textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- The chilly conditions will continue through at least Saturday with highs mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s and overnight lows in the 20s.

- The drier conditions will persist into the new week

- Milder temperatures return by Monday and should persist for the rest of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Taking a look across the area, we're continuing to see areas of low stratus fill in this morning mainly west of I-29. Heading towards daybreak, a chillier start is in stored with most areas waking up to temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. With lingering cold air advection (CAA) in place aloft and light northerly to northeasterly surface winds, we won't get as much recovery as in recent days with highs likely peaking in the upper 30s to low 40s. With this in mind, make sure to keep that coat and hat handy! Otherwise, while confidence is low (<30%); can't completely rule out a wet snowflake or two east of I-29 as multiple ribbons of lift rotate through the area. The only question is if you can get enough moisture. Either way, most of this activity will be diurnally driven, so it should dissipate heading into the early evening. Lastly, expect the chillier conditions to persist through the weekend with daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and overnight lows in the 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

An elongated lobe of vorticity continues to push through the Northern Plains aloft, keeping the chance (~10%) for sprinkles going for the rest of the afternoon. No break in the chance for sprinkles through the evening and into the overnight hours as the low levels remain saturated, especially as more widespread low level stratus pushes into the area. Perhaps a few flurries are possible with the sprinkles as temperatures cool to near to just below freezing at the surface tonight.

Thursday will be the first noticeably cooler day with the post frontal airmass in place. Should see highs warm to the low 40s to low to mid 30s, if the low level stratus breaks up enough to allow for sufficient diurnal heating. If cloud cover prevails, highs could remain in the 30s. Surface ridging will be sliding into the area as well, keeping winds light, though just barely strong enough to result in wind chills down in the 30s to potentially upper 20s in a few locations during the daylight hours. Some sprinkles also remain possible beneath the stratus as well. With the ridge parked over the area, low temperatures look to fall to the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this season, with lows falling to the low to mid 20s. Some locations could see lows fall into the upper teens. With very light to nearly calm winds in place, little if any wind chill will be felt. Could see lows fall further but there remains uncertainty regarding cloud cover.

Friday will be another cooler day with near to below seasonable highs in the 30s and 40s. Breezy winds look to return to locations along and west of the James River as the previously mentioned surface ridge begins to slide eastwards, tightening low level pressure gradients. Low temperatures will remain in the 20s Friday night, but should be a little bit warmer than Thursday night's lows as winds turn to out of the southeast and remain elevated through the night.

Upper level ridging remains on track to push eastwards into the Plains for the weekend. This will begin a small warming trend with highs warming back into the 40s across the area. Temperatures will continue to warm through early next week with highs in the 40s and 50s for Monday and Tuesday. No rain is expected for any of these days.

Medium range guidance continues to show some variance regarding the upper level pattern for the middle of next week. There is some consensus that broad troughing from the western CONUS will push eastwards for this period of time. The ensembles not only support this troughing, but they show increased probabilities for light rain, up to a 20-50% chance for rainfall totals to exceed a hundredth of an inch. Their probabilities lower for rainfall amounts exceeding a tenth of an inch. Could still see these chances for rain persist into the end of next week, but details remain uncertain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 505 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions continue this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, an area of MVFR stratus continue sit across our River Valleys this morning. As this area of lower clouds pushes southwestwards through the morning hours, mostly VFR conditions should return. Otherwise, light northerly to northeasterly surface winds will continue to through this evening before decoupling occurs overnight.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.