textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- While most of our forecast area will see only widespread low clouds and perhaps some light fog this morning, roughly our western 1/3rd stands a better chance of seeing some localized dense fog - reducing visibility to around 1/4 mile or less. As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the western portion of the area through 11 AM CST.

- Truly measurable precipitation is quite unlikely over the next 24 hours, although some very light drizzle or a stray shower will be possible mainly east of Highway 281 through the afternoon hours, with some partial clearing expected for most late in the day.

- More widespread, and potentially dense, fog is expected to develop across the local area this evening through Thursday morning.

- An approaching upper level disturbance will bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the area late in the day Thursday, continuing on into the evening/overnight hours. There will be the potential for some storms to be strong to marginally severe, and the entire area remains in a marginal risk for severe weather.

UPDATE

Issued at 345 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Another cloudy start to the day is being observed across the local area with widespread stratus visible on satellite imagery this morning. Some patchy dense fog is continuing to be advertised by mesoscale models through the morning hours, although truly dense fog will be limited to our far western areas near the edge of the stratus deck over the next few hours. So far, only a couple locations have seen visibilities drop as low as 1/2SM in fog, but this could expand a bit across the advised area closer to sunrise. As a result, have no plans to trim or cancel the dense fog advisory at this time.

Later today, expect at least partial sunshine to return from west to east as we transition through the daytime hours, with temperatures likely to warm about 10 degrees above yesterdays readings by late afternoon. With the clearing skies and elevated dewpoints, expect potentially more widespread and dense fog to re-develop across the entire area tonight, with the 6Z HRRR showing a fairly wide strip of dense fog developing across the heart of the local area overnight tonight. SREF probs are also around 50 percent for fog development tonight, with areas of fog subsequently added to the forecast for Thursday morning as a result.

As we transition into the daytime hours Thursday, the focus will shift to the approaching upper level disturbance crossing the intermountain west, with surging moisture ahead of this disturbance potentially leading to thunderstorm development induced from the LLJ Thursday night. Given the elevated instability, could see some marginally severe storms across the local area Thursday evening/night, with hail around the size of quarters and 60 mph winds both possible with the strongest storms. Latest SPC outlook has not changed much for the local area, with a marginal risk for severe weather continuing to be advertised across both south central Nebraska and north central Kansas Thursday. No change in thinking to the remainder of the forecast period from the previous discussion below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 407 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Currently through tonight...

Been an overall quiet day across the forecast area, with satellite imagery showing very different sky cover from one end to the other...across the west seeing mostly sunny skies, in central and especially eastern areas, socked in with low level stratus. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show an area of low pressure gradually working its way across northern CO, with a mid-upper level trough axis extending east-northeast through NE up toward the Great Lakes. At the surface, the forecast area is sitting between broad high pressure spread across portions of the Central Plains up into the Great Lakes region and deepening low pressure over the TX panhandle...bringing more NNErly winds to the forecast area, with speeds have mainly been 10MPH or less. Not surprisingly, the stubborn cloud cover hasn't done any favors to temperatures, keeping those areas mainly in the mid 40s...vs further west in the sun have reach into the 50s and even some low 60s.

The rest of today on into tonight...models are in good agreement showing that CO upper low continuing to slide east, main question will be with whether or not we see any precipitation. Most models backed off on QPF...but a few models, including some hi-res, still show the potential for at least some isolated/scattered sprinkles or showers lingering this evening and tonight. These chances are mainly focused across portions of south central NE...and not expecting any notable amounts out of anything that does fall. Expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies...with a return of light/variable winds as a surface ridge axis pushes south through the area. Not out of the question that some patchy fog could develop later tonight with those light winds, most models currently showing visibilities not dropping as low as this morning.

Mid to late work week...

Looking at Wednesday, overall precipitation chances backed off, with small chances (20 percent) now just confined to SErn portions of the forecast area. Models remain in good agreement showing that upper level disturbance current over CO continuing to slide east right through the heart of the area...but keep the better precip chances to our SSE. Some models suggest the 20 percent chances currently in the forecast are too much...if that trend holds, completely removing PoPs is not out of the question. Winds expected to remain on the lighter side, starting out the day variable, turning more southerly through the afternoon ahead of deepening low pressure across the High Plains. Sky cover is once again expected to diminish from west to east...but similar to today, confidence in the exact timing of the clearing is not high. Highs range from the mid 50s in the east to lower 60s in the west...confidence again lower in the east due to uncertainty with the cloud cover.

Expecting at least the first half of the day on Thursday to be dry, potentially most of the day. Precipitation chances will be on the increase during the afternoon hours, with the overall best chances looking to be after 00Z. Models showing another upper level low pressure system working its way into the Pac NW during the day on Wednesday, digging south with time, ending up in the Desert SW region by the end of the day on Thursday. During the evening/overnight hours, larger scale lift is picking up ahead of this upper level troughing, aided by increasing moisture/warm advection pushing north thanks to a strengthening southerly low- level jet. These are not just better chances for rain, but thunderstorms as well...and with models showing more instability also working its way in from the south and decent deep layer shear, some of these storms being on the strong to severe side are not out of the question. The entire forecast area is included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area (main concern being hail), but models today have trended that better potential across roughly the SErn half of the forecast area...will see how things trend over the next 2 days. Outside of the rain/storm chances increasing through the day, expecting breezy southerly winds to develop as surface low pressure deepens over eastern CO...with highs climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s.

Precip chances Thursday-Thursday night are tied to lift out ahead of the main upper level system...chances in the forecast for Friday are tied to the passage of that system itself. Confidence in chances through Friday night are not high...as there are some notable differences between models with the strength of the system and exactly where it tracks. Some keep it a more closed system, tracking it a touch further NW and potentially bringing a dry slot to the forecast area, resulting in little precip...others are more open, tracking more over the area and bringing better chances. The accompanying surface cold front is also working its way through the region on Friday, not doing any favors for confidence in high temperatures...current forecast has 50s in the NW to near 70 in the SE.

This weekend and on...

Forecast for this weekend into the start of the new work week is dry, with models showing northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of Friday's system turning more zonal with time. The 'coolest' day of this period is Saturday, with highs mainly in the mid-60s...with forecast highs climbing into the 70s by Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 515 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR Stratus continues to linger at the terminals early this morning with some IFR stratus/VSBYS being observed at spots around the area. As a result, went ahead and added a short term tempo group for IFR potential through 04/15Z...with improving conditions thereafter. Could see mostly clear skies by late afternoon, with VFR conditions then expected to continue through around 05/09Z...when some MVFR stratus/VSBYS are anticipated to return. Will need to monitor fog development again this evening as models hinting at potential LIFR conditions towards daybreak Thursday. Overall...winds will be light at less than 10 KTS...predominantly out of the south...through the period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for NEZ039-046- 060-061-072-073-082-083. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for KSZ005-017.