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DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES: - Patchy dense fog will return over the region tomorrow morning.

- Areas of mixed precipitation are possible this afternoon before shifting to snow Saturday afternoon.

- Dangerous cold wind chills as low as 35 below beginning tomorrow mid morning.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A deepening trough will continue to drop south with moist southwest flow through tomorrow. Scattered mixed precip showers are expected this afternoon north of HWY 2. A cold front follows tonight, with temperatures beginning a free fall to below zero by Saturday night. Precipitation will change over to snow, and winds will be increasing with strong cold air advection and pressure rises.

Canadian/Arctic high moving across the region on Sunday, will keep temperatures well below normal, and a Cold Advisory has been issued for 11 AM tomorrow through 11 AM Sunday. There is a chance that a Cold Weather Warning may be issued for northern Phillips and northern Valley counties if temperatures lower or winds increase.

Ridge rebounds quickly to the west and a chinook develops, pushing temperatures back toward normal for next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Blended 75% HRRR for day 1 winds, and 25% NBM90 day 1 wind gusts. Blended 50% NBM90 for day 2 wind, and 25% NBM90 day 2 wind gusts. Dropped day 2 max temps. Followed TFX method of copying day 1 min temp and adding 5.

Today through tonight precip and temperatures: High confidence in cold weather advisory temps. Low confidence in precip type this afternoon, with incoming remnants of convective activity. Tomorrow through mid week temps: Moderate confidence in very cold wind chills meeting advisory criteria through possibly Monday morning. Tomorrow through the weekend precip: Moderate confidence in minimal precip.

AVIATION

Updated: 2130Z

Expected Flight Category: As low as LIFR

Synopsis: Low stratus and patchy fog will return over area terminals this evening with patchy to dense freezing fog. Brief chances for light freezing rain, rain, snow mix will begin this afternoon. Snow is expected early tomorrow morning.

Winds: Light south winds will veer west tonight. West winds will begin to increase by 15Z becoming 20 - 30 kts during the afternoon tomorrow.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM MST Sunday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan- Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.