textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- At least over the next three days, the ongoing Dense Fog Advisory (currently valid through Noon for our entire forecast area/CWA) is by far the main weather concern. - Record high temperatures for Dec. 26th are in reach Friday (mid-upper 60s forecast for most of our CWA...see separate CLIMATE section below for Grand Island/Hastings details).

- While Saturday remains very mild, we get at least a brief "blast of winter reality" Sunday-Monday with highs only in the 20s-30s behind a fairly strong cold front...and POSSIBLY even a quick dusting of light snow for parts of our CWA Sunday AM.

- North winds could to around 40 MPH Sunday behind the aforementioned front...not overly-strong but easily the strongest winds of the 7-day forecast.

- Temperatures currently appear to recover fairly quickly for Tues-Wed with highs at least well back up into the 40s.

UPDATE

Issued at 457 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES WITHIN THE 7-DAY FORECAST AS A WHOLE: - Although still looking like a like a rather minor "event" with very minimal accumulation potential, our forecast now at least acknowledges a slight (20 percent) chance of snow on Sunday for most of our CWA.

- Temperatures for Sunday have also trended down with most areas only 20s-low 30s during the day and wind chills only single digits-teens thanks to the moderately-strong winds (Sunday will feel like a bit of a "shock to the system" after preceding warmth).

-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS: - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: Although if anything expanding westward perhaps a bit slower than previously expected, overall the "wall" of widespread very low clouds and fog/dense fog (visibility commonly 1/2 mile or less) is very much out there as expected, now solidly blanketing nearly all of our counties along/east of Highway 281, and slowly-but-surely expanding westward into counties west of Highway 281 thanks to very light easterly surface/low level breezes. Out ahead of (west of) the gradually expanding mass of low-level "grunge", mostly clear skies have allowed overnight low temperatures across most of our CWA to drop to as cold as the mid 20s-low 30s, but especially far eastern areas have held up well into the mid 30s-low 40s as they got underneath the thicker lower clouds earlier in the night.

In the big picture aloft, an expansive broad high pressure ridge extends north-south through the heart of the U.S., while troughs blank both the West/East Coasts.

- TODAY/CHRISTMAS DAY: The aforementioned widespread low clouds/dense fog is clearly the big story this morning as it continues to expand westward into more and more of the western half of our CWA. Earlier shifts issued/expanded a Dense Fog Advisory to include our ENTIRE CWA, and leaning heavily on latest surface visibility and/or low-RH model data from the RAP/HRRR/ECMWF, rather widespread coverage of dense fog should make it MOST of the way west through our CWA at some point this morning, but perhaps struggle to get into our three western-most counties (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas). That being said, will keep the CWA-wide Advisory going for now just in case it creeps even farther west than anticipated. It's starting to look increasingly-likely that at least "near-dense" visibility at-or-below 1/2 mile could linger for up to a few hours into this afternoon (and thus beyond the current Advisory end-time of Noon). Considered tacking a few more hours onto the Advisory on this shift, but after coordinating with neighboring offices will let upcoming day shift make the possible decision to extend-in-time.

While fog is very clearly the main concern, went ahead and added an official mention of "patchy drizzle" to mainly some of our eastern-most counties through mid-afternoon...as our eastern CWA could feature JUST ENOUGH depth/thickness in the low stratus layer (up to around 1/2 kilometer) to promote some drizzle (as opposed to just fog farther west). Speaking of the low cloud layer...even as low visibility from fog improves, the majority of our CWA will likely remain "socked in" under appreciable clouds today, keeping any kind of significant warm-up at bay.

Wind-wise, speeds will remain light today (no more than 5-10 MPH) as direction gradually shifts from more easterly to more southerly. The combination of the aforementioned/widespread low clouds, the light winds/weak mixing all strongly argue that temps will struggle to warm appreciably today. We may be still be aiming too high in some areas, but now have highs targeted right around 50 for the majority of our CWA, and any slightly milder mid-upper 50s focused in our far western fringes (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) where the low clouds are least likely to exert influence.

- THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT: Through at least the first half of the night (roughly sunset through midnight), especially the eastern half of our CWA will likely see continued very low clouds and at least patchy/sporadic fog (perhaps localized dense but "probably" not worthy of another Advisory as things currently stand?). However, as the night wears on (and especially post-midnight) surface/low level breezes will pick up a bit (more consistently around 7-10 MPH) as they turn more due westerly (downslope), which should pretty efficiently drive any lingering fog and low stratus out of our CWA and off to the east. For most of our CWA, low temps tonight should hold up several degrees warmer than this morning...most areas mid-upper 30s.

- FRIDAY DAYTIME: What a difference a day will make! With low clouds/fog out of the picture and skies expected to be sunny/mostly sunny under only modest amounts of passing high level cirrus, the stage will be set for a very mild (and potentially record-setting) day by late-December standards. About the only foreseeable "catch" to full warming potential will be the fact that mixing could be limited somewhat by overall-light west to southwesterly breezes (most places sustained only 5-10 MPH although especially far north-northwest counties could see some gusts 15+ MPH). At any rate, nearly our entire CWA should see highs spike a good 15-20 degrees warmer than today, with widespread mid-upper 60s.

- FRIDAY NIGHT: This should be a quiet/uneventful night featuring only light southerly breezes and a fair amount but a fair amount of high- level cloud cover streaming in on increasingly southwesterly flow aloft. Low temps are aimed similar to perhaps very slightly colder than those for Thurs night (most areas 33-38).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Now that the fog and most of the low-level stratus has moved off and away for the day, temperatures are on their way into the mid 50s to upper 60s this afternoon. Light to steady southwesterly winds among a weak surface pressure gradient today will become variable at times overnight tonight. A subtle low pressure center (~1004mb) sliding down from the Rockies will steer winds towards a southeasterly direction for Christmas Day. This gentle upslope flow with temperatures overnight nearing the saturation dewpoints (upper 20s to mid 30s) will likely lead to condensation and in turn fog development again tonight.

Dense fog looks more than possible overnight into Christmas given the latest and still consistent guidance between most high-res short- term models. The bigger question will be how far west will this patch of dense fog may travel. As of now, we project that a bank of fog will spread from east to west between mainly 10PM and 8AM. This fog could spread west of HWY-80 around to just after midnight and west of HWY-281 around to after 5AM. Confidence in fog drops off substantially for areas west of HWY-183. There is some additional uncertainty in how long fog will stick around before mixing out. Most guidance has fog clearing around noon, although the HRRR tries to keep some fog around through the day. A Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect from midnight until noon Christmas day for counties west of HWY-183 and including Buffalo county.

The greatest forecast challenge for Christmas day beyond the fog potential has been fine tuning the highs. Despite only being one day out, the latest NBM 25th-75th percentile shows a spread of 5-10 degrees across the area with the greatest spread draped across our eastern half (areas more susceptible to dense fog). Several factors are contributing to this wide spread of uncertainty. Currently, the ridging pattern aloft with anomalously warm mid-level temperatures would in general favor temperatures closer to the 60s at the surface, however, low-level stratus/fog blocking out the sun for a majority if not the entire day may keep highs from leaving the upper 40s and 50s for the eastern 2/3rd of the area. In all likeliness, a few of our western areas may overachieve expectation with our eastern areas the most likely to underachieve in terms of highs.

The broad low pressure center, mentioned earlier, will pass overnight Thursday along with a weak shortwave disturbance aloft. This should help clear out clouds and turn the weak surface flow back to a southwesterly direction for Friday. The return of downslope flow (adiabatic warming) with the addition of mostly clear skies for the first half of the day, should provide enough warming potential for highs to reach the 60s to even the low 70s in a few Kansas places. Clouds returning Friday evening with yet another broad (1004mb) surface low passage will steer southerly winds heading into the day Saturday. Highs are currently forecast to settle in the low to mid 60s.

The most notable feature in the long-range period will be the passage of a cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures should plummet around 25-35 degrees between Saturday and Sunday (highs going from the low to mid 60s to the upper 20s and 30s). In addition to the cold spell, far breezier northwesterly winds could gust up top 30-40MPH during the afternoon hours Sunday.

For those questioning when the next chance for precipitation may occur, a low-end chance (<20%) for light and non-accumulating snow could materialize for a few northwestern places on the backside of a passing compressed and negatively tilted trough Sunday. This feature looks to be able to provide at least some mid-level assent (vorticity advection at the base of a PV anomaly). At this time, however, we would suggest for one to not get their hopes up quite yet as there has not been enough model run-to-run consistency for a formal mention in the forecast.

Beyond Sunday, dominating northwest flow aloft on the backside of the departing trough will likely continue the period of dry conditions. Widening confidence ranges from diverging ensemble guidance keeps temperatures more in question to how they may rebound following the cold front early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): At least 4-7 hours of very poor (LIFR/VLIFR) aviation conditions are likely today in dense fog/very low stratus. Then, the latter half of the period features a fairly abrupt return to VFR with only scattered mid-high level clouds at worst. Winds will not be a significant issue, with speeds through much of the period prevailing at-or-below 8KT as direction generally transitions from southeasterly to southerly during the day...then more southwesterly to westerly this evening-overnight.

- Ceiling/visibility details: - KGRI: Very poor, LIFR/VLIFR conditions in dense fog with frequent 1/4SM visibility and very low ceiling are likely to persist through at least roughly 19Z. Thereafter, the following several hours should feature a gradual improvement to IFR/perhaps MVFR (visibility improving before ceiling), but it now appears it could be at least 00Z before an outright-return to VFR. While similar to previous/06Z TAFs, have slightly delayed categorical improvements (and perhaps not long enough). Please note confidence in "exact" timing of category changes is not overly- high especially beyond 19Z.

- KEAR (similar to KGRI except these first 1-2 hours): Right out of the gate this morning, KEAR is holding onto its final 1-2 hours of VFR conditions before an abrupt decline to very poor LIFR/VLIFR conditions in dense fog with frequent 1/4SM visibility and very low ceiling should establish by 14Z and persist through at least roughly 19Z. Thereafter, except KEAR to follow the same gradual improving trends as described for KGRI above, but probably occurring slightly sooner/earlier. Actually, an outright-return to VFR has been pushed back by hours in latest TAFs (from 20 to 23Z). As noted for KGRI, confidence in "exact" timing of category changes is not overly-high especially beyond 19Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 457 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

- REGARDING RECORD WARM TEMP POTENTIAL DEC 24-27: As our overall-very-mild stretch of late-December continues through Saturday, a few daily records for warmth (both daytime highs and overnight lows) will likely end up being broken, with Friday (Dec. 26) featuring the best potential for setting new record daytime highs.

Below is where our latest forecast (or already-observed values) stand versus existing records at Grand Island and Hastings airports, the two NWS-maintained sites for which we issue official Record Event Reports (RERGRI/RERHSI). Please note that * indicates that our latest forecast/observed value would tie or break an existing daily record:

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES | Latest Forecast or Observed Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 64 in 2021 | Observed: 63 December 25: 62 in 1999,1963,1922 | Forecast: 50 December 26: 64 in 2005 | Forecast: 68* December 27: 64 in 1937 | Forecast: 61

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Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 66 in 1933 | Observed: 62 December 25: 62 in 1999,1950 | Forecast: 50 December 26: 65 in 2005 | Forecast: 68* December 27: 64 in 1937 | Forecast: 61

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- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | Latest Forecast or Observed Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 34 in 1936 | Observed: 30 December 25: 34 in 1959 | Observed: 29 December 26: 38 in 1931 | Forecast: 38* December 27: 34 in 1905 | Forecast: 37*

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Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 33 in 2005,1955 | Observed: 35* (NEW RECORD) December 25: 34 in 1922 | Observed: 26 December 26: 38 in 1959 | Forecast: 38* December 27: 37 in 1957 | Forecast: 37*

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ039>041-046>049- 060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ005>007-017>019.