textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong winter storm will impact the region Wednesday night through Thursday. There is a high chance of blizzard conditions in the northern half of the Red River Valley and northeastern North Dakota and a medium chance for blizzard conditions in southeastern North Dakota and southern Red River Valley. The probability of blizzard conditions will be driven by coverage of falling snow.

- High winds are expected to develop regardless of snowfall. Gusts as high as 70 mph are possible from Wednesday night through Thursday.

..Synopsis

Sfc high pressure is over northwest MN at 09z and moving southeast, with light south winds over eastern ND. Warm advection will occur today sfc-700 mb ahead of next system with temps by late today reaching into the 30s, with around 40 near South Dakota border. South winds increasing as well into the 15-30 mph range within the Red River valley this afternoon. Warm advection precipitation chances are mostly north of the International border but some 20-40 pops are in the forecast for parts of far northwest MN, Mainly Roseau and Warroad to Baudette where better saturation and strongest warm advection is located this aftn 18z-21z Wed period. Ptype would suggest mix of freezing rain/snow, though light amounts, and with lower end chance pops will not do any advisory at this time.

So what about Wed night into Thursday. Extensive digging in model data suggests a trend from 00z and incoming 06z model data of a consensus with a more northern low as it moves east or re- develops east tonight. Looks like sfc low will be near or just south of Regina SK at 00z Thu with a re-development of the low Grafton ND area 06z Thu period. This location and timing will keep most of the forecast area except far northwest in the milder airmass and likely above freezing temps thru 06z Thu. Also dry slot so some risk of drizzle as well. Pops for evening rain showers are present as well, with rain amounts up to 0.10 possible. Sfc low moves east thru TVF at 09z and then to near Bemidji by 12z Thu. Timing of this is a bit slower in bringing an arctic cold front south with indications of the front passing thru Grand Forks area 08z-09z and reaching Fargo just before 12z Thu. So impacts from winds and falliing snow reach far northern fcst area 06z-09z then reach far south towaard 12z. Question in regards to falling snowfall and intensity especially in southeast ND and west central MN...and this remains the most uncertain aspect of the forecast. A few inches of snow seems very likely Cooperstown-Hillsboro-Ada area north and this falling in the zone of north winds. Speaking of winds, best mixing appears 09z-15z north and 12-18z south where north winds may gust to 60 mph within the Red River valley. So with these winds will not take much falling snow to reach blizzard criteria with less than 1/4 vsby and it should last 4-6 hours. Into the trees, less wind but still enough snow and gusty winds for potential warning imapcts east of the Red River valley and north of Hwy 2, this again is mostly 12z-18z period Thursday.

The warmth on Wednesday did a huge number on the current snow pack out there and with it re-freezing it isnt going to budge so any vsby issues will have to related to falling snow at time of wind or having enough new snow to blow once it stops snowing.

No changes to the winter storm watch, and dayshift crew will exmaine data and handle webinars, DSS, and issuance of any new products.

Friday will see another wave move east from Alberta into southern Canada....reaching Manitoba Friday afternoon. Warm advection band of light snow anticipated with this. At this time snow amounts with this Friday system is not anticipated to be enough for any advisory.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

MVFR stratus is slowly beginning to erode as drier air moves into eastern ND and northwest MN, though there are still narrow bands of stratus stubbornly backbuilding from the upstream that may delay the arrival of prevailing VFR until after 8-10Z. Northwest winds are gradually decreasing below 12kt and after a brief period of lighter and variable winds, southerly flow increases Wednesday morning as low pressure builds upstream into western ND. A strong low pressure system that will eventually move over the region later Wednesday will bing with it several strong low level jets (southerly then westerly) resulting in additional periods of low level shear (40-55kt). Winds at the surface eventually shift to the northwest Wednesday evening with stronger winds developing after this TAF period.

Precipitation chances increase Wednesday evening, along with, MVFR to IFR conditions. Initially rain will be favored, with snow and blowing snow chances increasing after the current TAF period when VLIFR conditions may develop where blizzard conditions develop (best chances at KGFK and KDVL).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049- 052>054. MN...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for MNZ001>009-013>016-029.