textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures. Warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions return for next week, with isolated chances for showers across the higher terrain each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Increased moisture will remain across the region through today bringing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. With skies having cleared out after yesterdays storms, activity should start to develop by late morning/early afternoon. PWATs are around 0.5-1.0" across much of the region so expect any storms that develop to be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Additionally, gusty outflow winds and lightning will continue to be hazards through this evening. Once the sun sets, we should see the activity wane across the forecast area.

As we head into tonight, the moisture will start to diminish as dry air begins to push into the region. The dry air won't fully erode the moist conditions in place, displacing the moisture off to the south through the week. While much of the area will dry out this week, there will remain chances for some showers, mainly across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Coverage looks to be isolated at best but we will continue to appreciate any moisture that we can get. Another aspect of the coming week will be the increasing daytime temperatures as warmer air settles into the region with more typical afternoon breezes each day.

AVIATION...Sunday 14/06Z through Monday 15/06Z

Expect mainly VFR conditions. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA develop again after 17Z Sunday and continue through around 03Z. Storms may produce brief MVFR and erratic winds gusting 30-40 kts. Sfc winds outside of storms will be west-southwesterly and generally 10-15kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 15/06Z through Wednesday 17/06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA redevelop again Monday after 17Z and continue through early evening, mainly south of a KGCN- KRQE line. Any storms could produce brief MVFR and erratic winds 30-40 kts. Sfc winds outside of storms will be southwesterly and generally 10-15 kts. Drier on Tuesday with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA confined to areas south of a KPAN-KSJN line.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, then becoming isolated on Monday. Any storms that develop are capable of producing wetting rains and gusty, erratic winds that may reach 30 to 40 mph. Outside of storms, expect southwesterly winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the White Mountains each afternoon. Otherwise, expect warmer and mostly dry conditions to return. Westerly winds 10 to 20 mph on Tuesday, then becoming southwesterly 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph for Wednesday and Thursday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.