textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A few sprinkles to light showers will continue through this evening especially across the Highway-20 corridor with mainly light accumulations expected.

- Patchy areas of frost will be possible tonight mainly across the Highway-14 corridor. Additional chances for scattered areas of frost/freeze conditions are expected by midweek. However, some uncertainty remains. Make sure to cover/bring in any sensitive vegetation!

- After below normal temperatures through midweek, near to above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend with highs mainly in the 60s to 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: Another mild and breezy day persists! Taking a look across the area, the breeziness continues behind this morning's cold front with most observations showing northerly wind with gusts between 25-35 mph along with temperatures mainly in the 50s to 60s. With deeper mixing and lower dew points, near-critical RH values continue with values in the 25-30 percent range. While the combination of the ingredients above have led to locally elevated fire concerns; decided to hold off on any fire-related headlines mainly due to greening fuels. Otherwise, can't completely rule out a few scattered sprinkles along and south of the Highway-20 corridor this evening. Nonetheless, with limited saturation according to sounding; expect any accumulations to very light at best. Lastly, as cloud cover thins and surface winds lighten overnight; an influx of cooler air will lead to temperatures mainly in the low to upper 30s for the night. With this in mind, could see some patchy frost develop mainly along the Highway-14 corridor overnight. While the extent is still in question mainly due to a higher dew point depression, decided to also hold off on an frost/freeze headlines at this time.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Looking into the midweek, we'll continue to sit in northerly flow aloft as a predominantly troughy pattern continues aloft. With lingering mid-level cold air advection (CAA) and predominantly northwesterly flow in place at the surface, expect temperatures to temporarily decrease through at least Wednesday with highs mainly in the low to upper 50s. With lows expected to be near to below freezing (26-32 degrees) each night, additional chances for more widespread frost/freeze development are expected especially by Wednesday. However, with an 8-10 degree dew point depression and variable cloud cover at times; there are still some questions as to extent of the frost/freeze. Nonetheless, we should be about to hit a turning point by Thursday as increasing mid-level warm air advection (WAA) and the return of southwesterly to westerly winds help highs climb back into the 60s. Lastly, any precipitation chances continue to look rather limited for the period.

THE WEEKEND: Heading into the extended period, an active pattern will once again return as northwesterly flow helps usher in multiple waves through our area. The strongest of which looks to arrive between Saturday to Sunday. While there is still some variability among long-range guidance, this still looks like our best chances (30%-40%) for areas along and south of I-90 to see rain. This is further agreed upon within ensemble guidance with most members showing a 20%-40% chance of 0.10" of an inch or greater of QPF. While not a drought buster by any means, any potential rain chances are encouraged at this point. Lastly, we'll continue our warming trend into the weekend with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. Besides some approaching VFR stratus and a few sprinkles to light showers at KSUX this evening, not expecting much avaition-wise. Otherwise, northerly surface winds will continue to be breezy through this evening with gusts between 25-35 mph. Lastly, winds will gradually decrease after sunset.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.