textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm/severe weather potential tonight: Starting mainly after 9 PM and lasting through the rest of the overnight, our next round of at least scattered showers/thunderstorms will roll into our forecast area (CWA) mainly from the west-northwest, with a few storms perhaps strong to severe with a large hail/damaging wind threat.

- Ongoing flooding concerns mainly in the Mira Creek/community of North Loup area of southeastern Valley County: see separate "Hydrology" section below for more detail, but a Flood Warning continues for this small portion of our northern CWA.

- Still-highly-uncertain thunderstorm chances (and associated severe storm potential) Wed daytime-Thurs: Our "parade" of daily and/or nightly thunderstorm chances continue. However, upper level lift/forcing does not look quite as strong as tonight (or last night), casting some doubt on whether we'll see much activity at all beyond lingering storms Wed AM. At least for now though, SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of severe for our entire CWA Wed...and some northern counties Thurs.

- Additional storm chances beyond Thursday: Various/occasional rain/thunderstorm chances continue in this active weather pattern, but predictability in "finer details" will likely be "iffy" at best especially beyond 24 hours, so we need to take these chances mostly "one day at a time".

- Temperature overview next 7 days: an overall typical pattern for mid-late August...with highs most days in the 80s in our Nebraska zones...and more so low-mid 90s most days in Kansas...and lows most areas/most nights in the 60s. Wednesday currently looks like the overall coolest day (only upper 70s-low 80s north)...Friday looking overall-warmest with mid- upper 80s most Nebraska...low-mid 90s KS and Furnas County area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 446 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS: - No truly "notable" forecast changes worth discussing in detail, as we remain in a seasonably-warm and active weather pattern with various/intermittent rain/thunderstorm chances due to our region residing along the large-scale interface between large-scale upper high pressure/riding centered to our south- to-southwest...and broad troughing/low pressure centered to our north-to-northeast.

- In the "minor details" department, high temps have trended up slightly (at least a few degrees) for days such as Wednesday, Thursday and Monday as our tendency lately has been for highs to end up a bit warmer than forecasts from a few-to-several days out have called for.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. Aug. 25): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 345 PM: In the wake of convection within mainly the northeast half of our CWA Monday evening into early this morning that admittedly "overachieved" in intensity and areal coverage (significant wind damage/some hail damage in Ord area from intense supercell pre- midnight...a more widespread area of damaging winds post- midnight and even flooding rains in limited areas), fortunately the bulk of today (and especially this afternoon) has been "quiet/dry...as we reside "in between upper level disturbances/shortwave troughs (the next one approaching from WY per water vapor satellite/short term model data/analysis). At the surface, winds have trended to a mainly light (under 10 MPH) and variable direction regime.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: While MOST areas will remain dry/thunderstorm-free through at least 9-10 PM (except for some spotty sprinkles/light showers here or there), anytime after that is "fair game" for the development of more widespread (at least scattered) showers/thunderstorms as the aforementioned upper wave arrives from the northwest and sparks at least (mainly) slighly-elevated storms. Convective instability (CAPE) does not appear as high as last night, but deep-layer shear will remain seasonably-strong (at least 40-50KT), so at least a few strong to severe storms appear possible. Admittedly, higher-res models runs (such as from HRRR) from 24 hours ago did not verify well for last night, but again leaning on the latest consensus of HRRR/NAMNest, the first round of overnight convection should mainly focus into the southern half of our CWA, as convection rolls in from the west off the High Plains, while other storms developing along the low-level frontal zone/along the exit region of the low level jet (LLJ) MIGHT flirt with our eastern KS zones (Jewell/Mitchell), but SHOULD mainly affect areas near the KS/NE border slightly east of our CWA. Then, very late in the night (mainly 4-7 AM), high-res models are hinting at a secondary area of strong/severe storms developing into our northern CWA (north of I-80) out of northern NE.

Low temps tonight mainly 60s, as breezes remain fairly light but mainly trend more northerly.

- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-EVENING (pre-midnight): Honestly, our potentially biggest (and obviously first) concern could be right away in the morning mainly 7-10 AM, as the aforementioned potential cluster of strong/severe storms in our northern CWA rides into our eastern counties (somewhat similar to this morning, albeit later in the morning). Whether or not this unfolds, from mid-morning onward through late afternoon MOST of our CWA should remain dry as the upper wave passes by (similar to today). That being said, very intentionally left at least slight chances (20%) for spotty convection going for the majority of the CWA through the entire day and into the evening, in case any convection redevelops on the backside of departing activity, and/or spotty new (and potentially supercellular) development occurs during peak heating. Fortunately, high-res models show any late afternoon-evening severe storm potential being VERY isolated in the wake of departing upper forcing, but cannot argue with SPC maintaining a broad Marginal Risk...just in case.

Otherwise during the day Wednesday, high temps were nudged up slightly, but this still looks like the overall-coolest day of the next week most areas...ranging upper 70s-low 80s north...to mid-upper 80s in KS and Furnas County area. Breezes mainly under 10 MPH and northerly to easterly.

- WEDNESDAY LATE NIGHT (post-midnight): Fortunately, we should (in theory) catch a break from any late- night/early AM convection for a change, as most models are outright-dry and our official forecast follows suit. Depending on sky cover/clearing trends, this could be a night to watch for fog potential. Low temps mainly low-60s (one of our coolest nights upcoming).

- THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT: The daytime looks mainly dry, but the late afternoon into the overnight carries at least small rain/thunderstorm chances arrive with the next subtle disturbance dropping in from the north-northwest. Like Wednesday late afternoon-evening, coverage of storms looks very sparse, but at least for now SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for some of our northern-most counties. High temps are aimed roughly 5 degrees warmer than Wednesday...mid 80s most Nebraska counties...more so upper 80s-low 90s in KS and Furnas County area. Lows Thurs night not quite as cool...mainly back up into mid 60s.

- FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Although details are quite murky already at this time range, much the same continues with intermittent rain/storm chances. Friday the overall-warmest day of the next week for most of our CWA...mainly upper 80s Nebraska and low-mid 90s KS and Furnas County area. Perhaps very slightly cooler Saturday.

- SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Compared to preceding days, this time frame looks at least slightly-less-active (especially Mon-Tues), but mainly slight chances for showers/storms continue intermittently. Temps aimed similarly all 3 days...highs mainly mid 80s most of our Nebraska counties, and more so upper 80s-mid 90s near/south of the KS border.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): High confidence in VFR conditions (both ceiling and visibility)...along with rain/thunderstorm-free weather through at least these first 6-8 hours. However, anytime thereafter at least isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms (possibly a few stronger ones?) could occur mainly this evening-overnight, but possibly lingering into the first part of Wednesday daytime. During any storms, visibility could at least briefly reduce to at least MVFR, while in the wake of these storms there is at least a small chance for at least intermittent lower ceiling (most favoring MVFR). Aside from any possible convective outflow/enhancement, winds will not be a significant issue, with speed throughout the vast majority of the period prevailing at- or-below 7KT, as direction generally transitions from more southerly right away this afternoon, to more easterly and eventually northerly from later this afternoon through the end of the period.

- Ceiling/visibility and thunderstorm potential details: Starting with ceiling, although some scattered low-end VFR clouds could occur this afternoon, confidence is high that IF any sub-VFR ceiling were to occur...it would likely hold off until at least 09-10Z...in the wake of the majority of overnight shower/thunderstorm potential. However, confidence is lower than 50% that MVFR ceiling will actually occur, so have only "hinted" at it in TAFs with scattered MVFR-level clouds. Visibility-wise, any sub-VFR would mainly be associated with possible brief heavier downpours overnight into Wed AM, although a touch of light fog probably cannot be ruled out either a few hours either side of sunrise if the low-levels are not "mixed up" enough from convection.

Finally regarding shower/thunderstorm potential, confidence in "exact details" is running rather low, but based on general consensus of latest higher-res models have introduced basic PROB30 groups focused 03-09Z KEAR/04-10Z KGRI for the most favored windows for at least isolated/scattered activity passing through the area. If a thunderstorm occurs, at least small hail/gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Beyond the PROB30 groups, at least spotty rain shower (and possibly weak thunderstorm) potential could linger a few more hours, but for now have simply introduced a generic "vicinity shower" group.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 410 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Over the last 24 hours, most of (roughly) the northeast 1/2 of our CWA picked up at least 0.50-1.50" of rain, with more localized pockets of at least 2-3" (the majority of which fell in portions of Valley/Greeley/Howard/Nance/Merrick/northern Fillmore counties.

In MOST places, this rain fell with little-to-no flooding impacts. However, the MAIN EXCEPTION was within a very narrow (only 3-5 mile wide) stripe, oriented northwest to southeast from southeastern Valley County into southwestern Nance County...where at least 3-5" fell, causing mainly minor flooding of creeks/streams and likely several rural gravel/dirt roads. Of greatest concern is the Mira Creek basin in southeastern Valley County, where an automated gauge near North Loup has exceeded minor Flood Stage for the first time since 2019 (as of 345 PM, the stage was 9.61 feet and starting to level off...flood stage is 9.0 ft). While flooding of low lying areas near the creek is ongoing, concerns for more impactful flooding...including to homes along the creek on the north side of North Loup...would increase especially if it happens to "make a run" toward 11 feet (this is Moderate flood stage). Fortunately, our "best guess" at this point based on experience and the amount/orientation of rain within the basin (please note this gauge is not one for which we receive official forecasts from the Missouri Basin River Forecast Center/MBRFC)is that the creek should not rise beyond 10 ft...then begin a slow fall sometime later today or this evening. However, this will need monitored closely. The existing Flood Warning may very well need extended through tonight at least for the immediate Mira Creek/town of North Loup area. Unfortunately, there is an outside chance of at least a brief round of additional heavy rain overnight into Wednesday morning, which could obviously slow any fall in water levels that hopefully commences before then.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.