textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms from today through the weekend. Ongoing scattered thunderstorms will eventually subside later tonight. Another round is expected to develop Saturday morning and persist through the morning and early afternoon hours. Then another round Saturday evening as storms move in from the High Plains.

- Repeated rounds of thunderstorms bring a threat for flooding. A flood watch has been issued for much of the area east of Highway 183 Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

- Thunderstorms on Saturday evening and into the overnight hours will be strong to severe, SPC has an Enhanced risk for much of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This is an active forecast, primarily within the first 2-3 days. Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms were not well forecast, with some models hinting at it early today. However, as the day has evolved, models persist with this activity, but even with radar as an initial condition, high-res models are struggling with areal coverage. Confidence in the next 48 hours has evolved throughout the day today, but there remains uncertainty in how each round of convection will impact the next.

Current expectations for the evolution of the next 48 hours.

Round 1: Ongoing Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon are expected to eventually diminish and move east southeast tapering a bit by the evening hours for much of south central Nebraska. There is a signal of some off and on scattered storms persisting in north central Kansas into the evening and early overnight hours. The best instability remains off to the west of the area. This afternoon, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Later tonight, some marginally severe storms could develop with hail to the size of quarters.

Largely expect a lull in most of the activity during the overnight hours.

Round 2: This round is expected to begin just before sunrise on Saturday morning along or near the Highway 183 corridor. High-res Ensembles and even the EC Ensemble support this morning development. This activity will have slightly more instability to work with than Round 1 did. While widespread severe weather is not expected, some of the storms could be strong to severe. This activity will slowly move eastwards through out the day.

Expect a lull in activity after round 2 passes in the afternoon.

Round 3: This round is expected to develop in the High Plains of Nebraska and Kansas and track eastward aided by an upper disturbance. This activity continues to have the best ingredients to work with for the most part, and the primary concern for strong to severe thunderstorms. That being said, this round also may be impacted by the rounds before it, and that brings in some uncertainty. Round 2 may limit some of the ability for the atmosphere to recover along and north of I-80, and there has been subtle shifts in the guidance that is trending the primary severe threat along and south of the Nebraska/Kansas stateline. With round 3, the primary threat is wind as a line of storms develops to our west on the High Plains and tracks eastward into the evening and overnight hours. Severe winds up to 70 mph are possible. Hail up to golfball size is possible, but that best threat is along and west of Highway 183.

This third round has a lot of upper level support, and while the worst of the severe activity is along and south of the state line, severe storms are possible throughout the whole area. In addition to the strong storms, the repeated rounds of rain will increase the chance for flooding. Round 3 doesn't linger long, but various models and ensembles, indicate the potential for 2-3 inches of rain with some locally higher amounts possible. Have joined neighbors and issued a Flood Watch. Did not initially include Valley and Greeley Counties, but could see them being added in the next update.

Sunday: Additional Thunderstorms are possible Sunday, these could be strong to severe as well, but have focused primarily on today and Saturday for this forecast.

Workweek: The remainder of the forecast is active as the Central Plains sits under zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, allowing each weak disturbance to impact the region. Temperatures generally in the 70s for the week, which is below the 80+ degree normals we usually see in the second half of June.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across both terminals as of this issuance. Ceilings and visibility are VFR. This activity is expected off and on through the remainder of the afternoon before moving off to the southeast this evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning, model ensemble guidance this morning have been fairly consistent with the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning around or just west of KEAR before 12z and moving eastward impacting KGRI during the morning hours as well. Higher confidence (60-70%) of this occurring in the morning, led to the VCTS in both terminals for this 18z TAF cycle.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NEZ041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087. KS...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for KSZ007-019.