textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry, and breezy today. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of HWY 24.

- Much cooler temperatures and isolated rain showers tonight through Tuesday following a cold front.

- Another slow warm up is expected by midweek with warm temperatures, and chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Synoptic upper ridging will allow for large scale subsidence and much warmer than average temperatures today. A cold front arriving tonight brings particularly warm/dry/breezy conditions ahead of it, with some prefrontal warming bringing highs as warm as the lower 80s this afternoon.

Following the cold front and deepening trough tonight, winds will shift northerly will bring much cooler highs in the 40s and 50s tomorrow with scattered showers (mostly virga for some). As another upper level ridge expands eastward, the pattern will rebound temperatures to seasonably warm levels with a continuation of limited moisture available for precipitation.

By midweek periodic shortwaves will pass through and bring scattered showers and thunderstorm activity, mostly favoring southwest zones. Chances for precipitation look to return next weekend, with models beginning to hint at another trough at the end of the workweek.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Increased day 1 - 2 winds and gusts, lowered day 1 RH back from base NBM. There is high confidence some lower elevations to reach 80 degrees this afternoon with RH nearing 10 percent. Confidence is moderate or average for the extent of warming and further drying later this week based on advancement of upper ridging to the west. After midweek there is very little model agreement in the strength and location of troughing and closed lows.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1800Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Dry weather with FEW to SCT mid to high level clouds through the afternoon. OVC skies will develop by 3Z with isolated rain showers behind a cold front.

WIND: W at 20 to 25 kts gusting to 30 kts, veering NNW through 5Z. Wind speeds lighten slightly to 15 to 20 kts through the night before returning NW at 20 to 25 kts gusting to 30 kts after sunrise.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT Monday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.