textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A PATTERN CHANGE AHEAD: Today will be the last day of milder conditions before temperatures trend colder into the weekend, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and overnight lows in the 20s.

- MOSTLY DRY INTO THE WEEKEND: Besides an occasional sprinkle through Friday, most areas should remain dry well into the weekend.

- A MILD RETURN: Temperatures will trend back to the 50s by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

An elongated lobe of vorticity continues to push through the Northern Plains aloft, keeping the chance (~10%) for sprinkles going for the rest of the afternoon. No break in the chance for sprinkles through the evening and into the overnight hours as the low levels remain saturated, especially as more widespread low level stratus pushes into the area. Perhaps a few flurries are possible with the sprinkles as temperatures cool to near to just below freezing at the surface tonight.

Thursday will be the first noticeably cooler day with the post frontal airmass in place. Should see highs warm to the low 40s to low to mid 30s, if the low level stratus breaks up enough to allow for sufficient diurnal heating. If cloud cover prevails, highs could remain in the 30s. Surface ridging will be sliding into the area as well, keeping winds light, though just barely strong enough to result in wind chills down in the 30s to potentially upper 20s in a few locations during the daylight hours. Some sprinkles also remain possible beneath the stratus as well. With the ridge parked over the area, low temperatures look to fall to the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this season, with lows falling to the low to mid 20s. Some locations could see lows fall into the upper teens. With very light to nearly calm winds in place, little if any wind chill will be felt. Could see lows fall further but there remains uncertainty regarding cloud cover.

Friday will be another cooler day with near to below seasonable highs in the 30s and 40s. Breezy winds look to return to locations along and west of the James River as the previously mentioned surface ridge begins to slide eastwards, tightening low level pressure gradients. Low temperatures will remain in the 20s Friday night, but should be a little bit warmer than Thursday night's lows as winds turn to out of the southeast and remain elevated through the night.

Upper level ridging remains on track to push eastwards into the Plains for the weekend. This will begin a small warming trend with highs warming back into the 40s across the area. Temperatures will continue to warm through early next week with highs in the 40s and 50s for Monday and Tuesday. No rain is expected for any of these days.

Medium range guidance continues to show some variance regarding the upper level pattern for the middle of next week. There is some consensus that broad troughing from the western CONUS will push eastwards for this period of time. The ensembles not only support this troughing, but they show increased probabilities for light rain, up to a 20-50% chance for rainfall totals to exceed a hundredth of an inch. Their probabilities lower for rainfall amounts exceeding a tenth of an inch. Could still see these chances for rain persist into the end of next week, but details remain uncertain.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 524 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected to prevail this period. A thin layer of moisture between 950-850 mb will keep scattered to broken stratus around through the overnight. There may be brief periods where stratus ceilings dip into MVFR but confidence on timing and location were too low to include in any of the TAFs. Along with the possible lower ceilings is a very low probability (<10%) for some very light sprinkles to snow flurries between 13.04Z and 13.12Z. Sprinkles most likely along and south of a line from KHON, KFSD, and KSUX. Stratus begins to lift after daybreak but remains scattered to broken through the end of the period.

Northerly winds will continue to decrease through the next few hours. Overnight they will be light between 5-10 kts. Winds will remain northerly and light through the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.