textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries to light snow lingers this afternoon with minimal impact.

- Dangerously cold wind chills return Sunday night into Monday morning. Wind chills between -20 and -35 will be possible, coldest in Southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa.

- Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal through the upcoming work week. Signs pointing to warmer temperatures next weekend.

- No major storm systems through the upcoming 7 day forecast, through minor light snow chances are possible Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

THIS Afternoon: A cold front continues to slide southeast through the forecast area this afternoon. We continue to see stratus residing in the -20C thermal layer produce very fine ice crystals as it moves through. This trend will continue into the early evening as clouds move into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Wind gusts are beginning to increase to the 20-25 mph mark on the northwest side of this boundary which could lead to minor drifting snow where any light snow has fallen today.

TONIGHT: Skies clear this evening and winds remain light, allowing temperatures to quickly fall below zero. Have trended towards slightly colder guidance through midnight and then stabilized the temperature trends as surface winds begin to turn west southwesterly. Those surface winds will increase through daybreak and despite warm advection intensifying by daybreak, we'll still see wind chill values bottom out from -20 to -35F. The coldest readings will be confined to the higher elevation areas of the ridge. Considerable variability in wind chills is expected around 6-7am as winds will be transitioning from light to breezy.

MONDAY: Temperatures warm quickly through the morning thanks so those aforementioned southeasterly surface winds. High temperatures rise into the upper teens to 20s in most locations, with areas near Gregory climbing above freezing. One thing we'll need to keep a close eye on is the potential for gusty afternoon winds through the elevation areas of the Coteau. While the existing snowpack is several days old, recent cold dry air may have dried it out enough to lead to drifting snow over the roads. A secondary cold front drops southward Monday evening bringing a reinforcement of colder air into the region.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: A very quiet week is generally expected across the region as we remain under the influence of sharp northerly flow aloft. After highs cool back into the lower teens and 20s Tuesday, we'll see a compact area of vorticity move down the western flank of the upper trough on Wednesday. This energy tracking along the baroclinic zone through the Dakotas may lead to a very narrow band of light snow Wednesday into Thursday. There remains quite a bit of spread in ensembles in time and placement of this snow (impacting rather low NBM pops), so further refinement of the forecast will continue to narrow down the best timeframe. Any accumulations will be minimal and less than 1".

The mid-lvl pattern will begin to break down at the end of next week and continue to evolve through next weekend. This breakdown could lead to another light risk for snow on Friday into Saturday as a stronger trough rides a building Rockies ridge eastward. Again however, any snow accumulation continue to be on the light side. Ensembles have shown increasing stability in the idea that ridging will spread eastward across the CONUS next weekend. With probabilities of above freezing temperatures above 60% next weekend and nearly 100% for the following week, this boosts confidence in an early February thaw.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

A mix of VFR down to IFR across the region, with the lower ceilings in eastern South Dakota, southwestern Minnesota, and northwestern Iowa. Here flurries to light snow continue to fall, resulting in brief reductions in visibility. The flurries to light snow will continue to sink south-southeast over the next few hours before clearing the area. Very little accumulation or impacts are expected.

After the snow moves out skies will clear, VFR ceilings will prevail, and winds will become light and variable after midnight. Around daybreak winds will become southerly and begin to increase. Gusts between 20-25 kts are expected, with slightly higher gusts of up to 30 kts possible along the Buffalo Ridge. Winds decrease through the late afternoon, but continue to gust around 15 kts through the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for SDZ038-050-052>054-057>071. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for SDZ039-040- 055-056. MN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for MNZ098. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for MNZ071-072- 080-081-089-090-097. IA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for NEZ013-014.