textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Upper ridging will bring near to above normal temperatures through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each day through the weekend, especially at night.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Thursday into this weekend, upper ridging is expected to be the dominant force over the western U.S., extending into eastern Montana. This will drive above normal temperatures with at times high humidity.

Weak embedded shortwaves will also keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast through the weekend at times, especially in the evening hours.That said, the predictability of specific timing and placement for convective behavior will be difficult at larger time scales.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Pops were adjusted for consistency and near term collaboration. Otherwise, NBM largely handled the big picture trends well through the forecast period. Mesoscale details will better handle convective evolution in the coming days with minor additional adjustments expected to precipitation chances to refine timing and placement mechanics. That said, confidence remains above average for warm temperatures to continue through the weekend despite some uncertainty in specific timing of storms.

AVIATION

UPDATED: Thursday July 16 at 0530Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Low pressure is shifting away from the region while upper ridging becomes more established. This will bring dry weather conditions for area terminals today overall. A weak disturbance could bring isolated showers or thunder Thursday night into Friday.

WIND: Light and variable. Becoming north at 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.