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KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning continues through late evening (much later in the day than normal) owing to strong southerly winds and very dry air.

- A cold front will move through tonight and bring much cooler weather for the weekend. Strong northerly winds gusting 40-45 MPH will accompany the front tonight and persist into Saturday

- The cooler temperatures will present frost and freeze concerns both Friday night-Saturday AM and Saturday night-Sunday AM. A Freeze Watch is in effect for most of the area.

- Warmer weather returns Sunday and especially early next week, but the next decent chance for rain doesn't come until the middle portions of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Widespread critical/Red Flag fire weather conditions are playing out as expected this afternoon. Temperatures have indeed met expectations for highs in the mid to upper 80s, and with another hour or two of heating still to go, could see some spots overachieve into the lower 90s. Dew points remain VERY dry in the upper teens to lower 30s, so RHs are also extremely low in the lower to middle teens. The low levels remain well-mixed through the evening hours thanks to continued Srly flow amidst a tightening sfc pressure gradient. Thus, RH recovery will be very slow. Made no changes to the already later-than-usual end time of the Red Flag Warning that's set to expire at midnight.

A strong cold front remains on track to sweep NW to SE across the area between midnight and dawn tonight. Behind the front, forecast soundings continue to support a surge in gusts up to around 40-45 MPH with the initial passage. Winds could diminish slightly as the daytime hours progress on Friday, but it will still be quite breezy to even windy much of the day. Temperatures will be fighting strong cold air advection and some cloud cover and experience little to no diurnal rise. Thus, it'll feel quite chilly and blustery and generally not very enjoyable...esp. compared to today.

Cool temperatures continue into the weekend and will present some risk for sub-freezing temperatures, for some, along with perhaps some patchy frost. More specifically on the frost potential...it may not be too much of an issue since winds will probably remain too elevated for it Fri night-Sat AM, and the air may simply be too dry for it Sat night-Sun AM. Nonetheless, appears a good chunk of the area will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s by dawn Sat AM, with favored cold spots in Dawson and Valley/Greeley Counties possibly even into the mid 20s. Winds may remain high enough to prevent true potential. Winds will be lighter Sun AM with more of an influence from the ridge axis, so would expect similar readings to the previous night, or maybe even slightly cooler. A Freeze Watch remains in effect for Friday night - Saturday AM, and fully expect another headline will be needed for the next night. Otherwise...Saturday will be similar to Friday in that it will be chilly and blustery...but Sunday afternoon looks to be much nicer as temps rebound into the 70s amidst good sunshine and much lighter winds.

Temperatures will warm even more for the start of the new work week, and may be borderline "hot" (kinda like today) by Tue-Wed. Models suggest the next cold front and decent chance for organized precipitation not coming until about 7 days from now.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concern for this TAF period remains with winds and the passage of a cold front late tonight-early Fri morning. Kept the forecast dry, models remain in pretty good agreement keeping better potential outside of the forecast area. Also kept the TAF VFR...though there is some uncertainty/lower confidence in that behind the frontal passage during at least the first half of the day Friday. Most guidance keeps things VFR, but it may be close...will see how things trend. This evening, winds remain southerly and gusty, gusts near 25-30 MPH will remain possible. Even with these gusty winds, models still showing the potential for LLWS (more at KGRI than KEAR)...so do have that mention continuing. There will be a brief period where winds turn more westerly right ahead of the frontal boundary...potentially a shorter period than what is currently in the TAF. This front will bring an abrupt switch to NNW winds, lasting through the remainder of this period. Sustained speeds around 25-30 MPH and gusts near 35-40 MPH are expected, especially closer to that frontal passage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Though spotty pockets of beneficial rain occurred over the past few days across portions of our forecast area, it remains quite dry and spring-green-up has yet to fully take hold. As a result, fire weather concerns remain in place on various upcoming days.

- THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING: Widespread Red Flag conditions are firmly in place across the entire forecast area this afternoon. Winds will decrease SOME for the evening hours, but remain breezy well past sunset. The well mixed lower levels of the atmosphere will keep humidity values from recovering as quickly as they often do in this region this time of year. Thus, the Red Flag Warning goes unusually late until midnight. PLEASE NOTE: any fires that might get established this afternoon-evening will be subject to a strong northerly wind shift very late tonight into Friday AM.

- FRIDAY: Strong north winds that move in tonight will persist into much of the day on Saturday (sustained speeds commonly 25-30 MPH, gusts up to around 40 MPH). However, the north winds will also usher in much cooler air. As a result, RH is expected to bottom out just above critical levels at around 25-35% for most areas.

- SATURDAY: Although it will be seasonably-cool with high temps only in the 50s-low 60s, the airmass will remain quite dry...allowing afternoon RH to drop well down to at least 15-20%. Winds won't be quite as strong as Friday, but they will still be plenty breezy out of the NW at speeds generally sustained 15-25 MPH and gusting 20-35 MPH (strongest north of I-80/weakest in northern KS). As a result, most of our forecast area is again expected to meet critical criteria.

- SUNDAY-MONDAY: Sunday still looks like another "one day break" from critical fire weather concerns given lighter winds and even gusts mostly under 20 MPH. Unfortunately though, potentially critical conditions return again for Monday as warmer temperatures return with RH forecast s low as 15-20% in most areas and southerly winds gust at least 25-30 MPH.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>076-082>085. KS...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for KSZ005>007- 017>019. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ005-006-017.