textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning thru this evening for all of eastern North Dakota and portions of northwest and west central Minnesota due to low humidity and wind. Fire weather watch for all of our counties Friday.

- Gusty south to southeast winds today, strongest in the Red River Valley morning into early afternoon with gusts to 50 mph possible. West winds Friday may gust to 55 mph, especially in northeast North Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Southerly winds continue to be quite stout across the Red River Valley and we have been getting a lot a blowing dust. A few spots have gone down to a quarter of a mile or less in some areas of the central Red River Valley, although those low vis are dependent on land use. For now will keep most counties advisory and just go warning where we have reports of brownout visibility. Winds will shift to the southwest and west, later this afternoon and into tonight. However, the northern counties will not see much reduction in speed tonight or tomorrow. Extended the wind advisory in those areas. Also blanketed the entire area in Red Flag as our eastern counties have dropped down to 25 percent and even non-advisory winds will still be meeting fire weather criteria. Overall, the winds, dust, and fire weather problems look to continue into tomorrow. Getting a few high based thunderstorms that we will have to watch out for dry microbursts for the next few hours, but so far not enough rain to offer relief.

UPDATE Issued at 703 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Updated pops a bit and weather to add isold t-storms as there are a couple within an elevated shower area from Carrington up thru Devils Lake. Did SPS thru 15z as with winds aloft 50-60 mph next couple hours will not take much to get brief strong wind gusts to the sfc. Earlier in BIS area 61 mph from NDAWN in SW Wells co. (10 meter wind). The big question about winds....sustained winds in kts are matching much more closely to the mean of conshort vs NBM 5.0 which were way too high. Thus toned down sustained winds.

UPDATE Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Overall not much change to ongoing forecast headlines. Currently this early morning waiting to see how surface winds respond as we will have 60 kts around 850 mb to move into the RRV. Otherwise low pop for -shra into the RRV midday with a bit higher chance pop east of the valley this aftn in MN. Strongest winds in the RRV thru early afternoon then a break as winds turn southwest then west in DVL basin later today/evening. It does appear that the strongest winds overnight will be more along Manitoba border and northwest/north central ND Rolla and west. Wind advisory may need to be continued or re-issued for parts of the area overnight into Friday. Fire weather concerns remain with low RH today and Friday and gusty winds.

..Winds Thursday and Friday

NBM tries to push the winds both ahead of the trough on Thursday and on Friday up to 35 to 40 kts sustained. While this seems excessive since it is more 90th percentile instead of middle of the ensemble, there is high probability of gusts over 40 mph. Not confident enough to go high wind warning for our counties, but advisory seems likely. Kept the advisory just for Thursday for now but will likely need another wind headline of some sort for Friday as probability of gusts above 50 mph is 60 to 70 percent in some areas.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Blowing dust is reducing visibility down to 1 to 2 miles at times, and some spots outside of the main airports have gone even lower. Will keep it 1 mile and above for now, and there will be some reduction in blowing dust for a time this evening as winds trend slightly down and just gust to 25 to 30 kts instead of 35 to 40 kts. The ND airports and KTVF will see winds pick up again out of the west, mainly tomorrow although plenty of wind tonight also. Gusts up above 30 kts for all TAF sites but KBJI towards the end of the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-054. Blowing Dust Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ008- 016-027-030. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ049-052-053. MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MNZ001>005-007-008- 013>015-022-027. Blowing Dust Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ001- 004-007. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MNZ001>009-013>017- 022>024-027>032-040. Blowing Dust Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ002. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ016-023- 028>031-040.