textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for strong to severe storms Monday.

- Seasonable weather with scattered rain chances today in northwest Minnesota and all areas early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Monitoring development of fog. Ground fog is present and typically visibility is variable as most of it is low lying over grassy fields. Did an SPS as potential is there for fog to expand and lift and affect more areas. High pressure is over eastern North Dakota at 08z with light winds. Pockets of stratocu clouds and MVFR to IFR ceilings expanding around Bemidji to Park Rapids and Detroit Lakes. Only change to pops was to matchup with BIS and ABR in having upper wave in southern Saskatchewan and its showers move southeast possibly affecting parts of SE ND this afternoon. Kept pops as is up around Lake of the Woods as wave moves southeast thru NW Ontario.

..Synopsis

NW flow continues to become more amplified the next few days with increasing ridging across the Rockies and high plains. Troughing off the Pacific coast looks to move ashore Saturday and flatten the ridge bringing increasing precipitation chances through early next week. Ridging then returns for the mid and late week next week. Could see some strong to severe storms on Monday/Tuesday next week though there are still a great deal of unknowns and wont speculate into the potential too much. Overall seasonal weather with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day and the peak daily heat index generally 80-85 making a it a comfortable stretch of late summer weather.

- Today

A low centered around Baudette continues to drift east along the International Border this afternoon with a narrow warm sector to the south along an ill defined trough with a weak wind shift from SW to W/NW behind the boundary. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg and MUCAPE exceeding 2000 j/kg will provide plenty of buoyancy for storms with Eff shear of 30-35kts at least supporting an initially organized mode as shear vectors remain perpendicular to the front. Largely unidirectional shear should support some splitting of cells and an initial hail threat up to quarter/ping pongs (1-1.5") before cells grow upscale along the front and transition to a mainly winds threat. Depending on the timing of storm initiation the front could already be east of our area with areas from Bemidji to Fergus Falls and east the only ones with a realistic chance to see a storm still this afternoon. Chances for any severe reports within our forecast area this afternoon are 10% or less. Timing will be from 3 to 6pm for any storms to form in our area before the front works east. Beyond the marginal chances for severe a second shortwave will rotate through the NW flow overnight bring more scattered showers/thunderstorms but chances for more than isolated totals over 0.10 are minimal so dont expect too much.

- Rain/Severe Chances Early Next Week

The AI ensembles agree strongly on the track of a wave through the canadian provinces on Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning with the Euro notably being faster than the GFS (typically the GFS is more progressive). The Euro also maintains a wider and more stout northward surge in the warm sector owing to its slightly more developed low and attendant features. Overall the expectation is for lee troughing east of the rockies with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg to support at least a wind and hail threat on Monday afternoon/evening. Looks like an event that will be much more spotty on rain amounts and dependent upon where thunderstorms track but isolated totals over 1 inch area certainly possible.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Fog most persistent around TVF airport AWOS and it could go from 1/4SM to VFR in short duration. TAF shows improvement but will need to be updated I am sure to match actual conditions. Otherwise today scattered to broken altocu from mid clouds spreading east-southeast from northwest ND into east central/southeast ND. Bemidji is an area as well that is tricky this morning as signs point that the IFR ceilings will improve by 14z but that is an estimate. Northwest winds today 8 to 18 kts, few gusts 20-23 kts in the RRV.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.