textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A few storms (potentially a few severe) will race into to a few mainly western portions of the area this afternoon/evening.

- Less intense and more general thunderstorms could linger around a few northern portions of the area overnight tonight into Monday morning.

- The next potential for severe weather could come Tuesday. A passing cold front may initialize a cluster of storms that may be capable of producing large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.

- Thunderstorm chances return each day beyond Tuesday this week, though narrowing confidence keeps details more limited for now.

- Highs will mainly stick around the 70s to low 80s through the first half of the week with a warmup possible across the second half of the week (temperatures possible to return back to the mid 80s to lower 90s by Saturday).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Tonight...

Following yesterday and last night's scattered storms, a band of low- level stratus continues to blanket a majority of the area. This cloud coverage has helped keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s for today. The main concern of the day will be from the presence of a mid-to-upper level shortwave disturbance that looms just northwest of the area. Though some question remains on how the excessive cloud coverage today may impact the instability, modeled soundings still continue to show an elongated profile of weak instability through much of the low-to-mid levels from the presence of steady lapse rates holding between 6-7C/km (contributing to 750-2,000J/kg of MUCAPE). In addition, a deep moist layer with 30-50kts of bulk shear this afternoon completes the base checklist needed for storms. The main detractor that may storms from reaching severe criteria would be from the presence of low-level convective inhibition (stable air) that storms would need to overcome.

Though activity may not be too widespread this afternoon/evening, a strong to marginally severe storm could still be feasible to break into the area from the west/northwest. A few storms, some of which severe, have already erupted this afternoon out across western Nebraska. These storms across the next several hours will march southeast and down into possibly a few western portions of the area. The main uncertainty will be how long lasting those storms will remain severe as they march towards a slightly less favorable environment (some question to how the cloud coverage earlier today may of inhibited the storm environment). As result, the main severe threat will be more concentrated closer to the west/southwest portions of the area between the 5-10PM window. The primary storm hazards from these storms will be hail up to the size of ping pong balls with gusty winds near 60MPH. Though an isolated tornado could be feasible, generally the threat remains low given the fact that storms are expected to be on the downward trend as they arrive from the west.

In addition to the severe storms racing in from the Nebraska sandhills this evening, a mesolow moving down into northern Nebraska tonight may offer up a few more weaker thunderstorms and showers. These storms will drop down into a few northern portions of the area overnight (mainly into a few places north of I-80). The mesolow will gradually drift east through the morning hours on Monday, collecting any last last remaining storm with it.

Monday and Tuesday...

Pressure rises Monday from the exit of the shortwave disturbance will help snuff out most precipitation chances for Monday, although a spotty or isolated shower/storm coming in from the northwest can't be totally ruled out. Besides the low precipitation chance, highs will remain fairly similar from today (70s), although a few spots in north central Kansas could overachieve expectations and reach the low 80s. Winds will be expected to remain light (5-15MPH) under the influence of higher pressure with wind directions out of the southeast.

The potential for severe weather could return Tuesday as another shortwave trough sneaks into the greater Northern Plains region. Several medium to long range models including the NAM, ECMWF and GFS are starting to narrow down on the conclusion for a later morning to early afternoon MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) developing along a southeastward passing cold front. The current projection of this system has been mainly confined to initialize somewhere across northwest to north central Nebraska area, moving towards the southeast through the rest of the day. Though CAPE may be somewhat limited across the early portions of the day (500-2,000J of MUCAPE possible), 40-55kts of bulk shear with dewpoints in the 60s (from the influence of the south to southeasterly surface winds), may be supportive enough for storms to develop strong to severe criteria (>1" hail or >58MPH wind gusts).

The SPC has included the full area in a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe weather outlook for Tuesday with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) clipping mainly Rooks county in our north central Kansas forecast area. The main uncertainty at this point in time is knowing where/when the thunderstorms fire Tuesday. Depending on the speed of the front and the time of day that storms initialize, the severe risk could change. Otherwise, highs are expected to remain in the 70s to low 80s as some sort of cloud coverage is possible to remain around a majority of the area (keeping the potential for widespread coverage of 80+ degree temperatures low).

Wednesday and Beyond...

The potential for a pop up or scattered thunderstorm/showers returns almost every day in the long-range forecast, although the best potential lies Wednesday night (30-60% chances) and Thursday night (40-60% chances). This seamanly wet period comes as an upper-level low across southwest Canada interacts with a southwest U.S. ridge. Numerous break/disturbance will break out of the upper-level flow, keeping the area underneath sporadic storm activity. Widening forecast confidence past Tuesday keeps detail limited for now for any specific individual day.

As far as temperatures go, the general trend is for highs to climb again, potentially reaching the 90s in a few areas by the end of the week. It is uncertain how the upper-level flow will break out of its more unstable pattern, though long-range ensemble forecasts tend to favor the exit of the low pressure over Canada around the middle of the week. This would leave some space for the southwest U.S. ridge build, potentially influencing a end of week warm up.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR ceilings favored to persist at KEAR through mid- morning. MVFR-IFR ceilings possible at KGRI during around 09-16z. Briefly MVFR Visibility possible at KEAR through at least 09z.

An IFR-MVFR stratus deck is building over KEAR, resulting in IFR conditions. Over time, MVFR ceilings will develop over KGRI. Model guidance favors IFR Ceilings remaining west of KGRI, though can't rule out a brief drop to IFR. Have included a TEMPO group at KGRI to account for this potential. MVFR-IFR stratus is favored to rise during the mid-late morning hours, first at KGRI then at KEAR. There is some uncertainty on how fast this transition to VFR occurs, but recent model guidance favors a faster transition so the timing of VFR was sped up. Once Ceilings become VFR late Monday morning/early afternoon, they are expected to prevail through the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be light and east-southeasterly overnight, becoming southeasterly after sunrise and increasing to 8-10kts during the afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.