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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Low clouds presenting as patchy fog may drop visibility to 2 miles in localized areas of higher terrain until noon today, especially along HWY 200, 200S, and 253.
- Above average temperatures beginning Tuesday as upper riding builds. Highs peak near the end of the work week.
DISCUSSION
- Synoptic Setup:
A low pressure system over eastern Wyoming will continue keep low clouds from now through tomorrow morning. A similar set up to yesterday is likely, with low clouds presenting as patchy fog. Visibility drops to 2 miles in localized areas of higher terrain until noon today, especially along HWY 200, 200S, and 253.
A ridge is expected to build in Tuesday through Friday bringing southwesterly upper level flow and warmer temperatures. By midweek a shortwave trough will move through the region, remaining mostly affecting the southeast part of the area, bringing rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two.
Thursday and Friday will see widespread 80 degree afternoon temperatures. Highest temperatures of the week trend warmer on Thursday now, suggesting a quicker exit. Towards the end of the week an upper level trough deepening over the PNW and pushing east over the Rockies will push temperatures down closer to normal as well as the next likely chance for a more widespread precipitation. Depending on the strength of the low, wind speeds behind the cold front will need to be monitored.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Minor tweaks to cloud base and visibility grids within the first 6 hours. No changes to NBM otherwise.
Winds on Friday night through Saturday will need to be monitored, as we both think NBM/GFS/ECMWF are washing higher speeds out. Strong frontogenesis from sinking air on the cold side of the low is trending stronger, meaning this event will need to be watched for wind headlines.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0530Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: LIFR/IFR - VFR
DISCUSSION: MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist through the morning, beginning to improve starting 18Z. Ceilings over KGDV will fluctuate between IFR and at or near airport shutdown at times. KSDY looks to maintain VFR ceilings, but may approach MVFR conditions.
WIND: East southeast at 5 to 10 kts becoming southeast at 10 to 15 kts after 15Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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