textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect an active Monsoon pattern today, likely extending into the night as deep moisture moves across the region. Activity tapers off a bit for Saturday, but daily chances continue through the weekend and into at least early next week, as favorable flow and moisture patterns continue.

DISCUSSION

Moisture values rose dramatically overnight as a series of weak s/wvs, located well to our north, induced a surge over the southern deserts. The 18Z sounding from KFGZ indicated robust moisture and instability values, along with some shear. We expect a very active day as a result. Back-building storms may prolong the activity well into the night, especially south and east of Flagstaff.

In the wake of the convection today and tonight, we expect a quiet start for Saturday, due to debris cloud and cooler temperatures. However, convection south of our CWA SAturday may push into the area Saturday evening, mainly the southern and southeastern zones.

This pattern continues off and on for the reminder of the forecast period. Occasional surges of moisture and s/wvs to our north will basically alternate active and suppressed days through next Friday.

AVIATION...Friday 11/18Z through Saturday 12/18Z

Mainly VFR conditions, MVFR possible near heavier showers or thunderstorms. Scattered showers will develop between 12Z-18Z over areas north of Interstate 40. Scattered thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon, likely continuing well into the evening or overnight. Stronger storms this afternoon and evening may contain hail and gusty/erratic winds to 40 kts. Winds SW-W 10-20kts with gusts to 25kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds possible near thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 12/18Z through Monday 14/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions, brief MVFR near heavier thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over primarily the higher terrain between 18Z and 03Z each afternoon. Winds SW-W 10-20kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday

Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue, but will likely not be as active as Friday. Storms will favor the central and east-central portions of the district, but will not be solely limited to those areas. Expect daily southwest winds 10 to 20 mph and daytime temperatures around normal.

Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue, especially Monday and Tuesday. Expect afternoon southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to near 25 mph each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.