textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Blizzard warning now in effect for parts of southwest MN and northwest IA through tonight.

- Northwesterly winds continue to strengthen early this morning and will persist into Sunday night. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph are likely during this time with isolated gusts up to 55 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire area through this evening.

- Snow continues to expand this morning. Amounts have trended upwards a bit across southwest Minnesota with totals of 1-3 inches expected with isolated higher amounts up to about 5 inches possible in this same area. The strong winds with the falling snow will lead to some blowing snow across the area. Reduced visibility within the snow and blowing snow may create hazardous travel conditions. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the vast majority of the area through this evening and night.

- Much colder air will accompany these strong winds, leading to wind chill values of 10 below to 20 below zero, especially tonight into Monday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 1057 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Went ahead and issued a blizzard warning for parts of southwest MN and northwest IA where the higher snow amounts have been. In Sioux Falls we have had about 1-1.5 inches of snow and the falling snow has ended but visibilities remain 1 to 2 miles. Over the deeper snowpack in southwest MN and northwest IA these visibilities in the strong wind and blowing snow will remain fairly low. While there may be a brief improvement this afternoon, wrap around snow and a slight increase in winds this evening will likely drive additional blizzard conditions. Additional snow amounts will be on the lighter side after this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 406 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Fog persist mainly along and east of I-29 early this morning. With the front pushing through and associated precipitation, have begun to remove counties along I-29 and just east of I-29, mainly in southwest Minnesota. Will let the rest of the Advisory rise until 6 am. While this will be the last time we see fog, attention quickly turns to precipitation moving through the area this morning. The forecast remains on track with precipitation beginning on the front end as a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow before quickly transitioning to all snow thermal profiles cool. Winds are also coming up as well with a few sites already seeing 40 mph gusts. At the same time, radar shows a band of mainly snow oriented along and southwest of a Marshall, MN to Sioux Falls, South Dakota to Yankton, South Dakota line. Expect to see this band further blossom on radar over the next few hours as it pushes eastwards. This band remains on track to push through the area through the rest of the morning hours. The highest snowfall rates will come during this period of time with rates up to about a half an inch an hour expected. The falling snow and strong winds will make for reduced visibilities down to about about a half a mile while snow is falling. Rates will be coming down through the second half of the morning as the best forcing for ascent will be east of the area. Lighter snowfall will persist though on decline as well through the rest of the morning and early afternoon hours.

While snow will end for most by about noon to a little after noon, some light snow looks to persist across parts of southwest Minnesota through the rest of the afternoon timeframe. A non-diurnal trend in temperatures is expected today with temperatures largely falling throughout the day today. This will result in high temperatures occurring this morning before falling throughout the day. Have highs in the teens to up to about freezing from west to east but again, these temperatures will be occurring in the morning. Come the afternoon timeframe, temperatures will be in the teens and low 20s before cooling to largely the single digits by the evening. Winds will remain strong throughout the day with gusts up to 40-50 mph. Isolated higher gusts up to about 55 mph is also expected. While patchy to areas of blowing snow is expected for the afternoon hours, mainly across southwest Minnesota, another round of light snow will be wrapped back into the area this evening and night. This round of snow will still generally be focused across southwest Minnesota and into adjacent areas of southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. With the upper low just pushing southeast of the forecast area, warm air advection (WAA) will actually strengthen behind the departing low. This WAA will warm thermal profiles back to the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) while keeping them saturated. However, the WAA will be the only forcing mechanism driving this second round of snow. While snow ratios typically will be on the higher side with such cold temperatures in place, do think that ratios will be taken down a bit as the strong winds fracture the falling snow flakes. This will however, result in another round of blowing snow since winds will remain strong through the night. Think that visibilities will get down to about a half a mile at the worst during this period of time which, will have some impacts on travel. Light snowfall is also expected for this timeframe as well before any chance for precipitation will come to an end during the very early morning hours on Monday. Total snowfall amounts have trended upwards a bit, now up to about 2-4 inches in southwest Minnesota with isolated higher amounts up to about 5 inches possible. Most other locations will see between 1-2 inches of snow east of the James River. Areas along and west of the James will see lower snowfall totals generally near and below an inch. A light glaze of ice is also possible due to the font end mixed precipitation. For headlines, have left headlines in effect, except for the Dense Fog Advisory. Given the latest data, think a Wind Advisory and Winter Weather Advisory are appropriate. Have kept headlines clearing form west to east beginning at 9 pm this evening before all headlines expire by 6 am Monday morning.

While snow and associated wind and winter headlines will be expiring by Monday morning, the cold temperatures will result in lows falling to the single digits. Wind stronger winds persisting through the night, wind chills are expected to fall -10F to -20F, coldest across southwest Minnesota and adjacent areas of southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa.

Monday will be a cold day as high temperatures barely rebound to the teens to low 20s across south central South Dakota. Winds will be weakening throughout the day as the surface pressure gradient loosens as the Sunday system continues to push off to the east. Some patchy blowing snow remains possible across the area while winds remain elevated.

WAA returns aloft for Tuesday, pushing high temperatures back to the 30s to low 40s. These warmer temperatures will be short lived though as a weaker cold front advances through the Northern Plains Tuesday night. This will push high temperatures back to near seasonable for the rest of the week in the 20s to 30s each day. A few spots in south central South Dakota may see highs reach up to about 40F. Lows will also be near seasonable down to the single digits, teens, and 20s. A weak wave could bring the chance for snow but details are too uncertain this far out, That said, the forecast will be mostly dry for the upcoming week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Areas near and east of Interstate 29 will continue to see MVFR and IFR conditions in snow and blowing snow through tonight. Occasional LIFR conditions in blowing snow are also expected to be more persistent across parts of southwest MN and northwest IA. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will continue to be likely through the night as well. West of I-29 northwest winds will gust to 45 to 55 mph through tonight as well, but the blowing and drifting snow will be much more limited. Some wrap around snow and blowing snow will be possible north of I-90 later this evening and early overnight. Improvements will be seen across the entire area late tonight through Monday morning.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for SDZ040-055- 056-061-062-066-067-069>071. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ040-055-056- 061-062-066-067-069>071. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for SDZ038-039-050- 052>054-057>060-063>065-068. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for SDZ039- 054. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for MNZ098. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098. Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for MNZ071-072-080-081- 089-090-097. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for IAZ001-012- 020>022-031-032. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for IAZ002-003-013-014. NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for NEZ013-014. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ013-014.