textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance for fire weather impacts Friday into this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 659 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Updated 12z TAF aviation discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Today starts a quiet weather weather wise that will last thru the end of the week at a minimum. One 500 mb wave moving north- northeast thru Thunder Bay Ontario region taking the rain with it. Otherwise behind it is a broad upper trough over the Canadian prariries, which will remain in place thru Thursday keeping temperatures on the cool side of normal and also keep a layer of moisture at 850-700 mb layer. Patches of clouds anticipated the next few days....with sunshine during the day leading to high based CU midday and aftn as convective temps are low. For today convective temps are mid 40s and fcst highs upper 40s. Fire weather concerns are not anticipated thru Thursday...but may show up this Friday into the weekend if warm enough temps to drop RH.

UPDATE Issued at 712 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Clearing of lower clouds allowed for a brief window before sunset for a few gusts over 40 mph in the northern Red River Valley. The general trend has been for winds to crease well below advisory criteria. As winds aloft are already beginning to weaken from the northwest to the south and low levels continue to decouple after sunset, the threat for gusts 45mph+ are greatly diminished. The wind advisory was allowed to expire as scheduled.

..Synopsis

The current shortwave bringing our rain will work off to the northeast over the next 24 hours with conditions drying out this afternoon across eastern North Dakota and by midnight for the Minnesota counties. In other news moderate pressure rises and a tightened PGF on the northwest side of the low will contribute to increased winds across the Valley and southeast North Dakota this afternoon (Wind Advisory in effect until 7pm) with gusts up to 45 mph. Beyond today zonal flow tomorrow becomes northwest by Wednesday evening with this lasting through the workweek as highs stay 45-55 degrees through Thursday. Warming up Friday onwards with highs in the 60s for most areas as thermal riding creeps overhead. Various low amplitude shortwaves will move through the northwest flow over the next week but our confidence in timing/location of a wetting (>0.10") rain is low.

- Today

Drying profiles along and north of HWY 2 are leading to diminishing radar returns with a surge of moisture in west central Minnesota leading to increasing coverage of showers with another tenth to quarter inch through midnight from Fargo to Baudette and points south bringing events totals widely above 1" in areas that currently fall into "abnormally dry" on the drought monitor classification. Definitely a rain that falls into the classic midwest "we needed this" category. Winds as stated above will be dying off around sunset tonight with a few gusts of 40-45 mph still expected, though looking to be less widespread than previously thought given a southern MN low around 995mb rather than 990mb as forecasted yesterday resulting in a weaker surface PGF.

- Rest of the week

Zonal flow tomorrow will usher in much clearer skies, though it will also bring below average temps which stay in place through the workweek. Average highs for the period are around 60 so about 5-10 degrees below average for most would be the expectation. As we near the weekend thermal ridging finally moves east off the rockies bring a slightly warmer mid level airmass and pushing highs into the upper 50s and 60s. During this time ensemble clusters show a number of low amplitude shortwaves that could bring some more showers but any given cluster never shows a higher than 30% chance for a tenth of an inch or more. This slightly raises confidence in a mostly inactive period but things are certain to change as is the norm in the world of weather. The HDWI also fails to ever get above the 75th percentile despite daily MinRH of 30 to 40 percent. Would be surprised at the very least if there isnt a day of elevated fire weather concerns over the next seven days... just not sure where or when.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 659 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Scattered mid and high clouds to start today with northwest wind 5-10 kts. Expect winds to increase a bit into the 10-20 kt range from late morning thru late afternoon. I kept idea of a BKN CU deck (around 6000 ft agl) developing midday and aftn, but it may well be SCT.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.