textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A few (potentially severe) storms will be possible Friday afternoon to early evening across a few locations east of HWY-281. The main hazards will be hail up to the side of ping pong balls and thunderstorm wind gusts near 60 MPH.

- Generally greater coverage of strong to severe storms will come both Saturday and Sunday nights. Hail up to the size of golf balls with damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 MPH may be possible within the strongest storms. An isolated tornado or two cant be ruled out.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns may arrive for a southwest portion of the area Sunday given strong southerly winds blowing near 20-30 MPH and gusting as high as 35-45 MPH.

- Temperatures ahead of a cold frontal passage early next week will keep highs in the mid 80s and 90s (through Sunday) before temporarily dropping down to the 60s to 70s by Tuesday. A steady increase in highs will likely follow through the end of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Friday: Scorching hot temperatures with a few afternoon storms (possibly severe) mainly east of Highway-281.

Storm chances will return each day this weekend across a portion of the area as the upper-level pattern turns more active. Beginning with a Central Plains approaching upper-level disturbance later tonight, surface pressure will fall in advance across much of central Kansas. A stationary front, setting up across central Kansas and southeast Nebraska today, will serve as the main lifting mechanism for afternoon storm development. Southerly winds on the east side of the surface low will pump up some moisture to much of eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska, saturating the air mass east of the surface boundary. (low-to- mid 50s dewpoints). As a result, the best ingredients for severe thunderstorm development will be concentrated across the eastern half of the area (up to 1,000-1,5000J/kg of CAPE & 30-40kts of Bulk Shear).

The best time frame for storm initiation along this boundary will occur between 5-8PM with storms quickly bubbling up along the stationary front as it meanders eastward during the rest of the afternoon and evening. As a result, the best potential for storms will fall across areas near and east of Highway-281. The probability of precipitation decreases sharply west of HWY-281. A slight risk of severe weather lies across an eastern portion of the area today (east of a line from Columbus to Aurora in Nebraska and down to Osborne in Kansas.) with a Marginal risk in place across the rest of our forecast area. The primary severe weather hazard this afternoon/evening will be large hail up to the size of ping pong balls and thunderstorm wind gusts up to near 60 MPH. Though a brief and more isolated tornado cant be completely ruled out of the window of uncertainty, the low-level shear environment appears to be more on the lower end of the spectrum (<150m^2s^2 of 0-1km SRH with CAPE <1,500J/kg & LCLs >2,000ft).

Beyond the evening storms, highs today (90s) will tick slightly higher than the day before as mostly sunny skies will allow the sun to shine bright today. Light easterly winds (5-10 MPH) will provide little in terms of providing much heat relief. Somewhat conservative dewpoints (<60 degrees) will, however, help heat indices from exceeding the mid 90s today. The heat risk for the day will remain in the Minor/Moderate classifications (level 1&2 of 4).

Saturday/Sunday: More widespread nighttime/overnight storm coverage (possibly severe)

Storm chances will return for the full area late Saturday night. Troughing in the upper levels across the western U.S. will begin to bite into the Central Plains over the weekend, sending in a few shortwave disturbances through the area. Though a few isolated weaker storms could get started earlier in the day Saturday and ahead of the main overnight wave/storm cluster, the biggest severe threat for Saturday will be concentrated during a broad 7PM-6AM time frame as a messy cluster of storms in mixed stages of development sweep through the region. This cluster of storms will feed off of a modest amount of instability (2,000-3,500J/kg of CAPE), shear (30-40kts of Bulk Shear) and surging moisture ahead of a northward lifting warm front (mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints). As a result, strong to severe storms will be possible to develop across the full area (slight risk of severe weather outlook for all of our south central Nebraska areas and for the northern half of our north central Kansas areas). The broad window of possibility (7PM-6AM) comes as short-term model guidance looks to point at the possibility of a few rounds of thunderstorm activity taking shape across the night. The main severe weather hazards will be hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 MPH. A few tornadoes may also be possible given the potential for storms to choose more of a scattered/discrete convective mode (supercells). At this point in time, tornado parameters look to just meet baseline criteria rather than point towards a more higher end sort of event (more so one or two generally weaker tornadoes possible).

A strengthening surface low across central Kansas/Nebraska Sunday will keep the modest instability (2,000-3,5000J/kg of CAPE) and increased moisture (50s to low 60s dewpoints) around for at least for one more day. In addition, the general troughing pattern west of the area will continue to move in closer to the Central Plains region. As a result, more thunderstorm activity will look to come again Sunday evening and night. The main uncertainty for where storms may initialize Sunday will be the north to south positioning of the surface low. The placement of the low will overall control where the fronts align and where the strongest lifting mechanisms will settle (cold front, warm front & dryline). Based on the latest trends, a more northward shift of the low hints at a further northward concentration of storm activity (best potential north of I-80). An enhanced risk of severe weather currently resides over all of south central Nebraska and far northern central Kansas with a slight risk covering the rest of our north central Kansas areas.

Beyond the storm chances Saturday/Sunday nights, temperatures will likely fall a few degrees shy of today on Saturday (highs in the mid 80s to low 90s) with a few more clouds and slightly stronger east to southeast winds (10-15 MPH with gusts as high as 25MPH). Even stronger southerly winds will be possible Sunday afternoon for mainly the southeast 2/3rds of the area (20-30MPH with gusts as high as 35-45 MPH possible). Even despite the weekend moisture resurgence, near-critical to critical fire weather concerns could still be possible across a few southern portions of the area (driest conditions towards the southwest). Highs Sunday will spread the upper 80s and 90s (mid to upper 90s for locations south and east of the Tri-Cities).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A weak inverted surface trough is working into south central Nebraska and north central Kansas late this afternoon. Moisture has increased slightly ahead of that feature with dewpoints near 50 degrees along Highway 24 in north central Kansas. High clouds spilling east have taken the top end off the temperatures today though it is still warm and above normal. To that end, there is some risk of an isolated storm, mainly across north central Kansas either side of 6 PM. However, shear is weak and warmer mid-level temperatures don't help. So, anything that does develop will be very limited in scope/coverage, and likely only marginally strong/severe at most. Higher-based wind producers would main hazard.

Friday is well above normal again with highs in the lower 90s as the region catching much more sunshine that today, though less wind. Winds will shift late in the afternoon across northern areas as front sags south. That front has bit more push than today, and will have more low level moisture as well. Areas east and south of Hastings look like a more favored area for a stronger/severe storm with both hail and wind the primary factors. The window of opportunity is fairly small, probably about 4-5 pm to 8-9 pm before storms move east and the surface front retreats.

The weekend is interesting from a weather standpoint, but also wrought with uncertainty. Most of the area is currently included in a slight to potentially enhanced risk of severe weather. The upper pattern is more favorable as a trough moves into the Rockies providing better dynamics and shear. Low level moisture will also increase though it could be a limiting factor at times, especially given the ground is so dry in some areas thanks to D3/D4 drought. While there are substantially higher rain...and there will be rain...it may not rain everywhere, nor is it a rain out. In fact, we are forecasting near 100 degree temperatures Sunday, and that doesn't exactly say lots of clouds/rain. Right now, the favored times for storms are Saturday night and Sunday night, while the days trend toward more dry. Saturday night seems to have the best potential for an organized line of storms or series of storms with severe potential. There is lots of uncertainty with this forecast and it is going to change with time so stay tuned.

The other thing of interest, but also uncertainty, is the heat and potential fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon. Even with green up in some areas, the 100 degree heat potential would translate into extremely low relative humidity Sunday afternoon along with strong winds. However, if convection from the previous night/early morning areas occurs, it could alter the low level moisture/wind set up. Still 72 hours away, this is something to watch with time. FYI, the current high temperature forecast for Sunday would be record breaking for Grand Island and Hastings.

On Monday, a strong front moves through and that could bring one final opportunity for more organized thunderstorms. After that, temperatures are much closer too or even below normal for the middle of next week. Rain chances will be retreating at the same time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to retain at KEAR through the period with a limited chance of storms (20-30% chance) between 22-0z that could briefly impact ceilings/visibility at KGRI. Any storm that does develop later this afternoon to early evening will quickly move away from the area, leaving a fairly short window of impact.

Winds today and tonight will for the most part remain light (gusts less than 15kts). Wind directions in the morning will begin somewhat variable with northwest winds gradually transitioning to northeasterly oriented winds by tonight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.