textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record heat possible today for some locations with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- Fire Weather remains the primary concern over the next several days with very dry fuels, warm and breezy conditions, and little to no precipitation. Elevated to critical conditions will be present Thursday onward.

- Aside from a low chance (<20%) of sprinkles with the passage of a cold front Thursday, dry conditions are expected through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Mid-level moisture transport will keep skies partly cloudy today. Winds will be light and variable around 5-10 mph today. The exception will be over south central South Dakota where slightly stronger winds will be present, around 10 mph with gusts 15-20 mph. Temperatures will be well above average today with WAA ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. Highs today will climb to the mid to upper 70s with a few 80s possible along the southern Missouri River Valley. A few record highs are at risk of being tied or broken today, so stay tuned for updates! In additions to the warm temperatures, reports from around the CWA inform us about the exceedingly dry conditions. There have been several fires noted on satellite, some are prescribed burns but others have been accidental. The dry conditions and risk for fire danger are not expected to decrease in the coming days. More on that in the Fire Discussion section below.

Wednesday night will be mild with lows in the 40s for most of the region, and low 50s for northwest Iowa. Late Wednesday a mid-level wave approaches from the north-northwest. As it does so the SPG will tighten in response to strong CAA behind the cold front. This will result in rapidly strengthening winds. The timing of the front has come into better agreement in the short term guidance. The front should enter the Highway 14 corridor around or shortly after midnight, be near the I-90 corridor a few hours later, and the Highway 20 corridor near or around daybreak. As the front passes there is low probability (<20%) for light sprinkles to occur. Soundings indicate very dry air beneath the cloud layer. However, there is weak instability present that may be enough for a few sprinkles to make it to the surface. Any accumulation will be minimal.

As mentioned, winds will increase and become northeast at 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. A few gusts could reach as high as 40 mph. Winds will remain strong through the afternoon before slowly subsiding through the evening. Some of the short term guidance is just beginning to pick up on a secondary front and push of CAA that may result in gusty winds again overnight Thursday into Friday morning. The mid-range guidance has not yet picked up on this trend. After collaboration with neighbors the uncertainty is too high, and have left NBM winds as they are from midnight Friday onward.

Highs for Thursday will be cooler thanks to the northerly winds, climbing to the upper 40s to low 50s north of I-90, and mid 50s to 60s to the south. Lows will be in the 20s. Cooler temperatures continue for Friday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. An upper ridge builds in for the weekend and first part of next week. Occasionally breezy south to southwest winds at the surface keeps warm air flowing into the region, warming our highs into the 50s and 60s Saturday, the 70s Sunday, and 60s and 70s Monday. Dry conditions are expected during this time, with the next chance for meaningful precipitation arriving the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this period with few to scattered mid-level to high clouds. Winds are light and variable, expected to become northwest around 5-10 kts this afternoon. Areas of south central South Dakota may see afternoon gusts of 15-20 kts, the rest of the region gusts should remain 15 kts or less. Winds become light again after sunset and turn to the east ahead of an approaching cold front.

After midnight a strong cold front is expected to move through the area from the northwest to the southeast. Behind the front winds will increase to 19-22 kts out of the north with gusts 30-35 kts. Highest gusts expected east of I-29 in the late morning to early afternoon. There is a possibility of directional shear along with the frontal passage, but confidence was not high enough to include at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Warm, very dry, and windy conditions will keep the focus for the next 5 days on fire risk. This afternoon relative humidity is expected to fall below 25% for most of southeast South Dakota and portions of southwest Minnesota. Northwest Iowa is only slightly better at around 30%. The light winds today have staved off the need for a Fire Headline, but that may not be the case in the upcoming days.

Thursday relative humidity recovers to 40% or higher, however the very strong winds that are expected have resulted in Very High Grassland Fire Danger for the entire CWA. Wind gusts increase to 30- 35 mph by daybreak Thursday morning and continue through the afternoon. Wind decrease in the evening but remain on the breezy side overnight with gusts 15-20 mph. Short term guidance has picked up on a secondary front and push of CAA that may result in another round of strong winds Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Along with winds, dew points will fall to the teens. Though highs are cooler in the 50s, relative humidity values will fall to 30% or less for most of the region, less than 25% for areas south of a rough line from Huron to Ida Grove. Elevated to near critical fire conditions are expected once again.

This weekend will also be breezy, with the strongest winds expected Saturday. Dew points will fall to the teens to possibly single digits. Relative humidity is likely to fall to less than 25% for the entire region. Grassland Fire Danger will be Very High to Extreme. Sunday dewpoints recover somewhat for areas east of the James River Valley, but teeter on critical once again.

No meaningful precipitation is expected during this period. There is a chance for the middle of next week, but confidence at this time is low.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.