textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon in parts of west central Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Remaining clouds have mostly cleared out of NE ND, and will gradually clear out of NW MN as well thru the early to mid morning. 850 mb moisture and soundings indicate probably some high based CU development with daytime heating today in NW MN, perhaps in parts of northeast ND. Outside of this a mostly sunny day. Will need to watch for patchy fog forming in areas that clear out as winds though not calm are very light as high pressure builds in. HRRR remains not aggressive with fog development except for a few random patches in NW MN.

Monday frontal system looks to move through quickly from northwest to southeast entering NE ND in the morning and exiting WC MN by late afternoon. Thus chances for showers and a few t-storms will be more morning/midday in E ND and far NW MN and afternoon in WC MN and it is in parts of west central MN where MU CAPES of 1500-2000 j/kg develop by mid afternoon and may result in a chance for strong or locally severe storms. This area is Fergus Falls to Park Rapids and south.

..Severe Thunderstorm Risk Monday

The strongest part of the upper trough remains north of our region, and there is still quite a bit of spread regarding the timing of PVA/forcing along the base of the upper low in Canada. There is at leas a signal for showers and thunderstorms with 40-60% probabilities for wetting rain (0.1"+). However, the potential for severe thunderstorm impacts will depend on the timing of both the larger scale forcing and surface features/mesoscale details which are still carrying lower predictability/higher spread with multiple scenarios on location, timing, coverage of severe coverage. Machine learning and AI based systems still highlight a 5%+ potential for severe storms Monday afternoon into Monday night in southeast ND towards parts of west central and northwest MN.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A large CU field with variable ceilings developed as morning stratus broke up across northwest MN, and has expanded into eastern ND. Most locations are VFR, however there are lingering pockets of MVFR mainly in northwest MN. As daytime heating picks up this layer should trend towards VFR (around 5000ft AGL) then clear with loss of daytime heating. West to northwest winds 10-13kt should also decrease with sunset as surface high pressure continues to build eastward.

Eventually low pressure building to the west will result in increasing winds from the south and southwest ahead of a front Monday morning, with winds shifting to the west behind this front by midday. High based showers may develop into the region during the morning hours as the front moves into the region, however coverage/chances during the later TAF period are still low (less than 30%).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.