textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- This morning will be cold across northeast Montana, with below freezing temperatures in most areas.

- Phillips and Petroleum Counties could have isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, Wednesday afternoon into Thursday will be the next chance for showers and perhaps and few thunderstorms. Most areas are expecting to have less than a tenth of an inch of rain. - Warm weather expected this weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Forecast begins with a large cold airmass over the Hudson Bay. A trough runs west out of it and down through southern Canadian Prairie Provinces and eastern Montana, and terminates over northern Utah. An equally amplified ridge runs from northern California the PCNW, British Columbia, and terminates over the Yukon Territory.

This morning through tonight: Conditions will start off cool with a ground freeze initially as clear skies hover over the area. By the late afternoon, a wave on NW flow aloft between the ridge to the west and trough to the east will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to west and central Montana this afternoon and evening with a chance of the showers and thunderstorms as far east as Phillips and Petroleum Counties.

Wednesday into Thursday Morning: A low pressure surface trough over central Montana on Wednesday morning will move east during the day. This system will bring a cold front across eastern montana Wednesday afternoon and evening with rain showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. An upper trough will move through the area on Thursday with chances for showers along with a few Thunderstorms. QPF totals Wednesday and Thursday will be less than a tenth of an inch in most areas with isolated areas receiving more rainfall.

Thursday night into the weekend: Conditions will clear and warm through these time periods with maybe a weak shower possible Saturday night with ensemble breakdown occuring about this point forward making confidence from Saturday onward.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes to NBM were focused to hourly PoPs in the late afternoon and evening along with during the day on Wednesday. Hourly NBM data was being direct interpolated in the last 5 hours. Used and NPoP blend of available CAMs to try to quick blend in a slightly better trend.

Confidence in timing any showers and thunderstorms over the next few days is low. High confidence in that showers will occur at times Wednesday afternoon and evening somewhere in NE Montana but the confidence in the when and where is low.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0800Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Mostly clear skies are expected this morning. A few isolated fog pockets may be possible northeast of KOLF and KSDY as clouds clear but should not impact the main terminals directly this morning. A mix of daytime cumulus and mid to high clouds approaching the area from the west will bring increasing clouds this afternoon. Mid level clouds will be over the area tonight.

WIND: Light and variable early, becoming S to SW after sun rise and increasing to 5 to 15 knots during the day today and backing to the S to SE this evening.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.