textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue through early next week. This will continue to erode the snowpack, although no hydrological impacts are anticipated at this time.

- The next chance for a more active precipitation pattern will be mid to late next week, but confidence in winter impacts is low.

..More active pattern next week

There is decent agreement on the upper flow becoming more southwesterly by next week, although differences in the details. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS runs bring out a lead shortwave on Tuesday but differ on how they take it out of the region on Wednesday. An entire cluster of 25 percent of the grand ensemble members have upper ridging holding in place over the Plains for Tuesday/Wednesday while the main trough is still out over the west coast. Even if there was agreement on timing, the recent and continued warmer than average temps will make precip type a headache to figure out. There is the possibility of both rain and snow, and the ECMWF ensemble even shows some chances for sleet or freezing rain at some of the more northern locations. With the high levels of uncertainty, will hold off on any messaging for the middle of next week for the moment, but keep a close eye on trends.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR for the period...until it isnt. Fog is expected to form across much of NW MN from 00z through about 18z when it should become much less widespread. While the signal is strongest just east of the Red River this introduces considerable uncertainty with respect to if FAR and GFK are impacted and thus true signals of fog were only portrayed in the TVF TAF. Even in BJI the was some uncertainty and wanted to mainly focus on the thought and timing of potential impacts than committing to the impacts deterministically just yet. Pretty anywhere you see 6SM SKC expect at least a chance for fog during that period at the terminal. Where fog does occur expect LIFR to VLIFR with between VV001 and VV003.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.