textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday night, for hazard large hail and damaging winds.

- There is a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail, with the potential for a few tornadoes.

UPDATE

Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Mostly clear skies prevail across most areas this morning, with temperatures in the 60s. Winds are starting to increase out of the south to southeast, but are generally in the range of 7-12 mph. Overall, the forecast remains on track this morning.

..Severe Weather Risk Monday

Initially there is a lower risk for ongoing strong/marginally severe storms early Monday morning, though activity may remain highly elevated and marginal CAPE/shear lowers confidence in impacts initially. The main result of any ongoing convection would be what lingering impact mid level clouds have on convective evolution Monday afternoon/evening. Better forcing with the main wave favors the north while the cold front passing northwest to southeast places the region of better BL moisture pooling/instability in the warm sector to our south-southeast. Cloud cover could delay initiation in the region with more robust instability and shear ahead of the front where capping may already be playing a role in limiting local initiation. This is even more accounting for the signal for increasing smoke aloft from the Pacific NW arriving with the trough. The presence of broader forcing/convergence and a window where good instability and strong shear will be present at least creates a scenario for supercells or more organized severe clusters, so this will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites this morning. Mid level smoke is possible starting around midday, especially at KDVL. Winds will gradually increase out of the south with sustained winds this afternoon ranging from 15-20 knots, and gusts upwards of 30 knots. Winds are expected to remain elevated through late this evening and into the early overnight period; however, gusts will become less frequent overnight. As gusts taper off, low level wind shear could impact KDVL, KGFK, and KFAR.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.