textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will build in over the area leading to above average temperatures. Some moisture is in the area for a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the highest terrain, but most of the region stays dry.

DISCUSSION

Strong high pressure will build in over the southwest over the next few days. For today and tomorrow some subtropical moisture in the midlevels has made it into the area and will produce some midlevel clouds and potentially a few high based showers or storms over the highest elevations (10-20%). Lower levels of the atmosphere remain very dry so most of what falls out of these clouds will likely evaporate before reaching the ground producing some potentially gusty downburst winds and little to no measurable rain. Dry lightning remains a threat with these storms and with fuels drying out, these lightning strikes could potentially produce some new fire starts.

As the week progresses, temperatures will warm up to about 10 degrees above average and we will likely see the warmest readings of the season so far. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued from Tuesday AM to Saturday PM for areas of the Grand Canyon below 4,000 feet where temperatures at Phantom Ranch and the Colorado River could potentially reach 110 or higher. As for monsoon moisture, it'll be low grade at best with most of the moisture going into New Mexico. Enough may reach far enough west for a few showers/storms over the White Mountains but most of the state looks dry Wednesday through Friday. There are some indications a better moisture feed may reach the region next weekend, but at the moment it still doesn't look that impressive.

AVIATION...Sunday 05/12Z through Monday 06/12Z

Mainly VFR conditions, MVFR possible at KFLG in the afternoon hours and KSEZ during the overnight and early morning hours due to wildfire smoke. Isolated showers/storms possible over higher terrain during the afternoon hours. Winds S-SW 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts daytime. Light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 06/12Z through Wednesday 08/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions, MVFR possible at times at KFLG and KSEZ due to wildfire smoke. Afternoon showers/storms possible over higher terrain. Winds SW-W 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts daytime. Light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday

Temperatures near average today warming up to above average for Monday. A little monsoon moisture in the mid levels leads to a 10-20% of high based showers or thunderstorms over the highest terrain. Wetting rains are not expected. Winds SW 10-20 mph and gusts 20-30 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH values 5-20% today, 10-25% Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures warm to above average. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain in eastern Arizona each afternoon. Winds SW-W 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each day. Minimum RH values between 10-25% Tuesday and Wednesday, 5-20% Thursday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Saturday evening for AZZ006.