textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than normal temperatures are expected this week.

- There is a 20% chance for advisory impacts from a wintry mix Thursday night into Friday.

- A more active pattern may continue into next week bringing additional opportunities for winter impacts over parts of the region. Predictability in impacts remains very low beyond Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

No major changes to the forecast/anticipated impacts through mid week, as the pattern will support dry conditions and above average temperatures. There will be a large spread in temperatures north to south, but many locations will be above freezing for highs daily and on Wednesday there is a low chance for southern locations to reach 60F.

Looking ahead to the end of the week, there is a more consistent evolution in the larger scale pattern as troughing builds across the Rockies and into the central CONUS late this week. The pattern beyond this weekend still supports additional troughs, but there remains larger spread within ensemble systems for specific details.

Wintry mix potential late week: The trough late this week is shown to have a split in the main flow aloft over the Northern Plains as the stronger southerly jet remains south of the region and the weaker northern track remains near southern Canada. The split in flow happens to line up over our CWA and leads to less confidence in location/coverage of precipitation accumulation. However, there are trends supporting at least light QPF over parts of our CWA Thursday night into Friday. Moist SW flow ahead of the trough brings stronger WAA northward and initially liquid precipitation would be favored precipitation type in the warm sector ahead of any shortwave trough in the northern stream. This could complicate p-type as colder air arriving with the northern wave undercuts this warm layer and allows for a wintry mix and the potential for light freezing precipitation. NBM probs reflect this with 20% probs for at least 0.01" of ice accumulation mainly from southeast ND into west central and northwest MN. These impacts at this range (dependent on frontal timing and thermal profile evolution) in this type of pattern (interaction of two waves in split flow) naturally carry a lower predictability horizon. It is still 5 days out, but the synoptic pattern/signal is at least consistent enough to start monitoring that period for potential advisory impacts.

..Synopsis

Southerly winds prevail this afternoon and evening as shortwave H5 ridging develops along northwest flow. A much warmer air mass moves into the Northern Plains heading into Monday, with highs climbing well into the 30s to mid 40s from north to south.

Slightly cooler temps are in store for Tuesday as a weak trough traverses the flow and the ridge flattens. Warmer temps return on Wednesday as low level flow turns westerly, allowing afternoon temperatures to reach well into the 50s across parts of southeast North Dakota and the southern Red River Valley. Temps will be slightly cooler for areas north of Highway 200, generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.

A range of potential forecast solutions begins to emerge from Thursday onward, as zonal flow turns slightly southwest. There is a large amount of ensemble disagreement surrounding how amplified the southwest flow actually becomes, with some members hanging onto zonal flow well into the weekend. In either case, there is a signal in a pattern change and a more active period; however, details will largely depend on several factors that are yet to be resolved in synoptic models. At this time, overall predictability is very low, with a general trend towards potential impacts somewhere in the Northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

We have a front coming through the region this evening and overnight which will bring stratus and fog to the region. The question is: which one will it be? At least until then, expect VFR conditions to prevail until this front arrives. As it does, ceilings will be expected to become very low to at least IFR, with some signals to push into LIFR. Areas of fog are expected to develop in tandem with this, but confidence in severity is low. We should see some improvements towards the end of the TAF period as the sun rises and mixing improves. Winds will remain fairly benign and sustained below 10 knots, so impacts will remain limited to fog/stratus.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.