textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonally warm weather into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Upper ridging over the western Plains moves est tonight, with a closed low moving from southern Saskatchewan into Manitoba and Ontario by tomorrow. No precip expected in our area with the system, but winds will shift back around to the south and our stratus that is currently trying to scatter out in central ND and north central MN will likely fill back in. Cloudy skies for much of the night should keep temps from falling too much even with light winds, and also keep fog limited to the far western edge of the stratus deck. At this point that line seems like it will be mostly over central ND, but will watch the Devils Lake Basin in case it gets a bit more clearing than expected overnight. With cloud cover continuing, raised lows a bit and lowered highs for tomorrow, until the upper low moves off to the northeast of us and we get more of a westerly fetch to the wind for Saturday.

Northwesterly flow aloft sets up for Sunday and continues into next week. There is decent agreement on the ensemble members on a progressive shortwave moving through on Monday, but they also keep the region dry with probabilities of measurable rain near zero. Slightly better chances with another reinforcing shortwave Wednesday, but still the probability of anything more than a few sprinkles is less than 20 percent. Temps look to be on the warmer side of average.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

MVFR stratus remains in place over most of the state. Some clearing starting in northwestern MN north of KBJI, but not certain how far south the stratus will be breaking up. Expected the clouds to fill back in around sunset even where they do clear out. Kept ceilings mostly MVFR for all TAF sites through much of the evening and overnight. A few of the models try and push the clearing line into central or even eastern ND later tonight and tomorrow, but think they may be a bit too fast. Will have to watch this clearing line closely, as expect there will again be some fog along the west edge of the stratus deck but not sure how widespread. For now have everyone staying MVFR as winds become light and variable and then start to pick up out of the south by tomorrow morning. A few of the airports seeing improvement to VFR possible by the end of the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.