textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain below normal through Saturday. Confidence is beginning to increase in temperatures warming back to near to above normal Sunday into early next week.

- A few flurries will be possible later tonight into Wednesday morning. Accumulations are not expected.

- Patchy light snow is possible late Wednesday night into Thursday, with the better chances west of the James Valley. Amounts should be around an inch or less.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

An upper level jet will dive south tonight into MN and bring a very small area of weak lift and saturation in the dendritic layer from around De Smet through Sioux Falls toward Storm Lake later tonight into Wednesday morning. Will be fighting some dry air so if any snow can make it to the ground amounts will be minimal. This will also help reinforce the cold air with a 1030 mb high pressure expected to build south. High temperatures remain 5-10 degrees below normal.

Late Wednesday night into Thursday will be the next chance for snow, albeit not expecting much in the way of amounts and winds will not play much of a role. Saturation and lift slide down the Missouri River towards the James River during this time. Will watch for trends in the low level humidity as many times in scenarios with a stronger incoming arctic high the low level humidity ends up being a bit drier and amounts are less and farther south than anticipated.

Northerly flow aloft keep cold air buried in the region with the last of the coldest air expected to settle south Friday night into Saturday. This will bring wind chill values to -10 to -20 for most of the area during this time. While snow chances will be minimal, a surge in cold air advection and some minor amounts of moisture could allow for some patchy light snow.

By Saturday into Sunday a wave passes near and north of the area and brings the next chance for some snowfall. Right now model output is pretty low on precipitation and chances for more than a tenth of an inch of liquid so impacts are expected to be minor. Will be a system to keep an eye out on though, but even coming in stronger would likely only result in a couple of inches of snow. Once this wave passes slightly milder air will follow which will allow temperatures to climb back to normal and possibly a bit above normal Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 508 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. Besides a few mid to upper level clouds, expect quiet conditions with no significant aviation concerns. Otherwise, lighter surface winds will persist into the end of the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.