textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Isolated showers or thunderstorms in northern Apache County will end early this evening, with otherwise dry conditions. Fair and much warmer weather moves in on Thursday and continues into next week.
DISCUSSION
A shortwave trough diving through southwest Colorado is bringing some isolated shower activity to northern Apache County this afternoon. Otherwise, dry and less cool conditions prevail, with breezy west to northwest winds gusting around 25 mph. Any showers in northeast Arizona will end quickly late this afternoon. Starting Thursday, high pressure will build across our region, leading to a strong warming trend that will continue well into next week. Daily high temperatures are forecast to reach 10-15 degrees above normal from Friday onward. Winds will become north/northwest Thursday and Friday, becoming more westerly by Saturday. While winds speeds will be relatively light for this time of year, gusts up to around 25 mph are still expected Friday and Saturday. As we get into early next week, much of the forecast guidance is indicating that the ridge axis will slide just east of our area, resulting in a more southerly flow and advecting in some increased mid level moisture. Daytime heating will lead to some afternoon cloud buildups over the higher terrain, with some high-based showers or thunderstorms not out of the question. Rain chances are still 15% or less for now, mainly next Tuesday and Wednesday. Again, this would be high-based activity with little rainfall but localized gusty winds.
AVIATION...Thursday 07/00Z through Friday 08/00Z
VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable overnight, except KSEZ which will see NE 10-15kts, gusts to 20kts. Daytime winds N-NE 5-15kts tomorrow.
OUTLOOK...Friday 08/00Z through Sunday 10/00Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Daytime winds NW 10-20kts Friday and Saturday, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.
FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday
Dry conditions, turning warmer. Light and variable winds on Thursday, then becoming west/northwest 5-15 mph on Friday. Minimum afternoon RH 8-15%.
Friday through Sunday...Continued warm and dry conditions. Winds west/northwest 5-15 mph on Saturday, light and variable on Sunday, then becoming southwest 5-10 mph on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 5- 15% each day.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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