textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with heat index values around 100 in the Red River Valley Wednesday.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Thursday, with 1 inch hail and wind gusts to 60 mph the main impacts expected.

..Marginal severe risk on Thursday

Many of the CAMs break out some convection along the MT/ND border Wednesday afternoon, then move it east Wednesday night. There is a low chance that some of the cells will be holding together by the time they reach far western Benson county early Thursday morning, but many of the model runs just have the convective complex decreasing in intensity. Whether we get any convective redevelopment in the afternoon along the trough axis will depend on how exactly the morning plays out. At this point, the 50th percentile has 1000-2500 J/kg of CAPE over all but our far northwestern counties Thursday afternoon, although deep layer shear is fairly mid, around 25 to 30 kts at most. Still, can't rule out some isolated severe cells so will continue with a marginal risk for Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions as a few sites still showing 6 miles visibility with some smoke, but only localized reports at this point. Could see some lowered vis due to smoke/fog later tonight and into tomorrow morning, although exactly when and where is uncertain. For now have KGFK going down to MVFR as they have the strongest signal in the model guidance, but other sites may also be impacted. All sites should be VFR by the end of the period, as light and variable winds start picking up out of the south to southwest, remaining below 10 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for NDZ008-016- 027-029-030-039. MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ001>004- 007.