textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Level 2 out of 5 severe risk this afternoon into early evening with a primary risk for large hail along with secondary risk for winds to 70 mph, brief tornadoes, and flash flooding.

- Level 2 out of 5 severe risk late Tuesday for hail and damaging wind gusts along and south of I-94/HWY 10.

- There is a level 2 of 4 risk for flash flooding across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota Tuesday night into Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 708 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Cold front has pushed south and east, with winds shifting to the northwest at Valley City, Grand Forks, Roseau, and other sites along the northern and western edge of the severe thunderstorm watch. Convection has stayed out ahead of the cold front, and although dew points are still quite moist right behind the boundary, drier air is slowly moving in. Let the watch go for our east central ND and northwestern MN counties. As for the convection, will have to watch the intersection of the cold front and a few pre-frontal troughs across the southern Red River Valley and west central MN. There seems to be a transition to more clustering/linear type threat, although can't rule out a brief weak tornado in a few spots.

..Severe storm potential late Tuesday

Today's cold front stalls within SD and central or southern MN by Tuesday. Another shortwave trough moves eastward through the zonal flow across the Dakotas, sparking thunderstorms near the stalled front. This front, and instability near it, is expected to be close enough to our area to allow for potential strong to severe storms to spread eastward within southeast ND and west- central MN. Main hazards with this activity will be hail to the size of quarters and gusty winds to 60 mph, although should the front be placed deeper into our area, hail to the size of golf balls and 70 mph may ensue.

Perhaps more at the forefront of hazards is potential for flash flooding in these areas. This is driven by strong forcing combined with very rich moisture overrunning the front, of which instability will also be present. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches, perhaps up to 4 inches, is reasonable expectation. Should this fall on areas that receive high rain today, excessive rainfall leading to flooding would be increased.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A cold front is moving southeast through the region this evening. A line of showers and storms is filling in along this cold front and will push through the eastern and southern TAF sites this evening. Once the cold front passes, winds will shift from the northwest and remain steady around 8-13kts for a few hours. In the early morning hours on Tuesday, northerly winds will become light and we will see some SCT-BKN high clouds. Some light fog is possible, this has been mentioned at DVL and BJI. We will remain VFR through most of the day on Tuesday. Rain will move in from the west in the late afternoon and into the evening hours.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.