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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Seasonable temperatures and widespread rain showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected today through tonight.
- Below normal temperatures with mixed precipitation and gusty NW winds in the afternoon Thursday and Friday.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper low off the northern California coast will lift through the Great Basin through the early half of the week. This will continue to push Pacific moisture into the state, with another round of showers possible today into tonight. Isolated thunderstorms embedded in the rain showers could produce some brief gusty winds.
The next upper trough moves from the PCNW into the northern Rockies on Wednesday and into the Plains through Friday. This will lead to another round of showers, and with colder air in the trough, mixed precipitation is possible across much of the region Wednesday night into Friday morning, particularly for elevated areas.
Chances for a quarter inch of rain over this time period are about 20 - 60% across northeast Montana. Chances for 1" of snow are between 20 - 30% with highest chances along the Canadian border and over the Little Rockies.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviations from NBM include slight adjustments to the next 24 hours of Sky grids to get OVC into the grids for TAFs.
HIGH confidence in a tenth of an inch CWA wide Wed night to Friday. LOW confidence in snow across northern CWA day to Thursday night to Friday morning.
GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0400Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR
DISCUSSION: Incoming showers are expected to begin this morning and be on and off through the day. VFR ceilings start impacting the terminals around 09Z and expand to all terminals by 13Z mid morning. Some isolated lightning is possible with these showers at KGDV and KSDY but is currently too limited to place in the TAF directly. IFR ceiling may be met around 14-20Z before lifting back to MVFR. Showers should exit all terminals by about 06-07Z Tuesday morning with slow clearing across the west Monday evening. But, MVFR ceilings will linger in the east until mid-day Tuesday.
SFC WIND: NE to E at 10 to 15 kts or less through the morning and afternoon. KGDV may become light and variable Monday night with E wind remaining below 10 kts for the other terminals. Then light and variable for all after midnight.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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