textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will influence our weather through the weekend and into next week. Increasing moisture will bring isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms, becoming more focused over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through the next week.

DISCUSSION

Strong high pressure settling across the Desert Southwest this weekend will influence our weather over the next week. The high is situated to our southeast this afternoon and return flow around the high is dragging some moisture northward into Arizona. Dew points to our south have crept up into the 30s but in our area we are solidly in the teens to 20s. With such dry air in place at the surface, it will take a bit to moisten up the layer and any shower activity that does develop will struggle to reach the ground. CAMs are hit or miss with current radar returns but all show some sort of moisture advection into the region. Largely expect an increase in cloud cover with some virga showers or sprinkles across the region this afternoon. Can't rule out an outside chance for a more robust shower or brief thunderstorm, though best chances are across the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing outflow gusts up to 35 mph into the early evening before we lose our best instability.

The high starts to shift to the west on Sunday, which may allow for a slightly better moisture pull but overall chances look similar to those of today. The best chances continue to remain across the higher terrain for Sunday.

The high strengthens and pushes further to the west at the start of the week. AS the week progresses the high will start to move back to the east but ends up settling well to our north by the end of the week. This may ultimately limit moisture advection into the region, especially across western portions of the forecast area, with the best chances for showers or storms remaining towards the White Mountains with some isolated chances along the Mogollon Rim through the week. With the high to our north at the end of the week, we lose the best fetch and moisture looks like it dwindles. The flow may become more northeast-east than east-southeast, so not ideal for continued monsoon chances. Any shift in the location of the high may impact our chances so don't give up hope just yet that we may see a more favorable pattern develop as we go through the week. Overall, chances for widespread storms looks marginal and most of the expected activity looks to only bring some light precipitation amounts to the region.

AVIATION...Sunday 05/00Z through Monday 06/00Z

VFR conditions, with occasional MVFR CIGS/VIS in HZ/FU near KFLG/KSEZ. FU will impact KFLG mainly during the afternoon, and KSEZ mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Winds light and VRB, becoming S/SW 5-15 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 06/00Z through Wednesday 08/00Z...VFR conditions, with occasional MVFR CIGS/VIS in HZ/FU near KFLG/KSEZ. Winds S-W 5- 15 kts each day, becoming light and VRB overnight. Gusty outflow winds possible in and around ISO -SHRA/-TSRA, mainly over the higher terrain each afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Monsoon moisture begins moving into the area, primarily increasing in the mid-levels. As a result, the forecast only calls for a 10-20% chance of light showers over high terrain, with even lower chances for thunderstorms. Because surface conditions remain quite dry, minimum humidity is forecast to range from 10-20% both afternoons, and the chances for wetting rain are less than 10%. The primary concerns are outflow wind gusts up to 35 mph, along with new fire starts if a few thunderstorms do develop. Otherwise, expect southwest winds 10-20 mph and gusts 20-30 mph each afternoon, with the higher gusts on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures warm to above normal. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain in eastern Arizona each afternoon. Winds southwest 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph and minimum RH values between 5-20% each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.