textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog this morning and Thursday morning.

- There is a 20% chance for advisory impacts from a wintry mix Thursday night into Friday.

- A more active pattern may continue into next week bringing additional opportunities for winter impacts over parts of the region. Predictability in impacts remains very low beyond Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 544 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Dense fog has expanded east into Wadena, Park Rapids, Bemidji and into western Roseau county between 5 and 530 am. So expanded advisory into these areas. Will need to examine which areas where the advisory will need to be extended in time.

UPDATE Issued at 528 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Fog is the main issue this morning, then temperatures. Weak low pressure is noted in far northeast Montana and southeast Saskatchewan at 11z and this will move ESE and turn winds to the north over northeast ND this afternoon, with wind shift reaching the southern RRV late afternoon and evening. Warmer air moving into southeast ND and west central MN today and will eventually kick the fog and low clouds out but timing of that other than sometime this morning is highly uncertain. Even more uncertain will be fog and any improvement in northeast ND and far NW MN. HRRR keeps fog around into the afternoon especially near the baroclinic temperature boundary of snow vs no snowcover which likes roughly Cooperstown to Hillsboro to Ada. Much warmer tmeps south of this line and much colder temps north. 50s south and 20s north. In between could easily vary by 15 degrees in 15 miles. Will adjust or extend dense fog advisory as needed this morning, as some areas will need to see extension of dense fog adv past 14z.

UPDATE Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Areas of dense fog continue across parts of the area this evening, with visibility as low as 1/4 mile, especially west of the Red River. Dense fog advisory remains in effect through just after sunrise Wednesday.

UPDATE Issued at 731 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Patchy dense fog is forming across parts of the area, with several locations reporting 1/4 mile to 1/2 mile visibility. Dew point depressions are near zero across much of the area, with nearly calm winds. These conditions are likely to continue through the early morning before southerly winds increase as we approach sunrise. Gradual improvements are expected from west to east starting just before sunrise.

..Uncertainty Late Friday into the Weekend

As a stronger wave ejects onto the Plains within southwest flow late Friday into Saturday, uncertainty only grows. First, ensemble members disagree around the timing of the wave. A little faster, and it may interact/phase with the first wave tracking through late Thursday into Friday. If it waits a little longer, these two systems may not interact at all. Second, ensembles show disagreement in the strength of the ridge over the southeastern US. Less ridging would mean a less north track, which would lower overall impacts for our FA. Intensity of the system is also unknown, with a large part of that hinging on if there is some sort of interaction between the two waves. Overall, there remains significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of winter impacts.

Beyond Saturday, ensembles are hinting at another wave or two as the flow becomes more zonal/northwesterly. Again though - there are large differences in the location/timing of each wave. Therefore, while a more active period of weather does look to be in store, details remain slim as to how conditions will evolve at any one exact location. Check back in the coming days for further details.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 528 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Confidence is pretty high in that the low clouds and fog will clear out of Fargo, but timing to the hour is extremely uncertain. It may go from 1/4 to 4 to P6SM in short order. Timed estimated for TAFs. Bemidji too is on the edge of the fog and may well get the fog out too mid to late morning. GFK, TVF, DVL is much more uncertain as winds will turn north and colder temps will remain. It may take well into the afternoon to see much improvement then hopefully enough of a north wind to keep dense fog at bay tonight.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-039-053-054. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MNZ001>004- 007-008-013>016-022-023-027-029-030-040. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MNZ005-009- 017-024-028-031-032.