textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger into this evening before ending overnight. A few showers will redevelop Wednesday, mainly in the northeast corner of the state. Fair and much warmer weather returns for Thursday and continues into early next week.

DISCUSSION

An upper low over southern California early this afternoon will move quickly eastward through northern Arizona this evening and off into New Mexico after midnight. A round of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue ahead of the low, with daytime heating leading to increased instability. The best coverage (40-70%) will be along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, with less coverage farther south/west. With the low moving in, daytime highs today are 10-15 degrees below normal. A few showers will linger on the back side of the low through late evening before most activity ends by midnight. On Wednesday - a trailing shortwave dropping due south out of the northern Rockies will clip our region. This will help produce another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Mogollon Rim northward. Coverage is forecast to be less than today though. Temperatures Wednesday will be around 10 degrees warmer along/south of the Mogollon Rim with little change in northeast Arizona due to the passing shortwave.

Thursday into early next week - dry and much warmer weather is expected as high pressure develops over the southwest United States. Daytime highs are forecast to be 5-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, warmest early next week. Daily relative humidity will be quite low, in the single digits to low teens, but winds should be mainly light, in the 5-15 mph range, with some higher gusts to 25 mph on Saturday.

AVIATION...Wednesday 06/00Z through Thursday 07/00Z

SCT -SHRA and ISOLD -TSRA will dissipate from west to east this evening, with most activity ending by 04Z-06Z. Any heavier showers may produce brief MVFR conditions, with even some graupel/wet snow above 6500-7000 feet MSL. Conditions becoming VFR later tonight and into Wednesday. Gusty sfc winds S-SW15-25g30-35kts through 02Z-03Z, then becoming 5-15kts overnight. Daytime sfc winds W-NW10-20kts on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 07/00Z through Saturday 09/00Z...Expect VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA near the Four Corners through 03Z Thursday. Daytime sfc winds N-NE5-15kts Thursday and W-NW10-20kts Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday

Showers and thunderstorm chances become confined to the northeastern corner of the state Wednesday, mainly north and east of the Mogollon Rim. Rainfall amounts will generally be light with a wetting rain not expected. Things dry out and begin to warm up on Thursday. Winds becoming NW 10-20 mph on Wednesday, NW 5-10 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values 15-30% Wednesday, dropping to 9-15% Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Expect dry and much warmer weather with high temperatures rising to 10-15 degrees above average. Winds generally NW 5-15 mph on Friday, SW-W 10-20 mph gusting to 25 mph on Saturday, NW-N 5-15 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH values 8-15% Friday and Saturday, 6-13% Sunday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.