textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will continue through this weekend, with highs in the 80s expected.

- Showers and thunderstorm chances return late Monday onward, with the highest chances near the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1215 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Persistent mid/upper riding will keep a dry forecast over North and Central Texas through the short-term forecast period and beyond. Moist boundary-layer southerly flow will bring the potential for low stratus and fog to parts of the region, especially Central Texas, Thursday and Friday mornings. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s through the end of the work week.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1215 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

A dry and warm forecast will remain the theme through the weekend as upper riding maintains its hold over the Southern Plains. Afternoon high temperatures may approach 90 degrees at a few locations west of I-35 by Saturday and Sunday. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may start to materialize west of Highway 281 once again over the weekend as temperatures rise to well above-normal and surface dewpoints mix into the low 50s during the afternoon hours.

The early week disturbance mentioned in previous forecast continues to trend slower, weaker, and more northward, thus lowering rain chances across East Texas to less than 20% late Monday into Tuesday. Extended guidance continues to highlight the development of a deep, broadscale trough over the western CONUS by the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe next week. The evolution of this system would increase rain chances toward the latter half of the work week across much of the region, therefore we have included widespread 40-50% rain chances in the forecast for the Wednesday- Thursday period next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Low stratus has developed over the Hill Country this morning and will shift northeast into parts of Central Texas over the next couple hours. Patchy fog (some dense) has also developed ahead of the leading edge of these MVFR cigs. We will maintain the current TEMPO group for MVFR cigs/vsbys at KACT for a few hours this morning. It is possible (20% chance) that brief IFR visibility reductions occur. These cigs should largely remain south of the D10 airspace, but intermittent FEW to SCT cigs near 2kft will be possible for a few hours after 13Z.

Patchy fog has also developed over the last hour on the eastern and southeastern fringes of the DFW Metroplex. Not expecting any impacts to the D10 terminals at the moment. Any lingering fog/low cigs will quickly dissipate after 16Z-17Z later this morning. Otherwise, expect south winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts at times this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 62 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 81 61 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 80 60 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 80 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 80 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 64 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 81 60 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 82 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 82 59 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 85 58 86 57 / 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.