textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Exception for Friday, temperatures above normal into next week.

- Multiple chances for wintry weather over the next 7 days, but predictability and confidence remains low beyond Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Low clouds hanging on in the far east fcst area from Baudette to Park Rapids. Movement of the cloud elements are north-northwest as 925 mb winds behind last evenings upper wave. Winds at 925 mb do turn more westerly 18z-00z so do expect clearing of these low clouds eastward. Otherwise high clouds moving eastward. Temps warm western edge of the RRV and points west with a west wind and temps in the 30s, while near calm winds eastern side of the RRV where temps are coldest in the teens. Temperatures for the upcoming day appear on track with forecast and cold front timing tonight hasnt changed from 06z model data.

..Long term

500 mb flow turns more westerly Sunday-Monday. There has been evidence in ensmebles of a wave/sfc low moving east along the Intl borfder Monday or Monday night. This has been variable model to model with GFS a bit more consistent. But even GEFS is split 50/50 on if there is any precip this period and if so it may be more north of the border. NBM came in with low pops and slight chc -sn Monday night. Mid week (Wed) has shown also in long range models and ensembles some possible system moving northeast out of the Southwestern US but track of this dependent on degree of troughiness and ridging into the Great Lakes. Most scenarios keep the ridge east a bit flatter and thus a more track toward Nebraska, Iowa region but this remains low confidence as track dependent on position of 500 trough and ridge. The WPC has a generic 5-10 pct chance of minor (advisory) impacts mid next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

BJI area will see clearing of the low clouds but it will take til the 16-18z period to do so. Otherwise high clouds moving thru the rest of the area. West winds 10-20 kts. Cold front dropping south and sharp turn to north-northwest winds this evening and overnight gusts to 30 kts. Put in some -sn overnight for GFK, FAR and TVF. Kept vsby P6SM. Expect an area of MVFR cigs to spread south overnight.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.