textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue through Wednesday.

..Showers and storms this afternoon into Wednesday

Strong upper jet traversing the Dakotas into Minnesota is helping supply strong dynamical lift for ascent. This forcing will utilize available, although meager, moisture to produce widespread showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the rest of today, tonight, and into Wednesday. Instability is greatly lacking in our region, particularly as strongest forcing traverses our area tonight. This is nullifying potential for severe weather despite the strong wind energy that could have been harnessed for storm organization and/or wind gusts.

Thus, main hazard with today/tonight/Wednesday's storms will be lightning. There is, however, a small chance in funnels or even perhaps a brief, weak tornado given consolidated spin in the atmosphere as the strong mid level wave moves through - this potential is dependent upon the surface wave lingering longer than currently advertised, near the tri-state area, into this afternoon allowing enough surface heating to get storms to form favorably on lingering boundaries.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

On and off rain will continue tonight with the main thunder threat coming between 18z and 00z Wednesday afternoon. The bigger impact to aviation will be developing MVFR (KGFK, KFAR, and KTVF) to IFR conditions (KBJI, KDVL) overnight beginning as early as 09z-10z for all sites and lasting into the afternoon. Worst (lowest cigs) will be from 12/13z to around 18z (+/- 2 hours) for all sites. Winds increasing after 18z for all but BJI with northerly gusts to 25kts through the probability for gusts over 30 seems negligible at this time.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.