textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous/extreme heat and humidity again today, then perhaps less extreme, but still dangerous, on Monday.

- There is a low chance of storms (around 20%) this evening for areas mainly north and west of the Tri-Cities. A strong to marginally-severe storm cannot be ruled out...main threat is wind gusts up to 60 MPH. - A somewhat better chance for at least scattered storms arrives mainly Monday afternoon-overnight...again a strong to marginally-severe storm is possible, especially in our west.

- Closer to normal high temperatures (upper 80s to mid 90s) are expected Tuesday through Friday with various, intermittent rain and storm chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Main story in the short term will be the continued hot and very humid conditions through at least today and tonight. Both temperatures and dew points overachieved significantly from what most model guidance indicated on Saturday. Absent significant change in pattern/airmass...and an even warmer start to the day...see little to no reason why peak afternoon heat indices can't again top out in the 105-115F range for many hours (6+) amidst peak evapotranspiration. To put Saturday's heat/humidity into perspective...it's the first time since 2001 that Grand Island reached a peak heat index of 115F, or higher! It was quite anomalous and a "top 1%" type of day, which is all the more dangerous given we're basically at the climatological peak combination of heat and humidity. The Heat Advisory was upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning last evening...and with heat effects being accumulative and more weekend activities this upgrade is very much on track.

Some of the recent CAM guidance develops isolated to widely scattered showers and storms along a weak surface trough and moisture gradient late this afternoon - generally over the Sandhills region. This activity would then favor to drift E and/or SE into W/NW portions of the forecast area this evening. SPC places portions of south central Nebraska in a Marginal to Slight risk for severe weather with this activity. The main severe threat will be damaging wind gusts around 60 MPH, and the main threat window looks to be between 6-10PM.

The upper ridge breaks down slightly and nudges southward on Monday, leaving some uncertainty on peak heat index potential. One one hand - could see a plethora of weak disturbances toping the crest of the ridge leading to at least more cloud cover than recent days, if not actual scattered showers/storms. On the other hand, if the clouds are intermittent and the rain is meager or doesn't pan out...then one could make the argument for continuing the Excessive Heat Warning yet another day because of accumulative impacts. Have some time to assess model trends before needing to make that call, and at the minimum, a Heat Advisory is still in effect for Monday.

A cold front will move into the area Monday evening, if it hasn't already done so earlier, and lead to somewhat better chances for scattered showers and storms to develop over the local area, and/or move in from the W off the High Plains. These chances will continue into Monday night and should lead to a "cool down" for Tuesday - which is basically just back down closer to normal levels for mid to late July.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

An upper level ridge extends from Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas northward to Kansas and Nebraska. Winds across north central Kansas and south central and central Nebraska are mostly light and variable. Winds are lighter than expected but may increase some out of the south later this afternoon. Low-level moisture is hanging around the area longer than expected today (with very little wind to mix in drier air) with dewpoints mostly in the 70s and 80s. High temperatures today are expected to reach the mid 90s to low triple digits. These conditions have resulted in heat index values across the area generally ranging from around 105 to near 120 degrees! A Heat Advisory is in effect for the whole area and continues into Monday evening. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the 70s with dewpoint temperatures in the 60s and 70s. There is some concern that dewpoint temperatures will be higher than what is currently in the forecast, especially if drier air doesn't move into the area. This may lead to fog development as temperatures cool. Winds will be fairly light (mainly between 5 to 10 MPH but may be closer to 5 MPH) out of the south. These overnight conditions will result in limited relief from the heat. If moisture is higher than expected tonight, overnight lows may also be higher than what is in the forecast.

The upper ridge will be more centered over the region on Sunday. Winds will be a little stronger than the previous day Sunday afternoon (southerly around 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to around 25 MPH). Sunny to partly cloudy skies will be present. Temperatures Sunday afternoon are expected to heat up to the mid/upper 90s to around 105 degrees. The amount of moisture that will be present for Sunday is still somewhat uncertain with the models not in agreement. Based on the moisture hanging around longer than expected today, tend to think that moisture values will be on the higher end. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be slightly hotter than today. An Extreme Heat Warning may be needed for Sunday. Low temperatures for Sunday night will likely be slightly warmer than the previous night with some isolated areas in north central Kansas perhaps with lows around 80 degrees. There is a very slight (15% to near 20% chance) of showers and storms Sunday evening across northern portions of the area (mainly north of I-80). There is some model disagreement on where these storms will occur but the main risk with these storms will be wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

Monday has the potential to be the hottest day but there is also a lot of uncertainty with regards to temperature and moisture. Generally expecting high temperatures to range from 97 to 103 degrees. Some of the hotter models have temperatures ranging from around 105 to 110+ degrees! Tend to think these hotter temperatures are not likely with a weak cold front with easterly winds expected to begin moving into the area on Monday. The Heat Advisory ends at 10 PM Monday evening. Beginning Monday evening and continuing into Friday, there are various chances of showers and storms across portions of the area as shortwaves troughs move overhead. High temperatures will be cooler beginning Tuesday with the arrival of a cold front.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: VFR with steady southerly winds 7-14kt, with some gusts around 20kt this afternoon.

Tonight: There's a slight chance that some showers and/or weakening storms could move into the terminals during the late evening hours...from around 01Z to 04Z. This activity should be weakening, so confidence is not high enough to formally include at this time. Also monitoring the potential for some low level wind shear, but 6-8kt sfc wind beneath a 35kt low level jet leaves this too marginal to include at this time, either.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-017>019.