textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Colder temperatures and brisk northeast winds will continue through today. Temperatures warm through mid-week with chances for showers returning for the start of the New Year.

DISCUSSION

Dry conditions and colder temperatures continue today with gusty northeast winds hanging around through this evening. Expect temperatures to warm each day through Wednesday as a ridge starts to build into the region, especially for areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Areas to the north of the Rim will likely remain cooler due to a persistent northeasterly flow aloft, but by Wednesday, a more southerly flow will win out and allow for better warming to occur.

The ridge on Wednesday starts to amplify as it shifts to the east and a trough/low develops over the eastern Pacific. Models have come into better agreement on the placement of the low but still differ on how it evolves through the end of the week. The struggle with timing and strength is real and make it difficult to have confidence in how it may impact Arizona. One thing that seems to be consistent is that it will be quite warm across the region so any precipitation will likely be rain with snow largely confined to areas above 8000- 9000 feet with any accumulations above 9000-10000 feet. With the potential for some showers to be around Wednesday night, you might want to plan accordingly if you have any New Years Eve plans.

AVIATION...Monday 29/12Z through Tuesday 30/12Z

NE/E winds 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts along and downwind of high terrain features, including KGCN, KFLG, and KSEZ. Wind speeds decrease after 00Z, but gusts to 20 kts will persist immediately downwind of high terrain. VFR conditions will continue.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 30/12Z through Thursday 01/12Z...Lighter winds of 5-15 kts are expected, from the NE/E on Tuesday, turning more variable on Wednesday. Chances for showers and MVFR conditions return late Wednesday afternoon and increase especially after 00-06Z Thurs.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Dry weather will continue through early this week. Breezy northeast/east winds at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph on Monday will decrease to about 5-15 mph on Tuesday. Daytime humidity will drop to between 15-35% each afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Moisture will increase on Wednesday with another round of rainfall expected from late Wednesday night into Friday. Mostly rain is expected with high snow levels around 8,000 to 9,000 feet. Expect above normal temperatures and light winds around 5-15 mph each day.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.