textproduct: Sioux Falls

UPDATE

Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A challenging fire weather forecast today with abundant greenness in most locations. However with relative humidities dropping to 15 to 25 percent in most locations, wind gusts around 35 mph possible and highs in the 70s some localized elevated to near critical conditions will be possible. The main areas susceptible will be the warm season grasses that are still lagging a bit in terms of greening up. These fuels generally need some warmer temperatures to start greening up. So the main takeaway is to avoid burning in areas that remain fairly cured.

Very weak instability is expected late this afternoon into the evening which could result in isolated showers, mainly across northwest IA and far southeast SD and nearby locations. Severe weather is not expected but wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible. Confidence in development is low.

A bit cooler air settles into the area for the weekend with highs in the 60s. Locations mainly north of I-90 will see lows fall into the lower to mid 30s Sunday and Monday mornings.

After this above normal temperatures are expected Monday through Friday next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: A beautiful May afternoon across the region with light winds, plenty of sunshine, and temperatures rising into the middle and upper 60s. Relative humidity values will fall near 20% in quite a few areas, but lighter winds prevent any fire danger.

TONIGHT: Skies clear and temperatures fall early this evening, but a trough passing through the western Dakotas and Nebraska will spread mid-upr cloud cover through the Tri-State area overnight. A sprinkle or two could be possible along, but mostly south of the Missouri River. Clouds should temper the falling temperatures after midnight, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

FRIDAY: A weak frontal boundary passes through the CWA late morning on Friday, pushing a favorable warmer westerly wind through the area. Deep mixing in the afternoon AOA 8000 ft AGL will promote both temperatures rising into the lower to middle 70s, but also a drop in afternoon dew points. Wind gust may approach the 20 to 25 knot range with RH near 25% again, but given relative greenness, fire danger risks remain low.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Really no changes or adjustments needed for the weekend forecast. The likely scenario is a front passes from north to south by mid-morning Saturday, turning winds to the northwest and slowing the upward rise in afternoon temperatures. A few passing showers/sprinkles may move through at the same time. A secondary cold front moves southeast again early on Sunday, with no impacts, other than holding high temperatures into the middle and upper 60s.

NEXT WEEK: A fairly quiet week is ahead, with rising temperatures and a couple rain chances sprinkled in. The broad theme of the week is a slowly expanding mid-lvl ridge eastward through the Central US. Most of Monday is expected to be warmer but rather windy due to an increasing surface pressure gradient. The arrival of a fairly fast moving shortwave over top the building ridge will push a front into the region Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture continues to be limited with this system moving through, which should keep any meaningful (>0.10") probabilities of rain focused east of I-29.

Perhaps a very subtle cooldown on Tuesday with a definite shift in histogram data indicating higher probabilities for temperatures in the 65-70 range than 70+. Those probabilities begin to shift warmer by the middle and especially end of next week as we'll begin to see highs climb into the middle and upper 70s, with 20-30% probabilities for highs above 80 moving northward into next weekend.

The second risk for rain next week arrives in the Thursday timeframe, though a great deal of uncertainty remains with this precipitation chance. Nevertheless, here's a little climate tidbit for the day. The first 7 days of May will be the driest on record for the majority of the climate sites in the CWA. After a dry weekend, by the end of Monday, precipitation in most areas may be 1 to 1.5" below normal for the month.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions will continue across the area this TAF period. Besides some upper-level cirrus overnight, quieter conditions will persist. Otherwise, light and variable winds tonight will become more northwesterly by Friday morning and increase into the afternoon with 25-35 mph gusts expected to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.