textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs between Friday and Monday will gradually raise a few degrees each day back to the upper 80s and 90s.

- The next chance of precipitation (20-60%; increasing towards the north) falls Tuesday night for central Nebraska as a cold front look possible to sweep through the area.

- Highs may take a 10-15 degree drop heading into Tuesday/Wednesday (upper 70s to low 90s). Another mini warm up is favored to follow into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Following the passage of last nights cold front, a "cooler" and drier airmass has settled into the area today. A 1008mb surface low centered across Iowa this afternoon has helped steer the breezy northerly winds for today (gusts as high as 30-45MPH). These gusty winds will gradually lighten through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Aloft, a shortwave trough (the disturbance responsible for developing last nights storms) continues to shift east and away. This will leave space for a southwest U.S. ridge to grow and expand up into the Central Plains area over the weekend. Rising pressure from this building ridge will help maintain dry conditions as subsidence works to keep the skies mostly clear. In addition, a mini warm up will transpire from Friday to Monday as sunny skies and southerly turning surface winds return (a mix of warm air advection and diurnal heating). Highs between today and Monday will gradually increase a few degrees each day, residing mostly in the 90s by Monday. A few far southeast Nebraska and western Kansas locations could even near the low triple digits (30- 60% chance).

The next major pattern change will come Tuesday as a northwest U.S. trough is favored to push into the central and northern Plains. The next chance for precipitation in the forecast will come with this pattern shift Tuesday night as a cold front looks to pass out ahead of the upper-level disturbance. Our chances for precipitation for Tuesday night has increased slightly for our Nebraska areas (20%-40% for areas just north of the state line and up to 50-65% for locations north of I-80). This slight increase in confidence comes as ensemble model guidance begins to narrows down on the timing of the arrival of the aforementioned trough. Given that this event falls outside of the range for higher- resolution short-term model guidance, we are not able to provide many additional details in regard to specifics (coverage or intensity) at this time. This event, however, will be the areas next best potential for scattered storms.

Model confidence past Tuesday is a little more uncertain (widening gap between the 25th and 75th NBM percentiles or wider range of modeled outcomes). This increase in uncertainty comes as the the two leading LREF clusters begin to show diverging scenarios to how the mid-week trough may progress. Depending on how long this feature lingers over the region, its presence will impact the forecast through the rest of the week. The leading cluster/scenario (weighted more on the ENS & GEPS ensembles) is leaning more on a drier and warmer end to next week with the second leading cluster/scenario (weighted more towards the GEFS) leans toward a more mild and wetter end to next week. We will continue to iron out the details for the mid to end of week forecast as the cone of uncertainty begins to narrow more.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few clouds will linger near 5 KFT for the next few hours with clear skies returning by 01/03Z. Gusty north winds will also gradually diminish this evening, with gusts to near 30 KTS possible through 01/01Z...falling to near 8 KTS by 01/03Z as the atmosphere decouples. More modest northerly breezes...near 12 KTS...along with mainly clear skies are expected for the daytime hours Saturday.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.