textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional chances for thunderstorms exist over the holiday weekend, with a level 1 out of 5 chance each day. The main impacts for any storms that become severe will be ping pong ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph.

..Marginal severe chances tonight, tomorrow and Monday

Some MU CAPE still around, but SPC mesoanalysis page has a lot of CIN with the mixed layer CAPE. Most of the CAMs don't have much over eastern ND until later tonight when the shortwave over WY comes northeast, but given recent poor performance do not have much trust in their solutions. There will be plenty of MU CAPE again overnight, although bulk shear will be fairly modest around 30 kts. Some convection could be ongoing tomorrow morning, with HREF showing a low probability of strong updraft helicity tracks in west central MN. Another shortwave coming through could bring more thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon and evening, although much will depend on how the morning activity plays out and if the atmosphere recovers. Better shear looks to be in store for Monday, although instability is more uncertain. At this point, can't rule out an isolated instance of hail up to ping pong balls or 60 mph winds through the rest of the holiday weekend, but confidence in exactly when and where is low.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Tricky forecast overnight, as several pieces of model guidance try to develop low stratus/fog in pockets of the region. Being that this seems to be lower confidence scenario, decided to maintain VFR conditions throughout the overnight and morning hours. The other potential hiccup in these TAFs is shower/thunderstorm development Sunday morning. Model guidance is all over the place in the timing and placement regarding where (or even if) anything develops Sunday morning. Therefore, no PROB30s were added for TSRA at this time. There does seem, at least later in the TAF period, indications that thunderstorm activity will become more widespread. Since this is the last few hours of the TAF period and beyond later into Sunday evening, decided to keep any mention out of the TAF at this time. However, future TAF issuance's will likely need to include TSRA in some form after about 22z Sunday at KDVL, and after 0z elsewhere.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.