textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions will continue through Friday afternoon, before showers increase in coverage on Saturday. Along with precipitation, gusty southwest winds are expected. A brief drying trend will return Sunday and Monday, with additional precipitation likely by Tuesday. Snow levels look to remain above 8000' for the first round of showers, but could drop below 7500' for the Tuesday storm system.

DISCUSSION

A strong area of high pressure continues to dominate the Southwest, and will continue to do so through Friday afternoon. This pattern will keep dry conditions and warm temperatures around for the time being. The synoptic pattern will begin to shift by mid-day Friday, as a couple of disturbances push in from off the West Coast. The first shortwave on Friday afternoon will take a southerly trajectory, keeping precipitation chances limited to areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim. A larger trough following closely behind will move across northern Arizona on Saturday. Our forecast has more scattered to widespread coverage for showers throughout Saturday, but overall rainfall accumulation appear to be less than 0.25". Snow levels also are forecast to remain above 8000', so only areas such as the Kaibab Plateau, San Fransisco Peaks, and the White Mountains are expecting snow accumulation. Even so, snow accumulation doesn't look overly impressive with these areas likely only seeing 0.1-1.5". Outside of precipitation, gusty southwest winds are also expected on Saturday, especially during the early morning hours where we could see localized gusts near 30-40 mph.

Sunday and Monday...Another ridge will build over the Southwest, bringing warmer and drier conditions.

Tuesday...A colder and stronger trough looks to swing across much of the Western CONUS on Tuesday, bringing additional precipitation and cooler conditions. With this system being on the colder side, snow levels look to drop closer to 7000-7500', so areas such as Flagstaff, Parks, Happy Jack, and Kachina Village could see a light dusting. There is still time to hash out all the details of this system, so check back later for more information.

AVIATION...Thursday 12/12Z through Friday 13/12Z

VFR conditions forecast through the period. Mostly light/variable winds expected, but localized NE breezes downwind of higher terrain possible through 15Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 13/12Z through Sunday 15/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected, but brief MVFR conditions possible on Saturday due to -SHRA/-SHSN. Look for southerly winds 10-20 kts on Friday, becoming S-SW 15-25 kts by 12Z Saturday. Light and variable winds return by 06Z Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Mild temperatures will stick around for today, with cooler afternoon highs moving in on Friday. Dry conditions expected today, with slight chances (15-30%) for showers Friday evening primarily along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Look for light east-southeast winds 5-10 mph today, becoming southerly at 10-20 mph on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Below normal temperatures expected through the weekend and into next week. Showers expected throughout Saturday, before another brief drying trend returns Sunday and Monday. Snow levels look to remain above 8000-8500' for Saturday. Winds will be south through west 15-25 mph on Saturday, light/variable on Sunday, and southerly 5-15 mph on Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.