textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder temperatures are expected this weekend. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the 20s and 30s, and Sunday in the teens and 20s.

- A warming trend begins Monday and continues through the end of the week. By Friday highs will be in the 50s and 60s!

- Chances for snow return mid-week. Uncertainty in track and timing remains high at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Light flurries have ended this afternoon and skies are beginning to clear from the southwest to the northeast. Highs today will be a little below average for this time of year, in the 20s. For reference, average for late February is in the mid 30s. Breezy northwesterly winds decrease after 6pm CDT and become light and variable. Light winds and clear skies will allow for maximum radiational cooling, so have bumped NBM low temperatures down just a touch with a blend of BCCONSShort. Lows will be in the single digits above zero.

Saturday will be mostly sunny in the morning. As we move into the afternoon, a mid-level wave passes through the region with a surface low pressure over the south-central Plains. This will result in increasing afternoon clouds. Some short term guidance hints at isolated, very light flurries Saturday evening. Very low confidence in these flurries occurring or reaching the ground due to a dry subcloud layer. If the column can saturate, and flurries make it to the ground, very little if any accumulation is expected. As far as high temperatures are concerned, very weak WAA in then 900-800 mb layer will help warm temperatures a bit from today, into the mid 20s to upper 30s for areas along the Missouri River Valley. Overnight skies will be mostly clear, however slightly breezy winds overnight will keep low temperatures a bit warmer than they would be otherwise. Lows are expected to fall to the single digits to low teens above zero. Wind chills will be colder overnight thanks to the breezy winds, in the minus teens.

Sunday will be dry with cold highs in the teens and 20s thanks to a strong shot of CAA. Good mixing will allow us to tap into a 30-40 kt LLJ beginning early Sunday morning. Gusts will begin to increase after midnight, reaching their peak around late-morning at 25-30 mph. With northwesterly winds aligned well with the Buffalo Ridge, down sloping on the lee side of this area will result in the highest gusts, up to 35 mph. Winds rapidly decrease in the afternoon. Overnight wind chills will once again fall into the minus single digits and teens.

The below average temperatures will be short lived as high pressure settles over the region Monday. A strong push of WAA will begin a warming trend that looks to continue through the end of the week. Look for highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s with the warmest temperatures over south central South Dakota. Tuesday a second strong push of WAA will boost highs even warmer, in the 40s and 50s.

Tuesday night a weak mid-level wave just clips our northern counties bringing chances for precipitation back into the forecast. Precipitation looks to begin as a rain and snow mix before transitioning to all snow as temperatures cool. A second, stronger wave passes through right on the heels of the first, bringing better chances for snow Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. A large spread in model solutions keeps uncertainty high. If you have mid-week travel plans, be sure to check the forecast again as details become clearer.

The rest of the week looks dry and warm with highs in the 40s to 50s with some 60s possible by Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR ceilings are expected to prevail this period. Breezy northwesterly winds will continue to decrease through the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. Clouds will also dissipate overnight becoming scattered to mostly clear through the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.