textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Blowing snow will impact travel conditions within the northeast Red River Valley through afternoon. While local/brief instances of near blizzard conditions remain possible in open country, the chance for blizzard conditions has diminished to near zero percent.

- Snowfall may impact travel conditions Monday afternoon into evening in portions of eastern North Dakota into west-central Minnesota. The chance for advisory level impacts is 40%.

..Potential impacts from snowfall Monday

The next clipper-type system to move through the region will quickly move parallel to the flow aloft and, more importantly, parallel to the zone of baroclinicity. This will promote banded snowfall from warm air advection (WAA) over this zone of baroclinicity as well as weak to moderate vorticity advection aloft as the wave quickly migrates southeast.

Overall, forcing for ascent will be spatially small; and the progressive movement of the wave will traverse the clipper through the region relatively quickly. While the progressive and spatially small nature of forcing would promote less potential for accumulation, the parallel movement of forcing/precipitation to the flow aloft and temperature gradient will serve to increase chance for residence time of snowfall over any particular location.

Additionally, there is a strong signal for steep lapse rates aloft be nest within and just above the DGZ, collocated with strongest forcing aloft. This will serve to locally enhance snowfall rates through convection and efficient snow production. There is also a weak signal for frontogensis near the WAA regime, which can also locally enhance snowfall.

These mesoscale factors lend credence to locally heavy snowfall rates to accompany narrow bands of snow, of which will lead to snow accumulations between 1-3 inches of snow.

Some convective, high resolution guidance does depict a scenario where very locally high amounts in the 5-6 inch range are possible. This scenario would depend on narrow bands of heavy snow to reside over local areas for extended period of time as the progressive clipper moves through.

As of now, ensemble and high resolution guidance bring snowfall from north-central ND, southeast ND, into west-central MN. This includes portions of the western Devils Lake basin, Sheyenne River Valley, southern Red River Valley, into west-central MN.

Timing of snow into these areas is favored to be during the afternoon Monday within ND, and closer to late afternoon/early evening into west-central MN.

Heavy snow rates will likely reduce visibility between quarter to half a mile, perhaps at times below quarter mile. Weak winds less than 15 mph are forecast to accompany this, with visibility reductions purely driven by heavy snow rates.

Areas that see locally higher amounts of 3 or more inches as well as heavy snow rates will see impacts to travel. There is currently a 40% chance for advisory-level impacts in these aforementioned areas Monday afternoon into evening.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 232 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Impacts to aviation are forecast to all TAF sites through at least 03Z due to lowered ceilings and reduced visibility from snow and/or blowing snow.

Widespread stratus clouds in the IFR to MVFR range dominate the majority of the region. This is forecast to be the dominate condition through 03Z. Thereafter, confidence lessens in how widespread low stratus remains with drier air moving into the region from the north. Chose to reflect scattering of the low ceiling, but this is a low confidence forecast. Lowered ceilings could extend beyond 12Z in some locations.

Light to moderate snow will lower visibility in the 1-5SM range through 00Z, with lowest visibilities only occurring on a more intermittent basis. This was reflected with TEMPO groups. Snow becomes less widespread between 00Z-09Z, of which reduced visibility from snow is expected to become more sporadic.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ001-002-004-007.