textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers/storms continue overnight through the mid morning hours. Small hail is possible in the strongest storms.

- Highs in the upper 70s to 80s on today with the best chances for afternoon/evening showers/storms east of the forecast area.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances return Monday evening/night. A few of these storms could be strong-severe. Off and on chances for storms continue through the end of the forecast period with highs generally in the 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Today...

The band of thunderstorms that brought damaging wind gusts to southwestern portions of the area has exited northeastern portions of the area. Behind this band, two clusters of storms are ongoing over the area. The first is across Osborne and Mitchel counties in Kansas where weak shear is keeping storms sub-severe despite CAPE values of 2000 J/Kg. Storms will remain pulse-y with cores quickly strengthening and weakening. Small hail is possible in these storms. Another concern with these storms is continued locally heavy rainfall given the potential for multiple rounds of storms (training) with PWAT values around 1.5". Over time this cluster will gradually shift east/northeast out of the area. Another cluster of showers/storms is developing across Lincoln/Custer/Dawson counties. These showers/storms are expected to shift east across portions of Nebraska through the early morning hours. Lower instability over Nebraska should limit the strength of these storms, though a stronger core could briefly produce small hail. These showers/storms are expected to move east of the forecast area by the mid-late morning hours (~10am).

Skies clear from west to east during the daytime hours, though low stratus may linger across eastern portions of the area into the afternoon. Winds start the day southerly but shift to the west/southwest behind a dryline. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s warmest in the west where skies clear the soonest. Models indicate that the best chances for precipitation are east of the area, closer to the NE/IA border. If a storm were to form in the area this afternoon, it would be most likely to impact locations along Highway 81, though the forecast for Sunday afternoon/evening is currently dry.

Southwesterly flow sits over the area on Monday with a low over the west/Rockies and a ridge over the Midwest. Highs on Monday climb into the 80s under partly cloudy skies. The next disturbance associated with western troughing brings the next chance for rain to the area. Storms are favored to develop over Western NE/KS and move into the area during the evening hours. Of note/focus is the potential for an MCS to develop across portions of central/northern Kansas which would carry an overall higher threat for damaging wind gusts. Details will become clearer over the next 24-36 hours as we move deeper into the range of Hi-res model guidance. Otherwise the forecast remains on track with highs generally in the 80s and off an on chances for showers/storms (mainly evening-overnight). Details on any severe chances will be come clearer as we get closer in time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Looks like it will be fairly active across the local area this evening as CU is just starting to get agitated along the dryline across southwestern Kansas. Despite fairly marginal shear, this CU will be moving into an area of increased (and very strong) instability which will help fuel explosive growth as they track northward towards the local area. This will most likely favor some large hail and strong wind gust potential as the storms expand and merge, but if a few storms are able to remain discrete, an isolated tornado (as advertised by SPC) will also be possible across our local area.

This activity across southwestern Kansas this afternoon is only one area of concern, and a separate area of convection is anticipated to develop across the high plains to our west in response to an upper level low rotating across northern Colorado. Eventually, these two clusters of storms may merge across the local area by mid to late evening as it lifts northeast of the area overnight. As these lines of storms merge, the main threat should transition to strong winds late tonight, with some possible sub-severe redevelopment hinted at in its wake during the pre-dawn hours Sunday.

Thereafter...the main upper level low will then lift north toward Montana by Sunday afternoon, with a weak west southwesterly flow steering addition weak disturbances across the local area as we go through the upcoming work week. While Sunday afternoon/evening looks fairly quiet, this will result in periodic, mainly evening/night-time chances for thunderstorms across the local area, along with seasonably warm temperatures through the end of the extended periods. Overall, the best shot for some severe weather appears to be with the late afternoon and evening convection today, but cannot rule out more isolated chances for strong or severe storms later in the period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored through TAF period, though low confidence MVFR ceilings are possible this morning. So far stratus developing over the area has remained VFR, with the only MVFR stratus well south of the area in Kansas. Based on this, have kept the TAF VFR with low VFR stratus (040-050) through the morning hours. Considered a TEMPO group for MVFR stratus but confidence is too low to include at this time. If MVFR stratus did develop it would be most favored to occur 13-18z. Otherwise low VFR stratus clears during the afternoon hours. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for fog overnight, though variable winds and model spread precludes a mention at this time.

Light winds are expected through the TAF period, starting southerly this morning, shifting to the west/southwest during the afternoon/evening and becoming light and variable overnight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.