textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain showers are possible south of Highway 20 this afternoon. Little to no accumulation is expected.

- Dry conditions, warm temperatures, and breezy winds gusting 25-35 mph Wednesday afternoon will result in near critical to critical fire conditions. Please use caution and report any fires immediately.

- Precipitation chances remain in the forecast from Thursday onward. Saturday and Sunday a few stronger storms may be possible.

- A gradual warmup through the second half of the week with temperatures returning above normal, and exceeding normal next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Mid-level height falls continue this afternoon ahead of an approaching trough out of southwest Canada. As the pressure gradient increases southeast will increase, gusting at 25-35 mph. As the surface low pressure approaches out of the west strong WAA will take place as a warm front moves north. Modest moisture return in the low levels will result in persistent clouds that may produce virga to light drizzle along the front for areas south of I-90 and along and east of I-29. Very little if any accumulation is expected with only 0.01-0.02" of QPF available. Those clouds will also limit our warming potential, allowing highs to only climb to the 40s. Winds remain breezy and well mixed overnight coupled with continued WAA, resulting in mild lows in the 30s.

Wednesday morning the surface low will pass through the region dragging a cold front with it. As it does so winds will become northwest and decrease briefly. A strong push of CAA behind the front will work to bolster the LLJ and surface winds, resulting in stronger afternoon gusts of 25-35 mph again. The strongest winds will be located over central south Dakota and east to about I-29. Winds will drop off quickly overnight and become light and variable. In addition, behind the front very dry air advects in effectively cutting off shower chances for most of the region. Moisture begins to pool ahead of the front over central Iowa and may flow in as far west as Highway 60 in northwest Iowa. A few isolated to scattered showers are possible here in the late morning to early afternoon, however chances are low at less than 25%.

Despite northwest winds, highs are still expected to climb into the 60s south of I-90 with the warmest temperatures over southwestern Iowa. To the north, mid to upper 50s are expected. These warm temperatures combined with strong wind gusts will result in falling afternoon relative humidity values. Near critical to critical fire conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon. Please use caution and report any fires immediately. Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow us to cool down into the mid to upper 20s for overnight lows.

Light northerly winds will keep highs a little cooler for Thursday, in the mid 40s to mid 50s. A subtle wave and WAA will move through the region bringing chances for light rain to weak thunderstorms south of I-90, and light snow to the north Thursday afternoon. Uncertainty is high as models have a wide variance in solutions at this time. Friday looks dry as high pressure builds in and temperatures warm into the 50s to low 60s.

This weekend a large upper trough begins to dig in over the Pacific Northwest. As it amplifies and moves slowly east, vorticity maximums will propagate off the parent wave and accelerate over the Plains bringing multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday night. By Monday the main wave ejects out over the southern Plains and another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible. Though it is still too early to say with certainty, increasing potential instability could result in some thunderstorms becoming strong to severe. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, please keep an eye on the weather and know where the nearest shelter is, just in case severe weather strikes.

As far as highs for this weekend, WAA on southerly winds will warm Saturday up into the 60s, with 70s possible west of the James River. Sunday looks to be even warmer, with widespread 70s. Lows both nights will be warm as well, in the 50s Saturday night and 40-50s Sunday night. Highs in the 60s and 70s continue for Monday but a cooldown is in store for Tuesday as another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility to start us out this period. Ceilings will be decreasing as thicker stratus advects in from the south, down to IFR. There are low chances (less than 25%) for isolated to scattered showers over northwest Iowa this afternoon. These are not expected to impact any TAF sites at this time.

Winds are southeast gusting 22-32 kts with highest gusts over central South Dakota. Winds remain breezy through the overnight before a brief lull as a cold front moves through the region early Wednesday morning. Directional shear is most likely, but speed shear is also possible as the front moves through between 08.08Z and 08.14Z. Winds will be northwest behind the front and increase to 20-30 kts with highest gusts west of I-29. Gusty winds continue through the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.