textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 30 percent chance of sub-advisory impacts and 10 percent chance of advisory impacts in far southeast North Dakota Friday night.

- Below normal temperatures into next week.

..Synopsis

500 mb upper low is in central Wisconsin at 09z and moving slowly east with surface low in northeast Wisconsin. Gusty winds continue to over 30 kts into southeast ND and west central MN. These gusty winds will slowly subside as we go thru the morning as the low moves east-northeast and high pressure ridge axis currently over central Saskatchewan into southwest North Dakota slides east. Lingering light snow in the eastern fcst area (Bemidji-Wadena should end near 12z). So for today forecast challenge is more cloud cover issues. Upstream shows considerable cloud cover in the MVFR aviation flight category range, but some holes are present. Used NBM/Conshort blend for sky today which keeps it mostly cloudy, but allows for a few breaks. Main colder air is still to our northwest so highs today will be mid to upper 20s.

Colder airmass with high pressure ridge will ooze east tonight into Thursday as winds continue to lighten and there is a slow clearing process. Lows tonight teens and highs Thursday low to mid 20s. Will need to watch for any areas that clear out over the deeper snow cover as low temperatures could tank. Seeing several areas of near zero degree temps in northwest ND and northeast Montana currently at 09z.

The next 500 mb short wave to affect the northern Plains will move into Washington state Thursday evening and quickly southeast from there thru Wyoming Friday night. Sfc low formation with this looks to be close to the upper wave, but an area of frontogenetical forcing noted at 700 mb due to warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer will develop an area of snow from central Montana across southwest ND into eastern SD Friday into Friday night. 00z GFS/ECMWF and NBM all bring the far northeast edge of accumulating snow into central and SE ND and west central MN Friday night. I wouldnt be suprised to see the 700 mb frontogenetical forcing shift a bit more south in time the next 36 hours before this event and shift snow more out of far SE ND, but as it stands currently 30 pct chance of sub- advisory impacts in far southeast ND (Sargent, Ransom, Richland counties) and 10 percent chance of advisory impacts in same area Friday night.

After this wave...colder air will move in particularly Sunday- Monday period with highs likely single digits and lows below zero in some areas. With relatively light winds, wind chills remain above advisory levels.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

There are still lingering areas of light snow over parts of southeast ND and northwest/west central MN early in the TAF period resulting in brief vis reductions in the 1-6sm range, otherwise the trend continues to be for snow to end west to east as the main upper low is not east of the region. MVFR stratus is likely to prevail into Wednesday afternoon in eastern ND and through Wednesday night across northwest MN, though there could be temporary periods of improvement at all sites (gaps in the stratus that will carry low predictability). Winds are shifting from the north to northwest (above 12kt) with gusts 20-30kt until the gradient weakens west to east in the afternoon/early evening period Wednesday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.