textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected.

..Synopsis

Split flow is aloft is in place across the US with dry/war west- northwest flow over the Northern Plains as the more active northern jet stream and storm track remains in Canada. This is resulting in above average temperatures (close to 2 standard deviations from seasonal normals for highs) and dry/breezy conditions.

There is a trough that deepens Tuesday-Wedesnay that brings a brief period of stronger north-northwest flow aloft and a quick moving shortwave trough and cold front. The track of organized forcing is east of our CWA with the ma and deeper dry air preceding the arrival even the subset of ensemble members that show rain are very light (less than 0.1"). The consensus in ensembles with that system is for no measurable precipitation (may remain virga or sprinkles). The main result will be a brief return to seasonable temperatures Wednesday into Friday.

There is a strong signal in all ensembles than upper level ridging and anomalous heights/temperatures aloft (NAEFS percentiles 90% or higher/SD 1.5-2) by next weekend and early the next week. The net result will be continued dry conditions and a return to above average temperatures that my extend well beyond the end of the 7 day period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Low level wind shear will be the primary concern this morning as near-surface winds remain out of the north, upwards of 40 knots. This will subside as the morning progresses, with generally light surface winds through the day. Minimal cloud cover is expected this morning, with a gradual increase in mid to upper clouds this afternoon and evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.