textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation coverage will likely expand by Tuesday with areas of drizzle west of I-29 and light to moderate showers east of I-29. Additional accumulations of 0.25" to 0.75" of an inch are expected with the highest accumulations east of I-29.

- Northwesterly winds will continue to strengthen on Tuesday with gusts between 30-40 mph expected. Locally higher gusts up to 45 mph will be possible across southcentral SD..

- Very cool and dreary conditions continue through Wednesday with greater rain coverage expected through the day. Rain finally moves east by Thursday.

- Some hard freeze potential builds for the end of the work week ahead of a clipper system that could bring rain (and maybe a wet snowflake) to the area into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 848 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Taking a look across the area, areas of lower stratus continue to fill in this evening as any lingering precipitation dissipates east of I-29. While a temporary lull in activity could persist for the next few hours mainly due to drier air, were still expecting additional rain chances to return overnight. Increasing low-level saturation along with lowering LCLs will likely lead to patchy areas of drizzle/light showers overnight. Accumulations will be on the lighter side, but we'll could see the drizzle fest continue well into the day on Tuesday especially across areas west of I-29.

With northwesterly surface flow and lingering cold air advection (CAA) in place aloft, expect temperatures to follow a non-diurnal trend with falling temperatures during the day. This combined with breezy to strong wind gusts between 30-40 mph could lead to much chillier conditions as highs peak in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with additional light to moderate showers lifting through the area on Tuesday. Looking aloft, with multiple mid-level systems mergers expected near the Tri-state line (SD/MN/IA); an additional 0.25" to 0.75" of an inch of rain is expected with the highest accumulations expected along and east of I- 29. While flooding concerns continue to be low, localized ponding is expected in any low lying spots and flood-prone areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: A surface front continues to push eastward through the Tri-State area early this afternoon. Clearing ahead of this front all the way northwards towards Highway 14 has allowed MLCAPE values to push as high as 500-800 J/KG which will allow for low- topped convection to form. While the risks for any significant hail/wind are low, some concerns continue for the potential of stretching updraft and potential funnel/tornado development in a narrow corridor of the CWA. With 0-3km MLCAPE near 300-500 J/KG, 0-1 km helicity does rise to nearly 150-200 M2/S2 depending on the degree of SE surface winds near the boundary. Localized VGP values surge past 0.5 M/S2, maximized south of I-90 towards the MO River and into the Highway 20 corridor of NW Iowa through 5pm.

TONIGHT: The passage of the front, and associated mid-lvl dry slot, will bring an end to the precipitation in most locations. However the aforementioned frontal boundary will keep persistent shower and isolated thunderstorms in the far southeastern CWA into the early overnight hours. As low-lvl moisture returns from the NW overnight, saturation depth may increase enough for occasional spits to drizzle by daybreak. NW winds will also increase through the region behind this boundary with the latest CAMS indicating potential for 40 mph gust at times and localized higher gusts in the higher MO River valley areas.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Weak low-lvl lift persists through Tuesday, but I'm not anticipating widespread rain at this point. Soundings suggest widespread low-stratus and even the potential for occasional drizzle into the afternoon. By Tuesday evening and night, deeper moisture advects back north as a weak wave pivots into the Mid-Mo River valley bringing persistent and more widespread rain risks into the Tri-state area overnight.

Wednesday continues to look like a very cool and wet day as the merger of several upper waves into a larger upper trough over the Plains, aids in developing a large TROWAL across Minnesota and into the eastern Dakotas. Depending on the wobble of the upper trough, mostly light precipitation may be near continuous through the day on Wednesday as breezy to gusty northwest winds continue. Expect minimal temperature rises both days, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s likely.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: A brief period of dry conditions returns for the end of the week as mid-lvl ridging moves into the Plains. Cooler Canadian high pressure sinks southward into Friday, allowing the potential for a widespread frost to a hard freeze Friday and Saturday mornings.

The next risk for precipitation won't arrive until Saturday into Sunday as a fast moving clipper dives southeast. At this point precipitation may stay in the form of liquid, but with H850 temperatures falling below zero there might be a non-zero risk for a few snowflakes if precipitation arrives overnight.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1108 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Mainly MVFR ceiling and lower continue this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, lower stratus continues to fill in this evening with pockets of drizzle. Expect intermittent drizzle to continue through at least daybreak on Tuesday before more rain returns along and east of I-29. MVFR to LIFR cigs will hang around for most of the day. With this in mind, kept prevailing drizzle and rain around for most of the day at each TAF site with breezy northwesterly winds in place.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.