textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over parts of southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota this afternoon and early evening. Hail to 1 inch and wind gusts to 70 mph would be the main threats.

..Severe Thunderstorm Risk this afternoon and evening

There continues to be a signal within the CAM guidance and some cumulus development ahead of fropa in the central and some accas southern valley suggesting convection develops in lakes region this afternoon and early evening. Timing of this front seems on track from previous forecasts and when this lift or forcing is combined with peak heating and advection of better instability storms are expected to develop in that 5 to 7pm time frame. The strongest of these storms will be marginally severe capable of hail to an inch and winds at most to 70mph, given the dry soundings. Coverage of the severe threat is expected to be isolated at best and limited to just the lakes country and then points to the south and east.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

TS Prob30s limited to BJI otherwise VFR conditions and relatively WNW winds, some afternoon gusts nearing 20kts expected the rest of the day at the other TAF sites. Fargo remains a bit more uncertain as they remain ahead of the front but confidence enough to pull the mention of TS as fropa occurs by 20Z. Overnight winds lighten and become VRB under 10kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.