textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue in portions of the Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota this afternoon.

- Next chance for widespread rain comes Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. There is a 30% chance for 1 inch of rain in portions of eastern North Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Temperatures this morning are in the 40s across the area, with low 40s in northwest Minnesota and upper 40s to the west of the Red River Valley. Winds remain out of the southeast at 5-10 mph, with the expectation of 15-20 mph winds later this morning, gusting into the 25-30 mph range this afternoon.

..Friday into Saturday rainfall

Compact but vigorous shortwave trough will bring a swath of widespread rain into the area from south to north starting Friday afternoon, lasting into Saturday morning. Guidance has trended in an increase in amounts, likely owing to a trend toward a stronger passage of this system as it swings into and through the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota in a negatively tilted fashion.

What once appeared like high end amounts around half an inch is now more likely to be widespread half an inch of rainfall, with potential to see around 1 inch. At this time, best chance for 1 inch is within southeast North Dakota where rainfall may linger the longest.

Thunder chances still look very low with most guidance keeping CAPE values under 300 J/kg. Can't rule out a few embedded lightning strikes given the strength of forcing, but overall activity is expected to be rather low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility prevail this morning at all TAF sites. Winds will increase later this morning, but remain out of the southeast through much of the day. Look for sustained winds of around 15 knots, with gusts upwards of 25-30 knots everywhere except KBJI, where gusts will be slightly lower. Cloud cover increases this afternoon with MVFR, then IFR ceilings expected to develop. Rain chances increase from southwest to northeast starting around 19Z at KFAR, then overspreading most of the area by 23Z. There is a chance for LIFR conditions overnight, which will manifest as low ceilings at all TAF sites.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.