textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue well into next week. Thunderstorm activity will favor the central and eastern areas most days, as drier air attempts to move in from the west. Temperatures will be right around normal, with occasional southwesterly breezes in the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION

Drier air (in the mid-levels) has moved into the majority of the area behind yesterday's s/wv. However, PW values are still well above normal, boundary layer dew points remain high and shear has increased. After the small amount of suppression from the subsidence and drying this morning, we do expect another active afternoon. Coverage will not be as widespread, without the forcing from the s/wv, but the 18Z KFGZ sounding shows potential for some severe weather and flooding from terrain-locked and training storms.

For Sunday and Monday, additional moisture is expected to move north as a compact low pressure system moves through the northern states. We expect more of the same weather, but potentially greater coverage and organization, due to the return of synoptic-dscale forcing.

For the remainder of next week, a battle between trough off the west coast and high pressure to the east will set up a series of up and down days. Basically, a regime featuring dry air fighting to move in from the west, while the Monsoonal moisture pool keeps getting pulled northward. Expect active days to continue as a result, but especially for the eastern and southeastern zones, closer to the deeper moisture.

AVIATION...Sunday 13/00Z through Monday 14/00Z

Primarily VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA continues through 03Z, then returns after 18Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds possible near +TS. Winds are S-SW winds 5-15 kts until 03Z, then light and VRB overnight. SW winds 10-15 kts return after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 14/00Z through Wednesday 16/00Z...Primarily VFR conditions, with brief MVFR conditions possible in storms. SCT- NMRS SHRA/TSRA each afternoon/evening, with the best coverage across eastern AZ. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds possible near +TS. Daytime winds are SW winds 10-20 kts each day.

FIRE WEATHER...Rest of Today through Monday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain through the rest of the afternoon and evening today (Saturday). Additional convection is forecast for Sunday and Monday afternoon. Storm coverage will be more widespread on Sunday, becoming scattered across the Rim and eastern border Monday. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, hail, frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic winds. Outside of storm driven winds, look for southwest winds 10-25 mph. Minimum RH values generally between 30-55% each afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue each afternoon/evening, primarily along the Mogollon Rim and AZ/NM border. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, hail, frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic winds. Outside of storm driven winds, look for southwest winds 10-20 mph. Minimum RH values generally between 30-60% each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.