textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week and into the weekend, along with typical afternoon breezes. By Memorial Day, a weak low may bring increased winds and a low chance of showers or thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION
Dry springtime weather is expected to persist through Sunday, with a slow warming trend. A weak trough passing north of the state will keep typical afternoon breezes of 10-15 mph with some afternoon gusts 20-25 mph in the forecast. Some mid-level moisture associated with the passing trough will bring some increased daytime clouds, especially along the higher terrain. There could be some virga or a sprinkle mainly Saturday/Sunday near the White Mountains and Chuska Mountains, but this doesn't look significant. By Memorial Day, a weak low moving in from the west is forecast to advect slightly more moisture into our region. Some lift and cooler air aloft with the low may increase instability enough for some isolated showers and thunderstorms, with light rainfall amounts. We have 20-30% PoPs in our latest forecast for Monday afternoon and evening. This moves out by Tuesday, with another low approaching from the northwest showing up in the guidance by mid week. Still plenty of spread in the ensemble data with the placement/timing, but increased winds look like the main impact at this time for our region.
AVIATION...Thursday 21/00Z through Friday 22/00Z
Expect VFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW-W5-15g20-25kts in the afternoon hours, otherwise light.
OUTLOOK...Friday 22/00Z through Sunday 24/00Z...Expect VFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW-W5-15g20-25kts in the afternoon hours, otherwise light.
FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday
Dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Winds are west through southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each day, along with minimum RH 5-15%.
Saturday through Monday....Mostly dry on and Saturday and Sunday, with just some isolated high-based showers or virga possible. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Monday. Winds are west/southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH is 10-20% on Saturday and Sunday, then 15-25% on Monday.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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