textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread dense fog may redevelop tonight into Wednesday morning.

- A winter storm will impact the Midwest this weekend. However for our area locally, up to 2 inches of snow and patchy blowing snow may occur.

..Weekend light snow and blowing snow

As alluded to in the Discussion above, a Colorado Low-type winter storm will develop within the Midwest this weekend. This is expected to occur with a southern branch shortwave trough departing the Southern Plains merging/interacting with a northern branch shortwave trough out of the Northern Plains.

The vast majority of ensemble guidance depicts this merging/interaction near the western Great Lakes region, keeping vast majority of accumulating precipitation east of our area. However, we will be under the influence of the northern branch shortwave trough before it merges with the southern branch. This will effectively bring light snow to our region, with most guidance keeping potential accumulations under 3 inches between Friday and Saturday.

Into Saturday, as the interaction between shortwaves increases, a gradually tightening pressure gradient will bring breezy northerly winds over our area. This will allow blowing and drifting snow to ensue. We do not anticipate significant impact from blowing snow due an expected snowpack to be largely locked in place from Wednesday's above freezing temperatures (although this may be something to keep an eye on should temperatures not reach above freezing as alluded to above).

Even if the snowpack stays blowable, a lack of more robust cold air advection, stronger winds aloft, and a lackluster pressure gradient/rise will limit how high winds will get. Current guidance keeps winds below 40 mph. With anticipated temperatures staying above zero combined with these winds, one could expect intermittent visibility reductions to half a mile in open country, particularly if falling snow is concurrent with these winds.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Impacts from low stratus and fog continue to bring IFR to LIFR conditions to eastern ND and northwest MN, with some clearing of the lower clouds/fog as drier air finally begins to erode this stubborn layer from the west-southwest. However, still a signal for another period of stratus/fog to redevelop with localized VLIFR conditions before "finally" MVFR and eventual VFR conditions arrive west to east through the night.

Considering how persistent this stratus/fog layer is and signal in some CAMs for a period of dense fog redevelopment, confidence continues to be low on timing of eventual prevailing VFR conditions during the first 6hr of the TAF period. The upstream trends in western/central ND and SD where VFR is prevailing, along with the increase in winds/flow tonight from those drier directions at least give some weight to how NBM and CAMs are trending towards VFR conditions later tonight/Wednesday morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.