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KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warm today and Thursday until a back door cold front Thursday afternoon and evening lower temperatures somewhat on Friday.

- NW winds and low RH may create critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon and evening. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect.

- A generally dry pattern is expected through Monday. Chances for precipitation are possible beginning Monday night.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Northeast Montana will be in NW flow aloft the next few days between an upper low over Hudson Bay and northern Manitoba and an upper ridge over the Rockies and Pacific NW. Temperatures will warm today and Thursday ahead of a back door cold front that will drop south into the forecast area Thursday afternoon. It will be a dry front with little or no clouds and gusty NW winds. Winds speeds will be borderline for a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake Thursday afternoon and evening. RH will also be borderline for critical fire weather conditions. Will maintain Fire Weather Watch for Thursday afternoon and evening.

Friday will be cooler in the north and east while the southwest will have temperatures similar to Thursday being near a quasi- stationary front.

The GFS and ECMWF ensembles are suggesting a flattening of the ridge this weekend as it moves through eastern Montana. At the same time, a frontal boundary will remain quasi-stationary along the southern part of the forecast area so that the north will have highs mainly in the 80s while the south has highs mainly in the 90s.

The latest NBM delays any chances for precipitation until Monday night across the region. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There are no deviations.

There is high confidence in temperatures through the weekend.

There is low to moderate confidence in critical fire weather occurring Thursday afternoon.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0600Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions are expected through the cycle with a few mid to high clouds.

WIND: Light and variable winds early this morning will become SW 5 to 10 knots after 12z and WSW 10 to 15 knots after 18z today. Winds will become WNW after 00z this evening and diminish to 5 to 10 knots.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties- Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.