textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Well below average temperatures continue unseasonably cool conditions today, then milder.

- Near critical or critical fire weather conditions may develop Thursday into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Not much change to the forecast overnight. Minor tweeks to sky cover. Today will be the last day of the upper wave and its cool air aloft and cloud cover. Some breaks of sun again, but clouds will remain predominate. Coord with BIS and will mention near critical fire weather in HWO for eastern ND. For MN counties, coordination likely needed as due to RH near critical or critical RH values may occur Thursday as well, despite lower wind speeds. So will not jump the gun and go near critical wording yet in MN counties until more coordination on this can be done.

..Fire weather concerns late this week

Vast majority of guidance indicates a very dry air mass moving into the Dakotas and Minnesota from the west starting Thursday. This will push RH values into the 20s Thursday and Friday, perhaps even into the teens if deeper mixing occurs. This is very dry for our area. Deeper mixing will likely ensue if we stay mostly sunny on either of these days, which still remains a possibility, but is low in confidence.

While confidence is high in very dry conditions developing these days, confidence is low on winds. This is again stemming from potential to mix deeper than currently advertised. While winds currently forecast are under 25 mph, if even a slight push of deeper mixing occurs, gusts could reach into the 30s mph. This would result in critical fire weather conditions if this occurs.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Widespread stratus in the VFR ranges (3500-5000ft agl) is in place across eastern ND and northwest MN. There is still a strong consensus in guidance for a period of MVFR (1800-3000ft agl) after 10Z developing out of Canada, with the most likely impacts as far south as the Highway 2 corridor in the 12-17Z period Wednesday morning. This includes KDVL, KGFK, KTVF, and KBJI, remaining north of KFAR. This is shown to improve back to the 4000-6000ft agl range after 17Z, with gusty west-northwest winds through the afternoon.

Drier air arrives with high pressure out of Saskatchewan Wednesday evening as the flow that has kept the stratus in place erodes/moves off to the east. This should support clearing trends and decreasing winds (5kt or less).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.