textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Our forecast remains all but "guaranteed" dry through Monday daytime. Temperatures will be on the rise each of the next few days...with our entire area back into seasonably-hot territory for Monday. Fortunately, dewpoints/humidity will remain low enough to keep heat index under 100 degrees across the vast majority of our CWA.

- Cooler temperatures arrive for especially Tues-Wed, followed by a gradual climb back to hotter weather that really arrives next weekend and probably lasting beyond this 7-day forecast into at least the first part of the following week.

- Rainfall-wise: Starting Monday night and lasting through Wednesday, intermittent chances for showers/thunderstorms will bring our highest/most widespread rain chances of the week. That being said, much of this activity is looking more scattered in coverage (versus widespread), so rain totals will surely be plenty variable.

- During this same Mon night-Wed time frame, the potential will exist for a few stronger thunderstorms (perhaps even limited severe?), but limited instability could end up being a limiting factor, and at least for now SPC has not "outlooked" any of our CWA with a formal severe risk category.

UPDATE

Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES WORTH NOTING/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/THINGS WORTH MENTIONING BEYOND THE FIRST 48 HOURS:

- In the first half of the 7-day forecast, probably one of the bigger things to note is that there is still plenty to do as far as deciphering the "finer details" of the various rain/thunderstorm chances Monday night- Wednesday (especially Tuesday-Wednesday). While parts of our CWA WILL surely see decent rain, the overall-scattered nature of this convection will likely result in rather variable totals. Even the areal placement of the most favored higher rainfall is still questionable. While the latest "official" QPF (rain amount) forecasts currently favor the northern half of our CWA for highest totals(leaving our KS counties largely dry), some models (including the latest NAM and higher-res RRFS actually suggest that better rain chances COULD actually favor the southern half of our CWA. Much of this will depend on how aggressively the incoming cold front could potentially shunt forcing/instability southward versus keeping it farther north. Again, plenty of questions here.

- Keeping with the early-mid week rain/thunderstorm chances, while we are not officially "outlooked" by SPC yet for even a Marginal Risk for a few severe storms, this forecaster would not be surprised to see later outlooks assign a Marginal to at least parts of our area for Tuesday and/or Wednesday. "Old school" SREF calibrated severe storm probs suggest that especially Tues afternoon-evening could hold some limited severe potential...much will depend on how efficiently the airmass can destabilize/recover from what could be quite a bit of lingering weak showers and/or cloud cover from earlier activity Mon night-Tues AM.

- Shifting to the end of the current 7-day forecast (and beyond), forecast high temps for Saturday went up a good 5 degrees from previous (now calling for widespread 90s most areas and even around 100 far southwest). This appears to represent the start of a multi-day hotter stretch that could last well into the following week per latest longer range guidance (such as ECMWF ensemble) and as evidenced by a high probability of above normal temperatures on CPC's latest 8-14 day outlook.

-- NOW FOCUSING SOLELY ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS (through Mon night-early Tues AM): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM: As fully expected, a very tranquil and slightly-seasonably-cool overnight/early morning has unfolded, with low temps on track to bottom out a few degrees either side of 60 most places. In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm that our Central Plains region resides under nearly due-northerly flow...resulting from being located along the eastern periphery of a sprawling high/ridge centered over the Desert Southwest...and to the west of a deep/large scale trough over the eastern United States.

At the surface, a roughly 1015 millibar ridge/high pressure axis sits almost directly over us, promoting very light to almost calm breezes in most areas. Under essentially pristinely clear skies, this has resulted in a favorable setup for not only the aforementioned seasonably-cool temps, but also a good recipe for at least patchy/shallow fog...particularly within the northeast 2/3rd of our CWA where surface relative humidity is overall- highest. Between now and 8-9 AM, patchy fog could persist or yet develop...perhaps becoming dense and reducing visibility down to around 1/4 mile on a very localized basis. With any truly dense fog likely being VERY sparse in coverage, there are no plans for a formal Advisory, but did opt to toss a mention into our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID).

- TODAY: Despite the coolish start, really the biggest story today will be a decent (generally 5-8 degree) warm-up versus yesterday, as warmer air starts to move in from the west. Afternoon highs are forecast to top out 88-93 degrees across most of our CWA, but as high as 95-97 mainly in far southwestern counties such as Furnas/Phillips/Rooks. Skies will be mostly sunny at worst, although like yesterday there will likely be at least a limited amount of high-level smoky haze from wildfires mainly over the Pacific Northwest and Canada, and there will likely also be a little high level cirrus moving in from the northwest (mainly this afternoon). At the surface, breezes will very slowly increase today in the wake of the very light start, first becoming southerly and then more south-southeasterly this afternoon on the backside of the departing ridge axis. Speeds will not be strong (only a touch breezy at most), ranging from only sustained 5-15 MPH/gusts 10-20 MPH...overall- lightest in our southeast CWA and overall-strongest in our west/northwest.

- TONIGHT: It remains dry under only some thin/passing high cirrus. The main difference between tonight and the ongoing early morning/late night is that low temperatures will hold up 5+ degrees warmer (most areas bottoming out mid 60s), due in part to steady south-southeast breezes commonly 6-13 MPH with slightly higher gusts. These steady breezes will also help to hold fog development at bay.

- MONDAY DAYTIME (through around 7 PM): This is the final of our guaranteed dry periods for a while, and it will also be our hottest day until at least next weekend, along with being noticeably breezier than today. In response to a vigorous mid-upper level shortwave trough charging across MT toward the Dakotas, surface pressures will fall, kicking up south- southeast winds another notch. Sustained speeds much of the day will average at least 15-20 MPH/gusts 25-30 MPH. High temps will get a roughly 3-5 degree boost versus those of today...with most of the CWA reaching the low-mid 90s, and upper 90s to slightly over 100 more common in the southwestern 1/4 of our CWA. Fortunately, dewpoints will remain low enough (mainly upper 50s-mid 60s) to keep heat index in check, but some of our far southwestern counties could tag 100 (slightly short of Advisory criteria).

- MONDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Leaning heavily on higher-res models such as HRRR/NAMNest now that it's getting within their range, the bottom line is that chances for showers and mainly weak thunderstorms re-enter the picture. Prior to midnight, convection will first enter roughly the northwest 1/2 of our CWA from the west, likely in a weakening phase as it "runs out of steam" due to decreasing instability/warm air aloft etc. That being said, we cannot totally rule out a stronger storm or two (mainly with a gusty wind threat) brushing into mainly the far north/northwest fringes of our CWA (SPC has kept their official Marginal Risk BARELY to our northwest...focused more over the Sandhills). Post-midnight, our entire CWA will be prone to at least slight chances for isolated/scattered showers and largely-weak storms as a disturbance aloft passes through and a surface cold front slices southward into our area...turning winds north- northeasterly. However, the cooler air really won't be truly realized until Tuesday daytime, with Monday night low temps dropping no lower than the mid 60s to low 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Currently through Sunday...

Been a quiet, pleasant start to the weekend across the region...with dry conditions continuing the rest of today into tonight. The pattern across the CONUS is a well-amplified one. Upper air and satellite data showing sharper north-northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains...sandwiched between high pressure centered over the Desert SW with northward- extending ridging and an area of low pressure making its way across the Midwest. Satellite imagery also showing that outside of a bit of scattered lower-level cumulus as well as some higher-level thin smoke from wildfires off to the north- northwest, continues to be plenty of sunshine out there. At the surface, high pressure remains the primary feature, gradually shifting east with time. This is keeping winds north- northeasterly this afternoon, some gusts near 20 MPH, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. Not looking at any surprises as far as temps go, topping out in the mid-80s for much of the area.

Expecting quiet conditions to continue on into this evening and tonight...winds becoming light/variable and eventually more southerly as that surface ridging continues pushing east. Not out of the question that some patchy fog could develop around dawn...mainly across eastern portions of the area where the lightest winds (potentially outright calm) are expected to be. Not expecting widespread coverage, looking like mainly in lower- lying areas.

For Sunday, no notable changes made to the forecast, which remains dry. Models showing continued north-northwesterly flow aloft for the area...but off to our west, a larger-scale trough/low pressure system is working its way into the Pac NW/West Coast, starting to dampen the ridging. As the sfc high pressure system continues pushing east, troughing is deepening over the High Plains, spreading the south-southeaster winds area-wide...far western areas could have some gusts near 20 MPH through the afternoon hours. Temperatures are forecast to be a touch warmer...with mid-80s in the east to low-90s further west.

New work week...

The main story for the upcoming new work week is the transition from an amplified upper level pattern to one that more zonal in nature.

Monday is the day where the brunt of this transition occurs...as models show the larger upper level low pressure system shifting further into central Canada, and the accompanying troughing extending south well into the Rockies. An approaching surface cold front will be working its way south through the day...but models are in good agreement keeping it NW of the forecast area through the afternoon hours. This will bring the potential for breezy south- southeasterly winds, resulting from a tighter pressure gradient...sustained speeds around 15-20 MPH will be possible. Also expecting another bump up in temperatures, with forecast highs around 90 in the east to around 100 in the southwest.

Monday evening, this sfc frontal boundary will be the focus for thunderstorm development...but there is some uncertainty with the overall coverage given the better upper level forcing is better focused to the north. Into the overnight hours, models show a strengthening low-level jet, with the better convergence along its edge remaining focused along our north-northwestern portions of the forecast area. Because of those lingering coverage uncertainties, precipitation chances remain on the lower side, mainly in the 20-30 percent range.

The forecast through the rest of the work week is driven by the potential for periodic upper level shortwave disturbances to pass through the region in that zonal/progressive flow. Models are in decent agreement with the timing...with the better overall chances favoring the evening-overnight hours. More uncertainty lies with the location and coverage...as that will be dependent on the location of any surface/low-level boundaries...which could be greatly impacted by any activity from the previous day. Hard to have ton of confidence in the finer details the further out in time one goes. As far as temperatures go...forecast highs are cooler mid-week, with more 70s-80s for Tue-Wed...warming back up into the 80s-90s by the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 728 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Other than no more than 60-90 minutes of lingering potential for MVFR visibility in shallow/patchy fog (included in a TEMPO), the remainder of the period is extremely-high-confidence VFR...with only limited degrees of passing high level cirrus. The period is also guaranteed to remain precipitation-free.

As for surface winds, they will be an overall-minimal issue through the period. After starting out very light right away this morning, sustained speeds will gradually become established from the south-southeast from this afternoon onward, with sustained speeds mostly no higher than 10-12KT (sporadic higher gusts). Very late in the period overnight-early Monday morning (08-12Z), southerly wind ramp up within the lowest 2K ft. AGL above the surface, allowing modestly-strong low level wind shear (LLWS) to develop. At this time, have introduced LLWS only to KEAR, where confidence is higher in shear magnitude between the surface and the 1-2K ft. AGL level reaching around 30KT. At least for now, these low-level winds look slightly weaker at KGRI, falling just short of TAF-inclusion criteria.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.