textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record heat and strong winds will continue for the rest of the afternoon. Winds will weaken this evening as temperatures cool.

- The hot, dry, and windy conditions will also continue elevated fire danger and blowing dust potential for the rest of the afternoon hours as well.

- A cold front remain on track to move through the area on Sunday and Monday, bringing cooler, near seasonable, temperatures into next week.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected on Monday and Tuesday before chances for rain increase by the middle of the week. While a 30-60% chance for rain is in the forecast, details regarding this chance for rain can still change.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Elevated fire danger continues this afternoon with southwesterly winds gusting to 25-40 mph while humidity levels have fallen to 25- 35%. More details about the fire danger can be found in the fire weather discussion below. Highs have warmed to the 80s with a few locations breaking into the low 90s. These warm temperatures have warmed to near record highs for today. Could see a few records broken before temperatures begin cooling this evening. Should see winds remain steady to slowly weakening for the rest of the afternoon hours before more noticeably weakening this evening after sunset. Humidity will be increasing during this period of time as well, putting an end to the fire danger threat for today. However, a tighter surface pressure gradient (SPG) will remain in place through the night. This will keep elevated southerly winds through the night, resulting in another mild night with lows only falling to the 60s. These temperatures will again be near record warm low territory.

Sunday will be a much nicer day as low level pressure gradients relax across the area. There will still be marginally breezy southerly winds with gusts up to 20-25 mph. High temperatures will remain warm in the low to mid 80s thanks to the the thermal ridge axis sitting overhead. A cold front will be beginning to push into the area from the west. Thankfully, this front will deliver noticeably colder temperatures with overnight lows falling down to the 50s and 60s.

The front looks to push through the forecast area on Monday, leading to slightly cooler temperatures, but still above average highs in the upper 60s, 70s, and 80s. The coolest temperatures will reside in the northwest part of the forecast area. A weak mid level wave will pass through the area behind the surface cold front. There may be just enough moisture to squeak out some light showers along and north of highway-14. The ensembles show a broad 50-90% chance for rainfall totals to exceed a hundredth of an inch. Their probabilities quickly diminish to near zero for amounts to exceed a tenth of an inch. Rainfall chances (15-30%) will be highest during the daylight hours.

Tuesday looks to be a dry day as upper level ridging slightly strengthens ahead of a deepening upper level low over the southwest CONUS. Withe the previously mentioned cold front through the forecast area, highs will be closer to seasonable in the 60s to low 70s.

Chances for rain begin to return to the area on Wednesday as the previously mentioned upper level low begins to eject into the Plains. However, medium range guidance continues to show a large variance in how this upper wave will evolve. Some show the wave continuing to push eastwards while others show a closed low developing and cutting off the mean flow. The ensembles also reflect these possibilities as well with the GFS ensembles having the wave continue to push into the Plains while the Euro and Canadian ensembles show a cut off low developing. Each of these models respective machine learning (ML) counterparts also show the same evolution. Looking to the clusters shows that the most favored cluster has the upper low closing off and detaching from the mean flow aloft. That said, the most favored cluster has this closed low just northeast of the four corners area and bringing increasing chances for rain to the forecast area. While this does look to be a more favorable solution, did not want to stray from the NBM's PoPs (30-60% chance) at this time as changes in the upper level patterns evolution remains possible. That said, the potential for rain and associated cloud cover looks to keep temperatures near seasonable in the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday. Friday looks to be the coolest day as broader troughing may encompass the Northern Plains. Should this play out, then highs may fall to near to below average in the 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period. LLJ causing LLWS to impact areas mostly east of Highway 81 and portions of northeast NE starting around 1z lingering until 12z. Gusty winds up to 32 knots remain for portions of the CWA through the period, the most intense gusts between 18-00z between Highway 81 and Highway 59.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

We continue to see near critical fire danger conditions this afternoon across the area. Temperatures have warmed to the 80s and low 90s in a few locations while dew points have dropped to the upper 40s and low 50s. This is resulting in humidity values down to 25-35%. Winds remain out of the south/southwest with gusts up to 25- 40 mph across the majority of the area. Locations in southwest Minnesota will see the highest gusts up to about 45 mph though isolated stronger gusts remain possible for the rest of the afternoon hours.

The main ingredient that continues to keep fire danger capped at high is fuels. Webcams and satellite imagery continue to show green fuels in place. Despite the green fuels, the main concern continues to be fields that are currently being harvested, which could result in locally drier fuels. Blowing dust also remains possible through the rest of the afternoon timeframe as well. The near critical fire danger will continue through the rest of the afternoon hours before nocturnal stabilization will increase humidity, ending the fire danger threat.

CLIMATE

Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Record High Temperatures:

October 10: KFSD: 88/1928 KSUX: 92/1928 KHON: 92/1928 KMHE: 93/1928 October 11: KFSD: 90/2015 KSUX: 91/2015 KHON: 91/1910 KMHE: 95/1910

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

October 10: KFSD: 64/1928 KSUX: 66/1930 KHON: 60/1947 October 11: KFSD: 67/1997 KSUX: 66/1997 KHON: 68/1997

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.