textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions with near-record high temperatures are expected through the weekend. Winds will remain light, before increasing early next week, along with a slight dip in temperatures.

DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday

A strong area of high pressure remains in control over Arizona through this weekend. As a result, well above normal temperatures are expected through this weekend. Afternoon highs look to climb to nearly 15-20F above normal, with some record highs likely being exceeded.

Monday onward...A weak trough ejects off the Pacific and moves into the Great Basin early next week. As the trough approaches, winds look to increase on Monday with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible over the higher terrain. As heights begin to fall, cooler, but still above normal, temperatures look to set in as well.

With the low tracking north of Arizona, therefor any moisture looks to be confined to the north. Virtually all of the EPS, CMCE, and GEFS ensemble members keep dry conditions in northern Arizona, with only a small handful showing a hundredth of an inch or so for QPF. Any chances mentionable chances for precipitation are confined for the higher terrain of far northern Arizona on Tuesday, and even then, any precipitation that does develop will be minimal.

In the wake of the trough, more zonal flow looks to set in across Arizona. Occasional shortwave passages to the north look to keep breezy and cooler temperatures in store through the rest of the work week. Dry conditions look to prevail as well for most, with the storm track still largely to the north.

AVIATION...Friday 27/12Z through Saturday 28/12Z

VFR conditions expected. Winds are light and VRB or terrain driven through 19Z, becoming W-NW 5-15 kts. Light and VRB winds return after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 28/12Z through Monday 02/12Z...VFR conditions expected. Winds are W 10-20 kts on Saturday, increasing to 15-25 kts on Sunday. Winds are light and VRB during the overnight periods.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Warm and dry conditions. Daytime highs approach 15-20 degrees above normal for late February. Minimum RH is 15-25% each afternoon. Winds are west through northwest 5-15 mph today, turning west through southwest on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday..Mainly dry conditions with a slight cooling trend. Daytime highs drop to 5-10 degrees above normal by Tuesday. Winds are southwest 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on Sunday and Monday, then west through northwest 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.