textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday may bring some thunderstorms to parts of the area.

- Highs in the mid to upper 80s Friday will slide down to the low to mid 70s by Sunday. Highs will later rebound back to the 90s to potentially around 100 degrees in a handful of places by midweek next week.

- Rain chances throughout the forecast are generally less than the last couple of weeks as "most" of the 7-day forecast is more dry than wet.

UPDATE

Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Surface high pressure is ridging its way into central Nebraska from the west resulting in clear skies and cool early morning temperatures in the 50s, even a few upper 40s in some of the traditional cooler areas to the west and north of Kearney.

Look for a nice day today with lots of sunshine, comfortable dewpoints and warmer temperatures as the high pressure slides southeast into Missouri by this evening. South winds on the back side of the high will pick up and gust to 30 mph this afternoon, so don't be shocked by the stronger winds, especially west of Highway 281.

Tonight, the low-level jet will kick in again ahead of an approaching cold front there. That will help return moisture and instability to the region. Some models, but not all, develop late night showers and thunderstorms at the nose of the low- level jet after 1 AM and linger them into the daylight hours Saturday. Teamed with a weak shortwave, effective shear is sufficient to support a few stronger storms overnight and early Saturday, assuming moisture return/instability is sufficient as well. Given the timing of the front and capping to the southwest, areas to the north and east of Grand Island are favored for this late night convection. Even though its just 24 hours away, some more model clarity/consensus would be helpful in determining the extent of the storms.

The cold front will eventually make progress during the morning hours Saturday, and spread a northerly wind across the area. SPC has removed any part any of the area out of the Day2 outlook for severe severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon as the front should manage to makes its way far enough south into Kansas to take the severe risk with it. Still, we carry small shower/storm chances for later Saturday for areas southeast of Hastings. Cold advection will spread across the area Saturday with the north winds making for a cooler afternoon than today. Skies will mostly clear out Saturday night and as winds drop off, look for another below normal night with lows ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s.

The forecast is technically dry from Sunday through Tuesday. However, the area remains in west/northwest upper flow, and while not likely wet, this flow can tend bring afternoon sprinkles or even showers, so watch for forecast refinements that may lead to some small rain chance. Sunday will be the coolest day with highs 6-8 degrees below normal. Highs will climb to normal by Tuesday. Summerlike temperatures sneak into the area Wednesday but look to be short lived as the northwest flow introduces rain/storm chances again and temperatures slipping back a bit thereafter.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Tonight and Friday...

Following a breezy and slightly cooler afternoon (mid 70s to low 80s), tonight is supposed to remain precip free. For the first time in what seems like several days (since Sunday), no storms or severe weather will threaten the area. Aloft, the upper-level trough that has been in the neighborhood across the last several days finally ejects east and away. This will turn the upper-level flow zonal, generally known to be a more quieter pattern. At the surface, higher pressure marching in behind last night's front has helped clear out most of the clouds for the day and also for Friday. Highs as response to the mostly clear skies will warm temperatures up a few degrees back to the mid-to-upper 80s. Winds out of the northwest and beginning to lighten this evening, will turn towards the south to southwest direction for Friday. Winds, though a little weaker from today, will still gust as high as 20-30MPH Friday afternoon.

Friday Night into Saturday...

A nearly horizontal (negatively) tilted trough attached to a low over Canada's Hudson Bay, will slip south to the north central Plains region Friday. This feature, marked by a southward dropping streamer of vorticity, will near Northmen Nebraska by Friday night. A cold front draped across underneath should be in play to innate a few storms across mainly the eastern half of the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning. At this point in time, the mention of severe weather remains somewhat limited for Friday night, although it would not be completely out of the question for a few pockets of hail or gusty thunderstorm winds to accompany a few of these storms. Conditionally, up to 2,000-3,500 j/kg of MUCAPE and around 35-50kts of bulk shear would generally be enough to support some strong storms, although there is some question on how well the moisture will rebound from today Today will be Winds will shift to the south from west-to-east today as the high pressure slides. The current forecast projects dewpoints to only be in the upper 40s to mid 50s at least initially, generally not all that supportive. A few of these overnight storms may linger into Saturday morning as the front passes through the area.

A slight risk of severe weather currently lays across a limited southeast portion of the area Saturday afternoon (southeast of a line from Hebron, NE to Osborne, KS). This severe threat will be highly conditional based on where the front makes it Saturday morning. Surging moisture from the southeast that day will meet the front, helping develop a few strong to severe thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Most of the activity, as of now, is expected to take place south and east of the area. If a storm does managed to clip our far southeast Nebraska or eastern Kansas areas, the main hazards will be for hail up to the size of quarter and gusty thunderstorms wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Otherwise, highs for Saturday will fall a few degrees shy of Friday (upper 70s to mid 80s). Surface winds will turn back northerly behind the passing front with sustained 15-20MPH winds gusting as high 25-35MPH Saturday afternoon.

Sunday and Beyond...

Broad troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will keep the flow aloft out of the northwest heading into next week. This pattern does not appear to be overly "wet" with only a handful of minor PoPs (10-20% chances) scattered hear and there through the forecast period (through next Thursday). There is not a particular day that stands out as being favorable for widespread thunderstorms or precipitation as of now. Temperature-wise, highs look to bottom out for the week Sunday (low to mid 70s) and gradually warming up back to the 90s to low 100s potentially by mid-week next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are likely to persist through most of the forecast period. Clear skies and light northwesterly winds will veer tonight and become southerly by sunrise. Winds will increase throughout the day, gusting to as high as 28 kts in the afternoon. Skies will be clear throughout the morning and early afternoon, with the potential for a few high clouds during the afternoon/evening.

Low-level wind shear is possible at the end of the forecast period, as a SSW nocturnal low-level jet develops and the surface winds start to weaken after sunset. However, confidence in the magnitude, height, and coverage of this shear is low and has thus not been included in the TAF at this time.

While thunderstorms are unlikely to impact the terminals during the forecast period, there is a nonzero chance at the very end of the forecast period (6Z and beyond). Again, this thunderstorm chance was not included in the TAF due to the low confidence of impacts during this forecast period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.