textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Clipper train inbound early week.

- Multiple scenarios exist with a late week system including the potential for widespread accumulating snow and concurrent strong winds.

UPDATE

Issued at 948 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

No major updates to this forecast as conditions remain mostly the same. Some higher level clouds are working their way into the region from the west but no real feasible weather impacts should arise from these. Therefore, expect a quiet night with no weather impacts.

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Skies are mostly clear this evening and quiet weather will be the story through the overnight hours. With winds remaining elevated overnight, fog shouldn't be a concern so weather impacts are not expected tonight.

..Synopsis

There will be a few key features to keep track of in the large scale pattern through the coming week. First a building omega block with a western ridge centered in California and extending north along the Pacific coast and Canadian Rockies will be the main driver of steering flow in the central/northern plains this week. As ridging strengthens from an 582dam (today) to ~590dam by Wednesday evening, flow at 500mb will become increasingly northerly. In the near term this will lead to thermal ridging across the Canadian Prairies and plains with highs amid a chinook airmass Monday and Tuesday very likely to reach above freezing with some perhaps nearing 40 in southeast North Dakota. A quick shortwave Monday night/Tuesday morning will bring some rain and wintry mix with winds over 30 mph looking likley. Thursday then looks to bring a stronger system from a less typical direction... due north. This will likely result in a track that is harder to nail down at longer lead times but most scenarios do indicate accumulating snow accompanied by strong northerly winds.

- Today

Wintry mix coming an end early this afternoon as this ongoing system moves quickly east. Impacts have been sparsely noted aside from a few rain drops on area webcams. However, seeing area RWIS sensors in the low to mid 20s suggesting a high potential for any liquid QPF to freeze on contact leading to slick travel. Will likely let the current advisory drop off at 3pm as scheduled unless impacts are noted that warrant an extension. Aside from the freezing rain potential there is still up to 1" of snow expected in the northwest angle this evening.

- Monday night/Tuesday

Another quick hitting clipper will slide through southern Manitoba Monday night with the warm low level airmass in place via thermal ridging favoring rain and freezing rain prior to 12z and lingering snow showers through the day in the post frontal airmass where temps are expected to cool enough aloft. Potentially a bigger concern than the wintry mix in the morning will be the increasing winds behind the front after 12-15z with sustained winds of 25-30 mph and gusts near 40 mph. During any linger afternoon snow showers if temps remain on the cool side and closer to freezing this could lead to isolated brief whiteout conditions but should temps stay over 35 degrees blowing snow impacts would be near non-existent so really toeing a fine line. Overall would put advisory level impact potential from the combination of the wintry mix and blowing snow potential somewhere around 30%.

- Thursday/Friday

By Thursday we will be looking at what appears to be a stronger than average clipper. However it will be slightly more complicated than that. As multiple waves interact this will be a longer duration system with falling precip from Thursday morning to Friday afternoon. Initially southerly winds on Thursday morning amid low level warm air advection will pose a lesser risk to blowing snow, combined with the fact we are likely to get above freezing and crust the existing snowpack Thursday afternoon. During this time expect falling snow with 1-2" falling during the day. This may limit visibility while falling but is unlikely to remain airborne due to the warm temps. Conditions then turn worse for Friday as winds increase behind the Thursday evening/overnight cold front with stronger low level CAA leading to sustained winds upwards of 30 mph and gusts upwards of 40 mph. Between temps falling off Thursday night and winds picking up on Friday morning the current forecast calls for 1-2" (subject to change for sure) which at the moment would be enough to support widespread blowing snow and impacts to visibility. The last 12 hours of the event 6am Friday to 6pm Friday will have existing snow from the morning/light falling snow/and strong winds.

All this together leads to a 50% chance for warning type impacts from blowing snow if everything lines up as described above. Now this is just one scenario but it does detail what could be considered a higher end one out of the gamut of possibilities. A low end scenario would still likely bring advisory type snowfall and blowing snow but would recommend following this period in the forecast over the coming days as confidence in impacts evolves.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1113 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Aviation impacts will remain minimal at least through 03z tomorrow evening as VFR conditions will continue to prevail. After 00z, there is the expectation for an incoming system to bring precipitation to the region, but timing this out is very difficult and impacts to TAF sites look towards the end of the TAF period. In any case, precipitation types could range from rain to freezing rain, which is of high uncertainty so it has been foregone from this TAF issuance. Greater certainty is expected as we approach future issuances.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.