textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Snowfall may impact travel conditions midday into afternoon over parts of eastern North Dakota, mainly west of Devils Lake and west of Fargo. The chance for advisory level impacts is 20%.

UPDATE

Issued at 615 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Did expand flurries thru early afternoon in much of the area, though clearing will work south from Winnipeg area, clearing out the stratocu at least in the far north valley. West central MN is clear but clouds moving in. Anywhere there is stratocu layer east of the upper wave can see flurries. Upper wave and snow area seems to be on track though radar returns and obs in Saskatchewan are a bit less intense than would think given strength of warm advection at 850 mb. But also this zone of enhanced lift due to warm advection is likely narrow and not captured in Saskatchewan observations due to poor coverage of automated stations. I see nothing in 06z data to suggest a reason for a significant change to messaging.

..Today snowfall

Clouds prevelent to start today over much of the area with drier 925-850 mb airmass upstream in Manitoba north of Winnipeg. Drier north wind 10 kts will occur today over most of the area and keep the snow from the southeast moving short wave more so NW into south central ND into northeast SD. Using a blend of various CAMs and HREF a narrow zone of enhanced lift aided by 850 mb warm advection is quite noticeable in the Regina-Estevan SK to Minot-Jamestown region thru early afternoon, before weakening. CAMS and HREF indicate narrow zone of potential 3+ inch of snow in that zone as well. All indications from the warm advection zone that this heavier snowfall will stay to our west....with eastern edge of snowfall today limited to DVL-FAR and west/south with Devils Lake and Fargo cities proper on the far east edge of any snow. Heavier snowfall potential is just west of the our area, with 1 inch or so of snow western Benson county to Valley City/Barnes county area. Frontogenetical forcing is present as well, but seems a bit displaced to the notheast from main 850 mb warm advection and likely snow area and also it is transient so not set over one area.

Snow chances end late today/early evening in SE ND. High pressure dropping south into S Manitoba tonight will bring drier airmass and should be mostly clear sky to northern RRV and NW MN. Lingering clouds may hold into Tuesday western and far south fcst area, with some flurries and light snow possible late tonight in central ND. This area of 850 mb moisture may well spread back east Tuesday bringing a bit of light snow or flurries.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

MVFR stratocu and flurries this morning and should see some clearing of this at least into the northern RRV and NW MN this afternoon and esp tonight. Light snow with vsby reductions may reach DVL and lesser chance Fargo today. Winds north to north- northeast 5-10 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.