textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warm temperatures and mostly dry weather are expected for today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms arriving for Memorial Day. Expect typical southwest breezes each afternoon, with increasing winds and cooler temperatures arriving for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

A ridge will remain centered over New Mexico today as a trough starts to push in from the west. Expect today to be largely dry and warm with some afternoon southerly breezes. As the trough starts to push towards our area, we will see increasing moisture, mostly resulting in clouds and virga showers for today. A few isolated showers may reach the ground across the White Mountains but most areas won't see anything reach the ground. Models have sped things up just a smidge from previous runs, with some showers/storms moving into the area late tonight into Monday morning. As the trough moves over the area on Monday it becomes more of a weak closed low. We will see additional showers/storms develop as the moisture continues to advect into the region and surface heating takes place. Best chances continue to remain along and north of the Mogollon Rim. QPF amounts aren't stellar but will range from a trace to around 0.30" with most areas seeing around 0.10" or less. Dry lightning and gusty outflow winds look to be the main hazards with any storms that develop.

The low lifts to the north and the showers/storms go with it. Some lingering showers will continue across northern Arizona late Monday into early Tuesday, shifting towards the Four Corners by Tuesday morning. Otherwise, expect Tuesday to be a mostly dry day across the forecast area. Gusty southwest winds will continue with winds around 10-20 mph gusting to 20-30 mph through the afternoon on Tuesday.

A deep closed low is progged to track through the Great Basin around midweek. The tightening pressure gradient will result in strong southwest winds so expect 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. The location and track of this closed low vary between models and from run to run. However, most models take the slow moving low and keep it off to our northwest and then lift it to our north towards the end of the week. With this low nearby, we can not only expect the stronger winds but also the cooler temperatures to continue. As the low lifts off to the north, we should start to see temperatures gradually warm as we head into next weekend. Unfortunately, the current track of the low doesn't lend any confidence to having more showers across the region. Something to watch as we head towards the second half of the week.

AVIATION...Sunday 24/06Z through Monday 25/06Z

VFR conditions forecast through the period. Light and variable winds expected overnight. After 18Z, south through west winds 5-15 kts return.

OUTLOOK...Monday 25/06Z through Wednesday 27/06Z...VFR conditions forecast outside of brief MVFR conditions possible between 06Z Monday - 06Z Tuesday due to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA. Gusty/erratic winds will be possible near showers/storms. Otherwise, look for S-SW winds 5-15 kts gusting near 20-25 tks during the afternoon periods, and light and variable winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday

Warm and dry weather expected today with increasing moisture and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Dry lightning and erratic outflow gusts will be possible. Expect west to southwest winds 10-20 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH between 10-20% today, increasing to 20-40% on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday....Mainly dry with cooler temperatures through the end of the week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms lingering into Tuesday toward the Four Corners and along the Arizona/New Mexico border. Expect southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon minimum RH between 10-20% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.