textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief chance of showers is possible in the northeast today, and small ridge will move in ahead of trough in the mid afternoon tomorrow. A wetting rain is possible in the south.

- Another system will arrive on Friday. There is some uncertainty on precipitation amounts, but many areas are expected to at least get a tenth of an inch of rain from Friday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Although a weak trough still lingers off to the northeast, a brief shortwave ridge is expected to influence the area through the early afternoon tomorrow. There is a low (20 percent) chance of showers occurring in Daniels, Roosevelt, and Sheridan county this afternoon. An increase in southwest flow and a building trough will assist a shortwave trough in its passage through the area tomorrow. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. There is no severe weather anticipated with this activity, and the best chance for a wetting rain is expected in the south.

On Friday, the upper trough is expected to intensify according to the latest GFS ensemble. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms from Friday through Monday. An isolated severe storm is possible south of the Missouri River on Friday, and in the northeast on Saturday. There is potential for a lake wind advisory occurring on Friday, Sunday, and Monday. For rainfall amounts, there is some variation and uncertainty still, but the ECMWF and GFS are trying to suggest a wet system will move through. The ECMWF suggests a dry slot over the south central part of the area, which would keep rainfall amounts down there. There is still consensus on most locations receiving over a quarter of an inch to an inch and a half outside of the dry slot. The dry slot would likely see less than a quarter inch.

To start out July, the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble have temperatures climbing warmer than normal and precipitation coming down, so the sprinklers may start coming in handy again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Increased Pops in the northeast for this afternoon is the only deviation.

There is low to moderate confidence a brief shower in the northeast this afternoon.

There is moderate confidence for rainfall amounts on Thursday afternoon, and low to moderate confidence for amounts for Friday through Monday. There is moderate to high confidence for a lake wind advisory being needed for Friday, Sunday, and Monday for Fort Peck Lake.

There is a low to moderate confidence of severe weather occurring on Friday in the southeast and Saturday in the far northeast.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1845Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: Mostly VFR. Some scattered MVFR cloud ceilings through about 22Z today.

DISCUSSION: A trough northeast of the area is still lingering, and MVFR ceilings are slowly rising to VFR ceilings. VFR conditions are expected after 22Z. There is low to moderate confidence of MVFR conditions occurring with any thunderstorm activity after 23Z Thursday.

WIND: Northeast at 5 to 10 knots, becoming east at 5 to 10 knots after 05Z, becoming southeast at 7 to 16 knots after 15Z. The strongest southeast winds are expected for KGGW.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.