textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer and drier weather conditions will be the main focus for NE Montana for the weekend, extending into early next week.

- Confidence is growing on a more active and wetter weather pattern emerging for the second half of next week.

- Temperatures are also likely to shift back toward cooler than normal readings by the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper ridging will take hold today through about Tuesday or Wednesday based on the GFS ensemble. Then an upper trough is expected to move in Wednesday evening and keep temperatures cool for a few days before temperatures gradually warm back up. There is a chance of thunderstorms expected to occur on Tuesday in central Montana and on Wednesday. There is low certainty at this time, but a few severe thunderstorms will probably be part of the story.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Only deviation was to the wind and wind gusts for this afternoon to bring them closer to NBM 90.

There is high confidence in a ridge coming in and lasting through Tuesday.

There is moderate confidence in the timing of the thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the cold front arrival on Wednesday.

There is low confidence on severe weather potential on Wednesday.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: Saturday, April 19 at 0700Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Benign conditions are expected throughout the cycle.

WIND: Light and variable, becoming mainly south southeast at 10 to 18 knots after 15Z.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.