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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Mild temperatures and gusty winds begin Thursday night, with a High Wind Warning for strong winds Thursday in Phillips County.
- The next chance for widespread accumulating snow arrives Friday night.
- A glancing blow of Arctic air this weekend will transition back to warmer than normal temperatures next week.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Chinook winds will dominate the forecast through Thursday. While this brings warmer than normal highs in the 40s and 50s, increasing winds will coincide with a shortwave trough passage that aids in mixing down strong winds over Phillips county. There is persistent model agreement for winds reaching at least 40 mph, gust 60 mph around the Little Rockies and adjacent areas to the north/east. Most of the remainder of NE Montana has a low (<30%) chance of strong winds occurring with 40-50 mph gusts more common, but would see a few gusts of 55-60 mph in a high end scenario. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning for Phillips County late Wednesday night into early Friday morning.
Late this week extending into the weekend, temperatures will fall in response to a backdoor cold front from the northeast, sending wind chills subzero for a period. This transition will bring with it likely chances for accumulating snow from an Alberta clipper low pressure system Friday into Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Blended HRRR for day 1 winds, 33% NBM90 for day 2-3 winds, and 50% NBM90 for day 1-3 wind gusts.
Models are a little slow to push the winds out on Friday, but the cold front will probably cut into the winds along the Hi-line early on Friday.
Low confidence in total snow accumulations on Friday, but higher confidence in precipitation with the clipper system.
AVIATION
UPDATE: 0630Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: Mid to high clouds and dry weather through the TAF cycle. Patchy fog is also possible through tomorrow morning, though did not include in the TAF with this issuance.
WIND: Light and generally variable winds through tonight before 14Z. West winds increase through the morning becoming 15 to 20 kt. Strong winds continue through tomorrow.
LLWS: Areas of LLWS over KGGW from 14 - 16Z. LLWS begins to affect KOLF, KSDY, and KGDV after 2Z
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for Central and Southeast Phillips-Northern Phillips-Southwest Phillips.
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