textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening northwest Minnesota.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon into the evening across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota with hail, wind, and lightning. - Well above normal temperatures are expected this week, with near record highs today.

UPDATE

Issued at 651 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 427 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Updated key messages. SPS issued for near critical fire weather conditions for this afternoon and early evening in northwest Minnesota where RH values will be in the low to mid 20s percent. A weak frontal boundary will exist late today from southeast ND into central MN with mixed layer CAPES 1500-2000 j/kg with risk of a few storms developing. 0-6 km shear 25 kt range, so marginal for organized storms and severe weather. Hazards would be hail 0.50 to 1 inch and wind gusts 45-60 mph.

..Isolated strong thunderstorms Tuesday

CAMs support the signal in global models/ensembles that scattered thunderstorms should develop as the CAP weakens near the frontal zone stalled over our CWA late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Steep mid level lapse rates should be in place, and guidance that favors Tds over 60F also show more robust thermodynamic profiles and the potential for MUCAPE values to exceed 2000 J/KG. Shear is trickier as initially weaker flow under the ridge axis limits effective shear (generally 25kt or less) and convection may remain more pulsy in nature. However there is a signal for a building LLJ (mainly in ND) during the evening hours and hodographs/effective shear 30kt+ and even with lower CAPE values in the 1000-15000 J/KG this could support a risk for marginally severe hail, though coverage would be limited.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 651 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR today...skies mainly clear most of the day, though some increasing cirrus into west central MN. Risk of a few storms developing late afternoon into tonight in a region from Devils Lake to Fergus Falls and in this area brief aviation issues may occur due to t-storms. Otherwise an east wind today 8-15 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.