textproduct: Glasgow
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Typical mid to late August conditions are expected through the weekend with warm daytime conditions and comfortable nights.
- Beginning this afternoon, the southwest monsoonal flow will bring another risk of thunderstorms to the region.
- Warm and dry conditions resume next week as the western ridge rebounds.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge over the northern Rockies will begin to slide east today in response to a trough pushing into the Pacific Northwest.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight as the ridge axis moves east and a weak shortwave pushes through the ridge. Monsoonal moisture to begin streaming into eastern Montana and with high PWATs possible, some of the storms could produce heavy rain. The Pacific NW trough will knock down the ridge on Sunday with another round of storms. These storms could pull down stronger winds aloft for a marginal severe risk. Southeast winds will also be increasing today ahead of the disturbance that will make conditions on Fort Peck Lake hazardous. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect from noon today to 3 AM Sunday.
Ridge rebounds early next week in the wake of the departing trough to bring dry conditions with temperatures slightly above normal.
Fire weather is expected to be quiet as humidity will be on the rise with winds this weekend. Otherwise, winds are expected to decrease after the weekend and be generally light through the next seven days.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Added NBM90 to the winds for the Lake Wind period. Confidence for timing of precipitation chances over the weekend are moderate with poor continuity from forecast runs.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0900Z
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR
DISCUSSION: Quiet weather conditions are generally expected through the TAF cycle. As a disturbance moves in from the southwest today, southeast winds will increase with scattered showers/thunderstorms overnight into Sunday evening.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 3 AM MDT Sunday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.
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