textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will move through the area during the day today, resulting in a wide range in highs from north to south. This front may serve as the focus for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms between 5-9PM in the extreme SE CWA.

- Off and on showers and thunderstorms will redevelop near and north of the stalled front on Thursday, and continue into Thursday night.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms during the afternoon and evening, mainly S/SE of the Tri- Cities. This is also where the highest chances (50-80%) for widespread appreciable moisture (>0.50") will focus.

- An active upper level pattern will remain in place Friday into early next week and bring periodic rain chances, though some of the latest trends are not quite as hopeful for significant moisture as a few days ago.

UPDATE

Issued at 445 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Main story for today will be a cold frontal passage from NW to SE throughout the daytime hours. This front is currently analyzed from the Panhandle northeastward into SD and generally remains on track to expectations from 24 hours ago. Timing of the front through the Tri-Cites looks to be right around midday. Winds will turn the the NW/N behind the front and usher in some cooler air, though still not bad for this time of year, with some of the "coolness" offset by plentiful sunshine. Highs should top out for areas around the Tri Cities and to the N and W in the 60s. Further SE, highs will be warmer in the 70s to even near 80F towards I-70, aided by a very warm start to the morning amidst strong southerly winds.

Front should clear all but extreme SE portions of the forecast area by early this evening. Front may remain over or just close enough to areas like Osborne and Beloit up towards Concordia and Hebron to keep at least a low chance going for a couple/few storms in the 5-9PM time frame. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of severe for this potential. Strong winds (owing to steep low level lapse rates and deeply mixed boundary layer (inverted-V profiles) and perhaps some low-end large hail (aided by strong upper level winds lengthening deep layer hodographs) will be the main threats. Overall moisture looks to be a significant limiting factor (afternoon dew points only in the 40s) to a more robust severe threat. It's also possible storms could develop in the counties just outside our CWA.

Low end shower/storm chances (20-40%) continue overnight into Thursday AM for the possibility of isolated activity developing on nose of veering low level jet and within strong warm air advection. This area of lift will also coincide with a stalled out baroclinic zone from the aforementioned cold front. However, once again, appears deep layer moisture will be a limiting factor to coverage and overall organization - thus the limited PoPs.

Despite the continuous PoPs for the second half of the week, don't want to give the impression it's a "washout" by any means. Think we'll see a decent dry break late Thu AM into early aftn, and again for a good chunk of the daytime hours Friday. Expect the most widespread shower/storm activity to come Thu aftn into overnight along the still stalled out baroclinic zone as some deeper moisture finally arrives from the S. SPC has maintained another Marginal Risk for severe weather for this round, as well, with the main focus being along and S of the state line. This is also where the best chances (50-80%) for the most appreciable moisture (0.5" or more of rain) will be Thu night into Fri AM.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Currently...

It was a dreary start to the day across the forecast area, with widespread low level stratus. This cloud cover has diminished from south to north through the day, with only far northern areas still sitting under mostly cloudy skies. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data show generally zonal flow across the local area, sitting between one shortwave in the NM/TX area and another moving into the Nrn Rockies. At the surface...the day started out with easterly winds across the area, which have turned more south- southeasterly through the day...thanks to high pressure shifting further east over the Great Lakes, while a trough axis remains over the High Plains. The plentiful cloud cover and gradual northward diminishing trend made for a difficult temperature forecast...but overall looks like highs will work out fairly well, with 40s in the far north to low 70s in the south.

Wednesday...

Main feature of interest in the very short-term period will be that above mentioned disturbance working its way into the Nrn Rockies. Models are in good agreement showing this system sliding generally east along the US/Canada border tonight on through Wednesday, with the center of the low roughly over the western MN/Canada border by evening. The main impact with this system will be with the accompanying surface frontal boundary...which will be pushed south through the area during the daytime hours. Really hasn't been any notable change in the models as far as timing goes...showing the front roughly in the Tri-Cities area around 18Z, the either right along the SE corner of the forecast area or just outside by late afternoon-evening. The daytime passage makes for a tricky temperature forecast...the gradient from NW-SE could end up tighter than the low 60s-mid 70s currently forecast. This front is expected to be the focus for at least scattered thunderstorm development...so its late-day location is another forecast concern. Even if the timing ends up on the slower side, it looks to be the far SE corner with chances for thunderstorms...a quicker passage means we could get missed altogether. It looks like it'll be a close call. Thunderstorms that develop would have the potential to be on the strong-severe side...SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area continues to include most of our north central KS area. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary threat. Through the overnight hours, that front looks to stall out as it loses its upper level push...but it's not out of the question we could have linger elevated precipitation north of the front with models showing an increased low-level jet. Best chances would remain near/south of the NE/KS state line.

Rest of this week into early next week...

Overall not any significant changes made to the forecast, with models continuing to show the potential for a more active pattern through the mid-longer term periods. Models showing periodic shortwave disturbance moving through the Plains...both in the more zonal flow to end the work week, and the southwesterly flow expected to develop this weekend-early next week as a larger trough axis move onto and in from the West Coast. Right now the highest chances are in the Thu-Sun time frame...but hard to have a ton of confidence in timing/location of these disturbance and chances the further out in time you go.

On Thursday, models show the stalled surface boundary pushing back north...with some uncertainty just how far north it gets before the next upper level disturbance/sfc cold front moves in from the NW. This boundary will again be the focus for thunderstorm development late in the day, and on into the evening/overnight hours thanks a stronger LLJ. Overall best chances for storms and any strong-severe storms looks to be across southern areas...and the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area continues to clip SSErn areas. Hail/wind would again be the primary threats.

As far as temperatures go...Thursday is another lower-confidence forecast...with some models showing iso-sct precip around through much of the day...forecast has right around 60 in the far NE to mid 70s in the SSW. Friday is currently the overall coolest day with highs in the 50s-low 60s...with 70s returning for the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: VFR. UEX VAD continues to sample a 55-60kt SWrly low level jet (LLJ) in place over the terminals, which is leading to stout low level wind shear (LLWS) - despite relatively breezy conditions at the surface. The LLJ will mix out around 13-14Z, which will likely lead to at least a couple hour surge in SSW sfc wind gusts, particularly for GRI. A cold front will move through the terminals between 15-17Z, causing winds to veer to SW (and briefly weaken immediately along the front) then increase out of the NW/N. Wind speeds/gusts will gradually ease during the late afternoon and early evening.

Tonight: Continued VFR conditions with decreasing winds through the evening, becoming light and variable overnight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.