textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy-to-moderately-windy today. South-southwest winds may gust near-to-over 40 MPH, mainly in areas north of I-80.

- Light rain/sprinkles possible (10-30%) with a cold front tonight. Best chances will be Tri-Cities N and E.

- Damaging winds (gusts 50-60+ MPH) becoming increasingly likely on Thursday. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the entire forecast area. The strong wind may lead to areas of blowing dust and reduced visibilities.

- Mostly dry and mild through the weekend and into next week. In fact, there are some indications for very warm temperatures on or around Christmas Day.

UPDATE

Issued at 500 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

***High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the entire forecast area on Thursday.***

Latest model guidance remains very consistent in bringing a potent low to mid level jet streak across the region on Thursday, behind a departing disturbance moving from the Plains into the Midwest. Favorable timing of the jet streak to coincide with daytime mixing (steeper low level lapse rates) and large scale subsidence supportive of efficient downward momentum transfer are factors that could combine to make this a rather significant wind event. Both ensemble and deterministic guidance remain in good agreement that gusts should quickly ramp up Thursday morning into the 50-60 MPH range...and still think N areas such as Ord could see some gusts around 65 MPH to perhaps even 70 MPH! Given continued model consistency and likelihood that the impacts will be most felt during the daytime hours, went ahead and coordinated with some surrounding offices to upgrade the existing High Wind Watch over to a High Wind Warning. The very strong winds alone will likely cause some significant impacts such as tree damage, power outages, and very difficult driving conditions for lightweight and high profile vehicles...but think there could also be some secondary impacts such as reduced visibility from blowing dust and at least elevated fire weather. Fortunately, for fire weather, decent cold air advection should keep a lid on temperatures and thus help to prevent the bottom falling out on afternoon RHs. The area to watch the most, however, will be W-SW of the Tri-Cities where RHs may still dip into the mid 20s - which when combined with the very strong wind - could still be enough seriously hamper fire suppression efforts for any new ignitions. Finally, with such dry conditions as of late, have opted to add some blowing dust to the forecast, as well. Always tough to anticipate just how much or how bad blowing dust will be, but again, the daytime timing and overall magnitude of gusts with recent dry weather suggest reduced visibilities on at least an isolated basis will be possible. It may help that the strong winds are Nrly and not SWrly as that's usually a "better"/more significant source for dust particles.

Otherwise, for today...expect another warm one with increasing Srly flow. Temperatures have been overachieving guidance as of late, so went ahead and blended in some NBM90th percentile to bump values up a couple/few degrees. May still not be warm enough for some spots, but given expected increase in cloud cover during the afternoon hours, didn't want to overcorrect too much. Today will be noticeably windier than past couple of days, esp. by this afternoon and esp. over roughly the NW half of the forecast area. Here, forecast soundings support gusts as high as 40-45 MPH, particularly in the 11AM-4PM time frame. Typically, when we see highs well into the 50s or even 60s in December with strong S-SW winds, we'd be worried about critical fire weather conditions. While the fire weather threat will certainly be elevated simply because of the strong winds and dry fuels, appears low relative humidity values will be a missing ingredient to a higher-end fire weather threat as latest guidance keeps afternoon minimum RH values generally around or above 25%. By no means want to imply today is a good day for fires, just pointing out that it's not a "high-end" setup.

For tonight...focus quickly turns to our next potent upper disturbance set to move through the region tonight into Thursday. System is currently bringing copious moisture to the Pacific NW, and would expect it to retain at least some of it's mid to high level Pacific moisture as it moves through the Plains. Thus, still thinking we'll be able to squeeze out some sprinkles or very light rain showers tonight. However, quick- moving nature of the system, combined with lack of appreciable low level moisture, leads me to think any rain accumulations will remain very light at only a trace to few hundredths.

The rest of the forecast continues to look rather mild/warm and mainly dry. In fact, some deterministic and ensemble data are now showing some of the warmest temperatures of the month coming on or around Christmas Day. Perhaps our gift from Mother Nature will be some record warm temperatures!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (90%) in VFR conditions through the period. Scattered high clouds will continue to move through the area today.

Relatively light northwest winds turn back to the southwest and increase for Wednesday. Gusts to 30kts are possible Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: VFR conditions likely today. Scattered, thin, high clouds this morning will give way to more widespread and thicker mid to high clouds towards late afternoon. Winds will become on the breezy side towards midday, and esp. this afternoon. Sustained SSW winds around 15-20kt, and gusts around 30-35kt, are expected. Confidence: High.

Tonight: By far, the greatest aviation impacts over the next 24 hours will focus on the overnight hours. First, around sunset, expect a strengthening low level jet to bring low level wind shear (LLWS) to both EAR and GRI. Seems probable that once the LLWS develops, it'll stick around most, if not all, of the overnight given continued strong low level flow. A cold front will move through around 05-06Z and result in a wind shift from SW/WSW to NW/NNW, and at least a 1-2 hr uptick in wind speeds/gusts. Along and ahead of the front may also feature some sprinkles or very light rain showers, so have tackled this with a short-duration PROB30 group. Despite the brief shot at some light rain showers, VFR conditions are likely to prevail with CIGs around 5-10K ft, or higher. Confidence: Medium.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ005>007-017>019.