textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix will return to the region after midnight and continue into Saturday morning.

- Light elevated and bridge icing will be possible along and north of I-90. Snow totals of a dusting to a couple inches will be possible along Highway 14.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in NW Iowa Friday morning after 7am through 11am. Small hail most likely, but a very isolated quarter report possible.

- Wrap around snow Saturday morning along with occasional gusty conditions may bring brief slick roads.

- Dry, but cooler than normal temperatures return into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: We're continuing to watch this initial shortwave move east of the CWA early this afternoon. Weak isentropic downglide will bring end end to the precipitation in most locations, with reports of minor elevated icing reported over portions of SW Minnesota and the I-29 corridor of eastern SD. MRMS radial freezing rain accumulations also support this, with fairly localized 0.10" totals through the Ridge areas. While a low probability, patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle may still develop this afternoon. Temperature remain near or above freezing in most areas.

TONIGHT: Winds will turn light and variable later this evening as surface ridging slides east. Latest short term guidance keeps extensive cloud cover through the region which may keep temperature a bit warmer than the NBM initially suggested. We'll have to watch the impacts of a colder NE wind out of central MN that could bring in minor surface cold advection by daybreak. A deeper upper trough moving into the Central Rockies will spread scattered through northern Nebraska and central South Dakota by midnight. Additional scattered showers will develop southeast into northern Iowa by daybreak within a corridor of modest low-lvl warm advection from the SE. Temperatures will be critical to surface impacts, with some shift northward in warmer temperatures reducing icing south of I-90.

FRIDAY: Two things to watch on Friday. First will be eastward spread of showers through the Tri-State area after daybreak. Latest soundings continue to show a favored trend towards partial to full melting of falling hydrometeors, pushing favorite p-types towards rain and sleet. Surface temperatures will be critical once again, though as we've seen today, warm road and ground temperatures are preventing much in the way of icing on roads (except for bridges). Most icing is likely to remain on elevated cooled surfaces. At this time, icing is more likely north of I-90, with meaningful icing along Highway 14 into SW Minnesota. Should colder air deepen into central South Dakota early Friday, a quick 1-3" of snow could fall along a line from Chamberlain to Huron. Will issue a winter weather advisory for portions of the CWA north of I-90. Later forecasts will need to closely monitor the temperatures into the overnight for any potential adjustments to icing.

The second thing to watch is a narrow corridor of elevated instability rooted at the 800 mb layer that could approach 1000 J/KG. The intensification of focused warm advection and a sharp convergence zone could lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms moving through NW Iowa and into southern Minnesota by mid-morning. Effective shear is minimal, but with freezing levels between 9-10K ft AGL, small hail to isolated quarter hail could be possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: As the upper trough moves into the Dakotas and continues to deepen, an expansive dry slot will move through the Tri- State area, potentially shutting off precipitation or converting it over to drizzle. Latest guidance continues to show the potential for light snow to pivot around the upper trough into Saturday morning, through guidance has backed off on the southward extend of this precipitation today.

SATURDAY: We'll see stronger cold advection move through the area Saturday as the trough crosses into MN/WI. Some questions about potential for a few convective snow showers remain for Saturday afternoon, though soundings do no seem to be as aggressive with lapse rates by the afternoon. Nevertheless, afternoon gusts to 30 to 35 mph may be possible.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Mostly quiet conditions are expected well into next week as mid-lvl heights gradually rise over the West Coast. Temperatures through Monday will be colder than normal as Canadian high pressure drains into the Plains. A quick flip around to gusty southerly winds is expected Tuesday afternoon but thankfully after widespread precipitation fire weather risks will be much lower. A brief surge of warm air aloft arrives on Wednesday and may provide our only chance of exceeding normal this week. Precipitation chances rise again by Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are likely to continue in the wake of a departing system this afternoon. Those lower ceilings will persist overnight in anticipation of yet another storm system arriving after midnight. A mix of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet will be possible north of I-90 through mid-day. Visibility reductions in moderate rain could drop below 2 miles briefly.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for SDZ040. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ040-055-056. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ038-039-052>054-057-058. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071- 072-080-081-097. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ071-072-080-081-097. IA...None. NE...None.