textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Several weak clipper systems traverse the area through the middle of next week. Light snow and periodic gusty winds are possible, primarily in northwest Minnesota and the northern Red River Valley.

UPDATE

Issued at 1006 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Additional adjustments were made to account for temperatures already dropping to forecast lows this evening and not showing signs of slowing down. Southerly flow and increasing winds are still forecast by daybreak, however temperatures appear likely to fall closer to the 25th percentile of NBM based on current trends. Winds chills are currently in the -15 to -25 range, though a few brief/localized reports of -30 wind chill values can't be ruled out tonight. Coverage and duration limiting impacts and a Cold Weather Advisory is not being considered at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Skies are mostly clear, and outside of locations in our northwest (along the western edge of the surface ridge) winds are quickly dropping. Temperatures are also dropping quickly under good radiational conditions, with many locations in ND and far northwest MN already below zero. Forecast is on track for a cold night ahead, and only minor adjustments to capture near term trends were necessary.

..Synopsis

Cold high pressure is centered over the area this afternoon, and will slowly move off to the southeast later tonight. Winds are expected to become light overnight, allowing somewhat favorable conditions for radiative cooling, especially over areas with deeper snow pack. Lows across many areas will fall below zero, with southeast ND and west central MN possibly seeing teens below zero. While winds will be light overnight, wind chill values are still likely to fall into the -25 to -20 range through just after sunrise. Warmer temperatures return on Thursday as the thermal gradient pushes northward ahead of a warm front. This will bring a chance for light snow back into the area late Thursday into Friday morning, mainly for areas in northwest Minnesota. A cold front and clipper bring cold air and snow chances for Friday evening and overnight into Saturday morning. Highs on Thursday and Friday are likely to climb into the 20s, with much colder highs in the single digits on Saturday. The overnight period Saturday night into Sunday morning could be the coldest of the season for many locations as lows could fall into the teens below zero across much of eastern North Dakota, west central Minnesota, and northwest Minnesota.

Heading into next week, the H5 pattern continues to support the oscillation between reinforcing cold air and occasional shortwaves bringing moisture. A thermal gradient looks to remain in place for the most part, with much of eastern North Dakota to the northeast of the baroclinic zone. This keeps the area generally on the colder side; however, brief warmups and precipitation chances are evident in ensemble guidance. The persistence of this pattern hints at the potential for active winter weather for the middle of next week onward.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 12Z across eastern ND and northwest MN. Winds shift to the south and increase Thursday morning as low pressure builds back in from the west. This fast moving system brings increasing chances for MVFR ceilings across northeast ND and northwest MN Thursday along with a 30% chance for light snow (mainly in MN). An associated cold front pushes through the region, and with it winds would begin to shift back to the west late in the TAF period. Once MVFR ceilings overspread the region late afternoon they should continue through the evening/overnight Thursday, with a better chance for IFR ceilings mainly in central MN (including BJI).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.