textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost advisory for Thursday overnight into early Friday for all but the far southern forecast area. Ideal radiational conditions should allow temperatures to drop to below NBM guidance in many areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Coord with DLH as they had issued frost/freeze headlines by 05z for much of their area. High pressure ridge axis at the surface will be right over the Red River valley and adjacent sections in Minnesota at 12z. Provided skies are clear, winds will be light and conditions look ideal for rational cooling. Went below given NBM temps, mixing in some ConsMOS and then lowering a few from that in normally colder areas such in NW MN. Shower chances Saturday are more limited to areas near the Manitoba border via NBM pops. However there are some models that do keep at least a chance of a few light showers farther south. Very light is the key now...trace to 0.01. Mild and dry for the balance of next week.

..Synopsis

Influence from an upper trough in Canada spreads into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, starting this afternoon into evening as a dry cold front sweeps through. This will increase winds and bring today's above average temperatures back toward average Thursday into next week. Winds may briefly gusty this evening, especially in the Red River Valley. Winds reinvigorate area-wide by late morning, lasting through the afternoon. North-northwest winds 20-35 mph can be anticipated, highest in northeast ND and northwest MN.

While cooler temperatures into the upper 30s are forecast tonight in northeast ND, a steady light breeze behind the front is expected to prevent temperatures from tanking via radiational cooling. This will limit the chance for frost.

Frost becomes more likely Thursday night into Friday as surface high pressure centers itself more into our region keeping winds calm and skies clear. Best chance for fog currently resides in northeast ND and northwest MN, but areas generally north of I-94 also hold a medium chance of seeing frost.

Additional chances for frost exist this weekend into next week, particularly Sunday night into Monday morning.

The upper pattern remains in a quasi-zonal flow through the weekend, with a shortwave trough forecast to move through around Saturday. This will provide forcing for ascent bringing a medium chance for rain showers. This wave is likely to be devoid of overall moisture content, thus rain amounts are anticipated to be rather low - less than quarter of an inch.

Ensemble guidance suggests in transient shortwave ridging early next week, although the influence of this remains in question. There could be a brief trend in temperatures toward slightly above average temperatures; otherwise, temperatures are forecast to remain near average.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR will prevail throughout the TAF period. Winds have already shifted to the north/northwest as a cold front has tracked through the region. These northwest winds will remain at up to 10 knots overnight, then increase slightly on Thursday. Gusts Thursday afternoon will approach 25 knots. Skies will be clear, although a little afternoon cumulus may develop in MN. Even there, bases will remain VFR if this cumulus does in fact develop.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054. MN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-032.