textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record to record temperatures persist through Tuesday, with forecast highs will be +25 to +35 degrees above average.

- Fire weather concerns are at the forefront today, with a Red Flag Warning from 12 PM to 6 PM for locations along/west of a Forestburg-Mitchell-Wagner line. Elsewhere High to locally Very High grassland fire danger is expected

- Rain and some snow chances (30-60%) return Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The bulk of this precipitation will stay north and east of the area.

- Low-moderate (30-50%) chances for a second round of light snow Thursday. While amounts/location are uncertain, minor impacts to travel are possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Another early morning where light winds and any holes in the high cirrus have allowed temperatures to drop more sharply than expected. Have continued to adjust temperatures through sunrise accordingly, but otherwise no significant adjustments to the near-term forecast today. Despite weak warm advection, expect efficient mixing within the lowest 2-4kft AGL, highest across our southwest counties. This scenario favors the warmer/drier/breezier side of model guidance, with highs in the upper 50s and 60s, relative humidity as low as 15 to 20 percent in south central SD, and 20 to 30 percent elsewhere. Soundings support potential for wind gusts 25 to 30 MPH across the area of lowest humidity, which continues to support the Red Flag Warning across most of our western counties this afternoon.

Latest model runs do not show any significant changes in our rain/snow chances for Tuesday night-Wednesday, with the focus for heavier precipitation amounts remaining well north of our forecast area. Still plenty of variance in solutions for Thursday as noted below, though there may be some trend toward a wetter consensus, with the 00Z ensembles showing 30-50% probabilities of 24-hour QPF exceeding 0.10" on Thursday. This may be a period to monitor for possible minor travel impacts, as precipitation would more than likely be light snow and northerly winds could be on the breezy side.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A few light showers/sprinkles persist across parts of the area south of I-90 early this afternoon as weak lift in a somewhat saturated dendritic growth zone (DGZ) persists. With dry air in the low levels, rain may not fully reach the ground, resulting in virga. When rain has reached the surface, reported rainfall amounts have been very light, at around a hundredth of an inch. These light showers and sprinkles will persist through the rest of the afternoon hours and into part of the evening timeframe before this weak lift pushes east of the area. Thus, quiet conditions are expected for the overnight hours. Low temperatures will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s.

Sunday will be a very warm day with high temperatures warming to the upper 50s to upper 60s across the area as warm air advection (WAA) strengthens a bit aloft. This will push 850 mb temperatures up to +5C to +11C, placing these temperatures in the 95th percentile of climatology. Thus, near record to possibly record high temperatures are on the table for tomorrow. The very warm temperatures will also coincide with low humidity and some breezy winds mainly west of the James River. Thus, fire danger is possible in this area. More details about this fire danger can be found in the fire weather discussion below. Given the sunset this time of year, any fire danger will come to an end around sunset. Low temperatures will be mild, only falling to the 30s to about 40F.

Next week will begin dry on Monday with a continuation of above normal temperatures thanks to upper level ridging residing over the central CONUS. Highs will again be warm in the 50s and 60s. Things begin to change on Tuesday as heights begin to fall aloft ahead of an incoming upper level wave. WAA will strengthen ahead of the incoming wave, pushing 850 mb temperatures up to +5C to +10C aloft. There will also be a warm front associated with the WAA as well which can alter temperatures. Currently favoring a high temperature range from the upper 50s to low 70s which is supported by the NBM. The NBM shows a 70-100% chance for high temperatures to exceed 60F along and south of I-90. With breezy winds in place, there could be a return of elevated fire danger. However, both the fire danger threat and high temperatures could be mitigated if low level stratus develops. Currently, the LREF shows a 40-70% chance for cloud cover to exceed 50% along and north of I-90. Probabilities drop to about 20% along the Missouri River valley.

While the daylight hours will be dry, chances for precipitation will increase as the main quasi-geostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent arrives. Since temperatures will be quite warm, the main precipitation type is expected to be rain at this time. A cold front looks to push through the area during the overnight hours, cooling temperatures and increasing winds out of the northwest. At this time, the deterministic guidance is in decent agreement in keeping the bulk of the precipitation north and east of our area. The ensembles continue to show the highest probabilities (60-100% chance) for exceeding a tenth of an inch in this same area as well. The exception is the Euro AI ensemble as it shows a 60-80% chance exceeding the same amount of liquid QPF along and north of I-90. With temperatures further cooling into Wednesday morning, some light snow could mix in with any light rain showers. Wednesday will be cooler, but still above average with highs in the 40s and 50s with a continuation of breezy winds.

Another round of precipitation is possible on Thursday. Though this round of precipitation is a bit more uncertain as medium range guidance varies on the evolution of an upper level wave passing through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The majority of the guidance has a more progressive wave passing through which will would only bring minor precipitation to the area. The exception is the operational Euro model as it amplifies the wave and closes off the low. The ensembles on the other hand keep the wave progressive and show a 10-30% chance for liquid QPF amounts to exceed a tenth of an inch. The highest probabilities are driven by the operational Euro ensemble. Will continue to monitor how this system evolves over the coming days as changes in the upper level system can have meaningful changes in the forecast.

The end of the week looks to be more on the quiet side of things as broad troughing resides over the Northern Plains. This will keep temperatures closer to seasonable in the 20s and 30s. The ensembles support this as they show at most a 30% chance for for high temperatures exceeding 40F. Mainly dry conditions will accompany the return to near seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, though could see pockets of MVFR visibility in fog over portions of northwest Iowa early this morning and again late in the TAF period. This is not expected to impact KSUX at this time.

TAFs look more complex than the lack of sensible weather would indicate due to changing wind conditions over the next 24 hours. Light/variable to southwest winds to start the period will become gusty out of the south to southwest this afternoon. Gusts diminish by sunset this evening, but areas along/east of I-29 will then see a few hours of low-level wind shear develop in response to a 40+kt low level jet above 1kft AGL. These LLWS conditions abate before the end of the TAF period as winds become light and variable again.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for locations along and west of a line from Forestburg to Mitchell to Wagner SD this afternoon. High temperatures will approach record levels, while a dry pattern will support relative humidity levels mixing down as low as 15-20 percent in these areas. The favorable mixing will also support wind gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph, perhaps briefly stronger during peak mixing in the mid-late afternoon. Burning should be avoided.

The remainder of our forecast area will see High to locally Very High grassland fire danger. Winds will be slightly lower (gusts around 20 MPH) and humidity levels slightly higher (20-30 percent minimum).

Depending on extent of mid-week precipitation chances, increasing winds Tuesday into Wednesday could produce additional periods of elevated fire danger.

CLIMATE

Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The forecast through Tuesday will feature near record to record highs and near record warm low temperatures:

Record high temperatures:

February 15: KFSD: 63/1921 KSUX: 67/1921 KHON: 66/1921 KMHE:66/1921 February 16: KFSD: 64/1981 KSUX: 66/1981 KHON: 62/2017 KMHE:63/2017 February 17: KFSD: 70/1981 KSUX: 71/1981 KHON: 67/1913 KMHE:70/1913

Record warm low temperatures:

February 16: KFSD: 35/1998 KSUX: 37/1998 KHON: 36/2011 February 17: KFSD: 33/1992 KSUX: 37/1930 KHON: 35/1981 February 18: KFSD: 38/1994 KSUX: 39/1971 KHON: 35/1994

Additionally climate perspectives indicate that the current forecast through Monday the 16th would push the mean monthly temperature departure at Sioux Falls (+15 degrees), Sioux City (+15 degrees), and Huron (+18 degrees) as the warmest February on record through that date.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ050-052-053-057>059-063-064. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.