textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures with rain and high elevation snow are expected today. Dry and warm conditions return for the weekend. A strong system is expected to move into the region, bringing gusty winds and chances for rain and snow through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Showers are moving into the area right now and will remain around throughout the day as a West Coast trough brings moisture into the area. Despite today being cooler than it has been recently, this is still a subtropical tap of moisture so snow levels will be pretty high again, between about 7500-8000ft through most of the day, before lowering to 6500-7000ft by this evening as some cold air filters in. By this time though, most of the precipitation will have moved out so being the case, along with warm ground from the recent warm temperatures, snow accumulations will be minimal at best with the exception of the San Francisco Peaks and the White Mountains where a few inches may fall. QPF amounts will range from 0.1 to 0.2" most places, with 0.25-0.5" over the highest elevations.

This trough will quickly exit out of the area on Saturday morning with a ridge of high pressure moving through during the weekend. Temperatures will once again rise 5-10 degrees above average Saturday through Monday.

By Monday a large trough digs in off the West Coast and begins sending shortwaves across the region. As the pressure gradient increases from the incoming trough, winds across the area pick up out of the southwest at 20-30 mph, with gusts 30-40 mph on Monday and Tuesday. The first wave of precipitation arrives Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening with another wave arriving Wednesday into Thursday. The first system at this time has a mild start with snow levels again starting pretty high, but dropping as the system progresses. The second system looks colder with more widespread snow expected. Models are still trying to work out the final QPF and snowfall amounts. With the unsettled week ahead make sure you check back for forecast updates frequently if you have any travel plans across the area.

AVIATION...Friday 13/12Z through Saturday 14/12Z

VFR to MVFR, IFR possible near heavier showers. Scattered mainly rain showers. KFLG and KGCN may see some snow showers starting between 21Z Fri and 00Z Sat. Rain and snow showers should exit the region by 06Z Sat. Winds variable 5-10kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 14/12Z through Monday 16/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions with some MVFR conditions possible through 18Z in higher terrain. No precipitation expected. Winds variable 5-10kts Saturday, S-SW 10-15kts Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Chances for rain and snow showers will become widespread over the entire area today. While rainfall amounts will generally be light, a few areas, especially higher terrain could see wetting rains. Snow levels will be relatively high at 7500-8000ft through most of the event, but could briefly lower to 6500-7000ft tonight with snowfall accumulations being relatively light overall. Things dry out for Saturday with temperatures warming back up to 5-10 degrees above average. Winds SW 5-10 mph today, then W-NW 5-15 mph Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and mild Sunday through the first part of Monday. Rain and snow showers return late Monday through at least Tuesday. Winds SW 10-20 mph on Sunday, increasing to SW 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph for Monday and Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.