textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are forecasted in southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota today.

- At least near critical fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 734 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A quick update to the Red Flag Warning. It has been expanded into much of west central MN. Latest model guidance shows winds aloft arriving a bit faster, which with deep mixing to 700 mb, should get surface wind gusts up into the 30 to 35 mph range. The remaining Red Flag Warning remains unchanged, with no other forecast changes needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Fire weather concerns are the story of the day. Deep mixing up to about 700 mb will promote RH values as low as 20 percent in southeastern ND. Winds of 20 to 30 mph, occasionally gusting higher as the pressure gradient tightens slightly due to a passing surface trough, will combine with the low RH values to produce critical fire weather. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the southeastern corner of ND, in effect from 11 AM CDT this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening. On the Minnesota side, deep mixing will lead to similar RH values down to about 20 percent. However, winds will be lighter, as the stronger winds aloft do not arrive until very late afternoon into the evening. This means winds across much of MN will not be as high as further west in ND, where the higher winds aloft will arrive during peak afternoon heating, and will therefore have a much easier time to 1) mix down and 2) bring several hours of stronger winds and thus critical fire weather. The one area on the MN side of the FA that will need to be monitored closely is the central and southern Red River Valley, where the stronger winds might arrive early enough to bring a shorter window of critical fire weather. All other portions of the forecast remain on track.

..Tomorrow and beyond fire weather concerns

Similar RH values are expected for tomorrow afternoon, and there will be more of a pressure gradient as a surface trough moves through. While winds look higher than today, there is only around 30 kts to mix down and not much in the way of pressure rises. The 50th percentile of NBM has some 25 mph sustained winds in east central ND, but may be due to the NBM's bias in that area. The HREF joint probability for winds over 25 mph and RH values under 25 percent doesn't have much. Dropping the winds threshold down to 20 mph gives us some low chances for critical fire weather conditions on the MN side, around 20 percent. Definitely could see critical to near critical fire conditions for tomorrow afternoon, but not confident enough to go with a watch at this point. Still breezy into Saturday, but slightly cooler temps should bring higher RH values and there will be a low chance for showers. Less wind and similar RH values for Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR will prevail throughout the TAF period, with any aviation impacts tied to elevated winds this afternoon. Winds will be strongest at KDVL, KGFK and KFAR. By mid afternoon, gusts of 30 knots or greater are likely at KFAR. These higher gusts may sneak into KGFK as well for a brief period this afternoon, but predictability/duration was too low to add them into the TAF at this time. Ceilings this evening will fall a bit but remain VFR. Quick moving rain showers may accompany the lowering ceilings. KDVL and KFAR seem to hold a slightly higher chance then any other terminals for seeing these showers. However, shower coverage and duration remains uncertain, as dry air may keep some of the rain from reaching the ground. In addition, aviation impacts are uncertain as a worst case scenario would bring a brief period of MVFR visibilities. Therefore, no PROB30s for -RA were added at this time, but future TAF iterations can refine this as needed.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ024-028>030-038-039-049-052-053. MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-022-027>032-040.