textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional rain and storms expected overnight. Severe storms are not likely but still possible (20% chance).

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for the whole forecast area until 7 AM Sunday.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Rain and storms continue across portions of the area with most of the previous storms now out of the forecast area. Additional storms are developing to the west of the area and moving eastward. These storms are mainly across the northern half of Nebraska. Additional storm development may occur across southern portions of Nebraska. There is some storms across northwest Kansas that are moving eastward as well. The area most likely to see more storms this evening and tonight is from along I-80 and northward. Although all areas of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas have at least a 50% chance of additional rain and/or storms this evening and tonight. The severe weather threat is diminishing; however, an isolated strong to severe storm is still possible. Rain and storms will exit the area from west to east with the remainder of the convection likely exiting the area around sunrise tomorrow. The whole forecast area remains in a Flood Watch until 7 AM. Many areas have already received around 3 to 4+ inches of rainfall so any additional rain in these areas will likely cause flooding issues. Areas that have not received much or any rainfall will likely receive some overnight. Low temperatures overnight are expected to be in the 50s and 60s.

Some additional showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm may develop (around a 15% to 30% chance) Sunday morning and afternoon across portions of the area. Storm chances increase Sunday afternoon and evening as the atmosphere becomes more unstable (areas of CAPE above 2,000 J/kg, 0 to 6 km wind shear of around 30 to 50 knots, and an increase of upper lift as a shortwave passes overhead). Models are showing storms moving in from the west Sunday evening. The forecast area is in a marginal (level 1 out of 5) to slight (level 2 out of 5) severe weather risk for Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest risk will be in western and southern portions of the forecast area. Large hail (up to ping pong ball size), wind gusts up to 60 MPH, and localized flooding (rain falling over already saturated soils) will be possible. High temperatures Sunday are expected to mostly be in the 70s and 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

-- QUICK UP FRONT "ADMIN NOTE": Given earlier and upcoming severe storm/hydro concerns, the remainder of this discussion will be HEAVILY weighted on just these next 24-30 hours or so.

-- SHORTER TERM FOCUS SOLELY ON THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS (through Sunday evening): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 PM: As was strongly suggested by higher-res models runs from 24 hours ago (even though some later runs incorrectly "backed off" somewhat), much of the daytime hours featured a slow-moving complex of elevated strong to marginally-severe storms, that initiated in a north-northwest to south-southeast axis across our western CWA earlier this morning, then gradually/slowly expanded east as the day went on, while mostly ending except for limited redevelopment along its western flank. This was a classic recipe for marginally-severe hail (up to quarter size), but more so localized heavy rain...with a roughly 20-30 mile stripe across the heart of our Nebraska CWA realizing a solid 1.50-3.50".

As of this writing, only weak storms are ongoing within some of our far northern/eastern counties, while slightly west of our CWA, robust and more surface-based severe storms have erupted over southwest NE/northwest KS, in a potent environment characterized by at least 1500-2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and around 50KT of effective shear. Meanwhile, our "silver lining" to having so much daytime convection is that most of our CWA is either relatively stable in the lower levels (or at least still plenty capped), with the vast majority of available CAPE of the elevated variety...largely muting any kind of shorter term threat for damaging winds/tornadoes...but keeping the same marginally-severe hail and heavy rain concerns in play.

Due to convection, quite a range in daytime high temps today, from only 60s north...to low-mid 80s south.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Leaning heavily on higher-res models (particularly HRRR/RAP), while there is little doubt that widespread rain/thunderstorms will overtake our entire CWA with many areas seeing 2+ rounds of storms or storm complexes (due to an upper disturbance impinging upon at least modest instability, increasing low level jet later tonight, etc.), there are still question marks about just HOW SEVERE our storms might be. In short, expect the MAJORITY of severe storm potential (especially damaging winds/possible QLCS tornadoes) to target counties along/especially south of the KS border...where the airmass is least contaminated by earlier-day convection. Especially between 7 PM-Midnight, a storm complex/possible mesoscale convective system (MCS) is most favored to track east-southeastward across our southern CWA, while more elevated activity develops across our north. Post- midnight, another complex of storms (probably at least slightly elevated?) could track southeastward through much of our CWA...evolving from separate severe storm development that will occur over northwest NE and the Panhandle.

Finally, between 5-7 AM Sunday, the back end of any widespread storms are expected to clear out of our far southern/southeast counties.

- MOST OF SUNDAY DAYTIME (through around 4 PM): In the wake of widespread overnight convection, MOST of the day is likely dry/thunderstorm free with an airmass slow to "recover". Surface winds will also turn northerly in response to the main surface low tracking to our south mainly across central KS. Afternoon high temps aimed from low-mid 70s north to low 80s south and far southwest.

- LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING (after 4/5 PM): Despite a less concerning setup than this evening-overnight, at least isolated to perhaps scattered storm development is likely as an upper disturbance dropping south into northern NE interacts with a (by-now) more destabilized airmass featuring at least 1000-2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and 40-50KT of deep layer shear. While coverage will likely be fairly limited, a few severe storms with mainly a hail/wind threat appear probable...likely most favoring our northern/western counties (versus our eastern/southern counties). However, this Sunday threat will be better analyzed once we get through tonight's round of more widepsread convection.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR/MVFR ceilings have continued across the area this morning as a band of showers continues off to the east. These lower ceilings are expected to continue throughout the TAF period. However, there is a little uncertainty about if they will be low MVFR or IFR, hence the SCT IFR layer and the BKN MVFR layer. Winds are expected to remain easterly through the afternoon, with gusts up to 20kts possible.

Another round of isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening, mainly between 01-05Z. However, confidence in thunderstorms actually impacting the terminals is too low to include in the TAF, especially as recent model guidance keeps these thunderstorms to the East of KEAR/KGRI. A couple of models do have weak, scattered showers moving into the area during this timeframe, but again, confidence is not overly high on this possibility.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Quick summary of last 12 hours: Although MOST of our forecast area (CWA) has received well under 0.50" of rain so far today, a concentrated 20-30 mile wide stripe of much higher amounts mainly 1.50-3.50" drenched parts of our Nebraska CWA mainly along a diagonal (northwest-southeast oriented )stripe centered from Pleasanton-Wood-River-Clay Center-Bruning (and including Hastings). Within this stripe, there was a fair amount of mainly shorter-term flooding of fields, some rural roads and small creeks.

- Looking ahead next 12-14 hours: Fortunately, the vast majority of the aforementioned stripe of heavy rain has been dry now for at least 2-4 hours, but with the potential for much of the CWA to see a widespread 1-3" yet this evening-overnight (ON TOP OF what has already fallen in some places), at least small portions of the CWA could end up with 4-6" 24-hour totals by sunrise Sunday. Due to the potential for at least localized/short-term flooding to occur almost ANYWHERE in our CWA through tonight, the Flood Watch that was initially issued yesterday has since been expanded to include our entire CWA...officially valid through 7 AM Sunday, by which time any overnight rain should have all-but-departed our CWA...with any ongoing flooding by then covered by potential Flood Advisories/Warnings.

CLIMATE

Issued at 516 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- New June 20th Record Rainfall For Hastings (HSI): With plenty of the calendar day yet to go (through Midnight CST), Hastings Municipal Airport (HSI) has ALREADY BROKEN its somewhat "weak" June 20th rainfall record with 1.58" (previous record was 1.46" in 1967).

As for Grand Island Airport, the ASOS there has officially measured 1.03" so far today...still shy of the June 20th record of 1.92" set in 2010. However, this could also easily be broken by the end of the calendar day.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-046>049- 060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-017>019.