textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected today, mainly across eastern Arizona. Otherwise, expect a return to seasonably mild temperatures, dry conditions and occasional breezes through much of the next week.

DISCUSSION

Mostly dry conditions are expected across the forecast through the next week.

Today...A weak, fast moving cut-off low is swinging through the region. While we have been able to dry out over the past few days, there is still enough moisture around for some isolated to scattered showers to develop by this afternoon. The latest high resolution models indicate initiation of showers not long after sunrise this morning in eastern Arizona. With cooler air aloft, there will be enough instability to allow for some thunderstorms to develop. The best chances for any precipitation will be over eastern Arizona and across the higher terrain, supported by current water vapor satellite imagery. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain light and generally around 0.10" or less, with a few locally higher amounts in heavier showers. As the low pulls away from the region, colder air will be drawn down to the surface and some snow may begin to mix in. Snow levels look to be mostly above 8000', including areas like Buffalo Pass in the Chuskas, with little to no accumulation expected.

Saturday and Sunday...The departing low sinks to the south through the weekend. The pressure gradient does tighten up a bit, so expect some breezy conditions. Winds will be out of the north to northeast around 5-15 mph in most areas with gusts to 20-35 mph along and south/southwest of the higher terrain.

Monday and onward...The pattern through the extended part of the forecast looks to remain mostly dry and mild. A weak trough may cross through southern Arizona on Tuesday, but with very limited moisture it is unlikely we will see much more than an isolated shower or two develop, mainly towards the White Mountains. Looking further out toward the end of next week, most model clusters show a deepening west coast trough that becomes a cut-off low. Current tracks keep the low sufficiently south to limit moisture returns into the region. However, a shift northward could bring another round of showers to our area.

AVIATION...Friday 06/12Z through Saturday 07/12Z

Expect mainly VFR conditions (patchy MVFR ceilings over higher terrain) and light winds. Scattered -SHRA/-SHRASN and isolated -TSRA after 15Z, mainly east of I-17. Locally breezy E-NE winds. Skies clearing from west to east during the evening.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 07/12Z through Monday 09/12Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Mainly daytime E-NE winds at 10-20kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Expect scattered showers today with a few embedded thunderstorms, especially over eastern Arizona. Precipitation chances decrease early Saturday morning. Some snow will fall above 8000-9000 feet, but little to no snow accumulations are expected. Dry weather returns Saturday. Winds N-NE at 5-15 mph Friday, becoming N-NE at 10-20 mph gusting 20-35 mph Saturday. Expect minimum RH around 35%-55% each day.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry weather and seasonable temperatures continue. Winds NE-E at 5-15 mph Sunday, light and variable Monday and Tuesday. Minimum RH's 25-40% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.