textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Outside of isolated showers across the Arizona Utah border today, above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will persist. Additional showers possible on Friday, before a brief ridge builds over the weekend. More unsettled weather looks to return next week.

DISCUSSION

A few light showers are noted across the Four Corners currently (1:30 AM MST), but otherwise it's a quiet night across northern Arizona. Relatively dry conditions and above normal temperatures are in store for your Thursday, but we can't rule out a few stray showers along the AZ/UT border throughout the day. This precursor of moisture is from a low pressure system centered over California. There will be better chances for rain and high elevation snow on Friday as this disturbance pushes more inland towards Arizona. Manual edits were made to the default NBM PoPs because there are still inconsistencies with recent deterministic runs on how much precipitation our CWA will see out of this passing system. Where the forecast currently sits, the highest points of the White Mountains and San Francisco Peak could see 4-8 inches of new snowfall and a light dusting possible down to 7500'.

Over the weekend a ridge will move over much of the western US. This will allow daytime highs to rebound to near 5-15 degrees above normal and dry conditions to settle in. This pattern will be short-lived as model guidance suggests more unsettled weather returning for portions of next week.

A series of shortwaves from a larger low pressure system are forecast to impact northern Arizona beginning as early as Monday evening. Although model guidance is in agreement with a pattern shift arriving, there is still plenty of disagreement with the timing/trajectory of any of these shortwaves. Our confidence is low in regards to specific snow/rain amounts for next week, but gusty southwest winds and cooler daytime highs are likely. Check back later for more details.

AVIATION...Thursday 12/18Z through Friday 13/18Z

Expect primarily VFR conditions through 12Z Friday. Areas BKN-OVC CIGS 5-10kft AGL and isolated -SHRA primarily NW of terminal KFLG through 08Z-12Z Friday, then areas MVFR/IFR in -SHRA/-SHSN developing by 18Z. Daytime sfc winds S-SW5-15kts, otherwise light.

OUTLOOK...Friday 13/18Z through Sunday 15/18Z...Areas of MVFR/IFR in -SHRA/-SHSN and CIGS through Friday evening, ending from west to east overnight. Otherwise, VFR. Light winds Friday becoming W-NW 5-15kts on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Above normal temperatures continue on Thursday, with partly cloudy skies. Chances for rain and snow showers develop over the Kaibab Plateau Thursday afternoon and then spread southeast Thursday night and increasing on Friday. Much colder temperatures Friday, with widespread rain and snow showers. Precipitation amounts are not very high, most areas seeing just a few hundredths, to a few tenths at most. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph Thursday, becoming light and variable Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Dry and warmer over the weekend, with temperatures returning to above normal readings. Chances for rain and snow showers return by late Monday. West through northwest winds 5 to 15 mph Saturday, becoming southwest 10 to 20 mph on Sunday and then southwest 20 to 40 mph on Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.