textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers is expected this afternoon through tonight, bringing a two day total of a quarter to half inch for nearly all areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Drizzle and scattered showers continue this morning across the area, along with an increase in north winds. Cloudy skies are expected through the day, with drizzle winding down late this morning. Additional shower activity is expected this afternoon and evening, however, followed by a surge of cooler air.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Severe potential continues to dwindle in our southeast (Wilkin, Grant, Ottertail, Wadena counties) with a small hail threat the main concern as of now through about 10-11pm. Could see some hail up to dime size but even that feels like a stretch. IN OTHER NEWS ITS RAINING. For the first time since mid to late April for most we are seeing rain totals over a quarter inch which should immensely help to put a damper on blowing dust and fire danger.

..SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the warm front roughly situated just north of Sioux Falls. This has allowed intense isentropic ascent over our area, bringing some solid moisture content to the region. This warm front remains expected to propagate northward this afternoon and bringing surface moisture with it. CAM guidance continues to generally prog the surface instability south of our CWA, barely scraping Grant County. Per HREF probabilities, there is only a 10% chance to even see 500 J/kg of SCAPE. MUCAPE also is very closely attached to this warm front and shares similar probabilities as a result. Having said that, shear associated with the front is rather strong, approaching 50+ knots. There will be a brief window this evening (likely at most 1-2 hours) wherein severe convection may impact our west-central Minnesota counties. Any severe convection will most likely be hail as storms are likely to be elevated as storm relative winds in the 0-2km layer are most likely to be due easterly, so it will be difficult to ingest warmer air to the south. If surface-based convection arises, tornadoes can't be ruled out but again this is very unlikely at this time and would require very strong propagation northward in the warm front. The window of severe thunderstorms ends roughly close to midnight at the latest, but should generally be out of the area by 8-10 PM CDT.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

LIFR to IFR ceilings prevail at all TAF sites this morning except KBJI, where MVFR ceilings are being reported. Look for continued low ceilings and drizzle this morning, with cloudy skies and IFR ceilings through much of the period. Showers move back into the area late this afternoon and evening, with the potential for LIFR conditions once more as BR and light rain impact visibility. Shower activity should gradually wind down overnight, however, there is support for continued IFR ceilings heading into Tuesday morning. Winds remain out of the north through the TAF period at all TAF sites. Gusts will range from 25-30 knots at KGFK, KFAR, and KDVL from late this morning through the evening hours.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.