textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant changes overnight as snow intensity in southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota has drastically lessened. Net result is that snow totals will be in the 1-6 inch range for most with less than 1 inch this morning additional.

- North winds will increase with gusts 33-38 kts today in the southern RRV, but it is likely to occur with little to no falling snow, and thus blowing snow impacts limited, and risk of blizzard conditions less than 10 percent.

- Freezing rain and accumulating snow may bring travel impacts Tuesday. The probability for advisory level impacts is 60 percent.

UPDATE

Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Updated to add aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Significant changes overnight to our system as snowfall in southeast ND into west central MN has lowered greatly and only some minor additional accumulations anticipated thru noon today in far SE ND and west central MN. Very fine snow crytals on radar and falling so accumulation from this not much.

Heaviest snow has shifted south into southern MN closer the upper low/sfc low. 925 mb winds avbl for mixing around 35 kts and 3 hour pressure rises not expected to be weak so not an overachieving wind today it appears. Cannot say no chance of blizzard conditions today in the south RRV but chance is less than 10 percent as it stands now at 09z.

Will let all advisories and warnings go on for now and let dayshift evaluate as winds pick up.

Snow totals look to run in the 1-6 inch range so far, but there hasnt been many reports yet.

UPDATE Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Snow continues across southeastern ND and west central MN, although there has been a recent decreasing trend in the radar returns. Still, a lot of strong synoptic lift will continue near our southern border, and with winds expected to pick up there will be continued difficult travel impacts. The high-res models have been trending a bit down in QPF so followed along, but still looks like we will get warning snow along our southern tier of counties. Public report of 3 inches in Ashby, MN before 9 PM seems to support this. The biggest question is what happens when winds pick up later tonight into tomorrow morning. Blowing snow table for the southern Red River Valley gives around a 70 percent chance for vis less than half a mile, but that is only with falling snow. Snow could be tapering off at that point, in which case probabilities drop to around 40 percent. Confidence isn't there for blizzard conditions, so will continue to keep headlines as they are at this point.

UPDATE Issued at 707 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Web cams and obs show portions of southeastern North Dakota into west central MN seeing visibility under a mile in many places with snow, with some extremely light snow starting to reach the ground in Fargo. A few of the spots near the South Dakota border show not great visibility due to the falling snow. Will continue to monitor as winds pick up later tonight, but for now will keep the headlines as they are.

..Near blizzard conditions

There is still a 50% chance for blizzard conditions to develop in far southeast ND and southern Red River Valley tonight into Sunday morning. While heavy snow rates combine with northeast/north winds 25-35 mph will likely bring its own whiteout conditions, the lack of strong cold air advection and more robust pressure gradient during the period of heavier snow rates lowers our confidence in true blizzard conditions developing. Hence, this is why we are messaging "near blizzard" conditions.

Winds do increase between 35-45 mph in these areas Sunday morning, but current guidance suggests only light snow will be falling. These snow rates and winds combine with temperatures in the teens do not quite match up to true blizzard conditions per blowing snow guidance from HREF. Should heavier rates linger longer and/or strongest winds with the strengthening pressure gradient arrive sooner, blizzard conditions will likely develop.

Should the latter scenario arise, an upgrade to Blizzard Warning will be necessary.

Into Sunday afternoon, blowing and drifting snow will likely continue in the southern Red River Valley. However, at this time, confidence is not high enough to extend any warning or advisory through Sunday afternoon, mainly due to uncertainties in wind strength and placement of newly received snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Drier air with gusty north winds moving in so Cloud base heights are VFR today and there is clear areas as well with that becoming more dominate later today and tonight. Gusty north winds the main issue gusts 30-35 kts with the RRV (GFK/FAR) today thru 00z lesser winds east and west of the valley.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038- 039. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ049- 052-053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ003- 024-027-028. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ029>032-040.