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KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler weather to continue today along with patchy fog, and scattered rain and snow showers. The most concentrated precipitation chances will be along and north of the Missouri River to the Canadian border with coverage more isolated to the south.

- Temperatures look to rebound for Monday and Tuesday to near seasonable averages.

- Additional rain chances look to resume late Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler temperatures late week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

COoler temperatures in place will be accompanied by additional rain and snow showers today along with patchy fog. Most action should be north of the Missouri River to the Canadian border. HREF actually shows a few hours of quarter to half inch snowfall rates across Northern Valley, Daniels, and Sheridan Counties late this morning. To the south of the Missouri River, patchy fog and precipitation chances are kept but coverage will be more spotty.

Temperatures will rebound on Monday and Tuesday before the next embedded upper shortwaves approach on flattening flow aloft - resulting in additional precipitation chances in the form of scattered rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could mix with snow. There has been some recent discussion on elevated fire weather concerns for Wednesday given expected low humidity readings in the west and gusty winds. However, preliminary thinking is that cloud cover and light precipitation chances may preclude critical conditions. That said, will continue to follow - any precipitation amounts are expected to be light.

Late in the week, ensembles continue to show cooler temperatures and drier weather return, but a significant upper ridge is of note over the western CONUS that looks to be waiting in the wings.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

The forecast was nudged for winds today with additional NBM90 weighting. Otherwise NBM was largely followed, capturing the broad synoptic expectations rather well. Confidence continues above average on fluctuating temperatures in a progressive pattern in the week ahead, with occasional light precipitation chances dependent on shortwave tracks. That said, confidence remains a bit below average on exact timing or location of precipitation. As noted, there are also some precipitation type issues to work out at times as well over the Tuesday night into Wednesday period.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: Sunday March 22 at 0700Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR - IFR

DISCUSSION: Low stratus will maintain MVFR to IFR ceilings across area terminals today while patchy fog and light rain and snow showers reduce visibility at times.

WIND: Light and variable winds early morning will become south and southwest at 5 to 10 kts by about 16Z. Winds will continue switching to the west then northwest by the afternoon hours, ranging from 10 to 20 kts.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.