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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather will continue into Thursday night with temps remaining at or above seasonable norms as well.

- Precipitation chances ramp up Friday and Friday night. - Cooler and drier weather expected for the weekend, with that continuing into early next week.

DISCUSSION

A fairly large upper low off the California coast will keep an induced ridge to its east, allowing NE MT to experience dry conditions and warmer than normal temps through Friday.

But the upper low will merge with southern oriented jet stream and move into Montana Friday. This will pull up pacific moisture from the Desert SW while a surface low developing over southern MT pulls NE tracking showers across the CWA through Saturday morning. This will also allow NW winds to increase late Friday behind a cold front. The showers are expected to exit the CWA Saturday with significantly cooler high temps Saturday onward.

Rough conditions on Fort Peck Lake can be expected beginning Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Check the forecast if you have plans to visit the area later this week.

Rainfall amounts still look to be greatest over the NW half of the CWA with the total amount expected to be around a quarter inch or less.

Beyond Saturday, temps look to remain below normal as an upper ridge early next week doen't nudge east of the Pac NW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes to NBM.

Confidence is High through Thursday night.

Confidence is Moderate Friday through Saturday night.

Confidence is low from Sunday onward as ensembles go out of phase.

TFJ/GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0400Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

LLWS: There is a chance(40-60%) for low level wind shear Wednesday night from 03Z to 10Z for KOLF, KSDY, and KGDV.

DISCUSSION: Clear, dry, and quiet conditions are expected to continue through Thursday.

WIND: Light and variable through the morning. Becoming SE and increasing to 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon. Then calming to 10- kts or less Wednesday night.

TFJ/GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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