textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread frost and areas of freezing temperatures are forecast tonight into early Friday morning.

..Synopsis

Upper trough within Canada is spreading its influence over our region, with a feed of relatively dry, continental air mass infiltrating into the region. Surface high pressure settles into our area amid this dry, cooler air mass. With clear skies and predominately calm winds, ideal radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to dip into the mid 30s to upper 20s tonight/Friday morning. This will result in widespread frost and areas of freezing temperatures. Mid level clouds are forecast to spread into our area from the west, but expected to occur near sunrise still allowing for frost/freeze. Urban landscapes may not see frost/freezing temperatures due to locally warmer temperatures from urban heat island effects.

Additional chances for frost exist this weekend into next week, particularly Sunday night into Monday morning.

The upper pattern remains in a quasi-zonal flow through the weekend, with a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move through Friday night into Saturday. This will provide forcing for ascent bringing a medium chance for rain showers. This wave is likely to be devoid of overall moisture content, thus rain amounts are anticipated to be rather low - less than quarter of an inch. Rain may come in two bouts - the first Friday night associated with warm air advection and low level frontogenesis, with the second bout more during the day Saturday associated with the passage of the mid level wave and associated cold front.

Ensemble guidance suggests in transient shortwave ridging early next week, although the influence of this remains in question. There could be a brief trend in temperatures toward slightly above average temperatures; otherwise, temperatures are forecast to remain near average.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

High confidence in VFR throughout the TAF period. There is a very low chance for patchy fog to develop early Friday morning. At this time it is highly unlikely to impact any terminals. Otherwise a steady southerly wind will develop late Friday morning into the afternoon. At this time, sustained winds should remain under 12 knots and gusts are not forecasted. Winds will decrease after sunset on Friday. There is a very low chance fora few sprinkles after sunset Friday, but no aviation impacts are anticipated at this time.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Friday for NDZ008-014-016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052-053. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-015-054. MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001>004-007-017- 024-027>032-040. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Friday for MNZ005-006-008-009- 013>016-022-023.