textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow between 1 to 4 inches is forecast across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota mainly south of Interstate 94 this morning. Localized areas may see up to 6 inches.

UPDATE

Issued at 339 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

An intense band of snow has organized in northeast SD with the strongest lobe of 700MB frontogensis, but this is not the area of concern for our CWA. Upstream in western ND several areas/bands of snow are organizing along the nose of 850MB WAA and weaker but still organized frontogenesis. This extends to the northwest into northeast Montana and is aligned with 850-700 MB flow with our far southwest CWA. The last 5 runs of the HRRR have trended more in line with global models and reflects the current orientation of the area of snow. This places the best chances for advisory snowfall impacts south of I-94 with lighter snow farther to the northeast. The main period of accumulation in our area is in the 6am-Noon period, and due to the mesoscale nature of banding heavy rates could create highly variable totals within the axis of snow which could fall just south or slightly to the north of this axis. For now the Winter Weather Advisory remains in place with any adjustments (cancellations or expansions) determined by the short term evolution of the banding as it finally moves into our area.

UPDATE Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

A considerable amount of uncertainty remains in where the snow band sets up tonight with most guidance keeping it more south and west of our forecast area counties aside from perhaps Sargent. The notable exceptions in the 00z guidance that has come in so far are the HRRR, RAP, and a few of the WRF models but the global members all keep advisory level snow largely out of our area. Not going to change any headlines for now and will at least wait till it starts snowing so we confidence that greater than 3" of snow is not going to happen within the current counties under the advisory for Saturday.

..Snow Saturday morning

There is a noteworthy signal for consolidated and strong low- mid level frontogenesis coincident with a low amplitude but relatively organized shortwave trough. This will generate a band of snow moving west to east into southeast ND into west-central MN starting predawn hours Saturday, lasting through the morning. Mesoscale ascent juxtaposed with snow production in the DGZ will allow moderate to at times heavy rates of fluffy snow. This will introduce some potential impact from reduced visibility to half a mile. Accumulating snow is expected under this snow band, generally between 2-4 inches, with locally higher amount nearing 6 inches possible. Confidence continues to be low in its exact placement, however. This is common for this type of mesoscale-driven type forcing. Some guidance brings the snow band as far north as Devils Lake to Grand Forks and points south, whereas others keep the band more confined to the ND/SD/MN region. Based on neighborhood probabilities within the HEFS and REFS of at least 3 inches of snow more confined to the tri-state region, opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory to highlight the relatively best chance at seeing accumulating snow. Winds are not anticipated to be strong during this event. So even if snow accumulations do touch 6 inches, we do not expect warning-type impacts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Light snow is beginning to move from western ND towards southeast ND with variable visibilities where the most intense bands of snow track this morning (VLIFR at times). While the most intense banding is more likely to remain south, there is a good chance for brief IFR vis at KFAR during the mid to late morning period. Snow exits the region midday/early afternoon to the south-southeast ending the threat for visibility impacts at TAF sites. This system is also bringing MVFR stratus into central and southeast ND by late morning and impacts at KDVL and at least brief impacts at KFAR are expected. VFR is more likely to prevail in northeast ND and northwest MN TAF sites as the main area of snow and stratus remains south. Northerly winds increase to 10-13kt this afternoon, with light or even calm winds this evening/overnight as high pressure returns.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ038-049- 052-053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ029-040.