textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low chance (20% or less) of a shower/isolated storm moving across northern portions of the forecast area late tonight.

- There is a 40% to 60% chance of fog development overnight, especially across areas that received the most rainfall yesterday.

- There is a fairly high chance (around 70%) of strong to severe storms impacting the area this evening into tonight.

- The main hazards with storms this evening into tonight are large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.

- Severe storm threats continue for Tuesday and Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Currently watching storms across northern Nebraska moving southeast toward northern portions of the forecast area (in and around Ord, NE). Models are showing these storms weakening as they move southeast so not expecting severe weather overnight. Some models have them completely dissipating before reaching the forecast area, but there remains a low chance (20% or less) of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm late tonight/after sunrise for mainly Valley, Greeley, Sherman, and Howard Counties. There is a chance (40% to 60%) of fog development overnight. The highest chances for fog development will be across areas that received the most rain yesterday morning. The hindering factor for fog development will be high clouds moving across the area. Will be monitoring conditions for fog development. Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. High temperatures today will range from the low 80s to low 90s. Storms are expected to develop by late this afternoon across western and northern Nebraska and move eastward and southward toward the forecast area. Storms could impact northern portions of the forecast area (primarily north of I-80) as early as 6 to 8 PM. These storms will continue to develop and move southeastward through the evening into the overnight hours. More storms will likely develop during the overnight hours behind the initial cluster of storms. The storms may be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding is also possible. These storms are expected to continue through most, if not all, of the overnight hours tonight and will likely continue into the morning hours on Tuesday (especially across northern and eastern portions of the forecast area). The forecast area is in a marginal (level 1 out of 5) to slight (level 2 out of 5) threat of severe weather for today and tonight. There is also a mostly slight threat of severe weather on Tuesday although there is quite a bit of uncertainty in placement and timing of storms. Portions of the area are in a marginal threat of severe weather for Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Absolutely gorgeous late summer weather out there this afternoon and evening. Get out and enjoy it if you can. Quiet conditions look to persist tonight and through most, if not all, of the daylight hours Monday. Highs should climb 3-5 degrees most location for Monday given the quieter/sunnier start to the day, but still seasonable in the 83-88 degree range.

Next chance for storms will come from convection that develops along a cold front over north central Nebraska late Monday afternoon, then moves SE during the evening and overnight. Expect a general evolution - in terms of intensity - fairly similar to recent weeks in that the strongest activity will be prior to 9-10PM, then gradual weakening thereafter. This would place the highest severe chances just NW of the local area, right where SPC has a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). What does make it into the area would probably be in the form of one or two small clusters and pose primarily a risk for 50-60 MPH gusts.

The aforementioned front looks to drape somewhere across the area on Tuesday - with the ultimate location being somewhat reliant upon how strong/widespread Monday night's activity is. Northern Kansas is most likely to remain storm/outflow free the longest, so these locations could get quite warm by Tuesday afternoon with forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s. Add in a little bit of humidity (not as much as further E/NE, though) and heat indices could sneak into the lower 100s. The weather headline for Tuesday, however, will be chances for at least scattered storms to develop over the area during the late afternoon and evening. Pooling moisture and insolation ahead of the composite outflow/front should support moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE values in excess of 2-3K J/kg. Forecast soundings from various guidance at 21Z Tue also show seasonably strong deep layer shear of 30-40kt amidst relatively straight hodographs above 1-2km. This should support initial splitting supercells with both large hail and wind threat...then gradual upscale growth into one or two clusters and transition to primarily a damaging wind threat for the late evening into early overnight hours. Agree with the latest SPC outlook showing a broad Slight risk category across the area - including the recent inclusion of a Cig 1 delineation.

Expect cooler temperatures behind the front Wednesday-Thursday, and may see another couple rounds of showers and storms, most favored during the evening and overnight hours. Confidence on details, though, is quite low.

Pattern may quiet down some heading into next weekend and warm back to, or even above, seasonable levels for temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence in VFR (both ceiling/visibility) through at least the vast majority of the period. Also high confidence that at least the vast majority of the period is dry, although there is an small (deemed around 30%) chance for a few passing showers/thunderstorms very late tonight into Tuesday morning...slightly more favoring KGRI than KEAR. Aside from any potential convective outflow influence/enhancement (which IS possible), winds will not be a significant issue, with sustained speeds prevailing under 12KT throughout. Later TAFs may need to consider a formal inclusion of low level wind shear (LLWS) for late overnight.

- Ceiling/visibility and thunderstorm potential details: High confidence in VFR through at least the vast majority of the the period, with the only potential caveats being perhaps a brief period of MVFR visibility and/or ceiling mainly sometime between 09-15Z...associated with passing showers/thunderstorms and/or light fog. Speaking of thunderstorms, the very latest higher-res models show overall-decreasing chances for either terminal seeing any late-night/early morning convection...but IF it were to occur would seemingly favor KGRI a bit more so than KEAR. As a result, for now have removed a PROB30 group from KEAR, but have maintained for KGRI, albeit "shifted later" to 09-15Z.

- Wind details: - Surface winds: This afternoon into early this evening, generally southerly breezes will prevail with modest gusts up to around 17KT, but prevailing speeds mainly at-or-below 11KT. This evening and overnight, steady light south-southeasterly speeds should prevail...BUT...there will be at least a small chance for convective outflow to race through and abruptly turn winds more northerly-to-easterly. Once winds recover from any potential convective outflow, a generally southeasterly component should re-establish late in the period.

- Potential low level wind shear (LLWS) late tonight: Strongly considered introducing a formal LLWS group to TAFs for mainly 06-12Z, as south-southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL are expected to accelerate up to around 38KT. However, given this potential concern is mainly just beyond the first 12 hours, and that it currently appears at least slightly- too-weak/marginal for TAF inclusion, have held off for now.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.