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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Active weather is expected through Tuesday with heavy rain possible at times.

- Temperatures warm starting on Tuesday and get warmer each day through Friday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper low will slowly move across Montana through Monday with cool temperatures and frequent showers with thunderstorms at times. With very saturated ground, any storms with heavy rain could produce additional flooding issues. Winds will increase on the back side of the system with cold air advection leading to Lake Wind conditions for this afternoon and evening.

With the upper trough moving east by midweek, temperatures will be on the rise into the holiday weekend. Fairly persistent weak trough over the Pacific Northwest will support occasional chances for showers and storm action.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Blended NBM90 into the wind forecast, to account for recent under performance with wind speeds.

There is moderate confidence in rainfall amounts through Monday and in temperatures climbing above average in early July.

AVIATION

VFR to MVFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the region today with patchy low clouds and fog.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 2 AM MDT Monday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley- Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.

IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.

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