textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

-North of Hwy 200: Snow, heavy at times, continuing today and diminishing tonight. Additional snowfall 3 to 6 inches with storm total snow of 5 to 10 inches, with locally higher amounts.

-South of Hwy 200: Snow, heavy at times, continuing today and diminishing tonight. Storm event snow of 2 to 6 inches, locally higher amounts.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Forecast on track. Most of the region has transitioned to snow. The surface low is currently near Alexandria, MN and forecast to slowly propagate east today. As the system evolves today, anticipate radar returns across the CWA to slowly diminish and become less organized through the morning hours as low level easterly flow (moisture advection) gets cut off. However, lighter snowfall rates will continue across portions of the region as the inverted trough (currently seen in radar across central North Dakota) transitions eastward.

With the winter storm warning receiving snowfall before 6am (Devils Lake area so far the highest with near a foot being reported - most areas received 2"-5" before 6am). Additional snowfall today will put most of the warning area over 6 inches.

The winter weather advisory did not receive much if any snow before 6am, and thus most of this area should remain with less than 6 inches of snow - although given the bursts of heavy snowfall rates this morning isolated areas of 6 or more inches could happen - just not widespread.

At any rate - it is important to note that impacts will be increased due to the snow being heavy and slushy.

UPDATE Issued at 450 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Sfc map at 10z shows surface low near Ortonville MN. Upper low is moving into southwest MN near Marshall. Moisture feed around this upper low does exist westward across the fcst area but over time as the upper low moves east the deeper moisture will be cutoff so that this aftn into tonight more general light snow. This light snow lasts into Thursday. In warning area highlighting the storm total 5-10 inches with locally higher amounts. Radar has shown overnight variable intensity returns indicating likely highly variable snow rates thus leading to higher than usual range of snow accumulations. Did expand the winter weather advisory southward into rest of SE ND into WC MN as rain changes to snow with potential for up to 4 inches of snow thru tonight.

..Winter Storm

Satellite displays a dynamic system this afternoon over the high plains. Strong ascent and warm air advection over the Dakotas is causing regional radar to light up with echos. Enough dry air in the column is keeping most of these returns from reaching the ground. However, this will quickly change during the late afternoon and evening hours.

As the low to our south near the SD/NE state line rapidly deepens, a strong band of frontogensis will work from south to north across our FA. Everything is in place to help fuel heavy precipitation rates, ranging from a low level jet of up to 70 knots feeding moisture into an atmospheric column that features lapse rates of up to 7 C/km. This northward lifting band will form during the evening hours, and persist much of tonight. Precipitation will start as rain, heavy at times. With instability present, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially in the southern Red River Valley into west central MN.

As temperatures fall this evening into tonight, moderate to heavy rain will transition to heavy snow. This transition will occur first near the International Border. Snowfall rates of 1+ inch per hour are forecasted within this band. Right now, the most likely area to experience 1+ inch per hour rates is along or just north of the Highway 2 corridor. Global ensembles have been locked onto the idea for the past day or so of a further south and slower storm. Current placement of the developing low, along with where we are observing pressure falls in northern NE/southern SD would seem to confirm this. Recent CAM model guidance has also fallen in line with the idea of a more southern track over the past 12 hours or so. Overnight, radar trends will need to be monitored in case another tier of counties south needs to be added to either the warning or advisory headlines.

When you combine the heavy snowfall rates with easterly winds of up to 30 mph, blizzard-like conditions are expected for at least several hours in the winter storm warning area. These visibility reductions will be strongly tied to snowfall rates. Snowfall rates will decrease in intensity Wednesday morning into the afternoon, with wandering bands of heavier snow still likely area wide. Conditions will improve Wednesday night, as snow finally lightens up. However, for areas that see significant accumulations, severe drifting snow will continue to drive impacts even if visibilities improve.

As for snowfall totals, a general 5 to 10 inches of snow is forecast for counties along and north of US Highway 2. There will be pockets that receive more then this, especially in northeastern North Dakota where the residence time of the heavy snow band looks to be a bit longer, with someone likely to see a foot of snow. One way to gauge how much snow your location will receive is before going to bed, ask yourself when you look outside, is it snowing? If you are already seeing snow at 8-11 PM, for the remainder of the event you will experience snow, and your totals will be towards the upper end of the snowfall range. If it is still raining at 11PM, that will eat into snowfall totals, so when you wake up Wednesday morning, do not be surprised if only a couple of inches have accumulated. This will particularly be true in places like Grand Forks, Hillsboro, Thief River Falls, and Bemidji. One last impact to touch on: rainfall totals just south of where we transition to snow will be quite heavy, a quarter inch or greater. If this occurs over an urban area, where ice is blocking drainages, ponding of water may occur.

Overall, this will be a dynamic system with a wide variety of impacts. Please continue to monitor the forecast, and heed any warnings and advisories that have been issued for this evening into Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Snow is expected most of the day across the area and at all TAF sites. Ceilings likely to remain below 1000 ft agl thru the day into this evening, but vsbys will vary in snowfall from 1/2SM to over 3SM at times. Winds east-northeast 10-20 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NDZ006>008- 014>016-026-027-054. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NDZ024- 028>030-038-039-049-052-053. MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ001- 004>009-013>017. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ002- 003-022>024-027>032-040.