textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon continuing through Wednesday. The main hazard with thunderstorm activity will be lightning.
..Showers and storms this afternoon into Wednesday
Strong upper jet traversing the Dakotas into Minnesota is helping supply strong dynamical lift for ascent. This forcing will utilize available, although meager, moisture to produce widespread showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the rest of today, tonight, and into Wednesday. Instability is greatly lacking in our region, particularly as strongest forcing traverses our area tonight. This is nullifying potential for severe weather despite the strong wind energy that could have been harnessed for storm organization and/or wind gusts.
Thus, main hazard with today/tonight/Wednesday's storms will be lightning. There is, however, a small chance in funnels or even perhaps a brief, weak tornado given consolidated spin in the atmosphere as the strong mid level wave moves through - this potential is dependent upon the surface wave lingering longer than currently advertised, near the tri-state area, into this afternoon allowing enough surface heating to get storms to form favorably on lingering boundaries.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Forecast impacts to aviation mainly stem from lowered ceilings, in addition to potential for thunderstorms at TAF sites.
Medium to high chances for precipitation is rather long duration - essentially now through at least 15Z Wednesday morning, highest in southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota tonight. While precipitation will predominately be light rain showers, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast within the region, particularly after midnight. Confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs at this time, however. Chances for additional showers and isolated thunderstorms continues into Wednesday afternoon within portions of southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota.
There is high confidence in lowered ceilings in the MVFR to IFR range after 06Z at all sites. This is forecast to last through at least 15Z, potentially into the afternoon hours Wednesday, although confidence is low in how long lowered ceilings linger at any TAF site during this time.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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