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KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and mainly dry conditions continue through today.

- A bigger change will come this weekend with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms followed by cooler temperatures that lingers into next week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge over the northern plains with a cut off low in California resulting in continued very hot temperatures over eastern Montana.

Strong low level southeast winds will start to settle down tonight and that continues into Saturday. With the lower winds and the expected higher humidity today, fire weather conditions will be improved.

Then the upper low moves into the area with the possibility of a late day thunderstorm or two that bring strong winds to the NW zones, as outlined in the SPC Outlook.

By Saturday, a more significant change is expected with increasing moisture with chances for thunderstorms. Cooler and wetter conditions are expected Sunday then some lighter showers as the upper low moves away. Temperatures next week remain near normal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High temperatures have not been meeting the forecast for many locations over the past few days. Values have been closer to the NBM10, so adjusted MaxT for today by blending with NBM10.

AVIATION

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

Upper ridge across the region will keep temperatures high, potentially resulting in density altitude issues at area airports.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM MDT early this morning for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield- McCone-Petroleum.

Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson- Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.