textproduct: Hastings

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight...

A developing low is centered near the NE-SD border. An associated warm front is lifting north across the area, currently located roughly along a line from Grand Island to Geneva. A cold front is soon to move into northwestern portions of the area currently located just west of a line from Thedford- North Platte-McCook. In the warm sector of this low (between warm and cold fronts) breezy southerly winds are helping to advect warm moist air into the area. Temperatures in the warm sector are in the 80s and 90s, warmest across north central Kansas. Elevated showers/weak storms are ongoing across the area but overall remain fairly brief/light.

As the cold front continues to push across the area, storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front during the late afternoon-early evening hours. CAPE values of 2000+J/Kg combined with 35kts of shear would support strong-severe thunderstorms. Initial storm development is favored to be discrete which supports a supercellular storm mode. Discrete/Supercellular storms would carry a potential for all hazards (Large hail, damaging wind gusts, isolated tornado). While an isolated tornado can't be ruled out along/east of Highway 81 the best chances look to be just east of the forecast area, closest to the warm front, where surface winds maintain a more due southerly direction. Over time, storms will become more widespread along the front forming into a cluster/line of storms. As storms form into a cluster/line later this evening, hail/tornado threat lessens, with the primary concern becoming damaging wind gusts (gusts to 60-70mph). Strong-severe storms exit the area around midnight. Behind the front, scattered non-severe showers/storms are expected to persist throughout the overnight hours. The steadiest rain overnight will be along and just north of the front as it continues to slide southeast, exiting the area around sunrise on Tuesday.

Tuesday...

Lingering showers/storms continue across southeastern portions of the area on Tuesday. Cooler weather is expected on Tuesday with highs in the 70s and the coldest temperatures across SE portions of the area where cloud coverage is the most persistent. More widespread showers/storms develop during the afternoon hours. With the front located across central/southern KS, PoPs should be limited to mainly SE portions of the forecast area. PoP chances and coverage increase further Tuesday night as the LLJ results in scattered-widespread storms across the area though severe storms look unlikely at this time.

Wednesday...

The stalled front across Kansas begins to lift back north on Wednesday ahead of the next passing upper level disturbance. Highs will be in the 70s across Nebraska and in the low-mid 80s across north central Kansas (warmest along/south of the front). Dry weather is favored during the daytime hours, with rain chances returning to northwestern portions of the area during the overnight hours.

Thursday Onwards...

Southwesterly flow-weak ridging builds over the area Thursday and Friday with temperatures climbing into the 80s and 90s. As a series of disturbances traverse this flow aloft, it will bring continued off and on chances for precipitation each day mainly during the evening-overnight hours. Cooler weather returns this weekend as the aforementioned disturbances flatten and push the ridge east of the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored through TAF period, though sub-VFR conditions can't be completely ruled out in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon-night. Scattered, off and on showers are currently ongoing across the area. During the afternoon-evening hours, these showers will become a mix of showers and thunderstorms which will persist off and on through much of the overnight hours. Have used a mix of TEMPO and PROB30 groups to outline the admittedly long timeframe of storms potential. While most storms are expected to be fairly light/weak, can't completely rule out a stronger storm resulting in briefly sub-VFR conditions though confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Rain ends by sunrise with dry conditions Tuesday sunrise-end of TAF period.

Southerly winds sustained around 20kts and gusting 25-30kts will persist through the mid-afternoon before weakening and shifting to the southwest. Winds become lighter around sunset with gusts below 15kts. A cold front moves through around midnight with winds becoming northerly behind the front. Winds increase prior to sunrise behind the front, gusting around 20-25kts.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.