textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a medium chance for thunderstorms early next week. Potential exists for strong to severe storms on Monday over portions of southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 717 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Low pressure was just west of Rugby at 09z and moving northeast. Bulk of the rain is north of the border, but there is an area of numerous showers moving thru northwest and north central MN producing 0.20 to 0.40 inch from Detroit Lakes area northeast toward Bemidji. More drizzle and low clouds over the RRV from Fargo and north with last area of showers moving thru DVL basin. Cloudy this morning for most areas with gradual clearing this aftn. Winds will turn northwest and increase to 15-30 mph over eastern North Dakota into the Red River valley by early afternoon as the low reaches Winnipeg area. Wind shift to the northwest will take place late today/evening east of the valley. And along this cold front some t-storm activity is possible in the warm sector east of the valley in NW/WC Minnesota, especially if any clearing occurs. Dew points today will be in the low 70s today east of the cold front. Potential for 1500-2000 j/kg MU CAPE 21z in the area from Bemidji to Wadena.

..Severe Potential Early Next Week

As another stronger wave propagates through Canada greater instability will advect into the region, ahead of a cold front. Multiple scenarios exist regarding how this will evolve, including strength and timing differences, which will ultimately decide on storm coverage and intensity - severe potential. ML/AI guidance indicate a signal for severe storms Monday-Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 717 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For today starting off IFR at most locations due to ceiling or visibility in fog or drizzle. Main question and main forecast challenge is figuring out the timeline of when ceilings will improve thru the day into this evening. Timing of cigs rising from IFR to MVFR in TAFs is roughly 15z period but that is an estimate. So likely a day with plenty of amendments. NW wind this afternoon in E ND/RRV 10-20 kts sustained with gusts 25 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.