textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along and north of a warm front through Thursday morning across North Texas. Large to very large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. The tornado threat is low. - There will be multiple, potentially numerous, rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through Saturday.

- Flooding will be of increasing concern heading into this upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

/NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/

A deep upper-level trough will remain anchored over the Desert Southwest through the short-term forecast period with several embedded waves in the southwesterly flow aloft keeping unsettled weather over North and Central Texas through the weekend. A synoptic front will meander north and south over the region providing a focus for thunderstorm development through the end of the week. The front is currently settled from roughly Canton, TX to Lampasas, TX and will gradually lift northward through the overnight in response to an increasing southerly low-level jet. Elevated supercell thunderstorms have started to develop across portions of the Edwards Plateau and the Big Country near the center of an 850mb low, but convective initiation will be possible along and north of the entire warm front through the morning hours. Most of this activity will remain elevated on the "cool" side of the surface boundary and rapidly transit east-northeast through the Thursday morning and exit the region early Thursday afternoon. Very impressive deep-layer wind shear, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates, and ~2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will promote a very large hail threat in any storms that develop (potentially 2+" in diameter). Localized wind gusts of 55-65 mph will also be possible. The tornado threat will remain low with this round of storms and will only materialize with any storms that are able to ride along the warm front or position themselves on the "warm" side of the boundary. Many locations across Central Texas and the Brazos Valley will avoid this round of storms.

Timing the Overnight into Thursday Morning Storms: West of I-35: 3AM-9AM Along I-35/DFW Metroplex: 4AM-10AM East of I-35: 6AM-12PM

Thunderstorms will shift off to the northeast by midday Thursday with scattered shower activity lingering across northeast Texas into Thursday afternoon. Cloudy skies will prevail through the day with locations across North Texas struggling to get out of the 60s on the cool side of the front (might be a few locations along the Red River that remain in the upper 50s). A relative lull in activity is likely through Thursday evening with thunderstorm chances picking back up across parts of western Central and North Texas late Thursday night into Friday morning as the low-level jet ramps back up. Most of this activity looks to remain west and northwest of the Metroplex through the morning hours.

A more concerning episode of severe weather looks to be setting up along and east of I-35 Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A 45-55 kt low-level jet is forecast to overlap a destabilizing warm sector marked by 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE. Low LCLs, impressive 3CAPE, and strong low-level wind shear will promote a threat for a few tornadoes. The lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere will be quite moist and may support a messier convective mode that may ultimately tamper the tornado threat, but continue to remain weather aware and check back for forecast updates! Where this threat maximizes will depend on the ultimate position of the front, but right now the area of greatest concern looks to reside along and east of the Hwy 34 corridor Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Storms behind the boundary will still carry a large hail and damaging wind threat. Heavy rainfall starting late Friday will also begin our period of prolonged flooding concerns across portions of northeast Texas into the weekend.

Langfeld

LONG TERM

/Issued 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/ /Thursday Night Onward/

By Thursday night, the earlier wave of activity will be exiting to the east/northeast. This will not be the end of our week of unsettled weather. The ever-oscillating frontal boundary will continue to provide a focus for additional rounds of precipitation Thursday night through Saturday as the upper level longwave trough to our west finally begins to spread eastward. Numerous showers and storms are expected across the region, with the highest coverage mainly across North Texas both Friday and Saturday. 0-6km flow remains more parallel to the boundary, meaning that storms will grow upscale and become more linear. Ample instability, steep lapse rates between 7-8 degC/km, and deep layer shear > 40 kts will promote the continued potential of severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds both days. Additionally, backed low-level winds, efficient streamwise vorticity ingestion, and 0-1 km shear > 30 kts will promote an increased tornado threat, particularly for areas near and east of I-35 on Friday.

Southwest to northeast steering flow and the multiple rounds of precipitation will allow for training storms, and increase the flood threat. This is particularly true for areas northeast of the DFW Metroplex, where 4-5" of total rainfall accumulation is expected between tonight and Saturday night, with isolated (10% chance) totals of 8+" where training storms line up. As such, a Flood Watch has been issued for our northeastern counties beginning at 1 AM Friday through Sunday morning for this increased threat. Remember to never drive through flooded roads, and to always find an alternate route. Elsewhere across North Texas, you can expect around 1.5" to 3.5" of 72 hour rainfall totals tonight through Saturday morning, with lower totals down into Central Texas.

The front will push fully through the region on Saturday, shunting the rain chances to our east, and bringing gusty conditions to the region. Expect much cooler conditions behind the front with afternoon highs mainly in the 50s on Sunday.

Prater

AVIATION

/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

Cigs will continue to tank to IFR status tonight into Thursday morning as a warm front currently laid out from KJDD to roughly KGRK continues gradually lifting northward. IFR will prevail through much of the morning and may persist through the entire TAF period over D10 (30-40% chance). Have leaned a bit more optimistic, bringing low MVFR back to D10 after 18Z. Nonetheless, widespread IFR is likely again Thursday night. SCT MVFR cigs are more likely at KACT this afternoon.

Scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are expected to move across North Texas later tonight into Thursday morning. VCTS will run over D10 from 09Z-14Z with TSRA impacts to the terminals likely in between 10Z-13Z. Reduced visibilities due to rainfall will be possible. A few storms may also carry large hail and damaging wind gusts. All thunderstorm activity should push east of the Metroplex by 14Z-15Z Thursday morning with rain showers lingering into midday.

ENE winds will gradually shift more northerly through the morning as the frontal boundary shifts back to the south during the day Thursday. A few gusts to 15-20 kts are not out of the question during the morning hours.

Langfeld

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is likely over the next couple of days over parts of North and Central Texas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 70 56 64 41 / 60 90 100 80 30 Waco 65 78 60 67 42 / 40 80 90 70 10 Paris 61 76 59 66 42 / 70 90 100 100 30 Denton 54 66 52 62 37 / 70 90 100 80 30 McKinney 59 71 56 63 40 / 60 90 100 90 30 Dallas 61 72 58 65 43 / 60 90 100 80 30 Terrell 64 77 59 67 42 / 50 90 100 90 20 Corsicana 68 81 62 70 45 / 40 80 90 90 10 Temple 67 81 60 71 42 / 40 70 90 60 5 Mineral Wells 54 66 52 62 37 / 70 90 100 60 30

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for TXZ094- 095-105>107-123.