textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Widespread dry conditions and gusty winds into this evening, with critical fire weather. Southwest winds remain breezy each afternoon Monday through Friday, with single digit to low teen minimum RH values keeping much of northern Arizona in near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. Afternoon temperatures will also slowly increase through the week, but remain mostly below normal for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

An unusually deep low pressure system for late June was located over the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Arizona is on the dry and windy southern portion of this low, resulting in a continuation of critical fire weather over our region. Observed wind gusts this afternoon have been slightly lower than Saturday, in the 35-45 mph range for most areas, with RH values in the single digits to low teens. The stronger winds aloft shift into east central Arizona later tonight through Monday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday, including the eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mtns, and Little Colorado River Valley. Southwest winds in these areas are forecast to reach 15-25 mph with gusts 35-40 mph. Winds elsewhere are forecast to be just below critical levels, but elevated fire weather will persist. On Tuesday, a trailing low moving through California is forecast to eject eastward through NV/UT, bringing more gusty winds to northern Arizona. At this time, the strongest winds are forecast to be in east central Arizona again, and Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday, general troughing continues over the western United States, keeping Arizona in a dry and breezy pattern with very low RH and near-critical fire weather for most areas. With the trough near the area, daytime temperatures will continue to be a few degrees below normal. High pressure building northward by next weekend will bring warmer temperatures and likely less wind. There is still a hint at some moisture increase from the east/south just beyond the 7 day forecast, but not much confidence in this yet.

AVIATION...Monday 29/00Z through Tuesday 30/00Z

Mainly VFR conditions, except for smoke plumes due to wildfires. Localized MVFR/IFR conditions possible in these plumes, including terminals KFLG and possibly KSEZ/KGCN. Sfc winds S-SW15-25g30-45kts through 02Z-03Z Monday, then 5-15kts overnight. Sfc winds increase again by later Monday morning, becoming SW10-20g25-35kts by Monday afternoon. Higher speeds over eastern AZ.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 30/00Z through Thursday 02/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Smoke plumes due to wildfires may produce localized MVFR/IFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25-30kts with light winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Tuesday

A Red Flag Warning continues into early this evening for all of northern Arizona, with gusty winds and widespread low RH values. Winds will be out of the southwest 20-30 mph gusting near 40-55 mph this afternoon. Near-critical fire weather will continue Monday and Tuesday area wide, with portions of east central Arizona experiencing critical fire weather. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday and a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday in east central Arizona.

Wednesday through Friday... Breezy and dry conditions forecast to continue. Expect southwest winds 10-20 mph each afternoon with gusts near 25-30 mph. Minimum RH values will mostly be below 10% each day, keeping much of northern Arizona in near-critial fire weather conditions.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>118-137>140.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004>016-038>040.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.