textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Icing continues this afternoon across northwest/west central Minnesota

- Much warmer this weekend with elevated fire weather potential.

- Snow chances return for the workweek.

..Synopsis

A couple waves can be noted amid amplified SW flow in the plains and southeast CONUS ridging this morning. A lead wave is currently centered in Wisconsin with a modest 50kt mid level speed max with a more potent wave beginning to eject out the base of the trough back near the Four Corners region. This wave has a more robust 70kt 500mb max back in New Mexico progged to be in southern MN around midnight. This rapid forward speed of the wave should provide ample DCVA for sustained lift in our SE across west central MN tonight for continued light rain/freezing rain (as temps cool). Looking ahead to the weekend the Four Corners trough becomes a cut off low with split flow emerging and zonal northern stream flow taking hold and bringing a much warmer Rocky Mountain downslope airmass to our region. A passing shortwave to our north (ensembles vary on amplitude) late Sunday into Monday then pushes the baroclinic zone back south just enough that future transient shortwave activity could favor a pesky rainy/snowy couple days through the work week as highs vary from the 30s to 40s (will depend exactly where the baroclinic zone is).

- Today/Tonight

Strong forcing, while short lived, tonight will be present as the shortwave ejecting from the Four Corners advances into the MN/WI area while we find our area in the left exit region of the jet. While the best DCVA is currently being modeled to miss us to the south, lakes country (Detroit Lakes to Bemidji) will get a glancing blow with the crashing cold front aloft transitioning any remaining ongoing precip to snow (up to a half inch). Additional freezing rain looks to be minimal with the radar likely a little misleading at the moment showing nothing, but likely can attribute that to overshooting rather than a lack of anything ongoing. Overall it seems the potential for continued widespread freezing rain or drizzle looks minimal and with the current 511 maps mostly green indicating no ongoing impacts and 90% of webcams showing something similar have decided to drop to the advisory for all but Lakes Country.

- Weekend Warmth/Fire Weather

As split flow emerges behind todays wintry precip a notable warm up is on tap for Saturday but more so for Sunday. Highs on Saturday near 40 along and north of HWY 2 but near in the southern Red River Valley and southeast North Dakota with winds of 20mph gusting 30- 35mph in the same area. HDWI seems a bit bullish on the significance of the fire weather potential as it exceeds the 90th percentile of the climate period but actually reaching near critical levels will hinge upon maxing out the mixing potential and getting RH lower than the currently forecast values in the low 40s. A reasonable worst case get RH closer to the upper 20s/low 30s with LL LR near 8.0- 8.5C/km indicating strong mixing. Sunday even more of a concern as mixing looks overall better agreed upon with highs in the 50s south of HWY 2 and 60s possible for most south of HWY 200, Min RH in 30s (confident) to as low as the 20s. With similar strength winds to Saturday this looks like the real day to watch but being over 48 hours out will wait to significantly raise the alarm.

- Back to winter

For the work week the baroclinic zone works back south with a couple transient shortwaves looking to ride along it as temps on the north side sit in the 30s and to the south 40s (overall seasonable). NBM probs show a persistent 20-40% each day for greater than a trace of snow indicating the overall favorable set up for snow to happen but indicates no real period of favored activity, just a favorable set up. That is aside from Tuesday when a wave is better agreed upon by ensembles to track along the gradient near the ND/SD border with a 30% for an inch or more but details remain pretty murky due to uncertainties in amplitude of the wave and its track. Details to come on this in later forecasts but certainly wouldn't expect this to turn into a blockbuster system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

GFK: High confidence in MVFR (brief IFR as ceilings bounce around at 1kft through 20z) through midnight before ceiling become SCT and eventually VFR towards the end of the period Saturday afternoon.

LIFR to IFR yet this morning at FAR, BJI, and TVF where fog and low stratus remain through the next few hours, lifting by 00z. Confidence overall remains low on when conditions at all sites may reach VFR but current guidance shows at least a moderate chance of clearing out by the end of the period by 18z tomorrow. Winds briefly elevated this afternoon/evening (mainly GFK/FAR) with N/NW gusts over 20kts before the front works through Saturday morning turning winds SW.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ017- 023-024-027-028-030>032-040.