textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- One of the more active stretches of weather we've seen thus far this spring expected this weekend, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible.

- Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe. There is a Marginal to Slight (level 1 to 2) risk on Saturday, with a potentially greater risk (up to level 3, enhanced) possible on Sunday...but this comes with considerable uncertainty.

- In aggregate, these various rain chances should lead to appreciable moisture for the vast majority of the forecast area by Monday AM. Latest ensembles suggest most places should receive at least 0.50", and there's certainly a chance that swaths of the area could get 1-1.5", or more, by Monday AM.

- High temperatures over the next 7 days will range from the 50s to the 70s. Low temperatures are expected to range from the low 30s to low 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 445 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Vast majority of this discussion will be focused on the next few days since that's where the most impactful weather looks to be.

A surface ridge axis is currently overhead and leading to very nice conditions (bonus points for being a Friday!) featuring relatively light winds and temperatures in the 60s-lower 70s. The ridge axis will continue to shift E/SE, which will allow for increasing SErly return flow. This increase in winds is already noted in observations just to our W and there remains a small window for near critical fire weather conditions for areas W of Hwy 183 where the increasing winds overlap with slowly rising, but still sub-30%, RHs between around 5-9PM. Most of the night should remain dry, though held onto some low PoPs in the far W/NW near an approaching cold front.

This front will make gradual NW to SE progression on Saturday, but then likely stall out at some point during the afternoon as a sfc low deepens along NW KS/SW NE border area. Exactly where this stall occurs remains a bit uncertain...and it will have a huge affect on the sensible weather for a given location. Areas from around Lexington to Ord may remain stuck in clouds and chilly N wind all day and temperatures only in the 40s to 50s... whereas Osborne to Geneva area could warm well into the 70s amidst broken cloud cover and warm/moist Srly flow. The heart of the forecast area, including the Tri-Cities, could have sensible weather that's just about anywhere in between. Agree with recent hi-res data that shows iso-scat shwrs/weak storms developing along the front Sat AM, with a gradual uptick in intensity towards midday. Question will be just how much of an increase we see, especially across Neb zones, given somewhat lackluster heating and instability. While not a textbook case by any means, wouldn't rule out some funnels/weak tornadoes in south central NE given proximity to potential differential heating and decent 0-3km CAPE that overlaps strong ambient low level vorticity associated with the slow-moving front. Sometimes this can support rapid low level stretching and weak tornadoes.

More likely scenario for robust convection will be new development on the southern flank of existing convection into north central Kansas in vicinity of a sfc low and associated triple point during the mid to late afternoon. These areas could support greater instability and MLCAPE of at least 1000 J/kg by late afternoon. Deep layer shear would be strong enough, and favorably oriented relative to dry line, to support supercells with large hail. Have increased hail size potential in messaging up to around golf ball size given potential storm mode, steep mid level lapse rates, and large chunk of the CAPE being within favored hail growth zone. Model UH tracks support a hard right turn and a potential increase to already favorable low level hodographs for tornadoes with any late aftn-early eve supercells. Appears the main limiting factor to a more robust tornado threat could be marginal BL moisture as TDs remain in the 50s. Overall coverage of convection into north central and central KS may be less than further north, but this would allow what does develop to be more intense. Storms should clear the area to the SE by around midnight.

Attention then turns to even better and more widespread shower and storm chances on Sunday. Will start off by saying there is considerable uncertainty in how things will play out. Model differences are high and appears that increasing elevated convection Sunday AM could throw a significant wrench into afternoon destabilization potential. Also, the primary upper trough/height falls appears a bit late for optimal overlap with peak daytime heating - suggesting maybe the traditional late afternoon and early evening window for severe weather could be fairly quiet locally and focused further S/SE into axis of greater instability. Really it will just depend on how widespread AM elevated convection is and where any potential outflow/differential heating boundaries set up. My personal experience is that more often than not, early day convection is more detrimental to severe aftn/eve storms than what models suggest...especially in late April north of a warm front. Warm air advection will be pretty strong Sat night-Sun AM with a veering low level jet beneath a coupled upper jet. This should be a pretty good opportunity for some widespread, much-needed rainfall with perhaps a marginal severe hail threat, as well. If this activity doesn't clear the area until mid to late afternoon (as the 18Z HRRR shows), then the window to recover would just be too small (in time and space) to recover. In this scenario, the "main show" would be along and S of I-70.

Under this scenario, some of our highest severe chances might actually be during the overnight Sun night with the arrival of the main upper trough and northward surge of warm/moist airmass on a strong low level jet. Obviously, a late night trough passage isn't optimal for robust surface based severe storms, but some elevated supercells with large hail could certainly be in the realm of possibilities. This could perhaps coincide with arrival of convection from the W that developed along the Front Range and grew upscale into the strengthening low level jet. Again...just a lot of uncertainty and potential scenarios and even with the large coverage of the Enhanced Risk, don't want people to think Sunday is a forgone conclusion of a classic significant severe weather outbreak *for our area*. It still could be, but I think the pattern/timing lends itself to one where the greatest strong tornado threat lies along/S of I-70.

Regardless of exact details...think we're looking at three solid chances for rain between Saturday afternoon and Monday AM. Feel fairly comfortable in saying that most people should expect at least a half inch over the weekend, and let's hope that at least one of the elevated convection potentials (Sat night or Sun night) pans out such that swaths of 1-1.5"+ also occur.

Rest of the forecast is seasonably cool with off and on rain chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

LLWS is possible mainly in the 05-10Z timeframe tonight. Surface winds turn from the southeast to northeast by Saturday morning, then gradually turn more northerly during the day on Saturday.

Cloud cover increases tonight into Saturday morning. MVFR and potentially even IFR ceilings are favored to arrive in the 15-16Z timeframe on Saturday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms then arrive and continue through most of the afternoon hours before clearing out.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.