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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible Monday afternoon along the MT/ND border with gusty winds.
- Look for increasing temperatures through Tuesday.
- Much cooler, wetter, and breezier conditions to follow Tuesday night and Wednesday.
- Near average temperatures and unsettled weather return late in the week.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
The forecast begins today with upper level northwest flow along with an initial chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon along the MT/ND border. The latest HREF continues to show support for an isolated strong wind gust up to 50 mph as the activity ejects into North Dakota during the evening.
A cold frontal passage on Tuesday will lead to evening thunderstorms, and continued showers and potential thunder into Wednesday. At this time, CAPE/Shear profiles do not support organized severe risk, but precipitable water over an inch could suggest meaningful rainfall from the steadier storms as they wash through the region. Current suggestions are for a widespread 0.25 to 0.50" total QPF into Wednesday, with the greatest accumulations in the northeast zones.
Increasing west winds behind the front may also necessitate the a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake.
Ensembles show an upper ridge over the Pacific beginning to edge eastward late week for a warm up into NE Montana.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Pops for today were adjusted for consistency and collaboration. Otherwise, NBM was largely utilized for this forecast cycle.
Confidence is below average for afternoon thunderstorm chances as the activity may quickly propagate into ND. There is far better model consensus on showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night into Wednesday along with the breezy conditions.
AVIATION
UPDATED: Monday June 15 at 0530Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: A few mid level clouds are expected from time to time tomorrow with isolated showers and thunderstorms potentially emerging in the afternoon and evening near KSDY and kGDV.
WINDS: Light winds in the morning will become northwest and increase to 15 to 20 kts in the afternoon with occasional higher gusts.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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