textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Risk of severe storms starting Saturday late afternoon in northeast ND and expanding eastward Saturday night with periodic severe storm chances Sunday and Monday. All hazards are possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A few thunderstorm cells have developed in southeastern Manitoba and have been slowly drifting towards Lake of the Woods. However, cells that move over the lake rapidly diminish in strength due to the cold water. Still, could see a few sprinkles or perhaps a lightning strike or two in our far northeastern counties as we head into the afternoon, so adjusted POPs a bit. Fairly quiet for most of the CWA further south, with mostly just some fair weather cu.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Updated graphics for the web and social media for the Saturday late day/night and also for the Sunday and Monday periods for severe t-storm chances. SPC had a very good discussion on the conditions expected for the late Saturday thru Monday period.

Low level moisture and light winds creating an expanse of fog, locally dense, from Bemidji into Fargo and Wahpeton. It is not a solid area though with visibilities varied. And do expect a quick burnoff.

UPDATE Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have diminished this evening, with only an isolated shower or two remaining around Lake of the Woods. Look for lows in the 50s overnight in most areas, along with light and variable winds.

..Severe potential this weekend and next week

With upper flow transitioning to southwesterly, the pattern looks to be warmer and more active with several weak shortwaves coming through. The timing of these shortwaves is still not resolvable at this point, but several rounds of thunderstorms look possible. The position of the ridge axis would make it seem that the best chances for Saturday afternoon and tonight for severe will be over the western Dakotas, but can't rule out some convection impacting the Devils Lake Basin that night. CWASP 50th percentile probabilities of 60 or more transition a bit further east for Sunday into next week. However, much will depend on timing of weak lead shortwaves and how much destabilization we get. Pattern looks active but details uncertain at this point.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions at all TAF sites with a few cumulus clouds around 4000-6000 ft and some higher clouds expected to move in later tonight. Convection should stay north of the TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Winds will become light and variable late this afternoon and evening, then pick up out of the southeast close to 10 kts by tomorrow morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.