textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry, breezy, and cooler conditions expected through the end of the week. Gusty southwest winds each day with the strongest winds today when a Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning are in effect. Unsettled weather returns for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A strong Pacific low is making its way into the Pacific northwest early this morning. With the weak ridge pushing further to the east, we find ourselves getting squeezed between the two systems, resulting in strengthening southwesterly winds across Arizona. As the trough axis of the low moves across our area, we will see winds become very gusty, especially along and northeast of the Mogollon Rim, where winds will be around 20-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Some localized gusts to 60 mph are possible through this afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the forecast area for today due to these strong winds. Additionally, conditions are very dry, especially across northeastern Arizona, which raises fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Navajo Nation and the Little Colorado River Valley for today.

The low will continue its eastward push into the northern Rockies by later today. The flow turns more zonal, westerly, across Arizona for Thursday and Friday. The gradient will remain tight through Wednesday night with some areas seeing gusts continue overnight. Even though the gradient looks to weaken on Thursday, it will still remain breezy with westerly winds 10-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph. Expect similar winds to continue on Friday. A weak shortwave will pass through on Friday but all that will bring for us is some additional cloud cover. Temperatures will cool slightly but remain near average across the region.

The weekend looks unsettled as several shortwaves move through the mid-level flow. Moisture begins to increase on Saturday and will do so with subsequent wave that moves through the region. Expect increasing cloudiness with some chances for showers over the weekend and into next week. Temperatures will cool and remain near to below average and we will see those afternoon breezes continue.

AVIATION...Wednesday 22/12Z through Thursday 23/12Z

VFR conditions. S-SW winds 5-15 kts, increasing to SW 15-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts after 15Z. Winds decrease to 5-15 kts after 03Z, with locally gusty winds downwind of the terrain overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/12Z through Saturday 25/12Z...VFR conditions. W-SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts each day.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday

Critical fire weather conditions expected across northeastern Arizona today. Dry conditions with slightly cooler temperatures expected. Southwest winds at 15-30 mph with gusts 35-50 mph today, becoming west to southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on Thursday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% each day.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with a chance for high-based showers late Saturday and Sunday. Southwest to west winds at 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% on Friday, increasing to 15-35% over the weekend.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ109>114-139-140.