textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rainfall overspreads the region this afternoon through tonight.

- The season's first summer-like temperatures are forecast next week starting Memorial Day Monday.

..Synopsis

Upper troughing is influence our region's weather today and tomorrow. This is bringing widespread rainfall this afternoon through tonight, along with lingering drizzle behind the rainfall into Saturday morning and perhaps afternoon (especially within Minnesota). General amounts are expected to be around half an inch, with some seeing around 1 inch (40% chance in portions of eastern North Dakota). Areas like northeast North Dakota may see very little in terms of amounts, less than a third of an inch.

As the upper trough and accompanying steady rainfall exits our region, stout upper ridging builds into the Northern Plains and central Canada. This will introduce the year's first stint of summer-like temperatures in the 80s and 90s through much of the week. These temperatures start Memorial Day this Monday.

Gusty winds, dry air, and hot temperatures may contribute to fire weather concerns Tuesday, although confidence is low in how gusty winds will get, as well as susceptibility of fuels to rapid fire spread given recent rainfall and green-up of vegetation.

With the building heat, instability will also be increased within the Northern Plains. However, there is deft in low level moisture as well as lack of more organized forcing for ascent to keep potential thunderstorm chances low. Should thunderstorms form, they may be strong to perhaps low end severe with small hail and gusty winds as main potential hazards in addition to lightning. Confidence is low in whether or not thunderstorms will develop, but could occur as early as Monday with a weak boundary sagging into our area from the north.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

System moving through the region will bring lowered ceilings as well as rain and drizzle lowering visibility, impacting all TAF sites. Confident MVFR to VFR ceilings are forecast at all sites. There is a 60% chance for LIFR ceilings to develop at all TAF sites after 06Z, although confidence just wasn't high enough to include this significant impact into TAFs just yet. Light rain and drizzle should push visibility in the 2SM to 4SM range, with drizzle and lowered visibility and ceilings lingering through most of the morning, likely longer into the afternoon within Minnesota. Chance for lightning is very low, less than 5%. Winds will predominately be out of the east and southeast before 06Z, turning more northwesterly after 12Z.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.