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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Gorgeous weather to end the week with highs on Friday in the 60s to 70s amidst plentiful sunshine and relatively light wind

- Fire weather concerns, while not completely zero simply due to how dry it has been, are expected to remain below critical levels due to those light winds.

- Transition to cooler weather on Saturday, but especially Sunday through early next week when several chances

- Along with the colder air will come several chances for precipitation, beginning on Sunday and continuing into the middle of next week. Light snow/wintry mix may bring minor impacts on Sunday, particularly from around the Tri Cities and points to the E and SE. Confidence on details thereafter remain very low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Outside of it being breezy, in spots, can't ask for much nicer weather for late February as temperatures are in the 60s area wide, amidst plentiful sunshine. We are hitting near critical to even borderline critical conditions at a few spots this afternoon, but this should be short-lived.

Very pleasant and even warmer conditions are expected on Friday, with more of the area rising into the 70s. Even better is that winds are forecast to actually weaken through the daytime hours and be only 5-15 MPH during the afternoon.

We'll begin to see some larger scale pattern changes commence on on Saturday. A cold front will back into the area and keep NE zones stuck in the 40s. S/SW zones should still warm nicely into the lower 60s. As with any daytime frontal passage and increasing cold air advection there's going to be a risk of a forecast temperature "bust". Should remain dry one more day, though, and sun will help offset the cooler temps.

The next chance for precipitation arrives on Sunday. We will be on the northern periphery of this system, which almost always begs the question of how much will dry air eat away at the northern extent of the main QPF shield. Wave also appears to remain fairly open and quick-hitting. Guidance has shown some decent run-to-run consistency that SE quarter of the CWA has the highest chances for moisture. Thermodynamic profiles suggest it could be a mixed bag for precip types - so pinning down specific impacts is tough. At any rate, with us being on the edge of an open-wave system and having some dry air to deal with makes me think overall amounts of whatever precip type will remain on the light side. Temps will remain chilly into Monday.

A series of waves will traverse the region off and on through the middle of next week, keeping nearly daily precip chances in the forecast. Confidence on details remains very low at this time. For now, ensembles keep most of these systems on the weaker/lighter/quick-hitting side of things, but this could change. Temperatures are favored to be in the 40s to lower 50s, but these could also change depending on the magnitude of the disturbances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 511 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period, with little in the way of cloud cover expected. Winds will diminish in speed this evening, turning more west- southwesterly overnight. Another push of NWrly winds is expected for the midday-afternoon hours...some gusts near 20 MPH will be possible.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.


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