textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Some slick spots will be possible today due to the combination of periodic very light freezing drizzle/mist and flurries/light snow showers. Overall accumulation of either ice or snow will be very limited.

- Even colder air will work into the region tonight. Wind chills are expected to dip into the single digits above/below zero tonight into Sunday morning.

- The cold air will be short-lived, though, as most or all of next week is forecast to have above to well-above average temperatures. Prospects for significant precipitation remain very low through at least the next 7 days.

UPDATE

Issued at 450 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

The primary forecast concern today will be the potential for areas of periodic freezing mist/drizzle and flurries or light snow showers to cause some slick spots on area roadways and sidewalks. Latest observations show many areas, particularly along and W of Hwy 281, with some sort of minor to modest visibility reductions. Given observational trends noted here at the office N of Hastings, it's likely that anywhere where there's visibilities near/below 5 miles is seeing at least SOME level of freezing mist. Slightly heavier freezing drizzle appears to be most focused where visibilities are a bit lower in the 2-3 mile range, generally along/W of Hwy 183. Still some uncertainty on the overall impacts from this activity as we don't quite have all of the ingredients for a more prolific freezing drizzle event - namely the DEPTH of the moisture is a bit on the shallow side. However, when temperatures are this cold in the teens to lower 20s, any sort of ramping up on the drizzle intensity can quickly lead to escalation in impacts. Will be keeping a close eye on trends and whether or not a Winter Weather Advisory will be needed for slick roadways.

As far as snow potential...think any snow this morning will be limited to far N/NE zones - closer to the primary synoptic band of moderate snowfall - where moisture is slightly deeper and into favored ice crystal growth temp range. Still expect any accumulations in these areas to be a dusting to half inch, or less. Think we'll also get a quick shot of flurries and/or light snow showers along the southward plunging Arctic cold front this afternoon into early evening - particularly for areas from around the Tri-Cites to the N and NE. Strong cold air advection associated with this front will likely force temperatures within the stratus layer down to favored ice crystal growth temps of at least -12C. Typically, these types of fronts and cold temperatures are efficient at squeezing out what little moisture that's in the air into flurries. Because of the front and plentiful low cloud cover, Nebraska zones will see only steady, or even falling temperatures through the day today.

Dry conditions will return this evening as a strong surface high pressure system begins to nose it's way into the region. This will bring clearing skies and even colder temperatures into the single digits above/below zero late tonight into Sunday AM.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Today through tonight...

A broad upper trough extends from Montana to the East Coast. A surface high extends southward into Nebraska and Kansas. North to northeast winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures across the area range from the low 20s to the low 40s. It is snowing across portions of the area north of I-80 along the leading edge of a cold front. The surface high will move further east tonight with winds across the area switching towards the southeast. Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the teens to mid 20s. Precipitation may continue through tonight (less than 25% chance) with the best chances north of I-80. The precipitation will likely be in the form of freezing drizzle and/or snow. Little to no accumulation is expected; however, roads and pavement may be slick in spots.

Saturday through Sunday night...

The freezing drizzle and snow/snow flurries may continue into Saturday morning with the highest chances northeast of the Tri- Cities area (15% to around 30% chance). Little to no accumulation is expected; however, some slick spots on pavement may still be present Saturday morning. A surface high with gusty northerly winds will be across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will only be in the teens to 30s with wind chills in the single digits to the 20s during the afternoon. Low temperatures Saturday night will plummet into the single digits to low teens with wind chills values in the single digits to negative single digits. The upper trough will move a little further east on Sunday with the surface high centered over the Mississippi River. Winds will be gusty out of the south on Sunday. High temperatures will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s with wind chill values only getting up into the teens and 20s during the afternoon. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper teens to lower 20s with southwest to west winds.

Monday through Thursday...

Temperatures will be on a warming trend Monday through Wednesday as the surface high moves away from Nebraska and Kansas. The warmest day is expected to be Wednesday with a surface low across the area and winds out of a westerly direction. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s and on Wednesday they will warm up to the mid 50s to mid 60s. A cold front will push into the area Wednesday night with temperatures cooling into the 40s and 50s for Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence that the majority of the period features MVFR ceiling (possibly a few hours of IFR mainly at KEAR), and that north-northeast winds will become somewhat breezy behind a passing cold front mainly Saturday afternoon. Of lower confidence is the possibility that light freezing drizzle and/or light snow/flurries could cause at least minor visibility reduction and/or light icing impacts mainly during part of the daytime Saturday. Read on for more element-specific details.

- Ceiling/visibility/precip potential: Starting off late this Friday evening/very early Saturday morning, MVFR ceiling will persist, but do not expect any light wintry precipitation. However, closer to and especially shortly after sunrise, the combination of slightly-lower ceilings (low- end MVFR at KGRI and possibly IFR at KEAR) and increasing lift could generate at least intermittent light freezing drizzle. Confidence is only considered "medium" in whether (or not) freezing drizzle will indeed materialize, so for now have only introduced PROB30 groups...BUT if it does then light icing could become an issue. As the day wears on, increasingly colder air should eventually transition any light freezing drizzle over to flurries/light snow (no accumulation anticipated), before any potential wintry precip ends entirely by by mid-late afternoon. Although later TAFs will likely need to adjust timing by up to a few hours, am currently aiming for low clouds to lift and/or scatter out to VFR ceiling by 23Z KGRI/00Z KEAR (although sporadic small patches of MVFR-level clouds could continue passing by into the evening).

- Winds: Through a good chunk of the period (including both the first several and final several hours), sustained speeds will prevail at-or-below 10KT, with direction primarily easterly during the first 12 hours...then mainly northerly during the latter 12 hours. However, several hours of somewhat-breezy conditions will develop especially 19-23Z in the wake of a passing cold front, with sustained speeds commonly around 15KT/gusts around 20KT.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.