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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm and dry weather is expected today through Sunday.

- Significant pattern change starts Monday with colder temperatures and chances for light rain and light snow.

- Wintry travel impacts possible for holiday travelers Thanksgiving weekend. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Montana will be in an upper ridge with warm and dry weather through Sunday. Sunday is expected to be the warmest day with highs in the 50s in most areas.

Upper trough moves through the region on Monday with a cold front, gusty west winds and chances for light rain followed by chances for light snow as much colder air moves into the area. Chances for light snow will linger into Tuesday. Most of the EC and GFS ensemble members have less than one inch of snow for this system and track the heavier snow across southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan for the Monday and Tuesday system. There are outliers that bring heavy snow into the forecast area with this system.

Wednesday looks dry at this point with highs mainly in the 20s with lower 30s SW of Fort Peck Lake.

Models and ensembles are pointing towards more snow for Thanksgiving and beyond. There are wide variations in precipitation potential in the models and ensembles at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No deviations from NBM.

There is HIGH confidence of warm and dry weather through Sunday and temperatures dropping to below normal on Tuesday and beyond. There is MODERATE confidence of precipitation occurring at times starting on Monday with very low confidence on accumulations.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 2130Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: High-level clouds move over the area through the overnight hours and through Saturday, but should not have any impact on VFR flight operations. Fog is also not expected to re- form Saturday morning.

WIND: Expect winds to be under 10 kts through the period and generally west to southwest in direction, though terrain influences could make winds a bit more variable.

EQUIPMENT: KOLF and SDY AMD NOT SKED until repairs can be made.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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