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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Fog and low stratus will return in varying degrees overnight in some areas of northeast Montana and linger into Sunday morning.
- Warmer than average temperatures will persist through Tuesday.
- An approaching upper-level trough will bring a cold front through the area Tuesday night with rain mixed at times with snow between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
A low level inversion will trap low level moisture near the surface again tonight with areas of low clouds and fog expected.
Fog aside, an upper-level ridge over the area will result in warmer than average temperatures through Monday.
The ridge aloft will gradually move to the east Monday and Tuesday ahead of an upper level trough that that will set over the Pacific Northwest, resulting in SW flow aloft for Monday and Tuesday. A shortwave trough ahead of the main upper trough will move through eastern Montana Tuesday night and Wednesday with a cold front and light rain that will be mixed with snow at times.
The main upper trough settles into the Pacific Coast Wednesday and Thursday and moves inland Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will be closer to normal Wednesday and beyond across the region.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- Changes from NBM were to increase the areal coverage for fog overnight and Sunday morning to most areas north of the Missouri River and east of MT 13 and 253 south of the Missouri River. . - Confidence in fog occuring overnight and Sunday morning is high but low in exactly where fog will develop. - Confidence in fair conditions persisting through Monday is high.
- Confidence in mid week pattern change is high.
- Confidence in precipitation Tuesday night and Wednesday is moderate.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0330Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - LIFR
DISCUSSION: Expect clear conditions with scattered high clouds tonight and Sunday. Patchy fog remains a possibility overnight and Sunday morning and could reduce visibility to less than 1SM anywhere it develops.
WIND: East to SE 5 to 10 knots this evening becoming light and variable after 06z. South to SW winds will develop after 18z Sunday.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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