textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry, conditions continue elevate fire weather concerns today, particularly for Fire Zone 137.

- Potential record high temperatures may be seen across the CWA today.

- Markedly cooler temps will follow this weekend with increasing chances for rain and snow. Trace snow possible for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Weak ridging conditions aloft will persist through Saturday. A warm front is expected to lift through the CWA by this morning, advecting above average temperatures and limited downsloping winds towards our region. There is a chance of tying/breaking Friday's high temperature record in Glasgow (84 degrees - 2004) as temperatures may peak into the upper-80s for some locations. This also poses some elevated Fire Weather risk potential. High temperature, low RH, will be conducive for Fire Weather in Zone 137. However, winds themselves do not look high enough to provide explosive fire growth over a long enough time span.

This afternoon through Monday evening: Anticipate a steep temperature drop off tonight as a cold front moves through. Lift along an incoming trough will begin causing rain Saturday night through Monday with a transition into a wintry mix possible at higher elevation Sunday night. Trace amounts of snow will be possible, but accumulation at most locations other than the Little Rockies are not likely with warm ground.

Tuesday onwards: Ensemble data sets begin to fall out of phase around Tuesday night decreasing confidence in the forecast over all. What little is starting to show is a weak ridging Tuesday/Tuesday night for briefly drier conditions followed by another trough wave somewhere around Wednesday night. Slightly increased PoP chances over climo are expected Wednesday to Thursday, but temperatures will be much lower throughout these periods than the past couple days.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NO deviations from NBM occured.

Low confidence in precipitation type Sunday through Monday.

FIN/GAH

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0400Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

LLWS: Low level wind shear is possible from 08 to 15Z for a couple hours with a light warm frontal passage. Chances(20-60%) are too small to include in most terminals directly.

DISCUSSION: Mid-to-high level clouds and quiet weather is to be expected.

WINDS: S to E and light through the morning. Veering SW and increasing to 5 to 15 kts this afternoon. Calming to less than 10 kts early this evening. Veering NW around midnight behind a cold front through Saturday morning.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.