textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures are forecast this week, including well above freezing. While a significant degradation in current snowpack is expected, flooding from snowmelt is not anticipated at this time.

- There is a medium to high chance for dense fog during the evening into morning hours for the next several days. However, confidence in location and duration of fog is low.

- A quick moving system this weekend brings a 20% chance for advisory level impacts.

UPDATE

Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Main fog area is a small area from Wahpeton ND to Fergus Falls MN then southeast to Willmar MN. Fog within our forecast area is dense in spots but webcams show not widespread. Did SPS for this area for patchy dense fog. Rest of the area light fog is reported by automated weather stations with vsbys 2-5SM, and could see lowering in vsbys yet for a few hours toward sunrise so wouldnt be suprised to see other locally dense fog patches form.

I didnt change the key messages. Though for the weekend, chance of winter advisory level impacts look less.

..Weekend winter impact potential

Ensemble guidance indicates high likelihood in a more organized but shallow and fast moving hybrid-type wave to traverse the Dakotas into Minnesota this weekend. While this brings the potential to bring accumulating snowfall between 1-3 inches and/or light icing, confidence is low in this occuring within our area. This is due to spread in ensemble guidance on synoptic evolution, as well as the likely presence of mesoscale forcing. Additionally, questions on temperatures either above or below freezing add addition uncertainty. Ultimately, there is currently a 20% chance for advisory level impacts.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

We are in a pattern where confidence is high in fog/stratus development during nighttime/early morning periods with ample low level moisture from daytime snow melt, but confidence is low in details as coverage/location of LIFR/VLIFR remain highly variable.

There are several small areas of dense fog that have developed in north central ND and northwest MN, with lighter fog (3-6sm) has been more common in northeast ND. Expect variable conditions and at least a period of reduced flight conditions during the morning hours Thursday (09-13Z most likely period for IFR). Southerly winds increase Thursday morning as low pressure builds to the west, and along with the benefit of the mid March solar angle stratus/fog should burn off/lift during the daytime period. Winds eventually shift to the west-northwest Thursday evening as surface low pressure migrates east. Sustained ind remain 8-13kt and this should help keep low levels mixed and VFR in place during the evening hours. Fog/stratus becomes likely again after the current TAF period Thursday night into Friday morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.