textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warm temperatures are expected to continue through the next week. Chances for showers expected through early Friday, followed by drier conditions over the weekend. Unsettled weather returns next week as several disturbances cross the state.

DISCUSSION

Showers continue to move through the region overnight and will gradually push off to the north and east. However, plenty of moisture remains across the region and precipitation is expected to continue, especially in upslope areas through today and finally tapering off later tonight into Friday. Snow levels continue to remain high and above 9000 feet. Snow levels will start to drop tonight and fall to near 8000 feet. However, by the time we see that happen, the bulk of the moisture will have pushed away from the region and we may only see some light snow or flurries as the precipitation comes to an end.

On Friday, the remnant moisture looks to dry out fairly quickly as the trough moves to the east and as high pressure starts to build back into the region. The precipitation will taper off int eh morning with any lingering showers petering out through the afternoon. With a continued southerly flow across the area, we will have the warm temperatures hanging around through the weekend and into early next week.

By late Sunday into Monday, we start to see a shift as unsettled weather looks to return. Several disturbances will cross the state, bringing more chances for rain and snow showers. One difference next week is the trajectory of the systems, which seems to be approaching from the north/west instead of off the Pacific. This will help to bring in cooler air and will allow snow levels to lower so we may have more chances for snow than we have had with recent systems. Winter is far from over so stay tuned!

AVIATION...Thursday 01/12Z through Friday 02/12Z

MVFR to LIFR conditions (especially mountain terminals) today. Numerous rain showers likely throughout the TAF period, becoming more scattered after 00Z-06Z. Winds generally light, S-SW 5-10kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 02/12Z through Sunday 04/12Z...MVFR to LIFR conditions (especially mountain terminals) through about 18Z Friday, improving to MVFR-VFR 18Z Friday to 00Z Saturday, VFR conditions after 00Z Saturday. Scattered rain showers before 18Z Friday, diminishing to isolated showers over high terrain 18Z Friday to 00Z Saturday, becoming dry area wide after 00Z Saturday and remaining dry through 12Z Sunday. Winds SW-W 10-15kts Friday, S-SW 5-10kts Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday

Scattered to numerous mainly rain showers today. Snow levels will be high, over 10,000 feet initially, then lowering towards 8,500-9,000 feet by Friday morning. Showers begin tapering off by midday Friday with only a few isolated showers over the higher terrain Friday afternoon before clearing out completely Friday night. Best liquid accumulations expected along/west of the Mogollon Rim and Kaibab Plateau. Winds today S-SW 5-15 mph, then SW-W 5-15 mph on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Dry conditions expected on Saturday. Sunday into Monday will see a slight chance of rain and high elevation snow showers, mainly west of Interstate 17. Winds are S 5- 10 mph on Saturday, becoming S-SW 5-15 mph on Sunday and Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.