textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will linger into Sunday around the Four Corners region. Gradually warmer and dry conditions through the middle of the week.
DISCUSSION
A cut off low will move into Arizona today and then slowly move towards the north on Sunday. This will keep it cool across northern Arizona through the weekend. Moisture has been slow to exit the region and as a result we will continue to see some scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening across the region. As the low lifts to the north on Sunday, the best chance for any additional showers will towards the Four Corners region. Rainfall amounts look to be light but with the already wet conditions, some areas may see some localized flooding.
Heading into Monday, the flow becomes more zonal with a trough passing well to the north of our area. Temperatures are expected to warm with drier air pushing into the region. This pattern looks to hold through about midweek, when the next trough starts to dig down from the Pacific Northwest. Guidance shows moisture increasing as sub-tropical moisture is pulled toward the region in the developing southwest flow as early as Thursday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning to end the week.
AVIATION...Saturday 24/18Z through Sunday 25/18Z
Expect primarily VFR conditions. Look for isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA through 06Z, with brief MVFR conditions and gusty winds in SHRA/TSRA. Between 06Z-16Z local MVFR conditions could develop in low ceilings/fog. Winds generally south to southwest 5-10 kts but 10-20 kts in the vicinity of KSJN/KJTC.
OUTLOOK...Sunday 25/18Z through Tuesday 27/18Z...Look for isolated -SHRA/-TSRA and MVFR conditions northeast of a KPGA-KRQE line Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions with variable winds 5-10 kts.
FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday
Sunday will see isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Four Corners. Otherwise, cool and dry conditions are forecast. Winds light and variable 5-10 mph.
Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions with warming temperatures. Daytime winds south to southwest 5-10 mph gusting 20 mph on Tuesday are forecast to increase to 10-20 mph gusting 25-30 mph by Thursday. Winds mainly light and variable overnight periods.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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