textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms today.

- Additional chances for strong thunderstorms exist Saturday and Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Machine learning convective outlooks and nadocast all continue to pinpoint the mid Red River valley region as an area where tornadoes will be possible later this afternoon or early evening. Much depends on where the weak suface low and front is located. And this will depend on how far north the surface warm front reaches, which appears to be at least to I-94 in ND, maybe a bit farther north. South winds south of this front with more east-southeast north of it. Upper wave moving northeast will be over the northern and central RRV at 00z so timing wise, it will come through at peak heating. One thing that may occur to reduce severe chances and this is if morning storms increase in coverage and continue thru midday and clouds reduce suface heating. Those details are not yet known.

UPDATE Issued at 1005 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Latest 00Z high resolution guidance still reveals multiple potential scenarios regarding convection evolution tomorrow. While confidence has grown in there being severe storms within our area tomorrow, the evolution of which as well as location remain in question.

Most impactful scenario includes severe storms in northeast ND mid to late afternoon migrating east and southeast, including discrete to semi-discrete supercells. This would allow all hazards to be possible, with perhaps very large hail possible (in excess of 2 inches) along with a tornado threat. Should storms evolve into more of a line of storms, gusty winds to 70 mph and hail not exceeding 2 inches would be the main threats - with some lowered chance for line-embedded tornadoes.

There is also a potential scenario that includes early morning isolated severe storms near the tri-state area into west-central MN - of which could be elevated supercells capable of large hail. Despite forcing aloft being weak, there is some present (mainly via weak warm air advection near 700 mb). This is the main question - whether or not strong enough forcing will be present to sustain robust convection in amid very favorable hail-producing environment comprised of moderate instability and moderate to strong shear.

..Heat Friday and into the weekend

With rising heights as the upper ridge builds Friday and into the weekend, temperatures will be well above average into the weekend. The ECMWF EFI shows a strong signal for warm temps, particularly in the southern Red River Valley. Apparent temps do not get above advisory criteria unless looking at the max percentile members, but the wet bulb globe gets into the 80s and heat risk is up into the major category for portions of the southern Red River Valley and west central MN both Friday and Saturday. May not need headlines especially this far in advance, but will continue to message summer temps heading into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 718 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Intially first part of the day to see mid and high level moisture. Scattered showers and t-storms possible but at the time of TAF issuance not confident enough to add a VCTS or Prob30 to TAF for any morning activity. Question will be afternoon storm development. Felt confident to put in a prob30 for a few hours mid to late afternoon or early evening in most areas (except BJI). But per usual, uncertainity remains high in convective trends today.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.