textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread rainfall is forecast late Sunday into Monday. There is a 70 percent chance for soaking rainfall of 1 inch or more within southeast North Dakota into Minnesota.
..Soaking rainfall late Sunday into Monday
As the stacked upper low departs, a more robust shortwave trough will move out of the Central Plains into Upper Midwest. This wave will tap into richer moisture from the south as well as some instability aloft feeding into the heart of the wave. This will bring widespread rainfall into portions of eastern ND and MN, including a soaking rainfall of at least 1 inch Sunday overnight into Monday.
While there is high confidence in this occurring, there remains some disagreement on which locations in our area will exceed 1 inches. As of now, west-central to north-centtral MN currently hold relatively highest chances for 1 or more inches of rainfall, around 70% chance. Northeast ND into far northwest MN hold relatively lowest chance. Latest CAMs reveal locally highest rainfall amounts should sit in the 2-3 inch range, and will be dependent upon locations experiencing steady rainfall overnight Sunday as well as into Monday. There is a 30% chance for this to occur in our area.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
VFR conditions are expected through Sunday afternoon across eastern ND and northwest MN sites. Lighter winds (under 10kt) and generally variable are expected through the morning hours as weak surface high pressure lingers. A stronger low pressure develops to the south of the region and builds to the northeast, Sunday into Monday, resulting in increasing winds from the east-southeast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Rain chances increase south to north late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening, along with the chance for MVFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings impacts are expected Sunday evening at KFAR, with medium chances for MVFR at KGFK, KTVF, and KBJI. IFR ceiling chances and moderate to locally heavy rain chances increase in southeast ND and west central MN after the 06Z TAF period.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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