textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered, off and on showers possible throughout the day, but a true washout is not expected.

- A deep trough/low move into the area Sunday night through Tuesday bringing widespread chances for showers/storms to the area.

- Gusty-strong winds likely behind the departing low on Tuesday with northerly winds gusting 35-45+mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 414 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES:

As evidenced by the fairly lengthly list of KEY MESSAGES above, our weather pattern remains quite active. On a positive note, although bringing more beneficial rain (at least longer term beneficial) with most of our forecast area (CWA) very generally expected to receive at least 1-2" of rain between tonight and Tuesday, in the shorter-term this pattern is obviously wreaking havoc for those trying to wrap up/continue harvest. For those folks, HOPEFULLY the latter half of next week continues to maintain its current MOSTLY dry look.

As for key forecast uncertainties... - Of note in the very short term: Will at least patchy dense fog impact our northern counties (mainly north of I-80) overnight?

- Looking into early next week: certainly the "highlight" of the entire 7-day forecast right now is to what degree we are impacted by the large-scale/strong/deep low pressure system mainly Sunday night-Tuesday. While widespread rain and moderately-strong winds (both ahead of and behind it) are looking increasingly likely, what is still a SOMEWHAT- CONCERNING UNKNOWN is whether (or not) we see a round of strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms along the advancing cold front/surface low pressure system Monday afternoon-early evening? At this time, various models (ECMWF/GFS/NAM) suggest that both instability and perhaps to some degree deep-layer shear could be on the lower-end of the spectrum for any kind of "higher end" severe storm threat, but these trends bear close watching. At least for now, SPC has kept it's 15 percent "slight risk equivalent" area slightly south-southeast of our CWA on the latest Day 4 (Monday) severe storm outlook, but tools such as CSU machine learning severe probs currently paint at least low chances within primarily the eastern half of our CWA. Obviously these details will surely come into better focus over the weekend and Monday nears.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Fri. Nov. 6): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM: Overall no big surprises today. In short, the morning saw a smattering of weak thunderstorms mainly in our far east-central counties, along with some dense fog in southwesterly counties. In the wake of these things, much of the late-morning through mid-afternoon was simply continued cloudy under fairly widespread low stratus. However, especially within the last hour another round of very spotty showers/perhaps a few rumbles of thunder have started affecting mainly part of our KS zones, as water vapor satellite/short-term model data confirm that the leading edge of lift is arriving from the next/incoming upper wave lifting our way out of the Southern High Plains/western KS area. At the surface, a weak warm front is evident lifting very slowly north through our KS zones, with winds to its south trying to turn more southerly with time, while most of our CWA is reporting light (5-10 MPH) southeast winds north of the boundary. High temps on track to top out 60s most areas, but ranging from upper 50s far north (Ord area) to low 70s far southeast (Thayer/Mitchell/Jewell counties).

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Sticking to the basics: High confidence in continued widespread stratus clouds with some patchy drizzle almost anywhere, with at least isolated-scattered showers/weak thunderstorms also lifting north into more of our area and possible almost anywhere. Certainly the MAIN CONCERN overnight is whether fog becomes dense enough to warrant a possible Advisory...which would seem most favored to occur within our Nebraska counties along/especially north of I-80. Given only medium confidence in truly widespread/truly dense fog development, we've opted to hold off for now on any formal Advisory, but fog is obviously highlighted as a possible concern here and in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). Breezes overnight turn more southerly as the warm front lifts north.

- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: These 24 hours are simply best described as "a varied mix of dry weather interspersed with passing showers". It's just impossible to truly guarantee any particular area to remain dry more than a few hours at a time, given persistent weak lift from the upper wave lifting east-northeast through our region. Put another way, trick-or-treaters should be ready for some passing (mainly light) rain showers, just in case. Compared to today, south- southeast winds will be a little breezier, with sustained speeds commonly 10-15 MPH and gusts up to around 20 MPH. High temps were largely unchanged with most areas a few degrees either side of 60 degrees, while lows Saturday night were nudged up slightly to mainly low-mid 50s given widespread clouds.

- SUNDAY DAYTIME: Although we cannot totally rule out some very spotty showers or patchy drizzle, for the most part this should be a brief "dry break" in between systems. With continued plentiful clouds, temps will only climb very slightly at best, with most areas aimed low-mid 60s.

- SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: See above for various references to this ~ 60 hour time frame, as a large-scale/strong upper level trough and associated surface low crosses the Central Plains. Possible hazards include strong (maybe severe?) thunderstorms and moderately-strong winds. Temperature-wise, highs mainly 60s-70s Monday, then only 50s Tuesday behind the cold front.

- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: While especially those trying to finish/continue harvest really need to "cheer" for this to remain a dry/mostly dry stretch (and confidence is high that it WILL BE mostly dry), there are some hints that a weak wave or two could bring pesky shower chances from time to time. High temps mainly 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings will decrease to MVFR or IFR across the area within the next couple of hours. Ceilings will likely be IFR or maybe even LIFR by around 06z and will continue until around 16z or 17z with a slight improvement but still sub VFR. A reduction in visibility will likely occur (possibly this afternoon but more likely tonight into Sunday morning) but there is uncertainty as to how low the visibility will get. Rain showers are expected (not likely heavy) but it is not expected to rain continually and there may be hours in between rain showers. The rain showers may turn to drizzle tonight into Sunday morning. Winds will mostly be out of the southeast.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.