textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog is forecast tonight into Saturday morning. Fog may be dense.

- Dry and seasonably warm through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1144 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Fog has developed in south central ND, but so far has not made it as far as Jamestown, let alone into our southeastern ND counties. Can't rule out some stratus or fog advecting into at least Ransom and Sargent given the favorable low level wind direction from existing moisture. The HRRR and REFS have been backing off on how widespread fog gets, although they both still have a signal for that or low clouds across southeastern ND into western MN. We will most likely see something overnight, but confidence is low on any kind of fog density or if it will be low stratus. For now just have patchy fog mention and left it at that.

..Synopsis

Overall, the upper pattern through the next week will promote dry/mostly dry conditions, with a trend toward warmer than average temperatures starting Saturday, lasting through next week.

Main forecast uncertainty revolves around whether or not fog will form tonight, lasting into Saturday morning.

While low stratus has shown a clearing trend, the vast majority of guidance points toward increasing low level moisture content, enough to redevelop low stratus clouds into southern Red River Valley into Minnesota. Within this low stratus deck, fog is expected to develop as a result of low cloud deck "scraping" against the ground.

However, the location and density of fog hold low confidence. This lowered confidence mainly stems from uncertainty in whether or not low clouds dip low enough to become fog (potentially dense) or if low clouds remain just aloft limiting fog. Relatively highest chance for fog to occur reside in the hillier terrain of lakes country in MN.

Other, more localized, locations within northeast ND could experience fog, as driven by radiational fog processes (compared to fog elsewhere driven by advection fog processes).

While not hazardous, Saturday will see winds increase out of the west, with gusts to 30 mph forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites this morning. Satellite obs show patchy fog across portions of west central Minnesota; however, coverage is not expected to increase this morning. Scattered low cloud cover will continue through mid morning at KBJI, with minimal cloud cover elsewhere. Winds increase out of the west heading into the midday and afternoon hours, with KDVL seeing the highest potential for gusts up to 30 knots, and slightly lower gusts at all other TAF sites. Wind direction starts out of the southwest, but will shift to the west and west northwest this afternoon and evening. Low level wind shear is possible late in the TAF period as winds remain slightly elevated just off the surface.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.