textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions area-wide into early this evening (Red Flag Warning has been expanded to our ENTIRE forecast area through 8 PM).

- Although increasingly-likely that our forecast area will be slightly-spared any severe storm threat this afternoon-early evening (albeit could be a VERY close call especially in the Thayer County vicinity), a few weak storms could still affect our extreme southeast counties through mid- afternoon. - Multiple rounds of showers/storms possible (40-85%) Friday night- Monday morning, with the overall highest chances (60-85%) on Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Southerly winds remain breezy this morning, gusting 25-35mph ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front currently located along an Ord-Cozad line will push east/southeast across the area this morning, reaching the Tri-Cities around sunrise, and the Highway 81 corridor during the late morning hours-noon. A few scattered showers/weak storms are possible along and ahead of the front through the morning hours.

Overall, models remain on track with the faster frontal progression (timing as stated above), with strong/severe storms developing east of the area (all 00z HREF members develop storms 25+ miles east of the area). Still, there remains a low chance for scattered thunderstorms to develop along the front during the early afternoon hours before the cold front exits southeastern portions the area. CAPE and shear values would be sufficient for these storms to quickly become severe, capable of all hazards. The window for severe potential looks to be short and limited to far east/southeastern portions of the area (areas along/southeast of a Hebron-Beloit line).

Cooler but still seasonably warm weather is expected behind the front with highs in the 70s. A drier airmass will also be in place, with afternoon relative humidity values falling into the teens. Breezy west-norththwesterly winds gusting 20-30mph are expected, strongest west of Highway 281. The breezy winds and low humidity will result in critical fire weather conditions across western portions of the area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect 10am to 8pm today. Widespread near-critical to briefly critical fire weather conditions are possible outside of the warning, especially in counties bordering the Red Flag Warning. Lows tonight will drop into the 30s and 40s, coldest across northwestern portions of the area where patchy frost is possible.

A broad upper level low will sit over the northern Rockies/Plains on Friday. Dry weather is expected during the daytime hours with highs in the 60s and 70s. Lighter winds (gusts 20mph or less) keep fire weather concerns low despite afternoon relative humidity values of 15-25%. Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track with multiple rounds of precipitation moving through the area Friday night-Monday morning. The overall highest chances look to be on Sunday, with scattered to widespread rain across the area. Accumulations of 0.50"-1.00" are possible in areas that see multiple rounds of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 439 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday (10 AM-8 PM) for roughly the northwest half of our CWA. This MIGHT actually be our last critical fire weather concern for several days, which would be welcomed! Please refer to separate Fire Weather section below for all further discussion on this topic.

- Decreasing severe thunderstorm threat for Thursday afternoon- evening: What a change 24 hours has made! Yesterday, various forecast models slowed down the passage of Thursday's cold front/dryline...seemingly bringing at least the eastern one- third to perhaps one-half of our CWA "under the gun" for a severe storm threat during the afternoon-evening. However, overnight model runs (and continuing into today) have abruptly sped up this front again...in turn firing up any severe storms at least SLIGHTLY east-southeast of our CWA altogether. Out of an abundance of caution, SPC has for now maintained an official Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for a few of our far east- southeast counties on their latest Day 2 outlook, but they did shift the western edges of their Marginal Risk (level 1) to the east of Hwy 281. IN SUMMARY: barring a surprising "last minute" shift back west (unlikely but cannot totally rule it out just yet), the threat for severe storms in our CWA on Thursday appears to have diminished quite a bit versus 24 hours ago.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Wed. April 29): -- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM: Overall, today has turned out very much as expected: Windy (southerly gusts 30-40 MPH with spotty 45 MPH) and warm, with highs on track to top out mainly 80-86 degrees. It's also remained rain/storm-free.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm the onset of a more active weather pattern these next several days, as we are under increasing southwesterly flow aloft...downstream from a potent shortwave trough/closed low currently churning through the Northern Rockies. Down at the surface, the pressure gradient has really tightened up across our Central Plains region today, driven by a strong (roughly 990 millibar) low pressure center over eastern MT, which has in turn kicked up our stout southerly winds.

- THIS EVENING (mainly pre-midnight): The vast majority of our CWA will surely remain dry and continued windy/breezy out of the south (gusts at least 25-35 MPH even after dark), as a surface trough/weak cold front slowly approaches our area from the west-northwest. Technically, the EXTREME western fringes of our CWA (mainly western Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) remain under a Marginal Risk for a rogue severe storm via the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook, and we are carrying some low-end chances/PoPs to cover this possibility. However, high-res models (HRRR/NAMNest) strongly suggest that the vast majority of this activity should remain at least 25-50 miles west of our CWA altogether...with storms tracking more north than east. That being said, we will have to keep an eye on our western fringes...just in case a non-zero thunderstorm threat does materialize.

- LATE OVERNIGHT (post midnight): As the early morning hours go by, the surface cold front will gradually invade our CWA from west-to-east...reaching roughly halfway through by sunrise. Ahead of this boundary, southerly winds will remain breezy but gradually diminish in speed, while behind the boundary breezes will switch to out of the northwest.

As for rain/thunderstorm chances, odds still favor MOST areas staying dry. That being said, some fairly weak elevated instability (rooted mainly above 800 millibars) could spark some isolated/scattered showers and possibly some weak thunderstorms. These could occur almost anywhere in our CWA, but appear to MOSTLY favor counties along/north of I-80. That being said, chances are currently no higher than 20-40%.

As for low temps, they will hold up well into the upper 50s-low 60s most places (aided in part by a large mass of low clouds expected to overspread most of our CWA), with some cooler low- mid 50s sneaking into only our far west-northwest counties around/just after sunrise as drier air moves in there first.

- THURSDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING: As already highlighted above, the faster passage of the frontal boundary/dryline represent a fairly big change versus expectations from 24 hours ago.

The morning starts with lingering low-level clouds mainly over the eastern 1/3 of our CWA, while mid-high level clouds linger central/west. There MIGHT be a few lingering showers/weak storms over our eastern counties in the morning-early afternoon as well, but these appear to be far from "soaking rains". Out of caution as much as anything (and in line with SPC Day 2 Outlook), we linger some small thunderstorm chances into our far east-southeast counties during the late afternoon-early evening, but latest HRRR/NAMNest focus most all severe potential now 25-50 miles east-southeast of our CWA altogether.

In other departments: The post-frontal west-northwesterly breezes will take over our entire area, generally sustained 10-20 MPH/gusting 15-30 MPH (highest west/weakest east). High temps were changed very little, ranging mid-upper 70s north/west to low 80s south/southeast.

- THURSDAY LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Any thunderstorm chances that might have existed quickly wane, with skies becoming mostly clear in the wake of the passing upper disturbance. Northerly breezes will average at least 5-10 MPH, which will keep temps from "tanking" too far, but still lows will be quite a bit cooler than tonight...aimed from mid- upper 30s northwest to low-mid 40s southeast (very low chance for a little frost far northwest around Ord?...not currently in official forecast).

- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: The vast majority of the day-early evening looks dry as breezes shift from northerly to more easterly. High temps aimed 60s north to low-70s south. However, already by early evening and especially overnight, some low-end rain/weak thunderstorm chances arrive from the west...mainly targeting our northern counties per latest model data.

- SATURDAY-SUNDAY: While not a non-stop rain situation by ANY means, this will be an overall-active few days as another large-scale shortwave trough gradually approaches/invades our region from the west- southwest. Although rain chances/PoPs are at least no higher than 50% for Saturday, they still might be overdone. However, more widespread and higher-confidence chances arrive Sunday- Sunday night with the main wave...during which time much of our area COULD pick up at least 0.50-1.00" of rain. Although far too early to pinpoint details, at least our southern counties MAY need monitored for a strong to severe storm threat mainly Sunday...although this would appear to mainly be an elevated storm threat (meaning mainly hail). High temps both days aimed mainly 60s, with lows mainly upper 30s-40s.

- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Various, intermittent chances for rain shower and mainly weak thunderstorms continue, as our flow aloft remains quasi-zonal (west-east) before turning more southwesterly mid-week. Temperatures continue to lean at least slightly toward the cooler side (especially compared to lately), with highs aimed mainly upper 50s-upper 60s...and lows mainly mid 30s-mid 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Extremely high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and precipitation-free conditions through the period, with fairly- breezy winds this afternoon-evening being the only real aviation concern.

Sustained west-northwesterly speeds this afternoon-early evening will prevail 15-20KT/gusts around 25KT. By around 01Z a weak boundary dropping in from the north will turn direction more northerly, with gusts at least 20-25KT still likely through at least 04Z (could even have brief gusts to 30KT). Winds will certainly be lighter during the latter half of the period late tonight through Friday morning (mainly 10KT or less) as direction remains northerly most of the time, but starts to turn more easterly from late-morning into early afternoon especially at KEAR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1035 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- 1030 AM UPDATE REGARDING REST OF TODAY: The Red Flag Warning previously in effect for roughly the northwest half of our forecast area (CWA) has since been expanded to now include our ENTIRE forecast area (in effect until 8 PM). The main forecast change that prompted this expansion is that wind speeds/gusts were increased as much as 5 MPH versus previous forecast. More specifically, much of the day into early evening will feature sustained winds out of the west-northwest 15-25 MPH, with gusts commonly up to around 30 MPH (even 35 MPH especially in our northern/western counties). The relative humidity (RH) forecast has changed little...with our entire forecast area expected to drop to at least 10-15 percent behind a passing cold front.

The most "marginal" counties in the Warning (least likely to solidly meet criteria for 3+ hours) are those in our extreme southeastern CWA (particularly Thayer/Jewell/Mitchell counties). However, with at least brief critical conditions a good bet even in those counties, opted to expand to our entire CWA out of caution.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019.