textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warming temperatures and lighter winds are expected for the weekend and into next week. Dry conditions remain as well, before chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase near the middle of next week, especially across eastern Arizona.

DISCUSSION

Dry air and light winds combined to bring cooler than normal low temperatures this morning, including 20s in parts of the high country (Tusayan, Bellemont, Flagstaff) and mid 40s for the Verde Valley. Temperatures this afternoon are still a few degrees cooler than normal, but this will change starting Sunday as heights rise and the air mass warms. Highs will return to near to slightly above normal well into next week. Winds have also finally subsided and will be mostly 15 mph or less for the next several days.

Tuesday through Friday - an increase in moisture is forecast, especially over the eastern 1/3 of the state. This is in response to a weak trough to our west and ridging over the south-central United States producing a brief period of south/southeast flow aloft. Ensemble mean precipitable water values are in the 0.55"-0.65" range over eastern Arizona during this time. While this doesn't sound like much, it is in the 85th to 95th percentile for early June as we are getting into what is typically the driest time of year. As a result, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms, starting Tuesday in the White Mountains region and then spreading a bit farther north and west by Wednesday to include the eastern Mogollon Rim and up to the Window Rock area. Rain chances start to decrease by Thursday and Friday as the moisture shifts eastward.

AVIATION...Sunday 31/06Z through Monday 01/06Z

VFR conditions. Winds generally light but tending toward S to SW at 5-15 kts daytime Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Monday 01/06Z through Wednesday 03/06Z...VFR conditions. Daytime winds S to SW at 10-20 kts, turning light and variable during the overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Dry conditions with continued warming temperatures. Winds are west/southwest 5-15 mph, with minimum RH 5-15% each day.

Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for daytime showers and thunderstorms each day, primarily confined to the White Mountains, eastern Mogollon Rim, and Chuskas. Winds are southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH is 10-20% each day, but locally higher in the White Mountains.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.