textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- A winter storm watch is in effect for Tuesday and Wednesday with a 70% chance for minor (advisory type) impacts to holiday travel.

- Below average temperatures arrive after Wednesday, with a more active precipitation pattern possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 958 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Quiet weather persists this evening with high clouds across the region. Limited weather impacts remain expected tonight so no major changes to this update. Light and variable winds and subfreezing temperatures remain the norm through the overnight hours.

UPDATE Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

High clouds continue across the region late this afternoon following record breaking temperatures across the region. Winds will diminish overnight with no weather impacts expected other than subfreezing temperatures.

..Synopsis

The pattern is about to become much more active with an upper low centered near the four corners region ejecting east into the mid Mississippi Valley as the southeast CONUS ridge continues to appear weaker and less amplified by the day. As this happens a northern stream wave (currently still offshore the PNW) will track east across the rockies sliding slightly south across the northern plains as it becomes negatively tilted and deepens over Minnesota and the upper great lakes. A slightly less complex interaction than previously forecast perhaps but crucial nonetheless to the eventual track. Behind this system much colder air follows this system as afternoon highs Wednesday only reach the lower to middle 20s. Reinforcing cold air brings temps down further as we head into Thursday and Friday, with another chance for precipitation heading into the weekend.

- Winter Storm Watch

Picture you are driving from your house in the country to your in- laws in the city, snow is falling and you can intermittently see the next shelterbelt in between surges of wind driving down visibility for 10-15 seconds at a time, roads are average for the winter season with a little slush and the tips of the the grass are still poking through the 1-2" of snow that has already accumulated on non paved surfaces giving some contrast to focus on and keep you between the ditches. Overall it feels like a slightly worse than average driving day in the region but this time you happen to be traveling for Thanksgiving and are in a slight rush because you dont want to spend more time at the in- laws than you have to so you're already running a tad late. If that sounds like a bad day then you probably arent looking forward to Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday. If that sounds manageable then you are probably eager for this first genuine snowfall of the season.

Okay enough story telling, as this northern wave slides across our area rain will initially fall for areas south of HWY 2 with snow for northern areas and a changeover to all snow for the entire area by Tuesday evening. As winds increase on the backside of the passing low between noon on Tuesday and midnight visibility will occasionally drop to 1/2 mile mainly in open areas. A few concerns arise with amounts however given warm preceding ground temperatures, near freezing air temperatures, and a good chunk of this event occuring during daylight for most areas. All these factors combined should limit actual accumulations especially on paved surfaces initially. If 4-6 falls maybe expect 2-4" to actually stick. Knowing that tidbit this will be a heavy wet snow so even those couple inches still be less than fun to shovel. As the low continues to inflect in southern Minnesota Tuesday night deformation on the NW side of the low should promote some mesoscale banding (not being well resolved by models) in north central Minnesota with heavier snow rates of > 1"/hr having the highest likelihood of reaching the typical 6" threshold for warning impacts for areas from Mahnomen to Park Rapids and Bemidji eastward into the arrowhead. Overall the current Winter Storm Watch in effect more so as an advanced messaging tool for poor holiday travel rather than a slam dunk downstream upgrade to warning for snowfall. Expect numerous counties currently in the watch to receive less than 6" of snow (sans the area mentioned above) and to only be upgraded to an advisory.

- Colder weather on the way

Looking into Thursday and Friday, much colder temperatures are expected as highs struggle to reach the low 20s on Thursday. Several reinforcing surges of cold air are expected through the end of the week, along with a chance for additional snowfall as we head into the weekend. At this time, guidance is showing a large range of potential solutions, with generally low confidence in a single scenario.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Aviation impacts will be limited for the TAF period unless the storm system to the west approaches faster than the majority of ensemble guidance. Winds will generally remain below 10 knots alongside VFR conditions for the TAF period. Clearing can be expected through the overnight and morning hours before a storm system approaches from west to east. Ceilings will fall along with this and is expected to eventually become MVFR to IFR, however timing pegs this to after midnight tomorrow. DVL may see MVFR to IFR conditions prior to the end of the TAF period, however most guidance keeps it west. Should it arise at DVL (or even further east), then expect snow to accompany it with visibilities likely dropping to IFR and LIFR at times.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for NDZ016-027>030-038-039-049-052-053. Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054. MN...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for MNZ001>003-006>009-013>017-022>024-027>032.