textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonably warm today and Tuesday.

- Good chances (50 to 70%) for thunderstorms return Wednesday and Thursday.

- A drier and hotter pattern returns for the weekend and lasts into the following week.

UPDATE

Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Overall changes are minimal from previous forecasts.

Today and Tuesday feature high temperatures in the low 90s for most areas as surface winds return to the south/southeast. Afternoon gusts range from 15-30 MPH (highest west). Confidence remains high in dry conditions through at least Tuesday evening.

There is still a low chance for a few thunderstorms to sneak in from the northwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but ensembles have trended drier for this period as compared to 24 hours ago.

An upper shortwave and surface frontal system will bring better chances for rain and thunderstorms to the entire area on Wednesday. These chances continue Thursday, but would favor western portions of the area more than the east. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but convective details remain uncertain at this range.

Overall, Friday has trended drier for most of the area, and this dry trend looks to continue into the weekend as upper level ridging builds over the west/central US. This will also be favorable for well-above-normal temperatures (highs in the upper 90s and 100s) at times through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The first part of the work-week is seasonal and dry. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Upper ridging will build in to the Central Plains from the Four Corners region for the first half of the work-week. A strong disturbance moving atop the ridge will break it down and upper level flow will become more zonal by midweek.

The return to more zonal type flow will allow for an increase precipitation chances for the second half of the work-week. Lee troughing will cause a front to develop across the high plains. Model ensemble guidance indicates that the next upper wave will approach the area on Wednesday with the best precipitation potential (40-60% chance) on Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. The potential for precipitation exists for Thursday and Friday, but with less confidence. Thursday the best chances for precipitation look to be along the High Plains sliding southeast into Kansas with a 25-50% chance for central, south central and north central Kansas. It will depend on where an upper level disturbance tracks across the Central Plains. By Friday the potential for precipitation is closer to 20% for the area as the upper disturbance moves off to the east. As this occurs, ridging builds into the west. During the second half of the work week, temperatures are expected to be in the 80s, which is near to slightly below normal for early/mid July.

Moving into the end of the forecast period, next weekend, and beyond. Much of the model guidance including the ensemble guidance indicates a potentially significant heat wave. This is due to a high amplitude ridge building into the intermountain west. Ensemble mean Maximum Temperatures move close to the triple digit mark, especially as we move into the next work-week. Details will change, but current grand ensemble values show 20% chance of the max temperature exceeding 100 degrees on Monday the 13th, and 40% chance of the max temperature exceeding 100 degrees on the 14th. This period is something to watch for extreme heat.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 553 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (95%) through the period with only a few afternoon cumulus.

Winds return to the south today. Afternoon gusts near 20kts are possible, especially at EAR.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.