textproduct: Sioux Falls
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated fire weather conditions today with gusty southerly winds.
- Above normal temperatures through next Saturday, 10 to 20 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday.
- Precipitation chances remain very low until late next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Strong southerly flow remains in place through Sunday as a jet max tracks by to the north along the Canadian border. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be possible along the Buffalo Ridge tonight, with the better chances for the higher winds this evening into the early overnight hours. This will bring milder lows tonight, generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with highs Sunday warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s, warmest west of the James. As this jet max shifts east of the area, a weak front will sag into the area and will help to diminish the stronger southerly winds. This will likely lead to more lows on Monday morning in the upper 30s, but not as cold as this morning. With a somewhat slow recovery to southerly flow temperatures will be a touch cooler and close to the seasonal normals in the lower 60s.
Monday night into Tuesday southerly flow increases and brings warmer readings back into the area. Highs will generally be 65 to 70 degrees.
A quick moving trough will swing through Tuesday night into Wednesday and bring a very small chance for very light rainfall amounts. For now will leave any mention out of the forecast, but the slightly better chances will be in northwest IA.
Very mild air will build into the area Wednesday into Saturday with highs very likely in the upper 60s to mid 70s each day. With strong southerly flow on a few of the days overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s, about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Will need to keep an eye on the fire weather potential late week into the weekend as fuels continue to cure and harvesting activities peak.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
VFR through the period. Southerly surface winds will gust to 25 to 35 mph, with a few gusts tonight around 45 mph over the Buffalo Ridge. Some LLWS will be possible tonight, but surface winds should continue to gust to 20 to 25 mph.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.
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