textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Level 2 out of 5 severe risk this afternoon into early evening with a primary risk for large hail along with secondary risk for winds to 70 mph, brief tornadoes, and flash flooding.

- Level 2 out of 5 severe risk late Tuesday for hail and damaging wind gusts along and south of I-94/HWY 10.

- There is a level 2 of 4 risk for flash flooding across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota Tuesday night into Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Storms have pushed south and east of the forecast area, and all watches and warnings have been allowed to expire. The cold front lingers over west central MN, but should push south before morning. Another shortwave looks like it will ride the boundary and could bring additional showers and storms to our area. At this point the primary issue looks to be heavy rain, but can't rule out some marginal severe in our south.

UPDATE Issued at 708 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Cold front has pushed south and east, with winds shifting to the northwest at Valley City, Grand Forks, Roseau, and other sites along the northern and western edge of the severe thunderstorm watch. Convection has stayed out ahead of the cold front, and although dew points are still quite moist right behind the boundary, drier air is slowly moving in. Let the watch go for our east central ND and northwestern MN counties. As for the convection, will have to watch the intersection of the cold front and a few pre-frontal troughs across the southern Red River Valley and west central MN. There seems to be a transition to more clustering/linear type threat, although can't rule out a brief weak tornado in a few spots.

..Severe storm potential late Tuesday

Today's cold front stalls within SD and central or southern MN by Tuesday. Another shortwave trough moves eastward through the zonal flow across the Dakotas, sparking thunderstorms near the stalled front. This front, and instability near it, is expected to be close enough to our area to allow for potential strong to severe storms to spread eastward within southeast ND and west- central MN. Main hazards with this activity will be hail to the size of quarters and gusty winds to 60 mph, although should the front be placed deeper into our area, hail to the size of golf balls and 70 mph may ensue.

Perhaps more at the forefront of hazards is potential for flash flooding in these areas. This is driven by strong forcing combined with very rich moisture overrunning the front, of which instability will also be present. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches, perhaps up to 4 inches, is reasonable expectation. Should this fall on areas that receive high rain today, excessive rainfall leading to flooding would be increased.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions as thunderstorms have moved south and east of our TAF sites. A few of the high resolution models try and bring some fog to our southeastern counties, but with dry air moving in not sure how much low visibility we will get. Probabilities of less than 1 mile visibility from more recent model runs keep chances below 20 percent for our TAF sites. Kept it VFR overnight for now. Additional showers and thunderstorms will move in later on Tuesday afternoon, so continued to include the prob30 group. Winds will be light and variable or from the north at less than 12 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.