textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 70 mph would be the primary threats.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected today Near critical to critical fire weather conditions may develop in these areas Monday and Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

As anticipated a few high based showers and isolated t-storm formed in south central ND into SD. They are slowly moving southeast as area slides east. It does look like most will miss our far southwest fcst area. Otherwise question will be what happens in regards to t-storm development and severe weather coverage that develops near and ahead of a cold front advancing east. Timing wise would look like evening/overnight for our area, but coverage is the big question as latest CAMs indicate some storms in southern ND and then not much north. Net result was keeping a broad 30 to 40 pops in the unstable airmass ahead of the front tonight. DCAPE values in the 1300-1400 range via soundings from HRRR in E ND would indicate as SPC noted more of a wind threat from organized outflow ahead of a cluster of storms.

..Fire Weather

The isolated/widely scattered storms in our northeast are less likely to provide wetting rain and may carry a dry thunderstorm risk before they dissipate early this evening. Fuels in the forested regions of Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Hubbard counties continue to be areas of concern for fire partners and with less confidence in wetting rains in those areas will continue to be locations to monitor into early next week. Today and Sunday RH values may fall near 40% during the afternoon/early evening periods, with breezier conditions on Sunday (gusts to 25 mph). Much windier conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday with the potential for post frontal wind gusts 30-35 mph in our east (around 40 mph along and west of the Red River Valley). It is possible that grassier areas of southeast ND may be drying out enough that near critical or critical fire weather conditions could develop in those areas if they remain dry from the Sunday night/Monday thunderstorm activity. Confidence in lower RH values are lower Monday as cloud cover and faster frontal arrivals may create a larger spread in potential RH from the north to the south (60% in the north and 40% ahead of the front). Tuesday may carry the better chance for 40% or lower RH depending on how warm temperatures actually get (cloud cover and cooler airmass).

In any case, near critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue in north central MN each afternoon/early evening through Tuesday, and we will continue to monitor for the potential for critical/RFW conditions over the upcoming windier pattern.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through this afternoon across eastern ND and northwest MN, with gusty south-southwest winds (periodic gusts to 25kt in eastern ND). Isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving over parts of eastern ND but the probability for impacts this afternoon is low.

This evening scattered thunderstorms develop and there is the potential for larger thunderstorm complexes to move west to east or southeast through the region. There is still a lot of variability on the track and locations that could see the highest coverage this evening into the early overnight, but where activity tracks severe thunderstorms (hail/wind) and MVFR/IFR conditions would be a threat. After that activity passes additional smoke may move into the region Monday (impacts more likely aloft and off the surface) and westerly winds should increase late morning. Gusts around 30kt or higher are likely by midday Monday in eastern ND.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.