textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Slighty cooler, but still warm and continued dry conditions remain through the middle of this week. Windier conditions return on Thursday ahead of an approaching storm system that'll bring a brief cool down and a slight chance for precipitation to far northern Arizona.

DISCUSSION

Quasi-zonal flow is in place across Arizona as a weak shortwave moves through the Rockies. With the suppressed heights, temperatures look to fall over the next couple of days, but still look to remain above normal for this time of year.

On Thursday, a stronger trough looks to move into the west, grazing Arizona just to the north. Winds look to increase across the high country once again, with gusts 35-45 mph probable along and downwind of the higher terrain. Moisture does look to increase a bit with the trough, however the greatest chance for precipitation looks to be limited to only the higher terrain of far northern Arizona. Even if showers develop, any activity will be light with wetting rainfall unlikely.

A secondary trough looks to drop southward on Friday and eventually become a closed-low just off the Baja coast over the weekend. Cooler and breezy conditions look to remain initially on Friday. By the weekend, strong southerly flow increases both moisture and warm air advection into Arizona, leading to warming temperatures and chances for rain by Sunday and into the start of next week. That said, moisture and forcing across northern Arizona look to remain weak, keeping overall QPF amounts low during this time frame based on the latest guidance from much of the EPS, GEFS, and CMCE. The best shot looks to be once the low inevitably ejects off the Pacific, but confidence in the exact timing of this low at this point.

AVIATION...Tuesday 03/12Z through Wednesday 04/12Z

VFR conditions. Variable winds at 5-15 kts for most areas during daytime hours, decreasing to under 10 kts overnight. South of a KSOW-KSJN line, winds today SW-W 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 04/12Z through Friday 06/12Z...VFR conditions most areas, with localized MVFR in scattered -SHRA/-SHSN after 18Z Thursday mainly along/north of a KGCN-KPGA line. Daytime winds SW at 10-20 kts Wednesday increasing to 15-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts on Thursday. Winds generally light and variable overnight periods but are forecast to remain gusty Thursday evening.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday

Dry weather and mild temperatures continue with highs 5 to 10 degrees above average. Winds west through north 5-15 mph today, becoming S-SW 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH values 10-20%.

Thursday through Saturday..Temperatures cool to near average as low pressure moves through. The low also brings a 10-20% chance of light showers along the Arizona Utah border Thursday and Friday. Winds SW- W 20-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph Thursday, W-NW 10-15 mph on Friday, NE-E 10-15 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH values at 15-30%.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.