textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain transitions to snow Thursday afternoon-Evening though uncertainty remains on timing.

- Snow accumulations of dusting-1" are expected though accumulations of 2+ inches are possible (10%) if rain turns to snow quicker and/or snow rates are higher than currently forecast.

- Light snow (1" or less) possible across north central Kansas Friday afternoon-evening.

- Cooler weather through Saturday, with above normal temperatures returning next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 425 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

This evening through Saturday....

It's a beautiful day outside today, with near-record to record warm temperatures across the area as temperatures currently sit in the upper 50s to mid 60s (25-30 degrees above normal!). Aloft the area is under zonal to slightly southwesterly flow, with a shortwave trough currently located over Baja California. Increasing cloud coverage ahead of the shortwave trough will help keep temperatures in the 30s overnight, near climatological/average highs for this time of year!

Thursday and Friday...

The main concern/focus this forecast period is the potential for light snowfall Thursday/Friday. As the aforementioned shortwave trough ejects into the Plains Thursday morning, a band of rain will lift into the area. Rain is expected to reach southern- southeastern portions of the area around sunrise, with most of the area seeing rain by mid-late morning as rain wraps around the surface low. The heaviest rain is favored to fall across southern-southeastern portions of the area where accumulations of 0.25-0.5" are possible by the early afternoon.

Cooler air wraps into the system Thursday afternoon-evening, allowing for a northwest-southeast transition to snow. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty on how quickly this transition will occur with models ranging from the early afternoon (12z ECMWF, NAMNEST), to the evening (12z HRRR). Temperatures Thursday afternoon around 40 degrees supports the potential for dynamic cooling to result in a fairly quick transition to snow across northwest portions of the area. Another area of uncertainty is in regards to how quickly snow will accumulate. With temperatures expected to remain in the upper 30s-low 40s Thursday afternoon, most snow that falls during this time period is favored to melt (minor accumulations are possible on elevated surfaces), though heavier rates of snow could overcome the warmer surface temperatures. By the late evening-early overnight hours, any precipitation falling will likely be as snow as temperatures continue to cool. Snow comes to an end from northwest to southeast Thursday night as the low/system moves into the Midwest.

Most areas are favored to see a trace/dusting to 1" of snow, with 2" possible in locations that see a quicker transition to snow or heavier rates of snow. It is possible areas could see higher than 2" though confidence in this occurring and the location is low (10% or less) given overall forecast uncertainty. Snow will be fairly wet/heavy/slushy due to surface temperatures near-above freezing when snow falls. Though winds gusting 20-30mph are possible throughout Thursday-Thursday Night, the heavy/slushy nature of the snow will likely limit/inhibit blowing snow.

Friday will be cooler, with highs near their climatological normals, in the upper 30s to low 40s. The next disturbance moves into the Plains Friday afternoon-evening, bringing a chance for light snow to portions of north-central Kansas. Models indicate that the best chances for snow will remain south of the forecast area, though portions of Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties could see up to an inch of snow.

Saturday...

Seasonable weather continues on Saturday with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. A deepening surface low over the Midwest will result in northwest winds gusting 25-35mph during the day. Additionally, scattered snow showers are possible during the daytime hours though accumulations look to be light (under 1"). Falling snow combined with gusty winds could result in a period of reduced visibility.

Sunday Onwards...

Northwest flow builds over the area on Sunday, as temperatures climb back above normal into early next week. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s, with lows in the 20s-30s. Another round of cooler-seasonable air looks to arrive during the middle of next week though this doesn't look to be associated with any significant precipitation at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Clouds filling in from the southwest tonight will stay in place through the day Thursday. Ceiling will gradually lower through the morning, approaching MVFR levels between 18-21z and brief IFR levels between 22-0z. Visibilities will also fall between 18 and 0z as rain transitions over to snow. Visibilities may drop as low as 1-4SM during this period of time. Light and persisting rain showers will fill into the area between 12 ad 18z, with snow chances on the rise through and after 21z.

Winds tonight will stay light, with directions flipping towards the north for Thursday following an early morning cold frontal passage. Winds will mainly stay between 10-15kts thorugh the day Thursday.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.