textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect very warm temperatures to develop over the next several days. Temperatures by early next week may be the highest ever seen in March, prepare for an early look at summer.

DISCUSSION

Tranquil weather conditions are taking place this afternoon across northern Arizona thanks to a stable, high pressure system centered just off the southern California coast. Dry, northerly flow has resulted in light northwest to northeast breezes, 10-15 mph, and clear skies. Current temperatures have already reached 5-10 degrees above average today, however, sufficient cooling at night will still take place, given the time of year and dry conditions.

Besides for a low pressure trough passing by towards the northeast on Saturday increasing west-southwest winds to 20-35 mph, the weather pattern across the Southwest will remain benign, resulting in dry conditions, abnormally warm days, and cool nights. High pressure will likely strengthen and center itself directly over Arizona mid-next week allowing for daytime temperatures to reach 25-30 degrees above average for this time of year, which could be the warmest temperatures ever recorded across the Southwest in March. Imagine...80 degrees in Flagstaff on March 18th! That's what we are forecasting at this time.

AVIATION...Thursday 12/06Z through Friday 13/06Z

VFR conditions with VRB winds 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 13/06Z through Sunday 15/06Z...VFR conditions. Winds W/NW 5-15 kts on Friday, becoming W/SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25- 35 kts on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Dry and warm conditions are expected each day with cool temperatures overnight. Afternoon humidity will remain near 15% with moderate recoveries overnight. Winds will be light, 5 to 15 mph, out of the north on Thursday, followed by west-northwest breezes, 10 to 20 mph, on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Dry and warm conditions are forecast each day through Monday. Minimum humidity remains 10 to 15% each afternoon with poor to moderate recoveries each night. Expect gusty westerly winds, 20 to 30 mph, on Saturday, becoming breezy northwest winds for Sunday and Monday. Daytime temperatures will likely become abnormally warm mid-next week as highs are forecast to reach 25 to 30 degrees above average for this time of year.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.