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DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES: - A High Wind Warning remains in effect for all of northeast Montana through 3 AM.

- A Blizzard Warning has been issued for a portion of the area late this afternoon and tonight for areas of whiteout conditions from falling/blowing snow.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for sharply colder conditions in far NE Montana tonight bringing wind chills as low as 30 below. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A widespread, long duration high wind event across the region will continue through last tonight. A deep surface low pressure system dropping southeast is bringing dangerous and destructive winds as high as 40 to 50 mph, with gusts exceeding 80 mph. After an initial push earlier this afternoon, a sharp cold frontal passage from the northwest will bring concerns additional winter weather concerns. Whiteout conditions from falling and blowing snow and wind chills as low as 30 below are expected tonight.

While snowfall amounts are not expected to be much more than 1-2", the persistent strong winds can easily lead to periods of white out conditions. The highest forecast snow amounts of 2-3" near the Canadian border and Big Sheeps will enhance blowing snow potential with some of the worst conditions expected in exposed, elevated areas. To the south where there is under an inch of snow forecasted, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for more limited blowing snow. Travel during all this time will be particularly dangerous with the combined wind, cold and snow/visibility hazards, especially for high profile vehicles.

The strong winds will quickly diminish tomorrow morning with a warming trend through Friday. The next chance for light mixed precipitation comes with this transition tomorrow night into Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Blended HRRR for winds in short term day 1 before the frontal passage. Increased day 1 winds, and 88% NBM90 for wind gusts.

Today through tonight precip and temperatures: High confidence. Tomorrow through the weekend temperatures: Moderate confidence. Tomorrow through the weekend precip: Moderate confidence.

AVIATION

UPDATED: 2200Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR-MVFR, then areas LIFR-VLIFR after 00Z

DISCUSSION: Through the evening 30-40 kts sustained and gusts up to 70 kts out of the west. Between 00Z and 12Z tonight falling and blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility and drifting across runways. Periods of extreme cold at or near TAF sites begin after 12Z.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson- Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Southwest Phillips- Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Garfield-Prairie-Southwest Phillips-Wibaux.

Blizzard Warning until 6 AM MST Thursday for Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt.

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM MST Thursday for Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Eastern Roosevelt-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Richland-Sheridan- Western Roosevelt.