textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread fog, locally dense, will continue through the morning hours with a dense fog advisory in effect for all areas until Noon CST.

- Persistent dreary conditions will keep a prolonged period of relatively low chances (20-50%) for off and on drizzle or light rain through at least the first half of Wednesday. Low QPF amounts anticipated.

- A nice warmup (highs near 70) arrives for Thursday ahead of the next storm system that will bring chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night. A marginal risk for severe weather is highlighted with this system from the SPC.

- Above to well-above normal temperatures are expected to dominate the first 10 days of March.

UPDATE

Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Areas of dense fog are being observed across the local area this morning. Winds have dropped off nicely the past hour, and expect the already dense fog to become more widespread by daybreak, with models indicating it could linger through around noon in spots. While many areas may see some improvement in conditions by mid/late morning, will tackle the improving conditions by trimming the current advisory as necessary later this morning.

While visibilities will improve by noon, cloudy skies, some light drizzle/rain will continue across the area through the afternoon hours, making for another dreary day across the local area. While there could be some additional fog development overnight tonight into Wednesday morning, all signs are that it should be less dense/widespread with SREF probs significantly lower for fog (30%) for Wednesday AM and most mesoscale models (such as 06Z HRRR) keeping any dense fog potential extremely spotty/limited.

As skies finally clear across the local area by midday Wednesday, expect the return of at least partial sunshine to help aid in temperatures returning to the 50s/60s by the afternoon hours. This will just be a teaser of Thursday, when temperatures should peak closer to 70 ahead of the next upper level disturbance forecast to cross the area on Friday. Ahead of this wave, instability will build across the area Thursday evening, with a some elevated instability potentially being tapped by an increasing LLJ that could spark some thunderstorms across the local area. Given the elevated nature of these storms, strong winds (to 60 MPH) and marginally severe hail (to the size of quarters) may be possible with the stronger storms, and nearly the entire area is now highlighted in a marginal risk for severe weather Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Been a rather dreary day out there thus far, and don't really see anything to change this over the next 24-36 hours. In fact, many areas probably won't see sunshine until some point Wednesday afternoon. Until then, abundant low level moisture trapped beneath a stout temperature inversion based around 800mb will keep low clouds and fog in place. Latest model guidance continues to suggest high probabilities for dense fog late this evening, and especially overnight into Tuesday morning. Fortunately, temperatures should remain above freezing for MOST of the area. The exception could be a narrow swath from around Lexington to Ord that briefly reaches 31-32F. Thus, not expecting the fog to cause slickness issues at this time. Strongly considered a relatively long-lead Dense Fog Advisory, but opted to hold off as sometimes these so-called "obvious" setups end up being more in the 1-2 mile range but with very low 100-200ft ceilings. Mixing remains very weak on Tuesday, so even if visibilities improve for the afternoon, doubt the low clouds will completely dissipate. As a result of the stubborn clouds, going highs for Tuesday in the upper 40s to lower 50s may be a few deg too warm. Could be looking at a repeat scenario of fairly widespread fog once again Tue eve/night into Wed AM.

Have continued a plethora of drizzle/rain chances in the short term as a broad upper trough sweeps W to E across the Central Plains, generally deamplifying as it does so. Off and on bouts of modest lift, combined with existing low level moisture AND brief bouts of mid level moisture, will probably be enough to squeeze out some showers and/or drizzle at just about any time through Wed AM. With that said, NOT expecting much in the way of appreciable amounts - likely a tenth of an inch, or less, for most locations. Perhaps the extreme NW (Ord area) and the far SE (Hebron area) could see a bit more...but probabilities for >0.1" of moisture for these areas is still only 20-40%.

By far, the nicest/warmest day of the week continues to look like it'll be Thursday. Much less cloud cover and moderate southerly breezes should boost highs well into the 60s, and likely even some mid 70s in our favored warm SW spots. Enough of the early week low level moisture looks to stick around to keep fire weather conditions below critical levels.

The warm-up will come ahead of our next upper level trough on Friday, which model guidance actually indicates could be fairly deep. Could see our rain chances increase as early as Thu eve/night within a zone of strong low level warm air and moisture advection that could support some elevated convection. Will also have another chance with the ejection of the main wave on Friday. The Friday potential will greatly depend on exact timing and track of pertinent low level features. General consensus right now is that much of the forecast area could get "dry-slotted" - with the primary low level convergence/moisture favoring strong-severe convection just to our E/SE, and colder "wrap-around" moisture further W/NW from the Panhandle into the Sandhills. Obviously, a shift in track N or S could change our forecast quite a bit - so just stay tuned for refinements throughout the week.

The late week trough looks to lack significant cold air behind it, so latest model blends and ensembles support a quick recovery for temperatures next weekend. Saturday may still be a bit "cool" in the 50s/60s, but expect warmer 60s/70s to return for Sunday if current trends hold.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 524 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR/LIFR conditions will likely persist at both terminals through at least 03/18Z...with CIGS improving some to MVFR levels during the afternoon hours. As the sun angle goes down late in the day, expect a return to at least IFR conditions again tonight...with some MVFR VSBYS possible in light BR. Overall...winds will be light at less than 10 KTS through the period...transitioning from SE to NE by midday.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ039>041-046>049- 060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ005>007-017>019.