textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and windy conditions continue through the beginning of the week. Areas of Critical fire weather each day through Tuesday. Winds begin to diminish by midweek, and daytime temperatures become above normal. Slight chance for showers by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Relatively stationary troughing to our northwest will keep northern AZ in a dry and windy pattern through the start of the week. Observations from this afternoon have southwest wind gusts peaking in the 30-40 mph range. With the combination of gusty winds and low RH, a Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through 8 PM MST this evening for most of northern AZ. Critical fire weather conditions continue on Monday and Tuesday. Areas along/north White Mountains, Mogollon Rim, and Coconino Plateau will see daytime peaking in the 35-45 mph range. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for these regions Monday morning through Tuesday evening.

By Wednesday, troughing pushes eastward and the gradient aloft relaxes. Surface winds diminish compared to previous days, but may remain gusty enough for localized Near-Critical fire weather in far eastern AZ. Winds decline enough by Thursday to put a pause on fire weather concerns. Heights aloft build to above normal, and expect daytime highs 5-10 degrees above early June normals by late week. Long term model guidance also hints at a southerly moisture surge into the weekend. The latest LREF guidance has the mean PW exceeding the 90th percentile compared to climatology on Friday- Sunday. The current forecast keeps PoPs 20% or less, but this will be a period to watch with future updates.

AVIATION...Monday 08/00Z through Tuesday 09/00Z

VFR conditions. Winds S/SW 10-20 kts through 03Z, then subsiding to 5-15 kts through the overnight. Winds increase to 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/00Z through Thursday 11/00Z...VFR conditions. Winds S/SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts on Tuesday, becoming W/SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts on Wednesday. Winds decreasing to 5- 15 kts overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday

Warm, dry, and windy conditions. There is a slight chance of a dry thunderstorm near the White Mountains Monday afternoon. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. Winds SW 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph each day. Afternoon minimum RH 5-15%. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of northern AZ through Tuesday evening.

Wednesday through Friday...Warm and mostly dry. Breezy SW-W winds of 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph Wednesday, decreasing to 10-15 mph Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH is 5-15% each day. A slight increase in moisture is possible Friday, with a low chance of a high- based thunderstorm near the White Mountains.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>116-139-140.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Monday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ104>107-109>117-139-140.