textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Chances for showers return later this afternoon, primarily along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Coverage for precipitation will increase on Saturday, before another drying trend settles in Sunday and Monday. Additional unsettled weather likely throughout next week, where lower snow levels will be possible.

DISCUSSION

The area of high pressure that's been driving our warm/calm weather the last few days is finally pushing eastward, with dual low pressure systems following right behind. The first shortwave will dive south of Arizona, keeping precipitation chances limited to the southern portion of our CWA. The second low pressure system will follow immediately behind and increase coverage for showers on Saturday. With the elevated saturation from the first trough, there should be sufficient moisture to have a rainy/snowy day across much of central/northern Arizona. Snow levels on Saturday will remain mostly above 8000', allowing areas such as the Kaibab Plateau, San Fransisco Peaks, and White Mountains to see an inch or so of snow accumulation. Lower elevation location are anticipated to see up to 0.25" of rainfall.

By the time Sunday rolls around, another ridge will set-up across the Southwest. This pattern will be short-lived, but it will be around long enough for temperatures to crawl back to seasonal norms and for drier conditions to settle in.

We'll remain in an active pattern through the foreseeable future, with another storm system looking to impact the region by Tuesday. This next disturbance appears to be colder and stronger, so we may see light snow accumulation down to 6500-7000'. Shouldn't be enough to cause many impacts across populated areas, but could leave the Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning commute on the slippery side. Model guidance suggests a brief lull in activity Wednesday, before another potential storm system impacts Arizona. Confidence is still low on the timing/specific impacts of these upcoming disturbances, so check back later for updated information.

AVIATION...Friday 13/12Z through Saturday 14/12Z

Widespread VFR conditions expected through 18Z, with localized MVFR conditions afterwards due to -SHRA/-SHSN. Light and variable winds expected through 18Z, becoming S-SW 10-15 kts afterwards.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 14/12Z through Monday 16/12Z...VFR/MVFR conditions forecast through 00Z Sunday due to -SHRA/-SHSN. Drier conditions return afterwards, along with improving ceilings/visibilities. Breezy SW winds 15-25 kts anticipated throughout Saturday, shifting more out of the west throughout the day. Light and variable winds return for Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Daytime highs will cool each day, landing 5-15 degrees below normal by Saturday. Precipitation chances revisit the forecast by Friday afternoon, primarily along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Greater coverage for showers expected on Saturday. Total rainfall amounts look to be 0.25" or less, with slight chances for snow accumulation above 8000'. Look for southerly winds 10-20 mph on Friday, becoming west-southwest 10-25 mph on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and cool conditions forecast for Sunday and Monday, with additional precipitation expected on Tuesday. Snow levels look to drop by Tuesday evening, so a dusting to 0.5" of snow could be seen down to 6500-7000'. As for rain, areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim could see 0.5-1.00" and 0.25" or less across the northeast portion of the state. Light/variable winds forecast for Sunday, becoming southerly at 5-15 mph on Monday, and strengthening out of the southwest at 10-25 mph on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.