textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Chances for showers and thunderstorms hang on for one more day near the New Mexico border, with much drier air moving in from west to east for the weekend. Expect warm high temperatures and cold overnight low temperatures over the weekend, as shower chances disappear. This may last through Monday, before unsettled weather returns for the rest of next week.

DISCUSSION

Much drier air begins to filter into the region today as low pressure drifts through the northern Great Basin heading into the weekend. Some remnant moisture over the eastern zones may lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms for one more day, but that is about it.

These remnant chances are gone over the weekend as dew points drop into the lower 20s. Expect crisp and cool weather, due to overnight lows falling into the 30s. Daytime highs will remain at or just above normal.

By early next week, another low drifts over the area. This low may take a southerly track, which may pick some of the Monsoon moisture pool back up. We have added some low PoPs next week as this low arrives, possibly even lasting through the rest of next week, as southerly flow returns. Confidence is marginal on this scenario, we will wait and see.

AVIATION...Friday 18/12Z through Saturday 19/12Z

Expect VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/-TSRA near the NM border in the afternoon hours, little to no activity elsewhere. Sfc winds SW10-15g20kts in the daytime, otherwise light.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 19/12Z through Monday 21/12Z...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies. Expect sfc winds SW10-15g20kts in the daytime, otherwise light.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue for Friday, mainly near the New Mexico border. Much drier air moves in from west to east on Saturday. Expect warm daytime high temperatures, but overnight low temperatures will plummet as dew points fall into the lower 20s. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph in daytime, especially over higher terrain.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry Sunday and Monday, with chances for showers an thunderstorms returning for Tuesday. Winds will be generally light, but trending southwesterly 5 to 15 mph over the higher terrain in the afternoon. Warm daytime temperatures will continue, with cold overnight lows.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.