textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Roller coaster temperatures are expected for the week ahead with spotty chances for precipitation throughout mid-week. Better chances fall along the Missouri River Valley Monday and into northwest Iowa on Tuesday, both of which could be light snow or a rain/snow mix.

- Warmer days Wednesday and then Friday into the weekend. Will also be on the breezier side, resulting in areas of elevated fire danger. The weekend will see breezier conditions but also higher surface dew points.

- A potential pattern change late week into the weekend may bring better chances for precipitation to the area during this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A quick shot of mid level frontal forcing dives south through the Missouri River Valley later tonight into Monday morning. Fairly strong forcing within and just below the dgz as well as some very weak instability just above the front should allow for a band of rain and snow to develop. For now amounts look very light as the forcing moves through fairly quickly.

Monday should prove to be a chilly day with northerly flow and quite a bit of mid and high level cloudiness. Highs generally in the 30s closer to highway 14 with 40s near and south of I-90.

A weak wave will move through the area on Tuesday and bring a quick shot of scattered rain and snow showers. As the wave moves through mid level warm air advection increases, especially Tuesday afternoon and evening near and east of I-29. Given the strength of the warm advection and the weak elevated instability a few locations could see a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation. Will need to keep an eye on surface temperatures as parts of southwest MN could sneak into the lower 30s which might introduce a little light freezing rain. Overall in that Monday into Tuesday night time frame a quick inch or so of snow will be possible near KSUX into northeast NE.

Additional weak upper level support coupled with weak instability will bring another shot for precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday, with some chances lingering into Thursday. Temperatures will be seasonably mild with highs in the 60s on Wednesday and 50s on Thursday.

The focus continues to be Friday into the weekend as upper level flow turns more southwesterly allowing better low and mid level moisture to transport northward. This brings an increased chance for rain and possibly a few thunderstorms during this time. Will continue to see a 40 to 60 percent chance for precipitation during this time. Ensemble output still indicating quite a few members supporting a half an inch to an inch of rain over this time with the higher amounts and better probabilities for an inch or more across northwest IA.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR through the period. Isolated showers in southwest MN could produce a few wind gusts to 40 mph. Otherwise a band of light rain or light snow will be possible near the Missouri RIver towards KSUX late tonight into Monday morning. Northwest winds will gust around 25-30 mph this afternoon into the evening before turning more northerly and decreasing later tonight.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.