textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- An upper ridge will break down this evening as scattered showers and storms, a few on the stronger side, move through the area tonight into the weekend.

- A breezy day is expected with the backside of the trough on Sunday and Monday.

- There is a decent chance of an upper ridge moving in again for Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper ridge will slowly shift eastward and give way to southwest flow aloft this evening through the weekend. There is potential for strong thunderstorms in the southeast this evening and in the east tomorrow afternoon. The upper trough will move in to bring temperatures down and precipitation will move in for the weekend. A few hundredths in the southwest up to 1 inch in the northeast are possible through Sunday night. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest an upper ridge will move in during the early parts of next week. They also suggest an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will influence the area by the middle of the week to bring temperatures down and move back toward southwest flow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Only deviation to NBM was to tweak PoPs from now through Saturday evening.

There is high confidence in areas north of the Missouri River to see amounts between one tenth of an inch of rain up to 1 inch from now through Sunday night, and south of the river below 0.5 inches.

There is low to moderate confidence of a thunderstorms producing gusts over 50 mph this evening and tomorrow evening.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1830Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, MVFR in thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION: There is moderate (50 percent) confidence of a shortwave trough bringing thunderstorms and temporarily dropping visibility and cloud ceilings to MVFR from 23Z to 05Z Saturday for KSDY and KGDV. There is an opportunity for KGGW to see showers from 12Z to 18Z Saturday.

WINDS: Southeast at 6 to 11 knots becoming northwest this afternoon, becoming light and variable after 00Z.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.