textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the Devils Lake Basin. - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening over eastern North Dakota and the Red River valley.

UPDATE

Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed between Valley City and Devils Lake under some elevated instability with MU CAPE up to 2000 J/kg and a weak lead shortwave coming out in the southwesterly flow. Effective shear is pretty weak, so cells have been going up and coming down, but continue to develop. Adjusted POPs for some higher probabilities west of the Red River Valley through the rest of the morning into the afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 719 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

From looking over model data it looks like the main region for severe thunderstorm development will on the west edge of the warm temperatures where the highest most unstable and surface CAPE values will be. Plus also a 50-60 kt 500 mb jet will rotate north around the Saskatchewan upper low across western ND into southwest Manitoba this afternoon. Development of severe storms would be most favorable due to this 500 mb jet in north central ND early or mid afternoon. This would be west of the fcst area. Flow aloft is nearly south to north, slight east advancement, so storms will tend to train over the same area and unless storms can become more discrete and isolated severe weather potential may be limited and not as widespread as it could be. T-storm chance enters DVL basin mid afternoon and then only gradually spreads east as the individual storms move NNE.

..Severe Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday

Heading into Wednesday, the H5 upper low moves slightly further to the east, thus bringing our axis of instability further into eastern North Dakota. Where it ends up will depend on a number of factors; however, there will be another boundary pushing to the southeast later Wednesday afternoon. This will serve to provide additional lift and forcing, further supporting thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Initiation timing is also a bit uncertain at this time, mainly because there could be remnant showers ongoing during the morning hours and limiting daytime heating. The environment will be supportive of severe storms as MLCAPE climbs to near 2000 J/Kg and lapse rates remain strong. Low to mid level shear will be located close to the boundary once more; however, better forcing is expected as the reinforcing boundary pushes to the southeast during the afternoon and evening. Current storm mode favors hybrid clusters, followed by the potential for upscale growth into line segments and/or QLCS. Once more, soundings support all hazards.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 719 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

DVL TAF site will be most impacted by thunderstorms mid afternoon and into tonight. It will take quite some time for storm chances to reach GFK airport and may hold off til well past 03z if not later. Rest of the area likely to not see much til after 12z Wednesday. High and mid level clouds out ahead of our system today with a southeast wind 10-20 kts sustained with gusts to 25 kts within the RRV.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.