textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler to start the week with highs in the 40s and 50s before 60s and 70s return Thursday onwards.

UPDATE

Issued at 911 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Winds have decreased with sunset and while it is still mild ahead of the approaching cold front temperatures have fallen enough that RH values are now above 25% decreasing the fire weather impacts. The Red Flag Warning was expired as scheduled.

The band of high based showers ahead of the approaching cold front have amounted to very little additional precipitation. The main DCAPE axis has been to the west, with low levels stabilizing. So, while there had been stronger gusts with some showers (and a few thunderstorms to the west and north) this threat has not translated into our northern CWA. Considering the very dry sub cloud mixed layer ahead of the main front I won't rule out a gust to around 40 mph with any stronger showers, but confidence is low in widespread impacts at this time.

..Synopsis

A shortwave will dig around Hudson Bay troughing this evening into eastern North Dakota/Minnesota with a cold front dropping temps from todays 70s to 40s and 50s for Monday highs. Tuesday will the cold day of the week with highs only in the 40s as the core of the 700mb air moves overhead with temps in the -16 to -18C range (basically arctic by May standards). Could see showers linger behind the front Monday and Tuesday but accumulations will be minimal if any. Riding then starts to build back in through the remainder of the week with highs slowly climbing back into the 50s and 60s by Thur/Fri and even some 70s by next weekend in the south. With these increasing temps will once again come the chance for near critical to critical fire weather but with a lack of signal from HDWI and ongoing green-up for most will not focus on that too much just yet.

-Current Red Flag/SPS

Early day concerns about a deeply mixed boundary layer with winds being efficiently transported to the surface leading to more widespread red flag conditions are being quelled. Winds east of the ND/MN state border are remaining manageable at 10-15 mph with gusts occasionally over 20 mph (RH does remain and widely 22-27%) so SPS seems to be reasonable. Further west across ND RH is similar, though winds are slightly stronger at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Overall this is currently marginal RFW conditions for ND but as RH drops another 3-5 points to near 20% this afternoon RFW will become an increasingly correct decision.

- Rain tonight

As a cold front rolls south tonight a few showers are expected though they will have to overcome the preceding deeply mixed and dry boundary layer. Despite this dry air hindrance hi-res ensembles like the HREF and RRFS both show high probs for areas from Hallock to the Red Lakes to see > 0.10". Most areas outside this will only see a shower or two and maybe a couple hundredths from them. Overall while it will be a "wetting rain" it wont do much to quell fire weather concerns later in the week.

Additional chances for critical fire weather conditions arise later this week. Persistent northwesterly flow continues to contribute to downsloping and dry airmasses over our region, so days with increasing temperatures will bring an increased risk for critical fire conditions. The main question marks will be wind speeds which do appear likely to meet thresholds of concern for fire late next week with fuel status also remaining critical. ERC percentiles are still largely high though HRB is beginning to respond to green-up so fire spread may become inhibited. At this time, Thursday and Friday appear to have the greatest likelihood for critical fire weather conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND, with better chances for MVFR ceilings during the Monday morning hours across northwest MN. A cold front is currently moving through the region with high based light showers and shifting winds from the southwest to north- northwest. Winds speeds will vary, with a period of stronger gusts around 30kt immediately behind the front, dropping off before sunrise, before increasing from the northwest through Monday afternoon. VFR conditions and decreasing northwest winds (below 12kt) are expected Monday evening across the region.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.