textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms are expected to west to east across the area between 4pm to 10pm. A few could become strong to severe. The primary threat will be wind gusts near 60 MPH, although the strongest storms could produce quarter size hail as well.

- There is a low (20-30%) chance for isolated t-storms again Monday afternoon and evening. IF storms develop, a few could be on the strong side, but the overall severe threat is low.

- More widespread rain/t-storm chances arrive Wednesday night into Thursday, with continued off/on chances through next weekend. A few strong to severe storms cannot be totally ruled out, but the severe threat remains low (especially for late May).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Satellite shows an area of deepening cumulus over southwest Nebraska. This will be the area to monitor as it slides across central Nebraska and northern Kansas late this afternoon into early evening. CAMs indicate that coverage should remain pretty isolated, but convective parameters are favorable for a few of these to become strong to marginally severe (MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg and effective shear ~30kts). Relatively dry low levels would be favorable for downburst winds. This will likely be the primary hazard, although some severe hail cannot be completely ruled out as well. Any storms that develop should fade by 9-10pm with the loss of diurnal heating.

Monday will trend a few degrees warmer than today, and many areas are anticipated to reach the low 90s, aided by a steady south wind. Isolated storms are again possible, although CAMs indicate that this will be more favorable over the Sandhills, potentially nudging into northwestern portions of the forecast area. Shear is not impressive tomorrow, so an organized severe threat is even less likely than today.

Tuesday is favored to remain mostly dry, but rain/tstorm chances increase again Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday. This will be in response to a shortwave moving across the central Plains ahead of a deeper upper low over the west coast. Off and on chances for thunderstorms then continue through the end of the week as the upper low gradually ejects over the northern Plains. Unfortunately, the upper-level pattern is expected to be "messy" which makes it difficult to pin down specific details. But, as mentioned in the Key Messages, the severe threat does not look particularly threatening. The GEFS CSU-MLP severe probs remain below 5% through next week. This is probably partly influenced by uncertainty on timing/evolution of the upper level pattern, but is still well below climatology (~10%) for late May.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are favored through the period. There is only a low chance for a few thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.

Wind remains out of the south to SSW through the period. LLWS is expected in the 04-13Z timeframe.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.