textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow is expected to diminish this evening into the early overnight. Winter Weather Advisories continue in most areas into this afternoon, with a Winter Storm Warning continuing over Wibaux County through 6 AM Saturday. - A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect 3 PM Saturday to midnight Sunday morning for Fort Peck Lake. A period of precipitation is expected tomorrow afternoon in the east. A Lake Wind Advisory will most likely be needed on Monday and Tuesday as well.

- Cool weather is expected this weekend with a brief warmup on Tuesday. Then a cold front will move through to bring cooler weather and precipitation chances again.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A strong upper shortwave trough and surface low will track east into North Dakota, so rain and snow chances will gradually end from west to east through 6 AM Saturday. Up to two inches of snow are expected with the remaining Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warning. The best opportunity for accumulating snow is in the far southeast part of the area.

Based on HREF guidance, there appears to be enough evidence to support gusts as high as 35 mph on Fort Peck Lake tomorrow afternoon and evening. The HRRR, HRWFV3, and NAMNEST indicate a passing shower and/or snow shower from 5 PM Saturday to around midnight Saturday across the eastern part of the area. Less than 0.02 inches of precipitation are forecast for that time period.

Temperatures are expected to be around the average mark for Saturday through Monday. There are some silent PoPs for Sunday into Monday in the southwest part of the area, so future HREF guidance will likely indicate a chance for rain and snow in that area. Any precipitation that falls will likely be light. Then a brief rise above normal on Tuesday is expected before another cold front comes through on Tuesday night. This is when the next opportunity for precipitation comes in. There is a decent chance of rain and snow chances occurring through the end of the week for various locations across the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Made deviations to increase the PoPs through 12Z Saturday, and increase winds for Fort Peck Lake for tomorrow evening.

Confidence is HIGH on rain and snow occurring 00Z Saturday, with low to moderate confidence from 00Z to 12Z Saturday, and then moderate confidence of precipitation occurring across the eastern part of the area on Saturday evening.

There is moderate to high confidence on wind gusts reaching 30 mph on Fort Peck Lake from 3 PM Saturday to midnight Sunday.

There is high confidence of a Lake Wind Advisory being needed on Monday for southeast winds and Tuesday for northwest winds.

Confidence is HIGH on a warm up for Tuesday and precipitation occurring, with low confidence on precipitation amounts. There is moderate confidence on precipitation occurring after Tuesday night.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1900Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR - LIFR, then MVFR after 13Z Saturday, then VFR after 18Z Saturday.

DISCUSSION: A strong shortwave trough will continue to bring chances for precipitation in the form of rain and snow through tonight, as well as low clouds. There is moderate to high confidence of MVFR to LIFR conditions occurring through 06Z Saturday. There is high confidence of conditions becoming IFR from 06Z to 12Z, then MVFR from 12Z to 18Z, and then VFR after 18Z as the trough moves east of the area.

WIND: North northeast 5 to 15 knots becoming light and variable after 03Z, becoming northwest at 10 to 19 knots after 18Z Saturday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for Central and Southeast Phillips-Northern Phillips-Southwest Phillips.

Lake Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone- Northern Valley-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Dawson- Prairie-Richland.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for Wibaux.