textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warming to above normal.

- Multiple chances for wintry weather over the next week but predictability and confidence remain low.

..Synopsis

500 mb ridge centered near San Francisco early this morning with ridge north into British Columbia, putting our area in NNW flow aloft. This pattern begins to change gradually and becomes more westerly this weekend and perhaps southwest mid next week.

Short wave trough and sfc trough produced a dusting of snow last evening into the overnight and is southeast of the area early this morning with north-northwest winds around 10 kts behind it. Extensive cloud cover behind this system with lack of dry sfc high and new cold air source upstream. Clouds in the 950-880 mb layer remain extensive upstream and foresee clouds predominate today. Drying at 850 mb does occur, but that layer beneath 850 mb remains moist into tonight/Thursday morning. Sfc winds turn south-southwest this afternoon into tonight with warmer at 925-850 mb spreading east, and what should be warming temps at the sfc too, but if lower cloud cover exists due to low level moisture it may be difficult to rise as much as guidance suggests which is nearing 30 in the RRV by 12z Thu. But the degree of warming 925 mb is quite strong so hard to argue against guidance sfc temps at this time.

There will be a strong clipper low from northern Saskatchewan thru northern Manitoba and into NW Ontario today into tonight, with southwest edge of some light snow skirting Lake of the Woods area tonight. Behind this system during the day Thursday is when winds turn westerly 15-25 kts and will see the best push of warmer air eastward thru the fcst area, with highs above freezing. Extensive snow cover and also potential mid level cloud cover limiting how warm with mostly mid-upr 30s. NBM temps used in the fcst are between the 50th and 75th percentile.

Another short wave will dive southeast Thursday night giving a slight chance for precipitation once again in the Lake of the Woods region, with colder air moving south thru the area 06z-18z period Friday. Wind gusts 25-30 kts late Thu night/Fri AM from the north, but impacts from these winds would appear limited unless snow showers would occur as well. And while it is possible that occurs, it appears any snow showers would be brief and overall reductions to vsby in combo of falling snow and wind would be brief as well and limited to the 1-3SM range. Considering warming Thursday into Thursday evening ahead of the front snow on the ground may move some but not be lofted aloft enough to create vsby issues in blowing snow.

Brief cooling Friday will be replaced by milder temps spreading east over the weekend, warmer than average which are still highs in the mid teens to low 20s. Some precipitation chances do enter the picture in the Monday-Wed time frame...with flow aloft westerly and possibly southwest for a time mid next week. Models are in fair agreement with this idea, but ensembles esp GFS show a considerable spread in any precip potential and thus low confidence in any outcome or impacts from wintry weather next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

IFR to low MVFR will persist through the period with low status being poorly resolved my most guidance and low confidence in when it may improve. Winds generally 10-15kts turning SW to NW and gusting around 20kts but precipitation chances aside from perhaps KBJI remain low along the frontal passage.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.