textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather into this evening from Baudette to Wadena, where RH values drop to below 20 percent.

- Critical fire weather conditions as winds increase tomorrow across southeastern North Dakota and portions of west central and northwest Minnesota. A fire weather watch is in effect for Wednesday afternoon.

- Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Thursday along and east of the Red River. Main hazards are 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

..Marginal risk Thursday

Probabilities from the ensemble for over 500 J/kg of surface based CAPE are around 80 to 90 percent in a narrow band ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. While chances for getting to 1000 J/kg or above are lower, only around 40 percent, there will be some very good deep layer bulk shear at 40 to 50 kts. Much will depend on how showers and a few elevated storms play out Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Still, high enough chance to include a mention for Marginal risk Thursday afternoon. Hail up to 1 inch and winds to 60 mph will be the main threat, but with the boundary in the area can't completely rule out a quick tornado spin up.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail through much of the period at all TAF sites. High clouds will start to increase later tonight into Wednesday ahead of our next system, which will bring rain chances into the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds remain out of the south to southeast through the TAF period. Look for a gradual increase in winds tonight into Wednesday, with gusts approaching 25 knots by mid morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NDZ049-052-053. MN...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for MNZ017-024-028>032-040.