textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds are expected through tonight across eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley.

- Freezing temperatures are forecast in the Devils Lake Basin tonight. There is a medium to high probability of widespread freezing temperatures Friday night across much of the area.

..Freezing Temperatures

We have issued a Freeze Warning for portions of the area centered on the Devils Lake Basin tonight, where ensemble guidance and upstream observations provide high confidence in overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s F. This is supported by expected low-level cold air advection, but may be offset by lingering clouds (stratus) and winds that may not diminish until close to sunset even in those areas. Across the remainder of eastern ND and northwest and west central MN, we believe the cloud cover and winds will tend to inhibit the efficiency of cooling. Taken at face value, the 50th percentile NBM guidance suggests temperatures around 32 in parts of the MN lakes country. In contrast, MOS-based guidance (which is not bias-corrected by recent background trends) favors the temperatures staying above freezing, consistent with the expectation of cloud cover and winds limiting full cooling potential.

Medium to high probabilities for freezing temperatures exist Friday night owing to the cool post-frontal air mass and expectation of a clear sky. The official forecast calls for low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s F, lowest in parts of west central MN, which will be near a surface ridge axis the longest during the night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A secondary stronger cold front will move through the region from north to south this evening, bringing stronger winds and lower ceilings. The most likley timing of this front is 00z-02z for our TAF sites. Ahead of the front northwest winds with gusts up to 25 knots along with scattered showers and on and off MVFR cigs. Along and behind the frontal passage winds will gust up to 45 knots within the valley and up to 40 knots outside the valley, along with showers and MVFR cigs (with a low chance for IFR cigs). These conditions will last for a few hours and then cigs will improve and winds slowly diminish.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for NDZ008-016-027-029-030- 039-049-052-053. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024- 026-028-038-054. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006-007-014- 015-054. MN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001>004-007-029.