textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms both late Sunday night, with a 2 of 5 risk on Monday. The main hazards will be gusty winds and hail, with a few tornadoes possible Monday.

- There is potential for near critical fire weather conditions Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Clear skies prevail across much of the area this morning, with the exception of a few mid level clouds along the International Border. Temperatures are in the 50s to near 60 degrees with light and variable winds. Overall, the forecast remains on track this morning.

..Severe potential late Sunday and Monday

With the approach of a stout upper trough from west to east, synoptic forcing aloft increases as does increasing wind energy. This will also help return low level moisture into our area - however, the degree of which remains uncertain. Additionally, there a tongue of steep lapse rates aloft overspreading the warm sector during this time. As this warm sector noses into the region, elevated robust thunderstorms are expected late Sunday, of which may impact our area. Should this occur, storms may be severe with large hail the main hazard. This activity could linger Sunday overnight into Monday morning.

During the day Monday, majority of ensemble guidance swings a cold front through our area, providing focus for ascent and sparking thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty in strength of capping, although this doesn't appear to be an "unbreakable" cap, especially when considering the degree of forcing for ascent that could erode/break through capping inversion.

While kinematic parameter spacing looks to be on the stronger side (mean bulk shear within ensembles is around 50kt), instability is a bit more questionable. While antecedent air mass ahead of the warm sector is rather devoid of rich moisture, there may be enough return and pooling ahead of the approaching front to allow for at least a narrow corridor of rich low level moisture aiding in instability and overall low level buoyancy.

Ultimately, this still allows for the potential of all hazards considering discrete storm mode still remains possible. AI / ML guidance like StormNet supports this. However, orientation of the cold front and upper trough axis may not support discrete storm mode. Thus, storm mode and its influence to dictate dominant hazards still remains questionable.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northeast MN, with periods of smoke moving through the region aloft (generally above 15kft agl).

Weak high pressure is currently in place and light and highly variable winds under 10kt are expected initially over most of eastern ND/northwest MN. Low pressure building to the west will eventually allow for increasing southeast winds west to east across the region late this afternoon through tonight, with winds 12kt or higher expected at all locations by Sunday morning (after 12kt). Higher gusts 20kt+ are expected as gradient increases Sunday and the chance for 30kt+ gusts increases after the current TAF period (Sunday afternoon).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.