textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

An active pattern will remain in place through the end of the week. Greatest coverage for showers/storms look to be during the afternoon/early evening hours each day, but we cannot rule out the potential for overnight activity. Otherwise, expect seasonable daytime highs and breezy southwest winds.

DISCUSSION

Storms have fired up across portions of our CWA, especially in Yavapai and Coconino Counties where model guidance suggests the strongest instability is. Sufficient moisture remains in place across the state as shown in our above normal PW values. Another shortwave is the main culprit for today's activity. The sounding from this afternoon does show a decent cap, so storms aren't very severe in nature, but that could change through the rest of the afternoon. For now, training storms leading to flash flooding seems to be the main concern.

A broad trough across the West Coast will lead way to a handful of embedded shortwaves pushing through the state this week. This will keep us in a rather activity pattern each day. Although guidance suggests convection being rather widespread/heaviest during the afternoon periods, overnight activity could quickly downplay how each day turns out. Between the atmosphere being worked over and likelihood of debris clouds, we could see quieter days than models are depicting at this time. As always, we'll do our best, but in environments like this taking it day-by-day is usually the best plan of attack.

By next weekend overall precipitation chances look to diminish, but a few isolated showers across eastern Arizona may still remain in the forecast. More details on that later.

AVIATION...Monday 14/06Z through Tuesday 15/06Z

Expect patchy ceilings 4-7 kft AGL over the next 24 hours. Mainly isolated -SHRA/-TSRA overnight periods and scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-02Z producing occasional MVFR conditions. Daytime winds outside of gusty thunderstorms/outflows, south to southwest at 10-20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 15/06Z through Thursday 17/06Z...Expect patchy ceilings at 5-8 kft AGL. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA mainly between 18Z-03Z each day with generally isolated -SHRA/-TSRA the remainder of the time. Occasional MVFR conditions anticipated. Daytime winds outside of thunderstorms/outflows, south to southwest at 10-20 kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into Sunday evening, especially over Yavapai and Coconino counties. Gradual clearing overnight, but redevelopment may occur early Monday morning as outflows approach from the south. The chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Monday and Tuesday, but the focus shifts eastward, due to a trough passing to our north. Mainly daytime south through southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph, can be expected each day. Temperatures will remain right around normal.

Wednesday through Friday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue, possibly becoming more widespread during this time frame. Daytime southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.