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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Persistent southeast winds likely to continue through Monday night. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Fort Peck Lake.
- Light rain is possible along the Yellowstone River from Terry to Sidney and points southeast at times Monday.
- Confidence is growing on more widespread rainfall by Tuesday into Wednesday, specific amount remains an open question.
DISCUSSION
Sustained winds have been approaching 30 mph with gusts near 40 mph across Fort Peck Lake overnight. Hi res models have more persistent east to southeast winds across NE Montana than the NBM, guiding through Tuesday morning. Thus, have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake. Secondarily, look for isolated showers over the SE zones on Monday as low pressure tracks well south and east of the region, though cloud cover will extend area wide.
Ensembles show an upper trough extending east into the middle of the week, leading to increasing chances for rainfall. QPF forecasts have trended lower this cycle, but remain between a 0.10" and 0.25" over most areas. Look for lesser amounts toward the MT/ND border.
Aside from occasional precipitation chances, below average temperatures will also take the stage through most of this week.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM was focused for most elements this forecast cycle, though a little blend toward high resolution mesoscale models was implemented for near term winds in support of the Fort Peck Lake Wind Advisory and consistent with trending observations for those surrounding areas. Otherwise, confidence remains above average on cool and unsettled weather for the middle of the week, though uncertainty remains on specific amounts.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: Monday October 26, 2026 at 0515Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, becoming MVFR.
DISCUSSION: VFR is expected initially at area terminals, though ceilings will lower today as low pressure tracks southeast of the region. This may bring isolated showers to KSDY to KGDV today, but the more predominant impact will be IFR to MVFR stratatus, which may reach into KGGW and KOLF as well. WIND: East to southeast at 10 to 20 kts, gusting to 30 kts.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM MDT Tuesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.
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