textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence chances for strong to severe storms through Tuesday night.

- Seasonable weather with daily highs in the 70s and low 80s this week.

UPDATE

Issued at 702 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Will maintain a 20 pop for -shra along the Manitoba border this morning as a few small showers remain. In the last 2 hours a t-storm did develop west of Minot and moving into that area, but confidence is very low how long its lasts as it moves east. But will wave Devils Lake area and then along the northern tier of counties in a low pop thru 17z to account for this activity.

No changes were made to the key messages from that was issued Sunday afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Mostly clear skies prevail heading into the overnight period, with only scattered mid level cloud cover along and just south of the International Border. Mid level smoke remains evident, with near surface smoke becoming possible overnight as calm winds prevail into Monday. Temperatures are in the 60s across the area.

..Synopsis

Zonal flow across the northern plains continues through the week with transient shortwave activity. The axis of greatest instability looks to mainly stay south of the area keeping only general thunderstorm chances for our forecast area, but cant rule out some strong to severe storms through the period. As the Hudson Bay low begins to break down later in the week by Thursday, Montana/Western ND ridging amplifies with decent latitudinal differences among cluster analysis and degrading synoptic flow agreement overall by Friday. Scenarios range from riding over the area to SW flow or zonal/WNW flow flow across the Canadian prairies and northern plains. While the confidence in the long term evolution of the pattern is shaky the chance for significant weather impacts through next weekend still appears low even with a spread in models.

Best chance in the near term for impacts will be via thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, but overall the environment is not terribly concerning from a severe perspective. Maybe just some heavy rain and lightning with gusty winds and small hail. Per cluster analysis chances for greater than 0.10" are 40% or less for any given spot in a 24 hour period through Thursday. Precip chances look to increase for next weekend but that will depend on the how the synoptic pattern unfolds.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 702 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Light winds today, variable direction under 10 kts. They should lean toward the northeast or east but could be any direction. VFR sky cover today with patches of mid and high clouds. Isolated shower or t-storm activity possible in parts of Devils Lake basin and SE ND thru the period but confidence is too low to mention in any prob30 group.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.