textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances Monday into Tuesday mainly south of US-2, some may see the first snowflakes of the season overnight.

- Seasonable high temperatures in the 40s and 50s will be common throughout the next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Winds are lessening to less than 10 mph, with some areas already seeing calm winds - mainly in southeast ND and west-central MN. This along with surface high pressure centered in the Dakotas will allow temperatures to dip well into the 20s for some locations, most likely in Devils Lake basin and potentially southeast ND/southern Red River valley where the air mass is locally drier. Questions remain on how low southeast ND/southern Red River Valley will go due to increasing cloud cover.

This also introduces some questions on whether or not fog will develop within the region. As of now, model guidance is not suggesting potential for fog, mainly due to the dryness of the air mass. And while recent soaking rainfall mostly fell in northwest MN, winds are forecast to be not quite calm.

..Synopsis

Behind a sweeping cold front skies are becoming mostly clear with dry air advecting in, while temperatures have returned to seasonal values with lows in the 20s and 30s tonight. The overall pattern through the next week results in persistent precipitation chances as the region rides in a baroclinic zone with southwest flow aloft. This also favors no significant fluctuation from these near average temperatures, though trending slightly warmer for the second half of the week.

Ensemble guidance shows increased potential for a hybrid-type, progressive shortwave and associated low pressure system to move through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Monday into Tuesday. Confidence is high for periods of rain for areas south of US-2, while more moderate confidence exists for the extent of moisture into the northern zones as well as any accumulation of snow occurring overnight. This will largely be depending on forcing and having sufficient rates to accumulating more than a dusting on elevated or grassy surfaces. The most favorable area for seeing snow is west of the Red River Valley Monday night, though most model solutions support areas with heavier precipitation rates remaining as rain or a mix.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Medium to high confidence in VFR conditions prevailing throughout the TAF period. Overnight winds will be less than 10kt, and at some locations will be light and variable. There will be some high altitude clouds moving through the region overnight tonight. This may promote some patchy fog within the region.

As of now, areas like southeast ND and the southern Red River Valley hold relatively higher chances at seeing fog compared to other locations, although confidence is not high in fog developing at all. This is mainly due to questions regarding where winds remain light and variable while skies remain clear/mostly clear. This is the only aspect degrading confidence in VFR dominating the forecast.

During the day Sunday, winds increase out of the northwest 10-15kt in northeast ND and northwest MN, whereas southeast ND and west-central MN stay under 10kt.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.