textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry mix possible across northeast North Dakota and far NW Minnesota between midnight tonight and noon Monday. There is a 30 percent chance for advisory impacts due to light freezing rain.

- A stronger system could bring additional impacts late this week. There is a 40 percent chance for advisory impacts.

..Synopsis

Warmer temperatures are slowly working into the area this afternoon as a warm front lifts northeastward. Precipitation chances increase overnight, with wintry mix possible, especially north of Highway 2. This surge of moisture is associated with a larger system that will bring additional precip chances into the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Much warmer temps prevail on Monday as WAA continues, especially south of Highway 2. Afternoon highs will range from the 30s along the International Border, to the low 60s in southeast North Dakota. This surge in temperatures will be short- lived, however, as colder air filters into the area from the northeast as the system continues along the baroclinic zone. Temperature profiles, Monday night into Tuesday morning, support rain for much of the southern Red River Valley and southeast North Dakota; however, areas to the north and east will see another round of wintry mix and light snow. At this time, there is an 80 percent chance for 1 inch of snow along the International Border, with lower chances to the south. The main concern, however, will be the chance for a light glaze of ice due to wintry mix and freezing rain. There is a 30 percent chance for advisory level impacts, mainly due to the potential travel impacts from the light glaze of ice.

Heading into mid week, high temperatures rebound slightly on Wednesday and Thursday, with 30s and 40s both days. Another system begins to enter the forecast on Friday, which could bring additional chances for winter impacts. Ensembles have been in good agreement for several days now regarding the development of an upper low, that will move across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. There is still some uncertainty about the track, which will ultimately determine the ptype as it moves across the area. There are two main scenarios that are supported in cluster analysis, one with the low tracking along and just north of the International Border, and an alternate scenario where the low tracks across southern North Dakota and into southeast Minnesota. The northern track would keep ptypes in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota mostly rain and possibly wintry mix. The southern track, however, brings heavy snow into the forecast area, especially on the back side of the low as it moves eastward. Both scenarios bring moisture, however, the southern scenario would be more impactful from a winter weather perspective. Additionally, pressure gradients will be high on both the approach and departure of the upper low, bringing gusty winds starting as early as late Thursday and persisting through Saturday. There is currently a 40 percent aggregate chance for advisory impacts, with the probs being lower with the northern track and much higher with a southern track.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

After 06Z low stratus (MVFR) overspreads parts of northeast ND including KDVL, while VFR is more likley to prevail through Monday afternoon across southeast ND and much of northwest MN. Precipitation chances increase across northeast ND and closer to the International border northwest MN through Monday morning. The best chances for light snow are at KDVL currently in the 09-13Z period with lower chances (30%) for freezing rain. KGFK is right on the line of where precipitation chance chances and MVFR stratus tracks and has a 30% for those conditions to occur Monday morning. Another wave may bring rain chances to the region Monday night, with the best chance for a wintry mix during that period in north central MN after the current TAF period.

North to northeast winds 9-13kt are expected Monday morning. Winds then become east-southeast across parts of the region as surface low pressure moves through southern Manitoba just to the north and a frontal zone sits over the region between KGFK and KFAR. Winds eventually shift back to the north and northwest behind a front late Monday evening into Monday night as MVFR and IFR stratus begins to overspread much more of the region.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.