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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible (15% to 45% chance) later this morning into this evening mainly for north central Kansas. Severe storms are not expected.

- Near freezing to just below freezing temperatures are expected tonight/Friday morning and again Friday night/Saturday morning. Frost/freeze conditions may develop areawide.

- There is a 15%-20% chance of light rain showers/sprinkles on Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

There are some remaining showers across portions of the forecast area which are expected to dissipate/move out of the area during the overnight hours. Winds are light and mostly variable. Low temperatures overnight into this morning are expected to be in the mid 30s to low/mid 40s. Winds this afternoon will mostly be out of the north with high temperatures in the mid/upper 50s to the mid 60s. An area of showers and thunderstorms may (15%-45% chance) move across mainly north central Kansas later this morning through this afternoon and possibly into this evening. Severe weather is not expected. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be present across the area tonight into Friday morning as well as for Friday night into Saturday morning. Low temperatures these two nights/mornings are expected to range from the mid/upper 20s to the mid 30s with the 2nd night being slightly colder than the 1st. Both nights have the potential for frost/freeze conditions to develop areawide. Light rain showers/sprinkles may fall across portions of the area on Friday (15%-20% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

After a foggy start to the day across western areas, mostly sunny skies were observed across the majority of the region this afternoon. A few light showers can be seen developing on radar just to the west of the local area the past few hours, with any more convective looking activity so far remaining across the high plains.

For the remainder of the day, expect an upper level disturbance crossing the Rockies to help continue to fire up a few showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm or two across the local area, but with minimal instability and elevated LCL heights, severe weather is not anticipated. This activity will then slide south through the overnight hours, potentially bringing a few additional showers and isolated weak thunderstorms to our Kansas counties through the daytime hours Thursday. Given the scattered nature of activity depicted in the CAMS, do not expect much in the way of significant or widespread precipitation over the next 24 hours, with most locations receiving just a few hundredths to around a tenth of an inch of rainfall on average.

As skies clear and winds remain light across the area Thursday evening, expect temperatures to fall to near or potentially slightly below freezing in spots, with widespread frost in the forecast to start the day Friday. While currently there is no fog in the forecast to go along with the frost potential, this will be something to keep an eye on as despite low probs in the models, the setup (mostly clear skies/light winds and elevated dew points) is not that dissimilar to this morning when dense fog developed across portions of the area during the early morning hours.

A near repeat of frosty conditions is then anticipated to start the upcoming weekend as high pressure begins to nudge into the area from the west. As this ridge transitions eastward, expect a nice bump in temperatures through early next week when widespread highs are anticipated to be in the mid to upper 70s. This ridge then shows some signs of weakness by Tuesday as a west coast low merges with the an upper level trough to our north bringing back a chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as early as Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours although there is a small chance (20% or less) that MVFR ceilings will briefly impact the terminals between now and 14z. Winds will become northerly by 15z and are expected to mostly remain out of the north through 06z Friday. A west wind is expected by 09z.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.


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