textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain is expected through the early overnight period over parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

- Temperatures fall back into the range of normal as we head into Wednesday, then remain near average through this weekend.

..Synopsis

Upper flow pattern supports northwest flow tonight through late Wednesday, with H5 flow turning more northerly heading into Thursday. A weak shortwave traverses the flow this evening and overnight, with a chance for light rain ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler air works into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday, bringing temperatures back into the range of normal for early to mid November. Daytime highs will be in the 30s to low 40s Wednesday and in the 30s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows fall into the teens Thursday night into Friday morning. Aside from a few scattered rain showers today, dry weather is expected to persist through much of the forecast period.

Looking down the road a bit, there is growing support for a potentially active period of weather as we head into the second half of November. This starts with a strong signal for blocking across the central CONUS and into most of the Canadian Prairies. Resultant troughs form on either side of the H5 ridge, which eventually dislodge and work eastward. Ensemble clusters are beginning to support solutions that hint at precipitation toward the very end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Light rain showers are still in place over parts of eastern ND and northwest MN, with VFR conditions currently prevailing. Rain should taper off as the main upper wave moves east- southeast of the region. A period of MVFR is likely during the morning hours behind the passing cold front mainly in north central MN towards KBJI and central ND towards KDVL, with less certainty in ceilings in far eastern ND/northwest MN. Current guidance favors VFR prevailing at KGFK and KFAR through the afternoon, then additional MVFR stratus potentially developing again across northeast ND and northwest MN during the evening(increasing chances for impacts at KGFK and KTVF after 00Z).

Winds are shifting to the north-northwest and may be gusty at times during the daytime period Wednesday (likely to remain below 30kt unless there is substantial clearing in the afternoon).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.