textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Colder temperatures and brisk northeast winds continue through Monday, especially north of the Mogollon Rim. Expect warming temperatures by mid-week, although unsettled weather may return for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

A complicated pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere will yield rather uncomplicated weather through Wednesday. After Wednesday, things get quite uncertain and potentially unsettled.

Much drier air has moved into the region today, with a persistent northeasterly gradient in the boundary layer that developed last night. Aloft, hghts will build as ridging develops our northwest. This means higher elevations and locations southwest of the Mogollon Rim will begin to warming over the next several days. The locations along the northern edge and to the north of the Mogollon Rim will stay cold, due to inversions and light northeast flow.

While this pattern is evolving, a weak piece of trough energy will retrograde around the high to our northwest. This low will cut off somewhere west of San Diego, potentially tapping into sub-tropical moisture by mid-week. Ahead of that low/moisture, the ridge becomes displaced and amplifies over Arizona by Wednesday. This eliminates the northeast flow and turns it southerly.

Then, the low may, or may not, eject. This in response to upstream energy that has not formed yet. If so, a plume of moisture could advect into the west, but it could be anywhere from California to Arizona. Then, the upstream energy may or may not move this plume eastward and may prolong activity into next weekend, depending on how progressive it is.

So, you see, fairly straightforward weather through mid-week, then perhaps unsettled. Stay tuned!

AVIATION...Monday 29/00Z through Tuesday 30/00Z

VFR conditions. Winds N/NE 5-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts downwind of higher terrain...including KSEZ and KGCN.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 30/00Z through Thursday 01/00Z...VFR conditions. Winds generally NE 10-20 kts with higher gusts downwind of the higher terrain overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Cool and dry conditions. Winds north/northeast 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph Monday, decreasing to north/northeast 5-10 mph with gusts 15-20 mph Tuesday. Downslope wind gusts will persist through the overnight hours at locations south/southwest of higher terrain features.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions remain on Tuesday, with chances for precipitation returning by late Wednesday and lasting through at least Friday. Light and variable winds are forecast Wednesday, becoming light south/southwest Thursday and Friday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.