textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Above average temperatures continue through early next week. This will continue to erode the snowpack, although no hydrological impacts are anticipated at this time.
- The next chance for a more active precipitation pattern will be mid to late next week, but confidence in the details is low.
..More active pattern next week
There is decent agreement on the upper flow becoming more southwesterly by next week, although differences in the details. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS runs bring out a lead shortwave on Tuesday but differ on how they take it out of the region on Wednesday. An entire cluster of 25 percent of the grand ensemble members have upper ridging holding in place over the Plains for Tuesday/Wednesday while the main trough is still out over the west coast. Even if there was agreement on timing, the recent and continued warmer than average temps will make precip type a headache to figure out. There is the possibility of both rain and snow, and the ECMWF ensemble even shows some chances for sleet or freezing rain at some of the more northern locations. With the high levels of uncertainty, will hold off on any messaging for the middle of next week for the moment, but keep a close eye on trends.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 503 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Fog is likely to redevelop again this evening, although how widespread and how severe it is is highly uncertain and has a low predictability. Expect at least MVFR visibilities at DVL/GFK/FAR overnight with the potential for IFR/LIFR/VLIFR between 06z-15z. Stratus should continue to linger through the evening and depending on the development of fog, expand/contract overnight with the potential for IFR/LIFR ceilings. Again, predictability for this is low.
All of this should improve once more as the sun rises tomorrow morning, although stratus may linger through the late morning into early afternoon hours. Winds will be a limited impact as the magnitudes should remain below 15 knots sustained.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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