textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- LOW RAIN CHANCES: A few sprinkles to very light showers are possible mainly along and north of I-90 this afternoon and again late afternoon/evening Saturday. Rainfall totals will remain minimal.

- WINDY AND WARM SATURDAY: Gusty south to southwest winds will build tonight and continue Saturday. Isolated 40 mph winds will be possible, highest over the Buffalo Ridge. This pushes highs towards the 70s.

- COOL, SUNNY SUNDAY: A front passing Saturday night brings cool and comfortable weather with a bit of morning valley fog.

- PROLONGED DRY AND MILD PATTERN: Next week looks exceptionally quiet and dry, with above average temperatures into the weekend and low probability (<20%) of meaningful rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: Mid-lvl clouds associated with increased warm advection on the 700:600 mb layer will continue to spread north and east. Satellite showers increasing cloud growth north of I-90, so anticipating very light showers to sprinkles will accompany this cloud cover eastward, focused primarily north of I-90 towards Highway 14 (Huron, Brookings, Marshall) into very early evening. QPF amounts will remain minimal.

TONIGHT: Lee side troughing over the western High Plains will begin to shift eastward overnight, allowing an increased SPG to keep a rather breezy southeasterly wind through the area. Unlike Friday, morning, low temperatures should be much warmer through the region. The highest gusts may be near the higher terrain areas of the Buffalo ridge where 30 to 40 mph gusts are possible.

SATURDAY: A surface front slowly crawls east on Saturday, keeping breezy to gusty south and then southwest winds through the CWA. Soundings suggest a period of stronger mixing from mid-morning through early afternoon with a few 40+ mph gusts could be possible (highest in the Ridge areas). With less cloud cover ahead of the front, and deep mixing we should see a rise in temperatures towards the 70s in the afternoon. The populated NBM sits at the 75th percentile, but with the increased mixing and warm low-lvls would not be surprised to see highs a bit warmer and have nudged us into the 90th percentile in a few areas. Have also lowered dew points slightly. The arrival a subtle shortwave by mid afternoon could lead to scattered sprinkles to light showers along and north of Highway 14 in the afternoon and into SW Minnesota in the evening. QPF will be very light.

SATURDAY NIGHT: The passage of the front will bring slightly cooler temperatures southeast overnight. Would not be surprised to see patchy fog by Sunday morning as winds weaken.

SUNDAY: Cooler Canadian high pressure arrives for Sunday, featuring light winds and plenty of sunshine. This should be an absolutely beautiful fall day with highs in the mid 60s.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: A VERY quiet forecast remains for most of next week as broad mid-lvl ridging over the CONUS forces stronger jet stream energy north of the Canadian border. With the prevailing flow forcing any meaningful Gulf air away from the area, and no ability to bring any tropical air from the East Pacific, we're expecting a dry week. In fact the latest GEFS/ECE ensembles paint less than a 20% chance for >0.10" over the next 10 days in the Tri-State area.

Temperatures will be influenced by the passage of several weak fronts through the week. A return of gusty winds on Monday marks the first dry frontal passage Monday night. A second front passes through the area by Thursday. Temperatures are already favored to be warmer than normal through the region, and would not be surprised to see a few of those breezier days even warmer. 850mb temperature anomalies are expected to be at or above the 75th percentile through the week, further supporting the arrival of an extended period of above normal temperatures into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue through the period. With the strengthening of the LLJ, LLWS to impact southeast SD and southwest MN overnight and into the morning hours starting around 3z near KHON and strengthening southeastward to KFSD. Gusty winds up to 24 knots will remain areas east of Highway 81 and after the LLWS clears the area around 14-15z. Scattered showers along and north of I-90 are possible through the afternoon, however no impacts to aviation are expected at this time.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.