textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today under more cloud cover. Isolated shower/weak storm possible, mainly E of Hwy 281.

- Marginal Risks (level 1 of 5) for severe weather Monday and Tuesday, mainly later in the day and into the overnight. Damaging wind gusts look to be the primary threat.

- Hot Tuesday and Wednesday with highs topping out in the 90s to lower 100s. Heat indices may peak near 105F in spots.

- More seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the forecast along with off and on rain chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 455 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For today...and upper level low (clearly seen on WV imagery spinning in S KS) will traverse the Central Plains from SW to NE...becoming a bit negatively tilted as it does so. Have already seen some isolated to scattered showers and weak thunderstorms develop ahead of the low in E KS into SE NE. Some of this activity may try to rotate into at least E portions of the forecast area (i.e. Hwy 81 corridor) throughout the morning. Additional isolated development will also be possible with the daytime heating this afternoon. With the expected upper low track roughly along the I-35 corridor, think most of the isolated activity will remain along/E of Hwy 281. Lapse rates and shear will be weak, so not expecting any severe weather. However, can't rule out some non-supercell funnel clouds given the ambient atmospheric vorticity and decent 0-3km CAPE, but think even most of this should favor areas closer to the Missouri River and center of the upper low. Any isolated cells will also be capable of heavy downpours as the upper low pulls deep tropical air northward...but fortunately, the cells should be small and isolated enough to keep these downpours fairly brief for any one location. With abundant cloud cover today highs should be a few degrees cooler - generally in the 80s.

Expect dry and quiet conditions tonight under shortwave ridging and subsidence following the departure of the upper low.

Brunt of the daytime hours Monday should also be dry, though can't completely rule out some isolated elevated convection skirting far W/NW zones in the morning. Also...some guidance develops isolated sfc-based thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening along a weak cool front advancing from the NW...OR a subtle warm front/instability gradient lifting northward across central Nebraska. The afternoon development is VERY uncertain and conditional - owing to weak forcing/support aloft and model differences in placement of potential boundaries. Monday afternoon represents a "low probability, but potentially high impact" type of setup given magnitude of expected instability combined with steep mid level lapse rates and moderate shear. Most likely won't get development at all, but if there is, would expect sig hail.

More probable scenario for our next round of severe convection potential would be for an MCS to roll in from the W late Monday evening and into the overnight. As mentioned above...strong instability will already be in place, and most models develop a healthy LLJ during the late evening. SPC has placed a Slight Risk over the central High Plains where afternoon development is most likely amidst favorable upslope flow and possible weak upper disturbance. Same CAMs then grow this activity upscale over NE Colorado and W Nebraska during the early evening. Assuming that indeed happens, have no reason to believe it wouldn't be able to move right on into our area around/after sunset with primarily a damaging wind threat. As such, would not be surprised to see an upgrade to a Slight Risk in the Day 2 update to account for this scenario, if model trends persist. Monday has some signs of being a potentially "sneaky" severe weather day, depending on how some details line up...so keep an eye out for later forecast updates.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 427 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Short Term...Today through Sunday.

Following some late night thunderstorms across a few mainly northern and eastern portions of the area, observed spots of minor flooding and full/overflowing stream/river beds prompt the need to continue the Areal Flood warnings across a few of our southeastern Nebraska counties (Hamilton, York, Clay, Filmore, Nuckolls and Thayer) until at least tonight. For more information regarding the ongoing flooding, please refer to the hydrology section below.

Today we find ourselves underneath split flow as broad ridging covers the Northern Plains with a shortwave trough centered across the Southern Plains. The disturbance down south will be expected to take a northeastward track up to the Midwest through the first part of the new week. Outer precipitation bands from this system may slide by a few southeastern portions of the area this evening and tonight. A few weak (non-severe) storms will likely pop up between 4- 10PM across a few portions of north central Kansas and southeast Nebraska (areas mainly south and east of the Tri-Citoes). As the coverage of precipitation is expected to be more of a "hit or miss" and highly scattered rather than widespread in coverage, PoPs for any given location remain on the weaker side (10-30% for the southeastern third of the area, mainly locations southeast of a line from Geneva, NE to Red Cloud, NE to Plainville, KS).

For Sunday, a few scattered showers and weak storms will disperse across the eastern portion of the area (mainly areas east of HWY- 281) with up to 30-50% PoPs hovering across the eastern fringes of the area through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, temperatures tonight will cool down to the low to mid 60s with light winds remaining out of the southeast. Overcast skies filling in across the overnight hours will begin to clear out across the later morning to later afternoon hours Sunday (clouds making up the outer cirrus shield of the southeast passing disturbance). Highs for sunday, despite the partial cloud coverage, should be able to return to the low to mid 80s Sunday afternoon.

Long Term...Monday and Beyond

A northwest located trough will gradually push out the Northern Plains ridge, later retuning the mid to upper level flow to southwesterlies by Monday. A quick passing shortwave disturbance on Monday may throw a few more scattered storms into the area (25-50%). The potential of severe weather could return to a limited (southwest) portion of the area Monday evening/night as increasing instability from warming temperatures could add some extra intensity to a few storms. The rest of the forecast period (through next Saturday) continues to bring at least a limited afternoon to nighttime pop up storm chance to at least a portion of the area. These daily chances come from increasing uncertainty on how the upper-level pattern will unfold (when a few minor disturbances embedded within the approaching trough will pass through the Region).

Temperatures will be heating up into the middle of the week as highs transition from the 80s on Monday to the 90s and low 100s on Tuesday and Wednesday (Heat indices possibly as high as 105 degrees). This warm up will best be assisted by clearing skies and steady southerly winds winding up Tuesday afternoon. A frontal passage on Wednesday should place a cap on the warming trend, though the 80s to low 90s look to be possible each day for the of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: IFR stratus will continue for a few more hours this morning before rising to MVFR around 15-16Z. Could see a brief light shower at GRI, but best chances remain to the E/NE. Clouds will break up towards midday and return to VFR, but this could support an iso/brief thundershower during the early afternoon. Clouds will clear out from W to E late this afternoon. Wind will be out of the SE at 9-14kt. Confidence: Medium.

Tonight: Mainly clear and quiet. Could see a bit of shallow ground fog/haze towards dawn Mon AM given light SErly low level wind...but not enough of a signal to include sub-VFR VSBYs in a prevailing group this far out.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 427 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Flood water across several of our counties will be slow to recede within the hardest hit areas. The flooding in some areas is expected to persist through tonight and possibly into Sunday morning.

The basins most likely to experience continued flooding into tonight include: West Fork of the Big Blue River (Downstream of Stockham) Beaver Creek (Giltner through York County) Lincoln Creek (Hamilton and York Counties) School Creek downstream of Sutton Turkey Creek in Fillmore County Little and Big Sandy Creek (Corner of Clay, Fillmore, Nuckolls, Thayer Counties)

Any additional rainfall this evening/tonight is expected to be isolated and non-impactful to our ongoing flooding.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.