textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances (30-50%) of showers/thunderstorms today, mainly between noon-7PM this afternoon. None of these storms are expected to be severe.

- Precipitation chances continue Wednesday morning through early afternoon, with a 50-80% chance. Again, severe storms are not expected.

- Cooler temperatures today through Thursday, with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s.

- After Thursday, a drier period is expected. Temperatures will increase through the weekend, with highs into the 90s by Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The main message of the short term forecast (Days 1-3) is the cooler temperatures and continued chance of precipitation. Taking a look at the synoptic pattern, a broad long-wave trough resides over the Hudson Bay. Within this trough exists a couple of vorticity maximums, one of which supported the low-pressure center and associated cold front that moved through the area overnight. This cold front posed as the main forcing mechanism for the showers and thunderstorms observed overnight, and will continue supporting lingering storms into the morning hours as the front clears central NE/KS. In the wake of this cold front, model guidance has continued to support spotty storm development. The main timeframe for this redevelopment is between noon-7PM, although a few early birds and stranglers can't be ruled out. Furthermore, some uncertainty remains with the overall coverage of this precipitation and if it will linger into Wednesday morning. These storms are not expected to be severe, with CAPE values less than 100 J/kg through most of the area despite the availability of shear greater than 30 kts. Aside from the precipitation chances, strong NE winds will decrease through the afternoon, with wind gusts of 20-25 mph possible through the afternoon. This, combined with midlevel cloud cover, will keep temperatures cool, with highs in the low 70s to low 80s.

The other shortwave mentioned above will dig into the area Wednesday, supporting more widespread showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Both LREF and NBM show 6 hour precip probabilities of 50-80% of rain between Wednesday morning into early afternoon in south central NE, mainly concentrated along and south of I80. However, there is some uncertainty in the timing and coverage of these storms, as some model guidance brings this convection through the area as early as 10AM. Nonetheless, EFI/SOT is highlighting a wetter than normal rainfall for south central NE Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, with a 40-60% chance of seeing over 0.50 inches of rain by Thursday morning for locations between I-80 and the state line. Winds will be less of an issue Wednesday, with predominantly ENE winds of 10-15 MPH. Wednesday and Thursday will again be cooler than normal, with an EFI greater than 0.7 for most of the area and highs in the 70s to low 80s.

As for the extended forecast (Day 3 and beyond), not much has changed, as model guidance is still suggesting a gradual increase in temperatures through the weekend as an upper level ridge builds into the area. There is high confidence (85-95%) of dry weekend ahead.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Currently Through Tonight...

Been a warmer, gusty start to the work week across the entire forecast area...and while the majority are sitting with little/no cloud cover, satellite imagery showing a fairly thick batch of wildfire smoke passing through, keeping skies hazy. This smoke has remain in the upper levels, with no area automated sites showing any reductions in visibility, a trend that should continue the rest of the day. Looking aloft, data showing high pressure centered over AZ/NM...with a dampened ridge axis extending northeastward through the Central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Troughing/low pressure along the East Coast is keeping this ridging from sliding east...while low pressure over north-central Canada and southward extending troughing into the NNWrn CONUS is what has diminished the ridge strength. Satellite imagery showing a shortwave disturbance making its way east across the Nrn Rockies...which will aid in storm development with time this afternoon. At the surface, the gusty south-southeasterly winds are being driven by a tightened pressure gradient in place...set up between high pressure over much of the Midwest and an approaching cold front. This front currently sits from the southern NE panhandle up into central SD...with winds across the forecast area gusting around 25-30 MPH. Temps are a touch warmer...with 3PM obs sitting in the mid 80s to mid 90s.

At least scattered activity is expected to continue developing along that surface frontal boundary the rest of this afternoon...with the main question going into this evening/tonight continuing to lie with how much of an impact there is on our forecast area. Models continue to the better potential being several hours off yet, and kept an mention of chances out through 00Z (some models say it could be closer to 02-03Z). Through the overnight hours...there still some differences with just how much coverage there is, but general idea is that things end up staying on the more scattered side. Lift is aided by an increasing southwesterly LLJ, but the better upper level forcing remains off to our north. Storm chances have other things working against there being greater coverage with time...loss of daytime heating. models showing warm mid- level temps/capping remaining in place, and the further east things push, should push out of the area of better instability. Still not out of the question that a few storms early on could be on the strong to marginally severe side...and our WNW portions remain in the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area. Gusts near 60 MPH and quarter size hail would be the primary hazards. Didn't get cute with PoPs through the overnight hours...pretty much anywhere could see at least an isolated shower/storm, so kept the 20 percent chances going CWA-wide.

The main surface cold front will continue sinking south with time overnight...by 12Z Tuesday, models are in pretty good agreement showing the front draped across the southeastern quarter or so of the forecast area. May end up with a gradient in lows tonight ranging from the upper 50s in the far NW to around 70 in the SE.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Overall, no notable changes in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday...with continued precipitation chances and cooler temperatures still expected. Models remain in generally good agreement in the broader-scale. showing the upper level pattern remaining zonal across the Central Plains. Although on the weaker side, models showing the potential for enough lift lingering around to keep chances for at least spotty precipitation around for much of the day. Still some differences and uncertainty with the overall coverage...and whether there is a bit stronger of a wave/more precip coverage as we get more into the evening/overnight hours into Wed AM. NBM have some widespread, higher PoPs between 06-18Z Wed (60-70 percent)...the models supporting that timing show the better potential mainly across portions of south central NE. Still looking like the potential for severe weather is low, better instability should be becoming more focused to our south. With the increased cloud cover, precipitation chances, and continued northeasterly winds behind the cold front...high temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s-low 80s on Tuesday to low-mid 70s for Wednesday.

Thursday and on...

For the end of this week on into the start of next week...again not much as far as notable changes go in the forecast. Models continue to show the upper level pattern across the region in varying degrees of west-northwesterly flow. The main ridge tries to build back north over the western CONUS...but additional larger-scale disturbances mainly moving across Canada prevent it from amplifying too much. Precipitation chances Thursday through the weekend are spotty at best...and confidence in those chances are certainly not high at this point. After the cooler temps Tue-Wed, temperatures look to bounce back well into the 90s for next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Though not widespread or long lasting, ceilings as low as 1,500ft may occasionally come and go across the morning hours (through mainly 18z) as low-level clouds near scattered to broken classifications. The main cloud base will generally range between 5-15kft for the day. A chance of MVFR ceilings (20-40%) return late tonight into Wednesday morning as a few showers and non-severe thunderstorms approach the area. As of now, the mention remains in a prob30 group as confidence is on the lower end for now.

Any scattered storms that near the vicinity of KEAR/KGRI this afternoon (best potential between 17-13z) should be fairly short-lived with limited aviation impacts. The winds will remain out of a northeasterly direction through the day and night. Wind speeds are likely at their strongest point (currently gusting as high as 25-30kts as of 11z). Speeds will eventually dampen over the mainly evening and overnight period. Otherwise, the next chance of precipitation, possible in the form of thunderstorms, will come overnight tonight into Wednesday morning (30-50% chance).

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.