textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled week ahead. Shower and t-storm chances spread east Tuesday late into Wednesday, then again Friday into Saturday.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening over the Devils Lake Basin. - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening over eastern North Dakota and the Red River valley.

..Severe Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday

Heading into Wednesday, the H5 upper low moves slightly further to the east, thus bringing our axis of instability further into eastern North Dakota. Where it ends up will depend on a number of factors; however, there will be another boundary pushing to the southeast later Wednesday afternoon. This will serve to provide additional lift and forcing, further supporting thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Initiation timing is also a bit uncertain at this time, mainly because there could be remnant showers ongoing during the morning hours and limiting daytime heating. The environment will be supportive of severe storms as MLCAPE climbs to near 2000 J/Kg and lapse rates remain strong. Low to mid level shear will be located close to the boundary once more; however, better forcing is expected as the reinforcing boundary pushes to the southeast during the afternoon and evening. Current storm mode favors hybrid clusters, followed by the potential for upscale growth into line segments and/or QLCS. Once more, soundings support all hazards.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail at all sites except KDVL this afternoon. Look for slow, but gradual improvement from west to east, with VFR ceilings developing later in the afternoon into the evening hours. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast, generally in the 5-10 knot range through late this evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight, then increase to around 10 knots Tuesday morning. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon; however, timing remains uncertain as guidance varies with regards to initiation of storms in central North Dakota. Once storms form, they will move eastward, with the highest impact chances at KDVL and KGFK.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.