textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warmer weather has arrived for today and will continue through Tuesday. Gusty southwest winds also arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday, a harbinger of cooler temperatures for the middle and end of the week. Slight chances for showers arrive for mainly eastern Arizona Monday and far northern Arizona on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

A s/wv ridge moving through the eastern portions of Arizona today will slightly amplify to our east Sunday and Monday. The ridge will move very slowly eastward, allowing Arizona to remain under above normal hghts, despite being on the western side of the ridge. Boundary layer flow is on the verge of reversing today and we are seeing, and will see, sharply rising afternoon temperatures for the next few days.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong low will move from the EPAC and will shear northeastward into Utah. This will increase our winds and allow for a temperatures drop from Wednesday onward.

As far as precipitation, there are two chances, both are minimal. The first chance is on Monday, as return flow under the ridge brings higher dew points into eastern Arizona. A few high-based convective showers are possible as a a result. The second chance is with the cold front on Wednesday. However, this looks like it will be mainly be for far, far northern Arizona, as the front is largely dry and weakening as the parent low moves north.

After that, rather bland and normal looking zonal flow arrives for the end of the work week. Next weekend could feature some chaotic flow over the west that may result in QPF chances, but this is subject to much change at this point.

AVIATION...Monday 20/00Z through Tuesday 21/00Z

Expect VFR conditions. An isolated virga or light shower possible over the highest elevations through around 01Z this evening. There is a chance of light showers or thunderstorms over and just north of the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains from 18Z Mon to 00Z Tuesday. Gusty/erratic winds to 35 kts could accompany showers. Wind becoming light and variable or terrain driven overnight, then S-SW 5-15 kts after 18Z Monday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 21/00Z through Thursday 23/00Z...Expect VFR conditions. Light and variable winds Monday night into Tuesday morning. S-SW 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts Tuesday afternoon, SW 10-15kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. After 17Z Wednesday, S-SW winds increase to 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average. Isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible over the higher terrain on Monday, with things drying out again on Tuesday. Winds S-SW 5-15 mph Monday, increasing to S-SW 10- 20 mph, gusts to 30 mph on Tuesday. Minimum RH values 15-35% Monday, drying out to 10-20% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Things turn cooler for the rest of the week, with temperatures dropping close to seasonal averages. Winds SW 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph on Wednesday, SW-W 15-25 mph on Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH values between at 10-25% each afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.