textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late tonight through the morning hours Monday, for large hail and damaging winds.

- There is a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail, with the potential for a few tornadoes.

..Severe Weather Risk Monday Afternoon/Evening

CAMs continue to show ongoing elevated shower and thunderstorms through Monday afternoon as the main trough moves across the region. If smoke aloft is too thick or mid level clouds/elevated storms linger, severe threats may remain isolated/marginal in nature with stronger capping in place. However where there is more clearing, CAMs are showing a signal for EML development ahead of the front with strongly sheared turning hodographs supportive of supercells. There should be enough forcing with the trough and front in that scenario for the CAP to be eroded near the frontal zone, and a more organized severe threat in the afternoon/evening. CAMs do show the stronger UH tracks/supercell type signal with some showing bowing type MCS clusters and this reflects the higher level scenario that is conditional on better surface based destabilization.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Skies are VFR this afternoon but will turn MVFR tomorrow as showers and thunderstorms move in for the afternoon/evening across the Valley and northwest Minnesota. Winds ahead of the front this evening southerly at 10-15kts with gusts dropping off between 8-10pm as the boundary layer decouples. Winds post frontal will be more northerly tomorrow afternoon with a quick backing from south to north with frontal passage.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.