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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures and increased cloud coverage tomorrow through Thursday.

- Warmer temperatures and clear skies Friday.

- Overcast skies, possible precipitation, and much colder temperatures this weekend and into Monday.

DISCUSSION

An upper-level ridge over the Four Corners region will result in fair weather this afternoon. However, the ridge will weaken through midweek as shortwave-induced minor perturbations propagate throughout the jet stream over Montana. Expect cooler temperatures and increased cloud coverage tomorrow through Thursday as a result.

The ridge will recover as the work week comes to a close. Temperatures will rebound as skies clear by Friday.

Fair conditions will not persist this weekend. The ridge will weaken and exit eastward ahead of an upper-level trough that will dig over Montana by Saturday morning. The trough will amplify as the weekend progresses, with the associated low digging as far south as Oregon by Sunday. Subsequent strong cold air and moisture advection will produce overcast skies, possible precipitation, and daily high temperatures in the 50s and 40s this weekend and into Monday.

Precipitation chances this weekend are uncertain, but Saturday afternoon rain could potentially become snow Sunday and Monday as temperatures dive. If snow occurs, ground accumulation is not likely.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

- No changes from the NBM.

- There is low confidence in precipitation type and amounts this weekend.

- There is high confidence in much cooler temperatures occuring this weekend.

DON

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1930Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: FEW/SCT mid-to-high clouds over the next 24 hours.

WINDS: S-SW at 10 to 12 kt with gusts up to 22 kt, becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will veer SW-NW at 05 to 10 kt tomorrow morning.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.


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