textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A more active and cooler pattern arrives next week, but the predictability of specific impacts is low.
..Active and Cooler Next Week
A pattern shift arrives early next week, with a trough digging over the northwestern and eventually north central US. In turn, this will bring a major cool down in temperatures. High temperatures from Monday to Wednesday are forecasted to drop from the 40s to the 20s.
While there is high confidence in temperatures cooling down substantially, the signal for snow is less clear. Ensembles are in good agreement that the first period of interest for snow is Tuesday into Tuesday night, as a surface low tracks somewhere along the International Border. A track such as this has major implications as for how much snow we receive, as our FA remains on the edge. Therefore, a track just a bit more to the south would increase snow in our northern FA. Being nearly a week out, there is plenty of time to watch how this feature evolves.
As the low departs, drier weather will build in for Wednesday into the Thanksgiving holiday. Even though it will be dry, conditions will be breezy and cool. Confidence in the synoptic pattern from Thanksgiving onwards is low, as ensembles show a wide variety of scenarios.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Low stratus will remain the biggest aviation impact throughout the TAF period. Stratus will bring IFR to at times LIFR to all TAF sites except KFAR this afternoon. Very slowly, ceilings will rise this evening into tonight as a drier northwesterly wind behind a cold front develops. IFR ceilings will linger longest at KTVF and KBJI, where the front will take the greatest amount of time to reach. IFR ceilings will likely persist for most if not the entire TAF period for those two terminals. Other then ceilings, rain is pushing from southwest to northeast, occasionally impacting terminals. Rain chances taper off this afternoon in KDVL, taking until this evening at further east terminals such as KTVF.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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