textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures return next week, bringing periodic chances for near critical to critical fire weather.

..Synopsis

The remnants of the winter system from last night remains across portions of northwest Minnesota, bringing periods of snow across that area. With the increased solar angle this time of year, sublimation processes allow for winter impacts to be significantly limited, really only arising in the form of visibility reductions.

Deep upper troughing will keep our temperatures cold and dry this weekend. High temperatures this weekend will be generally be fairly cool in the upper 30s to low 40s. Heights begin to rise early next week, so temperatures will rise through next week. Moisture return is meager at best. With temperatures in the 60s and 70s expected next week, this brings the potential for near critical to critical fire weather through next week. The greatest chances for this look to be midweek where HDWI probabilities really highlight exceeding 90th percentile. ERC percentiles per NRCC look to become much more favorable next week, and with live fuel moistures remaining at 30%, Red Flag Warnings are a possibility depending on mesoscale features such as cloud cover and vertical mixing, which carries a lower predictability horizon.

The next chances for precipitation look to be late next week as ridging propagates eastward and returns moisture flow to the region. The profiles appear to be warm, so at this point in time it appears more likely than not that rain will be the primary issue, however winter precipitation cannot be ruled out depending on how things shake out. In any case, EFI isn't setting off any alarm bells for precipitation amounts, so there is a low probability for any significant impacts at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

As precipitation comes to an end across the region, mainly low ceilings will be lingering through the afternoon. Winds will increase from the northwest with periodic gusts between 30-35 knots. Once winds get to a 300-330 direction, it will stay there for the most part through the end of the TAF period. Ceilings should eventually improve this afternoon, but there could be additional MVFR ceilings at TVF and BJI overnight. Given proximity to the upper low, this appears to be a more likely than not outcome so it was added to the routine TAF. Additional edits will likely be necessary based on observational trends. Skies should eventually clear tomorrow afternoon after the TAF period ends, ideally bringing a period of VFR conditions once more to the region.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.