textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats.

..Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday

Severe thunderstorm coverage on Monday afternoon and evening will depend heavily on the timing of an approaching cold front. Warm air advection will be strong through much of the day across eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota; however, with remnant shower activity on Monday morning potentially lingering, this could shorten the window of potential severe weather late Monday. Looking at CAMs, there are several potential scenarios, ranging from potential splitting supercells, to elevated clusters. Model soundings are consistent with nearly straight hodographs as the front approaches, which continue to support splitting supercells and hybrid clusters. As such, a high end scenario supports supercells developing west of the Red River during the late afternoon, with hazards including wind gusts to 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. A more likely scenario would be that we have lingering convective inhibition later into the afternoon, thus delaying convection until later in the evening. This would still support wind gusts up to 70 mph, but would transition into mainly an elevated hail scenario that extends into the early overnight hours. With this later scenario, we could see isolated severe thunderstorms lingering into Tuesday morning across parts of northwest Minnesota.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Besides a few high clouds and mid level cumulus, mostly clear skies are expected through much of the afternoon and evening. Winds remain generally light, ranging from 5-12 knots, but will increase slightly overnight into Monday morning. For KDVL, low rain chances remain in the forecast overnight; however, better chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.