textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a medium to high chance for frost as early as Thursday night to Friday morning, with additional chances this weekend into next week.

- Medium chance for rain showers Saturday, mainly within Minnesota. Accumulations are expected to remain under 0.25 inches.

..Synopsis

Influence from an upper trough in Canada spreads into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, starting this afternoon into evening as a dry cold front sweeps through. This will increase winds and bring today's above average temperatures back toward average Thursday into next week. Winds may briefly gusty this evening, especially in the Red River Valley. Winds reinvigorate area-wide by late morning, lasting through the afternoon. North-northwest winds 20-35 mph can be anticipated, highest in northeast ND and northwest MN.

While cooler temperatures into the upper 30s are forecast tonight in northeast ND, a steady light breeze behind the front is expected to prevent temperatures from tanking via radiational cooling. This will limit the chance for frost.

Frost becomes more likely Thursday night into Friday as surface high pressure centers itself more into our region keeping winds calm and skies clear. Best chance for fog currently resides in northeast ND and northwest MN, but areas generally north of I-94 also hold a medium chance of seeing frost.

Additional chances for frost exist this weekend into next week, particularly Sunday night into Monday morning.

The upper pattern remains in a quasi-zonal flow through the weekend, with a shortwave trough forecast to move through around Saturday. This will provide forcing for ascent bringing a medium chance for rain showers. This wave is likely to be devoid of overall moisture content, thus rain amounts are anticipated to be rather low - less than quarter of an inch.

Ensemble guidance suggests in transient shortwave ridging early next week, although the influence of this remains in question. There could be a brief trend in temperatures toward slightly above average temperatures; otherwise, temperatures are forecast to remain near average.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR will prevail throughout the TAF period. Winds are in the process to shifting to the northwest as a cold front pushes southward. These northwest winds will remain at up to 10 knots overnight, then increase slightly on Thursday. Gusts Thursday afternoon will approach 25 knots.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.