textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week and into the weekend, along with typical afternoon breezes.

DISCUSSION

Aside from weak troughing over the west, quasi- zonal flow largely remains in control through much of this week. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected through at least at least Saturday as a result. Winds look to generally remain light, however the aforementioned troughing will keep some typical spring- time afternoon breezes (20-30 mph) over the higher terrain.

A weak low looks to eject off the Pacific into the southwest early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase in PWATs from the resulting increase in moisture advection into Arizona. As of now, a few isolated afternoon showers and possibly thunderstorms look probable over the White Mountains as early as Sunday, then potentially spreading to more of the higher terrain for Monday and Tuesday. However, surface moisture at this point still looks fairly minimal, so much of the activity at this time looks to be high-based in nature.

AVIATION...Wednesday 20/12Z through Thursday 21/12Z

VFR conditions. Daytime winds W/SW 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 21/12Z through Saturday 23/12Z...VFR conditions. Daytime winds W/SW 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday

Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph with gusts 20- 25 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%.

Friday through Sunday....Continued dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% on Friday, rising to 10-20% over the weekend.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.