textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Expect dry and warmer weather over the weekend, then a chance of mainly rain showers Monday evening into Tuesday. Dry conditions with even warmer weather develops later next week.
DISCUSSION
A cut-off low is quickly retrograding to our southwest, and will stall off the coast of Baja California through the weekend. Warming temperatures with dry conditions across northern AZ can be expected through tomorrow. Breezy northeast winds today will become more localized into the evening/tomorrow morning, with much lighter winds setting in by tomorrow afternoon. By the beginning of next week, the cut-off low will finally begin to push eastward and bring a surge of moisture into the region. PW is forecast to exceed the 90th percentile for this time of year Monday evening into Tuesday. The trajectory/timing of the low will bring primarily rain showers, mostly to regions along/south of the I-40 corridor during this period. After the disturbance exits, there is good agreement in another warm and dry period as ridging builds along the west coast.
AVIATION...Sunday 08/06Z through Monday 09/06Z
VFR conditions. NE winds 5-15 kts over night, with localized gusty NE winds 20-25 kts downwind of the higher terrain through 16Z.
OUTLOOK...Monday 09/06Z through Wednesday 11/06Z...VFR conditions through 18Z Monday, then periods of MVFR possible in SHRA/CIGS. E/NE winds 5-15 kts on Sunday, becoming S-SW on Monday.
FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday
Warmer conditions on Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions for Sunday with chances for showers along and south of the I-40 corridor on Monday. Northeast to east winds around 5-10 mph on Sunday, becoming south to southwest on Monday. Locally gusty winds expected along and south of the higher terrain through Sunday morning.
Tuesday through Thursday...Warm conditions continue. Chances for showers along and south of the Mogollon Rim on Tuesday, with dry conditions returning for Wednesday and Thursday. West winds around 10-20 mph on Tuesday, shifting to the north-northeast 10-15 mph on Wednesday, then becoming north to west 5-10 mph on Thursday.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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