textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating heavy snow will impact our region Tuesday night into Thursday. There is a 60% chance of warning impacts along and north of Highway 200.

- Widespread precipitation and melted snowpack brings a low risk for flooding impacts in the southern Red River Valley.

UPDATE

Issued at 537 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Updated pops a bit and hourly temperatures for the afternoon period. Not much change to the temps nor pops with main focus arriving 23z and afterwards. Later this morning more data coming in and hopefully narrow down the warning vs advisory area better. Winter impacts would start 03-06z period far north and along Hwy 2 06z and after. Changeover from rain to snow strongly tied to temperature. Moist system so dew pts and temperatures will be very close so not a lot of room for evaporative cooling.

UPDATE Issued at 1031 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A few small pockets of dense fog have formed this evening in ND where winds have been lighter in valleys/sheltered areas. The main one was in the Sheyenne River Valley (Barnes, Sargent, Ransom counties), with another near Langdon. This should be transient as easterly winds are already increasing and should help break up the fog over the next hour or so. I issued an SPS for the far southeast ND counties impacted through midnight.

..WINTER STORM

The main story continues to be the developing winter storm that looks to impact our area late Tuesday evening, lasting into early Thursday morning. Water vapor satellite at 19z shows the developing jet over southern California and a fire hose of moisture working its way up through the intermountain west. As we progress through the overnight hours, this moisture should start to make its way up the Northern Plains towards our area.

Leading ridging should keep precipitation types generally as rain through all of Tuesday afternoon and the first half of Tuesday evening. Intensifying isentropic ascent over the region may be able to facilitate freezing rain early Tuesday evening, heavily dependent on potential wet bulbing, so winter impacts may arise prior to the development of snow.

Temperatures aloft should remain above freezing through the evening, but eventually 850mb temperatures will fall below freezing due to cold air advection. Lapse rates just above this layer are rather steep (6-7 K/km), meaning hefty rates of precipitation can be expected. If snow changes over as this develops, then you can expect to see 1-2 inch/hour snowfall rates, of which HREF shows a 60-90% chance along and north of US Highway 2 for developing. While blizzard conditions are unlikely thanks to lack of a current snowpack and generally limited wind production, significantly reduced visibility from heavy snowfall rates can be expected with this.

The worst conditions should develop once everyone becomes snow, which will occur Wednesday morning, likely impacting the morning commute. Wet, heavy snow is expected with this system as snow ratios will generally be between 8-12 and have a very high QPF. EFI painting a large swath of 0.80+ with multiple shift of tails is certainly eye-opening from a potential impacts standpoint. As such, there is the potential for areas to see 8+ inches of snow and potentially more extreme values exceeding a foot.

Where is the axis of heaviest snowfall going to be? Well, sadly there is a very high degree of uncertainty in this and there is no most likely outcome. Half of ensemble members feature a scenario where the axis of snowfall is generally north of US Highway 2 while the other half of ensemble members bring it as far south as Highway 200. Regardless, wherever the axis of highest snowfall is will see 6-10 inches of snow, theoretically more is possible as well. Neighborhood probabilities confirm this line of thinking with 80-90% probabilities for 6 inches of snow already by 12z Wednesday morning from HREF (with more snow ongoing).

Snow should continue through Wednesday and eventually taper off through Thursday, however a few extreme ensemble members do depict a potential stalled low scenario, so additional snow may continue through Thursday afternoon, although the worst impacts should be done by then.

With the previous snowpack all but melted and widespread precipitation exceeding an inch across the Red River Basin expected, there is the low potential for minor flooding, particularly in the southern Red River where cameras indicate more open water. In fact, Red River gages are showing some river rises occurring at Halstad and Hickson. Minor flood stage may arise at some locations once this system is said and done, but HEFS probabilities for this are generally around 10%, so it is a low probability scenario.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 537 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Today part is pretty good, except will have quick increase in east winds as we head into the aftn and then gusty east winds 30-40 kts for a time this evening especially. Rain and rain to snow transition this evening, with timing of that for DVL, GFK, TVF and BJI kept about the same as prior forecast within that 01z-05z period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054. MN...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024.