textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Level 1 out of 5 severe risk tonight in the Devils Lake Basin with the potential for hail up to 1 inch.
- Level 1 out of 5 severe risk Monday afternoon with a primary risk for large hail along with secondary risk for strong winds and a tornado or two.
- Level 1 out of 5 severe risk Tuesday for large hail and damaging wind gusts along and south of I-94/HWY 10. There is also a level 2 of 4 risk for flash flooding in the same area.
..Severe Thunderstorm and Flash Flood Chances Tuesday
Heading into Tuesday, another round of showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for hail, damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding into parts of the region. The best chances look to be along and south of the I-94 corridor at this time. Initiation favors the area including south central and southeast North Dakota, with storms moving from west to east parallel to the initiating theta-e gradient boundary. This could set the stage for thunderstorms that traverse the same areas repeatedly through the afternoon and evening.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, with the primary impact related to eventual thunderstorm development/coverage. The focus for shower/thunderstorm development will be a frontal zone currently in western ND and and Manitoba that will slide southeast overnight through Monday morning. Initially elevated showers/thunderstorm chances are highest in the KDVL region tonight/Monday morning but as the front moves southeast scattered development is expected Monday afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong/severe with large hail/wind. Due to variable coverage I kept mention limited to PROB30 groups for now during most likely periods Monday during this TAF period.
South-southeast winds should eventually shift to the southwest then west-northwest as the front passes Monday (from north central ND to northwest MN by Monday evening). A few gusts to 25kt may occur at times, but gusts to 30kt are not expected outside of thunderstorm activity.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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