textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Above average temperatures and dry conditions prevail through at least Saturday.
..Synopsis
Upper pattern features a Pacific jet nosing into the Northern Plains out of the Canadian Rockies. At the surface, a weak and dry front is moving through the region this afternoon into evening. This may allow for some sprinkles, but overall lack of moisture and temperature change behind the front will prevent most rain from reaching the ground.
Post frontal air mass tomorrow will be noticed mostly by an increase in northwest winds, gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps nearing 40 mph in northwest MN during the afternoon. Also in northwest MN, some rain showers may develop lee of Lake of the Woods during the afternoon. Lower RH values in southeast ND will allow for near critical fire weather conditions, however relatively higher moisture fuel status will negate any dedicated messaging of fire weather concerns at this time.
Into late week, upper pattern stays rather zonal with some guidance suggesting upper ridging into the central CONUS by next week. This will continue to support above average temperatures and an overall dry forecast.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Medium to high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period, with gusty winds building starting Wednesday late morning.
Weak, dry front moves through the area this afternoon, keeping a light breeze in the forecast through tonight and Wednesday morning. High resolution modeled guidance does indicate at some potential for localized calm winds dependent influenced by local terrain within the southern Red River Valley and west- central MN. This may allow opportunity for shallow fog to develop, including near KFAR. However, the presence of mid/upper level clouds moving through which may hinder fog development in addition to some lingering light breeze. Thus, confidence is not solely high in fog not being present Wednesday morning in the aforementioned areas.
Winds notably increase out of the northwest around 16Z, and peaking after 18Z. Adding a line in each TAF to annotate this increase in winds, although after 18Z winds are forecast into the 15-25kt, gusting 25-37kt, highest in northwest MN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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