textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow continues this morning and diminishes from west to east this afternoon in most areas and in the southeast this evening. Winter Weather Advisories continue in most areas today with a Winter Storm Warning continuing over Wibaux County. - Snow accumulations through today range from 1 to 4 inches for most of NE Montana, with 2 to 5 inches across the Yellowstone River corridor from Terry to Sidney areas. 4 to 6 inches are expected for portions of Wibaux County.

- Cool and dry weather is expected this weekend with a brief warmup on Tuesday followed again by cooler temperatures Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Low pressure will continue tracking from Wyoming into the Dakotas as a snow continues early this morning over most of NE Montana this tonight. Snow will continue steady at times before ending west to east during the day today in most areas and along and east of the Yellowstone River tonight.

Much of NE Montana is expected to see a broad 1 to 4 inches of wet snowfall accumulation. Much of this accumulation will occur on grassy and elevated colder surfaces such as car tops or complex terrain such as the Little Rockies.

Along and east of the Yellowstone River corridor from Terry to Sidney, somewhat heavier snow is expected with 3 to 5 inches most likely. Wibaux County is closest to the low track, and can expect 4 to 6 inches with a Winter Storm Warning there remaining in place. Will maintain a Winter Weather Advisory over most of NE Montana today.

Bottom line, wintry conditions from a late season system will bring a variety of impacts to the region from snow covered roads, low visibility, and stress to newborn livestock.

Over the weekend, cooler and drier weather remain expected but ensembles show upper level ridging from the Pacific shore translating east over the Northern Rockies by early next week with milder temperatures expected, particularly by Tuesday which may have a more elevated fire weather conditions. A cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening will bring cooler temperatures on Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviations from NBM include the PoPs today were adjusted based on radar trends.

Confidence is HIGH on the snow today.

But confidence is MODERATE on specific amounts due to precipitation type issues, warm ground complications, and April sun angle playing mitigating factors.

Confidence is HIGH on a general warm up mainly on Tuesday with decent model consensus at larger time scales for now.

Confidence drops to MODERATE to LOW after Tuesday night frontal passage through the end of the forecast as ensembles begin to fray with each other from about this point on.

/GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0800Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR - LIFR today, VFR - MVFR tonight

DISCUSSION: MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected today with some LIFR ceilings possible. Snow will drop visibility to IFR and LIFR levels at times. Airport shutdown conditions cannot be ruled out. Conditions will improve beginning this afternoon at KGGW and KOLF and this evening KSDY and KGDV. MVFR level clouds are expected tonight with breaks in the clouds that will improve conditions to VFR at times. WIND: NE 5 to 10 knots this morning becoming north this afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected tonight.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for Central and Southeast Phillips-Northern Phillips-Southwest Phillips.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone- Northern Valley-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Dawson- Prairie-Richland.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for Wibaux.