textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday, and potential for record warm low temperatures Tuesday morning.

- Gusty winds early this week may bring elevated fire danger to the region. Tuesday appears to be the windiest day with gusts around 45 mph possible.

- A late week pattern shift will bring slightly colder temperatures and more wind to the region. Risks for light snow arrive Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Northwest flow aloft will bring mild weather into the area through Tuesday with some potential record temperatures, especially very mild overnight lows Tuesday morning. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s with the warmest temperatures south of I- 90 and west of I-29. A few weak waves will move through the areas tonight into Tuesday as well, but a lack of moisture and any instability should see mainly mid level clouds as a response to these waves.

A trough of low pressure aloft deepens over the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and brings more northerly flow aloft into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday night. This will drive colder air into the region, with the continued potential for some very strong north winds late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The strongest winds should be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, with stronger westerly mixing winds Tuesday afternoon transitioning to strong cold advection winds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wind gusts will likely be as high as 45 mph during this time. As the strong cold air advection settles in some shallow mixed layer instability could produce rain or snow showers Tuesday evening/night but for now the impacts look short lived and minor if any precipitation can develop. The better chances look to be south of I-90. Winds should diminish quickly Wednesday afternoon as surface high pressure builds south.

Thursday will try to warm briefly as a ridge of high pressure aloft moves rapidly southeast and another wave tracks southeast in the strong northwest flow. This wave will mainly north of the area, but confidence on the track is low as the models are fairly variable on how this wave wraps up and the potential for a secondary wave behind it on Friday. This secondary wave will be the wave that has a better potential for producing some snowfall. Not to mention this wave or pair of waves will bring more strong winds to the area, especially Friday with some potentially strong cold advection. The GEFS, EC Ensemble and EC AIFS 90th percentiles all running about 1-2", mainly north of I-90, so not expecting any heavy snowfall.

Cold air is likely to hang around into the weekend, but once again some divergence in the model runs so confidence not real high on the extent in time that the cold air will linger.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 519 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the period with scattered high clouds overnight. Southwesterly to westerly winds will continue to decrease becoming light and variable around midnight. By late morning winds become more westerly and increase to 8-14 kts.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.