textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A bigger warm-up starts Tuesday, with above normal/average highs 50s/60s prevailing Tues-Fri (overall-warmest Friday most of our forecast area), before our next larger-scale cold front arrives this weekend and knocks us back into the 30s/40s for a few days (overall-coldest Sunday).

- Elevated-to-near-criticial fire weather conditions Tuesday- Friday: Although (at least for now) no outright-critical conditions are anticipated, various portions of our CWA will likely see elevated/near-critical fire weather conditions Tuesday-Friday afternoons (wherever 20+ MPH gusts coincide with relative humidity 25% or lower). - At least isolated to scattered rain showers (perhaps fairly widespread in coverage?) will race east- southeastward through our forecast area (CWA) Wednesday afternoon-evening (mainly after 3 PM), bringing at least spotty rainfall mainly under 0.10" to various spots. Although not currently in forecast, cannot completely rule out a few embedded/weak thunderstorms given the presence of very weak (but non-zero) instability.

- Saturday evening-Monday, our forecast is currently "littered" with various low-end/low- confidence (20-30%) chances for primarily snow. That being said, latest ensemble and deterministic model runs really DOWNPLAY this snow potential, keeping us mostly precip-free and/or with little- if-any accumulation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- When comparing with our previous 7-day forecast "package" (issued early this morning), overall things stayed pretty consistent, including: 1) very high confidence in the appreciable warm-up Tues-Fri...2) high confidence in at least SOME coverage of rain showers Wed afternoon-evening..3) the snow chances Sat evening-Monday remain very low-confidence- in-occurrence.

- Probably the single-biggest forecast change was high temps for Sunday coming down a good 3-5 degrees (more of our CWA only topping out in the 30s).

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather for Tues-Fri afternoons are currently the only content in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID)...just introduced this afternoon. While forecast fire weather conditions are notorious for getting "worse" as they get closer in time (due to a combo of expected wind speeds increasing and/or RH dropping lower), at least for now outright-critical conditions (overlap of gusts 25+ MPH/RH at- or-below 20%) appears relatively unlikely. That being said, especially Wednesday (currently projected to have strongest winds of the week) and Friday (currently projected to be the warmest day of the week with lowest RH) appear to be most worth watching.

- Quick peek beyond our 7-day (beyond March 2): Latest ECMWF ensemble data supports latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 day outlook, leaning fairly strongly toward above normal temps and with a less-confident/slighter lean toward above normal precip. Latest ECMWF ensemble suggests widespread high temps back into the 50s/60s beyond our brief colder spell Saturday-Monday.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Mon. March 2): - CURRENT/TODAY'S WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 2 PM: As expected, today is playing out as the "transition day" temperature-wise...several degrees warmer than yesterday, but not nearly as mild as tomorrow. Afternoon highs are currently aimed mainly mainly mid-upper 30s northeast half of our CWA...to 40s for most of the southwest half (possibly even touching 50) mainly in our extreme southwest (Rooks/Furnas counties). A fairly widespread batch of passing high cirrus has likely hindered warming somewhat, but this appears to be departing off to the east/thinning out, paving the way for a late-afternoon official high temp. Otherwise, at the surface, the main feature this afternoon is increasingly-breezy southerly winds, ramping up in the tightening pressure gradient between a departing high pressure/ridge axis (currently centered over south IA/north MO) and a High Plains lee trough to our west. The result is sustained speeds/gusts commonly 10-20 MPH/15-20 MPH (respectively)...overall strongest in our western CWA and weakest in our east).

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirm broad north-northesterly flow overhead our Central Plains region...directed between a prominent eastern U.S. trough (highlighted by the big Nor'eastern slamming the Northeast coastal cities), and a broad ridge extending from the Pacific west of Mexico up toward the Desert Southwest.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (much milder than last night): It will remain dry, but another batch(es) of mainly high level clouds will spill in from the northwest, promoting generally partly cloudy skies. Really the biggest story tonight is that low temps will hold up a good 15-25 degrees WARMER than last night/this morning, with much of the night featuring steady to even slightly-rising temps following the initial early-evening fall. More specifically, lows are aimed somewhere in the 20s most areas, with a few spots mainly south not dropping under 30. This is due to the passage of a warm-front, marked by breezes starting to turn southwesterly late in the evening, and eventually more "true" westerly between midnight-sunrise (speeds mainly 10-15 MPH with occasional higher gusts).

- TUESDAY DAYTIME (much warmer than today): By far the main story is the bigger warm-up (highs 20+ degrees warmer than today). The one main caveat to getting AS warm as we're aiming for will be what looks to be a considerable amount of mid-high clouds (skies mostly cloudy overall). However, the presence of a much warmer low-level airmass and also west- northwesterly breezes will be the main "drivers" of the warm-up. Kept highs similar to previous forecast...most of our northern half mainly mid-upper 50s/most of our southern half low-mid 60s (and even reaching 70 mainly far SW in Rooks County). As for winds, they look to be a bit breezy, but NOT overly-strong (mainly sustained around 15 MPH/gusts 20-25 MPH), initially out of the northwest but turning more northerly as the afternoon progresses, along with a gradual decrease in speeds mid-late afternoon as surface high pressure noses in from the northwest. However, a few hours of near-critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop mainly 11AM-3PM...primarily affecting counties south of I-80 and on either side of the KS border.

- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Our forecast remain dry at this time, but there are at least "hints" (especially in HRRR model) that some spotty sprinkles/very light rain could develop here or there...mainly within 40 miles either side of the KS border. Otherwise, despite a surface high pressure axis providing light winds (mainly at/under 5 MPH), temps should not tumble too far given continued plentiful mid-high clouds (lows aimed mid-upper 20s most of our CWA).

- WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT (quick hit of rain showers): While much of the daylight hours will remain dry, a fairly strong-but-fast-moving upper level disturbance will dive south- southeastward through our CWA mainly late afternoon-overnight. With this time frame now getting within range of higher-res models (such as NAMNest), it's looking increasingly likely that at least isolated/scattered (and possibly numerous) rain showers will race across our much of our CWA from west-northwest to east-southeast...especially between 4/5 PM and midnight. Not everybody will see these showers, but those that do could pick up a quick 0.05-0.10" of rain (localized slightly higher). A spotty weak thunderstorm probably cannot even be ruled out given perhaps 100+ J/kg of CAPE/instability, but have held off on any formal forecast inclusion for now. Even without thunder, these showers bear watching for the potential of dragging down some "sneaky" gusty winds of 40+MPH. However, even before any weak convection develops, it will already be a somewhat breezy day with south-southwesterly winds sustained 15-20 MPH/gusts 25+ MPH at least some areas. High temps are aimed overall-similar to Tuesday...upper 50s-mid 60s most places...but ranging from low- mid 50s far northeast...to upper 60s far southwest.

Any evening rain showers should vacate our extreme southwest CWA by around midnight, leaving the late-night hours dry with northwesterly breezes and low temps mainly a few degreed either side of 30 degrees.

- THURSDAY-FRIDAY (quiet and mild): Under broad west-northwesterly flow aloft, this appears to be a high-confidence dry stretch. These should be somewhat breezy (but not OVERLY-windy) and seasonably-mild days, with highs aimed near-60 on Thursday and mid-uppper 60s on Friday.

- SATURDAY-MONDAY (chillier with very "iffy" snow chances): For being 5+ days out, latest ECMWF/GFS are in good agreement bringing a cold front (marked by breezy north-northeasterly winds) across our CWA on Saturday, with winds turning more easterly Sunday and southerly again Monday (at least per ECMWF). High temps are currently forecast to check in 20-25 degrees colder on Saturday versus Friday (mainly 40s Nebraska/low 50s Kansas), and then Sunday overall-coldest with highs mainly 30s except low 40s southwest. Very preliminarily, Monday highs are expected to bounce back up into the 40s CWA-wide. Certainly of much lower confidence are the snow chances starting Saturday night, which fortunately (and for good reason) are running no higher than 20-30% at this time. There is certainly plenty of time for things to change...but for now latest models give us little-to-nothing through Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with winds being the primary focus.

A warm front is expected to slide east across the local area overnight with steady southerly winds near 10 KTS ahead of it. Aloft, expect modest LLWS to increase across the area this evening as the front approaches, with additional LLWS from the west expected to develop during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday behind the anticipated warm front. Any LLWS should diminish by mid-morning Tuesday as surface winds increase across the local area...with westerly wind gusts to 20KT+ anticipated after 24/15Z. Cloud cover wise...expect lots of cirrus on satellite upstream of the area to filter in across the region through the period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.