textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and breezy conditions on Thursday will lead to elevated fire danger at times especially across the Missouri River Valley.

- More light snow chances (40%-60%) will return from Thursday night into Friday. While snow amounts alone would produce only minor impacts to travel, near-advisory level wind gusts of 35-50 mph with falling snow could cause additional travel concerns on Friday.

- Near to just below normal temperatures are expected into the upcoming weekend with the potential for colder wind chills by Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A mild and breezy day continues! Taking a look across the area, mostly cloudy skies continue this afternoon with a few pockets of light rain progressing out of western and central SD into central and eastern NE. While we can't completely rule out some light accumulations portions of southcentral SD through the early evening, most other areas should remain precipitation-free for the rest of the day. Shifting gears here, mild temperatures in the 40s and 50s along with breezy northwesterly winds through the early evening will promote elevated fire weather concerns across most areas today. While there is potential for very high fire danger along portions of the Missouri River Valley, elevated RH values in the 40%-60% range should taper the potential for fire start through this evening. Nonetheless, make sure to limit any activity that could create a spark as breezy northwesterly winds could help it spread quickly. Lastly, an influx of cooler air behind today's cold front will lead to even colder overnight temperatures with lows expected to bottom out in the low double digits to mid 20s.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Looking into the mid to late week, can't completely rule out a few convective snow showers to start the day on Wednesday as a ribbon of increasing dPVA works it way across the area. However, any accumulations would be limited at best. Much quieter conditions will continue for the rest of the day with highs mainly in the 20s to low 30s as cooler air continues to funnel into the region. Looking aloft, an active pattern will return by Thursday as another clipper wave zips across the northern plains with its associated cold front. While any resulting accumulations are expected to be light, temperatures in the 30s to upper 40s could lead to a brief rain/snow mix initially before things fully transition to light snow with falling temperatures into Friday. While this intermittent light precipitation should continue for most of the day on Friday, increasing northwesterly winds will likely accompany the falling precipitation. With this in mind, temporary period of reduced visibility are expected so make sure to drive to the conditions! Otherwise, with wind speeds in the 25-40 mph range on Thursday and 40-55 mph range by Friday; this will likely be the next periods to watch for potential wind headlines so make sure to continue following your local forecast especially if you have any travel plans.

SATURDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, temperatures will continue to fall into Saturday as a second cold front swings through ahead of an arctic surface high. This combined with breezier conditions thanks to a tightening SPG will lead to even colder wind chills by Saturday with the coldest values (-10 to -20 degrees) expected across southwestern MN. Otherwise, with broad northwesterly flow in place through at least the middle of next week; the "wave train" will continue as multiple shortwaves progress through the northern plains promoting small (<20%) but not zero chances for precipitation. Lastly, near to just below normal temperatures will continue ahead with highs mainly between the teens and 30s through Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR and MVFR ceilings to begin the period. A cold front continues to push south through the region tonight, resulting in a band of lower ceilings. Ceilings will improve as clouds push south over the next few hours. Mostly clear conditions and VFR ceilings will then prevail through the end of the period.

Northwesterly winds continue to be gusty through the overnight, with gusts of 25-28 kts. Near sunrise winds turn northerly and begin to decrease, becoming light and variable by afternoon and through the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.