textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will remain near to below average into the weekend, with milder temperatures returning for much of next week.

- There are no meaningful precipitation chances expected through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

- A more active weather pattern is looking more likely from the middle of next week into next weekend, possibly centered around Friday/Saturday. Currently thinking rain only.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Surface high pressure gradually shifts east tonight into Saturday, which will allow southerly flow to gradually increase from west to east during this time. WIth lighter winds east of I-29 tonight, cool low temperatures are again expected with lows around 20. West of I- 29 southerly flow will slowly increase and keep lows more in the mid 20s.

While southerly flow increase on Saturday, temperatures will not be much warmer, still only topping out in the 40s. A few gusts to 20 to 25 mph will be possible near and west of the James River.

A weak, moisture starved wave tracks northeast through central SD into MN Sunday into Monday and will further increase the southerly flow, bringing breezy conditions on Sunday and windy conditions on Monday. Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are likely, especially on Monday.

A stronger wave moves northward onto the Plains Tuesday but still appears to struggle with moisture, so precipitation chances will be few and far between. The main thing this system brings is an increase in winds. If everything times out properly we could see gusts of 40 to 50 mph on Tuesday. These stronger winds will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as the wave passes and swings winds around to a more westerly direction.

Mild temperatures continue Thursday into Friday as the system wraps up and lifts east and northeast. Some model variation begins to show up here an how to handle the deepening and exiting of this system while a new larger trough deepens over the Rockies and ejects onto the Plains Friday night into Saturday. While precipitation amounts will be very light for most of the area today through next Thursday, the ensembles as well as AI output are all hinting at a good chance for a system to bring a half an inch of rain or more to the area Friday into Saturday. Given the steep mid level lapse rates some elevated convection will also be possible. For now with a weak northern stream upper level jet, warmer low level air should surge north and remain in place helping to keep the main precipitation type rain. As colder air spills in behind a brief changeover to snow would be possible but for now this does not look like it will bring any moderate or major winter weather impacts to the area. But, this is 7-8 days out so will wait and see how trends pan out over the next several days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Mainly VFR through the period. Some MVFR and possible IFR ceilings will be possible west of the James during this time. Southerly winds will gust to around 25 mph in central SD by late Saturday morning.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.