textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- A stronger weather system moves in for Monday/Tuesday. A widespread soaking rain is expected with most locations having a 60-90% chance for greater than 1 inch of rain across much of of eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 523 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Clouds are making progress clearing eastward with drier air moving in as winds turn a bit more southwest and then eventually west. Dew pts in the low 40s in KDVL. Meanwhile low clouds and some fog continues from Roseau to Fargo to Forman ND. But this too will continue to gradually clear eastward. The airmass in the clearer air is for the most part drying fast enough to prevent widespread fog. There is fog though in the moist airmass in west central into north central MN with vsbys 1 mile or less. Adjusted fog areas for the above.

Rainfall for Monday-Tuesday period is on track with NBM/WPC highlighting the area from near Bismarck up thru Grand Forks to Roseau/Baudette with an outlook for heavy rain potential.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Rain showers move into Northeastern Minnesota by this evening bringing dry conditions back to the region. A weak cold front tonight will bring some clearing to areas west of the Red River Valley allowing temperatures to cool into the 40s F with low to mid 50s F everywhere else Sunday morning. Surface high pressure moves in Sunday pushing out the clouds and bringing high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s F. High pressure (1020 mb) Sunday night will bring cooler temperatures in the 40s F across the region Monday morning.

Monday, a 500 mb wave begins to track across the Northern Plains bringing our next chance for precipitation. Southerly winds will advect in anomalously high moisture with PWAT values being >200% of normal. Southerly winds advecting in warmer air, high pressure to the north setting up a baroclinic zone, and potentially a deformation zone will provide the forcing for this precipitation. The weak low pressure system is expected to track generally along a line from Jamestown to Roseau, aligning well with the areas that can expect the heaviest rainfall. Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota currently have a 50-80% chance for getting greater than 1 inch of rain. Probabilities fall into the 10-30% range for 2 inches of rain, with those values being closer to the heaviest axis. Precipitation chances are expected to gradually decrease throughout the day Tuesday.

This rain is expected to bring drought relief but could cause issues as well. Slow moving showers with embedded thunderstorms in such a moist environment have the potential to cause isolated flooding. Due to this, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall. Severe storms are not expected. Heavy rain during harvest time will also impact agricultural activities.

The weather pattern for the middle to late week period is less certain but looks to be more benign with seasonable temperatures and limited precipitation chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Clearing of the low clouds continues to advance east. Just as the clouds clear there is a short period of fog until dew points drop and drier air moves in. That area at 12z is from near Crookston to just west of Fargo. Fog and low clouds continue east of this line with LIFR or VLIFR conditions west central MN up to Bemidji. Overall expecation is for gradual clearing eastward today is the low clouds. Timing of clearing in Bemjidji is uncertain but put it in for around 16z. Wind today will becoming west-northwest 7-10 kts. Some mid clouds from a separate wave moving into southeast/east central ND this morning. Winds to go light/variable this evening then southeast overnight as mid clouds move in in advance of our next system.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.