textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs will remain in the 80s for Today and Thursday before increasing to the upper 80s to mid 90s for Friday.

- The next chance for precipitation will come Friday night (30-70%; greatest potential concentrated east). A few strong to severe storms may be possible. A Marginal Severe Weather Outlook is in place for central Nebraska.

- A cold frontal passage overnight Friday will bring cooler temperatures in for the weekend and for the first part of next week (Highs: 70s and 80s).

- Daily thunderstorm chances return each day for at least a portion of the area over the weekend and through the first half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Following the passage of yesterday's cold front, a cooler (80s highs) and drier (upper 50s to low 70s dewpoints) airmass has settled into the region. Aloft, a Northern Plains centered trough has brought mid-to-upper level height falls, cooling temperatures and negative vorticity advection (stabilizing conditions not typically conducive for storm development). As result of the recent pattern transition, the forecast remains dry through Friday morning (outside of any lingering scattered storms this morning across a few portions of north central Kansas or a few Nebraska areas east of HWY- 281). The front, now positioned across central to northeast Kansas, could possibly kick up a few storms this afternoon that neighbor far southern portions of Rooks, Osborne or Mitchell counties (10-20% chance). These storms, however, will not be expected to venture too much further northward into any other portions of the area (westerly steering flow aloft).

The most notable change that will be felt today and Thursday will be from the cooler temperatures. Highs should keep in the 80s as the northerly surface winds today reinforce the cold air advection pattern. Lows overnight Wednesday could even reach the low 50s in a few locations northwest of the Tri-Cities (30-60% chance). An around 1020mb surface high pressure center will meander through the area Thursday, flipping the surface winds back to the south in its wake. These southerly winds should temporarily bring back upper 80s to mid 90 degree temperatures for Friday, though it is uncertain how long this seasonable warm temperatures may actually stick around (average early to mid september highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s). The reestablishment of the southerly winds for the back half of the day Thursday and Friday will additionally help to reload low-level moisture, helping to also increase the storm potential for Friday night (PWAT values up to 1.25-1.5 in).

Signs for yet another cold frontal passage overnight Friday appear to be in the workings as an upper-level shortwave disturbance is expected to make its rounds through the Central Plains. This disturbance will not only bring the areas its next precipitation chance this week, but also the next chance for severe weather. The deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM models hint at the possibility for a few strong to severe storms to pop up overnight Friday as the front moves its way through. There is, however, some run to run inconsistencies regarding the individual placement of the front (affecting confidence in timing) and the placement of developing storms (uncertainty in how far south storms may unravel). Early guidance projects a high instability environment (2,000-3,000J/kg MUCAPE) paired with 25-40kts of deep layer shear and 7-8C/km of low- to-mid level lapse rates; am environment that would be well supportive enough for severe convection. The Storm Prediction Center introduced all of central Nebraska to a Marginal Severe Weather Outlook (level 1 out of 5) for now.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have continued in northwestern portions of the area in response to an upper-level disturbance and approaching cold front. These storms are expected to continue through the afternoon and evening hours, gradually drifting south (more to come later). These conditions will allow for a gradient in high temperatures across the area today. The cold front and associated showers/thunderstorms will bring a break from the heat for northwestern portions of the area, keeping highs in the 80s. However, the hot and humid conditions will continue through today for southern portions of the area, namely along and south of the state line, as highs climb in the upper 90s-low 100s and heat index values approach 105-108. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect until 7PM tonight.

As the cold front passes through the area this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and drift southward. A few of these storms this evening could become strong to marginally severe, as ample heating and southerly flow south of the boundary allow for some instability rebuild (around 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE).

Near normal temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of this cold front, as a cooler drier air mass moves into the area and the upper level pattern flattens out. Highs are expected to be in the 80s, with little to no precipitation chances in the forecast. Breezy southerly flow may return Thursday, with gusts up to 20-30 MPH possible during the afternoon hours.

The EFI-SOT (which is a measure of how extreme model guidance is compared to climatology) indicates that above normal temperatures may return to the area Friday (with 60-70% of model guidance suggesting above normal temperatures), as strong southerly flow returns to the area under a slightly more amplified pattern. However, it will likely not be as hot as this past stretch, as highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, compared to climatologically residing in the mid 80s. However, this heat won't stick around long, as an upper- level disturbance approaches from the west. Along with the cool- down, this disturbance brings with it the chance of showers/thunderstorms Friday evening through Monday. A few of these storms Friday may be strong to severe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few areas of fog this morning and low ceilings (as low as 500ft) will be expected to clear by 15z. These sub-VFR conditions will not be expected to hang around long, especially for KEAR. The remainder of the period should be precipitation free with skies clearing between mainly 15z and 0z. Winds out of the northeast for a majority of the day, gusting up to near 15kts, should lighten overnight as higher surface pressure filter in. Speeds overnight will gradually become light and variable.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.