textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Period of rain late today into Tuesday morning southeast half of North Dakota into Minnesota. Overall forecast rainfall amounts have been lowered.

- Mix with or change to wet snow overnight parts of the area east and west of the valley, but light precipitation rates and warm ground inhibit much accumulation.

- Seasonable high temperatures in the 40s and 50s through early next week, with slightly above average highs by late week.

UPDATE

Issued at 541 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The rainfall from earlier in the night has indeed dissipated over far southeast ND and southern parts of west central MN. This was as forecast. Next wave to generate rain in central SD with a mix of rain/snow in north central SD into parts of southern ND east of Bismarck as we get into late afternoon and evening. This batch of rain does spread farther north than the one Sunday but overall precipitation amounts are less than it was showing 24-48 hours ago as the 1+ inch amounts of rain are more from east central SD into central MN. Soundings and 925 mb temp progs show a favored area of where below 0C 925 mb temps and precipitation overlap in an area from in between Mobridge and Aberdeen SD into North Dakota in between Bismarck and Jamestown into tonight. Also a smaller area where mix may occur is north central MN. But in the north central into south central ND area probs for 1 inch of snow remain greater than 50 pct particularly in that area near Eureka SD to near Wishek, Ashley to west of Edgeley ND. Also compared to past forecasts, it does look like the rain area will exit the forecast area sooner with pops for rain moving out of eastern fcst area midday Tuesday.

UPDATE Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Rain can be noted across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota on radar however dry air is still evident and preventing much of it from reaching the ground currently. Soundings continue to support a gradual moistening trend in the low levels allowing for perhaps a couple hundredths to a tenth of an inch to fall over the next several hours before forcing wanes by sunrise.

..Rain Monday into Tuesday

A stronger mid level wave organizes into a hybrid type system Monday with large scale ascent increasing across our CWA south to north late Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Initially drier air in northeast BL flow may delay measurable rainfall, however the surge of deeper moisture with WAA and at least some 700MB deformation banding will help saturate the low levels and periods of moderate (locally heavy) rainfall would be expected. As is usually the case with dominant WAA patterns, stronger areas of frontogenesis will tend to be more transient making coverage of higher totals 1"+ harder to anticipate. Better coverage of rain will tend to initially be along and south of US Highway 2, though the track of the mid/upper low will eventually allow rain to overspread northwest/north central MN. High 24hr probabilities (60-80%) for 0.25" or more rainfall are shown by NBM across southeast ND and west central MN, with a 30-50% chance in similar areas for greater than 1" of rainfall.

Regarding snowfall: As with previous rounds of guidance the temperature profiles may at times be cold enough to support a mix or change over to snow, particularly in higher terrain areas west of the Red River Valley late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. However, as HREF/REFS/NBM all show a very weak signal, with lighter rates the chance for any snow to accumulate will be diminished due to warmer ground temperatures. Still, a few novelty snowflakes or a light dusting on grassy/elevated surfaces may occur (best chance west of the Red River Valley (no impacts).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 724 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Increase in high clouds today...scattered coverage north half this morning. Will look for the rain to spread north this evening and tonight and as it does likely an area of low level saturation and low cloud formation with ceilings dropping below 1k ft agl overnight in the rain area. Not DVL though as they will remain in the drier airmass. Winds today starting out near calm then mostly easterly under 10 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.