textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected.

..Synopsis

Split flow is aloft is in place across the US with dry/war west- northwest flow over the Northern Plains as the more active northern jet stream and storm track remains in Canada. This is resulting in above average temperatures (close to 2 standard deviations from seasonal normals for highs) and dry/breezy conditions.

There is a trough that deepens Tuesday-Wedesnay that brings a brief period of stronger north-northwest flow aloft and a quick moving shortwave trough and cold front. The track of organized forcing is east of our CWA with the ma and deeper dry air preceding the arrival even the subset of ensemble members that show rain are very light (less than 0.1"). The consensus in ensembles with that system is for no measurable precipitation (may remain virga or sprinkles). The main result will be a brief return to seasonable temperatures Wednesday into Friday.

There is a strong signal in all ensembles than upper level ridging and anomalous heights/temperatures aloft (NAEFS percentiles 90% or higher/SD 1.5-2) by next weekend and early the next week. The net result will be continued dry conditions and a return to above average temperatures that my extend well beyond the end of the 7 day period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions continue. Models like the HRRR try to bring some IFR ceilings into northwestern MN which could clip KTVF or KBJI. However, satellite and obs upstream in Canada are not nearly as widespread with the clouds and mostly in the 2000-6000 ft range. Will keep even the MN airports VFR throughout the period. Low level wind shear will continue for a bit longer tonight as west to northwest winds above the deck remain around 40 kts, but that should decrease by morning. Winds will become light and variable later during the day tomorrow, then start to pick up out of the south but still mostly below 12 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.

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