textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds decreasing after sunset with the wind advisory set to expire at 7pm.

- There is a medium chance for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern North Dakota, and northwest and west central Minnesota.

..Severe Risk Friday Afternoon and Evening

Strong southerly flow should bring higher BL moisture back to the region, while strong westerly flow aloft overspreads the region as a trough passes along with a strong cold front. In the warm sector ahead of the front there is the potential for at least moderate CAPE values as steep mid level lapse rates will be in place, though capping may play a role in delayed initiation until the front and better synoptic ascent arrive. Timing of the front and forcing and any capping ahead of this will all play roles in determining coverage and ultimately impacts. Strong effective shear is forecast across the region, with hodographs in the warm sector supportive of supercells and very large hail or tornadoes (mesoscale details will ultimately play a role on how this pattern is realized). AI based systems that have shown good skill this season highlight higher probabilities for severe thunderstorms in our area, especially over west central MN which conceptually makes sense.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR skies this evening with some patchy 6-8kft CIGs between 06 and 18z as a the backside of the low drags some moisture through the region. Winds dropping off quickly with some 20+ kt gusts through 03z otherwise W/NW winds through the night and tomorrow with winds increasing but remaining under 30 kts for tomorrow.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-054. MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004-007.