textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief heavy snow may impact the Tuesday morning commute in Devils Lake basin and northern Red River Valley.

- There is a 30% chance for advisory level winter impacts from accumulating snow and gusty winds Friday to Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Rain showers starting to move into the western Devils Lake Basin as the next shortwave approaches. Also getting a few weak thunderstorms in the southern Red River Valley that are not handled well by CAMs but are with around 250 J/kg of MU CAPE. This activity will continue to push eastward across our area overnight, and many of the ensemble members transition at least part of the precipitation in northeastern ND and northwestern MN over to snow. 00Z HREF has 40 to 50 percent chances for an inch or more of snow, although fairly warm pavement temps will mute the impact. Will keep the SPS going as advisory level impacts seem less than 20 percent.

..Late week winter impact potential

Ensemble guidance continues to cluster toward a scenario that features heavy snow in one or two more consolidated systems' deformation zones. However, most guidance favors majority of this snow to remain in Canada. There is still a subset of guidance that brings snow into our area, mainly north of Highway 200. This includes snow accumulation up to 5 inches. Snow may also coincide with gusty winds to introduce impacts from blowing snow and reduced visibility into this scenario.

Additionally, ensembles now reveal a potential scenario that brings a second wave of precipitation and snow through the region on Saturday. This widens the window of when winter impacts may occur from solely Friday to now Friday into Saturday.

Ensemble guidance has also trended some what down on potential for warning level impacts from 6 or more inches of snow to be less than 10%. However, the chance for advisory level winter impacts remains at around 30%.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Mostly VFR between this evening's showers and the next system starting to move in. KDVL has already gone down to MVFR and should see some rain by the time the 06Z TAFs are valid. MVFR to IFR ceilings will spread across the forecast area overnight, with the IFR stratus already starting in across southeastern ND. As for visibility, those sites with some rain or even a bit of snow showers could see some drops to 1 or 2 miles, but think the worst vis will stay north of the TAF sites. Winds will be generally range from northeasterly to northwesterly at 8 to 15 kts, eventually decreasing below 8 kts by the end of the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.