textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of the KS/NE state line. Large hail/damaging wind are the primary hazards.

- Cooler temperatures for Friday and trending drier.

- Active SW upper flow develops across the region this weekend into next week...with the potential for periodic shortwave disturbances and chances for precipitation. Still considerable uncertainty regarding timing and location of greatest rain chances...along with the potential for strong-severe storms.

- Temperatures warm up nicely into the 70s and 80s for the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Zonal upper flow and moderate low to mid level warm air advection could support some isolated to scattered elevated showers and weak storms this morning...though confidence on exact location and coverage is pretty low. Based on recent satellite data and short term model trends...think our N zones and KS zones have the "best" chances to see some development over the next few hours, but even still, these are only about 20-40% type chances. The passage of a weak disturbance and veering low level jet could also support an eastward translation or focus for new development (Hwy 81?) around/after sunrise...and this is somewhat depicted in recent HRRR runs. Again...anything that develops will be elevated in nature and lacking moisture, with any rain amounts through early afternoon ~0.10", or less.

Majority of afternoon hours look to be fairly quiet. A stationary front (currently along I-70 corridor) is forecast to slowly lift northward today and settle roughly along the KS/NE state line by late afternoon. This warm front, along with a reinforcing cold front gradually sinking southward through Neb. will lead to a wide range in temperatures from upper 70s/low 80s S, to upper 50s/lower 60s in our N/NE zones.

No major changes to what is discussed below regarding the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and (especially) this evening along the warm front. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk outlook area for today where there is the greatest model agreement in storm development. Lacking moisture (dew points higher than yesterday, but still only in the upper 40s to maybe lower 50s) will be a limiting factor to what otherwise could be a more significant severe threat given presence of strong warm front and limited capping. Nonetheless, large hail (generally quarter to half dollar size) and damaging wind gusts (~60 MPH) will be possible. Any sustained supercell structure could increase the peak hail potential up to around golf ball size.

One of the bigger changes with this package was to back off on magnitude and northern extent of PoPs tonight and Friday. The sfc front is forecast to sink well S of the area and allow for axis of sfc high pressure to nose in from the N/NE...and this will coincide with shortwave ridge aloft. Thus, think majority of the area will now be dry for most, if not all, of the daytime hours Friday. Have lowered PoPs significantly for Neb zones and somewhat so in KS, and definitely still some potential for further decreases in later forecast updates.

Plenty far out still to discuss the weekend rain chances in much detail...but the general trend from the past couple of days seems to be continuing. Unfortunately, that means lower rain chances for much needed moisture. In fact, latest EC is now almost completely dry from Saturday night all the way until Tuesday as the primary axis of unsettled weather runs from the southern Plains into the Lower MO Valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Thursday...

Have precipitation chances lingering into the morning hours on Thursday, gradually shifting to the east along the edge of the LLJ...again the coverage of PoPs may be too broad with coverage looking to be on the isolated-scattered side, but models vary with just when/where activity develops/shifts.

Focus through the rest of the day turns to the next upper level disturbance...models showing a broader shortwave trough sliding into the Nrn Rockies tonight, then further SE onto the Nrn/Central Plains during the day on Thursday. Ahead of this disturbance, deepening sfc low pressure over eastern CO will help to pull the frontal boundary which stalls out near I-70 tonight back north...it again being the focus for thunderstorm development later in the afternoon. Models are showing this warm front not making a ton of northward progress, as this approaching upper level trough is bringing along a reinforcing cold front. From roughly mid-afternoon on, and moreso after 00Z once the LLJ ramps up, thunderstorm chances ramp back up...with models in decent agreement showing the best potential again across SSE portions of the forecast area. Along/south of this frontal boundary, models are showing the potential for dewpoints to climb into the low 50s...aiding in better instability (MUCAPE values in the 1000-1500 j/kg are possible), with deeper layer shear again around 30-40kts. Concern remains for some storms to be strong-severe, mainly south of HWY 6-north central KS and along/east of HWY 281...and SPC upgraded this area to a Slight Risk (2 out of 5)...the Marginal Risk area (1 out of 5) is spread further north/west. Large hail/winds remain the primary threats. Through the overnight hours, models show the wave moving through and the LLJ veering more by around midnight...so while the potential remains for some activity to linger on through the overnight hours...confidence is not overly high there is going to be much of it (plenty of differences between models still).

Friday on into early next week...

Thursday's reinforcing cold front looks to bring cooler Friday, remaining the coolest overall day of this 7-day period. We'll see how models trend in the coming days...but recent runs suggest the current forecast precip chances may be too high/widespread, potentially set up between Thursday's departing system to the east and some shortwave upper level ridging to the west ahead of a larger scale system digging along the West Coast. Clouds/lingering precip will also play a role in highs on Friday...so their trends will matter, but current forecast calls for highs in the mid 50s-near 60, so near-normal for this time of year.

As we get into the weekend and the first half of the new work week...models continue to show the potential for a more active pattern/precipitation chances. In the upper levels, low pressure digging south along the West Coast and eventually further inland will be bringing more southwesterly flow to the central CONUS...with periodic shortwave disturbances ejected out ahead bringing precipitation chances to the forecast area. While each day Saturday through Tuesday has chances in the forecast...not expecting a multi-day washout...just hard to have a ton of confidence in the exact timing/location details, especially the further out in time you go. It's not out of the question that some of these chances may get greatly reduced depending on their track, putting the better potential outside the forecast area. These disturbances will bring along the potential for strong- severe storms...at this point models suggest that better chances will focus south and east of our area, but again we'll see how things trend the next few days.

As far as temperatures go, highs are forecast to climb back into the 70s-80s for the weekend and Monday...with the potential for a cooler push Tue-Wed with highs back in the 50s-60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: An isolated shower/weak storm may pop-up at just about any time through around midday, but not expecting much in the way of impact in terms of CIGs or VSBYs. Should see a mix of sun and mid to high clouds this afternoon. Winds will be from the NE to E today, becoming a bit breezy this morning. Confidence: Med.

Tonight: Main aviation concern will be potential for stratus to move in. Have introduced some MVFR CIGs beginning around 03-04Z for both sites. Some guidance doesn't totally rule out some lowering to IFR, mainly at GRI, but confidence not high enough to go that low that far out. Winds will be out of the NE at around 10-15kt. Confidence: Medium.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.