textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A chance of showers and thunderstorms moves in across the area Tuesday with a few showers lingering over the northeastern corner of the state into Wednesday. Fair and warmer weather returns for Thursday and the weekend.

DISCUSSION

An upper level low over California is drawing in a plume of moisture in the form of mid and high level clouds over the state at this time. A few light showers will move into southeastern Arizona this afternoon with this plume, before being drawn further northward into the White Mountains tonight and to most of northern Arizona Tuesday as the low makes its way through. As the cold core of the low moves through, there'll be enough instability for a few thunderstorms. High temperatures with the cloud cover and colder air will be about 10 degrees below average Tuesday before recovering to near average as the system begins to move east Wednesday. Snow levels will be high with this system, but a few snowflakes may mix in tomorrow morning above 7000ft with no accumulation expected outside of the highest part of the peaks. Rainfall amounts will be below a tenth of an inch in the high deserts to between a tenth and quarter inch along the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains and Chuskas. Winds will be a little lighter tomorrow versus today as the pressure gradient decreases as the system passes through.

A few lingering showers are possible in the northeast corner of Arizona as the system pulls away. By Thursday high pressure begins rebuilding into the region and high temperatures go up considerably to about 10 degrees above average by the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values will be quite low in the 7-15% range which will quickly dry out any gains we got from Tuesday's system. The saving grace will be the winds at this time look to be in the 5-15 mph range so that should keep us out of critical fire weather for now.

AVIATION...Tuesday 05/00Z through Wednesday 06/00Z

Mainly VFR tonight, then MVFR/IFR across the higher terrain after 12Z. ISO- SCT -SHRA moving from east to west after 06-09Z, then SCT -SHRA with ISO -TSRA through the rest of the period. Some -SHSN may occur at KFLG 12-18Z. S-SW winds 15-25 kts gusting to 35 kts through 03Z, then becoming 5-15 kts with localized gusts 20-25 kts overnight. Winds increase to 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts after 15Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 06/00Z through Friday 08/00Z...Periods of MVFR in -SHRA/-TSRA through 06Z Wednesday, then mainly VFR expected. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible mainly along and east of KPGA-KRQE line on Wednesday. SW-W winds 10-20 kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, becoming NW 10-20 kts on Wednesday. Winds become northerly 5-15 kts on Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday over most of northern Arizona. Shower and thunderstorm chances become confined to the northeastern corner of the state Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will generally be light although some areas over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains could see a wetting rain. Winds SW 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday, becoming NW 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH values 25-50% on Tuesday, dropping to 15-30% Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions with temperatures warming to 10 degrees above average by the weekend. Winds NW-N 5-10 mph Thursday, NW 5-15 mph Friday, W-NW 10-20 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH values 8-15% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.