textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler than normal temperatures through Thursday, except for a brief warmup on Tuesday.

- A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect Monday afternoon/night, with a High Wind Watch for SW Phillips county Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

- An unsettled weather pattern looks to bring chances for rain and snow through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

While modest cold air advection and cloud cover will be common into Monday, upper level ridging continues to build over the west coast and is pushing into western Montana. As the ridge shifts east by Tuesday...it will bring an increase in winds, brief warm temperatures as high as the 70s and dry weather to the area. By Tuesday night, a surface low will drop south along the International border across eastern Montana and North Dakota, followed by a Canadian cold front Wednesday morning. How much precipitation and what type is seen from this frontal passage is still uncertain among ensemble guidance, especially toward central Montana. What is certain with the frontal passage is gusty winds, solid for headline concerns for Fort Peck Lake while likely below high wind for most of the area at this time. A High Wind Warning was issued for SW Phillips county 3PM Tuesday to 12PM Wednesday where there is around a 60% chance for criteria to be met.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Blended winds with hi-res models in the short term and blended with NBM 90th for increases through Wednesday, particularly with the strong cold frontal passage Tuesday night and climatology support.

There is high confidence in winds meeting Lake Wind Advisory criteria at times starting midday Monday, with very high confidence Tuesday night into Wednesday. Confidence is moderate for high wind criteria to be met in SW Phillips county.

-JEZ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1900Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Broken to overcast mid-level ceilings through the cycle, with a slight chance for brief MVFR ceilings Monday morning. Gradually veering winds toward the southeast ahead of warm air advection with gusts up to 30 knots.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from noon Monday to 4 AM MDT Tuesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for Southwest Phillips.