textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms in eastern North Dakota into Minnesota tonight into Thursday. No severe weather anticipated with the main impacts being lightning and brief rain.

..Showers and thunderstorms tonight and Thursday

Many of the model solutions have scattered shower and a few thunderstorms entering our northern counties late this afternoon and into the evening as the shortwave currently over southeastern Saskatchewan digs down. Some of the models such as the NAM and the RAP have a narrow band of instability with the system. The surface based CAPE is only in the 500-1000 J/kg range, but some of the CAMs have MU CAPE a bit above 1000 J/kg. Deep layer shear is around 25 to 30 kts, but HREF probabilities of any strong updrafts are minimal, and model soundings this evening are not very impressive. Could see some lightning as HREF has 30 to 50 percent probabilities with this shortwave, along with brief downpours.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Cloud bases will remain above 5,000ft AGL throughout the TAF period. A few showers and weak thunderstorms are passing through the region, and will impact KTVF and KBJI early in the TAF period. Shower and thunderstorm activity will linger longest into the morning at KBJI. Elsewhere, showers and storms will end, with clouds slowly breaking up. As a cold front passes from northwest to southeast overnight into Thursday morning, winds will increase out of the northwest. A period of gusts between 20 and 25 knots is forecasted during the afternoon hours. In addition, afternoon cumulus will also develop, with bases around 5,000ft AGL. There may be a several hour period that a ceiling of low end VFR does develop in the afternoon, especially at northern terminals.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.