textproduct: Glasgow

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A High Wind Warning remains in effect through 8 AM Tuesday for Phillips County.

2) Above normal temperatures and dry weather are expected to persist into the midweek.

3) Gusty northwest winds are expected once again on Thursday afternoon and evening.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper level ridging will maintain mild and dry weather conditions over the region through the middle of the week. For southwest portions of the CWA, elevated fire concerns are possible with low relative humidity and gusty west winds over areas with bare ground and no snowpack. The High Wind Warning continues until 8 AM on Tuesday for Phillips County. High resolution models show this expanding to the east this afternoon. NAM shows 70 kt winds at 850mb and GFS shows 50 to 60 kts across the area over the same time frame. That said, ample high and mid level cloudiness are limiting full mixing and so much of the region remains in an inversion. A few hours of partial sun and gusty winds cannot be ruled out this afternoon or early evening but confidence remains below average for these more northeastern locations, especially valleys.

The next shortwave will drop down on northwest flow aloft with a dry surface cold front on Thursday. Expect strong northwest winds as a result Thursday afternoon and evening with cooler temperatures to follow, though remaining near to above normal for this time of year.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM was blended with NBM 90 for winds though confidence on high wind remains highest over Phillips County where a High Wind Warning continues. Cloudiness and an inversion seem to be providing protective roles elsewhere across NE Montana for now. Otherwise confidence remains moderate to high for mild and dry weather through the midweek with the next round of gusty winds for Thursday given great ensemble support.

AVIATION

UPDATED: 2130Z

FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR

DISCUSSION: Mid to high level clouds will continue across area terminals today, otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected.

Wind: West at 10 to 20 kts with occasional higher gusts through tonight.

LLWS: Shear possible at times through tonight with low level inversion.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Tuesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Northern Phillips-Southwest Phillips.