textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief period of mostly dry conditions before daily chances for showers and storms starting Thursday into the Fourth of July weekend.

..Synopsis

Well established upper low lingers in central MB, with subsident southwesterly flow over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Much drier air mass at the surface compared to yesterday will keep conditions mostly dry (save some light showers in northeast ND and northwest MN closer to the upper low) today and Wednesday. Breezy winds will also be present, along with temperatures near average in the 70s and 80s.

Ensemble guidance doesn't migrate the MB upper low eastward until around Thursday. This is when ensemble guidance strongly suggests one or more low amplitude shortwave trough/s move out of the Rockies into the Northern Plains amid broad upper troughing/southwesterly flow. This will allow for gradual return of low level moisture back into the Dakotas, leading to medium to high chance for showers and storms late Thursday. At this time, there is a low chance for storms to be strong to severe, particularly if they organize and move eastward out of central Dakotas; however, predictability is low in exactly how much moisture, instability, and wind shear will be available to sustain organized convection as it enters into eastern ND and northwest/west-central MN.

Ensemble guidance agrees in generally meager southwesterly flow aloft late this week turning more zonal by the end of the weekend as upper ridging attempts to establish itself in the Great Basin/Southwest. This will continue daily chances for showers and storms into the Fourth of July holiday weekend as moisture and warmer temperatures gradually increase into our area. There continues to be a chance that some storms during this period could be strong to severe, although a lack of more robust instability and wind shear limits the upper end of potential severe. Of course, important mesoscale features and subsequently uncertain convective evolution markedly lowers predictability when assessing potential hazards at this time.

Previous messaging of potential heat impacts during the Fourth of July has trended downward. However, there is still a chance for minor heat-related impacts driven by a chance for temperatures into the 90s and dew points into the mid 60s to perhaps 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN. Elevated light showers or weakening thunderstorms may move into far southeast ND and west central MN in the 10-15Z period Wednesday morning, however chances at TAF sites are all under 20%. South to southwest winds 10kt or less should increase above 12kt by late morning during daytime heating as low pressure lingers over southern Manitoba, decreasing with standard diurnal timing in the early evening. Wind gusts are not expected to reach 30kt during the afternoon Wednesday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.