textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday afternoon, primarily across eastern Arizona. Otherwise, warm and dry weather looks to stick around through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Light showers remain across northern Apache and Navajo County tonight, but activity should continue to clear through early morning. Drier air is anticipated to dominate much of our CWA today, but between daytime heating and any lingering mid- level moisture, a stray shower or two across eastern Arizona is not out of the question for this afternoon.

For the rest of the week and into the first part of next week, a strong area of high pressure will continue to build across the Southwest. From this, daytime highs are forecast to land 2-10 degrees above normal with typical spring-like breezes each afternoon. Keeping the warmer temperatures in mind, an Extreme Heat Warning may be warranted for the Grand Canyon this weekend, but more decisions will be made on that later this week.

Towards the middle of next week, model guidance suggests some form of a low pressure system sliding across Arizona. Confidence behind any moisture accompanying this system is low, but we'll likely see temperatures drop a few degrees and increased southwest winds.

AVIATION...Wednesday 11/12Z through Thursday 12/12Z

VFR conditions, isolated high based showers or thunderstorms over Chuskas and White Mountains between 18Z and 00Z. Winds SW-W 10-15kts gusts to 20kts, gusty and erratic winds near showers or storms.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 12/12Z through Saturday 14/12Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds SW-W 10-20kts, gusts 25-30kts during the day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday

A few high based showers or dry thunderstorms over the Chuskas and White Mountains today, but the rest of the area dries out as high pressure moves in. Dry weather expected across the whole region on Thursday. Daytime temperatures a few degrees above normal each day and minimum relative humidities from 10-15 percent. Winds SW-W 10-20 mph, gusts 20-30 mph each day.

Friday through Sunday...Dry region wide with temperatures warming up 5-10 degrees above average. Expect minimum relative humidity values 10-15 percent for Friday, and 5-10 percent Saturday and Sunday. Winds SW 10-20 mph, gusts to 25 mph each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.