textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering light rain showers this afternoon, mainly within Minnesota. - Above average temperatures are forecast this weekend into next week.

..Synopsis

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a mid level shortwave trough moving east-northeast through the Dakotas and Minnesota amid quasi- southwesterly to zonal flow aloft. At the surface, an occluded front is working its way west to east. Seasonably rich moisture and even some instability resides east of the surface front ahead of the shortwave trough. This is driving scattered light showers within the Red River Valley and Minnesota this afternoon. The window for additional thunderstorms in west- central MN has closed with instability already being shunted away to the east.

Tonight, a reinforcing cold front will reintroduce low stratus to areas along and north of US Highway 2, with mostly clear skies elsewhere. This along with increasing surface high pressure nosing into the region and lightening winds may allow temperatures to drop into the mid 20s within portions of eastern ND.

Thursday will be seasonably cool with highs in the 40s and dry amid the post-frontal air mass. Starting Friday, ensemble guidance all points toward upper ridging building into the Northern Plains. This will trend temperatures toward above average, particularly by Saturday. The way this upper ridging builds may also promote low stratus, fog/drizzle - this lowers confidence in exactly how warm temperatures get. Should low clouds/fog/drizzle linger, temperatures may be just slightly above average with high temperatures in the 50s. However, if skies clear, temperatures could soar well into the 60s - especially on Sunday into Monday.

Getting into early to mid next week, ensemble guidance also hints at an upper shortwave trough in the Southwest to either translate or cut off eastward into the Southern and/or Central Plains. While most of this forcing looks to remain south of our area, there could be enough influence from this feature to bring the next round of light rain into the forecast. With how warm antecedent temperatures will be ahead of this feature, as well as lack of colder air advecting behind it, rain would be the favored precipitation type.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Impacts to aviation mainly stem from lowered ceilings and reduced visibility. Overall, these impacts have remained in the MVFR to LIFR range. This will continue for sites like KGFK, KFAR, KTVF, and KBJI this afternoon into early evening, with VFR conditions spreading west to east during this time as well.

There is a medium to high chance additional lower ceilings after 06Z will impact sites like KTVF and KBJI. Chance was high enough to include in these TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.