textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Breezy and cool weather continues today. After a warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday, rain shower chances return for late Thursday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Troughing continues to our north today, with another weak s/wv slated to move through northern Arizona this evening. Due to the northern extent of this energy, much drier and stable air has moved into Arizona, we are not expecting any showers. However, we are still the beneficiary of cool and breezy conditions that persist as this trough remains in place.

This pattern relaxes a bit Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for less wind and a modest warming trend. However, the pattern never really goes away.

By Thursday and Friday, a strong wave will take a path much farther to the south, allowing for moisture advection into Arizona. Current trends have backed off on amounts, as the sub-tropical tap does not develop until the system is almost east of the state. There will be enough moisture and a cold pool aloft during this time frame to not completely rule out precipitation, but chances and amounts are fading and moving east.

A s/wv ridge traverses the state for the upcoming weekend, making for a pleasant Verde Valley Fair. By early next week, more troughing starts to develop. Time will tell if this means precipitation for us.

AVIATION...Tuesday 28/06Z through Wednesday 29/06Z

VFR conditions. Winds light and variable through 17Z. After 17Z, winds increasing to SW at 5-15 kts gusting to 25 kts through 02Z, then diminishing to light and variable.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 29/06Z through Friday 01/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions are forecast. Look for a 10-20% chance of showers after 00Z Thursday, increasing to 20-40% after 12Z Thursday. Daytime winds SW-W at 5-15 kts gusting to 25 kts Wednesday then becoming W-NW at 5-15 kts on Thursday. Winds light and variable overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Wednesday

Much lower humidity combined with gusty winds will lead to a small area of near-critical fire weather today on the north side of the White Mountains into the Little Colorado River Valley. For Tuesday and Wednesday, expect dry and warmer weather, with daytime humidity as low as 10-20%. Winds will be W to SW around 10-20 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...The passage of another low pressure system will bring a 20-50% chance of light rain showers Thursday and lingering into Friday. Precipitation has been trending further south and east, the best chances expected over the White Mountains. Winds will shift to the W to NW on Thursday and then to the N to NW on Friday, around 10-20 mph both days.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.