textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible now through Friday. Areas generally along and south of I-20 into Central Texas will have the highest threat for flash flooding.

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, primarily in Central Texas, today and Thursday.

SHORT TERM

/NEW/ Update: Widespread showers and thunderstorms have developed as expected and continue moving north. We've already seen a few instances of training thunderstorms this morning that have resulted in a quick 1-2"+ of rain in isolated areas. Multiple additional rounds of heavy rainfall will result in an increasing threat for flash flooding today through Thursday. A Flood Watch is now in effect for Central Texas and portions of North Texas through Thursday evening. No other significant changes were made with this morning's update.

Barnes

Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday/

Our brief rain-free lull has come to an end as a complex of storms is slowly moving into our western zones. This activity is expected to remain sub-severe as it drifts northeast through the remainder of the night, though isolated instances of strong wind gusts and small hail can't be entirely ruled out. Another blossoming of showers and thunderstorms in addition to the ongoing convective complex is beginning to transpire across Central Texas. Coverage will gradually increase as this band of showers and storms moves north/northeast through the remainder of the night into Wednesday morning. Severe weather is unlikely, but isolated small hail and strong wind gusts will be possible.

Multiple additional rounds of showers and storms will develop and move east/northeast across the region today, Wednesday night, and Thursday as we remain in close proximity to an upper low. Some of these storms will have the potential to produce isolated damaging wind gusts and hail, though the overall severe weather threat will be quite low and confined primarily to Central Texas during the afternoon.

The greatest concern through Thursday is the increasing potential for flash flooding. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and the potential for cell training will likely result in several inches of rain in portions of the forecast area through Thursday. Widespread 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals are expected on average through Thursday. However, there is a fairly consistent signal that isolated areas (10% coverage) could receive as high as 5 to 7 inches of rain. The greatest potential for these high-end totals will be south of I-20. However, this will ultimately depend on where the rounds of heavy rain set up over the next couple of days, which is still a bit uncertain at this time. A Flood Watch will likely be issued later tonight after further coordination with neighboring offices.

Barnes

LONG TERM

/Issued 333 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/ /Thursday Night Onward/

An upper low over eastern Oklahoma at the start of the period will lift northeast across Missouri Thursday night into Friday, shunting the better moisture and lift into Arkansas/Louisiana and East Texas. This will shift the better rain chances east of North and Central Texas in time for the weekend. Before this happens, however, it is possible that we get one last training band of convection (as advertised by recent higher resolution guidance), which would maintain a threat of localized flash flooding through Friday. We will continue to monitor this potential, which will also depend on the mesoscale environment later this week, and adjust the Flash Flood Watch temporally and/or geographically if needed.

A mid level ridge will then attempt to bolster itself across the central part of the CONUS, starting a warming trend this weekend. With that said, the exiting low will leave a distinct weakness aloft in the ridge, allowing for isolated thunderstorm development each afternoon this weekend into the first part of next week. The better rain and storm chances will be east of I-35 where the lowest mid level heights and highest moisture content will exist, but a lack of a forcing mechanism warrants capping POPs in the chance to slight chance range. Weak flow aloft will keep any convection which develops disorganized and sub-severe.

The ridge aloft will weaken by Tuesday as a shortwave approaches from the west. The shortwave will dampen as it approaches due to interacting with the ridge, but should still keep at least a slight chance of storms going through the middle of next week.

30

AVIATION

/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today, tonight, and Thursday. While some brief breaks in the storms are possible, it is still uncertain exactly when these will occur. Therefore, VCTS has been carried in the Metroplex TAFs through the afternoon. For KACT, a brief rain-free period is possible once this round of rain and storms moves out of the area. However, additional storm development is expected this afternoon. Additional rounds of storms are possible across all of North and Central Texas overnight through Thursday. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with any stronger storms, mainly in Central Texas. However, the main concern will be heavy rainfall with any of this activity.

Ceiling trends are a bit tricky. MVFR will prevail this morning, but should improve to VFR for a few hours this afternoon (earlier for KACT). MVFR ceilings will redevelop again this evening, with IFR becoming increasingly likely after 04-06Z tonight. VFR likely won't return until Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain out of the southeast through the period near 5 to 10 knots.

Barnes

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 70 81 72 89 / 90 80 70 40 30 Waco 82 68 81 72 87 / 80 80 80 20 30 Paris 81 68 79 69 84 / 70 70 90 50 50 Denton 81 67 81 70 89 / 80 70 70 30 30 McKinney 81 69 79 70 87 / 90 80 80 40 30 Dallas 82 69 81 72 89 / 90 80 70 40 30 Terrell 81 69 80 70 87 / 90 80 80 40 40 Corsicana 83 70 81 73 88 / 80 80 80 30 40 Temple 83 69 83 72 89 / 80 70 70 20 30 Mineral Wells 80 67 83 70 90 / 90 70 50 20 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ105>107-117>123- 130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.