textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest and west central Minnesota due to low humidity and gusty winds.

- Wind sustained 25-35 mph gusts 45 mph this spreading into Devils Lake and Valley City areas this afternoon.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms mid to late this afternoong in portions of northwest and west central Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 658 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A narrow line of t-storms have formed out of showers earlier tracking quickly northeast in between Park Rapids and Detroit Lakes south to Perham and Ottertail. Pea hail reported near Richville.

UPDATE Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Coordination of forecast this early Thursday yielded a red flag warning for this afternoon for portions of eastern ND and into northwest and west central MN. Not including Devils Lake as arrival of colder air is soon, and not including Baudette Bemidji to Wadena due to higher RH thru the day.

Focus of the day will be lingering showers and a few storms moving north-northeast early this morning thru the RRV and then watching to see advance of cold front and ahead of that a region of lowering dew pts and clearing. As this moves into eastern ND and the RRV expect a 3-5 period of RH vaules in the low to mid 20s percent with winds 20-30 mph and gusts over 35 mph spreading in. Highest wind gusts and speeds to be found western fcst area as winds around the upper low/sfc low in far SE SK/SW MB move into central ND by early aftn and into our western areas (DVL- Valley City) mid to late afternoon. These areas have best chance of seeing wind gusts 45 mph or higher and/or sustatined winds over 30 mph.

It will be race to see how fast the drier airmass gets east into Minnesota vs the development of any t-storms mid afternoon along a cold front that will be moving in. Drier air at the sfc may be ahead of the actual front and the focus of any storm development may be along this initial dry push where winds go from south to southwest. Looks like a rather brief period though in the far east for any t-storm development 20-23z....and severe parameters are so-so at best with MUCAPE values 1000-1500 in a narrow axis up thru Bemidji 21z-22z period before it shifts east. Looking at sounding, would think any severe risk is mainly wind driven, as pretty warm aloft and do think risk of any brief tornado is no longer worth mentioning.

..Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms

Late this afternoon into evening, there is a medium chance for thunderstorms within eastern ND, generally between 7pm to Midnight. These storms may be capable of bringing gusty winds to 60 mph with the help of a very well mixed boundary layer and strong winds in the low to mid portion of the cloud bearing layer. A few instances of small hail up to 1 inch may also accompany these storms.

Getting into Thursday, a 'dryline-like' frontal feature pushes through the area during the day across the region. By peak daytime heating, the front is forecast to be within Minnesota. Forcing for ascent along the front may be enough to spark isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon within portions of Minnesota, more likely to be east of the Highway 59 corridor. Sufficient shear and instability will allow for potential of hail to 1 inch and gusty winds to 60 mph. There is also still potential for a brief tornado as low level moisture/instability as well as favorable shear for low level rotation and venting aloft remains advertised by a subset of CAMs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 658 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions today sky cover and cloud height wise. Early AM shower and t-storm into BJI/PKD areas thru 14z. Otherwise main story is wind as south winds are gusty, then turn southwest and then west mid to late aftn in E ND. Gusts this aftn in E ND esp DVL over 35 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ014-015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054. MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031- 040.