textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions across west central and northwestern Minnesota this afternoon with relative humidity values approaching 15 to 20%.

- At least near critical fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend with a 20 percent chance for critical fire weather conditions on Friday.

..Tomorrow and beyond fire weather concerns

Similar RH values are expected for tomorrow afternoon, and there will be more of a pressure gradient as a surface trough moves through. While winds look higher than today, there is only around 30 kts to mix down and not much in the way of pressure rises. The 50th percentile of NBM has some 25 mph sustained winds in east central ND, but may be due to the NBM's bias in that area. The HREF joint probability for winds over 25 mph and RH values under 25 percent doesn't have much. Dropping the winds threshold down to 20 mph gives us some low chances for critical fire weather conditions on the MN side, around 20 percent. Definitely could see critical to near critical fire conditions for tomorrow afternoon, but not confident enough to go with a watch at this point. Still breezy into Saturday, but slightly cooler temps should bring higher RH values and there will be a low chance for showers. Less wind and similar RH values for Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR through the period with CIGS remaining above 5kft over the next 24 hours. Gusts have mostly ended for the day but a few areas will remain in the 15 to 20 mph range for the next hour or two. Winds flipping S to SW for all by midnight and swing back to NW by the afternoon tomorrow at 10-15 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph. Winds mainly picking up 16-18z average confidence in that as it seems to just be following the diurnal mixing curve.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.