textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Windy and cooler conditions will continue through Friday with a trough over the Great Basin. Critical fire weather conditions are also expected over portions of northeastern Arizona. Warmer conditions and lighter winds return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Upper level low responsible for our breezy conditions is parked over Reno and will slide southeastward along the Sierra crest starting on Thursday. Expect breezy days to continue through Friday which combined with some low afternoon humidity values will bring critical fire weather concerns over the northeastern high deserts. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for Thursday where the threat is highest and may be issued again on Friday if trends continue. No precipitation is expected for most of the state, with the exception of far northwestern Arizona where an isolated shower is possible as the low brushes by.

By Friday night through Saturday the low moves northeast into Utah and Wyoming, weakening as it does. A ridge will gradually build over the central US that will place our region under a southwestern flow aloft. This will keep the area dry and allow temperatures to warm up to seasonal averages this weekend and slightly above average temperatures to start off next week.

AVIATION...Thursday 28/00Z through Friday 29/00Z

Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds S-SW10-20g25-35kts through 02Z-03Z, 10-15kts overnight. Sfc winds S-SW15-25g30-35kts AFT 15Z-17Z Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Friday 29/00Z through Sunday 31/00Z...Expect VFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW15-25g30-35kts expected for Friday and then decreasing to SW-W10-20kts for Saturday. Winds overnight expected to be generally 5-15kts.

FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday

Dry and windy conditions expected to continue. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Little Colorado River Valley and Northeast Plateaus For Thursday afternoon and evening, with near-critical fire weather conditions elsewhere. Look for south through southwest winds 15-25 mph, with gusts 30-40 mph each afternoon, and remaining elevated out of the south (5-15 mph) overnight. Expect minimum RH values 5-15% on Thursday, becoming 10-20% on Friday.

Saturday through Monday....Dry and warm conditions forecast through the weekend and into next week, but lighter winds are anticipated. Minimum RH values will be between 5-15% each afternoon. Winds will generally be west-southwest each day at 5-15 mph.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ109-112-113-140.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ112>114-140.