textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- The last of today's rain showers will soon come to an end, finally clearing out of the areas south of HWY-6 and east of HWY-183 this afternoon.

- Areas of fog developing tonight should mainly stay south of I-80. Though a few patches of dense fog may be possible, the probability for dense fog becoming widespread is limited (20-50% chance).

- Drying conditions with the continuation of seasonably warm temperatures will reignite some fire-weather potential both Sunday and especially Tuesday afternoon. A red flag warning will be in effect from noon until 6PM Sunday for a few south central Nebraska counties. Please refer to the Fire Weather Section for more information.

- The next precipitation potential currently lies Tuesday night (10-30% chance) with slighter better potential Thursday/Friday (20-40% chances). Light snow may be possible Thursday into Friday morning.

- Temperatures will stay between the 60s and 70s through Wednesday before taking a slide down to the 40s to low 50s from Thursday and through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Only a few remaining showers linger across southwest portions of the area this afternoon (mainly south of HWY-6 and east of HWY-183). The last of these rain showers will quickly dissipate this evening, followed by clearing skies across the rest of the night. Residual moisture with expected light to calm winds overnight may help allow some some fog to form. The overall best potential for fog will be concentrated towards portions of the area that received more meaningful precipitation amounts today (areas south of I-80). Though a few denser patches of fog may arise (20-30% HREF & 20-50% REFS chances), it is not certain that coverage will spread enough to provoke the need for a Dense Fog Advisory.

A surface low, situated across the Southern Plains today, will continue to move east tonight and tomorrow. Higher pressure will rebound in the low's wake, turning the surface winds towards the southeast for Sunday. Aloft, a ridge will start to move in overhead, bringing some stabilization and drier conditions to the area. Steady 10-20 MPH southwest downsloping winds (adiabatic warming) paired with clearing skies Sunday (diurnal warming) should allow temperatures to spread up and into the mid to upper 60s. A handful of northwestern lying locations can't be completely ruled out to break into the low 70s even (10-20% chance).

A few clouds rolling in Monday should not dampen this warming trend as southerly light warming winds will be expected to maintain along with deep subsidence aloft from the upper-level riding pattern. Highs for the week are favored to peak Tuesday (70s) with gusty southwesterly winds (25-35MPH) cranking up the downslope warming trend. Fire Weather concerns return to the area Sunday afternoon with an even stronger potential Tuesday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for Dawson, Furnas, Gosper, Sherman and Valley counties from noon until 6PM Sunday afternoon. Please refer to the Fire Weather section for more information.

The next major pattern change up will take place near the middle of next week as a powering southwest jet launches up into the Central Plains. This feature will stir up conditions locally as well as bring a few precipitation chances to the area. The next chance of precipitation (15-30% chance) resides across our northeastern areas Tuesday night as a surface low is expected to slice across the Northern Plains.

A cold front passing sometime Wed/Thur will chop highs back to the 40s to low 50s through the end of the week. For now, we keep our eyes on the precipitation potential for Thursday into Friday (20-40% chances) as falling temperatures could reintroduce some snow to parts of the area. Any additional details regarding snow potential remains limited as this event is still beyond 5 days out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Light easterly winds will transition to the west by 06z. Winds will be out of the south to southwest by 18z then will be southerly by 00z. Wind gusts up to around 20 knots are possible around 21z. There is a slight chance (20% or less) of low ceilings beginning around 03z and continuing until around 09z. Fog is also possible from around 03z to 15z but confidence is not high enough to include at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Mostly sunny skies with dry and warm air advecting downslope winds will help move temperatures up into the mid to upper 60s for Sunday afternoon. In addition, subsiding air underneath a ridge moving in from the west, should also help boost temperatures (adiabatic warming). Dry air may mix down some during the day, leaving dewpoints in the mid 20s and 30s. Relative humidity values in the afternoon will drop to as low as 15-30% for locations along and north of Interstate 80 as well as locations south of the interstate and west of the Tri-Cities (60-70% confidence). The southwest winds will be expected to blow between 10-20MPH during the afternoon with gusts as high as 25-30MPH possible (40-50% chance). The strongest gusts will mainly be concentrated towards locations closer to the Nebraska Sandhills. Overall, Red Flag conditions Sunday afternoon are more on the marginal side of the spectrum as wind gusts only expected to just barely meet criteria.

The potentially gusty afternoon winds mixed with RH values as low as 15% will provoke critical fire weather conditions across a few northwestern portions of the area. Dawson, Furnas, Gosper, Sherman and Valley counties are included under a Red Flag Warning from noon until 6PM Sunday. These locations will have the best potential to see critical fire weather conditions (50-60% chance) with minimum relative humidity values as low as 15-20%. Near-critical fire weather conditions will remain possible across several locations outside of the warning and primarily north of I-80 as well as areas south of the interstate and west of the Tri-Cities (locations with the lowest expected RH values).

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are likely to return to the area Tuesday afternoon (50-80%). Our latest forecast projects southwest winds to blow between 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 30-35MPH across the full area. Min relative humidity values are likely to bottom out between 10-30% with the best potential for critical fire weather conditions across areas along and west of HWY- 281. Assuming that our forecast does not change much, given these dry and gusty conditions, the need for a fire weather product closer in time looks very likely.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Sunday for NEZ039-046- 060-072-082. KS...None.