textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northwest winds will continue into the evening with gusts between 30-40 mph expected. This will cause high to very high fire danger.

- Continued dry and breezy conditions will lead to additional elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday and possibly again Monday.

- Meaningful precipitation is not expected through Wednesday.

- Late week southwest flow aloft will bring back chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms but confidence low on any details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Northwest flow remains in place through tonight into Saturday with another breezy day expected on Saturday. While some high to very high fire danger will be possible on Saturday, fuels are starting to green up and temperatures will be on the cooler aide, so critical conditions are not expected. Otherwise a chilly night is ahead as winds average 10-20 mph through the night and temperatures dip in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Temperature recovery on Saturday will provide a little relief from wind gusts around 35 mph. Also expecting quite a bit more sunshine, but by late afternoon peak mixing should allow for cumulus development and with a very small amount of instability at the top of the4 mixed layer a few sprinkles, but will not include this in the forecast as the amount of instability is very low.

A weak wave on the backside of the main trough will bring weak lift and saturation to parts of east central SD into southwest MN. A few very light rain or snow showers will be possible but impacts will be minor.

Sunday will continue to see cool northerly flow but decreased speeds. This will provide the area with a quiet and slightly less cool day, with temperatures clawing back to near normal.

Monday will rebound back to well above normal temperatures as fairly strong southerly flow brings back warmer air. Highs generally in the 70s.

A weak backdoor front settles in Tuesday, but temperatures will remain very mild with a very strong southerly surge expected Wednesday with temperatures expected to surge into the 70s and 80s. Sunday through Wednesday should be dry.

The is general agreement on trough over the Rockies late week but strength and placement of low pressure is very different amongst the many model runs. However, this will bring back the threat for showers and thunderstorms with coverage dependent upon placement of the upper level low pressure.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

MVFR ceilings will persist mainly east of I-29 into the afternoon, then VFR conditions area wide the remainder of the TAF period. Northwest winds will gust to 30-40 mph through the afternoon, 20 to 25 mph tonight and 25 to 35 mph on Saturday.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.