textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Next in a series of preciptiation chances working its way in from the SSW this afternoon. Chances will continue to spread their way across the forecast area through tonight into the day on Thursday.

- Additional chances for showers and some thunderstorms will push through the area through Friday and potentially into at least part of the day Saturday. Chances are fairly high and widespread across the area tonight-Fri night...but not looking at a non- stop rainout.

- Models still showing good probabilities (at least 50+ percent over a decent sized chunk of the forecast area...the ECMWF ens data remaining more optimistic/widespread than GFS ens data for probabilities of especially 2 inches or more of total rainfall.

- Overall threat for severe weather through the end of the week remains low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Currently...

Have had a bit of a lull in shower activity through much of the day, following some spotty precipitation that crossed over northern portions of the forecast area late last night into early this morning. Another wave of increased mid-upper lift is bringing the next batch of scattered activity in from the SSW here at mid-afternoon. Flow across the Central Plains remains southwesterly today...upper air and satellite data showing high pressure centered generally over the eastern Srn Plains/western Gulf Coast region and northward extending ridging through the eastern Plains...while the western CONUS remains under troughing, with the main disturbances off the west Baja coast and the Nrn Rockies and other weaker embedded waves. At the surface, not looking at an overly strong pattern across the region, as we sit with a large area of high pressure set up over the Great Lakes/Northeast, and low pressure/troughing along the High Plains. This is keeping winds across the forecast area south-southeasterly, with gusts at times around 20-25 MPH. Cloud cover has been a bit of a nuisance...this morning skies were dominated by widespread low-level stratus. This cloud cover did eventually diminish from SSW to NNE (though a little still lingers in extreme NNE areas)...so while we have had some sun, this next wave is bringing more clouds right back in...so those SWrn areas haven't had the chance to warm quite as much as had hoped. Central/northern areas still have a bit of time to get temps to/just above the 70 degree mark.

Tonight through Friday night...

The main story through the shorter term period through the end of the work week continues with lie with increased preciptiation chances and potential for at least a couple inches of rain in spots. Overall there hasn't been any significant change in the forecast...precipitation chances ramp up tonight, and remain fairly high (70-90 percent in spots) through this period...though it doesn't look to be a non-stop rainout. In the upper levels, models aren't in too bad of agreement in the broader scale...showing mainly southwesterly flow across the region, set up between an increasingly dampened and westward shifting area of high pressure and continued troughing over the western CONUS as another larger-scale system works its way onto the West Coast. Models showing a couple of rounds of showers/storms working through the forecast area...primarly favoring the evening hours on into at least the first part of the following day. There remain plenty of uncertainties in the exact timing...models showing relative lulls in activity, but differ in exactly when they occur and how long they actually last for additional activity fires up/moves into the area.

The overall threat for severe weather remains on the lower side, with models continuing to show not a great chance for better instability to work its way into the area...keeping heavy rainfall the main hazard. Looking at ensemble probability data, the EC ens remain more on the optimistic side for amounts than the GFS...continuing to show widespread probabilities of 80+ percent of at least one inch over much of the forecast area, though the most recent run did note a bit of a southward shift...and still has a decent area of probabilities of 40-70 percent of 2 inches or more. The GFS ensemble data keeps the probabilities of 1+ inch more in the 40-80 percent range, with probability of 2+ inches confined to a narrower swath of only 10-30 percent. Not out of the question there could be some spots with minor hydro issues...but the fact that these totals are spread out and not all falling within say a 6-hr period helps.

This weekend and beyond...

Current forecast keeps the majority of the weekend dry...main uncertainty is on Saturday, with how long activity moving through Friday-Friday night lingers around into the day. Unfortunately there are still plenty of differences to work out between models...some are much slower to push things out of here than others on Saturday.

The dry forecast even continues into the start of the new work week...potentially through all of the daytime hours on Monday, but that's definitely not a certainty, with some models showing precip already returning at some point during the afternoon. The better chances look to hold off further into the evening/overnight hours on Monday...continuing into the day on Tuesday as models show the next notable upper level system moving through. Exactly how this system evolves is uncertain, affecting the timing...the ECMWF is a slower, more organized upper low moving through, keeping precip around on into Wed...vs the more open, progressive GFS which clears things out quicker. Will just have to see how things trend in the coming days.

As far as temperatures go, following 60s-70s forecast for Thu- Fri (which may be optimistic depending on precip trends)...70s-low 80s return for the weekend-Monday, with more 60s returning Tue-Wed.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): At least these first 6-7 hours are high confidence VFR (and mainly dry with perhaps an occasional passing shower)...but beyond that...the remainder of the period is high confidence sub-VFR, as ceiling should consistently prevail MVFR/IFR (mainly IFR) and visibility will likely mainly prevail MVFR due to a combination of steady rain showers and/or light fog. Very late in the period (mainly after 03Z), ceiling could further deteriorate to LIFR. As for winds, they will not be a significant issue with sustained speeds predominantly at-or- below 10KT as direction prevails mainly southeasterly.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details: While confidence is high in VFR through at least 12-13Z and sub- VFR through at least the vast majority of the remainder of the period, the uncertainties clearly lie with just how low ceilings/visibility might get, and how quickly. Have tried to keep things relatively straightforward by following the most- typically-reliable model guidance, which all but insists on IFR ceiling becoming entrenched by mid-late morning at the latest, and then eventually LIFR coming into play mainly after 03Z. Visibility-wise, have overall-lower confidence that it will truly be sub-VFR as consistently as TAFs indicate, but with much of especially the daytime hours likely to feature rather consistent/steady rain showers and the likelihood for light fog to materialize during any drier periods (especially in the evening), felt that prevailing MVFR seemed reasonable.

As for precipitation itself, it could theoretically rain at almost any point during the period, and have at least a PROB30 group for -SHRA indicated at all times. However, general consensus of latest models is that the most persistent rain will fall during the daylight hours, so have focused prevailing -SHRA during that time. While a rogue lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out, actual thunderstorm activity should be quite minimal.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.