textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 30 percent chance tonight for some mixed precipitation and travel impacts from a light glaze of ice, mainly along and north of Highway 200.

- Another round of a light wintry mix or snow Christmas Day through Friday, with a 20 percent chance for advisory level impacts.

..Christmas Day system

The deterministic models are all over the place for how they handle the trough moving somewhere through the Northern Plains late Christmas Day into Friday. While there is pretty good agreement on the overall pattern of troughing over the western CONUS and ridging in the Plains becoming more southwesterly, the subtle differences in weak lead shortwaves still have low predictability. Best signals for precip from the ECMWF EFI are either south or north of our counties, so not expecting anything heavy but even some light mixed precip could cause impacts. NBM probabilities across northeastern ND and northwestern MN are about equal for snow and freezing rain Thursday evening, but numbers are low at 15 to 20 percent. Will continue to mention low chances for mixed precip in grids and HWO, but not confident enough to include any graphics at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

MVFR looks likely for most (minus Fargo which is less certain) as cigs drop near to below IFR thresholds locally as flurries move across the area tonight with a deck of low stratus. Winds turning NW to SE over the next 18 hours with a period of gusty winds for DVL, GFK and TVF yet tonight. Currently seeing NW winds of 20kts gusting 30kts with these expected to end by around 12z. Flurries will be light and unlikely to reduce visibility past 5SM. IFR while possible as late as the 15z timeframe was to low confidence for any single terminal and thus have capped the worst of conditions at low MVFR for now but this will need to be monitored and potentially amended at a later time.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.