textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms mainly in southern North Dakota into parts of west central Minnesota today into tonight. Isolated severe impacts with hail and wind hazards.

UPDATE

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Scattered showers are moving across northeast North Dakota this evening, as well as the southern Red River Valley. Occasional lightning strikes are evident, however, support for strong storms remains weak heading into the overnight period. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s across the area, along with light and variable winds.

..Thunderstorm chances and severe potential tonight

The upper forcing is still well off to our southwest, but with ML CAPE around 2500 J/kg in south central ND some convective towers have already started to develop. Many of the CAMs bring most of the activity into southeastern ND later this evening well after 00Z as thunderstorms come east off the High Plains. But as stated above the CAMs have not been doing well lately. Any showers and thunderstorms that do develop have severe potential with deep layer shear around 50 kts, but there is also some displacement from the main forcing. HREF has the best probabilities of strong updraft helicity values mostly in SD with just some 10 to 20 percent chances in our far southwestern counties. Machine learning models also have severe chances around 5 to 15 percent in portions of our southern counties. Will continue to keep an eye on how storms develop, but for now the marginal risk for hail up to quarters and 60 mph seems reasonable.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Scattered showers are moving to the south of KFAR and to the east of KDVL tonight. The chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight at any TAF site is minimal. Look for a continuation of light and variable winds tonight, with an increase in winds out of the northeast heading into Thursday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.

IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.

textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.