textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain above normal for the entire 7 day forecast. Temperatures may reach 20 to 30 degrees above normal nearly every day into next week.

- Dry conditions and occasionally breezy afternoons may lead to low end fire danger risks into next week, more focused Sunday and Monday.

- No major storm systems on the horizon; however, light rain/snow risks arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Precipitation amounts remain very light, with probabilities of more than 0.10" remaining less than 10%. Any snow will be less than 0.5", and temperatures above freezing will limit the longevity of the snow cover.

UPDATE

Issued at 826 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Temperatures have been falling a bit more quickly than previously expected with efficient radiational cooling. Lowered tonight's lows by a couple of degrees across the area with cirrus clearing and winds starting to become very light to calm. Although very patchy valley fog cannot be ruled out tonight with light winds and clearing skies, confidence in occurrence is decreasing, with 10.18z HREF guidance trending down in probabilities so removed mention.

Refined pops for Wednesday night into early Thursday, although 11.00z CAMs are coming in with less precipitation coverage than the earlier model runs. So further refinements may be needed as more of the 11.00z data comes in. Regardless, any precipitation is expected to remain light, with ensemble guidance of over 0.01" around 40-60% across the area (trending down slightly from the afternoon forecast package) and probability of over 0.10" remains less than 10%.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: Stratus continues to slowly erode this afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise into the 40s in many locations. Gusty morning winds continue to weaken as the influence of high pressure drifting through central and western South Dakota arrives.

TONIGHT: Light and variable winds are expected through the night as high pressure drifts eastward. The return of mid-lvl warm advection may trigger scattered mid-upr level cloud cover. The dry ground and initial clearing of skies could lead to a quick drop in temperatures, but increasing clouds may serve to stabilize that drop. If temperatures fall far enough, then patchy fog may develop along or east of I-29.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Heights rise early on Wednesday, with low-lvl warm advection increasing through the morning hours. A breezy southerly wind should aid in pushing temperatures upwards quickly in the morning, with afternoon highs again pushing into the lower to middle 50s. Have trended highs just above the NBM deterministic and towards the 75th. Afternoon wind gusts exceeding the 20-25 mph mark could lead to high GFDI values in most locations, with patchy areas of very high levels near the Missouri River.

Mid-lvl warm advection increases after dark Wednesday, as mid-lvl vorticity approaches from the west northwest. Based on the QPF output from 12Z models, moisture convergence still remains marginal ahead of the wave, suggesting that precipitation may struggle to develop initially. However, soundings would indicate greater chances at gradual top-down saturation overnight and into Thursday morning over the Tri-State area. Surface temperatures remain near or above freezing as the lift arrives, with low-lvl column temperatures suggesting nearly 50/50 probabilities of rain/snow. The lowest 500 ft of the atmosphere may be the final determination of the p-type, but have hedged a little bit towards snow and adjusted population temperatures to push p-type in that direction. QPF amounts will be light however with 60-70% ensemble probabilities of QPF >0.01" and less than 20% probabilities of >0.10" focused mostly over far eastern SODAK, southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. NBM percentile QPF backs this thought up as well, with 25th percentile of a trace to the 90th percentile of 0.08". With precipitation moving east by mid- day and temperature continuing to rise into the 40s any snow that falls won't linger for long.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: We'll remain in a bit of a muddy northwesterly mid- lvl flow pattern at the end of the week and into this weekend. Not much in the way of meaningful weather impacts however, outside of some increased cloud cover. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 50s both days with both the LREF and NBM showing a narrow spread in the 25/75th of only 4-5 degrees. Should clouds avoid us, Saturday could be a very warm day with current deterministic NBM sitting closer to the 90th than the 75th.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: No shortage of warm air into next week as mid-lvl ridging increases over the Central CONUS as a West Coast trough arrives. Surface winds turn more southerly by Sunday and continue into Monday. While not strong (20 to 30 mph gusts), we may see slightly elevated fire danger Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are likely to remain well into the 50s to start next week, with the NBM mean and deterministic forecast shifted well to the left towards the 75 percentile suggesting greater potential for even warmer temperatures. At this time, a look at climate records early next week would suggest that we'll begin to approach, but likely not exceed, record values.

CLIMATE TIDBIT OF THE DAY: Sioux Falls is already sitting at 5 days of highs 45 degrees or warmer this month. With at least the next 7 days forecast above that threshold, this would place February 2026 with the 2nd most 45+ degree days in recorded history (18 in 2024). If we could somehow reach 45 degrees today, the potential consecutive streak of days at 45+ degrees would break the consecutive record of 12 in a row set back in 1981.

Similar statistics are found at Sioux City with the most 45+ high temperature dates at 19 set in 2024 and at Huron the record is 15 in 1931.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period, with high clouds prevailing. Can't rule out some patchy valley fog overnight, but probabilities of fog at TAF sites remain low enough to omit mention. Light winds tonight will turn southerly Wednesday morning with gusts of 15 to 20 knots along the higher elevation areas of the Buffalo Ridge and across south central SD into the afternoon and early evening.

Low precipitation chances return to south central SD and the southern MO River Valley toward the end of and after this forecast period, with chances too low to mention at this time.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.