textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures. Warm temperatures and drier conditions return for next week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure remains settled off to our east with a good southerly fetch bringing moisture into the region. Some light showers continue to push through eastern Arizona early this morning with additional showers and thunderstorms developing through this afternoon. Moisture will be a bit more widespread than on Friday so anticipating scattered showers/storms to develop. QPF amounts range from a trace to 0.50", in more robust storms. While it looks to be a more active day across the state today, the cloud cover this morning may end up limiting overall convective potential so it is something to keep an eye on as we head into the early afternoon. Any breaks in the clouds should help with surface heating and convective initiation. Again, we would ideally like to see some of the cloud cover lessen. Any storms that do develop today will be capable of gusty outflow winds and hail, along with lightning and heavy rain.

As we head into tonight, the moisture starts to become more diffuse across the area and dry air wins out as it pushes in from the west. We don't dry out super fast so some chances for showers will continue on Sunday with decreasing activity into Monday.

Heading through the middle of next week, we are once again dominated by a building ridge across the Desert Southwest, with dry conditions and hot temperatures returning. Models hint at some moisture sneaking back into the region for the latter half of next week, mainly in the White Mountains region, but the moisture return looks to be short lived.

AVIATION...Saturday 13/12Z through Sunday 14/12Z

Mainly VFR conditions with brief MVFR in SCT -SHRA/-TSRA between 18Z-02Z. Strong, erratic gusts/outflows to 30-35 kts INVOF of TSRA. Outside of storms, expect SW winds 5-15 kts, becoming light and variable after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 14/12Z through Tuesday 16/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions with brief MVFR in ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA on Sunday and ISO -SHRA/-TSRA on Monday. Strong, erratic gusts/outflows INVOF of TSRA. Outside of storms, expect S-SW winds 5-15 kts each day with light and variable winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon with isolated pockets of wetting rain possible. Strong, erratic winds gusting to 30-35 mph are possible near storms. Outside of storms, expect southwest to west winds at 5-15 mph each day.

Monday through Wednesday...Isolated showers or thunderstorms Monday afternoon, mainly along the Mogollon Rim and in the White Mountains. Dry conditions return for Tuesday and Wednesday with minimum RH between 5-15% each afternoon. Expect west to northwest winds around 10-20 mph each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.