textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the overnight. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats.

..Scattered Severe Storms This Evening and Overnight

Instability is slowly building this afternoon as warmer temps and higher moisture levels work into the area. Dew points have increased into the lower to middle 60s in most areas, with SBCAPE values generally in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range early this afternoon. Model soundings show the potential for 2500 to 3000 J/Kg by early evening. Mid level shear is present, but unidirectional above 700 mb, leading to straight hodographs and a continued support for splitting supercells. It is worth noting, however, that given the tendency to split, these supercells are also likely to interact and eventually form clusters. The primary hazard during the afternoon and early evening will be large hail to the size of golf balls, with a low chance for an isolated tornado. Due to relatively weak low level shear, tornado risk will be dependent on longer lived supercells that avoid interaction with nearby cells. With DCAPE in the 1100 to 1400 J/Kg range, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph are supported late this afternoon through mid evening.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A few light showers remain in the vicinity of KTVF, with VFR conditions prevailing at all TAF sites this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are being observed at KDVL and KFAR, with KGFK becoming mostly sunny. Will maintain a PROB30 this evening due to expected thunderstorm development. A cold front will bring scattered thunderstorms, which could become severe and potentially produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. This could impact all sites from west to east starting late this afternoon before moving off to the east late this evening and overnight. Winds are generally expected to be near 10 knots outside of thunderstorms through Tuesday morning before increasing heading into mid morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.