textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- One more unseasonably warm afternoon today with temperatures in the tri-cities once again approaching near record territory.

- An approaching cold front could spark some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity tonight, mainly across our north central Kansas counties. Better thunderstorm chances expected along this front as it moves south of the area Tuesday PM, with a marginal risk for severe weather impacting far southern portions of the area.

- Unsettled weather returns for everyone during the middle portion of the week, with seasonably cool high temperatures mainly in the 50s and 60s.

- The first frost of the season is possible Saturday morning, with widespread lower to middle 30s currently in the forecast.

UPDATE

Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Steady southerly winds along with variable high level cloud cover impacted the local area overnight, resulting in another very mild mid-October morning. Low level stratus can be seen on satellite inching south across portions of northern Nebraska the past few hours, bound by a cold front that should continue to work its way towards I-80 by the late afternoon or early evening hours. While this stratus is not expected to remain in tact as the front approaches the local area this afternoon, the front itself could act as a focal point for some very isolated showers or thunderstorms during the evening hours. The latest HRRR has these storms developing mainly across our north central Kansas counties, dissipating as they push east during the overnight hours. Have some very small pops to cover this potential, with a dry and cooler start to the day expected Tuesday. Before the cooler weather moves in, however, one more unseasonably warm afternoon is anticipated, with high temperatures returning to near record territory this afternoon (the current forecast is about 2-4 degrees below record values for both Grand Island and Hastings).

Lots of cloud cover and cooler temperatures should then take hold for Tuesday, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms returning for the middle portion of the week. Currently, a marginal risk for severe weather returns to areas along and southeast of the cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening, when the combination of ample instability and deep-layer shear could result in a few stronger organized storms capable of producing marginally severe hail and severe wind gusts.

Although there remains significant differences between the global models with the handling of the main upper level trough mid-week, a much cooler and unsettled couple of days appears likely Wednesday/Thursday, with clearing later in the week potentially setting the local area up for the first frost of the season. While deterministic guidance isn't quite a cool as it was yesterday, widespread lower to mid 30s along with light winds remain in the forecast for Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Currently...

Conditions across the area continue to sound like a broken record...dry, with well above normal temperatures. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data continue to show southwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains this afternoon. This is driven by upper level riding extending north from the eastern Srn Plains northward toward the western Great Lakes...set up between one area of low pressure working its way east through the Midwest, and troughing set up along the West Coast. At the surface, lower pressure sits over eastern portions of CO...with a trough axis/cold front extending northeast through SW-North central NE into eastern SD. This sfc boundary being in closer to proximity to the local forecast area is helping keep winds from being as strong/widespread as it was on Saturday. Seeing quite a range across the forecast area...with ODX/LXN on the light/variable to at times calm side, vs gusts exceeding 30 MPH across far SSE portions of the area. Had more widespread coverage of upper level clouds to start the day...but that has diminished/pushed east with time...leaving mostly sunny skies for most of the area this afternoon. Hasn't been any big surprises as far as temperatures go...if anything, those far NNW locations may fall a few degrees short, with other locations solidly in the mid-upper 80s to low 90s (SSE areas).

Tonight through Monday Night...

Through this more immediate, short-term period through Monday night...most the far majority of the forecast area, it will continue to be a dry period. Models are in good agreement with not showing any notable change in the overall upper level flow...remaining southwesterly. The upper level high/ridge axis shifts a bit further east...while the main low pressure system becomes more centered roughly over southern NV. A piece of shortwave energy riding around the edge of the ridging into the Dakotas late tonight and moreso during the day on Monday...the main impact for our area being the sfc frontal boundary gets more of push. Still some uncertainties with the exact timing of the front/where it ends up by the end of the day...which could potentially really throw a wrench in the wind/high temperature forecast. At this point, the forecast remains on the warmer side...with increasing mixing into warmer air aloft ahead of the front allowing more more areas to potentially reach into the low 90s (mainly central/southeastern two-thirds of the area). Expecting another day with plenty of sun around...and until that boundary pushes further in...gusty winds will be possible out ahead of it. Afternoon relative humidity values falling to near/below 30 will be possible once again, bringing another round of at least elevated fire weather concerns.

If there is going to be any preciptiation through this time frame, it looks to come mid-evening Monday into the pre-dawn hours Tuesday...confined to far ESE portions of the area. A few models continue to show the potential for some isolated/scattered precip developing along the nose of increased warm-air advection/lift...because there isn't a ton of support from other models, kept chances confined to 20 percent.

Tuesday through Thursday....

Better chances for precipitation finally work their way into the region as we get into the mid-week period...but there are still some uncertainties with the timing...and overall coverage, especially early on. During the day on Tuesday...the main upper level low pressure system is still working its way east through the Desert SW/Rockies...with the surface frontal boundary expected to continue its gradual southward push. Big question for later Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours will be driven by where that surface front ends up...as it looks to be the focus for thunderstorm development. Forecast precipitation chances are still on the broad side into the evening-overnight hours Tuesday because of some of those lingering questions with location...the highest chances of 60+ percent remain across roughly the southeastern third of the forecast area. Some better instability will work its way in ahead of the front...not out of the question that some storms could be strong/severe...and the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area continues to clip our SErn corner.

While forecast precipitation chances remain area-wide, late Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday brings a bit of a lull in chances...before ramping back up Wednesday evening into Thursday. These increased chances are driven by the passage of the main upper low itself...crossing right over the area at some point during the day on Thursday. Just how quickly that occurs and precip ends remains a little uncertain...GFS remains on the quicker side vs the ECMWF. Not talking about a significant difference...more on the scale of 6hrs or so...both have QPF gone by 06Z Friday.

As far as temperatures go, the most notable thing here is the end to the well above average highs. Average highs for this time of year are in the upper 60s north to low 70s south (we're sitting 20 degrees higher than that just today!)...forecast is much closer to that by the time Wed-Thu rolls around. Tuesday is another low- confidence temp forecast because of the sfc boundary working its way through...quite a range forecast across the area, with mid 60s in the far NNW to mid-upper 80s in the far SE.

Friday into next weekend...

Forecast dries back out for the end of the work weekend into next weekend...but there are some model differences whether we see some broad upper level ridging work its way back in or another system is at least in the area. The cooler conditions continue into Friday and Saturday...current forecast highs for Friday are only in the mid 50s to low 60s. Will see how models trend in the coming days...but will be monitoring the potential for our first frost of the season Friday night into Saturday morning. Current forecast has light winds...with lows dropping into the mid-30s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period. Scattered high clouds can be seen across the region on satellite early this morning with thicker low level stratus further north (and behind a cold front) across far northern Nebraska and South Dakota. The latest VWP profile indicated winds as high as 55KTS at 2 KFT...with LLWS likely being observed at both terminals at the moment. Expect this LLWS to fade at KEAR before day break and at KGRI by 12/14Z as the responsible LLJ continues to shift east ahead of the approaching cold front. This front should stay north of both terminals through the early afternoon hours with signs this front will stall north or near I-80 by early evening. As a result, expect southerly winds this morning to eventually shift and become westerly ahead of the front this afternoon before turning northerly aft 13/00Z. Lower CIGS should hold off until after the end of the current period with VFR conditions likely continuing through at least 13/06Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.