textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Monday: 70 percent chance of more than 1 inch of snow in far northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. 50 percent chance more than 2 inches in the same area.

- Stronger low coming in on Tuesday, with an 80 percent chance for at least minor impacts area wide, and some mixed precipitation possible in southeastern North Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Cirrus clouds continue to stream overhead, with radar filling in nicely over central ND. No real changes were made to the going forecast with this update, as the timing of the arrival of the snow to our west is the main short term forecast concern.

UPDATE Issued at 935 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

All remains quiet across the eastern ND and northwest/west central MN. Light snow associated with the next clipper is visible on radar over western and central ND. It will take the morning and part of the afternoon hours to arrive in eastern ND.

UPDATE Issued at 658 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

High clouds spreading into the E ND and soon the RRV. Mid clouds not far behind into central ND. 06z model data doesnt suggest any major issues in the forecast so far.

..Tuesday Stronger System

Still a few differences with exact track of sfc-850 mb low and zone between where temps will rise above 32F and where the are in the 20s. Canadian Global 00z and 06z Canadian Regional operational runs went farther south with low tracking southeast from saw far northeast Montana to just north of Bismarck to near Wahpeton with axis of higher snowfall Estevan SK to Minot to Fargo. Whereas the operational 00z runs of GFS and ECMWF and its 00z ensembles are a bit more north and close to previous runs with consensus track of low from east of Estevan to in between Grand Forks and Fargo and highest snow chances in that area from Bottineau to Grand Forks to Park Rapids where there is a 50-70 pct chance of more than 3 inches and 25 pct chance isolated pockets of more than 6 inches. Consensus snowfall from NBM and the GFS/ECMWF ensembles keep totals averaging 4-5 inches in this band. Track of low and 850 mb low critical as there will be a potential esp Tuesday morning for freezing rain in a zone just near or south of low track from NW into SE ND, though that icing potential diminishes in the aftn into MN. Timing of snow, looks to arrive into DVl region by 15z Tues and into RRV by 18z and eastern fcst area by 21z. Good frontogenetical forcing noted in 850 mb warm advection zone just east and northeast of low track as it moves southeast. Strongest winds and cold advection will be west and southwest of sfc low/850 mb low which places best chances for 50 mph or higher wind gusts southwest half of ND into SD. But still a period of north winds align mid and southern valley in the evening with gust 30-40 mph. But these winds dont align to where the heavier snow is forecast and is more in the area where forecast temps are to reach above 32F during the day Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Two weak systems will pass through during the TAF period, each bringing light snow. The first is currently over central ND, pushing eastward. It will arrive at KDVL late this afternoon, then pass through the Red River Valley during the evening hours. There will be a little break, before another system passes through on Monday, mostly impacting northern terminals. Ceilings will vary from VFR to start the TAF period, falling to MVFR overnight. MVFR will likely persist into Monday, but it will be a close call as ceilings will teeter on the edge of VFR at KDVL and KFAR.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.