textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost and freeze conditions are expected late tonight into Monday morning.

- There is a chance for strong wind gusts 45 mph or higher Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday as several fronts pass through the region during the daytime and evening periods.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected over parts of the region each afternoon Monday through Friday. There is a 30% chance for Red Flag Conditions during these periods.

UPDATE

Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Clear skies prevail this evening in most areas, with scattered cumulus diminishing over northwest Minnesota. This clearing should allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s, with a few cooler spots likely around Lake of the Woods. Winds will begin to increase overnight, especially west of the Red River Valley, which should serve to limit the lower extent of colder temps.

..Fire weather impacts this week

The inherent uncertainty with the periods of strong wind/frontal passages also results in increased uncertainty on timing/location of lowest RH values in relation to the timing of stronger winds that could result in critical fire weather conditions/Red Flag Conditions. Much drier mixed layer Tds are initially in place through Monday, however as the front approaches mixed layer Tds are shown to increase near the prefrontal trough. There is still a window in our far east/north central MN counties where RH values may fall to 25% or less, however this is ahead of the stronger mixed layer winds. Near critical fire weather conditions appear more likely at this point Monday afternoon for those counties. RH values become much less certain through the week (especially towards the end of the week) as deeper moisture return favors increased mixed layer Tds (even if there is deeper mixing), only offset by the potential for higher temperatures in the 70s and 80s (outside signal for values near 90 in the souther RRV Thursday). As we get closer to the periods when shorter range guidance starts better resolving smaller scale features/frontal timing we should be able to get a better handle on periods when Red Flag conditions may occur.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Ceilings will be VFR throughout the TAF period, but strong southerly winds will bring aviation impacts on Monday. The strongest period of winds will be from late Monday morning throughout the afternoon, into the early evening. During this time, gusts will exceed 30 knots at KGFK, KFAR and KDVL. Towards the very end of the TAF period, showers and thunderstorms may skirt near northern terminals. Probabilities were too low to add any mention into the TAFs at this time, but future iterations may need to add some sort of mention, either in the form of PROB30s or TEMPOs. Also worth mentioning - blowing dust is a possibility tomorrow afternoon at KFAR and KGFK. This also seems to be a low predictability/probability occurrence, with a worst case scenario being visibility dropping down into the upper tier of MVFR (5SM). This was not added into the TAFs, but it will be worth monitoring Monday afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ001-002-004>009- 013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ003-029-030-040.