textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to moderate snow continues this afternoon with another shot of light snow Tuesday night.

- Above average temperatures through the first half of the month.

UPDATE

Issued at 943 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Adjusted sky grids for a sharper cutoff between cloudy skies in the western tier of counties, and clear across the central and east. Still looking like a large range beween low temps around zero in the west and close to -15 in the northeast. A bit of a eastward shift in the cloud cover expected, but portions of northwestern MN should remain clear throughout the night.

UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Obs and radar showing not much snow over southeastern ND currently, with just a narrow band on radar and some flurries still around Oakes. The downward trend in snow will continue as the shortwave continues south and we get more dry air moving in. Will let the short term graphic forecast expire, with the next round of lightly accumulating snow coming in later tomorrow/tomorrow night.

..Synopsis

Ensemble clusters show good agreement on the synoptic evolution through the next few days with ridging over the western CONUS and NW flow aloft over the northern plains bringing weak waves through our area. In the lower levels more zonal flow and multiple rounds of chinook airmasses moving east bring chances at temps in the upper 30s to low 40s. There is still some notable uncertainty in how far east these low level bubbles of warmth move but should they move as far east as some clusters are showing then highs near 40 are certainly within the cards (for areas mostly without snow cover). Clusters beyond this weekend do hint at flow becoming more zonal as ridging breaks down and potentially even becoming SW at some point next week but minimal ensemble agreement is displayed at this range.

- Tonight

With generally weak synoptic support aside from DCVA and some WAA mainly focused in south central ND at this point, moderate snow rates continue to be driven mainly by upright instability atop the 850- 700mb baroclinic zone. Have not seen any snow reports yet but just looking at webcams and plowcams it seems that most areas are only seeing 1-2" at most so far and the fears of organized stationary banding has not panned out. Still the potential for areas in southeast ND (south of HWY 200) to see some of these heavy rates remains into the early evening as the wave pulls south into South Dakota but not looking at too much accumulation, maybe a inch or so.

- Tuesday Night

A weak wave will move south out of Manitoba/western Ontario late Tuesday bringing weak DCVA and some WAA to northwest Minnesota resulting in some light snow across the area. With the generally weak synoptic support and fast motion of the wave only expecting a couple tenths of an inch of snow, with areas from Hallock to Bemidji and east seeing a > 50% for 0.03" QPF or ~0.5" of snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. With winds remaining light via a weak surface pressure gradient and weak CAA blowing snow is also a low concern limiting the impact potential of this wave to nuisance snowfall.

- Warmth persisting

As we carry on through the week, low level thermal ridging continues to build to our west with intermittent surges of the warm bubble eastward over our region. One such surge comes Thursday with with the NBM 25th to 75th showing anywhere from low 30s to low 40s. Granted that probably doesnt properly account for the fact we have a relatively deep (2-8+") snowpack across the region. The fact the snow pack is also forecast to still have a temp in the high 10s to low 20s the next few days also does not conceptually seem conducive to temps this warm but nonetheless a warm up to at least near to slightly above freezing seems possible later this week. Warmer temps in the 20s to 30s stick around beyond Thursday with westerly flow in the lower levels continuing to pump a warmer airmass our way. Normal highs the first half of January for the forecast area are still in the teens to low 20s so this could certainly be considered above average for the period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

MVFR ceilings have finally cleared out of the KFAR area, leaving all TAF sites VFR. That should last through the rest of the evening, but some lower stratus looks to come in tomorrow morning. Some of the model runs bring in ceilings down to 300 ft by tomorrow morning to most of our airports, but other solutions keep it VFR throughout. Continued the previous shift's trends and will keep conditions MVFR to higher IFR at KBJI as upstream obs support those conditions more than the very low stratus. Winds will become light and variable, then pick up out of the south at less than 10 kts by tomorrow morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.