textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread fog has already developed across the forecast area early this morning. Some locations are already at/near 1/2-1/4, a trend that is expected to spread over the coming hours. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 10AM.

- How quickly fog and any low clouds diminish today will drive how high temperatures do...if things linger longer into the day than currently expected, could mess with highs...especially for NNErn areas. Current forecast has highs in the mid 70s north to low 90s south.

- Chances for storms returns this evening/tonight, with better chances being focused mainly off to our NNW. An unsettled weather pattern keeps storm chances around through the weekend.

- High temperatures peak on Friday with widespread 80s-90s currently forecast...falling back into the 60s-70s by Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Currently...

West-southwesterly flow remains in place across the area tonight...with upper air and satellite data showing high pressure anchored over the Gulf Coast region, broad/weak troughing over central/eastern Canada, with the main area of low pressure spinning over northern CA. Subtle forcing sparking of some isolated/scattered showers/storms around the area...with models showing potential for activity over portions of our forecast area as we further into the early morning hours. Looking at the surface, the pattern across the area remains a weak one...with a stalled out frontal boundary draped east through central KS. Winds across our forecast area remain light/variable. Along with precipitation chances the rest of tonight...potential for dense fog is also a concern, with a few locations having already dipped down to/near 1/4 of a mile. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 10AM for the entire forecast area.

Today and tonight...

Models are in good agreement showing little overall change in the upper level pattern through this short term period...remaining southwesterly as that West Coast low/trough starts inching its way east. Main question marks for the daytime hours will be driven by things happening before the sun comes up...precipitation chances and the fog.

As far as precipitation chances go...expecting that isolated- scattered activity to develop over the coming hours...gradually lifting NE and diminishing with time...but there are uncertainties with the timing of it exiting the area. Many of the hi-res models have little going on through the afternoon hours. Models showing a stronger shortwave disturbance working onto the Plains this evening/tonight...but continue to largely keep the best chances for storms off to the NNW of the forecast area. Have some 20-40 percent chances clipping western and northern portions of the area this evening/tonight...dry further south.

As for the fog and any lingering stratus...main concern here as well lies with the timing of improving conditions this morning. Dense Fog Advisory currently runs through 10AM...but some guidance suggests a small area could be slow to diminish and hang around closer to midday. Forecast highs are trended toward things improving by midday-early afternoon, allowing for the chance to warm up, especially across northern areas...sitting in the mid 70s north to low 90s south which should clear out much earlier. The longer any of that fog/stratus sticks around, the less time temps will have to recover...not out of the question that mid 70s would be tough to reach if it lingers longer.

Friday on...

The continued unsettled pattern keeps storm chances in the forecast through the upcoming weekend. Models remain in pretty good agreement looking at the big picture and the evolution of that upper level currently over the West Coast. By Friday evening, models showing the central of the low roughly in the OR/ID/NV border area...with the potential for a shortwave disturbance ejected out ahead of the main troughing to swing through the Plains through Friday night. An accompanying surface frontal boundary will be working its way south into the area...but uncertainties linger with just how far it progresses. The daytime hours on Friday are currently dry, with at least scattered storms possible during the evening/overnight hours along that boundary. Not out of the question some could be strong- severe, with warmer temps climbing well into the 80s-90s and better instability developing...but current SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk areas are mainly focused just out side the forecast area.

This weekend...that upper low/trough continues inching east...and if anything, compared to 24hrs ago, models have slowed a touch. 24hrs ago models were showing its main passage coming mainly late Sat night-Sun...recent runs are more in the Sun night-Mon AM time frame...so obviously plenty of details yet to figure out. Highest precip chances are currently focused in the 00Z Sunday-12Z Monday time frame. First part of next work week looking drier...but confidence isn't overly high at this point with so many other things to iron out before then.

As far as temperatures in the mid-long term...Friday is the overall warmest day in the 80s-90s. Expecting more 70s-80s for Saturday, then dropping into the 60s-70s for Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Brief Synopsis...

Higher pressure across the southeast U.S. with a cutoff low centered across northern California and southwest Oregon today, keeps the Central Plains region underneath southwest flow. This pattern tends to be fairly unstable as it only takes a weak embedded shortwave disturbance to initiate scattered showers or thunderstorms (lower than usual short-term forecast confidence). The better forcing for widespread precipitation will come over the weekend when the cutoff low weakens back to a broad trough and takes a run at the central U.S. Overall, high temperatures will be on track to peak for the week on Friday (mid 80s to low 90s) before embracing the 70s for much of the start of next week.

Tonight...

Low-level stratus continues to loom across the area this afternoon, helping to keep highs from escaping the 70s. Though a few pockets of drizzle or light rain can't be ruled out tonight (20-50% chance), the latest models have seemed to back off some with the precipitation potential (10-30% HREF probs). In all, the best time window for any coverage of scattered light rain showers will mainly occur between the 1-9AM time range. Accumulations will be minimal (<0.25") with most areas only receiving a trace to a few thousandths of an inch of precip. The other main weather concern tonight would be for the possibility of dense fog. Virtually all HREF members (80%) including the RRFS, point towards a widespread coverage of dense fog tonight. Given the weak easterly surface winds (upslope flow) with high moisture concentrations (60s dewpoints), the potential for fog development appears almost certain. In addition, forecast lows are projected to reach the 60s (approaching dewpoints), a high indicator for condensation or fog.

Thursday & Beyond...

Temperatures will gradually rise a through Friday (mid 80s to low 90s highs) as clearing skies couple with southerly warm air advecting winds once more. This heat will likely remain short-lived as a cold frontal passage overnight Friday flips the winds north again, dragging in a cooler and drier airmass. Highs on the other side look to return to the 70s to mid 80s Saturday and the upper 60s and 70s Sunday through Tuesday.

The next best chance for precipitation (20-50%) lies overnight Friday with the coming of the cold front (and the upper-level trough/disturbance aloft). The main uncertainty at the moment would be for how far south and west thunderstorms are able to form. The latest high-resolution models/CAMs paint much of northeast Nebraska to be under siege from these storms with a few initializing across central nebraska. Conditions wise, the instability axis (the most common path for storms to follow ... where CAPE >2,000J/kg) is modeled to set up just northeast of the Tri-Cities. The factors that, however, keep confidence for severe convection low for now would be from minimal shear (20-30kts) and degrading lapse rates overnight that could thwart overall storm intensity. In case of an earlier arrival of storms Friday evening instead of night (slightly more severe conducing ingredients), the SPC includes the southeast 2/3rd of the area under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Scattered storms chance return Saturday and Sunday.

Looking well beyond for the end of week forecast next week, highs may be possible to warm back up a few degrees. Cluster analysis begins to diverge between the next Wednesday to next Saturday timeframe as the ensembles start to show more variance (spread of possibilities). The leading cluster, explaining around 40% of the variance, favors broad ridging in the central U.S. This pattern would support the warmer temperatures and possibly a less frequency of precipitation chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern for this TAF period comes right off the bat early this morning...with fog/low level stratus remaining an issue. Dense fog has developed across the area, have 1/4SM visibilities and sub-500ft ceilings continuing for at least the first few hours. Conditions are expected to develop with time this morning...but confidence in the exact hour notable improvement occurs is not high. Do have a period of VFR conditions this afternoon-early evening...some guidance suggests that may not occur period, again confidence is low. Lower ceilings are expected overnight. Kept a mention of showers in early this morning...another chance for precip moves in later in the period, but with models focusing the better chances to the north and west of the terminal areas, kept the forecast dry for now...will see how upcoming models trend. Light/variable winds early this morning are expected to become more easterly, then southeasterly through the period...speeds mainly topping out around 10-15 MPH.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007- 017>019.