textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild and dry weather is forecast through Thursday. Cooler, wet and unsettled weather looks to return for Friday and through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Slightly above normal hghts will persist through Thursday, delivering seasonably warm daytime temperatures and southwesterly breezes each afternoon.

By early Friday, the flow aloft turns more southwesterly and once again, tropical moisture will get pulled into the area heading into the weekend. This pattern is not quite as clear-cut as the last few events, but has the potential to really soak our state.

The first wave of moisture on Friday is almost purely tropical. Expect a generalized light rainfall for most places and without much in the way of dynamics, thunderstorm activity will be limited. On Saturday, the moisture stream continues, but almost nothing in terms of large scale ascent. So, mainly a drippy day, with showers tied to terrain.

By Sunday, a much larger slug of tropical moisture arrives, all while the northern stream trough finally makes its move into the interior west. Many things have to come together to get this right on Sunday and phasing issues have already been noted. However, the potential with this final wave is for widespread heavier showers and thunderstorms. Stronger lift and shear comes into play, which may produce isolated severe thunderstorms.

A few showers may linger into Monday as the trough moves east, but in general, the remainder of next week looks like a new ridge will dominate, with a return to fair and seasonably warm conditions.

AVIATION...Tuesday 27/06Z through Wednesday 28/06Z

VFR conditions. Localized MVFR due to HZ/FU at sites near prescribed burns. Light and variable or terrain driven winds overnight, then becoming S-SW 5-15 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 28/06Z through Friday 30/06Z...VFR conditions. Daytime winds S-SW 5-15 kts, becoming light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Dry conditions and seasonably warm daytime temperatures. Expect afternoon south to southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...Another dry and warm day Thursday, with continued southerly winds at 10 to 15 mph. Expect cooler conditions Friday and Saturday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms that are likely to produce wetting rain. Afternoon southerly winds from 10 to 20 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.