textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return late Friday through early Sunday. A few strong storms with hail are also possible on Saturday, mainly in Central Texas.

- A strong cold front will move through the area late Saturday into early Sunday bringing the coldest weather of the season so far from Sunday through Tuesday. Wind chills on Sunday morning will drop into the mid teens to mid 20s.

- Some light rain will return Monday into Monday night. The potential for any light sleet or freezing rain continues to decrease. No impacts are expected, even if a brief window of wintry precipitation does occur.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 100 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Cloud cover will steadily increase this morning as a broad warm/moist advection regime takes hold of the Southern Plains. Southerly flow will continue to deepen and strengthen within the 850-700 mb layer, with forecast soundings indicating a thickening deck of mid-level clouds expanding from west to east through daybreak. Despite the increasingly clouds skies, temperatures will be similar or within a few degrees of Thursday morning's readings, with most locations dipping into the upper 30s to lower 40s by sunrise.

Moisture and ascent will continue to increase through the day Friday as a pair of disturbances approach the region. The first, a subtle shortwave emerging out of northern Mexico, will help initiate ascent across western North and Central Texas by late morning or early afternoon. While radar echoes may begin to appear across our western zones during the day, much of this initial activity will struggle to reach the ground due to a persistent dry sub-cloud layer. Forecast soundings depict modestly steep low- level lapse rates with pronounced dry air below 850 mb, so while radar returns are probable early in the afternoon, most of the precipitation will likely manifest as high-based showers or virga. As a result, PoPs have been capped at 15-25% through the afternoon hours, mainly west of I-35.

Rain chances will ramp up this evening into the overnight hours as stronger forcing overspreads the region from the west. This is tied to a more robust shortwave diving southeastward out of the Central Rockies, which will enhance ascent across a broad area and support deeper saturation. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop late Friday night, with the greatest concentration along and west of I-35 through much of the overnight period. Despite modest instability (MUCAPE of ~500 J/kg), steepening lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft may allow a few storms to become capable of producing small hail. The overall threat for severe weather remains low, however, with any stronger updrafts likely to be isolated. Otherwise, temperatures will be more mild Friday night as a thick blanket of clouds and increasing southerly winds keep lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 100 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The latest guidance continues to suggest a relative lull in convection for many areas from daybreak Saturday through mid afternoon as the initial shortwave departs and weak subsidence develops in its wake. Any residual showers or isolated storms will likely be scattered and weakening through the morning hours, especially north of the I-20 corridor. However, warm air advection will continue through the day with gradually improving thermodynamics as low to mid 60s surface dewpoints return beneath 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates. This should support increasing instability by Saturday afternoon, especially across Central and East Texas.

As a strong cold front pushes into the region from the north, renewed development of showers and thunderstorms is expected ahead of and along the boundary. With deep layer shear values in the 40-50 kt range, the setup could support a few stronger storms with the potential for hail and gusty winds. The better overlap of shear and instability remains across our southeastern counties, where an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The front will continue surging southward Saturday evening, quickly ending precipitation chances across the region by late Saturday night.

A stout cold advection regime will follow the front, with strong north winds ushering in the coldest air mass of the season thus far. For temperatures, Saturday will likely be one of those non- diurnal days where the daily high temperature occurs prior to normal peak heating hours, then drop steadily behind the front. Post-frontal wind speeds were nudged closer to the NBM 75th percentile to account for the tight pressure gradient and 925-850 mb flow in the 30-40 kt range. Sub-freezing lows are forecast for many areas from Sunday through Tuesday, with Monday night into Tuesday morning appearing to be the coldest stretch. Wind chills Sunday morning will range from the mid teens to mid 20s, even though surface wind speeds will only be around 10-15 mph.

Rain chances return Monday as a positively-tilted upper trough ejects across the central CONUS. While forecast soundings show a deep cold surface layer in place, they also indicate the bulk of the precipitation will occur when temperatures are above freezing. However, there is a narrow window during which a wintry mix could still develop (primarily sleet or freezing rain) in the immediate vicinity of the Red River Monday morning. The potential for meaningful impacts from any precipitation remains low. Model trends continue to favor a progressive system, with precipitation likely ending before subfreezing temperatures return Monday night. Highs will gradually climb out of the 40s beginning Tuesday, with more widespread 50s and 60s by mid to late next week as southerly flow returns. Some ensemble guidance is continuing to hint at another cold front arriving towards the end of the forecast period, but predictability remains low beyond Day 6.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR flight conditions expected to prevail through much of the daytime hours with light southeast winds increasing to around 10-12 kts as the surface pressure gradient tightens in advance of an approaching upper disturbance. Ceilings will steadily lower this afternoon as mid-level moisture increases, with OVC050 expected by early afternoon. Isolated high-based showers or virga may develop across the D10 airspace after 18Z, but a dry sub-cloud layer should preclude measurable precipitation through the day. Brief turbulence may accompany these virga elements.

Shower and isolated thunderstorm activity will become more probable late this evening into the overnight hours as ascent increases from the west. MVFR cigs around 2500 ft are expected to develop at the Metroplex terminals after 05Z, with VCTS included to account for the low but non-zero thunderstorm potential. Future amendments may be needed to introduce a TEMPO group for heavier showers or TSRA.

A more pronounced wind shift and the associated higher TSRA coverage accompanying the cold front is expected just beyond the current extended TAF period. This frontal passage and the associated impacts will be addressed in subsequent TAF issuances as timing becomes more certain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 50 69 33 / 10 80 70 10 Waco 60 54 73 35 / 10 70 60 30 Paris 58 44 58 29 / 0 80 90 30 Denton 57 47 68 28 / 10 80 60 10 McKinney 59 48 66 30 / 10 80 80 20 Dallas 59 49 70 33 / 10 80 70 20 Terrell 61 49 67 33 / 10 80 80 30 Corsicana 63 54 71 37 / 10 70 80 40 Temple 63 54 74 37 / 10 60 50 30 Mineral Wells 61 49 73 30 / 20 70 40 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.