textproduct: Grand Forks
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Above average temperatures this week thorugh at least early next week. This will continue to erode the snowpack, although no hydrological impacts are anticipated at this time.
- The chance for impactful winter weather the weekend is very low.
- Mid to late next week may bring a more active precipitation pattern, although confidence is low in potential for impacts.
..Pattern change next week
As mentioned above, all ensemble suites agree in some degree of southwesterly flow aloft over the Plains and Upper Midwest as upper troughing digs near the Pacific coast. This typically brings a more active precipitation pattern to these regions. However, the location, strength, and orientation of upstream troughing as well as downstream ridging will greatly influence how eventual synoptic evolution of energy/moisture emanates into the Plains and Upper Midwest. This greatly lowers predictability in potential amount and location of precipitation, including accumulating snow, thus lowers confidence greatly in potential for impacts.
A large number of potential solutions exists next week, ranging from several bouts of quick moving waves and associated snow/rain/wintry mix, to very little precipitation due to misalignment of synoptic wave ejections out of the Western upper trough.
Ultimately to say, while the general expected pattern might promote active precipitation, confidence in this actually happening is quite low.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Ceilings and visibility reductions from fog are the main aviation hazards through this TAF period. A deck of MVFR stratus has been parked over KTVF and KBJI, with KGFK riding the edge this afternoon. Into this evening, we should see clearing at KGFK, with KTVF and KBJI remaining stuck under MVFR ceilings. As we go into tonight, fog is expected to develop. However, its coverage and exact location remains uncertain. Therefore, added in lower MVFR visibilities at all sites for several hours Wednesday morning. At sites such as KDVL and KBJI, where confidence in fog is a bit higher, IFR visibilities were added, and ceilings were substituted for IFR vertical visibilities. Visibilities will improve late morning as fog burns off.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None. MN...None.
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