textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will influence our weather through the weekend and into next week. Increasing moisture over the weekend will bring isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms, becoming more focused over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through the week.

DISCUSSION

Strong high pressure is settling across the Desert Southwest this weekend and will continue to influence our weather over the coming week.

The trough over the western US that has brought us some gusty winds, has started to lift to the north as high pressure establishes itself across the region. The high is slowly sinking to the south and the return flow around it will drag in some moisture from a decaying tropical system over the Pacific. The mid-levels will moisten first resulting in decent cloud cover across the region. CAMs do show that some light showers may develop by early morning but would be very light. Additionally, as we go into the early afternoon, we will see some slight chances for showers and thunderstorms. While not all areas will see precipitation, some virga showers and sprinkles will remain possible. Any more robust showers or storms that develop may produce outflow gusts up to 35 mph, mainly during the afternoon or early evening. As the high shifts slightly west for Sunday, we will continue to have some moisture over the region. The best chances look to be across the higher terrain with most of the activity remaining high-based.

As we head through the week, the high will strengthen and push westward. This will limit moisture advection, especially across western portions of the forecast area, so any chances for showers will be mostly limited to the White Mountains with some isolated chances along the Mogollon Rim through the week. The high slides back to the east toward the end of the week which may end up being slightly more favorable for us to see an increase in moisture. Overall, chances for widespread storms looks marginal and most of the expected activity looks to only bring some light precipitation amounts to the region.

AVIATION...Friday 03/18Z through Saturday 04/18Z

VFR conditions, with occasional MVFR CIGS/VIS in HZ/FU near KFLG/KSEZ. FU will impact KFLG all day, with impacts to KSEZ most likely during the overnight and early morning hours. S-SW winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts. Light and variable winds return after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/18Z through Monday 06/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions, with occasional MVFR CIGS/VIS in HZ/FU near KFLG/KSEZ. Gusty outflow winds possible near ISO -SHRA/-TSRA, mainly over the higher terrain Saturday and Sunday afternoons. S-SW winds 5-15 kts each day, becoming light and variable during the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday

Dry and breezy conditions continue. Expect southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph and minimum RH values between 5-15% each day. Moisture will increase this weekend with a 10-20% chance of showers or thunderstorms each afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain.

Monday through Wednesday...Warming temperatures to above normal by midweek. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain each afternoon. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph and minimum RH values between 15-25% each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.