textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Cooler and drier conditions are expected for today, with chances for showers returning over the weekend. Gradually warmer and dry conditions set in for the start of next week.

DISCUSSION...Today

A cold front has move eastward across Arizona as the parent upper-level low propagates eastward. Drier air has been ushered into much of the state as of this morning, with dewpoints falling to into the 30s F and 40s F across northern Arizona. PWAT has also dropped, with the FGZ RAOB falling from 0.72 inches at 18Z to 0.53 inches by 00Z. As such, cooler and drier conditions are expected to prevail across the region today.

While dry air has moved in, flooding on area waterways remains a threat through this morning after the prolonged rainfall from the past 48 hours. Water levels should gradually fall through this morning, but will likely still remain elevated into much of the day today.

Saturday and Sunday...A fragment of the aforementioned upper-level low looks to break off from the jet, becoming a closed-low over Arizona over the weekend. Cool temperatures look to remain, but precipitation chances look to creep back into the region. The most likely chances for rain and potentially an isolated thunderstorm will mainly be over the higher terrain on Saturday, shifting into eastern Arizona on Sunday.

Monday through Thursday...As the closed-low lifts into Colorado, weak ridging, or even quasi-zonal flow looks to build into the southwest. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions look to prevail into much of next week. A deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest looks to potentially breakdown this pattern near the end of next week, however model guidance remains uncertain in the exact track of the low.

AVIATION...Friday 23/12Z through Saturday 24/12Z

VFR conditions. Winds S/SW 5-10 kts, 10-20 kts across eastern Arizona, becoming light and VRB after 02Z. Patchy MVFR CIGS over the higher terrain through 14Z, and potentially again after 10Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 24/12Z through Monday 26/12Z...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/- TSRA over the higher terrain Saturday afternoon, and again Sunday afternoon near the AZ/NM border. Brief MVFR conditions possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR with VRB winds 5-10 kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Drier and cooler conditions set in for today, before chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the higher terrain on Saturday. South/southwest winds 5-10 mph, with breezier winds 10-20 mph across eastern Arizona.

Sunday through Tuesday...Isolated showers and storms remain on Sunday across eastern Arizona. Drier and warmer conditions set in for Monday and Tuesday. Winds variable 5-10 mph for Sunday and Monday, becoming south on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.