textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry precipitation expected north of I-90 tonight into Thursday. A bigger threat for sleet and freezing rain than snow. Winter Weather Advisory for Highway 14 corridor and SD Highway 34/MN Highway 30.

- Much needed rainfall will move into the area today and continue into Thursday morning. Much of the area will see a half an inch to an inch of rain/total liquid precipitation.

- Isolated thunderstorm potential late-Thursday night early Friday morning in mainly northwest IA. Severe weather unlikely but some small hail would be possible.

- Friday is a tricky day with the potential for freezing rain and sleet. The better chances for snow should be mostly northwest of the area. Enough of an icing threat that some minor to moderate impacts will be possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 530 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Taking a look across the area, we're starting to see some light returns develop across central and northcentral Nebraska as of 5 am this morning out ahead of our main wave. However, most of these returns aren't reaching the ground quite yet due to drier air in the lower levels according to soundings. Otherwise, things remain on track for widespread precipitation today. Not many changes were noted from the 00z to 06z runs of guidance, current thinking is we'll see the initial push of rain and/snow by mid to late morning with precipitation coverage becoming more widespread by mid to late afternoon. Areas of rain/snow will begin to transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet overnight as temperatures cool.

Still looking like the main area of interest for the wintry mix continues to be east-central SD and southwestern MN and this is well- agreed upon between deterministic and ensemble guidance. However, overall amounts are not. Just looking at the HREF's FRAM guidance; the Buffalo Ridge and east-central SD are now bullseye for a 0.25" to 0.50" an inch of freezing rain/sleet. While some of this will be mitigated by warmer ground temperatures, i'm not thoroughly convinced that they'll get out of this scott-free. While the main question is how much will accumulate, still can't give a solid answer given the 1. longer duration of the precip overnight and 2. the potential for increasing rates by Thursday morning. One thing is for certain though, given the higher elevations somewhere is going to be like a skating ring during the early morning commute thus travel impacts are expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Cool high pressure moves by to the north tonight which will allow easterly flow at the surface to develop. With winds remaining at about 5 to 15 mph through the night, temperatures should not drop off significantly, falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s in most locations.

Moisture aloft increases through the day on Wednesday while low level moisture lags a bit. By afternoon the low level moisture starts to creep into areas west of I-29. Upper level support moves into the area by late Wednesday afternoon with some weak destabilization which should lead to scattered showers. Given expected surface temperatures, all rain is anticipated although some snow would be possible north of I-90 and maybe a bit of a mix closer to highway 14 towards sunset. At least through sunset amounts north of I-90 will likely be limited by this lower level dry air as the lift and precipitation slowly overcome it.

The strongest lift will be roughly 10 pm Wednesday night through 6 am Thursday morning. Weak instability south of I-90 aids the strong lift as the upper level wave moves from central NE into southwest MN during this time. The biggest challenge during this time will be surface temperatures which will dictate the rain vs. freezing rain, but also the warmest T aloft which will dictate freezing rain vs. sleet. Currently much of southeast MN and nearby locations will see the best chance for the warm layer aloft and surface temperatures creeping down to 30-32 degrees. The latest Nam and HRRR both indicating about 0.25" to 0.50" of freezing rain in these locations. Given the warm ground temperatures, much of the affects may end up on elevated surfaces, which would include power lines. While winds are not excessive, gusts of 15 to 20 mph look likely. Given some confidence that surface temperatures will remain just above 32 with the potential for latent heat release with moderate rainfall and the latest Nam and Consshort all indicating temperatures hovering between 32 to 34 for much of the area most susceptible for icing.

Precipitation chances will linger through Thursday afternoon, but anything that falls Thursday afternoon will be on the lighter side.

A break in activity is expected late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight hours before the effects of the next wave spread into the area. Late Thursday night, elevated instability (CAPE values 500-1000 J/kg) moves into in northwest IA, far southeast SD and northeast NE late Thursday night into Friday morning. While severe weather is not expected, if that amount of instability does come to fruition, some dime sized hail would be possible with the freezing level around 9000 ft.

After the morning elevated convective push, the next trend to keep an eye on will be dry slotting. The models are hinting that areas near and east of I-29 may end up with little in the way of saturation aloft through the afternoon and without much convective help, these locations may remain mainly dry during this time. Will keep the chance for precipitation in however as confidence on a total dry slot shut down of precipitation is not there. The main concern with this system will be the potential again for freezing rain and sleet. Confidence definitely not high enough for any headlines, especially given the Wednesday night/Thursday system, but something to keep an eye on trends. Will also watch the trends of some strong lift in central SD which would likely be mostly snow. This would affect especially the Chamberlain and Huron locations.

Cold and windy on Saturday with a lingering chance for light snow. Generally looking at highs in the 30s to lower 40s and wind chills in the teens.

Northwest flow aloft remains in place Sunday through Tuesday with near seasonal to below normal temperatures expected. The chances for precipitation remain minimal during this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will transition to MVFR and lower by late afternoon mainly due to increasing precipitation chances. Conditions will slowly deteriorate from late morning to early afternoon as areas of rain and snow become more widespread promote MVFR ceilings. Ceilings will continue to lower into the evening promoting IFR to LIFR conditions overnight. Though mainly rain is expected across the area, a transition to a wintry mix around 05z-06z will promote light icing across portions of the highway-14 corridor and into southwestern MN. Otherwise, northeasterly surface winds will become mainly easterly by this evening with gusts between 20-25kts possible at times to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM CDT Thursday for SDZ038>040-055-056. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ071-072-080-081-097. IA...None. NE...None.