textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- 15-25% chance this evening of a few brief and isolated showers mainly along and just north of the state line.

- A ~36 hour period of off-and-on mainly showers start Thursday afternoon, lasting as late as Saturday morning.

- Generally 0.25-0.5" of precipitation with peak amount up to 0.75- 1" (greatest accumulations west) will fall ahead of Saturday.

- Temperatures descending towards the 40s by Saturday and will gradually rise back to the 70s by midweek next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Tonight...

A majority of the area should remain precip free tonight and seeing only only a couple of clouds remaining on the backside yesterday's disturbance. Strong southwesterly flow aloft retains with a now stationary upper-level jet holding over southeastern Nebraska. A few brief light showers to sprinkles can't be completely ruled out late this evening/tonight for mainly areas along and just north of the KS/NE state line. A few of the finer resolution models resolve a few brief and isolated showers popping up along this boundary. The best chances (up to 15-25%) generally lie towards the western areas.

At the surface, gusty northwest winds, presently gusting near 15-25 mph, will soon pump the breaks, backing off to only a light 5-10mph wind by this evening. Rising pressure behind yesterday's surface low will gradually turn winds clockwise overnight, eventually settling towards the east Thursday. Lows tonight will run around 10-15 degrees cooler from the previous night, down to the mid 20s to upper 30s.

Thursday through Saturday...

We remain under an amplified pattern as a strengthening ridge to our east and a deepening mid-to-upper level low to our west allows for the strong southwest flow aloft to retain. An embedded and faint shortwave trough will draw up some scattered showers across the Central Plains with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. The initial wave is expected to arrive Thursday afternoon, beginning a ~36 hour period of off-and-on precipitation chances lasting through Saturday morning for the area.

The greatest uncertainty lies with precipitation amounts, as modeled trends have nudged the bulk of the heaviest showers now west of the area. The track of the precipitation center now looks to just barely pass up and around the area. Most places can expect to receive at least 0.25 to 0.5 inches of precip within the day and a half period. Places in our western half (closer to the QPF maxima) may receive up to an 0.75-1 inches. Light snow/flurries will be possible at the tail end of these showers Friday night into Saturday morning.

Otherwise, temperatures through Saturday are expected to continue to descend towards the 40s as the longwave trough out west slowly passes overhead. The coldest day within the next 7 days will likely fall Saturday as highs are expected to hug the 40s. A compressing surface pressure gradient Saturday behind a passing cold front should activate 20-25mph northerly winds, gusting as high as 40 MPH through the afternoon.

Sunday & Beyond...

The remainder of the extended forecast period remains dry (PoPs <15%) with a gradual warmup up on track for early next week. An extended period of weak northerly winds and colder air aloft influenced by the upper-level trough, will allow some cooler air to seep down over the weekend. This will limit the chances for a quick rebound in temperatures until at least Tuesday. The leading long range scenario points towards a ridging pattern taking over the end of next week that could transpire a warmup and generally keep things pretty quiet.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

High pressure over the TAF sites will bring light winds overnight. As the high moves off expect the winds to become more easterly. A low pressure moving in from CO will bring a chance for -SHRA and lower ceilings. My TAF ends with MVFR ceilings, but peaking into the next TAF period it is looking like IFR ceilings will move into the area after 06z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.