textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered t-storms today until sunset over the area. There is a 1 out of 5 risk of brief severe storms in southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. But any storm is capable of heavy rain, lightning, and small hail. - Level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk Monday as a frontal boundary moves through.

..Severe chances Sunday night and again Monday

The shortwave coming over the top of the upper ridge late Sunday could bring some storms to north central ND that could clip our far northwestern counties. HREF updraft helicity probabilities are not too impressive with only a few members showing any paintballs in Towner county, but can't rule out a few isolated cells. Better, but still marginal chances for severe storms will be Monday as the frontal boundary sags south into our area. Ensemble mean CAPE according to the NBM gets over 2000 J/kg by Monday afternoon and deep layer shear increases to 35 to 40 kts. Still a few days away, but if the trends that the NBM shows hold Monday looks like a fairly busy convective day.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact terminals this evening but there is a low predictability on actual impacts. Updates may be necessary through the early evening as these storms continue. Isolated MVFR continues at BJI, but the expectation is for this to diminish later on this evening. These storms will diminish towards sunset, giving way to VFR conditions and generally light winds, which will prevail through the end of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.