textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold wind chills of -5 to -15 are expected again overnight into Monday morning.

- Mild and breezy conditions during the early week could promote some locally elevated fire weather concerns mainly west of I-29.

- Periods of light snow will return from Wednesday into Wednesday night with moderate probabilities (30%-60%) of a tenth of an inch of liquid accumulations according to ensemble guidance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Cold surface high pressure settles southward tonight which will bring cold overnight lows in the single digits, a few locations likely below zero. With some light winds, wind chill values will dip to -5 to -15 at times. By Monday afternoon southerly return flow will set up across most of the area, strongest near and west of the James River. This will create some elevated fire danger in this area. Otherwise temperatures will claw back to around normal in most locations, climbing above normal in south central SD.

Tuesday should see the highest threat for high to very high fire danger. Model soundings indicate the potential for wind gusts around 40 mph with humidity dropping to 25 to 40 percent in most locations in the afternoon. If mixing remains more limited wind gusts will likely be closer to 25 to 30 mph, but with little to no snow cover the deeper mixing is expected.

A fast moving system Wednesday into Wednesday night continues to bring increased confidence for an area of light to moderate snow. Initially there could be a battle of low level dry air, but with a fast moving upper level jet expected to drop southeast and colder air settling in with decent frontal forcing, snow should develop. Fairly decent agreement in the EC Ensemble and GEFS with 30-60 percent probabilities of at least a tenth of an inch of liquid, with the better chances near and north of I-90. Will need to keep an eye on the frontal band as some of the models are bringing the max forcing closer to I-90. Still a few days out.

Behind this system temperatures will rebound quickly back above normal with 40s and 50s on Thursday and 50s and 60s on Friday. If snow on Wednesday is more widespread this will eat into these milder temperatures.

Some disagreement amongst the models for next weekend, but starting to look like near to below normal temperatures with only very small chance for light precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1114 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Generally VFR through the period. Brief MVFR ceilings will be possible over parts of southwest MN early this afternoon and some patchy MVFR clouds could develop overnight, but for now not expecting any MVFR ceilings.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.