textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain tonight with another round Monday night bringing a two day total of a quarter to half inch for nearly all areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Severe potential continues to dwindle in our southeast (Wilkin, Grant, Ottertail, Wadena counties) with a small hail threat the main concern as of now through about 10-11pm. Could see some hail up to dime size but even that feels like a stretch. IN OTHER NEWS ITS RAINING. For the first time since mid to late April for most we are seeing rain totals over a quarter inch which should immensely help to put a damper on blowing dust and fire danger.

..SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the warm front roughly situated just north of Sioux Falls. This has allowed intense isentropic ascent over our area, bringing some solid moisture content to the region. This warm front remains expected to propagate northward this afternoon and bringing surface moisture with it. CAM guidance continues to generally prog the surface instability south of our CWA, barely scraping Grant County. Per HREF probabilities, there is only a 10% chance to even see 500 J/kg of SCAPE. MUCAPE also is very closely attached to this warm front and shares similar probabilities as a result. Having said that, shear associated with the front is rather strong, approaching 50+ knots. There will be a brief window this evening (likely at most 1-2 hours) wherein severe convection may impact our west-central Minnesota counties. Any severe convection will most likely be hail as storms are likely to be elevated as storm relative winds in the 0-2km layer are most likely to be due easterly, so it will be difficult to ingest warmer air to the south. If surface-based convection arises, tornadoes can't be ruled out but again this is very unlikely at this time and would require very strong propagation northward in the warm front. The window of severe thunderstorms ends roughly close to midnight at the latest, but should generally be out of the area by 8-10 PM CDT.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

IFR ceilings are overspreading eastern ND (LIFR in central ND), and will eventually overspread northwest MN through 09Z. There may be a brief period of improvement to MVFR early Monday afternoon, however IFR should return to all sites by the evening. Winds will trend towards the north-northwest as low pressure shifts to the south of the region.

Organized areas of rain/rain showers are still transitioning from eastern ND across northwest MN, with drizzle/light fog potentially lingering into the morning hours. There should be a break in rain before the next system arrives late Monday afternoon and areas of rain overspread much of eastern ND and northwest MN once again through the evening hours.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.