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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Periods of rain with isolated embedded thunder will continue for Friday along with below average temperatures.
- Rain chances will diminish in coverage this weekend while temperatures steadily rise back to near normal by Sunday and Monday.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Periods of rain with embedded thunder look to continue today before diminishing from west to east tonight as low pressure shifts away from the region. An additional 0.25" to 0.50" of rainfall accumulation are possible with the steadier showers before diminishing.
Precipitation chances will be more isolated over the weekend while temperatures look to rebound. Highs by Sunday into Monday should push back into the 80s for much of NE Montana thanks to some ridging extending over the area with the axis remaining to the west.
That ridge looks to flatten by Monday night and Tuesday as the next trough sets up over the Pacific Northwest. This will allow for the next chance for steadier and more widespread rain showers to overtake the region.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Temperatures were adjusted for Friday morning lows in coordination with neighbors. Pops were also adjusted over the short term for collaboration and consistency. Overall, NBM held the line through much of the forecast period. Confidence is high on cool and wet weather continuing for Friday with showers diminishing over the weekend.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: Friday August 14 at 0615Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR to IFR.
DISCUSSION: Rain will continue at times with reduced visibility in the steadier showers along with associated low stratus.
WIND: Winds will become north to northwest by Friday afternoon at 5 to 15 kts, diminishing to under 10 kts at night.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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