textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Blowing snow is expected on Tuesday. There will be a 1 to 2 hour period of blizzard like conditions in northeast North Dakota into the central/northern Red River Valley during the morning hours, with improvement into the late morning and afternoon.

..System Tonight into Tuesday

A quick hitting shortwave will propagate through tonight into Tuesday. With the surface low tracking near the International Border, a warm front will swing through after midnight, followed quickly a few hours later by a cold front. As the warm front passes through, isentropic lift will aid in forming a narrow band of precipitation across most of the FA. With a warm nose aloft, this brief period of precipitation will fall as a wintry mix, especially for locations along and south of US Highway 2. Any impacts from freezing rain look to be limited by the duration of this precipitation, along with temperatures hovering near freezing during/after the time it falls. Further north near the International Border, light snow will be the predominate precipitation type. Snowfall accumulations look to be light, with a Trace to 2 inches generally along and north of US Highway 2.

Behind the cold front, strong cold air advection will overspread much of the FA during the early morning hours. A tight pressure gradient, and 6 hour pressure rises of 10 mb or so should aid in a brief but strong period of winds. With a blowable snowpack, the expectation is that widespread visibility reductions will occur area wide late tonight into Tuesday. During the brief period of strongest winds, significant blowing snow will bring a brief (1-2 hour period) of Blizzard like conditions, which unfortunately looks to coincide with the morning commute. The most likely areas to experience this are along and north of Highway 200 from the Red River Valley and points to the west. While these lowest visibilities will be of a short duration, impacts may be higher due to the time of day they are forecasted to occur.

After the morning hours, the pressure gradient loosens fairly quickly and CAA is weak to non existent by afternoon. There will likely be some falling snow that lingers all day. However with decreasing winds and temperatures still above zero, there are questions around how long visibility reductions of a half mile or so will last. That leaves a very simple bottom line: the worst conditions with blizzard type visibility will occur during the morning commute, with continued poor but improved visibility throughout much of the late morning and afternoon hours.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions initially prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN early in the TAF period, however flight conditions should diminish in the 10-15Z period as a low pressure system and strong front arrive. This system brings increasing precipitation chances after 08Z along and north of Highway 2 with the potential for a wintry mix before transitioning to lighter snow. Accumulating snow chances are highest north and northeast of KTVF towards the US/Canada border through Tuesday morning.

A low level jet precedes the arrival of the strong cold front resulting in a period of low level wind shear, followed by southerly winds shifting to the northwest and increasing. These winds should result in blowing snow, with the best chance for a brief period of LIFR visibility with the immediate front in northeast ND and west to KTVF in MN. Confidence in duration/severity of blowing snow impacts is lower elsewhere. Regardless of visibility impacts MVFR ceilings are likley through Tuesday afternoon, with a period of IFR ceilings at KBJI. There should be an improving trend late afternoon and evening, though some pockets of MVFR stratocumulus may linger in MN through Tuesday evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ001-002-004-005-007-008-013>015-022.