textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and breezy conditions will continue through the end of the week due to a broad trough across the West Coast. A pattern change will begin over the weekend and into next week with an area of high pressure and warmer temperatures across the Southwest. Low storm chances return next week.

DISCUSSION

A broad trough over the western United States will keep it breezy and dry over northern Arizona through Friday. Wind gusts this afternoon have been in the 20-30 mph range for most areas with some gusts near 35 mph in east central sections. Temperatures continue to run well below normal for both highs and lows, though values will creep up closer to normal by Friday. With the dry air in place, overnight lows in the high country have been 10-15 degrees cooler than normal, with several spots recording freezing temperatures this morning.

Starting this weekend and into next week, the troughing weakens over the west coast as a ridge builds in from the southeast. Temperatures will start to ramp up, reaching near normal this weekend and then 4-8 degrees above normal next week. There are also signs that a gradual but fairly weak increase in moisture will occur next week. Isolated storms will be possible over the higher elevations starting around Monday, with a bit better coverage near the White Mountains. Most of the guidance for next week is keeping this moisture around average for this time of year and not an overly wet pattern.

AVIATION...Thursday 02/06Z through Friday 03/06Z

Mainly VFR conditions, outside of occasional MVFR in FU/HZ near KFLG/KSEZ. Winds light and VRB overnight, becoming S/SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts after 18Z. Winds becoming light and VRB again after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 03/06Z through Sunday 05/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions, outside of occasional MVFR in FU/HZ near KFLG/KSEZ. Daytime winds S/SW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Dry and breezy conditions expected through the end of the week. Daytime highs will increase each afternoon, but still remain below normal for this time of year. Winds SW 10-20 mph, gusts 25-30 mph. Minimum RH values forecast to be between 5-10% each afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...Expect warm and dry conditions through the weekend, but could see some low grade monsoon moisture sneak into the higher elevations by Monday afternoon. Winds SW 5-15 mph each day. Minimum RH values between 5-15% Saturday and Sunday, increasing to 10-20% by Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.