textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty west winds are possible Tuesday morning through the late afternoon. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible.

- Winter impacts are possible Wednesday and Thursday as a storm system brings precipitation and gusty winds into the area. There is a 60 percent chance for advisory impacts, including snow and blowing snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 639 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Winds continue to gust 30mph+ early this evening resulting in drifting snow and a few localized pockets of blowing snow (reducing visibility to 2-6 miles). The trend should be for winds to decrease as the LLJ continues to transition east and the surface trough just to the west arrives allowing the gradient to finally relax later this evening. Higher level clouds (12000-15000 FT AGL) continue across the region while WAA is in place at 925MB and temperatures are trending up west to east. The forecast is generally on track, so only minor near term adjustments were necessary.

..Winter Impacts Possible Wednesday Night into Thursday

An upper low traverses northwest flow late Wednesday into Thursday, which will bring our next chance for precipitation and the potential for winter impacts. This system is expected to form along a sharp baroclinic zone, with Arctic air to the north and Pacific moisture to the south. Ensembles spread remains somewhat high with regards to the potential for heaviest QPF, but is generally in good agreement with wind potential. At this time, a swath of moderately heavy snow is possible, along with north to northwest wind gusts of 40 mph or higher. The WSSI-P is showing roughly a 60 percent chance for advisory impacts for much of the Red River Valley, and a 10 percent chance for warning impacts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions are more likely to prevail across eastern ND through the TAF period. There is a higher chance for MVFR ceilings in the 09-16Z period across northwest/north central MN and a low chance for brief IFR conditions. The axis of stratus that forms is currently expected to remain east of KGFK, but it could be close.

The stronger surface gradient responsible for gusty winds is beginning to decrease and shift east, but southerly gusts will likely still linger until the main surface low moves into our region later this evening. There is also a 40-45kt LLJ currently over northwest MN that should transition east by 06Z. Winds eventually drop below 12kt and become a bit more complicated as a weak front/boundary pushes east followed by surface high pressure resulting in a shift to west-northwest winds along with several periods of light and variable winds. Eventually another low pressure system develops later in the day Monday and southerly winds would then be expected in central ND late in the period (across the rest of the region after this TAF period).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.