textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats.

..Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday

Severe thunderstorm coverage on Monday afternoon and evening will depend heavily on the timing of an approaching cold front. Warm air advection will be strong through much of the day across eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota; however, with remnant shower activity on Monday morning potentially lingering, this could shorten the window of potential severe weather late Monday. Looking at CAMs, there are several potential scenarios, ranging from potential splitting supercells, to elevated clusters. Model soundings are consistent with nearly straight hodographs as the front approaches, which continue to support splitting supercells and hybrid clusters. As such, a high end scenario supports supercells developing west of the Red River during the late afternoon, with hazards including wind gusts to 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. A more likely scenario would be that we have lingering convective inhibition later into the afternoon, thus delaying convection until later in the evening. This would still support wind gusts up to 70 mph, but would transition into mainly an elevated hail scenario that extends into the early overnight hours. With this later scenario, we could see isolated severe thunderstorms lingering into Tuesday morning across parts of northwest Minnesota.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The main challenge throughout the TAF period will be shower and thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms near KMOT will push eastward this evening, impacting KDVL before midnight. At KGFK and KTVF, showers are likely, but the probability for thunder is lower, therefore no -TSRA mention at these TAF sites at this time. Clouds will thin out with showers/storms decreasing in coverage Monday morning. Southerly winds of 10 to 14 knots accompanied by a few gusts to 20 knots within the Red River Valley will prevail Monday afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development may occur late Monday afternoon and evening, persisting into the overnight beyond the end of this TAF period. At this time, predictability in where storms form along with their coverage precludes any mention of them within the last few hours of the TAF.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.