textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions persist area wide today, with widespread heat index values over 100 degrees anticipated. The most oppressive heat will be across our far south, where a heat advisory is in effect for Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell counties this afternoon/early evening.

- Thunderstorms will attempt to roll into the area from the west again tonight, but very limited (5-15%) coverage is expected.

- Better chances for storms arrive Wednesday evening, and an overall more active weather pattern is expected for the second half of the week and into the weekend. There is a marginal to slight (level 1-2 of 5) for severe weather on Wednesday evening/night.

- Temperatures taper off to more seasonably cool levels areawide with the arrival of the more active pattern (and more clouds), with mainly 70s and 80s for highs Friday through next Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

A warm start across the local area today with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms making their way across the area early this morning. This activity is mainly limited to areas southeast of the tri-cities and should exit to the east by around daybreak. So far this morning, the temp/dewpoint spread along with mainly steady south winds have been enough to prevent any fog formation...although models are still hinting at some light fog formation possible over the next few hours mainly north of Highway 92. With some evidence of stratus developing across north central Nebraska early this morning, have a mention of patchy fog through the morning hours north of the tri-cities.

For today, expect another hot and humid day across the region as the frontal boundary that kept the worst of the heat across north central Kansas the past few days has lifted north towards the SD border. That said, models indicate that the convection tracking across SD early this morning should help push this boundary back south later in the day, but likely not before much of the local area realizes heat index values approach or exceed 100 degrees early this afternoon. While it was considered to expand the heat advisory for this afternoon further north to include areas mainly south of Highway 6, uncertainty in how fast/far the boundary to our north retreats southward later this morning/afternoon was high enough to hold off for the time being. That said, it will still be hot will well above normal temperatures areawide.

Limited thunderstorm chances return to the area this evening, but again, coverage will be very spotty with most areas expected to remain dry. This should change Wednesday evening, however, as a stronger disturbance and weakening ridge should allow for a much better chance of thunderstorms across the area Wednesday night. While the timing is not exactly ideal for severe weather (late night/overnight), there will be a good chance for strong thunderstorm wind gusts and marginally severe hail as soundings indicate plenty of elevated instability persisting through the overnight hours along with sufficient forcing to keep thunderstorms going.

Behind Wednesdays thunderstorm chances, seasonably cool weather along with additional rain/thunder chances will continue off and on through the upcoming weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 445 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Once morning fog burned off we quickly transitioned to another warm/hot and steamy afternoon. Mid to even upper 70s dew points are common across south central Nebraska, which when combined with air temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s is still leading to heat indices around or just above 100 degrees. Further south into KS, drier air has worked in from the SW, but this is just helping to raise air temperatures even further into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. So no matter where one is in the CWA this afternoon, it certainly still feels like summer.

Main question this evening surrounds the ability for convection to maintain itself as it rolls E off the High Plains, potentially into our far W zones as early as 02Z-03Z. Most of the recent CAM guidance weakens this activity pretty quickly after sunset thanks to rapidly increasing ML CINH. However, its possible that a strengthening low level jet (up to 35-45kt) could help offset or delay some of this weakening. IF storms can maintain some intensity, the main threat would be gusty winds of 50-60 MPH, and would likely remain mainly W through NW of the Tri-Cities. Activity should weaken to mainly just lingering showers by around and esp. after midnight. Unfortunately, this doesn't appear to be a big rain-maker, even for the areas that do get hit, owing to the expected weakening trend.

Another question for the overnight period will be if we see yet another round of fog. Neither deterministic models or ensembles have an overly strong/obvious signature for fog tonight...but simple pattern recognition (light winds/high BL RH) and persistence from past few days suggests it's certainly a possibility. Guidance that does hint at fog suggests it would be mainly N of I-80. Will obviously need to monitor these trends throughout the evening and overnight, but for now, have left out of the HWO and just included some fog mention in the grids.

Pattern begins to break down on Wednesday as the strong upper high centered over the Four Corners region now shifts E and reorients over the Deep South. This pattern shift will likely result in more active zonal or even SW flow aloft, with a parade of weak disturbances supporting frequent rounds of convection that initially develops along the high plains during the afternoon, then shifts E during the evening/night. Moisture will likely NOT be a limiting factor as a SE CONUS upper ridge in August often allows for monsoonal moisture to be pulled well N then E onto the Plains to interact with the frequent upper disturbances. There will likely be at least SOME severe weather and heavy rain potential in this type of pattern nearly daily through the weekend, and this begins with the entire forecast area being in either a marginal or slight risk (level 1-2 of 5) on Wednesday.

With the more frequent rain chances will also come increased cloud cover and gradually cooler temperatures. We probably won't be able to shake the humidity (still have a lot of evapotranspiration happening each day), but the upper pattern described above should shunt any significant low level thermal ridging further S, allowing for mainly 70s and 80s for Friday and into the weekend during any daytime dry breaks.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions anticipated through the period with just some passing high level clouds and generally light southerly flow around 10-12 KTS today becoming light and variable by 12/01Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ017>019.