textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for thunderstorms returns mid to late this week. This includes potential for strong to severe storms. There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Thursday.

- Late summer heat forecast to return this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1005 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Latest 00Z high resolution guidance still reveals multiple potential scenarios regarding convection evolution tomorrow. While confidence has grown in there being severe storms within our area tomorrow, the evolution of which as well as location remain in question.

Most impactful scenario includes severe storms in northeast ND mid to late afternoon migrating east and southeast, including discrete to semi-discrete supercells. This would allow all hazards to be possible, with perhaps very large hail possible (in excess of 2 inches) along with a tornado threat. Should storms evolve into more of a line of storms, gusty winds to 70 mph and hail not exceeding 2 inches would be the main threats - with some lowered chance for line-embedded tornadoes.

There is also a potential scenario that includes early morning isolated severe storms near the tri-state area into west-central MN - of which could be elevated supercells capable of large hail. Despite forcing aloft being weak, there is some present (mainly via weak warm air advection near 700 mb). This is the main question - whether or not strong enough forcing will be present to sustain robust convection in amid very favorable hail-producing environment comprised of moderate instability and moderate to strong shear.

..Heat Friday and into the weekend

With rising heights as the upper ridge builds Friday and into the weekend, temperatures will be well above average into the weekend. The ECMWF EFI shows a strong signal for warm temps, particularly in the southern Red River Valley. Apparent temps do not get above advisory criteria unless looking at the max percentile members, but the wet bulb globe gets into the 80s and heat risk is up into the major category for portions of the southern Red River Valley and west central MN both Friday and Saturday. May not need headlines especially this far in advance, but will continue to message summer temps heading into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF. Generally high confidence in this as surface high pressure slides away from the area with a persistent light easterly wind developing overnight. Winds remain generally out of the east throughout the TAF period.

There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms within the region Thursday, including potentially severe thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and large hail. While very unlikely to occur at a TAF site, cannot rule out the possibility of a tornado.

Storms could develop as early as 11Z within southeast ND into west-central MN before diminishing or moving away by 17Z. The chance of this to occur is low, and was omitted from KFAR's TAF at this time. Should this occur, however, storms may produce large hail and gusty winds.

Then another round of thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon in northeast ND, moving generally east and/or southeast. Each TAF site has corresponding PROB30 groups to note on general timeframe for potential storms.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.