textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the area Monday afternoon and evening. A few storms could become strong and produce hail and frequent lightning.
..Synopsis
The overall pattern across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest continues to support cooler temperatures and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms for the next week. H5 height anomalies remain quite low north the Great Lakes through the end of next week, with shortwaves traversing northwest flow.
The first of these waves arrives Monday, bringing diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Low level lapse rates are expected to be nearly dry adiabatic, which will combine with low freezing heights to present a hail threat during the strongest storms. Most thunderstorm activity should remain sub severe; however, hail up to 1 inch in diameter cannot be ruled out.
Heading into Tuesday, another weak shortwave traverses a baroclinic boundary, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms as the larger boundary lifts northeastward into the area. Reinforcing cooler air moves into the Northern Plains on Wednesday as highs struggle to reach 70 degrees in most places. Additional rain chances emerge on Thursday and Friday, but will be dependent on the timing of shortwave activity.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Some high clouds starting to move in from the west and more mid clouds tomorrow, but expecting conditions to remain VFR through most of the period. A few model solutions try and bring some MVFR ceilings to some of the TAF sites by the end of the period tomorrow evening, but seems a bit overdone so will keep things VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening across most of the area, so continued to keep prob30 groups going. Winds will become gusty from the northwest tomorrow afternoon up to 25 kts, then settle down a bit around sunset.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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