textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry mix Sunday, with a trace to 1" of snow/sleet and a glaze of ice starting in the late morning and persisting through the evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 947 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Quiet weather continues with mostly low clouds across the region. Flurries continue to intermittently lower visibility, but only to 6 miles at worst, so hazardous weather is not expected overnight. Patchy fog may develop west of the Red River Valley but the probability is fairly low at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Intermittent flurries continue beneath a stratus deck along and south of US Highway 2. This will remain the only impact tonight as we await the incoming winter system tomorrow which will approach from west to east just after sunrise. As such, limited impacts continue through the overnight period.

..Synopsis

Progressive ridging currently centered over the Rockies will quickly translate east by tomorrow with a shortwave cresting the flattening ridge and low level warm advection via thermal ridging providing a setup favorable for a wintry mix Sunday. Ridging then completely washes out and flow becomes zonal for the early to mid week period as a few week disturbances sweep east bringing a few chances for freezing drizzle (track dependent and low confidence). Looking towards the later half of the week zonal flow turns SW with Colorado low type action looking likely for the Midwest/Great Lakes by the end of the week/next weekend. Ensembles and even synoptic based conceptual models both support this evolution but weakness in the Bermuda ridging may prove enough to largely escape impacts this time with areas south of us getting the worst of it potentially. Will certainly be something to monitor but for now would trend more towards skepticism for heavy snow in our region.

-Sunday

Broad warm air advection from near the surface up through 700mb and potentially strong FGEN will provide ample ascent with a saturated DGZ falling into a near to slightly above freezing layer (1-2C) with a deep freezing layer below that getting as cold as -8 to -10C making sleet a high probability for at least a portion of the area. Further to the north in the Lake of the Woods area things look to remain snow with a 50/50 shot at a slushy 1" though most areas likely seeing only a few tenths. Along the southern edge there may be loss of ice nuclei aloft proving to be more of a freezing drizzle type setup but as one travels more into the core of the precip band nuclei saturation increases and it turns more to a freezing rain type sounding with a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of ice possible where this gradient sets up. The problem is there is still enough model spread in the placement of this to delay headline decisions and will thus punt for now. Overall expect a trace to 1" of snow/sleet and a mix of freezing rain/drizzle along the south edge decreasing in accumulation with south/westward extend mainly affecting areas of northwest Minnnesota.

- Tuesday

Another weak wave with low level warm advection looks poised to present another freezing drizzle type set up similar the one preceding the Dec 28th winter storm with freezing drizzle/freezing fog being the predominant hazard type over a 48 hour period.

Things then look to clear out for the mid week with surface high pressure but then attention turns towards the weekend. While confidence in the track of the low is minimal if not non existent the synoptic set up indicates a Colorado low is poised to pass into the midwest Friday/Saturday with colder air on its backside as northwest flow takes hold. As stated above would currently lean towards the impacts being more south of our area but knowing the likelihood for things to change would strongly recommend monitoring the forecast for this period for at least the next few days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Stratus will be the main issue through 12z. There is some clearing advancing southward that has allowed TVF and GFK to become VFR, but most guidance has struggled with what to do with this for the overnight hours. Given pattern history, stratus is forecasted to fill in on the routine TAF issuance. This means widespread MVFR ceilings will occur with it. There is the chance we see no stratus fill in which would allow for VFR conditions at GFK and TVF (and possibly more TAF sites).

As we progress past 12z, ceilings will lower to lower end MVFR to IFR as precipitation works its way across northeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. There will be a transition area of precipitation types, with freezing rain and ice pellets the further south you go. The further north you go, it is more likely you will see snow. Right now, the likely precipitation lines southern extent is to the northeast of FAR, hence the lack of precipitation in the routine TAF. Other TAF sites will experience precipitation lasting through the day, although the type is highly uncertain as it depends on the track of this system.

Precipitation should clear out from west to east, but IFR ceilings should linger by the end of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.