textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances Sunday/Monday with potential for a more widespread precip event later this week though multiple scenarios remain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Synoptic flow over the next week will largely be dominated by troughing currently located over Washington/southern British Columbia and its slow movement through the great basin and how it interacts with downstream eastern CONUS riding. In the near term the post-tropical remnants of Isaias will work to weaken subtropical high over Bermuda allowing eastern ridging an avenue to weaken and shift east/southeast. At the same time troughing across eastern canada/Hudson bay will work south flattening the riding and allowing flow across the north CONUS to become more zonal by early next week in the mid levels.

- Today

Looking at current surface obs a cold front is currently situated across central North Dakota with strong southerly warm air advection ahead of it across much of our area. This currently kicking off some elevated showers atop a well mixed layer with about 200mb of dry air beneath them preventing anything from reaching the ground. Wouldn't be surprised to see some strong winds occasionally make to the surface as showers move past (30-40mph) via virga bombs and even some lightning later today as the instability profiles builds to over 500 MUCAPE. Mixing will remain strongest in out south this afternoon with winds to 20mph and gusts occasionally over 30mph (synoptic not convective). RH has already fallen to near 30 percent along the SD/ND/MN border with further falls into the mid/lower 20s percent by 3pm bringing near critical fire weather to southeast ND and west central MN this afternoon. Fuels remain questionable with ERC still below the daily average (around 15-20). An SPS remains in effect to aid the messaging of this but a RFW is not being considered.

- Weekend rain

Transient vorticity advection through the next 2 days will bring scattered showers with a moistening airmass in the wake of todays cold front. Warm air advection will also be a primary source of lift through the period but overall forcing remain fairly nebulous through Sunday morning. Thereafter a general tenth to quarter inch seems likley along and north of HWY 200 from Sunday afternoon through Monday night.

- Late week precip chances

PNW troughing by Tuesday will have developed into an upper low completely cutoff from steering flow over the great basin with a strong jet stream extending northeast from the desert southwest into the midwest and upper great lakes. This strong 100+ kt jet stream will induce a strong surface response with moisture streaming northward from the gulf coast as SW flow aloft bring forcing later in the week from ejecting shortwaves to ring out the available moisture. The parts that remain uncertain are 1) the northward extent of moisture and 2) how any passing waves interact with said moisture (track/timing). Given this uncertainty there remains a decent amount of spread in clusters with anywhere from a 0.25 to over an inch of widespread precip from Wednesday through Friday next week. Some guidance does show an airmass potentially cold enough to bring varying p-types into play but being 5-7 days out still would like to some some consistency in that before raising any cause for alarm.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Presently VFR conditions will change to MVFR, IFR, and at locations like KBJI, LIFR. These changing conditions are a result of a cold front moving through the area, changing winds from light and variable to north-northwest 10-20kt. Gusts into the upper 20kts are forecast within the Red River Valley, including KGFK and KFAR Monday after 12Z. There is around a 40% chance gusts could touch 30kt, but likely not exceed 33kt.

There is high confidence in this trend in conditions, mainly as a result of lowering ceilings behind the cold front. At KBJI, LIFR ceilings may be accompanied by lowered visibilities from either BR or FG, with LIFR ceilings forecast after 10Z. It remains unclear how dense fog may be, if fog develops at all at KBJI.

Rain showers are forecast to be within the region late tonight into Monday, although low confidence in the coverage of rain showers omits its inclusion within TAFs. Even if rain does move over a site, rain will be light enough to not impact flight categories from vsby reductions.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.