textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will continue to influence our weather through the next week. Isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain each day. Hot daytime temperatures are expected, with a slight cooling towards the middle of the week and gradually increasing shower and thunderstorm activity.

DISCUSSION

Very strong high pressure remains centered over Arizona, with little movement expected over the next couple of days. Drier air has continued to find its way into the region but the moisture isn't fully scoured out. As a result, we will continue to see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain, mainly focused over eastern Arizona through Monday. Storm activity will remain diurnally driven with showers and storms dwindling in coverage as we head into the evening each day.

Heat remains the main story of the next couple of days with near to record temperatures across parts of the area. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in place through Monday with the Grand Canyon in effect through Tuesday. Lower elevations of the Grand Canyon may see the heat continue into Wednesday but with some uncertainty as to the placement of the high, we have held off on any additional extensions.

The high elongates and slightly weakens but it remains strong enough to suppress any approaching troughs through the week. Moisture looks to gradually increase across the region for the first half of the week as the high remains over Arizona, allowing for daily chances of isolated to scattered showers and storms each day, especially across the higher terrain. Heading into midweek, the high starts to shift to the north. There remains some uncertainty as to where the high ends up, with some models shifting the high directly north and others making a slight westerly shift. Each solution comes with some different impacts for the region. A more westerly shift would mean drier and hotter conditions, while a more northerly shift would signal increasing moisture, cooler temperatures, and potential for thunderstorms each day. Trends continue to increase moisture across the region lasting into next weekend. In the end, the position of the high will dictate exactly what happens across our area. Stay tuned as the scenario unfolds in the coming days!

AVIATION...Monday 03/06Z through Tuesday 04/06Z

VFR conditions, isolated showers/storms along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains from 19Z-02Z, with the best storm chances in the White Mountains. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, W-NW at 10-20kts daytime. Gusty and erratic winds possible near showers/storms.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 04/06Z through Thursday 06/06Z...VFR conditions, isolated showers/storms along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains between 19Z and 03Z each day, especially Wednesday. Winds SW-W 10-20kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds possible near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Hot with temperatures 5-10 degrees above average. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening along the Mogollon Rim and over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Winds SW-W 10-20 mph. Minimum RH is 10-20% deserts, 20-30% mountains.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above average. Coverage of storms increases and expands westward with afternoon storms over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, expanding southward into the mid and low elevation deserts of Yavapai and Gila Counties during the evenings. Daytime winds generally SW-W at 5-15 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ005-006.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ009-010- 012>014-040.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ018-037-038.