textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday night, for hazard large hail and damaging winds.

- There is a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail, with the potential for a few tornadoes.

..Severe Weather Risk Monday

Initially there is a lower risk for ongoing strong/marginally severe storms early Monday morning, though activity may remain highly elevated and marginal CAPE/shear lowers confidence in impacts initially. The main result of any ongoing convection would be what lingering impact mid level clouds have on convective evolution Monday afternoon/evening. Better forcing with the main wave favors the north while the cold front passing northwest to southeast places the region of better BL moisture pooling/instability in the warm sector to our south-southeast. Cloud cover could delay initiation in the region with more robust instability and shear ahead of the front where capping may already be playing a role in limiting local initiation. This is even more accounting for the signal for increasing smoke aloft from the Pacific NW arriving with the trough. The presence of broader forcing/convergence and a window where good instability and strong shear will be present at least creates a scenario for supercells or more organized severe clusters, so this will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Smoke remains mainly aloft through the TAF period so keeping the FEW250 in there at all sites to account for this. Main impact to operations through the period will be winds. Gusts near 30kts expected for GFK, FAR, and DVL Sunday afternoon. TVF looks to be more in the mid 20s but cant rule out a stray gust over 30 and BJI looks to peak between 20-25kts. Confidence in 30+ kts is highest at GFK and about a 60% chance at FAR and DVL with all other sites less than a 30% chance.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.