textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop over parts of the region through July 4th. Some storms could be strong.

UPDATE

Issued at 702 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The area of showers and t-storms that moved gradually eastward from SE Sask/NE Montana and NW ND is now pushing northeast and went just west and northwest of Devils Lake. The area of rain is over Towner into Cavaler counties. Lightning has just dissipated. Otherwise dry over the area with high clouds. Some pockets of fog Walhalla, Langdon, Cavalier since about 09z. Chatted with SPC and they will trim back the northern part of the marginal risk some in our cwa. Just limited instability today as drier dew pts have moved in.

UPDATE Issued at 823 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The sun setting resulting in lower levels stabilizing, and organized forcing remaining west and south of our region has pushed the organized severe threat outside of our CWA. Elevated instabilty will remain in place however and the activity upstream in Saskatchewan/northeast Montana is shown by the HRRR to possibly hold together and reach our northwest CWA after 10Z Friday morning (though it would be weakening if it did). The majority of other earlier CAMs still had this falling apart or just transitioning to elevated showers, so while it will be something to watch Friday morning, the severe threat this evening has ended.

..4TH OF JULY FORECAST

Instability remains across the region for the 4th of July, but the upper flow pattern again is very weak. Due to the ongoing festivities and outdoor activities for the 4th, we do want to note that there is the potential for heavy rainfall/showers and thunderstorms. However, there is very high uncertainty in the scope of showers and thunderstorms as this will largely depend on antecedent convection dropping outflow boundaries/convergent zones. With the lack of flow aloft as well, storms may be stationary in some locations, so flash flooding couldn't be ruled out. Overall this carries very low predictability. At a minimum, expect a 60% chance of showers/storms by the afternoon across the entire area, although the spatial extent of storms should remain scattered. Severe storm potential is very low thanks to very weak shear.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 702 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Devils Lake area is on the edge of potential MVFR ceilings that may move in for a couple hours on a northeast wind. Pocket of lower level moisture residing all night Langdon/Walhalla area. Otherwise anticipate VFR sky cover thru tonight. Light northeast or east wind 5 to 9 kts. Chance of any precipitation at or near any TAF site today and tonight too low to mention at this time.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.