textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Windy conditions continue through this afternoon, followed by cooler temperatures Friday as a weather system passes to our north. Dry on Saturday with chilly morning lows, then turning warmer to start next week.

DISCUSSION

A quick shortwave will brush past northern AZ today into tomorrow. The the trajectory of the disturbance will keep any precipitation well to our north, and the primary impacts are cooler temperatures and gusty winds. Gusts this afternoon have peaked in the 30-40 mph range. Winds will remain elevated into tonight, eventually shifting west to northwest through Friday morning. Friday afternoon will see below normal temperatures along with west to northwest winds gusting to 25 mph across much of the area, however gusts up to 30-40 mph are possible in far eastern AZ.

A dry northeast flow will develop Friday night into Saturday. High elevation locations protected from the winds will be chilly on Saturday morning, potentially into the teens to low 20s. Elsewhere, consistent breezes keep overnight lows more moderate. Areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim could even see localized gusts up to 25 mph through the night.

A few weak shortwave features will approach AZ on Sunday and Monday. We will see breezy south to southwest winds with recovering dewpoints, and there may be just enough lift for some isolated showers over the high terrain. A deeper Pacific trough looks to come onshore sometime late next week, but there is plenty of spread in the track and timing, and confidence is low in the impacts.

AVIATION...Friday 17/06Z through Saturday 18/06Z

VFR conditions. Winds W/SW 5-15 kts overnight, becoming NW-NE 10-20 kts after 14Z then subsiding to 5-10 kts after 02Z. NE winds remaining elevated downwind of the terrain overnight.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 18/06Z through Monday 20/06Z...VFR conditions. Winds N/NE 5-15 kts on Saturday, becoming S/SE on Sunday. NE winds remain elevated downwind of the terrain.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Dry and seasonably cool. Winds turning northerly on Friday, 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts over Apache County. Winds on Saturday will be northeasterly at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph..

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and turning warmer. South winds 10 to 20 mph on Sunday, southwest 10 to 20 mph on Monday and 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.