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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder temperatures through Saturday before a trough moves in.

- Isolated thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon across the west.

- Cooler and unsettled conditions are likely Sunday into early next week, with the best opportunity for accumulating rainfall in the southwest part of the area.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging will influence weather conditions today into Saturday, with very warm temperatures and highs Saturday in the 70s. A cold frontal passage is expected Saturday afternoon. This front will help get a few isolated thunderstorms going which should transition to light rain showers Saturday night through Sunday. This will help erode the ridge a bit as well.

A Pacific trough is expected to make its way onshore over the West Coast Sunday, and has it bringing precipitation through Tuesday morning. There is uncertainty regarding how far into northeast Montana this precipitation will make it, so there is not enough confidence to suggest accumulation amounts.

There is some agreement on a trough pattern Tuesday through Thursday, which shows another disturbance around next Wednesday and Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No Deviations from NBM were observed.

There is HIGH to MODERATE confidence in temperatures through Saturday, and MODERATE confidence after this time.

There is LOW confidence in winds Saturday night with the latest NBM ensemble run taking nearly everything well below Lake Wind Criteria after the previous run had it well above.

There moderate to HIGH confidence in isolated thunderstorms occuring across the west on Saturday afternoon.

There is LOW to MODERATE confidence in precipitation accumulation through Saturday evening, and LOW confidence after this time.

/GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 9430Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: A FEW mid-level clouds and VFR conditions are expected through the cycle.

WINDS: Light and variable through mid-morning. Becoming S to SE late morning and icnreasing to 10 to 20 kts in the afternoon hours. calming to 5 to 15 kts Friday evening.

GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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