textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures expected through next weekend, from 10 to 20 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday.

- Precipitation chances remain very low (less than 10%) until late week.

- Continued dry, warm, and periodically breezy conditions could lead to elevated fire concerns by late week.

UPDATE

Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

No significant changes to the forecast, with minor increases to temperatures the next couple of days.

This morning, southerly winds have remained quite breezy (20 to 30 mph), especially along the Buffalo Ridge with some gusts around 40 mph. We're starting the day much more mild than yesterday with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Should still fall into the 40s over the next couple hours. Winds weaken through the morning and the afternoon as the SPG relaxes and the LLJ weakens. Highs in the 60s to near 70 today with plentiful sunshine. Weak surface low/inverted trough slides south of the area late this afternoon into tonight; no impacts expected other than a wind shift to the north. Lows tonight in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Mid/upper ridge builds Monday with southerly flow returning. Highs slightly cooler due to cooler temperatures aloft and the slow return of the southerly flow later in the day.

Looking ahead, ensemble guidance has trended down on the potential for any measurable precipitation through mid week, less than 20% over northwestern IA.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Strong southerly flow remains in place through Sunday as a jet max tracks by to the north along the Canadian border. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible along the Buffalo Ridge tonight, with the better chances for the higher winds this evening into the early overnight hours. This will bring milder lows tonight, generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with highs Sunday warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s, warmest west of the James. As this jet max shifts east of the area, a weak front will sag into the area and will help to diminish the stronger southerly winds. This will likely lead to more lows on Monday morning in the upper 30s, but not as cold as this morning. With a somewhat slow recovery to southerly flow temperatures will be a touch cooler and close to the seasonal normals in the lower 60s.

Monday night into Tuesday southerly flow increases and brings warmer readings back into the area. Highs will generally be 65 to 70 degrees.

A quick moving trough will swing through Tuesday night into Wednesday and bring a very small chance for very light rainfall amounts. For now will leave any mention out of the forecast, but the slightly better chances will be in northwest IA.

Very mild air will build into the area Wednesday into Saturday with highs very likely in the upper 60s to mid 70s each day. With strong southerly flow on a few of the days overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s, about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Will need to keep an eye on the fire weather potential late week into the weekend as fuels continue to cure and harvesting activities peak.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Southerly winds will gust to around 30 mph at times through sunset, with the higher winds near and east of I-29. Otherwise, VFR through the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.