textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Breezy and cool weather continues today. After a warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday, rain shower chances return late Thursday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

The trough that brought windy and cool weather to our region on Sunday is moving off into the Plains states this morning. Another shortwave will approach the state from the northwest this afternoon, leading to another cool and breezy day (though not as cool as Sunday). Expect southwest winds 15-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph this afternoon, strongest along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Tuesday and Wednesday - our region will be between systems, with temperatures warming back up near normal and less wind.

Thursday through Friday - the track and timing of the next low moving in from the Pacific remains uncertain as there is still plenty of spread in the ensemble data. The trend over the last 24 hours is for a track farther south (far southern AZ or northern Mexico) which would limit rain chances north of I-40. Our forecast PoPs haven't changed much, still in the 30-60% range, highest south of I-40 and east of I-17. In any case, the system isn't very cold and precipitation would be in the form of rain below about 9000 feet elevation. The majority of forecast guidance moves the system out of Arizona by the weekend with warmer and drier weather in the forecast.

AVIATION...Monday 27/18Z through Tuesday 28/18Z

VFR conditions. Winds increasing to SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts, and then gradually becoming light and variable after 03-06Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 28/18Z through Thursday 30/18Z...VFR conditions are largely expected to continue. A low (20%) chance of showers returns after 00Z Thursday, increasing to 20-50% after 12Z Thursday. Daytime winds SW-W 5-15 kts Tuesday and Wednesday, light and variable or terrain driven winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday

Warmer and drier weather arrives today, with southwest winds 15-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph during the afternoon. Much lower humidity combined with gusty winds will lead to a small area of near-critical fire weather this afternoon on the north side of the White Mountains into the Little Colorado River Valley. On Tuesday, dry weather continues with minimum humidity at or below 15% and west to southwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts of 20- 25 mph.

Wednesday through Friday...On Wednesday, expect dry weather and near normal daytime temperatures. Southwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday, a 30-60% chance of showers is forecast due to the passage of another low pressure system, with chances for showers continuing on Friday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.