textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Southeast winds will remain persistent through the afternoon, especially along the MT/ND Border.

- Dry weather conditions, seasonable temperatures to continue for the first part of this week with upper ridging.

- Precipitation chances look to increase late in the week around Friday or Saturday after a cold frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

Today: Gusty winds today will lead to near lake wind conditions. Therefore a lake wind Advisory is out. However, RTMA which is much higher in locations is not very supportive of hourly NBM wind grids for today and they also do not appear to be matching up very well with observations across the area, so stepped in an provided a HRRR/ARW/NAMNest blend of CAMs models. Current Observations suggest that winds will continue to to stay up through the afternoon befoe slackening. So, have extended the Lake Wind Advisory through 6PM.

Tonight through Thursday: Ridging out west will sway back and forth across the region today through Thursday with a weak cold front possibly showing up Tuesday and blunting the ridge to the south briefly. Otherwise, conditions will remain dry through these periods.

Thursday night into Friday night: ridge will move east a a Pacific Northwest trough moves into the region and turns the flow aloft south. A cold frontal passage on friday may end up being the focus for rain showers friday night into Saturday as pacific moisture overruns the cold air. The strength of this frontal passage is also suggestive of strong winds at least in the category Lake Wind, but also possibly high wind. Uncertainty of the frontal passage timing is strong as well, and this period will be monitored for future changes.

Saturday onward: Expect Temps back to near normal with isolated chances for showers from here on. But ensemble consistency does break down at this point onward.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM was largely used in support of the going forecast cycle. However, a CAMs model blend was used as a nudge to near term winds through 9PM.

Ensemble consensus appears to break down around Saturday night. Frontal timing on Friday is currently in question. This has produced a near 10 degree range for highs for the afternoon Friday which lowers confidence from this point onward. GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1630Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Approaching upper ridging will guide seasonably mild and dry conditions along with high clouds across area terminals for Monday.

WIND: SE at 10 to 20 kts gusting up to 25 kts through this afternoon. Calming to 10 kts or less through the evening and becoming light and variable through Tuesday morning.

LLWS: Low level wind shear is possible around 03 to 09Z near KSDY and KOLF tonight, but does not look like a high enough chance(10-30%) to include in the TAFs directly at all hours.

GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.