textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will move across northern Arizona today, bringing gusty winds and much cooler temperatures. There will be a chance for light rain and snow showers in far northern Arizona this afternoon through Friday. Daytime highs look to return to above normal by late this weekend and into next week, along with a chance of rain showers by Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

A trough was moving eastward through Nevada into Utah early this morning, with the surface cold front passing through Cedar City UT as of 2 AM and headed southeastward. This fairly stout cold front will move through Arizona today, entering the NW corner around sunrise, Prescott/Flagstaff by late morning and the AZ/NM line by late afternoon/early evening. Southwest winds will be strongest ahead of the front, favoring areas from the eastern Mogollon Rim/White Mtns northward through the Little Colorado River Valley. These areas are forecast to see wind gusts of 40-45 mph through the afternoon and early evening, and a Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM. Temperatures today will be 10-15 degrees cooler for most areas, with gusty winds making for a chilly day in the high country following over a week of abnormal warmth. As the trough passes through, there will also be a 20-40% chance of some light snow showers primarily over the northern 1/3 of the state this afternoon and evening, then mainly northeast Arizona/Navajo Nation overnight. PoPs have trended up a bit for this part of the forecast, and we have raised them from NBM values. Snowfall amounts along/north of a Grand Canyon to Window Rock line are forecast to remain under one inch, though areas around Buffalo Pass could see an inch or two. By Friday, a trailing shortwave is forecast to move south-southwest through western Arizona and eventually cut off southwest of the state. It will be cold again, with a low chance of some additional light snow showers mainly for the Kaibab Plateau and an outside chance as far south as Flagstaff.

Saturday through Tuesday - forecast guidance is good agreement in forming a closed low over northern Baja by Saturday and Sunday, then ejecting it east-northeastward by Monday and Tuesday. The weekend looks dry for our area, with some gusty east winds Saturday and near to slightly above normal temperatures. PoPs increase to 20-50% by Monday as the low ejects, highest along/south of the Mogollon Rim. Right now, the forecast temperatures support precipitation mainly in the form of rain with any snow staying above 9000 feet elevation.

AVIATION...Thursday 05/06Z through Friday 06/06Z

VFR conditions are expected. Winds S to SW at 5-15 kts with localized gusts to 20 kts over and northeast of elevated terrain features through 15Z. From 15Z-01Z, widespread SW winds at 15-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts, then becoming W to NW at 10-20 kts gusting to 25 kts Thursday night.

OUTLOOK...Friday 06/06Z through Sunday 08/06Z...VFR conditions are forecast, 10-20% chance of light rain and snow showers across the Kaibab Plateau, Chuska Mountains and along the AZ/UT border between 18Z Thursday and 00Z Saturday. Winds W to NW at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts Friday, N to NE at 5-10 kts Friday night into early Saturday morning, then shifting to NE to E at 10-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts Saturday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday

Cooler. Chance for light rain and snow showers today mainly over the higher terrain from Flagstaff northward. Slight chance again on Friday, mainly over the Kaibab Plateau. Winds southwest/west 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph today, becoming northwest 5-15 mph on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Turning warmer. Mainly dry conditions through Sunday, with chances for rain increasing late Sunday into Monday. Winds northeast 10-20 mph on Saturday, subsiding to 5-15 mph on Sunday. Winds then shift southwest on Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ012>014-016-017-039-040.