textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A few very light flurries are possible this evening over the higher elevation areas of southwestern Minnesota. Little to no accumulation is expected.

-A cold front will move through the region Saturday, reducing temperatures and increasing wind gusts. Gusts of 25-30 mph are expected. Low to moderate chances (35-60%) for snow accompany the passage of the front. Accumulation most likely along the Missouri River counties of a trace to a half inch.

- Warm and dry conditions expected for Sunday and Monday. Tuesday and into the second half of next week bring more chances for rain and snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Looking aloft at satellite water vapor imagery, we can see a deep upper trough axis has moving east across the region. Steepening lapse rates and frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer work to weakly destabilize the atmosphere. However, a deep layer of very dry air will likely prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground as a vorticity band works east through the evening. A few flurries are possible at elevation in southwestern Minnesota, but little to no accumulation is expected. Highs for today look in good shape, in the mid 30s to low 40s over south central South Dakota. Lows will fall to the teens and 20s. Westerly winds will become northwesterly overnight behind a surface cold front, and be on the breezy side with gusts 15-20 mph.

As the trough axis moves to the east Saturday, a strong push of cold air will flow into the region behind the previously mentioned cold front. Winds will increase out of the northwest after daybreak through mid-afternoon as we mix through the 850 mb layer, tapping into the LLJ. Widespread wind gusts of 25-30 mph are expected. A band of positive vorticity advection will work to reinforce the cold front, resulting in a round of light snow showers, mostly along the Missouri River. Totals will be light, a trace to around a half an inch is possible. While snow is expected to be light, combined with the winds could result in brief reductions in visibility. If you have plans to travel Saturday afternoon, plan accordingly for minor travel impacts. Highs for Saturday will be around average for this time of year, in the upper 20s to low 30s along and south of Highway 20. Lows will fall to the single digits to teens above zero.

Sunday surface high pressure builds into the region bringing with it a strong push of WAA. Conditions will be dry with highs climbing back into the 30s to 40s. Dry and warm conditions continue Monday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Diurnally breezy afternoon winds both days combine with warm temperatures and result in elevated Grassland Fire Danger. With no snow cover, the dried grasses and crops will easily catch and carry fire. Tuesday will be an even higher risk day with highs in the 40s and 50s, and wind gusts increasing to 30-35 mph. Portions of south central South Dakota could see gusts approaching 45 mph. Grassland Fire Danger will be Very High in this area. So, please use caution.

In addition on Tuesday precipitation looks to return to the forecast. An embedded shortwave in an upper trough will bring low chances (<25%) for rain along and north of Highway 14 in the afternoon. Rain is expected to change over to snow overnight and continue into Wednesday afternoon. Chances for snow remain in the forecast through the rest of the week and into next weekend. Details vary widely at this point, but if you have travel plans now is a good time to start to plan for possible winter driving conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Taking a look across the area, pockets of flurries continue to progress across areas east of I-29 this evening. While this has lead to a few MVFR cigs with lower stratus, should see things clear out over the next couple of hours. From here, could see additional flurries to start the day on Saturday especially along the Missouri River Valley and portions of southwestern MN. Otherwise, predominant northwesterly flow will continue across the area with periodic breeziness by Saturday afternoon.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.