textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Drizzle continues today mainly west of I-29, with rain expanding over areas east of I-29. Light to moderate showers may stretch back as far as the James River this evening and tonight.

- Northwesterly winds remain breezy Tuesday and Wednesday with gusts between 30-40 mph expected. Locally higher gusts around 45 mph possible across south central SD Tuesday.

- Cool and dreary conditions continue through Wednesday with greater rain coverage expected through the day. Rain finally moves east by Thursday. Additional rainfall less than an inch through Thursday night. Greatest totals generally north and east of a Huron to Salem to Sioux City line.

- Some hard freeze potential builds for the end of the work week ahead of a clipper system that could bring rain (and maybe a snowflake) to the area into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Patchy drizzle continues, with light rain showers slowly moving north across northwestern IA and northeastern NE. Focus of the rain today remains near and east of I-29 with the better saturation and PVA. Elsewhere, soundings continue to show periods of drizzle to light showers into the afternoon/evening. Still expect coverage of rain to increase tonight into Wednesday with the mid/upper level low remaining just to our east advecting numerous waves through the pattern and increasing moisture. Troughing and rain finally pulls east Thursday.

Additional rainfall amounts generally 0.25" to 0.75" across the area through Thursday night, lowest for south central SD and increasing as you move north and east. Areas near and north of US Hwy 14 as well as east of Sioux City to Spencer have at least a 50% chances of seeing totals over an inch through Thursday night.

Northwest winds remain breezy through Wednesday, with the strongest winds today. Thirty to 40 mph gusts today with some gusts in south central SD around 45 mph. Gusts closer to 25-35 mph Wednesday, as high as 40 mph in south central SD.

Warmest temperatures today as we remain steady or slowly fall during the day. Highs in the 40s and 50s through mid week. Lows fall into the mid/upper 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: A surface front continues to push eastward through the Tri-State area early this afternoon. Clearing ahead of this front all the way northwards towards Highway 14 has allowed MLCAPE values to push as high as 500-800 J/KG which will allow for low- topped convection to form. While the risks for any significant hail/wind are low, some concerns continue for the potential of stretching updraft and potential funnel/tornado development in a narrow corridor of the CWA. With 0-3km MLCAPE near 300-500 J/KG, 0-1 km helicity does rise to nearly 150-200 M2/S2 depending on the degree of SE surface winds near the boundary. Localized VGP values surge past 0.5 M/S2, maximized south of I-90 towards the MO River and into the Highway 20 corridor of NW Iowa through 5pm.

TONIGHT: The passage of the front, and associated mid-lvl dry slot, will bring an end to the precipitation in most locations. However the aforementioned frontal boundary will keep persistent shower and isolated thunderstorms in the far southeastern CWA into the early overnight hours. As low-lvl moisture returns from the NW overnight, saturation depth may increase enough for occasional spits to drizzle by daybreak. NW winds will also increase through the region behind this boundary with the latest CAMS indicating potential for 40 mph gust at times and localized higher gusts in the higher MO River valley areas.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Weak low-lvl lift persists through Tuesday, but I'm not anticipating widespread rain at this point. Soundings suggest widespread low-stratus and even the potential for occasional drizzle into the afternoon. By Tuesday evening and night, deeper moisture advects back north as a weak wave pivots into the Mid-Mo River valley bringing persistent and more widespread rain risks into the Tri-state area overnight.

Wednesday continues to look like a very cool and wet day as the merger of several upper waves into a larger upper trough over the Plains, aids in developing a large TROWAL across Minnesota and into the eastern Dakotas. Depending on the wobble of the upper trough, mostly light precipitation may be near continuous through the day on Wednesday as breezy to gusty northwest winds continue. Expect minimal temperature rises both days, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s likely.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: A brief period of dry conditions returns for the end of the week as mid-lvl ridging moves into the Plains. Cooler Canadian high pressure sinks southward into Friday, allowing the potential for a widespread frost to a hard freeze Friday and Saturday mornings.

The next risk for precipitation won't arrive until Saturday into Sunday as a fast moving clipper dives southeast. At this point precipitation may stay in the form of liquid, but with H850 temperatures falling below zero there might be a non-zero risk for a few snowflakes if precipitation arrives overnight.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions through the period, with low stratus. Occasional LIFR ceilings expected. Patchy drizzle this morning into the afternoon, with more bonafide showers across northwestern IA and northeastern NE. Showers/rain expands west into tonight, with more isolated to scattered activity toward the James River. Coverage continues to expand into early Wednesday morning. Drizzle and rain may reduce visibility into the IFR category at times.

Breezy northwesterly winds prevail through the period. During the day, gusts 25-30 knots anticipated. Winds remain breezy but taper down slightly overnight, before increasing again at the end of the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.