textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with heat index values around 100 in the Red River Valley Wednesday.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Thursday, with 1 inch hail and wind gusts to 60 mph the main impacts expected.

..Marginal severe risk on Thursday

Many of the CAMs break out some convection along the MT/ND border Wednesday afternoon, then move it east Wednesday night. There is a low chance that some of the cells will be holding together by the time they reach far western Benson county early Thursday morning, but many of the model runs just have the convective complex decreasing in intensity. Whether we get any convective redevelopment in the afternoon along the trough axis will depend on how exactly the morning plays out. At this point, the 50th percentile has 1000-2500 J/kg of CAPE over all but our far northwestern counties Thursday afternoon, although deep layer shear is fairly mid, around 25 to 30 kts at most. Still, can't rule out some isolated severe cells so will continue with a marginal risk for Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions and generally light winds below 12 knots sustained will prevail for the TAF period. For overnight tonight, fog may develop once more in some locations and potentially bring visibilities to lower flight categories, however the predictability for this is low at this time. Smoke may bring MVFR visibilities to all TAF sites through tomorrow, at least causing reductions to 6SM through the end of the TAF period. Southerly winds increase tomorrow with peak sustained winds between 8-10 knots with occasional gusts approaching 15 knots at best.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for NDZ008-016- 027-029-030-039. MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ001>004- 007.