textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Rain and high elevation snow will continue through this afternoon, before drier conditions return for Sunday and Monday. Additional unsettled weather likely next week.

DISCUSSION

Showers are on-going, but overall accumulation amounts are still very minimal at this point. Precipitation has been more persistent across I-17 between Flagstaff and Camp Verde, but light showers are noted across central Yavapai County and the western Mogollon Rim as well. Rain and high elevation snow showers will continue through the afternoon, with a brief drying trend returning for Sunday and Monday. Intensity of showers will peak early this morning, and gradually clear west to east through the rest of the day. Snow levels are anticipated to stay above 8000' for this first round of showers, but we could see a few flurries reach down to 7000' first thing this morning. Even so, accumulation would be minimal to none.

Once these dual troughs push eastward, a ridge will briefly impact the Southwest. Daytime highs will rebound closer to seasonal norms, and dry conditions will return.

Another low pressure system will swing through the state on Tuesday/Wednesday. This next system will be on the colder side, so light snow accumulation (up to 0.05") is possible down to 7000'. And as for locations above 8000', a couple of inches of new snow accumulation may fall.

Without trying to sound like a broken record, we'll see another lull in precipitation followed by more unsettled weather to close out the end of next week. There is still uncertainty with the timing and trajectory of the storm system later next week, so continue to check back for forecast updates.

AVIATION...Saturday 14/12Z through Sunday 15/12Z

Areas of MVFR/IFR possible in low clouds/-SHRA/-SHSN, otherwise expect VFR conditions in lighter showers. Southwest winds 15-25 kts anticipated along and north of higher terrain through the period. Showers will dissipate west to east by 00Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 15/12Z through Tuesday 17/12Z...VFR conditions expected through the period. Light/variable winds on Sunday, becoming southerly winds 5-15 kts on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday

Rain and high elevation snow showers will persist through Saturday, with drier conditions returning on Sunday. Snow levels will generally be above 8000', but we cannot rule out a few flurries making it down to 7000-7500'. Look for southwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting near 30 mph on Saturday, becoming light and variable by Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...dry weather and seasonable temperatures expected on Monday, with additional showers and cooler conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow levels will be lower, with accumulating snow possible down to 6500-7000'. Light southerly winds forecast for Monday and Wednesday, with breezy southwest winds 15-25 mph on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.