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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Slightly above normal temperatures will generally persist through next week, with most overnight lows dropping below freezing.
- Model data favors a lack of precipitation except for midweek, as potential grows for the first snowfall of the season Tuesday night. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A blocking pattern with a slow-moving flow will limit most active weather this week over NE MT. This will lead to little change in temperatures and storm systems generally being directed well away from the area. However, a shortwave trough and associated cold front Tuesday into Wednesday morning has ensembles in an increasing consensus for the first snowfall for the season. Upslope flow from the west favors the most snow accumulation for the higher elevations of the Little Rockies and western Garfield county. While amounts elsewhere likely remain under an inch, refreeze from initial melting will need to be watched for icy conditions by Wednesday morning. The extent of ridging moving into the region late next week will more strongly favor dry and warmer than normal conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
There is high confidence in a mostly stagnant pattern and mild temperatures through most of the period. Confidence is medium and increasing for widespread measurable precipitation and snowfall by Tuesday night.
+++ Afternoon Package Summary: Snowfall amounts generally came up for our relatively higher elevations (Little Rockies and along the ridgeline east of the Musselshell River in Garfield County). We will need to monitor if there is a continued trend in event totals and possibly creep into the lower elevations in the SW Phillips Zone. Elsewhere, widespread totals under half an inch are common. Winter headlines will be discussed between shifts and will have a more definitive decision in the coming hours about any possible need for SW Phillips County. +++
AVIATION
Updated: 2030Z
Flight Category: VFR (isolated areas of MVFR Monday night)
Discussion: Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will persist through Monday afternoon. A mid level cloud deck builds in from the west on Monday night.
Wind: Becoming light and variable through Monday AM. Monday PM, winds become more WSW'ly at 10-15 kts.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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