textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy on Tuesday, with gusts up to 55 mph. The highest gusts will be in the Devils Lake Basin.

- A strong winter storm will impact the region Wednesday night through Thursday, bringing a high chance of blizzard conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 1000 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A few light snow showers/flurries may track along the US/Canada border tonight and across the Lake of the Woods Region along the leading edge of the LLJ and WAA axis. The better returns on radar in Manitoba look to remain north, but some lighter returns align with where there is a weak signal in some CAMs mainly towards our northeast after midnight. Minor adjustments were made to reflect this brief period of light showers.

UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Temperatures dropped quickly where light winds and clear skies are in place (along and east of the RRV) with some locations in the single digits. This shouldn't persist as the gradient is beginning to increase in ND and WAA/mixing will result in non standard diurnal trends through the night (rising temperatures), with locations in our west likely rise above freezing after midnight (this air mass in already reflected in obs over western ND). Near term adjustments were made to sky cover/temp trends otherwise the general forecast is on track.

..Blizzard Potential Thursday

A hybrid system dragging Pacific moisture eastward, along with some influence of Gulf moisture will track through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. While there is still uncertainty, a clearer picture is coming into focus. First, this system will bring widespread, high winds due to a strong pressure gradient on it's backside. EFI has nearly the entire FA from the Red River Valley west in values of 0.9 or greater (a guide for warning level winds), with a shift of tails. Winds at 925 mb are shown to be in the 60 to 75 knot range, depending on which model you use from the 12z to 21z Thursday timeframe in the central/northern Red River Valley. Winds of this magnitude have the potential to bring significant visibility reductions during ANY periods of falling snow. The second piece of the puzzle is the snow forecast. A majority of ensembles keep the heaviest snow just north of or near the Canadian Border, with our FA receiving up to an inch. Meanwhile, other ensemble members show higher snowfall totals (2-4 inches) falling along and north of Highway 2 or so. The differences in snowfall totals is tied to the track of the low, as some members are further south then others.

While a more northerly track would result in less snow, it would bring higher winds, and while a further south track would bring more snow to blow around, winds would be ever so slightly lower. Both scenarios still bring a period of high winds in conjunction with falling snow over a large swath of the FA during the Thursday morning commute. Therefore, the difference in real world impacts of which track it takes will likely be low. While there is a high chance for blizzard conditions somewhere within the FA Thursday morning, the exact area and duration remains more uncertain. For example, if slightly more snow falls (2+ inches), blizzard conditions will likely be maintained longer into the afternoon as winds do not look to decrease all that rapidly. If snow falls further south then forecast, blizzard conditions will become more widespread then currently forecast. Therefore, while uncertainty still exists, we do know that for at least portions of our FA that this system will bring high impacts Wednesday night into Thursday. Please continue to monitor the forecast in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 539 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions should prevail in eastern ND through the TAF period. There is still a lingering area of MVFR stratus in northwest MN near KTVF and KBJI that should push east/northeast as drier air moves into the region with the shifting pattern. VFR would then be favored in northwest MN as well.

Strong low pressure building to the west will result in increasing gradient this evening and overnight with southerly winds increasing through the overnight and morning period Tuesday. A strong cold front moves through the day Tuesday west to east, and winds shift to the west and increase further behind this front(gusts 35-40kt). A strong LLJ (50-65kt) develops into the region as well and there are strong indications that both low level directional and speed shear will develop as this moves into the region later tonight and Tuesday.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ008-016-027- 029-030-038-039-049-052-053. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014- 015-024-026-028-054. MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027>029.