textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Active pattern with several weak systems this weekend and early next week, bringing light snow chances. 50 percent chance of over an inch of snow in northwestern Minnesota Monday.

- Stronger low coming in on Tuesday, with a 70 percent chance for at least minor impacts and some mixed precipitation possible in southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 951 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Snow continues to taper in the south with clearing skies. Cold and dry air continues to filter in from the north with a majority of the area falling below zero tonight. Light winds should limit wind chills issues overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Light snow continues in the far southern reaches of our area and should begin to taper off in the next several hours. Furthern north, very cold air is filtering in from the north with a majority of the northern Red River Valley already hitting close to -10. Expect a very cold night as the surface high begins to push in from the northwest. Wind chills should remain between -20 and -25 through the overnight thanks to light winds.

..More substantial snow Tuesday

Ensembles still are in pretty good agreement on a fairly vigorous shortwave digging into the Red River Valley on Tuesday into Wednesday. There are still some 50 to 100 mile differences in the exact track of the surface low, which will have an affect on impacts. The strongest QPF chances look to be on the leading edge of the system with warm air advection, and it is possible that portions of our southern counties could even see some rain mixing in with snow. A lot of questions for how much this will impact blowability of the snow later as cold air advection kicks in behind the system Tuesday night. Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index continues to have around 70 percent chance for minor/advisory level impacts. Chances for 6 inches or more of snow for warning are lower, around 15 percent. However, will have to watch with the winds picking up and blowing any new snow around. At this point the overlap between expected strongest winds and heaviest snow is not good, but could always have some problems with lingering snow showers and strong winds into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. For now, will continue to have a general messaging strategy with what we know and what we don't know, and leave probability graphics for a bit later.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through 18z of the TAF period. As the surface high moves off early tomorrow afternoon, southeasterly winds will increase at DVL/GFK/FAR. Accompanying this by late afternoon will be falling ceilings, likely to MVFR depending on the track of a system moving from northwest to southeast. Accompanying this will be a broad swath of light snowfall that will push visibilities down to 2-4SM. The bulk of guidance keeps the main portions of this system west, however a few ensemble members do push the system as far east as FAR/GFK. Should a further easterly scenario arise, expect widespread MVFR ceilings and visibility at DVL/GFK/FAR while a further west solution will allow for those TAF sites to remain VFR. Regardless, the reasonable worst case scenario for these TAF sites will be prevailing MVFR conditions with a low chance for brief IFR conditions.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.