textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect until 8pm this evening for Fort Peck Lake due to gusty west winds.

- Thunderstorm chances look to continue at times through the 4th of July holiday weekend. A few storms could be strong to severe starting on July 2. - Temperatures will gradually warm to near normal by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Lingering showers and isolated thunder will diminish this evening along with the gusty west winds. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM for Fort Peck Lake.

Weak ridging will set up behind the departing low for Wednesday, though the trough over the western U.S. will prevail in the days ahead as that downstream ridge flattens, leaving southwest upper flow over eastern Montana for Thursday into the 4th of July weekend. This will mean a general warming trend in temperatures, but a continuation of shower and thunderstorm chances.

Ensembles continue to suggest a stronger ridge for next week with a new surge in temperatures and perhaps a break from precipitation.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Tweaks to pops were made for the short term for consistency and collaboration. Otherwise stayed the course with NBM for this forecast cycle reflecting high confidence in warmer but unsettled weather for the coming days. Confidence is more moderate on precipitation amounts given the scattered nature of thunderstorms and predictability at larger time scales.

AVIATION

UPDATED: 1915z Tuesday June 30th

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR prevailing with temporary reductions possible.

DISCUSSION: Scattered showers and isolated thunder may briefly reduce visibility before 03z. Then, mainly dry weather is expected tonight.

WINDS: West at 20 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts through about 02Z, then diminishing to under 10 kts.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.