textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms in parts of southeastern North Dakota starting Wednesday evening, spreading into Minnesota on Thursday.

..Showers and Storms Wednesday into Thursday

As a shortwave tracks southeastward out of Canada on Wednesday, showers and a few thunderstorms will develop Wednesday west of this FA, tracking into southeastern ND during the evening. Instability is meager (up to about 500 J/Kg of MUCAPE), which looks to be the major limiting factor for severe storms. The latest SPC day 2 convective outlook has removed this FA from the level 1 out 5 marginal risk, which conceptually makes sense based the poor instability parameter space. Showers and storms will translate eastward Wednesday night. A few more storms may develop Thursday afternoon in MN, but again instability looks to be lacking. Lightning will be the primary threat with any storm that develops.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR throughout the TAF period. For this afternoon, a FEW to SCT deck at 5,000 AGL will develop at KDVL, KGFK, KTVF and KBJI with northwest winds up to 10 knots. A few hours of gusts during the peak of the afternoon are forecasted at KGFK and KFAR. However, winds will quickly die off this evening, becoming light and variable. Winds will remain relatively light Wednesday morning, generally out of the southwest at under ten knots.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.

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