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KEY MESSAGES

- A ridge is expected to help temperatures climb to around normal to above normal by Thursday.

- A generally dry pattern is expected through Sunday. Increases in precipitation are possible beginning Sunday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level ridge will slowly be building in starting today, so temperatures will continue to rise closer to normal highs by Thursday.

The GFS and ECMWF ensembles are suggesting a flattening of the ridge on Sunday, so low chances of precipitation and thunderstorms have potential to move in by then.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There are no deviations.

There is high confidence in temperatures through the weekend.

There is moderate to high confidence in critical fire weather occurring on Thursday.

There is low confidence in accumulating precipitation starting on Sunday.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1830Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions are expected through the cycle with a few mid to high clouds.

WIND: West Northwest at 10 to 18 knots with gusts to 24 knots, decreasing to light and variable after 02Z, becoming south at 5 to 10 knots after 12Z, becoming west at 10 to 18 knots after 18Z Wednesday.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties- Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.