textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today and into Sunday, mainly west of the Red River.
- Several periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday through Friday, with better chances for wetting rainfall over more of the region. There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
..Showers and Thunderstorms Today Through Next Week
Today: There is very little in the way of instability for thunderstorm development. Areas with higher MUCAPE are situated too far under the ridge to have access to any meaningful lift. The best chance for isolated development will be in northeast North Dakota and the northern Red River Valley, where low level lapse rates are a bit higher.
Sunday: Western flank of the upper ridge remains in place just west of the CWA. Isolated thunderstorm development could occur in southeast North Dakota and the southern Red River Valley, mainly during the late afternoon. Mid level lapse rates could support small hail; however, lightning will be the main risk.
Monday-Friday: Upper ridging gradually weakens through the week, with upper flow turning nearly zonal by mid week. Shortwave activity will allow for a mention of thunderstorms nearly each day, with the possibility for strong storms by Tuesday. ML products show a 5-15 percent chance for strong storms Tuesday and Wednesday. It is worth noting, however, that shortwave timing is uncertain due to current ensemble spread.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
VFR conditions prevail this afternoon and evening at all TAF sites. For KDVL, there will be a chance for MVFR ceilings during the late evening and overnight, as well as a low chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Elsewhere, look for scattered to broken VFR clouds, along with south to southeast winds at 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 25 knots are possible through much of the TAF period as high pressure remains to the east of the area.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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