textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- No significant weather related hazards through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The main upper trough continues to rotate to our north over central Canada, with cooler air aloft allowing for a fair amount of cumulus to develop over the region this afternoon. The cloud cover will dissipate after sunset, leaving surface high pressure and dew points in the 40s. At this point think we should stay above the 40 mark overnight, but a few spots could get into the low to mid 40s. A couple of the model runs have some light precip along the Canadian border tomorrow as a reinforcing shortwave rounds the base of the upper trough, but NBM probs of anything measurable are less than 10 percent. A stronger shortwave moving through could bring a few showers Thursday afternoon and evening, but main impacts look to be brief downpours and some lightning as surface based CAPE looks pretty limited and should remain under 1000 J/kg. Slightly cooler and quiet on Friday as a cold front and then high pressure come down behind the shortwave.

Ensembles are in pretty good agreement on northwesterly flow aloft continuing through the weekend and into the start of next week, with various weak shortwaves moving through. NBM has keyed in on one of those shortwaves coming through Sunday night and into Monday bringing fairly high probabilities of at least 0.01 of precip. Given uncertainty with the timing of such features in the long term see little reason to change it at this point. Temperatures seem fairly seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

A few high clouds over the area to start the day with a south- southwest wind under 10 mph. Winds will turn a bit more southwest and then later in the day west-southwest with a period of winds 10-20 kts gusts to 25 kts perhaps in NE ND and far NW MN ahead of a weak trough moving eastward along the Intl border. Mid clouds with this feature look to move along the border as well this aftn so did put in some BKN AC above 10000 ft agl for this DVL, GFK, TVF. Winds diminish tonight back to 10 kts or less.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.