textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Normal Returns: A cooler Monday. but near normal temperatures likely Tuesday and Wednesday. - Rain Returns: Outside of sprinkles Tuesday afternoon, scattered rain returns by Thursday with a 60-80% probability of greater than 0.10" of rain.

- Turning Colder: Temperatures Thursday and Friday fall below normal with highs in the 50s and low 60s. Frost potential on Saturday morning.

- Weekend Warming: Warming trend possible Sunday into early next week with highs back above normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Stratus continues to linger throughout the CWA late this evening. Some pockets of clearing have formed, but most guidance continues to hint at the redevelopment of stratus into the morning hours.

Further southwest, we're beginning to see an increase in mid-lvl clouds and even light showers. This activity is tied to the arrival of weak dPVA into the Black Hills region, combined with the left exit region of the upper jet entering the Plains. This activity will continue to move northeast through the night, likely staying just northwest of the CWA.

Weak mid-lvl lift as mid-lvl vorticity and 700 mb warm advection moves across the CWA by mid-day Tuesday. Would not be surprised at all to see some very light rain to sprinkles form through portions of the CWA during the daylight hours. Temperatures on Tuesday will depend on cloud cover, as a northwesterly surface wind will continue. The NBM is likely biased a bit too warm after the past week, so will blend more higher resolution short term guidance for cooler high temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A fast moving wave will exit the area late this afternoon into the evening. A few sprinkles or patchy drizzle will be possible, but impacts will be minimal. Otherwise the challenge will be stratus development with dissipation through the afternoon into the evening and then further redevelopment overnight into Tuesday morning. Even with a few locations possibly falling into the upper 30s, a north wind of 5 to 10 mph and cloud cover will likely limit any frost development.

Another wave will move through NE on Tuesday and could bring a stray showers into parts of northeast NE and northwest IA, but once again, amounts will be light and impacts minimal. With some cloud cover and a cool northerly breeze, temperatures will remain around normal.

Wednesday will be mild and dry as upper level ridging builds ahead of the next stronger wave. High pressure at the surface will see lighter winds and temperatures around normal.

The next stronger wave moves into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Warm advection increases in the lower levels ahead of this wave Wednesday night which will bring the potential for some rainfall. The stronger warm advection is more likely across NE and expect the better rainfall amounts to remain there as well. Instability looks very weak so thunderstorms are unlikely. Currently the better chance for a more meaningful rainfall (0.25" to 0.50") is south of I-90 on Thursday during the day. The latest GEFS and EC Ensemble are indicating a 20-40 percent chance for more than a half an inch of rain south of I-90.

Saturday morning will see cool surface high pressure settle south, bringing a chance for frost across the area. Some hints that southerly return flow may set up through the night so confidence on frost development remains a bit low.

A warming trend is looking more likely Sunday into early next week as faster westerly flow aloft transitions to upper level ridging through mid week. This will allow for a well mixed environment Sunday and Monday, with southerly flow becoming more dominant mid to late week. Some hints that a cool front may slip south on Monday, but the effects on temperatures would not be real strong. This is still 6-10 days out, so lots of room for changes, but for now looking like a good chance for near to above normal temperatures Sunday through the middle of next week.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.