textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain below normal through Saturday. Temperatures moderate to near and above normal Sunday into early next week.

- Patchy light snow is possible tonight into Friday morning, with the better chances west of the James River Valley. Accumulations less than an inch are expected.

- Wind chill values about -15 to -25 expected Friday morning, coldest north of I-90.

- Additional light snow chances continue this weekend, with the better chances late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, earliest central SD, latest sw MN and nw IA. For now, an inch or maybe two is possible. Most locations will see less.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Light snow potential continues in central SD tonight into Friday morning. Forcing remains weak but with some lingering moisture and a deep dgz, surface to about 700mb, a few tenths of an inch of snow will be possible.

Otherwise cold air settles south tonight which will result in wind chill values of -15 to -25 in most locations. For now an advisory does not appear to be needed, plus winds will generally be less than 10 mph which will help a bit.

A quick moving system will move into the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The latest EC Ensemble, Canadian Ensemble and GEFS continue to point towards most locations seeing a tenth of an inch or less liquid, so still anticipate most locations at 2" or less. The Canadian and EC are a bit higher on amounts. Will have to watch trends as the models are becoming more aggressive in dropping a moderately strong, compact wave with a bit of weak instability into central SD then NE from late afternoon into the evening. This could result in some locally higher amounts as well as the potential for a little mixed precipitation. Confidence on this is pretty low as the strength and location are not overly well agreed upon. Otherwise, still anticipate a band of light snow to move from west to east during the evening and nighttime hours with generally an inch or less of accumulation. Some of the ensemble members pushing closer to 0.15" of liquid which might mean 2-3", but if this does happen no great consensus on where.

Once this wave passes, milder air will spread across the area on gusty northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph. Highs on Sunday will be back above normal with most locations topping out in the 30s. Some lingering rain or snow showers will be possible, better chance near and east of I-29.

The system expected Monday night into Tuesday continues to be only marginally well agreed upon but will be our next chance for snow after this weekend. Will only have low to mid range chances due to the lower confidence.

Once this wave passes an upper level ridge is expected to build over the Rockies. Just where this ridge sets up and how sharp it is will play a large role in temperatures mid to late week next week. If the ridge is sharp and farther west, we will be in strong northerly flow aloft which would result in cooler temperatures. If this ridge can flatten a bit it would promote a more mild westerly flow with temperatures above normal. We will wait and see as model consensus is not there.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Mid level clouds cover part of the area with one or two sites showing ceilings down to MVFR levels. Light snow will slide southwards through central and south central South Dakota tonight. This light snow should stay away from all TAF sites. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will accompany the light snow. Some models suggest that MVFR ceilings could spread eastwards and cover all TAF sites. However, confidence is too low to include in a TAF. Any chance for light snow will come to an end tomorrow morning. This will leave marginally breezy northerly winds to finish out the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.