textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Officially a dry forecast until early next week, but could there may be at least a small chance for spotty rain Thursday afternoon.

- Seasonally warm temperatures through mid-week but temperatures will be be on the rise and peak over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Upper level ridging remains entrenched across the Northern Plains early today. The center of the high shifted east into western Minnesota based on the evening upper air analysis. The surface analysis looks almost the same as last night with high pressure over Iowa/eastern Nebraska and a bit more steady and stronger southerly flow to the west and up along the Front Range. The sky was clear with temperatures in the upper 60s and dewpoints in the middle 60s.

Temperatures will be near normal, give or take a couple degrees, through Wednesday. After which, temperatures will warm slowly even though the upper level ridge will start to break down. The hottest temperatures are centered on Saturday and Sunday, or just before a weak front passes early Monday. Surface dewpoint forecasts remain "reasonable" for this time of year given the evapotranspiration of the season, though they seem to be a bit low overall. Forecast heat index values are still expected to be below advisory levels, even on the hottest days. Right now, peak heat index values around 100 degrees are centered on Saturday. After the front passes Monday, temperatures will start to drop back. Operational and ensembles both suggest some potential for near normal to possibly below normal temperatures in the 8 to 10 day timeframe.

As mentioned, the forecast is officially dry through early next week, but Thursday afternoon could be the exception. Models at the opposite end of the spectrum (RRFS and ECMWF) are both leaning toward the idea that some afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could emerge as H7 temperatures cool, instability increases and some weakish energy wraps around the upper high from the southeast. Coverage looks very sparse and probably favors areas southeast of Hastings generally speaking, but don't be shocked if there some isolated development Thursday afternoon and the forecast reflects that in coming iterations. Aside from that potential small chance Thursday afternoon, ensembles peg chances of 0.50" total rainfall at less than 25% through July 22/23 so there really is no reason to expect anything of consequence in the next 8-9 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Ridging over the central CONUS will keep us dry and seasonably warm through midweek. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with more "excessive" heat remaining to our north.

We will gradually trend warmer for the end of the week. The peak warmth looks to be centered on Saturday with widespread highs in the mid to upper 90s. As of now, heat index values appear they will remain below advisory criteria (105 degrees) in most areas, thanks to (relatively) low humidity.

A front moves into the area Sunday into Monday. A handful of ensemble members show potential for showers/storms to return, but the overall model consensus continues to favor dry conditions until the middle of next week. Through the next 10 days, global ensembles show only a 10-20% chance to see 0.50" or more. Normal rainfall during this timeframe is around 1.15".

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are forecast for both KGRI/KEAR airports with upper level high pressure dominating the region. Light southeast winds will pick up a bit and turn more southerly for the afternoon hours. Some scattered mid-clouds may develop this afternoon, but those will diminish as during the early evening hours. Not precipitation of visibility restrictions are expected.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.