textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect active Monsoon conditions this week, along with cooler daytime temperatures. A break in the monsoon or low grade monsoon conditions are possible this weekend as a West Coast trough approaches the region.

DISCUSSION

High pressure centered over the Four Corners will begin moving east later this week. A high amount of moisture sits over the state at this time which will lead to numerous showers and storms during both the day and nighttime hours. Steering flow this afternoon will be off to the northwest, but as the high shifts further east storm motion will be towards the north or northeast on Wednesday. As soils become more saturated as the week progresses, flash flooding will definitely be a concern across the region.

Big wild card in the forecast for late this week and into the weekend will be an approaching trough coming in off the West Coast which could bring some drier air into the region. Depending on how far south the trough digs will be the determination on whether or not we get a brief break in the monsoon or no break at all. Compared to yesterday's model run, it looks like the trough may give the area a brief pause in the monsoon on Saturday with only the White Mountains seeing any good POPS. Sunday and Monday brings a wetter solution with POPs returning across the Rim versus remaining dry like in the previous run. Will keep an eye on things and see what happens.

AVIATION...Wednesday 12/00Z through Thursday 13/00Z

SCT SHRA/TSRA through 06Z-09Z, then re-developing again after 19Z. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty outflow winds possible in and around +TS. Otherwise, VFR conditions with light and VRB winds overnight, becoming W/SW 5-15 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 13/00Z through Saturday 15/00Z...Daily chances for SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA each day from 19Z-03Z, especially over the higher terrain. Otherwise, VFR conditions with daytime winds W/SW 5- 15 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday

Daytime max temps will be below normal as we expect active Monsoon conditions each day, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, first developing over the higher terrain. Stronger storms may contain heavy rain, hail, and gusty/erratic winds. Outside of thunderstorms, expect generally light winds.

Friday through Sunday...Active conditions continue Thursday with a brief period of drying possible by Friday or Saturday and continuing into Sunday. Daytime temperatures will continue to be below normal through Friday, with a slight rebound this weekend. outside of storms, expect southwesterly winds at 10 to 15 mph each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.