textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A mild finish to February across the area (50s/60s) with much cooler temperatures to start the month of March (30s).

- A light wintry mix will be possible on Sunday (20-50%), with overall best chances being well S/SE/E of the Tri-Cities. Impact potential still remains a bit uncertain...but models agree that whatever does fall will be light.

- Seasonably cool to start the week (40s to near 50) with more mild temperatures returning for the middle to latter part of the week (50s/60s).

- A somewhat more active weather pattern through the end of next week, but wouldn't get hopes up for appreciable moisture just yet. Forecast probably sounds more "active" than what it will be in reality. Could even see a few Thunderstorms Thursday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 311 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A few high clouds can be seen on satellite streaming across the local area this morning. With lighter (and more northerly) winds, temperatures to start the day are about 10 degrees belows yesterdays very mild readings.

Expect one final very mild day across the region today as temperatures return to the lower 60s across a large portion of the local area and generally light winds less than 10 MPH prevail. Could see a couple hours of elevated fire weather concerns west of Highway 183 this afternoon where winds will be a bit breezier and RH values will be below 20 percent, but felt the risk was low enough to not introduce to the HWO this morning (albeit it was mentioned in the FWF).

Changes continue to be in store for the local area on Sunday when a cold front pushes across the area from the northeast, but precipitation and precipitation type sill remains in question. Latest NAM is almost completely dry across the local area Sunday with moisture not creeping across the local area until Monday. This would really limit wintry mix type impacts across the local area with the focus being mainly outside the local area to the east and southeast. 06Z run of HRRR also indicates very limited precip locally on Sunday, so despite the 20-50% pops in the forecast, expectations for much precipitation locally (more than a couple hundredths of an inch) is low.

Thereafter...the forecast remains fairly "active" with nearly every period of the forecast having at least small pops across the local area, but again, expectations for much significant precipitation are low. Main timeframe for better chances of precip appear to be Tuesday PM and Thursday PM (when a bit of instability creeps into the local area), but models vary quite a bit and confidence in both timing and amounts are on the lower end.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

As anticipated, today has turned out to be a nearly perfect day for late February...that is, if you don't like winter. Temperatures in the 60s-low 70s, decreasing winds, and plentiful sunshine will continue through late afternoon, so get out and enjoy it if you can.

A surface trough and cold front will swing through the area tomorrow morning...without any precip and probably not even much cloud cover. There's really not much of a surge to the colder air until later in the day...so with continued sunshine over dry/bare ground...could still warm fairly nicely into the upper 50s to 60s. Models have trended a couple deg warmer as such. The bigger difference, though, will be a stiffer Nrly breezy around 10-15 MPH. Still not a bad way to round out February.

March will try to come in like a lion...but really it may be more like a lion cub with not much ferocity or intensity. Our next precipitation chance will come on Sunday, and by then, some colder air will have deepened across the region thanks to surface high pressure sliding by to the N/NE. A weak and quick- moving, Pacific-based shortwave will traverse the region from W to E on Sunday, and models remain consistent in generating a broad swath of light QPF within the warm air advection regime of the system. The wave will carry some upper level moisture with it from the Pacific, but deeper low level moisture will be tougher to come by until the very "last minute", meaning western counties may see very little to no moisture - with better chances E of Hwy 281. Even still, looks like brunt of QPF will focus closer to the MO River Valley where there will be more time for moisture return.

It's tough to pin down specific impacts (if any?), as that requires a firmer grasp of what the dominate precip type will be. Forecast soundings are quite complex and suggest a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain/rain are all possible. Of these options, feel freezing rain is the LEAST likely to occur, and if it does occur, impacts should be minimal given brief window of opportunity as most precip should fall during the daylight hours when pavement temps are warmer. Also, we don't have any snow to help "lock in" that near-sfc cold layer. That leaves snow, sleet, or just cold rain as the other options. Sleet can be an issue, even in small amounts, as it's harder to melt on contact, but I'm not convinced we'll see enough of it with a faster system progression, and again, marginal sfc temps. So...bottom line...don't be surprised to see a light wintry mix on Sunday. May have to watch out for a few slick spots, esp. SE of the Tri- Cities, but not expecting it to be more than a nuisance.

A larger, and somewhat more prominent, shortwave trough will move in from the W late Mon into Tue...and possibly linger in some form or fashion into Wednesday. With that said, general consensus is that the wave will be deamplifying/weakening with time, and remain rather disorganized as it slides through. Specific details of this process are impossible to pin down this far out...but the general signal from the guidance is that this too would favor a lighter end event QPF wise, and not one that blankets the area in appreciable moisture. The current forecast calls for "likely" PoPs in nearly every period SOMEWHERE in our forecast area from Mon night all the way into Wed night, but this is likely more of a function of the uncertainty of when individual vort lobes swing through. I don't think it's going to be as active as the current forecast implies. Precip type remains up in the air, but again, with the overall light/spotty nature to the QPF it may not matter anyway. At the very least, this trough will keep temperatures cooler compared to recent.

Ensembles finally clear out/weaken the trough altogether by late next week, which should allow for at least a 1-2 day warmup back into the 60s - probably for Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 525 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are anticipated through the period with a few passing high clouds this morning and light northerly winds 12 KTS or less likely through the period. Increasing mid/high level clouds anticipated aft 01/10Z...with any precip likely to hold off until after 01/12Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.