textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Well below average temperatures continue unseasonably cool conditions through Wednesday.

- Near critical or critical fire weather conditions may develop Thursday into the weekend.

..Fire weather concerns late this week

Vast majority of guidance indicates a very dry air mass moving into the Dakotas and Minnesota from the west starting Thursday. This will push RH values into the 20s Thursday and Friday, perhaps even into the teens if deeper mixing occurs. This is very dry for our area. Deeper mixing will likely ensue if we stay mostly sunny on either of these days, which still remains a possibility, but is low in confidence.

While confidence is high in very dry conditions developing these days, confidence is low on winds. This is again stemming from potential to mix deeper than currently advertised. While winds currently forecast are under 25 mph, if even a slight push of deeper mixing occurs, gusts could reach into the 30s mph. This would result in critical fire weather conditions if this occurs.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Widespread stratus in the VFR ranges (4000-6000ft agl) are in place across eastern ND and northwest MN, and should continue through the evening and early overnight. There is still a signal for a period of MVFR (1900-3000ft agl) after 09Z developing out of Canada, with the most likely impacts at KDVL, KTVF, and KBJI. Impacts at KGFK may be shorter in duration. This is shown to improve back to the 4000-6000ft agl range by later morning.

Northwest winds should creasing below 12kt this evening, increasing again to the 12-15kt range during the daytime period Wednesday (chance for gusts around 20kt).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.