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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will persist across eastern Montana this afternoon.

- Warm and dry conditions will finish out the holiday weekend before a cold front swings through the region on Tuesday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge will build back into the region with dry and warm weather over northeast Montana through Labor Day.

A fairly strong closed low pressure system will swing through central Canada on Tuesday, as it tracks toward the Great Lakes. This will drop a cold front into Montana. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible, mainly near the North Dakota border with the front. Pressure rises and cold air advection suggests wind speeds may increase, and may reach Lake Wind criteria, but models are not indicating this yet. Current guidance suggests slower cold air advection, which may suppress the winds slightly. Cooler temperatures linger into the weekend with the strong low lingering over the Great Lakes.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

No major deviations from the NBM, aside from the first 24 to 36 hours where mostly hi-res models were favored for detailed PoPs and winds.

AVIATION

VFR. Expect calm and near dry conditions this morning. A few isolated showers may be possible northeast of the terminals briefly this afternoon before going dry again in the evening.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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