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KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will be working its way south through the area through the first half of the day...ushering in an abrupt switch to north-northeasterly winds. Gusts around 40-45 MPH will be possible.

- Ahead of the front/accompanying cooler air, southern areas will have the potential to reach into the 80s...and along with the gusty winds, will bring increased fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon-8PM today for areas along/south of the NE-KS state line.

- Notably cooler (near normal) highs expected for Friday in the low-mid 50s, before climbing back into the 80s by Sunday. There will be increased fire weather concerns each day Fri- Sun, the day with the overall greatest concern remains Saturday.

- Can't rule out some isolated-scattered preciptiation chances later today into tonight...but better chances look to hold off until early next week (Monday and on).

UPDATE

Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data showing that the pattern across the region has turned more zonal in nature...main area of high pressure along the US/Mex border dampened thanks to a series of disturbances crossing the the northern CONUS. Radar showing some scattered precipitation out across western portions of NE early this morning...things have been quiet across the forecast area. At the surface, winds remain generally southerly with speeds around 10 MPH...the main feature of interest being the strong cold front still off to our north, which will continue pushing south through the rest of the overnight hours.

Today through Friday...

Overall, no notable changes were made to the forecast. Models still in pretty good agreement showing that for most locations, it will remain a dry period. Later today into tonight, models are still showing the potential for some isolated-scattered precipitation to sink south through the region with the passage of a mid-level disturbance. Not overly excited about these chances...models favor locations to our east with better lift, and there is plenty of drier air in the lower levels to overcome. Forecast chances remain low around 20 percent...and what precipitation does happen to develop doesn't look to produce more than a few hundredths. Upper level flow turns back more northwesterly for Friday in the wake of today's system.

For today, the main forecast concern lies with the stronger winds and fire weather potential. Not a lot of change with the timing of the cold front, which looks to push through all but far SSE areas by late morning-midday. The stronger north- northeasterly winds will continue on through the afternoon hours...gusts near 40-45 MPH will be possible. The daytime passage of the front makes for a tricky temperature forecast...confidence is better across the south reaching into the 80s before the cooler air works its way in...central and northern areas will likely see temps fairly steady if not falling through the afternoon hours. Current forecast highs range from the low-mid 60s in the far north, roughly low 70s in central areas, to low-mid 80s in the far southeast.

Winds will gradually diminish overnight tonight...but there will be the potential for breezy conditions into at decent chunk of the day on Friday until the main sfc high sinks far enough to relax the pressure gradient. Notably cooler highs still forecast for Friday, in the low-mid 50s (not far from normal for this time of year).

Fire weather concerns remain for both today and Friday, especially for today due to the stronger winds. See the Fire Weather section below for more.

This weekend...

Forecast for the upcoming weekend remains dry, with models continuing to show upper level ridging trying to build back north through the Rockies/Plains...just not looking to be an overly strong push. A warmer airmass will also be building back in...allowing for highs on Saturday to rebound back into the 60s, and even warmer on Sunday into the 80s.

Gusty conditions are expected to develop across the region on Saturday, making this the next upcoming day with increased fire weather concerns. The sfc pressure gradient is expected to tighten up across the region ahead of deepening low pressure over the High Plains...increasing southerly winds and bringing the potential for gusts exceeding 35 MPH. Lighter winds, turning more WSW ahead of a sfc frontal boundary, are expected on Sunday. See the Fire Weather section below for more.

New work week...

Models showing the potential for the new work week to transition to a potentially more active zonal/southwesterly pattern across the region...bringing more, very welcomed precipitation chances. Still plenty of uncertainties and details to work out in models as far as timing and track of any disturbances moving through...but it's nice to see some better precip chances back in the forecast. Highs for Mon-Sun stay in the 70s-80s, potentially much cooler by Thursday in the 40s-50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

This afternoon, deep mixing in the west-northwesterly surface flow has resulted in another day of record-breaking high temperatures. Many areas will top 90 degrees by late afternoon.

Winds should fall of pretty quickly this evening before turning back to the south. Steady south wind will keep overnight temperatures well above normal as well. In fact, our Thursday morning temperatures (50s to near 60) are very close to our normal HIGH temperatures for late March.

The cold front for Thursday has trended a touch slower, which means that southeastern areas could make a run into the 80s and possibly near 90 before the front moves through. This also heightens the fire weather threat, and therefore a Fire Weather Watch was issued for southeastern parts of the area. The front is expected to move through between 9am in the north and 3pm in far southern portions of the area. Behind the front, stiff north winds will increase, with gusts likely around 40 MPH.

Some sprinkles are possible near and behind the front during the day Thursday, but the chance for anything measurable is very low. A few additional showers are possible as the upper level trough moves through Thursday night into Friday morning, but most locations will likely miss out on this as well. More widespread rain chances will remain well to our south with the cold front.

North winds will decrease a bit on Friday, but will still remain somewhat breezy, especially in the morning. Friday high temperatures are expected to be in the 50s...which is actually just a few degrees below climatological normals.

The pattern flips back to warm this weekend and into the early part of next week. Breezy south winds return on Saturday, aiding temperatures back into the 60s, and widespread 80s are expected Sunday through Tuesday. The next meaningful chance for rain will be Tuesday into Wednesday (March 31 into April 1).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Steady south winds with Marginal LLWS will continue for the next couple of hours as the VWP is indicating 40-45 KTS of wind about 1 KFT off the surface as of 26/05Z. This WS will diminish towards daybreak as winds relax ahead of a cold front that should reach the terminals around 26/15Z or so. Very strong north winds can be expected behind this front...with gusts to around 35KTS possible into the early evening hours...with surface winds likely remaining elevated through the overnight hours near 20 KTS Thursday night. While there will be some passing high clouds through the period, could see some BKN mid level CIGS near 8 KFT spread across the area aft 27/02Z with a very small chance of a light shower or sprinkle.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Today...

Main story for today remains with the passage of a strong cold front, which is expected to push through the entire forecast area by early afternoon. This front will be ushering in an abrupt switch to north-northeasterly winds for the day...gusts around 40-45 MPH are not out of the question. Expecting quite a range in high temperatures today because of that boundary...with southern areas having the potential to reach into the 80s. Those areas, mainly along/south of the NE-KS state line, will have the potential for near-critical to critical fire weather conditions to develop...and a Red Flag Warning has been issued from noon-8PM. A quicker passage of the front may result in relative humidity values not technically dropping to/below critical levels (20 percent)...but values in the low-mid 20 percent are forecast, and there is no question that the winds will be a concern.

Friday....

Though notably cooler with highs 'only' in the low-mid 50s (so near normal), it's also a significantly drier airmass building into the area...with dewpoints during the day on Friday in the single digits to mid teens. Widespread relative humidity values in the 15-20 percent range are forecast through the afternoon hours...main question lies with winds. Breezy north- northeasterly winds continue at least through the first half of the day...but speeds will be gradually diminishing through the afternoon as surface high pressure settles further south into the area. Expecting widespread near- critical conditions...critical conditions will be dependent on the timing of the diminishing winds vs lowering relative humidity.

Saturday....

Gusty southerly winds develop area-wide ahead of deepening sfc low pressure to our west...gusts exceeding 35 MPH will be possible. The increased southerly flow brings warmer air back into the area, with highs back in the 60s. Moisture will also be increasing, but models show dewpoints only climbing back into the teens-20s...resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the 15-25 percent range. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are forecast area-wide.

Start of the new week...

Warmer temperatures back in the 70s-80s are forecast Sunday- Tuesday...but at this point not looking at notable winds through this period. Expecting increasing dewpoints, especially across central-eastern areas, helping with fire weather concerns...but at least spotty near-critical conditions will be possible.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ084>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.