textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures and scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through much of this week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure will settle over the Four Corners region today, then pushes slightly to the east this week. This high will be in a very favorable position for increases monsoon activity as moisture advects into the region on the strengthening southeasterly flow.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue early this morning across the region as remnant outflows gradually move through the area. While these overnight storms are not expected to be severe, some brief heavy rain and strong, gusty winds will be possible as the move off to the west/northwest through daybreak.

For today, moisture will continue to increase across the region and we will see scattered to widespread showers develop. With the high in place over the Four Corners and the moisture surging into the region, we will see cooler temperatures across the area, and no heat headlines are expected for at least the next several day. Storms are expected to initiate across the higher terrain by early afternoon, with a west to northwest motion. The increase in moisture will result in PWATs between 1.00-1.50", and storms will be capable of producing heavy/very heavy rainfall with flash flooding becoming a primary concern. With the activity early this morning, we may have more debris cloud coverage which in turn may delay storm initiation into this afternoon.

The active monsoon looks to continue through much of the week with daily scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain leading to flash flooding will be the main hazard of concern through the week. Several models are pointing to a disturbance pushing up from Sonora which may help to keep convection going during eh overnight periods. By Friday, some dry air will start to push into the region. However, we do not fully dry out and while it may not be as active there will still be showers and thunderstorms around.

AVIATION...Monday 10/06Z through Tuesday 11/06Z

Storm activity is on the decline the evening, with only a few isolated storms remaining. Outside of storm activity, expect light overnight winds. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA will develop again after 19Z, with the greatest storm activity along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KJJN line. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess of 40 kts are possible in and around +TS. Storm activity is forecast to decrease after 03Z, with isolated showers and storms persisting overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/06Z through Thursday 13/06Z...Mainly VFR, with widespread SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA each day from 19Z-03Z, especially over the higher terrain. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess of 40 kts possible in and around +TS. Otherwise, daytime winds W/SW 5-15 kts, becoming light and VRB overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday

Cooler temperatures with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Stronger storms may contain heavy rain, hail, and gusty/erratic winds. Outside of storms, expect variable winds around 5-15 mph.

Wednesday through Friday...Below normal temperatures with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. Outside of storms, expect west to southwest winds around 5-15 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.