textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- We remain in a very active...but tricky-to-forecast rain/thunderstorm chances pattern, with at least some portion of our forecast area (CWA) carrying at least a small chance of rain/storms nearly every day and night due to a seemingly non-stop parade of mainly low-amplitude upper waves pushing in from the west. - Each of the next three days (Wed-Fri) will carry at least some threat for severe storms. Today and Thursday, much of our CWA is under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for at least a few strong to marginally-severe storms, while Friday (albeit a few days out and of lower confidence) now looks to carry a conditional threat for perhaps a few more intense storms...with SPC introducing a Slight Risk (level 2) to roughly half of our CWA.

- Thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend, but currently look to carry sparser coverage and a lower risk for severe compared to these next three days.

- In addition to a severe storm threat, especially this evening through Friday night will carry a continued threat for at least isolated/localized flooding (as evidenced by WPC Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall). So far over the last ~ 4 days we've been fairly fortunate in "spreading rain around" pretty well in moderate doses, but we've also seen a few localized bullseyes of at least 2- 4" that fell too fast and caused mainly minor flooding...and suspect that we'll see a few more of these over the coming days.

- Temperature-wise: Overall a very persistent/consistent stretch of slightly above normal warmth continues. Highs on most of the next 7 days mainly in the 80s (occasional low 90s mainly south/west)...and overnight lows mainly low-mid 60s.

UPDATE

Issued at 513 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Some up-front honesty: This forecaster was about to send a typical longer/more detailed discussion a bit ago, but made the rare mistake of not hitting the "save" button and it ended up going into the "great abyss". Alas, in the interest of time, here is a more abbreviated version mostly in "bullet point" format:

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS: Although still three days away and of some definite uncertainty, cannot argue with SPC introducing a Slight Risk to roughly half of our CWA on the latest Day 3 outlook for Friday. Given a fairly potent combination of 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE/instability and perhaps at least 35-40KT of deep layer shear, a few intense supercells with at least a large/very large hail threat could develop. These storms could focus within a fairly narrow swath of the CWA however wherever a surface boundary sets up (yet to be refined).

-- SOLELY FOCUSING ON THESE NEXT 48 HOURS (again, in brief): -- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER: - An overall-drier night than expected, as we remained south of a northern NE storm complex and north-northeast of spotty showers/a few weak storms over central/western KS.

-- TODAY (through around 7 PM): - Kept any morning slight rain/thunderstorm chances to only far northern/southwestern parts of our CWA. - MOST of the afternoon should remain dry as well, but with 1000-2000 J/kg of weakly-capped instability building, cannot totally rule out a rogue, slow-moving storm almost anywhere so have slight (20% chances entire CWA. - High temps mainly 82-85 degrees...somewhat breezy south- southeast winds sustained 15-20 MPH/gusts 20-25 MPH.

-- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (mainly after 7 PM): - Chances for at least isolated/scattered storms increase as lift increases from an upper wave approaching from the south- southwest. - Overall-most widespread rain chances probably favoring the northern 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA especially if a larger-scale complex/cluster heads due east out of western NE - Cannot rule out a few strong to marginally severe storms...main threats 50-60 MPH winds (especially along leading edge of outflow from a storm complex) and mainly smaller hail perhaps up to around nickel size. - Spotty pockets of at least 1-2" of rain in a short time and localized flooding possible. - Low temps mainly low 60s.

-- THURSDAY DAYTIME (through around 7 PM): - Opposite of most recent setups, the DAYTIME hours here likely carry higher storm chances than the evening-overnight will, as the upper wave that gets storms going tonight slowly traverses our area from west-to-east during the day Thursday. - Any morning storms mainly weak...but as at least 1500-2500 J/kg instability builds in the afternoon and deep-layer shear increases to around 30KT, especially the eastern half of our CWA (counties along/east of Hwy 281) could see a round of scattered strong to severe storms with a hail/damaging wind/localized flooding threat. - Later SPC outlooks may need to consider expanding Marginal Risk down into at least eastern parts of our KS zones and perhaps removing risk from our western counties if these trends hold. - High temps very similar to today...mainly 82-86.

-- THURSDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: - While storms (possibly marginally-severe?) could still be ongoing early in the evening mainly in our far eastern counties, the departure of the upper wave to our east likely results in a dry/mostly dry later evening-overnight. - Low temps very similar to tonight...mainly low 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

An upper low/trough is over southern Canada, northern Rocky Mountains, and northern Plains. Another upper low/shortwave trough is over south central Kansas. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are mostly out of the southeast. High temperatures today will generally range from the mid 70s to low/mid 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions of the area and are expected to continue until around 10 PM. The most likely area for storm development will be along and east of a line from Kearney to Smith Center. Some strong storms have developed but severe storms are not expected with fairly low lapse rates and wind shear. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to low/mid 60s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into portions of the area from the southwest tonight mainly impacting areas southwest of the Tri-Cities.

Winds will mostly be out of the south to southeast on Wednesday with high temperatures mainly in the low to mid 80s. Storms may again develop on Wednesday across portions of the area as shortwaves move over the area. Surface CAPE values of around 2,500 to near 3,500 J/kg are expected on Wednesday. Wind shear will be a little higher Wednesday than today with values of around 25 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse rates will be between 5.5 and around 7 degrees C/km. The highest values of all the above mentioned parameters will generally be across the western half of the forecast area. Areas generally along and west of Highway 281 are in a marginal risk of severe weather per the Storm Prediction Center Day 2 outlook. Any severe development is mainly expected during the evening and early overnight hours. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar or a few degrees warmer than the previous night.

An upper trough will move over the area Thursday with more showers and thunderstorms expected to develop. Severe weather parameters are expected to be less than the previous day so widespread severe weather is not expected. Cannot out rule an isolated strong to severe storm or two. High temperatures on Thursday will generally be similar to the previous couple of days. Low temperatures Thursday night will generally range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend beginning on Friday with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Various chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue to be present Friday through Monday as troughs pass over/near the area. At this time, severe weather potential is unknown but will continue to monitor as time gets closer.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 652 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): Although there are some uncertainties lurking in the details, prevailing VFR ceiling/visibility is expected through most of the period, along with rain/thunderstorm-free conditions through at least these first 12 hours. That being said, it is now looking likely that at least intermittent MVFR ceiling will occur this morning a As for winds (and not accounting for any possible convective outflow influences), things seem fairly straightforward, with a southeasterly to southerly direction prevailing throughout. Sustained speeds through most of the period should prevail at-or-below 12KT, with the overall- strongest breezes focused 16-01Z with sustained speeds roughly 15KT/gusts 20-25KT.

- Ceiling uncertainties and MVFR potential: It turns out that some of the model trends mentioned in 06Z discussion were onto something, as at least patches of MVFR stratus have developed across the area and will likely persist through at least this morning. Have introduced TEMPO groups focused 13-17Z to account for this, as this will probably not be a truly prevailing feature. Additional MVFR is possible very late in the period early Thurs AM but could be disrupted by convection, so have kept ceilings VFR.

- Shower/thunderstorm uncertainty: We remain in a weather pattern that breeds lower-than-usual confidence in the details of convection...including likelihood/placement/intensity. There is a low probability (20%) that spotty convection could develop in the general area during heating of the mid-late afternoon, but this is considered too low of a probability for TAF inclusion. The more likely scenario is for a cluster or complex of showers/thunderstorms to move in from the west-southwest anytime after 00-01Z as increasing upper lift arrives. Considered going with TEMPO groups for some of this, but with it still just beyond the first 12 hours opted to maintain several hours of PROB30. IF any storms do impact KGRI/KEAR, severe weather is fairly unlikely (albeit non-zero), but gusty winds/brief heavy rain/small hail cannot be ruled out.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.