textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat impacts are expected to continue across portions of the area through the remainder of this week.

..Synopsis

Anomalously strong upper ridge remains firmly in place over the Northern Plains today through Friday. At the surface, stationary front remains draped west-east across generally the I-94 corridor. South of this front, higher dew points and temperatures reside, whereas north of the front offers a reprieve from recent heat aided by lower temperatures and dew points along with some cloud cover. Heat impacts remain in southeast ND and west-central MN today.

Back aloft, two or more low amplitude and weak shortwave impulses moving through the crest of the ridge will bring low chance for showers tonight near the international border, as well as a medium chance for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into early Friday, again near the international border. A few storms may be strong to severe late Thursday into early Friday capable of producing hail and gusty winds. While not overly confident in this severe potential, there is enough instability and shear that could help organize storms for hail potential, along with dry air in the lower levels for strong downdrafts leading to gusty winds. While most locations will likely not see rainfall, those that do can anticipate a wetting rain, with locally soaking rainfall of at least 1 inch possible, too - again, favored to occur within northeast ND into northwest MN.

This will also help draw back north the higher dew points and temperatures, continuing heat impacts in at least southeast ND and west-central MN, perhaps further north depending on how far north the front makes it.

Near the front is easterly flow, which will effectively draw in more wildfire smoke toward our region. Added smoke into the forecast, with confidence high enough in degraded air quality starting as early as today, lasting through at least Friday. Westerly low level flow by Saturday may help push smoke back out of our area, so this bout of smoke is likely to be shorter duration in the near term.

Into the weekend, the strong upper ridge will build westward into the Four Corners region by this weekend. This will allow another yet bout of hot temperatures to spread into the Dakotas, with high temperatures well into the 90s. This along with likely higher dew points will continue potential for heat impacts within our region through Sunday. Confidence is not high in exact location of this potential, but areas that have been experiencing current wave of heat impacts within southeast ND and west-central MN hold relatively higher chances at seeing these impacts. If this occurs, this would be one of the longest stretches of at least 90F temperatures in southeast ND and west-central MN.

Ensemble guidance strongly favors a (not-weak) cold front to move through Monday or Tuesday. This would effectively end the current heat wave impacting our region. This also would offer chance for showers and storms, although details on strength and coverage remain uncertain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas of near surface smoke have worked into portions of the area tonight, bringing periods of reduced visibility, mainly to KFAR. Guidance continues to bring wildfire smoke into the area during the early morning hours, with improvements expected around or just after sunrise. Added a mention of smoke to most sites except KDVL. Winds remain generally light through the overnight before increasing late Thursday morning. Wildfire smoke could remain in the mid to upper levels through much of the day on Thursday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for NDZ024-028>030-038- 039-049-052-053. MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ002-003-029-030- 040.