textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect dry and warmer weather over the weekend, with a chance of mainly rain showers early next week. Even warmer weather then develops later next week.

DISCUSSION

Progressive flow in the northern stream will continue through this forecast period. This allows energy that is currently retrograding over Arizona to form a cut off low, located well to our southwest, over the weekend. The air mass over Arizona will quickly stabilize and warm as the low sinks south, with little or no chance for any precipitation. Eventually, this low gets picked up by the northern stream early next week, bringing a brief chance of showers as it ejects Monday night and Tuesday. This will likely be followed by an aggressive west coast ridge, that will bring a pronounced warming and drying trend for the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION...Saturday 07/12Z through Sunday 08/12Z

VFR conditions. Winds NE 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts before 02Z, then subsiding to 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 08/12Z through Tuesday 10/12Z...VFR conditions before 18Z Monday, then periods of MVFR possible in low CIGS/SHRA. Winds E/NE 5-15 kts on Sunday, becoming S/SW on Monday. Localized gusts 20-25 kts 03Z-16Z Sunday downwind of the higher terrain.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday

Cool today, turning warmer on Sunday. Dry conditions each day. Winds northeast 10-20 mph today, becoming east/northeast 5-10 mph. Locally gusty winds expected along and south of the higher terrain.

Monday through Wednesday...Warming temperatures. Chances for showers along and south of the Mogollon Rim on Monday and Tuesday, with dry conditions returning on Wednesday. Winds south/southwest 5-10 mph on Monday, becoming west 10-15 mph on Tuesday, then shifting to the north/northeast on Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.