textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week, along with typical afternoon breezes.

DISCUSSION

Quasi-zonal flow largely remains in control through much of this week. As a result, gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected through at least at least Saturday. Winds look to generally remain light, however weak troughing will keep some typical spring-time afternoon breezes (20-30 mph) over the higher terrain.

A weak low looks to eject off the Pacific into the southwest early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase in PWATs from the resulting increase in moisture advection into Arizona. As of now, a few isolated afternoon showers and possibly thunderstorms look probable over the White Mountains this weekend, then potentially spreading to more of the higher terrain on Monday. Surface moisture at this point still looks fairly minimal, so much of the activity at this time looks to be high-based in nature.

AVIATION...Tuesday 19/18Z through Wednesday 20/18Z

VFR conditions. Winds are SW-W 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts before 03Z, then becoming VRB 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 20/18Z through Friday 22/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds are SW-W winds 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts each day.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday

Gradually turning warmer. Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph, with occasional afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% today, falling to 5- 15% on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday....Continued dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.