textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy blowing snow will bring minor impacts to travel through the afternoon.

- Gusty winds Friday are likely to bring at least some degree of impacts Friday into Saturday, although how severe impacts are will depend on wind speed and temperatures.

..Synopsis

Surface analysis this afternoon indicates broad surface surface high moving in from the west at this hour. Wind speeds continue to remain in the 10 to 20 mph range sustained with temperatures generally upper single digits to low teens. This has allowed for blowing snow to arise, however more severe impacts have been significantly mitigated with wind speeds as low as they are. Still, with mixing ongoing this afternoon, the expectation is for the development of horizontal convective roll snow showers. Snowfall rates combined with the elevated wind speeds should be enough to create regions of low visibility, however impacts to travel should remain fairly minor with winds not expected to increase much further. As we approach sunset, impacts will become minimal as winds diminish and mixing ceases.

We remain locked in perpetual northwest flow through the remainder of the week. Perturbations within the longwave trough are not apparent in long range guidance until Friday when a fast moving shortwave trough rolls through bringing the threat for snow and blowing snow once more. Signals for wind are very strong thanks to a significant temperature gradient setting up along the perturbation. Long range guidance varies in location of the upper low, but most ensemble members keep the main upper low north with generally modest wind production across our region. While blowing snow is a potential threat, the clipper nature of this system brings low level thermal ridging well above freezing to our area, so impacts to snowpack viability for blowing snow are expected. Given all of these uncertainties and based on ensemble distribution with a 90th percentile solution for potential warning impacts from a deeper low, there is a 10% chance for warning impacts with the potential for blizzard conditions if snowpack remains viable and a deeper low arises. Again, there are a lot of things working against it but it does at least look like we'll see winds to facilitate at least advisory impacts if snowpack remains viable.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Variable flight conditions are expected through the early evening hours across eastern ND and northwest MN as streaky light snow showers and MVFR stratocumulus (2000-2900 FT AGL) lingers a little pas sunset. Most of this activity is showing signs of clearing with the loss of daytime heating. Some areas of MVFR ceilings are likely to linger through the early morning hours until much drier air arrives with surface high pressure(09-12Z) with guidance favoring northwest MN TAF sites. The strongest winds gusts are decreasing with loss of mixing, with gradient remains in place and west-northwest winds are likely to remain at or above 12kt until later tonight.

Regardless of lingering stratus tonight, the arrival of surface high pressure and drier air favors VFR conditions and lighter winds Wednesday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.