textproduct: Glasgow
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather through Wednesday.
- High Wind Warning is in effect for Phillips county 6 AM Monday through 8 AM Wednesday.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
An upper level ridge will build through the week, bringing unseasonably warm temperatures, 15 to 30 degree above average in some places. Dry weather and breezy conditions will continue through the week. Stronger chinook winds are expected to mix down Monday, most readily for the Little Rockies being near the 850mb level while other areas will have to mix through a low level inversion. The wind and warm/dry conditions will bring an elevated risk for grass fires in the southwest zones that is uncommon for the middle of January.
There is potential through the week for nighttime fog with inversions and snow melt across the Hi-Line. Heading into the second half of the upcoming week, a more unsettled pattern is favored, but there is no consensus yet except for some degree of cooler temperatures and precipitation chances returning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Blended HRRR for day 1 winds. Used 25% NBM90 for day 2 winds and 50% NBM90 for day 2 wind gusts. Lowered day 1 maxT using HiResWFV3BC to account for snowpack in northern zones. Used 100% CMCregBC for day 1 and 2 minRH with slight hand edits in southeast zones - this was a significant lowering in southwest zones.
Monday's temperature is a tough call, entirely dependent on mixing out the inversion. This also could also inhibit the extent of surface wind gusts, especially in central and northern Phillips. Glasgow may meet or exceed a record high for Monday with sufficient mixing!
There is high confidence for dry weather through the Thursday, with low confidence on locations with nighttime fog. High confidence on breezy to strong winds on Monday.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0930Z
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR
DISCUSSION: SCT to BKN mid-level clouds continue, but with no precipitation expected to reach the surface. West winds 10 to 15 kts will be steady through the TAF cycle.
LLWS: Widespread areas of shear with low level inversion lasting through the TAF cycle.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning from 5 AM Monday to 8 AM MST Tuesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Northern Phillips-Southwest Phillips.
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