textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warming to above normal.

- Multiple chances for wintry weather over the next week but confidence remains low beyond this weekend.

..Synopsis

Currently dominant Hudson Bay troughing to our east and troughing along the Atlantic coast will phase and work east/northeast into the north Atlantic giving way for the current highly amplified western ridging to deamplify and work east with flow aloft becoming more zonal as a result this weekend. At the same time ensembles strongly agree that a low currently evident in water vapor imagery off the California coast near Los Angeles will become a well defined cutoff low working southeast down the Baja Peninsula along the eastern periphery of subtropical Pacific ridging. This results in split flow across the central and eastern CONUS with signals for a few weak waves working across the weaker northern stream flow Saturday through Tuesday. However with modest 850-700mb flow across the rockies moisture is likely to be lacking and notable QPF from any given wave is thus a lower probability.

- Saturday Night

A quick but weak clipper will pass to our east more affecting northeast Minnesota but weak forcing in the low levels where near saturated profiles exist should initially promote some light snow and perhaps a wintry mix but that aspect is very low confidence and depends on minute changes in low level temperature profiles. Should things warm and more of mix does transpire travel could become slick from Roseau/Baudette down to the Bemidji area. Snowfall totals will be light with just a dusting to couple tenths possible for north central Minnesota.

- Sunday

A very shallow but seemingly well modeled shortwave then moves east along the Canadian border Sunday with warm profiles leading to p- type concerns. Really not a lot of confidence in this system but due to models all agreeing on the timing and placement of the wave for the most part it is worth an introduction to the forecast here.

- Tuesday

By Tuesday ensembles are starting to show differences in the potential placement of steering features and thus give us a notable north to south range of potential tracks along with still moderate timing disagreement for what could be a more robust wave. The main things we are confident in is the fact a wave is likely to bring QPF to the region Monday into Tuesday with up to 0.20" looking to be a reasonable max at this time with a resulting few inches of snow. With the track being west to east this would lead to a lower blowing snow risk than say a conventional clipper but likely greater than zero still. Will note that when looking at ensemble output dont mistake the low totals as high confidence with this being the result of track differences "washing out" the signal for higher totals as differing tracks with similar totals average out to a lower overall value. There also appears to be enough cold air on the backside of the Sunday wave that things will remain primarily snow with this wave.

Looking further ahead to the remainder of the week westerly flow in the low to mid levels should maintain a downsloping airmass off the Rockies and high plains leading to above average temperatures (average highs in the low 20s). Daily highs Sunday and beyond will typically be in the upper 20s to mid 30s though in days with true westerly winds eastern North Dakota may trend closer to the NBM 75th to 90th with our diminishing snowpack putting highs highs in southeast North Dakota more in the low to mid 40s range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

MVFR stratus lingering this afternoon for another few hours but showing signs of breaking up here even for areas like DVL and FAR before 00z. For other sites seeing some SCT low clouds remaining which may occasionally go BKN between now and 00z. Winds light through tonight with a wind shift to SE by 09z for all. Winds increasing after 12z Saturday with gusts over 20kts by the end of the period and BKN clouds returning by tomorrow afternoon especially for MN terminals after 15z but remaining above MVFR thresholds.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.