textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the next several days. Overall, northeasterly winds will continue with occasional breezy conditions, mainly along and south of the higher terrain.

DISCUSSION

Dry conditions are expected across the area through at least Thursday, then precipitation chances start to increase.

Today through Thursday...Surface high pressure in place near the four corners will result in northeasterly flow across the area with mild and dry conditions. There is low confidence for any fog to occur the next couple nights as lingering moisture in the boundary layer becomes limited. A weak trough will cross near or just south of southern Arizona on Tuesday, but the system lacks strength and moisture, which means we will likely remain dry across northern Arizona.

Friday through next weekend...Looking towards the end of the week, the models continue to show a deepening west coast trough that becomes a cut-off low as it moves towards Baja California. While the past few days the models have trended south with the low, the most recent operational runs have shifted the low slightly north into southern Arizona. Additionally, they weaken the low as it moves towards the area and then lift it to the east/northeast over the weekend. At this point in time confidence is moderate for some some showers and gusty winds across the area over the weekend, while confidence remains low as to just how impactful this low will be due to its timing, position, and strength. With this being at the very end of the forecast period, it bears watching since we have seen a very active pattern across the region and we will need to monitor this to see how the trends line up over the next few days.

AVIATION...Sunday 08/06Z through Monday 09/06Z

Expect VFR conditions and light E-NE winds.

OUTLOOK...Monday 09/06Z through Wednesday 11/06Z...Expect VFR conditions and light E-NE or variable winds.

FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday

Dry weather and slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected. Winds will be northeast to east 5-10 mph today, and then light and variable for tonight and Monday. Look for minimum RH ranging 25-45% each day.

Tuesday through Thursday...Light and variable winds continue Tuesday, becoming north to northeast 5-15 mph Wednesday and Thursday. Minimum RH holds around 25-45% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.