textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Rain and high elevation snow will continue through this afternoon, before drier conditions return for Sunday and Monday. Additional unsettled weather at times is likely next week.

DISCUSSION

Rain and high elevation snow showers will continue through the afternoon, with a brief drying trend returning for Sunday and Monday. The highest rainfall totals have generally been from a half inch to an inch along the Mogollon Rim, with snow accumulation limited to above 8000'. Once a dual trough push eastward tonight, a ridge will briefly impact the Southwest. Daytime highs will rebound closer to seasonal norms, and dry conditions return with light winds.

Another low pressure system will swing through the state on Tuesday/Tuesday night. The best forcing once again looks to be along and southwest of the Mogollon Rim, with high confidence for similar precipitation amounts to today's system. This next system will be on the slightly colder side, so there is moderate confidence for light snow accumulation (up to 0.5") down to around 7000'. And as for locations above 8000', there is upwards of a couple of inches of new snow potential.

Yet another brief lull in precipitation follows Wednesday into Thursday before some degree of unsettled weather by the end of next week. There is still uncertainty with the timing and trajectory of the storm system later next week, so continue to check back for forecast updates. The EC ensemble maintains a colder and wetter/snowier scenario, while the GFS ensemble shows a weaker and more progressive system.

AVIATION...Sunday 15/06Z through Monday 16/06Z

Pockets of MVFR cigs will linger from KFLG southward through about 09-10Z with some brief fog also possible through about 15Z near KFLG/KSEZ/KPRC. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected. Light winds of 5-10 kts or less are expected tonight through Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Monday 16/06Z through Wednesday 18/06Z...VFR conditions expected through Monday. Light winds overnight, becoming southerly 5-15 kts on Monday afternoon. Southerly winds increase Tuesday to 10-20 kts gusting 30-35 kts ahead of the next approaching trough. Showers develop over western AZ Tuesday morning and spread east through the day with snow levels remaining above 8,500 ft MSL through daytime Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday

Scattered showers and and high elevation snow showers (8,000' and higher) are expected to diminish from west to east this afternoon, with drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures expected Sunday and Monday. Southwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting near 30 mph will continue through the early afternoon hours across most of northern Arizona, though the White Mountains will likely see winds around 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Gusts are expected to slowly subside through 3-4 pm, then winds becoming more west-northwest during the evening hours, then light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Light and variable winds are expected to to continue through Sunday, with winds on Monday becoming southerly around 5-10 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Additional showers and cooler conditions are expected Tuesday and during the daytime Wednesday. Snow levels will be lower, with accumulating snow possible down to 6500-7000'. Light southerly winds forecast for Wednesday, with breezy southwest winds 15-25 mph on Tuesday. Wednesday night is expected to be dry, but showers are expected to develop across northern Arizona from west to east on Thursday as the next next mid-level trough pushes eastward from the west coast. Breezy southwest winds 15-25 mph will return Thursday along with snow levels likely dropping back down to 6500-7000', potentially even dropping as low as 6000'.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.