textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for Friday and into the weekend, along with a modest cooling trend and breezy southwest winds.

DISCUSSION

Monsoon moisture will return as early as tomorrow as high pressure reestablishes itself over Arizona. We have entered the shoulder season, so the moisture pool will occasionally retreat and then move back northward as it interacts with troughs for the next several weeks. Eventually, these troughs will sweep the moisture out permanently, but this looks like it is at least 10 days out.

Southwest breezes will also pick up over the next few days as low pressure passes to our north, but nothing that will need any headlines.

So, this is the last very warm day, expect some cooling as showers pick up heading into the weekend. We should dip back to normal around Monday or Tuesday.

AVIATION...Friday 11/06Z through Saturday 12/06Z

Primarily VFR conditions. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA across much of northern AZ after 18Z, continuing through the late evening. Brief drops to MVFR conditions and erratic/gusty winds possible near +TS. Winds are SW-W 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts from 18-03Z, light and VRB otherwise.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 12/06Z through Monday 14/06Z...Primarily VFR conditions. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon/early evening over the Eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, ISOLD elsewhere. Winds are SW-W 10-20kts each day.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase for Friday and into Saturday as moisture moves back northward. Wetting rains will be possible with any thunderstorm. Mainly daytime southwest winds will range from 10 to 15 mph, with gusts from 20 to 25 mph, for both afternoons.

Sunday through Tuesday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue. Expect afternoon southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to near 30 mph each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.