textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered t-storms today until sunset over the area. There is a 1 out of 5 risk of brief severe storms in southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. But any storm is capable of heavy rain, lightning, and small hail. - Level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk Monday as a frontal boundary moves through.

..Severe chances Sunday night and again Monday

The shortwave coming over the top of the upper ridge late Sunday could bring some storms to north central ND that could clip our far northwestern counties. HREF updraft helicity probabilities are not too impressive with only a few members showing any paintballs in Towner county, but can't rule out a few isolated cells. Better, but still marginal chances for severe storms will be Monday as the frontal boundary sags south into our area. Ensemble mean CAPE according to the NBM gets over 2000 J/kg by Monday afternoon and deep layer shear increases to 35 to 40 kts. Still a few days away, but if the trends that the NBM shows hold Monday looks like a fairly busy convective day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions at most of the TAF sites, except KBJI which is being impacted by thunderstorms and vis has dropped down to MVFR for a time. Convection will continue to redevelop around KBJI through the afternoon, and could stray as far west as KTVF or KFAR, but less certain for those spots so will keep any CB mention out for now. Convection at KBJI will taper off around sunset, with all sites VFR. Light and variable winds for most of the TAF sites will begin to pick up out of the southeast by tomorrow morning at KDVL, but speeds should remain below 10 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.