textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mainly dry and warm. Expect chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms again Thursday, primarily over southern Apache County. Mainly light southwest through westerly winds through Friday, with stronger southwest winds developing over the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Expect one more day of shower and thunderstorm chances, primarily over southern Apache County, before drier and more stable conditions set up for most of the remaining forecast period. This moisture has been moving around a weak upper low over northern Mexico, also aided by large-scale outflows from New Mexico and west Texas. The deeper moisture has pooled in the SE corner of Arizona, but extends toward the White Mountains. Elevated convective development over the White Mountains will move south and southeast into this deeper moisture this afternoon, although most of the stronger storms will be outside of our CWA.

After today, a very slight chance of high-based convection will linger into Friday, but most likely will just take the form of shallow CU and some VIRGA.

For the weekend and into early next week, hghts drop a bit as a longer wave trough sets up to our north. This will likely lead to an extended period of windy conditions, with a very dry boundary layer and seasonable temperatures. There is a chance of moisture return toward the end of the 7 day period, but confidence is low.

AVIATION...Thursday 04/18Z through Friday 05/18Z

VFR conditions persist with FEW-SCT cumulus clouds developing over the high terrain. Expect isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA along and south of a KSOW-KSJN line for this afternoon. Westerly winds, 15-25 kts, through 02Z/03Z relaxing thereafter.

OUTLOOK...Friday 05/18Z through Sunday 07/18Z...VFR conditions remain with variable cloud cover each afternoon. Plan on west- northwest, 15-25 kts, on Friday followed by stronger southwest winds, 20-35 kts, for Saturday and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Primarily dry. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms Thursday, mainly over southern Apache County. Isolated wetting rain possible under the stronger storms. A slight chance of high-based convection possible Friday over the higher terrain of Apache County, but any rain Friday will be very light. Daytime winds SW-W from 10 to 20 mph each day, with gusts to 25 mph possible Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Dry and warm, becoming breezy to windy at times. Daytime winds southwesterly 15 to 25 mph, with gusts from 30 to 35 mph each day. Minimum relative humidity values generally below 15 percent, so areas of near critical fire weather conditions may become possible.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.