textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of patchy fog development is possible (20-50%) this morning, potentially reducing visibilities for the morning commute.

- Hot/humid weather is expected through the weekend, with high temperatures rising into the 90s and even triple digits. Heat index values soaring above 100 degrees is possible (30-60%), particularly in north central Kansas.

- Showers/thunderstorms are possible Saturday morning and again Saturday evening/night. There is a low chance that some of these evening storms may be strong to marginally severe.

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return to portions of the area each day next week, along with a cooling trend in temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 209 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Weakening winds and surface dew points in the upper 60s pose another favorable environment for fog development this morning. This fog is not expected to be as dense or as widespread as yesterday morning, as recent model guidance has suggested more of a low level stratus layer developing thanks to some low-level isentropic lift. In fact, recent REFS guidance depicts only a 20-50% chance of seeing visibilities drop below 1 mile for most of the area.

As the fog/stratus deck burns off mid morning, skies may appear hazy thanks to some upper-level smoke being transported from the Pacific Northwest. Warm and humid conditions are expected today, as temperatures increase into the upper 80s to mid 90s today along with dew points reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s.

This heat/humidity will stick around through the weekend, as an upper-level ridge broadens over the area. While conditions will not be as extreme as they were a week or so ago, EFI/SOT guidance (which shows how extreme/rare forecast conditions are compared to local climatology) is suggesting slightly above normal temperatures for August particularly in north central Kansas, which is a shift from the seasonably cooler conditions experienced the last few days. Highs are expected to increase into the mid 90s to triple digits by Sunday and Monday. LREF guidance is showing a 30-60% chance of seeing heat index values increasing to above 100 degrees in north central Kansas each afternoon Saturday through Monday, though seeing heat index values reaching 105 degrees is not out of the realm of possibilities.

The main failure point of these more extreme temperatures is the chance of showers/thunderstorms as some "sneaky" waves may try to emerge in the NW flow aloft. The first of these thunderstorm chances comes Saturday morning, as some CAMS are suggesting a thunderstorm cluster diving to the SE from western South Dakota/Nebraska. However there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing, coverage, and location of these storms. Other models are showing redevelopment of thunderstorms Saturday evening/overnight. There is a low chance that some of these evening storms may be strong to marginally severe, as there is ample instability and shear to work with. The main uncertainty with these storms is when and where these thunderstorms develop.

Regardless, the heat won't last too long, as model consensus supports a cooling trend early next week as the upper level ridge weakens and a more zonal pattern emerges. Within this zonal flow, various shortwaves are possible, causing enough forcing for numerous precipitation chances next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Low clouds have been stubborn to burn off today thanks to weak mixing withing the low level high pressure axis. This high pressure is shifting further E and allowing for gradually increasing S/SE low level flow and decreasing clouds. Humidity is beginning to increase once again (dew points back into he mid to upper 60s), but should still be a seasonably pleasant evening given the light breeze and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s through sunset.

Expect another round of stratus and potentially more fog late tonight and into Friday AM with return of downright muggy conditions and dew points in the low to mid 70s. Bufkit soundings and model progs seem to favor this moisture advection being more stratus than fog, which makes sense given the steady 5-10 MPH Srly winds tonight. Models were a little overdone on the fog last night and are even less excited about it tonight, so have mentioned patchy fog in the grids, but left out any mention of dense fog in the latest HWO.

Main story for the weekend will be return of warm/hot and humid conditions - but there's also one or two, albeit highly uncertain, chances for thunderstorms to deal with, as well. Dome of upper level high pressure will build/expand over the central and southern Plains and allow for temperatures to soar into the 90s, to even low 100s in north central Kansas, each afternoon Saturday and Sunday. The warmer KS zones will also see overnight lows creep back up into mid 70s. Still can't rule out the need for a heat advisory for some of these areas, especially towards Sun-Mon time frame, after moisture has had more time to pool along a weak frontal zone. These areas will likely see peak heat indices near the 105F criteria, and the warmer overnight lows will add to the "accumulative effects" that come with high heat. On the other hand, it's now early August and we're well accustomed to the heat that was even higher a couple weeks ago. Will continue to monitor trends for any signs of an upward tick in dew points or air temperatures and potential need for a heat headline - again, mainly along and S of the NE/KS state line.

Several weak waves rounding the edge of the upper level high could lead to some sporadic shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly in the Saturday to Saturday night time frame. CAMs are quite inconsistent with details, however - differing significantly on where and when the best chances will be. Some guidance points towards mainly a Saturday AM chance, whereas other models weaken the AM activity before it gets to us and puts the highest chances with potential redevelopment in the evening and overnight hours. Instability probably won't be a limiting factor regardless of scenario, and region will be on the southern fringes of greater deep layer shear...so at least some mention of severe weather potential seems warranted. Just really difficult to pin point more specific details at this time, unfortunately.

Models still support the idea of gradually cooling temperatures and more active weather pattern for roughly the second half of next week. Temperatures should dip back down into primarily 80s for Neb zones by Wednesday, then area wide for Thursday. The upper ridge will break down some and reorient from the Desert SW into more of the Deep South, which should allow for a steady stream of monsoonal mid to upper level moisture to stream into the region and interact with frequent shortwaves embedded within zonal to NW upper flow. Far too early for much in the way of details, but broadly speaking, the pattern should favor an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential, likely on a daily basis...and this is confirmed in recent ensemble precip anomaly plots for next week. Hopefully this pans out, as many areas could use some moisture now, but especially next week after the hot, and mainly dry, weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low level stratus can be seen developing across central Nebraska early this morning on latest satellite imagery. Expect this stratus to expand in coverage over the next few hours, with IFR CIGS eventually possible late in the night at both terminals. Could also see some modest BR...with MVFR VSBYS...but more dense fog is not expected in this set-up. Expect steady Southeasterly winds less than 10 KTS to continue through the morning hours, eventually becoming Southwesterly around 07/14Z...with stratus also lifting and becoming MVFR through 07/19Z before mostly sunny skies (prevailing VFR conditions) return.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.