textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Low and mid-level clouds will persist over the area early this morning. This will include a north-south oriented band of flurries.

- Expect a warm up Monday. Wx will become more unsettled though with higher chances for random rain/snow shower mixes through the work week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Today through Sunday: A north-south oriented band of low clouds and flurries is steadily making its way eastward this morning and is expected to exit the area around 4 to 6AM leaving clearing skies and dry conditions which should last into the weekend.

There is a minor watch over Sheridan county tonight for a cold Advisory. At this time the Wind Chill numbers do not look to go below -25*F. That said, this will need to be monitored for as there is some lower confidence here.

Monday into Tuesday night: Temperatures warm up at this time with daytime highs especially across the southwest rising above freezing. The Arctic boundary will ping pong back and forth from SW to NE and become a focal point for any developing mixed showers. The boundary itself will probably have a 10-15 degree drop depending on which side you are on. Zonal flow aloft during this time will drag in pacific moisture that will latch onto this boundary and generate light showers of both rain and snow during the day and mostly snow at night, though QPF numbers look low to minimal. So, nothing more than a light dusting is currently anticipated. Will need to keep a watch on this time to see if any disturbance gets transfered to NE Mont in the flow and provides enhancement. but Confidence in whether, when, and where it would hit is currently LOW.

Wednesday onward: While temps stay up, all ensembles turn into a spaghetti of warmer weather during this time lowering confidence down to minimal from mid-week to beyond. GAH

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviation from NBM/WPC include hourly PoPs from current time through about 12Z. And where raised to match observations and radar trends initially and then slowly tapered out as the north snow snow band slowly dissipates.

Confidence is HIGH in below normal temps and dry conditions through Sunday after the morning snow band is finished.

Confidence is HIGH Warmer weather Monday onward is HIGH.

Confidence is MODERATE in some type of minor rain-snow event Monday through Tuesday night.

Confidence is is LOW in dryness or precip from Wednesday onward.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0500Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR - VFR

DISCUSSION: A slow-moving disturbance will keep low and mid level clouds over the areathis morning while drifting to the east. This will include periods of light snow or flurries with minimal to no accumulations for the TAF sites. Snow could bring brief MVFR or IFR visibilities with MVFR ceilings as it passes. All snow chances should exit the area between 10 and 12Z this morning which should leave all VFR from there onward.

SFC WIND: Light And Variable this morning. Gaining a slight E component this afternoon and evening. Then light and variable Saturday morning.

GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.