textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Light freezing rain is expected in portions of northwest Minnesota during the early overnight period. Best chances will be around Lake of the Woods, eastern Roseau County, and northern Beltrami County.

- Winter impacts are possible Thursday into Friday as a system brings snow and wind into the area. There is a 60 percent chance for advisory level impacts or greater, especially in the Red River Valley eastward into northwest Minnesota.

UPDATE

Issued at 942 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Some UP reports are starting to crop up in the far northern Red River Valley as forcing for ascent increases. Temperatures remain above freezing, however, across northeast North Dakota so impacts should remain fairly mild up there. As you progress eastward, temperatures are above freezing but that is likely to increase as warm air advection pushes eastward. Having said that, it remains unclear how much, if they do, temperatures will get above freezing. For this reason, the current advisory works out for the locations most likely to remain below freezing, so no changes to headlines on this update.

UPDATE Issued at 648 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Skies remain mostly dry right now but that will change as the wave ejecting off of central Manitoba continues to drape warm air advection across the region. Freezing rain and snow remain expected in the eastern most counties of our CWA overnight with a glaze of ice expected.

..Winter Impacts Possible Thursday and Friday

A two-part system will bring a chance for snow and blowing snow Thursday into Friday. Upper flow turns northerly on Thursday, with light to moderate snow expected in association with the H5 shortwave. At this time, there is a 60 percent chance for at least advisory impacts, especially as we head into Friday. Gusty northwest winds on Thursday will shift to more of a north to northwest direction on Friday, with sustained winds ranging from 25-30 mph and gusts well into the 40-50 mph range. While blowing snow will be possible, the highest impacts are expected where strong winds and falling snow coincide. Visibility will be reduced where this occurs, bringing a moderate to high potential for travel impacts Thursday night into Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Not many changes were made to this TAF issuance as the forecast generally remains on track. The main addition is PROB30 groups for TVF and BJI for potential freezing rain to mix into rainfall that is expedcted to move from northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight period. All TAF sites should remain generally as rain, although those two sites have the greatest probability for a changeover.

Flight category-wise, VFR conditions should prevail through the evening and early morning period with eventual lowering of ceilings to MVFR mid to late morning, getting to IFR at BJI. There are signals for this to clear out as a weak front moves through in the afternoon, but confidence in this is low at this point, so for now it is being held onto through the end of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ005-006- 008-009-016-017.