textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and windy weather continues through this afternoon. Less breezy on Saturday, then a weather system brings chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday. This active pattern continues through most of next week with continued daily shower chances, occasional gusty winds, and below normal daytime temperatures.

DISCUSSION

A strong easterly gradient is still present early this afternoon. This has brought very gusty east to northeast winds over the past 24 hours, especially downwind (west/southwest) of terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino counties, as well as in the Little Colorado River Valley. Peak gusts up to 40-50 mph are possible through the rest of the afternoon, and a wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of Northern and Central Arizona through 6 PM MST today. Winds are expected to gradually relax tonight through Saturday as the gradient weakens, however locally gusty winds 30-40 mph will remain possible overnight. Other than the winds, expect cooler than normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through Saturday afternoon.

An upper low currently spinning off the coast of Baja California will slowly push inland across Arizona this weekend, and will be accompanied by another surge of moisture. Upper level clouds start to encroach our area on Saturday afternoon, then chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday evening through Sunday- Monday. Most ensemble guidance keeps rainfall accumulations light, but some localized accumulations up to 0.5'' will be possible.

Into next week, we remain in a highly active pattern. A deep trough is forecast to strengthen and dive along the California coast on Tuesday, then eventually propagate past Arizona later in the week. Long term ensemble guidance hints that this will bring a deeper moisture surge than this weekend, however there is still plenty of uncertainty on the exact timing/trajectory. The current forecast brings daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. Besides the precipitation, expect a return to gusty winds by the middle of next week and continued cooler than normal temperatures.

AVIATION...Friday 16/18Z through Saturday 17/18Z

VFR expected. NE-E winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts through 02Z, then decreasing to 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/18Z through Monday 19/18Z...Mainly VFR expected. E winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Saturday, becoming light and variable through the end of the period. Increasing clouds on Saturday, with ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA possible Saturday night onward. Brief MVFR in heavier showers.

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday through Sunday

Cool temperatures with east through southeast winds around 10-20 mph on Saturday, becoming light on Sunday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening through Sunday over the higher terrain. Minimum RH is 15-35% on Saturday, increasing to 40-70% on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. South winds 5-15 mph on Monday, becoming south-southeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004- 006>008-012>015-037-038.