textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for 1 inch or more of rain 30-40 percent far southeast North Dakota and parts of west central Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Fog has since diminished across the area. Mix of low clouds and sunshine will round out the day along with light winds and mild temperatures.

Guidance continues to keep the lion's share of soaking rainfall south of our area Friday. There is still a subset of guidance that eeks the northern fringes of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall into locations near the SD border/tri-state area into west-central MN. Should this occur, rainfall totals may reach into the 0.8-1.5 inch range. There is around a 30% chance for this to occur. Otherwise, most likely amounts are expected to remain less than half an inch. The chance for 3 or more inches remains very low/nill at this time.

Timing for rainfall in southeast ND into west-central MN begins Friday morning around sunrise, lingering through early to mid afternoon.

A separate area of showers are expected to develop in portions of north-central ND into SK/MB Friday. This could spread into northeast ND and the far northern Red River Valley. Rain amounts will be light, only up to a few hundredths, if this occurs.

UPDATE Issued at 514 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Dense fog advisory issued after coord with BIS/ABR/DLH offices for areas roughly near and south of Hwy 2. In this area skies are clearer, though clouds behind an advancing front is improving things slowly from the north. Sufficient fog and reduced vsbys below 1/2 mile.

Rainfall for Friday is over the southern fcst area, with latest probabilities for 1 inch or more of rain 30-40 percent Wahpeton to Wadena and 45 percent Elbow Lake, to less than 10 percent Fargo.

UPDATE Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Backdoor cold front continues to sag into the CWA, with the main stratus band still near the Canadian border, but some fog starting to form in the clear areas ahead and behind the cloud deck. Visibility has gone down to 1/4 mile at Bemidji airport, but web cams in the area show fairly patchy coverage and not totally socked in yet. Models are all over the place with some showing low visibility in a few spots while others develop cloud cover. Confidence is low in where or if any dense fog will form, so will just keep an eye on things for now.

..Fog potential tonight into early Thursday

Confidence is medium in the occurrence of fog somewhere within eastern ND, although confidence greatly diminishes where this occur with more precision. Driving the fog production is a weak cold front moving into ND from Canada, bringing with it ground- scraping low clouds behind the front. Confidence remains low in more precise locations, with uncertainty mainly stemming from questions on influence of mid level cloud cover.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Main impact to TAFs will be lowered ceilings in the IFR to MVFR categories for sites like KBJI, KTVF, and KFAR. These ceilings are forecast to remain in place (or bounce between SCT and BKN) until starting to diminish late afternoon into early evening. There is a medium chance for these ceilings to spread over KGFK, although confidence is not high enough to include within its TAF at this time.

Winds are forecast to be under 10kt through at least 12Z, increasing out of the south-southeast 10-15kt Friday morning.

Fog potential tonight:

While overall chance for fog over much of the area is currently low, there is a medium chance for fog to develop in portions of west-central MN between 05Z-12Z. This chance encompasses KBJI, although with coverage of fog expected to be more patchy than widespread, confidence is low in its potential for impacts at KBJI - thus, did not include BR/FG at this time.

Elsewhere, the chance for fog is very low with expectation of a light breeze developing.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.