textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/snow showers possible starting during the late afternoon/evening hours (west/southwest) and continuing through Wednesday morning (possible across the entire area). Impacts look to be minimal but a quick dusting of snow is possible.

- Well above normal Temperatures expected Thursday onwards with highs in the upper 40s to low 60s.

- Dry weather expected Wednesday afternoon onwards.

UPDATE

Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently in the 20s. Cloud coverage is increasing over the area as a stratus deck moves into eastern/northeastern portions of the area. A few flurries can't be ruled out in this stratus deck, but the best chances look to be northeast of the forecast area. Highs today will vary from mid 30s across northeastern portions of the area to the low 50s across southwestern portions of the area.

Scattered rain showers move into southwestern portions of the area during the late afternoon hours as a shortwave trough moves into the Plains. The best chances for precipitation through midnight will be for areas mainly along and west of Highway 183. As temperatures cool this evening, rain showers will transition to snow showers. There could be a brief window within this transition where freezing rain/drizzle is possible, but this does not look to be a widespread or significant impact. More widespread chances for precipitation arrive around midnight and continue through the morning hours on Wednesday. Accumulations from any snow showers looks to remain fairly light, though a quick dusting/coating is possible in snow showers. Additionally, breezy winds Wednesday morning could result in brief reductions in visibility in falling snow. After showers depart the area on Wednesday, highs climb into the upper 30s (northeast) to mid 40s (southwest).

Otherwise the forecast remains on track, as highs climb into the 50s and 60s on Thursday. Highs in the upper 40s to low 60s expected through the rest of the forecast period. Dry weather is expected Wednesday afternoon onwards.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Today has been seasonably mild, as expected, under copious high levels clouds. Far W portions of the area have actually warmed into the low to mid 50s behind a sfc trough that swung winds more westerly and resulted in better mixing. Quiet conditions will persist through the evening hours.

A "clipper" system - currently seen in water vapor and regional radar mosaic imagery over the Dakotas - will quickly shift SE tonight. The brunt of the forcing with this wave will remain along and esp. E of the MO River Valley, but could get just enough moisture/lift to squeeze out some flurries and/or light snow showers over our far NE after midnight. Some of the latest hi-res guidance shows some simulated reflectivity lingering along Hwy 81 corridor through late morning. Not expecting much for impacts, if any, given off and on nature of only light snow. To the point, 12Z EPS probabilities were <10% for even a hundredth (0.01") of QPF.

Another quick-moving wave looks to impact the region beginning late Tuesday afternoon or early evening and linger through the overnight. This wave looks to track further W and have a bit more moisture to work with compared to the first wave. However, it will also be a bit warmer (esp. early in the event Tue eve) such that some of the precip will likely fall as mostly liquid. Forecast soundings and plan view plots suggest the rain/snow line may setup directly over the forecast area from NNW to SSE, with more liquid favored W, and wet snow further E, with the dividing line perhaps right along Hwy 281. I do expect some heavier precip rates, but even these heavier rates should be fairly brief for any given location - generally a few hours, or less. Also, with the marginal temperatures, some of the snow will likely melt, esp. at the onset. Road conditions may be slow to respond, as well, given recent treatments over the weekend. So...all this to say that there's probably (likely?) going to be some passing rain/snow showers Tue eve-night, but not expecting more than a few tenths of snow accums, at most. 12Z EPS probs for measurable precip range from only 10-20% along Hwy 81, to more than 70% along Hwy 283. Probabilities for more than a dusting of snow are near 0. Last item to note...removed any mention of freezing rain/drizzle from the forecast. Forecast soundings suggest it'll be a fairly "clean" transition and not one that truly favors impactful freezing rain. It may be rain/snow mix at 32-33 degrees, but falling rain at 30 degrees, or colder, appears very unlikely.

The rest of the forecast is quiet and turning rather mild. Wednesday will be a bit of a transition day with perhaps some lingering flurries in the AM, but Thursday-Friday should be much warmer in the 50s and 60s. Winds look a tad breezy on Thursday, but RHs don't "scream" significant fire weather concerns at this time. Latest ensembles are in good agreement that above normal temps will persist through the weekend. EPS and GEPS means are actually quite mild in the mid 50s to mid 60s, whereas the GEFS is a bit cooler in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Regardless, should be a nice weekend with no winter weather concerns.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR stratus is expected to move into KGRI/KEAR over the next few hours. MVFR stratus will persist through into the afternoon hours, but be lowest during the morning hours. Briefly IFR ceilings are possible at KGRI behind the initial MVFR stratus deck, but confidence in this occurring is too low to include a TEMPO group, but an amendment may be needed. VFR conditions will return by the late afternoon-evening hours as the stratus deck rises, and continue into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Late in the TAF period another round of MVFR stratus moves into KGRI/KEAR along with a chance for snow showers at KEAR. POP chances are too low at KGRI to include in the TAF at this time, but would be similar to KEAR. Any snow would see sub-VFR visibility and low MVFR to IFR ceilings with a dusting of snow possible. Northwesterly winds at or under 10kts are expected throughout the TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.