textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- A tropical wave is expected to bring scattered thunderstorms to portions of Southeast Texas and the Brazos Valley Friday and Saturday.

- For many, the upcoming weekend and next week will be the hottest of the summer so far, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values ranging from 100 to 109.

..Friday and Saturday

A weak tropical disturbance will move into far East Texas and Louisiana from the Gulf. This will bring a chance (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon across Southeast Texas and the Brazos Valley. While no severe weather is expected, as with all summertime convection, there will be the potential for frequent lightning, isolated flooding, gusty winds and small hail with the strongest storms. Due to the weakness of the tropical wave, convection will primarily be driven by daytime heating, and as such should begin to develop by late morning, and diminish in coverage and intensity by the late evening hours.

Elsewhere across Central and North Texas, high pressure will remain in place, with clear skies and temperatures into the upper 90s each day. Friday will be a relatively pleasant day with dew points in the 60s and heat indices around the actual air temperature. Humidity will be on the rise again by Saturday, with peak heat indices again ranging from 100 to 105.

Darrah

LONG TERM

/NEW/ /Sunday through Wednesday/

In general, we are expected to settle into a more seasonal pattern by the end of this weekend and into next week, with ridging dominating the upper-level flow over the central CONUS, and strong high pressure at the surface. This will bring widespread heat and sun, with temperatures near or slightly above average (in the upper 90s). The one caveat to this is a signal in medium range guidance for a weak tropical wave to move into East and Central Texas by the start of next week. It is unclear at this time whether there will be sufficient lift and moisture for convection, but with surface dew points in the 70s and a weak 500 hPa vort max resolved in both the GFS and the Euro, it is within the realm of possibility to have stray (10-15% chance) showers and thunderstorms develop during the heat of the afternoon. Regardless of whether there will be storms or not, increased humidity and temperatures in the upper 90s will yield peak heat indices ranging from 100-109 each afternoon next week.

Darrah

AVIATION

/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions and southerly winds (160-200) at 5-10 knots are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period.

Darrah

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 98 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 72 94 72 93 76 / 0 0 0 5 5 Paris 75 96 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 5 5 Denton 75 99 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 75 98 74 97 76 / 0 0 0 5 0 Dallas 77 99 76 98 78 / 0 0 0 5 0 Terrell 74 97 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 5 5 Corsicana 74 98 74 96 77 / 0 0 0 10 5 Temple 71 96 71 93 75 / 0 0 0 5 0 Mineral Wells 72 99 70 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.