textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild temperatures, mainly dry conditions and occasional breezes are expected through the weekend. Despite the dry forecast, a few instances of flooding continue. Stay away from waterways and if you come to a flooded road, turn around, don't drown.

DISCUSSION

Look for a mainly dry weather pattern well into next week.

The rest of this afternoon and overnight...A weak and fast moving shortwave trough will brush the Four Corners area. With the passage of this trough look for a few clouds from the Mogollon Rim northward. A stray light shower or two will be possible across the area from Black Mesa to the Chuska Mountains through early this evening. In addition, look for gusty southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 25-35 mph along and south of a Flagstaff-Window Rock line, diminishing rapidly after sunset.

On Thursday...A weak and dry flow develops aloft leading to light and variable surface winds at 5-10 mph under mainly clear skies. Little change in high/low temperatures.

From Friday into Sunday...An additional weak trough drops southward across Arizona on Friday before heading further south on Saturday and Sunday. As the trough passes through on Friday, there will be just enough lingering moisture and cool air aloft for the development of instability showers over a few higher terrain areas with daytime heating. Consequently, a slight chance of showers is expected over the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains and Chuska Mountains Friday afternoon into the early evening. Precipitation amounts, if any, will be minimal. Behind the trough on Saturday and Sunday high pressure will build over the Great Basin. Pressure gradients for north to northeast flow will then develop with locally gusty winds developing. Most areas will see north to northeast winds at 5-15 mph but for locations where northeast winds get funneled along and south to the Mogollon Rim, local gusts of 20-30 mph will be possible.

From Monday onward...It now looks like fair and mainly dry weather will hold through at least next Wednesday or possibly even longer.

AVIATION...Wednesday 04/18Z through Thursday 05/18Z

VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds SW-W 10-15kts, gusts 20-25kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 05/18Z through Saturday 07/18Z...VFR conditions, mainly dry with the exception of a few isolated rain and high elevation snow showers over the White Mountains on Friday evening. Daytime winds VRB 5-15kts Thursday, N-NE 10-15kts Friday and Friday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Thursday and Friday..Mainly dry conditions with seasonably cool temperatures. The only exception is we could see a few isolated rain or high elevation snow showers over the White Mountain region Friday evening. Winds Thursday will be light and variable winds at 5-10 mph, N-NE 10-20 mph Friday. Minimum RH around 35%-55% each day.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Winds becoming N-NE at 10-20 mph on Saturday, NE-E 10- 20 mph Sunday, light and variable Monday. Minimum RH's 30-50% Saturday and Sunday, 25-40% Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.