textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and gusty winds from this evening into early Wednesday morning. This may degrade travel conditions, particularly within the southern Red River Valley.

- Intervals of below average temperatures through the rest of the week, along with snow chances after Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 726 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A few flurries have been reported under the radar returns currently sliding over northeastern ND. I sped up the timing of PoPs to account for this light snow. Otherwise, temperatures have continued to slowly rise overnight nearly area wide as our next system approaches. The only exception to this warming trend is the southern Red River Valley, where a deeper snowpack has kept temperatures stubbornly stuck in the single digits below zero.

..Tuesday into Wednesday Snow and Wind

A shortwave upstream over the southern Canadian Prairies is propagating towards our FA this morning on water vapor imagery. With a surface low over Saskatchewan and a warm front draped to the south over western ND, a broad area of mid level WAA resides across North Dakota into southern Manitoba. Radar returns have broken out within this WAA regime from near Minot and points to the north. Dry air at the surface is limiting much from reaching the ground on the US side of the International Border at this time, but as the atmospheric column saturates, snow will begin. First in the Devils Lake Basin, pushing south and east Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Snowfall totals will be light (a few tenths of an inch) due to the weak and transient nature of the forcing at play. Totals will be highest in northwestern MN, where the WAA regime will last a little longer compared to the rest of the FA. Even here in northwestern MN, snowfall totals wil likely struggle to exceed an inch.

As the cold front swings through Tuesday evening, a bubble of cold air advection will propagate through the FA from northwest to southeast. Breezy winds out of the north are forecasted to persist into Wednesday morning, with sustained winds approaching 25 mph within the Red River Valley. With a blowable snowpack on the ground in the southern Red River Valley, the blowing snow table gives patchy blowing and drifting snow for Wednesday morning.

...Continued Cold and Late Week Snow

Our active northwest flow pattern will continue beyond Wednesday, as ensembles indicate yet more wave(s) from Friday into the weekend. At this time, the evolution of each wave is highly uncertain, as ensembles placement of synoptic features varies from run to run. This period will need watching as it approaches, but due to the low predictability at this range from the wide spread in potential scenarios, no major changes can be made to the going forecast that contains a spattering of low snow chances and cooler temperatures from late week through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Ceilings will be the main aviation concern throughout the TAF period, although winds will become gusty late today into early Wednesday. All TAF sites are starting out at VFR except for occasionally KDVL, where lake effect clouds and occasional light snow continue to persist. As we work through today, we will see a general lowering of ceilings, with MVFR prevailing by late afternoon at all TAF sites. This will be accompanied by light snow. As snow ends from north to south overnight, northerly winds will increase. Wind gusts up to 25 knots are forecast, strongest at KFAR and KGFK. Clouds will slowly break up and ceilings slowly rise at the tail end of this TAF period, but the better improvement likely resides just beyond the end of this TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.