textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- A quick tracking system will bring predominately rain Monday night into Tuesday.

- Multiple scenarios exist around a late week storm system, including the potential for widespread accumulating snow in combination with strong winds.

UPDATE

Issued at 722 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

No major changes as of early this morning. Cirrus is pushing to the south and east, with otherwise quiet weather.

..Stronger Storm System Late Week

A complicated but potentially highly impactful system will track through the region Thursday into Friday. To start, shortwave ridging in place early Thursday will bring WAA over the FA. This will induce strong southerly winds, warming temperatures, and a transient band of frontogensis propagating from west to east. As we go into Thursday night and Friday morning, ensembles show the main low tracking straight south out of Canada somewhere into MN. Simultaneously , a strong arctic front will barrel down across the Southern Canadian Prairies into the Northern Plains. Winds will increase, with gusts in excess of 40 mph, along with another round of light falling snow. This is where the state of the snowpack will become critical. If 2 or more inches of snow falls on Thursday and temperatures remain cool enough to not form a thick crust, widespread blowing snow and whiteout conditions become a concern. Meanwhile, if we get less then two inches of snow on Thursday, or if temperatures warm just a few degrees too high and a thick crust is able to form, visibility reductions will be harder to come by, and tied to only areas with actively falling snow. Therefore, there is a wide range in potential scenarios regarding how the late week forecast evolves. At a minimum, light snow will accumulate with some visibility reductions when snow showers pass by during the strongest winds on Friday. Towards the upper end of the spectrum, snow on Thursday, followed by more light falling snow and strong winds on Friday would create near blizzard to blizzard conditions for at least portions of the FA. Currently, there are many details to be ironed out with the forecast at this range, so make sure to check back for updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 554 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR throughout the TAF period, with LLWS becoming a concern Monday evening into Monday night. While ceilings do not look to bring impacts, precipitation is possible late in the TAF period. Temperatures will be warm enough to bring mostly rain, with the track of the system favoring TAF sites in northwestern MN to see anything measurable. However, the spotty nature of the precipitation precluded it from being put into this set of TAFs. As we get within the 12 hour window, a TEMPO or PROB30 group will likely be needed to account for this, particularly at KTVF and KBJI. Winds will also become gusty in the second half of the TAF period, out of the west/northwest.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.