textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy accumulating snow will impact areas along and north of Highway 2 this evening into Wednesday night. Snowfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected. Elsewhere, snow is still forecasted tonight through Wednesday, but totals will be lower.

- Widespread precipitation and melted snowpack brings a low risk for flooding impacts in the southern Red River Valley.

..Winter Storm

Satellite displays a dynamic system this afternoon over the high plains. Strong ascent and warm air advection over the Dakotas is causing regional radar to light up with echos. Enough dry air in the column is keeping most of these returns from reaching the ground. However, this will quickly change during the late afternoon and evening hours.

As the low to our south near the SD/NE state line rapidly deepens, a strong band of frontogensis will work from south to north across our FA. Everything is in place to help fuel heavy precipitation rates, ranging from a low level jet of up to 70 knots feeding moisture into an atmospheric column that features lapse rates of up to 7 C/km. This northward lifting band will form during the evening hours, and persist much of tonight. Precipitation will start as rain, heavy at times. With instability present, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially in the southern Red River Valley into west central MN.

As temperatures fall this evening into tonight, moderate to heavy rain will transition to heavy snow. This transition will occur first near the International Border. Snowfall rates of 1+ inch per hour are forecasted within this band. Right now, the most likely area to experience 1+ inch per hour rates is along or just north of the Highway 2 corridor. Global ensembles have been locked onto the idea for the past day or so of a further south and slower storm. Current placement of the developing low, along with where we are observing pressure falls in northern NE/southern SD would seem to confirm this. Recent CAM model guidance has also fallen in line with the idea of a more southern track over the past 12 hours or so. Overnight, radar trends will need to be monitored in case another tier of counties south needs to be added to either the warning or advisory headlines.

When you combine the heavy snowfall rates with easterly winds of up to 30 mph, blizzard-like conditions are expected for at least several hours in the winter storm warning area. These visibility reductions will be strongly tied to snowfall rates. Snowfall rates will decrease in intensity Wednesday morning into the afternoon, with wandering bands of heavier snow still likely area wide. Conditions will improve Wednesday night, as snow finally lightens up. However, for areas that see significant accumulations, severe drifting snow will continue to drive impacts even if visibilities improve.

As for snowfall totals, a general 5 to 10 inches of snow is forecast for counties along and north of US Highway 2. There will be pockets that receive more then this, especially in northeastern North Dakota where the residence time of the heavy snow band looks to be a bit longer, with someone likely to see a foot of snow. One way to gauge how much snow your location will receive is before going to bed, ask yourself when you look outside, is it snowing? If you are already seeing snow at 8-11 PM, for the remainder of the event you will experience snow, and your totals will be towards the upper end of the snowfall range. If it is still raining at 11PM, that will eat into snowfall totals, so when you wake up Wednesday morning, do not be surprised if only a couple of inches have accumulated. This will particularly be true in places like Grand Forks, Hillsboro, Thief River Falls, and Bemidji. One last impact to touch on: rainfall totals just south of where we transition to snow will be quite heavy, a quarter inch or greater. If this occurs over an urban area, where ice is blocking drainages, ponding of water may occur.

Overall, this will be a dynamic system with a wide variety of impacts. Please continue to monitor the forecast, and heed any warnings and advisories that have been issued for this evening into Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The first six hours of the TAF period will be highly uncertain and dependent on a wide range of factors. Widespread rain is expected to develop this evening, changing over to snow at some point and at different times depending on how far north you are. As this occurs, MVFR to IFR ceilings will develop. Rain and mist may bring visibilities down to MVFR, but once snow begins to fall, expect visibilities to fall to 1/2SM to 1SM, with a brief period of potentially heavy snow with visibilities 1/4SM or less. The most likely timeframe and locations for this is around midnight and at GFK/DVL respectively.

After midnight, pretty much most TAF sites will have falling snow with the potential exception of FAR. FAR may continue to have rain lingering through 10z, but it will eventually become snow. Heavy snowfall rates should gradually diminish after 10z for all TAF sites, but snow will continue through the end of the TAF period. Winds will eventually become northwesterly through the day tomorrow as well with gradually diminishing intensity.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ006>008-014>016-026-027-054. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ024-028>030. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for NDZ038-039. MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Wednesday night for MNZ001-004>009-013>017. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for MNZ002-022>024.