textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures over the weekend will give way to the return of above normal temperatures by next week.

- Mild and breezy conditions by Monday could promote some locally elevated fire weather concerns mainly west of the James River Valley.

- More precipitation chances (20%-30%) should return from Tuesday night into Wednesday promoting the potential for rain, snow, and/or a wintry mix of the two. However, some uncertainty remains in timing and overall amounts.

UPDATE

Issued at 244 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Another cold and quiet night continues as lighter surface winds and lingering cold air advection (CAA) help temperatures decrease into the single digits to low double digits to start the morning. Similar to yesterday, conditions will be on the chillier side with highs only reaching the upper teens to low 30s. Northwesterly winds will again be on the breezier side with gusts between 20-30 mph expected which could make conditions feel a bit colder than what they actually are. From here, while most areas should stay dry precipitation-wise; there is still a small chance (10% or less) for a few sprinkles across southcentral SD as lift increases with an approaching wave. Any accumulations would be light at best. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions to start the new week with the potential for rain and snow returning from Tuesday night into Wednesday mainly north of I-90. Lastly, temperatures will take on a warming trend by Sunday promoting highs mainly in the 40s to 50s from Monday onwards.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Light flurries have ended this afternoon and skies are beginning to clear from the southwest to the northeast. Highs today will be a little below average for this time of year, in the 20s. For reference, average for late February is in the mid 30s. Breezy northwesterly winds decrease after 6pm CDT and become light and variable. Light winds and clear skies will allow for maximum radiational cooling, so have bumped NBM low temperatures down just a touch with a blend of BCCONSShort. Lows will be in the single digits above zero.

Saturday will be mostly sunny in the morning. As we move into the afternoon, a mid-level wave passes through the region with a surface low pressure over the south-central Plains. This will result in increasing afternoon clouds. Some short term guidance hints at isolated, very light flurries Saturday evening. Very low confidence in these flurries occurring or reaching the ground due to a dry subcloud layer. If the column can saturate, and flurries make it to the ground, very little if any accumulation is expected. As far as high temperatures are concerned, very weak WAA in then 900-800 mb layer will help warm temperatures a bit from today, into the mid 20s to upper 30s for areas along the Missouri River Valley. Overnight skies will be mostly clear, however slightly breezy winds overnight will keep low temperatures a bit warmer than they would be otherwise. Lows are expected to fall to the single digits to low teens above zero. Wind chills will be colder overnight thanks to the breezy winds, in the minus teens.

Sunday will be dry with cold highs in the teens and 20s thanks to a strong shot of CAA. Good mixing will allow us to tap into a 30-40 kt LLJ beginning early Sunday morning. Gusts will begin to increase after midnight, reaching their peak around late-morning at 25-30 mph. With northwesterly winds aligned well with the Buffalo Ridge, down sloping on the lee side of this area will result in the highest gusts, up to 35 mph. Winds rapidly decrease in the afternoon. Overnight wind chills will once again fall into the minus single digits and teens.

The below average temperatures will be short lived as high pressure settles over the region Monday. A strong push of WAA will begin a warming trend that looks to continue through the end of the week. Look for highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s with the warmest temperatures over south central South Dakota. Tuesday a second strong push of WAA will boost highs even warmer, in the 40s and 50s.

Tuesday night a weak mid-level wave just clips our northern counties bringing chances for precipitation back into the forecast. Precipitation looks to begin as a rain and snow mix before transitioning to all snow as temperatures cool. A second, stronger wave passes through right on the heels of the first, bringing better chances for snow Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. A large spread in model solutions keeps uncertainty high. If you have mid-week travel plans, be sure to check the forecast again as details become clearer.

The rest of the week looks dry and warm with highs in the 40s to 50s with some 60s possible by Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1034 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Mainly VFR conditions begin the TAF period. A small area of MVFR ceilings is present across a small part of southwest Minnesota. A stray flurry is possible beneath the stratus. Light and variable winds will persist through the night. Latest guidance has backed off a bit on the potential for more widespread MVFR ceilings. Thus, have continued to leave it out of all TAFs but will still keep an eye on trends through the night. Winds will pick up out of the northwest with gusts up to about 20 knots for tomorrow afternoon. The breezy northwest winds will persist for the rest of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.