textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions prevail through at least Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Winds are becoming gusty as forecast, with highest winds in the 35-40 mph range observed from the Devils Lake basin, into the Red River Valley, and sporadically into lakes country of west- central MN.

Winds is forecast to hold generally at their current values through at least mid afternoon, gradually diminishing late this afternoon. By sunset, winds will be considerably lower, less than 15 mph.

Relative humidity values are also observed into the 20s percent in the southern Red River Valley, with more widespread low 30s elsewhere within the Red River Valley, eastern ND, and into west-central MN.

Relatively humidity values are forecast to decrease a bit more into mid and late afternoon, which at it current trend pushes RH lower than previously forecast by around 5 percent. Lowest RH values are still forecast in southeast ND/southern Red River Valley into the low 20s percent.

This is allowing for near critical fire weather conditions, with main limiting factor being status of fuels. Fuels are reportedly still relatively high in green-ness and moisture, limiting the potential for rapid spread of fires. For this reason, we continue to omit dedicated messaging for fire weather conditions.

Otherwise, increased chance for showers with embedded thunder near Lake of the Woods based on current trends in satellite and radar. Isolated showers/weak thunderstorms will remain possible until near sunset.

..Synopsis

Upper pattern features a Pacific jet nosing into the Northern Plains out of the Canadian Rockies. At the surface, a weak and dry front is moving through the region this afternoon into evening. This may allow for some sprinkles, but overall lack of moisture and temperature change behind the front will prevent most rain from reaching the ground.

Post frontal air mass tomorrow will be noticed mostly by an increase in northwest winds, gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps nearing 40 mph in northwest MN during the afternoon. Also in northwest MN, some rain showers may develop lee of Lake of the Woods during the afternoon. Lower RH values in southeast ND will allow for near critical fire weather conditions, however relatively higher moisture fuel status will negate any dedicated messaging of fire weather concerns at this time.

Into late week, upper pattern stays rather zonal with some guidance suggesting upper ridging into the central CONUS by next week. This will continue to support above average temperatures and an overall dry forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. However, gusty northwest winds may impact aviation this afternoon. Gusts in the 25-30kt range are forecast within eastern ND and Red River Valley, including KDVL, KFAR, KGFK, and KTVF. Low chance for intermittent gusts to 34kt, relatively best chance at KFAR and KGFK. Included TEMPO groups to denote when these gusts in excess of 30kt will be possible - generally before 21Z. After 21Z, the behavior for such gusts becomes more infrequent, but still could get an isolated gust to this magnitude until 23Z.

Winds will gradually diminish late afternoon between 22-00Z, with a markedly decrease closer to 00Z and becoming less than 10kt after 00Z.

Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are forecast near Lake of the Woods area in northwest MN this afternoon, ending around sunset.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.