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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry weather with above average temps and highs in the 50s and 60s are expected to continue through the end of the next work week.
- Windy conditions will last into mid-day Saturday. A Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck and High Wind for SW Phillips are out.
DISCUSSION
A broad upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska will allow storm systems to crash into British Columbia over the next several days with drier/weaker systems emerging over the lee of the front range.
This will bring some instances of winds for northeast Montana while temperatures are expected to remain above normal. The first weak front will move in late tonight/Saturday. A wind gust to 58 mph has a low confidence (30-50%) of occurring but have continued with the previous High Wind Warning until it is proven to not occur.
Also issued a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake tomorrow from 7 am till 4 pm as wind speeds greater than 20 mph could occur.
Another weak front moves in late Sunday afternoon with potentially breezy conditions into the even but nowhere near as strong.
Ridging builds back into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night and expands throughout the week. This should keep conditions dry through the end of the work week but ensembles amplify this ridge heavily into Friday. Afterward confidence goes to low as ensemble groups disagree on how to break the ridge down.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
No deviations from NBM were observed.
HIGH confidence in the forecast through Monday night.
MODERATE confidence through Wednesday night.
LOW confidence Thursday onward.
TFJ/GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0515Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: Mid-high clouds will move in tonight and exit around noon Saturday.
LLWS: Low level wind shear has a strong chance(40-70%) Saturday morning for all the terminals through about 16-17Z.
WIND: W to SW at 10 kts or less through sunrise Saturday. Increasing to around or under 10 to 20 gust 30 kts mid-day Saturday. Then rapidly decreasing to 10 kts or less and becoming variable into the evening and overnight hours.
TFJ/GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM MST Saturday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield- McCone-Petroleum.
High Wind Warning until 9 AM MST Saturday for Southwest Phillips.
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