textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this evening. Hail up to 2 inches and wind gusts to 75 mph would be the primary threats.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected through early evening over forested areas in north central MN. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions may develop in these areas again Monday and Tuesday.

..Fire Weather

The primary areas of concern have been for forested areas of north central MN (Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Hubbard Counties) where drier fuels have increased vigilance from fire partners. There are indications that the continued dry weather is beginning to cure grasslands areas of ND and we'll be monitoring southeast ND in particular for the potential for fuels to become critical if rains do not alleviate conditions over the next 24hr.

Due to higher Td values in our area RH values have remain 38-45% despite higher temperatures this afternoon. Those RH values, combined with breezy conditions in place (gusts to 20 mph) and dry fuels have still resulted in near critical fire weather conditions in the areas of concern in north central MN. RH values will tend to be much more variable in the post frontal air mass Monday, especially with increasing cloud cover in the north, resulting in a large spread in potential RH values north to south (60% North to 35% south). It will be much windier Monday with west then northwest gusts 35 to 40 mph (highest in the Red River Valley and eastern ND). Due to the dry fuels and winds, near critical fire weather conditions are still anticipated for the areas of concern in MN.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be much milder, however Tds will be lower as well, and RH values of 35 to 45% are expected across the region (lowest towards central/southeast ND). Winds may not be as high as on Monday, however gust 25 to 30 mph could be expected in areas of concern in MN and we'll be monitoring for near critical to critical fire weather conditions day.

Due to the building ridge/increasing temperatures, without new rainfall alleviating fuels concerns we may continue to see near critical to critical fire weather conditions continue into next weekend and the areas of impact may begin to extend into parts of the Red River Valley and eastern ND.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail this afternoon, with a chance for thunderstorms this evening and during the early overnight period. South to southwest winds continue at 10-15 knots with gusts ranging from 25-30 knots. Scattered thunderstorms are still expected this evening; however, guidance remains uncertain at this time due to model variation in both timing and placement. If thunderstorms are able to form, impacts could include damaging wind gusts, and large hail. These storms will form along and ahead of a cold front, with near-surface smoke following the cold front late tonight into Monday morning. Started a mention of smoke at KDVL, which may be added to additional sites as the front progresses.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.