textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the Devils Lake Basin into the northern Red River Valley. Weaker showers and thunderstorms could get as far east as the Red River later tonight. - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening over the central and southern Red River Valley.

..Severe potential on Wednesday

Weakening showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing tomorrow morning near the Red River, so that may have a bit of an impact on how things develop tomorrow afternoon. Some ensemble members have CAPE approaching 2000 J/kg in southeastern ND, and deep layer bulk shear should be a bit better further south than today with 30-40 kts. CIPS and machine learning both have some 15 percent probabilities of severe impacts. HREF probabilities for updraft helicity tracks have a bullseye over SD, but over 70 percent chance for 4 hour max UH tracks nosing into Ransom and Sargent counties. Main threat will be in southeastern ND into the southern and central RRV south of Highway 2. Large hail over 2 inches will be possible, but can't rule out a tornado spin up or some damaging wind.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions currently and for the next several hours, as convection has already started to develop between KDVL and KGFK. Cells are pretty isolated so far and not expected to impact the airports yet. Additional showers and thunderstorms will move into the KDVL area later this evening and possibly KGFK by late evening to the early morning hours. Less certain how far south and east to go as the convection weakens, but have some prob30 for showers at KFAR and KTVF late tonight into tomorrow morning. Some of the models bring in some MVFR ceilings behind the convection, but only certain enough for KDVL to include in the TAFs at this point. Winds may be impacted by convection, turning to the west or even northwest for a time in northeastern ND, but will return to southeasterly. Gusts should remain below 25 kts except near thunderstorms.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.