textproduct: NWS Flagstaff
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Gradually warmer and dry conditions are expected through at least the middle of this week. Cooler, more unsettled weather looks to return by the weekend.
DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday
Drier air sets in today across northern Arizona behind the departing low. Zonal flow sets in across much of Arizona through at least the middle of this week, keeping dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures in store for the region. Winds look to mainly be light and variable to start, gradually tending south/southwestward through the week.
Friday onward...A deepening trough over the northwest, and a strong sub-tropical jet over the Pacific will help increase moisture advection into Arizona by the end of the week. Precipitation looks to being late Friday and then continue into Sunday. As the trough begins to dig and the jet becomes further enhanced, deeper moisture looks to move into the region on Sunday.
Uncertainty remains in the exact setup going into the end of the week, thus confidence in any specific details remains low. As of now the latest operational ECMWF seems to favor a wetter solution with a stronger sub-tropical jet, while the GFS favors a weaker and faster jet and therefore lighter QPF amounts. Looking at the ensemble guidance, most of the EPS and CMCE members favor the wetter ECMWF solution while the GEFS members mostly lean towards the drier GFS solution. This leans towards the wetter solution being more likely, however with some model disagreement confidence will remain low. Nevertheless, a return of cooler and more unsettled conditions look to set in by the end of the week.
AVIATION...Monday 26/18Z through Tuesday 27/18Z
VFR conditions with VRB winds 5-10 kts.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 27/18Z through Thursday 29/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds S/SW 5-15 kts each day, becoming light and VRB overnight.
FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday
Dry conditions and gradual warming. Light and variable winds today, becoming south/southwest 5- 15 mph on Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...Continued warming temperatures and dry conditions, before chances for showers and thunderstorms return late Thursday and Friday. South/southwest winds 5-15 mph on Wednesday, increasing to 10-20 mph on Thursday and Friday.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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