textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for heat impacts this afternoon with heat indices in the 90s and 100s in eastern North Dakota and northwest into west- central Minnesota. - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Thursday morning and afternoon, potentially bringing hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts to 60 mph. Locally heavy rainfall may also lead to minor flooding.

..Strong to severe storms Thursday

As the cold front sags into eastern ND and the northern Red River Valley Thursday morning, thunderstorms are expected to develop as early as mid morning. Additional thunderstorms will percolate and merge with each other given increasing forcing for ascent as well as overall weak flow within the cloud baring layer - the exception to weak flow is in the upper portions of the cloud layer which may help vent storms and provide some hail generation, although not anticipating very large hail with this activity (generally not anticipating hail greater than 1 inch).

While overall flow is weak, high lower level moisture and high temperatures along with cooling temperatures aloft are contributing to DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. This will drive potential for strong gusts to 60 mph, and would be more likely to occur should outflow from cluster/s of storms consolidate.

Convective rates of at least 1 inch per hour will bring the potential for heavy rain leading to flash flooding, particularly over more vulnerable landscapes like urban areas and poor drainage areas. This is driven by relatively slow storm motions of thunderstorms amid rich moisture and high instability, and potential for training storms. Relatively higher chance for this to occur resides in the southern Red River Valley into west-central MN. With ongoing very dry antecedent conditions, rural landscapes will likely not be as vulnerable to flooding compared to urban landscapes.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

There are several periods of potentially impactful weather sprinkled throughout the TAF period. First is wildfire smoke. Current visibility observations have maintained VFR values, but there have been a few sites reporting in the 6 to 8 mile range at times. Therefore, this set of TAFs shows VFR visibilities holding at least through early tomorrow. Next is the potential for thunderstorms, first at KDVL tonight, then more area wide into Thursday morning and afternoon. PROB30s were maintained or added at KDVL and KFAR, as there is enough model guidance agreement to highlight a specific timeframe for storm development. Some addition of TEMPOs/PROB30s are likely at other terminals in future TAF iterations, its just that at this time, the timing of thunderstorm activity is too wide to pin down a period worth highlighting. Finally, winds will switch from the south to the north by the end of the TAF period at most terminals. Winds should not be all that high, generally under 12 knots. However, there may be higher and variable winds under thunderstorm activity.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027>032-040.