textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures will persist into at least mid week with most locations 15-25 degrees above normal.

- Monday will be the warmest day ahead, with moderate to high chances (50%-80%) of highs topping 60 degrees along much of the Missouri River Valley. A few record highs could be tied or broken. Low afternoon humidity levels in these very warm areas may again result in elevated fire danger.

- Mostly quiet conditions will prevail into early next week. However, a pattern shift will bring light rain/snow chances by Wednesday-Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Weak upper level support passes through the area today into Sunday morning. Overall not much expected from this other than some mid and high clouds. Southerly flow will remain in place into the evening and then become northwest, but speeds will remain on the lower side. This will allow for very mild low temperatures in the 20s, about 10- 15 degrees above normal. A very small chance for patchy fog in central SD late tonight and early Sunday morning.

Light westerly flow and increased low level temperatures will lead to a very mild Sunday with temperatures topping out in the 40s east of I-29 and the 50s near and west. Fire weather concerns will be on the lower side with the light winds and a cold ground.

All information continues to point towards Monday bring the warmest of the days upcoming. With a decent mid level wave moving through there will be some question marks however. The first will be how dense the mid and upper level cloud cover will be and the second will be how quickly the cold front will drop south. As for cloud cover, the upper level clouds should be fairly extensive and will limit warming a bit, but strong mechanical mixing will likely overcome most of the negative effects of the cloud cover. As for the front, the latest models are a touch faster with the front and the warmer readings of 60 or greater appear as though they will be mainly confined to areas closer to the Missouri River and nearby locations in northwest IA.

Behind the front Tuesday should be mild and dry, possibly a touch breezy in the morning.

The next wave of interest will come Wednesday into Thursday. The bulk of the forcing from this wave will come through on Wednesday evening and overnight. For now looking like a rain or snow threat with the lowest couple hundred feet determining the type.

While cold air is not expected behind this wave, a cooler regime will settle in, but temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year. Overall the models are in marginal agreement for Thursday into Saturday, all trying to carve out a trough in the western U.S. Some disagreement with differences in the northern stream energy and the southern stream energy, so will need to see how this pattern change evolves and how the models handle it before any confidence in expected weather. For example the 12z GFS has a negatively tilted trough moving into the Northern Plains while the 12z ECMWF has westerly flow aloft. The main story will be continued above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1056 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Mainly VFR through the period. There will be some MFR ceilings possible in central SD towards KHON later tonight into Sunday morning. Currently looking at about a 50-70% chance for these MVFR conditions. Otherwise we will see southerly winds gust to 25 to 35 mph through the afternoon, then decrease around sunset and turn more westerly through the night.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.