textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast tonight through tomorrow night. A few sprinkles are possible in North Texas tomorrow, but the chance of measurable precip is less than 20%.

- Warm temperatures and dry conditions are expected late in the work week through this weekend with highs in the 70s.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1251 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

The advertised cold front currently bisects our forecast area as it gradually shifts south of the I-20 corridor this afternoon. This boundary separates a relatively moist airmass to the south noted by dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and a drier airmass to the north, with dewpoints in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Extensive cloud cover currently exists along and south of the front with isolated showers remaining possible through this afternoon south of I-20 and east of I-35. MUCAPE > 300 J/kg will support a few rumbles of thunder before this activity exits to the southeast along with the cold front later this evening.

North winds at 10-15 mph behind the cold front will usher in a slightly cooler airmass with overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 30s by Wednesday morning and widespread highs in the 50s tomorrow afternoon. A few, isolated high-based showers may develop northwest of the Metroplex during the day Wednesday as a compact shortwave trough shifts over the Southern Plains.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1251 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Broad mid/upper ridging will extend from Northern Mexico toward the Intermountain West through the remainder of the week. Additionally, the return of west-southwest winds Thursday will promote a gradual warming trend into the weekend. Expect highs in the 60s Thursday reaching the low to mid 70s region-wide Friday afternoon. A weak cold front looks to move through the area Friday, but will do little outside of a brief northwesterly wind shift. The state of Texas will remain beneath ridging through much of the weekend allowing for a very mild and pleasant early February weekend with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s (15 to 20 degrees above average for this time of year). Our next chance for rain will likely hold off until the Monday- Tuesday timeframe next week when extended guidance highlights increasing moisture over North and Central Texas ahead of a Desert Southwest upper low.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Winds will gradually weaken over the next few hours, with north flow AOB 10 kts prevailing through the night. Winds will be a little stronger tomorrow, but not strong enough to warrant an additional TAF line.

Cloud cover should steadily move in from the north tonight and tomorrow, initially starting as a mid-level ceiling, with SCTvBKN clouds based around 4500-6000 ft moving from N-S basically all day tomorrow. Instead of prevailing a ceiling, we opted to keep the lower clouds as a SCT deck in the TAFs, knowing there may be periods where a ceiling exists. Ceilings are most likely between 14-20Z when there is a 10% chance of rain at the D10 terminals and between 16-22Z when there is a 5% chance of rain at ACT. Because rain chances are so low (and even if it does rain, it shouldn't be enough rain to cause an operational impact or even wet the ground), we did not include any precip in the TAFs ATTM.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 39 56 35 65 / 0 10 0 0 Waco 39 59 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 35 53 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 33 55 30 65 / 0 10 0 0 McKinney 36 54 32 63 / 0 10 0 0 Dallas 39 57 35 66 / 0 10 0 0 Terrell 37 56 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 40 59 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 38 60 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 35 59 31 68 / 0 10 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.