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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry and warm conditions will continue through tonight.
- A cold front will push east through the CWA Friday afternoon bringing gusty winds and rough conditions for Fort Peck Lake.
- Precipitation chances are expected over the northwestern half of the CWA Friday afternoon and evening. - Cooler and drier weather expected for the weekend, that continues into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Today and tonight: A fairly large upper low over the California coast will keep an induced ridge to its east, allowing NE MT to experience dry conditions and warmer than normal temps through early Friday morning.
Friday night into Saturday: But the upper low will begin to merge with a western Canada trough Friday. This will pull up Pacific moisture through the Desert SW while a surface low developing over southern MT and pulls NE tracking showers across the western CWA through Saturday morning. This will also allow NW winds to increase late Friday behind a cold front. The showers are expected to exit the CWA Saturday with significantly cooler high temps Saturday onward.
Rough conditions on Fort Peck Lake can be expected beginning Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. A Lake wind advisory has been issued for these times.
Rainfall amounts looked to be greatest over central Montana and the models have shifted the deterministic rain amounts west with this run. Areas east of a Culbertson to Miles City line are not expecting any QPF.
Saturday onward: Temps look to remain below to near normal as an upper ridge early next week doesn't nudge east of the Pac NW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NO changes to NBM.
High confidence through Friday.
Moderate confidence Friday night through Sunday night.
Low confidence Monday onward where ensembles break down into NW flow and troughs and ridges in the flow intermix.
TFJ/GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0400Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
LLWS: There is a chance (30-50%) for low level wind shear through 09Z for KOLF, KSDY, and KGDV for a couple hours at each terminal.
DISCUSSION: Clear, dry, and quiet conditions are expected to continue through the day with increasing mid-level clouds after sunset.
WIND: SE winds 10-15 kts through the morning. Diminish to light and variable in the afternoon. then picking up from the E at 5 to 10 kts.
TFJ/GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory from noon Friday to noon MDT Saturday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.
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