textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms work their way northeast into and through the forecast area through tonight. While severe weather is not expected, some locations could potentially pick up another 1-2 inches...and may lead to some flooding issues if over areas that already picked up 2-5 inches over the last 2 days.

- Chances for isolated-scattered activity lingers into the day on Saturday, mainly focused across ares east of Highway 281. Things finally dry out for Sunday.

- Much of the day on Monday currently looks dry, but another low pressure system digging south along the West Coast will eventually work its way through the heart of the area in the Tue-Thu timeframe. Depending on the model, activity could linger around even into Friday. Plenty of details to iron out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data continuing to show southwesterly flow in place this afternoon across the area...set up between high pressure sitting over the TX Gulf Coast, with ridging extending northward through through MN, and troughing over the western CONUS. This troughing is being driven by a couple of systems, one just working its way into the Pac NW, the other making its way northeast out of the Desert SW/Srn Plains. During the daytime hours so far today...any scattered showers had pushed east during the early morning hours, with little other than drizzle left behind. This has mainly affected the ENE half of the forecast area...where satellite has shown more stubborn cloud cover and area obs have shown ceilings remaining under 1k ft. Winds across the area remain south- southeasterly, and overall light, as we remain between sfc high pressure over much of the eastern CONUS and troughing/low pressure through the High Plains into TX. By the time its all said and done, forecast highs won't work out too bad...NErn areas under more cloud cover have struggled to get out of the mid 60s, further south has had a few peaks of sun, and lower-mid 70s have worked their way in.

This evening through the weekend...

Seeing some showers and storms moving northward through south- southwestern KS, driven by increased lift associated with that upper level shortwave disturbance roughly in the NM/CO/OK/TX border area. Models remain in good agreement showing this disturbance continuing on that northeastward track, bringing increasing chances for precip to the forecast area this evening/tonight. Aided later this evening by an increasing SSWrly low-level jet, forecast has pretty high chances going (70-90 percent)...with models continuing to focus the overall best chances roughly over central/eastern portions of the forecast area. Will be better chances for thunderstorms, with models showing perhaps up to 1000 j/kg nosing into the area...and while some storms could be on the stronger side, the overall threat for severe weather remains low. The main concern with these precip chances would be with the additional rainfall...if areas heavier rates happen to track over any areas that were part of the swath of 3-5 inches from the past 2 days, could result in some flooding concerns.

Through the overnight hours into Saturday morning...if the higher res models hold onto their trend, have the higher precipitation chances hanging on too long in the forecast. Have 60+ percent chances lingering across areas east of HWY 281 through sunrise Saturday...some models say activity cloud push east by closer to 09Z. This is talking showers/storms...not the potential fog/drizzle/low ceilings that could linger hours longer.

Have diminishing preciptiation chances during the day on Saturday...but couldn't totally dry out the afternoon hours, as models have been pretty persistent showing another weaker push of mid-upper level potentially sparking off some afternoon showers/storms across areas mainly east of Highway 281. Especially for the western half of the forecast area...models showing better potential for more sun...the further east you go, that will be tougher to do, especially with the chance for additional precip developing during the afternoon. Because of that uncertainty with clouds/precip, not a ton of confidence in the forecast highs for Saturday...which currently sit in the low 70s in the NE to low 80s in the far SSW.

Forecast finally dries out for Sunday...and models remain in good agreement with that, as upper level ridging builds in across the area...set up between areas of low pressure affecting each coast. Expecting generally partly cloudy skies, highs mainly in the 70s.

New work week...

This upper level ridging centered through the Plains is short- lived, with models in good agreement showing southwesterly flow returning on Monday, driven by that western CONUS upper low that looks to dig into southern CA. Models showing that as that low digs further south, a separate northern stream shortwave disturbance will be pushing through the Central/Nrn Rockies will help drive increasing precipitation chances. Do still have a small area of low chances (20 percent) over far WNW portions of the area Monday afternoon, but the overall better chances look to hold off until Monday evening- overnight.

A potentially more active/wet period returns from Tuesday on...still plenty of things to iron out in the coming days. Will say that compared to 24hrs ago, there is better agreement between models with the main upper low, its evolution and trek across the Central Plains. At 12Z Tuesday, this upper low looks to be roughly in the CA/AZ/NV border area...trekking further into AZ/NM by sunrise Wednesday...then turning a bit more northeast into CO by 12Z Thursday. Additional shortwave disturbances out ahead of the system, and eventually just greater larger-scale lift as it be moves in keep precipitation chances around each day through the mid-week...and because there are details to iron out, those chances are very broad in nature. Later Wednesday and more into Thursday the upper low itself looks to cross through the Central Plains...but the exact track/timing needs some refinement in the coming days. Agreement with the track isn't too bad, potentially bringing the upper low right over the forecast area...differences are larger with the timing...as the ECMWF is much slower, keeping it around well into Friday, vs the GFS which largely clears the forecast area Thursday night. This could be another longer duration, heavier rain maker...will just have to see how models trend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR to LIFR conditions are expected from this evening through 16z SAT owing to overnight rain, thunderstorms, and patches of mist / fog. The best timing for thunderstorms as opposed to plain rain will be from 03z - 07z. Pockets of lingering mist and fog can also continue through around 16z on SAT, which would keep conditions LIFR. Saturday afternoon looks to erode our persistent stratus deck to MVFR levels, however a few thunderstorms will be possible through evening. Some capping looks to be a potential issue with these storms' development, so have utilized PROB30 for this group. Surface winds will stay between southerly and southeasterly and will remain weak through Saturday afternoon, but become variable on Saturday evening.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.