textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect mild and dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the 50s to mid 60s.

- A system to the north will swing cooler temperatures southward for Thursday and Friday. A few sprinkles or very light showers are possible Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 837 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

High clouds continue to filter across the area this evening and will push southeast of us by the early morning hours Sunday. This is happening as a weak cold front sweeps through the area from west to east, which will result in lower dew points being advected in as winds turn northwesterly behind the front. This drier air should prevent fog from developing even as skies clear, with the exception being in river valleys where very patchy fog is a possibility. The better chances (30-40%) will be along and near river valleys near and south of Highway 18 in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota where the drier air arrives last. Any fog should burn off by around 9 am. Temperatures are in good shape, no notable changes there as lows drop to the middle to upper 30s by sunrise.

High temperatures over-performed today from the NBM, and that trend more than likely continues for Sunday afternoon. With mostly sunny skies, dry air, and fairly light winds expected on Sunday, do expect things to be a bit warmer than what the NBM suggests. That said, it's looking like we'll see highs tomorrow range from the upper 50s to middle 60s, coolest in southwest Minnesota and warmest in south-central South Dakota. This is closer to the 90th percentile of the 07.12Z LREF, which appears more representative. Some high clouds moving through may prevent maximum warming from being realized, but this likely won't have a major effect on temperatures. Either way, another nice day looks to be taking shape to close out the weekend!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Dry west to northwest flow aloft will bring dry and mild conditions to the surface through early next week. A weak boundary will sag into the area later tonight into Sunday as low pressure moves east along the Canadian border. Other than a little moisture in the 500 to 300 mb layer, dry air below will keep any precipitation from forming. Given the mild low levels, expect highs in the 50s and 60s Sunday and Monday, warmer on Monday.

Another weak surface cool front sags south Monday night into Tuesday, but high temperatures will still climb well into the 50s. Once again, the wave to the north responsible for this weak front lacks moisture, so precipitation is not expected.

A sharp ridge of high pressure will develop over the western U.S. and allow for a northerly upper level jet to dive south onto the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will likely bring a quick shot of light precipitation with only minor impacts anticipated. The latest EC, Canadian and GFS ensemble output only hinting at a 5-10 percent chance for more than a tenth of an inch of rain.

The sharp ridge of high pressure aloft strengthens through the week, keeping northerly flow in place through the end of the week with near to below normal temperatures expected. This ridge is then expected to spread across the Plains neat weekend which would support very mild, above normal temperatures. Precipitation during this time is not expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Some patchy valley fog remains possible mainly near and south of Highway 18 in southeastern South Dakota and northwestern Iowa. Dense fog is unlikely (<15% chance). Any fog that does develop should burn off an hour or two after sunrise. Outside of any morning fog, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Scattered areas of low level wind shear will be a concern for the first few hours of the period north of I-90 before diminishing. Northwesterly winds around 5-8 kts at the surface will be the norm through the mid morning hours, with winds turning more southerly as we head throughout the afternoon and evening. Winds will pick up around 10-15 kts west of the James River to end the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.