textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend. Temperatures continue to climb into next week, along with gradually returning chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Today and Sunday

Near normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions remain over the remainder of the holiday weekend. A few isolated showers and potentially a thunderstorm will be possible over the White Mountains this afternoon, however any activity will be minimal. Moisture continues to increase into Sunday as high pressure begins to build over New Mexico and become amplified by a cut-off low off of California. As a result, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase on Sunday, mainly over the higher terrain. With PWATs still only around 0.50-0.80", coverage should remain fairly isolated and the threat for flash flooding minimal.

Monday through Friday...Guidance continues to favor a strong area of high pressure (596-598 dam) building over Arizona by the middle of next week. While moisture does look to still be in place to some degree, the resulting subsidence inversion from the ridge will act to suppress any real chances for storm activity. Nevertheless, daily chances remain each afternoon, but remain slim and largely confined to the higher terrain.

Hot temperatures look to be the main story for the middle of next week with the anomalously high heights. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s F to lower 90s F can be expected across the higher terrain, with the lower deserts in the 100s F to near 115F in the warmest locations. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for the Lower Elevations of the Grand Canyon, with additional headlines potentially needed for the lower elevations of Yavapai County by Wednesday.

AVIATION...Saturday 05/18Z through Sunday 06/18Z

VFR conditions forecast through the period. Slight chance for -SHRA/-TSRA between 18Z-00Z along and south of a KPAN-KSJN line. Look for SW winds 5-15 kts, gusting near 20 kts between 18Z-03Z. Gusty/erratic winds possible near showers. Light and variable return overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 06/18Z through Tuesday 08/18Z...VFR conditions forecast through the period. Daily chances for -SHRA/-TSRA along and south of a KGCN-KSJN line between 18Z-03Z. Outside of gusty/erratic storm driven winds, expect SW winds 10-20 kts gusting near 25 kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Monday

A warming trend will continue through the next several day, along with mostly dry conditions. Minimum afternoon RH values forecast to be 10-20%. 20- 40% chance of high base showers/thunderstorms each afternoon, primarily across the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Afternoon winds look to be out of the west-southwest 10-20 mph. Gusty/erratic winds possible near showers/storms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Hot and mostly dry conditions will continue. 15-35% chance of showers near the White Mountains each afternoon. Look for minimum RH values between 8-20%. West-northwest winds 5-15 mph on Tuesday, becoming more westerly 10-20 mph on Wednesday and Thursday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for AZZ006.