textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions will prevail through Sunday afternoon.

- Accumulating rain is expected to move in late Sunday through late Monday from the west.

- See-saw temperatures continue through the remainder of next week with another chance of precipitation later in the week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Warm high pressure is anchored over the desert SW state while arcing high level clouds are moving up and over the northern Rockies and spreading over our region. Mostly clear skies yesterday will become mostly cloudy today and through the remainder of the weekend. Daily temperatures will remain much warmer than normal through Sunday with no precipitation.

By later Sunday evening, the ridge becomes flattened by a broad low pressure trough which will bring in cooler temperatures and increased chances for accumulating precipitation to our region. Currently, models are falling into fairly good agreement with around 0.10 to 0.15 rain accumulation near and north of the Hi- Line late Sunday through late Monday. Monday night some of our NE zone locations could see that rain change over to snow with little accumulation.

Tuesday through Wednesday night, the colder air mass will advance southward enough to give our region another hard freeze.

Later next week, oscillating temperatures and scattered precipitation seem possible with details yet to be determined.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Given the recent increase in Fire Weather spot forecast requests, I chose to deviate from the NBM through the first few days of the forecast, utilizing a blend of hi-res models and NBM90 especially for wind speeds, as feedback from fire bosses indicate that the forecasts have been holding back on the wind speeds, compared to observations.

Also chose to provide more detail regarding the arrival of the next storm system from the west later on Sunday and into Monday, using the best precip model consensus I could find.

Confidence is high regarding no precipitation now through Sunday afternoon.

Confidence is average for detailed temperatures now through the weekend.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0425Z, Friday night, 03/27

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

DISCUSSION: High clouds will continue to arrive tonight with thickening clouds at times over the area Saturday.

WIND: South winds around 5 to 10 kts tonight then become light (10 kts or less) from the W or NW Saturday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.