textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm again today.

- Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday (50-90% chance), especially during the evening hours. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging wind and large hail.

- Thunderstorms are expected redevelop for portions of the area on Thursday, although the coverage and intensity of storms is expected to be lesser than on Wednesday.

- There is a low chance for thunderstorms again on Friday, but drier conditions return for the weekend and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Today will be seasonably warm (highs in the low to mid 90s), with a steady south wind gusting as high as 20-30 MPH in the afternoon. Convection is expected to develop from eastern Colorado up into the Nebraska panhandle this afternoon, but this should fizzle out well to the west. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, thunderstorms become likely as a cold front pushes into the region. A few showers/storms could develop as early as mid afternoon, but the main threat for severe weather is expected to be in the evening hours. Exact convective evolution is still somewhat uncertain, but models seem to support the idea of one or more line segments moving through the area, promoting a threat for severe wind (and hail, to a lesser extent). As such, most of the area is now in a "Slight" severe risk (level 2 of 5).

The pattern remains largely stagnant on Thursday, although surface high pressure nudging in from the north will keep the highest t-storm chances in western and southern portions of the area. Remnant cloud cover and cooler temperatures will likely keep the severe threat lower than on Wednesday, but still a few strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out.

The surface front continues southward on Friday. Most of the area will likely remain dry, but a few thunderstorms could redevelop, mainly over southern parts of the area.

Beyond Friday, precipitation chances are pretty slim through at least the beginning of next week. A notable warmup is still on- tap for next week, but questions remain about the magnitude and duration of the heat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Quiet today with some afternoon cumulus, south to southeasterly winds a bit stronger than we've had the last couple days with temperatures climbing into the low 90s.

The primary points to talk about in this forecast are the Precipitation chances for mid and late week and the warm up for the end of the forecast.

The current ridge that is building in from the four corners region is not overly strong and a new disturbances are moving in from the central/northern Pacific coast and will break the ridge down. This will cause more quasi-zonal flow across the area, allowing for the disturbances moving across the northern Plains to impact us. The first and best chance for more widespread precipitation, including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is Wednesday afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. Thunderstorms are likely to develop along or near a front that will be pushed east by a disturbance over the Northern Plains. The Grand Ensemble (including GEFS/ENS/GEPS) indicates that at least 76% of the ensemble solutions have at least a trace at KGRI.

For Thursday, the best potential for thunderstorms actually exists to the west of the area, primarily out in the High Plains of the Nebraska Panhandle, then after development it is more likely to track southeast into western Kansas. The same Grand Ensemble for Thursday at KGRI only includes 42 % that have at least a trace at KGRI. Meanwhile, looking further west, Thursday night shows a 59% chance of Precip greater than a trace. This highlights the greater potential for precipitation west of the area. That doesn't mean it will necessarily be dry, but it's not as good of a chance as Wednesday.

Temperatures will be seasonal throughout the week. Highs in the low 90s ahead of the wave on Wednesday with Thursday and Friday briefly cooler (highs in the mid 80s).

Things change by the end of the weekend, as the overall upper pattern changes with a ridge building into the intermountain west. It will heat up for the week of July 13th. That being said, watching the trends of the ECMWF Ensemble over the past 48 hours, the trend has actually been decreasing...in terms of some of the crazy high temperatures (exceeding 100 degrees). Now don't take this to mean that it won't still be a heat wave/significant warm up, but it may not be as hot as some guidance suggested a couple days ago. Wednesday and Thursday July 15th-16th look to be some of the hottest days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry, VFR conditions are forecast throughout this TAF period. Fair weather cumulus clouds are developing across the area, as southerly surface winds gust to near 20kts this afternoon. This evening, winds will back off to around 9-11kts, although some wind gusts up to 20kts may linger through this evening/tonight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.