textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Northwesterly winds gusting between 25-35 mph may lead to some patchy blowing snow and reduced visibility through the morning commute along the Buffalo Ridge. - Temperatures remain near to below normal through Friday. Confidence is beginning to increase in temperatures warming back near to above average late this weekend into early next week.

- No significantly impactful systems are expected over the next week. However, light snow chances are possible Thursday and next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Temperatures this morning remain in the single digits and teens above zero. Winds have remained a bit on the breezier side through the early overnight hours - with northwesterly winds around 20 mph gusting to around 35 mph. Wind chills remain near to below zero. Could see some very patchy blowing snow through the morning commute near and along the Buffalo Ridge with these stronger winds.

Surface high pressure prevails with northwesterly flow aloft. Winds remain somewhat on the breezier side despite the surface high but still light overall (less than 15 mph and occasional gusts around 25 mph). CAA aloft and northwesterly surface flow will keep things on the cooler side, with highs in the teens to mid 20s - coldest in southwestern MN.

Some hi-res guidance indicates isolated flurries this evening and tonight with some weak lift/f-gen in the somewhat saturated DGZ; however, confidence low with dry air below DGZ and general lack of any forcing outside of some WAA. Kept forecast dry for now. Winds tonight become light and variable as the axis of high pressure slides overhead. Lows tonight fall into the single digits, with wind chills falling to below zero for areas outside the MO River Valley.

For Wednesday, another dry day expected. Highs in the teens and 20s once again, with colder lows Wednesday night - falling into the single digits above and below zero. Wind chills Wednesday night into Thursday morning fall below zero for most of the area.

THURSDAY: Somewhat split flow over the area into late week with the upper low over Ontario/Quebec and the jet just south of our area. Mid level short wave dives through western SD into central SD through Thursday, with surface low over western SD. Surface boundary also stretches across western/south central SD. Forcing looks to be weak overall, with some WAA as well. This wave brings some light snow chances to the area, mainly focused across central SD through the MO River Valley. Ensemble probability of measurable liquid equivalent is high (over 70%) across south central SD, with just under a 50% chance for Sioux City. Probability for a tenth of an inch remains very low, at less than 10%. Therefore, expect accumulations to remain less than an inch at this time. Temperatures Thursday will be cooler once again - in the single digits and teens. Lows Thursday night continue to trend colder, falling below zero. Wind chills Thursday night into Friday morning drop to near -20 across the US Hwy 14 corridor.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Guidance varies on the timing, but expect the previously mentioned upper low across Canada to dive back to the southwest by early Friday into the weekend. Friday looks to be another cold day, with some lingering light snow chances along the boundary/weak forcing near the MO River - very light accumulations possible with ensemble probability even lower than Thursday. Light snow chances may return through the weekend; however, confidence is low on the details (timing/location) due to spread in the deterministic and ensemble data. That said, not expecting any significant impacts as despite the spread in data, ensemble probability for exceeding a tenth of an inch of liquid remains around and below 40% (highest for the Canadian ensemble). Temperatures this weekend do begin to moderate toward seasonal normals.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Near to above average temperatures expected early next week as ridging builds to west and the axis slides east into Tuesday. Mostly dry conditions are expected at this time, although a weak wave or two could bring some light precip to the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period, with increasing mid clouds late tonight. Breezy northwesterly winds with gusts 20 to 25 knots this morning may lead to some very patchy blowing snow along the Buffalo Ridge through mid morning. Gusts taper down this evening as winds become light and variable tonight.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.