textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected today with a Red Flag Warning in effect 12pm to 9pm.

- High Wind Watch in effect 9pm to 3am Friday across northeastern portions of the area where gusts up to 60mph are possible.

- Highs today in the 70s with west-southwesterly winds gusting 35-45mph.

- Windy weather returns Sunday with gusts over 50mph possible along with light snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 20s with mostly clear skies. Aloft a shortwave trough is moving over the northern Rockies. A deepening low moves into the Plains this morning, lifting a warm front across the area. As the atmosphere begins to mix this morning, gusty southwesterly winds develop over the area, gusting 30-40mph. Highs today will soar into the 70s aided by strong southwesterly flow. Warm temperatures and deep mixing as shown in forecast soundings result in afternoon relative humidity values falling below 20% across the area. A push of stronger winds moves into the area from the west during the mid-late afternoon hours, with gusts to 45mph. Combined, this results in critical fire weather conditions across the area during the afternoon and evening hours with rapid fire growth possible in fires that develop. A Red Flag Warning is in effect 12pm to 9pm.

A cold front dives into the area this evening, bringing a threat for strong northerly winds to the area. some hi-res model guidance like the HRRR indicates an area of strong winds with gusts up to 60mph possible across northeastern portions of the area. Not all guidance support winds this strong, though a window of gusty winds is still favored across northeastern portions of the area behind the front. Forecast soundings show 50kt winds stretching down as low as 925mb aloft, with a fairly shallow inversion due to daytime mixing which would support a potential for headline worthy winds. In collaboration with neighboring offices, a High Wind Watch was issued from 9pm today through 3am Friday where there is the greatest model support for high winds (counties along/north of I-80 And east of Highway 183).

Winds steadily weaken during the early morning hours, with gusts falling below 20mph for most areas by sunrise. Cooler but still seasonably warm weather is expected on Friday with highs in the 50s (central/northeast) and 60s (southwest). A brief window of near- critical fire weather conditions may develop along/west of Highway 283 during the afternoon-evening hours.

Otherwise the other main forecast concern remains on track as another round of strong winds are possible on Sunday behind a deepening low pressure system. ECMWF ensembles indicate a 30-60% chance for wind gusts of 60mph. Light snow is also possible, which combined with the strong winds may result in reduced visibilities in falling snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The quick dusting+ of snow that accumulated on grassy and elevated surfaces this morning can be seen rapidly eroding on satellite imagery this afternoon...with little coverage remaining as of 2 PM. Some fair weather CU can also be seen developing on satellite, but all indications from model data and soundings are that this will not be deep enough to support any showers/sprinkles this afternoon.

As the frontal boundary that brought some light (and in some cases modest) snowfall to the area this morning continues to push southeast of the local area, expect southerly return flow to begin to develop across the area overnight tonight. As the pressure gradient then tighten on the backside of this high ahead of the next cold front Thursday afternoon, expect winds to really crank up, with a windy and dry day expected across the region. With wind gusts 40+ MPH and RH values below 20 percent, widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected, and upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning earlier this afternoon.

Expect yet another cold front to cross the area Thursday night, with just the smallest chance (20%) for a shower overnight across our northeast, with cooler, but less windy conditions expected across the area Friday. Temperatures will then rebound Saturday (more fire weather concerns?) dropping more significantly behind another cold front Sunday morning. This yo yo in temperatures will result in high temperatures topping out only in the 30s for much of the area Sunday afternoon, along with very strong winds and a small chance (20-50%) for some light snowfall accumulation. Any snow with winds 50+ MPH across the area could result in reduced visibilities, especially for northern areas that are most likely to see light snowfall accumulations. While visibilities will be a concern, the raw strength of the winds could also be an issue with a significant number of the EC ensemble members showing an increasing potential for 60+ MPH wind gusts Sunday afternoon - which may eventually warrant the need for a High Wind Warning.

As winds then die off Sunday evening, expect a very cold start to the work week, with lower teens currently in the forecast to start the day Monday. Temperatures thereafter begin to moderate as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the area from the west, and this high will likely help temperatures soar well above normal again by the middle of next week with a potentially prolonged period of above normal temperatures (and dry conditions) then expected to extend through potentially the end of March.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions expected through TAF period. LLWS possible around sunrise, and around sunset. Southwesterly winds of 5-10kts are expected through the early morning hours. Before sunrise, winds rapidly strengthen aloft with LLWS developing over the area. LLWS will weaken during the mid-late morning hours as surface winds strengthen. Gusty-Strong southwesterly winds sustained 20-25kts and gusting around 35kts are expected mid morning-early afternoon. During the mid-late afternoon hours, winds shift to the west and strengthen further, with gusts of 35-40kts. Winds drop off around sunset, as gusts fall to or below 30kts, with LLWS redeveloping aloft. LLWS will weaken late in the TAF period as a cold front moves through the area with winds shifting to the northwest wind gusts climbing reaching 30-40kts (highest at KGRI).

FEW-SCT high level clouds are possible throughout the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected across the area today with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 12pm to 9pm today. Southwesterly winds gusting 30-40mph will develop by the mid morning hours as the atmosphere begins to mix. Highs climb into the 70s today with soundings showing deep mixing which results in afternoon relative humidity values falling below 20% across the area. Winds shift to the west during the mid-late afternoon hours as a push of stronger winds moves into the area, with gusts to 45mph. Winds weaken somewhat around sunset, though gusts may still reach 30- 35mph.

A cold front moves into the area around 9-11pm with winds shifting to the north behind the front and strengthening once again, particularly along/north of Interstate 80 and along/east of Highway 281 where gusts may reach 50-60mph. Relative humidity values will likely be slow to improve, with most areas remaining below 40% through midnight. If greater winds do unfold (as shown in the HRRR/RAP, it could result in humidity values falling back into the 20s after midnight. Otherwise, cooler temperatures behind the front will see a slow improvement in dewpoints overnight, reaching 50% by sunrise on Friday. Winds steadily decrease during the early morning hours, with most areas seeing gusts fall below 20mph by sunrise.

Fire weather concerns continue into the weekend due to breezy winds and lower relative humidity values resulting in near-critical fire weather conditions across portions of the area during the afternoon. Strong winds gusting over 50mph are possible on Sunday, but cooler temperatures and chances for snow bring uncertainty on the fire weather potential.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.