textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild temperatures and mainly dry conditions continue into the start of next week, aside from a chance of light showers around the White Mountains this afternoon. Cooler and unsettled weather may develop by the middle and end of next week, along with increasing winds.

DISCUSSION

A closed upper low was located off the Baja spur this afternoon, and will lift slowly northeastward through northern Mexico through Monday. It's too far south for any direct impacts for northern Arizona, though some slightly elevated boundary layer moisture has brought some cumulus development and perhaps a few sprinkles around the White Mountains/eastern Mogollon Rim with daytime heating this afternoon. Otherwise, expect fair weather across our region through Monday, with afternoon high temperatures running 10-15 degrees above average for early February. Winds will be light through Sunday, then increase from the southwest 10-15 mph by Monday.

A large but disorganized trough will be located around the west coast Tuesday through Friday. Several disturbances within this trough will eject eastward into the intermountain west through this period, but these will be hard to time with plenty of spread in the model data on the specifics. The first appears to pass to our north late Tuesday or Wednesday, with the main impact being increasing southwest winds to 15-25 mph. There is also a low chance (15-20%) for some rain or snow showers in the high country but this does not look significant. Forecast guidance is slightly more favorable for some rain and snow showers with the next disturbance due late Thursday into Friday. PoPs for this period are in the 20-50% range, highest on Friday. There is still good support for a stronger trough moving onto the west coast just beyond the 7 day period (starting around Feb 16th), and this one could be more impactful around our area, stay tuned.

AVIATION...Sunday 08/06Z through Monday 09/06Z

VFR conditions are expected. Winds light and variable or terrain driven at 5-15 kts through the period.

OUTLOOK...Monday 09/06Z through Wednesday 11/06Z...VFR conditions are forecast. Winds becoming southwest at 10-20 kts Monday afternoon then strengthening to 15-25 kts Tuesday afternoon. Overnight winds generally light and variable at 5-15 kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Dry and warm conditions are expected. The minimum RH is 15-20% each day. Winds are light and variable on Sunday, becoming southwest 10-20 mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Slight cooling trend through the period. Slight chance of rain and snow showers across the northern higher terrain late Tuesday and Wednesday, then spreading south on Thursday. Winds are southwest 15-30 mph on Tuesday, becoming 15-25 mph on Wednesday, then westerly 10-20 mph on Thursday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.