textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably cool today and Wednesday.

- Near critical or critical fire weather conditions may develop Thursday and Friday across the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

No further updates to fcst grids or messaging. Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Snow showers have been moving east-southeast out of S Manitoba and into the far northern RRV and NW MN tonight so did add a 20 pop for snow showers in far NE ND and far NW MN this morning thru 18z. Evening shift and updated and coordinated with BIS and DLH for a 20 pop for afternoon rain and snow showers in northern 2/3 of the fcst area. Coldest air over the area today with highs upper 30s to mid 40s from north to south. -30C 500 mb temps in association with upper low drops over the northern RRV this afternoon. And cold temps aloft combined with 850 mb layer moisture will continue to mean a chance for a few showers (rain and snow).

Updated key message to add potential for near critical or critical fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday as temps do warm a bit and low levels are dry, especially on Thursday, with a WNW wind 8-15 kts. Prog RH values Thursday afternoon 22 to 27 percent.

..Synopsis

Two main distinct features are present across North America this afternoon with an upper low in western Ontario and a low off the Baja coast with split jet flow in between. As the Baja low comes ashore the subtropical jet becomes dominant and the upper low in Canada is finally picked up and ejected east allow for deamplified NW flow to return to our region. This also will bring a downsloping airmass to the the northern plains for the later half of the week with increasing high temps and a drier airmass increasing the fire weather potential. Within the NW will likley be a few subtle shortwaves but nothing noteworthy in terms of precipitation chances.

Lapse rate driven strato-cu are leading to high probability low qpf showers this afternoon with moderate spacing keeping the coverage aspect on the lower side. Continuing with the 20-35% pops this evening with a little graupel even mixing in on the leading edge of the last shower that passed over the office. QPF staying under 0.10" this afternoon with coverage dissipating by midnight. Cant rule out some more shower activity tomorrow.

Additional chances for critical fire weather conditions arise later this week. Persistent northwesterly flow continues to contribute to downsloping and dry airmasses over our region, so days with increasing temperatures will bring an increased risk for critical fire conditions. The main question marks will be wind speeds which do appear likely to meet thresholds of concern for fire late next week with fuel status also remaining critical. ERC percentiles are still largely high though HRB is beginning to respond to green-up so fire spread may become inhibited. At this time, Thursday and Friday appear to have the greatest likelihood for critical fire weather conditions.

With ongoing green up across the region we will be planning to start up Frost/Freeze headlines this coming weekend. Obviously still high uncertainty with respect to exact temperatures come this weekend along with winds but current conditions do support at least a threat that will have to be monitored despite highs in the 50s and 60s by the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Not as windy as Monday, but still anticipate a steady northwest wind today into the 12-17 kt range sustained for midday and afternoon in the prairie locations. Less in the trees. Broken cloud cover with bases predominate in the VFR range...4000 to 8000 ft agl.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.