textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Level 2 out of 5 severe risk this evening for hail and damaging wind gusts along and south of I-94/HWY 10.

- There is a level 2 of 4 risk for flash flooding across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Heat arrives over the weekend with potential for hazardous heat indices and WBGT values.

UPDATE

Issued at 724 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

High clouds spreading eastward thru E ND into the RRV at 10z. Patchy stratocu over west central and north central MN. Rain showers and a few t-storms in western ND and they will continue to move east. Pops were updated but basically not a lot different than prev fcst. Focus for heavier rainfall and t-storms will be near the 850 mb front where 850 mb wind convergence and frontogenetical forcing is maximized. That seems to be between I-94 and the SD border in ND then into central MN. For severe weather...SPC kept level 2 out of 5 risk in far southern fcst area but feel it will end up being a bit farther south than that with HREF indicating max updraft helicities focused more near ABR-ATY zone this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Storms have pushed south and east of the forecast area, and all watches and warnings have been allowed to expire. The cold front lingers over west central MN, but should push south before morning. Another shortwave looks like it will ride the boundary and could bring additional showers and storms to our area. At this point the primary issue looks to be heavy rain, but can't rule out some marginal severe in our south.

UPDATE Issued at 708 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Cold front has pushed south and east, with winds shifting to the northwest at Valley City, Grand Forks, Roseau, and other sites along the northern and western edge of the severe thunderstorm watch. Convection has stayed out ahead of the cold front, and although dew points are still quite moist right behind the boundary, drier air is slowly moving in. Let the watch go for our east central ND and northwestern MN counties. As for the convection, will have to watch the intersection of the cold front and a few pre-frontal troughs across the southern Red River Valley and west central MN. There seems to be a transition to more clustering/linear type threat, although can't rule out a brief weak tornado in a few spots.

..Severe storm potential late Tuesday

Today's cold front stalls within SD and central or southern MN by Tuesday. Another shortwave trough moves eastward through the zonal flow across the Dakotas, sparking thunderstorms near the stalled front. This front, and instability near it, is expected to be close enough to our area to allow for potential strong to severe storms to spread eastward within southeast ND and west- central MN. Main hazards with this activity will be hail to the size of quarters and gusty winds to 60 mph, although should the front be placed deeper into our area, hail to the size of golf balls and 70 mph may ensue.

Perhaps more at the forefront of hazards is potential for flash flooding in these areas. This is driven by strong forcing combined with very rich moisture overrunning the front, of which instability will also be present. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches, perhaps up to 4 inches, is reasonable expectation. Should this fall on areas that receive high rain today, excessive rainfall leading to flooding would be increased.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 724 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Increasing high and then mid level cloud cover spread eastward today with shower and t-storm chances increasing this afternoon in eastern ND/RRV...tonight highest chances of showers/t-storms Fargo area and south. At that time during heavier t-storms vsbys may drop to IFR levels (below 3SM) with ceilings 2000-3000 ft agl. GFK DVL TVF BJI likely to remain in the VFR cloud and vsby range thru tonight and lesser chance of t-storms.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.