textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a high chance for wetting rainfall Monday across the region which could impact outdoor activities.
- Gusty winds are forecast Monday and Tuesday. This will bring minor wind impacts to parts of our area.
..Gusty winds Monday and Tuesday
As the system rapidly strengthens Monday, it will energize southerly winds aloft as early as Monday morning over eastern ND into west-central and northwest MN. With the help of topography and a tightening pressure gradient, south-southeast winds gusting 25-40 mph are forecast - highest within the southern Red River Valley. While not forecast at this time, there is a low chance scenario for isolated gusts 40-55 mph during this first wave of gusty winds within the Red River Valley. It also remains unclear how convective elements within rainfall may help transfer strong winds aloft toward the surface.
As the day progresses and the system moves into south-central Canada, a cold front sweeps west to east across our area Monday evening. This will bring a second wave of gusty winds, this time out of the west/northwest, and likely to be a bit stronger. Gusts 30-50 mph are currently forecast, highest in Devils Lake basin of northeast ND. This is where a Wind Advisory is in effect Monday evening into Tuesday morning.
There is a scenario where even higher gusts 50-60 mph become present as early as Monday afternoon with the help of deep mixing amid the dry slot of the strong low. This could then be followed by similar gusts behind the cold front. Should this occur, a High Wind Warning may be needed - although confidence in this scenario is low. Lowered confidence in this higher impact winds stem from uncertainties in timing of the dry slot as well as strength of cold air advection/mixing potential.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Aviation impacts are forecast from LLWS, gusty winds, ceilings MVFR to IFR, and widespread rainfall. There is medium to high confidence in this occurring after 12Z Monday morning. LLWS at 2kft of 50 kt is forecast for sites like KFAR, KGFK, and KTVF. While not mentioned in the TAF, there is a low chance for lightning to occur after 15Z Monday, accompanying SHRAs.
Prior to 12Z, VFR conditions with light winds under 10kt are forecast through at least 12Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...Wind Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006- 007-014-015-024-026-028-054. MN...None.
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