textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dwindling severe weather threat today and tonight, esp. for south central Nebraska. Portions of northern Kansas may still be under some severe threat overnight, but even this is trending lower.

- Scattered showers and generally weak thunderstorms may persist into Monday AM, mainly along and E of Hwy 281. Severe threat on Monday should remain east of the local area.

- The rest of the forecast is chilly with off and on chances for light moisture.

- The main concern for the upcoming work week will be frequent opportunities for frost and freeze conditions, most notably Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Bottom line regarding the severe threat today and tonight is that is decreasing quite a bit. Can't say with certainty that there won't still be some strong/severe storms over mainly portions of northern Kansas tonight, but even this is looking increasingly unlikely owing to lack of deep instability.

Expect a nice lull rest of this afternoon and into the evening thanks to subsidence behind the earlier wave. It will remain very dreary and chilly though with no impetus for low level mixing to increase and help scatter out the widespread stratus. Timing for the next round looks to be around and after midnight and into early Monday AM. Forcing and shear/kinematics will be there for severe storms, but latest HRRR runs keep any MUCAPE >1000 J/kg south of the NE/KS state line...and the nose of the more substantial (>2000 J/kg) MUCAPE closer to I-70. My gut tells me areas from around Stockton to Hebron S and E still have a non- zero chance for some severe storms with this round...but probably only a hail threat. Forecast soundings from the Beloit area show a very stable lowest 4K ft, with most/all of the CAPE increase noted in the 4-7K ft layer. This would make tornadogenesis and even damaging winds VERY difficult to achieve. A strengthening LLJ will help feed the uptick in convective coverage/strength late tonight, and appears it will veer E of the area by sunrise (probably even by 09Z). Off and on scattered elevated convection could persist for central and eastern areas through the morning as the primary core of the upper trough swings through.

Obviously will continue to monitor observations and trends...but in my experience, such widespread coverage of such cold/stable conditions locally and in the immediate upstream airmass is not conducive to significant severe weather. Some hail threat from elevated storms persists until the entire trough passes through, but finding it increasingly difficult to message any sort of damaging wind and tornado threat given the latest trends.

May need to add some add some sprinkles to the forecast for tomorrow afternoon/early evening for northern areas. Steep low level lapse rates and strong cold air advection could support some decent cu/stratocu.

Models continue to indicate a band of light precipitation (probably mostly rain, can't rule out some wet snow) moving in from the W Monday night, and continuing into the day on Tuesday. The associated cloud cover and weak low level mixing will keep highs cool in the 50s. This could set the stage for relatively widespread frost and freeze conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as clouds clear out and winds remain light. Sub-freezing temperatures are currently most likely for the Tri-Cities, north and west. However, even Beloit/Hebron could fall into the mid 30s and support frost formation.

Additional off and on rain chances continue into Wednesday and Thursday, but haven't spent a lot of time looking into the specifics. Even without the showers, it looks to remain cool for the entire work week with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the upper 20s/30s. At least patchy frost could develop each night through Saturday morning, but this will depend on cloud/wind details that are impossible to pin down this far out. Just keep that in mind in case you have planted your gardens and pots already. Hopefully, we can get back to more seasonable 70s next weekend. Fingers crossed...next weekend should also be dry and just overall more pleasant than this weekend has been.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 536 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR ceilings will persist through through tonight, with ceilings only slowly improving to MVFR on Monday. Patchy fog/mist is also expected at times through sunrise on Monday.

The potential for thunderstorms continues to decrease. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be completely ruled out in the 06-18Z timeframe, but for the most part it should just be rain showers.

Light ENE winds turn to the northwest early Monday morning and increase. Gusts near 30kts are expected Monday afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.