textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Look for a some smoke on the eastern horizon today though it should remain mostly aloft.

- Temperatures on a slow climb to the upper 90s by the weekend resulting in triple digit heat index values.

- Overall dry conditions are expected to continue into early next week, but a stray shower or weak thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out (mainly Thursday).

UPDATE

Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The story remains essentially the same as the last few mornings: summer temperatures heating up this weekend, and chances for any precipitation of significance are very low.

Today will be dry though we may see a bit more afternoon cumulus this afternoon. We will also see more smoke, this time migrating west/northwest from the mid-Mississippi Valley around the upper level high pressure. A thick plume of smoke was already into western Missouri by last evening. The HRRR smoke model hasn't handled this smoke well (not enough smoke/too far north), but the general drift of the smoke should be to the north/northwest early today. This band of smoke is aloft and air quality stations in the Plains/Midwest do not show any significant surface impacts. Look for a colorful sunrise this morning, and possibly the feel of filtered sunshine through the first half of the day. Even with the smoke, high temperatures today should eek out a couple more degrees and still be around 90 (give or take).

While the forecast is dry through Monday, it is not completely implausible that a few showers or a thunderstorm pops up late Thursday afternoon, mainly southeast of Hastings. A small disturbance is migrating west/northwest through Arkansas and could trip a couple of showers between 4 and 8 PM Thursday, though the chance at any one location is less than 15%, and the forecast doesn't currently reflect any rain chance until next week.

Look for temperatures to rise steadily the rest of the week and into the weekend, peaking Saturday/Sunday. Heat indices will also creep up too peaking the 98 to 103 degree range. There may be some areas, especially east of Highway 281 which could be pushing Heat Advisory criteria. This is the main item to watch this weekend.

A cold front will push through the area Monday. The front should be basically dry thanks to very warm mid-level temperatures capping things off. Monday could also be a pretty hot day as moisture may pool ahead of/along the front and winds look light. However, relief comes the middle of next as temperatures fall back to the 80s and dewpoints drop into the 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Ridging continues to dominate the upper level pattern through this week. Near-normal temperatures today (upper 80s and low 90s) will trend warmer through the remainder of the workweek and will peak this weekend. Temperatures for this weekend have trended a touch higher. This is especially true for Sunday where the 50th percentile NBM is near 100 degrees for the entire area. Heat index values don't look to be "extreme," but a few areas could see values as high as 105.

The model consensus favors dry conditions through the weekend, although a few models hint at isolated convection as moisture and weak lift nudge in from the south. This would primarily be Thursday, although it would not be impossible to see something isolated any day through the weekend. All that being said, the strong consensus is for dry conditions to prevail for the majority of the area. Global ensembles depict an 80-100% chance for less than 0.10" through Monday. Normal rainfall during this period is roughly 0.10" per day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Some patchy fog has developed at KGRI so a couple hours of MVFR visibility is expected, though the fog is likely fairly shallow and patchy in nature. Aside from that, VFR conditions are forecast. Expect some scattered afternoon cumulus for a few hours. Winds will be less than 12 kts and conintue from the south/southeast.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.