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KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions are expected through Wednesday.

- Gusty NW winds are expected on Monday with low relative humidity, potentially raising fire weather concerns. A Lake Wind Advisory is likely on Monday.

- Forecast becomes potentially wetter Wednesday night into the weekend with more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Today through Tuesday: Expect warmer temperatures with dry weather. On Monday specifically, the next shortwave looks to approach from the north with a weak cold front. Gusty northwest winds are expected on Monday. Strong boundary layer mixing aloft will bring pre- frontal warming and afternoon humidity readings below 20 percent. When combined with a low greenness index and strong NW wind gusts, fire weather concerns are expected. Upper ridge builds into the area on Tuesday with lighter winds and dry weather.

Wednesday: Upper ridge axis moves through eastern Montana on Wednesday with the warmest day of 2026 so far expected. Some locations will have highs near 90. Low RH and gusty SE winds will bring fire weather concerns along with the possibility of a Lake Wind Advisory.

Wednesday night onward: Upper ridge moves to the east Wednesday night A more zonal flow pattern with much smaller synoptic ridge/trough couplets embedded in it are expected the remainder of the week. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms at times across the region through the weekend with possible wetting rains or maybe even a severe potential depending on whether it matches up with peak heating. Individual ensemble members all disagree on what day/time any given ridge/trough couplet moves through though. So, currently low confidence on specifics like when or how much.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is HIGH with warm and dry conditions through Wednesday. Confidence in critical fire weather conditions on Monday is HIGH as well.

Confidence is MODERATE that critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday.

Confidence is LOW on shower and thunderstorm chances starting Wednesday night.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0400Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Isolated showers overnight with mid to high clouds. Skies clear after 12z Sunday with scattered daytime cumulus Sunday afternoon. Mid and high clouds move in Sunday night. WIND: Variable less than 10 knots overnight becoming SE to south 5 to 10 knots Sunday morning and continuing through Sunday night.

EQUIPMENT: No obs from KSDY. TAF will be AMD NOT SKED until obs return.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.