textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- The first of two rounds of accumulating snow begins this evening, continuing into Thursday night. General 3-6 inches of accumulation will bring advisory impacts, currently forecast for areas along and south of a line from Jamestown to Bemidji.

- The second round of snow moves through Friday into Saturday. This system will be stronger than the first round, bringing an 80 percent chance for warning level impacts from accumulating snowfall greater than 6 inches.

..Second Round of Snow Friday Evening Through Saturday Afternoon

Looking into Friday and Saturday, the second upper low moves east and northeast into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest as it occludes and slows down slightly. As this inflection occurs, a period of heavy snow is likely along the northern and western side of the low. There will be plenty of moisture available for the second system as 1000mb to 850mb mixing ratios climb well into the 3- 4 g/Kg range as the system occludes just east of the CWA. This, along with good banding support, will allow for snowfall rates upwards of 1+ inches per hour at times. The main uncertainty with this second system will be residence time as the occlusion happens, and whether or not the overall forward movement of the system is impacted. A stronger inflection will allow higher totals upwards of the 90th percentile, or up to about 8"-10" of snow in some places. If we see faster movement, and a weaker inflection, there will be fewer bands and less residence time, thus supporting amounts closer to the 10th-25th percentile in the 3"-6" range. This will be in addition to the first system, not taking into account any compaction or melting. Much like the first system, temperatures will be near freezing or just below freezing Friday night, then climb slightly after sunrise on Saturday.

Overall potential storm totals (Tonight through Saturday), could range anywhere from 5" near Devils Lake, to a foot of snow in the Valley City area. It is worth noting that this will be a very heavy and wet snow due to the temperatures being relatively warm.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Snow and low ceilings will remain the two major impacts for the TAF period, with the site at greatest risk for visibility reductions due to falling snow being FAR. Based on current trends, it appears that a more southern solution of heaviest snowfall is occurring and thus heavier snowfall rates should remain south of most of our TAF sites. That said, most TAF sites will experience at least periodic reductions to MVFR visibilities with occasional IFR. Predominant MVFR/IFR visibilities are much more likely at FAR where snowfall duration and heaviest rates are most likely to be. There is the potential for a slight nudge northward that may cause impacts to make it to BJI and GFK as well, but this is looking less likely at this time.

What will impact all TAF sites is widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings. As of 06z, sites are hovering around 1000ft where the main system is and that will expand with time overnight. There is a chance for prevailing IFR but given the current sparseness of observations with more widespread MVFR, the TAF forecast features BKN010s. As observations come in, nudges closer to IFR may arise from amendments or the next routine TAF. Ceilings may improve tomorrow evening depending on cloud coverage, but expect cloud bases to remain very low just ahead of the next winter system which will once again bring flight categories back down once again.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for NDZ008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for NDZ024- 028>030-038-039-049-052-053. MN...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ002-003- 022-023-027>031-040. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for MNZ006-009- 016-017-024-032.