textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog continues through the day today.

- Freezing drizzle/rain will continue across northeast North Dakota, eventually becoming more widespread and pushing southeast through the overnight and morning hours.

- A more active pattern continues into next week, bringing additional opportunities for winter impacts over parts of the region. Predictability in impacts remains very low beyond Friday.

..FREEZING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT/TOMORROW

The main weather impact for the next 24-48 hours will be freezing drizzle and freezing rain. This afternoon, large scale strong warm air advection is contributing to ongoing freezing drizzle across northeast North Dakota. As the warm front propagates westward, the expectation is for freezing drizzle to be taken with it. However, as a wave coming in from northern Montana approaches, the warm front is expected to stall and eventually become a cold front, forcing eastward propagation. With the increased forcing for ascent from the synoptic wave, precipitation is expected to become much more widespread. Thermal profiles will be variable causing different precipitation types based on location. Surface temperatures around the Devils Lake Basin should remain well below freezing despite temperatures aloft achieving above freezing. This creates a profile favorable for widespread freezing rain. Areas within the above freezing area are more likely to see rain. This swath of precipitation will propagate eastward with the freezing rain area slowly being overtaken by colder air, thus allowing for a transition to snow. Unfortunately, model guidance is all over the place with when this transition occurs, so a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for freezing rain concerns. There is very little concern at this time with regards to snow potential as it appears that the strong warm nose will largely inhibit any significant accumulating snowfall. Hazardous travel conditions are expected to develop with this freezing rain so use caution when out traveling tonight.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions will continue to prevail for the TAF period, largely aided by fog and low ceilings. Patchy drizzle is possible this afternoon as well, but the bulk of precipitation will begin around 00z at DVL, eventually spreading southeast through the overnight period. FZRA is likely to occur at GFK/TVF/FAR before transitioning over to snow. MVFR visibilities from precipitation are likely with occasional IFR, however flight categories will remain IFR/LIFR from ceilings. Precipitation will improve from northwest to southeast through the morning hours, although snow is likely to be ongoing by the end of the TAF period for all TAF sites except DVL who will be done with precipitation.

Wind directions will remain variable over the next several hours as a warm front continues to push northwest. On the warm side of the front, southeasterly winds will occur while on the cold side of the front northwesterly winds will occur. This front should eventually stall before being kicked back east. Eventually, all TAF sites will begin to experience northwesterly winds again as the front moves through.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for NDZ038-039-049-052-053. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-054. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ001>004- 007. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.