textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms today into early evening. Risk of small hail and possible funnel clouds.

- Growing signal for strong to severe storms this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

More showers starting to bubble up in northwestern MN, and from the looks of cloud phase satellite loop, could produce a few lightning strikes here shortly. There is some surface vorticity in that area, so will have to watch for some funnel activity as the afternoon goes on. Otherwise lightning looks to be the main threat, mainly in northwestern MN through this afternoon and evening but a few stray cells could get into the Red River Valley.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Surface low and 500 mb was located right near Pembina ND at 09z. These lows will move east-southeast to near Bemidji by 18z and then toward Duluth by 00z. As the low moves east winds at the sfc will turn northwest then north thru E ND/RRV into the 12-22 kt range. Convective temps in the mid to upper 60s along with plenty of moisture in the 950 to 800 mb layer will result in scattering of showers and t-storms across the area today into early evening. With upper low moving thru NW MN could see some scary looking clouds today / funnels. Maybe small hail as well.

Messaging for the weekend into early next week remains the same, but did change late weekend to just weekend as Day 4 (Saturday) SPC 15pct severe did move a tad east into western fcst area. Sunday - Monday period looks like the higher severe risk but this all depends on position of upper ridge to the east and upper low to the west and surface boundaries, jet that will be over the area.

UPDATE Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving across northwest and west central Minnesota tonight. A few storms could bring small hail to parts of the area; however, widespread strong to severe storms are not expected. Look for lows to fall into the 50s overnight in most areas.

..Weekend into early next week severe potential

The synoptic ingredients typical for producing severe storms in our region will be in place - and conceptually the large scale pattern supports severe storm outbreaks. Details are always the tricky part, especially where individual upper waves track and how far east the greater instability will be. There does remain some uncertainty with exactly how amplified the large scale pattern will be and this will influence those details.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

MVFR ceilings starting to break up in a few spots, but others are staying around 1500 ft. Scattered showers developing along and east of the Red River, and most of the high resolution models increase the coverage as the afternoon goes on. Some of the showers could intensify and produce lightning, so have prob30 groups for all but KDVL for a period this afternoon. Ceilings should see some improvement, rising from MVFR to VFR later this evening, with a more mid level deck as we move into tomorrow morning. Winds that are gusting up to 20 kts at times this afternoon will decrease during the afternoon and evening, eventually becoming light and variable at most locations during the second half of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.