textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather and near to slightly above seasonable temperatures will continue through most of the upcoming week, with the potential for some precipitation next weekend. Winds will mainly be north to northeast during the daytime with occasional breezy conditions, mainly along and south of higher terrain.
DISCUSSION
The surface high pressure system near the Four Corners will support dry conditions, near to slightly above seasonable temperatures, and north to northeast winds across northern AZ through Thursday. Looking towards Friday and the weekend, models shows a cut-off low breaking off of a deepening trough off of the west coast and moving across Baja California. Model trends continue to support the recent northward track of the low across southern AZ, but still show this low weakening as it does so. The current pattern predicted by the models would support some showers and the potential for gusty winds across the northern AZ late Friday and over the weekend, but low confidence on this pattern being very impactful. This system is still around about 5 to 7 days away so for now the main action to take is to monitor future forecast trends to see if this system will become something impactful or if trends continue to support a weak cut-off low with minimal impacts.
Beyond next weekend, our attention will then turn toward the deep west coast trough that the originally created the cut-off low. However, this is beyond the current 7 day forecast period and confidence on any particular forecast for this trough is very low at this time.
AVIATION...Sunday 08/18Z through Monday 09/18Z
VFR with NE-E winds 5-15 kts. Light or terrain driven winds expected overnight.
OUTLOOK...Monday 09/18Z through Wednesday 11/18Z...VFR with daytime winds N-NE 5-15 kts each day. Light or terrain driven winds expected overnight.
FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday
Dry conditions and mild temperatures will continue. Expect light north through east winds on Monday and Tuesday. Minimum RH around 25-45% each day.
Wednesday through Friday...Mild temperatures and dry conditions will continue through Friday. Expect north to northeast winds 5-15 mph Wednesday and Thursday, becoming east to southeast 5-15 mph on Friday. Minimum RH around 25-45% each day.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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