textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered snow showers, strong north-northwest winds and blowing snow will result in widespread advisory impacts after midnight thru Friday. 30 percent chance of warning impacts due to blowing snow.

- Wind chill values fall into the range of -40 to -30 degrees Saturday and Sunday mornings.

UPDATE

Issued at 549 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Light snow in NW Ontario and this looks headed into northeast MN this morning. Kept low pop around Lake of the Woods for the southwest edge of this. Overall though skies have cleared out in many areas...some high clouds mixed with stratocu far northwest MN into S Manitoba and far northeast ND. Sky cover from models doing a rather poor job so manually edited. HRRR precip fcsts from the overnight too have been rather poor, too wet in generating precip in NW MN.

..Main winter impacts 06z Fri to 21z Fri

Sfc low is well to our east as it tracks southeast. Arctic cold front remains well identified with isobars in model sfc fcsts with front along Intl border at 06z and then rapidly moving south thru 12z. It is with this front and about 6 hours behind it a period of 40-45 kts at 925 mb is centered over the RRV. Wouldnt be suprised to see a convective snow band with the front overnight. So a period of intense snow and gusty winds with the front may be in the cards, but how long will the impacts from this last. 1/4SM lasting 3 hours or is it 1/4SM lasting half hour and then mostly 1/2 to 1SM. This is mostly within the valley with this higher impact period after 06z into Friday AM. Friday AM commute likely to be impacted by this, esp in the open country.

After the initial front surge, scattered shower showers along with gusty winds. The intensity of these snow showers will vary greatly and their interactions with the winds in determining the coverage of low visibilities will be key.

Windy conditions into Friday night, though not as strong, but still chances for snow showers. Gusty winds into parts of Saturday....but gradually diminishing.

NBM may not be handling clipper for Sunday well and too low on QPF. That can be addressed later. But would appear at least a decent shot of snow early Sunday with this wave for NE ND and thru northern MN.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 549 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Stratocu back into BJI area in MVFR range and this is likely to conitnue for a time this morning and may last most of the day. Otherwise VFR is anticipated today thru evening. South winds 20 kts in the RRV to start today with low level wind shear present. Gusty winds from the west develop in western ND and spread east this aftn/eve. Arctic front is poised to be near the Canadian border at 06z Fri and this will drop south quickly with likely snow shower band, and increase in winds and lower vsby. Timing of that at individual TAF sites and especially the impacts in regards to vsby is of course uncertain, but felt confident enough to include the idea of that in the 12z TAFs for the late periods.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.