textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Beyond a rogue weak thunderstorm or two this afternoon, the main potential for precipitation will come Wednesday (15-60% chances) and Thursday (40-90% chances).

- Two rounds of showers (Wednesday morning to afternoon & overnight Wednesday to Thursday) will be expected to deposit between 0.25-1" of precipitation across at least 75% of the area.

- The highest precipitation probabilities and amounts both days will be concentrated towards the northern portions of the area, especially for areas north of I-80.

- Temperatures taking a dip Wednesday and Thursday (mid 70s and 80s) should rebound over the weekend (90s to low 100s possible SAT-MON).

UPDATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Following the passage of yesterday's cold front, north to northeasterly winds will help knock temperatures down by around 10- 15 degrees today compared to Monday (highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s). Though these winds will be fairly light to steady at times (5- 15MPH), the "cooler" and drier airmass being mixed in should be enough to keep the upper 90 to 100 degree temperatures away through at least Friday. Aloft, height/pressure falls east of the area have pushed the upper-level ridge back westward some, setting up northwest flow overhead. This flow will become important to steering any showers and storms that develop inside or northwest of the area across the next few days (mainly for Wednesday and Thursday).

In terms of the precipitation potential across the next few days, a few rounds of mainly showers, though a weak storm or two could become embedded, will be expected to pass though several portions of the area. The shower/storm potential for today remains fairly limited outside of a rogue developing non-severe storm or two. The better and more meaningful rainfall potential will not come until Wednesday and Thursday.

A cluster of mainly showers will be expected to slide down from the eastern Wyoming and western/northern Nebraska region overnight tonight. A few bands of rain may reach far north to northwest portions of the area sometime Wednesday morning. This cluster of mainly showers will march its way across several central Nebraska locations throughout most of the afternoon. A brief lull in precipitation is expected to fall during the later afternoon to evening hours ahead a second and possibly more widespread cluster of showers arriving overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

As for the first round of Precipitation (Wednesday morning to afternoon), the best potential for rain will be concentrated towards the north with precipitation chances of 40-65% held across areas north of I-80. The latest precipitation accumulation estimation projects that up to 0.25-0.5" of precipitation may fall across these locations through the day Wednesday (mostly likely scenario). It is also important to note that HREF probabilistic guidance suggests that there is still a 30-40% chance for any individual location to see less than 0.25" with a 20-30% chance for locations to receive accumulations higher than 0.5". The rest of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas areas will have a lower potential of seeing rain (15-40% precipitation chances) due to the shower's more northern favored track. Accumulations should also naturally decrease south of the interstate as probabilities of exceeding 0.25" of precip decrease to to 10-30% chance with only a 10% chance of exceeding 0.5".

A second and possibly more widespread cluster of showers looks more likely to come overnight Wednesday into Thursday along with the passage of shortwave disturbance aloft. The probability of precipitation increases to 40-90% across the full area with higher- end amounts of precipitation increasing up to just over 0.75" across the period Wednesday night through Thursday. Locations north of the interstate have a 40-65% chance of seeing amounts exceed 0.75" with only a 15-40% chance of exceedance across the remainder of the area (far south central Nebraska and north central Kansas). More details regarding the exact timing will become more clear once this event comes in range of the short-term high-resoultion models.

Beyond the precipitation potential mainly Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures should continue to cool some with highs expected to range the mid 70s and 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds out of the east to southeast will likely blow between 10-15 MPH with gusts as high as 25-30 MPH possible across the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Currently...

Quiet, but toasty conditions reign across the forecast area this afternoon...with satellite imagery showing plenty of sunshine in place. Looking in the upper levels...a ridge of high pressure remains the main feature for much of the central/western CONUS, roughly centered over the central Rockies. The ridging extends up into SW portions of Canada...with satellite imagery showing a low pressure system working its way east into the western Great Lakes region this afternoon. This upper level systems is helping drive a surface cold front south through the Plains...which is currently sitting across northern NE up into SErn SD and MN. Ahead of this front...temps have had little issue climbing well into the 90s to right around 100. Making things miserable this afternoon are the dewpoints, which currently sit in the mid 60s-low 70s...resulting in widespread heat index values over 100 degrees. No changes made to the CWA- wide Heat Advisory...which remains in effect until 10PM this evening.

Late this afternoon through Tuesday...

This sfc cold front will continue to sink south through the region this evening and tonight...and while it's arriving too late to provide any help with today's temperatures, it may aid in sparking off some thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening. Satellite imagery showing a line of CU developing from west-east along that boundary, barely along our far northern edge. The better upper forcing is lacking across our area...but a few isolated storms are not out of the question. While MUCAPE values across the area are not lacking...any storms will have to work against weaker deeper layer shear and warm mid-level temps, so they may struggle to maintain strength. The area is currently not outlooked by SPC for severe weather...but any stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail and heavy rainfall rates.

Through the overnight hours and into the morning hours on Tuesday...there is some disagreement among models with whether or not we see a second batch of activity develop. Model timing in decent agreement showing the sfc front clearing the CWA to the south between 09-12Z...with this isolated-scattered activity developing along an elevated front lagging behind across northern portions of the area. Because there are differences with whether or not it occurs..kept PoPs on the lower side after 03Z around 20 percent. Have chances ending mid-morning Tuesday with the rest of the day dry...but again there are some uncertainties in models, some showing at least a few isolated showers could linger longer into the day. Even if activity does linger...not looking at appreciable rainfall amounts. Behind the cold front, the more notable changes will be to the winds, which look to be northeasterly through the day...and temperatures/dew points. After the widespread 90s-low 100s today, forecast highs for Tuesday remain in the upper 80s in the NNE to mid 90s....not a huge change, but add in forecast dewpoints in the 50s- near 60 vs the 60s-70s today...it makes a difference.

Mid-week on through the weekend...

Better chances for precipitation do finally return to the forecast...mainly during the Wednesday-Thursday night time frame. Not expecting a non-stop rain-out or the like during that entire period...these chances coming more in a couple of waves. Models show the first of these shortwave upper level disturbance working into WNW portions of the area perhaps already as early late Tuesday night...with the better chances through the day on Wednesday focused more across the NNWrn half of the forecast area, with the disturbance riding more along the edge of the ridging/NWrly flow. Disturbances moving through later Wednesday night through Thursday look to have the potential to dig further south into the ridging while crossing the Rockies, helping spread those better chances further south. Will have to see how things trend in the coming days, at this point the overall severe threat is on the lower side...the area not being included in any SPC outlooks through mid-week.

As we get into the end of the week-upcoming weekend...precipitation chances look to be more sparse...as models show that upper level ridging reamplifying across central/western portions of the CONUS.

As far as temperatures go...with the better precipitation chances around, forecast highs Wed-Thu are mainly in the 70s-80s...climbing back well into the 90s by the end of the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few showers and non-severe storms linger around KEAR/KGRI this morning. these storm/showers will not be expected to stick around for long. Though a few clouds linger as low as 4-8kft, VFR conditions are expected to retain across the period. Winds this morning out of the north will mainly blow between 10-15kts with occasional gusts as high as 20kts possible this afternoon. Directions overnight will become more easterly. Skies will scatter out across the rest of the day with more stratus expected to sweep in from the northwest overnight tonight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.