textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Forecast remains dry through the daytime hours on Monday. An approaching surface cold front will provide a focus for storm development...with some of this activity pushing east into the area during the evening-overnight hours.

- Additional chances for storms continue on into Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly focused on the late day-evening/overnight hours. Some uncertainties remain, as activity could be impacted by how sfc boundaries/lingering cloud cover evolve from the previous nights.

- Not out of the question that some storms Mon-Tue could be on the stronger side, at this point there doesn't look be an overly organized severe weather threat across our area.

- Scattered precipitation chances continue on through the end of the week, with lowering confidence in the details the further out you go.

- Highs on Monday are back up in the 90s-near 100...cooling Tue- Wed into the 70s-80s with increased precip chances. Highs look to return back solidly into the 90s by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Currently Through Tonight...

Overall been a nice end to the weekend across the area...dry conditions continue, with satellite imagery showing no shortage of sunshine...though still seeing some hazy skies due to wildfire smoke streaming in from the north. A well-amplified upper level pattern remains in place across the CONUS this afternoon...with upper air and satellite data showing northerly flow across the forecast area. The Central Plains is sitting between a ridge axis extending from the Desert SW northeastward toward MN...becoming more dampened/tilted further east thanks to a low pressure system moving through central Canada...and a trough axis extending from eastern Canada south to the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, high pressure continues to gradually shift off to the east...but is keeping winds light across easterly portions of the area. To the west and northwest, a trough axis and frontal boundary are becoming better organized across the High Plains into the western Dakotas...bringing more solidly southerly winds to central and western areas, with occasional gusts near 20 MPH. No big surprises as far as temperatures go...forecast of mid-upper 80s east to low-mid 90s west remains on track.

Quiet conditions continue on into this evening and overnight. Due to the continued deepening of the sfc low/boundaries off to our WNW, not expecting a drop off in winds tonight...remaining southerly around 10-15 MPH. Lows look to drop into the mid 60s for much of the area.

Early to Mid-Week...

Getting into the start of the new work week...overall there hasn't been any significant changes to the forecast. During the daytime hours on Monday...models remain in good agreement showing an upper level disturbance working its way along the US/Can border into the Nrn Rockies/High Plains...the forecast for our area remains dry through 00Z. This system will be driving a surface cold front south with time...and models are still in decent agreement with the timing...showing at 00Z the placement of this front runs roughly from far SWrn NE north through the Sandhills and into central SD. Ahead of this front during the daytime hours...expecting gusty southerly winds and a bump up in temperatures. Sustained speeds around 20-25 MPH and gusts around 30-35 MPH are not out of the question...with highs around 90 expected in the east, around 100 in the WSW. During the mid-late afternoon hours...the RH/wind combo hits near- critical levels across far WSW portions of the area...but with fuels unfavorable for rapid fire growth, no formal headlines were considered...just something to be aware of.

Main question for the evening and overnight hours Monday lies with thunderstorm chances...still plenty of uncertainties with the overall coverage/impact. Models showing at least scattered activity firing along that surface boundary to work its way into WNW portions of the forecast area...aided by convergence along an increasing SSWrly low-level jet. With time, most models are keeping coverage of activity generally scattered in nature with its eastward shift...likely hindered by the fact that the better upper level forcing is better focused to our north and that mid-level/temps is another element storms would have to overcome. As a result, the higher precip chances in the evening (40-60 percent) are focused across far WNW portions of the area...then spread east but drop into the 20-30 percent range overnight.

As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday...models are in good agreement showing that the upper level pattern has transitioned to more zonal in nature having further dampened the main ridging. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue both days...as additional waves of upper level shortwave energy push through the region. Still plenty of uncertainties with the details...as timing/location of chances will be greatly influenced by activity that happens the previous evening/overnight...and how that impacts the ultimate placement of the main surface cold front or any other lingering boundaries. The most uncertainty with those details lies with Tuesday/Tuesday night...as what happens then may provide enough of a reinforcing push to focus better chances further south for Wednesday afternoon/overnight. With the increased cloud cover/precipitation potential...highs for Tue-Wed cool some...with Tuesday currently in the mid-70s to mid-80s, Wednesday in the mid-70s to lower-80s.

At this point, none of the days Monday-Wednesday are included in the SPC severe weather outlooks...though Monday/Day 2 is pretty close right along our NWrn edge. As mentioned above, there are some things working against Monday evening- overnight...and though models on Tuesday show the potential that shear may be a bit better, the overall upper level forcing isn't the best...and just too much uncertainty in the details for Wednesday. Not out of the question that some storms could be on the stronger side...but at least at this point it's not looking to be an organized severe weather threat.

Late Week Into Next Weekend...

Looking at Thursday on into next weekend...models showing the ridging trying to reamplify over the western CONUS, but between an area of low pressure over the Hudson Bay area and another working toward western Canada...additional systems moving through the pattern prevent much strengthening. Models show the upper level pattern across the area in varying degrees of northwesterly flow...and while the forecast has some scattered low-end (mainly 20 percent) chances, confidence in those are certainly not high at this point. Warmer temperatures also look to work their way back in...with highs potentially solidly back in the 90s by next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions anticipated through the period with some marginal LLWS possible at both terminals during the early morning hours Monday.

Expect steady south winds near 10 KTS to continue into the evening hours as the local area remains sandwiched inbetween an area of surface high pressure to our east and surface low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies. While the surface winds will mostly decouple overnight, the pressure gradient aloft will continue to strengthen, with marginal LLWS becoming possible at KEAR around 03/06Z...and spreading east toward KGRI by around 03/10Z. Surface winds will then increase during the morning hours across the area as mixing in realized, with gusts near 25 KTS possible at both terminals by midday. No more than a few passing high clouds are expected through the period with southerly winds remaining too strong to justify the mention of even patchy BR at either terminal overnight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.