textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries or light snow move through the area today. Any accumulation is expected to remain less than one half inch.

- Dangerously cold wind chills return tonight into Monday morning. Wind chills as cold as -20F and -35F are likely, coldest in east central South Dakota and southwest Minnesota.

- Temperatures remain below normal through the upcoming week, with no major storm systems on the horizon. However, periods of light snow may be possible mid-late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

TODAY: Mid-upper level trough will swing southeast across the area today, with deepening moisture profile bringing lowering clouds southeast through the morning. Cloud-layer temperatures fall within the DGZ at times, supporting scattered flurries or light snow as we are currently seeing upstream in far northern South Dakota and southern North Dakota early this morning. QPF amounts remain very light, perhaps a hundredth or two, so any snowfall accumulation should remain less than a half inch. As for temperatures, far northwest portions of the forecast area may see very little recovery from early morning readings, as the associated cold front and thicker cloud cover will limit any potential temperature rise. Locations farther southeast should see readings rebound into the single digits to lower teens above zero by midday-early afternoon.

TONIGHT-MONDAY: Somewhat non-diurnal temperature trends are expected tonight as a surface ridge moves through the area overnight, and trailing southwest flow develops and prior to daybreak. This should support steady to rising temperatures late tonight, after readings bottom out in the single digits to teens below zero. Despite the relatively light winds overnight, the cold temperatures and even a slight breeze will push wind chills into advisory range, beginning across our northeast counties this evening, then over most of the area by around midnight. The slowly rising late night temperatures will then be accompanied by slightly increasing wind speeds, which will maintain advisory-level wind chills into mid-morning.

A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued across the forecast area for tonight through 9-10 AM Monday. While not as cold as this past Friday, anyone who needs to spend time outside early Monday morning will want to dress in layers and keep exposed skin covered. A strong push of warm advection will eventually lead to what could be the warmest day of the work week, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper teens in southwest Minnesota to the lower 30s in south-central South Dakota.

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: Another cool front slides through the area Monday night, though sparse moisture should limit chances for any light snow/flurries. Mid-late week could bring slightly better chances for periods of light snow various waves interact with a northwest-southeast oriented thermal boundary across the region. Exact location of this boundary and associated chances for light snow vary among ensemble members and as a result, probabilities for QPF exceeding a hundredth or two remain below 20% in any 6-hour period. Expect precipitation chances for Wednesday/Thursday to increase in the coming days as models begin to show better agreement.

Temperatures Tuesday-Friday will remain below normal, with the spread between the NBM 10th and 90th percentile by late next week much smaller than we were seeing at this time yesterday. However, differences grow by next weekend, due to disagreement in the timing of a warm front which could bring temperatures near or even above normal as we transition to February. This feature could also bring another round of wintry precipitation to the region at some point next weekend, though confidence in details is very low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Areas of MVFR ceilings and brief MVFR visibility in -SN will move southeast across the forecast area today. MVFR ceilings may linger near/east of I-29 into the early evening, but overall improvement to VFR conditions are expected west to east through 26/06Z.

Northerly winds will occasionally gust 20-25kt in areas along and west of a KHON-KYKN-KSUX line from late morning into this evening before becoming light/variable overnight and eventually turning southwest by the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for SDZ038-050-052>054-057>071. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Monday for SDZ039-040-055-056. MN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for MNZ098. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Monday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097. IA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for NEZ013-014.