textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions for far southeast North Dakota and parts of west central and northwest Minnesota this afternoon and early evening. Near critical fire weather conditions today for the remainder of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

- Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Thursday afternoon east of the Red River. Main hazards are 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.

UPDATE

Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

After coordination, updgraded fire weather watch to red flag warning for winds and lowest RH values in the mid 20s percent. Will mention near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon in rest of eastern North Dakota where RH values will drop to 30 to 35 percent north of I-94. Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon as well in northwest Minnesota in areas north of the red flag warning. Coord with BIS/DLH.

UPDATE Issued at 1117 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Southeast winds continue this evening with temperatures across the area in the 50s. Look for winds to gradually increase during the overnight period, with gusts increasing after sunrise. Overall, the forecast remains on track this evening, with only minor changes to precip timing later Wednesday evening.

..Marginal risk Thursday

Probabilities from the ensemble for over 500 J/kg of surface based CAPE are around 80 to 90 percent in a narrow band ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. While chances for getting to 1000 J/kg or above are lower, only around 40 percent, there will be some very good deep layer bulk shear at 40 to 50 kts. Much will depend on how showers and a few elevated storms play out Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Still, high enough chance to include a mention for Marginal risk Thursday afternoon. Hail up to 1 inch and winds to 60 mph will be the main threat, but with the boundary in the area can't completely rule out a quick tornado spin up.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1117 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. The primary concern for this TAF issuance will be LLWS as upper boundary layer winds increase overnight to near 30 knots. Southeast winds gradually increase just after sunrise, with gusts to near 30 knots developing heading into the late morning and into midday. Gusty winds will likely continue into the evening, although gusts should become less frequent later Wednesday evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ049-052-053. MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ017-024-028>032-040.