textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds increase tonight, gusting up to 40 mph (locally 45 mph) at times late tonight into tomorrow morning, especially along the higher elevations of southwest Minnesota and nearby parts of east-central South Dakota and northwest Iowa.

- Mild temperatures will persist across the area over the next several day with most sites sitting between 10-20 degrees above normal. The warmest conditions will likely occur by Monday with moderate to high probabilities (50%-80%) of highs in the 60s along the Missouri River Valley.

- With well above normal temperatures ahead, a few new record highs could be set or tied by Monday across the area.

- While mostly quiet conditions are expected into the new week, a pattern shift during the early week could lead to light precipitation chances (20%-35%) returning between Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

It's been a mild day across the area, with highs having made it to the 40s, 50s, and even 60s! Quiet weather is expected for the rest of this afternoon and evening. A secondary cold front will push through the area tonight, bringing some fairly strong cold air advection with it. Winds around 850 mb will be up to around 50-60 mph, which could translate to areas of surface wind gusts of 40-45 mph late tonight and into tomorrow morning. HREF probabilities of wind gusts over 45 mph peak at 20-60%, focused over the higher elevations of southwest Minnesota, the Coteau des Prairies into east-central South Dakota, and parts of northwest Iowa. These stronger wind gusts should only last for an hour or two over any given location, so not widespread nor prolonged enough to warrant issuing an advisory at this time.

Low-level clouds will move back into the area behind this frontal passage, and soundings indicate some instability within this layer. This could result in some sprinkles heading into the day tomorrow. At this point, the stratus deck should remain shallow enough to prevent drizzle from developing, but if it does, temperatures will need to be watched closely. Below freezing temperatures are expected mainly along and northeast of a Huron to Madison to Spencer line by tomorrow morning, so this would be the area of focus if drizzle were to develop as it would thus be freezing drizzle in some spots. Currently think this threat is quite low, but trends will be monitored. Any chance of precipitation would come to an end through the early to mid afternoon as we lose saturation in the lower levels. Highs tomorrow will be colder due to the cloud cover and the cold frontal passage, with highs ranging from the upper-20s in southwest Minnesota to the low-40s along the Missouri River Valley.

Tomorrow night will be one of the chillier nights over the next several days as high pressure settles into the upper Midwest. Look for lows to range from the low-10s east to the mid-20s west by sunrise Saturday. We'll warm up nicely though as the surface high shifts east, allowing for the return southerly winds. Warm air advection also increases ahead of a weak upper wave, and all this will combine to get temperatures to rise into the low-30s east to the low-50s west Saturday afternoon. We remain on the mild side on Sunday, but Monday is when things really look to heat up. The probability of highs in the 60s has increased farther northeastward with the latest NBM. We're now looking at a 50-80% chance of highs in the 60s along the Missouri River Valley on Monday, with a 20-40% chance of this occurring as far north of a Huron to Sioux Falls to Cherokee line. This warmth may tie or break some record highs, so stay tuned to the latest forecast!

An active upper-pattern will continue through the next work week, bringing some precipitation chances to our area. The NBM is most excited about the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe for our next best chance (20-35%) of precipitation, which is largely unchanged from its previous couple of runs. Looking at deterministic guidance, it diverges significantly and flip-flops around from run to run and so uncertainty is high and thus confidence is low on any precipitation potential. GEFS, GEPS, and the EC ensemble shows a roughly 30-60% chance of measurable precipitation on Wednesday and again on Thursday, but drops to a 20% chance or less when you start looking at precipitation exceeding a tenth of an inch for both days. So bottom line, keep up to date with the latest forecast, but no significant accumulations of anything expected at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions persist into the evening and very early overnight hours. We'll begin to see a front sweep from northwest to southeast after 10pm, crossing the forecast area and bringing wind gusts of 40+ mph into mid-morning Friday.

Behind this front, the rapid development of MVFR ceilings should take place, with stratus spreading through the area through daybreak.

Winds will weaken by noon, with some breaks in the stratus expected in areas east of the James River through the afternoon hours.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.