textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog appears to be possible to return again tonight with similar conditions set to return. Model guidance seams to be overall less confident with the potential for widespread dense fog as with the previous night.

- Widespread precipitation chances are favored to bring around 2-4" of precip to the area between Tuesday and Thursday. There is still a tone of uncertainty in exact forecast amounts given an expected sharp precipitation gradient across the area (outer fringes of the system). After Thursday, the forecast into the weekend is dry.

- Highs for a majority of the week will reside in the 60s and 70s with overnight lows possibly in the mid 40s to low 50s Thursday and Friday nights.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Tonight and Monday...

Gentle ridging aloft today will keep conditions fairly quiet tonight and for the first half of the day Monday. Given the partly cloudy skies, highs (outside of a few north central Kansas locations) have struggled to break out of the 70s. Similar to the previous night, low temperatures overnight should return back to the upper 50s to low 60s. Though model prognostics tend to be less excited about the fog potential tonight (only 50% of the HREF members as opposed to 80% the previous night), it is hard to overlook the similar returning conditions (light easterly winds and low 60s dewpoints). The main uncertainty regarding the fog potential for tonight would be from the presence of a thick layer of low-level stratus. This deck of clouds could act like a blanket, insulating temperatures by a few degrees (possibly keeping lows from reaching their dewpoints). If this plays out, the fog potential could be limited or less intense than from this past morning. The RRFS guidance also hints that the pockets of dense fog may overall be more isolated than widespread.

Beyond the potential for fog Monday morning, cloudy skies retaining across much of the day will once again keep temperatures from escaping out of the 70s for Monday, despite the presence of steady southeasterly warm air advecting winds. Aloft, a shortwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies overnight Monday could bring the area its next precipitation chances. The bigger forecast shift over the last 24-hours has been to delay the onset of precipitation chances from overnight Monday to Tuesday. This lag in the guidance comes as higher resolution model guidance (HREF members) have been slower to move in precipitation compared to the global models (GFS/ECMWF). Now that this event is within range of the higher-res short-term guidance, a greater contribution to or weight of the forecast is shifting from the GFS/ECMWF timing more towards the HREF/RRFS guidance. This trend, though slower to present itself, is also starting to be observed with the National Blend of Models (NBM) as well.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The main story for the middle of the week will be the potential for extended periods of steady and occasionally heavy rainfall, especially across the Tuesday-Thursday time period. Hurricane Polo in the Pacific is soon expected to be steered northeast and into the Southern Plains by an approaching southwest U.S. trough. The outer plume of moisture by this hurricane is likely to stretch north and into the local area by Wednesday. This increase in moisture content across the area will enhance precipitation efficiency across the middle to end of the week (PWAT values as high as 1.75-2"...over 2 times greater than the average end of september values around 0.75").

The earliest arrival for precipitation this week now looks to come Tuesday. Between Tuesday and Thursday, multiple rounds of widespread rain showers will be expected to lift north and up across all of central Kansas/Nebraska. Though steady precipitation chances generally hold across all three days, the highest confidence window and peak rainfall amounts will look to come across the Wednesday and Wednesday night period when the surface low is closest to the area (crossing through southern Kansas). This low will continue to push east and away across the day Thursday, leaving the most uncertainty within the first arrival window of showers on Tuesday and the last lingering bands of precipitation on Thursday.

The latest NBM QPF guidance project between 2-4" of precipitation to fall across the area over this three day period with the locally heavier amounts generally concentrated towards the south and east (locations closer to the system center). It is important to know that some guidance has suggested a slightly further northward track of this system that could shift our forecast amounts northward. If this northward trend continues, areas north of I-80 could overachieve current expectations with the far south and southeast portions of the area underachieving expectations.

For far northern portions of the area (locations north of I-80), through the mean/most likely value is around 2-2.5" of precipitation, a large gap separates the high end (75th percentile) and the low end (25th percentile) model guidance (spread of the NBM ensemble). In fact the low end values (25% percentile where 75% of the guidance exceeds) is around 1.25-1.75" with the upper limit (75th percentile where only 25% of the guidance exceeds) is between 2-4". This high range comes from the fact where central Nebraska is likely to find itself within the outer bounds of the system. Precipitation amounts for these locations are the most susceptible to the system track (sharp precipitation gradient). A north or south shift of the system track can vastly effect precipitation amounts across the "fringes" compared to locations across central Kansas that lie closer to the system center track. In comparison, the portions of the forecast area with the higher end forecast precipitation amounts (3-4" for north central Kansas and Nebraska areas southeast of the Tri-Cities), have the lower end guidance (25th percentile) around 2-2.75" with the upper end guidance (75th percentile) around 3.5-4". Within the last 24-hours, the confidence in the higher-end amounts have seemed to diminish some. If this trend continues, it is possible for forecast amounts to also decrease in the upper bounds.

Given the anomalously high moisture concentration with the large window of steady rain showers, the WPC has included the entire area underneath a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (15-40% chance of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point) for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Besides the precipitation potential this week, temperatures look to be on track to steadily decrease a few degrees. Given the continuation of mostly cloudy skies across much of the week (primarily through Thursday) and the passage of a cold front Tuesday night, temperatures are forecast to peak between the upper 50s and 70s each day this week. Highs could reach their coolest point for the week around Friday (upper 50s to mid 60s). Overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s appear possible to achieve both Thursday and Friday nights.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR ceilings are expected to return this evening by 03z and IFR ceilings by 07z. LIFR ceilings may develop by 12z. A gradual improvement in ceilings is expected around 15z or shortly after. There is some uncertainty whether ceilings will improve to VFR after 18z. If they do reach VFR, it is expected to be brief with lower ceilings expected by 00z Tuesday. Some fog is expected overnight but there is uncertainty as to how dense the fog will get. Winds will generally range from the east to southeast between 5 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots possible in the afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.