textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect mild and dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the 50s to mid 60s.

- A system to the north will swing cooler temperatures southward for Thursday and Friday. A few sprinkles or very light showers are possible Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Dry west to northwest flow aloft will bring dry and mild conditions to the surface through early next week. A weak boundary will sag into the area later tonight into Sunday as low pressure moves east along the Canadian border. Other than a little moisture in the 500 to 300 mb layer, dry air below will keep any precipitation from forming. Given the mild low levels, expect highs in the 50s and 60s Sunday and Monday, warmer on Monday.

Another weak surface cool front sags south Monday night into Tuesday, but high temperatures will still climb well into the 50s. Once again, the wave to the north responsible for this weak front lacks moisture, so precipitation is not expected.

A sharp ridge of high pressure will develop over the western U.S. and allow for a northerly upper level jet to dive south onto the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will likely bring a quick shot of light precipitation with only minor impacts anticipated. The latest EC, Canadian and GFS ensemble output only hinting at a 5-10 percent chance for more than a tenth of an inch of rain.

The sharp ridge of high pressure aloft strengthens through the week, keeping northerly flow in place through the end of the week with near to below normal temperatures expected. This ridge is then expected to spread across the Plains neat weekend which would support very mild, above normal temperatures. Precipitation during this time is not expected.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Can't rule out some patchy valley fog tonight into early tomorrow morning, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the period. The better chances of seeing fog at a TAF site will be at KSUX, but chances are less than 20% at this time. Trends will be monitored.

Scattered low level wind shear concerns are expected mainly north of I-90 tonight. Surface winds will turn more northwesterly through the night as a weak cold front moves through. Winds will then gradually turn southerly heading into tomorrow afternoon. Fairly light winds are expected through most of the period, sustained around 5-10 kts.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.