textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds increasing this morning into the afternoon with gusts up to 55 mph possible in northeast North Dakota. - A strong winter storm will impact the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Looks like highest winds and snow impacts focus very late Wed night into Thursday morning, High chance of blizzard conditions in northern half of the Red River valley and northeast North Dakota.

UPDATE

Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Continuing to watch winds as they increase out of the west as the surface low moves east into Ontario. Winds across northwestern ND have shifted to the northwest with some cold air advection, and earlier this morning there were some gusts up to 58 to 59 mph north of Williston. However, gusts currently in central ND with the initial push of the CAA are in the 50 to 55 range. At this point, will keep winds high advisory but will watch for gusts getting close to warning criteria.

UPDATE Issued at 912 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Adjusted cloud cover for the current satellite trends, as some more cirrus starts to move in from the west. A few of the high resolution models have winds gusting up to warning criteria this morning, however, most of the rest of the ensemble members seem to keep gusts below 58 mph. Will keep advisory going unless we start to get a stronger signal for higher winds.

UPDATE Issued at 607 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

At 12z the warm airmass has made it east and inching into the Red River valley. Upper 30s to mid 40s present just west of the valley....highest temps on the higher elevations from Walhalla to west of Cavalier with mid 40s. Winds are lackluster in terms of strength. A few southwest wind gusts in northwest ND 25-30 kts...but overall most locations haven't increased in wind speed all that much so far. It is likely to change though after daybreak as winds increase and satellite shows a decent amount of clearing of the clouds moving into NE ND. SPC mesoanalysis shows 45 kts at 925 from the west and a west-northwest wind of 60 kts at 850 mb. But mixing is quite shallow, under 925 mb as it stand currently.

..Wednesday-Thursday

Colder air moves in tonight, but south winds return Wednesday and temps warm back up to near 32F or a bit higher by aftn. 32F along the border to upper 30s far south. The consensus model track is for low pressure to intensify quickly early Wednesday in southern Alberta and move into SW Saskatchewan around noon Wednesday then to south of Regina by 6 pm Wednesday with tight frontal zone just north or right along the Manitoba border. Looks like moisture increases so some light rain and drizzle likely to develop over the area Wed aftn into the evening. Freezing rain/drizzle along the border. Of note it does appear the low pressure system will be a tad slower moving east and will be near Cavalier ND close to 06z Thu and then in northeast MN around 12z Thu. If this timing and location of track holds, then this more northern track would keep warmer airmass over more of the area later than prev fcst. Current fcst temps have 32F temps around Grand Forks as late as 06z before falling. How much snow drops south behind the low Wed overnight into Thursday morning is highly uncertain. WPC shows 2-4 inch snowfall basically along and north of Hwy 2 NBM more like 1-3 inch. Farther south you go less snow there will be falling. Winds do increase with a strong cold advection northerly wind push with 925 mb winds 50-55 kts centered around 12-15z Thu. This should be able to mix down and when combined with falling snow gives a high chance for near blizzard or blizzard conditions (80 pct chance) for at least northeast ND and the northern half of the Red River valley.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Currently VFR with some cirrus overhead, with strong west winds starting to gust to 30 kts in some spots and an even stronger low level jet overhead creating some low level wind shear. Will see a shift to a more northwesterly direction with gusts up above 40 kts in some locations. The shift to the northwest will also bring in some MVFR ceilings to the region, starting in the KDVL area and spreading east throughout the evening. The MVFR ceilings should improve by tomorrow morning, with decreasing winds overnight eventually becoming light and variable. Winds pick up again out of the south by the end of the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ001>004-007- 029. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ005-006-008- 009-013>017-022>024-027-028.