textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of the local area today. Some of these storms could become severe, especially across areas south and west of the Tri-Cities during the late morning through mid-afternoon hours.

- Additional thunderstorm chances return to the area Wednesday evening through Thursday night. A few strong to severe storms over this period cannot be ruled out.

- Seasonably cool temperatures (70s/low 80s) through the end of the work week with upper 80s-mid 90s returning over the upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A mainly quiet night across the local area with thunderstorms starting to intensify west of the area early this morning. Expect these showers and thunderstorms to work their way east over the next few hours, impacting much of the forecast area during the morning through afternoon hours. While there isn't a ton of instability to work with, most CAMS flare up this convection during the late morning through mid-afternoon hours, especially across western portions of the area. While the morning convection could limit the instability further this afternoon, good shear and some breaks in the cloud cover could allow for some more organized/stronger storms, capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts. As a result, continued with the potential for hail to the size of half dollars and wind gusts to near 70 MPH possible primarily south and west of the Tri-cities from the late morning through mid- afternoon hours - although the entire area remains in at least a marginal risk for severe weather today.

Convection should then mostly wane across the local area by the early evening hours with a weak disturbance in westerly flow possibly firing up additional convection late tonight just south and west of the region. Mainly dry weather is then anticipated for the daytime hours Wednesday before the next more notable disturbance brings another widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms back to the local area Wednesday evening through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Currently through this evening...

Overall been quiet across the forecast area through the mid- afternoon hours, with satellite imagery showing partly-mostly cloudy skies with quite a bit of low-mid level CU around. In the upper levels...the area sits under west-northwesterly flow, set up between broad high pressure spread across the southern CONUS and a couple of areas of low pressure over central/eastern portions of Canada. Seeing a few shortwave disturbances embedded in the main flow...one working into the southeastern CONUS, others over the High Plains and Nrn Rockies. At the surface, winds across the forecast area are southeasterly, with broad high pressure over eastern NE/KS northward into the MN region...with low pressure/troughing along the High Plains. Radar showing a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder working east toward northern portions of the forecast area...but the main focus of storm development is further west, along the sfc front and upper forcing. Models continue to show this western activity working its way east the rest of this afternoon and evening...but are in pretty good agreement showing it not making enough eastward progress to have much impact on our area between the loss of daytime heating and moving into an area with less instability to work with.

Tonight into Tuesday...

Further into the overnight hours tonight and early Tuesday morning, models showing one of the upper level lows mentioned above moving further east...ending up near the MT/ND/Can border by 12Z Tuesday. Showers and storms are expected to develop along the southward extending troughing with time...and have precip chances ramping up after 06Z, and especially after 09Z tonight. Unfortunately, even being this close to the event...there is still plenty of uncertainties and lowered confidence in how activity evolves as we get into the daytime hours on Tuesday. There are still quite a few differences between models...some showing more one main push through on the earlier side of things, others linger at least scattered activity around most of the day. Because of the uncertainty, forecast precipitation chances are pretty broad...highest PoPs are currently during the morning hours across northern areas, with more uncertainty further in the day. Though there are some questions with the timing of when things arrive/move through...most models have the brunt of activity pushing south of the CWA by evening (some are just quicker pushing it through than others). Not out of the question that some storms could be strong to severe, even through the first half of the day...that potential would increase if it's a slower progression or there are more breaks in precip/clouds that can allow for better instability to develop/work with. The further south you go, the better that potential for more instability is...thus only far SWrn portions of the CWA are included in the SPC Day 2 Slight Risk area...the rest of the area is in the Marginal Risk area. 60 MPH wind/quarter hail would be the main threats for the earlier activity...but later in the afternoon, storms with gusts closer to 70 MPH and larger hail would be possible.

Wednesday on through the weekend...

Looking at the mid-late work week time frame...models showing little overall change in the upper level pattern. Flow across the region looks to remain largely zonal/progressive...with periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional thunderstorm chances to the forecast area. Didn't make any changes to the NBM PoPs, which are focused mainly in the late Wed night-Thu night time frame. As we get into the upcoming weekend...current models showing a drier trend, a bit of a break from these upper level disturbances, even with pattern turning more southwesterly as a larger-scale low pressure system moves onto the West Coast.

As far as temperatures go...confidence in how temps pan out for Tuesday is on the lower side due to the precip potential during the day, but most spots are forecast to reach the mid-70s. The Wed-Fri time frame look to remain in the 70s for much of the area...with highs climbing into the weekend. Mainly 80s are forecast for Saturday, with Sunday in the upper 80s-mid 90s for most.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: Potential for MVFR to IFR CIGs and VSBYs this afternoon through mid-AM Wed.

Rest of today: Showers have largely exited the area as of midday, but can't rule out a spotty light shower redeveloping through mid-afternoon. There are some gusty SE winds on the backside of the departing showers, but these should only last another 1-2 hours. CIGs are a bit tricky as some models develop a fairly solid MVFR stratocu field by mid to late afternoon, whereas other guidance keeps clouds more in the 5-10k ft layer. The stratocu idea has some merit from a conceptual standpoint given moist boundary layer and modest winds, so have prevailing MVFR CIGs for the late afternoon. Confidence: medium.

Tonight: There's considerable uncertainty regarding cloud cover and visibility progs for tonight into Wed AM. On one hand from a conceptual model standpoint...expected light and variable winds combined with cool temps and high boundary layer moisture would suggest a pretty decent setup for dense fog - perhaps IFR to LIFR. Especially after midnight through around 13-14Z Wed. However, a majority of model guidance does not develop much in the way of fog, seemingly because of considerable mid to high cloud cover streaming into the area off of thunderstorms in SW KS. If this is indeed the case, may just end up with more of a low stratus deck than fog. Would put sub- VFR probabilities at >50%, but confidence in if this would be LIFR to IFR VSBYs vs IFR to MVFR stratus is very low attm.

Wednesday: Winds turning to the NW behind a weak cold front should clear out enough of the low level moisture to provide a return to VFR conditions by 14-15Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.