textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Extremely dangerous fire weather remains very likely to impact the entire region today. Rare "Extreme" conditions possible along and W of Highway 183. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire area this afternoon and evening. Improvement will be unusually slow this evening.

- Record-breaking heat today will give way to cooler, but still unseasonably mild, temperatures on Wednesday with highs still in the 60s. Winds won't be as strong as today, but continued dry air and moderate winds will keep fire weather concerns in place for one more day.

- Much cooler weather, along with the potential for accumulating snow for at least portions of the area, arrive on Thursday and continue into Friday. Best chances for impactful snow look to be along and N of I-80.

UPDATE

Issued at 430 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

By far, the main forecast concern in the short term remains centered around likely 'very critical' to possibly even 'extreme' fire weather this afternoon and evening. See dedicated fire weather section below for more details.

Besides the fire weather...another significant weather headline will be the very warm temperatures. Latest model guidance remains on track to shattered record highs for this date for both Grand Island and Hastings - our two longest period-of- record sites. Forecast highs remain largely unchanged from the previous package - widespread upper 70s to even some lower 80s. Still not ready to completely rule out a brief spike to 79-81 degrees even in the Tri-Cities - which would then bring monthly records into play. Today really does have all the ingredients one would like to see for extreme warm temperatures by February standards: multi-day warm leading into today, mild morning that jump starts temperatures, limited expected cloud cover, deep mixing to at least 8-10K ft, unidirectional SW to W low level winds, and very dry soil/ground conditions. A deepening trough over the central and northern Rockies will advect an extremely warm air mass that has already been observed to be one of the warmest ever sampled in mid-February. Both the 850mb and 700mb observed temperatures on last evening's 00Z sounding from Amarillo were at or above the 10-day max moving average. So...highly anomalous to begin with that will only be further modified by the aforementioned favorable factors.

Did add some blowing dust to the grids for today. Dust is never an easy hazard to forecast around here as conditions can be highly variable over very short periods...but past experience, along with the already mentioned factors - namely very strong winds over already very dry ground, lead me to believe it's going to be an issue to deal with for some. Groups of the population that are sensitive to poor quality should keep this in mind for this afternoon and evening. A Pacific cold front will swing through from W to E this evening and keep moderate to strong winds going well past sunset.

Wednesday won't be nearly as hot, but still unseasonably warm, with widespread highs in the 60s. Fortunately, winds won't be nearly as strong as today...but dry air will remain in place.

Still looking at a significant pattern change by Thursday - Thursday night to much colder and more wintry-like. General model consensus continues to indicate a potential W to E band of accumulating snow somewhere over mainly our Nebraska counties. Latest deterministic EC and GFS are actually in pretty good agreement that the band will focus N of I-80, from the Sandhills E/NE into the Siouxland region. Will continue to monitor trends and communicate this potential more broadly once we get past today's fire weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Currently through tonight... The combination of light winds and well above normal temperatures is making for quite a nice start to the new work week. Upper air and satellite data showing a quiet pattern aloft across the region, with zonal flow/broad ridging dominating the central CONUS. Skies remain mostly clear to partly cloudy, with batches of upper level cirrus passing through the area. At the surface, we're sitting between areas of high pressure off to our north and east, with overall weak troughing along the High Plains. This is keeping winds light, around 5-10 MPH...with varying direction. No big surprises as far as temperatures go, with everyone topping out at least in the 60s this afternoon, with readings near 70 across western areas.

This evening and tonight, quiet conditions continue. Models are in good agreement showing the current zonal upper level flow turning more southwesterly with time...as upper level troughing currently over the West Coast pushes further inland. Expecting to see more cloud cover overnight, with very mild overnight lows tonight...mid-upper 30s NW to mid 40s in the SE (normal is mid teens-near 20). The threat of new record warm lows remains...see the Climate section below for more.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Overall dry conditions remain in the forecast through the day on Wednesday, with the main forecast concern during this period remaining with fire weather concerns on Tuesday afternoon. More details on fire weather specifics can be found in the Fire Weather section below.

Looking at the daytime/evening hours on Tuesday, there hasn't been any significant changes in the models. Broad view, models continue show a large area of upper level low pressure moving into the Pac NW and continued troughing along the West Coast...while a shortwave disturbance (currently over srn CA) will be swinging northeast out of the Nrn/Central Rockies onto the Nrn/Central Plains. Ahead of this approaching disturbance, sfc troughing/low pressure over the High Plains deepens, bringing more SSErly winds by 12Z Tuesday. Winds are expected to increase in speed through the day, turning more SWrly ahead of sfc trough axis during the morning, then switching to the west as that boundary pushes through the forecast area. Tuesday remains the overall warmest day of this 7-day forecast period, with increased mixing and downsloping westerly winds tapping into a warmer airmass...forecast highs remain in the mid 70s for most spots (a few spots reaching closer to 80 is not totally out of the question), with record high temperatures looking to be broken (see Climate section below). One question with temperatures lies with cloud cover, especially across the southern half of the forecast area, where models show the potential for more cloud cover. The increased mixing and push of drier air with the surface boundary is expected to bring a notable drop in dewpoints, with the current forecast calling for teens to push into western portions of the coverage area.

The lone mention of precipitation during this period remains in the Tuesday evening period...but chances remain low around 20 percent. Models, to varying degrees, continue to show the potential for at least spotty rain showers across ENErn portions of the forecast area late in the day/evening, driven by that sfc frontal boundary and main upper level trough axis swinging through. These look to be short-lived chances, with models showing the better precip potential focusing off to our NNE.

For the daytime hours on Wednesday, models show the area sitting under upper level shortwave riding, set up between Tuesday's departing shortwave disturbance and the next one that will be working its way into/through the Rockies. The wind forecast is a bit uncertain, as we'll be losing the influence of one area of sfc low pressure (keeping winds westerly) and gaining the influence of the next one deepening over the High Plains, which will be switching winds back to more of SSErly direction. Cooler, but still above normal temperatures are expected, with low-mid 60s forecast.

Thursday on into early next week...

Following hot-by-Feb-standards temps on Tuesday, a taste of winter returns for Thursday as snow returns to the forecast. This next upper level shortwave disturbance emerges out onto the High Plains late Wed night-Thu AM...taking a bit more of an easterly track across the Central Plains, any northward progress stopped up by Tuesday's system which models have sitting near the MN/Can border. Colder air is ushered in by the system's accompanying cold front, meaning the likely p-type is snow. The best chances continue to favor the northern half of the forecast area...and with this still a few days out and some model differences, NBM PoPs are pretty broad, with 50-60 percent chances through the Tri-Cities and 30 percent chances down into north central KS. Latest runs of GFS/EC deterministic and ensembles show a tighter gradient from north to south...something to be worked on in the coming days. Latest run of the GFS/EC trended the precip and snowfall amounts tied to the west- east orientated axis of stronger mid-upper level frontogenetical forcing a touch further north...both showing areas south of I-80 with less than 10-20 percent chance of seeing one inch or more of snow accumulation. Whether you get snow or not, Thursday looks to be another windy day, with northwesterly winds building across the area behind the cold front...gusts of at least 30-35 MPH will be possible.

Additional low-end chances for precip remain in the forecast for the end of the week Fri-Sat...but confidence in those chances are not high, as models show some notable differences with where other disturbances track and whether they bring precip at all to the forecast area. Upper level ridging and dry conditions return for the start of the new week Sun-Mon.

As far as temperatures go, following the 70s Tuesday and 60s Wednesday, the reinforcing cold front passing through looks to drop highs for Thursday and Friday back closer to normal in to the 30s-low 40s. Expecting a rebound as we get through the weekend/early next week, with highs by Monday back in the mid 40s-low 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR expected through the period. High clouds will depart this morning before new mid level clouds develop along a surface trough this afternoon. Can't rule out a few sprinkles from the afternoon clouds, but not expecting enough to formerly include at this time. Mainly clear skies are expected overnight.

The primary aviation impact will be increasingly strong Srly winds by around midday, but especially this afternoon. The strong winds will turn more Wrly late afternoon into the evening. Expect winds to peak around 25kt sustained, and gusts to reach 30-35kt. Winds may be slightly stronger at EAR in the 22Z-01Z time frame. Winds will gradually decline after sunset this evening, but the decline will be slow. After 03Z, surface winds may decline enough to support low level wind shear as 40-45kt winds will continue overnight just above the surface. Confidence: High.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 445 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions remain very likely for this afternoon and evening for the entire forecast area. High-end/extreme fire weather will be possible along and W of Hwy 183 - particularly in the 21Z-01Z time frame.

Can't stress enough of just how high end of a fire weather day it appears today will be meteorologically, and potentially high impact for anyone that has to deal with new fire starts. For some historical perspective, before yesterday, the NWS Hastings forecast area has only been included in a SPC Day 2 "Extreme" Fire Weather category three times over the prior 20 years. The last "extreme" fire weather day was December 15, 2021...and we all know how that turned out. Now...we're not going to have the extreme high wind and gusts well over 60 MPH like we had that day...but what we'll be "lacking" in wind will be made up for in very hot/dry air and very dry fuels.

The most intense fire weather conditions still appear to favor areas along/W of Hwy 183, where there may be the greatest overlap of 40-50 MPH wind gusts and RHs only in the low to mid teens. Recent HRRR and RAP runs are forecasting a surge of single-digit dew points behind a W to E sweeping front. This front will turn winds from SW to W and basically maximize the downsloping Chinook potential. The other thing this front will do is keep dangerous fire weather going well into the mid to late evening - much later than what we typically see around here. So, any fire starts this afternoon that continue into the evening will remain difficult to fight.

For areas E of Hwy 183, conditions won't be quite as bad - but conditions will still be very concerning. Here, wind gusts should average more in the 30-45 MPH range, and minimum humidity levels around 15-20 percent. This is still near the upper-end of climatology and fuels - even in areas that experienced decent rainfall on Saturday - will still be very dry by this aftn.

Though cooler on Wednesday, dewpoints remain low, and afternoon relative humidity values may once again drop into the teens to near 20 percent. Winds are expected to be lighter, transitioning from westerly to start the day to more southerly by the end of the day. As such, elevated to near-critical fire weather will still be possible for at least portions of the forecast area (far S favored the most) for a few hours Wednesday aftn.

CLIMATE

Issued at 445 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Record high temperatures and warm low/min temperatures are likely to be approached/broken at various points Today for both the Grand Island airport (records back to 1896) and Hastings airport (records back to 1908).

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 17: 72 in 2017 | 78

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Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 17: 74 in 1981 | 77

- RECORD WARM LOW/MIN TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST Grand Island, NE (GRI)

Feb. 17: 41 in 1981 | 43

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Hastings, NE (HSI)

Feb. 17: 37 in 1972 | 44

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.