textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Fair and much warmer weather moves in today and will continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure will dominate the weather across northern Arizona over the coming days with dry weather, mainly clear skies and much above average temperatures.

Today through early next week...Under the influence of high pressure aloft temperatures will range from 10 to 15 degrees above average through Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Even with dry conditions low temperatures will range from 5 to 10 degrees above average, thus is the warmth of the coming air mass. As mentioned, most locations will see dry conditions into next week. However, models continue to show the ridge axis shifting east of Arizona with a more southerly flow eventually developing. This could open the door to a slight increase in moisture and the potential for high-based showers and thunderstorms by Monday or Tuesday, mainly over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Expect light and variable winds today but for the remainder of the period, typical spring breezes at 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

AVIATION...Thursday 07/18Z through Friday 08/18Z

VFR conditions. Winds light and variable, generally less than 10 kts through the period.

OUTLOOK...Friday 08/18Z through Sunday 10/18Z...VFR conditions. Daytime winds W/NW 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts on Friday, increasing to 10-20 kts on Saturday with gusts 20-25 kts. Winds overnight mainly light and VRB.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday

Dry conditions and turning warmer. Light and variable winds today becoming west/northwest at 5-15 mph on Friday. Minimum afternoon RH 8-15% both days.

Saturday through Monday...Warm and mainly dry conditions. By Monday, the White Mountains area could see high-based showers/thunderstorms. We'll keep you posted. Winds west/northwest at 10-20 mph on Saturday, light and variable on Sunday, then becoming southwest 5-15 mph on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.