textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms mainly this afternoon in north central Minnesota from Baudette thru Bemidji to Wadena. Hail to 1 inch and wind gusts 60 mph the main threats.

UPDATE

Issued at 447 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Scattered storms have moved east/northeast well ahead of a cold front which is still back west of Baudette thru Crookston to west of Fargo. Light winds make the exact location difficult and dew points are such that there isnt a big drop off right behind the front. One storm did intensify enough to warrant SPS for wind gusts 40-45 mph and hail 1/2 to 3/4 inch over Lower Red Lake. Plus nudger to issue is summer fishing season is ongoing and resorts in the area are busy. So played it more cautious.

For later today.... a narrow zone of 1000-1500 j/kg instability is forecast to exist from near Dryden Ontario to near International Falls, Baudette areas south along the DLH/FGF border region. Enough for SPC to maintain a level 1 out of 5 severe risk. HREF indicates higher instability and better helicity tracks over the MN arrowhead region this afternoon/eve.

Otherwise upper low in east central Saskatchewan will move east/southeast toward Winnipeg midday and then to near Kenora by this evening. Expect wraparound clouds and a few showers and t-storms to develop to the west and south of the upper low late morning thru the afternoon and evening, primarily along and north of Highway 2.

UPDATE Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Currently, the cold front is pushing through the Devils Lake Basin. Earlier storms have waned in intensity or pushed entirely out of the FA. A few storms have tried to form on the cold front. Despite the relatively favorable parameter space (45 knots of effective shear, 2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE), these storms have remained sub severe. Therefore, the window for an additional severe storm or two seems to be closing. Rather, general thunderstorms seem more likely overnight in the weakly forced WAA regime or occasionally along the stronger forcing provided by the cold front. Recent CAM solutions are also coming into agreement on this idea. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #625 remains in effect for another 90 minutes or so for portions of eastern ND and adjacent areas of MN, and at this time expansion/extension seems unlikely.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Severe thunderstorm watch #625 has been issued for much of eastern North Dakota and northwestern MN. Deep convection has initiated on a cold front across central ND. Further north, satellite shows little cumulus development in our far western FA and adjacent portions of Manitoba, so we likely still have an hour or two until storms even initiate. Long, straight hodographs with effective shear of up to 50 knots will promote splitting supercells, with hail being the predominate threat. Current thinking is that the cluster of supercells north of Jamestown will continue to track east/southeastward towards southeastern ND with time. Additional storms will develop in an hour or two across southern Manitoba and northeastern ND. This area of convection will also eventually track east/southeast this evening into early tonight, impacting northern portions of watch #625. The watch is in effect until 1 AM CDT.

..Scattered Severe Storms This Evening and Overnight

Instability is slowly building this afternoon as warmer temps and higher moisture levels work into the area. Dew points have increased into the lower to middle 60s in most areas, with SBCAPE values generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range early this afternoon. Model soundings show the potential for 2500 to 3000 J/Kg by early evening. Mid level shear is present, but unidirectional above 700 mb, leading to straight hodographs and a continued support for splitting supercells. It is worth noting, however, that given the tendency to split, these supercells are also likely to interact and eventually form clusters. The primary hazard during the afternoon and early evening will be large hail to the size of golf balls, with a low chance for an isolated tornado. Due to relatively weak low level shear, tornado risk will be dependent on longer lived supercells that avoid interaction with nearby cells. With DCAPE in the 1100 to 1400 J/Kg range, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph are supported late this afternoon through mid evening.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Intermittent MVFR conditions are being observed at KDVL and KGFK, with otherwise VFR cloud cover. An upper low will continue to usher in MVFR cloud cover this afternoon and evening, especially at KBJI and KTVF. There is the potential for IFR ceilings late in the TAF period at KBJI. Winds remain out of the northwest to west at 10 to 15 knots, with gusts to 25 knots. Gusts will become less numerous late this evening. There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms across northwest Minnesota this evening into Wednesday morning. KTVF has the best chance of seeing precipitation; however, confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.