textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions today. A weak storm system then passes to the south, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and some cloud cover with a few isolated showers over the eastern mountains. High pressure builds into Arizona over the weekend, ushering in a return of warmer temperatures and dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

A ridge just off the West Coast will begin pushing eastward over the next couple days. Underneath the ridge a weak upper level low will move towards southern Arizona, opening up into a wave and eventually being absorbed into a shortwave riding down the eastern side of the ridge by Friday. Unfortunately for us most of the moisture associated with this dying low will be confined the south of us, although the White Mountains could see an isolated shower Thursday afternoon, and maybe an isolated shower or thunderstorm Friday along the Arizona/New Mexico border region.

As the ridge moves across the area this weekend, expect dry sunny weather with temperatures rising to about 5 degrees above average and your typical springtime afternoon breezes.

By early next week another upper level low approaching from the West Coast will move across the area. This will cool our temperatures back to around average and maybe another shot at some isolated showers or thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor and see what the next few model runs come up with.

AVIATION...Thursday 30/00Z through Friday 01/00Z

VFR conditions are expected under variable mid to high-level clouds. Winds W to SW at 10-20 kts until 02Z, then light and variable through 16Z. After 16Z, winds becoming W to NW at 10-20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 01/00Z through Sunday 03/00Z...VFR conditions will persist under variable cloud cover. Winds W to NW at 10-20 kts on Thursday followed by northwest winds on Friday. Variable winds are expected on Saturday. A stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm will be possible Friday and Saturday toward the Arizona/New Mexico border.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Mild and mostly dry conditions persist across northern Arizona each day. Slight chances for showers are forecast in the White Mountains on Thursday and then along the AZ/NM border on Friday. Afternoon humidity will remain low, 10 to 20%. Winds, west-northwest 10 to 20 mph, on Thursday becoming more northwest on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Temperatures warm over the weekend with dry conditions remaining. Moisture slightly increases for Sunday and Monday, with afternoon humidity in the 15 to 25% range. Plan on a return of south to southwest winds on Saturday, 10 to 20 mph, followed by stronger southwest winds on Sunday, 15 to 25 mph, and Monday, 20 to 35 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.