textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected Tuesday, and a Wind Advisory is in effect. There is a chance for strong wind gusts greater than 45 mph again Thursday as another front passes through region during the daytime and evening periods.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected over parts of the region each afternoon Tuesday through Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect Tuesday afternoon and early evening for parts of eastern North Dakota.

..Fire weather impacts this week

Today: RH values from the upper teens to mid 20s are being reported over much of the region this afternoon, with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph across eastern ND. Winds have been slower to increase in MN as expected but less frequent/localized gusts to 25 mph can be expected along the Red River Valley in MN (15 to 20 mph east of the valley) before RH values recover this evening. Red Flag Conditions are expected to continue through early evening in ND and near critical conditions in northwest/west central MN.

Tuesday: Low cloud cover will initially delay the increase in temperatures and where it lingers limit potential daytime heating mixing in northwest MN. In central ND and parts of eastern ND clearing skies are expected and deeper mixing will support Tds falling below 40F. Where temperatures reach the upper 60s/lower 70s in ND RH values are likely to fall below 30%, and considering the stronger winds critical fire weather would be expected. This is most likely from parts of the Devils Lake basin to southeast ND, where a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the afternoon/early evening period. There is much less confidence in the northern Red River Valley of ND. RH values are more likely to remain above 30% in our MN based on current data, however due to the strong winds near critical fire weather conditions are still likely within the Red River Valley of MN and parts of west central MN as skies clear/temperatures increase.

The rest of the week: Warm temperatures and low RH values 30% or lower are expected over at least parts of the region through Saturday. The lowest RH values of the week may be Wednesday, however that day features the lightest winds. Thursday carries the next best chance for Red Flag Conditions dependent on mixing heights (better chances may be in ND than in northwest MN).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact KBJI through around 08Z, with lingering scattered showers elsewhere. VFR ceilings prevail during the early overnight period, with MVFR cloud cover filling into most of the area by 12Z. Winds increase out of the northwest during the overnight, with KDVL already seeing the wind shift following a cold front. Look for sustained winds of 20-30 mph, with gusts increasing to near 40 knots by mid morning, especially at KDVL, KGFK, and KFAR. Cloud cover starting late Tuesday morning, with further improvement through the afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-014- 015-024-026-028-038-039-049-052-053. MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007- 027-029-030-040.