textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- An active pattern aloft will lead to rain and snow chances tonight into Wednesday. While snow amounts of 1 inch or less are expected for most areas, pockets of 2+ inches will be possible mainly across southwest Minnesota.

- High to Very High fire danger is expected by Thursday as strong winds and lowering humidity values return to the area. However, increasing rain chances could dampen some of the potential.

- Periodic rain chances will return by late Thursday with mainly light amounts expected.

- All interested parties should monitor the forecast for next weekend. A more organized storm system in the Northern Plains may impact travel, and will bring much cooler temperatures to begin next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 455 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Light radar echoes from high-based clouds north of I-90 early this morning, but little indication of precipitation reaching the surface so far. Will continue to carry a few flurries until into the morning. Attention then turns to a mid-level wave and front which will produce a swath of light rain to light snow moving across the forecast area tonight into Wednesday morning. Forecast snow accumulations remain on track with most areas seeing less than an inch, but locally higher (1-2") in parts of southwest Minnesota before the light snow ends midday Wednesday.

No significant changes to the mid-long range portions of the forecast this morning. Active mid-upper level flow will bring a couple shots at light rain/snow Thursday-Saturday, with the main focus on a stronger wave moving through the northern Plains this upcoming weekend. Details are still coming into focus for this system, but those with travel plans will want to monitor the forecast as moderate chances for accumulating snow and gusty winds could impact travel.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

THIS Afternoon: A backdoor cold front has pushed through the area this afternoon, slowing the warming of temperatures in area along and north of I-90. The residual warm air aloft and modest mixing will still allow high temperatures to push into the 50s and 60s.

TONIGHT: Northerly winds continue tonight, actually increasing in gust potential after dark as mid-lvl vorticity passes to the north. That said, low temperatures will struggle to fall through the 40s and into the 30s as mid and upper cloud cover increases through the night.

TUESDAY: Sloped mid-lvl frontogenesis increases along the SD/ND border early on Tuesday in response to the arrival of a mid-lvl area of vorticity crossing the Northern Rockies. This initially E-W band of precipitation will begin to shift southeast late in the afternoon as the wave approaches. Some higher resolution guidance also shows lower level frontogenesis closer to I-90 in the morning that could develop high based virga/sprinkles trailing from central MN southwest into eastern South Dakota. Northeasterly wind and increased cloud cover will hold down temperatures slightly, with highs only in the 40s to 50 in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Precipitation will move from NW to SE through the evening and overnight hours, with light rain/snow mixture turning to snow as deeper cold air aloft sinks southward. Moisture will remain limited with this system, with no direct feed from the Gulf as convection along a cold front in MO/KS develops and interrupts flow. The end result will be low QPF totals with the probability of >0.10" around 40% in LREF guidance. Some higher resolution guidance does show QPF totals as high as 0.15" (around 75th percentile of HREF), with HREF probabilities of >0.10" over 60% along a focused area from Marshall to Sioux Falls to Le Mars to Windom. With marginal surface temperatures near freezing, snowfall totals will also remain light with a dusting to 1.5" possible by time precipitation exits to the east at daybreak. Have adjusted SLR and changeover temp slightly to bring more snow in than rain during the bottom of the diurnal temperature curve overnight.

WEDNESDAY: A broad mid-lvl trough passing through the region on Wednesday will keep temperatures cooler, but still above normal. Northwest winds prevail, with guidance showing the potential for very light QPF tied to weak mid-lvl warm advection sliding through the region in the afternoon. The spatial variance in QPF in model data is suggestive of broad but low PoPs potential and will be refined closer to the development timeframe. Temperatures remain in the 40s.

THURSDAY: Mid-lvl heights rise Thursday in response to a building ridge of the West Coast and upper trough moving through the Canadian Rockies. The rapid deepening of surface cyclogenesis over Montana and North Dakota will spur an intense SPG further south, drawing warm and gusty southwest winds into the Dakotas. With high temperatures surging into the 60s, we'll need to take a careful look at RH and winds in the afternoon. Soundings would suggest that the deterministic NBM wind gusts of 26-30 knots (near the 50th percentile) may end up being too low, with the 75th percentile guidance favored. This would result in wind gust closer to 35-40 mph at times in the afternoon. NBM dew points in the upper 20s to lower 30s are sitting near the 75th percentile of the NBM, and have favored lower values based on synoptic setup. The fly in the ointment will be the positioning of the elevated and surface warm front which could draw in both cloud cover and even scattered showers to the north of where the boundary forms. Currently, this could be positioned near the I-90 corridor, pushing the greatest fire danger concerns to areas in the south.

FRIDAY: Light rain moves through areas along and north of this aforementioned boundary into Friday morning, with light QPF amounts once again favored. High pressure then arrives for most of the daytime hours of friday favoring a drop in highs back to the lower 40s to near 50 degrees.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: "Beware the ides of March" may once again prove true next weekend as we're keeping a close eye on the potential for a larger storm system moving into the Plains. Medium range models are in stronger than normal agreement pulling a progressive upper trough out of the North Pacific and across the Rockies and into the Plains by Saturday. Behind this trough a 160 knot upper jet will help deepen this wave as it crosses the Plains, to what degree is the biggest question of the extended forecast. LREF guidance and their incorporated ensembles suggest a higher than normal confidence forecast with nearly all ensembles indicating a >60% probability of >0.10" of precipitation into Sunday. Some spacial agreement also persists in higher totals >0.50" with focus along and north of I-90. Obviously a LOT can change over the upcoming days, but given the potential combination of snow and wind this system could bring to areas of SD/MN, it's not a bad idea to begin monitoring if there are regional travel plans this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon will transition to mainly a mix of MVFR to IFR conditions mainly due to increasing precipitation chances. Light rain will quickly transition to light snow as this developing precipitation gradually works southeastwards this afternoon/evening promoting MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys. Using high-resolution guidance, timed out the arrival to each TAF site. Should see things gradually clear from northwest to southeast during the morning hours of Wednesday. Otherwise, marginally breezy northeasterly winds will become more northwesterly heading into Wednesday to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.