textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Cluster of storms continues to slide northeast through the far southeast corner of the forecast area mid-late afternoon. There is still the potential for some activity to be strong to severe...but once it slides to the east, the rest of this evening/overnight looks dry.

- Recent widespread rainfall along with lighter winds will bring the potential for at least some patchy fog late tonight-early Friday morning, with models currently focusing the best chance across our Neb. counties.

- There is the potential for strong-severe storms again on Friday afternoon-evening...but there is uncertainty with timing and the overall coverage. Recent models have shown more of the daytime hours being dry, holding better chances off until the evening hours...but even then the coverage may only be scattered.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Currently through tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to impact roughly the southeastern half of the forecast area here during the early-mid afternoon hours...driven by a MCV working its way through north central KS. This complex will remain the primary concern through the rest of this afternoon...moving into an area what has been under cloud cover most of the day, with temps only in the low 70s, but dewpoints aren't far off. Not surprisingly, low-mid level lapse rates aren't great, which is helping keep storms from growing much...even with MLCAPE of around 1000-1500 j/kg. Deeper layer shear is also not great...but lower level shear is better, with the SPC Meso page show 0-1km values around 15-20kts. Being this closer to the better mid-upper level forcing along with low LCL values, certainly can't rule out an isolated brief tornado as this activity makes its way through and eventually out of the forecast area. Hi- res models have been consistent today showing the brunt of this activity clear the forecast area by 00Z, perhaps some isolated activity hanging on another hour or two after that...then keep the rest of the overnight hours dry.

A weak surface pattern lingering through the overnight hours keeps winds on the lighter side...more easterly across our Nebraska counties, more southern across our Kansas counties. Main change to the forecast through tonight was to add the mention of patchy fog thanks to the recent rains combined with the overall lighter winds...with models focusing the best chances mainly across our Neb. counties.

Friday...

Models are in good agreement showing generally zonal upper level flow in place across the region to end the work week...with a good chunk of the daytime hours potentially dry. If fog does develop tonight, that could linger into the mid-morning hours...but shouldn't stick around much beyond that. Expecting to see generally partly cloudy skies...with a good jump in high temperatures, reaching well into the 80s and lower 90s. Main focus as we get into the afternoon hours will be with the placement of a sfc frontal boundary...and by early-mid afternoon, models aren't in too bad of agreement with its general location...running SW to NE roughly along a Harlan County to Merrick County line. This frontal boundary is expected to be the focus for additional thunderstorm development. Upper level forcing is lacking...but models show strong instability developing with dewpoints near 70 nosing into at least eastern portions of the forecast area, with some showing MLCAPE values potentially exceeding 3000 j/kg south of that frontal boundary. Deeper layer shear is also on the lower side, models generally showing around 25-30kts. If anything over the past few days, models have trended back on activity through the afternoon hours...holding activity off into the evening hours, with lift aided by an increasing low-level jet. Even then, and on into the overnight hours, models at least at this point show pretty limited coverage.

This weekend and on...

No notable changes were made to the forecast for this weekend on into next week...with periodic thunderstorm chances continuing. Looking at the big picture, there continue to be details that need ironing out between models. Another large upper level low/troughing looks to work its way onto the West Coast this weekend...helping draw a low pressure system northward out of the Srn Plains. The better chances with this system look to focus more on Sunday...but there are some broad differences with model QPF over the forecast area, with some showing the brunt of forcing and precip potentially sliding just off to our east. The start of the new work week...main question lies with how amplified the upper level pattern becomes, and are we more influenced by ridging trying to build north out of the Srn Plains or that western CONUS larger scale troughing. Confidence in precip chances lowers the further out you go in the forecast. Forecast highs in the 80s-90s...potentially climbing up near the 100 deg mark by the middle of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR to IFR conditions expected tonight at KGRI/KEAR. LIFR conditions can't be ruled out in patchy fog/stratus. Patchy fog and low stratus are currently developing over the area, with surrounding airports recording reduced visibility and MVFR-IFR conditions. Fog looks to be fairly shallow, bringing uncertainty on how long the fog will last in any spot. Models continue to support a window of LIFR fog/stratus, though the location and duration continues to vary. Given model spread and the shallow nature of the fog, opted to keep mentions of Fog at or above 2SM in TEMPO groups with the densest fog/lowest ceilings most likely 09-13z. Fog and status clear during the mid morning hours, with Visibility/skies becoming VFR for the afternoon-evening. Late in the TAF period there is a chance for a scattered thunderstorm, but confidence is too low (20%) to include in the TAF at this time.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.