textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild weather will persist through Thursday, before cooler and wetter conditions return Friday onward. Snow levels still look to remain generally above 8500', so rainfall will be the primarily form of precipitation over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the Southwest, keeping mild temperatures and dry conditions in place. This quieter pattern will stick around through Thursday, prior to unsettled weather returning by Friday through the weekend and into next week.

The previously mentioned area of high pressure will push eastward as a couple of disturbances move in from the Pacific. The influx of moisture we are expecting will come in waves, due to the nature of having two separate troughs impacting the Southwest. The first system is a shortwave moving in from the Southern California Coast on Friday. This first pass will keep showers focused across the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim due to the more southerly trajectory of this system. Following right behind is a larger disturbance moving in from the Pacific Northwest Coast. There are some discrepancies between models on how far south this trough will dig, so there is still some uncertainty with our coverage in precipitation for Saturday and Sunday. Either way, snow levels look to generally be above 8500-9000', so anticipate mostly rain over the weekend. Outside of the increased moisture, cooler temperatures and breezy southwest winds are also expected.

A brief ridge will build once again early next week, before more unsettled weather looks to revisit the forecast. Check back later for more details on precipitation chances for next week.

AVIATION...Tuesday 10/18Z through Wednesday 11/18Z

VFR conditions are expected. Look for light and variable winds, generally less than 10 kts. Localized breezy northeast winds downwind of higher terrain features overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 11/18Z through Friday 13/18Z...VFR conditions will continue. Light north through east winds are forecast, generally 10 kts or less. Localized breezy northeast winds downwind of higher terrain features overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Dry conditions, near-normal temperatures, and light winds forecast today and Wednesday. Expect minimum RH values between 25-45% each afternoon, and overnight recoveries near 100% for much of the High Country. Look for northerly winds 5-10 mph today, becoming more northeast tomorrow. Breezy winds downwind of higher terrain likely overnight.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry and warm conditions stick around for Thursday, before a cooler and wetter pattern returns Friday through the weekend. Isolated showers will begin across the eastern Rim and White Mountains Friday evening, becoming more scattered across central/northern AZ through Saturday. Snow levels will be generally above 8500-9000 feet. Light easterly winds stick around for Thursday, shifting out of the southwest at 10-20 mph Friday and Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.