textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of light freezing drizzle may lead to slick travel conditions through midnight tonight.

- Accumulating light snow may impact the early Friday morning commute within southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota.

- Clipper systems bring additional opportunities for winter impacts this weekend into next week, particularly around Tuesday and Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 905 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Loss of ice development aloft and just enough saturated depth in the -2C to -6C range is leading to a few areas of freezing drizzle over parts of the Red River Valley in eastern ND and north of Highway 2 in northwest MN (including detected light icing on the KBDE ASOS sensor). In the same areas where these reports are occurring precip types are alternating between flurries and very light freezing drizzle, and duration/impacts are more uncertain as a result.

At the NWS office at Grand Forks there is very light accumulation on the windward side of elevated objects, but no indications of accumulation on other surfaces yet. Where rates are high enough slick travel may occur, so this is worth monitoring and considering if traveling. The window for this appears to be ahead of the approaching wave in western ND before saturation aloft increases. For now I went ahead and added fzdz mention to the forecast and issued an SPS, but held off on issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for light icing. If it looking like advisory impacts are likely I will reconsider.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

There are still several areas of light snow in northwest MN on the back side of the first mid level wave that are transitioning east this evening. THe next mid level wave is becoming organized upstream in western ND and this is lining up well with 12Z HREF and shorter range CAMs/timing. Adjustments were made to reflect coverage trends this evening/overnight, with no changes to impacts/messaging from earlier discussion.

..Tuesday and Wednesday Potential Impacts

While there are several potential generally weak clipper systems between Friday and Tuesday, ensemble guidance agrees in Tuesday/Wednesday clipper carrying more strength and moisture, thus greater potential for impacts. Ensembles still vary in important synoptic evolutions to pin point impact potential and types of weather hazards that lead to impacts. Despite this variation, impacts from accumulating snow, gusty winds/blowing snow, and even wintry precipitation that may result in icing potential, all appear plausible.

Currently, the chance for advisory-type impacts from this clipper sits at 40%, with warning-type impacts being around 10%.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Widespread MVFR stratus is in place over most of eastern ND and northwest MN, with a small area of VFR in southeast ND that is expected to fill in early in the TAF period. It is unlikely that more than brief periods of VFR are going to occur over the next 24hr, with the current pattern locked in place and several mid level systems/low pressure areas continuing to bring low level moisture to the region. Guidance shows that with this next wave a period of prevailing IFR ceilings may develop in southeast ND and west central MN tonight into Friday morning. The strongest winds have diminished as surface gradient is relaxing due to the shifting low pressure to the north, and blowing snow impacts have also ended.

Visibility reductions are going to be driven by snow rates where snow occurs. There are a few pockets of snow showers lingering early in the TAF period in northwest MN with the first departing wave, and another period of light snow is over southeast ND (KFAR) later tonight after 06Z through 15Z. Lighter snow/flurries can't be ruled out at most locations at times, but chances are lower.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.