textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A bitterly cold start to today with wind chills 20 below to 35 below zero, but wind chill readings will rebound to above zero most areas this afternoon.

- Southwest winds increase this morning with gusts 25 to 40 MPH during the late morning and afternoon, strongest along/just east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota. Locations with a susceptible snowpack will see blowing/drifting snow with minor visibility reductions possible.

- Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal through the upcoming work week. Signs pointing to warmer temperatures next weekend.

- No major storm systems through the 7 day forecast. However, light snow chances are possible Thursday and next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

TODAY: Light winds/clear skies within a weak surface ridge have allowed early morning temperatures to fall into the upper single digits and teens below zero. At these temperatures, even the relatively light winds below 10 MPH result in wind chills 20 below to 34 below zero. As the ridge slides east, southwest winds will begin to increase slightly, but temperatures should begin to level off or slightly climb at the same time. This will maintain advisory-level wind chills across the forecast area through mid-morning, though locally stronger winds in the higher elevation areas of southwest Minnesota may push wind chills beyond 35 below at times through daybreak. The good news is the increasing winds will help us warm into the single digits and teens above zero by late morning-midday, on the way to highs from the teens in southwest Minnesota to a few degrees above freezing in south-central South Dakota. Morning wind chills will recover quickly as well, with readings peaking above zero for most areas this afternoon.

An additional concern with the increasing winds today will be a potential for patchy blowing/drifting snow, mainly for parts of the Coteau/I-29 corridor in east-central South Dakota, through southwest Minnesota into the Iowa Great Lakes. These areas are more likely to see gusts of 30-40 MPH from late morning through mid-afternoon, which could move around any loose snow cover. Area web cams do not show a deep snow-pack in these areas of stronger winds, so impacts are expected to be minor, but still something for travelers to watch out for. Winds should ease by later this afternoon as a cold front approaches and the surface gradient begins to slacken.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Our attempt to reach seasonal temperatures today will be short-lived, as temperatures return to several degrees below normal Tuesday through the end of the work week. A low level northwest to southeast thermal boundary lingers across the Dakotas/Nebraska through Wednesday and a subtle wave interacting with this boundary will bring some increase in mid-level clouds by Wednesday. Low level moisture looks limited, though, so most areas should remain dry through Wednesday.

A stronger wave rotating around a persistent upper low in eastern Canada will drop south through the Upper Midwest by Thursday. Models showing some increase in moisture as low as 850mb ahead of this feature, which could support some light snow chances mainly across the southwest half of the forecast area on Thursday. Ensembles indicate moderate (40-70%) chances for total QPF exceeding 0.01 inch Thursday-Thursday night in areas west of a Huron-Sioux City line (dusting to a few tenths of snowfall), but only low (10-20%) probability of snow amounts reaching an inch or more.

With low level temperatures remaining in the favored snow-growth temperature range into Friday, any moisture in this layer could result in lingering flurries, but potential for additional snow accumulation is low. High temperatures will be mainly in the teens to lower 20s with lows in the single digits above and below zero. This could push wind chills back toward advisory criteria (-25F) in some areas Friday morning.

NEXT WEEKEND: The deep northwest flow of arctic air looks to release by next weekend with a push of warmer air working across the Plains early next week. Could see a push toward seasonally normal temperatures by Saturday, with growing confidence that February will start off warmer with above normal temperatures becoming more prevalent early next week.

A stronger wave accompanying the warm front could bring a chance of light snow to the area at some point next weekend, though differences in timing/location keep NBM precipitation chances on the low side for now.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Increasing southwest winds will bring the primary aviation concern. Most areas will see gusts 20-25kt by 16Z-18Z, with higher gusts of 30-35+kt the higher elevations of southwest Minnesota. The gusts across the board will ease after 21-22Z as winds change to the west and northwest with a cool front. Modest gusts around 20kt will remain possible after sunset through the latter half of the TAF period, especially north of I-90.

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for SDZ038- 050-052>054-057>071. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for SDZ039- 040-055-056. MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ098. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MNZ071- 072-080-081-089-090-097. IA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NEZ013- 014.