textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mainly dry and mild conditions continue through this weekend, outside of slight chance for showers across eastern Arizona. Cooler, more unsettled weather looks to return early next week.

DISCUSSION...Today

Guidance has trended further south with the low passing over northern Mexico, leading to a drier forecast for much of northern Arizona today. A few isolated showers will be possible near the White Mountains later this afternoon and evening, but the vast majority of the area looks to remain dry.

Friday and Saturday...The secondary shortwave that was originally poised to bring better dynamics for shower changes on Friday has trended slower, further lowering precipitation chances. The best shot now looks to be across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona late Friday and Saturday. Drier air is otherwise quickly ushered into the region behind the weak front, effectively cutting off any precipitation chances elsewhere. After a slight dip in temperatures on Friday, warmer conditions look to return for the start of the weekend.

Sunday through Wednesday...Another closed-low looks to eject off the Pacific into southern California late Sunday. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the low will help aid in moisture advection, potentially leading to another round of showers late Sunday into Sunday night. With Arizona directly under the upper-level jet maximum, windy conditions look to also develop for Sunday and Monday.

These cooler and unsettled conditions look to remain into the start of next week, however, confidence in any specific details remains low at this point.

AVIATION...Thursday 30/12Z through Friday 01/12Z

VFR conditions. Winds W/NW 5-10 kts through 02Z, then becoming N/NE. ISO -SHRA possible after 00Z in vicinity of KJTC.

OUTLOOK...Friday 01/12Z through Sunday 03/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds W/NE 5-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts on Friday, becoming VRB 5-10 kts on Saturday. ISO -SHRA possible each afternoon in vicinity of a KJTC-KRQE line.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday

Mild conditions and mainly dry conditions, outside of slight chance for showers in the White Mountains later today and across eastern Arizona on Friday. Winds west through north 5-10 mph today, increasing to 10-15 mph on Friday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% each day.

Saturday through Monday...Turning warmer. Slight chance for showers near the AZ/NM border on Saturday, and again on Sunday and Monday from the Mogollon Rim northward. Winds variable 5-10 mph on Saturday, becoming south/southwest 10-20 mph on Sunday then increasing to 15- 25 mph on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% on Saturday, rising to 15-25% on Sunday and Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.