textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected to continue through much of the weekend. By late Sunday/early Monday, cooler temperatures and slight chances for showers return to the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Similar weather that you saw for the Thanksgiving Holiday will be around today, where daytime highs are forecast to land a few degrees above normal and mostly dry conditions should persist. This mild and dry weather is anticipated to stick around through much of the weekend as well, but we'll gradually start to see a pattern shift by late Sunday.

A low pressure system will push southward Sunday evening/Monday morning, looking to barely clip the Four Corners Region. For awhile, there was potential for this system to bring more impactful winter weather across northern Arizona, but with each updated guidance run, the system trends more eastward. As result, we are seeing a warmer and drier system come through. The Chuska Mountains could see light snowfall accumulation, but outside of this High Country location, precipitation chances look to be 10-20% along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Outside of the potential for moisture, cooler temperatures and breezy winds will also be associated with this low, so expect a chilly/breezy start to next week.

The extended range forecast is a mixed bag to say the least. Arizona should remain under a more unsettled pattern, with cooler daytime highs and breezy afternoon winds being the main story. There could be another winter-storm system that moves through middle to late next week, but confidence is very low on any precipitation chances at this point.

AVIATION...Friday 28/12Z through Saturday 29/12Z

VFR conditions with light winds becoming W/W at 5-15 kts during the daytime hours. Light and variable winds return after sunset.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 29/12Z through Monday 01/12Z...Light and variable winds less than 10 kts on Saturday, followed by increased SW winds 10-15 kts gusting around 25 kts on Sunday. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, with a 20-30% chance for -SHRA/-SHSN and MVFR conditions 00Z - 12Z Monday from KFLG northward.

FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday

Dry and mild weather will continue through Saturday. Winds will be from the southwest at 10-20 mph on Friday, decreasing to around 10 mph or less on Saturday and more variable in direction. Maximum ventilation will reach fair to good for a few hours each afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday...Southwest winds increase on Sunday to 15-20 mph gusting 25-30 mph in advance of a weather system approaching the Four Corners. This system will bring a 20-30% chance for light rain and snow showers to areas from the Mogollon Rim northward Sunday night into Monday, along with colder temperatures Monday. Wetting precipitation is not likely. Winds gradually shift to the north to northeast around 10-20 mph Sunday night into Monday, and then return to the southwest around 10-15 mph on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.