textproduct: Glasgow

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES: 1) Strong northwest wind is expected today thru Friday. High Wind Warnings have been issued for all of NE Montana.

2) Near average temperatures late this week through this weekend with one cold night Friday night/Saturday morning behind the front.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A Canadian surface low will drop into the Dakotas today dragging a cold front behind it through northeast Montana in the afternoon. This low pressure center will deepen as it propagates southeast through Minnesota at the same time as ridging strengthens over the Canadian coast. This tight pressure gradient will bring strong cold air advection generating strong/high winds over much of the CWA this afternoon into Friday. A High Wind Warning has been issued for the whole of northeast Montana.

Chances are high (70-90%) for gusts of 58+ mph for areas such as the Little Rockies, Big Sheeps, and Sheridan county. Elsewhere, widespread high winds are less likely, but still a medium (40-70%) chances for getting at least a few high wind gusts between this afternoon and Friday afternoon.

A low probability, high impact forecast challenge for travel impacts is the snow chances in the eastern zones tonight. Current WSSI puts parts of Sheridan, eastern Roosevelt, and the higher elevations of the Big Sheeps under moderate impacts. While this outcome is unlikely, it's worth monitoring. There is some potential for 850mb frontogenesis to develop, but dry conditions are currently limiting snowfall.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Other than hourly sky coverage through 03Z this evening, no other deviations were made from default NBM.

HIGH confidence in high wind at higher elevations & Sheridan county (70-90%).

LOW confidence (5-20%) in enough measurable snowfall tonight to create a major visibility concern from blowing snow in the far east.

/GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: VFR and mid level clouds are expected for most of the day. A frontal passage in the afternoon will bring lowering ceilings to MVFR in the evening along with strong gusty winds through the night.

WIND: NW at 10 to 15 kts through the morning. Increasing to 20 to 30 kts gust 40+ in the afternoon lasting through the night. Wind will begin a slow decrease Friday afternoon.

LLWS: Some low level wind shear will be possible at the terminals through 18Z this morning before strong winds drop down to the surface.

GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST Friday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan- Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.