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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry weather conditions will continue into Thursday night.
- Temperatures will remain at or above seasonable norms as well.
- Precipitation chances increase into Friday, with the best chance Friday and Friday night. - Cooler and drier weather expected for the weekend, with that continuing into early next week.
DISCUSSION
A weak cold front passed SE through the CWA overnight with a weak surface high expected to pass east over southern Sask overnight tonight.
A fairly large upper low off the California coast will keep an induced ridge to its east, allowing NE MT to experience dry conditions and warmer than normal temps through Friday.
But the upper low will merge with the northern stream jet and move into Montana Friday. This will pull up moisture from the Desert SW while a surface low developing over the CWA moves to our NE this weekend. This will allow NW winds to increase late Friday behind a cold front. Rain showers behind the cold front will move NE across the western zones. The showers are expected to exit the CWA late Friday night/Saturday with significantly cooler high temps Saturday.
Rough conditions on Fort Peck Lake can be expected beginning Friday afternoon (western portion) through Saturday. Check the forecast if you have plans to visit the area later this week.
Rainfall amounts still look to be greatest over the NW half of the CWA with the total amount expected less than a half inch.
Beyond Saturday, temps look to remain below normal as an upper ridge early next week doen't nudge east of the Pac NW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Left what the NBM gave me for weather elements today. As usual, confidence is shaky with rainfall amounts later this week. There was a slight decrease with total rainfall (QPF) for Friday through Saturday morning. TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1910Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: Clear, dry and quiet conditions are expected to continue through Thursday.
WIND: Light and variable but approaching 10kts from the SE at KGGW Wednesday morning.
TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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