textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warm into next week, with highs climbing 15 to 25 degrees above normal, and potential for record warm low temperatures Tuesday.

- Gusty winds early this week may bring slightly elevated fire danger to the region.

- A late week pattern shift will bring slightly colder temperatures and more wind to the region. Risks for light snow arrive by Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

THIS MORNING: Quiet and cold conditions continue across the Tri- State area as stratus lingers over portions of SW Minnesota. A few flurries may linger in this stratus, but will shift east by daybreak. Further west we're beginning to see an increase in mid- high cloud cover in response to increasing low-lvl warm advection spreading eastward.

TODAY/TONIGHT: low-lvl temperatures spread eastward through the day, with surface winds shifting to the south and southwest in the afternoon. While some mid-upr clouds will be in the region, we should still see above normal temperatures in the 30s/40s with some 50s in south central South Dakota. Winds weaken slightly overnight, even shifting more to the west at times. This should result in rather warm overnight low temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Warm westerly low-lvl flow continues through Tuesday, with strong signals for high temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal, and an increased potential for record high minimum temperatures Tuesday. A shortwave moving through Dakotas Tuesday night will bring stronger cold advection through the Plains, but also the risk for scattered very light rain/snow showers overnight. With the increase of wind gusts Tuesday, we'll have slightly elevated fire danger along and southwest of the James River valley.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: A long wave trough digs into the eastern half of the Lower 48 for the second half of the work week. With the Tri- State area falling on the western side of this trough we're likely to see considerable temperature swings into next weekend. As far as precipitation is concerned, we'll watch a stronger shortwave dropping southward through the Plains by late Thursday into Friday. Given the orientation of the long wave trough, and mostly meridional flow, this would favor the greatest light snow risks along and east of the James River valley. Ensemble probabilities for any measurable precipitation are quite high (>80%), but when looking at meaningful totals more than 0.10" those same probabilities fall to only 30-40%. Quite a bit of wind will also accompany this system, with 40+ mph wind potential late Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 506 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions with light winds expected into Sunday. Winds will prevail more from the south to southwest by mid-day, occasionally gusting to 20 mph into early evening. VFR conditions with lingering cirrus will continue into Monday morning.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.