textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- High in the 70s and 80s today ahead of a cold front.

- Breezy winds gusting 20-30mph behind a cold front could result in briefly near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon (along/south of I-80 in Nebraska).

- Scattered thunderstorms develop along/south of the NE-KS border this evening. Small hail and gusty winds can't be ruled out with these storms.

- More widespread showers (30-70%) move into the area overnight, with off and on rain chances continuing through Wednesday. The best chances favor west/southwest portions of the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Skies are partly cloudy this morning with temperatures currently sitting in the 40s and 50s. Aloft the area is under northwesterly flow, with an embedded shortwave trough moving into the Northern Plains. Temperatures today will climb into the 70s and 80s ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. As the trough deepens over the northern Plains, it will push a cold front through the area this afternoon. Breezy northerly winds arrive behind the cold frontal passage, gusting 20-30mph. Limited moisture return combined with warm temperatures results in afternoon relative humidity values of 15-25% across central/southern portions of the area. While humidity increases somewhat behind the front, there still looks to be a couple hour window this afternoon where near-critical fire weather conditions are possible mainly for areas along and south of I-80 in Nebraska.

As the cold front reaches the Nebraska-kansas border this evening, scattered thunderstorms are favored to develop along the front. Limited instability (CAPE < 1000J/Kg) should keep storms from becoming severe (best chances east/southeast), still a stronger storm capable of producing small hail/gusty winds can't be ruled out. The strongest storms exit the area during the late evening hours, with more widespread showers/storms moving into the area overnight (30-70%).

Showers will largely exit the area by sunrise on Tuesday, with most areas seeing a lull during the daytime hours. The exception to this is across western portions of the area (along/West of Highway 183), where periods of stratiform rain push into the area. Widespread cloud coverage and cold air advection limits highs to the 50s. As the upper level trough deepens on Tuesday-Wednesday, it will begin to merge with a low over the southwest. This brings more widespread/steady stratiform rain to mainly southwestern portions of the area Tuesday night-Wednesday. Rain exits the area Wednesday night as the trough begins to move into the Midwest.

Clearing skies and a cool airmass behind the departing system could bring a chance for frost to the area Thursday morning. Otherwise the forecast remains on track, with temperatures climbing back towards normal by the end of the week as northwesterly flow builds over the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Currently through tonight...

Can't complain too much about conditions to end the weekend...with overall light winds and partly cloudy skies. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data showing northwesterly flow in place across the Central and Nrn Plains...driven primarily by broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. A weak ridge axis extends north from the Desert SW into the Rockies, while a larger area of low pressure is inching closer to the central CA coast. A weaker shortwave disturbance sliding SE off to our NNE late last night into this morning pushed a surface frontal boundary south into the forecast area...reaching far southern fringes by around midday. This front ushered in generally northeasterly winds...but with it not being a strong front, has not brought a notable increase in speeds or a change in temperatures. Highs will top out in the 70s-low 80s.

To varying degrees, some models still showing the potential for isolated showers/storms developing over the NE/SD High Plains later this afternoon...then sliding southeast with time through the evening hours. Still lingering uncertainty whether any of that activity maintains itself long enough to get into our forecast area...but with some models showing that being possible, have a small chance of precip in far NNW portions of the area for a few hours mid-late evening. Otherwise the rest of the overnight hours are expected to be dry. Winds overnight expected to be on the light/variable side, turning more WSW closer to dawn...as the area sits between the departing front from today and the next which will be making its way through the Dakotas overnight.

Monday through Wednesday...

The forecast for the first half of the new work week remains on the more active/wet side. On Monday, the forecast for much of the daytime hours remains dry...it's not until late in the day and into the evening-overnight hours that higher precip chances spread across the area. Models remain in good agreement showing upper level shortwave energy swinging through central Canada...aiding in the eventual deepening of a more organized upper low over Ontario by late evening-overnight Monday. This system will push another surface cold front south through the region...with the potential for showers and storms to develop along it mid-late afternoon...so its progress/location is an important detail. Still some lingering slight differences between models with where the boundary is when activity develops...ranging from closer to the NE/KS state line to a touch further south and closer to I-70. Ahead of the front...not much change with forecast highs, reaching well into the 70s and lower 80s. Because of the short period between frontal passages...the surface pattern never gets much of a chance to bring more solidly southerly flow to the area and increased moisture return. Forecast dewpoints through the afternoon remain in the 30s- 40s...so models are keeping instability mainly less than 1000 j/kg, with better values more focused over eastern KS where dewpoints closer to/over 50 are expected. Can't rule out some storms being on the stronger side...but the better threat for severe storms remains focused just off to our E-SE, where the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area remains.

For the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame...no notable changes with models, and the forecast continues to have widespread precipitation chances. The forecast remains situated on the southern edge of larger, broader troughing driven by that Canadian low creeping further east. The daytime hours on Tuesday may end up being somewhat of a lull in activity...especially the further north and east you go. Tuesday evening on into Wednesday, models show another push of upper level shortwave energy through the Plains...with recent runs generally focusing the better chances for precip across roughly the SSW half of the forecast area. Sitting north of the main sfc frontal boundaries...models not showing much potential for instability/thunder, so just plain rain showers is the primary precip type. Expecting generally northerly winds during this period, with plenty of cloud cover...and notably cooler temps, with highs both Tue-Wed forecast to top out in the 50s.

Thursday on into next weekend...

Models are in decent agreement with the broad picture...showing the upper level pattern continuing to be mainly northwesterly, at times more zonal, through next weekend. This pattern looks to bring periodic shortwave disturbances through the Plains...especially as we get into the weekend period. Lot of details to iron out over this week, don't get too hung up on specifics that far out. Following those Tue-Wed highs in the 50s, temps are expected to climb back into the 70s for Thu-Sun.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main concerns through this TAF period lie with winds the rest of today...then increasing chances for rain this evening on through the end of the period. For the rest of this afternoon, expecting mostly sunny skies to start, with increasing cloud cover with time...and gusty northerly winds behind a passing cold front. Gusts near 25-30 MPH will be possible through the daytime hours. Rain chances spread across the area this evening-tonight...but due to the potential for it being scattered in nature, kept just a VCSH mention in the prevailing groups with embedded PROB30 groups. Currently have conditions remaining VFR through the period...but late tonight through the end of the period, cloud bases may flirt with MVFR criteria.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.