textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures through much of this week will be on the warm side of average for this time of year, with highs in the upper 40s and 50s, and lows in the 30s to mid 40s.

- A period of breezy to gusty winds are expected today through the middle of next week. Areas along and west of I-29 will see frequent gusts of 25-35 mph with occasional gusts up to 45 mph possible on Tuesday.

- Continued dry and windy conditions may result in elevated fire danger through Tuesday.

- More active weather looks likely late next week, possibly centered around Friday/Saturday. Rain should be the main precipitation type with an isolated thunderstorm possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

No significant changes to the forecast early this morning, with clouds persisting roughly along/west of Huron-Mitchell-Lake Andes. This along with somewhat stronger southeast-south winds has been holding early morning temperatures in the mid-upper 30s, while clear areas to the east with lighter winds have falling into the 20s to lower 30s.

Warmer nights are ahead, though, with persistent southerly winds keeping lows largely remaining above freezing through much of this week. No significant changes to the forecast details as discussed below.

Issued at 826 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Mid-level stratus clouds continue to fill in as a narrow band of modest moisture advects in on southerly winds. The band is trapped in between the very slowly departing upper ridge and surface high and an upper trough over the central Rockies. This will keep stratus contained over the foothills and east into central Nebraska and South Dakota. Lows under stratus will be slightly warmer in the low to mid 30s. East under the clear skies will see lows fall to the low 20s. Through the day clouds may expand as far east as the Highway 81 corridor. Clouds will be scattered to broken so peaks of sunshine are still likely.

Gusty winds will expand east after daybreak Sunday. As mentioned in the DISCUSSION below, the advancing trough is compressing the SPG between the slow to exit ridge to the east. At the surface southerly winds will increase through the morning with afternoon gusts of 15- 25 mph for western Minnesota and Iowa. Winds increase as you move west from 25-35 mph. Soundings indicate mixing through the 900 mb layer, tapping into slightly warmer temperatures aloft. Mixing these down to the surface will result in highs on the warm side of average for this time of year in the upper 40s to mid 50s in central South Dakota (average is mid 40s). Gusty winds and dry conditions continue into the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Tonight through Tuesday will see a battle of low pressure across the Rockies and a stubborn, slow to exit high pressure over the midwest and Great Lakes area. What this means for the local area is a tightening surface pressure gradient through Tuesday and above normal temperatures. Given the stronger winds aloft and the tightening gradient, southerly winds will likely gusts to 25 to 35 mph on Sunday and Monday and possibly as high as 45 to 50 mph on Tuesday. The increased winds are in response to the low pressure over the Rockies shifting across the Western High Plains.

With precipitation not expected during this time, grasses will continue to cure after a wet September/October as well as soils likely losing some saturation as well. This suggests that we may see some elevated fire weather concerns Sunday, Monday and especially Tuesday. The good news is the majority of the harvest is over so fire starts will be less likely.

As the trough to the west deepens and moves eastward, southerly flow increase Tuesday, increasing warm advection across the region. While some stratocumulus will be possible, instability is pretty much non-existent and the dgz remains dry, so precipitation is not expected, or will remain very isolated.

Strong southerly flow remains in place into Wednesday as a stronger piece of energy ejects into the Northern and Central Plains. We will see better saturation within the dgz as well as the potential for some very weak instability, so some very late afternoon and evening showers will be possible. This will likely be a short period of lift as a strong dry punch follows this mid and upper level wave, shutting down precipitation chances for Thursday.

Once this wave passes the next, stronger wave will move into the area Friday into Saturday. While agreement on the finer, and important details is somewhat low, most models and model runs are bringing this stronger energy into the area. The latest models and ensembles as well as AI output are all hinting at a good chance for a half an inch of rain or more to the area Friday into Saturday, with the better chance Friday night. Given the steep mid level lapse rates some elevated convection will also be possible which could focus these higher rainfall amounts into a smaller area. As for precipitation type, for now with a weak northern stream upper level jet, warmer low level air should surge north and remain in place helping to keep the main precipitation type rain. As colder air spills in behind a brief changeover to snow would be possible but for now this does not look like it will bring any moderate or major winter weather impacts to the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

West of I-29, southerly winds increase this morning, with gusts of 20-30kt becoming more prevalent through the afternoon. These gusts may sporadically continue after sunset, but are not expected to be as widespread or persistent. Along and east of I-29, light winds at the start of the period will also become south-southeast, but not as strong with occasional gusts 15-20kt, perhaps up to 25kt along the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota.

As surface winds decouple overnight, a modest southwesterly low level jet will produce an area of low level wind shear through the Missouri River Valley, including around KSUX where the decoupled wind will favor a more southeasterly direction.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with an area of 5-6kft AGL ceilings west of Highway 81 expected to diminish through the morning. Low probability that IFR stratus could develop into portions of southeast SD late in the period, but appears more favored after 16/12Z.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.