textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions to continue through much of the coming week. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms develop for Wednesday and Thursday, mainly over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Then, unsettled and cooler conditions may develop over the coming weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure remains the dominant driver for our weather through Friday, despite being shunted a bit southwestward. The movement of the ridge is due to a weak s/wv currently sitting over northern Nevada. This wave moves into southern Utah today and then down the Arizona/New Mexico border Wednesday and Thursday.

Persistent easterly through southeasterly winds the last several days have allowed the Monsoonal moisture pool to move back northwest into Arizona. This moisture, combined with minor cooling aloft, may allow isolated cells to develop over the next few days, but mainly on Wednesday. We are not expected any impactful weather from these showers/thunderstorms.

The ridge begins to break down quickly over the weekend, with southwesterly winds developing. A major trough looks to form over the interior Pacific Northwest during this time frame and then dive southward into early next week.

Once this is established, there exists the potential to bring significant amounts of tropical moisture northward into Arizona. Perhaps even most of the remnants of Hurricane Rachel, as well as another tropical circulation just outside of this forecast period. Confidence is growing quickly for this solution, as most models have now converged upon it. This may be a major event for Arizona, but it is a little early to blow the whistle. Pay attention to the evolving forecast over the next few days.

AVIATION...Tuesday 06/12Z through Wednesday 07/12Z

Expect VFR conditions. ISOLD or single cell -SHRA/-TSRA possible this afternoon near the Utah border. Sfc winds are not anticipated to affect flight operations.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 07/12Z through Friday 09/12Z...Expect VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible each afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Sfc winds are not anticipated to affect flight operations.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Expect mainly dry conditions and continued seasonably warm temperatures. A slight chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms remains possible for Wednesday afternoon, but primarily for the eastern zones. Chances for wetting rains are near zero. Daytime winds generally light and variable, trending easterly over higher terrain in the afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Slight chances for high-based showers and thunderstorms remain possible Thursday afternoon, but primarily for southern Apache County. Dry and warm conditions Friday give way to shower and thunderstorms chances for Saturday. The chances for wetting rain remains low on Thursday, but increases on Saturday as tropical moisture is drawn into the district. Expect generally light and variable winds through Friday, then southerly 10 to 20 mph on Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.