textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog will continue through mid-morning mainly across central and southcentral SD. Be prepared for rapid changes in visibility.

- Cooler conditions will continue through today then more seasonable temperatures return over the weekend into next week with limited precipitation chances.

- Widespread fog could return tonight. Locally dense patches could lead to visibilities less than one mile.

UPDATE

Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Taking a look across the area, a chilly start persists as low hanging stratus continues to spread across central and eastern SD this morning. With the thicker cloud deck in place , our temperatures have been slower to decrease with most areas sitting in the mid to upper 30s under the stratus and low 30s outside of it. While the current thinking is this could hang around for most of the morning, should see a few breaks develop into the afternoon with a few peaks of sunshine possible. Otherwise, patchy fog across west-central SoDAK should either dissipate as additional stratus moves overhead or diurnal heating returns during the morning hours. Looking at the rest of the day, more cool and quiet conditions are ahead as highs peak in the low to upper 40s. Unlike yesterday, lighter surface winds will likely continue. Lastly, another cool night is head with highs mainly in the low to mid 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Low stratus continues to flow in from the north, obscuring skies. While there is considerable dry and subsiding air aloft, a shallow layer of moisture exists between 925-850 mb. Soundings indicate this layer of moisture will persist through tonight and much of Friday. Weak instability in this layer may also allow for some light sprinkles to drizzle. No accumulation is expected. Stratus will limit the area previously expected to see a hard freeze tonight (28 deg F or less). After coordinating with neighbors, have boosted overnight lows with a blend of NBM and RAP13. Overnight lows now range from 29 to 33, warmest over northwest Iowa. Should any area dip into 28 degrees or less it will most likely occur along and north of Highway 14 in eastern South Dakota. Breezy northerly winds will continue to decrease the remainder of this afternoon, becoming light and variable over night. Areas of low stratus/fog may briefly reduce visibility to 1 mile or less. Confidence in fog formation is low with the REFS indicating a less than 25% probability. Any fog should burn off by mid-Friday morning.

By Friday afternoon weak upper ridging and a surface high pressure push in from the west. This will finally begin to break up the clouds late Friday afternoon as slightly stronger southerly winds work into the low levels. While we will likely see peaks of sunshine, it will probably not be enough to boost our high temperatures. Most areas will see low to mid 40s, while south central South Dakota may just squeak into the low 50s. By Friday evening the surface high will be centered over Iowa and weak low level moisture return will flow in from the south. At the same time a shortwave and WAA will pass through the region. With little instability or shear to speak of the most likely result is another round of low stratus. This will once again work to limit overnight lows to the low to mid 30s. Light and variable winds with surface conditions near saturation may allow for the stratus to lower and/or fog to develop. As flow aloft becomes northwesterly clouds and fog will scour out by late Saturday morning.

Dry, mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and WAA will follow for the rest of Saturday with highs climbing into the mid 50s to low 60s over south central South Dakota. Similar conditions for Sunday and Monday will see highs climb into upper 50s to mid 60s both days. Monday afternoon a dry upper wave and cold front will pass through the region. Winds will become northerly and temperatures will cool into the 50s for Tuesday. Similar conditions continue into the latter half of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions with occasional VFR to IFR cigs persist this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, areas of stratus continue to sit over us this morning. While we should see these ceilings gradually raise into the afternoon, most guidance suggest we keep some type of lower ceiling into Saturday as low level saturation continues. Otherwise, light and variable winds will become more southerly by this afternoon. Lastly, high resolution guidance shows a strong signal for widespread fog tonight so TEMPO'd some in for each TAF site through the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.