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KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend through the week will bring triple digit temperatures by Friday. A Extreme Heat Watch remains in effect Friday through Sunday.

- Dry conditions most of the time with isolated thunderstorms possible tonight.

- Drier and breezier conditions Friday will increase fire weather concerns. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Friday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge over the western states will build into Montana this week with temperatures warming into Friday. Look for highs in the 90s in most areas today. On Friday highs will be in the 90s north and near 100 south.

A weak frontal system this evening will bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening.

West winds will increase on Friday behind this front as a surface low passes east to the northeast of us. It looks like fuels will quickly dry and will be susceptible to burn, therefore a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Friday. West winds will likely be strong enough to require a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake on Friday.

A Extreme Heat Watch remains in effect for Friday through Sunday as nighttime lows will also not be cool enough for recovery for sensitive people. It looks like Saturday will be the hottest day with most areas above 100 for highs. Winds will be lighter winds on Saturday but slightly lower humidities will keep the Fire Weather concerns alive.

Flow aloft turns SW on Saturday and a wave Saturday evening will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly south of the Missouri River.

Sunday highs will be a few degrees lower that Saturday but still near 100 in most areas to keep heat and fire weather concerns going. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Added thunderstorm chances to the forecast this evening and increased wind speeds a few mph on Friday. No other changes to NBM.

Moderate confidence that there will be a thunderstorm somewhere in northeast Montana this evening but low confidence on timing any specific storm. High confidence on breezy west winds on Friday and on the heat this weekend.

AVIATION

VFR.

Smoke from the Oregon and Canadian fires will be spreading into eastern Montana, reducing visibility at times through the end of the week, mainly at night and during the early morning hours. There will be mid and high clouds at times today and tonight.

DENSITY ALTITUDE issues will begin to return to the terminals Friday through the Weekend.

WINDS: Will be variable at 10 knots or less through tonight.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.

Extreme Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips- Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Southwest Phillips- Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.