textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms today. The main impacts for any storms that become severe will be ping pong ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph. Flash Flooding is also possible.

..Marginal risk for severe Monday

The ridge axis shifts east tomorrow and the flow aloft becomes southwesterly. Deep layer shear will be increasing up into the 40 to 50 kt range by tomorrow afternoon. But the instability becomes more uncertain. Some of the ensemble members don't have any surface based CAPE at all, but enough do that the mean CAPE into eastern ND is around 1500 J/kg. Much will depend on what exactly happens this evening and into the overnight. HREF and REFS updraft helicity probabilities have some chance, but not super impressive. At this point with all the unknowns the level 1 risk seems reasonable.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thunderstorms have become less numerous but scattered showers and isolated thunder remain across the region as of midnight. These should slowly wane and work east as the shortwave rounds the ridge into MN. In the meantime stratus will fill in over the next 6 hours (by 12z) and lead to widespread MVFR and IFR conditions. These will then briefly improve to low VFR or high MVFR with a more showers/thunder likely tomorrow afternoon. Winds also increasing tomorrow afternoon (by 15-18z) for all sites with peak gusts of 25-35kts (highest KFAR). Unpleasant flying weather persists.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.