textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Pesky light drizzle/freezing drizzle may still impact areas mainly east of Highway 281 this morning. With temperatures climbing to near freezing the past few hours, impacts from any drizzle are anticipated to be minimal. - After a cloudy, but mostly dry afternoon, drizzle and widespread fog returns tonight. Temperatures should be warm enough that freezing drizzle will not be an issue, but dense fog looks like a real possibility.

- Wednesday afternoon-Thursday daytime should mainly be a dry break as we reside "in between" low pressure systems. After a few very "gloomy" days, sunshine and warmer temps will also return. High temps Thursday will top out in the 70s!

- Our next systems arrives Thursday night-Friday. This system should be warm enough for predominantly rain, with some signs of thunderstorm potential (especially Thurs night-Fri AM)...MAYBE even enough instability for some small hail.

- Next weekend currently looks mainly dry in the wake of the departing Friday system

UPDATE

Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

An expansive area of low level stratus can be seen spreading across the entire forecast area early this morning. So far dense fog and freezing drizzle have been elusive, and confidence of either is on the low side. That said, need to get through around 9-10 AM to completely eliminate the potential as temperatures climb solidly above freezing later this morning. Looking at area road cams, no signs of any precip or dense fog as of 3 AM, but if something were to develop, models indicate it would be closer to sunrise, so we are not completely out of the woods just yet. That said, model soundings look like they are hanging onto a shallow dry layer that would eliminate drizzle/fog formation, and current temp/dewpoint spreads suggest this to be the case. So leaning against any significant impacts this morning.

For today, clouds should lift some this afternoon, but gloomy skies will remain, with ceilings expected to fall again this evening as the sun angle goes down and continued moisture advection from the southeast helps bring up dewpoints overnight. With the increasing moisture and favorable southeasterly flow, expect widespread fog formation overnight, with dense fog a distinct possibility. Looking at SREF probs for fog near 100 percent Tuesday morning, would not be surprised to see a dense fog advisory eventually being necessary.

As the next disturbance crosses the area Tuesday afternoon/night, a better chance for some light showers and precip accumulations looks possible across the area with 0.1" to 0.25" of total rainfall accumulation looking good for much of the local area, especially for our south central Nebraska counties. No significant changes to previous thinking beyond Tuesday night to highlight this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- In terms of forecast changes worth mentioning: 1) High temps have trended down a bit Mon-Wed due to extensive cloud cover/periodic drizzle.

2) Limited areas of "patchy fog" have been introduced to tonight-Monday AM, and higher confidence "areas of fog" have been introduced to Mon night-Tues AM. Cannot rule out at least localized dense fog.

- As for "big picture comments", our weather over the next week appears to be coming into a little better focus versus 24 hours ago, with our main/potential issues already covered in the Key Messages above. In addition to the aforementioned light freezing drizzle potential tonight-Monday AM and fog potential the next few nights, our next possible concern looks to be thunderstorm potential mainly Thurs night-Fri AM. Although too early to have much confidence in details, current model data suggests there could be enough elevated instability to support a few stronger storms with mainly a hail threat. Honestly, if this system slows down much at all from current projections, Friday afternoon could perhaps even feature a very early-season severe storm threat (as of right now this appears to mainly focus slightly to our east-southeast (as supported by latest NSSL ML Total Severe Probability guidance).

- One thing NOT currently in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID), but at least bears watching is fire weather potential for Thursday. While the damp/drizzle conditions earlier in the week could ease the fire threat a little, finer fuels (grasses) will dry out quickly. Southerly gusts of 20+ MPH currently appear probably for Thursday afternoon, but as of now relative humidity (RH) looks to remain well above our critical 20% threshold (albeit somewhat close in our far western zones).

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sun. March 8): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM: It's been a fairly busy day around here, as the most aggressive model solutions from the last couple of days ended up being "most right" about the concentrated batch of mixed wintry precip (primarily a sleet/snow mix with perhaps a touch of freezing rain) that started off in very light/non-impactful fashion across much of our western/northern CWA this morning, but then really "took off" within especially our southeastern quadrant this afternoon. Based on 511 road reports, there is fairly widespread coverage of partially-to-completely covered roads with either ice/slush/snow within much of the Advisory area. Speaking of which, earlier this morning we ended up issuing a formal Winter Weather Advisory initially for 7 of our southeastern-most counties, but then earlier this afternoon tacked on Clay/Fillmore counties as the northern fringes of steady precip also got into those counties as well. Thanks to a tongue of weak elevated instability nosing northward into our southeast CWA, especially some of our KS counties also experienced several lightning strikes from non-severe storms. SIDE NOTE: on top of all the actual WEATHER going on...a 4.1 magnitude earthquake (fairly strong for our area) occurred in Webster County around 1 PM! (see USGS website for more details).

Back to weather: In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm the low amplitude/quick moving shortwave trough traversing the Central Plains that sparked our round of wintry precip. At the surface (and as so often occurs in these setups), persistent easterly breezes (mainly sustained 10-15 MPH with slightly higher gusts), along with extensive cloud cover over most of our CWA, has helped hold temps a bit below forecast values (most of our CWA on track to top out no warmer than 30-35. However, more sun has broken out especially over the western 1/4th of our CWA to boost things into the upper 30s-low 40s.

- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Although the Winter Weather Advisory in our southeast officially runs until 6 PM, latest radar data/short term model trends strongly suggest that things are moving out pretty steadily (most lingering precip now confined to Jewell/Thayer counties), and will probably cancel most counties once this discussion is completed. Any lingering/steadier precip should vacate even our extreme east-southeast edges no later than 5-6 PM.

- LATER THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: As the night wears on, light east-southeasterly breezes and moist/upslope low level flow will allow low stratus to persist and or/move into essentially our entire forecast area (probably arriving to far western zones last). While not expected to be a "major deal", an analysis of low-level cloud thickness/relative humidity via RAP model suggests that very light freezing drizzle could develop mainly post-midnight and mainly within counties along/east of Highway 281 (farther west, moisture depth is less supportive of freezing drizzle). Right now, freezing drizzle is only considered a POSSIBILITY (not a "sure thing") and thus no formal Advisories are in effect, but this will need monitored closely. Otherwise, at least patchy areas of fog are looking possible overnight, with latest HRRR painting the greatest fog potential within counties along/south of I-80. Sometimes models "over-do" fog under low stratus, but with today's precipitation and light breezes, it cannot be ruled out (including the possibility of localized dense fog). Low temps tonight are aimed upper 20s most areas (clouds holding up reading from falling far), except colder low 20s far west/north where the night will start off clearest.

- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: For the morning hours, we will see a continuation of at least patchy fog potential (mainly counties along/south of I-80, along with the aforementioned potential for light freezing drizzle mainly along/east of Hwy 281. Fortunately, by 10 AM temperatures should warm above freezing, turning any freezing drizzle to plain/non-freezing drizzle. For the afternoon, while some very patchy/lingering drizzle cannot be ruled out, opted to actually carry a dry forecast as it should mainly just be a very cloudy/cool and somewhat breezy day with sustained southeast winds 10-15 MPH/gusts up to 15-25 MPH). Given the expectation of extensive low clouds, high temps were nudged down a few degrees..most areas now aimed 41-45...except upper 40s possible extreme west (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas).

Monday night, the potential for more widespread (mainly NON- freezing) drizzle and areas of fog (possibly some dense) really ramps up as the low-level further saturate in the presence of light east-southeasterly breezes. Although actual rain amounts will not be significant (drizzle rarely is), our official precip chances (PoPs) are also likely not nearly high enough to convey the very high probability of drizzle. Low temps mainly 33-39 degrees (slightly above freezing), but far north/northwest counties COULD drop just below freezing so light freezing drizzle potential will need monitored.

- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: Although we could end up getting some steadier showers as a mid level shortwave trough passes overhead (especially Tues evening- overnight), precip type for especially most of the daytime hours should continue as steady/widespread drizzle...with areas of fog likely lasting until at least Noon as well. As was the case for Monday, high temps were nudged down slightly, now mainly mid- upper 40s at most.

- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: The vast majority of our CWA will likely be dry for the vast majority of these 36 hours, as we end up "in between" systems. Our official forecast still carries some small rain chances Wednesday daytime-evening, but latest NAM/GFS really lean toward the dry side. Sunshine should also make a triumphant return Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with high temps responding accordingly (highs mainly upper 50s-low 60s Wednesday and upper 60s-low 70s Thursday...possibly mid 70s southwest. As touched on above, will have to watch for possible fire weather concerns as southerly breezes pick up Thursday.

- THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT: Although far too early to "count on" any details, confidence is at least growing in the overall timing/arrival of our next upper system. Rain showers/some thunderstorms (MAYBE a few strong?) appear likely mainly Thurs night-Fri AM, with a cold front then charging through during the day Friday and in theory shunting any Friday afternoon thunderstorm threat at least slightly to our east-southeast. Our far northern/western zones could flirt with catching some snow on the backside of this system, but right now this MAINLY looks to focus at least slightly north- through-west of our CWA. High temps Friday could vary more than currently advertised depending on frontal position, but are currently aimed from low-mid 50s north/west to low-mid 60s south/southeast.

- SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Although our official forecast technically clips some of our KS counties with some very "iffy" slight rain chances, the latest ECMWF/GFS strongly support our going dry forecast for at least the vast majority of our CWA. High temps currently aimed near-60 Saturday and then warmer mid 60s-low 70s for Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant aviation impacts LIKELY through Tuesday AM due to LIFR stratus and fog.

CIGs have been running a bit lower than expected - more IFR than MVFR - so far today, which probably forbodes conditions for tonight. As such, have moved up timing of LIFR CIGs to around midnight, and this may still be a few hours too late. LIFR VSBYs should follow within a few hours of the CIGs. Latest NBM progs show 80-90%+ for IFR conditions for both GRI and EAR, and 60-70% for LIFR conditions. This is pretty high for around here for a large blend such as the NBM...so confidence for such bad conditions is abnormally high. Winds will be SE to NE and on the modest side at around 10kt, or less, through the period.

Mixing remains weak into Tuesday AM, so any improvement will be slow and likely not until after 15Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.