textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warm temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and mainly light southwesterly winds are expected through the end of the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday over Navajo and Apache counties. Winds increase over the weekend and continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

A weak upper low is situated over Mexico and will slowly push to the east through Thursday before lifting to the north through New Mexico and Texas on Friday. The return flow around the low will bring some additional moisture into eastern Arizona. This will allow for some showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across southern Apache and Navajo counties through Thursday. While we are not expecting any severe storms, there may be some stronger storms with lightning and gusty outflows.

The rest of the region will continue to remain warm but will stay dry though we may some additional cloud cover as the mid level moisture increases a bit. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal through Friday.

The low becomes centered over Mexico by Friday and then starts to lift northward into NM/TX. This will end the return flow and shift the moisture off to our east, bringing an end to any shower activity across our forecast area, though there is an outside chance of a shower along the AZ/NM border. Overall, expect Friday to be warm and dry with westerly afternoon breezes.

The models have started to key back in on a deepening Pacific trough as we head into the weekend and then into the new week. The position of the trough will be the determining factor in what kind of weather we will receive but current indications are for stronger southwesterly winds and a return to near normal temperatures arriving on Saturday and hanging around through at least the middle of next week. As far a precipitation goes, chances look pretty bleak as the trough doesn't dig far enough south to bring in the necessary moisture. With conditions remaining dry and relative humidities dropping into the single digits across much of the region, add in the increase in wind, and we may start to see some near-critical fire weather conditions return over the weekend.

AVIATION...Wednesday 03/18Z through Thursday 04/18Z

VFR conditions, isolated showers/thunderstorms in the White Mountains and Chuska Mountains this afternoon. Winds SW-W 10-20kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 04/18Z through Saturday 06/18Z...VFR conditions, isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms over the White Mountains Thursday afternoon, no precipitation expected Friday. Winds SW-W 10-20kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Primarily dry, but some showers or thunderstorms are possible over the White Mountains. Wetting rains are not expected. Winds are SW-W 10-20 mph each day. Minimum RH values 7-20% Thursday, 5-15% Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Dry with no precipitation expected. Winds SW 15-25 mph, gusts 30-35 mph each day. Minimum RH values 5-15% Saturday, 10-20% on Sunday, 7-15% Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.