textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Record-breaking heat continues, with Saturday featuring HISTORIC HEAT FOR MARCH across much of our forecast area (CWA) and particularly in our Nebraska Tri Cities! Grand Island/Hastings airports are likely to shatter their high temperature records for the ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH and exceed 90 degrees at the earliest point in any year on record by 2+ weeks! See separate CLIMATE section below for more details. - The aforementioned record heat on Saturday (plus very low relative humidity), in tandem with breezy south-southwest winds during the afternoon-evening...then followed by strong north winds overnight into Sunday morning...sets the stage for a concerning fire weather situation. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM Saturday-4 AM Sunday for our entire forecast area.

- From Sunday-Friday, fire weather remains our paramount concern. Although no widespread/outright-critical conditions currently appear likely on most days, at least "near-critical" conditions are a certainty most days. See separate FIRE WEATHER section below for more details.

- Unfortunately, aside from a few very small (no more than 10-20%) chances for spotty rain, the VAST MAJORITY of the 7-day forecast remains bone-dry, as we sink ever-farther into an increasingly-concerning drought situation.

- Temperature wise beyond Saturday's historic heat, no additional days look nearly as hot. However, it will certainly remain seasonably-mild, with afternoon highs Sunday-Friday mainly 60s-70s, except warmer 80s Wednesday, and perhaps only 50s on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Wow, are we getting into RARE TERRITORY temperature-wise on Saturday! Separate CLIMATE section below has more details, but not only are Grand Island/Hastings likely to exceed 90 degrees in March for the first time on record on Saturday, but could also reach the mid-90s the earliest in any year on record by at least 2-3 weeks!

- Unless/until we see a legitimate pattern change with at least semi-meaningful rain chances (MAYBE some hints of this a few days beyond this 7-day forecast a few days either side of April 1st?), fire weather will surely remain our paramount focus.

- As far as forecast changes go versus our previous overnight- issuance, probably the most noticeable/meaningful modifications were:

1) Northerly wind gusts associated with the late Sat night-early Sunday AM were cranked up a good 10+ MPH (and probably not enough). We are now calling for at least brief peak gusts at least 40-50 MPH, and raw/higher-res model data suggests at least near-severe gusts of 55+ MPH could be on the table. Obviously we not want ANY ACTIVE FIRES igniting prior to this frontal surge!

2) In tandem, wind speeds for Sunday daytime were likely raised at least 5 MPH from previous forecast, with much of the day now expected to feature sustained speeds at least 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40 MPH.

3) High temps were nudged slightly upward (no more than a few degrees) for nearly all days except Monday, which actually trended very slightly cooler than previous.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Fri. March 27): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 33O PM: Today is turning out very much as expected, albeit if anything probably very slightly warmer. Under only varying degrees of passing high cirrus (mostly sunny skies), high temps are on track to top out 86-92 degrees across most of our CWA, with Grand Island/Hastings already breaking date-specific records for March 20th (and at least making a run toward the March monthly record of 90).

Aloft in the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data clearly reveal an anomalous/expansive ridge of high pressure (500 millibar height around 595 decameters) spiraling over the Desert Southwest, and it's influence obviously extending here well into the central U.S. as we reside under northwesterly flow between it and a broad eastern U.S. trough. At the surface, although we are seeing occasional "sneaky" gusts of 20+ MPH, fortunately for the most part sustained, mainly northerly to northwesterly winds are near/below 10 MPH and gusts mainly under 15 MPH...holding critical fire weather concerns at bay.

- TONIGHT: As a surface high pressure axis translates through, very light breezes this evening will become established from more of a south-southwesterly direction post-midnight. In this very dry airmass, overnight lows temps have been dropping a little bit farther than anticipated, so nudged down lows very slightly, but still very mild for late-March with most areas mid-upper 40s except some lower 40s mainly far north/west.

- SATURDAY DAYTIME-EVENING: It's still hard for this forecast to believe, but we are officially forecasting high temps to reach 92-96 degrees across the vast majority of our CWA, and it's quite possible we might not be aiming quite warm enough. Again, unprecedented territory for March since our modern-day records began! Unfortunately, fire weather concerns will be increased compared to today, thanks to afternoon-evening winds sustained 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 25-30 MPH out of the south-southwest. Red Flag Warning in effect CWA-wide.

- SATURDAY LATE NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY AM: A powerful cold front comes crashing southward through our CWA, driven by an upper disturbance passing by to our north, the frontal passage marked by northerly gusts AT LEAST 40-50 MPH (and possibly 55+ MPH on at least a brief/localized basis). This front will enter our far northern CWA shortly after midnight, and clear our far southern counties around sunrise. With increasing confidence in these stronger winds, hit them a little harder in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). The "end time" of the Red Flag Warning (4 AM Sunday) is admittedly a bit of a compromise between steadily-rising overnight RH and this frontal passage, as the front will only be roughly halfway through our CWA by the current expiration time. Low temps aimed from low-mid 40s northwest to upper 40-low 50s southeast.

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: Although MUCH COOLER than Saturday, we are still aiming for above normal high temps ranging from near-60 far north to mid 60s far south. Of greater concern are the moderately-strong daytime winds, with sustained speeds 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40 MPH much of the day but gradually easing up mid-late afternoon as surface high pressure noses in from the north. Although we "technically" aren't forecasting RH to meet our 20% or lower critical threshold, many places could drop to around 25% and at least some consideration might need given to Warning issuance to account for the winds.

Sunday night, light winds gradually flip around to southerly. This will likely be the chilliest night of the next week, and lows were nudged down to 30-36 degrees most places.

- MONDAY-TUESDAY: Another warm-up gets underway, with highs on Monday similar to Sunday (mainly low-mid 60s), but then mainly low-mid 70s Tuesday as upper ridging again strengthens. Precipitation-wise, our official forecast is still dry, but there are subtle hints that mainly Monday could feature some spotty rain showers (perhaps a weak thunderstorm?). Something to keep an eye on but meaningful/widespread rain unlikely. As southerly winds turn breezy, we'll have to watch for at least spotty critical fire weather conditions (mainly in our extreme west for Monday).

- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Broad ridging remains the dominant influence aloft. Our forecast still remains dry, but especially ECMWF hints at some low chances for showers/weak convection at least near the fringes of our CWA, so something to watch. Wednesday currently looks to be the "peak" of next week's warm up (highs mainly low-mid 80s but possibly near-90 far west-southwest), with Thursday then a bit cooler with highs 60s-70s (will all depend on the speed/strength of cold frontal passage). Although far too early to be confident in details, we are technically forecasting some critical fire weather conditions especially Thursday. Our official forecast carries some very-low-confidence precip chances for Thursday night.

- FRIDAY: A full week out so subject to plenty of inherent uncertainy, but at least for now this looks like our overall-coolest day of the next week with highs "only" into the mid 50s most areas. However, based on latest "raw" and ensemble data, would not be surprised to see these values trend up in later forecasts (perhaps more into the 60s than 50s).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: This is an extremely-high confidence (and incredibly "quiet") period regarding VFR ceiling/visibility (only limited passing high cirrus) and seasonably-light winds...with sustained speeds the vast majority of the time under 10KT and even occasional "higher" gusts...mainly this afternoon...largely under 15KT. Wind direction will prevail generally northerly this afternoon...then variable (with very light speeds) this evening into tonight within a surface high pressure axis...then finally become more consistent out of the south-southwest Saturday morning into very early afternoon.

A touch of weak low level wind shear (LLWS) could materialize mainly 07-11Z, but with shear magnitude within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL not currently expected to exceed 25KT, this does not meet TAF-inclusion-criteria at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING (FRIDAY): Unseasonably-warm conditions will keep relative humidity (RH) well down into the 5-15 percent range through around sunset. However, fortunately, winds will remain seasonably light...holding critical fire weather conditions at bay. Although occasional/fleeting gusts could reach 20 MPH or slightly higher, sustained speeds through sunset should mainly average around 10 MPH or less...with gusts mainly 17 MPH or less...out of a mainly northerly direction.

- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for our entire forecast area, for a combination of very low afternoon and evening RH with moderately- strong south-southwesterly winds, followed by increasing RH but even stronger north winds late Saturday night-early Sunday morning behind a surging cold front. For the afternoon-evening hours, sustained south-southwest winds will average 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 25-30 MPH, while RH again bottoms out 5-15% in the presence of record- shattering high temperatures at least into the low-mid 90s (likely the hottest temperatures on record during the month of March for most of our area!). Late Saturday night into early morning (mainly 12-7 AM), a strong cold front will surge southward through our area, making any ongoing fires prone to an abrupt switch to northerly winds with gusts easily 40-50 MPH for at least a few hours (perhaps higher). Fortunately, RH will recover upward during this time, with values at least back up to 30-50% by around 4 AM Sunday and increasing further through mid-morning before falling again.

- SUNDAY: Despite most of our area being 30-35 degrees COOLER than Saturday, afternoon high temps will still be above-normal and reach the low-mid 60s most areas. At least for now, outright-critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated due to afternoon RH bottoming out "only" 25-30 percent across our area, but moderately-strong north winds will be a concern with sustained speeds through much of the day 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40 MPH.

- MONDAY: Afternoon high temperatures are aimed fairly similar to Sunday (most places low-mid 60s), but winds will flip around to out of the south- southeast and should not be AS strong as Sunday's speeds, with sustained speeds mainly 10-20 MPH/gusts mainly 15-25 MPH. Minimum afternoon RH is currently forecast to hold up 20-25% most areas, but a few of our far western counties (mainly Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) could drop more so 15-20% and technically meet critical thresholds during the afternoon.

- TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Obviously the "finer details" regarding fire weather get increasingly uncertain as we get out this far in time. However, at least near-critical conditions appear likely in at least portions of our area each afternoon, with Thursday of overall- greatest concern for perhaps some outright-critical conditions.

-- NOTE: - NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

CLIMATE

Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

** RECORD-BREAKING/HISTORIC HEAT FOR THIS EARLY IN THE CALENDAR YEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY **

An incredible (even historic for March) stretch of heat continues through Saturday, with both Grand Island/Hastings airports (the 2 NWS-maintained weather stations for which we issue official Record Event Reports/RERs) likely to experience on Saturday the HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH! In addition, we MIGHT even break records for earliest-annual occurrence of 91+ degrees by AT LEAST 2 WEEKS! Various details follow, organized by site:

-- GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI...temperature records date to 1896) - CURRENT DAILY RECORDS | LATEST FORECAST March 20 (Fri): 84 in 1921 | 89 March 21 (Sat): 83 in 1988 | 95

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH: 90 degrees...occurred NINE times, most recently March 16, 2015

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS: 90 degrees......90 on March 16, 2015 91 degrees......91 on April 4, 1929 92 degrees......92 on April 12, 2022 93-94 degrees...94 on April 15, 2002 95-98 degrees...98 on April 20, 1902 99 degrees......99 on May 14, 1941 and 102 on May 14, 2013 100 degrees.....102 on May 14, 2013

-- HASTINGS, NE (HSI...temperature records date back to 1907) - CURRENT DAILY RECORDS | LATEST FORECAST March 20 (Fri): 82 in 1939 | 89 March 21 (Sat): 87 in 1910 | 94

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH: 90 degrees...March 23, 1910

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS: 90 degrees......90 on March 23, 1910 91-92 degrees...92 on April 3, 1929 93-95 degrees...95 on April 15, 2002 96 degrees......96 on April 23, 1989 97-98 degrees...98 on May 6, 1916 99-100 degrees..100 on May 26, 2012

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for NeWS>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for Ksz005>007-017>019.