textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures continue though at least Friday with highs in the 90s to around 100 degrees. - Gusty southeast winds starting Tuesday will lead to critical fire weather in areas of dry fuels and a hazard to small craft on Fort Peck Lake.

- After the isolated thunderstorms early this evening, the next chance arrives this weekend with the best chances west of Highway 24.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Afternoon temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s and low 100s through Friday as an upper ridge sets up from now through Friday. Nighttime temperatures will also be warm. All temps are expected to challenge records.

Isolated thunderstorms will hang around an area from the southeast zones to the north-central zones with movement parallel to that through about 9 or 10 pm. Winds and brief heavy rain will be the greatest threats.

There is a chance of thunderstorms like these in the southwest part of the area as well. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be similar to today, with most convection confined to the western part of the area though. There is critical fire weather, strong winds over Fort Peck Lake, and intense heat over the area the next few days, so various weather products have been issued for all these hazards.

For Saturday, high PWAT values (1 to 1.3 inches) are expected in the atmosphere over the area, so thunderstorms that occur this day will be prone to heavy downpours. So far, the deterministic GFS has these values dropping back down below one inch by Sunday afternoon. Overall, there are at least isolated thunderstorms possible each day through June 3rd, and temperatures will drop into the 70s and 80s for highs thankfully.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Only deviation was to increase PoPs to reflect CAMs through late this evening.

There is high confidence in hot temperatures (90 or above) through Friday for at least a few locations. Low temperatures will struggle to drop below the mid 60s as well, so adequate water intake will be important.

There is moderate confidence in thunderstorms bringing strong wind gusts to a few locations today, and low confidence for these type of gusts on Wednesday. There is moderate to high confidence in isolated to scattered thunderstorms occurring somewhere in the area from Friday through early June.

There is high confidence in the Red Flag Warnings, the Heat Advisories, and the Lake Wind Advisory products.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 2020Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, but small chance of MVFR at KOLF.

DISCUSSION: Isolated thunderstorms will bring erratic winds and possible brief MVFR conditions through 01Z Wednesday mainly at KOLF.

DENSITY ALTITUDE: Will be high due to near 100 degrees temps creating thinner air in the afternoons through Friday. Temperatures of 100-105 are expected to occur near KOLF.

WIND: Southeast at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots.

EQUIPMENT: KSDY obs are unavailable and will be AMD NOT SKED.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson- Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt- Wibaux.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson- Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.