textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- In the wake of departing rain, dry weather is likely across our entire forecast area through at least Sunday night, and probably through at least Tuesday. - In the wake of a cold front, blustery north-northwest winds will prevail overnight into much of Friday daytime before becoming much lighter late afternoon-early evening. Gusts as high as at least 40-45 MPH likely at times especially some areas north of I-80.

- As winds become light Friday night-early Sat AM, we are almost certainly headed toward our first widespread frost of the season, and probably also at least a "soft freeze" between 29-32 degrees for most places. A Freeze Watch has been issued for our entire area.

- After one more day with highs only in the 50s on Friday, temperatures gradually warm into the 60s and eventually 70s over the next several days.

- Although still a TON of uncertainty this far out in time, at least low chances for rain return to our area by next Wed- Thurs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain from this morning is moving out of our area to the northeast with drier conditions now expected for most of the area, though some sprinkles could still fall in our northwestern areas. A cold front currently over the Sandhills will move southeast over our area this afternoon bringing steady north-northwesterly winds that could gust 30-40 MPH and clearing the clouds. While temps cool slightly behind the front, the steady winds prevents the temps from falling underneath the frosting threshold overnight for the majority of the area, with lows staying in the upper 30s-low 40s. A few portions in our north and west do drop into the frost thresholds, however the steady winds will prevent frost from forming.

The steady north-northwesterly winds continue through the daytime Friday bringing cool air down from the north and keeping highs in the low-mid 50s. Northern and eastern portions of the area will have some clouds in the morning but they clear in the afternoon. After sunset the winds begin to subside and with clear skies, temperatures are able to cool much more efficiently than the night before. Widespread lows in the upper 20s-low 30s are possible which would bring the first frost/freeze to the area. Southern portions of the area, especially north central KS, could stay warm enough to prevent a full freeze however, most models keep temps in the 30-34 range so the entire area is included in a Freeze Watch.

The upper level troughing that had brought the cooler air to the area begins to move east and a slight ridging pattern begins to setup into the weekend. As the ridging pattern builds into the area, temperatures will begin to warm again starting Saturday with highs reaching back into the upper 50s-low 60s. Temperatures continue to warm into next week with highs reaching the upper 60s-70s starting Sunday and could even flirt with 80 degrees in north central Kansas mid-week. Also, as the ridging persists over the area precip chances will remain low, though some models have chances returning mid-week. Aside from the low mid-week precip chances the area will largely remain dry through the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 722 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence in VFR visibility and precip-free weather throughout the entire period, and high confidence in VFR ceiling through a good majority of the period (main concern is a 4-6 hour "window of opportunity" for at least intermittent MVFR on Friday morning). Otherwise, moderately-strong north- northwesterly winds will prevail through most of the period at the surface (gusts commonly at least 25-30KT). In addition, moderately-strong low low level wind shear (LLWS) is in play through tonight into the first part of Friday daytime.

- Ceiling details/uncertainty: Extremely high confidence in not only VFR but also mostly clear skies through both the first several hours and final several hours of the period. However, the middle portion...particularly 09-15Z...carries a little more uncertainty as a batch of lower stratus currently over the Dakotas sinks southward into the area. Typically-reliable model guidance strongly suggests that at least a low-end VFR ceiling between 3-4K ft. AGl is likely during this time (and perhaps for a few hours beyond 15Z). However, the "wild card" is whether some MVFR sneaks in as well. This possibility appears to carry just enough weight that a TEMPO group for at least intermittent MVFR has been included for 10-14Z. Beyond especially 18Z and into the afternoon, very high confidence VFR returns as skies again steadily clear.

- Wind details: - Surface winds: The vast majority of the period will feature fairly consistent and moderately-strong north-northwest winds...commonly sustained around 20KT and gusting at least 25-30KT. However, a gradual decrease in speeds will commence during the afternoon...especially noticeable after 21Z...with sustained speeds decreasing to no more than 5-10KT by the very end of the period.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): Despite the already moderately-strong surface winds, even more intense north-northwesterly winds of at least 45-50KT will prevail slightly above the surface (particularly between 1,500-2,000K ft. AGL) throughout the night and into the first part of Friday daytime...promoting at least 30KT of low level shear magnitude through much of this time. As a result, previously introduced LLWS has not only been maintained in latest TAFs, but also extended a few hours until 14Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019.