textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Most of the active weather has been winding down today.

- Unsettled conditions remain most of this week with scattered showers/thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper low that moved in that gave the area scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding has generally moved north into Canada. Scattered showers remain across the CWA and into central Montana. Temperatures coolest over the NW zones which are closer to the low pressure, steadier showers and clouds.

The vertically stacked low over southern Alberta, Sask and northern Montana will remain over the area but is expected to gradually lift into south-central Canada midweek. This will allow for a windy day Tuesday, probably enough for a Lake Wind Advisory.

An upper trough will remain in place over western Canada for the remainder of the week that will keep the threat of scattered showers/storms going across northeast Montana. With a hot airmass just to our south, wouldn't be surprised if some of these are severe with large hail and/or damaging wind.

Late in the period, the models try to bring an upper ridge in here that would bring hotter and drier conditions but the confidence is low at this point.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes to the default/NBM forecast were made today. TFJ

AVIATION

UPDATED: 2045z Sunday June 28th

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR/MVFR

Clouds and showers will continue to spin counter-clockwise around an area of low pressure centered just north of Havre. Most of the ceilings through 18z Monday will be VFR but will lower to MVFR in heavier showers. An area of MVFR ceilings will also move into the KSDY airspace Monday morning. TFJ

HYDROLOGY

Updated: Sunday June 28th

Rainfall over the past several days seems to have caused very little impact over the area as of today. Flood Advisory for most of Phillips and NW Valley counties were allowed to expire at 2 pm. Otherwise, a Flood Advisory for Daniels expires at 6 pm and the Flood Advisory for central Garfield county expires at 8 pm.

The Frenchmen River along the Canadian border had risen recently but has remained nearly steady below Action stage. TFJ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM MDT Monday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.