textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Arizona remains under an active pattern through the end of the week. An area of high pressure looks to briefly build over Arizona this weekend, keeping things rather dry. Additional unsettled weather may return next week. Outside of precipitation, look for seasonable temperatures and breezy southwest winds.

DISCUSSION

A large area of low pressure remains centered across the Pacific Northwest. This trough will gradually descend along the West Coast through the middle of the week, before lifting towards the weekend. This will keep Arizona under a southwesterly flow aloft, allowing sufficient moisture to continue pumping into the state. Plus, this pattern will keep effective dynamics in place for a severe thunderstorm threat. Although we are not expecting widespread activity for today (Tuesday), hi-res guidance suggests greatest coverage of convection to be across the Mogollon Rim and northward. There could be a delayed start to activity due to a few showers/storms that are occurring during the overnight hours tonight. Most activity is across northern Gila County and the White Mountains at the moment, but this could easily work over the environment and lead way to debris clouds across the area after sunrise. Areas that see cloud cover burn off and warm up, will likely be where storms/showers fire up first.

This type of synoptic pattern leads way to greater chances for overnight convection. Hi-res guidance has been consistent with a large complex of showers/storms pushing up into our CWA Wednesday morning, and remaining fairly active throughout the afternoon/early evening. For what it's worth, guidance over the last few days hasn't been the most consistent, so we'll see what upcoming runs say as well. Either way, we'll remain under an active pattern through the end of the week.

We could see a brief break in activity over the weekend due to the previously mentioned trough lifting and allowing a ridge to build over the region. There will probably be a few isolated showers/storms remaining across the White Mountains, but overall should be drier this weekend than what we've seen this week.

Another trough looks to impact the area early next week, so more unsettled weather may return. Stay tuned.

AVIATION...Tuesday 15/12Z through Wednesday 16/12Z

Mostly VFR conditions forecast through the period, but periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible from low clouds and/or heavier SHRA/TSRA. Outside of gusty/erratic storm driven winds, expect south through southwest winds 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 16/12Z through Friday 18/12Z...Overnight/early morning low ceilings possible through the period, along with periods of MVFR/IFR conditions from heavier SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. Outside of gusty storm driven winds, expect south through southwest winds 5-15 kts gusting near 20 kts each afternoon becoming lighter overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue each day, and we cannot rule out the possibility of overnight activity too. Gusty/erratic winds likely in/around storms, with southerly winds 5-15 mph otherwise. Temperatures will gradually cool each day, landing 5-10 degrees below normal by Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms forecast for Thursday, becoming more focused across the eastern Rim, White Mountains, and Chuska Mountains Friday and Saturday. Outside of gusty/erratic storm driven winds, look for south through west winds 5-15 mph. Temperatures expected to slightly warm near normal through the weekend.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.