textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light rain showers and drizzle are expected through this evening, with damp conditions during the main Trick-or- Treat period.

- Widespread rain is expected across the region Monday into Tuesday, with high chances for at least 1" of rainfall across southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota.

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue, particularly Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A slow moving shortwave undercutting the upper ridge is expected to move to the south of our CWA today with increasing low level moisture due to increasing south-southeastly flow. Periods of stratus, scattered light rain or drizzle, and light fog should increase in coverage through the day. Actual coverage of measurable rain may remain isolated to scattered with a spotty signal in CAMs, however sounding continue to show deep enough saturation with forcing driven primarily from WAA within the saturated layer which could result in areas of drizzle developing and unfortunately lingering through the evening period. Early this morning there may be a few pockets of dense radiational fog, however once the stratus arrives the trend would be for mainly drizzle or light fog this afternoon into the overnight. While not a soaking rain today, damp conditions and minor visibility reductions won't make Trick-or-Treating very pleasant.

Forecast for a wetting and potential soaking rain is still on track for early next week, with high chances for at least 1" rainfall Monday-Tuesday. NBM shows a 60-80% probability across the southern Red River Valley into west central MN for that 48hr period. There is still a high chance for light to moderate rain farther north, so impacts to outdoor plans would still be expected even if amounts aren't as high.

..Rain Event Monday/Tuesday

Getting into early to mid next week, ensemble guidance is mostly in agreement on a persistent deformation band of rain as an upper shortwave trough in the Southwest translates into the Central Plains. While the best forcing looks to remain south of our area, there could be enough influence from this feature to bring the next round of light to moderate rain into the forecast, heavily favoring the southern zones. A few ensemble members keep Grand Forks and points north mostly dry given a further south storm track. Monday-Tuesday Night (48 hour) probabilities for at least a half inch of rainfall range from around 80% in Fergus Falls down to 40% for Langdon at this time. A lack of cold air behind the system results in near zero chance for frozen precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

MVFR stratus has already overspread southeast ND and parts of west central MN and is continuing to spread north, which should eventually overspread all TAF sites this morning in eastern ND and northwest MN. Scattered light showers are expected this afternoon and early evening with best coverage in southeast ND and west central MN, however even at locations that do not see showers light drizzle/mist and eventually light fog may develop this evening continuing into Sunday morning. IFR ceilings (some areas of LIFR) should also eventually overspread the region this evening and continue through the end of the TAF period. There is a signal in guidance for ceiling impacts (MVFR) to linger well after the current TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.