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KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning continues until 8pm across NE Montana for gusts up to 60 mph, gusts up to 50 mph continue into Friday.

- Winter Weather Advisory for snow showers across most of NE Montana from 3 AM Friday to noon Saturday.

- Temperatures gradually start to warm closer to normal next week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A dynamic low pressure system continues to produce high winds this afternoon while there is a lull in precipitation. Continued northwest flow into Saturday with wrap around moisture will likely produce impactful periods of snow showers, especially during the daytime hours Friday near the Canadian border. For now, have covered this with a Winter Weather Advisory. However, if snowfall rates and blowing snow outperform, an upgrade in headlines will be considered. Northern Valley county looks to be hit hardest again with forecast snowfall amounts around 3-4" and high temperatures only in the 20s Friday making a less wet, blowable snow more likely.

Much cooler weather looks to stick around through next week, with lows to stay at or below freezing through the forecast cycle. A few shortwaves lend to continued chances for rain or snow showers at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Increased precipitation chances and winds slightly through Saturday morning to better capture the strong northwest flow and snow shower activity. Confidence is low at this time for areas of blizzard conditions to be observed again on Friday. Confidence is high for gusty winds on Friday to remain between Lake Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning thresholds.

AVIATION

UPDATED: 2030Z

FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR to LIFR

DISCUSSION: Following a period of VFR and partial clearing this evening, snow showers return by 12Z Friday to primarily impact KGGW and KOLF. The main impact will be brief periods of heavier snow and blowing snow producing visibility less than a mile at times. There is high confidence for ceilings down to at least MVFR Friday, while mostly VFR at KGDV and KSDY.

WIND: NW through the cycle, 15 to 25 kts with gusts around 35 kts.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson- Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Southwest Phillips- Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Friday to noon MDT Saturday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt.