textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy to gusty conditions will return to start the week with wind gusts between 35-45 mph expected through Tuesday. This along with drier conditions will lead to elevated fire danger.

- Outside of a few smaller rain chances on Monday (10%-20%), minimal rain chances are expected into the weekend.

- After a cooler midweek, highs will gradually increase into the upper 60s to low 70s heading into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A mild and breezy day continues! Taking a look across the area, clearer skies and an abundance of sunshine continues this afternoon as mid-level ridging slides overhead. This along with a westerly component to the wind should allow temperatures to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s for the day. From here, expect the quieter conditions to persist into the overnight hours as a combination of southerly surface winds and an approaching warm front help keep temperatures above normal with lows mainly in the mid to upper 40s tonight. Lastly, cloud cover will gradually increase from west to east overnight as a mostly dry cold front progresses through the area to start the day.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Looking into the new work week, an active pattern continues aloft as a trough ejects out of the Rockies and undergoes cyclogenesis over the northern plains by Monday. As a cold front swings through the area during the morning hours, could see a few isolated showers developing mainly east of the James River Valley. However, with such limited saturation according to soundings; not expecting much more than a few hundredths of accumulation at best mainly east of I-29. Otherwise, the main story continue to be the stronger winds. As the previously mentioned system begins its occlusion process, a tightening SPG and strengthening LLJ will help northwesterly winds sharply increase throughout the day with wind gusts in the 35-45 mph range expected across most areas. While the strongest wind speeds will likely be focus along and west of I-29, can't completely rule out an isolated pocket of up to 50 mph across southcentral SD. With this in mind, some spots could briefly touch advisory criteria at times. However, decided to hold off on any wind headlines at this time since coverage will mostly likely be spotty at best.

Nonetheless, with drier conditions and fuels in play; the windy conditions will promote high to very high fire danger in the afternoon to evening hours. With this in mind, make sure to limit any activity that could create a spark as a fire could quickly spread out of control if not contained. Looking into Tuesday and Wednesday, an influx of cooler air behind the front will lead to highs mainly in the 50s to low 60s. The cooler conditions will also extend into the overnight hours as lows fall into the upper 20s to 30s leading to our first widespread freeze of the season. With this in mind, make sure to dress appropriately as conditions will be on the chillier side during those morning commutes. Looking aloft, the newly formed upper level low (ULL) will continue to gradually rotate eastwards over the next few days. As a little ribbon of dPVA rotate around the low, can't rule out a few spits by Tuesday morning mainly across southwestern MN. Otherwise, expect the windier conditions to hang around for most of the day on Tuesday before quieter conditions return by Wednesday.

THURSDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, quieter conditions return as the previously mention ULL is replaced by a building upper-level ridge. Increasing subsidence with the ridging should keep any precipitation chances at bay through at least Saturday. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to run on the seasonal side as daily highs continue to sit in the upper 50s to low 60s. Lastly, could see more precipitation chances return from late Sunday into Monday as a negatively tilted trough ejects out of the Rockies.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, clearer conditions continue this afternoon with light westerly winds. Expect these conditions to continue into the evening hours with minimal cloud cover. From here, the nocturnal LLJ will strengthen leading to a few hours of LLWS at KHON and KFSD. Cloud cover will also increase from west to east a cold front swings through the area. Lastly, westerly winds this afternoon will be come more southerly overnight with northwesterly winds returning by Monday morning to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.