textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry, breezy, and cooling conditions expected through the end of the week. Unsettled weather with slight chances for showers will return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

The strong Pacific low that brought strong southwest winds to the region has shifted to the east across the northern Rockies. As the low lifts a bit more to the north, the flow will turn more westerly. However, the gradient will remain sufficiently tight that we will continue to see breezy conditions through the end of the week. Expect daytime southwest to west winds around 20-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph today and Friday. RH values are between 10-20% this afternoon and with the strongest winds across the eastern Little Colorado River Valley, there will be near-critical fire weather concerns there, mainly right along the NM border. Temperatures will be near to slightly below average today, returning to near to slightly above average on Friday. A weak shortwave will pass through on Friday but other than an increase in cloud cover, it will be uneventful.

The weekend continues to look unsettled as several shortwaves move through the region. Moisture increases on Saturday with some slight chances for high-based showers arriving by Saturday afternoon with chances continuing through. As the waves move through the region Saturday night and Sunday. Models keep increasing the moisture with each subsequent run but confidence still remains low as to just how much we will see across the area. Therefore, you should expect increasing cloudiness over the weekend with some chances for showers through Sunday and then again around midweek. Temperatures will cool, dropping 5-15 degrees below average by Sunday and then warming to near average again early next week. Expect breezy afternoons to continue over the weekend and through much of next week.

AVIATION...Thursday 23/06Z through Friday 24/06Z

VFR conditions. Overnight winds are W/SW 5-15 kts. Winds increase to 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts after 18Z, diminishing after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 24/06Z through Sunday 26/06Z...Mostly VFR conditions, with a slight chance for showers after 18Z Saturday. Winds are W/SW 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts on Friday, then SW 10-20 kts gusting 25-35 kts on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday

Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures. West to southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 10-20%. Near- critical fire weather concerns across the eastern Little Colorado River Valley for Thursday and Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly dry conditions with chances for high-based showers late Saturday and Sunday. Southwest winds at 15- 25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph over the weekend, subsiding to 10-20 mph on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-30% for the weekend, falling to 10-20% on Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.