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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and breezy conditions are expected for Saturday with a few showers across the area.

- Temperatures look to rebound for Sunday and Monday with dry weather conditions.

- A cold front is expected on Tuesday with the next round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper level low over central Canada with appending trough extending through eastern Montana will keep cool conditions over the region today, and may provide enough forcing for ascent for isolated showers around mid day.

For Sunday and Monday, that trough will push downstream, replaced by northwest upper flow ahead of a Pacific ridge. This will allow overall drier weather conditions and a recovery in temperatures. By Monday, highs for most of NE Montana will be well into the 70s to near 80 degrees, or back to seasonable levels for this time of year.

The next upper level shortwave and surface cold front is set to arrive on Tuesday with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms likely, along with wetting rains. Ensembles continue to show cool and unsettled weather continuing in the middle of the week with a modest warmup by the weekend as upper ridging translates east from the Pacific shore.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM was utilized for this cycle save for minor adjustments for consistency. There is decent ensemble agreement on the handling of the main focus for this upcoming forecast, the shortwave and frontal passage Tuesday and associated thunderstorm chances. There exists above average confidence through this period overall. The only addition will be to include some mesoscale detail as this enters the short term scene.

AVIATION

UPDATED: Saturday June 12, 2026 at 0630Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Clouds will increase from the north today with isolated showers possible, especially mid morning to early afternoon hours, 16-20z.

WINDS: Northwest winds will range 10 to 15 kts today, with occasional gusts over 20 kts in the afternoon.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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