textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional chances for thunderstorms exist over the holiday weekend, with a level 1 out of 5 chance each day. The main impacts for any storms that become severe will be ping pong ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph.

..Marginal severe chances tonight, tomorrow and Monday

Some MU CAPE still around, but SPC mesoanalysis page has a lot of CIN with the mixed layer CAPE. Most of the CAMs don't have much over eastern ND until later tonight when the shortwave over WY comes northeast, but given recent poor performance do not have much trust in their solutions. There will be plenty of MU CAPE again overnight, although bulk shear will be fairly modest around 30 kts. Some convection could be ongoing tomorrow morning, with HREF showing a low probability of strong updraft helicity tracks in west central MN. Another shortwave coming through could bring more thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon and evening, although much will depend on how the morning activity plays out and if the atmosphere recovers. Better shear looks to be in store for Monday, although instability is more uncertain. At this point, can't rule out an isolated instance of hail up to ping pong balls or 60 mph winds through the rest of the holiday weekend, but confidence in exactly when and where is low.

AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 946 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Several periods throughout the TAF period may bring aviation impacts. The first period of concern is tonight into early Sunday morning. MVFR to IFR pockets of stratus may develop, along with a few areas of fog. However, where exactly this may occur is highly uncertain, and timing of its development is also uncertain. Therefore, kept any lower ceilings or visibilities out of the TAFs for the overnight period. KDVL and KGFK seem to hold at least a slightly higher chance of these impacts over other terminals, but again, low predictability precludes any addition into the TAFs.

The next period of concern is really all day Sunday into early Sunday night, as thunderstorms are expected to develop. Thunderstorm development in the morning is highly uncertain, however it seems later in the day, coverage of activity should increase. Therefore, introduced a PROB30 at all terminals after 0z Monday for -TSRA. Timing of this activity can be narrowed down as we get closer in time.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.