textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Level 1 out of 5 severe risk tonight in the Devils Lake Basin with the potential for hail up to 1 inch.

- Level 1 out of 5 severe risk Monday afternoon with a primary risk for large hail along with secondary risk for strong winds and a tornado or two.

- Level 1 out of 5 severe risk Tuesday for large hail and damaging wind gusts along and south of I-94/HWY 10. There is also a level 2 of 4 risk for flash flooding in the same area.

..Severe chances Sunday night and again Monday

The shortwave coming over the top of the upper ridge late Sunday could bring some storms to north central ND that could clip our far northwestern counties. HREF updraft helicity probabilities are not too impressive with only a few members showing any paintballs in Towner county, but can't rule out a few isolated cells. Better, but still marginal chances for severe storms will be Monday as the frontal boundary sags south into our area. Ensemble mean CAPE according to the NBM gets over 2000 J/kg by Monday afternoon and deep layer shear increases to 35 to 40 kts. Still a few days away, but if the trends that the NBM shows hold Monday looks like a fairly busy convective day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Quiet weather today as VFR skies prevail for all sites. Some isolated ground fog remains around TVF and BJI this morning but will quickly clear. Winds will be S to SE through the day at 5-10kts with winds increasing after 00z ahead of cold front to around 10kts and gusts nearing 20kts between 00z and 12z for the later half of the taf period. Minimal other impacts to operations will be expected.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.