textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Blizzard conditions are expected for the entire forecast area. These conditions begin late tonight and persist through Sunday night before ending across the area. The combination of strong winds and snow will result in difficult to impossible travel.

- Snowfall amounts will span a large range across the area. Locations along and south of I-90 will see between 1 to 3 inches. Locations north of I-90 will see up to 2 to 6 inches, with the higher amounts up to 6 to 12 inches residing across southwest Minnesota.

- Strong winds and heavy snow are in store for this system with gusts up to 40-60 mph. The strongest winds look to occur south of I- 90 though gusts up to 55 mph are expected north of the interstate.

- With breezy winds persisting through Sunday night, wind chills down to -15F to -25F are expected.

- Dry conditions and a warming trend is expected for the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

This mornings light snowband has lifted north of the area this afternoon. Light snowfall between a half an inch to about an inch and a half has been reported from this band. With partly sunny skies in place and temperatures that have warmed to the mid 30s to up to about 50F, some of the snow will melt. The band will remain north of the area for the rest of the daylight hours before the mid level low begins to push into the area. This will tighten the mid level thermal gradient and lead to a restrengthening front. Thus, frontogenesis (FGEN) will intensify as this band begins to start sinking south/southwestwards into the forecast area. Locations along highway-14 will see snow during the late evening timeframe. With temperatures both at the surface and aloft remaining above freezing, rain looks to develop south of highway-14. As the system translates southeastwards, temperatures will cool throughout the night. This will allow for the rain to quickly transition to snow though locations along I-90 in southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa still look to see a 1 to 2 hour long window of freezing rain. This looks to result in a light glaze of ice before precipitation transitions to snow.

Winds will be strengthening during this period of time though the strongest winds will arrive for the afternoon timeframe. The strongest forcing for ascent will arrive during the morning timeframe. This will also be the same period of time when the heaviest snow falls. Snow will begin to exit the area from northwest to southeast through the afternoon hours. Snowfall rates will be coming down during the afternoon hours but with the winds being at their peak intensity with gusts up to 40-60 mph, blowing and drifting snow is expected even in the areas where snow has finished falling. There could be additional snow showers during the afternoon hours though this will be dependent on how saturated the low levels remain. If enough saturation can be present to generate a tiny bit of instability, then snow showers will be possible. If the dry air winds out, then little if any snow showers will be possible. Currently favoring a dried solution at this time but will keep an eye on model trends.

Winds will be on the decline through Sunday evening though still remaining breezy, contributing to blowing and drifting snow, mainly east of I-29 where winds will be the strongest. At the same time, temperatures will be falling during this period of time with low temperatures bottoming out in the positive and negative single digits. The cold temperatures and breezy winds will result in wind chills down to -15F to -25F. When all is said and done, snowfall amounts are expected to range quite a bit with locations generally along and south of I-90 receiving 1-3 inches of snow. Locations north of the interstate will see higher snowfall totals up to 2 to 6 inches with the highest amounts up to 6 to 12 inches expected over parts of southwest Minnesota. Thus, the Blizzard Warning has been expanded now to cover the entire forecast area. A High Wind Warning has been issued as well for most locations south of I-90. The Blizzard Warning is in effect from 10 pm this evening all the way through 7 am Monday morning. The High Wind Warning is in effect from 7 am Sunday through 1 am Monday.

Monday itself will be a cold day with high temperatures only warming to the single digits to low 20s. With continued breezy northwest winds in place, wind chills will persist for the entire day though not as cold as they were in the morning. Low temperatures will again be cold with lows falling to the positive and negative single digits.

Temperatures will begin to warm on Tuesday as upper level ridging builds over the western CONUS. Warm air advection (WAA) will strengthen aloft, pushing 850 mb temperatures up to -2C to +10C. Mixing these temperatures to the surface will result in near seasonable to above average high temperatures in the low 30s to mid 50s, warmest across south central South Dakota. At the same time, there could be some mixed precipitation because of the WAA in place. Depending on how thermal profiles shake out, could see the warmest temperatures across south central South Dakota. Currently looks like this will mainly be a mix of rain and snow but the nose of the WAA may make for a small area of mixed precipitation as temperatures warm. Any amounts are uncertain at this time given remaining variance in the overall evolution of the system.

Upper level ridging continues to strengthen across the southwest CONUS for the rest of the week. This will result in warming temperatures through the rest of the week with high temperatures warming all the way back up to the 40s, 50s, 60s, and even 70s possible through the middle of the week. Temperatures further warm to the 60s and 70s for the end of the week. The ensembles support this warm as they show a broad 50-90% chance for high temperatures to break 60F next week, especially towards the end of the week. With northwest flow in place aloft, the middle and end of next week looks to remain dry.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

We are mainly at VFR conditions to begin the period, but conditions will rapidly deteriorate tonight as a blizzard moves into the area. A few rain showers will be possible this evening ahead of the snow, with the potential for a few thunderstorms mainly over northwest Iowa. Chances were too low for thunder to include in the KSUX TAF at this time, but trends will be monitored. Before any rain transitions to snow, there will likely be a brief period of freezing rain and/or sleet, mainly focused over areas east of I-29 where a glaze of ice may accumulate.

The main round of snow will drop into the Highway-14 corridor by the mid-evening hours and move from northwest to southeast through the night. As winds pick up into the day on Sunday, visibility will likely drop to a quarter mile or less across a large part of the area. Left quarter mile visibility out of the TAF at KFSD and KSUX at this time until I have greater confidence in the timing and the snowfall rates as these areas will generally see lower snow amounts than areas north of I-90. Even after snowfall ends from west to east through Sunday afternoon, strong winds will continue to cause visibility reductions through the end of the period, especially in areas that receive the most snowfall.

Speaking of winds, we'll continue to see an increase in gusts into tonight, reaching up to 35 kts by 6z tonight and then to 40-45 kts by 12z. The strongest winds by the daytime hours on Sunday will be located mainly south of I-90, where we could see gusts up to 50 kts. Winds will turn to the northeast through tonight and then to the northwest through the day Sunday.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Blizzard Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ050-057>067. High Wind Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ067-070-071. Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ068>071. Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for SDZ040-056. Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ038-039-052>055. Winter Storm Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for SDZ050- 057>061-063>065. High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ050-063- 068-069. MN...Blizzard Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for MNZ098. Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for MNZ071-072-080-081- 089-090-097. IA...Blizzard Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for IAZ001-012. High Wind Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032. Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for IAZ020-031. NE...High Wind Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ013-014. Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ013-014.