textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the downturn over most of the area by this evening. However a few isolated showers are still possible tonight through Tuesday afternoon across far northeastern Arizona. A trough over the Great Basin will keep temperatures below average the rest of the week with increased winds midweek.

DISCUSSION

Upper level low is currently generating numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area at this time. A few storms could be strong at times with strong downburst winds and some small hail. Precipitation amounts will range from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch over the high deserts to a quarter to a third of an inch over the Rim and White Mountains with isolated areas potentially picking up as much as half an inch. As the low starts to transit the state heading off to the northeast late this afternoon and tonight, along with loss of daytime heating, most of the showers and storms should dissipate. However a few showers will linger overnight through midday Tuesday as some wrap around moisture remains over the far northeast corner of the state.

After this low moves out of the area, the region remains under general troughing as an upper level low parks over the Great Basin. The low should remain too far north to draw in enough moisture to give us any precipitation. However it will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees below late May averages and generate some breezy conditions Wednesday into Thursday with southwesterly winds reaching 20-25 mph, gusts 30-40 mph. With RH values trending a little lower than previously thought midweek we could be reaching near critical fire conditions over the northeast desert zones. Will continue to monitor and see if fire weather issues could be a concern.

By the weekend a ridge building in the center of the country will put the region under a southwesterly flow aloft which keeps things dry and brings temperatures back up to seasonal averages.

AVIATION...Tuesday 26/06Z through Wednesday 27/06Z

Expect VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA the remainder of the night, ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA, mainly northern Apache County Tuesday afternoon. Sfc winds light overnight, then S-SW10-20g25-30kts AFT 17Z-19Z Tuesday. Winds decreasing AFT sunset Tuesday night, but staying elevated in the 10-20kt range.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 27/06Z through Friday 29/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW15-25g30-45kts both days. Winds stay elevated each night, ranging from 10-20g25kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Wednesday

Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through tonight with areas of wetting rain along with cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty and/or erratic winds. Drier air moves in on Tuesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms lingering toward the Four Corners and along the Arizona/New Mexico border. Tuesday will see south to southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph on Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH decreases to 10-20% on Tuesday.

Thursday through Saturday....Dry and warmer. Expect south to southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph on Thursday. Winds diminishing to southwest at 5-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph on Friday then 5-10 mph gusting to 20 mph on Saturday. Afternoon minimum RH between 10-20% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.