textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rainfall is forecast late Sunday into Monday. There is a 70 percent chance for soaking rainfall of 1 inch or more within far southeast North Dakota into Minnesota.

..Widespread Rainfall Tonight into Monday

A large low pressure system will propagate northeastward from Kansas to Lake Superior over the next 36 hours. As it passes to our south and east, we will find ourselves in a region of steady stratiform precipitation. Rain will start this evening in the south, spreading across all of southeastern ND and MN tonight. There are still a few model differences in how far south/east the low tracks, which will determine where the cut off in heavier rain versus much lighter totals sets up. Rain will end from west to east as the center of low pressure quickly tracks to the north and east Monday afternoon and evening.

Rainfall totals will vary from nothing/sprinkles in parts of the Devils Lake Basin to over an inch in our far eastern counties where residence time of the steadiest rain will be longest. Probabilities for an inch or more of rain are highest in west central MN at 70%. Totals will vary most over short distances on the western edge of the heaviest rain, where little shifts in the systems track will make a big difference in the final amount of rain received. This includes places such as Valley City, Grand Forks, Thief River Falls, and Roseau.

Additionally, it will be breezy on Monday. The best pressure rises are to our south, but with a 1025 mb high over Saskatchewan and a near 990 mb low in southern MN, the pressure gradient should be enough to drive wind gusts up to 40 mph or so. Future shifts will need to monitor if a wind advisory is needed for any zones Monday morning and afternoon. Right now, based on the weak temperature advection, questionable mixing depth and the bullseye of pressure rises being outside our CWA, decided to hold on issuing any headlines at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

While we have VFR to start the TAF period, it will not last. Overnight, ceilings will lower, rain will begin, and visibilities will drop. After sunset, expect ceilings to drop into MVFR, then IFR which will persist through the end of the TAF period. Winds will also pick up significantly on Monday, with gusts out of the north over 30 knots at times by late Monday morning. There is uncertainty late in the TAF period if rain will continue or if it clears out a bit faster. If rain clears out faster, visibilities would improve quicker, but its unlikely ceilings would change much.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.