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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm, dry, and breezy weather through the weekend. Widespread 70s on Sunday with a Red Flag Warning for areas east of HWY 24.
- A cold front arrives Sunday night with a slight cool down and isolated showers through Monday.
- Another slow warm up is expected by mid work week with mostly dry conditions.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Synoptic upper ridging will allow for large scale subsidence and much warmer than average temperatures this weekend. While a dry cold front brings some mid-level cloudiness and stabilized temperatures today, another one late arriving Sunday night brings particularly warm/dry/breezy conditions ahead of it with highs near 80 degrees.
After the cold front arrives Sunday night, a northwest flow aloft will bring much cooler temperatures Monday with scattered showers. As another upper level ridge expands eastward, the pattern will rebound temperatures to seasonably warm levels.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Increased winds/wind gusts and max temp, and lowered min RH for day 1-2. Slightly increased PoPs for day 1 based on radar and to better match up with neighbors in southern zones. There is high confidence in minRH as low as 10% tomorrow, with moderate confidence in temperatures reaching low 80s.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: Dry weather with SCT to BKN mid to high level clouds.
WIND: North at 15 to 20 kts gusting to 30 kts, becoming light and variable after 6Z tonight. Winds tomorrow gradually increase through the morning, becoming northwest at 20 to 25 kts gusting to 35 kts after 18Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.
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