textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Light fog is expected across the northeast in the morning including Plentywood and Scobey.

- Below normal temperatures and mixed precipitation Thursday and Friday with gusty NW winds in the afternoons.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Early morning fog has moved into the region and settled in across the northeast. While some locations may be reduced further current values have not dropped below about 3 Miles so am holding off of Dense Fog for now. This fog is expected to begin clearing around 8AM and be out of the area by about Noon. The rest of the day

The next upper trough moves from the PCNW into the northern Rockies on Wednesday and into the Plains through Friday. This will lead to another round of showers. With colder air in the trough, mixed precipitation is possible across the north with mostly rain elsewhere Wednesday night into Friday morning.

Chances across northeast Montana are as follows.

QPF: 0.10" (30-90%) 0.25" (15-60%) 0.50" (0-30%)

Highest totals focused over the northeast with barely anything over the Yellowstone Valley.

Snow: 1" (0-40%) 2" (0-30%)

Highest totals focused along the Canadian border with lowest chances (0%) beginning at the Highway 2 and increasing northward.

Cool air will remain in place Friday through Saturday with highs in the 40s and 50s and then begin warming rapidly through Monday with Highs in the 70s as a ridge passes through. Ensemble groupings suggest a ridge breakdown Tuesday but this appears to be in flux.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM Deviations include hourly changes to PoP, Sky, and Visibility through the next 12 to 18 hours to account for radar trends and FOG that has developed across the northeast into Tuesday morning.

HIGH confidence in fog through 9AM across the northeast this morning.

MODERATE confidence in a tenth of an inch CWA wide Wed night to Friday morning.

LOW confidence in snow across northern CWA Thursday to Friday morning. GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0530Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR

DISCUSSION: Showers are quickly exiting east to North Dakota late this evening and should be out of the area entirely by about 02Z. However, rain showers from earlier have left behind high humidity areas with fog and LIFR ceilings forming just NE of the KOLF and KSDY terminals. FOG should begin clearing the area around 14Z and out completely by about 18Z. AT which point VFR should be in control through the rest of the cycle.

WIND: Light and variable through mid-morning. Becoming W at 10 to 15 kts late morning through the afternoon. Veering SW and reducing to 10 kts or less this evening through tonight.

GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.