textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of drizzle and light rain persist into the early overnight tonight. Generally, an additional 0.25" or less is expected, highest toward US Highway 14 and southwestern Minnesota. Rain/drizzle tapers off and ends before daybreak Thursday

- Breezy northwesterly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected through this afternoon. Winds decrease but remain breezy overnight with gusts of 15-25 mph.

- Dry conditions are expected Thursday through the weekend and into early next week.

- A hard freeze is expected on both Friday and Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The upper and surface low located over Minnesota and Wisconsin will continue to occlude while slowly moving east through the remainder of this afternoon and evening. To the northwest we see an upper ridge and surface high pressure building in. Much drier air through the mid-levels will work into the region, ending light rain/drizzle from northwest to southeast through the overnight. All precipitation should be ended/east of the region by daybreak Thursday. Overnight and through most of the day Thursday northwest winds remain breezy with widespread gusts of 15-25 mph. Occasional gusts up to around 30 mph are possible along the Buffalo Ridge. Mixy winds keep overnight lows a bit warmer than they would otherwise be. However, they are still expected to be colder than we've seen recently, in the low to mid 30s, warmest over northwest Iowa.

By late Thursday afternoon the upper ridge axis will cross through the region. Pressure gradients will relax and winds will taper off from the late afternoon and through the evening. Though dry air will be present in the mid-levels, a pesky thin layer of moisture just above the boundary layer will keep broken clouds in our forecast through the remainder of Thursday. This along with weak CAA will limit highs to the low to mid 40s. Overnight winds become light and variable while clouds slowly break up. Lows will drop into the mid 20s to low 30s by daybreak Friday. For many, this will be the first hard freeze of the season.

Friday clouds will finally break up and become mostly sunny in the afternoon. The previously mentioned surface high will continue to move east, turning light winds to the south. Highs for Friday will be seasonably cool in the 40s, with overnight lows falling to the mid 20s to low 30s. A series of upper waves will pass through the region Saturday into early next week. Mid-levels continue to be very dry, so not expecting precipitation with these. However, a few low- level clouds may be possible. Highs during this period will warm from the 50s Saturday, to low 60s Sunday, to mid 60s Monday. Lows will generally be in the 30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A mix of MVFR down to IFR ceilings will prevail for most of this period due to low stratus and light showers to drizzle. Ceilings may improve up to MVFR to possibly VFR for a brief period late this afternoon and evening as clouds begin to break up and showers start to taper off. Area most likely to see improvement is west of Highway 81. While true fog is not likely due to breezy winds overnight, the boundary layer is expected to cool to near the dewpoints. This could work to lower stratus again overnight.

Light rain showers to drizzle are expected to continue through this afternoon and evening. As the trough system moves to the east overnight, precipitation tapers off, ending a little before daybreak. Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the period. Winds are out of the northwest, gusting 20-30 kts. Overnight they will reduce down to gusts of 15-25 kts, with a few 30 kt gusts possible over the Buffalo Ridge. Winds will continue thusly through the remainder of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.