textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect above normal temperatures to continue into Wednesday, with windy and cooler weather for Thursday. Then, less wind, but cool for Friday. The weekend will be dry, with some warming and generally light northerly winds.

DISCUSSION

Hghts will rebound a bit for the rest of today and into tomorrow, ahead of a cold front due Thursday. So, expect much lighter winds and temperatures remaining above normal, as a result.

For Thursday, southwest winds are likely to once again punch into Wind Advisory criteria ahead of a cold front. This trough, although rather deep, has a dry trajectory from the northwest and will move into a dry air mass. So, despite decent forcing and colder air, most precipitation will be near the low center, meaning northern Arizona and/or southern Utah. The front will kick off some snow showers as it crosses over the Kaibab Plateau, we have upped PoPs a bit and introduced about a half inch of snowfall, not overly impactful.

Additional energy drops into the trough position Friday, potentially forcing out a few additional flurries or rain showers, but then the energy quickly drops well to the south. Over the weekend, a cut off low forms southwest of San Diego, leaving us dry and under above normal hghts. This cut off low may eject back across Arizona by day 7 or 8, but way too early for details at this time.

AVIATION...Wednesday 04/06Z through Thursday 05/06Z

VFR conditions are expected. Winds light and variable or terrain driven through the morning becoming SW at 10-20 kts after 18Z. Locally gusty winds to 15-20 kts expected to continue through Wednesday night, mainly over and northeast of higher terrain.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 05/06Z through Saturday 07/06Z...VFR conditions are forecast. After 18Z Thursday until 00Z Saturday look for isolated showers along the Arizona/Utah border. Winds becoming SW at 20-30 kts gusting to 35-45 kts daytime Thursday then gradually diminishing Thursday night. Winds a much lighter W to NW at 5-15 kts on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday

Dry weather continues Wednesday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above average. On Thursday a low pressure system moves through which will drop temperatures down to near seasonal averages. Precipitation is generally lacking with this system but the Kaibab Plateau and areas along the Arizona Utah border could see a few isolated light rain or snow showers. A wetting amount of precipitation is not expected. Winds S-SW 5-15 mph on Wednesday, SW-W 20-30 mph, gusts to 40 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values 10-20% Wednesday, 15-35% Thursday.

Friday through Sunday..Temperatures cool to near average on Friday and Saturday before rising back up to 5-10 degrees above average on Sunday. A 10-20% chance of light rain or snow showers exists along the Arizona Utah border on Friday before dry conditions return on Saturday and Sunday. Winds W-NW 10-15 mph on Friday, NE-E 10-15 mph on Saturday, N-NE 5-10 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH values at 15-30% Friday, 10-25% Saturday and Sunday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.