textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy northwest winds will diminish around sunset alleviating the near critical fire weather conditions today.

- Additional elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are expected again Monday and Wednesday.

- Meaningful precipitation is not expected through Wednesday.

- Late week southwest flow aloft will bring back chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms but confidence is low on any details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Very dry and windy conditions have brought another day of very high/near critical fire danger to the area. While many of the fuels have begin to quickly green up, the warm season tall grasses are still lagging a bit and remain susceptible. Winds will slacken around and after sunset diminishing the near critical fire weather concerns.

Later tonight a weak wave will track by mainly to the north, scraping by parts of highway 14 into southwest MN. This will likely bring through a short period of scattered rain/snow showers with accumulations remaining on the minimal side. As this system passes a weak cool front at the surface will sag south and keep temperatures on the cooler side again Sunday, albeit a bit warmer than today and right around the seasonal normals. Highs generally near 50 in southwest MN to near 60 along the Mo River Valley.

On Monday flow aloft flattens and brings in a westerly warmer shot of air in the low levels, with surface winds increasing from the south. Highs will push into the 70s in most locations with a few 80s in central SD. Once again, breezy and warm conditions coupled with dry air will bring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions to the area.

A weak front sags south on Tuesday dropping winds and alleviating fire weather concerns. Temperatures will again be warm with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Well above normal temperatures are anticipated on Wednesday with a few locations possibly creeping up towards record warm highs. Most records are hovering in the lower to mid 90s. One thing fighting reaching the record warm highs will be a south to slightly southeast potential for surface winds which usually does not support the deeper mixing needed to reach into the mid 90s. However, with southerly winds likely gusting to 30 to 40 mph near critical fire weather conditions are again expected.

The next potential weather maker for the area will be a deepening trough over the Central Rockies Thursday which should drift northeast into Friday. A bit better agreement amongst the models this time around in deepening this low in south central Canada Friday and then just kind of locking it in place across central Canada into the weekend. What this should mean is another warm day Thursday with a good chance a cold front moves into the area which will bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Cooler temperatures also become much more likely Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds will weaken this evening but remain light out of the northwest tonight. Sprinkles and flurries are possible mainly along and northeast of a line from KBKX down to about KOTG tonight as well. Mainly clear skies and light northerly winds are expected for the afternoon hours tomorrow.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.