textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire weather is a primary hazard to focus on this afternoon, and potentially tomorrow in north central Kansas. Thursday will also be warm, dry, and windy, and could be another day for fire concerns.

- There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday evening (20-50% with best chances far southeast and far northwest), but it currently looks more likely that most of the area remains dry, and any precipitation will likely be less than a tenth of an inch.

- The next strong storm system arrives late Friday into early Saturday. Expect thunderstorms on the leading edge of this storm with snow on the back side of the storm. The current most likely storm track suggests the best chance for thunderstorms is east of HWY 281, and the greatest chance for rain changing to snow is north of the Platte River.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A discussion on fire-weather-specific information can be found in the Fire section below.

Surface low pressure located near Kearney at mid day will gradually develop northeast toward Albion through this afternoon. Warm and dry air will overspread the entire area this afternoon. One thing to watch this afternoon will be a low-end potential for isolated convection to develop in the wraparound moisture on the west side of the surface low. We most likely should stay precipitation free, but there's about a 10% chance for development in far northern counties of the forecast area around 5 PM, and a better chance farther north.

As we get into the overnight hours and the low pressure moves off to the northeast, cooler and moisture air will push south into many of our Nebraska counties while new low pressure develops in northwest KS. This front will likely stall in the vicinity of the KS/NE border and hang out in that area on Tuesday. Expect a good pool of low level moisture immediately on the cool side of the front while areas to the south remain warm and in a dry airmass. While a ribbon of instability is likely to develop near/north of the front, there will be a very strong cap in place and surface based storms are not expected. As we get a bit deeper into the evening, there is some potential for increased convergence along and just north of the boundary to provide a semi-favorable environment for breaking the cap, but would require significant moisture transport and pooling through a pretty good depth and into the warm layer aloft. As of now, forecast soundings are not favorable for thunderstorm development, and if it does happen would stand a better chance with eastward extent. Farther north, closer to the core of a short wave trough with weaker cap and stronger forcing, there is a better chance for showers or a few thunderstorms to develop and skirt across our northern counties, but truthfully that precip potential is greater farther to the north. A few wraparound showers could linger into Wednesday, depending on how quickly the system moves off to the east. Overall, this system does not look particularly rainy for south central NE or north central KS.

After a period of mid level ridging on Thursday, there is good model agreement with high probability for a strong storm system tracking from Colorado across KS/NE late Friday into Saturday. This has the look (and the temperature profile) of a classic spring system with thunderstorms ahead of the low, snow on the northwest quadrant, and plenty of wind for everyone. Any severe storm potential will be highly dependent upon timing of the storm system, and current indications suggest a higher likelihood of severe storms east of the local forecast area, so we'll be watching potential for the system to slow down and pull better moisture back to the west. The snow potential will also be highly dependent upon the storm track, and right now the greatest potential appears to be north of the local forecast area. Where it does snow, it will be accompanied by strong winds, and so this too is worth very closely monitoring as it could make for hazardous travel conditions Friday night into Saturday morning. After this system, should see a period of slightly cooler conditions with calmer weather overall...at least into the first couple days of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Have VFR conditions in for this TAF period...though there is some uncertainty with that as we approach sunrise on into at least the first half of the day, as models show the potential for some lower level clouds to spread into the area. Most guidance keeps things VFR, but will have to monitor trends closely. Light/variable winds continue for a few more hours tonight, expected to turn more northeasterly before sunrise. Mid-morning on through mid-afternoon, there will be the potential for gusts around 25 MPH. Mid-late afternoon, there is some uncertainty and lower confidence in the winds for a few hours, as a frontal boundary tries working its way back north. Have a period of light/variable winds...there is some question with just how far north the front gets, and whether it complicates winds briefly before the next cold front pushes south through the area, switching winds back to the northeast. For the final few hours of this period, there will be the potential for isolated to scattered precipitation to develop, so did insert a PROB30 mention.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Today: Low pressure moving from near Kearney to near Columbus this afternoon will pull a narrow sector of warm and very dry air across the forecast area today. As temperatures warm, wind speeds will increase this afternoon with gusts to 25 mph, and some potential for a few gusts to 30 mph. Also expect the wind direction to gradually become more westerly as the afternoon progresses...no sharp wind shifts are expected but more of a gradual change. Near sunset, the wind gusts should come to an end with RH slowly recovering into the evening. Overnight, winds will turn out of the northeast in most Nebraska counties as a front slowly drifts southward, but should remain mainly out of the south in Kansas counties. RH will also increase with RH above 80% north of the front overnight into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday: For much of the day on Tuesday, a front will extend from near Norton to near Hebron, give or take 30 miles or so. North of that front, winds will be out of the northeast and gusty at times, with RH starting the day around 90% and reaching an afternoon minimum around 40%. South of the front, the airmass will be much drier with southwest or westerly winds. MinRH in these areas will be in the 12-16% range, and while winds may gust 20-25 mph, there is some uncertainty in just how strong the winds will be, and whether or not they will reach Red Flag criteria. At this time, with less confidence in the afternoon wind speeds, will maintain the fire weather watch for KS counties as it stands, with intent to make a warn/no-warn decision late this evening or early Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: Thursday looks like the best chance for warm, dry, and windy conditions possibly leading to another Red Flag setup. Friday could also feature a dryline scenario with very low afternoon RH in parts of the area, especially southwest, and followed by a cold frontal passage and a wind shift out of the northwest. The best chance for meaningful precipitation appears to arrive late Friday, although far from a guarantee of widespread wetting rain.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.