textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with heat impacts possible on Wednesday.

- Isolated severe storms possible Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Fog burned off this morning, so let the advisory expire on time at 10 AM. With continued light and variable winds into tonight, can't rule out additional fog formation although not much of a model signal for anything yet and what develops will be fairly shallow and localized. For now just kept patchy smoke mention going and will add fog later if needed.

UPDATE Issued at 431 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Ground fog which initially formed in the Devils Lake basin has expanded and fog layer lifted so that we are seeing more widespread dense fog over the northern Red River valley and thru the Devils Lake, Cando areas to New Rockford. Patchy fog may develop in other locations into Minnesota as well as we approach sunset.

..Heat wave continuing and rain chances mid-week

One of the weak embedded shortwaves coming over the top of the ridge has started to produce some showers and thunderstorms in or near north central ND. SPC meso page has decent 1000 to 1500 J/kg of ML CAPE and shear around 40 kts, but with very weak forcing, and extremely warm mid-level temps, the cells that are developing are struggling. CAMs have that trend continuing with the next weak shortwave arriving later this evening, and this seems reasonable. Our northwestern counties could see a few sprinkles this afternoon and evening, but substantial precipitation will hold off until Wednesday/Thursday as NBM probabilities of at least a tenth of an inch of rain finally rise above 50 percent. ECMWF EFI continues to show a signal for heat continuing through the weekend, and NBM probabilities for temperatures over 95 degrees are over 70 percent for Wednesday. Likely will need heat headlines of some sort again Wednesday so will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions as a few sites still showing 6 miles visibility with some smoke, but only localized reports at this point. Could see some lowered vis due to smoke/fog later tonight and into tomorrow morning, although exactly when and where is uncertain. For now have KGFK going down to MVFR as they have the strongest signal in the model guidance, but other sites may also be impacted. All sites should be VFR by the end of the period, as light and variable winds start picking up out of the south to southwest, remaining below 10 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.