textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- On and off Lake Effect snow southeast of Lake of the Woods the next few days. 1-3 inches of snow is possible for places from Baudette to Big Falls

- Snow Friday night into Saturday across far southeast North Dakota with a 20 percent chance of more than 3 inches.

- Below average temperatures continue into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 936 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A deck of clouds is pushing down from Canada, otherwise its quiet here. There could be a few flurries/periods of light snow under this stratus deck, but observations show they are very few and far between. No major changes to the going forecast at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 554 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Big clearing area has surged south clearing out the solid stratocu deck. In its wake is patchy cloud cover moving south from Manitoba. So sky cover today variable from sunshine to cloudy.

..Friday night-Saturday snow

00z and incoming 06z data is showing a slight south shift in snow with probs for 1, 2 and 3 inch snowfall a bit lower than it was showing Wednesday for the Friday night period. Main band of snow will quickly develop southeast Friday from SW ND into central and southeast SD into northwest Iowa and southwest MN and intensify Friday night in that area as 850-700 mb warm advection and frontogenetical forcing increases in a narrow zone in that area. Friday night into Saturday, mainly morning, will see much weaker forcing spread east on north side of southeast moving upper wave with light snow into the colder air mass into SE ND. NBM snow probs indicate for more than 1 inches, 25 pct Fargo to 60 pct Forman ND, north of Fargo-Fergus Falls tapers off to single digits. Probs for more than 2 inches fall off to 10 pct Fargo to 40 pct Forman ND and fall off even more for more than 3 inches (advisory range) with 20 pct Forman and 5 pct Fargo.

So at this time this snow system should not lead to advisory headlines, unless a higher end, low percentage snowfall occurs.

Will maintain some very low pops 15-16s for light snow this period as well per NBM up to Grand Forks, but may well see those pops continue to drop. Either way north of Fargo any snowfall to be non-impactful. Fortunately as well with sfc low well to our south in Kansas into Missouri Saturday we have a light pressure gradient and winds will not play a role in causing any impacts due to blowing/drifting of new or old snow in southeast ND or west central MN.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 554 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

With this big clearing push southward, this will actually make cloud forecasts more challenging with areas of clear sky mixed in with patches of stratocu moving thru of varying cloud base heights. Likely the case into tonight as well. NW winds today 10-18 kts becoming light and variable tonight.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.