textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Much drier conditions and warm today on gusty westerly winds. Near- critical fire weather this afternoon over far W/NW zones where fuels are still marginally susceptible.

- Scattered elevated supercells with primarily a large hail threat expected after sunset tonight. Greatest threat is for areas along and N of I-80, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is in place via latest SPC outlook.

- Cool and comfortable on Thursday before temperatures warm back up for Friday and Saturday. Another cool down arrives on Sunday and persists into early next week.

- Overall pattern doesn't appear to be quite as active over the next week, but there are still occasional thunderstorm chances, most notably on Saturday. This looks to be our next opportunity for strong to severe storms.

UPDATE

Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Ongoing scattered showers/few weak storms driven by 45-55kt low level jet will gradually dissipate/weaken as the LLJ does. The rest of the day will be dry as a cold front (currently analyzed from the Sandhills to near Denver) moves through this morning and ushers in drier westerly flow for the afternoon. Still appears any surface based development along this front later today will remain SE of the forecast area. Despite the frontal passage, not going to be much in the way of cooler air thanks to deep westerly, downsloping low level flow, which will warm quite easily under the high June sun angle. Relative humidity values will fall below 20 percent along and W of Hwy 183, and with the gusty winds 25-30 MPH, would still not advise burning in places like Gosper and Dawson Counties and any nearby areas that haven't seen much rain lately given the ongoing drought.

Still expect another round of thunderstorms tonight, mainly after sunset, and mainly for areas of south central Nebraska. This activity will develop in response to mid level height falls atop strong convergence on the nose of intense 50kt+ LLJ. Area averaged forecast soundings from the 06Z HRRR along I-80 at 06Z show little to no CINH to parcels lifted from around 800-750mb, MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg, and 700-500mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, combined with roughly 50kt of bulk shear to effective inflow parcels strongly suggests scattered elevated supercells with large to very large hail (1.5-2.0") being the primary threat with the initial (first 30-90 min) development. The very large hail threat may decrease after that as the intense forcing along with effective shear vectors that are largely parallel to the zone of max convergence should lead to upscale growth into one or more clusters. Activity will maintain a large hail threat until activity exits the area to the E/NE towards dawn...but more like 1.25-1.5". Areas that see this activity can expect a quick 0.5-1" of rainfall, perhaps locally higher.

Showers may linger into Thursday morning, but most of the midday through afternoon hours will be dry, cooler, and with less humidity. Temperatures look to warm back into the mid 80s to lower 90s Friday and Saturday, and Saturday looks to be our next decent chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. E/SE portions of our area are highlighted in a 15% severe risk area on the latest SPC day 4 outlook.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Currently through tonight...

Outside of a few showers/weak storms that work east across portions of south central Nebraska during the mid-late morning hours...been a pretty quiet day. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show southwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains...set up between broader troughing over the western CONUS and high pressure over the Gulf Coast/SErn coasts. The day started out with quite a bit of low level stratus and some drizzle...and while it has taken its sweet time shifting north/diminishing, more of the area is seeing sun, helping temps climb. Took a while for those more breezy southerly winds to spread north across the forecast area, started the day with many locations having more light/variable winds...which were also at least briefly turned to the northwest this morning from outflow from the activity that pushed east across NE. Finally have those gusty southerly winds across the area, generally around 20-25 MPH. The stratus really did a number on temperatures, mainly across south central NE...and while there will be some late day recovery with more sun, much of that area will fall at least a bit short of expectations. The high dewpoints is still making for sticky conditions...with widespread readings in the low 70s.

For the rest of this afternoon on into tonight...the main concern will be with thunderstorms working their way east across the area. Activity is already ongoing over the Central/Srn High Plains, sparked off by the arrival of an upper level shortwave disturbance embedded in that larger scale SWrly flow. With that area of 70s dewpoints nosing into much of the area, no shortage of instability...with the SPC Meso page showing MLCAPE values around 3000-4000j/kg in place CWA-wide here at mid-afternoon. Still some capping to overcome, but that should wane with time as that disturbance approaches from the SW. Models have remained consistent showing activity working its way into SWrn portions of the forecast area in the next few hours...pushing east through the early-mid evening hours. Basically the entire CWA is included in the Day 1 Enhanced Risk area...driven primarily by the threat for wind gusts near 70 MPH. Large hail up around golf ball size is also a possibility...and as this activity moves into better low level moisture further east, there is a threat for isolated tornadoes as well. Some of the hi-res models show activity from N-S through the CWA potentially being broken up a bit, with a more southern section closer to/south of HWY 6 into KS, then another more north of I- 80...we'll see if it actually pans out that way.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Models currently showing most of/if not all activity being off to the east of the forecast area by sunrise Wednesday...with the daytime hours currently forecast to be dry. In the upper levels, models are showing that larger scale troughing working its with further east with time further into the Rockies...with another embedded shortwave disturbance swinging into the Dakotas. This will help push a surface frontal boundary east through the forecast area...ushering in more northwesterly winds. This helps give that better low-level moisture a push east, with lower dewpoints in the 40s-50s currently forecast. Highs are forecast to reach into the mid 80s to low 90s...which results in some low relative humidities through the afternoon, with teens-20s forecast. With the recent rains across the area, have had a chance to further green up...so while some western areas flirt with near critical to critical RH/winds, not anticipating a fire headline at this time. During the late afternoon and early-mid evening hours...that frontal boundary provides focus for another round of thunderstorm development...but at this time that activity is expected to off to our ESE. Our main concern comes later in the evening and overnight...where models have been fairly consistent showing the potential for an arc of likely elevated hailers developing along the nose of a southerly low-level jet. Some models showing the jet potentially around 50kts, others are not quite as strong. Agreement isn't too bad as far as location goes...mainly a south central NE issue west of HWY 183, and generally around or just north of I-80. The SPC Day 2 Slight Risk area has a small westward back into the area to account for this potential.

Thursday on into early next week...

As we get into the latter portion of the week and start of the new week...forecast does have a longer dry period for Thursday and Friday. Models showing generally zonal flow returning to the upper levels...but also show a lack of notable disturbances moving through. That changes as we get into the weekend-early next week, with periodic disturbances returning to the region. As far as temperatures go, have a little bit of a roller coaster forecast...with highs back in the mid 80s-90s by Saturday, dropping back into the low-mid 70s for Sun-Mon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The majority of this TAF period is forecast to be dry, with VFR conditions. Late tonight, near/after 06Z, there will be the potential for a line of thunderstorms to develop across portions of the area, then shifting off to the ENE with time. There is some uncertainty with just exactly where this activity initializes...but there is the potential for impact on both terminal sites, thus the PROB30 mention from 06-10Z. This afternoon, breezy/gusty NW winds continue, with gusts near 20-25 MPH possible. Winds turn more light/variable this evening/overnight...becoming NWrly closer to sunrise and on through the end of this period. Mid-late morning looks to usher in gusty NW winds, with gusts near 30 MPH.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.