textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing round of rain should gradually wind down from SW to NE this morning...leaving only spotty, occasional light showers/sprinkles for most of the rest of the day. Those looking for some sunshine, however, will be disappointed.

- Another batch of scattered to widespread showers & storms will be possible late this evening into Saturday morning. Isolated heavy rain on top of areas that have already gotten 2-4 inches of rain could lead to localized flooding.

- Most areas should remain mainly dry Saturday afternoon into Sunday, and possibly into most of Monday. Scattered to widespread rain returns Mon night into Tue.

- Highs will rebound into the 70s along and S of the state line today, and expect further warming into the 70s-80s area wide this weekend. Mainly 60s-70s expected Tue-Thu next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

No significant changes in the short term from what was discussed below. A shortwave currently traversing the forecast area is producing scattered to widespread showers, mainly from around the Tri-Cities to the north and east. This activity will gradually wind down from SW to NE as the shortwave moves out. Latest short-term model trends suggest even far NE zones should be done with organized rain by ~10AM. Guidance also suggests the rest of the daytime and evening hours should be void of organized/significant rain. However, I'm hesitant to call it "a for sure dry period" as forecast soundings indicate plentiful low level moisture/low clouds that will make patchy drizzle or a brief light shower/sprinkles possible at just about any time. So generally speaking, damp and dreary today, but not nearly as wet or steady of rain as yesterday. Prospects for any sort of significant sunshine today appears to be low, though portions of our KS forecast area could see some breaks late in the day and a nudge in temperatures up into the mid to upper 70s. Elsewhere, expect mainly 60s to around 70s for highs today.

Models bring yet another shortwave and chances for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms into the region tonight, mainly after 03Z/10PM. Instability looks to be a bit higher (MUCAPE of 500-800 J/kg), but forecast soundings show this CAPE to be the tall/"skinny" variety with very meager mid level lapse rates. This suggests the main concern will be additional locally heavy rainfall (another 1-2"?), which if it occurs over areas that have already received 3-4" over the past 24 hours (roughly Norton, KS to Minden, NE), there could be some localized minor/nuisance hydro issues.

Most, if not all, of the organized rain should be out of the area by dawn Saturday morning...though similar to today, cloudy, damp, and dreary conditions will continue through at least the AM hours. May finally see some more appreciable breaks in the cloud cover for Saturday afternoon and warmer temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. However, this could also allow for isolated redevelopment with the peak heating Saturday afternoon, mainly for areas E of Hwy 281. This is still relatively low confidence (limited forcing), so only 20-30% chances in the forecast for now.

Sunday looks to be quite nice at this time, with a mix of sun and clouds, light easterly wind, and comfortable high temperatures in the 70s/80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 429 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

This evening through Friday night...

Main concern for this evening on through tomorrow night continues to lie with precipitation chances. Models remain in good agreement in the broader picture, showing continued southwesterly flow in the upper levels...our precipitation chances driven by the passage of a couple more shortwave disturbances. After a bit of a lull from activity which moved in last night...the next round of showers/storms is already working its way into the region from the southwest. Models continue to show this evening/overnight being the main timeframe with this next batch...which they also show being more scattered in nature (vs the widespread shield of precip we had earlier in the day). Overall threat for severe weather is low...but instability isn't zero, not out of the question a few storms through tonight could produce some small hail/gusty winds. Of more concern would be additional rainfall...if any stronger storms with more notable rates were to spend much time over areas which already had 2- 4 inches of rain from earlier today, could have some minor flooding issues arise.

During the daytime hours on Friday...in general models have trended toward a less active period. Can't totally rule out precipitation for any particular portion of the forecast area...but the coverage appears that it'll be more isolated- scattered in nature. Better chances look to arrive once again later in the day and more into the evening/overnight hours as lift increases with the arrival of the next upper level shortwave disturbance. Again the overall threat for severe weather is low (SPC Day 2 remains 'general thunder' for the area)...but if can get a few breaks in the clouds/better instability into the area, can't rule out some stronger storms.

This weekend on into the new work week...

Still some uncertainty with just how quickly precipitation exits the forecast area off to the east on Saturday...some models have continued to trend a touch slower, potentially lingering activity across eastern areas well into the afternoon hours. Once the upper level trough driving those chances pushes east, models showing shortwave ridging working its way across the Plains...drying the forecast for Saturday night through at least Sunday. It's possible that much of Monday ends up being dry as well...but do have some low chance PoPs in the forecast. Models showing the next notable upper level system arriving in the Tuesday-ish time frame...but uncertainties remain due to differences between models with how the system moves through. The ECMWF remains on the slower/stronger side with the potential for more preciptiation...the GFS more progressive/quicker. Panning out like the ECMWF would drag precipitation chances further out into the rest of the week...GFS dries things out quicker. As far as temperatures go...still looking at 70s-low 80s for the weekend-Mon...potentially more 60s Tuesday on, depending on how precip works out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR conditions are expected for the majority of the TAF period, with LIFR potential through 16z Friday morning as scattered showers continue. Light pockets of lingering showers cannot be ruled out entirely after 16z, so have placed any lingering precip in PROB30 groups. A marginal return to MVFR ceilings will be possible in the late afternoon to early evening. Finally, thunderstorm chances move in during the early evening hours, with the highest chances after 03z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.