textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms this evening with localized strong winds, hail, and downpours. Strongest storms are expected between 5 and 9 PM.

- Much cooler, wetter, and widespread windy conditions to follow overnight into Wednesday, with Lake Wind Advisory conditions.

- Near average temperatures and unsettled weather return late in the week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon through 10 PM. With modest CAPE values ~500 J/kg, but EBWD near 35 kts, will be supportive of localized strong wind gusts and hail. Localized storm tacks with UH of ~100 m2/s2, moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates near or above 7 C/km, and somewhat moist mid levels, seeing 1" hail in the stronger storms will be likely. With the jet stream overhead of these storms, it won't take much to get a gust to 60 mph on the ground.

Lake Wind Advisory winds last overnight into Wednesday.

Additional storms are expected on Wednesday with another but weaker shortwave.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Increased PoPs following CAMs and to better match with neighbors. Increased winds and wind gusts based on HREF ensemble max winds

AVIATION

UPDATED: 1845Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, MVFR with the stronger storms

DISCUSSION: Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the evening, lingering overnight through the end of the TAF period. Stronger, isolated storms will impact TAF sites between 0 and 4Z tonight.

WINDS: NW at 10 to 15 kts through 9Z, increasing to 20 to 25 kts. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 kts are likely, gusting up to 50 kts in strong storms.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT Wednesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.