textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- No impactful weather thru next Monday.

- Above normal temperatures much of the period today into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1202 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Light snow/flurries remain possible in northwest MN, mainly near the Lake of the Woods and Red Lakes area.

While the majority of our area will remain mostly cloudy, areas in the southern Devils Lake basin into Sheyenne River Valley will remain mostly clear. This along with mostly snow free and dark soils will allow temperatures to reach well into the 30s above freezing.

UPDATE Issued at 612 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Light snow noted in Winnipeg and Kenora in the past 2 hours and radar shows those light returns from Woodlands radar moving southeast and seeing 5SM -SN at Warroad at 12z. So idea of flurries or light snow into Lake of the Woods area today (esp this AM) is looking good. Otherwise seeing pretty significant clearing working its way southeast and eastward with clearing of the clouds reaching DVL here at 12z and clear holes into GFK as well so did update sky cover to faster clearing into E ND and RRV.

..Synopsis

Main 500 mb low is in NW Ontario this early morning north of Lake Superior. The are several weaker 500 mb short waves moving south-southeast around the upper low with one set to affect Lake of the Woods region today. Upstream radars in Manitoba and NW Ontario indicate light snow/flurries and would expect a period of light snow/flurries sagging southeast into Lake of the Woods region, possibly to Bemidji and as far west as Thief River Falls and Hallock. Trace amounts of snowfall. Clouds will hold all day in this region of NW Minnesota with highs today low 20s.

Rest of the area will start with cloud cover with cold advection stratocu over the area, but some clearing noted in Manitoba west of Winnipeg should spread southeast into E ND and RRV and eventually west central MN thru the day. Pretty sharp temp gradient today and likely to the case for the rest of the week with colder readings NW MN to milder temps southwest fcst area (west/south of Fargo) where snow cover is more patchy. Today will be the coldest day and warming up with Friday seeing highs upper 30s NW MN to near 50 in Forman, Valley City. Similar temps into Saturday. Overnight lows are expected to be below freezing all areas so melt will remain gradual and also degree of snow melt dependent on if sunshine or clouds prevail which at this point is difficult to tell as 500 mb flow remains westerly with embedded weak short waves moving thru. Limited moisture though means dry conditions thru Sunday.

What system had been progged to give a slight chance for light snow to far SE ND or west central MN Thursday is now a lot weaker and farther south.

Next week precipitation chances tied to if a full longitude trough will form in the western US and enough ridging in the eastern US to bring full southwest flow aloft into the area. You have to go out to day 8-10 range to view ensembles that want to bring higher chances of moisture into the local region. Confidence though is low as the long range indicated similar potential for this upcoming weekend several days ago and this system for the weekend will stay well south as southwest flow not reaching the northern Plains like it was progged 10 days ago.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1202 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Aviation impacts within the TAF period through 18Z Wednesday is mainly tied to lowered ceilings and potentially fog at some sites.

MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast to remain over sites within the Red River Valley (KFAR and KGFK) as well as into Minnesota (KTVF and KBJI), although confidence at KBJI is lowered based on current trends of clearing. Overall confidence in ceiling forecast becomes low after 00Z, with potentially IFR ceilings developing at all sites (20% chance). Lowest ceilings may be accompanied by fog between 06Z-15Z.

Fog and associated reduced visibility may develop at sites like KDVL, KTVF, and KBJI. Confidence is low in this as well. Modeled guidance is in disagreement in evolution of clouds around the region, thus lowers confidence in where fog may develop, particularly in Minnesota where winds will be calm and optimal for radiational cooling leading to fog development.

Winds will generally be out of the northwest 10-15kt, with some gusts to 25kt at sites like KBJI, TVF, and KFAR before 23Z. After 23Z, winds become less than 10kt.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.