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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Drier weather is expected today after lingering showers end this morning. Temperatures should be closer to normal on Sunday and Monday.
- Occasional chances for showers can be expected late tonight, Sunday night and again Monday night and Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies and NE Montana will bring rain showers early this morning to mainly the western half of the forecast area. The trough will move to the east this morning which will allow the showers to diminish around 12z or sunrise. Clouds in the northeast are low enough in some areas that could end up reaching the ground and create some fog. At the same time, there are areas of clear skies with moist ground that could allow for some fog this morning. Will mention patchy fog to cover the fog possibilities.
An upper ridge builds into Montana today along with surface high pressure. Skies will gradually clear today and highs will be somewhat warmer than yesterday but still below normal for mid August.
A disturbance late tonight and Sunday morning will bring chances for showers to areas south of Fort Peck Lake.
Sunday will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s with light winds. An upper level disturbance Sunday night will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area.
Another disturbance along with a cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
Upper ridge builds into the area for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with a return to warmer and drier conditions for the end of the week.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No deviations from NBM this morning.
Low confidence of chances for showers south of Fort Peck Lake late tonight and Sunday morning.
High confidence on drier weather today, tonight and Sunday morning. Moderate confidence on shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday night, Monday night and Tuesday.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0630Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: A mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR this morning. VFR this afternoon and tonight.
DISCUSSION: Low clouds in the east will produce a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings this morning. Patchy fog is expected this morning with reduced visibility at times. Otherwise, a mix of clear skies and mid level clouds are expected today with the clouds gradually clearing. Look for a mix of clear skies and high clouds tonight.
WIND: Light and variable winds this morning will become north to NW 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and light and variable tonight.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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