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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry weather will continue through Thursday with temperatures remaining below normal.
- Warmer temperatures will return for Friday and highs pushing back into the 70s across NE Montana by Saturday.
DISCUSSION
A closed low will track well south of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Meanwhile during this same time period a shortwavce trough will track southeast from Canada into the Dakotas along the northern branch of this split flow regime with a cold front. This will bring gusty northwest winds to NE Montana on Thursday though precipitation chances will remain to the east with that wave.
On Friday, NBM begins to advance an upper ridge across the western U.S. as the closed low becomes aborbed by a deepening trough across the central CONUS. This will lend to warm and dry conditions for the CWA Friday into Saturday, as highs return to the 70s as the weekend gets underway. The next cold front will approach on Saturday evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM was used for the forecast cycle with little in the way of deviations this time around due to an overall benign weather pattern aside from consistency adjustments for collaboration with surrounding offices.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0545Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR to prevail, MVFR/IFR possible in fog.
Discussion: Dry weather will lend to excellent flying conditions overnight save for patchy fog and low stratus across area terminals, mainly early Wednesday morning. Winds: Light and variable winds will become south to southwest after 18Z Wednesday.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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