textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- An upper level disturbance pushing mainly east along the US/Canada border will push a surface front south through the region during the day on Wednesday.

- Along with making for a tricky temperature forecast for Wednesday, this front will be the focus for late day/evening thunderstorm activity...some of which could be strong to marginally severe.

- Current timing of the front is expected to push to the far SE corner of the forecast area by late after Wednesday...potentially push it (and storm chances) outside of the area altogether.

- A more active upper level pattern developing through the rest of this week into early next week will bring the potential for periodic upper level disturbances/precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Currently...

It was a dreary start to the day across the forecast area, with widespread low level stratus. This cloud cover has diminished from south to north through the day, with only far northern areas still sitting under mostly cloudy skies. Looking aloft...upper air and satellite data show generally zonal flow across the local area, sitting between one shortwave in the NM/TX area and another moving into the Nrn Rockies. At the surface...the day started out with easterly winds across the area, which have turned more south- southeasterly through the day...thanks to high pressure shifting further east over the Great Lakes, while a trough axis remains over the High Plains. The plentiful cloud cover and gradual northward diminishing trend made for a difficult temperature forecast...but overall looks like highs will work out fairly well, with 40s in the far north to low 70s in the south.

Wednesday...

Main feature of interest in the very short-term period will be that above mentioned disturbance working its way into the Nrn Rockies. Models are in good agreement showing this system sliding generally east along the US/Canada border tonight on through Wednesday, with the center of the low roughly over the western MN/Canada border by evening. The main impact with this system will be with the accompanying surface frontal boundary...which will be pushed south through the area during the daytime hours. Really hasn't been any notable change in the models as far as timing goes...showing the front roughly in the Tri-Cities area around 18Z, the either right along the SE corner of the forecast area or just outside by late afternoon-evening. The daytime passage makes for a tricky temperature forecast...the gradient from NW-SE could end up tighter than the low 60s-mid 70s currently forecast. This front is expected to be the focus for at least scattered thunderstorm development...so its late-day location is another forecast concern. Even if the timing ends up on the slower side, it looks to be the far SE corner with chances for thunderstorms...a quicker passage means we could get missed altogether. It looks like it'll be a close call. Thunderstorms that develop would have the potential to be on the strong-severe side...SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area continues to include most of our north central KS area. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary threat. Through the overnight hours, that front looks to stall out as it loses its upper level push...but it's not out of the question we could have linger elevated precipitation north of the front with models showing an increased low-level jet. Best chances would remain near/south of the NE/KS state line.

Rest of this week into early next week...

Overall not any significant changes made to the forecast, with models continuing to show the potential for a more active pattern through the mid-longer term periods. Models showing periodic shortwave disturbance moving through the Plains...both in the more zonal flow to end the work week, and the southwesterly flow expected to develop this weekend-early next week as a larger trough axis move onto and in from the West Coast. Right now the highest chances are in the Thu-Sun time frame...but hard to have a ton of confidence in timing/location of these disturbance and chances the further out in time you go.

On Thursday, models show the stalled surface boundary pushing back north...with some uncertainty just how far north it gets before the next upper level disturbance/sfc cold front moves in from the NW. This boundary will again be the focus for thunderstorm development late in the day, and on into the evening/overnight hours thanks a stronger LLJ. Overall best chances for storms and any strong-severe storms looks to be across southern areas...and the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area continues to clip SSErn areas. Hail/wind would again be the primary threats.

As far as temperatures go...Thursday is another lower-confidence forecast...with some models showing iso-sct precip around through much of the day...forecast has right around 60 in the far NE to mid 70s in the SSW. Friday is currently the overall coolest day with highs in the 50s-low 60s...with 70s returning for the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with only off/on scattered high clouds. Despite continued south winds overnight, LLWS is expected, with 50kt+ winds not far off the surface.

Winds turn to the north as a cold front moves through around midday Wednesday.

Any thunderstorm development should remain south of GRI/EAR on Wednesday afternoon/evening.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.