textproduct: Hastings

UPDATE

Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 50s and 60s under partly cloudy skies. Aloft the area under northwesterly flow with ridging over the Rockies and troughing over the East Coast. Southerly winds currently gusting 20-30mph will become light by sunrise as temperatures bottom out in the low 40s to low 50s. A seasonably warm day is expected as highs climb into the mid 80s to low 90s. Overall light winds and mostly sunny skies will result in a pleasant day across the area.

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Wednesday ahead of an approaching trough. Highs on Wednesday will climb into the 80s, warmest across western portions of the area closest to the dryline where dewpoints are the lowest. Windy weather is expected during the day on Wednesday, with southerly winds gusting 35-40mph. Given the stronger winds expected, an area of near-critical fire weather conditions may develop during the afternoon-evening hours (see Fire Weather section for more details).

Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline in western Nebraska/Kansas late Wednesday afternoon/evening as it moves east. It remains possible that these storms could survive long enough to reach far western portions of the area. If storms do reach the area, they could be strong-marginally severe given sufficient shear and instability. The cold front/dryline push through the area Wednesday night. An isolated shower/storm can't be ruled out, though overall chances remain low at this time. The cold front will stall out across far eastern portions of the area (or just east of the area) on Thursday. Another round of shower/storms are possible Thursday afternoon/evening along the front. Given the position of the front, precipitation coverage looks to be fairly limited overall (along/east of Highway 81). Otherwise the forecast remains on track. Cooler weather is expected Friday onwards, with multiple chances for rain, though the details remain uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Currently...

Dry conditions and overall little in the way of cloud cover reign across the area this afternoon. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show west-northwesterly flow in place, with broad ridging over much of the CONUS, set up between a trough axis working its way toward the East Coast and a larger area of low pressure spinning just off the West Coast. At the surface, we are sitting between high pressure centered over the Midwest/Great lakes and a trough axis draped through the High Plains, keeping our winds southerly. Between the gusty conditions and low relative humidity values this afternoon, made no changes to the ongoing area-wide Red Flag Warning, which runs through 9PM this evening.

Tonight through Tuesday...

Overall, no notable changes made to the shorter term forecast period...which remains dry. Models are in good agreement showing the main upper level ridge axis currently off to our west shifting east onto the Plains during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night...pushed by the larger scale upper level low pressure system which will be working its way inland through the northern half of the West Coast. Not looking at any notable disturbances passing through the area, with skies remaining mostly clear-partly cloudy. A disturbance sliding east to the north of the forecast area tonight into Tuesday morning will push a weak surface frontal boundary south. Doesn't look to make it all the way through the area, stalling out roughly halfway around midday...bringing more easterly winds to northern portions of the area, and southerly across the south. As surface troughing gets more organized over the High Plains through the afternoon hours, that boundary lifts back north/gets washed out, with winds area-wide becoming south-southeasterly. Speeds remain on the lighter side for most...topping out around 15 MPH...the far SE corner of the area may be a bit more breezy, with better potential for gusts over 20 MPH. Though warm once again with highs in the 80s, the more southerly flow brings increasing dewpoints north...diminishing fire weather potential some. See Fire Weather section below for more.

Mid-week on through next weekend...

On Wednesday, models remain in pretty good agreement showing the main upper level low pressure system continuing to trek east, centered roughly over the ID/MT/WY border region by early evening. Ahead of this system, expecting a tightening pressure gradient to develop across the forecast area thanks to strengthening low pressure/troughing over the High Plains...resulting in stronger southerly winds. Sustained speeds of 20-30 MPH and gusts near 35-40 MPH will be possible through the day on Wednesday. High temperatures once again climb into the 80s...and the continued southerly flow pushes those 40s-50s dewpoints further north...keeping relative humidity values from falling off too much. Potential for some spots of near-critical fire weather conditions are there...mainly in NNW areas. See Fire Weather section below for more.

During the afternoon hours on Wednesday, models showing the development of a sharper sfc dryline, which looks to extend through western portions of NE-KS. Increasing lift out ahead of the main upper level system looks to swing SW-NE onto the Nrn Plains and portions of the Central Plains...sparking off thunderstorms along that sfc dryline off to our west. Confidence in the coverage of these storms isn't the highest at this point. Our late day-evening precipitation chances remain on the low side around 20 percent...some uncertainty with how far south things develop, getting further away from the better forcing aloft, and models show warmer mid-level temperatures as well. Some models keep our forecast area completely dry, others clip our far W-NW areas. IF storms can form closer to or move into our west, not out of the question some could be strong- marginally severe. Have some finer forecast details to iron out.

Wednesday night on into the day on Thursday, forecast precipitation chances are tied to the main upper low/trough axis itself...and while those chances aren't high, they are potentially too broad. Have 20-30 percent chances continuing Wed night-early Thu AM across much of the forecast area...could see those getting trimmed quite a bit if recent model trends hold. For the afternoon-evening hours Thursday, thunderstorm chances will be closely tied to the accompanying surface cold front...which most models currently show either right on our eastern edge or just outside our forecast area before things fire. Again...finer details to be ironed out. Thursday brings better potential for increased fire weather concerns...as that surface boundary ushers in drier dewpoints...and winds look to remain on the gusty side.

For the end of the week and this weekend...periodic precipitation chances remain in the forecast. Models showing upper level low pressure moving into central Canada for at least Fri-Sat, with the potential for shortwave disturbances to pass through the region. Confidence in the specifics isn't overly high...so chances remain in the 20-40 percent range. Sunday's precipitation chances are tied more to another disturbance moving inland through srn CA...and models are currently more optimistic with precip potential with this round. We'll see how things trend...it's only Monday. As far as temperatures go...following 70s-near 80 on Thursday, highs fall into the 60s-near 70 for Friday, then more 50s for the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through TAF period. LLWS at 1000ft will persist through the early morning hours, before the Low Level Jet veers and surface and upper level winds decrease. After sunrise on Tuesday, winds become light and variable as winds shift from the southwest to the north and eventually become southeasterly by the afternoon. Southeast winds shift to the south late in the TAF period, with sustained winds increasing above 10kts. Another round of LLWS is possible just past the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Highs in the 80s to low 90s are expected today. Dewpoint values today will range from the upper 30s along/northwest of a Lexington- Ord line, to the low 50s along/southeast of a line from Phillipsburg- York. This results in afternoon relative humidity values ranging from 10-15% in the northwest, around 20% across central portions of the area (Tri-Cities) to around 30% across southeastern portions of the area (Hebron-Beloit). Most areas are expected to experience light winds, with gusts at or below 15mph. The exception will be across Osborne/Mitchell/Jewell counties where gusts of 20-25mph are possible. Given that the strongest winds are expected to overlap with the highest humidity, fire weather concerns are low today though a window of elevated fire weather is possible across Osborne/Jewell/Mitchel counties.

Southerly winds gusting 35-40mph are expected across the area on Wednesday, strongest along/west of Highway 281. Dewpoints on Wednesday will be higher, in the 40s and 50s, with the lowest dewpoints northwest of the Tri-Cities. Highs will climb into the 80s, warmest across northwestern portions of the area where dewpoints are the lowest. An area of near-critical fire weather conditions may develop northwest of the Tri-Cities where the greatest mixing/lowest humidity occurs. Along/southeast of the Tri- Cities higher dewpoints look to keep RH values higher, and above near-critical/elevated fire weather criteria despite the gusty winds.

A cold front/dryline move through the area Wednesday night, resulting in a drier airmass over the area on Thursday. Highs in the 70s results in afternoon RH values below 20% across the area. Widespread near-critical fire weather conditions are expected given westerly winds gusting 20-25mph. An area of critical fire weather conditions may develop where gusts over 25mph are possible, most likely for areas northwest of the Tri- Cities.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.