textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this evening, mainly for hail to ping pong ball sized.

- Another round of thunderstorms expected Monday, with a level 1 out of 5 risk for the entire forecast area. The main impacts for any storms that become severe will be ping pong ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph.

..Marginal risk for severe Monday

The ridge axis shifts east tomorrow and the flow aloft becomes southwesterly. Deep layer shear will be increasing up into the 40 to 50 kt range by tomorrow afternoon. But the instability becomes more uncertain. Some of the ensemble members don't have any surface based CAPE at all, but enough do that the mean CAPE into eastern ND is around 1500 J/kg. Much will depend on what exactly happens this evening and into the overnight. HREF and REFS updraft helicity probabilities have some chance, but not super impressive. At this point with all the unknowns the level 1 risk seems reasonable.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Widespread disorganized thunderstorms will continue this evening but confidence in the evolution and placement is negligible and thus have chose to prevail thunderstorms at all sites for the next few hours to give some breathing room and too let people know to plan for thunderstorms in the area even if not at the taf site. MVFR overnight as cigs lower and winds picking up as cigs improve late tomorrow morning. Overall an unpleasant next 24 hours for aviation.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.