textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and breezy conditions are forecast through Friday. Saturday and Sunday will see breezy and cooler weather with a slight chance of showers as weak weather disturbance brushes Arizona.

DISCUSSION

A shortwave trough located over Arizona today will head to the east of our area tonight. Look for southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-45 mph to continue into the early evening before diminishing overnight(the higher values in the ranges will mainly be observed from the Mogollon Rim northward). As a result, a Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning will remain in effect into the early evening hours. For the remainder of the night, pressure gradients will remain strong enough for gusty west to southwest winds from the Mogollon Rim northward where we're look at wind speeds of 10-20 mph gusting to around 25 mph.

For Thursday and Friday...The current trough will head eastward. As a result, winds will shift to more southwest to west direction becoming lighter at 10-20 mph gusting to around 25 mph most areas. Look for mainly sunny skies on Thursday but some additional cloudiness will move in on Friday with a weak passing disturbance. Little change in high and low temperatures.

From Saturday onward...Models continue to show a series of weak shortwave troughs moving across the southwest United States. Near to below seasonal average temperatures appear on track as a cooler air mass is expected to move in. The best chances for showers appears to be Saturday and Sunday but with such weak features this is apt to change. In any case, breezy daytime winds each day.

AVIATION...Wednesday 22/18Z through Thursday 23/18Z

VFR conditions. Winds SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts through 03Z, then subsiding to 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/18Z through Saturday 25/18Z...VFR conditions with W/SW 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts each day.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures. Winds west/southwest 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 10-20%.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly dry conditions, outside of a slight chance for high-based showers late Saturday and Sunday. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph over the weekend, subsiding to 10-20 mph on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-30% for the weekend, falling to 10-20% on Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ109>114-139-140.