textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late tonight through the morning hours Monday, for large hail and damaging winds.

- There is a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail, with the potential for a few tornadoes.

..Severe Weather Risk Monday Afternoon/Evening

CAMs continue to show ongoing elevated shower and thunderstorms through Monday afternoon as the main trough moves across the region. If smoke aloft is too thick or mid level clouds/elevated storms linger, severe threats may remain isolated/marginal in nature with stronger capping in place. However where there is more clearing, CAMs are showing a signal for EML development ahead of the front with strongly sheared turning hodographs supportive of supercells. There should be enough forcing with the trough and front in that scenario for the CAP to be eroded near the frontal zone, and a more organized severe threat in the afternoon/evening. CAMs do show the stronger UH tracks/supercell type signal with some showing bowing type MCS clusters and this reflects the higher level scenario that is conditional on better surface based destabilization.

AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Showers will be spreading west to east from eastern North Dakota into Minnesota starting at 12z and becoming more widespread by 18z. Thunderstorms after 21z mainly impacting Valley and Minnesota sites. Winds not as strong as Sunday with gusts (not including thunderstorms) up to 25 knots. Ceilings do look to now stay VFR with MVFR only possible during periods of heavier rain and even then it is uncertain. Overall a bit of a gross day but outside of UND helicopters no thresholds to restrict flying are being hit.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.