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KEY MESSAGES

- Intermittent snow showers along with west wind gusts to 50 mph are expected to continue at times tonight, with gradual improvements on Saturday. Isolated quarter mile visibility is possible at times through this evening.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until noon Saturday for much of NE Montana with a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake until 1pm Saturday.

- Additional chances for rain and snow Sunday and Monday are expected before a gradual warm up and drying trend by late next week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Satellite observations show a nice comma head presentation across southern portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan, extending south into northern Montana. Underneath this satellite presentation are scattered snow showers and strong west winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph, gusting to 50 mph. The combination of snow and strong winds is leading to visibility reductions as low as quarter mile at times, especially along the Canadian border. So far, it has not persisted enough for upgrade decisions, though did strengthen the language in going headlines. This evening, as the sun goes down it will be interesting to see if snow accumulates better, and whether persistent winds leads to persistent deteriorating conditions. As this system gradually pulls away, expect conditions to improve on Saturday. Will let the Winter Weather Advisory and the Lake Wind Advisory ride for the time being.

Isolated brief blizzard conditions cannot be ruled out at times, especially this evening.

For Sunday and Monday, cooler temperatures and continued rain and snow showers appear likely as additional shortwaves track through the upper flow. Ensemble means suggest QPF generally favored as 0.10" or less however, and winds should be lighter.

Tuesday into late next week, expect a very gradual uptick in temperatures, returning to near normal by Thursday or Friday as conditions also dry out.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Winds were adjusted over the next 24 hours to blend NBM90 to account for gusts occurring on the higher end of the guidance envelope. Given the strength of the low pressure system in proximity, these winds are likely to persist into tonight before gradually relaxing on Saturday. Confidence remains high on the cold, windy, and snowy conditions continuing therefore. However, given the complexities of thermal profiles, intermittent nature, among other factors, confidence is below average on exact snowfall amounts and location. That said, the big picture with cold,snow, and wind continuing to drive impacts remains a solid anticipation.

Confidence is growing on a gradual uptick in temperatures by late week with a drying trend, though there is notable spread in the synoptic pattern depicted among various cluster families. As the longer range enters the near term, ensembles should show a tightening, lending to increased certainty on the timing and details of any warm up or more prolonged dry period.

AVIATION

UPDATED: Friday April 24, 2026 at 1915Z.

FLIGHT CONDITION: Ranging VFR to IFR, brief LIFR possible.

DISCUSSION: Intermittent snow showers combined with gusty west winds will continue to cause a variety of impacts to area terminals. Ceilings will remain mostly VFR or high MVFR overall. That said, visibility may drop below 1 mile at times in steady snow showers combined with gusty west winds, especially tonight. Brief 1/4 mile visibility cannot be ruled out. Gradual improvement is expected for Saturday. WIND: West to West Northwest at 20 to 35 kts, gusting to 45 kts at times. Winds will gradually diminish to between 15 and 25 kts, gusting to 35 kts by 12Z Saturday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 1 PM MDT Saturday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Saturday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson- Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt.