textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain chances through tonight with more widespread rain Monday north of HWY 2.

- Dry and windy to end the week bringing enhanced fire weather weather conditions.

- Scattered frost/freeze will be likely on various mornings late this week/next weekend.

..Synopsis

There are a few features of note dominating the steering flow across CONUS.A deepening PV anomaly in the PNW merging with the remnants of Rachel in the desert SW over the next day. This will develop into a cutoff/upper low over the four corners region by Tuesday night with a strong 120kt+ jet streak arcing NE into the Great Lakes atop an upper level ridge that will push northeast out of Mexico into the Lower Mississippi basin in the wake of the remnants of Isaias. With this, ejecting shortwaves will quickly move through the developing SW flow aloft into the Dakotas overnight tonight and into Tuesday bring ample forcing for rain (mainly along the intl border). Through the later half of the week the cutoff low begins to eject east with the AI ENS guidance showing decent agreement with timing of the wave but slight differences in its track and potential interaction with a wave moving south through the Canadian prairies by Thursday. Overall the interaction looks to favor any more robust QPF to our east into the Great Lakes but there remain scenarios where we still see measurable QPF, those are not the favored outcome anymore however. Behind this wave will be a notable cool down with 850mb temps well below 0C with differences then arising into next weekend regarding the evolution of the synoptic pattern.

- Rain tonight through Monday night

While PWAT's will only marginally increase over the next 24 hours from the current 1.1" to around 1.3" forcing via isentropic ascent and 850mb WAA along with transient vorticity advection from the remnants of Rachel will race northeast. The main window for heavier rates will be from 12z Monday to 06z Tuesday along and north of HWY 2. Nearly all of the area has a greater than 50% chance for over a tenth on an inch except in the far south with areas north of HWY 2 seeing upwards of a 40% chance for over half an inch. Given very weak upright instability this should be more of a cool season type stratiform rain with only occasional embedded lightning.

- Fire Weather

Later in the week as the cutoff/upper low moves northeast into the midwest and the southeast moving Canadian wave interact, a cold front will swing through the Dakotas with some chances for rain Thursday into Friday, though more than a tenth to quarter inch looks unlikely at this point. Behind this cold front comes a drier airmass with MinRH Friday into the weekend looking to fall into the 30s if not 20s percent range. Between the Canadian wave and a building thermal ridge across MT/WY will be enhanced northerly low level flow with resulting surface winds of 20-30mph. The question is do the strong winds and low RH ever overlap and are fuels even favorable for quick fire spread? These question will be answered in the coming days but enhanced fire weather for at least one or two days Thursday to Sunday seems probable.

- Cool Down

While any fire weather will likely steal the attention should it occur this first real shot of Canadian air for the season should bring morning lows in the lower 30s and upper 20s late this week into next weekend. Should this happen it would end the growing season and any frost/freeze headlines. Taking an initial peak it may be too windy for frost formation most mornings so it could become a pattern of freeze warning or nothing should it get cold enough to warrant headlines.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

IFR conditions with low clouds remain the prevailing forecast for all TAF sites through the period with occasional improvements to MVFR up to 1500ft. Showers will be on and off through the period at DVL, GFK, and TVF with a variety of TEMPO/PROB30 used at those sites to communicate timing. Winds are hit and miss today with FAR the only site that is really consistently gusting this morning but GFK and DVL have shown some ability to gust so kept gusts to 25kts at all 3 sites through the evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.