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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms will move through NE Montana this afternoon and evening, mainly across the northern zones.
- West winds will gradually diminish tonight.
- A warming trend is expected through Thursday, then cooler with the chance of showers through the weekend. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from noon till 8 pm Thursday.
DISCUSSION
An upper level disturbance moving east across eastern Montana today will help bring showers and thunderstorms east across the northern zones through this evening. Amounts this evening could be a quarter of an inch in the northeast zones.
Winds will diminish tonight as skies clear and the atmosphere decouples. Then a warm front moves east through Wednesday with some clouds associated with it. High temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today's.
A warmer day is expected Thursday as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest. Sunshine and prefrontal compressional warming should allow for temperatures to reach the 80s most places. With increasing west winds, minimum humidity in the teens and little rainfall in the southeast zones recently (tenth of an inch or less), a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Thursday from noon till 8 pm.
The cold front then drops southeast across the area Thursday night bringing the chance of showers by Friday and temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Thursday.
The cooler/wetter conditions linger through the weekend as an upper trough settles in then an upper low drifts east from the Pacific NW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Pops through this evening were tweaked from the NBM to match better with neighboring offices. Temps Thursday were tweaked closer to NBM90 given the full sun and prefrontal compressional warming. All other elements closely followed the NBM. TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1835Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR ceilings at KGGW and KOLF this evening. VFR ceilings at KSDY and KGDV.
DISCUSSION: Low clouds will linger at KGGW and KOLF into this evening as rain showers move in. Conditions improve later tonight as the conditions dry. VFR clouds will move east through the area Wednesday.
West winds will diminish to 10 to 15 knots tonight. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties.
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