textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Drier air moves in on Tuesday and for remainder of the workweek. Gusty winds are forecast each day, strongest on Wednesday. Look for cooler daytime temperatures the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

A bit of moisture has moved over northern Arizona from the south over the past 24 hours. As a result, the moisture has combined with daytime heating to produce some atmospheric instability. Many locations continue to see cloud buildups into the early evening but the deepest moisture and best chance for showers and even a stray thunderstorm will be across the Little Colorado River Valley and the general area of the White Mountains into the early evening. Most activity will be isolated (10% chance) but the White Mountains region will see a 10-30% chance of showers through the early evening.

On Tuesday and Wednesday...A Pacific trough will brush Arizona. The main impact of this system will be to usher in a drier air mass and strengthen pressure gradients for gusty winds. Tuesday we are expect south to southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph as the trough approaches. On Wednesday, as the trough axis move across the area look for southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-45 mph (the higher values especially from the Mogollon Rim northward). Pressure gradients will remain strong enough for winds to remain gusty both Tuesday and Wednesday nights. A Wind Advisory eventually looks on target for Wednesday with elevated fire weather danger for at least Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, a bit cooler during the daytime under just a few clouds.

For Thursday and Friday...The trough will head eastward. Consequently, winds will shift to more southwest to west direction. It will remain gusty with southwest to west winds at 10-20 mph gusting to around 25 mph most areas. Little change in temperatures with mainly sunny skies on Thursday with some additional cloudiness on Friday with a weak passing disturbance.

From Saturday onward...Unsettled weather will persist with a series of weak shortwave troughs continuing to brush the area. Look for below average temperatures and daytime breezes with chance for showers at times.

AVIATION...Tuesday 21/06Z through Wednesday 22/06Z

VFR conditions. Light and variable wind at less than 10 kts overnight. Winds S to SW at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts after 17Z Tuesday, decreasing to 5-15 kts after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 22/06Z through Friday 24/06Z...VFR conditions. Winds S to SW increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts 30-45 kts on Wednesday, then SW to W 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts Thursday. Winds will remain elevated both Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Dry and a bit cooler. South to southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph on Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 mph gusting to 35-45 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH values 10-20% each afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry and breezy with little change in temperature. Southwest to west winds at 15-25 mph each day. Minimum RH values between 10-25% each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.