textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional light rain is expected tonight through Saturday night, and there is the potential for widespread soaking rain early next week. These rain events may impact outdoor activities and harvest.

..Rain tonight/tomorrow and again Monday/Tuesday

Shortwave will move in from the southwest tonight and provide some lift for light rain to develop in warm air advection. Highest probability of rainfall amounts are around the tenth of an inch to perhaps a quarter of an inch range. However, with some weak MU CAPE of up to 500 J/kg, can't completely rule out some convective cells with heavier amounts. The decent pressure gradient will bring some fairly breezy winds and with showers aiding mix down can't completely rule out some gusts up to 30 mph or so at times. A bit of a break on Sunday, then the stronger system arrives early next week. Still some slight variations in the exact track, but seem to be converging on a solution with deformation band precipitation setting up over northeastern ND and northwestern MN. Probabilities of amounts over 1 inch in this area are 60 to 70 percent, and there is even some 20 to 30 percent probabilities of over 2 inches Monday into Tuesday. A soaking rain seems likely, although could still be some variations in exactly where the heaviest amounts set up before the period arrives.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

MVFR ceilings in in place across eastern ND and northwest MN will persist through the evening hours, with the best chance for a 3-9hr period of VFR conditions (3100-5000 ft agl cigs) in northwest MN later this evening/early overnight. Guidance keeps this area of improvement east of the Red River Valley (less likely to reach KGFK/KFAR), though it could be close before new low stratus (MVFR and eventual IFR) spreads west to east with the approaching low later tonight/early Saturday morning. Rain and associated vis reductions (generally 3-6sm) will also arrive with that system with peak coverage in eastern ND during the morning hours, and rain lingering into Saturday afternoon across northwest MN.

Southeast winds increase 12-16kt (gusts around 25kt) in response to the surface gradient continuing to increase as that system pushes east-northeast tonight and Saturday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.