textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon and tomorrow. Todays threat will mainly be in north-central Minnesota in our far eastern zones with primarily hail and tornadoes as a threat. The threat area shifts south tomorrow, mainly encompassing west-central Minnesota.

- There is a signal for continued precipitation through the week, including the potential for a return of winter weather. There is a 30% chance of advisory level impacts late this week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Continuing to keep the fog mention to patchy with no headlines needed, as visibility has been mostly in the 1 to 2 miles at the lowest. Next round of rain showers look to move in tomorrow morning as a weak vort approaches. Still some instability getting into our far southeastern counties tomorrow afternoon, although the CAMs have been trending further south with the convection they develop. HREF probabilities of around 10 percent clip parts of Grant and Otter Tail counties, and at this point the window for any severe in our area seems pretty narrow.

As for winter precip chances with the weekend system, the NBM continues to trend lighter with snow amounts, with probabilities of over 3 inches less than 20 percent. However, the chances for ice have increased to around 20 to 30 percent and any of that can cause impacts so will keep the possibility of advisory messaging the same.

..SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW

While the bulk of the severe weather threat is south of our area, there is the potential once more for severe thunderstorms in southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. A cold front will move through this evening, largely scouring away the majority of instability. The expectation for tomorrow is recovery in southern Minnesota, intensifying a surface warm front somewhere in that area. North of this warm front, elevated instability should continue to linger through tomorrow, bringing with it at least the potential for elevated supercells capable of large hail. While the surface pattern mostly favors surface based convection tomorrow afternoon well south, any variations in the location of the warm front will drive where impacts will be felt. As such, it is possible for areas like Grant County to have an increasing tornado threat if and only if the warm front is much further north than guidance currently shows. The most likely outcome, however, is for primarily a damaging hail threat from elevated storms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

IFR to MVFR ceilings across most of the TAF sites, although KBJI has dropped to LIFR with vis around a mile and 300 ft ceilings. Some improvement to that sites later tonight, but the rest of the airports should stay pretty steady or drop down to IFR. Improvement to MVFR is possible by the end of the period. Keeping precip chances out for now as best probabilities are in the later half of the TAF period and hard to pinpoint exact placement. Winds will become more northeasterly rather than northerly, staying at 10 to 15 kts for the most part.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.