textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- System #1 winter impacts 7 pm Wednesday to 7 am Friday. The degree of snowfall, amounts, temperatures all play a role in impacts. Looks like a bit of NW trend in track of upper low and there is a 50 percent chance for advisory impacts.

- System #2 winter impacts 7 am Friday to 7 pm Saturday. A bit stronger upper low with this system and thus depending on track a tad higher risk for advisory and even warning impacts due to snowfall. Chance for advisory impacts 70 percent and chance for warning imapcts 20 percent.

UPDATE

Issued at 447 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Dropped the winter weather advisory for NW MN. Freezing rain risk has lowered as precipitation moving thru is light rain or light snow. Road temps are above 32F and sfc temps 31-34. Thus impacts are not anticipated. Far north Baudette, Roseau area snow will end and colder road temps (30-31) so some slushy areas possible but new snow amounts less than 1 inch.

Two systems coming up...7 pm Wed to 7 am Friday and 7 am Friday to 7 pm Saturday. Trends have been for a bit of a northwest track with upper lows for both systems and thus higher chance for advisory impacts and even possible warning impacts for some areas for the Fri-Sat system. Updated key messages for both systems and to rise percentage for advisory and/or warning impacts.

UPDATE Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

We're continuing to monitor upstream observations of the precipitation moving in. As of yet, saturation has been hard to come by based on observations, but webcams do confirm rain ongoing in central North Dakota. We expect this to continue eastward through the overnight period with an eventual changeover to freezing rain and snow as it approaches northwest Minnesota. Where this occurs carries low predictability but the impacts should remain relatively minor as accumulations will remain light. Any snowfall accumulations should also be kept to a minimum as well.

..Precipitation chances late week and into the weekend

There is decent agreement with the ensemble members in southwesterly flow with a lead shortwave moving through late week, then the main trough Friday into Saturday. Cluster analysis has some very minor differences in timing and amplification of the trough, but overall have a pretty wet signal. The main question will be the exact track and how cold temperatures will be. Probabilities of over 2 inches of snow are 50 to 60 percent in some areas, so at least advisory level impacts look pretty good but pWSSI only has around 10 percent chance for warning level snow. Will continue to monitor closely as any shift in the track of the system will bring a change to what we expect.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

MVFR ceilings, with patches of IFR, will continue pushing eastward overnight. A band of rain is approaching from the west and may impact FAR this evening with some snowflakes mixing in. As we get towards the 8-12z timeframe, TVF and BJI may experience rain and snow, with a chance for freezing rain at BJI as well. Confidence is very low in if precipitation makes it there and what type of precipitation will be, hence the PROB30 groups covering the most likely areas. MVFR ceilings will prevail for the remainder of the morning hours with gradual improvements from west to east through the afternoon. Winds will increase from the north with gusts approaching 25-30 knots, particularly at GFK and FAR. Winds will diminish after sunset towards the end of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.