textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Below average temperatures this weekend.

- Early to mid next week...active period with stronger system arriving Tuesday, with a 70 percent chance of at least advisory level impacts.

UPDATE

Issued at 632 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Area of light snow extending east-southeast toward Fargo. This overall is a bit farther north than most operational models have shown. But it is also running into a drier airmass and snow is starting to develop in central SD which will become the main snow area heading into the afternoon. Will watch pops but may need to expand pops a bit more east.

..Tuesday system

In our never clipper train, we do have a stronger system that has more moisture with it and comes onshore from the Pacific into west central British Columbia Monday and quickly develops surface low in west central Alberta and tracks southeast along a likely baroclnic zone separating temps above freezing from temps in the 20s and teens. 850 mb low, 700 mb low and sfc low development Monday afternoon into Monday night will occur quickly as it moves into southern Saskatchewan, with a strenghtening 850 mb jet of 50 kts east of the 850/sfc low creating a strong warm advection zone and sufficient lift for a band of moderate to potentially heavy snowfall. This would be just north of the sfc/850 mb low and its track. All models and ensembles from Canadian global, ECMWF, GFS, ICON, AI models are in good agreement that this system will impact a large part of our forecast area with WPC indicating at least a 70 pct chance of advisory level impacts thru a large part of the area...focus of these impacts though are still not as clear cut as would hope. But that is to be expected this far out. Operational 00z GFS is a tad farther north and NBM is a bit farther north than 00z ECMWF operational and ensemble suite with GFS highest probs of more than 3 inches snow DVL-GFK-BJI while ECMWF a bit more northwest-southeast focus from Minot to Fargo. 00z ECMWF 12/4 Extreme Fcst Index (EFI) shows a strong signal for impacts with snow in that area from southeast Sask thru north central into east central and southeast MN into parts of west central MN. Wind to be a factor, though if low takes the path above, then highest winds will be in the cold advection west and southwest of the low in SW ND into central SD. But does look like a period of north winds using ECMWF and GFS ensembles of 30 kts Tues night...esp 06z-12z Wed period. So it is possible that snowfall amounts may be in advisory impacts, but if we do get stronger winds then it may be enough to push overall impacts into warning range. (10 percent chance).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Starting off this morning with a mix bag of MVFR and VFR. Areas of MVFR cigs continue to develop in southern Manitoba and streak southeast thru NE ND and NW MN. Other areas cloud bases lower end VFR with mix of MVFR. So for most of today a mix of MVFR and low end VFR cloud bases. Light NNE wind turning north 4-8 kts. Should see better clearing tonight and MVFR stratocu should clear out as airmass dries out at the 850 mb layer.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.