textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated patchy fog is possible along the International Border this morning.

- A brief warm-up with dry weather is expected through Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from noon till 8 pm Thursday.

- Two periods of light rainshowers are possible. A light one Thursday night/Friday and a heavier one Saturday night through Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Winds will diminish this morning as skies clear and the atmosphere decouples. Previous rain showers may produce enough low level moisture for some isolated patchy fog along the International Border in the north. Then a warm front moves east through later today with some clouds associated with it. High temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the previous days.

A warmer day is expected Thursday partially due to compressional warming as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Temps should reach up to the 80s in most places or 5 to 15 degrees above normal. With increasing west winds, minimum humidity in the teens and little rainfall in the southeast zones recently a Fire Weather Watch was issued for Thursday from noon till 8 pm. This watch was expanded to southern Petroleum and Garfield counties.

The cold front then drops southeast across the area Thursday night bringing the chance of light showers Thursday night into Friday morning.

The cooler/wetter conditions linger through the weekend as an second heavier wave of rains moves in along an upper trough from the Pacific NW. Temps by Sunday will drop to 10 to 20 below seasonal norms with this passage as well.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviations from NBM include hourly Visibility into the early morning today which was tweaked downward for light fog across the International Border.

Confidence in temps is HIGH through Saturday.

Confidence in temps is MODERATE afterward.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0520Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR - VFR

DISCUSSION: light rain showers this evening will move eastward, exiting into ND around 07 to 08Z. However MVFR ceilings may linger an hour or two later. With rain moistening the surface layer and clear skies incoming, light patchy fog may be possible north of the terminals along the International Border. Chance of fog traveling far enough south for a terminal to be hit are low around 5-20% and therefore will not be in the TAFs directly but may require and AMD if it does materialize.

WIND: W at 5 to 15 kts through the morning and into Wednesday afternoon. Becoming light and variable Wednesday evening through the overnight.

GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties- Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties.