textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms exist over the holiday weekend.

..Severe chances over Labor Day weekend

First of several shortwaves under the upper ridge comes in tonight, and with warm air advection, some showers and thunderstorms are possible. Main activity will be in our far western counties, although it is uncertain how far east the decent elevated instability will move. Some of the CAMs have some fairly healthy thunderstorms developing over southeastern ND after 10Z tonight, while other runs have showers or nothing at all. The HREF has some low probabilities (10 percent) of strong updraft helicity tracks early tomorrow morning, so can't completely rule out some elevated hailers but not super widespread. Another shortwave coming through Saturday afternoon or night could bring additional convective activity, but the deep layer shear is pretty unimpressive at around 25 kts. Slightly better shear and instability on Sunday over eastern ND, although much will depend on how previous convection plays out and exact timing of the embedded waves. Best shear will be Monday afternoon, although CAPE values are all over the place. In short, there will be several chances for a few isolated severe cells to develop Saturday through Monday, but exactly where and when are uncertain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Ceilings at 800 ft continue to hang around the KBJI area, but based on satellite should scatter out in the next few hours. Light north to northeast winds under 10 kts will shift around to a more southeasterly direction tonight, with some variability as they come around. Some fog is not out of the question with southeasterly winds and moisture pooling along an old boundary, most likely in our far eastern forecast area and along the escarpment in northeastern ND. Considering the good probability of less than 3 miles visibility put KBJI down to 2SM for a time tomorrow morning, and could get even lower. At this point fog is not certain enough to include in the other TAF sites. All airports should be VFR by the end of the period, with some southeasterly winds gusting to 20 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.