textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers will continue into the first part of Thursday, mainly along and south of Highway 200 near Winnett and Jordan east toward I-94 near Glendive and Wibaux.

- Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the 30s for the northeast portions of the forecast area with patchy frost possible near the Canadian border and in some of the deeper river valleys.

- Seasonable temperatures and mainly dry weather will prevail through the weekend, though a disturbance could bring a remote shower Friday night into Saturday.

- Look for warmer temperatures early next week with highs into the 70s to near 80 degrees across NE Montana.

DISCUSSION

Synoptic Setup: A cold front will continue to push south on Thursday, bringing any lingering showers across southern portions of the CWA to an eventual end. Otherwise look for mostly cloudy skies and cool temperatures across the area.

Zonal northwest upper flow late this week into the weekend will lead to mainly dry weather and near seasonable temperatures. However,a weak shortwave tracking southeast is showing up in some of the ensemble members, so cannot rule out a remote shower Friday night or Saturday. Confidence is not great enough to reflect this in the pops.

Upper ridging looks to build in from the west on Monday. Increasing heights and large scale subsidence will maintain a dry weather presence for NE Montana as well as warming temperatures. Highs in the afternoon may reach into the 70s and 80s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Persistent showers continue across the southern zones but will gradually diminish and shift south into Thursday. The next weak shortwave looks to arrive on Friday night into Saturday but confidence is low on any showers at this time. Confidence is growing as ensembles continue to show wider support for upper riding early next week and warmer temperatures.

Overall NBM handled the forecast cycle well, though nudged Thursday morning lows down in a few valley locations and into the northeast where clouds will occur later. Given the complication of cloudiness, confidence on Thursday morning lows is somewhat lower than average. Pops were also adjusted to come in line with current reflectivity and observations and near term expectations.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0455z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Clouds will lower into the region on Thursday but are expected to remain VFR conditions before lifting in the evening. There is a slight chance of showers mainly focused to the southwest of KGDV.

WIND: Surface winds should generally remain light and variable through Thursday, then will gradually begin increasing early Friday morning.

KENZ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.