textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cold front today will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. create a wide range in temperatures for highs today.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the east this afternoon and this evening. - Monday will be dry before an upper trough bring cool and wet weather for mid week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper low over the Pacific Northwest this morning will move through the northern Rockies today. A broader trough will remain over northwest states through midweek with another wave lifting through the region. Toward the end of the week, an upper ridge begins building off the west coast, but effects of the broad trough will linger as it moves toward the Great Lakes.

An upper wave lifts through the area this afternoon and tonight with a secondary cold front moving across the area during the day. Lingering instability will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms with severe storms possible again mainly near the North Dakota border where temperatures will be much warmer than in the west. Winds increase behind the front, and in combination with possible thunderstorm gusts, will keep a Lake Wind Advisory in effect for Fort Peck Lake from 3 pm to 9 pm today.

Shortwave ridge in SW flow aloft will allow for dry weather on Monday. Then, a broad upper trough moves into Montana on Tuesday and remains over the area on Wednesday with cool and wet weather. While the trough moves to the east on Thursday, an unstable NW flow aloft will keep cool wet weather going over the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue at times Friday and Saturday with an unstable NW flow aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

High confidence in the gusty NW winds this afternoon and evening. High confidence that showers and thunderstorms will occur at times today and this evening but low confidence in location and timing of specific storms. No changes from the NBM at this times.

AVIATION

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR with areas of MVFR today. VFR tonight.

DISCUSSION: There will be low and mid level clouds with breaks today across northeast Montana. The low clouds will reduce CIGS to MVFR levels at times today. There will also be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at times today and this evening. Skies will clear from west to east across the region tonight.

WINDS: mainly north 5 to 15 knots this morning becoming NW around midday (18z). NW winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon and continue this evening before diminishing late tonight and becoming west to SW 5 to 10 knots.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.