textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and breezy conditions forecast to continue through the end of the week due to a broad trough across the West Coast. A pattern change will begin over the weekend and into next week with an area of high pressure set to build across the Southwest. Chances for rain/storms may return sometime next week.

DISCUSSION

Dry and breezy conditions will continue to be the main story through the end of the week. These conditions are due to a large area of low pressure across the western CONUS. Pressure gradients have eased up compared to the last several days, so winds are not expected to be as strong as we've seen. However, southwest winds 10-20 mph are forecast, so that mixed with the low relative humidity values, our CWA will remain in near-critical fire weather conditions.

Over the weekend the synoptic pattern will gradually shift as high pressure moves in from the southeast. Initially, the main change we'll notice is lighter southwest winds over the weekend and warmer temperatures. But model guidance does suggest that we could start to see an influx of moisture by next week. A lot will depend on where the area of high pressure ends up settling. Currently, precipitation chances are limited to the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim Monday through Wednesday. Be sure to check back later for updates!

AVIATION...Wednesday 01/12Z through Thursday 02/12Z

Mainly VFR conditions expected. Periods of HZ/FU possible near KFLG, KSEZ, and KGCN from local wildfires. Light and variable winds forecast to continue through 18Z, becoming SW 10-20 kts afterwards. Light winds again after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 02/12Z through Saturday 04/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Periods of HZ/FU possible near KFLG, KSEZ, and KGCN from local wildfires. Look for SW winds 10-20 kts each afternoon becoming light and variable overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday

Dry and breezy conditions expected through the end of the week. Daytime highs will increase each afternoon, but still remain below normal for this time of year. Minimum RH values forecast to be between 5-12% each afternoon, and winds out of the southwest at 10-20 mph.

Friday through Sunday...Expect warm and dry conditions through the weekend. Breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph will stick around for Friday, becoming lighter for Saturday and Sunday. Minimum RH values between 5-15% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.