textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong west winds are expected tonight and Tuesday. Gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible.

- Warm day ahead a cold front Thursday, then cooler with the chance of showers through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A strong upper low over western Montana is expected to be over southern Sask tonight. Showers with heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms moved N-NE through the CWA this morning. An intense line of showers/storms were moving east between Billings and Jordan producing wind gusts to 63 mph (Winnett). This line is expected to move east for a few more hours but will quickly fall apart when the diurnal heating begins to wane.

Wrap-around rain will move east into north-central Montana this evening that will move into the CWA Tuesday as an upper disturbance aids in the instability.

Things quiet down a bit for Wednesday with sunshine and temperatures rebound to near normal, mid 70s to near 80 for the CWA.

On Thursday, the next disturbance moves east from western Canada with a cold front approaching the CWA. Temps should reach near 80 across the northern zones and possibly near 90 in the southeast zones. With Min RH in the teens and an increasing West wind, fire weather highlights may need to be considered.

Ensembles then show a much cooler period expected starting Friday with shower chances increasing. Look for high temps to drop into the 60s, possibly 50s if steadier rainshowers occur over the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Pops were tweaked toward current conditions and CAMs for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds tonight and Tuesday were generally left untouched as NBM90 wasn't too far off from NBM.

High confidence on rain this morning with diminishing confidence for rain this afternoon. High confidence for strong west winds this afternoon, tonight and Tuesday. Tweaked pops early this morning. No other changes at this time. TFJ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1950Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR then MVFR Tuesday AM KGGW & KOLF

DISCUSSION: West winds will continue increasing this afternoon with gusts approaching 40 kts in many places by tonight. Gusts over 40 knots cannot be ruled out though!

Windy conditions continue Tuesday with gusts 35-45 kts through about 21z then should diminish.

MVFR cloud levels can be expected to move back in from the NW Tuesday.

TFJ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield- McCone-Petroleum.