textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures will persist across the area over the next several days with most sites sitting between 10-20 degrees above normal. The warmest conditions will likely occur on Monday with moderate to high chances (40%-75%) of highs in the 60s along the Missouri River Valley.

- With the well above normal temperatures ahead, a few new record highs could be set or tied by Monday across the area.

- While mostly quiet conditions are expected into the new week, a pattern shift during the middle of next week could lead to light precipitation chances (20%-30%) returning between Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

A stratus deck continues to blanket the area mainly west of I-29 as of this afternoon. There has been some instability in the cloud layer today, but haven't seen any reports of sprinkles or flurries from it. The stratus deck sticks around especially north of I-90 through this evening, but won't cause any impacts as we lose whatever instability we had with loss of daytime heating. So we have a quiet night ahead as a surface high slides across the Upper Midwest, moving east of the area through the night and allowing for southeasterly surface winds to return area-wide by daybreak tomorrow. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the lower teens over southwest Minnesota to the upper 20s over south-central South Dakota. Warm air advection (WAA) will increase with the passage of a mid-level wave during the day tomorrow, allowing us to warm up quickly with highs tomorrow afternoon ranging from the middle 30s east to middle 50s west. Saturday will be breezy too with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible at times. This will lead to a locally high fire danger in locations that haven't seen much if any snow depth recently, especially if your location rises at least into the 50s tomorrow afternoon. Relative humidity values will be above critical levels, but if a fire develops it could spread quickly so be sure to use extra caution out there. Sunday is dry and mild, but less breezy, with highs continuing to stay well above average. High temperatures on Sunday look to be mainly in the 40s and 50s (with even a few 60 degree readings possible in south-central South Dakota).

Monday still looks to be the warmest day of the next seven as the upper ridge axis crosses our area and WAA increases ahead of a developing low pressure system over the north-central High Plains. Highs look to be at least in the 50s for most of the area with a moderate to high (40-75%) chance that the Missouri River Valley will see highs in the 60s. Chances have decreased farther northeast from previous runs, as we are now looking at a less than 25% chance of highs in the 60s as far north as a Huron to Sioux Falls to Storm Lake line. This is likely due to some guidance indicating greater cloud cover associated with high clouds from the aforementioned system to our west. Here is a look at the current forecast for Monday and the associated record highs:

Sioux Falls Forecast High: 58. Record: 58 (1977)

Sioux City Forecast High: 64. Record: 62 (1954)

Mitchell Forecast High: 56. Record: 64 (1999)

Huron Forecast High: 54. Record: 58 (1977)

A dry cold front moves through Monday night, bringing cooler temperatures for Tuesday. Still looking at above average temperatures though with highs mainly in the 40s. An active upper pattern will send several waves our way through the week, with guidance all over the place on precipitation potential. For example, the 12z EC brings a low pressure system through the central Plains and brings us some rain/snow on the north side of the system on Wednesday and Thursday while the 12z GFS and CMC have no such thing. Looking to ensembles to get a better idea on the probabilities of precipitation, the NBM has around a 20-50% chance of measurable QPF on both Wednesday and Thursday across the area while the LREF has a 30-60% chance during that time. Once you start looking at the probability of at least a 0.1" of QPF, chances generally drop down to 25% or less on both the NBM and the LREF. So bottom line, there is a lot of uncertainty and greater model consistency is needed before going higher or lower with the broad 20-30% PoPs the NBM has for both Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain above normal through the rest of next week, with no signs of any Arctic blasts in at least the near-future.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

MVFR and VFR stratus continues this evening for much of eastern SD, northeastern NE into far western IA and MN. Guidance isn't handling the extent nor category of this well, so went a bit more pessimistic with the timing of potential clearing for KHON and KFSD. We may bounce between upper end MVFR and lower end VFR, and kept both terminals at VFR based on the majority of surrounding observations. Stratus is expected to mix out during the morning hours Saturday, leading to a return in VFR conditions.

Northerly winds this evening taper down and become variable as we switch to southeasterly winds. We'll see an increase in winds from west to east through the overnight hours, with gusts across the area 25 to around 30 knots through the afternoon hours. Winds taper down toward sunset Saturday.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.