textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat impacts will continue over parts of the region through much of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

While the front will be passing through the central RRV through midday Tuesday, the main air mass shift and potential increase in cloud cover will remain mainly in the Northern RRV and Devils Lake Basin. Based on NBM 5.2 which corrects for the warmer bias we have seen from previous days, the the immediate RRV in the Grand Forks metro and locations south of Highway 2 to Highway 200 in line for Heat indicies in the 97-100F range and Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures and Heat Risk within the extreme categories Tuesday afternoon and early evening. Considering the limited recovery tonight/early Tuesday I went ahead and extended The Extreme Heat Warning through 10pm Tuesday for those counties in ND/MN matching up with the timing with the counties to the south. It still looks like there will be more definite improvement north and west of the counties in the warning Tuesday.

UPDATE Issued at 924 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The Red Flag Warning Expired as scheduled with RH improving. In the post frontal air mass Tuesday BL Tds will be falling and RH values around or lower than 30% are likely. Winds will be much less Tuesday, and even peak mixed layer winds are generally around 10 mph or less on model soundings. This lowers the probably for RFW conditions Tuesday afternoon/evening in our area. However, due to the lower RH values and hot temperatures in the parts of our NW MN counties where fuels are a concern, near critical fire weather conditions are still expected. A Special Weather Statement was issued for the areas of concern.

..Limited Relief from Heat This Week

As the H5 ridge flattens, temperatures along and north of the Highway 200 corridor will become slightly cooler, with highs expected to be in the 80s on Wednesday. Further south, temps remain in the middle to upper 90s on Wednesday, with upper 90s to near 100 degrees expected once more on Thursday. Heat index values will once more approach or exceed 100 degrees for the hottest locations south of Highway 200. Another surge of cooler air brings temps down heading into Friday, with area wide highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s expected through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN. The main aviation impact will be low level wind shear (35-40kt) during the early TAF period as a low level jet moves across the region. Southerly winds decrease as weak low pressure followed by a frontal zone moves through the region from the northwest to southeast through Tuesday. Winds eventually shift to the northeast then north behind this front with gusts during the daytime period over parts of eastern ND around 20kt. Wind gusts around 30kt are not expected. There is a low chance for a few thunderstorms to develop near the US/Canada border, however the probability for impacts at TAF sits is low (less than 20%).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ027>030- 038-039-049-052-053. Extreme Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026-054. MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>003- 015>017-022>024-027>032-040. Extreme Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ004>009-013- 014.