textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A slight chance for rain and snow showers over the higher terrain will continue through early tomorrow morning. Warmer conditions return over the weekend and into next week. Dry conditions prevail for much of the coming week, with only a slight chance for showers across central Arizona on Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION...Today

Dry and cool conditions briefly set in across the region following a cold front that moved through last night. Showers are beginning to return as some modest moisture and instability have built through the day. Activity will remain mostly limited to regions along the Mogollon Rim and Kaibab Plateau. Model soundings indicate at least an initial dry sub- cloud layer that will suppress accumulating precipitation at the surface. However, guidance varies on shower intensity and whether this will be overcome. Overall, some localized light snow accumulations are not out of the question within this showery regime, especially in the vicinity of Flagstaff and the Kaibab Plateau. Activity will conclude by early tomorrow morning as a cut-off low ejects to the southwest.

Saturday and Sunday...The low continues its southwest trajectory before stalling off the coast of Baja California. The main thing of note during this period will be northeast breezes. Localized terrain enhanced northeast breezes along/downwind of the Mogollon Rim and mountains in Yavapai county could bring gusts 25-35 mph on Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with a warming trend as heights recover aloft. Daytime highs look to return above normal by Sunday.

Monday through Thursday...The cut-off low finally begin to push eastward early next week. The question remains to be the timing and exact trajectory it will follow. The majority of guidance keeps this feature further to the south and brings the best precipitation chances Monday evening into Tuesday for areas Flagstaff southward. Primarily rain is expected at this time. Thereafter, we look to return to another period of quiet weather as ridging builds into the weekend.

AVIATION...Saturday 07/06Z through Sunday 08/06Z

VFR conditions forecast through the period. Look for NE winds 5-15 kts through much of the period, but localized gusts 20-30 kts possible, primarily along and west of a KSEZ-KFLG-KPGA.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 08/06Z through Tuesday 10/06Z...VFR conditions forecast through the period. Look for -SHRA after 18Z Monday, primarily along and south of a KPRC-KSOW line. Breezy NE winds downwind of higher terrain likely overnight Saturday into Sunday. Light and variable winds expected Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Afterwards, look for S-SW winds 5-15 kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday

Cool on Saturday, turning warmer on Sunday with dry conditions expected. Northeast through east winds around 5-15 mph each day. Locally gusty winds expected along and south of the higher terrain.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm temperatures continue. Chances for showers along and south of the Mogollon Rim on Monday and Tuesday, then a return to dry conditions Wednesday. Southwest winds 5-15 mph on Monday, increasing to west winds 10-20 mph on Tuesday, then shifting to the north 5-15 mph on Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.