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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Fog in Daniels, Sheridan, and Roosevelt counties through this morning and clearing by early afternoon.
- Warm and dry conditions will persist through Tuesday.
- Cooler temperatures and potentially wetter conditions will resume by the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
Fog and low stratus currently present over western portions of North Dakota will spread into Daniels, Sheridan, and Roosevelt counties through early this morning before clearing by early afternoon at the latest. While overall visibilities are not anticipated to be as reduced as they were yesterday morning, localized regions may see values as low as 1/4 mile between 09Z and 16Z.
Widespread Chinook arch clouds are obstructing surface satellite imagery, inhibiting the ability to monitor fog progression at this time.
An upper-level ridge over Montana will result in dry conditions and temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages persisting through Tuesday.
An upper-level trough will dig over Montana by Wednesday, resulting in southwest flow aloft and subsequent cooler and potentially wetter weather.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- Confidence in fog placement and visibilities this morning is moderate (70%). - Confidence in fair conditions persisting through Monday is high (90%). Confidence in fair conditions persisting through Tuesday is moderate (70%).
- Confidence in mid-week trough timing is on the low end of moderate (40%).
DON
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0600Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - LIFR
DISCUSSION: While fog is not currently anticipated at any stations, low-level clouds will dominate terminals through this morning. The main areas of concern are KSDY and KGDV, which will both begin experiencing LIFR conditions by 13Z. VFR conditions will resume between late morning and early afternoon.
The placement of fog, and thus localized visibilities and resultant flight conditions, is still subject to variance. The forecast has the potential to change up until the last minute. IFR/LIFR conditions have a 30-60% chance of occuring depending on terminal.
WIND: E-SE winds at 05 to 10 knots will become SE at 12 to 16 knots with gusts up to 30 knots by tomorrow afternoon.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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