textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of light snow and wintry mix moves through the area today. While snowfall amounts of an inch or less are expected for most, isolated higher totals are possible. A glaze of ice is possible as sleet and freezing rain mix in.

- Conditions trend warmer towards the end of the week with many locations warming into the 60s and 70s late this week into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Very few changes for the incoming band of snow and mixed precipitation. Models still saturating from the top down as warm air advection aloft moves through, resulting in surface temperatures being the last to respond. With the environment well below zero, light snow will be the main precipitation type as the precipitation fights through some lower level dry air. Areas south of I-90 appear to have a more stubborn low level dry layer while areas north of I-90 saturate the low levels more easily. Regardless, precipitation amounts will be on the light side with this fast moving band of snowfall and brief icing. Most locations will see less than an inch with a slightly better chance for 1-1.5" north of I-90 into southwest MN. While winds will be a bit gusty, around 25-30 mph, they should not play a major roll. With all of this in mind just anticipating short term, 1-4 hours at any given location, minor impacts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A colder day continues! Taking a look across the area, much colder and quieter conditions persist this afternoon with most areas sitting in the single digits to low double digits. While conditions will gradually warm into the teens to low 20s for the day, there likely won't be much relief from the cold as increasing northwest winds keeps a bite around for most of the day. Unfortunately, once we lose diurnal heating this evening, it'll be back into the freezer for the night as lighter surface winds and lingering cold air advection (CAA) help temperatures plummet into the single digits on either side of zero with the coldest conditions expected across southwestern MN. As a result, we'll likely see a return to below zero wind chills tonight with values in -5 to -15 degree range expected for most areas. However, the coldest conditions will likely coincide with our deepest snowpack which is situated across southwestern MN. Lastly, refreezing snowmelt could lead to scattered slick spots in any areas that see any melting today due to the sun angle.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Looking into Tuesday, our main focus continues to be on our next precipitation chances (50%-80%). Looking aloft, northwesterly flow will help usher in another shortwave across the northern and central plains. As increasing lift and frontal forcing interact with the strong warm air advective (WAA) regime, pockets of light snow will develop across central SD by mid-morning then gradually spread southeastwards into our area throughout the day. While snowfall amounts are expected to be mainly light with an inch or less of snow expected, warming 700-800 mb and surface temperatures according to soundings could lead to a transition to a sleet and/or freezing rain mix at times on the backside of the system which also could result in up to a glaze of ice in some areas.

Nonetheless, any impacts are expected to be minor with mainly temporary visibility reductions with falling snow and additional slick spot being the primary hazards. With this in mind, make sure to take it slow when making those evening commutes! Looking into the midweek, building heights over the Desert Southwest will keep us in continuous northwesterly flow. However, as WAA continues to build through midweek; we'll likely follow a warming trend as our snowpack continues to diminish into Wednesday. With this in mind, expect highs to gradually increase from the upper 20s to low 40s on Tuesday to the 50s to potentially low 70s by Thursday with the warmest conditions along the Missouri River Valley.

THE WEEKEND: Heading into the extended period, cold fronts will swing through on both Friday and Saturday. However, they will be moisture starved according to soundings. Shifting gears to temperatures, the stretch of above normal temperatures will continue through at least Saturday with highs mainly in the 60s to mid 70s. With this in mind, we'll have to watch for a few records on Friday especially in Sioux Falls (73|2022), Mitchell (77|1994), Sioux City (79|2015) Nonetheless, a pattern shift will be on the horizon as quasi-zonal flow returns by Sunday behind the previously mentioned cold front leading to a return to milder temperatures in the 40s to 50s heading into the new week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A band of snow will move through the area today with MVFR conditions expected within and just behind the band of snow. A brief period of mixed precipitation will also be possible as the backside of the band of snow moves through. Southerly winds will likely gust to 25 to 35 mph at times today. After about 3z, VFR conditions are expected.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.