textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A handful of showers with a few non-severe storms may be possible to develop across the area Friday afternoon (15-25% chances). The coverage of these showers should be more spotty and shorter-lived than consistent.

- The potential for severe weather will return mainly Saturday evening to night. A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather is in place across the full area.

- The strongest storms mainly across the overnight hours Saturday will likely possess strong to damaging wind gusts with a few pockets of large hail. An isolated tornado or two may also be possible.

- Heavy rainfall rates from the storms Saturday night may lead to local rainfall rates of up to 2-3+". The Tri-cities areas currently has an around 90% chance to receive at least 1", 80% chance to receive at least 2" and a 35% chance to see 3+".

- Highs for the start and middle of next week will mainly range the 70s to low 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Tonight and Friday....

With the last of this morning's spotty showers now gone from the area, the rest of the afternoon and night will be precipitation free. In addition, clearing skies with light to calm winds will allow overnight temperatures to fall to as low as the mid 50 to lower 60s tonight. Aloft, the upper level jet rests right overhead with broad ridging across the western CONUS and broad troughing across the eastern CONUS. The help of an upstream Pacific shortwave trough and the strengthening western U.S. ridge will later nudge the jet east. This Pacific trough will be responsible for some severe weather and potentially heavy rainfall implications later this week (Saturday night).

As for Friday, light southerly winds will reestablish at the surface. Highs, however, should not deviate much from today (low to mid 80s: a degree or two warmer from today). A few areas of showers and non-severe thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon as some moisture surges northward up from the south (15-25% chances across the area). The latest high resolution model guidance (HRRR/RAP/NAMNEST) does not pin point much in terms of precipitation amounts (<0.05"). These showers, though far stretching across the area, should be fairly small and more shorter-term lived and spotty in coverage (sort of like a more hear and there type of deal).

Saturday...

Similar temperatures Saturday (upper 70s to mid 80s highs) will be accompanied by slightly stronger southeasterly winds blowing between 10-15MPH and gusting up to 20-30MPH. the strongest winds will be concentrated to the west or across areas closer to the surface pressure falls (weak surface low forming over east CO and west KS). The main story, however, will be the potential for severe weather Saturday evening and night as well as the risk of heavy rainfall that could effect some hydro concerns. A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) now covers the full area Saturday night.

The aforementioned Pacific shortwave trough across the next 2 days will make a run over the Rockies and into the Central Plains Saturday afternoon. This disturbance should help initiate some afternoon and overnight storms, initially expected to form across the Nebraska sandhills region. These (potentially severe) storms would be steered east/southeastward and into the area by the evening to probably more likely overnight period. Conditions wise, up to 3,000J/kg of MUCAPE with 25-45kts of bulk shear should be favorable enough to help sustain these storms through the night. The primary hazards that will be possible will be for strong and potentially damaging gusty winds with areas of large hail possible in a few places. A tornado or two also can't be ruled out given what looks to be a favorable low-level shear (helicity) profile.

The other concern that may need to be monitored closely will be excessive rainfall for Saturday night. The cluster of storms that are expected to track across our forecast area will likely bring heavy rainfall rates as a southerly orientated moisture flux increases the precipitable water content (1.6-2.5" PWATs). Our forecast for precipitation amounts overnight Saturday currently projects at least 1" across the board with a fairly wide swath of 2- 3+" rainfall amounts placed right down the center of the area. For the Tri-Cities area, the NBM currently projects around a 95% chance for at least 1" of precipitation, around 80% chance for at least 2" and around 35% chance for 3+ inches. The WPC has additionally upgraded a majority of the area now into a Moderate level 3 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook (>40% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point). Due to the lack of consistent model trends so far, the desire to issue a flood watch this shift was forgone. If our current forecast continues to hold consistent, however, it is likely that we may need to include a considerable portion of the area into a Flood watch for Saturday night.

Sunday and Beyond....

Temperatures through the middle of next week look to remain somewhat stable. Highs are currently forecast to cool down to the 70s by Monday, with highs staying mainly in the 70s to low 80s through the middle of next week. The long range forecast model guidance (GFS/ECMWF) both appear to be hinting at a second shortwave disturbance passing through the area sometime Monday through Wednesday. This disturbance will likely bring yet another chance for a few storms in and out of the area. Confidence drops off substantially after Sunday as timing of any potential precipitation diverges between the models.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

No significant aviation hazards are expected across the next 24 hours. Skies should remain ceiling free (few to scattered) with bases not threatening any sort of non VFR conditions. Visibilities are also expected to remain >6SM. Precipitation will be highly unlikely through the night with a broad 10-20% chance after 12z (not enough confidence yet for even a PROB30 group mention at this time.

Winds out of the north to northwest this afternoon will continue to gust up to 20-25kts until weakening this evening and tonight. Speeds between 0-15z are expected to remain mostly calm and variable as directions gradually spin clockwise and around towards a south-southeastely direction for Friday afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.