textproduct: Glasgow

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of showers and isolated thunder will continue at times again through Wednesday.

- The upper low will shift through midweek with a brief dry window Wednesday evening into early Thursday. The next system will quickly approach from the west for a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon & evening.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The slow moving upper low will continue to bring cool and wet conditions to NE Montana over the next couple of days. Look for periods of showers and an isolated thunderstorm to continue at times through at least Wednesday. Wednesday evening will see the low shift east with drying weather conditions.

For Thursday, the next shortwave will track in from the west with the next round of thunderstorms. Some of the storms in the afternoon and evening may offer heavy rainfall. The potential for a few stronger storms will also be monitored as the high resolution model guidance better handles this in the coming days.

Ensembles are also indicating warmer temperatures to return to the region for the second half of the week once that disturbance tracks east and the ridge axis becomes anchored over eastern Montana.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

NBM was well suited to handle the forecast this cycle which captured overall expected trends well. In the coming days, refining the finer details surrounding pops and thunderstorm chances for Thursday may be appropriate.

Confidence otherwise remains above average on cool and wet conditions at times through the middle of the week given excellent ensemble consensus. There is also increasing concern with regard to the next chance for thunderstorms across the area for Thursday.

AVIATION

VFR to MVFR. Another wave of showers and thunderstorms will make its way up the Yellowstone valley during the early morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to maintain at KGGW and KOLF through the cycle.

GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.