textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Period of rain tonight into Tuesday morning for southeast North Dakota into Minnesota. Heaviest precipitation is likely to stay southeast of a Valley City to Red Lakes line.

- A brief mix or change to wet snow overnight for parts of the area, but light precipitation rates and warm ground should inhibit accumulation.

- Seasonable high temperatures in the 40s and 50s through midweek, turning slightly warmer by the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Precip is becoming more widespread across the southern forecast area with sleet and rain being the main ptypes over the past 2 hours. A transition to snow along and north of a line can be expected from Ransom to Steele county with the Red River Valley likely remaining too warm for snow (very wet/melted dendrites if it does occur) east into the valley expect Sleet to continue for another hour or two with warming southerly winds pushing us back to rain by 2-3am. Snow accumulations look to be minimal especially on pavement where surfaces are still well above freezing per DOT sensors but on grassy/elevated surfaces a quick dusting near Cooperstown/Valley City to maybe on inch in south central North Dakota remains feasible.

..Rain Tonight into Tuesday

A stronger mid level wave is organizing into a hybrid type system with large scale ascent increasing across our CWA south to north late this afternoon through Tuesday. Initially drier air in northeast boundary layer flow will delay measurable rainfall, deeper moisture will support 700mb deformation banding of rainfall across the southern zones tonight. Stronger areas of frontogenesis will tend to be transient making coverage of higher totals 0.5"+ limited. Better coverage of rain will tend to initially be along and south of US Highway 200, though the track of the mid/upper low will eventually allow rain to overspread northwest/north central MN. Moderate to high probabilities (50-80%) for 0.25" or more rainfall are shown by NBM/HREF across southeast ND and west central MN, with a 30-50% chance in similar areas for greater than 0.5" of rainfall. Temperatures and precipitation rates tonight overall do not support any accumulating snowfall, just novelty flakes mixing in. If sufficient banding and dynamic cooling occurs, a light dusting on grassy/elevated surfaces cannot be ruled out (especially west of the Red River Valley).

AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

MVFR conditions are overspreading the southern forecast area with FAR not currently MVFR at the time of writing but likely to be MVFR if not IFR by 1am. What was previously forecast to be LIFR has now diminished and is more likely to be IFR through much of tomorrow with some drizzle likely to hang on with the low clouds even after the main rain/wintry mix exits the area in the morning. VIS reductions remain driven by precip and thus improve across the area by noon tomorrow. Winds continue to back through the period from the east to south by tomorrow night.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.