textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong to severe storms in the southern Red River Valley into lakes country of west- central and north-central Minnesota. The main hazards will be hail to the size of quarters and gusty winds to 55 mph.

- Fourth of July afternoon holds medium chance for widely scattered thunderstorms. Main hazard is lightning, with very low chance of storms being severe.

..Fourth of July

Weak to perhaps moderate instability still should remain across the region for the 4th of July, but the upper flow pattern again is very weak. Due to the ongoing festivities and outdoor activities for the 4th, we do want to note that there is the potential for heavy rainfall/showers and thunderstorms. However, there is very high uncertainty in the scope of showers and thunderstorms as this will largely depend on antecedent convection dropping outflow boundaries/convergent zones.

With the lack of flow aloft as well, storms may be stationary in some locations, so minor flooding couldn't be ruled out, especially if this occurs over urban landscapes. Overall this carries very low predictability. There is currently a 40% chance of showers/storms by the afternoon across the entire area, although the spatial extent of storms should remain scattered.

Severe storm potential is very low thanks to very weak shear and lack of better forcing.

Heat impacts are not expected with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, dew points in the low 60s, and generally partly to mostly cloudy skies keeping sun-related impacts low.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions should prevail in eastern ND and northwest MN, with the lone exceptions where isolated thunderstorm activity tracks in northwest MN (brief MVFR conditions). That activity should end over the next few hours with sunset. There is a signal still for MVFR stratus towards north central ND and north central MN which may impact KDVL and KBJI during the 11-14Z period. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds (less than 10kt) are expected through Saturday afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.

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