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KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwest winds will start to subside this evening with one more night of wind chills as low as the single digits.

- Expect warmer and drier weather conditions to resume for the weekend into early next week.

- Early indications suggest a more active and wetter weather pattern may emerge for the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper trough that has brought blustery conditions and snow showers continues to slide east of the region. One more night of wind chills in the single digits and teens will follow tonight, before a warming trend begins Saturday. Modest instability under lingering northwest flow supports a slight chance for rain showers near the ND border Saturday afternoon.

There is strong agreement amongst ensembles for a building upper ridge pattern over the next several days. The overall large scale subsidence will lead to dry weather conditions and an emerging much warmer temperature regime. Highs by Tuesday across NE Montana will likely push into the 70s and 80s.

Some indications suggest that while this ridge axis slides downstream by the middle of next week, diffluent southwest upper flow set up over the Northern High Plains with the next approaching low pressure system. This favors a pivot to a cooler and more active weather pattern unfolding for the second half of next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

The base forecast was followed closely, aside from adjustments to add strength and detail to winds through Saturday given a favorable northwest flow for gusty conditions.

Confidence is high on the strong warming trend into Wednesday. Confidence is moderate and growing that we see a wet period starting by Thursday, based on chances for at least a quarter or half inch of precipitation.

-JEZ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: Friday, April 17 at 1945Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR to VFR.

DISCUSSION: Ceilings will fluctuate from VFR to MVFR at times as patches of stratus push through the region into Saturday. These will produce isolated rain showers in the afternoon hours. The prevailing conditions are VFR with scattered mid-level clouds.

WIND: Northwest around 20 gust 30 knots, reducing to 5-10 knots overnight before returning to around 15 knots Saturday afternoon.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.