textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected today, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon. Hazards could include hail up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph, especially in southeast North Dakota, southern Red River Valley, and west central Minnesota.

..Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Today

Instability across southeast North Dakota, the southern Red River Valley, and west central Minnesota will be supportive of a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Soundings confirm the presence of surface CAPE values generally just below 1000 J/Kg, but with very little shear. Dry air is in place at the surface, which supports a mention of wind gusts; however, with weak CAPE and shear, updrafts are expected to be somewhat short lived. With the taller storms, we could see just enough moisture loading to support 1 inch hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. Many storms, however, will struggle to reach severe strength.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Look for a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening at all TAF sites. MVFR conditions are expected during periodic thunderstorm activity, with otherwise VFR conditions through the period. Winds this afternoon increase out of the northwest at 15-20 knots, with periodic gusts to 25 knots.

A few storms today could become strong to severe, with hazards including 1 inch hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. Most thunderstorm activity will struggle to maintain strength; however, coverage should be sufficient to hold onto PROB30 groups through around 02Z.

Winds will shift to the northwest late this evening, then diminish during the overnight hours. Heading into Tuesday morning, winds shift back to the west, then increase to around 10-15 knots.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.