textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms arrive from the north early this morning. The severe threat has decreased, but a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out through 9am.

- Dry conditions return for the rest of the daytime today. Weakening showers and storms arrive from the west late tonight into Sunday morning.

- Scattered showers and storms continue on Sunday, but severe weather is unlikely.

- Off and on chances for rain and thunderstorms continue through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have developed over northern Nebraska are slowly drifting southward. This is expected to be the primary feature to watch through the morning hours, although some isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out further south/southwest as well.

As of 130am, these elevated storms remain fairly disorganized and unimpressive, but there is still potential for them to briefly organize/intensify as they slide through the area in the 3-9am timeframe.

After these storms depart, the rest of the day looks to be dry with seasonable temperatures and light winds. Scattered showers and storms return from the west late tonight...most likely after 2am. These storms should be on a weakening trend as they move into an increasingly less favorable thermodynamic environment. As such, severe weather is unlikely.

CAMs suggest that scattered showers/storms could persist through the daytime on Sunday. Lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures (and instability) on the lower side. Therefore the severe threat remains low.

The continued northwesterly flow pattern will keep daily chances for rain and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week. Based on the global ensembles, Tuesday night appears to be the most favorable day for thunderstorms (and perhaps a few severe storms), but overall details remain very uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Currently through the rest of this afternoon...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way southeast across the forecast area today...a trend that will continue though mid-late afternoon hours. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing this activity being driven by a weaker shortwave disturbance sliding out of central SD and into NNErn NE. This disturbance is embedded in larger scale northwesterly flow set up across the Central/Nrn Plains...between ridging extending northward out of the Desert SW and broad troughing across the Great Lakes/Midwest region, while a larger area of low pressure spins off the Pac NW coast. The surface pattern across the forecast area has been a bit of a messy one throughout the day...between just an overall weaker pressure gradient along with any even weak outflow boundaries produced by this activity today...winds are variable in direction. Most speeds have been around 5-10 MPH, a few spots closer to any storms have had gusts closer to 25-30 MPH at least for a brief time.

For the rest of this afternoon-early evening...main story will continue to lie with continued potential for scattered showers/storms pushing SE through and eventually out of the forecast area. Near/out ahead of this activity, SPC meso page showing MLCAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg, with deeper layer/effective shear of at least 30kts. Storms working their way SE will continue to have the potential to be strong/severe...one thing working against activity is that the upper level disturbance/lift just isn't overly strong, which isn't helping overcome some lingering capping. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary threats. One good thing about the scattered nature of this activity is that so far, areas that had been on the wetter side over the past few days are getting a chance to dry up a bit.

Later tonight on into this weekend...

Once this ongoing activity slides off to our SE, models continue to show a relative lull across the area through the evening hours. Winds should be turning more east-northeasterly, with models showing an area of sfc low pressure setting up off to our west- southwest...but speeds look to remain on the lighter side overall. A few models try to bring another round of isolated activity back into the area already by around 06Z, but there is more model support for the timing of the next round of showers/storms to be closer to/after 08Z or so. Models showing this activity developing into a NW-SE orientated swath across the forecast area...tied to another weaker, mainly mid-level shortwave disturbance moving through, aided some by frontogenetical forcing closer to 850mb. Hi-res models showing this elevated activity could have CAPE values around 1500 j/kg to tap into, with deeper layer shear around 30-40kts possible...keeping the potential for strong-severe storms in place. Entire CWA remains in the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area through tonight...large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats, though additional heavy rainfall rates are not out of the question as well.

Not out of the question that some activity could linger into the morning hours on Saturday...and uncertainty in the exact timing of that departure is not high...but outside of that models are in pretty good agreement showing the daytime hours being dry. Aloft, models showing continued northwesterly flow across the area...if anything that low pressure system currently off the Pac NW starts pushing inland, giving the main ridge axis a bit of an eastward push. Winds look to remain on the lighter side around 10-15 MPH, remaining easterly. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 80s.

Models showing another upper level shortwave disturbance riding around the edge of the ridge axis Saturday evening through Sunday AM...bringing another chance for showers/storms to the entire forecast area. The area is currently not outlooked in the SPC Day 2 outlook (just in general thunder)...with models currently showing the better axis of instability setting up just off to our west, and deeper layer shear is on the weaker side.

Confidence in precipitation chances Sunday-Sunday night is on the lower side (outside of any lingering activity from Sat night)...with NBM PoPs mainly clipping northern and eastern portions of of the forecast area. Models not showing any notable change in the upper level pattern...and winds turn more southerly as sfc troughing develops over the High Plains. Forecast highs are more in the upper 70s for central/eastern areas, low-mid 80s further west...but that will be dependent on timing of any lingering precipitation.

Next week...

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast as we get into the new work week...but honestly, not a ton of confidence at this point in the timing/tracking of any of the upper level disturbances driving these chances. Models show varying amplitude of the main upper level ridging through the week...so a stronger northward push of the ridge could push better precip chances out of the area, a more zonal pattern could bring more chances...plenty of details to iron out in the coming days. Not seeing any notable swings in temperatures either way through the week...with forecast highs mainly in the mid 80s-low 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern comes right off the bat, as a cluster of showers/storms continues to slide southeast through the area early this morning. The terminal sites are on the backside of the heaviest storms, but for at least the first hour of this TAF period, will keep the potential mentioned in a TEMPO group. Dry conditions currently forecast for the remainder of this period once this activity moves out...though there is some uncertainty in the final couple of hours, mainly for KEAR, as models show the potential for another round of activity to be working in from the west. Will fine tune the timing as more model data arrives. Winds through the period remain light, variable for the front/back ends of the period...more easterly winds expected through the daytime hours today.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.