textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- A back door cold front will move through the area this afternoon with warm temperature ahead of the front and somewhat lower temperatures in most areas on Friday.

- NW winds and low RH will create critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening south of the Missouri River. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

- A generally dry pattern is expected through Saturday night. Chances for precipitation are possible at times beginning Sunday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Northeast Montana will remain in NW flow aloft the next few days between an upper low over Hudson Bay and northern Manitoba and an upper ridge over the Rockies and Pacific NW. A dry cold front is expected to move in from the north today which will bring gusty NW winds up on Fort Peck Lake, Nelson Reservoir, and Medicine Lake, and will create critical fire weather conditions south of the Missouri River. Will keep Lake Wind Advisory in effect for Fort Peck Lake and Red Flag Warning in effect south of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening.

Smoke from wildfires out west will move east into the forecast area this morning. However, the cold front will push the smoke to the south this afternoon limiting its impact on air quality.

Friday will be cooler in the north and east while the southwest will have temperatures similar to Thursday being near a quasi- stationary front.

The GFS and ECMWF ensembles are suggesting a flattening of the ridge this weekend as it moves through eastern Montana. At the same time, a frontal boundary will remain quasi-stationary along the southern part of the forecast area so that the north will have highs mainly in the 80s while the south has highs mainly in the 90s.

On Sunday, there is a wave moving across Southern Saskatchewan which could bring a chance of showers mainly along the Canadian Border.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The only deviation was to increase winds behind the cold front this afternoon.

There is high confidence in the Lake Wind Advisory today.

There is low confidence of isolated smoke and haze reducing visibility slightly around midday today.

There is high confidence in critical fire weather occurring this afternoon south of the Missouri River.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0600Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions are expected through the cycle with a few mid to high clouds. There are wildfires west of the area which will bring some smoke east this morning before it gets pushed south by a cold front this afternoon. There is low confidence of reduced visibility occurring from this today.

WIND: Light and variable early this morning, becoming west at 10 to 15 knots between 16z and 18z and NW 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots after 19Z. Winds will become north 10 to 15 knots around 01z Friday and diminish to light and variable by 06z Friday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties- Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.