textproduct: Glasgow
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- The first major frost of the season is possible in some locations along valley bottoms Thursday morning.
- Coolest day will be tomorrow (Thursday) with a warming trend through early next week.
DISCUSSION
Synoptic Setup: A cold front is dropping south across Montana this afternoon. Quite a difference in conditions north of the front this afternoon with clouds, scattered showers and temps in the 50s over the northern zones with 60s and 70s to the south with more sunshine.
Models did not pick up today's precipitation very well. The strength of the jet stream could have been the culprit and sometimes models struggle with shoulder season (Spring and Fall) events.
Tonight, clearing is expected with surface high pressure dropping in from the Canadian prairies. There could be enough radiational cooling that sends temps to near freezing in a few locations. But midlevel clouds late could save some locations.
A subtle shortwave at the mid levels is expected to move through the southern zones early Thursday and kick off a few stratiform showers. Temps will be quite cool Thursday with surface high pressure in place and should be the coolest day in this forecast period. Frost has the potential again for Thursday night and Friday but it looks like clouds could keep temps from plummeting.
Saturday into Monday: Surface high pressure over the Canadian prairies looks to be in place this weekend with flow becoming full NW. This will keep daytime temps near normal with dry conditions.
Monday night onward: Ensembles show a ridge building into the area for dry conditions and above normal temps.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviations to NBM:
- Lowered temps tonight toward NBM10.
Many changes were made this morning to mainly raise pops and lower temps. TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1900z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: Clouds and rainshowers are expected to clear out this afternoon then clouds return from the west after 06z tonight. Any rainshowers are expected to remain south of the TAF/Airports Thursday morning.
WIND: NW winds of 10-15 kts this afternoon become light N then light and variable later tonight, continuing through Thursday. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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