textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue over the weekend and much of next week. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms develops for Wednesday, mainly over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Expect easterly winds to continue, especially on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

A ridge centered over the Four Corners will keep dry and seasonably warm weather in place through at least early next week. Surface high pressure over the central plains will maintain our locally gusty easterly winds, especially today. Wind gusts could reach 30 mph at times over higher terrain.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, the ridge begins to break down as a weak trough attempts to form over western Arizona. This will allow the atmosphere to destabilize just enough to introduce a high-based convective threat for Wednesday.

The ridge then briefly rebuilds later next week, before possibly breaking down again next weekend. It is next weekend or early the following week that may bring more significant weather to our area. This pattern bears watching, but it is just outside the forecast period for now.

AVIATION...Sunday 04/12Z through Monday 05/12Z

Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds E10-20g25kts from 17Z-02Z, otherwise light.

OUTLOOK...Monday 05/12Z through Wednesday 07/12Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds generally light and trending easterly in the daytime hours.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

Expect dry conditions with seasonably warm temperatures. Daytime winds east through northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Sunday, then turning lighter on Monday at 5 to 15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly dry conditions with continued seasonable temperatures. A slight chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms develops by Wednesday, especially over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Daytime winds generally northeast through southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.