textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak surface low moving along the International border Saturday afternoon and evening, followed by a cold front. Less than 1 inch of new snow anticipated with this system in area with northwest winds 25-35 mph. Patchy blowing snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 1151 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Some of the CAMs start to bring in some showers as warm air advection starts to kick in as early as this afternoon. What radar returns that are in western ND do not seem at this point to be reaching the ground, but did include some low POPs in northeastern ND for a time later today. Higher confidence in fog developing, with high probabilities of a half or even quarter of a mile visibility across the Devils Lake Basin down into west central MN. Will include areas of fog in that region with patchy fog elsewhere, and will watch for any needed headlines.

UPDATE Issued at 939 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Clouds do not seem to be going anywhere anytime soon, so increased sky cover for the day. Still getting some light BR in down to 3 miles in portions of our western forecast area, and will keep some patchy fog mention going mainly for blending with neighbors. Otherwise fairly quiet with temps in the teens to los 20s.

UPDATE Issued at 532 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Low clouds over the forecast area. Front has passed thru all areas with a northwest wind 8 to 15 kts. Some light fog remains in a few areas, but generally 3SM or above vsby. Not expecting a lot of change thru today....some clearing holes may well develop or move in from Manitoba, but best bet is to continue more pessimistic route in regards to clearing.

..Weekend

Initial short wave moves east thru far southern Canada Saturday with weak surface low moving east as well. This sfc low to be near Minnesota/Ontario border Saturday evening with a northwest wind and colder air moving in behind it over the fcst area Saturday night into Sunday. Initially any precip chances regulated to far northern areas of MN more tied to warm advection and near the sfc low track where wintry mix once again possible. Impacts from this dont appear to be advisory level. What is going on behind this system is a 500 mb low and trough which does move east and upper low is now following what the Canadian global model showed a few days ago as upper low/trough digs southeast thru North Dakota and into southwest or west central MN by late Sunday. So what appears to occur will be a period of light snow within the colder airmass Sunday. QPF is a few hundredths (NBM is near zero with WPC QPF showing a few hundredths likely better). Net result is half inch of snow maybe an inch with this system Sunday. Winds though dont appear to be that strong...with max cold advection and 850 mb wind max well southwest and south of the area to the west of the digging short wave. During the light snowfall Sunday data suggests sustained winds 20-25 mph gusts 30-35 mph. Putting these into the blowing snow table with 1 inch of new snow to blow shows 30-40 pct chance of low impacts with sporadic blowing snow vsby issues and 20 pct chance of advisory conditions in blowing snow (areas 1/2SM or below vsby). This would be in falling light snow or 0-3 hours after the snow falls. Would need the inch of new snow to blow...if half inch the percentage chances of impacts drop further.

Brief cold air surge Sunday into Monday with weak clipper type system moving thru Manitoba into northern MN late Monday/Tuesday followed by a larger, longer lasting cold airmass mid to late next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1151 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

IFR ceilings at all TAF sites, and KDVL is even down to LIFR. Could see a few sites come up to MVFR briefly this afternoon or evening but overall IFR to LIFR should continue through much of the period. Visibility so far is mostly in the 3-5SM range, but expect some fog formation later tonight. Best probabilities for visibility half mile or under is mainly over our western and southern forecast area. Thus have KDVL and KFAR dropping below 1 mile vis for a time late tonight into tomorrow morning. Some models are calling for 1/4 mile, but not confident enough to go that low currently. Some improvement to visibility or even ceilings late tomorrow morning, but not expecting VFR or even much MVFR, staying IFR or lower. Winds that are light and variable will pick up out of the southeast at around 8 to 12 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.