textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- The #1 story of the next several days are several/intermittent chances for rain/thunderstorms...most of which carry considerable day-to-day uncertainties regarding likelihood, areal coverage and potential severity.

- Severe-threast-wise: SPC has assigned at least portions of our forecast area (CWA) a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for a few severe storms today through Wednesday (mainly for the evening hours)...with much of our southwestern half currently under a level-2 Slight Risk for this evening-tonight.

- Although not presently a major concern (and likely to be welcomed in most places!) much of our CWA is expected to receive at least 1-2" of rain over the next several days...with localized pockets at least 3-4" a decent bet wherever heavier storms track. While most places should be able to handle at least a few inches of rain with minimal flooding concern, we'll need to keep tabs on especially parts of Osborne/Mitchell counties in KS that saw at least 3-5" of rain in recent days.

- Temperature-wise: Certainly nothing unusual these next 7 days by early-June standards. Although officially SLIGHTLY warmer than normal/average (especially daytime highs)...most days should see highs in the 80s/most nights lows in the upper 50s-lower 60s.

UPDATE

Issued at 442 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- No truly significant changes to speak of versus our previous 7-day forecast issuance Sunday afternoon.

- Expanding upon the first point made in Key Messages above, while confidence is high that there will indeed be multiple rounds of showers/storms affecting at least PARTS of our CWA over the next several days, the overall weak/low amplitude nature of the responsible upper level waves passing through in persistent west-southwesterly flow aloft (in other words, no "major" large- scale low pressure systems passing through) certainly lends itself to lower-confidence forecasts in terms of the DETAILS of rain/thunderstorm chances (likelihood/coverage/intensity etc.). In some ways, it's a "take it one day at a time" pattern we're in...one where you don't want to get too hung up on details beyond especially 24-48 hours.

-- FOCUSING SOLELY ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS (through Tues night/early Wed AM): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: Although we had a few isolated and slightly-surprising (but fortunately weak) thunderstorms flare up in mainly our east- central counties around sunset Sunday, this very spotty convection has long since departed, leaving us in the midst of what will likely be the overall-driest/quietest night we'll see for a while.

In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery/short term model data confirm that we are in a brief break in between a parade of low-amplitude disturbances rotating through our region...these waves directed between larger scale low pressure centered over the Northern Rockies...and a larger scale (but not high amplitude) high/ridge centered over the Southern Plains. Our entire CWA is currently almost pristinely clear at this time, but the leading edges of increasing mid-level clouds are about to arrive into our west/southwest counties.

At the surface, a weak gradient is promoting very light/variable direction winds (mainly 5 MPH or less), although a very weak front marked by a more northerly direction is arriving into our northern counties. The combo of clear skies/light winds is allowing some patchy/mainly light fog development...but this is not currently expected to be a major/widespread issue for the AM commute and is actually not even in our official forecast at this time.

- TODAY (through 7-8 PM): Under generally mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies...at least the vast majority of our CWA will likely remain dry and experience simply a seasonably-warm day with high temps mainly 83-89 (possibly a few southern spots trying to tag 90). Although starting off very light, winds through much of the day (especially afternoon) will average 10-15 MPH as direction shifts from more northerly to more east-southeasterly. Again, expecting it to stay dry for most places today, but a weak wave passing through mainly western/northern NE could spark enough lift for a few passing light showers/maybe weak storms...mainly within the NW half of our CWA.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (after 7-8 PM): As a slightly stronger upper wave emerges out of the High Plains...thunderstorm chances will be on the increase tonight. That being said, the coverage/intensity of activity is still in question even at this closer range, with often more "convectively aggressive" higher-res models such as NAMNest showing only mainly our far west-southwestern counties seeing relatively weak storms, while the last few HRRR runs have been more aggressive depicting a larger-scale line or complex of storms to fire up slightly west-southwest of our CWA and then charge into especially the southwestern 1/3 to maybe 1/2 of our CWA fairly aggressively (into the SPC Slight Risk area), before weakening and turning into more of a broad rain-with-embedded- weaker-storms event that could linger on through the rest of the night, with convection fed by a gradually-veering southerly low level jet (LLJ). At this time, this does not look like a truly widespread severe event into our western/southern counties...but the Slight Risk is probably justified given a combo of generally 1000-2000 J/kg mixed layer CAPE and 35+KT of deep layer shear. The main threats (in order of concern) appear to be wind gusts to ~ 60 MPH, hail perhaps up to around half dollar size (likely the exception), and then localized heavy rain of at least 1-2" with possible nuisance flooding (storm mode does not appear to support much of a tornado threat). It's possible that the most intense storm cores skirt just west-through-south of our CWA...riding along the main instability axis, and with the southern edge of any larger-scale complex turning more southward into the LLJ axis. Assuming the more aggressive areal coverage of convection depicted by the HRRR DOES materialize, hopefully this is mostly just a beneficial rain event for most of our CWA, and hopefully not TOO MUCH in a few places (especially parts of Osborne/Mitchell counties that have had 3-5" over the last few days). Low temps tonight are aimed a few degrees either side of 60.

- TUESDAY DAYTIME: Leaning heavily on higher-res model solutions such as from NAMNest/HRRR, the general expectation is that fairly widespread light/moderate rain and embedded weaker storms will be ongoing at sunrise (especially in our southern half)...but with this activity then steadily vacating/dissipating off to our south- southeast by late morning...paving the way for what should be a mostly (maybe completely?) dry afternoon. Under skies that should become no worse than partly cloudy for the afternoon, high temps are aimed a bit cooler than today...most places low 80s. Southeast winds a little breezy for the afternoon...gusts to 20-25 MPH.

- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Details are still plenty murky, but this could be a "mini repeat" of tonight's setup as another wave aloft kicks out from the west-southwest, but "in theory" with a little less instability and more-so deep-layer wind shear to work with. The latest NAMNest shows fairly weak/scattered storm potential through much of the night over our CWA, while the late hours of the 06Z HRRR suggest another complex of at least somewhat-strong storms could be entering our far southwestern counties around midnight. And just to throw one more possibility into the "murky mix, the 00Z RRFS shows very little activity at all within our CWA. All things considered, cannot argue too much against SPC assigning roughly the western 1/3 of our CWA a Marginal Risk for the later evening-overnight. In other departments, overnight low temps are aimed very slightly cooler than the previous night...most places 57-60.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Partly cloudy skies returned to the area this afternoon after another round of storms impacted much of the area Saturday night. While there remains a very small chance for a thunderstorms mainly east of Highway 81 tonight, most of the models keep any convection well east of the local area and decided to remove pops for tonight earlier this afternoon.

Overnight, expect mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds to combine to form a fairly favorable set up for some light fog formation to start the day on Monday. That said, both the HRRR and the SREF probs indicate this potential should lie mostly to our southeast where richer moisture will linger, so opted against introducing light fog to start the day Monday, albeit would not be shocked if some fog did work its way towards Thayer, Jewell and Mitchell counties towards daybreak.

With mostly sunny skies and a brief amplification of the upper level ridge across the area ahead of the next disturbance Monday afternoon, expect a dry and very warm day across the area. Then, late in the day, expect and upper level disturbance to approach from the west/southwest spreading showers and thunderstorms across much of the local area during the late evening through overnight hours. Given the elevated instability and modest 0-6KM shear, could see some stronger to marginally severe storms early on in the event favoring our west and southwestern areas, likely favoring strong winds and hail up to the size of half dollars.

This aforementioned disturbance will also help break down the upper level ridge that briefly amplifies across the area Monday, with a "messy" west southwesterly flow then continuing through the end of the period with off and on chances for thunderstorms and slightly cooler (yet still seasonably warm) temperatures in the lower to mid 80s into next weekend. At this point the best chance for severe weather appears to be Monday night, but there will likely be additional days with the potential for at least some strong to severe storms across the local area given the favorable instability and moist airmass in place across the region. Those details will be addressed as we get closer to those additional chances for thunderstorms later this week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 704 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Overall high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through a good majority of the period, along with dry and thunderstorm-free conditions through at least the first 15-16 hours. Beyond that though, tonight MIGHT become active overnight in terms of thunderstorm activity. Outside of any thunderstorm-induced enhanced outflow, winds will also not be a significant issue, with sustained speeds mainly at-or-below 12KT. Direction will start out northerly right away this morning, then turn more easterly to perhaps at times southeasterly for much of the period. The main aviation concerns follow:

1) Right away mainly during this first hour, patchy/shallow fog could continue reducing visibility to MVFR especially at KGRI. This is a very short term/limited concern.

2) Although a brief sprinkle/light shower cannot be totally ruled out during the day today (not reflected in TAFs due to low probability), by far the main concern is the possibility (not yet a "sure thing") of a larger scale complex of rain/strong thunderstorms rolling in from the west-southwest late this evening...potentially bringing a period of gusty winds (30+KT), moderate to briefly-heavy rain and perhaps small hail. Have maintained PROB30 groups starting 03Z KEAR/04Z KGRI to cover this possibility. Once the main "initial wave" of storms passes, it's possible that additional/regenerating rounds of showers/weak thunderstorms could linger in the area all the way through the night/end of the valid period. As a result, have continued to carry PROB30 groups beyond 06-07Z to account for this...but with less potential for strong winds than with the initial PROB30 group.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.