textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong west winds are expected today. Gusts up to 60 mph in the Little Rockies this morning and up to 55 mph elsewhere are possible.

- Showers and thunderstorms will move through NE Montana this afternoon and evening.

- Warm day ahead a cold front Thursday, then cooler with the chance of showers through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A strong upper low is over southern Saskatchewan early this morning. The low will move northeast into Manitoba today. Meanwhile, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific NW early this morning will move east across western Montana this morning and through eastern Montana this afternoon and evening bring showers and thunderstorms with it.

Strong west winds are expected tonight and Tuesday with the exception of decoupling at times tonight allow for lighter winds in some areas. The higher elevations of the Little Rockies should have the strongest winds tonight where 50 knots 850 mb winds could bring gusts to 60 mph at times. Issued a High Wind Warning for SW Phillips County until 9 am. Will also continue a Lake Wind Advisory until midnight tonight.

Winds will diminish tonight as surface high pressure moves into the area. Look for sunshine and warmer temperatures on Wednesday with highs near normal, mid 70s to near 80 for the CWA.

On Thursday, the next disturbance moves east from western Canada with a cold front approaching the CWA. Temps should reach near 80 across the northern zones and possibly near 90 in the southeast zones. With Min RH in the teens and an increasing West wind, fire weather highlights may need to be considered.

Ensembles then show a much cooler period expected starting Friday with shower chances increasing. Look for high temps to drop into the 60s, possibly 50s if steadier rainshowers occur over the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Forecast confidence is high for strong winds today. Confidence is high north and low south for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Increased wind speeds early this morning in the Little Rockies. Otherwise, no changes to NBM.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0600Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR early then MVFR after 12z at KGGW & KOLF and after 17z at KSDY. VFR tonight.

DISCUSSION: Low clouds will move into the area this morning with MVFR CIGS most of the time today at KGGW and KOLF and this afternoon at KSDY. Showers and thunderstorms are possible at times this afternoon and evening. Low clouds will clear tonight.

Strong west winds are expected to at 20 to 30 knots with gusts approaching 40 knots at times. West winds will diminish to 10 to 15 knots tonight.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield- McCone-Petroleum.

High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT Tuesday for Southwest Phillips.