textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold this morning with wind chill values 15 to 30 below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory continues through mid morning for southwest Minnesota and nearby areas.

- A band of snow will become likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening with the better chances near and north of I-90. A couple of inches of snow will be possible creating some hazardous travel, but at this time wind does not appear to play much of a role.

- Another wave will bring light snow to the area Wednesday. While amounts should be on the light side, winds will be more of a problem with gusts around 45 mph likely. With the potential for 1-3" of fresh snowpack in some areas, reduced visibility in blowing snow may be a problem.

- Confidence is increasing in the another round of very cold temperatures coming for the end of the week and into the weekend. Wind chills possibly as cold as -25 to -35.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Cold high pressure at the surface will drift south this morning, bringing a decrease in winds and a slight change in direction to a bit more westerly than northerly. Temperatures however will remain very cold with highs generally between 10 and 20 degrees. Wind chill values will remain below zero in most locations near and north of I- 90 through the day and into Tuesday morning. Other than a few flurries early this morning, snow is not expected today.

Upper level flow quickly turns more northerly with a wave expected to dive south on Tuesday and another stronger wave expected on Wednesday. A quick shot of warm advection/frontal forcing moves through on Tuesday. The better moisture appears to be near and north of I-90 along with a slightly deeper dgz. Timing of this forcing looks to be in the afternoon and evening. Maybe a hint of instability with this frontal band, but no strong signals there. Overall the EC Ensemble and GEFS are hinting at about 1-2" of snow, a touch more on the GEFS. By Wednesday a stronger jet max dives south and brings a stronger wave and additional chances for snow. Currently not much pointing towards more than an inch or so of new snow, but all models are driving strong cold air advection into the area on Wednesday afternoon with what looks to be 35 to 50 knots in the 925-850 mb layer. This could bring some visibility reductions throughout Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Something to keep an eye on as this could cause a bit more widespread hazardous travel.

Once this system passes by Wednesday night, cold air pours in from the north, setting up what should be a very cold Friday and Saturday. The latest NAEFS data shows surface high pressure in the 99th percentile moving south into MN during this time. This will likely set up some dangerous wind chills both days, possibly beginning Thursday afternoon, depending upon timing of this surge of very cold air.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR through the period. Some patchy MVFR clouds will drift through the area this morning, but for now ceilings are unlikely.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for SDZ039- 040-055-056. MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MNZ071- 072-080-081-089-090-097. IA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for IAZ002- 003-013-014-022. NE...None.