textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions continues for our entire forecast area (CWA) through 9 PM. Another round of near-critical conditions appears likely on Friday afternoon mainly in our "southwestern quadrant", but beyond that, we should catch at least a several-days break from fire weather concerns (see separate Fire Weather section below for more details).

- A little patchy frost possible (not a "sure thing") in our far west-northwest CWA early Friday morning, but opted against a formal Advisory given the anticipated limited coverage/duration of any possible frost.

- A few weak thunderstorms possible mainly in our western- northern CWA Friday night.

- This weekend brings more widespread rain chances (MUCH- needed!), but perhaps also at least a limited/Marginal threat for severe storms mainly within the southern half of our CWA. Primary concern is Saturday and/or Sunday afternoon-evenings, but still a LOT of details to sort out as the HIGHEST regional severe weather risks should focus south of our CWA.

- Although there will certainly be lower/higher exceptions (there always are with thunderstorms involved), much of our CWA is currently expected to receive at least 0.50-1.00" of beneficial rain over the weekend.

- Temperature-wise: Much of the next 7 days will lean toward the slightly-cooler side by late April standards...with highs on most days between the upper 50s-low 70s..and lows on most nights between the upper 30s-mid 40s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 433 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Really no big changes of note from previous forecast.

- General comments on weekend severe storm potential: By FAR our main concern over the next 3-4 days will be assessing the possibility for at least a few severe storms mainly Saturday and/or Sunday afternoon-evenings. One of the main uncertainties involves IF (and if so) how far north a surface warm front might lift into our area. Especially on Saturday, it appears the main warm sector/instability axis should focus south of our CWA, keeping any possible severe threat in our CWA more along the lines of elevated hail storms. Sunday is obviously less-clear (and will likely depend somewhat on what happens Saturday night), but the warm front might TRY lifting north into our CWA, perhaps resulting in a somewhat- greater/more surface-based severe storm threat. Like Saturday though, any higher-end severe threat appears it should in theory focus at least slightly south of CWA. Plenty of details still to sort out, but at least at this Day 3-4 range, it's probable that any severe threat we do see should focus within the southern half of our CWA (counties south of I-80 and down into northern KS).

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Thurs. April 30): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM: Although it was a very close call (severe storms developed within 10-15 miles of our extreme eastern CWA), as has been expected here for at least 24 hours now, the southwest-northeast axis of severe storms along the cold front fired up SLIGHTLY east-through-southeast of our CWA...with numerous Warnings issued/ongoing within southeast NE/western IA...and probably soon to be eastern KS. Meanwhile, back here in our area, the cold front/dryline unsurprisingly packed a little more punch than expected in terms of wind speeds (gusts commonly 25-35 MPH out of the west-northwest) and also very low dewpoints/relative humidity (RH). Fortunately as of this writing we are not aware of any wildfire starts in our CWA, but a Red Flag Warning remains in effect CWA-wide through 9 PM (see separate fire weather section below for more).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, the southern fringes of disturbance extending southward from a large closed low spiraling over Montana northward into Canada is passing through the Central Plains, which in concert with the well-defined surface cold front/dryline has fired up the aforementioned severe storms to our east.

Under a varied mix of mostly sunny to mostly cloudy skies (any clouds of the mid-high level variety), high temps this afternoon are on track to top out 76-83 degrees across most of the CWA (if anything just a touch warmer than forecast).

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Our CWA remains dry, with any severe storms moving ever-farther away to our east-southeast, and any potential for chilly rain/snow remaining well to our northwest along the NE/SD border. Skies through the first part of the night will average partly cloudy, but trend toward mostly clear with time. At the surface, breezes will remain gusty for a time this evening as they turn northerly behind a weak cold front (gusts still 25-30+ MPH likely until closer to midnight). However, late tonight into early Fri AM, northerly breezes will diminish to no more than 5-10 MPH. Low temps are aimed from mid 30s far north/west- central (mainly Gosper/Dawson up through Valley/Greeley counties), while most of the remainder of our CWA should bottom out upper 30s-low 40s. In the aforementioned coldest areas north/west, some patchy frost cannot be ruled out, and this has been added to our official forecast and Hazardous Weather Outlook. However, with any frost expected to be limited in coverage and duration, opted against a formal Advisory.

- FRIDAY DAYTIME: Confidence is high that our entire CWA should remain dry through at least 7 PM, with sunny skies gradually giving way to some clouds drifting in from the west by late afternoon. At the surface, the day starts with north-northeasterly winds around 10 MPH, then a period of variable direction around mid-day as a high pressure axis slips through, then followed by a gradual increase in southeasterly breezes mid-late afternoon into early evening. The strongest breezes with gusts 20+ MPH should focus within our southwestern quadrant or so (near-critical fire weather possible). High temps were nudged upward a few degrees, now aimed 70-75 most places, and any cooler upper 60s mainly in our extreme north.

- FRIDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: While most of our CWA most likely stays dry, especially roughly the northwest half of our CWA stands at least some chance of seeing isolated/scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms as the first in a parade of several weekend upper waves moves in. Winds will average 10-15 MPH out of the east-southeast through the night, which combined with increasing clouds/spotty precip should keep low temps at least 3-6 degrees milder than tonight, with our latest forecast calling for low-upper 40s most areas.

- SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT: It's still a touch early to start doing a "deep dive" into the details of severe storm potential (see paragraph above in the "big picture" section for some general stuff), but the bottom line is that these 48 hours look to be relative active in terms of rain/thunderstorm potential as a series of upper disturbances track through the Central Plains in persistent west- southwesterly flow aloft, with the overall-strongest shortwave trough arriving into our area late Sunday daytime into Sunday night. While both days/nights will surely feature some rain and storm potential (again any possible severe storms would mainly favor our south half), Sunday into Sunday night feature the overall-highest chances for widespread measurable rain (widespread 80-90+%) per our latest forecast. Given the expectation that our CWA should mostly remain north of the main warm front/instability axis to our south, high temperatures are only forecast to reach mainly mid 50s-mid-60s Saturday, and low- upper 60s Sunday...but again this depends on "exact" frontal position, how stuck we are under lower clouds etc. As earlier stated, there is decent potential for at least most of our CWA to pick up at least 0.50-1.00" of rain...hopefully this trend continues.

- MONDAY-TUESDAY: While spotty rain chances remain in our forecast, this mainly looks like a dry time frame (at least beyond Monday AM), as the weekend system passes off to our east. For sure, convective instability departs our region, ending any possible severe storm threat from the weekend. High temps remain seasonably- cool...mainly aimed 60s both days.

- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Still considerable uncertainy at this time range, but there are hints of increasing rain chances (at least of the scattered variety) as a few disturbances drop down into our region out of the west-northwest (large scale upper flow transitions to more northwesterly during this time). Convective instability and any associated severe storm threat appears fairly meager. High temps currently projected mainly mid-upper 60s on Wednesday, then only near-60 on Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to retain across the 0z TAF period. A few clouds overtop this evening will clear out overnight with a few high-level clouds moving back in Friday afternoon. As for winds, northwest winds gusting as high as 20-25kts will continue across the next few hours with gusts dropping out after midnight. Wind directions will slowly become northerly oriented overnight with a period of light and variable winds materializing between 16-22z as higher pressure moves in. Wind directions Friday afternoon will organize out of the southeast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 433 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- REST OF TODAY-EARLY EVENING: A Red Flag Warning continues for our entire forecast area (CWA), and has been extended one hour longer into the evening...now until 9 PM. As often happens in deeply-mixed, post-frontal regimes, wind speeds have at least slightly "overachieved" previous forecast expectations, with sustained speeds commonly at least 15-25 MPH/gusts consistently 25-35 MPH out of the weset-northwest. The overall-strongest winds have focused within the northwestern two-thirds of our area, but even far southeast areas will see sporadic gusts to around 25 MPH. As for relative humidity (RH), it has easily dropped below our critical criteria, with the majority of our area reporting 10-15 % (localized lower). Especially between 7-9 PM, winds will shift more northerly (versus westerly), especially within our Nebraska forecast area.

- FRIDAY: Although outright-critical conditions are not currently anticipated, roughly the southwestern quadrant of our CWA appears it will experience near-critical fire weather conditions especially from mid-afternoon into early evening. This will be due to the combination of southeast winds gusting at least 20 MPH, and relative humidity falling to at least 20-25 percent.

- BEYOND FRIDAY: Some good news on the fire weather front! Although not necessarily "in the clear" for the spring season, it appears we catch at least a several-days break from critical fire weather concerns. This will be due to a varied combination of cooler temperatures, higher dewpoints/RH (especially over the weekend), along with intermittent and potentially somewhat widespread soaking rain potential (especially this weekend).

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019.