textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and Thursday. Chance for critical fire weather conditions in Red River Valley late morning to early afternoon Thursday.

- Next chance for widespread rain comes Friday and Saturday, with overall light amounts under half an inch and very low chance for thunder.

..Fire weather conditions

Gusty south to southeast winds between lee surface troughing in the western Dakotas and a departing surface high pressure will keep winds elevated today, tonight, and Thursday. The pressure gradient and mixing winds aloft are not overly strong, generally around 15-30 mph. Gusts will be more intermittent tonight compared to this afternoon and Thursday. Gusts are expected to ramp up quickly in the morning as daytime mixes into the residual overnight low level jet.

Thursday's RH values are forecast to be in the 30s percent, with upper 20s near central MN. There is a 20% chance RH values in the upper 20s are more widespread through the rest of MN into Red River Valley.

Overlap of highest winds and lowest RH values currently looks to be within the Red River Valley, with around a 20% chance to see critical fire weather conditions here late morning through early afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Winds will be south to southeast throughout the TAF period, around 10-15kt this afternoon into tonight. Frequent gusts around 23kt in North Dakota and the Red River Valley before sunset, with intermittent similar gusts possible overnight. Location and duration of overnight gusts are low in confidence. Winds increase shortly after sunrise Thursday 15-25 kt. Chance for gusts exceeding 30kt is very low at this time. Low level wind shear is confidently forecast tonight, although confidence in location is lowered, with KBJI liable to see LLWS as well as rest of TAF sites. Ceilings are forecast to remain VFR.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.