textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A very weak short-wave will slide across northeastern Arizona today, bringing slight chances for showers. Afterwards, dry/warm conditions are forecast to return through New Years Eve, when another shortwave looks to cool temperatures by a few degrees. Then, a strong area of high pressure builds up across the West Coast to kick off the New Year!

DISCUSSION

After an unimpressive first round of showers on Christmas morning, another weak shortwave looks to bring minimal chances for rain/high elevation snow flurries this afternoon. Greatest chances will be across Navajo Nation, but a few stray showers could reach as far south as the Mogollon Rim. Even so, accumulation amounts all look to be trending below 0.05 inches. Much of our CWA will see more in the way of low clouds vs. precipitation in terms of the lingering moisture in the area.

The lack of exciting weather should continue for the foreseeable future! Expect high temperatures to climb close to 13-20 degrees above normal by the weekend, with a brief cooling trend towards the New Year's Eve Holiday. The anticipated slight dip in temperatures will be from a weak short-wave sliding through northern Arizona. At this time, no moisture looks to wiggle into our CWA from this quick disturbance.

As we move into 2025...a strong area of high pressure is projected to build across the West Coast. This will once again bring warm temperatures, light winds, and mostly dry conditions to central/northern Arizona. At this time there are no indications of a pattern change on the horizon.

AVIATION...Thursday 26/12Z through Friday 27/12Z

VFR conditions persist with BKN/OVC mid to high-level clouds, at or above 10,000 feet AGL. Isolated -SHRA/-SHSN are possible with the greatest chances (15-25%) along and east of a KPGA-T03-KRQE line from 18Z-00Z. Light westerly winds, 5-15 kts, can be expected during the day.

OUTLOOK...Friday 27/12Z through Sunday 29/12Z...VFR conditions continue with FEW/SCT mid-level cloud cover through the period. Breezier southwest winds, 10-20 kts, are likely on Friday, becoming light and variable for Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday

Isolated showers are possible across northeast Arizona today, however much of the region will remain dry through Friday. Near average temperatures are expected for this afternoon, followed by a warming trend beginning on Friday. Light west winds, 5 to 15 mph, are anticipated today, becoming southwest, 10 to 20 mph, on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...A warming and drying trend persists through the weekend with afternoon temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average expected. Temperatures decrease some on Monday, however remain well above average for this time of year. Light, terrain driven winds are forecast on Saturday, followed by westerly winds, 10 to 20 mph, for Sunday and Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.