textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Scattered showers continue through the afternoon in far eastern AZ, with only isolated activity elsewhere. Precipitation chances will diminish through the weekend, with the potential for more unsettled weather next week. Expect chilly morning lows especially Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION...Today

Following the very active day yesterday, a downturn in activity is in store for many. Much of the hi-res guidance indicates potential for more thunderstorms across Navajo and Apache county, however we are yet to see any deep convection as of 1300 MST. The continuous band of light showers and clouds overnight into this morning may be hindering daytime destabilization in this region. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will still be possible towards the late afternoon especially if we see better clearing. Further west, drier air is beginning to move in and storms are expected to stay isolated. There is a slight chance for showers to continue overnight across eastern AZ as another shortwave passes.

Friday through Sunday...A continued downturn in activity is expected. A larger west coast trough is forecast to push inland on Friday-Saturday and introduce much drier air. A few showers and thunderstorms will still be possible across the AZ-NM border on Friday before drier air moves in. By Saturday and Sunday showers will be extremely isolated to nonexistent as PWAT drops to below the 25th percentile. The dry air also means cold morning lows. Many areas across the high country will see temperatures dip into the 30s on Sunday morning, with some locations seeing the first freeze of the year.

Monday and beyond...Another west coast trough looks to approach early next week. Uncertainty starts to increase considerably at this point, but the general consensus among ensemble guidance is for shower chances to increase Monday-Tuesday

AVIATION...Thursday 17/18Z through Friday 18/18Z

Flight conditions will improve through the afternoon after some localized MVFR/IFR early this morning. Brief MVFR conditions associated with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue through the afternoon/early evening, mainly east of a KPAN-K0V7 line, with only a slight chance farther west. Winds S to SW 5-15 kts daytime, light and variable overnight. Gusty and erratic winds in and near thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Friday 18/18Z through Sunday 20/18Z...Mostly VFR conditions. Isolated SHRA/TSRA with localized MVFR conditions, primarily over the eastern third of the state. Winds S to SW 10-20 kts daytime, light and variable overnight. Gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Saturday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into early this evening over the eastern third of the state, with drier conditions elsewhere. Isolated showers and storms will continue Friday and Saturday, mainly over far eastern Arizona. Daytime winds S-SW 10-20 mph, light/variable overnight. Expect gusty and erratic winds in/near storms.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry area wide on Sunday. Chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Monday afternoon through Tuesday as a trough moves through. Temperatures will remain near average. Winds S- SW 5-15 mph during the daytime hours, becoming light and variable overnight.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.