textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected.

..Synopsis

Split flow is aloft is in place across the central US with dry/warm west-northwest flow over the Northern Plains as the more active northern jet stream and storm track remains in Canada. This is resulting in above average temperatures (close to 2 standard deviations from seasonal normals for highs) and dry/breezy conditions.

There is a trough that deepens Tuesday-Wedesnay that brings a brief period of stronger north-northwest flow aloft and a quick moving shortwave trough and cold front. The track of organized forcing is east of our CWA with the ma and deeper dry air preceding the arrival even the subset of ensemble members that show rain are very light (less than 0.1"). The consensus in ensembles with that system is for no measurable precipitation (may remain virga or sprinkles). The main result will be a brief return to seasonable temperatures Wednesday into Friday.

There is a strong signal in all ensembles than upper level ridging and anomalous heights/temperatures aloft (NAEFS percentiles 90% or higher/SD 1.5-2) by next weekend and early the next week. The net result will be continued dry conditions and a return to above average temperatures that my extend well beyond the end of the 7 day period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN through the TAF period. There is an area of MVFR stratus over north central MN but this is remaining northeast of the vicinity of KBJI and starting to break up due to daytime mixing and drier air already in place in northwest MN.

Winds are starting to decrease below 12kt and shift from the northwest to west as a weak surface trough axis is moving into eastern ND/northwest MN. This should bring a period of light and variable winds this afternoon and evening before southerly flow 10-13kt increases on the back side of this boundary late evening/overnight. Eventually a front passes and gradient and winds aloft increase Monday resulting in increasing westerly flow and increasing gusts as mixing picks up after sunrise. There is a low chance for gusts around 30kt Monday afternoon in eastern ND (after the current TAF period).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.