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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Look for dry and increasingly mild conditions through Wednesday.

- Chances for precipitation and moderation in temperatures return starting Thursday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging is beginning to build over the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains, nudging temperatures upward through Wednesday to above normal levels for early March. The large scale subsidence also allows for mostly dry weather conditions for the next several days.

By Thursday as the ridge flattens and translates east, a more dynamic split flow pattern will emerge over the western CONUS. Ensemble consensus begins to decline at these later time stages, but early signs point to temperatures lowering to near normal, increased chances for precipitation and windy conditions at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The base forecast was used for the forecast period, with the exception of some near term edits to add resolution for winds. There is high confidence in the pattern through midweek for relatively warm and dry weather, before model solutions diverge to give slightly lower than average confidence late in the week.

-JEZ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0630Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR, returning to VFR.

DISCUSSION: Areas that saw fresh snow this weekend have some patchy low stratus development that has resulted in periods of MVFR ceilings for the TAF sites. After 15Z, these areas will become more isolated as skies become mostly clear overall.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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