textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild and dry weather remains through Thursday, before cooler conditions and precipitation chances return late Friday into Saturday. A brief return of drier weather is expected early next week, before unsettled weather sets in by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION...Today and Thursday

High pressure remains in control over Arizona over the next couple of days. Near-normal temperatures and dry conditions look to prevail as a result, along with light winds.

Friday and Saturday...A weakening low ejects off the Pacific on Friday into southern California. Moisture advection looks to increase over the region, leading to showers developing late Friday across central Arizona.

A secondary, stronger trough looks to set in over much of the west on Saturday. With the area already primed from the earlier low, a more widespread round of showers looks likely. With the upper-level jet largely in place across far northern Arizona, the greatest chances for precipitation look to be focused along the higher terrain near the Arizona-Utah border. However, given the lack of robust forcing, overall QPF amounts look to be on the lighter side. Much of the guidance seems to favor around 0.30-0.60 inches across the higher terrain (especially north) and only a few hundredths to a couple tenths possible in the lower elevations.

700 mb temperatures remain fairly warm around 0C to -2C, which should keep snow levels around 8000-9000 feet. Thus, the most likely areas will to see any snowfall will be across only the highest elevations. Some snow may mix in late Saturday down to around 7000 feet, however accumulations look to be unlikely.

Gusty southwest winds also look to be likely on Saturday. As of now, the strongest gusts look to mainly be in the 35-45 mph and mainly downwind of the Mogollon Rim, across the Little Colorado River Valley and into portions of Navajo Nation. A Wind Advisory may be needed for these areas Saturday afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure briefly builds back into Arizona for the start of the week, ushering in a return of milder temperatures and drier conditions. This looks to be short-lived however, as a more potent low looks to move into the region on Tuesday. Confidence remains low at this point however, as model solutions still differ on the exact track and depth of the low at this point. Nevertheless, unsettled weather looks to set in by the middle of next week.

AVIATION...Thursday 12/00Z through Friday 13/00Z

VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable overnight except KSEZ where NE 10kts, gusts to 20kts can be expected. Daytime winds E-SE 5-15kts Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Friday 13/00Z through Sunday 15/00Z...VFR through 00Z Saturday, VFR-MVFR 00Z Saturday onward as scattered rain showers and thunderstorms move in. Winds S-SW 10-20kts daytime Friday, increasing to S-SW 15-25kts, gusts to 35kts on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Dry conditions on Thursday, then increasing chances for showers along/south of the Mogollon Rim on Friday evening. Winds are southeast through south at 5-10 mph on Thursday, becoming south through southwest 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Coverage of showers will expand to most of northern Arizona on Saturday, quickly diminishing towards the evening. Mostly dry conditions return for Sunday and Monday. Generally light snow accumulations are possible above 8000 ft on Saturday. Winds are south to southwest 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30- 40 mph on Saturday, becoming light on Sunday, then south 5-15 mph on Monday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.