textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold wind chill values in the -10 to -20 degree range will continue this morning with gradual improvements expected by mid-morning.

- Periods of light snow will move through the area starting this afternoon with accumulations between a dusting to 1 inch expected east of Highway-81 and 1-2 inches expected west of there. Temporary visibility reductions are expected with falling snow.

- Pockets of freezing drizzle into the overnight hours could promote a few patchy slick spots into Sunday mainly east of I-29.

- Temperatures will continue to trend towards our seasonal normals into the new week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

TODAY & TONIGHT: Another cold start ahead! Taking a look across the area, mostly quiet conditions continue this morning with temperatures hovering right around negative single digits for most areas. With lighter surface winds in place with the surface high overhead, wind chills continue to sit in the -10 to -20 degree range. While these conditions will likely persist through daybreak, should see gradual improvement as cloud cover increases with mid- level warm air advection (WAA) ahead of our next wave. From here, should see lighter surface winds become more southerly and increase into the afternoon with wind gust between 25-35 mph expected. With all this in mind, the stage is set for our next system. Looking aloft, the forecast remains on track with another clipper wave diving southeastwards across the northern to central plains bringing our next chances for light snow.

Most guidance continues to show strong agreement in a north to south deformation band developing across northcentral SD as 700 mb frontal forcing strengthens ahead of a warm front. Expect this developing area of light snow to progress into our area by early afternoon (11am to 1pm) and gradually weaken as it approaches the I-29 corridor mainly due to weakening frontal forcing. With the potential for snowfall rates up to 0.50" in/hr according to the HREF, can't rule out a quick 1-2 inches of fresh accumulations west of U.S. Highway- 81. However, weakening frontal forcing should slow accumulations through the I-29 corridor before an approaching lobe of dPVA helps creates another uptick in snow accumulations by late evening east of I-29. While accumulations of an inch or less of snow are expected east of Highway-81, the lower amounts could also be due to the loss in DGZ saturation depicted in the soundings. With this in mind, could see more freezing drizzle start to mix instead of actual snow which would lower overall amounts. Otherwise, any impacts should be kept to a minimum with slippery road conditions and temporary reductions in visibility expected with falling snow/drizzle. Lastly, should see most of this activity exit our area overnight.

SUNDAY ONWARDS: Looking into Sunday, can't completely rule out some additional flurries during the morning hours mainly due to a ribbon of vorticity progressing through the area. However, the main story will likely shift towards the temperatures moving forward as increasing mid-level warm air advection (WAA) help our highs approach more seasonal thresholds for the first time in about a week. With this in mind, expect temperatures to peak in the 20s to 30s for most of the week with the potential for 40s and 50s by Thursday. Looking aloft, broad northwesterly flow will help continue the "wave train" for most of the week. Nonetheless, our precipitation chances continue to look rather limited with our highest chances (20%-30%) expected by Tuesday as another clipper swings through. While some accumulations will be possible, 60%-90% confidence in measurable QPF (0.01" of an inch) according to the ensembles doesn't exact inspire much confidence in anything besides trace amounts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions this morning will transitions to MVFR and lower this afternoon as light snow moves through the area. MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys are expected for most areas through the overnight hours. However, can't completely rule out occasional LIFR cigs in our higher elevation areas with stratus. Otherwise, light snow will transition to periods of drizzle overnight as stratus sits over the area through Sunday morning. Lastly, southerly surface winds will become more northwesterly behind an approaching cold front to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.