textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will begin a slow upwards climb heading into the weekend, with temperatures rising 10 to 15 degrees above normal later next week.

- Persistent dry conditions will continue into next week. Outside of sprinkles Saturday, the probability of >0.10" of rain remain near 30% through next Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 848 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Taking a look across the area, still having trouble recovering relative humidity-wise (RH) with many observations sites showing values in the 20-28 percent range as of 8pm. However, things should gradually improve into the overnight hours as temperatures decrease into the upper 30s to low 40s for the night. Looking into Friday, more warm and breezy conditions are ahead with many areas reach the low to upper 70s for highs. With conditions continuing to trend drier, decided to mix in some of the RAP13/HRRR into our dew points since all indications point to similar conditions to today abet slightly warmer. With this in mind, expect dew points in the 18-25 percent range into the afternoon. While there could be a locally elevated fire danger risk at times, greening fuels will likely keep any fire concerns in the low to moderate categories. Lastly, can't completely rule out few sprinkles with the approaching cold front from Friday night into Saturday so decided to introduce them from early to late morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: A beautiful May afternoon across the region with light winds, plenty of sunshine, and temperatures rising into the middle and upper 60s. Relative humidity values will fall near 20% in quite a few areas, but lighter winds prevent any fire danger.

TONIGHT: Skies clear and temperatures fall early this evening, but a trough passing through the western Dakotas and Nebraska will spread mid-upr cloud cover through the Tri-State area overnight. A sprinkle or two could be possible along, but mostly south of the Missouri River. Clouds should temper the falling temperatures after midnight, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

FRIDAY: A weak frontal boundary passes through the CWA late morning on Friday, pushing a favorable warmer westerly wind through the area. Deep mixing in the afternoon AOA 8000 ft AGL will promote both temperatures rising into the lower to middle 70s, but also a drop in afternoon dew points. Wind gust may approach the 20 to 25 knot range with RH near 25% again, but given relative greenness, fire danger risks remain low.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Really no changes or adjustments needed for the weekend forecast. The likely scenario is a front passes from north to south by mid-morning Saturday, turning winds to the northwest and slowing the upward rise in afternoon temperatures. A few passing showers/sprinkles may move through at the same time. A secondary cold front moves southeast again early on Sunday, with no impacts, other than holding high temperatures into the middle and upper 60s.

NEXT WEEK: A fairly quiet week is ahead, with rising temperatures and a couple rain chances sprinkled in. The broad theme of the week is a slowly expanding mid-lvl ridge eastward through the Central US. Most of Monday is expected to be warmer but rather windy due to an increasing surface pressure gradient. The arrival of a fairly fast moving shortwave over top the building ridge will push a front into the region Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture continues to be limited with this system moving through, which should keep any meaningful (>0.10") probabilities of rain focused east of I-29.

Perhaps a very subtle cooldown on Tuesday with a definite shift in histogram data indicating higher probabilities for temperatures in the 65-70 range than 70+. Those probabilities begin to shift warmer by the middle and especially end of next week as we'll begin to see highs climb into the middle and upper 70s, with 20-30% probabilities for highs above 80 moving northward into next weekend.

The second risk for rain next week arrives in the Thursday timeframe, though a great deal of uncertainty remains with this precipitation chance. Nevertheless, here's a little climate tidbit for the day. The first 7 days of May will be the driest on record for the majority of the climate sites in the CWA. After a dry weekend, by the end of Monday, precipitation in most areas may be 1 to 1.5" below normal for the month.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions will continue across the area this TAF period. Besides some upper-level cirrus this evening, quieter conditions will persist. Otherwise, light northeasterly winds will become light and variable overnight to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.