textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds will continue to very slowly decrease overnight, with light snow turning to flurries by daybreak.

- Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with wind chills dropping to the teens and 20s below zero by Saturday morning as winds still gust up to 35 mph by then.

- Additional light snow chances and strong winds return Sunday, with moderate to high (40-70%) chances of wind gusts over 45 mph mainly west of I-29.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Numerous horizontal convective roll snow showers have developed through the day and will continue to impact the area through the afternoon and evening as an upper-low noted on satellite over northern South Dakota pivots into the area. This snow shower activity will slowly diminish and push south heading into tonight, but be prepared for areas of reduced visibilities to continue after sundown in falling/blowing snow. For this reason, the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until midnight tonight for the whole area. Winds will slowly diminish through the evening and overnight hours, but any areas that have seen a half an inch of snow (but especially over an inch or more) will continue to see blowing/drifting snow into Saturday as winds remain elevated.

Otherwise, expect a cold night tonight with temperatures dropping to the single digits on either side of zero. Wind chills look to be in the teens and 20s below zero heading into Saturday morning, reaching as low as -25 at times. The coldest time frame looks to be between roughly 3 am to 12 pm, with winds diminishing quickly through the afternoon. Opted to forgo a Cold Weather Advisory at this due to the short-lived and patchy nature of wind chills of -25 or below, but keep in mind that winds will still be gusting up to 30-35 mph through tomorrow morning and so you will need to bundle up if heading out and about! If it looks like temperatures trend any colder or winds trend stronger for tomorrow morning, cold weather headlines may be needed. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon look to be only in the upper- single digits to low-10s. The daytime hours on Saturday look to be dry, though some guidance shows light snow developing mainly east of Highway-59 as the main upper low finally pivots off to our east. Chances of this are very low, less than 15%, but trends will be monitored.

Another cold front and upper-wave will move into our area tomorrow night. A few snow showers look to develop as warm air advection increases ahead of the frontal passage, but snowfall amounts look to be minimal with this activity, a dusting to perhaps a tenth or two mainly north of I-90. There looks to be another strong push of cold air advection behind this system as well, so expect another increase in winds on Sunday. NBM probabilities of wind gusts over 45 mph continue to be around the 40-70% range west of the James River, but these higher probabilities have expanded a bit father east to cover areas all the way to I-29. On Sunday, there will also be a similar pattern in place compared to what we're seeing today, so some more narrow snow bands may develop. At this time, it doesn't look to be as widespread and should be out of the area by the mid-afternoon. However, once again anyone caught in one of these narrow snow bands will see drops in visibility on Sunday, so continue to use extra caution on the roads.

After a brief return to seasonal temperatures on Sunday, look for another drop in temperatures Sunday night into Monday. Wind chills could once again dip to the 20s below zero over parts of the area, so continue to monitor the latest forecast. Temperatures stay below normal heading into Monday but will rebound to near normal temperatures by Tuesday. From there, uncertainty grows, but the pattern continues to favor near to just below normal temperatures through much of next week. Guidance is still split on another clipper system moving through the region during late Tuesday into Wednesday time frame, with the EC and Canadian models moving some snow into our area while the GFS keeps this activity northeast of us.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1009 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR to MVFR ceilings will continue to pivot southeast overnight tonight. Light snow also continues, but more concentrated snow is now moving into NW Iowa. Flurries to very light snow may linger into daybreak however. Winds remain northwest through the night, gusting over 30 mph at times.

Clouds prevail well into Saturday afternoon. Occasional flurries will also be possible with ceilings gradually rising to VFR levels through the day. Winds remain breezy from the northwest.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ071- 072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ013- 014.