textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence chances for strong to severe storms through Tuesday night.

- Seasonable weather with daily highs in the 70s and low 80s this week.

..Synopsis

Zonal flow across the northern plains continues through the week with transient shortwave activity. The axis of greatest instability looks to mainly stay south of the area keeping only general thunderstorm chances for our forecast area, but cant rule out some strong to severe storms through the period. As the Hudson Bay low begins to break down later in the week by Thursday, Montana/Western ND ridging amplifies with decent latitudinal differences among cluster analysis and degrading synoptic flow agreement overall by Friday. Scenarios range from riding over the area to SW flow or zonal/WNW flow flow across the Canadian prairies and northern plains. While the confidence in the long term evolution of the pattern is shaky the chance for significant weather impacts through next weekend still appears low even with a spread in models.

Best chance in the near term for impacts will be via thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, but overall the environment is not terribly concerning from a severe perspective. Maybe just some heavy rain and lightning with gusty winds and small hail. Per cluster analysis chances for greater than 0.10" are 40% or less for any given spot in a 24 hour period through Thursday. Precip chances look to increase for next weekend but that will depend on the how the synoptic pattern unfolds.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions through the period with scattered high clouds and smoke aloft. Winds under 10kts through the period with overall minimal impacts to aviation operations. Overnight winds become variable and nearly calm before. Tomorrow winds around 5kts through noon with variable directions across the area.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.