textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warming temperatures and lighter winds are expected this week. Most areas will remain dry, but chances for showers and thunderstorms increase by the middle of the week, mainly for southern Navajo and Apache counties.

DISCUSSION

A dry southwest flow aloft will continue for our area through Monday with weak troughing to our west/northwest and a ridge over the southern plains/Texas. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees warmer each day, with relatively light winds.

Tuesday through Thursday - an increase in moisture is forecast over the eastern 1/3 of the state especially southern Apache and Navajo counties. This is in response to a brief period of south/southeast flow aloft as the weak trough approaches from the west. Ensemble mean precipitable water values are in the 0.50"-0.60" range over this area, peaking Wed/Thu. These values are down slightly from 24 hrs ago. Shower and thunderstorm chances are limited to around 20% for the White Mtns region Tuesday, increasing to 30-60% Wed/Thu with 10-20% chances spreading into the Chuska Mtns/Window Rock area. Elsewhere, the mid level moisture increase should be enough for some afternoon high-based cumulus, but precipitation is not expected. Daytime temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal, with typical early June winds of 5-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph.

Friday into next weekend - drier southwest flow is forecast to return as troughing develops again to our west. Increasing southwest winds and a bit cooler temperatures could develop as the trough approaches toward the weekend.

AVIATION...Sunday 31/18Z through Monday 01/18Z

VFR conditions. Winds are SW-W 5-15 kts through 03Z, becoming light and VRB or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 01/18Z through Wednesday 03/18Z...Primarily VFR conditions. Winds are SW 5-15 kts each day. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible in southern Apache County on Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Primarily dry, but a slight chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms in southern Apache county on Tuesday afternoon. Winds are southwest 10-20 mph each day. Minimum RH is 5-15% on Monday, then 10-20% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Chance (30-60%) for afternoon showers and thunderstorms primarily in southern Navajo and Apache counties on Wednesday and Thursday, mostly dry elsewhere. Winds are southwest through west 10-20 mph each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.