textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warm temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and breezy afternoon winds are expected through the rest of the week. Isolated chances for showers or thunderstorms continue across the higher terrain through this evening with drier air arriving on Friday.

DISCUSSION

High pressure across the region continues to bring some drier air into the region, although moisture is slow to leave and this has resulted in daily diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms that linger today. Due to less instability from morning cloud cover, most activity has been limited so far today and confined to the White Mountains. There is still potential for a couple stronger storms this afternoon with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and small hail.

Interaction between the long wave trough across much of the United States and the ridging across the Desert Southwest will continue to result in breezy southwest winds across our area through the end of the week. While most areas will see lighter winds at night, winds will continue to remain elevated through the overnight hours for areas downwind of terrain features. Drier conditions along with the expected stronger winds across the region, will bring near- critical fire weather conditions through the rest of the week, mainly to far northern and eastern Arizona.

Heading into the weekend, a trough will approach the area, which will bring drier air and should help to cool temperatures slightly. Outside of an isolated shower on Friday over the White Mountains, the rest of the region looks to dry out enough that any chance for showers will end. Gradients don't look overly tight with this trough, but expect afternoon breezes to continue through the region. A building ridge into early next week may allow for some moisture to briefly nudge back into the region, though confidence is highest on a slight warming trend back to some of the hottest temperatures so far this year.

AVIATION...Thursday 18/18Z through Friday 19/18Z

Mainly VFR conditions. Isolated SHRA/TSRA along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line through 02Z. Erratic, gusty winds of 30-40 kts in and near TSRA. Winds S to SW 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts through 03Z. Generally light winds overnight except remain gusty just northeast of terrain features.

OUTLOOK...Friday 19/18Z through Sunday 21/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds S to SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts each day. Overnight winds generally light except remaining elevated just northeast of terrain features.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Dry and breezy with a bit cooler temperatures. There will be a lingering slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the White Mountains region on Friday. Otherwise, west to southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts 20-30 mph both days. Winds remaining elevated each night downwind of terrain features. Minimum RH around 10-20% each afternoon. Near- critical fire weather conditions will continue across northeast Arizona.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry, breezy and warm. Southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph with minimum RH values of 5- 15% each day. Near-critical fire weather conditions will continue across northeast Arizona.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ006.