textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry and a bit warmer weather for Thursday. Colder temperatures and better chances for rain and snow showers arrive on Friday. After a dry and warmer weekend, keep an eye on next week, as an extended period of winter weather may develop as early as Monday.

DISCUSSION

A relatively stationary upper level Low near the San Francisco Bay area is pulling some moisture over our region right now that's generating a few light showers, however a ridge over Texas has enough influence to keep most of the moisture out west in California. Little if any QPF is coming from these showers and they will move out of here later tonight.

For Thursday the upper level Low will move south and open up into an open trough as it approaches the area. Some dry slotting will take place as it does so which keeps most of the area dry outside of an isolated shower over the Kaibab Plateau. By Thursday night into Friday as the trough approaches it picks up some more moisture and this will lead to a wet day early Friday into early Saturday. Although a bit cooler than the last system, it will still be primarily a rainmaker with snow levels hovering between 7000-7500ft. By the time the cooler air makes it into the area and drops the snow level to 6000-6500 feet Saturday morning, most of the moisture will have exited the area.

By Saturday afternoon another ridge moves into the area which will keep things dry for the rest of the weekend with temperatures warming up once again to 5-10 degrees above average.

On Monday a deeper and colder trough starts digging in off the West Coast potentially leading to a pattern change that we haven't seen in awhile. Multiple shortwaves will eject off of this trough with the first arriving as soon as Monday. Still some uncertainty on when each wave will move through and how intense they will be but it does look like some impacts will be expected. Preliminary messaging to partners will be going out this afternoon.

AVIATION...Thursday 12/06Z through Friday 13/06Z

VFR conditions. Light and VRB winds before 18Z, then becoming S/SW 5-15 with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds becoming light and VRB once again after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 13/06Z through Sunday 15/06Z...MVFR and occasional IFR conditions possible in SHRA/SHSN through 15Z Sunday, then VFR. Winds SW-NW 5-10 kts each day.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions expected Thursday with cooler temperatures and increasing chances for rain and high elevation snow showers Thursday night through Friday. Precipitation amounts mostly between 0.10- 0.50", with the highest amounts over the Kaibab Plateau, Mogollon Rim, and White Mountains. Expect southwest winds 10-20 mph on Thursday, becoming west through north on Friday. Minimum afternoon RH values between 20-40% on Thursday, increasing to 40-70% on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Isolated to scattered showers ending by midday Saturday, then warming temperatures and dry conditions through Sunday. Scattered to widespread rain and snow showers and colder temperatures are expected to return on Monday. West through north winds 5-15 mph on Saturday, becoming southerly 10-20 mph with gusts 20-30 mph on Sunday, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH values between 20-40% Saturday and Sunday, increasing to 25-50% on Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.