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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A band of steady snow will continue moving east this morning with visibility down to 1 mile at times. Wind chills between 20 and 30 below remain expected.
2) The next clipper system will bring a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow to the area on Tuesday along with strong west northwest winds.
3) Sharply colder temperatures Tuesday night are expected with icy road conditions likely.
4) Unsettled weather is likely to continue for the second half of the week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A band of steady snow continues to push east across NE Montana this morning with visibility as low as 1 mile. In addition, temperatures near zero, winds between 10 and 20 mph, are leading to wind chills ranging between 20 and 30 below at times near the Canadian border.
The next complex weather system looks to arrive on Tuesday with a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow. While highs are expected into the 30s to near 40, ground temperatures, especially surrounded by snow, may be cold enough to support some icing problems. This risk may intensify Tuesday night behind the cold front when temperatures trend sharply colder into the teens. Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory covering difficult travel impacts from mixed weather followed by colder temperatures could be appropriate Tuesday into Tuesday night. In addition, a blend with NBM90 to account for post frontal cold air advection shows the potential for strong west to northwest winds developing. A High Wind Watch has been issued for SW Phillips County from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Future shifts may need to look at expansion eastward, though kept headlines focused on the more obvious situation for now.
Colder temperatures and active weather are likely to continue for the second half of the week per ensemble guidance. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM was largely followed this cycle, though NBM90 was used to adjust winds upward given the anomalous patterns anticipated with the clipper system. As confidence increases on wintry weather conditions and strong winds, headline decisions will likely be refined in the days ahead.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: December 7, 2025 at 1100Z
FLIGHT CAT: MVFR/IFR this morning with a return to VFR this afternoon.
DISCUSSION: A band of snow will continue pushing east across area terminals with low visibility, low stratus at times. Expect a return to VFR this afternoon as skies clear from west to east.
WINDS: East at 5 to 15 kts this morning, becoming light and variable around 16Z and light southerly winds this afternoon.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Eastern Roosevelt-Northern Valley- Sheridan-Western Roosevelt.
High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for Southwest Phillips.
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