textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions expected until at least Tuesday evening.

- Wednesday is the next "good chance" (30-60%) for rain/thunderstorms.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures continue through this week.

- There is increasing potential for extreme heat to return to the region next week (July 12-18).

UPDATE

Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Skies continue to clear today, and any stray showers/t-storms should remain to our east, closer to the departing shortwave. Dry conditions are expected to continue for the next few days as upper level ridging builds over the west/central CONUS.

Temperatures return to the 90s for most areas for Monday/Tuesday. This is slightly above normal, but not "excessive" by any means.

Low chances for t-storms return to the area Tuesday night, but areas to our north and west are more favored. Better chances arrive with a cold front and shortwave Wednesday into Thursday.

Some low t-storm chances linger on Friday, but ensembles are pretty stingy on any additional rain through next weekend and into the following week. Global ensembles also continue to show potential for a round of near-record heat next week. Most notably, the 00Z ECMWF and EPS highlight potential for several consecutive days with temperatures over 100 degrees. Obviously, there is quite a bit of uncertainty given that this is 8-14 days out, but it is something to keep in the back of your mind if you have outdoor activities planned in this timeframe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This evening and Tonight: While this morning's model guidance was a bit more robust, the trend into the afternoon on the high-res hourly runs have trended less active and more dry. This seems to coincide with the assessment of the meso environment. The atmosphere across much of central and south central Nebraska is impacted by this morning's lingering activity shower/thunderstorm activity. This has created a cooler, more stable atmosphere with less shear. Model simulations have trended to develop thunderstorms north of the boundaries in the Sandhills, and then quickly dissipate them as they move southeast. While this isn't an all clear, the trend is in the right direction for any evening 4th celebrations. There could be some nuisance type activity primarily north of I-80 this evening. Feel this is a 20-40% chance, that is lower than I felt this morning when guidance was showing more robust and organized convection.

Dry and seasonal for Sunday and the early part of the work week. Upper level ridging builds in from the southwest. High temperatures will be near 90 degrees.

By midweek, a couple of disturbances will move eastward, breaking down the ridge and making the upper level flow more zonal. This will bring more chances for off and on precipitation through next Saturday. Beyond Saturday, more amplified upper ridging builds into the intermountain west which will keep our area under northwesterly flow and keep the potential for an active period. Temperatures for the second half of the work week are similar, with highs near 90, or slightly less in the upper 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (90%) in VFR conditions through the period, with only FEW-SCT cumulus this afternoon.

Winds remain very light through the period, but will generally be out of the east-southeast this afternoon, turning more to the southeast tonight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.