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KEY MESSAGES

- Strong chinook winds continue at times with a High Wind Warning for the Little Rockies through early this morning.

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Friday with some records challenged.

- Temperatures will cool closer to normal this weekend.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A chinook pattern over the area has allowed strong to intense winds to come up since early Tuesday and persist tonight around the Little Rockies. Based on latest trends and HREF guidance, the High Wind Warning for SW Phillips county has been extended again until 6 AM Wednesday with persistent winds over 40 mph and gusts around 60 mph. Gusts of 40-50 mph continue to be likely with this chinook for the next few days, but probabilities are currently low for high winds being realized again. A weak stationary front is expected to make its way into the area this morning, so there are chances for rain showers between 6 AM and 3 PM. Rain amounts look minimal, less than a few hundredths.

Most snow has already melted from the recent snowstorm, though small streams (Petroleum county in particular) will need to be closely monitored for high water and flooding concerns. The broad upper level ridge in place remains into Friday before starting to break down, maintaining the unusual warm and dry pattern. The next chance for any light precipitation will be over the weekend along with a moderation in temperatures.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviations were made to increase the chinook winds though Thursday for some locations by blending with some higher resolution guidance. Along with this, temperatures were nudged up close to the NBM 50th percentile through Friday.

There is moderate to high confidence for gusty winds to remain below high wind criteria the rest of the week. There is high confidence in temperatures through the weekend.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0500Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

DISCUSSION: Some chinook mid to high level clouds are expected to continue moving through the area today into tonight. A weak stationary front is expected to creep into the area tomorrow morning, so there is a slight chance for rain showers between 12Z and 21Z. There is moderate to high confidence that VFR ceilings will remain in place though.

LLWS: Northwesterly low level wind shear is expected across the terminals until around 16Z, returning after 01Z.

WIND: West at 10-15 knots, becoming 15-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots after 17Z.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Southwest Phillips.