textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

-There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, night, and into early Wednesday morning. Afternoon main hazards would be large hail to size of golf balls, tornadoes, and gusts to 60 mph. For tonight into Wednesday morning, main hazards would be very strong winds to 80 mph, line-embedded brief tornadoes, and hail to the size of quarters. There is also a flash flood risk tonight. -Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon climb into the upper 80s to low and mid 90s, highest within the Red River Valley. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Red River Valley this afternoon. Those working outside or exercising in directly sunlight or those sensitive to heat will experience impacts.

-There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon east of the Red River.

UPDATE

Issued at 1132 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A couple of updates to the forecast and messaging this morning.

1) Potentially earlier severe weather:

Latest trends in satellite show building cumulus field near an effective warm/moist front advecting northward into northeast ND and northwest MN. There have been several CAMs in 12Z runs of sustained convective development amid this area. The air mass that would be feeding convection is composed of rich low level moisture concurrent with daytime heating owing to moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg to 3000 J/kg. This will also be concurrent with overall cloud layer effective shear around 30-45kt for organized convection, including supercells. This would bring large hail to the size of golf balls to the forefront of hazards with this activity.

Additionally, proximity to the effective warm front would allow for relatively better low level shear, increasing chance for tornadoes given supercellular structure (and would be further locally enhanced if robust supercell develops and stays discrete).

Should this occur, severe risk would be much earlier for northeast ND and northwest MN as early as 2PM. This activity may linger through much of the afternoon before moving into Canada - with eventual QLCS / squall line still expected to move into eastern ND from central ND later this evening bringing its own, second round of severe weather. Very strong winds with potentially line-embedded brief tornadoes remain the main hazards with this evening severe risk.

2) Heat Advisory Red River Valley today

Latest trends in observations as well as guidance supports the potential for heat-related impacts. Heat indices nearing or just touching 100 F combined with wet-bulb globe temperatures into the upper 70s as well as Heat Risk of Moderate to Major (levels 2 and 3 out of 4) within the Red River Valley pushed the need for an Advisory. This also bolsters the previous messaging of potential heat-related impacts this afternoon.

UPDATE... Issued at 701 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Warm front is lifting north/northwest is at 10z was located from near Lisbon to just south/east of Fargo up toward Fosston to Waskish. Scattered t-storms continue to develop on the edge of this warm front as it moves north, with new development taking place now near TRF and Fosston to Red Lake. Did update pops for this as the chc of storms farther south in west central MN has ended. Would expect chance of storms to exit 12z-14z.

Otherwise little change in SPC outlooks for today and Wednesday and overall thinking from previous AFD is valid.

..Wednesday's Severe Potential

Much of Wednesday's severe risk is dependent on how Tuesday/Wednesday morning evolves. With that said, the main upper trough tied to the upper low across Canada will swing through providing stronger forcing by afternoon. Potential for a spicy day does exist given the stronger mid-upper level winds, especially if instabilty is able to recover.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 701 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

I kept a lot from the previous 06z TAFs including approximate timing of line of storms moving in from the west this evening. I pushed timing back about 1 hour at DVL, FAR and GFK but maintained the prob30 and severe wind gust. That time will be fine tuned I am sure by 18z TAFs. Until then outside of some AC this morning in NW MN a day with some high clouds and maybe high based CU. Winds becoming southeast all areas 15-30 kts...lower speeds BJI.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-027- 029-030-039-049-052-053. MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007- 029-030-040.