textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain below normal through Saturday. Temperatures moderate to near and above normal Sunday into early next week.

- Patchy light snow is likely late tonight into Thursday, with the better chances west of the James River Valley. Accumulations around an inch or less expected through Thursday night.

- Wind chill values about -15 to -25 Friday morning, coldest north of I-90.

- Additional light snow chances continue this weekend, with the better chances Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. For now, an inch or two looks possible with the better chance north of I-90.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

An upper level wave will move southwest of the area tonight and bring a weak band of snow to mainly south central SD. Almost all models indicate some measurable snowfall, but virtually none of them produce more than a tenth of an inch of liquid, so thinking 1.5" or less in general with the better chance in Gregory county. Areas closer to the James River will likely be the eastern edge of the snow and receive nothing much more than a dusting. The limiting factor will be some dry Arctic air to the northeast that settle south a touch as this wave passes to the southwest. By Thursday afternoon the better chances settle south of the Missouri River. Below normal temperatures in the teens to mid 20s.

Lingering flurries are possible Thursday night into Friday morning with a shallow and potentially saturated dgz. Forcing is very weak so not expecting much more than flurries at this point. Other than these flurries, Friday should be dry and cold with highs in the single digits above zero and lows Friday night in the single digits below zero.

Saturday afternoon and Saturday night continues to look like the next better chance for a little snow. A wave should pass by to the north and swing a band of low to mid level warm advection through the area. Given the speed of the lift moving through amounts will likely remain on the lower side with maybe an inch or two north of I- 90.

This wave also helps usher in some milder temperatures for Sunday and Monday, but confidence begins to waver a bit Monday night into Tuesday as the models are marginally agreeable that a somewhat stronger northwest flow wave will move into the area. Still a long time until we get to this system, but this may be our next better chance for snowfall after this weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions begin the TAF period. High level cirrus is overspreading the area early this evening. There is also a band of mid level clouds beneath the cirrus sitting at VFR levels. This will lead to light snow developing tonight along and west of the James River. The snow will come close to KHON and KSUX but dry air in the mid levels precludes confidence from being high enough to include light snow in a prevailing group. Have instead kept snow in PROB30 groups for these two TAF sites. MVFR ceilings will accompany the snow. Snow chances will be coming to an end during the morning hours tomorrow, leaving mainly VFR conditions to finish out the period. Winds will remain light and variable for the entire period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.