textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire Weather Watch in place for Thursday midday into Friday evening for the Devils Lake to Valley City areas due to low humidity and wind.

- Gusty south to southeast winds Thursday, strongest in the Red River valley mid morning to early afternoon with gusts 50 mph possible. West winds Friday may gust to 55 mph especially northeast North Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

No futher changes. Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Fire weather is center stage. Likely peak fire weather conditions the next few days due to dry fuels, winds and RH values. Significant rainfall Sunday-Monday should help the situation with greenup. Coordination with neighboring WFOs yielded no critical wording today...though close. Then starting off with fire weather watch into our western forecast area Thursday midday and extending it thru Friday per BIS. Rest of E ND into MN, Thursday will see a band of clouds and some precip chances and thus a zone of higher RH moving thru in the afternoon. Therefore despite gusty south winds RH values remain sufficiently high to preclude any watch at this time. Friday morning into evening will see west winds, some gusts 50-55 mph in NE ND with RH values 20-25 pct and similar low RH values with gusty winds (though may not be as strong) elsewhere. So Fire Wx Watch in place for rest of E ND into all of NW/WC MN counties Friday.

NBM 5.0 winds seemed widly high sustained values when populated esp on Thursday within the RRV. Sustained 37-38 kts which seems high as all other guidances were a good 10-15 kts less. Did lower down some winds and for sustained Thursday capped at 30 kts.

..Fire weather concerns through the week

RH values have fallen to 30 percent just east of the Red River, and will continue to see humidity drop off in the next few hours before starting to recover. See little reason to make changes to the current Red Flag warning. Tomorrow the winds will be much lower, but still could get some good mixing and RH values down to the 20 to 30 percent range. Will have to watch out for any SPS/HWO needed for near critical messaging. Winds return out of the south Thursday, but dew points will also be rising, so at this point it seems afternoon RH values will stay around 30 to 40 percent. Winds shifting to the west behind the trough axis on Friday will bring drier RHs and strong winds back, so will monitor for future fire headlines.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

No issues today into this evening as skies predominately clear with light winds under 10 kts. Overnight southeast winds increase quickly and gusts by 11z reach over 35 kts after 07z. Low level wind shear as well likely late tonight due to low level jet.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054. MN...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.