textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure is expected to give way to some light snow showers tonight into Saturday.

- A warm up is expected on Monday, and then some mixed precipitation Monday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Arctic high pressure over the area will give way to a stationary front over central Montana tonight. There is an opportunity for snow showers occurring for most of the area from 10 PM tonight to around noon Saturday. Most of the light snow accumulation is expected to be in Petroleum county and remain below one inch.

Saturday night into Sunday: Arctic air will remain in place.

Monday onward: The latest 12Z GFS ensemble indicates a ridge will build up from the south to replace the upper trough, so temperatures will rebound to near and above normal. The next disturbance is expected on Monday night into Wednesday. There is a decent opportunity for mixed precipitation to occur and some accumulation with this activity as a shortwave trough moves through the area. There remains some uncertainty regarding how temperatures will be affected by a trough that tries to move in on Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Made a deviation to winds by utilizing NBM 90 and the NBM through Day 2, and increased PoPs through 5 PM Saturday.

Confidence is HIGH in below normal temps through Sunday night. There is moderate confidence of snow showers occurring tonight into the late morning tomorrow.

There is high confidence in winds through day 2.

Confidence is HIGH near to above normal temperatures will move in on Monday.

Confidence is MODERATE in some type of minor rain-snow event Monday night into Wednesday.

COnfidence is LOW in dryness or precip from Wednesday onward.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1800Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR - VFR

DISCUSSION: High pressure today will keep skies mostly clear. A stationary front in central Montana will bring chances for snow tonight into the morning tomorrow. There is moderate confidence (50 percent) of MVFR conditions occurring from 05Z to 18Z for KGGW, KGDV, and KOLF. Conditions are expected to move toward VFR in the afternoon tomorrow.

SFC WIND: East southeast at 6 to 15 knots becoming light and variable after 11Z, becoming north northwest at 6 to 11 knots after 18Z Saturday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.