textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect dry and relatively warm weather for much of Monday, with a chance of mainly rain showers Monday night into early Tuesday. Dry conditions and even warmer weather then develops from Wednesday onward.

DISCUSSION

The cut-off low which has stalled off the coast of Baja California through the weekend is finally beginning to push eastward. This disturbance comes in closest proximity to us tonight through tomorrow, and will bring a surge of well above normal PW and showers as far north as the I-40 corridor. Showers encroach from the south around 5-6 pm tonight, then peak in coverage south of I-40 by late evening through early tomorrow morning. Activity then declines and pushes eastward through tomorrow afternoon, fully diminishing by the evening.

This system will stay too warm for snow for the majority of sites across northern AZ. Snow levels start over 9000 ft at the onset of precipitation, and may drop as low as 8000-8500 ft early tomorrow morning. Any meaningful accumulating snow through tomorrow looks to be confined to the highest elevations of the White Mountains. Also, a few heavier convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible within this regime. Overall rainfall accumulations 0.30-0.60 inches are forecast, largely confined to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Areas north of Flagstaff will stay dry.

By Wednesday we come under the influence of a strong west coast ridge, and it's right back to warm and dry through at least the weekend.

AVIATION...Tuesday 10/06Z through Wednesday 11/06Z

Expect VFR conditions with brief MVFR in ISO -SHRA, mainly south of a KFLG- KRQE line. Light and variable winds overnight, increasing to W-NW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-35 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 11/06Z through Friday 13/06Z...VFR conditions. W-N winds 5-15 kts Wednesday and Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

A few lingering showers remain over eastern Arizona, mainly west of highway 87 and south of Interstate 40. Rainfall amounts will vary from 0.05" to 0.25", with the highest amounts over the White Mountains. Dry weather returns Tuesday night through Wednesday. Winds W-NW 10-20 mph Tuesday, N-NE 5-15 mph Wednesday. Minimum RH values range from 20% high deserts to 55% eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Tuesday, dropping to 10-25% Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry the rest of the week with temperatures rising to well above average. Winds NW-N 5-15 mph Thursday, SW 5-15 mph Friday, W 10-20 mph Saturday. Min RH values 10- 20% Thursday, 5-15% Friday and Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.