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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Look for warm and dry conditions on Saturday across NE Montana with highs ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
- An upper low will lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday as temperatures decrease.
- Expect lingering showers early next week with cooler temperatures, with a warm up by the middle to end of the week.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Saturday will feature warm temperatures and dry weather across NE Montana with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Southeast winds will be enough of a force to contend with, gusting into the 30 to 35 mph range at times, for the Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake to remain in solid footing for this forecast cycle.
An upper trough will translate east with a cold frontal passage across the area Saturday night. This will mean increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the area, though thermodynamics do not support strong to severe weather at this time. Precipitable water in forecast soundings suggest support for heavy rain in some of the steadier activity, especially in the MT/ND border region.
Cooler temperatures with lingering showers and isolated thunder will follow into early next week with the upper trough passing through. Ensembles then point to a drier and warmer pattern emerging late next week as the next ridge noses into he region.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Pops were massaged for consistency and collaboration in the near term, otherwise NBM captured expected trends well for this forecast cycle. Confidence is high overall for warm and dry weather today followed by showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday with heaviest precipitation totals in eastern locations.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: Saturday June 20, 2026 at 0530Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: Look for mainly dry weather for Saturday with a few mid to high level clouds at times.
WINDS: Southeast winds will ramp up for Saturday, ranging from 10 to 20 kts, with gusts to 30 kts at times.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM MDT Sunday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.
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