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KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning issued for Dawson, Prairie, and Wibaux Counties this afternoon and evening for highs near 100.

- A smoke plume over the region will reduce visibility at times today and tonight.

- Hot temperatures with highs in the 90s to near 100 are expected each day this week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper ridging over the western U.S. will remain the dominant force the next several days. Most areas will have highs in the 90s. The Glendive area will have highs near 100 today and will issue an Extreme Heat Warning there today from 10 am through 10 pm.

Satellite showcases a large smoke plume stretched from eastern Oregon across northern Montana. Visibility was 3 to 5SM this afternoon and evening but have risen back to P6SM in most areas as of 06z. Smoke will continue to be over the area today and tonight with unhealthy air quality and variable visibilities.

Ensembles continue to show the hot temperatures continuing for several days through the weekend with highs in the 90s to around 100 degrees each day. Conditions will also be dry most of the time with occasional shortwave to trigger showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

High confidence in the hot weather continuing all week. Low confidence in timing any showers and thunderstorms.

NBM Deviations include HRRR/RAP blends to enhance visibility reductions due to smoke.

AVIATION

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR - MVFR.

DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will continue to provide hot temperatures to the region. Smoke and haze will impact visibility through the TAF period with MVFR conditions possible at times.

DENSITY ALTITUDE: Increased density altitude is expected in the afternoon and evenings today, Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures near or over 100. Extra power and longer runway will be needed for takeoffs.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for Dawson-Prairie-Wibaux.