textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather through the next week. Hot daytime temperatures are expected with isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain each day.

DISCUSSION

High pressure remains across the state today with similar conditions expected through this evening. Expect showers and thunderstorms to form across the higher terrain this afternoon, then gradually pushing towards the west into this evening. With some instability present we could see some stronger to possibly severe storms. Heavy rain with the potential for localized flooding will also be possible as storm motions remain on the slower side and we could see some training of storms.

Heat will also continue in the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and Glen and Marble Canyons. The Extreme Heat Warning was extended for these areas through 8 PM Saturday. It looks like the heat will break once the high becomes settled over the Four Corners and we see moisture finally push into northern Arizona, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The active pattern looks to hold through next week as the high looks to remain near or over the Four Corners. Temperatures will cool but will still remain above normal through the period. Overall, expect the monsoon to be the main story for at least the next week.

AVIATION...Friday 07/06Z through Saturday 08/06Z

Expect VFR conditions overnight and outside of any thunderstorms. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA along and west of the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns from 20Z-03Z Friday and Friday evening, dissipating Friday night. ISOLD cells north and northeast of these areas. Heavier storms will produce brief MVFR/IFR and wind gusts to 40kts. Sfc winds generally light outside of thunderstorms and outflows.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 08/06Z through Monday 10/06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA from 18Z-03Z each day, especially along and near the Mogollon Rim and White Mtns. Heavier storms will produce brief MVFR/IFR and wind gusts to 40kts. Sfc winds generally light outside of thunderstorms and outflows.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Above normal temperatures with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, greatest coverage across the higher terrain each afternoon/evening. Stronger storms may contain heavy rain, small hail, frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic winds. Outside of storms, expect variable winds around 5-15 mph. Minimum RH values 5-15% across NE Arizona, 20-40% elsewhere.

Sunday through Tuesday...Above normal temperatures continue with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. Stronger storms may contain heavy rain, small hail, frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic winds. Outside of storms, expect variable winds around 5-15 mph. Moisture will continue to increase across the entire region through the week.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Saturday for AZZ005-006.