textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm start to a mild week Christmas Holiday week with Monday's high temperatures reaching 70 degrees at some locations. - Still expecting very mild, even record breaking temperatures for some locations Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, BUT there are hints at potential early low clouds/fog impacts, which may result in cooler temperatures for other locations.

- The dry forecast continues through next Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

As expected, a solid south/southwest wind today has developed on the back side of surface high pressure over Illinois. Winds will continue to gust the rest of the afternoon and into the early evenings. Winds will drop off quicker over western areas overnight as weak lee troughing develops, but could hold up fairly steady to the east. Low temperatures will likely reflect the wind at any one location...colder where winds drop and a bit warmer where winds remain. Yet, lows will largely be 10-15 degrees above normal.

Monday = Big warmup across the area. One interesting feature is the fact it will be warmer across northern Nebraska than parts of southern Nebraska and north central Kansas, despite the fact temperatures aloft (H850) to the south are warmer (than the north). For example, we expect high temperatures to approach 70 at Ord but low 60s at Hebron or Mankato. It is mostly sunny all areas as well. Monday's high temperatures will be determined by the wind. High resolution models have been consistent with a stronger west wind coming out of the Nebraska Sandhills region and pushing east. That favorable compressional downslope warming will soar temperatures to 70 degrees in those areas. A similar thing happens in western areas from Dawson down to Furnas county. But south/east of Hastings and into parts of north central Kansas, winds are not nearly as strong (light in fact) and from a southerly direction. Its still really nice but that explains the warmer surface temperatures expected to the north/west forecast and cooler temperatures south/east, despite the atmospheric thermal profile. Whether you like 62 with light winds, or 72 with a bit more wind, its still pretty nice for December 22nd.

Speaking of wind, a cold front will pass through the area Monday night either side of midnight shifting winds to the north and bring some cooler air. Winds will veer through the day Tuesday settling in from the south by Tuesday evening. With a mix of clouds/sun, highs will be noticably cooler than Monday (50s to around 60) but still nearly 20 degrees above normal. The frontal passage will be dry.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are still mild...but...there are trends developing to suggest at least minor changes to the temperature forecast may be coming. There may be some potential for low clouds and fog from low level moisture pushing north through eastern Kansas which could hamper the warm up for some areas, more likely east of US Highway 281. Its early, but the NAM, ECMWF and today's RRFS to a lesser degree all indicate some possible impact on temperatures. Winds are lighter both days, more southerly Christmas Eve, though more westerly (potentially) on Christmas Day. The trouble with any amount of low clouds or morning fog this time of year is the low sun angle, and the difficulty or inability to dissipate the low level moisture. Even if it does evaporate over a few hours, the residual moisture can still hamper an anticipated warm up. Ensembles have started to trend slightly cooler both days (few degrees), though still very mild and potentially record breaking. However, the forecast does reflect this slightly cooler trend by a couple degrees and is something to watch. Right now, it doesn't look like all of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas would be impacted by any clouds/fog that develop, but if it does happen, we could have a large temperature spread from west- to-east not currently reflected in the forecast. And to reiterate, its early, so trends of low clouds/fog will fluctuate and adjust with time, as will the resultant forecast. It is possible models could be overstating moisture return, or the very dry ground/ambient conditions could also negate some of the moisture influence.

The "cooler but still mild for December trend" is still on track for next weekend after a cold front passes. One of the more interesting things is, if the low clouds/fog hold down temperatures Christmas Day, we could actually be warmer Friday after the front due to a more favorable westerly flow and full sunshine. This is also point worth watching. Eventually, cold air will gradually deepen through the weekend with each day cooler than the previous. Can't totally rule some very light precipitation but ensembles continue to indicate the probability of total precipitation of 0.10" through Monday the 29th at less than 20%, so the forecast remains officially dry.

After the post Christmas cool down, ensembles and operational model runs both indicate a warm up to end the year (30th/31st) before colder and slightly more unsettled weather could influence the area the first few days of the New Year.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Model time heights in good agreement showing the brunt of cloud cover occurring over the first 6-9 hrs of the period, remaining in the upper levels...then diminishing through the rest of the period. Not expecting notable changes in winds, remaining southerly through the overnight hours around 15 MPH, turning a touch more southwesterly around sunrise Monday...speeds through the day around 10-15 MPH. Models continue to show the potential for LLWS at both terminal sites through most of the overnight hours.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1221 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Record highs Monday and Tuesday are 70ish or higher for Hastings and Grand Island and not likely to be broken.

Below are the records for December 24 and 25.

Record High (Maximum) Temperatures |Current Forecast Grand Island, NE

December 24th: 64 in 2021 | Forecast: 61 December 25th: 62 in 1999,1963,1922 | Forecast: 66 ---------------

Hastings, NE

December 24th: 66 in 1933 | Forecast: 62 December 25th: 62 in 1999,1950 | Forecast: 66

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Record High (Minimum) Temperatures |Current Forecast

Grand Island, NE

December 24th: 34 in 1936 | Forecast: 35 December 25th: 34 in 1959 | Forecast: 35 ---------------

Hastings, NE

December 24th: 33 in 2005,1955 | Forecast: 39 December 25th: 34 in 1922 | Forecast: 39

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.