textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions today. A weak storm system then passes to the south, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and chances for scattered light showers Thursday and Friday. High pressure builds into Arizona over the weekend, ushering in a return of warmer temperatures and dry conditions.

DISCUSSION...Today

Zonal flow keeps near-normal to slightly cooler than normal temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast again today. A weak shortwave passing to the north may lead to a subtle uptick in winds this afternoon, however gusts look to largely remain under 25 mph.

Thursday and Friday...A trough looks to move across northern Mexico on Thursday, which leading to a subtle moisture increase over portions of Arizona. However, given that much of the large-scale dynamics and deeper moisture will be limited to the southern portions of the state, precipitation chances remain slim overall for northern Arizona. A weak shortwave looks to approach from the north later in the day, which may lead to a slight uptick in precipitation chances later in the day. Nevertheless, any activity that does develop will be isolated in nature and light.

Better chances ensue Friday afternoon, especially over the higher terrain as the aforementioned shortwave moves overhead. However, as previously mentioned, limited moisture (especially at the surface) will keep coverage mainly isolated. Overall, the best chances for precipitation will remain mainly over eastern Arizona.

Behind the shortwave, winds quickly shift around to the north and northeast on Friday with the passage of the front. While winds for the duration of the period look to remain fairly light, locally gusty winds do look to develop behind the front. This will be especially true for areas downwind (southwest) of the higher terrain Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday through Monday...High pressure looks to build over Arizona for the weekend, leading to a return of warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Light winds look to prevail for much of the weekend as well, aside from locally breezy northeasterly winds during the overnight hours.

Guidance signals towards the potential for a cut-off low developing off the California Coast early next week, and ejecting off the Pacific as early as Monday. Should this trend continue, unsettled conditions could return early next week, with gusty winds and cooler temperatures looking probable.

AVIATION...Wednesday 29/12Z through Thursday 30/12Z

VFR conditions. Winds W/SW 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts from 18Z to 02Z, otherwise VRB 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 30/12Z through Saturday 02/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions. ISO -SHRA after 21Z Thursday, mainly over the higher terrain. SCT -SHRA and ISO TSRA possible Friday afternoon, mainly across eastern Arizona. Winds W/NW 5-10 kts on Thursday, becoming NW-NE on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday

Seasonable temperatures and mainly dry conditions, outside of a slight chance for light showers on Thursday. The best chances for precipitation will mainly be from the Mogollon Rim into eastern Arizona. Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph today, becoming west/northwest on Thursday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% each day.

Friday through Sunday...Precipitation chances continue into Friday, mainly north and east of the Mogollon Rim. Drier and warmer conditions return over the weekend. Winds northwest through northeast 5-15 mph on Friday, variable 5-10 mph on Saturday, then becoming south/southwest on Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-30% on Friday, falling to 10-25% over the weekend.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.