textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures and lower humidity are expected for the rest of the work week, with temperatures climbing back to the 90s next weekend.

- The majority of this week will be dry. Possible exceptions may bring light showers to portions of the Missouri River Valley Tuesday night-Wednesday, with a broader 30-50% chance of showers or a few non-severe storms late this week.

UPDATE

Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Taking a look across the area, quieter conditions persist this morning as cooler air continues to funnel in behind yesterday's cold front. From here, expect the quieter conditions to persist for the day with highs only peaking in the mid 70s to mid 80s with northerly surface winds and lingering cold air advection (CAA) in place aloft. Otherwise, we'll continue to see some wildfire smoke aloft as well mainly along and west of the James River Valley with limited surface impacts. Lastly, the forecast remains on track for a few scattered showers along the Missouri River valley tonight as a weak wave slides through. While severe weather is not expected, pockets of moderate rainfall will be possible along with an occasional rumble of thunder.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: A cool front continues to push southeast through the forecast area early this afternoon. Behind the front, elevated moisture may continue to produce isolated showers or thunderstorms driven by a narrow corridor of vorticity sinking through central Minnesota. This activity is likely to remain elevated as it moves into south central Minnesota. Eventually it may become more surface based as it moves into northern Iowa. Secondary ACCAS or isolated thunderstorms further west into Central South Dakota are expected to continue to struggle southeast. Elsewhere, moisture pooling ahead of the boundary along with thermal compression ahead of the front will push heat index values into the 100s along and south of I-90 this afternoon. Drier air advecting behind the passage of the front should lead to dropping heat index values after 3pm from north to south, with all headlines on schedule to end by 7-8pm.

The southward progression of the boundary will continue into the evening reaching a line from Norfolk to Sioux City To Estherville by 4-5pm. Soundings along the boundary continue to look very capped, with much less forcing generally expected over the front. It's the ACCAS over central SD that we'll need to keep an eye on early this evening, as it does have some potential to intensify slightly as it reaches Highway 20 and could become surface based. IF upscale growth could happen, the combination of shear and instability could signal some golf ball sized hail and 60 mph winds. Again though, this looks like a VERY limited area in time and space this evening.

TONIGHT: Dew points will crash overnight, signaling a return of cooler and drier air. Overnight lows may fall well into the 60s by daybreak Tuesday.

TUESDAY: A beautiful day is anticipated on Tuesday with Canadian high pressure sinking southward. High temperatures only in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the 50s will signal a great.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: The semi-northwest flow through the second half of the week will keep cooler temperatures in the region through the rest of the week. Highs are expected to reach the lower 80s each day. A weak perturbation in this flow pattern leaves the Central Rockies early Wednesday. Most guidance tracks this wave through Nebraska, but a few solutions could bring light rain risks into mid- day Wednesday along and west of the James River valley. A second wave arrives by Thursday night into Friday, but again, uncertainty in track keeps the risks for any precipitation less than 30% in most locations along or west of I-29.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: We'll again see rising temperatures by next weekend, as confidence is high in an expanding mid-lvl ridge through the Plains. This ridge however will be more suppressed than the one that has just left the region, signaling a shorter surge in temperatures to the 90s/100s, but also allowing a ridge rider or two to move through the Plains by the end of the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Mostly clear conditions should continue throughout the day with no aviation concerns. Otherwise, northerly winds will gradually increase into the afternoon with gusts between 20-30 mph expected.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.