textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds are expected along and north of I-94 late this morning through early evening. Near the International Border, these strong winds will result in blowing snow.

- There is a chance for light snow across far southeast ND south of Interstate 94 late tonight through Saturday. There is as 20 percent chance for advisory impacts from moderate snow accumulations causing slick travel.

- Very cold wind chills are expected across parts of the region along and north of Highway 2 Saturday and Sunday mornings. The best chance for wind chills -30 or lower during those periods is across northwest Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 341 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Winds/Blowing snow today: Forecast remains on track today for strong winds behind a cold front late this morning into the afternoon/early evening. No changes have been made at this time to current Wind Advisory or Winter Weather Advisory. Strongest winds are still going to be associated with moderate to strong CAA (75-100 C/12hr), continues to be show to track along/north of I-94, loosing moment farther south. There is still chance that advisory wind gusts occur a bit farther south and southeast depending on mixing within the southern RRV and towards west central MN. There is also a chance (30%) for wind gusts 58mph+, particularly in northwest MN north of Highway 2. However, coverage of these higher gusts in this pattern may limit impacts and we will need to monitor upstream trends in Manitoba. There remains a bit more uncertainty still on local snow pack response to the winds today as previously discussed, though the northern RRV remains the location with the best potential for blowing snow impacts if there are any. This is particularly true of blowing snow plumes were to develop upstream in Manitoba where snow pack may be slightly more favorable and winds a bit higher. BL flow would then allow them extend into the northern Red River Valley creating impacts regardless of local snow pack response.

Snow potential tonight/Saturday: We continue to monitor this period for potential snow accumulation south of I-94 (closer to the ND/SD state line). Ensemble consensus still generally favors a surface low track and position of the 700MB baroclinic zone just to the west and south of our CWA limiting snow accumulation potential in our CWA as with previous forecast trends. However, there remains a smaller subset of guidance that place the lobe of positive frontogensis farther north and allows for moderate to locally heavy snow rates into our far southwest. The northern guidance includes models such as the NAM/NAM 3k that have a past history in our area of over representing WAA and under representing the impact of CAA and drier air in similar patterns. It is worth monitoring considering the low predictability of mesoscale driven snow bands, but chances remain low at this time in our area.

Regarding Wind Chill Impacts this weekend: Coldest air both Saturday and Sunday mornings will be in the north, and depending on winds wind chill values may drop into advisory criteria (-30F). The better signal for for expansive advisory impacts is Sunday morning in northwest MN (generally north of Highway 2), with conditions otherwise marginal (-25 to -28 range).

..Winds and Blowing Snow on Friday

A strong cold front will push from northwest to southeast after sunrise on Friday. The strongest cold air advection will be across the north during the late morning hours. A deep mixed layer with momentum transfer values of up to 45 knots near the International Border and 40 knots as far south as I-94 should promote wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph over much of the FA. As the initial surge of CAA passes through the far north, there is a brief period where momentum transfer values approach 50 knots. While the probability is low, a stray 55 to 60 mph gust is possible in the Langdon - Pembina - Roseau corridor. However, for the vast majority of the event, gusts should top out around 55 mph. Winds will die down considerably into the evening hours as the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure begins to gain control.

While warm temperatures today into tonight are working hard to create a crust on the snow, areas near the International Border will not experience as much time above freezing. In addition, this is the area the highest winds are forecast. Its not quite that simple though, as several other factors are working against blowing snow. For example, we start off very warm ahead of the cold front (near/above freezing). This means it will take several hours to get temperatures into the teens/single digits - which is when snow typically responds better to the wind, and lofts. By the time these colder temperatures work in, the best CAA bubble will be to the east, meaning winds will be beginning to die down. On top of that, if we get a bit warmer tonight ahead of the cold front from compressional heating, we could see a thicker crust form on the snowpack, ending any real chances for blowing snow. Even with these remaining uncertainties, the strength of the wind makes it hard to imagine that there will be absolutely no blowing snow across the far north. Therefore, while most of the FA has been placed under a wind advisory, four counties along the International Border are instead under a winter weather advisory for reductions in visibility from blowing snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions should prevail for most locations in eastern ND and northwest MN through the TAF period. There is a low chance for MVFR ceilings to develop later tonight in northeast ND (30% towards KDVL), however confidence in those conditions prevailing is low at this time.

The main aviation impacts will be related to low level wind shear early in the TAF period, and strong northwest winds behind a cold front later this morning through this afternoon. Strongest gusts would exceed 40kt with a 30% chance for localized gusts around 50kt during the afternoon. Most older snow pack is stable enough to limit the potential for blowing snow impacts at TAF sites, with any blowing snow visibility impacts within the region closer to the US/Canada border.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for NDZ007-008. MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for MNZ001>003-006>009-013>017-022-023. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for MNZ004-005.