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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Storm Advisory remains in effect until 3PM today for counties mainly along and north of HWY-6.

- Snow accumulations of a trace up to 1" will be possible for a vast majority of the area with amounts increasing up to 2-3" towards the furthest northeastern portions of the area this morning.

- Wind gusts up to 35-45MPH this afternoon could cause a few areas of blowing snow, resulting in reduced visibilities and challenging travel conditions.

- Another wave of light snow looks more favorable for Monday morning (20-60% chances and greatest towards the south), potentially depositing up to 1-2" more inches of snow across a handful of locations. Mixed precipitation is not expected with this system.

- Lows will range the single digits to teens tonight and Sunday night. Wind chill values, especially tonight, could drop near and into the negative single digits.

UPDATE

Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The Main Story for Today:

As of early this morning, several bands of mixed precipitation have sprung up all around, bringing at least a glaze of ice across a majority of the area. Though most precipitation bands have not quite transitioned to snow yet (as of 2:30AM), low-level temperatures continue to cool, bringing the inevitable closer to fruition. Forecast snowfall amounts have generally come down some this morning (closer to T-2" compared to the previous 1-3" as the total coverage area of these precipitation bands seems to be less expansive than what models have been previously assuming.

The Winter Storm Advisory remains in effect for counties mainly north of HWY-6 through 3PM from the mixture of the freezing rain and accumulating snow later this morning. Though not all places may receive a total of 3" of snowfall (normally Advisory Criteria), the slick and icy roadways as well as the potential contribution of blowing snow later this afternoon, could still create dangerous driving conditions worthy of an advisory.

By the time everything is said and through, a majority of the area (at least 90%) will of receive some snow (mainly a trace to just over an inch) with places north and east of the Tri-Cities seeing amounts up to 2-3". Once the snow accumulations taper off this afternoon (clearing from from west to east between mainly 9AM and 2PM), blowing snow may be possible across areas that receive more meaningful snow amounts. Winds gusts up to 35-45MPH this afternoon should easily loft any non-compacted snow.

What's Next?:

The current northerly winds blowing behind the low as it crosses through Kansas will stick around through much of the day Sunday, helping file in the even colder airmass through the weekend. Temperatures as result will stay in the 20s to mid 30s this afternoon and Sunday. Lows tonight will drop into the low single digits (for our furthest northwestern areas) up to the teens (mainly north central Kansas) with wind-chills near and just below zero degrees. A similar story should return again Sunday night, though temperatures/wind chills may stay a few degrees "warmer".

The other feature of note in the short-term will be the potential impacts of a secondary sweep of light snow mainly on Monday morning. Another disturbance is projected to eject out of the Rockies Sunday night, quickly sweeping by southern Nebraska and mainly Central Kansas. Early snowfall projections aim a corridor of 1-2" peak snowfall amounts across areas near to just south of the state line. Following today's action, our forecast focus will narrow in on this next system, fine-tuneing the details even more.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

As mentioned in the key messages, the Winter Weather Advisory was expanded to include a few more counties on the southern and western side. Temperatures are slightly colder than expected and though freezing temperatures have warmed as far north as the Nebraska border, the tightening baroclinicity will be a focus for some additional ice potential along the Highway 6 corridor. Initially precipitation is very light such as drizzle, light freezing drizzle or flurries...sort of what we are seeing now across the area. That is expected to continue through the evening but expand in coverage/intensity after 10 pm and overnight with the upper level trough approaching. A steady east/west band of precipitation will develop along/either side of I-80 with the heaviest precipitation after 1 AM, with precipitation on the south side starting as mixture of light freezing rain/sleet. North of I-80 precipitation will largely fall as snow but could have some mix initially. Farther south, near the Kansas border and down into north central Kansas, precipitation tonight will be mostly liquid in nature. Temperatures to south will hold steady and only drop off very late tonight.

Saturday will evolve from a messy mixture of precipitation early in the morning, to very windy and cold conditions, then to eventually some clearing later in the day. Whatever mixture of precipitation is ongoing early will quickly changeover as a surge of cold air pushing in to the area as the surface low wraps up to the southeast. Far southwest areas, such as Rooks and Osborne counties, should see very little precipitation as a dry slot impacts that area. Farther north, a 2-3 hour period of precipitation will heaviest prior to 9 AM but then should quickly wrap up by early afternoon. As this happens, strong northwest winds will push across the area between 8 and 10 AM gusting over 40 mph and resulting blowing snow, reducing visibility and some drifting snow in areas where 2 to 3 inches of snow falls. The wind will last all afternoon and into the evening hours and drop off to under 30 mph gusts after 10 pm Saturday. Have kept some blowing snow in the forecast due to wind in eastern through the evening. Temperatures will go nowhere Saturday and either hold steady or fall some through the day. Single digit wind chills in the afternoon will turn to below zero wind chills for some areas Saturday night. This is certainly the coldest couple days of the your cold weather season.

Sunday is a dry day, but cold with passing clouds. Fortunately winds will drop off but with highs in the 20s, temperatures will be 20 degrees or more below normal.

A quick moving wave will slip across the area later Sunday night and Monday morning. Good model consistency that light snow will develop as the wave passes from west-to-east, centered on Monday morning. Precipitation will be light, but the steady, fluffy nature of the snow could easily add up to an inch or two. Locations between I-80 and I-70 are favored at this time for the accumulating snow. Winds will be light thankfully. However, the timing of the snow may cause some minor morning commute impacts.

The rest week remains chilly with highs in the 30s to lower 40s as the region sits on the west of the large trough funneling cold air from the north. No significant precipitation is in the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR ceilings have settled in the KGRI/KEAR this afternoon in the wake of early morning snow. The main story is the wind, which will gust up to 35KTS much of the afternoon from the north/northwest. That could result in some brief periods of blowing snow in the KGRI area but nothing substantial.

Aside from that, clouds will hold in the MVFR category this afternoon though we have managed a few more breaks than previously expected. Essentially, skies will start to clear further this evening and overnight with VFR conditions overnight. Winds will also drop off after midnight and under 12kts by dawn Sunday as they start to shift more to a westerly direction.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.


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