textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- The low pressure system near the area will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Friday.

- Warmer temperatures are expected beginning Friday with 80s for highs beginning Sunday onward.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper trough in NW flow has moved into the area, and is most prominent over the far east. According to the latest NBM, there are showers expected to linger through at least Friday evening before pushing east. There is a decent chance of isolated thunderstorms pushing across the central and western parts of the area this afternoon, but little in the way of accumulation or strong winds is expected. There is a low to moderate end opportunity for wetting rain amounts in the southeast through Friday evening (10 to 40 percent).

On Friday into the holiday weekend, an upper level ridge will build in to bring mostly clear and warm to hot conditions as high as the 90s on Memorial Day. Ensemble cluster analyses differ on thunderstorm chances associated with some breakdown of the ridge by the middle of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Increased winds and PoPs for this afternoon to reflect CAMs.

Confidence is moderate for thunderstorms today in the central and western parts of the area.

There is high confidence in the upper trough lingering through Friday evening in the east.

There is low to moderate confidence of wetting rain amounts occurring in the southeast through Friday evening.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0630Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR and MVFR. Isolated IFR this morning.

DISCUSSION: A deck of broken mid level clouds is over the area, and is more focused over KSDY and KGDV. Between 11Z and 16Z, there is a low end probability (30 percent) of MVFR to IFR conditions occurring. MVFR ceilings are expected to linger for KSDY and KGDV through about 03Z Friday. There is moderate confidence of weak thunderstorms moving through the area between 18Z and 00Z. The low pressure system over the eastern part of the area will keep lingering showers over KSDY and KGDV through at least 06Z Friday.

WIND: Northwest at 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 17 knots after 18Z, becoming light and variable after 02Z Friday.

EQUIPMENT: KSDY and KGDV obs are unavailable and will be AMD NOT SKED.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.