textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for tonight into tomorrow morning.

- A trough late this week has potential to bring precipitation to the area.

DISCUSSION

The GFS ensemble suggests zonal flow and a weak ridge will be in place through Thursday. There is some certainty of a trough moving in on Friday and precipitation, but there is not much certainty on how much precipitation will fall. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for tomorrow for gusty southeast winds.

By Thursday, an upper-level low off the coast of central California will meander eastward over the Great Basin, enabling the associated upper-level trough to begin digging over Montana. The combination of trough-driven frontogenesis and moisture advection will produce chances for precipitation beginning overnight Thursday.

As of the most recent NBM run, precipitation is anticipated to end by Saturday morning. However, model agreement deteriorates substantially beyond this point. Forecast confidence is uncertain through the end of the week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The only deviation was to winds for the lake wind advisory period.

There is moderate to high confidence in temperatures through Thursday, and similar confidence for winds through tomorrow afternoon. There is low confidence in the trough timing late this week and how much precipitation will fall.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1830Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

Discussion: The weather will be benign beside some gusty winds over the next one day.

Wind: W-NW winds at 08 to 12 knots, with gusts to 20 kt, becoming light and variable after 01Z, becoming southeast at 6 to 17 knots after 09Z, increasing to 15 to 19 knots after 18Z.

LLWS: Low level wind shear 12Z to 16Z out of the southeast around 35 to 40 knots.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon MDT Monday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.