textproduct: Atlanta/Peachtree City

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area Today through Thursday morning. Several storms may be severe, capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from late Wednesday through Thursday morning for portions of North and Central GA where a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall and localized amounts over 4 inches may lead to flooding in poor drainage and flood prone areas.

- Cooler temperatures Thursday into Friday will give way to a warming trend through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 352 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Low to mid-level flow has turned out of the S to SW and is bringing in a warm moist airmass. Dewpoints are slowly rising this morning and should be mainly in the lower 60s by daybreak. Currently there are no showers across the state but the Hi-Ress models are showing showers moving into NW GA just before daybreak this morning. These showers are associated with the approaching frontal system oriented NE to SW across TN/KY. As the frontal boundary continues to push southeast into the warm and humid airmass, it will likely create multiple rounds of widespread showers and storms across north and central Georgia through tonight bringing threats for severe weather and flooding.

Severe Weather Potential:

SPC currently has most of north and portions of central GA, including the Atlanta metro, under a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather during for Today and Tonight. Our initial severe threat may be Wednesday afternoon as isolated storms could develop across North GA, though confidence in these storms developing is low as there won't be much forcing. The more likely timeframe for activity is from Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning as the frontal boundary pushes slowly south through the area. Models continue to show Capes in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, with 40-50 kts of effective shear, and low level helicity of 150-250 m2/s2. A major contributor to these strong shear values is a screaming southwesterly low level jet that develops after sunset. Storm modes will likely initially be a combination of discrete supercells and bowing segments out ahead of the front in the evening, before merging into an MCS with potentially embedded supercells overnight. All severe hazards would be possible in this setup, including damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Given the high shear, a strong tornado could not be ruled out across north GA. There are some factors that could lower the overall severe threat, like the morning convection across north GA limiting instability later in the day. Our confidence in the severe threat continues to increase, so stay tuned for updates!

Flooding Potential:

Our other concern is the potential for localized flash flooding mainly across North and portions of west central GA. Precipitable water values are forecast to approach or even exceed 2 ' late This afternoon into tonight, which would be above the 99th percentile for this time of year, The very high moisture content will contribute to efficient rain rates, with storm motion and the potential training of showers/storms only increasing flood potential. As a signal of this, the Weather Prediction Center has most of north and portions of central GA in a Level 2 of 4 risk for localized flash flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for the areas of highest concern, where a widespread 1.5 to 2.5 inches, and localized amounts of 4 inches or more, will lead to the potential for flooding of poor drainage and urban areas, as well as creeks and streams prone to flash flooding. Some of you may be wondering how we could have flooding during a significant drought, but the very dry/hard grounds can lead to more rapid runoff and a higher flood threat than soft/wet grounds. One thing the drought will have an influence on, is that main stem rivers are low, and will not be at risk for flooding during this event.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 352 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Front bringing unsettled weather in the short term is expected to have mostly cleared the area by Thursday evening. Some lingering instability main remain around portions of central Georgia with guidance showing 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE remaining just ahead of the front around sundown. A few storms may continue to linger across central Georgia, but the front should accelerate and clear the area quickly, bringing an end to impactful thunderstorms. Showers and some stratiform precip may remain.

Cold front will stall just north of the Gulf Coast going into the end of the week. A split flow pattern aloft will continue to converge over us into the weekend. This means several waves aloft will impact the area from both the polar jet to the north and subtropical jet to the south that will bring chances for continued rainfall as moisture is lifted over the front with best chances setting up over central Georgia. Widespread rain with some embedded storms are likely Saturday evening into Sunday as a cutoff low ejects out of the desert southwest, though getting the timing down on these is notoriously difficult for the model guidance. Rain chances linger into Monday as a broader wave in the northern branch of the jet pushes by, driving in another cold front that may bring some cooler air and clearing into the area once again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Mainly VFR ceilings this morning but could see some intermittent MVFR cloud cover between now and 15z. MVFR ceilings move in as precip moves into the ATL/AHN TAF sites this afternoon. Will see SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and tonight. VSBYS will be mainly VFR but will see some MVFR VSBYs in and around convective activity. Winds will stay mainly out of the SW but could see some gusty variable winds in and around storms. Wind speeds will be in the 5-10kt range this morning with speeds increasing into the 8-12kt range with gust to 20kt this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Confidence high on all elements.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Athens 83 63 78 53 / 40 100 60 0 Atlanta 83 64 76 55 / 40 100 60 0 Blairsville 71 57 70 45 / 90 100 20 0 Cartersville 80 60 76 49 / 80 100 40 0 Columbus 87 66 81 57 / 10 90 90 10 Gainesville 78 63 75 53 / 70 100 30 0 Macon 88 65 80 57 / 0 80 90 10 Rome 78 59 75 48 / 90 100 20 0 Peachtree City 85 63 78 52 / 30 100 70 0 Vidalia 89 68 82 63 / 0 30 80 20

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday morning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-030>035-041>048-052>059- 066>071-078-079.