textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for strong to severe storms Monday.

- Seasonable weather with scattered rain chances Tonight/Friday and early next week.

..Synopsis

NW flow continues to become more amplified the next few days with increasing ridging across the Rockies and high plains. Troughing off the Pacific coast looks to move ashore Saturday and flatten the ridge bringing increasing precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday. Ridging then returns for the mid and late week. Could see some strong to severe storms on Monday/Tuesday though there are still a some unknowns so wont speculate into the potential too much. Overall seasonal weather with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day and peak daily heat indices generally 80-85 making a it a comfortable stretch of late summer weather.

- Today

A shortwave is quickly traversing the northwest flow aloft with cold air advection behind yesterdays wave helping to steepen mid level lapse rates. Overall pretty skinny instability but reminiscent of a springtime northwest flow with a deepening CU field and the expectation for afternoon showers/thunderstorms once we reach the convective temp in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Not likley to see high rainfall totals but a few locations in northwest Minnesota could squeak out a quick tenth. Severe weather is not expected with only 20-25kts of eff shear and 1000 j/kg of ML CAPE but some small hail is not out of the question.

- Rain/Severe Chances Early Next Week

Similar to yesterday AI ensembles agree strongly on the track of the wave through the canadian provinces on Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning with the Euro still the more progressive solution but the GFS is catching up as expected. Overall the expectation is for lee troughing east of the rockies with MUCPAE in excess of 2000 j/kg to support at least a wind and hail threat on Monday afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas. This does appear to evolve into a closed 500mb wave with closed isotherms as well within the low meeting the definition of a cold core low supporting a localized tornado threat in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Monday but given the track this appears to stay well north of our area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR this afternoon with some cumulus across the region. Skies may occasionally go broken but mainly SCT050 or higher. Winds gradually turning NW to N this afternoon at 10-15kts and gusts 15-20kts. A few rain showers possible this afternoon for BJI but chances below 30% preclude the addition of a prob30. Winds once again die off this evening and overnight with the potential for more fog but slightly stronger winds than last night should limit coverage a bit more. Winds back to 10kts of so from the north by 18z tomorrow.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.