textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- A slow-moving cold front will bring scattered rain showers through Monday night.

- Below freezing low temperatures through the end of the week. Wind chills approaching 0 degrees tomorrow night.

- Next chance for widespread rain/snow is lining up around Thursday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A surface trough will push east providing sufficient lift and channeling pacific moisture into the region this morning. Rain and snow accumulations will depend on the location of the jet overhead in combination with the surface trough, but the most recent CAM runs favor locations north of the Missouri River with steadier precipitation. Enough colder air has mixed in behind the trough to allow snow along the Hi-Line. Rain showers become a bit more scattered this afternoon as they slowly move south and east. This afternoon, a cold front accelerates south and opens the way for colder temperatures and a hard freeze both tonight and Tuesday night. Stress on newborn livestock will be severe.

Moderated temperatures are expected into Friday with the next chance for precip beginning Thursday through Friday. Amplified trough tracks across the Intermountain West and brings several days of unsettled and low confidence late winter/early spring like weather. The timing and placement of the closed low will determine precip type and accumulation, and at this time is highly uncertain. This far out, there is good model agreement on this being a widespread rain and snow event though timing could easily shift about 6 to 12 hours.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Deviations were made to hourly PoPs, Wind, Wind Gusts, and Sky through about 18Z today based on current observations, radar, and satellite as these affects seem to be about 2 hours ahead of current model weather patterns.

Confidence is HIGH with the rainfall/snow this morning.

Confidence is LOW for a Lake Wind Advisory Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Confidence is MODERATE for a second rain/snow event Thursday into Friday.

GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0430Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: Overcast ceilings decrease through tonight. Intermittent MVFR ceilings will be possible from 08-15Z at KGGW/KOLF with rain showers. Chances for rain will exit KGGW and KOLF around mid afternoon and KSDY and KGDV around the late evening. AReas north of KGGW and KOLF will experience a rain/snow mix in IFR conditions with precip exiting KPWD by about late afternoon.

WIND: East around 10 kts through the morning hours. Switching S and then W and increasing to 15 to 25 gust 35 kts Monday afternoon and early evening. Veering further NW and decreasing to 10 to 15 kts in the late evening through the overnight hours.

GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from noon Monday to 3 AM MDT Tuesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.