textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold wind chills as low as -30 continue into tonight especially over southwest Minnesota and along the Highway-14 corridor into South Dakota. Conditions improve through tomorrow morning.

- Another night of dangerous cold is likely Sunday night, with a moderate to high (40-90%) chance of wind chills of -25 or colder mainly north of a Huron to Sioux Falls to Storm Lake line.

- Temperatures look to remain below normal heading into next week. Light snow chances return tonight, Sunday, and Tuesday night into Wednesday, but nothing impactful expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

It's been a bitterly cold day out there today with even a light breeze causing wind chills to drop well down to the negative 20s and negative 30s. Continue to bundle up tonight as air temperatures drop back down to the negative teens for most of the area. Winds remain calm tonight as the surface high continues sliding across the Upper Midwest, but we'll still see wind chills as low as -25 to -30 whenever even a light wind blows mainly over southwest Minnesota and adjacent areas of east-central South Dakota. For this reason, did extend the Cold Weather Advisory for these areas until 9 am tomorrow.

A storm system that will be responsible for a significant winter storm across a large part of the country will just brush our area overnight with some light snow/flurries mainly along the Missouri River Valley. Guidance has been trending southward with this snowfall and soundings indicate temperature profiles largely colder than the DGZ. So overall not expecting much if any accumulations with this system outside of a dusting. However, if you have travel plans this weekend for outside of our area, make plans for any potential travel disruptions this weekend. The rest of Saturday here should be quiet and chilly, with highs finally climbing above zero for most of us, though still mostly into the single digits. Only exception is in south-central South Dakota where we could see highs in the teens above zero.

As the main northern stream trough digs into our area on Sunday, a cold front will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold air into the area Sunday night. Wind chills look to drop mainly to the -25 to -35 degree range, with ensemble probabilities of wind chills -25 degrees or colder around 40-90% north of a Huron-Sioux Falls-Storm Lake line, dropping to a less than 20% chance of -35 or colder wind chills in these areas. Before this next Arctic air intrusion, an area of light snow/flurries will move across the area during the day on Sunday but is not expected to cause much issues. There will be a breeze, but winds won't be overly strong and accumulations will be light, with the probabilities of at least 0.01" of liquid only around 10-30% leading to a dusting to a tenth or two of snow at most at this time. Any new snowfall will help promote cold temperatures Sunday night though, with lows looking to be in the negative single digits and negative teens heading into Monday morning.

An active upper-pattern continues into the next work week, with guidance indicating another quick moving wave of light snow possibly moving in Tuesday night into Wednesday. Ensemble probabilities show a roughly 20-40% chance of measurable snowfall, but once you start looking at probabilities of at least an inch of snow, it drops to around 5%. As for temperatures, look for below normal temperatures to continue into much of next week. Ensembles hint at another reinforcing shot of colder air late week before turning temperatures closer to seasonal normals by the first day of February.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected for this period. A shallow layer of moisture will keep scattered to broken clouds through the overnight. CLouds dissipate through the day Saturday. Winds are light and variable and expected to remains so until Saturday afternoon. Then they will become southerly at 5-10 kts.

Very low chance (<15%) for light snow/flurries along the Missouri River counties, including KSUX from now until 24.12Z. Very little if any accumulation is expected and impacts to flight operations are not expected.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for SDZ038>040- 054>056. MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for MNZ071-072- 080-081-089-090-097. IA...None. NE...None.