textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and windy conditions will continue through Tuesday with areas of critical fire weather. Winds begin to diminish by midweek, and daytime temperatures become above normal. Slight chance for a few showers or thunderstorms by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A trough over the west coast this afternoon will move eastward and pass to our north on Tuesday. The main impacts over our region through Tuesday will be gusty southwest to west winds and low humidity bringing critical fire weather. Gusts today have been in the 30-35 mph range, with some 35-45 mph gusts forecast for Tuesday afternoon. By tonight, some limited moisture is going to move into far eastern Arizona including the White Mountains and possibly up to Window Rock. Isolated light showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be possible in these areas mainly from late this evening to the early morning hours on Tuesday, with PoP values in the 10-20% range.

Wednesday and Thursday - heights increase as the trough moves eastward, leading to hotter temperatures. Highs will be 5-10 degrees above normal, mid-upper 80s in the mountains and 100-105 for the lower valleys.

Friday into the weekend - latest models continue to show high pressure developing to our southeast, allowing for some moisture advection northward up into Arizona. Mean precipitable water from the grand ensemble gets up to 0.75"-1.00" from about the Mogollon Rim southward, which is in the 95th+ percentile for mid June. Shower and thunderstorm chances have increased a bit in our latest forecasts, in the 10-30% range. By early next week, westerly flow looks to push the moisture farther east with lowering precip chances.

AVIATION...Tuesday 09/06Z through Wednesday 10/06Z

VFR conditions. SW 5-15 kts overnight, then increasing to 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 10/06Z through Friday 12/06Z...VFR conditions. SW-W winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts on Wednesday, decreasing to 10-20 kts on Thursday. Expect winds to subside to 5-15 kts each night.

FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday

Warm, dry, and windy with critical fire weather conditions through Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for most of northern Arizona through Tuesday evening. There is a slight chance of a dry thunderstorm near the White Mountains this afternoon. Winds are southwest at 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph Monday and Tuesday, becoming southwest/west 10- 15 mph gusting 20-30 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH is 5-15% each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Warm and dry on Thursday, then slight chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Winds are southwest/west 10-15 mph Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH is 5- 15% Thursday, increasing to 10-20% on Friday and Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ104>107-109>117-139-140.