textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered light snow showers will pass through the area this evening and night. Patchy freezing drizzle is possible for a few hours this evening before transitioning to all snow. Snowfall and ice amounts are expected to be very light with a light glaze of ice possible in a few locations and snowfall amounts of a quarter of an inch or less.

- Near to above normal temperatures will persist over the next several days with the warmest conditions expected by Thursday.

- With no major system ahead over the next week, expect mostly quiet conditions to persist. However, a pattern change could lead to increasing chances for precipitation beyond the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Low level stratus continues to sit over about half of the area this afternoon. A few light snow showers are currently present along highway-14 and pushing eastwards. Things will change over the next few hours as a shortwave trough dives out from North Dakota, developing light precipitation. Soundings indicate that the precipitation type will begin as very light freezing drizzle before quickly switching over to snow as the cooling from the wave saturated the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) a little more. Light snow showers will persist through the rest of the evening and majority of the overnight hours before pushing south of the area before sunrise tomorrow morning. Ice and snowfall amounts are expected to be very light with isolated ice amounts of a light glaze and snowfall amounts of a quarter of an inch or less. No wind is expected with the falling snow, so some reductions in visibility is expected, down to about about a mile at the worst.

Tuesday will be a quiet day with high temperatures a touch cooler, only warming to the upper teens to low 30s. Winds will remain light, making for a calm Winter day across the area. While the daylight hours will be dry, new chances for light snow will develop during the evening and overnight hours as additional weak shortwaves pass through the northwest flow aloft. Low level thermal profiles will be saturated but the DGZ looks to dry out during the overnight hours. Omega (upward motion) is also weak in and around the DGZ. The overall weak forcing for ascent will keep the coverage of precipitation more isolated to scattered at times. At the same time, any snowfall amounts look to again be quite light at below a half an inch. Given the timeframe of the falling snow, no impacts are expected to the evening commute.

Upper level ridging over the western CONUS will slightly amplify aloft and translate eastwards. This will warm temperatures up to the 20s, 30s, 40s, and even 50s. The warmest temperatures will come on Thursday as with highs in the 40s and low 50s. However, marginally breezy winds on Thursday will make temperatures feel a bit cooler. Low temperatures will fall to the teens and 20s overnight. With light to marginally breezy winds during the overnight hours, slightly cooler apparent temperatures are expected though these temperatures will be coldest in the single digits above zero.

The ensembles show that the previous upper level ridging persisting and continuing to shift eastwards through the weekend and into early next week. This ridging will keep above average temperatures going during this period of time. The ensembles continue to show warm temperatures up to 5 to 20 degrees above average during this period of time. This is mainly driven by the European and Canadian ensembles as the GFS ensemble is the coldest of the two. As of now, expect highs in the 30s, 40s, and 50s. The warmest temperatures will occur next Monday. Low temperatures will remain in the 20s. With the forecast area remaining initially downstream and then directly under the ridge, no precipitation is expected. Could see the pattern begin to change towards the very end of the forecast period as the ensembles and their deterministic counter parts are suggesting that troughing could develop across the west coast with ridging continuing to slide eastwards across the eastern CONUS. This could signal precipitation chances return to the forecast area well after the end of the forecast period. Details remain quite uncertain but is something to watch throughout this week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 544 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A mix of VFR to MVFR ceilings will gradually decrease to mostly MVFR with some IFR ceilings possible over south central South Dakota. This will prevail through the majority of the period, gradually improving near the end. Winds will be light and variable throughout the period.

Isolated to scattered light snow showers are moving into the region from the northwest. These showers will move southeast through the night into early Tuesday morning. Snow showers should be clear of the area by daybreak. Accumulations are expected to be light, generally less than a half an inch. Brief periods of patchy freezing drizzle is also possible, with only a light glaze expected.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.