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DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES: - Periods of strong west winds beginning tonight, moving eastward, continuing through Thursday.

- Seasonably warm temperatures and mostly drier weather expected through Wednesday.

- Chances for wintry precipitation beginning Wednesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

General zonal pattern across the CONUS through the week with occasional shortwaves moving through the fast westerly flow. Chinook continues today with very shallow inversion over eastern Montana eroding. Still expect temperatures to be slower to mix out of the river valleys today. Shortwave moving across the Canadian Rockies will detach the lee side low and push it east tonight. Cold air advection following the low will work southward, providing additional mixing, especially across central Montana. Thus have upgraded the High Wind Watch to Warning for Phillips County tonight.

Chinook redevelops on Tuesday as a much stronger shortwave approaches the Pacific Northwest. This wave moves through the northern Rockies on Wednesday, bringing an Alberta clipper across the northern Plains. Strong winds again expected, along with precipitation chances. A mix of precipitation types are possible with the clipper.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Blended NBM and NBM90 for the winds tonight into Tuesday morning.

AVIATION

VFR. Dry weather and mostly clear skies through the TAF cycle.

LLWS will be present over or in the vicinity of all TAF sites for a majority of the TAF cycle with a very shallow inversion and strong winds above the inversion.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Tuesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Northern Phillips-Southwest Phillips.