textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dwindling severe weather threat today and tonight, esp. for south central Nebraska. Portions of northern Kansas may still be under some severe threat overnight, but even this is trending lower.

- Scattered showers and generally weak thunderstorms may persist into Monday AM, mainly along and E of Hwy 281. Still appears the main severe threat on Monday will be E of the local area.

- Will update key messages for the rest of the forecast later this afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Bottom line regarding the severe threat today and tonight is that is decreasing quite a bit. Can't say with certainty that there won't still be some strong/severe storms over mainly portions of northern Kansas tonight, but even this is looking increasingly unlikely owing to lack of deep instability.

Round one of today's potential is moving through now, and it's really struggling to be much more than just garden variety showers. Even lightning is pretty limited N of the state line. A vigorous elevated supercell is near/E of Salina, which is representative of the potential I though't could sneak into our far SE...but the low level airmass is just too stable and stubborn to allow for a northward surge of instability. Shouldn't be too much of a surprise, though, given widespread temperatures only in the 40s! In fact, chilly 40s and 50s amidst northerly low level flow extends all the way through W KS and into the TX/OK Panhandles...which casts serious doubt on our severe potential tonight, even though forcing will be stronger with the NEward ejection of the primary upper trough.

Still think we'll see a nice lull in even the showers late this afternoon and evening thanks to subsidence behind the current wave. It will remain very dreary and chilly though with no impetus for low level mixing to increase and help scatter out the widespread stratus. Timing for the next round looks to be around and after midnight and into early Monday AM. As mentioned above, forcing and shear/kinematics will be there for severe storms, but latest HRRR runs keep any MUCAPE >1000 J/kg south of the NE/KS state line...and the nose of the more substantial (>2000 J/kg) MUCAPE closer to I-70. My gut tells me areas from around Stockton to Hebron S and E still have a non-zero chance for some severe storms with this round...but probably only a hail threat. Forecast soundings from the Beloit area show a very stable lowest 4K ft, with most/all of the CAPE increase noted in the 4-6K ft layer. This would make tornadogenesis and even damaging winds VERY difficult to achieve. A strengthening LLJ will help feed the uptick in convective coverage/strength late tonight, and appears it will veer E of the area by sunrise (probably even by 09Z). Off and on scattered elevated convection could persist for central and eastern areas through the morning as the primary core of the upper trough swings through.

Obviously will continue to monitor observations and trends...but in my experience, such widespread coverage of such cold/stable conditions locally and in the immediate upstream airmass is not conducive to significant severe weather. Some hail threat from elevated storms persists until the entire trough passes through, but finding it increasingly difficult to message any sort of damaging wind and tornado threat given the latest trends.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Will update this section further later this afternoon.

From the previous shift/forecast: There continue to be various chances of showers and thunderstorms across at least a portion of the forecast area each day Monday through Friday. High temperatures will generally be in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night will mostly be in the 30s with some upper 20s on Tuesday night with a risk of frost and freeze developing. Low temperatures for the rest of the week will generally be in the 30s and 40s with some areas at risk for frost and possibly freeze in isolated locations.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: IFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs potentially as low as IFR.

Overall thunderstorm threat to the terminals has become very low today, and is decreasing for the overnight period, as well. Will still see off and on rain showers, but pulled the lightning out for the rest of today and this evening. May see enough instability return for storms late overnight into Mon AM, but severe weather is unlikely. Confidence: Medium to high.

CIGs look to remain stuck in the IFR to LIFR range until very late in the period in which they should gradually lift and scatter as the storm system pulls away. Confidence: High.

VSBYs are more uncertain and could range anywhere from VFR to IFR. The greatest risk for IFR VSBYs will be from around sunset until a cold front arrives towards 09Z-10Z. Otherwise, should be mostly VFR to MVFR. Confidence: Low.

Wind will be out of the E rest of today, then bec light and variable this evening. Wind will turn to the NW with the passage of aforementioned cold front late tonight, then increase and become breezy by mid to late Mon AM. Confidence: High.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.