textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Blizzard conditions will develop on Sunday across eastern North Dakota and portions of northwest Minnesota. Widespread blowing snow and very cold wind chills will make travel dangerous and potentially life-threatening for those stranded.

- Accumulating snowfall ahead of the blizzard is expected this evening and overnight. Snowfall accumulations of one to three inches.

..Sunday Blizzard

A fast moving shortwave trough at the apex of a very large ridge will travel down said ridge towards our region this evening and overnight. Ahead of the shortwave, fairly strong isentropic ascent will bring a swath of accumulating snowfall to the region. Most guidance pegs the most likely outcome as 1-3 inches, which makes sense given the broad synoptic ascent associated with this wave. Some frontogenesis does lie within the elevated warm front, however the forward propagation is normal to the long axis, so any higher rates of snowfall will be fairly quick moving and linear in nature (sweeping equal amounts of snow across the region). The timeframe for this snowfall will be beginning this evening just after sunset and lasting just after sunrise.

Winds will start to increase from the northwest on the backside of the warm air advection. Current guidance sets a range roughly between 25-35 mph sustained winds behind this front. With strong cold air advection, steep low level lapse rates, and very strong winds aloft, the expectation is for there to be frequent gusts exceeding 45 mph, possibly approaching 60 mph at times in the Red River Valley, particularly in areas most prone to northwest wind enhancement like the eastern Red River Valley. With an inch of fresh snow on the ground today plus a high likelihood (80+% chance) of at least an additional inch overnight with no melting/refreezing, blizzard conditions are expected to develop across eastern North Dakota and portions of northwest Minnesota. Dangerous whiteout conditions will develop and make travel conditions treacherous to impossible. With the high winds and cold air coming in, wind chills will likely get to 35 below, potentially pushing past 40 below at times. For this reason, anyone caught stranded may end up in life-threatening conditions, particularly in open country with limited obstruction of blowing snow.

Blizzard conditions will likely linger into the early evening with a slow improvement of visibility as winds diminish. However, sustained winds overnight will generally be in the 20-30 mph range, so continued isolated to scattered whiteout conditions is the most likely outcome for ongoing conditions into early Monday morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

MVFR for much of eastern ND already with MN sites soon to fallow suit in the next 3 hours tonight as snow moves in. Worst conditions after 12z as the cold front pushes though with snow tapering off and winds increasing to 25-35kts and gusts to 50kts. IFR conditions are more likely due to blowing snow from 12z to 00z tonight with widespread sub 1SM vis and occasional to frequent 1/4SM at terminals.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Blizzard Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-054. Cold Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Blizzard Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for NDZ038-039- 049-052-053. MN...Blizzard Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for MNZ001-004- 007. Cold Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040. Blizzard Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for MNZ002-003- 005-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032.