textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Although mainly hot and dry conditions are expected through much of the week, there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over portions of eastern/central Arizona through at least the early part of the week. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon for most of the week.

DISCUSSION

A typical pattern for early July has developed across Arizona. A strong ridge in place over eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico will keep many areas hot, dry and breezy. However, this ridge has also allowed for a thermal low to form along the Lower Colorado Rover, with Monsoonal moisture now pooling throughout northern Mexico, western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona. This moisture will find elevated heat sources to develop convection over the next few days, while battling drier and more stable air over western and northwestern Arizona.

The ridge then flattens a bit later in the week, likely pushing any convection south of our CWA for a few days, before rebounding by next weekend and into early next week. This pattern, out around the 6 to 7 day range, is looking quite a bit like the North American Monsoon, let us hope.

Before we get to that point, most of the region will continue to roast this week, especially the western sections. Temperatures at the lower elevations will flirt with Extreme Heat for most of the week and products are out along the Colorado River. Expect normal southwesterly breezes each afternoon, nothing that looks like any headlines will be needed.

Over eastern Arizona, expect convection to develop over the White Mountains for the next few afternoons, possibly as far west as Flagstaff by Tuesday. This is largely due to outflows driving moisture westward and against the prevailing flow.

AVIATION...Monday 06/18Z through Tuesday 07/18Z

Mostly VFR conditions. Brief MVFR possible in ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA, best coverage south of a KSOW-KJTC line. Winds are SW 10-20 kts today, becoming light and VRB after 03Z. Gusty/erratic winds expected near storms.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...Mostly VFR conditions. Brief MVFR possible in SCT SHRA/TSRA each afternoon, primarily over southern Apache and Navajo counties. Winds are SW-W 10-20 kts each day, becoming light and VRB during the overnight periods. Gusty/erratic winds expected near storms.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Most areas will remain hot and dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph and gusting from 25 to 30 mph. Some moisture pooling over eastern Arizona will allow for chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. The storm chances Monday will mainly be in and around the White Mountains, but may spread as far west as Flagstaff by Tuesday. Isolated wetting rains are possible under the stronger storms.

Wednesday through Friday...Hot and mostly dry. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue, but mainly just over the eastern portions of Arizona. Expect daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006.

Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday evening through Saturday evening for AZZ006.