textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, breezy, and dry conditions continue into the evening, keeping the fire danger risks elevated.

- Near normal temperatures expected this weekend. Outside of Saturday morning sprinkles, no rain is anticipated.

- Temperatures begin to warm through the upcoming work week, and by the end of the week may be approaching the lower to middle 80s with outside chances of 90 by the weekend.

- Rain chances for the week ahead will be focused on Monday night and again Thursday, though amounts will stay low. Severe weather risks also remain low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: A warm, dry, and windy afternoon continues throughout the forecast area this afternoon. As temperatures rise into the 70s, we'll continue to see RH values fall towards the 20% range. As we reach peak mixing, gusts should begin to top in the 20 to 30 mph range in the Tri-State area. While RFW criteria may be met for a couple hours this afternoon, recent greenup should prevent widespread extreme fire behavior. Soundings continue to show the very low probability of isolated showers popping up after 21Z in areas along but mostly southeast of I-90. Severe storms not expected, but brief 30-40 mph wind gust may be possible.

TONIGHT: Winds settle down this evening, but will remain southwest through the night. This results in warmer overnight low temperatures in most locations.

SATURDAY: By daybreak Saturday, confidence remains high that a weak cold front will settle southward through the area. By 12Z this front may be just north of I-90 bringing with it a change to a northerly surface wind, but also a low probability for high based sprinkles/showers/virga. Once this front clears the area, temperatures slowly warm back to the mid-60s, with breezy northerly winds into the early evening.

SUNDAY: Temperatures remain cool on Sunday under the influence of Canadian high pressure. With a light north wind continuing, high temperatures stay in the middle to upper 60s.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: We'll begin to see a gradual rise in temperatures as mid-lvl heights rise through the Plains. Despite a breezy southeast wind Monday afternoon that could lead to elevated fire danger, high temperatures return to the 70s in most locations with 20-30% probabilities of 80+ degree temperatures in south central SD. A frontal boundary swings eastward Monday evening and overnight. MLCAPE profiles suggest some potential for 500-1000 J/KG through central SODAK, but moisture itself remains very limited and there is also a bit of capping in place. This should limit the overall developmental potential of any activity that tries to develop as the front moves east overnight. Temperatures cool slightly on Tuesday as low-lvl flow shifts to the northwest. The latest NBM suggests potential for 30 to 40 mph afternoon wind gusts, which is a signal within the EC/CMC deterministic and ensemble guidance. The GFS/GEFS is quite a bit lower, but if these winds do develop, then fire danger may be quite elevated through the region. Overall probabilities of exceeding 30 MPH are greater than 80%, with potential of 40+ mph around 10-20%. Winds again turn to the south on Wednesday, keeping high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: While quite a bit of uncertainty remains in the specifics for the end of the week, overall trends in ensemble data suggest a warming trend continues into next weekend. Mid-lvl heights continue to rise through the end of the week, pushing 850mb temperatures into the 20C range by Friday. The presence of several weak mid-lvl perturbations adds some uncertainty to the forecast in regards to thunderstorm and cloud potential. This is partially why the NBM 25/75th percentile temperature spread climb to nearly 10-15 degrees by Thursday and Friday. However, the broad synoptic pattern does seem to favor more convection risks (perhaps even stronger convection) within the region by next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue into the overnight hours. Scattered high based CU will form though the afternoon. Potentially a few sprinkles to showers may form, but the risks are too low to include in the current TAF. Winds will increase through the afternoon hours, gusting to 25 knots at times.

Overnight, we'll see an increase in mid-high clouds as a front approaches. A few sprinkles/showers will again be possible through mid-morning Saturday as winds turn from the west southwest to the north.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.