textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Cool, breezy, and dry conditions continue today. Expect a gradual warming trend with continued dry weather as high pressure builds through the week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure continues to strengthen along the west coast, keeping northern AZ locked in a dry northeast flow. Expect several days quiet weather, with only some occasional passing high clouds and northeast breezes along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Heights at 500mb continue to build overhead, and daytime highs will reach 5-15 degrees above normal by midweek. By late week, long term ensemble guidance indicates the potential for a disturbance to dive from the north and brush past Arizona. However even if this feature manifests, the potential for precipitation is low.

AVIATION...Monday 12/06Z through Tuesday 13/06Z

Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds ENE10-20g25kts, primarily just along and/or SW of the Kaibab Plateau/Mogollon Rim/White Mountain crest, as well as downwind of the Black Hills and the Bradshaw Mountains. Winds mainly in the daytime, but will continue locally overnight, including terminal KSEZ.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 13/06Z through Thursday 15/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds ENE10-20g25kts, primarily just along and/or SW of the Kaibab Plateau/Mogollon Rim/White Mountain crest, as well as downwind of the Black Hills and the Bradshaw Mountains. Winds mainly in the daytime, but will continue locally overnight, including terminal KSEZ.

FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday

Cool, locally breezy, and dry conditions will continue. North to northeast winds at 5 to 15 mph with localized gusts near 20 mph both days. Afternoon minimum RH ranging from 20-40%. Wednesday through Friday...Dry, locally breezy and much warmer conditions expected through Thursday, with slight cooling on Friday. North to northeast winds at 5 to 15 mph with localized gusts to 20 mph are forecast. Afternoon minimum RH ranging from 20-40% through Thursday, then 15-25% on Friday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.