textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and storms today thru the Fourth of July weekend.

- Main Severe storm risk is this afternoon and evening, focusing on southeast North Dakota where a level 3 out of 5 risk exists from SPC. Isolated severe storms Friday all areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 655 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The earlier storms in Montana last evening moving east and were mostly weakening as one would expect. A cluster of storms got going again though east of Bowman ND and those are moving east and near Bismarck and south into far north central SD. So will watch this to see what happens. Not surprisingly CAMs not picking up on this well.

..Synopsis

Well established upper low lingers in central MB, with subsident southwesterly flow over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Much drier air mass at the surface compared to yesterday will keep conditions mostly dry (save some light showers in northeast ND and northwest MN closer to the upper low) today and Wednesday. Breezy winds will also be present, along with temperatures near average in the 70s and 80s.

Ensemble guidance doesn't migrate the MB upper low eastward until around Thursday. This is when ensemble guidance strongly suggests one or more low amplitude shortwave trough/s move out of the Rockies into the Northern Plains amid broad upper troughing/southwesterly flow. This will allow for gradual return of low level moisture back into the Dakotas, leading to medium to high chance for showers and storms late Thursday. At this time, there is a low chance for storms to be strong to severe, particularly if they organize and move eastward out of central Dakotas; however, predictability is low in exactly how much moisture, instability, and wind shear will be available to sustain organized convection as it enters into eastern ND and northwest/west-central MN.

Ensemble guidance agrees in generally meager southwesterly flow aloft late this week turning more zonal by the end of the weekend as upper ridging attempts to establish itself in the Great Basin/Southwest. This will continue daily chances for showers and storms into the Fourth of July holiday weekend as moisture and warmer temperatures gradually increase into our area. There continues to be a chance that some storms during this period could be strong to severe, although a lack of more robust instability and wind shear limits the upper end of potential severe. Of course, important mesoscale features and subsequently uncertain convective evolution markedly lowers predictability when assessing potential hazards at this time.

Previous messaging of potential heat impacts during the Fourth of July has trended downward. However, there is still a chance for minor heat-related impacts driven by a chance for temperatures into the 90s and dew points into the mid 60s to perhaps 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through this evening, mainly in southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota, so impacts to FAR are possible. However, the scattered nature creates high uncertainty on terminal impacts, so PROB30 groups were held at FAR. Other TAF sites feature very low probabilities for showers and thunderstorms, so they were not included on the routine TAF issuance here. Should thunderstorms impact FAR, hail may arise with variable wind gusts approaching 50 knots.

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into the evening for all TAF sites. There is a weak signal for MVFR ceilings to arise at DVL, but confidence in this is very low at this point in time, so we have generally left it at VFR. Should MVFR ceilings arise, the timeframe will be generally 07z-16z. Otherwise, generally limited aviation impacts can be expected once afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms dissipate.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.