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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- A slow-moving cold front will bring scattered rain showers tonight through Monday night.

- A mix of rain an snow is possible along the Canadian border east of Opheim.

- Expect another hard freeze Monday night and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Currently, the warmer area of high pressure is beginning to flatten as the broad trough of low pressure settles into the northern Rockies region. Zonal flow aloft sets up over NE Montana through most of the day (Sunday) until SW flow Sunday night brings enough of a disturbance and some added moisture to set of some scattered rain showers.

Recent hi-res model depictions have been favoring an initial line of accumulating rain generally from Zortman through Malta through Larslan. Then overnight and into Monday morning the rain showers become a bit more spread out covering a good portion of the Hi- Line and locations north, over to the North Dakota border. Just enough colder air will mix in behind the front to allow some of that rain to mix with snow or turn over to all snow from Opheim to Westby with little accumulation if any. Overall precip accumulations should be around 0.05 to 0.10 inch near and north of the Hi-Line.

Later on Monday, the cold front accelerates a bit more toward the south and clears out any remaining flurries. This will open the way for a clear cold hard freeze both Monday night and Tuesday night.

Later in the week, temperatures will warm back up and additional storm systems seem possible Thursday through Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Deviations to try and add detail to amounts and timing of rain on Monday, using hi-res models agreements.

Confidence is high regarding no precipitation through Sunday afternoon.

Confidence is moderate with the rainfall Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 620Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR, dropping to MVFR at some TAF sites after 0z Monday.

DISCUSSION: Some clearing of the mid level clouds is expected today before lower clouds and rainshowers move into the region tonight.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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