textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and again on Friday. Severe weather is not expected, and the main threat will be lightning.

UPDATE

Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Update to Key Message for the day.

As the main upper level forcing with the strong mid-upper level jet is tracing to the west and south of our region more widespread/organized areas of showers and thunderstorms are more likely to remain outside of our local region. The main frontal zone where better BL moisture and instability in place is also to the west and south, keeping very weak instability in place locally.

As the mid level waves continue to move through the region though we do have enough forcing, moisture, and insatiability to continue to support pockets of showers and occasional lighting activity. HREF and latest CAMs do indicate redevelopment during peak heating during the daytime period before quickly moving out and dissipating through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Overall, confidence in coverage in location of shower activity in our CWA is lower than 24hr ago, but we still expected some areas of showers and non severe storms to continue periodically today.

..Showers and storms this afternoon into Wednesday

Strong upper jet traversing the Dakotas into Minnesota is helping supply strong dynamical lift for ascent. This forcing will utilize available, although meager, moisture to produce widespread showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the rest of today, tonight, and into Wednesday. Instability is greatly lacking in our region, particularly as strongest forcing traverses our area tonight. This is nullifying potential for severe weather despite the strong wind energy that could have been harnessed for storm organization and/or wind gusts.

Thus, main hazard with today/tonight/Wednesday's storms will be lightning. There is, however, a small chance in funnels or even perhaps a brief, weak tornado given consolidated spin in the atmosphere as the strong mid level wave moves through - this potential is dependent upon the surface wave lingering longer than currently advertised, near the tri-state area, into this afternoon allowing enough surface heating to get storms to form favorably on lingering boundaries.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A surface low is centered over southeast ND with several fronts over eastern ND and northwest MN. North of these fronts moisture is pooling and IFR stratus is beginning to develop around KDVL and north central ND and KBJI in north central MN. Guidance shows stratus filling in through the morning hours with MVFR ceilings across eastern ND and northwest MN as the surface low slides south and a cold front pushes into the region before improving back to VFR from the northwest to east through the afternoon and early evening hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also expected into the afternoon, with coverage and duration of this activity highly variable.

Winds should increase s the cold front drops south from the northeast then north, with gusts 20-25kt likely and a low chance for gusts around 30kt over parts of eastern ND.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.