textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected across NE Montana between 2PM and 10 PM today. A few storms may be severe with damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and lightning. - Warm and dry weather conditions will prevail on the 4th of July.

- Hot and dry weather are expected to begin with on Sunday before the next cold front brings late day thunderstorms to the area

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today across NE Montana, especially from 2PM to 10PM. HREF ensembles continue to show the activity moving in from central MT and tracking east during the afternoon and evening hours before sliding into ND in the late evening. A few storms may be severe with large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and lightning.

Warm and dry weather are expected for the 4th of July, with a continued warm up during the day on Sunday. Late day temperatures should reach the mid to upper 80s for most locations and a few areas topping the low 90s. Ahead of an approaching cold front, the Yellowstone River Valley may see some compressional warming and highs may reach the mid 90s. In addition, this frontal passage will be a focal point for new shower and thunderstorm chances.

Monday will be seasonably warm and dry with upper ridging before the next trough tracks in from the west during the midweek with the next chances for showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM was largely used for this forecast cycle. An exception included some modest near term adjustments to pops for consistency and collaboration. Confidence is above average for today's thunderstorm chances across the area, but there is uncertainty in precipitation amounts due to the hit and miss nature of the scattered expected coverage. Confidence is also high on warm and dry weather for the 4th of July with fairly strong ensemble consensus for the next system approaching late Sunday and the trough pattern evolving by the middle of next week despite some timing differences.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1915Z Friday July 3rd.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR. MVFR-IFR in thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected between 21Z and 04Z across the area. A few of the storms may be strong to severe with a hail and a wind threat along with brief heavy rain and lightning. These storms may also briefly reduce visibility down below 3 miles.

WIND: Generally south to southeast winds will prevail through tonight. That said, gusty and shifting winds are expected near storms.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.