textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue through much of the coming week. A slight chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms develops for Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly over the higher terrain.

DISCUSSION

High pressure largely remains in control over Arizona through the first part of the coming week. Near steady, seasonable temperatures are expected as a result, along with dry conditions. Breezy easterly winds today look to give way to calmer winds for Monday and Tuesday.

By the middle of the week, weak troughing will allow for moisture to be gradually advected northward into part of northern Arizona. Cooler temperatures aloft will also yield modest lapse-rates in the lower levels. As a result, a few isolated high-based showers and potentially a thunderstorm will be possible during the afternoon hours Tuesday and Wednesday. The greatest chances look to mainly be over the higher terrain, from the Kaibab Plateau and western Mogollon Rim on Tuesday, to eastern eastern on Wednesday.

An upper-level low looks to dive southward off the California coast late in the forecast period. As this occurs, moisture from Hurricane Rachel is potentially pulled northward into the southwest. As a result, cooler temperatures and potentially a return of more unsettled conditions is possible near the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty remains high with this, thus confidence in any exact details remains low.

AVIATION...Sunday 04/18Z through Monday 05/18Z

Expect VFR conditions. Winds E to SE 10-20 kts gusting to 25 kts through 02Z, then becoming light.

OUTLOOK...Monday 05/18Z through Wednesday 07/18Z...Expect VFR conditions. Surface winds from the NE through SE 5-15 kts gusting 20 kts daytime Monday, then becoming variable 5-15 kts the remainder of the period.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Expect dry conditions with seasonably warm temperatures. Daytime winds east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph gusting to 20 mph on Monday, then becoming light and variable at 5 to 15 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly dry conditions with continued seasonable temperatures. A slight chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms develops by Wednesday, especially over the higher terrain. Daytime winds on Wednesday and Thursday generally northeast through southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming southerly on Friday in response to a weather disturbance approaching from the west.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.