textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog, low clouds and freezing drizzle concerns this morning.

- Changes to Sunday into Sunday night as snow chances have increased and impact potential for blowing snow has increased.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Though no surface reports, radar returns moving thru DVL basin suggest risk of light freezing rain exists so did add that region to the winter wx advisory thru noon. This is occurring on south edge of wave moving thru Manitoba. Otherwise fog is socked in over the advisory area.

..Sunday

Significant changes was caught on by the 00z Sat model suite and ensembles. Upper low digging into eastern SD Sunday late and outh ahead of this will be low pressure that forms and intensifies into Wisconsin late Sunday. Numerous scenarios possible with this including 500 mb low moving east and wrapping with sfc in western Wisconsin Sunday night and giving heavy snow for parts of eastern and southern MN. Also in this scenario moisture gets wrapped back around into NW/WC MN with increased chances for more than 2 inches of snow Sunday into Sunday night. NBM shows prob of more than 2 inches of snow 06z Sun to 06z Mon 60 percent in NW MN (TVF, BJI) and 30-40 percent GFK/FAR and considerably less farther west. 925 mb winds peak Sunday evening 00z-06z with 40-45 kts...but will have 35 kts or so for mixing Sunday afternoon within the RRV and esp the MN part of the RRV. This is a relatively sudde change so will be interesting how daytime model runs handle this. Based on 00z model guidance and WPC probWSSI chances for advisory level impacts are 60 percent in NW/WC MN due to a couple inches of snow and blowing snow. The drop off quickly once west of the Red River.

Using blowing snow table major differences if only 1 inch of snow to blow vs 2 inches. 2 inches of snow to blow with sustained winds 24 kts late Sunday would put areas with those conditions into advisory range easily....vs 1 inch would not.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Majority of the area, if not all will remain in fog and low clouds thru the day, improvement hopefully in vsby starts this aftn/eve as winds turn northwest behind cold front. But until then VLIFR, LIFR, and IFR conditions.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006>008- 014>016-026>030-054. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ001>004-007-022- 027>032-040. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ001- 004>009-013>017-022>024.