textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloud cover is expected to linger into Monday, but no precipitation is expected.

- Light snow will drift southward Monday evening and linger into Tuesday. Accumulations are expected to remain less than 1" most areas.

- Temperatures for the majority of the upcoming 7 day forecast will be above normal, with highs approaching 50 on Thursday. Considerable uncertainty in temperatures remains next weekend.

- At this point, no major storm systems in the upcoming 7 to 10 day forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

THIS Afternoon: Stratus continues to pour southward through the Plains on the backside of a departing upper trough moving through the western Great Lakes region. The warm downslope winds off the High Plains have pushed temperatures above freezing in most locations. Gusty winds this afternoon will continue to weaken into the evening.

TONIGHT: Stratus will persist through the night, though some breaks may develop over western Minnesota drift southward overnight. Should clouds linger, temperatures will struggle to cool through the 20s with the warmest lows likely along the James and Missouri River valley regions.

MONDAY: Mid-lvl heights rise early Monday ahead of another fast moving wave crossing the Northern Rockies Monday afternoon. Surface winds will remain southeasterly through most of Monday. The approaching wave will induce mid-lvl lift from north central South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota by the evening. Mid-lvl dry air will be a bit of a problem as this wave arrives, but we'll still still light snow develop and spread southward into the overnight hours. QPF will be very light, with the expectation that any snow that moves through will be a dusting to no more than 1".

TUESDAY: Behind this wave, slightly colder air will move into the Tri-State area from the northeast, pushing high temperatures into the 30s over SW Minnesota to the lower 30s along the Missouri River. Depending on where low-lvl moisture lingers Tuesday, we could see a few lingering flurries to very light snow showers, with the favored areas near the Missouri River.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Another very weak wave may move through the region Wednesday, bringing the risk for flurries to sprinkles at times. The story for the end of the week will be a sharp warmup Thursday as mid- lvl ridging moves eastward and strong low-lvl warm advection spreads eastward through the Plains. Breezy southwest to westerly surface flow develops Thursday, and minimal snow cover we should see highs climb well into the 40s to 50s. Ensemble probabilities of 50+ degree high temperatures are near 100% along and southwest of the James River valley. With this in mind, have bumped up NBM populated temperatures towards the 75th percentile. Friday will be another warm day, though a passing front early in the day will limit the climb to the lower 30s to lower 40s.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Quite a bit of uncertainty grows for next weekend. Not so much in the way of potential widespread precipitation (those risks remain low), but moreso in the temperatures. There remains quite a bit of difference in the EC/GFS deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the orientation of a lingering upper trough over the northeastern US and potential ridging that could move into the Central US. This is evident in the nearly 35-40 degree spread in high temperatures within the LREF, with a max in the upper 50s and the lowest high temperature in the teens. The GEFS seems to be on an island alone with most of the coldest members, with the ECE/GEPS all in the higher end of the spread. The deterministic NBM splits the difference with mean temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

MVFR stratus will prevail for the first half of this period due to a layer of stratus. Winds are light and variable. Guidance has continued to indicated that patchy fog may be possible near day break. If fog develops it will be scattered and patchy in nature, so have included TEMPO groups to cover it.

Near the end of the period a wave will move through the region from the northwest to the southeast, producing light snow. As snow showers move in ceilings and visibilities will fall to low MVFR to IFR.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.