textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Widespread rainfall comes to an end early this morning. There have been numerous reports of flooding/flash flooding, especially along and south of the rim. This continues to be a serious situation for areal and river flooding, despite a dry forecast for the next several days. Stay away from waterways, and if you come to a flooded road, turn around, don't drown.

DISCUSSION

Rain gauge and radar data suggest a widespread area 2 to 5 inches of rain (locally higher) has fallen since yesterday across and south of the Mogollon Rim, with some stream gauges exceeding record stage heights. A mid-level trough has started to push off to the east and drier air follows in the wake of a frontal passage, leaving a mostly dry and benign forecast for the rest of this week. River flooding may continue into at least Wednesday, with one of the most notable impacts expected at Winslow. A record flood stage has been observed early this morning on the Little Colorado at Winslow, with the levee expected to be overtopped within the next several hours.

Light snow accumulations were found mostly above 7500 feet tonight and freezing temperatures will make for slick spots this morning. After clearing this morning, mostly clear skies will dominate the forecast and aid in the start of drying amidst widespread flooding. Please visit or webpage for the latest flood warning products.

AVIATION...Monday 02/12Z through Tuesday 03/12Z

Just a few isolated light showers remain this morning, but should completely dissipate by mid-morning with drier conditions expected over the next several days. CIGs under 3kft are expected to lift after 14Z with partly cloudy skies expected through this afternoon. Areas of gusty southwest to west winds this morning are expected to shift to the northwest late this morning. Wind speeds will generally remain around 10 knots or less, but KPGA and KINW may continue to see northwest gusts to around 18 knots through the afternoon. Clear skies and light winds overnight Monday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 03/12Z through Thursday 05/12Z...VFR continues. Passing high clouds are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning with light winds expected through the next morning and wind directions being determined my more localized effects rather than regional flow. Winds look to turn westerly Wednesday morning but remain light to moderate, and then turn northerly later that day with typical diurnal winds expected Wednesday night into Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday

A cold front will push most of the precipitation out of the region this morning as skies clear to allow for improvement of some flooded areas. Winds will shift toward the west through northwest around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to around 30 mph in eastern Arizona. Winds will then be easterly at 5 to 15 mph Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...A drier weather pattern is expected through this period. Winds turn back southwesterly 5 to 15 mph for Wednesday. Winds are then expected to become light Thursday and Friday. Daily minimum RH mostly in the 30 to 50 percent range.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 5 AM MST early this morning for AZZ004>018- 037>040.