textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Most scenarios bring at least a 70 percent chance for advisory level winter impacts Thursday into Friday, especially from the Red River Valley eastward into northwest Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 959 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Area temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 30s but increasing cloud coverage should limit most from climbing into the 40s which would approach daily record highs. Forecast otherwise remains on track.

..Winter System Thursday into Friday

Very little has changed over the past 24 hours regarding how the general synoptic pattern evolves late week, with a stronger system passing through Thursday into Friday. An area of falling snow on Thursday will give way to more light snow and much stronger winds on Friday. Several factors will determine the severity of visibility reductions on Friday from blowing snow. First, how warm temperatures get on Thursday will impact the state of the freshest snow, as the current snowpack will be unblowable after several days of rain/warm temperatures. Second, how much falling snow will there be on Friday accompanying the strong northerly winds? The more widespread falling snow we have, the more likely it is that visibility reductions will be more severe and widespread. Third is how much snow falls on Thursday. If we get towards the upper end of guidance, a few inches of new snow could fall. If we were to get several inches of new snow and they remain uncrusted and blowable, a lack of falling snow on Friday would not matter as much, as there would be sufficient snow to blow. All told, there remains significant uncertainty regarding how this event will evolve, with each piece of the forecast hinging on another. The floor and ceiling of this event has not really changed much, with the probability for advisory impacts or greater around 70%. Check back for more updates as they become available over the next couple of days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR ceilings will give way to MVFR by afternoon. There may be a few brief instances of IFR and KBJI and KTVF, but predictability is too low at this time to add a mention into the TAFs. Winds will pick up after sunrise, with gusts of 30 to 35 knots at most TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Wind direction will also change, from westerly to north by the end of the TAF period. There is a low chance for a few flurries or sprinkles at KTVF and KBJI this morning, then more widespread into the afternoon/evening. Due to the extremely brief and scattered nature of any precipitation, I did not mention it in the TAF. However, if coverage becomes more widespread then currently forecast, a PROB30 or TEMPO could be added in to account for it.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.