textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures thru next Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Sunny skies and southerly winds have brought warmer air into the region and warmed readings up into the 60s from the chilly start this morning. A shortwave trough moving through Manitoba off into Ontario will help push a surface trough and cold front down into the region tonight and tomorrow. Weak surface high pressure build in behind the front and temperatures Sunday night should get down into the 30s in many areas, so may have to watch for some spots to get down to the freezing mark as the HREF has some 20 to 40 percent probabilities of that reading in our north and west. Temperatures will recover quickly and remain well above seasonal values as southwesterly flow aloft gives way to zonal flow briefly then a building ridge by mid-week. Southwesterly flow aloft into next Friday and Saturday, with most of the ensemble members showing a trough coming out although there are of course differences in the exact track of the surface low. ECWMF EFI still showing a signal for above normal temperatures, so any precipitation should remain all rain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN. A west-southwest orientated LLJ (35-45kt) is currently moving across the region bringing the potential for low level wind shear through the early morning hours Sunday, before the LLJ shifts east of the region (between 10-12Z). Surface winds may remain breezy until a surface trough begins to migrate east through the early morning hours allowing the surface gradient to relax and winds to finally drop below 12kt for a period. A weak cold front moves into the region Sunday with west-northwest winds 12-15kt developing behind this front for some locations (mainly northeast ND). The gradient and mixed layer winds aren't particularly impressive and winds should drop back below 12kt by late afternoon/early evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.