textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance for strong wind gusts 45 mph or higher Tuesday and Thursday as several fronts pass through the region during the daytime and evening periods.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected over parts of the region each afternoon Monday through Friday. There is a 30% chance for Red Flag Conditions during these periods.

UPDATE

Issued at 718 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

No further changes. Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Coordination with neighboring offices yielded near critical fire weather messaging for eastern ND and northwest and west central MN this afternoon and early evening. From the looks of RH values and past few days did not change what the evening shift had for dew pts, which mixed in some lower HRRR values. Net result was lower RH values in the 20 to 25 percent in lower wind areas (MN trees) to 24 to 28 percent elsewhere. All areas borderline red flag. Coordination yielded near critical for all areas of the fcst area. South winds today look to be sustained 23-25 mph and gusts near 40 mph in the valley, just shy of advisory levels.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Clear skies prevail this evening in most areas, with scattered cumulus diminishing over northwest Minnesota. This clearing should allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s, with a few cooler spots likely around Lake of the Woods. Winds will begin to increase overnight, especially west of the Red River Valley, which should serve to limit the lower extent of colder temps.

..Fire weather impacts this week

The inherent uncertainty with the periods of strong wind/frontal passages also results in increased uncertainty on timing/location of lowest RH values in relation to the timing of stronger winds that could result in critical fire weather conditions/Red Flag Conditions. Much drier mixed layer Tds are initially in place through Monday, however as the front approaches mixed layer Tds are shown to increase near the prefrontal trough. There is still a window in our far east/north central MN counties where RH values may fall to 25% or less, however this is ahead of the stronger mixed layer winds. Near critical fire weather conditions appear more likely at this point Monday afternoon for those counties. RH values become much less certain through the week (especially towards the end of the week) as deeper moisture return favors increased mixed layer Tds (even if there is deeper mixing), only offset by the potential for higher temperatures in the 70s and 80s (outside signal for values near 90 in the souther RRV Thursday). As we get closer to the periods when shorter range guidance starts better resolving smaller scale features/frontal timing we should be able to get a better handle on periods when Red Flag conditions may occur.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 718 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR sky and vsbys into tonight. High clouds increasing today with a period of mid clouds late aftn into the night with front. Shower and isold t-storm chance but at this present time chance too low to mention at anyone TAF site at any specific time. Main issue in the RRV will be south-southeast winds today increasing with gusts 30-35 kts this aftn. Lesser wind in BJI.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001-002- 004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ003-029-030- 040.