textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for near critical fire weather several days this week.

- Warming up this weekend with potential for heat impacts.

UPDATE

Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Clearing is progressing nicely southward over the fcst area with partly cloudy, mainly clear sky NE ND and NW MN upstream. Soundings indicate likely CU today with daytime heating as there is enough moisture near the 800 mb layer. Winds today look breezy with gusts mid 20 kt range as we mix up to 780-800 mb level. Coordination in regards to fire weather headlines, MIFC would like one more day of SPS for near critical fire weather due to winds today and still dry fuels, regardless of RH values.

..Synopsis

Upper ridge that has been driving our region's weather for the past week or two has flattened some with the approach of a seasonably strong upper shortwave trough moving through ON into the northern Great Lakes region. This is allowing cooler, relatively drier air into the region from the north behind a series of cold fronts.

Behind these fronts today and tonight will allow temperatures to be closer to average, as well as bringing gusty northwest / north winds today, tonight, and Tuesday. Relatively cooler and drier air aloft atop of seasonable low level moisture combined with forcing aloft from the passing shortwave trough will allow widely scattered showers and storms to encroach upon our area from north to south, generally after 5 PM into this evening. Increased momentum in the lower to mid level portions of the cloud-bearing layer will allow gusty downdrafts resultant from storms - some of which may be in the 40 to 50 mph range.

Winds will stay gusty overnight behind a reinforcing cold front coincident with moderately strengthen surface pressure rises. Winds reinvigorate out of the north Tuesday afternoon with the help of daytime mixing and increased flow aloft lingering within the region.

Daytime RH values starting tomorrow and lasting into mid to late week are forecast in the 30-50% range. This combined with gusty winds tomorrow, and potentially more gusty winds late in the week combined with warming temperatures, will drive potential to see fire weather concerns. This is also driven by rapidly drying fuels within the region after recent spell of hot and dry conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 706 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

I do think scattered CU will develop today as we warm. Sufficient moisture at 850 mb and convective temps low enough upper 60s/low 70s. Better chance for BKN coverage CU is east of the Red River, with potentially borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings for a time at TVF and BJI. North winds 10-20 kt sustained gusts 25kts or so. Winds go calm tonight and sky mainly clear.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.