textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon in west-central Minnesota.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast in southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota Saturday late morning into the afternoon.

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for a few elevated thunderstorms bringing a threat for one inch hail Sunday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of west-central Minnesota where winds will overlap with lower relative humidity this afternoon. Highly receptive fuels exist across these areas, so any ignition will have a high probability to spread. Near critical conditions remain expected buffered around the Red Flag Warning zone, but winds will be much less likely to overlap with the lowest relative humidities.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Mostly clear skies prevail across most of west central and northwest Minnesota this morning, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in northeast North Dakota and parts of the southern Red River Valley. Temperatures are in the 40s in most places, with a few readings in the upper 30s along the International Border.

UPDATE Issued at 849 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Gusty winds are lessening as anticipated with the loss of daytime heating and mixing. This is allowing blowing dust / dirt to settle with area webcams and surface observations showing improving visibility.

Relative humidity values are starting to increase as well with loss of daytime heating as well as cold front moving into the region. This will end critical fire weather conditions early this evening.

Updated the Key Messages to remove out of date messages relating to impacts from earlier today, while also hoisting additional Key Message noting on near critical fire weather conditions in portions of southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota late morning through early afternoon Saturday. While RH values will dip into the 20s and perhaps upper teens, winds aloft should decrease during the afternoon during peak heating/mixing. Thus, near critical fire weather conditions will be derived mainly from very dry air / low RH values.

UPDATE Issued at 519 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued for portions of northeast ND into northwest MN through 9 PM this evening. Satellite imagery, area webcams, and automated surface observations strongly suggest visibility reductions from blowing dust / dirt is below 1 mile, locally to quarter mile or even near zero (particularly in far northern Red River Valley). This will continue through the rest of the afternoon until around sunset when winds are forecast to start waning.

A portion of the Wind Advisory has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning within Devils Lake basin of northeast North Dakota. This is due to observed wind gusts underneath high based rain showers over 60 mph. Area webcams within these shower-induced severe gusts show potential for localized near zero visibility from blowing dust / dirt, further exacerbating potential impacts to travel conditions in this region for the Friday afternoon commute. This potential also continues through the afternoon until around sunset.

Critical fire weather conditions also continue this afternoon into early evening with RH values very low into the teens coupled with gusty winds and dry fuels.

..Severe chances Sunday afternoon

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for some severe storms to develop Sunday afternoon for portions of southeastern ND and west central MN. Much will depend on how the morning rainfall plays out, and if we can get the warm front to push far enough north to get into our southern counties. Still, quite a few of the ensemble members have some elevated instability around 1500 J/kg, even though the average surface based CAPE is only around 200 J/kg. Can't rule out some elevated storms that could produce some quarter sized hail, so will monitor how things evolve closely on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

MVFR ceilings continue to linger this morning but should lift over the next 1-3 hours, becoming mostly VFR. Winds will also diminish later this afternoon to generally 10-15 knots sustained and directions shifting clockwise towards more northeasterly and easterly by late this evening. This will be in advance of a widespread rain event that will impact all TAF sites, but the bulk of impacts will be after the end of the TAF period. Visibility reductions within rain are possible between 15z-18z at DVL and FAR, eventually spreading tomorrow afternoon to impacting all TAF sites. TSRA may also accompany this at FAR, particularly tomorrow afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ030>032- 040.