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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds, light snow and reduced visibilities expected behind a cold front today. Overall snowfall accumulations will be light (less than 1 inch), but the very strong wind gusts (to 55 MPH) could combine with any snow to reduce visibilities through the late morning hours.

- Less windy for Monday (but still breezy and cool) with seasonably warm temperatures along with no significant weather concerns returning for the remainder of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Strong winds are overtaking the region this morning with multiple locations reporting gusts of 50 to 55 MPH...especially across locations north of Highway 6. These strong wind gusts will eventually spread across the majority of the local area by late morning as they peak behind an approaching cold front... before very gradually relaxing this evening. Latest HRRR keeps wind gusts below 50 KTS, and while a few gusts near 58 MPH may ultimately be realized, think they will be few and far between, and opted against a high wind warning for this event.

Behind this front, temperatures will struggle today, and Ord has already dropped to near 20 degrees as of 4 AM with some light snow also being reported. Afternoon temperatures overall are expected to remain near or below freezing area wide.

As light snow accompanies the very strong winds, expect reduced visibilities at times, with several locations across central Nebraska (upstream of the local area) currently reporting visibilities of 1-2 SM. The worst of the visibilities locally will be through the late morning hours, with significant improvement expected by afternoon as any remaining snowfall comes to an end and winds begin to slowly diminish. Overall snowfall accumulations have not changed much from the previous forecast, with most areas expected to see less than 1 inch of accumulation, with the focus of the higher totals anticipated north of Interstate 80. As a result, issued a short duration SPS advertising the snow/wind/vsby combo for the highest confidence areas with the worst conditions through 10 AM. In fact, latest probs for more than 1 inch of snow are only 10-20% across areas north of I-80 with probs near zero for our north central Kansas counties.

While the cold front should be into north central Kansas by early evening, winds will remain elevated, albeit not as strong (in the 30-40 mph range) through the evening hours and remain breezy on Monday (15-30 MPH). Surface high pressure will then settle in Monday night, with a return to seasonably warm temperatures and uneventful weather then expected for the remainder of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Despite the scattered clouds out and about this afternoon, light warm air advecting west to southwesterly winds have allowed temperatures to graze into the 60s, pushing near records. Be sure to enjoy your last breath of these anomalously warm temperates, as a cold front powering through tonight will pump in cold air down and into central NE/KS. Temperatures will be expected to drop to the 20s and 30s to start the day off Sunday, only getting colder and colder through the day. Temperatures should reach the teens to mid 20s by nighttime with overnight lows likely sweeping as low as the single digits to low teens (wind chill values as low as -15 to 3 degrees).

A sharp surface gradient aligning behind the front with a strengthening surface low Sunday will energize strong winds for the morning to early afternoon hours. North to northwesterly blowing winds between 25-35MPH may gusts as high as 45-50MPH (a few rogue gusts up to 55MPH would not be too surprising either). Aloft, a digging trough will swing down into the Central Plains, digging up some mid-level assent and precipitation chances. A mix of rain and snow showers will be expected to cover the area this evening into Sunday morning. It is also important to note that we can't completely rule out a brief period of freezing rain inbetween, though given how strong the cold air advection will be behind the front, we believe that the transition period should occur fairly quick (less freezing rain potential).

A few scattered light showers could break out as early as this evening between 8PM and 3AM. Most models render some sort of coverage with this "first course" of liquid precipitation. There is still a bit of range between models regarding how expansive these prefrontal showers may spread coverage-wise (The HRRR and RAP are more generous than other models). In general, these leading showers will mostly pop up south of I-80 or east of the Tri-Cities, depositing minor amounts of liquid accumulations (<0.1in). The "main course" (light snow showers) will be expected to come later in the night (after 3AM).

A band of light snow (potentially starting as rain and quickly changing over to snow) will move into the areas from the northwest. This snow or rain transiting to snow will be expected to start out across the northwest areas (Gosper to Greeley counties) between 3- 6AM, the Tri-Cities/central areas between 5-7AM, and our southeast KS/NE areas (Osborn to Filmore counties) between 7-9AM. Once the snow begins, expect for the snow showers to linger for a fairly brief 2-5 hour period, depositing up to a few tenths to just over 1" of snow in a couple of locations north and northeast of the Tri- Cities. A few Kansas or far southern Nebraska locations may not receive any accumulating snow altogether.

Snow will begin to clear in the same order (from northwest to southeast) between mainly 8AM to 12PM. Given the strong winds and light falling snow (even given limited accumulations), reduced visibilities could impact travel during the time snow is falling. For areas mainly near and north of the Tri-Cites)locations most likely to accumulate at leas 0.5" of snow, blowing snow could linger a few hours following the end of the accumulating snow period.

Looking past Sunday, conditions for the rest of the week will continue to remain more on the dry side as northwest flow becomes locked overhead (troughing over the Eastern U.S. with ridging over the Western U.S.). Highs monday, reinforced by the northerly cold air advecting winds, will remain in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A mini- warm up looks to transpire Tuesday/Wednesday as a weak pressure gradient takes over at the surface, turning light winds towards a westerly direction. Highs both days will jump up to the mid 40s to mid 50s and probably a few degrees warmer on Wednesday (around 5 degrees). Following this brief warmup, a mid week cold front (more than likely dry) will knock back highs around 10 degrees for Thursday (mid 30s to upper 40s). Steady southerly winds by Friday may help temperatures near the end of the week return to the 40s/50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Very strong winds, with gusts over 40 KTS+, are being at both terminals behind a cold front this morning. At the same time, some very light snow is being realized, and will likely increase in coverage/intensity over the next couple of hours. As winds peak around 28/16Z...snowfall will also begin to taper off, with MVFR VSBYS/CIGS at times this morning giving way to prevailing VFR conditions by 28/18Z. Winds will remain gusty to near 40 KTS through 28/23Z...with gusts diminishing to near 30 KTS after dark and continuing through the overnight hours tonight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.


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