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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry and warm conditions will continue into early Friday.
- A cold front will push east through the CWA late Friday bringing gusty winds and rough conditions for Fort Peck Lake.
- Precipitation chances mainly expected for Phillips and Petroleum counties late Friday. - Cooler and drier weather expected for the weekend, that continues into early next week.
DISCUSSION
A fairly large upper low off the California coast will keep an induced ridge to its east, allowing NE MT to experience dry conditions and warmer than normal temps through early Friday.
But the upper low will begin to merge with a western Canada trough Friday. This will pull up Pacific moisture from the Desert SW while a surface low developing over southern MT pulls NE tracking showers across the western CWA through Saturday morning. This will also allow NW winds to increase late Friday behind a cold front. The showers are expected to exit the CWA Saturday with significantly cooler high temps Saturday onward.
Rough conditions on Fort Peck Lake can be expected beginning Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Check the forecast if you have plans to visit the area later this week.
Rainfall amounts looked to be greatest over central Montana and the models have shifted the deterministic rain amounts west with this run. Areas east of a Culbertson to Miles City line are not expecting any QPF.
Beyond Saturday, temps look to remain below normal as an upper ridge early next week doesn't nudge east of the Pac NW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Did blend wind gusts late Friday with NBM90, otherwise thought what NBM gave me looked good.
TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1800Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: Clear, dry, and quiet conditions are expected to continue through Thursday.
WIND: SE winds 10-15 at KGGW and KSDY are expected to gradually diminish tonight and remain light and variable Thursday.
TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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