textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures through Thursday.

..Synopsis

Surface cold front/wind shift has moved through most of the CWA, and high pressure should move in behind it for tonight. With fairly light winds and only a few cirrus clouds, radiational cooling will be good, with the northern counties dropping into the mid 30s and a 50 percent chance for below 32 degrees around Towner county. However, temps in that area have already dipped into the upper 20s, so no freeze headlines are needed at this point. Temps will recover quickly as we head into the work week and upper ridging builds into the Plains and Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave moving over the top of the ridge through Canada will again bring a weak frontal boundary/wind shift through on Wednesday, but not much impact expected. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages throughout the period with the ECMWF EFI showing only more of a warm signal as we head into next weekend and flow turns southwesterly.

Pattern starts to turn more active towards the end of the work week as flow becomes more southwesterly and a lead shortwave and warm air advection come into the region. Exact timing of the upper trough coming out into the Plains is all over the place with several clusters keeping the main troughing off to our west while others bring lower heights into the upper midwest/Great Lakes. The ensembles do have a signal for at least some precipitation and warmer than average temperatures. The ECMWF EFI even has some unusual for the season CAPE in portions of our area. Thus, a few rumbles of thunder seem more likely during this active pattern than any snow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, due to a very dry air mass in place. Surface high pressure building into the region will result in a period of light winds (5kt or less). Despite good radiational conditions, the very dry air in place will limit the potential for any fog development through sunrise Monday. At most a few patches of shallow ground fog may develop (very low chances for impacts at TAF sites). Winds eventually become east to southeast as surface low gradually builds to the west of the region, but gradient and winds aloft remain weak and winds should remain 10kt or less Monday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.