textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions continue through Wednesday. Chances for light showers and cooler temperatures set in on Thursday and Friday. High pressure builds into Arizona over the weekend, ushering in a return of warmer temperatures and dry conditions.

DISCUSSION...Today and Wednesday

Zonal flow will keep slightly cooler than normal temperatures and typical afternoon breezes in the forecast through Wednesday. Dry conditions also look to prevail, with dry air largely remaining in place across Arizona.

Thursday and Friday...A trough looks to move across northern Mexico on Thursday, which looks to lead to a subtle moisture increase on Thursday. However, given that much of the large-scale dynamics will be limited to the southern portions of the state, precipitation chances remain slim overall for northern Arizona. A weak shortwave looks to approach from the north later in the day from the north, which may lead to a slight uptick in precipitation chances later in the day. Nevertheless, any activity that does develop will be isolated in nature and light.

Better chances ensue Friday afternoon, especially over the higher terrain as the aforementioned shortwave moves overhead. However, as previously mentioned, limited moisture (especially at the surface) will keep coverage mainly isolated.

Behind the shortwave, winds quickly shift around to the north and northeast on Friday with the passage of the front. While winds for the duration of the period look to remain fairly light, locally gusty winds do look to develop behind the front. This will be especially true for areas downwind (southwest) of the higher terrain Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday through Monday...High pressure looks to build over Arizona for the weekend, leading to a return of warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Light winds look to prevail for much of the weekend as well, aside from locally breezy northeasterly winds during the overnight hours.

Guidance signals towards the potential for a cut-off low developing off the California Coast early next week, and ejecting off the Pacific as early as Monday. Should this trend continue, unsettled conditions could return early next week, with gusty winds and cooler temperatures looking probable.

AVIATION...Tuesday 28/06Z through Wednesday 29/06Z

VFR conditions. Winds light and variable through 17Z. After 17Z, winds increasing to SW at 5-15 kts gusting to 25 kts through 02Z, then diminishing to light and variable.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 29/06Z through Friday 01/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions are forecast. Look for a 10-20% chance of showers after 00Z Thursday, increasing to 20-40% after 12Z Thursday. Daytime winds SW-W at 5-15 kts gusting to 25 kts Wednesday then becoming W-NW at 5-15 kts on Thursday. Winds light and variable overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday

Dry conditions with seasonably cool temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-10 mph today, increasing to 10-15 mph on Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-15% each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Remaining cool. Slight chance for light high-based showers Thursday and Friday, turning dry on Saturday. Best chances for precipitation are across eastern and central Arizona. Winds west/northwest 5-10 mph on Thursday, becoming northwest through northeast 10-15 mph on Friday. Winds becoming light and variable on Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-30% Thursday and Friday, falling to 10-25% on Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.