textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild/warm (though probably not quite as warm as the record-setting highs today) temperatures and dry conditions continue through mid week.

- Pattern turns colder and potentially more wintry late this week into next weekend.

- Forecast confidence is low, but some ensemble guidance gives at least a 40-50% chance for impactful snow and wind to at least portions of the forecast area mainly on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

As hinted at yesterday, temperatures have "overachieved" forecast guidance once again this afternoon. Mixing has been somewhat weak, but efficient, given SWrly low level flow, and skies have been mostly sunny with just some recent increase in high, thin clouds. Nearly perfect day for early January (unless you love winter), and it even landed on a weekend!

Large scale pattern remains largely unchanged through midweek, featuring SWrly to zonal mid-upper flow and mostly Srly to Wrly low level flow - favorable for downsloping warmth atop relatively warm/dry ground locally and upstream. There will be a few weak disturbances that traverse the zonal flow, but these will be mostly weak, Pacific-based, and lacking low level moisture. One of these waves will move through Mon eve/night, and another even weaker one Tue PM. Neither of these are expected to bring anything more than passing cloud cover. Temperatures will thus remain well above normal for early January, with daily highs in the 50s to lower 60s...and lows only a few degrees either side of freezing. One thing to note, even though Monday will be several degrees cooler (perhaps has much as 5-10 deg), it will still be fairly pleasant with some filtered sunshine and very light winds at only 5-10 MPH.

Changes begin to take shape on Thursday as a deeper upper trough approaches from the W, and a stronger cold front moves through the region. Thursday will likely be a transition day, and could see fairly large differences in sensible weather from NW to SE across the area - depending on timing and placement of aforementioned cold front. SE zones could remain mild(ish) and run chance for showers, whereas far N/NW zones may struggle to get out of the 40s amidst low clouds and chilly NE wind.

Friday looks to be the period with the greatest potential for impactful weather. As mentioned yesterday, most of the major ensemble guidance is in good agreement of a general downward trend in temperatures Friday into the weekend, and at least SOME chance for wintry precipitation within this transition period. However, there remains some fairly significant differences in magnitude and placement of the wintry precipitation. For instance, latest EPS gives majority of the forecast area at least a 40-50% chance for accumulating snow - which would most likely be accompanied by some decently gusty winds. On the other hand, the GEFS gives only 10-20% chances for accumulating snow, and not as much wind. These differences appear to stem from differing ideas on how quickly a system intensifies over the Plains on Friday, with the EC faster/further W compared to GFS. Still plenty of time to work out specifics and for model data to change, just know that Friday has the POTENTIAL to feature some of the more impactful wintry weather we've had thus far this season (yes, it's a low bar). With the stronger EC also comes stronger winds, with several of the EPS members giving 6hr peak gusts around 40-50 MPH on Friday. So again, something to watch.

Temperatures may really struggle behind the system next weekend, but exactly how cold will depend on snow cover from Friday's system. Could be situation where highs remain below freezing and lows dip into at least the teens.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are favored through the period. The threat for fog Monday morning continues to diminish...only a 10-15% chance.

BKN-OVC high clouds arrive on Monday.

Winds remain light and variable through most of the period, but will trend more westerly Monday afternoon into the overnight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.