textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record to record temperatures continue into the middle of next week. Average departures from normal will run +25 to +35 degrees.

- Fire weather concerns grow by Sunday and Monday as breezy southerly winds develop. Most areas at "high" grassland fire danger index levels, with locally "very high" conditions possible. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Gregory County SD Sunday afternoon.

- Outside of a few sprinkles and/or flurries near south of I-90 today, dry weather expected until at least late Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Rain/snow chances (greater than 50%) remain focused north of I-90 into Wednesday, while a secondary system brings broad 20-40% risks for light snow Thursday into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 235 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tumbling temperatures last evening have leveled off as mid to high level clouds increase across the area. Have maintained the potential for isolated sprinkles/flurries this morning, but will continue to evaluate as latest forecast soundings still depict a deep dry sub-cloud layer.

Sunday looks a little more mixy with efficient south-southwest low level flow, and given our ability to overachieve with even lighter winds, have nudged the NBM toward slightly warmer and especially drier/breezier guidance by mixing in some HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to excel in these patterns. This does bring relative humidity/wind gusts close to critical levels across our far southwest CWA, so issued a Fire Weather Watch for Gregory County from Noon-6 PM CST Sunday. Wind gusts are more uncertain farther to the northeast, but will monitor trends in the models to see if this watch needs to be expanded with later forecasts.

No significant changes to the mid-late week precipitation chances. Seeing a slight northward trend for the first system in the 13/00Z ensembles, though still moderate (50-70%) chances for rain and/or snow across at least the northern half of our forecast area Tuesday night-early Wednesday. Enough spread in the timing/track of the late week wave that we still carry a broad 20-40% chance for mainly light snow Thursday-Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

THIS Afternoon: After temperatures fell into the teens thanks to strong radiational cooling this morning, we've rebounded nicely this afternoon into the 50s again. More amazingly is the degree of warmth we're seeing despite nearly light to variable winds. While 925-850 mb temperatures are near the 90th percentile of climatology, we're seeing a strong surface response from dry and snow-less ground cover. In many locations, we're also now thawing the first layers of top-soil with a thaw down past 4" in quite a few locations.

TONIGHT: We're likely to see a very warm night tonight as southerly winds stay mixy in response to surface warm frontal development in the Tri-State area. Short term models are showing a narrow channel of 850:700 mb warm advection focused along I-90 overnight, which may serve to increase mid-lvl clouds.

SATURDAY: A subtle mid-lvl wave passing along I-90 early Saturday morning could bring just enough lift to produce virga or even a few pockets of sprinkles to light rain into mid-morning. Soundings show the base of this activity near 5-6K ft AGL, but also maintain a very dry layer below the cloud deck. Once this wave passes, we should again see another very warm day in the afternoon with highs in the 50s to 60s. Have blended a bit more HRRR/RAP into the NBM for highs which will see more of the area into the 60s.

SUNDAY: Another very warm day is likely Sunday with temperatures potentially rising another 1-3 degrees over Saturday. Southwesterly surface flow increases through the day as lee-side troughing deepens. The arrival of 925:850 mb winds approaching 30 to 40 knots will promote both a strong warming signal but also a mix-down of dry air signal. NBM 25/75th Td spreads grow to 7-10 degrees in the afternoon and evening, indicating the potential further mixdown of dry air indicated by higher resolution guidance. In coordination with neighbors have nudged down afternoon dew points towards the 25th percentile. While not significant, the increase in afternoon winds and lowering of dew points will lead to widespread "high" GFDI values with pockets of "very high" GFDI values also possible.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: There still remains some disagreement with medium range models on the track and southward progression of a frontal boundary through the Tri-State area early Monday. The GFS/CMC both stall this boundary, while the ECMWF push the boundary further south. This difference leads to a nearly 12 degrees spread in the 25/75th percentiles for high temperatures in the afternoon, with the greatest spread north of I-90. The GFS has shown signs of trending closer to the EC, but so much is hinged on the amplitude and track of upper troughing arriving from the west later on Tuesday. For now, will maintain the deterministic NBM, but temperatures should still shift 5+ degrees either side of the current forecast.

PoPs have increased Tuesday into Tuesday night as the mid-lvl trough approaches. Strong divergence on the left exit of an approaching jet should allow the trough to deepen slightly as it moves into the Plains. That said, there still remains intensity differences in the upper wave with the CMC/GFS stronger and further southeast. Regardless of solution, precipitation chances increase on the warm advection wing Tuesday afternoon with probabilities for measurable QPF now >60% in areas mostly north of I-90 and to the northeast into west central Minnesota. Precipitation types remain strongly favored towards rain.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: The evolving mid-lvl flow pattern will continue to lead to a slightly more interesting weather setup for the middle and end of next week. After the departure of the Tuesday/Wednesday system temperatures may cool slightly, but still remain above normal. With a long wave trough across the western half of the CONUS this will leave the region more susceptible to additional trough ejection and deepening further east. One such wave to watch will be arriving in the Plains around Thursday and Friday. From an ensemble perspective, ECE/GEFS/CMC and various AI based solutions remain all over the board, resulting in low probabilities of measurable precipitation over a very large area. While confidence in temperatures hovering near the seasonal normals remains slightly higher, this could complicate the ptype of any system that approaches. Additionally, we'll likely develop several days with slightly stronger wind depending on trough deepening.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions and variable winds generally below 12kt will prevail through this TAF period. Cloud bases around 10kft AGL or below may produce very spotty sprinkles prior to sunset, but impacts to aviation are not expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A very dry pattern, snow-free ground which has begun to thaw through the upper few inches, and deep south-southwest flow will promote efficient mixing on Sunday. This should yield a very warm day with temperatures/dew points/gusts favoring the warmer/drier/breezier side of ensemble guidance.

This should lead to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, especially toward south-central South Dakota where slightly stronger southwest winds are favored. With a potential for afternoon relative humidity as low as 20 percent, along with southwest winds gusting near to above 25 MPH, have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Gregory County SD from Noon-6 PM CST Sunday.

Elsewhere across the forecast area, wind gusts and RH reaching critical levels is more uncertain, though values do look close as far east as I-29. Will continue to monitor the forecast trends for possible expansion of the watch.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

The forecast over the next 4 to 5 days will feature near record to record highs and near record warm low temperatures:

Record high temperatures:

February 14: KFSD: 66/1954 KSUX: 62/1934 KHON: 60/1999 KMHE: 65/1954 February 15: KFSD: 63/1921 KSUX: 67/1921 KHON: 66/1921 KMHE: 66/1921 February 16: KFSD: 64/1981 KSUX: 66/1981 KHON: 62/2017 KMHE: 63/2017

Record warm low temperatures:

February 14: KFSD: 35/2002 KSUX: 37/2002 KHON: 32/2002 February 16: KFSD: 35/1998 KSUX: 37/1998 KHON: 36/2011 February 17: KFSD: 33/1992 KSUX: 37/1930 KHON: 35/1981 February 18: KFSD: 38/1994 KSUX: 39/1971 KHON: 35/1994

Additionally climate perspectives indicate that the current forecast through Monday the 16th would push the mean monthly temperature departure at Sioux Falls (+15 degrees), Sioux City (+15 degrees), and Huron (+18 degrees) as the warmest February on record through that date.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for SDZ050. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.