textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries or light snow move through the area Sunday morning. Accumulations are expected to remain less than one half inch.

- Dangerously cold wind chills return Sunday night into Monday morning. Wind chills between -20 and -35 will be possible, coldest in Southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa.

- Temperatures rise slowly through the upcoming week, with no major storm systems on the horizon. However, light snow (less than 2") may be possible Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

This Afternoon: Clear skies continue across most of the region this afternoon as surface winds gradually turn to the southwest. These southerly winds will slowly bring warmer air northeast, but highs are still only expected to rise into the single digits to teens in south central South Dakota.

TONIGHT: Temperatures drop quickly after sunset, but will be tempered by increasing mid-lvl clouds and a persist southerly surface wind. As we approach daybreak, we'll watch for lower ceilings and a very low risk for light snow developing over central and northern South Dakota.

SUNDAY: The passage of a mid-lvl trough will bring the risk for flurries to very light snow Sunday morning through the CWA as a cold front slips southeast. Soundings indicate that any stratus that moves southeast on Sunday will reside within a -16 to -20C thermal layer, suggesting flurries will be possible nearly everywhere. Temperatures rise into the single digits in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT- MONDAY: Colder air rushes southeast into Monday morning, and while not nearly as cold as temperatures Friday morning, we'll still see lows in the single digits to teens below zero by daybreak. More concerning however will be the return of breezy to even gusty southwesterly surface winds after midnight continuing into daybreak Monday. While hourly temperatures may stabilize or begin to rise by daybreak the increasing winds may push wind chill values into advisory levels over the northeastern third of the CWA. The coldest values will be along the higher elevation areas of eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. Warm advection spreading eastward Monday will at least push high temperatures towards the teens and 20s in the afternoon.

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: Most of next week will be very quiet. The persistence of sharp northwest to northerly flow will continue the parade of cold fronts through mid-week. One passing wave on Wednesday may produce just enough lift for a narrow band of light snow during the day. NBM probabilities for >0.01" of QPF are quite low (25%) and spread over a large area. Ensemble probabilities such as the GEFS/ECE are higher (>50%), but also spread over a much larger area than what's likely to happen. This is most likely due to the uncertainty in location of the narrow band. No matter what, QPF will be very light and shouldn't result in highly impactful snow.

Additional snow chances may develop Thursday into Thursday night as the CWA remains in a favored area for light snow along the lingering baroclinic zone. Much like Wednesday, any amounts will be very light. Given the persistence of northerly mid-lvl flow, no strong warm up is expected into next weekend with high temperatures in the teens to 20s favored.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1040 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Light southeasterly winds will go light and variable tonight before turning northerly tomorrow morning. MVFR stratus will be pushing into the area from the northwest tomorrow morning as well. Flurries to perhaps very light snow is possible beneath the stratus which could lower ceilings down to IFR/LIFR levels. Chances for flurries will wane through the afternoon hours while winds turn more out of the northwest. The northwest winds will be weakening to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.