textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

..Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening as a moderately strong shortwave pushes across the area. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will be in place during peak heating, with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Modeled surface CAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg across various ensembles and deterministic NAM/NAM Nest. Low to mid level shear is marginal, especially further ahead of the cold front. Hodographs, however, are relatively straight and have a degree of consistency in model soundings. If storms are able to form, there should be just enough shear to allow a mention of supercells, with a chance for splitting supercells or hybrid clusters. In a higher impact scenario, supercells form, bringing potential hazards including wind gusts upwards of 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. If atmospheric support shifts more towards clusters, the potential hazards could include wind gusts upwards of 70 mph and hail up to the size of ping pong balls. Alternatively, in a lower end scenario, storms form later in the evening and severe storms become less likely, but could still support elevated hail producing storms during the late evening and overnight.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Cirrus moving in from the west, with all sites remaining VFR throughout the period. Winds will become light and variable, and can't completely rule out some patchy ground fog. However, not a very strong signal and will not include in the TAFs. Winds will begin to increase out of the southeast for the ND airports during the day tomorrow.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.