textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- No significant weather related hazards through the end of the week.

..Synopsis

Fairly vigorous shortwave seen on water vapor loop rounding the back side of the upper trough and moving into ND. Regional radar shows some showers with the shortwave, with most of the significant returns up in Canada. NDAWN network has yet to show and precipitation in ND reaching the ground, and that fits the QPF forecasts for the most of the high resolution models. Very little instability across the area, so if any precipitation does reach the ground it will be little more than some light sprinkles. A stronger shortwave approaches tonight and moves into Manitoba and Ontario tomorrow, helping to push a cold front Thursday night into the forecast area. Many of the models try to develop some showers and thunderstorms out ahead of that boundary Thursday afternoon and evening, but CAPE values are expected to be in the 500-1000 J/kg and low level moisture not that great. Currently the HREF has some 20 to 30 percent probability for thunder, but updraft helicities indicating severe are pretty minimal. There does look to be some low level and elevated smoke moving into the area ahead of the front, so increased high cloud cover a bit along with some patchy smoke.

Friday looks fairly quiet with high pressure building in behind the front. Northwesterly flow aloft sets up for the weekend into the first part of the work week. Various weak embedded shortwaves could bring some precipitation chances, but all solutions look pretty light and timing and strength of such minor features is hard to tell at this point anyway. Temps look near seasonal values.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR conditions now and throughout the period with mid and high clouds above 10000 ft coming in and mostly impacting the northern TAF sites. Winds will gust out of the southwest around 20 kts at times this afternoon, but will lose their gusts around sunset.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.

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