textproduct: Glasgow
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Gusty west winds are expected today that will become NW tonight and continue through Thursday. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM Thursday evening.
- Cool temperatures with frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue the next several days.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Upper trough/low will move through the region today. Strong west winds with cool temperatures are expected today. The system will bring chances for showers mainly in Phillips and Valley Counties this afternoon. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will move across the entire forecast area tonight as the upper trough axis moves through. Gusty west winds will shift to the NW this evening as this system moves through the area. The main area of showers move to the east Thursday morning as the upper trough moves into the Dakotas. Gusty NW winds will continue on Thursday with a chance of showers possibly thunderstorms at times. Will maintain the Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake until Thursday evening when winds will diminish.
The upper low moves to Hudson Bay on Friday and meanders in that areas over the weekend. Montana will have cool NW flow aloft on Friday and then, models and ensembles are pointing towards an upper trough developing over Montana and the Pacific NW over the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms at times.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Tweaked pops today. Otherwise, no changes to the NBM.
Confidence then remains above average for the cool and unsettled weather to continue for next few days given the overall handling of the trough. Confidence in exact timing, placement, and amount of precipitation remains low to moderate given the mesoscale detail still to be worked out a larger time scales.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0700Z/1:00 AM
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR today becoming MVFR tonight.
DISCUSSION: Look for mid and high clouds with breaks today. Gusty west winds 10 to 20 knots this morning will increase to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon with gusts to 35 knots. Winds will become NW 15 to 25 knots tonight at KGGW and KOLF and Thursday morning at KSDY and KGDV. Rain showers with isolated thunderstorms will move into the region tonight and reduce ceilings to MVFR levels.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.
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