textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Ridge over the region will bring warming temperatures, peaking on Saturday.

- A cold front passage late on Saturday will drop temperatures back closer to normal for next week.

- Dry conditions are expected through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

As a surface high exits our region, a weak surface trough will be in place to advect cooler temperatures into our CWA today. A high pressure center aloft, causing a weak rex block configuration in the southwest US, will promote NW flow aloft. A ridge will then build and disrupt this NW flow aloft, causing winds to veer SW throughout Saturday. Ridging conditions with SW flow aloft, will usher in warmer temperatures. Upper-level perturbations may locally heighten forecast temperatures.

The rex block setup in the southwestern US will be short-lived as a shortwave trough ejects back into the main flow; causing the flow to produce conditions that cannot maintain warm temperatures, due to the absence of a ridge. On Sunday, expect a drop in temperatures with a cold frontal passage Sunday morning, with northwesterly flow from Canada. High pressure filters in behind the cold front, bringing warmer than average temperatures into Monday, onward.

An upper-level trough enters the synoptic picture come Tuesday, digging from the Gulf of Alaska into the desert southwest region. This trough will cause SW/SSW flow aloft, creating ridging conditions aloft for our CWA. Anticipate slightly warmer than average temperatures to advect their way from the southwestern US to our region. Expect dry, mostly sunny conditions throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

- There is high confidence in conditions remaining unchanging throughout the forecast period.

- Temperatures deviating higher in latest runs of NBM, regarding next week.

- After Wednesday, NWP guidance begins to prompt obvious uncertainty between the GEFS and EPS, as for PoPs, heights, and a wider spread of temperatures are seen.

FINDLEY

AVIATION

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

Discussion: Generally clear skies expected through the TAF cycle with some brief VFR clouds Saturday morning.

Wind: South to southwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon and evening then decreasing overnight. Winds in KGGW will transition to a southeasterly direction tonight then veer back towards the west-southwest by afternoon. Some gusty conditions are possible around the end of the forecast period, particularly in KSDY and KGDV.

LLWS: Low level wind shear is possible around the KGDV terminal between 07Z and 13Z Saturday morning with the highest confidence being between 09Z and 12Z. Areas around KSDY may also experience some LLWS between 04Z and 10Z, but confidence is too low to be put into the TAF.

KENZ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.