textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures this week thorugh at least early next week. This will continue to erode the snowpack, although no hydrological impacts are anticipated at this time.

- The chance for impactful winter weather the weekend is very low.

- Mid to late next week may bring a more active precipitation pattern, although confidence is low in potential for impacts.

UPDATE

Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Updated the early morning forecast grids for sky cover and fog areas. Low IFR cloud deck has spread southwest overnight into GFK/FAR while clearing of a mid cloud deck has worked east past DVL. BJI area has remained on the edge of clear/cloud. Overall cloud area is from Langdon, Cavalier into Detroit Lakes, Wadena area. Patchy fog does exist but remains quite variable in location centered around Langdon and in the Detroit Lakes region. During the course of the morning the sky and fog situation will play havoc but eventually improves.

..Pattern change next week

As mentioned above, all ensemble suites agree in some degree of southwesterly flow aloft over the Plains and Upper Midwest as upper troughing digs near the Pacific coast. This typically brings a more active precipitation pattern to these regions. However, the location, strength, and orientation of upstream troughing as well as downstream ridging will greatly influence how eventual synoptic evolution of energy/moisture emanates into the Plains and Upper Midwest. This greatly lowers predictability in potential amount and location of precipitation, including accumulating snow, thus lowers confidence greatly in potential for impacts.

A large number of potential solutions exists next week, ranging from several bouts of quick moving waves and associated snow/rain/wintry mix, to very little precipitation due to misalignment of synoptic wave ejections out of the Western upper trough.

Ultimately to say, while the general expected pattern might promote active precipitation, confidence in this actually happening is quite low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Chaotic sky coverage and base heights to the clouds as we approach 12z. IFR cigs Langdon thru GFK to Detroit Lakes with edge of low IFR clouds at BJI and Fargo. Clearing has worked east past DVL but scattered low clouds around may mean more devlopment the next few hours. Overall low confidence in IFR cloud deck clearing, esp when. Eventually will see improvement but no clear signal from model data on when, esp GFK area.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.