textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- A Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake will be extended until 6 pm today.

- Additional chances for rain and snow Sunday and Monday are expected mainly in the SE half of the CWA.

- A slow warm up and drying trend is expected starting Tuesday and continuing for several days.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Satellite and radar observations this morning show a low pressure center over southern Saskatchewan with radar echos from snow showers slowly trending downward. This is expected to continue as the low pressure center slowly fills in over the next 48 hours and winds down. However, the cold air center does look like it will remains over Saskatchewan and eastern Montana through Tuesday before exiting to the east. West to NW winds will remain strong enough today to extend the Lake Wind Advisory until 6 pm this afternoon. Isolated snow showers will continue at times today with little or no accumulation. Will cancel the Winter Weather Advisory.

For Sunday and Monday a shortwave and slug of pacific moisture passes over the cold air allowing new rain and snow showers to appear likely across the region while the cold air remains. Ensemble means suggest QPF generally favored as 0.15" or less with the current focus being across the southeast half of the CWA. Models and ensembles differ at this point on how much of the precipitation will be rain versus how much of it will be snow. NBM and GFS ensembles have little or no snow accumulation while the EC ensembles have up to 3 inches of snow along and east of the Big Sheep Mountains from the system.

Tuesday into late next week, expect a very gradual uptick in temperatures, returning to near normal by Thursday or Friday as conditions also dry out.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviations from NBM were mainly focused on the next 9 hours of PoPs with the gradual skew down of hourly data being smoothed out a bit more to compensate for the showery nature of cells passing over.

Confidence is LOW in precipitation type Sunday, Sunday night and Monday in the SE part of the forecast area.

Confidence in HIGH in the rest of the bulk of the forecast.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0800Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR this morning, VFR this afternoon and tonight.

DISCUSSION: Isolated snow showers will continue today with gusty west to NW winds. Otherwise, look for low and mid level clouds this morning and mid level clouds with breaks this afternoon and tonight.

WIND: W to NW at 10 to 20 know with gusts to 30 knots today diminishing to 10 knots or less this evening and light and variable after midnight.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.