textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A few showers and cool, windy weather will persist into the early evening, before drying out overnight. Expect breezy and cool weather again on Monday, but no precipitation is expected. After a warming trend Tuesday through most of Thursday, rain shower chances return by Thursday evening through Friday.

DISCUSSION

An exiting trough to our north brought a cold front through the region this morning, with bands of rain and snow showers along the Mogollon Rim and northward. This front has since fallen apart as the trough shears northeastward, but the air mass behind the front is cold and slightly unstable. This has led to upslope shower redevelopment, mainly over the Western Mogollon Rim and the Kaibab Plateau. We are not expecting that these trailing showers will amount to much and snow level have risen above most populated and paved areas.

In addition to the precipitation, windy conditions will persist for the remainder of today, especially northeast of the Mogollon Rim and north of the White Mountains. Our Wind Advisory expires at 8 PM MST this evening and that looks fine.

Another trough passes to our north Monday. This next trough is much drier, but it will prolong the breezy and seasonably cool conditions for one more day.

On Tuesday, hghts begin to rise, ushering in a warming trend and far less wind. This continues through Thursday afternoon, before another Pacific trough moves into Arizona from the west. This next system will bring some rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. However, winds look relatively light and snow levels will be high enough that impacts are not anticipated.

Another transient ridge develops for next weekend, ahead of more minor troughs due just outside of this forecast period.

AVIATION...Monday 27/00Z through Tuesday 28/00Z

VFR conditions, cloud decks rising and clearing as the evening progresses. No precipitation expected Monday afternoon. Winds becoming light and variable after 03Z-06Z, then increasing to SW 10-20kts, gusts 25-30kts after 15-18Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 28/00Z through Thursday 30/00Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Daytime winds SW-W 5-15kts Tuesday and Wednesday, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Warmer and drier weather arrives Monday, with southwest wind gusts of 25-35 mph during the afternoon. Much lower humidity combined with gusty winds will lead to a small area of near-critical fire weather Monday afternoon on the north side of the White Mountains into the Little Colorado River Valley. On Tuesday, dry weather continues with minimum humidity at or below 15%. Otherwise, look for west to southwest wind gusts of 15-25 mph.

Wednesday through Friday...On Wednesday, expect dry weather and near normal daytime temperatures. Southwest winds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are forecast during the afternoon. Thursday, a 30-60% chance of showers is forecast due to the passage of another low pressure system, with chances for showers continuing on Friday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ009>017-039-040.