textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Area of upper level low pressure continues to gradually work east across southern KS early this morning...will be keeping scattered-widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms going across mainly the southern half of the forecast area.

- During the daytime hours today, the main upper low will gradually shift northeast with time...resulting in preciptiation diminishing from west to east. Precipitation is expected to end by early-mid evening, with the rest of the night being dry.

- After today...outside of a small chance of showers swinging through late Wed night into Thu AM...the forecast through the upcoming weekend is dry.

UPDATE

Issued at 155 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Currently...

Wet, dreary and overcast conditions ongoing across the forecast currently will continue on through the early morning hours...as scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms gradually work their way across the region. Easy to pick out the main upper level feature driving this on both radar and satellite data...an area of low pressure spinning over south central portions of KS. This low is set up near the base of a larger scale trough axis extending from the Srn Plains northward into central Canada...elsewhere across the CONUS, data showing one ridge axis gradually pushing toward the East Coast, while another extends roughly from Srn CA northward into the ID/MT border area and another potent low is approaching the northern CA coast. At the surface, it's taken its sweet time, but the main frontal boundary has finally pushed to the southeast of the forecast area (barely)...draped from central TX northward through eastern NE into central MN. The gusty NNWrly winds will continue the rest of tonight, including gusts over 30 MPH. Radar estimates showing a swath of anywhere from 1-3 inches extending from Phillips/Rooks counties northeastward into Nance/Merrick counties from earlier...more recent activity has focused a bit further south of that swath, but will continue keeping a close eye on how things evolve in the coming hours for any hydro concerns.

Today/tonight...

Main story for the immediate short-term period will continue to lie with the evolution of this upper level low pressure system and the lingering precipitation chances. Really not any notable changes in the models with the track of the low...taking it from its currently location in south central KS northeastward into NErn KS around midday...then reaching into SWrn IA by early-mid evening. This northeast track keeps the low in close proximity to the local forecast area...meaning preciptiation is going to be slow to clear. Chances will gradually diminish from west to east during the day...mainly focusing along/east of HWY 281 from midday on through the afternoon. There is generally good agreement that while some lingering activity could remain over far NErn portions of the area early this evening...things should dry out by late evening/midnight. Once precip comes to an end, the rest of tonight is expected to be dry.

At the surface, we'll also be sitting on the WNW edge of an area of low pressure...which will keep winds gusty out of the NNW through the day today. Expecting widespread gusts in the 25-35 MPH range, not out of the question some gusts closer to 40 MPH occur. Like precipitation chances, speeds/gusts are expected to gradually diminish this afternoon into the evening hours. For most of the forecast area, not a lot of hope for seeing much/if any sun...some potential later in the day for western portions that dry out earlier. No big changes made to forecast highs today, which are notably cooler than Monday...forecast to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s (normal for this time of year is mid 50s-near 60).

Wednesday and on...

By the time sunrise Wednesday rolls around, expecting to have dry conditions in place across the forecast area...with the this latest low pressure system having moved near the MN/IA border area. Models showing another disturbance moving into the UT area...which looks to eventually push east into southern KS Wed night-Thur AM. While not great chances, and not widespread chances...models showing the potential for precipitation to clip the area as that disturbance shifts east across KS. Outside of those chances...the forecast thorugh the end of the weekend into this weekend remains dry. As far as temperatures go...looking at highs mainly in the 50s to continue Wed-Fri, with some lower 60s working back into at least part of the area for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1239 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Synoptic Overview...

An upper-level trough is currently situated over the inter-mountain west. Embedded within this parent trough is a shortwave currently over the Dakotas, supporting a surface low pressure center in central South Dakota, with a cold front stretched in central Nebraska (more to come). The main vorticity maximum associated with this system currently resides near Southeastern Colorado.

This Afternoon and Evening...

Strong southerly winds, gusting to 35 MPH, are expected to continue through the afternoon ahead of this approaching cold front. Furthermore, skies will continue to clear, as the surface low pressure center continues to lift northeast. These clear skies and strong southerly winds will allow highs to increase into the 70s ahead of the cold front.

As this surface low continues to develop underneath the parent trough, a cold front will advance into the area. As this cold front barrels through the area, it will serve as the main forcing mechanism for scattered strong to marginally severe thunderstorms between 3-5 PM, mainly along and southeast of a line from roughly Phillipsburg to Aurora to Columbus (though this could shift slightly depending of frontal timing). Strong winds and hail will be the primary threat, as surface dew points over 60 degrees (high for early November) allow CAPE values to reach 1200-1500 J/kg, along with 30-40kts of effective layer shear. However, a couple weak, isolated tornadoes are not out of the question, as we have roughly 20 kts of 0-1km shear and over low-level SRH values over 100. The main timeframe for these severe hazards will be 4-8PM. These storms could also be efficient rain producers thanks to precipitable water values over 1 inch and a long- skinny CAPE profile, with localized 2-3 inches possible in strongest cores.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

While severe storms are not likely after 9PM, isolated thunderstorms and rain showers will continue through the night, before eventually trailing off in the early afternoon. An additional 0.10-0.25 inches of precipitation are possible with these showers/storms. Even after the precipitation has weaned, the low pressure center will continue to have its effect on the local weather. Strong, gusty winds will also continue through tomorrow evening, with gusts up to 40-45 MPH possible. Highs tomorrow will be limited to the mid 40s to mid 50s, as the low-level stratus layer prevents much sunshine along with some strong cold advection through the day.

Rest of the Week ...

The rest of the forecast period will see near- normal temperatures, with highs in the 50s, as the upper level low hangs out in the Midwest through at least midweek. While most of the forecast is expected to be dry, there is a small chance (up to 15%) of showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, in the broad cyclonic flow around the upper low as it moves east. After tonight, low temperatures will return to to the 30s, with below freezing temperatures possible each night, particularly for northwestern portions of the area. Friday morning looks to be the coolest, with lows falling below 30 degrees (freezing line roughly from Phillipsburg to Hastings to York).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Chances for showers and low ceilings will continue to dominate much of this TAF period at both terminal sites. Main upper low driving these precip chances will gradually shift east-northeast through the period...the slower departure looking to keep the terminal sites on at least the back fringes of precip around into part of the afternoon hours. Models showing coverage diminishing from west to east with time, confidence in the exact timing of the end of precip is not high...have precip out of the prevailing conditions around 20Z. Kept ceilings anywhere from MVFR to IFR through the period...lowest either side of sunrise, lifting this afternoon/evening. Not out of the question that VFR conditions could work their way back in later in the period...again confidence in that timing is not high. Expecting gusty NW winds to continue through much of the period, gusts exceeding 30 MPH will be possible through the afternoon hours...the tapering off this evening.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.