textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty showers this evening with mostly rain and occasionally graupel.

- Cooler to start the week with highs in the 40s and 50s before 60s and 70s return Thursday onwards.

..Synopsis

Two main distinct features are present across North America this afternoon with an upper low in western Ontario and a low off the Baja coast with split jet flow in between. As the Baja low comes ashore the subtropical jet becomes dominant and the upper low in Canada is finally picked up and ejected east allow for deamplified NW flow to return to our region. This also will bring a downsloping airmass to the the northern plains for the later half of the week with increasing high temps and a drier airmass increasing the fire weather potential. Within the NW will likley be a few subtle shortwaves but nothing noteworthy in terms of precipitation chances.

Lapse rate driven strato-cu are leading to high probability low qpf showers this afternoon with moderate spacing keeping the coverage aspect on the lower side. Continuing with the 20-35% pops this evening with a little graupel even mixing in on the leading edge of the last shower that passed over the office. QPF staying under 0.10" this afternoon with coverage dissipating by midnight. Cant rule out some more shower activity tomorrow.

Additional chances for critical fire weather conditions arise later this week. Persistent northwesterly flow continues to contribute to downsloping and dry airmasses over our region, so days with increasing temperatures will bring an increased risk for critical fire conditions. The main question marks will be wind speeds which do appear likely to meet thresholds of concern for fire late next week with fuel status also remaining critical. ERC percentiles are still largely high though HRB is beginning to respond to green-up so fire spread may become inhibited. At this time, Thursday and Friday appear to have the greatest likelihood for critical fire weather conditions.

With ongoing green up across the region we will be planning to start up Frost/Freeze headlines this coming weekend. Obviously still high uncertainty with respect to exact temperatures come this weekend along with winds but current conditions do support at least a threat that will have to be monitored despite highs in the 50s and 60s by the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Generally VFR throughout the TAF period. For this evening, CIGs in the 3500 ft to 5000 ft range will persist, with rain shower activity near KGFK. Ceilings will rise overnight, and any remaining wind gusts will drop off. On Tuesday, another round of ceilings similar to today will develop, with a few rain or even snow showers. Any impacts from these showers would be minimal (very brief visibility reductions into the MVFR range). Due to their spotty nature, low predictability and low level of impact, left any mention of precipitation out of the TAFs for now. Winds will also pick back up by mid Tuesday morning. While winds will be a little lower then today, there will still be a few gusts of up to 20 knots out there, particularly at KGFK and KFAR.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.