textproduct: Glasgow
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warmest day this week will be Tuesday.
- A few storms late Tuesday may be severe
- Much cooler, wetter, and breezier conditions to follow Tuesday night and Wednesday.
- Near average temperatures and unsettled weather return late in the week.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
The forecast begins today with upper level northwest flow with a warming trend continuing into Tuesday.
A cold frontal passage late Tuesday will lead to evening thunderstorms, and continued showers and potential thunder into Wednesday. At this time, HREF is showing a few storms in the NW flow could bring wind gusts of 60-65 mph and large hail. SPC has upgraded the NE two-thirds of the CWA to a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms. These look to mainly occur from 4 pm-9 pm. With the jet stream overhead of these storms, it won't take much to get a gust to 60 mph.
There could be a minor concern for Fire Weather issues in the southwest zones late Tuesday but fuels have been too green lately for major concerns.
Increasing west winds behind the front may also necessitate the a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake.
Wednesday's storms could be similar as this W-NW flow is quick. Winds could be the better threat at this point. (HREF not able to show this yet)
A quiet period can be expected Thursday-Friday but an upper trough moves in from the Pacific NW this weekend that looks to bring another round of thunderstorms.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Pops through Tuesday were blended with the latest CAMS. NBM has been too dry lately with this cyclonic NW flow.
The rest of the forecast used the NBM. TFJ
AVIATION
UPDATED: Monday June 15 at 2010Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: Scattered cumulus clouds should linger into the evening hours. A weak disturbance moves in late tonight to bring isolated showers that linger into Tuesday. A better chance of showers/thunderstorms move in late Tuesday with a good chance of severe wind gusts.
WINDS: NW winds will diminish this evening then become increase from the West later Tuesday. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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