textproduct: Glasgow

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES: - Low pressure circulation will sweep through southern and eastern portions of our region through Thursday with minor chances for rain along the MT/ND boarder. - Drier weather conditions will arrive from the west later this week, as temperatures remain seasonable.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Today into Thursday: Two lows are currently moving across the area with the first situated over Wyoming and the second dropping out of southern Saskatchewan into North Dakota. These lows are dancing around each other as they slowly translate east. Southern showers are exiting the area early this morning as a new set of showers may develop near the MT/ND/SK triple point and slowly exit east through Thursday. This passage should bring nothing more than very isolated rain showers during this time.

Thursday night into Sunday: Flow will become northwest and dry out as a ridge approaches the area and moves through on Sunday. Expect gradually rising temperatures and dry conditions.

Sunday night into Monday: the ridge will topple over with a weak front moving through the area and bringing a few isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Monday night onward: Flow will become semi-zonal with a weak ridge to the west. This will allow for warm and dry conditions to again take hold again through early next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence for Thursday afternoon is currently lowered with a several CAMs showing some kind of disturbance moving down the rapidly reestablishing northwest flow that will affect the western half of the CWA. Meanwhile, NBM ensembles do not show this in any meaningful way. As this is the first set of CAMs to barely see this, have held off on modifying the PoPs/QPF, but confidence has been reduced to moderate for that time period on dry conditions.

GAH

AVIATION

UPDATE: 0800Z

FLIGHT CAT RANG: VFR

DISCUSSION: Just mid to High clouds at most locations. A Slight chance (10-20%) for a light rain shower is possible for KGDV & KSDY through the TAF cycle, but it too low to include in the TAFs directly.

WIND: Light and variable through this morning. Becoming NE at 10 kts or less this afternoon. Veering E this evening through tonight.

EQUIPMENT: Comms issues with the KSDY observation remain. AMD NOT SKED will remain in place until METARs are available.

GAH

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.