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KEY MESSAGES

- A High Wind Warning for strong winds is in effect for in Phillips County through tonight.

- The next chance for widespread accumulating snow arrives Friday afternoon and night.

- A glancing blow of Arctic air this weekend will transition back to warmer than normal temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fast northwest flow will continue over the region with a weak ridge over California and shallow trough through the Great Lakes. A shortwave sliding through the flow is expected to spin up an Alberta low today, leading to strong downslope winds spreading east. Strongest winds for northeast Montana will be in Phillips county where a High Wind Warning remains in effect through Friday morning.

As the shortwave moves east, the Alberta low will drop a cold front into Montana on Friday, followed by Canadian high pressure. This clipper will bring the chance of snow to the region, with the highest probabilities over the upslope regions toward central Montana.

Warmer temperatures return next week as the cold air is pushed east with the approach to the west coast by an East Pacific low pressure.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Blended in 90th percentile for winds through Friday morning in support of the high wind event and to add more detail for valley inversions. Confidence is more moderate for high winds to be realized in northern and eastern portions of Phillips county. There is moderate to high confidence on placement of heaviest snow with the incoming clipper system. Confidence is high for warmer than normal temperatures next week.

AVIATION

VFR with dry weather through the TAF cycle with chinook winds dominating. LLWS expected through 14z when the stronger winds aloft will mix down.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Friday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Northern Phillips-Southwest Phillips.