textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions with patchy light snow in mainly southwest MN will diminish through sunset. Little to no accumulation.

- Roller coaster temperatures are expected for the week ahead with spotty chances for precipitation throughout the week.

- A potential pattern change late week into the weekend may bring better chances for precipitation to the area during this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Wrap around snow will continue to slowly drift east and northeast through early evening. Precipitation should mostly come to an end by late afternoon as the upper level low pushes east and drier air moves in. With the chilly air mass in place lows will again be in the 20s.

Deep northwest flow will bring the next wave to the north of the area on Sunday which could bring some patchy light rain to parts of southwest MN, but chances remain low. A nice little bump in temperatures ahead of this wave with highs from the lower 60s along the Missouri River and in the 50s most other locations. Will likely see some falling temperatures late afternoon near and north of I-90 as the cold front drops south. Will likely see some gusts from the northwest of 25 to 35 mph with strong cold air advection from late afternoon through about midnight. This will bring a chilly Monday morning with lows possibly into the teens near highway 14 and 20s elsewhere.

Monday will be a chilly day with highs in the 30s and 40s and a north wind of 10 to 20 mph. A weak system will bring some mid level frontal forcing to the Missouri River Valley with some patchy light rain and light snow possible. For now amounts look fairly low.

Low pressure will deepen over MT on Tuesday and ahead will swing a wave onto the Plains. Overall the threat for meaningful precipitation is low, but some patchy light rain and light snow is possible. A quick look at the soundings hints that saturation aloft moves in, but the low levels remain dry. By the time the low level saturate a bit, the upper level begin to dry out so the overlap will likely be short lived. There is some weak elevated instability in mainly northwest IA which could help sustain a little bit of precipitation.

This deeper low pressure in MT will swing into the Northern Plains Wednesday and bring a shot of warmth with highs in the 60s most locations. There will be a chance for some light rain or light snow Wednesday into Thursday, but the majority of the forcing with this wave will be to the north. Winds will turn gusty Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as the system passes by to the north.

The southern stream jet becomes more active late in the week into next weekend as a trough of low pressure develops over the western U.S. This should bring our next better chance for precipitation. The latest Canadian and GEFS 50th percentile ensemble output showing a half an inch to an inch of precipitation during this time wile the ECMWF Ens is hanging on to dryer conditions. This is likely due to the ECMWF indicating a weaker western U.S. trough. Will keep an eye on this as this system would likely produce rain and snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Widespread MVFR conditions will gradually improve to VFR through the afternoon into the evening. Patchy IFR conditions in light snow will be likely across mainly southwest MN into mid afternoon. Otherwise northwest winds will gust to 30 to 40 mph through the afternoon, decreasing after sunset.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ040-056. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ071-072-080-097. IA...None. NE...None.