textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and breezy weather will continue on Friday. Over the weekend, a weak weather disturbance will deliver cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions along with a chance of showers late Saturday into Sunday. Breezy and unsettled weather is expected to continue well into next week.

DISCUSSION

A dry westerly flow aloft has set up across Arizona. The result will be seasonable temperatures tonight and on Friday under periods of high thin clouds. The spring wind regime will continue with southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph during the day Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...A shortwave trough from over the Pacific will approach Arizona during the day Saturday then move across the area Saturday night and Sunday. In response to the trough, look for daytime high temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than recently experienced along with southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph both days. Along with the trough will come additional moisture as well as dynamics for upward lift for a chance of showers. The best chances will be Saturday night into Sunday when liquid equivalent precipitation amounts ranging from 0.05-0.20 inches is forecast. There will be enough instability with the passing system for isolated thunderstorms. On Sunday colder air aloft will make its way into Arizona with snow levels dipping to elevations as low as 6,000-6,500 feet Sunday morning. Any accumulation of snow is expected to be minor, generally 1.0 inch or less except for the very highest mountain peaks. Snow levels then rapidly rise starting late Sunday morning with daytime heating.

From Monday onward...Expect dry weather and a bit warmer temperatures through Tuesday as a shortwave ridge ushers in a milder air mass. Winds will turn lighter than on Saturday and Sunday but still west to southwest at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Skies will remain mostly clear.

From Wednesday onward...Yet another weak weather disturbance will move across Arizona with cooler temperatures and a chance of showers returning. Breezy weather to continue.

AVIATION...Friday 24/00Z through Saturday 25/00Z

VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, becoming SW 10-20kts, gusts 30kts after 15-18Z Friday.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 25/00Z through Monday 27/00Z...VFR conditions through 00Z Sunday. Isolated to scattered -SHRA after 00Z Sunday with brief MVFR possible near heavier showers. Winds SW 10-20kts, gusts 25-35kts Saturday and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Dry weather will continue with seasonable temperatures and daytime humidity in the 10-20% range through Friday. Near-critical fire weather with winds up to 30 mph today across eastern Arizona. Southwest winds increase Friday and Saturday to 15-25 mph gusting up to 35 mph. Expect increasing humidity on Saturday with a 30-60% chance for light showers developing Saturday night. The best chances for wetting precipitation will be along the Mogollon Rim.

Sunday through Tuesday...Light showers continue Sunday morning, decreasing by Sunday afternoon. Sunday will be the coldest day with a warming trend thereafter. Enhanced southwest winds continue Sunday at 20-25 mph gusting 30-40 mph, though humidity will remain above any critical thresholds. Southwest winds generally 10-20 mph are expected Monday/Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.