textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions and warming temperatures are expected for the coming week. Winds will primarily be light, aside from slightly breezier westerly winds Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

A strong area of high pressure to the south remains in control for the duration of the forecast period. This largely keeps the storm track well to the north, resulting in dry conditions prevailing for the forcible future. A glancing blow by a shortwave may lead to a slight uptick in winds on Tuesday and Wednesday, but winds are otherwise expected to remain light. Given the abnormally strong ridge, temperatures look to climb each day, with high temperatures expected to be 15-20F above normal (potentially near records) by weeks end.

Ensemble guidance does hint at the potential for a return of moisture in the 8-10 day period, albeit not overwhelming likely with the latest runs. However, with a strong low remaining over Hudson Bay, the east Pacific ridge may hold strong. Thus, confidence remains very low at this time.

AVIATION...Monday 23/12Z through Tuesday 24/12Z

VFR conditions with VRB winds 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 24/12Z through Thursday 26/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds W 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts each day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday

Warm and dry conditions. Winds light and variable today, becoming west 10-15 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-30% each day.

Wednesday through Friday...Continued warm and dry conditions. Winds west 10-20 mph on Wednesday, becoming north 5-10 mph on Thursday, then shifting to the west on Friday. Minimum afternoon RH 20-35% on Wednesday, falling to 10-20% for Thursday and Friday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.