textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog will continue to impact parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota this morning.

- Widespread rain is expected across the region Monday into Tuesday, with high chances for at least 1" of rainfall across southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota.

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue, particularly Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A larger/more uniform area of of dense fog spread into northwest MN (generally north of US Highway 2) and the Dense Fog Advisory was expanded to account for this. Farther east there had been several localized pockets of dense fog but they improvement while light fog (1-6sm) has lingered. The general trend in short range guidance is still for dense fog impacts to transition north and improve through 12Z across much of southeast ND and west central MN, with slower improvement in the northern Red River Valley. That matches the timing of current products, but additional adjustments may be made depending on short term trends.

The system Monday/Tuesday is still on track with high chances for soaking rainfall (1"+) across southeast ND and west central MN, and at least a medium chance for similar amounts as far north as the US Highway 2 corridor depending on the track and duration of deformation banding around the low center as it tracks through our region.

UPDATE Issued at 1019 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The main forecast change is the issuance of a dense fog advisory over much of eastern ND and the northern Red River Valley. Fog started forming this afternoon in Barnes and Griggs Counties. Around sunset, fog began expanding. As low level moisture continues to advect northward overnight, dense fog will develop along and north of Highway 2. Recent observations in this area are indicating dropping visibilities, and webcams confirm fog is becoming more prevalent. Advisories are in effect until 6 AM Sunday in the south, 9 AM in the north. However there is uncertainty in when exactly fog will clear. This is especially true near the Canadian border where fog will likely hang on longest and may persist beyond the advisories current expiration time.

..Rain Event Monday/Tuesday

A slow moving H5 trough is expected to deepen as we head into Sunday and Monday. This will bring widespread rain chances into the area through Tuesday, with around an 80 percent chance of at least a half inch of rain across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Chances decrease further north and west. The heaviest rain will occur in response to a deformation zone that forms as the upper low moves off to the northeast. As such, the track of the low will ultimately determine where the heaviest amounts fall, which could be upwards of 2 inches to 3 inches inside the deformation band. Outside this band, the range will be lower, likely in the 0.5 inch to 1 inch range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Areas of dense fog and low stratus responsible for VLIFR/LIFR impacts are lingering over northeast ND and parts of northwest MN, with an improving trend over southeast ND and west central MN where VFR conditions are returning as south-southeast winds gradually increase and help mix the low levels. While IFR conditions are expected to transition to MVFR over northeast ND by this afternoon, prevailing VFR conditions are much less likely at KDVL. The line between MVFR and VFR ceilings could be very close to KGFK this afternoon based on current trends in guidance. Eventually MVFR stratus fills back in late this evening/overnight tonight as strong low pressure approaches and IFR conditions should arrive as rain begins to spread into the region Monday morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-054. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ001-004- 005-007-008-013>015.