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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Mild and breezy conditions continue through Thursday night, with a High Wind Watch for strong winds Thursday in Phillips County.
- The next chance for widespread accumulating snow arrives Friday into Saturday.
- A glancing blow of Arctic air this weekend will transition back to warmer than normal temperatures next week.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Chinook winds will dominate the forecast through Thursday. While this brings warmer than normal highs in the 40s and 50s, increasing winds will coincide with a shortwave trough passage that aids in mixing down strong winds over Phillips county. There is persistent model agreement for winds reaching at least 40, gust 60 mph around the Little Rockies and adjacent areas to the north/east. Most of the remainder of NE Montana has a low (<30%) chance of strong winds occurring with 40-50 mph gusts more common, but would see a few gusts of 55-60 mph in a high end scenario. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for Phillips County late Wednesday night into early Friday morning.
Late this week extending into the weekend, temperatures will fall in response to a backdoor cold front from the northeast, sending wind chills subzero for a period. This transition will bring with it likely chances for accumulating snow from an Alberta clipper low pressure system Friday into Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Given the strong westerly flow expected through Thursday night, the forecast was nudged toward the 90th percentile in support of the High Wind headlines. Excellent consensus has emerged among ensembles in recent days on this event and confidence should only increase as high resolution model guidance become available. Confidence is moderate on the extent of cold air and setup area of a band of accumulating snow late this week.
-JEZ
AVIATION
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR to IFR
DISCUSSION: A deck of MVFR clouds is gradually departing to the east this afternoon, leading to mostly VFR before 12Z. An increase in low level moisture Wednesday morning gives high confidence for a period of MVFR to IFR ceilings and patchy fog.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for Central and Southeast Phillips-Northern Phillips-Southwest Phillips.
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