textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds this afternoon with a few gusts exceeding 45mph. Wind Advisory in effect through 7pm.

- Rain wrapping up this evening with drier weather through the next several days.

..Synopsis

The current shortwave bringing our rain will work off to the northeast over the next 24 hours with conditions drying out this afternoon across eastern North Dakota and by midnight for the Minnesota counties. In other news moderate pressure rises and a tightened PGF on the northwest side of the low will contribute to increased winds across the Valley and southeast North Dakota this afternoon (Wind Advisory in effect until 7pm) with gusts up to 45 mph. Beyond today zonal flow tomorrow becomes northwest by Wednesday evening with this lasting through the workweek as highs stay 45-55 degrees through Thursday. Warming up Friday onwards with highs in the 60s for most areas as thermal riding creeps overhead. Various low amplitude shortwaves will move through the northwest flow over the next week but our confidence in timing/location of a wetting (>0.10") rain is low.

- Today

Drying profiles along and north of HWY 2 are leading to diminishing radar returns with a surge of moisture in west central Minnesota leading to increasing coverage of showers with another tenth to quarter inch through midnight from Fargo to Baudette and points south bringing events totals widely above 1" in areas that currently fall into "abnormally dry" on the drought monitor classification. Definitely a rain that falls into the classic midwest "we needed this" category. Winds as stated above will be dying off around sunset tonight with a few gusts of 40-45 mph still expected, though looking to be less widespread than previously thought given a southern MN low around 995mb rather than 990mb as forecasted yesterday resulting in a weaker surface PGF.

- Rest of the week

Zonal flow tomorrow will usher in much clearer skies, though it will also bring below average temps which stay in place through the workweek. Average highs for the period are around 60 so about 5-10 degrees below average for most would be the expectation. As we near the weekend thermal ridging finally moves east off the rockies bring a slightly warmer mid level airmass and pushing highs into the upper 50s and 60s. During this time ensemble clusters show a number of low amplitude shortwaves that could bring some more showers but any given cluster never shows a higher than 30% chance for a tenth of an inch or more. This slightly raises confidence in a mostly inactive period but things are certain to change as is the norm in the world of weather. The HDWI also fails to ever get above the 75th percentile despite daily MinRH of 30 to 40 percent. Would be surprised at the very least if there isnt a day of elevated fire weather concerns over the next seven days... just not sure where or when.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Widespread MVFR to IFR this afternoon with improvement to mostly VFR by 7pm with BJI the exception as MVFR conditions linger until around 9-10pm. Winds an equal concern through the afternoon as 30kt gusts will be prevalent for most sites until the 23z to 02z timeframe. This is just a rough estimate and timing may fall outside this window for a given site but that where confidence is for now at least. Linger rain ending in the next few hours for all sites but visibility reductions are already negligible so minimal concern from this. VFR for all sites with a steady 10-15kt N/NNW wind by midnight onwards.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007- 029.