textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- QUIET AND MILD: Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday with highs in the upper 40s, 50s and 60s.

- MINIMAL RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND: Besides a few sprinkles north of I- 90 late this evening and night, most areas should remain dry into the weekend.

- COLDER AIR AHEAD: A strong front drops temperatures significantly Thursday and Friday to near normal. Temperatures will gradually warm back to near to above normal by the end of next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A shortwave trough continues to push into the Northern Plains this afternoon. No rain is associated with the wave at this time but it is bringing thicker, high level cirrus with it. This cirrus has kept temperatures on track with highs maxing out in the 50s and 60s. As the wave pushes through the forecast area tonight, thermal profiles will cool to saturation in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). However, thermal profiles below the DGZ look to be dry. Thus, little if any rain will reach the surface. If it does, it will be no more than some sprinkles. A cold front will push through the area tonight due to it being tied to the wave. The cloud cover and elevated winds behind the front will keep low temperatures on the warm side with lows only falling to the upper 30s and low 40s.

Temperatures will remain cooler than what we have seen from the weekend and Monday with highs falling to the upper 40s and 50s on Wednesday. A second cold front and associated push of cold air advection (CAA) will push through the area on Wednesday, resulting in temperatures falling to near normal for the rest of the work week. Lows will bottom out in the 20s to low 30s with highs only reaching into the 40s. Winds will be light on Thursday as surface high pressure pushes through the area. But breezy winds look to return to the area along and west of the James River on Friday. This area looks to see wind chills below 40F for the day.

Temperatures look to moderate to near to slightly above normal for the weekend as upper level ridging pushes eastwards. Highs will remain in the 40s to low 50s with lows falling to the 30s. Saturday will be dry but a shortwave trough will push through the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Some wrap around moisture is possible from this system as is somewhat supported by the ensembles. They show a close to zero probability for rain totals to exceed a tenth of an inch. The GFS ensemble is the outlier as it shows the highest probabilities up to about a 40% chance for exceeding the same amount of QPF. If any rain does make it to the forecast area, it looks to be very light at this time.

Temperature trends look to persist into early next week. Medium range guidance continues to vary regarding how the upper level pattern will evolve through early next week. Broad troughing along the western CONUS could push eastwards and bring chances for rain back to the area. Too uncertain to make any changes to the forecast but something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. High level cirrus continues to push through the area this afternoon. Winds remain out of the south/southeast at about 5 knots. Winds will persist out of this direction until this evening as a front pushes through the area. Winds will turn to out of the northwest behind the front. At the same time, some sprinkles are possible north of I-90 tonight. The highest chances will come along and north of highway-14, though these chances are quite low at a no more than a 10% chance. Thus, have left any chance of light rain out of all TAFs. Sioux City will see low level wind shear (LLWS) tonight before the LLWS wanes early tomorrow morning. Some lower ceilings, potentially down to MVFR levels, is possible tomorrow morning. With only a 30-40% chance at this time, have again left out any mention of low ceilings in all TAFs. Will monitor trends through the rest of the day in this potential.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.