textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Snowfall may impact travel conditions Monday afternoon into evening in portions of eastern North Dakota into west-central Minnesota. The chance for advisory level impacts is 40%.

UPDATE

Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Light snow has hung on a bit longer then forecasted. Luckily this light snow is not causing any impacts. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with little change in thinking.

UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The winter weather advisory was allowed to expire on time at 5PM, with observations showing visibility above one mile at all sites. However, spotty snow showers continue to track through the region. The expectation is that they will continue through the evening, slowly waning in coverage and intensity. Made changes to the going gridded forecast to reflect these trends.

..Potential impacts from snowfall Monday

The next clipper-type system to move through the region will quickly move parallel to the flow aloft and, more importantly, parallel to the zone of baroclinicity. This will promote banded snowfall from warm air advection (WAA) over this zone of baroclinicity as well as weak to moderate vorticity advection aloft as the wave quickly migrates southeast.

Overall, forcing for ascent will be spatially small; and the progressive movement of the wave will traverse the clipper through the region relatively quickly. While the progressive and spatially small nature of forcing would promote less potential for accumulation, the parallel movement of forcing/precipitation to the flow aloft and temperature gradient will serve to increase chance for residence time of snowfall over any particular location.

Additionally, there is a strong signal for steep lapse rates aloft be nest within and just above the DGZ, collocated with strongest forcing aloft. This will serve to locally enhance snowfall rates through convection and efficient snow production. There is also a weak signal for frontogensis near the WAA regime, which can also locally enhance snowfall.

These mesoscale factors lend credence to locally heavy snowfall rates to accompany narrow bands of snow, of which will lead to snow accumulations between 1-3 inches of snow.

Some convective, high resolution guidance does depict a scenario where very locally high amounts in the 5-6 inch range are possible. This scenario would depend on narrow bands of heavy snow to reside over local areas for extended period of time as the progressive clipper moves through.

As of now, ensemble and high resolution guidance bring snowfall from north-central ND, southeast ND, into west-central MN. This includes portions of the western Devils Lake basin, Sheyenne River Valley, southern Red River Valley, into west-central MN.

Timing of snow into these areas is favored to be during the afternoon Monday within ND, and closer to late afternoon/early evening into west-central MN.

Heavy snow rates will likely reduce visibility between quarter to half a mile, perhaps at times below quarter mile. Weak winds less than 15 mph are forecast to accompany this, with visibility reductions purely driven by heavy snow rates.

Areas that see locally higher amounts of 3 or more inches as well as heavy snow rates will see impacts to travel. There is currently a 40% chance for advisory-level impacts in these aforementioned areas Monday afternoon into evening.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Very few changes were made to the previous set of TAFs. MVFR will continue overnight, with PROB30 groups showing light snow on the decrease over the next 3 hours. Ceilings wont budge to start off Monday, and another system tracking in from the west will bring snow to KDVL and KFAR, skirting near KGFK. KDVL will experience the highest impacts, with prevailing IFR visibilities mid morning into the early afternoon. Narrow bands of heavier snow may briefly drop visibilities below a mile, particularly at KDVL and KFAR. Future iterations of the TAF will need to be monitored for the potential inclusion of a TEMPO group to account for this, as its a bit too early yet to add one in. Ceilings will being improving at northwest terminals by afternoon (KTVF and KBJI). Improvement will be slow to make much headway to other terminals, with MVFR favored elsewhere throughout the end of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.