textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain is expected through this evening over parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

- Temperatures fall back into the range of normal as we head into Wednesday, then remain near average through this weekend.

..Synopsis

Upper flow pattern supports northwest flow tonight through late Wednesday, with H5 flow turning more northerly heading into Thursday. A weak shortwave traverses the flow this evening and overnight, with a chance for light rain ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler air works into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday, bringing temperatures back into the range of normal for early to mid November. Daytime highs will be in the 30s to low 40s Wednesday and in the 30s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows fall into the teens Thursday night into Friday morning. Aside from a few scattered rain showers today, dry weather is expected to persist through much of the forecast period.

Looking down the road a bit, there is growing support for a potentially active period of weather as we head into the second half of November. This starts with a strong signal for blocking across the central CONUS and into most of the Canadian Prairies. Resultant troughs form on either side of the H5 ridge, which eventually dislodge and work eastward. Ensemble clusters are beginning to support solutions that hint at precipitation toward the very end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

An area of more organized rainfall is progressing eastwards along the US Highway 2 corridor in northeast ND and will eventually move across northwest MN. Within this, brief visibility reductions below 6sm have been reported but have not prevailed. Outside of any brief vis reductions VFR conditions are prevailing with ceilings generally 6000-8000 ft agl. Elsewhere scattered light rain showers may also move through southeast ND and west central MN, though coverage will be more limited and impacts at KFAR less certain.

Rain ends as the mid level wave moves out of the region late eventing/early morning and a cold front eventually drops south. Behind this front there is a signal in guidance for MVFR stratus to develop with northerly flow, however best chances currently are shown in north central ND towards KDVL and across parts of northwest MN. This stratus should trend towards VFR during the daytime period with gusty northerly winds Wednesday, though it is a type of pattern where MVFR stratus may linger in some areas and redevelop by the evening hours, so confidence is not as high beyond the morning period regarding trends.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.