textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A weak cold front will drop temperatures a few degrees over the next couple days as well as increase the wind from the northeast and dry the airmass out. Above normal temperatures return Sunday as a large area of high pressure dominating the West Coast moves back into the area.

DISCUSSION

The only thing of real note over the next couple days is troughing over the eastern half of the country will send a weak cold front across the area and cause our ridge of high pressure to retrograde a bit westward. Main consequences will be a drop in temperatures of 5-10 degrees for Friday and Saturday, a brief uptick in northeasterly winds for Friday and Saturday afternoons with the possibility of some stronger gusts downslope of terrain, and drying of the airmass over the area. This could lead to some pretty good diurnal temperature swings over the next two nights if the winds drop off after sunset.

On Sunday through the early half of the week, high pressure flexes eastward again and will warm our temperatures back up to 10 degrees above average with winds generally light across the area. By Thursday another wave riding down the east part of the ridge may bring another dry cold front across the region and drop our temperatures a little closer to average.

There is the possibility of wet weather the following weekend, but there is quite a bit of spread in the models on whether or not this will occur or not. If it does early indications show it to be another warmer than average system with origins over the southern parts of the Pacific Ocean. Will continue to monitor to see if this solution comes to fruition.

AVIATION...Friday 16/06Z through Saturday 17/06Z

VFR conditions with N/NE winds 5-15 kts. Localized gusts up to 25 kts downwind of the terrain.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/06Z through Monday 19/06Z...VFR conditions. Winds N/NE 5-15 kts on Saturday, becoming VRB on Sunday. Localized gusts up to 20 kts downwind of the terrain.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Expect dry conditions, but cooling temperatures for today and Saturday. Minimum humidity will be in the 15 to 20% range each afternoon. Anticipate persistent north to northeast winds each day. The strongest winds are forecast on Saturday, with gusts from 20 to 30 mph. Otherwise, northeast winds will continue each night for locations along and southwest of the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and Bradshaw Mountains.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry conditions prevail as temperatures return to 5 to 15 degrees above average each day. Afternoon winds look to be mainly light and terrain driven between 5 to 15 mph, with persistent northeast winds downwind of higher terrain features overnight.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.