textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and dry conditions continue into early next week. High temperatures will average 25 to 35 degrees above normal, bringing the potential for record warm lows and near record warm highs.

- Southerly winds increase late in the weekend into next week bringing a slight increase in fire weather concerns.

- The next precipitation chances return to the forecast by Tuesday through Thursday of next week as a more energetic pattern arrives. Probabilities for more than 0.10" remain less than 30% at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

THIS Afternoon: Skies have cleared this afternoon, but winds remain light and variable. Temperatures again will rise into the 50s in most locations, nearly 20+ degrees above normal.

TONIGHT: Skies remain clear into the overnight hours and winds remain light and variable as high pressure drifts through the region. The strong radiational cooling, dry ground, and clear skies should lead to temperatures falling slightly cooler than NBM, especially in valley areas. Some patchy fog could again be possible through dense fog is not expected.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: An extremely warm and quiet weekend is ahead for the region as zonal mid-lvl flow persists. A southerly stream system passing through the Central and Southern Plains may cast a bit of cloud cover into the area on Saturday. Temperatures will be the main story as daily highs rise into the 50s with increasing chances for the 60s on Saturday and Sunday. The deterministic NBM has been a touch cool the past days, so have blended in a bit of the 75/90th percentile. Winds stay fairly light into the weekend leading to some absolutely beautiful mid-February days. We begin to see lee-side troughing on Sunday in response to an upper trough building over the western CONUS. The result will be an increase in southerly surface winds through Sunday. 925:850 mb winds only peak at 30 knots, so high wind gusts aren't likely. A deeper look at soundings on Sunday would suggest afternoon gusts near 20 to 25 mph, but even more pronounced may be falling dew points. LREF as well as the NBM Td spreads in the afternoon range around 10 degrees, and based on soundings, mixing depth, and soil moisture conditions, would lean guidance closer to the 25th percentile.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Broad evolution in the mid-lvl pattern begins next week as the mid-lvl ridge flattens and troughing grows over the West Coast. As typical this Winter, we'll see that upper trough splinter as it tries to move east, with an initial wave entering the Plains by Tuesday. Deterministic models have waffled a bit early in the week, with some pushing a weak cold front southward on Monday, and others holding that boundary just north of the CWA. This is resulting in quite a bit of spread in ensemble high temperatures Monday and Tuesday, running around 10-15 degrees in the NBM and LREF. For now the deterministic NBM is hovering on the warmer side of guidance with highs in the lower 60s. Even if temperatures cool in future forecasts, the bottom remains in the 50s, some 20 degrees above normal. As far as precipitation is concerned, that initial wave passing through Tuesday will be relatively moisture starved, resulting in only passing rain chances Tuesday. Probabilities of more than 0.10" remain less than 30%. Greater precipitation chances arrive Wednesday into Thursday when stronger lift enters the Plains. At this time the persistent northerly track of waves this Winter would favor the highest PoPs along or just north of the CWA into Wednesday. With temperatures remaining quite warm, the dominate precipitation type is likely to remain liquid turning to snow. No matter what happens, the pattern next week will certainly be more "interesting" than the pattern of this week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 452 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Clear skies and light and variable winds will prevail for this period. Near sunrise there is a low chance for river and valley fog, but confidence is too low to include for any of the TAF sites. Any fog that does form will burn off quickly after sunrise.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.