textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for 0.50 inch or more of rain is over 70 percent in the far southeast forecast area in Grant county MN, with chance for 1 inch or more 20 percent in that area. Much lighter rainfall farther north.

UPDATE

Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

06z data suggests similar thoughts from earlier this evening in that north edge of rain will make it into Fargo-Detroit Lakes- Park Rapids this morning and early afternoon before shifting out. Light rain though with amounts under 0.10 inch. From observations in South Dakota heaviest rainfall of 0.50 inch or more is from Watertown to south of Aberdeen then to about I-90, with pocket of 2+ inches Huron area. Lighter amounts under 0.25 inch along ND border. This goes along with thoughts of over 0.50 inch of rain a good bet (over 70 pct chance) in Elbow Lake/Grant county MN area, but that percentage of 0.50 inch or more dropping quickly northward. Also watching showers increase in coverage from Estevan SK east along the border to Rolla and its moving northeast. I do think these showers today will stay in Manitoba, but graze the ND/MB border.

..Rain chances Friday

Guidance continues to keep the lion's share of soaking rainfall south of our area Friday. There is still a subset of guidance that eeks the northern fringes of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall into locations near the SD border/tri-state area into west-central MN. Should this occur, rainfall totals may reach into the 0.8-1.5 inch range. There is around a 30% chance for this to occur. Otherwise, most likely amounts are expected to remain less than 0.5 inches. The chance for 3 or more inches remains very low/nill at this time.

Timing for rainfall in southeast ND into west-central MN begins Friday morning around sunrise, lingering through early to mid afternoon.

A separate area of showers are expected to develop in portions of north-central ND into SK/MB Friday. This could spread into northeast ND and the far northern Red River Valley. Rain amounts will be light, only up to a few hundredths, if this occurs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

There will be a northward expanse of low level moisture today into tonight with forecast ceilings into the MVFR range for all TAF sites tonight, in some cases such as Fargo this afternoon. Risk of IFR ceilings in a few spots, such as Bemidji tonight. Winds today east-southeast turning a bit more southeast increasing 8-15 kts today, few gusts 20 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.