textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered non-severe storms will track northeast across the area early this morning and will for the most part exit the area by 8 AM. Small hail up to dime size could be possible with a few of the stronger storms.

- Dense fog will develop behind the showers and spread northeast through the early morning hours. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 11 AM for Nebraska counties along the Kansas border into north central Kansas. This advisory may need to be expanded further north possibly into the Tri-Cities.

- Isolated (20-30%) showers and thunderstorms may redevelop Saturday afternoon/evening with a few severe thunderstorms possible (Marginal Risk).

- Temperatures will warm back into the 70s and 80s Saturday through Thursday before cooling down Friday into next weekend.

- Generally small off and on chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms somewhere over our forecast area most days except Monday into Tuesday morning which appear dry.

UPDATE

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Tonight... Most areas will see at least drizzle and periods of rain overnight with a few isolated thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are generally not expected to be severe, but could still produce some pea to penny sized hail. MUCAPE values max out around 500-1250 J/KG across our southeastern zones with 0-6 KM shear values as high as 30 kts. These will mainly be elevated thunderstorms with some hail at times. Can not rule out a few quarter sized hail reports, storms will be up and down (pulse) in nature.

Dense fog was already expanding northeast across central Kansas at 1130 PM and will continue to expand into our forecast area as the rain departs from southwest to northeast. Felt confident enough to issue a Dense Fog Advisory across our southern zones from the southern most tier of our Nebraska counties into north central Kansas. Believe that this fog advisory may need to be expanded further north late tonight and could also impact the Tri-Cities through much of Saturday morning.

Saturday... Most areas will start off the day cool, foggy, and damp with perhaps a little light drizzle. The fog will lift first across southern zones by late morning, but may linger until early afternoon in the Tri-Cities. Eventually the fog will clear out everywhere by afternoon and then we will see a quick late afternoon temperature jump into the 70s.

We will see afternoon destabilization with the late day heating allowing SBCAPE values to climb into the 1500-2000 J/KG range first across north central Kansas and then lifting north into southern Nebraska. There is also sufficient shear for a few isolated supercells (0-1km shear around 30 kts). Severe hail will be the main threat (ping pong ball), but can also not rule out a tornado if we get an isolated supercell that can tap into that favorable environment. Forcing is rather weak and thus there is the question of if we will even get thunderstorms, but am leaning towards a few isolated storms, just not widespread. Most likely time frame for thunderstorm redevelopment will be between 4 PM and sunset.

Sunday... Lowered NBM rain chances and kept the rain chances confined to our southeastern zones. Low probability of thunderstorms, but if we do see thunderstorms there will be sufficient instability and shear for an isolated afternoon severe threat. More sunshine on Sunday along with another day of southerly winds will help to warm most areas up to around 80 for highs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Tonight/Saturday...

Colder air today filling in behind yesterday's cold frontal passage continues to stick around for one more day with temperatures in the 50s and dropping only down to the 40s overnight tonight. A broad 1028mb surface high pressure center passing off to the northeast will help bend the steady 10-15MPH easterly/northeasterly winds gusting up to 20-25MPH to the southeast tonight and to a southerly direction for Saturday.

Though there is a 40-65% chance for (non-severe) thunderstorms tonight, the overall coverage of meaningful precipitation amounts will likely not spread more than 0.1-0.5" of rainfall across 1/2 to 2/3rds of the area. Storm development tonight will be dependent on the presence of a low-level jet tonight. The best timeframe for storm activity will be between 11PM to 6AM. Though the chance for severe storms remain unlikely based on the limited MU CAPE (500- 1,000J), low-to-mid level lapse rates of 6-8 C/km with a modest 25- 40kts of bulk shear could still support a few stronger storms that may produce small hail up to the size of pennies. Developing fog behind the storms overnight will also be possible as light to steady upslope flow mixes dewpoints close to their saturation point. Visibilities may fall to as low as 1 mile with a handful of locations potentially seeing visibilities drop below one mile at times across the morning hours.

Gustier conditions Saturday from southerly winds blowing between 20 to 25 MPH and gusting as high as 30-35MPH, will be paired with even warmer temperatures. Though the cloud coverage is expected to maintain through the day, the warm air advecting winds will assist in helping bump highs back up into the 70s.

At the surface, a low materializing across the Northern Rockies will center the Central Plains under its warm sector side. Aloft, a weak shortwave trough will bring by some mid-level vorticity advection, increasing vertical instability (500-1,500 of MU CAPE). Though storms will not be a guarantee (20-50% chance for more isolated activity), the conditions would still be favorable to help give any storm that does pop up potentially some strong to severe characteristics (hail up to the size of quarters or wind gusts near 60 MPH). As result, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather covers the full area.

Sunday and Beyond...

Upper-level troughing out west will creep closer to the Central U.S. across the beginning of next week. This slow moving feature will set up a wave train of shortwave disturbances that will pass overtop of the area mainly between Saturday and Wednesday. As result from this feature, precipitation chances will return to the area Sunday (10- 30%), Tuesday (20-40%) and Wednesday (20-30%).

Storm chances Sunday will be concentrated towards far eastern to southeastern portions of areas (mainly areas east of wherever the dryline sets up that afternoon). A few storms that develop may potentially become strong to severe (Marginal severe weather outlook for locations mainly east of HWY-281). Another potential for scattered storms could come Tuesday evening into Wednesday, although a lot of uncertainty still remains for this particular event.

Model solutions between the GFS and ECMWF (long range global deterministic models) begin to diverge Tuesday as another surface cyclone is expected to develop across the Central U.S. Uncertainty with the system's track, timing and frontal placements will ultimately determine when and where storms may end up develop.

Otherwise, the continuation of southerly winds each day through Thursday (besides Wednesday) will help highs maintain in the mid 70s to 80s through much of the week. Near-critical fire weather conditions look to return to at least a portion of the area each afternoon Sunday through next Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR and LIFR ceilings expected to persist through the morning hours, improving in the afternoon.

LIFR stratus currently impacting KEAR/KGRI will linger over the terminals through the rest of the morning hours. Within this stratus deck, patchy fog is possible at times, reducing visibility to IFR (2 miles). Dense fog is looking less likely, given upstream obs largely remaining 1 1/2 miles or better and increasing wind speeds later this morning. The stratus deck will lift north of the area during the early-mid afternoon hours, though the exact timing of this change is uncertain. Regardless, by the late afternoon hours, VFR conditions are forecast which persists through the end of the TAF period.

Southerly winds increase during the late morning hours, with sustained winds around 20kts, and gusts around 30kts throughout the afternoon hours. After sunset, LLWS is forecast to develop as surface winds begin to decrease and the Low Level Jet strengthens. LLWS is favored to weaken by the end of the TAF period as stronger winds move off to the east.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ082>087. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007- 017>019.