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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Gusty NW winds are anticipated today. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect till 5 pm.
- After a cooler than normal day today, temps will peak Saturday, well above normal.
- Starting Sunday, temps will hover near or slightly above normal. Dry conditions are expected throughout the next 7 days.
DISCUSSION
A cold front associated with an upper-level trough digging over eastern Montana will be well to our southeast Thursday morning. NW winds in its wake will continue through Thursday, diminishing by Thursday evening. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect through Thursday.
The trough will rapidly exit eastward Thursday evening ahead of a strong upper-level ridge building over the western United States. The ridging pattern will produce warm and dry conditions Friday and Saturday.
The ridge will gradually translate eastward ahead of an approaching upper-level trough over the weekend. Minor perturbations embedded within the resultant SW flow aloft may elevate winds slightly early in the weekend, but no significant deviations from the ridge-induced weather regime are expected.
The aforementioned trough is expected to weaken before digging over Montana by Sunday morning, resulting in a dry frontal passage Saturday night and daily high temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s throughout the first half of next week.
Flow aloft over the central United States will back SW over the course of Monday as an Aleutian low digs southward, settling off the coast of central California by Tuesday morning. Current model guidance indicates the atmosphere will be relatively dry during this period. Little change to the perceptible weather is anticipated.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
- There is high confidence in conditions remaining largely benign throughout the forecast period.
- No deviations from the NBM. TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0530Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
Discussion: NW winds will gust to 40 to 45 mph, diminishing by evening.
Clouds about 3-4k ft agl will drop south from Canada this morning then move east into the Dakotas by evening. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible. Any precipitation should stay to the NE & E of the airports.
LLWS: Some LLWS is possible until about 16z. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM MDT Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield- McCone-Petroleum.
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