textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Extensive clouds continue into Wednesday, with some potential for fog overnight.

- An extended period of dry weather is now expected through the upcoming weekend, and potentially longer.

- Temperatures are now favored to remain near or above normal through the upcoming weekend, with some potential for 60s by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: Extensive stratus remain in place across the Tri- State area, holding temperatures below normal in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some breaks in the clouds are possible through sunset, but may be brief.

TONIGHT: Stratus will be extensive across the region heading into the overnight hours. As we move past midnight, some erosion of the stratus is likely from west to east as mid-upr clouds increase. Guidance indicating that stratus further east may begin to settle downward after sunset, producing reduced visibilities in areas especially east of I- 29. Further west, if stratus clears after midnight, additional radiational cooling induced fog may develop west of the James River into central South Dakota. At this point, not expecting widespread dense fog, but a few locations may drop below 1 mile.

WEDNESDAY: Mid-lvl flow turns zonal on Wednesday, allowing southwesterly surface flow to return, and pushing stratus east during the day. The result will be temperatures climbing 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with 60s likely in south central South Dakota.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A front will pass through the region by Thursday morning with just a bit of increased mid-upr clouds. A very quiet end of the week is likely as high pressure moves through the Northern Plains. Temperatures may dip a couple degrees both days, but are still expected to remain 5+ degrees above normal.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: As a cut-off low develops over the southwestern US, warm zonal flow will prevail further north. This will bring an extended period of warm and dry weather through the weekend and into next week. Temperatures Saturday through Monday climb into the 50s and 60s which will be 10+ degrees above normal. The next risk for any rainfall may hold off until late Tuesday and Wednesday, but are highly dependent on the track of the ejecting southwest low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

IFR to MVFR ceilings will persist through the afternoon hours. A few short breaks may develop at times, briefly allowing skies to scatter, however these should be short lived.

Stratus may begin to expand after sunset with IFR to MVFR ceilings expected to continue. Slightly reduced visibility over northwest Iowa may expand westward and northwestward overnight with localized potential for 1 mile or lower visibility, but more widespread risks for 3-6SM visibility.

Winds remain light through the overnight hours.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.