textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering pockets of drizzle to light showers will continue through the early evening before coverage gradually decreases for most areas. Mainly light accumulations are expected.

- Spotty showers could linger across southcentral SD and portion of the Missouri River Valley through Monday morning. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (50%-80%) will return by Tuesday with the potential for a few stronger storms. However, some uncertainty remains.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through midweek before more seasonable temperatures return from late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A dreary day continues! Taking a look across the area, we're continuing to watch areas high-based showers and drizzle progress through portions of the area this afternoon. While we're still on track for this intermittent activity to continue through early evening, we're starting to see an influx of drier air via water vapor satellite imagery lift into the area which could gradually erode at this activity over the next few hours. If this continues to hold true, things could taper down rather quickly with most activity becoming focused across southcentral SD into the evening. From here, we'll probably continue to have spotty showers across portions of southcentral SD and the Missouri River Valley through Monday morning as the surface low stalls out across northcentral NE and gradually weakens. Otherwise, another cool night will be on tap as lows decrease into the low to mid 50s.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: Looking into the early week, could still have a few spotty showers to start the day on Monday mainly across southcentral SD. While accumulations will be light, could see coverage expand in the early afternoon as a weak wave moves through the area and a couple hundred Jules of instability develop above the mixed layer. Nonetheless, should see this spotty activity gradually diminish after sunset as we lose diurnal heating. By Tuesday, additional shower and thunderstorm chances (50%-80%) are expected as a cold front progresses through the area. However, the severe weather risk looks more uncertain than yesterday. Still a wide range of solutions as far as how things could evolute during the day. With this in mind, this is probably the reason why our friends at SPC just blanketed most of our area in a Day 3 Marginal (Level 1 of 5). Nonetheless, another high shear/low CAPE environment will make for at least a marginal risk for large hail and damaging winds along and ahead of the surface front. Won't know many additional details up until guidance latches on a solution though. Lastly, temperatures will continue to hover near to just below normal with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s on both Monday and Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the midweek, quieter conditions should return for Wednesday and Thursday as a surface high tracks through our area. From here, the wave train returns by Friday as quasi-zonal flow helps usher in multiple shortwaves increasing the chances from showers and potentially thunderstorms almost daily (every 24-36 hours) into the following week. While the chances for severe weather are still uncertain at this time, this is another period that will need to be monitored closely moving forward. Lastly, we'll start to see temperatures build towards more seasonal conditions with highs increasing from the low to mid 70s on Wednesday to the low to mid 80s by Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Mainly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys will persist this TAF period. Taking a look across the area, scattered light to moderate showers continue this afternoon. The current expectation is for this intermittent activity to continue into the early evening before coverage decreases. With this in mind, carried -SHRA in for most TAF sites. Added a TEMPO into KFSD since there was some MVFR rainfall that moved through KMHE about an hour ago. Otherwise, winds have been on the lighter side today and should continue into the evening before becoming light and variable overnight.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.