textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through Monday before more seasonable conditions return from Tuesday onwards.

- Drier conditions with periodic breeziness will lead to additional elevated to near critical fire weather concerns through the early week. However, some uncertainty remains.

- A pattern shift by late week will lead to increasing chances for rain and/or snow heading into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Continuing to see a gradual recovery overnight with many areas observing RH values in the 25-35 percent range. With elevated southeasterly winds continuing to gradually taper off, our fire weather threat has mostly diminished. Looking ahead, while the drier conditions will continue into today; winds will be much lighter with gusts between 10-20 mph possible. While this could lead to locally high fire danger mainly across northwestern IA, still thinking any concerns would be fairly limited in scope given the lighter winds. Nonetheless, with crispy fuels and RH values in the 20-30 percent range for the day; outdoor burning is not recommended. Otherwise, temperatures will continue their warmer trend with highs mainly in the low to upper 70s.

Looking into Monday, increasing mid-level warm air advection (WAA) and increasing south to southwest surface winds will boost temperatures to their warmest point of the week with highs in the 70s to mid 80s. This combined with dry fuels and periodic breeziness could lead to a locally elevated fire weather threat mainly along the Missouri River Valley and portions of northwestern IA. However, a few convective showers could mitigate even that as a cold front sags southwards during the day. Nonetheless, it will be something to watch moving forward. By Tuesday, more seasonable conditions return as cooler air funnels into the region. The SPG will tighten leading breezy north-northwest winds with gusts between 25-35 mph expected. While this combined with near-critical RH values (25-35%) will lead to the return of widespread very high fire danger; the potential for persistent cloud cover during the day doesn't bode well for the threat since this will also affect our temperatures and thus our overall RH values.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: Extreme fire weather conditions have developed through the Tri-State area as relative humidity values have plummeted and gusts remain within the 30-45 mph range early this afternoon. Temperatures continue to rise towards the upper 50s to 60s. Dust RGB CVD imagery has persistently shown stripes of localized blowing dust, with numerous cameras showing a thickening layer in the lower atmosphere at mid-day. With winds spreading eastward this afternoon, scattered blowing dust will continue through the afternoon. We're also watching the potential for a larger area of dust aloft moving up through northern Kansas and Nebraska later this afternoon. The latest surface dust concentration guidance shows moderate concentrations arriving into the CWA after 00Z which may linger through the overnight hours. Localized visibility and air quality may be impacted though there is greater potential this remains as an elevated layer of haze. Will spread BD mention throughout the forecast into early evening, but the coverage of impacts may not be high enough for an advisory.

TONIGHT: Light to breezy southerly winds persist through the night, keeping temperatures warmer than normal. Air quality may still have some minor impacts. Dew points will recover slightly, but RH will still remain low.

SUNDAY: A weak surface front remains stalled in the Dakotas and Minnesota on Sunday, leaving a light and variable to southerly wind in place. Plenty of warm air in the region, along with dry ground should allow temperature to exceed the deterministic NBM and climb a bit more towards the 75/90th percentile. While RH will be low, lighter winds will preclude higher fire danger in most areas.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: An UPR trough crossing the Canadian Rockies will flatten the mid-lvl flow early Monday, allowing weak mid- lvl vorticity to move through the Plains and forcing the aforementioned frontal boundary southward. While there may be quite a bit of mid-upr cloud cover during the day Monday, temperatures should have no issue surging into the 70s and 80s in the afternoon. Have bumped up highs a few degrees from NBM guidance, but we'll remain away from record high values ATTM. Winds remain a more challenging point of contention which some increased potential for 20 to 25 mph gusts along and south of the settling frontal boundary in the afternoon.

Upper troughing moving along the Canadian border will push a stronger cold front southward Monday night, with strong cold advection pushing gusts into the 35 to 45 mph range into the pre- dawn hours of Tuesday. Have bumped up wind gusts towards the 90th percentile. A few passing spits of rain will be possible early Tuesday, however soundings suggest difficulty in top-down saturation.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: Deterministic solutions begin to differ considerably by the middle and end of next week, with even more spread apparent in ensemble clusters. Some consistency in guidance that brings a mid-lvl shortwave through the Four Corners and Plains Wednesday and Thursday. The favored track of this wave would place the highest measurable PoPs through portions of central Nebraska and Iowa with only a 30-40% probability of 0.10" of QPF along and south of I-90 into Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday may struggle to rise through the 40s, with trends in ensemble guidance suggesting lowering probabilities of exceeding 50 degrees. So it's possible to see high temperatures lower slightly in future forecast.

By Friday, a larger upper trough crosses the Northern Rockies and heads towards the Plains. The deepening southwesterly low-lvl flow will allow moisture to stream northward and also bring increasing risks for rain to the region ahead of an advancing cold front. A high degree of model variability develop by the end of next with this system and the placement of the front. While LREF probabilities of >0.10" of QPF are >50%, these probabilities are spread over an extremely large area suggesting the potential for high QPF in a majority of solutions, but low ensemble confidence in placement of that QPF.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. LLWS will continue to be a concern at KSUX through daybreak. Surface winds will be out of the south-southeast heading into the daylight hours, around 8-12 kts. A weak boundary crosses the area through the day today, making winds generally light and variable from the afternoon through the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.