textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong south winds today will result in patchy drifting of the fresh powdery snow. Watch for possible melt-refreeze as sun warms paved surfaces this afternoon. Enhanced southwest flow along/east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota tonight may locally reduce visibility in blowing snow as winds gusts over 40 mph into the evening.

- Quieter conditions with mild temperatures Monday-Wednesday, though fresh snowpack may impact how quickly temperatures warm.

- Wednesday afternoon into Thursday will be the next system with the potential for impacts across the area. More of a wind threat than precipitation threat but if any snow can fall with the cold surge, blowing snow will be possible as winds potentially gust to around 50 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Strong southerly flow will continue across the area into the evening, with patchy blowing and drifting snow possible. With sunshine this afternoon some drifting and refreezing on warmer road surfaces will be possible, creating unexpected slick spots at times. Otherwise warmer air will build into the area through the middle of the week. Monday and Tuesday will see very mild air build in just off the surface, with snow cover slowing the heating at the surface. Still much milder with highs in the 30s and 40s each day, the cooler readings over the deeper snowpack. A few 50+ degree readings will be possible in south central SD if the snow can melt. An abundance of dry air aloft will keep conditions dry. A small chance for some patchy fog and stratus Monday morning and again Tuesday morning. A fairly large area of stratus in central/western NE may advect northeast tonight and bring some IFR conditions to the area and further limit the warming potential.

A quick wave will move by to the north on Tuesday, swinging a cold front south Tuesday night, but the next more potent wave will follow on Wednesday night and bring southerly flow back quickly during the day Wednesday. Southerly winds will likely gust around 35 mph at times. This may limit highs a bit on Wednesday as the area recovers from the cooler air mass. Still looking at highs in the 30s and 40s.

This more potent wave will move into ND Wednesday night and deepen, then shift rapidly southeast into MN Thursday morning. The timing is a bit faster than previous runs and the cold air and very strong winds come barreling into the area on Thursday morning. This will likely bring mild overnight lows, then falling temperatures through the day on Thursday. With the current snowpack not blowable after a few mild days we will need some new snow leading into this cold surge and strong winds to get any blowing snow. Regardless, wind gusts around 50 mph appear fairly likely Wednesday night into Thursday and this pattern could result in another high wind warning.

Keeping up with this fast moving pattern, strong southerly flow will become reestablished on Friday with temperatures back to around normal. Then another cold front swings through Friday night into Saturday, but for now not looking like a strong cold front.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Latest satellite imagery shows high level cirrus pushing into the area from the north. A small area of MVFR stratus resides over KFSD up to KBKX to KDVP and KOTG. This area of stratus is quickly pushing northwards and shrinking in size. At the same time, there is a small area of LIFR ceilings from K6E5 and KMDS though it is not expanding in size. Will monitor this low level stratus's trends over the next couple of hours. Elevated winds persist across the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota where gusts occasionally exceed 35 knots. Localize blowing snow remains possible though winds will be weakening through the overnight hours.

Much lighter west winds will take over for the day tomorrow with speeds of 5-10 knots expected. Winds look to go light and variable at the end of the TAF period. This may lead to patchy fog developing to end the period but confidence is too low to include in a TAF at this time.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.