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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances look to continue at times through the 4th of July holiday weekend. A few storms could be strong to severe starting on July 2. - Temperatures will gradually warm to near normal by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Weak ridging will set up behind the departing low for Wednesday, though the trough over the western U.S. will prevail in the days ahead as that downstream ridge flattens, leaving southwest upper flow over eastern Montana for Thursday into the 4th of July weekend. This will mean a general warming trend in temperatures, but a continuation of shower and thunderstorm chances.

Ensembles continue to suggest a stronger ridge for next week with a new surge in temperatures and perhaps a break from precipitation.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Tweaks to pops were made for the short term for consistency and collaboration. Otherwise stayed the course with NBM for this forecast cycle reflecting high confidence in warmer but unsettled weather for the coming days. Confidence is more moderate on precipitation amounts given the scattered nature of thunderstorms and predictability at larger time scales.

AVIATION

VFR prevailing with temporary reductions possible with isolated showers occuring over the next few days.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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