textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will be warm and humid, with heat index values in the 100-104 degree range for the southeastern half of the area.

- Severe thunderstorms are expected for portions of the area late this afternoon into tonight. The primary risk area is near and northeast of a line from Broken Bow to Grand Island to Geneva, but there is at least some risk for severe storms across the entire outlook area. The main timeframe of concern is 5pm to 1am.

- Some strong to severe storms are possible again Saturday, but the overall risk is lower than today and looks to be more favorable in portions of Kansas.

UPDATE

Issued at 443 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Overall, the forecast for the near-term has not changed significantly. In-fact the 06Z Day 1 severe outlook from SPC was nearly completely unchanged from the previous Day 2 forecast. That said, there is still quite a bit of uncertainy on EXACTLY how things will play out this afternoon through tonight.

Currently, (as of 5am) convection continues to bubble near/west of a line from MCK to LXN. This is expected to slowly move east-northeast through the morning, eventually dissipating by mid to late morning. This is not expected to be severe, but locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out, especially with any decaying updrafts.

This afternoon, temperatures climb into the 90s for most of the area, with heat index values over 100 degrees for the southeastern half of the area (similar to previous days). South- southeast wind will provide some relief, with gusts 20-25 MPH.

Late this afternoon, CAMs are in general agreement that convection will initiate in central to northeastern Nebraska in a very unstable environment (MLCAPE possibly over 4000 J/kg). Initially, this would favor supercells, eventually merging into one or more line segments moving east-southeast. An second line of storms is then expected to develop later in the evening and move across the area in response to stronger upper level forcing and an increasing LLJ. The primary threats will be large hail (especially with initial supercells) and damaging winds (especially with any bowing line segments). The tornado threat doesn't appear to be particularly concerning given the "messy" storm mode, but it cannot be completely ruled out thanks to semi-favorable low level shear. Additionally, the potential for multiple rounds of rainfall may lead to localized/minor flooding issues. Convection may linger will into the overnight, but should generally lose strength in the early morning hours of Saturday (July 4th). Through all of this, the main threat area is across portions of Nebraska, and some parts of Kansas and southwest Nebraska may miss out entirely.

The forecast for July 4th remains a little more murky and will be dependent on how things play out today. CAMs suggest that the initial area of development may focus near I-70 Saturday evening, but we will have to watch for additional storms moving in from the northwest later in the evening into the overnight hours.

Beyond Saturday, the forecast does look a bit quieter. Sunday and Monday are favored to remain mostly dry. Better chances (30-50%) for rain and t-storms return to the forecast Tuesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Today and tonight...

An upper trough is over most of the western part of the country and also includes the northern and central Plains. An upper ridge is over most of the eastern part of the country. High temperatures today are expected to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 60s to low/mid 70s. The showers from this morning have moved off to the east. Storms are expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening in western Kansas and may move northeastward into north central Kansas and south central Nebraska this evening. The 12z HRRR is showing storms weakening as they move into the forecast area later this evening (around 10 or 11 PM). The 12z NAM12 is showing storms staying away from the area this evening through most of the overnight period. The 12z NAMNST is showing storms moving in from the west around 7 or 8 PM and progressing eastward until midnight or 1 AM. The 12z GFS is showing storms developing by/around 7 PM and expanding in coverage by 10 PM. CAPE values by this evening will be around 3,500 to 5,000+ J/kg, and 0 to 6 km wind shear will be around 25 to 30 knots. Mid- level lapse rates will generally be around 7 to 8 degrees C/km. There is some uncertainty on when, and if, storms will impact the area this evening into tonight. If they do, they could become strong to severe given the above mentioned conditions. The vast majority of the forecast area is in either a marginal (level 1 out of 5) or a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk of severe weather per the SPC Day 1 outlook. Hail up to around quarter to half dollar size and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH are possible.

Friday and Friday night...

Temperatures on Friday are expected to warm up a little from those today with highs in the upper 80s to near 100 degrees. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the low 60s to low 70s. The whole forecast area is in either a marginal, slight, or enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk of severe storms Friday into Friday night. By evening, CAPE values of around 4,000 to 5,000+ are expected areawide. 0 to 6 km wind shear values of around 30 to 40 knots, and mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8.5 degrees C/km are expected. A shortwave (or multiple shortwaves) is/are expected to move over/near the area which will aid in atmospheric lift. These conditions will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the area Friday evening into Friday night. Large hail up to around golf ball size, wind gusts up to around 70 MPH, and an isolated tornado will be possible. The area of greatest risk will generally be along and north of I-80. The timing of these storms is expected around 6 PM to 3 AM.

Saturday and Saturday night (4th of July)...

The forecast models are trending further south with the rain and storms for Saturday but are still not quite in agreement where to place the precipitation. The area with the highest chances (around 60%) of showers and storms Saturday evening is north central Kansas into far southern Nebraska. Areas north of the Tri-Cities are least likely to experience rain and storms (around a 30% to 40% chance). The Tri-Cities area is probably the area of greatest uncertainty (around a 40% to 60% chance). A lot of what happens Saturday will depend on what happens on Friday. The timing and placement of rain and storms will also depend on the timing and placement of a weak cold front which will move into the area on Saturday. Given fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and lapse rates, strong to severe storms may develop. The highest risk would be across north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. High temperatures on Saturday will generally range from the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the low to upper 60s.

Sunday through Wednesday...

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures will then be on a slight warming trend through Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Low temperatures during this time will generally be in the 60s to low 70s. There are low chances (15% to around 20%) of showers and thunderstorms from Monday evening through Wednesday afternoon. Severe potential on these storms is unknown at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The main concern in this TAF period is the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

Fist off, thunderstorms currently west of the terminals are anticipated to continue to develop eastward toward EAR/GRI early this morning. This activity should be largely non-severe, but a localized gusty winds cannot be ruled out.

This activity should clear the area Friday morning, and dry conditions are expected to prevail through early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may develop as early as 21-22Z, with increasing coverage by 00-02Z Saturday. These storms have better potential to be severe (hail, wind, and heavy rain).

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.