textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix will impact areas south of I-90 in South Dakota and into northeast Nebraska Friday, with lower chances in northwest Iowa afternoon. Light snow/sleet will be most likely, but south central South Dakota (Gregory/Charles Mix Counties) could see a light glaze of light freezing rain.

- Stratus and seasonably cool temperatures persist into Friday, then temperatures trend above normal heading into next week.

- Next week could bring a couple of light precipitation chances to parts of the region Tuesday and/or Thursday, but at this time the potential for significant precipitation is low (<20%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT: Once again weak flow beneath a warm layer aloft is leading to stubborn stratus which appears as though it will be hard to shake over the next 24-36 hours. This will lead to low diurnal temperature ranges, with a relatively mild night but chillier than normal day on Friday. Main concern for Friday will be a quick moving wave sliding southeast through Nebraska. Still a little uncertainty regarding moisture availability, but high-res models show fair agreement in spreading a light wintry mix into southern portions of our forecast area with this wave. The warm but relatively dry layer aloft could initially lead to light freezing rain for south central South Dakota, but as this layer cools, we should see precip transition to sleet and light snow rather quickly. Any accumulations of ice/snow are expected to remain light, with only 10-20% probability that snow amounts top 1 inch toward the Missouri River.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: This weekend into early next week will be dominated by relatively quiet westerly flow with warmer than normal 850mb temperatures. Lower level flow remains weak into Saturday so may have to watch for persistence of stratus which could limit the start of our warming temperatures. Begin to see stronger southerly flow develop by Sunday which should help push temperatures a little higher as we begin the first full week of 2026. A weak wave slides across the Dakotas/Minnesota Tuesday, and this could bring very light precipitation to the northern parts of our forecast area. Uncertainty in the track of this wave precludes making adjustments to NBM pops at this time.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD: High confidence that temperatures will remain above normal through the latter portion of the forecast period. Much lower confidence in precipitation chances, as models begin to diverge further from Thursday into next weekend. While a few solutions in the broader ensemble spectrum indicate a potential for heavier precipitation somewhere in the Upper Midwest, there is very little agreement regarding when or where. That said, if you have travel plans late next week into next weekend, you may want to monitor forecast trends through the coming week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Low level stratus blankets the entire area early this evening. Ceilings range between MVFR/IFR/LIFR levels while visibilities span between VFR/MVFR/IFR thresholds. Visibilities were initially lowest around KFSD but have been seeing improvement as winds turn out of the northwest. Light snow to light freezing drizzle is also present around KFSD but should also come to an end as visibilities improve. The stratus is here to stay though and will persist through the night. Some uncertainty remains regarding the stratus's extend for tomorrow. Have gone pessimistic and kept IFR/LIFR ceilings in all TAFs for the entire period. Winds will turn out of the southeast by tomorrow morning and remain there for the rest of the period. Light snow looks to move into the Missouri River Valley during the late morning and afternoon hours tomorrow. The light snow looks to push into KSUX to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.