textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday evening and overnight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, with lower chances for hail and tornadoes.

- There is a 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

- There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. All hazards are possible.

..Severe Thunderstorm Chances Tonight through Wednesday

Late Evening through Monday Morning: Thunderstorms are expected to develop in western and central North Dakota this afternoon, then move into eastern North Dakota this evening and overnight. At this time, there is uncertainty with regards to how strong these storms will be once they enter the region. MLCAPE values along the axis are ranging from 3000-3500 J/Kg in northwest North Dakota; however, many of the storms are likely to move away from this axis upon development. Conditions become slightly less favorable for MCS maintenance further to the east, as low to mid level shear fall quickly in eastern North Dakota. The most likely scenario for severe storms this evening will be a weakening line of severe storms, with the most likely hazard being damaging wind gusts (potentially significant) and hail. DCAPE values are upwards of 1500 J/Kg across much of the state through at least late evening, allowing the rapid progression of any storms still ongoing as they move into the Devils Lake Basin. As this feature moves east, another area of showers and storms is expected to form in northwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota. These storms could bring strong, if not occasionally severe impacts to that area overnight and into early Monday morning, with large hail and wind gusts upwards of 60 mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Moisture advection remains strong heading into Tuesday as low level flow increases out of the south. SBCAPE in model soundings ranges from 3000 J/Kg to 4000 J/Kg, with low to mid level shear ranging from 20 to 40 knots. Guidance has been consistent over the past several runs, with good support for Supercell development just west of the CWA Tuesday afternoon. Strong environmental support exists for rapid upscale development into a linear MCS or QLCS. Model soundings show strong support for all hazards across a large portion of eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and west central Minnesota. DCAPE values, effective shear, lapse rates, and CAPE are all within a range that encourage MCS maintenance through the late afternoon, evening, and early overnight. As such, a mention of damaging wind gusts (potentially significant), tornadoes, and large hail are all supported.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions with south-southeast winds 15-25kt should initially prevail this evening. isolated thunderstorms have development over parts of eastern ND and west central MN, however impacts with this early activity are going to remain much more localized with lower chances (less than 30%) at TAF sites. Better shower and thunderstorm chances overspread the region late this evening into the morning hours as two different systems move through the region (one from western ND and the other from southern MN. The best chance for severe winds would be late this evening/early overnight in the KDVL region.

As several fronts pass through the region shower and thunderstorm chances decrease Monday morning, however a period of stratus (MVFR and locally IFR) may impact the region before improving back to VFR west to east Monday afternoon. Winds shift to the southwest then west-northwest as these fronts pass through the region.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ001-007-014- 015-024-026-028-038-054. MN...None.