textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat impacts are expected to continue across portions of the area through the remainder of this week.

UPDATE

Issued at 445 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The only change to the forecast as of early this morning is from the Storm Prediction Center, as a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms has been issued for portions of northeastern ND and northwestern MN, covering this afternoon and evening. A shortwave will propagate along the northern axis of the ridge over southern Canada this afternoon. As it pushes eastward closer to this FA, forcing may be sufficient for a storm or two to develop during the late afternoon and evening hours. Analyzing soundings, there is a wide envelope in potential atmospheric profiles. In the Devils Lake Basin, where morning cloud cover should clear earlier, parcels appear to be surface based. However, in northwestern MN, there may be less atmospheric recovery. In addition, storms likely wont reach there until later (maybe not until after sunset). This leaves instability and parcels potentially elevated. Either way, shear profiles in both locations do support supercells, with hail as a primary threat. In addition, one cannot rule out wind with drier low levels, especially further west. What seems to be the bigger question is if and when storms develop. Some CAMs depict storms developing west of Devils Lake (NAM, 00z HRRR) during the late afternoon. These CAMs seem to have a bit stronger wave and a more pronounced surface low. Conversely, other CAMs hold off development until the wave is further east, or develop nothing at all (RRFS, 06z HRRR). The bottom line is that if we can get a storm or two to develop, especially earlier in the day further west, it will bear watching. Hopefully by late morning a clearer picture will unfold regarding convective initiation and eventual evolution based on cloud cover, wave location and surface obs.

..Synopsis

Anomalously strong upper ridge remains firmly in place over the Northern Plains today through Friday. At the surface, stationary front remains draped west-east across generally the I-94 corridor. South of this front, higher dew points and temperatures reside, whereas north of the front offers a reprieve from recent heat aided by lower temperatures and dew points along with some cloud cover. Heat impacts remain in southeast ND and west-central MN today.

Back aloft, two or more low amplitude and weak shortwave impulses moving through the crest of the ridge will bring low chance for showers tonight near the international border, as well as a medium chance for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into early Friday, again near the international border. A few storms may be strong to severe late Thursday into early Friday capable of producing hail and gusty winds. While not overly confident in this severe potential, there is enough instability and shear that could help organize storms for hail potential, along with dry air in the lower levels for strong downdrafts leading to gusty winds. While most locations will likely not see rainfall, those that do can anticipate a wetting rain, with locally soaking rainfall of at least 1 inch possible, too - again, favored to occur within northeast ND into northwest MN.

This will also help draw back north the higher dew points and temperatures, continuing heat impacts in at least southeast ND and west-central MN, perhaps further north depending on how far north the front makes it.

Near the front is easterly flow, which will effectively draw in more wildfire smoke toward our region. Added smoke into the forecast, with confidence high enough in degraded air quality starting as early as today, lasting through at least Friday. Westerly low level flow by Saturday may help push smoke back out of our area, so this bout of smoke is likely to be shorter duration in the near term.

Into the weekend, the strong upper ridge will build westward into the Four Corners region by this weekend. This will allow another yet bout of hot temperatures to spread into the Dakotas, with high temperatures well into the 90s. This along with likely higher dew points will continue potential for heat impacts within our region through Sunday. Confidence is not high in exact location of this potential, but areas that have been experiencing current wave of heat impacts within southeast ND and west-central MN hold relatively higher chances at seeing these impacts. If this occurs, this would be one of the longest stretches of at least 90F temperatures in southeast ND and west-central MN.

Ensemble guidance strongly favors a (not-weak) cold front to move through Monday or Tuesday. This would effectively end the current heat wave impacting our region. This also would offer chance for showers and storms, although details on strength and coverage remain uncertain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Smoke will be the main concern during the TAF period, although some thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out at northern terminals. Smoke has been impacting KFAR and KBJI much of the night. This smoke will remain for the next several hours, keeping visibilities in the IFR range. It should improve in the afternoon, but the degree of improvement is uncertain. The next issue is thunderstorm development. Currently, showers and embedded thunderstorms are tracking near the International border. These should stay north of terminals. However, there may be additional storm development late this afternoon and evening, lasting into tonight. There is significant uncertainty in how this activity develops (if at all). Therefore, I did not add any mention of -TSRA into the TAFs at this time.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ024-028>030- 038-039-049-052-053. MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-029.