textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northwest winds with gusts up to 30-40 mph will slowly weaken through the overnight hours.

- Continued dry and breezy conditions will lead to additional elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday and possibly again Monday.

- Meaningful precipitation is not expected through Wednesday.

- Late week southwest flow aloft will bring back chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms but confidence low on any details.

UPDATE

Issued at 917 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The forecast remains on track for the short term. Winds remain out of the northwest with gusts expected slowly weaken through the overnight hours, though remain elevated for this period of time. Low temperatures remain on track to fall below freezing tonight, down to the 20s across the area. Some sensitive vegetation could be affected by the cold. Though thankfully temperatures will quickly warm above freezing through the first half of the morning hours.

Winds will restrengthen on Saturday with wind gusts expected to reach up to 30-40 mph again. High temperatures will warm to the upper 40s and 50s while humidity values fall to about 15-25% across the area. While winds and humidity will reach critical fire danger levels, fuels continue to green across the area. Thus, only high fire danger is expected for the day tomorrow. Low temperatures will remain on the colder side, falling to near to just below freezing overnight.

Sunday will be a quiet day as surface ridging slides through the Northern Plains. This will result in much lighter winds while highs further warm to the 50s to low 60s. With fuels continuing to green along with lighter winds, no fire danger is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Northwest flow remains in place through tonight into Saturday with another breezy day expected on Saturday. While some high to very high fire danger will be possible on Saturday, fuels are starting to green up and temperatures will be on the cooler aide, so critical conditions are not expected. Otherwise a chilly night is ahead as winds average 10-20 mph through the night and temperatures dip in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Temperature recovery on Saturday will provide a little relief from wind gusts around 35 mph. Also expecting quite a bit more sunshine, but by late afternoon peak mixing should allow for cumulus development and with a very small amount of instability at the top of the4 mixed layer a few sprinkles, but will not include this in the forecast as the amount of instability is very low.

A weak wave on the backside of the main trough will bring weak lift and saturation to parts of east central SD into southwest MN. A few very light rain or snow showers will be possible but impacts will be minor.

Sunday will continue to see cool northerly flow but decreased speeds. This will provide the area with a quiet and slightly less cool day, with temperatures clawing back to near normal.

Monday will rebound back to well above normal temperatures as fairly strong southerly flow brings back warmer air. Highs generally in the 70s.

A weak backdoor front settles in Tuesday, but temperatures will remain very mild with a very strong southerly surge expected Wednesday with temperatures expected to surge into the 70s and 80s. Sunday through Wednesday should be dry.

The is general agreement on trough over the Rockies late week but strength and placement of low pressure is very different amongst the many model runs. However, this will bring back the threat for showers and thunderstorms with coverage dependent upon placement of the upper level low pressure.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The bulk of the mid and high level clouds continue to push eastwards. This will leave VFR conditions for the overnight hours. Winds continue to weaken but remain elevated. The elevated winds will persist through the overnight hours before restrengthening out of the northwest by tomorrow afternoon. Gusts up to 20-35 knots is expected. These breezy winds will weaken during the evening hours on Saturday to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.