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KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated high wind gust is possible Monday afternoon near the Canadian border east of Opheim.

- A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Fort Peck Lake from 6AM to 6PM Monday.

- Temperatures look to increase for second half of the week with highs each day largely in the 80s.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A closed upper low is departing the region as increasing west winds wrap around the system into NE Montana for Monday. These winds will ensure that the Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake remains well on track. Meanwhile, closer to the low, wind gusts could exceed 40 to 50 mph along the Canadian border where pressure gradient is tightest. An isolated high wind gust cannot be ruled out east of Opheim to the North Dakota border. Given low probability and coverage expected, no high wind highlights were considered at this time but this merits watching.

Meanwhile, upper riding will move into the region for warm and dry weather conditions on Tuesday as high temperatures soar well into the 80s. For the middle of the week, the ridge axis will shift downstream with upper level diffluent flow setting up over the Northern High Plains. This will mean additional thunderstorm chances by Wednesday evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM was left untouched for this forecast cycle as it captured large scale patterns well. Much of the wind is expected to be driven synoptically so opted not to add in high res data at this time. To that end, there is low confidence that a remote shower near the Canadian border east of Opheim could mix down a near high wind Monday afternoon.

Otherwise, ensembles show excellent consensus on the ridge developing on Tuesday before quickly translating downstream, setting the stage for unsettled weather to return for the middle of the week.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: Monday August 31 at 0615Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: A closed upper low departing the region will begin to be replaced by an upper ridge pattern. Look for gusty west winds wrapping around the departing low before diminishing tonight.

WINDS: West at 15 to 25 kts, gusting to 35 kts. Winds look to diminish after 2Z and become light and variable.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.