textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures continue though at least Friday with highs in the 90s to 105 degrees. - Gusty southeast winds each afternoon through Thursday will lead to critical fire weather in areas of dry fuels and a hazard to small craft on Fort Peck Lake.

- The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives this weekend with the best chances west of Highway 24.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Afternoon temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s and low 100s through Friday as an omega block/upper ridge is in place over the northern Plains. Nighttime temperatures will also be warm. All temps are expected to challenge records.

Later today and Thursday... convective precip will be confined to the far western part of the CWA. There is critical fire weather, strong winds over Fort Peck Lake, and intense heat over the area to continue at least part of the area through Friday, so various weather products have been issued for all these hazards.

For Saturday, an upper low will move in from the southwest. High PWAT values (1 to 1.3 inches) are expected over the area, so thunderstorms that occur this day will be prone to heavy downpours. But hail cannot be ruled out, so some could be severe as well with the upper levels cooling a bit.

Sunday, the models are struggling a bit on the upper low, so it could be a repeat of Saturday in terms of showers and thunderstorms, with wetter conditions likely over the W or NW zones.

With the abundant clouds and showers, and a Canadian airmass moving in on west winds, daytime temperatures will be cooler Sunday.

Things will dry out a tad Monday but scattered showers will remain through mid week. Temperatures will remain near normal.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Only deviation was to increase hourly PoPs across the west late this afternoon and evening and again late Thursday, blending with SREF and using the online HREF as guidance.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high through Friday. Rainfall amounts Saturday are low to moderate, but low on Sunday. Future model runs will likely get more specific on the upper low's placement and thus confidence will increase.

There is HIGH confidence in the Red Flag Warnings, the Heat Advisories, and the Lake Wind Advisory products.

TFJ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 2150Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: High-based afternoon cumulus clouds will gradually clear this evening then rebuild again Thursday.

DENSITY ALTITUDE: Afternoons through Friday with 95 - 105 degree temps.

LLWS: Some low level wind shear will be possible across the terminals from 08-15Z due to low level jet across the region.

WIND: Southeast at 10 to 15 gust 25 kts through the overnight hours. Increasing to 15 to 25 gust 35 kts in the afternoon hours.

EQUIPMENT: KSDY obs are unavailable online and will be AMD NOT SKED.

TFJ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 10 PM MDT Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley- Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM MDT Friday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Thursday for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.