textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions across west central and northwestern Minnesota this afternoon with relative humidity values approaching 25%.

- At least near critical fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend with a 20 percent chance for critical fire weather conditions on Friday.

..Tomorrow and beyond fire weather concerns

Similar RH values are expected for tomorrow afternoon, and there will be more of a pressure gradient as a surface trough moves through. While winds look higher than today, there is only around 30 kts to mix down and not much in the way of pressure rises. The 50th percentile of NBM has some 25 mph sustained winds in east central ND, but may be due to the NBM's bias in that area. The HREF joint probability for winds over 25 mph and RH values under 25 percent doesn't have much. Dropping the winds threshold down to 20 mph gives us some low chances for critical fire weather conditions on the MN side, around 20 percent. Definitely could see critical to near critical fire conditions for tomorrow afternoon, but not confident enough to go with a watch at this point. Still breezy into Saturday, but slightly cooler temps should bring higher RH values and there will be a low chance for showers. Less wind and similar RH values for Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions with cumulus over MN airports forming in the 6000-8000 ft range and more scattered to few coverage further west. More mid and high clouds moving into the area tonight and tomorrow morning, but conditions will remain VFR. Winds that are gusting up to 20 kts at a few of the TAF sites will become light and variable again this evening. Eventually winds will pick up again out of the southwest then northwest by the end of the period, with gusts up to 25 kts possible.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.