textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warm temperatures, dry conditions, and light southwest to west winds are expected today before temperatures begin a cooling trend Saturday as a trough approaches the area. Winds increase over the weekend and continue into next week with elevated fire weather conditions returning.

DISCUSSION

Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average again today with light winds before some changes begin to move into the area starting Saturday. A west coast trough begins to move towards the area which will start a cooling trend, but more noteworthy change is the uptick in the winds. Any moisture associated with this troughs stays well to the north so the air mass will remain on the dry side, which along with the elevated winds will lead to multiple days of near critical to critical fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning is in effect Saturday for our northwestern zones, with a Fire Weather Watch in effect Sunday for a good portion of Northern Arizona.

The trough will be a slow moving one and will keep our temperatures near average for most of next week. It will also keep the dry air mass over us and with continued elevated winds each afternoon, fire weather will continue to be a concern over most of the week with more headlines likely being issued as the week progresses.

AVIATION...Friday 05/06Z through Saturday 06/06Z

VFR conditions. Winds VRB 5-10 kts before 18Z, then becoming SW-NW 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 06/06Z through Monday 08/06Z...VFR conditions with W/SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts each day.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Warm and dry conditions persist today with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average, a little cooler on Saturday but still about 5 degrees above average. Winds W- NW, 10-15 mph, gusts to 25 mph today, SW-W 15-25 mph, gusts 30-35 mph Saturday. Minimum RH values 5-15% today and Saturday. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions will be reached on Saturday with a Red Flag Warning issued for the northwest zones.

Sunday through Tuesday...Critical to near critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday with a Fire Weather Watch issued for most of the area. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible again on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures cool down to near normal for the beginning of the week. Winds SW 15- 30 mph, gusts 35-40 mph Sunday, SW 15-25 mph, gusts 30-35 mph Monday, SW 20-30 mph, gusts 35-40 mph Tuesday. Minimum RH values 7- 15% Sunday, 5-12% Monday, 5-15% Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Saturday for AZZ104-106-107.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ104-106>108-111>116-139-140.