textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Increasing moisture will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday or Friday, with drier weather over the weekend. Rain chances may increase again early next week.

DISCUSSION

Moisture continues to stream into Arizona, as deep and layered southwest flow persists over the southwest United States. The bulk of the moisture resides in New Mexico, but outflows are pushing higher dew points into portions of eastern, southern and central Arizona this afternoon.

The 18Z KFGZ sounding indicates relatively low instability and some dry air in the mid-levels, so storms that do develop today probably will not have much of a bite.

More of the same Thursday and Friday, maybe a bit more in the way of dynamics as a trough axis approaches from the NW. Drier weather is likely to develop behind this trough axis for Saturday and maybe Sunday.

Then, all eyes on the sub-tropics as we wait and see of one of these hurricanes will induce a surge or provide some mid-level moistening. It is a little early to make that call at this time, but the door is definitely open for it to happen. Stay tuned.

AVIATION...Thursday 24/00Z through Friday 25/00Z

Mainly VFR, with MVFR near SHRA/TSRA. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA expected to continue until 03Z mainly S and E of the KGCN-KFLG-KPRC line, and then decreasing. There is a slight chance for -SHRA/-TSRA overnight, mainly near and S/E of the KPAN-KINW-0V7 line. Brief gusty erratic winds around 35 kt possible near TS and outflow boundaries. Winds becoming variable or terrain driven overnight then becoming NE-SE 5-10 kts after 18Z. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA expected again 19Z to 00Z over the higher terrain, most numerous near and W of the KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line.

OUTLOOK...Friday 25/00Z through Sunday 27/00Z...Mainly VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA Thursday afternoon should be decreasing, but could see additional SHRA/TSRA develop if far eastern Arizona Thursday night, though the potential is low at this time. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA Friday. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty erratic winds expected near TS. Winds VRB 5-10 kts Thursday evening, becoming S-W on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern and central Arizona Thursday. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall and gusty and/or erratic winds. Drier air moves in on Friday for only a slight chance of showers and storms for most of the area. The best chances on Friday will be confined to the mountains of far eastern Arizona. Outside of storms, winds will be variable at 5-15 mph.

Saturday through Monday...Expect fair and dry weather on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to increase on Sunday and Monday but considerable uncertainty remains in this portion of the forecast. Winds will be southwest 5-15 mph on Saturday increasing to 10-20 mph on Sunday and Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.