textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy precipitation from Friday night's storms has continued to leave a few areas of slow moving or standing water across portions of Hamilton, York and far northern Fillmore counties. For more information, please refer to the Areal Flood Warning statement or the hydrology section below.

- A few areas of fog will be possible to form late tonight into Monday morning.

- A few severe storms may be possible across portions of the area primarily Monday as well as Tuesday afternoon/night. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary severe threats.

- Temperatures will near the 90s to low 100s Tuesday afternoon with heat indices as high as 105 degrees. A cold front passage on Wednesday should steer highs more towards the 80s to lower 90s for the rest of the week.

- Scattered storm chances return to the forecast mainly Wednesday night (15-40% chance), Friday night (15-30% chance) and Saturday (20- 35% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Short Term...Tonight and Monday

Though a few isolated showers or weak thunderstorms across our eastern Nebraska locations remain possible through this evening (10- 25% chance east of HWY-281), most areas across the region are likely to remain dry overnight. The potential for fog may also be possible tonight given clearing skies and lightening southeast winds. If fog does develop, a few patches of dense fog may have to be monitored to see if coverage becomes widespread enough for a dense fog advisory. The main concern in the short-term period, however, will be in regards to the potential for severe convection Monday afternoon to mainly Monday night from the presence of a passing cold front.

Synoptically-speaking, a shortwave trough sliding up through the Midwest today will make space for the eastward expansion of a longwave North Pacific U.S. trough. This feature is expected to become the prominent driving force for the mid-to-upper level pattern this week, influencing the areas' precipitation chances.

As far as Monday goes, weaker yet steady southeasterly winds at the surface, will help advect in more moisture (mid 60s to lower 70s dewpoints). In addition, though there is still some uncertainty with how expansive cloud coverage will become, temperatures are expected to inch a few degrees higher than today (highs nearing the upper 80s to low 90s). This warmer and slightly more moist airmass will increase atmospheric instability, likely inflating CAPE values up to between 2,500-4,000J/kg (mid to higher end values for rapid thunderstorm growth). In addition, modest shear (25-35kts of bulk shear) with supportive low-to-mid level lapse rates (7-9 C/km) appear to set the stage for severe weather anywhere storms fire. As result of the supportive environment, a Marginal SPC severe weather outlook is in effect across the full area for Monday.

So, what is the catch? Like with all forecasts, there is still some uncertainties that could change the way that the event plays out. As of now, the collection of models continue to sort into two leading scenarios. The first concern regards the forcing mechanism. The absence of notable mid-level vorticity advection from an approaching trough/PV anomaly, leaves us to believe that any convection that forms for Monday will be locally forced rather than from synoptic assent. In other words, the development of thunderstorms will likely be tied to the passage of the passing cold front.

The main contributor to the uncertainty for Monday is with the timing of this frontal passage. The main divergence between the HRRR/GFS and NAMNEST/NAM/ECMWF models today is with the timing/location of this front. The HRRR/GFS models are currently suggesting more aggressive convection in the evening to overnight hours with the front passing through later in the day. A later passage of the front would allow more time for the environment to destabilize (additionally taking advantage of the nocturnal LLJ). If this scenario actualizes, a MCS may be favored to race through much of our area (at least 50%, the best potential north of the state line). The main concerns would be strong straight line wind gusts up to 70MPH with large hail or an isolated tornado possible.

The other case, however, would still support the potential for severe weather, though storm activity may be more dispersed through the day and more spotty in coverage compared to widespread. The NAM/NAMNEST/ECMWF models have been a little faster at advancing the front, potentially seeing storm activity initialize earlier in the day before the instability is maximized. Though severe weather will still be possible and earlier in the day, activity may not be as widespread as if the activity occurred later in the evening/nighttime.

As it stands, there is two main scenarios that could play out that could effect when storms develop and how widespread impacts may become. Either way, the environment looks to be supportive for severe weather across at least a portion of the area Monday afternoon to night.

Long Term...Tuesday and Beyond

Following the potential for severe weather on Monday, a more limited coverage of severe storms may follow on Tuesday (20-30% chance). Given warming temperatures, continued afternoon instability and slightly increases shear from the approach of the Northwest U.S. trough, the potential for severe weather will remain possible for Tuesday. The main concern at this time will be if Monday nights' storms affect Tuesdy's environment, potentially limiting instability from any lingering morning showers.

Besides the returning storm chances, temperatures look to continue to be on track to near and reach the low triple digits across a few north central Kansas and far southwest Nebraska locations. The rest of the area will likely see highs in the mid-to-upper 90s Tuesday. These warmer temperatures will mainly be assisted by steady southerly warm air advecting winds blowing between 15-20MPH and gusting as high as 30-35MPH. Heat indices will likely reach the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees across the full area. As result, a Moderate to Major heat risk classification (levels 2 & 3 out of 4) will be in place across the area. It is suggested that any individual who may be more susceptible to the heat to have an effective source for cooling/hydration. The only factor that could prevent temperatures from reaching this high would be if cloud coverage becomes more widespread or showers/storms Tuesday morning overstay their welcome.

A secondary/reinforcing cold front passing through the area Wednesday will likely keep the warmup from lasting past Wednesday as temperatures Thursday through the end of the week should not surpass the 80s to low 90s. A few more additional chances for storms lie in the extended period overnight Wednesday (15-40% chances), Friday night (15-30%) and Saturday (20-35% chances). Given limited uncertainty in how the upper-level pattern will unfold the second half of the week (progression and timing of the upper-level trough), limited details are currently known on the intensity, timing and coverage of these potential storms.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low ceilings and/or fog are expected beginning around 06z. The fog is expected to continue until around 15z and the low clouds may continue until 15z to 18z or later. There is uncertainty in how widespread or dense the fog will get. Southeast winds will switch to the east to northeast by 15z. North winds are expected by 21z. Winds will generally be between 5 to 10 knots by 03z.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Heavy precipitation from Friday night's storms has continued to be slow to filter out of a few portions of Hamilton, York and far northern Fillmore counties as of this afternoon. Several rivers/creeks remain nearly full to just overflowing their banks, leaving a few area of slow moving or standing water. Flooding across a few of these areas may continue to persist through tonight and possibly into Monday morning. As result, an Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for portions of the area mentioned above.

The basins most likely to experience continued flooding into tonight include: West Fork of the Big Blue River (Downstream of Stockham) Beaver Creek (Giltner through York County) Lincoln Creek (Hamilton and York Counties).

Any additional rainfall this evening/tonight is expected to be isolated and non-impactful to our ongoing flooding.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.