textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Well below average temperatures continue unseasonably cool conditions today, then milder.
- Near critical or critical fire weather conditions may develop Thursday into the weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
No additional changes. Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
Not much change to the forecast overnight. Minor tweeks to sky cover. Today will be the last day of the upper wave and its cool air aloft and cloud cover. Some breaks of sun again, but clouds will remain predominate. Coord with BIS and will mention near critical fire weather in HWO for eastern ND. For MN counties, coordination likely needed as due to RH near critical or critical RH values may occur Thursday as well, despite lower wind speeds. So will not jump the gun and go near critical wording yet in MN counties until more coordination on this can be done.
..Fire weather concerns late this week
Vast majority of guidance indicates a very dry air mass moving into the Dakotas and Minnesota from the west starting Thursday. This will push RH values into the 20s Thursday and Friday, perhaps even into the teens if deeper mixing occurs. This is very dry for our area. Deeper mixing will likely ensue if we stay mostly sunny on either of these days, which still remains a possibility, but is low in confidence.
While confidence is high in very dry conditions developing these days, confidence is low on winds. This is again stemming from potential to mix deeper than currently advertised. While winds currently forecast are under 25 mph, if even a slight push of deeper mixing occurs, gusts could reach into the 30s mph. This would result in critical fire weather conditions if this occurs.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
Not too disimilar from Tuesday for today. Some clearing breaks, but overall a mostly cloudy sky into the evening. Cloud bases look to remain 4000 to 8000 ft agl with a northwest wind 10-18kts sustained and occasional gusts 20-23kts. Winds become light after sunset.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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