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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A mix of light rain and snow will continue heading east before exiting Saturday morning.
- Gusty northwest winds will continue into Saturday morning. - Generally below average temperatures are expected through the rest of the week with the next chance for light rain by Tuesday into Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Area sensor and camera observations have shown a mix of rain and snow overnight across the CWA with a cold frontal passage. This has also come with gusty northwest winds with the Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake in effect through Noon Saturday. Isolated wind gusts in excess of 58 mph have been observed over the Little Rockies but will remain small in spatial scale and short in duration, thus have held off on High Wind Warning issuance, though those traveling along 191 south of Malta through early Saturday morning should keep in mind the crosswind potential.
Ensembles show a broad trough pattern remaining in place with a new trough and closed low setting up across the Pacific NW by the early to middle part of next week which will eventually shift eastward. The bottom line is this will help maintain below average temperatures across NE Montana over the next several days. Weak shortwaves may produce isolated or widely scattered chances for precipitation toward the middle of the week, though widespread significant precipitation appears unlikely.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM held the line this forecast cycle except for minor adjustments to near term pops to match trends and for collaboration. Near term winds were also nudged upward over the Little Rockies which have come in on the higher side of the guidance envelope. Looking ahead, confidence increasing overall for a quiet start to the week with below normal temperatures, though increasing ensemble spread in the 500mb heights is noted by midweek.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: Saturday October 24, 2026 at 0430Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR/IFR through Saturday morning, then VFR.
DISCUSSION: Lingering rain and snow showers with associated low stratus will bring reductions in visibility at times as well. Combined with the potential for patchy fog into early Saturday morning, those flying should plan for MVFR/IFR to persist. After 18Z Saturday area terminals will see lingering low cloud shift east and a return to VFR.
WIND: NW winds will continue at 15 to 25 kts, gusting to 35 kts through 12z Saturday. Winds will then gradually diminish, keeping west to northwest at 10 to 20 kts by Saturday afternoon.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory until noon MDT Saturday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.
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