textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog is forecast tonight into Saturday morning. Fog may be dense.

- Dry and seasonably warm through next week.

..Synopsis

Overall, the upper pattern through the next week will promote dry/mostly dry conditions, with a trend toward warmer than average temperatures starting Saturday, lasting through next week.

Main forecast uncertainty revolves around whether or not fog will form tonight, lasting into Saturday morning.

While low stratus has shown a clearing trend, the vast majority of guidance points toward increasing low level moisture content, enough to redevelop low stratus clouds into southern Red River Valley into Minnesota. Within this low stratus deck, fog is expected to develop as a result of low cloud deck "scraping" against the ground.

However, the location and density of fog hold low confidence. This lowered confidence mainly stems from uncertainty in whether or not low clouds dip low enough to become fog (potentially dense) or if low clouds remain just aloft limiting fog. Relatively highest chance for fog to occur reside in the hillier terrain of lakes country in MN.

Other, more localized, locations within northeast ND could experience fog, as driven by radiational fog processes (compared to fog elsewhere driven by advection fog processes).

While not hazardous, Saturday will see winds increase out of the west, with gusts to 30 mph forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Well, today is yet another day of aviation impacts from low ceilings and potentially low vsbys from fog, albeit low confidence abounds in their evolution.

Low ceilings:

While there is relatively high confidence in low stratus in at least IFR category to be present within the Red River Valley into MN, confidence degrades in exact evolution. Recent satellite has been showing trends of clearing from the southeast - which is something almost no guidance has. Questions remain on if this clearing trend will envelope all or most of the remaining stratus. Should this clearing occur, low stratus is still forecast to redevelop after 00Z with an increase in low level moisture being advertised overnight.

Within the southern Red River Valley into MN is where low stratus is most likely to reside overnight into Saturday. There is a medium chance for ceilings to be predominately LIFR at some locations (although low confidence where exactly). Locations like KBJI that are higher in elevation may be more liable to see LIFR ceilings compared to other locations.

Locations like KGFK and KTVF may flirt with the edge of stratus. As of now, guidance keeps KGFK out of stratus with the stratus just to its east, but KTVF in stratus. This however is low in confidence and should be monitored.

Fog:

As far as fog potential tonight into Saturday morning - this is tricky. Should fog develop, it will likely be a result of low stratus scraping the ground in an advection fog-type process. Relatively highest chance for fog to occur resides in the hillier terrain of lakes country in MN, as it may be easier for low stratus to scrape against the higher terrain here. Whether or not this occurs at locations like KBJI remains to be seen. Additionally, there could be a tendency for the edge of the stratus to dip toward the ground, making locations like KGFK, KFAR, and KTVF liable to see fog.

And while there could be localized locations of fog in northeast ND, chance of this occurring at KDVL is very low.

Decided to include a line with BR in TAF sites liable to see fog to highlight the potential timeframe in which fog would develop.

Fog may result in very low visibility (1/2SM or 1/4SM) - again low confidence in this scenario.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.