textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend, with strong gusty winds and dry conditions. Lighter, but still breezy conditions continue into next week, with near-critical fire weather conditions persisting.

DISCUSSION...Today and Sunday

A strong trough over the western US will bring a period of strong, gusty winds to much of northern Arizona this weekend. Peak wind gusts upwards of 45-55 mph seem likely for most, with some locally gustier winds possible downwind of terrain features. Winds look to subside some on Sunday as the trough begins to lift, but still remain in the 40-50 mph range. While winds may relax some overnight tonight into Sunday morning, they will likely remain more elevated than usual still, especially downwind of the terrain. A Wind Advisory is in effect through Sunday for much of northern Arizona.

Additionally, the combination of gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather conditions across all of central and northern Arizona this weekend. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect through Sunday. Do your part: No open flames or sparks, keep vehicles off of dry grass, properly dispose of cigarette butts, and avoid power equipment that creates sparks. One less spark, one less wildfire.

Monday through Friday...Breezy conditions remain on Monday as a fast moving shortwave moves through Nevada. Wind gusts look to primarily be in the 25-35 mph range, with the strongest gusts expected along and downwind of the Mogollon Rim into the Little Colorado River Valley. Given the still very dry conditions, additional red flag headlines may be needed in the LCR on Monday.

Gradually warming temperatures look to prevail through the rest of the coming week. Winds will also still remain breezy, with a trough still in place over the western US.

AVIATION...Saturday 27/12Z through Sunday 28/12Z

VFR conditions. Occasional FU/HZ possible near KFLG. Winds S 10-15 kts, becoming S/SW 20-30 kts with gusts 35-45 kts after 16Z. Localized gusts in excess of 50 kts possible downwind of terrain in the afternoon. Winds subside to 10-20 kts after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 28/12Z through Tuesday 30/12Z...VFR conditions. Occasional FU/HZ possible near KFLG. Winds S/SW 20-30 kts with gusts 35-45 kts on Sunday, subsiding to 10-20 kts on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday

Widespread critical fire weather conditions this weekend, a Red Flag Warning is in effect through Sunday. Southwest winds 25-35 mph with gusts 45-55 mph each day, remaining elevated through the overnight especially downwind of the terrain. Minimum afternoon RH 8-15% each day for most, nearing 10- 20% in the White Mountains.

Monday through Wednesday...Continued warm and dry conditions. Lower, but still breezy winds are expected, with daytime southwest winds from 15-25 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ104>118- 137>140.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ004>016- 039-040.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ038.