textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- There is an opportunity for showers and storms occurring through 6 AM Monday. Then again after 2 PM Monday. Isolated showers and storms are possible again Tuesday into Wednesday.

- An upper ridge is expected to warm temperatures up a bit after Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A shortwave trough and surface stationary front is providing enough forcing for showers and weak storms to occur in the southeast part of the area. This weak forcing will continue to keep this activity around through 12Z. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through tomorrow after for a similar situation to today. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible tomorrow afternoon, with that probability being around 5 percent. The highest amounts are expected to be about one tenth of an inch of rain with localized areas up to a quarter inch in thunderstorms through tomorrow evening. A passing Manitoba trough is expected to influence the area on Tuesday and the east on Wednesday. An upper ridge will begin building after that to bring warmer temperatures (highs in the 70s and upper 80s) according to the latest GFS and ECMWF ensembles.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Main deviations to the NBM were to spread pops across a larger area today through tomorrow evening.

There is high confidence in scattered showers and storms occurring through about 6 AM Monday, then a break, and then isolated to scattered storms after 3 PM in the west, and after 5 PM Monday over the whole area. There is low confidence in any storms being severe.

There is high confidence in high temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s by Thursday.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1841Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, MVFR in thunderstorms and heavy showers.

DISCUSSION: A weak trough is allowing for showers and weak thunderstorms near KSDY and KGDV currently, which is giving moderate potential for MVFR conditions. There is high confidence (80 percent) of scattered showers and storms continuing through about 12Z, so MVFR conditions are possible until then. As daytime heating happens tomorrow with the area being on the edge of a trough, thunderstorms are expected to occur after about 21Z. There is low confidence (30 percent) of a few of these storms being strong (gusty winds and hail), and a low chance (5 percent) of them being severe.

WINDS: South at 6 to 12 kts, becoming light and variable after 01Z, becoming northwest at 6 to 12 knots after 18Z.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.