textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this evening through Thursday morning, with moderate totals greater than 0.25" likely.

- Additional light wetting rain is expected Friday night through Saturday night, and there is the potential for a widespread soaking rain with a system early next week. These rain events may impact outdoor activities and harvest.

..Synopsis

South to southwest H5 flow prevails today, with surface winds out of the south to southeast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected overnight as a shortwave moves along the flow pattern. Most areas should see wetting rains, with the heavier amounts being in west central Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. Heading into Thursday, H5 flow becomes northwesterly, with surface flow remaining out of the south to southeast. Weak shortwave ridging will support slightly warmer high temperatures in the low 70s on Friday. Heading into Saturday, a trough is expected to traverse southwest flow into the Northern Plains, bringing another chance for rain into the region. Ensembles are in reasonably good agreement regarding additional rain chances late Sunday through Tuesday in association with a cold front. At this time, this system carries the potential for much higher rainfall totals over this period, with currently a 25 percent chance for 1 inch or more rain across much of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing to move across eastern ND and northwest MN, with brief visibility reductions in heavier showers (3-6sm). Rain coverage should decrease after 10-12Z as the main mid level system moves through the region, however low level saturation lingering in northwest MN may result in redevelopment of drizzle or light fog Thursday and Thursday night.

MVFR ceilings (already at KDVL) will spread west to east through the overnight period, with IFR ceilings eventually developing. IFR is likely to linger over many locations Thursday with gradual improvement in the afternoon in central ND towards KDVL. The back edge of where clearing may take place will be determined by where a surface low stalls, and a frontal zone sets up (mostly likely west of the Red River Valley). East of this front light southerly BL flow keeps low level moisture advecting into the region and stratus and potential fog will linger into Thursday night. Currently that places KGFK, KFAR within the area where at least MVFR and more likely IFR conditions are expected to continue. In northwest MN LIFR ceilings and MVFR vis may develop (deeper in the low level moisture).

Southeast winds are likely to remain above 12kt through Thursday morning with periodic/less frequent gusts 20-25kt. Surface gradient shifts east as low pressure builds into northeast ND Thursday and winds should eventually drop below 12kt by midday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.