textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures and shower and thunderstorm chances return late tomorrow and continue on and off into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

High pressure over the region will start to shift east tonight as ridge axis currently over the Northern Rockies starts to move slowly into the Plains. Most of the model solutions have a weak shortwave coming through the top of the ridge into the Plains late Friday. A few of of the models have a narrow band of 2000 J/kg of CAPE and 40 kts of deep layer bulk shear nosing into our far southwestern counties Friday evening. On the other hand, HREF updraft helicities are fairly unimpressive, and NBM box and whisker plots for southeastern ND range from nothing up to 1500 J/kg. The machine learning has some low chances for severe brushing our southwestern corner Friday, but have higher probabilities for Saturday and Sunday when flow aloft turns more zonal to southwesterly. Instability is a little more uncertain over the weekend depending on where a frontal boundary ends up, with most solutions having the best CAPE values well to the southwest when the good forcing arrives late Sunday. All this to say, there are some chances for severe over the weekend, but not high enough to start messaging specifics at this point.

Near zonal to southwesterly flow aloft continues into next week. Temps look to be above average with several chances for precipitation as weak shortwaves come through. Timing and intensity of any storms still uncertain with such weak forcing and unknown instability.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. There is a low chance for patchy ground fog as sunrise approaches. Winds will be light and variable everywhere except KDVL, where winds are expected to be 6-8 knots overnight. Winds pick up slightly heading into Friday morning into the range of 7-12 knots.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.

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