textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather will continue through Friday.

- A cold front will bring a chance of storms (20-40%) late Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown on Sunday. A few strong storms are possible.

- Warm and dry weather returns early next week, followed by another cold front around the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

/NEW/ /Through Friday/

The upper level pattern will undergo a shift over the next few days as the persistent ridge responsible for our recent warm/dry streak becomes shunted east by an evolving upper level storm system to the west. The system to the west is currently in the form of an upper low over the Great Basin. This low is progged to split into two separate low centers now through Friday, with one accelerating northeast to the Midwest while the other drops southwestward into Arizona. Neither of these features will have a significant effect on our local weather over the next 48 hours, aside from creating southwest flow aloft and a narrower surface pressure gradient.

The result will be continued above-normal temperatures, a shift to south winds, breezier conditions compared to the past few days, and warmer overnight temperatures. There is a weak disturbance over Mexico that will lift north across the area Thursday night around the west flank of the ridge, but an increase in clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or two is about all it will amount to. Otherwise, lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s will be the norm through Friday.

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LONG TERM

/NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/

Both upper lows will be overtaken by a larger scale shortwave trough this weekend as it drops southeast out of Alberta and deepens over the Plains. A weak surface front will already be in place associated with the Midwest upper low. The front will sharpen and advance southeast on Saturday as the upper trough deepens and propagates east. Moisture return will initially be modest, but will ramp up Saturday afternoon as the front draws near, with a swath of 1.5-2" PWats pooling out ahead of the boundary. Though the strongest synoptic scale ascent will be northeast of the region, there should still be sufficient moisture and lift to generate a band of scattered showers and storms Saturday night along the front.

The best rain chances will be over the northeast quadrant of the forecast area where the highest moisture content and strongest ascent will reside. That being said, with the stronger ascent bypassing North Texas, even those zones will be capped at 40% POPs. Lesser rain chances can be expected the farther south and west you go, with much of the area likely missing out on measurable rain. Severe weather probabilities remain low at this time, but deep layer shear and instability will be strong enough to support strong storms with gusty winds and hail. An isolated damaging wind and/or large hail event, however, cannot be completely ruled out.

All activity along with the cold front will push south and east of the region Saturday night into Sunday as the upper trough heads east (while further strengthening) into the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Cooler and drier air will make for a pleasant Sunday behind the front. A brief warm-up will occur on Monday as a ridge passes overhead, but a progressive pattern will bring another upper level system and cold front through North and Central Texas Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

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AVIATION

/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

Light east winds will veer to the southeast and increase to 10-12kt around midday Thursday. A weak upper level disturbance will move overhead Thursday night, but should only result in some mid and high clouds. VFR and quiet aviation weather will otherwise continue for another day.

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SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 88 71 91 61 / 0 0 5 0 5 Waco 63 88 70 91 63 / 0 0 5 10 0 Paris 64 86 68 90 58 / 0 0 5 0 5 Denton 63 88 68 91 56 / 0 0 5 0 5 McKinney 64 87 69 91 58 / 0 0 5 0 5 Dallas 68 89 71 93 62 / 0 0 5 0 5 Terrell 63 88 68 91 59 / 0 0 5 5 0 Corsicana 66 89 71 92 63 / 0 0 5 10 0 Temple 62 89 68 91 63 / 0 0 5 10 0 Mineral Wells 62 90 66 94 56 / 0 0 5 0 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.