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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Daniels, Dawson, Roosevelt, Richland, Sheridan, Roosevelt, and Wibaux Counties until 10 AM today.
- Today and tomorrow will be warm with above to much above normal temperatures.
- A cold front early Saturday will bring wind and a return to cooler, near normal temperatures this weekend.
- Cooler and wetter weather pattern returns Sunday lasting into the beginning of next week.
DISCUSSION
Large upper low over the Gulf of Alaska will keep the upper flow over our area into tomorrow generally from the SW. Save for compressional warming effects ahead of the cold front on Friday, tomorrow looks to be the warmest day this week with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. While these temperatures are much above average for this time of year, the daytime temperatures will not be breaking high temperature records. Record highest minimum temperatures, though, may be up for grabs for some locations tonight and tomorrow night.
A vigorous upper trough will begin to swing east through the Pacific NW tomorrow afternoon. With a surface low over western/central Montana, southerly winds will increase throughout the day. A Lake Wind Advisory will be necessary once the event is closer. Late tomorrow night into early Saturday morning a surface low will move NE into central Sask bringing a cold front followed by a wind shift and much cooler conditions. Temperatures will drop back close to normal levels for next week.
Westerly upper level flow persist across the region through much of next week. Guidance has begun to show a disturbance moving across the region on Monday. This feature represents the next potential for widespread rain across the area.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
No changes to NBM. Low confidence in the timing and full extent of dense fog. Issued the Dense Fog Advisory through 10 AM, with the expectation +/- 2 hours is likely.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0630Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR for KOLF, MVFR for KOLF, IFR for KSDY/KGDV
DISCUSSION: Low clouds and patchy will linger along the ND border tonight resulting in IFR to airport shutdown conditions at times for KSDY. While lower confidence, KGDV will follow suit between 8 and 9Z, and KOLF to a lesser extent. MVFR/IFR visibility will persist through the morning, beginning to improve after 14Z.
WINDS: Winds will remain light through the morning, before veering back to the southeast at 10 to 15 kts by mid day tomorrow.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for Daniels- Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt- Wibaux.
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