textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cool highs continue today, followed by a warmer temperatures through much of next week.

- Breezy to windy conditions are expected through the middle of next week, especially west of I-29. Strongest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph on Tuesday may result in elevated fire danger.

- Dry weather continues through the first half of next week. More active weather looks likely late next week, possibly centered around Friday/Saturday. Current thinking is that rain will be the prevailing precipitation type.

UPDATE

Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A broader range in temperatures across the area early this morning, ranging from upper teens to lower 20s in the far east where calm winds and clear skies continue. Areas farther west are seeing an increased cirrus shield, and more importantly, a slight increase in southeast winds (8-13 mph). This is keeping temperatures more mild, in the mid 20s to lower 30s near and west of I-29.

The wind disparity will be the general rule over the next several days, with stronger southerly flow favoring areas west of the I-29 corridor, especially locations toward central SD. These areas will see daytime gusts 25 to 35 mph through the weekend, with breezy conditions expanding east of I-29 on Monday. The strongest winds are still favored for Tuesday when gusts peak 35 to 45 mph most areas, again strongest toward south-central SD. Although afternoon relative humidity levels remain well above critical levels (above 50%), the stronger winds will lead to more widespread elevated fire danger on Tuesday, so please take care to avoid sparks in dry grass and crop debris.

No significant changes to the growing precipitation chances by the end of the forecast period. Still plenty of uncertainty in timing/track, but ensembles continue to favor mainly rain, with perhaps some light snow as the system exits (beyond the end of this forecast period).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Surface high pressure gradually shifts east tonight into Saturday, which will allow southerly flow to gradually increase from west to east during this time. WIth lighter winds east of I-29 tonight, cool low temperatures are again expected with lows around 20. West of I- 29 southerly flow will slowly increase and keep lows more in the mid 20s.

While southerly flow increase on Saturday, temperatures will not be much warmer, still only topping out in the 40s. A few gusts to 20 to 25 mph will be possible near and west of the James River.

A weak, moisture starved wave tracks northeast through central SD into MN Sunday into Monday and will further increase the southerly flow, bringing breezy conditions on Sunday and windy conditions on Monday. Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are likely, especially on Monday.

A stronger wave moves northward onto the Plains Tuesday but still appears to struggle with moisture, so precipitation chances will be few and far between. The main thing this system brings is an increase in winds. If everything times out properly we could see gusts of 40 to 50 mph on Tuesday. These stronger winds will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as the wave passes and swings winds around to a more westerly direction.

Mild temperatures continue Thursday into Friday as the system wraps up and lifts east and northeast. Some model variation begins to show up here an how to handle the deepening and exiting of this system while a new larger trough deepens over the Rockies and ejects onto the Plains Friday night into Saturday. While precipitation amounts will be very light for most of the area today through next Thursday, the ensembles as well as AI output are all hinting at a good chance for a system to bring a half an inch of rain or more to the area Friday into Saturday. Given the steep mid level lapse rates some elevated convection will also be possible. For now with a weak northern stream upper level jet, warmer low level air should surge north and remain in place helping to keep the main precipitation type rain. As colder air spills in behind a brief changeover to snow would be possible but for now this does not look like it will bring any moderate or major winter weather impacts to the area. But, this is 7-8 days out so will wait and see how trends pan out over the next several days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Southeast to south winds will become more breezy today, especially west of the I-29 corridor with frequent gusts 20-30kt at times. Gusts diminish with sunset, though brief gusts around 20kt remain possible through the nighttime hours.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.