textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Pattern remains active with multiple chances for accumulating snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Increased cloud cover a bit as there has been more mid and high clouds even south of the main frontal boundary just north of the international border. Even with clouds in and out, southwest winds and warm air advection have boosted readings into the lower 60s in southeastern ND.

..EXTENDED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

The period will remain active with highly amplified flow across the CONUS. We remain situated in the northern periphery of a very large cutoff low with 500mb flow approaching 100 knots. This is contributing to our frequent changes in temperature and frequent chances for light precipitation. We are stuck in this pattern because of a low over the Baja of California currently rotating on its own. There is high confidence that this will eventually kick out northeastward, but until then expect more of these quick moving events and oscillations in temperature.

The first chance for precipitation after today will be Tuesday as strong frontogenesis works eastward embedded within the flow. Cyclonic vorticity advection isn't particularly strong, but the strong mesoscale forcing should create some unorganized banding of snowfall across our south. Due to the mesoscale nature of this, there is high uncertainty in the location of this, but it does appear like accumulating snow will be likely somewhere in the southern half of our area. Moisture content is fairly light so the reasonable worst case scenario would be areas receiving up to 4 inches of snow, but the most likely range is between 0 and 3 inches of snowfall. If synoptic forcing does improve, however, then these totals could go up. Regardless of this, it is not a guarantee that areas will receive snow given the mesoscale banding nature as stated above, so stay tuned for further updates.

We finally start to see the cutoff low over the southwest kick out, which will force ridging to develop to our west. This brings with it the chance for a clipper system that looks to deepen as it progresses eastward. This brings the threat for accumulating snow with the warm air advection region ahead of the main low and gusty winds on the backside, but any blowing snow impacts are going to have to come from either falling snow (low predictability) or snow on the ground which should be extremely crusted over so this is very unlikely to cause any issues as well. As such, the probability for warning type impacts is very low with only a low chance for advisory impacts, which should mainly arise from accumulating snow.

Finally, there is a strong ensemble agreement for a system next weekend but with very low predictability in impacts based on model spread in location. Right now, stay tuned as this one would have the best shot for higher moisture content based on the upper flow pattern, which does create the potential for additional accumulating snow impacts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

VFR conditions continue with mainly mid and high clouds moving in from the west. Some rain showers possible later this evening at all of the more northerly airports as a cold front drops down. Will continue to include prob30 mention for all except KFAR for these showers. The front will shift winds to the northwest, remaining fairly breezy and with some low level wind shear as winds off the deck will shift a bit faster than the surface flow. Some gusts to over 20 kts will remain into the overnight, then start to diminish a bit later in the period. Some MVFR ceilings will start to move into some locations behind the front for a time tomorrow, although exact timing is still a bit uncertain.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.