textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog early this Tuesday morning and possible again early Wednesday morning.

- There is a 20% chance for advisory impacts from a wintry mix Thursday night into Friday.

- A more active pattern may continue into next week bringing additional opportunities for winter impacts over parts of the region. Predictability in impacts remains very low beyond Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 637 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Update to aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 352 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A cold frontal boundary is slowly sagging south thru eastern ND and the RRV but it is shallow and having a much harder time moving into MN higher terrain. Frontal boundary at 0945z from near Waskish to Thief River Falls near Hillsboro ND then to near Cooperstown ND. Areas of fog remain along this boundary, locally dense. Patchy fog exists in other areas though. Dense fog pockets isolated and thus handlded with SPS. Low clouds have increased behind the frontal boundary in the colder airmass thru NW MN and NE ND. HRRR shows the boundary dropping south reaching near SD border with significant temperature gradient on either side of the boundary from the low 40s near SD border and west central MN to the low 20s northern RRV for highs today. How long low clouds last and fog as well is highly uncertain. Carried fog in grids thru 16z for now as this is what prev shift had.

UPDATE Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Patchy fog is starting to form across parts of the central Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota. Observations show several locations with visibility as low as about 3/4 mile, with the potential for 1/2 mile visibility at times. This will be in response to a cold front moving slowly southward into the area in the presence of good low level moisture due snowmelt earlier in the day.

..Additional Systems in the Late Forecast Period

As we remain in a general trough west, ridging east pattern for early next week, additional waves and precipitation are likely. However, day to day this evolution remains highly uncertain, with the timing and strength of waves driving what will occur. To give context about how uncertain the day to day pattern is, NBM 25th to 75th temperature spreads are upwards of 20 degrees in spots Sunday into Tuesday of next week. Without any model to model or run to run consistency, its hard to determine what sensible weather will do day to day. Check back in the coming days for updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Challenging aviation forecast today as high uncertainity in when or even if the low clouds (sub 1000 ft agl) clear out today behind a weak cold front dropping south. Areas of fog around this morning with variable vsby, per usual. I would expect the fog vsbys to improve but may not til 17-18z. Low clouds are spreading south and may make it into Fargo early this morning. Otherwise they are in the rest of the TAF sites at 12z and in TAF forecast tried to indicate potential break up early aftn but certainly not high confidence.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.