textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, along with warming temperatures are expected through early next week.

DISCUSSION...Today

Limited moisture across much of northern Arizona will keep the threat for storms today fairly low. Much like yesterday, coverage looks to remain fairly isolated, and generally focused over the higher terrain. A weak wave does look to move up the Colorado River Valley today, which may help to promote a little more coverage across western Arizona given the added upward motion. Some brief heavy downpours and Gusty outflow winds will be the main threats from any stronger storm that develops today. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure slowly begins to retrograde and strengthen over the southwest through the coming week. Warming temperatures ensue across northern Arizona as a result, with afternoon highs returning to near-normal to slightly (~5F) above normal.

With monsoonal moisture still in place, precipitation chances look to still continue into the the start of the week. However, as the ridge strengthens, afternoon convection will be suppressed. Therefore, much of the activity looks to remain isolated in nature and mainly over the higher terrain. The best chances each day will mainly be from the eastern Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains.

Wednesday through Saturday...By the later half of the week, the high begins to move into a more favorable position as it wobbles around the southwest. Guidance is still a little shaky on the exact positioning and strength of the high, so some uncertain in exact coverage and locations remains. Nevertheless, coverage does look to tick back upwards by the end of the week.

AVIATION...Sunday 16/12Z through Monday 17/12Z

VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA over the higher terrain 19Z-03Z. Gusty outflow winds and brief periods of MVFR conditions possible in and around TS. Winds VRB 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 17/12Z through Wednesday 19/12Z...VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA over the higher terrain each daily, with the greatest chances mainly INVOF KSOW/KJTC. Gusty outflow winds and brief periods of MVFR conditions possible in and around TS. Winds VRB 5-10 kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday

Gradually turning warmer. Isolated showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly over the higher terrain. Coverage of storms increases over the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim on Monday. Outside of storms, winds are generally light and variable at 10 mph or less.

Tuesday through Thursday...Continued warmer temperatures. Isolated showers in the White Mountains on Tuesday, with coverage increasing and spreading westward on Wednesday and Thursday. Outside of storms, winds are generally southwest through west 5-10 mph each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.