textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Current area of scattered preciptiation will continue pushing east through the rest of the daytime hours today...with a relative lull into the overnight hours for roughly the northern half of the forecast area. Additional precipitation chances through tonight look to be focus closer to the NE-KS state line.

- More widespread precipitation looks to expand across the forecast area closer to sunrise Wednesday into the daytime hours. During mainly the afternoon-early evening hours, a lull in activity pushing north into southern portions of the forecast area may allow for better instability to work its way in...and its not out of the question a few strong-marginally severe storms may develop (mainly near/south of the state line).

- By the time this rain event is said and done Thursday...still looking at a fairly widespread area of 1-3 inches, with embedded higher amounts...but the trend in several models today is focus the better chances for the higher amounts across SSE portions of the forecast area. Still some uncertainties in the exact location of the highest swaths, a few models trended notably south. No changes made to the area-wide Flood Watch that runs through 7PM Thursday.

- Friday on into early next week still expected to bring relief from the rain...with the forecast for Fri-Mon still dry. Highs generally remain in the 60s, some overnight lows in the 40s. Overall pleasant conditions currently expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently...

The first of several rounds of precipitation to impact the forecast area made its way through the area last night into early this morning, dropping a swath of roughly 0.25-0.75in across the NWrn quarter of the forecast area. The next round is currently working its way northeast across the Central Plains...and will continue to do so through the rest of the day. Upper air and satellite data showing these shortwave disturbances being ejected north east out ahead of the main western CONUS troughing and low pressure spinning over the CA/NV/AZ border area...while remnants of Hurricane Polo are working their way northeast into northern Mexico, providing an increased moisture source into the overall pattern. At the surface, it's an overall weak pattern across the forecast area, sitting between broad high pressure over the eastern CONUS and frontal boundary extending southwest from northern MN into the Desert SW. This is keeping winds generally southerly, and light around 5-10 MPH.

Tonight through Thursday...

The main story for this 7-day forecast period remains squarely focused on this short term period through mid-week, with the entire forecast area getting additional (but not necessarily welcomed) rainfall...with the potential for quite a gradient across the area. There hasn't been any significant changes in the general evolution of the next couple of days...with models remaining in good agreement showing the remnants of Polo becoming increasingly phased into the main upper trough axis/low sitting over the Desert SW. Through this evening/tonight, while the main upper low looks to only slide east into the AZ/NM border region by around 12Z Wed, that shortwave energy left over from Polo is expected to continue on a northeastward trek out ahead of the main low...driving the next round of precipitation chances across our forecast area.

Once the current batch of activity pushes further east...hi-res models showing a continued lull into tonight, especially across the northern half of the forecast area. Increased low-mid level forcing (closer to 850-700mb) will keep better chances tonight focused across areas near the NE-KS state line...with some lingering, but important, uncertainties between models with exactly where that axis sets up...important as that looks to be the be first heavier band of rain to develop. Closer to, mainly after 12Z Wednesday, models show that more widespread swath of precipitation to push north through the forecast area...with the potential for a more distinct drop off on both the north and south sides than currently shown in the broader scale forecast. That could make the afternoon hours a bit more interesting on the southern side, with models showing a push of better instability also working its way north with time. Still some uncertainty with just how far north that lull in precip/better instability push and sfc frontal boundary gets, but it's not out of the question that some additional convective enhancement/redevelopment occurs...and the southern half of the forecast area remains in the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area. Not looking at widespread severe weather...but gusty winds/hail possible, and with a sfc frontal boundary lingering in the area and more easterly winds, an isolated tornado is a concern as well. The overall main threat remains with heavy rain...and with such a good fetch of moisture for this pattern to tap into, any activity will be efficient rain-makers, even moreso for anything with any strength...and rates of 1-2 inches per hour is certaintly not out of the question.

Further into the evening/overnight hours Wednesday and Thursday, the main push of the upper level system looks to pass through the Central Plains...again there is still some lingering overall minor uncertainties with its exact track. Models aren't in too bad of agreement showing the upper low filling/weakening as it passes through during the day on Thursday...with precipitation chances dropping off fairly quickly during the second half of the day. Again some lingering uncertainties with exact timing...but current forecast as all but the far SSE dry by evening.

By the time its all said and done...still looking at a fairly widespread area of 2-3 inches, with localized swaths of higher amounts (potentially much higher depending on the model). One of the main changes in the models today is with increasing agreement focusing on the area with the better potential for those higher amounts (totals closer to 4-5 not out of the question)...running that axis mainly across the SSErn half of the forecast area. Some models have a more marked southward shift in the axis, clipping an even smaller portion of our SSErn forecast area (showing more of an eastern KS and points NW issue). A result of both trends...a notably tighter rainfall gradient from north to south. Especially the further north one goes from I-80, chances of even getting an additional one inch drops off quickly...a few models show it may even be a struggle to get another half-inch through the rest of the event. Areas roughly I-80 to HWY 6, lot of uncertainty still remains here due to lingering questions about where the banding sets up as then main low moves out. Where more of the support for the location of the heaviest axis currently sits (for the entire event) isn't too displaced from the area that picked up 2-5 inches last week...and with crops not soaking up the moisture anymore, lack of sun/wind and time...still a lot of saturated area out there for problems to develop. Made no changes to the Flood Watch that runs through 7PM Thursday...though depending on how models trend, if they stick with that more southern focus, possible that northern portions of the watch could be dropped early.

Friday on into early next week...

Don't be alarmed by the bright light at the end of the tunnel...it's the sun, which will finally make a more widespread return for the end of the week, along with drier conditions. With main focus being tonight-Thursday, not a ton of time spent on Friday through Monday...but the main story is the forecast for this period is DRY, and currently there continues to be good agreement between models with that. Overall it'll feel more like fall...highs through the weekend are forecast to mainly in the 60s (some low 70s in KS this weekend), along with some cooler lows...Fri night-Sat AM currently has widespread mid- upper 40s. Winds through the weekend remain on the lighter side...overall looking to be a pleasant stretch of weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low ceilings and Fog tonight will be expected to impact both terminals tonight. Cloud bases are expected to remain sub-VFR for the remainder of the period with IFR classifications soon to arrive (before 9z). As the fog tonight thickens (possible to drop under a mile at times), LIFR conditions are bound to consume much of the time between 9z and 16z. Cloud bases will not be expected to rise above 2,000ft through the rest of the afternoon and evening Wednesday.

As for visibilities, a few models are more aggressive with fog tonight showing visibilities as low as 1/4 to 1 miles between a majority of the period between 9z-16z. The only factor that could limit the fog intensity would be from the clouds acting as an insulator or from a rogue passing shower.

As the day transitions from the morning to afternoon, precipitation chances increase steadily. Light and persisting rain is expected to fill a majority of the day (mainly between 18-3z). Though a few isolated weak thunderstorm could become mixed in during the afternoon/evening, heavy rainfall (reducing visibility to as low as 2-4 miles at times) is expected to be the main hazard. Winds should remain light to variable at times tonight with steady (5-15kt) east to northeasterly winds prevailing for much of the day Wednesday. An occasional gust as high as 20kts could be possible at times in the afternoon and evening.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NEZ039>041-046>049- 060>064-072>077-082>087. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>076-082>085. KS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005-006.