textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Expecting mainly dry conditions for much of the day today, though chances for isolated-scattered will increase late afternoon-evening across NWrn portions of the area. Not out of the question that a few storms could be strong-severe...with damaging winds gusts being the primary hazard.

- Forecast highs for today are a slight bump up from Sunday, with low 90s expected. Winds will continue to be southerly, with gusts during the day of 25-30 MPH possible.

- Tuesday looks to be dry, with preciptiation chances returning Wednesday on into the weekend...as a messy upper level pattern develops across the CONUS. Confidence in finer details of those chances is not high at this point. Potential for severe weather at this point looks to be on the lower side, as upper level flow may be weak.

UPDATE

Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Currently...

Forecast area is sitting under quiet conditions early this morning...the scattered showers and thunderstorms that had moved in from the west late Sunday afternoon diminished as they pushed east, ending during the early evening hours. Looking aloft...weak, generally westerly flow remains in place across the area, with the disturbance that helped to spark that activity on Sunday over eastern SD. Elsewhere across the CONUS...broad troughing from low pressure near the Hudson Bay area is pushing closer to the central/northern East Coast...while out west, one disturbance is currently set up over the CA/Mex border area, with a larger area of low pressure gradually sinking south along the Canadian west coast. Not much change with the surface pattern across the region, with the forecast area sitting between troughing along the High Plains and high pressure over most of the Midwest. This is keeping winds southerly...at still on the breezy side, with gusts near 20-25 MPH at times.

Today through Tuesday...

Overall, hasn't been any significant changes in things for the start of the new work week...with the main chances (though they aren't great) coming later today. Models continue to show a similar story to Sunday...with the daytime hours mainly dry. Upper level flow is expected to remain on the weaker side, turning more southwesterly with time through this evening as that disturbance over the CA/Mex border pushes into the Four Corners region. Expecting another breezy day today...with little change in the sfc pattern, if anything the trough axis does shift a bit east closer to our WNWrn edges. Gusts near 20-30 MPH will again be possible...with the strongest speeds across central/ESE areas further away from that sfc boundary. Skies looking to again be mostly clear-partly cloudy...with another bump up in high temperatures, with low-90s forecast. As we get into the mid-late afternoon/peak heating hours...there will be the potential for some isolated-scattered thunderstorms to develop near that sfc boundary...again coverage being on the sparse side due to weak forcing. MLCAPE values also look to be similar to Sunday with values exceeding 1000-1500 j/kg possible, mainly across NNW areas, then decreasing further south. Not that deeper layer shear yesterday was anything to get too excited about, models continue to show values today being even lower...showing that even getting 20kts of shear may be a struggle. That all being said, still not out of the question that a few storms could be on the strong-marginally severe side...driven mainly by the potential for stronger wind gusts. What activity does develop is shown by models to wane during the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating...leaving the rest of the night dry.

The forecast remains dry for Tuesday...with the start of a messy upper level pattern developing across the CONUS. Models are showing the forecast area sitting under SSErly flow aloft...set up between the larger area of low pressure which continues sinking south along the West Coast, phasing in that disturbance over the Four Corners region, resulting in troughing extending SEward into the Srn Plains...and a ridge axis extending across the Dakotas/Midwest. Tuesday will be another breezy day out of the south- southeast...sustained speeds near 15-25 MPH and gusts of 25-30 will again be possible. Models show a slight cooldown in the airmass across the region...forecast highs for Tuesday are a touch lower, but still above normal in the mid-upper 80s.

Mid-Week On Through the Weekend...

Overall confidence in the finer details of the forecast mid to late week remains on the lower side...things will be driven by how the blocked upper level pattern evolves, and differences between models still remain. Models showing an area of upper level low pressure sinking south into the extreme NErn CONUS mid-week, with another reinforcing low sinking south late-week into the weekend. With this and the large area of low pressure over the western CONUS...ridging gets sandwiched in between through the central CONUS...but exactly where the axis ends up is still in question. The highest precipitation chances through the latter periods remain in the late day Wednesday through Thursday time frame...driven by models showing a shortwave disturbance being able to shift NNE out of the Srn Plains. Will be interesting to see how models trend the next couple of days...some are less aggressive with QPF than others. During the late week-weekend period...confidence is even lower with how things will evolve, so preciptiation chances remain very broad, generally in the 20-50 percent range. Highs Wed-Sun remain mainly in the mid 70s-low 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Satellite shows an area of deepening cumulus over southwest Nebraska. This will be the area to monitor as it slides across central Nebraska and northern Kansas late this afternoon into early evening. CAMs indicate that coverage should remain pretty isolated, but convective parameters are favorable for a few of these to become strong to marginally severe (MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg and effective shear ~30kts). Relatively dry low levels would be favorable for downburst winds. This will likely be the primary hazard, although some severe hail cannot be completely ruled out as well. Any storms that develop should fade by 9-10pm with the loss of diurnal heating.

Monday will trend a few degrees warmer than today, and many areas are anticipated to reach the low 90s, aided by a steady south wind. Isolated storms are again possible, although CAMs indicate that this will be more favorable over the Sandhills, potentially nudging into northwestern portions of the forecast area. Shear is not impressive tomorrow, so an organized severe threat is even less likely than today.

Tuesday is favored to remain mostly dry, but rain/tstorm chances increase again Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday. This will be in response to a shortwave moving across the central Plains ahead of a deeper upper low over the west coast. Off and on chances for thunderstorms then continue through the end of the week as the upper low gradually ejects over the northern Plains. Unfortunately, the upper-level pattern is expected to be "messy" which makes it difficult to pin down specific details. But, as mentioned in the Key Messages, the severe threat does not look particularly threatening. The GEFS CSU-MLP severe probs remain below 5% through next week. This is probably partly influenced by uncertainty on timing/evolution of the upper level pattern, but is still well below climatology (~10%) for late May.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Currently have this period dry as well...there is the potential for iso-sct storms late this afternoon and early evening, but models are in pretty good agreement keeping the best chances off to the NW of the terminal areas. Winds are expected to remain southerly through the period...with the daytime hours again bringing gusty conditions, gusts near 25-30 MPH will be possible. Have LLWS sticking around for an hour right at the start of the period...then making a return between 04-10Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.