textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and mainly weak thunderstorms will define much of our forecast area between now and Wed AM, before we see somewhat of a more solid "dry break" centered on Wednesday afternoon-evening.

- High temperatures will be on a gradual climb over the next several days...only 60s/70s today...then mainly 70s Wed...then mainly 80s Thurs-Fri (Friday has really trended warmer over the last few days...with even low 90s now expected into some of our far southern/southwest counties). - Various/intermittent rain and thunderstorm chances continue later this week into at least the first part of the weekend...before a somewhat-consistently-drier signal is currently expected around Sunday-Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Currently...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to work their way across the area...a trend that will continue on through the rest of the overnight hours. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite showing continued southwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains...set up between an area of high pressure anchored over the SErn CONUS/eastern Gulf Coast, and an area of low pressure making its way along the ND/MN/Canada border. The accompanying surface cold front continues to gradually sink south through the region, roughly halfway through the forecast area...it hasn't been an overly quick passage with the better upper push being well off to our north. This scattered activity being driven by the southward sinking sfc front, as well as convergence along the northern edge of another hefty low- level jet. Additional activity can be seen a bit further north across western/north central NE, closer to frontal forcing closer to 850mb. Can't rule out some storms the rest of tonight being on the strong side with some gusty winds, small hail and heavy rainfall rates...but the overall threat for severe storms is on the lower side.

Today and tonight...

That surface cold front continues sinking south through the early morning hours...with models showing it finally clearing our forecast area to the south around 13-15Z. The biggest change folks will notice for today is the much cooler temperatures. Expecting to be sitting under plenty of cloud cover through the day...with winds remaining northeasterly in the wake of that cold front. Following highs on Monday ranging from the mid-upper 80s in the north to near 100 in the south...forecast highs for today looking to struggle to even get to 70 degrees for a good chunk of the area (mainly central portions). As far as precipitation chances go...with models keeping at least subtle mid-upper level lift around, chances for showers/storms lingering throughout the day...mainly across central and southern portions of the forecast area. Models are in good agreement showing the better instability also sinking south with the surface front...focusing the better potential for severe weather just off to the south of our forecast area.

This evening through tonight, some models show better potential for showers/storms spreading back further north with time...but the better overall chances should remain focused across the southern half of the area.

Wednesday on...

Overall there hasn't been any significant changes to the forecast for mid-week on through the weekend. Models continue to show the potential for an unsettled pattern across the region. Upper level high pressure looks to remain over SErn portions of the CONUS to start the period...eventually shifting back west onto eastern portions of the Srn Plains later in the week. Satellite imagery showing that while the main upper level disturbance currently sits over the ND/MN/Can border, another disturbance is working its way south into the Pac NW. Models show this disturbance continuing to dig south along the West Coast, deepening into a better organized low with time. This troughing along with the high off to our SSE will drive the continued southwesterly flow aloft across the region...with models showing this system not really making a better push east through the Rockies until this weekend (though vary some on how organized or open of a system it is when is moves through). Periodic shortwave disturbances out ahead of this western CONUS troughing will keep chances for showers/storms around each day through the weekend...mainly focused during the evening/overnight hours. As far as temperatures go...again no notable chances, with highs rebounding back into the 70s for Wednesday. Highs the rest of the week climb well into the 80s-near 90 by Friday, with more 70s back for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight...

A developing low is centered near the NE-SD border. An associated warm front is lifting north across the area, currently located roughly along a line from Grand Island to Geneva. A cold front is soon to move into northwestern portions of the area currently located just west of a line from Thedford- North Platte-McCook. In the warm sector of this low (between warm and cold fronts) breezy southerly winds are helping to advect warm moist air into the area. Temperatures in the warm sector are in the 80s and 90s, warmest across north central Kansas. Elevated showers/weak storms are ongoing across the area but overall remain fairly brief/light.

As the cold front continues to push across the area, storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front during the late afternoon-early evening hours. CAPE values of 2000+J/Kg combined with 35kts of shear would support strong-severe thunderstorms. Initial storm development is favored to be discrete which supports a supercellular storm mode. Discrete/Supercellular storms would carry a potential for all hazards (Large hail, damaging wind gusts, isolated tornado). While an isolated tornado can't be ruled out along/east of Highway 81 the best chances look to be just east of the forecast area, closest to the warm front, where surface winds maintain a more due southerly direction. Over time, storms will become more widespread along the front forming into a cluster/line of storms. As storms form into a cluster/line later this evening, hail/tornado threat lessens, with the primary concern becoming damaging wind gusts (gusts to 60-70mph). Strong-severe storms exit the area around midnight. Behind the front, scattered non-severe showers/storms are expected to persist throughout the overnight hours. The steadiest rain overnight will be along and just north of the front as it continues to slide southeast, exiting the area around sunrise on Tuesday.

Tuesday...

Lingering showers/storms continue across southeastern portions of the area on Tuesday. Cooler weather is expected on Tuesday with highs in the 70s and the coldest temperatures across SE portions of the area where cloud coverage is the most persistent. More widespread showers/storms develop during the afternoon hours. With the front located across central/southern KS, PoPs should be limited to mainly SE portions of the forecast area. PoP chances and coverage increase further Tuesday night as the LLJ results in scattered-widespread storms across the area though severe storms look unlikely at this time.

Wednesday...

The stalled front across Kansas begins to lift back north on Wednesday ahead of the next passing upper level disturbance. Highs will be in the 70s across Nebraska and in the low-mid 80s across north central Kansas (warmest along/south of the front). Dry weather is favored during the daytime hours, with rain chances returning to northwestern portions of the area during the overnight hours.

Thursday Onwards...

Southwesterly flow-weak ridging builds over the area Thursday and Friday with temperatures climbing into the 80s and 90s. As a series of disturbances traverse this flow aloft, it will bring continued off and on chances for precipitation each day mainly during the evening-overnight hours. Cooler weather returns this weekend as the aforementioned disturbances flatten and push the ridge east of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the area this morning...gradually making their way off to the ENE. Have a mention going in the TAFs for the first few hours of this period, then models show a relative lull before chances pick back up this afternoon. Kept mention this afternoon as PROB30, there are still uncertainties with just exactly where things will develop. Potential for at least scattered activity continues through a good chunk of the evening/overnight hours...again kept things at PROB30 with some lingering uncertainty. The surface cold front has pushed south of the terminal areas...expecting gusty northeasterly winds through the morning. Speeds taper off some this afternoon on, turning a bit more easterly with time, especially tonight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.