textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through at least Saturday.

..Synopsis

A tranquil stretch of October weather is upon us the next few days. Responsible for the overall quiet weather is our regions placement in a dry, northwesterly flow pattern aloft. The only weather today to note is a warm front that is lifting northward. The area of strongest WAA can be approximated on satellite by the shield of developing cloud cover over southeastern ND into west central MN. This lift should be enough to generate a couple of showers later this afternoon and evening as it tracks through west central MN. There is meager instability (MUCAPE of up to 500 J/Kg), which may produce a stray strike or two of lightning with the strongest showers. However, dry air near the surface will limit most locations from meaningful rainfall.

Midweek, a wave passes to our north and east. While no precipitation is forecasted in this FA, it will bring a period of cooler but still above average temperatures (more upper 60s and low 70s to end the week versus widespread 70s on Monday/Tuesday).

Thereafter, upper flow become more amplified, with troughing over the western CONUS, and ridging downstream over the central/eastern US. This will set our region up into some variation of a southwest/split flow by the very end of the weekend into the first part of next week. While model guidance is picking up on this more active pattern, there are quite a few disagreements in the details, ranging from how many waves are ejected into the region, the timing of each, and their strength. While this uncertainty keeps precipitation specifics murky, there is agreement within model guidance that after a brief warmup with widespread 70s on Saturday, we will cool down substantially by next Monday. High temperatures by Monday are forecasted to be on either side of 50 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR will prevail throughout the TAF period. Winds will be out of the south/southeast today, with gusts during the afternoon in the 18 to 25 knot range. After sunset, winds will decrease. Overnight, LLWS will be a concern at KBJI. KFAR is on the edge of where LLWS is expected to develop. At this time, LLWS was not added to the KFAR TAF, but if there is a shift westward it may need to be included in future TAF issuance. For Tuesday, winds increase again, this time out of the west/northwest, with sustained winds up to 12 knots during Tuesday morning. Any potential for gusts holds off until after this TAF period, into Tuesday afternoon.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.