textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 1 of 5 chance for isolated severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across parts of west central Minnesota, and a 1 of 5 chance for isolated severe storms Thursday afternoon in northeast North Dakota.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday, July 4th, along with the potential for heavy rain in some areas during the evening and overnight hours.

UPDATE

Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms across northwest Minnesota overnight with around a tenth of an inch possible for locations impacted. Otherwise quiet conditions on this first night of July

..Severe Thunderstorms Possible July 4th and into the Weekend

As the front continues to slowly push to the east, moisture continues to build into eastern North Dakota and northeast Minnesota. Dew points climb into the low to mid 70s, with afternoon CAPE expected to reach upwards of 3000 to 4000 J/Kg. Shear profiles support large hail and damaging wind gusts, generally favoring line segments and clusters. Supercells are still supported, however, but with a bit more uncertainty that mainly surrounds the timing of the front. Very heavy rain is possible Friday evening and overnight, with PW values of 2+ inches in many areas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR skies through the period with some scattered shower/t storm chances 00z to 12z at TVF and BJI though not high enough confidence to explicitly put them in the tafs due to spotty coverage. Winds becoming light and variable tonight remaining under 10kts through the period. If not for the light nature of winds frequent amds could be needed due to highly unpredictable and variable directions.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.