textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect above normal temperatures today, with windy and cooler weather for Thursday. Cool and less windy for Friday. There is a slight chance for some light rain or snow showers over far northern Arizona from Thursday afternoon into Friday. Low pressure over northern Mexico brings a slight chance of showers over the southern half of the state Saturday through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Well above normal temperatures are forecast again today, along with afternoon southwesterly breezes of 10-20 mph in response to a trough approaching from the northwest. The main part of this trough will move eastward through our area on Thursday, with a portion of it hanging back and eventually forming a closed low over northern Mexico by the weekend. A stout cold front will move southeastward through the state on Thursday, entering the NW corner by sunrise and then Prescott/Flagstaff by late morning and the AZ/NM line by late afternoon/early evening. Southwest winds will be strongest ahead of the front, favoring areas from the eastern Mogollon Rim/White Mtns northward through the Little Colorado River Valley. These areas are forecast to see wind gusts of 40-45 mph through the afternoon and early evening, and we have issued a Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM Thursday. Temperatures Thursday will be 10-15 degrees cooler for most areas, with gusty winds making for a chilly day in the high country. There will also be a 10-20% chance of some light snow showers primarily over the northern 1/3 of the state Thursday afternoon into Friday but these don't appear significant at this point.

Saturday through Tuesday - forecast guidance is good agreement in forming a closed low over northern Baja by Saturday and Sunday, then ejecting it east-northeastward by Monday and Tuesday. The best chance for any shower activity will be over southern Arizona through the weekend, possibly spreading north by Monday. For now, PoPs in our area are 10% Saturday and Sunday, increasing to 20-40% by Monday. Right now, the forecast temperatures support precipitation mainly in the form of rain.

AVIATION...Wednesday 04/12Z through Thursday 05/12Z

VFR conditions. Winds VRB before 18Z, then becoming S/SW 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 05/12Z through Saturday 07/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds W/SW 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts on Thursday, with higher speeds of 15-25 kts gusting up to 40 kts near KINW/KSJN. Winds becoming N/NW 5-10 kts on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday

Mild and dry conditions today, before cooler temperatures set in on Thursday. Isolated showers possible over far northern Arizona on Thursday, but wetting rains are unlikely. Southwest winds 5-15 mph, becoming west/southwest 10- 20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Cool on Friday, then turning warmer. Slight chance for an isolated shower near the Arizona-Utah border on Friday, with dry conditions on Saturday. Rain chances increase on Sunday, mainly across central Arizona. Northwest winds 5-15 mph on Friday, becoming northeast/east over the weekend.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for AZZ012>014-016- 017-039-040.