textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures through next Saturday, 10 to 20 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday.

- Precipitation chances remain very low until late next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 852 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Low level pressure gradients will remain tightened through the rest of this evening and night, keeping breezy winds going through the night. Still expecting 20-35 mph wind gusts through the night but locations along the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota may see higher gusts up to about 45 mph. Thankfully, these strongest gusts will only persist for a few hours through about about midnight or so before waning through the night.

Gusts will continue to slowly weaken through the morning hours on Sunday. A weak cold front will push into the area by Sunday afternoon, turning winds to out of the northeast in its wake. These northeast winds will be much weaker than the southerly winds out ahead of the boundary. These southerly winds will continue to gust up to 20-30 mph for the afternoon timeframe. Temperatures will remain consistent with highs in the 60s with some locations across central and south central South Dakota seeing highs peak in the low 70s. The warmer temperatures will result in somewhat lower humidity values values down to about 30-50%. With breezy winds, warm temperatures, and somewhat lower humidity, locally elevated fire danger is possible during the afternoon hours. Winds will drop off during the evening and the boundary layer stabilizes. With weak surface troughing over the area along with light winds and clear skies, low temperatures look to fall to the upper 30s to low 40s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Strong southerly flow remains in place through Sunday as a jet max tracks by to the north along the Canadian border. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible along the Buffalo Ridge tonight, with the better chances for the higher winds this evening into the early overnight hours. This will bring milder lows tonight, generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with highs Sunday warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s, warmest west of the James. As this jet max shifts east of the area, a weak front will sag into the area and will help to diminish the stronger southerly winds. This will likely lead to more lows on Monday morning in the upper 30s, but not as cold as this morning. With a somewhat slow recovery to southerly flow temperatures will be a touch cooler and close to the seasonal normals in the lower 60s.

Monday night into Tuesday southerly flow increases and brings warmer readings back into the area. Highs will generally be 65 to 70 degrees.

A quick moving trough will swing through Tuesday night into Wednesday and bring a very small chance for very light rainfall amounts. For now will leave any mention out of the forecast, but the slightly better chances will be in northwest IA.

Very mild air will build into the area Wednesday into Saturday with highs very likely in the upper 60s to mid 70s each day. With strong southerly flow on a few of the days overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s, about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Will need to keep an eye on the fire weather potential late week into the weekend as fuels continue to cure and harvesting activities peak.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Southerly winds remain elevated late this evening. These winds will remain elevated through the night with gusts up to 20-30 knots. Isolated stronger gusts up to about 35 knots is expected along the Buffalo Ridge. Despite the breezy surface winds, some low level wind shear (LLWS) is in progress due to winds at about 2,000ft aloft strengthening to 40+ knots. The LLWS will wane tomorrow morning. A boundary will push into the area by tomorrow afternoon. Winds ahead of the boundary will remain out of the south and continue to gust up to about 25 knots. Behind the boundary, winds will turn northeasterly and be much weaker in magnitude. Winds overall will through tomorrow evening to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.