textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- No impactful weather is expected through the end of this week. Continued above average temperatures through Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 638 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Calm and mostly clear conditions currently exist over the area as surface high pressure settles in. Some high level cirrus is present across the region, and will linger in a transient fashion throughout the night, perhaps increasing some in coverage. This should make for good aurora viewing conditions, albeit, chilly as temperatures dip below freezing.

Calm and mostly clear conditions may promote development of shallow, patchy fog, particularly within the Red River Valley into northwest MN and Devils Lake basin. Moisture is generally lacking, and will require a temperature to decrease into the mid 20s. At this time, chance for dense fog is low, less than 20%. Chance for fog will reside between 5am to 9am.

..Synopsis

A clear, warm afternoon across the FA. Satellite shows only a few clouds. Cloud cover is increasing however over the western half of the Dakotas. These cirrus clouds are in an intensifying WAA regime, advancing towards our FA. In turn, these cirrus clouds will overspread the FA from west to east overnight.

The upper level ridge axis propagates through Thursday into Friday, leading to very warm temperatures. 850 mb temperatures are in the 90th to 99th percentiles Friday afternoon across much of the Northern Plains. Friday looks to be the warmest day, when widespread mid 50s to mid 60s are forecasted. This is still a few degrees short of records (Example: Fargo's record high on 11/14 is 66 degrees, while the current forecast is 60 degrees), but well above the average values near or slightly below 40 degrees. The warmest temperatures will be found in southeastern North Dakota northward into the Red River Valley.

Model guidance has sped up the timing of the cold frontal passage this weekend, while simultaneously reducing precipitation chances. Nevertheless, a few showers associated with the frontal forcing are possible Friday night into Saturday, before a more seasonal airmass propagates into the Upper Midwest. A brief return to ridging to end the weekend and to start the following work gives way to a more active pattern about a week from now. This switch to an active pattern has been more and more delayed with each model cycle. However, troughiness over the western US is still expected to lead to southwesterly flow over the Northern Plains at the tail end of the forecast period. Ensembles show many different potential scenarios at this time, leading to very low predictability in how even the synoptic pattern that will influence any system(s) pans out. Therefore, a smattering of low PoPs are still in the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday, but expect changes to the going forecast as we approach in time and predictability increases.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 638 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

No impacts are forecast to aviation through 00Z Thursday.

VFR conditions amid surface high pressure and scattered high level cirrus clouds are forecast. Winds will be light, less than 7kt until increasing toward 10kt out of the south after 16Z Thursday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.