textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Low probability (less than 30%) risk for very light wintry precipitation after midnight. Any accumulation is expected to be minimal.

- Confidence remains high in an extended period of warmer and quiet weather through the holiday travel week.

- Temperatures themselves may approach or surpass record values as we move towards the end of next week, including Christmas day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: An initial wave of warm advection has moved east of the area, but spread a large corridor of mid-lvl clouds through the CWA. Temperatures under this cloud cover have been stuck in the 20s. Gusty southerly winds of 25 to 30 mph will slowly weaken by evening.

TONIGHT: Zonal mid-lvl flow pushes another sheared out area of vorticity through the Dakotas overnight, along with a surface frontal boundary. CAM guidance shows a trailing corridor of light precipitation trying to develop behind the passage of this frontal boundary. While there will likely be some dry air issues as the forcing moves through overnight, soundings do suggest a very narrow possibility of flurries to light freezing rain sliding southeast through daybreak. Again, QPF is anticipated to remain very light, so no impacts are anticipated.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: The initial front moves southeast early in the day, with quasi-warm downslope flow moving eastward through the day. This will push high temperatures back near to above normal, with the coolest highs over SW Minnesota and northern Iowa. A secondary cold front arriving in the evening drops temperatures down into the single digits to teens by Sunday. However with mid-lvl heights rising on Sunday, we'll again see warm advection develop early Sunday with southerly surface winds also developing. Should mid-lvl clouds remain transient enough to prevent any impact to surface temps, we should see highs climbing above freezing in all areas of the CWA.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: Confidence remains high that we'll have a quiet and warmer than normal holiday travel week ahead of Christmas. Rising heights on Sunday will continue to rise through the week, with 500 mb heights by mid-week pushing the 99th percentile or outer edge of all climatology for late December. The broad ridging will also surge warm low-lvl temperatures across much of the Lower 48, resulting in 850mb temperatures sitting outside of the 30 year CFSR reanalysis centered around late December. The result will be highs rising well into the 40s through Wednesday. The broad mid- lvl ridge axis shifts ever so slightly eastward by Christmas day, with all signs pointing to one of the warmest Christmas days on record for much of the region. While much can change over the next 6-7 days, the current deterministic NBM and mean high and low temperature forecast resides closer to the 75th percentile. This suggests that even further increases in highs may be possible as Christmas approaches. The GFS/EC/CMC ensembles all point to a greater than 50% probability of 50 degree or warmer temperatures at 00Z/26, suggesting highs will be favored to be even warmer.

For those dreaming of a white Christmas, the synoptic pattern won't support those wishes as of this moment. While it may take some time to melt away the glacier of ice that still remains in some areas, the vast majority of the area will remain under 1" of snow unless a major shift happens in guidance between now and Christmas.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1039 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Southerly winds late this evening continue to shift to the northwest, with gusts through the period around 20 to 25 knots. May see some marginal LLWS at times if gusts drop off early this overnight while a strong LLJ moves across the area. Given the anticipated gusts, did not include mention at any sites.

Still anticipating isolated snow or rain showers overnight, but believe coverage and impacts will be limited to due very dry sub cloud layer. Therefore, have continued the mention for KHON and KFSD in a PROB30 group. Greatest chances for any precip would be north of I-90 and into northwestern IA.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.