textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple disturbances will bring some bouts of light wintry mix over the next 48 hours, but impacts should be minimal due to light nature and marginal temperatures.

- Above to well-above normal temperatures are favored for the second half of the week and through the weekend.

- Forecast is dry beyond Wednesday, and fire weather concerns appear limited, as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Today has been seasonably mild, as expected, under copious high levels clouds. Far W portions of the area have actually warmed into the low to mid 50s behind a sfc trough that swung winds more westerly and resulted in better mixing. Quiet conditions will persist through the evening hours.

A "clipper" system - currently seen in water vapor and regional radar mosaic imagery over the Dakotas - will quickly shift SE tonight. The brunt of the forcing with this wave will remain along and esp. E of the MO River Valley, but could get just enough moisture/lift to squeeze out some flurries and/or light snow showers over our far NE after midnight. Some of the latest hi-res guidance shows some simulated reflectivity lingering along Hwy 81 corridor through late morning. Not expecting much for impacts, if any, given off and on nature of only light snow. To the point, 12Z EPS probabilities were <10% for even a hundredth (0.01") of QPF.

Another quick-moving wave looks to impact the region beginning late Tuesday afternoon or early evening and linger through the overnight. This wave looks to track further W and have a bit more moisture to work with compared to the first wave. However, it will also be a bit warmer (esp. early in the event Tue eve) such that some of the precip will likely fall as mostly liquid. Forecast soundings and plan view plots suggest the rain/snow line may setup directly over the forecast area from NNW to SSE, with more liquid favored W, and wet snow further E, with the dividing line perhaps right along Hwy 281. I do expect some heavier precip rates, but even these heavier rates should be fairly brief for any given location - generally a few hours, or less. Also, with the marginal temperatures, some of the snow will likely melt, esp. at the onset. Road conditions may be slow to respond, as well, given recent treatments over the weekend. So...all this to say that there's probably (likely?) going to be some passing rain/snow showers Tue eve-night, but not expecting more than a few tenths of snow accums, at most. 12Z EPS probs for measurable precip range from only 10-20% along Hwy 81, to more than 70% along Hwy 283. Probabilities for more than a dusting of snow are near 0. Last item to note...removed any mention of freezing rain/drizzle from the forecast. Forecast soundings suggest it'll be a fairly "clean" transition and not one that truly favors impactful freezing rain. It may be rain/snow mix at 32-33 degrees, but falling rain at 30 degrees, or colder, appears very unlikely.

The rest of the forecast is quiet and turning rather mild. Wednesday will be a bit of a transition day with perhaps some lingering flurries in the AM, but Thursday-Friday should be much warmer in the 50s and 60s. Winds look a tad breezy on Thursday, but RHs don't "scream" significant fire weather concerns at this time. Latest ensembles are in good agreement that above normal temps will persist through the weekend. EPS and GEPS means are actually quite mild in the mid 50s to mid 60s, whereas the GEFS is a bit cooler in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Regardless, should be a nice weekend with no winter weather concerns.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: MVFR CIGs possible after midnight, especially for GRI.

Expect a steady stream of high clouds to persist through the evening hours with winds shifting from southerly to northwesterly. Speeds should remain around 10kt, or less.

High clouds will clear out for a time overnight, but low clouds may back in from the N/NE late, particularly after 06Z and for GRI. Models are more uncertain on the extent as it pertains to EAR. CIGs should be primarily MVFR, though latest NBM has about a 30-35 percent chance for a few hours of IFR CIGs (at GRI) between 13-17Z. Light and somewhat variable winds overnight, will bec steady northwesterly 7-10kt for Tuesday morning. Confidence: Medium.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.