textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Intermittent showers will continue into tonight mainly west of I-29 with light accumulations expected.

- Breezy northwesterly winds will continue through the early evening with gusts between 25-35 mph expected.

- Widespread rain chances (60%-90%) are expected from Sunday into Monday. Confidence continues to increase in accumulative amounts of 1+ inches of rain through Tuesday morning with the focus west of I- 29.

- An active pattern aloft will lead to additional rain chances from Tuesday night into Wednesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Currents & Tonight: Another dreary day continues! Taking a look across the area, a brief break continues this afternoon as drier and cooler air filters in behind a cold front. This along with breezy northwesterly surface winds with gust between 25-35 mph has led to quite the chilly feel this afternoon with highs sitting in the upper 40s to mid 50s west of I-29 and the 60s to low 70s east of I-29. Expect temperature to continue their gradual decline from here. Otherwise, the intermittent showers resume from late afternoon onwards as southwest flow aloft helps additional pieces of energy lift through areas mainly west of I-29 through Sunday morning with mainly light accumulations. Lastly, given the increased cloud cover overnight thinking temperatures won't decrease as fast nor as far as the NBM thinks (mid 30s to low 40s). With this in mind, decided blend in some CONSshort into our MinTs slightly nudge up overnight temperatures into the low to upper 40s

Sunday-Monday: Looking into Sunday, another wet and dreary day is ahead as a subtle 850mb front stalls across our area roughly along a Wagner to Sioux Falls to Windom, MN line. With broad southwesterly flow firmly in place aloft, additional pieces of lift (dPVA) will stream into the warm air advective (WAA) regime along and northwest of this near-surface feature spurring intermittent showers throughout the day within the left exit region of the coupled jet. While mostly light accumulation are expected during this period, should see an uptick in coverage from late Sunday evening into Monday as additional lift arrives and WAA strengthen ahead of the inverted trough axis. Looking aloft, most guidance has the base of the mid-level trough gradually lifting into the Nebraska Pan handle by Monday morning then central and eastern SD by Monday afternoon/evening. While there some questions remains on where the heaviest accumulations set up, its worth nothing that NBM QPF has taken a noticable northwest shift towards the better dyanamics which are west of I-29.

As such, still thinking most areas receive accumulating rainfall through Monday. However, currently thinking the axis of 1+ inches sets up somewhere west of a Yankton to Sioux Falls to Slayton, MN line with the heaviest accumulations west of Highway 281. Everywhere east of this line could be affected by a bit more dry air leading to accumulations of a 0.50" of an inch or less. While not a drought buster, this system will provide beneficial rainfall for parts of the area over a 24-36 hour period. With this in mind, the flood concerns are minimal though some ponding will be possible in some urban and low lying areas. Lastly, expect the cooler conditions to persist for both days given the increasing rain chances with daily highs sitting in the mid 40s to mid 50s north of I-90 and low 50s to low 60s south of I-90.

Tuesday Onwards: Heading into the extended period, quieter conditions will temporarily return for the first half of Tuesday. However, additional showers could develop by Tuesday afternoon along and east of I-29 as a cold front swings through. From here, the quieter conditions should persist through at least Friday as solutions in long-range guidance begins to diverge. Lastly, expect daily highs to remain mainly in the 60s to low 70s with the warmest conditions across northwestern IA.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Mainly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, a mix of low to mid-level clouds continues to sit over the area today promoting VFR to MVFR cigs with a few pocket of showers. While a break is expected through late afternoon, should see more showers develop across Nebraska and South Dakota this evening. Heavier showers by Sunday morning cloud promote MVFR vsbys and cigs. Tried to time out the breaks in the KHON and KFSD TAFs. However, just ended up keeping prevailing showers in at KFSD since thats where the focus will be this evening and overnight. KSUX is on the edge of the precipitation shield for now so kept them dry.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.