textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for strong to severe storms Monday.

- Seasonable weather with scattered rain chances Tonight/Friday and early next week.

..Synopsis

NW flow continues to become more amplified the next few days with increasing ridging across the Rockies and high plains. Troughing off the Pacific coast looks to move ashore Saturday and flatten the ridge bringing increasing precipitation chances through early next week. Ridging then returns for the mid and late week next week. Could see some strong to severe storms on Monday/Tuesday next week though there are still a great deal of unknowns and wont speculate into the potential too much. Overall seasonal weather with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day and the peak daily heat index generally 80-85 making a it a comfortable stretch of late summer weather.

- Today

A low centered around Baudette continues to drift east along the International Border this afternoon with a narrow warm sector to the south along an ill defined trough with a weak wind shift from SW to W/NW behind the boundary. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg and MUCAPE exceeding 2000 j/kg will provide plenty of buoyancy for storms with Eff shear of 30-35kts at least supporting an initially organized mode as shear vectors remain perpendicular to the front. Largely unidirectional shear should support some splitting of cells and an initial hail threat up to quarter/ping pongs (1-1.5") before cells grow upscale along the front and transition to a mainly winds threat. Depending on the timing of storm initiation the front could already be east of our area with areas from Bemidji to Fergus Falls and east the only ones with a realistic chance to see a storm still this afternoon. Chances for any severe reports within our forecast area this afternoon are 10% or less. Timing will be from 3 to 6pm for any storms to form in our area before the front works east. Beyond the marginal chances for severe a second shortwave will rotate through the NW flow overnight bring more scattered showers/thunderstorms but chances for more than isolated totals over 0.10 are minimal so dont expect too much.

- Rain/Severe Chances Early Next Week

The AI ensembles agree strongly on the track of a wave through the canadian provinces on Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning with the Euro notably being faster than the GFS (typically the GFS is more progressive). The Euro also maintains a wider and more stout northward surge in the warm sector owing to its slightly more developed low and attendant features. Overall the expectation is for lee troughing east of the rockies with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg to support at least a wind and hail threat on Monday afternoon/evening. Looks like an event that will be much more spotty on rain amounts and dependent upon where thunderstorms track but isolated totals over 1 inch area certainly possible.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions for all TAF sites expected to continue except at KBJI. Models have backed off a bit on stratus and fog development in that area, but probabilities are still 50 to 70 percent for ceilings less than 3000 ft. North to northwest winds will continue to drop overnight, becoming light and variable at a few spots. Northwest winds will pick up again tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts expected.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.