textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are again expected Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially over the Little Rockies southeast toward Winnett and Jordan. A few may be severe.

- Temperatures look to warm up to near to above normal by the middle of the week as highs push back into the mid and upper 80s.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The next shortwave trough will track through the region this afternoon into tonight with convection initiation expected over portions of Central Montana. These storms will then track into portions of eastern Montana during the afternoon and evening hours. For our CWA, focus will be especially over the Little Rockies southeast toward Jordan and points southwest. This is also where an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. The SPC has once again included a Marginal Risk outline. Meanwhile, HREF max ensemble wind gust and updraft helicity signatures support our southwestern zones in this perimeter.

Ensembles next depict height rises over NE Montana as the U.S. Western CONUS upper level ridge becomes more amplified for the second half of the week. Large scale subsidence will help keep convective chances far more limited while temperatures begin an upward ascension toward above normal readings with highs in the mid to upper 80s for this period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Pops were given a nudge in collaboration with neighbors as well as to provide better areal continuity where thunderstorms are expected for Tuesday. Otherwise NBM led the way with confidence above average overall. The exception is toward severe thunderstorms where confidence is more modest given the expectation for limited coverage.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: Tuesday August 18 at 0615Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Skies will feature a few mid to high level clouds from time to time. Otherwise look for thunderstorms that may edge toward KGGW this evening with a tracking shortwave, though most should remain to the west of area terminals.

WINDS: The expectation is for winds to remain light and variable for the taf period, though strong and shifting winds gusting as high as 60 mph are possible with isolated storms.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.