textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably strong upper ridging over the region will bring much above average temperatures today.

- Elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon from breezy conditions and low humidities.

- Warm temperatures next week then cooler temperatures return next weekend with increased chances of precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Seasonably strong ridging continues today and will bring above average temperatures and dry conditions into the region. Through this afternoon and evening, the ridge will begin to flatten out from a developing low over Alberta, Canada. The pressure gradient in response will increase and winds aloft strengthen. Assuming efficient mixing from warm temperatures, breezy and gusty winds are likely through tonight.

The presence of a chinook arch may help to further increase temperatures and drying conditions today as downsloping winds compressionally warm and increase ground temperatures. Fire weather concerns slightly increase this afternoon, but current NDVI imagery indicates mostly green vegetation which should inhibit any fire growth.

Temperatures on Sunday will cool off behind a passing cold front, then weak ridging returns early next week ahead of a digging upper low off of the west coast. As the system continues to advance southward, upper- level flow into Northeast Montana gradually shifts towards the southeast. By midweek, the low is cut off by a northern stream trough and begins moving inland towards the Four Corners. Pacific moisture will be pulled into the northern trough and transport moisture into the CWA, increasing chances for precipitation late next week into the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

- Temperatures trending higher next week in latest NBM runs.

- Given the quiet weather through the week, confidence is generally high through forecast period. Uncertainty remains with any precipitation at the end of next week.

- Confidence of storm track late next week is low. Beyond Thursday, model agreement decreases on the disturbance's path over the Four Corners region. Currently, the GFS20 favors a northerly track into Montana, while the ECMWF- HiRes keeps it well to the south.

KENZ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1826Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

Discussion: Dry weather and high clouds to persist throughout the cycle with possible mid-level clouds coming into KGDV and KOLF overnight into Sunday morning. A chinook arch is overhead and high clouds are currently present.

Wind: West to southwest winds continue to increase through this afternoon before diminishing by the evening hours. Winds will start to veer northwest across the terminals tonight into Sunday morning. Gusty conditions are likely over KGGW and KOLF, while KSDY and KGDV should only see a slight increase in wind speeds with little to no gusts. By the end of the forecast period, winds should become more light and variable.

LLWS: Low level wind shear begins to enter into the region around 01Z, increasing through the morning and exiting by 13Z Sunday. All of the TAF sites will experience LLWS, and confidence is moderate for widespread areas of LLWS across southeastern zones of the CWA.

KENZ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.