textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected over parts of eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota through early evening. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected again over parts of the region as temperatures increase next week.

- Cold overnight and early morning temperatures are expected through Monday, with frost and freeze conditions over parts of the region.

..Frost/freeze impacts Sunday and Monday mornings

Frost/freeze headlines issued for later tonight through Sunday Morning. Freeze headlines issued where ensemble probabilities for 32F or less temperatures were 80% or greater and frost advisories were 32-36F range is more likely. Urban heat island may result in marginal (32-34F) conditions in the immediate Grand Forks metro, however where this influence is less, temperatures are likely to drop below 32F during the early morning hours Saturday in Grand Forks and western Polk Counties.

There is still uncertainty in how much winds drop off (may hold around 10kt) in the Red River Valley (particularly in the south) due to the northerly component of the pressure gradient winds. There is also a signal for lingering pockets of mid level clouds, and the exact locations/coverage/timing in this type of pattern are often not well resolved. Current consensus favors southern part of our forecast area for these clouds, with more likely clearing in the north and northeast. These factors could complicate where widespread freeze conditions (32F or less) occur, and this factored into the decision on where headlines were drawn up. Even with clouds and winds around 10kt, low temperatures would be 36F or lower considering the cold nature of the air mass in place tonight. Where clearing/lighter winds occur within the frost advisory, impacts to sensitive vegetation would still be anticipated.

Sunday night/Monday AM frost/freeze potential: The pattern shift (building low pressure to the west/southwest) will result in moderating temperatures west to east and shifting low level flow to the southeast. The colder air mass will still remain in place across our eastern CWA and this is the type of set up where stronger gradient remains west allowing lighter winds to remain in place within the Red River Valley. There is a much better signal for clear skies Sunday night as well, so with better radiational conditions, it appears likely (greater than 60% probability) that freeze conditions will develop in northwest MN with a chance for frost/freeze within the Red River Valley. Chances for sub 36F temperatures are much lower due to this pattern shift west of the Red River Valley in ND Monday morning. We will ultimately need to consider additional frost/freeze headlines.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, with periods of VFR cumulus in the 4600-7000 ft agl range through sunset. North to northwest winds 15-20kt are expected through the afternoon, with periodic gusts across eastern to 30kt. Chances for frequent gusts in that range at KGFK are currently low, however there could still be a few before sunset. Decreasing winds below 12kt should follow typical daylight trends this evening, with increasing winds once again by late Sunday morning (above 12kt).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-054. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for NDZ039-049-052- 053. MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ001-002- 004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ003-029>032- 040.