textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Fair and much warmer weather will continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

A dry and mild air mass is in place across northern Arizona. The dry air is pushing into our region on some breezy north to northeast winds following Wednesday's weak trough passage. Starting tonight, high pressure will build across our region and this will persist through the weekend and well into next week. This will bring much warmer daytime temperatures to our region, reaching 10-15 degrees above normal and likely peaking Saturday through Monday. Typical springtime breezes are expected Friday and Saturday, with gusts 20-25 mph from the west or northwest. Some of the forecast guidance indicates a weak disturbance clipping northeast Arizona later Saturday afternoon and evening. There may be enough mid level moisture for some high-based convection in far northeast Arizona during this time, but it mostly be virga or a sprinkle at best - PoPs are under 10%.

By Tuesday and Wednesday - temperatures will remain well above normal. Much of the guidance shifts the ridge gradually eastward as a weak low approaches from the west, allowing some moisture to be pulled up into our area. While there is still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble data regarding this pattern, there will be a slight chance of high-based showers or thunderstorms. This would mainly affect higher elevation areas, with the primary threats being localized gusty winds and a few lightning strikes. PoP values are still 15% or less at this time.

AVIATION...Friday 08/06Z through Saturday 09/06Z

VFR conditions persist with FEW-SCT mid-level clouds through the period. Expect light and variable winds overnight, with a return of west- northwest winds, 10-20 kts, from 17Z-02Z, weakening thereafter.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 09/06Z through Monday 11/06Z...VFR conditions continue through the weekend with mostly clear skies. Plan on westerly winds, 15-25 kts, on Saturday, followed by light and variable winds, 5-10 kts, on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Turning warmer with dry conditions. Winds west/northwest 10-20 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 8-15%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Continued warm and dry conditions. Slight chance for an isolated high-based shower near the White Mountains each afternoon starting Monday. Winds variable 5-15 mph on Sunday, becoming south/southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.