textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions return for much of this week, with isolated chances for showers across the higher terrain each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Another day of showers and thunderstorms is in store for today, with the main areas being along and south of the I-40 corridor. Drier air is starting to filter into the region as the flow turns more to the west early this morning, then will continue as we see a more northwesterly flow develop. This will push the moisture to the south through the day today. PWATs have already started to drop but still remain in the 75th-90th percentile for this time of year. Any storms that develop today will be capable of heavy rainfall, gusty/erratic outflow winds, small hail, and lightning. Once the sun sets, we should see the activity begin to diminish across the forecast area.

As we head into tonight, the moisture continues to push to the south, though we don't fully lose it through the week. While much of the area will dry out and heat up this week, there will remain chances for isolated showers, mainly across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, each afternoon.

With the drier conditions and warming temperatures, we will again see the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon reach between 105-110 degrees each afternoon. If you have plans to be in the canyon, then make sure you are prepared for hot conditions.

A weak low tries to form around mid week, but it will mostly just bring some stronger winds to the region. These winds will arrive around Tuesday and continue through Wednesday, with elevated winds continue through the overnight areas downwind of the higher terrain.

Drier conditions along with the expected stronger winds across the region, will bring enhanced fire weather conditions to far northern and eastern Arizona for Tuesday through Friday. Just another thing to keep an eye on as we go through the week.

By the weekend, we see another couple of shortwaves approach the area, which should help to cool temperatures slightly.

AVIATION...Monday 15/12Z through Tuesday 16/12Z

SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISO +TSRA after 18Z, mainly along or south of a KCMR-KFLG-KSJN line. Brief MVFR and erratic, gusty winds to 40 kts INVOF of storms. Outside of storms, expect W-NW winds 10-20 kts, becoming light after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/12Z through Thursday 18/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible each afternoon, mainly south of a KPRC-KSJN line. SW-NW winds 10-20 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts on Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts on Wednesday. Elevated winds overnight Tuesday and Wednesday east of terrain features.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday

Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms today, mainly along and south of the I-40 corridor. Coverage drops to isolated on Tuesday, mainly along and south of the higher terrain. Any storms that develop are capable of producing wetting rains and gusty, erratic winds that may reach 30 to 40 mph. Outside of storms, expect southwest to west winds at 10- 15 mph today, becoming west to northwest at 10-20 mph on Tuesday. Drier conditions across the northern areas will bring enhanced fire weather conditions to far northern and eastern Arizona on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly along the Mogollon Rim through the White Mountains each afternoon. Most areas will remain dry with warmer temperatures. Expect southwest to west winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph each day. Enhanced fire weather conditions possible across far northern and eastern Arizona each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.