textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-critical to Critical fire weather concerns across much of the area continue. A Red Flag warning is in effect until 10 PM tonight and a Fire Weather Watch is now in effect from noon to 9 PM Tuesday.

- Well above normal temperatures (10-20 degrees above normal) combined with a dry airmass and occasionally breezy/windy conditions will result in additional fire weather concerns through at least the end of the week.

- Rain chances remain limited this week, with more promising precipitation chances potentially returning over the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A noticably warmer and windy day has been realized across the local area with many locations climbing into the mid-80s the past few hours. With southwest winds gusting near 40 MPH at times, critical fire weather concerns are being observed across much of the area, and anticipate the Red Flag warning to remain in effect until 10 PM this evening.

A weak cold front is expected to rapidly push south across the area by Tuesday morning, bringing with it a shift in winds and a continuation of dry air in its wake. While temperatures may be a few degrees cooler behind this front, the main impact will be the breezy north winds that will sweep across the local area through the daytime hours. These breezy winds...gusting to near 35 MPH...will combine with low relative humidity values to promote another afternoon with heightened fire weather concerns.

High pressure aloft will then push back across the local area for Wednesday and Thursday, helping temperatures climb to near or over 90 degrees by Thursday afternoon. At the same time Thursday, winds will increase significantly out of the south ahead of the next system, with gusts over 40 MPH anticipated for the afternoon hours. As the front approaches the local area, could see a return to some widely scattered Thunderstorm Thursday afternoon or evening firing up near the dry line to our west, but little if any precip is anticipated locally. While the main upper level low is then anticipated to pass well to our north on Friday, the associated front should cross the area bringing with it another shift in wind direction, but likely no noticeable cool-down.

Better chances for precip then return over the upcoming weekend as a stronger upper level trough and front reach the area Saturday afternoon/evening. This system will likely provide the forcing for more active weather across the local area, with the potential for a few severe storms not out of the question. Will continue to monitor, but the day 6 SPC outlook brings the 15% severe line just a few counties south of our local coverage area and model soundings indicate plenty of instability and shear across the local area for some organized elevated storms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Gusty southerly winds blowing between 10-15kts tonight and gusting as high as 25-30kts will maintain through most of the night. A cold front passing through in the morning (12-14z) will steer winds abruptly to the north. Winds behind the front will pick right back up to their same strength as before (15-20 kts and gusting as high as 25-30kts). The northerly winds will eventually lighten across the evening hours. Ongoing LLWS tonight from the presence of a southwest oriented 40-50kt nocturnal low-level jet will remain on tap through 12-13z. Only a few clouds today will keep conditions VFR with no chance of precipitation.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Gusty southwest winds and low relative humidity values are resulting in near critical to critical fire weather conditions across the local area this afternoon and the Red Flag warning remains in effect until 10 PM this evening.

A cold front will cross the local area Tuesday morning, but this front will bring mainly a wind shift, with north winds potentially gusting up to 35 mph behind this front. Given the dry airmass, a Fire Weather Watch was issued for parts of south central Nebraska from noon to 9 PM Tuesday, although at least near-critical fire weather concerns are anticipated area-wide.

Wednesday remains very warm and dry, but will feature a reprieve in winds for some of the area. Unfortunately, western zones (near/west of Highway 183) are still likely to see gusts around 25 MPH in the afternoon hours.

Thursday is potentially shaping up to be the most concerning fire weather day of the week. There is some uncertainty on how warm we will actually get and how much moisture will advect northward - impacting relative humidity values, but many areas could approach/exceed 90 degrees, aided by very strong south winds... possibly gusting 40 MPH+ in some areas.

Friday is expected to have significantly lighter winds than Thursday, but still remains relatively warm and dry.

The weekend also has the potential for additional fire weather concerns as a system moves through the central Plains.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-006-017-018.