textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

Key Messages

- Locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon/early evening across parts of the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains

- Localized heavy rain possible across the Rio Grande on Wednesday and Thursday

- Summerlike pattern with low chances of showers and storms Friday into the weekend

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Abundant tropical moisture continues to arrive across the local area for the rest of today into this evening. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to affect a good portion of south central Texas especially areas along and west Highway 281 (western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains). Some of these showers and storms could produce heavy downpours leading into localized flooding and due to that, WPC Day One ERO highlights the above mentioned areas under a marginal (1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall) category. In addition, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and up to 50 mph are likely such as in the past few afternoons. The northern Hill Country including the Austin metro and areas along and east of Highway 183 should stay dry for the most part with a passing shower or two late afternoon. The dry airmass over these locations come from a Saharan Air Layer that it is in place for the next day or so.

By mid to late evening, the shower and thunderstorm activity across the Rio Grande and nearby locations are expected to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

A similar weather pattern of today is forecast for Wednesday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting mainly the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau in the morning with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Some of these showers and storms could produce heavy rains that could potentially lead to localized flooding. Areas along and east of Highway 183 should stay mostly dry with low chances for rain. Wednesday's highs are forecast to range from the upper 70s across the southern Edwards Plateau to the lower to mid 90s along the I-35 corridor and coastal plains areas.

Continued showery with isolated thunderstorms along the Rio Grande on Wednesday evening, however, the activity should be less with dry breaks during the late evening and overnight periods. Lows remain in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For Thursday, the local area stays cloudy with highs in the lower 80S to lower 90s. A very moist airmass with pwats values over 2 inches is forecast to move across the local area from the Gulf waters. This translates into slight to chances for rain across south central Texas especially over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande. Some of storms could produce heavy rains at times leading to minor and localized flooding across low lying and poor drainage areas.

Drier air arrives on Friday into the weekend with a warming trend in store for Saturday and Sunday. Lingering moisture likely helps for isolated to scattered showers and a storm or two across the Rio Grande on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, expect dry weather for the upcoming holiday weekend. No expecting to issue any heat related products for the holiday weekend, however, stay hydrated and taking breaks from the heat as elevated heat index values of 100 to 107 are possible.

AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 6:25 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

An area of showers, with occasional lightning strikes, is moving northward along the Rio Grande. Showers should reach DRT within the next hour or two and last for a couple of hours. Visibility will decrease in rain, but ceilings should stay VFR. Low ceilings will develop later tonight and eventually drop to IFR. Rain showers will be possible again during the day Wednesday.

There is a small chance of showers reaching San Antonio this evening, but the probability is too low to include in the TAFs. MVFR ceilings are likely overnight in the San Antonio area, but Austin should remain VFR. Rain showers are possible from late morning to mid-afternoon Wednesday in the San Antonio area. There is a lower chance for rain in Austin.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 74 96 75 94 / 10 20 10 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 94 74 94 / 0 20 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 91 74 91 / 10 30 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 72 91 73 90 / 10 20 10 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 86 75 89 / 60 60 60 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 94 74 93 / 10 10 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 72 84 73 86 / 40 40 30 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 91 73 92 / 10 30 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 94 74 94 / 0 10 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 89 75 89 / 20 30 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 74 90 75 91 / 20 30 20 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.