textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain and drizzle gradually ends tonight, as winds remain breezy into Thursday.

- Considerable cloud cover and periods of fog may be possible into the weekend. This cloud cover could have an impact on the potential for hard freeze conditions.

- An extended period of dry weather is now likely through most of next week as temperatures rise back above normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 805 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Very light rain and drizzle continues to pivot through the Tri- State area, gradually eroding as mid-lvl dry air pushes southeast. The current stratus field may drift southeast bringing brief clearing to portions of the CWA into early Thursday. However, nighttime RGB imagery shows a large and building plume of stratus plunging southward out of Canada and into the northern US as of 8pm. As this cloud layer arrives to the Highway 14 corridor a brief period of fog may form. However the progressive nature of the fog should lead to widespread overcast skies by mid-morning.

Temperatures will not rise much on Thursday given the cloud cover, with highs stuck in the lower to middle 40s in most areas. While stronger gusts weaken through the day, we're still looking at a breezy northerly wind into the evening.

The persistence of light north to northeasterly 925:850 mb flow is likely to hold stratus in place Thursday night and Friday. This brings into doubt the extreme fall in temperatures the NBM has been suggesting by Friday morning, with short term CAMS indicating clouds holding low temperatures near or above the freezing mark.

It may not be until Friday that low-lvl winds shift directions enough to mix out stratus and allow some slightly drier boundary layer conditions to develop. Though this may take until Friday afternoon. Depending on how well stratus mixes out Friday afternoon, the return of evening an nocturnal low-lvl warm advection overtop of the stratus could trap the stratus over western MN/IA overnight. Further west, the question becomes fog potential if temperatures quickly drop in the evening. This could result in increased probabilities of fog and perhaps dense fog along and west of the James River valley into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The upper and surface low located over Minnesota and Wisconsin will continue to occlude while slowly moving east through the remainder of this afternoon and evening. To the northwest we see an upper ridge and surface high pressure building in. Much drier air through the mid-levels will work into the region, ending light rain/drizzle from northwest to southeast through the overnight. All precipitation should be ended/east of the region by daybreak Thursday. Overnight and through most of the day Thursday northwest winds remain breezy with widespread gusts of 15-25 mph. Occasional gusts up to around 30 mph are possible along the Buffalo Ridge. Mixy winds keep overnight lows a bit warmer than they would otherwise be. However, they are still expected to be colder than we've seen recently, in the low to mid 30s, warmest over northwest Iowa.

By late Thursday afternoon the upper ridge axis will cross through the region. Pressure gradients will relax and winds will taper off from the late afternoon and through the evening. Though dry air will be present in the mid-levels, a pesky thin layer of moisture just above the boundary layer will keep broken clouds in our forecast through the remainder of Thursday. This along with weak CAA will limit highs to the low to mid 40s. Overnight winds become light and variable while clouds slowly break up. Lows will drop into the mid 20s to low 30s by daybreak Friday. For many, this will be the first hard freeze of the season.

Friday clouds will finally break up and become mostly sunny in the afternoon. The previously mentioned surface high will continue to move east, turning light winds to the south. Highs for Friday will be seasonably cool in the 40s, with overnight lows falling to the mid 20s to low 30s. A series of upper waves will pass through the region Saturday into early next week. Mid-levels continue to be very dry, so not expecting precipitation with these. However, a few low- level clouds may be possible. Highs during this period will warm from the 50s Saturday, to low 60s Sunday, to mid 60s Monday. Lows will generally be in the 30s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 501 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Considerable cloud cover continues to pivot through the region late this afternoon. MVFR to localized IFR ceilings remain along and east of Highway 81 and may continue to stay in those areas into the evening hours. Areas of fog/drizzle/rain under this stratus may continue into the evening. Some VFR conditions may briefly remain in place near Huron, but most guidance shows a large surge of stratus (currently in southern Canada) arriving in the morning hours of Thursday.

MVFR to localized IFR conditions will continue to be likely through the day on Thursday, with a steadily weakening northerly wind.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.