textproduct: Hastings

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 6PM tonight for Valley, Greeley, Sherman and Howard counties in Nebraska and Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell counties in Kansas.

- A cold front powering through tonight (9PM-1AM) will bring a brief period of gusty northerly winds with gusts high as 30-40MPH immediately following its passage.

- Temperatures will drop around 25 degrees from today (70s) to Tuesday (upper 40s to low 50s) following the cold frontal passage.

- The next chance of rain lies Friday and Saturday with peak probabilities ranging as low as 35% across far northwestern portions of the area up to 70% across far southeastern portions of the area. Despite these generally higher PoPs, precipitation amounts currently look to remain minimal. A lot of uncertainty still resides.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Short Term Period (This Afternoon Though Wednesday)...

The Red Flag Warning in effect for Valley, Greeley, Sherman and Howard counties in Nebraska as well as Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell counties in Kansas, will remain in effect until 6PM this afternoon. Record high temperatures today have helped dry conditions considerably, allowing relative humidity values to drop as low as 10- 25% across the area. Wind gusts approaching 25MPH across the Nebraska Sandhills as well as across portions of north central Kansas this afternoon, provoke these areas of critical fire weather conditions. Near-critical fire weather conditions additionally lie for the rest of the area outside of the warning.

Do not get use to this record heat today as temperatures will drop around 20-25 degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday (from the 70s down to the upper 40s to low 50s). A (dry) cold front will lead the charge later this evening, dropping southeast and initiating this cool down. Winds behind the front will flip northward with a short window of overnight gusts as high as 40-45MPH possible (40-70% chance). The timing of the front is expected to pass between 9PM and 1AM. Higher surface pressure infiltrating behind this front will help nudge these winds back some by the second half of the day Tuesday. Steady to occasionally light winds (gusts <20 MPH) should remain in place through Wednesday with the northerly directions swiveling around to the south overnight Tuesday.

The forecast through Wednesday remains dry as the current pattern aloft (mid-to-upper levels) resembles zonal flow (west to east), generally known to bring along quieter weather along with it. The latest 12z grand ensemble shows general agreement in the persistence of this flat to weak ridging pattern that should continue to stomp out any precipitation chances until at least the end of the weak, as well as keep around the mild temperatures.

Long Term Period (Thursday Through next Monday)...

The forecast becomes slightly more complex as we heads towards the end of the week. For starters, temperatures may rise some Thursday (mid 50s to low 60s) and cool some Saturday (mid 40s to low 50s), though highs across the end of the week and the weekend should mainly hang in and around this sweet spot (mid 40s to low 60s).

The next chance for precipitation (chances as high as 35-70%) lies Friday and Saturday. Our PoPs have been the most notable forecast element to change in the long-term period this forecast cycle. This jump up in confidence has been mainly guided by the increase in individual ECMWF/GFS ensemble members that project at least some amount of precipitation Friday or Saturday. Despite the increase in confidence, these higher than usual PoPs do not necessarily reflect more meaningful precipitation accumulations. In fact, our forecast amounts remain somewhat bleak (<0.5"). We would not be surprised to see these PoPs and amounts tick down some in time. The latest deterministic guidance has not very keen on favoring a system track that would benefit the area precipitation wise (system track projected too far south and east of the local area).

Synoptically speaking, a trough is favored by both ensembles (GFS/ECMWF) to pass through the south central and central U.S. close to Saturday. This trough will likely spinup a weak surface cyclone across Oklahoma sometime Friday. At this point in time, the primarily difference between the two main long-range global model outputs is with their placement of the system's outer rain bands. As of now, the ECMWF (European) has been more generous than the GFS (American) at lifting moisture up into the Region. There is still a concern that a further southern track of this trough/disturbance may hinder the area's ability to see any meaningful precipitation. Long story short, there are still several factors yet to be worked out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Main aviation concern this period will be gusty N winds, particularly over the next 6-9 hours. Still expect at least a few hour period of sustained winds around 20kt, and gusts around 30kt, before some weakening towards dawn. Breezy conditions will persist through midday before steady weakening during the afternoon. Winds will decrease to only ~5kt towards sunset Tuesday evening. SCT to BKN high clouds will abound from time to time, especially during the morning hours, but flight conditions will remain VFR. Confidence: High.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 316 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Localized ice jam flooding potential may continue for a few more days along portions of the Platte and Loup River system:

With the recent warmth, considerable ice melt/movement has developed along portions of the Platte and Loup River systems. Until the ice completely melts, ice jams cannot be ruled out, with the main window of concern expected to be over the next 24 hours. As a result, the potential for continued ice jam flooding concerns will continue to be highlighted in both our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) as well as in a Special Weather Statement (SPSGID), with any official Advisories/Warnings reserved for confirmed flooding that could cause at least minor issues to property, roads, etc.

PLEASE NOTE: Unlike "traditional" warm season flooding from heavy rain that is typically easier to detect via radar rainfall estimation and the network of river gages, ice jam flooding is typically difficult to detect proactively/remotely (unless it occurs very near a gauge). Thus we are ESPECIALLY RELIANT on emergency management, spotters etc. to keep us informed of any ongoing ice jam flooding issues.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.