textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized slick spots are possible due to patchy freezing rain this evening. Mainly in areas north of Interstate 80 and east of Highway 281.

- The next chance for precipitation (20-30%) arrives Tuesday night. - The remainder of the forecast period (through next Friday) will see highs bouncing between the 50s, 60s and 70s. The warmest day looks to fall Monday (upper 60s and 70s).

- Near critical fire weather concerns return to southwest portions of the area Saturday through Monday afternoon. Winds do not appear to be strong enough to provoke critical conditions at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The main story up front: A few strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon for mainly our southeastern portions of the area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk (level 2 of 5) across a few of our southeastern Nebraska and Kansas counties (areas southeast of a line from York to Smith Center). Storms across north central Kansas and mainly areas east of HWY-281 in Nebraska may develop in 2 waves between 2-9PM. Storms developing earlier on and along the front (areas mainly within the slight risk area), will be more likely to become severe. The strongest storms may carry up to golf ball sized hail and/or produce wind gusts near 60MPH. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out along the front (2% SPC Tornado Risk), though the fast rushing cold air advection behind the front may keep the threat fairly minimal (mainly only for Mitchell, Jewell and Thayer counties).

The second wave of elevated storms developing later behind the front (mainly across Nebraska areas east of HWY-281) will in all likeliness be less severe in nature, though a few "hailers" can't be completely ruled out. In addition to the scattered storms, freezing rain and sleet on the back end of the system may bring in a quick wintry mix to a few portions of central Nebraska later this evening and tonight. Snowfall amounts should remain less than 0.5", primarily coating some areas north of HWY-6 with a glazing to few hundredths of an inch of ice and a trace to few tents of an inch of snow. Despite the light accumulations, slick spots on roadways mixed with northerly wind gusts of 25-35MPH could cause reduced visibilities and tricky travel conditions later this evening and tonight. At this point in time, we do not believe that impacts will be widespread enough for a Winter Weather Advisory, though we will keep a close eye for worsening conditions.

What is diving our forecast?: Aloft, we find the area underneath the difluent region of a Rockies centered trough, forcing rising motion from mid-level PVA. Pressure falls at the surface completes the picture with the triple point of a warm front, cold front and dryline all meeting across north central Kansas this afternoon. The warm front, east of the area, will continue to move northeast, increasing instability ahead of the cold front (up to 2,000J of CAPE across a few southeastern portions of the area). The dryline setting up across central Kansas has created a tight moisture gradient that is mixing eastward. These two features will provide the main support for this afternoon's severe storm potential across mainly Filmore, Thayer, Nuckolls, Jewell, Mitchell and Osborne counties. The last remaining piece of the puzzle has been the cold front that blew through a majority of the area already today. This influx of cooler air near the surface will set the stage up for wintry action across a few locations north of HWY-6 later this evening and tonight.

The forecast beyond tonight is mostly dry with only a minor 20-30% chance of precipitation returning to the area Tuesday night. The upper-level pattern is expected to flatten out zonally, limiting the potential for am amplified trough/ridging pattern. As result, highs will remain in the 50s for Saturday then quickly warming back up to the upper 60s and 70s by Monday. Highs thereafter (through next Friday) are expected to flip-flop between the 50s, 60s and low 70s. A cutoff low in the southwest will close in on to the central/southern Plains around mid-week, possibly aiding in the development of a Central Plains shortwave trough (reason for the 20- 30% PoPs). At this point in time, this event is too far out to be able to reveal too many more details. The only other forecast note will be the presence of near-critical fire weather conditions setting up across a select portion of the area Saturday through Monday afternoon. Though areas of critical RH values will likely file into a portion of our southwestern areas each afternoon, at this point in time, it is uncertain if the winds will be strong enough to support critical fire weather conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR/MVFR ceilings gradually improve tonight into Saturday morning. VFR conditions are likely by sunrise.

The best chance for any freezing precipitation will remain north and east of GRI/EAR this evening.

Winds remain out of the northwest through the period, gradually decreasing through the day on Saturday.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.