textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional periods of light snow and wintry mix this weekend may bring sub-adivsory level impacts to travel conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 940 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Flurries continue in some locations. Some sites did report freezing drizzle earlier this evening, however that should all become snow as colder air sags southward. Impacts remain limited tonight as colder air sags south and flurries remain the main weather phenomena.

UPDATE Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Flurries continue this evening across the region beneath stratus. There is the potential for some accumulating snow but should remain at most a few tenths, so impacts will remain very limited.

..Light snow and wintry mix this weekend

A weak, very low amplitude shortwave trough aloft will traverse the area late Friday into Saturday. This will bring light snow, with generally the entire area holding equal chances at seeing snow. Given the very weak forcing for ascent/precipitation production as well as meager moisture content, QPF amounts are very light. However, most ensemble and deterministic guidance depicts moderately deep to very deep saturation within the dendritic growth zone as forcing aloft passes through. This would favor high snow to liquid ratios greater than 15:1, turning very light QPF amounts less than 0.03 inches into 0.5-2.0 inches of snow by end of the day Saturday.

This particular wave holds an 40% chance for sub-advisory impacts, mainly in the form of light snow accumulation up to 2 inches.

The next shortwave trough to traverse the region comes Sunday. This wave is a little more amplified and relatively stronger than Saturday's shortwave trough. This would allow more potential for higher QPF into the 0.2-0.4 inch range. However, as warmer temperatures aloft accompany this shortwave, snow to liquid ratios are very low, perhaps less than 10:1. This still may allow snow to range in the 2 to 4 inch range.

Additionally, most ensemble guidance doesn't strengthen this wave until it reaches the Upper Midwest, currently keeping the chance for accumulating snow largely confined toward central MN and points east. Should this wave deepen quicker than what most ensemble guidance depicts, the chance for accumulating snow between 2 to 4 inches spreads deeper into our area. Additionally, guidance also brings potential for light freezing rain/drizzle with this wave. This may drive its own set of potential impacts through light icing.

This particular wave holds a 60% chance for sub-advisory level impacts, as well as 20% chance for advisory level impacts, driven by the chance to see accumulating snow up to 4 inches and/or light glaze of ice.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Low level stratus will hang around this evening and overnight, but how low ceilings remain is in question. Expect flight categories to range between VFR and MVFR for the entire TAF period. Most guidance indicates we will remain VFR this evening, however given ongoing stratus that remains a question and guidance tends to struggle with stratus situations in winter. Regardless, beneath this stratus, flurries may continue to periodically reduce visibilities to 4SM at worst. Winds will remain low and sustained below 10 knots for the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.