textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cool again today before a warming trend begins for the new work week and peaks Wednesday and Friday with highs in the 60s.

- Strong southerly winds will accompany the warmer temperatures, particularly Tuesday-Wednesday and Friday-Saturday when gusts may reach as high as 40-45 MPH, in spots.

- Outside of a few light rain showers this morning SW of the Tri-Cities, the forecast remains dry late week and into next weekend. This activity looks to be mostly/all rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 450 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A few light showers and/or sprinkles have developed SW of the Tri-Cities early this morning. This activity will move SSE to NNW and gradually weaken/dissipate next few hours. Any rain amounts will be very light - trace to few hundredths. Otherwise, today should be seasonably pleasant/cool with gradually decreasing clouds for the afternoon and slightly weaker winds. Highs have trended a degree or two warmer and should generally top out in the lower 50s. Cool and dry conditions are expected tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s.

Much of the previous discussion (below) remains on track with the general weather conditions expected for the upcoming work week - warmer, but also breezy to downright windy. Despite the strong winds and warmer temperatures, fire weather concerns are low given a lack of dry air.

Still looks like a stronger, more organized system is favored to track across the plains sometime late week into next weekend. Widespread positive temperature anomalies precede this system - both locally and further N/NW in our typical source region for colder temperatures. Thus, the system would need to deepen sufficiently to dynamically cool enough to change rain over to snow. This appears unlikely for our area given fairly consistent ensemble track of the mid level low center (and accompanying dry slot) tracking right over our area. This would place the greatest chances for snow over the N Sandhills and NE Panhandle region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A moderate pressure gradient has developed across the central plains, as a high pressure center has continued to strengthen through the Midwest. This pressure gradient is expected to increase into the afternoon, as an approaching shortwave trough causes the pressure to fall across the Rocky Mountains and southern plains. This pressure gradient will allow gusty south- southeasterly winds through the afternoon, with gusts of 25-30 MPH possible. Additionally, a band of low-level clouds currently over western Nebraska and western Kansas looks to be expanding slightly to the east. High temperatures will stay suppressed in the low 40s under this cloud cover (particularly along and west of Highway 183). Outside of these clouds, sunshine and strong southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon.

As the shortwave trough continues to move eastward tonight, a broad region of precipitation will develop in the southern plains. Current model guidance has continued to show the northern fringe of this system reaching up into central Kansas, with a small chance of this precipitation reaching up into our northern Kansas counties. Aside from these precipitation chances, this system will bring some low-level clouds across much of the area tonight, allowing lows to fall only into the low to mid 30s.

After this wave moves across the plains, a broad upper level ridge will build across the central CONUS. This ridge will allow for a dry, warming period to start the week, as high temperatures increase to near 50 tomorrow and peak into the 60s Wednesday afternoon. Along with this warming trend, the surface high pressure center will expand across the Mississippi Valley, allowing some breezy southerly winds to continue through the beginning of the week. South-southeasterly winds will gust up to 30-35 MPH tomorrow and Monday. As the next system starts to cause some pressure falls in the higher terrain Tuesday, these winds will increase, with sustained southerly winds around 20-25 MPH and gusts up to 40-45 MPH possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

A more active weather pattern returns towards the end of next week. First, there is a slight (10-15%) chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday, as a disturbance crosses the area. However, more promising precipitation chances return next weekend (roughly 60-80% chance), as a more prominent trough moves into the area. Most model guidance is in agreement that some sort of low pressure system will develop over the central plains sometime Friday or Saturday. However, there is some disagreement on the timing and location of this system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence in VFR conditions through the afternoon. Skies will be mostly clear this afternoon. Tonight, there is a chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings tonight into tomorrow morning, with greatest uncertainty in the coverage of these low clouds. Latest guidance has shifted this cloud cover more to the east of the terminals, with KEAR on the edge of this cloud layer. This uncertainty is captured in the scattered MVFR cloud groups for tomorrow morning. There also is a low chance of some fog tomorrow morning, with visibilities falling below 3 miles possible. However, there is low confidence in this occurring, as winds speeds may limit this fog development. Winds today will be southerly around 10-12kt, with gusts up to 18kt possible. Winds tonight will decrease slightly to around 8kt, before increasing again mid morning tomorrow.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.