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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- A Hard Freeze is expected tonight.

- A warm up begins Wednesday with temps above normal Thursday through the weekend.

- Disturbances will bring scattered rain showers Thursday then more significant rain showers Friday night into Saturday.

- More unsettled conditions with light rain showers can be expected early next week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Anonymously strong upper low over south-central Canada will slwly drift away from Montana this week as an upper ridge over the British Columbia coast broadens east into the Treasure State. This will allow temps to reach normal levels.

In the meantime, surface high pressure over NW Canada will expand into Montana and the central Rockies/Northern Plains by Wednesday morning. With clear skies and light winds, temps should drop easily into the 20s across the CWA. Some of the colder spots will fall into the teens.

Recovery begins Wednesday as sunshine and a gentle west wind warm things into the 50s to low 60s.

Warming continues into Thursday but NW flow will bring weakened Pacific disturbances in. Not much qpf is expected until Friday night and Saturday, where more than a tenth of an inch is possible, mainly SW of a Malta to Miles City line. This amount and area will likely fluctuate, so stay tuned with model updates.

After a brief cooldown for Saturday, temps look to rebound a bit into early next week, when temps can get above normal levels.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviation: Went below NBM for tonight given the radiational cooling expected. No other deviations were made. TFJ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1900Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: VFR clouds will gradually decrease this evening while winds also decrease. Expect mainly clear but cold conditions Wednesday morning.

WIND: Winds will become light and variable this evening then West at 10-15 kts Wednesday afternoon. TFJ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.


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