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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry and above-normal temperatures are expected through the weekend, with highs in the mid 70s to 80s and lows in the 50s to 60s.

- Though unlikely, there is a low chance of showers/thunderstorms Thursday and Friday morning, mainly for areas along and northeast of a line from roughly Ord to York.

- Breezy southerly winds gusting to 20-30 MPH are expected Friday through Sunday, with peak gusts of 30-40+ MPH possible Saturday.

- Accumulating rain chances return Tuesday, though uncertainty remains in the track and timing of this weather system.

UPDATE

Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

The main story for the rest of this week is the mostly dry and above- normal temperatures expected through the weekend, thanks to an upper- level ridge building over the desert southwest. High temperatures are expected to be in the 80s today, with light northerly surface winds around 5-10 MPH becoming more easterly by sundown. Overnight lows are expected to be in the 50s tonight, increasing into the 60s Saturday and Sunday mornings. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70s to 80s the rest of the week, peaking Friday and Saturday.

The disruption to the outright dry forecast may come Thursday and Friday morning, as a weak upper-level disturbance moves over the upper Midwest. Should any showers/storms develop, they are expected to remain northeast of a line roughly from Ord to York. However, confidence is not high enough to include in the official forecast at this point.

Breezy southerly winds are expected Friday through Sunday. Sustained southerly winds around 15-20 MPH with gusts of 20-30 MPH are possible Friday and Sunday, peaking to 30-40+ MPH Saturday afternoon.

Widespread rain chances return to the forecast Tuesday next week, as an upper-level trough moves into the region. However, uncertainty remains in the track and timing of this system.

WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK

Warm high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with overnight lows only bottoming out in the mid 60s, are expected for Saturday and Sunday. Recent NBM guidance has struggled to resolve these higher temperatures, and thus more widespread 80s may be possible this weekend should temperatures continue to exceed NBM guidance. Despite some subtle vorticity advection late on Saturday, dry profiles are favored to stave off rain entirely this weekend.

Saturday will likely be the windiest day upcoming as the western Dakotas surface low from Friday deepens to sub-1000 mb. Sustained winds of 15 - 25 mph and gusts spiking into the 30 - 40 mph range are possible in response to this low. Winds will calm slightly on Sunday with gusts falling back to 20 - 30 mph as the Dakotas low dies off.

There remains some timing uncertainty given the range we're at, but the next longwave trough and more organized rainfall chances look to arrive around next Tuesday. Latest trends have slowed the progression of this wave, and thus should this trend continue, Wednesday may be a likelier arrival time for the next round of organized rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will become more northerly by 15z and will strengthen some between 15z and 18z. Winds are expected to weaken by 21z and become more northeasterly. Winds may briefly become easterly by 00z before becoming variable. High clouds are expected to increase across the area this afternoon into tonight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.


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