textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record to record temperatures persist through Tuesday. Average highs will be +25 to +35 degrees above average.

- A Red Flag Warming remains in effect for locations west of the James River until 6 pm this evening. Elsewhere, high to very high fire danger will persist through the rest of the afternoon hours.

- Rain and some snow chances (30-50%) return Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The bulk of the precipitation will stay north and east of the area.

- A second round of light snow is possible (30-50%) for Thursday. As of now, there is a 20-60% chance for snowfall amounts to exceed an inch. Details can still change over the coming days but minor impacts to travel are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Temperatures have warmed to the 50s and 60s this afternoon while humidity values have fallen to 20-30%. Winds remain somewhat breezy west of the James River with gusts up to 20-30 mph. The warm and breezy conditions are resulting in critical fire danger conditions being reached. More details can be found in the fire weather discussion below. These conditions will continue through 6 pm before the sun begins to set, cooling temperatures and resulting in weakening winds. Low temperatures overnight will still be warm, only falling to the 20s, 30s, and maybe only down to about 40F. There could also be some patchy fog that develops across parts of northwest Iowa.

Monday will be another quiet and warm day, though not as warm as Sunday as 850 mb temperatures will only warm to about +5C to +10C. Mixing these temperatures to the surface will result in high temperatures up to the 50s and 60s. Winds will be very light so no fire danger is expected. Low temperatures will fall to 30s and 40s overnight.

A stronger upper level low will eject into the Northern Plains on Tuesday. Warm air advection (WAA) will strengthen aloft, warming 850 mb temperatures to +6C to +12C. While mixing these temperatures to the surface would result in very warm temperatures but there could be low level stratus that prevents the full extent of mixing from being realized. Latest LREF shows shows about a 50% chance for locations along and north of a Chamberlain, South Dakota to Sioux Falls, South Dakota, to Storm Lake, Iowa line seeing >50% cloud cover. This also aligns well with the approximate location of the warm front though the front's location can still meander over the next day or two. The cloud cover and location of the front will affect how warm temperatures get during the afternoon hours. For now, still think that temperatures will warm to the upper 50s to low 60s along and north of the previously mentioned line. Temperatures look to further warm to the to the mid to upper 60s and 70s south of the line, warmest along the Missouri River Valley. The warm temperatures along with breezy winds could result in another day of elevated fire danger across the area. There could be some rain showers during the afternoon timeframe but the greatest chance (30- 50%) for rain will come Tuesday evening and night. However, the ensembles remain in agreement in the highest probabilities for precipitation remaining north and east of the forecast area. Low temperatures will only fall to the 30s overnight.

And chance for rain will be coming to an end Wednesday morning, leaving mostly dry conditions for the rest of the day. A few snowflakes could mix in with the retreating precipitation. Rainfall amounts look to be light from a few hundredths to up to a tenth or two and be focused north of I-90. A cold front will push through the area during the morning hours on Wednesday, the post frontal airmass will bring high temperatures down to the 40s and 50s but winds will be strengthening through the day. The NBM supports this as it shows a widespread 40-70% chance for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph Wednesday afternoon. Despite the cooler, but above average, temperatures, humidity values look to fall to near critical levels. The lower humidity and gusty winds look to continue elevated fire danger chances. This time, locations south of I-90 are most likely to see elevated fire danger conditions.

The break in precipitation will be short lived as another upper level wave ejects into the Northern and Central Plains on Thursday. There remains large uncertainty in the precipitation potential with this wave as deterministic guidance varies in its evolution. Most of the guidance shows an open wave quickly pushing through the region while the operational Euro shows the low closing off. The ensembles generally show a more progressive open wave with only the Euro ensemble showing a close low. The most favored ensemble cluster shows a 40-60% chance for precipitation amounts to exceed a tenth of an inch. Although high temperatures may warm up to about 40F in some spots, the precipitation type looks to be mainly snow as supported by the ensembles. Chances for snow will persist through Thursday night before ending Friday morning. With remaining breezy winds in place, patchy blowing snow is possible which could affect travel. The ensembles show a 20-60% chance for snowfall amounts to exceed an inch. The Euro ensemble shows the highest probabilities of the ensembles.

The end of the week will see a return to generally quiet conditions as broad troughing lingers over the Northern Plains. High temperatures will look to be near seasonable in the 20s and 30s with lows falling to the single digits and teens.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will persist across the area this TAF period. Besides a couple hours of LLWS with an approaching cold front, no significant aviation concerns are expected. Lastly, breezy southerly winds will gradually decrease becoming more light and variable to end the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Temperatures have warmed to the 50s and 60s so far today. With dew points in in the 20s and 30s, humidity levels have fallen to near critical to critical levels across the vast majority of the area. Winds remain generally light but have seen gusts up to 20-30 mph so far west of the James River. This is the same area where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. The Warming remains in effect until 6 pm this evening. Think the Warning remains valid as it currently but will continue to monitor conditions for the rest of the afternoon hours. Could see a small expansion to the north and east if winds increase in this area.

Light winds on Monday will preclude any fire danger. However, winds pick up out of the southeast on Tuesday. Gusts up to 20-35 mph will accompany the southeast winds. At the same time, temperatures look to be very warm with highs in the upper 50s, 60s, and 70s. Humidity values look to fall to near critical levels, down to around 30% at this time. While elevated fire danger is likely for Tuesday, stratus and the locations of a warm front could result in cooler high temperatures depending on how the variables turn out. Too early to make any meaningful changes to the forecast but something to keep an eye on going forward.

Elevated fire danger could persist through Wednesday as high temperatures remain above average in the 40s and 50s. West/northwesterly winds will become breezy with gusts potentially gusting up to 40 mph. Humidity will fall to near critical levels along the Missouri River Valley keeping high to very high fire danger in place.

CLIMATE

Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The forecast through Tuesday will feature near record to record highs and near record warm low temperatures:

Record high temperatures:

February 15: KFSD: 63/1921 KSUX: 67/1921 KHON: 66/1921 KMHE:66/1921 February 16: KFSD: 64/1981 KSUX: 66/1981 KHON: 62/2017 KMHE:63/2017 February 17: KFSD: 70/1981 KSUX: 71/1981 KHON: 67/1913 KMHE:70/1913

Record warm low temperatures:

February 16: KFSD: 35/1998 KSUX: 37/1998 KHON: 36/2011 February 17: KFSD: 33/1992 KSUX: 37/1930 KHON: 35/1981 February 18: KFSD: 38/1994 KSUX: 39/1971 KHON: 35/1994

Additionally climate perspectives indicate that the current forecast through Monday the 16th would push the mean monthly temperature departure at Sioux Falls (+15 degrees), Sioux City (+15 degrees), and Huron (+18 degrees) as the warmest February on record through that date.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ050-052- 053-057>059-063-064. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.