textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong westerly winds gusting up to 45 to 50 mph will continue today mainly near the Canadian border, bringing the potential for blowing dust impacts again this afternoon.

- Dry conditions along with the winds will bring critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all counties through late this evening.

- On Sunday and continuing into Monday, widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into the region. Most areas will receive at least half an inch of rain, with a 50 percent chance for some locations to see over an inch of rainfall.

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for a few elevated thunderstorms bringing a threat for one inch hail Sunday afternoon.

..Severe chances Sunday afternoon

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for some severe storms to develop Sunday afternoon for portions of southeastern ND and west central MN. Much will depend on how the morning rainfall plays out, and if we can get the warm front to push far enough north to get into our southern counties. Still, quite a few of the ensemble members have some elevated instability around 1500 J/kg, even though the average surface based CAPE is only around 200 J/kg. Can't rule out some elevated storms that could produce some quarter sized hail, so will monitor how things evolve closely on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Some BLDU at KGFK has dropped visibility into the MVFR to IFR range, but other TAF sites have remained VFR. Some of less sheltered airports, all but KBJI, could see some BLDU later today, but will keep it 6 miles and above until it actually develops. Winds will slowly start to decrease this evening, with gusts dropping below 30 kts around sunset. Winds will drop even further during the overnight hours to below 12 kts, but will pick up again out of the northwest late morning tomorrow with some gusts above 20 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054. MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027>032-040. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>005-007- 008-013>015-022-027.