textproduct: Glasgow

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A blocking Hudson Bay low maintains zonal to northwest flow across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS through the forecast bringing weak pacific shortwaves for afternoon showers and general thunderstorms today. These showers should start around noon and end around 9PM, but should not be severe. Totals look light for most areas with over an tenth of an inch possible in the far northeast.

Friday through Saturday, an upper level ridge moves across the region bringing warmer and drier weather for a couple days. gust SE winds are expected ahead of a cold front Saturday night, and might get high enough to reach Lake Wind Advisory criteria.

Saturuday night through Wednesday, conditions cool off with a cold front initially saturday night into mid-day Sunday as zonal flow returns initially. Another brief shortwave will pull rain showers across the region as well. But then, temps gradually meander upward into the 80s for highs by Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Deviations include minor hourly adjustment to jarring 6 hour jumps/changes in NBM PPI01 PoPs. Ended up deleting and interpolating a couple hours worth of data at the 18 and 00Z hours to take the jarring hourly changes out of the forecast for better hourly trends Friday.

GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0400Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions with scattered low clouds tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop around 18Z through the afternoon and diminish after 03Z. MVFR conditions are possible where heavier rain occurs.

WINDS: W to NW at 5 to 10 kts tonight. increasing to 10 to 15 gust 20 kts Thursday afternoon. calming to 10 kts or less Thursday evening through the night.

/GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.