textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- What a difference a day will make! MUCH warmer (potentially daily record-setting) temperatures return today (highs well into 60s most places)...and still unusually-mild Saturday (but probably not as warm as today).

- Although we're not talking brutally cold, a seasonably-strong cold front slices southward through our forecast area late Sat night-Sunday daytime, ushering in much colder temps, winds gusting 35-45 MPH and MAYBE a quick-hit of minimal, but wind- blown snow.

- A slightly colder than normal airmass hangs around through Monday before temperatures moderate back up a bit with highs mainly 40s especially Tues-Wed. At this time, Mon-Thurs appears dry.

UPDATE

Issued at 503 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES WITHIN THE 7-DAY FORECAST AS A WHOLE: Not so much a change as it is a "pesky uncertainty" (and possible weakness in our current forecast), but overall forecast models (mainly ECMWF/GFS) are looking a LITTLE more interesting/favorable for a quick-hit of wind-blown snow accumulation during the day Sunday. Obviously still a few days for this snow potential to trend upward/downward, but right now accumulation appears to top out only around one-half inch (and probably most favoring the northwest half of our forecast area (CWA).

Should things trend about the same going forward, this event "probably" wouldn't be worthy of a formal Winter Weather Advisory, but wind-blown snow (35-45 MPH gusts) and potential for just enough snow to make roads slick means we still need to keep an eye on this one to make sure it doesn't trend worse. Previous shift already introduced the likelihood for moderately- strong winds Sunday to our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID), and the latest version now also touches on the minor snow potential. At least for now though, our official forecast isn't very "scary"...with snow chances (PoPs) only running 20-30 percent.

-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS: - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM: It took a while (actually well into the later evening in our far eastern CWA), but thanks to the onset of steady westerly (downslope) breezes, the gloomy widespread very low clouds/fog that "ruined" Christmas weather for much of our CWA yesterday has long-since vacated our area well to the east, leaving behind a mix of clear skies and limited/thin high level cirrus. Breezes in most spots currently are 5-10 MPH from the west, with overnight low temps on track to eventually bottom out somewhere in the 30s most places (although several sites could struggle to drop below 40 if breezes don't back down a few MPH).

In the "big picture" situation, we reside under broad quasi- zonal (west-east) flow aloft, while at the surface our switch to fog-clearing westerly breezes resulted from the passage of a fairly weak low pressure system tracking from the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest.

- TODAY: What a different kind of day we have in store after yesterday's "grunge"! Although it won't be pristinely sunny (at least limited amounts of high level cirrus passing over (especially this afternoon), the lack of low clouds/fog and westerly/southwesterly breezes should actually allow us to much more fully reach warming potential. About the only "catch" is that mixing heights today will be relatively shallow, but even so, have fairly high confidence that the vast majority of the CWA at least gets into the low-mid 60s, and even some low 70s especially in a few of our western-most Kansas counties. That being said, did tone down our high temperature forecast SLIGHTLY from previous forecast (especially far east-northeast counties), but again, still 60s most places and we are forecasting Grand Island/Hastings to SLIGHTLY break records for Dec. 26th highs (see separate CLIMATE section below for details). Otherwise today, wind speeds will average only 5-15 MPH (perhaps some sporadic gusts around 20 MPH mainly in western/northwest counties), with direction transitioning from westerly this morning to more southwesterly this afternoon. One small possible "catch" that will need monitored this morning is a small chance that an axis of low clouds could try developing over northeast NE between sunrise and late morning and Perhaps try catching our extreme northeast CWA (Polk County area near Columbus)...but right now this seems unlikely and satellite shows no signs of it yet.

- THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: This should be a quiet weather night with light-but-steady south breezes (mainly 5-10 MPH) under a fair amount of passing high clouds. Low temps were changed very little...aimed 32-37 most areas. The only "catch" would be IF the far western fringes of a batch of low clouds/possible fog that is looking increasingly- likely to affect far eastern NE/northeast KS...ends up drifting a bit farther west than anticipated and infiltrates our far eastern counties along Highway 81. Right now this is not considered likely, but is worthy watching as it could mean a somewhat close call with fog potential far east.

- SATURDAY DAYTIME: While it will almost assuredly be another day with well-above normal temperatures for this time of year, there are a few factors that also likely assure that readings will fall at least roughly 5 degrees short of those today. For one thing, there will be more high level cloud cover (skies solidly partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times). Secondly, mixing heights will again be rather shallow with weak surface winds (mainly only 5-10 MPH) from varying directions (starting westerly/southerly but perhaps trending more northerly late in the day). If anything, highs were nudged down very slightly, but still calling for upper 50s-low 60s most of the CWA, and some mid-upper 60s mainly in KS zones.

- SATURDAY NIGHT (through sunrise Sunday): Weather changes get underway as the leading edges of a large- scale/positively-tilted upper trough moves in from the west. Pre-midnight, our forecast is currently dry, but models such as the HRRR suggest there could be some spotty rain showers breaking out. Then post-midnight and into early Sunday AM, a seasonably-strong cold front will pick up steam as it blasts southward through our CWA, it's arrival signified by 35-45 MPH northerly gusts. Our far north-northwest CWA could see a touch of snow try to develop toward sunrise, but it appears that most light snow potential should hold off until the official Sunday daytime period. Temperature-wise, a very mild Sat evening will give way to steadily falling temperatures late in the night that will only continue falling beyond sunrise Sunday in strong cold air advection. However, at least through roughly sunrise, official overnight low temps are projected to range from low- mid 20s north/northwest...to low-mid 30s south-southeast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

The lingering fog has been slow to retreat this afternoon, especially for areas near and east of HWY-281. The continuation of some pockets of fog with visibilities down to as low as 1/4 mile has provoked the need for an additional Dense Fog Advisory this afternoon/evening. The Dense Fog advisory remain in effect until 6PM tonight for Nebraska counties along and east of HWY-281 and along and south of I-80 including Merrick and Polk counties. The low-level stratus continues to hang the surface, only gradually rising/mixing out. As result, highs today have not been able to punch up much further than the 40s to low 50s. Lows tonight will be expected to settle in the 30s.

A weak shortwave trough aloft grazing the Central/Northern Plains tonight will help clear out some of the clouds for tomorrow (at least for the first half of the day). At the surface, a weak low (~1004mb) is in the process of crossing through the region. This feature will help guide steady (5-15 MPH) westerly to northwesterly oriented winds tonight and for the first half of Friday as it departs over to the east. The gentle westerly downsloping flow Friday (adiabatic warming) paired with clearing skies will make for the perfect ingredients needed to warm temperatures near and potentially into record territory. Highs Friday are forecast to reach the 60s to potentially low 70s across a few KS locations. These are the warmest temperatures the area will likely see for a while.

Another maturing surface low coming down from the Rockies Friday night into Saturday will later be responsible for an end of the week cold front that will be ready to shake things up for the start of next week. Before then, the steady westerly winds on Friday will turn southerly as the low approaches. Highs for Saturday (upper 50s to upper 60s) will become the last of the consecutive days with anomalously warm temperatures. The strong and powering cold front, mention earlier, is now expected to barrel through during the afternoon/evening hours on Saturday, flipping winds to the north along behind it.

Conditions from Saturday to Sunday will change notably behind the front. Temperatures, influenced by the rush of cold air, will drop around 25-35 degrees. Highs for Sunday are forecast to range the mid 20s (far northern areas) to the low 40s (far southern areas). In addition to the cold, breezy winds out of the north will blow between 20-30MPH with gusts as high as 35-40+ MPH during the afternoon hours. Lows sunday night will move towards the the mid single digits to low teens (wind chills between -10 and 5 degrees).

Though not quite yet a complete guarantee (20-30% chance), flurries to a few tenths of an inch of light snow accumulations could fall Saturday night to Sunday morning in a couple of places behind the front (mainly across northwestern lying areas). Confidence remains more wishy-washy than definite at this point in time. Synoptically speaking, a compressed and negatively tilted trough aloft looks to have the potential to provide at least some synoptic-level assent (relatively strong vorticity advection near the base of a PV anomaly) to give enough support to churn out some flurries to light snow showers. These snow showers would likely originate across the Nebraska Panhandle and Northern Nebraska, tracking southeast through the night/morning. The main question still to be answered is if such showers will either maintain or miss the area altogether.

The forecast for next week beyond Sunday, continues to remain fairy dry as the area will likely sit underneath the eastern side (northwest flow region) of a slow moving longwave ridge. The "biggest" change overall in the long-range forecast has been the narrowing confidence for yet a colder day Monday (upper 20s to mid 30s). Temperatures also now appear to rebound a few degrees heading into the middle of next week (mainly the 40s TUE/WED) with winds oscillating from the west to north at times.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Westerly winds of 5-10kts will shift to the south overnight. It is possible that marginal LLWS develops early saturday morning given weak winds (5-10kts) at the surface and winds of 30-35kts around 2000ft, but it is to marginal to maintain in the TAF at this time. Light winds (5kts or less) shift to the west-southwest Saturday morning. FEW-SCT cirrus/high clouds are possible overnight, becoming sct-bkn Saturday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 503 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

- REGARDING RECORD WARM TEMP POTENTIAL DEC 26-27: We're down to our final two days of possibly tying/breaking daily records for warmth (both daytime highs and overnight lows). Today (Dec. 26th) is clearly our best chance for reaching record daytime highs, while both today and Saturday (Dec. 26-27) could see record-warm lows.

Below is where our latest forecast (or already-observed values) stand versus existing records at Grand Island and Hastings airports, the two NWS-maintained sites for which we issue official Record Event Reports (RERGRI/RERHSI). Please note that * indicates that our latest forecast/observed value would tie or break an existing daily record:

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES | Latest Forecast or Observed Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 26: 64 in 2005 | Forecast: 66* December 27: 64 in 1937 | Forecast: 60

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 26: 65 in 2005 | Forecast: 66* December 27: 64 in 1937 | Forecast: 61

_________________________________________________________

- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | Latest Forecast or Observed Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 27: 34 in 1905 | Forecast: 37*

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI) December 27: 37 in 1957 | Forecast: 37*

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.