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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated weak thunderstorms possible across southern Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties through the early overnight hours.
- Isolated-scattered thunderstorms possible along a cold frontal passage Friday evening/night. A few of these storms could be strong/severe.
- Active weather continues into the weekend with off and on thunderstorm chances.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
This Afternoon/Tonight...
Scattered showers have largely come to an end across the area, though isolated activity can't be ruled out across far southeastern portions of the area. Further northwest lingering stratus is favored to gradually clear throughout the afternoon-early evening hours. Scattered thunderstorm redevelopment along/north of a cold front in Kansas could clip southern portions of Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties during the late evening-early overnight hours. Otherwise mostly clear skies are expected overnight with lows in the mid 60s.
Thursday...
Largely zonal flow aloft continues across the central U.S. on Thursday. Highs will be near their climatological normals, in the low 80s. Breezy southerly winds gusting 20-30mph are expected during the afternoon hours across northwest portions of the area. Overall a fairly pleasant September day is in store for the area.
Friday...
Temperatures climb into the upper 80s-low 90s on Friday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Southerly winds will be breezy during the day, gusting 25-30mph, strongest for areas northeast of the Tri- Cities. The breezy southerly flow will also help to advect moisture into the area ahead of an approaching cold front with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s-low 70s. Isolated-scattered thunderstorm development is possible during the late evening-overnight hours along the cold front. There is some uncertainty how far south storms will be able to develop given weaker forcing (front further from surface low) and stronger capping. Still, at least isolated development is possible across the area. If storms do form, 2000+ J/Kg of CAPE and 30kts of shear would support strong/severe thunderstorms. The cold front will gradually move into the area during the overnight hours with winds becoming northerly behind the front.
This Weekend Onwards...
The aforementioned cold front looks to stall out across southern portions of the area during the day on Saturday. North of the front, cooler and breezy conditions are expected with highs in the upper 80s south of the front. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along/north of the front during the afternoon/evening hours on Saturday, some of which may be strong-severe though impacts remain uncertain given spread in model guidance on the placement of the front. Off and on thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the forecast period as a series of disturbances move thorugh the area. Highs will vary, ranging from the low 70s to the low 90s depending on the timing of frontal passages.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be around 5 knots out of the northeast to north this evening into tonight. Winds will become more variable late tonight (closer to 12z) before switching to the southeast by 15z. Winds will increase to around 10 knots out of the southeast by/around 18z with gusts up to around 15 knots.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None. KS...None.
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