textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the central and southern Red River Valley.

UPDATE

Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Tweeked pop grids a bit to match location of showers/t-storms as they remain west of Fargo-Grand Forks-Roseau currently. Watching area of showers and storms move north out of South Dakota into SE ND and most models do have a higher pop toward 12z in SE ND likely from this. Storms will remain below severe levels early this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Instability has waned considerably over this FA. Therefore, severe thunderstorm watch #270 was allowed to expire on time at 10 PM CDT. However, there remains some instability and when combined with a strengthening low level jet, sub severe thunderstorms will continue overnight. This is evident over the past hour as radar returns have been increasing on the nose of the jet across the Devils Lake Basin back into central ND. It should be noted that due to the meager instability and a lack of shear, these storms are expected to remain sub severe.

Attention now turns to Wednesdays severe thunderstorm potential. Incoming 0z CAMs show a wide variety of scenarios at this time. Many of these CAMs are failing to produce the current, ongoing sub severe convection across and to our west. Therefore, predictability in how Wednesday plays out remains low, and eventual severe coverage will hinge on how quickly overnight convection clears allowing instability to build back in, where/if boundaries are left over etc. These variables will determine severe weather coverage and magnitude of threats Wednesday afternoon and evening

UPDATE Issued at 925 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms continue this evening, with the strongest storms moving across Griggs and into Steele and eventually Grand Forks County. At this time, storms are struggling to maintain organization, but still have enough instability and shear to produce occasional severe wind gusts. As such, the severe thunderstorm watch has been extended to include Grand Forks County, Griggs County, and Traill County. Additionally, heavy rain is training across parts of Pembina and Walsh Counties.

..Severe potential on Wednesday

Weakening showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing tomorrow morning near the Red River, so that may have a bit of an impact on how things develop tomorrow afternoon. Some ensemble members have CAPE approaching 2000 J/kg in southeastern ND, and deep layer bulk shear should be a bit better further south than today with 30-40 kts. CIPS and machine learning both have some 15 percent probabilities of severe impacts. HREF probabilities for updraft helicity tracks have a bullseye over SD, but over 70 percent chance for 4 hour max UH tracks nosing into Ransom and Sargent counties. Main threat will be in southeastern ND into the southern and central RRV south of Highway 2. Large hail over 2 inches will be possible, but can't rule out a tornado spin up or some damaging wind.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 714 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Main issue thru tonight is coverage of showers and thunderstorms at each of the TAF sites. Timing of these at any one site is near impossible so combo of using prob30, VCTS and predominate such as this morning in DVL. Winds predominately south to southeast 10 to 20 kts, but usual variability near storms. Ceilings so far remain VFR 5000 ft agl and higher. Short term models do want to lower ceilings thru the day and evening into MVFR range in the RRV and MN TAF sites. Highly uncertain of that but did go with lowering ceilings esp in MN tonight.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.