textproduct: Grand Forks

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk Monday as a frontal boundary moves through.

..Severe chances Sunday night and again Monday

The shortwave coming over the top of the upper ridge late Sunday could bring some storms to north central ND that could clip our far northwestern counties. HREF updraft helicity probabilities are not too impressive with only a few members showing any paintballs in Towner county, but can't rule out a few isolated cells. Better, but still marginal chances for severe storms will be Monday as the frontal boundary sags south into our area. Ensemble mean CAPE according to the NBM gets over 2000 J/kg by Monday afternoon and deep layer shear increases to 35 to 40 kts. Still a few days away, but if the trends that the NBM shows hold Monday looks like a fairly busy convective day.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 914 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Overall, conditions will be quiet through the morning hours. Winds will remain light and variable beneath VFR ceilings. Winds will increase from the south through the day tomorrow. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop tomorrow afternoon/evening, but the predictability for TAF site impacts is low, so it was foregone from this routine issuance.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.

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