textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A few isolated to scattered non-severe storms will occasionally pass through mainly eastern and southeast portions of the area tonight into Thursday morning. The best potential will peak thursday morning.

- An even more organized cluster of potentially strong to severe storms, will pass from northwest to southeast across the area between mainly 7PM and 1AM Thursday night.

- The strongest storms Thursday evening/night may bring damaging wind gusts up to 60-70MPH, hail up to the size of quarters and locally heavy rainfall.

- The next chance of precipitation (15-50%) does not come until Tuesday night.

- Highs over the weekend will mainly range the 80s, with a mini warm up heading into the start of next week (upper 80s and 90s).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Following the widespread thunder showers this morning, precipitation chances have generally plummeted for the rest of the day (only 10- 30%; concentrated towards the far eastern and southern portions of the area). The coverage of any overnight to Friday morning non- severe storm activity, will primarily impact the eastern to southeast half of the area (mainly areas east/southeast of the Tri- Cities). The HRRR and NAMNEST high-resolution models have recently began to show increasing potential for a broader coverage of these shower and weak thunderstorms during the the Thursday AM period, mainly across eastern Nebraska and central and eastern Kansas. Though precipitation totals are not expected to surpass this morning's amounts, locally up to just over 1" of rainfall may be possible in places through the morning. The better storm potential, however, will not come until the evening hours.

A mid-to-upper level shortwave trough ejecting out from the northern Rockies tomorrow will bring some mid-level vorticity and cold air advection to the region, helping to increase instability and buoyancy (2,000-3,500J/kg of MUCAPE) across the area. In addition, surface pressure falls ahead of the shortwave disturbance, will help organize an around 1006mb surface cyclone across north central Nebraska and central South Dakota. As this cyclone strengthens across the afternoon and evening hours, a surface cold front will undergoing frontogenesis across central Nebraska/Kansas. This feature will likely serve as the primary mechanism for evening thunderstorm development, likely driving a line of convection across a majority of the area from northwest to southeast between mainly 7PM and 1AM. Given the high instability (>2,000J/kg of CAPE), steepening low-level lapse rates (up to 8-9C/km) and 25-40kts of bulk shear (EBWD); the potential for severe weather will remain. The main concern would be for strong to damaging wind gusts as high as 60-70MPH. Though not the primary concern, a few of the stronger storms may still be able to grow tall enough to form hail stones up to the size of quarters. The Storm Prediction Center includes the full area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) with most of central Nebraska areas near and north of I-80 included in a slight risk (level 2 of 5).

Beyond the chance for precipitation Thursday, winds out of the southeast may become breezy at times, gusting as high as 20-30MPH during the afternoon hours. Highs, despite the mostly cloudy to overcast skies will still be expected to raise as high as the upper 80s and 90s. Following the exit of the storms Thursday night, the forecast remains dry through at least Monday (20-50% precipitation chance returns Tuesday night). Southwest U.S. ridging across the weekend will help fend off most precipitation chances as the jet stream is shoved further northward. Breezy conditions will be expected to return Friday afternoon (northerly gusts as high as 25- 35MPH) as the surface low pull east and away. lighter winds over the weekend will come as higher pressure resettles back into region. Temperatures behind the front Friday and Saturday should drop back down to the 80s. Warming temperatures in response to clearing skies, will warm temperatures back up to the upper 80s to mid 90s for the start off next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to last through 6z tonight with a few low ceilings and possibly slight reductions in visibilities possible from scattered overnight to Thursday morning storms (20-30% chances; fairly scattered storm coverage). Outside of a passing storm or two, lower ceilings just north of the forecast area between 12-15z (IFR to low-end MVFR classifications) will be possible to near the fringes of the area. Confidence is not high enough to prevail with the storms or sub-VFR ceilings at this time. Winds will maintain a southeasterly direction through the period with gusts blowing no higher than 15-20kts though the rest of the day and night (gusts 20-25kts possible starting late Thursday morning.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.