textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected to retain through the afternoon hours with only a few isolated showers and non-severe storms reaching into portions of northern Kansas and far southwestern Nebraska overnight (20-50% chances, greatest to the southwest).

- The rest of the coverage area should not see any sort of precipitation until Thursday (20-60% chances, greatest towards the southwest). No severe weather is expected.

- Off-and-on shower/storm chances will flicker in and out across the weekend to the first half of next week. At this time, there is no strong signal for severe weather, though higher than usual forecast uncertainty keeps details somewhat limited for now (subject to change).

- Highs will mainly range the upper 70s and 80s for much of the forecast period (through next Wednesday).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Short Term...Today through Thursday Night

Steady southeast winds this afternoon blowing between 10-15 MPH and gusting as high as 25 MPH with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s will become a familiar occurrence across the next several days. Similar returning conditions (highs mainly in the 80s with southeast winds) will come as a western U.S. upper-level cutoff low temporarily slows down the forward translation of a negative tilted intermountain west trough. This feature should lock the southeasterly winds in place across the area through quite possibly the first half of next week.

Meanwhile, a weak shortwave disturbance sliding up from the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle and western Kansas region today will gradually shimmer northward and into western Nebraska by Friday. A few scattered showers and non-severe storms in association with this disturbance will later be slung up into the area from the south across the next several days.

The first storms could arrive as early as this evening and overnight tonight for a few isolated northern Kansas and far southwestern Nebraska locations (20-50% chances, greatest to the southwest). Any activity tonight will be fairly spotty and isolated in coverage. More showers and storms should move into the the area Thursday bringing the full area up to a 20-60% precipitation chances with the highest confidence concentrated towards northern Kansas and southwest Nebraska locations. Shower/storm coverage is still expected to remain spotty to scattered through the day with likely off-and-on periods of wet and dry conditions (potentially more dry than wet periods). Any storm that does form will not be expected to become severe given little available conditional instability (<1,000J/kg of MUCAPE).

Both the HRRR and NAMNEST high-res models capture a overnight lull in precipitation Thursday night, though the latest 12z HRRR run is quicker to clear out the precipitation (afternoon timeframe). Either way, precipitation accumulations will mainly remain on the lighter side of the spectrum with most places likely receiving less than 0.25" (<0.1" north of I-80) of precipitation. The greatest precipitation (up to 0.5") should fall near and south of the state line.

Long Term...Friday and Beyond

Little change in the upper-level pattern over the weekend and early next week will continue to keep conditions fairly similar in terms of winds, temperatures and cloud coverage. Highs each day through next Wednesday will mainly stay between the upper 70s and 80s with mostly cloudy skies dominating a majority of the period. Surface winds will also be expected to remain out of the south or east with steady afternoon winds ranging mainly between 10-15MPH and occasionally gusting as high as 20-30MPH (gustiest winds to come Friday and Saturday afternoon).

In terms of precipitation potential, high uncertainty in when the upper-level flow will break out of its current stalled/blocking pattern will keep precipitation chances on question as for now. At least a weak PoP (20-30%+) returns daily with the possibility of afternoon pop-up showers and weak thunderstorms possible each day across the long term-forecast period. The best potential overall currently lies Friday night (25-60% chances), Saturday (40-70%) and Sunday (40-50%).

Cluster Analysis of the global ensemble models (GEFS/ENS/GEPS) around the Day-6 (Monday) period begins to show two diverging solutions between the ensemble clusters that could impact the forecast for next week. Currently, the leading solution (weighting more towards the GEFS members) shows a less amplified ridging pattern (longer lasting blocking flow). This pattern would favor less precipitation and more temperate (less extreme) temperature swings next week. The alternate (second leading) solution (wighted more towards the ENS members), shows a more amplified upper-level pattern and thus a quicker to unblock upper-level flow. This pattern would favor slightly more precipitation with more notable temperature swings next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VRF conditions are likely (>80% confidence) to retain across the 18z TAF period. A few clouds moving in this evening should maintain bases greater than 10,000ft through at least 6z. Wind directions will remain out of the southeast across the next at least 24 hours with speeds maxing out around 10-12kts this afternoon and occasionally gusting as high as 20kts. Very light winds are expected to develop across the overnight hours (<10kts after 2z). Though a few storms may near the KEAR terminal Thursday morning, no precipitation is expected to reach either terminal site before 12z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.