textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers/storms continue across the area this morning. Localized flooding from Wednesday's storms continue into the mid- morning hours.

- Scattered storms possible during the afternoon-evening hours. A few of these storms could be strong-marginally severe capable of producing hail to quarter size and wind gusts around 60mph.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the area during the late afternoon-evening hours on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and localized flooding is possible with these storms.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the end of the forecast period with scattered chances for storms continuing into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Update...

A decaying complex of thunderstorms has departed the area, with Scattered showers ongoing across much of the area. Earlier day thunderstorms produced widespread rainfall mainly along and south of I-80, with localized areas receiving 2-4 inches and as much as 5" (Osborne). While flooding in these areas is expected to linger into the mid-morning hours in part due to lingering rain, the overall lighter rate of rainfall early this morning should not significantly add on to any ongoing (or soon to be ongoing) flooding.

Two areas of rain are expected to impact the area through the morning hours. The first is the aforementioned rain across mainly central/southern portions of the area. Models have struggled to depict this area of rain, bringing some uncertainty how long the ongoing rain will linger. Given current trends, this area of rain will likely linger through the early morning hours. The second area of storms, a broken line across north central-northeast Nebraska, is beginning to move into northwestern portions of the area. The coverage of this band looks to be more limited, mainly impacting northwestern portions of the area.

HREF members support an MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) developing over western Kansas early this morning. This MCV brings another round of scattered to widespread thunderstorms to south/southwestern portions of the area around sunrise. Storms continue to move east across the area this morning, mainly impacting areas along/south of I-80. The amount of instability in place this afternoon is uncertain given the expected cloud coverage from showers/storms. If some sunshine is able to break through the clouds, or storms are are less widespread than currently forecast, then 1000-2000 J/Kg of CAPE should develop over the area. In this weekly capped environment, storms redevelop during the mid-late afternoon hours across southeastern portions of the area. Shear remains fairly weak, but a few of the storms could become strong to marginally severe. Storms, regardless of coverage/strength, are favored to depart east/southeastern portions of the area this evening, with dry weather expected Thursday night-Friday morning.

Temperatures climb into the mid 80s to low 90s on Friday. A low sits over the area Friday afternoon with an associated triple point setting up over some portion of the forecast area. The exact location of this will impact storm potential on Friday. Regardless, CAPE values of 3000+ J/Kg are likely to develop over the area, resulting in a conditionally unstable environment. The cap is likely to erode sometime during the late afternoon-evening resulting in explosive thunderstorm development. Shear will once again be a limiting factor, though 25-30kts of shear would be supportive of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. Storms exit the area during the overnight hours as a cold front moves through. Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track with above normal temperatures expected through the end of the forecast period, with scattered chances for showers/storms this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1124 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Many of the details of the next few days' weather will be rooted in subtleties that develop on a day-to-day basis. There will be some features that focus thunderstorm development a bit more readily, and there will be some severe potential and heavy rain potential in several regimes in the coming days, depending on your location and the evolution of subtle features that develop.

Current Synopsis and Anticipated Large Scale Evolution:

A decaying convective complex just clipped the far northern counties in our central NE coverage area this morning as the outflow dropped south of Ord and a few showers developed to the north. That outflow boundary is now slowly retreating back north and is expected to exit the forecast area but linger in north central NE into the afternoon hours, growing increasingly diffuse over time. South of the outflow, southerly winds and mostly sunny skies have allowed temperatures to warm nicely, but at mid day, we're beginning to see the influence of a moisture flow off the Gulf, into the High Plains, and then northeast into this region. Water Vapor imagery indicates a pretty unimpressive overall mid level flow pattern, but with a well- developed short wave trough meandering northward out of far northeast New Mexico. Ahead of this trough, the moisture profile is fairly deep with some showers and thunderstorms in the moisture plume. Surface dewpoints are climbing into the 70s in central KS so there is a fair amount of instability developing, and expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop northeastward this afternoon around time of max heating. There is also a north-south oriented pseudo-dryline in western KS with some enhanced convergence which is also expected to act as a focus for afternoon convection today. Finally, another area of surface low pressure in South Dakota has a cool front extending southwest from it, and will stall out from the Nebraska Panhandle into central SD later today, acting as another convergence region and focusing mechanism for thunderstorm development this afternoon.

As we progress into tomorrow and Friday, we'll see a combination of potential outflow boundaries from convective complex development to our north, along with ill-defined frontal boundaries left over from existing systems as the New Mexico short wave slowly drifts northeast across the area...but these will become better defined fronts as we progress into Friday and a short wave trough with an attendant mid-level speed maximum moves across northern Nebraska. Slight ridging develops for Saturday before we transition into a more dominant western CONUS trough and southwesterly flow aloft with embedded short wave troughs by Sunday into next week.

Daily Hazard Potential: For today, we've already got scattered thunderstorms developing as the advancing moisture plume and weak mid level cooling from the trough overspread an unstable boundary layer. At the current time, it appears there could be one or two storms that become strong enough to produce isolated severe hail or downbursts, but the overall severe threat this afternoon is on the low end. Mid level lapse rates are unimpressive, and deep layer wind shear is unimpressive as well, so overall storm organization is unlikely.

As the evening progresses, we'll want to watch the two areas of more widespread convective development expected along the weak dryline/front in western KS and along the cold front to our northwest. Expect more linear development in these areas in the presence of slightly more favorable vertical wind fields. This would favor conglomeration of cold pools into one or two convective complexes. The most recent CAM guidance favors one system tracking east across the forecast area, particularly favoring areas near/south of I-80, in the mid to late evening hours, with another tracking southeast out of SD and perhaps clipping northern parts of the forecast area late evening to early morning. There is a good amount of most unstable CAPE present in advance of these systems, and the 0-2 km shear vector may actually favor some elements of forward propagation where the cold pool is deep and strong enough to continue forcing parcels through the inversion. But again the lapse rates above that inversion are not especially steep which may limit overall intensity with eastward progression. All told, see some potential for pockets of damaging wind this evening into early morning, depending just how aggressive these storm complexes can get.

On Thursday, we'll be closely monitoring the location of any outflow boundaries and the role they map play in enhancing convective development, as well as the potential for some training of storms with heavy rain near boundaries. With the compact short wave trough moving directly over the local forecast area, scattered showers and thunderstorms look like a good bet off and on during the day...so another question will be if we're able to develop pockets of stronger instability through any areas of sunshine during the day. If instability can develop, the combination of vertical vorticity, favorable low level wind profiles, and low LCLs suggest we would have to be on the lookout for a few rotating storms on the eastern flank of the center of the trough. This is a low-end potential at the moment, but one to watch. Otherwise, there are some favorable heavy rain parameters in place, and any areas of training storms could end up with some isolated flooding potential.

Friday is a day to watch as the mid and upper flow intensifies a bit from the west while a short wave trough axis crosses the region late in the day and a surface low pressure trough extends from southwest to northeast through the area. Mid level lapse rates will steepen dramatically with the westerly mid-level flow, and naturally the deep layer shear profile becomes much more favorable for storm organization as well. Thus anticipate a broken line of supercell thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the surface trough axis where boundary layer convergence is maximized. Storm motion would favor an east southeast trajectory early on, with the low level shear becoming pretty sharply enhanced as the LLJ intensifies. So this could end up being a "magic hour" scenario when a few of the more isolated storms may be able to produce very large hail or tornadoes before cold pools congeal and push out to the east. Storm mode will be key, and the previous evening's convection could play quite a role in how it all plays out. Friday is definitely a day to watch though.

Saturday looks warm and mostly dry. Sunday again features a meandering short wave trough with quite a bit of moisture present in the region. This would seem to be another favored day for scattered thunderstorms, although with limited instability and shear probably wouldn't be particularly intense. Then severe potential amps up again by mid to late week with the western trough taking better shape and sending impulses into the Central/Northern Plains at times.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions favored through TAF period, though low chance for MVFR conditions can't be completely ruled out in thunderstorms. Scattered showers will continue at KGRI/KEAR over the next few hours, with scattered thunderstorm chances arriving during the early morning hours and persisting through sunrise. Afterwards, a break in rain is favored through the mid-morning hours, though a fair amount of spread in model guidance brings some uncertainty. Another round of showers/storms is possible during the late morning-late afternoon hours, though overall chances favor locations southeast of KGRI/KEAR. Given at least some model guidance indicating thunderstorm potential during this period, included a PROB30 group. A stronger thunderstorm could briefly reduce ceilings or visibility below VFR Thursday afternoon, though overall uncertainty on shower/storm potential prevented a mention of MVFR conditions at this time. Rain chances come to an end by the evening hours, with dry weather favored through the end of the TAF Period.

Southerly winds of 8-12kts are expected throughout most of the TAF period, with winds becoming light and variable around the end of the TAF period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.