textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas south of the Highway 200 corridor will see a break in the winds starting this evening. However, north of Highway 200 the winds will continue to gust above 40 mph overnight producing blowing dust. Wind advisory continues for that area into Friday.

- Dry conditions along with the winds will bring critical fire weather conditions through today and tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all counties through Friday evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 710 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Several updates were made as of early this evening.

First, the blowing dust warning in the central Red River Valley is being allowed to expire on time. Conditions have greatly improved in this area as winds decreased late this afternoon. The blowing dust advisory across the southern Red River Valley and adjacent portions of west central MN is also going to be allowed to expire on time.

The next area of dust is advecting in from the west with a cold front, overspreading the Devils Lake Basin and entering the northern Red River Valley. Visibilities have quickly dropped from over 6 miles to a mile or less as this batch of dust arrives, with KGFK going from 10 SM to 2 SM visibility over the past 20 minutes. Therefore, the blowing dust advisory was extended in time until 10 PM for northeastern ND and the northern Red River Valley. The big questions as we go into tonight are 1) how strong the winds remain as the boundary layer decouples and 2) how much blowing dust continues. Neither of these questions are clear cut, as the strongest CAA is overspreading the region right now (which would favor winds decreasing a bit later), and the strongest winds aloft to mix down do not arrive until after sunset (which is a poor time for max momentum transfer to occur). If we are able to tap into these winds overnight, there is a scenario where blowing dust continues to some degree throughout the night. These trends will be monitored as we go over the next couple of hours to determine how to handle headlines from here.

And briefly - a few gusts upstream in Rugby and Rolla have breached high wind criteria. As of right now, heading into the less diurnally favorable time of day to mix those higher gusts down, there are no plans to change wind headlines.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Strong upper low rotating over Saskatchewan will move east tonight. The surface low will continue to move slowly across southern Canada, with the trough axis currently extending down into eastern ND moving off into MN. Pressure gradient in our western counties is starting to relax just a bit as the trough axis comes in, but plenty tight in northwestern ND close to the surface low. The strong southerly winds that are bringing our blowing dust and dropping vis close to a quarter of a mile in some spots will decrease a bit late this afternoon. Behind the through axis, there will be a decent pressure gradient along with some cold air advection. Model soundings have mixing all the way up to 700mb, and although the jet is not quite as strong, there is plenty of momentum to mix down. Winds at least across the northern portions of the CWA will pick up again tonight and tomorrow, with probabilities of wind gusts over 40 mph at 50 percent along and north of I-94 and 80 to 100 percent along and north of Highway 2. Extended wind advisory for all but our southern and eastern counties through tonight and tomorrow.

While definitely could see another day of blowing dust this afternoon into Friday, this time from the west instead of the south, confidence in exactly where and how low visibility will go is uncertain. Most likely will be expanding the blowing dust advisory into Devils Lake Basin and upper Sheyenne in addition to the RRV through 00Z as the west winds start coming in this evening. Will wait and see if any more dust products are needed beyond that tonight and tomorrow. The west winds will bring even lower RHs, as current values are around 20 percent. There will be a little bit of recovery tonight as RH values come up into the 40 and 50s, but fire danger will remain high. Afternoon RH values in all of our area should get down to 20 to 25 percent. Winds will be 20 to 25 mph even outside of the wind advisory area. Thus, expanded the Red Flag warning to all of our counties from now until 9 pm tomorrow.

Will finally see a break in the wind on Saturday as surface high pressure builds in behind the departing low. Southwesterly flow aloft sets up for Sunday with a lead shortwave trough coming out. The main surface low seems like it will be over SD/MN/WI Sunday into Monday, with better moisture over our area than the current system. The ECMWF EFI has a decent signal for some precipitation, and NBM has a over 60 percent chance CWA-wide for over a quarter of an inch of rain. There is even 50 to 60 percent chance of over an inch of rain by 06Z Monday across portions of southeastern ND and west central MN. Some of the ensembles have some instability creeping into our far southeastern counties Sunday afternoon, although others keep even elevated CAPE under 500 J/kg. Plenty of deep layer shear though, so will have to watch for any severe thunderstorm chances that day.

The main upper trough finally moves out into the Plains for the first part of next week, eventually becoming more northwesterly again by Thursday. Temperatures will be cooling down again back down below seasonal averages, with a few minor precipitation chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 710 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Blowing dust and high winds will significantly impact aviation operations, especially at KGFK, KDVL and KTVF. BLDU this evening will bring visibility of a mile or less. Overnight, winds will die down a bit, which leads to uncertainty in how visibility responds. TAFs show a general improvement overnight to MVFR/VFR visibilities. It should be stressed if winds stay higher, these visibility improves will likely not occur or not be as substantial as advertised. Winds will increase again Friday morning, this time out of the west. These strong winds will lead to another episode of BLDU, especially at KGFK, KTVF and KDVL. Again, there is uncertainty in how severe visibility reductions will be. In this set of TAFs MVFR to IFR visibilities were prevailed, but it should be stressed that it is possible that visibilities end up worse then the current TAF reflects.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-054. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Blowing Dust Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ049-052-053. MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MNZ001>005-007-008- 013>015-022-027. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MNZ001>009-013>017- 022>024-027>032-040. Blowing Dust Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001- 004-007. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ016-023- 028>031-040.