textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Shower and thunderstorm activity starts to taper off today and then becomes only isolated coverage for Friday and into the weekend. Once the activity slows down, expect our daytime high temperatures to soar, likely reaching the warmest readings so far this year.

DISCUSSION

The high to our east begins to move westward and strengthen today and through the weekend. This slowly introduces drier, mid-level air and subsidence, activity will slow down. We don't expect a total stop, but it will be slow through the weekend. The high may return to a more favorable location by next week, with easterly steering flow returning, but much can change in a week and we will see.

Additionally, once the high relocates and strengthens, along with the Monsoon pause/slow down, temperatures will soar. We expect many areas to reach the warmest readings so far this year. The various heat products that have been issued remain appropriate.

AVIATION...Thursday 30/12Z through Friday 31/12Z

Expect mainly VFR conditions. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA possible 19Z to 03Z, mainly INVOF the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Brief MVFR and gusty outflow winds of 35-45kts possible near any thunderstorms. Sfc winds outside of storms W-SW5-15kts, in the daytime.

OUTLOOK...Friday 31/12Z through Sunday 02/12Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA each afternoon/evening, with the best chances INVOF the White Mtns. Brief MVFR and gusty outflow winds of 35-45kts possible near any thunderstorms. Sfc winds outside of storms VRB5-15kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday, primarily along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Activity tapers off even more on Friday, mainly confined to the White Mountains. Expect mainly light winds outside of thunderstorms, but trending toward westerly through southwesterly 5 to 15 mph over higher terrain in the afternoon hours. Temperatures begin a sharp climb to above normal starting on Thursday. Relative humidity values will fall a bit each day, as the air mass starts to dry out.

Saturday through Monday...A continued downturn in Monsoonal activity is expected. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible over higher terrain, but mainly the White Mountains region. Daytime temperatures rise significantly and relative humidity values will continue to fall. Many areas will see the warmest conditions so far this year. Winds generally light and variable at 5 to 15 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Friday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005-038, as well as AZZ018-037 below 4000 feet.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006 below 4000 feet.