textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty west to southwest winds and lowering relative humidity values will keep the potential for critical fire weather conditions around through early-mid evening. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect area-wide through 10PM this evening.

- Not out of the question for some isolated preciptiation to develop/push east across the area, exiting early this evening to the east...a rumble of thunder or two is also possible. Not expecting any notable rain out of this activity, of more concern would be the potential it helps to drag down stronger winds...gusts closer to 55 to 60 will be possible through early evening.

- After well above normal high temps (record breaking) and fire weather concerns today, winter makes a return for Wednesday night into the day on Thursday. Potential for accumulating snow makes a return, currently favoring the northern half of the forecast area. Gusty NW winds accompanying this snow will be possible as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Currently through tonight...

Not really any surprises so far today, a dry, warm, gusty day across the forecast area. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data are showing larger scale troughing over the western CONUS and broad ridging over the east...leaving the Central Plains with southwesterly flow. An embedded shortwave trough axis is swinging NE out of the High Plains, roughly orientated from central MT southeastward into western KS. The accompanying sfc trough axis is making its way into western portions of the forecast area, with a cold front not lagging too far behind. Ahead of these boundaries, winds remain south- southwesterly, switching to the west-northwest with the passage of that initial boundary. Gusts through the rest of the afternoon will have the potential to climb exceed 45-50 MPH, mainly on the backside of that boundary. Expanded the mention of patchy blowing dust across the rest of the forecast area, obs along our western edge have dropped down to just a few miles at times. Hi- res models continue to show the potential for some isolated precipitation along this boundary over the next 2-4 hrs, and it's not out of the question there could be a rumble of thunder or two, so did insert that mention into the forecast. With the lower levels being so dry/increased mixing across the area, think it'll be tough to get more than sprinkles/trace...the bigger concern lies with whether this activity can drag down stronger winds to the sfc, any of that activity will have the potential to result in gusts closer to 55-60 MPH.

The time frame with the best potential for those strong wind gusts, precipitation, fire weather concerns, and dust is now through early to mid evening. The Red Flag Warning currently goes through 10PM this evening, with relative humidity values improving some as temps cool...but not expecting a significant improvement, as forecast RH values only climb into the 40s by 12Z Wed. In addition, while westerly wind gusts will taper off some, gusts around 25 MPH will be possible through the overnight hours. Highs have panned out close to as expected, with 3PM highs in the low-mid 70s...both Grand Island and Hastings have already broken the their daily high temperature records for today (GI record was 72, HSI was 74). Both look to also set new record warm low temperatures for today, as it's unlikely they'll drop below this morning's temps of 42 at GI (record was 41) and 44 at HSI (record was 37) by midnight tonight.

Mid to Late Week...

Looking at Wednesday, the dry forecast continues on through at least the daytime-early evening hours...with models in good agreement showing upper level shortwave ridging sliding through the region, set up between today's system departing off to the NE and the next on working its way through the Nrn/Central Rockies. Winds will be lighter...with the area losing influence from sfc low pressure moving into MN and deepening low pressure over eastern CO...bringing a switch from westerly winds to start the day to more ESErly winds by evening time. It'll be cooler, but still above normal, with highs in the low-mid 60s. Airmass remains dry, allowing for relative humidity values to fall below 20 percent...but the overall lighter winds (afternoon gusts closer to 15-20 MPH possible) will help keep greater fire weather concerns at bay.

Late Wednesday night and moreso into the day on Thursday, the first of a couple of upper level disturbances will remind us that it's still winter...bringing chances for accumulating snow. Hasn't been any significant changes in models...showing the system moving through today stalling out over the western Great Lakes, forcing this next system to take more of an easterly track across the region. Models continue to show a sharper, narrow band of snow...continuing to mainly favor the northern half of Nebraska. Questions remain with just how far south snow extends, likely ending up with a sharper gradient than what's currently in the forecast. Chances in the 50-70 percent range remain focused along/north of I- 80 (best chances along/north of HWY 92), dropping to around 20 percent along the NE/KS state line. Plenty of details to iron out in the coming days...EC ensemble data showing a 60+ percent probability of 1 in or more across our northern half...GFS ensembles top out closer to 40-50 percent. In addition to the accumulating snow chances, this system will usher in a reinforcing cold front, bringing gusty NW winds. Those with travel plan to the north will want to keep on eye on how this trends in the coming days. Even colder highs are expected, topping out near 30 in the north to lower 40s in the south.

Dry conditions return for the day on Friday, but another upper level disturbance will be making its way through the region Friday night into Saturday. There have been more differences between models/runs with this system...with timing and location...but this one currently looks to favor the southern half of the forecast area with accumulating snow. Highs for both Friday and Saturday remains in the 30s-near 40 range.

Early next week...

Not a lot of focus on the latter portions of the forecast period, as models continue to be in pretty good agreement showing upper level ridging becoming a bigger driver once again...drying the forecast out for Sun-Tue. Expecting a gradual warm up, with highs Tuesday back in the 50s-near 60.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1121 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Westerly winds blowing between 15-20MPH tonight will occasionallygusts as high as 25-35 MPH. In addition, 45-50kts of LLWS out of the west-northwest tonight will remain in place until closer to 12z. Winds for Wednesday will lighten some to near 10MPH with occasional gusts as high as 15-20MPH. Wind directions through the day will steer towards a southerly direction during the day, followed by an easterly direction later in the evening.

A few clouds should not drop lower than 6,000-9,000ft through the period, leaving a fairly high confidence of maintaining VFR conditions. A few broken to overcast mid-to-upper level ceilings (>10,000ft) will break in between mainly 16-0z. Precipitation is not expected.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.