textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler weather is expected today with highs in the 60s and 70s. Then, Temps climb through the week, returning to mid 90s by Friday.

- Smoke should clear from north to south this morning behind a cold front. - Increasing northwest winds this afternoon and evening will cause impacts to recreation on Fort Peck Lake.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A cold front will arrive this morning as a low moves over the region. This will usher in another drop in temperatures for early in the week offering a relief from the heat and fire weather concerns. There may be an isolated to scattered light shower or dry thunderstorm this through the early evening.

Longer term, ensembles exit the trough to the east by Wednesday allowing a new ridge to establish over the Pacific Northwest. This will slowly extend increasing height rises over eastern Montana with northwest flow aloft with a slow increase in temps. HIghs by Friday will reach up to 90s again and probably last into the weeknight. Current ridge crest looks like it may pass the region around Sunday which could introduce increased chances for rain thereafter.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviations from NBM included using a CAMs blend for PoPs through tomorrow. current PPI01 is not matching up to radar echos across the region and CAMs tend to continue this trend all the way into this coming evening. FV3 was the one model thrown out as it was not on target with current conditions.

Other deviations include pulling HRRRSmoke data in for Vis to replace the NBM/GLAMP data which was off target for the removal of the smoke plume behind the cold front later this morning.

GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0600Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR

DISCUSSION: Quiet weather into this evening with the exception of areas of dense smoke. Periods of IFR visibilities will be possible through 08Z. Afterward a front moving through should clear most smoke to the south of the temrinals. Low chances for lightning and rain through 03Z Monday, this will be handled with Prob30s.

WIND: Northwest at 10 to 20 kts becoming north at 5 to 10 kts during the night. Gusty northwest winds 15 to 25 kts return after sunrise.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.