textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures continue through much of the 7 day forecast, occasionally bringing increased fire danger risks.

- No major storm systems on the horizon, but risks for rain mixing with snow could be possible into Thursday, mostly over SW Minnesota.

- Precipitation amounts will be light into Thursday, with the probability of more than 0.10" of measurable precipitation only around 20-30%. Any snow accumulation will be under an inch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

THIS Afternoon: Considerable high level cloud cover persists this afternoon, as temperatures are rising well above normal in most locations. Near record to record temperatures will be focused along or mostly south of I-90 this afternoon as cloud cover and light winds continue to impact temperatures slightly. To the northwest, a weak cold front stretches through southeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota. Air behind this front is cooler, but nothing like what can be typical for February. Some moderate to high GFDI values will persist south of I-90 through sunset as dew points mix into the 20s ahead of the boundary through fire danger itself will lower with variable afternoon winds.

TONIGHT: Northerly winds spread across the forecast area into Tuesday bringing cooler air southward. CAMs indicating a brief period of 20 to 30 mph winds behind the front, so have again pushed deterministic NBM values upwards towards the 90th percentile. That said, low temperatures may only fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s, which are near seasonal high temperature normals for early February. Some CAMs do indicate the potentials for sprinkles to move through the CWA after dark, focused mainly by weak dPVA at 700:500 mb. Will add in a low PoP (20%) to account for this potential.

TUESDAY: Another very quiet day is anticipated for the region on Tuesday. Passing vorticity may keep a few mid-lvl clouds in the region, but without any major cold air advection overnight, highs are still likely to climb well through the 40s in the afternoon. Have increased wind gusts slightly over populated NBM guidance as weak cold advection may steepen the lapse rates enough to bring down 20 to 25 knots gusts.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Models remain in strong agreement on the flattening of the mid-lvl flow by mid-week. Within this pattern, mid-lvl vorticity will travel eastward through the Northern Rockies and into the Plains. By Wednesday evening, guidance shows a continued increase in the 925:850 southwesterly low level flow, this increased low-lvl convergence will try to advect enough moisture to aid in the development of light rain over eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. Precipitation amounts will be on the light side however, with ECE/GEFS probabilities of >0.1" of QPF less than 30%. Initially precipitation will develop as rain, but given the diurnal cooling trend along the higher elevation of the Ridge, will need to watch for a changeover to snow into Thursday morning. The deterministic NBM seems to capture this split in p-type well with 50/50 odds of rain/snow. If temperatures do line up perfectly, then up to an inch of snow could be possible along the ridge based on some ensemble data. Temperatures by Thursday afternoon will climb back into the 40s with the synoptic warm front established along the northeastern edge of the CWA.

FRIDAY-MONDAY: We remain in a fairly persistent mild mid-February pattern heading into next weekend as zonal mid-lvl flow persists over the CONUS. While ESAT tables suggest that no significantly anomalous low-lvl thermal airmass extends over the Plains, persistence of snow-less ground and day after day of temperatures in the 30s to 40s, will make it much easier for afternoon highs to remain in the 40s into the weekend. Temperatures should surge even higher by the end of the weekend and into next week as strong ensemble guidance towards West Coast troughing develops. Lee-side troughing should induce gusty southerly surface winds by Sunday and Monday, resulting in LREF probabilities of exceeding 50 degrees at 65%. While the latest NBM deterministic guidance cooled temperatures a degree or two, a slight upwards increase of a few degrees towards the 50/75th percentile took place given ensemble data.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR skies continue into the evening hours. We're watching a cold front slowly progress southeast late this morning. This front will bring a return of northerly winds to the CWA by 00Z. Mid- lvl clouds increase after sunset and drift southeast overnight. Some guidance hints at low-stratus developing behind the passing front, but confidence in development is far too low to include any mention in the TAF.

VFR mid-lvl clouds linger over the area through 3am, with clearing expected into daybreak. Northerly winds may gust over 20 to 25 knots at times behind the front, weakening by daybreak Tuesday.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.