textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow is slowly coming to an end in the southeast part of the area. There is a brief chance for isolated showers and storms on Tuesday afternoon.

- Unsettled weather pattern and chances for rain through Thursday.

- Much warmer and drier to end the week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper level trough remains over western Montana and a surface high pressure system is trying to push south into the area. Snow showers are slowly coming to an end in the southeast part of the area. The surface high is expected to push just far enough northward tomorrow to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms for a few locations, especially in the western half of the area.

The overall trough is expected to remain over the area through Thursday with a chance for precipitation in central Montana on Wednesday. After Friday there is very little model agreement on the placement of troughing in the SW, which will determine how a possible Pacific shortwave (and moisture) and subsequent influx of colder, Canadian air will impact NE MT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Increased PoPs for Tuesday afternoon manually, and increased winds tonight and on Tuesday to NBM 90 levels.

There is low to moderate confidence of any one location seeing thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon.

There is high confidence in temperatures through day 3.

There is moderate confidence in precipitation amounts remaining below one tenth of an inch through Saturday.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1900Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR for KGDV through 21Z, then VFR all sites. Brief MVFR with any thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION: Light snow has just about diminished across the area as the surface high pressure system pushes into northeast Montana. The upper trough remains overhead, so there is an opportunity for rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm on Tuesday afternoon. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with these storms.

WIND: Light and variable becoming southeast at 6 to 16 knots for KOLF and KGGW after 04Z. For KSDY and KGDV, north at 8 to 15 knots becoming light and variable after 02Z Tuesday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.