textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat wave occurring today and Monday with very hot temperatures and high humidity.

- Heat impacts may linger through the work week. This may influence drought development within the region, as well as fire weather conditions.

..Heat Impacts May Linger

Heat impacts may extend into Tuesday / mid week in southeast ND and west-central MN. This will depend on how far an eventual dry cold front moves through late Monday into Tuesday. It is possible, additionally heat impacts (and subsequent headlines) may linger in these areas into mid week.

While the hottest temperatures aloft will moderate next week beyond Monday, there is a cluster of ensemble guidance that still keeps anomalously high temperatures aloft within the Dakotas and Minnesota through Friday. This includes some guidance suggesting 850mb of at least 90th percentile compared to climatology.

This would introduce potential for long duration heat impacts. And while heat indices may not reach 100F, heat indices well into the 90s, high to extreme wet bulb globe temperatures, as well as poor overnight recovery is maintaining HeatRisk in the Major to Extreme categories within southeast ND and west-central MN through at least Thursday.

Should this heat linger through the work week next week, this would be unusually long heat wave for our region. This may necessitate the need for extension of Extreme Heat Warnings next week.

This will also have implications on rapidly developing drought within the region, of which the CPC has outlooked our region for this potential.

Additionally, this would serve to dry out fuels for subsequent fire conditions. This is something we will be on the look out for.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, with very hot temperatures in the upper 90s/100s across the region again Monday afternoon. Low level wind shear (40-45kt) is expected through the early morning hours Monday. Southwest winds increase again Monday, and there is a low chance (20%) for periodic wind gusts around 30kt over parts of the Red River Valley through the afternoon. A frontal zone moves out of Canada late in the afternoon and winds will begin to decrease and become variable as this settles into northeast ND by the evening hours.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...Extreme Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027>032-040. Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT Monday through Monday evening for MNZ005-006-008-009-016-017-023-024.