textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms possible across the area during the late afternoon-late evening hours though uncertainty remains on how widespread storms will be. If storms do form, they could be severe capable of producing golf ball sized hail, 60mph wind gusts and an isolated tornado.

- Highs today in the 80s with southeast winds gusting 25-35mph.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances continue each day with highs generally in the 80s. A few storms on Sunday could be strong- severe.

UPDATE

Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A broken band of showers and storms will continue to lift northeast across the area this morning. Behind this band showers/storms are more scattered/isolated but are likewise gradually moving northeast. Showers/storm will end from the southwest to the northeast this morning, with any lingering shower/storm exiting the area by the mid- late morning hours.

Clearing skies will allow temperatures to climb into the 80s under the influence of upper level ridging. Breezy southeast winds are expected during the afternoon gusting 25-35mph. The southeasterly winds bring steady moisture advection over the area, keeping dewpoints in the 60s despite daytime mixing. This warm and humid airmass combined with steep mid-level lapse rates (8 C/Km) will result in CAPE values of 2000-3000+ J/Kg this afternoon. A dryline sharpens this afternoon, stretching from western Nebraska to central Kansas. 00z model guidance favors two distinct areas of thunderstorm development along the dryline. The first area of development will occur in the panhandle of Nebraska this afternoon with these storms moving east-northeast across northern Nebraska during the evening- early overnight hours. The second area of development is across central/southern Kansas. These storms would lift into north/northeast Kansas during the evening hours. Inbetween these two clusters, thunderstorm development is more uncertain as forcing is weaker. Scenarios range from a line of scattered thunderstorms impacting much of the area (00z Nam3k, RRFS) to the area remaining mostly-completely dry (00z HRRR, WRF-NSSL). This spread in model guidance brings a fair amount of uncertainty on today's severe weather potential. Regardless if storms do form in northwest KS/southwest NE, CAPE would support these storms quickly becoming severe. The biggest limiting factor on severe weather potential looks to be modest shear of 25-30kts which may limit just how strong storms are able to get. Still, the environment is supportive of storms producing golf ball sized hail, 60mph wind gusts and an isolated tornado (tornado threat depends on storms remaining discrete/isolated). This isolated to scattered band of storms will move northeast across the area during the evening-early overnight hours. While much of the area is outlined in the SPC day 1 slight risk for severe thunderstorms, current thinking is that southeastern portions of the area carry the highest chances to see a storm/severe storm.

Warm weather continues on Sunday with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Dry weather is expected during the morning to early afternoon hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances return during the late afternoon-evening hours as storms develop along the dryline in central-eastern Nebraska. Similar to today/Saturday if/when storms form, the environment would support these storms becoming strong- severe given CAPE values of 2000 J/Kg and shear of 25-30kts. Otherwise the forecast remains on track with above normal temperatures continuing through the forecast period. Thunderstorms are possible each day as weak disturbances move into the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

An upper level disturbance passed mainly south of the local area today. Scattered showers and a couple of isolated weak thunderstorms were observed on its northern edge, but these are mostly exiting the local area this afternoon. As this disturbance exits to the east, expect a few breaks in cloud cover through the remainder of the afternoon hours as the local area will be inbetween disturbances...with these breaks potentially allowing for a few additional showers or weak thunderstorms through early evening.

Late tonight...anticipate the next upper level wave to cross the local area from the southwest. Models have been keying in on this disturbance all day and gradually increasing their areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms late tonight...primarily after midnight. While there is ample instability to work with as the disturbance crosses the local area, shear is fairly weak and widespread strong/severe storms are not expected. That said, a few pulsy stronger storms will be possible late tonight, with the general focus for the best coverage anticipated across areas primarily across our Nebraska coverage area. While this disturbance should be exiting the local area around daybreak, some models are trying to hang on to some scattered convection through the mid-morning hours, so gradually tapered off pops from west to east through around 18Z.

The fairly active weather pattern of late will then continue Saturday night as the next upper level disturbance reaches the local area. Given strong instability and a weak CAP, little forcing will be needed to get some activity going by early evening, although once again, shear is weak. Given the very strong instability, could see some large hail with the strongest storms, and kept the wording for ping pong potential along with wind gusts up to 60 mph in the HWO.

Thereafter...a messy west southwesterly flow pattern aloft is forecast to continue across the plains through the end of next week with periodic upper level disturbances maintaining an unsettled weather pattern across the local area along with modestly above normal temperatures in the 80s (normal high temperatures are in the upper 70s/low 80s for late May/early June).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A thunderstorm is currently impacting KEAR, where gusts around 25kts are possible in the storm. The storm will continue to move northeast over the next couple of hours and impact KGRI as well. The storm could also reduce visibility and ceilings down to MVFR (IFR can't be completely ruled out at KEAR). Behind the current storm, scattered showers are possible for a couple of hours, but ending before sunrise.

00z Model guidance has trended further north with a developing MVFR-IFR stratus deck, keeping it well north of KEAR, and close to KGRI. Based on this, have kept KEAR/KGRI prevailing VFR, with MVFR ceilings possible in showers. If the stratus deck does end up further south, it is most likely to impact KGRI Skies clear/Scatter after sunrise with any SCT- BKN MVFR stratus ending. VFR conditions are then expected mid- morning through the end of the TAF period.

Southeasterly winds of 8-10kts are expected overnight. Winds increase during the mid-late morning hours, with sustained winds of 15-20kts and gusts of 25-30kts during the afternoon-early evening hours on Saturday. Around sunset, winds gradually decrease, though gusts of 20-25kts remain possible through the end of the TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.