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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Predominantly dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected through at least the end of the weekend.

- A couple thundershowers are possible but not favored (10%) for our far northeastern areas Thursday and Friday mornings.

- High temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s are anticipated through this weekend, with overnight lows primarily in the 50s. Weekend overnight lows will likely stay in the 60s.

- Breezy conditions are expected Friday through Sunday, likely peaking with gusts of 30 - 40 mph on Saturday.

- Next real rain chances look to arrive around next Tuesday in association with our next large-scale wave aloft. Trends in more precise arrival time will be monitored.

WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK

Warm high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with overnight lows only bottoming out in the mid 60s, are expected for Saturday and Sunday. Recent NBM guidance has struggled to resolve these higher temperatures, and thus more widespread 80s may be possible this weekend should temperatures continue to exceed NBM guidance. Despite some subtle vorticity advection late on Saturday, dry profiles are favored to stave off rain entirely this weekend.

Saturday will likely be the windiest day upcoming as the western Dakotas surface low from Friday deepens to sub-1000 mb. Sustained winds of 15 - 25 mph and gusts spiking into the 30 - 40 mph range are possible in response to this low. Winds will calm slightly on Sunday with gusts falling back to 20 - 30 mph as the Dakotas low dies off.

There remains some timing uncertainty given the range we're at, but the next longwave trough and more organized rainfall chances look to arrive around next Tuesday. Latest trends have slowed the progression of this wave, and thus should this trend continue, Wednesday may be a likelier arrival time for the next round of organized rain.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions forecast to continue on across the area through this TAF period. Little in the way of cloud cover is expected...anything passing through would be confined to the upper levels. Light/variable winds are forecast to continue through much of tonight, turning more northerly closer to sunrise, then more northeasterly mid-morning on through the end of this period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.


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