textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store through the weekend, along with typical afternoon breezes. On Memorial Day, a passing low will bring chances for high-based showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain. Windier and cooler conditions look to return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday

Aside from weak troughing over the west, quasi-zonal flow largely remains in control through the start of the holiday weekend. Continued warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected through at least at least Saturday as a result. Winds look to generally remain light, however the aforementioned troughing will keep some typical spring-time afternoon breezes (20-30 mph) over the higher terrain.

Sunday through Wednesday...A weak low looks to eject off the Pacific into the southwest early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase in PWATs from the resulting increase in moisture advection into Arizona. Mainly dry conditions are expected initially, aside from potentially a few isolated showers around the White Mountains Sunday afternoon. Coverage looks to increase on Monday as the low moves overhead, with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm expected. Model soundings still show a fairly dry sub-cloud layer, so any activity that does develop looks to be high-based in nature. Thus, any rainfall amounts will be minimal.

Drier and cooler conditions look to then set for the remainder of the period. Gusty southwest winds also look to return for the middle of next week, potentially reigniting fire weather concerns Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION...Thursday 21/18Z through Friday 22/18Z

VFR conditions persist with mainly clear skies. Expect west-southwest winds, 5-15 kts, this afternoon, becoming light and variable after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 22/18Z through Sunday 24/18Z...VFR conditions continue through the period with SCT-BKN cloud cover on Friday, followed by FEW-SCT clouds for Saturday and Sunday. Expect west- southwest winds each afternoon, 10-20 kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday

Dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each day, along with minimum RH 5-15%.

Saturday through Monday....Mainly dry over the weekend, with only a few isolated high-based showers and virga possible, mainly near the White Mountains. Coverage of high-based showers and thunderstorms then increase on Monday. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH is 5-15% on Saturday, then gradually rising to 10-20% by Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.