textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended stretch of very warm temperatures is ahead, with daily temperature departures of 20 to 30 degrees above normal, and potential for a few records into the middle of next week.

- Light rain/snow will continue to remain possible into Thursday morning, though measurable precipitation probabilities continue to remain low. Any snow that falls will quickly melt.

- Warm and breezy conditions Sunday through Tuesday may bring elevated fire danger risks.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

THIS Afternoon: Cirrus continues to spill into the region this afternoon. Surface winds remain southerly which is once again helping to push high temperatures through the 40s and into the 50s. Any high GFDI values are confined to areas along and south of I-90.

TONIGHT: We'll begin to see some low-lvl moisture convergence increase and focus along and south of I-90 later this evening. This is in response to a subtle area of vorticity sliding eastward through the Plains. Model trends continue to show downtrends in both lift and QPF, partially due to a very dry sub-cloud layer below 8000 ft AGL. CPD plots are not aggressive at all, suggesting that only a small area could see enough lift to saturate to the ground. That said, some CAMs still do indicate potential for top-down saturation, but variation in placement of these bands strongly indicates that QPF amounts will focus towards a hundredth or two at most. At this time, no major changes to the overnight forecast, keeping PoPs for measurable QPF between 20-40%. Any snowflakes that do mix in or reach the ground should melt quickly as temperatures remain near or above freezing.

THURSDAY: Some guidance does linger lower stratus into NW Iowa/Minnesota early Thursday, but expecting skies to clear in most areas. Despite the light winds through the day there is no cold advection behind the departing wave which will again allow highs to climb into the 50s.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Warming will continue through the upcoming weekend as a broad mid-lvl ridge persists through the CONUS. A stronger southern stream system passing through the Central and Southern Plains Saturday could push mid-high level clouds further north, and may have a slight impact on temperatures. Absent this impact, we should see daily highs well into the 50s Friday through Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, eventually the increase in 925:850 mb winds through the day will lead to a mixdown of 20-30 mph wind gusts in the afternoon. This increased wind, combined with warm and dry low- lvl air could push GFDI values towards the high to very high levels.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: A slight pattern shift tries to develop early next week as long wave troughing that forms over the West Coast begins to send energy eastward. This increasing troughing will push 850:700 mb temperatures towards and above the 90th percentile and towards the 99th percentile of climatology focused around mid-February. The result will be that Monday is expected to be a very warm with southerly flow pushing highs into the 50s and even 60s. Uncertainty grows a bit further for Tuesday and Wednesday as lee-side cyclogenesis develop in the Nebraska/South Dakota area and tracks northeast. With the bulk of the upper trough passing northeast of the CWA, the track of this surface low will determine the degree of warmth Tuesday and Wednesday. This uncertainty is more apparent in the NBM 25/75th temperature percentiles which show a 12 to 15+ degree spread in potential ranging from the mid/upr 60s to the low/mid 50s. Looking at climate records in comparison to the deterministic forecast indicates potential for several overnight high minimum temperature records, along with potential high temperature records. Anticipate rather gusty winds in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe given the increase in troughing in the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Clouds are flowing in as mid-level moisture and WAA increases. Soundings indicates gradual saturation from the top down through this evening into the overnight. As it does so ceilings will decrease to low VFR. Significant dry air beneath the cloud layer will work to prevent most precipitation from reaching the ground, However, areas to the south of I-90 may see some light rain showers in the very early hours before sunrise, possibly with a few snowflakes mixed in. Under these showers brief MVFR ceilings are possible, but confidence is too low to include them in the TAF. Ceilings improve as clouds move out to the east Thursday morning.

Slightly breezy southerly winds will become light to light and variable near sunrise Thursday morning. Winds will be somewhat variable during the day as a weak surface low pressure passes along the South Dakota and Nebraska border. By Thursday afternoon winds in northwestern Iowa will be southerly and gusting 15-20 kts, rapidly decreasing after sunset.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.