textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- At least spotty, isolated thunderstorms will be possible almost anywhere in our forecast area today, but mostly favoring our Nebraska counties. The majority of this hit-or- miss activity should be weak. However, a few storms could become strong to marginally-severe (perhaps even outside of SPC's current official Marginal Risk area), capable of producing hail up to around the size of quarters, and/or wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

- Following a brief respite from any truly heightened fire weather concerns today, outright-critical conditions return in earnest for Thursday for our entire forecast area (CWA), and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 12-10 PM. Unfortunately, a few more upcoming days could also contain critical fire weather concerns (see separate Fire Weather section below for more details).

- Although looking short of any High Wind criteria, moderately strong northerly gusts of 40+ MPH still look likely behind Friday's rather sharp cold frontal passage.

- Speaking of Friday's cold front, although we still can't completely declare an "all clear" for any stronger thunderstorm threat mainly for our extreme southeastern CWA for late Friday afternoon-evening, models seem to be locking in an a faster-versus-slower cold frontal passage, likely "sparing" our CWA from a more widespread severe threat that should focus at least slightly to our south/east.

- With spring vegetative growth roughly 3 WEEKS "ahead of schedule" per traditional growing degree day (GDD) metrics, we will probably need to issue our first Freeze Warnings and/or Frost Advisories of the season for Saturday AM and/or Sunday AM...for at least slightly-sub-freezing temperatures.

- Peeking just beyond our official 7-day forecast: Another large-scale low pressure system could bring some rain chances (great news) and MAYBE a severe thunderstorm threat (not great, but far from a "sure thing") around next Wednesday (April 22).

UPDATE

Issued at 457 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (for beyond Thursday):

- No truly MAJOR forecast changes to speak of versus previous issuance, although high temps for Friday have come down a good 10-ish degrees (and quite possibly not yet enough) over the past 24 hours as models seem to be honing in on a faster cold frontal passage.

- For all other longer-term-related notes, the highlights are covered in "Key Messages" above, and all detailed fire weather concerns are in a separate "Fire Weather" section below.

-- FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through Thursday evening):

- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: Looking back over the last 12 hours, as expected the vast majority of our CWA was spared any severe storm threat. However, the late afternoon-early evening hours popped a few rogue stronger storms near/just north of a sharp front bisecting our CWA (nickel hail reported in Hordville), while the later evening hours (mainly 10pm-midnight) brought a less surprising, brief flare-up of a few severe storms (including a slightly-elevated supercell) to our far southeastern CWA (mainly affecting Jewell/Mitchell/Thayer counties)...with these storms erupting along the nose of a nocturnal low level jet. In the hours since, the aforementioned strong/severe storms vacated our far southeast counties. the vast majority of our CWA has been dry, with only some spotty showers/brief weak storms focused mainly north of I-80.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm that a large-scale trough and associated primary low pressure system is pushing ever-near to us, it's main vorticity max (spin) noted right over the NE/KS/CO border area. Meanwhile, at the surface, a roughly 1002 millibar low pressure center currently resides over our extreme southeastern CWA (Mitchell County area). To it's north and northwest, nearly our entire CWA is thus "post-frontal", with generally northerly breezes sustained at least 5-15 MPH. Under a varied mix of clear skies and clouds, low temperatures are forecast to bottom out upper 40s-mid 50s across most of our CWA.

- TODAY-EARLY THIS EVENING (through 7-9 PM): Aloft, the aforementioned upper trough/vort max currently to our west will track eastward....directly overhead...over the course of the day, reaching the IA/NE/MO border area by sunset. Meanwhile at the surface, the low pressure center in our far southeast CWA will steadily track/depart east-northeastward today, reaching central IA by evening.

With our CWA positioned entirely behind the departing surface low today (resulting in generally 10-20 MPH breezes through much of the day, gradually shifting from more northerly to more westerly), this will clearly "spare" us from the MAIN severe thunderstorm risk within the greater region...particularly any tornado risk...which will focus within the primary low-level instability/CAPE axis extending from IA/MO southwestward into OK/TX. HOWEVER, with residual low-mid level moisture lingering over our area, along with cooler air aloft under the heart of the upper low passing overhead, this is a rather classic setup for at least a few lines/clusters of isolated-to-scattered showers and mostly-weak thunderstorms to gradually translate across our CWA from west-to-east over the course of the day. While we are carrying at least slight (20%) chances for this activity everywhere, the most concentrated coverage should focus over our Nebraska counties. Getting back to severe potential though, while not high, these setups often yield a FEW strong to perhaps marginally-severe storms, and sometimes "random" funnel clouds that rarely touch down. Whether we actually do end up seeing a couple of rogue severe storms will likely depend on just how much instability/CAPE can be realized, with the latest RAP/HRRR tending to keep CAPE mainly 500 J/kg or less, while the NAM suggests a bit higher potential for CAPE to at least approach 1000 J/kg, which would yield a bit greater potential for a few storms with mainly a quarter size hail and perhaps 60 MPH wind threat. This possible strong/marginally-severe storm threat could be rather "random" in area today, and could even start as early as mid-morning. Officially, SPC has only painted roughly the northeast 1/4th of our CWA in it's official Marginal Risk on the initial Day 1 outlook, but in all reality a rogue severe storm could back into our western counties. In summary: although sparse in coverage, a few strong to MAYBE marginally- severe storms cannot be ruled out today, but any such threat (including all rain chances) should exit our far eastern counties by no later than 7-9 PM as the upper low departs.

In other departments today: confidence in "exact" high temps is not overly-high and will depend on how much clearing is able to occur under the passing upper wave, but ultimately kept similar to previous forecast with most places aimed 71-74 degrees.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Once the back edge of any showers/storms clear our far eastern zones by around sunset, confidence is high in a dry overnight under clear skies. In response to surface low pressure developing over the Dakotas, our breezes will swing around to south-southwesterly, but remain fairly light only around 5-10 MPH. If winds end up a little lighter than forecast, would not be surprised to see low temps drop a little colder than forecast, but for now we're calling for 40-46 most areas, with a few upper 30s possible mainly in Valley/Dawson counties.

- THURSDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING: Unfortunately, our main concerns swing right back to fire weather (see separate section below for more details). Under plentiful sunshine, southerly winds will steadily increase through the day as surface low pressure rapidly deepens to our west off the Front Range/High Plains, with sustained speeds by afternoon commonly around 20 MPH/gusts at least 25-30 MPH. The resultant low-level warm air advection will boost high temps a good 10-15 degrees warmer than today, with our forecast still aiming for highs mainly 83-86 degrees. South-southeast winds will remain elevated well into the night as the strong surface low pressure arrives into western NE...just ahead of a strong cold front poised to slice through Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Today...

The SPC expanded the marginal severe weather risk area into our forecast area along the nearly stationary boundary running from Kearney towards York. We have seen vertical development in the CU field around the Tri-Cities and are getting close to possible thunderstorm development. We could see a few isolated thunderstorms in this narrow frontal zone where moisture has been pooling allowing dewpoints to climb to around 50F. These will mainly be elevated thunderstorms taking advantage of the steep lapse rates, modest MUCAPE values to around 1000 J/KG, and very strong 0-6 km shear (65 kts). Quarter sized hail is the primary threat, but larger DCAPE values over 1200 J/KG suggest that strong wind gusts to 60 mph will also be possible with any of these thunderstorms.

Tonight...

We could see some scattered showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, but most areas will likely stay dry. However, things could get more interesting during the day on Wednesday.

Wednesday...

The last two runs (12Z and 18Z) of the RRFS have been indicating thunderstorm development across our western zones around dawn. These thunderstorms then track northeast through the morning, could impact the Tri-Cities, and exit our northeastern forecast area early Wednesday afternoon (likely before 3 PM). Although our forecast area is not currently outlooked for severe weather, it is possible that the severe weather threat area may need to be expanded to include some of our Nebraska counties. The main threat will again be hail and wind through early afternoon.

Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoon along with cooler 60s behind the storm system may result in it feeling not as nice as one might expect.

Thursday...

This is a high confidence warm day with highs back into the 80s. It should be dry and we have some fire weather concerns, please see the fire weather section below.

Friday Through next Weekend...

A big open wave upper trough will race across the plains, but the timing is not favorable for our area to see much if any precipitation. An expected Friday morning frontal passage will likely result in falling temperatures on Friday. Our forecast is probably too warm and would not be surprised if see some areas falling into the 40s Friday afternoon. Even if it starts out nice Friday morning across our southeastern zones, it probably won't end very nice behind that cold front. Fire weather is again a concern. Please see the fire weather section below.

Monday and Tuesday...

The cold will be short lived and we should quickly see a warmer weather pattern return ahead of a developing western United States Trough. That trough could bring us some mid week rain. We'll have to see as it's still a long ways off.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Can't rule out some isolated-scattered showers over the next few hours, but the better chances tonight look to remain focused to the southeast of the terminal areas. Have VFR conditions the rest of tonight...with winds remaining north-northeasterly around 10-15 MPH. During the daytime hours today, another round of showers/storms will push east through the area, mainly from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. With uncertainties with the overall coverage, kept the mention in a PROB30 group. Also included in that mid-morning through early afternoon group is the potential for MVFR ceilings...though latest run of models have backed off that potential a touch. Precip expected to end by late afternoon, with the rest of this period dry. Winds during the day are expected to turn more northwesterly, then more westerly...some gusts near 25 MPH are not out of the question. Evening hours will bring the potential for more variable wind direction.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Although spotty pockets of beneficial rain occurred overnight and will continue into today across parts of our forecast area (CWA), the coverage of truly appreciable rain over the coming days continues to look pretty lackluster. As a result, and because spring green-up has yet to fully take hold, we continue to monitor for potentially critical fire weather conditions on some upcoming afternoons.

- THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Following a brief respite from any truly heightened fire weather concerns today, outright-critical conditions return in earnest for Thursday for our entire forecast area (CWA). As a surface low pressure system deepens to our west, southerly winds will reach solidly-breeze levels...commonly sustained around 20 MPH and gusting at least 25-30 MPH. Meanwhile, as high temperatures again jump back up into the at least the mid-80s, relative humidity (RH) will plunge to 10-20 percent. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 12-10 PM Thursday for our entire forecast area...running a bit later than "usual" given that RH is expected to be slow-to-rise much above 20-30% until after dark.

- FRIDAY AFTERNOON: While moderately strong north winds are a certainty as a cold front slices southward through our region (gusts at least 40 MPH likely at times), fortunately the temperature forecast continues to trend cooler with time...keeping RH from really "tanking". In fact, none of our CWA is currently projected to see RH drop below the 20% critical threshold. That being said, primarily our KS counties could see near-critical RH down to at least 25%, so it's still a day with some fire weather concerns.

- SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Despite being by far the coolest day of the next week (high temps only in the 50s most places), very dry air will nonetheless drive afternoon RH down to at least 15-25%, while northwest winds gusts at least 25-35 MPH. Thus, solidly near- critical to critical conditions are currently forecast area- wide...but overall-worst in our western half.

- SUNDAY-MONDAY: Sunday currently looks like another "one day break" from critical fire weather concerns, thanks mainly to somewhat- lighter winds. However, another warm-up accompanied by gusty south winds makes Monday another early candidate for potentially widespread critical conditions.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.