textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, along with slightly cooler temperatures. Warm temperatures and drier conditions return for the first part of next week, but a low grade monsoon forecast may be possible later in the week for the highest elevations as some moisture returns to the area.

DISCUSSION

Our Monsoon "preview" event is underway. Our initial delay from cloud cover over the northern half of the CWA seems to be wearing off as storms are beginning to fire over multiple locations as I write this. Showers and storms will become more numerous over the region as the day progresses, but activity should dwindle after sunset as we lose the daytime heating. The normal hazards found in the monsoon will definitely apply today so keep your eye to the sky as some of these storms could briefly reach severe levels with downburst winds being the main threat.

Another active day may be possible tomorrow, depending on how much left over debris clouds there are from today's action. Showers and storms should start firing over the higher elevations by mid morning to early afternoon and then dissipate again by nighttime.

By Monday a drying trend starts moving in with most of the deeper moisture being pushed south towards the lower deserts, however enough remains for a 20-30% chance of some afternoon shower/storms over the Rim and White Mountains. Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be a relatively dry day across most of the region, except the White Mountains where a 10-20% chance of a storm exists. By Thursday and Friday, enough moisture may sneak back in for some low grade monsoon activity along the Rim and White Mountains (15-25% storm chances).

AVIATION...Saturday 13/18Z through Sunday 14/18Z

Expect mainly VFR conditions. However, SCT-NMRS -SHRA/-TSRA through 02Z-04Z Sunday could produce brief MVFR and erratic winds to 40kts. Storm coverage becoming more ISOLD overnight. Sfc winds outside of storms will be southwesterly and generally 10-15kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 14/18Z through Tuesday 16/18Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA on Sunday becomes ISOLD by Monday. Any storms could produce brief MVFR and erratic winds to 40kts. Storms most common in the afternoon hours. Sfc winds outside of storms will be southwesterly and generally 10-15kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue for Sunday, then becoming more isolated in coverage by Monday. Any storms that do form are capable of producing wetting rains. Thunderstorms could produce gusty and erratic winds that may reach 30 to 40 mph. Outside of storms, expect southwesterly daytime winds from 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Becoming warm and dry. Westerly winds 10 to 15 mph on Tuesday, then becoming southwesterly 10 to 20 mph for Wednesday and Thursday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.