textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of west central Minnesota and far southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota through 7pm.

- Precipitation chances increase Monday into Tuesday, with light snow possible as far south as Highway 2 and light rain or rain/snow mix in areas further south to I-94. Impact potential is highest along the International Border.

..Synopsis

The upper bounds of H5 ridging will continue moving across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today into Sunday. A sharp temperature gradient remains in place from north to south, with highs in the low 40s near the International Border to near 60 degrees in southeast North Dakota. Areas with warmer temps will see low RH values, as well as breezy conditions through late this afternoon, thus creating near critical to critical fire weather conditions. The elevated fire weather environment will subside as the afternoon progresses into the evening. Another warm and dry day is in store on Sunday as the ridge continues to the east. The driest conditions will be in west central Minnesota, where RH values could be in the 25 to 30 percent range, albeit with light winds.

Heading into next week, a more active weather pattern takes shape as shortwaves traverse the baroclinic zone along the International Border. Precipitation returns to the area Monday into early Tuesday, with the best chances for measurable precip being north of I-94. Temperatures will be supportive of snow along and north of Highway 2 as shown in the most recent guidance. At this time, there is a 30 percent chance for 1 inch of snow along Highway 2, which increases to nearly 80 percent along the International Border.

After a relatively quiet day on Wednesday, another H5 low is set to move across the northern CONUS on Thursday. Ensemble agreement has been quite strong with the development this system; with the primary uncertainty being the ptype. At this time, temperature profiles support mostly rain as the low tracks over the area; however, there are a few scenarios that bring the low further south, allowing colder air to flow further south and favoring a slightly better chance for snow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, with only passing high level cirrus. The main low level jet and stronger surface low have shifted south and a weak frontal zone has pushed into our region resulting in winds decreasing around or below 12kt and shifting to the northeast, and winds eventually should remain below 10kt the rest of the evening/overnight period after sunset. Weak surface high pressure passes through the region keeping lower winds in place through midday Sunday, with winds eventually shift back to the west-northwest by late afternoon as another weak cold front push into the region.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ052-053. MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ024- 027>032-040.