textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow tonight into Saturday across far southeast North Dakota and parts of west central Minnesota. 35 percent chance of more than 3 inches in areas near the South Dakota border.

- Below average temperatures for the weekend and into next week, with low chances for some minor winter impacts towards the end of the week.

..Cold temperatures and low chances for snow into next week

ECMWF EFI has a pretty good signal for colder than average temperatures as we move into next week, and this fits the mean synoptic pattern. Not as strong of a signal for precipitation, although the ensemble members do show various shortwaves moving through, particularly towards the end of the period. Cold is certain, any winter impacts from snow less so.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Areas of MVFR status and flurries continue to linger over much of northeast ND and northwest MN, with an area of VFR conditions over southeast ND. Short range guidance is not handling the currently extend of MVFR conditions well compared to obs/satellite and I am not as confident based on trends that prevailing VFR will arrive farther north before the low pressure system brings near low stratus into the region and I made more pessimistic adjustments to better reflect current trends.

Later tonight and Saturday morning the new stratus with a chance (30%) for IFR conditions arrives in southeastern ND as accumulating snow moves along the ND/SD border eventually into west central MN. The best chance for prolonged VFR conditions may not arrive until much drier low level air advects in behind the low pressure (winds shifting to the northwest) late Saturday afternoon and evening, otherwise the pattern will continue to support highly variable ceilings.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.