textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record to record temperatures persist through Tuesday. Average highs will be +25 to +35 degrees above average.

- Additional chances for high to very high fire danger are expected by Tuesday and Wednesday as stronger winds return. Areas of greater concern are near and south of I-90 with low precipitation chances focused north of I-90.

- Chances of accumulating snowfall return on Thursday into Thursday night, with low to moderate (30-50%) chances of snowfall amounts of at least one inch. Uncertainty remains high on exact amounts due to questions on the track and evolution of the system, but be prepared for the potential for minor travel impacts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

It's been another warm and pleasant mid-February day out there! Clouds will increase through tonight as our next storm system approaches the area, and this will prevent any fog from developing like we saw earlier this morning. It will also mean a warm night is ahead, with temperatures only dropping to the mid-30s to low-40s by daybreak tomorrow. A trough will eject out of the northern Rockies as a surface low over the northern Plains deepens. We'll remain on the warm side of the system, so any precipitation that falls during the day on tomorrow will be in the form of liquid. Guidance shows some light rain moving through the area tomorrow morning, but ample dry air in the sub-cloud layer will prevent most of this from reaching the ground. Still, a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out tomorrow morning.

As we head into tomorrow afternoon and evening, the cold front associated with this system will move through the area and provide some lift for some showers to develop. The best chance of this occurring will be along and east of I-29, and these showers will move into an environment characterized by 200-500 J/kg of MUCAPE, so a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Some wrap-around moisture from this system may clip mainly the Highway-14 corridor (20-40% chance) tomorrow night into Wednesday. As temperatures cool behind the front, some of this may fall as a few snowflakes, but impacts are not expected. Winds will become breezy once again on Tuesday as this system deepens over the area, but more on how these winds and how this will affect our fire weather threat tomorrow and again on Wednesday will be discussed in the Fire Weather Section later on in this discussion.

Attention turns to our next storm system moving in Thursday into Thursday night. Fairly good agreement amongst guidance that a low pressure system will drift across the central Plains, with the EC showing the system closing off closer to our area while other deterministic models have this moving through our area as an open wave and then closing off to our east over eastern Iowa. Another piece of uncertainty will come from where the system tracks, with the NAM keeping most of the precipitation south of the area, while most guidance gives our area at least some precipitation. Colder temperatures should be in place by the time this system moves through, so any precipitation would likely fall as snow. In terms of amounts, guidance varies with anywhere between a dusting and a few inches of snow. With so much uncertainty on the track and development of this system, we'll need to look at snowfall total probabilities to give us an idea of how much snow we may see out of this system. The EC ensemble is leading the way with snowfall chances, which shows a broad 50-80% chance of at least an inch of snow and a 25-55% chance of at least 4 inches. Other ensembles are lower, with a 30-50% chance of at least an inch of snow and then dropping off to a less than 15% chance of at least 4 inches of snow. The EC continues to remain an outlier, and with the progressive nature of this system that most guidance shows, would tend to lean towards these lower probabilities at this time. However, light snow and breezy conditions on Thursday into Thursday night could lead to some minor travel impacts no matter how much fall, so please keep up to date with the latest forecast.

Temperature-wise into this weekend, the NBM is showing seasonal temperatures, though this will be ultimately affected by how much snow falls, if any, on Thursday/Thursday night. More snow would mean colder temperatures this weekend, with less snow meaning seasonal or even slightly warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. Besides continued light easterly to southeasterly surface winds, expect the quieter conditions to continue. Otherwise, rain chances will move across the area towards the end of the TAF period along with a few hours of potential LLWS closer to 06z Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Winds pick up during the day tomorrow as a storm system develops over the northern Plains. We're looking to see gusts up to 25-35 mph during the day on Tuesday, though the strongest wind gusts are likely to be north of the spots where the lowest relative humidity values (RH) will be. Speaking of RH, these values will be lowest along the Missouri River (25-35%) and increase the farther northeast you go across the area, with minimum RH values of 40-70% northeast of a Mitchell to Le Mars line. The area with the best overlap of breezy winds and near critical RH values will be south-central South Dakota. Opted to forego fire weather headlines at this time in these areas due to the borderline nature of the RH/wind values reaching criteria and the fact that clouds associated with this system may limit the mixing potential and thus lead to weaker winds and cooler temperatures than expected. Still, elevated fire weather concerns are expected across the area as warmer than normal temperatures and High to Very High GFDI values continue. Wind direction on Tuesday will start out from the southeast, turning more west-southwesterly heading into the evening as a cold front moves through.

Winds will be even stronger on Wednesday, gusting mainly out of the west up to 30-40 mph. This combined with the potential for RH values dropping below 25% mainly south of I-90 will lead to another day of elevated to critical fire weather concerns and perhaps a better chance of headlines being issued. However, held off on issuing headlines for now as there are questions about how warm temperatures will get on Wednesday. The current forecast calls for highs dropping to the 40s for the areas that have the strongest winds, so this could help limit fires from sparking. It will warmer with highs in the 60s towards the Highway-20 corridor, though winds look to be a bit weaker in those areas. Still, trends will be monitored closely and future headlines may be needed. Snow chances return Thursday and even colder temperatures move in through the weekend, so this help will limit fire weather concerns for the end of the week/weekend.

CLIMATE

Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

The forecast through Tuesday will feature additional near-record to record highs and near record warm low temperatures:

Record high temperatures:

February 16: KFSD: 64/1981 KSUX: 66/1981 KHON: 62/2017 KMHE:63/2017 February 17: KFSD: 70/1981 KSUX: 71/1981 KHON: 67/1913 KMHE:70/1913

Record warm low temperatures:

February 17: KFSD: 33/1992 KSUX: 37/1930 KHON: 35/1981 February 18: KFSD: 38/1994 KSUX: 39/1971 KHON: 35/1994

Additionally, climate perspectives indicate that the current forecast through Wednesday the 18th would push the mean monthly temperature departure at Sioux Falls (+16 degrees), Sioux City (+16 degrees), and Huron (+18 degrees) as the warmest February on record through that date by a margin of nearly a full degree.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.