textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer and drier weather conditions will be the main focus for NE Montana now through Wednesday afternoon.

- Thunderstorms are expected later Wednesday evening. Strong, gusty winds can be expected with some of these with gusts to 60 mph possible.

- A strong cold front will bring much colder conditions and gusty winds, along with some accumulating snow near and north of US- Highway 2 and in the Little Rockies (SW Phillips county).

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The forecast for NE Montana over the next several days will be highly variable with strong swings in temperatures, precipiation amounts, and precipitation types. The 500-mb height field is characterized by a strong ridge of high pressure through the eastern Rockies and High Plains regions through Wednesday. This is expected to bring near record high temperatures to many locations through Wednesday.

Later on Wednesday, an approaching strong low pressure storm system from the Great Basin and the Northern and Central Rocky Mountain Regions will provide enough of an unstable atmosphere to allow efficient rain showers and thunderstorms to develop. Convective outlook from SPC continues with just general thunderstorms, however the large temperature/dewpoint spread could support strong wind gusts. The limiting factor may actually be too large a T/Td spread, with the warm front lifting through during the day, and low level winds turning to a drier southwest direction.

Fire weather concerns are also increased with the dry and warm conditions especially on Wednesday. Greenup is underway but not sufficient enough and Fire Weather Watches have been issued.

As the system winds up and matures over our region, a strong cold front will sweep down from Saskatchewan and change some of the expected rain fall over to a rain/snow mix on Thursday.

By Thursday evening and through most of the upcoming weekend, behind this strong cold front, temperatures will be cold enough to allow for a complete change over to all snow, especially near and north of the Hi-Line. Gusty winds associated with this low pressure center will easily be sustained in excess of 30 mph with gusts in excess of 40 mph. Forecast wind chills through this time range from 10 to 20 degrees above zero. It'll feel like a slap in the proverbial face.

Overall, total precipitation is expected to be anywhere between 0.10 and 0.50 inch, a significant drop from previous model runs. Snowfall could be 1 to 3 inches for some favored northern locations and in the Little Rocky Mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Blended Max Temp Wednesday with NBM90, which resulted in lower MinRH.

Also blended winds midnight Wednesday Night through midnight Thursday night with NBM90. TFJ

AVIATION

UPDATED: 2030z

FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR.

DISCUSSION: High clouds will continue to stream through Wednesday. Winds will increase from the East tonight, then from the SE early Wednesday turning to the South then Southwest Wednesday afternoon. TFJ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.

High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley- Petroleum-Southwest Phillips.

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-McCone-Prairie-Richland- Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties.