textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

LAST UPDATED: 1930Z

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Fire Weather Zones 122 and 137 through 8 PM MDT tonight.

- A cold front will drive through the area this evening, resulting in scattered rain showers Friday morning and significantly cooler temperatures through next week.

- A stronger chance for rain is expected Saturday night through Monday morning. Totals are currently in flux.

DON

DISCUSSION

Today: Temperatures will increase ahead of a cold front with highs nearing mid to upper 80s. Afternoon and evening humidity will drop below 20 percent for southern areas as winds increase to 10 to 20 mph, gusting to 30 mph in the presence of dry fuels. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM MDT tonight, specifically for Fire Zones 122 and 137.

Tonight into Friday: A low pressure system associated with a cold front will advance through the region with increasing rain showers. Widespread convective showers are possible (20%-60% chance across the CWA) in areas north/northwest of I-94. Shortwave troughs embedded aloft, may potentially heighten PoPs.

Saturday: Expect a brief pause in rain with temps remaining well below seasonal norms.

Sunday morning through Monday morning: Temperatures will remain below normal as an overunning event begins with Pacific Moisture. SW flow will track a mid-level disturbance through our area with higher PoPs (60%-70%) widespread throughout the CWA. There is a range of possible QPF that is varying model to model. NBM is trending higher, at 0.25" - 1". Meanwhile, other deterministic model guidance such as the NAM, suggest more conservative estimates at three-tenths of an inch of rain.

Tuesday Moving Forward: Cooler temperatures remain in place through mid- week when a signal for a ridge to the west brings a chance for a chinook to warm us back up to seasonal norms sometime around Wednesday to Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

A mini deviation to NBM for MinRH was performed along the southern border to match up with the BYZ office for the Red Flag Warning in place this afternoon. Chances have increased with widespread showers this evening into Friday, albeit a small increase.

Confidence is HIGH for low RH values and windy conditions raising fire weather concerns on today.

Confidence is LOW for timing, placement, and amount of QPF of specific showers through Friday, including Sunday evening regarding amount of precipitation.

FINDLEY

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1900Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Westerly flow aloft south of an upper-level trough will transport moisture throughout NE Montana. Cloud coverage will increase as cloud heights decrease through tomorrow morning. Cloud heights will reach a minimum Friday morning as scattered rain showers move through the region.

WIND: W at 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 22 kt through late this evening. Winds will veer NW-N tonight and decrease to 06 to 12 kt with potential gusts to 20 kt. Further veering to N-NE will occur behind a cold front Friday morning as winds rebound to 10 to 15 kt with potential gusts to 22 kt.

LLWS: Wind shear will be possible at KGGW and KOLF beginning late this evening and lasting overnight.

DON

FIRE WEATHER

LAST UPDATED: 1915Z

Warm afternoon and evening temperatures combined with moderate westerly winds and low RH values will result in high fire danger in the presence of dry fuels today. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Fire Weather Zones 122 and 137 through 8 PM MDT tonight. Daily high temperatures will decrease significantly Friday and then remain stagnant through next week, reducing concern from then onward.

DON

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties.