textproduct: Glasgow
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm, dry, and gusty conditions this afternoon is expected to quieter conditions with decreasing winds later today.
- The first major frost of the season is possible is some locations Thursday morning.
- There are small chances for isolated showers Wednesday night through Friday night.
DISCUSSION
Synoptic Setup:
Surface map is showing a low over northern Canada with a decent pressure gradient over Montana this afternoon. This has lead to an increase in W to SW winds that have bumped temps across the CWA above normal with highs near 70 north to the upper 70s south.
Chinook arch clouds were quite thick this morning across the region and are expected to gradually decrease as a moisture stream from the northern Pacific pushes south slightly.
Wednesday into Friday: The jet stream near the US/Canadian border will go from a zonal position to more of a W-NW orientation. Disturbances in this fast flow could kick off a few showers Thursday and Friday. Temps will be quite cool Thursday and should be the coolest day in this forecast period.
Beyond Friday: Surface high pressure over the Canadian prairies looks to be in place this weekend with a NW upper flow. This will keep daytime temps slightly below normal.
Early next week, an upper ridge looks to move in from the west while a surface low over NW Canada helps to push a milder Pacific airmass into the area for above normal temps.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The chinook arch over the area today signaled that these will be an occasional weather feature to watch until next Spring. Models do not prog these very well and public perception may become soured with our optimistic forecasts when these occur.
Therefore, blended Sky grids with NAM12 and CONSMOS. Otherwise, going NBM looked good. TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: Mainly high level clouds into tonight will lower come Wednesday morning then some clearing is expected. Minor LLWS is possible this evening.
Surface winds will decrease by evening, then generally NW Wednesday at 10-20 kts. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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