textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon into the early evening, and may develop again Tuesday and Wednesday mainly across northwest Minnesota.

- Isolated strong thunderstorms may develop late Tuesday with hail, wind, and lightning. - Well above normal temperatures are expected this week, with near record highs again Tuesday.

..Isolated strong thunderstorms Tuesday

CAMs support the signal in global models/ensembles that scattered thunderstorms should develop as the CAP weakens near the frontal zone stalled over our CWA late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Steep mid level lapse rates should be in place, and guidance that favors Tds over 60F also show more robust thermodynamic profiles and the potential for MUCAPE values to exceed 2000 J/KG. Shear is trickier as initially weaker flow under the ridge axis limits effective shear (generally 25kt or less) and convection may remain more pulsy in nature. However there is a signal for a building LLJ (mainly in ND) during the evening hours and hodographs/effective shear 30kt+ and even with lower CAPE values in the 1000-15000 J/KG this could support a risk for marginally severe hail, though coverage would be limited.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR through the period. As a cold front moves through (no temperatures wont drop) winds will slowly turn North this evening then easterly through tomorrow. Winds generally 5-10kts but a few spots including KDVL may see sustained winds to 15kts and gusts up to 25kts tomorrow. CU while possible will be based around 8-10kft and a non-factor for operations. Lastly there is a chance for some isolated thunderstorms after 21z Tuesday but predictability in location remains low.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.