textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mostly dry and mild conditions expected through the weekend, outside of a slight chance of showers across eastern Arizona. Unsettled and cooler weather looks to return early next week.

DISCUSSION

A weak shortwave will cross through northern and northeast Arizona through this evening, pushing into New Mexico on Saturday. This wave will allow temperatures to become slightly cooler and with limited moisture only some isolated high-based showers and virga across the higher terrain pushing eastward this evening. A few light showers will be possible again on Saturday, with shower activity likely confined to Apache County and mainly across the higher terrain. Dry air will then quickly move into the region with dry conditions area wide by Saturday evening.

A weak ridge will then move across the region on Sunday as a closed Pacific low moves into southern California. The gradient tightens up and winds will start to increase out of the south-southwest on Sunday. As the low pushes to the east winds will increase further and become quite gusty, peaking on Monday. Winds on Sunday will be around 10-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph on Monday.

The southerly flow will be able to tap into a better moisture pool, which will initially translate to increased cloud cover to start the week. We may see a few showers develop on Sunday, mainly across northern Arizona. Conditions will dry out on Monday with chances for showers returning on Tuesday as the low moves across the state.

The lack of appreciable precipitation lately has certainly dried things out this spring. RH values look to drop down into the teens on Monday, especially across the Little Colorado River Valley and Navajo Nation. We may see some areas with elevated fire weather concerns on Monday due to the strong winds but widespread conditions look unlikely to occur.

The low will bring cooler temperatures to the region and they look to last through at least the mid-week period. As the low pushes off to the east for the second half of the week, we should see temperatures start to to rise with drier weather returning as high pressure builds into the region.

AVIATION...Saturday 02/00Z through Sunday 03/00Z

Expect VFR conditions. Extensive SC/CU, with bases from 10-12kft AGL, will dissipate slowly after sunset. Some VIRGA/very light rain showers are possible under these clouds through 02Z-03Z. Sfc winds are not anticipated to create flight restrictions. NE drainage winds just SW of higher terrain tonight 10-20kts, including terminal KSEZ.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 03/00Z through Tuesday 05/00Z...Expect VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA on Sunday, mainly north and east of the Mogollon Rim and from 18Z-02Z. Drier on Monday. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20g25kts on Sunday, increasing to SW15-25g30-35kts on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday

Chance for showers and sprinkles over the White Mountains on Saturday, then slight chance from the Mogollon Rim northward on Sunday. Winds generally southeast through south 5-15 mph on Saturday, becoming south through southwest 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH is 10-25% on Saturday, then 15-30% on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry on Monday, then a 20-40% chance for showers from the Mogollon Rim northward on Tuesday, decreasing to a 10-20% chance on Wednesday. Winds southwest 15-25 mph on Monday, subsiding to 10-20 mph on Tuesday, turning northwest 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH is 10-25% on Monday, 20-40% on Tuesday, then 15-30% on Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.