textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries to patchy light snow will continue through late morning mainly across portions of southcentral SD with minimal accumulations.

- Cold wind chill values in the -15 to -25 degree range are expected this morning and Saturday morning with coldest conditions north of I-90.

- Additional chances (60%-90%) for light snow are expected from Saturday into Sunday with accumulations of an inch or less expected. With breezier conditions possible at times, patchy blowing snow and temporary reductions in visibility are expected especially north of I-90.

- A brief transition to freezing rain by late Saturday could lead to a few patchy slick spots mainly along and west of the James River Valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

TODAY & TONIGHT: A much cooler day ahead! Taking a look across the area, cloud cover continues to fill in this morning with pockets of flurries to light snow across portions of southcentral SD. While accumulations are expected to be light, this developing precipitation will likely hang around through at least late-morning given the increasing frontal forcing and dPVA with an approaching shortwave. Can't completely rule out a stray flurry or two across most areas this morning as this fairly the previously mentioned wave swings through. Nonetheless, it would be a very narrow chance if any for accumulations. From here, cold air advection (CAA) and increasing northeasterly surface winds will keep temperatures on the colder side for the day with highs mainly in the single digits to low double digits. With this in mind, wind chill values in the -15 to -25 degree range this morning will gradually improve into the afternoon. However, as temperatures drop into the negative single digits tonight, expect similar wind chills into Saturday morning with values in the -15 to -25 degree range. If you have any early morning plans, make sure to dress in layers and limit outdoor time!

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Looking into Saturday, the first half of the day will start off quiet as surface to mid-level ridging continues to slide through the area. However, things will quickly change by early afternoon as another clipper wave dives southeastwards across the northern plains bringing additional chances (60%-90%) for light snow. While the chances will likely be area-wide, the main driver of accumulations will be with a developing north to south deformation band that sets up along/ahead of the approaching warm front. While most short-range guidance agrees with my initial assessment, there is still some uncertainty on if the band can hold itself together long enough as it progresses through our area which has led to some slight variations in overall amounts. Nonetheless, most guidance continues to show accumulations roughly around an inch or less for most areas with the potential for pockets of 2 inches west of I-29.

With overall amounts being so light, any potential impacts will be isolated to when the snow is falling which means temporary reductions in visibility are expected. As southerly surface winds increase, can't rule out a few areas of patchy blowing snow mainly north of I-90. Lastly, could see a brief transition to freezing rain on the trailing edge of the precipitation shield mainly west of the James River Valley. With a light glaze of ice possible, make sure to drive with cautious as patchy slick spots will be possible. From here, most short range guidance has any lingering activity progressing out of the area by late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Looking into Sunday, can't completely rule out a brief transition to drizzle/freezing drizzle early given the lingering boundary level saturation depicted in soundings. However, as drier air continues to fill the column should see quieter conditions return by the afternoon. Lastly, increasing warm air advection (WAA) will help boost temperatures towards our seasonal normals heading into the new week with highs mainly in the 20s to upper 30s.

MONDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to usher in a series of waves through Thursday. However, most of the waves currently either look moisture starved or have their better dynamics offset from our area. Otherwise, daily highs will continue to hover in the 20s to 30s closer to our seasonal values.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1038 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Mid level clouds cover parts of the area with one or two sites showing ceilings down to MVFR levels. Light snow remains on track to slide southwards through central and south central South Dakota overnight. This light snow is expected to stay away from all TAF sites. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will accompany the light snow. Confidence has increased in MVFR ceilings overspreading the area as current satellite shows a line of MVFR stratus just beginning to push into the area from the northeast. Think this MVFR stratus will continue to push through the area through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning before dissipating by the afternoon timeframe. A stray flurry is possible beneath the stratus. Otherwise, mainly clear skies and light to marginally breezy northerly winds will finish out the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.