textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for heat impacts this afternoon with heat indices in the 90s and 100s in eastern North Dakota and northwest into west- central Minnesota. - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Thursday, with 1 inch hail and wind gusts to 60 mph the main impacts expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Expanded the Heat Advisory for this afternoon across all of eastern ND as well as northwest and west-central MN. This is due to heat indices already into the upper 90s and low 100s area- wide. This is a result of higher than previously forecast dew points currently in place. Additionally, wet bulb globe temperatures into the "Extreme" (i.e. Level 5 out of 5) category are widespread across the region this afternoon, owing not only to high temperatures and humidity, but also mostly sunny skies and light winds.

UPDATE Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

One area of mid clouds in SE Manitoba generated a few t-storms that are starting to drift east over Angle Inlet so added some low pops there. Otherwise patchy ground fog but it is very patchy and low lying unlike yesterday.

Coord with WFO BIS and other offices and no changes from thinking yesterday afternoon regarding heat advisory headlines. Kept it out for the RRV Fargo on north as this is where heat indices will be confidently around 100.

..Marginal severe risk on Thursday

Many of the CAMs break out some convection along the MT/ND border Wednesday afternoon, then move it east Wednesday night. There is a low chance that some of the cells will be holding together by the time they reach far western Benson county early Thursday morning, but many of the model runs just have the convective complex decreasing in intensity. Whether we get any convective redevelopment in the afternoon along the trough axis will depend on how exactly the morning plays out. At this point, the 50th percentile has 1000-2500 J/kg of CAPE over all but our far northwestern counties Thursday afternoon, although deep layer shear is fairly mid, around 25 to 30 kts at most. Still, can't rule out some isolated severe cells so will continue with a marginal risk for Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Wildfire smoke is widespread across the region, although majority of which is aloft. There is still some smoke near the surface reducing visibility between 4SM-6SM range, and will continue to be the case this afternoon, as well as perhaps again tomorrow during the day.

Otherwise, winds are forecast to be south to southwest between 5kt-15kt. There is a low chance for widely scattered showers and storms in northeast ND between 00Z-12Z. After 12Z, chance gradually increase area-wide for showers and thunderstorms, peaking by 18Z. At this time, decided to leave out PROB30 group for this if it was beyond 12Z, mainly due to extent into the future. Subsequent TAFs are likely to have -TSRA / VCTS for tomorrow.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027>032-040.