textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected through Sunday, with strong gusty winds and dry conditions. Lighter, but still breezy, conditions continue into next week with near- critical fire weather conditions persisting.

DISCUSSION

A strong trough over the Pacific Northwest states will continue to dig southward. This will result in continued dry conditions and gusty southwest winds across the region. The pressure gradient will remain very tight through Sunday, with very strong southwest winds 15-30 mph with gusts to 45-55 mph today through Sunday. Winds will drop off a bit as we head into tonight will remain elevated into Sunday. Winds will gradually diminish Sunday night. Wind Advisories are in effect through Sunday evening for much of northern Arizona. Winds then diminish for Monday and into next week but stay gusty, remaining below advisory criteria.

With the strong winds and very dry conditions in place, we will continue to see critical fire weather conditioning through Sunday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of northern Arizona through Sunday. While it won't be nearly as windy as we head into the new week, near-critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue. Areas across eastern Arizona (mainly in the Little Colorado River Valley) look to be the most likely location for any additional Red Flag Warnings on Monday though we will hold off on issuing any additional headlines for now.

The trough remains across the western United States through much of the week. Some moisture may try to push in from the east towards the holiday weekend but confidence is low at this time.

AVIATION...Saturday 27/18Z through Sunday 28/18Z

VFR conditions. Occasional FU/HZ possible near KFLG. Winds are S/SW 20-30 kts with gusts 35-45 kts, localized over 50 kts possible. Winds subside to 10-20 kts after 03Z, though remain elevated with gusts 25-40 kts along/downwind of terrain features.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 28/18Z through Tuesday 30/18Z...VFR conditions. Occasional FU/HZ possible near KFLG. Winds S/SW 20-30 kts with gusts 35-45 kts on Sunday, then 10-20 kts with gusts to 25-35 kts on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday

Widespread critical fire weather conditions this weekend, a Red Flag Warning is in effect through Sunday. Southwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts 45-55 mph Today and Sunday, remaining elevated through the overnight especially downwind of the terrain. Winds become southwest 10-20 mph gusting 25- 35 mph on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 8-15% each day for most, slightly higher at 10-20% in the White Mountains.

Tuesday through Thursday...Continued warm, dry, and breezy conditions with Near-Critical fire weather each day. Winds are southwest 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ104>118- 137>140.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ004>016- 038>040.