textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through Thursday, with additional showers and thunderstorms forecast Friday through at least the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Are you enjoying the calm/dry weather? Better enjoy it while it lasts, because there is additional showers and thunderstorms forecast to return by Friday. Before we dive into the upcoming unsettled weather, Arizona currently remain under a zonal flow, keeping afternoon highs near normal for this time of year and winds light/variable. Dry air looks to stick around through much of Thursday, but increasing high clouds likely starting tomorrow.

The initial push of moisture as early as Thursday night/Friday morning, will be primarily from Tropical Storm Vance interacting with a strong low pressure system forecast to push in from the Pacific. Precipitation will be greatest along and south of the Mogollon Rim, where rainfall amounts could range between 0.10-0.50 inches. Elsewhere will stay drier with up to 0.10 inches possible. This initial onset of moisture also looks to remain on the showery side, with only a few isolated thunderstorms expected. And thunderstorms that do form, will likely be from orographic influence. Saturday we could see a brief lull in activity as we wait for another shortwave to push in from off the southern California Coast. This second surge of moisture will be late Saturday through much of Sunday, where we could see more a more dynamic set-up, creating a more favorable environment for severe weather. There is still some uncertainty with the confidence of the severe weather threat, so check back for more details as we get closer to the weekend. Outside of thunderstorm potential, there is greater confidence for flooding concerns.

In short, dry/mild weather continue through Thursday, with showers/thunderstorms likely returning Friday through the weekend. The wet and potentially active weather could impact Halloween plans, so be sure to keep an eye on the forecast.

AVIATION...Wednesday 28/06Z through Thursday 29/06Z

Mainly VFR conditions. Localized VIS restrictions in HZ/FU near prescribed burns. Light and variable or terrain driven winds overnight, becoming S-SW winds 5-15 kts after 17Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 29/06Z through Saturday 31/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA after 06Z Friday. Daytime winds S-SW 10-20 kts, becoming light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Thursday

Dry conditions and seasonable to slightly above normal daytime temperatures. Expect afternoon south to southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday through Sunday...Expect cooler conditions Friday through Sunday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms that are likely to produce wetting rain. Greatest potential for heavier rainfall looks to be Sunday. Afternoon southerly winds from 10 to 20 mph, gusts around 25 mph possible Sunday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.