textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated grass fire concerns through this evening.

- Lower temperatures this weekend with light rain shower chances across central and parts of northern Montana.

- Mild conditions next week with low end chances for another weather system after midweek.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A final warm day is expected over NE Montana today. Isolated rain showers and breezy conditions will continue through the evening. With relative humidity ranging from the low 20s to mid 40s and rain that falls will have to saturate the air sufficiently in order to reach the ground. Grass fire potential remains a concern today, but marginally. Dry fuels and low RH are the main factors today. As for precipitation tomorrow, model agreement is high for light rain in the afternoon. Little to no accumulation is expected both today and tomorrow.

Ensembles show upper ridging returning across the western U.S. for early next week with dry weather and warming temperatures again. That said, embedded shortwaves and ridge flattening toward the middle of the week will keep the warm up short lived and rain shower chances remaining active across the region.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Blended HRRR for day 1-2 winds and NBM90 for day 1-2 wind gusts. Used a blend of HiRes models to nudge min RH values lower in southwest zones and maintain moderate RH in the northeast zones.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: Friday March 20 at 1800Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

DISCUSSION: VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. Scattered, brief rain showers are possible through the afternoon.

WIND: West at 10 to 20 kts, decreasing to 5 to 10 kt tonight. Winds increase back to 20 to 20 kts and veer north tomorrow.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.