textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild and dry weather will continue through next week. Winds will generally be light through Monday but with locally gusty northeast winds along and southwest of the higher terrain. From Tuesday into Thursday widespread gusty northeast winds are forecast to return with the passing of a weak weather system to our north.

DISCUSSION

High pressure will dominate the weather across Arizona into Friday before a weak closed-low introduces slight chances for showers later on Friday into next weekend.

Through Thursday...Look for generally fair weather with daytime high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average and overnight lows hovering near normal. Winds will generally remain light through Monday but then become gusty from the north to northeast starting Tuesday as a dry shortwave trough brushes the northeast corner of Arizona. Other than that, varying amounts of high level cirrus.

From Friday onward...In a repeating pattern this year, a closed- low will develop off the California coast. The primary impacts (if you can even call it that) will be a bit cooler daytime temperatures and winds shifting to a more southerly direction. More uncertain is any chance for precipitation. Some model solutions dive the closed-low southward along the Baja California coast. Other solutions bring the center of the weak low across southern Arizona. The first scenario would be a continuation of dry weather. The second scenario would bring at least slight chances for showers heading into next weekend. Nothing significant appearing on the horizon, we'll need a pattern change for that.

AVIATION...Sunday 01/00Z through Monday 02/00Z

VFR conditions and mostly light and variable winds forecast through the period. Localized NE gusts near KSEZ possible overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 02/00Z through Wednesday 04/00Z...VFR conditions forecast through the period. Light and variable winds expected through 20Z Monday, before west through north winds return 5-10 kts begin. Look for light and variable winds Monday night minus areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim where NE gusts 10-20 kts will be possible. N-NE winds 5-15 kts look to start Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Expect dry conditions with little change in high/low temperatures. Winds generally light and variable at 5-15 mph. Afternoon minimum RH between 15-25% on Sunday increase to 20-30% on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry with little change in temperatures. North to northeast winds at 10-20 mph on Tuesday will increase to 15- 25 mph on Wednesday, then gradually diminish on Thursday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% for Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing to 15-25% on Thursday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.