textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the midweek. Record warm lows remain possible by Tuesday.

- Breezier conditions on Tuesday will promote locally elevated fire weather concerns mainly across the Missouri River Valley. However, a few scattered showers could put a damper on things.

- Confidence continues to increase in more concrete snow chances (40%-70%) during the late week. Near-advisory level winds along with falling snow could to some travel concerns by Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: An unseasonably warm day continues! Taking a look across the area, mostly clear conditions persist this afternoon with many areas sitting in the low to upper 40s. With light westerly surface winds and lingering warm air advection (WAA) aloft, expect temperatures to top out somewhere in the upper 40 to upper 50s for the day with the warmest conditions along the Missouri River Valley. With this in mind, we'll have to watch the temperatures at Mitchell through this evening as a high of 55 degrees would shatter the original record of 53 degrees set in 1953. Otherwise, the above normal temperatures will extend into the overnight hours as temperatures gradually decrease into the upper 30s to low 40s for the night.

TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Looking into the midweek, another warm day is ahead by Tuesday as westerly surface winds and increasing mid-level warm air advection (WAA) ahead of an approaching wave help surface temperatures rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s for the day. As increasing dPVA interacts with a strengthening LLJ, could see a few scattered showers develop mainly along and west of I-29 through early afternoon with the cold front. While accumulations are expected to be light, can't completely rule out an isolated 0.10" of an inch somewhere across southcentral SD. Otherwise, a tightening SPG will lead to breezier conditions throughout the day on Tuesday with gusts between 25-35 mph possible through the evening.

With all this in mind, the combination of unseasonably warm temperatures and breezier winds may lead to a few hours of high to very high fire danger. Nonetheless, with higher dew points (40%-60%) concerns will be directly tied to fuels staying dry and temperatures staying mild. If one of both of those things don't pan out during the day, any fire weather concerns will be significantly lower. Shifting gears to Wednesday, quieter conditions will return as a surface high moves in to replace the departing system. An influx of cooler air will work to lower our overall temperatures with highs mainly in the 20s to mid 30s. Otherwise, can't completely rule out few convective snow showers to start the day on Wednesday given the ribbon of strengthening dPVA. However, any accumulations should be limited.

THURSDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, an active pattern returns by Thursday as another quick clipper wave dives across the northern plains bringing our next chances for rain and/or snow. While accumulative amounts continue to look on the lighter side given the broad warm air advective (WAA) regime, the highest confidence for accumulation continues to be focused across areas east of I-29 where the better moisture pool sets up. This sentiment is also agreed upon in most ensembles with most members shows showing low to moderate confidence (30%-50%) in a 0.10" of an inch of QPF with the highest probabilities across southwestern MN. Additional chances for light snow will be possible by Friday as moisture wraps around the broad mid-level wave. However, current thinking is things would be more snow showery vs stratiform given the ribbon of dPVA and instability above the boundary layer. Nonetheless, given the chances for snow on Thursday and Friday; most areas could see at least a dusting with the potential for a fresh couple inches of snow east of I-29.

From here, the focus then turns to the breezier conditions towards the end of the week. The combination of a tightening SPG and the passage of multiple cold fronts will lead to gusty winds on both Thursday and Friday. Though the winds will be slightly stronger on Friday (35-45 mph vs 30-40 mph), the potential for this to be collocated with falling snow could create periodic visibility reductions and thus minor travel impacts on Thursday and Friday. While there could be a need for a wind headline by Friday, decided to forgo it for now since guidance has more isolated spots hitting advisory criteria vs widespread coverage. Lastly, temperatures will trend colder into the weekend with highs mainly in the 20s to 30s each day through Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. Besides some high- level clouds over the area this afternoon, the main concern will be a some llws overnight as the LLJ strengthens. Otherwise, a few rain showers will move through by Tuesday with a cold front. As winds become more northwesterly, could see some breeziness at times to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.