textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and breezy conditions this afternoon will promote some elevated fire weather concerns mainly west of I-29. Additional fire weather concerns are expected by Tuesday.

- Periods of light snow will return from Wednesday into Thursday with moderate to high probabilities (40%-70%) of measurable accumulations according to ensemble guidance.

UPDATE

Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Another cold start ahead! Taking a look across the area, the combination of lighter surface winds and lingering cold air advection aloft (CAA) have led to single digits temperatures on either side of zero this morning with even colder wind chills (-5 to -18 degrees). With these conditions expected to persist through the late morning, remember to bundle up when making those morning commutes! Otherwise, the focus continues to be on the elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. Increasing southerly winds along with dry fuels and RH values (25%-35%) will lead to high fire danger along and west of I-29. While the threat will be primarily wind driven, a fire could spread quickly given the conditions so make sure to take the appropriate precautions.

From here, a push towards more mild and breezy conditions by Tuesday will lead to more fire weather concerns. However, increasing cloud cover along with a few sprinkles/flurries could put a damper on that potential. Lastly, periods of light snow will return by Wednesday. While amounts still look light overall, some deterministic guidance is starting to point to some slightly higher accumulations east of I-29 so make sure to monitor your local forecast especially if you have any travel plans!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Cold surface high pressure settles southward tonight which will bring cold overnight lows in the single digits, a few locations likely below zero. With some light winds, wind chill values will dip to -5 to -15 at times. By Monday afternoon southerly return flow will set up across most of the area, strongest near and west of the James River. This will create some elevated fire danger in this area. Otherwise temperatures will claw back to around normal in most locations, climbing above normal in south central SD.

Tuesday should see the highest threat for high to very high fire danger. Model soundings indicate the potential for wind gusts around 40 mph with humidity dropping to 25 to 40 percent in most locations in the afternoon. If mixing remains more limited wind gusts will likely be closer to 25 to 30 mph, but with little to no snow cover the deeper mixing is expected.

A fast moving system Wednesday into Wednesday night continues to bring increased confidence for an area of light to moderate snow. Initially there could be a battle of low level dry air, but with a fast moving upper level jet expected to drop southeast and colder air settling in with decent frontal forcing, snow should develop. Fairly decent agreement in the EC Ensemble and GEFS with 30-60 percent probabilities of at least a tenth of an inch of liquid, with the better chances near and north of I-90. Will need to keep an eye on the frontal band as some of the models are bringing the max forcing closer to I-90. Still a few days out.

Behind this system temperatures will rebound quickly back above normal with 40s and 50s on Thursday and 50s and 60s on Friday. If snow on Wednesday is more widespread this will eat into these milder temperatures.

Some disagreement amongst the models for next weekend, but starting to look like near to below normal temperatures with only very small chance for light precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Can't rule out a few sprinkles or flurries tomorrow morning, but that's about it precipitation-wise. Winds will be out of the south-southeast through the rest of today, gusting up to 30 kts. Winds diminish a bit tonight, but will increase again heading into the day tomorrow. This is because of a cold front moving in, which will gradually turn winds to the west and then northwest through the end of the period as it crosses the area. Winds could gust as high as 30-35 kts through tomorrow morning. Lastly, LLWS concerns will impact KFSD and KSUX late tonight into early tomorrow morning.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.