textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- The clipper train will remain in place into early next week. Periodic light snow chances, focused in NW Minnesota Thursday and in central into southeast North Dakota Saturday. Sub Advisory impacts.

UPDATE

Issued at 558 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Skies have cleared nicely over the last 2-3 hours. Lingering clouds only from Bemidji to Wadena and scattered stratocu SE ND and rest of NW MN. Soundings support potential for CU development with heating today, but also pretty dry at 850 mb region. Cold morning with wind chills -10 to -25F.

..Synopsis

The coldest airmass of the week to move in today with minus 18C to minus 22C 850 mb advecting into eastern ND and northwest MN today into this evening. We are having clearing work south, but also with the colder airmass quite a bit of ice crystals, and also lingering flurries to start today. Highs today mostly single digits with wind chills -15 to -25F below. Winds dimninish this evening and shoud be a quick fall off in temps, especially southeast ND and west central MN where deeper snow cover exists. Winds turn south overnight Wed night with likely rising temps esp northeast ND. Next in our parade of clipper systems will track from northern Saskatchewan to just east of Winnipeg by 00z Fri. This track keeps the steadier snow Manitoba into NW Ontario but brushing NW MN. Snow amounts 1-2 inches seem possible Baudette, Warroad area with lesser amounts to a tenth or two northern Red River valley, Thief River Falls to Bemidji. Surface lot itself isnt strong and cold advection behind it weak so not much in the way of gusty winds behind this for Thursday night. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensembles indicate chances for more than 2 inches of snow in a 24 hour period Thursday into Thursday night around 15 percent Lake of the Woods area.

Next clipper of importance to watch will be Saturday with this one farther west and tracking closer to the baroclinic zone from western Alberta into eastern Montana and southwest ND. Some differences in how far east snow will reach but NBM and model ensembles and ECMWF and GFS AI models all indicate highest chances for 1 inch ore more west of Devils Lake to Valley City with chances for 2 inches or more more toward Wiliston and Dickinson.

So wintry impacts from both of these systems in our area will be sub advisory.

Very far end of the extended toward Dec 9/10th there is a signal that a bit more potent low may develop in Alberta and move east-southeast and the baroclinic zone mid next week surging east. Not a huge storm, but sometime potentially more impactful. But it is too far away to note any confidence.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Skies have cleared nicely overnight. Lingering clouds Bemidji but they should clear or scatter out as well. Soundings would support potential for some CU development (stratocu) with sfc heating, but also quite dry airmass 850 mb region moving in. So kept sites SCT coverage clouds most of the day. North-northwest winds gusty at times this morning but overall diminishing. Winds turn south-southwest overnight tonight, esp E ND.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.