textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a medium chance for thunderstorms early next week. Potential exists for strong to severe storms on Monday over portions of southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Light showers are moving eastward this evening, mainly across areas of west central and northwest Minnesota. Winds remain out of the northwest at 10-20 mph, with temperatures in the upper 60s in the north to upper 70s in west central Minnesota. Cloud cover is expected to continue this evening with partial clearing and lighter winds overnight.

..Severe Thunderstorm Risk Monday

The strongest part of the upper trough remains north of our region, and there is still quite a bit of spread regarding the timing of PVA/forcing along the base of the upper low in Canada. There is at leas a signal for showers and thunderstorms with 40-60% probabilities for wetting rain (0.1"+). However, the potential for severe thunderstorm impacts will depend on the timing of both the larger scale forcing and surface features/mesoscale details which are still carrying lower predictability/higher spread with multiple scenarios on location, timing, coverage of severe coverage. Machine learning and AI based systems still highlight a 5%+ potential for severe storms Monday afternoon into Monday night in southeast ND towards parts of west central and northwest MN.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

MVFR conditions prevail at KTVF, and KBJI, with VFR and intermittent MVFR conditions at KGFK, KFAR, and KDVL. Stratus and scattered to broken cloud cover are expected to continue through the evening, with partial clearing overnight for KFAR and KDVL. Elsewhere, cloud cover remains somewhat persistent through the period, especially at KTVF and KBJI. There is a low chance for patchy fog in areas where we see the most clearing tonight. Additional stratus could form towards midday on Sunday, bringing ceilings close to MVFR levels once more at all locations.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.

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