textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, along with warming temperatures are expected through the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION...Today and Sunday

Drier air has moved into northern Arizona ahead of a trough. However, while coverage may tick downward today, enough moisture looks to remain to keep at least isolated to scattered coverage for today. Latest hi-res guidance has much of the activity along and south/west of the Mogollon Rim. A similar story looks to take hold on Sunday, but with the best coverage looking to shift to eastern Arizona.

With the trough, 06Z RAP guidance has 0-6 km shear around 25-30 kts. Therefore, a couple strong to severe storms will be possible once again this afternoon. Large hail and gusty outflow winds will be the primary hazards with any severe storm. PWATs south of the Mogollon Rim remain around 0.8-1.0 inches, and 0.5-0.8 inches to the north. Flash flooding will be possible, but given that storm motions of around 10-15 kts and less of a threat for training storms, the overall threat will be localized.

Outside of storms, slightly warmer, but still cool temperatures remain over northern Arizona with less and less cloud cover expected each day. Monday through Friday...High pressure slowly begins to retrograde and strengthen over the southwest through the coming week. Warming temperatures ensue across northern Arizona as a result, with afternoon highs returning to near-normal to slightly (~5F) above normal.

With monsoonal moisture still in place, precipitation chances look to still continue into the coming week. However, as the ridge strengthens, afternoon convection will become suppressed. Therefore, much of the activity looks to be isolated in nature, and largely focused on the higher terrain.

AVIATION...Saturday 15/18Z through Sunday 16/18Z

VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible 19Z-03Z, mainly along/west of a KGCN-KFLG- KJTC line. Gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions possible near storms. Otherwise, winds W/SW 5-10 kts becoming light and VRB after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 16/18Z through Tuesday 18/18Z...VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA each day 19Z-03Z, mainly over the higher terrain. Higher coverage of storms INVOF the White Mountains on Monday afternoon. Gusty winds and brief MVFR conditions possible near storms. Otherwise, winds VRB at 10 kts or less through the period.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday

Turning warmer. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain. Outside of storms, winds will generally be southwest/west 5- 10 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Continued warming temperatures. Chances for isolated showers remain each afternoon, mainly across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Outside of storms, winds generally south through west winds 5-10 mph each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.