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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected across mainly the western and central zones through the evening. One or two could be strong to severe.

- Another round of thunderstorms are expected Saturday night with S-SW monsoonal flow.

- Typical mid to late August conditions are expected over the next 7 days with very warm daytime conditions and comfortable nights.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The next disturbance has kicked off showers and thunderstorms over central Montana that were moving east into the CWA this afternoon. There is a Marginal risk of severe weather with these but HREF is showing most of the activity to be south of the CWA. 16z HRRR is showing current showers/thunderstorms to dissipate then refire this afternoon over central Montana that'll move southeast this evening. Upper levels look to support these as they move east overnight but loss of daytime heating should diminish their severity.

Then the upper ridge builds over the Rockies from the Four Corners area. This should suppress thunderstorm activity while temperatures tick up a bit.

A disturbance in a monsoonal flow from the south is expected to make it's way into the area late Saturday. Expect an increase in thunderstorms Saturday night. Expect a slight risk of heavy rain and gusty winds when they move northeast through the area.

Warmer and dry conditions are expected to return Sunday. With little wind expected, fire weather concerns are not expected to be too high.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Pops were given a nudge in collaboration with neighbors as well as to provide better areal continuity where thunderstorms are expected through tonight. Otherwise, the NBM was given the royal treatment. TFJ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1815Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Any thunderstorms late today are expected to diminish as they move east toward the TAF sites tonight. KGGW stands the best chance of being affected.

Winds are expected to be light and variable but could be gusty and erratic in the vicinity of any shower or thunderstorm. TFJ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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