textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across the region Thursday. There is a chance for critical fire weather conditions late morning to early afternoon Thursday, mainly along the Red River Valley.
- Next chance for widespread rain comes Friday and Saturday, with overall light amounts under half an inch and very low chance for thunder.
..Fire weather conditions
Gusty south to southeast winds between lee surface troughing in the western Dakotas and a departing surface high pressure will keep winds elevated today, tonight, and Thursday. The pressure gradient and mixing winds aloft are not overly strong, generally around 15-30 mph. Gusts will be more intermittent tonight compared to this afternoon and Thursday. Gusts are expected to ramp up quickly in the morning as daytime mixes into the residual overnight low level jet.
Thursday's RH values are forecast to be in the 30s percent, with upper 20s near central MN. There is a 20% chance RH values in the upper 20s are more widespread through the rest of MN into Red River Valley.
Overlap of highest winds and lowest RH values currently looks to be within the Red River Valley, with around a 20% chance to see critical fire weather conditions here late morning through early afternoon.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, with VFR CU (6000-10000ft agl) primarily during daytime/peak heating periods. There are some rain showers moving over north central ND and so far have been remaining northwest of KDVL. There is still a low chance (20%) for one of these showers to pass near KDVL through 12Z.
South-southeast winds remain around or above 12kt through the TAF period for most locations, with gusts around 25kt at times mainly in eastern ND and KTVF during the daytime period Thursday. The chances for wind gusts 30kt or higher is still low at this time. A low level jet is already building across eastern ND and should remain in place through sunrise across eastern ND and far northwest MN (KTVF). This will result low level wind shear (30-40kt)
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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