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DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Pattern shift starts Monday with temperatures falling through the week.

- Rain will change to snow Monday night, with accumulations possible.

- Wintry travel impacts possible for Thanksgiving holiday travelers.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A flat upper ridge will keep conditions warm and dry today.

A vigorous upper trough moves through the region for Monday. A warm front lifting across the region will bring rain in the south and snow in the north on Monday morning. As the warm front pushes north, the snow in the north will switch to rain during the afternoon. Late in the afternoon the cold front will begin to move through eastern Montana, with gusty winds and the rain changing back to snow overnight.

Tuesday morning will see the system exiting to the east with some lingering light snowfall across the Big Sheep Mountains east into North Dakota. Tuesday afternoon will be cold (highs below freezing for most locations), but the sun should peak through quickly dissipating cloud cover.

Ensembles continue to indicate potential for more snow for Thanksgiving and beyond with colder temperatures for next weekend. There are wide variations in precipitation potential in the models and ensembles at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviation from NBM include increasing winds for Monday afternoon and evening, and minor adjustments to pops on Monday morning.

Confidence for the rain/snow event on Monday into Tuesday is moderate to high. The main issue remains snow amount, with a range of zero to 7 inches.

Later in the week, the model spread increases for increased uncertainty regarding snowfall.

AVIATION

VFR. Periodic mid and high clouds will pass through from time to time.

EQUIPMENT: KOLF and SDY will remain AMD NOT SKED until repairs can be made.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.