textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Can't rule out a few showers moving into western areas this morning...but most locations will see dry conditions during the day today. Late in the day-evening, there will be the potential for scattered storms to develop/impact mainly NWrn portions of the area.

- Sunday and Memorial Day are expected to be dry during the day for most of the area...but both days will have the chance for late day-evening thunderstorms developing/moving in from the NW. Storms on Sunday will have the potential for some storms to be strong-severe...and much of the area is included in the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area.

- Tuesday through Friday continues to have numerous chances for precipitation, as a large area of low pressure/trough moves into the western CONUS. Lot of uncertainty in the details this far out, so chances are pretty broad in nature.

UPDATE

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Currently...

Seeing overall quiet conditions early this morning across the forecast area...radar showing a line of scattered showers/storms extending from north central IA southward into eastern KS, with some scattered showers over western KS. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show an area of low pressure over eastern ND, with a southward extending trough axis helping drive those showers/storms off to our east...while another more subtle shortwave disturbance can be seen sliding east across UT/CO. At the surface, winds across the area are on the light/variable side to light/westerly, thanks to high pressure building into the area behind the main frontal boundary off to our east. With the lighter winds and recent rainfall...is some concern about fog developing as we get closer to dawn, but increasing cloud cover and the fact winds are westerly looks to help keep that concern low...hi-res models aren't showing much at this point.

Today and tonight...

Models continue to show the start of the weekend being dry for much of the area...though that upper level shortwave disturbance will be working its way east through the area during the daytime-evening hours. Not out of the question that some sprinkles/showers working their way into western areas this morning...but models have that activity waning by mid-late morning. Later this afternoon-early evening, models then show the potential for some thunderstorms developing as that upper level disturbances moves through, near sfc boundaries that may be set up over western and north central portions of NE. Models continue to show coverage being fairly scattered...with the best chances being across our NWrn half, waning with time further ESE. With dewpoints topping out only in the 40s, models not showing notable instability present...thinking the threat for severe weather is low. Once that activity wanes, the remainder of the overnight hours look to be dry.

Winds will be switching to the south from west to east with time today, as sfc high pressure slides east of the forecast area...speeds will be on the light side, topping out around 10-15 MPH. Models show sky cover being variable through the day, periods of partly-mostly cloudy, periods of more sun peeking through. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-70.

Sunday and Memorial Day...

Still some details to iron out for the rest of the holiday weekend...but much of the daytime hours both days has the potential to be dry. Models show generally zonal upper level flow across the area on Sunday, turning a bit more southwesterly on Monday as a couple of upper level low pressure systems work onto the West Coast. There will be the potential both days for subtle shortwave disturbances to push through the region, sparking off at least scattered thunderstorms along a sfc frontal boundary that at this point models initially have off to the NW of the forecast area. Not a ton of confidence in the finer details of just how far outside the area those boundaries area/storms develop...but models have that activity making its way in during the late day-evening hours. Because of the lingering uncertainties, forecast precip chances remain on the lower side (20-30 percent range)...will see how models trend over the upcoming runs. With better moisture/50s dewpoints working in on Sunday with increased southerly low level flow, models showing better instability available, with deeper layer shear around 30-35kts...so there is concern that some of the storms that develop could be strong to severe, and much of the forecast area is included the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area. More uncertainty exists for severe potential on Monday...models suggesting a decrease in both shear and instability.

Outside of precipitation chances, both Sun-Mon are expected to have breezy southerly winds, with speeds around 15-20 MPH possible. Also expecting a bump in temperatures, with mid-80s on Sunday and upper 80s for Monday.

Tuesday through Friday...

Quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast during the mid-late week timeframe...with models showing a fairly large area of low pressure/troughing setting up over the western CONUS. There are differences with exactly where the low sets up...and the impact on flow across the Central Plains. Precipitation chances remain in the forecast pretty much non-stop from Tuesday evening through Friday...and because of the uncertainties, are broad/CWA-wide. At this point not looking at any notable swings in temperatures either way...with forecast highs mainly in the upper 70s-low 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

This afternoon and Tonight

A cold front currently located near Highway 81 continues to make its way across the forecast area this afternoon. A few lingering showers continue near-just behind the front. The axis of greatest instability shifting east of the area with the cold front makes it doubtful that these showers/storms will do much before exiting the area over the next couple of hours. Clearing skies this evening and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s overnight.

Saturday...

Highs on Saturday climb into the 70s as a passing shortwave trough moves into the Plains. Partly cloudy skies and light winds make for an overall pleasant day on Saturday. The aforementioned shortwave trough will aid the development of a few scattered thunderstorms over western Nebraska Saturday afternoon-evening. While inhibition increases around sunset and results in these storms weakening, it remains plausible that a couple of these storms linger just long enough to make it into far northwestern portions of the area before dissipating Saturday night.

Sunday and Memorial Day...

Southwesterly flow aloft transitions to a more west-northwesterly flow pattern on Sunday. At the surface, highs climb into the 80s aided by breezy southerly winds gusting 20-25mph. Scattered shower/thunderstorm development is possible Sunday afternoon-evening along the surface trough/dryline in west-central Nebraska. CAPE and shear would be sufficient for storms to become strong to marginally severe. These storms look to mainly impact northwestern portions of the area. Any storm would gradually dissipate after sunset as convective inhibition increases.

Warmth continues on Memorial Day as temperatures climb into the 80s during the afternoon. Another breezy day is expected with southerly winds gusting 20-30mph. Similar to this weekend, a few scattered thunderstorms may develop across portions of Nebraska. Details on timing of any storm will become clearer as we get closer (likely afternoon/evening).

Tuesday Onwards...

Troughing moves into the western U.S. on Tuesday and subsequently stalls out, placing the area under southwesterly flow-weak ridging. Near to above normal temperatures are expected, with highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. This pattern also results in scattered, off and on chances for precipitation Tuesday night onwards.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are extremely likely throughout much of the forecast period, with light northwesterly winds and clearing skies currently present over both terminals. Over the next few hours, midlevel overcast skies will move into the area, persisting through much of the morning hours. This cloud cover will gradually break up, becoming more scattered by the afternoon. Winds will also rotate counterclockwise throughout the forecast period as high pressure builds into the area, becoming more southerly by 21Z at both locations.

Current model guidance highlights the possibility of showers and non-severe thunderstorms moving over the terminals Saturday afternoon/evening. However,there is some uncertainty on the timing and exact coverage of these storms, hence the PROB30 group.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.