textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Very near term risk of strong/severe thunderstorms within the next few hours over 6-8 counties, with hail as the main hazard.

- Windy and drier today, after the early morning thunderstorms, as a cold front sweeps across the area.

- Little up and down temperature wise Friday into the weekend but it will be cooler on the weekend with at least some showers/storm chance favoring later Friday/Saturday.

- More summer-like temperatures by mid next week and trending a bit drier overall.

UPDATE

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Satellite and observations depict a nice upper trough rounding its way into northern Wyoming. This feature will drive quickly east across the Dakotas and be the catalyst the first 12 hours of this forecast period (early Thursday morning). After that, generally speaking, a tepid northwest flow pattern will eventually bring cooler temperatures for the weekend and some chance for rain. The forecast rounds out with upper level ridging and more summerlike temperatures by mid next week.

Early today, we await a strong low level jet now in central Kansas to push north into areas east of Highway 281. As that upper wave and a favorable H250 jet streak move across the area, they will tap into strong moisture transport and trigger elevated thunderstorms around 3 AM or so. There has been some variety in hi-res models in terms of intensity/location of the storms, through the overall trend of development remains roughly along/near Highway 6 and I-80, and closer to the Hastings/Grand Island areas. Strong shear, plenty of instability (eventually) and steep mid-level lapse rates should result in fairly rapid develop and the potential for storms to become strong/severe quickly. The main risk is large hail around 2" in diameter, though some stones could be bigger. There is an outside risk of localized flooding mainly from training of storms as they layout in an east- west fashion. However, we expect a pretty quick eastward move and only 2-3 hours of more intense storms before they push east of York/Fillmore/Polk counties by 5-6 AM. This is a very limited area event, maybe 6-8 counties, but could be briefly intense. Once those storms move east, we may see some additional non severe showers/storms linger through mid-morning across south central Nebraska along/ahead of a cold front, which is now gathering itself in the Nebraska Panhandle.

The rest of the day today will be marked by strong west northwest winds gusting up to 40 mph through early evening, but also solidifying a return to drier air as dewpoints drop to the upper 30s and 40s. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today and back to the upper 70s/lower 80s, or slightly below normal. Winds will drop quickly tonight but rebound to a southerly directly by Friday afternoon and push temperatures back into the middle and upper 80s before the next cool down.

Saturday brings a sharp change with a cold front pushing quickly across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas early in the day. Don't be surprised if the current forecast of highs reaching the lower-middle 80s is lowered with time as a stiff north wind ushers in a nice June cool down. Depending on the exact timing of the front, showers and some thunderstorms are possible later Friday night and Saturday, but they would favor locations east of Highway 281 moreso than west. There is some uncertainty with the overall rain chance as some models have very little precipitation, while others linger precipitation deeper into the day. That uncertainty translates to later in the day as the front will be a focus for stronger storms in the afternoon and evening southeast of a Geneva to Smith Center line. However, some models, such as the European Model, really push the front through and take the strong/severe storm risk into eastern and central Kansas. Right now, the forecast for Saturday kind of splits the middle of everything (except the stiff breeze) so expect fine-tuning of the specific details to emerge in the next 24-36 hours.

Post frontal, Sunday looks looks like a decent day for most areas with lighter winds, low dewpoints (low 40s) and comfortable temperatures in the 70s. The lingering northwest flow will result in a mix of clouds and sun. Any time we are in northwest flow this time of year, the risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms seems like its always there, even with dry low levels and limited instability. That looks like the case Sunday as an upper way moves into the area in the afternoon which could spark those showers. The forecast reflects that small chance in north central Kansas Sunday afternoon, but don't be surprised again if more of the area shares in those afternoon showers.

Technically the forecast is dry after Sunday, though the aforementioned northwest flow is still influencing the area into Tuesday. Just throwing that out there, mainly for Monday as some mid-range models still have a "sprinkly" potential. We should start a limited warmup Monday and Tuesday by getting back to normal. After that, upper level heights increase Wednesday and Thursday suggesting a drier trend and temperatures pushing back into the 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Currently...

After a bout of severe weather resulting in a notable swath of straight-line wind gusts into central portions of the forecast area Tuesday evening...today has brought a much more quiet day. Upper air and satellite data show west-southwesterly flow in place across the area...set up on the southern side of troughing extending back to the north into central Canada. At the surface, the upper level troughing sliding east is pushing a surface cool front south across the Central Plains...with latest obs showing it having moved through all but the far SE corner of the forecast area. Not really a significant push of cooler air with this front...it's more notable features are the switch to at times gusty NW winds and a drop in dewpoints. We were sitting under widespread dewpoints in the low-mid 70s at this time Tuesday...dewpoints currently behind the front are in the 40s-50s. Satellite showing no shortage of sun across the area...the exception being some CU developing across SErn portions of the area. For the rest of this afternoon...models have been consistent showing thunderstorms developing remaining SE of the forecast area, across eastern KS into MO/IA...and that's what satellite/radar trends have shown over the last hour.

This evening and tonight...

Overall, hasn't been any significant changes in the overall thinking...with the evening hours expected to remain dry. Models continue to show increasing potential for thunderstorm development closer to/mainly after midnight tonight and lingering into the early morning hours. Another wave of mid- upper level shortwave energy looks to move out onto the Plains tonight...with an increasing southerly low-level jet developing. Models showing this LLJ ramping up to around 45-50kts...with the best convergence/lift along its nose pushing north into the forecast area. Hi-res models have varied slightly on the exact timing...with most favoring anytime after 06- 07Z. Also some uncertainty with the exact location/coverage...most models have kept the better potential mainly along/north of I-80 and along/east of HWY 281...but there have been a few just a touch further south (closer to HWY 6) and west (at least isolated back into our western fringes). Expectation that any storms will have the potential to be severe, with models showing MUCAPE values exceeding 2500 j/kg pushing north with time and good deeper layer shear...and mostly likely remaining elevated set up north of the sfc boundary. Large hail (potentially near/larger than golf balls), damaging winds and heavy rain look to be the primary hazards. The brunt of activity is expected to shift east by sunrise Thursday.

Thursday and on into early next week...

Early Thursday morning, mainly 12-15Z...not out of the question there could be some isolated activity lingering across NNErn portions of the forecast area...but that is currently expected to continue pushing east. Once it does...the forecast dries out for the rest of the day Thursday on into Friday. Models showing northwestelry flow aloft on Thursday in the wake of the latest shortwave disturbance...turning more zonal on Friday across a good chunk of the CONUS, set up between high pressure centered over srn TX but spread out both east and west...and a larger low/broad toughing over central Canada. A reinforcing sfc cool front is expected to push through the region late tonight/Thurs AM...ushering in stronger NW winds for the day on Thurs and cooler temps. Gusts exceeding 30 MPH are expected...with afternoon highs topping out in the mid 70s-low 80s. Those gusty winds are then expected turn back to the south for Friday...with warmer temps climbing back into the mid-upper 80s.

At least periodic thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for the weekend into early next week...but confidence in the exact timing/track of the upper level shortwave disturbances driving them isn't the highest at this point. Some models show the potential for the first to bring chances in already late Friday night into the daytime hours on Sat...with questions then arising with the potential for strong/severe storms later in the afternoon/evening hours, and if that could impact at least SErn portions of the area. SPC Day 4 15 percent area currently clips our SE areas...will see how things trend the next couple of days. Additional disturbances keep generally low chance PoPs in the forecast through Mon night...with things potentially drying out mid-week. Temps Sat through Wed are up and down...with 80s-90s Sat dropping into the low- mid 70s for Sun- Mon, climbing back into the 80s-90s for Wed.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The primary concern is breezy northwesterly winds throughout the remainder of the day today. As the sun sets and mixing decreases, so should the breezy northwesterly winds. Winds overnight will decrease and eventually become variable. By morning, southerly winds will return to both terminals with winds between 10-18kts. Skies are generally going to be clear with some high clouds possible late. VFR conditions expected.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.