textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will return today. Some severe storms will be possible, mainly across portions of Central and East Texas.

- Warmer weather is expected Friday through Monday, followed by a cool-down for New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.

SHORT TERM

/Issued 105 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024/ /Through Friday/

Tuesday's weak cold front has stalled just east and southeast of the region, extending from near Texarkana to the Texas Coastal Bend at midnight. The front will begin to lift north along its western flank overnight as the next storm system approaches from the west. Lingering moisture at the low levels and a gradual strengthening of isentropic upglide will allow for additional fog formation during the overnight hours into Thursday morning. Temperatures and dewpoints are essentially both in the 50s across the board, so the expectation is that localized fog along the Red River and Central Texas will become more widespread over the next several hours. Dense fog has already developed in the Sherman and Paris areas and seems to be slowly expanding, so a small Dense Fog Advisory has been issued along the Red River. The advisory may need to be expanded at some point if quarter-mile or less visibilities become more common.

The aforementioned storm system is comprised of a shortwave currently entering the Texas Panhandle and a developing surface low and Pacific front over west-central Texas, all of which will move east into the Big Country Thursday morning. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms will develop immediately ahead of the surface front, initially west of I-35, by the mid morning hours. Convection will increase in coverage and intensity while crossing the I-35 corridor late morning into early Thursday afternoon. At this point, most of the forecast area will still be in a relatively cool sector north of the now warm front, keeping convection elevated and likely sub-severe. That said, strong deep layer shear and modest levels of elevated instability may allow for a few hail-producing storms.

The warm front will surge north Thursday afternoon as the Pacific front pushes east, immersing East Texas and eastern portions of Central Texas in a warmer and more unstable environment. This is when and where the better potential for severe weather will exist, including both damaging winds and large hail as equal threats. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, along with the threat for localized flooding where any training convection may occur. This system will be more progressive compared to the last one, and all activity should exit to the east early Thursday evening. One exception will be in and around the Paris area where wrap-around moisture may allow for lingering rain showers through midnight.

Despite the exiting trough and associated precipitation, the front will once again stall just to our southeast as yet another shortwave approaches from the west Thursday night. Winds will become light during the overnight hours, which when combined with recent rainfall may lead to more fog formation by daybreak Friday. Will add some patchy fog for Thursday night into Friday morning. Fog will dissipate by midday, giving way to a mostly sunny and warm Friday afternoon with highs in the 60s and 70s.

30

CLIMATE

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Monday. In Dallas/ Fort Worth, the mercury may approach 80F, but that will be well short of the record high for December 30, which is 90F in 1951.

However, in Central Texas, record highs may be challenged:

Record Highs for December 30 Waco 82F in 2021 Killeen 85F in 1951

25

AVIATION

/Issued 105 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024/ /06Z TAFs/

IFR conditions will likely deteriorate to LIFR by daybreak Thursday as ceilings slowly drop. Visibility reductions may also occur, especially at KACT as fog creeps in from the south. Showers and thunderstorms should develop just west of all TAF sites 13-15Z and may occasionally impact any or all sites in the 15Z to 19Z time frame as the next front pushes through the area. Convection will exit to the east around 20Z Thursday. Conditions should improve to MVFR late Thursday afternoon, but cigs will likely hang around Thursday night as the front stalls just to the southeast and another fast moving shortwave trough approaches.

30

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 49 68 50 71 / 90 10 0 0 0 Waco 67 47 70 47 73 / 90 0 0 0 5 Paris 60 50 63 45 66 / 100 40 0 5 5 Denton 59 45 68 45 70 / 90 20 0 0 0 McKinney 60 48 66 47 69 / 90 20 0 0 0 Dallas 62 48 68 48 70 / 90 10 0 0 0 Terrell 62 49 68 49 70 / 90 10 0 5 5 Corsicana 65 51 70 52 74 / 90 5 0 5 5 Temple 71 46 75 49 77 / 80 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 62 45 71 45 72 / 90 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ092>095- 104>107.