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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers with possible (around 70% chance) snow squalls today. Visibility in blowing snow may be reduced down to 1/4 mile. Use caution if driving.

- High Wind Warning in effect until 6 PM today for most areas along and west of Highway 281.

- Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM today for areas generally along and west of Highway 183.

- Wind chills of -1 to around -20 degrees are expected tonight. Areas in and around Ord, NE will be the most likely to experience wind chills around -20 degrees.

- Fire weather concerns continue through at least next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Today through tonight...

An upper level trough is centered over the northern Plains and upper Midwest and extends over Nebraska and Kansas. Temperatures are currently mostly in the 30s across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Gusty, northwest winds are present and are generally around 20 to 35 mph sustained with gusts up to 50 to 55 mph. A High Wind Warning continues for most areas along and west of Highway 281 until 6 PM this evening. Winds will decrease some this evening and tonight but will still be around 15 to 25 mph sustained with gusts up to 35 mph. Upper lift associated with the upper trough is over the region and is aiding in producing snow showers. While total snow accumulations are expected to be light (a trace to around 0.5 to 1 inch), the wind combined with the snow is the greatest threat today. There is a fairly high chance (around 70%) of snow squalls developing and moving across portions of the forecast area today. These can be fairly isolated and develop quickly with blowing snow reducing visibilities down to 1/4 mile or less. The snow squall threat will decrease this evening as the winds decrease. The snow is expected to continue through the afternoon hours with some models showing it continuing through much of the evening and overnight hours. Temperatures tonight are expected to plummet to the low single digits to the teens. The wind combined with these temperatures will produce wind chills of around -1 to -20 degrees. Areas in and around Ord, NE will be the most likely to experience wind chills around -20 degrees.

Saturday through Saturday night...

Northwest to north winds will continue across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday but will not be as strong as today. Winds of around 15 to 25 mph sustained with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph are expected. A surface high will dominate the northern and central Plains. High temperatures across the area are only expected to be in the teens and 20s but wind chill temperatures will generally range from the positive single digits to negative single digits during the afternoon. Winds will become southwesterly to westerly Saturday night (around 10 mph with gusts up to 15 to 25 mph) with temperatures mostly dropping into the single digits. This will result in wind chills dropping to around 0 to around -8 degrees.

Sunday through Monday night...

A broad, upper trough will be over most of the country on Sunday. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest across the forecast area on Sunday as another cold front moves into the area. There is some uncertainty in regards to high temperatures on Sunday due to the timing of the front. Right now highs are expected to mostly be in the 40s but some places across the north may not get out of the 30s. A surface high will be across the area Sunday night with northerly winds and temperatures dropping into the single digits to mid teens. Wind chills will generally range from the positive single digits to around -10 degrees. Winds will remain out of the northwest on Monday with high temperatures only in the 20s and 30s. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the positive single digits and teens.

Tuesday through Thursday...

A surface trough will develop across western Nebraska and western Kansas on Tuesday with winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Nebraska out of the southwest to west. This will contribute to temperatures warming up into the 40s and 50s. Another cold front is expected to push into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Although there is some uncertainty with high temperatures Wednesday, at this time expecting highs to be in the 30s and 40s. There is potential for high temperatures to be a little colder on Thursday despite winds becoming southerly during the afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Off-and-on bursts of snow, temporarily reducing visibility to as low as 1 mile with cloud bases temporarily MVFR, will last across the next mainly 2-5 hours. Beyond these scattered snow showers, cloud bases will hang near MVFR levels (3,500-6,000ft) through the rest of the night and Saturday morning. A brief period of MVFR bases after 6z can't be ruled off the table, however, the best chances for these surprise low-level MVFR ceilings will be more favorable while the snow showers are around (through 2-5z).

Gusty winds will also prevail through the period, with gusts as high as 35-45kts possible at times. Wind directions will maintain a northwesterly orientation through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Minimum relative humidity values today may get down to around 25% to 30% across far western portions of the forecast area (mainly west of Highway 183). Although these values are above critical fire weather thresholds, the wind is enough to compensate for the humidity. Winds are sustained around 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 to 55 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas along and west of Highway 183 until 6 PM this evening.

Fire weather concerns continue into Saturday across the same areas as today. Humidity values will be less than today with values of around 20% (or slightly below) to around 25% to 30%. Even though winds will be less than today, northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph are expected on Saturday.

Some areas generally west of the Tri-Cities may experience minimum humidity of around 25% to 30% Sunday afternoon with winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 25 to 45 mph. This may lead to some areas of elevated to near critical fire weather on Sunday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Monday. Minimum humidity values are expected to get down to around 20% to 25% across portions of the area but winds will only be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to around 15 to 25 mph.

Fire weather concerns continue into Tuesday. Minimum humidity values of 15% to 25% are possible Tuesday afternoon from Dawson County south to Furnas County. Wind gusts out of the west will be around 15 to 20 mph.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ039-040- 046-047-060>062-072>075-082>084. KS...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ005-017.


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