textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Summer-like high pressure will continue this week, with high temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Breezy afternoon winds and low humidity are also expected. Cooler, but still above normal temperatures, and potentially chances for showers return later this weekend.
DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday
A strong ridge of high pressure largely remains in control through the middle of the week, leading to continued well above normal afternoon highs. Dry conditions also look to remain, with the storm track well to the north.
After breezy winds today, lighter winds look to ensue on Tuesday. However, as a weak shortwave approaches Arizona on Wednesday, a return of breezy afternoon winds look to set in on Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday through Sunday...Behind the wave, the ridge weakens and becomes suppressed to the south and east. Cooler, but still above normal temperatures ensue into the weekend as a result.
Southerly flow looks to also aid in moisture advection northward into Arizona, resulting in chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms developing as early as Saturday. Better chances for more areawide showers and thunderstorms then look to develop by Sunday.
AVIATION...Monday 23/18Z through Tuesday 24/18Z
VFR conditions. Expect SW to W winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts through 02Z. Light and variable winds the remainder of the period.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 24/18Z through Thursday 26/18Z...VFR conditions are forecast. Daytime winds SW to W at 5-15 kts gusting around 20 kts, becoming light and variable each night.
FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday
Very dry with little change in record setting high temperatures. West-southwest winds 5-10 mph gusting to around 20 mph. Minimum RH 7-13% each afternoon. Thursday through Saturday...Record high temperatures continue. Daytime winds west-southwest at 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph through Friday becoming south with gust to near 30 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH values 6-13% through Friday then increasing to 10-20% on Saturday. The continuation of unseasonable heat and very dry conditions will dry out fuels with elevated fire weather conditions possible through Saturday.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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