textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow and blowing snow will impact travel conditions this evening into Sunday in eastern North Dakota and Red River Valley. There is a 40% chance for blizzard conditons to develop in open country in the eastern Red River Valley.

- Near blizzard conditions are possible in the eastern Red River Valley Sunday. The chance for blizzard conditions to develop in open country is 20%.

UPDATE

Issued at 649 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Observations across the region generally sit between 0.50 to 1 mile. Having said that, there is the classic eastern Red River Valley region that appears to have a greater spatial coverage of whiteout conditions (1/4 mile or less). It is difficult to determine the actual spatial frequency of these conditions, however observation stations indicate that whiteout conditions are highly dependent on snowfall rates and the blowing snow table confirms this (needing 0.50 inches/hour to get whiteout). Based on radar trends and accumulation algorithms, this does appear to be occurring from Kittson County down through Polk and Norman Counties. We will be monitoring closely for a potential upgrade in this area, however given the likelihood of 0.50 inch per hour rates not lasting much longer, there is only a 40% chance for a Blizzard Warning there right now. If duration appears like it may be longer, the probability will increase with it.

..Travel impacts today and Sunday

Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory into the Devils Lake basin and Sheyenne River Valley due to the combination of snow, blowing snow, and gusty southerly winds 30-40 mph. This is reducing visibility to half a mile or less, occasionally less than quarter mile (namely in the northern Devils Lake basin).

Increased pressure gradient ahead of the approaching clipper is bringing gusty south winds 25-40 mph this morning into afternoon for portions of eastern ND and Red River Valley. This is combining with falling snow creating significantly reduced visibility of half a mile or less - particularly in Devils Lake basin and northern Red River Valley. These locations are liable to experience near blizzard conditions the rest of the afternoon into early evening.

Latest guidance continues to indicate majority of snow accumulation comes into the Red River Valley and Minnesota between 2-3 inches between 6 PM and 6 AM, backed by the passage of greatest vorticity advection aloft associated with the upper wave. This will be important as there is little evidence to suggest there is sufficiently available snow to blow around outside of actively falling snow. In fact, there is blowing dust being reported and observed within the Red River Valley today.

A brief lull in gusty winds is anticipated with gusty southerly winds easing some this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will sweep through the region tonight, shifting winds northwesterly, increasing to around 20-30 mph. With a freshly deposited 1-3 inches of snow blow around, blowing snow is expected to ensue Sunday. Currently forecast temperatures and winds not exceeding 30 mph would limit the potential for blizzard conditions, and keep impacts more in the advisory-level. This is without any actively falling snow, which continues to remain question (see next paragraph for more on this).

Within the weak to at times moderate cold air advection regime trailing the cold front, there is a signal for horizontal convective rolls (HCRs) to develop as lapse rates attempt to steepen in the shallow boundary layer. Just behind the front tonight, lapse rates may struggle to steepen sufficiently to really promote convection, but still thinking there will be some semblance of HCRs, perhaps amid light falling snow in between with lingering synoptic lift and saturation aloft.

Getting into the daytime Sunday, saturation aloft is expected to ease, allowing sunshine to peak through during the day Sunday. This may promote reinvorgation of boundary layer convection, and as such the HCR process. This may continue through the day Sunday.

At this time, overall moisture to help generate snow within HCRs is lacking; however, injecting blowing snow into these convective rolls could help either generate snow within the roll features themselves, and/or help converge blowing snow into thin ribbons of significantly reduced visibility. Should this occur, we can expect another day of potentially highly variable conditions with respect to reduced visibility from blowing snow. Significantly reduced visibility to a quarter mile is possible in this scenario within these roll features (and relatively more likely to occur in open country).

Ultimately, the presence of these features would promote scattered snow showers. One area that is of particular interest during the day Sunday is the eastern Red River Valley. This is where guidance suggests locally tightened pressure gradient along with strong pressure rises. This coupled with weak cold air advection and increased flow aloft could help sustain winds in the 25-30 mph range. Should this occur, with blowable snowpack, and HCRs lingering around the region, blizzard conditions may ensue in open country - even with temperatures relatively warmer in the teens above zero. Even if mature HCRs are not present, near blizzard conditions would ensue (and is the most likely outcome).

With the potential this scenario in the eastern Red River Valley during the day Sunday, there is a 20% chance for warning- level impacts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 514 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Initial snowfall and low level wind shear will continue to work its way eastward this evening, reducing visibilities and ceilings to MVFR and briefly IFR/LIFR. Snow should diminish with wind shear this evening, but low ceilings will stick around until the end of the TAF period. A surface front will push through the region overnight, changing wind direction to northwesterly for most TAF sites by mid-morning. Blowing snow is likely to accompany this but to what degree depends on coverage of snow showers tomorrow morning and how much blowable snow we have. At this time, the probability for blizzard conditions and predominant VLIFR conditions is 20% and mainly at GFK and FAR. The most likely outcome at this time is predominant MVFR to IFR visibilities with occasional reductions to LIFR/VLIFR depending on if snow showers are occurring. This should gradually taper through the afternoon as wind intensity decreases.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ001>005- 007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030.