textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder pattern, but how far north and east the significantly warmer airmass reaches is highly uncertain due to snowpack. Unless we have sunny days and temps in the 40s in the snow areas melting will be more limited and thus warming less.

- Fog and/or low cloud potential exists, esp at night and early morning especiallly near the snow and snow-free interface where a temperature gradient will exist.

UPDATE

Issued at 722 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Clearing of low clouds has made it past Bemidji and Wadena so with that any chance of freezing drizzle has ended. So remove fzdz from the fcst this morning. Did expand fog area a bit southeast and east toward the Red River based on satellite. Did SPS for fog area and so far seems reasonable as for vsbys has varied.

UPDATE Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Low clouds are clearing eastward with clearing line west of Roseau to just east of Thief River Falls to west of Wadena. Clouds are upstream however and will move southeast into NW MN this morning. Cloud batch also from Manitoba into parts of NE ND at 08z. These clouds coming in from Manitoba are not the low stratus as what is clearing out in our eastern areas. Clear area over much of E ND and fog development is occurring, focused now in DVL basin but it may spread southeast as well as winds go light as it clears out and temps drop, as the milder airmass is holding still in central ND. Thinking fzdz risk is lowering now after having inserted mention for the early morning in eastern fcst area where ceilings are 1000 ft or lower. But vsbys have no improved all areas to P6SM to 10 SM. So may be able to remove any chance soon.

..Warmer with Fog

With warmer air advecting in over a still cold snowpack, fog will become a problem through the rest of the week. Thursday morning in particular could be a day for more widespread fog as a stronger push of WAA works into the region. Of course, fog will play a critical role in high temperature forecasts. On the flip side, the March sun angle is much higher, which should burn off fog faster then when we see these same types of patterns set up in November, December or February. A reasonable expectation through Saturday is that there will be fog somewhere within the FA every morning. As for who, how long it lasts, or how widespread it becomes, those pieces of the puzzle are all more uncertain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 722 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Fog in the DVL region to start today, 1/4 to 1SM. Should burn off mid morning. Wouldnt be shocked to see some fog reach into GFK by mid morning as skies clear as well and winds light. Overall the IFR ceilings have exited BJI area and what is coming down for today is VFR cloud ceilings in the 4000-6000 ft agl range. Tonight is a huge question mark, as models insist on developing widespread IFR and lower conditions in clouds and some fog, but confidence is as usual not high at this time.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.