textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- An elevated fire weather threat will continue today across much of North Texas with low humidity and southerly winds of 10-15 mph.

- Rain chances return from Sunday into Monday with the arrival of a weak cold front. A few strong thunderstorms with hail and wind threats are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. - Slightly cooler temperatures with low rain chances will prevail through the middle portion of the workweek.

SHORT TERM

(Through Saturday Night) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A stout upper-level high pressure center remains anchored overhead which will lead to another afternoon of near-record temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100. Aggressive mixing of dewpoints into the upper 50s and lower 60s will keep heat index values near or even a touch below ambient temperatures again today, with no heat headlines necessary. The main story through the short term will be an elevated wildfire threat, as low humidity combines with slightly stronger southerly wind speeds of 10-15 mph. With dry fuels from worsening drought conditions, extra care should be taken to avoid sources of wildfire ignition. A Grass Fire Danger Statement has been issued to highlight this concern. Today could also be the last opportunity for DFW and Waco to add to the 100 degree tally this year, as increasing cloud cover, convective chances, and the arrival of a weak front are likely to hold temperatures to the low/mid 90s for much of the extended forecast period.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

By Sunday morning, a shortwave trough traversing the Central Plains will lead to a breakdown and southeastward shift of the upper ridge axis. This will open the door for convective chances to end the weekend and begin the workweek. Some high-based showers could enter parts of Northwest Texas as early as Sunday morning as mid-level ascent from this shortwave arrives. However, greater chances for deep convection will be delayed until later Sunday afternoon and evening until a weak frontal boundary sags towards the Red River and results in scattered surface-based convection within a very unstable and modestly sheared prefrontal warm sector. Storms will likely initiate upstream of the forecast area during peak heating roughly from the Big Country northeastward into Texoma, and will have a tendency to propagate southward along outflows. Some loosely organized convective clusters or small linear segments will be a possibility with attendant marginally severe hail/wind hazards on an isolated basis in North Texas. Overall, convective coverage is forecast to be roughly 30-50% at this time. While intensity of convection will tend to wane through the evening with loss of heating, shortwave ascent along with lift from the nearby front could sustain isolated convective activity overnight into early Monday morning.

Additional convective redevelopment is likely to occur on Monday with aid from diurnal heating along the residual weak frontal zone as well as any lingering outflow boundaries present from Sunday evening's convection. It seems most likely that this would be near or south of I-20, although the locations of these boundaries will not be known with any certainty until Monday morning. Strong downburst winds would be possible with daytime thunderstorms as temperatures climb to the low/mid 90s near and south of the boundaries.

A secondary Plains/Midwest trough will send a reinforcing front southward into North Texas by Tuesday. This front will also be devoid of significantly cooler air, but will advect lower dewpoints into the area through the midweek period. Temperatures should be closer to seasonal normals through the middle and end of the workweek, but may still be slightly above average as we officially enter astronomical fall.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with SSE winds around 10 kts. A few gusts up to 20 kts are possible this afternoon. Diurnal cumulus around 7 kft can be expected, along with a gradual increase in cirrus later today.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 97 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 98 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 97 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 98 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 97 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 95 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 95 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 97 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.