textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and breezy weather will continue today. Over the weekend, a weak weather disturbance will deliver cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions along with a chance of showers late Saturday into Sunday. Breezy and unsettled weather is expected to continue well into next week.

DISCUSSION

A shortwave trough from over the Pacific will approach Arizona during the day Saturday then move across the area Saturday night and Sunday. In response to the trough, look for daytime high temperatures around 5 degrees cooler on Saturday and an additional 5-10 degrees cooler on Sunday. The approaching trough will strengthen pressure gradients with southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph on Saturday. As the trough axis crosses Arizona on Sunday pressure gradients will strengthen further. Consequently, from the Mogollon Rim and White mountains northward, southwest at 20-30 mph gusting to 40-50 mph are forecast. Elsewhere, winds will fall more in the range of southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph. Along with the trough will come increasing moisture and dynamics for upward lift for a decent chance of showers. The best chances will be Saturday night into Sunday when liquid equivalent precipitation amounts ranging from 0.05-0.25 inches are forecast. There will be enough instability with the passing system for isolated thunderstorms. by early Sunday colder air aloft will make its way into Arizona with snow levels dipping to elevations as low as 6,500-7,000 feet Sunday morning. Any accumulation of snow is expected to be minor and confined to the western Mogollon Rim and Kaibab Plateau, generally 1.0 inch or less (except for the very highest mountain elevations). Snow levels then rapidly rise starting late Sunday morning with daytime heating.

For Monday through Wednesday...Expect dry weather and a bit warmer temperatures as a dry shortwave trough on Monday, then a shortwave ridge on Tuesday/Wednesday usher in a milder air mass. Winds will turn lighter than on Sunday, west to southwest at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph each day. Skies will remain mostly clear to partly cloudy for nice weather.

From Thursday onward...Yet another weak weather disturbance will move across Arizona ushering in cooler temperatures and a chance of showers. Isolated thunderstorms are also anticipated. Breezy conditions will continue.

AVIATION...Saturday 25/00Z through Sunday 26/00Z

VFR conditions, mainly dry with increasing clouds after 18Z Saturday. Winds decreasing to light and variable overnight. Increasing to S-SW 15-25kts, gusts 30-45kts after 15-18Z Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 26/00Z through Tuesday 28/00Z...Scattered rain showers with snow showers possible between 09Z-15Z Sun at KFLG and KGCN. Showers should exit the area after 00Z Monday with dry conditions rest of the outlook period. Mainly VFR conditions but MVFR and IFR is possible with heavier showers. Winds SW 15-25kts, gusts 30-45kts Sunday, SW 10-20kts Sunday night, SW 10-20kts, gusts to 30kts Monday.

FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday

Expect windy and cooler conditions this weekend, with the highest wind speeds and coldest temperatures on Sunday. An approaching cold front will spread rain and high elevations snow showers across the area during Saturday night, along with isolated thunderstorms. Wetting rains will be tough to come by, the best chance being over the western Mogollon Rim and the Kaibab Plateau. Expect southwest wind speeds from 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to near 40 mph, on Saturday. A bit higher for Sunday, especially to the east.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and warmer. Daily southwest winds 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph over higher terrain.Southwest winds generally 10-20 mph are expected Monday and Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.