textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures and scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through much of this week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure will sit over the Four Corners over the next few days. This puts Arizona in a favorable spot for increased moisture flow into the area which will lead to more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. With PWAT's hitting 1.0-1.5", storms will be able to put down more rain and as the soil saturates throughout the week, flash flooding will definitely be a concern. With the higher moisture and likely increased cloud cover, high temperatures will also drop below average for the first time in awhile.

Moisture and POPs are expected to peak around Thursday. By Friday a weak West Coast trough begins to move into the area which will push our high pressure center to the east, as well as introduce some drier air across the region. By Saturday storm chances will be confined mainly over the White Mountain region and the very highest terrain. High temperatures will begin to recover back to mid August averages by Saturday or Sunday.

AVIATION...Tuesday 11/06Z through Wednesday 12/06Z

SCT SHRA/TSRA expected through 10Z, mainly south and west of a KSEZ-KPAN line. Another round of SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA expected after 19Z, mainly near and north of a KGCN-KSEZ-KJTC line. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess of 40 kts possible in and around +TS. Otherwise, VRB conditions with light and VRB winds overnight, becoming SW/W 5-15 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/06Z through Friday 14/06Z...SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA each day from 19Z-03Z, most likely over the higher terrain. Some SHRA may linger into the overnight periods. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess of 40 kts possible in and around +TS. Otherwise, daytime winds W/SW 5-15 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Daily max temps will be near north to slightly above normal Tuesday, falling to below normal Wednesday, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Stronger storms may contain heavy rain, hail, and gusty/erratic winds. Outside of storms, expect variable winds around 5-15 mph Tuesday, becoming west to southwest Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Below normal temperatures with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms Through at least Friday. Potential for drying trend starting Saturday. Outside of storms, expect west to southwest winds around 5-15 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.