textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across eastern North Dakota, with near critical fire weather conditions across northwest and west central Minnesota.

- There is a chance for strong wind gusts 45 mph or higher Tuesday and Thursday as several fronts pass through the region during the daytime and evening periods.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected over parts of the region each afternoon Tuesday through Friday. There is a 30% chance for Red Flag Conditions during these periods.

UPDATE

Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

WInds have been increasing and based on current Td/RH trends as temperatures are increasing, RH values should fall to the 20-25% range for at least 2-3hr this afternoon while winds are increasing. Considering the strong winds that will be arriving (gusts around 40 mph by late afternoon) and wind shift to the west-northwest early this evening, dangerous fire weather conditions are likely in our ND counties. Considering those trends I issued a Red Flag Warning for all of our ND counties (Devils Lake Basin/eastern ND).

There is still a window where Red Flag conditions may develop in the immediate RRV of MN (Norman to Wilkin) and this will be monitored, however timing of winds aloft/lowest RH (around or less than 25%) may not line up. There is still a 30% chance for warning impacts in those parts of west central MN.

UPDATE Issued at 911 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Morning temperatures have recovered well into the 40s for most locations (already lower 50s in far southeast ND). The frost/freeze headlines were allowed to expire as scheduled.

UPDATE Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Coordination with neighboring offices yielded near critical fire weather messaging for eastern ND and northwest and west central MN this afternoon and early evening. From the looks of RH values and past few days did not change what the evening shift had for dew pts, which mixed in some lower HRRR values. Net result was lower RH values in the 20 to 25 percent in lower wind areas (MN trees) to 24 to 28 percent elsewhere. All areas borderline red flag. Coordination yielded near critical for all areas of the fcst area. South winds today look to be sustained 23-25 mph and gusts near 40 mph in the valley, just shy of advisory levels.

..Fire weather impacts this week

The inherent uncertainty with the periods of strong wind/frontal passages also results in increased uncertainty on timing/location of lowest RH values in relation to the timing of stronger winds that could result in critical fire weather conditions/Red Flag Conditions. Much drier mixed layer Tds are initially in place through Monday, however as the front approaches mixed layer Tds are shown to increase near the prefrontal trough. There is still a window in our far east/north central MN counties where RH values may fall to 25% or less, however this is ahead of the stronger mixed layer winds. Near critical fire weather conditions appear more likely at this point Monday afternoon for those counties. RH values become much less certain through the week (especially towards the end of the week) as deeper moisture return favors increased mixed layer Tds (even if there is deeper mixing), only offset by the potential for higher temperatures in the 70s and 80s (outside signal for values near 90 in the souther RRV Thursday). As we get closer to the periods when shorter range guidance starts better resolving smaller scale features/frontal timing we should be able to get a better handle on periods when Red Flag conditions may occur.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through at least 06Z across eastern ND and northwest MN, with CU and scattered high based showers (very low coverage lightning activity) this evening/early overnight. The best chance for shower/isolated thunderstorms will be near the US/Canada border and in north central MN later tonight. A cold front will result in shifting winds from the south to the west then northwest through the night, with gusts 30kt+ expected late this afternoon/early evening and again after sunrise Tuesday. A period of MVFR stratus is shown to arrive out of Canada late tonight over northwest MN, with impacts at KTVF and KBJI.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...None.