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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Wide variation in temperatures (40s-50s to lower 70s) from N to S expected today and Tuesday thanks to sharp frontal zone.
- 60s to 70s area wide on Wednesday ahead of another cold front.
- Various chances (20-50%) for light rain and/or wintry mix tonight into Tuesday. Much greater chances (50-80%) for more organized rain Wednesday night through Thursday night.
- Warmer and potentially active/stormy (chances around 50-70%) next weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026
A broad upper trough is over much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country with an upper ridge centered over Arizona and New Mexico. South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are on the backside of the upper trough with winds mostly out of the west to northwest. High temperatures today will be in the 60s and low 70s with sunny to mostly sunny skies. Winds will become easterly to northeasterly tonight as a surface high begins to move over much of the area. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 30s.
A cold front will affect much of the forecast area on Monday with high temperatures expected to range from the 40s across the north to the 70s in the south. Winds will remain out of the east Monday night as atmospheric lift increases across the area. A mix of rain and snow is possible (15% to 50% chance) Monday night. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the 20s and 30s. There is some uncertainty Tuesday with high temperatures due to uncertainty with how far north a warm front will move. High temperatures may range from the 70s in the far southwest to the 40s in the far north. Light rain will also be possible on Tuesday (up to 50% chance) mainly along and north of the front. Winds will increase out of the south as the warm front lifts northward Tuesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 30s and 40s with 50s possible across the far south.
An upper trough will move over the northern and central Plains on Wednesday with a cold front beginning to move into the area. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 60s and 70s on Wednesday. Showers and storms may develop (20% to 45% chance) Wednesday afternoon along the front with chances increasing to 45% to 65% Wednesday night. Cooler air is expected to move into the area on Thursday with some uncertainty remaining on high temperatures. This cooler air will remain in place on Friday. A warm up is expected on Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s as winds increase out of the south. Various precipitation chances continue Thursday through Saturday night with the highest chances (60% to near 80%) Friday through Saturday night.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Today: VFR conditions with gradually increasing mid to high clouds. Winds will increase this morning out of the NE to ENE, becoming sustained 13-18kt and gusts 25-30kt by this afternoon. Confidence: High.
Tonight: Cloud cover should thicken up and lower this evening, and may even start to see some iso-scat light rain and/or snow showers anytime after about 03Z. Coverage over/near the terminals is uncertain, so kept at PROB30s for now. Late overnight - around 09Z - expect some MVFR to IFR stratus to build in from the E/NE and continue beyond sunrise Tue AM. Winds will remain breezy out of the ENE/E between 14-19kt. Confidence: Wind - high, CIGs/flight category - medium.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None. KS...None.
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