textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog is expected to develop tonight behind the departing rain showers.

- Additional light rain is expected Friday night through Saturday night, and there is the potential for widespread soaking rain early next week. These rain events may impact outdoor activities and harvest.

..Rain Friday night and again Monday/Tuesday

Another quick moving shortwave coming through Friday night into Saturday morning will bring another round of light rain to the region. Probabilities of a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain is over 60 percent, but drops off quickly for over half an inch. Some weak instability of less than 500 J/kg of MU CAPE could bring a few claps of thunder, but nothing else impactful. A stronger system moving in Monday into Tuesday could bring a more interesting setup, with some ensemble members showing portions of our forecast area in the warm sector with machine learning having a low probability for severe. Others have the track of the low a little further south and more stratiform precip setting up. While chances of severe are not high, there is over a 70 percent chance for an inch of rain or more over portions of the forecast area, so another round of soaking rain seems likely and will continue to message.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Widespread IFR stratus is in place across northwest MN with MVFR stratus in eastern ND, and a clearing region where VFR conditions have arrived at KDVL. There be brief VFR conditions early in the TAF period at KGFK as the back edge of the stratus area is just to the west, but the trend should be for sub VFR conditions to prevail. Moist low level flow remains in place this evening into Friday and stratus will fill back in with IFR and LIFR stratus overspreading much of the region. At least light fog impacts (3-6sm) are expected within the areas of current stratus, with a 30% chance for IFR visibility from fog or patchy drizzle in eastern ND and northwest MN. There should be pockets of fog 1sm or less that develop where radiational conditions support it and this is more likely towards KDVL during the early Friday morning hours.

Improving trends from IFR to MVFR are expected Friday, however when/if VFR conditions develop is tougher. Southeast winds increase which should help lower level mixing, but due to the persistence of the moist pattern MVFR stratus or stratocumulus may continue to build over the region through the afternoon and evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.