textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Swath of showers and thunderstorms will continue pushing east across the area tonight...can't rule out a few stronger storms with small hail/gusty winds.

- During the daytime hours today, the main upper level disturbance and accompanying surface frontal boundary slide across the Central Plains...gradually focusing the better shower/storm chances east with time. Chances will end from west to east...with the entire area dry by early evening.

- The upcoming Memorial Day weekend is currently dry...but the upper level pattern remains generally zonal, with the potential for periodic disturbances and scattered precipitation chances around the region. Will see how models trend (there are differences) in the coming days.

UPDATE

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Currently...

A broad swath of showers and thunderstorms continues to gradually work its way east across the Central Plains...bringing some welcomed moisture to the area, especially western areas which have been drier and missed out on some of the heavier recent rains. This precipitation is being driven by an upper level trough axis extending southward out of central Canada through the High Plains...with satellite data showing a couple of separate areas of low pressure spinning over southern Saskatchewan and eastern Wyoming. This activity will continue sliding east through the rest of the overnight hours..can't rule out a few stronger storms with small hail/gusty winds, but models show instability generally around 500 j/kg, so not anticipating severe weather. Depending on where some stronger storms develop/move, not out of the question some rainfall amounts around 2 inches could occur. At the surface, the forecast area continues to sit with southeasterly winds, generally around 10-15 MPH...with the main area of low pressure/cold front still off to our west along the High Plains.

Daytime hours today into tonight...

Main forecast concern through the very short term will remain with the ongoing showers/thunderstorms and timing their departure off to the east. As time passes through the morning hours, short term/hi- res models show the better chances for precipitation becoming more focused along the surface frontal boundary. Model timing in generally good agreement with the timing of that boundary...getting it roughly halfway through the forecast area around midday, then to or just beyond the HWY 81 corridor during the late afternoon hours. Across eastern portions of the forecast area mid-late afternoon, ahead of that sfc frontal boundary, models show a narrow axis of higher instability lifting northward...with MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg not out of the question, especially for locations closer to/south of the NE-KS state line. Not out of the question that a few storms could be on the stronger side...at this point given the timing, the better potential for any severe storms looks to focus just off to our ESE, though if things slow down any it could be a close call. Precipitation chances look to slide to our east by early evening...forecast through the overnight hours is dry. Ahead of the front, winds turn more southerly and may be gusty at times...with the passage of front ushering a switch in winds to the northwest, which will also be on the breezy/gusty side...gusts near 20-25 MPH are not out of the question. With this precip and the frontal boundary being a daytime passage...confidence in high temperatures for the day is on the lower side, especially for central areas...and even being this closer there are still some notable differences between models. Forecast has WNW areas looking to mainly be in the 60s, with ESE areas able to climb into the 70s prior to the front.

Memorial Day Holiday weekend and on...

The forecast for Saturday through Memorial Day is currently dry...but at least small precipitation chances will be lingering around nearby. Models showing the upper level low/trough axis currently over eastern WY pushing east into the Dakotas today/tonight...but another push of shortwave troughing moves through the Central Plains Sat-Sat night. Models show scattered spots of precipitation around the region during this Sat-Sat night period...mainly outside of the forecast area, but especially for western and southern areas, it may be close. For Sunday and Memorial Day...while the official forecast is currently dry, it's not a slam dunk guarantee. Models show the upper level pattern being generally westerly, leaving the door open for any potential shortwave disturbances to move through. Models do differ...some keep things dry, others show the potential for some late day-evening activity. Will see how models trend over the coming days. As far as temperatures go...highs for Saturday are forecast to climb into the low-mid 70s, then into the mid-upper 80s by Memorial Day.

Scattered shower/storm chances return to the forecast for Tuesday on through the rest of the week...with models showing the upper level pattern turning back to the SSW as a large area of low pressure digs through the western CONUS. Highs Tue-Fri remain mainly in the 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

This afternoon-Friday...

Scattered showers/storms are developing across northwest Kansas/Southwest Nebraska this afternoon as a shortwave trough begins to move into the Plains. Showers/storms are expected to gradually expand in coverage across the area this evening. Poor instability should keep any thunderstorm weak and non-severe. The most widespread chances (60-95%) for rain will occur during the overnight-early morning hours, most likely for central and northwestern portions of the area. The overall steadiest/heaviest rain will develop along and ahead of a cold frontal passage that pushes into western portions of the area during the early morning hours on Friday. After sunrise, rain diminishes along/ahead of the front as it moves across central portions of the area during the mid- late morning hours. Friday afternoon thunderstorms may redevelop along the front across far eastern portions of the area (Highway 81), through some model guidance keeps this redevelopment just east of the area. Overall rain accumulations will range from around 0.10" across southeastern portions of the area (Osborne-Hebron) to 0.5-1" across northwestern portions of the area (Cambridge-Ord). Ensemble guidance indicates a 60-90% chance for northwestern portions of the area to receive 0.5" or more of rain, and a 30-60% chance for 1" of rain. Breezy winds are expected behind the front, gusting 20-25mph. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, warmest across southeastern portions of the area.

Saturday...

Highs on Saturday will be near their climatological normals, in the low to mid 70s. A passing shortwave trough brings a chance (15-25%) for light rain to portions of north central Kansas Saturday afternoon-evening. Additionally, a few showers/weak storms that develop over western Nebraska may linger just long enough to sneak into western portions of the area before dissipating Saturday evening.

Sunday Onwards....

Southwesterly flow aloft begins to transition to ridging Sunday into early next week. Highs will climb into the 80s with breezy southerly winds. Model spread quickly increases next week as a trough moves into the western U.S. and stalls out. This could bring additional chances for storms to the area as disturbances navigate this troughing and lift into the area. Given model spread, finer details are uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

LIFR to IFR ceilings are expected through at least 14z with VFR conditions returning by 18z to 20z. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected then rain will become heavier and more widespread around 08z to 09z with thunderstorms becoming more likely. Reductions in visibility are expected. Rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to end around 16z to 18z. Southeast winds will become southerly by 12z then southwest by 18z. Northwest winds are expected by 00z

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.