textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated sprinkles to possibly flurries move west to east today into this evening. Little to no accumulation expected.

- Elevated fire danger is expected today, especially west of I-29 where southerly winds and lower humidity reside. Dry, warm, and periodically breezy to windy conditions lead to periods of elevated fire danger through the work week.

- No impactful weather systems are expected through next weekend, but temperatures remain quite variable. Probabilities for more than 0.10" of rain remain less than 20% through next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Forecast for the next 24 hours remains mainly on track, although have seen some locations this morning fall a bit more than expected with clear skies and light winds, with a few locations falling into the upper teens and lower 20s. Even light winds are leading to wind chills in the lower teens, so bundle up this morning. We'll warm today into the 50s for most of the area, falling back into the 30s tonight.

Minor changes to the forecast today/this evening, mainly focused on pops and weather type. Reduced pops to 20% or less and kept mention to isolated given the profound dry layers which will limit any precipitation today and into the evening. A majority of guidance keeps the region dry or limit liquid accumulation to 0.01", so feel confident messaging more sprinkles/flurries over showers. Also tried to limit p-type to just snow or rain (removing some brief sleet mention). Not much change in the fire danger today, with High to Very High fire danger across the entire area. Greatest concern is west of I-29 and across south central SD where southerly winds gust to 35 mph and RH falls to around 30%.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

THIS Afternoon: Mid-lvl shortwave moving east early this afternoon will take the very light snow/rain eastward with it. However, extensive cloud cover remains in place and will have a profound impact on high temperatures. This cloud cover will gradually mix out from southwest to northeast, but according to some higher resolution guidance, may stall later this evening over SW Minnesota and NW Iowa.

TONIGHT: If we can clear out clouds, then a fairly sharp evening fall in temperatures may take place. Have favored lower guidance for temperatures. After midnight, southerly winds may return to areas along and west of the James River, signaling a stabilization or reversal of the diurnal drop in those areas.

MONDAY: A couple minor concerns on Monday, focused on afternoon/evening sprinkle and shower potential, along with increasing fire danger risks. Broad warm advection will begin to increase through the morning hours over the Plains as mid-lvl heights grow. Towards the low-lvls, lee side trough development will induce a breezy southerly wind in areas west of I-29 by mid-day. An increase in mid and lower clouds will develop on the aforementioned edge of warm advection, with this area moving east in the afternoon and evening. While model QPF shows hit or miss totals, a deeper look at the meteorology suggests that low-lvl lift may be sufficient enough when combined with weak mid-lvl dPVA to produce scattered showers. Soundings show considerable variability in top-down saturation, with greater chances for column saturation as echos cross I-29 and move into MN/IA towards the evening. Ensembles support a 40%+ chance for measurable rain, so have boosted PoPs to at least get a mention of light rain in the forecast.

As far as fire weather is concerned, soundings also show potential for 25 to 30+ mph wind gusts to form west of I-29 in the afternoon as mixing heights increase to 800 mb. Deterministic NBM seems to be on the low side of guidance, so have blended winds upwards a few MPH. Dew points will also lower at peak heating with RH falling near 30% in the afternoon. While not "critical" fire weather risks will increase into the GFDI "very high" category.

TUESDAY: A stationary boundary will develop from the Black Hills region into the Minnesota Arrowhead by Tuesday, keeping warmer southerly flow pushing northward. Breezy southerly winds will again climb near the 20-25 mph mark in the afternoon which will result in high temperatures in the 60s. Low-lvl winds at the top of the mixed layer are lighter than Monday, so high end gust potential will be lower. That said, with RH value again near 30 percent, fire danger will approach elevated levels especially south of I-90.

WEDNESDAY: That stationary boundary will sink southward by Wednesday bringing a higher likelihood of lighter and more variable wind directions in the day. However, the low-lvl airmass remain very warm, and dry ground favors temperatures rising into the upper 60s to 70s. Would not be surprised to see 80 degrees along the Missouri River once again.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Strong model agreement continues to point towards another gusty cold front moving through the region Thursday. A warm overnight will give way to falling daytime temperatures and potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. ECE/GEFS both indicate 40%_ probabilities for these higher wind gusts, with deterministic models pushing even higher gusts. The biggest forecast challenge will be the diurnal trends in both temperatures and relative humidity, which if align up correctly, could pose elevated fire danger throughout the entire region in the afternoon Thursday. While a low chance, a few passing sprinkles could be possible with this front, but given strongest mid-lvl dPVA well north of the area, any measurable precipitation should stay away from the CWA. Temperatures fall once again on Friday with high temperatures slightly below normal in most locations.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: The roller coaster temperature ride of the week will continue into next weekend. After a below normal Friday, we're already seeing signs that mid-lvl ridging will increase once again for next weekend. This shift will push broad warm advection through the Plains and lead to rising temperatures back towards the 60s and 70s. At this time, little to no precipitation chance is in the forecast through next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the period. Light and variable winds become southerly shortly after sunrise and increase through the morning. Good mixing will result in gusts between 20-30 kts along and west of I-29. Highest gusts over south central South Dakota could reach as high as 35 kts. To the east of I-29 gusts will generally be 20 kts or less. Winds decrease through the late afternoon and evening, but remain breezy through the end of the period.

There is a low chance (<30%) of sprinkles to light rain beginning over central South Dakota around noon on Monday. Showers progress east through the day. The main uncertainty with showers is the dry subcloud layer present. It may be that precipitation will evaporate and produce virga and localized higher gusts of 40 kts. Should the dry layer be overcome it will most likely be along and east of I-29 in the late afternoon and evening. Little accumulation is expected, a trace to a tenth of an inch. Showers push east of the region by the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.