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KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures and chinook winds are occuring today; a High Wind Warning is in place from the Little Rocky Mountains through Fort Peck Lake.

- A subtle stationary front is expected to bring a chance for rain on Wednesday morning into the early afternoon.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected through Friday with some highs in the 70s. Temperatures return to normal briefly Sunday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A chinook pattern over the area has allowed strong to intense winds to come up today. There is a High Wind Warning over the western portion of the area through 6 PM today for these winds. The latest HREF 75th to 90th percentile wind gusts reach criteria (58 mph gust) over the Little Rockies area, so the High Wind Warning has been extended through midnight tonight. Then a weak stationary front is expected to make its way into the area tomorrow morning, so there are chances for light rain expected between 6 AM and 3 PM. Precipitation amounts look minimal with most areas expected to receive less than 0.03 hundredths of precipitation. The latest 12Z HREF suggests most of the precipitation that occurs will be closer to central Montana.

This pattern will remain in place as above average temperatures are expected to continue through at least Friday. This will allow for strong winds to occur again tomorrow. The latest HREF is not aggressive with wind gusts reaching 58 mph tomorrow, so no wind products are expected to be issued at this time.

Expect widespread rapid snowmelt over the next couple days, and eventual snow melt for Petroleum County. Flatwillow Creek and other area drainages will need to be closely monitored for high water and flooding concerns.

This ridge will remain over the western states through the end of the week with warm and generally dry weather. The next chance for any light precipitation will be over the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Deviations include a 25/75 blend of NBM/NBM90 at various times through Day 2. Increased PoPs on Wednesday morning into the early afternoon to account for the weak disturbance.

There is moderate to high confidence in gusts reaching 58 mph for the Little Rockies through midnight, and low confidence elsewhere.

There is moderate confidence of rainfall occurring tomorrow, and high confidence in precipitation remaining below 0.03 inches overall.

There is high confidence in temperatures through the weekend.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1700Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

DISCUSSION: Some chinook mid to high level clouds are expected to continue moving through the area today into tonight.

A weak stationary front is expected to creep into the area tomorrow morning, so there is a chance of light rain between 12Z and 21Z. There is moderate to high confidence that VFR ceilings will remain in place though.

LLWS: Northwesterly low level wind shear is expected across the terminals from around 00Z to 16Z.

WIND: Mainly northwest at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after 03Z, becoming west at 15 to 25 knots with gust to 35 knots after 17Z.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum.

High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Southwest Phillips.