textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions through early evening in west-central Minnesota.

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for a few thunderstorms bringing a threat for 1.5 inch hail Sunday afternoon.

..SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY

As the shortwave ejects tomorrow afternoon, a deepening surface low is forecast to develop in the Central/Northern Great Plains. Accompanying this will be a developing warm front that will push moisture northward towards our area. South of this front, theta-e values exceeding 330 K will provide for a risk of surface-based thunderstorms, while north of the warm front will create a risk for elevated thunderstorms. This will largely drive the hazards that we will see tomorrow afternoon/evening.

As time has gone on, it is appearing more and more likely that we will be on the northern end of the warm front, where very strong isentropic ascent will exist, but with cooler surface temperatures in the 60s. This means we will more likely fall towards elevated supercells capable of hail up to 1.5". On the flip side, this means our tornado risk is also significantly diminished. While ESRH along the warm front is very good with excellent streamwise vorticity, the overwhelming bulk of guidance keeps this south of area. There remains the low chance for this warm front to propagate northward and slice into Otter Tail/Grant/Hubbard Counties, but this looks to be the outlier and absolute northern max within the range of scenarios. The timeframe for severe storms is generally between 3 PM and 11 PM with the most likely zone for severe in the 4 PM to 9 PM timeframe. For any tornado risk, should it arise, this would be closer to the late afternoon early evening timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the overnight period tonight across eastern ND and northwest MN. NOrth to northeast winds initially decrease this evening with sunset, however as low pressure builds to the west east then southeast winds should increase above 12kt after midnight with gusts through the day Sunday. This system will bring periods of rain showers, with a chance for embedded thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. The best chance for embedded thunderstorm (30%) is at KFAR during the late afternoon/early evening period (lower chances elsewhere). The increase in low level moisture will also bring at least MVFR ceilings to the region Sunday, with increasing chances for IFR during the afternoon across eastern ND. The best chance for IFR is at KDVL during this TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ004>006-008-009-017. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ029>032- 040.