textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire concerns continue this afternoon and will return tomorrow afternoon. This will be mainly driven by breezy conditions, with winds gusting up to 35 mph each afternoon.

- A quick moving system on Wednesday will bring our next round of mainly light snow. Most of the area should see less than 2 inches of snow, but locally higher amounts can't be ruled depending on if and where a heavier snow band sets up.

UPDATE

Issued at 959 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Minor edits to the short term forecast this evening. Dropped lows a couple of degrees in spots that were cloudless earlier this evening and dropped more quickly. Maintained forecast from previous shift of keeping winds a bit stronger for tomorrow, and cooled Tuesday high temperatures a degree or so in our far southeast where there is still some snow cover and with anticipated clouds. Have removed most of the flurries/sprinkles from the forecast with tomorrow's cold front based on soundings showing lots of dry air.

Looking ahead to mid week, did raise QPF a touch from the NBM using the previous forecast for Wednesday's snowfall. There may be additional changes as more of the 24.00z runs come in, as guidance still shows a variance in the location of the heavier snowband. Amounts at this time still look light, with most seeing less than 2 inches and higher amounts in the heavier band.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns will continue mainly along and west of the James River into this afternoon as temperatures continue to warm. Most spots should end up in the 20s and 30s for highs this afternoon, with a few 40s in south-central South Dakota. A milder night is ahead, with temperatures only dropping to the upper teens to upper 20s as cloud cover increases. This will be ahead of a low pressure system moving across northern Minnesota into the Great Lakes that will send a cold front through the area tomorrow. The precipitation associated with this system is likely to remain north and east of the area, but lift along the cold front could help set off some sprinkles to flurries. The main thing to watch tomorrow will be the potential for elevated fire weather concerns as winds stay breezy out of the northwest in the afternoon, gusting up to 35 mph. Cloud cover and relative humidity values around 30-60% (lowest along the Missouri River Valley) will help limit widespread fire weather concerns, but any fire that does develop could spread quickly in the breezy conditions. Temperatures will warm into the 40s and low 50s tomorrow afternoon, though the extent of warming may be limited somewhat by the expected cloud cover.

An upper level wave will move out of the northern Rockies and into the central Plains on Wednesday, and this will bring our next round of accumulating precipitation to our area. There is still some uncertainty in the track of the system, and that will play a role in how much snow we see and where the highest totals will be. At this point, it's looking like any areas that see snow will see a general trace to 2 inches, with the highest values focused over northwest Iowa and adjacent portions of southwest Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota. Temperatures at this point look to be warm enough in south-central South Dakota to keep the precipitation type as mostly rain, but there is some uncertainty with the temperatures there as well. With all that said, let's now talk about the uncertainty and how this forecast may change. Guidance appears to be falling within two camps regarding the track of the system. One camp shows the axis of heavier precipitation moving mainly along the I-90 corridor into northwest Iowa, which is what the NBM favors at this time. The second camp is a more southerly track, which brings the axis of heavier precipitation mainly near or along the Missouri River Valley. If the northerly track verifies, the forecasted highs in the 40s for south-central South Dakota would be in good shape and so mostly rain would be expected there, while snow would be the dominant precipitation type farther north to the I-90 corridor. If the southerly track verifies, then temperatures will be cold enough in south-central South Dakota and into the Sioux City metro to have snow be the dominant precipitation type, while farther north, dry air would likely win the day. Regardless, snow amounts will likely be on the lighter side for most of us as this will be a fairly quick moving system ; however, if a heavier band of snow does set up over the area, a few spots could pick up a quick 2-4." In terms of timing, precipitation looks to enter areas west of the James River Wednesday morning and spread eastward into the afternoon before exiting off to our east Wednesday night.

Highs rebound back above average on Thursday; although how warm we get will be dependent on what snowpack we end up with. Temperatures continue to warm into the day on Friday, with highs mainly in the 50s, though some 60s are possible along the Missouri River Valley. Like Thursday, if snow pack is more widespread than initially expected, temperatures will trend cooler. A high pressure system looks to move across the upper Midwest this weekend, and this will lead to colder temperatures heading into Saturday and Sunday. The weekend looks to feature highs back below freezing for many of us, with morning lows Sunday looking the coldest at this time, with widespread single digit temperatures. Guidance is in fairly decent agreement that we'll see another upper wave move across the region Sunday into Monday, and this could bring our next best chance of accumulating precipitation to our area. Just another system out in the long-range to watch for at this time as confidence in details remains low at this time with ensembles showing a broad 20-50% chance of measurable precipitation with this system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail, with mid and high clouds around the region. Winds have remained a bit breezy so far this evening with gusts around 25 knots. May see some gusts through tonight around 20 knots. LLJ and wind shifts will allow for LLWS across the area tonight and into Tuesday morning. Guidance still show that speed shear is marginal at times, but maintained mention due to directional shear. Direction will shift through tonight and into Tuesday morning from southerly to northwesterly as a front moves through. Gusts around 25-30 knots expected during the day, tapering off after sunset.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.