textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures and showers are expected for today as the storm system from the last couple of days departs the region. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION...Today

Our upper-level low from the past couple of days has moved eastward into New Mexico. Lingering moisture will resulting in a few scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm through this afternoon, primarily across eastern Arizona. Otherwise, drier conditions and cool temperatures will prevail across much of the area.

River flooding remains a threat along the Little Colorado River, with many gauges reaching or expected to reach minor flood stage from St. Johns to Winslow. Refer the Flood Warning bulletins for the latest information.

Thursday through Sunday...In the wake of the low, heights begin to rise across Arizona as high pressure builds back into the region. Warmer, more seasonable temperatures ensue as a result. Dry conditions also look to prevail through at least the weekend.

Monday onward...Uncertainly looks to remain in any potential moisture increase early next week. There is a potential for Hurricane Rachel to initiate a surge of sub-tropical moisture up the California Baja, however ensemble guidance does not seem too optimistic about this. While at the same time, a weak shortwave looks to move into the Great Basin.

AVIATION...Thursday 01/00Z through Friday 02/00Z

Mainly VFR expected with patchy MVFR CIGs along and east of 0V7-KPAN line through 03Z. Local MVFR or lower between 09-15Z due to fog/low CIGs. VRB winds around 5 kts, becoming E-NE 5-10 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 02/00Z through Sunday 04/00Z...VFR expected. Daytime winds E 5-10 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday through Friday

Dry weather moves in with temperatures warming back up to seasonal averages. Winds N-NE 5-10 mph Thursday, NE-E 10-15 mph Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Expect a dry weather pattern through the weekend with near average temperatures and decreasing humidity. A slight chance of showers or thunderstorms is possible over the higher terrain Monday afternoon. Expect daytime winds to be NE-E 5- 15 mph Saturday, E-SE 5-15 mph Sunday, SE-S 5-10 mph Monday. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.