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DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Strong northwest winds areawide and snow showers across the eastern half of the area are expected thru Friday. High Wind Warnings have been issued for all of NE Montana.

2) A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for cold temperatures and wind chills on Friday night into Saturday.

3) Potential for strong winds on Sunday and near average temperatures late this weekend into next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A Canadian surface low and shortwave trough are dropping south quickly into southern Montana. Northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft will allow for snow showers to linger in the east through tomorrow morning. Strong winds gusting up to 60 mph are possible through 5 PM Friday. Chances are high (70-90%) for gusts of 58+ mph for areas such as the Little Rockies, Big Sheeps, and Sheridan county. Elsewhere, widespread high winds are less likely, but still a medium (40-70%) chances for getting at least a few high wind gusts between this evening and Friday afternoon. Cold air advection will allow for wind chills in the northeast part of the area to drop as low 30 below zero Friday night into Saturday.

Current WSSI puts parts of Sheridan, eastern Roosevelt, and the higher elevations of the Big Sheeps from minor to moderate impacts as snow moves across eastern portions of the area tonight. There is some potential for 850 millibar frontogenesis to develop, but there is still a decent amount of uncertainty.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Made deviations to PoPs with Conshort, HRRR, NBM, and SREF through midday Friday. Also bumped winds up slightly with seventy five percent base NBM and twenty five percent NBM 90 through 5 PM Friday.

There is high confidence of winds gusting to 45 knots and higher through 5 PM Friday areawide. There is low to moderate (30 to 50 percent) confidence of snow showers leading to precipitation accumulation in the eastern part of the area through Friday afternoon. There is high confidence of wind chills reaching 20 to 30 below zero in the northeast part of the area on Friday night into Saturday morning. There is moderate confidence in strong northwest winds on Sunday, but low confidence on how high the wind gusts will go.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 2100Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: A cold frontal passage and shortwave trough is moving through the area. Snow showers will come to an end through 23Z before more opportunities for snow occur tonight. There is moderate confidence that KOLF, KSDY, and KGDV will see snow showers and MVFR conditions occur from 03Z through 17Z Friday.

WIND: Northwest 20 to 35 knots with gusts over 40 knots.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson- Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Southwest Phillips- Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 10 AM MST Saturday for Daniels-Eastern Roosevelt-Northern Valley-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt.