textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Windy and cooler conditions will continue through Friday with a trough over the Great Basin. Critical fire weather conditions are also expected over portions of northeastern Arizona. Warmer conditions and lighter winds return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION...Today through Friday

An unsettled pattern looks to remain over Arizona through the remainder of the work week as a strong trough over the Pacific Northwest dives southward and stalls along the Sierra Nevada. Given the further west position of the low, moisture remain limited over Arizona. Thus, dry conditions are expected to prevail. However, cooler temperatures and gusty winds are expected each day.

The strongest winds look to occur today, as the upper-level jet is expected to peak over Arizona. Gusts upwards of 30-40 mph look probable, with some higher gusts possible downwind of the higher terrain. While some areas do look to flirt with wind advisory criteria, the threat of 40+ mph gusts does not look widespread enough at this time to support any wind headlines. Given the gusty winds and dry conditions, areas of critical fire weather conditions are expected both today and Thursday, mainly across the Little Colorado River Valley into Navajo Nation. For this, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon for portions of the Little Colorado River Valley, Painted Desert, and the Kaibito Plateau. Elsewhere, RH values look to remain above 15% during the afternoon hours. More localized areas of critical fire weather conditions may remain near Four Corners on Friday.

Saturday through Tuesday...Heights begin to rise once again over the weekend as the trough lifts into the central US. Dry conditions and rising temperatures set in once again as a result, with afternoon highs returning to near to slight above-normal for this time of year. Lighter winds also look to ensue, aside from some typical afternoon breezes.

AVIATION...Wednesday 27/12Z through Thursday 28/12Z

VFR conditions. Winds S/SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts from 16Z to 03Z, otherwise 5-15 kts. LLWS possible downwind of the higher terrain overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 28/12Z through Saturday 30/12Z...VFR conditions. Daytime winds SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts Thursday, decreasing to 5-15 kts on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday

Windy, dry and mild conditions. Winds south/southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph today and on Thursday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% each day. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of northeast Arizona on Wednesday, a Red Flag Warning is in effect.

Friday through Sunday....Turning warmer and remaining dry. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% on Friday, falling to 5-15% over the weekend.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ109-112-113-140.