textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Northwest winds increase this morning, with sustained winds of 30-40mph and gusts of 50-60mph. A High Wind Warning is in effect until 6pm.

- Snow showers/bands are possible (15% southwest-55% northeast) across the area today. Snow falling combined with gusty winds could result in squall-like conditions in snow showers.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible along/west of Highway 183. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12pm to 6pm.

- Wind chill values of -5 to -20 degrees expected Saturday morning, coldest along and north of I-80.

- Roller coaster temperatures expected Sunday through the end of the forecast period.

UPDATE

Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

While the strongest winds associated with the cold frontal passage have subsided/departed, winds remain breezy this morning gusting 25- 35mph. Winds will keep temperatures in the upper 20s to 30s this morning, but wind chill values dip into the teens.

No changes were made to the High Wind Warning (in effect until 6pm) as the overall picture (wind-wise) remains on track. Winds ramp up after sunrise, with sustained winds of 30-40mph and gusts of 50- 60mph, strongest for those in the High Wind Warning. Winds are expected to diminish this evening, but gusts of 25-35mph continue into the overnight hours. The strong/gusty winds today will bring a dual threat of fire weather and winter weather concerns across portions of the area.

Winter Weather (most of the forecast area):

As the atmosphere begins to mix this morning, it will become conducive for the development of convective snow showers. By mid- late morning, CAMs support multiple bands of snow impacting areas along and northeast of the Tri-Cities. Snow showers become more widespread by the afternoon, with bands of snow showers possible across all but far western portions of the area.

Snow falling combined with the strong/gusty winds will result in squall-like conditions in snow showers. Bands are expected to be fairly narrow, which will result in rapid changes in visibility over a short distance. Given the scattered nature of the snow bands/showers any accumulations are not expected to be widespread. Still, snow showers could bring a quick dusting to 1" of snow if it sits over an area long enough. The most likely areas to see snow accumulations are along and northeast of the Tri-Cities.

Snow showers will diminish in coverage during the evening hours, though a few scattered showers may persist overnight for far northeastern portions of the area.

Fire Weather (far western portion of the area):

While relative humidity values are expected to remain above "official" fire weather criteria at 25-30%, it's low enough to support fire weather concerns given the northwest winds gusting 50- 60mph. Areas with the highest fire weather concerns today will be along and west of Highway 183, which are under a Red Flag Warning from 12pm to 6pm.

Saturday Wind Chills:

Temperatures Saturday morning will sink into the single digits (Nebraska) to low teens (Kansas). Breezy winds gusting 25-35mph combined with the cold temperatures results in wind chill values of - 5 to -20. Little improvement is expected during the day, as highs only climb into the teens to low 20s with wind chill values in the single digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Today through tonight...

An upper trough is over the East Coast with another upper trough over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. An upper ridge is over the West Coast. A surface trough is across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas which is in advance of the upper trough to the north. This surface trough marks the transition of winds from the southwest to the northwest. Temperatures are currently in the 50s and 60s. The upper trough to the north will move over the area this evening into tonight with winds increasing out of the northwest. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning and is now in effect beginning at 9 PM this evening for most of the area along and west of Highway 281 in Nebraska and for Rooks and Phillips Counties in north central Kansas. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s to low 30s with wind chills down to near 0 to the teens. As upper lift increases over the area this evening into tonight, light rain showers/light snow showers may develop (15% to 20% chance)and move southward. No snow accumulation is expected.

Friday through Friday night...

A broad upper trough will be over the eastern 2/3rds of the country on Friday with gusty, northwest winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Sustained winds during the afternoon will be around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40 to 60 mph. A High Wind Warning will continue to be in effect Friday for most of the area along and west of Highway 281 in Nebraska and for Rooks and Phillips Counties in north central Kansas. These winds will also create fire weather concerns. See Fire Weather Discussion below. Light snow showers will be possible (15% to near 60% chance) Friday primarily affecting locations to the northeast of the Tri- Cities. These snow showers combined with the strong winds will likely (70%-80% chance) create some visibility reductions. Although most places will see little (a trace) or no snow accumulation, a few isolated areas may see accumulations up to a half inch. High temperatures on Friday will range from the low 30s to low 40s but the winds will result in wind chills in the teens to 20s in the afternoon. Low temperatures Friday night will drop into the single digits to teens. Winds Friday night will decrease from the daytime but will be around 15 to 25 mph sustained with gusts up to 30+ mph. These winds will result in wind chills of around 0 degrees down to near -20 degrees Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday night...

A surface high will be in place across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday. High temperatures are only expected to be in the mid teens to mid 20s. Winds will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to around 30 mph. These winds will result in wind chills near 0 to around 10 degrees Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to drop Saturday night with lows near zero to near 10 degrees. Winds Saturday night are expected to become southwesterly around 5 to 10 mph which will result in wind chills of around 0 to around -10 degrees. Temperatures are generally expected to warm up on Sunday although there is some uncertainty to the amount of warming due to another cold front moving into the area. Right now the forecast is for highs to be in the 40s and low 50s but it may be colder depending on the timing of the front. Low temperatures in the single digits to teens are expected Sunday night with wind chills of around -10 to 5 degrees.

Monday through Wednesday...

A broad upper trough will be over most of the country on Monday with a surface high across Nebraska and Kansas. High temperatures on Monday are only expected to be in the 20s and 30s with mostly northwesterly winds. A warm up is expected on Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Another cold front may move into the area on Wednesday with highs in the 30s and 40s. The extended forecast remains to be dry so far.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1205 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: Although at least brief/sporadic MVFR ceiling and MVFR/IFR visibility (due to snow showers) could occur mainly Friday afternoon-evening, by far the main issue will be strong north- northwest winds...both at the surface and slightly aloft (promoting low level wind shear/LLWS issues).

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation: High confidence in no worse than sporadic low-end VFR ceiling through at least 15Z, along with precipitation-free weather. However, especially by 18-00Z, there is a high chance for low- VFR ceiling and at least some chance for an occasional MVFR ceiling mainly 2-3K ft. AGL. However, of overall greater concern (albeit also with greater uncertainty) is the possibility that transient/scattered snow showers will "streak" across the general area from northwest-to-southeast mainly 18-00Z. Should these materialize, at least brief bursts of low visibility (mainly MVFR/IFR) are on the table, but any actual snow accumulation should be under 1 inch. Given what is expected to be only scattered snow shower coverage and intermittent duration, felt that a PROB30 group was still the best approach to convey this potential. For the latter portion of the period Friday evening (00-06Z), chances for any MVFR ceiling and/or snow showers should diminish, but a low-end VFR ceiling could easily persist.

- Winds: - Surface winds: The entire period will be breezy-to-windy out of the northwest. The overall "lightest" winds will focus during these first six hours (sustained around 20KT/gusts 25-30KT). Then, the daytime hours will see an increase to windy/very windy conditions, with especially 18-23Z commonly sustained around 30KT/gusts 35-45KT (briefly higher possible). For late in the period around/after 00Z, a a slight weakening will occur, but gust potential to at least 30-35KT will still persist.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS): Although perhaps a bit marginal at times for formal TAF inclusion given the already-breezy to somewhat windy surface winds, have maintained LLWS groups through 15Z. This is due to winds within the lowest 1-2K ft. AGL averaging 45-50KT, at least sporadically promoting at least 30-35KT of shear magnitude between the surface and this level. Once surface winds ramp up beyond 15Z, any LLWS magnitude should drop below TAF-inclusion- criteria.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY-SUNDAY:

- Friday:

While relative humidity values are expected to remain above "official" fire weather criteria at 25-30%, it's low enough to support fire weather concerns given the northwest winds gusting 50- 60mph. Areas with the highest fire weather concerns today will be along and west of Highway 183, which are under a Red Flag Warning from 12pm to 6pm.

- Saturday:

Fire weather concerns return on Saturday due to the combination of northwest winds gusting 25-35mph and afternoon relative humidity values of 20-25 percent along and west of a line from Lexington, Nebraska to Smith Center, Kansas. A limiting factor on fire weather potential will be high temperatures only reaching into the teens to low 20s.

- Sunday:

Northwest winds gusting 25 to 35mph combined with afternoon relative humidity values of 25 to 30 percent could result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. The most likely areas to see fire weather concerns would be along and west of Highway 183. Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday, in the 40s to low 50s.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ039-040- 046-047-060>062-072>075-082>084. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ060-072-073-082-083. KS...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ005-017. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ005-017.