textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will influence our weather through the weekend and into next week. Increasing moisture over the weekend will bring isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms, becoming more focused over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains through the week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure sets up to the southeast this weekend and will strengthen as the week progresses. A little bit of mid level moisture is being brought into the area from a decaying tropical system over the Pacific. Precipitable water values approach low grade monsoon values, but things remain relatively dry in the low levels of the atmosphere. Current CAMs show a few afternoon high based showers/storms developing over the Rim this afternoon (10-20% chance). Rainfall will be light but these storms could produce gusty and erratic downburst winds as well as dry lightning, definitely a concern for the fire partners. For the outdoor enthusiasts the storms won't likely be widespread but keep aware of your surroundings just in case. A similar scenario sets up for Sunday, a 10-20% chance of afternoon high based showers/storms over the higher terrain, dry elsewhere with temperatures near early July averages.

High pressure continues to intensify as the week progresses. Temperatures will warm up to 5-10 degrees above average by mid week and remain there through next weekend. As far as moisture advection goes, the location of the high is favorable to bring moisture into New Mexico but with the exception of far eastern Arizona, most of the state stays dry for most of the week. Towards the weekend there's indications that the moisture flow will shift further west and begin to impact the state a little more, but right now still looks like low grade monsoon conditions at best.

AVIATION...Saturday 04/18Z through Sunday 05/18Z

VFR conditions, with occasional MVFR CIGS/VIS in HZ/FU near KFLG/KSEZ. FU will impact KFLG all day, with impacts to KSEZ mostly during the overnight and early morning hours. SW-W winds 10-20 kts, becoming light and variable after 02Z. Gusty outflow winds possible near ISO -SHRA/-TSRA, mainly over the higher terrain through 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/18Z through Tuesday 07/18Z...VFR conditions, with occasional MVFR CIGS/VIS in HZ/FU near KFLG/KSEZ. S-W winds 5-15 kts each day, becoming light and variable overnight. Gusty outflow winds possible near ISO -SHRA/-TSRA, mainly over the higher terrain each afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday

Mainly dry and breezy conditions this weekend, but an increase in mid-level moisture brings a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain each afternoon. Wetting rains are not expected and gusty erratic winds and dry lightning are possible with these high based storms. Winds SW 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph each day. Minimum RH values 5- 15% Saturday, 10-20% Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Warming temperatures to above normal by midweek. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain in eastern Arizona each afternoon. Winds SW 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph and minimum RH values between 15-25% each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.