textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will run near normal through the weekend before warming up early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 344 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

For today, cloud cover will be the main challenge. High pressure remains well to our north in northeast Manitoba today with high pressure ridge southward into the Red River valley. Low level drying will continue to push south and northwest MN area should see the most sun today. Clearing will work west gradually as drier air moves in but western fcst area may be the toughest to clear and may not occur until much later today or tonight.

..Synopsis

Broad northwest upper flow continues tonight, with flow turning more northerly heading into tomorrow. Weak shortwaves are traversing the flow this evening and overnight, with a chance for light rain showers and even some snow showers. Ground/pavement temperatures remain widely above freezing in the 40s north of HWY 2 to near 60 in the far south this afternoon. Air temperatures in the mid 30s however are already supportive of snow across much of the Lake of the Woods/Red Lakes area with showers (both rain and snow) to overspread much of the forecast area this afternoon and persist into tonight. There is a low (10%) probability for some freezing drizzle to mix in through saturation looks to generally be deep enough to reach to warm end of the DGZ and allow for ice nucleation. Perhaps elevated surfaces could be at and increased risk of icing but otherwise impacts should be minimal. With any snow that falls, rates should be low and not enough to overcome warm roads but some grassy accumulations could be seen from Park rapids to Grygla/Roseau and east to the Red Lakes. Would not expect more than 1" even in higher end scenarios where lake effect processes occur downstream of Lake of the Woods and the Red Lakes.

Daytime highs will be in the 30s on Thursday through Saturday. Overnight lows fall into the teens Thursday night into Friday morning with wind chills falling into the single digits at times in Devils Lake Basin. Aside from the showers today/tonight, dry weather is expected to persist through much of the forecast period. Warmth returns late weekend with highs back in the 50s for the first half of next week.

Looking down the road a bit, there is growing support for a potentially active period of weather starting towards the latter half of next week. This starts with a strong signal for blocking across the central CONUS and into most of the Canadian Prairies. Resultant troughs form on either side of the mid level ridge, which eventually dislodge and work eastward. Ensemble clusters are beginning to support solutions that hint at precipitation toward the very end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 547 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Today will see a mix of clear sky and clouds, with cloud bases predominately in the 2000 to 3000 ft agl range. Overall anticipate a decrease in cloud cover most areas thru the day and the timing of each TAF site for BKN vs SCT will be the part that will be amended as needed thru the day. North winds today under 10 kts, then light and variable tonight.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.