textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue for southern Apache County, especially this morning. The remainder of the area will be dry, with dry conditions spreading to all locations by later today and Sunday. Typical fall weather will develop, with seasonable high temperatures and colder overnight lows. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return by Tuesday of net week, lingering for the rest of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

A trough axis is taking forever to make its way through Arizona tonight, as the parent upper low meanders through the northern Great Basin and eventually into Wyoming. This allowed for continued moisture transport into eastern Arizona, specifically Apache County in our CWA. Showers and thunderstorms will continue over this area until around daybreak, when the drier air finally arrives.

At this point, the remainder of the weekend will be dry for all of the area, as dew points drop into the lower 30s, maybe even upper 20s. This means some some cold mornings, especially Sunday morning. A few pockets of freezing temperatures may develop in sheltered valleys above 6500 feet.

By early next week, a new upper low arrives, this time taking a more southern route. Dynamics and renewed southerly flow will once again move moisture northward, allowing for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to form, mainly by Tuesday. This will not be a deep moisture push like we saw a few days ago, but definitely enough to bring PoPs back into the picture.

This pattern hangs out for the remainder of the week, especially over the eastern zones, as a possible sub-tropical push develops. We will keep seasonable temperatures and a mention of isolated to scattered convection in the picture a a result, basically from late Monday/early Tuesday onward.

AVIATION...Saturday 19/18Z through Sunday 20/18Z

Primarily VFR conditions. Very ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA across southern Navajo and Apache counties through 02Z. Winds are SW 10-20 kts through 02Z, light and VRB overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 20/18Z through Tuesday 22/18Z...Primarily VFR conditions. Winds are S-SW 10-15 kts each afternoon, light and VRB each night. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA may return Monday evening/night. .

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday

Turning much drier this weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible over southern Apache County, mainly this morning. Convective activity is not expected for Sunday. Dry air will lead to much colder overnight lows, especially Sunday morning. Southwesterly winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly dry conditions continue Monday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms then return for Tuesday and Wednesday. South through southwest winds 10 to 15 mph for Monday and Tuesday, becoming light and variable for Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.