textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Temperatures warm up to 5 degrees above average throughout the week. Low grade monsoon conditions continue with only isolated storms for the first part of the week. By midweek thunderstorm coverage begins to increase across the area as more moisture is drawn into the state.

DISCUSSION

High pressure over the state will keep the region in low grade monsoon conditions for the next couple days. Sinking air from this feature will warm things back up above average, as well as make it harder for showers and storms to develop. Only the White Mountains and parts of the Rim are expected to see any activity. High temperatures get pretty close to Extreme Heat Warning criteria for the lowest parts of the Grand Canyon Tuesday and Wednesday so the next couple shifts will have to watch and see if a Heat product needs to be issued for that area.

By midweek the high pressure area shifts to the east and centers over the Four Corners which is more conducive for more monsoon moisture to overspread the state. Look for POPs to rise across the higher terrain Wednesday and by Thursday and Friday most of the area should see a chance of showers/storms. Temperatures are still expected to remain above average but a couple degrees cooler which should keep Heat products from being needed in the lower Grand Canyon. Continued moisture and cloud cover by this weekend should get temperatures back down to seasonal averages.

AVIATION...Monday 17/12Z through Tuesday 18/12Z

VFR conditions, brief MVFR near showers/storms. Scattered showers/storms between 18Z and 03Z in the White Mountains, isolated showers/storms possible between 18Z and 03Z over the Rim. Daytime winds SW-W 5-10kts, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds possible near storms.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 18/12Z through Thursday 20/12Z...VFR conditions, brief MVFR near showers/storms. Chance of isolated to scattered storms Tuesday over Rim and White Mountains between 18Z-03Z. Better chance of storms over Rim and White Mountains Wednesday between 18Z-03Z. Winds SW-W 5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds possible near storms.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday

Temperatures 5 degrees above average with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, best coverage over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Winds SW-W 5-10 mph each day, gusty and erratic winds possible near storms. Minimum RH values 15% lower deserts to 35% in the White Mountains.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures continue to be about 5 degrees above average. Scattered showers over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains on Wednesday, with coverage increasing and spreading westward on Thursday and Friday. Winds SW-W 5-10 mph each day, gusty and erratic winds possible near storms.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.