textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty showers and a few thunderstorms slide through the area this morning. An isolated strong storm is not completely out of the question, but severe weather is unlikely.

- Coverage of t-storms increases this afternoon and evening. A few of these storms could become severe. Damaging wind is the primary threat, but large hail is also possible.

- Dry and pleasant conditions return for Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The unsettled weather pattern continues today. As of 2am, we've begun to see additional convective development over the Sandhills, and this will continue to slide through central Nebraska (and possibly down into northern KS) through sunrise. Recent trends would suggest that these storms will remain pretty "garden variety," but a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out if they can tap into some of the 2-3000J/kg of MUCAPE across the area.

There will likely be a bit of a "lull" in the late morning and early afternoon before additional convection develops and moves into the area late this afternoon or evening. There is still quite a bit of spread amongst the CAMs on convective timing/coverage for later in the day, but the general expectation is for the severe threat to ramp up in the 6-7PM timeframe and exit the area in the 1-2am timeframe. As has been the case over the previous week, wind looks to be the primary severe threat...especially if storms can organize into one or more bowing segments. That said, severe hail cannot be ruled out with deep-layer shear around 30kts.

Wednesday looks to remain dry. Rain/t-storm chances return on Thursday through the weekend, but the overall severe threat does not look overly concerning. Global ensembles hint at a potentially more active pattern again for the following work week, but of course uncertainty remains high at this range.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Mostly sunny skies and seasonably temperatures were observed across the local area this afternoon. With clear skies, instability is building across the region, but with a strong CAP in place across the area, expect skies to remain mostly clear through the afternoon hours with storms firing up across the high plains where conditions are more favorable. These storms should eventually spread east through the evening hours, with CAMS indicating they will rapidly diminish across our western most counties. That said, given the available instability, could see a few strong/marginally severe storms as they reach the local area around late evening, likely only impacting areas west of Highway 183.

Things become a bit more trick on Tuesday as most models are indicating some showers/thunderstorms around through the daytime hours, albeit the better shot should come with an upper level disturbance forecast to cross the local are during the evening hours. As a result, have some pops in the forecast through the afternoon hours, but any severe weather potential should be in concert with the approaching disturbance, with strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail being the primary concerns. The other concern is the small potential for fog during the AM hours. SREF probs indicate there is a good chance for some fog development across the center of the area Tuesday morning, but with clouds and showers around, largely discounted this and chose not to introduce fog into the forecast.

Beyond Tuesday, west northwest flow aloft is anticipated to continue across the local area through the end of the week with the axis of the upper level ridge transitioning east across the local area next weekend. This should result in intermittent chances for thunderstorms, with the EC/GFS keying in mainly on Friday night/Sunday night for better chances of storms, with off an on again storm chances lingering into at least next Monday. While storms will be around at times, it is possible some areas will remain dry. In addition, with northwesterly flow continuing through Friday, temperatures should remain near to below normal each day, before warming up over the upcoming weekend as the axis of the ridge moves across the local area. Some guidance has mid to upper 90s returning for Saturday and Sunday afternoons, but the official forecast remains about 4-7 degrees below this potential.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated through the period with a small chance for a -TSRA this evening at KEAR as the next round of high plains convection tracks southeast across the area. Winds overall, will be light and less than 12 KTS, struggling to find direction this afternoon (hence the VRB05KT). Models indicate mid/upper level clouds will accompany convection this evening, and have a BKN150 group at both terminals overnight. Winds should be predominantly northerly by daybreak Wednesday as skies clear, but remain light, at less than 12 KTS.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.