textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Mild temperatures, mainly dry conditions and occasional afternoon breezes are expected into the weekend. Despite the dry forecast, flooding continues in spots. Stay away from waterways and if you come to a flooded road, turn around, don't drown.

DISCUSSION

A weak and dry shortwave trough will approach northern Arizona Tuesday night then brush across the area on Wednesday. The main impact of this system will be the development after midnight of locally gusty south winds 10-20 mph along and just north of terrain features across the area from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. During the day Wednesday, as the trough begins to head away from Arizona, west to northwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting to around 25 mph will develop. The higher gusts will be primarily located over the mountain areas extending from the White Mountains/Mogollon Rim to the New Mexico/Utah borders. The trough will be well out of the area by Thursday with a return to light and variable winds.

From Friday into Monday...High pressure will build over the Great Basin while a weak low pressure system spins up over Baja California. Arizona will be located between these two systems. A more moderate air mass with this pattern will result in warmer daytime temperatures. In addition, surface pressure gradients will shift to favor north to northeast breezes at 10-20 mph. From the Mogollon Rim southward, in locations where northeast winds typically funnel, look for gusts around 25 mph. There is just a hint of lingering moisture on Friday over the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim as this pattern develops. A a result, the combination of moisture and daytime heating will result in a slight chance of a few instability showers developing. Elsewhere, remaining dry.

Beyond Monday...A more unsettled pattern develops with chances for showers returning later next week.

AVIATION...Wednesday 04/06Z through Thursday 05/06Z

VFR conditions. Winds VRB 5-10 kts through 18Z, then becoming W/SW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 05/06Z through Saturday 07/06Z...VFR conditions. Winds VRB 5-10 kts on Thursday, becoming N/NE 5-15 kts Thursday night into Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Wednesday and Thursday..Dry conditions with seasonably cool temperatures. Winds becoming west to northwest at 5- 15 mph on Wednesday, with gusts as high as 25-35 mph along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Thursday will see a return to light and variable winds at 5-10 mph. Minimum RH generally above 40%.

Friday through Sunday...Mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Slight chance of showers over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Friday afternoon. Winds becoming north to northeast at at 5-15 mph on Friday and Saturday. Local gusts to 25 mph along and south of the Mogollon Rim, especially Saturday morning. Light and variable winds return on Sunday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.