textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected over parts of eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota today.

- Cold overnight and early morning temperatures are expected through Monday, with frost and freeze conditions over parts of the region.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Update to key messages to reflect expiration of frost advisory this morning. Additional frost and freeze products may be needed for the overnight/morning period tonight/Sunday morning as mostly clear skies, decreasing winds, and colder air mass loft remains in place. Details will be ironed out as latest data continues to roll in by midday.

UPDATE Issued at 715 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

The Friday evening shift set the stage for lower dew points and RH values from what was in the NBM by going with more HRRR based on past 2 days. That was kept. Soundings suggest a very well mixed layer to around 780 mb this afternoon with about 26 kts to mix down within the RRV. NBM gusts and winds seemed reasonable and kept. Kept the SPS for near critical fire weather in WC MN due to lowest RH values mid 20s percent and then in coord with BIS did add near critical in HWO for similar RH values for DVL area into southeast ND for this afternoon.

It was agreed to hold off mentioning any frost/freeze headlines for this upcoming night until the current one goes away this morning. Narrow cloud band Fargo to Park Rapids area otherwise skies mainly clear, exception Roseau-Warroad where clouds dropping southeast from Canada. Low temps in most areas 32-35 in NE ND and far NW MN with pockets of 20s via NDAWN.

..Frost and freeze headlines

With many spots putting out plants for Mother's Day, we are starting to issue frost and freeze headlines starting this weekend. NBM probabilities for temperatures less than 36 degrees are 50 percent and higher along and north of Highway 200, although there are some warmer temps progged for the northern Red River Valley. With the shortwave moving through this evening and bringing some showers and cloud cover, conditions will not be ideal for frost formation but enough of a chance of getting below 36 to put out an advisory for tonight. More widespread cold temperatures expected tomorrow night, with high probabilities of under 36 all the way down to the South Dakota border. Chances for under 32 degrees are over 80 percent in portions of northeastern ND and northwestern MN, with some 30 to 40 percent even of under 28 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 715 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Do expect VFR sky and vsby thru tonight. For TAF locations predominately scattered into early aftn, then watching for potential BKN cloud deck moving into NE ND and NW MN this aftn affecting GFK-TVF-BJI. Cloud bases look to be 5000 ft agl and higher. Gusty NW winds today....went max gusts in TAFs around 25 kts but briefly higher may occur this afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.