textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread weather impacts are not expected through this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 958 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Light rain continues across much of the FA as of mid morning. NDAWN sites generally show on either side of a tenth of an inch of rain. Rain will continue pushing to the north and east through the day, ending from southwest to northeast this afternoon/evening. Adjusted PoPs to account for this, with other portions of the forecast generally on track.

UPDATE Issued at 608 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Rain area is pretty expansive from NW Ontario back thru mid RRV into southwest ND. This will continue to feed east-northeast today. Did tweek pops to just go likely all day in most of this zone.

..Synopsis

Patches of light rain from southwest and south central ND thru mid and northern Red River valley into far northwest MN at 09z. Mostly sprinkles with trace amounts since 06z but Crary NDAWN had 0.02. Subtle short wave in NW SD will move northeast into the RRV this aftn and then northeast after that. Lots of mid level moisture for light rain today, with amounts overall on the light side. Favored band of light rain today into this evening is near vort max track from near or north of Bismarck to Grand Forks to Baudette, Red Lake MN where QPF amounts are forecast in the 0.10 to 0.20 inch range. For the overnight this upcoming Wed night switched to more of a drizzle as ptype as coord with MPX/DLH and data from HRRR show areas from near Fergus Falls up toward Bemidji likely in low level moisture and potential fog and drizzle. Temps warm enough thru the period for liquid light rain.

Clearing from the west Thursday with WNW winds. Highs still mostly 40-45. Dry stretch of weather Friday thru Sunday as 500 mb flow will be zonal or slight WNW, but northern jet is in central Canada. Thus outside of bands of mid and high clouds, looks quiet with highs in the 40s, a few 50s possible if more sun on any one day, especially southeast ND. Normal highs this weekend for Grand Forks is at 32 so continued well above normal readings.

For next week....Monday will be dry and similar temps to the weekend. Then Tues-Wed period is the most uncertain weather period in regards to a short wave and surface low that the GFS/ECMWF ensemble means and NBM track just north of the International border. Thus Tues period will be on the south side of this and any light precipitation likely to be liquid light rain. A couple of the 00z GFS ensemble members want to take low a bit more south toward the ND border and this if it occurs would indicate snow chances would be higher right along ND/MB border Tuesday aftn/night. Wednesday sees the 500 mb and sfc low move east with ECMWF the stronger of all of the models in terms of intensity and also slowest, with system north of Kenora Ontario 12z Wed and moving east thru the day Wed. GFS is faster. Either way though as system passes by there will a period of windier colder weather and potential for light snow esp northern areas but impacts from this wraparound moisture at this time looks minimal with advisory level impacts for WPC for Wed along the border 5-10 percent.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

For the most part expect IFR or lower end MVFR cigs for E Nd into NW MN into tonight. VFR ceilings BJI area to become lower end MVFR. With that said, do look for the usual holes where the low layer scatters out. South wind 8-15kts today turning southwest and then late tonight west-northwest.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.