textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Breezy and cooler weather moves in tomorrow. Along with the cooler weather there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday evening. Dry weather returns Thursday and lasts into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A few showers are developing over eastern Arizona at this time. A chance of showers and some high based thunderstorms continues from I-17 eastward through this evening after which chances drop as we lose daytime heating.

By Tuesday afternoon a stronger shortwave moves into the area, arriving ahead of schedule versus previous runs. This will kick up the southwesterly winds again but a little stronger with the pressure gradient of this system. As such a Wind Advisory has been issued from 11am to 8pm Tuesday over portions of the region. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with the best chances Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Not a big system but most of the area could see about a tenth of an inch, with a quarter to a half inch possible in the highest elevations. Despite afternoon temperatures finally cooling back down to where they should be this time of year by Wednesday, this is still a mild system so only the highest peaks will see any chance for snow and probably only a couple of inches at best.

Things dry out again as this wave pushes east on Thursday. Afternoon breezes will still be on the strong side out of the southwest. Another trough brushes by to the north on Friday and the main consequence of this feature will be a dry cold front dropping through northern Arizona ushering in some northerly breezes and some drier air with temperatures briefly dropping a couple degrees. The upcoming weekend looks relatively pleasant with a warming trend beginning Saturday, dry conditions and some afternoon breezes.

AVIATION...Tuesday 31/00Z through Wednesday 01/00Z

Expect VFR conditions and ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA through 02Z-04Z, partial clearing overnight. Sfc winds W-SW10-20g25kts through 02Z-03Z this evening and then mainly light. Sfc winds W-Sw15-25g30-40kts AFT 17Z-19Z Tuesday. Areas -TSRA/SHRA AFT 20Z-22Z Tuesday, heavier showers may produce MVFR.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/00Z through Friday 03/00Z...Areas -TSRA/SHRA through 15Z-20Z Wednesday, heavier showers may produce brief MVFR. Most places VFR by Wednesday afternoon, improvement spreading from NW to SE throughout the day. All areas VFR AFT Wednesday evening. Expect sfc winds W-SW15-25g30-35kts both days, lighter at night.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

The recent Moisture increase will combine with a passing weather disturbance to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms during the day Tuesday becoming scattered Tuesday night through midday Wednesday. Gusty winds and a few lightning strikes in the vicinity of showers/storms with local areas of wetting rain (>0.10") expected. Drying out later Wednesday afternoon. Expect southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph both days.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions return. Look for southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to around 30 mph on Thursday. Winds shift west to northwest at to 5-15 mph gusting to around 25 mph on Friday then swing north to northeast Friday night into Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ004-006-007-012-013-015-039-040.