textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, but generally isolated coverage with lower end precipitation probabilities (10-20%).

- Increasing thunderstorm chances this weekend, primarily Saturday evening/night (40-60%) and Sunday evening/night (40-60%). At least a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Precipitation is not a sure bet, but is our best chance this week. Hot weekend (mid 80s and 90s).

- Cold front swings through sometime on Monday. 70s behind the front, upper 80s/90 ahead of the front. Precipitation chances slide east of our area.

- Fire weather concerns still possible this weekend behind/west of the dry line, might impact our far western zones depending on dry line location near our western most counties.

UPDATE

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Today... Will finally get 50 degree dew points to advect north into our forecast area today resulting in increasing instability (SB CAPE >2000 J/KG over Kansas). However, there will be a rather strong cap and likely inadequate forcing to produce much convection given the strength of the cap. Can not rule out some elevated showers above the cap, but widespread precipitation is unlikely and thus the lower end 10-20% rain chances. Interesting curved hodographs across our southeastern zones that would favor supercells, but again the cap will likely really limit convection.

Friday... There will again be a pretty strong cap, but we may get hot enough (highs in the 90s) to break the cap with some isolated late day thunderstorms. Again, coverage will likely be sparse, but those that can catch a storm could quickly pick up appreciable rainfall as the winds in the vertical profile are light and these storms will not move very fast. Best chances (still only 20%) favor our eastern and southern zones. SB CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/KG support marginal to slight risk area over our southeastern zones despite weak low level shear profile. Main threats will be hail and wind.

Saturday and Sunday... There is still a lot of uncertainty with the precipitation forecast, but the overall pattern is finally more favorable for a potential widespread appreciable rainfall event given the expected strength of the developing western United States upper trough and increasing low level moisture (60 plus dew points). We just need to see where the frontal boundaries (dry line and warm front) will set up and if we can finally overcome the cap given better forcing as the upper trough nears our area. Better chances for thunderstorms will be during the late evening and overnight hours as the low level jet ramps up. Afternoon heating could get the storms to initially fire and then the low level jet could help to sustain them. It currently appears that both wind shear (>50kts) and instability (>3000 J/KG) will be rather high this weekend making severe weather a possibility. Would not be surprised to see the severe threat level increased as we get closer and better iron out the most favored locations.

Models are currently confident (over 75% likelihood) in a warm/hot weekend with highs in the 80s to around 90 on Saturday and then 90s for Sunday.

Monday... There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding cold frontal passage timing resulting in a huge model temperature spread over the Tri-Cities (25th and 75th percentile highs 71-96). Better rain chances are expected to shift east with the instability/front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A more active pattern is setting up as zonal flow transitions and a trough sets up over the western half of the country this weekend putting the Plains under southwesterly flow aloft.

Thursday-Friday: Southerly surface level flow will be strong, beginning in the overnight hours tonight and continue through Thursday. This will help advect up higher dew point temperatures. Models are quick with this moisture return, but there are some reservations as to how far north the higher dew points will get. Along and ahead of the front, some models indicate that there may be enough moisture transport in a narrow corridor (aided by today's southerly winds over the High Plains) to support thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. The current forecast is dry, but for areas along and west of Highway 183, there is a 15-20% chance for thunderstorms. Instability across the remainder of southern Nebraska looks marginal at best, while the best conditions for strong to severe thunderstorms looks to be across central and eastern Kansas just to the east of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be warm for the end of the work week, but current forecast highs could be slightly overdone and tried to taper them down slightly with this forecast, especially where low level moisture begins to increase across southern and southeastern Nebraska.

Saturday - Monday: The weekend also looks warm, with temps generally in the mid- upper 80s. Confidence is low that the weekend, despite all the rain chances, will be a rainout. The primary concern is that many will not see much rain that the drought stricken area is desperate for. There will be a number of weak waves ahead of the main disturbance that looks to eject northeastward on Monday. These weak waves will bring chances for precipitation and some severe weather to the area for the weekend, the main time period looks to be Saturday night and again Sunday afternoon and overnight.

Uncertainty remains high in the central part of Nebraska/Kansas for where the best low level moisture and surface front will be and thus where thunderstorm activity will fire, especially on Sunday. There is a chance that we could generally be quiet, watching activity in Eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas.

This uncertainty persists for Monday with precipitation and temperatures. If the front has moved through, it could be a much cooler day than is currently indicated in the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for both KEAR/KGRI this forecast period though a plenty of high clouds will pass through the region. Early this afternoon, winds will remain strong and gusty from the gust, at times over 30 knots. However, a weakish surface low/trough moving east will allow winds to drop off nicely by late afternoon, and evening further by evening. Remaining light overnight, winds will shift and swing out of the northeast. No visibility restrictions are expected and just periods of broken/overcast high clouds will pass across the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Today... RH values will be higher (20-30%) and the stronger winds (30-40 mph) will be in the morning when the RH is higher and then the wind is expected to decrease during the afternoon as RH values fall into the 20-30% range.

Friday... RH values will dip again generally around or below 20% (especially western zones), but with lighter winds (<20 mph).

Saturday and Sunday... Southeasterly wind gusts will increase especially on Sunday (30-40 mph) ahead of the next storm system and also bring more moisture/higher RH values (>20%) back into portions of our region. One concern will be where the dry line sets up, which could impact our far western counties. RH values west of the dry line on Sunday could fall below 20%. With the stronger winds on Sunday this could be a big fire weather concern for our far western zones or areas just west of our forecast area.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.