textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light showers from I-90 south will gradually diminish from west to east through the afternoon. A very small chance (10%) of a stronger shower/isolated thunderstorm in southwest MN which could produce a wind gust around 40 mph.

- Greatest severe weather threat remains focused south of the Missouri River Saturday.

- Models a bit more consistent on keeping the heavier rain south of the Missouri River as well. The probability for an inch of rain about 30-50 percent along the Missouri River and closer to 10 to 20 percent along I-90.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Showers will exit the area late this afternoon as the weak wave pushes east. Rainfall amounts continue to remain on the light side. A very small chance for an isolated shower/thunderstorm in southwest MN this evening. If something can develop a wind gust to 40 mph will be possible. Otherwise, behind the weak wave that brought these showers, surface high pressure will nudge into the area with temperatures expected to fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s on Saturday morning.

Saturday looks dry and mild with light winds. After the cool morning starts, highs should mostly be in the 70s.

Saturday night into Sunday will see upper level low pressure settle into the area with broad low to mid level warm air advection locking into place. Overall the instability is on the weak side so severe weather chances remain very low. Even the heavy rain threat is pretty muted, with mainly the Missouri River area seeing a chance for an inch or more of rainfall into Monday morning. Given the very dry conditions will need to see much more then 1-2" of rain over a 24 to 36 hour period to have any concern for flooding or flash flooding. And given the expected weaker instability, brief rainfall rates of 2-4" per hour also seem very unlikely.

Next week will see continued northwest flow aloft which will limit any instability that can build into the area. There will be a few waves that move through the area in this northwest flow, but the threat for heavy rain and severe weather will be low. This northwest flow will also keep cooler conditions in place with below normal temperatures expected each day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR through the period. Scattered showers near and south of I-90 will gradually dissipate through the afternoon from west to east. After sunset quiet weather and light winds are expected the remainder of the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.