textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled conditions remain in the region through the week. Spotty showers and non-severe storms are possible west of I-29 this afternoon, with a low confidence risk of strong winds toward central South Dakota after midnight tonight. - Portions of southeast South Dakota will see a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms Wednesday evening and Thursday night, with lesser risks farther east and south. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats during these periods.

- Temperatures remain in the 80s through the week and rise towards the low 90s by the end of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: Another warm and breezy day continues! Taking a look across the area, mostly clear and quiet conditions persist this afternoon with breezy southeasterly winds. As some lingering isentropic lift continues to progress through the area this afternoon, can't rule out a few spotty diurnally-driven showers to thundershowers. While severe weather is not expected, any festering activity mainly west of I-29 could produce locally heavy downpours and an occasional stroke of lightning. From here, additional showers and weakening thunderstorms will progress through portions of southcentral SD this evening with a shortwave lifting out of the Black Hills. While this activity is not expected to be severe, can't completely rule out up to 40 mph wind gust at times with any stronger activity. Lastly, another warm night is expected with lows mainly upper 50s to low 60s expected.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Looking into the midweek, could see an additional shower or two linger in our far northwest around daybreak. However, should see most of this activity weaken as it lifts to the northeast. From here, quieter conditions will temporarily return with more seasonal conditions as temperatures as peak in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the day. Looking aloft, we're still on track for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop along/ahead of an approaching cold front by late Wednesday afternoon. With dew points in the low to mid 60s, developing thunderstorm will have access to an decently unstable environment characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with about 20-30 kts of shear. With this in mind, a few stronger storms are expected with the main hazards being up to golf ball sized hail and damaging winds up to 65 mph. With currents guidance suggesting instability will gradually weaken with southeastward extent, thinking the greatest threat will be to areas along and west of I-29 from 4pm to 12am. While there could be a lingering severe risk east of I-29 through 3 am with a strengthening nocturnal LLJ, thinking any stronger activity would be isolated at best given the time of day.

Otherwise, scattered showers with isolated thunderstorm could linger across areas east of I-29 through daybreak on Thursday as the front pushes eastwards. Looking into the rest of Thursday, another warm day is ahead with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. Could see the return of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday evening as an approaching shortwave intersects a lingering cold/stationary boundary draped roughly from northeastern SD into southcentral SD. While areas along and north of I-90 look like the current area of interest, its worth noting that most of this developing activity should lift to east-northeast following the bulk shear vector. Nonetheless, the environment will be very similar to Wednesday's with 1000-1800 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of shear. With this in mind, expect additional chances for up to Ping-pong ball sized hail and 60 mph winds with the strongest activity. Lastly, this activity will continue progressing eastwards overnight with the potential for some additional redevelopment across portions of northwestern IA with a nocturnal LLJ late though confidence isn't as high yet.

FRIDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, quasi-zonal flow into the weekend will bring another shortwave through the region on Friday. Given how Thursday's event will likely run late, the main question is if the atmosphere can recover in time for the arrival of the next wave. With this in mind, confidence is low in organized severe weather at this time, However, that will be subject to change depending on how things go with the previously mentioned event. Otherwise, heights will build by Saturday with an approaching mid- level ridge keeping precipitation chances at bay through at least late-Sunday as the ridging begins to break down. Lastly, temperatures will begin to trend warmer into the weekend with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s and low 90s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Besides some high-level cirrus, mostly quiet conditions persist this afternoon. Could see a few scattered showers lift through the area starting tonight mainly as the LLJ strengthens. Decided to add a PROB30 group to KHON to account for the increased probabilities. Otherwise, overcast conditions will persist for most of the day on Wednesday.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.