textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire Weather will be at the forefront of concerns for the next several days with very dry fuels and very little in the way of precipitation expected.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most likely Thursday, Saturday and Sunday although each day will pose some threat.

- No impactful weather systems are expected through next weekend, but temperatures remain quite variable. Probabilities for more than 0.10" of rain remain less than 20% through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A fast moving, very weak piece of energy will move through the area today, producing brief showers and sprinkles. Elevated instability is very weak, but does exist. The sub cloud dry layer should keep precipitation amounts light and brief. Another weak wave will move through the area on Tuesday but has less weak instability and a very elevated dgz, so precipitation very unlikely. Beyond this, Wednesday into the weekend, a few weak waves will move through but as with today's and Tuesday's system, much is lacking so only very light precipitation is possible. No given 24 hour period through the week into the weekend indicates more than a 10 percent chance for a tenth of an inch or more of precipitation.

Otherwise, fire weather will be the main concern for the area this next week or so. Local fuels are very dry and without much in the way of precipitation for many areas this past couple of months fire starts and spread are more concerning than normal for this time of year. Tuesday and especially Wednesday will see above normal temperatures with afternoon relative humidity dropping to about 25 to 35 percent, a little lower on Wednesday. On the good side is winds will not be excessive with gusts more around 20 mph. This should set up high to very high fire danger both days.

Wednesday night into Thursday will see a cold front drop south and while temperatures will be cooler, they will still likely be above normal. With wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and afternoon humidity about 35 percent very high to potentially critical conditions are likely.

Friday will be cooler with temperatures near or below normal and winds down a bit, but humidities will still be fairly low around 30 percent or so.

Dry and very mild conditions continue into the weekend with a good potential for critical to near critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, relative humidity will be bout 25 to 35 percent and winds likely gusting to 20 to 25 mph.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Scattered very light showers and sprinkles will move across the area through early evening, but should not result in much if any accumulating rainfall. A few flurries will be possible with these showers as well. Winds will gust to 25 to 30 mph at times into the evening, otherwise outside of any showers, VFR conditions are expected.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.