textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong westerly winds will continue today over much of the region, bringing the potential for blowing dust impacts again through much of the afternoon.

- Dry conditions along with the winds will bring critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all counties through late this evening.

- There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Sustained wind speeds this morning are generally ranging from 15-20 mph along and north of Highway 200, with slightly lighter winds to the south. The upper low passes to our north later today, with the best support for stronger wind gusts being along the International Border, southward to roughly the I-94 corridor. Blowing dust, along with reduced visibility, is likely once more today, albeit a bit less widespread than yesterday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Strong upper low rotating over Saskatchewan will move east tonight. The surface low will continue to move slowly across southern Canada, with the trough axis currently extending down into eastern ND moving off into MN. Pressure gradient in our western counties is starting to relax just a bit as the trough axis comes in, but plenty tight in northwestern ND close to the surface low. The strong southerly winds that are bringing our blowing dust and dropping vis close to a quarter of a mile in some spots will decrease a bit late this afternoon. Behind the through axis, there will be a decent pressure gradient along with some cold air advection. Model soundings have mixing all the way up to 700mb, and although the jet is not quite as strong, there is plenty of momentum to mix down. Winds at least across the northern portions of the CWA will pick up again tonight and tomorrow, with probabilities of wind gusts over 40 mph at 50 percent along and north of I-94 and 80 to 100 percent along and north of Highway 2. Extended wind advisory for all but our southern and eastern counties through tonight and tomorrow.

While definitely could see another day of blowing dust this afternoon into Friday, this time from the west instead of the south, confidence in exactly where and how low visibility will go is uncertain. Most likely will be expanding the blowing dust advisory into Devils Lake Basin and upper Sheyenne in addition to the RRV through 00Z as the west winds start coming in this evening. Will wait and see if any more dust products are needed beyond that tonight and tomorrow. The west winds will bring even lower RHs, as current values are around 20 percent. There will be a little bit of recovery tonight as RH values come up into the 40 and 50s, but fire danger will remain high. Afternoon RH values in all of our area should get down to 20 to 25 percent. Winds will be 20 to 25 mph even outside of the wind advisory area. Thus, expanded the Red Flag warning to all of our counties from now until 9 pm tomorrow.

Will finally see a break in the wind on Saturday as surface high pressure builds in behind the departing low. Southwesterly flow aloft sets up for Sunday with a lead shortwave trough coming out. The main surface low seems like it will be over SD/MN/WI Sunday into Monday, with better moisture over our area than the current system. The ECMWF EFI has a decent signal for some precipitation, and NBM has a over 60 percent chance CWA-wide for over a quarter of an inch of rain. There is even 50 to 60 percent chance of over an inch of rain by 06Z Monday across portions of southeastern ND and west central MN. Some of the ensembles have some instability creeping into our far southeastern counties Sunday afternoon, although others keep even elevated CAPE under 500 J/kg. Plenty of deep layer shear though, so will have to watch for any severe thunderstorm chances that day.

The main upper trough finally moves out into the Plains for the first part of next week, eventually becoming more northwesterly again by Thursday. Temperatures will be cooling down again back down below seasonal averages, with a few minor precipitation chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

West winds increase this morning into the sustained range of 15-20 knots. Gusts become more frequent heading into the late morning and midday hours, with gusts to 40 knots at all sites except KBJI, where gust potential will be slightly lower, generally around or just over 30 knots. Blowing dust is expected once more today, but should be less widespread than what was observed yesterday. Visibility reductions are still expected, however, and could be as low as 2SM at times. The best chances for the lower visibility will be at KGFK and KDVL. Heading into the late afternoon and evening, winds will begin to taper off, with conditions improving as we head into the late evening and overnight hours.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054. MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027>032-040. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>005-007- 008-013>015-022-027.