textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous wind chills remain at times through Sunday morning, as low as minus 45.

UPDATE

Issued at 1158 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Surface observations continue to indicate very light snow/flurries within northwest and west-central MN. Upstream in western ND, additional area of light snow/flurries accompanies weak forcing from incoming shortwave trough.

With gradual increase in low level moisture ahead of this wave today into tonight, added flurries to the forecast during this time frame.

Regarding the hazardous cold, latest guidance from both 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS show probability for -40F is less than 50% along and south of I-94 corridor. With this in mind, opted to convert portion of the Extreme Cold Warning to Cold Weather Advisory along I-94 corridor. We could still see some locations just touching -40F at times Sunday morning within the southern Red River Valley, but still opting to retain the Extreme Cold Warning for locations that have higher chance at seeing wind chills deeper into the 40s below zero more consistently/widespread.

UPDATE Issued at 544 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Mid clouds over E ND and spreading slowly eastward into MN. Very eastern fcst area (Bemidji-Park Rapids) around 30 below air temp at 11z and winds calm. In cloudy areas temps have held in the teens below zero. Wind chills in the advisory range. Discussed in the NPW product about wind chills being out of the warning range for a time today into this evening but back into warning range overnight into Sunday AM. This was for the extreme cold warning area.

..Wind chills

The core of the coldest air is moving out as sfc winds have shifted to the south 5-10 kts and expect this to continue today. In addition there is mid clouds moving thru the area this morning into afternoon in zone of warm 925-850 mb warm advection.

With clouds over E ND and RRV temps reached low point in the mid evening Friday night and have been rising or steady since. With winds overall light 4-8 mph wind chills in most all areas are out of warning range, and with warmer sfc temps today expectation is for all areas to see considerably less cold wind chills this aftn/eve before colder air returns southward late tonight into Sunday morning. How to handle the break in dangerous wind chills was discussed. To avoid confusion, in areas that will see warning criteria or close to it return tonight into Sun AM kept extreme cold warning going though daytime today will not see sub 40 below wind chills. Now for areas Bemidji to Park Rapids current fcst wind chills thru Sunday do not show them returning to close to warning range thru Sunday, and in fact with lighter winds in that area even tonight, wind chills spend most of the time in the -20s. Confidence was high enough in BJI/PKD area to go just advisory 18z Sat to 18z Sun. Kept warning going this morning as temps are near 30 below and any wind will easily push wind chills to -40.

500 mb short wave trough drops south thru the area this evening, exiting late tonight. Consensus of neighboring offices was to include a mention of flurries with this short wave trough as there is some weak lift in the 700 mb cloud layer.

Beyond Sunday we will remain on the cold side of normal into mid next week but highs will be above zero and wind chills most periods out of advisory or warning range. Upper wave, weak sfc low moving southeast from NE Manitoba into NW Ontario will bring a period of very light snow to Kenora, Dryden Ont area Monday afternoon. This may brush far northeast fcst area and later shifts may need to add a low pop. Another weak wave Wednesday may bring a chance for flurries or light snow to central ND and again later shifts may need to add some low pops for this. Neither of these look to impact travel.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR and MVFR conditions are forecast within the TAF between thorugh 18Z Sunday.

Overall, conditions will be VFR through 00Z. After 00Z, the chance for ceilings to dip into MVFR increases, which was included in TAFs. This also brings chance for light snow to reduce visibility between 4-6SM range between 00Z-12Z. Winds will be 5-10kt out of the south and southwest this afternoon, before turning light and variable then turning out of the north around 7-12kt generally after 06Z.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-054. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for NDZ038-039-049- 052-053. MN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for MNZ001-002- 004>008-013>015-022. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ003-009-016- 017-023-024-027>032-040.