textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat advisory may be needed for some portions of eastern North Dakota into the Red River valley Sunday afternoon.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 60 mph would be the primary threats.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected today and Sunday across north central Minnesota. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions may develop in these areas Monday and Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 410 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

High pressure moving into the area today. Light winds all day today and with that there is patchy fog around at sunrise. Other than that a warmer day today with smoke forecasts indicating the surface smoke and upper level smoke not much of a factor today. Sunday will be a warm to hot day with highs widespread in the lower 90s and with dew pts mid 60s to around 70 heat indices of around 100 is forecast for much of eastern ND into RRV with WBGT in the low 80s. So heat advisory may be needed Sunday afternoon.

This warm to hot airmass is out ahead of a cold front that will move into southern Manitoba into central ND roughly near a Portage la Prairie to Rugby to west of Bismarck area Sunday evening. Scattered storms are anticipated to form along it with to our west and move into the area Sunday night. How long severity will last into the overnight is in question but sufficient 0-6 km shear of 45-55 kts (via NAM) should be enough to main severe risk thru 06z as storms move thru NE ND into the northern RRV.

Kept user requested SPS for this afternoon and early evening for forested areas of NW MN due to near critical fire weather conditions.

..Fire Weather Saturday through Tuesday

There continues to be concerns regarding very dry fuels in forested areas by fire weather partners/fuels experts in MN specifically regarding Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Hubbard counties in our CWA. Warmer temperatures and RH around 40% may be enough for any fire starts to spread rapidly in forested areas across those counties even with less winds as forecast, and near critical fire weather conditions are expected there both Saturday and Sunday afternoons and early evenings (SPS currently out for Saturday periods). As the cold stronger trough in Canada approaches early in the week, along with the strong cold front, surface gradient increases along with stronger mixed layer winds during periods of lowest RH values (30- 45%) Monday and Tuesday. This raises the potential for Critical Fire Weather conditions/RFW conditions to develop and those periods are being closely monitored.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 701 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Patchy ground fog will burn off by 14z. Otherwise a light wind day today mainly west or northwest 4-8 kts. Few cirrus around today into tonight with wind overnight southeast.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.