textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow chances increase through the afternoon and evening over parts of northwest Iowa and far northeast Nebraska. We'll generally see around 1-3" of snow from roughly along and southeast of a Sioux City to Storm Lake line, with a couple of spots possibly reaching 4 inches south of US Highway 20.

- The expected narrow band of heavier snow has shifted a bit farther north, with low to medium (20-40%) chances of it impacting our area especially south of Highway 20 during the evening commute. If it does lift far enough north, localized areas of 5-7" snow totals can't be ruled out.

- Colder temperatures will continue into the weekend and early next week. The coldest morning looks to be Monday where we look to see lows down into the single digits on either side of zero.

UPDATE

Issued at 1051 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Snow continues to fall along and south of highway-20 late this evening. Light snow is expected to continue to fall through the next few hours before ending around 3 am or so. 1 inch of snow has already been reported in Ida Grove. Thus final snowfall amounts of 1- 2 inches of snow is expected. Isolated pockets up to about 3 inches remains possible. For other locations, flurries will linger through the night as low level stratus persists. Very light snowfall amounts are possible though no appreciable impacts are expected. With a northwest, cold advective regime in place, have lowered low temperatures tonight to the single digits and teens. With persisting weakening winds, wind chills will get down to around -10F, making for a cold start to the morning. The rest of Friday through the weekend looks dry with temperatures remaining near seasonable with highs in the 20s and 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Radar around 1 pm today is picking up on a band of precipitation moving into the Highway-20 corridor. This activity is struggling to reach the ground as the temperature/dew point spread remains high near the surface. We should continue to see the low levels saturate as this precipitation falls and so snow will likely start reaching the ground over the next hour or two. The 12z suite of CAMs have come in with a slight northerly shift in where the axis of heavier snow ends up with this system, though most models still keep the 6+ inch of snow potential just south of the area. The HRRR and RAP continue to bring the heaviest snow the farthest north. With that, confidence has increased that snowfall totals will be a bit higher especially along and south of Highway-20, with at least around 2-4" of snow expected in those locations. The HRRR/RAP show around 6-9" of snow in these areas (especially into southern Ida County). 8 or 9" certainly can't be ruled out (<10% chance of occurring), but if we do end up see higher amounts, we'd be most likely to see totals of up to 5-7" (20-40% chance). This will be something to monitor closely through the remainder of the afternoon along with the potential to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for parts of the area if confidence increases in this band making it farther north. But as of now, the current Winter Weather Advisory through midnight remains in good shape. If this heavier band makes it into the area, the timing for this will be roughly 5 pm to 11 pm, and so it would cause travel impacts for this evening's commute. Be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast and your local road conditions! Keep in mind that here will be a sharp gradient of snowfall totals with northward extent especially as you start getting north of a Sioux City to Storm Lake line with this system.

As the snow exits off to the east tonight, can't rule out some light snow to flurries mainly along and east of I-29 into the mid- morning tomorrow. No impacts expected with this activity. A quiet and seasonably chilly day is expected tomorrow overall with highs expected to climb mainly into the 20s. Winds will gradually diminish through the day as the storm system responsible for the snow across the central Plains continues to move towards the eastern Great Lakes region. Temperatures Friday night look to drop into the single digits to low teens. An upper level low looks to move across the region Saturday into Saturday night, but ample dry air will be in place and so not expecting any snow with it at this time. So Saturday will be another quiet day as we start to see more spots reaching the lower to middle 30s especially in snow-free areas. This slight warm-up will be short-lived though as a 1045 mb high begins to move across the far northern Plains. This will lead to chillier temperatures on Sunday with highs back into the 20s for the most part. We'll see the greatest effects of this high pressure system Sunday night/Monday morning as this period looks to see the coldest temperatures of the next seven days, with lows down into the single digits above zero for the most part. The exception will be along the Highway-14 corridor where lows could drop down into the negative single digits. The good news is that winds look to be fairly light Monday morning, so not expecting wind chills to drop too much further than the actual air temperature.

We warm things up quickly through the day on Monday as the high drifts east and southerly flow returns. This will coincide with increasing warm air advection ahead of a cold front, especially impacting south-central South Dakota. This is where we could see highs climb near 40 degrees. This is also where we will see the strongest winds Monday, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. These breezy winds along with the potential for relative humidity values less than 30% in these areas may lead to elevated fire weather concerns, so that will be something to keep an eye on. Farther east will feel a little less effects from the WAA, but still looking seasonally normal with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s and winds gusting up to 15-20 mph. There is decent agreement amongst the NBM and other ensembles that we will see the return of above normal temperatures heading into the early to middle part of next week. This includes the potential for highs in the 50s and even some 60s on Tuesday and Thursday. These exact numbers will likely change as we get closer to next week, but if you're wishing for the return of spring-like temperatures next week, you may be in luck. Our next best chance of precipitation looks to be in the Tuesday night/Wednesday timeframe with guidance showing a quick moving system crossing the area. Uncertainty is high on precipitation types as this will depend on the timing of the system. If it's mainly overnight, then it may lean towards being more snow. But if it's more during the daytime, then it could lean towards rain. Either way, it's a quick moving system and major impacts look unlikely at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1051 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Low level stratus continues to blanket the majority of the area late this evening. The stratus is sitting at VFR/MVFR/IFR levels with ceilings also variable through the same flight categories. Flurries to perhaps very light snow is falling across the vast majority of the area. Accumulating light snow is present generally south of highway-20. This accumulating snow will come to an end through the overnight hours but flurries will persist for the rest of the night. The flurries should begin to end by tomorrow morning. The stratus will begin to push eastwards once low level flow takes on a more westerly component. This will leave VFR conditions for the bulk of the afternoon and evening hours along with weakening winds.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ022- 031-032. NE...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ014.