textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- A major winter storm will impact southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota starting late this afternoon, lasting into Sunday. Heavy snow amounts 5 to 10 inches, near blizzard conditions, and significant drifting snow will create dangerous and potentially impossible travel conditions.

- Near blizzard conditions are expected overnight tonight into Sunday morning within far southeast North Dakota and southern Red River Valley. There is a 50% chance blizzard conditions will develop.

- Freezing rain and accumulating snow may bring travel impacts Tuesday. The probability for advisory level impacts is 60 percent.

..Near blizzard conditions

There is still a 50% chance for blizzard conditions to develop in far southeast ND and southern Red River Valley tonight into Sunday morning. While heavy snow rates combine with northeast/north winds 25-35 mph will likely bring its own whiteout conditions, the lack of strong cold air advection and more robust pressure gradient during the period of heavier snow rates lowers our confidence in true blizzard conditions developing. Hence, this is why we are messaging "near blizzard" conditions.

Winds do increase between 35-45 mph in these areas Sunday morning, but current guidance suggests only light snow will be falling. These snow rates and winds combine with temperatures in the teens do not quite match up to true blizzard conditions per blowing snow guidance from HREF. Should heavier rates linger longer and/or strongest winds with the strengthening pressure gradient arrive sooner, blizzard conditions will likely develop.

Should the latter scenario arise, an upgrade to Blizzard Warning will be necessary.

Into Sunday afternoon, blowing and drifting snow will likely continue in the southern Red River Valley. However, at this time, confidence is not high enough to extend any warning or advisory through Sunday afternoon, mainly due to uncertainties in wind strength and placement of newly received snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Aviation impacts stem from increasingly gusty winds, lowered ceilings, and snow/blowing snow reducing visibility. Each TAF has its own timing of such impacts, with most sites starting impacts between 06Z-12Z Sunday.

Ceilings are most likely to remain in the MVFR category, although there is a low chance for periodic instances of IFR.

Visibility reductions from snow/blowing snow will be lowest in southeast ND and west-central MN, including KFAR where 1/2SM is forecast.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ038-039. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ049-052-053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ003. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ024-027-028. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ029. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ030>032-040.