textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperature-wise: while the "extreme" warmth of the last few days is behind us, a persistently above normal regime appears to persist for at least another 7-10 days, with daily highs mainly in the 50s/60s, and overnight lows mainly 20s/30s.

- At least for a few more days, this warmth will contribute to a continued risk for localized ice jam flooding along the Platte/Loup River systems in the northern half of our forecast area (CWA)...see separate HYDROLOGY section below for more.

- Precipitation-wise: Frankly, the news is not good as a mainly dry regime will persist through at least the next 9-10 days (the rain chances we're currently carrying for mainly Fri night-Saturday have trended down again...now no higher than 20-30% as primary models continue to agree the main shield of precip will focus at least slightly south of our CWA).

- On a positive note, besides the aforementioned ice jam flooding risk, there are no "obvious" hazardous weather concerns in our going 7-day forecast at this time (including any particularly windy days, critical fire weather concerns, etc.).

UPDATE

Issued at 436 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES WITHIN THE 7-DAY FORECAST AS A WHOLE: 1) Rain potential for especially Fri night-Saturday has again trended down (after briefly spiking up somewhat with yesterday afternoon's "forecast package". The latest deterministic runs of the ECMWF/GFS focus the vast majority of precip potential at least 50-100 miles south of our CWA altogether, and even the more generous 00Z ECMWF ensemble only suggests perhaps a few hundredths of an inch in our Nebraska counties and perhaps only up to around 0.10" in our KS zones. Accordingly, official precip chances (PoPs) are now down to no higher than 20-30% in most of our Nebraska counties, and no higher than 30-40% in our KS zones.

2) Not a huge change, but high temps have increased slightly (and perhaps not enough)? for especially the Saturday-Monday time frame, as at least upper 50s-low 60s could make a return already by Saturday if the aforementioned system remains to our south (currently official forecast for Saturday has come up slightly, but it still only low-mid 50s at best).

-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS: - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 4 AM: Although breezy for sure, if anything northerly winds associated with the overnight passage of a well-defined cold front "underachieved" a bit versus expectations from 12-24 hours, ago, with most places registering peak gusts no higher than ~ 35 MPH. Nonetheless, our entire CWA is no firmly behind this front, with most places reporting sustained north winds 10-20 MPH/gusts up to around 25 MPH. Mid-high level clouds have been on the increase over our northern areas, while skies over many of our southern counties remain clear at this time. Overnight low temps are on track to bottom out low-mid 30s most places.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm broad quasi-zonal (west-east) flow over the Central Plains, with the aforementioned surface front driven southward in response to a shortwave trough zipping eastward across the Northern Plains/southern Canada toward the Great Lakes.

- TODAY (much cooler but STILL 10+ degrees above normal): Under continued, benign quasi-zonal flow aloft, the main story today will be MUCH cooler temperatures, with afternoon highs aimed within a few degrees either side of 50 most areas...a good 25-30 degrees cooler than yesterday! Nonetheless, these readings will be 10+ degrees above mid-February normals. The secondary story will be continued breezy north winds, especially this morning, with sustained speeds around 15 MPH/gusts 20-25 MPH continuing. However, as a surface high pressure (ridge) axis currently centered over western SD noses down more so into northern Nebraska this afternoon, our wind speeds will gradually ease up (especially after 3 PM), with sustained speeds no more than 5-10 MPH by late afternoon/early evening. As for cloud cover, skies will generally average partly cloudy, but leaning more toward mostly cloudy this morning (mainly north), and more mostly sunny for the afternoon. We'll need to keep a wary eye on an extensive deck of low stratus currently sinking southward across eastern SD as some model low-level relative humidity guidance (such as from RAP) suggest this cloud mass could at least flirt with invading our far northern/northeast counties for a few hours around mid-day, but it appears more likely that they'd primarily affect north central/northeast Nebraska (slightly outside our CWA).

- TONIGHT (overall-coolest of next several): Although not an ideal radiational cooling setup (mainly due to at least partly cloudy skies of the mid-high level variety, this nonetheless looks to be the chilliest of the next several nights. At the surface, a ridge axis will slide south- southeastward through our CWA over the course of the night, keeping winds very light (mainly under 5 MPH) as direction gradually transitions from northerly this evening to southerly by sunrise Wednesday. Low temps are aimed mid 20s most places, but if skies stay clearer then wouldn't be surprised to see greater coverage of low 20s and perhaps even some upper teens (especially in typical colder spots such as Ord).

- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME (similar temperatures, opposite wind direction): High confidence in a continued dry forecast, although a weak disturbance passing through in west-northwesterly flow aloft will keep plenty of mid-high level cloud cover streaming overhead (skies at least partly cloudy). At the surface, the ridge axis from Tues night will gradually depart eastward, allowing southerly breezes to gradually pick up as the day wears on. Speeds will not be overly-strong, but will be a bit breezy especially over the western half of our CWA (sustained around 15 MPH/gusts 20-25 MPH). Temperature-wise, highs appear remarkably similar to today's readings, with most places low 50s (probably fewer places than today that don't manage to escape the upper 40s).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Short Term Period (This Afternoon Though Wednesday)...

The Red Flag Warning in effect for Valley, Greeley, Sherman and Howard counties in Nebraska as well as Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell counties in Kansas, will remain in effect until 6PM this afternoon. Record high temperatures today have helped dry conditions considerably, allowing relative humidity values to drop as low as 10- 25% across the area. Wind gusts approaching 25MPH across the Nebraska Sandhills as well as across portions of north central Kansas this afternoon, provoke these areas of critical fire weather conditions. Near-critical fire weather conditions additionally lie for the rest of the area outside of the warning.

Do not get use to this record heat today as temperatures will drop around 20-25 degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday (from the 70s down to the upper 40s to low 50s). A (dry) cold front will lead the charge later this evening, dropping southeast and initiating this cool down. Winds behind the front will flip northward with a short window of overnight gusts as high as 40-45MPH possible (40-70% chance). The timing of the front is expected to pass between 9PM and 1AM. Higher surface pressure infiltrating behind this front will help nudge these winds back some by the second half of the day Tuesday. Steady to occasionally light winds (gusts <20 MPH) should remain in place through Wednesday with the northerly directions swiveling around to the south overnight Tuesday.

The forecast through Wednesday remains dry as the current pattern aloft (mid-to-upper levels) resembles zonal flow (west to east), generally known to bring along quieter weather along with it. The latest 12z grand ensemble shows general agreement in the persistence of this flat to weak ridging pattern that should continue to stomp out any precipitation chances until at least the end of the weak, as well as keep around the mild temperatures.

Long Term Period (Thursday Through next Monday)...

The forecast becomes slightly more complex as we heads towards the end of the week. For starters, temperatures may rise some Thursday (mid 50s to low 60s) and cool some Saturday (mid 40s to low 50s), though highs across the end of the week and the weekend should mainly hang in and around this sweet spot (mid 40s to low 60s).

The next chance for precipitation (chances as high as 35-70%) lies Friday and Saturday. Our PoPs have been the most notable forecast element to change in the long-term period this forecast cycle. This jump up in confidence has been mainly guided by the increase in individual ECMWF/GFS ensemble members that project at least some amount of precipitation Friday or Saturday. Despite the increase in confidence, these higher than usual PoPs do not necessarily reflect more meaningful precipitation accumulations. In fact, our forecast amounts remain somewhat bleak (<0.5"). We would not be surprised to see these PoPs and amounts tick down some in time. The latest deterministic guidance has not very keen on favoring a system track that would benefit the area precipitation wise (system track projected too far south and east of the local area).

Synoptically speaking, a trough is favored by both ensembles (GFS/ECMWF) to pass through the south central and central U.S. close to Saturday. This trough will likely spinup a weak surface cyclone across Oklahoma sometime Friday. At this point in time, the primarily difference between the two main long-range global model outputs is with their placement of the system's outer rain bands. As of now, the ECMWF (European) has been more generous than the GFS (American) at lifting moisture up into the Region. There is still a concern that a further southern track of this trough/disturbance may hinder the area's ability to see any meaningful precipitation. Long story short, there are still several factors yet to be worked out.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions anticipated through the period.

Lots of mid/upper level clouds can be streaming across the local area this morning with plenty of additional cloud cover upstream of the local area. At the surface...somewhat gusty (to near 20kts) north winds remain behind a cold front that crossed the terminals early this morning...with winds expected to relax and become light and variable this evening as an area of surface high pressure slides south across the local area. Southerly return flow on the backside of this area of high pressure will return to the area on Wednesday, but with a relatively weak pressure gradient, winds 10 KTS or less are expected during the late morning hours tomorrow. SCT-BKN mid/upper level cloud cover is expected to persist through the end of the period.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 436 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- LOCALIZED ICE JAM POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE/LOUP RIVER SYSTEMS:

Although the "peak" of recent warmth is behind us, a prolonged stretch of solidly above normal temperatures will persist for many days to come in central/south central NE (highs mainly 50s/60s...overnight lows only slightly below freezing at most). As a result, continued ice melt/movement will persist for at least a few more days along the Platte/Loup River systems in the northern half of our forecast area. Until the ice sufficiently melts and/or "flushes out" downstream/east of our forecast area, localized ice jams cannot be ruled out...with the main window of continued concern expected to be over the next 48 hours.

As of this writing, the only real "ground truth" we have of minor/rural ice jam flooding involves a jam observed over the last few days just southeast of Grand Island (likely currently centered between South Locust St. and Highway 34), and a Flood Advisory continues in this area. Elsewhere, river gages and some observed reports indicate at least some ice movement along the Loup River near Genoa, and also near St. Paul along both the North/Middle Loup. Over the last 24 hours, we have essentially declared an "all clear" for any ice issues on the Platte River upstream (west) of the Grand Island area.

In addition to any ongoing and potentially future Advisories/Warnings that will be reserved for confirmed flooding that could cause at least minor issues to property, roads, etc., we will also likely for at least a few more days continue highlighting any of our Nebraska counties still at risk for localized ice jam flooding in a Special Weather Statement (SPSGID).

PLEASE NOTE: Unlike "traditional" warm season flooding from heavy rain that is typically easier to detect via radar rainfall estimation and the network of river gages, ice jam flooding is typically difficult to detect proactively/remotely (unless it occurs very near a gauge). Thus we are ESPECIALLY RELIANT on emergency management, spotters etc. to keep us informed of any ongoing ice jam flooding issues.

CLIMATE

Issued at 436 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- RECAP OF FEB. 9TH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:

As was all but "guaranteed" to occur, Monday indeed featured record-setting high temperatures for Feb. 9th in the Tri Cities. Details follow for Grand Island/Hastings airports (the two NWS-maintained sensors for which we issue official Record Event Reports/RERs).

- PREVIOUS RECORD HIGHS | NEW FEB. 9TH RECORDS SET MONDAY Grand Island, NE (GRI) Feb. 9: 70 in 1996 | 77 --------------- Hastings, NE (HSI) Feb. 9: 70 in 1954 | 75

-- RELATED SIDE NOTES: - Grand Island (Central Nebraska Regional Airport): Not only was 77 degrees a new Feb. 9th record, but it was THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD THAT EARLY IN A YEAR! The previous-earliest occurrence of 77 degrees occurred one day later back on Feb. 10, 2017.

- Hastings (Municipal Airport): Not only was 75 degrees a new Feb. 9th record, but it was the SECOND-WARMEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD THAT EARLY IN A YEAR. The only warmer + earlier reading was 76 degrees on Jan. 11, 1990.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.