textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will be possible to start the day, especially for areas north of I-80 and east of Highway 281. A few of these could be strong to marginally severe. Hail to the size of quarters along with a few wind gusts to 60 MPH will both be possible.

- A few thunderstorms will also be possible late this afternoon and evening, especially across portions of north central Kansas. Again, hail to the size of quarters along with a few wind gusts to 60 MPH will both be possible.

- Heat index values near 100 to 105 degrees will be possible during the afternoon hours today through Tuesday, especially across areas south of I-80.

- Cooler and more unsettled weather returns to the local area for the middle and latter portion of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Confidence remains on the lower side on how things will develop across the local area today. While there is sufficient elevated instability to tap, the lack of a significant forcing mechanism increases the uncertainty on how things will develop. Models continue to develop a small area of thunderstorms across north central Nebraska later this morning - along the axis of the low level jet. While the better forcing is north of the local area, expect these storms to drift southeast as the weaken during the morning hours. Given the elevated instability, marginally severe hail will be the greatest concern, although again, they should be weakening as they cross the area and it is possible no severe storms will be realized. In fact, had to force thunderstorms into the forecast this morning as the predominant weather type being given by the models was just showers.

Later today, models try to bring a weak upper level disturbance from the west, clipping mainly our north central Kansas counties. This could also spark some thunderstorms late this afternoon or early evening, with marginally severe hail once again being the greatest concern. Other than the chance for thunderstorms, temperatures will continue to warm across the local area today, with heat index values likely exceeding 100 degrees across the southern half of the area. Given the fact we have had significant upper level haze (smoke) the past few days that has likely contributed to underachieving high temperatures, actually nudged down temps a couple of degree from the previous forecast for this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon.

Above normal temperatures along with limited thunderstorm coverage will then continue into early next week before the upper level pattern becomes more zonal and active, bringing cooler temperatures and a much better chance for unsettled weather late in the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

General Overview...

Broad ridging out west with troughing to the east leaves the area underneath northwest flow today. Across the next few days, the upper- level pattern will be expected to return back to a more zonal (less amplified) flow with occasional shortwave disturbance possible to pass through over the next week. Though a few scattered storms may pop up here and there over the weekend into early next week, the majority of the area should remain fairly dry with gradually increasing rain/storm chances across the middle to end of next week. As for temperatures, highs will gradually increase by a few degrees each day through Sunday before trending the other direction for a majority of next week.

Tonight and Saturday...

Though some areas of fog can't be completely ruled out across a few locations mainly south if I-80 tonight (20-50% chance), the coverage and intensity of any frog that develops should not be as widespread/intense as this past morning. The latest HREF guidance has 50% of its ensemble members projecting fog with only 20% of its members showing dense fog. In comparison of the HREF guidance 24- hours earlier (guidance for this past morning), 60% of its members had fog with 40% of them dense. As result to the decreased model confidence, we suspect that any fog that does manage to develop will not be as dense or widespread as from this past morning.

The even bigger question for Saturday morning will be the potential for a few storms to materialize out of the Nebraska sandhills region. Current high resolution forecast guidance has been in and out with the overall coverage of these storms, leading to lower than normal confidence for our PoPs (only up to 10-30%). The best chances for thunderstorm activity will generally be concentrated north of I-80 and east of HWY-281 between 7AM and 2PM.

Despite the uncertainty for storm coverage, the conditions would generally be supportive enough for severe weather for any given location that does see a thunderstorm. As a result, the SPC keeps a majority of the area (all of south central Nebraska and Philips, Smith and Jewell counties in north central Kansas) included in a Marginal severe weather outlook. Conditionally, some elevated CAPE (up to 3,000-4,000J/kg above 800mb) paired with a nocturnal low- level jet (25-40kts of bulk shear) should be supportive enough for helping a few of these storms become potentially strong to severe. Though hail up to the size of quarters may be possible within a few of the taler (generally stronger) storms, the main concern would be for gusty thunderstorm winds up to near 60MPH.

Beyond the chance for storms in the morning, a few isolated to scattered pop up storms can't be ruled out across the evening or nighttime hours as well. Highs for Saturday are expected to climb back to as high as the upper 80s and 90s for a majority of the area, though a few far southeast Nebraska and north central Kansas locations may reach the low 100s (20-50% chances). This warm up will carry on through the weekend as southerly winds help advect in a warmer and humid airmass.

Next Week...

Highs peaking Sunday (90-104 degrees; warmest towards the southwest) will be followed a multi-day cool down following the passage of a cold front Sunday night into Monday morning as well as the presence of increasing cloud coverage. NBM probabilities even show a 60-80% chance for highs to stay below 80 degrees Thursday for south central Nebraska and a 40-60% chance across north central Kansas. Though a heat advisory has not yet been considered for Sunday, heat indices will be expected to rise above 100 degrees across a majority of the area with a 30-70% of heat index values reaching/exceeding 105 degrees across portions of north central Kansas. If this trend continues, a heat advisory may be considered.

Besides the temperatures, a slightly wetter signal is beginning to appear next week as daily PoPs return across the entire area starting Monday night (20-30% chance). It is too early to fully analyze the nightly thunderstorm potential that will be mainly based around the specific timing for passing disturbances. That being said, sufficient moisture, a warm/buoyant airmass and the return of a nocturnal low- level jet, would all check the boxes needed for severe convection.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for most of the forecast period. The main caveat is the chance of thunderstorms Saturday morning, mainly between 14-20Z. Most model guidance suggests that this thunderstorm activity will remain north and east of KEAR and clipping KGRI, hence the inclusion of thunderstorms chances at KGRI and not KEAR. Uncertainty remains on the timing and location of these storms, as the latest HRRR runs (3/4Z) back off these thunderstorms all together. If these thunderstorms pass over the terminals, lower ceilings and rainfall may reduce visibilities to MVFR conditions.

With the possible thunderstorms in the area, cloud cover is expected to increase this morning before clearing out this evening. Winds will remain relatively light for the beginning portion of the forecast period, becoming more SE by the early afternoon. Winds will increase to around 15kts this afternoon, with gusts up to 25kts possible mainly between 18-0Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.