textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures return next week, bringing near critical or critical fire weather conditions Monday thorugh Wednesday.

- An unsettled pattern bringing rain and Thunderstorm chances to the region Thursday, and rain and snow chances Friday into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Snow showers and even most of the clouds have moved out of the CWA. Some lower clouds still hanging around the SD border, but will clear out in the next few hours and leave our area quiet and cold for the rest of the day. Adjusted sky grids a bit for current trends, but no other changes to what we have going.

..Unsettled pattern late next week into the weekend

As southwest flow develops deeper moisture advection builds into the Northern Plains with NAEFS highlighting anomalous PWATs (exceeding 1") Thursday into Thursday night. EFI highlights that period for anomalous instability (values exceeding 0.8) though climatologically that isn't as hard to accomplish with even modest instability present. Depending on the evolution of the upstream low pressure building out of Colorado within this flow we may see organized periods of rain and embedded/elevated thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night, and this will be a period to monitor. Depending on mesoscale details (clearing/frontal positions) strong effective shear could coincide with enough elevated instability for a few strong or even marginally severe thunderstorms.

As frost depth has reached zero based on observations in our CWA as of the last warm-up we are not approaching this rain event with hydrophobic tendencies as we normally would in early spring. Thus, it will take heavier rain totals in shorter periods to cause excessive runoff impacts as there could be at least some storage in soil. There is a signal in NBM for 1"+ rain totals (10-20% chance), however the signal for greater than 2" of rainfall is currently zero and those types of totals would likely be needed for at leas some flood impacts.

Ensemble spread increases regarding the evolution of the pattern, lowering confidence in precipitation coverage and measurable precipitation timing/coverage/amounts. The colder air settling into the region does raise the potential for wintry precipitation dependent on evolution/timing. There are some ensemble members that show accumulating snow potential and WPC pWSSI shows a 10-20% probability for advisory/minor winter weather impacts from snowfall. Higher snow rates would be required to overcome warmer ground temperatures and increase impacts and all details are very uncertain at this time and range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions for all the TAF sites as the stratus exits off to the south. Some high clouds later on, but expecting VFR throughout the period. Winds will be the main concern, with north to northwest around 8 to 10 kts for much of the day today. Winds becoming light and variable this evening, then picking up out of the south at 10 to 15 kts by tomorrow morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.