textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog will develop again tonight. The chances for wintry mix this evening into tonight along with any associated impacts has greatly diminished.

- Accumulating snow and reduced visibility from heavy falling snow will impact our region Tuesday night into Thursday. There is a 50% chance of warning impacts along and north of Highway 200.

- Above average temperatures will continue into early this week. While this will cause the snowpack to melt, there is a low chance for hydrological impacts in the southern Red River Valley.

..Hydrological Impacts from Warm Temperatures

Temperatures have been well above average the past few days, especially in southeastern ND where today values have touched on 50 degrees. These warm temperatures will continue into early this week, which will continue to melt the existing snowpack. Some tributaries in the southern Red River basin are already responding by gradual rise in river levels. Webcams of river ice also show swelling of river ice as well as liquid water on top of ice (namely Bois De Sioux near Doran MN).

While the snow water equivalent in the existing snowpack is not expected to drive hydrological impacts alone, impacts may ensue should sufficiently high enough rain fall on these same areas with this upcoming precipitation Tuesday into Thursday. River level guidance from HEFS in some areas like the southern Red River, and tributaries in southeast ND and west-central MN, there is around a 10% chance for river levels to reach into Minor flood stage by late next week. Again, this impact is contingent upon these areas receiving rain amounts exceeding half an inch, received in a short amount of time - of which most of this rainfall will turn to runoff due to seasonable frost layer still present in area soils.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1124 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are currently prevailing across eastern ND and northwest MN. Skies are clearing as mid level clouds (7000-10000 FT AGL) move east and surface high pressure builds back into the region behind a weak cold front.

As high pressure settles in, along with clear skies and light winds, ample low level moisture from recent daytime snow melt sets the stage for fog and low stratus development once again in the 6-12Z period. There should be at least brief periods of IFR at all TAF sites in the 10-14Z period, however confidence is lower in ND regarding coverage/duration of LIFR or even VLIFR vis/ceilings from dense fog (could remain more variable). There is a more consistent signal for dense fog in northwest MN, and while winds eventually shift to the east-southeast and increase to around 10kt in ND they may remain lighter in MN and the pattern more stagnant Monday. This could result in any pockets of fog lingering longer into the early afternoon period at KTVF and KBJI.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054. MN...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024.