textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Cooler and breezy conditions remain today behind a cold front. Gradually warmer and less windy conditions return for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION...Today

Gusty winds remain over the higher terrain this morning as a cold front moves across northern Arizona. Winds should gradually subside from west to east with the frontal passage, thus for most of the area the Wind Advisory will expire by 5 AM MST / 6 AM MDT. Across eastern Arizona, FROPA looks to still be a couple hours later, so the advisory has been extended to 11 AM MST / 12 PM MDT.

As the aforementioned front moves through the region, a brief period of showers will move from west to east, primarily near the AZ/UT border. Given that surface moisture will remain fairly minimal, much of the activity is expected to be either virga or light in nature. The best shot at measurable precip looks to mainly be across the Kaibab Plateau, an potentially Black Mesa and the Chuska Mountains as well. 00Z HREF guidance appears to be a bit bullish with precipitation chances, brining them as far south of as the Mogollon Rim. However, model soundings don't really support this outside of a subtle increase in low-level moisture early this morning. Nevertheless, PoP chances were maintained in the Flagstaff area for the potential for a couple isolated showers. Colder air aloft does move in with the front, so a few snow flakes may mix in at times above 7000-7500 feet. However any potential for measurable snow looks to remain above 7500-8000 feet and primarily near the Kaibab Plateau.

Tuesday through Sunday...Zonal flow sets in behind the low earlier in the week. Warming temperatures and dry conditions look to ensue as a result, with a return to near-normal highs by the middle to end of next week. Weak troughing will keep winds fairly light each day, with mainly only the typical afternoon breezes expected.

Ensemble guidance all signal towards PWATs increasing slightly by next weekend as a weak low looks to increase moisture advection into Arizona. For now, this looks to mainly result in a slight chance for some high-based showers around the White Mountains.

AVIATION...Monday 18/12Z through Tuesday 19/12Z

VFR conditions. Winds W/SW 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts through 03Z, then becoming N/NE 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 19/12Z through Thursday 21/12Z...VFR conditions with W/SW winds 5-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts each day.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday

Slight chance for light showers and possibly a thunderstorm this morning across far northern Arizona, otherwise dry and cool conditions. Winds west/southwest 10- 20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph, subsiding to 5-15 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-30%, falling to 10-20% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday....Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ early this morning for AZZ004-006-009-012-013-015-016-039-040.

Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning for AZZ011- 014-017.