textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions are likely today with east winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph expected.

- Increasing temperatures through Friday, then slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend before warming back up next week.

- Chances of scattered showers return Thursday evening and becomes more widespread going into the evening hours on Friday through the weekend. 0.50" to 1.00" amounts are likely with localized heavy rain possible where embedded thunderstorms develop.

DISCUSSION

SYNOPTIC SETUP:

Gradual ridging continues over the Northern Rockies and into Northeast Montana, keeping conditions dry. Patchy fog over western North Dakota may sneak into some eastern zones before daytime heating evaporates it by noon. East winds were increasing and should see that continue through the afternoon hours today. A lake wind advisory remains in effect for Fort Peck Lake with east winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph expected.

A closed upper low over northern California will begin moving in our direction the next several days. The system moves through southern Montana and Wyoming so scattered showers and thunderstorms that move through should soak those areas better than our CWA. But we should see our fairshare Friday night through Saturday.

A low pressure system continues to move south into the northern Californian region and is being closed off by a gradual northern stream trough ejecting eastward. The disturbance will lift into Montana over the weekend, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Scattered showers will be more concentrated along the MT/ND border on Friday morning, then become more widespread across the region by Friday evening through the weekend. Patchy fog or at least low cloud ceilings may plague mainly eastern zones Friday morning.

Current model guidance indicate 0.50" to 1.00" of total rainfall, but the latest NBM run highlights the southern zones to receive the most with the least amounts over the NW zones. Localized heavy rain will be possible in places where embedded thunderstorms develop. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Friday through Saturday.

Weak ridging will build on the backside of the departing low on Monday, allowing for drying conditions and an increase in temperatures going into next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: - Mixed today's winds with NBM90, otherwise all other elements were defaulted to NBM.

- Confidence in rain chances this weekend are moderate and increasing across the CWA, although there is less confidence in northwestern zones.

- Confidence in amounts is increasing, with embedded thunderstorms expected to create localized heavier rain in some areas.

TFJ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 0500Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR through tonight.

DISCUSSION: Today should feature another day with good visibility and VFR clouds over KSDY and KGDV. Patchy early morning fog could temporarily lower visibilities this morning. Clouds are expected to lower tonight with the possibility of MVFR clouds Friday.

SFC Wind: East winds will increase today reaching 15kts with gusts to 30 kts diminishing late tonight.

TFJ

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.