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KEY MESSAGES

- Milder temperatures are expected across NE Montana for Monday.

- Strong west to northwest winds are looking more probable starting Wednesday night through late this week.

- Unsettled weather also set to appear Monday night into Wednesday with light rain and snow at times.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An active and dynamic week is set to get underway for the entire region with frequent temperature shifts, strong winds at times, and unsettled weather as well.

Monday will begin with milder temperatures and a fairly mild temperature regime compared with recent days. High temperatures across NE Montana look to soar into the 40s (and low 50s for the Little Rockies and points southwest across Petroleum and Western Garfield Counties.

Meanwhile, the upper flow looks to become more zonal to northwest across the western US. A shortwave will drop southwest Monday night with an intial cold front and cooler temperatures by Tuesday. A clipper type system quickly on its heels Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by chinook winds which will return temperatures to the 40s for the middle of the week for highs. This progressive pattern will accompany enough Pacific moisture embedded in the upper flow regime to keep things unsettled with chances for rain and snow showers at times. That said most places will see total QPF amounts under 0.10".

For Wednesday night onward into Thursday look to show aggressive west to northwest winds developing across NE Montana, especially for Phillips County and higher terrain areas of the little Rockies. Given absent snow pack, stronger winds may also mix down to the lower elevations. It would not be surprising to need high wind highlights at some point.

Long term ensembles still show colder weather for late in the week into the weekend with a sort of retrograding cold front with the potential for renewed snow chances.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

The baseline forecast kept in line with NBM overall, however, NBM 90 was integrated into the blends given the anticipated strong wind signals showing up for the middle of the week. There is emerging excellent consensus among ensembles on this so confidence is fairly high. Low confidence continues on precipitation overall given the light, scattered nature and periodic presentation over the next few days.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0530Z on Monday February 23

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: SKies will remain clear overall with a few mid level clouds from time to time over the taf period. Aside from wind shear issues at times, surface winds will be east at 5 to 15 kts tonight, becoming west to southwest on Monday at 10 to 20 kts with gusts ranging from 25 to 30 kts.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.