textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow will spread east into Saturday evening. Accumulations will remain less than 2", with the highest totals along or west of the James River.

- Pockets of freezing drizzle, freezing sprinkles, snow, or sleet into the overnight hours may lead to patchy slick spots by daybreak Sunday.

- Temperatures will continue to trend towards our seasonal normals into the new week with no major systems ahead.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

THIS Afternoon: Light snow continues to move into central South Dakota early this afternoon. Water vapor and radar imagery indicates an area of vorticity racing southeast and towards northern Nebraska. The track of this energy may edge the slightly higher snowfall totals along the MO river valley this afternoon. However, nearly all short term guidance allows the snow to reach I-29 by 5- 6pm. Snow totals this afternoon will stay under 1" in most areas. Increasing southwesterly surface winds will continue to bring 30+ mph winds along the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge.

TONIGHT: This initial area of vorticity will begin to shear out into the evening hours, and with less forcing and a significant dry layer further east of I-29, precipitation may begin to struggle as it moves east. QPF and snow amounts east of I-29 may just be a dusting to a few tenths. A brief lull in any precipitation may develop through mid-evening before a secondary trough begins to approach from the northwest. Lift, mostly in the form of 925:850MB warm advection will begin to spread from west to east eventually focusing northeast of a line from DeSmet to Sioux City by midnight through daybreak. Soundings through this area suggest about a 50/50 chance of having ice present, meaning a mixture of freezing drizzle/freezing sprinkles/snow/sleet could fall at times through daybreak. The passage of a surface front will usher forcing eastward, ending the risk by mid-mornign Sunday along the Ridge. Any accumulation will be light, and if we can have a half inch of snow fall then icing impacts will be less notable. However, if only a dusting of snow falls, then we could have some problematic icing into Sunday. Confidence is too low on the coverage of freezing drizzle to issue and advisory, but trends will need to be monitored.

SUNDAY: Any low-lvl lift will dissipate by mid-morning, leaving continuing stratus across the region through Sunday. We'll gradually see winds shift back to the west through the day which should allow warmer air off the western High Plains to advect eastward. I'm cautiously optimistic that highs will climb into the 30s in most locations given full ensemble spread from 33 to 42 degrees, with the probability of highs greater than 35 in Sioux Falls sitting at 89%.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Monday remains dry for much of the day prior to the arrival of a backdoor cold front late in the afternoon. An approaching mid-lvl trough within the northwesterly flow will induce some light snow over north central South Dakota by the late afternoon, with this area of very light snow tracking southeast through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning. This moisture starved wave will lead to only very light snowfall totals less than 1". Temperatures cool back to the 20s on Tuesday with dry conditions and light winds.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: The rest of the week looks very quiet with no major storms expected. Another subtle wave moves through the region on Wednesday, but again only brings very light snow amounts. Broad warm advection spreading through the Plains the end of this week and into next weekend may bring a surge of high temperatures into the 30s and 40s. The warmest day may end up being focused around Thursday with LREF histograms suggesting strong support for highs into the middle and upper 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 551 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A mix of VFR down to MVFR ceilings is expected to continue for the majority of this period. This is due to a band of snow that is currently moving across the region from west to east. Areas west of I-29 are experiencing scattered IFR visibilities while snow is falling. Visibility will gradually improve as the snow moves east tonight. Areas east of I-29 are contending with some dry air that will likely eat into the snow production, which will likely work to keep visibility above IFR.

As snow tapers off there is a chance for some freezing drizzle to sprinkles, or possibly sleet. Model soundings are in medium to high agreement that KHON will experience a few hours of this mixed precipitation type. KFSD and KSUX there is a lower agreement but enough that FZDZ have been included in prob30 groups. Precipitation should be east of the region by mid-Sunday morning. However, clouds look to hang around most of the day, resulting in periodic reductions to MVFR ceilings.

Southerly wind gusts up to 25-30 kts will continue through the late evening before gradually decreasing after midnight. Winds will then turn northwesterly behind a cold front and begin to increase to 20- 22 kts by Sunday afternoon.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.