textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions return for much of this week, with isolated chances for showers across the higher terrain each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Moisture continues to be scoured out of the region as dry air filters in on the west to northwest flow. However, it will not fully erode and daily chances for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least Thursday. Hi-res guidance continues to show storms developing by early afternoon along and south of the Mogollon Rim today, shifting more towards the eastern Rim and White Mountains on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, the moisture will have shifted to the south and east and there will only be an offside chance that a shower may reach into our far eastern areas. Storm activity will diminish each evening, as storms will mainly be diurnally driven.

With the drier conditions and warming temperatures, we will again see the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon reach between 105-110 degrees each afternoon. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for these areas through Wednesday for areas below 4000 feet. If you have plans to be in the canyon, make sure you are prepared for hot conditions.

Interaction between the long wave trough across much of the United States and the ridging that is building across the Desert Southwest will result in increasing winds across our area. These winds will gradually strengthen today into Wednesday, with elevated winds expected to continue through the overnight areas downwind/east of the higher terrain.

Drier conditions along with the expected stronger winds across the region, will bring enhanced fire weather conditions to portions of the region through the end of the week and into the coming weekend.

By the weekend, a couple of shortwaves approach the area, which should help to cool temperatures slightly, erode any lingering moisture, and bring breezy conditions.

AVIATION...Tuesday 16/18Z through Wednesday 17/18Z

Mainly VFR conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSJN line including around KPRC. Brief MVFR conditions and erratic gusts 30-40 kts in and near storms. Outside of storms, W to NW winds 10-20 kts, becoming generally light after 03Z. The exception, winds will remain elevated just east of terrain features overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 17/18Z through Friday 19/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon south of a KFLG- KSJN line. Winds SW to W 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts each day. Overnight winds generally light. The exception, winds will remain elevated just east of terrain features overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday

Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Localized downpours and wind gusts to 40 mph possible with any thunderstorms. Outside of storms, expect west to northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts 20-25 mph today, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph on Wednesday. Winds remain elevated each night downwind of terrain features. Minimum RH around 10-20% each day. Near-critical fire weather conditions possible across far northern and eastern Arizona each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly dry, breezy, and slightly cooler weather expected. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains each day. Expect southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph each day. Minimum RH drops to 5-15% each afternoon. Enhanced fire weather conditions possible across northeast Arizona each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006.