textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of rain are expected to overspread the region Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

- Seasonable high temperatures in the 40s and 50s through early next week, with slightly above average highs by late week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Rain can be noted across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota on radar however dry air is still evident and preventing much of it from reaching the ground currently. Soundings continue to support a gradual moistening trend in the low levels allowing for perhaps a couple hundredths to a tenth of an inch to fall over the next several hours before forcing wanes by sunrise.

..Rain Monday into Tuesday

A stronger mid level wave organizes into a hybrid type system Monday with large scale ascent increasing across our CWA south to north late Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Initially drier air in northeast BL flow may delay measurable rainfall, however the surge of deeper moisture with WAA and at least some 700MB deformation banding will help saturate the low levels and periods of moderate (locally heavy) rainfall would be expected. As is usually the case with dominant WAA patterns, stronger areas of frontogenesis will tend to be more transient making coverage of higher totals 1"+ harder to anticipate. Better coverage of rain will tend to initially be along and south of US Highway 2, though the track of the mid/upper low will eventually allow rain to overspread northwest/north central MN. High 24hr probabilities (60-80%) for 0.25" or more rainfall are shown by NBM across southeast ND and west central MN, with a 30-50% chance in similar areas for greater than 1" of rainfall.

Regarding snowfall: As with previous rounds of guidance the temperature profiles may at times be cold enough to support a mix or change over to snow, particularly in higher terrain areas west of the Red River Valley late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. However, as HREF/REFS/NBM all show a very weak signal, with lighter rates the chance for any snow to accumulate will be diminished due to warmer ground temperatures. Still, a few novelty snowflakes or a light dusting on grassy/elevated surfaces may occur (best chance west of the Red River Valley (no impacts).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR through this evening with FAR likely falling into MVFR CIGS and VIS by the tail end of the period as rain pushes in from the south. BJI will also see falling CIGS but likely remain VFR through the end of the TAF period and fall into MVFR shortly thereafter. Winds remaining light at or under 10 kts through the day with a turn to the northeast/east. Rain will be much more widespread Tuesday with widespread MVFR to IFR by Tuesday morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.