textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over parts of southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota Monday afternoon and early evening. Hail to 1 inch and wind gusts to 60 mph would be the main threats.

..Severe Thunderstorm Risk Monday

The severe risk Monday in our CWA will be dependent on the timing of the cold front and position of the the warm sector ahead of this during the afternoon/peak heating period. Initially elevated morning showers/storms may be progressing through the region ahead of the front and this could result in more cloud cover limiting initiation in our area as well. A lot of guidance places the front near west central MN by time afternoon destabilization occurs, narrowing the window and the region where stronger/severe storm could initiate, while some 12Z guidance is just slow enough for the window to include southeast ND. Shear profiles are top heavy, but there is enough mid/upper level winds with the wave passing to the north to support effective shear values 30kt+ as the front passes. Mid level lapse rates are marginally steep (generally 7-7.4 C/km) and the result in modest CAPE values in the warm sector. If severe storms were to develop lower end severe impacts appear to be favored (quarter size hail/60 mph winds).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions with a few high clouds starting to move in from the west. A bit of 5SM visibility in the northern Red River Valley but at this point looks like will remain out of the TAF sites so will leave BR and FG out for now. Light and variable winds overnight, eventually shifting to the south and southwest at all TAF sites with some lingering cumulus that will clear out in the next few hours. Winds that are northwesterly around 10 kts will become light and variable as the center of the surface high moves in overnight. Can't rule out some patchy ground fog developing towards morning with mostly clear skies and light winds, but location uncertainty is high and will not include in the TAFs at this point. Winds will shift around to the south and southwest around 10 kts tomorrow morning. By afternoon, a cold front coming through will shift winds to the northwest then then, starting at KDVL and moving east. Gusts up to 20 kts will be possible.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.