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KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring slightly cooler conditions to the region today.

- Increased winds and temperatures along with low RH will create critical fire weather conditions for Saturday afternoon and evening in the southwest. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect.

- Generally seasonable temperatures with occasional showers are expected for next week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper trough will linger across central Canada through the next week with an upper ridge over the Rockies. Various shortwaves will be moving through the ridge over the next week, gradually flattening out the ridge. Over time this will bring cooler temperatures and scattered showers.

In the short term, high pressure will bring light winds today. Saturday will see a slight jump in temperatures along with winds as a low pressure system moves across southern Montana. This also leads into critical fire conditions for the southwest Fire zones, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Saturday afternoon and evening.

As the upper ridge flattens, and flow turns zonal, smoke will likely return to northeast Montana for next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes to the NBM except to add smoke and haze for day 2.

Confidence for upgrading the Fire Weather Watch is moderate, mainly dependent on the winds.

AVIATION

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions are expected through the cycle. Smoke is expected to remain out of the region until late on Saturday afternoon.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties- The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.