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KEY MESSAGES

- Temperature-wise: Solidly above normal temps will continue throughout the 7-day forecast, with highs at least into the 50s through Saturday, then more widespread 60s Sunday- Tuesday. Overnight lows mainly upper 20s-mid 30s through Sat night, then more so mid 30s-mid 40s especially Sun-mon nights. - Although the extent and duration of the threat is likely getting increasingly-limited in area and shorter-on-time to occur, at least localized ice jam flooding remains a possibility mainly along the Loup, North Loup and Platte River downstream of Grand Island (see separate HYDROLOGY section below for more details). - Other than any potential localized flooding, the only shorter term weather concern is the possibility for a few hours of "near-critical" fire weather conditions this afternoon primarily in our extreme western forecast area (CWA).

- Precipitation-wise, the vast majority of the 7-day forecast remains dry. However, models continue to suggest at least "some" rain potential Friday night-Saturday, with perhaps the latest model data suggesting a slightly better chance for rain (especially for our southern counties) compared to forecasts 12-24 hours ago.

UPDATE

Issued at 459 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES WITHIN THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST: 1) Although our latest forecast has continued to keep measurable rain chances on the lower side (20-40%) within our CWA for Friday night-Saturday, models continue to remain frustratingly- inconsistent over the past few days regarding whether our forecast area gets missed altogether, or perhaps catches the northern edge of rain potential with a system tracking mainly to our south. If anything, the very latest 00Z/06Z models runs (including ECMWF/GFS/NAM) seem to be trending up on at least light rain amounts making it up into our forecast area, but still favoring our southern counties (especially KS) more so than our northern counties.

2) Although IF the aforementioned system does indeed track a bit farther north into our area for Saturday, temps could be held down a bit, but the high temperature forecast for especially Sunday-Monday has trended up several degrees from previous forecasts 12-24 hours ago (greater potential for widespread 60s).

NOTE: for additional information regarding the forecast beyond Thursday please refer to our next full forecast discussion that will be issued this afternoon.

-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER/TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through Thursday): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM: Although satellite reveals transient bands of mid-high level clouds passing through mainly our western/southern counties, overall the majority of our CWA has remained a bit clearer than expected here 24 hour ago. These mainly clear skies, in combination with very light breezes (mainly 5 MPH at most) promoted by an area of surface high pressure (around 1029 millibars) currently centered over our CWA, has allowed overnight temperatures to drop at least a few (if not several) degrees colder than earlier forecast...with the majority of our CWA on track to bottom out in the teens-low 20s (typically colder spots such as Ord airport have gotten down to at least 14).

- TODAY (similar temps to yesterday...opposite wind direction): Although there will be varying amounts of transient mid-high level cloud cover (overall-highest cloud coverage likely favoring our northern counties), it will be a dry day under generally partly cloudy skies. At the surface, the high pressure/ridge axis will gradually depart off to our southeast, allowing very light and somewhat westerly breezes to start the day, to gradually pick up in speed and turn southerly as the day wears on. Winds will not be truly strong this afternoon by any means, but sustained speeds in our eastern half will generally be around 10 MPH (gusts to around 15 MPH), while a bit stronger in our western half (and especially far west) with sustained speeds around 15 MPH/gusts 20+ MPH. High temperatures will be remarkably similar to yesterday, with most of our CWA aimed 52-55 degrees. Fortunately, winds will not be strong enough and relative humidity (RH) will not be low enough to cause outright- critical fire weather concerns. However, our far western counties (mainly Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) could reach near-critical thresholds due to a combo of both gusts 20+ MPH and RH down to 25% or slightly lower.

- TONIGHT (maybe a few sprinkles try catching our far north?): Although the vast majority of (and probably our entire) CWA will surely remain dry, mid-high level clouds will be on the increase in response to a subtle upper wave moving in from the west- northwest. The overall thickest clouds should favor our northern counties, where a few rogue sprinkles probably cannot be ruled out. However, have left out of the forecast for now with slightly better potential for any sprinkles/very light rain to focus slightly north-northeast of our CWA altogether. Otherwise, breezes tonight will average southerly 5-10 MPH, which in tandem with increased clouds will keep low temperatures from falling as far as this morning...with most places expected to drop no lower than 28-32 degrees.

- THURSDAY DAYTIME: While especially the morning will probably still feature a fair amount of mid-high clouds, cloud coverage should thin out somewhat for the afternoon, making for an overall pleasant day with high temperatures a bit warmer than today (most areas mid- upper 50s) and also winds lighter than today (mainly 10 MPH or less). Wind direction will be a bit variable however, starting the day southerly, but then turning more northerly behind a very weak front in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A cold front crossed the local area early this morning bringing modestly cooler temperatures, breezy north winds, and variable cloud cover today. Despite high temperatures topping out "only" around 50, temperatures remain well above seasonal norms for this time of year.

With an area of surface high pressure sliding south across the area tonight, expect temperatures to plummet as winds diminish, but for a mix of mid/high level cloud cover to help mitigate their potential drop. Even so, this will likely be the coolest night of the period with most locations bottoming out in the lower to mid 20s.

As high pressure aloft then begins to amplify across the plains in response to a west coast low tomorrow, expect temperatures to climb further (by 2-5 degrees) across the local area, with variable cloud cover potentially holding down afternoon temps a bit from their potential. That said, as temperatures climb and southerly winds increase in return flow around the surface high tomorrow afternoon, could see a few hours of elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across our extreme west (mainly west of HWY 183) during the afternoon hours, so opted to introduce this potential into the HWO.

Thereafter...the west coast low is expected to move onshore across southern California/Baja later this week, eventually sliding south of the local area over the weekend. Originally this system was expected to track further north, spreading some precip across the central Plains, but trends have kept this system south, and am not overly optimistic that much precipitation, if any, locally, will be realized. Will continue to monitor in case the system tries to shift north, but based on the last couple of days, the blended pops of 15-40% across our area Friday afternoon into Saturday look plenty generous.

Of notable difference from the forecast a few days ago, temperatures continue to trend upward toward early next week as another ridge of high pressure builds across the plains. This could eventually lead to temperatures returning to the 70s early next week before the subsequent west coast low traverses the local area mid-week (likely dry) dropping temperatures back down into the 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Despite a fair amount of mid-high level cloud coverage ranging from SCT-BKN, any potential ceiling should be no lower than roughly 10K ft. AGL, resulting in a very high confidence VFR forecast throughout the period.

Right away this morning, winds will be light and from somewhat variable direction as a surface ridge axis departs. However, by 16Z a more consistent south-southwesterly direction will establish as speeds pick up slightly, paving the way for a slightly breezy afternoon with southerly sustained speeds around 10-12KT/gusts at least 16-18KT. This evening and overnight, light-but-steady southerly breezes will prevail with speeds mainly at-or-below 9KT.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 459 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Localized threat for ice jam flooding continues along the Platte River (downstream of Grand Island), along with portions of especially the North Loup/Loup Rivers primarily in Howard/Nance counties:

As of this writing (415 AM Tuesday), we are not aware of ongoing flooding from ice jams and in our forecast area, and have no active Flood Advisories/Warnings in effect (these would only be issued for confirmed flooding that could cause at least minor issues to property/roads). That being said, with another day of above normal temperatures coming up, the threat for localized ice jam flooding cannot be ruled out along those portions of the Platte and Loup River systems where ice is still present and gradually breaking up/moving downstream. Although the smattering of available webcams and automated river gages obviously don't tell the "full story" of what is happening along the entire stretch of rivers, the presence of "wiggly"/slightly fluctuating water stages on gage data indicate that at least some ice breakup/movement is present especially along the North Loup/Loup Rivers through Howard/Nance counties (most evidenced by gage data near St. Paul and Genoa).

Due to uncertainty regarding exactly how much ice remains on the aforementioned rivers (versus open channels), it is challenging to pinpoint "exactly" how much longer a localized ice jam threat might persist. At least for now, we will keep a Special Weather Statement going through this afternoon for a handful of our counties mainly along the North Loup/Loup Rivers and also the Platte River downstream of Grand Island. Whether this Statement gets extended beyond this afternoon will depend on river gage data trends today, and especially on any "ground truth" reports we might receive from emergency managers, spotters etc.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.