textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread weather impacts are not expected through this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 911 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

No changes were made to the forecast, with sentiments in previous Update and Discussion still valid.

The sprinkles referred to in previous Update are diminishing as they enter into the James and Sheyenne River Valleys. Will maintain dry forecast for now.

UPDATE Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Mid level cloud covers continues to advance very slowly eastward into the RRV and this eastward advance will continue today. Continue to monitor the weak radar returns in central ND north of BIS and they are weakening as they move ESE. So will watch further to see if any sprinkles are needed to be added in parts of the fcst area in between DVL and Valley City. Clear and cold though in northwest MN with very dry airmass and temps well into the teens.

..Synopsis

500 mb flow shows upper low near Sioux City IA and moisture rotating northward thru S Wisconsin and southern MN and mostly rain as ptype, with some upper ridging over ND, then another upper low in northern Washington state with a 500 mb jet into southern Alberta into central Saskatchewan. Withing this Canadian part of the 500 mb jet are a couple of short waves that is providing light precipitation the next 24-48 hours from Calgary to Saskatoon/Regina areas. Locally though, upper ridge north of upper low keeping our area dry with a dry surface east wind. As upper low slowly moves east and upper ridge north of it breaks down today mid and high clouds will advance east thru the fcst area. Wednesday will see a short wave move into Calgary area and then ENE thru central Canada and the southern edge of this wave will help generate patches of light precipitation very late tonight and into Wednesday evening, with light rain the ptype based on temperatures. Amounts light trace to a tenth, higher values Lake of the Woods area.

Thursday thru Sunday will see a zonal 500 mb flow along the Intl border with likely periods of mid and high level cloud cover. Precipitation chances are low, sub 15 pct. Even looking into next week, precipitation chances increase a little but airmass remains on the warmer side so wintry impacts prior to Thanksgiving Day look minimal.

Lots of uncertainty at the very long ranges of the extended in the day 10-15 period specifically. Long range pattern has indicated colder air, but to what degree, and also will there be any snowfall in associated with colder air moving in. 00z long range ensembles, esp ECMWF, backing off of a bit, with one shot of colder than normal temps just after Thanksgiving then core of cold air settling back northwest. Way to early to see if any travel concerns exist for the days after Thanksgiving at this stage.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR thru the period with a gradual increase in mid level cloud cover into the RRV and eventually MN thru the day. May take all day for BJI as they remain in a very dry airmass. Winds today generally light under 10 kts, turning from more east to south- southeast as the day progresses. Overcast mid cloud deck anticipated Tues night with south wind 5-10 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.