textproduct: Glasgow
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening with an isolated severe hail and wind threat.
- The next frontal system will approach the area with more widespread thunderstorms on Monday night and Tuesday. Isolated severe storms are possible but heavy rainfall is an increasing concern.
- Unsettled weather will likely continue through at least the midweek.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Sunday will feature very warm and dry conditions, with highs in the Yellowstone River Valley well into the 90s. A cold front will be accompanied by a few thunderstorms Sunday evening. HREF ensemble max wind gust and updraft helicity shows support for an isolated severe storm, especially into the southwest zones tracking in from Central MT.
A very aggressive shortwave will approach on southwest flow aloft Monday night into Tuesday. This will provide dynamic forcing for ascent in a very moisture rich environment. Widespread thunderstorms are expected to unfold with forecast soundings showing precipitable water values exceeding an inch across the area. Given the flash flooding that occurred Friday night in the Glasgow area, the ground is already likely nearly saturated. Thus, this period will need to be monitored for not only an isolated severe risk, but the potential impacts compounding from additional heavy rainfall.
Ensembles show a continuing progressive weather pattern unfolding with a shortwave ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by the next weather system arriving for Wednesday night. All told, expect thunderstorm chances to continue at times through at least the middle part of the upcoming week.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Pops were adjusted in the short term for consistency and collaboration with neighbors. Otherwise, the overall confidence is growing on the next significant precipitation event occurring on Monday night into Tuesday.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1915Z Saturday July 4th.
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
DISCUSSION: Excellent flying weather will continue through tonight despite a few high to mid clouds from time to time. WIND: South winds will range 5 to 10 kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable after 03Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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