textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A chance of showers and thunderstorms moves in across the area today with a few showers lingering over the northeastern corner of the state into Wednesday. Fair and warmer weather returns for Thursday and the weekend.

DISCUSSION

The center of an approaching low pressure system was located along the southern California coast early Tuesday morning. over the next couple of days this low will move across Arizona delivering a good chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms. Starting Thursday high pressure will usher in fair weather and much warmer temperatures which will last into early next week.

Today and Wednesday...The California low will move across Arizona from west to east bringing cooler air aloft along with dynamics for vertical lift which will interact with moisture already in place. Consequently, we're looking at a good chance of showers today across much of northern Arizona. The threat of thunderstorms will arrive in the afternoon as daytime heating helps create additional instability. The low weakens and moves to the southeast by Wednesday morning but a secondary shortwave will brush the Four Corners area. The result will be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms toward the Four Corners area where dynamics will be the strongest. Away from the trough, only slight chances for showers across the Mogollon Rim and Little Colorado River Valley. Storm total precipitation amounts will be somewhat limited generally in the 0.10-0.20 inch range from today through Wednesday. The very highest mountains peaks will see some snow accumulation, 1 or 2 inches at best. Daytime temperatures will drop another 5-10 degrees today compared to Monday with the passing low but rebound upward by about 5-10 degrees on Wednesday as the low heads southeastward. Winds will remain breezy from the southwest at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on today but as the low weakens and moves to the southeast lighter northwest winds will develop on Wednesday.

For Thursday through the weekend...Dry and warmer with primarily light breezes as a shortwave ridge develops over the southwest United States.

AVIATION...Tuesday 05/12Z through Wednesday 06/12Z

Expect isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA today, most numerous between 20-03Z. Along with the showers, look for areas of MVFR/IFR conditions to develop across the higher terrain. Showers tapering off and improving conditions from west to east after 03Z. Winds becoming S-SW at 15-25 kts gusting to 30 kts after 15Z, then diminishing following sunset.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 06/12Z through Friday 08/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions forecast. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible mainly along and north of the Mogollon Rim on Wednesday. Winds SW-W at 10-20 kts Wednesday morning, becoming NW 10-20 kts Wednesday afternoon, then N at 5-15 kts on Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday

Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today over most of northern Arizona. Shower and thunderstorm chances become confined to the northeastern corner of the state Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will generally be light although some areas over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains could see a wetting rain. Winds southwest at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph today, becoming northwest at 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH values 25-50% today, dropping to 15-30% Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Expect dry and much warmer weather. Winds generally northwesterly at 5-10 mph on Thursday and Friday, then becoming southwest to west at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH values 8-15% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.