textproduct: Hastings

UPDATE

Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A decaying thunderstorm complex continues to lift northeast across the area. Some breezy winds (gusting 30-40mph) remain possible under this mostly decayed stratiform rain shield. A few scattered storms may move the area throughout the early morning, but severe storms appear unlikely. Any lingering rain is expected to exit the area shortly after sunrise.

Aloft the area is under southwesterly flow as ridging persists over the Great Lakes. Another hot and humid day is expected across the area with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and heat index values in the 90s to around 100 degrees. Southerly winds will be breezy across central and southeastern portions of the area, gusting 20-30mph. Focus then turns to the potential for thunderstorms during the evening-overnight hours. While models differ on the coverage of storms, at least isolated storm development is possible this evening along a front that stretches across central portions of the area. 2500+ J/Kg of CAPE is expected across the forecast area. Shear along and north of the front will be supportive of stong-severe storms when combined with CAPE. Another area to watch for storms will be across western Kansas where a cluster of strong-severe storms is likely to develop. This cluster of storms would move into southwestern portions of the area during the late evening- overnight hours. It's plausible this cluster acts similarly to Tuesday night/current storms where they quickly lose strength on approaching the forecast area due to increasing inhibition and weaker shear. Strong-severe storms could produce 60mph wind gusts and half dollar sized hail. Scattered storms continue into the overnight hours, with the coverage and intensity decreasing over time.

Hot and humid weather continues on Thursday as highs once again climb into the 90s with heat index values topping out around 100 degrees. Isolated storms that develop over western NE/KS move into western portions of the area Thursday evening. These storms could be strong-severe through intensity may wane as they move east and inhibition increases around sunset. Another area to watch for severe weather potential will be in South Dakota as storms could form into an MCS that may clip northern portions of the area. Otherwise the forecast remains on track as southwesterly flow becomes more zonal on Friday-Saturday. Those with plans on the 4th of July should keep a close eye on the forecast as a passing disturbance brings a chance for storms during the late afternon-overnight hours. Machine learning guidance highlights the potential for these storms to be strong-severe though details are uncertain at this time and will become clearer as we get closer.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Today through tonight...

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country and extends over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. An upper ridge extends from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes. South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are in between these two features. Temperatures today will be a little cooler than yesterday, especially across northern portions of the area with a surface high present. Highs are expected to range from mid/upper 80s to the upper 90s. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the low/mid 60s to the mid 70s.

There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) to enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk of severe storms today into tonight. The highest risk (enhanced) will be across portions of north central Kansas. CAPE values will mostly range from 2,500 to 4,000+ J/kg. 0 to 6 km wind shear values will get up to around 50 knots across mainly western and northern portions of the area. Mid-level lapse rates will generally range from 7 to near 8 degrees C/km. A shortwave is expected to move over portions of the area this evening into tonight. These conditions will contribute to the severe weather threat this evening into tonight. The severe weather could start as early as around 6 PM with an isolated supercell or two in north central Kansas or in south central Nebraska west of Kearney. The more widespread/main threat of severe weather is expected around 8 or 9 PM when a line/cluster of storms moves northeastward from western Kansas. There is some uncertainty as to where these storms will go when they move into the forecast area. While there is more confidence for the storms to impact north central Kansas and areas of south central Nebraska generally along and south of Highway 6, some models are indicating storms moving from Furnas County northeastward to Greeley County (similar to where storms moved last yesterday evening/last night). Hail up to around golf ball size and wind gusts up to around 70+ MPH will be the main threats. The severe threat is expected to end around 2 AM although additional (possibly strong) storms may develop after that time.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Temperatures on Wednesday will be fairly similar to those today. There is a marginal risk of severe storms across the majority of the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night with a small portion of north central Kansas in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5). CAPE values will be very high (over 4,000 J/kg according to the NAM12) but 0 to 6 km wind shear will be a little weaker than today (up to 40 to 45 knots in some areas). Mid-level lapse rates will generally be similar to those today. A shortwave trough is expected to move over/near the area Wednesday evening and produce storms, some of which may be strong to severe. Hail up to around the size of quarters and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH will be the main threats. The main timing for severe storms will be around 7 PM to midnight.

Thursday through Monday...

Similar high temperatures will continue for Thursday. There is a marginal to slight severe storm threat for Thursday for south central and central Nebraska. There is some uncertainty if storms will even impact the area, but storms that do develop/move into the area will have the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Some storms may impact (up to around a 30% chance) northern portions of the forecast area (Highway 6 and northward) Friday evening. Severe potential is unknown at this time. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be in the lower to upper 90s.

It still appears that some, or most, of the forecast area could experience showers and thunderstorms Saturday (4th of July) evening. Right now for the evening and early overnight hours, there is a 30% to 55% chance of showers and storms areawide. The severe potential is unclear at this point but there is at least a low threat (20% to 30%) of severe storms. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 80s to upper 90s. High temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to mainly be in the 80s and low 90s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Some few to scattered MVFR ceilings are expected to leave the area by around 20z. Thunderstorms may impact both KGRI and KEAR from around 00z to 04z. There may also be brief, marginal wind shear from 05z to 06z but lacked confidence to include at this time. Winds will generally range from southeast to southwest.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.