textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Today begins cooler than normal with a possible hard freeze this morning as well as again tonight. Then, a weak warm up is expected through Friday.

- A weak disturbance will bring scattered rain showers across the southwest Thursday. QPF does not look significant.

- A cold front Friday night brings a second chance fore precip again Saturday. QPF with this passage also does not look overly significant.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Anonymously strong upper low over south-central Canada will be more like Jabba The Hutt this week as it moves slowly to the east, keeping northeast Montana under north to northwest flow through the week. The cyclonic nature of it through this morning may bring and isolated snow flurries or two to the far northeast. Expect temps to remain well below normal with highs mainly in the 40s today and readings dropping into the lower 20s tonight for many area, giving most a hard freeze.

The upper low drifts east a bit Wednesday allowing some warmer air to move in with a continuation of limited moisture available for precipitation.

By late in the week, periodic shortwaves will pass through and bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity. THis will mostly favoring elevated areas in the southwest zones both THursday and Saturday. However, most ensemble members at this time show less than a tenth of an inch for any rain amounts in these zones.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM Deviation include lowering temps Tuesday night a degree or two across the board to match up with neighbors and decreasing MinRH Today and Wednesday afternoons a few percent to do the same.

Confidence is MODERATE to HIGH for the extent of warming and further drying later this week based on advancement of upper ridging to the west. After midweek there is very little model agreement in the strength and location of troughing and closed lows.

Confidence in rain is LOW to MODERATE for rain Thursday and Saturday.

TFJ/GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0330Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions are expected through Tuesday but an isolated snow shower is possible through the early morning hours. These are currently too low of a chance to place in the TAFs directly. Brief MVFR visibility would be possible with any shower.

WIND: N at 10 kts or less through the mid morning. Increasing to 10 to 15 kts gust 20 kts in the afternoon. Then becoming lioght and variable during the evening through Tuesday night.

GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.