textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- A warm front on Saturday will bring snow showers to far eastern Montana, followed by several days of above normal temperatures.

- Windy from a chinook at times through the week, particularly Monday in the Little Rockies.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

With a warm frontal passage on Saturday, moisture ahead of the boundary will set up the opportunity for snow accumulations up to one inch near the North Dakota border late tonight into Saturday morning. More high resolution and ensemble guidance has come to a consensus for a half inch to an inch for Wibaux county and the Big Sheeps.

Behind the warm front, an upper level ridge will build into early next week, bringing much warmer than normal temperatures, dry and breezy conditions. A stronger chinook wind moves in Monday, especially for the Little Rockies where some ensemble members show potential for wind gusts to 60 mph. There is potential for nighttime fog with inversions and snow melt across the Hi-Line.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Blended in a few higher resolution models and NBM 90th percentile to increase both snowfall chances and winds through Saturday.

There is high confidence for temperatures and generally dry weather through the end of the work week, with low confidence on locations with fog beginning tomorrow night.

-JEZ

AVIATION

UPDATED: 2200Z

FLIGHT CONDITION: Mainly VFR

DISCUSSION: There is moderate (40-60%) confidence for a light dusting of accumulation from snow showers at KSDY and KGDV late tonight into Saturday morning. Otherwise, winds will generally be light with only a slight (20%) chance of MVFR to IFR conditions at the TAF sites with the snow showers.

LLWS: Areas of speed shear with low level inversion, primarily around KGGW between 10-18Z.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.