textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures through next week.

- Breezy to windy conditions are expected through the middle of next week, especially west of I-29. Strongest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph on Tuesday may result in elevated fire danger.

- Dry weather continues through the first half of next week. More active weather looks likely late next week, possibly centered around Friday/Saturday. Rain should be the main precipitation type with an isolated thunderstorm possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Tonight through Tuesday will see a battle of low pressure across the Rockies and a stubborn, slow to exit high pressure over the midwest and Great Lakes area. What this means for the local area is a tightening surface pressure gradient through Tuesday and above normal temperatures. Given the stronger winds aloft and the tightening gradient, southerly winds will likely gusts to 25 to 35 mph on Sunday and Monday and possibly as high as 45 to 50 mph on Tuesday. The increased winds are in response to the low pressure over the Rockies shifting across the Western High Plains.

With precipitation not expected during this time, grasses will continue to cure after a wet September/October as well as soils likely losing some saturation as well. This suggests that we may see some elevated fire weather concerns Sunday, Monday and especially Tuesday. The good news is the majority of the harvest is over so fire starts will be less likely.

As the trough to the west deepens and moves eastward, southerly flow increase Tuesday, increasing warm advection across the region. While some stratocumulus will be possible, instability is pretty much non-existent and the dgz remains dry, so precipitation is not expected, or will remain very isolated.

Strong southerly flow remains in place into Wednesday as a stronger piece of energy ejects into the Northern and Central Plains. We will see better saturation within the dgz as well as the potential for some very weak instability, so some very late afternoon and evening showers will be possible. This will likely be a short period of lift as a strong dry punch follows this mid and upper level wave, shutting down precipitation chances for Thursday.

Once this wave passes the next, stronger wave will move into the area Friday into Saturday. While agreement on the finer, and important details is somewhat low, most models and model runs are bringing this stronger energy into the area. The latest models and ensembles as well as AI output are all hinting at a good chance for a half an inch of rain or more to the area Friday into Saturday, with the better chance Friday night. Given the steep mid level lapse rates some elevated convection will also be possible which could focus these higher rainfall amounts into a smaller area. As for precipitation type, for now with a weak northern stream upper level jet, warmer low level air should surge north and remain in place helping to keep the main precipitation type rain. As colder air spills in behind a brief changeover to snow would be possible but for now this does not look like it will bring any moderate or major winter weather impacts to the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR through the period. South winds will gust around 25 mph west of I-29 this afternoon.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.