textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A few isolated rain showers will continue through this evening but with limited 20-30% coverage. Those that do see rainfall through tonight will likely only see a trace to 0.10 hundredths.

- The best rain chances (50-70%) now appear to be during the day on Tuesday and then pressing east of our area by Tuesday night. Most areas should expect less than 0.25", but a few areas south of the Tri-Cities could see up to around 0.50". No severe weather, at best a few lightning strikes are possible.

- Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days of the week (upper 70s - lower 80s), then cooler/fall like Friday into next weekend (upper 60s - lower 70s).

- The next decent rain chance (30-50%) will be with the next cold front Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Tonight through Tuesday...

A big upper level trough will be situated over the western United States the next few days. We are seeing a few isolated elevated rain showers across our area this afternoon north of what has become a stalled out surface front. These light showers will remain rather isolated through tonight. Those that see any precipitation through tonight will likely only see light amounts generally less than 0.10". This front is expected to lift north as a warm front on Tuesday and will be the focal point for better chances of rainfall (>50%) on Tuesday. However, this is by no means an all day rainfall, but rather more scattered hit and miss showers coming and going through the day. More recent HRRR and NAM models favor our southern zones (south of I-80) for the best chance at seeing rainfall amounts over 0.25", but probably still less than 0.50" for most areas.

Wednesday and Thursday...

Overall pattern becomes more amplified with upper level ridging strengthening across the Missouri Valley while upper trough slides east into the Wyoming and Utah. Southerly winds ahead of the next upper storm system will push highs back into the upper 70s to lower 80s in what will be our warmest two days of the week ahead.

We will see increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as the western storm system pushes into the high plains. However, the upper low is most likely to take a more northeasterly track into the northern plains with the best chance at precipitation from western Nebraska into the Dakotas.

Friday Into Next Weekend...

A strong cold front will come through Thursday night into Friday morning making for a cooler more fall like period, but still rather pleasant with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will be more chilly and may dip into the upper 30s in some of our northern locations by next weekend. Dry weather is expected behind the cold front next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 711 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): Although no worse than low-end VFR should prevail these first 10-11 hours this evening-overnight, especially the final 12-14 hours will feature deteriorating conditions as ceiling lowers to MVFR/possible IFR...accompanied by intermittent light rain showers (non-zero chance for a few weak thunderstorms, but overall unlikely and not included in TAFs). Visibility likely remains VFR at least the vast majority of the period, although any steadier showers could briefly promote MVFR (not included in TAFs). Winds will not be a major factor, with sustained speeds no more than 8-12KT the vast majority of the time as direction prevails easterly through much of the period before turning more southeasterly Tuesday afternoon (some gusts could reach 15-17KT mainly Wednesday afternoon).

- Additional ceiling/visibility/precipitation details: Through most of this evening-overnight, no worse than low-end VFR ceiling (mainly 3,500-5,000 ft. AGL) will prevail at both sites, with both sites also prone to occasional/intermittent light rain showers. However, by roughly 10Z KEAR/11Z KGRI, odds increasingly-favor MVFR ceiling (high confidence), which could then later drop to IFR at least intermittently anytime after roughly 18Z KEAR/19Z KGRI (medium confidence). As for visibility, no worse than low-end VFR (6SM) should prevail the vast majority of the time, but any steadier showers could easily cause at least brief MVFR. Speaking of rain showers, the overall- greatest likelihood and areal coverage appears to focus between 10-19Z, during which time prevailing -SHRA is indicated. However, coverage both before/after those hours should be more spotty and thus is addressed with PROB30 groups.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.