textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry, cool, and windy weather will continue through Friday. Tropical moisture may return this weekend and into next week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Strong easterly gradients across the southwestern United States will continue through late Friday. Wind speeds by late this morning had exceeded all guidance in a few places, enough to assume that this will continue for awhile. So, we issued a Wind Advisory for our western zones for now. There is also indication that a band of stronger winds will develop over southern Navajo and Apache counties later tonight and more zones may need to be added.

By the start of the weekend, the easterlies will subside as a weak upper low off the Baja Peninsula gets picked up by an amplifying eastern Pacific trough. This will, once again, pick up some tropical moisture and slowly introduce shower chances back to our area. By early next week, a strong trough will move into the remnant moisture and provide several days of showers and thunderstorms, possibly even through the end of the week. If this sounds familiar, it is, because we just did it last week. Will this be a repeat? Maybe, stay tuned and find out!

AVIATION...Friday 16/06Z through Saturday 17/06Z

VFR conditions expected. North through east winds forecast through the period, generally between 15-25 kts, with localized gusty winds near 40-50 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/06Z through Monday 19/06Z...Winds will remain elevated out of the east through 10Z Saturday, before becoming light/variable through the end of the period. VFR conditions expected.

FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday

Expect cool with gusty conditions. Winds are northeast to east 15-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph tonight through Friday afternoon. Locally gustier winds up to 55 mph possible along and southwest of terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties. Winds gradually diminish for Friday night, then become east through southeast 10-20 mph on Saturday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives by Saturday evening. Min RH is 20-35% each day. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal.

Sunday through Tuesday...Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Sunday, chances increasing and spreading to most of Northern AZ on Monday and Tuesday. Winds are light and variable on Sunday, becoming south 5-15 mph on Monday, then south through southwest 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ Friday for AZZ004- 006>008-015-037-038.