textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures are expected today and Thursday with highs in the 40s and 50s (warmest today). Gusty winds will result in elevated fire danger, including areas of Very High grassland fire danger both days.

- Low-moderate (30-60%) rain chances toward south-central South Dakota today into this evening could locally ease fire danger concerns, though rainfall amounts will be less than 0.10" in most areas.

- Moderate confidence (40-70%) in light snow chances Thursday night into Friday. While snow amounts alone would produce only minor impacts to travel, near-advisory level wind gusts 35-50 MPH coincident with the falling snow could lead to additional travel concerns on Friday.

- Colder temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend with highs mostly in the teens and 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

TODAY-TONIGHT: A trough which passed through the Upper Midwest overnight will drag a backdoor cool front southward across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota today. We are starting off on a very mild note with 3 AM temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s. Decent mixing ahead of the approaching boundary should support highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s by midday before readings level off or even drop back a few degrees through the mid-late afternoon. Cooling may develop sooner in southwest parts of the forecast area as a trailing wave triggers areas of light rain through the Missouri to James River Valleys late morning into this evening. Amounts will be on the light side, generally less than 0.10", with only Gregory County seeing better than a 50% probability of exceeding 0.10" in the latest HREF data. With rainfall of only a few hundredths at best in most areas, west to northwest winds gusting 30-40 MPH and fully cured fuels in snow-free areas will lead to widespread High grassland fire danger with areas of Very High fire danger.

Spotty light showers/sprinkles could linger into the overnight hours tonight, and with temperatures cooling cannot rule out a few flurries before the precipitation ends after midnight.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Brief cool-down Wednesday before another bubble of warmer air moves across the region on Thursday. The mild temperatures will again be accompanied by breezy west to northwest winds, strongest west of the James River Valley where grassland fire danger could again reach the Very High category. Bottom line is given the lack of snow cover, any breezier day should be given extra attention with regard to fire concerns.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: The warm-up Thursday will be short-lived as a cold front pushes south into the forecast area by Thursday afternoon-evening. This will be followed by a secondary push of colder air by late Friday which will bring at least a couple of days with below normal temperatures for the upcoming weekend. Each shot of colder air will be accompanied by gusty northwest winds, with the strongest currently expected on Friday (NBM shows moderate-high/50-90% probability of gusts exceeding wind advisory criteria of 45 MPH along/west of I-29).

Unfortunately, these winds will accompany areas of light snow Thursday night into Friday. Although latest models favor snow amounts around an inch or less (highest toward Highway 14 into southwest Minnesota), any falling snow with the anticipated strong winds could lead to enhanced travel concerns in blowing snow. Those with travel plans Friday should closely monitor the forecast for the latest updates.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: Winds remain breezy into Saturday and Sunday, though not as strong as we are expecting on Friday. Depending on how much snow falls prior to Saturday, we could continue to see areas of drifting snow into the weekend. This is also the period most favored to see below normal temperatures during this forecast period, with highs mostly in the teens and 20s. May have to watch for near advisory level wind chills early Sunday, mainly across east central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota as temperatures fall below zero.

NBM shows temperatures rebounding closer to normal by Monday, but this could depend on timing of the next wave and associated cold front. Little agreement in the timing of this feature in the latest deterministic models, but if it arrives by Sunday night or early Monday as seen in some solutions, then current NBM high temperatures in the 20s to mid 30s may be on the high side.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1112 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mostly VFR conditions will transition to a mix of VFR and MVFR cigs this TAF period. Taking a look across the area, mid to high level clouds continue to sit over the area this afternoon with a few pockets of sprinkles. While this developing precipitation is mainly focused across the upper Missouri River Valley, current thinking is the better chances will stay just west of our area with an approaching cold front before pushing southwards. Otherwise, VFR to MVFR cigs will progress through the area overnight with continued elevated northwesterly winds. Lastly, northerly flow will gradually decrease into the day on Wednesday.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.