textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions develop today with wind gusts to 50 mph across parts of northeast North Dakota and the northern Red River Valley in Minnesota.

- There is a medium chance for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern North Dakota, and northwest and west central Minnesota.

..Severe Risk Friday Afternoon and Evening

Strong southerly flow should bring higher BL moisture back to the region, while strong westerly flow aloft overspreads the region as a trough passes along with a strong cold front. In the warm sector ahead of the front there is the potential for at least moderate CAPE values as steep mid level lapse rates will be in place, though capping may play a role in delayed initiation until the front and better synoptic ascent arrive. Timing of the front and forcing and any capping ahead of this will all play roles in determining coverage and ultimately impacts. Strong effective shear is forecast across the region, with hodographs in the warm sector supportive of supercells and very large hail or tornadoes (mesoscale details will ultimately play a role on how this pattern is realized). AI based systems that have shown good skill this season highlight higher probabilities for severe thunderstorms in our area, especially over west central MN which conceptually makes sense.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

MVFR to IFR stratus in north central MN is showing signs of breaking up near KBJI on satellite and the trend should be for VFR conditions to return in the 18-19Z window. Another area of stratocumulus has been moving into northwest and north central MN with ceilings 2900-4000 ft agl moving towards the KDVL region. Based on current trends VFR should prevail though brief MVFR ceilings can't be ruled out this afternoon.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN through the TAF period with a period of very light showers/sprinkles overnight tonight into the morning hours Monday (6000-8000 ft agl cigs with those showers).

Southwest winds are starting to shift to the west as a low pressure system passes to the north and winds are increasing across central ND and eastern ND and this trend should continue through the afternoon when 30-43kt wind gusts can be expected (strongest gusts in northeast ND towards KDVL). Winds do diminish some with sunset (gusts below 30kt) and sustained winds may fall below 12kt before increasing once again with daytime mixing Wednesday. There is a much lower chance for 30kt gusts at TAF sites Wednesday afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-054. MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004-007.