textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- A swath of wintry precip (2-4" of snow) will fall tonight across northeast North Dakota with icing in northwest Minnesota bringing minor travel impacts.

..Wintry mix tonight through the Friday morning commute

As the closed mid/upper low passes along/north of the US/Canada border an elevated baroclinic zone will pass into the region where strong frontogenesis will support an area of wintry precipitation along with embedded banding primarily in northeast ND and far northwest MN. This arrives as the main/stronger push of CAA undercuts strong WAA loft resulting in a pronounced warm nose over our CWA. Forcing weakening as it progresses east and northeast resulting in decreasing precipitation rates and coverage late morning into Friday afternoon, and lowering confidence in impacts over southeast ND and west central MN.

Along this axis all precipitation types (freezing rain, sleet, snow) could occur until the deeper cold pushes in aloft (behind the main axis of precipitation). Where more of a wintry mix occurs, accumulating sleet and freezing rain will cause light icing impacts and slick travel impacts through the Friday morning commute. Where banding correlates with deeper cold profiles primarily snow may lead to 2-3" of localized totals and brief whiteout conditions due to gusty winds/falling snow. The main transition zone and track of the organized precipitation area as advertised by both NBM, HREF, and REFS is from Barnes County to Grand Forks Counties. HREF probs for a glaze of ice exceed 70% along this axis with 30-40% probs for 0.1" of ice. NBM probs are a bit lower, but still show a 70% neighborhood probability for at least a light glaze in northeast ND and far northwest MN. While there is a signal/chance for a wintry mix to the south and east, confidence based on the current consensus supports advisory conditions primarily in northeast ND and northwest MN. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued from midnight to 10am CDT where confidence is highest in travel impacts.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Showers are ongoing in and around BJI and FAR with this continuing through the next few hours with a few lightning strikes surprisingly observed in the last few hours near BJI. Snow moving in west to east in the next 6 hours for all but BJI who will have to wait until the late morning for anything more than on and off showers. MVFR is quickly overspreading ND sites and will begin to impact MN sites by 12z with all sites reaching near IFR (sub 1500ft) and pockets of IFR (currently favoring DVL, TVF, and BJI) between now and noon. How persistent these IFR ceilings are is unknown as they may jump around a bit depending on precip rates. BLSN still looking possible in DVL through the early afternoon and especially during falling snow the next 6 hours. Freezing rain still looks to impact GFK, TVF and possibly FAR but lowest confidence with southward extent.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-054. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001-004- 005-007-008-013.