textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for isolated to scattered severe storms today with a primary wind threat.

- Wind advisory in effect for strong winds across northeast North Dakota Monday afternoon.

- Scattered but low confidence chances for strong to severe through the work week.

..Synopsis

Troughing is now dominating the high plains with a well defined upper low moving through MT/Alberta this afternoon. With this wave will come severe weather this evening/overnight in eastern North Dakota and strong winds along the south side of the low tomorrow along the intl border. Beyond these threats the 0.25-0.5" rains north of HWY 200 tonight will certainly be welcome and beneficial to easing the worsening drought. It may even put a short stop to the ongoing wheat/sugar beet harvest. More thunderstorm chances through the later half of the week, some of which may be severe.

- Today

The strong forcing of the 500mb in MT is already proving to be enough to initiate storms across eastern MT despite modest MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg out there. As storms continue to deepen and grow upscale they will work into a more buoyant airmass west of the US-83 corridor with sig wind potential across the western/South central portion of the state. Given decreasing MUCAPE and instability with time and eastward extent the storms are expected to be on a weakening trend by the time they arrive in our area around 8-10pm and midnight in the RRV. This comes with a caveat however, many CAMS are depicting a bubble of MUCAPE exceeding 3000 j/kg in the southern RRV that should storms enter it with sufficient organization they may intensify supporting 60-70mph gusts along and south of HWY 200 through the early morning hours and into west central Minnesota. This scenario is low confidence but higher impact and worth mentioning. Overall given weak low level lapse rates and minimal low level cape (0-3km) QLCS tornados seem unlikely but cannot be ruled out if storms remain more organized with a balanced UDCZ. Overall as long as a linear mode prevails hail is a low threat.

- Monday Wind

As the upper low lifts northeast into Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg strong W/SW winds will wrap around the southern periphery of the low. EFI does pick up on this nicely with some shading over the 0.9 threshold for wind gusts which seems to correspond nicely with high wind warning criteria for us historically, anecdotally speaking. Given a modest BL depth to around 800mb and flow within that layer of 30-40kts only moderate cold air advection at the onset of peak diurnal mixing thinking that getting gusts from higher aloft to the surface will be more difficult. The result is to expect gusts of 30-40kts in the afternoon across northeast north Dakota and especially the Langdon bowl but the peak potential with gusts nearing 45-50kts seems unrealistic. A few scenarios do bring bring much drier dewpoints that being shown by the NBM with resulting MinRH in the 25-30% range overlapping with gusts of 20- 25kts (mainly in southeast North Dakota) with MinRH closer to 35% overlapping with gusts of 30-35kts in the northern RRV. Overall the state of the fuels seems unlikely support fast fire spread but near critical fire weather seems on the table. True Red Flag conditions seem unattainable at this time.

- Work Week

Near zonal to southwesterly flow aloft continues into next week. Temps look to be above average with several chances for precipitation as weak shortwaves come through. Machine learning does indicate increased chances for severe weather but with a large spatial spread day to day lowering the confidence at the this time in impacts. Overall seasonal moisture and increased shear from the passing shortwaves amid SW flow do conceptually support the risk for strong to severe storms through the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Conditions vary significantly across the region this afternoon with BJI IFR and all others VFR (some sct clouds at MVFR levels still). Clearing this afternoon will result in all areas reaching VFR for the evening but a return to MVFR overnight as a front and thunderstorms roll through is expected. Winds turning more west behind the front with increasing speeds of 10-15kts for all. DVL and GFK may see gusts over 30kts tomorrow but mostly from 18z to 00z tomorrow. Thunderstorms will work through the region this evening, tried to time it out in tafs but AMD will still be needed.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-026-027-054. MN...None.