textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- There remains a small (20-30%) chance that a few thunderstorms could sneak into mainly a few of our far northern/western Nebraska counties this evening (mainly Valley/Greeley/Sherman/Dawson). IF this were to occur, a spotty strong to perhaps marginally-severe storm could occur (main threat 50-60 MPH winds). - Dry on Tuesday with highs in the 80s and breezy southerly winds.

- Scattered, low confidence chances for precipitation Wednesday PM through the weekend with multiple rounds of showers/storms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

It's a warm afternoon with most areas currently experiencing temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Southerly winds are breezy, gusting 20-30mph. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon-evening hours along the surface trough in west/central Nebraska. Weak forcing combined with poor shear (20kts) should limit the potential strength of these storms despite CAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg. Still, a strong to marginally severe storm (60mph winds, small hail) could develop and impact areas mainly northwest of the Tri-Cities this evening. Storms will steadily weaken/dissipate after sunset as stability increases. Lows in the 50s are expected overnight with partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday...

Aloft, ridging gradually builds over the area on Tuesday as a trough/low moves into the west coast and becomes cutoff. Under the influence of ridging, highs climb into the mid to upper 80s. Another breezy day is expected, with southerly winds gusting 25-30 mph. Dry weather is forecast for Tuesday, under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The upper level pattern transitions to a messy omega blocking pattern (trough over west/east coasts, ridge over central U.S.) Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 80s, warmest across northern portions of the area. The first wave of energy moves into the Southern Plains on Wednesday, bringing the first of potentially several rounds of low confidence, scattered PoPs to the area. Models have at least some agreement that the first round of Pops (15-65%) lift into southwestern portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon/evening and continues into the overnight hours. Models vary how far north/east PoPs make it, but southwestern portions of have the overall highest chances. Wednesday night's band of showers/storms looks to stall out on Thursday, though model spread varies on where this sets up. At least a portion of the area could see scattered showers and storms persisting throughout the day. Highs on Thursday will depend on storms/cloud coverage, ranging from the 70s in rain to the 80s in dry/sunny locations.

Friday Onwards...

Beyond the overall atmospheric pattern/setup (Omega block persists), confidence remains low in the finer details, especially regarding PoPs. Still, models support/indicate that multiple disturbances are favored to move into the area throughout this time period. Model spread results in broad 25-45% PoPs across the area Friday onwards. As we get closer in time, the timing and location of these chances will become clearer. Highs will generally be near to above normal, in the 70s and 80s, though more/less rain may result in slightly cooler/warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 709 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Extremely-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout the period (only limited mid-high level clouds mainly at/above 10K ft. AGL). As for any rain/thunderstorm chances, it is becoming increasingly apparent that any spotty showers/thunderstorms this evening should remain at least 30 miles north/west of KEAR and at least 50 miles north/west of KGRI, and thus will continue to omit any formal inclusion from TAFs.

Thus, as has been the case for a few days now, winds are the main aviation issue, including rather breezy surface winds (especially both early/late in the period), and also slightly- strong low level wind shear (LLWS) later this evening into early Tuesday AM.

- Surface winds: Direction-wise, no major swings should occur, but there will be a shift from southerly through these first 18 hours...then to more southeasterly late in the period on Tuesday afternoon. As for speeds, the overall-strongest speeds will occur both early in the period (mainly through 04-05Z)...and then late in the period (mainly 18-00Z). During these times, sustained speeds commonly 15-20KT/gusts 25+KT (possibly nearing 30KT Tuesday afternoon especially at KEAR). Meanwhile, in between those times, a relative lull in speeds will be centered mainly 06-14Z...with sustained speeds only around 10KT.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): Although not as intense or as long-lasting as last night's round of LLWS was, another round of slightly-strong LLWS will develop overnight and have slightly adjusted the "windows of opportunity" to 05-10Z KGRI/04-09Z KEAR. During this time, winds within the lowest 1,500 ft. AGL will accelerate to 40+KT...creating roughly 30KT of LLWS magnitude. In order to add a bit more directional detail to the veering low level wind maximum have added a second LLWS group to latest TAFs (the latter starting 07Z KEAR/08Z KGRI)...reflecting a shift from a more southerly to a more southwesterly direction.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.