textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect a milder day today with temperatures closer to normal.

- A more organized storm moves in Thursday, starting off with mainly rain then changing over to snow Thursday night.

- The heaviest snow should be over the southeast zones Thursday night and Friday morning where 3 to 6 inches are possible. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for Dawson, Prairie, and Wibaux Counties for Thursday night through Friday night.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An active pattern is shaping up, with one disturbance passing by to our south over the central Rockies. The more important disturbance will be moving through the Pacific NW Wednesday night and Thursday, spreading clouds then mainly rain into the CWA Thursday.

In the meantime, some clearing will move into the CWA today. Sunshine should allow temps to warm a bit over Tuesday's and getting close to normal over the western zones with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Clouds will keep it cooler over the northeast zones where Scobey to Plentywood probably will not reach 40 degrees.

Thursday, with rain mixed with snow moving in from the west, highs will be slightly cooler with highs from the mid 30s northeast to near 50 southwest.

Cooling aloft and near the surface will allow the rain to change to snow Thursday night and continue into Friday. The heaviest amounts are expected over the southeast zones where several inches can be expected as they will be closer to the storm track. Will issue a Winter Storm Watch for Dawson, Prairie, and Wibaux Counties from Thursday night through Friday night.

There is agreement between the GFS and ECMWF ensemble that an upper ridge will move in for the weekend behind this upper trough, so temperatures are expected to climb back to around average.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Main deviations were to increase PoPs through 6 AM Thursday with manual edits, GFS 1hr and base NBM as the main models. Used a mix of NBM and NBM 90 to increase winds based on HREF guidance through around 9 AM Wednesday.

For Thursday into Friday, there is moderate to high confidence on the precipitation being wind driven, which has potential to reduce visibility in this period. There is low to moderate confidence in snowfall and precipitation amounts in this period, and high confidence a Lake Wind Advisory will be needed.

There is moderate to high confidence an upper ridge will move in this weekend behind the trough.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0800Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR - MVFR today, VFR - MVFR - IFR tonight.

DISCUSSION: A mix of low and mid clouds are expected this morning with low clouds most likely in the east. Skies are expected to clear in the west reaching KJDN and KGGW in the late morning. Low clouds are expected to linger in the east with a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings. Low clouds are expected to spread into the entire region tonight with a mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR ceilings.

WIND: East to SE 10 to 20 knots today and tonight.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.

Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday night for Dawson-Prairie-Wibaux.