textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog will continue into the early afternoon in the northeastern Red River Valley.

- Wintry mix north of Highway 2 corridor may bring a light glaze of ice Sunday afternoon into evening. This may impact travel conditions, holding a 50% chance for advisory level impacts.

- Accumulating snow of at least 4 inches Tuesday evening into Thursday are forecast. At least advisory level impacts are expected, with a 50% chance for warning level impacts.

- Above average temperatures remain forecast this weekend into next week. This will continue to erode existing snowpack, with a low chance for hydrological impacts in the southern Red River basin.

UPDATE

Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Slowly been clearing the dense fog advisory as visibilities improve throughout the morning hours. There is still a strip of fog from about Crookston through Hallock. Therefore, extended the dense fog advisory through 2 PM for Kittson, Marshall and western Polk Counties.

UPDATE Issued at 530 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Extended the dense fog advisory further south to include all of west central Minnesota. Still seeing generally widespread fog through the northern and central Red River Valley, northwest Minnesota as well.

UPDATE Issued at 405 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Updated key messages to increase the probability for warning impacts to 50 percent. Confidence is increasing for the Tuesday through Thursday system as ensemble spread is generally on the decrease.

Made slight changes to fog timing this morning as many areas have now saturated, with widespread visibility reductions as low as 1/4 mile. The only area seeing slight improvements is the Devils Lake region; however, intermittent visibility reductions remain possible through mid morning.

UPDATE Issued at 1159 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Dense fog has been forming in locations where mid level clouds have been clearing including the Sheyenne River Valley from Cooperstown to Valley City and the far southern RRV (Richland/Wilkin Counties). It has been slower to expand in the north but once those mid level clouds clear we should see similar trends. Eventually a shift and increase in winds may help improve conditions in the west and south, but for now an expansion of the Dense Fog Advisory was warranted.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A small area of dense fog already developed in the eastern RRV of northwest MN. Surface high pressure building from the north will result in a period of very light winds and while mid level clouds could complicate radiational conditions, moisture pooling along a stalled frontal zone south of the surface high should support expanding dense fog in northeast ND and northwest MN. This is reflected in all current CAMs, NBM, and GLAMP trends. West and south of this frontal zone the signal is a bit less consistent and confidence lower. I went ahead and issue a Dense Fog Advisory for northeast ND down to Cass county in ND and northwest MN generally north of US 10 as this aligns with the locations north of the frontal zone tonight into Sunday morning.

..Snow impacts next Tuesday into Thursday

Ensemble guidance is coming into general agreement in the broader synoptic evolution of a negatively tiled upper trough moving through the Dakotas and Minnesota Tuesday into Thursday. The expected orientation of the wave is important in our expectations of how precipitation will evolve in our area.

In general, a negatively tilted trough progression commonly induces rich moisture to feed into the trough circulation in a TROWAL-like fashion - a feature that commonly focuses moisture into strong forcing for ascent. This is expected to occur with the upcoming trough.

As of now, the favored scenario between ensemble suites noses the TROWAL into eastern ND and northern MN late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Another aspect most ensemble guidance agrees upon is seasonably high instability feeding into the TROWAL/mid level circulation. The TROWAL and instability alone will induce increased precipitation rates, either in the form of heavy snow or moderate rain rates. This TROWAL, rich moisture content, and relatively mild temperatures within the column will promote heavy, wet-type snow, especially late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Despite a lack of downstream upper ridging to block the trough's forward progression, the upstream upper trough in the West re- deepens, lingering the wave in the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest into Thursday. This and the orientation of the upper wave will promote an inverted trough to extend well north/west of the trough. This means after the main energy of the trough moves east of our area, we will continue to see falling snow through much of Thursday, just relatively lighter rates of snow compared to late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Initially mild, above average temperatures ahead of the wave Tuesday will promote some of its precipitation to fall as rain before mixing with and eventually fully transitioning to snow. However, where and when this occurs exactly is a point of uncertainty. Areas further north toward the international border hold higher chances of seeing mostly snow compared to areas further south where rain is expected before transitioning to snow. Depending on where and how heavy rain may be, this could impact still ice covered tributaries in the southern Red River basin (more on this below).

Additionally, initially mild temperatures should serve to initially melt/compact snow upon contact. However, how long or where this will occur remains uncertain.

The points of uncertainty previously discussed lowers confidence in snow accumulations, which lowers confidence in location and severity of impacts. There is greater than 80% chance for at least 4 inches of snow generally north of US Highway 2 corridor; however, there is generally 20% chance for seeing between 6-9 inches of snow - again due to expected melting/compaction and lowered snow liquid ratios 10:1 or less during period of heaviest precipitation rates late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Despite uncertainty in snow accumulation amounts, likely heavy snow rates will bring reduced visibility, perhaps less than quarter mile at times.

At this time, impacts from blowing snow do not look to be a main driver of impacts. This is due to a lack of stronger cold air advection, relatively weak to moderate pressure gradient, weak pressure rises, and relatively mild temperatures to drive blowing snow impacts. Still, with breezy winds coinciding with falling snow Thursday, we could see blowing snow linger impacts to travel conditions.

Ultimately, reasonable expected outcome with this event will be at least advisory-level impacts from accumulating snow and greatly reduced visibility from heavy snow rates. There is still a 20% chance for seeing warning-type impacts with between 6-9 inches of snow accumulation still possible in our area.

...Above average temperatures; potential hydrological impacts...

Temperatures well above freezing during the day are forecast through the weekend into next week. Some locations in southeast ND are forecast to reach well into the 50s, perhaps some other locations in forested areas of west-central MN and western Red River Valley may also experience this degree of warmth Sunday. This will continue to erode the existing snowpack. With the forecast and recent above freezing temperatures, some tributaries in the southern Red River basin are already responding by gradual rise in river levels. Webcams of river ice also show swelling of river ice as well as liquid water on top of ice (namely Bois De Sioux near Doran MN).

While the snow water equivalent in the existing snowpack is not expected to drive hydrological impacts alone, impacts may ensue should sufficiently high enough rain fall on these same areas with this upcoming precipitation Tuesday into Thursday. River level guidance from HEFS in some areas like the southern Red River, and tributaries in southeast ND and west-central MN, there is around a 10% chance for river levels to reach into Minor flood stage by late next week. Again, this impact is contingent upon these areas receiving rain amounts exceeding half an inch, received in a short amount of time - of which most of this rainfall will turn to runoff due to seasonable frost layer still present in area soils.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Fog has been decreasing in coverage throughout the morning hours, with all TAF sites now showing marked improvement. While KTVF will ride the edge of a remaining patch of fog the next few hours, MVFR to VFR will prevail at all TAF sites throughout the afternoon and evening. However, just as we have seen the past several nights, fog is expected to develop again tonight, leading to visibility reductions. Therefore, FZFG and IFR conditions were added for a several hour window Monday morning into most TAFs. While fog is likely, there remains uncertainty in how long it lasts. Watch future TAF issuances for adjustments in the timing of fog formation and dissipation.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ001- 004-007.