textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures thru next Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Sunny skies and southerly winds have brought warmer air into the region and warmed readings up into the 60s from the chilly start this morning. A shortwave trough moving through Manitoba off into Ontario will help push a surface trough and cold front down into the region tonight and tomorrow. Weak surface high pressure build in behind the front and temperatures Sunday night should get down into the 30s in many areas, so may have to watch for some spots to get down to the freezing mark as the HREF has some 20 to 40 percent probabilities of that reading in our north and west. Temperatures will recover quickly and remain well above seasonal values as southwesterly flow aloft gives way to zonal flow briefly then a building ridge by mid-week. Southwesterly flow aloft into next Friday and Saturday, with most of the ensemble members showing a trough coming out although there are of course differences in the exact track of the surface low. ECWMF EFI still showing a signal for above normal temperatures, so any precipitation should remain all rain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions now and throughout the period with just a few high clouds moving in tonight. Winds will be the main forecast concern, with southerly gusts this afternoon up above 25 kts at times, but should stay below 30 kts. Some low level wind shear as surface winds drop off but a jet at 35 to 40 kts out of the southwest to west continues at 2000 ft. The low level wind shear will decrease by sunrise, and surface winds will shift around to the west then northwest, picking up at KGFK and KDVL with gusts into the 20 to 25 kt range by the end of the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.