textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather is likely this afternoon and evening, mainly in areas along/east of Highway 281. All severe threats are possible (large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes), mainly in the 5pm-10pm window.

- Portions of northern Kansas and perhaps the Highway 81 corridor in Nebraska have one more chance for severe storms on Monday afternoon. The rest of the area will be noticably cooler with only a few showers expected.

- Cooler-than-normal conditions are expected through midweek. Then we gradually trend warmer (with more rain chances) late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The main concern in this forecast revolves around severe convection today and on Monday.

Currently, most of the area is in the warm sector, with a cold front pushing in from the west, and a dryline/triple-point expected to push in from the southwest this afternoon. The eastern half of the area should be quite unstable by late afternoon, the MLCAPE values likely in the 2000-4000 J/kg range. If anything, CAMs have trended a bit further west with storm initiation...possibly as early as 4pm...but becoming more likely by around 5pm in the Highway 281 corridor. Strong deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercells, potentially merging into multiple line segments later into the evening hours. Confidence in coverage is highest in northern parts of the area and southern portions of the area, areas to the south and east of Hastings may not

Generally the entire area near/east of Highway 281 has some threat for tornado today, although the highest risk is expected to be north and east of Grand Island where low-level shear is maximized. Sig-tor parameter (STP) values of 5-7+ are forecast by the RAP/mesoanalysis, which is a quite substantial indicator of tornado potential.

A storm or two may approach western areas later this evening, but are expected to weaken as the move into the area in the 8-10pm timeframe. Most of our Nebraska counties should be storm-free by 8-9pm, but southern portions of the area have potential for a longer-duration event, with storms continuing to build near and just north of I-70. If this occurs, localized flooding is possible (mainly Mitchell/Osborne counties), although this will depend exactly on where storms setup.

Monday will start off cloudy and relatively cool, with potentially some showers/drizzle in the morning and early afternoon. An additional round of convection is expected to develop along the stalled front. Less of the area is expected to be impacted than today and Saturday, but nevertheless, portions of northern KS, along with the Hwy 81 corridor could see severe storms in the 3-8pm timeframe.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9pm today for southwestern zones that are expected to see a quick burst of dry air behind the dryline this afternoon. After today, the overall fire weather threat is relatively low for the rest of this week.

Not much time was spent on the longer-range forecast. Temperatures remain below-normal through midweek, then gradually warm back up into the Memorial Day weekend. Rain/t-storm chances also return to the forecast by the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The threat for severe thunderstorms has shifted east of KEAR and KGRI, although lightning will remain in the vicinity of KGRI for another hour or so. VFR conditions are expected this evening, with ceilings falling to MVFR and eventually IFR late tonight through Monday morning. Ceilings could lift back to MVFR Monday afternoon, but at least MVFR should prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Light rain showers or drizzle could also fall Monday morning. Winds are expected to remain northerly through the forecast period. Gusty winds this evening should settle at around 10-15 kts overnight through Monday morning, then become gusty again Monday afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083-084. KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-006- 017-018.