textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- A more active and cooler pattern arrives next week, but the predictability of specific impacts is low.

..Next Week

Over the past 24-48 hours have noticed a bit faster solution in regards to the arrival of precip chances and arrival of colder air. Looking through the various GFS, ECMWF operational runs and their 00z ensembles there are wide differences. ECMWF overall maintains a more progressive easterly track through southern Canada, 00z ECMWF operational run is on the high end of moisture with snow in Canada and brief snow on backside of system Tuesday night as it moves out. Ahead of it, if the low tracks through southern Canada Tuesday daytime in the mild airmass still with chances for light rain with colder air moving in from the northwest in the afternoon. GFS and its ensembles and also the AI-GFS from 00z is indicating a potential merger of an upper wave moving northeast from central Plains into Wisconsin Wednesday and brings the northern 500 mb short wave a bit more south and meets up with this wave over eastern Minnesota and potential heavier snowfall on back side Tuesday night-Wednesday. The 00z operational GFS is quite wintry but looking at the GEFS plumes indicate the operational run is at the top end of all of the ensemble runs in terms of amount of snow. And thus 00z GFS and its snowfall showing several inches over the entire area will be seen as an outlier. The German ICON model 00z run is weaker with all parameters. A model blend of NBM was used keeping the main focus north of the border, though not as intense as the operational ECMWF. With this solution, impacts remain highly uncertain with very low predictability. WSSI-P from WPC shows a 20-30 percent chance for advisory type impacts Tuesday night right along the Canadian border. NBM probs for 3 inches or more is 15 percent along the international border. WPC QPF follows NBM QPF with any QPF limited to low amounts and limited to northern areas.

So in other words, still several days out and will continue to monitor over the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Skies continues to slowly clear this morning with IFR ceilings in BJI and MVFR in FAR and TVF. FAR and TVF clearing out in the next few hours with BJI potentially becoming scattered by 4-5pm. Other than timing out the thinning and lifting clouds for IFR/MVFR/VFR conditions winds will be turning slowly NW to W to SW overnight with calm winds in the late overnight into tomorrow morning. Minimal aviation concerns after 6pm through the end of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.