textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions continue through Monday before the next storm system moves through between Monday night and Tuesday night. This will bring rain, mountain snow, breezy conditions and a few thunderstorms. The next system arrives Thursday night bringing more wind and the next chance for rain/snow.

DISCUSSION

Tonight into Monday features dry and seasonable conditions before a shortwave trough and storm system moves onshore. There is moderate confidence for some patchy fog may be possible again early Monday morning, though there will be less boundary layer moisture to work with than yesterday. The incoming system will last all day Tuesday and depart the region Wednesday morning. Current QPF amounts look close to the last storm, with upslope enhancement along the southern edge of the Mogollon Rim, San Fransisco Peaks and Kaibab Plateau. Modest instability during the day Tuesday makes for a slight chance for embedded thunderstorms with showers. With a more northerly origin from this storm, snow levels will be lower, dropping down to 6500-7000ft Tuesday night. As the snow level drop occurs later in the storm, accumulations will be light with only the Kaibab Plateau, San Francisco Peaks and highest parts of the White Mountains seeing anything over an inch. There is potential for minor impacts from a dusting of snow or icy conditions in the Flagstaff area Tuesday night. High confidence exists for windy conditions Tuesday, particularly just downslope/north of the Mogollon Rim with gusts over 35 mph common.

Wednesday will see another break with temperatures recovering to near seasonal averages before the next trough moves in Thursday afternoon and lasts into late Friday night. This is favored to be a slightly colder storm system with snow levels as low as 6000ft. The trend among ensemble models has overall been drier than Tuesday's system, though the EC suite has boosted chances in the NBM to still be around 30% for the first inch of snow for the season in Flagstaff.

AVIATION...Sunday 15/18Z through Monday 16/18Z

Mainly VFR conditions. IFR/LIFR in FG/BR at KPRC through 21Z. Variable winds 5-10 kts becoming light east to south overnight. Patchy fog possible again after 10Z, affecting KPRC/KFLG/KSEZ.

OUTLOOK...Monday 16/18Z through Wednesday 18/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions through 00Z/Tue. Showers develop late Monday and spread from west to east through Tuesday before tapering off Tuesday night. Snow levels remain above 8500 ft on Tuesday, dropping to near 7000 ft by Tuesday night. Southerly winds 5-15 kts Monday afternoon, increasing to 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday through Tuesday

Dry conditions continue through much of Monday. Rain showers with a slight chance for thunderstorms move in from west to east Monday night and mixing with snow showers on Tuesday before ending Tuesday night. Snow levels remain above 8500 feet on Tuesday, dropping to 6500-7500 feet by Tuesday night. Light snow accumulations possible, mainly above 7000 feet. Southerly winds 5-15 mph on Monday, becoming south-southwest and increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Rain/snow showers may linger across eastern Arizona Wednesday morning, otherwise expect dry conditions for Wednesday. Showers return Thursday afternoon and continue through Friday before tapering off Friday evening. Snow levels are expected to drop to 6000-7000 feet late Thursday into Friday with snow accumulations possible, mainly above 6500 feet. South winds 5- 10 mph on Wednesday, becoming south-southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph on Thursday and Friday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.