textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance for fire weather impacts Friday into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The surface pattern this afternoon is fairly diffuse with mainly northerly to northwesterly winds due to a surface high over the central US moving away from our area. Temperatures this afternoon will remain cool through tomorrow thanks to continued cool mean layer temperatures and deep troughing over the great lakes. Luckily, the center of the larger troughing is downstream of our area, so afternoon temperatures will begin to rise appreciably through early next week.

As this occurs, relative humidity values during afternoons will fall much lower, with greater chances for 20-30% RHs in the afternoon. However, winds will remain relatively light and away from critical thresholds as flow in the low levels is quite weak (generally 20-30 knots). Forecasted HRB values do indicate that, despite green-up beginning, we still remain fully dead for the most part on the live fuel moisture front and ERC values are approaching 60-80th percentiles. As such, fuels remain conducive for near critical conditions, but winds need to be cranked up a lot more to achieve critical/red flag.

Embedded within northwesterly flow will be a few perturbations that bring with it the chance for showers. However, moisture advection is very weak and instability is also very weak, so higher level impacts appear unlikely at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR should prevail throughout the TAF period at most terminals, with the lone exception being KDVL. At KDVL, a period of MVFR CIGS is likely Thursday morning. There is also a very low chance for a sprinkle or flurry overnight into Thursday morning and again Thursday afternoon as a few showers pass through. No visibility reductions are expected from this precipitation, and since these showers are a very low probability, I did not add any PROB30s into this set of TAFs.

Winds will remain under 12 knots throughout the TAF period. Winds overnight will be variable, then returning to the north Thursday morning/afternoon. Winds Thursday afternoon should be similar to what we saw today, with a few stray gusts, but at this point, it would appear gust frequency should be low enough to keep them out of the TAF.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.