textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Below average temperatures continue this week as arctic air pushes southward into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with periodic light snow and flurry chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 1236 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Continued to add flurries into the forecast within the majority of Minnesota through the rest of the day into tonight. Low stratus cloud deck seems to be productive at flurry generation, so leveraged the cloud forecast for timing and location of flurries.

Started to blend in high resolution CAMs within PoPs for Tuesday and Tuesday night's cold frontal passage. Vast majority of guidance indicates this cold frontal passage is accompanied by relatively deep boundary layer RH (~2-3km worth of saturation) amid preceding WAA followed by moderate CAA ahead and behind the front, respectively. This brings expectation of effective light snow production ahead and behind the front. Accumulations are still anticipated to be light, ranging from a few tenths of an inch up to 1 or 2 inches.

UPDATE Issued at 711 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The stratus deck over MN has produced flurries on and of at observation sites the past couple of hours. In addition, the Devils Lake area has been getting flurries on the north and east shores, as southwest winds are promoting a little lake effect. Therefore, added a mention of flurries into the forecast for both of these regions. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with temperatures in the single digits on either side of zero to start the day off.

..Below Average Temperatures and Light Snow

There are a couple of players driving the weather over the Northern Plains early this morning. First is an area of high pressure situated over over southwestern MN, pushing to the south and east. This high resulted in very cold overnight minimum temperatures around midnight. The coldest values occurred in southeastern ND, where the closer proximity to the high, clear skies and a deep snowpack resulted in values as low as -16F degrees. As the high departs, water vapor indicates a very weak shortwave to our northwest that will pass through today. While this wave will not bring any meaningful precipitation, it will likely keep cloud cover (a mix of cirrus and stratus) a bit more prevalent.

Our first real weather maker in the seven day period arrives on Tuesday. A weak low pressure system/clipper looks to track through the region, initially ushering in slightly warmer temperatures, albeit its important to note values will still be a couple of degrees below average for early December. As the clipper passes through, light snow will break out, but limited moisture will keep snowfall totals on the light side (under 2 inches). As the cold front swings through Tuesday evening, temperatures will plummet, resulting in high temperature values in the single digits for Wednesday. Northerly winds will also be breezy to windy, lasting into Wednesday afternoon.

Thereafter, we remain stuck in northwest flow, so its a rinse and repeat pattern to end the week. High pressure meanders east Wednesday night into the Thursday, resulting in our FA seeing warming out ahead of another system developing in the lee of the Montana Rockies. Model guidance disagrees on the exact track this late week system will take, but this one looks to have more moisture to work with. Plenty to monitor as this system nears. And of course, as the low departs, yet another arctic high works down, resulting again in a significant cooldown for next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Area MVFR and IFR ceilings will linger within Minnesota through 06Z tonight. This is also producing light snow, with visibility at times dipping to around 2SM.

There is a 20% chance in fog tonight within portions of southeast ND as well as into northwest and west-central Minnesota between 02Z-07Z before winds increase and mitigate this chance.

Winds increase out of the south around 10-15kt ahead of an approaching cold front between 09-18Z Tuesday. This will also bring lowered ceilings in the MVFR to IFR categories, starting within North Dakota working east and southeast through the afternoon into evening. Light snow also accompanies these lowered ceilings.

Winds then shift out of the north 10-20kt, gusting up to 30kt within the Red River Valley, behind the cold front after 18Z Tuesday, with continued lowered ceilings and light snow.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.