textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering areas of light rain and drizzle this morning. Chances for rain showers Wednesday, highest chances west central Minnesota. Threat for any snow has ended.

- Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal late week and weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 532 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

As anticipated that area of precipitation that moves northward as weakened significantly to areas of light rain and drizzle in the Red River valley into Minnesota. A bit more moderate rain yet though to move thru Wadena, Park Rapids on west side of heavier rain moving toward Duluth at 1030z. 925 mb temps warmer in MN and with less intensity in the precipitation, any snow chance is now gone. So updated grids for drizzle/rain this morning and east. Lingering drizzle may continue this afternoon in some areas and that can be looked at later.

UPDATE Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Precip is becoming more widespread across the southern forecast area with sleet and rain being the main ptypes over the past 2 hours. A transition to snow along and north of a line can be expected from Ransom to Steele county with the Red River Valley likely remaining too warm for snow (very wet/melted dendrites if it does occur) east into the valley expect Sleet to continue for another hour or two with warming southerly winds pushing us back to rain by 2-3am. Snow accumulations look to be minimal especially on pavement where surfaces are still well above freezing per DOT sensors but on grassy/elevated surfaces a quick dusting near Cooperstown/Valley City to maybe on inch in south central North Dakota remains feasible.

..Rain Tonight into Tuesday

A stronger mid level wave is organizing into a hybrid type system with large scale ascent increasing across our CWA south to north late this afternoon through Tuesday. Initially drier air in northeast boundary layer flow will delay measurable rainfall, deeper moisture will support 700mb deformation banding of rainfall across the southern zones tonight. Stronger areas of frontogenesis will tend to be transient making coverage of higher totals 0.5"+ limited. Better coverage of rain will tend to initially be along and south of US Highway 200, though the track of the mid/upper low will eventually allow rain to overspread northwest/north central MN. Moderate to high probabilities (50-80%) for 0.25" or more rainfall are shown by NBM/HREF across southeast ND and west central MN, with a 30-50% chance in similar areas for greater than 0.5" of rainfall. Temperatures and precipitation rates tonight overall do not support any accumulating snowfall, just novelty flakes mixing in. If sufficient banding and dynamic cooling occurs, a light dusting on grassy/elevated surfaces cannot be ruled out (especially west of the Red River Valley).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Areas of rain and drizzle continue to transition across northeast ND and northwest MN, with additional pockets of fog over. This is creating variable visibility conditions early in the TAF period as the main system and deeper moisture transition northeast and east through the afternoon. Widespread low stratus (IFR) is impacting the entire region, with pockets of LIFR cigs. Eventually with a shift to south and southwest flow drier boundary layer conditions should help gradually improve ceilings for some locations to MVFR and even some areas of VFR, however there is a signal for stratus and possible fog to fill back in over areas where better radiational conditions will be tonight. For now northwest MN has the best chance for prevailing IFR (or MVFR) conditions to remain in place through the end of the TAF period.

The next system arrives Wednesday morning and a low level jet may bring a period of low level wind shear (30-45kt) as it progresses eastward. KDVL has the best chance at this time, though we may need to consider adding mention in eastern ND during subsequent updates. Rain chances also increase during the late morning hours in eastern ND, with periods of rain across northwest MN during the Wednesday afternoon/evening period (mainly after this TAF period).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.