textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions forecast to continue through the week, as dry and breezy conditions persist. Afternoon temperatures will also slowly increase through the week, but remain mostly below normal for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

A large area of low pressure remains over the Pacific Northwest, allowing breezy southwest winds and dry conditions to persist across much of Arizona. Although the strongest winds are behind us, afternoon winds are forecast to be 10-20 mph with gusts near 25-35 mph for the next couple of days. Between the breezy conditions and widespread minimum RH values between 5-15%, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for this afternoon/evening for portions of east-central Arizona. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday, so a Fire Weather Watch is in place for the same locations. Pressure gradients looks to slightly loosen up Wednesday onward, after the passage of a secondary low pressure system. This will likely keep winds just under Red Flag Warning criteria, but breezy southwest conditions and widespread single digit RH values will leave our CWA in near critical fire weather conditions.

Outside of the winds and relative humidities, daytime highs will slowly increase throughout the period, although remaining below normal for this time of year for much of the work-week.

The broad trough pattern looks to break up over the weekend as high pressure gradually gains traction across the Southwest. A very weak moisture push looks to occur from this synoptic pattern change, but our confidence is low on any chances for precipitation over the weekend and into next week.

AVIATION...Monday 29/12Z through Tuesday 30/12Z

Mainly VFR conditions expected, but periods of HZ/FU possible near KFLG, KGCN, and KSEZ due to local wildfires. Light and variable winds forecast through 18Z, becoming SW at 10-20 kts afterwards. Gusts near 25-30 kts possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 30/12Z through Thursday 02/12Z...VFR conditions expected outside of periods of HZ/FU from local wildfires. Overnight winds forecast to be light and variable, becoming southwest 10-20 kts each afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Dry and breezy conditions forecast to continue through much of the week. A Red Flag Warning will go into effect at 10 AM MST today for portions of east central Arizona, and a Fire Weather Watch is valid for the same area on Tuesday. Expect minimum RH values generally between 5-15%, and afternoon winds out of the southwest at 10-20 mph. Gusts between 25- 35 mph possible.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry and breezy conditions will persist, keeping much of northern/central Arizona in near-critical fire weather conditions. Look for daily southwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting near 25 mph. Single digits minimum RH values forecast each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.