textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions remain in the forecast through Tuesday night and into most of the day Wednesday. Late in the day Wednesday, a surface dryline will provide a focus for thunderstorm development...models have this dryline located west of the forecast area. Questions lie with whether any of this activity pushes far enough east to impact the local area.

- The main upper low/trough axis pushes east onto the Plains for Thursday, with an accompanying surface cold front working its way through. This frontal boundary will be the focus for another round of thunderstorms...with models currently in decent agreement with the better potential being along/just off to the east of our eastern fringes.

- Fire weather concerns continue through the end of the work week...with the day overall greatest concern being on Thursday. Winds are strongest on Wednesday but a limited area of low relative humidity (20 percent or lower), Thursday has the more widespread low relative humidity (but still gusty winds).

- Periodic disturbances/precipitation chances continue on Friday through the upcoming weekend. Not a ton of confidence in the finer details at this point.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Currently...

Dry conditions and overall little in the way of cloud cover reign across the area this afternoon. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show west-northwesterly flow in place, with broad ridging over much of the CONUS, set up between a trough axis working its way toward the East Coast and a larger area of low pressure spinning just off the West Coast. At the surface, we are sitting between high pressure centered over the Midwest/Great lakes and a trough axis draped through the High Plains, keeping our winds southerly. Between the gusty conditions and low relative humidity values this afternoon, made no changes to the ongoing area-wide Red Flag Warning, which runs through 9PM this evening.

Tonight through Tuesday...

Overall, no notable changes made to the shorter term forecast period...which remains dry. Models are in good agreement showing the main upper level ridge axis currently off to our west shifting east onto the Plains during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night...pushed by the larger scale upper level low pressure system which will be working its way inland through the northern half of the West Coast. Not looking at any notable disturbances passing through the area, with skies remaining mostly clear-partly cloudy. A disturbance sliding east to the north of the forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning will push a weak surface frontal boundary south. Doesn't look to make it all the way through the area, stalling out roughly halfway around midday...bringing more easterly winds to northern portions of the area, and southerly across the south. As surface troughing gets more organized over the High Plains through the afternoon hours, that boundary lifts back north/gets washed out, with winds area-wide becoming south-southeasterly. Speeds remain on the lighter side for most...topping out around 15 MPH...the far SE corner of the area may be a bit more breezy, with better potential for gusts over 20 MPH. Though warm once again with highs in the 80s, the more southerly flow brings increasing dewpoints north...diminishing fire weather potential some. See Fire Weather section below for more.

Mid-week on through next weekend...

On Wednesday, models remain in pretty good agreement showing the main upper level low pressure system continuing to trek east, centered roughly over the ID/MT/WY border region by early evening. Ahead of this system, expecting a tightening pressure gradient to develop across the forecast area thanks to strengthening low pressure/troughing over the High Plains...resulting in stronger southerly winds. Sustained speeds of 20-30 MPH and gusts near 35-40 MPH will be possible through the day on Wednesday. High temperatures once again climb into the 80s...and the continued southerly flow pushes those 40s-50s dewpoints further north...keeping relative humidity values from falling off too much. Potential for some spots of near-critical fire weather conditions are there...mainly in NNW areas. See Fire Weather section below for more.

During the afternoon hours on Wednesday, models showing the development of a sharper sfc dryline, which looks to extend through western portions of NE-KS. Increasing lift out ahead of the main upper level system looks to swing SW-NE onto the Nrn Plains and portions of the Central Plains...sparking off thunderstorms along that sfc dryline off to our west. Confidence in the coverage of these storms isn't the highest at this point. Our late day-evening precipitation chances remain on the low side around 20 percent...some uncertainty with how far south things develop, getting further away from the better forcing aloft, and models show warmer mid-level temperatures as well. Some models keep our forecast area completely dry, others clip our far W-NW areas. IF storms can form closer to or move into our west, not out of the question some could be strong- marginally severe. Have some finer forecast details to iron out.

Wednesday night on into the day on Thursday, forecast precipitation chances are tied to the main upper low/trough axis itself...and while those chances aren't high, they are potentially too broad. Have 20-30 percent chances continuing Wed night-early Thu AM across much of the forecast area...could see those getting trimmed quite a bit if recent model trends hold. For the afternoon-evening hours Thursday, thunderstorm chances will be closely tied to the accompanying surface cold front...which most models currently show either right on our eastern edge or just outside our forecast area before things fire. Again...finer details to be ironed out. Thursday brings better potential for increased fire weather concerns...as that surface boundary ushers in drier dewpoints...and winds look to remain on the gusty side.

For the end of the week and this weekend...periodic precipitation chances remain in the forecast. Models showing upper level low pressure moving into central Canada for at least Fri-Sat, with the potential for shortwave disturbances to pass through the region. Confidence in the specifics isn't overly high...so chances remain in the 20-40 percent range. Sunday's precipitation chances are tied more to another disturbance moving inland through srn CA...and models are currently more optimistic with precip potential with this round. We'll see how things trend...it's only Monday. As far as temperatures go...following 70s-near 80 on Thursday, highs fall into the 60s-near 70 for Friday, then more 50s for the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period...any cloud cover passing through is expected to remain above 12kt feet. Gusty SSW winds will remain possible this afternoon-early evening...gusts near 25-30 MPH are not out of the question. The overnight hours will keep the chances for gusts near 20-25 MPH around, with no notable change in wind direction expected. Models continue to show the potential for LLWS at both sites, with those winds aloft looking to turn more westerly after midnight. After sunrise Tuesday, a surface frontal boundary sinking south into the terminal areas will bring the potential for more variable, but lighter winds...confidence in direction from 12-18Z is not high.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Tuesday...expecting another warm day with highs climbing into the 80s. While better moisture/higher dewpoints are inching their way back north, afternoon minimum relative humidity values are forecast to range from the low-mid teens in W-NW areas to the low-mid 30s in the SE. A weak surface boundary is expected to sink south into the area tonight-Tues AM...stalling out about halfway through the area late morning-midday. Through the afternoon this front lifts back north/washes out, with winds turning SSErly area-wide. The location/timing of the boundary helps keep wind speeds down for much of the area...SE portions of the area look to be on the breezy side. Current forecast has the winds topping out around 10-15 MPH in the areas where relative humidity values look to be the lowest...in the south where potential is better for gusty winds, is where relative humidity values may only drop to around 30 percent. Given this offset of winds/RH...no formal fire headlines were needed.

Wednesday brings gusty conditions area-wide...with southerly speeds of 20-30 MPH and gusts of 35-40 MPH possible. High temps again climb into the 80s...but models show that continued southerly flow has more of those 40s-50s dewpoints spread across the area...keeping relative humidity values up. Main potential for near-critical to perhaps briefly critical conditions looks to be focused roughly along and west of a Ord-Beaver City NE line.

Thursday...again gusty winds are expected, this time in differing directions as a surface trough axis/cold front work east across the region. While the widespread speeds similar to Wed are not expected for Thursday...winds will be turning to the WNW as the boundary passes. This will usher in drier dewpoints and the potential for much lower relative humidity values...current forecast has widespread values below 20 percent across the area (low teens in the west). This day has the next best chance for more widespread critical fire weather conditions...main area of uncertainty is our ESE edges, due to the timing of those lower dewpoints (may be much later in the afternoon).

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019.