textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated (15-30%) chances for thunderstorm late afternoon and early evening today and again Friday (same time).

- Potential for more expansive severe weather this weekend though exact details are hard to come by at this time.

- Very warm/hot temperatures through Sunday all areas, especially Sunday when records could be broken.

- The heat on Sunday could team with low RH and stronger winds to produce extreme fire weather conditions for some areas of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A weak inverted surface trough is working into south central Nebraska and north central Kansas late this afternoon. Moisture has increased slightly ahead of that feature with dewpoints near 50 degrees along Highway 24 in north central Kansas. High clouds spilling east have taken the top end off the temperatures today though it is still warm and above normal. To that end, there is some risk of an isolated storm, mainly across north central Kansas either side of 6 PM. However, shear is weak and warmer mid-level temperatures don't help. So, anything that does develop will be very limited in scope/coverage, and likely only marginally strong/severe at most. Higher-based wind producers would main hazard.

Friday is well above normal again with highs in the lower 90s as the region catching much more sunshine that today, though less wind. Winds will shift late in the afternoon across northern areas as front sags south. That front has bit more push than today, and will have more low level moisture as well. Areas east and south of Hastings look like a more favored area for a stronger/severe storm with both hail and wind the primary factors. The window of opportunity is fairly small, probably about 4-5 pm to 8-9 pm before storms move east and the surface front retreats.

The weekend is interesting from a weather standpoint, but also wrought with uncertainty. Most of the area is currently included in a slight to potentially enhanced risk of severe weather. The upper pattern is more favorable as a trough moves into the Rockies providing better dynamics and shear. Low level moisture will also increase though it could be a limiting factor at times, especially given the ground is so dry in some areas thanks to D3/D4 drought. While there are substantially higher rain...and there will be rain...it may not rain everywhere, nor is it a rain out. In fact, we are forecasting near 100 degree temperatures Sunday, and that doesn't exactly say lots of clouds/rain. Right now, the favored times for storms are Saturday night and Sunday night, while the days trend toward more dry. Saturday night seems to have the best potential for an organized line of storms or series of storms with severe potential. There is lots of uncertainty with this forecast and it is going to change with time so stay tuned.

The other thing of interest, but also uncertainty, is the heat and potential fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon. Even with green up in some areas, the 100 degree heat potential would translate into extremely low relative humidity Sunday afternoon along with strong winds. However, if convection from the previous night/early morning areas occurs, it could alter the low level moisture/wind set up. Still 72 hours away, this is something to watch with time. FYI, the current high temperature forecast for Sunday would be record breaking for Grand Island and Hastings.

On Monday, a strong front moves through and that could bring one final opportunity for more organized thunderstorms. After that, temperatures are much closer too or even below normal for the middle of next week. Rain chances will be retreating at the same time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with a few passing mid/high level clouds at times. Expect the smallest chance for a -SHRA or -TSRA the next couple of hours at either terminal, but given model/radar trends, this appears less and less likely and even reduced cloud cover through the evening hours as a result.

Winds will generally be light and variable overnight as and area of surface high pressure slides east across Nebraska, with generally light, but more southerly - in return flow across the region on Friday. Late in the period, models are hinting at some convective development around or just before 16/00Z...and may eventually need to add this to future TAFs depending on how the newest model data comes in this evening and overnight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.