textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Isolated showers and thunderstorms linger across eastern Arizona through this afternoon. Gradually warmer and dry conditions are expected through at least the middle of this week. Unsettled weather may return late in the week.

DISCUSSION

A cut off low centered over northern Arizona today, will move to the north and east through tonight. This system has been keeping cooler temperatures across the region with dry air starting to fill in from west to east. However, moisture continues to linger, especially across eastern Arizona, where isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon. Rainfall amounts look to be light though a few heavier showers are possible.

For Monday through the end of the week...The low lifts out of the region and the flow becomes more zonal across the area. A couple of troughs look to pass to the north of the region through the week but remain far enough away that we see no impacts from them. Warming temperatures are expected with drier conditions returning to the region. This pattern looks to hold through about midweek, then we start to see troughing develop to the west. The trough starts to dig down from the Pacific Northwest but won't move through the region until the weekend/early next week. Meanwhile, the increasing southerly flow will allow for tropical/sub-tropical moisture to be pulled back into the Desert Southwest. Models are in fair agreement on the low tracking through the Great Basin next weekend, but several waves moving through the flow will move across Arizona and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday onward. Additional rainfall on our already saturated grounds may cause new flooding concerns. Definitely a system we want to keep an eye on as we go through the week. Stay tuned!

AVIATION...Monday 26/00Z through Tuesday 27/00Z

Primarily VFR conditions. Localized MVFR conditions in ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA northeast of a KPGA-KRQE line through 02Z. Winds are light and VRB at 5-10 kts through the period.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 27/00Z through Thursday 29/00Z...VFR conditions. Winds are SW 5-15 kts each day. Light and VRB or terrain driven winds each night.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Dry conditions and turning a bit warmer. Light and variable winds on Monday becoming southwest at 5-15 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures through Wednesday with daytime winds south to southwest 5-15 mph. Thursday will see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late, becoming likely on Friday. Southwest winds at 10- 20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph both Thursday and Friday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.