textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warm temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and mainly light southwesterly winds are expected this week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase by the middle of the week over southern Navajo and Apache counties.

DISCUSSION

A building ridge will nudge itself into our area from as it remains centered over the southern Plains through much of this week. This will bring us warming temperatures and southwesterly breezes, with the heat likely peaking over the region Wednesday through Friday.

Meanwhile, a weak upper low develops off of the California coast, dropping southward into Baja California over the next day or two. As the low pushes south, this will result in moisture being advected into the region, mainly across the White Mountains and nearby areas. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly Wednesday and Thursday, across southern Apache and Navajo counties.

By Friday, the low to our south pushes eastward, before moving into New Mexico/Texas. Weak ridging will arrive for Saturday with dry conditions returning.

Beyond Saturday...the models have started to diverge from one another. There is the potential for another trough to push deep into southern California by early next week (keeps us dry and windy and slightly cooler) or we could end up under a strengthening ridge (keeps us warm with southwesterly breezes - also dry). With such a wide range, our confidence is low any particular solution at this time and what impacts that may bring for us in the high country.

AVIATION...Monday 01/18Z through Tuesday 02/18Z

VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds S-SW 10-20kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 02/18Z through Thursday 04/18Z...VFR conditions, a few isolated thunderstorms possible over the White Mountains during the afternoon hours. Daytime winds S-SW 10-20kts, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Primarily dry, but some showers or thunderstorms are possible over the White Mountains each afternoon. Wetting rains are not expected. Winds are SW-W 10-20 mph each day. Minimum RH 7-15% each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Primarily dry but a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms are possible over the White Mountains Thursday afternoon. Winds SW-W 10-20 mph Thursday and Friday but pick up on Saturday at SW-W 15-30 mph. Minimum RH values 7-15% each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.