textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be large hail to golf ball size and winds up to 75 mph.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances may impact outdoor events through July 4th. Some storms could be strong to severe, but threats will generally be limited to hail to quarter size and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

..4TH OF JULY FORECAST

Instability remains across the region for the 4th of July, but the upper flow pattern again is very weak. Due to the ongoing festivities and outdoor activities for the 4th, we do want to note that there is the potential for heavy rainfall/showers and thunderstorms. However, there is very high uncertainty in the scope of showers and thunderstorms as this will largely depend on antecedent convection dropping outflow boundaries/convergent zones. With the lack of flow aloft as well, storms may be stationary in some locations, so flash flooding couldn't be ruled out. Overall this carries very low predictability. At a minimum, expect a 60% chance of showers/storms by the afternoon across the entire area, although the spatial extent of storms should remain scattered. Severe storm potential is very low thanks to very weak shear.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, though there is a low chance for brief MVFR ceilings over parts of the KDVL region depending on the evolution of upstream shower/thunderstorm activity in Saskatchewan as it moves into northwest ND and north central MN (chances at KDVL 10-14Z). Otherwise, the more organized shower/thunderstorm activity has remained well south of TAF sites this evening in ND/northwest MN, with only a few showers/weaker thunderstorms in southeast ND during the early evening period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.