textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures are expected through early week, with a return to seasonably cool temperatures for the second half of the week.

..Synopsis

A mid/upper level shortwave ridge is moving over the Northern Plains while a weak shortwave trough moves across the Canadian prairies. The general trend is for a deep dry air mass to remain in place, though this trough passage to the north will result in increasing unidirectional west-northwest flow resulting in increasing WAA in the BL and mild temperatures Monday along with breezy to windy conditions (a few gusts around 35 mph). As higher level clouds clear we should see a period of good mixing and daytime heating Monday and highs should reach the upper 50s for many locations in the valley and potential around 60 (NBM 90th percentile). This is almost 20 degrees above average for this time of November.

The larger scale evolution of the pattern will be north- northwesterly in response to larger troughing developing in eastern Canada and several shortwaves and a cold front passing Tuesday and Wednesday bring seasonably cooler temperatures back to the region for the second half of the week. There should be enough organized forcing to bring at least chances for light rain to the region, however preceding deep dry air in place may limit coverage of measurable rainfall (virga and sprinkles may be more common). Still, NBM shows a 20-30% chance for up to 0.1" rainfall during the Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning period.

There is a strong signal in all ensembles than upper level ridging and anomalous heights/temperatures aloft return by late weekend and we should see a return to above average temperatures by next weekend and early the next week. The net result will be continued dry conditions and a return to above average temperatures, while dry conditions persist into early next week. The eventual breakdown of the larger scale ridge would at least set up the region for southwest flow and precipitation chances (rain) may increase at some point the next week if that were to occur (beyond the current 7 day period).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Plenty of high clouds, with VFR conditions for all TAF sites. Winds are the main concern, with south direction at the surface and some southwest to west winds aloft at 35 to 40 kts that are bringing some low level wind shear to KDVL and the MN airports. Surface winds will shift to a more southwesterly then northwesterly direction as the trough axis over the central Dakotas moves through tomorrow morning. Gusts will increase to around 25 kts by afternoon, with speeds dropping off by the end of the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.