textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- More active weather is expected through the weekend with heavy rain possible.

- A Slight Risk of Severe thunderstorms is outlooked for central Montana today, and eastern Montana on Saturday.

- Continued unsettled conditions expected into next week as temperatures gradually rise.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest will push eastward through the weekend with a closed low expected over Montana by Monday. Lee trough and surface cyclogenesis will bring warm moist air into Montana in the southeast low level flow. Combined with southwest flow aloft creating vertical shear, forcing and destabilization along the front will be supportive of organized severe thunderstorms by late this afternoon over central Montana.

As the shortwave trough pivots northeast on Saturday, the severe threat will spread into eastern Montana. High precipitable water and surface dewpoints suggest heavy rain potential in individual storms. Flow is fairly progressive, but training of storms is possible.

The upper trough will move over Montana on Sunday and Monday with temperatures cooling, although rain chances continue. Winds will increase on the back side of the system with the cold air advection.

With the upper trough moving east by midweek, temperatures will be on the rise into the holiday weekend. Fairly persistent weak trough over the Pacific Northwest will support occasional chances for showers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Blended in some near-term/CAMS for pops for today and Saturday.

AVIATION

Generally VFR conditions expected. Some lower ceilings may push north early this morning dropping KGDV to MVFR. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, but not expected to reach the TAF sites until after 0z Saturday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.