textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon through early evening over forested areas in north central MN. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions may continue in this area each afternoon this week. This is user requested based on dry fuels that are easy to burn in the forests at the moment.

UPDATE

Issued at 420 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Precipitation chances are done with for the early morning hours as the last of any showers or t-storms have exited Grant county MN. Area of storms intensifying though with frequent lightning thru northern St Louis county MN into Ontario where lightning is not welcome. It will get windy today, but overall after discussing with WFO Bismarck it is felt looking at BUFKIT soundings wind gusts near 40 mph and sustained around 23-28 mph. So just shy of wind advisory criteria for eastern ND and the Red River valley as we head into late morning and afternoon. Cooler air will drop south behind an upper low moving into NW Ontario today and with it some clouds and scattered showers and t-storms northern 1/2 of the area this aftn into the evening.

..Fire Weather

The primary areas of concern have been for forested areas of north central MN (Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Hubbard Counties) where drier fuels have increased vigilance from fire partners. There are indications that the continued dry weather is beginning to cure grasslands areas of ND and we'll be monitoring southeast ND in particular for the potential for fuels to become critical if rains do not alleviate conditions over the next 24hr.

Due to higher Td values in our area RH values have remain 38-45% despite higher temperatures this afternoon. Those RH values, combined with breezy conditions in place (gusts to 20 mph) and dry fuels have still resulted in near critical fire weather conditions in the areas of concern in north central MN. RH values will tend to be much more variable in the post frontal air mass Monday, especially with increasing cloud cover in the north, resulting in a large spread in potential RH values north to south (60% North to 35% south). It will be much windier Monday with west then northwest gusts 35 to 40 mph (highest in the Red River Valley and eastern ND). Due to the dry fuels and winds, near critical fire weather conditions are still anticipated for the areas of concern in MN.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be much milder, however Tds will be lower as well, and RH values of 35 to 45% are expected across the region (lowest towards central/southeast ND). Winds may not be as high as on Monday, however gust 25 to 30 mph could be expected in areas of concern in MN and we'll be monitoring for near critical to critical fire weather conditions day.

Due to the building ridge/increasing temperatures, without new rainfall alleviating fuels concerns we may continue to see near critical to critical fire weather conditions continue into next weekend and the areas of impact may begin to extend into parts of the Red River Valley and eastern ND.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 708 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Winds the main issue for today as a west then west-northwest wind increases over the area mid to late morning into the afternoon and evening. Peak wind gusts of over 30 kts look likely for all of eastern ND and into parts of NW MN this afternoon. Increasing clouds spreading southward may bring lower end VFR ceilings this afternoon into the evening areas along and north of Hwy 2. Scattered showers and t-storms as well along and north of Hwy 2.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.