textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures are forecast this weekend into next week. This will greatly erode existing snowpack. Snowmelt and potential for upcoming precipitation brings a medium chance for minor riverine flooding.

- Unsettled weather pattern starts today lasting into next week, bringing chances for precipitation, and perhaps a few thunderstorms. There is also a 30 percent chance for advisory level winter impacts next Friday.

..Unsettled weather pattern ahead

Ensembles continue to agree in the upper pattern remaining in this southwesterly and quasi-zonal flow regime through at least the end of the work week. While ensembles have some disagreement in synoptic evolution of shortwave troughs, there are a few periods of note that increase our relative chances for precipitation. These periods are tonight into Sunday, Tuesday, and late next work week.

For tonight/Sunday, there is a noteworthy amount of warm air in the mid layers effectively capping much available instability for more robust convection. Additionally, strongest low/mid level forcing for ascent to potentially overcome capping will remain displaced to the south and east of our area. Thus, expecting mainly scattered showers with perhaps some embedded thunder forced by vorticity advection from the heart of the shortwave trough itself.

There is still expectation of subsequent shortwave troughs to bring their own waves of instability within their warm sectors, but still more likely to be largely displaced from our area. However, convection fed by this warm sector may be within our area, introducing thunderstorms into the forecast.

Most ensemble guidance generally agrees that more significant precipitation amounts over 2 inches will remain well to our east within eastern MN into WI. Still, there is a low to medium chance for 1-2 inches within Minnesota and locations north of US Highway 2 by end of the work week.

The late week shortwave trough passage may feature cold enough air for some of its precipitation to be snow, of which may be enough to accumulate. As we inch closer to this period, ensemble guidance is starting to cluster toward a scenario that features heavy snow in the eventual system's deformation zone. This could overspread portions of our area, including accumulating snow more than 6 inches. This may also coincide with gusty winds to introduce impacts from blowing snow into this scenario.

While there is the potential for warning level impacts from accumulating snow of 6 or more inches and blowing snow, details on placement and timing remain very much unknown. This keeps chance for warning impacts around 10%, with chance for advisory impacts around 30% at this time.

...Warm temperatures and eroding snowpack brings chance for riverine flooding...

Due to the extended period of well above freezing temperatures over the next several days, confidence for a greatly eroding snowpack is high. There remains widespread frozen and/or saturated soils, with several areas still seeing standing water in open fields (as seen from webcams and satellite imagery). This lends confidence that existing water content within the snowpack will largely runoff into rivers/tributaries.

The current water content within the snowpack isn't overly high (up to 1.2 inches), and alone will likely not push rivers/tributaries into flood stage. However, the combination of this occuring with upcoming chances for additional precipitation introduce a medium chance for minor riverine flooding. Additionally, phasing of snowmelt-driven increased flow within tributaries and main stem Red River may phase with each other in the central Red River Valley.

For these reasons, additional river flood watches have been issued.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

IFR stratus continues to move north across the forecast area, with some LIFR even already appearing at KDVL. The ceilings will drop down from MVFR to IFR at KGFK and the MN airports in the next 6 hours. Some sites upstream have reported light rain or drizzle, and that will be possible on and off until early tomorrow morning. Some patchy fog is possible, although who and when will go below a mile is still in question. For now kept visibility in the 1SM range and will go lower as fog develops. Conditions should start to improve from LIFR to IFR around mid- day. A round of more showery precipitation moves in by late morning and into the afternoon, so included a prob 30 for that time period. Winds that are gusting out of the southeast over 25 kts this evening will diminish in the next few hours. Winds will shift to the southwest by the later half of the period, with some airports going northwest at 10 to 15 kts by late afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.