textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Drier conditions return for today and most of Monday before the next storm system moves in Monday night. This storm system will last through early Wednesday morning with drying conditions Wednesday afternoon. Another storm system will move in on Thursday and last through late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

The rain from the departing system that has now moved off into Texas has moistened the lower boundary layer substantially leading to some areas of patchy fog and low ceilings. This should dry up some late this morning into this afternoon as a fast moving ridge brings some brief drier air and clear skies, with temperatures warming up to mid November averages. Some patchy fog may be possible again tonight into early Monday morning but not as widespread as this morning.

Most of Monday will be dry with seasonal temperatures before the next West Coast storm system moves into the area. This system will last all day Tuesday and depart the region Wednesday morning. Current QPF amounts look pretty close to the last storm, especially over the western zones, and a bit drier in the eastern zones. With a more northerly origin from this storm, snow levels will be lower, dropping down to 6500-7000ft before it gets out of here Wednesday morning. As the snow level drop occurs later in the storm, accumulations will be light with only the Kaibab Plateau, San Francisco Peaks and highest parts of the White Mountains seeing anything over an inch. A brief dusting may occur as low as 7000ft but shouldn't be enough to cause travel problems.

Wednesday will see another break with temperatures recovering to seasonal averages before the next trough moves in Thursday afternoon and lasts into late Friday night. This could be a colder storm system with lower snow levels, possibly down to 6000ft. At this time it looks like its trending a little drier than the midweek one so if that holds true snow accumulations will be limited to a dusting. Will continue to monitor and see if it continues to trend drier or if reverses course into something of more concern.

AVIATION...Sunday 15/12Z through Monday 16/12Z

Some patchy fog near KFLG and KSEZ through 15Z could create some IFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions rest of the day throughout the area with no precipitation expected. Winds VRB 5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 16/12Z through Wednesday 18/12Z...VFR conditions Monday, VFR-MVFR Tuesday with IFR possible Tuesday night at mountain terminals. Scattered showers move in Monday evening lasting through Tuesday night. Snow levels could drop as low as 7000ft by Tuesday night. Winds S 5-15kts daytime Monday, SW 10-20kts, gusts 30-35kts daytime Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday

Drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures expected today and Monday with the next storm system arriving Monday night. Light and variable winds today, with winds becoming S 5-10 mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms and cooler conditions are expected Tuesday, lingering into Wednesday morning in the far eastern parts of the state. Snow levels will be lower, with snow showers down to 6500-7000ft by Tuesday night and light accumulations possible above 7500-8000ft. Most of the day Wednesday is expected to be dry, but showers are expected to develop across northern Arizona from west to east on Thursday as the next next storm system pushes in from the West Coast. Snow levels likely dropping back down to 6000-7000ft, with light accumulations possible above 6500ft by Friday into Saturday. Winds SW 15-30 mph, gusts up to 40 mph on Tuesday, S 5-10 mph on Wednesday, S-SW 10-20 mph, gusts 30-35 mph on Thursday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.