textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for north central Kansas until 4 AM this morning.

- Fog has developed and may continue into the early morning hours. Dense fog is not currently expected.

- Near to below freezing temperatures may be present tonight/Tuesday morning with higher confidence (around 70%) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 156 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are moving across portions of south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. North central Kansas is currently in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4 AM. Strong to severe storms are currently moving across portions of central and north central Kansas. Fog has developed across most of the forecast area. There is some uncertainty as to how long it will stay around and how dense it will get. Latest observations show that visibilities are improving somewhat but visibilities could go down again later in the night. Low temperatures overnight are expected to range from the upper 30s to mid 50s. Showers and storms may linger into the morning hours but are generally expected to be out of the area by mid afternoon. Winds this afternoon will be out of the northwest with gusts up to 20 to 30+ MPH. High temperatures today are expected to range from the low 50s to mid 60s. Rain showers may move across portions of the area tonight (15% to 50% chance). Winds tonight will be out of the north with low temperatures in the 30s. Temperatures along and northwest of a line from Lexington to Ord may drop to around 33 to 31 degrees. This cooling may be hindered by cloud cover and precipitation. There is higher confidence (around 70%) of near to below freezing temperatures Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with most locations along and west of Highway 281 experiencing near to below freezing temperatures. The remaining areas will be at risk for frost development.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Bottom line regarding the severe threat today and tonight is that is decreasing quite a bit. Can't say with certainty that there won't still be some strong/severe storms over mainly portions of northern Kansas tonight, but even this is looking increasingly unlikely owing to lack of deep instability.

Expect a nice lull rest of this afternoon and into the evening thanks to subsidence behind the earlier wave. It will remain very dreary and chilly though with no impetus for low level mixing to increase and help scatter out the widespread stratus. Timing for the next round looks to be around and after midnight and into early Monday AM. Forcing and shear/kinematics will be there for severe storms, but latest HRRR runs keep any MUCAPE >1000 J/kg south of the NE/KS state line...and the nose of the more substantial (>2000 J/kg) MUCAPE closer to I-70. My gut tells me areas from around Stockton to Hebron S and E still have a non- zero chance for some severe storms with this round...but probably only a hail threat. Forecast soundings from the Beloit area show a very stable lowest 4K ft, with most/all of the CAPE increase noted in the 4-7K ft layer. This would make tornadogenesis and even damaging winds VERY difficult to achieve. A strengthening LLJ will help feed the uptick in convective coverage/strength late tonight, and appears it will veer E of the area by sunrise (probably even by 09Z). Off and on scattered elevated convection could persist for central and eastern areas through the morning as the primary core of the upper trough swings through.

Obviously will continue to monitor observations and trends...but in my experience, such widespread coverage of such cold/stable conditions locally and in the immediate upstream airmass is not conducive to significant severe weather. Some hail threat from elevated storms persists until the entire trough passes through, but finding it increasingly difficult to message any sort of damaging wind and tornado threat given the latest trends.

May need to add some add some sprinkles to the forecast for tomorrow afternoon/early evening for northern areas. Steep low level lapse rates and strong cold air advection could support some decent cu/stratocu.

Models continue to indicate a band of light precipitation (probably mostly rain, can't rule out some wet snow) moving in from the W Monday night, and continuing into the day on Tuesday. The associated cloud cover and weak low level mixing will keep highs cool in the 50s. This could set the stage for relatively widespread frost and freeze conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as clouds clear out and winds remain light. Sub-freezing temperatures are currently most likely for the Tri-Cities, north and west. However, even Beloit/Hebron could fall into the mid 30s and support frost formation.

Additional off and on rain chances continue into Wednesday and Thursday, but haven't spent a lot of time looking into the specifics. Even without the showers, it looks to remain cool for the entire work week with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the upper 20s/30s. At least patchy frost could develop each night through Saturday morning, but this will depend on cloud/wind details that are impossible to pin down this far out. Just keep that in mind in case you have planted your gardens and pots already. Hopefully, we can get back to more seasonable 70s next weekend. Fingers crossed...next weekend should also be dry and just overall more pleasant than this weekend has been.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm will impact the area off and on during the overnight hours into the morning hours. Ceilings will continue to decrease to at least IFR for most of the overnight into the morning hours. A gradual improvement in ceilings is expected beginning around 15z and continuing into the afternoon hours. VFR conditions may return by mid afternoon but ceilings are expected to decrease again by 04z Tuesday. There is some uncertainty with visibilities during the overnight and early morning hours. Winds will generally be variable until around 12z when winds will become northwesterly with an increase in winds during the afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.