textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions develop today with wind gusts to 50 mph across parts of northeast North Dakota and the northern Red River Valley in Minnesota.

- Next strong or severe storm chance is later Friday for parts of far southeast North Dakota into west central and northwest Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 452 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

700-300 mb flow aloft is southwest as upper low is moving northeast to north of Regina SK. An area of MVFR ceilings have been expanding from far SE ND into NW MN. An area of mid clouds and some light rain showers have been from Bismarck up thru Devils Lake to Langdon the past 1-3 hours. They are moving northeast as well. Unsure how long these light showers will last and if they will eventually track east with time this morning.

Kept the wind advisory previously issued for today in place but did alter the start time. Kept 15z for Devils Lake basin but did delay until 18z for the north RRV as winds speeds will take a bit of time to reach advisory levels in the north valley.

..Severe Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Risk

Ongoing showers and embedded thunderstorms have remain weaker in a much more elevated airmass featuring skinny CAPE profiles but strong effective shear. Current activity developed with the nose of a LLJ and elevated WAA in the 850-700 MB layer and besides heavy rain/lighting it may only feature a marginal hail threat. Expansive cloud cover is also lingering, which may lower our window for surface based thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

Surface pattern indicates surface troughing over western ND, with several fronts intersecting near Dickinson. The deepening of this surface low and position/timing of these fronts before sunset will be critical for any potential supercell development to our west that may track into the Devils Lake Basin/eastern ND during the evening hours. Forcing is much more diffuse before the main trough starts shifting east later this evening/overnight, so coverage/initiation carries more uncertain. Still, within the warm sector where clearing develops decent instability profiles may coincide with strongly veered hodographs/strong shear favorable of supercells and a conditional risk for hail around the size of golf balls and a conditions risk for tornado development. Some CAMs (mainly runs of the HRRR) have supported supercell developing to our west and potentially tracking east into our west. The farther east and the later activity lingers/tracks activity will tend to become weaker with more of a marginal hail risk.

Higher PWATs in place raises potential for heavy rain rates with thunderstorm activity once again as with previous days, and any slower moving/training clusters could lead to localized flooding.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 712 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

To start off today there is a band of lower MVFR and IFR ceiling southeast ND thru NW MN. West of it is some mid clouds then clear west of DVL. The lower clouds will clear out but for some areas such as Bemidji it will take perhaps til late morning. Winds today will become more westerly and increase with gusts over 30-35 kts GFK and DVL this afternoon before diminishing a bit after dark. Will need to watch as well some MVFR clouds around the upper low moving into NW ND at 12z as they will likely skirt the border and may affect DVL for a time today.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-027-029-030. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006-007-014- 015-024-026-028-054. MN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004-007.