textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with heat index values around 100 in the Red River Valley Wednesday.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Thursday, with 1 inch hail and wind gusts to 60 mph the main impacts expected.

..Marginal severe risk on Thursday

Many of the CAMs break out some convection along the MT/ND border Wednesday afternoon, then move it east Wednesday night. There is a low chance that some of the cells will be holding together by the time they reach far western Benson county early Thursday morning, but many of the model runs just have the convective complex decreasing in intensity. Whether we get any convective redevelopment in the afternoon along the trough axis will depend on how exactly the morning plays out. At this point, the 50th percentile has 1000-2500 J/kg of CAPE over all but our far northwestern counties Thursday afternoon, although deep layer shear is fairly mid, around 25 to 30 kts at most. Still, can't rule out some isolated severe cells so will continue with a marginal risk for Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with modest intermittent lower visibilities to 6 miles from smoke. Fog has a low probability of developing overnight but should be less severe than last night thanks to the surface high translating eastward. Winds begin to increase generally from the south with potential oscillations between southwest to southeast as a front approaches from the west. It appears likely that showers and thunderstorms will develop somewhere in western North Dakota, progressing eastward towards the Devils Lake Basin and eastern North Dakota. For this reason, PROB30 groups were introduced after 00z at DVL, with the potential for further expansion eastward in a future issuance depending on confidence. Variable wind gusts up to 45 knots are possible with any showers/storms that make it that far east, but confidence is very low in this occurring.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for NDZ008-016- 027-029-030-039. MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ001>004- 007.