textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Locations east of I-29 may see a light wintry mix Thursday morning. Any snow or ice accumulations would be very light.

- Mild temperatures and gusty northwest winds Thursday will lead to elevated fire danger near and west of I-29.

- Snow showers and strong winds develop Thursday night into Friday. While snow amounts alone would produce only minor impacts to travel, strong winds in excess of 45-55 MPH with any falling snow could significantly reduce visibility.

- Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week with the potential for near-advisory level wind chills at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A quiet but chilly afternoon continues across the area! As warm air advection increases tonight, scattered light showers look to develop mainly east of the James River. This activity is expected to remain very patchy in nature, so most us will remain dry. If this precipitation occurs, it will likely start as snow and then turn to rain as temperatures warm-up through the morning; however, could see a brief changeover to a wintry mix/freezing rain before it turns to plain rain. This potential for frozen precipitation is slightly better east of I-29. However, due to the short-lived nature of this potential and the fact that temperatures do look to warm above freezing in the afternoon, any icing impacts will be minimal. Additional rain/snow showers look to develop late in the afternoon and evening as an upper-wave moves through the area. Soundings also indicate some instability as well which will aid in this potential. This activity should be all plain rain or snow depending on temperatures. Once again, the diurnal temperature will favor any showers to start as rain and then turn to snow as temperatures cool tomorrow evening. No accumulations expected with this activity. Soundings also indicate some 45+ kt wind gusts at the top of the mixed layer Thursday afternoon and evening especially west of I-29, but confidence was not high enough in the areal extent of these stronger gusts to issue a Wind Advisory at this time. Trends will be monitored closely. Regardless, breezy conditions tomorrow will lead to elevated fire weather concerns mainly west of I-29. Relative humidity values above critical levels will prevent widespread issues, but any fire that does develop could spread quickly in strong winds.

Winds look to get even stronger heading into Thursday night and Friday morning as we see continued strong pushes of cold air advection through the area. Winds look to gust up to 55-65 mph or higher mainly west of the James River into south-central South Dakota. The current High Wind Watch continues to represent the area with the greatest chance of 58+ mph wind gusts, but expansions eastward may be necessary as we continue to look at new higher resolution data. Winds could still gust as high as 45-50 mph as far east as I-29 on Friday, so it looks to be a windy day all around. The other concern on Friday will be the potential for snow squalls or horizontal convective rolls to develop. Snowfall accumulations look to be light (generally less than an inch), but the primary concern will be visibility reductions within any areas of snowfall. The best combination of strong winds and snow will be during the morning commute, so be prepared to potentially make any travel adjustments Friday morning. With the scattered nature of snowfall expected on Friday, conditions may change rapidly from one place to another. Snow chances will gradually wind down Friday evening as the main upper low pushes off to our east. High temperatures on Friday will likely be reached in the morning, with temperatures falling through the afternoon. Lows by Saturday morning look to be in the single digits on either side of zero.

Winds will diminish through Friday night, but will stay elevated into the weekend. This will lead to wind chills in the teens below zero for much of the area Friday night into Saturday morning, with wind chills in the 20s below zero mainly north of I-90. Future considerations for cold weather headlines may be needed as we get closer to the weekend. Temperatures will moderate a bit heading into Sunday, but this will be short- lived as another cold front is set to move through the area. This will also lead to additional light snow chances as well, though we are too far out to get into specifics regarding amounts. This frontal passage also looks to bring an increase in wind gusts, with the potential for additional wind gusts exceeding 40 mph especially the farther west you go across the area. Heading into the start of the next work week, temperatures will bounce around between normal to below normal with drier conditions favored.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Will watch MVFR to low VFR ceilings over central South Dakota try to advect east early this evening. However, most guidance suggests that mid-lvl clouds will gradually overspread areas west of I-29 through the evening and this low stratus dissipates.

Mid-clouds will move east through the night, with a very low chance of sprinkles/flurries east of I-29 Thursday morning.

A cold front will then progress eastward Thursday morning, reaching I-29 around 18Z. Winds behind this front will turn west and then northwest with gust potential over 35 knots.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.