textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will continue to push south through the area the rest of tonight, expected to clear the forecast area by sunrise. This front will bring an abrupt shift to northerly winds, which will have the potential to gust over 45 MPH with the initial passage. Red Flag Warning currently goes through 4AM, with the cold front expected to bring cooler temps/raising relative humidity values, though winds will be stronger.

- Notably cooler temperatures area expected for today. Following Saturday's record-breaking highs in the 90s, highs today are closer to normal in the mid 50s to low-mid 60s.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon, gusty north winds continue through the day, with relative humidity values are currently forecast to bottom out in the 25-30 percent range. Critical levels are at/below 20 percent, so decided to hold off on issuing a Red Flag Warning...but will be monitoring trends closely this morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Currently...

Conditions continue to be dry across the area tonight...main concern remains with the passage of a cold front currently working its way south toward the forecast area. Looking at the upper levels, flow has transitioned to more zonal in nature across the region, thanks to shortwave disturbances passing through the Pac NW/Nrn Rockies...satellite imagery showing more upper level clouds bringing partly cloudy skies. A strong surface cold front continues to work its way south through NE...and is expected to push through the entire forecast area by sunrise. An abrupt switch in winds to the north will accompany this front...as will the potential for gusts exceeding 45 MPH. A few gusts closer to 55 MPH are not out of the question. No changes made to the Red Flag Warning, which runs through 4AM...relative humidity values are expected to rise with cooler air behind the front.

Rest of today...

Overall, no notable changes were made to the forecast...with the main stories being with the much cooler temps and continued gusty winds. Models remain in good agreement showing the overall strongest winds/gusts will be with the initial passage of the cold front and linger through the first half of the day...with things gradually tapering off from north to south through the afternoon hours. After record-breaking heat on Saturday with highs in the 90s...much cooler highs are forecast for today, and they're actually just closer to normal for this time of year. Highs are forecast to top out in the mid-upper 50s across most of south central NE, with low-mid 60s near/south of the NE/KS state line. The cooler temperatures are currently forecast to help keep relative humidity values from dropping to critical fire weather levels this afternoon (at/below 20 percent)...but with the continued dry air mass and gusty winds, near- critical conditions will be possible for especially the southern half of the forecast area...where forecast relative humidity values dropping to 25 to 30 MPH will be possible. With the current forecast looking to be on the warmer/drier side of things and not resulting in critical levels, decided to hold off on issuing a Red Flag Warning at this point...but will be monitoring obs/model trends closely this morning.

Tonight into Monday...

Not expecting any notable changes in the upper level pattern through Monday, with models remaining in good agreement showing continued generally zonal flow across the region. Models continue to show the potential for a weak upper level shortwave disturbance to move out onto the Central Plains late tonight into the day on Monday...bringing the potential for rain to the forecast area. At this point, the best chances look to mainly be across south central NE...but models still have some differences with the coverage of activity, so chances remain low around 20-30 percent. Unfortunately, these chances also don't look to bring notable amounts.

Surface high pressure passing through the area tonight brings light and at times variable winds...eventually turning southerly as the high moves east and low pressure deepens over the High Plains. This will bring increasing SSErly winds during the day on Monday, especially to the western half of the forecast area, where gusts of 20-30 MPH will be possible. With high temperatures again in the mid 50s-low 60s and a continued dry air mass...the potential will again be there for at least near-critical fire weather conditions to develop during the afternoon hours...mainly west of HWY 281. Confidence in the forecast temps/dpts suffers some due to the uncertainties with how these precipitation chances evolve...more clouds/showers would keep temps down.

Tuesday on through the end of the week...

Forecast dries back out for the middle portion of the week Tuesday-Wednesday...with models showing upper level ridging working to build its way back north. This brings warming temperatures...with Tuesday highs back in the 70s and Wednesday highs in the 80s. The latter portion of the work week into the weekend looks to bring a return to more zonal flow as additional upper level disturbances break down the ridging...and bringing some spotty low-end precip chances to the forecast. Plenty of detail to work out between models with those chances. The weakened ridging will bring cooler temps to the area, with highs Thursday in the 60s-70s and Friday in the 50s...before rebounding back through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 450 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- From a personal standpoint, this 19-year "veteran" of NWS Hastings continues to be in awe of today's historic/unseasonable very-early-spring heat! As already mentioned above (and more detail in the separate climate section below), it's one thing to shatter heat records for the CURRENT MONTH in the spring, but to also at least match heat records for the FOLLOWING MONTH is a true rarity.

- As for 7-day forecast changes versus our previous (early-AM) forecast issuance, honestly nothing notable to speak of. Day- to-day high/low temps were only nudged upward or downward a few degrees at most, and unfortunately the vast majority of the next week appears dry (only limited/spotty/light precip chances both Monday and again late in the week). Peeking slightly beyond the 7-day, there is at least limited hope that at least a slightly more active precipitation pattern could "kick in" around-and-beyond March 30th, also accompanied by some increase in low-level moisture and resultant increases in relative humidity/some decrease of the fire weather threat. We can only hope.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sun. March 28) - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM: Although today's record/historic heat is fascinating to witness from a purely meteorological perspective (high temps likely to end up 95-99 most areas), the combo of the heat and unusually low relative humidity (single digits nearly all areas), along with breezy (fortunately not OVERLY- windy) west- southwest winds, has unfortunately manifested in a dangerous fire weather setup. More fire weather details will from this point forward be discussed in the separate Fire Weather section below, but as of this writing our satellite data has detected a few smaller fire hotspots in Osborne/Hamilton counties, with both satellite/radar confirming a noticeable flare-up within the expansive Cottonwood Fire area along the Dawson/Lincoln County line.

In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm our region's considerable influence from an incredibly strong ridge of high pressure (around 589 decameter height at 500 millibars) spinning clockwise and centered over the AZ/NM/MX border area. Under only a very limited amount of passing thin/high cirrus clouds, our Central Plains region resides under west-northwesterly flow along the northeastern periphery of this ridge.

At the surface, impressive/deep diurnal mixing up to around 600 millibars has allowed winds to (if anything) turn a little more westerly (versus southerly) than expected, with sustained speeds commonly 15-20+ MPH/gusts at least 25-30 MPH this afternoon, only contributing to the big warm-up and fire weather concerns.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Fortunately, the aforementioned very deep mixing will really decrease by around/especially after 7 PM, allowing winds to decrease and turn more southerly (versus westerly) this evening. However, after sunset there will be a modest/secondary increase in south-southwesterly winds, as mixing into a strong low-level jet brings back some gusts of 20+ MPH.

However, the "big story" of the overnight hours arrives later (between midnight and sunrise Sunday), as a strong cold front steadily blasts southward through our CWA from north-to- south...entering our far northern counties 1-3 AM, and eventually clearing our far southern (KS) counties 5-7 AM. In its wake, all areas will experience at least a 2-3 hour "blast" of fairly strong northerly winds, commonly sustained 25-35 MPH and gusting at least 40-50 MPH. At least limited coverage of brief, marginally-severe gusts of 55-60 MPH is certainly possible, but confidence in meeting/exceeding official severe criteria of 58+MPH is currently too low to justify a formal High Wind Warning (this bears close watching though). This will be a dry frontal passage, and also bring steadily-cooler temps. Overnight low temps (likely not reached until 8-9 AM) are aimed low 40s northwest...to upper 40s-low 50s southeast.

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: Despite highs being 30-35 degrees COOLER THAN TODAY, they will still be above-normal for late March! If anything, these highs were nudged down very slightly, now aimed upper 50s-low 60s in Nebraska...to mainly mid-60s in Kansas. Wind-wise, the day will start out rather windy (especially in the morning), but then see a slow/gradual decreasing trend during the afternoon. For the day as a whole though, sustained northerly speeds at least 20-30 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH will be common (up to around 40 MPH in the morning).

Sunday evening-overnight, winds become light as they eventually trend more east-southeasterly in the presence of surface high pressure. Although clouds will be on the increase and some spotty light rain could start to enter our far southwestern CWA close to sunrise, this will almost surely be the overall- chilliest night of the next week, with lows bottoming out 30-35 most areas.

- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: Although most places will be lucky to pick up anything more than a hundredth or two, chances for at least spotty light rain showers have increased versus 24 hours ago as a weak/moisture starved shortwave zips through the Central Plains (for now measurable chances/PoPs are only 20-30% at most). Otherwise, the main story during the day will be gradually-increasing south- southeasterly breezes...overall strongest in our western half (west of Hwy 281), where sustained speeds 15-20 MPH/gusts 25-30 MPH will be most common. High temps upper 50s-low 60s most areas. Any spotty rain should depart by evening, with slightly- milder lows in the mid-upper 30s likely Monday night.

- TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: The forecast turns dry again as upper ridging over the southwestern U.S. again becomes an increasing influence, with high temps steadily trending upward...currently aimed mainly 70s Tuesday...then low-mid 80s most areas Wednesday (upper 80s far south-southwest). Overnight lows follow suit...holding up well into the 40s to perhaps low 50s.

- THURSDAY-SATURDAY: As usual, uncertainty grows in the "finer details" at this time range, but the main takeaways include a cool-down as the upper pattern "flattens" a bit and our next large-scale surface cold front passes southward through the Central Plains (the latest ECMWF/GFS both bring this front through on Thursday). For now, we have highs easing back in the 70s Thursday, then mainly 50s for Friday-Saturday. Our official forecast includes some spotty/low chances for precipitation as early as late Thurs night-Fri AM, the vast majority of which should fall as rain (if any occurs).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Any cloud cover moving through the area is expected to remain in the mid-upper levels, though some model time heights show the potential for a few lower level clouds to sink south into the area...not enough confidence to put in a lower ceiling. Gusty north winds will continue across the area through the daytime hours today...with the strongest speeds expected not through mid-afternoon. Gusts around 35-40 MPH will be possible...then gradually diminishing mid-late afternoon. Later this evening, as surface high pressure slides through the area, winds look to turn more light/variable.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 450 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Unfortunately, other than some very small/fleeting chances for a few rain showers here or there (mainly centered around Monday and then again later in the week), the vast majority of these next 7 days appear dry. Following is a day-by-day breakdown of fire weather concerns within our forecast area (CWA):

- SUNDAY: Despite afternoon high temperatures being at least 30-35 degrees COOLER than Saturday, they will still be above-average for late- March...most areas topping out between the upper 50s-mid 60s. Winds will also remain moderately-strong especially through the first half of the day, but fortunately will SLOWLY decrease through the afternoon as RH gradually falls. The net result is a solidly elevated-to-near-critical fire weather situation, featuring northerly wind gusts commonly 25-35 during the afternoon, but with RH currently forecast to drop no lower than 25-30 percent (slightly above official critical criteria).

At this time, we have decided against a formal Warning given the combination of: 1) RH falling slightly short of criteria...2) winds slowly decreasing with time. That being said, should later forecasts raise wind speeds and/or lower RH, arguments could certainly be made for a marginal Warning issuance...especially in our southern/Kansas counties.

- MONDAY: At this time, this looks like another elevated-to-near critical fire weather afternoon for most of our CWA. Temperatures will be similar to Sunday, but this time the breezy winds will be out of the south-southeast...overall-strongest in the western half of our CWA where gusts of 25-30 MPH are most likely. At this time, minimum afternoon RH is forecast to bottom out 22-30% in most places (slightly above critical criteria), but it could be a "close call" especially in our western-most Nebraska counties (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas), so this bears close watching.

- TUESDAY: This is also a day that bears watching, as although our current forecast does not call for critical conditions, this has "the looks" of a day that could trend worse as it gets closer in time, thanks to breezy southerly winds that will likely gust 20+ MPH. At least for now, minimum RH is forecast to drop no lower than 25-30% in most places.

- WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: As is typical this far out in time, confidence is lacking in the "finer details" regarding fire weather parameters. Wednesday bears watching for the warmest temperatures (highs in the 80s) and lowest RH of the week (10-20% most places), but at least for now winds appear relatively tame. Thursday-Friday then appear to turn windier out of the northeast behind a cold front, but there are questions regarding how low RH might get in a cooler airmass.

-- NOTE: - NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.