textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain above normal through this entire 7 day forecast. Temperatures may reach 20 to 30 degrees above normal nearly every day into next week.

- Dry conditions and occasionally breezy afternoons may lead to low end fire danger risks into next week, more focused Sunday through Tuesday.

- Light precipitation (mainly rain) risks tonight-Thursday have trended south and lighter. Little if any snow is expected, and any light rain should remain near to south of I-90.

UPDATE

Issued at 250 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Clear skies/light winds within high pressure moving across the region has allowed for optimal radiational cooling early this morning, with temperatures falling into the upper teens in the valley areas of northwest Iowa. A slight uptick in south to southwest winds elsewhere has held temperatures in the 20s, warmest in our higher elevation and downslope areas where temps are closer to 30F. Will see some increase in high-mid level clouds this afternoon along with some increase in the south to southwest winds, supporting highs in the upper 40s and 50s.

Precipitation chances tonight-early Thursday have continued a southward trend in the latest model guidance, with amounts likewise trending downward in response to persistence of a dry layer below 5kft AGL. Latest NBM shows <20% probability of rainfall exceeding even 0.05", with greater chances now focused south of I-90 and toward the Missouri River Valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: Stratus continues to slowly erode this afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise into the 40s in many locations. Gusty morning winds continue to weaken as the influence of high pressure drifting through central and western South Dakota arrives.

TONIGHT: Light and variable winds are expected through the night as high pressure drifts eastward. The return of mid-lvl warm advection may trigger scattered mid-upr level cloud cover. The dry ground and initial clearing of skies could lead to a quick drop in temperatures, but increasing clouds may serve to stabilize that drop. If temperatures fall far enough, then patchy fog may develop along or east of I-29.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Heights rise early on Wednesday, with low-lvl warm advection increasing through the morning hours. A breezy southerly wind should aid in pushing temperatures upwards quickly in the morning, with afternoon highs again pushing into the lower to middle 50s. Have trended highs just above the NBM deterministic and towards the 75th. Afternoon wind gusts exceeding the 20-25 mph mark could lead to high GFDI values in most locations, with patchy areas of very high levels near the Missouri River.

Mid-lvl warm advection increases after dark Wednesday, as mid-lvl vorticity approaches from the west northwest. Based on the QPF output from 12Z models, moisture convergence still remains marginal ahead of the wave, suggesting that precipitation may struggle to develop initially. However, soundings would indicate greater chances at gradual top-down saturation overnight and into Thursday morning over the Tri-State area. Surface temperatures remain near or above freezing as the lift arrives, with low-lvl column temperatures suggesting nearly 50/50 probabilities of rain/snow. The lowest 500 ft of the atmosphere may be the final determination of the p-type, but have hedged a little bit towards snow and adjusted population temperatures to push p-type in that direction. QPF amounts will be light however with 60-70% ensemble probabilities of QPF >0.01" and less than 20% probabilities of >0.10" focused mostly over far eastern SODAK, southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. NBM percentile QPF backs this thought up as well, with 25th percentile of a trace to the 90th percentile of 0.08". With precipitation moving east by mid- day and temperature continuing to rise into the 40s any snow that falls won't linger for long.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: We'll remain in a bit of a muddy northwesterly mid- lvl flow pattern at the end of the week and into this weekend. Not much in the way of meaningful weather impacts however, outside of some increased cloud cover. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 50s both days with both the LREF and NBM showing a narrow spread in the 25/75th of only 4-5 degrees. Should clouds avoid us, Saturday could be a very warm day with current deterministic NBM sitting closer to the 90th than the 75th.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: No shortage of warm air into next week as mid-lvl ridging increases over the Central CONUS as a West Coast trough arrives. Surface winds turn more southerly by Sunday and continue into Monday. While not strong (20 to 30 mph gusts), we may see slightly elevated fire danger Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are likely to remain well into the 50s to start next week, with the NBM mean and deterministic forecast shifted well to the left towards the 75 percentile suggesting greater potential for even warmer temperatures. At this time, a look at climate records early next week would suggest that we'll begin to approach, but likely not exceed, record values.

CLIMATE TIDBIT OF THE DAY: Sioux Falls is already sitting at 5 days of highs 45 degrees or warmer this month. With at least the next 7 days forecast above that threshold, this would place February 2026 with the 2nd most 45+ degree days in recorded history (18 in 2024). If we could somehow reach 45 degrees today, the potential consecutive streak of days at 45+ degrees would break the consecutive record of 12 in a row set back in 1981.

Similar statistics are found at Sioux City with the most 45+ high temperature dates at 19 set in 2024 and at Huron the record is 15 in 1931.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, though locations near the Missouri River Valley including KSUX could see very brief MVFR ceilings if light rain develops and moves east across the area after 12/00Z.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.