textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather overnight is expected. There is a slight chance (20%) for showers tomorrow afternoon, but minimal impacts are expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 947 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Winds will continue to diminish this evening with colder temperatures working their way into the region. Severe storm potential has ended as well as instability has shifted west. Quiet weather will continue through the overnight hours.

UPDATE Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A line of showers/storms has developed over Beltrami/Lake of the Woods County and may be periodically producing pea size hail. The instability axis continues to slide eastward this afternoon and is almost clear of our area. A marginal risk of severe storms remains as effective bulk shear remains 35-45 knots, however CAPE profiles are very skinny and thin updrafts are getting sheared away, so the probability at this time is fairly limited.

..Synopsis

Currently a surface low pressure system is sitting on the North Dakota and Canadian Border. Two cold fronts are extending off it, one moving east through the Red River Valley, and the other one surging through western and central ND. Aloft the low is tilted to the west over the colder air. Winds will continue to increase this afternoon and into the overnight, so the fire weather concerns remain across the forecast area. Current relative humidities are around 30 percent, with winds now gusting near 30mph. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7pm. Winds behind the first cold front are turning to the west, while winds ahead of the front are from the south. The Wind Advisory also remains in effect until 9pm with diurnal heating dying and the cold front passing.

Along this cold front there still remains a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this evening in northwestern and north central MN. Expected hazards are 1 inch hail and 60mph winds. With the mean wind mostly parallel with the cold front, the expected storm mode will mostly be linear if storms get going. CAPE values will only be around 700 J/kg, with bulk shear around 40kts. Most of the CAMs have the line of storms firing just west of Bemidji sometime between 3pm and 5pm, then moving east with the front.

This weekend will be much cooler with on and off rain. The upper level low is forecast to just sit and spin in southern Canada through Monday morning. This will keeps us in the active cyclonic flow, along with cooler temperatures being pulled in from Canada. Expect daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s with breezy winds. Most of the weekend will include at least a slight (20 percent) chance of rain. Sunday a large trough digs south through the West Coast, leading to southwest flow over the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley. This will also form a Colorado Low that will bring widespread rain to the area. Most model outcomes have the timing being across ND and MN Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.

Looking at next week, the earlier low pressure system could linger in central Canada, possibly leading to more cyclonic flow, and cooler temperatures. A shortwave and collocated cold front could spin off of the low mid week, and move in from the north. This could create more chances of rain and breezy winds.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Generally VFR conditions can be expected to persist. The main two uncertainties are when gusts will end overnight tonight and if we see pockets of MVFR ceilings. A broad stratus deck continues across eastern North Dakota and should continue to push northeast. At this time, cloud bases are generally above 3000 ft although some pockets do fall below. DVL may experience brief periods of MVFR ceilings overnight. As for the winds, gusts should continue through the overnight period but become less frequent as the strongest cold air advection pushes east. Expect the bulk of gusts exceeding 30 knots to be over by around 12z for all TAF sites, with winds generally sustained through the day tomorrow around 10-15 knots.

Showers may develop tomorrow afternoon and primarily be as rain. The probability for impacts to any TAF site is very low. Any impacts to aviation should generally be brief periods of lowering ceilings and perhaps some visibility reductions, especially if snow manages to mix in.

Occasional gusts tomorrow afternoon may approach 25-30 knots, mainly at DVL. Winds will gradually shift to more westerly tomorrow afternoon. After sunset, winds should become fairly light along the North Dakota/Minnesota state line and east, so terrain induced variable wind directions are likely after 00z. West to southwest winds should continue to prevail at DVL through the end of the TAF period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.