textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and breezy weather will continue today. Over the weekend, a weak weather disturbance will deliver cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions along with a chance of showers late Saturday into Sunday. Breezy and unsettled weather is expected to continue well into next week.

DISCUSSION

Dry westerly flow will continue today. A fast-moving shortwave will approach the state by this afternoon, bringing another round of gusty southwest winds to the region. Expect sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph, strongest over the higher terrain from Flagstaff eastward. Gusty winds persist on Saturday as a stronger trough moves onto the west coast. This system will bring an increase in moisture from west to east by late afternoon, leading to a 50-70% chance of showers by Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Colder air with the trough will bring snow levels down to around 6500 feet by early Sunday morning, with only light accumulation generally less than 1" currently forecast, and 1-2" over the higher peaks. Instability appears low but an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out through Sunday afternoon. Much cooler temperatures arrive Sunday with highs 10-15 degrees below normal. Sunday is also looking windy as the trough passes, and advisory-level gusts of 40-50 mph are possible from the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns northward.

Monday and Tuesday - drier and warmer weather is expected as the trough moves east of the state. By Wednesday and Thursday - another low from off the Pacific could impact the state and bring another chance of showers/t-storms. There is a bit more spread in the ensemble data with this one, so timing is uncertain - ranging from early Wednesday to early Friday, watch for updates.

AVIATION...Friday 24/12Z through Saturday 25/12Z

VFR conditions. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, becoming SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts after 17Z. Winds will decrease to 5-10 kts after 03-05Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 25/12Z through Monday 27/12Z...VFR conditions through 00Z Sunday. Scattered -SHRA and isolated -TSRA spread west to east after 00Z Sunday continuing through Sunday morning, then decreasing by late afternoon. Areas of MVFR with brief/localized IFR conditions in precipitation. Snow levels drop to around 6500-7000 ft msl early Sunday morning through mid day, and KFLG/KGCN will have a chance of -SHSN. Winds SW 10-20 kts, gusts 25-35 kts Saturday, increasing to 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Southwest winds increase to 15-25 mph gusting 30-35 mph due to an approaching low pressure system. Near-critical fire weather is expected in the Little Colorado River valley this afternoon. Expect increasing humidity on Saturday with a 30-60% chance for light showers developing by Saturday evening. The best chance of wetting precipitation will be along the western parts of the Mogollon Rim and the Kaibab Plateau.

Sunday through Tuesday...Light showers continue Sunday morning, decreasing by Sunday afternoon. Sunday will be the coldest day with highs 10-15 degrees below normal, warming up Monday and Tuesday. Enhanced southwest winds continue Sunday at 20-25 mph gusting 30-45 mph, though humidity will remain above critical thresholds. Southwest winds generally 10-20 mph are expected Monday and Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.