textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Cooler, but still above normal temperatures can be expected today and Monday northeast of the Mogollon Rim. Other locations will see little to no change as northerly winds develop. By Tuesday onward, it will feel like summer, as unprecedented heat takes over the region. Take the appropriate precautions if you are planning on traveling, exercising, recreating or working outdoors over the next week.

DISCUSSION

A s/wv diving across the Rockies and into the central plains this morning will reinforce northerly gradients today. The cold front associated with the trough will brush the Four Corners area, bringing several degrees of cooling for today and Monday. Areas south and west of the Mogollon Rim will see temperatures remain about the same.

As early as Tuesday, the strong ridge that has been offshore will move into Arizona from about Wednesday through Sunday. This is a very strong ridge and the region will likely experience the warmest temperatures ever seen in March by Thursday. Expect numerous daily and all time records later next week, it will feel like summer.

This highly amplified pattern may break down late in the forecast period, but we will still be dry and we will still have above normal temperatures.

AVIATION...Sunday 15/12Z through Monday 16/12Z

Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds NW-NE10-20kts AFT 17Z-19Z, otherwise light. NE drainage winds from 10-25kts will develop Sunday night along and just SW of higher terrain features. This includes terminal KSEZ.

OUTLOOK...Monday 16/12Z through Wednesday 18/12Z...Expect VFR conditions, with daily sfc winds NW-NE winds 5-15kts. NE drainage winds from 10-20kts will develop again Monday night along and just SW of higher terrain features. This includes terminal KSEZ.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Dry, warm and breezy weather continues. Temperatures northeast of the Mogollon Rim will cool compared to the last few days, but still remain above normal. Expect north to northwest winds 10 to 20 mph on Sunday, with gusts as high as 30 mph along the New Mexico border. Winds on Monday becoming north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Tuesday through Thursday...Very dry, daytime temperatures reaching 20 to 30 degrees above normal. Temperatures will likely set daily and all-time (for March) records during this period. Winds will be north to northeast 10 to 15 mph Tuesday and Wednesday, then variable and generally light by Thursday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.