textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild temperatures are expected to continue through the next week. Scattered rain showers continue through early Friday afternoon, followed by drier conditions over the weekend. Unsettled weather returns next week as several disturbances cross the state.

DISCUSSION...Today

The shortwave trough that brought mild and moist conditions to northern AZ during the past few days is currently weakening while passing to our north. Any modest dynamic lift is quickly moving past our region and being replaced with subsidence aloft. With lingering low-level moisture, we will continue to see light and scattered upslope showers. This morning will see the lowest snow levels of the event, reaching as low as 7500-8500 ft. However with an increasingly shallow saturated layer, it will generally be too warm for ice crystals to form within the cloud for most high elevation sites. That being said, a light dusting of snow along the Kaibab Plateau above 7500 ft still cannot be ruled out this morning. Showers look to mostly diminish by the early afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday...We will see at least a brief reprieve from showers as high pressure centers overhead while troughing looms off the Pacific Coast. Saturday will see lighter winds, some high cloud cover, and temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. By Sunday, there is already a slight chance for some showers to return as a weak shortwave grazes by, with the best chances in far northwestern AZ.

Monday and beyond...All signs point towards unsettled next week. The model consensus brings a series of troughs across the southwest with considerable deviations among individual ensemble members. A small number of solutions are bringing a more notable snow event by late next week, but confidence is still low. Stay tuned to the forecast!

AVIATION...Friday 02/18Z through Saturday 03/18Z

Areas of MVFR and localized IFR in BR and low ceilings will continue through around 20Z over higher terrain areas (mainly above 6000 ft elevation), with otherwise gradually improving conditions this afternoon. After 02Z, patchy BR/FG and low ceilings will return to these same areas, and possibly some of the valley areas of Yavapai/Gila counties as well. SW to W winds 10-20 kts through 01Z, becoming light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 03/18Z through Monday 05/18Z...VFR conditions expected through 15Z Sunday, then areas MVFR developing and persisting into Monday. Isolated -SHRA from late Sunday afternoon into the evening, increasing in coverage later Sunday night into Monday and mixing with snow above 7000-8000 feet. Light southerly winds around 5-8 kts Saturday increase to 10-20 kts from the SW on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Scattered light rain showers will continue through Friday morning, tapering off in the afternoon. Daytime temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal both days. Southwest winds around 10-20 mph will continue Friday, turning more westerly in the afternoon. Lighter winds are expected Saturday, mainly 10 mph or less.

Sunday through Tuesday...An unsettled weather pattern will continue with a decreasing trend in temperatures. Expect additional precipitation chances, primarily Monday and again Tuesday afternoon. Mostly rain is expected with snow levels ranging from 7,000 to 8,000 feet. Winds will be primarily from the southwest around 10-20 mph each day. A colder storm system is possible late next week that could lead to mountain snowfall potential.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.