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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and dry conditions may elevate fire weather concerns on Friday.
- Markedly colder temperatures will follow this weekend with chances for rain and snow. Minor snow accumulation is expected (mostly less than one inch, especially on elevated surfaces).
DISCUSSION
Latest Update: 0615Z
The upper ridge will be about the same strength tomorrow, and then increase in intensity on Friday before a trough moves in for Saturday. There is potential for scattered fire weather conditions on Friday since well above average temperatures will occur.
Mostly dry conditions on Saturday morning are expected to be replaced by rain showers as a cold front moves through. A tenth to a quarter inch of accumulation is expected south of the Missouri River, and mainly less than a quarter inch north of the river through Monday evening. The Little Rockies has up to an inch of snow possible on grass and tree limbs through Monday evening. Other locations have mostly a trace expected in that time (less than one inch). A decent dusting may be a great opportunity for pictures, especially on Monday afternoon in the west if clouds clear out a bit.
Although there is some uncertainty beyond Monday, weak troughing appears as though it will remain in place to bring chances for precipitation again in the middle of the week. This is according to the GFS ensemble anyway.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Increased winds on day 1 and 2 in the afternoons and decreased Relative humidity on Friday afternoon.
There is moderate confidence on both winds being within +/- 8 knots of the forecast, and precipitation amounts through Monday.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0615Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: Mid-to-high level clouds and quiet weather is expected.
WINDS: For KGGW, southeast at 8 to 12 knots becoming light and variable after 15Z, becoming northwest at 7 to 12 knots after 18Z, switching back to southeast after 03Z. For all other sites, light and variable becoming south at 7 to 11 knots after 16Z, becoming southwest after 20Z, becoming northwest after 22Z, becoming light and variable after 01Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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