textproduct: Grand Forks

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 70 mph would be the primary threats.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected today and Sunday across north central Minnesota. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions may develop in these areas Monday and Tuesday.

..Fire Weather

The isolated/widely scattered storms in our northeast are less likely to provide wetting rain and may carry a dry thunderstorm risk before they dissipate early this evening. Fuels in the forested regions of Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Hubbard counties continue to be areas of concern for fire partners and with less confidence in wetting rains in those areas will continue to be locations to monitor into early next week. Today and Sunday RH values may fall near 40% during the afternoon/early evening periods, with breezier conditions on Sunday (gusts to 25 mph). Much windier conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday with the potential for post frontal wind gusts 30-35 mph in our east (around 40 mph along and west of the Red River Valley). It is possible that grassier areas of southeast ND may be drying out enough that near critical or critical fire weather conditions could develop in those areas if they remain dry from the Sunday night/Monday thunderstorm activity. Confidence in lower RH values are lower Monday as cloud cover and faster frontal arrivals may create a larger spread in potential RH from the north to the south (60% in the north and 40% ahead of the front). Tuesday may carry the better chance for 40% or lower RH depending on how warm temperatures actually get (cloud cover and cooler airmass).

In any case, near critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue in north central MN each afternoon/early evening through Tuesday, and we will continue to monitor for the potential for critical/RFW conditions over the upcoming windier pattern.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR throughout the TAF period. Winds will decrease after sunset, becoming light and variable at most terminals. Winds will increase again on Sunday, with gusts by the afternoon. Wind direction will be southerly. Just beyond this TAF period, thunderstorms are forecast. While outside the current TAF period, they will likely bring impacts to at least a handful of terminals Sunday evening.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.