textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures vary across the region for the coming week with highs ranging from 30s (north) to 50s and 60s (south)

- Chances for some rain/snow Wednesday into Thursday

- Drying fuels this week may intermittently support low end fire danger.

..Synopsis

With only subtle southern California and northern Baja ridging to the west and low amplitude troughing permeating across a 60-70kt northern stream jet we remain in a relatively quiet and low amplitude CONUS synoptic pattern through the next few days. Temperatures will be highly variable across the region through the coming week as we remain situated along the baroclinic zone with highs north of the boundary in the 30s then 40s to 50s south of it. A cold front associated with a system passing to the north in Manitoba and Ontario will bring cooler temps farther south for Thursday and Friday with most areas staying in the 30s and low 40s but otherwise each day this week looks to have a shot at 50s in the south. This may lead to marginally increased fire concerns but as things are still drying out those concerns remain relatively low.

- Mid-week precip

Clusters do show some modest track uncertainty Wednesday with a system along the Canadian border. The clusters with a more southerly track bring up to 1" of snow along the Canadian border and a dusting as far south as HWY 2 but northern solutions barely bring a dusting across the border. Overall not an impactful difference that would change most decisions being made but may bring sorrow to those hoping to see winter leave.

- Drying Fuels

With highs regularly in the 40s and 50s this week across the south and Min RH accordingly dropping into the 20s and 30s percent range there may occasionally be some low end fire danger for areas that have already lost their snowpack and are really starting to dry out. ERC across southeast North Dakota is forecast to reach near the 80th percentile by the end of the week with HDWI showing periods reaching the 90th percentile as well. It remains uncertain if winds and RH will line up to yield increased fire concerns but wanted to at least bring to attention the drying fuels and overall warmer pattern this week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

MVFR to VFR out there currently with increasingly deep mixing this afternoon lifting through who remain in MVFR into VFR and clouds eventually clearing this evening. A few stray snow showers have been noted so far this morning with TVF the main victim. Looking at soundings these could continue through 23z but then again all sites look favorable for this activity to be ongoing yet only TVF is reporting anything so that about sums up my confidence with the showers. Winds turning more southerly tomorrow and increasing to 15-20kts by the end of the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.