textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- After a few showers and thunderstorms on Friday, temperatures will slowly warm to near 80 by late next week.

..Showers and Thunderstorms Friday

A wave propagating southeastward from Saskatchewan Thursday night quickly into Minnesota by Friday afternoon will be the trigger for shower and thunderstorm development beginning tonight. As the low swings through the FA late Friday morning into the afternoon, an airmass characterized by up to 1000 J/Kg of MUCAPE and 20 to 30 knots of effective shear will allow for showers and thunderstorms to blossom. The speed at which the low tracks through the FA will determine where the strongest thunderstorms initiate. A quicker low will whisk much of the instability eastward by afternoon, leaving all but our far southeastern counties with any chance for a stronger storm. A slower system would allow instability to remain over more of the region, and storms to develop further west, probably closer to the MN side of the Red River Valley. The best overlap in shear and instability in either scenario is in west central MN (Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wadena, Fergus Falls areas). If a thunderstorm were to become strong to marginally severe, it would be in this region during the mid to late afternoon hours, with just sufficient speed shear for hail to be the primary threat. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our far southeastern counties in a marginal, level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR this afternoon and tonight, but ceilings will lower as we work into Friday. Pockets of MVFR will likely develop by mid to late Friday morning. In addition, showers and a few thunderstorms will also start to form. PROB30s were added towards the end of the TAF period to account for this activity. An additional round of showers and thunderstorms may be in store just beyond the end of the current TAF period Friday afternoon. Due to the brief and transient nature of any showers/storms that develop, impacts at any one terminal should remain fairly limited. Winds start the period out of the northwest, become variable to southerly overnight, and then switch back to the northwest by late Friday morning. Wind gusts should be hard to come by outside of a stray gust this afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.