textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening. The main hazards will be hail up to the size of ping pong balls, gusty winds to 60 mph, and perhaps a few brief, weak tornadoes.
- Growing signal for potentially strong to severe storms late this weekend into early next week.
..Weekend into early next week severe potential
The chance for synoptic ingredients typical for producing severe storms in our region continues to increase this weekend into early next week. However, more refined and important details that would dictate coverage and severity of storms remains uncertain due to this period toward the end of the predictability horizon.
Synoptic ingredients include a preceding period for moisture and instability returning into our area ahead of a synoptic upper trough and attendant mid level jet max ejecting into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Several AI guidance also reveal this signal of severe potential as well. This includes some more robust signals on Sunday and Monday that keep widespread and/or significant severe potential on the table. Backing these signals is the speed at which the upper jet max traverses through our region, the orientation of this jet into the geometry of the warm sector (although this aspect is still somewhat in question), as well as the degree of instability (possibly very unstable air mass).
In general our local window of potential severe storms with this period starts as early as late Saturday/early Sunday, and potentially extending through Monday/Tuesday.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 722 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Tricky aviation forecast today. Band of showers and a few thunderstorms bringing brief 1-3 hour period of potential IFR conditions in vsby and MVFR in ceiling in the RRV moving into NW MN thru the morning/midday. Then looking at potential clearing into parts of E ND, southern half of the valley, this afternoon with then scattered storm development mid to late afternoon and evening thru E ND into MN. Winds southeast then turning southwest and then west as a surface trough moves thru this afternoon into this evening.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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