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DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Bitterly cold temperatures are expected to continue through this weekend with wind chills dropping as low as minus 47 in the far NE corner of the state. A Cold Weather Advisory and an Extreme Cold Warning remain in effect. - Temperatures are expected to eventually climb to near normal through next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The coldest lobe of the closed low pressure arctic airmass is now descending southward through the northern high plains, quickly dropping surface temperatures across the region. Bands of clouds and light snow are forming along the leading edge of the air mass, giving central and southern Montana a bit of snow accumulation now through late tonight. Eventually by tomorrow, those clouds are expected to continue clearing away toward the south.

The coldest wind chill readings are expected late overnight tonight and early Friday morning. Although, Friday and Saturday night will also see readings near these levels.

Temperatures will moderate early next week, but only gradually.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Deviations from NBM include hi-res data for PoPs and winds for the first 24 hours.

Confidence is HIGH for hazardous cold temperatures, beginning today and lasting through the weekend. The question will be, how deep and how far southwest does the cold air get to necessitate a warning.

AVIATION

Updated at 2125Z, Thu afternoon Jan 22

PATTERN: The cold arctic airmass is now moving through the region and will settle in through this weekend. Scattered clouds at all levels will eventually clear from north to south through this TAF cycle.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: Even though VFR conditions are expected, cold temperature impacts at all NE MT terminals will may cause icing problems and equipment failure due to exposure, especially during the late night through early morning hours.

WINDS: This afternoon and evening, from the north around 10 kts. Tonight, from the NE and E around 5 kts. Friday, from the E and SE around 5 kts if not calm.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM MST Sunday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Dawson-Garfield- McCone-Northern Phillips-Prairie-Southwest Phillips-Wibaux.

Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM MST Sunday for Daniels-Eastern Roosevelt-Northern Valley-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt.