textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to below normal temperatures will continue well into next week with highs mainly in the 70s to 80s expected.

- Scattered showers will return to the area by Monday afternoon. While severe weather is not expected, an occasional stroke of lightning and strong wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible.

- More concrete shower and thunderstorm chances (50%-80%) will return Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time severe weather is not anticipated but once again gusty winds to 50 mph with these showers and isolated storms will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest winds will diminish this evening with light winds expected through the night. This should allow for solid radiational cooling, with Monday morning temperatures bottoming out in the 40s in most spots.

A quick moving system will move through the area on Monday which will bring about gusty winds again, with a few gusts around 30 mph possible. Model soundings continue to indicate weak surface based instability, mainly late afternoon into the evening. This will bring about the threat for a few showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm. While severe weather is not expected, a nice inverted v sounding suggests some stronger winds gusts, likely 40 to 50 mph. The better chances for these gusty winds should be near and northeast of a Huron to Spencer IA line.

The models continue to bring through the next system of interest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm advection increases Tuesday night ahead of the wave with mid level lapse rates increasing to about 7.5 degrees C. This may lead to some elevated showers or a very isolated thunderstorm. Weak instability still appears to be a limiting factor for development. By Wednesday afternoon this system is blowing by and severe chances appear to be pretty low. However, similar to Monday some weak surface based instability with a dry sub cloud layer and a strong westerly unidirectional wind could lead to gusty winds with any afternoon or evening shower that could develop, possibly gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

Thursday and Friday look generally dry and pleasant with highs Thursday into the 70s and Friday mostly in the 80s.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns for the weekend but for now confidence is low to moderate on location and timing. Some hints that the better chances may reside across Nebraska. Otherwise temperatures remain seasonally mild.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest winds will gust to around 25 mph at times today and Monday should see gusts around 30 mph. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.