textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions forecast to continue through the week, as dry and breezy conditions persist. Afternoon temperatures will remain mostly below normal for this time of year through Friday before warming up over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

General troughing will continue along the west coast through Friday, keeping a dry and breezy weather pattern over northern Arizona. An embedded upper low over California today will move across Arizona late tonight and Tuesday. This will cause winds aloft (near 10K ft msl) to increase to 25-35 kts, with the stronger winds shifting into eastern Arizona by mid morning Tuesday through the afternoon. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph have developed this afternoon, with the stronger winds in east central Arizona where a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 7 PM MST. This area will also be targeted for higher winds on Tuesday, and we have upgraded Tuesday's Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning. The wind will also be lined up to bring smoke from the Pocket Fire north-northeastward into the Flagstaff region over the next several days. Breezy winds will persist Wednesday through Friday, but are currently forecast to remain below critical fire weather thresholds. With the trough nearby, afternoon temperatures have been 5-10 degrees below normal the past couple of days, and this will persist through around Thursday before a warm up begins. A ridge building in from the east should also lead to less wind over the weekend into early next week. As for moisture, nothing is showing up through at least the 4th of July (Saturday). A very slow increase in precipitable water is shown in the ensemble data starting early next week, with a slight chance of a shower or storm around the White Mountains by next Monday. No strong signals for deeper monsoon moisture are showing up through at least day 10 in the ensemble data.

AVIATION...Tuesday 30/00Z through Wednesday 01/00

Mainly VFR conditions, except for smoke plumes due to wildfires. Localized MVFR/IFR conditions possible in these plumes, including terminal KFLG. Sfc winds S-SW10-20g25-35kts through 02Z-03Z Tuesday, then becoming 5-15kts overnight. Sfc winds increase again later Tuesday morning, becoming S-SW10-20g25-35kts by Tuesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/00Z through Friday 03/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Smoke plumes due to wildfires may produce localized MVFR/IFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20g25-30kts with generally light winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Dry and breezy conditions forecast to continue through much of the week. A Red Flag Warning will go into effect at 10 AM MST Tuesday for portions of east central Arizona. Winds S-SW 15-25 mph, gusts 35-40 mph each day. Minimum RH values generally between 5-15% each afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry and breezy conditions will persist, keeping much of northern/central Arizona in near-critical fire weather conditions. Winds S-SW 10-20 mph, gusts 25-30 mph each day. Single digits minimum RH values forecast each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.