textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will dominate the week ahead. The next warmer days will be Monday and Thursday.

- A few chances of light rain and/or snow with the better chances on Tuesday night, but no significant systems are expected. Tuesday night could see an inch or two with the better chances near and north of I-90.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather will be possible Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A strong jet to the north will allow cooler air to sag southward overnight into Monday morning. This will bring a fairly tight gradient of temperatures at the surface on Monday. Highs will likely range from the lower 70s near KSUX to 50 to 55 along highway 14.

A quick moving system should bring some snow to the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The better chances will remain near and especially north of I-90 where a better thermal profile exists. There will be a strong mid level front that moves through Tuesday afternoon close to I-90 and if any instability can work into this band some earlier precipitation potential will be possible during the day, which would likely be a mix of rain and snow. One thing to watch will be with a fairly high dgz, above 700 mb, any loss of saturation, or over-forecasting of moisture below 700 mb may lead to mainly virga or very light snowfall. For now the impacts looks limited, but if everything comes together maybe a couple of inches north of I-90.

Cooler air settles in behind this wave and with some snow on the ground highs will likely be limited to the upper 30s to mid 40s in most locations.

Fire weather concerns return on Thursday as a wave moves by to the north and aids in strengthening mixing to the south. Went ahead and increased winds during this time and decreased dew points a touch. This will lead to most areas seeing elevated to near critical fire weather Thursday afternoon.

Fast west to northwest flow aloft remains in place Friday into the weekend which should allow for continued chances for precipitation. Thursday night into Friday will see some chances as a fairly strong wave moves by to the north. Sunday also shows some potential with a stronger wave moving through just north of the area and a strong mid level warm front expected to develop. Will need to keep an eye on this system. While temperatures will remain above normal during this time, they will remain a bit cooler with highs mostly in the 40s to lower 50s and if the system on Sunday pans out highs in the 30s would be more likely.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty southwest winds will diminish through this evening. A frontal system will cross through the area from north to south late tonight into the early morning hours, turning winds to the northwest and then northeast heading into the day tomorrow. There also looks to be a few hours of LLWS concerns tonight for mainly KSUX.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.