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KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry weather with gusty southeast winds continues today with slight improvement on Friday.

- A bigger change in the forecast will come for the weekend with cooler temperatures and increased chance of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge over the northern plains with a cut off low in California resulting in continued very hot temperatures over eastern Montana.

Strong low level southeast winds will continue for at least one more day of critical fire weather and significant waves on Fort Peck Lake. Hazard headlines remain in place for Red Flag, Lake Wind and Heat through today.

Slight modification occurs on Friday, particularly with the winds diminishing, as the California low begins slowly shifting northeastward. By Saturday, a more significant change in the weather is expected with increasing moisture and clouds, cooler temperatures and chances for thunderstorms. The cooler and wetter conditions will continue into next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High temperatures have not been meeting the forecast for many locations over the past few days. Values have been closer to the NBM10, so adjusted MaxT for today and Friday by blending with NBM10.

AVIATION

VFR. Upper ridge across the region will keep temperatures high, potentially resulting in density altitude issues at area airports. Some low level wind shear will be possible across the terminals from 08-15Z due to low level jet across the region.

EQUIPMENT: KSDY obs are unavailable online and will be AMD NOT SKED.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson- Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM MDT Friday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.