textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog may continue to develop across mainly western and northern portions of the area overnight into Monday morning.

- Light rain showers may develop and move across primarily western and northern portions of the area overnight into Monday morning.

- Isolated thunderstorms may move across northwestern portions of the area this evening into tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area Tuesday morning and afternoon. Some of these storms may be strong to marginally severe.

UPDATE

Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Rain showers are moving southeast across northern Nebraska and severe storms are across southern Kansas and northern/central Oklahoma. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are light out of mostly the east. Temperatures across the area are in the 50s and 60s. Some light rain showers may move across northern and western portions of the forecast area overnight (primarily north of I-80 and west of Highway 281). Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the 50s. Some of the overnight showers may linger into the morning hours past sunrise. Some patchy fog has already started to develop and may continue into the morning hours across mainly western and northern portions of the area. Widespread dense fog is not expected at this time but will continue to monitor. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this afternoon with winds becoming southeasterly. High temperatures today will mostly be in the 70s. An isolated thunderstorm or two may move across northwestern portions of the area this evening into tonight (primarily along and north and west of the Tri-Cities area). Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and low 60s.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase and move in from the north/northwest Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon as a shortwave moves overhead and a cold front approaches. Some of these storms have the potential to become strong to marginally severe with the risk increasing to the southwest. Hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 MPH would be the main threats with these storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Tonight...

Following yesterday and last night's scattered storms, a band of low- level stratus continues to blanket a majority of the area. This cloud coverage has helped keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s for today. The main concern of the day will be from the presence of a mid-to-upper level shortwave disturbance that looms just northwest of the area. Though some question remains on how the excessive cloud coverage today may impact the instability, modeled soundings still continue to show an elongated profile of weak instability through much of the low-to-mid levels from the presence of steady lapse rates holding between 6-7C/km (contributing to 750-2,000J/kg of MUCAPE). In addition, a deep moist layer with 30-50kts of bulk shear this afternoon completes the base checklist needed for storms. The main detractor that may storms from reaching severe criteria would be from the presence of low-level convective inhibition (stable air) that storms would need to overcome.

Though activity may not be too widespread this afternoon/evening, a strong to marginally severe storm could still be feasible to break into the area from the west/northwest. A few storms, some of which severe, have already erupted this afternoon out across western Nebraska. These storms across the next several hours will march southeast and down into possibly a few western portions of the area. The main uncertainty will be how long lasting those storms will remain severe as they march towards a slightly less favorable environment (some question to how the cloud coverage earlier today may of inhibited the storm environment). As result, the main severe threat will be more concentrated closer to the west/southwest portions of the area between the 5-10PM window. The primary storm hazards from these storms will be hail up to the size of ping pong balls with gusty winds near 60MPH. Though an isolated tornado could be feasible, generally the threat remains low given the fact that storms are expected to be on the downward trend as they arrive from the west.

In addition to the severe storms racing in from the Nebraska sandhills this evening, a mesolow moving down into northern Nebraska tonight may offer up a few more weaker thunderstorms and showers. These storms will drop down into a few northern portions of the area overnight (mainly into a few places north of I-80). The mesolow will gradually drift east through the morning hours on Monday, collecting any last last remaining storm with it.

Monday and Tuesday...

Pressure rises Monday from the exit of the shortwave disturbance will help snuff out most precipitation chances for Monday, although a spotty or isolated shower/storm coming in from the northwest can't be totally ruled out. Besides the low precipitation chance, highs will remain fairly similar from today (70s), although a few spots in north central Kansas could overachieve expectations and reach the low 80s. Winds will be expected to remain light (5-15MPH) under the influence of higher pressure with wind directions out of the southeast.

The potential for severe weather could return Tuesday as another shortwave trough sneaks into the greater Northern Plains region. Several medium to long range models including the NAM, ECMWF and GFS are starting to narrow down on the conclusion for a later morning to early afternoon MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) developing along a southeastward passing cold front. The current projection of this system has been mainly confined to initialize somewhere across northwest to north central Nebraska area, moving towards the southeast through the rest of the day. Though CAPE may be somewhat limited across the early portions of the day (500-2,000J of MUCAPE possible), 40-55kts of bulk shear with dewpoints in the 60s (from the influence of the south to southeasterly surface winds), may be supportive enough for storms to develop strong to severe criteria (>1" hail or >58MPH wind gusts).

The SPC has included the full area in a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe weather outlook for Tuesday with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) clipping mainly Rooks county in our north central Kansas forecast area. The main uncertainty at this point in time is knowing where/when the thunderstorms fire Tuesday. Depending on the speed of the front and the time of day that storms initialize, the severe risk could change. Otherwise, highs are expected to remain in the 70s to low 80s as some sort of cloud coverage is possible to remain around a majority of the area (keeping the potential for widespread coverage of 80+ degree temperatures low).

Wednesday and Beyond...

The potential for a pop up or scattered thunderstorm/showers returns almost every day in the long-range forecast, although the best potential lies Wednesday night (30-60% chances) and Thursday night (40-60% chances). This seamanly wet period comes as an upper-level low across southwest Canada interacts with a southwest U.S. ridge. Numerous break/disturbance will break out of the upper-level flow, keeping the area underneath sporadic storm activity. Widening forecast confidence past Tuesday keeps detail limited for now for any specific individual day.

As far as temperatures go, the general trend is for highs to climb again, potentially reaching the 90s in a few areas by the end of the week. It is uncertain how the upper-level flow will break out of its more unstable pattern, though long-range ensemble forecasts tend to favor the exit of the low pressure over Canada around the middle of the week. This would leave some space for the southwest U.S. ridge build, potentially influencing a end of week warm up.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Satellite imagery showing patches of at times MVFR clouds spread across much of the area, keeping the potential for marginally- MVFR ceilings around at least a couple more hours this afternoon at both terminal sites...otherwise the rest of the period is currently VFR. TAF is dry through much of the period, with increasing chances as we get closer to sunrise Tuesday on through the end of this period...still quite a bit of uncertainty with models with how storm coverage ends up evolving, so kept mention as a PROB30 group. This activity could end up bringing lower ceilings...will see how models trend for upcoming forecasts. Winds through the period look to remain generally southeasterly and on the lighter side, topping out around 10-15 MPH...with the potential for gusty, more variable winds with any storms that do happen to impact the terminals, kept that confined to the PROB30 group.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.