textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather today with highs in the 70s to around 80.

- Scattered storms possible along a cold front Monday evening with more widespread rain chances Monday night.

- Scattered off and on showers expected throughout the day Tuesday and Wednesday, most likely along and south of the NE/KS border.

- Cooler temperatures on Tuesday/Wednesday with highs in the 50s, but temperatures climb back above normal by the end of the forecast period.

UPDATE

Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 40s and 50s with partly cloudy skies. Aloft the area is under northwesterly flow, with an embedded disturbance moving through the Plains. This disturbance will push a cold front through the area this morning as winds shift to the north behind the front. Another pleasant day is expected across the area with highs in the 70s to around 80 in north central Kansas. A few weak showers that develop over western Nebraska may move into northwestern portions of the area during the late evening hours. Have kept this PoP limited to sprinkles given large model spread on if it happens and where it impacts. Regardless these showers will steadily weaken after sunset as stability increases.

Southerly flow builds over the area Monday morning ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Highs climb into the 70s and 80s during the day, warmest across north central Kansas. A cold front pushes through the area Monday afternoon, with the front reaching the NE-KS border by the mid-evening hours (6-8pm). Models keep the front largely dry through the afternoon, but quickly develop storms during the evening hours. There is some uncertainty on how widespread thunderstorm development will be along the front, however at least scattered storms appear possible, most likely along/east of Highway 281. Moisture return on Monday looks to be limited, keeping instability fairly low across the area (under 1000 J/Kg). The limited instability keeps the best chances for severe storms east/southeast of the area, though a few stronger storms capable of producing small hail and gusty winds can't be ruled out. More widespread showers/storms (40-75% PoPs) build over the area Monday night behind the front.

Scattered to widespread showers and storms continue Tuesday and Wednesday as troughing deepens and merges with an upper level low over the southwest. This will result in off and on showers throughout this time period (30-70% PoPs), most likely/frequent for areas along and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border. Steady cold air advection and widespread cloud coverage keeps highs in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and makes for a cold rain. Overall, accumulations look to range from 0.10" or less (north) to around 0.5" (south). Temperatures climb back above normal by the end of next week as northwesterly flow rebuilds over the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Currently through Sunday...

Quiet conditions continue to reign across the Central Plains this afternoon...with the entire day having sunny skies. Looking in the upper levels, solidly northwesterly flow remains in place across the region...set up between deep troughing working its way toward the East Coast and high pressure/ridging extending northward from the Desert SW. At the surface, high pressure has been gradually sinking south with time today. This brought light/variable winds to start the day...which have turned more southwesterly with time. Speeds across southern areas remain light as they sit closer to that sfc high...the stronger speeds are across northern areas, with gusts at times around 20-25 MPH. Temperatures have worked out fairly well, with obs at 3PM sitting in the mid 60s to near 70.

Overall, no notable changes were made to the forecast through this short term period through the end of the weekend...which remains largely dry. Models are in good agreement showing continued generally northwesterly flow across the region...though becoming less amplified with time as another system is working its way south into central Canada/near the US border. The only mention of precip during this time frame is Sunday evening-night...with models showing the potential for a weak shortwave sparking off activity near the western NE/SD border late in the day. Question is its evolution and whether it is maintained long enough to impact our forecast area...some models say it wanes before then. Not a ton of confidence in those chances at this point.

After seeing plenty of sun today, there is good agreement with increased mid-upper level cloud cover as we get into Sunday...not totally overcast, but looking to be generally partly cloudy, mostly cloudy at times in spots. As far as winds go, late tonight-Sun AM, a weak upper level disturbance crossing to our NE will push a surface frontal boundary south through the region...ushering in a switch to more northerly winds. Not expecting a notable increase in speeds...it's not a strong frontal boundary...and through the day on Sunday, winds lighten a bit, turning more easterly with time. Expecting a slight bump up in temps, with more of the area in the low-mid 70s (vs the upper 60s-low 70s by the end of today).

New work week...

The next best chances for precipitation look to arrive late in the day Monday into the evening-overnight hours. Though the forecast has chances early-mid afternoon...there are at least a handful of models showing that for most, that 18-21Z period is likely dry. These precipitation chances are being driven by a southward push of upper level energy out of central Canada and the Nrn Plains. Activity late in the day is expected to develop in proximity to the accompanying surface cold front...with some lingering uncertainties/differences between models with just exactly where the front ends up. Some models show by 00Z the boundary is near/south of the NE-KS state line...a few are a touch slower/further north. Though winds turn back to the south early in the day Monday...not expecting a notable push of better moisture north before that front arrives...current forecast afternoon dewpoints are only in the 30s to mid 40s (better chance for 50s+ dewpoints currently over eastern KS and far SE Neb.). Expecting another bump up in highs for Monday, reaching into the mid 70s-low 80s, but models have better instability focusing just off to our SE...thus SPC has kept the Day 3 Marginal Risk area over that same area. We'll see how things trend in upcoming model runs.

Between the upper level system near the US/Can border and another shifting east from the West Coast, eventually becoming more phased in with that central CONUS troughing...additional disturbances bring additional precipitation chances through mid- week. Currently, the best chances are focused mainly across the southern half of the forecast area...but have plenty of details to iron out in the coming days. This Tuesday-Wednesday period is also the coolest of this 7-day period...with highs both days mainly in the 50s.

The latter portion of the new week dries back out...with current forecast highs back in the 70s by Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Winds shift to the north over the next couple of hours (12-14z). Sustained winds around 10kts are expected from the mid morning-early afternoon hours, but become lighter during the mid afternoon hours. Winds become light and variable around sunset. SCT-BKN mid-high level clouds are possible throughout TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.