textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Nuisance flurries remain possible today, but no large scale impacts are anticipated.

- Several precipitation risks continue into the upcoming week, focused mostly late Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will dictate precipitation type, which may be more rain than snow. - Temperatures warm back above normal for the rest of the week before a front brings a risk for rain by Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 150 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Colder to start this morning with temperatures in the single digits either side of zero and teens above. Some clearing of the stratus along the US Hwy 14 and I-90 corridors and fresh snow pack is allowing some locations to fall below zero this morning. Stratus and flurries may linger through the day across the area, but confidence in flurries is too low to mention at this time with dry sub cloud layer. One change in the forecast for today was to lower highs closer to the NBM 25th percentile for areas with new snowpack, as we may struggle to warm with the new snow and clouds today. This drops highs by a couple of degrees but still in the mid 20s for southwestern MN. Temperatures warm as you head further south, in the upper 30s along the MO River Valley. Warmer temperatures and breezy wind gusts around 25-30 mph may lead to some elevated fire danger in south central SD, although minimum humidity around 40% will limit extent.

Warmer conditions early in the work week with the return of precipitation chances as the first wave moves through the Plains. Amounts are expected to remain light, with ensemble probabilities of over a tenth of an inch of QPF around 45% or less into Tuesday. Temperatures play a critical role in what p-type we'll see, although guidance currently is leaning toward mostly rain.

Pattern remains active with another short wave mid week and a more defined mid level trough ejecting out of the Rockies late in the work week. Guidance is still quite varied in the evolution of these features.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

THIS Afternoon: Light snow continues to linger in far eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota this afternoon as mid-lvl vorticity and very weak mid-lvl frontogenesis continues. As the mid-lvl energy moves east, this snow will dissipate to flurries by this evening. Elsewhere we continue to see a wide array of temperatures, warmer 30s near the Missouri River where less cloud cover has developed over the cooler northeast surface flow.

TONIGHT: High pressure moving into northern Minnesota will allow northeast surface winds to push colder air to the southwest overnight. If skies clear over areas that had fresh snow today, then low temperature may fall well into the single digits or even below zero, and have locally adjusted lows towards the colder side of guidance, though cloud cover will have the greatest impact on lows tonight so quite a bit of variability will be possible.

SUNDAY: High pressure continues to influence the region on Sunday with sounding showing both a dry boundary layer but also a fairly stout dry layer around 800 mb. Eventually later on in the afternoon a thin layer of vorticity will move through the Plains, mostly across Nebraska. Some mid-lvl warm advection response is noted in short term guidance suggesting the potential for gradual top-down saturation along the Buffalo ridge. Though given the current sounding projections anything that reaches the surface will be very light. Temperatures will be cooler throughout the Tri-State area as highs only reach the mid-upr 20s, with 30s likely West River.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: As we enter the new work week the mid-lvl pattern remains much the same. Flattened mid-lvl ridging with persistent troughing located near the Four Corners region. This trough will allow several smaller waves of vorticity to track east and northeast into the middle of the week, bringing scattered precipitation chances to the region. Latest NBM indicates 60 to 70% probabilities of precipitation. With surface high pressure moving east early Monday, we'll see a warm advection response in the low-lvl spread throughout the Plains on Monday. This results in highs climbing into the 40s in most areas, with an increase in both southerly surface flow and mid-lvl clouds. Wind gusts top the 25 to 30 mph mark in the afternoon Monday, pushing the fire danger risks towards the "high" GFDI categories. With recent snowfall, have adjusted percent green to lower potential along the Ridge areas. By Monday evening the first signs of light precipitation appear in the Tri-State area driven by warm advection and weak mid-lvl dPVA. Low-lvl temperatures mostly above 0C and surface temperatures in the mid-upr 30s support higher probabilities of rain than snow into Tuesday morning. Some drizzle may also mix in at times south of I-90 into Iowa/Nebraska. One aspect of the forecast to monitor more closely would be northward advection of stratus and very low-lvl moisture Monday afternoon out of the mid-Missouri River valley. The increasing low-lvl isentropic lift could result in drizzle or even freezing drizzle into NW Iowa and Southern Minnesota early Monday morning.

Stratus may linger into Tuesday as mid-lvl vorticity remains strung out along the I-90 corridor. Some lingering very light precipitation may continue into mid-morning, but with surface temperatures above freezing any road impact should be minimal. Highs eventually rise into the 40s in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: The upper troughing over Four Corners region ejects eastward in the middle portions of the work week, bringing a bit of uncertainty to the region. However, broad and sustained warm advection in the low-lvls through the middle of the week results in high temperatures rising through the 40s and most likely into the 50s by Wednesday and Thursday with persistent southerly surface flow. The vast majority of deterministic guidance keeps this compact upper low passing through the Southern Plains. However ensembles do show some support for PoPs to drift northward into areas along and south of I-90 Wednesday, but these ensembles also show support for just very light rain totals (<0.10"). Out next reasonable risk for precipitation arrives Late Thursday into Friday as a progressive upper trough crosses the Northern Rockies and moves into the Northern Plains. This trough will nudge a cold front eastward late Thursday into Friday. Temperatures surge ahead of this boundary on Thursday with some guidance hinting at widespread highs in the 60s and even 70s pushing northward. In fact the LREF probabilities for temperatures greater than 60 degrees are skewed well to the right of the mean, with nearly 70% probabilities of highs >60. The passage of this front will bring rain risks back to the region, though quality of low-lvl moisture remains in doubt given moisture transport vectors surging more east than north ahead of the trough arrival. At this time, don't expect any major cooldown behind this front into next weekend with highs remaining in the 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1038 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR stratus blankets the majority of the area late this evening. Ceilings drop to MVFR levels just upstream of the forecast area but decided to leave out of all TAFs as the stratus is not progressing southeastwards that much and is beginning to break up. Will keep an eye on trends through the night. Additional mid and high level clouds are expected for the day tomorrow while winds remain marginally breezy out of the southeast with gusts up to 15-25 knots. The southeast winds will remain elevated to finish out the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1201 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

As we close out the month of February, here's a brief look at just how dry the month was for a couple of our climate locations.

Sioux Falls with just 0.03" of precipitation ranked as the 3rd driest February on record with 1923 (T), 1894 (T), and 1937 (0.01") ahead of 2026 and 1931. The 0.5" of total monthly snow was behind 1931 (T), 1923 (T), 1894 (T), 1987 (0.3") in the ranking for the lowest snow total for the month. For the first 2 months of the year, the 0.20" of precipitation ranks as the 3rd driest start to the year on record behind 0.10" (1901) and 0.13" (1931).

Sioux City with just 0.01" of precipitation ranked as the driest February on record ahead of 1931 (0.04"). The trace of total monthly snow was tied for the lowest on record for February with 1946 and 1931. For the first 2 months of the year, the 0.29" of precipitation ranks as the 2nd driest start to the year on record behind 0.26" (2022).

The totals in Huron are yet to be determined once precipitation ends today.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.