textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures will continue through the week ahead, as much as 15-30 degrees above normal region-wide on Monday. A few record highs may be tied or broken on Monday.

- Low afternoon humidity levels and breezy winds in the warmest areas south of I-90 Monday will result in elevated fire danger.

- Quiet weather will prevail through early Wednesday, with light rain/snow expected Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Southerly flow slowly increases ahead of the incoming wave on Monday, allowing for a very mild night. Most locations will see low temperatures close to normal highs, in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Mid and high clouds increase through the night into Monday as the wave moves into the area. Very dry lower levels should prevent precipitation from reaching the ground, but a few sprinkles near highway 14 will be possible. This is in response to a bit of mid level frontal forcing that moves through mid to late morning. With very mild temperatures low level temperatures and good mixing ahead of the incoming front very warm, possibly record high temperatures are expected Monday. Highs could approach 70 in northeast NE and nearby parts of northwest IA. Some falling afternoon temperatures are expected near I-90 and points north as the front settles into the area late morning through mid afternoon.

Cooler, but still well above normal temperatures move into the area behind the Monday wave, bringing temperatures back to only 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

The next wave of interest moves into the area on Wednesday afternoon and exits on Thursday. Still a good chance for rain and snow, mainly Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Wednesday afternoon the model soundings indicate a fairly stout sub cloud dry layer which should preclude precipitation during this time. Wednesday night into Thursday appears that the lowest few hundred feet will determine rain vs snow with very little threat for freezing rain and sleet. The latest GEFS showing about a 70-80% chance for a hundredth in and around southwest MN with a 40-50% chance for a tenth of an inch in the same location. Without much wind, any impacts from the snow should remain on the minor side. If everything can come together during this time maybe we could see a small band of a few inches, but confidence in this is low for now.

Confidence Friday into the weekend is pretty low on precipitation chances with marginal agreement on a series of weak waves. hat will continue to remain the main message will be well above normal temperatures with lows in the teens and 20s and highs in the 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 519 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Light and variable winds will persist through the evening hours before turning southerly after midnight. Some low level wind shear (LLWS) is expected tomorrow morning around highway-20, including at KSUX. Winds will strengthen out of the west/northwest for tomorrow afternoon as gusts increase up to 15-30 knots. The strongest gusts will occur west of the James River. The breezy winds will finish out the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.