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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Seasonably cool weather will continue for the next several days with a very small chance for some light rain across north central Kansas Saturday night into Sunday.
- A modest warm up to around normal temperatures (lower to mid 50s) anticipated to start the new work week.
- More widespread rainfall chances return to the area over the middle of next week as a more active weather pattern develops across local area.
UPDATE
Issued at 445 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Temperatures have indeed tanked this morning in areas that remain cloud free along and east of Hwy 281 where we've now finally achieved a hard freeze (28F or colder) Good riddance to all of the mosquitoes! Further W, a combination of low stratus and even a bit of fog has kept temperatures a bit warmer in the lower 30s. This stratus, similar to yesterday, will likely play a role in our sensible weather well into the daytime hours today by keeping some areas cloudy/cooler than others. Fairly thick high clouds will also be on the increase late in the day. Expect highs to remain mostly in the 40s today, though far S/SW zones that manage to clear out some this afternoon could sneak into the lower 50s. Tonight shouldn't be quite as cold thanks to aforementioned high clouds, along with a steady SE breeze, but should still see widespread sub-freezing lows in the 20s.
Seasonably cool conditions look to persist through the weekend with high temperatures both days mainly in the 40s amidst fairly persistent high level cloudiness. These clouds will be emanating from a shortwave disturbance forecast to transit from the S Rockies into the S Plains, remaining mainly S of the local forecast area. There remains some 20-60% rain chances in the forecast - highest closer to the I-70 corridor - in the Saturday night to Sunday morning time frame given some uncertainty in the exact northern extent. However, even if we do see some of the precip creep into our area, amounts will be light.
Still keeping an eye on the potential for additional, perhaps stronger/larger, disturbances to move through during especially the later portions of next week. Details are obviously still quite sketchy this far out, but appears another fairly wet system is a possibility that could be a cold rain and maybe even some snow for especially W/NW zones.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
A stubborn layer of stratus has been slowly eroding across the local area this afternoon. Central areas have seen little to no sunshine, helping keep temperatures stuck mostly in the lower 40s. This stratus should continue to erode through the late afternoon/early evening hours, with mostly clear skies eventually returning to the area overnight.
With mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, expect temperatures to fall rapidly overnight, with a cold/frosty start to the day across the local area to finish out the work week. This will likely be the coolest day of the fall, thus far, with widespread lower to mid 20s anticipated.
This cool/dry weather is then anticipated to persist into at least Saturday evening, when the next disturbance crossing the southern plains clips southern portions of the local area. This system has continued to trend south over the past 24 hours, and consequently now have pops mostly limited to portions of north central Kansas, with little to no precipitation accumulation anticipated.
Behind this initial system, high pressure aloft will build back across the plains from the southwest to start the new work week, with a rebound in temperatures to slightly above normal levels for Tuesday and Wednesday as breezy southerly winds also increase across the local area. The next system is then forecast to lift out of the southwest and into the plains - midweek - brining a small chance for some light precip Wednesday into early Thursday.
Still plenty of uncertainty with the following upper level low as is develops across the southwest late in the week, but many ensemble members indicate this could be another fairly wet system for the following weekend with temperatures suggesting a cold rain across the local area as the system intensifies and moves into the plains.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 545 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Tricky CIG forecast today due to band of stratus that is already affecting EAR, and whose eastern edge could flirt back and forth with GRI. Where the stratus does reside, expect CIGs to generally remain around 1500-2500ft. Model guidance is not handling this the best, so confidence on trends beyond midday are fairly low. Some models keep it around all day and even into tonight...whereas others clear it out this afternoon then possibly even bring it back tonight.
Winds will be SE to SSE around 5-10kt.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None. KS...None.
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