textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions all of eastern North Dakota and northwest and west central Minnesota today with lowest RH values 20 to 28 percent and fuels remain dry.

- Soaking rain a possibility in many areas late Sunday thru Monday. 48 hour probability of 1 inch of more of rain is greater than 50 percent southeast North Dakota into much of Minnesota.

..Synopsis

Currently a surface low pressure system is sitting on the North Dakota and Canadian Border. Two cold fronts are extending off it, one moving east through the Red River Valley, and the other one surging through western and central ND. Aloft the low is tilted to the west over the colder air. Winds will continue to increase this afternoon and into the overnight, so the fire weather concerns remain across the forecast area. Current relative humidities are around 30 percent, with winds now gusting near 30mph. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7pm. Winds behind the first cold front are turning to the west, while winds ahead of the front are from the south. The Wind Advisory also remains in effect until 9pm with diurnal heating dying and the cold front passing.

Along this cold front there still remains a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this evening in northwestern and north central MN. Expected hazards are 1 inch hail and 60mph winds. With the mean wind mostly parallel with the cold front, the expected storm mode will mostly be linear if storms get going. CAPE values will only be around 700 J/kg, with bulk shear around 40kts. Most of the CAMs have the line of storms firing just west of Bemidji sometime between 3pm and 5pm, then moving east with the front.

This weekend will be much cooler with on and off rain. The upper level low is forecast to just sit and spin in southern Canada through Monday morning. This will keeps us in the active cyclonic flow, along with cooler temperatures being pulled in from Canada. Expect daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s with breezy winds. Most of the weekend will include at least a slight (20 percent) chance of rain. Sunday a large trough digs south through the West Coast, leading to southwest flow over the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley. This will also form a Colorado Low that will bring widespread rain to the area. Most model outcomes have the timing being across ND and MN Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.

Looking at next week, the earlier low pressure system could linger in central Canada, possibly leading to more cyclonic flow, and cooler temperatures. A shortwave and collocated cold front could spin off of the low mid week, and move in from the north. This could create more chances of rain and breezy winds.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions with some high clouds moving through the Red River Valley. Stratocu field over north central ND that is starting to move towards KDVL is mostly in the 3000-5000 ft range although a few spots are down below 3000. Will keep KDVL VFR for now. West to northwest winds gusting up to 30 kts will stay mostly over the Devils Lake Basin and not impact sites further east, but gusts around 20 kts will be possible. Winds will drop down below 10 kts and wobble around a bit in direction overnight, before picking up out of the southwest with gusts to around 20 kts by the end of the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.