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KEY MESSAGES

- A back door cold front will move through the area this afternoon. Lower temperatures north of the Missouri River are expected to occur on Friday.

- NW winds and low RH will create critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening south of the Missouri River. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

- A slight chance of a shower is expected in the north tonight. Chances for precipitation are possible on Saturday night and then again on Monday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The ECMWF and GFS ensemble both suggest an upper trough will linger over Manitoba through the next 7 days. This will not bring much for precipitation chances beside a brief passing shower in the far north tonight. Wildfire smoke is expected to move in briefly through the evening before exiting southeastward with the cold front that is currently moving through area. The HRRR goes out 48 hours and the RAP model goes about 51 hours at the maximum, so there is not a forecast for smoke just yet beyond two days into the future. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Fort Peck Lake and Red Flag Warning in effect south of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening.

The upper trough in Manitoba and shortwave troughs moving through the overall flow are suggested by the ECMWF and GFS ensembles for Saturday night, and then again on Monday. There is some indication of this active pattern lingering past Monday to bring on and off chances for precipitation.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The only deviation was to increase winds with the cold front moving through this afternoon.

There is high confidence in the Lake Wind Advisory today.

There is low confidence on precipitation occurring in the far north overnight.

There is moderate confidence of isolated smoke and haze reducing visibility slightly around midday today.

There is high confidence in critical fire weather occurring this afternoon south of the Missouri River.

There is low confidence on accumulating precipitation occurring this weekend.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1830Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions are expected through the cycle with some overcast mid clouds overnight. There is moderate confidence of wildfire smoke reducing visibility to around 6 miles through this evening before moving out of the area overnight. WIND: Southwest around 10 knots, becoming north northwest at 15 to 22 knots with gusts to 32 knots after 20Z, decreasing to light and variable after 07Z.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Southern Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.