textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A few flurries will once again be possible in southwestern MN with any resulting accumulations being very light.

- While confidence is low (<30%), could see a light wintry mix return to areas south of I-90 by Friday with the focus being along southcentral SD and the Missouri River Valley. Any resulting accumulations would be light.

- Seasonably cool temperatures will into the start of the weekend with minimal precipitation chances. Temperatures will trend above normal heading into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

TODAY & TONIGHT: Another seasonably cool day ahead! Taking a look across the area, mostly quiet conditions persist this morning as a surface high approaches from the northwest. As we head towards daybreak this morning, expect cloud cover to gradually fill in as mid-level warm air advection (WAA) increases ahead of our next shortwave. With the better dynamics to our north and northeast, any precipitation with this wave will be limited. However, given the increasing low-level moisture in stratus according to soundings across southwestern MN; can't completely rule out a brief period of "insta-flurries" from late morning to early afternoon. Nonetheless, any accumulations would be limited (if any). Otherwise, another chilly day is in stored with highs mainly in the 20s to 30s with the warmest conditions across the Missouri River Valley. Lastly, quieter conditions should return by the evening hours as temperatures fall into the single digits to teens for the night.

THE WEEKEND: Looking into the holiday weekend, northwesterly flow will remain in place aloft across the Northern Plains as the Hudson Bay trough strengthens and upper-level ridging continues to build over the western CONUS. Our next shortwave will eject out of the Rockies by Friday and follow the NE/SD boarder into our area initially before being driven southeastwards by a strengthening surface high. With the latest run of guidance, the dynamics have come in a bit better with the wave and soundings continue to indicated a few hours of saturation in the DGZ. As a result, decided to introduce some slight chance POPs (20%-25%) into areas along and south of I-90 for most of the day on Friday. Given surface temperatures in the 20s to low 30s and a small warm nose aloft, p- types could range from a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet to just light snow. Nonetheless, any accumulations would be light at best with most ensemble guidance showing 10%-20% probabilities of 0.10" of an inch or greater of snowfall. Otherwise, the wave train continues for the rest of the weekend with at least one shortwave per day and limited chances for any accumulating precipitation. Lastly, multiple pushes of warm air advection (WAA) through Sunday will help temperatures take on a warming trend. As a result, highs will gradually increasing into the 30s to 40s from most areas with the potential for a few low 50s across southcentral SD by Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Heading into the extended period, the return of quasi- zonal flow aloft will lead to an active stretch through midweek. Multiple waves will progress through the Northern Plains. However, either the better dynamic will pass just north of us or limited saturation will keep any measurable chances to minimum. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend more mild through Thursday with highs mainly in the upper 30s to low 50s across the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

The low level stratus, sitting at MVFR levels, continues to push southwestwards late this evening. In fact, the stratus appears to have accelerated in pace as it is already through KFSD. Some uncertainty remains in when the stratus will clear KHON as the stratus is progressing more slowly in that area.

While the stratus will clear the area overnight, some uncertainty presents itself for tomorrow morning as some of the guidance is suggesting that a second round of MVFR may develop along and north of I-90. Was not confident enough to include a full ceiling so have gone with a scattered ceiling at KHON and KFSD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period with winds turning out of the south/southeast for tomorrow afternoon. Winds will go light and variable tomorrow evening to finish out the TAF period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.