textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a medium chance for thunderstorms early next week. Potential exists for strong to severe storms on Monday over portions of southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 717 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Low pressure was just west of Rugby at 09z and moving northeast. Bulk of the rain is north of the border, but there is an area of numerous showers moving thru northwest and north central MN producing 0.20 to 0.40 inch from Detroit Lakes area northeast toward Bemidji. More drizzle and low clouds over the RRV from Fargo and north with last area of showers moving thru DVL basin. Cloudy this morning for most areas with gradual clearing this aftn. Winds will turn northwest and increase to 15-30 mph over eastern North Dakota into the Red River valley by early afternoon as the low reaches Winnipeg area. Wind shift to the northwest will take place late today/evening east of the valley. And along this cold front some t-storm activity is possible in the warm sector east of the valley in NW/WC Minnesota, especially if any clearing occurs. Dew points today will be in the low 70s today east of the cold front. Potential for 1500-2000 j/kg MU CAPE 21z in the area from Bemidji to Wadena.

..Severe Potential Early Next Week

As another stronger wave propagates through Canada greater instability will advect into the region, ahead of a cold front. Multiple scenarios exist regarding how this will evolve, including strength and timing differences, which will ultimately decide on storm coverage and intensity - severe potential. ML/AI guidance indicate a signal for severe storms Monday-Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Expansive stratus is lingering over much of eastern ND and northwest MN (IFR to MVFR) with some pockets of improvement in southeast ND and west central MN. Low pressure and a frontal zone are pushing east, and as daytime warming continues this stratus layer should trend towards VFR in the west and south through the afternoon/early evening. Stratus is more likely to linger in northwest MN through the entire TAF period, while northeast ND may see MVFR stratus fill back in late tonight as surface high pressure slides over the region after 08Z through mid morning. All guidance favors IFR rebuilding back into northwest MN during that same period. Where skies are able to remain clear and if winds become light, there may be a window for fog development Sunday morning. Due to low confidence in persistent clearing or winds going calm I held off on fog introduction (will be monitored).

Winds are shifting to the west and northwest behind the front this afternoon, increasing above 12kt. Occasional gusts to 25kt can't be ruled out if there are more consistent breaks/clearing areas this afternoon. Winds should diminish with sunset and building high pressure.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.