textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms in west- central Minnesota this afternoon. Main hazard will be hail to the size of quarters.

- Intervals of precipitation are forecast through the work week. This includes a 30% chance of advisory level winter impacts on Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 856 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Update to Key Messages were made.

Scattered light rain showers are encroaching upon eastern ND from the west this morning. These showers will continue to push east through the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon, with additional, heavier rain showers forecast this afternoon into evening.

Heaping clouds today will limit how warm temperatures get, now forecast to remain in the 40s and 50s with the exception of west-central MN where temperatures push into the 60s.

UPDATE Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Patchy fog is being reported across parts of northwest Minnesota and the Red River Valley this morning, with low clouds elsewhere. Expect a continuation of occasional and brief low visibility this morning. Temperatures range from the low to mid 30s north of Highway 200, with 40s to the south.

UPDATE Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Continuing to keep the fog mention to patchy with no headlines needed, as visibility has been mostly in the 1 to 2 miles at the lowest. Next round of rain showers look to move in tomorrow morning as a weak vort approaches. Still some instability getting into our far southeastern counties tomorrow afternoon, although the CAMs have been trending further south with the convection they develop. HREF probabilities of around 10 percent clip parts of Grant and Otter Tail counties, and at this point the window for any severe in our area seems pretty narrow.

As for winter precip chances with the weekend system, the NBM continues to trend lighter with snow amounts, with probabilities of over 3 inches less than 20 percent. However, the chances for ice have increased to around 20 to 30 percent and any of that can cause impacts so will keep the possibility of advisory messaging the same.

..SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW

While the bulk of the severe weather threat is south of our area, there is the potential once more for severe thunderstorms in southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. A cold front will move through this evening, largely scouring away the majority of instability. The expectation for tomorrow is recovery in southern Minnesota, intensifying a surface warm front somewhere in that area. North of this warm front, elevated instability should continue to linger through tomorrow, bringing with it at least the potential for elevated supercells capable of large hail. While the surface pattern mostly favors surface based convection tomorrow afternoon well south, any variations in the location of the warm front will drive where impacts will be felt. As such, it is possible for areas like Grant County to have an increasing tornado threat if and only if the warm front is much further north than guidance currently shows. The most likely outcome, however, is for primarily a damaging hail threat from elevated storms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail at KDVL this morning, with IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility at all other TAF sites. Low stratus and BR will continue to impact aviation through at least 15Z as IFR stratus remains persistent in the post frontal air mass. Improvement could take shape later this afternoon; however, a broken MVFR deck is likely to develop during the late afternoon, with additional IFR ceilings and scattered showers likely by late evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.