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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Winds will diminish by evening all areas. High wind warnings are set to expire by this evening.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for cold temperatures and wind chills tonight into Saturday.

- Strong winds are possible again on Sunday with near average temperatures late this weekend into next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A pattern change has taken place where an upper ridge has popped up over the Pacific NW while a deep trough has developed over the Great Lakes. This has put NE MT under a NW to N flow. This pattern is expected to remain in place through the weekend and into next week.

At the surface, high pressure will cross over the area Saturday morning from NW Canada, allowing the strong winds to diminish. Cold temperatures will continue to move into the region, with wind chills dropping to near 30 below tonight.

Another shortwave and cold front drops out of Canada for Saturday. Strong winds come in behind the next front but conditions suggest winds will not be as strong as current event. While winds aloft are similar, cold air advection is delayed and not as strong.

Snow showers look to accompny this system Saturday night and Sunday but amounts should be light.

With this NW pattern in place, weak systems can be anticipated with little precipitation and an uptick in winds. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Went with NBM, except for winds Saturday night and Sunday, blended with NBM90. Pops for the same period were raised to the SREF and GFS. Confidence was too low to make adjustments elsewhere. TFJ

AVIATION

UPDATED: 2000z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

DISCUSSION: Winds will continue to diminish tonight. Skies are expected to be mainly clear this evening but high clouds will move in and thicken later tonight (from the NW). TFJ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone- Northern Valley-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt- Wibaux.

Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM MST Saturday for Daniels-Eastern Roosevelt-Northern Valley-Sheridan- Western Roosevelt.


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