textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms both late Sunday and Monday. The main hazards will be gusty winds and hail, with a few tornadoes possible Monday.

- There is potential for near critical fire weather conditions Sunday.

..Severe potential late Sunday and Monday

With the approach of a stout upper trough from west to east, synoptic forcing aloft increases as does increasing wind energy. This will also help return low level moisture into our area - however, the degree of which remains uncertain. Additionally, there a tongue of steep lapse rates aloft overspreading the warm sector during this time. As this warm sector noses into the region, elevated robust thunderstorms are expected late Sunday, of which may impact our area. Should this occur, storms may be severe with large hail the main hazard. This activity could linger Sunday overnight into Monday morning.

During the day Monday, majority of ensemble guidance swings a cold front through our area, providing focus for ascent and sparking thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty in strength of capping, although this doesn't appear to be an "unbreakable" cap, especially when considering the degree of forcing for ascent that could erode/break through capping inversion.

While kinematic parameter spacing looks to be on the stronger side (mean bulk shear within ensembles is around 50kt), instability is a bit more questionable. While antecedent air mass ahead of the warm sector is rather devoid of rich moisture, there may be enough return and pooling ahead of the approaching front to allow for at least a narrow corridor of rich low level moisture aiding in instability and overall low level buoyancy.

Ultimately, this still allows for the potential of all hazards considering discrete storm mode still remains possible. AI / ML guidance like StormNet supports this. However, orientation of the cold front and upper trough axis may not support discrete storm mode. Thus, storm mode and its influence to dictate dominant hazards still remains questionable.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period. North and northeast winds will subdue after 00Z. Mostly clear skies are also forecast. This may introduce potential for patchy fog around the region, although uncertainty exists in winds going completely calm. Thus, kept mention of BR/FG out of TAFs for now.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.