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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated showers remain possible today.
- The next system brings showers/thunderstorms in from the west Thursday afternoon and night.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
The slow moving upper low will linger over southern Saskatchewan today. Most of the moisture will stay north of the Canadian border today with isolated showers expected at times. The low drifts east and a shortwave ridge moves into the area with dry weather.
On Thursday, the next shortwave will move in from the west with chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may produce heavy rainfall as precipitable water will be around an inch or slightly higher.
The next shortwave ridge bring dry and warmer weather on Friday. Flow aloft turns SW on Saturday with the potential of being a hot day in the east depending on the timing of a cold front across the region. The cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly Saturday night.
More concerning will be a prolonged SW upper flow that sets up this weekend and beyond. This time of year could mean higher than normal thunderstorms occurrences that could be severe. Flash flooding is also possible with Precip Water near or above an inch (normal is between 0.50-0.75").
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Low confidence in timing any chances for showers today. Low confidence in shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday night and beyond. No changes to base forecast at this time.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0700z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: A mix of MVFR and VFR this morning. VFR this afternoon and tonight.
DISCUSSION: Low clouds this morning will produce MVFR ceilings at times at KGGW and KOLF. KSDY and KGDV will have mid level clouds this morning with isolated showers possible. Skies will gradually clear this afternoon and evening with some daytime cumulus expected. Skies will be mostly clear tonight. Winds will be west to NW 10 to 15 knots early turning west during the day today and NW at 10 knots or less this evening.
EQUIPMENT: KSDY obs are unavailable online and will be AMD NOT SKED.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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