textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional chances for thunderstorms exist over the holiday weekend, with a level 1 out of 5 chance each day. The main impacts for any storms that become severe will be ping pong ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph.

..Marginal severe chances tonight, tomorrow and Monday

Some MU CAPE still around, but SPC mesoanalysis page has a lot of CIN with the mixed layer CAPE. Most of the CAMs don't have much over eastern ND until later tonight when the shortwave over WY comes northeast, but given recent poor performance do not have much trust in their solutions. There will be plenty of MU CAPE again overnight, although bulk shear will be fairly modest around 30 kts. Some convection could be ongoing tomorrow morning, with HREF showing a low probability of strong updraft helicity tracks in west central MN. Another shortwave coming through could bring more thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon and evening, although much will depend on how the morning activity plays out and if the atmosphere recovers. Better shear looks to be in store for Monday, although instability is more uncertain. At this point, can't rule out an isolated instance of hail up to ping pong balls or 60 mph winds through the rest of the holiday weekend, but confidence in exactly when and where is low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

MVFR conditions prevail at KGFK this morning, with IFR conditions at KBJI. All other sites are VFR with mostly clear skies and occasional scattered cloud cover. Clouds will increase through the day, with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Left PROB30 groups for -TSRA consistent as timing remains mostly consistent in the previous several model runs. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible with this system. Hazards could include large hail and damaging wind gusts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.