textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast in eastern North Dakota this afternoon.

- Next chance for widespread rain comes Friday and Saturday, with overall light amounts under half an inch and very low chance for thunder.

UPDATE

Issued at 1021 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Main update to adjust Key Message away from freezing temperatures as temperatures have risen above freezing.

Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast today in eastern North Dakota as southerly winds increase this afternoon 20-30 mph coupled with relative humidity values around 30 percent and lingering dry fuels.

Patchy shallow fog this morning has also since diminished.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

We went ahead and issued an SPS for patchy dense fog as observations are starting to become more frequent, but webcams still show the shallow and isolated nature of it. With sunrise ongoing, the expectation is for things to clear out over the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Some guidance is beginning to hint at fog potential along the the eastern edge of the valley tonight once winds go calm with soundings ranging from a 3-5 degree dewpoint spread to a full on low level inversion and ground fog. Unsure whether clear skies prevail with the calm winds or if patchy ground fog develops but even with a worst case scenario would expect isolated pockets as low as a 1/4 to 1/2 mile with more widespread 1-2 mile vis from Fergus Falls north to Hallock and Crookston. Would say that is about a 30% chance.

..Frost and freeze headlines

Clouds should clear out as the upper trough moves east, and with high pressure overhead, winds will become light and variable overnight. There will be a good setup for radiational cooling, and dew points currently in the low 30s over southern Manitoba should be down in our area by tonight. Temps should drop to near or below the freezing mark in most locations, with a 60 to 90 percent chance of 32 or lower for much of eastern ND into northwestern MN. Probabilities of less than 32 are much lower for some reason in west central MN from Elbow Lake up to Detroit Lakes, with chances 20 percent or less.Kept Grant, Otter Tail, and western Becker as frost advisory but have the rest of the CWA in a Freeze Warning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Shallow fog this morning will improve fairly quickly and within the next 2 hours, giving way to VFR conditions. Winds will initially be light and variable this morning but will increase from the south towards the afternoon hours. Once this occurs, winds will remain elevated through the end of the TAF period, with the highest speeds generally in eastern North Dakota, decreasing as you head further east. No other aviation impacts are expected at this time.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.