textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry precipitation expected north of I-90 Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A bigger threat for sleet and freezing rain than snow. Winter weather advisory for highway 14 and into parts of southwest MN.

- A much needed rainfall will move into the area Wednesday and continue into Thursday morning. Much of the area will see a half an inch to an inch of rainfall/total liquid precipitation.

- Isolated thunderstorm potential late Thursday night early Friday morning in mainly northwest IA. Severe weather unlikely but some small hail would be possible.

- Friday is a tricky day with the potential for freezing rain and sleet. The better chances for snow should be mostly northwest of the area. Enough of an icing threat that some minor to moderate impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Cool high pressure moves by to the north tonight which will allow easterly flow at the surface to develop. With winds remaining at about 5 to 15 mph through the night, temperatures should not drop off significantly, falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s in most locations.

Moisture aloft increases through the day on Wednesday while low level moisture lags a bit. By afternoon the low level moisture starts to creep into areas west of I-29. Upper level support moves into the area by late Wednesday afternoon with some weak destabilization which should lead to scattered showers. Given expected surface temperatures, all rain is anticipated although some snow would be possible north of I-90 and maybe a bit of a mix closer to highway 14 towards sunset. At least through sunset amounts north of I-90 will likely be limited by this lower level dry air as the lift and precipitation slowly overcome it.

The strongest lift will be roughly 10 pm Wednesday night through 6 am Thursday morning. Weak instability south of I-90 aids the strong lift as the upper level wave moves from central NE into southwest MN during this time. The biggest challenge during this time will be surface temperatures which will dictate the rain vs. freezing rain, but also the warmest T aloft which will dictate freezing rain vs. sleet. Currently much of southeast MN and nearby locations will see the best chance for the warm layer aloft and surface temperatures creeping down to 30-32 degrees. The latest Nam and HRRR both indicating about 0.25" to 0.50" of freezing rain in these locations. Given the warm ground temperatures, much of the affects may end up on elevated surfaces, which would include power lines. While winds are not excessive, gusts of 15 to 20 mph look likely. Given some confidence that surface temperatures will remain just above 32 with the potential for latent heat release with moderate rainfall and the latest Nam and Consshort all indicating temperatures hovering between 32 to 34 for much of the area most susceptible for icing.

Precipitation chances will linger through Thursday afternoon, but anything that falls Thursday afternoon will be on the lighter side.

A break in activity is expected late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight hours before the effects of the next wave spread into the area. Late Thursday night, elevated instability (CAPE values 500-1000 J/kg) moves into in northwest IA, far southeast SD and northeast NE late Thursday night into Friday morning. While severe weather is not expected, if that amount of instability does come to fruition, some dime sized hail would be possible with the freezing level around 9000 ft.

After the morning elevated convective push, the next trend to keep an eye on will be dry slotting. The models are hinting that areas near and east of I-29 may end up with little in the way of saturation aloft through the afternoon and without much convective help, these locations may remain mainly dry during this time. Will keep the chance for precipitation in however as confidence on a total dry slot shut down of precipitation is not there. The main concern with this system will be the potential again for freezing rain and sleet. Confidence definitely not high enough for any headlines, especially given the Wednesday night/Thursday system, but something to keep an eye on trends. Will also watch the trends of some strong lift in central SD which would likely be mostly snow. This would affect especially the Chamberlain and Huron locations.

Cold and windy on Saturday with a lingering chance for light snow. Generally looking at highs in the 30s to lower 40s and wind chills in the teens.

Northwest flow aloft remains in place Sunday through Tuesday with near seasonal to below normal temperatures expected. The chances for precipitation remain minimal during this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Generally VFR through the period. Will start to see some spotty showers develop late Wednsday morning with the better chances in central SD from about 14z to 18z.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.