textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to below normal temperatures will continue well into next week with highs mainly in the 70s to 80s expected.

- Scattered showers will return to the area by Monday afternoon. While severe weather is not expected, an occasional stroke of lightning and strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph will be possible. - More concrete shower and thunderstorm chances (50%-80%) will return Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time severe weather is not anticipated but once again gusty winds to 50 mph with these showers and isolated storms will be possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 839 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Light and variable winds overnight along with clear skies will allow for effective radiational cooling. As such overnight lows are projected to fall into the upper 40s to low 50s. West winds will begin to increase shortly after sunrise Monday as a mid-level wave moving in from the northwest compresses the SPG. Afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph are expected for areas west of I-29. Slightly lower gusts of 15-25 mph to the east. Breezy winds continue into the early part of the evening.

Monday late afternoon the aforementioned wave and surface cold front begin to work into the central South Dakota region, turning winds to the northwest. As it does so chances for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms increase (30-35% probability) in the late afternoon to overnight hours. The area most likely to see storms is northeast of a rough line from Chamberlain to Sioux City. Though a few isolated sprinkles are possible to the southwest. Severe weather is not anticipated, but there is enough instability for several lightning strikes. Strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph are also possible thanks to a deep, very dry inverted V sounding. Moisture is a bit scant with only a shallow layer between 700-600 mb. Coupled with the deep dry layer it is likely that accumulation totals will be low, a trace to a couple hundredths. Showers may linger into early Tuesday morning over southwest Minnesota. The rest of Tuesday looks to be dry with decreasing clouds. Highs will climb into the 70s and 80s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday brings the next chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Please see the Discussion below for further details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest winds will diminish this evening with light winds expected through the night. This should allow for solid radiational cooling, with Monday morning temperatures bottoming out in the 40s in most spots.

A quick moving system will move through the area on Monday which will bring about gusty winds again, with a few gusts around 30 mph possible. Model soundings continue to indicate weak surface based instability, mainly late afternoon into the evening. This will bring about the threat for a few showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm. While severe weather is not expected, a nice inverted v sounding suggests some stronger winds gusts, likely 40 to 50 mph. The better chances for these gusty winds should be near and northeast of a Huron to Spencer IA line.

The models continue to bring through the next system of interest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm advection increases Tuesday night ahead of the wave with mid level lapse rates increasing to about 7.5 degrees C. This may lead to some elevated showers or a very isolated thunderstorm. Weak instability still appears to be a limiting factor for development. By Wednesday afternoon this system is blowing by and severe chances appear to be pretty low. However, similar to Monday some weak surface based instability with a dry sub cloud layer and a strong westerly unidirectional wind could lead to gusty winds with any afternoon or evening shower that could develop, possibly gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

Thursday and Friday look generally dry and pleasant with highs Thursday into the 70s and Friday mostly in the 80s.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns for the weekend but for now confidence is low to moderate on location and timing. Some hints that the better chances may reside across Nebraska. Otherwise temperatures remain seasonally mild.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Breezy northwest winds will become light and variable over the next couple of hours. Shortly after daybreak winds turn to the west and begin to increase. By around noon gusts of 15-20 kts are expected. Around the same time an upper wave and surface cold front will approach out of the northwest. Winds will become northwest and increase further to 20-25 kts for areas west of I-29. Breezy winds continue through the end of the period.

Skies will be mostly clear overnight, becoming scattered to broken as the aforementioned system approaches. Ceilings will degrade down to around 9000-7000 ft AGL, but remain VFR. Chances for showers increase in the last few hours of the period for KHON, but confidence was too low to include at this time.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.