textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures will filter in across the local area today.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon and evening. This unsettled weather will favor areas generally along and south of a line from Phillipsburg, Kansas to Geneva, Nebraska, with a marginal risk for a few severe storms (confidence is low).

- Widespread showers and perhaps some weak thunderstorms will overtake the entire area Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level disturbance lifts northeast across the Central Plains. Precip amounts remain uncertain, but most locations will receive between between a quarter and three quarters of an inch of rainfall.

- The first frost of the season is possible Saturday morning, with widespread low temperatures in lower to middle 30s currently in the forecast.

UPDATE

Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Significantly cooler temperatures infiltrated the region overnight, with temperatures this morning ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s across the local area (or about 20 degrees below yesterdays readings). Plenty of low level stratus can be seen on satellite encroaching on the Tri-Cities area early this morning, although with this stratus mostly around 1000 feet or so above the surface, do not anticipate a foggy start, but rather just a cloudy and gloomy start across the region this morning.

For areas that remain cloud free this morning, clouds should continue to expand south and eastward through the daytime hours, resulting in mostly cloudy skies for everyone by afternoon. With the cold front pushing into central Kansas by early evening, confidence is waning in the convective potential across the local area this evening. 06Z HRRR keeps the area convection free this evening excluding a very small portion of Mitchell and Jewell counties, while the latest SPC outlook bringing general thunder well into south central Nebraska. Given this, felt plenty generous mentioning thunderstorm potential generally along and south of a line extending from Phillipsburg, Kansas to Geneva, Nebraska, but would not be shocked if our area was missed completely by convective activity this evening given the position of the front.

The much better chance for precip will come with the upper level low lifting out of the southwest Wednesday PM into Thursday. Global models have come into much better agreement bringing a progressive trough across central Plains Wednesday/Thursday, and thus confidence is growing in a fairly widespread wetting rainfall across the local area. Not surprisingly, ensembles have also come into better agreement supporting a 0.5-1" type rainfall event over the period. Given little to no instability over this time period, most of the precip should come in the form of light showers, with a very small potential for a few weak thunderstorms mainly south of interstate 80.

Finally, frosty temperatures are looking more and more likely Saturday morning, and pulled the trigger on adding frost to the forecast for Saturday morning with todays forecast package.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

As of 3PM, a cold front is currently bisecting CWA in roughly half from SW to NE. Behind the front, winds have turned to the north and temperatures are generally in the upper 60s to 70s. South of the front, it remains unseasonably hot in the 80s to lower 90s. Smith Center is even as high as 97F! Despite the proximity to the front, there's hardly a single cloud in the entire CWA.

Main item of concern in the short term is the potential for scattered showers and storms to develop across portions of north central Kansas this evening and overnight as a strengthening low level jet begins to interact with the elevated front. HRRR trends have been fairly consistent in this idea, however, HREF probabilities are only 20-30%. Probably looking at mainly a 6-hr window from 02Z to 08Z before the LLJ veers to the E and the front continues to progress deeper into KS.

For Tuesday, the vast majority of the CWA's sensible weather will be cloudy and cool with a chilly (esp. compared to today!) north breeze...but mainly dry. The exception could be across the far S/SE where convection may once again develop atop the elevated portion of the front. The surface cold front should lie well SE of the area by peak heating - generally along the I-35 corridor - such that the primary severe threat remains off to our SE. Can't completely rule out a few stronger cores taping into lingering elevated instability and strong effective deep layer shear, so SPC has continued to highlight far SE zones in a "Marginal Risk" (level 1 of 5) in their latest outlook.

To go along with the trend for a more southern placement of the surface cold front, have lowered highs across the board as persistent and stubborn low clouds and aforementioned cool Nrly breeze will make it quite difficult to warm up. Also likely some systematic bias-correction issues with the NBM (for high temperatures), as there often is during the transition months. Far N zones may struggle to warm out of the 50s, with mid 60s to mid 70s expected elsewhere (from N to S).

The main time frame for precipitation for the vast majority of the area will be Wednesday into Thursday. Expect a broad area of precip to gradually expand from SW to NE during the day on Wednesday, peak in coverage and intensity Wednesday night into Thursday AM, then gradually taper off from W to E Thursday afternoon and evening. Latest EPS 25-75th percentile QPF generally lies in the 0.25-0.75" range, though some higher members (including the deterministic run) have pockets of higher values in the 1-1.5" range. May have some convective elements/lightning work into portions of northern KS Wed-Wed night, but should be a mainly non-convective, steady rain for NE locations. Thursday AM will be quite wet, but should see a fairly quick downturn in coverage and intensity as we go through the afternoon and early evening hours. Blustery N wind Thu night should keep us from really bottoming out on temperatures and avoid frost for at least one more night.

Forecast dries back out for the end of the work week and into the weekend. Seasonably cool conditions continue into Friday and Saturday...current forecast highs for Friday are only in the mid 50s to low 60s. Our first frost (perhaps even a localized freeze?) of the season is becoming increasingly likely for Friday night into Saturday morning. Current NBM forecast has light winds, mostly clear skies, and temperatures dropping into the 30s area-wide. Some guidance is even colder in the 20s, which does not seem unreasonable for more cold-prone locations such as Dawson County northeastward towards Ord and Greeley.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR stratus can be seen on satellite just north of the terminals early this morning. While this stratus so far has evaded the terminals, expect it to continue to fill in over the next few hours and for MVFR CIGS near 1.5KFT to overtake both sites by around 13/10Z or so. This stratus will then hang around for much of the day, with CIGS lifting a bit towards afternoon, before once again lowering aft 14/02Z or so. Could see a bit of light drizzle towards daybreak, but confidence is not high, so did not include with the 1.5K CIGS. Any -SHRA or TSRA activity will likely not come until just after the valid period of the TAFs.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.