textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and windy weather will continue into early next week, with temperatures close to normal. Critical fire weather conditions are expected at times through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

A trough over the northwest United State will remain in place through early next week. Our region is on the dry and windy southern end of the trough. The main concerns in northern Arizona will be gusty winds and low humidity, leading to areas of critical fire weather. The windiest areas this afternoon have been from around Flagstaff north and west where gusts have reached 30-40 mph and a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Coverage of 30-40 mph gusts is forecast to increase on Sunday and the Red Flag Warning area expands as a result to include most of northern Arizona. There remains some uncertainty as to how far south the trough dips on Monday and Tuesday, and this will impact our wind speeds. For this reason, the Fire Weather Watch for those days will remain in effect at this time. Winds look to decrease for the latter half of next week as the trough moves off to the east. Warmer temperatures are likely toward the end of next week and the weekend as heights build from the southeast. The grand ensemble mean 500 mb height is close to 590 dam which would result in daily highs several degrees above normal. Ensembles are also hinting at some increase in moisture from the south by Friday and the weekend. PoPs are currently less than 15% but this will be worth keeping an eye on.

AVIATION...Saturday 06/18Z through Sunday 07/18Z

VFR conditions expected. Winds are SW-W 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts. Overnight winds are S-SW 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 07/18Z through Tuesday 09/18Z...VFR conditions expected. Winds are SW 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts on Sunday then 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts on Monday. Winds are generally S-SW 5-15 kts during the overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday

Warm, dry, and windy conditions. Near-critical to critical fire weather each day. Winds are southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Saturday and Sunday, then gusts increasing to 35-45 mph on Monday. Minimum RH is 7-15% each afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for northwest zones and the western Mogollon Rim through this evening, then expands to include most of northern AZ on Sunday. Most of northern AZ remains under a Fire Weather Watch on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry, with winds diminishing some on Wednesday and Thursday. Critical to near critical fire weather conditions are possible on Tuesday, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most of northern Arizona. Winds southwest 15-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph on Tuesday, becoming southwest/west 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph Wednesday, then west 10-20 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH is 5-15% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104-106-107-115.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ104>116-139-140.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for AZZ104>117-138>140.