textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue in portions of the Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota this afternoon.

- Next chance for widespread rain comes Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. There is a 30% chance for 1 inch of rain in portions of eastern North Dakota.

..Friday into Saturday rainfall

Compact but vigorous shortwave trough will bring a swath of widespread rain into the area from south to north starting Friday afternoon, lasting into Saturday morning. Guidance has trended in an increase in amounts, likely owing to a trend toward a stronger passage of this system as it swings into and through the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota in a negatively tilted fashion.

What once appeared like high end amounts around half an inch is now more likely to be widespread half an inch of rainfall, with potential to see around 1 inch. At this time, best chance for 1 inch is within southeast North Dakota where rainfall may linger the longest.

Thunder chances still look very low with most guidance keeping CAPE values under 300 J/kg. Can't rule out a few embedded lightning strikes given the strength of forcing, but overall activity is expected to be rather low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Increasing high clouds, but conditions will remain VFR through most of the night. Winds will continue to drop into the 10 to 15 kt range, with a bit of low level wind shear possible at some of the airports. MVFR ceilings begin to move in from the south by tomorrow afternoon, eventually dropping to IFR at most sites by Friday evening. Rain moves into the KFAR area by early afternoon, with rain spreading to the more northern airports a few hours later. CAMs runs in pretty good agreement on large precipitation shield spreading over the forecast area, so went ahead and put rain in all the TAF sites prevailing groups during the later part of the period. Winds will pick up again and gust up to 25 kts by Friday afternoon, becoming more southeasterly and easterly in direction.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.