textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and windy conditions will continue through Tuesday with areas of critical fire weather. Winds begin to diminish by midweek, and daytime temperatures become above normal. Slight chance for a few showers or thunderstorms by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A longwave trough remained stationed over the western states this morning and is expected to remain in place through this evening before shifting eastward on Wednesday. The result will be more of the same today, with southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 35-45 mph, dry conditions and warm temperatures. Dry and warm conditions will continue on Wednesday but with the trough shifting eastward a bit lighter winds are in store, becoming more southwest to west at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph. The gusty winds and dry conditions will combine to produce critical fire weather conditions today with a Red Flag Warning in effect for much of northern Arizona into this evening. In addition, winds will be strong enough this afternoon for portions of the area from Flagstaff eastward for a Wind Advisory where wind gusts to 45 mph are anticipated. Near-critical fire weather conditions will continue on Wednesday but the lighter winds will fall below Red Flag Warning criteria.

For Thursday...A weak high pressure system begins to build over the southwest United States. Dry conditions will continue but winds will turn a lighter west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph with a much reduced fire weather threat. Daytime temperatures will turn slightly warmer with mild overnight temperatures.

From Friday onward..Models continue to show a weak high pressure system developing over northwest Mexico and the southwest United States. As a result, the general low-level flow looks to favor some moisture moving across Arizona from over the Gulf of California. Moisture amounts continue to look limited but likely enough for isolated thunderstorms at least through the weekend. However, when it comes to moisture from the south, thunderstorm activity over Mexico could juice-up those moisture amounts. We'll have to wait and see. The moisture increase will probably be short-lived as drier air is expected to move over our area early next week as a series of dry shortwave troughs from the north brush Arizona.

AVIATION...Tuesday 09/12Z through Wednesday 10/12Z

VFR conditions. Winds increasing to SW at 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts after 16Z, then diminishing to 5-15 kts after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 10/12Z through Friday 12/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds SW to W 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts on Wednesday, decreasing to 5-15 kts on Thursday. Winds generally subsiding to 5-10 kts each night.

FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday

Look for warm, dry and windy conditions with elevated fire weather danger. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for most of northern Arizona through this evening. Winds southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph today, then a lighter southwest to west 10-15 mph gusting 20-30 mph on Wednesday. The minimum RH forecast is 5-15% each day. hint Thursday through Saturday...Expect warm temperatures with much lighter winds. Dry on Thursday, then slight chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Winds southwest to west 5-15 mph Thursday and Friday, increasing to 10-20 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH forecast 5-15% Thursday, increasing to 10-20% on Friday and Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>107-109>117-139-140.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ010>015-039-040.