textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a medium to high chance for dense fog during the evening into morning hours for the next several days. However, confidence in location and duration of fog is low.

- A quick moving system this weekend brings a 20% chance for advisory level winter impacts.

..Mixed precipitation this weekend

With colder air pushing down from the north this weekend, and another weak shortwave moving through the northwesterly flow, there is the chance for some rain showers, or even a bit of freezing rain or snow Friday night into Saturday. Model soundings have a mix at HCO, but amounts look very light at this point. HREF probabilities of over a hundredth of freezing rain are only 30 to 40 percent in a small area of northeastern ND, and NBM probs are even lower. There isn't a strong signal from the ECMWF EHI for a lot of precipitation, and the probabilistic WSSI has around 20 percent in our northern counties. At this time, think that advisory level impacts are not terribly likely, but not out of the question either. Will keep the 20 percent going and mention in the forecast, but no stronger messaging.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

There are a few small pockets of fog in northwest MN (one just east of KFAR), otherwise most locations start the TAF period VFR. Northwest winds have arrived behind a weak cold front that is expected to stall, and with ample low level moisture from snow melt and weak CAA there is an increased signal for fog/stratus over the next 24hr as surface high pressure moves into the region and winds become light and variable. There is already stratus and fog in southeast Manitoba which short range guidance shows this moving south near and east of the Red River Valley through northwest MN after 07-10Z. Confidence is increasing in at least a period of IFR impacts Friday morning, with MVFR ceilings across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. This is shown to lingering over parts of the region through the TAF period, with improvements in visibility as daytime mixing increases. However, predictability of LIFR/VLIFR visibility remains low as coverage/duration could be much more variable.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.