textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy accumulating snow will impact areas along and north of Highway 2 this evening into Wednesday night. Snowfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected. Elsewhere, snow is still forecasted tonight through Wednesday, but totals will be lower.

- Widespread precipitation and melted snowpack brings a low risk for flooding impacts in the southern Red River Valley.

MESOSCALE

Issued at 932 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Surface analysis at 3z shows the center of the surface low roughly south of Aberdeen, South Dakota with a broad swath of warm air advection ongoing across pretty much all of eastern North Dakota. Sandwiched next to this warm air advection is a swath of cold air advection roughly between 925-850mb thanks to a very strong jet exceeding 60 knots based on KMVX VWP. Temperatures within the column are beginning to cool west of the Red River Valley where moderate snow has been observed.

There still remains a great deal of uncertainty in how the pattern evolves over the next several hours and how that contributes to impacts. Temperatures near the surface within the valley remain quite warm, with NDAWN showing mid-30s but these temperatures have finally begun to fall closer towards the freezing mark. The freezing wet bulb temperature line has begun to shift southward very slowly through Grand Forks County. Having said that, the main 850 low is well down in South Dakota, which means we still sit along an axis of thermal ridging keeping 850mb temperatures above 0C. Once this 850 low approaches, we should start to see mid-level temperatures fall, thus contributing to more widespread snowfall.

Once the changeover to snow does occur along and north of US Highway 2, expect the threat for heavy snowfall rates pushing 1 or more inches per hour, particularly over the next 2-4 hours. This is because we have very strong instability associated with this system and the differential temperature advection is only helping in that regard. For this reason, those in the warning areas are likely to see impacts greatly increase once heavier snowfall rates arise. Snow will continue to linger through the day tomorrow pushing our totals past 4-6 inches for everyone along and north of Highway 200, possibly hitting double digits depending on where the heaviest snow falls.

..Winter Storm

Satellite displays a dynamic system this afternoon over the high plains. Strong ascent and warm air advection over the Dakotas is causing regional radar to light up with echos. Enough dry air in the column is keeping most of these returns from reaching the ground. However, this will quickly change during the late afternoon and evening hours.

As the low to our south near the SD/NE state line rapidly deepens, a strong band of frontogensis will work from south to north across our FA. Everything is in place to help fuel heavy precipitation rates, ranging from a low level jet of up to 70 knots feeding moisture into an atmospheric column that features lapse rates of up to 7 C/km. This northward lifting band will form during the evening hours, and persist much of tonight. Precipitation will start as rain, heavy at times. With instability present, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially in the southern Red River Valley into west central MN.

As temperatures fall this evening into tonight, moderate to heavy rain will transition to heavy snow. This transition will occur first near the International Border. Snowfall rates of 1+ inch per hour are forecasted within this band. Right now, the most likely area to experience 1+ inch per hour rates is along or just north of the Highway 2 corridor. Global ensembles have been locked onto the idea for the past day or so of a further south and slower storm. Current placement of the developing low, along with where we are observing pressure falls in northern NE/southern SD would seem to confirm this. Recent CAM model guidance has also fallen in line with the idea of a more southern track over the past 12 hours or so. Overnight, radar trends will need to be monitored in case another tier of counties south needs to be added to either the warning or advisory headlines.

When you combine the heavy snowfall rates with easterly winds of up to 30 mph, blizzard-like conditions are expected for at least several hours in the winter storm warning area. These visibility reductions will be strongly tied to snowfall rates. Snowfall rates will decrease in intensity Wednesday morning into the afternoon, with wandering bands of heavier snow still likely area wide. Conditions will improve Wednesday night, as snow finally lightens up. However, for areas that see significant accumulations, severe drifting snow will continue to drive impacts even if visibilities improve.

As for snowfall totals, a general 5 to 10 inches of snow is forecast for counties along and north of US Highway 2. There will be pockets that receive more then this, especially in northeastern North Dakota where the residence time of the heavy snow band looks to be a bit longer, with someone likely to see a foot of snow. One way to gauge how much snow your location will receive is before going to bed, ask yourself when you look outside, is it snowing? If you are already seeing snow at 8-11 PM, for the remainder of the event you will experience snow, and your totals will be towards the upper end of the snowfall range. If it is still raining at 11PM, that will eat into snowfall totals, so when you wake up Wednesday morning, do not be surprised if only a couple of inches have accumulated. This will particularly be true in places like Grand Forks, Hillsboro, Thief River Falls, and Bemidji. One last impact to touch on: rainfall totals just south of where we transition to snow will be quite heavy, a quarter inch or greater. If this occurs over an urban area, where ice is blocking drainages, ponding of water may occur.

Overall, this will be a dynamic system with a wide variety of impacts. Please continue to monitor the forecast, and heed any warnings and advisories that have been issued for this evening into Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next several hours as rain becomes snow. Heavy snow is ongoing at DVL and may spread to GFK and TVF by 08z, possibly earlier depending on when full changeover to snow happens. Ceilings with this will fall to IFR/LIFR over the next several hours with this. FAR will continue to hang onto rain for the next several hours but will also be joining the other sites. Heavy snow should mainly be isolated to prior to 12z, but through the day expect some intermittent IFR/LIFR visibilities with prevailing MVFR visibilities. Ceilings should remain below 1000 feet until at least 00z where we start to see snowfall taper off through the evening hours, although low ceilings should persist towards the end of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ006>008-014>016-026-027-054. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ024-028>030. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ038-039. MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Wednesday night for MNZ001-004>009-013>017. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for MNZ002-022>024.