textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Gusty southwest winds are expected across the region today, with slightly cooler temperatures for the rest of this week. Some storm activity may develop by late week into the weekend, but outlooks are leaning dry and confidence is low.

DISCUSSION...Today

The amplified ridge which has brought record-breaking temperatures over the weekend is finally pushing eastward, and a shortwave trough currently centered over northern CA is approaching. The low and any associated precipitation will stay north of AZ, but gusty southwest winds can be anticipated across the region this afternoon. The strongest winds are expected in regions along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Peak gusts have trended down slightly from previous forecast packages, but still remain within Wind Advisory criteria. No changes to the previous headlines, a Wind Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MST for these regions today. Daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday across northern AZ, though sites in the Little Colorado River Valley will stay near-record with help from enhanced mixing.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The shortwave trough moves clear of our area and brief ridging builds overhead. We see a period of lighter winds and a pause in the cooling trend as daytime highs remain around 10 degrees above normal each day.

Thursday and beyond...Cooler and breezy conditions are expected as the pattern remains unsettled. The next trough looks to dive southeastward across the Great Basin and reach northern AZ on Thursday. The current trajectory could see another day of gusty winds with a slight chance of showers along the AZ-UT border, but the exact details may change as the upstream features continue to evolve. Each day thereafter into the weekend will retain an low chance (10-20%) of showers. As of right now, confidence on any impactful rain/snow through the week remains low.

AVIATION...Monday 02/12Z through Tuesday 03/12Z

VFR conditions. Light winds early this morning, then after 17Z SW winds 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts. Strongest winds will be along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Winds gradually diminishing after 03Z most areas, but remaining SW 10-15 kts on the north side of the Mogollon Rim/White Mountains including KSOW much of the night.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 03/12Z through Thursday 05/12Z...VFR conditions. West through north winds 5-15 kts Tuesday afternoon, becoming southwesterly 10-20 kts on Wednesday. Look for overnight winds to be light and variable.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday

Windy, dry, and warm today with temperatures 15-20 degrees above average, cooling to 5 to 10 degrees above average for Tuesday. Winds today SW 20-30 mph gusting 35-45 mph, becoming NW-N 5-15 mph on Tuesday. Minimum RH 15-25% today, 10- 20% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday..Dry and mild conditions continue Wednesday. Temperatures cool to near average Thursday and Friday as low pressure moves through. The low also brings a 10-20% chance of light showers from Flagstaff northward. Winds SW 5-15 mph on Wednesday, SW-W 15-25 mph Thursday, NW-N 5-15 mph on Friday. Minimum RH values 10-20% Wednesday, 15-30% Thursday and Friday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ012>017-039-040.