textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 9 pm as snow showers persist across the area. Near whiteout conditions are expected with the periodic snow chances and wind gusts up to 55 mph. - Very cold tonight into Monday morning with wind chill values 15 to 30 below zero. The Cold Weather Advisory has been expanded to include Moody, Lake, and Kingsbury counties in South Dakota.

- Additional chances for snow are possible throughout next week. Though details are uncertain as of now, but the best chances are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Confidence is increasing in the another round of very cold temperatures coming for the end of the week and weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Low level stratus and associated snow showers persist across the area this afternoon. Visibilities remain nominal outside of snow showers but drops down to a mile or less in the snow showers. Winds have strengthened up to 40-55 mph but will slowly decrease through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Some patchy blowing snow is possible where snow has fallen both today and on Friday. Although chances for snow will be ending this evening, cold temperatures along with the continued breezy winds will make for a cold night. This transition will allow for the Winter Weather Advisory to expire on time. Low temperatures will fall to the negative single digits but with the breezy winds in place, very cold wind chills are expected down to -15F to -30F. The coldest wind chills will reside across southwest Minnesota and adjacent areas of southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Have expanded the Cold Weather Advisory to include Kingsbury, Moody, and Lake counties in South Dakota.

With cold wind chills lasting through Monday morning, have kept the end time the same with the Advisory expiring at 10 am Monday morning. Monday will be a cold day with highs only warming to the single digits and teens. A few locations across south central South Dakota could see highs barely touch 20F. With a surface high pushing through the Northern Plains, winds will remain elevated through the night as low temperatures fall to either side of 0F overnight. Wind chills will again be cold overnight though not as cold as Sunday night with values down to near 0F to -15F.

Temperatures rebound closer to seasonable for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday with highs in the teens, 20s, and low 30s. Low temperatures will fall to the positive and negative single digits and positive teens. Medium range guidance is in decent agreement in two shortwaves passing through the upper level flow on Tuesday and Wednesday. The ensembles support some snow with these waves as they all show moderate to high (50-90% chances) for QPF values to exceed a mere hundredth of an inch. Probabilities for exceeding a tenth of an inch quickly diminish to a 20% chance or less. Thus, only light snowfall is expected at this time with snowfall amounts generally below an inch.

Another cool down looks to be on the table for the end of the week as another cold front passes through the Northern Plains Thursday night. This will begin an extended period of colder temperatures with highs on Friday and through the weekend only warming to the single digits and teens. Low temperatures will fall to the negative single digits and teens overnight. These temperatures are supported by the ensembles as they show a 70-100% chance for temperatures to fall below 10F and a 40-80% chance for temperatures to fall below 0F. Winds do not look that strong for this period of time but with such cold temperatures in place, cold wind chills are possible. The ensembles support this as they show a 40-90% chance for apparent temperatures falling below -20F. Additional chances for snow are possible though details are uncertain of now.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Myriad of conditions around the region with quick moving snow showers through the evening hours, leading to rapidly changing conditions. Have seen visibility go from VFR to LIFR to VFR in the span of 15 minutes or less. Patchy MVFR/IFR stratus continues through the late evening as well. Snow showers diminish through the late evening. Can't rule out some SCT MVFR stratus through late Monday morning, but should see a return to VFR conditions otherwise.

Northwesterly winds prevail through the period. Strongest gusts of 35-45 knots continue early this evening, tapering down through the overnight hours. Gusts around 20 knots return Monday afternoon and into the evening.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for SDZ038>040-050-052>071. Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Monday for SDZ039-040-055-056. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ071- 072-080-081-089-090-097-098. Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Monday for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Monday for IAZ002-003-013-014-022. NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for NEZ013- 014.