textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of rain showers today, particularly along and south of I-80. O.25 to 0.50" of rain are most favored along and south of the KS/NE state line, with trace to 0.25" amounts expected elsewhere.

- Dry conditions return tonight, but patchy areas of fog may develop in areas that see the most rain by Sunday AM.

- Main story for Sunday afternoon through the middle of next week will be unseasonably warm temperatures. Unfortunately, the warmth will come with some fire weather concerns - particularly Sunday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

- Somewhat cooler and potentially at least slightly more active weather returns for the second half of next week - but confidence on details are low.

UPDATE

Issued at 515 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

No significant changes to the forecast for today as areas of rain have begun to overspread roughly the southern half of the area over the last several hours. Still expect the most steady of rain, and highest rain amounts, to fall along and south of the KS/NE state line - where latest ensemble guidance indicates >90% chances for at least a tenth of an inch...but only 10-20% chances for amounts >0.50". If anything, models have come into a bit better agreement that the northern edge of appreciable rain amounts (say from a few hundredths to around a tenth) will be between Hwy 6 and I-80. Probabilities for >0.10" rapidly fall off N of the I-80 corridor. Coverage will be most abundant through around midday, then gradually decrease from NW to SE during the afternoon and evening. Still can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder in our KS counties this morning, but not enough confidence in occurrence or coverage to include in something like the HWO.

A small forecast change for late tonight into Sunday morning was to add some patchy fog - mainly for areas along/S of the state line - where the "heaviest" rain will fall today. Not sure how much the recent rain will really contribute to low level moisture given how dry it's been (ground should really be able to soak the slow/steady rain up today)...but clearing skies, light winds, and easily attainable cross-over temperatures could allow for at least patchy fog through mid-morning Sunday...as indicated on some of the recent hi-res guidance.

The rest of Sunday will be very/unseasonably warm and gradually more breezy. This will bring fire weather concerns back into the picture for the afternoon hours. The greatest overlap of breezy conditions (gusts 20-25 MPH) and low humidity (20-25%) will be along and W/NW of a line from Arapahoe to Ord. May eventually need a few counties in a fire headline - but the greatest concern will be just W/NW of the area from SW Nebraska into the Sandhills.

Tuesday is another fire weather day of concern and continues to look like the warmest day of the forecast. See below for additional details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Currently...

Outside of a few scattered sprinkles sliding through southern portions of the forecast area early this morning, been another overall quiet day. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data continue to show zonal flow in place across the region. Broad ridging extends north through the Plains, set up between troughing along the East Coast and a low pressure system working its way into the Desert SW. Satellite imagery showing mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies currently, with increasing mid-upper level cloud cover inching its way closer toward the forecast area...a trend that will continue the rest of today. At the surface, we're sitting between high pressure over the Midwest and SErn CONUS and weak troughing along the High Plains. This has brought us SSWrly winds...and similar to yesterday, while most speeds will top out around 10-15 MPH, some gusts closer to 20 will be possible through the afternoon hours. Not looking at any surprises as far as temperatures with generally low 60s expected.

This evening through Saturday...

Overall, there hasn't been any significant changes in models today regarding the incoming precipitation chances...which remain liquid through entire event. The upper level troughing/low moving into the Desert SW this afternoon will continue its eastward trek through Saturday, with models in pretty good agreement showing the center of the 500mb low tracking along/just south of the OK/TX border. This will keep the bulk of heavier precipitation well to our south across the Srn Plains, but the main trough axis will be passing through the area, and models show the potential for a sharper/better swath of forcing tied closer to 700mb...driving our chances. Main question has been and still remains with just how far north more than a trace or few hundredths can get...agreement is still good that the better potential for 0.1 in or more lies closer to/south of the NE/KS state line. At the surface, the main low is also tracking well south of the forecast area, meaning winds will gradually turn more easterly- northerly with time...which can impact the northward extent of precipitation. Most models show overall not a lot going on through the evening hours...the better chances ramp up after midnight tonight, and especially closer to the 09-12Z. Those better chances look to continue roughly into midday-early afternoon, with things tapering off from west-east through the rest of the afternoon. Have some 20 percent chances lingering in the far SE into early evening, but several models have things dry by 00Z.

Not a ton of change with forecast rainfall totals for the event...with amounts around the 0.10-0.2 range along the state line, amounts in the 0.2-0.5 range across north central KS. Think that across our KS counties, most totals end up closer to that 0.2 number than 0.5...ensemble probabilities of 0.5 in or more are still mainly only in that 10-30 percent range. The NAM and ECMWF are on the more generous side with at least 0.01 in...EC ensemble has probabilities over 60 percent as far north as along I-80 (GFS ensemble is further south).

Confidence in high temperatures on Saturday remains on the low side...how the precipitation actually ends up evolving will play a large role. Expecting plenty of cloud cover across central and SE areas...but there will be the potential for some sun in the NW as the afternoon passes, allowing for some warming. Forecast highs range from the low 50s in the SE to near 60 in the NW.

Sunday and on...

Overall quiet conditions return to the forecast for the start of the new week, with models in good agreement showing broad upper level ridging moving in behind this Sat. system. Through the day on Sunday, winds turn back to the SSW, as the area is once again set up between departing sfc high pressure to the SE and a deepening trough axis over the High Plains...winds on Monday are a little more uncertain with models showing the potential for a weak boundary to move in. With a lack of colder air accompanying that Sat. system, forecast highs both Sunday and Monday bounce back into the low-mid 60s.

Tuesday is currently forecast to be the overall warmest day of the week, with highs near 70 to lower 70s across central/southern portions of the forecast area. It also has the potential to be a breezy/windy day...and fire weather is a concern. In the upper levels, models showing larger, broader troughing taking over the western CONUS, with the potential for a shortwave disturbance to swing NE out of the central Rockies into the Dakotas. Ahead of this wave, sfc low pressure deepens over the Nrn/Central High Plains...with a frontal boundary swinging through during the day. We'll see how models trend with these features and the timing, but current forecast has gusty SSW developing by midday, switching to the west through the afternoon. Dewpoints dropping into the 20s-low 30s and current forecast highs results in relative humidities dropping below 30 percent basically west of HWY 281, and near/below 20 percent west of HWY 183. Potential for near-critical/critical fire weather conditions...so did insert a mention into the HWO. Forecast has some low end precipitation chances (20 percent) mainly Tue evening/night as that shortwave swings through...focused across the northern half of the forecast area.

Zonal upper level flow returns to the region for the latter half of the week...potential remains for a couple of shortwave disturbances to pass through the region, bringing addition precip chances...but confidence in any of those details is low, so the chances remain low. Even though one boundary pushes through Tuesday...not a great push of colder air, so highs on Wednesday remain in the 60s. A reinforcing front looks to push through Thursday, ushering in colder air and another push of gusty winds, this time out of the NW. Highs for Thursday and Friday fall back more into the 40s-50s, still above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period with some MVFR CIGS possible off and on this morning in areas of light rain.

Rain has steadily been filling in on the radar over the past few hours and it appears both terminals will be on the northern edge of the more widespread/steady showers for much of the morning hours. Still think conditions will remain primarily VFR today with cloud bases around 4-6K ft. However, still a chance (~40-50%) that CIGs could lower to MVFR conditions off and on for a few hours - particularly in the 14Z-18Z time frame. Rain showers will gradually decrease this afternoon, and clouds will depart this evening. Will need to watch for some patchy fog development towards dawn Sunday AM, but not enough confidence to include at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions likely on Sun.

Winds will generally be light through the period...at less than 12 KTS...predominantly ENE to NNE today, then variable overnight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.