textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing drizzle may impact travel conditions Saturday afternoon and evening. There is a 30% chance for advisory level impacts.

- Multiple chances for wintry weather over the next week but confidence remains low beyond this weekend.

..Freezing drizzle possible today into tonight

Baroclinic zone and low level moisture will push into our western counties as the surface high moves east. Will take a while to saturate with the southeasterly winds recirculating dry air, but should eventually get the lower stratus that is over western and central ND into our area. Model soundings continue to show a favorable profile for freezing drizzle, and it does seem there will be rising motion in the saturated layer. There is still a gap down at the surface though, so not super confident in how widespread freezing drizzle will be. The HREF doesn't have much in the way of a signal at all, and while the NBM has some FZRA/SN probabilities today into tonight across our north, it doesn't have any probabilities for any accumulating ice. At this point, confident enough to keep the mention of freezing drizzle in the forecast, but not confident enough for headlines at this point. Will see how much reaches the ground and is impactful.

...Additional weak systems bringing precipitation this coming week...

With split flow becoming zonal over our area and then southwesterly, there is plenty of potential for a few weak shortwaves to come through and bring some snow or even mixed precipitation. However, with split flow there is a lot of uncertainty and exact timing and impacts are unknown at this point. ECMWF EFI does not have a lot of signal for precipitation, although it does have one for warmer than average temperatures. Probabilistic WSSI has 5 to 10 percent chance for minor/advisory level impacts late Monday and again Thursday/Friday, but not high enough to include any messaging at this time, just something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Aviation impacts at TAF sites through 06Z Sunday are driven by lowered ceilings and potential for light icing from freezing drizzle.

High confidence in lowered ceilings in the MVFR to IFR categories at all sites by 00Z Sunday. There is a medium chance (60%) in LIFR conditions at sites like KDVL generally after 10Z.

There is also a medium (30%) chance for freezing drizzle leading to light icing at TAF sites like KDVL, KGFK, KTVF, and KBJI. Timing for this potential is after 12Z at KDVL, and after 18Z at the other aforementioned sites.

Winds will generally increase out of the south 10-20kt after 12Z.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.