textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record to record temperatures persist through the middle of next week. Average highs will be +25 to +35 degrees above average.

- Fire weather concerns remain on the table for Sunday as temperatures warm, humidity falls, and wind strengthen. Have expanded the Fire Weather Watch to now include most locations west of the James River excluding Beadle County. The Watch remains in effect from 12 pm to 6 pm Sunday.

- Outside of a few light showers/sprinkles south of I-90 today, dry weather is expected until at least late Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Rain and some snow chances (30-60%) return Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The bulk of the precipitation will stay north and east of the area. A second round of light snow is possible (30%) for Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A few light showers/sprinkles persist across parts of the area south of I-90 early this afternoon as weak lift in a somewhat saturated dendritic growth zone (DGZ) persists. With dry air in the low levels, rain may not fully reach the ground, resulting in virga. When rain has reached the surface, reported rainfall amounts have been very light, at around a hundredth of an inch. These light showers and sprinkles will persist through the rest of the afternoon hours and into part of the evening timeframe before this weak lift pushes east of the area. Thus, quiet conditions are expected for the overnight hours. Low temperatures will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s.

Sunday will be a very warm day with high temperatures warming to the upper 50s to upper 60s across the area as warm air advection (WAA) strengthens a bit aloft. This will push 850 mb temperatures up to +5C to +11C, placing these temperatures in the 95th percentile of climatology. Thus, near record to possibly record high temperatures are on the table for tomorrow. The very warm temperatures will also coincide with low humidity and some breezy winds mainly west of the James River. Thus, fire danger is possible in this area. More details about this fire danger can be found in the fire weather discussion below. Given the sunset this time of year, any fire danger will come to an end around sunset. Low temperatures will be mild, only falling to the 30s to about 40F.

Next week will begin dry on Monday with a continuation of above normal temperatures thanks to upper level ridging residing over the central CONUS. Highs will again be warm in the 50s and 60s. Things begin to change on Tuesday as heights begin to fall aloft ahead of an incoming upper level wave. WAA will strengthen ahead of the incoming wave, pushing 850 mb temperatures up to +5C to +10C aloft. There will also be a warm front associated with the WAA as well which can alter temperatures. Currently favoring a high temperature range from the upper 50s to low 70s which is supported by the NBM. The NBM shows a 70-100% chance for high temperatures to exceed 60F along and south of I-90. With breezy winds in place, there could be a return of elevated fire danger. However, both the fire danger threat and high temperatures could be mitigated if low level stratus develops. Currently, the LREF shows a 40-70% chance for cloud cover to exceed 50% along and north of I-90. Probabilities drop to about 20% along the Missouri River valley.

While the daylight hours will be dry, chances for precipitation will increase as the main quasi-geostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent arrives. Since temperatures will be quite warm, the main precipitation type is expected to be rain at this time. A cold front looks to push through the area during the overnight hours, cooling temperatures and increasing winds out of the northwest. At this time, the deterministic guidance is in decent agreement in keeping the bulk of the precipitation north and east of our area. The ensembles continue to show the highest probabilities (60-100% chance) for exceeding a tenth of an inch in this same area as well. The exception is the Euro AI ensemble as it shows a 60-80% chance exceeding the same amount of liquid QPF along and north of I-90. With temperatures further cooling into Wednesday morning, some light snow could mix in with any light rain showers. Wednesday will be cooler, but still above average with highs in the 40s and 50s with a continuation of breezy winds.

Another round of precipitation is possible on Thursday. Though this round of precipitation is a bit more uncertain as medium range guidance varies on the evolution of an upper level wave passing through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The majority of the guidance has a more progressive wave passing through which will would only bring minor precipitation to the area. The exception is the operational Euro model as it amplifies the wave and closes off the low. The ensembles on the other hand keep the wave progressive and show a 10-30% chance for liquid QPF amounts to exceed a tenth of an inch. The highest probabilities are driven by the operational Euro ensemble. Will continue to monitor how this system evolves over the coming days as changes in the upper level system can have meaningful changes in the forecast.

The end of the week looks to be more on the quiet side of things as broad troughing resides over the Northern Plains. This will keep temperatures closer to seasonable in the 20s and 30s. The ensembles support this as they show at most a 30% chance for for high temperatures exceeding 40F. Mainly dry conditions will accompany the return to near seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. A few light showers/sprinkles remain across part of the area late this morning. Should see these light rain showers and sprinkles drift eastwards through the rest of the day. Little if any rainfall is expected though it could wet the ground in a few spots. Light winds and clear skies are expected for this evening and will persist through the morning hours tomorrow to finish out the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

No fire danger is expected for this afternoon due to winds remaining light and variable across the area. Things will change for tomorrow though as very warm temperatures lead to low humidity levels across the area. High temperatures will warm to the upper 50s to 60s with the warmest temperatures occurring across central and south central South Dakota. This will result in low humidity values down to 17-25% along and south of a line from Huron, South Dakota to Sioux Falls, South Dakota to Cherokee, Iowa. Winds have trended up as well with gusts up 25-30 mph along and west of the James River Valley. Have expanded the Fire Weather Watch to now include most locations west of the James where confidence is highest in near critical to critical fire danger conditions being met. Winds are not as strong across Beadle so felt confident enough to leave them out of the Watch. The Watch remains in effect from noon to 6 pm on Sunday.

Elevated fire danger remain possible across locations east of the James given low RH values but weaker winds.

CLIMATE

Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

The forecast over the next 4 to 5 days will feature near record to record highs and near record warm low temperatures:

Record high temperatures:

February 14: KFSD: 66/1954 KSUX: 62/1934 KHON: 60/1999 KMHE: 65/1954 February 15: KFSD: 63/1921 KSUX: 67/1921 KHON: 66/1921 KMHE: 66/1921 February 16: KFSD: 64/1981 KSUX: 66/1981 KHON: 62/2017 KMHE: 63/2017

Record warm low temperatures:

February 14: KFSD: 35/2002 KSUX: 37/2002 KHON: 32/2002 February 16: KFSD: 35/1998 KSUX: 37/1998 KHON: 36/2011 February 17: KFSD: 33/1992 KSUX: 37/1930 KHON: 35/1981 February 18: KFSD: 38/1994 KSUX: 39/1971 KHON: 35/1994

Additionally climate perspectives indicate that the current forecast through Monday the 16th would push the mean monthly temperature departure at Sioux Falls (+15 degrees), Sioux City (+15 degrees), and Huron (+18 degrees) as the warmest February on record through that date.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for SDZ050-052-053-057>059- 063-064. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.