textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions are expected, with seasonable temperatures and occasionally breezy conditions, mainly along the Mogollon Rim and other higher terrain features.
DISCUSSION
As a 500 mb low pushes south of AZ through the weekend, skies are becoming clear and the pressure gradient will strengthen. This will create breezy conditions today that start to enhance some drying of still saturated soils. Winds will be out of the north to northeast around 5-15 mph in most areas with gusts to 20-35 mph along and south/southwest of the higher terrain.
Monday through Thursday, a mostly dry and mild weather pattern is expected. A weak short-wave trough is expected to cross through southern Arizona on Tuesday, but moisture will be very limited and is unlikely that more than an isolated shower or two will develop, mainly near the White Mountains. Looking further into the weekend, ensemble models continue to show a deepening west coast trough that becomes a cut-off low as it moves over the United States. Most models continue to favor a track that keeps the low sufficiently south to limit moisture returns into the region. However, a shift northward could bring another round of showers to our area by Friday.
AVIATION...Saturday 07/12Z through Sunday 08/12Z
VFR conditions prevail, low clouds and fog along the north/northeast side of the Mogollon Rim are eroding early this morning. Surface winds E-NE at 5-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts today, generally stronger in the daytime and over higher terrain. Winds decrease to 5-10 kts tonight.
OUTLOOK...Sunday 08/12Z through Tuesday 10/12Z...Expect VFR conditions with mostly clear skies, winds generally E-NE at 5-10 kts.
FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday
Dry weather returns this weekend with near normal temperatures. North to northeast winds increase to 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph today, then decrease 5-10 mph for Sunday.
Monday through Wednesday...Expect dry conditions and seasonable temperatures to continue. Light and variable winds on Monday and Tuesday, becoming north to northeast 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH holds between 25-45% each day.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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