textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

A weak weather disturbance will deliver cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions this weekend, along with a chance of showers tonight into Sunday. Some light snow is possible above around 6500 feet elevation. Conditions stay breezy on Monday, but warmer and drier weather will develop during the Monday through Wednesday time frame. Showers then return late next week.

DISCUSSION

A weakening low just off the central California coast this afternoon will move onshore tonight before shearing into Utah for Sunday. Moisture ahead of this trough has moved into southern California, western and central Arizona and will continue to advect ahead of a cold front due later tonight.

This front will provide enough dynamical forcing for areas of rain and snow, along with a few thunderstorms, tonight through Sunday afternoon. The best chances are closer to the front and before the parent low falls apart, basically from the Western Mogollon Rim and points north and northeast. By the time this system reaches the White Mountains, there will not be very much left.

Enough cold air exists to bring snow levels down to near 7000 feet tonight and early Sunday. However, surface temperatures hovering just above freezing and strong/gusty southwesterly winds will make accumulations very difficult. We could see an inch or two in the grass with the heavier showers, but most areas will just see a Trace or nothing.

Speaking of winds, breezy conditions this afternoon become downright windy later tonight and Sunday, associated with the front. Locations lee of higher terrain will see the worst of it. A Wind Advisory is already in effect for a large portion of our area Sunday and this looks good.

Another tough prolongs breezy weather on Monday, with some recovery and warming Tuesday and Wednesday. Farther out next week, a second and potentially wetter system could develop for Thursday and Friday. We will wait and see on that one.

AVIATION...Saturday 25/18Z through Sunday 26/18Z

VFR conditions most areas. Isolated -SHRA developing after 22Z, then increasing in coverage from west to east after 06Z Sunday. Highest coverage of showers through 12Z Sunday west of a KPAN-KRQE line. MVFR and brief IFR in precipitation. Winds becoming S-SW 15-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts after 15-18Z. SW wind remaining elevated at 10-20 kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 26/18Z through Tuesday 28/18Z...Scattered showers through around 15Z Sunday, becoming more isolated through the afternoon. -SHSN possible above 6500 ft msl, including KFLG/KGCN. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will exit the area after 00Z Monday with dry conditions the rest of the outlook period. Winds SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-45 kts Sunday, SW 5-15 kts Sunday night, SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts Monday.

FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday

A cold front will bring rain and high elevation snow showers, with isolated thunderstorms, to portions of the area through Sunday afternoon. Good chances for a wetting rainfall are forecast across the Kaibab/Coconino National Forests, as well as the mountains of the Prescott National Forecast and Navajo Nation. In addition, strong southwest winds with speeds from 20-30 mph, gusting 40-55 mph, are forecast Sunday for areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Warmer and drier weather is expected Monday, with southwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph during the afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...On Tuesday and Wednesday, expect dry weather and a warming trend. Southwest winds of 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph, are forecast for higher terrain both afternoons. On Thursday, a 20-40% chance of showers is forecast due to the passage of another low pressure system.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ009>017-039-040.