textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend with highs in the 90s and peak heat indices in the 100-105 range.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are likely Friday morning through Friday afternoon, primarily along and north of the I-20 corridor. Gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms (60-90% chance) look to return to the area Sunday into Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Thunderstorms along a weak frontal boundary across south-central Oklahoma have quickly diminished over the last couple hours as they entered a very high CIN environment. Renewed development is likely near and just north of the Red River later tonight into early Friday morning as warm/moist advection increases into this boundary. Most of North Texas is expected to remain dry through sunrise. The current suite of high-resolution guidance is quite bullish on scattered thunderstorms or a thunderstorm complex propagating south-southwestward toward the I-20 corridor through the morning and early afternoon hours of Friday along a rapidly- moving outflow boundary. This solution would place scattered thunderstorms in and around the Metroplex in the 11AM-2PM timeframe. As always with these summertime convective setups, the details that impact the placement and timing of thunderstorms are small-scale and it will be tough to nail down a precise timing/coverage of storms through midday Friday, so check the radar before you head out the door Friday morning. Gusty winds up to 40 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards.

Thunderstorm coverage will lessen as we get further into the afternoon and evening hours, but we will need to monitor for additional, very isolated development along remnant outflow boundaries. This activity will pose a slightly more elevated threat for isolated severe wind gusts as temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s. Speaking of temperatures, if a barreling outflow boundary occurs in the morning/early afternoon, many north of I-20 may struggle to escape the 80s Friday afternoon. Those south of I-20 will still see temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices in the 100-107 degrees. A Heat Advisory was considered for this afternoon across parts of the Metroplex and south, but the potential for convection to keep temperatures well below criteria is too high at this moment for an issuance. However, if thunderstorm coverage remains more isolated and outflow remains more localized, we could see several locations along and north of I-20 approach Heat Advisory criteria.

Any lingering shower/storm activity will rapidly dissipate after sunset Friday evening with mostly dry conditions continuing through Saturday as weak ridging builds in behind this system. Expect widespread afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s on Saturday with heat index values peaking in the 100-107 degree range.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A big pattern change is expected toward the end of the weekend and into early next week as broad troughing shifts over the Plains allowing for a rather strong cold front by mid-June standards to slide south into North Texas. Current guidance highlights scattered to widespread showers and storms along and ahead of the cold front approaching the Red River late Sunday morning. This activity will gradually shift south as the cold front makes way toward the I-20 corridor by Sunday afternoon/evening and eventually Central Texas Sunday night. This boundary will provide a focus for continued thunderstorm development into Monday, primarily south of I-20 as mid-level shortwave impulses traverse over this boundary amidst a very moist environment. Deep-layer shear looks rather modest, so the severe threat will remain quite low. However, the threat for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will ramp up late Sunday into Monday, especially in areas that experience training or slow-moving thunderstorms.

The effective cold front will likely stall somewhere in between the Brazos Valley and the Texas Gulf Coast sometime Monday evening with isolated to scattered storms continuing into Tuesday morning across our far southeastern counties. Drier air will settle in by Tuesday afternoon, effectively ending rain chances across most of our forecast area. Increased cloud cover, rainfall, and northerly winds will allow for a couple of "cool" days to start next with current forecasted highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday and Tuesday. Southerly winds return by Wednesday as do temperatures in the 90s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

MVFR cigs are beginning to surge northward into parts of Central Texas and will reach KACT within the next couple of hours; reaching the Metroplex sites after 11Z-12Z Friday morning. Expect those cigs to persist into mid-morning Friday. South-southeast winds at 8-12 kts will continue through much of the TAF period.

Earlier convection along and ahead of a weak frontal boundary has largely dissipated across south-central Oklahoma at this hour. We will be monitoring for regeneration along this front early Friday morning with potential TS impacts after 16Z within the Metroplex as this activity shifts south-southwestward. Gusty east- northeasterly outflow winds will be possible if scattered storms or a complex of storms approaches the D10 terminals. If confidence increases in TSRA impacts, a TEMPO or prevailing group may be added to the TAFs. Convection will be more isolated across Central Texas.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 79 96 78 / 20 0 0 20 Waco 93 76 93 77 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 88 76 91 76 / 50 0 0 40 Denton 91 79 94 78 / 40 0 0 30 McKinney 91 79 94 78 / 30 0 0 30 Dallas 94 79 97 79 / 20 10 0 10 Terrell 92 77 95 77 / 30 10 0 0 Corsicana 95 77 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 93 75 94 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 92 76 96 76 / 30 0 0 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.