textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Some light rain will return tonight into Monday. The potential for freezing precipitation Monday morning near the Red River remains low with no impacts expected.

- Sub-freezing temperatures with wind chills in the 20s are expected on Tuesday morning.

- Brief warming is expected mid-week before another cold front brings cooler air and scattered rain chances to the region late this upcoming week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday) Issued at 1248 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Occasionally breezy northerly winds and increasing cloud cover will keep this afternoon well below normal in the wake of yesterday's strong cold front. Afternoon highs will only be able to peak in the low to upper 40s region-wide, about 15-20 degrees below climatological normal for the last day of November.

An incoming shortwave disturbance, currently located overtop Wyoming/Utah/Colorado will continue to swing east-southeast through the Plains over the rest of today into tomorrow. As this shortwave approaches later this tonight, low-level winds will return out of the south and advect warmer, moisture-rich air overtop the cooler post-frontal airmass. Due to this influx of better moisture, expect continued cloud cover to help keep overnight low temperatures at or above freezing, ranging from the low-mid 30s to around 40. The aforementioned isentropic upglide over the colder surface air will promote light showers beginning overnight tonight, spreading from SW to NE as we head into Monday morning.

While the primary precipitation type across our county warning area will be liquid precipitation, we cannot rule out a very brief 1-2 hour window of occasional light sleet or freezing rain near the Red River and our northeastern counties near/just after daybreak Monday morning. Forecast soundings continue to highlight a decent elevated warm nose, a very shallow (or nonexistent) refreezing layer just off the surface, and warming temperatures towards the surface. This very borderline temperature profile, coupled with a very short period of at or near freezing temperatures, shows that this is not a great set up for any meaningful winter precipitation. Little to no impacts are expected Monday morning as temperatures will quickly warm above freezing.

Expect scattered showers to continue mainly across East Texas Monday afternoon. High temperatures will peak in the mid 30s to around 50, continuing to be 15-20 degrees below normal as we break through the first day of December.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1248 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

As the shortwave exits to our northeast Monday night and our showers come to an end, a re-enforcing shot of cold air will plunge temperatures below freezing almost region-wide. Expect low-mid 20s near the Red River, and mid 20s to low 30s elsewhere on Tuesday morning. Wind chills on Tuesday morning will be in the 20s, so make sure to bundle up on your way out the door!

We'll experience a quick warm up back into the 50s and to near 70s midweek as southerly winds return. Our next shortwave will be swinging through the Four Corners by late Wednesday-early Thursday, bringing another surge in moisture overtop the region as we head into the latter half of the week. Expect increasing rain chances as the upper shortwave approaches North and Central Texas late Wednesday onward. Long term deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the system's cold front moving through late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing another period of cooler temperatures to end the week. There is still uncertainty on the breadth of the temperature drop, with around ~53% of ensemble members showing a deeper trough and colder post-frontal surface temperatures. All in all, more details will become available as we get closer in time, so keep updated with the forecast!

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Mid-level VFR cigs will progressively lower during the next several hours, eventually prevailing at 5-6 kft for much of the overnight period. Increasing ascent will result in the development of rain showers around and after 05z, and this activity should initially affect Metroplex area airports and locations to the north and east. With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s at the time of precipitation, this may necessitate some deicing operations. As the overnight rain activity moves east after daybreak, renewed shower development is expected across Central Texas which will begin to affect the Waco TAF site after 12z. In addition, MVFR cigs at 2-3 kft will begin to fill in before the passage of another weak cold front set to arrive Monday afternoon. This boundary will do little other than to reinforce a northwesterly wind around 10 kts, following an eastward veering that will have occurred prior to its arrival. As drier air filters in on Monday evening, low cigs will quickly scatter between 00-02z with VFR prevailing thereafter.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 36 42 30 49 / 20 20 10 0 Waco 39 47 31 51 / 20 20 10 0 Paris 33 37 24 46 / 20 40 20 0 Denton 32 42 24 50 / 20 20 10 0 McKinney 33 41 26 48 / 20 30 10 0 Dallas 37 43 30 50 / 20 30 10 0 Terrell 35 42 27 49 / 20 40 10 0 Corsicana 40 46 32 51 / 20 40 10 0 Temple 38 48 31 54 / 20 30 10 0 Mineral Wells 33 47 26 56 / 10 20 10 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.