textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- LOW RAIN CHANCES: A few sprinkles to very light showers are possible mainly along and north of I-90 this morning (<15% chance) and during the late afternoon/evening tomorrow (30% chance). Rainfall totals will remain minimal.

- WINDY AND WARM SATURDAY: Gusty south to southwest winds will build tonight and continue Saturday. Isolated 40 mph winds will be possible, highest over the Buffalo Ridge. This pushes highs towards the 70s.

- COOL, SUNNY SUNDAY: A front passing Saturday night brings cool and comfortable weather with a bit of morning valley fog.

- PROLONGED DRY AND MILD PATTERN: Next week looks exceptionally quiet and dry, with above average temperatures into the weekend and low probability (<20%) of meaningful rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Showers have exited off to our east as the mid-level clouds have left the area, leading to mostly clear skies this evening. A weak mid level wave moves across the area through the night, with soundings showing a bit of elevated instability though moisture is lacking. Dry weather is expected, but if some clouds are able develop, a few sprinkles may be squeezed out of them (<5% chance).

As we head towards the daytime hours Saturday morning, a slightly stronger 700 mb wave will move into the area and with slightly better moisture in place, can't rule out very isolated showers developing mainly north of I-90. A dry-sub cloud layer will result in most of this activity falling as sprinkles to very light showers. Will have to watch this potential as winds a few hundred feet above the surface are around 45-50 mph. So if a shower/sprinkle can develop, it could mix down those kinds of winds to the surface with all the dry air beneath the clouds, but chances for development is low (<15%). Breezy conditions are expected otherwise across the area tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. Highest wind gusts will be around 40 mph mainly over the higher elevations of the Coteau des Prairies. Can't entirely rule out an isolated wind gust to 45 mph, especially if those aforementioned showers develop, but with the very low chance of development, will hold off on any wind headlines at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: Mid-lvl clouds associated with increased warm advection on the 700:600 mb layer will continue to spread north and east. Satellite showers increasing cloud growth north of I-90, so anticipating very light showers to sprinkles will accompany this cloud cover eastward, focused primarily north of I-90 towards Highway 14 (Huron, Brookings, Marshall) into very early evening. QPF amounts will remain minimal.

TONIGHT: Lee side troughing over the western High Plains will begin to shift eastward overnight, allowing an increased SPG to keep a rather breezy southeasterly wind through the area. Unlike Friday, morning, low temperatures should be much warmer through the region. The highest gusts may be near the higher terrain areas of the Buffalo ridge where 30 to 40 mph gusts are possible.

SATURDAY: A surface front slowly crawls east on Saturday, keeping breezy to gusty south and then southwest winds through the CWA. Soundings suggest a period of stronger mixing from mid-morning through early afternoon with a few 40+ mph gusts could be possible (highest in the Ridge areas). With less cloud cover ahead of the front, and deep mixing we should see a rise in temperatures towards the 70s in the afternoon. The populated NBM sits at the 75th percentile, but with the increased mixing and warm low-lvls would not be surprised to see highs a bit warmer and have nudged us into the 90th percentile in a few areas. Have also lowered dew points slightly. The arrival a subtle shortwave by mid afternoon could lead to scattered sprinkles to light showers along and north of Highway 14 in the afternoon and into SW Minnesota in the evening. QPF will be very light.

SATURDAY NIGHT: The passage of the front will bring slightly cooler temperatures southeast overnight. Would not be surprised to see patchy fog by Sunday morning as winds weaken.

SUNDAY: Cooler Canadian high pressure arrives for Sunday, featuring light winds and plenty of sunshine. This should be an absolutely beautiful fall day with highs in the mid 60s.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: A VERY quiet forecast remains for most of next week as broad mid-lvl ridging over the CONUS forces stronger jet stream energy north of the Canadian border. With the prevailing flow forcing any meaningful Gulf air away from the area, and no ability to bring any tropical air from the East Pacific, we're expecting a dry week. In fact the latest GEFS/ECE ensembles paint less than a 20% chance for >0.10" over the next 10 days in the Tri-State area.

Temperatures will be influenced by the passage of several weak fronts through the week. A return of gusty winds on Monday marks the first dry frontal passage Monday night. A second front passes through the area by Thursday. Temperatures are already favored to be warmer than normal through the region, and would not be surprised to see a few of those breezier days even warmer. 850mb temperature anomalies are expected to be at or above the 75th percentile through the week, further supporting the arrival of an extended period of above normal temperatures into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy southeasterly winds will gradually spread through the area tonight, turning more southerly and then southwesterly through Saturday morning. Sustained winds overnight will be around 10-20 kts for most of the area, with locally higher sustained winds to 25 kts expected in south-central South Dakota and the higher elevations of the Coteau des Prairies. Gusts in these higher elevation areas will push towards 40 kts during the morning into the early afternoon Saturday. Elsewhere, gusts during this time will be around 25-30 kts.

Also tonight, the low level jet will be intensifying over the area, leading to LLWS concerns at KFSD and KHON later tonight and into the early morning hours Saturday. A cold front moves into the area from west to east throughout the day, with winds turning to the northwest with this frontal passage through the afternoon, with this wind shift continuing east of I-29 just after this period ends.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.