textproduct: Fort Worth/Dallas

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and dry conditions are expected today and tomorrow.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return late Friday through early Sunday. A few strong storms with hail are also possible on Saturday, mainly in Central Texas.

- A strong cold front will move through the area late Saturday into early Sunday bringing the coldest weather of the season so far from Sunday through Tuesday. Wind chills on Sunday morning will drop into the mid teens to mid 20s.

- Some light rain will return Monday into Monday night. The potential for any light sleet or freezing rain continues to decrease. No impacts are expected, even if a brief window of wintry precipitation does occur.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1142 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A chilly but pleasant Thanksgiving Day is unfolding across the region. Morning clouds are clearing out, allowing sunny skies to return to the region. Temperatures will warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s this afternoon with light winds. Southerly winds will return late tonight into Friday morning, resuming a warm/moist advection regime across the region. As a result, cloud cover will overspread the area again overnight and will continue to increase/thicken throughout the day Friday. Given the expected dense cloud cover tomorrow, high temperatures were lowered slightly, with temperatures only warming in the 50s to low 60s tomorrow afternoon. A shortwave trough will approach from the west during the afternoon, with a few showers developing across our western zones as it nears the area.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1142 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A secondary shortwave will move into the area Friday night into Saturday which will bring an increase in shower activity overnight. Instability will also increase overnight, resulting in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the region. Any stronger storms that are able to develop would be capable of producing small hail, but the potential for severe weather will be very low. Latest guidance suggests there may be a decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday morning, followed by another increase in showers and storms during the afternoon for areas along and east of I-35 as a strong cold front moves into the region. By the afternoon, MUCAPE may be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg across portions of Central and East Texas. Combined with sufficient deep layer shear and marginally steep lapse rates, there will continue to be a threat for scattered strong storms during the afternoon. An isolated severe storm can't be completely ruled out across Central Texas. However, the severe weather potential will be higher to our south and east. Hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat with any strong or severe storms. All showers and storms will exit to our south Saturday night as drier air is ushered in behind the cold front.

Aside from the rain chances, the weekend cold front will usher in the coldest air of the season so far. High temperatures will only be in the 40s behind the front Sunday through Tuesday, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s Saturday night and Sunday night. Very cold wind chills in the mid teens to mid 20s are expected Sunday morning due to breezy/gusty north winds, so ensure you bundle up before heading out the door. The coldest temperatures are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning, with nearly all locations expected to see freezing temperatures as lows bottom out in the 20s to low 30s. Rain chances are still expected to return to portions of the region on Monday as an upper trough sweeps through the Southern Plains. The potential for any wintry precipitation continues to decrease, as most of the precipitation will occur during the day Monday when temperatures are above freezing. Latest guidance continues to trend a bit more progressive with this system, with rain chances likely ending prior to the sub-freezing temperatures Monday night. Fortunately, even if the two do overlap and we see a brief window of wintry precipitation, precipitation would be very light and temperatures will not be cold enough for any impacts.

Heading into the middle of next week, temperatures are expected to rebound into the 50s and 60s. Rain chances may return during the second half of the week, along with the potential for another cold front.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR will continue through the period. Have prevailed an east wind in the TAFs today and tonight, though winds will likely vary from east to northeast at times due to the light (5 kts or less) wind speeds. Southeast winds are expected to return early Friday morning and will increase to 9-12 knots mid to late morning. A few gusts to 20 knots will be possible throughout the day tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Dallas-Ft. Worth 42 59 50 68 / 0 10 90 70 Waco 41 60 53 73 / 0 10 70 70 Paris 34 57 44 60 / 0 0 90 100 Denton 36 58 47 68 / 0 10 80 70 McKinney 38 58 48 66 / 0 0 90 90 Dallas 41 59 49 69 / 0 10 90 80 Terrell 38 60 49 67 / 0 0 90 90 Corsicana 42 63 53 71 / 0 0 80 90 Temple 41 63 54 74 / 0 10 60 60 Mineral Wells 39 61 49 74 / 0 20 70 50

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.