textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake Wind Advisory is in effect from 3 PM today to midnight tonight for Fort Peck Lake.

- Brief chance for rain today in the far northeast corner.

- Cooler weather this week, with a brief warmup on Tuesday. Unsettled weather pattern looks to bring repeated chances for rain through Friday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The amplified longwave trough and closed surface low that brought yesterday's rain and snow will continue to move east over the midwest and Great Lakes region. This begins a building high pressure over the intermountain west and subsequent ridging over northern Canada. Tomorrow and Monday will see north winds bringing cooler air. By Monday night the flow becomes mostly zonal over Montana bringing in a very brief but strong warm up for Tuesday.

Tonight an elevated warm frontal passage brings a low end opportunity for a light, passing shower in the northernmost counties in the CWA. Little to no accumulation is expected.

By Tuesday night a surface low will drop south into along the international border across eastern Montana and North Dakota followed by a Canadian cold front Wednesday morning. How much precipitation we'll see from this frontal passage is still very uncertain. Additional waves will keep PoPs elevated through the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Increased PoPs from 0-6Z using SREF and a blend of HiRes models. Increased winds to justify the Lake Wind Advisory, but confidence is low to moderate in verifying.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1900Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR west, MVFR east through 18Z

DISCUSSION: MVFR ceilings continue to push east out of TAF sites. Lingering MVFR conditions over KSDY and KGDV will gradually burn off after sunrise. Low and mid level overcast skies will clear in the mid morning. Scattered to few low clouds will begin to push southeast this evening. A few light rain showers could enter from the northwest between 0Z and 6Z, passing over KOLF and KSDY.

WIND: Light and variable through 18Z. West winds between 5 and 15 kts this afternoon before veering north tonight.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.