textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Little change made to the forecast in the short term, which includes historic, record-breaking March heat. Highs today are expected to climb well into the 90s, not only threatening daily records for today, but records for the entire month of March. See the CLIMATE section below for more information.

- This heat, combined with expected gusty SW winds, will result in critical fire weather conditions across the area today, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 11AM this morning through 4AM Sunday morning.

- Tonight into Sunday morning, a strong cold front pushing through the region will usher in an abrupt switch to gusty north winds...with gusts near 40 MPH not out of the question with the initial passage. Gusts exceeding 30 MPH will be possible through the daytime hours on Sunday...and colder air accompanying the front drops highs back into the 60s for most locations.

- The forecast Monday through Friday remains overall dry. There are a few spotty precipitation chances, but confidence at this point is low, so chances remain around 20 percent.

UPDATE

Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Currently...

Been another night of quiet conditions anchored across the forecast area...and outside of a few patches of upper level clouds, skies remain mostly clear. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing continued northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains, set up between high pressure centered over the Desert SW/northward ridging and broad troughing along the East Coast. The surface pattern early this morning remains a weak one across the area, keeping winds light/variable.

This weekend...

Overall, no significant changes were made to the forecast for this weekend, which remains dry. Satellite imagery showing that while upper level flow is currently northwesterly, models remain in good agreement showing shortwave disturbances moving onto/through the Pac NW will be breaking down that ridging with time today, with more zonal flow expected for Sunday.

For today, the primary forecast concern lies with fire weather conditions...and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire forecast area. The current light/variable winds in place will be gradually turning more south-southwesterly through the early morning hours, increasing in speed as sfc low pressure deepens over the High Plains and mixing potential increases under little cloud cover. Models have been pretty consistent showing that today is not a high- end day as far as winds go...but sustained speeds this afternoon around 15-20 MPH and gusts around 25-30 MPH will be possible. With the upper level ridging getting dampened through the day, models show the main thermal ridge axis shifting a touch east...and aided by increased mixing and a dry air mass, still looking at record breaking heat and high temperatures for today. Still looking at widespread mid 90s this afternoon, with the potential for at least a handful of spots to reach into the upper 90s...see the climate section below for more on records. Along with the increased mixing/dry air mass aiding with winds...dewpoints this afternoon are expected to drop into the 20s-30s...combined with temps in the 90s results in extremely low relative humidity values falling into the single digits to low teens. No change was made to the start time of the Red Flag Warning of 11AM this morning. This evening/tonight...relative humidity values look to be very slow to recover, with it potentially being near midnight before the entire forecast area is back above 20 percent. This slow recovery, combined with the abrupt switch in winds with the passing cold front, is why the Red Flag Warning end time isn't until 4AM Sunday morning. Any fires that may be ongoing into tonight will have this frontal boundary switching winds from the WSW to the north...and gusts exceeding 40 MPH will be possible.

During the daytime hours on Sunday...the gusty northerly winds accompanying this boundary will continue area-wide, especially through the first half of the day...then gradually tapering off from north to south through the afternoon. Along with the gusty winds, this front will usher in colder temperatures, with Sunday highs 30+ degrees cooler than today...topping out in the upper 50s north to mid-upper 60s south. Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid-upper 50s. Even with the cooler temperatures, there will be the potential for at least some spots of near-critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon hours.

Monday on...

For the new work week...the forecast remains an overall dry one. Models show generally zonal upper level flow through the week, and there is the potential for a few weak shortwave disturbances to push through the region...so there are a few low-end precipitation chances in the forecast. At this point, the chances are confined to the start and end of the week...during the day on Monday and then again Fri-Sat. Because there are still some differences between models with moisture availability and the track/timing of these disturbances, chances remain around 20 percent. As far as temperatures go, the first half of the week brings rebounding temperatures, with low-mid 60 Monday to upper 70s-mid 80s by Wednesday...then back down in the 50s by Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- Wow, are we getting into RARE TERRITORY temperature-wise on Saturday! Separate CLIMATE section below has more details, but not only are Grand Island/Hastings likely to exceed 90 degrees in March for the first time on record on Saturday, but could also reach the mid-90s the earliest in any year on record by at least 2-3 weeks!

- Unless/until we see a legitimate pattern change with at least semi-meaningful rain chances (MAYBE some hints of this a few days beyond this 7-day forecast a few days either side of April 1st?), fire weather will surely remain our paramount focus.

- As far as forecast changes go versus our previous overnight- issuance, probably the most noticeable/meaningful modifications were:

1) Northerly wind gusts associated with the late Sat night-early Sunday AM were cranked up a good 10+ MPH (and probably not enough). We are now calling for at least brief peak gusts at least 40-50 MPH, and raw/higher-res model data suggests at least near-severe gusts of 55+ MPH could be on the table. Obviously we not want ANY ACTIVE FIRES igniting prior to this frontal surge!

2) In tandem, wind speeds for Sunday daytime were likely raised at least 5 MPH from previous forecast, with much of the day now expected to feature sustained speeds at least 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40 MPH.

3) High temps were nudged slightly upward (no more than a few degrees) for nearly all days except Monday, which actually trended very slightly cooler than previous.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Fri. March 27): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 33O PM: Today is turning out very much as expected, albeit if anything probably very slightly warmer. Under only varying degrees of passing high cirrus (mostly sunny skies), high temps are on track to top out 86-92 degrees across most of our CWA, with Grand Island/Hastings already breaking date-specific records for March 20th (and at least making a run toward the March monthly record of 90).

Aloft in the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data clearly reveal an anomalous/expansive ridge of high pressure (500 millibar height around 595 decameters) spiraling over the Desert Southwest, and it's influence obviously extending here well into the central U.S. as we reside under northwesterly flow between it and a broad eastern U.S. trough. At the surface, although we are seeing occasional "sneaky" gusts of 20+ MPH, fortunately for the most part sustained, mainly northerly to northwesterly winds are near/below 10 MPH and gusts mainly under 15 MPH...holding critical fire weather concerns at bay.

- TONIGHT: As a surface high pressure axis translates through, very light breezes this evening will become established from more of a south-southwesterly direction post-midnight. In this very dry airmass, overnight lows temps have been dropping a little bit farther than anticipated, so nudged down lows very slightly, but still very mild for late-March with most areas mid-upper 40s except some lower 40s mainly far north/west.

- SATURDAY DAYTIME-EVENING: It's still hard for this forecast to believe, but we are officially forecasting high temps to reach 92-96 degrees across the vast majority of our CWA, and it's quite possible we might not be aiming quite warm enough. Again, unprecedented territory for March since our modern-day records began! Unfortunately, fire weather concerns will be increased compared to today, thanks to afternoon-evening winds sustained 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 25-30 MPH out of the south-southwest. Red Flag Warning in effect CWA-wide.

- SATURDAY LATE NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY AM: A powerful cold front comes crashing southward through our CWA, driven by an upper disturbance passing by to our north, the frontal passage marked by northerly gusts AT LEAST 40-50 MPH (and possibly 55+ MPH on at least a brief/localized basis). This front will enter our far northern CWA shortly after midnight, and clear our far southern counties around sunrise. With increasing confidence in these stronger winds, hit them a little harder in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). The "end time" of the Red Flag Warning (4 AM Sunday) is admittedly a bit of a compromise between steadily-rising overnight RH and this frontal passage, as the front will only be roughly halfway through our CWA by the current expiration time. Low temps aimed from low-mid 40s northwest to upper 40-low 50s southeast.

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: Although MUCH COOLER than Saturday, we are still aiming for above normal high temps ranging from near-60 far north to mid 60s far south. Of greater concern are the moderately-strong daytime winds, with sustained speeds 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40 MPH much of the day but gradually easing up mid-late afternoon as surface high pressure noses in from the north. Although we "technically" aren't forecasting RH to meet our 20% or lower critical threshold, many places could drop to around 25% and at least some consideration might need given to Warning issuance to account for the winds.

Sunday night, light winds gradually flip around to southerly. This will likely be the chilliest night of the next week, and lows were nudged down to 30-36 degrees most places.

- MONDAY-TUESDAY: Another warm-up gets underway, with highs on Monday similar to Sunday (mainly low-mid 60s), but then mainly low-mid 70s Tuesday as upper ridging again strengthens. Precipitation-wise, our official forecast is still dry, but there are subtle hints that mainly Monday could feature some spotty rain showers (perhaps a weak thunderstorm?). Something to keep an eye on but meaningful/widespread rain unlikely. As southerly winds turn breezy, we'll have to watch for at least spotty critical fire weather conditions (mainly in our extreme west for Monday).

- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Broad ridging remains the dominant influence aloft. Our forecast still remains dry, but especially ECMWF hints at some low chances for showers/weak convection at least near the fringes of our CWA, so something to watch. Wednesday currently looks to be the "peak" of next week's warm up (highs mainly low-mid 80s but possibly near-90 far west-southwest), with Thursday then a bit cooler with highs 60s-70s (will all depend on the speed/strength of cold frontal passage). Although far too early to be confident in details, we are technically forecasting some critical fire weather conditions especially Thursday. Our official forecast carries some very-low-confidence precip chances for Thursday night.

- FRIDAY: A full week out so subject to plenty of inherent uncertainy, but at least for now this looks like our overall-coolest day of the next week with highs "only" into the mid 50s most areas. However, based on latest "raw" and ensemble data, would not be surprised to see these values trend up in later forecasts (perhaps more into the 60s than 50s).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with just some passing high level clouds and good VSBYS.

Light and variable winds will continue during the overnight hours. While there could be some very marginal LLWS towards daybreak, all signals are that it should be too light to meet thresholds and be fairly transitory across the local area as a cold front approaches from the north late in the day. Surface winds should increase ahead of the cold front as the pressure gradient increases and deep mixing is realized...which should allow for a few wind gusts in excess of 25 KTS during the afternoon hours. Introduced a lighter wind group at 22/05Z...with the winds expected to increase significantly behind the cold front around 22/08-09Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for our entire forecast area, for a combination of very low afternoon and evening RH with moderately- strong south-southwesterly winds, followed by increasing RH but even stronger north winds late Saturday night- early Sunday morning behind a surging cold front. For the afternoon-evening hours, sustained south-southwest winds will average 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 25-30 MPH, while RH again bottoms out 5-15% in the presence of record- shattering high temperatures at least into the low-mid 90s (likely the hottest temperatures on record during the month of March for most of our area!). Late Saturday night into early morning (mainly 12-7 AM), a strong cold front will surge southward through our area, making any ongoing fires prone to an abrupt switch to northerly winds with gusts easily 40-50 MPH for at least a few hours (perhaps higher). Fortunately, RH will recover upward during this time, with values at least back up to 30-50% by around 4 AM Sunday and increasing further through mid-morning before falling again.

- SUNDAY: Despite most of our area being 30-35 degrees COOLER than Saturday, afternoon high temps will still be above-normal and reach the low-mid 60s most areas. At least for now, outright- critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated due to afternoon RH bottoming out "only" 25-30 percent across our area, but moderately-strong north winds will be a concern with sustained speeds through much of the day 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-40 MPH.

- MONDAY: Afternoon high temperatures are aimed fairly similar to Sunday (most places low-mid 60s), but winds will flip around to out of the south- southeast and should not be AS strong as Sunday's speeds, with sustained speeds mainly 10-20 MPH/gusts mainly 15-25 MPH. Minimum afternoon RH is currently forecast to hold up 20-25% most areas, but a few of our far western counties (mainly Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) could drop more so 15-20% and technically meet critical thresholds during the afternoon.

- TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Obviously the "finer details" regarding fire weather get increasingly uncertain as we get out this far in time. However, at least near-critical conditions appear likely in at least portions of our area each afternoon, with Thursday of overall- greatest concern for perhaps some outright-critical conditions.

-- NOTE: - NWS Hastings routinely defines CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 20-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (for 3+ hour duration).

- NWS Hastings routinely defines NEAR-CRITICAL fire weather as the overlap of BOTH 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts 15+MPH/20+ MPH

CLIMATE

Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

** RECORD-BREAKING/HISTORIC HEAT FOR THIS EARLY IN THE CALENDAR YEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY TODAY **

An incredible (even historic for March) stretch of heat continues through today, with both Grand Island/Hastings airports (the 2 NWS-maintained weather stations for which we issue official Record Event Reports/RERs) likely to experience on Saturday the HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH! In addition, we MIGHT even break records for earliest-annual occurrence of 91+ degrees by AT LEAST 2 WEEKS! Various details follow, organized by site:

-- GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI...temperature records date to 1896) - CURRENT DAILY RECORDS | LATEST FORECAST March 21 (Sat): 83 in 1988 | 96

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH: 90 degrees...occurred NINE times, most recently March 16, 2015

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS: 90 degrees......90 on March 16, 2015 91 degrees......91 on April 4, 1929 92 degrees......92 on April 12, 2022 93-94 degrees...94 on April 15, 2002 95-98 degrees...98 on April 20, 1902 99 degrees......99 on May 14, 1941 and 102 on May 14, 2013 100 degrees.....102 on May 14, 2013

-- HASTINGS, NE (HSI...temperature records date back to 1907) - CURRENT DAILY RECORDS | LATEST FORECAST March 21 (Sat): 87 in 1910 | 95

- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH: 90 degrees...March 23, 1910

- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS: 90 degrees......90 on March 23, 1910 91-92 degrees...92 on April 3, 1929 93-95 degrees...95 on April 15, 2002 96 degrees......96 on April 23, 1989 97-98 degrees...98 on May 6, 1916 99-100 degrees..100 on May 26, 2012

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ005>007-017>019.