textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog may redevelop tonight into Wednesday morning.

- A winter storm will impact the Midwest this weekend. However for our area locally, up to 2 inches of snow and patchy blowing snow may occur.

..Weekend light snow and blowing snow

As alluded to in the Discussion above, a Colorado Low-type winter storm will develop within the Midwest this weekend. This is expected to occur with a southern branch shortwave trough departing the Southern Plains merging/interacting with a northern branch shortwave trough out of the Northern Plains.

The vast majority of ensemble guidance depicts this merging/interaction near the western Great Lakes region, keeping vast majority of accumulating precipitation east of our area. However, we will be under the influence of the northern branch shortwave trough before it merges with the southern branch. This will effectively bring light snow to our region, with most guidance keeping potential accumulations under 3 inches between Friday and Saturday.

Into Saturday, as the interaction between shortwaves increases, a gradually tightening pressure gradient will bring breezy northerly winds over our area. This will allow blowing and drifting snow to ensue. We do not anticipate significant impact from blowing snow due an expected snowpack to be largely locked in place from Wednesday's above freezing temperatures (although this may be something to keep an eye on should temperatures not reach above freezing as alluded to above).

Even if the snowpack stays blowable, a lack of more robust cold air advection, stronger winds aloft, and a lackluster pressure gradient/rise will limit how high winds will get. Current guidance keeps winds below 40 mph. With anticipated temperatures staying above zero combined with these winds, one could expect intermittent visibility reductions to half a mile in open country, particularly if falling snow is concurrent with these winds.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Drier air is arriving over eastern ND and west central MN are arriving as a south-southwest orientated LLJ moves into the region. This is finally help erode and clear out stratus and fog from the west to east, with a small area still stubbornly holding on early in the TAF period near KGFK expected to transition to VFR early in the TAF period. This stratus/fog may linger longer in northwest MN with IFR to VLIFR impacts until the low level clearing arrives 09-13Z. Surface winds generally trend from the south to southwest and eventually to more of a westerly direction through the TAF period as a warm front passes and low pressure rebuilds over the Canadian Prairies to the northwest Wednesday afternoon/evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.