textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms through the weekend/first half of next week, primarily across the higher terrain. Drier and warmer conditions may return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

A strong area of high pressure continues to linger over the Four Corners. Although the synoptic pattern would typically bring an active monsoon day, early morning cloud cover brought enough stabilization to keep things fairly quiet today. We are still expecting isolated to scattered showers throughout the afternoon and evening, primarily along the Mogollon Rim and northward. But overall should be a downturn in activity compared to yesterday.

For the weekend/early next week, the area of high pressure will wobble around the Southwest, keeping daily chances for showers/storms. Greatest coverage looks to be across the higher terrain each afternoon/evening. Outside of daily precipitation chances, daytime highs will remain above normal. In typical monsoon fashion, some days will be more active than others, but we'll have a better idea on which days those will be as we move through the period. For now, be sure to check the forecast prior to enjoying outdoor activities, and be sure to have a way to receive weather alerts.

Middle to late next week...model guidance suggests a few different solutions, but we could see a brief drying/warming trend. There could still be chances for showers/storms across the White Mountains and eastern Rim, but widespread activity doesn't look to be the case as of now. In addition, there may need to be further discussion on heat products for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon. Stay tuned.

AVIATION...Friday 21/18Z through Saturday 22/18Z

Mainly VFR, with brief periods of MFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing after 18Z and winding down by 03Z. Daytime winds southwest to northwest at 5-15 kts, light and variable overnight. Localized/brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds up to 40 kts in stronger storms.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 22/18Z through Monday 24/18Z...Scattered thunderstorm activity becomes more focused on the higher terrain areas for Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Daytime winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts. Light and variable or terrain driven winds overnight. Gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER...Rest of today through Sunday

Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening across northern Arizona with the main focus over and near the White Mountains and along and to the north of the Mogollon Rim. Stronger storms will bring hail, gusty and erratic winds, and localized heavy rainfall. Away from storms, winds look to be southwest to northwest 5-15 mph each day, becoming variable in the evening and overnight.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, becoming more isolated on Tuesday and Wednesday. Stronger storms will bring hail, gusty and erratic winds, and localized heavy rainfall. Winds southwest to west at 5-15 mph each day, with gusty and erratic winds possible near storms.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.