textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A weak weather disturbance will deliver cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions this weekend, along with a chance of showers tonight into Sunday. Some light snow is possible above around 6500 feet elevation. Conditions stay breezy on Monday, but warmer and drier weather will develop during the Monday through Wednesday time frame. Showers then return late next week.

DISCUSSION

A weakening low just off the central California coast this afternoon will move onshore tonight before shearing into Utah for Sunday. Moisture ahead of this trough has moved into southern California, western and central Arizona and will continue to advect ahead of a cold front due later tonight.

This front will provide enough dynamical forcing for areas of rain and snow, along with a few thunderstorms, tonight through Sunday afternoon. The best chances are closer to the front and before the parent low falls apart, basically from the Western Mogollon Rim and points north and northeast. By the time this system reaches the White Mountains, there will not be very much left.

Enough cold air exists to bring snow levels down to near 7000 feet tonight and early Sunday. However, surface temperatures hovering just above freezing and strong/gusty southwesterly winds will make accumulations very difficult. We could see an inch or two in the grass with the heavier showers, but most areas will just see a Trace or nothing.

Speaking of winds, breezy conditions this afternoon become downright windy later tonight and Sunday, associated with the front. Locations lee of higher terrain will see the worst of it. A Wind Advisory is already in effect for a large portion of our area Sunday and this looks good.

Another tough prolongs breezy weather on Monday, with some recovery and warming Tuesday and Wednesday. Farther out next week, a second and potentially wetter system could develop for Thursday and Friday. We will wait and see on that one.

AVIATION...Sunday 26/00Z through Monday 27/00Z

VFR conditions through 06Z. Mountain terminals like KFLG and KGCN will lower to MVFR and potentially even IFR between 09Z-015Z as scattered to numerous rain and snow showers move in. MVFR is possible at other terminals with heavier showers. Showers become more isolated after 15Z-18Z with isolated thunderstorms possible through 00Z. Winds S-SW 15-25kts overnight, becoming SW 20-30kts, gusts 35-45kts daytime Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Monday 27/00Z through Wednesday 29/00Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Daytime winds SW 10-20kts, gusts to 30kts Monday, SW-W 5-15kts Tuesday. Light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

A cold front will bring rain and high elevation snow showers, with isolated thunderstorms, to portions of the area through Sunday afternoon. Good chances for a wetting rainfall are forecast across the Kaibab/Coconino National Forests, as well as the mountains of the Prescott National Forecast and Navajo Nation. In addition, strong southwest winds with speeds from 20-30 mph, gusting 40-55 mph, are forecast Sunday for areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Warmer and drier weather is expected Monday, with southwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph during the afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...On Tuesday and Wednesday, expect dry weather and a warming trend. Southwest winds of 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph, are forecast for higher terrain both afternoons. On Thursday, a 20-40% chance of showers is forecast due to the passage of another low pressure system.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ009>017-039-040.