textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return today, with isolated activity lingering Sunday around the Four Corners region. Gradually warmer and dry conditions set in for the first- half of next week.

DISCUSSION...Today and Sunday

A cut-off low is currently spinning over southern california this morning. This low is expected to gradually meander it's way eastward over the weekend, keeping cooler temperatures in store through Sunday. Precipitation chances also look to creep back into northern Arizona with some residual moisture still place. The best chances look to be mainly along and north of the Mogollon Rim today, with some isolated activity lingering across the Four Corners region on Sunday. While a few brief heavy downpours could be possible, much of the rainfall looks to be light. Thus, the threat for additional flash flooding looks to be minimal but the rain will certainly add to the already elevated area waterways.

Monday through Friday...As the closed-low lifts into Colorado, weak ridging, or even quasi-zonal flow looks to build into the southwest. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions look to prevail into much of next week. A deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest looks to potentially breakdown this pattern near the end of next week, however model guidance remains uncertain in the exact track of the low. Nevertheless, cooler temperatures and potentially a return of precipitation looks possible near the end of the week.

AVIATION...Saturday 24/06Z through Sunday 25/06Z

Mainly VFR conditions. Winds light and VRB overnight, then S-SW 5-10 kts after 18Z Saturday, with stronger SW winds 10-20 kts east of a KSOW-KRQE line. Patchy MVFR CIGS and ISOLD-SCT -SHRA mainly north of a KGCN-KRQE line 09Z-18Z. After 18Z, ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA over much of northern/central AZ with localized MVFR in heavier rain. Gusty winds to 25 kts in SHRA/TSRA. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA gradually shifting mostly north of I-40 Saturday evening.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 25/06Z through Tuesday 27/06Z...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA mostly north of I-40 through around 09Z Sunday, then ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA at higher elevations of far northern AZ Sunday afternoon. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SHRA/TSRA and patchy overnight BR, otherwise VFR with VRB winds 5-10 kts for most of Northern Arizona.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday

Cool. Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Saturday, shifting to the Four Corners on Sunday. Winds south/southwest 5-10 mph, with breezier winds of 10-20 mph across eastern Arizona. Winds becoming light and variable on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures. Winds variable 5-10 mph on Monday, becoming south/southwest for Tuesday and Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.