textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late tonight through the morning hours Monday, for large hail and damaging winds.

- There is a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail, with the potential for a few tornadoes.

..Severe Weather Risk Monday Afternoon/Evening

CAMs continue to show ongoing elevated shower and thunderstorms through Monday afternoon as the main trough moves across the region. If smoke aloft is too thick or mid level clouds/elevated storms linger, severe threats may remain isolated/marginal in nature with stronger capping in place. However where there is more clearing, CAMs are showing a signal for EML development ahead of the front with strongly sheared turning hodographs supportive of supercells. There should be enough forcing with the trough and front in that scenario for the CAP to be eroded near the frontal zone, and a more organized severe threat in the afternoon/evening. CAMs do show the stronger UH tracks/supercell type signal with some showing bowing type MCS clusters and this reflects the higher level scenario that is conditional on better surface based destabilization.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN through this evening, with the main impact related to gusty south-southeast winds around 30kt at times (best chances at KGFK/KFAR this afternoon). There is a low chance for surface level smoke bringing vis to the 5-6sm range mainly at KDVL during this TAF period. Winds gradually diminish after 00Z, with a front approaching north central ND and surface low pressure shifting east. A low level jet ahead of this approaching system should bring a period of low level wind shear to the region late evening into the morning hours Monday.

There is a consistent signal for scattered thunderstorms to develop around 12Z Monday morning continuing through the morning hours across northeast ND and parts of northwest ND with highest coverage/chances during the afternoon/evening farther south and east. Due to the scattered nature of convection during the morning hours I added PROB30 to TAF sites with best chance for impacts, but held off on prevailing conditions.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.