textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected today, and a few strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon. Wind gusts to 50 mph and small hail would be the main threats.

UPDATE

Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Update made to Key Message.

A mid level shortwave currently over Saskatchewan will track across the central and eastern Dakotas today within NW flow, with the exit region of the upper level jet supporting large scale ascent over our CWA. A surface trough and elevated frontal zone will tend to act as the main focus for organized areas of showers to develop and HREF supports widespread shower activity over much of the region, with embedded thunderstorms. There is a low probability in some machine learning for severe gust potential across the southern half of our CWA, however confidence is reduced as shear is weak and DCAPE remains under 800 J/KG through the event. There could be some strong gusts, however the probability for severe gusts are much lower. Elevated skinny CAPE profiles and weak shear also lower confidence in severe hail potential, and smaller hail would traditionally be favored. Freezing levels are expected to be under 10kft agl however, so we could see a few near severe hail stones sneak in amoung smaller hail on some storms.

..Synopsis

The overall pattern across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest continues to support cooler temperatures and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms for the next week. H5 height anomalies remain quite low north the Great Lakes through the end of next week, with shortwaves traversing northwest flow.

The first of these waves arrives Monday, bringing diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Low level lapse rates are expected to be nearly dry adiabatic, which will combine with low freezing heights to present a hail threat during the strongest storms. Most thunderstorm activity should remain sub severe; however, hail up to 1 inch in diameter cannot be ruled out.

Heading into Tuesday, another weak shortwave traverses a baroclinic boundary, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms as the larger boundary lifts northeastward into the area. Reinforcing cooler air moves into the Northern Plains on Wednesday as highs struggle to reach 70 degrees in most places. Additional rain chances emerge on Thursday and Friday, but will be dependent on the timing of shortwave activity.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, though there is a chance for brief drops in ceilings and visibility to MVFR ranges due to rain showers and scattered thunderstorm activity. The front and mid level system responsible for rain chances today is moving out of the northwest this morning, and will track through the region this afternoon and evening (northwest to southeast). Winds will be shifting to the west northwest and increasing above 12kt as this moves in later this morning through the afternoon (gusts to 25kt in eastern ND). Shower activity will tend to fill in across the region with daytime heating around midday as the main wave arrives, with peak shower coverage this afternoon, decreasing in coverage as the system moves southeast and the sun sets. Isolated stronger thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon with small hail and winds to 50 mph.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.