textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- QUIET AND MILD: Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.

- MINIMAL RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND: Besides a few sprinkles to light showers mainly north of I-90 tonight, most areas should remain dry into the weekend.

- COLDER AIR AHEAD: A strong front drops temperatures significantly Thursday and Friday to near normal. Temperatures will gradually warm back to near to above normal by the end of next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 832 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A cold front is beginning to move into south-central South Dakota this evening, which will continue sweeping across the area through the night from west to east. This front is shifting winds to the northwest and also brining an uptick in wind speeds immediately following the frontal passage. The speed changes will be more notable tonight along the Missouri River Valley and then into tomorrow morning for northwest Iowa. Winds in these locations look to gust between 25-30 mph, but up to around 35 mph in south-central South Dakota over the next few hours.

Seeing some returns on radar in northeastern South Dakota and even extending into the south-central part of the state. With a dry sub- cloud layer in place, most of this will not reach the ground as it moves across our area. However, the saturated layer may extend deep enough towards the surface over mainly southwest Minnesota and so a few bonafide rain showers will be possible there. Soundings also show about 50-200 J/kg of elevated CAPE farther south and east, so can't rule out very isolated rain showers elsewhere. Any sprinkles/light rain should be east of the area by sunrise. Forecast morning lows are still in good shape. Look for mostly lower 40s heading out the door Wednesday morning for work or school, but some upper 30s can be expected mainly north of I-90.

Wednesday will be cooler than the past couple of days, with highs expected to climb to the upper 40s to mid 50s. The real pattern change will be felt Wednesday night into Thursday, when colder air moves in along with some elevated winds. This could result in wind chills down to the upper teens to around 20 degrees during the Thursday morning rush mainly over parts of southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa where the breeziest conditions will likely be. Though this is not unusual for this time of year, it will certainly be a very different feel out there Thursday morning than what we may have grown accustomed to as of late. So be sure to dress accordingly!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A shortwave trough continues to push into the Northern Plains this afternoon. No rain is associated with the wave at this time but it is bringing thicker, high level cirrus with it. This cirrus has kept temperatures on track with highs maxing out in the 50s and 60s. As the wave pushes through the forecast area tonight, thermal profiles will cool to saturation in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). However, thermal profiles below the DGZ look to be dry. Thus, little if any rain will reach the surface. If it does, it will be no more than some sprinkles. A cold front will push through the area tonight due to it being tied to the wave. The cloud cover and elevated winds behind the front will keep low temperatures on the warm side with lows only falling to the upper 30s and low 40s.

Temperatures will remain cooler than what we have seen from the weekend and Monday with highs falling to the upper 40s and 50s on Wednesday. A second cold front and associated push of cold air advection (CAA) will push through the area on Wednesday, resulting in temperatures falling to near normal for the rest of the work week. Lows will bottom out in the 20s to low 30s with highs only reaching into the 40s. Winds will be light on Thursday as surface high pressure pushes through the area. But breezy winds look to return to the area along and west of the James River on Friday. This area looks to see wind chills below 40F for the day.

Temperatures look to moderate to near to slightly above normal for the weekend as upper level ridging pushes eastwards. Highs will remain in the 40s to low 50s with lows falling to the 30s. Saturday will be dry but a shortwave trough will push through the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some wrap around moisture is possible from this system as is somewhat supported by the ensembles. They show a close to zero probability for rain totals to exceed a tenth of an inch. The GFS ensemble is the outlier as it shows the highest probabilities up to about a 40% chance for exceeding the same amount of QPF. If any rain does make it to the forecast area, it looks to be very light at this time.

Temperature trends look to persist into early next week. Medium range guidance continues to vary regarding how the upper level pattern will evolve through early next week. Broad troughing along the western CONUS could push eastwards and bring chances for rain back to the area. Too uncertain to make any changes to the forecast but something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions expected tonight across the area, along with a few sprinkles mainly near and north of the Highway 14 corridor and into southwest Minnesota. Some areas of stratus look to develop during the day on Wednesday, though uncertainty remains as to the extent of it and whether or not is drops to MVFR conditions or stays at low VFR conditions. Right now, it looks like the better chances of MVFR stratus will be over southwest Minnesota over the course of the day Wednesday, but this area will likely be refined over the next couple of TAF periods.

Winds will be turning northwesterly through the night as a cold front moves across the area. Wind gusts to around 25 kts are expected along the Missouri River Valley into northwest Iowa following the frontal passage late tonight into the early afternoon on Wednesday. Lastly, LLWS will impact KSUX for a few hours late tonight.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.