textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Risk for multiple rounds of severe storms starting late Saturday through at least Monday. All hazards are possible.

- Potential for heat impacts next week, including the Fourth of July weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The line of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to move eastward this morning. Wind gusts ranging from 30-40 mph have been seen through much of the night, but have slowly trended downward over the past several hours. This activity will continue moving out of the area this morning, with a break in activity expected through late this morning. At that time, thunderstorm chances will begin to increase heading into the afternoon, which will continue into the evening. Recent guidance is showing less coverage this afternoon, but it is worth noting that run to run inconsistencies are still very large.

UPDATE Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Line of thunderstorms currently moving through central ND will enter far western portions of the Devils Lake Basin in the next hour or two. CAMs do show a slight weakening trend as the complex enters our western counties, and DCAPE goes down except in portions of southeastern ND. On the other hand, there is a 850mb jet of 40 kts to feed the storms. There should at least be a decent chance for some continued severe potential as the line enters the Devils Lake Basin, but think there should be weakening as it moves into the Red River Valley around 3 to 5 am.

UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Warm air advection along with a weak shortwave embedded in the southwesterly flow continues to bring showers and some thunderstorms to the region. Instability is limited over our area, and the strongest convection remains out close to the MT border. However, with instability expected to increase over our western counties and the storms moving in later tonight, there remains some risk for damaging winds, mostly in the midnight and after period. There is some question on how widespread winds will be as the thunderstorm complex moves east, but risk for isolated thunderstorms remains tonight.

..Heat this Week

In addition to thunderstorms, heat will be a concern heading into the upcoming week. Monday will likely bring the highest heat indicies as dew points in the 70s are advected into much of the FA. We cool down a bit on Tuesday, but persistent southerly flow will keep temperatures and dew points elevated all week, slowly rising each day from Wednesday through Saturday. at this time, ares in southeastern ND and west central MN have the highest chance of seeing heat advisory level impacts (heat indicies of 100 degrees or higher). It should be noted that even if afternoon temperatures barely reach criteria, overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s will likely provide very little relief from the heat.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions prevail this morning at all TAF sites outside of shower activity. During periods of rain and thunderstorms, brief IFR conditions have been reported, primarily due to low visibility during heavy rain. This morning, KBJI and KTVF still have showers in the vicinity, with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. There will be a break in activity late this morning, with additional showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening. The chance for severe thunderstorms remains in the forecast from early afternoon through late this evening. Winds remain out of the south to southeast at 15-20 knots, with gusts upwards of 30 knots through late this evening, when gusts taper off and winds diminish slowly.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.