textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A PATTERN CHANGE AHEAD: After one last day of milder conditions, temperatures will trend colder into the weekend with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and overnight lows in the 20s.

- MOSTLY DRY INTO THE WEEKEND: Besides an occasional sprinkle through Friday, most areas should remain dry well into the weekend.

- A MILD RETURN: Mild temperatures will return by early next week with daily highs in the low to upper 50s.

UPDATE

Issued at 320 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

We're continuing to see things clear out this morning behind a progressive mid-level wave. Besides some lingering clouds throughout the day, more mild conditions are expected with highs mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Northerly surface winds will strengthen as the SPG tightens leading to gusts between 20-30 mph through the early evening. Otherwise, can't rule out a few diurnally driven sprinkles by this afternoon as a ribbon of vorticity (lift) progresses through the area. Nonetheless, accumulations would be very light if any. Lastly, an influx of arctic air behind a cold front will decrease our overall temperatures starting tonight. This will result in highs mainly in the mid-30s to low 40s through the weekend with overnight lows mainly in the 20s with the coldest conditions Thursday night into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A shortwave trough continues to push into the Northern Plains this afternoon. No rain is associated with the wave at this time but it is bringing thicker, high level cirrus with it. This cirrus has kept temperatures on track with highs maxing out in the 50s and 60s. As the wave pushes through the forecast area tonight, thermal profiles will cool to saturation in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). However, thermal profiles below the DGZ look to be dry. Thus, little if any rain will reach the surface. If it does, it will be no more than some sprinkles. A cold front will push through the area tonight due to it being tied to the wave. The cloud cover and elevated winds behind the front will keep low temperatures on the warm side with lows only falling to the upper 30s and low 40s.

Temperatures will remain cooler than what we have seen from the weekend and Monday with highs falling to the upper 40s and 50s on Wednesday. A second cold front and associated push of cold air advection (CAA) will push through the area on Wednesday, resulting in temperatures falling to near normal for the rest of the work week. Lows will bottom out in the 20s to low 30s with highs only reaching into the 40s. Winds will be light on Thursday as surface high pressure pushes through the area. But breezy winds look to return to the area along and west of the James River on Friday. This area looks to see wind chills below 40F for the day.

Temperatures look to moderate to near to slightly above normal for the weekend as upper level ridging pushes eastwards. Highs will remain in the 40s to low 50s with lows falling to the 30s. Saturday will be dry but a shortwave trough will push through the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some wrap around moisture is possible from this system as is somewhat supported by the ensembles. They show a close to zero probability for rain totals to exceed a tenth of an inch. The GFS ensemble is the outlier as it shows the highest probabilities up to about a 40% chance for exceeding the same amount of QPF. If any rain does make it to the forecast area, it looks to be very light at this time.

Temperature trends look to persist into early next week. Medium range guidance continues to vary regarding how the upper level pattern will evolve through early next week. Broad troughing along the western CONUS could push eastwards and bring chances for rain back to the area. Too uncertain to make any changes to the forecast but something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A few very light showers/sprinkles continue to move east along with a cold front early this morning, but visibilities are not expected to drop in any rain. MVFR stratus looks to develop mainly north of I-90 by the mid morning hours today, lasting through at least the mid afternoon. Enough confidence to include MVFR conditions at KHON, though the greatest uncertainty remains whether or not this stratus will tend to be more SCT or BKN.

Breezy conditions have followed behind the frontal passage especially in south-central South Dakota where gusts have been up to 25 kts and slightly higher. These higher wind gusts will tend to move through the Missouri River Valley and into northwest Iowa through the morning hours today before tapering off somewhat into the afternoon. A secondary surge of wind gusts to around 25 kts will be possible in the early evening over southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa. Winds will be out of the northwest through most of the period, turning more northeasterly to end it.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.