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KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions this afternoon with east to southeast winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph expected.

- Temperatures remain warm through Friday before slightly cooling off over the weekend. Warm temperatures are expected to return next week.

- Chances of scattered showers return Thursday evening and becomes widespread Friday night into Saturday. 0.50" to 1.00" are possible with higher totals concentrated south of the Missouri River and west of the Yellowstone River. Embedded thunderstorms could be possible and will produce localized heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

SYNOPTIC SETUP:

An low pressure system moving south into northern California cut off by the northern stream will continue to lift northeast over the next several days. Ahead of it, a departing upper ridge over the Northern High Plains and southeast low level flow will continue with breezy conditions at times as well as the potential for nocturnal or early morning patchy fog for some areas.

Latest guidance is a bit further south with the storm track and shows a tight gradient in precipitation amounts over our CWA. As a result, headlines appear unnecessary. Although, any embedded convective elements that concentrate may raise totals locally. The NBM generally gives 0.5" to 1.5" of total QPF with the heaviest corridor south of the Missouri River and west of the Yellowstone River. Lesser rainfall amounts are expected toward the Canadian border and MT/ND border. Look for showers to become most widespread Friday night and Saturday before the system pushes downstream by Sunday. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Friday through Saturday.

Upper ridging will yield drier and warmer conditions for early next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM and NBM90 were blended to nudge winds higher in advance of the upcoming low pressure system as southeast low level winds ramp up. Meanwhile, confidence is below average for this upcoming precipitation event for Friday into Saturday given poor run to run continuity among the guidance, a trend toward the south, and a tight gradient over NE Montana. To that end, widespread rainfall ranging from 0.25" and 1.00" are still largely most likely, with the highest totals south of the Missouri River and west of the Yellowstone River, concentrated over SW Phillips, Petroleum, and Garfield Counties.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1642Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR through tonight.

DISCUSSION: Some low clouds along the Yellowstone River corridor are still prevalent this morning which may impact visibility in lower elevations. Satellite shows these clouds to be migrating northeastward and the southern end dissipating. Visibility in this area should improve by this afternoon and remain clear through tonight.

SFC Wind: East winds will increase in the afternoon to between 15 and 25mph and gusts of 30mph.

KENZ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.