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KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring above seasonable temps and dry weather Today. These warm and dry conditions in the presence of gusty winds will bring high fire danger for southern portions of the area this afternoon and evening.

- A cold front will drive through the area this evening with markedly cooler temps into the late week along with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday.

- A stronger chance for rain is expected Saturday night through Sunday morning. Totals are currently in flux.

DISCUSSION

Today: temps will increase ahead of a cold front with highs pushing into the 80s. Afternoon and evening humidity will drop below 20 percent for southern areas as winds increase to 10 to 20 mph, gusting to 30 mph in the presence of dry fuels. A Red Flag Warning in effect from Noon until 8 PM MDT Thursday.

Tonight through Friday: A cold front will push through the region with increasing rain showers. Wetting rains are possible(20-50% chance) with the steadier convection but will be fairly hit-or- miss and confined to the SW over Petroleum and Phillips counties.

Saturday: Expect a brief pause in rain with temps remaining well below seasonal norms.

Sunday morning through Monday morning: Temps will remain below normal as an overunning event begins with Pacific Moisture. SW flow will treack a disturbance across the region and forma Low pressure center somewhere around Wyoming with the areas north of it receiving the bulk of the precip. Currently This includes northeast Montana, but if this track moves south along with the low we could quickly become shut out of all rain being to the south as well.

Tuesday onward coold temps remain in place through mid-week when a signal for a ridge to the west brings a chance for a chinook to warm us back up to seasonal norms sometime around Wednesday to Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: A mini deviation to NBM for MinRH was performed along the southern border to match up with the BYZ office for the Red Flag in place this afternoon.

Confidence is HIGH for dry and windy conditions raising fire weather concerns on today.

Confidence is LOW for timing and placement of specific showers through Friday.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0500Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: High pressure will lead to mainly dry weather and clear skies tonight through Thursday afternoon across area terminals. A cold front will move through THursday evening and clouds will increase Through the night along with eventual showers by early Friday morning.

WIND: SW at 5 to 10 kts through tonight. Veering West around sun- up and increasing to 10 to 15 gust 25 kts in the afternoon. Further veering N behind the cold front Thursday evening and decreasing to 5 to 15 kts overnight.

GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties.