textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 30% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds Friday to Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The 500 mb wave circulation went from just north of Bismarck thru Devils Lake area to Cavalier. Main deformation zone precip was just west of the upper low where rain then snow fell with pocket of heavy snow Rugby to Rolla and northern Towner county ND and northwest Cavalier county ND. 6 inches northeast of Rolla. That band of precip is moving out, with lingering rain showers to the south and east of the upper low in the north valley and far NW MN moving out midday. Thinking any snow risk is now in Canada.

UPDATE Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Rain showers starting to move into the western Devils Lake Basin as the next shortwave approaches. Also getting a few weak thunderstorms in the southern Red River Valley that are not handled well by CAMs but are with around 250 J/kg of MU CAPE. This activity will continue to push eastward across our area overnight, and many of the ensemble members transition at least part of the precipitation in northeastern ND and northwestern MN over to snow. 00Z HREF has 40 to 50 percent chances for an inch or more of snow, although fairly warm pavement temps will mute the impact. Will keep the SPS going as advisory level impacts seem less than 20 percent.

..Late week winter impact potential

Ensemble guidance continues to cluster toward a scenario that features heavy snow in one or two more consolidated systems' deformation zones. However, most guidance favors majority of this snow to remain in Canada. There is still a subset of guidance that brings snow into our area, mainly north of Highway 200. This includes snow accumulation up to 5 inches. Snow may also coincide with gusty winds to introduce impacts from blowing snow and reduced visibility into this scenario.

Additionally, ensembles now reveal a potential scenario that brings a second wave of precipitation and snow through the region on Saturday. This widens the window of when winter impacts may occur from solely Friday to now Friday into Saturday.

Ensemble guidance has also trended some what down on potential for warning level impacts from 6 or more inches of snow to be less than 10%. However, the chance for advisory level winter impacts remains at around 30%.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Precipitation and fog have ended, however low stratus (MVFR and pockets of IFR) over eastern ND and northwest MN. There is an expected clearing trend in this stratus layer from SD into southeast ND and eventually northeast ND through the afternoon and early evening (south to north), however northern and eastern locations in ND and west central MN may see stratus linger into the early evening. Additional stratus and the potential for light fog may redevelop late in the evening/overnight period over north central MN (best chances at KBJI). Increasing southerly winds late tonight into Thursday morning over eastern ND should help keep VFR conditions in place for those locations (limiting the potential for radiational fog/stratus).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.