textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for heat-related impacts Sunday, with additional heat impacts Tuesday and Wednesday.

- There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday evening and overnight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, with lesser chances for hail and tornadoes.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms along and south of the International Border Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.

- Additional thunderstorm chances next week, with the potential for severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

..Severe Thunderstorm Chances Sunday through Tuesday

Sunday Evening: Thunderstorms are expected to form in western and central North Dakota Sunday afternoon and early evening. These storms will travel east as the evening progresses, approaching eastern North Dakota during the mid to late evening. At this time, the most likely mode will favor linear and/or line segments in eastern North Dakota, but will be downstream of antecedent supercells that undergo upscale development. Very strong low and mid level lapse rates will drive initiation ahead of a cold front, with CAPE values ranging anywhere from 2000 J/Kg to 3000 J/Kg. Environmental support runs out rather quickly as storms approach the Red River Valley, thus confidence in the eastern extent of strong storms looks minimal at this time. Monday Night: Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday evening and persist into the overnight hours. The primary hazard will be large hail and a lower risk for damaging wind gusts. These storms will be driven by strong mid level lapse rates as well as 0-6 km shear upwards of 45-50 knots.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Moisture advection remains strong heading into Tuesday as low level flow increases out of the south. SBCAPE in model soundings ranges from 3000 J/Kg to 4000 J/Kg, with low to mid level shear ranging from 20 to 30 knots. Will need to watch this very closely in the coming days as the pattern continues to support additional severe thunderstorm potential on Wednesday. At this time, model soundings support supercell storm mode both days, with all hazards possible.

AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

While skies remain VFR through the period though the winds and namely the gusts will be problematic at times. Winds SE through the period at all sites with gusts topping 30kts for DVL from near 11z/12z through the end of the period. For GFK and FAR gusts look likely to top 30kts from 15z onwards and there is a chance for TVF as well but confidence is lower up there with gusts currently forecast to top out in the 25-30kt range. There should be a period of LLWS as well across DVL and maybe GFK tonight while the boundary layer is decoupled.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.