textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from Saturday mid-morning until Saturday evening. The combination of warm temperatures, very dry conditions, and very strong winds could lead to rapid or explosive fire growth. This is a potentially dangerous situation.

- Though Saturday will be the highest fire risk day, conditions remain near critical to critical Sunday and Monday. Please refrain from burning this afternoon into the early part of next week.

- Tuesday the potential for rain and snow return to the region.

- A more active pattern looks to set up for the remainder of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Looking aloft we see an upper ridge continuing to settle over the central United States. At the surface high pressure is pushing into the region, resulting in subsiding air. At the surface this means significant drying is taking place causing dew points fall into the single digits to teens. The resultant relative humidity this afternoon will be near critical to critical falling to less than 25% south of a rough line from Huron to Ida Grove. North of there humidity will range from 25-35%. Northwest winds will be decreasing through the afternoon, therefore the highest gusts and lowest relative humidity should be offset from one another by a couple hours. However, Fire Danger remains High to Very High today. Critical to near critical fire conditions continue through the weekend and into next week. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for further details. As far as highs for this afternoon are concerned they will be close to average for this time of year, in the 40s for most of the CWA with a few 50s possible along and south of Highway 20. Overnight lows will be cold thanks to clear skies and light winds, in the 20s.

Overnight the center of the surface high will move to the southeast, turning winds to the south. Strong WAA ahead of a low pressure moving southeast out of Alberta will work to tighten the pressure gradient from the surface through the mid-levels. Surface winds and the LLJ increase in response. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph are expected Saturday morning through the late afternoon. Good afternoon mixing will tap into the 45-55 kts jet, mixing down gusts of 40-45 mph with a few gusts between the James River Valley and I-29 potentially reaching 50 mph. Winds are very near Wind Advisory criteria, but with a little uncertainty in peak gusts remaining, and after collaboration with neighbors, have decided to wait on issuing a headline at this time. Highs for Saturday will climb to the upper 50s to low 60s east of I-29. To the west low to upper 60s are expected. Overnight lows will be in the 30s. The combination of strong winds, dry conditions, and warm temperatures have resulted in the issuance of a Red Flag Warning Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

Another warm and dry day is in store Sunday, but thankfully with lighter winds. The previously mentioned low will traverse from Montana through Wyoming and into Nebraska, passing by just to our south. As it does so winds will gradually become northeast to east. Highs will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s north of I-90, with temperatures increasing to the upper 70s as you move south. Even warmer for Monday with highs in the upper 70s to the mid 80s. A more organized wave takes shape and moves toward the region Monday. Winds increase again turning from east to south to southwest and gusting 20-25 mph. Overnight Monday into Tuesday the wave and associated low pressure system drag a cold front through the region. Winds become north to northwest and once again gusty. Overall guidance is in fairly good agreement for a system that is still four days out. But there remains a few deviations in exact track of the low and where the heaviest precipitation will fall. For now will carry the NBM low PoPs of 15-30%. Precipitation will most likely begin as rain and may transition to a wintry mix to snow through the day Tuesday. A more active pattern for the latter half of the week may bring additional rain and snow chances Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR through the period. The maion concern will be wind on Saturday. Winds will increase quickly from the south on Saturday morning with gusts of 35 to 50 mph likely. Fire weather conditions are extreme on Saturday as well, so care should be taken with anything flammable.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

An extremely dry air mass remains in place Saturday with dewpoints in the single digits to teens. The combination of strong winds gusting 40-45 mph, warm highs in the 50s and 60s, and very dry conditions will allow relative humidity to fall as low as 13% across the entire region. Conditions are ripe for rapid to explosive fire growth, and could lead to a potentially dangerous situation. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire CWA Saturday morning until Saturday evening. Burning is not recommended under any circumstances.

Sunday dew points recover slowly, and though winds are lighter the warmer highs in the 60s and 70s will still result in High Grassland Fire Danger. Monday will see better moisture recovery ahead of an incoming storm system. However, even higher temperatures in the 70s and 80s and south winds gusting 20-25 mph will once again lead to near critical to critical Fire Danger. Conditions for Tuesday finally ease as chances for precipitation return to the forecast.

During this time, please refrain from burning. Ensure that equipment and chains are all properly stowed before heading out on the road to avoid dragging sparks. Do not throw cigarettes out of the vehicle windows. If you are working in areas with tall grasses please ensure the hot exhaust of vehicles is not in contact. If you see a fire, report it immediately!

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. MN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ071- 072-080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ013- 014.