textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect for most of our forecast area (all except a few far western counties) through 11 AM today.

- A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this evening-overnight, but the areal coverage of storms will likely be pretty limited within our forecast area (many places more likely to see light rain/drizzle than actual convection).

- There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding temperatures and placement of precipitation on Friday-Friday evening. Snow may impact portions of the area (mainly far north-northwest) as well as perhaps severe storms (mainly far east-southeast). Any snow accumulation appears rather minimal, but falling snow/gusty winds could reduce visibility for a time.

UPDATE

Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

As the stratus deck that impacted the local area the past couple of days stayed east of the area overnight, mostly clear skies allowed fairly widespread dense fog to develop across the area. While this fog is fairly shallow, it is still reducing visibilities below 1/4 of a mile across much of the area and a dense fog advisory remains in effect for all but our 3 western most counties (Gosper, Furnas, and Dawson), where any fog should be more patchy and less dense to start the day.

As winds increase out of the south later this morning, expect visibilities to rapidly improve across the area and for a mostly sunny, mild, and breezy afternoon. As moisture continues to increase in this southerly flow, expect instability to build, and for some elevated thunderstorms to be possible across the local area tonight, forced by an increasing LLJ. With the focus of this jet towards eastern Nebraska, confidence in storm coverage is on the lower side, with additional thunderstorm formation possible along the approaching cold front approaching from the northwest during the pre-dawn hours Friday.

Depending on how far east this front tracks on Friday will have an impact on both temperatures and storm coverage, with quite a gradient (upper 40s NW and lower 70s SE) expected in afternoon temperatures Friday...and the best chance for any severe weather to be limited to the warm side of the front during the afternoon/early evening hours. Latest (06Z) HRRR and other models keep the better looking convection mostly outside of our area Friday PM, limiting confidence in any severe storms locally (although they may not be far outside our area either).

Finally, on the backside of this system Friday night, expect temperatures to plummet and for a transition of rain to snow with some light snowfall accumulations possible mainly northwest of the tri-cities, with less than 1 inch expected to reach a Kearney to Grand Island to Greeley line. Even so, with strong northwest winds on the backside of this front, could see some reduced visibilities in any snowbands late Friday night/early Saturday AM, and some wording has been added to the HWO to cover this possibility.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

An upper level trough is over the central Plains with another upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are light and variable. Skies across the area are gradually clearing from west to east. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to warm up into the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Light south to southeast winds will be present tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies. Fog may develop tonight due to the above mentioned conditions. Models are not in agreement on fog development so confidence is medium (around 50%). Patchy fog was added areawide to the grids tonight into Thursday morning but this may need to be upgraded to widespread dense fog with a possible advisory being issued.

Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will increase out of the southeast to south on Thursday. A lee surface trough will develop across eastern Colorado, western Nebraska, and western Kansas on Thursday in response to an approaching upper trough. Temperatures across the area are expected to warm up into the 60s and low 70s. Upper lift from the approaching upper trough as well as lift from an approaching cold front will move across the area Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will increase across the area with dewpoints reaching into the 50s across much of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop beginning Thursday evening/night. Not expecting much in the way of severe weather due to very low CAPE but moderate lapse rates and atmospheric lift and high wind shear could result in a few strong to marginally severe storms. Low temperatures Thursday night may range from the 30s to the 50s depending on the location of the cold front.

Rain and storms may continue into the day on Friday with the cold front moving into the area. There is much uncertainty with high temperatures on Friday due to the timing of the front. High temperatures on Friday may range from the 40s in the north to the 70s in the south. High temperatures may be reached for most areas during the morning hours depending on the timing of the front. There will also be precipitation development behind the front but there is uncertainty if much of the Hastings forecast area will be impacted by the precipitation. The most likely areas to experience precipitation will be northern and western areas. The factors that will determine precipitation across the area will be dependent upon the placement of the upper low as well as drier air moving into the area. If precipitation does move into the area behind the cold front, some of it may be in the form of snow due to temperatures possibly dropping near or below freezing. There is even a possibility of severe storms across mainly southeastern portions of the area on Friday depending on the placement of the front and upper low. Any remaining precipitation may linger into Friday night. Temperatures are expected to cool into the 20s and 30s Friday night behind the front.

A surface high will be present across the area on Saturday with high temperatures in the 50s. A warm up is expected Sunday into Monday with highs on Monday in the 70s. A cold front will bring temperatures into the 50s and 60s on Tuesday. Precipitation chances return to the area Monday night into Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 451 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Generally poor conditions will persist for the next few hours at both terminals as LIFR CIGS/VSBYs linger in dense fog through around 05/16Z...with conditions rapidly improving and becoming VFR by 05/18Z as winds increase out of the south...gusting to near 30 KTS during the afternoon hours. Poor conditions will again return tonight, with IFR/LIFR CIGS again settling in...along with some -DZ/BR and possibly even a thunderstorm aft 06/06Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for NEZ039>041- 046>049-061>064-073>077-083>087. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for KSZ005>007- 017>019.