textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

An area of low pressure across the western United States is keeping breezy winds and dry conditions over Arizona. Near-critical fire weather conditions will persist through Friday. A pattern change over the holiday weekend will lead to warmer temperatures and lighter winds. A few showers or thunderstorms possible in the high country by early next week.

DISCUSSION

A shortwave moving eastward through the larger western US trough is passing through our area today, with the disturbance lifting into Colorado this afternoon. This has kept southwest winds on the gusty side, especially from around Flagstaff eastward where the stronger winds aloft are. Gusts in the 30-40 mph range have been common. With the trough in the area, temperatures have continued to be 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Humidities will drop to 6-15% this afternoon, and a Red Flag Warning continues from the eastern Mogollon Rim/White Mountains north into the Little Colorado River valley until 7 PM MST. Wednesday through Friday - the trough remains over the western US, but begins to retreat toward the end of the week as high pressure builds in from the southeast. Southwest winds will stay breezy, in the 10-20 mph range with gusts generally 25-30 mph. Very low daytime humidities under 10% will keep elevated fire weather conditions across the region. By the holiday weekend - high pressure will continue to build in from the southeast, leading to warmer temperatures at or just above normal. Winds will also decrease as the high moves into the region, likely some of the lighter winds we have seen in well over a week. By early next week, the flow is becoming more favorable for an increase in moisture from the south. Ensemble mean precipitable water values continue to trend upward during this time, at least getting up toward normal values for early July. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are in the latest forecasts for the high country Mon/Tue, with scattered coverage possible around the White Mountains. The latest precipitation outlooks for the 8-14 day period from the NWS Climate Prediction Center are leaning above normal, so we could be seeing signs of the monsoon picking back up, stay tuned.

AVIATION...Wednesday 01/00Z through Thursday 02/00Z

Mainly VFR conditions, except for smoke plumes due to wildfires. Localized MVFR/IFR conditions possible in these plumes, including terminal KFLG. Sfc winds S-SW10-20g25-30kts through 02Z-03Z Wednesday, then becoming 5-15kts overnight. Sfc winds increase again late Wednesday morning, becoming S-SW10-20g25-30kts by Wednesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 02/00Z through Saturday 04/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Smoke plumes due to wildfires may produce localized MVFR/IFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-15g20-25kts with generally light winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday

Dry and breezy conditions expected to continue. Winds SW 10-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH values in the afternoon at 5-10%.

Friday through Sunday...Dry and breezy conditions through the time period with no precipitation expected. Winds SW 10-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph for Friday, SW-W 5-10 mph Saturday and Sunday. Min RH values 5-10% Friday, 7-12% Saturday, 9-15% Sunday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.