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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Low chance (30%) of scattered showers Tuesday.
- Warm and dry conditions prevail through the end of the week. Temperatures will remain well above seasonably average over the next 7 days.
DISCUSSION
Upper zonal flow continues over eastern Montana and the Northern High Plains today, bringing a brief pause from high temperatures in the upper 60s. Winds remain out of the west through this evening before decreasing overnight.
A fast moving shortwave out of the Pacific Northwest will eject over the Northern Rockies and into eastern Montana and Wyoming overnight into Tuesday morning. Ample moisture provided by the shortwave should support increasing cloud cover across the region with low chances (30%) of scattered showers. Rainfall totals are expected to remain low (0.01") with increased confidence of 0.10" in Daniels and Sheridan Counties.
By midweek, a prominent upper-level ridge builds over the western US and will persist through the end of the week. Seasonably above average temperatures and dry conditions will dominate the weather pattern for much of Northeast Montana, with highs in the 50s and 60s.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- Blended NBM PoPs with the GFS 1 hour, RAP13, and CONSShort. The rest of the forecast was left alone.
- High confidence (80%) of rainfall totals remaining low, but uncertainty remains in the possibility of showers across Northeast Montana.
- Low confidence in the timing of the upper ridge breaking down as well as the strength/location of the low off the coast of Baja California.
KENZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1740Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: VFR conditions today with mid-level clouds moving into the area Tuesday morning.
WIND: Northwest winds will decrease through this afternoon and evening, becoming light and variable tonight. Winds will be predominately east- southeast overnight into Tuesday morning, then veer back to the west near the end of the TAF cycle.
LLWS: LLWS over KGDV between 15Z and 18Z Tuesday. There is a low chance (20-30%) of LLWS over KGGW and KOLF during this time, but confidence remains low. Much of the LLWS will stay concentrated to the west of terminal sites.
KENZ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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