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KEY MESSAGES

- The next chances for light rain and snow are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- A High Wind Watch remains in effect for Phillips County for Thursday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The balance of the week will feature a roller coaster temperature ride along with light mixed precipitation at times and a threat for high winds.

The stage is set for clouds to increase from the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday with a light mix of rain and snow. This will occur along a boundary with cooler temperatures to the northeast and milder temperatures across the southwestern parts of the CWA while a shortwave pushes through relatively zonal northwest upper flow. These milder temperatures will spread northeast across the entire region for Wednesday and Thursday. On Thursday the high temperatures will be pushing 50 to 55 degrees across much of NE Montana.

NBM continues to show the trade off for the milder weather will be strong gusty winds across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. West winds may range 20 to 30 mph across the region with gusts to 40 to 50 mph area wide. Gusts to 60 mph are exceedingly likely over higher elevations of the Little Rockies. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for Phillips County for Thursday.

Late this week extending into the weekend, temperatures will fall in response to a retrograding cold front, which will bring with it increased chances for snow by the weekend as well. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Given the strong westerly flow expected on Wednesday into Thursday, the forecast was nudged toward NBM90 in support of the High Wind Headlines. Excellent consensus has emerged among ensembles in recent days on this event and confidence should only increase as high resolution model guidance become available as this enters the short term window.

AVIATION

UPDATE: 0515Z Tuesday February 24

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: VFR mid and high ceilings will continue with a transition to mostly clear skies on Tuesday. Cloud cover looks to increase again from the southwest Tuesday night.

WINDS: Tonight, from the W at 10 to 15 kts with occasional higher gusts. Winds will become lighter from the northwest on Tuesday morning before becoming light and variable Tuesday afternoon or evening.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for Central and Southeast Phillips-Northern Phillips-Southwest Phillips.