textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing temperatures are forecast in the Devils Lake Basin early this morning. There is a medium to high probability of widespread freezing temperatures Friday night across much of the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 128 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

North winds remain gusty but speeds are well below advisory levels. North winds within the Red River valley at 06z were sustained 20-30 mph with gusts 35-40 at times. Cold advection a bit too weak to sustain higher values that are above the surface. So wind advisory for all areas dropped. Coord with WFO BIS.

..Freezing Temperatures

We have issued a Freeze Warning for portions of the area centered on the Devils Lake Basin tonight, where ensemble guidance and upstream observations provide high confidence in overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s F. This is supported by expected low-level cold air advection, but may be offset by lingering clouds (stratus) and winds that may not diminish until close to sunset even in those areas. Across the remainder of eastern ND and northwest and west central MN, we believe the cloud cover and winds will tend to inhibit the efficiency of cooling. Taken at face value, the 50th percentile NBM guidance suggests temperatures around 32 in parts of the MN lakes country. In contrast, MOS-based guidance (which is not bias-corrected by recent background trends) favors the temperatures staying above freezing, consistent with the expectation of cloud cover and winds limiting full cooling potential.

Medium to high probabilities for freezing temperatures exist Friday night owing to the cool post-frontal air mass and expectation of a clear sky. The official forecast calls for low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s F, lowest in parts of west central MN, which will be near a surface ridge axis the longest during the night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Winds, ceilings, and showers have evolved pretty much as expected. The main challenge for the remainder of the night will be how quickly winds diminish and how quickly ceilings lift and/or dissipate. Current satellite imagery indicates breaks in the cloud cover across portions of eastern North Dakota into Manitoba, although there are also areas of MVFR cigs across this area. General trend will be improving conditions, but timing will be more uncertain (anticipate the TAF forecast to unfold as written but not at the exact times). Light winds and clear sky on Friday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006-007-014- 015-054. MN...None.