textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Widespread dry conditions and gusty winds expected again today, continuing the critical fire weather conditions. Winds will decrease for the week, but still remain breezy each afternoon out of the southwest and single digit to low teen minimum RH values will keep much of northern Arizona in near- critical fire weather conditions. Afternoon temperatures will also slowly increase through the week, but remain mostly below normal for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

A large low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest continues to bring gusty southwest winds and mostly dry conditions across much of northern Arizona. With winds forecast to gust near 40-45 mph this afternoon and minimum RH values mostly below 15%, the Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory products remain in effect through this evening.

The first noticeable break from these roaring winds will be Sunday night/Monday morning, when typical light/terrain driven winds return for our CWA. Much of the Western CONUS will remain under a trough through the week, keeping afternoon winds out of the southwest but speeds should drop to about 10-20 mph. Daytime temperatures will creep up each day, but will remain below normal for this time of year through the week. Dry conditions will also be sticking around with minimum RH values dropping to single digits across much of northern Arizona. This will keep us in a near-critical fire weather conditions state. There may need to be consideration for additional Red Flag Warnings for the eastern portions of the Little Colorado River Valley for Monday, but no additional products have been issued at this time.

You may be wondering if precipitation is going to return anytime soon, and the only glimmer of hope is for some moisture to creep in from the east by next weekend, but confidence is very low at this time.

AVIATION...Sunday 28/06Z through Monday 29/06Z

Expect mainly VFR conditions. Patchy MVFR/IFR possible near area wildfires, including terminal KFLG. Daytime sfc winds S-SW15-25g30-45kts, decreasing to 10-20g25-30kts overnight and early morning.

OUTLOOK...Monday 29/06Z through Wednesday 01/06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Patchy MVFR/IFR possible near area wildfires, including terminal KFLG, possibly into KGCN and KSEZ. Daytime sfc winds S-SW15- 25g30-40kts Monday, decreasing to 10-20g25-30kts Tuesday. Wind speeds decreasing substantially in the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Critical fire weather conditions continue today, with gusty winds and widespread low RH values. A Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening for much of northern Arizona. Expect winds to be out of the southwest 20-30 mph gusting near 40-45 mph this afternoon, becoming lighter on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday... Breezy and dry conditions forecast to continue. Expect southwest winds between 10-20 mph each afternoon with gusts near 25-30 mph. Minimum RH values will mostly be below 10% each day, keeping much of northern Arizona in near-critial fire weather conditions.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>118-137>140.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004>016-038>040.