textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather is expected into the weekend. Warmest temps are expected Wednesday.

- The one big exception to dry is late Wednesday afternoon into the night when a disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms. Some storms across the north could be severe with damaging winds.

- Sunday onward expect cooler temps with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms into the week.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Synoptic setup: A ridge runs from Nebraska through eastern Montana and the high plains of Alberta. A large trough drops south along the Pacific coastline from the Alaska Panhandle to northern California. Between these features Southern to Southwest flow resides from central California to western Montana.

Today through Wednesday mid day: Expect mid to high chinook arch clouds across the region as a ridge moves across northeast Montana. This should keep things dry initially.

Wednesday late afternoon through Wednesday night: As the ridge shifts east SW flow and a mid level disturbance will pass over Montana. Afternoon showers over central Montana will expand east slowly through the late afternoon and into northeast Montana in the evening. Wind Gusts currently look to be the main threat with 60+ mph showing HREF Max Wind Gusts. However these gusts appear to moderate out into the evening hours around the time they move into northeast Montana. SPC has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for areas south of the Missouri River and general thunder for areas south.

Thursday into Saturday expect dry and above normal conditions.

Sunday onward: Chances for rain showers slowly rise through these periods while temperatures drop back down to climatological normal. However model ensemble begins to break apart during this time so individual members are not in agreement with each other over details or timing. GAH

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No Deviations from NBM were observed.

Confidence is normal to above normal through Friday.

Confidence is normal to below normal from Sunday onward as models begin to fall apart from about Saturday night onward.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1700Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: VFR with clear skies early. High to mid level clouds will spread across the region from the southeast throughout the day.

WIND: SE to E at 10 to 15 kts gust 20 kts today through this evening. Calming to 10 kts or less overnight at KSDY and KGDV. Then increasing to 10 to 15 kts gust 20 kts Wednesday afternoon.

GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.