textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Windy and cooler conditions will continue through Friday with a trough over the Great Basin. Warmer conditions and lighter winds return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION...Through this morning

Remaining showers over northern Arizona will gradually diminish through the remainder of the overnight hours. Some patchy fog and low clouds will be possible over the higher terrain, before gradually burning off after sunrise.

Today through Friday...An unsettled pattern looks to remain over Arizona through the remainder of the work week as a strong trough over the Pacific Northwest dives southward and stalls along the Sierra Nevada. Given the further west position of the low, moisture remain limited over Arizona. Thus, dry conditions are expected to prevail. However, cooler temperatures and gusty winds are anticipated each day. The strongest winds look to occur on Wednesday and Thursday, as the upper-level jet looks to peak over Arizona. Gusts upwards of 30-40 mph look probable, with some higher gusts possible downwind of the higher terrain. Given the gusty winds and dry conditions, areas of critical fire weather conditions will be possible Wednesday and Thursday, mainly across the Little Colorado River Valley into Navajo Nation. Elsewhere, RH values look to remain above 15% during the afternoon hours. Additionally, the implications from yesterday's rainfall on fuels has not yet been assessed, and may limit the overall fire weather threat for some areas.

Saturday through Monday...Heights begin to rise once again over the weekend as the trough lifts into the central US. Dry conditions and rising temperatures set in once again as a result, with afternoon highs returning to near to slight above-normal for this time of year. Lighter winds also look to ensue, aside from some typical afternoon breezes.

AVIATION...Tuesday 26/12Z through Wednesday 27/12Z

MVFR conditions possible in patchy FG/BR through 15Z, otherwise VFR. Winds S/SW 10- 20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts, subsiding to 5-15 kts after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 27/12Z through Friday 29/12Z...VFR conditions. Daytime winds S/SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts each day, remaining elevated 5-15 kts overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday

Dry and cool conditions. Winds south/southwest 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph today, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 10- 20% each day.

Thursday through Saturday....Dry and cool conditions, turning warmer by Saturday. Winds south 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on Thursday, becoming west/southwest 5-15 mph for Friday and Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% Thursday and Friday, falling to 5-15% by Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.