textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds will diminish from west to east through tonight, though may still gust as high as 30-35 mph over parts of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota through about midnight.

- The remainder of the work week will feature cooler than normal temperatures and occasional risks of very light rain.

- Warmer temperatures return by next weekend with high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s to 70s.

UPDATE

Issued at 844 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Breezy conditions will continue to diminish from west to east through this evening as the low pressure system associated with the showers and thunderstorms from earlier today pushes off to the northeast. Northwesterly winds look to gust as high as 35-40 mph east of I-29 over the next hour or so, and then could still gust as high as 30-35 mph through about midnight near and east of US Highway 75 where soundings show the potential for a few spots to tap into stronger winds aloft through then. As winds turn lighter late tonight and skies clear, patchy fog is possible. This will be possible mainly west of I-29 where winds turn lighter and clouds clear the quickest. However, winds may remain elevated enough to prevent widespread issues. Trends will continue to be monitored.

Temperatures are still on track to drop to the 30s across the area tonight, with the potential for a few spots dropping to the upper 20s mainly along Highway 14 east of I-29. At this point, these upper 20s if it occurs would only last an hour or two around sunrise Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: Upper level troughing and associated surface low pressure continues to move east and away from the Tri-State area this afternoon. At mid-day we're beginning to see 30+ knot wind develop in central SD, which will begin to extend eastward through the evening hours. Some gusts over 40 knots could be possible through the higher elevation of the Ridge. Temperature will continue to slowly fall as stratus remains in place.

TONIGHT: Subsidence will begin to chew away on lower stratus early this evening, eventually leading to clear skies throughout the CWA near or after midnight. Temperatures may fall below freezing in areas north of I-90. With the recent rainfall and clear skies, should winds fall off adequately, then areas of fog may develop.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: A broad upper trough centered across the eastern half of the CONUS will keep the region cooler than normal through the rest of the week. A few weak perturbations passing through the southern side of this trough will lead to very light rain chances. These rain chances are focused along the MO river valley Tuesday afternoon and evening, most of the Tri-State area Wednesday afternoon and night with these chances continuing into Thursday. Overall QPF amounts will be light with the 24 hour probability of QPF over 0.10" no more than 15% ATTM.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: Confidence in the temperature forecast for the upcoming weekend remains medium at best. Guidance remains split on the potential for the expansion of western CONUS ridging to the east, increasing overall spread in ensemble guidance. That said, as compared to 24 hours ago, the spread has narrowed slightly, with an overall cooling in temperatures in the 25/75th percentile ranges of the NBM. While PoPs remain below mentionable levels, the passages of 1-2 cool fronts Saturday and Monday could lead to future low end mentions in future forecasts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 648 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MVFR to locally IFR ceilings will gradually push out of the area from northwest to southeast through the rest of the evening, leaving VFR conditions behind into tomorrow morning. A weak system will move into the area tomorrow afternoon, bringing the return of MVFR ceilings and a few showers mainly near and southwest of the K9V9 area to end the period.

Northwesterly wind gusts will remain elevated to start the period mainly over the higher elevations of the Coteau des Prairies, with gusts to 35 kts possible in these areas over the next couple of hours. From there, winds will decrease area-wide and remain on the lighter side into the day on Tuesday, still mainly out of the northwest, but variable at times. If winds can go light enough tonight, patchy fog will be possible, but widespread issues look unlikely at this time.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.