textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for northeast North Dakota through mid morning today. Dense fog will make travel conditions hazardous.

- Above average temperatures continue through early next week. This will continue to erode the snowpack, although no hydrological impacts are anticipated at this time.

- The next chance for a more active precipitation pattern will be mid to late next week, but confidence in winter impacts is low.

UPDATE

Issued at 449 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Fog remains in northeast ND but it is much more patchy than at 06z. But where fog is getting vsbys lower than 1/4SM from Cooperstown ND area up along west edge of the RRV to Cavalier. Also a patch around Cando and likely north of Devils Lake. So will maintain advisory as is as not enough of the area is fog free to cancel it.

UPDATE Issued at 739 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Observations indicate dew point depressions approaching zero and cameras across northeast North Dakota show dense fog ongoing, so we've decided to issue a Dense Fog Advisory as it is unlikely to see much improvement until sunrise. There is the potential for further expansion, particularly south where dew point depressions are 0-3F, so we'll be keeping an eye on things if we need further expansion.

..More active pattern next week

There is decent agreement on the upper flow becoming more southwesterly by next week, although differences in the details. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS runs bring out a lead shortwave on Tuesday but differ on how they take it out of the region on Wednesday. An entire cluster of 25 percent of the grand ensemble members have upper ridging holding in place over the Plains for Tuesday/Wednesday while the main trough is still out over the west coast. Even if there was agreement on timing, the recent and continued warmer than average temps will make precip type a headache to figure out. There is the possibility of both rain and snow, and the ECMWF ensemble even shows some chances for sleet or freezing rain at some of the more northern locations. With the high levels of uncertainty, will hold off on any messaging for the middle of next week for the moment, but keep a close eye on trends.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 649 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

One area of fog remains in NE ND in between GFK and DVL. Though seeing some evidence of new fog patches forming southeast of DVL moving northwest, so it possible fog may return to DVL here between 13-15z. Otherwise though rest of the TAF sites should be VFR today with scattered clouds. Light winds today into tonight, southerly 5-9 kts. Fog may re-form tonight in NW MN.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ006>008- 015-016-026>030-054. MN...None.