textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday with some records challenged.

- There is an opportunity for elevated fire weather conditions across the area this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

- There is an opportunity for precipitation tomorrow. Temperatures will cool closer to normal this weekend as chances for precipitation move into the area again.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A chinook pattern remains over the area with northeast Montana being closer to the northern end of a heat dome ridge across the western US. A surface stationary front is expected to remain over the far northeast part of the area through Saturday, so there is an opportunity for light rain showers tomorrow according to the 12Z HRRR, NAMNEST, and HRWFV3 models north of the Missouri River. Very little accumulation (less than 0.02 inches) is expected. The relative humidity dropped as low as the mid teens over the southwest part of the area yesterday, which is much lower than the NBM predicted. This leads into the idea of today and tomorrow being similar to yesterday. There is elevated fire weather concerns for today and tomorrow as a result. High clouds overhead and snowfall this past weekend are limiting factors for why fire products are not being issued. While record high minimum temperatures are possible, it seems more record high maximums in the 70s have potential to be broken through Friday.

The broad upper level ridge in place remains into Friday before starting to break down according to the latest GFS ensemble. The next chance for any light precipitation will be over the weekend along with some moderation in temperatures toward normal. So far, there is some agreement of northeast Montana receiving anywhere from a trace up to one tenth of an inch of precipitation on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Main deviations are the humidity was decreased for this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, winds were increased in the southwest part of the area, and temperatures were bumped upward for today and tomorrow by a couple degrees based on yesterdays observations. The PoPs were increased for tomorrow, and then for Saturday to bring PoPs upward to the likely category for rainfall.

There is moderate confidence on elevated fire weather conditions occurring today and tomorrow based on fuels receiving snowfall fairly recently. There is very high confidence on temperatures being above average through Saturday.

There is moderate confidence on rain showers occurring tomorrow, with high confidence on the accumulation forecast.

There is high confidence of light rain showers occurring on Saturday, with moderate confidence on accumulation.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1800Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

DISCUSSION: Some chinook mid to high level clouds are expected to continue moving through the area today. Then a stationary front over the far northeast part of the area will be enough to generate a chance for precipitation tomorrow morning into the afternoon. There is low to moderate confidence of rain showers occurring during this time, but VFR conditions are expected to remain in place.

LLWS: There is moderate to high confidence of northwesterly low level wind shear occurring from 04Z to 14Z.

WIND: West northwest at 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, decreasing to 5 to 15 knots after 04Z, increasing to 10 to 18 knots after 18Z.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.