textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant conditions to start the weekend will continue on into Sunday, just a touch warmer than today.

- Sunday and more so into Monday brings a transition from sharper northerly upper level flow to more zonal flow as the main ridging is broken down. The forecast for Monday evening on through much of the rest of the work will focus on precipitation chances driven by periodic upper level disturbances moving through the area. Timing generally favors the evening-overnight hours...but there is more uncertainty further out in time with location/coverage.

- Highs for Monday climb into the 90s for most of the forecast area (potentially near 100 in the SW)...with more 70s-80s for Tue-Wed, driven by those increased precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Currently through Sunday...

Been a quiet, pleasant start to the weekend across the region...with dry conditions continuing the rest of today into tonight. The pattern across the CONUS is a well-amplified one. Upper air and satellite data showing sharper north-northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains...sandwiched between high pressure centered over the Desert SW with northward- extending ridging and an area of low pressure making its way across the Midwest. Satellite imagery also showing that outside of a bit of scattered lower-level cumulus as well as some higher-level thin smoke from wildfires off to the north- northwest, continues to be plenty of sunshine out there. At the surface, high pressure remains the primary feature, gradually shifting east with time. This is keeping winds north- northeasterly this afternoon, some gusts near 20 MPH, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. Not looking at any surprises as far as temps go, topping out in the mid-80s for much of the area.

Expecting quiet conditions to continue on into this evening and tonight...winds becoming light/variable and eventually more southerly as that surface ridging continues pushing east. Not out of the question that some patchy fog could develop around dawn...mainly across eastern portions of the area where the lightest winds (potentially outright calm) are expected to be. Not expecting widespread coverage, looking like mainly in lower- lying areas.

For Sunday, no notable changes made to the forecast, which remains dry. Models showing continued north-northwesterly flow aloft for the area...but off to our west, a larger-scale trough/low pressure system is working its way into the Pac NW/West Coast, starting to dampen the ridging. As the sfc high pressure system continues pushing east, troughing is deepening over the High Plains, spreading the south-southeaster winds area-wide...far western areas could have some gusts near 20 MPH through the afternoon hours. Temperatures are forecast to be a touch warmer...with mid-80s in the east to low-90s further west.

New work week...

The main story for the upcoming new work week is the transition from an amplified upper level pattern to one that more zonal in nature.

Monday is the day where the brunt of this transition occurs...as models show the larger upper level low pressure system shifting further into central Canada, and the accompanying troughing extending south well into the Rockies. An approaching surface cold front will be working its way south through the day...but models are in good agreement keeping it NW of the forecast area through the afternoon hours. This will bring the potential for breezy south- southeasterly winds, resulting from a tighter pressure gradient...sustained speeds around 15-20 MPH will be possible. Also expecting another bump up in temperatures, with forecast highs around 90 in the east to around 100 in the southwest.

Monday evening, this sfc frontal boundary will be the focus for thunderstorm development...but there is some uncertainty with the overall coverage given the better upper level forcing is better focused to the north. Into the overnight hours, models show a strengthening low-level jet, with the better convergence along its edge remaining focused along our north-northwestern portions of the forecast area. Because of those lingering coverage uncertainties, precipitation chances remain on the lower side, mainly in the 20-30 percent range.

The forecast through the rest of the work week is driven by the potential for periodic upper level shortwave disturbances to pass through the region in that zonal/progressive flow. Models are in decent agreement with the timing...with the better overall chances favoring the evening-overnight hours. More uncertainty lies with the location and coverage...as that will be dependent on the location of any surface/low-level boundaries...which could be greatly impacted by any activity from the previous day. Hard to have ton of confidence in the finer details the further out in time one goes. As far as temperatures go...forecast highs are cooler mid-week, with more 70s-80s for Tue-Wed...warming back up into the 80s-90s by the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with mainly clear skies and generally light winds less than 12 KTS.

Expect northerly winds near 10 KTS this afternoon to diminish over the next hour or two...with light and variable winds expected at both terminals late this evening and overnight as an area of surface high pressure extends from Minnesota southwest across the local area. Expect winds to shift directions and become southerly during the daytime hours Sunday as this area of high pressure moves further east...but generally remain below 12 KTS.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.