textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected today, outside of a slight chance for showers in the White Mountains. Showers and breezier conditions return on Sunday, especially north of the Mogollon Rim. Cooler, more unsettled conditions look to continue through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION...Today

Mainly dry and warmer conditions are expected today as high pressure briefly builds over Arizona. A slight chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms remains over the White Mountains this afternoon, but that should be the extent of it.

Sunday and Monday...Winder conditions set in on Sunday as a closed- low off the California coast begins to approach Arizona. Gusts in the afternoon upwards of 30 mph look probable on Sunday, and likely continuing into the overnight in areas unlikely to decouple downwind of the terrain. As the low ejects off the Pacific early next week, wind look to increase further. Winds are expected to peak on Monday, as the upper-level jet peaks in intensity. The depth of the boundary layer may limit the overall gust potential, but peak gusts up to 40 mph are not out of the question. RH values do look to fall a bit on Monday, potentially leading to some localized areas of critical fire weather conditions (especially in the Little Colorado River Valley), but widespread critical fire weather conditions do not appear likely at this time.

Increased southerly flow should aid in moisture advection into Arizona, at least at the mid-levels. However, any activity that does develop looks to be light and mainly isolated in nature given the lack of deeper moisture. The best chances for precipitation on Sunday look to be mainly over the higher terrain from the Mogollon Rim and northward. Precipitation chances then return again on Tuesday as the core of the low moves over Arizona, providing added lift for precipitation development. The best chance for more area-wide precipitation looks to be during this timeframe, however overall QPF amounts are still on the lighter side.

Outside of the precipitation chances, a brief period of cooler than normal temperatures are expected for the first-half of the week. Behind the low, heights rise once again as high pressure builds back into Arizona. Drier and warmer conditions are expected as a result to close out the week.

AVIATION...Saturday 02/12Z through Sunday 03/12Z

VFR conditions. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA INVOF KJTC 19Z-02Z. Winds E/SE 5-10 kts through 02Z, then becoming VRB.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 03/12Z through Tuesday 05/12Z...VFR conditions. ISO- SCT SHRA/TSRA 20Z Sunday to 06Z Monday, mainly north of a KIGM-KSEZ- KJTC line. Winds S/SW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Sunday, increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday

Chance for showers and sprinkles over the White Mountains today, then slight chance from the Mogollon Rim northward on Sunday. Winds south/southeast 5-15 mph on Saturday, becoming south/southwest 10-20 mph on Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% today, rising to 15-30% on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry conditions on Monday, with chances for scattered showers across much of northern Arizona on Tuesday with lingering activity into Wednesday. Winds south/southwest 15-25 mph on Monday, then subsiding to 10-20 mph on Tuesday, becoming west/northwest 5-15 mph on Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-25% on Monday, rising to 20-40% on Tuesday before falling back to 15-30% on Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.