textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance for a mix of light rain, freezing rain, and snow Monday. Advisory potential will hinge on freezing rain occuring.

- Above average temperatures are expected through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Minimal changes have been made to the forecast since this afternoon with a minor update to pops with the latest guidance perhaps bringing things in a tad later than before. Otherwise Dry air still forecast to be a major problem and lead to mostly freezing rain and freezing drizzle (depending on the depth of the near sfc saturated layer). Still very unsure on the potential for an Advisory as guidance remains very bearish on QPF and thus the potential for impacts.

..TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

Two separate jet maxes are going to be pushing quickly eastward over the next 24 hours. The first is currently centered roughly in southern Manitoba and its surface low pressure is the one that created the current warm front progressing through our area. The other remains further southwest deep within the intermountain west. These will progress through in succession to each other and should bring the chance of precipitation overnight. Overall, synoptic forcing is not particularly strong, but mesoscale frontogenetic forcing is a fairly persistent signal, but weakens as it approaches our area. What this means is there is likely to be some unorganized band of precipitation progressing southeastward slowly, as the long axis does appear closer to parallel to the flow as opposed to perpendicular. Some instability does exist, but to what degree that impacts us is highly dependent upon precipitation type. Timing this out and intensity also remains a high question mark as we are hinging the strength of this on the timing of two subsequent jets and its attached ageostrophic circulations, hence why model guidance has struggled over the last few days to resolve this. Having said that, moisture profiles are relatively dry and given the fast moving nature of this we generally should remain fairly light on QPF so the heaviest impacts will have to arise from potential freezing rain.

Along this frontal boundary will be varying temperature profiles, and complicating matters is surface wet bulb temperatures above 32F. If wet bulb temperatures are above 32F, then saturation won't be enough to get us below freezing, however snowpack may allow for some freezing impacts to surfaces if we get freezing rain or rain. This looks to be a fairly low- end probability (20%) as guidance does tend to favor below freezing temperatures aloft prior to the surface falling below freezing, although this has a lower predictability horizon given the scope of the synoptic setup of this system. Reasonably speaking, the most likely outcome right now is rain/snow mix along and south of I-94, potentially getting as far north as Highway 200. Most snowfall accumulation maxes do paint around an inch if we do get snow which seems reasonable given forcing and the potential for some instability enhancement (not particularly strong instability but instability nonetheless). Regardless, generally looks like advisory impacts has a low probability at this point in time (20%) and will depend on if freezing rain arises which would require temperatures aloft to be above freezing while temperatures at the surface are below freezing, which once again, depends on timing of the first and second shortwaves and how far/close they are to each other.

Wrap around precipitation from the northern wave is possible to linger into Monday night and Tuesday morning, primarily as snow as temperatures should get cold enough. Temperatures should be between 15-25 with generally modest wind production of 10-15 mph sustained, so any HCRs that do happen to precipitate should provide only limited impacts to visibility.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

While the GFK continues to report OVC011, looking outside skies are very much clear. With this in mind confident VFR conditions will remain across the region through the next few hours before things start to drop into MVFR ranges from 12z-18z with BJI reaching IFR Monday afternoon. Still unsure what happens at FAR wrt to the morning precip but thinking at least right now that things remains south of the terminal and dry air helps to prevent things from spreading north and impacting the site directly. Still going to be some LLWS through the next 6 hours (280 at 30-40kts) but other than CIGS remain the primary aviation hazard for the period

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.