textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms and threat for heavy rain should gradually diminish this morning.

- Dry and warm conditions are expected for the rest of the day with highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lingering moisture and recent rainfall will make it feel muggy.

- An upper low moving north out of the Srn Plains will bring precip chances back for Sunday, with the best chances currently focused across the eastern half of the area.

- Periodic upper level disturbances keep storm chances in the forecast as we get into the new work week. Tuesday and Wednesday looking to be the overall-hottest days of the week, with forecast highs well into the 90s to low 100s. Heat indices may reach as high as ~105F.

UPDATE

Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Have cancelled the Flood Watch as additional heavy rain is not expected. Flash Flood Warnings and Advisories have been converted to Aerial Flood Warnings where necessary. The most significant flooding will tend to focus along the Beaver Creek, West Fork of the Big Blue River, Sandy Creek, and Little Blue Rivers...and the creeks and tributaries that feed into them.

UPDATE

Issued at 444 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Been a busy last 12 hours or so with multiple clusters of thunderstorms for some locations, esp. for areas along and E of Hwy 281. Have had just enough shear and instability for sporadic large hail and gusty winds...but by far the greater impact has been heavy rain and high rainfall rates. Have several flood products out right now that will likely need to be consolidated and converted to one or two Areal Flood Warnings. Based on automated gauges and radar estimates, appears we've had a broad swath of 2-4" of new rainfall, with pockets of even higher amounts around 4-5", maybe even close to 6". Would classify this event as very poorly modeled, even as little as 12-24 hours prior to storm initiation as the majority of models that did have heavy precip were way too far to the E with it. At any rate, the conceptual signs were there with a broad, moderately strong LLJ interacting with deep, copious moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.7") and little to no capping. The combination of high PWATs and unseasonably weak shear had this event feeling more like mid to late summer than early June.

Fortunately, the LLJ responsible for the lift is steadily weakening and veering per latest KUEX VAD. Still have a few heavier cores hanging tough in Clay and Nuckolls Counties, but expect these to continue to decline. Could see a very isolated shower/storm persist as late as 7-8AM, but the vast majority of the day and the area will be dry for the daytime and evening hours. Temperatures will warm up quite a bit this afternoon, as highs climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s - warmest W third. Expect mainly dry conditions overnight with lows in the 60s.

A broad, weak upper trough - currently spinning over W TX - will gradually open up and eject NEward on Sun...becoming negatively tilted as it does so. This wave doesn't look to have a real strong focus with it, but rather it will promote broad lift amidst a continued deeply moist environment. This suggests some "popcorn style" showers and storms will become possible during the afternoon/peak heating hours. Our chances will be highest E of Hwy 281, with even higher chances just off to the E of Hwy 81 into eastern NE/KS. Don't expect severe weather with these storms, but they will be capable of brief heavy downpours. Fortunately, upscale growth into organized clusters (such as last night) appears quite unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Currently through tonight...

Conditions have been quiet across the forecast area this morning on into the early afternoon hours...have had a few sprinkles clip far northern portions, set up on the southern edge of a subtle wave, that scattered activity is largely over northeastern NE on its way into IA. Looking at upper air and satellite data...flow across the region remains generally zonal and on the weaker side. Broader picture...one area of low pressure continues working its way south toward the Pac NW Coast, with another spinning near the west TX/Mexico border...while high pressure remains set up over the SErn CONUS. Had a fair bit of fog/low level stratus earlier this morning across areas between I-80 and the NE/KS state line...which largely diminished by mid-morning, but still have some isolated- scattered CU lingering through that area this afternoon. The overall sfc pattern across the area is on the weaker side with most winds around 10-15 MPH...that lingering CU also helps highlight where one boundary lies, roughly around the HWY 6-state line area, where more dewpoints in the upper 60s-near 70 are...with easterly winds to the north and more southerly winds to the south. Temps here at 2pm are mainly in the upper 70s through that central area...with more mid 80s to the north and mid 80s-near 90 further south.

Main question getting into later today and tonight remains with thunderstorm chances and where things end up focusing. Even with a very unstable airmass in place (SPC meso page showing MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 j/kg already into southern portions of the forecast area)...models have been pretty consistent showing little to nothing developing prior to 00Z...just lacking better upper level forcing. Don't think it's out of the question that heating itself/increased lapse rates could help to spark activity later this afternoon...it just would likely be pretty isolated in nature. Anything that would develop obviously has no shortage of instability to work with...but deeper layer shear is on the lower side, sitting around 30kts. Models continue to point more into the evening hours with the development of thunderstorms...potential ramping up as the low level jet increases. The main focus of this activity along the nose of the LLJ looks to be across northern portions of the forecast area...hi- res models showing areas along/north of I-80 having the better chances through the overnight hours. Any storms that develop would have the potential for mainly large hail/damaging winds, heavy rainfall would be a concern as well...PWAT values approach 1.5" in eastern portions, helping with activity being efficient rain-makers, upper level flow being on the weaker side and potentially running parallel to the line/cluster of storms could lead to slow movement/training over the same area. If things do end up developing across our northern areas...at least over the past 72 hrs the heaviest rain was focused further south, mainly over areas south of a JYR-MCK line. Still some uncertainty with just how much activity impacts our forecast area, as many models focus things more just off to our east. What activity does impact our area will gradually push east through the overnight hours...current forecast is dry between 09-12Z, but confidence is not overly high in that timing.

This weekend...

The forecast for the daytime-evening hours on Saturday remains dry...though some uncertainty remains in the early morning hours, will be dependent on how much activity develops/moves through this evening-later tonight. Precipitation chances do return to the forecast later Saturday night, continuing on into Sunday. Models remain in pretty good agreement looking at the upper level pattern...larger scale troughing pushes further inland from the West Coast, while that low pressure system currently over west TX/Mex is working its way north. By 00Z Sunday, models show that upper low only having moved into roughly the OK/TX panhandle area...with a little more spread through the overnight hours and into Sunday. How that upper low tracks NNE will drive precipitation chances for Sunday...some models track it off to our east, keeping the better chances also focused to our east...others track it more through our forecast area, which would give us better chances. At this point the forecast is trended more toward that eastern track, keeping the 30- 50 percent chances along/east of HWY 281...but we'll see how things trend in upcoming model runs. Forecast high temperatures on Saturday are in the upper 80s-low 90s...with potentially breezy SSE winds as sfc low pressure/troughing deepens along the High Plains. Better cloud cover/precip potential for Sunday drops forecast highs back into the low-mid 80s for most of the area...with the breezy SSE winds returning.

Next week...

Upper level flow as we get into the new work week is show by current models to be southwesterly...as that western CONUS troughing remains, reinforced by another system moving inland. There will be the potential for periodic shortwave disturbances to get ejected out ahead of the main trough...keeping those intermittent storm chances in the forecast. Uncertainty increases later in the week with the pattern...some models show a return of more zonal flow as low pressure deepens over central Canada, others keep things more southwesterly. As far as temperatures go, models showing the potential for hotter conditions mainly in the Tue-Wed timeframe, with forecast highs on Wed currently in the mid 90s-low 100s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR expected through the period with little in the way of significant cloud cover below 5K ft.

Winds will generally be SE-S throughout the period and a bit on the breezy side this afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.