textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Seasonable temperatures will continue through Friday with slightly cooler conditions returning this weekend into next week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, with isolated showers along the Arizona-New Mexico border on Friday. Expect much drier conditions to return starting on Friday and continuing into next week. Critical fire weather conditions expected for Friday and the weekend and a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Strong southwest winds arrive on Friday with a Wind Advisory in effect and then the windy conditions will continue through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Strong high pressure over northern Mexico will gradually slide to the east as deepening trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. The trough will drop into the Great Basin over the weekend. A bit of a blocking pattern exists for the first half of the week with the trough to our west and a strong ridge to the east. The high will slowly retrograde to the west through the week.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue again today, with the majority of the activity remaining along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Most storms have been weak but a few stronger storms will be capable of strong outflow winds, small hail, and brief heavy downpours. Activity should start to taper off near or just after sunset as surface heating wanes with some storm activity continuing across northeastern Arizona through late this evening.

As the trough starts to dig southward, we will see conditions changes fairly quickly across the state. Most areas will dry out appreciably, though some lingering moisture may remain across eastern Arizona and into New Mexico. Only expect some isolated activity to develop on Friday, mainly in Apache and eastern Navajo counties. Moisture clears out pretty quickly by Friday evening and dry conditions are expected to continue through the weekend and into next week.

The gradient between the trough and departing high will tighten up and this will increase the southwest winds across the region. Friday looks to be the start of the gusty winds with many areas seeing winds gusting to 40-45 mph Friday afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for much of northern Arizona for Friday from 11 AM through 8 PM. The winds will increase further on Saturday and Sunday with gusts 45-55 mph through much of the region. Winds will remain elevated overnight Saturday into Sunday with winds gradually diminishing late Sunday. Wind Advisories will likely be needed for the weekend. Winds then diminish for Monday and into next week but stay gusty, remaining below advisory criteria.

With the strong winds and very dry conditions, we are expecting critical fire weather conditions to occur from Friday through Sunday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of northern Arizona for Friday through Sunday. While it won't be nearly as windy on Monday, near-critical fire weather conditions will continue.

AVIATION...Friday 26/00Z through Saturday 27/00Z

Mainly VFR conditions expected, but brief MVFR conditions possible along and north of a KGCN-KSOW line through 03Z with linger SHRA/TSRA. Look for SW winds 5-15 kts through 03Z too, before decreasing out of the south overnight. Mostly dry conditions forecast for Friday, with a few showers/storms possible along the AZ/NM border. Expect S-SW winds 15-25 kts Friday afternoon with widespread gusts near 40 kts possible.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 27/00Z through Monday 29/00Z...VFR conditions expected through the period. Look for gusty SW winds Saturday through Sunday, where sustained winds will be between 20-30 kts and gusts will be around 40-45 kts. Wind gusts overnight Saturday into Sunday could reach higher speeds immediately downwind of higher terrain.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible along the Arizona/New Mexico border Friday, drying out elsewhere. Dry conditions across the whole area Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of northern Arizona Friday and Saturday due to increasing winds and decreasing humidity. Winds SW 15-25 mph gusting to 35-45 mph Friday, SW 20-30 mph, gusts 40-55 mph on Saturday and remaining elevated Saturday night. Minimum afternoon RH 7-10% lower deserts, to 12-20% Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Sunday through Tuesday...The Red Flag Warning continues Sunday for strong winds and low humidity. Dry weather continues area wide through the time period. Winds Sunday SW 20-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph, dropping to SW 10-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph on Monday and S-SW 10-15 mph, gusts to 30 mph Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH values each day as low as 7-10% lower deserts to 12-20% Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Friday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ104>118-137>140.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for AZZ004>016-039-040.