textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Today marks one last day of FAR-ABOVE-NORMAL (and likely daily- record breaking) temperatures well into the 70s before cooler (but still above normal) highs mainly in the 50s return the next several days (see separate CLIMATE section below for more details regarding record temps at Grand Island/Hastings). - Although winds will not be OVERLY-strong, the combination of gusts at least 20-25 MPH and unseasonable warmth/very low relative humidity will promote widespread near-critical and localized critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and Red Flag Warnings have been issued for limited portions of our forecast area (see separate FIRE WEATHER section below for more details)

- Recent/ongoing warmth will continue promoting steady ice melt/movement and potential localized ice jam flooding these next few days along the Platte and Loup River systems (see separate HYDROLOGY section below for more details).

- Overnight tonight, a relatively brief "surge" of moderately- strong northerly winds will race southward through our area (gusts at least 30-35 MPH likely and gusts at least 40-45 MPH possible).

- Precipitation-wise: a rather high-confidence dry forecast continues through at least Wed night, before various "iffy" and mainly low-probability chances (no higher than 20-40%) for mainly rain enter the picture primarily Thurs-Sat.

UPDATE

Issued at 445 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES WITHIN THE 7-DAY FORECAST AS A WHOLE: - 1) High temps for today came up a few more degrees, with the majority of our CWA now expected to top out 74-79 degrees (and a rogue 80 not completely out of the question).

- 2) Northerly wind gusts for Monday night were raised into at least the 30-35 MPH range (and quite possibly not high enough).

- 3) Although a CONSIDERABLE amount of uncertainty still surrounds the (mainly rain) chances Thurs-Sat, if anything this latest forecast cycle has lowered the chances (PoPs) to no higher than 20-40% in any given day/night period. At least for now, the MAIN/larger-scale rain chances look to focus both slightly north and especially slightly south of our CWA.

-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS: - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 415 AM: In short, it's been a very quiet, uneventul and easonably-mild overnight across our CWA. Under west-northwesterly flow aloft and under only spotty thin high cirrus clouds, low temperatures are on track to bottom out somewhere between the upper 20s-mid 30s in most places (perhaps a few slightly colder/warmer exceptions). Breezes are range from near-calm up to only around 7-9 MPH, mainly out of the southwest.

- TODAY (just how warm will it get?): After seeing high temps "overachieve" our forecast by at least 3-6 degrees in most areas yesterday, this forecaster naturally wonders if we're aiming high enough for today? With low-level temperatures warmer than yesterday and at least somewhat-breezy southerly-to-westerly winds expected, there is little doubt that record highs well into the 70s are likely. About the only caveat would be if the coverage of high level cirrus clouds are a bit greater than anticipated, but right now skies are expected to average mostly sunny to partly cloudy at worst. For latest forecast highs, ended up blending various sets of usually- reliable guidance together and then bumping up a few degrees, putting most of our CWA into the 74-79 range...certainly rare territory for especially the FIRST HALF of February. See separate FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY/CLIMATE sections below for regarding today.

- TONIGHT: Starting this evening in our north half and then eventually reaching our southern (Kansas) counties a bit later in the night, a seasonably-strong cold front will slice southward across our CWA. The intial surge (driven by strong surface pressure rises) will be relatively strong, with the latest HRRR indicating at least a 1-2 hour period of gusts perhaps as high as high as 40-45 MPH in the immediate wake of this front. Although our official forecast is not quite this strong, did increase the speeds noticeably from previous forecast, with sustained speeds overnight now aimed at least 20-25 MPH for several hours/gusts at least 30-35 MPH for a few hours. This will be a dry frontal passage, with only a smattering of lower clouds accompanying mainly increasing higher-level clouds. Low temps were changed very little...most of the CWA aimed low-mid 30s.

- TUESDAY DAYTIME: It will surely feel a bit "cool" compared to today's likely record-warmth, but this will officially be another solidly- warmer-than-normal day with high temperatures forecast right around 50 to slightly above 50 most places. Although still a bit breezy especially in the morning (northerly winds sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts around 20 MPH), winds will gradually ease up in the afternoon as surface high pressure approaches. Skies should generally transition from partly-mostly cloudy in the morning...to partly cloudy-mostly sunny in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A well defined upper level low can be seen in water vapor imagery this afternoon sliding across south central Nebraska. This low has forced some mid-level cloud cover across the heart of the CWA, with cameras indicating little more than virga being observed despite the light returns evident on radar. As this upper level low continues to slide southeast and exit the local area tonight, expect a few high clouds to begin to filter in across the region from the west, with these high clouds - combined with a light westerly wind - expected to hold up overnight lows a couple of degrees from this mornings near freezing start.

With a slightly warmer start to the day, modest westerly (downslope) flow, and partly sunny skies, new record high temperatures appear to be a lock for tomorrow afternoon, and raised high temperatures into the mid-70s for most locations. With these warm temperatures and a relatively dry airmass ahead of an approaching cold front, expect minimum RH values to plummet below 20 percent across the majority of the local area, prompting some fire weather concerns. Thankfully, winds - while potentially breezy at times, will diminish in the pre-frontal trough by mid/late afternoon, likely helping to limit more critical conditions. As a result, will continue to advertise near-critical fire weather concerns Monday afternoon for the entire area, but opted against any sort of fire weather headline for the time-being.

Expect the aforementioned cold front to cross the local area Monday night with little fanfare, with cooler - but still seasonably warm temperatures - settling in across the local area for Tuesday along with a breezy north wind. The seasonably warm temperatures will then likely linger through the end of the week as a more zonal upper level pattern establishes itself across the Central Plains. As a result, the subsequent upper level disturbance is now expected to pass well south of the area over the middle portion of the week, with the small pops we had in the forecast over the past couple of days continuing to be pushed farther and farther out in the period.

While some small pops creep into the area as early as Wednesday night/Thursday, the better chances continue to look towards maybe Friday afternoon/evening, albeit confidence is not particularly high due to differences in the GFS/EC as well as many ensemble members backing off on the potential for precipitation over this period. Of more confidence are temperatures, which should remain in that seasonably mild category, with most days topping out in the 50s (with low's near/slightly below freezing) - which represents temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for mid February.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions very likely (90%+) through the period with only SCT to BKN high cirrus clouds expected. Main aviation concern will be winds - somewhat breezy out of the SW this afternoon, then a sharp turn to the N and increase behind a cold front. This frontal passage looks to be late in this valid TAF period, around 03Z-04Z. Winds along/behind the front could increase to sustained 20-25kt and gusts 30-35kt for at least a few hours Monday night. Confidence: High.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 445 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- NEAR-CRITICAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON:

Although the one bit of good news is that winds will not be OVERLY-strong (gusts unlikely to exceed 25-30 MPH), they will still be just breezy enough in the presence of unseasonably- warm temperatures to put our entire forecast area (CWA) in "near-critical" fire weather thresholds for this afternoon...and also prompt at least localized areas of "marginally-critical" conditions. The relative humidity (RH) component to fire weather concern appears to be a "slam dunk", with our entire CWA forecast to bottom out at least as low as 15-20 percent.

Admittedly, deciding whether to issue/where to issue official Red Flag Warnings for this afternoon was a somewhat tough call. Arguments could be made that perhaps more of our CWA should be under a Red Flag Warning, but in trying to stay as "true" to critical criteria as possible (defined below), it was ultimately decided to target two separate areas that appear to carry the highest potential to observe gusts at/above 25 MPH for 3+ hours. These two areas are:

1) Our far northern Nebraska CWA, where especially Valley/Greeley/ Sherman/Howard counties could see 3+ hours of 25 MPH gusts out of the west-southwest.

2) Our far southern Kansas CWA, where especially Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties could see 3+ hours of 25+ MPH gusts out of the south-southwest.

Again though, even outside of the aforementioned 7 counties that wunder official Red Flag Warnings, fire danger will at least reach near-critical within our entire forecast area...it's just that wind gusts are expected to either fall short of 25 MPH or at least not reach 25+ MPH for 3+ hours. Certainly there could be some "close calls", and day shift will need to monitor closely in case additional counties appear "eligible" for Warning consideration.

-- NOTE: - NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 445 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- LOCALIZED ICE JAM POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ALONG THE PLATTE/LOUP RIVER SYSTEMS:

With near-record temps yesterday, expected record temps today and cooler but still solidly above normal temps on Tuesday, considerable ice melt/movement will surely persist along the Platte and Loup River systems in our Nebraska forecast area for a few more days, along with the possibility of localized ice jam flooding.

On Sunday, minor lowland flooding was observed/confirmed in a typical "trouble spot" along the Platte River near and up to a few miles downstream of the I-80/Hwy 281 Interchange near Grand Island (including Locust Street area), prompting the issuance of an ongoing Flood Advisory. However, at this time we have no "ground truth" confirmation of additinal ongoing flooding issues, although a few river gages at least "hint" at some ice movement (including North Loup River near St. Paul and Loup River near Genoa).

The potential for continued ice jam flooding concerns will continue to be highlighted in both our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) as well as in a Special Weather Statement (SPSGID), with any official Advisories/Warnings reserved for confirmed flooding that could cause at least minor issues to property, roads, etc.

PLEASE NOTE: Unlike "traditional" warm season flooding from heavy rain that is typically easier to detect via radar rainfall estimation and the network of river gages, ice jam flooding is typically difficult to detect proactively/remotely (unless it occurs very near a gauge). Thus we are ESPECIALLY RELIANT on emergency management, spotters etc. to keep us informed of any ongoing ice jam flooding issues.

CLIMATE

Issued at 445 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY (FEB. 9):

We came closer than expected to at least tying existing record highs yesterday (Feb. 8), and today we are all but "guaranteeing" (okay, at least a 90% chance) that we'll set new Feb. 9th record highs at Grand Island/Hasting airports (these are the two NWS-maintained sensors for which we issue official Record Event Reports/RERs).

- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST Grand Island, NE (GRI) Feb. 9: 70 in 1996 | 77 --------------- Hastings, NE (HSI) Feb. 9: 70 in 1954 | 76

- RELATED SIDE NOTES: 1) Although expected to be "safe", the record high temperature for ANY FEBRUARY DAY at both sites is 80 derees (Grand Island on Feb. 25, 1995 and Hastings three different times...most recently Feb. 28, 2006).

2) Should Grand Island reach at least 77 degrees as forecast, this would be the warmest temperature on ANY February day in 2 years...since 78 on Feb. 26, 2024. However, it would mark the warmest temperature during the FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY in 9 years...since 77 on Feb. 10, 2017 (which is also the Grand Island record for the first half of February).

3) Should Hastings reach at least 76 degrees as forecast, this would be the warmest temperature on ANY February day in 2 years...since 76 on Feb. 26, 2024. However, it would mark the warmest temperature every recorded during the FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY (the existing "first half" record is 75 degrees set twice...most recently Feb. 14, 1967).

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ039-040-046-047. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ017>019.