textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warming temperatures and lighter winds are expected for the rest of this weekend and into next week. Most areas will remain dry, but chances for showers and thunderstorms increase by the middle of next week, mainly for southern Navajo and Apache counties.

DISCUSSION

Dry and relatively stable westerly aloft, along with rising hghts, will define much of the upcoming forecast period. This means a warming trend, with temperatures rising to around normal and then above normal for the next several days. Daytime winds will stay in the normal, diurnal range, nothing that will bring any impacts. As far as moisture, as we stated, things are pretty dry. However, we expect hghts to rise enough by Wednesday/Thursday that some moisture may sneak in under the ridge from the east and southeast. This could lead to some convective activity, but even that possibility will be short-lived, as dry westerlies move back into the forecast by next weekend.

AVIATION...Sunday 31/12Z through Monday 01/12Z

Expect VFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 01/12Z through Wednesday 03/12Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20kts. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA over southern Apache County by Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Dry conditions and a warming trend. Expect southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly over southern Navajo and Apache counties. Surface conditions will remain dry for most areas, but higher dew points will be found near the shower activity. Expect southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.