textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a threat for isolated thunderstorms across north central MN near Lake of the Woods, with the primary threat for hail up to the size of golf balls.

UPDATE

Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for parts of northwest Minnesota, including Roseau and Lake of the Woods County. The primary hazard will be hail up to the size of quarters.

UPDATE Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The Extreme Heat Warning was expired as scheduled.

Through the early morning hours there is still a lingering threat for a severe thunderstorm to develop within the Lake of the Woods region as a goo elevated instability and deep layer shear are in place as a mid level shortwave passes. Elevated supercells would support primarily a large hail threat, with any severe threat in our northeast ending by 3 AM as this wave pushes east-southeast of our area.

UPDATE Issued at 849 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Hot temperatures around 90 with higher Tds in the low to middle 70s are resulting in heat index values 100-110 lingering over parts of the Red River Valley and west central MN this evening. Other locations are seeing gradual improvement. Where the Extreme Heat Warning is in place represents the locations where impacts are likely to linger and the warning was extended through 11 PM CDT, while the advisories are being allowed to expire as scheduled at the top of the hour.

..Severe Storms Today

A persistent WAA regime has been in place over northwestern MN this morning, allowing for storms to develop earlier today. However, low level flow has been weakening into the early afternoon. There is indication within some model guidance that flow will increase slightly again later today during the evening hours as a shortwave rounds the ridge. This may be enough forcing to get a storm or two to develop. If a storm can form, effective shear of over 40 knots and ample instability will help organize storms, with supercells capable of severe hail being the primary threat. It will be very difficult to get a storm to form further south in west central MN, as this area is far from any forcing and fighting a stout cap.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, though there is still a chance that brief visibility reductions could occur due to wildfire smoke (most smoke should remain off the surface). Current smoke layer is likely in the 10-25 kft range based on latest data. Winds are variably currently as surface low pressure and several fronts move through the region, with west-northwest winds eventually prevailing. Winds do increase to 12-15kt during the daytime period Monday, with occasional gusts to 20kt.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.