textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Roller coaster temperatures are expected for the week ahead with spotty chances for precipitation throughout mid-week. Better chances fall along the Missouri River Valley Monday and into northwest Iowa on Tuesday, both of which could be light snow or a rain/snow mix.

- Warmer days Wednesday and then Friday into the weekend. Will also be on the breezier side, resulting in areas of elevated fire danger. The weekend will see breezier conditions but also higher surface dew points.

- A potential pattern change late week into the weekend may bring better chances for precipitation to the area during this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A quick shot of mid level frontal forcing dives south through the Missouri River Valley later tonight into Monday morning. Fairly strong forcing within and just below the dgz as well as some very weak instability just above the front should allow for a band of rain and snow to develop. For now amounts look very light as the forcing moves through fairly quickly.

Monday should prove to be a chilly day with northerly flow and quite a bit of mid and high level cloudiness. Highs generally in the 30s closer to highway 14 with 40s near and south of I-90.

A weak wave will move through the area on Tuesday and bring a quick shot of scattered rain and snow showers. As the wave moves through mid level warm air advection increases, especially Tuesday afternoon and evening near and east of I-29. Given the strength of the warm advection and the weak elevated instability a few locations could see a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation. Will need to keep an eye on surface temperatures as parts of southwest MN could sneak into the lower 30s which might introduce a little light freezing rain. Overall in that Monday into Tuesday night time frame a quick inch or so of snow will be possible near KSUX into northeast NE.

Additional weak upper level support coupled with weak instability will bring another shot for precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday, with some chances lingering into Thursday. Temperatures will be seasonably mild with highs in the 60s on Wednesday and 50s on Thursday.

The focus continues to be Friday into the weekend as upper level flow turns more southwesterly allowing better low and mid level moisture to transport northward. This brings an increased chance for rain and possibly a few thunderstorms during this time. Will continue to see a 40 to 60 percent chance for precipitation during this time. Ensemble output still indicating quite a few members supporting a half an inch to an inch of rain over this time with the higher amounts and better probabilities for an inch or more across northwest IA.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A few showers are drifting into northwest Iowa to start the period. A 44 kt wind gust was reported just east of the area about an hour ago with these showers, so can't rule out a stronger wind gust or two locally over the next hour from KCKP to KSLB. Some MVFR stratus will wrap into southwest Minnesota and adjacent areas of eastern South Dakota and northwest Iowa tonight, but this is expected to stay just east of KFSD and KHON at this time, though trends will be monitored.

Another system will bring a chance of rain and snow showers mainly along the Missouri River Valley late tonight into tomorrow morning before tapering off into the afternoon. Winds will gradually diminish through the evening hours, remaining out of the northerly direction. Winds increase again into Monday, though it won't be as breezy as the past couple of days with north-northeasterly gusts of 15-20 kts Monday afternoon.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.