textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A few sprinkles to very light showers will be possible tonight. However, any accumulations would be limited.

- Additional light shower chances could follow a cold front later Monday into early Tuesday. However, most areas will remain dry through the week ahead.

- After seasonal temperatures this weekend into Monday, cooler than normal temperatures return midweek. Early morning frost or near-freezing temperatures will again be possible Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

A crisp early Spring morning is ahead with 3 AM temperatures in the 30s most areas, locally cooler in the upper 20s in a few low lying areas/river valleys. The cool Spring temperatures will be behind us for the next few days with the weekend seeing seasonal temperatures topping out in the 60s to lower 70s and lows mostly in the 40s. A mid-level wave will bring an increase in clouds this evening and cannot rule out spotty sprinkles/light showers, but a deep dry sub-cloud layer (7-10kft) will limit how much rain actually reaches the surface. Isolated stronger wind gusts of 30+ mph could accompany any showers, though.

Monday currently looks to be the warmest day, though timing of a cold front could impact highs if it moves through a little faster. That said, the NBM 10th percentile high temperatures are still in the 60s to lower 70s, so feel confident that stronger cooling pulling highs back into the 50s will not be felt until Tuesday. This could lead to a couple more nights of potential frost or near-freezing temperatures by early Wednesday/Thursday, though degree of cooling will be dependent on extent of cloud cover.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: Another mild day continues! Taking a look across the area, a beautiful day continues with temperatures mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s across the area with breezy northerly winds. Expect winds to gradually decrease into the evening as a surface high moves overhead which will us to our main concerns. Similar to yesterday, the combination of lighter surface winds and near to below freezing temperatures (28-32 degrees) will likely lead to widespread frost develop overnight. However, the main difference comes with the mostly clear conditions unlike yesterday. After collaboration with neighboring offices, a Freeze Warning will be in effect from 1am-8am CDT for most areas. With this in mind, make sure to bring in/cover any sensitive outdoor vegetation and to turn off your sprinklers for the night.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Looking into the rest of the weekend, northwesterly flow will continue aloft as the ridging continues to flatten across the western CONUS. Temperatures will trend warmer by Saturday as southwesterly surface winds and increasing mid-level warm air advection (WAA) help highs return to the 60s and low 70s. While a mostly dry cold front will swing through by late evening, can't completely rule out a few spits to very light showers overnight especially across southwestern MN. Nonetheless, accumulations will be limited (if any) given the lack of saturation depicted in soundings. A similar set up will occur on Sunday as another push of warmer air aloft will help highs once again reach the 60s to low 70s. However, a slightly stronger cold front will swing through starting as early as Sunday night potentially leading to a few additional showers by Monday morning. Lastly, the influx of colder air could affect temperatures into early next week keeping highs below seasonal thresholds (low to upper 50s) through the midweek.

NEXT WEEK: Heading into the extended period, an active pattern will persist aloft for most of the week as the Hudson Bay Trough strengthens and upper-level ridging builds over the western CONUS. This will likely keep us locked into predominantly northwesterly flow aloft with multiple system rotating through the northern Plains. However, with medium to long-range guidance continuing to suggest limited moisture with each wave, not expecting much past a few diurnally driven chances (<30%) on Monday and potentially Thursday. Lastly, after a brief cool down to start the week; we'll continue to trend warmer from Thursday onwards with highs in the 60s to low 70s into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Light west to southwest winds to start the TAF period increase through the morning, with occasional gusts 20-25kt during the afternoon, especially near to north of I-90. Gusts generally diminish with sunset, with winds turning northwest to north this evening as a weak front moves through the area. Ahead of the front, KSUX will see a few hours of low level wind shear 06z-10Z as southwest winds 35-45kt develop atop a surface-based inversion.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with mid level clouds 7-10kft AGL swinging across the area this evening. Spotty light rain showers/sprinkles will accompany these clouds and while visibility impacts are not expected, brief gusts to 30kt will be possible.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for SDZ038>040-050- 052>071. MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098. IA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ013-014.