textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions remain through Thursday. Moisture than increases through the end of the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.

DISCUSSION...Today and Thursday

Warm and dry conditions look to prevail for today and tomorrow. Afternoon highs are currently forecast to be around 5-10 degrees above normal for this point in the year. Lighter, more typical afternoon breezes are also expected.

Friday through Tuesday...A weak low moving northward along the California Baja looks to initiate a northward surge of sub-tropical moisture into Arizona. As a result, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms look to set in for Friday and into the weekend. Warmer temperatures look to remain on Friday, however cooler, more normal temperatures are expected to set in by the weekend.

Some higher-based activity can be expected on Friday, mainly across central Arizona, but model soundings show deeper moisture quickly moving in by Saturday. Ensemble guidance seems to largely be in agreement that PWATs should peak on Saturday, thus coverage looks to peak on this day as well. Precipitation chances look to continue into Sunday as well, though the focus looks to begin to shift eastward.

Gusty winds will be the main threats on Friday, along with brief heavy downpours but the threat quickly transitions to primarily a flash flooding threat by the weekend. While this is still typically the driest point in the year, it is worth noting that PWATs are forecast to be near-record values for these days. The 12Z 06/13 record for the day at FGZ is 0.87 inches, while the current forecast is for 0.85-0.95 inches.

Another weak trough looks to brush past Arizona to the north early next week. Moisture looks to largely be suppressed to the south once again, with only isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms remaining into Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION...Thursday 11/00Z through Friday 12/00Z

VFR conditions. SW-W 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts, becoming VRB at 5-10 kts after 03Z. SW-W winds around 10 kts gusting 20 kts return after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 12/00Z through Sunday 14/00Z...VFR conditions. Daytime winds are SW-W 5-15 kts on Friday and Saturday, generally subsiding to 5-10 kts each night. Isolated -TSRA Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, then scattered -TSRA Saturday afternoon with slight chance of MVFR.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Warm and dry on Thursday, then a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Friday. Winds are southwest through west 5-15 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH is 8-12% on Thursday, then 8-16% on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Warm with chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Best chances for storms are on Saturday and Sunday afternoon, then activity declines into Monday. Winds are southwest through west 10-20 mph on Saturday and Sunday, then turning west though northwest on Monday. Minimum RH is 15-25% on Saturday and Sunday, then 10-20% on Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ006.