textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect areas mainly along and east of I-35 today before coming to an end this evening. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning are possible. - Hot and humid weather will resume from Sunday into next week with occasional thunderstorm chances and locally heavy rain mainly in North Texas.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A slow-moving upper trough axis continues to support new development of showers and isolated thunderstorms near and east of I-35 early this morning. This trend is likely to continue for the next ~12 hours, with the deepest convection occurring east of I-35 and south of I-20. Any persistent heavy rainfall would be capable of resulting in additional localized flash flooding. Outflows could result in a northwestward expansion of isolated convective activity through the daytime, and low PoPs will be indicated as far northwest as the Metroplex during the afternoon period. Most precip will be winding down by early evening as the trough axis continues to translate eastward, while weak upper ridging and subsidence gradually takes its place. The presence of some cloud cover and precipitation will aid in holding temperatures and heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria today, although it still will be seasonably hot and muggy with highs around 90 and heat index values in the upper 90s to around 103.

Another forecast concern this morning is the potential for fog development, and this would be most likely near and west of I-35 where the cirrus canopy has cleared, while light northeast winds and favorable radiational cooling allow low temperatures to fall to the dewpoint. We'll carry a mention of patchy fog west of the I-35 corridor through the early morning with quite a bit of uncertainty in the placement and extent.

By Sunday, most of the precipitation potential will have exited the forecast area with only slim and unmentionable 10% PoPs remaining across our southeastern zones during the daytime. Portions of the CWA are likely to make a return to 105+ heat index values, and a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for at least part of the area. However, there is still some uncertainty in the west/southwest extent of these heat indices, and some guidance is also indicating a potential for low clouds to linger through much of the daytime which offers some bust potential for heat headlines. For this reason, we'll hold off on a product issuance at this time with too much uncertainty in the spatial extent. There will also be a fairly stout southerly breeze through most of the daytime, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph. This will add some modest relief to what will otherwise be another hot and humid summer afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

As southerly flow recovers and another frontal zone makes its way into the Southern Plains on Sunday night, our focus will be on upstream MCS activity developing along this stationary boundary in Oklahoma which may attempt to dive southward into parts of North Texas. In fact, this particular setup will exist essentially on a daily basis through the entirety of next week, and PoPs will be indicated mainly near/north of I-20 just about every day to account for this potential. Since these systems will be driven on the mesoscale, its not feasible to pin down which day may have a higher chance than another for an MCS intrusion at this time range. Even if these complexes themselves dissipate prior to crossing the Red River, residual nearby outflow boundaries may serve as foci for new development in parts of North Texas during peak heating hours. Areas that are unaffected by convection are likely to see a return to Heat Advisory criteria through much of the upcoming week, as dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and temperatures in the 90s combine for 105+ heat index values.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently redeveloping in the DFW Metroplex, with a separate batch in Central Texas as well. Coverage this afternoon is expected to be low enough that low confidence exists regarding category impacts on station. Will maintain the VCTS mention through 23Z for the Metroplex terminals and through 00Z for KACT. Current MVFR ceilings at KDFW and KFTW should be brief, with an upward trend in the cloud heights early afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return to all sites between 10-12Z, with a low (20-30 percent) chance of IFR at KACT. Ceilings should trend upward by 15-16Z, with VFR conditions for KDFW after 21/18Z.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 76 95 79 / 20 10 0 0 Waco 89 76 93 78 / 60 10 0 0 Paris 87 74 90 77 / 30 20 0 40 Denton 89 75 94 79 / 20 10 0 10 McKinney 89 75 93 78 / 20 10 0 20 Dallas 89 76 94 79 / 30 10 0 0 Terrell 89 74 92 77 / 40 10 0 0 Corsicana 88 75 92 78 / 60 20 0 0 Temple 88 75 92 78 / 50 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 88 74 95 78 / 20 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.