textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. A few storms may be strong with gusts to 50 mph.

- Potential for near critical fire weather several days this week.

..Synopsis

Upper ridge that has been driving our region's weather for the past week or two has flattened some with the approach of a seasonably strong upper shortwave trough moving through ON into the northern Great Lakes region. This is allowing cooler, relatively drier air into the region from the north behind a series of cold fronts.

Behind these fronts today and tonight will allow temperatures to be closer to average, as well as bringing gusty northwest / north winds today, tonight, and Tuesday. Relatively cooler and drier air aloft atop of seasonable low level moisture combined with forcing aloft from the passing shortwave trough will allow widely scattered showers and storms to encroach upon our area from north to south, generally after 5 PM into this evening. Increased momentum in the lower to mid level portions of the cloud-bearing layer will allow gusty downdrafts resultant from storms - some of which may be in the 40 to 50 mph range.

Winds will stay gusty overnight behind a reinforcing cold front coincident with moderately strengthen surface pressure rises. Winds reinvigorate out of the north Tuesday afternoon with the help of daytime mixing and increased flow aloft lingering within the region.

Daytime RH values starting tomorrow and lasting into mid to late week are forecast in the 30-50% range. This combined with gusty winds tomorrow, and potentially more gusty winds late in the week combined with warming temperatures, will drive potential to see fire weather concerns. This is also driven by rapidly drying fuels within the region after recent spell of hot and dry conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

There is a medium chance for showers and storms between 00Z-06Z this evening. In addition to lightning, storms may bring gusts in the 30kt-45kt range.

Otherwise, gusty northwest eventually turning north winds 15-25kt will remain in the forecast through at least 06Z, with a secondary cold front moving north to south across the region late afternoon into evening shifting winds from northwesterly to more northerly.

SCT to BKN ceilings around 3-5kft will also linger this afternoon into evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.