textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Most of the daytime will be dry this Independence Day.

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms return from the north/northwest this evening. Some could be marginally severe. - The early part of next week should remain mostly dry.

UPDATE

Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

As of 1am, more robust convection continues to redevelop over northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado. This activity is expected to push eastward through the early morning. This is expected to primarily impact areas near and south of the KS/NE state line, but isolated storms cannot be ruled out further north as well. Hail will be the primary threat with these storms, although locally damaging wind cannot be ruled out either. Near-term models show this activity weakening and departing the area by around 8-9am at the latest, and the rest of the daytime should remain dry.

This afternoon, the strongest thunderstorms should redevelop safely to our southeast, but additional storms are also anticipated to develop over the Sandhills and gradually move southeastward through the evening hours. There isn't great consensus amongst the CAMs on coverage/timing, but I would anticipate at least a few storms to contend with for fireworks displays this evening. Shear is a bit weaker than today, but would still be supportive of at least a couple "low-end" severe storms.

After today, the forecast dries out as we head into next week. It will remain warm, but not excessively hot. Off and on rain/t-storm chances return in days 4-7 (Tuesday night through Friday). Temperatures are favored to remain near to slightly above normal during this period, but longer-range ensembles are hinting at the potential for extreme heat returning for next weekend and into the early part of the following week (July 11-14).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

I have focused on the nearest 24-48 hours and thus the majority of this discussion will focus on that period.

This evening and overnight hours has multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity, I will go into the expectations of each one.

Round 1: This evening 5 PM - 11 PM This area is what we are watching now, primarily development is expected along the Hwy 30/Platte River Corridor between Grand Island and Columbus, NE. Between 1 PM and 2 PM cloud cover, cumulus has grown in areal extent. The vertical nature of this cumulus is still relatively shallow, but the area shows where there is more instability. This area southward along Highway 81 will be will be the favored area for development between 5-7 PM. This activity could be severe and is highlighted by the SPC enhanced risk, and expect a convective watch at some point in time. Severe winds to 70 mph, hail to the size of golf balls are the primary threats. A tornado cannot be ruled out, and flooding, especially for areas that receive multiple later rounds is a threat.

This activity is expected to track south and east into eastern/southeastern Nebraska and into northeastern Kansas as we move towards sunset and beyond.

Round 2: Tonight midnight - 4 AM Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the nose of the Low Level Jet with thunderstorms developing along an east-west line following roughly Interstate 80. There is some question exactly where this activity will develop, but anywhere along and south of I-80 is in the region for being impacted by these thunderstorms. Some of this activity could be severe.

This activity is expected to track southeast with time. Meanwhile Round 3 will be starting off....

Round 3: Tonight 3 AM - Saturday mid-morning Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska and track slowly east during the overnight and early morning hours. This activity is expected to be similar to what we saw this morning, with weak showers/thunderstorms. Severe storms are not anticipated.

How will these storms impact Saturday July 4th? All of these rounds of thunderstorms today will impact how the chance for thunderstorms develops Saturday. The morning thunderstorms will push the potential for afternoon/evening thunderstorms southward into central and southern/eastern Kansas. While we cannot rule out some of the afternoon storms impacting Rooks, Mitchell, and Osborne counties, as of this forecast it's looking optimistic. For the areas that are impacted by Round 3, once it stops raining and clears out, it is expected to be a dry and sunny day. For everyone else, it looks to be a dry and sunny day. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of the Nebraska Panhandle, and they are expected to track southeast with time, similar to the track seen last week. This could impact north central Kansas counties in the late evening and early overnight hours. Overall the picture for tomorrow for north central Kansas will become more clear tomorrow morning after all of these rounds of thunderstorms.

Highs on the 4th are currently forecasted to be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

After the 4th... The end of the weekend and start of the work-week look dry as upper level ridging begins to build in from the southwest. It doesn't last overly long as some stronger disturbances break the ridge down and precipitation chances return for the second half of the work week. Temperatures will generally be seasonal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Lower ceilings/vis that briefly impacted the terminals (mainly EAR) has departed, and VFR conditions are favored for the rest of the period. The main issue will be the potential for thunderstorms this evening. The PROB30 group was maintained from 01-04Z with scattered storms expected to approach from the northwest.

Winds today remain light and will turn from the south to the north during the daytime. Winds then go variable this evening into tonight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.