textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures and breezy winds with slight chances for showers are expected on Wednesday. Increasing shower chances arrive for Friday with another system moving through the region early next week.

DISCUSSION

Low pressure off to our south has opened up into a wave as it pushes off to the east. Meanwhile, a low over the Pacific Ocean will gradually push into northern/central California on Wednesday with a secondary low rotating through the base of the trough. This will keep a southerly flow across the state and allow for some decent moisture advection, mainly in the mid levels, over the next couple of days. We won't see too many showers as the parent low is well away from the region but isolated to scattered rain showers can be expected across the higher terrain. Snow levels remain high so any snow showers will be confined to areas mainly above 8000 feet through Wednesday. Snow levels will start to drop on Thursday but remain around 7000 feet or higher. Breezy south to southwest winds will continue through Wednesday, diminishing on Thursday.

By Friday, the low will have moved down along the California coast and makes it move eastward through the state, exiting the area by early Saturday. Models still have some variance on how far south the low will move or if it will open up into a wave as it moves through Arizona so some of the finer details continue to remain a little muddled. However, we should have enough moisture and lift to support showers across the region, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. Rain and snow showers are expected with snow levels around 6000-7000 feet on Friday but with QPF amounts unimpressive we are still not looking at much accumulation. Snowfall amounts will mostly be a trace but some spots may see around 0.5" or so. Not a lot but at least it is something, right? Precipitation should come to end Friday night with only some lingering showers across far eastern AZ early Saturday.

A weak ridge crosses the region Saturday through Sunday with dry conditions and warming temperatures expected. A strong trough/low looks to dig down from the Pacific Northwest by late weekend and has the potential to bring more rain/snow to the area early next week. However, the models are not in agreement on the track of the system and the timing is all over the place. Plenty of time to see how this may unfold as we head into the new week. Overall, it looks like the active pattern hangs around for a little while so keep tabs on the forecast if you have any upcoming plans.

AVIATION...Wednesday 11/06Z through Thursday 12/06Z

VFR conditions are expected. Isolated rain/snow showers developing first from KGCN northward then spreading across all of northern Arizona, primarily over the higher terrain. For the remainder of tonight, southwest winds at 5-15 kts but with gust to 15-25 kts northeast of higher terrain. On Wednesday, winds becoming southwest at 10-20 kts gusting to 25-30 kts, especially during the afternoon and early evening. Winds diminishing late evening.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 12/06Z through Saturday 14/06Z...Look for mainly VFR conditions and only slight chances for rain/snow showers through 06Z Friday. After 06Z Friday, rain/snow showers increasing in coverage becoming widespread after 12Z Friday. Local MVFR conditions will be possible on Friday. Snow level generally above 6,500-7,500 feet. Winds southwest at 10-20 kts Thursday becoming northwest to north at 5-15 kts on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday.

A few isolated rain showers are possible both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. A wetting rain is not expected either day. Temperatures drop a little, but remain above 5-10 degrees above normal. Expect winds SW 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph Wednesday, SW 5-15 mph gusts to 25 mph on Thursday. Min RH values 30-55% Wednesday, 25-35% Thursday.

Friday through Monday...Colder temperatures and a better chance of rain and snow showers arrive Friday. A wetting rain is possible in some areas, but snow accumulations will be light as most of the moisture leaves the area before the colder air arrives. Drier and warmer conditions return for Saturday and Sunday. Winds NW-N 10-15 mph on Friday, SW-W 5-10 mph for Saturday, SW 15-25 mph on Sunday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.