textproduct: Sioux Falls
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Mild temperatures will persist into at least mid week with most locations 15-25 degrees above normal.
- Monday will be the warmest day ahead, with moderate to high chances (50%-80%) of highs topping 60 degrees along much of the Missouri River Valley. A few record highs could be tied or broken. Low afternoon humidity levels in these very warm areas may again result in elevated fire danger.
- Mostly quiet conditions will prevail into early next week. However, a pattern shift will bring light rain/snow chances by Wednesday-Thursday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 144 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026
Weak upper level support passes through the area today into Sunday morning. Overall not much expected from this other than some mid and high clouds. Southerly flow will remain in place into the evening and then become northwest, but speeds will remain on the lower side. This will allow for very mild low temperatures in the 20s, about 10- 15 degrees above normal. A very small chance for patchy fog in central SD late tonight and early Sunday morning.
Light westerly flow and increased low level temperatures will lead to a very mild Sunday with temperatures topping out in the 40s east of I-29 and the 50s near and west. Fire weather concerns will be on the lower side with the light winds and a cold ground.
All information continues to point towards Monday bring the warmest of the days upcoming. With a decent mid level wave moving through there will be some question marks however. The first will be how dense the mid and upper level cloud cover will be and the second will be how quickly the cold front will drop south. As for cloud cover, the upper level clouds should be fairly extensive and will limit warming a bit, but strong mechanical mixing will likely overcome most of the negative effects of the cloud cover. As for the front, the latest models are a touch faster with the front and the warmer readings of 60 or greater appear as though they will be mainly confined to areas closer to the Missouri River and nearby locations in northwest IA.
Behind the front Tuesday should be mild and dry, possibly a touch breezy in the morning.
The next wave of interest will come Wednesday into Thursday. The bulk of the forcing from this wave will come through on Wednesday evening and overnight. For now looking like a rain or snow threat with the lowest couple hundred feet determining the type.
While cold air is not expected behind this wave, a cooler regime will settle in, but temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year. Overall the models are in marginal agreement for Thursday into Saturday, all trying to carve out a trough in the western U.S. Some disagreement with differences in the northern stream energy and the southern stream energy, so will need to see how this pattern change evolves and how the models handle it before any confidence in expected weather. For example the 12z GFS has a negatively tilted trough moving into the Northern Plains while the 12z ECMWF has westerly flow aloft. The main story will be continued above normal temperatures.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026
VFR conditions along with marginally breezy southeast winds begin the TAF period. Winds will turn from out of the southeast to out of the northwest by tomorrow morning. Winds will then further back to generally being out of the west during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Speeds will remain light at about 5 knots or so. Low level stratus is currently present across a large part of North Dakota. This area of stratus will sink southwards through the evening and looks to affect locations generally along and west of the James River, including KHON, and some adjacent portions of highway-14 to the east. Currently have the low level stratus sitting at MVFR levels but latest guidance suggests that the stratus could fall to IFR thresholds. At this time, have continued with MVFR ceilings but will monitor trends through the evening timeframe.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.
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