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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry weather conditions will continue along with seasonable temperatures through the midweek.
- Precipitation chances look to increase late Thursday night into Friday.
- Cooler and drier weather expected for the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Gusty southeast winds that had preceded the approaching upper ridge have diminished across the area allowing the Lake Wind Advisory that had been in effect across Fort Peck Lake to expire on time. Next, attention focuses on seasonably warm and dry weather as the ridge translates east through the midweek across NE Montana. High temperatures will peak on Thursday as the ridge axis begins to push downstream of the CWA.
Meanwhile, a deepening upper level trough will send southerly upper level flow across the region as a surface cold front slides through Thursday night and Friday. As Pacific moisture advances ahead of this trough, rain chances will increase behind the front Thursday night into Friday before shifting east by Saturday morning. Current ensemble means depict a quarter to a half of an inch over the CWA with lesser amounts toward Wibaux.
Look for drier albeit far cooler weather conditions for the weekend behind the departing system.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM held the line this forecast cycle capturing large scale trends in the short to medium term efficiently given the benign weather expected with the upper level ridge. Confidence continues to increase on precipitation chances by Friday, though details on precipitation timing and placement as well as specific amounts will come into focus as the event heads into the short term and is better resolved by high resolution models.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: Tuesday October 20, 2026 at 0400Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will guide seasonably mild and dry conditions through the midweek.
WIND: Light and variable winds will become north to northeast at 5 to 9 kts after 18Z Tuesday.
LLWS: Low level wind shear is possible Tuesday morning near KSDY and KGDV but should diminish during the afternoon.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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