textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms today. The main impacts for any storms that become severe will be ping pong ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph. Flash Flooding is also possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Cloud cover continues to increase this morning across the area. Winds will start to increase out of the south by mid morning, with sustained south to southeast winds of 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph heading into the afternoon. Thunderstorm timing is slightly more resolved in recent guidance, with chances increasing around midday and persisting into the late afternoon to early evening.

..Marginal risk for severe Monday

The ridge axis shifts east tomorrow and the flow aloft becomes southwesterly. Deep layer shear will be increasing up into the 40 to 50 kt range by tomorrow afternoon. But the instability becomes more uncertain. Some of the ensemble members don't have any surface based CAPE at all, but enough do that the mean CAPE into eastern ND is around 1500 J/kg. Much will depend on what exactly happens this evening and into the overnight. HREF and REFS updraft helicity probabilities have some chance, but not super impressive. At this point with all the unknowns the level 1 risk seems reasonable.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Highly variable flight conditions are expected through this evening and overnight as lingering MVFR (pockets of IFR) stratus slowly break up through the early afternoon becoming VFR, while clusters of showers and thunderstorms track west to east through the afternoon and evening. Coverage of thunderstorms will also vary, with the potential for a lull before redevelopment occurs. Brief MVFR or IFR may occur with thunderstorm activity, with some potential for severe storms mainly during the evening hours in ND. Tendency should be for prevailing VFR after the thunderstorm activity ends in ND, however parts of MN remain in the moist air mass ahead of a frontal zone and MVFR or IFR stratus is more likely to redevelop there Sunday morning before clearing with daytime mixing.

Southeast winds periodically gusting around 25kt are expected into the early evening before decreasing and shifting as a front moves through the region. Winds increase from the southwest then west Sunday, and wind gusts 30kt or greater become likely by the afternoon in ND and parts of northwest MN.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.