textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- One more mild day tomorrow (though not as nice as today) before much cooler temperatures settle in for a few days

- A light wintry mix will be possible on Sunday, with overall best chances (30-50%) being S/SE/E of the Tri-Cities. Impact potential still remains uncertain given model differences in exact precipitation type...but models agree that whatever does fall will be fairly light.

- Seasonably cool and somewhat more active pattern continues through the first half of next week, but wouldn't get hopes up for appreciable moisture just yet. Forecast probably sounds more "active" than what it will be in reality.

- Second half of next week looks mild-warm, with at least one day forecast to spike into the 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

As anticipated, today has turned out to be a nearly perfect day for late February...that is, if you don't like winter. Temperatures in the 60s-low 70s, decreasing winds, and plentiful sunshine will continue through late afternoon, so get out and enjoy it if you can.

A surface trough and cold front will swing through the area tomorrow morning...without any precip and probably not even much cloud cover. There's really not much of a surge to the colder air until later in the day...so with continued sunshine over dry/bare ground...could still warm fairly nicely into the upper 50s to 60s. Models have trended a couple deg warmer as such. The bigger difference, though, will be a stiffer Nrly breezy around 10-15 MPH. Still not a bad way to round out February.

March will try to come in like a lion...but really it may be more like a lion cub with not much ferocity or intensity. Our next precipitation chance will come on Sunday, and by then, some colder air will have deepened across the region thanks to surface high pressure sliding by to the N/NE. A weak and quick- moving, Pacific-based shortwave will traverse the region from W to E on Sunday, and models remain consistent in generating a broad swath of light QPF within the warm air advection regime of the system. The wave will carry some upper level moisture with it from the Pacific, but deeper low level moisture will be tougher to come by until the very "last minute", meaning western counties may see very little to no moisture - with better chances E of Hwy 281. Even still, looks like brunt of QPF will focus closer to the MO River Valley where there will be more time for moisture return.

It's tough to pin down specific impacts (if any?), as that requires a firmer grasp of what the dominate precip type will be. Forecast soundings are quite complex and suggest a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain/rain are all possible. Of these options, feel freezing rain is the LEAST likely to occur, and if it does occur, impacts should be minimal given brief window of opportunity as most precip should fall during the daylight hours when pavement temps are warmer. Also, we don't have any snow to help "lock in" that near-sfc cold layer. That leaves snow, sleet, or just cold rain as the other options. Sleet can be an issue, even in small amounts, as it's harder to melt on contact, but I'm not convinced we'll see enough of it with a faster system progression, and again, marginal sfc temps. So...bottom line...don't be surprised to see a light wintry mix on Sunday. May have to watch out for a few slick spots, esp. SE of the Tri- Cities, but not expecting it to be more than a nuisance.

A larger, and somewhat more prominent, shortwave trough will move in from the W late Mon into Tue...and possibly linger in some form or fashion into Wednesday. With that said, general consensus is that the wave will be deamplifying/weakening with time, and remain rather disorganized as it slides through. Specific details of this process are impossible to pin down this far out...but the general signal from the guidance is that this too would favor a lighter end event QPF wise, and not one that blankets the area in appreciable moisture. The current forecast calls for "likely" PoPs in nearly every period SOMEWHERE in our forecast area from Mon night all the way into Wed night, but this is likely more of a function of the uncertainty of when individual vort lobes swing through. I don't think it's going to be as active as the current forecast implies. Precip type remains up in the air, but again, with the overall light/spotty nature to the QPF it may not matter anyway. At the very least, this trough will keep temperatures cooler compared to recent.

Ensembles finally clear out/weaken the trough altogether by late next week, which should allow for at least a 1-2 day warmup back into the 60s - probably for Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions through the period with little to no cloud cover. The main aviation "concern" will be the wide range of wind directions - anywhere from NWrly this afternoon, to variable this evening, to E-SE overnight, then back to NW/N behind a cold front Saturday morning. With that said, speeds will remain seasonably light at around 7-12kt for all but this evening when they'll be a bit lighter.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.