textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Southerly surface will increase this morning with gusts between 30-40 mph expected for most areas. An isolated pocket of higher (45+ mph) will be possible across southwestern MN through late morning.

- A few sprinkles to very light shower are expected mainly north of I-90. Any accumulations will be minimal.

- Mostly dry and seasonable conditions will persist into the new week with highs mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

UPDATE

Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The forecast remains mostly on track with many areas waking up to temperatures in the 40s to 50s this morning. The main concerns for the day continue to be the stronger winds and low precipitation chances. Starting the winds, a tightening SPG ahead of an approaching cold front will help southeasterly surface winds strengthen this morning with gusts between 30-40 mph expected for most areas. With short-range guidance continuing to show a narrow corridor of slightly stronger winds (40-50 mph) developing in our higher elevation areas along the Coteau Des Prairies, decided to issue a short-fuse wind advisory for portions of southwestern MN and far eastern SD from 7 am to 1 pm. With this in mind, make sure to secure any loose items!

Otherwise, increasing warm air advection (WAA) along with southerly surface winds should lead to slightly warmer conditions with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the day. Lastly, a few sprinkles to very light showers could develop north of I-90 ahead of an approaching cold front starting as early as mid-morning. With accumulations expected to be minimal, went ahead and stripped out categorical POPs in favor of more sprinkles since soundings continue to show a very dry sub-cloud layer. Lastly, lighter surface winds will return tonight with the potential for some patchy valley fog.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: Mid-lvl clouds associated with increased warm advection on the 700:600 mb layer will continue to spread north and east. Satellite showers increasing cloud growth north of I-90, so anticipating very light showers to sprinkles will accompany this cloud cover eastward, focused primarily north of I-90 towards Highway 14 (Huron, Brookings, Marshall) into very early evening. QPF amounts will remain minimal.

TONIGHT: Lee side troughing over the western High Plains will begin to shift eastward overnight, allowing an increased SPG to keep a rather breezy southeasterly wind through the area. Unlike Friday, morning, low temperatures should be much warmer through the region. The highest gusts may be near the higher terrain areas of the Buffalo ridge where 30 to 40 mph gusts are possible.

SATURDAY: A surface front slowly crawls east on Saturday, keeping breezy to gusty south and then southwest winds through the CWA. Soundings suggest a period of stronger mixing from mid-morning through early afternoon with a few 40+ mph gusts could be possible (highest in the Ridge areas). With less cloud cover ahead of the front, and deep mixing we should see a rise in temperatures towards the 70s in the afternoon. The populated NBM sits at the 75th percentile, but with the increased mixing and warm low-lvls would not be surprised to see highs a bit warmer and have nudged us into the 90th percentile in a few areas. Have also lowered dew points slightly. The arrival a subtle shortwave by mid afternoon could lead to scattered sprinkles to light showers along and north of Highway 14 in the afternoon and into SW Minnesota in the evening. QPF will be very light.

SATURDAY NIGHT: The passage of the front will bring slightly cooler temperatures southeast overnight. Would not be surprised to see patchy fog by Sunday morning as winds weaken.

SUNDAY: Cooler Canadian high pressure arrives for Sunday, featuring light winds and plenty of sunshine. This should be an absolutely beautiful fall day with highs in the mid 60s.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: A VERY quiet forecast remains for most of next week as broad mid-lvl ridging over the CONUS forces stronger jet stream energy north of the Canadian border. With the prevailing flow forcing any meaningful Gulf air away from the area, and no ability to bring any tropical air from the East Pacific, we're expecting a dry week. In fact the latest GEFS/ECE ensembles paint less than a 20% chance for >0.10" over the next 10 days in the Tri-State area.

Temperatures will be influenced by the passage of several weak fronts through the week. A return of gusty winds on Monday marks the first dry frontal passage Monday night. A second front passes through the area by Thursday. Temperatures are already favored to be warmer than normal through the region, and would not be surprised to see a few of those breezier days even warmer. 850mb temperature anomalies are expected to be at or above the 75th percentile through the week, further supporting the arrival of an extended period of above normal temperatures into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Breezy conditions are expected to start the TAF period, with the strongest winds expected over the higher elevations of the Coteau des Prairies. This is where gusts could approach 40 kts at times through the morning hours, especially if a shower can develop during that time frame (<20% chance). Strongest wind gusts elsewhere will range top out around 30 kts. The strengthening low level jet will also result in LLWS concerns through daybreak.

Direction-wise, southerly winds can be expected through this morning. A cold front will be sweeping across the area from west to east through the afternoon and evening hours, turning winds to the northwest as it moves through. Winds will also diminish gradually through the afternoon hours, though a secondary peak of gusts to 25 kts will be possible west of the James River immediately following the frontal passage Saturday afternoon.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ040. MN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ071-072-080-081-097. IA...None. NE...None.