textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will slowly move in from the southeast over the weekend, and moisture will slowly begin to funnel into the state. Precipitation chances are minimal at this time, and mostly focused over the White Mountains into next week.

DISCUSSION

Low pressure over the northwestern US is slowly losing its influence over the area which will allow high pressure to slowly build in from the southeast. For the weekend this will bring us temperatures right at early July averages with some afternoon southwesterly breezes at 10-20 mph. By Saturday a little bit of moisture moves into the area with precipitable water values getting close to low grade monsoon levels. However most of the moisture will be in the middle levels of the atmosphere with it remaining very dry at the lower levels. This could lead to some isolated high based showers or storms building over the White Mountains Saturday, with a 10-20% of storms building over the Rim and White Mountains by Sunday. Little to no rain is likely going to reach the ground with these storms, if anything they'll produce some gusty downdraft winds and potentially a few lightning strikes which could lead to a few new fire starts.

For next week, high pressure to our southeast continues to intensify which will warm up our temperatures 5-10 degrees above average. It will draw up some monsoon moisture but with the location of ridge being further to the east that moisture will move up more into New Mexico than Arizona. Far eastern parts of the state will be at the western edge of this moisture so the White Mountains again could see some shower/storm chances but the rest of the CWA remains dry. By next weekend there are some indications the monsoon moisture may shift further westward, we'll just have to wait and see.

AVIATION...Friday 03/12Z through Saturday 04/12Z

VFR conditions most locations, MVFR possible at KFLG during the whole TAF period, and possible overnight and early morning hours at KSEZ due to smoke and haze from the Pocket Fire. Daytime winds SW 10-20kts, gusts 20-25kts. Light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/12Z through Monday 06/12Z...VFR conditions most locations, MVFR possible at times at KFLG and KSEZ due to smoke and haze from the Pocket Fire. Winds SW 5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Dry and breezy conditions will continue. Winds SW 10-20 mph gusts 25-30 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH values 3-10% today, 7-15% Saturday. Increased cloud cover is expected by Saturday, with a 10-15% chance of an isolated thunderstorm over the White Mountains Saturday afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday...Near normal temperatures with a warming trend beginning Monday with temperatures going above average by midweek. A 10-20% of an isolated thunderstorm over the highest terrain Sunday, but by Monday and Tuesday thunderstorm chances become confined to the White Mountains region. Winds SW 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH values 10-20% Sunday and Monday, 15-25% Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.