textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms are expected again today and Wednesday. Some storms could produce gusty winds as well as heavy rain and localized flooding, but widespread flooding is not expected. - Low rain chances are expected Thursday through the weekend.

- Hotter temperatures and high humidity are expected Thursday through the weekend with heat index readings up to 105 possible.

SHORT TERM

/NEW/ /Today through Wednesday/

Radar and satellite imagery early this morning across North and Central Texas are both clear for a change, quite a difference from the past several days. Despite the current quiet weather, another round of scattered showers and storms is anticipated across North and Central Texas today, especially our eastern half where a weak upper trough will be in place. CAMs have been fairly consistent showing showers and storms developing around the Metroplex into northeast Texas around 12Z this morning, possibly as a weak boundary currently across Central Oklahoma sinks south into North Texas. This activity looks to continue into the early afternoon while expanding in coverage, mainly along and east of I-35. Our western counties should see less activity today as the H5 ridge over the Four Corner nudges eastward. PWATs have dropped significantly across the region as shown by the 00Z FWD sounding PWAT of 1.83 inches, and this lower tropospheric moisture along with less activity over our rain-soaked southwest counties will preclude any need for a Flood Watch today. Even so, any slow- moving storms could dump locally heavy rain and cause localized flooding anywhere in North or Central Texas, especially urban areas. As we have seen the past several days, rain and clouds will keep temperatures below normal again, with highs only in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Wednesday looks to be fairly similar to today as upper pattern remains roughly the same, with scattered showers and storms anticipated areawide. Once again, highest precip chances will be over our eastern half where the upper trough will be in place, with less coverage in our western counties due to influence from the H5 ridge. Guidance also suggests a remnant boundary sinking southward from storms in Oklahoma could enhance storms across our parts of North Texas. Temperatures look to be only slight warmer on Wednesday than today with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

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LONG TERM

/NEW/ /Thursday through Monday/

00Z guidance continues the cooler and somewhat wetter trend for the late week and weekend timeframe as there will be little change in the upper level pattern, with a strong H5 ridge centered over the Four Corners, a weak upper trough over Texas, and a weaker H5 ridge over the Gulf Coast states. This pattern will keep slight rain chances in the forecast each day, mainly over our northern and eastern counties. High temperatures now look to stay in the low to mid 90s through the long term, which is roughly around or even slightly below average for this time of year. With the lower temps now in the forecast, the need for heat advisories later this week into the weekend is looking less likely, with peak heat index readings in the 95-105 range each day.

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AVIATION

/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected at airports this TAF period. However, VCTS are anticipated at D10 airports from 12Z-20Z and 16Z-22Z at ACT. Location, coverage and exact timing of VCTS today remains too uncertain to include tempo TSRA, but MVFR conditions and TSRA impacts are possible due to TSRA at all airports. South winds up to 12 knots will continue through the TAF period.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 90 75 94 77 / 10 20 5 5 0 Waco 74 89 74 90 75 / 20 30 5 5 0 Paris 72 89 72 93 75 / 30 40 5 5 0 Denton 73 91 73 95 75 / 10 20 5 5 0 McKinney 74 89 73 93 76 / 20 30 5 5 0 Dallas 76 93 75 95 77 / 10 30 5 5 0 Terrell 73 90 73 93 75 / 20 40 10 10 0 Corsicana 75 92 75 93 75 / 20 40 10 10 0 Temple 73 89 73 92 73 / 20 30 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 72 92 72 95 75 / 20 20 5 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.