textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 40 percent chance for 2 inches or greater in far southeast North Dakota Friday night.

- Below normal temperatures into next week.

..Synopsis

500 mb upper low is in central Wisconsin at 09z and moving slowly east with surface low in northeast Wisconsin. Gusty winds continue to be over 30 kts into southeast ND and west central MN. These gusty winds will slowly subside as we go through the morning as the low moves east-northeast and the high pressure ridge axis is currently over central Saskatchewan into southwest North Dakota slides east. Lingering light snow in the eastern fcst area (Bemidji-Wadena should end near 12z). So for today forecast challenge is more cloud cover issues. Upstream shows considerable cloud cover in the MVFR aviation flight category range, but some holes are present. Used NBM/Conshort blend for sky today which keeps it mostly cloudy, but allows for a few breaks. The main colder air is still to our northwest so highs today will be mid to upper 20s.

Colder airmass with high pressure ridge will ooze east tonight into Thursday as winds continue to lighten and there is a slow clearing process. Lows tonight teens, highs Thursday low to mid 20s. Will need to watch for any areas that clear out over the deeper snow cover as low temperatures could tank. Seeing several areas of near zero degree temps in northwest ND and northeast Montana currently at 09z.

The next 500 mb short wave to affect the northern plains will move into Washington state Thursday evening and quickly southeast from there through Wyoming Friday night. Surface low formation with this looks to be close to the upper wave, but an area of frontogenetic forcing noted at 700 mb due to warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer will develop an area of snow from central Montana across southwest ND into eastern SD Friday into Friday night. 00z GFS/ECMWF and NBM all bring the far northeast edge of accumulating snow into central and SE ND and west central MN Friday night. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 700 mb frontogenetic forcing shift a bit more south in time the next 36 hours before this event and shift snow more out of far SE ND, but as it stands currently 40 percent chance of greater than 2 inches in far southeast ND (Sargent, Ransom, Richland counties).

After this wave...colder air will move in Sunday-Monday period with highs likely in the single digits and lows below zero in some areas. With relatively light winds, wind chills remaining warmer than advisory levels.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

MVFR conditions continuing for most areas (patches of low VFR currently) ceilings lifting to BKN035 this evening with winds remaining northwest through the period with gusts upwards of 20kts mainly within the eastern Red River Valley (so impacting FAR and TVF). Expect gusts to drop this afternoon/evening persisting a bit past sunset on a scattered basis.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.