textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A few sprinkles to very light showers are expected early this morning. However, any accumulations would be limited. The main threat will be localized gusty winds to 20 to 30 mph with the showers.

- Additional isolated shower and very isolated thunderstorm chances are possible Monday afternoon into Monday night. If a storm can develop wind gusts to around 50 mph will be possible. The better chances will be south of I-90.

- After seasonal temperatures this weekend into Monday, cooler than normal temperatures return midweek. Early morning frost or near-freezing temperatures will again be possible Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 855 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Scattered light showers and sprinkles stretching roughly along a Marshall, MN to Alexandria, SD to Burke, SD line continues to drift southeastward ahead of a cold front. Ample dry air beneath the clouds has led to a couple of wind gusts over 45 mph with these showers earlier this evening, including a 53 mph gust in Huron just before 8 pm. This threat for stronger wind gusts should diminish quickly this evening as a nocturnal inversion develops, though could still see a short- lived increase in winds to 20-30 mph as any shower/sprinkle moves through. This activity will move out of the area into central Iowa by 1-3 am. Despite the frontal passage, expecting a much warmer night ahead tonight with lows mainly in the 40s. In other words, frost/freeze concerns are not expected heading into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

A fast moving wave will track southeast into ND and MN into tonight. This will spread some mid level moisture through the area that happens to reside within the dgz. With some very weak instability lifting from about 700 mb a few showers will be likely this evening. Severe weather is not expected but with a very dry sub cloud layer a few wind gusts to 35 to 45 mph will be possible. The better chances will be near and east of I-29.

A weak front will settle into the area late tonight but have little affect on temperatures Sunday. Winds will turn from the north to more westerly on Sunday evening. Highs mild in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Model soundings indicate maybe a little patchy cumulus in the afternoon but no instability for showers, so looking dry.

A weak wave and marginal instability, generally 500 J/kg CAPE or lower, will move into the area Monday. A broad trough to the north will settle south and push cooler air into the area. Near and ahead of this front, generally south of I-90, the environment may support some gusty winds to around 50 mph with the stronger showers or isolated thunderstorms that may develop later Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

Northwest flow aloft remains in place Tuesday through next weekend. This will bring a series of waves through the area but for now moisture looks fairly limited so the threat for more than scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remains low. Currently the better chances appear to come with a weaker wave Wednesday into Wednesday night then Thursday night into Friday with a bit stronger wave.

Outside of the shower and thunderstorm potential will be frost and freeze potential with light winds on Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. Fairly widespread morning lows of 30 to 35 are expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Isolated light showers/sprinkles linger to start the period mainly southeast of a KMML to KFSD to KYKN line and are moving to the south and east. This activity has been able to still bring gusts to around 25-30 kts down to the surface when it passes through, and this will be a possibility at KSUX for the next couple of hours (30% chance). Otherwise, LLWS concerns continue for northwest Iowa and adjacent areas of South Dakota and Minnesota over the next few hours.

A cold front clears the area by sunrise, turning winds north- northwesterly area-wide this morning into the afternoon. Winds will then gradually turn back westerly and then southwesterly this evening. Winds gusts this afternoon top out around 20 kts.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.