textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story for the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

High pressure continues to dominate the west coast, allowing daytime highs to land 5-15 degrees above normal and dry conditions to persist. Although the position of the high will wobble around throughout the forecast period, Arizona will remain under its power through at least the next 7 to 8 days. We'll also continue to see gusty northeast winds overnight along and downwind of higher terrain, especially along the Mogollon Rim and Bradshaw Mountains. Wind gusts could reach 25 to 35 mph. Beyond our forecast period, model guidance is vaguely hinting at a shift in our synoptic pattern, but solutions are all over the place. For now, the only thing worth saying is a potential pattern shift could return at the end of next week, but confidence is low at this time.

AVIATION...Tuesday 13/06Z through Wednesday 14/06Z

Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds ENE10-20g25kts, primarily just along and/or SW of the Kaibab Plateau/Mogollon Rim/White Mountain crest, as well as downwind of the Black Hills and the Bradshaw Mountains. Winds mainly in the daytime, but will continue locally overnight, including terminal KSEZ.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 14/06Z through Friday 16/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds ENE10-20g25kts, primarily just along and/or SW of the Kaibab Plateau/Mogollon Rim/White Mountain crest, as well as downwind of the Black Hills and the Bradshaw Mountains. Winds mainly in the daytime, but will continue locally overnight, including terminal KSEZ.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday

Dry and warmer. Winds generally north to northeast at 5-15 mph with localized gusts around 20 mph. Higher winds possible along the edge and downslope of the Mogollon Rim. Afternoon minimum RH ranging from 20% lower deserts to 40% in the mountains. Thursday through Saturday...Dry with temperatures 5-15 degrees above average. Winds north to northeast at 5-15 mph with localized gusts of 20 mph. Afternoon minimum RH ranging from 20-40% Thursday, 15-30% on Friday, 15-25% Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.