textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than normal temperatures through next week.

- There is the potential for a more active period towards the end of next week. Predictability is low at this time for impacts.

UPDATE

Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Flurries have been reported under the low stratus over the Devils Lake Basin and northeast ND. This correlates with where RAP/HRRR shows 925MB WAA is in place and saturation is just deep enough in this cold air mass for ice crystal growth. Based on the timing of this bubble of weak WAA flurries may continue through 12-14Z in our northwest and flurries were added to the morning forecast period. A very light dusting can't be ruled out completely, but impacts should be limited. Otherwise, forecast is on track with a general clearing trend of any lingering low stratus still favored as southerly flow increases later this afternoon and evening.

The rest of the forecast period also remains on track this week, with warmer temperatures ahead of an eventual pattern shift late in the week. There is still a signal for a more active storm track by the end of the week, but not a lot of consistency on the details (evolution/timing/track) of any systems. No changes to Key Messages necessary at this time.

..Synopsis

A broad swath of snow continues across the Dakota state line and is barely scraping past our southern counties at this point in time. The strongest forcing has all but diminished in our area, so remaining light snow should generally be a few tenths to an inch. Impacts will remain minimal as no wind is associated with this. Snow should come to an end as a 1036mb surface high propagates towards us. Moisture content and forcing will diminish, with cold temperatures being left in its wake this evening with overnight lows well below zero and approaching -20 where more snowpack exists. Light winds will mitigate widespread wind chill impacts, however -30 wind chills could arise in the north if enough wind arises and temperatures fall low enough. Given these questions, a Cold Weather Advisory was not issued tonight but may be necessary if impacts become more widespread.

The 500mb jet max begins to push northward away from our area Sunday into Monday, allowing height rises to occur and temperatures to increase over the region. This will allow temperatures to rise up into the 30s and 40s across the region with overall high temperatures largely being dependent on snowpack status, which is likely to change through each day. As such, predictability for high temperatures is low, but you can generally expect at least above freezing temperatures at some point next week.

Towards the end of the period, there are signals of a breakdown of the large scale ridge providing our warm temperatures. This would increase our chances for an active period, however the evolution of this ridge breakdown will drive our impacts, of which predictability is low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Well MVFR behaved about as expected the last 6 hours which was not at all. Thinking the remaining MVFR at GFK clear in the next few hours but DVL could hang out in MVFR cigs for the next several hours as stratus continues to build across north central ND. Winds becoming southerly between sunrise and noon but overall light around 10kts in the afternoon with gusts of 15-20kts. VFR for all after the morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.