textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for heat-related impacts Sunday, with additional heat impacts Tuesday.

- There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday evening and overnight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, with lesser chances for hail and tornadoes.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms along and south of the International Border Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.

- Additional thunderstorm chances next week, with the potential for severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 710 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Changes done to the forecast this early morning was to go with a wind advisory for western fcst area from Valley City to Langdon to match up with WFO BIS. It is a marginal advisory for sure, but some wind gusts may approach 45 mph this afternoon. Evening shift coord with DLH and DLH went SPS for near critical fire wx their far north and I did as well as similar conditions present, though RH values 30-35 pct. Suspect this may be the last SPS for a while as we do enter a higher dew pt pattern and late week cool down.

..Severe Thunderstorm Chances Sunday through Tuesday

Sunday Evening: Thunderstorms are expected to form in western and central North Dakota Sunday afternoon and early evening. These storms will travel east as the evening progresses, approaching eastern North Dakota during the mid to late evening. At this time, the most likely mode will favor linear and/or line segments in eastern North Dakota, but will be downstream of antecedent supercells that undergo upscale development. Very strong low and mid level lapse rates will drive initiation ahead of a cold front, with CAPE values ranging anywhere from 2000 J/Kg to 3000 J/Kg. Environmental support runs out rather quickly as storms approach the Red River Valley, thus confidence in the eastern extent of strong storms looks minimal at this time. Monday Night: Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday evening and persist into the overnight hours. The primary hazard will be large hail and a lower risk for damaging wind gusts. These storms will be driven by strong mid level lapse rates as well as 0-6 km shear upwards of 45-50 knots.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Moisture advection remains strong heading into Tuesday as low level flow increases out of the south. SBCAPE in model soundings ranges from 3000 J/Kg to 4000 J/Kg, with low to mid level shear ranging from 20 to 30 knots. Will need to watch this very closely in the coming days as the pattern continues to support additional severe thunderstorm potential on Wednesday. At this time, model soundings support supercell storm mode both days, with all hazards possible.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 710 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR sky conditions today. Gusty southeast winds though in the RRV and eastern ND with gusts at times to 28-35 kts anticipated at GFK, FAR, DVL region late morning and afternoon. Chance for t-storms increases tonight, but not until after 03z in DVL. Risk of storms after 06z may spread east into the RRV but also in a diminishing mode.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054. MN...None.