textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- A few sprinkles and/or flurries will be possible through the early afternoon.

- Mild temperatures will persist across the area over the next several day with most sites sitting between 10-20 degrees above normal. The warmest conditions will likely occur by Monday with moderate to high probabilities (40%-80%) of highs in the 60s along the Missouri River Valley.

- With well above normal temperatures ahead, a few new record highs could be set or tied by Monday across the area.

- While mostly quiet conditions are expected into the new week, a pattern shift during the early week could lead to light precipitation chances (20%-30%) returning between Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

TODAY & TONIGHT: A cool and breezy day ahead! Taking a look across the area, mostly clear conditions will give way to a return of lower clouds (stratus) to start the day behind a southwards advancing cold front. Elevated northerly to northwesterly winds will gradually decrease into the day with wind gusts between 25-35 mph expected. From here, can't rule out a few sprinkles to light flurries through late morning mainly along the James River Valley as a little instability develops in the advancing stratus layer. However, any accumulations would be limited at best given the lack of saturation according to soundings. Looking ahead, an influx of cold air advection (CAA) along with breezy northerly surface winds will keep conditions on the chillier side as temperatures take on mostly a decreasing trend through the day. This will result in highs mainly in the 30s to low 40s. Otherwise, any linger stratus will begin to erode by early afternoon as a secondary cold front swings through. Lastly, the continued influx of colder air will lead to much cooler temperatures overnight with temperatures gradually decreasing into the lower teens to mid 20s.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Looking into the rest of the weekend, an active pattern will continue aloft into Saturday as another shortwave progresses through the region. While some virga will be possible as cloud cover increases, not expecting any accumulating precipitation given the mostly dry sounding profiles. From here, temperatures will take on another warming trend as a surface warm front accompanies the previously mentioned wave. This combined with increasing southerly surface winds will help temperatures rebound nicely with highs varying from the mid 30s to the mid 50s with the mildest conditions west of the James River Valley. As surface winds become more westerly into Sunday, we'll see further increases in our temperatures with highs mainly in the 40s to upper 50s. Lastly, locally high fire danger is expected by Saturday mainly due to the breezier conditions (25-35 MPH gusts). With this in mind, make sure to limit any activities that could create a spark as a fire could spread quickly!

NEXT WEEK: Heading into the extended period, quasi-zonal flow will return aloft by Monday as upper-level ridging begins to flatten. Much warmer conditions are expected overall as southwesterly surface winds and lingering mid-level warm air advection (WAA) help boost highs further into the 50s to mid 60s for the day. With the NBM probabilities continuing to show moderate to high probabilities (40%-80%) in exceeding the 58 degree mark, we could very well see a few new record highs at Sioux Falls (58|1977), Sioux City (62|1954), and Mitchell (58|1977). From here, an active pattern will continue through Thursday as multiple wave passing through the region with their associated surface boundaries. While we continue to carry smaller POPs (<30%) through Thursday, its hard to put much stock in them given the limited agreement among guidance and the drier profiles in soundings. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend above normal although slightly cooler with daily highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1148 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

A stratus deck continues to drift slowly southward this afternoon, but has also largely eroded for areas along and east of I-29 so far today. We'll continue to see this deck erode around its edges through the rest of today, but will likely still linger into this evening for parts of Highway-14 corridor including KHON. Some guidance hints at this stratus deck expanding southward a bit overnight, clipping KFSD. However, confidence is low on this potential so kept KFSD VFR through the night. Otherwise the last of the stratus will fade by daybreak and we'll be left with scattered to broken high clouds through the morning hours tomorrow.

North/northwesterly winds will continue to diminish through the rest of the afternoon, with winds mainly light and variable through the rest of tonight. The only exception will be for areas of south- central and central South Dakota where southeasterly winds will start increasing after midnight, with these higher wind gusts spreading eastward into tomorrow morning. Look for gusts to peak around 25-30 kts across the area to end the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.