textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire Weather remains the primary concern over the next several days with very dry fuels, warm and breezy conditions, and little to no precipitation expected.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most likely Thursday and Saturday onward, although each day will pose some threat.

- No impactful weather systems are expected through next weekend, but temperatures remain quite variable. Probabilities for more than 0.10" of rain remain less than 20% through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

No significant changes to the forecast since the evening update. Mid and high clouds are increasing across the area, with temperatures falling into the 30s. Winds have remained quite breezy in the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge, with sustained winds over 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph. These should taper down as we head through the overnight.

Dry conditions and RH around 30% lead to some elevate fire danger along and west of I-29 and into far western IA today. Highs warm in the 50s and 60s. Heed local fire restrictions, as fires may spread quickly despite light winds. Skies slowly clear through the latter half of the day. A mild night on tap with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Mostly dry conditions prevail through the weekend, with some isolated showers across the US Hwy 20 corridor Thursday as surface low pressure slides through the area. However, little to no QPF is currently expected. Dry, warm, and breezy to windy conditions create continued elevated to critical fire danger - especially Thursday and Saturday onward. Temperatures mainly above average, but will fluctuate in how much above average through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A fast moving, very weak piece of energy will move through the area today, producing brief showers and sprinkles. Elevated instability is very weak, but does exist. The sub cloud dry layer should keep precipitation amounts light and brief. Another weak wave will move through the area on Tuesday but has less weak instability and a very elevated dgz, so precipitation very unlikely. Beyond this, Wednesday into the weekend, a few weak waves will move through but as with today's and Tuesday's system, much is lacking so only very light precipitation is possible. No given 24 hour period through the week into the weekend indicates more than a 10 percent chance for a tenth of an inch or more of precipitation.

Otherwise, fire weather will be the main concern for the area this next week or so. Local fuels are very dry and without much in the way of precipitation for many areas this past couple of months fire starts and spread are more concerning than normal for this time of year. Tuesday and especially Wednesday will see above normal temperatures with afternoon relative humidity dropping to about 25 to 35 percent, a little lower on Wednesday. On the good side is winds will not be excessive with gusts more around 20 mph. This should set up high to very high fire danger both days.

Wednesday night into Thursday will see a cold front drop south and while temperatures will be cooler, they will still likely be above normal. With wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and afternoon humidity about 35 percent very high to potentially critical conditions are likely.

Friday will be cooler with temperatures near or below normal and winds down a bit, but humidities will still be fairly low around 30 percent or so.

Dry and very mild conditions continue into the weekend with a good potential for critical to near critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, relative humidity will be bout 25 to 35 percent and winds likely gusting to 20 to 25 mph.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period, with mid and high clouds streaming across the region. Winds this morning remain elevated (sustained 15 knots or so) along the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge, but anticipate these tapering down through the morning hours. Winds through Tuesday night remain light overall with gusts around 15-20 knots. Direction should be southerly for most of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.