textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Need to monitor RH today as near critical fire weather conditions may occur this afternoon in parts of northwest Minnesota.

- Not as hot over the weekend into next week. Majority of the shower chances are west of the Red River valley thru Sunday. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms across all of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota will be early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

500 mb ridge axis is becoming thinner and is a bit farther east today with axis from northern Manitoba into northeast Minnesota and into Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. This will allow a more south to southeast flow at 500 mb into the area today and into the weekend. This will bring increased cloud cover, mostly of the high or mid cloud variety and overall not as hot conditions. Mid level moisture for shower chances remains on the low side but a few rain showers are possible this afternoon and into the weekend in an arc from eastern South Dakota into southern then back into western North Dakota. Instability is limited with MUCAPE values mostly less than 1000 j/kg. Rainfall as well looks very light as airmass beneath the cloud bases will remain dry.

For this afternoon RH values, thinking increased high clouds will temper highs a bit from prev fcst in Baudette-Bemidji- Wadena areas and with very light winds 5 kts or less thru 925 mb and 10-15 kts to 700 mb in north central MN mixing of drier air to the surface is going to be difficult. Therefore anticipate RH values to lower into the 25-30 percent range in northwest and north central MN this afternoon. The RH values will need to be monitored in case they are lower and near critical fire weather messaging needs to be introduced in parts of MN.

..Shower and thunderstorm chances

A few of the models break out some showers with the SD shortwave late Friday into Friday night and approach our southeastern ND counties. Model soundings have a lot of dry air to overcome at low levels so don't think too much will reach the ground. There is some weak instability and HREF has some spotty 30 percent probabilities of thunder tomorrow afternoon and evening, so can't rule out some lightning but at this point nothing severe is expected. Additional shortwaves trying to break into the blocking ridge could bring a few stray showers and thunderstorms west of the Red River Valley at times over the weekend, but the better chances for more widespread precipitation look to arrive early to mid-week. A few of the machine learning runs have some low probabilities of severe storms for this period, but predictability too low to mention in any messaging at this point.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR today but with increasing high and some mid level cloud cover over the area thru tonight. Light south to southeast wind in NW MN under 10 kts. Rest of the area south to southeast wind 10 to 20 kts mid morning thru late afternoon then around 10 kts overnight. Isold showers possible this aftn/eve in RRV.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.