textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild weather will persist through Thursday, before cooler and wetter conditions return Friday onward. Snow levels still look to remain generally above 8500', so rainfall will be the primarily form of precipitation over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday

High pressure over the Southwest remains the dominant factor through the middle of this week. Fully dry conditions are expected with daytime highs around 5 degrees above seasonal normals. Expect overnight lows closer to normal with efficient radiational cooling each night. Also expect generally light northeast-east winds 5-15 mph each day, but some stronger and localized terrain enhanced winds will be possible south of the Mogollon Rim.

Friday through Saturday...The aforementioned high pushes eastward past Arizona while a pair of low pressure systems dig along the west coast. The first of these systems will dive well south of our area, and follow a trajectory through northern Mexico and southern Arizona. This will bring a slight chances for showers along/south of the Rim and White Mountains with light rainfall accumulations on Friday. The second, deeper low pressure system will quickly follow behind on Saturday, following a northern path that will more directly impact our area. There is still some disagreement among ensemble guidance on the strength/trajectory of this low, and the current forecast calls for a trace-0.3 inches of additional rainfall for most of northern Arizona in this second round. However, some higher-end solutions call for localized accumulations 0.6 inches or greater. This expected to stay mostly as rainfall, though lower snow levels and some accumulations will be possible towards the higher terrain of far northern Arizona on Saturday evening. Besides the rain, expect cooler daytime temperatures and gusty winds, especially Saturday.

Sunday and onward...A brief return to ridging lead to dry conditions on Sunday. By Monday-Tuesday, we will see our next round of precipitation as another Pacific low pressure system approaches. There is plenty of spread at this point, so be sure to check back for future updates!

AVIATION...Wednesday 11/00Z through Thursday 12/00Z

VFR conditions are expected for most areas. Through 17Z, light and variable winds, generally less than 10 kts, with localized breezy northeast winds downwind of higher terrain features. Patch fog is possible in the valleys, such as the Little Colorado River Valley from 10-16Z, but impacts are expected to be localized and minimal. 17Z-0Z Light and variable winds are expected though higher terrain locations can see ENE winds around 7-11 kt.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 12/00Z through Saturday 14/00Z...VFR conditions will continue. Light north through east winds are forecast, generally 10 kts or less. Localized breezy northeast winds downwind of higher terrain features overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday

Dry weather, mild temperatures and light winds are forecast. Winds northeast to east at 5-15 mph on Wednesday, shifting to east to southeast on Thursday. Minimum RH 35-55% both days.

Friday through Sunday...Turning unsettled and cooler. Look for a chance of showers from the Mogollon Rim/White Mountains southward late Friday, spreading area wide on Saturday. Diminishing shower chances are forecast for Sunday. The snow level is expected to remain above 8,500 feet. South to southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to around 30 mph on Friday and Saturday, becoming light and variable by Sunday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.