textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy northwesterly winds will return this afternoon with gusts between 30-40 mph expected.

- Continued dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. Additional concerns will be possible by Monday and again on Wednesday.

- Meaningful precipitation is not expected through Wednesday.

- Late week southwest flow aloft will bring back chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms but confidence low on any details.

UPDATE

Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Taking a look across the area, mostly clear conditions continue this morning with many areas sitting in the 20s to low 30s to start the day. Looking into the rest of the day, the forecast remains on track with the main focus being on the elevated fire concerns this afternoon. As temperatures eventually reach the upper 40s to mid 50s, dew points will gradually decrease into the lower double digits resulting in RH values in the 17-22 percent range. This combined with increasing northwesterly winds with gusts between 30-40 mph will lead to high fire danger area-wide. However, with the recent greenness of fuels; decided to forgo any fire headlines this go around since things aren't as crispy as they once were. Nonetheless, make sure to limit any activities that could create a spark as a fire could spread quickly give the conditions!

Looking ahead, could see a few sprinkles to flurries north of I-90 tonight as a weak clipper wave dives across the northern plains. However, with limited saturation according to soundings; any accumulations would be minimal. From here, heights will continue to build over the western CONUS setting up an omega blocking pattern from Sunday to Monday. Not expecting much on the precipitation front for most of the week. Nonetheless, drier conditions along with periodic breeziness will promote elevated fire concerns moving forward with the next days of interest being Monday and Wednesday. Lastly, we'll continue to trend warmer into the midweek with the warmest conditions expected by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Northwest flow remains in place through tonight into Saturday with another breezy day expected on Saturday. While some high to very high fire danger will be possible on Saturday, fuels are starting to green up and temperatures will be on the cooler aide, so critical conditions are not expected. Otherwise a chilly night is ahead as winds average 10-20 mph through the night and temperatures dip in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Temperature recovery on Saturday will provide a little relief from wind gusts around 35 mph. Also expecting quite a bit more sunshine, but by late afternoon peak mixing should allow for cumulus development and with a very small amount of instability at the top of the4 mixed layer a few sprinkles, but will not include this in the forecast as the amount of instability is very low.

A weak wave on the backside of the main trough will bring weak lift and saturation to parts of east central SD into southwest MN. A few very light rain or snow showers will be possible but impacts will be minor.

Sunday will continue to see cool northerly flow but decreased speeds. This will provide the area with a quiet and slightly less cool day, with temperatures clawing back to near normal.

Monday will rebound back to well above normal temperatures as fairly strong southerly flow brings back warmer air. Highs generally in the 70s.

A weak backdoor front settles in Tuesday, but temperatures will remain very mild with a very strong southerly surge expected Wednesday with temperatures expected to surge into the 70s and 80s. Sunday through Wednesday should be dry.

The is general agreement on trough over the Rockies late week but strength and placement of low pressure is very different amongst the many model runs. However, this will bring back the threat for showers and thunderstorms with coverage dependent upon placement of the upper level low pressure.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, mostly clear conditions continue this morning. Expect these conditions to persist for most of the TAF period. Otherwise, west-northwest winds will gradually increase into the afternoon with gust between 30-40 mph expected. Lastly, could see an area of sprinkles to flurries develop north of I-90 tonight with an approaching wave. While this developing activity should stay clear of most TAF sites, any accumulations would be minimal.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.