textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon parts of southeast North Dakota.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening for portions of west central into north central Minnesota and far southeast North Dakota. All hazards are possible.

- There is a high chance for soaking rainfall Sunday night into Monday night across the region which could impact outdoor activities.

UPDATE

Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Skies are clear to partly cloudy as sunrise approaches this Thursday. Surface winds are already south to southwest around 5 kts and will increase in to the 10-20 kt range today, with a few gusts 25 kts in E ND. The last HRB (Herbaceous Fuel Moisture) map shows sub 100 values in southeast ND in the dry region. With RH values anticipated to drop to near 30 percent in parts of SE ND and with wind gusts 25 mph did add near critical fire weather conditions to the HWO for southeast ND. For Friday mid afternoon and evening SPC day 2 pushed slight risk a tad west and introduced a 5 pct TOR in parts of the MN forecast area from Alexandria to Bemidji to Grand Rapids.

..Soaking Rainfall Sunday night into Monday night

There is strong consensus that a strong upper low will bring widespread rainfall to our region Sunday night through Monday. NBM probabilities are 60-80% for greater than 0.5" rainfall in our CWA during that period, and probabilities for greater than 1" of rain range from 40-60% (highest in the southern RRV). While it is an organized synoptic system, the locations that receive 1"+ or even 2"+ rainfall (30% chance) will be determined by deformation zone location and embedded thunderstorm activity which will be less predictable. As the warmer more unstable air mass will be cut off to the south of this system there is currently not a signal for severe thunderstorm risk after Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions today and tonight. A few altocu this morning in NW MN. Otherwise mainly clear with a few cirrus moving in this afternoon and tonight. South to southwest wind increasing to 10-20 kts exception is far eastern areas where Bemidji and surrounding will see south winds develop midday and afternoon near 10 kts.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.