textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry, and breezy tomorrow. Temperatures slowly drop through the next week. Generally seasonable temperatures with occasional showers.

- Increased winds and temperatures along with low RH will create critical fire weather conditions for Saturday afternoon and evening in the southwest.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for tomorrow from noon to 8 PM for a portion of NE Montana.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper trough will linger across central Canada through the next week with an upper ridge over the Rockies. Various shortwaves will be moving through the ridge over the next week, gradually flattening out the ridge. Over time this will bring cooler temperatures and scattered showers.

Tomorrow will see a slight jump in temperatures along with stronger winds as a low pressure system moves across southern Montana. This also leads into critical fire conditions for the southwest fire zones. A Red Flag Warning has replaced the Fire Weather Watch, and additional zones have been included, but timing remains the same. The window with the most critical conditions will be tomorrow from noon to 8 PM.

As the upper ridge flattens, and flow turns zonal, smoke will likely return to northeast Montana for next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Increased winds using FV3, and continued using HRRR for day 1-3 smoke. Lowered Saturday's RH by hand to better match with neighbors.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 2000Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions are expected through the cycle with some scattered mid clouds overnight. Smoke is expected to remain out of the region until late tomorrow afternoon.

WIND: Light and variable through the afternoon and evening. Winds become east overnight, with several wind direction shifts beginning around 18Z following a low pressure system.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will slide across the region today with slightly cooler weather and lighter winds. Higher relative humidity is also expected. On Saturday a low pressure entering from southern Montana will bring increased winds and temperatures. Critical fire conditions with widespread relative humidity between 10 and 15% percent and strong winds are expected for fire zones 136 and 137, prompting and upgrade to Red Flag Warning. More marginal, borderline RFW conditions will be present in zones 135 and 122, so they have been included in the upgrade.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.