textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance for fire weather impacts Friday into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The surface pattern this afternoon is fairly diffuse with mainly northerly to northwesterly winds due to a surface high over the central US moving away from our area. Temperatures this afternoon will remain cool through tomorrow thanks to continued cool mean layer temperatures and deep troughing over the great lakes. Luckily, the center of the larger troughing is downstream of our area, so afternoon temperatures will begin to rise appreciably through early next week.

As this occurs, relative humidity values during afternoons will fall much lower, with greater chances for 20-30% RHs in the afternoon. However, winds will remain relatively light and away from critical thresholds as flow in the low levels is quite weak (generally 20-30 knots). Forecasted HRB values do indicate that, despite green-up beginning, we still remain fully dead for the most part on the live fuel moisture front and ERC values are approaching 60-80th percentiles. As such, fuels remain conducive for near critical conditions, but winds need to be cranked up a lot more to achieve critical/red flag.

Embedded within northwesterly flow will be a few perturbations that bring with it the chance for showers. However, moisture advection is very weak and instability is also very weak, so higher level impacts appear unlikely at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The main story of the afternoon will be the uncertainty in cloud ceilings. Right now, a broad swath of stratus is eroding as temperatures warm diurnally, but a few sites in northwest Minnesota are MVFR. This doesn't appear to be widespread as the main ceilings are 3500-5000 ft beneath cloud cover, but there does appear to be the potential for brief reductions to MVFR at BJI and TVF this afternoon. This should improve this evening as northwesterly winds this afternoon between 10-15 knots become more light and variable. VFR conditions continue overnight before another cloud deck works its way from Canada into the CONUS, potentially causing MVFR ceilings at DVL. However, confidence is low right now so it was not added to the forecasted TAF.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.