textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warm, dry and generally calm conditions expected this afternoon, but a brief disturbance will bring gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and a few isolated showers on Thursday. Daytime highs look to return to above normal by late this weekend/next week, along with additional chances for rain showers.

DISCUSSION

Daytime highs remain 5-10 degrees above normal for today, but much cooler conditions looks to return for Thursday and Friday. A low pressure system from the Pacific Northwest will gradually dive southward over the next 24-36 hours. The core of this disturbance will remain north of Arizona, but impacts are still anticipated across our CWA. The main items to note will be the cooler daytime highs and gusty southwest winds. Afternoon temperatures on Thursday look to be in the 40s and 50s for much of the High Country with 60s and 70s for the lower elevation locations. And even a further dip in temperatures expected on Friday, where much of the High Country will land in the 40s and lower elevations will be in the 50s and 60s. As for wind, southwest winds 20-30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph will be expected for many areas east of Flagstaff. The Wind Advisory product is valid between 11 AM MST and 7 PM MST Thursday. Elevated west- southwest winds are anticipated elsewhere, but locations along the Little Colorado River Valley, Painted Desert, Eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and Black Mesa area will see the strongest winds. This storm system isn't a dry system, but much of Arizona will not be the lucky recipient of precipitation. A few areas near the AZ/UT border could see light snow accumulation, but overall amounts look to remain below 0.5".

Saturday onward...A closed low looks to project off the California Baja Coast beginning this weekend. This won't mean much for our CWA initially, but by early next week we could see precipitation return to the forecast. This system is on the warmer side, so rain is the main precipitation type we are expecting. Not to mention daytime highs will return to 5-10 degrees above normal by Sunday afternoon and stay in that range through much of the week.

AVIATION...Thursday 05/00Z through Friday 06/00Z

VFR conditions are expected. Winds SW at 5-15 kts gusting to 20 kts through 02Z. From 02Z-15Z, winds S to SW at 5-15 kts with localized gusts to 20 kts over and northeast of elevated terrain features. After 15Z, widespread SW winds at 15-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 06/00Z through Sunday 08/00Z...VFR conditions are forecast, 10-20% chance of light rain and snow showers across the Kaibab Plateau, Chuska Mountains and along the AZ/UT border between 18Z Thursday and 00Z Saturday. Winds W to NW at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts Thursday night into early Friday morning, NW to N at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts Friday, N-NE 5-10 kts Friday night into early Saturday morning, shifting to NE to E Saturday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Cooler temperatures set in on Thursday and Friday with temperatures dropping close to early March averages. Isolated showers are possible over far northern Arizona on both days, but wetting rains are unlikely. Winds SW 20-30 mph with gusts 35-40 mph on Thursday, becoming NW-N 5-15 mph on Friday. Minimum RH values between 15-35% each day.

Saturday through Monday...Dry with temperatures close to seasonal average on Saturday, then turning warmer with highs 5-10 degrees above average Sunday and Monday. A chance of showers over central Arizona begins on Sunday afternoon, with rain and high elevation snow chances moving northward on Monday. Winds NE 10-20 mph on Saturday and Sunday, turning to the SW 10-15 mph Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for AZZ012>014-016- 017-039-040.