textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Very dry air remains in place today, but winds will be lighter. Consequently, still seeing elevated to near-critical fire danger through this evening, but not as bad as yesterday.

- Converted the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory for Thursday/Thursday evening along and north of Hwy 92. Expecting generally 2-5 inches of snow across advisory area, combined with northwest winds of 20-25 mph gusting 30-40 MPH. Not much snow expected south of I-80 (Around 1" or less)

- Another weak, quick-hitting disturbance may bring light snow accumulations (around 1", or less) further S to the rest of the forecast area Friday PM into Saturday AM.

- Cool Friday-Sunday (mainly 30s Nebraska, lower 40s Kansas). Pattern moderates next week with warmer 50s and 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Rest of Today... RH values will remain very low this afternoon and early evening until we start cooling off around sunset. At 2 PM this afternoon the RH values at most locations were between 15 and 20 percent, which may allow any sparks to easily turn into fires. Thankfully the wind is much lighter today and only 10-20 mph. Consequently, we do not need any Red Flag Warnings today.

Tonight... A strong cold front will begin sinking south across the forecast area this evening, mainly after 6 PM. This will turn the winds from southerly to northeasterly. We will have cold air advection all night long and especially during the day on Thursday. The northeasterly winds will increase and shift to northerly Thursday morning and then eventually northwesterly by Thursday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected around mid- day on Thursday at 20-25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

Again most of the snow >1-2" is expected north of I-80 and especially along and north of Hwy 92 (2-5"). Things could still shift a bit, but right now areas south of I-80 across southern Nebraska look like only a trace to around 1". Little to no snow is currently expected across north central Kansas.

Our official forecast indicating 5" amounts across our north leans closer to the highest 10% amounts (7-8"). The lower end, lowest 10% ensemble amounts in the Ord area are only around 1". Experience tells me that these high end amounts are overdoing it for most locations and that the more accurate forecast for our northern higher end amounts will be (3-5"). Therefore, went with a Winter Weather Advisory rather than a Winter Storm Warning. Although 3-5" of snow north of Hwy 92 along with strong winds will make for some pretty difficult travel by Thursday afternoon.

Timing... Most areas will have little to no snow at daybreak. Then we will see snow beginning in most northern locations during the morning hours, peaking in the afternoon and then diminishing during the evening hours.

Uncertainty... There could be a narrow band of 5-7" embedded within the more general 3-5 band. If this happens we many need to upgrade a few counties to a Winter Storm Warning, most likely location for this would be our northern most counties around the towns of Ord and Greeley.

Friday... A second shortwave trough will swing across the central plains bringing another chance for snow, but this one appears lighter, generally flurries up to 1", mainly focused on Friday evening and overnight. Cold weather persists, mainly in the 30s, but there are also models that keep us cooler, highs below freezing in the 20s.

Saturday and Sunday... Cool and dry northwesterly flow will keep highs only in the 30s northeast to the 40s southwest. However, this forecast is at the upper end of the ensemble forecast with more potential that we could end up colder, for example, highs may only be in the 20s if the colder models are correct.

Next Week... Monday could still be cool, but a transition day with more uncertainty. Confidence increases in nice weather returning by Tuesday and Wednesday as most models bring highs back up into the 50s and perhaps even 60s. We will most likely dry out again next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Periods of light snow will be possible between 12-5z today with occasional bursts of heavier snow between 17-2z. Visibilities during the heavier bursts of snow may occasionally observe IFR visibilities down to close to 1-2 miles. Cloud bases will drop between 12-18z with MVFR ceiling possible after 16z and through 4z. Low end MVFR to brief IFR ceilings (30-40% chance) will be possible between 19-1z.

Winds, currently out of the northeast and blowing near 20MPH with gusts as high as 25-35MPH will gradually back towards a north to later northwesterly direction this afternoon and tonight. Wind gusts are expected to peak between 35-40MPH between 16-21z. Winds will lighten through the later afternoon and evening hours.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night for NEZ039>041. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night for NEZ046>049-060>064. KS...None.