textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures are forecast this weekend, including temperatures into the 60s and 70s. This will greatly erode existing snowpack. This along with upcoming precipitation brings medium chance for minor riverine flooding.

- A more unsettled weather pattern develops this weekend into next week, bringing chances for rain and thunderstorms. At this time, the chance for severe weather is very low.

UPDATE

Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Southeast winds prevail this morning with temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s. Radar reflectivity is not manifesting precipitation thus far this morning; however, better rain chances are expected later this morning and through much of the afternoon.

..Unsettled weather pattern ahead

Ensembles all agree in the upper pattern remaining in this southwesterly and quasi-zonal flow regime this weekend through next week. While ensembles have some disagreement in synoptic evolution of shortwave trough evolutions, there are a few periods of note that increase our relative chances for precipitation. These periods are Saturday night into Sunday, Tuesday, and late next work week.

Each of these will bring their own wave of instability within its warm sector largely displaced from our area. However, convection fed by this warm sector may be within our area, introducing thunderstorms into the forecast.

As of now, most ensemble guidance generally agrees that more significant precipitation amounts over 2 inches will remain well to our within eastern MN into WI. Still, there is a low to medium chance for 1-2 inches within Minnesota and locations north of US Highway 2 by end of the work week.

The late week shortwave trough passage may feature cold enough air for some of its precipitation to be snow, of which may be enough to accumulate. However, details on this potential is very limited due to longer extent into the forecast period.

...Warm temperatures and eroding snowpack brings chance for riverine flooding... many Due to the extended period of well above freezing temperatures over the next several days, confidence for a greatly eroding snowpack is high. There remains widespread frozen and/or saturated soils, with several areas still seeing standing water in open fields (as seen from webcams and satellite imagery). This lends confidence that existing water content within the snowpack will largely runoff into rivers/tributaries.

The current water content within the snowpack isn't very high, and alone will likely not push rivers/tributaries into flood stage. However, the combination of this occuring with upcoming chances for additional precipitation introduce a medium chance for minor riverine flooding. This is mainly tied to Minnesota tributaries with current precipitation chances relatively highest in Minnesota.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail this morning at all TAF sites. Look for increasing cloud cover late this morning, with MVFR to IFR ceilings expected by mid afternoon. Rain chances increase late in the TAF period, bringing the potential for LIFR conditions heading into the late evening hours. Winds will be out of the south through the TAF period, with gusts in the 25-30 knot range through much of the day. Wind gusts diminish late this evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.