textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Expect warm weather to finish off this week and into the weekend. Winds will be much more manageable, compared to the last several days. Some moisture will arrive over the weekend, with chances for showers and thunderstorms developing. Warm and dry weather then sets up again for most of next week.
DISCUSSION
500mb hghts rebound heading into the weekend. This allows gradients to relax, allowing for warmer temperatures and less wind, when compared to the last several days. This will also allow for some sub-tropical moisture, as well as a bit of early Monsoonal moisture, to creep into our state over the weekend. Expect chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, maybe into Monday.
At the start of next week, a trough moving through the northern Rockies will sweep any moisture away from Arizona and hghts rebuild rapidly through at least Thursday. This will bring in another warm and dry spell, before slight cooling and perhaps even enhanced southwesterly winds develop just outside of this forecast period.
AVIATION...Thursday 11/18Z through Friday 12/18Z
VFR conditions. Winds are SW-W 5-15 kts, becoming light and VRB after 03Z.
OUTLOOK...Friday 12/18Z through Sunday 14/18Z...Primarily VFR conditions. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA developing along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line Saturday afternoon and evening with a slight chance of MVFR conditions. Daytime winds SW to W 5-15 kts, subsiding to 5-10 kts each night. Gusty and erratic winds will be present near showers.
FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday
Warm weather with increasing moisture. Friday will stay mostly dry, then isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-50% chance) on Saturday afternoon. Expect southwest to west winds 5-15 mph each day. Minimum RH is 8- 15% on Friday, then 10-25% on Saturday.
Sunday through Tuesday...Warm with chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday afternoon. Mostly dry conditions return by Tuesday. Winds are southwest to west at 10-20 mph on Sunday, turning west to northwest on Monday and Tuesday. Look for minimum RH of 15-25% on Sunday, decreasing to 10-20% on Monday, then 8-15% on Tuesday.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ006.
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