textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Windy and cooler conditions will continue through Friday with a trough over the Great Basin. Warmer conditions and lighter winds return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Temperatures will remain below average for the rest of the week as an unseasonably cold upper level low parks over Reno for the next few days. This is a little farther west than originally thought and this places some of the stronger winds a little further west tomorrow. Those western zones get close to Wind Advisory criteria but have held off issuing one for now. It will still be a breezy day across most of the area and with relative humidity levels dropping, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of northcentral Arizona for Wednesday. On Thursday the low will shift a little further southeast which will give our region another breezy day and could lead to another Red Flag Warning for portions of the region, with zones a little further east likely being added. Unfortunately the system doesn't come south far enough to really tap into any moisture so no precipitation is expected.

By Saturday the low begins to lift northeastward, dying out as it does. A ridge building over the central part of the country puts our region under a southwesterly flow aloft which will keep things dry with high temperatures warming to average this weekend, and a little above average by early next week.

AVIATION...Wednesday 27/00Z through Thursday 28/00Z

Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds S-SW10-20g25-35kts through 02Z-03Z, 10-15kts overnight. Sfc winds S-SW15-25g30-40kts AFT 15Z-17Z Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 28/00Z through Saturday 30/00Z...Expect VFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW15-25g30-40kts Thursday, decreasing by 5-10kts for Friday. Winds at night will stay elevated, but generally in the 10-15g20kt range.

FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday

Windy, dry and mild conditions. Winds south/southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% each day. Near- critical to critical fire weather conditions across portions of northeast Arizona on Wednesday with a Red Flag Warning in effect.

Friday through Sunday....Dry, breezy and warmer. Winds west/southwest at 5-15 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% on Friday, falling to 5-15% by Saturday and Sunday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday for AZZ109-112-113-140.