textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A light wintry mix of snow and/or sleet could impact areas mainly southeast of the Tri-cities this afternoon. This could result in slippery road conditions across the impacted areas.

- Light freezing drizzle will be possible across areas primarily east of Highway 281 this evening through around noon Monday. This could lead to a light glaze of ice across impacted roadways, although any accumulation remains questionable.

- Light rain showers will impact much of the local area Tuesday, with an isolated thunderstorm possible during the evening and overnight hours. Precipitation totals of 0.10" to 0.25" are anticipated over this period.

- While a few showers may linger into Wednesday, much of the area will be dry as temperatures return to above normal levels. Temperatures will peak Thursday afternoon (widespread 70s), which combined with breezy south winds may result in an elevated fire risk.

- Additional (small) chances for some light precip return to the local area Thursday night through Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Lots of mid/high level cloud cover streamed across the local area overnight with a bank of lower clouds creeping in from the north and east early this morning. Temperatures so far have held mostly in the middle 20s, and will likely struggle to climb 10-15 degrees across the area by this afternoon thanks to ample cloud cover and continued easterly flow.

As temperatures climb to near freezing later today, expect a weak upper level disturbance to help induce an area of light precip as it crosses Kansas during the afternoon hours. While models have gone back and forth on how far north this area of light snow/sleet will extend, the latest runs once again heavily favor southeastern portions of the area, and continued to highlight a wintry mix of precip across this area later today. While some slippery roads cannot be completely ruled out, impacts are expected to remain low.

Behind this disturbance, models indicate drier air working in aloft with a strong signal for some drizzle potential overnight into Monday morning, which if realized, would be freezing drizzle. This could result in a light glaze of ice across areas mainly east of Highway 281 to start the day Monday, but confidence is low enough to continue without a winter weather advisory at this time given very spotty QPF in models. As temperatures warm during the afternoon hours, any remaining drizzle should not cause additional problems.

Additional showers, and possibly even a thunderstorm, will impact the local area Tuesday/Tuesday night as the airmass modifies, which should result in most locations receiving at least a bit of liquid precip (0.10"-0.25") when all is said and done. Temperatures will then return to above normal levels by Wednesday afternoon, peaking on Thursday in the 70s!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:

- In terms of 7-day forecast changes since our previous (early- AM) issuance, they are mainly highlighted by: 1) precip chances (PoPs) have been lowered enough for most of Wednesday-Thursday that our official forecast is now largely dry. 2) Due in part to #1, high temps have trended up several degrees for Wed-Thurs, but have also come up for Friday as well.

- Unfortunately, what has NOT changed is considerable/above- average FORECAST UNCERTAINY, both in the: 1) Shorter term: Both Sunday-Monday could feature pesky rounds of light wintry precip...OR nothing much at all).

2) Longer term: Primarily longer-term models (ECMWF/GFS) show widely varying solutions for Friday-Saturday, mainly due to big timing/placement differences in our next larger-scale upper trough (thus why PoPs are currently at no higher than 50% during this time).

Taking the latest deterministic runs "literally" (obviously FAR too soon to do this...but just to illustrate the big uncertainty: The latest ECMWF suggests a legitimate thunderstorm/convective risk for Friday and is dry Saturday...while the latest GFS is dry Friday but conversely offers rain showers for Saturday. Obviously a LOT to sort out here!

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sat. March 7): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM: Just to get this out there right off the top, it appears high temps this afternoon are going to end up a good 5-10+ degrees cooler than our initial early-AM forecast. Despite wall-to-wall sunshine, the steady northeasterly breezes and weak low- level cold air advection are clearly "winning out". As a result, highs will only reach (at best) the upper 40s in our north...to low- mid 50s central...to mainly upper 50s-low 60s in our south- southwest (except warmest mid 60s mainly within Furnas/Rooks/Osborne counties).

Speaking of these north-northeasterly breezes, if anything they are slightly stronger than expected, with sustained speeds commonly 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 MPH (localized higher). In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirms broad northwesterly flow over our local Central Plains region, as we remain well southwest of a shortwave trough passing through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: High confidence that it stays dry, with only increasing (and mainly high level) clouds out ahead of the next low-amplitude wave approaching from the west. There could be some lower stratus cloud that invade mainly our northern counties between midnight-sunrise, but this of lower probability than the more- certain high cloud increase. At the surface, breezes will remain steady out of the east-northeast (sustained 10-15 MPH with some gusts up to around 20 MPH). As for low temps, the steady breezes/increasing clouds ensure that readings will not "tank", but due in part to today ending up cooler-than-forecast, certainly did not want to warm up lows much. As a result, kept them fairly close to previous forecast, with mainly low 20s Nebraska and mid-upper 20s Kansas (along with Furnas County area).

- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT (possible round of snow/sleet?): Even at we get closer to "zero hour", Sunday's forecast honestly remains a legitimate "pain". For example, while the latest ECMWF has trended all but dry, various higher-res models (HRRR/NAMNest) and even the recent 18Z NAM are fairly suggestive that especially the afternoon hours will feature a rapid development of a varied mix of showery precip types over especially the southeast quadrant of our CWA (those areas mainly near/east of Hwy 281 and near/south of I-80). Given that forecast soundings hover near the 0C line in the low-mid levels, this showery precip (should it develop) could be anything from snow, to sleet, to perhaps even a little freezing rain or "plain rain" (especially in KS where surface temps should be warmest). Although things certainly have the potential to still trend worse, our latest forecast officially "downplays" things a bit, with PoPs/Chances no higher than 20-40%, and any snow/sleet accumulation under one-half inch. Due to this current "low end" expectation in terms of wintry precip likelihood and amounts/impacts, we cannot justify a proactive Winter Weather Advisory at this time (but this bears watching). On top of everything, and although not reflected in our official forecast or the latest SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, there could even be a few rumbles of thunder given up to a few hundred J/kg of elevated instability/CAPE. As for daytime high temps, they were not changed much...still calling for mainly mid 30s east to upper 30s-low 40s west.

For around sunset and beyond, any possible MEASURABLE wintry mix should have vacated our CWA to the east. However, especially the latest NAM (which is often over-agressiveness with low level saturation) suggests that especially our far eastern zones could see a low chance for freezing drizzle. Low temps changed little...mainly low-mid 20s.

- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT (possibly freezing drizzle issues?): Unfortunately, uncertainty in the likelihood/magnitude of any wintry precip continues. However, it is starting to look more likely that the vast majority of any precipitation that does occur will be in the form of fin-droplet DRIZZLE or FREEZING DRIZZLE (as opposed to steadier heavier showers). Any freezing drizzle threat would mainly occur right away in the morning, before surface temps warm enough to change any possible light icing over to "plain"/non-freezing drizzle by late morning. Getting into the very late night (post-midnight) hours, some models (including ECMWF) suggest that an area of showers/weak thunderstorms could flare up very near our far southeastern CWA, but better chances currently appear to focus slightly east, and this is not in our official forecast.

Temp-wise, highs similar to previous (low 40s east to upper 40s west), with Mon night lows a bit warmer than the previous few nights (mainly upper 20s-mid 30s).

- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT (more, mainly rain chances): Although confidence is high that it will mainly be of the lighter and non-frozen variety, various chances for rain/rain showers continue as a slow-moving shortwave trough traverses the Central Plains. Again, while not in the official forecast most areas, a few weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. High temps currently aimed around 50 degrees most areas.

- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (mostly dry): Although rain showers could return for Thursday night (mainly per ECWMF), the majority of these 48 hours have trended drier with no mentionable precip chances, as we reside "in between" systems. High temps have trended up several degrees...now mainly mid 50s-low 60s Wed...and upper 60s-low 70s Thursday.

- FRIDAY-SATURDAY (rain chances, but high uncertainty): Mostly copying/pasting what was already touched on above... Primarily longer-term models (ECMWF/GFS) show widely varying solutions, mainly due to big timing/placement differences in our next larger-scale upper trough (thus why PoPs are currently at no higher than 50% during this time).

Taking the latest deterministic runs "literally" (obviously FAR too soon to do this...but just to illustrate the big uncertainty: The latest ECMWF suggests a legitimate thunderstorm/convective risk for Friday (possibly even severe!) and is dry Saturday...while the latest GFS is dry Friday but conversely offers rain showers for Saturday. Obviously a LOT to sort out here, and it's far too soon to "buy into" any one scenario. Temperature-wise, also somewhat low-confidence, but for now we are calling for highs mainly mid 50s-low 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR CIGS are working their way across the region this morning and are already impacting KGRI. Expect these low CIGS to continue to spread west over the next few hours, impacting KEAR by 01/13Z. While there could be some modest improvement during the afternoon hours to MVFR levels, confidence is low as the expanse of cloud cover on satellite is difficult to see. Either way, CIGS will again return to IFR levels this evening...and the terminals will then likely remain in low stratus for multiple days. While there could be some light drizzle late tonight, for the time being only introduced MVFR VSBYs with some BR as the focus of any drizzle should be east of both terminals.

CLIMATE

Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

If you thought it has been unusually warm so far this winter, you are right! With February now in the books, the traditional winter months of December-January-February (DJF) ended as the 5th warmest DJF in Hastings (33.6 degrees) and 6th warmest DJF in Grand Island (33.2 degrees) since record keeping began (based on average temperature).

In both cases, this was the warmest winter locally since the winter of 1991-1992, when the average temperature was 34.6 degrees and 35.1 degrees, respectively. The winter of 1991-1992 remains the warmest winter on record at both sites.

In comparison to normal, the average temperatures at both sites was just over 5 degrees above average for the 3 month period.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.