textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures are expected today, and a low chance of thunderstorms in the southeast.

- There is a low chance of thunderstorms in the northeast tomorrow, and one of the storms may be strong. - A brief cooldown is expected for Monday and Tuesday, and then the ridge begins bringing triple digits back into the picture on Friday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge with mostly dry conditions is expected this week. The main pattern change is simply less rain and thunderstorm activity than has happened in the first half of July. There are isolated thunderstorms expected in the northeast tomorrow afternoon, and then for various parts of the area Wednesday through the weekend, but rainfall accumulation with these storms is likely to remain low. This time of year is typically when thunderstorms end up being rather dry and simply produce strong winds at the ground. A couple HRW model runs suggest a storm in the northeast tomorrow that may produce around a 50 mph gust.

The ninety fifth percentile 12Z HREF struggled to reach 30 mph on Fort Peck Lake this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, so decided to hold off on a lake wind product.

According to the ECMWF and GFS, the ridge is expected to bring a little more intensity than the few days prior to that. Friday through Sunday have potential to reach 100 degrees for high temperatures, so a heat product will eventually be necessary for most parts of the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is low confidence in a few thunderstorms in the southeast this afternoon, and low to moderate confidence in showers and storms in the northeast tomorrow afternoon.

There is medium to high confidence of isolated showers and storms occurring from Wednesday through Friday, and rainfall accumulations remaining low.

There is medium to high confidence in a heat product being needed on Friday and Saturday, and low confidence for Sunday.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1815Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: A ridge is building into the area with drier surface conditions than the past few weeks. Mid to high level clouds are expected during the cycle.

SFC WIND: Northwest at 5 to 20 knots, with gusts up to 30 knots. Strongest winds are expected during the day for today and tomorrow, and the weakest winds are expected in the morning.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.