textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of west central Minnesota and far southeast North Dakota on Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for parts of the area from 10am through 7pm.

- An active weather pattern develops heading into next week, bringing the potential for winter impacts, especially Tuesday onward.

..Synopsis

Cold air retreats north and east this evening into Saturday as ridging builds into the Northern Plains. Strong, westerly 850mb winds bring much warmer temperatures into southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota on Saturday, with good mixing potential through the late morning and into the afternoon. The window for stronger gusts (up to 40 mph) will be somewhat narrow; however 25-30 mph gusts are supported through much of the midday through late evening period. These winds, in addition to very warm temperatures, will increase fire danger, especially for southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota. With this in mind, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 10am through 7pm Saturday. Further north, near critical fire weather will be possible across the central Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota. Sunday brings additional warm temperatures, with the ridge expected to flatten slightly, thus lowering the pressure gradient and supporting lower wind potential. Strong temperature gradients remain in place, with highs in the upper 30s along the International Border and near 60 in the southern Red River Valley.

Heading into next week, ensemble guidance shows multiple scenarios that bring precipitation into the area, with the potential for winter precipitation Tuesday onward through the end of the week. A strong cold front traverses the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with several ensemble members bringing wrap-around moisture into eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. The best chances will be along the International Border; however, there is still enough ensemble spread to justify the mention of solutions a bit further south. Another potential system shows up as we head into the period covering Thursday through Saturday. Ensemble guidance, as well as AI solutions, are in somewhat strong agreement regarding the development of a deep trough and area of low pressure. Moisture availability will be much higher with this system, so it is worth keeping an eye on as we head into next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail across much of the area this afternoon, with all sites experiencing at least intermittent lower ceilings. Occasional snow showers will continue to form and move from northwest to southeast through late this afternoon as they are convectively driven. Winds diminish heading into the evening hours, then gradually shift to the west, then south overnight. LLWS will be in the forecast heading into Saturday morning as a low level jet moves over the area, with winds out of the southwest. Some of this will mix down during the morning and into the early afternoon Saturday, with wind gusts expected to range from 25-30 knots, with occasional gusts approaching 40 knots.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ052- 053. MN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ024- 027>032-040.