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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Light snow, accumulating at times, will continue through mid morning today in east central Montana. Plan extra time for morning commutes.
- Unsettled weather pattern with mild temperatures and chances for rain through midweek.
- Much warmer and drier to end the week.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper level trough remains over western Montana, but the upper level low has moved east out of Montana. Rain and snow chances will continue through the morning, remaining in central and southern Montana. East central MT, including the areas of I-94 in Prairie, Dawson, and Richland counties. Wintry impacts may still be felt in McCone and Wibaux, but the heaviest snow (additional accumulations up to 1") will be along the interstate.
Tuesday a closed low looks to move onshore into central California pushing upper level ridging off the coast of the PNW, which will keep temperatures around seasonal averages. The ridge slowly pushes east through Montana by Friday, bringing much warmer temperatures up into the 70s. After Friday there is very little model agreement on the placement of troughing in the SW, which will determine how a possible Pacific shortwave (and moisture) and subsequent influx of colder, Canadian air will impact NE MT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Increased PoPs through 15Z, following current radar. Blended 50% of my favorite forecast flavor, NBM90, for day 1 wind gusts.
Low confidence in the timing of the snow ending this morning, however, high confidence in accumulation staying below 1". High confidence in much warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday, but low confidence in the showers and cooler temps at the end of the week.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0630Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR (KGGW, KOLF), IFR (KSDY, KGDV)
DISCUSSION: Light snow will continue alongside IFR ceilings and intermittent visibility drops as low as 3SM over KSDY and KGDV through 10Z. After 10Z MVFR conditions will persist over over those TAF sites until as late as 18Z tomorrow. For KGGW and KOLF, mid level overcast skies will start to diminish beginning 10Z, becoming SKC by 16Z.
WIND: N at 5 to 10 kts becoming variable during the late afternoon.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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