textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures are forecast this weekend into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Large upper low and trough over central Canada gradually moves east and is replaced by a broad upper ridge Friday-Sunday period as a large upper trough moves into California and the southwestern US. Lingering area of 850 mb moisture and stratocu on south edge of upper low from southern Saskatchewan thru northern North Dakota into northern Minnesota will gradually scatter out or move out thru the next 24 hours. As flow aloft turns southwest this weekend, there is a weak upper level shortwave that will bring a chance for light rain Saturday.

..Synopsis

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a mid level shortwave trough moving east-northeast through the Dakotas and Minnesota amid quasi- southwesterly to zonal flow aloft. At the surface, an occluded front is working its way west to east. Seasonably rich moisture and even some instability resides east of the surface front ahead of the shortwave trough. This is driving scattered light showers within the Red River Valley and Minnesota this afternoon. The window for additional thunderstorms in west- central MN has closed with instability already being shunted away to the east.

Tonight, a reinforcing cold front will reintroduce low stratus to areas along and north of US Highway 2, with mostly clear skies elsewhere. This along with increasing surface high pressure nosing into the region and lightening winds may allow temperatures to drop into the mid 20s within portions of eastern ND.

Thursday will be seasonably cool with highs in the 40s and dry amid the post-frontal air mass. Starting Friday, ensemble guidance all points toward upper ridging building into the Northern Plains. This will trend temperatures toward above average, particularly by Saturday. The way this upper ridging builds may also promote low stratus, fog/drizzle - this lowers confidence in exactly how warm temperatures get. Should low clouds/fog/drizzle linger, temperatures may be just slightly above average with high temperatures in the 50s. However, if skies clear, temperatures could soar well into the 60s - especially on Sunday into Monday.

Getting into early to mid next week, ensemble guidance also hints at an upper shortwave trough in the Southwest to either translate or cut off eastward into the Southern and/or Central Plains. While most of this forcing looks to remain south of our area, there could be enough influence from this feature to bring the next round of light rain into the forecast. With how warm antecedent temperatures will be ahead of this feature, as well as lack of colder air advecting behind it, rain would be the favored precipitation type.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Clouds in northern ND and northern MN are in the 2000 to 3500 ft agl range. Some clearing is occurring pretty quick into the northern RRV toward KGFK. In general will see more gradual clearing thru the day. Increase in mid clouds overnight. West- northwest wind today 8-13kts then near calm overnight.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.