textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions today in northwest and west central Minnesota. Near critical conditions may develop in southeast North Dakota if gusty winds overlap with low relative humidity.

- Additional chances for near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected through mid-week.

- An unsettled pattern brings rain and thunderstorm chances to the region Thursday and rain and snow chances Friday into next weekend.

..FIRE WEATHER

Widespread warm temperatures through the week combined with limited moisture return are expected to create near critical to critical fire weather conditions through the week.

For tomorrow, southerly winds are expected to increase with sustained winds generally between 20-30 mph, with occasional gusts to 40 mph by late morning/early afternoon as a strong southerly jet propagates east. Moisture return from southerly winds is expected to be minimal with dewpoints ranging in the low to mid 30s, allowing for relative humidity values to approach 20% by mid to late afternoon. The jet max is expected to be over northwest Minnesota when peak mixing will occur, so the expectation is for critical conditions (low RH and high wind gusts) to remain in northwest Minnesota. Having said that, critical conditions could spread westward into eastern North Dakota if winds overlap with low relative humidity. At a minimum, expect near critical conditions to develop in southeast North Dakota. Towards the mid to late afternoon, a weak cold front may bring relative humidity values up to 30-50% briefly, but a substantial wind shift of 90-150 degrees is expected behind this, so fire concerns are expected to continue.

With limited precipitation expected through the midweek and ridging amplifying across the Northern Plains, ERC maximums should continue to rise with HRB values indicating ongoing dead fuels. These combined with relative humidity values through the week lends to expectations that at least near critical conditions can be expected through Wednesday every afternoon with the potential to push into critical conditions on days with gustier winds. At this time, the greatest probability timeframe for that is Wednesday afternoon. While NBM relative humidities appear fairly high (25-30%), this is mainly due to limited CAM impact on NBM output and will likely fall towards more critical criteria as we get closer to mid-week. The heightened fire weather pattern will eventually end as widespread precipitation pushes into the region late week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Winds the main issue today. South to southwest winds will pick up quickly and gust 30-35 kts at times at GFK late morning/early afternoon before diminishing. Gusty winds as well at DVL this morning and at Fargo airport as well midday and afternoon. Mid and high clouds this morning...less cloud cover this afternoon and mainly clear tonight. Weak surface trough to move into DVL mid afternoon and move east this evening with winds turning northwest all areas.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027>032-040.