textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A snow band is expected to bring snow accumulations north of the I- 90 corridor overnight into Saturday morning. The highest snow amounts, 1-3 inches, will be confined to near and north of a De Smet SD to Windom MN line. Further south, a light dusting remains possible.

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Lincoln and Lyon counties in southwest Minnesota from 3 am to noon Saturday. 1-3 inches of snow remains expected but isolated higher amounts up to 4 inches is possible. Especially if light snow persists through Saturday afternoon.

- A low chance of light snow develops Sunday, followed by periodic low to moderate chances for precipitation next week. High confidence in an active spring weather pattern, but low confidence in precipitation timing and type (rain, snow, and/or mix), highly dependent on temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Latest 00z guidance has come in a bit further south with tonight's snow band. With the nudge southwards, confidence has increased in snowfall amounts up to 1-3 inches across portions of Lincoln and Lyon counties in southwest Minnesota. Isolated higher amounts up to 4 inches is possible. Thus have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for these counties that is in effect from 3 am to noon on Saturday. The band of snow will exit the area by tomorrow afternoon though some very light snow showers may persist into the afternoon timeframe. This could result in an extension of the Advisory through the afternoon timeframe and push snowfall totals more broadly to 3-4 inches if confidence increases in light snow persisting. Any chance for light snow will come to an end by tomorrow evening, leaving dry and quiet conditions for the rest of Saturday evening.

Another round of very light snow remains possible for Sunday afternoon. However, after looking at the latest guidance, have trended PoPs down as the bulk of the guidance has precipitation well south of the forecast area. Left some slight chance PoPs in place as due to a few models continuing the northern solution, so didn't want to completely rule out the possibility.

Additional chances for precipitation will persist through the rest week but differences in how medium range guidance handles the upper and lower level waves prevents any deviations from the NBM at this time. The good news is that none of these systems looks to be a major system with light precipitation being the main hazard.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

LATE THIS AFTERNOON: Looking across the region, temperatures range from the low 50s (Highway 14 corridor) to the 60s (Highway 20 corridor as of 2 PM. Highs will reach near or exceeding records at a few sites in northwest IA and southwest MN (for example, Sanborn, Sibley, Worthington, Windom, Lake Park, and Spencer). Model blends have struggled all day in keeping up with efficient mixing, with gusts peaking in the 40s and dew points dropping to 17 to 25 degrees throughout the day in the Warning area. Dew points have regularly dipped to near or below the NBM 5th percentile. Have expanded the Red Flag Warning to account for localized, more efficient mixing. Near critical to critical fire danger persists across the region through sunset. See the Fire Weather section below for more details.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY: This evening, attention turns to a cold front dropping south into the Northern Plains and a trailing compact shortwave in northwest flow aloft. Warm air advection and moderate mid level frontogenetical forcing with the wave should prompt sufficient top-down saturation to produce light to moderate snow near and north of a De Smet to Windom line late tonight into Saturday morning. This area can expect around 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation by Saturday afternoon. The big lingering question is exact snowband placement and how far south snow will occur, especially for anyone traveling toward the Twin Cities or Fargo this weekend. It is possible to get a light (<1") dusting of snow as far south as Chamberlain to Sioux Falls to Storm Lake. However the 00z/06z/12z deterministic models have maintained the northward shift of the snowband placement, putting the bulk of the heaviest snow (3- 6") oriented from northeast SD through west central MN and toward the Twin Cities metro. There also remains a little uncertainty regarding when snow will end Saturday afternoon in southwest MN. A few models suggesting flurries or light snow may linger as late as Saturday evening northeast of the Buffalo Ridge, where isolated amounts of 3 to 4 inches cannot be ruled out.

Aside from snow creating minor travel impacts, the other main story will be a cool down heading into Saturday. Sites receiving 1+ inches of snow are unlikely to see temperatures above the freezing mark Saturday. Further south, highs in the 30s to mid 40s will be common but warming will somewhat depend on clouds clearing.

SUNDAY: Strong Arctic high pressure builds eastward along the Canadian border early Sunday. Currently have low temperatures starting the day in the single digits to teens, but if clouds clear out overnight, lows could be colder than currently forecast. Broad warm air advection brings a low chance of light snow or flurries Sunday, but impacts look to be minor at this time.

MONDAY: Upper level flow becomes zonal across the Plains Monday as a strong upper trough progresses through the West. A leading, zonal flow shortwave brings a low to moderate (30-50%) chance of rain or snow Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. Expect a breezy, cool Monday with highs in the 40s.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND: A progressive Colorado Low ejects into the Plains mid week and perhaps another Friday/next weekend, bringing periodic, spring-like precipitation chances across the Central U.S. through the week. While a blend of model guidance would currently favor highs in the 40s and 50s, a majority of deterministic model guidance runs much cooler with highs 5-10 degrees cooler daily. Given the low confidence in temperatures, confidence in precipitation type will be highly dependent on speed and timing of the wave (i.e., snow more likely at night).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Confidence has increased in the timing and location of light snow tonight. The bulk will still fall across portions of highway-14 in southwest Minnesota, including KMML and KTKC. But KHON should see light snow being a few hours after midnight. Ceilings will lower to MVFR/IFR levels while visibilities fall to IFR thresholds in falling snow. Perhaps briefly down to LIFR visibilities at peak snowfall rates. The light snow will last through the morning hours before the bulk of it pushes northeast of the area. Some light snow could persist through the afternoon hours but this would mainly be for portions of southwest Minnesota. VFR conditions will return to the vast majority of the area, including all TAF sites. Winds will turn out of the northeast and remain elevated to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday for MNZ071-072. IA...None. NE...None.