain the main threats...an isolated tornado is not totally out of the question, though that better potential may be focused just off to our east.

Later in the evening on through the overnight hours tonight...the surface cold front is still working its way south through the forecast area...most models showing it just getting to our far SSE fringes by around 12Z Tuesday. The better upper level forcing will be continuing to push off to the east into the Great Lakes area with time...but will still have some convergence present along an increased LLJ, keeping storm chances around through the overnight hours...gradually focusing more south with time.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

The upper level pattern across the area through mid-week looks to remain generally west-southwesterly. The main system driving today/tonight's storm chances will have moved off well east/weakened....with models showing another system working south along the West Coast, while dampened high pressure is set up over the SErn CONUS. Periodic upper level disturbances will bring additional chances for storms to the forecast area...mainly during the later day-evening/overnight periods. How they ultimately pan out will also be dependent on the placement of the main surface frontal boundary...while models are in decent agreement generally-speaking, confidence in the exact details is lower the further out in time you go.

For the daytime hours Tuesday...the main frontal boundary looks to be south of the forecast area, bringing a notably cooler day. Expecting northeasterly winds diminishing in speed through the day...with forecast highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s. This frontal placement would also keep the better precip potential (including strong-severe storms) along and south of the NE/KS state line. SPC Day 2 outlook currently keeps the Marginal Risk area mainly along/south of I-70.

During the overnight hours Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday, models show the surface frontal boundary lifting back north across the area. This will spread increasing preciptiation chances back further north across the forecast area...but there are differences between models with just how widespread this activity ultimately is...thus forecast precipitation chances are pretty broad in nature. The northward lifting front ushers southerly winds back in (though not as strong as today's winds)...and highs climbing further into the 70s-near 80.

Thursday on...

Hard to have a ton of confidence in the finer details the further out in the forecast period you go...but models showing the potential for an active pattern continuing through the end of the week-upcoming weekend. That next upper level low over the West Coast keeps flow across the Central Plains more southwesterly in nature...with periodic shortwave disturbances driving additional storm chances. High temperatures through the latter portion of this forecast period look to mainly fluctuate between the 70s and 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Clouds have resulted in a very cool day for most of Nebraska, although mostly clear skies have allowed portions of northern Kansas to reach the 80s this afternoon. Tonight, another round of warm-air-advection showers/storms is expected. That said, CAMs generally show the highest coverage remaining to our east. At any rate, the threat for severe weather is low through tonight.

A few showers or weak thunderstorms remain possible during the morning and early afternoon on Monday. This does provide a little uncertainty on how warm we will actually get, but there should be enough clearing in the afternoon that most areas will reach the upper 80s to 90s, aided by fairly strong southwest winds (gusts 30-35 MPH). Southeastern areas could see heat index values approach/exceed 100 degrees briefly Monday afternoon before the front moves through.

This front will provide focus for storm development in the late afternoon and evening. Coverage and intensity is still a little uncertain, but at least a few strong to severe storms are possible in the 5PM to midnight timeframe. Roughly the southeastern half of the area is most favored for severe weather.

Storm intensity will wane Monday night, but at least a few showers and storms will persist into Tuesday. The post-frontal airmass will be noticably cooler on Tuesday (highs in the upper 60s and low 70s, depending on cloud cover). Thunderstorms become likely again Tuesday night, especially in southeastern parts of the area, as southwesterly flow aloft interacts with the stalled midlevel boundary across KS and southeastern Neb.

This pattern then repeats itself through the rest of the workweek. Overall, temperatures remain on the cooler side, although temperatures could approach climatological normals (upper 70s to low 80s) on Friday. Daily chances for rain and thunderstorms continue, although the overall severe threat is fairly low. Global ensembles favor the southeastern half of the area with highest chance (>50%) for over 1.00" of rain through the week. Localized amounts of 2-3" are possible, although it is possible that the heaviest rain totals are realized to our east.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period, however low stratus could encroach on KGRI/KEAR before 13Z. A TEMPO group was added for KEAR as periods of MVFR ceilings around 1500ft are possible between 8Z and 12Z. There is a chance that the coverage of the low stratus could move over KGRI, however the confidence is low so it was not included in the TEMPO. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected to begin the TAF period as a low- level jet begins to ramp up, with speeds reaching 45kt within the lowest 2000ft AGL. The LLWS is expected to persist until around 16Z before subsiding. Breezy winds strengthen throughout the day, peaking during the mid-to- late afternoon with gusts as high as 28kts at KGRI and 30kts at KEAR. Winds shift throughout the day starting South- Southeasterly and shifting Southwesterly. Winds weaken and become light and variable after sunset. Off and on precipitation and storm chances begin around 16Z and continue until around midnight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.