textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will move across the region through tonight, bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and chances for light rain and snow showers through Friday across far northern Arizona. Warmer temperatures return over the weekend before another system moves in early next week.

DISCUSSION...Through Friday

A trough continues to move through Idaho/Utah with its attendant cold front pushing through Arizona this afternoon. As the front moves to the east, gusty westerly winds will continue into this evening. The Wind Advisory looks well placed and will expire at 7 PM, though a few gusts may continue across far eastern Arizona before tapering off tonight. Cooler air accompanies the front which will actually bring high temperatures to around 5-10 degrees below normal for Friday. While the boundary is relatively moisture starved, there continue to be some light showers moving along and just behind the front. Most areas will remain dry with some light rain/snow showers mainly across far northern Arizona through tonight, pushing off towards the Four Corners overnight. Not expecting much in the way of accumulation but a light dusting to around half of an inch is possible across the higher terrain. The trough takes its time pushing to the east and doesn't clear the state until Friday morning. Some lagging shortwave energy rotating through the flow will keep chances for some light showers through Friday, mainly across the Kaibab Plateau eastward through Four Corners, with some slight chances of mainly flurries as far south as Flagstaff.

Saturday and Sunday...A closed low looks to develop over southwestern Az/Baja California and pushing to the southwest over the weekend. We should remain dry in the gusty easterly flow and temperatures will warm back to near normal.

Monday through Wednesday...The closed low will track back to the north and east. Temperatures will warm appreciably in the southerly flow and should warm to around 5-10 degrees above normal once again. The track of the low should allow for decent moisture advection to occur across the region and precipitation chances will increase on Monday and continue into Tuesday, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Expect any precipitation to remain mostly rain in the warmer flow with snow on the highest peaks. Snow levels look to remain around 8500 feet and above. Once the low clears out on Tuesday, we expect to dry out for Wednesday as a ridge builds in from the west.

AVIATION...Friday 06/00Z through Saturday 07/00Z

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Brief -SHRA/-SHSN possible near the AZ/UT border, along with virga showers as far south as KFLG. Otherwise, dry conditions expected. Gusty SW through NW winds forecast through at least 04Z, becoming W-NW 5-15 kts overnight and through much of Friday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 07/00Z through Monday 09/00Z...VFR conditions forecast through the period. -SHRA possible over the White Mountains by 18Z Sunday, otherwise dry conditions expected. Look for N-NE winds 5-15 kts Saturday morning, becoming E-NE 10-20 kts by Saturday afternoon. Elevated NE winds downwind of higher terrain likely Saturday night/Sunday morning, becoming lighter by 18Z Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Cooler with temperatures close to average. Slight chance for light snow showers over the Kaibab Plateau on Friday, dry everywhere Saturday. Winds W-NW 5-15 mph on Friday, N-NE 10-20 mph on Saturday. Min RH values 15-35% Friday, 10-30% Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Turning warmer with high temperatures again reaching 5-10 degrees above average. Mainly dry conditions Sunday with the exception of the White Mountains which could see a couple isolated rain or snow showers. A chance of rain and snow showers moves northward Sunday night and Monday, lasting into Tuesday but precipitation chances are expected to remain south of Interstate 40. Winds NE 5-15 mph on Sunday, SW 5-15 mph on Monday, W-NW 10-20 mph on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ012>014-016-017- 039-040.