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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer and drier weather conditions will be the main focus for NE Montana for the weekend, extending into early next week.

- Wetter weather pattern and temperatures to shift cooler than normal or the second half of next week. Decent rainfall and snow showers are expected Wednesday evening through Friday evening.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper ridging will build through Wednesday keeping temperatures much above average through midweek. Then an upper trough is expected to move in Wednesday evening and keep temperatures cool for a few days before temperatures gradually warm back up. There is a chance of thunderstorms expected to occur on Tuesday in central Montana and on Wednesday. There is low certainty at this time, but a few severe thunderstorms will probably be part of the story. There is a decent chance of precipitation accumulations ranging between two tenths of an inch up to around 0.75 inches from Wednesday through Thursday evening. A reinforcing cold front on Thursday will bring in some strong winds for the area, enough so that the Little Rockies has the potential for a High Wind Watch at some point closer to the actual event. The front will also bring a switch to snow for most locations on Thursday night, and winds are expected to kick up again on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Increase PoPs for day 2 into day 3 to slight chance for the western half of the CWA.

There is high confidence in temperatures through Thursday and thunderstorms occurring on Wednesday with the oncoming trough. There is high confidence in precipitation occurring on Thursday as well.

There is low to moderate confidence on precipitation amounts and snow amounts from Wednesday into Friday.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 0615Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Dry weather and clear skies are expected throughout the cycle.

WIND: SSE at 10 - 15 kts before becoming NNW 7 - 12 kts after 15Z, becoming light and variable after 00Z Tuesday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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