textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy to widespread fog may develop tonight into Thursday morning.

- A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible Thursday evening/night.

- There is high uncertainty on high temperatures and placement of precipitation on Friday. Snow may impact portions of the area (mainly far north-northwest) as well as perhaps severe storms (mainly far east-southeast).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

An upper level trough is over the central Plains with another upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are light and variable. Skies across the area are gradually clearing from west to east. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to warm up into the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Light south to southeast winds will be present tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies. Fog may develop tonight due to the above mentioned conditions. Models are not in agreement on fog development so confidence is medium (around 50%). Patchy fog was added areawide to the grids tonight into Thursday morning but this may need to be upgraded to widespread dense fog with a possible advisory being issued.

Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will increase out of the southeast to south on Thursday. A lee surface trough will develop across eastern Colorado, western Nebraska, and western Kansas on Thursday in response to an approaching upper trough. Temperatures across the area are expected to warm up into the 60s and low 70s. Upper lift from the approaching upper trough as well as lift from an approaching cold front will move across the area Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will increase across the area with dewpoints reaching into the 50s across much of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop beginning Thursday evening/night. Not expecting much in the way of severe weather due to very low CAPE but moderate lapse rates and atmospheric lift and high wind shear could result in a few strong to marginally severe storms. Low temperatures Thursday night may range from the 30s to the 50s depending on the location of the cold front.

Rain and storms may continue into the day on Friday with the cold front moving into the area. There is much uncertainty with high temperatures on Friday due to the timing of the front. High temperatures on Friday may range from the 40s in the north to the 70s in the south. High temperatures may be reached for most areas during the morning hours depending on the timing of the front. There will also be precipitation development behind the front but there is uncertainty if much of the Hastings forecast area will be impacted by the precipitation. The most likely areas to experience precipitation will be northern and western areas. The factors that will determine precipitation across the area will be dependent upon the placement of the upper low as well as drier air moving into the area. If precipitation does move into the area behind the cold front, some of it may be in the form of snow due to temperatures possibly dropping near or below freezing. There is even a possibility of severe storms across mainly southeastern portions of the area on Friday depending on the placement of the front and upper low. Any remaining precipitation may linger into Friday night. Temperatures are expected to cool into the 20s and 30s Friday night behind the front.

A surface high will be present across the area on Saturday with high temperatures in the 50s. A warm up is expected Sunday into Monday with highs on Monday in the 70s. A cold front will bring temperatures into the 50s and 60s on Tuesday. Precipitation chances return to the area Monday night into Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 619 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): High confidence VFR ceiling/visibility through at least the first 9 hours, but anytime especially 09-18Z sub-VFR ceiling and/or visibility in very low stratus/fog appears to be a high probability. Although VFR is expected to return Thursday afternoon (especially visibility), ceiling could lower back to low-end VFR/possibly high-end MVFR by mid-late afternoon. At this time, precipitation appears unlikely through the period.

As for winds, they will not be much of an issue tonight into the first part of Thursday daytime...mainly sustained at-or-below 8KT out of a generally southerly direction. However, speeds ramp up pretty noticeably by late morning and especially into the afternoon out of the south-southeast...commonly sustained around 20KT/gusts 27-30KT.

- Ceiling/visibility details and uncertainty: Although sub-VFR ceiling and/or visibility is a "good bet" for much of the 09-18Z time frame, there is still some healthy uncertainty regarding the "exact" onset/dissipation of sub-VFR conditions and how bad they get. Leaning on the usually most reliable models/guidance at this time range, have taken a "best stab" with onset of low-VFR visibility and perhaps scattered very low stratus around 09Z. Then from 12-16Z went prevailing IFR ceiling/visibility and TEMPO LIFR ceiling/visibility (at least brief VLIFR in outright-dense fog cannot be totally ruled out, but feel that steadier breezes should keep things from "tanking" too far). By 17-18Z confidence is high in a return to VFR visibility for sure as fog mixed out, and probably VFR ceiling as well. However, even that is not a certainty, as at least an occasional ceiling as low as around 1,500 ft. could occur Thursday afternoon, with a pretty good chance of a low- VFR/high MVFR ceiling around 3,000-3,500 ft especially beyond 20-21Z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.