textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring a low chance (20%) for flurries to snow showers Friday evening into Saturday. No accumulation expected.

- Saturday remains the coldest day in the 7 day forecast with highs in the 20s. A persistent warmup begins Sunday and continues through the middle of the week with highs back to the 40s.

- A sharp downturn in temperatures will be possible by the end of next week with a risk of scattered snow showers by Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

THIS MORNING: Upper troughing continues to move away from the region with breezy northwest winds subsiding. An area of clearing will move east across the CWA allowing lows to quickly drop towards the teens by daybreak west of I-29.

TODAY: Light and variable winds turn westerly by mid-day, again pushing high temperatures into the 30s and even 40s. However we're already seeing the signs of the next upper trough crossing the Northern Rockies in the form of increasing mid-lvl clouds over the western Dakotas. Mid-high cloud spread eastwards through the day, before a very narrow corridor of slightly lower clouds on the leading edge of dPVA arrives by mid-afternoon. Soundings really show a struggle for any precipitation to reach the ground, so will generally limit PoPs to sprinkles or slight chance.

TONIGHT: The aforementioned shortwave pivots towards the Western Great Lakes Friday night, deepening quickly as it tracks east. Strong low-lvl cold advection passing through NE South Dakota should lead to development of scattered snow showers through the higher terrain areas of the Coteau des Prairies Friday evening into Saturday morning.

SATURDAY: A second and more narrow corridor of light snow is expected to develop through western and central South Dakota by daybreak Saturday driven partially by low-lvl frontogenesis but also on the favorable side of an elongated band of mid-lvl vorticity associated with the aforementioned upper trough. Snow amounts will be light, but a dusting to half inch of snow could be possible in far south central South Dakota Saturday. Elsewhere, soundings indicate mixing upwards of 875mb tapping into a stronger core of 30 to 35 knots of flow. Given just modest cold advection, will hedge wind gusts slightly to the 75th percentile of the NBM. Highs Saturday rise in to the 20s to lower 30s.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: The upper trough moves east quickly Sunday allowing heights to rise and low lvl warm advection spread through the Northern Plains into the new work week. Temperatures quickly rise into the 30s and 40s Sunday and Monday. The lack of snow cover, dry fuels, warming temperatures, and breezy to gusty winds Sunday and Monday will push GFDI levels towards the high mark at times.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: The long wave pattern will begin to shift as we approach the middle of next week, with a high amplitude wave pattern forming across the Lower 48. The passage of an initial upper trough Tuesday will bring a return of scattered very light rain/snow showers by Tuesday. As a deeper long wave trough begins to form over the eastern half of the Lower 48 by Wednesday, we'll see increasing risks of another short spell of colder than normal temperatures arriving by the end of next week, along with stronger northerly winds and occasional snow showers.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 507 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

VFR conditions will persist through much of Friday. Mid-lvl clouds gradually thicken and become overcast through the day as winds remain variable. Those winds will turn westerly in the afternoon as ceilings briefly lower even further. A few sprinkles or flurries could be possible into the evening.

VFR conditions will persist through the overnight hours as cold air filters southward on a brisk northerly wind.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.