textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening for parts of southeast North Dakota and west central into north central Minnesota. Hail to the size of ping pong balls, wind gusts to 60 mph, and a few tornadoes will be threats.

UPDATE

Issued at 718 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Models were correct in showing the rapid development of t-storms from southwest into northeast ND and far northwest MN overnight. Few hailers as well. Now a blob of numerous storms from Bismarck area to Grand Forks and even to Valley City. Short term models do indicate though this afternoon there should be enough sun and differential heating to re-intensify the surface boundary roughly Roseau-Hillsboro-Valley City axis and therefore keep the severe threat as forecast for late today and evening.

..Severe Weather Risk Monday Afternoon/Evening

CAMs continue to show ongoing elevated shower and thunderstorms through Monday afternoon as the main trough moves across the region. If smoke aloft is too thick or mid level clouds/elevated storms linger, severe threats may remain isolated/marginal in nature with stronger capping in place. However where there is more clearing, CAMs are showing a signal for EML development ahead of the front with strongly sheared turning hodographs supportive of supercells. There should be enough forcing with the trough and front in that scenario for the CAP to be eroded near the frontal zone, and a more organized severe threat in the afternoon/evening. CAMs do show the stronger UH tracks/supercell type signal with some showing bowing type MCS clusters and this reflects the higher level scenario that is conditional on better surface based destabilization.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 718 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Main zone of thunderstorms will remain from Bismarck area up to Grand Forks to Roseau. KTVF and KDVL affected as well. In this zone variable conditions with ocnl ceilings into MVFR range with scattered t-storms. A few showers or t-storms into Fargo area look increasingly likely by mid morning but clears out this aftn before chance of storms return Fargo area late today.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.