textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog will continue through the overnight hours reducing visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less.

- There is a chance for freezing rain again Monday afternoon and Monday night over west central Minnesota, which may result in slick travel during the evening commute.

- A strong system may develop into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest next weekend, and some scenarios bring a chance for significant travel impacts to parts of the region. There are still a wide range of possible tracks, thus those planning travel should monitor the forecast for updates.

UPDATE

Issued at 924 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Reports of freezing drizzle have become sparse so the Winter Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire. Dense fog should continue to expand through the overnight hours and will likely last through the morning. For now, the advisory has been expanded to include Barnes and Cass Counties and will likely need to be expanded further south to include all of eastern North Dakota. We will be awaiting further observations before expanding there. It is unclear how far east the fog will get, so for now no Minnesota counties have been included. Warm air advection needs to continue over northwest Minnesota to get the right environment for dense fog. For now, expect patchy areas of dense fog in northwest Minnesota with the potential for expansion overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Freezing drizzle appears to be becoming more sporadic as warm air advection moves eastward. It appears increasingly likely that the Winter Weather Advisory will be able to be cancelled early in eastern North Dakota, but given sporadic observations ongoing, it is being kept to air on the safe side.

Dense fog continues west of the Red River Valley and will likely expand overnight as warmer temperatures take hold over our snowpack. Once the Winter Weather Advisory is let go, it is likely to be replaced by a Dense Fog Advisory, although how far east to take it we will need to see where it ends up by then before making that decision. In any case, impacts will continue to be tied to fog and freezing drizzle for the remainder of the evening.

..Winter storm potential next weekend

There is strong consensus on a larger scale trough developing over the central Rockies and moving across the central/northern US, with a negatively titled axis leading to a Colorado-low type pattern development in the lee of the Rockies. There is still high run-run variability in the evolution of this trough pattern and eventual surface low track/timing.

A majority of ensemble members favor scenarios that keep the strongest portion of the system and low track far enough to our south and southeast, limiting impacts in eastern ND/northwest MN. In those scenarios the drier/northern portion of the larger scale trough dominates. While there could still be an arctic front passage or mid level low dropping out of Canada, impacts are less pronounced and the probability for warning impacts would be much lower.

However, there are scenarios/ensemble members that deepen the low farther to the northwest placing our CWA near an inverted trough axis/deformation zone. These allow for the potential for moderate to heavy snow rates/totals over parts of our CWA (varying locations/amounts). The northern low position also would also allow for stronger gradient and winds, bringing the potential for blizzard conditions. The more impactful scenarios are in the minority (10% chance) and at this range a lot can change. Still, it is worth monitor trends with this system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Dense fog will continue through the overnight hours, particularly in eastern North Dakota, bringing visibility down to IFR and LIFR. This should improve after 12z tomorrow, but the low ceilings that are ongoing right now will keep conditions IFR to LIFR. Guidance keeps this through pretty much the entire day tomorrow with eventual improvements towards the end of the TAF period very late. Freezing rain may get close to FAR tomorrow afternoon and evening, but the bulk of guidance keeps this well southeast of the TAF site.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Monday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Monday for MNZ001>004-007.