textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through next week. Northeasterly winds will continue with occasional breezy conditions, mainly along and south of the higher terrain.

DISCUSSION

Mostly dry conditions are expected across the area through next week.

Through Sunday...The upper low that moved through the region on Friday has settled over Mexico and continues to move towards the south and east. In its wake we have northeasterly flow across the area with mild temperatures and breezy conditions. There is still some lingering moisture around but no precipitation is expected. Some fog may develop again tonight, mainly across eastern Arizona and along the Mogollon Rim. While winds should decouple and drop off this evening, some gusts to 25 mph will continue overnight in areas directly south/southwest of the higher terrain.

Monday through Thursday...The pattern through much of the week looks to remain mostly dry. A weak trough will cross near or just south of southern Arizona on Tuesday, but the system lacks strength and moisture, which means we will likely remain dry across northern Arizona. Should a little bit of moisture sneak in on the eastern edge of the trough in the weak southeast flow, it would result in only an isolated shower or two, mainly confined to the White Mountains. Expect temperatures to remain mild through the period with generally light winds.

Friday through next weekend...Looking towards the end of the week, the models continue to show a deepening west coast trough that becomes a cut-off low as it moves towards Baja California. While the past few days the models have trended south with the low, the most recent operational runs have shifts the low slightly to the north. Additionally, they weaken the low as it moves towards the area and then lift it to the east/northeast over the weekend. At this point in time we may see some showers and gusty winds across the area over the weekend, but confidence is low as to just how impactful this low will be due to timing, position, and strength of the low. With this being at the very end of the forecast period, it bears watching since we have seen a very active pattern across the region and we will need to monitor this to see how the trends line up over the next few days.

AVIATION...Sunday 08/00Z through Monday 09/00Z

VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Some low lying areas could see some patch morning fog between 09Z-015Z, mainly Little Colorado Valley and western downslope of the Chuskas. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight. NE-E 5-15kts daytime Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Monday 09/00Z through Wednesday 11/00Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds VRB 5-15kts Monday, N-NE 5-10kts Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday

Dry weather and near normal temperatures are expected through Monday. North to northeast winds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph this afternoon, especially along higher terrain. Winds will become light overnight and, northeast to east 5-10 mph Sunday, and then light and variable on Monday. Minimum RH today will be around 30-60%, then decreasing to 25-45% by Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Light and variable winds continue Tuesday, becoming north to northeast 5-15 mph Wednesday and Thursday. Minimum RH holds around 25-45% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.