textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Temps well in the 90s/low 100s combined with dewpoints in the 60s-70s has brought heat index values over 100 to the entire forecast area this afternoon. No changes made to the Heat Advisory, which runs through 10PM this evening.

- A gradually southward-sinking surface cold front may spark off a few thunderstorms late this afternoon-evening, mainly across northern portions of the area. Can't rule out a few stronger storms, but severe weather doesn't look likely.

- This cold front brings relief from the heat Tuesday...while temps are still in the 80s-90s, dewpoints are forecast to be lower in the 50s-near 60.

- A more active pattern develops across the Central Plains mainly for Wednesday-Thursday, with periodic shortwave disturbances bringing precipitation to the entire area. Not looking like a non-stop rain that entire time...but at least the chances have returned.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Currently...

Quiet, but toasty conditions reign across the forecast area this afternoon...with satellite imagery showing plenty of sunshine in place. Looking in the upper levels...a ridge of high pressure remains the main feature for much of the central/western CONUS, roughly centered over the central Rockies. The ridging extends up into SW portions of Canada...with satellite imagery showing a low pressure system working its way east into the western Great Lakes region this afternoon. This upper level systems is helping drive a surface cold front south through the Plains...which is currently sitting across northern NE up into SErn SD and MN. Ahead of this front...temps have had little issue climbing well into the 90s to right around 100. Making things miserable this afternoon are the dewpoints, which currently sit in the mid 60s-low 70s...resulting in widespread heat index values over 100 degrees. No changes made to the CWA- wide Heat Advisory...which remains in effect until 10PM this evening.

Late this afternoon through Tuesday...

This sfc cold front will continue to sink south through the region this evening and tonight...and while it's arriving too late to provide any help with today's temperatures, it may aid in sparking off some thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening. Satellite imagery showing a line of CU developing from west-east along that boundary, barely along our far northern edge. The better upper forcing is lacking across our area...but a few isolated storms are not out of the question. While MUCAPE values across the area are not lacking...any storms will have to work against weaker deeper layer shear and warm mid-level temps, so they may struggle to maintain strength. The area is currently not outlooked by SPC for severe weather...but any stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail and heavy rainfall rates.

Through the overnight hours and into the morning hours on Tuesday...there is some disagreement among models with whether or not we see a second batch of activity develop. Model timing in decent agreement showing the sfc front clearing the CWA to the south between 09-12Z...with this isolated-scattered activity developing along an elevated front lagging behind across northern portions of the area. Because there are differences with whether or not it occurs..kept PoPs on the lower side after 03Z around 20 percent. Have chances ending mid-morning Tuesday with the rest of the day dry...but again there are some uncertainties in models, some showing at least a few isolated showers could linger longer into the day. Even if activity does linger...not looking at appreciable rainfall amounts. Behind the cold front, the more notable changes will be to the winds, which look to be northeasterly through the day...and temperatures/dew points. After the widespread 90s-low 100s today, forecast highs for Tuesday remain in the upper 80s in the NNE to mid 90s....not a huge change, but add in forecast dewpoints in the 50s- near 60 vs the 60s-70s today...it makes a difference.

Mid-week on through the weekend...

Better chances for precipitation do finally return to the forecast...mainly during the Wednesday-Thursday night time frame. Not expecting a non-stop rain-out or the like during that entire period...these chances coming more in a couple of waves. Models show the first of these shortwave upper level disturbance working into WNW portions of the area perhaps already as early late Tuesday night...with the better chances through the day on Wednesday focused more across the NNWrn half of the forecast area, with the disturbance riding more along the edge of the ridging/NWrly flow. Disturbances moving through later Wednesday night through Thursday look to have the potential to dig further south into the ridging while crossing the Rockies, helping spread those better chances further south. Will have to see how things trend in the coming days, at this point the overall severe threat is on the lower side...the area not being included in any SPC outlooks through mid-week.

As we get into the end of the week-upcoming weekend...precipitation chances look to be more sparse...as models show that upper level ridging reamplifying across central/western portions of the CONUS.

As far as temperatures go...with the better precipitation chances around, forecast highs Wed-Thu are mainly in the 70s-80s...climbing back well into the 90s by the end of the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light and variable winds are expected this evening as they shift from the south to the north behind a frontal passage. Behind the front north- northeasterly winds around 10kts are expected overnight, increasing Tuesday morning with gusts around 20kts at KEAR. Winds decrease late in the TAF period. FEW-BKN clouds around 100-150 are possible throughout the TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019.