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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Much warmer and drier weather conditions will be the main focus for NE Montana for the weekend, extending into early next week.
- Confidence is growing on a more active and wetter weather pattern emerging for the second half of next week.
- Temperatures are also likely to shift back toward cooler than normal readings by the end of next week.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Upper ridging is starting to take hold across the Northern Rockies and extending into the Northern High Plains this weekend into early next week. This will lead to increasingly warm temperatures and dry weather conditions from large scale subsidence. Even the more conservative NBM high temperatures that are running around the 10th percentile are showing widespread 70s on Monday with mostly 80s on Tuesday.
Ensemble clusters are continuing to show the ridge axis sliding downstream of the region with the next trough becoming established over the western U.S. starting Tuesday night or Wednesday. This pattern will send diffluent southwest upper flow into eastern Montana with ample Pacific moisture. The trough and low pressure system will gradually track east, maintaining rain and snow chances at times for the second half of next week, along with markedly cooler temperatures.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
The base forecast was largely followed over the next several days. Given very high confidence for strong upper level ridging, trended toward the NBM 50th percentile for daytime temperatures and humidity through Tuesday. Confidence remains moderate for most of NE Montana to see between 1/4" and 3/4" of precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday night based on ensemble consensus. Thus, confidence is relatively high on a shifting pattern toward cooler and wetter weather midweek, but more nebulous on specific amounts and precipitation type.
-JEZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: Saturday, April 18 at 1915Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: Benign conditions will prevail through Sunday amid mid level clouds from time to time.
WIND: Northwest winds around 15 gust 25 knots become light and variable this evening. Then, a pivot to the southeast around 10 knots after 12Z Sunday.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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