textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely Monday in northwest Minnesota. Near critical conditions may develop in southeast North Dakota if gusty winds align with low relative humidity.

- Additional chances for near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected through mid-week.

- An unsettled pattern brings rain and thunderstorm chances to the region Thursday and rain and snow chances Friday into next weekend.

..FIRE WEATHER

Large scale warm temperatures through the week combined with limited moisture return are expected to create near critical to critical fire weather conditions through the week.

For tomorrow, southerly winds are expected to increase with sustained winds generally between 20-30 mph, with occasional gusts to 40 mph by late morning/early afternoon as a strong southerly jet propagates east. Moisture return from southerly winds is expected to be minimal with dewpoints ranging in the low to mid 30s, allowing for relative humidity values to approach 20% by mid to late afternoon. The maxima of the jet is expected to be over northwest Minnesota when peak mixing will occur, so the expectation is for critical conditions (low RH and high wind gusts) to mainly remain in northwest Minnesota. Having said that, critical conditions could spread westward into eastern North Dakota if winds align with low relative humidity. At a minimum, expect near critical conditions to develop in southeast North Dakota. Towards the mid to late afternoon, a weak cold front may bring relative humidity values up to 30-50% briefly, but a substantial wind shift of 90-150 degrees is expected behind this, so fire concerns are expected to continue.

With limited precipitation expected through the week and ridging amplifying across the Northern Plains, ERC maximums should continue to rise with HRB values indicating ongoing dead fuels. These combined with relative humidity values through the week lends to expectations that at least near critical conditions can be expected through Wednesday every afternoon with the potential to push into critical conditions on days with gustier winds. At this time, the greatest probability timeframe for that is Wednesday afternoon. While NBM relative humidities appear fairly high (25-30%), this is mainly due to limited CAM impact on NBM output and will likely fall towards more critical criteria as we get closer to mid-week. The heightened fire weather pattern will eventually end as a widespread precipitation system pushes into the region late week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Cumulus clouds are developing this afternoon with cloud bases around 2500-3500 feet. MVFR conditions may arise briefly at any TAF site if coverage is high enough, so expect at least some potential for shifts in from VFR to MVFR this afternoon. This will diminish after sunset as mixing ceases. Winds will diminish through the day today as a surface high moves overhead. As the high pushes off to the east, southerly winds will increase. Gusts should start to arise after 12z tomorrow beneath VFR conditions, with gusts between 25-35 mph expected through the morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.