textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Drier and warmer conditions will move in through the end of the week and weekend following the exit of the low pressure system that brought showers/storms earlier this week. High pressure looks to dominate the region through the next week or so, but we could see a brief short-wave bring isolated showers to the higher terrain next week.

DISCUSSION

The low pressure system that helped funnel in moisture over the last few days is currently centered over the NE corner of New Mexico. With this disturbance exiting the region, high pressure looks to build over the Southwest for the next several days. This change in the synoptic pattern will allow for temperatures to gradually warm and drier conditions to return. Expect daytime highs to climb near normal for this time of year and for minimum RH values to steadily drop through the forecast period. Before we dry out though, current elevated dew points could lead to some overnight/early morning fog across the High Country. If areas do see this first thing in the morning, everything should burn off fairly quickly as daytime heating kicks in.

Although model guidance is in agreement with high pressure lingering over much of the Western US through next week, there is some discrepancies on whether or not a short-wave will clip the eastern part of the state, and create a few isolated showers/storms across the higher terrain. Confidence is very low at this time on whether or not we'll see the return of precipitation, so for now, expect mostly dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION...Thursday 01/06Z through Friday 02/06Z

Mainly VFR expected. Local MVFR or lower between 09Z-15Z due to fog/low clouds. VRB winds around 5 kts, becoming E-NE 5-15 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 02/06Z through Sunday 04/06Z...VFR expected. Daytime winds E 5-10 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday through Friday

Expect warmer temperatures and drier conditions through the end of the week. Look for north through east winds 5-15 mph each afternoon, becoming light/variable overnight.

Saturday through Monday...Near normal temperatures forecast through the weekend and into next week, along with mostly dry conditions. A very slight chance of showers possible across the White Mountains on Monday, but confidence is low. Look for easterly winds 10-20 mph Saturday and Sunday afternoon, becoming light and variable by Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.