textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry, breezy, and slightly cooler conditions are forecast for this weekend, with elevated to near-critical fire weather across portions of Northern AZ. Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday

After lingering moisture brought daily showers and thunderstorms for the past week, we begin an aggressive drying trend on the periphery of an approaching trough. Dewpoints this afternoon are forecast to fall 10-20 degrees from yesterday, and PW returns to near/below-normal for June. The dry airmass will overtake from west to east, so enough moisture may linger for isolated showers along the AZ-NM border towards the early afternoon on Friday. Widespread dry conditions return for Saturday and Sunday.

Breezy conditions will accompany the drier air from the approaching trough. Expect elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions on Friday and Saturday as a result. Nighttime winds will be generally light, but remain gusty immediately downwind (northeast) of terrain features through the weekend. Also expect some slightly cooler temperatures, but not a substantial cooling trend. Daytime temperatures this weekend will land right around normal for this time of year.

Monday and onward...Ridging begins to build from the south following the troughs departure. Expect a slight warming trend to begin next week. The setup may allow for moisture to nudge back into the region, and there is moderate consensus within long range ensemble guidance that above normal PW will return by the middle of next week. The current forecast maintains a slight chance of daily showers beginning Tuesday-Wednesday and continuing thereafter.

AVIATION...Friday 19/12Z through Saturday 20/12Z

VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KSOW-KJTC line from 18Z-00Z. Winds S/SW 5-10 kts through 16Z, increasing to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts through 03Z. Winds subside to 5-10 kts thereafter, though remain elevated downwind of terrain features.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 20/12Z through Monday 22/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds S/SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts on Saturday, becoming W/SW 5-15 kts with gusts to around 20 kts on Sunday. Winds remain elevated downwind of terrain features during the overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Dry and breezy with near- normal temperatures. A lingering slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the White Mountains on Friday afternoon. Winds are west/southwest 10-20 mph gusting 20-30 mph each day, with overnight winds remaining elevated downwind of terrain features. Minimum RH is 7-15% on Friday, then 5-10% on Saturday. Near- critical fire weather conditions continue across portions of northern AZ.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and turning a bit warmer. Winds are west/southwest 10-15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Minimum RH is 4-8% Sunday and Monday, then 5-15% on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.