textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning in effect until 8am.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 70s.

- Next chance for rain (15-35%) arrives Monday afternoon/evening along a cold front with more widespread chances (40-60%) Monday night-Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Under mostly clear skies and light winds, temperatures have dropped into the 30s this morning. Temperatures will bottom out in the upper 20s for northwestern portions of the area in the Freeze Warning, and around freezing for areas in the Frost Advisory (both headlines in effect until 8am). Aloft the area is under northerly flow with a ridge centered over the Rockies and a trough over the Midwest. After a cold start to the day, temperatures will quickly climb into the 60s to low 70s. Sunny skies and light winds (gusts 20mph or less) make for a very pleasant day overall. Seasonable/near normal temperatures are expected overnight with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

A weak cold front from a passing disturbance pushes a cold front through the area Sunday morning as winds shift to the north behind the front. While the forecast remains dry, it's possible that a few scattered develop behind the frontal passage Sunday morning along/north of an Ord-Osceola line. Otherwise another pleasant day is expected with highs in the 70s to around 80 in north central Kansas.

Seasonably warm weather continues on Monday with highs in the 70s and 80s. A cold front moves into the area Monday afternoon, bringing the next chance for rain. Scattered showers and storms are possible (15-35%) along this front, with more widespread chances (40-60%) arriving behind the front Monday night. The second half of the forecast remains on track as widespread cloud coverage and precipitation chances keep temperatures seasonably cool on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures climb back towards/above normal by the end of the forecast period as northwesterly flow builds over the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 434 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No truly "major" changes to speak of, with the Key Messages above giving a decent overview of the highlights.

- That being said, on the more minor side of things, high temps have trended down very slightly for Sunday...but a bit farther out they have trended a good 2-5 degrees cooler than previous forecast for Wed-Thurs, as the mid-week cool down looks a little more pronounced than before.

- All in all though, nothing all that unusual about the next week for early May, as on positive notes we: 1) appear to be lacking in severe thunderstorm concerns (will need to keep an eye on Monday though)...2) Do not currently foresee any critical fire weather issues. On a negative note, unfortunately rainfall does not look abundant, but hopefully at least SOME places can pick up at least 0.25" with the intermittent chances mainly Mon-Wed, and the lack of "higher end heat" should also help keep soil moisture evaporation to a relative minimum.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Fri. May 8): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 330 PM: Overall, certainly no big surprises today. As expected, isolated to scattered light showers and a FEW weak thunderstorms have materialized over our KS counties, while north of the state line a smattering of sprinkles have developed at least on radar (most of which probably not reaching the ground given the dry low- levels).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm a highly amplified pattern over the U.S., with our Central Plains region residing under north-northwesterly flow...directed between a pronounced high pressure ridge extending over several northwestern states, and an expansive trough dominated much of the Midwest/northeast states and anchored by a closed low over southeast Canada. On the smaller scale, a compact shortwave trough is currently diving due southward out of SD into NE, and is helping provide lift to get our spotty showers/sprinkles going.

At the surface, a modest pressure gradient emanating southward from a roughly 1020 millibar high centered over eastern SD, along with diurnal/daytime mixing, is promoting somewhat-breezy north winds across our area...commonly sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts 20+ MPH. High temperatures are on track to top out between 60-66 degrees across the vast majority of our CWA.

- THIS EVENING (pre-midnight): Through at least nightfall (9-10 PM), isolated-to-scattered rain showers (and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms) will continue in our south (especially KS), while mainly spotty sprinkles will continue northward into our Nebraska counties...driven by a combination of weak instability (CAPE up to a few hundred J/kg) and upper forcing/lift from the aforementioned wave diving directly southward through our area. Have extended these fairly minor precip chances through at least 10 PM especially near/south of the KS border, with some models suggesting they may need extended a touch longer and also expanded a bit farther north. However, no matter what, confidence is fairly high that even our extreme southern zones should be rain-free no later than 11pm-Midnight, with skies then clearing efficiently from north-to-south.

- LATE TONIGHT (post-midnight): As surface high pressure settles directly over the heart of our CWA in the presence of clear skies and light/variable direction breezes (mainly under 5 MPH), the stage will be set for a fairly ideal radiational cooling situation. As a result, slightly "undercut" most available/guidance for overnight lows, with most places forecast to bottom out between 30-34 degrees, and some upper 20s most favored mainly in our far north-northwest (mainly north of a Lexington-Greeley line). There is high confidence that the vast majority of our CWA will see fairly widespread frost development. As for frost/freeze "headlines", due in part to neighboring WFO's North Platte/Goodland opting to "join the headline game" now that it's May, decided to do BOTH a Freeze Warning for roughly the northwest 1/3 of our CWA (counties most favored to see low temps ~ 30 degrees or slightly colder), while issuing another Frost Advisory for the remainder of our CWA (very-slightly-freezing low temps as cold as 30-32 possible in a few spots, but with most places likely dropping no colder than 32-36 and making frost the MAIN concern instead of a "true" freeze".

- SATURDAY DAYTIME: Following the seasonably-chilly/frosty start, a fairly pleasant and all-but-guaranteed dry day is on tap, with temperatures warming rather steadily in response to the onset of steady (but not very strong) west-southwesterly breezes (generally sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 MPH during the afternoon). High temps were changed very little and are aimed roughly 10 degrees warmer than today (most places topping out 70-74 degrees).

- SATURDAY NIGHT: Continued dry weather and clear/mostly clear skies, with by far the main difference versus tonight being milder low temperatures. For much of the night, southerly to westerly breezes will average 5-15 MPH, which along with the warmer low- level airmass will keep lows 10+ degrees warmer than tonight...with most places aimed 40-46 degrees.

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: The vast majority of our CWA likely stays dry through these 24 hours, but especially our extreme northern CWA could be brushed by a few sprinkles/light showers as a weak disturbance passes by in northwesterly flow aloft (right now we have some 20% chances in our far north during the evening-overnight). During the daytime, a weak cold front will pass southward through our CWA, turning winds northerly-to-easterly at around 10 MPH with slightly higher gusts. Temperature-wise, highs did come down very slightly from previous forecast (1-2 degrees) due in part to these weak front, but we're still calling for a range from low-mid 70s north...to upper 70s-low 80s south (most 80+ readings in our KS zones).

- MONDAY-TUESDAY: Our weather looks to turn a bit more active again, as increased forcing/upper lift from disturbances dropping down from the north and also riding in from the west (primary upper lows centered over the Great Lakes region and also southern CA/AZ region) will team up to drive a somewhat stronger surface cold front southward through our region...sparking increased chances for at least isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. There is still some model discrepancy on exactly WHEN this front passes through (will it be afternoon or evening?), but there are hints that at least modest instability will build ahead of it, with early projections from NAM/GFS suggesting anywhere from 500-1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE getting into especially the southern 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA. This could bring a threat for at least a few strong (MAYBE marginally severe?) storms to mainly our southern-southeast CWA Monday afternoon and/or evening, so this will bear watching and it will be interesting to see if SPC opts to assign a formal Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) on tonight's upcoming Day 3 outlook. At any rate, once we get past Monday evening, cooler/more stable air enters our area, keeping any precip into Tuesday as more benign rain/rain showers. Temperature-wise, we're currently calling for a 15-20 degree drop in high temps between Monday (most areas mid 70s-low 80s) and Tuesday (near-60). IF skies happen to clear enough (still very much a question mark), perhaps we have some frost concerns for Tuesday night especially in our far western/northern counties.

- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: In the big picture aloft, we look to reside under mainly northwesterly flow aloft, and thus subject to occasional weak waves and at least spotty rain shower/weak thunderstorm potential. Officially, our only mentionable (20+%) rain chances are right away Wednesday as the main larger scale trough axis swings through. However, despite our going dry forecast for Thurs-Fri, the latest ECMWF/GFS suggests it's no guarantee to stay this way. Temperature-wise, a steady warm-up is currently projected over the course of these 3 days...with highs rising from upper 50s/near-60 on Wednesday...to mid 60s-low 70s Thursday...to mid-upper 70s Friday. Like Tues night-Wed AM, Wed night-Thurs AM currently bear watching for possible frost or marginal freeze possibilities.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light and variable winds become West-Southwesterly this afternoon. Winds shift to the south-southwest around sunset and increase to around 10kts. Around midnight LLWS is favored to develop just above the surface. The duration of LLWS looks to be fairly short as a cold front moves through the area and shifts winds to the north and decreases winds.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ062>064- 073>077-082>087. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060-061-072. KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007- 017>019.