textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 AM to 9 PM today for portions of south central and central Nebraska.

- Freezing rain and freezing drizzle expected with some snow. Total ice accumulations ranging from a trace to near a tenth of an inch.

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect until noon for much of the area.

- Slick spots on roads and low visibilities may cause travel concerns today.

UPDATE

Issued at 456 AM CST FRI Jan 2 2026

Fog has developed across much of south central and central Nebraska. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect along and east of a line from Ord to Kearney to Smith Center until noon today. Fog development may be hindered across some areas due to high clouds overhead. Freezing fog is a concern with temperatures now mostly below freezing. A thin glaze of ice due to the fog may be present on roads and sidewalks for the morning commute. The fog is expected to dissipate by noon as the winds switch from the northeast to the east and southeast and as temperatures get warmer. Freezing drizzle and freezing rain are expected to move in from the west and northwest across portions of the forecast area beginning around 6 AM and continuing until around midnight tonight. Snow may be present across portions of the area especially this afternoon and evening. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Ice amounts are expected to range from around a trace to around a tenth of an inch. The highest ice accumulations are expected from Valley County southeastward towards York County. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM this evening along and east of a line from Valley County southward toward Hamilton and York Counties. Areas further south and west of this advisory may experience very light ice accumulations but confidence is lower so did not include them in the advisory at this time.

Changes to the forecast include a slight increase to precipitation chances today and this evening to account for recent model development of precipitation. Another change to the forecast is lowering high temperatures today across mainly the area with the highest chances of precipitation. Some locations to the north and east of the Tri-Cities area may not get above freezing today. Temperatures tonight are mainly expected to be in the low to mid 20s with patchy fog developing across portions of the area. An increase in temperatures is expected this weekend into early next week with another cold front arriving mid to late next week. Dry conditions are expected this weekend through mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, INCLUDING ANY CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES WORTH MENTIONING:

- As hit on in Key Message #1 above, concern for at least a pesky/nuisance wintry precip "event" is trending up for especially Friday afternoon-evening. More details below, but of greatest concern is for a glaze of light icing especially within counties along/north of I-80 (less chance of precip farther south, and temperatures there should be warm enough anyway that "plain" light rain would be the main expectation.

- After we indeed ended up having a round of fairly widespread fog this morning (including localized dense fog with visibility 1/4 mile or less), it's also looking increasingly- likely that we'll see another round of widespread fog Saturday morning...with perhaps even greater potential for dense fog/visibility 1/4 mile or less.

- Despite these various concerns described above, confidence remains too low at this time to justify a formal Dense Fog Advisory or Winter Weather Advisory...but one/possibly both of these "headlines" could be forthcoming within the next 12-18 hours.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Thurs. Jan. 8...but heavily focused on next 36 hours): - CURRENT-RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM: Widespread fog/localized dense fog along with an expansive low stratus deck that blanketed much of the CWA to start the day...has long-since lifted (the fog) and departed off to our east (the low stratus). As a result, this afternoon has featured a mix of partly to mostly cloudy skies...with at least filtered sunshine despite increasing coverage of high level cirrus. What 24 hours ago looked like a potentially tricky high temperature forecast now looks like it will turn out fairly close to expectations...with highs on track to range from low 40s far east, to mid-upper 40s central to low-mid 50s west.

Aloft, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm broad west-northwesterly flow aloft over the Central Plains, while off to the west our attention is drawn to a pair of disturbances gradually approaching from the western U.S...which will eventually consolidate somewhat into a loosely-organized shortwave trough and bring our aforementioned pesky precip chances/wintry mix potential for Friday. At the surface, breezes currently average only 5-10 MPH out of a generally westerly direction (more southwesterly in southern counties, more northwesterly in northern counties).

- TONIGHT (dense fog potential the main concern): In some ways, tonight's overall situation strongly resembles that of last night (the main difference being greater coverage of high level/mid level clouds streaming in from the west). Otherwise, just like last night, another weak-but-evident "backdoor" cold front will sink southward/westward into our CWA as the night goes on, its arrival marked by a switch to light northerly-then-easterly breezes. Also like last night, a deck of low stratus clouds/light fog (currently situated roughly 90 miles north-through-northeast of the edges of our CWA) will be drawn back southward/westward into our area. Of greater concern is the potential for widespread fog...some potentially dense...to gradually break out over much of our CWA in the light-but-moist low-level easterly (upslope) surface flow. Leaning on often-reliable modeled-visibility from HRRR/RAP, it's looking increasingly likely that widespread fog with at least localized dense fog (1/4 mile or less visibility) will indeed develop over much of our area. The only possible mitigating factor might be the increasing high cloud coverage, that sometimes keeps the low levels from efficiently saturating. However, it's tough to ignore the otherwise favorable fog signal. Although will defer to later shifts to potentially pull the trigger on a formal Dense Fog Advisory for Friday AM, right now I'd say the odds are leaning more toward needing one than against. Otherwise, low temps tonight should be similar to very slightly warmer than they were last night/this morning...with most of the CWA aimed 26-30 degrees.

- FRIDAY DAYTIME-EVENING (through midnight..fog and wintry mix concerns): Assuming that widespread fog/at least localized dense fog indeed materializes by/near sunrise, it will likely remain an issue well through the daylight morning hours...and perhaps even into early afternoon in a few spots (although have no mention of fog in official forecast beyond Noon at this time).

Then, our attention turns to what looks to be an increasingly- likely round of light-but-pesky precip...including a wintry mix...that could start before Noon especially in our far northern counties, but would mainly occur during the afternoon- evening as a low-amplitude shortwave trough dives across the heart of our region from northwest-to-southeast. Official measurable precip chances (PoPs) have been modestly-increased versus previous forecast for mainly the northern half of our CWA, but perhaps not nearly enough (later forecasts will need to introduce "likely" percentages if trends from various latest models (HRRR/NAMNest/ECMWF/GFS) are any indication). While we are not talking big amounts of precip by any means (no more than a few hundredths of an inch most places)...the issue is that the thermal profile from the surface and upward into the lowest several thousand feet will be riding a "fine line" between plain rain, freezing rain, and perhaps a sleet/snow mix. What we do have confidence in that our counties along/especially north of I-80 stand the GREATEST chance of seeing a wintry mix, while our counties south of I-80 down into KS are more favored to see just plain rain or remain dry altogether. Later shifts will need to refine precip type with the latest data, but right now our northern CWA is overall-most favored for light freezing rain and a potential ice glaze that COULD cause some nuisance travel impacts. Meanwhile, chances for light snow accumulation currently look to focus just outside our CWA to the north/east (although our northern/eastern zones could also catch a few snowflakes Friday evening as temperatures cool while precip departs). Speaking of which, any precip should end by midnight in our CWA as the upper wave/lift exits to the southeast. Summarizing: Friday's wintry mix potential has ramped up fairly "late in the game" forecast-wise, and we don't have much time to raise public awareness...just in case it does cause some travel issues.

Of course, one very key piece to whether precip falls as rain or freezing rain in our north will be surface/low level temperatures. For now, used a multi-model blend to derive hourly/max temps for Friday...yielding a range in afternoon highs from low 30s far northeast, to mid-upper 30s central...to 40s southwest (and perhaps even some 50s especially extreme southwest counties such as Furnas/Rooks). If anything these have trended downward slightly from previous forecast.

- LATE FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT AM (after midnight): Once any pesky precip departs our eastern CWA Friday evening, the next concern is the possibility for yet another round of fog. Although low-level/surface winds turn light westerly (downslope)...typically unfavorable for fog...this westerly flow might not be strong enough to prevent at least some fog development that would last into the first part of Saturday daytime. At any rate, have not introduced to the forecast yet, as confidence is low in fog likelihood/coverage. Low temps are aimed low-mid 20s across the CWA.

- SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY (the weekend): In short, we return to a warmer and in theory more "straightforward" forecast again, as our flow aloft becomes more quasi-zonal (west-east) in the wake of the departing Friday disturbance. High temps Saturday aimed mainly low-mid 50s most areas, with more in the way of mid-upper 50s Sunday and even some 60s mainly far west/southwest. Saturday will feature fairly light westerly breezes, but Sunday overall-breezier out of the south (gust at least 20-25 MPH).

- MONDAY-THURSDAY: Confidence is high that it remains mainly (if not entirely) dry, as although there will be some upper waves passing by in continued quasi-zonal flow, the latest ECMWF/GFS primarily direct any precip potential at least slightly north/south of our area. Officially, we have some light rain chances for Thursday, but this is more driven by the latest GFS than the ECMWF (which is currently dry). Temperature-wise, seasonably-mild marches on, with highs mainly 50s-low 60s most days, and perhaps cooling slightly toward 40s by Thursday. Overnight lows will also be noticeably mild by January standards, with most nights aimed near-to-only-slightly-below freezing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1126 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceiling will be expected to lower soon (between 7-10z) with fog rolling into the area between 8-12z. Cloud bases east of the area currently rest near 1,500ft, although, these bases are expected to lower to IFR and potentially even LIFR by the early morning hours Friday (down to around 300-500ft before 12z). Visibility from freezing fog, may drop as low as 1/4 to 1/2 mile across portions of the 10z-16z time period. Conditions are expected to deteriorate faster at KGRI compared to KEAR with likely longer dwelling times of IFR/LIFR conditions. Low-lying clouds could keep KGRI underneath MVFR levels all day with bases close to just above MVFR levels for KEAR.

A quick passing system could also impact the area, depositing light accumulations of freezing drizzle/rain or even a few flurries Friday morning. Confidence remains fairly low (15-30%) as most activity will be concentrated northeast of the terminals. The timeframe that this winter system will in the vicinity will be between 18z and 0z.

Winds should remain light through the period (<10kts), with directions swinging around to the southeast later this morning.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ039>041-046>049- 061>064-074>077-084>087. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for NEZ039>041-047>049-063-064. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ006-007-018-019.