textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Rain and snow showers will taper off quickly this evening, lasting longest over Apache County. Noticeably colder temperatures and brisk northeast winds then develop for Sunday and Monday, With warmer temperatures from Tuesday onward. A chance of showers may redevelop toward the end of the next week.

DISCUSSION

A weak and shearing cold front is working through northern and central Arizona this afternoon, slowly becoming more west to east oriented as pressure falls develop over the northern Rockies. Showers both ahead of the front, with the front and behind the front, have all been light and shallow. In fact, they probably wouldn't even exist if it wasn't for the moisture boundary layer left behind from last week. Due to the lack of any deep saturation in the dendritic growth zone, only the heavier showers have dropped snow levels down to about 7000 feet, everything else has been rain. We cancelled the WSW and impacts due to snow are not anticipated for the rest of today.

Clearing and rapid drying develops tonight, due to a reinforcing blast of cold and dry air from the the northern Rockies low, as it ejects into the plains. A northeasterly gradient will develop early Sunday and stay with us through at least Monday. This will mess with lows and highs along and northeast of the Mogollon Rim as cold air lodges in place. All other locations should begin to warm as amplified ridging develops over the region.

By Wednesday or Thursday, there are some indications that another sub-tropical tap will develop. However, solutions are all over the place and confidence is low, despite the continued high PoPs exhibited by the NBM. Stay tuned.

AVIATION...Sunday 28/06Z through Monday 29/06Z

VFR conditions overnight with isold FG possible Sunday morning. NW winds 5-10 kts overnight turning NE 5-15 kts by Sunday afternoon. Localized gusts to 25 kts downwind of higher terrain Sunday night.

OUTLOOK...Monday 29/06Z through Wednesday 31/06Z...VFR conditions expected. Look for NE winds 5-15 kts each day, with localized gusts to 25 kts downwind of terrain features along and west of the Mogollon Rim Monday night.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Dry conditions return. Winds are north through northeast 5-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each day. The minimum RH ranges from 20-40% on Sunday then 15-25% on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...A warming trend with dry conditions through Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation could return as soon as Wednesday evening/Thursday morning, but confidence is low at this time. Expect north-northeast winds 5-15 mph on Tuesday, becoming light and variable on Wednesday and Thursday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.