textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased fire weather concerns for today and Thursday, including periods of critical fire weather conditions.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms late this afternoon into evening within portions of eastern North Dakota. An additional level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms exists Thursday afternoon in Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Scattered showers have formed on the periphery of a low-level jet max. Occasional lightning and severe wind gusts have been observed, but these appear to be fairly sparse at this time. There is the potential for this to push into the Sheyenne River Valley over the next 1-2 hours bringing the risk of severe wind gusts. More organized forcing remains upstream closer to the vort max in western South Dakota, but that should also be pushing north this evening and overnight. At this point, the greatest chance for severe storms is between 7 PM and 12 AM.

On the fire side, brief increases in relative humidity are ongoing along a tongue of increase dewpoints, however lower dewpoints are expected to replace them over the next few hours. Having said that, diurnal cooling should increase relative humidity values towards 50% or greater overnight. Winds will continue through the overnight period, so elevated fire concerns will continue through tomorrow.

..Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms

Late this afternoon into evening, there is a medium chance for thunderstorms within eastern ND, generally between 7pm to Midnight. These storms may be capable of bringing gusty winds to 60 mph with the help of a very well mixed boundary layer and strong winds in the low to mid portion of the cloud bearing layer. A few instances of small hail up to 1 inch may also accompany these storms.

Getting into Thursday, a 'dryline-like' frontal feature pushes through the area during the day across the region. By peak daytime heating, the front is forecast to be within Minnesota. Forcing for ascent along the front may be enough to spark isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon within portions of Minnesota, more likely to be east of the Highway 59 corridor. Sufficient shear and instability will allow for potential of hail to 1 inch and gusty winds to 60 mph. There is also still potential for a brief tornado as low level moisture/instability as well as favorable shear for low level rotation and venting aloft remains advertised by a subset of CAMs.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Scattered showers this evening may bring gusty and erratic winds, with the potential for gusts to exceed 50 knots. These should be fairly isolated so the probability of TAF site impacts is low. Occasional lightning may develop with some showers as well, but should remain very isolated. VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight period with winds remaining elevated and shifting clockwise towards more southerly and southwesterly through late tomorrow morning. Around BJI, lowering ceilings are expected to develop with MVFR ceilings prevailing through the afternoon. Winds will shift to westerly through the afternoon and increase to sustained winds around 20-30 knots, with gusts approaching 40-45 knots at times. The front should be through most TAF sites (with the exception of BJI) towards the end of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ049-052- 053. MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ017-024- 028>032-040.