textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Warming temperatures and lighter winds are expected for the weekend and into next week. Dry conditions remain as well, before chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase near the middle of next week, especially across eastern Arizona.
DISCUSSION...Saturday through Monday
The upper-level low over the west the last few days begins to lift northward today. Heights begin to rise once again over Arizona as a ridge begins to gradually build over the southern Plains. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures ensue as a result for the weekend and into early next week. Lighter winds also look to return, aside from some typical afternoon breezes over the higher terrain.
Tuesday through Friday...Mild temperatures and light winds look to remain in store for much of the coming week with the ridge continuing to build. However, ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase in PWATs near the middle of next week, as moisture is advected into Arizona from the gulf to the east of Mexico.
Given the flow regime, the greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will largely be over eastern Arizona, with the White Mountains being most likely. Model soundings show a fairly dry sub- cloud layer, thus much of the activity looks to initially be high- based. Therefor, widespread wetting rains do no look likely at this time. The main threat with any storms that do develop look to mainly be gusty winds and lightning.
AVIATION...Saturday 30/12Z through Sunday 31/12Z
VFR conditions with W/SW winds 5-10 kts.
OUTLOOK...Sunday 31/12Z through Tuesday 02/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds S-W 5-10 kts on Sunday, increasing to 5-15 kts on Monday.
FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday
Dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, with minimum afternoon RH
Monday through Wednesday...Continued warm and mainly dry conditions. Slight chances for high-based showers and thunderstorms starting by Tuesday in the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Winds southwest 5- 15 mph on Monday, becoming southwest through southeast on Tuesday, then southwest again on Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on Monday, rising to 10-20% by Wednesday.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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