textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Roller coaster temperatures are expected for the week ahead with spotty chances for precipitation throughout mid-week. Better chances fall along the Missouri River Valley Monday and into northwest Iowa on Tuesday, both of which could be light snow or a rain/snow mix.

- Warmer days Wednesday and then Friday into the weekend. Will also be on the breezier side, resulting in areas of elevated fire danger. The weekend will see breezier conditions but also higher surface dew points.

- A potential pattern change late week into the weekend may bring better chances for precipitation to the area during this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 947 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

After another breezy day, winds have been gradually relaxing this evening and will continue to do so heading into daybreak Monday. An area of low stratus has been creeping southward towards the Highway-14 corridor this evening, and this combined with an area of mid level clouds spreading into central and southeastern South Dakota may help prevent maximum cooling from being realized for most of the area. That said, only minor adjustments to the temperatures for tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 20s north to lower to middle 30s south. A band of light rain and snow looks to develop near and along the Missouri River Valley overnight and spread southeastward, but a dry sub cloud layer will initially prevent most of this from reaching the ground.

As we head into the daytime hours Monday, the column will saturate and forcing will increase in the DGZ and allow for the precipitation to reach the ground. This will likely be the form of snow or a rain/snow mix at first, turning to a rain/snow mix if not already, and then turning to rain over mainly northwest Iowa by the afternoon. Even as temperatures warm, snow will last a bit longer than you might expect given the air temperatures due to wet bulbing. Precipitation will taper off through the afternoon as forcing weakens and dry air wins out again. All told, snow accumulations are expected to be very light given the relatively mild temperatures and higher April sun angle, a few tenths of an inch at best focused over south- central South Dakota where the snow will be co-located with the coldest temperatures. Otherwise, Monday will be a chilly day overall with highs generally ranging from the mid to upper 30s north to lower 40s south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A quick shot of mid level frontal forcing dives south through the Missouri River Valley later tonight into Monday morning. Fairly strong forcing within and just below the dgz as well as some very weak instability just above the front should allow for a band of rain and snow to develop. For now amounts look very light as the forcing moves through fairly quickly.

Monday should prove to be a chilly day with northerly flow and quite a bit of mid and high level cloudiness. Highs generally in the 30s closer to highway 14 with 40s near and south of I-90.

A weak wave will move through the area on Tuesday and bring a quick shot of scattered rain and snow showers. As the wave moves through mid level warm air advection increases, especially Tuesday afternoon and evening near and east of I-29. Given the strength of the warm advection and the weak elevated instability a few locations could see a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation. Will need to keep an eye on surface temperatures as parts of southwest MN could sneak into the lower 30s which might introduce a little light freezing rain. Overall in that Monday into Tuesday night time frame a quick inch or so of snow will be possible near KSUX into northeast NE.

Additional weak upper level support coupled with weak instability will bring another shot for precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday, with some chances lingering into Thursday. Temperatures will be seasonably mild with highs in the 60s on Wednesday and 50s on Thursday.

The focus continues to be Friday into the weekend as upper level flow turns more southwesterly allowing better low and mid level moisture to transport northward. This brings an increased chance for rain and possibly a few thunderstorms during this time. Will continue to see a 40 to 60 percent chance for precipitation during this time. Ensemble output still indicating quite a few members supporting a half an inch to an inch of rain over this time with the higher amounts and better probabilities for an inch or more across northwest IA.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Patchy areas of stratus are moving into southwest Minnesota to start the period, and additional areas will move into parts of eastern South Dakota heading into the daylight hours Monday. Confidence has increased enough to include a brief period of this MVFR stratus to impact KHON for a couple of hours later this morning, but doesn't look to quite make it as far south as KFSD at this time.

A band of light rain and snow showers will develop across the Missouri River Valley heading into the daytime hours today, bringing locally MVFR conditions including at KSUX early this afternoon. This band of precipitation will fade through the mid to late afternoon. Winds today won't be as strong as they have been the past couple of days, gusting up to 15-20 kts out of the north-northeast this afternoon.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.