textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire Weather remains the primary concern over the next several days with very dry fuels, warm and breezy conditions, and little to no precipitation expected.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most likely Thursday and Saturday onward, although each day will pose some threat.

- No impactful weather systems are expected through next weekend, but temperatures remain quite variable. Probabilities for more than 0.10" of rain remain less than 20% through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

The forecast remains on track late this evening. After a quiet overnight timeframe with lows dropping to the upper 30s to low 40s, high temperatures will warm all the way to 70s to low 80s by tomorrow afternoon. Dew points will only moisten to the upper 30s to low 40s, resulting in low humidity values down to 25-35%. The low humidity will result in elevated fire danger across the area along with dry fuels that are in place. Winds look to remain light though as low level pressure gradients remain loose. However, if deeper mixing can be achieved, then stronger winds may be possible. As of now, winds would have to achieve up to or exceed the 90th percentile of guidance. Thus, have not strayed from the NBM at this time as this probability is 10% or less. And fire danger will come to an end by the evening as nocturnal stabilization occurs.

A cold front remains on track to pass through the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This front will deliver a shot of cold air advection (CAA) and stronger winds with it. These winds will be strongest in the morning timeframe before slowly weakening through the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be cooler, only warming to about 50F to the low to mid 60s for highs on Thursday. Humidity will also be higher but with remaining dry fuels in place, elevated fire danger is once again expected for Thursday.

The rest of the week and into early next week looks dry as upper level ridging remains in place aloft, continuing above average high temperatures. This will also continue chances for elevated fire danger as well. Medium range guidance is beginning to pick up on a trough pushing into the plains from the western CONUS around Tuesday next week. The ensembles generally agree with these trends so something to keep an eye on as this could be the next chance for precipitation to return to the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Mild and dry air surges north in the low levels tonight and will set up a very mild day Wednesday. This will lead to mild overnight lows tonight, generally mid 30s to lower 40s with highs on Wednesday in the 70s with a few 80s south of I-90.

A system swings by to the north Wednesday night and should only bring some cloud cover to the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Some very weak elevated instability near highway 14 may allow for a few showers late Wednesday night, but amounts would be very light. Also some very weak elevated instability near northeast NE into parts of northwest IA that could lead to a few showers. Currently instability is too weak, but if enough can sneak in around KSUX we could see some gusty winds with any showers that could develop with a fairly unidirectional wind and deep/dry sub cloud layer. Otherwise, the main effects from this wave will be a cold front that will dive south Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this front a very mild air mass will be in place with Thursday morning lows in the 40s to lower 50s. The initial front will sag south on Thursday morning and the secondary stronger front in the afternoon. Wind gusts likely 30 to 40 mph.

Friday should be mostly sunny with stable northwest flow in place. Temperatures cool quite a bit behind the exiting system, so looking at highs in the 40s and 50s.

Mainly westerly flow stays in place this weekend into early next week, setting the stage for warm temperatures and very little chance for precipitation. The models are hinting at a slightly stronger wave Tuesday night into Wednesday next week, but far enough out not too concerned or confident, but something to keep an eye on. Otherwise looking at highs in the 60s on Saturday and 70s Sunday into Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. High level clouds persist across the area and will persist through the rest of the overnight hours. Winds will go light and variable towards the end of the night. The low level jet (LLJ) will strengthen aloft and result in some low level wind shear (LLWS) generally south of I-90. Any LLWS will diminish by sunrise. Winds will turn westerly by tomorrow afternoon before backing to southeasterly to finish out the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Wednesday will see near critical to potentially critical fire weather concerns. Northwest flow will increase a bit on Wednesday, but not excessively so. The 90th percentile wind gusts still remain mainly below 20 knots everywhere. The combination of temperatures and dew points will yield an afternoon minimum RH of 20 to 30 percent. Looking at the 90th percentile for temperatures and 10th percentile for dew points would yield RH in the teens for most locations. For now not expecting any headlines given lack of confidence that winds will meet or exceed 25 mph, but could prove to be fairly close given very dry fuels as well as warm and dry conditions.

Thursday will see a double front structure move through, with the initial milder cold front moving through in the morning then the stronger cold front dropping south in the afternoon. Plenty of wind to support critical to near critical conditions, just a matter of how quickly temperatures fall in the afternoon which will cause the RH to increase.

Friday should see northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph and afternoon RH fall to 25 to 35 percent.

Winds turn southerly on Saturday and Sunday and gusts of 20 to 30 mph along with afternoon RH of 20 to 30 percent should bring critical to near critical fire weather conditions.

Precipitation chances the next several days remain very low.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.