textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe storms early this morning, then additional scattered storms later today. All hazards are possible Monday.

- Heat Advisory in effect Monday: Noon to 8pm for the Southern Red River Valley and west central Minnesota.

- Potential for heat impacts mid-week and into the Fourth of July weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Updates this morning include a severe thunderstorm watch for southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing in central South Dakota, and will continue to move rapidly to the northeast this morning. Wind gusts over 100 mph have been reported with these storms, and while there is some uncertainty regarding their strength once they enter southeast North Dakota, it is worth noting that the environment remains rather supportive of severe thunderstorms through much of the day.

UPDATE Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Storms that developed over central ND have moved into the Devils Lake Basin, with one particularly strong supercell tracking through the area. Currently on a downward swing in strength, but will continue to monitor as it continues to track northeastward, exiting off into Canada during the next few hours. Our far southern counties could see some impacts from a thunderstorm complex coming out of SD, probably after sunrise. After that activity passes through, there could be additional thunderstorm development as low pressure deepens over the Red River Valley tomorrow.

UPDATE Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Thunderstorms have largely failed to materialize across eastern ND this evening though a cluster in central ND may eventually propagate NE into the Devils Lake Basin if they become more surface based in follow the Bunkers Right vector. Otherwise storms should remain west of our area until near sunrise when a cluster/line of thunderstorms will move into our southern forecast area with wind (potentially significant if you trust solutions like the HRRR) and large hail as well.

..Severe storm potential Monday

While there is a deft in features to help force thunderstorms to life today, much better forcing will come tonight and Monday as a surface low pressure deepens within the eastern Dakotas, propagating northward into Canada by Monday afternoon. Additionally, richer low level moisture (comprised of surface dew points in the mid to upper 70s) will likely overspread portions of eastern ND and northwest into west-central MN. This is also a result of the jet aloft overspreading these regions, increasing overall shear.

Latest guidance offers a couple of scenarios that could unfold:

1) Well developed severe storms move out of South Dakota into eastern ND traveling northeast. These storms would be capable of large hail (perhaps very large hail in excess of 2 inches) and gusty winds (perhaps very gusty winds up to 80 mph). These storms start elevated in altitude and nature, becoming more surface based into the afternoon. This would eventually introduce potential for tornadoes among other hazards like large hail and gusty winds. Given the very unstable airmass and strong shear, couldn't rule out strong tornadoes (EF-2+). Thunderstorms begin to exit to the north and east late afternoon into early evening.

2) Overnight thunderstorms within SD diminish before reaching ND, allowing a lull period in the morning. This is before robust thunderstorm development near the surface low that propagates north through our area by early afternoon. This activity will likely reach severe thresholds, potentially significantly severe - especially if storms can remain more discrete and surface based. This would keep large to very large hail and risk for tornadoes at the forefront of hazards, with an attendant isolated damaging wind risk as well. In this scenario, strong tornadoes again can't be ruled out (EF-2+).

Again, both scenarios hold the risk for tornadoes (potentially strong). At this time, relatively higher chance for tornadoes exists near and just ahead of the surface low within northeast ND to northwest MN during the afternoon.

Uncertainty still exists in overall convective evolution that would dictate storm mode as well as whether or not storms would be more surface based or elevated. More elevated storms would have a hail-forward hazard, whereas surface based storms would allow for all hazards.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Conditions this morning range from VFR at KDVL to IFR at KBJI. Today's impacts will depend heavily on convective activity, which will enter the area starting around 13-14Z.

IMPACTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A complex of severe thunderstorms could impact KFAR this morning, with a chance for damaging wind gusts associated with this line of severe storms. Added a TEMPO for this feature due to the intensity of the ongoing system, as well as the impact chances. This same complex will move northeast into the vicinity of KBJI if it is able to stay organized. Although it should be weakening, aviation impacts are possible between 17Z and 20Z depending on the forward speed. Amendments will follow as we gauge the progression of the system.

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region today, outside of this morning's severe thunderstorm complex. This could potentially impact most TAF sites this afternoon as coverage is expected to be scattered. Hazards today could include damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ039-053. MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-024-027>032-040.