textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Warmer than normal temperatures through next week.
- There is the potential for a more active period towards the end of next week. Predictability is low at this time for impacts.
..Synopsis
Southerly winds prevail this afternoon and evening as shortwave H5 ridging develops along northwest flow. A much warmer air mass moves into the Northern Plains heading into Monday, with highs climbing well into the 30s to mid 40s from north to south.
Slightly cooler temps are in store for Tuesday as a weak trough traverses the flow and the ridge flattens. Warmer temps return on Wednesday as low level flow turns westerly, allowing afternoon temperatures to reach well into the 50s across parts of southeast North Dakota and the southern Red River Valley. Temps will be slightly cooler for areas north of Highway 200, generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.
A range of potential forecast solutions begins to emerge from Thursday onward, as zonal flow turns slightly southwest. There is a large amount of ensemble disagreement surrounding how amplified the southwest flow actually becomes, with some members hanging onto zonal flow well into the weekend. In either case, there is a signal for a more active period; however, details will largely depend on several factors that are yet to be represented in synoptic models. At this time, overall predictability is very low, with a general trend towards potential impacts somewhere in the Northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026
VFR conditions prevail outside of stratus this afternoon. KGFK, KTVF, KFAR, and KBJI are all seeing VFR ceilings, with KDVL showing MVFR stratus. Flurries are expected to coincide with stratus coverage through the afternoon. Scattered to broken cloud cover is expected to persist through the late evening before diminishing overnight. Look for winds to increase out of the south to southwest, however, with LLWS expected after roughly 08Z for most locations. Wind gusts during the overnight period should range from 20-25 knots.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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