textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 9 pm Friday evening. - Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and continuing tonight. A few storms could become severe with damaging winds.

- A High Wind Warning is in effect starting at 4 pm this afternoon in the west and 9 pm this evening in the east and continues through midnight Thursday night. Strong west winds are expected behind a cold front tonight and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Strong southeast winds and low humidity are contributing to critical fire weather conditions through 9 pm this evening across most of the CWA. A cold front moving east across the CWA tonight are triggering showers/thunderstorms across central Montana this afternoon. These storms will contain strong wind gusts with speeds up to 80 mph! But with a very dry sub-cloud atmosphere in place, they will struggle to sustain themselves, but very strong dynamics will keep them going albeit with little rainfall in most places. The cold front will move into the western zones this evening, then exit into North Dakota late tonight/early Friday.

A High Wind Warning is in place for both the convective winds anticipated later today and synoptic winds expected Thursday.

With the sustained winds being higher than the Min RH for most of Thursday and Friday, extended the Red Flag Warning into Friday evening. NASA Greenness maps were showing greenness in the SW zones, but to keep things simple, decided to include them in this expansion.

Cooler air will move into the area on Thursday as well. Expect it remain in place through the weekend as another upper trough moves in. Scattered showers may occur but a steady rain is not expected with the upper lows mainly to our north.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No deviations were made.

There is high confidence in windy conditions tonight and Thursday. TFJ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 2200Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: A strong cold front will be moving into the TAF sites later this evening, bringing a sudden shift in winds from SE or S to West. This is expected to happen around 02z at KGGW to around 08Z at KSDY.

Cloud levels will remain VFR with little if any precipitation. If showers are in the area, they will make winds gusty and erratic in the vicinity.

Thursday, winds will become West or Northwest at 25 to 35 kts with gusts to 50 kts, diminishing a bit Thursday night then increasing slightly Friday. TFJ

EQUIPMENT: No obs from KSDY. TAF will be AMD NOT SKED until obs return.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Friday for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.

High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Thursday night for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield- Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Southwest Phillips.

High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-McCone-Prairie- Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.