textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Risk of severe storms starting Saturday late afternoon in northeast ND and expanding eastward Saturday night with periodic severe storm chances Sunday and Monday. All hazards are possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 710 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Widely scattered weak thunderstorms and showers in northwest Minnesota should start to diminish before sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Main hazard with this activity has been intermittent lightning activity.

The chance for hazardous weather tonight is very low. No impacts are forecast tonight into Friday morning - the only possibility for hazardous weather is a low chance for fog in portions of lakes country within west-central MN as well as far northern Red River Valley early morning Friday.

..Severe chances Saturday through Monday

Southwesterly flow aloft and troughing in the lee of the Northern Rockies will allow south to southeasterly winds to bring warm, moist air into our region. Various shortwaves are expected to come out into the Plains ahead of the main trough axis, but timing of each individual impulse is unknown at this point. The ridge axis will still be fairly close to our area on Saturday during the day, with one shortwave not expected to come out until late. CAPE in our western counties is expected to climb to near 1500 J/kg, with deep layer bulk shear around 30 kts. With the forcing not coming out until later and better instability and shear to the west, think much of the daytime hours should be fairly quiet with less than 10 percent chance for thunderstorms to develop. Main impacts will come later Saturday night as a thunderstorm complex that forms over eastern MT gets close to our area. Big question is if that complex will be severe as it moves into our western counties. Elevated CAPE and shear will be increasing throughout Saturday night, so definitely possible although not certain. Depending on how Saturday night plays out, Sunday has the potential to have even better potential for severe storms with CAPE over 2000 J/kg possible and deep layer shear in the 45 to 50 kt range. There is also the surface trough axis which should be moving east into the Dakotas at that point. Many of the models have an even stronger surface low arriving for Monday, and there will still be a lot of instability and deep layer shear to work with. Much will depend on how previous rounds of convection play out, but there is at least some potential for back to back rounds of severe weather late this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

There is a low chance for fog at KBJI between 09Z-13Z. Confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs at this time.

Friday, overall cloud cover will be increasing, although confidently staying VFR. Some light rain will accompany these clouds Friday. There is very low chance for lightning associated with this activity.

Winds will be light and variable tonight, becoming predominantly out of the south around 10kt after 15Z Friday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.