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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog will be present across northeast Montana this morning.

- Warm and dry conditions will persist though the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A retrograding surface trough will produce areas of fog across northeast Montana through this morning. The fog will originate near Plentywood and spread across regions north of the Missouri River as the morning progresses. Additional fog may be present in regions surrounding the Yellowstone Valley. Visibilities as low as 1/4 mile are possible northeast of Wolf Point.

An upper-level ridge over Montana will result in dry conditions and temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages persisting though the weekend.

Model ensembles begin to exhibit significant discrepancies around Tuesday afternoon. The ECMWF indicates a trough will begin to dig over the Rockies around this time, but it is possible the ridge will persist longer than this.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

- Added fog in the northeast regions of Montana. No further deviations from the NBM were made. - Confidence in fog placement and visibilities this morning is moderate (70%).

- Confidence in fair conditions persisting through Monday is high (90%).

DON

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0600Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - LIFR

DISCUSSION: Mid-level clouds will thicken and lower this morning. Ceilings as low as 200' combined with fog-induced visibilities as low as 1/4 mile will result in LIFR conditions at KOLF between 14Z and 17Z, with IFR conditions continuing until 17Z. IFR conditions will be observed at KSDY between 08Z and 21Z.

Confidence in the placement of fog, and thus visibilities and resultant flight conditions, is uncertain. The forecast has the potential to change up until the last minute. IFR/LIFR conditions have a 15-30% chance of occuring.

WIND: NE-SE at 05 to 10 knots at KGGW and KOLF throughout the forecast period. Light and Variable, becoming SE at 08 to 12 knots with gusts to 20 knots by midmorning at KSDY. Light and variable at KGDV throughout the forecast period.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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