textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and predominantly dry conditions will persist into the weekend. However, scattered showers with isolated thunderstorm may return this afternoon mainly across northwestern IA. Severe weather is not expected.

- Dry and breezy conditions over the weekend could lead to elevated fire concerns especially by Saturday. Make sure to limit any activities that could create a spark!

- A return to an active pattern by Monday will lead to multiple rain chances (30%-50%) throughout the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Taking a look across the area, mostly quiet conditions persists as mid to upper-level clouds continue to filter in this morning. While a few embedded sprinkles could develop as mid-level frontal forcing strengthen towards daybreak, a drier sub-cloud layer should keep most of this very light precipitation from reaching the ground. Nonetheless, added in a few sprinkles to POPs through 12z using a blend of the RAP13 and GFS mainly along the eastern side of the Coteau Des Prairies. Otherwise, should see most cloud cover gradually thin out by early afternoon as highs peak in the low to upper 70s. With observations continuing to trend towards the NBM90th percentile each day, decided to blend in some of the Canadian to get ahead of the increasing temperatures.

From here, the focus turns towards this afternoons rain chances (30%- 50%). As 850 mb frontal forcing strengthens ahead of a lifting warm front, this could be enough to trigger some scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms mainly across northwestern IA. While severe weather is not expected, pockets of moderate rainfall and up to dime size hail will be possible with stronger updrafts as mid-level lapse rates steepen. Nonetheless, should see most of this activity push eastwards by late evening. Lastly, breezy and dry conditions will return over the weekend. Coupled with the warmer temperatures, can't rule out some locally elevated fire concerns especially by Saturday as fall harvesting activities continues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Quiet conditions persist across the area early this afternoon. High temperatures have warmed to upper 60s and 70s with mainly clear skies and light to marginally breezy winds. The pleasant conditions will persist for the rest of the afternoon so get there and enjoy it! Low temperatures will bottom out in the 40s to just about 50F overnight.

The daylight hours on Thursday will see a continuation of warm and quiet conditions with highs warming back to the upper 60s and 70s. Winds will turn to out of the south but still remain light to marginally breezy with gusts up to about 20 mph or so. The next chance for light rain looks to return to the area Thursday evening and night as a weak shortwave trough pushes into the area and strengthens low level warm air advection (WAA). The WAA will steepen mid level lapse rates just enough to result in minor instability on the order of 200-500 J/kg of CAPE. With enough elevated moisture and lift in place, scattered showers with an isolated storm or two is on the table. Chances (20-50%) for rain will persist through the night with the highest values residing east of I-29. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light at a few hundredths to up to about a tenth of an inch.

Friday will be another dry day across the area with high temperatures further warming to the upper 70s and 80s across the area. The warm highs will be accompanied by marginally breezy southerly winds. Low temperatures will also be on the warm side due the southerly winds, with lows only falling to the 60s. This is supported by the ensembles as they show an 80-100% chance for low temperatures to remain at and above 60F. With such warm overnight lows in place, they could rival record warm low temperatures. Something to keep an eye on going forwards.

The thermal ridge axis will push into the area aloft on Saturday, leading to the warmest high temperatures into the 80s. The southerly winds will be much stronger throughout the day with winds gusting up to 30-40 mph. This is supported by the european ensemble as it shows a 50-90% chance for gusts to exceed 30 mph. The warm conditions will be met with lower dew points, down to the 50s. This looks to result in lower humidity values down to about 30-40% across the area. The lowest humidity values look to reside along and west of the James River. Could see humidity values further over the next day or so. With stronger winds, warm temperatures, and low humidity in place, elevated fire danger looks to make a return to the area. The main uncertainty about this potential is fuels. Recent rainfall has kept grasses green so will have to see how much drier fuels get heading into Saturday. Slowly weakening southerly winds will keep warm overnight lows in place, with lows falling to the upper 50s and 60s.

A cold front looks to push through the area on Sunday, potentially resulting in cooler high temperatures and weaker northwesterly winds in its wake. However, this potential will depend on how quickly the front pushes through the area. Medium range guidance shows a large variance in how fast the front will push through the area. Will watch trends in the fronts progression to see if adjustments to the forecast is warranted.

A potentially more active pattern may return to the Northern Plains for the first half of next week. Medium range guidance continues to show a large variance in how the upper level pattern will evolve. The ensembles paint a clearer picture with an incoming longwave trough cutting off over the southwest CONUS before ejecting eastwards on Wednesday into the Plains. The ensembles show a 20-50% chance for rainfall total to exceed a tenth of an inch, with the highest values coming next Wednesday. Details can still change but this looks to support more rain chances and cooler temperatures for next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A few sprinkles are possible (20% chance) along the Highway 14 corridor into southwest Minnesota into the early morning hours as mid to high level clouds continue to stream into the area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms look to develop (20-50% chance) between the I-90 corridor and the Missouri River Valley in southeastern South Dakota during the late afternoon Thursday and push eastward into northwest Iowa by the evening hours. As this activity may develop in between KFSD and KSUX, opted to leave out any mention of RA or TSRA in the TAFs at this time.

Winds will remain very light to calm through the early morning hours, becoming southeasterly at 5-10 kts from the mid morning through the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.