textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered snow showers across north central Minnesota may bring grassy accumulations this evening and overnight with minimal impacts to travel expected.

- Temperatures will run near normal through the weekend before warming up early next week.

..Synopsis

Broad northwest upper flow continues tonight, with flow turning more northerly heading into tomorrow. Weak shortwaves are traversing the flow this evening and overnight, with a chance for light rain showers and even some snow showers. Ground/pavement temperatures remain widely above freezing in the 40s north of HWY 2 to near 60 in the far south this afternoon. Air temperatures in the mid 30s however are already supportive of snow across much of the Lake of the Woods/Red Lakes area with showers (both rain and snow) to overspread much of the forecast area this afternoon and persist into tonight. There is a low (10%) probability for some freezing drizzle to mix in through saturation looks to generally be deep enough to reach to warm end of the DGZ and allow for ice nucleation. Perhaps elevated surfaces could be at and increased risk of icing but otherwise impacts should be minimal. With any snow that falls, rates should be low and not enough to overcome warm roads but some grassy accumulations could be seen from Park rapids to Grygla/Roseau and east to the Red Lakes. Would not expect more than 1" even in higher end scenarios where lake effect processes occur downstream of Lake of the Woods and the Red Lakes.

Daytime highs will be in the 30s on Thursday through Saturday. Overnight lows fall into the teens Thursday night into Friday morning with wind chills falling into the single digits at times in Devils Lake Basin. Aside from the showers today/tonight, dry weather is expected to persist through much of the forecast period. Warmth returns late weekend with highs back in the 50s for the first half of next week.

Looking down the road a bit, there is growing support for a potentially active period of weather starting towards the latter half of next week. This starts with a strong signal for blocking across the central CONUS and into most of the Canadian Prairies. Resultant troughs form on either side of the mid level ridge, which eventually dislodge and work eastward. Ensemble clusters are beginning to support solutions that hint at precipitation toward the very end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Areas of low stratus with MVFR ceilings continue to linger over much of eastern ND and northwest MN, with several regions of clearing that likely will not persist at any one location for an extended period of time early in the TAF period before filling back in. Trend should still be for more substantial improvement to VFR conditions as drier low level air moves into the region Thursday, but this may take longer at some locations than others (KBJI may be the last to improve based on trends in guidance). Light northerly winds should drop below 10kt and eventually become light and variable 5kt or less as the axis of surface high pressure moves across the region.

There is still a low chance for a few light snow showers mainly in north central MN, but chances for impacts at KBJI have decreased and I removed mention during this update.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.