textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers is expected this afternoon through tonight, bringing an additional few hundredths to two tenths of an inch across mainly southeastern North Dakota into western Minnesota.

- Overnight temperatures could drop into the low to mid 30s west of the Red River Valley tonight, and a frost advisory is in effect. Temperatures drop again to near freezing across all of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota Tuesday night.

..Temperatures into the 30s tonight

Continued cold air advection pushes 850mb and even 925mb temps in some areas down below 0 C tonight. While skies will remain cloudy and there will be at least a little bit of mixing from northwesterly winds, temperatures look quite cold by tomorrow morning. NBM has probabilities 80 percent and higher for temperatures to get below 36 degrees, and even the less bullish HREF has 40 to 50 percent. With the clouds and wind do not think we will get down as low as the base NBM had us, so tweaked lows up a bit. We should stay above 32, but even with not much actual frost occurring the 33 to 36 degree range west of the Red River Valley could cause some issues to sensitive plants. Went ahead and matched neighbors for a frost advisory tonight. It does look to clear out and go light for winds tomorrow night, so better chances for freeze and frost look likely Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Light to moderate rain is moving across eastern ND and northwest MN and will transition east of the region through 10Z. Vis within areas of rain is generally 3-6sm. IFR ceilings are expected to prevail across the region through at least 12Z, with improvement to MVFR by midday Tuesday and VFR by Tuesday evening (west to east). North to northwest winds 12-20kt are expected across much of the region, with periodic gusts around 25kt during the daytime period Tuesday. Winds should become light and variable with surface high pressure arriving Tuesday evening (along with clearing skies).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014-015- 024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054. MN...None.

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