textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return today, with isolated activity lingering Sunday around the Four Corners region. Gradually warmer and dry conditions set in for the first- half of next week.

DISCUSSION...Today and Sunday

A cut-off low is currently spinning over southern california this morning. This low is expected to gradually meander it's way eastward over the weekend, keeping cooler temperatures in store through Sunday. Precipitation chances also look to creep back into northern Arizona with some residual moisture still place. The best chances look to be mainly along and north of the Mogollon Rim today, with some isolated activity lingering across the Four Corners region on Sunday. While a few brief heavy downpours could be possible, much of the rainfall looks to be light. Thus, the threat for additional flash flooding looks to be minimal but the rain will certainly add to the already elevated area waterways.

Monday through Friday...As the closed-low lifts into Colorado, weak ridging, or even quasi-zonal flow looks to build into the southwest. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions look to prevail into much of next week. A deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest looks to potentially breakdown this pattern near the end of next week, however model guidance remains uncertain in the exact track of the low. Nevertheless, cooler temperatures and potentially a return of precipitation looks possible near the end of the week.

AVIATION...Saturday 24/12Z through Sunday 25/12Z

Mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA possible through 06Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty winds possible in SHRA/TSRA. MVFR conditions possible in low CIGS/BR after 06Z. Winds S/SW 5-10 kts, 10-20 kts INVOF KSJN/KJTC.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 25/12Z through Tuesday 27/12Z...MVFR conditions possible in low CIGS/BR through 16Z Sunday, and again with ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA N/E of a KPGA-KRQE line Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions with VRB winds 5-10 kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday

Cool. Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Saturday, shifting to the Four Corners on Sunday. Winds south/southwest 5-10 mph, with breezier winds of 10-20 mph across eastern Arizona. Winds becoming light and variable on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures. Winds variable 5-10 mph on Monday, becoming south/southwest for Tuesday and Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.