textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers continue for the eastern part of the area through this afternoon before the low pressure system moves east. - An upper ridge will starting bringing high temperatures up by Sunday afternoon.

- Chances for thunderstorms return by Monday afternoon and continue through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper trough in northwest flow continues to affect the area. This has mainly shifted far enough east into North Dakota to just be affecting an area from Peerless down to Terry and eastward. This activity is expected to diminish by late in the afternoon.

From Saturday through Tuesday, an upper ridge is expected to build in to bring some high temperatures into the 90s for various locations starting on Sunday. A few CAMs have a few isolated storms in the southwest on Saturday, but only a small amount of agreement between models will keep them out of the forecast for now. There is a shortwave trough expected to move in on Monday afternoon, so high based storms are a potential outcome for that day. An upper trough is expected to move close enough by Tuesday for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to occur through the end of the week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Blended in short-term guidance for winds and precipitation chances through 6 PM today.

There is high confidence of the low pressure system moving out of the area after 6 PM today and a ridge building in starting Saturday.

There is high confidence of temperatures reaching 90 for a few locations by Sunday. There is low confidence in isolated thunderstorms occurring on Saturday afternoon in the southwest part of the area.

There is moderate confidence in isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances beginning on Monday afternoon.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0630Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: A deck of broken mid level clouds is over parts the area, and is more focused over KSDY and KGDV which are just above MVFR at times with some -RA continuing there. The on and off rain chances are expected to shut off for KGDV by 18Z, and then KSDY by 00Z Saturday.

WIND: Light and variable, becoming northwest at 8 to 16 knots after 16Z, decreasing to light and variable after 01Z Saturday.

EQUIPMENT: KSDY obs are unavailable and will be AMD NOT SKED.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.