textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warm temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and mainly light southwesterly winds are expected much of this week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday over southern Navajo and Apache counties.

DISCUSSION

A weak upper low off of the southern California coast will continue to drop south and then east into Mexico over the next couple of days. The return flow around the low will allow for some moisture to advect into the eastern part of the forecast area, resulting in some showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening near the White Mountains. As the low continues on its eastward journey, it moves slightly further south than previous model runs have shown, which may limit some of the moisture getting into our area. However, the chances will continue for some showers and thunderstorms across southern Navajo and Apache counties through Thursday. With relatively dry conditions we may not see much liquid fall from any storms that do develop but there is a possibility that some dry lightning and gusty outflow winds accompany any storms. Additionally, we will continue to see warm air filter in the region with temperatures rising to around 5-10 degrees above normal.

By Friday, the low has shifted to far south and east to keep the moisture moving into the region so chances for any shower activity comes to an end. A ridge will start to build into the region on Saturday and looks to continue into early next week. The models continue to struggle with how a deepening west coast trough might progress into our area. With the trough placement in limbo, it has started to look warm, dry, and breezy as we start the new week, with the potential for some shortwaves to move across the region towards midweek. Still a low confidence forecast that far out, especially with how much the models have flipped in the past day or so.

AVIATION...Wednesday 03/06Z through Thursday 04/06Z

VFR conditions. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA between 18-02Z along and east of a KSOW-Four Corners line. Winds SW to W at 10-20 kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 04/06Z through Saturday 06/06Z...VFR conditions. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KSOW-KSJN line Thursday afternoon then dry the remainder of the period. Winds SW to W at 10-20 kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday

Primarily dry, but some showers or thunderstorms are possible over the White Mountains, possibly extending up into the Chuska Mountains each afternoon. Wetting rains are not expected. Winds are SW-W 10-20 mph each day. Minimum RH as low as 7% in the northeast deserts, to as high as 20% in the White Mountains each day.

Friday through Sunday...Dry with no precipitation expected. Winds SW- W 10-20 mph Friday but pick up on Saturday and Sunday at SW 15-30 mph. Minimum RH values 5-15% Friday and Saturday, increasing to 10- 20% on Sunday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.