textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northwest winds will continue today with gusts of 40 to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory will be in effect for the entire area until 9 pm this evening.

- Isolated to scattered showers this afternoon could result in slightly higher wind gusts (to 60 mph) during the afternoon.

- Isolated showers on Thursday could produce wind gusts to 40 mph.

- Strong to severe storms could return on Saturday along with locally heavy rain. Specific details are uncertain, but as of now, the highest probabilities for severe storms remains south and west of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A strong jet max continues to wrap around the south side of an upper level low, bringing strong winds to the area. Peak mixing suggests that wind gusts could approach 50 mph. Model soundings also indicate some weaker surface based instability this afternoon, which will likely generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The main concerns from any of this activity will be the potential to mix down even stronger winds, possibly 60 to 65 mph. These stronger winds will remain much more isolated.

Thursday will see deep, but weakening northwest flow across the area. We will likely see a threat for isolated showers with locally gusty winds to 40 mph as surface based peak mixing CAPE climbs to about 200 J/kg.

Thursday night into Friday a weak wave will approach and bring some elevated moisture return and very weak instability. For now any impacts from this will be very minor.

The next system of interest will come Saturday, but with some differences from model to model. The 6z EC Ensemble is bringing a 20- 30 percent chance for 2+" of rain to around the Missouri River into parts of northwest IA while the 12z GFS ensemble and 12z Canadian ensemble leave these better chances farther south and closer to I- 80. Classically the heavier rain many times falls between roughly the surface to 850 mb boundary and for now that remains south of the area, but will need to be monitored in case it drifts north. Regardless, flooding potential is fairly low as rainfall has been spotty at best lately.

Below normal temperatures and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday through Wednesday next week. A few shortwaves are expected to move through, with slightly better chances Monday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

MVFR ceilings should gradually lift through mid afternoon. Northwest winds will gust to 45 to 55 mph at times, diminishing this evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain likely through the afternoon into the evening and could produce localized wind gusts to 60 mph as well as very brief heavy rain.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040-050- 052>071. MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098. IA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014.