textproduct: Glasgow

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES: - Arctic air will slowly lift out of the area this morning.

- Much warmer temperatures today through Wednesday.

- A strong system will bring wind on Tuesday, and precipitation and wind on Wednesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Arctic air and wind chills below zero will continue for most of the area through around noon before rising above zero. As temperatures have already risen above -20, the Cold Weather Advisory will be canceled before 6 am. Temperatures are expected to climb above freezing outside of river basins as a chinook warming event reaches the area, which leaves potential for fog tonight in river valleys. The warm up in river basins will initially be limited due to the heavy snow cover in place, particularly in the Milk and Missouri river valleys, which would limit melting in river basins. As a strong shortwave impulse moves in on Monday evening, there is potential for a high wind hazard in the Little Rockies on Monday night, which will bring rapid snowmelt and leaves a possibility for minor flooding. There is another impulse expected on Wednesday, so strong winds are possible for the entire area then. There is also precipitation associated with the disturbance on Wednesday. Currently, mixed precipitation is expected with overall accumulation remaining below one tenth of an inch. A cold front is expected to bring temperatures down again on Wednesday night into Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in wind chills remaining below zero through noon before recovering above zero. There is moderate confidence in the high temperature forecast for today based on recent snowcover. There is moderate to high confidence on temperatures for Monday through Wednesday. There is low confidence on precipitation amounts on Wednesday into Thursday. There is high confidence a high wind product will be needed for Monday night for southwest Phillips county. There is low to moderate confidence on a high wind product being needed on Wednesday for the entire area.

Made slight adjustments to winds and temperatures for today. The rest of the forecast was left with the base NBM forecast.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0945Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, then possible MVFR to IFR tonight.

DISCUSSION: Low clouds have moved off into North Dakota, and a ridge pattern is beginning to move into the area. There is high confidence of VFR conditions through 03Z. As temperatures climb above freezing in higher elevation locations today, some of this could result in patchy fog tonight. There is currently low to moderate confidence in MVFR to IFR conditions occurring.

WINDS: For KGGW, southeast at 10 to 18 knots becoming northwest 6 to 11 knots after 21Z. For KOLF, east at 5 to 10 knots becoming west at 6 to 11 knots after 21Z. For KGDV and KSDY, south southeast at 8 to 16 knots becoming southwest at 10 to 17 knots after 19Z.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST early this morning for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-McCone-Northern Phillips- Northern Valley-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.