textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Although far from frigid, 2026 will get off to a chillier start for Thurs-Fri and likely also feature some pesky low clouds and/or fog at times. In addition, although not currently in our forecast, Friday afternoon-evening could possibly bring some very light snow and/or wintry mix to mainly our far north-northeast counties?

- Saturday through Wednesday, a legitimately mild and likely dry pattern resumes for several days, with highs mainly in the 50s (some low 60s too especially south/west). - Peeking slightly beyond the 7-day: there are at least "hints" of MAYBE some more legitimate precip chances...the latest GFS more favoring Thurs (Jan. 8th) and the latest ECMWF more so favoring Fri (Jan 9th).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, INCLUDING ANY CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES WORTH MENTIONING:

- In the shorter term, these next couple days (Thurs-Fri) will likely be "pesky" regarding various forecast elements...including: cloud cover and fog potential (and resultant impact on high temps), and also the possibility of a light round of precip (snow or a wintry mix) Friday afternoon- evening mainly in northern counties. This light precip potential is not currently in our official forecast, but needs monitored.

- For the Saturday-Wednesday stretch, it's mainly just a "temperature forecast" as our forecast remains dry with fairly high confidence. This latest forecast update certainly has no major temperature changes, but for those watching closely: highs for Saturday and Mon-Tues trended up a few degrees, while highs Sunday actually trended down 3-6 degrees.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Wed Jan. 7): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM: Kudos to preceding night shifter for nudging up high temps for today, as they not only reached those values but exceeded by a few degrees more...with most of our forecast area (CWA) on track to top out between 59-64. At Grand Island/Hastings airports (our two official climate records sites): This was Grand Island's warmest New Year's Eve/Dec. 31st in 26 years (since 1999)...Hastings actually ended up tying it's Dec. 31st RECORD HIGH of 61 (first set in 1956)!

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm that our region resides under large-scale northwesterly flow...directed between a large-scale trough centered near the Great Lakes...and a large-scale ridge axis generally aligned over the Rockies. At the surface, today's very mild temps have been driven by modestly-breezy west-northwest winds (sustained at least 10-15 MPH/gusts at least 15-25 MPH this afternoon) and resultant downslope/warming flow, along with almost pristine/full sunshine. Unfortunately, the slightly over-achieving temperatures have helped to give rise to "near-critical" fire weather conditions for roughly the western 2/3rds of our CWA, but this threat will subside after 5 PM as cooling commences.

- TONIGHT: We begin a 36-48 stretch that will FOR SURE feature chillier weather, but that also features a decent amount of uncertainty in various elements including cloud cover, fog potential and temps. In the big picture, a strong surface high/ridge nosing down through MN/IA will help drive a classic "backdoor" cold front down into our CWA out of the north-northeast. As of this writing, an expansive deck of low clouds (with some light fog at least along/near its leading edge) is located only about 100 miles north-northeast of the northern edges of our CWA, and is on a steady approach. Leaning on these latest satellite trends and short-term model relative humidity (RH) data, this mass of low clouds will likely enter our far north-northeast counties by 8-9 PM, its arrival marked by a switch to more northerly breezes gusting at least 15-20 MPH for a few hours. As the night wears on, these low clouds will continue through our central CWA, but eventually more or less "stall out" over our western/southern counties as surface breezes become lighter and turn more easterly/southerly. The "million dollar question" at least in terms of potentially impactful weather is whether (or not) much fog will try forming especially along/near the edges of this low cloud mass. Recent runs of higher-res visibility progs from models such as HRRR/RAP have fluctuated regarding the areal coverage/density of possible fog, but at least a narrow band of fog seems probable to develop within especially our western/southern counties especially after 3 AM, some of which MIGHT be localized dense (visibility down around 1/4 mile). Although forecast confidence in fog trends is admittedly low at this time, decided to introduce the possibility for at least localized dense fog to our Hazardous Weather Outlook. Temp-wise, lows were changed little, with most of the CWA aimed 21-25.

- THURSDAY DAYTIME: Happy New Year...and "happy" cool down! Although forecast confidence in "exact details" continues to run on the lower side, the general expectation is that the day will start with fairly extensive lower clouds and at least "some fog" (particularly in a narrow zone near the edges of the lowest stratus in our southern/western zones). However, as surface/low level winds start to pick up speed by mid-late morning out of the south-southwest (sustained speeds 10-15 MPH/gusts around 20), the low clouds should steadily lift/vacate from west-to- east and any fog should dissipate. However, even as lower clouds vacate there will be plentiful high level cirrus clouds moving in from the west. The net result will be an overall mostly cloudy day for most areas. Last but not least, the afternoon high temperature forecast is a bit tricky, as the influence of the backdoor cold front, along with plentiful clouds, all but assures that it will be at least 10-15 degrees cooler than today (some places pushing 20 cooler). However, there will also surely be a decent east (cooler) to west (warmer) gradient. Leaning on a multi-model blend, ended up nudging up highs 2-3 degrees from previous forecast...now aimed from low 40s far east...to mid- upper 40s central...to low-mid 50s far west.

- THURSDAY NIGHT: Although not currently in our official forecast, there are increasing signs that at least the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA could see a return of low clouds (and possibly fog?) as another weak/reinforcing cold front slides back in from the north/east on light breezes...this will be something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, low temps aimed 23-28 most places.

- FRIDAY-FRI NIGHT: In some ways, at least somewhat of a "repeat" of Thursday...as the day will likely start with a batch of low cloud and/or fog (mainly east), which would vacate but there would again be plenty of mid-high clouds as well. Furthermore, (and unlike Thursday), there is even some slight potential for what would likely be a round of light snow or a light wintry mix especially Friday afternoon-evening...most favoring our northern counties...as an upper wave passes by in the west-northwest flow aloft. For now, our official forecast remains "dry" due to precip chances (PoPs) topping out only around 10 percent, but later forecasts may very well have to add some official precip mention (or at the very least flurries). Temperature-wise, another tricky day depending on cloud trends (and the fairly light east-southeasterly winds won't help warming much either). Kept highs similar to previous...aiming from only mid-upper 30s northeast...to near-40 central...to as warm as upper 40s/near-50 far southwest.

- SATURDAY-SUNDAY: In short, we return to what "in theory" is a more straightforward forecast with fewer chances for low clouds/fog and more "warming-favorable" winds out of mainly the west (Sat) and south (Sunday...which looks to be the breezier of the two days). Sunday also looks to be the cloudier of the two days (mainly high level), which likely explains to some degree why temps have trended down some. All in all though, the vast majority of the CWA should see highs rebound into the 50s, with some 60s especially far southwest on Sunday.

- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: ALthough the latest ECMWF hints at some spotty light shower potential around Tues night-Wed AM with a weak upper wave, overall model consensus clearly supports keeping the forecast dry for now as the Central Plains resides under fairly benign quasi-zonal (west-east) flow aloft. If anything, high temps were nudged up slightly, but overall most of the CWA aimed somewhere in the 50s all three days...with some low 60s possible especially far south-southwest.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Very high confidence VFR ceiling/visibility through the first 11-12 hours. However, the latter 12-13 hours starting late tonight carries increasing probability of at least IFR/MVFR ceiling and/or visibility...but with BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE in the "finer details" even at this closer time range.

As for winds, they will not be a significant issue, with the overall-strongest speeds occurring right away this afternoon (sustained 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT), but then sustained speeds mainly near-to-below 10KT through most of the remainder of the period. However, there will be various directional changes...from westerly to northwesterly this afternoon...then from northerly to easterly tonight...and finally from southeasterly to southerly Thursday morning.

- Ceiling/visibility details and uncertainty: As of this writing, the leading edge of a deck of low stratus and at least light fog is located approximately 240 miles north- northeast of KGRI/KEAR, and will slowly-but-surely approach the area over the next several hours thanks to an approaching "back door" cold front. There is actually fairly high confidence that these low clouds and/or fog will first reach KGRI around 05Z/KEAR around 06Z, but what happens in the ensuing several hours currently carries quite a bit of uncertainty. The main uncertainties involve: Will the lowest ceilings/visibilities (perhaps at least IFR category for both) last only for a few hours (most favored at KGRI) or perhaps stick around for most or all of 6-12 hours (most favored at KEAR)? For now, have taken a "best guess" in TAFs, with both sites experiencing several hours of MVFR/IFR ceilings, and KEAR eventually dipping to at least MVFR visibility in fog by mid-morning. However, once again, uncertainty in exact ceiling/visibility categories and timing is running below-average at this time and later TAF issuances will hopefully gain a better handle on things.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.