textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms today. The main impacts for any storms that become severe will be ping pong ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph. Flash Flooding is also possible.
UPDATE
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026
Cloud cover continues to increase this morning across the area. Winds will start to increase out of the south by mid morning, with sustained south to southeast winds of 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph heading into the afternoon. Thunderstorm timing is slightly more resolved in recent guidance, with chances increasing around midday and persisting into the late afternoon to early evening.
..Marginal risk for severe Monday
The ridge axis shifts east tomorrow and the flow aloft becomes southwesterly. Deep layer shear will be increasing up into the 40 to 50 kt range by tomorrow afternoon. But the instability becomes more uncertain. Some of the ensemble members don't have any surface based CAPE at all, but enough do that the mean CAPE into eastern ND is around 1500 J/kg. Much will depend on what exactly happens this evening and into the overnight. HREF and REFS updraft helicity probabilities have some chance, but not super impressive. At this point with all the unknowns the level 1 risk seems reasonable.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026
IFR ceilings prevail at KGFK this morning as clouds continue to increase out of the west. VFR conditions prevail at all other TAF sites, but will gradually see MVFR, then IFR ceilings as the morning progresses. Added a PROB30 to all sites as thunderstorm timing becomes slightly more confident. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected today, with hazards including large hail and damaging wind gusts. Brief periods of reduced visibility are possible with thunderstorm activity. Low ceilings are expected to linger this afternoon and evening. Winds will increase out of the south to southeast later this morning, with gusts approaching 25 knots.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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