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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms may impact mainly areas along and west and north of the Tri-Cities beginning around 1 AM until around mid- morning Tuesday.

- Some of these storms tonight could be strong to severe with hail up to around quarter size and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

- Showers and storms are expected to develop late Tuesday afternoon /early Tuesday evening and continue into Tuesday night. Some of the storms may become strong to severe.

- High temperatures are expected to range from the mid 80s to the low triple digits.

- Heat index values will range anywhere from 100 to 103/104 degrees across portions (mainly southern) of the area each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

An upper ridge of high pressure extends from the southeast part of the country and Texas northward to Nebraska and portions of the Midwest. An upper low is centered over southern Canada and extends southward over the northern Plains and portions of the Upper Midwest. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are fairly light at around 5 to 10 MPH and are transitioning to the south to southeast. High temperatures today will range from the mid 80s to upper 90s across the forecast area. A shortwave trough is expected to move over/near the area late this evening into tonight. This will result in showers and storms developing and moving across mainly areas along and to the west and north of the Tri-Cities area beginning around 1 AM and continuing until around or slightly past sunrise. CAPE, wind shear, and lapse rates will be sufficient for some of these storms to become strong to marginally severe. Hail up to around quarter size and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH will be possible with the strongest storms. A surface low will be near/across the area tonight with low temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

A surface low will remain across the area on Tuesday with south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on the northwest periphery of the upper ridge. Winds will increase out of mostly the south Tuesday afternoon with highs warming up into the upper 80s to near 100 degrees. A weak cold front will begin moving into the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Showers and storms are expected to develop late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening along this front and associated with an upper disturbance moving over/near the area. These storms will have the potential to become strong to severe given high CAPE and fairly high wind shear and lapse rates. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. The severe threat will last until around midnight with storms expected to go away 2 to 3 hours afterwards. Low temperatures Tuesday night will generally range from the low/mid 60s to the mid/upper 70s.

Winds will increase out of the south Wednesday afternoon as a surface trough strengthens across western Nebraska and western Kansas. High temperatures on Wednesday will be similar or slightly higher than the previous day. Isolated showers and storms may move across northern portions of the area (mainly north of the Tri- Cities) Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as a shortwave moves overhead. The region will continue to be under the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge through Friday before the ridge become more centered over the southern/central Plains over the weekend. On and off again slight rain and storm chances (15% to 25%) will be present across various portions of the area through Sunday night. High temperatures Thursday through Sunday will generally range from the upper 80s to low triple digits.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Thunderstorms are possible at KEAR 10-12Z. Cluster of scattered showers/storms will move out of Western KS and could impact KEAR in the 10-12Z timeframe but are expected to stay northwest of KGRI. Light easterly winds will shift to the south during the early afternoon hours increasing to 8-10 KTS. Winds become light and variable around sunset. SCT-BKN high level clouds are possible throughout the TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.


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