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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning today for areas generally along and north of Highway 6. Northwesterly winds gust 50-60 MPH at times through the afternoon.

- Light snow is possible for parts of the area Friday through Sunday. Significant snow accumulation appears unlikely, but some areas could see the first accumulating snow of the season (40-50% chance).

- Trending cooler the rest of the week and through the weekend. Subfreezing high temperatures and single-digit low temperatures are likely by Sunday/Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Light winds and mostly clear skies ahead of the approaching cold front has resulted in localized dense fog early this morning. This fog is very shallow, and will clear from west to east before sunrise as the front pushes into the area.

Gusts over 45 MPH have already been observed in portions of the Sandhills, and will overspread the local area by mid-morning. The start-time for the High Wind Warning was bumped back to 8am (rather than 6am from the High Wind Watch). The strongest gusts are not expected until the afternoon hours, as deeper mixing taps into the stronger winds aloft. The core of strongest winds is still expected to be over north-central Nebraska, but occasional gusts in the 50-60 MPH range are possible as far south as Highway 6.

Any snow associated with this system should remain to our north...but could creep into northern parts of Nebraska this afternoon and early evening. Winds gradually taper off through the evening, and overnight lows are expected to dip into the teens and low 20s.

Wednesday and Thanksgiving are still expected to be dry and about 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. There are no major changes for Friday through the weekend. Accumulating snow on Friday and Saturday is more favored to occur over eastern parts of the area, with more widespread chances arriving Sunday (possibly lingering into Monday). Significant accumulation still appears unlikely. In general, the 00Z global ensembles showed similar or slightly decreased probabilities for 1"+ of snowfall. That said, anyone with holiday travel plans should continue to monitor the forecast closely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Lots of clouds lingered across the area today, rotating around the area of low pressure crossing southern Kansas this afternoon. Expect a period of at least partial clearing across the area overnight as this system tracks further east and a cold front approaches from the northwest. This clearing, combined with light winds to start the night, could allow for the redevelopment of some patchy fog late this evening and into the overnight hours, but should be quickly scoured and pushed east as winds start to pick up pre-dawn. The latest few runs of the HRRR indicate some patchy dense fog mainly east of Highway 281 overnight, but did not buy into this completely (partly due to slight westerly component of winds) and only included some patchy fog mention in the official forecast that should be completely gone by daybreak.

As the aforementioned cold front works its way across the tri- cities area around daybreak, expect winds to start to crank up across the region, with sustained winds of 25 MPH to 40 MPH expected by midday. 18Z HRRR continues to indicate gusts of 40-50 KTS across areas generally along and north of Highway 6 during the late morning through afternoon hours, and as a result, would not be surprised to see several gusts over 55 MPH by the end of the day. As a result, went ahead and issued a high wind watch for this area from 6 AM to 6 PM. In addition to the strong winds, expect decent cold air advection through the day, and for temperatures tomorrow afternoon to struggle to climb into the 40s, or about 10 to possibly 15 degrees below this afternoons highs, which combined with the strong winds, will make it feel quite blustery across the area.

Behind this cold front, expect a general pattern shift for several days as progressive northwesterly flow will continue across the center of the country through the end of the week. This will result in a generally cool weather pattern, with temperatures remaining well below normal for an extended period of time. Could also see multiple, quick passing, upper level disturbances that bring small chances of snow to the region as early as Friday afternoon, with the better signals coming late in the weekend. The current forecast suggests the potential for some light accumulations through Sunday, with a better chance for a potentially more significant system over the middle of next week as an upper level low lifts out of the southwest and into the plains. Plenty of model divergence over this period, but in general, expect colder temps and small chances for light snow Friday afternoon through next Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions anticipated through the period with winds being the main concern over the next 12 hours. Expect very gusty northwest winds to continue across the local area through the afternoon hours...with gusts 45KTS+ continuing through around 26/00Z. Thereafter...winds will slowly begin to subside...but remain gusts for most of the night...before relaxing and becoming steady around 10 KTS by around 26/10Z. Sky cover through the period will be minimal, with just some passing mid/high level clouds through the afternoon hours, with clear skies anticipated for the remainder of the forecast period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077. KS...None.


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