textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Main period of concern is Thursday overnight into Friday behind the passage of the arctic front. Late Thu night/Fri AM has likely advisory impacts from blowing snow, 10 percent chance of warning impacts due to blowing snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 558 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Skies are mostly clear at 11z. Though thre is an area of high clouds spreading south already in advance of warm advection ahead of the next system. Other than some tweeks to sky cover no changes needed.

..Synopsis

Temperature roller coaster continues ad naseum with arctic front passage Tuesday aftn/eve. Little to no snow with the front however. Wind gusts coming down now early this morning and skies are mainly clear with last cloud patch in west central MN. Sfc high over the area today with center over the RRV 18z today. Winds will turn southerly late today and then increase tonight in warm advection pattern. Warm advection precipitation in the form of light snow anticipated to move south-southeast and clip northeast ND and northwest MN tonight. Soundings would support a chance for wintry mix on west edge of precipitation. Attm though precipitation area via HREF and ensembles support light snow in areas where higher chances exist (Langdon-TRF-Bemidji and north). Accumulations less than half inch.

Thursday will see mild airmass in place over the area with temperatures rising into the low to mid 30s. 500 mb trough upstream in central Canada advances south into North Dakota and northern Minnesota Thursday aftn but well south of any cold air and well south of weak low pressure which Thursday aftn is in northeast Manitoba. But will see increased light snow chances Thursday aftn/eve with models highlighting best snow chances in parts of NW MN (TRF/Bemidji area) where an inch or two is possible. Gusty west-northwest winds Thursday, but highest winds and best mixing are west of the fcst area, with highest wind speeds noted in southern Saskatchewan, eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Wind speeds are not likely to enter the advisory range in our forecast area of E ND thru Thursday evening. But something to watch esp for DVL region. Temps in snow area in MN will be around 30 and wind speed fcsts 10-18kts so attm advisory impacts would be limited.

...Main period of concern for blowing snow impacts Thursday overnight-Friday...

Sfc low with this system well to our north/east and also pretty weak, so surface pressure gradient not intense, low pressue likely near Thunder Bay Ontario late Thu night and then lower Michigan on Friday. There will be a well defined arctic front that is anticipated to be near the Canadian border around 06z Fri and this will drop south thru 12z Fri. With this arctic front likely a period of snow, and sharp cold advection. Ingredients present for potential band of brief intense snow with arctic front as it drops south thru E ND and NW MN. 09z to 18z Fri period will see highest wind potential with soundings from NAM indicating potential for 45 kt gusts at the sfc with in the RRV. 925 mb winds within the RRV 40-45 kts centered around 12z Fri. Snowfall 06z-18z Fri and covearge of snow showers and intensity of them will play a huge role in visibility impacts (advisory vs warning). Snowfall this period in grids are in the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range. This would be blowable snow, now how much may fall prior to 06z Fri would determine any additional blowable snow. So scenerios range from advisory impacts due to gusty winds and widespread 1/2SM to 1SM vsby to locally/brief 1/4SM vsby in heavier snow showers. How long these very low vsbys will last is the main unknown at this time. Wind direction from 330 degrees would favor lowest vsbys in the eastern RRV section from Hallock thru Crookston to Fergus Falls.

Clipper system does look to pass thru early Sunday, but differences from a glancing blow and weak to actual low and some accumulating snow. ECMWF being the strongest.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR thru 12z Thu. Increasing cirrus and then mid clouds thru the period as warm advection takes hold, though most of the cloud increase is late today into this evening. Some light snow is anticipated and this may affect TVF/BJI after 09z but chances at this time too low to mention.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.