textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled week ahead. Shower and t-storm chances spread east Tuesday late into Wednesday, then again Friday into Saturday.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening over the Devils Lake Basin. - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening over eastern North Dakota and the Red River valley.

..Severe Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday

Heading into Wednesday, the H5 upper low moves slightly further to the east, thus bringing our axis of instability further into eastern North Dakota. Where it ends up will depend on a number of factors; however, there will be another boundary pushing to the southeast later Wednesday afternoon. This will serve to provide additional lift and forcing, further supporting thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Initiation timing is also a bit uncertain at this time, mainly because there could be remnant showers ongoing during the morning hours and limiting daytime heating. The environment will be supportive of severe storms as MLCAPE climbs to near 2000 J/Kg and lapse rates remain strong. Low to mid level shear will be located close to the boundary once more; however, better forcing is expected as the reinforcing boundary pushes to the southeast during the afternoon and evening. Current storm mode favors hybrid clusters, followed by the potential for upscale growth into line segments and/or QLCS. Once more, soundings support all hazards.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 840 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

While VFR conditions are forecast at all sites through the TAF period, there is a medium chance in impacts from thunderstorms at KDVL before 00Z Wednesday. There is high confidence in scattered thunderstorms developing within a broader region of central North Dakota that move into eastern North Dakota after 20Z, and could impact KDVL between 20Z-06Z.

However, confidence in more refined timing of potential impacts from storms at KDVL remains low enough to omit this out of the KDVL TAF for now. Will add TSRA into the TAF as confidence grows in timeframe of potential impacts in subsequent TAF issuances. These storms may be strong to severe, bringing gusty winds and hail in addition to lightning.

There is a medium chance these storms continue to trek eastward into the Red River Valley between 00Z-12Z Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.