textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Been another day of well above normal temperatures at gusty winds (though not as strong as Sat). Monday brings potential for another round of highs in the 80s-low 90s. Some uncertainty lingers with highs due to a sfc boundary working its way into the area.

- Surface front continues sinking south into Tuesday...again making a bit of headache for the temp forecast...currently have mid 60s in the far NNW to mid-upper 80s in the far SE. Where this front ends up is of interest...as thunderstorms are expected to develop along it as we get into the late afternoon-evening hours. Best chances look to be over roughly SErn third or so of the area. Some storms could be strong- severe.

- Better precip chances work their way in Wednesday, more so for Thursday. This system also brings an end to those brutal highs...with temps falling back closer to normal into the 60s.

- Friday is currently forecast to be the overall coolest day, with highs in the 50s-near 60. While this is still several days out and need to see how models trend...will be watching the potential for frost Fri night-Sat morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Currently...

Conditions across the area continue to sound like a broken record...dry, with well above normal temperatures. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data continue to show southwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains this afternoon. This is driven by upper level riding extending north from the eastern Srn Plains northward toward the western Great Lakes...set up between one area of low pressure working its way east through the Midwest, and troughing set up along the West Coast. At the surface, lower pressure sits over eastern portions of CO...with a trough axis/cold front extending northeast through SW-North central NE into eastern SD. This sfc boundary being in closer to proximity to the local forecast area is helping keep winds from being as strong/widespread as it was on Saturday. Seeing quite a range across the forecast area...with ODX/LXN on the light/variable to at times calm side, vs gusts exceeding 30 MPH across far SSE portions of the area. Had more widespread coverage of upper level clouds to start the day...but that has diminished/pushed east with time...leaving mostly sunny skies for most of the area this afternoon. Hasn't been any big surprises as far as temperatures go...if anything, those far NNW locations may fall a few degrees short, with other locations solidly in the mid-upper 80s to low 90s (SSE areas).

Tonight through Monday Night...

Through this more immediate, short-term period through Monday night...most the far majority of the forecast area, it will continue to be a dry period. Models are in good agreement with not showing any notable change in the overall upper level flow...remaining southwesterly. The upper level high/ridge axis shifts a bit further east...while the main low pressure system becomes more centered roughly over southern NV. A piece of shortwave energy riding around the edge of the ridging into the Dakotas late tonight and moreso during the day on Monday...the main impact for our area being the sfc frontal boundary gets more of push. Still some uncertainties with the exact timing of the front/where it ends up by the end of the day...which could potentially really throw a wrench in the wind/high temperature forecast. At this point, the forecast remains on the warmer side...with increasing mixing into warmer air aloft ahead of the front allowing more more areas to potentially reach into the low 90s (mainly central/southeastern two-thirds of the area). Expecting another day with plenty of sun around...and until that boundary pushes further in...gusty winds will be possible out ahead of it. Afternoon relative humidity values falling to near/below 30 will be possible once again, bringing another round of at least elevated fire weather concerns.

If there is going to be any preciptiation through this time frame, it looks to come mid-evening Monday into the pre-dawn hours Tuesday...confined to far ESE portions of the area. A few models continue to show the potential for some isolated/scattered precip developing along the nose of increased warm-air advection/lift...because there isn't a ton of support from other models, kept chances confined to 20 percent.

Tuesday through Thursday....

Better chances for precipitation finally work their way into the region as we get into the mid-week period...but there are still some uncertainties with the timing...and overall coverage, especially early on. During the day on Tuesday...the main upper level low pressure system is still working its way east through the Desert SW/Rockies...with the surface frontal boundary expected to continue its gradual southward push. Big question for later Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours will be driven by where that surface front ends up...as it looks to be the focus for thunderstorm development. Forecast precipitation chances are still on the broad side into the evening-overnight hours Tuesday because of some of those lingering questions with location...the highest chances of 60+ percent remain across roughly the southeastern third of the forecast area. Some better instability will work its way in ahead of the front...not out of the question that some storms could be strong/severe...and the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area continues to clip our SErn corner.

While forecast precipitation chances remain area-wide, late Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday brings a bit of a lull in chances...before ramping back up Wednesday evening into Thursday. These increased chances are driven by the passage of the main upper low itself...crossing right over the area at some point during the day on Thursday. Just how quickly that occurs and precip ends remains a little uncertain...GFS remains on the quicker side vs the ECMWF. Not talking about a significant difference...more on the scale of 6hrs or so...both have QPF gone by 06Z Friday.

As far as temperatures go, the most notable thing here is the end to the well above average highs. Average highs for this time of year are in the upper 60s north to low 70s south (we're sitting 20 degrees higher than that just today!)...forecast is much closer to that by the time Wed-Thu rolls around. Tuesday is another low- confidence temp forecast because of the sfc boundary working its way through...quite a range forecast across the area, with mid 60s in the far NNW to mid-upper 80s in the far SE.

Friday into next weekend...

Forecast dries back out for the end of the work weekend into next weekend...but there are some model differences whether we see some broad upper level ridging work its way back in or another system is at least in the area. The cooler conditions continue into Friday and Saturday...current forecast highs for Friday are only in the mid 50s to low 60s. Will see how models trend in the coming days...but will be monitoring the potential for our first frost of the season Friday night into Saturday morning. Current forecast has light winds...with lows dropping into the mid-30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions remain in the forecast for this TAF period. Gusty SSW winds are expected to continue through the afternoon hours, with gusts near 20-25 MPH expected. Speeds taper off this evening/overnight...how much so is still a little uncertain, as models differ with just how far south a weak sfc boundary sinks. Currently kept winds southerly overnight, but if that front pushes much further south, winds may be more light/variable. Kept some very marginal LLWS in for both sites from 04-08Z...again confidence is not high due to question with the lower level boundaries, further south would push the better LLWS potential south as well. Closer to sunrise and on through the end of this period, winds will turn more WSW, as another sfc boundary approaches from the WNW. Any clouds passing through the area are expected to remain near/above 10k ft.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.