textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than normal temperatures through next week.

- There is the potential for a more active period towards the end of next week. Predictability is low at this time for impacts.

UPDATE

Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Flurries have been reported under the low stratus over the Devils Lake Basin and northeast ND. This correlates with where RAP/HRRR shows 925MB WAA is in place and saturation is just deep enough in this cold air mass for ice crystal growth. Based on the timing of this bubble of weak WAA flurries may continue through 12-14Z in our northwest and flurries were added to the morning forecast period. A very light dusting can't be ruled out completely, but impacts should be limited. Otherwise, forecast is on track with a general clearing trend of any lingering low stratus still favored as southerly flow increases later this afternoon and evening.

The rest of the forecast period also remains on track this week, with warmer temperatures ahead of an eventual pattern shift late in the week. There is still a signal for a more active storm track by the end of the week, but not a lot of consistency on the details (evolution/timing/track) of any systems. No changes to Key Messages necessary at this time.

..Synopsis

A broad swath of snow continues across the Dakota state line and is barely scraping past our southern counties at this point in time. The strongest forcing has all but diminished in our area, so remaining light snow should generally be a few tenths to an inch. Impacts will remain minimal as no wind is associated with this. Snow should come to an end as a 1036mb surface high propagates towards us. Moisture content and forcing will diminish, with cold temperatures being left in its wake this evening with overnight lows well below zero and approaching -20 where more snowpack exists. Light winds will mitigate widespread wind chill impacts, however -30 wind chills could arise in the north if enough wind arises and temperatures fall low enough. Given these questions, a Cold Weather Advisory was not issued tonight but may be necessary if impacts become more widespread.

The 500mb jet max begins to push northward away from our area Sunday into Monday, allowing height rises to occur and temperatures to increase over the region. This will allow temperatures to rise up into the 30s and 40s across the region with overall high temperatures largely being dependent on snowpack status, which is likely to change through each day. As such, predictability for high temperatures is low, but you can generally expect at least above freezing temperatures at some point next week.

Towards the end of the period, there are signals of a breakdown of the large scale ridge providing our warm temperatures. This would increase our chances for an active period, however the evolution of this ridge breakdown will drive our impacts, of which predictability is low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Confidence in prevailing ceilings is low across eastern ND and northwest MN as lingering pockets of MVFR stratus (and a few reports of flurries) move west to east, while also redevelop as surface high pressure lingers in northern MN and BL flow remains very light and out of the east-southeast. Between these areas of stratus clear skies are in place, so the net result is highly variable and locally changeable flight conditions. The general trend in guidance supports these areas of MVFR status shifting east-northeast and lifting during the daytime period and prevailing VFR arriving midday as BL flow shifts to the south and increases (along with the benefit of daytime mixing).

Deepening gradient and a low level jet this evening will resulting in gusty winds developing tonight, along with a period of low level wind shear. This also acts to dry out the low levels and keeps VFR in place overnight.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.