textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions prevail through at least Saturday. Rain chances increase thereafter.

..Synopsis

For this afternoon, gusty winds and low relative humidity will continue in eastern ND, the Red River Valley, into west-central MN before sunset. While current observations of gusts in the 25-35 mph range juxtaposed with RH values in the 20s would equate to critical fire weather conditions, current intel on fine fuel status reveals that grasses are not quite cured to a level that would promote rapid spread of fire. Thus, we continue to not host any dedicated messaging toward fire weather impacts.

Otherwise this afternoon, increased chance for showers with embedded thunder near Lake of the Woods based on current trends in satellite and radar. Isolated showers/weak thunderstorms will remain possible until near sunset.

This is in response to strong Pacific Jet nosing out of the Canadian Rockies into the Northern Plains offering a belt of increased winds amid dry air mass. Tomorrow into Friday, the jet migrates east of our area with upper ridging building over the region. This will continue to promote dry and above average temperatures through at least Saturday. Saturday will be particularly warm day with high temperatures well into the 80s in southeast ND and west-central MN. There is even some opportunity for even higher temperatures pushing into the upper 80s in the southern Red River Valley.

Around Sunday, flow becomes more southwesterly aloft in response to upper troughing over the Pacific Coast, and eventually the Intermountain West next week. This will promote increasing moisture into our region. Ensemble guidance generally agrees in a stationary front lingering near our region late weekend into next week. Exiting the upper trough will likely be at least a couple of shortwave troughs that move through the Northern Plains offering forcing for ascent near the stationary front. This will promote increased chances for rain starting around Sunday, lasting through much of next week.

Confidence is not high in details in precipitation evolution next week however. Timing of more robust shortwave troughs resulting in more consolidated bouts of rain remain in question. There is even a cluster of guidance that offers the season's first snow mid to late next week within the Northern Plains - but again, confidence in this scenario is very low due to high spread in ensemble guidance. Ultimately, the upcoming pattern next week will trend wetter with temperatures closer to seasonal averages.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Less wind today, with a mainly west wind 5-10kts then turning south-southeast late tonight 5-10 kts by 12z Fri. Cirrus will be around today into tonight, mostly BKN coverage.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.