textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures are expected through early week, with a return to seasonably cool temperatures for the second half of the week.

..Synopsis

A mid/upper level shortwave ridge is moving over the Northern Plains while a weak shortwave trough moves across the Canadian prairies. The general trend is for a deep dry air mass to remain in place, though this trough passage to the north will result in increasing unidirectional west-northwest flow resulting in increasing WAA in the BL and mild temperatures Monday along with breezy to windy conditions (a few gusts around 35 mph). As higher level clouds clear we should see a period of good mixing and daytime heating Monday and highs should reach the upper 50s for many locations in the valley and potential around 60 (NBM 90th percentile). This is almost 20 degrees above average for this time of November.

The larger scale evolution of the pattern will be north- northwesterly in response to larger troughing developing in eastern Canada and several shortwaves and a cold front passing Tuesday and Wednesday bring seasonably cooler temperatures back to the region for the second half of the week. There should be enough organized forcing to bring at least chances for light rain to the region, however preceding deep dry air in place may limit coverage of measurable rainfall (virga and sprinkles may be more common). Still, NBM shows a 20-30% chance for up to 0.1" rainfall during the Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning period.

There is a strong signal in all ensembles than upper level ridging and anomalous heights/temperatures aloft return by late weekend and we should see a return to above average temperatures by next weekend and early the next week. The net result will be continued dry conditions and a return to above average temperatures, while dry conditions persist into early next week. The eventual breakdown of the larger scale ridge would at least set up the region for southwest flow and precipitation chances (rain) may increase at some point the next week if that were to occur (beyond the current 7 day period).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN through the TAF period. There is an area of MVFR stratus over north central MN but this is remaining northeast of the vicinity of KBJI and starting to break up due to daytime mixing and drier air already in place in northwest MN.

Winds are starting to decrease below 12kt and shift from the northwest to west as a weak surface trough axis is moving into eastern ND/northwest MN. This should bring a period of light and variable winds this afternoon and evening before southerly flow 10-13kt increases on the back side of this boundary late evening/overnight. Eventually a front passes and gradient and winds aloft increase Monday resulting in increasing westerly flow and increasing gusts as mixing picks up after sunrise. There is a low chance for gusts around 30kt Monday afternoon in eastern ND (after the current TAF period).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.