textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Light wintry mix Saturday morning across the north, area wide Saturday night. The chance for advisory level impacts is low.

..Fog, Warmth and Wintry mix on Saturday

A weak wave passing through tonight will spark off light precipitation near the International Border. Soundings show a deep warm layer, which should keep most precipitation as rain. The one caveat is surface temperatures, which may briefly be near freezing around the Lake of the Woods. If temperatures are slightly below freezing, an extremely brief period of freezing rain would occur. However, this looks more and more unlikely with each passing model run. Further to the south and west, a still moist boundary layer and light winds up to 900 mb should promote at least pockets of fog tonight into Saturday morning. The most likely areas are along US Highway 2 north to the International Border, west of the forests of MN. Areas in southeastern ND and west central MN do not look to have as much moisture within the boundary layer, along with a touch higher winds overnight, which should limit fog development.

Temperatures on Saturday will vary widely from south to north. 925 mb temperatures of 15C and 850 mb values around 13C gives surface high temperatures in the low to mid 70s across southeastern ND. Soundings show good mixing, up to 850 mb or even a little higher. Added together, southern areas are likely to see their first 70 degree readings of the year. Further north, temperatures will be warm, but remnant snowpack and a little CAA behind the overnight wave will promote highs generally in the 30s. Between the warmth in the south and cold in the north, a massive temperature gradient will exist between US Highway 2 and I-94. Along Highway 2, temperatures will be near 50. Along I-94, temperatures will be well into the mid to upper 60s. While warm for mid March, record high temperatures are still 5 to 10 degrees warmer then forecasted afternoon highs.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

This evening through Saturday morning: VFR conditions should prevail in southeast ND and parts of west central MN, with aviation impacts from fog and stratus more likely in northeast ND and northwest MN (generally along and north of Highway 2). MVFR conditions are expected by late evening at KDVL-KGLD-KTVF and there should at least be a period of IFR conditions by late evening or early overnight due to new fog/stratus development with a chance for LIFR/VLIFR. The signal continues to be more variable though for dense fog and those lower end conditions, lowering confidence. A period of low level wind shear is also expected as a 30-40kt jet migrates from central ND and over southeast ND overnight.

Saturday: Winds shift to the west to northwest then north and increase behind a cold front. This should help improve visibilities as winds mix the lower levels, however the behind the frontal passage widespread MVFR (possible IFR) stratus is likely to overspread eastern ND and northwest MN behind it which would then linger into Saturday night. The front also brings a low chance (20%) for a very light wintry mix which may include brief freezing rain (amounts would be very low).

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.