textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A few light showers remain across the White Mountains, but otherwise it should be a fairly quiet start to your Thursday. Additional rain/snow showers will move in west to east after 5 PM MST and continue into early Friday. Strong winds will once again be present, creating blowing snow concerns. Milder weather returns over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Other than a few light showers lingering across the White Mountains currently, we'll see a brief break in winter weather this morning/afternoon. Drier air and light winds quickly followed the shortwave that moved through yesterday, which will create very cold morning low temperatures. Many locations across the High Country are already in the single digits and teens, but overall widespread below freezing temperatures are anticipated. The third and final system of this series we've been dealing with this week is settled off the coast of northern Oregon at the moment. Throughout today this disturbance will slide towards the Great Basin region and eventually clip the northern half of Arizona. Once again we anticipate rain/snow showers to impact our CWA, along with breezy winds and cold temperatures. We have a handful of products out now including Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm Warnings, and Wind Advisories in place beginning at 5 PM MST this evening and continuing into Friday. Snow totals look to be between 4-8" across the Flagstaff area, and 6-12" across the Kaibab Plateau, and these two locations are where we have the Winter Storm Warning in effect later this evening into Friday morning. Even though the greatest snow amounts look to be across these areas, many areas above 5000' are projected to receive accumulating snow between a trace up to 5". With the bulk of this new snow falling Thursday night/Friday morning, expect travel delays for your Friday morning commute with slick/snow covered roads. And if you happen to be out and about in the middle of the night, poor visibility will be a concern due to blowing snow.

Once this last system pushes eastward, a zonal flow with quickly follow on Saturday before a ridge begins to set-up across much of the western CONUS by Sunday. As a result, daytime highs look to rebound to 2 to 10 degrees above normal by Monday and continue to warm through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION...Thursday 19/06Z through Friday 20/06Z

Mainly VFR with isolated MVFR/IFR conditions continuing over higher terrain. Light winds overnight, becoming SW-W 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts after 18Z. ISO-SCT SHSN/SHRA, mainly after 00Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 20/06Z through Sunday 22/06Z...MVFR/IFR/LIFR +SN/+RA and BLSN through 15Z Friday. SW-W winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts into Friday. VFR with diminishing winds returns late Friday and Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday

Another cold storm system will bring a round of widespread rain and snow tonight into Friday, with snow levels dipping as low as 3500 feet. Southwest winds 10-20 mph today increasing to 10-20 mph gusting to 30-40 mph tonight through midday Friday. Diminishing showers and winds Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...Fair weather with a warming trend. Variable winds 5-15 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST Friday for AZZ004.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST Friday for AZZ006>008.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM MST Friday for AZZ014-017.

Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Friday for AZZ015.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Friday for AZZ016.