textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening for portions of west central into north central Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 704 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Water vapor at 12z is showing a well defined vort max moving quickly east having moved over Fargo where t-storms did develop. Just north of Fargo a strip of nearly 0.20-0.35 inch of rain. That is moving east quickly and last of the precip will exit our MN cwa by 14z. Scattered to broken altocu behind it then clearing.

UPDATE Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

SPC Day 3 issued and updated key message. Location of where the severe risk will be all determines on timing of the cold front moving east thru the area along with the amount of low level moisture that advects northward. At the present time, the level 2 out of 5 risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts is from Bemidji to Fergus Falls to Wheaton MN and points east. Machine learning/AI forecasts do target the the level 2/5 slight risk area for later Friday. There is a non zero risk of a tornado in the slight risk area, but uncertainty if that is our area or just east/south.

..Severe Risk Friday Afternoon and Evening

Strong southerly flow should bring higher BL moisture back to the region, while strong westerly flow aloft overspreads the region as a trough passes along with a strong cold front. In the warm sector ahead of the front there is the potential for at least moderate CAPE values as steep mid level lapse rates will be in place, though capping may play a role in delayed initiation until the front and better synoptic ascent arrive. Timing of the front and forcing and any capping ahead of this will all play roles in determining coverage and ultimately impacts. Strong effective shear is forecast across the region, with hodographs in the warm sector supportive of supercells and very large hail or tornadoes (mesoscale details will ultimately play a role on how this pattern is realized). AI based systems that have shown good skill this season highlight higher probabilities for severe thunderstorms in our area, especially over west central MN which conceptually makes sense.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

CU has developed across eastern ND and northwest MN, with lowest bases in the 2500-3000 ft agl range, with prevailing heights generally 4000-9000 ft agl. The trend should be for VFR to prevail, though brief/localized MVFR cigs can't be ruled out early in the TAF period. West-northest winds 12-15kt (gusts 25kt or less) are expected this afternoon across the region. The CU should dissipate and the winds should drop off as we approach sunset following the standard diurnal trends and drier air and weaker surface gradient persists overnight into Thursday morning. Low pressure developing to the west should result in south to southwest winds increasing by midday (8-13kt). VFR conditions should prevail Thursday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.