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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Upper ridging will help provide warm and dry weather conditions through the middle of the week to NE Montana.

- As the ridge slides east hot temperatures will turn hotter with highs by Thursday and Friday into the mid 80s to low 90s.

- Thunderstorm chances look to increase for Thursday evening into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper ridging will continue to provide support for warm and dry weather through the middle of the week. As the ridge axis slides eastward look for temperatures to trend hotter by Thursday and Friday.

In addition, thunderstorm chances will increase each day Thursday evening into the weekend. Coverage will remain isolated to scattered though a few may produce locally heavy rain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Excellent ensemble consensus lends to above average confidence on warm to hot conditions over the region this week. While thunderstorm chances look to increase late in the week, will need to examine high resolution guidance to better capture thermodynamic environment and finer detail to support confidence on storm timing and intensity.

AVIATION

UPDATED: Tuesday August 25 at 1945Z.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Upper ridging will continue to provide clear skies through tonight across the region and excellent flying weather.

WINDS: Northwest winds will range 10 to 20 kts this afternoon, becoming north to northeast at 5 to 10 kts overnight.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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