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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon generally west and southwest of the Tri-Cities area.

- The next chance of precipitation (15%-30%) is on Monday with various chances through the end of the forecast.

- The highest chance (60%-75%) of precipitation (showers and storms) is Thursday night into Friday.

- There are large uncertainties with high temperatures on Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

An upper level trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends over Nebraska and Kansas. Gusty, northwest winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures today will range from the 40s to the 60s but winds will make it feel cooler. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon (west of the Tri-Cities area) with minimum humidity values of around 22% - 26% across western portions of the area and wind gusts of 20-30+ MPH. Winds will be light out of the northwest and west tonight with clear skies and temperatures cooling into the 20s and 30s.

Winds will transition from the west to north northwest on Sunday but will be much lighter than today. The area will be in between 2 surface lows on Sunday which will allow for temperatures to warm up into the 60s and 70s. Winds will transition to the east northeast Sunday night with low temperatures a little warmer than the previous night but still in the 20s and 30s. Cooler air will move into the area from the northeast on Monday with high temperatures expected to generally range from the 40s to the 60s. Some light rain showers may develop (15%-30% chance) mainly northeast of the Tri-Cities on Monday with an increase in atmospheric lift. Winds will transition to the east and southeast Monday night with precipitation (rain possibly mixed with snow) possible (15% - 40% chance). Low temperatures Monday night are expected to be in the 20s and 30s (cooler than the previous night).

Enhanced upper lift will move over the area on Tuesday. This along with southeasterly winds may result in increased cloud cover and moisture. Drizzle along with light rain/light snow will be possible on Tuesday (30% to near 60% chance) with any snow being in the morning hours. There are uncertainties in how long the cloud cover and moisture will remain over the area on Tuesday which has lead to uncertainties in high temperatures. As of now, expecting high temperatures on Tuesday to range from the low 50s to low 70s although some places across the north may not get out of the 40s. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest Tuesday night which will result in warmer low temperatures. At this time, expecting lows to mostly be in the 40s.

An upper trough will move over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Wednesday sending a cold front southward. Temperatures are expected to warm up on Wednesday ahead of the cold front but there are some uncertainties in regards to how warm it will get. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. A cold front will move into the area on Thursday with quite a bit of uncertainty in high temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop associated with this front. High uncertainty in regards to temperatures continues into Friday along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms (50% to 75% chance).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with mostly clear skies anticipated to persist through the afternoon hours as an area of surface high pressure sinks southeast later this morning. As this high shifts southeast...expect westerly winds to increase to around 10-12KTS by 05/17Z...with a few gusts to near 20 KTS as deep mixing is realized during the afternoon hours. Mid/high level clouds will increase ahead of a backdoor cold front after sunset...with winds eventually shifting and becoming easterly behind the front toward the late evening hours.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.


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