textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- More seasonable temperatures will continue for the rest of the week with highs mainly in the 70s to 80s expected.

- Scattered showers will return to the area by late afternoon. While severe weather is not expected, an occasional stroke of lightning and strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph will be possible. - More concrete shower and thunderstorm chances (40%-70%) will return from Tuesday night into Wednesday. While severe weather is not expected, gusty winds to 50 mph will be possible with this developing activity.

UPDATE

Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

More seasonable conditions expected today as highs peak in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s across the area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for scattered showers to return to the areas by late afternoon as a weak trough and cold front swing through. While severe weather is not expected, pockets of moderate rainfall and strong wind gusts between 40-50 mph will be possible with some activity. Nonetheless, should see most of this activity exit our area around midnight giving way to quieter conditions. Lastly, should see the seasonable temperatures carry over into the overnight hours with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Northwest winds will diminish this evening with light winds expected through the night. This should allow for solid radiational cooling, with Monday morning temperatures bottoming out in the 40s in most spots.

A quick moving system will move through the area on Monday which will bring about gusty winds again, with a few gusts around 30 mph possible. Model soundings continue to indicate weak surface based instability, mainly late afternoon into the evening. This will bring about the threat for a few showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm. While severe weather is not expected, a nice inverted v sounding suggests some stronger winds gusts, likely 40 to 50 mph. The better chances for these gusty winds should be near and northeast of a Huron to Spencer IA line.

The models continue to bring through the next system of interest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm advection increases Tuesday night ahead of the wave with mid level lapse rates increasing to about 7.5 degrees C. This may lead to some elevated showers or a very isolated thunderstorm. Weak instability still appears to be a limiting factor for development. By Wednesday afternoon this system is blowing by and severe chances appear to be pretty low. However, similar to Monday some weak surface based instability with a dry sub cloud layer and a strong westerly unidirectional wind could lead to gusty winds with any afternoon or evening shower that could develop, possibly gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

Thursday and Friday look generally dry and pleasant with highs Thursday into the 70s and Friday mostly in the 80s.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns for the weekend but for now confidence is low to moderate on location and timing. Some hints that the better chances may reside across Nebraska. Otherwise temperatures remain seasonally mild.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, high-level cirrus continues to progress through the area this morning. Main aviation concern moving forward will be the developing showers this afternoon and evening. Decided to throw PROB30 groups into each TAF site to narrow down timing a bit. Might have an isolate MVFR cig or vsby depending on if moderate showers (RA) can develop. Otherwise, light and variable winds this morning will become increasing northwesterly winds through this evening with gusts up to 35 mph expected to end the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.