textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Though a few showers/rumbles of thunder impact northern areas the rest of this afternoon...most locations are dry through the evening hours.

- Better chances for precipitation will slide south late tonight and into the daytime hours on Tuesday. Even this close in time, there are still a number of differences between models with the overall timing of this precipitation pushing south and the coverage across the forecast area. There will be the potential for some storms to be strong-severe on Tuesday...especially across southern areas if activity hasn't already pushed through by mid-late afternoon. Far SWrn areas are in the SPC Day 2 Slight Risk, rest of the area in the Marginal Risk area.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances look to continue on through the end of the work week, with models drier for the upcoming weekend.

- High temperatures mainly in the 70s stick around through the end of the work week...with upper 80s-mid 90s working back by Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Currently through this evening...

Overall been quiet across the forecast area through the mid- afternoon hours, with satellite imagery showing partly-mostly cloudy skies with quite a bit of low-mid level CU around. In the upper levels...the area sits under west-northwesterly flow, set up between broad high pressure spread across the southern CONUS and a couple of areas of low pressure over central/eastern portions of Canada. Seeing a few shortwave disturbances embedded in the main flow...one working into the southeastern CONUS, others over the High Plains and Nrn Rockies. At the surface, winds across the forecast area are southeasterly, with broad high pressure over eastern NE/KS northward into the MN region...with low pressure/troughing along the High Plains. Radar showing a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder working east toward northern portions of the forecast area...but the main focus of storm development is further west, along the sfc front and upper forcing. Models continue to show this western activity working its way east the rest of this afternoon and evening...but are in pretty good agreement showing it not making enough eastward progress to have much impact on our area between the loss of daytime heating and moving into an area with less instability to work with.

Tonight into Tuesday...

Further into the overnight hours tonight and early Tuesday morning, models showing one of the upper level lows mentioned above moving further east...ending up near the MT/ND/Can border by 12Z Tuesday. Showers and storms are expected to develop along the southward extending troughing with time...and have precip chances ramping up after 06Z, and especially after 09Z tonight. Unfortunately, even being this close to the event...there is still plenty of uncertainties and lowered confidence in how activity evolves as we get into the daytime hours on Tuesday. There are still quite a few differences between models...some showing more one main push through on the earlier side of things, others linger at least scattered activity around most of the day. Because of the uncertainty, forecast precipitation chances are pretty broad...highest PoPs are currently during the morning hours across northern areas, with more uncertainty further in the day. Though there are some questions with the timing of when things arrive/move through...most models have the brunt of activity pushing south of the CWA by evening (some are just quicker pushing it through than others). Not out of the question that some storms could be strong to severe, even through the first half of the day...that potential would increase if it's a slower progression or there are more breaks in precip/clouds that can allow for better instability to develop/work with. The further south you go, the better that potential for more instability is...thus only far SWrn portions of the CWA are included in the SPC Day 2 Slight Risk area...the rest of the area is in the Marginal Risk area. 60 MPH wind/quarter hail would be the main threats for the earlier activity...but later in the afternoon, storms with gusts closer to 70 MPH and larger hail would be possible.

Wednesday on through the weekend...

Looking at the mid-late work week time frame...models showing little overall change in the upper level pattern. Flow across the region looks to remain largely zonal/progressive...with periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional thunderstorm chances to the forecast area. Didn't make any changes to the NBM PoPs, which are focused mainly in the late Wed night-Thu night time frame. As we get into the upcoming weekend...current models showing a drier trend, a bit of a break from these upper level disturbances, even with pattern turning more southwesterly as a larger-scale low pressure system moves onto the West Coast.

As far as temperatures go...confidence in how temps pan out for Tuesday is on the lower side due to the precip potential during the day, but most spots are forecast to reach the mid-70s. The Wed-Fri time frame look to remain in the 70s for much of the area...with highs climbing into the weekend. Mainly 80s are forecast for Saturday, with Sunday in the upper 80s-mid 90s for most.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next several hours before an area of SHRAs and TSRAs moves in across the terminals from the NW. Expect near MVFR CIGS to reach KEAR by 10Z and KGRI by 12Z...with a chance for TSRAs continuing through the late afternoon hours. CIGS are expected to become predominantly MVFR by 23/22Z...with some light BR possible near the very tail end of the period. Winds, outside TSRAs, will be mostly light at less than 8 KTS out of the SE through the period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.