textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Falling and blowing snow will lead to impacts during the holiday travel period Tuesday, particularly from the southern Devils Lake basin, southern Red River Valley, into west- central Minnesota.

- Much colder temperatures are expected from Wednesday onward, along with several low chances for snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 627 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Starting to see some digging of the wave in eastern Montana with widespread snow evident from observations in northeast Montana. This low will continue to propagate and slightly dig over the next several hours towards our area. Ahead of this wave, there is a large swath of radar returns, however water vapor and observations confirm that precipitation is struggling to reach the ground, so saturation initially will be necessary to get precipitation to the surface. Regardless, impacts to the D evils Lake Basin are expected to begin a little after midnight, spreading eastward through the early morning hours.

..Well below average temperatures, precipitation potential

All ensemble guidance agree beyond Wednesday will be more winter-like, with below average temperatures staying below freezing, and potentially dipping below zero late this week into the next. There are varying solutions that continue intermittent waves of light precipitation over the Northern Plains into Upper Midwest, with a baroclinic zone lingering nearby. Weak wave traveling along this baroclinic zone may introduce periodic chances of snow to our area late this week.

Some ensemble guidance still depicts a notable wave ejection out of the West into the central CONUS late this week into early next week. Should this occur, additional opportunities for potential winter impacts would ensue. However, uncertainty continues even further into this period, particularly in regards to precipitation potential. Thus predictability and confidence is too low to comment in more details with respect to winter impacts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Aviation conditions will begin to deteriorate after midnight, but until then expect generally VFR conditions and light winds. Ceilings will gradually fall through the evening into the overnight, eventually becoming MVFR to IFR by 12z. Accompanying these ceilings will be light to moderate snowfall, eventually heavy at times although whether TAF sites are impacted has a lower predictability, impacting visibilities to IFR and LIFR. The greatest chances for heavy snow and attached LIFR conditions will be FAR and regions across southeast ND and west-central MN. Blowing snow will also accompany snowfall as gusts approach 25-40 knots from the north. Depending on how much snow hits the ground, blowing snow may prolong impacts after falling snow ends. Flight categories should remain at least MVFR across all TAF sites by the end of the TAF period with lingering IFR at FAR and BJI.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday for NDZ006-014-015-024-026. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ027>030-038-039-049-052-053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night for MNZ001>003-013>017-022-023-027-029-030- 040. Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night for MNZ024-028-031-032.