textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Several light snow chances with below average temperatures through the weekend.

- A stronger system arrives on Tuesday, with a 60% chance of at least advisory level impacts.

UPDATE

Issued at 1000 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Flurries/light snow continues to linger over the southern RRV and parts of northwest MN with some clearing of lower clouds now spreading in northeast ND and parts of far northwest MN. There is still a corridor of low clouds (3500 FT AGL) continuing to linger in the immediate northern RRV bordered by the clearing areas. The next mid level wave is to the west and may start to bring the next round of light snow and stratus into the region later tonight/Saturday morning (best chances in the southern RRV as wave dives southeast).

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

An area of light snow/flurries that developed along/ahead of a secondary cold front is tracking to the southeast. Most of this is non accumulating/flurries, however there have been some pockets with slightly higher rates where vis has dropped 2-5sm and in those areas a dusting has been observed. This should continue to progress to the southeast while additional flurries may linger with stratus this evening. Adjustments were made to reflect these trends.

..Tuesday Clipper System

By late Monday, another area of low pressure will develop in the lee of the Canadian Rockies in Alberta. This wave looks to be the strongest in the parade of shortwaves. An interesting thing to note this far out is the lack of spread in modeled scenarios. Take the 12z GEFS for example. Every member develops an area of surface low pressure in Alberta, tracking it southeastward towards our FA by sometime during the day on Tuesday. The only real differences are how fast the clipper is, which will impact the exact timing of when precipitation starts/ends, along with how far north the low tracks. For being 4 days out, it is pretty remarkable that the differences in the systems track from ensembles members is on the order of counties, not half of states which seems to be more typical at this timeframe.

It is important to stress, however, that even though the general evolution of this system seems fairly certain, the small differences that remain will play a major role in determining the degree and type of impacts at any one location, such as in your own backyard. The strong warm air advection ahead of this system will likely crust at least some of the snowpack across the southern FA, limiting its blowability and increasing reliance on new snowfall to reduce visibility. Warm temperatures at the surface and aloft will likely complicate precipitation type as well for some locations, and impact snow to liquid ratios elsewhere. Snowfall ratios will likely not be consistent throughout the event either, as colder air works in on the backside. Add on top that conceptually, systems such as this one usually have the heaviest snow (associated with warm air advection and frontogensis) displaced to the north of where the strongest winds (associated with the largest surge of cold air advection behind the southward draped cold front) occur. EFI highlights this difference well, with both snow and wind showing a shift of tails, but in drastically different areas. Therefore, at this time it is too early to pinpoint where which exact type of impacts will occur. This system will be one to closely monitor over the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 532 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Widespread MVFR stratus is still in place across eastern ND and northwest MN, with an area of light snow (brief vis reductions to 2-6sm) tracking across the region. There are upstream trends of clearing in Canada and north central ND on satellite/obs, however additional pockets of MVFR stratus are developing just to the north of the Red River Valley in Manitoba which would continue to track south to KGFK/KFAR. Guidance supports all locations becoming VFR tonight reflecting the areas of clearing well, but not picking up well on the newer development. Considering the current trends it is more likely that MVFR lingers much of the night at KGFK/KFAR with VFR improvement not favored until Saturday (after 12Z) when a drier northeast BL flow is shown to develop.

Winds are still out of the north 10-14kt but should continue a downward trend as surface high pressure builds south, then eventually turns northeast Saturday as low pressure rebuilds to the southwest. Another period of light snow may then develop to the west and track east across southern ND/west central MN with this low pressure system Saturday afternoon, but confidence is lower in coverage/aviation impacts with that fast moving/ weaker wave.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.