textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions to continue through much of the coming week. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms develop for Tuesday through Thursday, mainly over the higher terrain.

DISCUSSION

Dry and seasonably warm weather continues today. The ridge that was over the Four Corners starts to recenter, in response to a very weak trough approaching the west coast. Boundary layer high pressure to our east will maintain easterly winds, but the loss of upper level support means speeds will start to decrease.

By Tuesday, the trough moves through northern Arizona and then meanders through eastern Arizona on Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow the atmosphere to destabilize just enough to introduce a high-based convective threat Tuesday, Wednesday and maybe Thursday.

The ridge then briefly rebuilds later in the week, before possibly breaking down again next weekend, as a much more significant trough forms over the interior west.

It is next weekend or early the following week that may bring more significant weather to our area. This pattern bears watching, as some models entrain tropical moisture and perhaps even a tropical circulation. As a result, cooler temperatures and potentially a return of unsettled conditions will be possible near the end of the forecast period.

Uncertainty remains high with this, thus confidence in any exact details remains low.

AVIATION...Monday 05/12Z through Tuesday 06/12Z

Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds are not anticipated to affect flight operations, trending E-Se5-15kts in the daytime.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 06/12Z through Thursday 08/12Z...Expect VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon, coverage very sparse. Sfc winds are not anticipated to affect flight operations.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Expect mainly dry conditions with seasonably warm temperatures. A slight chance of high-based convection arrives Tuesday, but chances for wetting rains are near zero. Daytime winds east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph gusting to 20 mph on Monday, then becoming light and variable at 5 to 15 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly dry conditions and continued seasonably warm daytime temperatures. Slight chances of high-based convection continue for Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Chances for wetting rains are very low. Daytime winds on Wednesday and Thursday generally northeast through southeast at 5 to 15 mph, then becoming southerly on Friday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.