textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures climb through Tuesday, trending drier and warmer.

- A cold front is expected on Tuesday with the next round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

- Near average temperatures return after mid week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper level low over central Canada with appending trough extending through eastern Montana will keep cool conditions over the region today, and may provide enough forcing for ascent for isolated showers around mid day.

For Sunday and Monday, that trough will push downstream, replaced by northwest upper flow ahead of a Pacific ridge. This will allow overall drier weather conditions and a recovery in temperatures. By Monday, highs for most of NE Montana will be well into the 70s to near 80 degrees, or back to seasonable levels for this time of year.

The next upper level shortwave and surface cold front is set to arrive on Tuesday with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms likely, along with wetting rains. Ensembles continue to show cool and unsettled weather continuing in the middle of the week with a modest warmup by the weekend as upper ridging translates east from the Pacific shore.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Increased PoPs for this afternoon.

There exists above average confidence through this period overall. Hotter temperatures Tuesday coupled with stronger winds and min RH values put the HDWI above the 50th percentile - something to keep a watch on in southwestern zones.

AVIATION

UPDATED: 1930Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: BKN mid and high clouds will maintain through tonight before mostly clear skies tomorrow. A brief, light rain shower is possible over KGDV this afternoon.

WINDS: Northwest winds 10 to 15 kts during the day, becoming variable after 6Z tonight. Lighter northwest winds 5 to 10 kts after 18Z tomorrow.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.