textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread soaking rains are expected Monday into Tuesday. There is a 60-90 percent chance for 1 or more inches of rain across portions of eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota, with slightly lower chances in west central Minnesota.

..Synopsis

Mid level clouds continue to work slowly to the east this afternoon, with otherwise mostly clear skies. Look for increasing cloud cover tonight as our next system approaches the region. H5 upper low will move into the Northern Plains on Monday, into an environment supportive of moderate to heavy rain. Mixing ratios range from 10-12 g/Kg by Monday afternoon, with a relatively strong theta-e gradient boundary stretching from southwest to northeast across the eastern half of North Dakota. Embedded thunderstorm activity is expected as CAPE values will be in the 300-700 J/Kg range. Areas along an axis from Cooperstown to Grand Forks, to Roseau have the best chances for 1 or more inches of rain (80-90%), with slightly lower chances on either side. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 50s along the International Border, with low 70s in the southern Red River Valley. Heading into Tuesday, rain gradually moves off to the east, with minimal chances for precipitation through the remainder of next week. Cooler temperatures are expected from Thursday onward, with highs in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN through this evening into the overnight period, with only a low chance for patchy fog impacts in far southeast ND/west central MN (well south of KFAR). Aviation impacts increase as a result of a slow moving but strong system that will bring widespread rain and at least a chance for thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. Best chances for moderate to heavy rain (and associated vis reductions) along with IFR ceilings will be KDVL-KGFK-KTVF corridor based on where guidances shows the strongest consensus on placement of most organized banding of rain. I held off on introducing thunder mention as the coverage of embedded thunderstorms may be isolated to widely scattered with rain/rain showers predominant.

Light northerly winds become variable this evening with weak flow in place and shift to the east-southeast 8-14kt as low pressure builds east Monday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.