textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly west of the Red River through Sunday.

- Several periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday through Friday, with better chances for wetting rainfall over more of the region. There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Widely scattered showers continue to track along/west of the Red River valley with the highest coverage in central ND. Where this activity tracks thee have been observations of several hundredths of an inch of quick precipitation, with coverage and duration limiting higher totals. This should keep amounts generally under 0.1" this morning in our CWA. There is enough lingering elevated instability (MUCAPE under 500 J/KG), so I won't rule out a few lightning strikes with deep enough updrafts (very low chances though). Overall impacts are minimal.

Looking ahead to the unsettled pattern, generally weaker shear or instability limits the potential for strong or severe thunderstorms with no current signal for an organized severe threat through Tuesday. The wave on Wednesday into Thursday carries higher spread, but also the potential for higher instability values and shear. Some machine learning systems are highlighting that period, but this isn't consistent yet. It would be a period to monitor though out of the next 7 days.

..Temperatures from the weekend into next week

With the upper ridge just to our east starting to break down and some shortwaves starting to bring some cloud cover, temperatures will be a bit more moderate and top out in the 80s instead of the 90s over the weekend. ECMWF EFI still shows a warmer than usual temperature signal, which makes sense given southwesterly flow aloft. Temps by the end of the period look to be just above average instead of well above seasonal averages and nearing records.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions should prevail across most of eastern ND and northwest MN through the TAF period. There is a low chance that MVFR stratus over western ND is able to spread far enough east to impact KDVL, however better chances for prevailing MVFR conditions at KDVL arrive later tonight into Sunday morning. Coverage of showers remains widely scattered, however there will continue to be at least a 30% chance for brief impacts at eastern ND TAF sites this morning.

Winds are already shifting to the east-southeast and increasing, and gusty winds should develop this afternoon (primarily across eastern ND). There is a medium chance for periodic wind gusts around 30kt over parts of eastern ND this afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.