textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Temperatures cool slightly over the weekend and into early next week to near seasonal averages, however things remain very dry with increasing southwest winds and elevated fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

Northern Arizona will be at the base end of a trough starting today and lasting through a good portion of the week. The low pressure systems associated with this trough remain well to our north as does their moisture. What we will get is a cooling trend toward average early June temperatures, but the southwesterly flow aloft will keep the airmass dry and with a tightening pressure gradient, strong southwesterly winds 15-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph. Needless to say this is bad news for fire weather and a Red Flag Warning issued for today has been expanded from our northwest zones to include the western Mogollon Rim. Sunday's Red Flag Warning will be even more widespread with a good chunk of northern Arizona falling under it. This looks to continue into Monday and Tuesday as well and a Fire Weather Watch for most of northern Arizona has been issued.

By the middle to the end of the week the long wave troughing begins to move east and it looks like the area gets under a more zonal flow aloft. This will hopefully bring the winds down and get us away from the critical fire weather conditions that occupy the first half of the week.

AVIATION...Saturday 06/18Z through Sunday 07/18Z

VFR conditions expected. Winds are SW-W 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts. Overnight winds are S-SW 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 07/18Z through Tuesday 09/18Z...VFR conditions expected. Winds are SW 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts on Sunday then 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts on Monday. Winds are generally S-SW 5-15 kts during the overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday

Warm and dry conditions persist with increasing winds. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph Saturday, with gusts increasing to 35-45 mph on Sunday. Minimum RH 5-15%. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions today with a Red Flag Warning issued for the northwest zones and western Mogollon Rim. The Red Flag Warning expands to include most of northern and central Arizona on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm, dry, and windy conditions persist. Critical to near critical fire weather conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most of northern Arizona for those time periods. Winds southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 35-40 mph Monday and Tuesday, with gusts decreasing to 30-35 mph Wednesday. Minimum RH values 5-15%.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104-106-107-115.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ104>116-139-140.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening for AZZ104>117-138>140.