textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Windy and cooler conditions will continue today and Friday with an upper-level low over the Sierra Nevada. Critical fire weather conditions are expected over portions of eastern Arizona both days as a result. Warmer conditions and lighter winds return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION...Today and Friday

A closed-low remains stalled over the Sierra Nevada today. As a result, cooler than normal temperatures and windy conditions are expected to continue. Given the further west position of the low, moisture remain limited over Arizona. Therefore, dry conditions are expected to prevail for most. A brief sprinkle or shower can not be totally ruled out over the Kaibab Plateau on Friday, but this seems to be the extent of the precipitation chances.

Another day of gusty winds are expected later this afternoon, especially over the higher terrain. Peak gusts today are expected to mainly be in the 30-40 mph range, with some locally higher gusts possible downwind of the higher terrain. The combination of gusty winds and low relative humid will lead to areas of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon, especially in the Little Colorado River Valley. Therefor, a Red Flag Warning remains for the LCR Valley again today. Elsewhere, RH values look to remain above 15% during the afternoon hours.

Stronger winds look to remain across eastern Arizona on Friday, with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. While relative humidity does look to increase slightly, it remains low into the Four Corners region. Thus, another day of critical fire weather conditions looks probable. Lighter winds and higher humidity is expected for western and central Arizona.

Saturday through Wednesday...Heights begin to rise once again over the weekend as the trough lifts into the central US. Dry conditions and rising temperatures set in once again as a result, with afternoon highs returning to near to slight above-normal for this time of year. Lighter winds also look to ensue, aside from some typical afternoon breezes.

Ensemble guidance from the EPS, CMCE, and GEFS all signal towards PWATs increasing near the middle of next week. As of now, this looks to mainly lead to a slight potential for high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern Arizona.

AVIATION...Thursday 28/12Z through Friday 29/12Z

VFR conditions. Winds S/SW 5-15 kts before 16Z, then increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts through 03Z. Winds subsiding to 5-15 kts after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 29/12Z through Sunday 31/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds SW 15-25 kts with guts 30-35 kts on Friday, becoming W/SW 10- 20 kts on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions expected each day, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Little Colorado River Valley this afternoon. Winds south/southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 8-18% today, increasing to 10-25% on Friday.

Saturday through Monday....Dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ112>114-140.