textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Warming temperatures and mainly light southwesterly winds expected this week. Most areas will remain dry, but chances for showers and thunderstorms increase by the middle of the week over southern Navajo and Apache counties.
DISCUSSION
Dry and relatively stable southwesterly flow aloft continues for much of this forecast period. Hghts tick just a bit above normal for the work week, with temperatures warming to above normal readings, likely peaking on Wednesday.
One thing to keep an eye on, a weak upper low will induce some southeasterly flow in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. This may import higher PW vales to eastern sections of the CWA, along with some higher dew points as convection over New Mexico pushes outflow boundaries into Arizona. This may be enough for some thunderstorm activity over our far eastern zones in the same time frame, but especially for Wednesday and Thursday. Probabilities have been decreasing for this event, but still enough to mention.
Any moisture intrusion will be short-lieved as another trough forms for next weekend and into early next week. This will prolong the dry air over our region, with a potential for some minor cooling and increased southwesterly winds out around days 6-8.
Overall, not much going on, low impact weather for most of us. But, a few storms to watch over southern Apache County and perhaps southern Navajo County by mid-week.
AVIATION...Monday 01/12Z through Tuesday 02/12Z
Expect VFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20kts.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 02/12Z through Thursday 04/12Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA over southern Navajo and Apache counties each afternoon. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20kts.
FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday
Primarily dry, but a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southern Apache county by Tuesday afternoon. Daytime winds southwest 10 to 20 mph each day.
Wednesday through Friday...A chance of afternoon showers and perhaps thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, mainly for southern Navajo and Apache counties. Dry and warm elsewhere. Daytime winds southwest through west 10 to 20 mph each day.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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