textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect an active Monsoon pattern today, likely extending into the night as deep moisture moves across the region. Activity tapers off a bit for Saturday, but daily chances continue through the weekend and into at least early next week, as favorable flow and moisture patterns continue.

DISCUSSION

Moisture values rose dramatically overnight as a series of weak s/wvs, located well to our north, induced a surge over the southern deserts. The 18Z sounding from KFGZ indicated robust moisture and instability values, along with some shear. We expect a very active day as a result. Back-building storms may prolong the activity well into the night, especially south and east of Flagstaff.

In the wake of the convection today and tonight, we expect a quiet start for Saturday, due to debris cloud and cooler temperatures. However, convection south of our CWA SAturday may push into the area Saturday evening, mainly the southern and southeastern zones.

This pattern continues off and on for the reminder of the forecast period. Occasional surges of moisture and s/wvs to our north will basically alternate active and suppressed days through next Friday.

AVIATION...Saturday 12/00Z through Sunday 13/00Z

Mainly VFR conditions, MVFR possible near +TS. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA continue across much of northern AZ through the late evening then a slight chance to continue overnight. Stronger storms may contain hail and gusty/erratic winds to 40 kts. ISOLD-SCT storms return mostly along the higher terrain after 18Z. Winds SW-W 10-20kts with gusts to 25kts through 03Z, becoming light and VRB or terrain driven overnight, then SW-W 10-20 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 13/00Z through Tuesday 15/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions, brief MVFR near heavier thunderstorms. ISOLD-SCT storms each day between 18Z and 03Z. Winds SW-W 10-20kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday

Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue, but will likely not be as active as Friday. Storms will favor the central and east-central portions of the district, but will not be solely limited to those areas. Expect daily southwest winds 10 to 20 mph and daytime temperatures around normal.

Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue, especially Monday and Tuesday. Expect afternoon southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to near 25 mph each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.