textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry conditions will return today and continue through next week.

- Daily heat index values will remain under 100 degrees in most areas, but the cumulative nature of the heat could lead to the increasing potential for heat-related issues.

- Next chances for rain could return by late week. However, severe weather is not expected at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 820 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

With mid-level ridging now firmly overhead, our shower and thunderstorm chances have now tapered down for the evening. From here, should see quieter conditions persist for the next several day as as upper-level ridging continues to strengthen over the central and western CONUS. The main focus will continue to be on the summer heat as southerly surface help daily highs increase into the upper 80s to upper 90s frpm Saturday to Sunday and 90s to lower 100s from Monday onwards. With dew points expected to mainly be in the 60s to low 70s each day, decided to keep our area heat-headline less for now as heat indices (HI) will likely fall just short of criteria (HI>100). Nonetheless, with heat indices expected to be hit the low to upper 90 degree mark each day; minor to moderate heat risk is still expected for most areas with some potential for major heat risk along the Highway-14 corridor. With all this in mind, make sure to stay hydrated and to take frequent breaks when working outdoors!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

THIS AFTERNOON and NIGHT: Considerable mid-upper cloud cover from mid-lvl vorticity over eastern Nebraska continues to spreads across the CWA early this afternoon. High resolution guidance keeps this cloud cover spread over the eastern half of the Tri- State area into early evening. Depending on the thickness of this layer, temperatures could be hampered slightly. Further north, we continue to see a compact area of vorticity cross western and southwestern Minnesota with a bit of ACCAS nearby. While some sprinkles may develop with this ACCAS, deeper development remains less likely given weaker instability in the area.

While the high level clouds add some uncertainty, guidance has generally backed off on convective potential later this afternoon and evening. Likely due to a lack of any strong surface convergence and a bit of weak inhibition. I continue to see two areas to watch...one being with the ACCAS field near Watertown, but second along what might be where a weak surface convergence boundary develops by mid-late afternoon from DeSmet to Mitchell and Yankton. Instability in this area will run from 1500-2000 J/KG, but shear is very weak. This results in only pulse severe storms with quarters and very localized 60 mph winds.

Isolated convection may continue over central and west central Minnesota overnight, but further southwest we'll remain quiet with light winds. Some fog may pop up, but widespread dense fog isn't anticipated.

THIS WEEKEND: A quiet weekend is ahead as temperatures begin to slowly rise. Winds will turn to the south or southeast both Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures both days will reach into the upper 80s over MN/IA and into the middle to upper 90s west of I- 29. Heat index values remain below advisory criteria.

NEXT WEEK: A 600 DM ridge will center itself over the Northern Plains for most of next week. This pattern spells two thing...hot and dry. Each day will feature nearly the same identical setup, with a breezy southerly to southeasterly wind and plenty of sunshine. The resulting high temperatures reach the lower to middle 90s along and east of I-29, with temperatures soaring towards the 100 degree mark. ECE/GEFS probabilities show 40+ probabilities of >100 degree highs along the James River valley. The saving grace this week will be the persistent dry air aloft and breezy winds. The resultant mix down each afternoon will drop the dew points towards the 50s and lower 60s. This results in a lower heat index trend, with only isolated spots with a heat index value near 100. While we won't reach advisory criteria in most areas, the cumulative nature of the daily heat and slower fall in overnight lows could still lead to some health related issues.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions will persist across the area this TAF period. Besides a few spotty showers across southwestern MN this afternoon, not expected any significant aviation concerns. Otherwise, Light southerly to southeasterly winds will become more light and variable overnight.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.