textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and gusty winds Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. This may degrade travel conditions, particularly within the southern Red River Valley.

- Intervals of below average temperatures through the rest of the week, along with snow chances after Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1002 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The surface trough axis has shifted into the RRV with BL flow more to the west-southwest keeping lower clouds in MN, while a mid level deck is starting to approach the region from the northwest (still over the Turtle Mountains). This is along the leading edge of the next approaching mid level wave (mentioned in previous discussions). Under the stratus in our east and the mid level deck to the northwest, flurries have been periodically reported, but overall impacts are minimal. As with previous update, only minor adjustments were necessary to near term trends.

UPDATE Issued at 702 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Stratus/flurries are lingering in MN which mostly clear skies are in place across more of ND (though there have been a few stubborn pockets rebuilding in northeast ND). In the regions of clearing temperatures are dropping quickly as would be expected especially over regions with deeper snowpack. Near term adjustments were made to reflect current trends.

..Variable temperatures and snow chances late week

While ensemble guidance is in rather good agreement on northwest flow aloft late this week, they do disagree in evolution of several shortwave troughs riding a baroclinic zone paralleling flow aloft. Should these troughs move closer to our area, chance for snow as well as snow amounts would increase. This may result in several days of periodic snow chances, including accumulations that may be impactful. The evolution and track of these shortwave troughs will also influence winds across the region, bringing their own potential for impacts.

Regardless, confidence is too low to comment on potential for impacts beyond Thursday from snow and wind, as predictability in synoptic evolution/track as well as mesoscale features is too low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1126 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions are currently prevailing across eastern ND with mid level clouds (10000 FT AGL) starting to move into the region from the northwest. MVFR stratus over northwest MN has eroded some on the western edge of the cloud deck, but has generally held firm as the main shift in BL flow is still to the west in ND and the Red River Valley. Guidance supports IFR ceilings for a period of the morning hours before sunrise Tuesday within this region of stratus, with improvement to VFR favored mid to late morning as low pressure finally shifts east.

A mid level wave will bring light snow to the region from the northwest to southeast, with the best chances for light accumulating snow and visibility reductions in northeast ND and northwest MN. Low pressure and a cold front passing through the region also bring widespread stratus and shifting and increasing winds from the south to west then northwest Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.