textproduct: NWS Flagstaff

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will remain in control of our weather through the next week. Isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain each day. Hot daytime temperatures are expected, with a slight cooling through midweek.

DISCUSSION

Very strong high pressure continues to dominate the weather across Arizona, with a gradual shift to the north over the next few days. Dry air aloft continues to inhibit convective development. Additionally, the dust lofted into the air along with debris clouds have remained across much of central Arizona today. As a result, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain, mainly focused over eastern Arizona through Tuesday. Storm activity remains diurnally driven with showers and storms dissipating as we head into the evening.

Heat remains the main story through much the week, especially over the Grand Canyon where the heat will linger through the weekend. Extreme Heat Warnings continue over the Grand Canyon and Glen and Marble Canyons through Wednesday but will likely need to be extended, possibly into the weekend.

As the high starts to push to the north, an increase in moisture occurs and temperatures will slightly cool. The placement of the high looks to remain in a favorable position for the region to allow for the monsoon to ramp up for a couple of days as we head towards the end of the week. Expect daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, especially across the higher terrain. A slight downturn in activity may occur over the weekend but does not have a lot of support in the operational models at this time. With the high not moving much, continue to expect a more active pattern to return with continued hot conditions.

AVIATION...Wednesday 05/00Z through Thursday 06/00Z

Expect mainly VFR conditions. Isolated SHRA/TSRA along and to the east of a KFLG-KPAN line through 03Z. Brief and localized MVFR/IFR and gusty winds to 35 kts possible with storms. After 03Z, Storm activity ending. Winds outside of storms southwest to west at 10-20 kts in the daytime, light and variable at night.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 06/00Z through Saturday 08/00Z...Expect primarily VFR conditions. Scattered SHRA/TSRA from 19Z-03Z each day. Storms most likely over the higher terrain of central and eastern Arizona then moving to the southwest to west toward lower elevations each day. Winds outside of storms generally light.

FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday

Continued very warm, due to the lack of rainfall. Chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Wednesday. Coverage increases and pushes farther west on Thursday. Afternoon winds ranging from westerly to southwesterly and generally 5 to 15 mph, outside of thunderstorm activity.

Friday through Sunday...Above normal temperatures continue. Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage along, west and south of the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Winds generally light.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday for AZZ005-006.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ009- 010-012>014-040.