textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are expected again Monday and Wednesday.

- Meaningful precipitation is not expected through Wednesday.

- Late week southwest flow aloft will bring back chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms but confidence is low on any details.

UPDATE

Issued at 904 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The forecast remains on track. Elevated fire danger continues to wane this evening as winds weaken and humidity increases. Mainly quiet conditions is expected for the overnight hours. The exception will be sprinkles and flurries to perhaps very light precipitation mainly across southwest Minnesota. The low levels are quite dry but the lift looks strong enough to overcome the lack of saturation just enough. Any precipitation that reaches the surface will be very light with no impacts expected. Low temperatures will fall to near to just below freezing tonight.

Temperatures begin to rebound on Sunday with highs warming back to the upper 40s to upper 50s. Low humidity remains for the day but winds will be much lighter thanks to surface ridging sliding through the area. Thus fire danger is not expected. Low temperatures will again fall to near to below freezing overnight.

Elevated fire danger remains on track to return for Monday as warm air advection (WAA) strengthens aloft. This warming will result in much warmer temperatures back to the 60s and 70s. Humidity values look to be low as southwest winds deliver breezy winds back to the area. While these conditions look to result in elevated fire danger, greening fuels may be just enough to keep fire danger capped at high as of now.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Very dry and windy conditions have brought another day of very high/near critical fire danger to the area. While many of the fuels have begin to quickly green up, the warm season tall grasses are still lagging a bit and remain susceptible. Winds will slacken around and after sunset diminishing the near critical fire weather concerns.

Later tonight a weak wave will track by mainly to the north, scraping by parts of highway 14 into southwest MN. This will likely bring through a short period of scattered rain/snow showers with accumulations remaining on the minimal side. As this system passes a weak cool front at the surface will sag south and keep temperatures on the cooler side again Sunday, albeit a bit warmer than today and right around the seasonal normals. Highs generally near 50 in southwest MN to near 60 along the Mo River Valley.

On Monday flow aloft flattens and brings in a westerly warmer shot of air in the low levels, with surface winds increasing from the south. Highs will push into the 70s in most locations with a few 80s in central SD. Once again, breezy and warm conditions coupled with dry air will bring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions to the area.

A weak front sags south on Tuesday dropping winds and alleviating fire weather concerns. Temperatures will again be warm with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Well above normal temperatures are anticipated on Wednesday with a few locations possibly creeping up towards record warm highs. Most records are hovering in the lower to mid 90s. One thing fighting reaching the record warm highs will be a south to slightly southeast potential for surface winds which usually does not support the deeper mixing needed to reach into the mid 90s. However, with southerly winds likely gusting to 30 to 40 mph near critical fire weather conditions are again expected.

The next potential weather maker for the area will be a deepening trough over the Central Rockies Thursday which should drift northeast into Friday. A bit better agreement amongst the models this time around in deepening this low in south central Canada Friday and then just kind of locking it in place across central Canada into the weekend. What this should mean is another warm day Thursday with a good chance a cold front moves into the area which will bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Cooler temperatures also become much more likely Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Winds have weakened considerably across the area. Beginning to the light showers on radar move into the area near KBKX. Dry air in the low levels will prevent the bulk of the precipitation from reaching the surface. That said, sprinkles and flurries remain possible mainly along and northeast of a line from KBKX down to about KOTG. Mainly clear skies and light northerly winds is expected for the afternoon hours tomorrow. These light winds will finish out the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.