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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- An initial round of showers continues to push east tonight with isolated to widely scattered snow showers expected for Wednesday.
- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Southwest Phillips County through 6 PM Wednesday. A Lake Wind Advisory continues for for Fort Peck Lake through 9 PM Wednesday evening.
- Cooler temperatures will continue for Thursday with isolated snow showers before mild and dry weather return for Friday.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
All current wind headlines remain in effect including the High Wind Warning through 6 PM Wednesday and the Lake Wind Advisory in effect through 9 PM Wednesday. While winds may diminish some overnight northwest winds will once again ramp up by Wednesday morning, continuing during the afternoon and evening hours along with occasional light snow showers.
Winds look to diminish Wednesday night before the next shortwave disturbance approaches with snow showers, potentially mixing with rain, on Thursday on northwest upper flow.
Upper ridging will begin to set up for a warming trend with dry weather conditions for Friday into Saturday. Ensembles begin to show a low pressure and trough system off the Pacific over the weekend and early next week, sending upper level southwest flow over eastern Montana. This could set the stage for the next round of active weather.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM90 was blended in for near term winds given the recent exceedance in expectations, to better align forecast with the observations and most likely short term evolution. Otherwise, NBM captured the overall broad pattern well through the forecast period.
Confidence remains high on the winds continuing for Wednesday but low to moderate for any specific timing and location of precipitation given the isolated nature reflected in the NBM and most high res guidance. Overall consensus continues to reflect low precipitation amounts being most likely.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0400Z, Wednesday Apr 7, 2026
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR to MVFR.
DISCUSSION: Isolated to scattered snow showers may also be associated with MVFR ceilings and brief reductions in visibility.
WINDS: Gusty northwest winds will continue at times tonight, increasing Wednesday morning to between 20 and 30 kts, gusting to 40 kts. Winds will diminish after 00Z during the evening hours to between 10 and 20 kts, becoming light east to southeast winds overnight.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Wednesday for Southwest Phillips.
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