textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Medium chance for soaking rainfall far southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota. Chance for 1 inch or more of rain around 30 percent.
..Rain chances Friday
Guidance continues to keep the lion's share of soaking rainfall south of our area Friday. There is still a subset of guidance that eeks the northern fringes of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall into locations near the SD border/tri-state area into west-central MN. Should this occur, rainfall totals may reach into the 0.8-1.5 inch range. There is around a 30% chance for this to occur. Otherwise, most likely amounts are expected to remain less than 0.5 inches. The chance for 3 or more inches remains very low/nill at this time.
Timing for rainfall in southeast ND into west-central MN begins Friday morning around sunrise, lingering through early to mid afternoon.
A separate area of showers are expected to develop in portions of north-central ND into SK/MB Friday. This could spread into northeast ND and the far northern Red River Valley. Rain amounts will be light, only up to a few hundredths, if this occurs.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and most of northwest MN through the early overnight. There is still a low chance for radiational fog development over parts of north central ND where winds are more likely to remain calm and brief vis reductions and potential stratus impacts could occur at KBJI before 12z (winds begin to increase and help mixing after 12Z).
A low pressure system building into the region from the southwest of our region will result in winds shifting to the southeast and increasing to around 11-15kt across the region Friday. This will also bring showers/isolated thunderstorm activity to far southeast ND and west central MN (30% chance for showers at KFAR). The increase in low level moisture will result in MVFR stratus spreading north, with the best chance for impacts at KFAR and KBJI and lower at other terminals in northeast ND and northwest MN (still a low chance for brief impacts at KDVL and KGFK).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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