textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms later today. Tornadoes, damaging wind, and large hail are all possible. A few tornadoes could be strong.

- Heat Advisory through 8pm this evening for the Southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota.

- Potential for heat impacts mid-week and into the Fourth of July weekend, along with chances for thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Today and tonight...the to main concern is severe weather from thunderstorms across most of the area with a secondary threat of heat across the southern part of the Red River Valley.

Starting with severe storms, damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible this afternoon into the evening. The most concerning aspect is the elevated values of low level helicity in the wrapped up triple point along and north of a surface low pressure system. Storms that form in this environment will have low cloud bases, and plenty of veering winds in the low level that will support a tornadic threat this afternoon and into the evening. A tornado watch was issued around 2pm through 10 pm. There could be multiple rounds of storms, so please make sure you are able to receive any warnings that are issued.

Meanwhile, a heat advisory continues this afternoon and this evening. The morning convection did temper temperatures a bit, the humid air mass will still support heat indices near 90 to 95 degrees. Temperatures will cool off this evening, and storm will exit to the north as drier air moves across the region overnight.

Tuesday through Sunday...The cooler and drier air will keep highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday, with a gradual warm up to the 80s the rest of the week. Thursday and Friday could see a few 90s across the Red River Valley.

Meanwhile, Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, but thunderstorm chances return for Thursday and the rest of the week as southerly flow advects increased moisture back across the region. Continued with the blended guidance which shows the highest thunderstorm chances Thursday night through Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Main concern today is for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, with a risk of large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. There is thunder in all the TAF sites, and we expect storms to develop this afternoon and last into the evening. There is some uncertainty with timing, but we've opted to prevail with a mix of VCTS & -TSRA for our sites. Additional AMDs may be necessary to fine tune TAF based on convective initiation.

Once the storms move through, expect west/southwest winds to develop and bring drier air across the region with VFR conditions, which will last into Tuesday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ039-053. MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-024- 027>032-040. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ009-017-024- 032.