textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms late Friday afternoon into the evening for portions of west central into north central Minnesota and far southeast North Dakota. Storms will be capable of producing all hazards.

- There is a 60 percent chance of more than 0.50 inch of rain late Sunday night into Monday. Widespread rain could impact outdoor activities.

UPDATE

Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Short term model ensmebles, HREF and REFS, are indicating the highest severe chances are a tad east now, more so centered over areas in between Grand Rapids and Bemidji southwest to Park Rapids, Wadena and Alexandria areas. This subtle shift east would affect severe risk farther west. Storm development location and intensity all dependent on location of cold front and instabilty parameters and of the front and location of a surface low as it moves into west central MN. Operational 00z model runs would indicate development near Bemidji to Detroit Lakes to west of Fergus Falls along the front 22-23z period, with individual storms tracking northeast while front itself moves southeast. It would appear that initial discrete supercells would be short lived and a line of storms will form pretty quickly after development. This puts into question confidence of any tornado threat which may be short lived to the 1-2 hours after storm development. Also tied to location of surface low where SRH 0-1 km will be highest and that appears to be Alexandria-Wadena area near or just north of the low. Fargo does look to be west of the convective development and will keep t-storm chance east of Fargo. Do think the far west edge of SPC Day 1 is a tad too far west, but talking miles so enough uncertainity that it isnt completely unreasonable.

Does look like for the next system rain area moves thru late Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Rainfall amounts have been lowering the past few days....with NBM indicating 60 pecent chance of QPF more than 0.50 inch but chances for more than 1 inch is closer to 20/30 percent.

..Soaking Rainfall Early Next Week

A large upper low over the Pacific Northwest will propagate eastward towards the Northern Plains late Sunday into Monday. There is some uncertainty in where the deformation band will set up, with NBM probabilities in the 50 to 70 percent range across the entire FA. Instability while present, will not be sufficient for any severe weather concerns.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A cold front with a wind shift to the north-northwest will make its way southeast today. At 12z it is near Roseau-Grand Forks- Cooperstown then forecast to be near Bemidji-Fargo 22-23z. T-storm development is anticipated to be near Bemidji then to the east of Fargo late afternoon thru early evening. Kept tempo in for tsra in Bemidji 00-02z. Expect VFR conditions today with predominate high clouds then near the front altocu later today.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.