textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect slick travel conditions early this morning from recent freezing rain/snow or freezing of standing water on roads. Conditions should improve through the morning-midday as temperatures climb back above freezing.

- Above normal temperatures will dominate the week ahead with near record highs possible on Sunday. A few chances of light rain and/or snow, but no significant systems are expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 640 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Still seeing a few reports of very light freezing drizzle and/or flurries from the shallow stratus layer, so have added a mention beneath the stratus for the next 2-3 hours. While we are not expecting any additional accumulation of ice or snow, those out and about may see a few flakes or spits of drizzle on the windshield.

That said, since the threat of accumulating freezing drizzle and snow has moved off to the east, have canceled the remainder of our Winter Weather Advisory, which covered areas along/west of Highway 71.

Issued at 350 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Weakening band of light snow has been making steady progress eastward across the forecast area early this morning. Back edge is near a Yankton to Sioux Falls to Ivanhoe line as of 3 AM and current timing along with the gradual weakening trend takes it mostly east of the Highway 71 corridor by 7-8 AM CST. Have been chipping away at the Winter Weather Advisory as the snow ends and will likely cancel additional counties over the next few hours as the snow continues to trek east.

This should be followed by gradual clearing of the stratus, and the added sunshine along with a residual mild air mass should help melt much of the ice/light snow which has fallen over the past 24 hours by the end of the day.

No significant changes to the remainder of the forecast early this morning, with above to well above normal temperatures expected through the week ahead. Sunday continues to look like the warmest day, with near record highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Current records which could be in jeopardy on Sunday are:

March 8: KFSD: 69/2020 KSUX: 71/2020 KHON: 71/1900

The mild quasi-zonal flow early in the week becomes more amplified by Tuesday-Wednesday. This will bring low chances for light rain or snow as we move into midweek, along with less warm temperatures for Wednesday, perhaps holding in the 30s in some locations.

Decent consensus in another brief surge of warming Thursday, but overall lower confidence in late week temperatures as the range between the 10th and 90th percentiles in the NBM grows as large as 30-40 degrees. Differences likely stem from variance in the strength and timing of a clipper dropping southeast toward the western Great Lakes and the associated cold front. Not looking like a significant precipitation-maker in our area, but light rain/snow may accompany the cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Model soundings continue to hang on to the warm layer aloft, leading to mainly liquid precipitation in most locations through late afternoon into early evening. The exception will be near and west of the James Valley where the warm layer aloft is cold enough that mainly snow is expected. For the majority of the afternoon most locations will see mainly drizzle with a deep saturated layer in the low levels and the higher dgz too dry to support precipitation production. By late afternoon the main wave will lift northeast and bring in slightly higher lapse rates which allows for some weak instability at the top of the moist layer and should allow for bands of precipitation to develop. With the warm layer aloft in place and near to below freezing temperatures at the surface freezing rain will be the main precipitation type, although some sleet will be possible as colder air starts to settle in mid to late evening. By late evening as the wave is shifting east, the warm layer cools and most precipitation should gradually transition from mixed to snow.

Away from the wintry precipitation, spotty showers and thunderstorms will be possible in mainly northwest IA this afternoon into the evening and could produce very isolated small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. The challenge to produce any severe weather will be a fairly elevated freezing level, about 9000 kft, and CAPE values only running about 300-500 J/kg.

Much drier air pours in later tonight into Saturday morning which will bring an end to the precipitation potential. A fast moving ridge of high pressure will move through Saturday, which will bring southwest flow to the area through the afternoon. This should allow for mild temperatures with some 50s west of I-29 and 40s near and east of I-29.

Westerly flow remains in place Saturday night into Sunday night, which will lead to some very mild conditions. Highs on Sunday should be well into the 60s in most locations, with a few 70s possible.

Faster westerly flow aloft remains in place through the week, which should lead to some ups and downs in temperatures with mainly dry conditions. There will be some minor chances for precipitation with Monday night into Tuesday the better chance. Overall highs will generally be from about 45 to 55 Monday through Friday, with Thursday seeing the best chance to get back into the 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Low MVFR-IFR stratus is expected to slowly erode from west to east through midday, leaving VFR conditions across the forecast area through the end of the TAF period.

Northwest winds still gusting 20-30kt at the start of the period (near/east of I-29) will ease through the morning, with winds swinging around to the southwest this afternoon/evening. A sharp surface-based inversion develops this evening, and may see brief low-level wind shear as westerly winds atop the inversion increase to around 40kt. However, confidence in the persistence or timing of LLWS at a specific TAF site is too low to include at this time.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.