textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to below normal temperatures are expected through Sunday.

- Precipitation chances are very low until the middle of next week.

- A more active weather pattern is looking more likely from the middle of next week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A surface ridge of high pressure will settle south into the area, bringing another morning of cool temperatures. Expect Friday morning lows from the upper teens to lower 20s in most locations. Most of the area near and east of the James River into southwest MN and northwest Iowa will see a 30-35% chance for temperatures below 20.

Cool high pressure slowly shifts east on Friday, bring southerly winds into central SD and lighter east to southeast winds near and east of Highway 81. Highs will remain below normal, topping out from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Low temperatures will rebound a bit Saturday morning as high pressure shifts east. Areas east of I-29 will see the best chance to dip into the lower 20s again, while southerly flow will slowly increase through the night. Lows in central SD will drop to 25 to 30, and possibly warm through the night.

Saturday into Sunday will see milder temperatures, highs mainly lower 40s to lower 50s, but this will be a bit off set by the stronger southerly winds, likely gusting to 25 to 35 mph both days.

Mild air overspreads the area early next week as a wave deepens to the west Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will keep southerly flow in the low levels in place during this time, along with breezy conditions. Highs will mainly be in the upper 40s to mid 50s while lows only fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

The next better chance for precipitation will come after the end of this 7 day forecast cycle, Wednesday night into Thursday. Still too early for any details but given the placement of the mid and upper level low pressure suspect any winter weather hazards will be west and north of the area with a more showery concern in the local area as the jet/dry slot wraps north Wednesday night into Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

While the MVFR ceilings are exiting to the west this morning, diurnally driven MVFR ceilings are developing across southwest MN, and should continue to develop southwestward into eastern SD and northwest IA. Given these clouds are driven more by the heat of the day, near and shortly after sunset much of this could cover should dissipate. Given the latest model soundings, there is a small chance this MVFR deck could linger later into tonight. Too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise, light winds are expected.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.