textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely Monday in northwest Minnesota. Near critical conditions may develop in southeast North Dakota if gusty winds align with low relative humidity.

- Additional chances for near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected through mid-week.

- An unsettled pattern brings rain and thunderstorm chances to the region Thursday and rain and snow chances Friday into next weekend.

..FIRE WEATHER

Large scale warm temperatures through the week combined with limited moisture return are expected to create near critical to critical fire weather conditions through the week.

For tomorrow, southerly winds are expected to increase with sustained winds generally between 20-30 mph, with occasional gusts to 40 mph by late morning/early afternoon as a strong southerly jet propagates east. Moisture return from southerly winds is expected to be minimal with dewpoints ranging in the low to mid 30s, allowing for relative humidity values to approach 20% by mid to late afternoon. The maxima of the jet is expected to be over northwest Minnesota when peak mixing will occur, so the expectation is for critical conditions (low RH and high wind gusts) to mainly remain in northwest Minnesota. Having said that, critical conditions could spread westward into eastern North Dakota if winds align with low relative humidity. At a minimum, expect near critical conditions to develop in southeast North Dakota. Towards the mid to late afternoon, a weak cold front may bring relative humidity values up to 30-50% briefly, but a substantial wind shift of 90-150 degrees is expected behind this, so fire concerns are expected to continue.

With limited precipitation expected through the week and ridging amplifying across the Northern Plains, ERC maximums should continue to rise with HRB values indicating ongoing dead fuels. These combined with relative humidity values through the week lends to expectations that at least near critical conditions can be expected through Wednesday every afternoon with the potential to push into critical conditions on days with gustier winds. At this time, the greatest probability timeframe for that is Wednesday afternoon. While NBM relative humidities appear fairly high (25-30%), this is mainly due to limited CAM impact on NBM output and will likely fall towards more critical criteria as we get closer to mid-week. The heightened fire weather pattern will eventually end as a widespread precipitation system pushes into the region late week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR throughout the TAF period, but gusty winds will bring aviation impacts on Monday. Overnight, winds will slowly increase out of the south. A period of LLWS is forecasted at KDVL late tonight into early Monday. LLWS may briefly sneak into KGFK, but was left out of the TAF as predictability on this occuring is low. Winds will increase drastically after sunrise at KGFK, KFAR and KTVF. Southwest winds with gusts of 30 knots or greater are forecasted for several hours from mid morning into the early afternoon at both KGFK and KFAR. These 30+ knot gusts may creep into KTVF, but at this time it appears to be a lower probability scenario, and if it were to occur, it would be brief (1-2 hours) in duration. Winds decrease and switch to the west late in the TAF period, but will remain elevated above 12 knots into the evening hours.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.