textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers develop and winds gusts increase after midnight tonight through Friday. While snow amounts alone would produce only minor impacts to travel, strong winds in excess of 45-55 MPH with any falling snow will significantly reduce visibility to as low as 1/2 mile at times.

- Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with wind chills dropping to the teens and 20s below zero by Saturday morning.

- Additional snow chances and strong winds return on Sunday, with moderate to high (40-70%) chances of wind gusts over 45 mph mainly west of the James River.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A cold front continues to push across the area this afternoon, with strong cold air advection trailing behind it. An upper-wave also moves through this evening, and this will help set off some scattered showers. At first these showers will have some dry air to deal with, but we'll eventually see the column saturate enough and even some instability to allow for some of this precipitation to reach the ground. Activity would likely start as rain, but as temperatures cool, expect a transition to snow showers. Little to no snow accumulations are expected with the evening activity. This activity may also locally enhance the winds to greater than 45 mph, especially west of I-29. With that, decided to expand the Wind Advisory for this afternoon and evening a row of counties farther east to include Beadle to Bon Homme Counties in South Dakota. Another strong push of CAA will move into the area Friday morning, increasing winds across the area due to the deeper mixing potential. Winds could gust up to 60 mph (locally higher) mainly in south-central South Dakota where a High Wind Warning will be in effect from midnight tonight to 6 pm tomorrow. Elsewhere, winds could gust up to 50 mph, though the impacts from these strong winds (i.e., reduced visibility/blowing snow) will be covered in the Winter Weather Advisory that is discussed below.

Not too much has changed in our expectations for snow chances heading into Friday morning. We are still looking to see streaks of snow developing through Friday morning and lingering into the afternoon. The first of these narrow snow bands will begin to push into our area from the northwest after midnight and continue to develop through the morning hours Friday, including during the morning commute. The tricky part of the forecast is that there is still low confidence in the exact locations of where the heaviest snow sets up, but just keep in mind that conditions may rapidly change over short distances. Within the heaviest snow, visibilities may rapidly drop to as low as 1/2 mile due to the strong winds and thus will lead to hazardous travel. For this reason, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from midnight tonight to 6 pm tomorrow. Snowfall amounts will be generally less than inch, with some pockets of locally higher amounts up to 2 inches wherever a heavier band sets up over a prolonged period of time.

High temperatures on Friday will largely be in the morning hours as cold air advection increases through the day. Look for temperatures in the 20s tomorrow morning and then the teens in the afternoon. Wind chills will start dropping below zero Friday afternoon as well, with wind chills dropping to the teens to 20s below zero by Saturday morning. Cold weather headlines may be needed for this in the near- future. Winds could still gust as high as 40 mph Saturday morning, but winds will diminish quickly through Saturday afternoon. However, with these elevated winds in place through much of Friday night and Saturday, blowing/drifting snow will be an issue in locations that pick up at least an inch of snow.

Wind chills remain well below zero into Saturday night before we start warming up slightly into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will return to around seasonal normals, but this warm-up will be short- lived as another cold front is set to move across the area. Winds will increase again on Sunday as another punch of strong cold air advection moves through the area. NBM probabilities show around a 40-70% chance of winds gusting over 45 mph mainly west of the James River. Guidance indicates the potential for more snow streaks to develop on Sunday as another clipper system moves across the Upper Midwest, so continue to keep up to date with the latest forecast. Once again it looks like it would be a light snow, but low visibility in gusty winds type of event, but confidence on details is low at this time. From there, guidance differs more substantially, with the EC and Canadian models bringing in another clipper system on Tuesday/Tuesday night while the GFS keeps it north of the area. Temperatures will rebound after Monday, with highs and lows currently expected to be near January normals through much of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A strong cold front will move across the Tri-State area tonight, bringing a sharp wind shift. Gusts may approach 40 to 50 mph.

Scattered rain and snow showers may begin to develop after sunset and quickly move southeast behind this front. Any reduction in visibility or ceilings will be minimal.

After 3am, a more concentrated area of slight snow with embedded stronger snow showers will begin to pivot southward. Visibility and ceilings will be tied to the intensity of any pocket of snow that moves through but periods of IFR to LIFR visibility may be possible.

Scattered snow showers or snow squall potential may continue through the day Friday, with more isolated activity through the morning. An approaching wave in the afternoon could intensify linear snow bands through the region and produce occasional 1/2 mile visibility or less. Confidence on placement of any band is very low, so will only include a Prob30 group at this time. Winds will gust AOA 40 mph through the day.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ038-050-052- 053-057>059-063>065-068. High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for NEZ013-014.