textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Risk for multiple rounds of severe storms starting late Saturday through at least Monday. All hazards are possible.

- Potential for heat impacts next week, including the Fourth of July weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Line of thunderstorms currently moving through central ND will enter far western portions of the Devils Lake Basin in the next hour or two. CAMs do show a slight weakening trend as the complex enters our western counties, and DCAPE goes down except in portions of southeastern ND. On the other hand, there is a 850mb jet of 40 kts to feed the storms. There should at least be a decent chance for some continued severe potential as the line enters the Devils Lake Basin, but think there should be weakening as it moves into the Red River Valley around 3 to 5 am.

UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Warm air advection along with a weak shortwave embedded in the southwesterly flow continues to bring showers and some thunderstorms to the region. Instability is limited over our area, and the strongest convection remains out close to the MT border. However, with instability expected to increase over our western counties and the storms moving in later tonight, there remains some risk for damaging winds, mostly in the midnight and after period. There is some question on how widespread winds will be as the thunderstorm complex moves east, but risk for isolated thunderstorms remains tonight.

..Heat this Week

In addition to thunderstorms, heat will be a concern heading into the upcoming week. Monday will likely bring the highest heat indicies as dew points in the 70s are advected into much of the FA. We cool down a bit on Tuesday, but persistent southerly flow will keep temperatures and dew points elevated all week, slowly rising each day from Wednesday through Saturday. at this time, ares in southeastern ND and west central MN have the highest chance of seeing heat advisory level impacts (heat indicies of 100 degrees or higher). It should be noted that even if afternoon temperatures barely reach criteria, overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s will likely provide very little relief from the heat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions with a few rain showers lingering near KBJI right before midnight, but a line of convection will be moving into the KDVL area in the first hour of the TAF period. The line of storms will move from west to east across the forecast area from 07 to 13Z or so. Continued to keep mention going in the prevailing line of the TAFs, with some showers lingering a bit longer after the main thunderstorm line has passed through. Some MVFR ceilings moving in behind the thunderstorms, and a few models have dips down to IFR but HREF probabilities of under 1000 ft are less than 30 percent. Some improvement to VFR is possible at some sites towards the end of the period. Redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms also possible Sunday afternoon and evening, but confidence is not high enough to even include prob30 groups at this point. Southeast winds will be around 10 kts overnight, but pick up tomorrow with gusts into the 25 to 30 kt range.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.