textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

An area of low pressure remains over the West Coast, keeping dry conditions and breezy winds in place. High pressure will move in from the southeast over the weekend, and moisture will slowly begin to funnel into the state. Precipitation chances are minimal at this time, and mostly focused over the White Mountains for the first part of next week.

DISCUSSION

An area of low pressure continues to dominate much of the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern is keeping breezy winds and dry conditions as the main story at least through the end of the week. Expect southwest winds between 10-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph possible throughout the afternoon today and tomorrow. The breezy conditions mixed with the widespread single digit minimum RH values will keep much of our CWA in a near- critical fire weather conditions state.

Over the weekend, high pressure will build in from the southeast. This pattern shift will bring daytime highs closer to normal for this time of year, and will also allow moisture to move in across the state. Right now there doesn't look to be a major moisture surge, but we will see minimum RH values creep up over the weekend and into next week, especially across the higher terrain. For now, the White Mountains region has the best chances for seeing rain/thunderstorms for the first part of next week. If the area of high pressure ends up settling in a more traditional monsoonal pattern position, we could see increase coverage for showers/storms, but confidence is low at this time for that scenario panning out.

AVIATION...Thursday 02/12Z through Friday 03/12Z

VFR conditions forecast through the period, outside of brief MVFR/IFR conditions in FU/HZ near KFLG and KSEZ due to a local wildfire. Expect light winds through 18Z, becoming SW 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts afterwards. Light and variable winds return after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 03/12Z through Sunday 05/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected, but periods of MVFR/IFR conditions possible near KFLG/KSEZ due to HZ/FU from a local wildfire. Look for south west winds 10-15 kts gusting near 20-25 kts each afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Dry and breezy conditions will continue. Look for southwest winds 10-20 mph gusting near 25-30 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH values will generally be 10% or less, and daytime highs will increase each day.

Saturday through Monday...Near normal temperatures will move in for the weekend/early next week. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon. Moisture will slowly creep in from the southeast each day, bringing minimum RH values to 10-20% by Monday. Slight chances for showers/storms across the White Mountains by Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.