textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- After days of dry conditions, this evening-tonight marks the start of a wetter period...with precipitation chances lingering through the day on Wednesday.

- Best potential for total amounts exceeding 0.25-0.5in remain focused over SW portions of the forecast area (mainly SW of the Tri-Cities).

- Following highs in the 70s-80s the past few days and plenty of sun overall...Tue-Wed looking to be mostly cloudy and cooler, with highs topping out in the 50s.

- Forecast is largely dry for Thu-Fri, with additional precip chances returning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Currently...

Dry conditions have continued into the afternoon hours today...with a few more clouds working their way in from the west. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data show west- northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains. This flow is set up on the southern edge of a larger area of low pressure spinning over Ontario, with WSWward extending troughing sinking south. Accompanying this system is a surface cold front...which has made its way through all but southern portions of the forecast area here at mid-afternoon. Behind the front, NNE winds have been gusty...gusting around 25-30 MPH at times. Hasn't been any surprises with temperatures...highs will end up topping out well in the 70s across the northern half, with some low-mid 80s across the south.

This evening through Wednesday...

As that better upper level lift continues to work into the area, can't rule out some scattered showers and storms developing late this afternoon, and moreso into this evening...mainly in proximity of that frontal boundary. Not totally out of the question a few storms could be on the stronger side...but instability is lacking, as dewpoints are only in the 30s-low 40s, SPC meso page showing only around 500 j/kg of MUCAPE over southern portions of the area. Better instability and potential for severe storms still looking to remain focused off to our ESE where dewpoints are at least in the 50s. Day 1 Marginal Risk area remains outside of the forecast area. Through the rest of the overnight hours...continued lift keeps precipitation potential lingering around the area...but there is still uncertainty between models with the overall coverage. Hard to have a high degree of confidence...some models show coverage being pretty sparse, others have more widespread/scattered activity, esp. closer to/after midnight.

Confidence in how precipitation chances evolve through the day on Tuesday remains low...and am concerned that forecast PoPs are too high/broad in nature. The daytime hours (or at least a portion of) may end up being somewhat of an overall lull...sitting between the initial push of upper level lift today/tonight and ahead of another push that is expected to move in more into Tuesday night-Wednesday. The better chances during the day remain focused across the SWrn half of the forecast area...and there are some notable differences between models with the northeastward extent of precip chances...some models have very little for areas especially NE of the Tri-Cities. That also remains the case as we get into Tue night- Wednesday as that next main upper wave moves through...but there has been better model agreement (at least up to now) that NNE areas would have lower chances...and the forecast is dry for the day on Wed for those locations. As far as amounts go...for the NErn half of the forecast area (basically the Tri-Cities and NNE), current probabilities of 0.25 in or more is near/below 30%. Those probabilities increase the further SW you go, closer to 80% in our far SW corner. Though a small area in our SW corner, GFS/ECMWF ensem probabilities of 0.5 or more being around 40-50 percent.

Along with the increased precipitation chances continuing through mid-week...this pattern and our area sitting on the northern side of the sfc front will keep things cool. Expecting plenty of cloud cover, with winds remaining generally northerly, but on the lighter side generally around 10-15 MPH. Normal high temps for this time of year are in the mid 60s to near 70...forecast highs for both Tuesday and Wednesday remain in the 50s.

Thursday on through the weekend...

As this latest upper level trough axis pushes east of the area Wednesday night, the forecast dries out, continuing into the day on Thursday. Late Wed night-early Thu AM...cloud cover is expected to diminish and winds taper off...and another round of frost is not out of the question as lows drop into the low-mid 30s. Winds transition to more westerly with time by Thu AM...some uncertainty with whether they lighten enough to allow for frost. Westerly winds continue into the daytime hours on Thursday, and with more sun and a moderating airmass...highs climb back into the low 70s.

The upper level pattern on Thursday turns back to the northwest in the wake of Wednesday's system...with the next chance for any precipitation coming Thu night-Fri AM as an overall weak shortwave disturbance slides through the area. Chances remain low (20 percent) at this point as models show precipitation being fairly spotty in nature. Not much change in the pattern until we get into the upcoming weekend, as another larger area of low pressure setting up over central Canada drives broad ridging into much of the CONUS. Potential for additional embedded shortwave disturbances to move through the area brings precipitation chances back for the weekend...best chances are currently focused on Sat night-Sun AM.

As far as temperatures go...expecting a gradual climb through the end of the week, with mid 70s-near 80 expected for Saturday. The upper level disturbance/increased precip chances look to bring a cooler Sunday, with forecast highs back in the 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Rain showers move into the area this evening into tonight. There may be a brief break in the morning, followed by additional light rain showers Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Despite this, overall VFR conditions are favored. There is only a low chance (10%) for brief periods of MVFR visibility in the heavier showers. There is also a low chance (25%) for some MVFR ceilings to sneak into EAR late Tuesday afternoon.

Gusty northeast winds taper off tonight and will remain out of the NNE to north through the day on Tuesday.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.