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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Critical fire weather conditions possible along/northwest of a Cambridge- Kearney-Fullerton line. A Red Flag Warning is in effect 12- 8pm for those areas.
- Southerly winds gusting 30-40mph are expected across the area today, strongest along/west of Highway 183.
- Isolated-scattered thunderstorms possible (15-25%) this evening-night west of Highway 183.
- Scattered thunderstorms possible (20-60%) along a cold front Thursday afternoon (most likely east of Highway 281). A few of these storms could be strong-severe capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.
- More widespread precipitation chances (40-75%) arrive this weekend.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions likely through the late evening hours. MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday night. Ongoing MVFR stratus is expected to remain south of KGRI/KEAR. FEW-SCT high level clouds are possible throughout the day. Around midnight, MVFR stratus is favored to build into the area from the south, though it could stop just south of KGRI/KEAR. Around the end of the TAF period, the MVFR stratus is likely to shift to the east as a cold front approaches the area. Have included the MVFR potential, though it may be shorter than what's currently in the TAF.
Southerly winds strengthen after sunrise, with gusts around 25kts by the mid-late morning. Winds increase further this afternoon, gusting 30-35kts, persisting into the evening hours. Winds gradually decrease overnight, dropping off quickly late in the TAF period as a cold front approaches KGRI/KEAR (first at KEAR).
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
Dewpoints today will range from the mid 50s southeast of the Tri- Cities to the upper 40s northwest of the Tri-Cities. Highs today will be in the 80s, warmest across western portions of the area where dewpoints are the lowest. Windy weather is expected today, with the strongest winds west of Highway 281 (gusts 35-40mph). Afternoon relative humidity values range from the low to mid 30s along/southeast of the Tri-Cities to the teens/20s northeast of the Tri-Cities. Given the overlap of lower humidity and gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are possible across northwestern portions of the area which are under a Red Flag Warning from 12-8pm today. While the area may fall shy of reaching "official" fire weather criteria (RH <= 20%, gusts >= 25mph), the strong winds, warm temperatures and near criteria RH a headline regardless. Additionally gusty winds may result in greater atmospheric mixing and lower RH than currently forecast.
A cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, with dewpoints falling into the teens/20s behind the front. Highs in the 70s combined with dewpoints result in afternoon relative humidity values of 10-20%. Breezy-gusty westerly winds gusting 20-30mph are expected behind the front. Given the overlap of breezy winds and low humidity values, an area of critical fire weather conditions is likely behind the front. There remains some uncertainty on how far east the fire threat will extend (uncertainties on the frontal timing/placement), but areas west of Highway 281 are most favored to see critical fire weather conditions (and need a Red Flag Warning).
Afternoon relative humidity values of 20-25% are possible across the area on Friday. Winds will be lighter overall, though some gusts over 20mph are possible. An area of near-critical conditions are possible wherever gusts over 20mph occur.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046-047-060-061-072-073-082. KS...None.
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