textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A handful of severe storms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado will be possible between 3-8PM today. The severe threat will mainly be for places near and east of HWY-81.

- A few showers, areas of drizzle and non-severe thunderstorms will be possible later this morning to afternoon across areas outside of the severe threat.

- Highs, following the passage of a cold front today, will peak in the 50s and 60s for much of the area. A few north central Kansas locations as well as far southeast nebraska areas could see highs in the 70s.

- The next chance of precipitation will come Wednesday night (40-50% chance).

- Highs the rest of the week will stay in the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday, the low to mid 70s for Friday and the upper 70s to low 80s for Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Today...

Severe storms will again be possible across a few of the same locations that have observed severe weather across the past two days (Primarily north central Kansas and Nebraska locations east of HWY- 81). A persisting trough that has stalled out across the intermountain west region this past weekend will once more steer a southwesterly jet overtop of the Central Plains today. A cold front this morning resides across parts of central Kansas and eastern Nebraska. This feature will become the day's primary storm forcing mechanism. The cooler and drier airmass behind the front should dampen the severe weather potential for much of our northwest half of the area including our central/Tri-Cities area (though showers and weak storms may still be possible). Highs in response to the gusty cool air advecting winds behind the front should also struggle to break out of the 50s to low 60s beyond a few north central Kansas and far southeast Nebraska locations.

As far as the storms go this afternoon (between 3-8PM), all convective types will be possible with all hazards in the mix (large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes). A warm, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the cold front will offer plenty of energy to allow storms to erupt and quickly become severe (up to 1,500- 4,000J/kg of MUCAPE). Southerly winds ahead of the front and underneath the southwesterly jet will provide enough shear for a few supercells to spin, though the strong frontal forcing should prevent storms from staying isolated for too long (squall/MCS will be favored). With how far the cold front has advanced today, its is unlikely for the severe storms to impact much of our local area (mainly for areas near and east of HWY-81 and for a few north central Kansas locations). Only a southeast sliver of the area (areas southeast of a line from York, NE to Osborne, KS) has been included in a slight (level 2 of 5) or enhanced (level 3 of 5) severe weather outlook.

Though the severe storms are expected to mainly stay concentrated to the southeast of most of the area, widespread drizzle, light rain and some non-severe thunderstorms will still be possible for part of the morning and afternoon hours today. Up to 0.5" of precipitation may be possible.

Tuesday & Wednesday...

Cooler temperatures will take over on Tuesday and Wednesday following the passage of the cold front today. Highs are forecast to remain in the 60s with overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s. The formation of frost may have to be monitored closely across a few locations closer to the Nebraska sandhills Tuesday night as winds look to calm overnight. These calming winds will be a result from the high pressure center swooping in near the middle of the week. The next chance for precipitation will not come until Wednesday night (40-50% chance) as a weak shortwave disturbance potentially comes pivoting out of the Rockies.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The main concern in this forecast revolves around severe convection today and on Monday.

Currently, most of the area is in the warm sector, with a cold front pushing in from the west, and a dryline/triple-point expected to push in from the southwest this afternoon. The eastern half of the area should be quite unstable by late afternoon, the MLCAPE values likely in the 2000-4000 J/kg range. If anything, CAMs have trended a bit further west with storm initiation...possibly as early as 4pm...but becoming more likely by around 5pm in the Highway 281 corridor. Strong deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercells, potentially merging into multiple line segments later into the evening hours. Confidence in coverage is highest in northern parts of the area and southern portions of the area, areas to the south and east of Hastings may not

Generally the entire area near/east of Highway 281 has some threat for tornado today, although the highest risk is expected to be north and east of Grand Island where low-level shear is maximized. Sig-tor parameter (STP) values of 5-7+ are forecast by the RAP/mesoanalysis, which is a quite substantial indicator of tornado potential.

A storm or two may approach western areas later this evening, but are expected to weaken as the move into the area in the 8-10pm timeframe. Most of our Nebraska counties should be storm-free by 8-9pm, but southern portions of the area have potential for a longer-duration event, with storms continuing to build near and just north of I-70. If this occurs, localized flooding is possible (mainly Mitchell/Osborne counties), although this will depend exactly on where storms setup.

Monday will start off cloudy and relatively cool, with potentially some showers/drizzle in the morning and early afternoon. An additional round of convection is expected to develop along the stalled front. Less of the area is expected to be impacted than today and Saturday, but nevertheless, portions of northern KS, along with the Hwy 81 corridor could see severe storms in the 3-8pm timeframe.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9pm today for southwestern zones that are expected to see a quick burst of dry air behind the dryline this afternoon. After today, the overall fire weather threat is relatively low for the rest of this week.

Not much time was spent on the longer-range forecast. Temperatures remain below-normal through midweek, then gradually warm back up into the Memorial Day weekend. Rain/t-storm chances also return to the forecast by the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A low deck of stratus will remain in place through the full day and night. MVFR ceilings this morning will soon drop into IFR ceilings (by 13-15z). IFR ceiling will likely remain in place until 22-4z, first lifting from KEAR over KGRI.

A period of drizzle to light rain is possible to impact both terminals between 14 and 20z. There is a low-end chance for a thunderstorm to be in the KGRI vicinity between 22-2z.

Otherwise, winds will remain out of a northerly direction through the day (340-030 degrees) with speeds sustaining near 15-20kts and gusting as high as 25-35kts.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.