textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, along with warming temperatures are expected through early next week.

DISCUSSION

A trough remained centered off the California coast with high pressure centered over Arkansas/Louisiana Saturday afternoon. The southerly flow between these two pressure systems continued to pull monsoon moisture northward but with the slight westward shift of the high center over the past 24 hours the bulk of the deeper moisture is being directed up the Lower Colorado Valley into southern Nevada. The nudging of the high center toward Arizona has also brought some subsidence aloft with a capping/stabilizing layer in the mid-levels.

For tonight...A few showers and thunderstorms could linger into the early evening hours but after that we are anticipating a complete shutdown as subsidence and further stabilization occurs.

From Sunday into Tuesday...The high pressure center gradually builds from over the southern United States to over Arizona. Monsoon moisture will remain at the lower limits for activity for most of the area as well as a capping layer aloft adding further stabilization. As a result, most of northern Arizona will see only isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms through the period. The exception, moisture values will remain just high enough over the high terrain of far eastern Arizona for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily the White Mountains region. Otherwise, look for warmer temperatures and light winds under the influence of the building high.

Looking further out...It appears active monsoon weather will be on the increase as the high pressure center finds it's way to the Four Corners region, opening the door to increasing monsoon moisture.

AVIATION...Sunday 16/00Z through Monday 17/00Z

Mostly VFR conditions, with MVFR possible near isolated showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms should be ending around 03Z. Tomorrow's shower/storm coverage remained limited to the higher terrain, with the best chances around the White Mountains, with storms beginning around 18-22Z. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, with SW-W 5-15 kts daytime Sunday. Gusty and erratic winds near storms.

OUTLOOK...Monday 17/00Z through Wednesday 19/00Z...VFR conditions, MVFR possible near heavier storms. Chance of isolated showers/storms over higher terrain between 18Z-03Z each afternoon. Winds SW-W 5-15 kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds near storms.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Gradually turning warmer. Isolated showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly over the higher terrain. Coverage of storms increases over the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim on Monday. Outside of storms, winds are generally light and variable at 10 mph or less.

Tuesday through Thursday...Continued warmer temperatures. Isolated showers in the White Mountains on Tuesday, with coverage increasing and spreading westward on Wednesday and Thursday. Outside of storms, winds are generally southwest through west 5-10 mph each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.