textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory for much of eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota today.

- Extreme Heat Warning for the central and southern Red River Valley today.

- There is a threat for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northwest Minnesota today with a primary threat for hail up to a golf ball in size.

..Severe Storms Today

A persistent WAA regime has been in place over northwestern MN this morning, allowing for storms to develop earlier today. However, low level flow has been weakening into the early afternoon. There is indication within some model guidance that flow will increase slightly again later today during the evening hours as a shortwave rounds the ridge. This may be enough forcing to get a storm or two to develop. If a storm can form, effective shear of over 40 knots and ample instability will help organize storms, with supercells capable of severe hail being the primary threat. It will be very difficult to get a storm to form further south in west central MN, as this area is far from any forcing and fighting a stout cap.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN. There is still a low chance for a thunderstorm to move through the region this evening (mainly northwest MN), but trends have been towards better chances remaining east.

A plume of smoke is visible on satellite moving into the region from the northwest behind a weak wave and along an approaching cold front. UND LiDAR at Emerado, ND is sampling this layer well with the densest plume aloft likely around 6kft this evening. Surface visibility trends should generally be towards VFR, however as the smoke aloft moves into the region there is still a chance for brief/localized MVFR visibility impacts in ND behind the front as the winds shift to the the northwest.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-024- 026>029-038-049-052. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ027>030-038-039-049-052-053. MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004- 007>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>003-022-024-027>032-040.