textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures reaching the 80s-90s are forecast today, well above the normal highs for this time of year in the mid 50s-near 60. High temp records for both Grand Island and Hastings are at risk.

- These hot temperatures and gusty west-northwest winds will bring near-critical to critical fire weather conditions to the area this afternoon...and a Red Flag Warning has been issued from noon-8PM.

- A strong cold front moving through on Thursday will bring gusty north winds to the area (exceeding 40 MPH possible)...as well as highs only in the 50s for Friday. Temps rebound back into the 70s-80s by Sunday.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns will continue through the end of the week into early next week...the day of greatest concern outside of today is currently Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Currently...

Quiet conditions continue to reign across the area through the early morning hours. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data show continued northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains, still sitting just east of the main ridge axis extending from the Desert SW north into the Rockies. Elsewhere across the CONUS, broad troughing remains over the East Coast, while a disturbance is making its way through the Pac NW. Satellite data showing variable cloud cover across the forecast area, most spots are partly-mostly cloudy. The surface pattern across the region remains on the weaker side, with troughing along the High Plains...keeping our winds SSrly, with most speeds around 10 MPH.

Today...

Main story for today remain with the hot temperatures expected across the region, with record highs at risk (see climate section below for more). Overall hasn't been any notable changes in the forecast for today...which remains a dry one, with models showing little change in the upper level NWrly flow. The current generally southerly winds in place across the area will be switching to the west-northwest during the first half of the day...as a subtle upper level shortwave disturbance passing to our north pushes a sfc frontal boundary through the forecast area. This boundary doesn't usher in cooler air...if anything the more westerly/downsloping component to the winds helps mixing potential/tapping into the warmer air aloft. Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 50s-near 60...and forecast highs for this afternoon are in the mid 80s to low 90s. A drier airmass with dewpoints dropping into the 30s is forecast to result in widespread relative humidity values this afternoon dropping into the 10-20 percent range (lowest across the western half). Main question mark as far as fire weather conditions go is with winds/gusts...at least near-critical conditions are expected across the area. There is the potential for critical conditions to develop, and did issue a Red Flag Warning from noon- 8PM. See fire weather section below for more information.

Thursday...

The above mentioned upper level disturbance over the Pac NW is shown by models to keep pushing east with time, further breaking down the ridging over the Rockies/Plains tonight on through Thursday. Not any significant changes made to the forecast, which continues to have low-end (20-30 percent) precipitation chances sink south through the region as the system slides through...models continue to be spotty at best with the coverage of any precipitation. Unfortunately, any precipitation that does develop looks be pretty light. Of more notable impact from this upper level system is the stronger surface cold front that will be sinking south through the region...ushering in stronger northerly winds. Current model timing has the front along the far northern edges around 12Z...with northerly winds CWA- wide by early afternoon. Having a daytime frontal passage makes for a tricky temperature forecast, and confidence remains on the lower side, especially for central portions of the area. Current forecast highs are in the mid 60s north (early day passage) to low 80s south (later passage). Sustained northerly winds of 25-30 MPH and gusts exceeding 40 MPH are expected behind this front.

Friday on into early next week...

The cooler air accompanying Thursday's frontal passage impacts Friday the most...with highs forecast to 'only' top out near normal in the mid 50s. Though an even drier air mass builds in, allowing for low relative humidity values...lighter winds look to keep fire weather conditions on the lower side.

Dry conditions are forecast to continue on through the weekend, with a warmer airmass building back in...bringing highs into the 60s for Saturday and 70s-80s for Sunday. At this point, the next day with increased fire weather concern looks to be Saturday.

A bit of a pattern change to more zonal/southwesterly flow through the first half of the new work week looks to bring better potential for upper level shortwave disturbances to the region...and precipitation chances. At this point it's hard to have a ton of confidence in the timing/coverage, as some models are more spotty in coverage than others...but at least chances are out there. Highs in the 70s-80s look to continue on into Mon-Tue, potentially cooler for Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

This afternoon and Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are currently sitting in the 60s and 70s, warmest across southwestern portions of the area. Winds are breezy at times gusting 20-25mph. Near-Critical fire weather conditions remain possible through the afternoon-early evening hours where the lowest humidity values overlap with breezy winds (most likely along/west of Highway 183). Lows tonight will be in the 40s under partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday...

Aloft, the upper level ridge over the west moves into the Plains on Wednesday. This will result in another record warm March day across the area. Highs soar into the upper 80s to low 90s, aided by westerly downslope (warming) winds. Grand Island and Hastings could threaten daily record high temperatures: See climate section for more details. Afternoon relative humidity values sink into the teens across the area. Winds look to be on the lighter side, generally below 20mph, limiting fire weather concerns though a window of near- critical conditions may still develop (mainly along/NW of Tri- Cities). A few high based showers may develop over western Nebraska and move into the area Wednesday night, but dry air near the surface should prevent anything from reaching the surface.

Thursday...

A shortwave trough and associated cold front push through the area on Thursday. The cold frontal passage expected during the daytime hours, which will likely result in a greater spread in high temperatures than currently forecast (Upper 60s north to low 80s south). Gusty northerly winds are also expected with this cold frontal passage. The ECMWF/NAMNest/RRFS support wind gusts of 40- 45mph at times behind the cold front. This brings at least some elevated-near critical fire weather concerns to the area Thursday afternoon despite the cooler temperatures/higher RH behind the front. A few light showers are possible Thursday-Thursday night, though this looks to be fairly scattered and any precipitation that does make the ground will be very light (a couple of hundredths).

Friday Onwards...

Zonal to weak northwesterly flow aloft on Friday keeps temperatures seasonable, with highs in the 50s. Decreasing winds during the day on Friday should limit fire weather concerns despite the drier airmass dropping afternoon RH values below 20%. Ridging builds back over the Rockies/Plains this weekend, as above normal temperatures return to the area. Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s, climbing to the 70s/80s on Sunday. Above normal temperatures continue into early next week as the upper level pattern shifts to a more southwesterly flow.

Breezy winds and warmer weather results in near-critical fire weather conditions across portions of the area each day. Saturday overall looks to be the greatest overlap of breezy/gusty winds and low RH at this time. PoP chances return to the area next week with the aforementioned pattern shift, though model spread brings uncertainty to the timing/amount of any PoPs.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence in VFR conditions through the period. West- northwest winds become light/variable this evening before returning to the south early Thursday morning. A period of LLWS is also expected overnight. A cold front then sweeps through the area late Thursday morning (around 16Z at EAR/GRI).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions remain a concern across the area...with the main days of concern being today and Saturday.

For today...expecting hot temperatures climbing into the 80s-low 90s, with record high temps at risk at both Grand Island and Hastings. Current forecast dewpoints are expected to fall into the 30s...resulting in afternoon relative humidity values falling into the 10-20 percent range, with the lowest values mainly west of HWY 281. A surface frontal boundary will be pushing across the area through the morning hours today, ushering in a switch to more west- northwesterly winds area-wide by late morning/midday. This more westerly/downsloping component to the winds will aid in mixing potential and help tap into that warmer airmass aloft. It's not a strong boundary, but gusts anywhere from 20-30 MPH will be possible, especially right in the wake of the boundary passage...so especially through the early afternoon hours. There is some uncertainty with just how far into the mid-late afternoon hours those gusts will linger...as models suggest diminishing speeds later in the afternoon. Went with a Red Flag Warning for western portions of the area from noon-8PM today...but will be keeping a close eye on trends to see if an expansion is needed.

Tonight-Thursday...any fires that do develop today, folks will need to be aware of the strong cold front that will be pushing south late tonight and moreso during the first half of the day on Thursday. This front will bring an abrupt switch to northerly winds...with gusts exceeding 40 MPH possible. Though winds remain gusty through the daytime hours on Thursday, cooler air is also building in with the front...and current forecast relative humidity values are expected to bottom out in the 25-35 percent range.

Friday...cooler temps in the 50s and lighter winds is expected to keep fire weather concerns low.

This weekend...warmer air starts working its way back onto the region, bringing highs back in the 60s for Saturday and 70s-80s for Sunday. Though temperatures are warmer on Sunday, dewpoints are also increasing...the stronger winds and drier airmass, and thus greater fire weather concerns, are actually on Saturday. Current forecast relative humidity values on Saturday are expected to drop to near/below 20 percent, with southerly winds potentially gusting over 30 MPH. Winds remain southerly on Sunday, with lighter speeds due to a weaker pressure gradient.

CLIMATE

Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Well above normal temperatures work their way back into the area for the middle of the week, peaking today, March 25th. Record high temperatures will be threatened at both Grand Island and Hastings.

For Grand Island: Forecast high temp for March 25th: 88 Record high temp for March 25th: 88, set in 1910

For Hastings: Forecast high temp for March 25th: 88 Record high temp for March 25th: 85, set in 1956

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007.