textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild weather will persist through Thursday, before cooler and wetter conditions return Friday onward. Snow levels look to remain above 8000-8500', so rainfall will be the primary form of precipitation over the weekend and into next week. Breezy conditions also look to revisit the forecast Friday, Saturday, and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

The main story across the Southwest continues to be an area of high pressure dominating the region. This pattern will bring mild temperatures, dry conditions, and light winds through Thursday. The weather story will begin to shift on Friday as a couple of disturbances begin to move towards Arizona. The first shortwave looks to pass along the Arizona/Mexico border, keeping precipitation chances focused across the southern portion of our CWA. Following quickly behind, a larger trough will push down from the Pacific Northwest. Heaviest precipitation looks to be on Saturday, but overall rainfall accumulation are forecast to be roughly 0.5" or less. However, a few localized areas near upslope location may see up to 0.75". Late Saturday into Sunday we could see a few flurries mix down towards 7000-7500', but otherwise snow levels are anticipated to remain above 8000-8500'.

Sunday and Monday a brief ridge pattern will build across the Southwest. This will allow temperatures to quickly warm and dry/calm conditions to return to the forecast. More unsettled weather looks to pass through on Tuesday, but confidence is still low at this time on exact details.

AVIATION...Wednesday 11/12Z through Thursday 12/12Z

VFR conditions expected through the period. Look for light winds generally 10 kts or less. Localized NE breezes downwind of higher terrain possible overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 12/12Z through Saturday 14/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected, but brief MVFR conditions possible along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line between 00Z-12Z Saturday due to -SHRA. Gusty/erratic winds possible near showers, with southerly winds 5-15 kts otherwise.

FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday

Near normal temperatures forecast each afternoon, with light winds generally 10 mph or less. Dry conditions will also persist, where minimum RH values are between 25-50% each day. Overnight RH recoveries will be 80-100% for much of the High Country.

Friday through Sunday...Daytime highs will quickly cool Friday and Saturday, with a slight rebound on Sunday. Expect showers to begin late Friday mostly along and south of a Flagstaff-Eagar line. Coverage looks to expand on Saturday, before quickly tapering off on Sunday. Snow levels look to be above 8000'. Expect south- southwest winds 10-25 mph Friday and Saturday, becoming light on Sunday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.