textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Overall very low chances for any impactful precipitation chances the end of the week. An uncertain risk for snow arrives by Thursday and Friday with the better chances to the north.

- Temperatures warm into next week, with highs climbing 15 to 20 degrees above normal and potential for record warm low temperatures Tuesday.

- Gusty winds early this week may bring slightly elevated fire danger to the region. A late week shift will bring slightly colder temperatures and more wind to the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

A cold ridge of high pressure will settle into the area tonight and quickly shift east on Sunday. This will allow for some chilly, but still mainly near normal, lows tonight with a quick rebound in temperatures on Sunday as warming aloft overnight tonight tries to build to the surface. This will create a fairly strong inversion which will not be fully overcome, especially in areas that got an inch or two of snow. High on Sunday will likely be in the mid 30s over parts of southwest MN and northwest as well as areas of eastern SD with snow cover, with 40s in most locations west of I-29 that do not have snow cover. This inversion may help keep winds down a bit as there are some stronger winds aloft, but for now expecting gusts to mainly be around 20-25 mph.

A wave moves by to the north on Monday, further enhancing westerly flow and increasing mixing. This should lead to mild morning lows in the 20s and afternoon highs from about 45 to 55, warmest in south central SD.

Stronger westerly flow aloft will settle south on Tuesday, bringing another mild day, although some falling temperatures will be possible in the afternoon, and windy conditions with gusts likely around 35 mph. Morning lows will be very mild, possibly record breaking warm, and highs will climb into the 50s in most locations.

Another quick shot of cold air drops south into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with cold high pressure shifting east by Thursday morning.

Another fast moving wave tracks through the area which means more wind and up and down temperatures, the up being Thursday with well above normal temperatures and Friday into Saturday near to below normal. This wave is the next better chance for some precipitation, but for now those better chances remain to the north.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

A few lingering MVFR ceilings over southwestern Minnesota will gradually improve to VFR over the next few hours. After that ceilings and visibility should be VFR for the remaining period.

Gusty northwesterly winds will decrease from west to east this evening after sunset. Winds become light and variable through Sunday morning. Afternoon winds will be southerly and light with gusts generally less than 20 kts. The exception being areas at elevation and on the eastern slopes of the Buffalo Ridge in southwestern Minnesota, where gusts to 25 kts are possible.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.