textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A "medium confidence" Frost Advisory is in effect 1-8 AM Thursday for mainly the western half of our forecast area...primarily counties west of Highway 281.

- Light showers/sprinkles may develop (10%-15% chance) Thursday evening and night.

- Fire weather concerns increase to at least near-critical levels Friday, and perhaps again for Monday.

- Showers and storms (a few strong to perhaps severe?) may affect parts of our area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 739 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- Some updates/notes regarding the previously-issued Frost Advisory for tonight-Thursday AM:

- The very basics: The time duration of the Advisory has been "shrunk" from 10pm-9am...to now 1am-8am, as this new timing better reflects the true "window of opportunity" for possible frost.

- More details: As Frost Advisories go, this one is admittedly on the marginal/"medium confidence" side...and probably errs on the side of caution for most places.

As has been discussed here at times over the past few days, the weather setup late tonight-early Thursday morning is not your classic "ridge night" with near-calm winds and a surface high pressure system almost directly on top of us. Instead, tonight is actually a warm air advection night (WAA), with most areas experiencing steady southwesterly breezes that actually increase post-midnight...generally sustained 10-15 MPH/sporadic gusts 20+ MPH. As a result, despite clear skies (always favorable for a temperature drop), those breezes/associated low-level WAA should really counter the clear skies and keep temps from "tanking". Official low temps have been nudged up a few degrees from previous forecast, with even much of the Frost Advisory area now expected to bottom out no colder than 33-37 degrees. While these temperatures at least marginally-support patchy frost development, the aforementioned steady breezes should HEAVILY confine frost to limited, low-lying and wind-sheltered locations. In other words, the MAJORITY of the Advisory area probably won't see frost. These mitigating factors have also been included in an "Additional Details" bullet in our latest official Advisory statement.

All that being said: Given that we are now nearly a week into May and more and more home owners/garden centers have either planted sensitive vegetation or rolled out their inventory into outdoor settings, we will continue with this Frost Advisory (again, erring on the side of caution), while fully acknowledging that MOST of the Advisory area probably won't actually realize frost formation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

An upper trough extends from the Upper Midwest to the Desert Southwest. Skies are mostly cloudy across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas with temperatures mostly in the 50s. Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s tonight with clearing skies. Winds will be out of the southwest tonight ranging from 5 to 15 MPH. There is potential (around 50% to 60% chance) for frost to develop tonight mainly along and west of Highway 281, although there is some uncertainty in wind speed, moisture, and temperatures. This will likely (80%-90% chance) be the last frost/freeze potential for this season. Some isolated locations, especially across the far western portion of the forecast area, may experience temperatures as low as 32 degrees. A Frost Advisory has been issued for tonight into Thursday morning for most locations along and west of Highway 281.

Winds will mainly be out of the west on Thursday with temperatures warming up into the upper 60s to mid/upper 70s. A shortwave will move over the area Thursday night and may result (10%-15% chance) in some light rain/sprinkles across portions of the area. Winds will begin to become northerly Thursday night with low temperatures mostly in the 40s. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be similar to those on Thursday. North to northwest winds are expected on Friday. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may develop Friday afternoon, especially across western portions of the area. Low temperatures Friday night will again be in the 40s.

A cold front will push into the region on Saturday, but temperatures are expected to warm up into the 70s and 80s. A shortwave is expected along with the front and may result (up to around 70% chance) in showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. There is potential for severe storms due to increase in lift, higher CAPE, wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates. Severe potential will continue to be monitored. The cold front will continue moving through the area Saturday night with high temperatures on Sunday mostly in the low to mid 70s. Winds will mostly be out of the south on Monday with temperatures warming up into the 80s to low 90s. Fire weather concerns increase again on Monday with wind gusts up to around 20-30 MPH and humidity down to 15%-20% just west of the Tri- Cities area. Similar high temperatures are expected on Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Southwest winds gusting around 20kts are expected through the overnight hours, shifting to the west-southwest after sunrise. By the late morning hours, gusts fall below 20kts as winds become northwesterly. After sunset, scattered showers move into the area with ceilings becoming SCT-BKN around 080-100. Have indicated this potential with a PROB30 group.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039-040-046- 060-061-072>074-082>084. KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005-006-017- 018.