textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning through Sunday. Heat index values as high as 115 degrees.

- While details are uncertain and confidence remains low, if storms develop Sunday evening into Sunday night, some may be strong to severe with damaging winds, isolated large hail and locally heavy rain possible.

- Still a good chance for highs in the 90s next week in most locations. Additional heat headlines are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Heat:

Not much change as dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s provide the area with an oppressive environment. As temperatures rise into the 90s today and Sunday, heat indices will jump to between 100-110 degrees in most locations. The hottest conditions continue to look to be along the James and Missouri River valleys.

For now Monday through Wednesday should see highs generally in the 90s but with a bit less humidity. This will keep the heat index in the 90s as well. Will have to keep an eye on the dew points trends as a few more degrees of moisture will push heat indices above 100.

A wave moving through on Wednesday will likely bring slightly cooler air into the area so the second half of the week may not be quite as hot.

Thunderstorms:

Overall a capping inversion will be in place for the area through the afternoon, so development is not expected. One exception may be in and around Gregory/Charles Mix counties where model soundings hint at possibly breaking the cap. If this can happen, an isolated storm with the potential for wind gusts around 70 mph are possible. CAPE values only running about 500-1500 J/kg with fairly weak shear, but with a very dry subcloud layer. Otherwise, development should take place west of the area and move in after about 6-8 pm. This cluster of storms will likely be a bit pulsy, but with better instability and still a fairly significant sub cloud dry layer wind gusts to 75 mph will be likely with the potential for a cold pool to develop. Hail to the size of quarters will also be possible, but wind will be the main threat. Many of the latest 12z models are jumping on this wind threat and the HRRR has been very consistent bringing this wind threat right down I-90 this evening.

Some lingering showers are possible from midnight into early Sunday morning, but are not expected to be severe and may even have trouble reaching the ground with a significant dry layer below. Still a lot of question marks regarding the severe threat tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. For now a significant amount of dry air in the low to mid levels should provide enough capping to avoid afternoon thunderstorm development. If a storm could develop, 2000 J/kg CAPE, 30-40 knots of deep layer shear and a significant dry layer in the lower levels would support wind gusts to 75 mph and hail to the size of half dollars. Otherwise during the later evening and overnight hours the models are really backing off on any potential for the area and keeping the isolated to scattered activity to the northeast.

A wave will move through the area Wednesday into Thursday morning and be the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. This will be the next threat for possible severe storms. The main threat for showers and thunderstorms should come on Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Scattered showers will continue to push through the area into the early morning hours today, with additional showers possibly redeveloping after sunrise through the late morning. Thunder threat with all this activity will generally remain quite isolated. Stronger thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon over northern Nebraska and perhaps as far north as southern South Dakota and push eastward into tonight. Trends will be monitored, but chances of this impacting our area are low at this time, generally less than a 25% chance of occurring.

Winds could gust up to 20 kts at times this morning through the early evening. Winds will be generally out of the south through the period, though the wind direction may become a bit erratic in central South Dakota late this afternoon/early this evening as a weak boundary impinges on this area.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071- 072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013- 014.