textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mostly dry and mild conditions expected through the weekend, with a slight chance of showers across eastern Arizona. Unsettled and cooler weather looks to return early next week.

DISCUSSION

A low will pass well to our south this evening, which will keep us dry. There may be a few isolated showers that find their way near the White Mountains but for the most part expect the dry conditions to continue.

A weak shortwave will cross through northern and northeast Arizona on Friday, gradually pushing into New Mexico on Saturday. This wave will allow temperatures to become slightly cooler and with limited moisture only some isolated showers may occur late Friday and Saturday. Any shower activity looks to be confined to Apache County and mainly across the higher terrain. Dry air will then quickly move into the region with everywhere drying out by Saturday evening.

A weak ridge will then move across the region on Sunday as a closed Pacific low starts to move into southern California. The gradient will tighten up and we will start to see an increase in south- southwest winds on Sunday and Monday. Additionally, the southerly flow will be able to tap into a better moisture pool, which may help bring more showers to the region on Sunday. Models seem to agree that the low will flatten a bit on Monday before deepening and pushing inland and across Arizona. The details are still a bit muddled this far out but the weather looks to be cooling off and remaining unsettled through the middle of the week.

AVIATION...Thursday 30/18Z through Friday 01/18Z

VFR conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA near the White Mountains after 00Z. Winds W-NW 5-10kts this afternoon, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. N-NE 5-10kts Friday morning.

OUTLOOK...Friday 01/18Z through Sunday 03/18Z...VFR conditions, isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along the Arizona/New Mexico region Friday afternoon, isolated -SHRA/-TSRA in the White Mountains region Saturday afternoon. Winds NW-NE 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts Friday afternoon, SE-S 5-15kts Saturday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Mild and mainly dry conditions, outside of a slight chance for showers or dry thunderstorms across eastern Arizona on Friday and the White mountains Saturday. A wetting rain is not expected. Winds NW-NE 10- 15 mph on Friday, SE-S 5-15 mph on Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 10- 20% Friday, 10-25% Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Sunday will see temperatures about 5 degrees above average, but an unsettled pattern moves in Sunday afternoon through Tuesday dropping temperatures back to or slightly below seasonal averages. There will be a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms from the Mogollon Rim northward Sunday and Tuesday afternoons while Monday afternoon is expected to be dry. Winds S-SW 10-20 mph on Sunday, S-SW 15-25 mph on Monday and SW 10-20 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-30% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.