textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Medium chance for soaking rainfall far southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota. Chance for 1 inch or more of rain around 30 percent.
..Rain chances Friday
Guidance continues to keep the lion's share of soaking rainfall south of our area Friday. There is still a subset of guidance that eeks the northern fringes of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall into locations near the SD border/tri-state area into west-central MN. Should this occur, rainfall totals may reach into the 0.8-1.5 inch range. There is around a 30% chance for this to occur. Otherwise, most likely amounts are expected to remain less than 0.5 inches. The chance for 3 or more inches remains very low/nill at this time.
Timing for rainfall in southeast ND into west-central MN begins Friday morning around sunrise, lingering through early to mid afternoon.
A separate area of showers are expected to develop in portions of north-central ND into SK/MB Friday. This could spread into northeast ND and the far northern Red River Valley. Rain amounts will be light, only up to a few hundredths, if this occurs.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
MVFR stratocumulus that had been lingering over parts of northwest MN and far northeast ND has been actively clearing/dissipating with sunset approaching/loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN through the early overnight. There is still a low chance for radiational fog development over parts of north central ND where winds are more likely to remain calm. However, guidance continues to back off on coverage/signal and chances are too low to include at KBJI at this time.
A low pressure system building into the region from the southwest of our region will result in winds shifting to the southeast and increasing to around 11-15kt across the region Friday. This will also bring showers/isolated thunderstorm activity to far southeast ND and west central MN (chances under 30% at KFAR and KBJI). The increase in low level moisture will result in MVFR stratus spreading north, however this is less likely to make it much farther than KFAR/BJI and KGFK/KDVL/KTVF are more likely to remain VFR Friday based on the current favored track/low level moisture axis.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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