textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this afternoon, with the main hazard wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch. Locally heavy rainfall may also lead to minor flooding.

..SEVERE STORMS TODAY

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon and evening hours, with likely expansion in some areas. Precipitable water is fairly high, between 1.5-1.9", and flow is extremely weak aloft. Shear within the lowest 6km is at best 5-15 knots and the bulk of shear is above 300mb. DCAPE is fairly high and above 1000 J/kg, especially the further south and east you go. As a result, downburst winds are likely at times this afternoon, but should be a fairly sporadic nature and unlikely to be widespread. With the very slow forward propagation of convection however, flash flooding may develop this afternoon/evening if storms stay over one area long enough. With the antecedent dry conditions though, it will likely be difficult to get much more than urban flooding. While not impossible to see rural flash flooding, the ongoing drought makes the probability low. Storms will continue through the evening, but with near surface stabilization as time goes on, downburst winds will likely become less widespread (or as widespread as now).

Finally, the sad truth with this is the scattered convection will make some get decent rain amounts, but not everyone. Don't expect a widespread heavy rainfall event. Some will get quite a bit but others may not see much.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon, however the scattered nature of thunderstorms make predictability for terminal impacts low. This will continue through the early evening hours with precipitation ending closer to 06z. Winds will remain light and variable this afternoon but should shift to northerly to northwesterly later this evening as a front sags southward. Once this occurs, this wind direction should linger through the end of the TAF period. Ceilings associated with thunderstorms may become briefly MVFR, but overall VFR conditions should prevail for a majority of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.