textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures are forecast this weekend into next week. This will greatly erode existing snowpack. Snowmelt and potential for upcoming precipitation brings a medium chance for minor riverine flooding.

- Unsettled weather pattern starts today lasting into next week, bringing chances for precipitation, and perhaps a few thunderstorms. There is also a 30 percent chance for advisory level winter impacts next Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 952 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Dense fog continues across the region this morning. Based on drier air moving in on the backside of the main surface low over southeast North Dakota, the expectation is the expectation that eventually we should see improvements, however current trends indicate this should continue for the remainder of the morning. As such, the Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded and extended through noon.

Marginally strong thunderstorms are moving in from the James River Valley and with MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg, small hail may arise late this morning in the Sheyenne River Valley. This should remain the main hazard alongside lightning as storms will remain elevated through the morning.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas of dense fog continue to spread east this morning along a warm front. Visibility observations range from 1/4 mile to 1 mile across much of the area. Expanded the dense fog advisory to cover areas of fog through 10am.

UPDATE Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Worst visibility from obs and web cams still mostly in the Devils Lake basin down our western counties and the Red River Valley near the SD border. Further north across the central and northern Red River Valley as well as into MN, more drizzle/rain as seen on web cams, and vis has been mostly above 2 miles. Will continue to keep the dense fog advisory as it is for now, and will see what happens when the low level lift bringing the drizzle moves off to the northeast later tonight.

Further out, not too many changes to what we have going. Still looking like some light showers tomorrow, and some light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday. NBM ensemble has backed off a bit from day shift run on wintry precipitation for Friday. Probabilities for anything over an inch are around 20 percent and warning level snow probs look minimal. However, there is still a cluster of around 17 percent of the ensemble that has a deeper trough and can't completely rule out winter impacts quite yet. Will keep the key message we have going.

..Unsettled weather pattern ahead

Ensembles continue to agree in the upper pattern remaining in this southwesterly and quasi-zonal flow regime through at least the end of the work week. While ensembles have some disagreement in synoptic evolution of shortwave troughs, there are a few periods of note that increase our relative chances for precipitation. These periods are tonight into Sunday, Tuesday, and late next work week.

For tonight/Sunday, there is a noteworthy amount of warm air in the mid layers effectively capping much available instability for more robust convection. Additionally, strongest low/mid level forcing for ascent to potentially overcome capping will remain displaced to the south and east of our area. Thus, expecting mainly scattered showers with perhaps some embedded thunder forced by vorticity advection from the heart of the shortwave trough itself.

There is still expectation of subsequent shortwave troughs to bring their own waves of instability within their warm sectors, but still more likely to be largely displaced from our area. However, convection fed by this warm sector may be within our area, introducing thunderstorms into the forecast.

Most ensemble guidance generally agrees that more significant precipitation amounts over 2 inches will remain well to our east within eastern MN into WI. Still, there is a low to medium chance for 1-2 inches within Minnesota and locations north of US Highway 2 by end of the work week.

The late week shortwave trough passage may feature cold enough air for some of its precipitation to be snow, of which may be enough to accumulate. As we inch closer to this period, ensemble guidance is starting to cluster toward a scenario that features heavy snow in the eventual system's deformation zone. This could overspread portions of our area, including accumulating snow more than 6 inches. This may also coincide with gusty winds to introduce impacts from blowing snow into this scenario.

While there is the potential for warning level impacts from accumulating snow of 6 or more inches and blowing snow, details on placement and timing remain very much unknown. This keeps chance for warning impacts around 10%, with chance for advisory impacts around 30% at this time.

...Warm temperatures and eroding snowpack brings chance for riverine flooding...

Due to the extended period of well above freezing temperatures over the next several days, confidence for a greatly eroding snowpack is high. There remains widespread frozen and/or saturated soils, with several areas still seeing standing water in open fields (as seen from webcams and satellite imagery). This lends confidence that existing water content within the snowpack will largely runoff into rivers/tributaries.

The current water content within the snowpack isn't overly high (up to 1.2 inches), and alone will likely not push rivers/tributaries into flood stage. However, the combination of this occuring with upcoming chances for additional precipitation introduce a medium chance for minor riverine flooding. Additionally, phasing of snowmelt-driven increased flow within tributaries and main stem Red River may phase with each other in the central Red River Valley.

For these reasons, additional river flood watches have been issued.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions are widespread across the area this morning, with all TAF sites seeing low ceilings and visibility, mist, and fog. These conditions are expected to persist through around 15Z, however, improvement will be quite slow as moisture and temperatures continue to rise in response to a warm front. Rain chances increase from southwest to northeast starting just after sunrise, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms through mid afternoon. Winds will increase slightly through the day, with a slow shift from south to northwest by late this evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for MNZ001>009-013>017- 022>024-027>032-040.