textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Into this evening: The combination of strong south winds (gusts 35-45 MPH), along with relative humidity (RH) as low as 25-35 percent, will continue to drive near-critical to critical fire weather conditions, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM for Nebraska counties mainly along and northwest of a Beaver City-Kearney-Fullerton line, where RH is overall-lowest. - This evening (prior to midnight): there is a small chance that a thunderstorm or two could try brushing into the extreme western fringes of our forecast area...mainly Dawson/Gosper/Furnas counties...although it is more likely that any storms remain entirely west of this area.

- Very late overnight-early Thurs AM: there is a slightly better chance that isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms could develop into more of our area, but mainly favoring Nebraska counties along and north of Interstate 80. This activity seems unlikely to be severe.

- Thursday fire weather: from mid-morning through early evening, near- critical to critical fire weather conditions will develop across much of our area. The highest potential for critical fire weather conditions will reside within counties along and west of a line from Greeley to Grand Island Nebraska, to Phillipsburg Kansas...where a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 10 AM until 8 PM.

- Thursday thunderstorm potential: Although it now appears that the vast majority of any severe thunderstorm threat during the afternoon and evening should focus slightly east and southeast of our forecast area altogether, our far eastern and southeastern counties remain under at least a Marginal Risk for severe storms at this time, just in case storms happen to develop farther west over our area (chances have REALLY decreased versus 24 hours ago).

- Friday night-Sunday night: various/intermittent chances for much-needed rain and thunderstorms. Storms should mostly be sub-severe, but cannot rule out limited severe potential mainly Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 439 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday (10 AM-8 PM) for roughly the northwest half of our CWA. This MIGHT actually be our last critical fire weather concern for several days, which would be welcomed! Please refer to separate Fire Weather section below for all further discussion on this topic.

- Decreasing severe thunderstorm threat for Thursday afternoon- evening: What a change 24 hours has made! Yesterday, various forecast models slowed down the passage of Thursday's cold front/dryline...seemingly bringing at least the eastern one- third to perhaps one-half of our CWA "under the gun" for a severe storm threat during the afternoon-evening. However, overnight model runs (and continuing into today) have abruptly sped up this front again...in turn firing up any severe storms at least SLIGHTLY east-southeast of our CWA altogether. Out of an abundance of caution, SPC has for now maintained an official Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for a few of our far east- southeast counties on their latest Day 2 outlook, but they did shift the western edges of their Marginal Risk (level 1) to the east of Hwy 281. IN SUMMARY: barring a surprising "last minute" shift back west (unlikely but cannot totally rule it out just yet), the threat for severe storms in our CWA on Thursday appears to have diminished quite a bit versus 24 hours ago.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Wed. April 29): -- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM: Overall, today has turned out very much as expected: Windy (southerly gusts 30-40 MPH with spotty 45 MPH) and warm, with highs on track to top out mainly 80-86 degrees. It's also remained rain/storm-free.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm the onset of a more active weather pattern these next several days, as we are under increasing southwesterly flow aloft...downstream from a potent shortwave trough/closed low currently churning through the Northern Rockies. Down at the surface, the pressure gradient has really tightened up across our Central Plains region today, driven by a strong (roughly 990 millibar) low pressure center over eastern MT, which has in turn kicked up our stout southerly winds.

- THIS EVENING (mainly pre-midnight): The vast majority of our CWA will surely remain dry and continued windy/breezy out of the south (gusts at least 25-35 MPH even after dark), as a surface trough/weak cold front slowly approaches our area from the west-northwest. Technically, the EXTREME western fringes of our CWA (mainly western Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) remain under a Marginal Risk for a rogue severe storm via the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook, and we are carrying some low-end chances/PoPs to cover this possibility. However, high-res models (HRRR/NAMNest) strongly suggest that the vast majority of this activity should remain at least 25-50 miles west of our CWA altogether...with storms tracking more north than east. That being said, we will have to keep an eye on our western fringes...just in case a non-zero thunderstorm threat does materialize.

- LATE OVERNIGHT (post midnight): As the early morning hours go by, the surface cold front will gradually invade our CWA from west-to-east...reaching roughly halfway through by sunrise. Ahead of this boundary, southerly winds will remain breezy but gradually diminish in speed, while behind the boundary breezes will switch to out of the northwest.

As for rain/thunderstorm chances, odds still favor MOST areas staying dry. That being said, some fairly weak elevated instability (rooted mainly above 800 millibars) could spark some isolated/scattered showers and possibly some weak thunderstorms. These could occur almost anywhere in our CWA, but appear to MOSTLY favor counties along/north of I-80. That being said, chances are currently no higher than 20-40%.

As for low temps, they will hold up well into the upper 50s-low 60s most places (aided in part by a large mass of low clouds expected to overspread most of our CWA), with some cooler low- mid 50s sneaking into only our far west-northwest counties around/just after sunrise as drier air moves in there first.

- THURSDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING: As already highlighted above, the faster passage of the frontal boundary/dryline represent a fairly big change versus expectations from 24 hours ago.

The morning starts with lingering low-level clouds mainly over the eastern 1/3 of our CWA, while mid-high level clouds linger central/west. There MIGHT be a few lingering showers/weak storms over our eastern counties in the morning-early afternoon as well, but these appear to be far from "soaking rains". Out of caution as much as anything (and in line with SPC Day 2 Outlook), we linger some small thunderstorm chances into our far east-southeast counties during the late afternoon-early evening, but latest HRRR/NAMNest focus most all severe potential now 25-50 miles east-southeast of our CWA altogether.

In other departments: The post-frontal west-northwesterly breezes will take over our entire area, generally sustained 10-20 MPH/gusting 15-30 MPH (highest west/weakest east). High temps were changed very little, ranging mid-upper 70s north/west to low 80s south/southeast.

- THURSDAY LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Any thunderstorm chances that might have existed quickly wane, with skies becoming mostly clear in the wake of the passing upper disturbance. Northerly breezes will average at least 5-10 MPH, which will keep temps from "tanking" too far, but still lows will be quite a bit cooler than tonight...aimed from mid- upper 30s northwest to low-mid 40s southeast (very low chance for a little frost far northwest around Ord?...not currently in official forecast).

- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: The vast majority of the day-early evening looks dry as breezes shift from northerly to more easterly. High temps aimed 60s north to low-70s south. However, already by early evening and especially overnight, some low-end rain/weak thunderstorm chances arrive from the west...mainly targeting our northern counties per latest model data.

- SATURDAY-SUNDAY: While not a non-stop rain situation by ANY means, this will be an overall-active few days as another large-scale shortwave trough gradually approaches/invades our region from the west- southwest. Although rain chances/PoPs are at least no higher than 50% for Saturday, they still might be overdone. However, more widespread and higher-confidence chances arrive Sunday- Sunday night with the main wave...during which time much of our area COULD pick up at least 0.50-1.00" of rain. Although far too early to pinpoint details, at least our southern counties MAY need monitored for a strong to severe storm threat mainly Sunday...although this would appear to mainly be an elevated storm threat (meaning mainly hail). High temps both days aimed mainly 60s, with lows mainly upper 30s-40s.

- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Various, intermittent chances for rain shower and mainly weak thunderstorms continue, as our flow aloft remains quasi-zonal (west-east) before turning more southwesterly mid-week. Temperatures continue to lean at least slightly toward the cooler side (especially compared to lately), with highs aimed mainly upper 50s-upper 60s...and lows mainly mid 30s-mid 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility along with precipitation-free conditions the majority of the time. However, there is at least a 6-7 hour period overnight into early Thursday morning that will likely feature MVFR stratus, along with PERHAPS a small chance for a passing shower/thunderstorm. Otherwise, especially during these first 12 hours, moderately- strong winds take center stage, with southerly gusts commonly 30-35KT especially through 05-06Z. Then, a shift to breezy (but lighter) northwest winds takes place late in the period Thursday morning (gusts to around 20KT).

- Ceiling/precipitation details: Very high confidence in continued VFR (only some high cirrus) through at least 04-05Z. Thereafter, equally high confidence that an MVFR ceiling arrives (roughly 2K ft. AGL) and sticks around through around 11Z KEAR/12Z KGRI, before it gets scoured out/lifts to VFR behind a passing cold front. Of lower confidence (but possible) is the chance for a few passing showers/non-severe thunderstorms. Should this occur, it would be most favored during the 08-12Z time frame, and have introduced PROB30 groups to cover this.

- Wind details: Consistent, moderately-strong southerly winds will prevail throughout the rest of the afternoon-evening (sustained speeds commonly around 25KT/gusts 30-35KT). Very late tonight into early Thursday morning, winds will turn westerly and then northwesterly, with gusts to around 20KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 439 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING: Despite dewpoints/relative humidity (RH) technically running higher than our "usual" critical criteria (mainly dropping no lower than 25-35 percent), this RH is deemed "low enough"...given the presence of strong south winds gusting as high as 35-45 MPH along with long-standing dryness...to justify the continuation of a Red Flag Warning through 8 PM for roughly the northwestern 1/3rd of our forecast area (CWA). Although moderately-strong south winds will continue beyond 8 PM, RH will steadily recover upward later this evening...climbing back to 60+% by 10-11 PM.

- THURSDAY: One final round of critical fire weather concerns (perhaps our last for several days?) arrives Thursday, as although it will not be as windy as today (northwest winds gusting up to around 25-30 MPH), RH will be considerably lower...bottoming out 10-15% within all but our far eastern-southeastern CWA. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for most of our Nebraska counties along/west of Highway 281...along with Phillips County KS...valid 10 AM-8 PM. Please note this is an earlier-than-usual "start time" due to the very dry air causing RH to fall quickly post-sunrise. The main limiting factor as to why this Warning does not extend farther east-southeast at this time, is that winds are currently expected to consistently fall short of gusting 25+ MPH, but this will need closely monitored in later forecasts in case eastward expansion becomes more warranted.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ039- 040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046-047-060-061-072-073-082. KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ005.