textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain near to below average for this time of year through Sunday.

- There are no meaningful precipitation chances expected through the weekend and first half of next week.

- A more active weather pattern is looking more likely from the middle of next week into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 831 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A cold but calm night is ahead. Light and variable winds will continue through daybreak Friday. Skies will also be clear, allowing for maximum radiational cooling. Lows are expected to fall to the upper teens to low 20s. Despite sunny skies, lingering cold air advection will keep highs on the cool side, in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Meanwhile, a high amplitude upper ridge settles over central North America through the early morning hours. To the west a deep upper trough pushes onshore. As the surface high very slowly drifts east Friday afternoon and evening the light northeasterly winds will become breezy and southeasterly. The faster moving upper trough will push east into the Rockies, compressing the pressure gradient from the surface through the mid-levels over the western Plains. Good mixing up through 850 mb will tap into around 35 kts of wind. At the surface this will result in gusts ranging from 15-25 mph for areas along and east of Highway 81 Friday afternoon. A few gusts to 30 mph are possible over central South Dakota. Winds remain breezy overnight and push east through the day Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A surface ridge of high pressure will settle south into the area, bringing another morning of cool temperatures. Expect Friday morning lows from the upper teens to lower 20s in most locations. Most of the area near and east of the James River into southwest MN and northwest Iowa will see a 30-35% chance for temperatures below 20.

Cool high pressure slowly shifts east on Friday, bring southerly winds into central SD and lighter east to southeast winds near and east of Highway 81. Highs will remain below normal, topping out from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Low temperatures will rebound a bit Saturday morning as high pressure shifts east. Areas east of I-29 will see the best chance to dip into the lower 20s again, while southerly flow will slowly increase through the night. Lows in central SD will drop to 25 to 30, and possibly warm through the night.

Saturday into Sunday will see milder temperatures, highs mainly lower 40s to lower 50s, but this will be a bit off set by the stronger southerly winds, likely gusting to 25 to 35 mph both days.

Mild air overspreads the area early next week as a wave deepens to the west Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will keep southerly flow in the low levels in place during this time, along with breezy conditions. Highs will mainly be in the upper 40s to mid 50s while lows only fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

The next better chance for precipitation will come after the end of this 7 day forecast cycle, Wednesday night into Thursday. Still too early for any details but given the placement of the mid and upper level low pressure suspect any winter weather hazards will be west and north of the area with a more showery concern in the local area as the jet/dry slot wraps north Wednesday night into Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1010 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail this period. Winds will be light and variable through daybreak. For areas along and west of Highway 81, winds will become southeasterly and increase through the morning. Breezy conditions in the afternoon with gusts of 15-22 kts, highest over central South Dakota. To the east a surface high pressure axis will slowly drift east through the day. Winds will be light out of the northeast and gradually become east to southeasterly by the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.