textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect dry and relatively warm weather for much of Monday, with a chance of mainly rain showers Monday night into early Tuesday. Dry conditions and even warmer weather then develops from Wednesday onward.

DISCUSSION

A robust cut off low south of San Diego will begin to move east across northern Mexico today, as energy in the northern stream dips far enough south to scour it out. The low is closest to our CWA Monday night and moves east of the region by late Tuesday morning.

When the low ejects, a brief period of well above normal PW values move into southern Arizona, potentially as far north as I-40. This will raise our chances for (mainly) rain showers Monday night and early Tuesday, before much drier air moves quickly back into the picture for the remainder of next week.

Areas south of the I-40 corridor and primarily southeast of Flagstaff could see as much as 0.50" of rainfall Monday night, as well as a few rumbles of thunder. However, many areas to the north and west will remain dry.

Strong ridging redevelops after Tuesday, with a return to dry weather and well above normal temperatures for the rest of the week and into next weekend.

AVIATION...Monday 09/18Z through Tuesday 10/18Z

Mainly VFR conditions, a heavier shower could cause brief MVFR. Light rain showers move in between 00Z Tues and stay through 18Z Tues for locations south of Interstate 40. Little to no precipitation expected north of Interstate 40. Winds S-SW 10-20kts, gusts to 25kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 10/18Z through Thursday 12/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions, brief MVFR in heavier showers. A few showers linger over the White Mountains through 06Z Wednesday. Afterward dry area wide for the rest of the week. Winds W-NW 10-20kts Tuesday, NW-N 5-10kts Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Mainly rain shower chances begin moving in from the south by late Monday afternoon, peaking Monday night and then decreasing and shifting east on Tuesday. Best chance for showers will be southeast of Flagstaff and south of I-40. Daytime temperatures remain above normal, but will dip on Tuesday. Winds south through southwest 10 to 15 mph Monday and westerly 15 to 25 mph Tuesday, higher speeds over the northern zones for Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Warm and dry conditions return. Winds northerly 5 to 15 mph Wednesday and Thursday, shifting southwest through west on Friday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.