textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered t-storms today until sunset over the area. Better organized storms and risk of brief severe storms will be in Minnesota. But any storm is capable of heavy rain and at least small hail.

- Level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk Monday as a frontal boundary moves through.

UPDATE

Issued at 442 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Tweeked pops thru 18z Sat. Did keep isold -tsra in SE ND into parts of MN. One storm did develop south of Ada MN and is now north of Mahnomen and strong enough for SPS due to potential hail to 3/4 inch based on height of 50 dbz and also as given by MESH algorithm in awips. Other than that did go more general but lower pops but smoothed out than NBM so to have at least a 20 pop for all of the forecast area this afternoon. Lack of organized forcing and broad instability will mean there is a chance most areas, but storm coverage remaining isold-scattered. 0-6 km shear is weak (20 kts) and thus will see cores grow and then re-develop along storm outflows. Brief severe storms may occur over parts of north central/west central MN where a weak sfc boundary will be located from northeast into west central MN.

..Fourth of July

Weak to perhaps moderate instability still should remain across the region for the 4th of July, but the upper flow pattern again is very weak. Due to the ongoing festivities and outdoor activities for the 4th, we do want to note that there is the potential for heavy rainfall/showers and thunderstorms. However, there is very high uncertainty in the scope of showers and thunderstorms as this will largely depend on antecedent convection dropping outflow boundaries/convergent zones.

With the lack of flow aloft as well, storms may be stationary in some locations, so minor flooding couldn't be ruled out, especially if this occurs over urban landscapes. Overall this carries very low predictability. There is currently a 40% chance of showers/storms by the afternoon across the entire area, although the spatial extent of storms should remain scattered.

Severe storm potential is very low thanks to very weak shear and lack of better forcing.

Heat impacts are not expected with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, dew points in the low 60s, and generally partly to mostly cloudy skies keeping sun-related impacts low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Some patchy fog to start in northeast ND but a few other spots. This will mix out and vsbys improve by 15z. Expect VFR conditions today with high based CU development 5000 to 7000 ft agl in the afternoon scattered to broken coverage. Isold-scat t-storms over the area but chance at any one TAF site is too low to put in at this time.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.