textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A few thunderstorms are expected to move west to east across the area between 5pm and 11pm. Severe weather is not expected, but small hail and wind gusts near 50 MPH may be possible with the strongest storms.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. A few storms could become strong to severe with gusts near 60 MPH and hail up to the size of golf balls.

- There is a low chance for a few thunderstorms again Monday evening. Chances for thunderstorms then increase Wednesday through Friday. Some severe storms cannot be ruled out, but widespread or significant severe weather appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Diurnally-driven cumulus is bubbling over the western 2/3rds of Nebraska and down into NW Kansas. This is expected to continue to develop this afternoon and move across the area this evening as high-based showers and thunderstorms. Currently, shear is pretty lackluster, but is expected to increase into the evening hours, which will potentially allow storms to coalesce into one or more line segments. Instability falls off quickly into central Nebraska/Kansas, therefore severe weather remains unlikely. Nevertheless, these high-based showers/storms could produce some gusty winds this evening (evidenced on HRRR gust output) and perhaps some small hail in the strongest updrafts.

Sunday will trend noticably warmer than today as the upper trough moves out of the northern Plains and we see stronger southerly winds at the surface. Widespread highs in the 80s are expected, with some locations in southwest parts of the area making a run at 90 degrees. Thunderstorms are again expected to develop and move west-east across the area in the late afternoon and evening. But, unlike today, convective parameters are more favorable for a few storms to become severe. MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg combined with deep-layer shear of 30-35kt would support a severe hail threat, and possibly a few severe wind gusts as well. Nearly the entire area is now in a "Marginal" (level 1 of 5) severe risk area.

Overall, Monday is expected to be similar to Sunday, but the thunderstorm potential is more uncertain and likely to be more isolated. Therefore, SPC has not introduced a severe outlook.

A deep upper low is forecast to move into the western CONUS, which will eventually bring more widespread rain/thunderstorm chances to the area Wednesday-Saturday. Unfortunately, the evolution of this system is rather uncertain and therefore details on timing are hard to pin down at the moment. At this time, the overall severe risk doesn't look particularly concerning, especially for late May The GEFS CSU-MLP severe probs remain less than 5% each day through Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 706 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence in VFR ceiling throughout the period and high confidence in VFR visibility through at least the vast majority of it. Except for perhaps during brief periods of passing thunderstorms, any ceiling should remain well above 5K ft. AGL.

Above all else, the primary concerns are two completely separate windows of opportunity for brief rounds of passing showers/thunderstorms: 1) Right away this evening (covered by PROB30 groups 00-02Z KEAR/01-03Z KGRI)...2) Very late in the period Sunday afternoon (also PROB30 groups aimed 22-24Z KEAR/23-24Z KGRI). If thunderstorms do manage to directly impact either site, the primary concern will be brief wind gusts (most likely out of the north and/or west) up to around 40KT, along with perhaps a brief shot of heavy rain hail (this would be more favored Sunday than this evening). Will be closely monitoring the storms this evening for potential amendments to TEMPO or prevailing groups.

Turning to winds (and aside from any brief, thundertorm-related outflow enhancement), winds through much of this evening into the first part of Sunday daytime should prevail sustained near- to-below 10KT...and most commonly from a southerly direction. By late Sunday morning and into the afternoon, speeds will pick up out of the south-southwest, with several hours of sustained speeds 15-20KT/gusts around 25KT.

On one final wind-related note, mainly between 7-12Z, there will likely be "slightly strong" low level wind shear (LLWS), as southwesterly winds increase to around 35KT within the lowest 1-2 K ft. AGL. However, overall magnitude of LLWS should peak closer to 25KT than 30+KT...so it has not been included in TAFs.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.