textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for today and tonight. Expect typical southwest breezes each afternoon, with increasing winds and cooler temperatures arriving for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

A trough starts to push through our area today, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the day. As the trough moves across the area, it starts to become more of a weak low. With surface heating through the day, we should start to see the activity increase across northern and central Arizona. QPF amounts will range from a trace to around 0.30" with most areas seeing around 0.10" or less. Dry lightning and gusty outflow winds are expected, especially in areas where conditions remain drier through the day.

The low lifts to the north tonight taking the bulk of the showers and storms with it. Some lingering showers will continue across northern Arizona into Tuesday, shifting towards the Four Corners by Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the dry air starts to filter back into the region on Tuesday so expect a mostly dry day across the forecast area. The gradient tightens up as the low moves out and the next low starts to push towards the region. Expect gusty southwest winds around 10-20 mph gusting to 20-30 mph through the afternoon on Tuesday.

A deep closed low pushes down into the Great Basin around midweek. The pressure gradient will tighten further resulting in strong southwest winds with gusts to 30-35 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. The location and track of this closed low continue to vary between models and from run to run. Most models take the slow moving low and keep it centered off to our northwest and then lift the low to our north as we head into the end of the week. With this low nearby, we can not only expect the stronger winds to continue but we will keep cooler temperatures across the region. Unfortunately, the position of the low doesn't really draw in much moisture to eh region, though we should see some clouds develop each day, just not expecting any shower activity at this time. As the low lifts off to the north, we should start to see temperatures gradually warm as we head into the weekend.

AVIATION...Monday 25/12Z through Tuesday 26/12Z

Mainly VFR conditions. Expect ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA with brief periods of MVFR or lower. Gusty/erratic winds INVOF showers/storms. Outside of storms, SE-SW winds 5-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 26/12Z through Thursday 28/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA through 00Z/Wed over NE Arizona. SW winds 10-20 kts on Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 kts gusting to 30-35 kts on Wednesday. Winds will remain elevated Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with areas of wetting rain possible along with cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty/erratic winds through tonight. Drier air moves in on Tuesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms lingering toward the Four Corners and along the Arizona/New Mexico border. Expect southeast to southwest winds 5-15 mph gusting to 20 mph today, shifting to south to southwest 10-20 mph gusting to 25 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH decreases to 10-20% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday....Dry with below average temperatures. Expect south to southwest winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph on Wednesday and Thursday, diminishing to 5-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph on Friday. Afternoon minimum RH between 10-20% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.