textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will dominate the week ahead. The warmest days will be today and Thursday.

- An area of light rain to light snow moves across the region Tuesday night. Accumulations will largely be around an inch or less, but isolated amounts up to 2 inches are possible.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather will be possible Thursday, especially near and south of I-90.

- A pattern change could bring a return of winter by next weekend, with colder temperatures and moderate (40-60%) chances for accumulating snow by Saturday night-Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 450 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Quiet and continued mild early this morning, with temperatures in the 40s at 4 AM still above normal highs for early March. Surface cool front located near Chamberlain and Mitchell to Pipestone and Marshall will continue to sag southward early this morning, reaching the Highway 20 corridor around sunrise or shortly thereafter. not a strong cold push behind the front with 850mb warm advection redeveloping by mid afternoon which should keep highs in the 50s north of I-90 to 60s south.

Looking beyond the minor shot of wintry precip Tuesday night, those with travel plans next weekend will want to monitor the latest forecast updates throughout the week. The wave which could bring a glancing blow of light rain to northeast parts of the region Thursday-Thursday night looks to set the stage for a more active weekend with a potentially stronger wave bringing a couple chances for accumulating snow to at least northern parts of the region. Strength of the wave is still uncertain. However, a broad consensus in the 00Z ensembles shows a chance of light snow impacting portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota in the warm advection wing Friday night, followed by a greater chance of accumulating snow with the cold advection by Saturday night into Sunday. Confidence in the details of this system is low, but with winter sports tournaments ramping up, those with travel plans will want to pay attention to the latest forecast updates.

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A very mild March night continues across the area! A weak front will drop through the area from north to south heading into the early morning hours today, but this won't cause any notable impacts other than cooler temperatures mainly north of the Missouri River Valley this afternoon.

Still expecting a fairly sharp gradient of high temperatures for the day today, ranging from near 70 along Highway 20 to the low to mid 50s along Highway-14. The I-90 corridor is setting up to be more of the "transition zone" so to speak regarding the much above normal temperatures versus the slightly above normal temperatures. In other words, those locations along I-90 have the lower confidence forecast for highs today compared to elsewhere. Currently we're looking at highs in the upper 50s to low 60s from Chamberlain to Sioux Falls to Jackson, but we could end up a few degrees cooler or a few degrees warmer depending on how far south the cooler air dips into the area.

Still on track to receive some light snow Tuesday night. The latest NBM decreased snowfall totals slightly, but the overall thinking remains on track with limited impacts still expected. There is still that potential for a couple of inches closer to Highway-14 in southwest Minnesota and nearby eastern South Dakota, with ensemble probabilities of greater than 2 inches of snow around 20-30% in those areas. For Thursday's fire weather concerns, widespread Very High GFDI continues to be mainly wind driven, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible across the area. The lowest relative humidity values will be across the Missouri River Valley (20-30%), so this will likely be the main area of concern. Farther north, a wave passing through the region may bring about a few rain showers, which would boost RH values and help limit the fire weather concerns in these areas. Still some time for these rain chances to trend either farther north or south, so keep up to date with the latest forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A strong jet to the north will allow cooler air to sag southward overnight into Monday morning. This will bring a fairly tight gradient of temperatures at the surface on Monday. Highs will likely range from the lower 70s near KSUX to 50 to 55 along highway 14.

A quick moving system should bring some snow to the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The better chances will remain near and especially north of I-90 where a better thermal profile exists. There will be a strong mid level front that moves through Tuesday afternoon close to I-90 and if any instability can work into this band some earlier precipitation potential will be possible during the day, which would likely be a mix of rain and snow. One thing to watch will be with a fairly high dgz, above 700 mb, any loss of saturation, or over-forecasting of moisture below 700 mb may lead to mainly virga or very light snowfall. For now the impacts looks limited, but if everything comes together maybe a couple of inches north of I-90.

Cooler air settles in behind this wave and with some snow on the ground highs will likely be limited to the upper 30s to mid 40s in most locations.

Fire weather concerns return on Thursday as a wave moves by to the north and aids in strengthening mixing to the south. Went ahead and increased winds during this time and decreased dew points a touch. This will lead to most areas seeing elevated to near critical fire weather Thursday afternoon.

Fast west to northwest flow aloft remains in place Friday into the weekend which should allow for continued chances for precipitation. Thursday night into Friday will see some chances as a fairly strong wave moves by to the north. Sunday also shows some potential with a stronger wave moving through just north of the area and a strong mid level warm front expected to develop. Will need to keep an eye on this system. While temperatures will remain above normal during this time, they will remain a bit cooler with highs mostly in the 40s to lower 50s and if the system on Sunday pans out highs in the 30s would be more likely.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this period, though could see SCT to briefly BKN MVFR stratus north of I-90 (including KHON) mid-morning through midday (15Z-18Z) accompanied by northerly winds gusting near 20kt.

Any gusty winds are expected to decrease this afternoon, but could see occasional gusts 20-25kt redevelop after 03Z from the east to northeast.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.