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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Below average temperatures are likely to persist throughout the week.
- Light rain is possible along the Yellowstone River from Terry to Sidney and points southeast Sunday night into Monday.
- Gusty southeast winds are likely across NE Montana on Monday.
- More widespread rainfall is increasingly likely by Tuesday into Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
A classic split flow pattern remains in place for Sunday as a trough remains situated over the desert southwest with zonal flow to the north in advance of a Pacific Northwest closed low. The desert low will lift northeast into the Northern Plains but remaining far enough east to keep much of NE Montana dry. An exception may be areas along the Yellowstone from Terry to Sidney and points to the east where a few rain showers may occur Sunday night into Monday. Persistent SE low level winds on Monday may also create rough conditions out on Fort Peck Lake.
Meanwhile, system ejecting east out of the Pacific northwest will rapidly approach Tuesday into Wednesday and will bring widespread rainfall to the region during that time. Ensemble mean QPF for the period right now ranges from about 0.10 to 0.25" for most locations if not a nudge above. Given the overall trough like pattern continuing through the week, temperatures will likely remain below normal regardless of rainfall chances.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM was used this forecast cycle save for tweaks to Sunday morning lows where temperatures were falling more aggressively in a very dry air mass in place. Otherwise, excellent consensus on the going forecast depicting below normal temperatures through the week with details coming into focus on precipitation chances for the midweek.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: Sunday October 25, 2026 at 0500Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: Look for mostly sunny skies or perhaps a few high clouds from time to time, making for excellent flying weather.
WIND: Light and variable winds on Sunday morning will increase out of the east at 5 to 15 kts after 18Z. East to southeast winds will increase further Sunday night into Monday.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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