textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread soaking rains are expected today into Tuesday morning. An axis of heavy rain with 90 percent chance of 1 inch or more and 60 percent chance of 2 inches or more forecast roughly Bismarck-Grand Forks/Mayville thru Thief River Falls to Roseau/Baudette. WPC has this zone in region of sligh risk of excessive rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Not much change from the current and previous forecast. Northeast winds under 10 kts currently with advancing area of mid clouds and mid level showers into NE ND at 08z. Forecast idea is that winds at the surface will turn more southeast and dew pts in the 60s which were pushed south to Watertown will return northward toward Grand Forks this afternoon. Frontogenetic forcing is focused in a pretty wide area from south central into east central ND and northwest MN. There has been a slight southward trend in precip max area but overall still focused Bismarck to Grand Forks/Mayville region to Roseau/Baudette where there is a 60 percent chance of 2 inches or more of rain with a pocket of 25-30 percent chance of 3 inches or more of rain in between Grand Forks and Jamestown.

..Synopsis

Mid level clouds continue to work slowly to the east this afternoon, with otherwise mostly clear skies. Look for increasing cloud cover tonight as our next system approaches the region. H5 upper low will move into the Northern Plains on Monday, into an environment supportive of moderate to heavy rain. Mixing ratios range from 10-12 g/Kg by Monday afternoon, with a relatively strong theta-e gradient boundary stretching from southwest to northeast across the eastern half of North Dakota. Embedded thunderstorm activity is expected as CAPE values will be in the 300-700 J/Kg range. Areas along an axis from Cooperstown to Grand Forks, to Roseau have the best chances for 1 or more inches of rain (80-90%), with slightly lower chances on either side. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 50s along the International Border, with low 70s in the southern Red River Valley. Heading into Tuesday, rain gradually moves off to the east, with minimal chances for precipitation through the remainder of next week. Cooler temperatures are expected from Thursday onward, with highs in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Aviation weather today will turn out quite poor due to expansive rain and t-storms that will affect a large part of eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota into tonight. As usual expect highly variable conditions from IFR ceilings and vsbys to MVFR conditions during the rain. IFR predominate at DVL, GFK especially as the rain moves in. Actual ASOS/AWOS conditions will vary at times from the TAF and that is to be expected as not able to capture in a TAF all the subtle short lived changes to the predominate conditions.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.