textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions persist early this evening across the region. Avoid burning and report any fires to local authorities.

- A snow band is expected to bring snow accumulations north of the I- 90 corridor overnight into Saturday morning. The highest snow amounts, 1-3 inches, will be confined to near and north of a De Smet SD to Windom MN line. Further south, a light dusting remains possible.

- A low chance of light snow develops Sunday, followed by periodic low to moderate chances for precipitation next week. High confidence in an active spring weather pattern, but low confidence in precipitation timing and type (rain, snow, and/or mix), highly dependent on temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

LATE THIS AFTERNOON: Looking across the region, temperatures range from the low 50s (Highway 14 corridor) to the 60s (Highway 20 corridor as of 2 PM. Highs will reach near or exceeding records at a few sites in northwest IA and southwest MN (for example, Sanborn, Sibley, Worthington, Windom, Lake Park, and Spencer). Model blends have struggled all day in keeping up with efficient mixing, with gusts peaking in the 40s and dew points dropping to 17 to 25 degrees throughout the day in the Warning area. Dew points have regularly dipped to near or below the NBM 5th percentile. Have expanded the Red Flag Warning to account for localized, more efficient mixing. Near critical to critical fire danger persists across the region through sunset. See the Fire Weather section below for more details.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY: This evening, attention turns to a cold front dropping south into the Northern Plains and a trailing compact shortwave in northwest flow aloft. Warm air advection and moderate mid level frontogenetical forcing with the wave should prompt sufficient top-down saturation to produce light to moderate snow near and north of a De Smet to Windom line late tonight into Saturday morning. This area can expect around 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation by Saturday afternoon. The big lingering question is exact snowband placement and how far south snow will occur, especially for anyone traveling toward the Twin Cities or Fargo this weekend. It is possible to get a light (<1") dusting of snow as far south as Chamberlain to Sioux Falls to Storm Lake. However the 00z/06z/12z deterministic models have maintained the northward shift of the snowband placement, putting the bulk of the heaviest snow (3- 6") oriented from northeast SD through west central MN and toward the Twin Cities metro. There also remains a little uncertainty regarding when snow will end Saturday afternoon in southwest MN. A few models suggesting flurries or light snow may linger as late as Saturday evening northeast of the Buffalo Ridge, where isolated amounts of 3 to 4 inches cannot be ruled out.

Aside from snow creating minor travel impacts, the other main story will be a cool down heading into Saturday. Sites receiving 1+ inches of snow are unlikely to see temperatures above the freezing mark Saturday. Further south, highs in the 30s to mid 40s will be common but warming will somewhat depend on clouds clearing.

SUNDAY: Strong Arctic high pressure builds eastward along the Canadian border early Sunday. Currently have low temperatures starting the day in the single digits to teens, but if clouds clear out overnight, lows could be colder than currently forecast. Broad warm air advection brings a low chance of light snow or flurries Sunday, but impacts look to be minor at this time.

MONDAY: Upper level flow becomes zonal across the Plains Monday as a strong upper trough progresses through the West. A leading, zonal flow shortwave brings a low to moderate (30-50%) chance of rain or snow Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. Expect a breezy, cool Monday with highs in the 40s.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND: A progressive Colorado Low ejects into the Plains mid week and perhaps another Friday/next weekend, bringing periodic, spring-like precipitation chances across the Central U.S. through the week. While a blend of model guidance would currently favor highs in the 40s and 50s, a majority of deterministic model guidance runs much cooler with highs 5-10 degrees cooler daily. Given the low confidence in temperatures, confidence in precipitation type will be highly dependent on speed and timing of the wave (i.e., snow more likely at night).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds will quickly wane over the coming hours. Winds will turn out of the northeast for the overnight hours and remain elevated. Snow looks to return to the area generally along and north of I-90 tonight into tomorrow morning. Some questions remain as to whether any snow will fall at KHON and KFSD so have only included PROB30 groups at this time. Will keep an eye on trends through the evening hours. Confidence is higher in snow falling across portions of the highway- 14 corridor, especially around KMML and KTKC. Ceilings look to lower to MVFR levels with visibilities down to IFR thresholds in falling snow. Any chance for snow will come to an end by the early afternoon hours, leaving elevated northeast winds to finish out the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Expanded the Red Flag Warning northward across all of northwest Iowa, northeast Nebraska, and much of southeast South Dakota as of mid afternoon. Near critical to critical fire danger persists across the region through early this evening with low humidity and northwest winds gusting in the 30s to 50s. North of I-90, high clouds and/or cooler ground from recent snow cover has disrupted heating enough to keep temperatures in the 50s and humidity levels a bit higher. Conversely, areas east of the Buffalo Ridge remain a localized concern, thanks to downslope winds warming locations into the mid 50s with gusts in the 30s. Within the Red Flag Warning area near and south of the I-90 corridor, frequent gusts in the 30s and 40s have combined with temperatures near or above 60 degrees to create critical fire conditions.

Fire danger lessens considerably with sunset as winds weaken drastically and nighttime cooling commences. A moderate to high chance of snow develops north of the I-90 corridor tonight. Combined with cooler air, lighter winds, and higher humidity levels, fire danger becomes low to moderate for Saturday and Sunday. Periodic rain chances develop for much of next week.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ050-052- 053-057>071. MN...None. IA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ013-014.