textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms (some possibly strong) will continue through the rest of the overnight into the daylight hours.

- There is a threat of strong to marginally severe storms late this evening into tonight.

- Heat index values up to around 100 to 104 degrees expected this afternoon across portions of north central Kansas and near the Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Strong to severe storms may develop Saturday evening into Saturday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Rain and thunderstorms are currently moving across the area. A bowing line of storms produced a few wind gusts around 60 MPH across portions of south central Nebraska. This line is exiting the area and has weakened. Thunderstorms are continuing to develop as an MCV moves across the area. Storms are not expected to be severe for the remainder of the overnight period but some strong storms with gusty winds up to around 50 MPH and small hail may develop. Lingering showers (and perhaps an isolated storm or two) may continue across portions of the area through this morning. Most, if not all, of the area should be dry by this afternoon. Additional storm development is expected late this evening into tonight. Some of these storms may become strong to marginally severe. Wind gusts up to around 60 MPH and hail up to around the size of quarters are the main threats.

High temperatures today are expected to range from the upper 70s (around Ord, NE) to the mid 90s (across portions of north central KS). An abundance of moisture in the air (dewpoints mostly in the 70s during the afternoon) may result in heat index values across portions of north central Kansas and around the Nebraska/Kansas border of around 100 to 104 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s and 70s. Various storm chances continue across at least a portion of the area through Thursday night. Strong to marginally severe storms may impact portions of the area Saturday evening into Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 434 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/UNCERTAINTIES: - No truly major changes to speak of versus previous issuance last night/early this morning. That being said, as was expected here 24 hours ago...high temps for especially Sunday- Tuesday have trended a bit warmer (and possibly not enough), as any highs only in the 70s would appear most favored possibly Sunday and mainly in our north.

- The most pressing/obvious very-short-term issue is assessing severe storm potential late this afternoon/especially evening...with our MAIN concern for a few severe storms (mainly with a damaging wind threat) focused 9PM-1AM and mainly in the southwestern quadrant of our CWA (counties mainly along/west of Hwy 281 and along/west of Hwy 6.

- Big picture overview of the upper air pattern through the next week: Our RELATIVELY consistent pattern over the next week (fairly consistent warm-but-not-overly hot temperatures and intermittent rain/thunderstorm chances) is very typical for this time of year when we reside along the periphery/interface between a large-scale upper level high/ridge centered to our south...and the primary upper jet stream centered to our north. Really the only thing that changes is the spacial orientation of the ridge...as these next few days we remain under mainly southwesterly flow aloft (upper high centered over the Mid-South/southeastern states)...which then transitions to more west-northwesterly flow especially Sunday- Wednesday as the upper ridge retrogrades back west into the Southern Plains (TX/OK) and eventually southwest (NM/AZ).

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Thurs. Aug. 20): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE: Briefly backing up to last night/early this morning, forecasts from 24 hours ago were fairly "spot on" that a potentially- severe convective complex would march across our northern counties. However, we did not necessarily anticipate a particularly-damaging (thankfully narrow) swath of at least 70-80+ MPH winds centered roughly along a line from Arcadia- North Loup-Greeley that caused considerable tree/power line and some structural damage.

In the wake of last night's long-departed storm complex (actually still ongoing over southern Indiana), today has thus far been dry/uneventful, under variable sky cover ranging from mainly mostly cloudy north...to partly cloudy central...to mostly sunny south. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm that we reside under the aforementioned west-southwesterly flow aloft, with the next low-amplitude shortwave trough/disturbance of interest gradually headed our way out of eastern CO.

At the surface, it's another day with a fairly big temperature gradient across the CWA, thanks to that same sharp, quasi- stationary front draped in west-east fashion across northern KS. To the north of this boundary, most of our CWA is realizing highs between the low 80s-low 90s, in the presence of northeasterly/easterly breezes generally 10-15 MPH. However, along and especially south of the boundary, temps in the mid- upper 90s (and even limited 100+ extreme south) are present in our KS counties. This same southern part of our CWA is also the only area realizing 100+ heat index through early this evening...with fairly widespread values of at least 100-105 and possibly even localized up to ~ 110 (mainly Mitchell County). As a result, a Heat Advisory continues in our KS counties until 9 PM.

- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT: As of this writing, a few "blips" of high-based convection are just starting to develop about 30 miles south of our extreme southeastern CWA (Lincoln County KS area)...in an area of very steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing south of the sharp surface front. Leaning on higher-res models such as HRRR, at some point mainly 5-8 PM could at least brush up into especially Mitchell County in our extreme southeast...possibly posing a threat for mainly severe wind gusts.

However, of much higher confidence and concern is that convection just getting underway over southwestern/south central KS will accelerate northward into mainly the southwestern quadrant of our CWA mainly 9PM-1AM, posing a risk for at least localized severe gusts to ~ 65 MPH, and perhaps hail up to around quarter size (hail being the lesser threat). Although we are NOT expecting a repeat of last night's very intense/damaging winds, these storms will have plentiful instability (at least 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE, but a limiting factor of only modest deep- layer shear mainly no more than 30-35KT. However, higher-res models clearly depict at least localized damaging wind potential...especially if a robust outflow surge is able to develop along the leading edge of this activity. While the main severe storm threat should largely wane by 12-1 AM, our entire CWA could see at least isolated/scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the night as the aforementioned mid level shortwave disturbance tracks into our area.

In other departments tonight, while widespread clouds/convection should keep legitimate fog at bay, winds will become lighter out of the north-northeast late in the night, as low temps are forecast to fall into the mid-upper 60s most areas, except low 70s far south-southeast.

- FRIDAY DAYTIME: As the upper disturbance passes over our CWA during the morning (possibly in the form of a very well-defined mesoscale convective vortex/MCV), at least spotty/isolated showers and possibly a few lingering weak thunderstorms will be possible almost anywhere initially post-sunrise, but departing east with time. In fact, most all of our CWA should be dry during the afternoon, as cloudy/mostly cloudy skies give way to at least partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. As a weak surface low passes by to our southeast, winds will generally be light (mainly 5-10 MPH) out of some variation of northerly. As for high temps, most of our CWA should be at least a few degrees cooler than today...but especially areas near/south of the KS border (5-10 degrees cooler than today). More specifically, highs ranging from low-mid 80s north...to mid 80s central to upper 80s-low 90s near/south of the state line. While especially Mitchell County KS could again reach/slightly exceed 100+ heat index, these values should be just short of justifying another Heat Advisory.

- FRIDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Fairly high confidence that the vast majority of our CWA remains dry/storm-free through at least Midnight. However, the late night hours brings yet another chance for at least isolated/scattered storms...probably most favoring the western/southern halves of our CWA. While very spotty severe cannot be totally ruled out (in fact SPC has nearly our entire CWA in a "broad brushed" Marginal Risk...this setup does not appear as concerning as the preceding few nights. Low temps very similar to tonight (mid 60s to low 70).

- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: Our "rinse and repeat" pattern continues, as while especially the morning will likely feature lingering showers/weak storms as the next upper disturbance departs, the afternoon and even evening is probably dry/mostly dry as we reside "in between" disturbances (our rain chances/PoPs are admittedly likely too high for the afternoon-evening). However, various models (including the RRFS) do depict a fairly good chance for more widespread rain/thunderstorms post-midnight...again possibly featuring at least a spotty severe threat (our entire CWA again under a broad-brushed Marginal Risk from SPC).

Temperature-wise, highs are aimed very similar to Friday (mainly 80s in Nebraska and low-mid 90s in KS...with ONE FINAL day of 100+ heat index potential mainly in our KS counties. Lows Saturday night mainly mid-upper 60s. |

- SUNDAY-MONDAY: Although spotty/intermittent chances for showers/storms remain, they are lower and less widespread than the preceding few days, as our flow aloft turns more west-northwesterly in the wake of the Saturday night disturbance. Still think we may be aiming a little too cool on high temps, but they have trended up slightly from 24 hours ago. No matter what, they will be cooler than Saturday, with most of the CWA topping out upper 70s-mid 80s.

- TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Obviously far too soon to dive into details, but MOST of this time frame looks dry, despite continued/intermittent (and fairly low...mainly 30% or lower) chances for showers/storms. Our high temperatures again may not be aimed quite warm enough according to some of the latest "raw" numerical guidance, but for now we are calling for mainly 80s all three days, with any lower 90s most favored Tuesday especially near/south of the KS line.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) are expected this morning. Most of the afternoon and evening will be dry before showers and storms possibly return around or just after 06z. MVFR to IFR ceilings are generally expected through the morning hours then will become VFR during/by the afternoon. Low ceilings are expected to return this evening into tonight. Winds will mainly be light and variable.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.