textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers and storms are expected this evening through Monday evening. Localized heavy rain and flash flooding are the primary threats, although some storms west of I-35 could produce isolated large hail this evening into tonight.

- An increased potential for severe weather may materialize south of I-20 and along/east of I-35 Monday afternoon into early Monday evening. All severe weather hazards, including a couple tornadoes, will be possible. - A return to cool and dry conditions is expected by the middle of the week through Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 50s and 60s. Rain chances return next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday afternoon) Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An upper-level low currently situated near the Four Corners region will shift northeast toward the Central Plains later tonight. Multiple embedded shortwaves on the southern periphery of this low will traverse over the Southern Plains later this evening through Monday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to North and Central Texas. Strong low/mid-level moisture return is already occurring ahead of this system across parts of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage this afternoon shifting east toward our Big Country counties along/west of Highway 281 by the 3-4PM timeframe. Sufficient shear, mid-level lapse rates near 7 degreeC/km, and elevated instability on the order of ~750-1250 J/kg will support an isolated large hail threat across our western counties into the evening hours.

As synoptic-scale ascent expands over our region, expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to increase across all of North Texas after midnight tonight and into Monday morning. Unseasonably high PWATs and the potential for training thunderstorms will lead to an isolated flash flooding threat through Monday morning along and north of the I-20 corridor. Expect a widespread 1-3" of rain across North Texas with a 10% chance for totals greater than 4" through midday Monday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for this area tonight through 3PM Monday afternoon. Note that all of the overnight/morning activity will remain elevated, thus the severe threat will remain very low. However, a few more robust cores capable of producing small hail will remain possible.

A surface low will develop along the Oklahoma/Kansas border by late Monday morning dragging an attendant dryline/Pacific front east across our forecast area during the day. This boundary will provide focus for a disorganized line of thunderstorms that will shift toward East Texas during the afternoon hours. Ahead of these storms, a surface warm front will quickly surge northward into parts of Central and East Texas. Rich, boundary-layer moisture and a plume of 1250-1750 J/kg SBCAPE will move over much of East- Central and East Texas by the early afternoon hours behind this boundary. Strong deep-layer and low-level wind shear will overlap the uncapped warm sector for several hours tomorrow afternoon promoting a severe weather threat for locations generally south of I-20 and along/east of I-35 from 1-6PM Monday. Storm mode at this time remains a bit uncertain, but confidence is increasing in a few supercell thunderstorms developing along the tail-end of the line of storms and ahead of the line within the open warm sector. All storm hazards will be possible in this scenario, including the potential for a couple tornadoes. If storm mode remains messier and/or cloud cover inhibits the destabilization of the atmosphere tomorrow afternoon, then the overall severe weather threat will remain lower.

LONG TERM

(Monday evening through next Saturday) Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

All thunderstorm activity should exit into East Texas by 6-7PM Monday evening as a much drier airmass ushers in over the region. This system's actual cold front will arrive early Tuesday keeping temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday afternoon. A stronger push of cold air (dry frontal passage) will enter North and Central Texas Tuesday evening-Tuesday night. This will allow for cooler temperatures by the middle of the week, including the Thanksgiving Holiday. Expect overnight lows in the 30s-40s and afternoon highs in the 50s-low 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances may trend higher again next weekend as moisture increases ahead of the next forecasted upper-level system.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all North and Central Texas terminals through this evening. SCT to BKN cigs near 4-5kft will increase in coverage later this afternoon as greater quality moisture shifts from west to east over the region. Chances for showers and storms and MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will gradually increase after 05Z-06Z tonight within D10. Expect MVFR in D10 by ~07Z and IFR by ~11Z-12Z. TSRA impacts at the Metroplex terminals are most likely within the 12Z-16Z timeframe Monday morning. Pockets of heavy rainfall, gusty winds to 25 kts, and small hail will be the primary hazards.

By midday Monday, thunderstorm chances will shift into parts of Central and East Texas with TSRA impacts at KACT likely toward the end of this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 58 72 51 / 10 100 90 0 Waco 68 61 73 50 / 10 50 90 10 Paris 65 54 65 50 / 0 90 90 20 Denton 66 54 71 46 / 10 100 90 0 McKinney 66 55 70 49 / 0 90 100 10 Dallas 68 58 72 52 / 10 90 90 10 Terrell 69 57 71 51 / 0 80 90 10 Corsicana 70 62 76 54 / 0 40 80 20 Temple 69 61 76 50 / 10 40 90 10 Mineral Wells 70 55 76 46 / 40 100 90 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Monday afternoon for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>120-123-129.