textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A few weak showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will continue to skirt our far southern counties through the predawn hours. Additional shower and weak thunderstorm development is possible further north around midday, lifting northeast through the afternoon hours. Accumulating precip over this period is expected to be fairly scattered and light (<0.10").

- More widespread showers and perhaps some weak thunderstorms will spread SW to NE across the entire area this evening and overnight into Thursday. The greatest coverage/intensity of rain will occur Wednesday night into Thursday AM, with widespread amounts of 0.50-1.00" of rainfall likely.

- The coolest air of the fall, thus far, along with the first widespread frost of the season remains on tap for the Friday night into Saturday morning time-frame, with some scattered below freezing temperatures increasingly likely - especially in the climatologically coolest spots.

- Dry conditions and moderating temperatures from 60s into the 70s expected this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The upper level low across the four corners area will swing into the plains over the next 24 to 36 hours, providing widespread lift for the development of showers and thunderstorms across the local area beginning this evening and lasting into at least the daytime hours Thursday. This low will then be rapidly ushered east by an upper level trough and cold front coming from the north, which will likely bring the coolest air of the fall to the area so far this season. This scenario will also result in widespread beneficial rainfall amounts, with high probabilities (70-90%) of the entire area seeing at least 0.5" of rainfall and more modest probabilities (30-50%) of seeing 1.0" or greater of rainfall over the next 36-48 hours.

Overall, temperatures were trended down a couple of degrees over the next couple of afternoons due to the presence of ample cloud cover and precipitation, along with slightly cooler temperatures now in the forecast for Saturday morning.

Early this morning, scattered shower and thunderstorm development can be seen on radar just south of the local area, which so far is just barely skirting parts of Osborne and Rooks counties. This activity is being aided by very modest (500ish joules) CAPE values and should remain on the weaker side as it exits stage right over the next few hours. Later this morning, some of the mesoscale models (Such as the 06Z HRRR) are hinting at some more widespread weak convective development near the NE/KS state line...that should lift north into our Nebraska counties during the afternoon hours. This activity is NOT the main event, and likely won't amount to a whole lot for most of the area, with the more widespread and heavier rain shield expected with the upper level low itself starting later this evening and likely lasting through the daytime hours Thursday.

Again, no major changes to the previous forecast this cycle as both the mesoscale and global models remain in good agreement through the short term periods.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Almost the entire forecast area remains socked in with low clouds and chilly NNE breeze. As a result, temperatures have really struggled today, even in the far S/SE, with current readings only in the 50s. There remains a chance (20-50%) for some scattered showers/storms late this afternoon and evening, but as alluded to yesterday, the main focus has shifted to the S/SE closer to the surface front. There's a non-zero chance for a strong storm, or two, with small hail per latest SPC Day 1 Outlook...but think this is limited to Mitchell County, at best. Some forecast guidance attempts to clear us out quite a bit late this evening, then brings in a new batch of clouds right around dawn when lows are typically made...which makes for a tricky low temperature forecast. Will definitely be a chilly night/morning, but we don't completely decouple the winds, and the arrival of more clouds near dawn should preclude any significant frost concerns.

Cloudy and cool conditions persist all day Wednesday and Thursday, and eventually some areas of light to moderate rain (with embedded weak thunderstorms) will work through the area as well. General expectation is for scattered activity to gradually increase from SW to NE throughout the day on Wednesday, with perhaps some areas of drizzle to preclude the organized rain. So not a very pleasant day for outdoor activities, factoring in a steady/chilly NE breeze, as well. Appears the greatest coverage and intensity of rain will come Wednesday night into Thursday AM, before gradually tapering off Thursday afternoon and evening. Activity looks to be most stubborn to taper off Thursday afternoon across areas N of I-80. Latest EPS ensemble remains consistent in that the 25-75th percentile is largely in the 0.25-0.75" range for total rainfall. 90th percentile data, along with other deterministic output, suggests localized higher amounts around 1" will be possible - particularly with any weak convective elements.

Skies will clear out some Thursday night into Friday morning, but steady Nrly flow should preclude widespread frost concerns for one more night. The same can NOT be said for Friday night into Saturday AM. This period looks to be a classic fall-season setup for widespread frost - light winds or weak return flow, clear or mostly clear skies, recent rainfall (damp low levels), and seasonably strong high pressure. Not surprised to see guidance continue to trend colder with lows Sat AM, and the official blend now takes portions of the area to or below freezing. Suspect this will be most widespread across the central and western third of the CWA.

Forecast is pretty quiet beyond the Sat AM frost. Temperatures should warm nicely during the day Saturday into the 60s amidst plentiful sunshine, then further into the upper 60s to 70s on Sunday. Bottom line, this weekend looks like a nearly picture- perfect fall weekend. Fairly quiet weather and continued warming (perhaps back into the lower 80s for some?) is favored for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR continued at the terminals overnight with low level stratus evident on satellite to the southwest and northeast of both sites. Expect this low level stratus to eventually fill in over the next few hours, with prevailing MVFR CIGS likely returning to both terminals by 14/16Z. While there could be an isolated light SHRA or TSRA this afternoon, better chances come after around midnight, and introduced MVFR VSBYS and IFR CIGS aft 15/07Z to cover the expected rain shield that should overtake the area overnight tonight.

Overall, sustained winds will be primarily north to northeasterly through the period with a few gusts 15KT+ possible during the afternoon hours later today.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.