textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind chills expected to fall as low as -10 to -20F into Saturday morning.

- Light snow will move from west to east through the Tri-State area beginning Saturday afternoon and ending Sunday morning. Accumulations of a dusting to 2" most likely, with a touch of freezing drizzle also possible.

- Temperatures begin to thaw on Sunday with temperatures favored to be near or above normal into much of next week.

- No major storms expected through the upcoming week, however occasional bouts with light snow may be possible again Sunday, into Tuesday, and lingering Wednesday. Accumulations at all times are expected to be under 1 inch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

THIS Afternoon: Temperatures continue to remain in the single digits in most areas behind the passage of a backdoor cold front this morning. A few lingering flurries will persist along the MO river valley into late afternoon, with clear skies elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Temperatures will drop quickly as winds fall off after sunset. Have trended towards colder model guidance that will lower temperatures towards the -5 to -10 range in many areas. The light and variable winds will prevent cold weather advisory criteria from being met, however some areas may drop to -20F by daybreak.

SATURDAY: Guidance remains in agreement that an upper trough will cross the Rockies and move through the Plains on Saturday. This wave may split as it arrives, with an initial push of forcing from warm advection and dPVA inducing light snow moving from west to east across the Dakotas/Nebraska through the day. Significant layers of dry air ahead of this precipitation may slow the top-down saturation in the afternoon, also limiting overall accumulation. By time the first split of vorticity moves east, a dusting to 1" of snow may be left in it's wake. Gusty southerly winds are also expected to increase in the afternoon, with higher elevation areas experiencing a growing potential for 30+ mph winds. These winds should arrive before the falling snow, limiting the blowing snow risks. Later in the evening, guidance is showing a second piece of vorticity tracking southeast, with the loss of ice in the soundings, this wave may induce more of a freezing drizzle potential into the evening and early overnight hours. Any icing will remain very light, but could lead to a few slick spots on untreated or snow-less roads. At this point, the snow amounts are too low for any advisory to be issued, however we'll need to monitor the freezing drizzle risk into the overnight hours.

SUNDAY: A cold front will sweep through the area early Sunday shifting any falling precipitation to the east. In the wake of the passing mid-lvl trough, winds may shift more to the west in the afternoon allowing at least a partial warmup back to the upper 20s and 30s.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: We'll continue to remain in stubborn northwesterly flow through the middle of the week, keeping the area on the edge of warmer low-lvl temperatures, but also bringing the risk for cold frontal passages nearly every other day. One such cold front may arrive on Monday as a weak trough moves through the mid-lvl flow pattern. Deterministic and ensemble guidance is quite split on the timing of this wave through the area, which will enhance the stalled low-lvl baroclinic zone as it passes by. Currently the favored precipitation time in in the late Monday and Tuesday timeframe, when snow up to 1" may be possible. Slightly cooler temperatures return Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Mid-lvl heights begin to rise during the middle and end of next week, allowing temperatures to climb a bit further into the 30s and even 40s Wednesday and Thursday. While not significant, another trough moves through the northwesterly flow by the end of the week. Current ensembles only keep a 10-20% probability of any measurable precipitation focused along the Buffalo Ridge, with dry conditions elsewhere.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions begin the TAF period. A small area mainly across parts of northwest Iowa is seeing MVFR cumulus clouds sink southwards this evening. This will leave VFR conditions for the overnight hours with light winds slowly turning out of the south. The southerly winds will strengthen through the morning hours tomorrow, with gusts up to 20-35 knots expected during the afternoon timeframe. At the same time, snow will be pushing into the area from the west during the late morning and early afternoon timeframe. The snow will be spreading eastwards and will affect all TAF sites. The gusty winds and falling snow will result in visibilities down to at least MVFR levels but could fall as far down to IFR thresholds. Ceilings are expected to fall to MVFR thresholds in falling snow. There could also be a little freezing rain on the backside of the snow but confidence is not high enough to include in a TAF at this time. The gusty winds and falling snow will finish out the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.