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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms today through tomorrow night.
- Upper low will bring gusty west winds tomorrow and Monday.
- A ridge is expected for Monday and Tuesday before the next chance of precipitation arrives on Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SW flow aloft will be over Montana today as the upper ridge moves east and upper trough/low moves inland from the Pacific.
The SW flow aloft will bring increasing moisture and instability into NE Montana today with chances for showers and thunderstorms developing across the region. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue at times tonight.
The upper low moves into Montana Sunday morning> A cold front will move through eastern Montana during the day on Sunday with showers and thunderstorms at times. West winds behind the cold front Sunday afternoon may be strong enough for a Lake Wind Advisory over Fort Peck Lake. SPC has a Marginal Risk over most of the forecast area for severe weather on Sunday with damaging winds being the main threat.
The upper low moves into Alberta and Saskatchewan Sunday night with most of Montana moving into a dry slot. The upper low will be over Saskatchewan on Monday with the dry slot and gusty west winds over the forecast area. A Lake Wind Advisory is likely for Fort Peck Lake on Monday.
High pressure moves into the area Monday night with diminishing winds and upper ridge will bring dry weather with warmer temperatures on Tuesday.
SW flow aloft is expected Wednesday and beyond with an upper trough/low over the Pacific NW and and upper ridge to the east.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Only deviation to NBM was to tweak PoPs today through Sunday.
There is high confidence that there will be showers and thunderstorms at times this afternoon, tonight and Sunday with low confidence in timing and precipitation amounts.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1845Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, MVFR in thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION: An oncoming upper trough will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms from 21Z through about 06Z Sunday. The trough axis will swing through tomorrow, so scattered showers and storms will start up again after 16Z.
WINDS: Variable winds around 10 knots becoming northwest at 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots after 17Z Sunday.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM MDT Sunday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.
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