textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain below normal through Saturday. Temperatures moderate to near and above normal Sunday into early next week.

- Patchy light snow is possible late tonight into Thursday, with the better chances west of the James River Valley. Accumulations around an inch or less expected through Thursday night.

- Additional light snow chances continue this weekend, although details remain uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

THROUGH THURSDAY: Very subtle wave moves through the forecast area this morning, so can't rule out some very patchy flurries if they can fight the drier air. Winds are light to calm, and have aided in temperatures falling into the single digits where skies are clear. Temperatures have been bouncing overnight with the cloud cover, and have seen wind chills in the teens below.

Most of the day will be quiet with surface high off to the north and east. Northwesterly flow aloft continues, and we'll see mid clouds around. Temperatures today in the teens and 20s, possibly near 30 in south central SD. Winds remain light through the day.

For tonight, mid level wave sweeps through western SD into central NE, and surface high moves south. 700 mb wave moves through central SD as well, with WAA. Most of the forcing is broad, so expect some light snow to develop late tonight into Thursday morning, mainly focused in south central SD into the MO River Valley, stretching into the James River Valley. Some soundings show that we may be a bit slower to saturate lower levels than current expectations, with snow starting closer to daybreak than during the overnight hours. Will be something to keep an eye on. Snowfall amounts of around an inch or less are expected through Thursday night. Aforementioned high pressure moves south, keeping temperatures cold Thursday and Thursday night with highs again in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits below zero. Wind chills Thursday night into Friday morning may drop as cold as -20 F.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Guidance is coming into a bit more agreement in the timing of the rotating trough axis swinging through the Plains/Midwest on Friday although there is some uncertainty in how far west this swings. This could bring some light snow chances to the area, with the better forcing along the MO River Valley and into NE. Strong CAA and more northerly flow lead to colder temperatures Friday into Saturday. Wind chills Friday through Friday night remain near to below zero, as cold as -20 F Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Surface high pressure slides through the region Friday night through Saturday, although guidance varies on how quickly this moves southeast. Northwesterly flow aloft builds as ridging develops over the western US. We'll begin to see near to above average temperatures return Saturday into Sunday as more southerly low level flow takes shape. A couple of wave are progged to move through this flow, with the more defined of these waves Saturday late afternoon through Sunday. Did not make changes from the NBM given the differences in both the deterministic and ensemble data leading to lower confidence. With the 28.00z suite of ensemble data, the Canadian ensemble shows much of the area with moderate (40-60%) chances of exceeding a tenth of an inch of QPF this weekend, whereas the GFS ensemble is lower in percentage, and the ECMWF ensemble has a more narrow areal focus. Probabilities drop off quickly above a tenth of an inch, so currently not expecting more than some light snow at this time.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Ridge axis pushes east through the early part of next week with continued near to above average temperatures. Dry conditions prevail Monday, but light precipitation chances may return Tuesday as a wave moves through the northern Plains. Details remain uncertain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1058 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Light snow will develop later tonight into Thursday morning with the better chances west of the James River. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible during this time and could extend to near and just east of the James River. East of this are snow is unlikely, other than a few flurries and VFR conditions are expected.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.