textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A snow band continues to move east this morning, north of I-90. Highest accumulations are still expected near US Hwy 14, with snow totals around 2-3 inches; isolated higher totals around 4 inches across southwestern Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota. Amounts decrease further south.

- A Winter Weather Advisory continues for portions of eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota into the afternoon where amounts are expected to be the highest. Snow tapers off through early and mid afternoon.

- Chances for snow Sunday continue to trend southward, but areas south of I-90 may still see light snow.

- Periodic low to moderate chances for precipitation continue next week. High confidence in an active spring weather pattern, but low confidence in precipitation timing and type (rain, snow, and/or mix), which are highly dependent on temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 438 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Based on radar trends, have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include Brookings, Murray, and Cottonwood counties as the secondary band begins to tighten up along the US Hwy 14 corridor. Additional snowfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (isolated higher) are expected through the early to mid afternoon hours.

Previous morning update below: Issued at 239 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

NOW-TONIGHT: Snow has begun to move into the US Hwy 14 corridor early this morning, stretching south toward the I-90 corridor. Observations have at time shown visibility below one mile in falling snow with a locally heavier band associated with an area of lift. Snow moves east across the area today, tapering off through the afternoon hours in southwestern MN. Still anticipating storm total snow accumulations around 1-3 inches. Locally higher amounts around 4 inches expected across southwestern MN where the better frontogenetic forcing and PVA set up. Snowfall rates may briefly exceed 0.5" per hour across southwestern MN. Not expecting much blowing or drifting snow today, with northeasterly winds gusting up to 25 mph, and lighter winds where the heaviest snow is expected. However, as already seen this morning, falling snow will lead to reduced visibility. If traveling, be prepared for wintry travel conditions.

Did extend the Winter Weather Advisory for Lincoln and Lyon counties in MN through 3 PM today to account for some of the slower guidance in exiting snowfall.

Temperatures today will be quite varied across the area - in the 20s where snow is falling and warming into the 40s across the MO River Valley. Lows tonight in the single digits and teens, and areas with new snow may fall below zero.

SUNDAY: Seasonal temperatures on Sunday. Guidance continues to trend southward with the light snow potential, with the better forcing and moisture across southern NE/IA and areas south. Expect NBM to continue to trend further south with pops through today, so most should stay dry on Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Active pattern to start meteorological spring and the month of March with numerous waves progged to move through the northern and central Plains. Still questions on timing and temperatures, leading to uncertainty in precipitation type and accumulations. First wave moves through Monday into Tuesday, likely bringing a mix of rain and snow. Additional waves mid and late week. Temperatures fluctuate, but generally near to above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

LATE THIS AFTERNOON: Looking across the region, temperatures range from the low 50s (Highway 14 corridor) to the 60s (Highway 20 corridor as of 2 PM. Highs will reach near or exceeding records at a few sites in northwest IA and southwest MN (for example, Sanborn, Sibley, Worthington, Windom, Lake Park, and Spencer). Model blends have struggled all day in keeping up with efficient mixing, with gusts peaking in the 40s and dew points dropping to 17 to 25 degrees throughout the day in the Warning area. Dew points have regularly dipped to near or below the NBM 5th percentile. Have expanded the Red Flag Warning to account for localized, more efficient mixing. Near critical to critical fire danger persists across the region through sunset. See the Fire Weather section below for more details.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY: This evening, attention turns to a cold front dropping south into the Northern Plains and a trailing compact shortwave in northwest flow aloft. Warm air advection and moderate mid level frontogenetical forcing with the wave should prompt sufficient top-down saturation to produce light to moderate snow near and north of a De Smet to Windom line late tonight into Saturday morning. This area can expect around 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation by Saturday afternoon. The big lingering question is exact snowband placement and how far south snow will occur, especially for anyone traveling toward the Twin Cities or Fargo this weekend. It is possible to get a light (<1") dusting of snow as far south as Chamberlain to Sioux Falls to Storm Lake. However the 00z/06z/12z deterministic models have maintained the northward shift of the snowband placement, putting the bulk of the heaviest snow (3- 6") oriented from northeast SD through west central MN and toward the Twin Cities metro. There also remains a little uncertainty regarding when snow will end Saturday afternoon in southwest MN. A few models suggesting flurries or light snow may linger as late as Saturday evening northeast of the Buffalo Ridge, where isolated amounts of 3 to 4 inches cannot be ruled out.

Aside from snow creating minor travel impacts, the other main story will be a cool down heading into Saturday. Sites receiving 1+ inches of snow are unlikely to see temperatures above the freezing mark Saturday. Further south, highs in the 30s to mid 40s will be common but warming will somewhat depend on clouds clearing.

SUNDAY: Strong Arctic high pressure builds eastward along the Canadian border early Sunday. Currently have low temperatures starting the day in the single digits to teens, but if clouds clear out overnight, lows could be colder than currently forecast. Broad warm air advection brings a low chance of light snow or flurries Sunday, but impacts look to be minor at this time.

MONDAY: Upper level flow becomes zonal across the Plains Monday as a strong upper trough progresses through the West. A leading, zonal flow shortwave brings a low to moderate (30-50%) chance of rain or snow Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. Expect a breezy, cool Monday with highs in the 40s.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND: A progressive Colorado Low ejects into the Plains mid week and perhaps another Friday/next weekend, bringing periodic, spring-like precipitation chances across the Central U.S. through the week. While a blend of model guidance would currently favor highs in the 40s and 50s, a majority of deterministic model guidance runs much cooler with highs 5-10 degrees cooler daily. Given the low confidence in temperatures, confidence in precipitation type will be highly dependent on speed and timing of the wave (i.e., snow more likely at night).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Snow band from northeastern SD along US Hwy 14 into the I-90 corridor of central MN continues to move east through the early to mid afternoon, leading to MVFR/IFR and isolated/brief LIFR conditions in this area. Light to moderate snow and accumulations expected. MVFR stratus may linger in this region through the evening hours. Elsewhere, VFR conditions should prevail through the period.

Winds generally out of the east through Sunday morning, withs gusts around 20 knots.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for SDZ040. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ071-072-080-081. IA...None. NE...None.