textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds up to 50 mph are possible just after midnight. Reduced visibility within snow showers may arise at times, particularly in the eastern Red River Valley.

- Multiple chances for wintry weather over the next week but predictability and confidence remain low beyond Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 750 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Wintry mix of light rain and snow is currently falling over portions of northwest MN, and will continue to do so until around midnight. With rain falling, and eventual temperatures forecast to rapidly dip well below freezing overnight, there is potential for residual wet roads to refreeze. This scenario is uncertain due to unknowns about how much liquid is falling, and how much will reside on roads prior to falling into the 20s around midnight. Otherwise, some light accumulation up to 1 inch is possible, particularly from Baudette to near Waskish.

Otherwise, winds are becoming increasingly gusty out of the north, although the cold front is lagging some behind this initial shift and increase in north winds.

The cold front is currently observed to be passing through the Winnipeg metro area, with radar confirming elongated snow showers in linear-type features. These are likely the beginnings of HCRs that will accompany the cold front. Satellite imagery also confirmed the presence of HCRs trailing behind the cold front. This lends credence in at least light snow/flurries to overspread our area behind the cold front. It remains unclear how high snow rates may get within these HCRs, but at this time overall moisture content for the degree of forcing looks to be meager. There is still a strong signal in high resolution guidance (namely NSSL's CAM guidance) in HCRs to be present behind the front during period of cold air advection before waning between 7a - Noon.

These HCR-type snow showers will bring localized visibility reductions, potentially under 1 mile at times, coupled with gusty winds up to 45 mph within the Red River Valley.

There continues to be high confidence in mitigated blowing snow impacts. This is due to a snowpack incapable of being blown around after experiencing Thursday's well above freezing temperatures to melt/ripen the snowpack, followed by refreezing of the snowpack as temperatures crash well below freezing behind the front. This will mitigate overall potential for impacts from blowing snow/reduced visibility outside of HCRs.

..TONIGHT WIND/PRECIPITATION

A cold front will propagate southward through the region, bringing with it colder temperatures and strong wind gusts. Associated with this will be a swath of precipitation on the backside of the front. Because max temperatures aloft are above 0C just ahead of the front, there is the potential for rain/freezing rain to initially fall, but this is expected to change over to snow fairly quickly with the strength of cold air advection. Pressure rises on the backside of the front approach 2 mb/hr aiding in a solid period where the pressure gradient force should contribute to sustained winds at least 20 mph, with winds in the valley enhanced to 25-35 mph. There is the potential for areas of reduced visibility due to falling snow and blowing snow table outputs support it (50-70% at most but only in the worst conditions). It is highly unlikely the worst case scenario arises as coverage of snowfall rates exceeding 0.50"/hour are unlikely and the bulk of snowfall should be further east from the wind. For this reason, expect maybe some visibility reductions, but most will just see impacts from the gusty winds alone. Snowfall accumulations should remain fairly light, with generally at most an inch in the Lake of the Woods region and below an inch elsewhere.

Post-frontal HCRs may develop as well and contribute to visibility reductions within them so long as they are precipitating. We tend to get HCRs frequently with these southward propagating cold fronts with arctic air, but impacts are largely derived from if they are precipitation. Once again, if they precipitate, then there may be brief reductions of visibility to whiteout, but for the most part should avoid more significant impacts. Additionally, coverage has a low predictability horizon, so a Wind Advisory was opted for in this case because that will be the primary impact unless more extensive blowing snow arises. The current snowpack we have is highly unlikely to contribute to any visibility reductions as even the worst case scenario winds are only a 50% shot at breaking crust.

Impacts will diminish through the mid to late morning as winds diminish in intensity.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 750 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Impacts to aviation are forecast this TAF period from lowered ceilings, gusty winds, and intermittent visibility reductions.

A cold front moves through the area tonight bringing gusty north winds 20-35kt, highest at KGFK and KFAR, after 04Z. These gusty winds last through at least 12Z before gradually tapering off during the day Friday.

This cold front will also bring lowered MVFR to at times IFR ceilings. Period in which these lowered ceilings are forecast is generally 03Z-15Z. There is uncertainty in how long ceilings linger beyond 15Z, especially at sites like KDVL, KTVF, and KBJI.

Intermittent snow showers are also forecast between 04Z-12Z, reducing visibility between 4-6SM, at times perhaps to 1/2SM-1SM before 09Z. Visibilities lower than 1SM from snow showers is a low confidence scenario, however. There is potential in snow showers lingering until 18Z - again there is low confidence in how long snow showers will linger into the morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory until noon CST Friday for NDZ008-016-027-029-030- 039-053. MN...Wind Advisory until noon CST Friday for MNZ001>004-007-029.