textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly in Minnesota. Main hazard is lightning, although couldn't rule out small hail and gusty winds to 50 mph.

..Shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and night

Models continue to show a narrow band of instability out ahead of the cold front this afternoon across southeastern ND into western MN. SPC meso analysis has about 500 J/kg, and with a few more hours of heating ML CAPE could get into the quadruple digits. Shear is around 30 kts, but a weak shortwave could get a few cells going that could produce some lightning, brief downpours, and even a bit of small hail or gusts to 50 mph. The cold front will drop through later tonight, with some additional elevated thunderstorms possible but most of the CAMs keep precipitation post frontal and unimpressive.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Winds are slowly decreasing this evening. There will be a wind shift to the north as a cold front slides southeastward late this evening into the overnight hours. The north to northwest winds will persist throughout the remainder of the TAF period, increasing Friday morning, with a couple of terminals acquiring gusts by afternoon. Ahead of this wind shift, there is a brief window for LLWS at KFAR and KBJI during the late evening and early overnight hours. Ceilings will remain VFR throughout the TAF period. Afternoon cumulus may develop Friday afternoon, therefore added in SCT050 at all terminals.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.