textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild temperatures, mainly dry conditions and occasional breezes are expected through the weekend. Despite the dry forecast, a few instances of flooding continue. Stay away from waterways and if you come to a flooded road, turn around, don't drown.

DISCUSSION

Look for a mainly dry weather pattern well into next week. A weak and dry flow develops aloft today, leading to light and variable surface winds at 5-10 mph under mainly clear skies with nearly steady high/low temperatures.

A weak trough drops southward across Arizona on Friday before heading further south over the weekend. As the trough passes through on Friday, there will be just enough lingering moisture and forcing for the development of instability showers over a few higher terrain areas with daytime heating. Consequently, a slight chance of showers is expected over the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains and Chuska Mountains Friday afternoon into the early evening. Any precipitation amounts will be minimal and snow levels around 9000' are forecast. Behind the trough on Saturday and Sunday, high pressure will build over the Great Basin. Pressure gradients for north to northeast flow will then develop with locally gusty winds developing, particularly Saturday. Most areas will see north to northeast winds at 10-20 mph but for locations where northeast winds get funneled along and south to the Mogollon Rim, with localized gusts of 30-40 mph likely based on latest ensemble guidance.

For next week, it looks like fair weather will hold through at least Wednesday with a lack of dynamics and dry northerly flow in place.

AVIATION...Thursday 05/12Z through Friday 06/12Z

VFR conditions with winds NW-NE at 5-10 kts. Locally breezy winds downwind of the terrain overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 06/12Z through Sunday 08/12Z...VFR conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-SHRASN Friday afternoon/evening. Winds N/NE at 5-15 kts both Friday and Saturday, with stronger gusts over the higher terrain Saturday - such as around 25 kts at KFLG.

FIRE WEATHER

Today and Friday..Mainly dry conditions with seasonably cool temperatures. The only exception is a few isolated rain or high elevation snow showers over the White Mountain region Friday afternoon/evening. Winds Thursday will be light and variable winds at 5-10 mph, then N-NE at 5-15 mph Friday. Expect minimum RH around 30%-50% each day.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue. Winds becoming N-NE at 10-20 mph on Saturday, NE-E at 5-15 mph Sunday, light and variable Monday. Minimum RH's 25- 40% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.