textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A few sprinkles to very light showers will be possible tonight. However, any accumulations would be limited. The main threat will be localized gusty winds with the showers.

- Additional isolated shower and very isolated thunderstorm chances are possible Monday afternoon into Monday night. If a storm can develop wind gusts to around 50 mph will be possible. The better chances will be south of I-90.

- After seasonal temperatures this weekend into Monday, cooler than normal temperatures return midweek. Early morning frost or near-freezing temperatures will again be possible Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

A fast moving wave will track southeast into ND and MN into tonight. This will spread some mid level moisture through the area that happens to reside within the dgz. With some very weak instability lifting from about 700 mb a few showers will be likely this evening. Severe weather is not expected but with a very dry sub cloud layer a few wind gusts to 35 to 45 mph will be possible. The better chances will be near and east of I-29.

A weak front will settle into the area late tonight but have little affect on temperatures Sunday. Winds will turn from the north to more westerly on Sunday evening. Highs mild in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Model soundings indicate maybe a little patchy cumulus in the afternoon but no instability for showers, so looking dry.

A weak wave and marginal instability, generally 500 J/kg CAPE or lower, will move into the area Monday. A broad trough to the north will settle south and push cooler air into the area. Near and ahead of this front, generally south of I-90, the environment may support some gusty winds to around 50 mph with the stronger showers or isolated thunderstorms that may develop later Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

Northwest flow aloft remains in place Tuesday through next weekend. This will bring a series of waves through the area but for now moisture looks fairly limited so the threat for more than scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remains low. Currently the better chances appear to come with a weaker wave Wednesday into Wednesday night then Thursday night into Friday with a bit stronger wave.

Outside of the shower and thunderstorm potential will be frost and freeze potential with light winds on Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. Fairly widespread morning lows of 30 to 35 are expected.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. A few light showers to sprinkles are possible this evening into tonight, but most of the area will stay dry. A few of these showers could bring down stronger wind gusts to 35-40 kts, but chances of this at any individual location is low (<20%). This threat of stronger wind gusts in showers should diminish after sunset. Otherwise, a cold front will move through the area tonight, turning winds north-northwesterly as we head into the day Sunday. LLWS concerns are expected mainly south of I-90 tonight as winds atop a surface inversion gust to 40-45 kts.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.