textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to gradually push northward across the forecast area today...with the overall best chances across central and southern portions. Severe weather is not anticipated through tonight.

- The potential remains for an active pattern for the end of the work week and upcoming weekend. While not looking at a non- stop rain-out, there are chances for storms each day Fri-Sun. There will be increasing potential for a few strong to severe storms as we get into Sat-Sat night, and almost the entire area is included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area.

- For the start of the new work week...overall confidence in how the upper level pattern evolves and accompanying precipitation chances remain on the lower side. Still plenty of details for models to iron out through this weekend let alone early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Currently...

Isolated showers and storms have been gradually working their way north into extreme SSW portions of the forecast...a trend that will continue on through the remainder of the overnight hours. Looking aloft, definitely not a simple in place across the CONUS early this morning. Satellite and upper air data show a large area of low pressure spinning over roughly the northern half of the CA/NV border...while over the east, high pressure remains anchored off the coast of FL, with eastward shifting troughing digging into the north/mid-Atlantic coast. The pattern remains blocked, and across the central CONUS...we have a ridge axis extending from the SErn CONUS northwestward into the Dakotas, with shortwave troughing draped NW-SE roughly through KS/OK. At the surface, the pattern across the area is on the weaker side...resulting in light/variable to outright calm winds across the forecast area.

Today on through the weekend...

The pattern today will continue to be primarily driven by that northward-shifting upper level shortwave troughing. Models remain in good agreement showing the northward progress being pretty slow-going today...thanks to that ridging in place over the Dakotas that itself is slow to shift out of the way. Increasing precipitation chances will continue spreading north through the day...with models not in too bad of agreement showing the swath of activity remaining largely over our KS counties through the early morning hours, pushing north to roughly the I-80 corridor around midday, then points further north through the afternoon hours. While for some locations it'll be a pretty wet/dreary day, models show the potential for activity to be more scattered in nature at times...so precip may be more come and go for others.

Looking at the end of the week and weekend...the potential for an active pattern continues, keeping storms chances around each day. The upper level trough axis moving through today continues pushing north into the Nrn Plains...but additional shortwave disturbances look to be swinging through from SW-NE. Models, to varying degrees, show the large upper low currently over CA/NV making more of an eastward push inland...again very much slowed by the continued troughing over the East Coast and ridging sandwiched in between...the the rough placement over the weaker but still broad low looking to have shifted into the Nrn Rockies. Not looking at a non-stop rainout through the weekend...but models do have these waves of increased storm chances moving through each day...with the better chances looking to be focused during the late day-overnight hours.

For severe weather potential...models continue to show the overall threat for severe weather being on the lower side through Friday, instability and shear remain lacking today...though start to improve on Friday and again into Saturday. Dewpoints are forecast to climb into the mid-60s on Saturday, with models showing MUCAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg mainly over the central/southern portions of the area...with deeper layer shear around 30kts. Storms may be developing late in the day Fri-Sat over a sfc boundary that models have running roughly through western NE down into srn KS then push NNE...but confidence in where the exact placement ultimately ends up being is on the lower side, and what happens Fri-Fri night could impact the pattern for Saturday. Still plenty of things to iron out with models...but Saturday currently looks to be the next day with more potential for severe weather, and almost all of the forecast area is included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area. Think some strong storms are not out of the question for Friday.

First half of the new work week...

Main question for the start of the new work week remains with just how the upper level pattern ends up evolving...with models continuing to show stubborn troughing/low pressure near the East Coast keeping things clogged. The pattern over the central CONUS continues to be a battle between ridging trying to build north and low pressure/troughing over the Rockies/western CONUS potentially sending additional disturbances across the region. Confidence in the forecast is not high...and intermittent, generally low (20-40 percent) preciptiation chances remain in the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Short Term...Today through Thursday Night

Steady southeast winds this afternoon blowing between 10-15 MPH and gusting as high as 25 MPH with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s will become a familiar occurrence across the next several days. Similar returning conditions (highs mainly in the 80s with southeast winds) will come as a western U.S. upper-level cutoff low temporarily slows down the forward translation of a negative tilted intermountain west trough. This feature should lock the southeasterly winds in place across the area through quite possibly the first half of next week.

Meanwhile, a weak shortwave disturbance sliding up from the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle and western Kansas region today will gradually shimmer northward and into western Nebraska by Friday. A few scattered showers and non-severe storms in association with this disturbance will later be slung up into the area from the south across the next several days.

The first storms could arrive as early as this evening and overnight tonight for a few isolated northern Kansas and far southwestern Nebraska locations (20-50% chances, greatest to the southwest). Any activity tonight will be fairly spotty and isolated in coverage. More showers and storms should move into the the area Thursday bringing the full area up to a 20-60% precipitation chances with the highest confidence concentrated towards northern Kansas and southwest Nebraska locations. Shower/storm coverage is still expected to remain spotty to scattered through the day with likely off-and-on periods of wet and dry conditions (potentially more dry than wet periods). Any storm that does form will not be expected to become severe given little available conditional instability (<1,000J/kg of MUCAPE).

Both the HRRR and NAMNEST high-res models capture a overnight lull in precipitation Thursday night, though the latest 12z HRRR run is quicker to clear out the precipitation (afternoon timeframe). Either way, precipitation accumulations will mainly remain on the lighter side of the spectrum with most places likely receiving less than 0.25" (<0.1" north of I-80) of precipitation. The greatest precipitation (up to 0.5") should fall near and south of the state line.

Long Term...Friday and Beyond

Little change in the upper-level pattern over the weekend and early next week will continue to keep conditions fairly similar in terms of winds, temperatures and cloud coverage. Highs each day through next Wednesday will mainly stay between the upper 70s and 80s with mostly cloudy skies dominating a majority of the period. Surface winds will also be expected to remain out of the south or east with steady afternoon winds ranging mainly between 10-15MPH and occasionally gusting as high as 20-30MPH (gustiest winds to come Friday and Saturday afternoon).

In terms of precipitation potential, high uncertainty in when the upper-level flow will break out of its current stalled/blocking pattern will keep precipitation chances on question as for now. At least a weak PoP (20-30%+) returns daily with the possibility of afternoon pop-up showers and weak thunderstorms possible each day across the long term-forecast period. The best potential overall currently lies Friday night (25-60% chances), Saturday (40-70%) and Sunday (40-50%).

Cluster Analysis of the global ensemble models (GEFS/ENS/GEPS) around the Day-6 (Monday) period begins to show two diverging solutions between the ensemble clusters that could impact the forecast for next week. Currently, the leading solution (weighting more towards the GEFS members) shows a less amplified ridging pattern (longer lasting blocking flow). This pattern would favor less precipitation and more temperate (less extreme) temperature swings next week. The alternate (second leading) solution (wighted more towards the ENS members), shows a more amplified upper-level pattern and thus a quicker to unblock upper-level flow. This pattern would favor slightly more precipitation with more notable temperature swings next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Deteriorating conditions are expected through the daytime hours today, as an upper level disturbance brings expanding precipitation chances to the region. VFR conditions are in place early this morning, with light/variable winds, and the potential for MVFR or IFR conditions looks to move into the area around early afternoon...currently have 18Z starting a PROB30 group. There are some models that say that may be too early...that the better chances are closer to mid-late afternoon...so confidence in that timing is not overly high. Chances for precipitation will continue on through the end of this period...with greater potential for lowering ceilings with time. Winds will become east-southeasterly around mid-morning, with little change in that through the period. Speeds are mainly around 10-15 MPH, but a few gusts closer to 20 MPH are not out of the question this afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.