textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Blizzard conditions continue across the area this afternoon, though on a declining trend from west to east. Locations west of I- 29 will see Blizzard conditions come to an end by 7 pm this evening before transitioning to a Winter Weather Advisory. This Advisory is in effect from 7 pm to 1 am.

- Strong winds persist through this afternoon with gusts up to 35-55 mph with with isolated higher gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds remain expected south of I-90 where a High Wind Warning remains in effect.

- With breezy winds persisting through Sunday night, wind chills down to -20F to -30F are expected. Thus, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the vast majority of locations along and east of I- 29. The Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 am to 11 am Monday morning.

- Dry conditions and a warming trend is expected for the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The Blizzard persists this afternoon as winds have strengthened up to 35-55 mph, with isolated higher gusts up to 60 mph. Snow continues to end from northwest to southeast through the rest of the daylight hours. With the winds in place, blowing and drifting snow is expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours even though winds will be slowly waning through the evening and overnight timeframe. There remains the possibility of a few weak snow showers behind the main area of snow as lapse rates steepen a bit more. Though the low levels will be drying out so it will be a short window for this snow shower possibility. Locally lowered visibility would be expected in these showers. With locations generally west of I-29 seeing conditions beginning to improve, have decided to expire the Blizzard Warning early at 7 pm this evening for most locations west of I-29. However, did issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this are due to continued blowing and drifting snow concerns. This Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 pm to 1 am. Temperatures will be falling through the evening and overnight hours with low temperatures bottoming out in the positive and negative single digits. With continued breezy winds in place, wind chills will fall to the -20F to -30F range, with the coldest wind chills coming across southwest Minnesota and adjacent portions of southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Thus a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for this area and is in effect from 1 am to 11 am Monday morning.

Monday is expected to be a cold day across the area as surface ridging begins to slide through the Northern Plains. With a steeper pressure gradient in place, generally near and east of I-29, winds will be strongest in this area though on a declining trend. With a cold high in place, high temperatures are only expected to reach from the upper single digits to the low 20s, coldest across southwest Minnesota where the deepest snow pack is. Despite the weakening winds, wind chills will remain in the positive and negative teens across the area.

Upper level ridging begins to build across the southwestern CONUS on Tuesday. A weak shortwave trough within downwind side of the upper level ridge will result in warm air advection (WAA) strengthening aloft. This WAA also looks to bring a chance of precipitation with it. With the WAA increasing temperatures at the surface and aloft, precipitation looks to be mixed. It looks to begin as mainly snow and translate from northwest to southeast. There could be an small mixed precipitation zone where sleet and some freezing rain may be possible. After this small transition zone, precipitation will turn to all rain. Some uncertainty in the locations and precipitation types but the ensembles show a broad 20-60% chance for locations along and northeast of a Huron, South Dakota to Sioux Falls, South Dakota, to Storm Lake, Iowa line to exceed one inch of snow.

Upper level ridging will continue to build over the western CONUS for the middle and end of the week. This will result in a northwest flow regime over the Northern Plains. Thus, dry and warm conditions are expected. High temperatures look to near seasonable to warm well above average with highs 40s, 50s, 60s, and even into the 70s. The warmest temperatures look to come on Friday and Saturday at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Snow continues to push southeastwards through the area early this afternoon. Ceilings and visibilities remain quite varied as they both span all flight categories. Ceilings and visibilities are lowest in falling snow with ceilings and visibilities down to MVFR/IFR/LIFR levels. These ceilings and visibilities are primarily located under a band of snow currently stretching from KMJQ down to KSUX. Locations further to the west across central South Dakota are beginning to see improvements to ceilings and visibilities. Though blowing and drifting snow is still resulting in intermittent reduced ceilings and visibilities down to MVFR/IFR thresholds. Snow is expected to exit the area by the evening time frame. However, reduced visibilities and potentially ceilings is expected through the night due to persisting gusty winds blowing around the freshly fallen snow. Winds will be weakening through the rest of the TAF period while remaining out of the northwest.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ062-066>071. High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ067-070-071. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Monday for SDZ040- 056-071. Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for SDZ040-056. Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038-039- 050-052>055-057>061-063>065. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Monday for SDZ038-039-050-052>055-057>061-063>065. High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ050-063- 068-069. MN...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for MNZ098. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Monday for MNZ071- 072-080-081-089-090-097-098. Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for MNZ071-072-080-081- 089-090-097. IA...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for IAZ001-012-020-031. High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for IAZ001>003-012>014- 020>022-031-032. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Monday for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ002-003-013-014- 021-022-032. NE...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ013-014. High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ013-014. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Monday for NEZ013- 014.