textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Expect clear and cool conditions tonight, with generally dry and breezy weather Thursday and Friday. Tropical moisture may return this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

A cold upper low near the Four Corners will eject into Colorado tonight, leaving our skies clear and cool. At the same time, a cold front diving through the Great Plains will bring fairly robust easterly gradients into our state. Most east winds will start on Thursday, peaking early Friday and then dropping off heading into the weekend. Although there will be some locally enhanced gusts over 40 mph at times, much of the area should stay below criteria.

This front is the result of a highly-apmlifed pattern that will spawn a new cut-off low off the Baja Peninsula by Friday. This low will hang around for a few days, potentially tapping into moisture from Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy. Even if these systems do not feed into the low, they are likely to induce a surge through the Gulf of California.

Sounding familiar? Yes, we are entering another weekend with the potential for tropical moisture, followed by a cold front later next week. This setup does not look quite as crazy as the last one, but stay in tune with your weather forecasts over the next few days.

AVIATION...Thursday 15/00Z through Friday 16/00Z

VFR conditions expected. Isolated -SHRA north of a KPGA-KRQE line through 03Z, elsewhere will be dry. Light and variable winds overnight, outside localized breezy NE winds downwind of terrain. After 15Z, look for N-NE winds 15-25 kts gusting near 35 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 16/00Z through Sunday 18/00Z...VFR conditions forecast through the period. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible along and south of the Mogollon Rim after 18Z Saturday. Winds will be out of the E-NE through the period, initially between 15-25 kts on Friday, becoming lighter 10-20 kts on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Cool and windy conditions throughout the period. Winds are northeast through east 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Thursday through Friday, remaining elevated overnight. Strongest winds will be along/downwind of higher terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties and north of the White Mountains. Min RH is 30-60% on Thursday then 20-40% on Friday. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal.

Saturday through Monday...Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain for each day. Winds are 10-20 mph from the east on Saturday, light and variable on Sunday, then southwest 5-15 mph on Monday. Daytime temperatures remain 5-10 degrees cooler than normal.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.