textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this afternoon, with the main hazard wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch. Locally heavy rainfall may also lead to minor flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Not much going on at 08z. Weakening showers in S Manitoba and a few along the North Dakota border as well. But overall nothing yet to get anything going of significance. For today, uncertainity is what comes to mind in terms of thunderstorm development, coverage and intensity. Upper level short wave will move thru South Dakota into eastern South Dakota by days end and then into southwest Minnesota Friday. Highest PWATS and 850 mb moist advection remains south more so on the south edge of this upper wave which puts highest rain chances southern half of South Dakota into Nebraska and then into southwest Minnesota later tonight. There will be enough forcing for likely more scattered activity over southeast ND into west central MN particularly this afternoon and evening. Weak frontal boundary with north wind shift will lie from around Roseau to Grand Forks to north of Bismarck early this evening and there could a focus of some storms along it as well. 0-6 km bulk shear is 20 kts so not an environment for likely sustained supercells and more of a slow moving thunderstorm clusters. Where those develop and track will see locally heavy rainfall of 1+ inches. The most likely area for that is far southeast ND into west central MN. The trend is to push heaviest rainfall potential farther south. Farther north shower and t-storm chances exist but looks like rainfall for most in the drier parts of the region will be less than what was hoped. DCAPE this afternoon will be 900 to 1300 so wind gusts to 60 mph is the more likely hazard for any strong storm that would form and sustain an updraft. Cannot rule out hail to 1 inch but warm column so not a hail producing system.

..Strong to severe storms Thursday

As the cold front sags into eastern ND and the northern Red River Valley Thursday morning, thunderstorms are expected to develop as early as mid morning. Additional thunderstorms will percolate and merge with each other given increasing forcing for ascent as well as overall weak flow within the cloud baring layer - the exception to weak flow is in the upper portions of the cloud layer which may help vent storms and provide some hail generation, although not anticipating very large hail with this activity (generally not anticipating hail greater than 1 inch).

While overall flow is weak, high lower level moisture and high temperatures along with cooling temperatures aloft are contributing to DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. This will drive potential for strong gusts to 60 mph, and would be more likely to occur should outflow from cluster/s of storms consolidate.

Convective rates of at least 1 inch per hour will bring the potential for heavy rain leading to flash flooding, particularly over more vulnerable landscapes like urban areas and poor drainage areas. This is driven by relatively slow storm motions of thunderstorms amid rich moisture and high instability, and potential for training storms. Relatively higher chance for this to occur resides in the southern Red River Valley into west-central MN. With ongoing very dry antecedent conditions, rural landscapes will likely not be as vulnerable to flooding compared to urban landscapes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The main impact over the next 24 hours to terminals is the potential for thunderstorms, first at KDVL tonight, then more area wide into Thursday morning and afternoon. PROB30s were maintained at KDVL and KFAR, as there is enough model guidance agreement at these terminals to highlight a specific timeframe for storm development. As for other terminals, latest model guidance actually shows even more spread in when storms may develop then before, as it may be later in the day then previously thought. There are also signs storms may not be as widespread as previously thought. All told, this uncertainty keeps probabilities for storms at other terminals too low to add any mention into the TAFs at this time. Future TAFs may see an inclusion of TSRA once model guidance starts to signal a more consistent timeframe for impacts. Finally, winds will switch from the south to the north by the end of the TAF period at most terminals. Winds should not be all that high, generally under 12 knots. However, there may be higher and variable winds under thunderstorm activity.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.