textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Blizzard conditions will impact much of the Red River Valley and points west today. Falling snow elsewhere will combine with gusty winds to reduce visibility on a more periodic basis.

- Widespread travel impacts are expected across much of eastern North Dakota and parts of northwest Minnesota today. Dangerously cold wind chills along and north of US Highway 2, combined with blizzard conditions, will lead to potentially life-threatening travel conditions.

- High winds will develop across the Red River Valley and west. Sustained northwest winds of 40 mph are expected, with occasional gusts up to 70 mph.

UPDATE

Issued at 1158 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Radar loop shows some more consistent snow pushing into the southern Red River Valley. Web cams and observations sites in the southern Red River Valley and near Fergus Falls have tanked with low visibility. Thus, expanded the blizzard warning to the South Dakota border on the ND side and included Wilkin and western Otter Tail counties in MN. Left the non-precipitation headlines as they are for now, but may need to extend the cold weather advisory based on wind chills tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 955 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Band of snow moving through southeastern ND brought visibility down to 1/4 mile, but has been back up above a mile as the heavier snow moves off. Visibility at Jamestown and Valley City further north inside the main snow band have yet to go down consistently to 1/4 mile or less. For now, advisory for southeastern ND where visibility is intermittently bad still seems reasonable. HREF keeps the 1/2 inch per hour snow rates north of I-94. For now will have headlines remaining as they are. Blizzard warning seems to be working well in the northern Red River Valley with vis down to 100 to 200 ft or even lower here at the office.

UPDATE Issued at 601 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Things have come together as forecasted in terms of blizzard ongoing 3-6 am in northeast ND and north RRV and increase in winds which have had with frequent gusts 50 to 65 mph in this area. Upper low itself has been developing a bit south of forecast and this may act to bring snow band a bit farther south into the far south valley where winter wx advisory is in effect (Wahpeton area). So this area will be monitored as this snow and wind moves into that area mid morning to see if severity of conditions would require an update to blizzard warning.

Fargo... the big wind and cold air push is right on the doorstep. Things will drastically get worse by 8 am.

..Synopsis

Things are starting to come together at 09z. Sfc low was over Grand Forks at 06z and at 09z was in between Fosston and Thief River Falls. Temps near and east of the low 32-35 degrees with light rain/drizzle TRF/Fosston area. The two low system which has been around this evening does seem to have become one low with the main one now in NW MN. I am not seeing the surface boundary on wind fields at the present westward into west central ND which had been there previous hours. 500 mb low as well is developing stronger now in central ND and starting to see more moisture wraparound it on the west end and also increased moisture and precipitation northeast part of the upper low in northeast ND. This upper low is forecast to move ESE into southwest or west central MN at 18z Thu. All this will put at least the northern valley and far northwest MN in a favored zone of snow on the north and northwest side of the upper low. ECMWF did increase moisture and NBM/WPC QPF and snowfall increased as well showing snowfall totals now thru Thursday afternoon more in the 3-6 inch range Grand Forks to Baudette.

From SPC meso page, 925 mb cold advection increasing southward and also seeing an increase in 925 mb winds in the Winnipeg area and north. HREF shows continued idea of a pocket of 55-60 kt 925 mb winds into the northern valley 10z to 15z and then over the central RRV 15-18z before diminishing a bit to 45 kts in the southern RRV 18z-21z. So all indications are that snow rates and winds will ramp up over northeast ND and especially the Red River valley thru dawn. Webcams and observations have shown that as well with 60 mph winds Belcourt ND area and 55 mph Bottineau and NDAWN wind gusts mid 50s mph north of Devils Lake. Vsbys at AWOS's as well in the north have been 1/4SM for about 1-2 hours as of 09z from Rolla to Cando, Langdon, Cavalier. Walsh county emergency management put out a public statement indicating vsby now 50 ft in the countryside.

Will not do any changes to the headlines. Still question on snow rates with residual snow band as it moves into SE ND and west central as models including the ECMWF which is stronger with snow this morning up north not having as much far south with around 1 inch. Also a tad less 925 mb winds south of Fargo.

Conditions improve rather quickly late afternoon from the west.

Friday...quick look shows next upper wave and surface low moving from central Alberta thru central Saskatchewan into Manitoba. Warm advection light snow band to move through daytime Friday, mainly northeast ND and far NW MN with accums up to 1 inch.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Visibility at our TAF sites ranging from 1 mile to 1/4 mile, that that will continue for much of the afternoon. Ceilings are still MVFR in some locations but does not really matter with the falling and blowing snow. North to northwest winds gusting above 50 kts in several locations and even above 35 kts in KBJI. Improvement to MVFR then VFR conditions later on this afternoon and evening as snow tapers off and winds decrease. Winds will shift around to the south and become gusty again by the end of the period. Some light snow will reduce visibility again at KDVL by mid-day, but kept it 1SM for now.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054. Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-026-027-030-054. High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ049-052- 053. Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ049-052- 053. MN...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ001>005- 007-008-013>015. Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ001- 002-004-005-007-008-013>015. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ006- 009. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ016- 017-022>024-027-028-031-032-040. High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ029. Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ029-030.