textproduct: Glasgow

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Upper ridging will help keep warm conditions over the area today and tomorrow.

- There is potential for showers and storms tonight, and this activity will persist through the weekend as a trough moves in.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The latest REFS model from this morning has a shortwave trough around 2 PM today and then another one around 9 PM riding through the upper ridge. This along with southeasterly flow near the surface and water vapor moving in will give a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight, and then again tomorrow evening. There is potential for severe winds in the west tonight. A trough is expected to bring temperatures down about 10 degrees this weekend, and showers and storms are expected. There is a decent chance of a few locations receiving at least a wetting rain on Sunday, and a slight chance of exceeding a quarter inch. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles both indicate that northeast Montana will be situated between an upper ridge and trough next week, but certainty is low on the exact pattern.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Only deviation to NBM was to PoPs through Saturday evening.

There is moderate to high confidence of showers and storms affecting various parts of the area trough Sunday evening. There is moderate to high confidence of a wetting rain occurring this weekend, and low confidence on areas receiving over a quarter of an inch.

There is low to moderate confidence in severe winds occurring late this evening.

There is low to moderate confidence on whether an upper ridge will build in again early next week.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1830Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: Mostly VFR, with MVFR in thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION: A shortwave trough this evening and tomorrow evening will try to ride their way through the upper ridge in place. The main timeframe for thunderstorms is from 06Z to 14Z Friday, and then again after 21Z Friday. There is low to moderate confidence (20 to 40 percent) of these storms bringing MVFR conditions during the aforementioned times.

WINDS: SE at 5 to 15 kts with gusts from 20 to 25 knots, becoming light and variable after 11Z, becoming northwest at 5 to 11 knots after 18Z Friday. Erratic gusty winds possible near any thunderstorm.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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