textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow continues across eastern ND and northwest MN tonight, with visibilities below 1 mile at times and slick travel conditions.

- Another wave sweeps through Friday with a chance for 2-4 inches of snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 1016 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The main 700 MB low pressure center is now east of our region, however large scale synoptic ascent within cyclonic flow on the back side of the trough is maintaining a larger area of light (to locally moderate) snowfall across eastern ND and northwest/west central MN. Ground temperatures are dropping and locations where melting was occurring previously are accumulating and slick roads are being reported across a larger portion of our area. Latest CAMs (particularly the HRRR) are doing a better job of handling the slower exit of light accumulating snow, and support this continuing through 06Z (1 AM) in ND and potentially lingering in northwest MN through 9-11Z. Around 1 inch of additional snowfall (pockets of 2" in MN) can be expected, though this won't be uniform. Considering these trends I went ahead and extended the ND advisories and warnings through 1 AM matching the expiration of the MN counties.

Some consideration may eventually be given to extending the MN counties, however there should be drier/stable air eventually spreading in at that point and the chance for more than flurries or a light dusting may have decreased. We'll monitor trends and see if this is finally breaking up at that time.

UPDATE Issued at 718 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Widespread light snow continues across the region, with pockets of moderate to locally heavy snow slowly weakening. While ground temperatures continue to play a role in limiting accumulations additional light accumulations can still be expected through mid evening in ND, with a better chance for 1-3" in northwest MN as light accumulations may linger longer into the evening (thorugh 1am) as the 700 MB low transitions east. This is reflected in latest trends in CAMs and the decision was made to exerted the advisory and warning in ND through 03Z (10 PM) and in northwest MN through 06Z (1 AM).

..ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY

A clipper will sweep through the region from west to east Friday. Warm air advection ahead of this clipper is very weak, so not much in the way of additional accumulating snowfall is likely from the first portion of this system. Still, at least some ascent will contribute to light snow showers.

As the cold front pushes through, this one possesses the greatest lift and thus provides for the strongest precipitation signal. Forward propagation of a line of snow is expected, and will likely remain perpendicular to the long axis. For this reason, significant snowfall accumulations are not expected to arise. Even if we see the reasonable worst case, which is 4 inches of snow, it is very likely that not all 4 inches will make it to the surface once again. At least expect some travel impacts as the cold front sweeps through. Winds associated with this are very weak so blizzard conditions will likely not develop.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

IFR to MVFR conditions continue across eastern ND and northwest MN due to widespread light snow. Snow is beginning to end from the northwest to southeast, and this will continue through 9-12Z (lingering longer in MN). IFR to MVFR ceilings linger after the snow ends and VFR chances do not return until the late afternoon Thursday over eastern ND and Thursday evening over much of northwest MN. Northwest winds 12-16kt will shift to the west-northwest and decrease through the day Thursday as surface high pressure builds east, becoming light and variable under the surface ridge Thursday evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ016- 026>030-054. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ038-039- 049-052-053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ001-002- 005-007-008-013>015. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ003-006- 009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.