textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will run near normal through the weekend before warming up early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Upper ridging starts to nudge into the Western Plains tonight, arriving fully over the CWA by Saturday. Surface high pressure tonight will bring light winds and good radiational cooling, but think there will be more cloud cover than the model blends show. Have temps bottoming out in the teens still as there should be a sharp drop after sunset before clouds fill back in. Temps tomorrow will be similar today and near seasonal averages. Upper ridging will continue through the weekend and into early next week, with pretty good agreement from the ensemble members on temps warming back up above normal. Highs look to be back up into the 50s by Monday.

Still some variation in the details with how the upper ridge breaks down and split flow trough comes into the Plains. Some of the clusters track the low along the Canadian border, while other solutions start the system out over the Central Plains. Probabilities of measurable precipitation are decent, around 40 percent, so at least some areas will get some moisture. With the ECMWF EFI still showing a signal for warmth, most likely form of precipitation will be rain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1124 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions are in place across eastern ND and northwest MN and should prevail at least through 09Z, with lower confidence in in the 09-14Z period as radiational fog and stratus may develop but with a trend towards shallower/very localized impacts. This lowers the chances at any one TAF site and consensus for guidance is to hold prevailing conditions VFR. Even if fog/stratus were to develop the pattern should support clearing trends with daytime mixing in the 14-16Z period Friday morning.

Surface high pressure is in place and winds are light and may be calm or variable less than 5kt tonight before shifting to the southeast Friday as low pressure builds to the west.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.

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