textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered snow showers early this morning transition to narrow northwest-to-southeast snow bands through early this evening. Snowfall amounts will generally remain less than an inch, but localized areas around 2 inches are possible.

- While snow amounts alone would produce only minor impacts to travel, strong winds gusting 40 to 60 MPH with any falling snow will result in rapidly changing visibility, dropping as low as 1/2 mile at times.

- Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with wind chills dropping to the teens and 20s below zero by Saturday morning.

- Additional light snow chances and strong winds return Sunday, with moderate to high (40-70%) chances of wind gusts over 45 mph mainly west of the James River.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 445 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Temperatures are still in the lower-mid 30s across the forecast area early this morning, but the secondary cold front is on our doorstep, approaching our far northwest counties as of 4 AM. We have already seen one area of snow showers swing through the CWA with one vorticity lobe earlier this morning, with another batch of snow showers accompanying the next wave and aforementioned cold front moving across the Highway 14 corridor. These areas of snow showers associated with the waves will bring brief drops in visibility, with reports so far around a mile or slightly lower upstream.

As this morning progresses, the secondary push of cold advection will make low level thermal profiles neutral-slightly unstable, with horizontal convective rolls (HCR) paralleling the northwest to southeast wind flow becoming more likely from mid-morning through the afternoon. Latest high-res models continue to focus a potential for more persistent narrow bands developing through central to south-central South Dakota and into north-central Nebraska this morning, with a relative minima of activity from the James River to I-29 and into northwest Iowa. A secondary favored area remains focused across portions of Minnesota, and these 2 favored areas look to have the greatest potential for snowfall amounts topping an inch, perhaps locally topping 2 inches toward south-central South Dakota. These localized higher amounts could result in more persistent low visibility issues, especially in south-central South Dakota where the stronger winds also remain favored. If this occurs, cannot rule out a small area of blizzard conditions developing, and later shifts will have to monitor closely should a localized upgrade to the Winter Weather Advisory become necessary.

These HCR may linger into this evening, though with loss of "heating" and slightly weaker winds expected, evening activity should be weaker/less intense. That said, could still see very light accumulations after 00Z.

As temperatures falling near to slightly below zero tonight, breezy winds will push wind chills into the teens to 20s below zero. Some areas could approach Cold Weather Advisory criteria, though current forecast shows wind chills only briefly reaching criteria around daybreak Saturday. With ongoing headlines, opted to hold off on cold weather headlines for now. Saturday will be a cold day, though, with highs only in the single digits to around 10 above and daytime wind chills remaining below zero.

Areas that receive 0.5 inch or more accumulation, and more so locations with more than an inch, could see periodic blowing snow continue through the weekend, as northwest winds remain on the breezy side into Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, timing of another clipper looks to bring warming temperatures early in the day, followed by falling afternoon temperatures, along with another round of gusty winds and spotty light snow chances. Even without much additional accumulation, may continue to see blowing and drifting snow in areas which receive those localized higher amounts today.

The balance of next week currently looks relatively quiet, and aside from cooler temperatures again Monday, daily highs look near to only slightly below late January normals.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Areas of light snow with embedded snow showers/very narrow snow bands will move across the region through this TAF period. The narrow bands combined with strong northwest winds gusting 35-45kt will result in highly variable visibility over time and space. While there is potential for LIFR-VLIFR visibility in heavier or more persistent snow bands, the probability of one of these bands impacted a single TAF site is low. TAFs favor a more likely scenario of low VFR-MVFR prevailing visibility with brief periods of IFR 1-2SM visibility in snow showers and/or blowing snow.

Gusty winds and a lingering chance for snow showers continues into this evening, but winds should be somewhat lighter 25-35kt and snow showers generally weaker with MVFR visibility more prevalent.

Ceilings throughout the period will vary from low VFR to MVFR, with very isolated IFR ceilings possible.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ050-052- 057-058-063-064. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ071- 072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ013- 014.