textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions return for much of this week, with isolated chances for showers across the higher terrain each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft has turned northwesterly, allowing a slightly drier air mass to work into the region. Today will remain quite active generally along/south of the Mogollon Rim, with plenty of moisture present and clear morning skies aiding in afternoon destabilization. Isolated to scattered activity is currently firing in these regions as of 1200 MST, and will continue through the daytime. Storm activity will decline rapidly this evening, mostly concluding by 2000 MST. Hazards from storms today include gusty outflow winds, small hail, and lightning. Heavy rain with flash flooding will also be a concern, especially within training storms in Yavapai county.

Moisture will continue to diminish through the week, though still remain well above normal for June. Daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Friday, mostly constrained to the Eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Elsewhere expect warm, dry, and possibly breezy conditions each day.

With this warming trend, an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the Grand Canyon below 4000 feet on Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime highs will be close to 110 degrees at Phantom Ranch. If you have plans to be in the canyon, then make sure you are prepared for hot conditions.

There is confidence in a Pacific trough sweeping out the lingering moisture this weekend, leading to dry and breezy conditions. Current LREF ensemble guidance has PW dropping to the 15th-30th percentile on Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION...Tuesday 16/00Z through Wednesday 17/00Z

SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISO +TSRA along or south of a KCMR-KFLG-KSJN line, mostly diminishing by 03Z. ISO SHRA/TSRA returns after 20Z south of a KPRC-KSJN line. Brief MVFR and erratic gusts 30-40 kts near storms. Away from storms, expect light overnight winds becoming W-NW 10-20 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 17/00Z through Friday 19/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible each afternoon, mainly south of a KPRC-KSJN line. SW-W winds 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts each day. Winds remain elevated east of terrain features during the overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Look for mainly dry and warmer weather. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to drop to isolated, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Localized downpours and wind gusts to 40 mph possible with any thunderstorms. Outside of storms, daytime west to northwest at 10-20 mph are forecast.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly dry, breezy and turning a bit cooler. Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Expect southwest winds at 10- 20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph each day. Enhanced fire weather conditions possible across northeast Arizona each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006.