textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Monsoon activity will increase today and perhaps again on Thursday, before tapering off a bit Friday. Due to the lack of widespread thunderstorm activity, very hot conditions will also persist through at least Friday. Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to increase over the weekend and especially during next week, as high pressure moves back a favorable position.

DISCUSSION

High pressure centered near Safford continues to provide conflicting shear profiles and steering flow for our area. Convection today remains unorganized, but may come together for this evening, as outflow boundaries run into the deeper moisture south of the Mogollon Rim. Nocturnal activity is a definite possibility for eastern and southern Yavapai County this evening.

Heading into Thursday and Friday, the high starts to move northward into a more favorable position, but will then strengthen. This and the possibility of debris cloud Thursday morning may keep convection down a little bit, while temperatures stay hot. We are holding the EHW for the Colorado River elevations through Friday.

By the weekend and into early next week. The mid-level high remains in a favorable position, the cap weakens and moisture will continue to move north each day. We could very well be back into a high grade Monsoon pattern by early next week. Stay tuned.

AVIATION...Thursday 06/00Z through Friday 07/00Z

Mainly VFR conditions. Scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly south of I-40 through 06Z. Activity then turning isolated through 18Z before ramping up again on Thursday with similar coverage as above. Gusty and erratic winds and MVFR/IFR conditions possible with storms. Otherwise, winds southwest to west 5-15 kts daytime, light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 07/00Z through Sunday 09/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Look for SHRA/TSRA each day, most numerous between 18Z-06Z. Gusty and erratic winds and MVFR/IFR possible with storms. Otherwise, winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts daytime, light and variable overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Continued warm with daytime highs 5-10 degrees above average. Showers and thunderstorms likely each afternoon, starting on Mogollon Rim and Kaibab Plateaus expanding south and westward as the afternoon progresses. Winds W 5- 15 mph daytime, becoming light/terrain driven overnight. Minimum RH values between 10-15% northeast high deserts, 20-30% other locations.

Saturday through Monday...Daytime highs will remain 5-10 degrees above normal through the weekend. Isolated showers/thunderstorms on Saturday, becoming more widespread by Sunday and Monday. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph daytime, light/terrain driven overnight. Minimum RH values 7-25% Saturday, 10-30% Sunday, 15-40% Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for AZZ005- 006.