textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy blowing snow will bring minor impacts to travel through the afternoon.

- Gusty winds Friday are likely to bring at least some degree of impacts Friday into Saturday, although how severe impacts are will depend on wind speed and temperatures.

..Synopsis

Surface analysis this afternoon indicates broad surface surface high moving in from the west at this hour. Wind speeds continue to remain in the 10 to 20 mph range sustained with temperatures generally upper single digits to low teens. This has allowed for blowing snow to arise, however more severe impacts have been significantly mitigated with wind speeds as low as they are. Still, with mixing ongoing this afternoon, the expectation is for the development of horizontal convective roll snow showers. Snowfall rates combined with the elevated wind speeds should be enough to create regions of low visibility, however impacts to travel should remain fairly minor with winds not expected to increase much further. As we approach sunset, impacts will become minimal as winds diminish and mixing ceases.

We remain locked in perpetual northwest flow through the remainder of the week. Perturbations within the longwave trough are not apparent in long range guidance until Friday when a fast moving shortwave trough rolls through bringing the threat for snow and blowing snow once more. Signals for wind are very strong thanks to a significant temperature gradient setting up along the perturbation. Long range guidance varies in location of the upper low, but most ensemble members keep the main upper low north with generally modest wind production across our region. While blowing snow is a potential threat, the clipper nature of this system brings low level thermal ridging well above freezing to our area, so impacts to snowpack viability for blowing snow are expected. Given all of these uncertainties and based on ensemble distribution with a 90th percentile solution for potential warning impacts from a deeper low, there is a 10% chance for warning impacts with the potential for blizzard conditions if snowpack remains viable and a deeper low arises. Again, there are a lot of things working against it but it does at least look like we'll see winds to facilitate at least advisory impacts if snowpack remains viable.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

There is still one main region of stratus (2500-3500 FT AGL) over far northeast ND and northwest MN orientated from the northwest to southeast, with smaller transient pockets showing signs of clearing. This has resulted in brief MVFR ceilings at KGLD, KTVF, and KBJI with some reports of flurries under these low clouds. The general trend still supports eventual prevailing VFR conditions as drier air arrives Wednesday morning by 12Z, but guidance has not handled the current conditions well and confidence on exact timing is low. VFR is expected through the daytime period Wednesday into Wednesday night with lighter winds due to surface high pressure. Winds do eventually shift to the south late in the TAF period increasing to 7-11kt as low pressure builds to the west.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.