textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms persist this afternoon and evening. A few could be marginally severe.

- Additional showers and storms are possible Sunday morning, with drier conditions in the afternoon.

- The threat for severe weather returns on Monday as a cold front moves through the area.

- Wet and cooler-than normal for the rest of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Despite relatively cool and stable air at the surface, scattered storms have continued to develop over central Nebraska. These storms, fueled by decent elevated instability (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE), have resulted in several strong to marginally severe updrafts (including 1.25" hail in Holdrege around noon). Near- term modeling has struggled to handle the subtle forcing responsible for these storms, but the expectation is that coverage will diminish this afternoon, with a potential uptick again this evening over southeast parts of the area. Most activity will likely remain non-severe, but a few strong to marginally severe storms remain possible. Given the elevated nature of the storms, hail will be the primary threat.

Additional showers/storms may develop late tonight into Sunday morning, aided by warm air advection in the low levels, although this is unlikely to become severe given the timing. The highest coverage will gradually shift eastward through the morning hours, with dry conditions returning for Sunday afternoon. Lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cooler side for Sunday (highs only in the 70s for most).

Monday is the main day to watch for severe weather. Ahead of an advancing cold front, we should see substantial warming with many areas returning to the 90s. This, of course, also yields a very unstable environment as the cold front moves into the area during the afternoon and evening. The latest Day 3 SPC outlook has upgraded part of the area to a "Slight Risk" (Level 2 of 5), which seems appropriate.

After this front moves through, the rest of next week looks relatively wet and cooler than normal. Continued southwesterly flow aloft, combined with a stalled front just to our south will result in daily chances for rain and thunderstorms. Details remain uncertain, but ML severe guidance would suggest that the severe threat remains fairly low. Models vary on exactly "how wet" next week will be, but all of the global ensembles (EPS, GEFS, CMCE) along with their AI counterparts favor above-normal rainfall totals over the next 7 days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Pesky showers and weak storms continue to slide through central Nebraska early this afternoon, but should clear by around 21Z.

Late tonight, there is a low chance (30%) for a few showers to redevelop...mainly after 10Z. MVFR ceilings are then expected to develop after sunrise on Sunday.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.