textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably strong upper ridging over the region will bring much above average temperatures today.

- Breezy winds and low humidity will bring increased fire concerns during the afternoon today.

- Cooler temperatures and increased chances of precipitation return late next week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Upper riding will continue through tomorrow, bringing warm and dry conditions to the region. As the ridge begins to flatten the pressure gradient will increase causing upper level winds to strengthen. Assuming efficient mixing given warm temperatures and clear skies, breezy to gusty winds are likely at the surface. For a brief period during the afternoon fire weather concerns will be increased, notably in Petroleum and Philips counties. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning is low, especially given the short period of both low RH and gusty winds.

With that said, with the maintenance of a chinook arch and lee trough, the high temperature may be slightly lower than forecast even with the effects of prefrontal compressional warming. This would raise min RH values and lessen fire weather concerns.

By Sunday a more zonal flow pattern returns with a brief drop in temperatures behind a cold front. Weak riding returns for the beginning of the week and upper level flow turns increasingly southeast early next week with an upper low digging south off the west coast. By midweek flow will split with the upper low cutting off from the Canadian northern near zonal flow. Next chance for precipitation appears to be late next week as the closed low moves onshore and begins to open up. This will allow it to phase with a northern stream trough and pull Pacific moisture northward through the Great Basin.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Raised day 1 temperatures and winds, and lowered RH.

Given the quiet weather through the week, confidence is generally high through forecast period. Uncertainty remains with any precip at the end of next week.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0530Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

Discussion: Dry weather and mostly clear skies save for periods of SCT to FEW high clouds pushing east over TAF Sites.

Wind: Light winds overnight, increasing west at 15 - 20 kts after 15Z. Winds lighten to 10 - 15 kts overnight.

LLWS: A brief period of LLWS around KGDV is possible until 9Z. Areas of LLWS over TAF sites reach highest confidence between 04Z and 10Z tomorrow.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.