textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday into Tuesday. A few storms may be strong to severe capable of hail to 1 inch and gusts to 60 mph in Red River Valley into Minnesota Tuesday afternoon.

..Synopsis

Surface high and upper shortwave ridging dominates over our region between two upper troughs in Canada today. This continues to keep our area under seasonably cool (albeit mild and comfortable) temperatures today into Monday. Some increasing cloud cover tonight should help limit how low overnight temperatures dip, although could see some low 40s in northwest MN again.

Lumbering system in western ND Monday will allow some light rain to enter eastern ND as early as Monday morning. However, next appreciable/high chance for showers and storms comes Monday night into Tuesday as all ensemble guidance brings a shortwave trough through the southern tier of central Canada into Minnesota. Timing and evolution of the warm sector will dictate how strong or severe storms may be. There is potential for the associated cold front to linger west enough to allow enough instability to build which would be organized by unidirectional shear aloft. This introduces the potential for storms to become strong to severe capable of hail to 1 inch and gusts to 60 mph.

Getting mid to late next week, upper ridging is forecast to build deeper into the Central CONUS with upper troughing in the Canadian Rockies and Northern Rockies. This will promote temperature trend back toward average to perhaps above average.

It is still worth mentioning that extended range ensemble and AI guidance migrate the aforementioned Rockies' upper trough eastward into the Northern Plains. An attendant upper jet max at the base of this trough is also expected to accompany this trough. With preceding upper ridging helping build instability and heat into the region, it is reasonable to believe that severe potential will increase, perhaps as early as next Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN. Winds shift to the southeast Monday as low pressure begins to build into western ND ahead of a front. Prevailing winds should remain 8kt or less at most TAF sites due to weaker surface gradient. KDVL has the best chance for 12kt+ winds Monday afternoon/evening as low pressure builds closer to central ND.

Later in the TAF period (Monday evening) rain and thunderstorm chances start to increase over north central ND towards KDVL, with best chances region-wide after the 06Z TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.