textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for isolated to scattered severe storms Sunday with a primary wind threat.

- Strong winds across northeast North Dakota Monday afternoon may lead to wind headlines being warranted.

- Scattered but low confidence chances for severe through the later half of the week.

..Synopsis

Relatively low amplitude longwave ridging will allow a series of shortwaves to permeate east along the top of the ridge through early this coming work week bringing above average moisture to the region for the 6-10 day period. With these shortwaves will come severe chances (mainly Sunday) in the form of wind and hail. Beyond these threats the rains will certainly be welcome and beneficial to easing the worsening drought though is unfortunately too little, too late for many crops. It may even put a short stop to the ongoing wheat/sugar beet harvest. Dry/hot ridging does briefly return for the middle of next week before we transition to prevailing SW flow aloft indicating another wet period, though uncertainty remains on any amounts or associated hazards (flooding/severe) for the late week.

- Today

Trends have largely backed off on the severe potential for tonight across south central North Dakota. Still could see some hailers across areas from Bismarck to Jamestown but most severe activity looks to stay in South Dakota tonight. Therefore wont dive into the forecast too much for tonight given the lessening threat for impacts.

- Sunday

CAMS along with machine learning guidance continues to support a severe risk across North Dakota and possibly Minnesota on Sunday. As an increasingly negatively tilted upper low ejects east from interior Washington state into southeast Alberta by 00z Monday a 60kt+ 500mb maxima will be moving across the MT/ND border providing the forcing to initiate storms along the higher terrain. Increasing flow at 850-700mb of 30-45kts will support elongating low level shear and MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg should provide plenty of instability to sustain and east moving MCS. Weak LCL-EL shear should limit cold pool growth along with a relative lack of dry air through the profile given PWATs exceeding 1.6". Overall think winds of 60- 70mph are entirely likely with an outside chance at a few sig gusts over 75mph. While wind is an obvious threat with the potential MCS tornadoes also cannot be ruled out, however SBCIN approaching -100 j/kg and 0-3km shear of only 20-25kts indicate mesovortex potential could be limited. Hail, unless MCS is not the dominant mode, should be limited to quarter size at most once the complex gets into our area. Given the MUCAPE pool generally remaining along and south of HWY 200 would think the highest threat for sig winds will remain more along the I94 corridor but cannot rule out severe (60+ mph) winds all the way to the intl border.

- Monday Wind

As the upper low lifts northeast through Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg strong W/SW winds will wrap around the southern periphery of the low. EFI does pick up on this nicely with some shading over the 0.8 threshold that seems to correspond nicely with wind advisory criteria for us historically, anecdotally speaking. Given a modest BL depth to around 800mb and flow within that layer of 30-40kts and wind advisory criteria with sustained speeds over 25kts or gusts over 39kts will be in play. Given RH that seems to want to bottom out in the mid to upper 30s fire weather conditions do not currently seem to be of particular concern but may be something to dive into a later time.

- Work Week

Near zonal to southwesterly flow aloft continues into next week. Temps look to be above average with several chances for precipitation as weak shortwaves come through. Machine learning does indicate increased chances for severe weather but with a large spatial spread day to day lowering the confidence at the this time in impacts. Overall seasonal moisture and increased shear from the passing shortwaves amid SW flow do conceptually support the risk for strong to severe storms mainly Thursday into Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Widespread stratus is currently lifting from MVFR to VFR for the afternoon with BJI the mostly likely to remain MVFR for a few hours still. Winds through the period are light at 5-10kts with increasing speeds over 10kts after 15z tomorrow morning. Could see some showers for FAR and DVL overnight but remaining VFR. Chance for some fog overnight especially where winds go calm but confidence in location is uncertain. Best chance will likely be TVF and BJI but will AMD the taf later when confidence increases.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.