textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy blowing and falling snow may reduce visibilities through the early evening hours, so use extra caution on the roads during the evening commute.

- Another round of snow moves in late tonight and continues into tomorrow morning. 2-4" of snow is expected mainly near and south of I-90, with a low-to-medium chance (20-50%) of a few spots seeing greater than 4 inches of snow.

- An influx of arctic air over the weekend will lead to cold temperatures and even colder winds chills especially by Sunday morning. Wind chill values as low as -30 degrees are expected.

- Quieter conditions return by next week with a shift towards milder temperatures by midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

It's been a cold and breezy day on our Friday as temperatures have fallen throughout the day. We are currently sitting in the single digits to low 10s above zero, but wind chills are below zero for most of the area. Winds have been able to blow the fresh snow pack around, and additional light snow has reduced visibilities from time to time today. This will continue for the next few hours, so continue to use extra caution on the roads. Falling snow and winds will diminish this evening, but the break from falling snow will be short-lived as our next winter system is set to move in around midnight tonight, which we'll discuss below.

After some lingering light snow this evening over south-central South Dakota, a new band of snow will develop and move into our area west of the James River around midnight and quickly expand southeastward. The band of snow will intensify a bit around daybreak and then exit off to our south and east around noon. So a quick-moving system, but will have rates up to 0.75" an hour leading to a stripe of 2-4" of snow across parts of the area when all said and done. The favored areas for this stripe for these amounts will be near and south of I-90. Can't rule out an even narrower band of 4-6" somewhere within the general 2-4", but guidance today has become less excited on the potential for 4+ inches. Currently, the chance of at least 4 inches of snow or greater is around 20-50%, with the chance of at least 6 inches now less than 20%. The chance of 1" per hour snowfall rates have also come down a bit according to the 12z HREF compared to the run last night. For areas north of I-90, amounts look to drop of quickly from south to north, but overall the current Winter Weather Advisory remains in good shape.

Attention then turns to the colder weather that will move in after the snow. Wind chills are set to drop to as low as 30 degrees below zero Saturday night into Sunday morning, and for that reason, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all of southwest Minnesota, most of northwest Iowa, and a large part of east-central South Dakota. Winds will be fairly light Saturday night, but with air temperatures dropping to the teens below zero within the Cold Weather Advisory, any light wind will result in these dangerously cold wind chills through much of Sunday morning. From here, temperatures will warm-up fairly quickly, with highs by Sunday afternoon in the teens and 20s above zero. After another cold night Sunday night, temperatures warm-up further into Monday as highs then look to climb near the freezing mark.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days next week, with highs in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures will be knocked back down a peg Wednesday night into Thursday, but it won't get nearly as cold as what we'll see this weekend. In fact, temperatures will be overall seasonal to close out the next work week. A quieter pattern also sets up, with only small rain chances north of I-90 late Wednesday into early Thursday at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

A mix of lower VFR and MVFR stratus this evening, with some MVFR/IFR visibilities due to falling and blowing snow. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots taper down through the evening and into tonight. Evening round of snow should remain largely focused along and south of the MO River Valley near and after 13.00z.

Next round of snow pushes in from the west late this evening and into tonight, overspreading most of the area by 13.09z. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility through much of the period. Snow accumulations of 2-4" are expected. Snow tapers off from northwest to southeast through the late morning and early afternoon Saturday. Conditions may return to lower end VFR by the end of the period, but with more guidance holding onto stratus, have maintained a bit more pessimistic timeline in clearing.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Saturday for SDZ038-050-052>054-057>071. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday for SDZ038>040-053>056-059>062-065>067. MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Saturday for IAZ001-012-013-020>022-031-032. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday for IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022-032. NE...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Saturday for NEZ013-014.