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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Typical mid to late August conditions are expected through the weekend with warm daytime conditions and comfortable nights.

- Dry weather is expected until the weekend when the southwest monsoonal flow will bring another round of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The persistent upper ridge will build into the northern Rockies from the Four Corners area through the end of the week. This should suppress thunderstorm activity while temperatures tick up a bit.

A weak disturbance moving across the Canadian prairies on Friday could bring a few thunderstorms into northeast Montana. High pressure following the disturbance will also bring stronger winds into the region, and should increase fire concerns.

A trough from the Pacific Northwest will cut through the ridge over the weekend. This will bring an increase in thunderstorms Saturday night with a slight risk of heavy rain and gusty winds when they move northeast through the area. Strong winds could follow the front/trough for Sunday and Monday, continuing the higher fire concerns.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Pops were given a nudge to provide better areal continuity where thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Otherwise, the NBM was given the royal treatment.

AVIATION

VFR. Generally dry conditions with light winds are expected with high pressure building into the region today.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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