textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms and showers are in the process of passing through much of the area this morning. The concentration of these storms/showers will be expected to gradually decrease in coverage from 10AM and 2PM. Any activity after 2PM should be fairly isolated and short lived.

- Another round of showers and storms will come back this evening into Friday morning. The greatest storm coverage and amounts (up to 0.5-1+") should be concentration across north central Kansas and Nebraska areas mainly east of HWY-281.

- Temperatures will warm up through the weekend with upper 90 to low 100 highs possible Sunday and Monday afternoon.

- Temperatures after Monday will be expected to drop back to mainly the 90s with a handful of precipitation/storm chances returning to a few portions of the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

This morning, a cluster of non-severe storms and showers are in the process of moving in from western Nebraska / northwest Kansas. These showers/storms will continue to spread east across a majority of the area through the rest of this morning to early afternoon (mainly before 2PM). The greatest storm/shower coverage should peak between now and 10AM with the coverage gradually decreasing from 10AM to mainly 2PM. Any remaining showers or weak storms after 2PM will generally be more isolated in coverage and short lived.

In terms of the expected precipitation amounts today, at least 90% of the coverage area (north central Kansas and south central Nebraska) should receive at least some measurable amount of precipitation. Though some areas may only see up to 0.1-0.5" (locations mainly northeast of the Tri-Cities or across north central Kansas), a majority of south central Nebraska will still be expected to receive amounts up to 0.5-1+". A few of the stronger storms tracking through early this morning could carry heavier downpours that may distribute locally higher rainfall amounts up to just over 1" across a few portions of south central nebraska (20-50% chance for counties along and south of I-80).

Much of the afternoon hours will be dry ahead of a second wave of precipitation expected to come in alongside a passing shortwave trough/disturbance this evening into Friday morning. The biggest shift in the forecast for precipitation chances tonight has been an east/southeast shift of confidence and precipitation amounts. The latest 6z HRRR has continued to concentrate storms across mainly Nebraska areas east of HWY-281 and across north central Kansas areas with the remainder of the area kept mostly dry (<0.1" of precip). Though not as dramatic as the HRRR, the NAMNEST also generally keeps the bulk of the showers and storms across the eastern/southeastern half of the area as well. If this east/southeast shift in precipitation continues, we suspect that many locations west of the Tri-Cities could stay dry through the night. A few stronger thunderstorms can't be ruled our across a few north central Kansas between mainly 8-11PM given just slightly better instability from the warmer surface temperatures.

Beyond the chances for precipitation, continued excessive cloud coverage today and for the first half of Friday will help keep temperatures capped once again in the mid 70s and 80s (20-35% chance for sub 70 degree highs for locations north and east of the Tri- Cities). The coolest temperatures will fall across much of south central Nebraska with the mid to upper 80s temperatures concentrated more so across far southwest Nebraska and north central Kansas areas. Temperatures after today will start to rise again with temperatures peaking in the 80s to low 90s Friday and the 90s on Saturday. As for the winds, steady to occasionally gusty southeast winds today (20-30MPH gusts) will lighten some for both Friday and Saturday (gusts <20MPH). Wind directions will more so be out of the east for Friday and out of the south for Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Showers and a few weak t-storms persist near and north of I-80 as of early afternoon. This will gradually clear through the afternoon, but lingering cloud cover will keep our northern/eastern zones significantly cooler than further southwest that have seen mostly sunny skies nearly all day.

After a dry evening, scattered showers and a few t-storms redevelop early Thursday morning, aided by convergence in the 850-700mb layer. Instability is limited, so severe weather is not expected, but this does have the potential to be produce heavier rain than Wednesday morning. Based on the 12Z HREF, localized rain totals of 1.00-2.50" are possible (10% chance), with more widespread totals in the 0.15-0.75" range.

Much like Wednesday, rain will clear out in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to rebound to the mid 70s to near 90 degrees (warmest in the southwest). One more round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop Thursday evening. Given the relative warmth in portions of KS, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out in these areas, but widespread strong to severe storms are not expected.

Friday will dry out and trend warmer, and this trend will continue into the weekend. Widespread highs in the 90s are expected to return for Saturday, and many areas will approach 100 degrees Sunday and Monday. Relatively high surface moisture will result in quite high heat index values. At this point, it appears likely (70%) that we will exceed 105 degree heat indices, and 110 degree heat indices are very possible (30%).

This wave of extreme heat looks to be relatively short-lived, though. Global ensembles favor a return to more seasonable warmth for the middle to end of next week. This will also be accompanied by additional chances for rain/t-storms, although there is some uncertainty on how widespread/beneficial these will be.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered storms this morning, now transitioning to showers, will continue to impact visibilities and ceilings at both terminals this morning through at least 16z with lingering ceilings in MVFR classifications through at least 18-20z. Though the showers may end earlier than previously expected (around 14-18z), low-ceilings as low as 400-800 ft at times, will keep IFR/LIFR conditions in and out of the area (TEMPO group from 12-14z for KEAR and through 15z for KGRI). Otherwise much of the rest of the morning will see MVFR ceilings through 18-20z.

The overcast to broken ceiling will hang around all day, temporarily hanging between 3,000-6,000ft between mainly 21-6z. Though the coverage of showers and storms will not be expected to be as widespread as the previous night, MVFR ceilings after 6-8z with IFR to LIFR ceilings after 9-10z will be likely. Visibilities may also drop some after 10z as well.

Winds will remain out of the southeast all day and night with speeds peaking in the afternoon (10-15kts and gusting as high as 20-25kts between mainly 17-1z).

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.