textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Breezy winds and chances for high-based showers arrive on Sunday with cooler and more unsettled weather returning through the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

A few light showers are popping up on radar, mainly across southern Navajo and Apache counties this afternoon. With such dry air in the low levels though, it will likely only result in some sprinkles or very light rain. An isolated thunderstorm is not outside the realm of possibility but best dynamics are off to the east so they may be located closer to the New Mexico border.

A weak ridge will then move across the region on Sunday as a closed Pacific low moves into southern California. The gradient tightens up and winds will start to increase out of the south-southwest on Sunday. As the low pushes to the east winds will increase further and become quite gusty, peaking on Monday. Winds on Sunday will be around 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph on Monday.

The southerly flow will be able to tap into a better moisture pool, which will initially translate to increased cloud cover to start the week. We may see some showers develop on Sunday, mainly along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Conditions will dry out on Monday with better chances for showers returning on Tuesday as the low moves across the state. Even with better chances arriving, the amounts look to remain fairly light.

The lack of precipitation this winter and spring has certainly made things dry across the state. RH values look to drop down into the teens on Monday, especially across the Little Colorado River Valley and across Navajo Nation. Combined with the gusty winds, this may result in elevated fire weather concerns on Monday but widespread critical conditions look unlikely to occur.

The low will cool things off through midweek before high pressure returns with warming temperatures and dry conditions.

AVIATION...Sunday 03/06Z through Monday 04/06Z

Expect VFR conditions. Areas of CU/SC with bases from 9-12kft AGL will clear overnight. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA from 19Z-02Z Sunday, mainly to the north of I-40. Sfc winds light overnight, but then S-SW10-20g25-30kts AFT 18Z-20Z Sunday, decreasing after sunset Sunday night.

OUTLOOK...Monday 04/06Z through Wednesday 06/06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Dry conditions Monday, SCT -SHRA/ISOLD -TSRA on Tuesday. Some brief and heavier showers may produce MVFR over higher terrain. Daytime sfc winds SW15-25g30-35kts Monday and Tuesday, the slightly higher speeds favoring Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Slight chance for showers from the Mogollon Rim northward on Sunday, then mostly dry on Monday. Winds south/southwest 10-20 mph on Sunday, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Monday. Minimum RH is 15-30% on Sunday, then 10-30% on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for scattered showers across much of northern Arizona on Tuesday, with lingering activity into Wednesday, then dry on Thursday. Winds south/southwest 10-20 mph on Tuesday, becoming west/northwest 5-15 mph on Wednesday, then variable on Thursday. Minimum afternoon RH is 20-40% on Tuesday, 15- 30% on Wednesday, then 10-20% on Thursday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.