textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Starting very late tonight, and continuing through Thursday night, there will be intermittent chances for light showers and perhaps a few WEAK thunderstorms (chances for severe storms through at least the next 7 days appear almost non- existent). - Frost and/or slightly sub-freezing temperatures will come into play for at least portions (potentially most?) of our forecast area (CWA), especially late Tues night-Wed AM and then again Thurs night-Fri AM and Fri night-Sat AM. Still a little uncertainty on temps, so no formal Advisories/Warnings out just yet.

- Precipitation-wise beyond Thursday night: Fairly high confidence that at least Fri-Sat remain dry (possibly Sun-Mon too, but not as "certain"). The bottom line: Take what rain you can get through Thursday night.

- Temperature-wise: a stretch of somewhat-cool weather for late April/early May, especially through Friday (highs mainly 50s-low 60s/overnight lows mainly low 30s-low 40s). Sat-Mon then brings a modest warm-up...but still a far cry from "hot" with highs mainly 70s/lows mainly 40s.

- On a positive note: For the first in at least weeks, there are NO apparent heightened/critical "fire weather days" through at least the next week (due in part to the cooler temperatures), although perhaps some "near-critical" conditions could sneak back into play by Sun-Mon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 437 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS: - No truly "major" changes of note from previous forecast issued early this AM.

- As already alluded to in the Key Messages above, we are actually in the midst of a fairly "ideal" weather pattern for the next several days: seasonably-cool with intermittent rain chances and NO higher-end fire weather setups OR chances for severe storms. The only folks who might complain are the "warm weather lovers", as no days with 80+ degree highs will occur anytime soon.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Mon. May 4): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 33O PM: First, a quick recap of rainfall over the last 48 hours: Back on Thursday, this forecaster mentioned that MOST of our CWA would hopefully pick up at least 0.50-1.00". Fortunately, MOST places in fact did. However, as always there were lower exceptions on either side. On the low end, a few western and also southeastern counties (particularly much of Dawson/Gosper/Nuckolls/Clay/Thayer) fell solidly short of 0.50...but at least mostly picked up at least 0.25". On the higher end of things, a stripe running very roughly from west of Hastings to north of Aurora picked up at least 1.50" (localized 3"), while parts of several of our KS counties also saw at least 1.50-2.00". All in all, decent totals, but it sure would have been nice if EVERYBODY had gotten at least 0.50".

On to the here and now: The last of the spotty showers/weak thunderstorms from the weekend system either dissipated over/departed east of our forecast area (CWA) several hours ago now, with this afternoon featuring dry conditions under skies ranging from cloudy/mostly cloudy across roughly the northeastern 2/3rds of our CWA, to partly cloudy (even pockets of mostly sunny) within our southwestern 1/3rd. Its been breezy to somewhat-windy area wide, with sustained northwesterly speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-35 MPH. High temperatures are on track to range from upper 40s-low 50s far north-northeast, to a mix of mid-upper 50s across most of our Nebraska counties, to low-mid 60s mainly in our KS counties along with Furnas County area.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short-term model data clearly show us "in between" disturbances, with the departing one exiting over IA/MO, while the next main shortwave trough is working its way through the CA/NV/AZ border area...with weaker "ripples" extending out ahead of it into the Central Rockies.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Fairly high confidence that our entire CWA makes it through at least midnight dry, as breezy winds gradually subside and turn more northerly. Then, between midnight and sunrise Tuesday (but mainly after 3-4 AM), a weak upper wave arriving from the west will generate at least a narrow, generally west-east oriented band of chilly light rain. There is some uncertainty on the "exact" placement of this rain band, and rain chances (PoPs) are likely too broad in north-south extent, but consensus of latest models favors the western half of our Nebraska CWA for the highest chances for at least few hundredths of pre-sunrise rain. Briefly touching on precip type, we are expecting this precipitation to be ALL RAIN within our CWA, but please note that some slushy snow could mix in with the rain not all that far west-northwest of our CWA (out over the Sandhills), so again, this will be a chilly rain. As for temps, am counting on a mix of continued low clouds and then quite a few mid-high clouds arriving from the west (especially post-midnight) to keep things from "tanking" too far...and some places could see lows reached closer to midnight with steady/very slightly rising temps thereafter as clouds/precip arrives. If anything nudged up lows very slightly from previous, aiming most of the CWA between 35-39 degrees. Although this is technically cold enough for at least limited frost development (especially far northwest), the increasing clouds and/or rain moving in should largely prove unfavorable, and we don't have any frost in the official forecast.

- TUESDAY DAYTIME: It's becoming pretty clear that this will be the overall-coolest and (in various places) overall-wettest daytime of the week. Aloft, the next low amplitude shortwave trough swings directly through the Central Plains, driving continued chances for at least scattered light rain showers especially within our Nebraska counties (lower chances in KS). We're certainly not talking big amounts (most places no more than 0.05-0.20"), but we'll take what we can get! A rogue rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, but with such meager instability have omitted from official forecast. Temperature-wise, if anything nudged down highs very slightly from previous, with most of our CWA (especially Nebraska) aimed 49-54, and the majority of any mid- upper 50s focused in KS. Finally, it will not be as windy as today, with speeds mainly around 10 MPH out of the north to northeast.

- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Right away early in the evening (mainly pre-nightfall) we could still see some lingering light rain showers in our north- northeast zones, and perhaps a few showers sneaking into our far southwestern zones out of southwestern NE. However, high confidence that it's dry through the night most all areas (especially beyond 10 PM). Winds will only average around 5 MPH or less from a mainly northerly or westerly direction. That leaves cloud cover (and resultant temperatures) as the "million dollar question" that could ultimately make-or-break the development of frost and/or slightly sub-freezing temps. Unfortunately, there is some uncertainty here, but our latest forecast is geared toward "mostly clear skies with patches of lower stratus here or there"). Assuming this plays out, temps should have no problem dropping well into the 31-36 range most places, with areas of frost a decent bet. That being said, IF low stratus remains more stubborn, it could remain a few-to- several degrees warmer. Given these modest uncertainties, refrained from issuing any Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Warnings on this shift, but these will be strongly considered within the next 24 hours. One one final note, we could also perhaps see some patchy fog development, but have kept this out of the official forecast for now.

- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT: Aloft, our area will reside under west-northwesterly flow, as a few fairly weak disturbances brush through our area. At the surface, the main feature will be a weak cold front dropping through from the north on Thursday. Precipitation-wise, while most of Wed daytime will remain dry, isolated showers/weak thunderstorms could drift into mainly our northern/western counties late Wed afternoon into Wed night, with additional chances for isolated/scattered activity targeting mainly our southern/southwestern CWA Thursday daytime-evening before rain chances vacate southward late.

Temperature-wise, highs both days are fairly similar (mainly low-mid 60s). As for overnight lows, Wed night appears a touch warmer given more clouds and areas of rain, with lows mainly upper 30s-low 40s and thus minimal frost concerns. However, Thurs night-Fri AM looks chillier (lows mainly low-mid 30s) and perhaps more favorable for frost and/or slightly sub-freezing temps.

- FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Fairly high confidence in our going dry forecast, as we reside under rather benign north-northwesterly flow aloft (to the west- southwest of a large-scale low centered over the eastern Great Lakes region). Friday looks to be our final "coolish" day with highs low-mid 60s, with Saturday then turning about 10 degrees warmer (mainly low-mid 70s) as breezes turn southerly. One final opportunity for frost development could arise Fri night-Sat AM before the warm-up commences.

- SUNDAY-MONDAY: While latest ECMWF/GFS suggests that most of these two days will be dry, they also both show some spotty light shower potential mainly Sunday-Sunday night as an upper wave passes through in the continued north-northwesterly flow aloft (our official forecast currently assigns most of these small rain chances to Sunday night). Temperature-wise, some guidance suggests our forecast could be aiming a touch too warm, but for now we are calling for highs mainly mid 70s both days, with MAYBE our far south-southwestern counties touching 80.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR to low-end VFR ceiling (commonly 2-4K ft. AGL) expected to prevail through at least the vast majority of the period, although exactly which side of the MVFR-VFR breakpoint ceiling falls on carries some uncertainty (especially beyond the first 12 hours, during which time confidence is highest in MVFR). High confidence in dry conditions through at least the first 15 hours, but then increasing chances for light rain/rain showers through the final 9 hours or so (very late overnight through early Tuesday afternoon). For now have introduced these chances with PROB30 groups, but later TAFs will need to consider introducing TEMPO and/or prevailing.

Turning to winds, by far the strongest speeds of the period are right away this afternoon...out of the northwest and commonly sustained around 20KT/gusts 25-30KT. This evening and especially late tonight, wind speeds decrease as direction trends more northerly to eventually northeasterly, with sustained speeds largely at-or-below 10KT from 06Z onward.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.