textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds Friday into Saturday.

..Winter travel impact potential Friday into Saturday

As stronger synoptic ascent and WAA in the 850-700 MB layer overspread our CWA several periods of light to moderate precipitation (mainly rain) should move west to east through our CWA Friday into Saturday morning. All ensembles at this time support the main closed 700MB low tracking over Manitoba, placing the potential for stronger frontogensis to the north, while most precipitation in our CWA will be driven by WAA or broader deformation on the back side of the 500MB low. While there is overall strong consensus on the larger scale track, smaller scale features at the surface (low track/frontal timing) still play a role in the potential for winter impacts. A larger number of ensemble members generally keep temperature profiles in place supportive of liquid with surface temperatures above freezing outside of the overnight/morning periods for most locations (limiting potential for accumulating snow or a wintry mix). In this scenario (80% chance) most areas would see little to no accumulation (better chance for 1" in the Devils Lake Basin).

There is still a subset of members (20%) that support more organized deformation while temperature profiles are cold enough for all snow and have better chance for snow totals greater than 3". As ground temperatures are warmer, most of this will tend to be on grassy/elevated surfaces that may limit impacts outside of snow rates/wind reducing visibility where moderate/brief heavy snow would track.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR stratus is slowly clearing, and should end at KFAR, KGFK and KTVF in the next few hours. Overnight, the main aviation concern is fog. Fog could form at any terminal after 5z, but it looks most likely at KBJI, where several hours of LIFR were added to the TAF late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Additional TEMPOs were added at KFAR and KTVF to highlight when the chance of fog is greatest. Finally, There is more uncertainty in fog development at KGFK. Therefore, I did not add in any IFR/LIFR, but a prevailing MVFR group was included for the period when fog, if it does develop, would be most likely. Fog will clear by late Wednesday morning, with VFR through the end of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.