textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity looks to push east into the area this evening/tonight. Not out of the question that a few storms early-mid evening could be on the strong to marginally severe side...mainly across far WNW portions of the area. Gusts around 60 MPH and quarter size hail would be the main threats.

- Tuesday and Wednesday continue to have chances for at least scattered showers/storms...severe weather is not anticipated. Sitting on the north side of the main surface cold front, more clouds/precip chances, will bring cooler highs for both days...with 70s for most locations.

- Forecast for Thursday on through next weekend is drier...with highs climbing back well into the 90s by Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Currently Through Tonight...

Been a warmer, gusty start to the work week across the entire forecast area...and while the majority are sitting with little/no cloud cover, satellite imagery showing a fairly thick batch of wildfire smoke passing through, keeping skies hazy. This smoke has remain in the upper levels, with no area automated sites showing any reductions in visibility, a trend that should continue the rest of the day. Looking aloft, data showing high pressure centered over AZ/NM...with a dampened ridge axis extending northeastward through the Central Plains toward the Great Lakes. Troughing/low pressure along the East Coast is keeping this ridging from sliding east...while low pressure over north-central Canada and southward extending troughing into the NNWrn CONUS is what has diminished the ridge strength. Satellite imagery showing a shortwave disturbance making its way east across the Nrn Rockies...which will aid in storm development with time this afternoon. At the surface, the gusty south-southeasterly winds are being driven by a tightened pressure gradient in place...set up between high pressure over much of the Midwest and an approaching cold front. This front currently sits from the southern NE panhandle up into central SD...with winds across the forecast area gusting around 25-30 MPH. Temps are a touch warmer...with 3PM obs sitting in the mid 80s to mid 90s.

At least scattered activity is expected to continue developing along that surface frontal boundary the rest of this afternoon...with the main question going into this evening/tonight continuing to lie with how much of an impact there is on our forecast area. Models continue to the better potential being several hours off yet, and kept an mention of chances out through 00Z (some models say it could be closer to 02-03Z). Through the overnight hours...there still some differences with just how much coverage there is, but general idea is that things end up staying on the more scattered side. Lift is aided by an increasing southwesterly LLJ, but the better upper level forcing remains off to our north. Storm chances have other things working against there being greater coverage with time...loss of daytime heating. models showing warm mid- level temps/capping remaining in place, and the further east things push, should push out of the area of better instability. Still not out of the question that a few storms early on could be on the strong to marginally severe side...and our WNW portions remain in the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area. Gusts near 60 MPH and quarter size hail would be the primary hazards. Didn't get cute with PoPs through the overnight hours...pretty much anywhere could see at least an isolated shower/storm, so kept the 20 percent chances going CWA-wide.

The main surface cold front will continue sinking south with time overnight...by 12Z Tuesday, models are in pretty good agreement showing the front draped across the southeastern quarter or so of the forecast area. May end up with a gradient in lows tonight ranging from the upper 50s in the far NW to around 70 in the SE.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Overall, no notable changes in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday...with continued precipitation chances and cooler temperatures still expected. Models remain in generally good agreement in the broader-scale. showing the upper level pattern remaining zonal across the Central Plains. Although on the weaker side, models showing the potential for enough lift lingering around to keep chances for at least spotty precipitation around for much of the day. Still some differences and uncertainty with the overall coverage...and whether there is a bit stronger of a wave/more precip coverage as we get more into the evening/overnight hours into Wed AM. NBM have some widespread, higher PoPs between 06-18Z Wed (60-70 percent)...the models supporting that timing show the better potential mainly across portions of south central NE. Still looking like the potential for severe weather is low, better instability should be becoming more focused to our south. With the increased cloud cover, precipitation chances, and continued northeasterly winds behind the cold front...high temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s-low 80s on Tuesday to low-mid 70s for Wednesday.

Thursday and on...

For the end of this week on into the start of next week...again not much as far as notable changes go in the forecast. Models continue to show the upper level pattern across the region in varying degrees of west-northwesterly flow. The main ridge tries to build back north over the western CONUS...but additional larger-scale disturbances mainly moving across Canada prevent it from amplifying too much. Precipitation chances Thursday through the weekend are spotty at best...and confidence in those chances are certainly not high at this point. After the cooler temps Tue-Wed, temperatures look to bounce back well into the 90s for next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A cold front will bring a shift in winds at the terminals overnight along with the chance for a few thunderstorms this evening followed by some light rain showers and breezy north winds during the daytime hours Tuesday.

Expect VFR conditions to prevail for the next several hours ahead of this cold front...with gusty southerly winds relaxing by 04/01-04/02Z. Light and variable winds will then precede the cold front, with northerly winds settling in behind the front by around 04/08Z. The best shot for a -TSRA will be between 04/03-04/08Z...with MVFR stratus then possibly filling in behind the front along with a few light rain showers at times through 04/15Z. CIGS should improve thereafter, with gusty north winds to around 22-25 KTS during the afternoon hours along with a VCSH or -SHRA continuing throughout the day.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.