textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening and will redevelop Monday, although activity will shift southward. Warmer weather returns for much of next week, with most activity decreasing or ending after Monday. Slight chances do remain over higher terrain southeast of Flagstaff.

DISCUSSION

Moisture and a favorable instability/temperature profile continues to generate showers and thunderstorms today. The sunny start to the morning allowed for rapid and strong convective development earlier and a few storms became near-severe. There have been some hydrological issues as cells back-build into the untapped southwest flow. Flooding has been reported around Dewey and a Flash Flood at Supai.

We expect things to diminish quickly again this evening, with a quiet night after sunset for most places.

Drier air aloft starts working in from the west and northwest as early as Monday, but this moisture pool and instability will still linger. Streamlines and drying aloft indicate that most activity Monday will be south of I-40. The Prescott-Payson corridor could still be fairly active.

The remainder of the week features high pressure, warming temperatures and a drying trend. However, this early Monsoon moisture pool will not completely fade away. This means that at least isolated activity will remain possible over far southeastern portions of our CWA, but most areas will be dry.

Moisture may return as southerly flow develops next weekend, but too early to tell.

AVIATION...Monday 15/00Z through Tuesday 16/00Z

SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA through 02Z-04Z, then clearing and becoming VFR from SW to NE. Stronger storms will produce gusty winds to 40kts and MVFR. Daytime sfc winds away from storms W-SW10-20kts. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA again AFT 18Z-19Z Monday, but mainly along or south of a KPRC-KPAN-KSJN line.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/00Z through Thursday 18/00Z...Expect Mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible each afternoon, mainly south of a KPAN-KSJN line. Daytime sfc winds SW-W10-20g25kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Expect isolated showers and storms on Monday along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, with isolated showers and storms being confined to the White Mountains on Tuesday. Any storms that develop are capable of producing wetting rains and gusty, erratic winds that may reach 30 to 40 mph. Winds SW-W at 10-15 mph Monday, W-NW 10-20 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim region each afternoon. Otherwise, expect warmer and mostly dry conditions to return. Winds SW-W 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.