textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a high chance for wetting rainfall Monday across the region which could impact outdoor activities.

- Gusty winds are forecast Monday and Tuesday. This will bring minor wind impacts to parts of our area.

..Gusty winds Monday and Tuesday

As the system rapidly strengthens Monday, it will energize southerly winds aloft as early as Monday morning over eastern ND into west-central and northwest MN. With the help of topography and a tightening pressure gradient, south-southeast winds gusting 25-40 mph are forecast - highest within the southern Red River Valley. While not forecast at this time, there is a low chance scenario for isolated gusts 40-55 mph during this first wave of gusty winds within the Red River Valley. It also remains unclear how convective elements within rainfall may help transfer strong winds aloft toward the surface.

As the day progresses and the system moves into south-central Canada, a cold front sweeps west to east across our area Monday evening. This will bring a second wave of gusty winds, this time out of the west/northwest, and likely to be a bit stronger. Gusts 30-50 mph are currently forecast, highest in Devils Lake basin of northeast ND. This is where a Wind Advisory is in effect Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

There is a scenario where even higher gusts 50-60 mph become present as early as Monday afternoon with the help of deep mixing amid the dry slot of the strong low. This could then be followed by similar gusts behind the cold front. Should this occur, a High Wind Warning may be needed - although confidence in this scenario is low. Lowered confidence in this higher impact winds stem from uncertainties in timing of the dry slot as well as strength of cold air advection/mixing potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Rain will shortly begin to overspread TAF sites from west to east. Instability, while present, remains too low to include any TSRA mention with low confidence in location. With the rain will come gusty south/southeasterly winds and MVFR to IFR ceilings. Rain will clear late this afternoon from 4 to 10pm. As it does, ceilings will slowly improve into the evening, eventually going SCT. Winds however will begin to shift to the west as a cold front arrives. This is particularly true at KDVL, where the front will be passing through by late evening. This front will keep winds elevated into the overnight period. Winds gusting in excess of 40kts by the end of the period for KDVL and perhaps KGFK.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054. MN...None.