textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms mainly in southern North Dakota into parts of west central Minnesota today into tonight. Isolated severe impacts with hail and wind hazards.

..Thunderstorm chances and severe potential tonight

The upper forcing is still well off to our southwest, but with ML CAPE around 2500 J/kg in south central ND some convective towers have already started to develop. Many of the CAMs bring most of the activity into southeastern ND later this evening well after 00Z as thunderstorms come east off the High Plains. But as stated above the CAMs have not been doing well lately. Any showers and thunderstorms that do develop have severe potential with deep layer shear around 50 kts, but there is also some displacement from the main forcing. HREF has the best probabilities of strong updraft helicity values mostly in SD with just some 10 to 20 percent chances in our far southwestern counties. Machine learning models also have severe chances around 5 to 15 percent in portions of our southern counties. Will continue to keep an eye on how storms develop, but for now the marginal risk for hail up to quarters and 60 mph seems reasonable.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR TAFs prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Maintained the PROB30 group for KFAR through late evening, however, thunderstorm chances remain quite uncertain in the current weather pattern. Overall, impact potential is minimal, but worth watching in the next several hours. Mid to high level smoke continues across much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this evening, with guidance slowly pushing the heavier smoke further south late in the TAF period. Winds are expected to remain light and variable tonight, with slightly higher values Thursday morning, generally 5-10 knots.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.