textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled week ahead. Shower and thunderstorm chances spread east Tuesday into Wednesday, then again Friday into Saturday.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening over the Devils Lake Basin. - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening over eastern North Dakota and the Red River valley.

..Severe Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday

Heading into Wednesday, the H5 upper low moves slightly further to the east, thus bringing our axis of instability further into eastern North Dakota. Where it ends up will depend on a number of factors; however, there will be another boundary pushing to the southeast later Wednesday afternoon. This will serve to provide additional lift and forcing, further supporting thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Initiation timing is also a bit uncertain at this time, mainly because there could be remnant showers ongoing during the morning hours and limiting daytime heating. The environment will be supportive of severe storms as MLCAPE climbs to near 2000 J/Kg and lapse rates remain strong. Low to mid level shear will be located close to the boundary once more; however, better forcing is expected as the reinforcing boundary pushes to the southeast during the afternoon and evening. Current storm mode favors hybrid clusters, followed by the potential for upscale growth into line segments and/or QLCS. Once more, soundings support all hazards.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Mainly VFR through the period with some thunderstorms across eastern North Dakota mainly impacting DVL and GFK after 18z. highest confidence is in DVL from 22-02z with shouldering shra/tsra chances on either side of that window. Winds generally 10-15kts from the SE with a few gusts to 25kts but widespread gusts over 30kts outside of thunderstorms appear unlikely. CIGS east of the river remaining VFR through west into ND could occasionally drop to MVFR in thunderstorms/rain.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.