textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures return next week, bringing periodic chances for near critical to critical fire weather.

UPDATE

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Some scattered snow showers across the area tonight with cold air advection the primary driver with good mixing leading to a saturated top of the BL within the DGZ. As CAA weakens over the next 6 hours shower activity will slowly slide east into mainly NW MN with the upper low's movement. Impacts from these snow showers will be limited to a dent in people's morale from still seeing snow in mid/late April :)

..Synopsis

The remnants of the winter system from last night remains across portions of northwest Minnesota, bringing periods of snow across that area. With the increased solar angle this time of year, sublimation processes allow for winter impacts to be significantly limited, really only arising in the form of visibility reductions.

Deep upper troughing will keep our temperatures cold and dry this weekend. High temperatures this weekend will be generally be fairly cool in the upper 30s to low 40s. Heights begin to rise early next week, so temperatures will rise through next week. Moisture return is meager at best. With temperatures in the 60s and 70s expected next week, this brings the potential for near critical to critical fire weather through next week. The greatest chances for this look to be midweek where HDWI probabilities really highlight exceeding 90th percentile. ERC percentiles per NRCC look to become much more favorable next week, and with live fuel moistures remaining at 30%, Red Flag Warnings are a possibility depending on mesoscale features such as cloud cover and vertical mixing, which carries a lower predictability horizon.

The next chances for precipitation look to be late next week as ridging propagates eastward and returns moisture flow to the region. The profiles appear to be warm, so at this point in time it appears more likely than not that rain will be the primary issue, however winter precipitation cannot be ruled out depending on how things shake out. In any case, EFI isn't setting off any alarm bells for precipitation amounts, so there is a low probability for any significant impacts at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Mostly low VFR CIGS with some terminals still siting MVFR at 2500-3000ft on and off through the mid morning. Snow showers moving east with minimal impact to operations but these may be driving these local CIG reductions. Winds remaining NW at 15-20kts and gusting up to 30kts through the period but drop below 12kts at all sites by the end of the period.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.