textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to heavy snow rates will cause 1/4 mile or less visibility this afternoon. Snow accumulations of between 2 and 8 inches along and north of Highway 2 are expected.

- Blizzard conditions will develop this evening in the northern Red River Valley as high winds develop. Dangerous travel conditions due to whiteouts will occur.

- High winds will develop across the southern portions of the area. Widespread gusts of greater than 60 mph are expected, with isolated areas receiving up to 80 mph.

- There will be another system late this weekend. There is a 30% chance of advisory level impacts due to blowing and accumulating snow Sunday.

..WINTER STORM AND HIGH WINDS

The surface low over western North Dakota will continue to propagate east-southeastward through the afternoon based on QG forcing trends aloft. As this occurs, isentropic ascent contributing to ongoing snowfall will push more into our area. The strong nature of the synoptic forcing, coupled with strong frontogenesis, will allow for organized banding bringing moderate to heavy snowfall rates of 0.50-1+ inch per hour to areas along and north of US Highway 2. Based on webcam observations, this appears to be ongoing in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains where 700mb frontogenesis is maximized. Depending on the evolution of the frontogenesis through the afternoon, snowfall amounts will tend to fall towards the higher total potential of 6-8 inches when all is said and done. More broadly, synoptically driven snowfall will bring a swath of at least 2 inches along and north of US Highway 2 with the embedded 6-8 inches where banding is. Where the 6-8 inches falls has a lower predictability than the broad 2 inches thanks to the inherent low predictability of frontogenetic forcing propagation. Regardless, expect moderate to major impacts to travel primarily due to heavy snowfall rates creating whiteout conditions, with at least some blowing snow ongoing.

As the surface low approaches around Grand Forks, winds will significantly increase west of the low. Direction will depend on location relative to the surface low, with those to the northwest of the low experiencing strong northwesterly winds with gusts up to 60 mph. The pressure gradient along the backside of this low approaches 115 microbars/kilometer, which is very strong. Sustained winds will be at least 40 mph on the backside of this, with the potential for 60 mph gusts. The strongest winds, however, will be closer to the strongest cold air advection, convection, and behind the surface pressure trough. Here, an 80-90 knot jet aloft exists which may mix down gusts of 60-70 mph. Surface based instability also is expected to exist in the southern portions of our area, so showers and thunderstorms may develop along this surface pressure trough. This will be enough to bring the threat of dangerous wind gusts up to 80 mph. Due to the necessity of convection to contribute to this, where this occurs will be localized and also carry a lower predictability horizon, similar to how severe weather is for us. Winds will peak generally after 6PM before rapidly tapering off after 6 AM.

The aforementioned winds and accumulated snowfall will contribute to blowing snow issues, including blizzard conditions where falling snow is ongoing. As the surface low passes, there will remain weaker synoptic forcing bringing continued light snow through the evening and overnight hours. Within areas of light snow and with accumulated snow of 2 inches or greater, widespread whiteout conditions are expected to develop as sustained winds between 40-50 mph will easily be enough to push blowing snow probabilities to 100%. Even in the absence of 2 inches of blowable snow, any falling snow will be enough to create periods of whiteout conditions, particularly in open country. The heaviest impacts will be felt between 6 PM and 12 AM, with a quick tapering off as winds diminish after midnight. Blowing snow will continue after this period but we should start to see impacts improve as the winds diminish.

Conditions for everyone will improve by 7AM for most, with accumulating snow lingering in the Lake of the Woods/Beltrami area through mid to late morning. By the afternoon, everyone should be well past this system with impacts becoming minimal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A fast moving/strong system is bringing widespread and variable aviation impacts to eastern ND and northwest MN, with accumulating snow and blowing snow across northeast ND and northwest MN, high winds (strongest in southeast ND). There is even a low chance (30%) for a thunderstorm near KFAR early in the TAF period which could bringing enhanced winds to the surface before the main surge of winds spreads east this evening. LIFR (locally VLIFR) vis can be expected where heavy snow rates/strong winds combine in the north, while at the very least MVFR stratus lingers across the south through the night. Snow should taper off west to east through the night, while winds may keep blowing snow impacts lingering through 10-12Z after snow ends. Winds decrease enough Friday morning after 12Z that visibility impacts should decrease and trends should be for prevailing VFR conditions during the daytime period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for NDZ007-008-016-027- 054. High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for NDZ029-030-039-053. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-014-015- 026. High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for NDZ024-028-038-049- 052. MN...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001-004-007. High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ002-003-027- 029>032-040. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ005-008- 013>015. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Friday for MNZ006-009-016- 017. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ022>024- 028.