textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Risk of severe storms tonight and Monday. All hazards are possible Monday.

- Heat Advisory in effect Monday: Noon to 8pm for the Southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota.

- Potential for heat impacts next week, including the Fourth of July weekend.

..Severe storm potential Monday

While there is a deft in features to help force thunderstorms to life today, much better forcing will come tonight and Monday as a surface low pressure deepens within the eastern Dakotas, propagating northward into Canada by Monday afternoon. Additionally, richer low level moisture (comprised of surface dew points in the mid to upper 70s) will likely overspread portions of eastern ND and northwest into west-central MN. This is also a result of the jet aloft overspreading these regions, increasing overall shear.

Latest guidance offers a couple of scenarios that could unfold:

1) Well developed severe storms move out of South Dakota into eastern ND traveling northeast. These storms would be capable of large hail (perhaps very large hail in excess of 2 inches) and gusty winds (perhaps very gusty winds up to 80 mph). These storms start elevated in altitude and nature, becoming more surface based into the afternoon. This would eventually introduce potential for tornadoes among other hazards like large hail and gusty winds. Given the very unstable airmass and strong shear, couldn't rule out strong tornadoes (EF-2+). Thunderstorms begin to exit to the north and east late afternoon into early evening.

2) Overnight thunderstorms within SD diminish before reaching ND, allowing a lull period in the morning. This is before robust thunderstorm development near the surface low that propagates north through our area by early afternoon. This activity will likely reach severe thresholds, potentially significantly severe - especially if storms can remain more discrete and surface based. This would keep large to very large hail and risk for tornadoes at the forefront of hazards, with an attendant isolated damaging wind risk as well. In this scenario, strong tornadoes again can't be ruled out (EF-2+).

Again, both scenarios hold the risk for tornadoes (potentially strong). At this time, relatively higher chance for tornadoes exists near and just ahead of the surface low within northeast ND to northwest MN during the afternoon.

Uncertainty still exists in overall convective evolution that would dictate storm mode as well as whether or not storms would be more surface based or elevated. More elevated storms would have a hail-forward hazard, whereas surface based storms would allow for all hazards.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

TAFS will become increasingly messy after 06z as ceilings plunge in MVFR and IFR. LIFR will be possible in KDVL and KBJI but is not a foregone conclusion (timing would be anywhere from 06z to 15z). Winds will be of lesser concern compared to ceilings and eventual thunderstorms on Monday (late morning through afternoon) with currently southeast winds becoming more easterly by 12z and increasing to 10-15kts around 18z with gusts as high as 25-30kts outside of thunderstorms (could gust over 50kts in that instance). Best guess on thunderstorm location is just that, a guess, but KDVL, KGFK, and KTVF look the most certain to see activity with greater uncertainty for KFAR and seemingly a lower threat overall for KBJI all together but wont rule it out.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for NDZ039-053. MN...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MNZ002-003-024- 027>032-040.