textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mostly dry and mild conditions expected through the weekend, outside of a slight chance of showers across eastern Arizona. Unsettled and cooler weather looks to return early next week.

DISCUSSION...Today

A strong moisture gradient is in place across Arizona, with dewpoints across the High Country in the 10s F to 40s F across southern Arizona as a weak low moves across northern Mexico. As a result, much of the precipitation has remained to the south of the region, over southeastern Arizona.

A weak shortwave looks to move through northern Arizona later this afternoon and evening, likely adding just enough upper-level support for some high-based shower activity and virga later today with remnant mid-level moisture.

Much of the hi-res does show the potential for a few light showers and sprinkles through the afternoon. As such, PoPs were increased slightly to at least get some non-zero chances in there, mainly over the higher terrain. The best shot at any precipitation will mainly be over the Kaibab Plateau and the White Mountains this afternoon, eventually transitioning to the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau area later this evening. Nevertheless, any precipitation that does develop will be minimal, given the fairly dry sub-cloud layer depicted in model soundings.

Saturday...Drier and warmer conditions set in on Saturday as a shortwave ridge quickly builds into Arizona. A few light showers and sprinkles will be possible again over the White Mountains, with dry conditions expected for the rest of the area.

Sunday through Thursday...Winder conditions set in on Sunday as a closed-low off the California coast begins to approach Arizona. Gusts in the afternoon upwards of 30-35 mph look probable on Sunday, and likely continuing into the overnight in areas unlikely to decouple downwind of the terrain. As the low ejects off the Pacific early next week, wind look to increase further. Winds are expected to peak on Monday, as the upper-level jet peaks in intensity. The depth of the boundary layer may limit the overall gust potential, but peak gusts up to 40 mph are not out of the question. RH values do look to fall a bit on Monday, potentially leading to some localed areas of critical fire weather conditions (especially in the Little Colorado River Valley), but widespread critical fire weather conditions do not appear likely at this time.

Increased southerly flow should aid in moisture advection into Arizona, at least at the mid-levels. However, any activity that does develop looks to be light and mainly isolated in nature given the lack of deeper moisture. The best chances for precipitation on Sunday look to be mainly across far northern Arizona. Precipitation chances then return again on Tuesday as the core of the low moves over Arizona, providing added lift for precipitation development.

Outside of the precipitation chances, a brief period of cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the first-half of the week. Behind the low, heights rise once again as high pressure builds back into Arizona. Drier and warmer conditions are expected as a result to close out the week.

AVIATION...Friday 01/12Z through Saturday 02/12Z

VFR conditions. ISO -SHRA possible over the higher terrain, best chances INVOF KJTC. Winds W/NW 5-15 kts, becoming N/NE through the afternoon and early evening. NE winds remain elevated downwind of the terrain overnight.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 02/12Z through Monday 04/12Z...VFR conditions. ISO -SHRA INVOF KJTC saturday afternoon, and again on Sunday north and east of KFLG. Winds S/SE 5-10 kts on Saturday, becoming S/SW 10- 20 kts with gusts to 20 kts on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Mild temperatures and mainly dry conditions. Slight chance for light showers and sprinkles over the higher terrain today, and again over the White Mountains on Saturday. Wetting rains are unlikely. Winds northwest through northeast 5-15 mph, becoming south/southeast on Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% each day.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mild temperatures remain on Sunday, then turning cooler for Monday and Tuesday. Slight chance for showers from the Mogollon Rim northward on Sunday, and again on Tuesday. Winds south/southwest 10-20 mph on Sunday, increasing to 15-25 mph on Monday, then subsiding to 10-20 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-30% on Sunday, falling to 10-20% on Monday, then rising back to 15-30% on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.