textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Cooler and drier conditions are expected the remainder of today, with chances for showers and a stray thunderstorm returning over the weekend. Gradually warmer and dry conditions set in for the start of next week.

DISCUSSION...For the remainder of today and tonight

Expect fair and dry weather with generally light winds and seasonable temperatures under dry southwest flow aloft.

On Saturday and Sunday...A weak low pressure system will make its way across Arizona. Look for generally light winds with temperatures fairly typical for this time of year. The low will bring with it some moisture and cooler air aloft for a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best chances will be Saturday afternoon as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. This is a much weaker storm than what we have just seen with precipitation amounts ranging from a trace to 0.20 inches. The low slowly heads eastward on Sunday with a stabilizing layer of warmer air aloft moving in over much of the area. However, at least slight chances will continue over the Four Corners and along the Utah border over the higher terrain.

From Monday into Thursday...Models are showing a fair and dry southwest flow developing over the area. Look for a bit warmer temperatures and generally light winds. Expect some cloud increase late in the period in advance of another Pacific low.

Next Friday...Another low pressure system headed for our area? Forecast models think that's a possibility. Something to keep an eye on as we head through next week.

AVIATION...Friday 23/18Z through Saturday 24/18Z

VFR conditions. Winds S/SW 5-10 kts, 10-20 kts across eastern Arizona during the daytime, becoming light and VRB after 02Z. Patchy MVFR CIGS over the higher terrain is possible after 10Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 24/18Z through Monday 26/18Z...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/- TSRA over the higher terrain Saturday afternoon, and again Sunday afternoon near the AZ/NM border. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR with VRB winds 5-10 kts for most of Northern Arizona, while S-SW of 10-20 kt are possible around KJTC, due to stronger flow in New Mexico and extending into the White Mountains.

FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Sunday

Drier conditions will continue through the rest of this afternoon and tonight before chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the higher terrain on Saturday. For Sunday, Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across eastern Arizona and the higher terrain of far northern Arizona, such as the Kaibab Plateau. South/southwest winds 5-10 mph, with breezier winds 10-20 mph across eastern Arizona this afternoon and Saturday, with winds becoming variable 5-10 mph Sunday for most of the region, though south/southwest winds 10-20 mph are expected around the White Mountains.

Monday through Wednesday...Drier and warmer conditions set in for Monday through Wednesday. Winds variable 5-10 mph for Monday, becoming south to southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday with no notable change in wind speed expected.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.