textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Warm temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and mainly light southwesterly winds are expected much of this week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Tuesday through Thursday for portions of southern Navajo and Apache counties.

DISCUSSION

A complicated, yet not so complicated pattern will evolve over the next several days. At first glance, it seems like potentially a rather chaotic interaction between troughing to the north, a strong Pacific ridge constantly trying to build eastward and the influence of dry and stable westerlies trying to gain hold from the northwest.

In the middle of all of this will be a weak upper low forming over northern Mexico today through Thursday or Friday. This will enable some southerly/southeasterly flow to develop over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, allowing chances for high-based convection to increase. Although these chances have been fading over the last several model runs, but are still present, especially for the farthest eastern and southeastern zones of our CWA.

Despite that, the convection is not likely to bring much in the way of impacts, but may produce some "dry" lightning and gusty outflow winds for those eastern zones.

Back to the "not so complicated" comment. If one were to simply examine the stability and 500mb hght profiles zoomed in over our area for the next week, it actually doesn't change very much. We still would expect generally dry conditions, average diurnal winds and slightly above normal daytime temperatures in this pattern. Previous runs indicated temperatures would peak around Wednesday or Thursday of this week, but now, models have backed off considerably on deeper troughing for the weekend and into early next week. The warm conditions may persist. All in all, take out the chances for minor showers/thunderstorms for the next few days, the potential uptick in breezes this weekend, and then the overall theme just doesn't change that much.

AVIATION...Tuesday 02/18Z through Wednesday 03/18Z

VFR conditions, dry except for a few isolated thunderstorms over the White Mountains this afternoon. Winds SW-W 10-20kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 03/18Z through Friday 05/18Z...VFR conditions, mainly dry except for some showers/thunderstorms each afternoon over the White Mountains. Winds SW-W 10-20kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday

Primarily dry, but a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southern Apache county by Tuesday afternoon, increasing a bit for Wednesday. Any chances for wetting rains will be isolated at best. Daytime winds southwest 10 to 20 mph each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Primarily dry, but chances for showers and thunderstorms remain possible over the White Mountains Thursday afternoon. Daytime winds southwest 10 to 20 mph Thursday and Friday and then 15 to 25 mph for Saturday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.