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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- A slow warm up with mostly dry conditions is expected through Thursday.

- Another system will arrive around Thursday night with ample rain possible behind it through the weekend. A severe storm or two may be possible Friday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A weak ridge will begin building over the northern Rockies today, then spreads east on Thursday in response to upper low diving south from the Gulf of Alaska. With the increase in southwest flow aloft and south to southeast low level flow, moisture will be drawn northward from the Gulf and the southwest monsoon. This will set the stage for widespread showers and thunderstorms from late Thursday through the weekend. While there is the potential for severe weather, heavy rain will be a greater threat with precipitable water rising to over an inch.

To start out July, the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble have temperatures climbing warmer than normal and precipitation coming down, so the sprinklers may start coming in handy again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No significant changes from the NBM.

AVIATION

Mostly VFR. Some scattered MVFR ceilings possible in the morning with patchy fog.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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