textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures continue though at least Friday with highs in the 90s to 105 degrees. - Gusty southeast winds each afternoon through Thursday will lead to critical fire weather in areas of dry fuels and a hazard to small craft on Fort Peck Lake.

- The next chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives this weekend with the best chances west of Highway 24.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Afternoon temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s and low 100s through Friday as an upper ridge sets up from now through Friday. Nighttime temperatures will also be warm. All temps are expected to challenge records.

Today and Thursday are expected to confine most convection to the far western part of the CWA. There is critical fire weather, strong winds over Fort Peck Lake, and intense heat over the area the next few days, so various weather products have been issued for all these hazards.

For Saturday, high PWAT values (1 to 1.3 inches) are expected in the atmosphere over the area, so thunderstorms that occur this day will be prone to heavy downpours. So far, the deterministic GFS has these values dropping back down below one inch by Sunday afternoon. Overall, there are at least isolated thunderstorms possible each day through June 3rd, and temperatures will drop into the 70s and 80s for highs sometime during the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Only deviation was to increase hourly PoPs across the west late this afternoon and evening which had near nothing in NBM PPI01.

There is HIGH confidence in hot temperatures (90 or above) through Friday for at least a few locations. Low temperatures will struggle to drop below the mid 60s as well, so adequate water intake will be important.

There is LOW confidence for thunderstorms today and Thursday in the far west.

There is HIGH confidence in the Red Flag Warnings, the Heat Advisories, and the Lake Wind Advisory products.

GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0430Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Expect mid to high clouds and an isolated rain shower possible over the next 24 hours.

DENSITY ALTITUDE: Will be high due thinner air in the afternoons through Friday from 95 - 105 degree temps.

LLWS: Some low level wind shear will be possible across the terminals from 06-12Z due to low level jet across the region.

WIND: Southeast at 10 to 15 gust 25 kts through the overnight hours. Increasing to 15 to 25 gust 35 kts in the afternoon hours.

EQUIPMENT: KSDY obs are unavailable and will be AMD NOT SKED.

/GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.

Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 10 PM MDT Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Thursday for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.