textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Isolated showers are expected across eastern Arizona on Friday, followed by a return to mild temperatures, dry conditions, and occasional breezes through much of the next week. Despite the dry forecast, a few instances of flooding continue. Stay away from waterways and if you come to a flooded road, turn around, don't drown.

DISCUSSION

Mostly dry conditions are expected across the forecast through the next week.

Through tonight...weak flow remains across the region through tonight keeping us cool and dry with light winds.

Friday...a weak but fast moving cut-off low will swing through the region on Friday. While we have been able to dry out over the past few days, there is still enough moisture around for some isolatd to scattered showers to develop Friday afternoon. With cooler air aloft, there will be enough instability to allow for some thunderstorms to develop. Best chances for any precipitation on Friday will be over eastern Arizona and across the higher terrain. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain light and generally around 0.10" or less with a few locally higher amounts in heavier showers. As the low pulls away from the region, colder air will be drawn down to the surface and some snow may begin to mix in. Best chances to see snow look to be in areas above 8000', like Buffalo Pass in the Chuskas, with little to no accumulation expected.

Saturday and Sunday...The departing low sinks to the south through the weekend. The pressure gradient does tighten up a bit so expect some breezy conditions. Winds will be out of the north to northeast around 5-15 mph in most areas with gusts to 20-35 mph along and south/southwest of the higher terrain.

Monday and onward...The pattern through the extended part of the forecast looks to remain mostly dry. A weak trough may cross through southern Arizona on Tuesday, but with very limited moisture it is unlikely we will see much more than an isolated shower or two develop, mainly towards the White Mountains. Expect mild temperatures and dry conditions to continue through much of the coming week. Looking further out and towards the end of next week, the models show a deepening west coast trough that becomes a cut-off low. Current tracks keep the low off to our south which would limit and moisture returns into the region. However, a shift northward could bring another round of showers to our area. Overall, expect a relatively uneventful weather week with the potential for a chance later next week.

AVIATION...Thursday 05/18Z through Friday 06/18Z

VFR conditions and light winds. Locally breezy E-NE winds downwind of higher terrain overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 06/18Z through Sunday 08/18Z...VFR conditions. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-SHRASN, with a few embedded thunderstorms, Friday afternoon and night. Winds N-NE at 5-15 kts Friday, becoming N-NE at 10-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts Saturday - strongest over the higher terrain.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Expect scattered showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms, on Friday. Precipitation chances decrease early Saturday morning. Some snow is possible above 8000- 9000 feet, but little to no snow accumulations are expected. Dry weather returns Saturday. Winds N-NE at 5-15 mph Friday, becoming N- NE at 10-20 mph gusting 20-35 mph Saturday. Expect minimum RH around 30%-50% each day.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry weather and seasonable temperatures continue. Winds NE-E at 5-15 mph Sunday, light and variable Monday and Tuesday. Minimum RH's 25-40% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.