textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Lingering showers, maybe even a thunderstorms over southern Navajo and Apache counties through late morning, otherwise dry. Temperatures begin to warm considerably from Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION

A weakening upper low is quickly moving through northern Mexico this morning, with pronounced subsidence now being noted northwest of a Payson to Window Rock line. Moisture to the north of the low will continue to produce rainfall over southern Navajo and Apache counties through late morning, and maybe even a thunderstorm once the sun comes up. However, by afternoon, most of our CWA will be under a strengthening ridge.

The remainder of the forecast period features well above normal hghts as a stunningly strong ridge takes over in the western United States. Expect nothing but sunshine and well above normal temperatures as a result.

AVIATION...Tuesday 10/12Z through Wednesday 11/12Z

Areas MVFR with SHRA/CIGS and ISOLD -TSRA southern Navajo and Apache counties through 18Z-20Z, otherwise VFR. Sfc winds becmg W15-25kts through 02Z Wednesday, then light.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 11/12Z through Friday 13/12Z...Expect VFR conditions and generally light winds.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Navajo and Apache counties through late morning Tuesday, otherwise dry. Westerly winds 15 to 25 mph on Tuesday, highest speeds north of I-40. Winds turn northerly Wednesday, 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry, temperatures rising to 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Light and variable winds Thursday, southwest 10 to 15 mph Friday and westerly 15 to 25 mph Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.