textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather and near to slightly above seasonable temperatures will continue through most of this week, with the potential for some precipitation this weekend. Winds will mainly be north to northeast during the daytime with occasional breezy conditions, mainly along and south of higher terrain.
DISCUSSION
The surface high pressure system near the Four Corners will support dry conditions, near to slightly above seasonable temperatures, and north to northeast winds across northern AZ through Thursday. Looking towards Friday and the weekend, models continue to show a cut-off low breaking off of a deepening trough off of the west coast and moving across Baja California. Model trends have backed off slightly on a more northerly track of the low across southern AZ border and still show this low weakening as it does so. The current pattern predicted by the models would support some showers, isolated thunder and the potential for gusty winds over the weekend, particularly toward the White Mountains. However, there is low confidence on this system having any more than minor impacts.
Beyond the weekend, our attention will then turn toward the deep west coast trough that originally creates the cut-off low, increasing confidence for a cooling trend and precipitation early next week. However, this is just beyond the current 7 day forecast period and confidence on any particular forecast detail for this trough is low at this time.
AVIATION...Monday 09/12Z through Tuesday 10/12Z
Expect VFR conditions and light winds.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 10/12Z through Thursday 12/12Z...Expect VFR conditions and generally light winds. A period of SCT-BKN mid- level clouds is likely Tuesday, followed by NE winds up to 10 gust 20 kts Tuesday night - Wednesday for KFLG/KSEZ/KGCN.
FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday
Dry conditions and mild temperatures will continue. Expect light north through east winds both days. Minimum RH around 25-40% each day.
Wednesday through Friday...Mild temperatures and dry conditions will continue through Friday. Expect north to northeast winds 5-15 mph Wednesday and Thursday, becoming east to southeast 5-15 mph on Friday. Minimum RH around 25-45% each day.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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