textproduct: Sioux Falls

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy skies Thursday morning will become partly to mostly sunny by the afternoon.

- Seasonably cooler temperatures are expected Thursday through the weekend, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and overnight lows in the 20s.

- Dry conditions are expected into early next week.

- Temperatures will trend back to the 50s for the first half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 810 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening with mid-level stratocumulus flowing in from the north. A shallow layer of moisture between 950 and 850 mb coupled with weak upward directed omega will keep scattered to broken clouds in the forecast from roughly midnight through daybreak Thursday. Clouds will then scatter out through the day as an upper ridge settles over the northern Plains, and subsidence and warming aloft erodes the clouds from above. By the afternoon skies should be partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Between the clouds and light northerly winds ushering in colder air Thursday's highs will be on the cool side of average for this time of year (mid 40s). Highs will also depend on how quickly the skies clear. The current forecasted highs range from the upper 30s over southwest Minnesota to the mid 40s along the Missouri River into northwest Iowa. More clouds could result in temperatures that struggle to break 40. Overnight mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light and variable winds will allow our lows to fall to the upper teens to mid 20s.

Dry and seasonably cool weather continues for Friday and the weekend. A slight warming trend begins Monday and continues into the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

An elongated lobe of vorticity continues to push through the Northern Plains aloft, keeping the chance (~10%) for sprinkles going for the rest of the afternoon. No break in the chance for sprinkles through the evening and into the overnight hours as the low levels remain saturated, especially as more widespread low level stratus pushes into the area. Perhaps a few flurries are possible with the sprinkles as temperatures cool to near to just below freezing at the surface tonight.

Thursday will be the first noticeably cooler day with the post frontal airmass in place. Should see highs warm to the low 40s to low to mid 30s, if the low level stratus breaks up enough to allow for sufficient diurnal heating. If cloud cover prevails, highs could remain in the 30s. Surface ridging will be sliding into the area as well, keeping winds light, though just barely strong enough to result in wind chills down in the 30s to potentially upper 20s in a few locations during the daylight hours. Some sprinkles also remain possible beneath the stratus as well. With the ridge parked over the area, low temperatures look to fall to the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this season, with lows falling to the low to mid 20s. Some locations could see lows fall into the upper teens. With very light to nearly calm winds in place, little if any wind chill will be felt. Could see lows fall further but there remains uncertainty regarding cloud cover.

Friday will be another cooler day with near to below seasonable highs in the 30s and 40s. Breezy winds look to return to locations along and west of the James River as the previously mentioned surface ridge begins to slide eastwards, tightening low level pressure gradients. Low temperatures will remain in the 20s Friday night, but should be a little bit warmer than Thursday night's lows as winds turn to out of the southeast and remain elevated through the night.

Upper level ridging remains on track to push eastwards into the Plains for the weekend. This will begin a small warming trend with highs warming back into the 40s across the area. Temperatures will continue to warm through early next week with highs in the 40s and 50s for Monday and Tuesday. No rain is expected for any of these days.

Medium range guidance continues to show some variance regarding the upper level pattern for the middle of next week. There is some consensus that broad troughing from the western CONUS will push eastwards for this period of time. The ensembles not only support this troughing, but they show increased probabilities for light rain, up to a 20-50% chance for rainfall totals to exceed a hundredth of an inch. Their probabilities lower for rainfall amounts exceeding a tenth of an inch. Could still see these chances for rain persist into the end of next week, but details remain uncertain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1059 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions for the first few hours this period. Moisture in the 950-850 mb layer will push south resulting in scattered to broken stratus through mid-Thursday morning. There may be brief periods where ceilings dip down to MVFR and possibly IFR as subsidence aloft pushes the clouds down through the overnight. A few very light scattered sprinkles to flurries may also be possible, but confidence on timing and location were too low (10% or less) to include in any of the TAFs. No impacts are expected. Any sprinkles/flurries will cease after sunrise. Clouds begins to lift after daybreak and will become scattered to few through the end of the period.

Northerly winds will become light between 5-10 kts. Winds will remain northerly and light through the end of the period.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.