textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- After a record warm Saturday, temperatures running 40+ degrees colder on Sunday, with below freezing temperatures into Monday.

- Sprinkles to light rain will move from west to east Monday afternoon and evening. Rain amounts of a trace to hundredth favored.

- Fire danger will also rise to elevated levels west of I-29 Monday afternoon. More limited fire danger on Tuesday, with widespread elevated fire danger likely on Thursday afternoon with 40 mph winds.

- No impactful weather system are expected through next weekend, as temperatures experience a roller coaster ride. Probabilities for more than 0.10" of rain remain less than 20% through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

THIS Afternoon: Mid-lvl shortwave moving east early this afternoon will take the very light snow/rain eastward with it. However, extensive cloud cover remains in place and will have a profound impact on high temperatures. This cloud cover will gradually mix out from southwest to northeast, but according to some higher resolution guidance, may stall later this evening over SW Minnesota and NW Iowa.

TONIGHT: If we can clear out clouds, then a fairly sharp evening fall in temperatures may take place. Have favored lower guidance for temperatures. After midnight, southerly winds may return to areas along and west of the James River, signaling a stabilization or reversal of the diurnal drop in those areas.

MONDAY: A couple minor concerns on Monday, focused on afternoon/evening sprinkle and shower potential, along with increasing fire danger risks. Broad warm advection will begin to increase through the morning hours over the Plains as mid-lvl heights grow. Towards the low-lvls, lee side trough development will induce a breezy southerly wind in areas west of I-29 by mid-day. An increase in mid and lower clouds will develop on the aforementioned edge of warm advection, with this area moving east in the afternoon and evening. While model QPF shows hit or miss totals, a deeper look at the meteorology suggests that low-lvl lift may be sufficient enough when combined with weak mid-lvl dPVA to produce scattered showers. Soundings show considerable variability in top-down saturation, with greater chances for column saturation as echos cross I-29 and move into MN/IA towards the evening. Ensembles support a 40%+ chance for measurable rain, so have boosted PoPs to at least get a mention of light rain in the forecast.

As far as fire weather is concerned, soundings also show potential for 25 to 30+ mph wind gusts to form west of I-29 in the afternoon as mixing heights increase to 800 mb. Deterministic NBM seems to be on the low side of guidance, so have blended winds upwards a few MPH. Dew points will also lower at peak heating with RH falling near 30% in the afternoon. While not "critical" fire weather risks will increase into the GFDI "very high" category.

TUESDAY: A stationary boundary will develop from the Black Hills region into the Minnesota Arrowhead by Tuesday, keeping warmer southerly flow pushing northward. Breezy southerly winds will again climb near the 20-25 mph mark in the afternoon which will result in high temperatures in the 60s. Low-lvl winds at the top of the mixed layer are lighter than Monday, so high end gust potential will be lower. That said, with RH value again near 30 percent, fire danger will approach elevated levels especially south of I-90.

WEDNESDAY: That stationary boundary will sink southward by Wednesday bringing a higher likelihood of lighter and more variable wind directions in the day. However, the low-lvl airmass remain very warm, and dry ground favors temperatures rising into the upper 60s to 70s. Would not be surprised to see 80 degrees along the Missouri River once again.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Strong model agreement continues to point towards another gusty cold front moving through the region Thursday. A warm overnight will give way to falling daytime temperatures and potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. ECE/GEFS both indicate 40%_ probabilities for these higher wind gusts, with deterministic models pushing even higher gusts. The biggest forecast challenge will be the diurnal trends in both temperatures and relative humidity, which if align up correctly, could pose elevated fire danger throughout the entire region in the afternoon Thursday. While a low chance, a few passing sprinkles could be possible with this front, but given strongest mid-lvl dPVA well north of the area, any measurable precipitation should stay away from the CWA. Temperatures fall once again on Friday with high temperatures slightly below normal in most locations.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: The roller coaster temperature ride of the week will continue into next weekend. After a below normal Friday, we're already seeing signs that mid-lvl ridging will increase once again for next weekend. This shift will push broad warm advection through the Plains and lead to rising temperatures back towards the 60s and 70s. At this time, little to no precipitation chance is in the forecast through next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A bank of stratus continues to slowly erode this afternoon and evening, leaving VFR ceilings west of I-29 and MVFR to the east. These clouds will continue to clear through the evening, becoming mostly clear overnight. Breezy northerly winds decrease through the evening, becoming light and variable. Shortly after sunrise winds become southerly and begin to increase. Good mixing will result in gusts between 22-32 kts along and west of I-29. Highest gusts over south central South Dakota could reach as high as 35 kts. To the east of I-29 gusts will be 20 kts or less. Winds remain breezy through the end of the period.

In addition to breezy winds there is a low chance (<35%) of sprinkles to light rain beginning over central South Dakota around noon on Monday. Showers progress east through the day. The main uncertainty with showers is the dry subcloud layer present. It may be that precipitation will evaporate and work to produce localized higher gusts of 40 kts. Should the dry layer be overcome little accumulation is expected, a trace to a tenth of an inch. Showers push east of the region by the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.