textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and windy weather will continue through midweek, with temperatures close to normal. Critical fire weather conditions are expected at times through Tuesday. Winds begin to die down by midweek with a warming trend pushing temperatures above average during the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Northern Arizona continues to be under the influence of a trough centered over the Pacific Northwest. Southwest flow aloft will continue to keep a dry air mass over us, as well as keep southwesterly winds at the surface elevated through at least the middle of the week. This will keep critical to near critical fire weather concerns in our region with a Red Flag Warning over most of northern Arizona today and a Fire Weather Watch remaining in effect for Monday and Tuesday.

By Wednesday the trough pushes eastward across the central US and a ridge centered over Texas begins to build back towards our area. This will push temperatures up to 5-10 degrees above average. The pressure gradient begins to relax which will allow our winds to ease up. Dry air still remains in place through Friday but with the lower winds that should hopefully get us out of the fire weather concerns for a couple days.

Models are showing the potential for some moisture to move up into the area starting Saturday along the return flow of the ridge. This could lead to a couple isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the highest terrain. Confidence is low at this time but something to keep an eye on as the week progresses.

AVIATION...Sunday 07/12Z through Monday 08/12Z

VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Daytime winds S-SW 15-25kts, gusts 30-40kts daytime, S-SW 5-15kts nighttime.

OUTLOOK...Monday 08/12Z through Wednesday 10/12Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Daytime winds SW 15-25kts, gusts 30-40kts, S-SW 5-15kts nighttime.

FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday

Warm, dry, and windy conditions. Near-critical to critical fire weather each day. Winds SW 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph each day. Minimum RH is 7-15% each afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of northern AZ on Sunday with a Fire Weather Watch remaining in effect for most of northern AZ on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Warm and dry, with winds diminishing some on Wednesday and Thursday. Critical to near critical fire weather conditions are possible on Tuesday with a Fire Weather Watch in effect for most of northern Arizona. Winds SW 15-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph on Tuesday, becoming SW-W 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph Wednesday, then W 10-20 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH is 5-15% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>116-139-140.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for AZZ104>117-138>140.