textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind chills drop to the negative single digits to negative teens tonight and again Sunday night. Milder temperatures start returning to the area Monday afternoon for south-central South Dakota and then for the entire area by Tuesday.

- Mild and breezy conditions by Monday could promote some locally elevated fire weather concerns mainly west of the James River Valley.

- The next system to watch will be Wednesday for the potential of accumulating snowfall, with low to medium (20-40%) chances of at least an inch of snow across the area. However, confidence remains low on amounts and precipitation type as uncertainty with the temperatures and the system's track remain high.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

It's been a chilly day out there as temperatures have climbed only to the teens and 20s. There have been a few flurries with any lower clouds that have moved through the area, and a few spits of flurries can't be ruled out heading into the overnight hours as well. This will be possible as stratus develops over southwestern Minnesota and drifts into adjacent areas of east- central South Dakota and northwest Iowa through the night. Lows in the single digits can be expected once again tonight, with wind chills down into the negative 10s by daybreak tomorrow. A quiet day is expected for tomorrow with highs ranging from the low teens over southwest Minnesota where there will be more cloud cover, to the upper 20s along the Missouri River Valley where there will be more sunshine. Temperatures drop quickly tomorrow night as high pressure slides across the upper Midwest, and we look to see lows Monday in the single digits just above and below zero. Winds will be light, so only expecting wind chills to be a few degrees colder than the air temperature. Still bundle up Monday morning before heading out the door to work or school!

Milder temperatures make a return by Monday afternoon especially west of James River where we will be feeling the effects of increasing warm air advection and the return of southerly flow at the surface. Look for highs reach the 40s in south-central South Dakota, with high temperatures dropping with eastward extent. Highs still look to be in the 20s and low 30s along and east of I-29. Winds will be gusting to 30-35 mph in south-central South Dakota where afternoon temperatures will be the warmest and relative humidity will be lowest (25-35%), and this will lead to locally elevated fire weather concerns. A low pressure system will race across the upper Midwest and towards the Great Lakes on Tuesday, sweeping a cold front through the area. At this point, precipitation with this looks to remain mostly northeast of the area, with ensemble probabilities of measurable precipitation generally less than 30% for our area. Things get a bit more interesting on Wednesday as an upper waves dives out of the northern Rockies and moves across the north-central Plains. A surface low will develop in response and will look to bring some precipitation chances to our area. Timing of this wave and the temperatures as the system moves through are the biggest question marks that results in a lower confidence forecast at this time. The deterministic 21.12z GFS and EC are in fairly good agreement with the track of the system, bringing some snow mainly along and north of I-90. The GFS just has a stronger wave and colder temperatures leading to possibly a greater potential for accumulating snow than the EC. Meanwhile, each of its AI counterparts bring the track of snow further south, closer to the Missouri River Valley. Looking to the ensembles, the uncertainty in the track is apparent in the probabilities of snowfall amounts greater than 1 inch, which paints a broad 20-40% chance of this occurring. Certainly will be the next storm system to monitor, so keep up to date with the latest forecast!

From there, guidance suggests another quick warm-up at the end of the work week, though the degree of warmth will be in question until certainty grows on snow potential on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures may be favored once again by next weekend as a Canadian high pressure may settle into the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1147 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

MVFR to locally IFR stratus will develop tonight in southwest Minnesota and adjacent areas of east-central South Dakota and northwest Iowa. There is some uncertainty on how far south and west this stratus will expand overnight, leading to a lower confidence forecast for KFSD in particular. Currently leaning towards the stratus staying just north and east of KFSD, so kept the TAF as VFR, but trends will be monitored. This area of stratus will continue to impact primarily areas of southwest Minnesota into tomorrow morning, with the edges of it gradually eroding late morning into early afternoon. Winds will be mainly out of the northwest through the period, with peak gusts around 18-25 kts.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.