textproduct: Glasgow

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Upper ridging will help provide warm and dry weather conditions through this afternoon for NE Montana.

- As the ridge slides east hot temperatures will turn hotter with highs by into the mid 80s to low 90s today and Friday.

- Hit-and-miss thunderstorm chances look to increase for Thursday evening into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A wave of showers and thunderstorms is expected to enter the CWA around 5PM and move through tonight along a quasi-lee side mountain trough. There is an initial chance for a downburst or severe wind gust as they enter Phillips, Petroleum, or Valley county but most significant threats should be gone by about 8-9PM. Showers activity should exit into the Dakotas by mid-morning Friday.

Another set of shortwave troughs are expected on Friday afternoon and then Saturday through Sunday. These may have a bit more rain in them. The more significant trough is expected to make its way in this weekend, but mesoscale details are up in the air with both these features as HREF Ensembles are varying widely in their form.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Only deviation to NBM was to PoPs Friday afternoon, as NBM had 0% PoP over most of the area and HREF member details have scattered to isolated storms.

Confidence in synoptic features are moderate to high through Sunday then moderate to low beyond. Most meso-scale features wash out after tonight.

/GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0430Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR.

DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will continue to keep precipitation from occurring through most of today. There is low probability of thunderstorms reaching KGGW after 01Z Friday as a shortwave trough tries to move in from the west. These storms look to be dying as they reach the Valley/Garfield county line. So, MVFR conditions are possible, but not likely.

WINDS: SE at 5 to 15 kts through the cycle. Gusts to 25 kts in the afternoon. erratic gusty winds will be possible near any thunderstorm.

EQUIPMENT: KSDY AWOS is down. Site will remain "AMD NOT SKED" till it is fixed.

/GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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