textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

- There is a 20% chance for advisory impacts from a wintry mix Thursday night into Friday.

- A more active pattern may continue into next week bringing additional opportunities for winter impacts over parts of the region. Predictability in impacts remains very low beyond Friday.

..Uncertainty Late Friday into the Weekend

As a stronger wave ejects onto the Plains within southwest flow late Friday into Saturday, uncertainty only grows. First, ensemble members disagree around the timing of the wave. A little faster, and it may interact/phase with the first wave tracking through late Thursday into Friday. If it waits a little longer, these two systems may not interact at all. Second, ensembles show disagreement in the strength of the ridge over the southeastern US. Less ridging would mean a less north track, which would lower overall impacts for our FA. Intensity of the system is also unknown, with a large part of that hinging on if there is some sort of interaction between the two waves. Overall, there remains significant uncertainty in the location and intensity of winter impacts.

Beyond Saturday, ensembles are hinting at another wave or two as the flow becomes more zonal/northwesterly. Again though - there are large differences in the location/timing of each wave. Therefore, while a more active period of weather does look to be in store, details remain slim as to how conditions will evolve at any one exact location. Check back in the coming days for further details.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Ceilings and visibilities will be a challenge over the next 24 hours at all TAF sites. Fog this morning has slowly been lifting, but remains in place at some terminals such as KTVF and KFAR. Where fog has dissipated, ceilings remain low, IFR to even LIFR at times. Ceilings should improve a bit this afternoon, flirting on the line of IFR/MVFR. However, once the sun sets, fog should fill back in, first in the south at KFAR, expanding north with time. Visibilities will tank back towards airfield minimums, which will last into Wednesday morning. Visibilities should improve late in the TAF period as a more steady southerly wind works to push in warmer air, and erode the fog from south to north.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.