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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry conditions will continue throughout the day. Winds remain light and variable but are expected to increase in the afternoon.
- Chances of widespread showers return later in the week, moving in Thursday night and exiting over the weekend. 0.50" to 1.00" amounts are possible in the eastern zones.
DISCUSSION
SYNOPTIC SETUP:
A ridge is building over the Northern Rockies and will gradually shift east into the CWA, bringing warmer and drier conditions across Northeast Montana. Temperatures are expected to rise into the mid- to-upper 60s into the 70s through Friday before a deepening trough ejects eastward into the region. Winds are expected to increase out of the east tonight going into Wednesday morning and afternoon.
The next disturbance is developing over the Pacific Northwest and will continue to drop south into northern California Wednesday and Thursday before ejecting northeast into the Northern Rockies late Thursday into Friday. Increasing moisture and lift should support chances for widespread showers and possible thunderstorms going into the weekend. Heading into Monday, models are showing the low pressure to cut-off and drift eastward out of the CWA.
Rainfall totals could approach between 0.50" to 1.00" in eastern portions of the CWA, while places in the western zones could see around a quarter of an inch or below. Possible thunderstorms can produce locally heavier rainfall.
Ensembles for next week are showing some drying and slightly warmer temps.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- Confidence in rain chances this weekend are moderate. There is a higher confidence in rainfall chances across the eastern zones of the CWA. Less confidence moving further into western zones.
- Confidence in rainfall totals remain somewhat low as models are still uncertain on where the highest rainfall totals set up.
KENZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1657Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: VFR conditions are expected to remain throughout the day with ceilings above 3000 ft AGL. MFVR conditions are likely to return Wednesday afternoon as some low level clouds move into the northern part of the region.
SFC WIND: Northwest winds remain light and variable through this afternoon, then transition to east winds by 21Z. Then, winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots between 03Z and 12Z Wednesday.
KENZ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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