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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder than normal temperatures will persist through Monday. Overnight wind chills will be near zero.

- Temperatures will warm sharply on Tuesday. Snowmelt will slow warming across the southwest.

- Warm and dry conditions are expected through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Shortwave trough moving through the northern plains, taking the recent winter storm eastward to the Great Lakes. Cold high pressure is pulled southward to keep temperatures below normal fro the next few days. Wind chills will be drop to near zero or below zero for this morning and Monday morning.

Ridge over the east Pacific will slide eastward bringing very warm temperatures into the region. A chinook on Tuesday will bring rapid warming and result in quick snowmelt. Area creeks, streams, and rivers will need to be watched for ice breaking up and water level rising due to rapid snowmelt. especially through central and southern Montana. This ridge remains over the west through the end of the week with warm and generally dry weather.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence for temperatures on Tuesday is moderate, with some significant snow across portions of the region. This could slow warming in these areas.

AVIATION

MVFR with occasional IFR conditions with the last bands of snow exit the region this morning. Conditions will improve to VFR during the late morning hours with a cold high pressure passing over the region.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.


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