textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 5 AM MST today (Thursday), but scattered to widespread showers are still expected this afternoon, primarily along the AZ/NM border. Precipitation chances will diminish through the weekend, with the potential for more unsettled weather next week. Seasonable temperatures and breezy southwest winds will also remain in the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Light to moderate showers continue across much of our CWA. Activity will persist through the early morning hours, which falls in line with our Flash Flood Watch remaining in effect through 5 AM MST. With many locations already saturated from the wet Wednesday Arizona had, additional precipitation overnight could cause flash flooding concerns. Remember to never drive through a flooded roadway or low-water crossing.

Although our Flood Watch product expires early this AM, additional activity is expected this afternoon, primarily across eastern Arizona. Recent hi-res guidance runs suggest the White Mountains being the focal point for afternoon convection, but locations across the higher terrain will all be susceptible to isolated coverage of showers/storms.

Friday through the weekend...The low pressure system across the Pacific Northwest that's been assisting with the influx of moisture into Arizona this week is forecast to push more inland towards the upper Midwest. During this transition, shower and thunderstorm potential will become concentrated over our eastern border, before pretty much dropping off completely by Sunday. While this disturbance is pushing eastward, a weak ridge will move over Arizona, aiding in the drier conditions as well as warmer temperatures.

Next week...Another disturbance looks to quickly roll in from the West Coast, which may bring additional showers/storms mainly around Tuesday/Wednesday. Although confidence is still rather low on how next week will shake out, so check back for updates.

AVIATION...Thursday 17/12Z through Friday 18/12Z

Through 18Z, low clouds, and bands of rain showers over northeast Arizona, will bring areas of MVFR/IFR conditions at high terrain terminals including KFSX, KGCN and KSEZ. After 18Z, flight conditions will improve, but brief MVFR conditions associated with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible through 03Z Friday. Winds S to SW 10-20 kts daytime, light and variable overnight. Gusty and erratic winds in and near thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Friday 18/12Z through Sunday 20/12Z...Mostly VFR conditions with isolated SHRA/TSRA and MVFR conditions, primarily over the eastern third of the state. Winds S to SW 10-20 kts daytime, light and variable overnight. Gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast this morning, becoming more widely scattered and focused to the eastern part of the state this afternoon. There is an elevated risk of flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars continuing through this evening. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over far eastern Arizona Friday with the rest of the region drying out. Expect near to below average temperatures. Winds S-SW 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Expect gusty and erratic winds in/near storms.

Saturday through Monday...Things dry out this weekend with only the White Mountains seeing any chance of activity on Saturday. Temperatures will remain near average. Winds S-SW 5-15 mph during the daytime hours, becoming light and variable overnight.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ early this morning for AZZ004>018-037>040.