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KEY MESSAGES

- Models continue to show the potential for fog development as we get into the early morning hours...a few spots already have visibilities near 2SM. Will be watching trends closely for the need for a Dense Fog Advisory.

- Main story for this weekend is the return of summer heat. After a couple days with cooler temps, highs rocket back into the 90s-low 100s. Heat index values today are widespread around 105 degrees...could be closer to 110 degrees for Sunday. Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area from noon today through Monday evening. Will be seeing how models trend with Sunday...not out of the question an upgrade to an Ext. Heat Warning may be needed.

- Today through Monday, the vast majority of the area remains dry. Some models try to clip far NNE portions of the area with iso-sct activity Sunday evening...confidence in that is not high. A few more periodic chances return Tuesday on...again confidence in those chances is not high.

UPDATE

Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The light/variable winds and ample low-level moisture has allowed for the development of fairly widespread visibilities near/less than 1/2SM...shown by automated stations as well as area webcams. After collab with neighbors, issued a Dense Fog Advisory...which is in effect through 10AM.

UPDATE

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Currently through the rest of tonight...

Quiet conditions currently reign across the area...with the main concern through the rest of tonight lying with fog potential. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing continued west-northwesterly flow in place across the region. Pattern for our forecast area remains driven by upper level ridging, centered roughly near/just east of the Four Corners region...sandwiched between low pressure/troughing just off the Pac NW coast and troughing working its way through the Great Lakes region. Satellite imagery also showing little in the way of cloud cover currently, with just far NErn areas seeing some lower level stratus. At the surface, an overall weak pattern is keeping winds on the light side, and generally southeasterly.

Already seeing some automated sites with visibilities below 5SM...with models showing the potential for greater coverage of fog and lower visibilities developing as we get more into the early morning hours today. Not out of the question that a Dense Fog Adv may be needed...will be keeping a close eye on trends with sensors and webcams over the next few hours.

This weekend into Monday...

The main story for this weekend into the start of the new work week continues to lie with the return of summer heat.

As far as precipitation chances go, models still showing little overall change in the upper level pattern...keeping that ridge axis in the area, and the forecast for the vast majority of the forecast area remains dry. The lone exception with this forecast package lies on Sunday evening, with some small 20 percent chances clipping far NNE portions of the area. Not all models agree, but some show the potential for a shortwave disturbances riding around the edge of the ridging digging far enough some to bring some scattered chances for showers/storms. At this point, these chances aren't anything to get too excited about as far as appreciable rain goes.

The lack of notable changes in the upper level pattern/ridging will keep that hotter airmass in place across the region. After a couple of days with cooler temps, highs rocket back well into the 90s/near 100 degrees today...with more upper 90s-low 100s possible for Sun-Mon. No changes were made to the Heat Advisory...which remains in effect CWA-wide, running from noon today on through Monday evening. Solid area of heat index values near 105 are forecast for today...and looking ahead to Sunday, not out of the question that more widespread values closer to 110 may occur. Will see how models trend with temps/dewpoints, but an upgrade to Extreme Heat Warning is not out of the question for Sunday. There looks to be at least a little relief via winds...today's SErly winds top out around 10-15 MPH, Sunday's more Srly winds currently have more solid 15-ish MPH winds. At this point, Monday's forecast heat index values are closer to today than Sunday...but again will see how models trend.

Mid-late week...

No notable changes were made to the forecast for the latter half of this forecast period. The overall pattern remains driven by that upper level ridging...and while there are a few more precipitation chances in the forecast, those chances will be dependent on how those periodic shortwave disturbances track along the northern edge of the ridge. Not a ton of confidence in any of the chances at this point. Forecast highs Tuesday on are a touch 'cooler'...currently topping out mainly in the low-mid 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 419 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS: Honestly, it was this forecaster's first true 7-day forecast shift in a while, so am admittedly lacking much "personal history" with recent trends. Overall though, a quick comparison of our previous (overnight shift) forecast to this latest one reveals primarily minor/limited changes.

Temperature and heat index wise: If anything, expected peak heat index values have crept a touch higher for Saturday (remaining similar for Sunday-Monday). Barring any unforeseen cloud issues and/or outflow boundaries getting in the mix, all three afternoons/early evenings should feature widespread peak heat index 100-110, with at least localized spots mainly within Nebraska counties east of Hwy 281 (where dewpoints/humidity will be highest) at least briefly creeping above 110 heat index. Although 110+ is technically our Extreme Heat Warning criteria, at least for now we are calling for small enough of an area to breach 110+ for only a limited amount of time...that was comfortable just keeping a Heat Advisory in place through all three days at this time.

Rain/thunderstorm potential: As touched on in Key Messages above, parts of the Saturday night-Sunday night time frame might not be truly "guaranteed" dry...despite our lack of official mentionable rain chances in our official forecast (which need to be 15+% to be included). Although still over 48 hours away and carrying a high degree of uncertainty, what likely bears most watching is Sunday evening- overnight, during which time there is limited model support (albeit including the often-reliable ECMWF) for thunderstorm to TRY slipping into our mainly our far northern/northeast counties. IF this occurs, probably cannot rule out the potential for a strong to marginally-severe storm, and we'll acknowledge here that SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe (level 1 of 5) to some of our northern/northeast counties on their latest Day 3 Outlook.

- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Fri. July 31): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM: Once the last of any spotty measurable showers moved out by around sunrise this morning, the main question today was how efficiently an expansive lower stratus cloud deck would clear, and the resultant impact on temps. In short, the low stratus has proven slower/more stubborn to clear across especially the majority of our Nebraska CWA, with cloudy/mostly cloudy conditions still hanging tough at this time in most places, in turn keeping current temps in the 70s. In fairly sharp contrast, no worse than partly cloudy (if not mostly sunny) skies have prevailed this afternoon within our KS zones along with some of our western-most Nebraska counties (such as Dawson/Furnas), allowing temps to quickly rise into the 80s and even low 90s.

As we get into late afternoon/evening, clouds should continue to SLOWLY scatter out/break up from west-to-east and south-to- north, but probably not in time to get our entire central/eastern CWA into the 80s as earlier expected (if nothing else, official daytime highs will likely be later-than-usual).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm that we remain under northwesterly flow aloft, directed between a prominent upper ridge/high centered over the Four Corners region, and a broad trough positioned from the Great Lakes region into the northeast states. At the surface, the pressure gradient is weak...keeping wind speeds mainly well under 10 MPH across the majority of our CWA..with direction mainly from the south- southeast.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Although a few showers could try developing slightly east of our CWA generally along eastern parts of the NE/KS border area, confidence is fairly high in our going dry forecast. That leaves the evolution of low clouds and/or fog as the "million dollar question" for tonight. As already mentioned, low clouds have been slower to clear today in many central/eastern counties, and latest RAP low-level RH fields suggest some of our eastern-most Nebraska counties might struggle to clear until closer to 10-11 PM. This raises some concern that fog could develop earlier than currently expected tonight...possibly favoring the western edge of the "clearing line". However, our official forecast is geared more toward the latest HRRR solutions, which keeps us largely fog-free until post-midnight...after which time at least a 50-mile wide corridor of fog (perhaps dense?) could materialize in generally west-southwest to east-northeast fashion across parts of our CWA (currently most favoring central areas). That being said, there is some inherent uncertainty even at this close range (typical of especially summer fog potential), as a light west-southwesterly wind component (downslope) in the boundary layer MIGHT try working against truly dense fog development. In the end, opted to blanket our entire CWA with at least generic "patchy fog" potential for the late night hours, and have acknowledged in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) that at least localized dense fog (and thus a potential Advisory) is possible. Will defer to later shifts for any possible Advisory issuance, however.

Otherwise overnight, low temps are forecast to bottom out mainly 66-71 degrees.

- SATURDAY DAYTIME: Here comes the heat (as the upper high/ridge over the Southwest builds northeastward more into the central U.S.) ! Unlike today, and even IF the morning starts out with lingering fog/dense fog...the shallower nature of the low level moisture should allow skies to clear much faster...paving the way for a sunny/mostly sunny day CWA- wide. As was the case with our last heat wave, various models/guidance are likely aiming a bit too high on actual temps (especially in the northeast half of our CWA where coverage of row crops is most prevalent), and in turn might be slightly under-doing dewpoints/humidity in these same areas. However, even if these errors are in play, these factors should "cancel each other out" to some degree and result in effective heat index values being of reasonably-high confidence. As it currently stands, we're calling for actual high temps mainly 95-100 degrees...and highest heat index mainly 100-109 (supporting the Heat Advisory). Winds will be steady but fairly light (mainly near- to-under 10 MPH) out of the south-southeast during the afternoon...offering minimal relief.

- SATURDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Not expecting any fog issues for a change, and our going dry forecast continues s the dominant upper ridge should shunt vast majority of any convection at least slightly to our north. That being said, latest HRRR hints at some spotty/high-based showers trying to brush into our far northern counties through the night...so this cannot be completely ruled out. In the presence of light southerly winds, overnight low temps only drop into the low-mid 70s.

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: The daytime looks to be another steamy/hot one, albeit with a bit more of a southerly breeze than Saturday (sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts 20+ MPH). Even so, high temps within a few degrees either side of 100 should push max heat index solidly into the 105-110 range most areas.

For Sunday evening-overnight, will need to watch our far northern/eastern counties just in case some showers/storms can sneak in and overcome the vary warm air/capping aloft (as previous mentioned SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk on its latest Day 3 outlook). Low temps again warm...mainly 72-77 degrees.

- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: One final day of notable heat and the last day of the official Advisory, as SLIGHTLY cooler air works in behind a weak "cold front" that will usher in more easterly breezes. Still though, temps/heat index currently aimed very similar to Sunday's values. With slightly better support in the model world versus Sunday night, our official forecast DOES include some low-end thunderstorm chances for Monday evening-overnight as there is better agreement that the dominant ridge weakens enough to allow some convection in from the west.

- TUESDAY-FRIDAY: In short, it remains seasonably warm...but at least slightly cooler than previous days with actual high temps mainly low-mid 90s and heat index values mainly topping out 95-100 each of these four days. Although still of the VERY low confidence variety, we are carrying intermittent chances for showers and what should MAINLY be fairly weak storms (given fairly weak deep layer wind shear).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern for this TAF period comes right off the bat in the first couple of hours, with fog and low level stratus sticking around...bringing LIFR conditions. Conditions will improve back to VFR around mid-late morning...but confidence in the exact timing is still not overly high. Once VFR conditions return, they are expected to last through the during of the period. Light/variable winds early this morning are expected to turn south-southeasterly...with speeds topping out around 10-15 MPH.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007. Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-017>019.