textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Pesky light freezing drizzle and/or patchy fog COULD become an issue late tonight into Monday morning (any freezing drizzle most favored counties along/east of Hwy 281). - Although there could be some legitimate steadier showers here or there, Monday night-Tuesday night/Wed AM mainly just look very drizzly/at times foggy (greatest fog coverage probably Mon night-Tues AM). Fortunately, the vast majority of this drizzle should be of the plain/non-frozen variety.

- Wednesday afternoon-Thursday daytime should mainly be a dry break as we reside "in between" low pressure systems. After a few very "gloomy" days, sunshine and warmer temps will also return.

- Our next systems arrives Thursday night-Friday, and is currently expected to bring mainly rain potential (most wintry precip looks to focus mainly to our north/west). There are also increasing signs of thunderstorm potential (especially Thurs night-Fri AM)...MAYBE even enough instability for at least a small hail threat?

- Next weekend currently looks mainly dry in the wake of the departing Friday system

- Temperature-wise: highs mainly 40s Mon-Tues under extensive clouds, then warming to mostly 50s Wednesday and around 70 Thursday before a mix of 50s-60s Friday-Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 444 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED EARLY: As mentioned as pretty likely in the main discussion below, we did in fact cancel the Winter Weather Advisory a bit early for the 9 included counties in our far south-southeastern CWA. While some roads likely remain slick from the earlier wintry mix, that showery precipitation has already moved out for the day.

Evening-overnight shifts will have to closely monitor mainly the eastern 1/3 to 1-2 of our CWA for the possibility (not a sure thing) of light freezing drizzle development, which if it materializes could necessitate another Winter Weather Advisory. However, any impacts from this are...1) less certain...2) at least several hours away...so did not even really consider extending the now-cancelled Advisory to extend farther out in time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- In terms of forecast changes worth mentioning: 1) High temps have trended down a bit Mon-Wed due to extensive cloud cover/periodic drizzle.

2) Limited areas of "patchy fog" have been introduced to tonight-Monday AM, and higher confidence "areas of fog" have been introduced to Mon night-Tues AM. Cannot rule out at least localized dense fog.

- As for "big picture comments", our weather over the next week appears to be coming into a little better focus versus 24 hours ago, with our main/potential issues already covered in the Key Messages above. In addition to the aforementioned light freezing drizzle potential tonight-Monday AM and fog potential the next few nights, our next possible concern looks to be thunderstorm potential mainly Thurs night-Fri AM. Although too early to have much confidence in details, current model data suggests there could be enough elevated instability to support a few stronger storms with mainly a hail threat. Honestly, if this system slows down much at all from current projections, Friday afternoon could perhaps even feature a very early-season severe storm threat (as of right now this appears to mainly focus slightly to our east-southeast (as supported by latest NSSL ML Total Severe Probability guidance).

- One thing NOT currently in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID), but at least bears watching is fire weather potential for Thursday. While the damp/drizzle conditions earlier in the week could ease the fire threat a little, finer fuels (grasses) will dry out quickly. Southerly gusts of 20+ MPH currently appear probably for Thursday afternoon, but as of now relative humidity (RH) looks to remain well above our critical 20% threshold (albeit somewhat close in our far western zones).

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sun. March 8): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM: It's been a fairly busy day around here, as the most aggressive model solutions from the last couple of days ended up being "most right" about the concentrated batch of mixed wintry precip (primarily a sleet/snow mix with perhaps a touch of freezing rain) that started off in very light/non-impactful fashion across much of our western/northern CWA this morning, but then really "took off" within especially our southeastern quadrant this afternoon. Based on 511 road reports, there is fairly widespread coverage of partially-to-completely covered roads with either ice/slush/snow within much of the Advisory area. Speaking of which, earlier this morning we ended up issuing a formal Winter Weather Advisory initially for 7 of our southeastern-most counties, but then earlier this afternoon tacked on Clay/Fillmore counties as the northern fringes of steady precip also got into those counties as well. Thanks to a tongue of weak elevated instability nosing northward into our southeast CWA, especially some of our KS counties also experienced several lightning strikes from non-severe storms. SIDE NOTE: on top of all the actual WEATHER going on...a 4.1 magnitude earthquake (fairly strong for our area) occurred in Webster County around 1 PM! (see USGS website for more details).

Back to weather: In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm the low amplitude/quick moving shortwave trough traversing the Central Plains that sparked our round of wintry precip. At the surface (and as so often occurs in these setups), persistent easterly breezes (mainly sustained 10-15 MPH with slightly higher gusts), along with extensive cloud cover over most of our CWA, has helped hold temps a bit below forecast values (most of our CWA on track to top out no warmer than 30-35. However, more sun has broken out especially over the western 1/4th of our CWA to boost things into the upper 30s-low 40s.

- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: Although the Winter Weather Advisory in our southeast officially runs until 6 PM, latest radar data/short term model trends strongly suggest that things are moving out pretty steadily (most lingering precip now confined to Jewell/Thayer counties), and will probably cancel most counties once this discussion is completed. Any lingering/steadier precip should vacate even our extreme east-southeast edges no later than 5-6 PM.

- LATER THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: As the night wears on, light east-southeasterly breezes and moist/upslope low level flow will allow low stratus to persist and or/move into essentially our entire forecast area (probably arriving to far western zones last). While not expected to be a "major deal", an analysis of low-level cloud thickness/relative humidity via RAP model suggests that very light freezing drizzle could develop mainly post-midnight and mainly within counties along/east of Highway 281 (farther west, moisture depth is less supportive of freezing drizzle). Right now, freezing drizzle is only considered a POSSIBILITY (not a "sure thing") and thus no formal Advisories are in effect, but this will need monitored closely. Otherwise, at least patchy areas of fog are looking possible overnight, with latest HRRR painting the greatest fog potential within counties along/south of I-80. Sometimes models "over-do" fog under low stratus, but with today's precipitation and light breezes, it cannot be ruled out (including the possibility of localized dense fog). Low temps tonight are aimed upper 20s most areas (clouds holding up reading from falling far), except colder low 20s far west/north where the night will start off clearest.

- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: For the morning hours, we will see a continuation of at least patchy fog potential (mainly counties along/south of I-80, along with the aforementioned potential for light freezing drizzle mainly along/east of Hwy 281. Fortunately, by 10 AM temperatures should warm above freezing, turning any freezing drizzle to plain/non-freezing drizzle. For the afternoon, while some very patchy/lingering drizzle cannot be ruled out, opted to actually carry a dry forecast as it should mainly just be a very cloudy/cool and somewhat breezy day with sustained southeast winds 10-15 MPH/gusts up to 15-25 MPH). Given the expectation of extensive low clouds, high temps were nudged down a few degrees..most areas now aimed 41-45...except upper 40s possible extreme west (Dawson/Gosper/Furnas).

Monday night, the potential for more widespread (mainly NON- freezing) drizzle and areas of fog (possibly some dense) really ramps up as the low-level further saturate in the presence of light east-southeasterly breezes. Although actual rain amounts will not be significant (drizzle rarely is), our official precip chances (PoPs) are also likely not nearly high enough to convey the very high probability of drizzle. Low temps mainly 33-39 degrees (slightly above freezing), but far north/northwest counties COULD drop just below freezing so light freezing drizzle potential will need monitored.

- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: Although we could end up getting some steadier showers as a mid level shortwave trough passes overhead (especially Tues evening- overnight), precip type for especially most of the daytime hours should continue as steady/widespread drizzle...with areas of fog likely lasting until at least Noon as well. As was the case for Monday, high temps were nudged down slightly, now mainly mid- upper 40s at most.

- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: The vast majority of our CWA will likely be dry for the vast majority of these 36 hours, as we end up "in between" systems. Our official forecast still carries some small rain chances Wednesday daytime-evening, but latest NAM/GFS really lean toward the dry side. Sunshine should also make a triumphant return Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with high temps responding accordingly (highs mainly upper 50s-low 60s Wednesday and upper 60s-low 70s Thursday...possibly mid 70s southwest. As touched on above, will have to watch for possible fire weather concerns as southerly breezes pick up Thursday.

- THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT: Although far too early to "count on" any details, confidence is at least growing in the overall timing/arrival of our next upper system. Rain showers/some thunderstorms (MAYBE a few strong?) appear likely mainly Thurs night-Fri AM, with a cold front then charging through during the day Friday and in theory shunting any Friday afternoon thunderstorm threat at least slightly to our east-southeast. Our far northern/western zones could flirt with catching some snow on the backside of this system, but right now this MAINLY looks to focus at least slightly north- through-west of our CWA. High temps Friday could vary more than currently advertised depending on frontal position, but are currently aimed from low-mid 50s north/west to low-mid 60s south/southeast.

- SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Although our official forecast technically clips some of our KS counties with some very "iffy" slight rain chances, the latest ECMWF/GFS strongly support our going dry forecast for at least the vast majority of our CWA. High temps currently aimed near-60 Saturday and then warmer mid 60s-low 70s for Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR to IFR conditions expected during TAF period. Ceilings will bounce between MVFR and VFR over the next couple of hours, becoming MVFR by the late evening hours. Ceilings will steadily lower throughout the night, reaching IFR before sunrise. It is possible LIFR conditions develop but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. IFR ceilings will persist throughout the rest of the morning hours. Monday afternoon low stratus rises slightly, becoming MVFR, though the timing and exact ceiling heights remain uncertain. The highest ceilings Monday afternoon will be at KEAR.

Additionally there is a low (20%) chance for light freezing drizzle/drizzle Monday morning (around time of IFR Ceilings) but confidence in it occurring is too low to include in the TAF. If drizzle were to develop, MVFR visibility is possible.

CLIMATE

Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

If you thought it has been unusually warm so far this winter, you are right! With February now in the books, the traditional winter months of December-January-February (DJF) ended as the 5th warmest DJF in Hastings (33.6 degrees) and 6th warmest DJF in Grand Island (33.2 degrees) since record keeping began (based on average temperature).

In both cases, this was the warmest winter locally since the winter of 1991-1992, when the average temperature was 34.6 degrees and 35.1 degrees, respectively. The winter of 1991-1992 remains the warmest winter on record at both sites.

In comparison to normal, the average temperatures at both sites was just over 5 degrees above average for the 3 month period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.