textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory cancelled for our eastern-most counties. - Dry and seasonably warmer temperatures are anticipated through Tuesday.

- Weather system will enter the region during mid next week. Exact timing and amounts remain uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Ridging conditions aloft will be conducive for warmer than average temperatures persisting through Tuesday. While a mid-level disturbance exists, it will likely be too dry to induce any precipitation, although the isolated chance still exists, confidence remains low regarding any increase of PoPs.

Sunday onward, Southwesterly flow aloft will cause a trough in the upper-levels to form and a low pressure system upstream. This will lead to water vapor transport from the Pacific Ocean, giving the area the moisture and lift it needs for precipitation. How conditionally unstable the environment may be, will dictate precipitation chances as well as timing of the passage of the weather system. GEFS and EPS are not in agreement after Monday, so we will have to await further model guidance to confirm a range of possible QPF totals. It is setting up and presenting itself as a multi-day rain event with potential impacts if it were to come to fruition, however, due to the spread of QPF, the timing, and placement of the low, it's too soon to hone in on any QPF totals and subsequent impacts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

- Confidence for fog development and placement is low (25%). - Confidence in warm and dry conditions persisting through Monday PM is high (75%).

- Confidence in mid-week trough timing is on the low end of moderate (40%).

- Confidence in LLWS potential at KGDV is moderate (50%).

FINDLEY

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 2025Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: IFR increasing to VFR, then lowering to IFR, potentially ending the period with IFR and/or MVFR.

DISCUSSION: Fog concerns Friday AM have ceased and have mixed out of the terminals in our CWA. Patchy fog remains a potential concern for areas north of the Missouri River, from eastern Montana border to Fort Peck, affecting portions of KOLF and KGGW terminals. Confidence remains low (25%), but the chance is there. KSDY and KGDV are nearing close to an AIRMET which expires at 04Z Saturday. Near these terminals, expect changing conditions from MVFR lowering to IFR, significantly lower ceilings below 1000 ft at times. MVFR likely by 18Z Saturday at KOLF, KGGW, KGDV and KSDY.

WIND: E/SE at 10-15 kt winds throughout the period, gusting up to 25 kts at KGGW, KOLF and KSDY. SE winds up to 10 kts are expected at KGDV.

LLWS: KGDV may experience LLWS concerns up to 35 kt at 2000 ft between 04Z-07Z on Saturday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.