textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front moving through now brings much cooler temperatures for the rest of the week.

- The aforementioned cold front could spark some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity tonight, mainly across our north central Kansas counties. Better thunderstorm chances expected along this front as it moves south of the area Tuesday PM, with a marginal risk for severe weather impacting far southern portions of the area.

- Widespread showers and perhaps some weak thunderstorms expected Wednesday into Thursday. 25th-75th percentile rain amounts are generally 0.25-0.75", with 90th percentile amounts as high as 1-1.25".

- The first frost of the season is possible Saturday morning, with widespread lower to middle 30s currently in the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

As of 3PM, a cold front is currently bisecting CWA in roughly half from SW to NE. Behind the front, winds have turned to the north and temperatures are generally in the upper 60s to 70s. South of the front, it remains unseasonably hot in the 80s to lower 90s. Smith Center is even as high as 97F! Despite the proximity to the front, there's hardly a single cloud in the entire CWA.

Main item of concern in the short term is the potential for scattered showers and storms to develop across portions of north central Kansas this evening and overnight as a strengthening low level jet begins to interact with the elevated front. HRRR trends have been fairly consistent in this idea, however, HREF probabilities are only 20-30%. Probably looking at mainly a 6-hr window from 02Z to 08Z before the LLJ veers to the E and the front continues to progress deeper into KS.

For Tuesday, the vast majority of the CWA's sensible weather will be cloudy and cool with a chilly (esp. compared to today!) north breeze...but mainly dry. The exception could be across the far S/SE where convection may once again develop atop the elevated portion of the front. The surface cold front should lie well SE of the area by peak heating - generally along the I-35 corridor - such that the primary severe threat remains off to our SE. Can't completely rule out a few stronger cores taping into lingering elevated instability and strong effective deep layer shear, so SPC has continued to highlight far SE zones in a "Marginal Risk" (level 1 of 5) in their latest outlook.

To go along with the trend for a more southern placement of the surface cold front, have lowered highs across the board as persistent and stubborn low clouds and aforementioned cool Nrly breeze will make it quite difficult to warm up. Also likely some systematic bias-correction issues with the NBM (for high temperatures), as there often is during the transition months. Far N zones may struggle to warm out of the 50s, with mid 60s to mid 70s expected elsewhere (from N to S).

The main time frame for precipitation for the vast majority of the area will be Wednesday into Thursday. Expect a broad area of precip to gradually expand from SW to NE during the day on Wednesday, peak in coverage and intensity Wednesday night into Thursday AM, then gradually taper off from W to E Thursday afternoon and evening. Latest EPS 25-75th percentile QPF generally lies in the 0.25-0.75" range, though some higher members (including the deterministic run) have pockets of higher values in the 1-1.5" range. May have some convective elements/lightning work into portions of northern KS Wed-Wed night, but should be a mainly non-convective, steady rain for NE locations. Thursday AM will be quite wet, but should see a fairly quick downturn in coverage and intensity as we go through the afternoon and early evening hours. Blustery N wind Thu night should keep us from really bottoming out on temperatures and avoid frost for at least one more night.

Forecast dries back out for the end of the work week and into the weekend. Seasonably cool conditions continue into Friday and Saturday...current forecast highs for Friday are only in the mid 50s to low 60s. Our first frost (perhaps even a localized freeze?) of the season is becoming increasingly likely for Friday night into Saturday morning. Current NBM forecast has light winds, mostly clear skies, and temperatures dropping into the 30s area-wide. Some guidance is even colder in the 20s, which does not seem unreasonable for more cold-prone locations such as Dawson County northeastward towards Ord and Greeley.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Rest of today: VFR with breezy west winds veering to the NW by late afternoon, then NNE by this evening, behind a cold front. Expect sustained speeds 9-12kt with some gusts up to around 20kt possible this afternoon. Confidence: High.

Overnight-Tue AM: Expect some MVFR stratus to eventually work into the area behind this evening's cold front. Latest guidance suggests this to happen between 09Z and 12Z, with CIGs right around 1K ft. Will keep the official prevailing group just barely MVFR, for now. These CIGs are likely to persist through the entire morning Tuesday. Winds will be NNE to NE at around 8-13kt through this period. Confidence: High.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.