textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Drier and warmer conditions will move in through the end of the week and weekend as high pressure looks to dominate the region through the next week.

DISCUSSION

The monsoon is over and a ridge of high pressure has built into the region. This will bring dry conditions with temperatures at or slightly above average during the day and seasonably cool at night through the weekend.

Models suggest the possibility of the ridge being briefly suppressed by a shortwave moving through the area. This could bring a few showers to the higher elevations Monday and Tuesday afternoon but each run has been showing the chances of this occurring trending downward so confidence is low on this scenario.

By the middle to the end of next week high pressure rebounds into an even stronger ridge with heights of 588-591dm in the center. This will lead to continued dry conditions with temperatures warming further, up to 5-10 degrees above average.

AVIATION...Thursday 01/18Z through Friday 02/18Z

VFR conditions with N/NE winds 5-15 kts through 03Z. Locally breezy winds NE winds remain downwind of the terrain 03Z-15Z, otherwise becoming light.

OUTLOOK...Friday 02/18Z through Sunday 04/18Z...VFR conditions. Daytime winds NE-SE 5-15 kts, remaining locally breezy downwind of the terrain overnight, otherwise light.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures. Winds northeast through southeast 5-15 mph each afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly dry conditions and continued near normal temperatures. Slight chance for isolated showers Monday and Tuesday across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Winds east/southeast 5-10 mph on Sunday and Monday, becoming light and variable on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.