textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop over parts of the region through July 4th. Some storms could be strong to severe, but threats will generally be limited to hail to quarter size and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

UPDATE

Issued at 823 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The sun setting resulting in lower levels stabilizing, and organized forcing remaining west and south of our region has pushed the organized severe threat outside of our CWA. Elevated instabilty will remain in place however and the activity upstream in Saskatchewan/northeast Montana is shown by the HRRR to possibly hold together and reach our northwest CWA after 10Z Friday morning (though it would be weakening if it did). The majority of other earlier CAMs still had this falling apart or just transitioning to elevated showers, so while it will be something to watch Friday morning, the severe threat this evening has ended.

..4TH OF JULY FORECAST

Instability remains across the region for the 4th of July, but the upper flow pattern again is very weak. Due to the ongoing festivities and outdoor activities for the 4th, we do want to note that there is the potential for heavy rainfall/showers and thunderstorms. However, there is very high uncertainty in the scope of showers and thunderstorms as this will largely depend on antecedent convection dropping outflow boundaries/convergent zones. With the lack of flow aloft as well, storms may be stationary in some locations, so flash flooding couldn't be ruled out. Overall this carries very low predictability. At a minimum, expect a 60% chance of showers/storms by the afternoon across the entire area, although the spatial extent of storms should remain scattered. Severe storm potential is very low thanks to very weak shear.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across most of eastern ND and northwest MN. MVFR ceilings are expected in the KDVL region Friday morning, and brief/scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms may move into northeast ND during the 10-15Z period. Due to weak surface gradient and weak winds aloft. East-northeast winds should remain light (under 12kt) for most locations through the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.