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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Flood Watch remains in effect for Dawson, Garfield, Petroleum, Prairie, and Wibaux counties through 6PM with additional rain totals between 0.25" and 0.5", most of it in the early morning hours today.
- Above average temperatures beginning Tuesday as upper riding builds. Highs peak near the end of the work week.
DISCUSSION
- Synoptic Setup:
A low pressure system over Idaho continues tracking east across northern Wyoming. As this exits east, high pressure moves into the region. A much drier pattern will build through the end work week and as southwest flow dominates. As the trough builds off of the west coast, upper riding strengthens over the Northern Rockies bringing above normal temperatures through Friday. A shortwave trough pushing across the southeast on Wednesday may bring a slight chance for some precipitation. Towards the end of the week an upper level trough deepening over the PNW and pushing east over the Rockies will push temperatures down closer to normal as well as the next likely chance for precipitation.
The Flood Watch remains in effect for Dawson, Garfield, Petroleum, Prairie, and Wibaux counties through 6PM with additional rain totals between 0.25" and 0.5", most of it in the early morning hours today. Low clouds presenting as patchy fog may drop visibility to 2 miles in localized areas of higher terrain until noon today, especially along HWY 200, 200S, and 253.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Blended 6 hours of SREF to better match PoPs with neighbors. No change to NBM otherwise.
Low confidence in additional rain totals exceeding 0.5" as of 6Z.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0530Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: KOLF and KGGW, MVFR becoming IFR after 10Z. KSDY and KGDV, IFR/LIFR.
DISCUSSION: Scattered showers continue over KSDY and KGDV progressing northward over KGGW and KOLF after 6Z. LIFR ceilings over KGDV lower to near airport shutdown between 6Z and 16Z, KSDY between 10Z and 16Z.
WIND: East at 5 to 15 kts with gusts to 22 kts, becoming southeast at 5 to 10 kts after 6Z for all sites.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through this afternoon for Dawson-Garfield-Petroleum- Prairie-Wibaux.
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