textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect dry and warmer conditions for tomorrow with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s. - Above normal temperatures will persist over the next several days with the warmest conditions expected on Monday, when there is a 40-70% chance of highs in the 60s along the Missouri River Valley.

- With no major system ahead into the new week, expect mostly quiet conditions to persist with only low (15-30%) chances of light precipitation returning Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

It's been a dreary, but seasonably chilly day on this Tuesday. A stratus deck has been stubborn to fade over the area, with the western edge over south-central South Dakota gradually eroding. This erosion gradually spread westward over the next couple of hours, so you may see some peaks of sunshine just before it sets. For tonight, a surface low over Canada will bring a cold front through the area, but impacts are not expected other than a shift from southwesterly surface winds to northwesterly winds. Warm air advection (WAA) increases ahead of the frontal passage, but it does not appear to be enough to overcome a wedge of dry air in the mid-levels that will prevent precipitation from reaching the ground. The column will at least make an attempt to saturate by the early morning hours tomorrow, but it will likely be too little to late. If there is precipitation that makes it the ground, it will either be light rain or light freezing rain depending on surface temperatures. The chance of precipitation reaching the ground is less than 15%. Speaking of surface temperatures, the previously mentioned WAA will mean temperatures will remain fairly steady and even warm up some during the overnight hours. So any impacts from frozen precipitation would be minimal given temperatures will be above freezing across most of the area by mid-morning tomorrow. Tomorrow will be a mild day as ridging aloft continues to build into the area. Look for highs tomorrow to range from the mid-50s in south- central South Dakota to the low-40s over southwest Minnesota. Some of the higher resolution guidance shows another stratus deck developing somewhere along and northeast of a Huron to Mitchell to Sioux City line. Higher confidence this will occur over parts of southwest Minnesota, and this where the coolest temperatures are expected anyway. However, if this develops farther west, then temperatures may end up cooler than the current forecast as far west as the I-29 corridor. Either way, above average temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon, there are still just some questions on how widespread the upper-40s and low-50s will be.

Another cold front moves through tomorrow night, bringing in a reinforcing shot of colder air into our area heading into Friday. Could see some areas of drizzle with the clouds associated with this system during the morning hours on Friday, but uncertainty is high on the depth of the cloud layer and so did not add any drizzle mention to the forecast at this time. As is the case for this time of year, will have to watch temperatures closely if any drizzle occurs, with the best chance (30-60%) of below freezing temperatures mainly along and northeast of a De Smet to Pipestone to Jackson line Friday morning. Any impacts would be minimal though considering temperatures will warm above freezing area-wide Friday afternoon, with highs in the mid-30s to low-40s expected. High pressure settles into the upper Midwest Friday night, making for what will be one of the chillier nights of the next several days with lows dropping to the low teens to low 20s Saturday morning. The surface high shifts quickly east of the region on Saturday, and an upper-wave will move into the area behind it. Not expecting precipitation with this system due to a lack of moisture. Temperatures will gradually rise through the weekend, with highs on Saturday ranging from the mid-30s over southwest Minnesota to the low-50s in south-central South Dakota. On Sunday, highs will range from the mid-40s to upper-50s, warmest in south-central South Dakota.

Monday looks to take the cake warm temperature-wise, with fairly good agreement amongst the guidance that this will be the warmest day of the next seven with highs into the 50s area-wide. There is the potential for highs in the low-60s along the Missouri River Valley, with NBM probabilities of highs in the 60s around 50-80% in these areas, and as high as about a 25% chance as far northeast as a Huron to Sioux Falls to Storm Lake line. We do look to remain dry as well, so if you like warm temperatures, Monday looks to be a good day to get outside! Of course, this is still several days away, so this forecast will be refined as we get closer. Either way, there is fairly good consensus amongst the guidance that temperatures will peak early next week. The next chance (15-30%) of precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, but uncertainty is large on precipitation types (we could be warm enough for plain rain) and on how much moisture will even be available in the first place for precipitation. So be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast. Otherwise, above-normal temperatures look to continue through the latter part of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1009 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

MVFR ceilings continue to slowly erode from west to east late this evening. This trend will continue as winds eventually turn to the west and northwest Thursday morning. Mid-lvl but especially upr-lvl clouds will persist well through Thursday. Occasionally gusty west northwest winds will be possible in the afternoon.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.