textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple chances for wintry weather over the next week but predictability and confidence remain low beyond Friday.

- Temperatures warming to above normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 555 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Some light radar returns across portions of our far northern counties into the Red Lakes, but not much evidence still of anything reaching the ground. Will keep POPs going, but impacts look pretty minimal.

..Synopsis

A couple weak clippers look to move through the N/NW flow tonight and tomorrow night with dry air on the western fringes leading to the potential for a wintry mix both nights across northwest Minnesota. NW flow aloft then begins to become more zonal as a cutoff low undercuts the western ridging with hybrid low type action becoming more favored over the weekend into early next week. There are some ensemble members that transition to a more truly SW regime by mid next week introducing the potential for Colorado low type action. However, that does still seem to be the outlier scenario when looking at the synoptic evolution but an impactful one if it does play out.

- Tonight

A weak clipper will work through the north and east this evening with radar returns already becoming apparent across northeast North Dakota as of 1pm though still fighting some dry air as we cant find any evidence of things reaching the ground just yet. Still expecting some light snow across the far east from Lake of the Woods to Bemidji with a few tenths of snow possible. Further west into the Red River Valley dry air in the DGZ may favor a wintry mix tonight and some freezing drizzle but confidence is extremely low. Probs for any icing remain below 20% but should any occur travel could become slick quickly.

- Thursday night

A near identical system to that of tonight but slightly further west with a wintry mix from Roseau to Bemidji and nothing further west. Confidence in precip types remains low with some light snow/drizzle possible but this will depend on how much dry air is introduced along the western edge of the system. Overall potential for QPF > 0.01" from either system is about 40% but only 20% for any freezing drizzle. Wont rule icing out as it likely will happen somewhere given the modeled soundings but aside from icing being more likely along the western fringes of the precip and snow further east confidence is low in where any freezing drizzle occurs.

- Long term

Ensembles then widely support wave action through the weekend across the top of the ridging with flow then supporting deeper troughing emanating out the west by mid next week. Precip is likely to be widespread but ensembles have a wide range of solutions on amounts both liquid and frozen, greatly decreasing confidence in how things unfold. What seems higher confidence at this time is generally warmer than average temperatures with daily highs in the 20s and 30s most days as westerly flow in the low to mid levels brings a warmer airmass into place. This likely introduces increased chances for more mixed phase precip (hence the lower confidence this weekend and beyond). Hopefully as the cutoff low that is forecast to undercut the western ridge moves onshore and can be sampled by some of the CA/AZ upper air sites models can get a better grasp on how the weekend and beyond is likely to play out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 555 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Ceilings range from VFR to IFR with the majority of airports at MVFR. The lower ceilings will continue through the first part of the evening, with some improvement later in the evening into the overnight although confidence is not high on exactly when. All sites except KBJI look to be VFR with high cloud cover by tomorrow morning. Winds around 15 kts from the south to southwest will shift around to the northwest, then back southwest for the ND airports by the end of the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.