textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with rain chances returning Wednesday and Thursday.

..Heat wave continuing and rain chances mid-week

One of the weak embedded shortwaves coming over the top of the ridge has started to produce some showers and thunderstorms in or near north central ND. SPC meso page has decent 1000 to 1500 J/kg of ML CAPE and shear around 40 kts, but with very weak forcing, and extremely warm mid-level temps, the cells that are developing are struggling. CAMs have that trend continuing with the next weak shortwave arriving later this evening, and this seems reasonable. Our northwestern counties could see a few sprinkles this afternoon and evening, but substantial precipitation will hold off until Wednesday/Thursday as NBM probabilities of at least a tenth of an inch of rain finally rise above 50 percent. ECMWF EFI continues to show a signal for heat continuing through the weekend, and NBM probabilities for temperatures over 95 degrees are over 70 percent for Wednesday. Likely will need heat headlines of some sort again Wednesday so will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Wildfire smoke continues to move through the region mainly aloft (above 10kft agl). Higher seasonal low level moisture is in place, and with light winds and at least some areas of clearing light ground fog is already beginning to form (mainly in northeast ND). Guidance favors an expansion in fog over northeast ND and parts of northwest/north central MN and impacts to visibility and ceilings become more likely at KDVL and KBJI after 08-10Z through 14Z (IFR to MVFR with a chance to LIFR). This is the type of fog/pattern where fog will tend to vary conditions wildly, and with a less consistent signal elsewhere I left mention out of KGFK, KFAR, and KTVF for now.

Surface winds should remain under 10kt through the TAF period, with highly variable wind directions as surface high pressure and several weak boundaries move through eastern ND and northwest MN.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.

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