textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- The probability for hazardous weather is low through next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Partly to mostly cloudy skies prevail heading into the afternoon, with winds generally ranging from 10 to 15 mph. A few gusts to 25 mph are possible west of the Red River Valley. Overall, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 602 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Much of the cloud cover in the north valley and far NW MN has dissipated. Few bands of mid clouds remain though, with thicker band southern MN into SE ND. Suspect this will be the theme today with areas of mid clouds, clear sky....with the clearer sky more in NW MN and cloudier sky in SE ND. No changes to pops or temps needed.

..Synopsis

500 mb split flow over the area from this past weekend into early this week. Upper level ridging over Saskatchewan into North Dakota with an eastward moving 500 mb low moving from Utah/Colorado into Nebraska tonight and into Iowa Tuesday. Sharp cutoff to the main moisture to the north, with main rain chances well south of the fcst area across southern/central SD into southern MN. Overall trend continues to be taking the higher rain chances south. However, NAM 12k and a couple of the NSSL cams indicate a small zone of potential light rain/sprinkles developing this aftn from southeast ND into central ND. This seems to be tied to an area of 700 mb convergence noted in the wind field from Jamestown to Garrison ND. Pops not showing up in the NBM, WFO BIS added some low pops for this scenario this aftn/eve and did blend with them for the most part indicating a low chance for -ra far SE ND to Valley City area then west. Overnight tonight it appears chance of any precip does drift into north central ND west of DVL. Sharp cutoff in mid level moisture tdoay and tonight with a sunnier day today in northwest MN with clouds increasing elsewhere. East wind 10 kts today. Surface temps shows highs today upper 30s to mid 40s and evening temps in the 30s so if any precip occurs it would be light rain.

Split flow becomes more zonal flow after this wave for mid to late week with main jet in Canada. 500 mb low drops well south into southwest Arizona and northwest Mexico mid week. With the main jet north of the border there will be a stronger short wave Wednesday thru central Saskatchewan into central Manitoba with a weak surface trough moving thru the forecast area Wed evening. Chance of light rain is forecast with this, very light amounts if any. Again temperatures warm enough for liquid rain.

500 mb zonal flow sags a bit south to along the International border Friday into the weekend. At this time other than periodic high and mid clouds, a dry period is expected with continued above normal temps.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the south to southeast this afternoon, and gradually become more easterly heading into the evening. Cloud cover in central and southeast North Dakota will move eastward this afternoon; however, there is only a low chance for MVFR ceilings for KFAR and KDVL later this evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.