textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Level 2 out of 5 risk Tlate afternoon and evening today for the Devils Lake area and a level 1 out of 5 risk tonight into the northern Red River valley. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms.

- Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

SPC Day 1 outlook issued around 06z didnt change the slight or marginal risk area. Looks like scattered severe storms will form in an axis of 3000 to 4000 j/kg MUCAPE in north central ND into southwest Manitoba mid to late afternoon. Location of development may be affected by how far east this early morning t-storms moving in from Saskatchewan and northeast Montana make it. Brief severe period as after 03z the MUCAPE values drop significantly and 0-6 km bulk shear is modest (25-30 kts) any low level jet is quite weak as well, 850 mb winds 20-25 kts.

Heat impacts and messaging remain for this weekend into early next week with focus on highest heat impacts Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Surface high pressure centered in southern MB will extend its influence into our area, calming winds, and helping clear skies. This may help areas of fog develop within the region. Latest high resolution guidance keeps coverage on the lower end, but does highlight areas within the Red River Valley as well as into northwest Minnesota. Should fog develop, timeframe generally resides 4 AM to 8 AM. Fog may be dense within the Red River Valley.

..Synopsis

Zonal flow across the northern CONUS today will gradually give way to more meridional flow by this weekend as ridging builds across the Rockies and Plains. Clusters then depict a couple stronger waves riding along the periphery of the ridge in Interior Canada. This could have impacts reaching some of the local thresholds for Heat Advisories or even an Extreme Heat Warning this weekend so the impact of these waves in the placement and amplitude of the ridge will certainly be something to watch. Along with these waves comes chances for some scattered rain though no drought busters. The main rain chance to be aware of looks to be Thursday evening/overnight mainly across our eastern North Dakota counties with chance for some strong to severe activity.

- Thursday Severe Risk

Amid mostly zonal to slightly NW flow will come a shortwave tomorrow with a developing low level jet in the evening ahead the pacific trough. As moisture surges north in central North Dakota with dewpoints nearing 70 potentially there will be no shortage CAPE with upwards of 3000-4000 MUCAPE and enough shear along clockwise curved hodographs for initially robust supercell structures. Capable of golf ball sized hail and potentially a few tornadoes though a later initiation time may shunt the tornado threat (an earlier storm start time may yield a higher threat.) Regardless as storms work east into our forecast area and namely the Devils Lake Basin around 7-9pm they should transition to a more elevated mode and the surface begins to cool with the cessation of daytime heating and hazards will evolve to primarily hail and an increasing wind threat storms likely congeal into one or more lines/bowing segments. Hazards for our area are hail to 1.75" and winds to 60mph.

- Heat Impacts

For this weekend as heat builds there is high confidence in much of eastern North Dakota seeing air temperatures cresting 90 degrees as early as Saturday and lasting through at least Monday when highs fall back into the 80s for the middle of next week. During this stretch the 25-75th percentile spread on potential high temperatures is a reasonable 5-8 degrees meaning while temps could end up slightly warmer or cooler than currently being forecast it is unlikely highs will only be in the lower 80s rather than lower 90s. Along with the warm temps will be heat indices near to above 100 Saturday through Monday. With this heat headlines look to be in order with Sunday being the hottest day of the stretch. Will wait until tomorrow at the earliest to issue any headlines for Saturday but it will be a proper July scorcher of a weekend regardless of any products being issued.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR thru the period expected. Exceptions will be near any thunderstorms that affect the area late afternoon into tonight. I put prob30 for -tsra in GFK DVL and TVF sites where chances are 30 pct around the airport this evening/tonight. Other than that cirrus and some mid clouds later on. Calm winds to start then south-southeast 5 to 10 kts later this morning/aftn...but Bemidji near calm all day.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.