textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures will persist into at least early next week with most locations 15-25 degrees above normal. Gusty south winds today will lead to elevated fire danger in snow-free areas.

- Monday will be the warmest day ahead, with moderate to high chances (50%-80%) of highs topping 60 degrees along much of the Missouri River Valley. A few record highs could be tied or broken. Low afternoon humidity levels in these very warm areas may again result in elevated fire danger.

- Mostly quiet conditions will prevail into early next week. However, a pattern shift will bring light rain/snow chances by Wednesday-Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Relatively narrow but persistent area of stratus over central portions of the forecast area early this morning has held temperatures on the more mild side with readings 8-10F warmer than clear areas east of the stratus. HRRR seems to have the best handle on this stratus, so blended this with the NBM to boost sky cover through midday.

Forecast soundings do show the stratus layer thinning and eventually clearing as the surface ridge slides east and low level winds increase from the south through southwest, which will also lead to another breezy day with southerly winds gusting 25-35 MPH. Although relative humidity this afternoon remain well above critical levels, the warm temperatures, lack of snow cover and breezy conditions will lead to elevated (High to locally Very High) grassland fire danger today.

Unseasonable warmth gradually expands east through Monday, when low level (850mb) temperatures climb above the 95th percentile of climatology in various model ensembles. Will have to watch a projected increase in mid-upper level moisture from the north by later Monday which could limit temperatures near/north of I-90. Ensemble spread in temperatures north of I-90 ranges from mid 40s to upper 50s, reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover. Higher confidence in temperatures over our southern counties where ensembles depict moderate to high (50-80%) probability of high temperatures topping 60 degrees on Monday. This could put some record highs in jeopardy, with current records being 58F in Sioux Falls (1977) and 62F in Sioux City (1954). Although winds should be lighter than today, a deep dry layer south of I-90 along with mixy southwest flow in the low levels could push relative humidity levels toward 25-30%. This will again support areas of elevated fire danger Monday afternoon.

The wave responsible for the increasing clouds mentioned above will move through Monday night. Moisture depth currently not expected to be deep enough to support precipitation chances, but the wave will cool highs back into the 40s for Tuesday.

A broader wave will move through mid-late week, bringing a chance of light rain/snow to the area later Wednesday into Thursday. Currently seeing a 20-40% probability of exceeding 0.10" of liquid equivalent in the ensembles, with less than 20% probability of exceeding 0.25". Given our mild temperatures, some of this precipitation could fall as rain, so any snowfall should be on the light side.

While clouds/precipitation Thursday could hold temperatures a bit cooler than the NBM highs in the 40s, overall above normal temperatures are favored through late next week and into next weekend as ensemble 850mb mean temperatures remain in the upper third of climatology for mid-February.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Band of MVFR stratus has been sliding slowly east through the early morning, now located east of TAF sites, though may still bring brief MVFR conditions to KFSD through 14Z. Remaining stratus is expected to gradually thin and diminish through 18Z, leaving VFR conditions through the remainder of this TAF period. Will have to monitor trends for late tonight-Sunday morning, though, as some models indicate additional stratus developing west of the James River after 08/06Z, which could impact KHON very late in this TAF period.

Southerly wind gusts 20-30kt develop quickly across central and eastern South Dakota this morning, with gusts 20-25kt expanding east of I-29 by midday. Gusts will diminish just as quickly as sunset approaches this evening, with light winds turning to the northwest as a front moves west to east across the forecast area tonight.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.