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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected through tonight.
- Cooler temperatures will settle in for Monday with increasing cloudiness and a stray shower possible Monday night into Tuesday.
- Warm and dry weather look to return for the second half of the week.
DISCUSSION
Upper ridging on Sunday will begin to flatten into a zonal flow regime across eastern Montana and the Northern High Plains tonight into Monday. This will guide west surface winds Sunday afternoon across the area which may be gusty at times.
A fast moving shortwave will eject out of the Pacific Northwest and over the Northern Rockies and into eastern Montana and Wyoming Monday night and Tuesday. This will likely result in increased cloud cover and perhaps a stray shower, though most ensembles keep steadiest QPF to the southwest of the CWA.
Ensembles show a large high amplitude upper ridge becoming established over the western CONUS for the second half of the week which will result in prominent dry weather conditions and warmer temperatures as highs return to the 50s and 60s for much of NE Montana.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No deviation from the NBM.
NBM held the line this forecast cycle with above average confidence for mostly dry weather this week. The exception is Monday night into Tuesday with low end precipitation chances as that shortwave approaches. For now expect most places will see little if any measurable rainfall. Despite longer time ranges, ensembles are in full support of rebounding ridging late in the week, helping to guide dry and milder weather for the region.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: Sunday November 8, 2026 at 1830Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: Look for VFR conditions today aside from mid to high level cloudiness at times.
WIND: South southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northwest around 11 knots after 01Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM MST Monday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.
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