textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to critical fire conditions remains the primary concern over the next several days with very dry fuels, warm and breezy conditions, and little to no precipitation. Heed all burn bans and restrictions.

- Aside from a low chance (< 20%) of sprinkles with a cold front today, dry conditions are expected through the first half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Surface boundary is currently draped across SD, from just east of Winner to just west of Brookings, then east across MN. Near and north of this boundary have seen a few returns on radar, with even some thunder reported near Aberdeen earlier this morning. In our area, have only seen one report of rain in our area at Marshall, MN. Just outside our area, Canby has reported rain. There are also a few returns in northern NE, but again, not seeing any indications this is reaching the ground. Will maintain a dry forecast based on these trends and forecast soundings.

Cooler but windy conditions today. Gusts still expected to be out of the north to northeast around 40 mph, with Chamberlain and Huron already gusting to 30 mph as of 3 AM CDT. May see some isolated higher gusts with the stronger push of CAA but any gusts above 45 mph look to be brief (an hour or maybe two) and fairly localized so not anticipating a need for any wind headlines. However, strong winds lead to near critical fire conditions - see Fire Weather Section below.

No significant changes from the evening forecast package. Cooler with lighter winds tomorrow. Warmer and breezy to windy for the weekend into early next week. Little to no precipitation expected through the weekend, leading to continued fire concerns (more details below in the Fire Weather Section below).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Mid-level moisture transport will keep skies partly cloudy today. Winds will be light and variable around 5-10 mph today. The exception will be over south central South Dakota where slightly stronger winds will be present, around 10 mph with gusts 15-20 mph. Temperatures will be well above average today with WAA ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. Highs today will climb to the mid to upper 70s with a few 80s possible along the southern Missouri River Valley. A few record highs are at risk of being tied or broken today, so stay tuned for updates! In additions to the warm temperatures, reports from around the CWA inform us about the exceedingly dry conditions. There have been several fires noted on satellite, some are prescribed burns but others have been accidental. The dry conditions and risk for fire danger are not expected to decrease in the coming days. More on that in the Fire Discussion section below.

Wednesday night will be mild with lows in the 40s for most of the region, and low 50s for northwest Iowa. Late Wednesday a mid-level wave approaches from the north-northwest. As it does so the SPG will tighten in response to strong CAA behind the cold front. This will result in rapidly strengthening winds. The timing of the front has come into better agreement in the short term guidance. The front should enter the Highway 14 corridor around or shortly after midnight, be near the I-90 corridor a few hours later, and the Highway 20 corridor near or around daybreak. As the front passes there is low probability (<20%) for light sprinkles to occur. Soundings indicate very dry air beneath the cloud layer. However, there is weak instability present that may be enough for a few sprinkles to make it to the surface. Any accumulation will be minimal.

As mentioned, winds will increase and become northeast at 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. A few gusts could reach as high as 40 mph. Winds will remain strong through the afternoon before slowly subsiding through the evening. Some of the short term guidance is just beginning to pick up on a secondary front and push of CAA that may result in gusty winds again overnight Thursday into Friday morning. The mid-range guidance has not yet picked up on this trend. After collaboration with neighbors the uncertainty is too high, and have left NBM winds as they are from midnight Friday onward.

Highs for Thursday will be cooler thanks to the northerly winds, climbing to the upper 40s to low 50s north of I-90, and mid 50s to 60s to the south. Lows will be in the 20s. Cooler temperatures continue for Friday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. An upper ridge builds in for the weekend and first part of next week. Occasionally breezy south to southwest winds at the surface keeps warm air flowing into the region, warming our highs into the 50s and 60s Saturday, the 70s Sunday, and 60s and 70s Monday. Dry conditions are expected during this time, with the next chance for meaningful precipitation arriving the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A mix of VFR down to IFR thanks to clouds associated with the passage of a cold front earlier today. Lowest ceilings located over east central South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. Clouds and ceilings are expected to improve through the afternoon and evening. VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder of the period.

Winds are currently out of the north sustained at 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts. Winds are expected to gradually decrease through the afternoon and evening, becoming light and variable. Around daybreak Friday another low pressure system will turn winds to the northwest and gusts increase to 20-25 kts. Breezy winds are expected to continue through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Widespread Very High fire danger expected today across the entire forecast area. Although we'll see cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 40s to mid 60s and RH values between 40-60%, strong north to northeasterly winds gusting to 40 mph (isolated higher) may be enough to overcome the more moist air - especially given significantly dry fuels.

Friday brings another day of cooler temperatures (highs in the 40s and lower 50s); however, much drier air returns to the area with minimum RH values around 20% to 30%, lowest through the MO River Valley. Northwesterly winds gust to around 25 mph in the afternoon hours. This combination bring elevated to near critical conditions to the area, with High to Very High GFDI (grassland fire danger index).

Concern grows for the weekend as southerly flow increases and dry weather continues. Highs on Saturday warm into the 50s and 60s, with even warmer temperatures on Sunday. Saturday is expected to have the strongest winds out of the south with gusts to 40 mph and the lowest RH of the two days, less than 25% across the entire area. This leads to critical fire conditions. Any fire that starts is likely to spread very quickly. Fire Weather Headlines are likely to be needed for Saturday. For Sunday, southerly winds will be lighter with gusts to 25 mph and RH values a touch higher to 20-30%. Elevated to near critical conditions expected.

Elevated to near critical concerns continue early next week as we remain warm, dry, and breezy. Low confidence in mid week precipitation potential, but cooler temperatures may bring some reprieve.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.