textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to below normal temperatures will continue well into next week with highs mainly in the 70s to 80s expected.

- Scattered showers will return to the area by Monday afternoon. While severe weather is not expected, an occasional stroke of lightning and strong wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible.

- More concrete shower and thunderstorm chances (50%-80%) will return by Wednesday. At this time severe weather is not anticipated. However, trends will need to be monitored.

UPDATE

Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The forecast remains on track with beautiful fall-like conditions expected today as highs peak in the low to upper 70s. With no precipitation chances expected and marginally breezy northwesterly winds, this would be a good opportunity to get out the house and accomplish those outdoor projects so make sure to take full advantage. Otherwise, expect the quieter conditions to extend into the first half of Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s expected. We'll likely see scattered showers return by the second half of Monday as our next wave arrives. While severe weather is not expected, an occasional stroke of lightning and strong wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with some of the developing activity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mid level moisture around 700 mb and moderate lapse rates above this layer will lead to CAPE values of about 500-1000 J.kg through the afternoon. This should generally be confined to areas near and south of a Sioux City to Storm Lake line. With elevated shear values sitting around 40-50 knots an isolated stronger updraft or two will be possible with hail to the size of dimes and nickels the main threat. Broad troughiness will push this mid level convergence and steeper lapse rates south of the area this evening, leaving behind dry and cool conditions for tonight.

Broad low pressure across central and eastern Canada will keep cooler northerly flow in place through Monday. Lows in the 40s to lower 50s and highs mostly in the 70s are expected.

There will be a weak piece of energy dropping into the area Monday afternoon and evening, mainly to the north of the area. Decent surface heating should lead to 250 to 500 J/kg CAPE and with a very dry subcloud layer creating a fairly classic inverted V sounding, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible.

A strong upper level jet will spill into the Northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday and bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. For now it appears that this will bring some very strong elevated shear into the area so it will be a matter of timing and how much instability that this pattern can support to bring a threat for severe weather. For now it appears that instability will be on the low side, but if we can somehow get 1500 J/kg or so with this shear we would see some severe weather, Something to watch out for.

Confidence on any details Thursday into Saturday a little lower as fairly strong northwest flow continues. Any wave will bring warmer temperatures ahead and cooler behind, so that will determine a lot and will need to wait to see how things play out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Besides a few clouds, no significant aviation concerns are expected. Otherwise, northwesterly surface winds will become marginally breezy at times with gusts up to 25 mph possible at times.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.