textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue over the weekend and much of next week, as high pressure dominates the region. Expect locally breezy easterly winds from time to time, but especially on Sunday.
DISCUSSION
High pressure largely remains in control across northern Arizona for the duration of the forecast period. As a result, temperatures will remain fairly steady each day, around fairly seasonable values.
A weak upper-level low moving ejecting off the Pacific into California will slightly increase the pressure gradient on Sunday. Easterly winds increase a bit, with some afternoon gusts around 15- 25 mph. Otherwise, winds look to remain fairly light through the duration of the forecast period, primarily from the northeast through southeast.
Dry conditions look to prevail through the weekend and into much of the coming week as well. However, with some lingering moisture in place, a stray afternoon shower can not be totally ruled out on Wednesday as a weak shortwave drops through the Four Corners. The most likely area will be across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona, however the chances remain fairly slim. Beyond that, the ensemble guidance does really signal towards much of a chance of precipitation until potentially the 8-12 day time frame.
AVIATION...Sunday 04/06Z through Monday 05/06Z
VFR conditions. Mainly light and variable winds with locally breezy NE winds downwind of terrain overnight. After 15Z, expect NE-E winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts.
OUTLOOK...Monday 05/06Z through Wednesday 07/06Z...VFR conditions. Daytime winds NE-E 10-20 becoming light and variable overnight. Locally breezy winds downwind of terrain overnight.
FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday
Expect dry conditions with seasonably warm temperatures. Daytime winds east through northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Sunday, then turning lighter on Monday at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly dry conditions with continued seasonable temperatures. A slight chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms developing by Wednesday, mainly over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Daytime winds generally northeast through southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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