textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

An area of low pressure remains over the West Coast, keeping dry conditions and breezy winds in place. High pressure will move in from the southeast over the weekend, and moisture will slowly begin to funnel into the state. Precipitation chances are minimal at this time, and mostly focused over the White Mountains into next week.

DISCUSSION

Low pressure over the northwest US and a building high to our southeast will keep breezy southwest winds in the forecast the rest of today and again Friday afternoon. Gusts in the 20-30 mph range are expected. Daytime temperatures remain below normal today but will start a gradual increase by Friday. For late Friday night into Sunday - forecast models have trended toward increasing mid-level moisture moving in from the southwest. This will mainly result in increased clouds, but some virga/sprinkles can't be ruled out Saturday and even an isolated thunderstorm by Sunday afternoon. This activity looks high-based if it develops, meaning gusty and erratic winds but little in the way of rainfall.

Monday through Wednesday - strengthening high pressure is forecast to be centered to our south or southeast. This will allow temperatures to climb each day, reaching around 5 degrees above normal by mid week. This setup is not as favorable for significant moisture to return to our region compared to forecasts from a day or two ago. Daily storm chances are mostly 5-15% over the higher terrain, with higher chances of 20-50% near the White Mountains. Much of this still looks high-based with gusty/erratic winds and new lightning fire starts the main threats. Rainfall amounts are forecast to remain light with this activity.

AVIATION...Friday 03/00Z through Saturday 04/00Z

VFR conditions, outside of occasional MVFR CIGS/VIS in HZ/FU near KFLG/KSEZ. FU will impact KFLG all day, while KSEZ is most likely during the overnight and early morning hours. Winds light and VRB, becoming S/SW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/00Z through Monday 06/00Z...VFR conditions, outside of occasional MVFR CIGS/VIS in HZ/FU near KFLG/KSEZ. Winds S/SW 5-15 kts each day, becoming light and VRB overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Dry and breezy conditions will continue. Look for southwest winds 10-20 mph gusting near 25-30 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH values will generally be 10% or less, and daytime highs will increase each day. Increased cloud cover is expected by Saturday, with a slight chance (<10%) of some virga or a sprinkle over the higher terrain.

Sunday through Tuesday...Near normal temperatures will move in for the weekend/early next week. Look for southwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each afternoon. Moisture will slowly creep in from the south each day, bringing minimum RH values up to 15-20%. Chance for afternoon showers or thunderstorms across the White Mountains region, with only slight chances elsewhere. Storms will produce erratic/gusty winds but little rainfall.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.