textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

An area of low pressure across the Western United States is keeping breezy winds and dry conditions over Arizona. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions will persist through the week. A pattern change over the weekend will lead to warmer temperatures and lighter winds, with a few showers possible in the high country by early next week.

DISCUSSION

A general troughing pattern remains over the West Coast with an embedded trough currently centered over central California. This secondary low pressure system will assist with keeping pressure gradients tight across Arizona. Strongest winds today will be Flagstaff eastward, where southwest winds 15-25 mph are possible with gusts near 30 mph. Between the elevated winds and minimum RH values below 15%, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect this afternoon and evening for east-central Arizona.

The embedded trough will open up by Wednesday and allow pressure gradients to weaken through the end of the week. As a result, winds should drop below Red Flag Warning criteria, but still remain out of the southwest around 10-15 mph. Dry conditions will also stick around for the next several days, where minimum RH values look to fall in the single digit range through at least the end of the week, maybe even the first half of the weekend. Even if Red Flag Warning criteria is not met for the second half of the week, continue to obey all fire restrictions and be fire smart!

Over the weekend/early next week, high pressure will begin to build up across the Southwest. This pattern change will initially bring lighter winds and warmer conditions, but could also lead to a slight increase in moisture. Confidence is still very low at this time, but we could see a few showers/storms across portions of the High Country by Monday/Tuesday of next week. Check back later for additional details.

AVIATION...Tuesday 30/18Z through Wednesday 01/18Z

Mainly VFR conditions, but areas of FU/HZ could cause reduced visibilities from local wildfires including near KFLG. Winds S-SW at 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts throughout the afternoon, especially along and east of a KPGA-KFLG-KPAN line. Light and variable winds return after 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/18Z through Friday 03/18Z...VFR conditions expected, but brief periods of reduced visibilities possible from FU/HZ due to local wildfires. Look for SW winds 10-20 kts each afternoon, becoming light and variable for the overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Dry and breezy conditions expected to continue. There is a Red Flag Warning for areas east of Flagstaff for this afternoon/evening, due to southwest winds forecast to be 10-25 mph gusting near 30 mph and minimum RH values below 15%. Minimum RH values look to drop to 10% or less for Wednesday, but lighter southwest winds are expected.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry and breezy conditions will continue to be the main story. Expect widespread single digit minimum RH values and southwest winds 10-20 mph for Thursday and Friday, becoming light westerly winds for Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.