textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardously cold wind chills this morning within northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

- Snow and blowing snow may impact travel conditions Wednesday into Thursday. There is a 40 percent chance for advisory level impacts.

- Very cold conditions late Thursday into the weekend will bring cold weather impacts to the region. Wind chills between 40 to 60 below zero are forecast.

UPDATE

Issued at 659 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Light radar returns are steadily creeping eastward through North Dakota as the weak clipper nears our region. Radar also reveals a virga-like signature (particularly on KMBX), indicative of a low level dry layer well advertised by guidance. It will take a bit of time to saturate this layer, but eventually this is the favored scenario to occur allowing snowflakes to reach the ground - much like what is happening in western ND.

Ultimately, the forecast remains on track.

..Very cold conditions late week

The vast majority of ensemble guidance agrees in a lobe of the upper polar vortex holding deeply entrenched arctic air mass to envelope our region late week behind the mid week clipper and associated cold front. Between late Thursday and Sunday, the area has a high chance of seeing apparent temperatures in the 40 to 60 below zero range, with temperatures as low as 20s and 30s below zero.

Things that lower confidence in just how cold, and where, conditions become include some variance in ensemble guidance like location of arctic surface high pressure, winds, and probably most egregious is cloud cover. Cloudier conditions will still bring cold weather conditions, just perhaps closer to advisory level. Should conditions either sway more toward the breezier or clear/calm-side of guidance, warning level impacts will ensue.

Ensemble guidance attempts to shunt the deeply entrenched arctic air mass eastward early next week, but this is a point of uncertainty as spread in ensemble guidance grows regarding the synoptic pattern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 659 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are forecast within the TAF period through 12Z Wednesday.

Steadily lowering ceilings into the MVFR and perhaps IFR range are forecast at all sites, along with light snow reducing visibility potentially as low as 2SM to 4SM. Relatively best chance for IFR ceilings resides at KDVL, KFAR, and KBJI.

Winds will remain light under 12kt, generally out of the southwest, but at times variable.

More impactful aviation weather is forecast to occur Wednesday into Thursday with the approach of a strong cold front bringing gusty winds, snow, blowing snow, lowered visibilities, and lowered ceilings.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NDZ006>008-015-016-026-027-054. MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MNZ001- 002-004>009-013>017-022>024-028-032.