textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of North Texas through 3 PM Monday afternoon.
- Thunderstorms will continue this evening, particularly along the Red River. A few storms may be severe with damaging wind and hail. Heavy rain is also likely.
- A more widespread round of thunderstorms is expected to affect most of the area on tomorrow which will bring a threat for flooding and severe weather, including damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and hail.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Monday Night/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across North Texas where multiple ingredients have come together for widespread rainfall. In the upper levels, diffluence is helping to provide large scale, broad forcing for ascent that will continue through the night. Additionally, a shortwave is currently being advected by the jet stream, further amplifying the forcing for ascent. In the lower levels, strong southerly flow is aiding in advecting plenty of moisture into the region. This abundance of moisture, coupled with weak to moderate instability, will keep rain chances around through much of the night mainly north of the I-20 corridor. Given the continued rainfall potential, heavy rain will increase the potential for flash flooding within the Flood Watch.
The overall severe weather threat has diminished compared to this morning and early afternoon as the near-surface environment continues to cool. The greatest instability is likely to remain just west and north of our region where the trough is leading to cooler temperatures aloft. As the trough ejects eastward, rain chances will once again increase tomorrow morning.
The eastward movement of the trough will lead to the development of a surface low across the Texas Panhandle. The area of low pressure will shift into Oklahoma by the late morning hours. As it does so, a dryline will sharpen just west of our region and migrate eastward into a moist and unstable environment. Instability values will range between 1500-2000 J/Kg with strong environmental effective shear in place. This will promote the development of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of and along the dryline with large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes all possible. Individual storm motion will be to the north/northeast, however, the line of storms should migrate east through the afternoon and evening hours. As the line shifts eastward, low-level environmental shear will increase east of I-35 and north of I-20 as slight backing of the winds occurs. This will lead to a heightened threat for tornadoes during the mid to late afternoon hours. The severe weather threat will decrease as we approach sunset as storms continue moving away from our region. A few lingering showers or storms will still be possible after sunset, however, they are not expected to be severe.
Hernandez
LONG TERM
/Issued 144 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024/ Update:
Monday continues to look like a very active day with critical pieces of the severe weather puzzle coming together. The detailed discussion below is still valid and we will make no major changes to timing or expected weather for Monday/Monday night.
It also still looks like we will have a brief period of cooler and drier weather Tuesday into early Wednesday except for some lingering showers and storms across the east Tuesday morning. By Wednesday another powerful system is progged to deepen near the Four Corners region with moisture returning to the Southern Plains ahead of it. There are difference in the GFS and ECMWF on the fate of the upper low and the associated cold front but either solution will result in rain and thunderstorm chances Thursday through Saturday across North and Central Texas. Drier and cooler weather is expected behind the cold front on Sunday but more rain may be in store for the region by the middle of the month.
79
Previous Discussion: /Monday and Beyond/
By Monday morning, a strong upper-level trough and 110 kt jet streak will eject over West Texas leading to surface cyclogenesis over far northwest Texas. Scattered thunderstorms will start developing over portions of western North and Central Texas in the vicinity of this surface low and south along its eastward- advancing dryline near sunrise Monday morning. As this system continues its trek northeastward into eastern Oklahoma, expect this broken line of thunderstorms to shift east-west over our forecast area during the day Monday.
Strong low-level southerly flow and a 50-60 kt LLJ will aid in the transport of warm, moist air over much of North and Central Texas sustaining this line of storms as it pushes eastward. Daytime heating will lead to destabilization and an area of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will likely materialize generally along/east of the I-35 corridor by the early afternoon hours on Monday. Meridional mean flow will favor a more linear storm mode and damaging wind threat, but strong deep-layer shear and impressive low-level wind fields may support embedded circulations and/or supercellular structures within the line. With the latest suite of high-resolution guidance, there is increasing concern that a few discrete/semi-discrete cells may develop just ahead of the line Monday afternoon which would contain an increased threat for tornadoes and hail. The area that contains the best overlap of wind shear and instability looks to transpire generally east and northeast of the DFW Metroplex in the 12PM-7PM time frame Monday afternoon and evening. Remember, all modes of severe weather will be possible, so have multiple ways to receive weather warnings and check back frequently for forecast updates!
Thunderstorms will largely exit eastern North Texas by late Monday evening but may linger across portions of Central Texas into the late hours of Monday night-early Tuesday morning until this storm system's actual cold front pushes through the region. Most likely additional rainfall totals with this round of storms through Tuesday morning will average 0.5"-1.5". There's a 10-20% chance that locations east of I-35 pick up an additional 2.5+" of rainfall that could lead to localized flooding concerns.
A cooler, drier airmass will usher in behind the cold front just in time for Election Day with highs expected to peak in the 60s across most of the forecast area. Near-normal temperatures will persist through the midweek period. Another storm system will approach the Plains toward the second half of the work week increasing area-wide daily rain chances by late Wednesday through the end of the week. We are in a busier weather pattern folks, so make sure you are remaining Weather Aware!
Langfeld
AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/
VFR conditions prevail with mid-level clouds continuing to cover the North and Central Texas sky. Much of the rain continues to be north of the D10 airspace where the greatest ascent exists. This will continue to be the case through the night with no precipitation expected within the TAF sites.
Ceilings, however, will decrease to MVFR category tonight, lingering through around noon tomorrow. Along with the clouds, we'll see an uptick in wind speeds tomorrow in anticipation of the next round of storms.
Storms are expected to develop late tomorrow morning west of I-35 and move eastward through the day. Some of the storms will be capable of becoming severe with large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The thunderstorm potential will decrease beyond 23Z tomorrow as the line of storms shifts east. A few lingering showers will be possible, however, the bulk of the precipitation tomorrow evening will remain well east of our region.
Hernandez
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 76 56 66 53 / 40 90 60 20 0 Waco 71 80 56 69 48 / 10 90 80 20 0 Paris 68 78 57 67 48 / 50 100 90 30 5 Denton 66 75 51 67 46 / 60 90 50 10 0 McKinney 68 77 54 67 47 / 50 90 70 20 0 Dallas 68 78 56 68 51 / 30 90 70 20 0 Terrell 70 79 56 67 48 / 30 90 90 30 0 Corsicana 73 81 59 68 51 / 20 90 90 40 5 Temple 70 82 55 70 48 / 10 80 70 20 0 Mineral Wells 65 75 49 67 45 / 60 90 30 5 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ091>093-100>102.
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