textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers remain over the north part of the area through 8 PM today.

- The next system brings showers/thunderstorms in from the west tomorrow afternoon and night.

- There is moderate to high confidence in isolated severe thunderstorms occurring on Saturday afternoon in the east.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The slow moving upper low will linger over southern Saskatchewan today. There is a decent chance of showers affecting the northern half of the area through about 8 PM today. Then a shortwave ridge will filter in ahead of another shortwave trough tomorrow afternoon. There is a good shot of thunderstorms occurring from west to east starting around 6 AM in the southwest and reaching the east by around 3 PM. Some of the storms may produce heavy rainfall as precipitable water will be around an inch or slightly higher. Up to 3 tenths of an inch of precipitation is possible with the tallest storms.

The next shortwave ridge bring dry and warmer weather on Friday. Flow aloft turns southwest on Friday evening so showers are expected to move in after 6 PM Friday. There is potential for another hot day occurring on Saturday in the east depending on the timing of a cold front that will likely move across the region. There is a Day 4 severe weather outlook for the east part of the area, so there will at least be a marginal outlook for the afternoon and evening hours.

More concerning will be a prolonged southwest upper flow that sets up this weekend and beyond. This time of year could mean higher than normal thunderstorms occurrences that could be severe. Flash flooding is also possible with Precip Water near or above an inch (normal is between 0.50-0.75"). There is low certainty on how long this southwest flow will occur.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The only deviation was to increase PoPs in the north this afternoon for the low pressure system still lingering close to the area.

There is high confidence of scattered showers occurring across the area through 8 PM today and rainfall amounts remaining below 5 hundredths of an inch.

There is moderate to high confidence in showers occurring Friday night, and high confidence in scattered thunderstorms on Saturday.

There is high confidence in temperatures through Friday, with moderate confidence on temperatures from Saturday onward.

AVIATION

UPDATED: 1830Z June Third

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR through 21Z, then VFR, then isolated MVFR on Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION: A surface low northeast of the area is allowing low clouds and MVFR conditions to impact TAF sites. As this low slowly progresses east, there is high confidence these clouds will move toward VFR after 21Z today. There is low to moderate confidence of showers occurring through 21Z today for KOLF and KGGW. A shortwave trough will bring isolated thunderstorms and MVFR conditions after 20Z Thursday.

WINDS: Mainly west at 8 to 16 knots, becoming light and variable after 03Z, becoming northwest at 5 to 10 knots after 18Z Thursday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.