textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for light rain and possibly some wintry mixed precipitation tonight into early Thursday. Probability of advisory level impacts is 10 percent.

- Drying fuels may intermittently support low end fire danger this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

00z model runs really not doing very well in my opinion with activity in Canada and in North Dakota. Main upper wave is moving into NW Ontario with weak surface low in far northwest MN. Another wave in southern Saskatchwean. Behind the first low there is colder air with a northeast wind in Manitoba and a north wind in far northern ND at 08z. HRRR and other short term models take colder air southward today to around Grand Forks where temps will hold in the 40s this aftn...with 30s farther north and 60s far south. There is an area of light rain that continues to push east-southeast thru central ND and did include some low pops for -ra in that area from Cooperstown to Fargo for this 11z-13z period.

For tonight position of where precipitation will be does vary from more north position in central/east central ND into MN from the short term models, to more southerly position from most global models and AI models. Consensus from neighboring offices was to lean toward the southern soln. This does bring some light rain eastward, esp overnight thru south 1/2 of the fcst area into MN. Some risk of wintry mix on north edge of where the precipitation will be but due to lower than usual confidence in location of this precipitation area and sfc temps chances for advisory level impacts remain 10 percent.

..Fire weather concerns

Dew points have dropped to near 20 percent near the Red Lakes, although fortunately the winds have been light and from the southeast. Southwesterly winds tomorrow will pick up at 10 to 15 mph in parts of southeastern ND, but dew points will be a bit higher and afternoon RH values are expected to stay in the upper 30s to 40 percent. Cooler and some moisture on Thursday, but Friday and into the weekend some locations could drop to 30 percent or lower. Will continue to keep an eye on fire weather as fuels dry out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

There is increasing confidence that a low passing to the north in Canada wil bring lowered ceilings to northern TAF sites including DVL, GFK, and TVF. The question is whether there will be a ceiling of things remain more SCT. Either way a worst case scenario looks to keep potential fog more north of TAF sites (wont 100% rule it out though) with MVFR ceilings for those 3 sites and occasional stretches of brief IFR. Overall looks to be 10z to 18z as the worst period. FAR and BJI VFR through the period with winds turning NW at all sites in the morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.