textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditional risk for hail in the far southern Red River Valley into west-central Minnesota Friday afternoon.

..Friday conditional risk for hail

There is a signal in guidance of a low amplitude shortwave impulse moving through the base of the long wave trough over the Dakotas into Minnesota. At the surface, ascent may be localized through convergence near a west-east boundary near the tri- state area. Ensemble and high resolution guidance also reinvigorates instability near this boundary amid strong westerly winds aloft. While moisture is meager, weak instabilty and strong shear could allow some isolated low topped supercells tomorrow afternoon in the southern Red River Valley into west-central Minnesota with attendant hail risk. Given supercellular mode, hail could be to the size of golf balls if this scenario develops.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 943 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Overnight, winds will calm down to under 10 knots out of the west. Winds on Friday will pick back up out of the Northwest, becoming gusty by the afternoon. Clouds bases will remain VFR throughout the TAF period. There is some uncertainty if a cumulus deck ceiling forms Friday afternoon with bases around 5,000 AGL. At this time, predictability was too low to include a ceiling in the TAF, so instead added a SCT deck. If a ceiling were to form Friday afternoon, the most likely terminals would be KDVL, KGFK and KTVF.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.

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