textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures will persist across the area over the next several day with most sites sitting between 10-20 degrees above normal. The warmest conditions will likely occur by Monday with moderate probabilities (40%-60%) of a few 60s along the Missouri River Valley.

- With well above normal temperatures ahead, a few new record highs could be set by Monday mainly at Sioux Falls, Sioux City, and Mitchell.

- While mostly quiet conditions are expected into the new week, a pattern shift during the early week could lead to light precipitation chances (20%-40%) returning between Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

TODAY & TONIGHT: A milder day ahead! Taking a look across the area, the stratus deck continues gradually progress out of our area early this morning with mainly portions of northwestern IA and southwestern MN continue to see the effects of the low hanging clouds. While a few light returns continue across northwestern IA, any developing flurries are having to fight through pockets of dry air according to soundings leading to limited accumulations. From here, we should see things clear out over the next couple hours leaving behind just upper-level cirrus. Otherwise, the focus will continue to be on the spring-like temperatures today as highs peaking mainly in the 40s to upper 50s. With NBM probabilities showing some lower chances (30%-40%) for a few 60s across southcentral SD, decided to keep trending highs towards the 75th percentile of guidance for today given the passing warm front and decreasing cloud cover. Lastly, the warmer conditions will continue overnight with lows mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

THE WEEKEND: Looking into the weekend, upper-level ridging over the western CONUS will gradually break down leading to a return to northwesterly flow aloft. A series of cold fronts between Friday morning and night will slightly affect temperatures over the course of the weekend. As a result, highs will take a temporarily dip into the 30s and 40s by Friday; but should gradually recover to the 40s and 50s by Sunday as additional ridging progresses through the region. While a few waves waves will also pass through the area with their associated surface fronts, limit moisture will likely keep any precipitation chances at bay through at least early next week. Lastly, a tightening SPG will lead to periodic breeziness on both Friday and Saturday with wind gusts between 25-35 mph possible each afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: Heading into the extended period, quasi-zonal flow will return aloft by Monday as upper-level ridging begins to flatten. Another warm day is in stored as southwesterly surface winds and lingering mid-level warm air advection (WAA) help boost highs into the 50s to mid 60s for the day. With the NBM probabilities continuing to show moderate probabilities (40%-60%) in exceeding the 58 degree mark, we could very well see a few new record highs at Sioux Falls (58|1977), Sioux City (62|1954), and Mitchell (58|1977). From here, a series of waves will progress through the region between Tuesday and Wednesday. While this could lead to the return of light precipitation chances (30%-40%), long-range guidance continues to diverge in terms of a solution. As a result, decided to leave the default NBM POPs in there for now. Nonetheless, with temperatures expected to sit in the 30s to 40s each day through Thursday, we'll have to watch for the potential of multiple p-types during this period. With this in mind, make sure to monitor your local forecast especially if you have any upcoming travel plans during this period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

This afternoon and evening will feature VFR conditions, but another layer of low stratus will move into the area late tonight/early tomorrow morning, starting along the Highway-14 corridor and spreading southward into the daylight hours. This will mean the return of MVFR conditions to the TAF sites into tomorrow morning. A few sprinkles/drizzle will be possible in spots with these clouds, but widespread issues are not expected with precipitation chances less than 15%.

Winds turn slightly more westerly into this evening before our next cold front arrives. This front will not only turn our winds to northwesterly again, but also bring an uptick in wind speeds. Gusts will be up to 28-33 kts for most spots from around midnight tonight through the mid-morning tomorrow, but locally higher gusts up to 40 kts cannot be ruled out over the higher elevations of southwest Minnesota into adjacent parts of northwest Iowa and into the Coteau des Prairies of east-central South Dakota. Lastly, LLWS will be a concern at each TAF site overnight and ending just before sunrise.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.