textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected.

..Synopsis

Split flow is aloft is in place across the US with dry/war west- northwest flow over the Northern Plains as the more active northern jet stream and storm track remains in Canada. This is resulting in above average temperatures (close to 2 standard deviations from seasonal normals for highs) and dry/breezy conditions.

There is a trough that deepens Tuesday-Wedesnay that brings a brief period of stronger north-northwest flow aloft and a quick moving shortwave trough and cold front. The track of organized forcing is east of our CWA with the ma and deeper dry air preceding the arrival even the subset of ensemble members that show rain are very light (less than 0.1"). The consensus in ensembles with that system is for no measurable precipitation (may remain virga or sprinkles). The main result will be a brief return to seasonable temperatures Wednesday into Friday.

There is a strong signal in all ensembles than upper level ridging and anomalous heights/temperatures aloft (NAEFS percentiles 90% or higher/SD 1.5-2) by next weekend and early the next week. The net result will be continued dry conditions and a return to above average temperatures that my extend well beyond the end of the 7 day period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, as a much drier air mass and better mixing will be in place due to increasing winds. Winds increase from the southwest then west-northwest through the afternoon/evening with gusts 30kt+ in the KDVL area (up to 25kt towards KGFK/KFAR). A 40-45kt low level jet is building into the region, and will be over the entire region by this evening. As surface mixing decreases after sunset a period of low level wind shear should develop and last through the early morning hours Sunday. Surface gradient and winds aloft both decrease during the morning morning hours and we should see prevailing winds drop below 12kt across the region.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.