textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rainfall is forecast late Sunday into Monday. There is a 70 percent chance for soaking rainfall of 1 inch or more within far southeast North Dakota into Minnesota.

..Widespread Rainfall Tonight into Monday

A large low pressure system will propagate northeastward from Kansas to Lake Superior over the next 36 hours. As it passes to our south and east, we will find ourselves in a region of steady stratiform precipitation. Rain will start this evening in the south, spreading across all of southeastern ND and MN tonight. There are still a few model differences in how far south/east the low tracks, which will determine where the cut off in heavier rain versus much lighter totals sets up. Rain will end from west to east as the center of low pressure quickly tracks to the north and east Monday afternoon and evening.

Rainfall totals will vary from nothing/sprinkles in parts of the Devils Lake Basin to over an inch in our far eastern counties where residence time of the steadiest rain will be longest. Probabilities for an inch or more of rain are highest in west central MN at 70%. Totals will vary most over short distances on the western edge of the heaviest rain, where little shifts in the systems track will make a big difference in the final amount of rain received. This includes places such as Valley City, Grand Forks, Thief River Falls, and Roseau.

Additionally, it will be breezy on Monday. The best pressure rises are to our south, but with a 1025 mb high over Saskatchewan and a near 990 mb low in southern MN, the pressure gradient should be enough to drive wind gusts up to 40 mph or so. Future shifts will need to monitor if a wind advisory is needed for any zones Monday morning and afternoon. Right now, based on the weak temperature advection, questionable mixing depth and the bullseye of pressure rises being outside our CWA, decided to hold on issuing any headlines at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

VFR conditions are in place over eastern ND and northwest MN to start the TAF period, however rain is stating to spread out of SD and southern MN and should overspread much of the region by late evening/early overnight (south to north). MVFR ceilings will also overspread most TAF sites (offset by rain start times by 2-4hr) followed by a large area of IFR ceilings over southeast ND and northwest MN. KDVL is more likely to remain VFR, with much less organized precipitation potential based on the current track of the system. Light to moderate rain is expected to cause some visibility reductions (3-6sm most likely), with the best chance for moderate to locally heavy rates in northwest MN.

Winds also shift from the southeast to northeast and eventually north-northwest through the TAF period as low pressure passes to the southeast of the region. Strongest wind gusts are still expected to exceed 30kt through the daytime period Monday.

There is still uncertainty in how quickly rain clears and VFR starts returning, however the current consensus in guidance favors at least IFR starting to improve at KFAR by the afternoon and VFR returning at KGFK by the end of the TAF period. Lingering light rain and IFR ceilings are more likely over much of northwest MN through Monday afternoon (especially KBJI).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.