textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter impacts are expected across portions of the region Tuesday into early Wednesday. A winter storm watch remains in effect, with an 80 percent chance for advisory impacts and a 40 percent chance for warning impacts.

- Much colder temperatures are expected from Wednesday onward into the Weekend as part of a more active winter pattern.

UPDATE

Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Sentiments in previous Update remain valid. Mostly sunny skies will turn more cloudy as the afternoon into early evening continues. This will promote well above average temperatures, particularly within Minnesota.

Regarding the upcoming winter impacts, consensus from latest guidance is honing in on area to experience highest QPF/snow that will drive impacts. This paints a picture residing the southern Devils Lake basin, into the southern Red River Valley, and into west-central Minnesota.

Still expecting an influence of compaction/melting to occur since snow moves through our area during they daytime Tuesday, with most accumulation efficiency impacted by compaction/melting outside of moderate to heavy snow rates. This may lead to a scenario were light snow is falling, but accumulation is not occuring, especially on non-grassy surfaces. This scenario is most likely to occur generally along and north of the US Highway 2 corridor, with heavier snow rates able to compensate for compaction/melting to some degree.

Heavier snow rates greater 0.75 inches per hour will also drive impacts through reduced visibility to quarter mile, especially as these rates combine with gusty north winds leading to blowing snow. Once snow rates diminish, lingering blowing snow impacts are expected to wane due to relatively warm temperatures and sustained winds remaining below 30 mph (albeit some gusts around 40 mph are forecast within the southern Red River Valley).

UPDATE Issued at 652 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Clear skies this morning, so no major updates are needed in the immediate short term. Temperatures are mild, on either side of 30 degrees. This sets the stage for one last warm afternoon, with high temperatures in the 40s area wide, warmest in west central MN where a few 50 degree readings are forecast.

..Much Colder from Wednesday Onward

Temperatures become much colder from Wednesday onward into the weekend. North to northwest flow prevails Wednesday through Friday, with afternoon high temps only reaching the upper teens to low 20s. Additional surges of cold air will keep temps quite cold heading into the weekend, with occasional shortwaves bringing chances for light snow. Upper flow then becomes more northerly with strong ensemble support for a surge of arctic air along cross-polar flow heading into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through at least 08Z. After 08Z a winter system moves west to east through the region lowering ceilings into the MVFR and eventually IFR categories, while also reducing visibility 1SM or less. Sites like KDVL and KFAR may experience visibility down to 1/4SM for brief period late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon due to heavy snowfall rates and blowing snow - 40% chance this occurs. Winds will increase out of the north after 12Z Tuesday. Gusty north winds will linger beyond 18Z Tuesday.

Impacts from lowered ceilings and reduced visibility will extend beyond 18Z Tuesday, particularly at KGFK, KFAR, KTVF, and KBJI.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Storm Watch from midnight CST tonight through late Tuesday night for NDZ016-027>030-038-039-049-052-053. Winter Storm Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Tuesday afternoon for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054. MN...Winter Storm Watch from midnight CST tonight through late Tuesday night for MNZ001>003-006>009-013>017-022>024- 027>032-040.