textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- One more day of intense heat and humidity, despite the arrival of a weak cool front. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the entire forecast area given expectations for max heat indices of 105-115 degrees.

- There is a 30-60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight, highest W of the Tri-Cities. There is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for some of this activity to become severe. Main threat is damaging wind gusts up to 60mph.

- Beyond today: although not truly "cool" by any means, more manageable/typical high temps mainly upper 80s-mid 90s look to prevail starting Tuesday...ending the need for any additional heat headlines.

- There will be occasional showers and thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday night as a series of disturbances work around a strong upper ridge centered over the S Plains.

UPDATE

Issued at 448 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Main forecast concern is once again the combination of intense heat and humidity. While some of our W and NW counties may not get quite as bad as this past weekend...we're once again off to a very warm start, and there really hasn't been much of an air mass change just yet. A weak cool front will move in from the NW this morning, but guidance is in decent agreement that temperatures behind this front will only be a few degrees cooler. However, any practical sense of "cooling" with this front will likely be offset by still high low level moisture that often tends to "pool" along and behind these types of slow- moving and weak fronts. Also, factor in that today will be the third day in a row of intense heat, cumulative effects can still cause impacts - thus the reason for the recent expansion of the Excessive Heat Warning to include ALL of our forecast area.

Areas immediately along the front this afternoon...which looks to run from around Lincoln to Superior to Hays...could experience particularly "brutal" conditions given what should be almost little to no wind. Winds will be breezy out of the S/SW ahead of the front, and areas behind the front will see a shift to 10-15 MPH NErly winds...but along the front winds will be variable and quite light. As such, WBGT values in these areas are expected to reach levels in which NO strenuous outdoor activities in direct sunlight are advised.

One last thing to note on today's heat/humidity...most models, even short-term hi-res CAMs...have really struggled with the amount of evapotranspiration coming off of the crops, but also even the ambient air temperatures, as well. This may very well happen again today. Bottom line...we want to emphasize that today is not one to let your guard down despite what you may see as "cooler" temperatures on quick glance on a phone app.

As for thunderstorm chances...appears we're still on track for at least somewhat better rain chances this evening and overnight, roughly 30-60% compared to the 20-30% last evening. Generally expect initial development to occur off to our W along the Front Range/High Plains this afternoon, then gradually shift E/SE this evening and overnight. The overall magnitude of intensity and coverage remains a bit uncertain given rather weak forcing aloft and still relatively warm mid level temperatures (700mb temps ~17-18C!). IF activity off to our W can develop some sort of organization and mesoscale lift (cool pool, MCV, etc.) then there obviously would be plenty of moisture and instability for this activity to work with in our area. Timing and lack of substantial deep layer shear suggests a limited severe threat that's likely tied to localized damaging wind gust potential. The latest SPC convective outlook covers nearly the entire forecast area with a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for this potential. Finally...while widespread hydro issues are NOT expected given recent dry, hot weather...some of the heavier cores tonight could be rather efficient at producing heavy rain rates of 1-2"/hr. If these occur over relatively urban or flash flood prone locations, then some brief issues can't be ruled out. Highest chances for rain will be over our W third (roughly along/W of Hwy 183), with gradually decreasing chances with time tonight further E.

Should actually experience some more substantial/noticeable heat/humidity relief for Tuesday...though really only back to "seasonable" levels with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dew points in the 60s to lower 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A north to northeast wind shift will begin moving into the area on Monday. This boundary does not appear like it will have much impact on temperatures, but models are showing an increase of moisture behind the boundary. Winds are expected to increase out of the northeast behind the boundary which may help to mix out some of the low-level moisture. There are uncertainties as to how much of an influence this boundary will have on temperatures, moisture, and cloud cover for Monday. There is higher confidence across north central Kansas for the combination of temperatures (around 100 to 106 degrees) and moisture to produce heat index values near or above 110 degrees for Monday. For this reason, the Heat Advisory across this area was upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning which is in effect until 10 PM Monday. There is lower confidence (due to the above mentioned factors) across south central and central Nebraska so those areas were not upgraded at this time. Although, the Nebraska counties bordering Kansas have the highest likelihood of reaching Extreme Heat criteria on Monday and there is fairly high confidence (around 70%) that some areas in these counties may have heat index values near/around 110 degrees on Monday. Heat index values across our Nebraska counties are expected to range from around 101 in Ord to around 106 to 110 degrees across the far southern row of counties. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible (up to around a 50% chance) Monday evening and night as an upper disturbance moves overhead from the west. The highest chances will be across western portions of the area (mainly west of the Tri-Cities area). Some of these storms may become strong to marginally severe with wind gusts up to around 60 MPH being the main threat. The showers and storms will move eastward as the night continues.

Cooler temperatures are expected beginning Tuesday (highs in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s) as a surface high moves across the area. High temperatures in the 80s and 90s will continue through the end of the week. Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Various rain and storm chances will continue Tuesday through Thursday night as upper disturbances move over the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are currently forecast...with the majority of this TAF period expected to be dry. Main timeframe of concern for these potentially scattered showers/storms looks to be after midnight, currently carrying at PROB30 group in the 08-13Z period...some models suggest at least isolated activity could creep into the area a little earlier than that, so confidence in the timing isn't overly high. Kept the PROB30 group VFR at this point, but if a stronger/heavier storm happens to move over the terminal areas, a brief reduction in ceiling/visibility will be possible. Winds remain northeasterly the rest of today, can't rule out an occasional gust near 20 MPH this afternoon. More variable winds will be possible later this evening/tonight...again especially if a stronger storm moves through, a higher gust will be possible. For the latter portion of this period after sunrise, winds look to be more easterly.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.