textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There are low chances for precipitation next week, with the chance for advisory impacts from either snow accumulation or light freezing rain less than 10 percent.

UPDATE

Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Winds continue to diminish and temperatures continue to fall to near or below freezing. Cloud cover in the south may be enough to keep temperatures just above freezing, but the majority will experience the 20s overnight. No impacts are expected.

UPDATE Issued at 603 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The surface high continues to slowly inch towards our area as winds continue to diminish. Midlevel clouds exist across southeast North Dakota and may impact low temperatures tonight, however confidence in how much is low. For this reason, the forecast remains on track. Regardless of changes in temperature, impacts overnight will remain the same.

..Wintry Precip Chances Next Week

Monday night into Tuesday, an upper low moves across parts of the Central Plains and into the Midwest. The northern reaches of this system could bring a mix of rain and snow into southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. QPF potential is quite low with this system, and widespread impacts are not expected. Looking into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance has been quite variable in the previous several days. This is mainly due to the low predictability of split flow pattern timing. The GEFS suite of ensembles favors a drier setup, with about a 10-15% chance to see measurable precip in parts of northwest Minnesota Wednesday night into Thursday morning; however, the ECMWF and AIFS show a slightly better chance, roughly a 30-40 percent chance of 0.1 inch of liquid precip. Temperatures at the time are expected to be right at or just above freezing at the surface, with temperature profiles aloft just as uncertain as the pattern itself. At this time, there is a slight favoring of light rain and/or freezing rain, with a lower chance for snow; however, we should better model convergence as the system approaches.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Low aviation impacts are expected for the TAF period as winds will become light and variable beneath VFR skies. No visibility reductions are expected either. Easterly winds may increase by the end of the TAF period at DVL but will still remain below 10 knots.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.