textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- A slow warm up with mostly dry conditions is expected today.

- Another system will arrive around tonight with ample rain possible behind it through the weekend. A severe storm or two may be possible Friday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Although a weak trough still lingers off to the northeast, a brief shortwave ridge is expected to influence the area through today. An increase in southwest flow and a building trough will assist a shortwave trough in its passage through the area. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. There is no severe weather anticipated with this activity, and the best chance for a wetting rain is expected in the south.

On Friday, the upper trough is expected to intensify according to the latest GFS ensemble. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms from Friday through Monday. An isolated severe storm is possible south of the Missouri River on Friday, and in the northeast on Saturday. There is potential for a lake wind advisory occurring on Friday, Sunday, and Monday. For rainfall amounts, there is some variation and uncertainty still, but the ECMWF and GFS are trying to suggest a wet system will move through. The ECMWF suggests a dry slot over the south central part of the area, which would keep rainfall amounts down there. There is still consensus on most locations receiving over a quarter of an inch to an inch and a half outside of the dry slot. The dry slot would likely see less than a quarter inch.

To start out July, the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble have temperatures climbing warmer than normal and precipitation coming down, so the sprinklers may start coming in handy again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Increased Pops over the western zones for late Friday morning into the afternoon.

AVIATION

Mostly VFR. There is the potential for MVFR conditions occurring with any thunderstorm activity after 23Z Thursday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.