textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional elevated fire concerns will be possible by Monday and again Wednesday as the warm and dry conditions persist.

- Limited precipitation chances will continue through Wednesday.

- Rain chances could return from late Wednesday to Thursday. However, some details remain uncertain.

UPDATE

Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Taking a look across the area, we're continue to see light returns develop on radar mainly in response to increasing dPVA and isentropic lift ahead of an approaching short wave. While we can't completely rule out a few sprinkles to flurries especially across southwestern MN through about 7-8 am, not expecting much in terms of measurable accumulations. From here, a beautiful spring day is ahead with highs mainly in the upper 40s to upper 50s with mainly light northerly winds. Looking ahead, conditions will continue to trend warmer and drier through the midweek. As periodic breeziness continues intermittently, elevated fire concerns will return with the focus being on Monday and Wednesday. However, the greenness of fuels from recent rainfall could taper concerns for a bit. Otherwise, our next chances for rain will likely return from the second half of Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front progresses through the area. While recent runs of guidance have come into better agreement with the placement of features, soundings continue to show limited moisture and a decent cap in place which could hinder any stronger develop. Either way, these details will be subject to change so make sure to monitor your local forecast!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Very dry and windy conditions have brought another day of very high/near critical fire danger to the area. While many of the fuels have begin to quickly green up, the warm season tall grasses are still lagging a bit and remain susceptible. Winds will slacken around and after sunset diminishing the near critical fire weather concerns.

Later tonight a weak wave will track by mainly to the north, scraping by parts of highway 14 into southwest MN. This will likely bring through a short period of scattered rain/snow showers with accumulations remaining on the minimal side. As this system passes a weak cool front at the surface will sag south and keep temperatures on the cooler side again Sunday, albeit a bit warmer than today and right around the seasonal normals. Highs generally near 50 in southwest MN to near 60 along the Mo River Valley.

On Monday flow aloft flattens and brings in a westerly warmer shot of air in the low levels, with surface winds increasing from the south. Highs will push into the 70s in most locations with a few 80s in central SD. Once again, breezy and warm conditions coupled with dry air will bring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions to the area.

A weak front sags south on Tuesday dropping winds and alleviating fire weather concerns. Temperatures will again be warm with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Well above normal temperatures are anticipated on Wednesday with a few locations possibly creeping up towards record warm highs. Most records are hovering in the lower to mid 90s. One thing fighting reaching the record warm highs will be a south to slightly southeast potential for surface winds which usually does not support the deeper mixing needed to reach into the mid 90s. However, with southerly winds likely gusting to 30 to 40 mph near critical fire weather conditions are again expected.

The next potential weather maker for the area will be a deepening trough over the Central Rockies Thursday which should drift northeast into Friday. A bit better agreement amongst the models this time around in deepening this low in south central Canada Friday and then just kind of locking it in place across central Canada into the weekend. What this should mean is another warm day Thursday with a good chance a cold front moves into the area which will bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Cooler temperatures also become much more likely Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, VFR to MVFR stratus continues to progress through the area with pockets of flurries to sprinkles. While accumulations will be light, should most of this activity move out of the area over the next few hours. Otherwise, light northwesterly winds this morning will become more northerly throughout the day with gusts between 10-15 mph possible.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.