textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with rain chances returning Wednesday and Thursday.

..Heat wave continuing and rain chances mid-week

One of the weak embedded shortwaves coming over the top of the ridge has started to produce some showers and thunderstorms in or near north central ND. SPC meso page has decent 1000 to 1500 J/kg of ML CAPE and shear around 40 kts, but with very weak forcing, and extremely warm mid-level temps, the cells that are developing are struggling. CAMs have that trend continuing with the next weak shortwave arriving later this evening, and this seems reasonable. Our northwestern counties could see a few sprinkles this afternoon and evening, but substantial precipitation will hold off until Wednesday/Thursday as NBM probabilities of at least a tenth of an inch of rain finally rise above 50 percent. ECMWF EFI continues to show a signal for heat continuing through the weekend, and NBM probabilities for temperatures over 95 degrees are over 70 percent for Wednesday. Likely will need heat headlines of some sort again Wednesday so will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Some MVFR clouds have formed along a boundary close to the Red River Valley, with some MVFR coverage extending into KTVF. That should scatter out in the next hour or two, all sites going VFR with mainly high clouds and some high level smoke coming in from the west. Some limited surface smoke possible at KDVL but at this point kept visibility no lower than 6 miles. Light northwest winds around 10 kts will become light and variable this evening, eventually picking up out of the south at KDVL.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.