textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continue through Tuesday or Wednesday, before some drying develops later this week. Temperatures will remain warm, but right around normal through Wednesday, before rising to well above normal later this week and next weekend. Daytime temperatures by next weekend may the warmest so far this year.

DISCUSSION

High pressure remains centered over New Mexico for the next few days, before wandering westward later this week and into next weekend. The position of the high and southeasterly steering flow has allowed Monsoonal moisture to stay in place and current PW values have not really shown any appreciable drying trends, as of yet.

The strength of the ridge peaks today, before actually weakening ever so slightly Tuesday and Wednesday, then strengthening again as it moves westward later this week. The brief weakening of the high may allow some of the weak capping over our area to relax Tuesday and Wednesday, which may ramp up activity compared to today. As the high retrogrades later this week, we expect drier air and stronger capping to develop, which will limit activity, especially north of the I-40 corridor.

For today, we expect a similar day to Sunday. Thunderstorms will initiate over the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim and then move northwest. Outflows may push some activity off the Mogollon Rim and into eastern Yavapai County later in the afternoon. Western Yavapai County and the zones NE of the Mogollon Rim will be comparatively quiet.

As the ridge strengthens later this week, expect temperatures to rise, especially as cloud cover and rain-cooled air becomes more scarce. It is likely that temperatures will reach toward the warmest so far this year by next weekend. But, for now, we will stay free of headlines as anticipated convective activity should keep the lower elevations just under criteria for a few days.

AVIATION...Monday 27/12Z through Tuesday 28/12Z

Expect mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA from 18Z-03Z, with greatest coverage across or near higher terrain features. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds in stronger storms. Sfc winds outside of storms/outflows will be light.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 28/12Z through Thursday 30/12Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA from 18Z-03Z each day, with greatest coverage across or near higher terrain features. Storm coverage may be enhanced on Tuesday. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds in stronger storms. Sfc winds outside of storms/outflows will be light.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Storms will be most common over the higher terrain of central Arizona. Temperatures will be right around normal, a bit above normal in locations that do not receive rain. Winds will remain fairly light, trending southwesterly over higher terrain.

Wednesday through Friday...An active Monsoon pattern continues for Wednesday, but will begin to trend downward Thursday and Friday. As shower and thunderstorm coverage decreases, expect temperatures to rise above normal, possibly the warmest so far this year by the end of the week and next weekend. Winds will be generally light and variable at 5 to 15 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.