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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in place for Sheridan county for tonight.

- Unsettled weather with chances for rain and snow beginning Monday night, and strong winds Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Arctic air will remain in place, and a stationary front in central Montana will allow for east winds to pick up tomorrow. According to the GFS ensemble, an upper level trough is expected to erode quickly tomorrow and an upper ridge will most likely build over the region on Monday. An upper trough on Monday night will most likely push southward against the ridge, which will allow for mixed precipitation chances from Monday night into Wednesday night. Northeast Montana is expected to be on the edge of the trough and ridge, which is expected to tighten up the pressure gradient to mix down moderate to strong winds each afternoon Wednesday through Friday. There is a decent chance an upper trough will push through the region next weekend

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Made a deviation to winds for Day 1 into Day 2 with a blend of NBM and NBM 90.

Confidence is HIGH in below normal temps through tomorrow night.

Confidence is HIGH in above normal temps on Monday through Thursday.

Confidence is MODERATE in rain-snow occurring on Monday night into Wednesday night.

There is low to moderate confidence of intense winds on the edge of High Wind Watch and Warning criteria for the Little Rockies on Thursday. There is high confidence in strong winds for the remainder of the area Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1830Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: Clear skies are expected to be replaced by mid to high clouds tomorrow afternoon. There is a low probability of MVFR ceilings for KSDY from 09Z to 18Z Sunday.

SFC WIND: Northwest at 5 to 12 knots becoming light and variable after 01Z, becoming east at 8 to 19 knots after 08Z.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM MST Sunday for Sheridan County.


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