textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected today, outside of a slight chance for sprinkles and flurries over the higher terrain. Warmer conditions return over the weekend and into next week. Dry conditions prevail for much of the coming week, with only a slight chance for showers across central Arizona on Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION...Today

Some light showers and virga along a cold front remain over eastern Arizona early this morning, and will continue to diminish through day break.

Model soundings still show some instability going into this afternoon, which may allow for another round of isolated rain and snow showers across the higher terrain from Flagstaff northward. Any activity that does develop looks to be light, given the limited moisture in place across the region. Dry air in the sub-cloud layer will also hinder much of any potential for precipitation to reach the ground. However, this dry air will also allow for evaporative cooling to keep snow flurries possible for most of the higher terrain. Otherwise, a brief return to below normal temperatures is expected for today, along with lighter winds.

Saturday and Sunday...The trough that has been in place over Arizona begins to elongate, and become a closed-low over northern Baja over the weekend. As the low stalls out, warm air advection increases over Arizona brining a return of mild temperatures through the weekend. Dry conditions look to remain as well, given the lack of forcing and moisture across northern Arizona.

As the low slides southward, the pressure gradient will lead to breezy northeast winds early Saturday through Sunday morning. Daytime wind gusts look to be in the 20-25 mph range across the higher terrain. However, overnight drainage winds south of the Mogollon Rim and Bradshaw Mountains will be especially enhanced, with gusts upwards of 25-35 mph possible each night.

Monday through Thursday...The low eventually ejects off the Pacific and begins to propagate eastward early next week. Previous guidance had the low with a more northeasterly track, but the current trend has been further south. Thus, precipitation chances across northern Arizona have decreased considerably. The best chances will largely remain from the Mogollon Rim and southward late Monday into Tuesday, with a shallow plume of moisture and isentropic ascent moving into the region.

Heights begin to rise through the remainder of the week as high pressure once again takes control over Arizona. Warming temperatures and dry conditions return as a result, along with typical afternoon breezes.

AVIATION...Friday 06/18Z through Saturday 07/18Z

VFR conditions. ISO -SHRA/-SHSN in vicinity of KGCN/KFLG through 04Z. N-NW winds 5-10 kts, becoming N-NE 5-15 kts after 01Z. Localized gusts 20-30 kts downwind of terrain features 03Z-16Z Saturday. NE winds increase 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts after 15Z Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 07/18Z through Monday 09/18Z...VFR conditions. NE winds 10-20 kts on Saturday, becoming E-NE 5-10 kts on Sunday. Localized gusts 20-30 kts overnight downwind of terrain features 03Z-16Z Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Cool. Mainly dry conditions, outside of a slight chance of a light shower or sprinkle over the higher terrain today. Winds north/northwest 5-10 mph, becoming northeast 10-20 mph overnight and into Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Turning warmer. Mainly dry conditions on Sunday, before chances for showers increase along and south of the Mogollon Rim on Monday and Tuesday. Winds east/northeast 5-15 mph on Sunday, becoming southwest on Monday, then increasing from the west to 10-20 mph on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.