textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will be the transition day between the hot & dry conditions of yesterday, and the return of wintry conditions on Thursday. Very dry air remains in place today, but winds will be lighter - so fire weather conditions will be mainly elevated to near-critical.

- General model consensus continues to indicate the potential for a narrow, but heavy, west to east band of snow. Areas N of I-80 appear to be most at risk, and this is where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the potential of 5-7" of snow, combined with moderate northerly winds gusting 30-40 MPH.

- Another weak, quick-hitting disturbance may bring light snow accumulations (around 1", or less) further S to the rest of the forecast area Friday PM into Saturday AM.

- Pattern moderates Sunday and Monday, and then warmer 50s and 60s return for the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 415 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Primary forecast change with this package is the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for Valley, Loup, Howard, and Greeley Counties for Thursday into Thursday evening.

Today will serve as a transition day between the unseasonably warm and very dry conditions of the past couple of days, to a much colder and more wintry few days from Thursday into Saturday. Dew points remain very dry in the teens across much of the area this morning, and don't expect much improvement/incr during the day today as very dry air remains locked in well into the southern Plains. Plentiful sunshine and still mild air behind yesterday's Pacific-based cool front should still allow for temperatures to rise into the 60s this afternoon. This will yield widespread minimum relative humidity values in the 15 to 20 percent range. This is solidly below critical criteria. However, and fortunately, winds won't be nearly as strong as yesterday and will be the primary limiting factor to a more serious fire weather concern today. Latest plan view and forecast sounding guidance suggests most gusts should remain 20-25 MPH, or less - so more in the "near-critical" range. Still would not advise any burning, and fires may still behave aggressively, but it's NOT as bad as yesterday.

A more substantial change in airmass will arrive from the N tonight as our next disturbance digs through the central Rockies. The general consensus from most model guidance remains consistent in depicting a rather narrow, but potentially intense, band of snow that will develop W to E across the region late tonight, and focus on the daytime through evening hours on Wednesday. While there remains some discrepancy in the exact latitude of this band (NAM and a southern outlier, and 00Z HRRR a northern one)...recent versions of the EPS and GEFS, along with deterministic solutions such as the EC and regional Canadian, place the main band between I-80 on the south, and the NE/SD border on the north. Also, there are some indications that the heaviest swath of snow - potentially in the 4-6" (locally higher?) may be quite narrow N to S at around only 40-60 miles. Thus, even small adjustments in the placement could have significant implications on exact amounts for any given area. In addition to the potentially moderate to heavy snow, guidance also remains consistent that the snow will be accompanied by elevated Nrly winds gusting 30 to 40 MPH. This could easily be enough to lead to some blowing and drifting snow and poor visibilities - esp. considering some hourly QPF data that supports a few hours of nearly 1"/hr snow rates within the ultra narrow snow band.

All of these factors were enough to warrant the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for our four counties N/NW of Grand Island. Impacts will be felt by daytime travelers, particularly from the late morning through evening hours. Hopefully newer model guidance can hone in on the exact location later today, and would expect we'll need a buffer Winter Weather Advisory at least a row of counties south of the current watch.

Another, weaker, disturbance if forecast to track across areas further S that miss out on the worst of Thursday's system sometime in the Friday night through Saturday morning time frame. This system will not be as strong/organized, nor have as much wind as Thursday's system...but could still see a rather broad swath of light snow amounts (around 1", or less) for areas along and esp. S of I-80.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Currently through tonight...

Not really any surprises so far today, a dry, warm, gusty day across the forecast area. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data are showing larger scale troughing over the western CONUS and broad ridging over the east...leaving the Central Plains with southwesterly flow. An embedded shortwave trough axis is swinging NE out of the High Plains, roughly orientated from central MT southeastward into western KS. The accompanying sfc trough axis is making its way into western portions of the forecast area, with a cold front not lagging too far behind. Ahead of these boundaries, winds remain south- southwesterly, switching to the west-northwest with the passage of that initial boundary. Gusts through the rest of the afternoon will have the potential to climb exceed 45-50 MPH, mainly on the backside of that boundary. Expanded the mention of patchy blowing dust across the rest of the forecast area, obs along our western edge have dropped down to just a few miles at times. Hi- res models continue to show the potential for some isolated precipitation along this boundary over the next 2-4 hrs, and it's not out of the question there could be a rumble of thunder or two, so did insert that mention into the forecast. With the lower levels being so dry/increased mixing across the area, think it'll be tough to get more than sprinkles/trace...the bigger concern lies with whether this activity can drag down stronger winds to the sfc, any of that activity will have the potential to result in gusts closer to 55-60 MPH.

The time frame with the best potential for those strong wind gusts, precipitation, fire weather concerns, and dust is now through early to mid evening. The Red Flag Warning currently goes through 10PM this evening, with relative humidity values improving some as temps cool...but not expecting a significant improvement, as forecast RH values only climb into the 40s by 12Z Wed. In addition, while westerly wind gusts will taper off some, gusts around 25 MPH will be possible through the overnight hours. Highs have panned out close to as expected, with 3PM highs in the low-mid 70s...both Grand Island and Hastings have already broken the their daily high temperature records for today (GI record was 72, HSI was 74). Both look to also set new record warm low temperatures for today, as it's unlikely they'll drop below this morning's temps of 42 at GI (record was 41) and 44 at HSI (record was 37) by midnight tonight.

Mid to Late Week...

Looking at Wednesday, the dry forecast continues on through at least the daytime-early evening hours...with models in good agreement showing upper level shortwave ridging sliding through the region, set up between today's system departing off to the NE and the next on working its way through the Nrn/Central Rockies. Winds will be lighter...with the area losing influence from sfc low pressure moving into MN and deepening low pressure over eastern CO...bringing a switch from westerly winds to start the day to more ESErly winds by evening time. It'll be cooler, but still above normal, with highs in the low-mid 60s. Airmass remains dry, allowing for relative humidity values to fall below 20 percent...but the overall lighter winds (afternoon gusts closer to 15-20 MPH possible) will help keep greater fire weather concerns at bay.

Late Wednesday night and moreso into the day on Thursday, the first of a couple of upper level disturbances will remind us that it's still winter...bringing chances for accumulating snow. Hasn't been any significant changes in models...showing the system moving through today stalling out over the western Great Lakes, forcing this next system to take more of an easterly track across the region. Models continue to show a sharper, narrow band of snow...continuing to mainly favor the northern half of Nebraska. Questions remain with just how far south snow extends, likely ending up with a sharper gradient than what's currently in the forecast. Chances in the 50-70 percent range remain focused along/north of I- 80 (best chances along/north of HWY 92), dropping to around 20 percent along the NE/KS state line. Plenty of details to iron out in the coming days...EC ensemble data showing a 60+ percent probability of 1 in or more across our northern half...GFS ensembles top out closer to 40-50 percent. In addition to the accumulating snow chances, this system will usher in a reinforcing cold front, bringing gusty NW winds. Those with travel plan to the north will want to keep on eye on how this trends in the coming days. Even colder highs are expected, topping out near 30 in the north to lower 40s in the south.

Dry conditions return for the day on Friday, but another upper level disturbance will be making its way through the region Friday night into Saturday. There have been more differences between models/runs with this system...with timing and location...but this one currently looks to favor the southern half of the forecast area with accumulating snow. Highs for both Friday and Saturday remains in the 30s-near 40 range.

Early next week...

Not a lot of focus on the latter portions of the forecast period, as models continue to be in pretty good agreement showing upper level ridging becoming a bigger driver once again...drying the forecast out for Sun-Tue. Expecting a gradual warm up, with highs Tuesday back in the 50s-near 60.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions likely through the overnight hours, becoming MVFR-IFR late in the TAF period.

SCT-BKN High level clouds persist into the overnight hours, but ceilings steadily lower overnight as a system moves into the area. Ceilings fall below 5000ft by the mid-morning hours as snow approaches the area. There remains some uncertainty on how far south the snow makes it, as it could stall just north of the TAF sites. There is at least enough confidence to warrant a PROB30 mention, with a prevailing group used to indicate higher chances for snow just past the TAF period. MVFR ceilings are likely with any falling snow, with MVFR to IFR visibilities in falling snow (caused by blowing snow). Snow accumulations look to remain fairly light, under an inch for both KGRI and KEAR.

West-Southwesterly winds become light this evening as they shift to the east. Winds strengthen overnight and become northeasterly, sustained around 15kts and gusting around 25kts. Winds shift to the north after sunrise, gusting 25-30kts.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ039-040-046-047. KS...None.