textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warm and dry weather will continue through the forecast period. The warmest temperatures arrive over the coming weekend.

DISCUSSION

A decent amplitude s/wv trough currently riding over the northeast quadrant of our ridge has brought a decent amount of cloud cover the state today. This has resulted in some suppression of temperatures, especially over inverted valleys. This trough will result in some northeasterly winds for Thursday and Friday, keeping our lows down a little bit from their potential, as well as keeping inversions in the northeast valleys.

However, by this weekend, the ridge axis moves east and recenters over Arizona. This will warm most locations up considerably, even reaching 15 degrees above normal over the higher elevations. The pattern could break down a bit toward the end of the forecast period, but that idea looks iffy at best, for now.

AVIATION...Thursday 29/00Z through Friday 30/00Z

VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable or downsloping NE 10kts, gusts to 20kts off Mogollon Rim. Becoming N-NE 5-15kts after 15-18Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 30/00Z through Sunday 01/00Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Wind N-NE 5-15kts Friday, light and variable or NE downslope off the Mogollon Rim Friday night, light and variable 10kts or less on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Expect daytime highs about 5 to 10 degrees above normal each day, along with dry conditions where minimum RH values look to be 15-30%. Look for light northerly winds 5-15 mph each afternoon, then becoming light and variable overnight. Localized areas downwind of higher terrain could see NE gusts to 25 mph.

Saturday through Monday...Well above normal daytime highs and dry conditions will continue each day. Look for light and variable winds over the weekend, becoming westerly 5-10 mph on Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.